ML050660057

Review of License Renewal Application for Brunswick Units 1 & 2, Brunswick County Schools, 2005, Integrated Planning for School and Community (Ipsac)

ML050660057
Person / Time
Site:	Brunswick
Issue date:	01/04/2005
From:	North Carolina State University
To:	Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
Hernandez S, NRR/DRIP/RLEP, 415-4049
References
Download: ML050660057 (12)

Text

1.

i BRUNSWICK COUNTY SCHOOLS INTEGRATED PLANNING FOR SCHOOL AND COMMUNITY (IPSAC)

POTENTIAL ELEMENTARY AND MIDDLE SCHOOL SITES PREPARED AND SUBMITTED BY OPERATIONS RESEARCHAND EDUCA TIONLABORA TORY' INSTITUTE FOR TRANSPORTATIONRESEARCHAND EDUCATION NORTH CAROLINA STATE UNIVERSITY JANUARY4, 2005 O /UJ. Lab

OVERVIEW This report outlines long range scenarios proposed by the Operations Research and Education (OR\\Ed.) Lab as a portion of the Integrated Planning for School And Community (IPSAC) program. These scenarios describe the optimal sites and attendance boundaries for two new elementary schools and one new middle school in Brunswick County. This report is designed to provide Brunswick County Schools with a system-wide perspective on school enrollment growth and facilitate a long-range building plan.

This report is a revision of a previous study on Potential Elementary School Sites dated November 30, 2004. The revisions include updated school capacities and the new middle school scenario.

There are four maps accompanying this report; please refer to them as necessary.

KEY CONCEPTS/ASSUMPTIONS The scenarios described in this report rely on several critical concepts and assumptions.

1. Planning Segments. Brunswick County is divided into 185 planning segments that are used to define school attendance boundaries. The planning segments were created jointly by the Lab and the school district for the 2003-04 IPSAC study and provide the finest useful resolution for analysis. Refer to the accompanying CurrentAttendance Boundaries map.

2. Geocoding. The Lab relied on the geocoded student database created for the 2003-04 IPSAC study. The planning segment populations were reconciled with the 2004-05 first-month ADM through a markup process.

3. Optimization. The OR/Ed. Lab uses an optimization algorithm that minimizes the student-weighted distance between the planning segment center and the impacted schools. The algorithm yields new school sites and attendance boundary solutions that are optimal system-wide.

4. Student Demographics. The optimization algorithm can also produce solutions yielding demographically balanced student populations, if so desired.

5. System-wide Perspective. The OR/Ed. Lab created these scenarios to address county-wide school capacity issues. The scenarios produced by the optimization algorithm can potentially impact every planning segment in the county.

OR/Ed. Lab, ITRE @ NCSU Centennial Campus Page I

6. System-wide Enrollment Projections. Using Brunswick County Residenit Live Births from 1995 to 2002 and six years of Month One ADMs, the Lab constructed the ten-year enrollment forecast by level. The Lab uses a uniformly weighted cohort survival ratio method for this forecast.

Enrollment Forecast

-'I-Kto$

-$tog

-It 12 M8 s2-0 5037

$120

=09 se4 W

34 84 3240 3319 336 3389 332 3315 3292 3258 0

274000 2701 2

24 2311 2749 26Z 4294 2M 7 206M 2572O2 1mO Mel 20N641 02 2x0-3 20044 200 2100U-H 200647 2067-03 2089 2001-10 2DID-11

=11<12 2012U1 201214 2014-1S

7. Allocation of Gain. The projected enrollments used here are calculated according to a revised Allocation of Gain (AOG) distribution. In preparation of the 2003-04 IPSAC study, the Lab met with Board members to negotiate the initial AOG. When the Lab received 2004-05 student data, the AOG was reconciled to the ADM gains experienced from 2003-04 to 2004-05. The AOG values are shown in Table 1 and the details of the initial AOG calculations are in the January 7,2004 IPSAC report.

r--------------------------------------

-~ -

Table ]:Allocationz gf Gain

~

Hipp School Area 2003-04 AOG 2004-05 AOG North Brunswick 38.6%

37.0%

§South Brunswick 26.8%

26.0%

LWest Brunswick 34.6%

37.0%o OR/Ed. Lab, ITRE @ NCSU Centennial Campus Page 2

OUT-OF-CAPACITY ANALYSIS Distributing the ten-year enrollment forecast by the Allocation of Gain yielded the Out-of-Capacity (OOC) worksheet shown here. The table is color-coded red to indicate when a school is over capacity. The revised 2004-05 capacities on the OOC table were supplied by Brunswick County Schools. Please note that the capacity valhes only affect the coloring of tfhe table; they '

do not affect the enrolment projections.

l Brunswrick County Schools Out-ol.Capacity Worksheet (Revised Capacities)

The building capacities used In this table are forK-12 populations.

Capacities Ioit ti I Putoieed Erde nt I

2D05l 2004.05 20054-6 i20007 2007.09 20089 2009-10 2010.11 201-12 12-1. 1 201314 F204-151 iemenetary Schools Uncdn E3em Betvile Bern Bdivia Bern Soutl'port Elern Jessie Mae Monroe E3em Supply Bern Union Bern Virginia WIliamson Bern Waccamraw (K-8)

Totals Middile Schools Leland Mid South Bnunswic Mid Sialote Ml Mid Totals High Schools North Brunswick High South BrunswIck i-gh Vest Brunswick High Totals Spedal Brunswick Learming Center SystemTotal 1 63J 610OJ 629

.-s675 l~8A::3

.79 4

-88 3

I 012 ;'-r1061~

( 763 I. 67 1 649 J65.4 [655 660 1667 1673 :678 i6153 I-691 697: -

1 689 1 600 1 6. 4 t 613 t

615

.624 1 635

[ 646 6551 664 679 6Im1 507 410 416 1 430 i

433 448 1 466 1 483 497 t.512.1'.,536 A<"551

.3 632 600 612

-,642 g

4 67 1>75; :78: !87llZ86*

8 726 626

.629 I.636 1 637 644 i 653 1 660 :

657 1 674 1 685

- 692 554

.574, o 595 tA r4647 rT-1657 i-X.709 S-f775-I r.833 F,, 885 :t *935 *l I 1T022 4-,1077.-

r 662 1 546 1 561 1 562 t 561 570 1 596 1 619 655 k-.7004. t^.25:zF;.759!

5802 1 5242 1 5335 i 5531 I 5569 5772 1.6046.[6287-1f6518 J"6753.:7103:m.7344c; 789 1 631 651)62i1613 675 !742 1 744 7831 789 1,:907-.. a'921r.t '900'. <

894.9- -885".

r.8951. j

.907 t.'938i.-1985;s

,986;i;,1014il 924 l-~ ~

949l 90 Nt :r-944.

. 939. t 932 -

i'940 1.949q*-.-

-973 N4-_0'-1..1010 w1031 2502 2487 2531 'I 2465 1 2446 2417 1 2450 2486.s2585 71 '2736 l2740x 845 779 805 831 I.'8501359. l A333 ~.h -1331 s t'.13231 g 1309 ; tI*134t7-;<' 13941, 3190 3107 3176 U. 3249 193299.4. 3319.t-S250

.3245

-1.':3222.A 3186 i':3287;i-3414zt 420 96 96 !

96 1 96 96 1

96 96 96 1 96 1 96 96 11914 10932 11138 i 11341 t 11409 11604 11842 1 12114-' 12422.)112771t 13226 '-13682.

A hequata Capacity E:-:J Two-year Warng 177u77 WdCapacity OR/~d. Laboatory kisttute for Tranlsportation Researchi end Edicadai MOlt Carolina state Unvers*t Decembe 15.2004 Although system-wide overcrowding will not occur for a number of years, there are several schools that must deal with capacity issues immediately. Specifically, Belville, and Virginia Williamson elementary schools, South Brunswick and Shallotte middle schools, and West Brunswick High School are currently over capacity. Of these schools, South Brunswick Middle school currently has the highest percentage over-utilization at about 15.0%.

OR/Ed. Lab, ITRE @ NCSU Centennial Campus Page 3

A long-range view reveals a need for elementary schools to relieve overcrowding in the North and West Brunswick areas. There are also long-range capacity problems for the middle and high schools. At the maximum extent of this analysis, the Lab has forecasted the middle schools (6-8 grades) will be over capacity by 326 students or 13% and the high schools will be over capacity by 224 students, or about 7%. The district should also recognize that the accuracy of any population forecast decreases with time.

OPTIMAL SCENARIOS FOR NEW ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS Based on the enrollment forecasts, the Lab has constructed scenarios for two new elementary schools opening by 2009-10. The scenarios depicted in the Two New Elementary Schools map are optimal school sites and attendance boundaries for two new elementary schools (capacity 500 each). The algorithm generatesx-andy-coordinates for the location of each new site. However, there is currently no mechanism in the algorithm to determine the suitability for construction of the optimal locations. The precise school sites generated by the algorithm should be considered the center of an area ofpotential locations. These areas are indicated by circles on the map.

Note thatfor both the elementary and middle school scenarios, Wfaccamawv has been considered in a K-SpIns 6-8 configuration.

Although the scenarios illustrated by the map are optimally derived by minimizing the system-wide travel distance, they present several geographical and logistical challenges the Lab must address before feasible scenarios are achieved. Specific planning segment assignment changes will be negotiated with the district.

Note that any changes in planning segment assignment can potentially alter the optimal nature of the original scenarios.

The optimal site for New Elementary School A is located east of the Shallotte River inlet. The Lab recognizes that this site may not be a feasible location for a new school due to the geography of the region. The challenges presented by this area can be addressed with specific options, such as determining a suitable new school site first and then optimizing attendance boundaries.

In addition, the optimal attendance boundary for New Elementary School A is split by the Shallotte River and thus may present significant transportation problems. There are 515 students projected for this new school in 2009-10, while Virginia Williamson and Supply are forecasted under their current capacity. Therefore, the re-assignment of planning segments may provide a more balanced enrollment for these schools.

The Lab strongly recommends the assignment offinal attendance areas occurs only after a suitable site is located and an opening date is determined.

OR/Ed. Lab, ITRE @ NCSU Centennial Campus Page 4

OPTIMAL SCENARIO FOR NEW MIDDLE SCHOOL The map One New Middle School shows the optimal site and attendance boundaries for a new middle school, capacity 750. The Lab used the maximum extent of the enrollment projections (2014-15) for this scenario. Notice that this map also indicates the current elementary, middle, and high school attendance boundaries as well as the projected 2014-05 enrollment at each middle school.

The final map Optimal School Sites shows the location of both elementary sites and the middle school site with the current elementary, middle, and high school boundaries.

The Lab again strongly recommends the assignment offinal attendance areas occurs only after a suitable site is located and an opening date is determined WHAT'S NEXT?

The scenarios presented here should be considered a starting point for determining suitable locations for new school sites. If these scenarios are accepted as templates for future building programs, further research may be required to provide scientific support for school site location and redistricting.

The OR/Ed. Lab hopes this information will enable Brunswick County Schools to develop a forward-looking and comprehensive building plan providing for the future growth of its student population.

Please feel free to contact the Lab with any questions you might have.

Michael A. Miller OR/Ed. Laboratory ITRE @ NCSU (919) 515-8717 mamilleralunitv.ncsu.edu OR/Ed. Lab, ITRE @ NCSU Centennial Campus Page 5

i' l

Brunswick County Schools Out-of-Capacity Worksheet (Revised Capacities)

The building capacities used in this table are for K-12 populations.

Capacities Month 1 Projected Enrollment 2004-05 2004-05 2005W6 1 2006-07 1 2007-08 1 2008-09 1 2009-10 1 2010.11 1 2011-12 1 2012-13 1 2013.14 1 2014-15 Elementary Schools Lincoln Elem

.Beiville Elem Bolivia Elem Southport Elem Jessie Mae Monroe Elem Supply Elem Union Elem

• Virginia Williamson Elem Waccamaw (K-8)

Totals

[ 663 610 1 629 l675

'684

'.'731

P790 i 842 3

889

'v.934 -

1012 lI 1061' 606

• 629 I I641-'.672.679".

-710)^':749

j.

784 j--815' 845;'

89i.

930 763 647 1649 654 1655 660 667 6731 678 683 691 i

697 6891 600 6041 613 615 624 635 646 16551 664 679 j689

_507 410 l

416 l

430 l

433 448 466 483 l 497 j

512 536-.

551 632 600 1 612 642.i647..'

677..-

715 7481-778.';807 856:--888 726 626 1 629 636 637 644 653 660 1 667 674 685 692 554 i-574.1-595-l-'64T7

.657.:[-'-,709,.775.

833.:-j

• 885 j-':.935 -

1022. -Ir1077 i

662 l

546 561 l

562 l

561

[

570 596 619 655 j!4700 2jW-725t4 ~759 5802 1 5242 l53351 5531 1 5569 1 5772 l.',-6046051.\\<6287'T.S65189tz'6753;>1

.7103

-.7344I Middle Schools Leland Mid South Brunswick Mid Shallote Mid Totals 789 631 1 651 1 621 1 613 1 600 1 614 1 631 1 675 1 742 1 744 1 783 l

2502 l 2487 1;tt2531*;1l 2465 l 2446 l 2417 J 2450 l 2486 li25851-11>t2-736m*r,274ottr2828F5l High Schools North Brunswick High South Brunswick High West Brunswick High Totals 845 I 779 1 805 1

831 J,

-850

[i G 858i-i 832 1 830 1

822 T 808 841.

893-i 1075 1048 1066 j

.1085t7 J'109&-

.1103j...1085s--1084.. ; 1078-J 1069 1095

'1128.

1270 1I t'306 x1332'9 41351

-z

.1359'j-1 1 3190 1 3107 l 3176 i '3249;0-l 73299-.'-- 3319.

3250

'^3245v;:l "43222rl 3186 Ii'3287v '3414j Special Brunswick Leaming Center System Total 420 1

96 1

96 1

96 1

96 I

96 1

96 1

96 1

96 1

96 1

96 8 96 l 11914 l 10932 l 11138-1 11341 l 11409 1 11604 1 11842 l.-12114:..124229v. ¢51277.1 -I132264 's136824

[

l Adequate Capacity l

l Two-yearWanming Out of Capacity OR/Ed. Laboratory Institute for Transportation Research and Education December 15, 2004 North Carollna State University OR/Ed. Lab, lITRE Q NCSU

Brunswick County Schools Current Attendance Boundaries 2004-05 School Sites Current ES Boundaries a

BSelv Elem a

BolM Elam as Joi se MoMWoe Ebem

=

Unrim Cle 1 SWtEbrn Supply Elm E UtnkmnEleqn 31 VfW~a WMamson Elem U72 Waw Elem ZECen Mud Planning Segments Current HS Boundary Current MS Boundary OR/Ed. Lab, ITRE 0 NCSU CentennIal Campus Name 30, 200

Brunswick County Schools Two New Elementary Schools Optimal Attendance Boundaries and Projected Enrollments 2009-10 Scenario ES 1 OptVI BEu4dfes l :%Wel Elem a

Boma EhM

=

J u

Mae Mom Ebm I 9lllElem l New Elm A E

New Elam EX Sart Elem fo Suppy Elem E:. Unbn Elem m WVrdaW~hnmon Elemn U. Warcauw Elem School Sites Elam High X

Mid Planning Segments Current HS Boundary Current MS Boundary OR/Ed. Lab, ITRE Q NCSU Centenlal COmpus Nvarber 30, 2004

Brunswick County Schools One New Middle School Optimal Attendance Boundaries and Projected Enrollments 2014-15 Scenario MS 2 School Sites I

ov m

Hgh

't W

Planning Segments Current HS Boundary Current MS Boundary Current ES Boundary OR/Ed. thb, rTRE 0 NCSW Cenitnnb campus Optimal MS Boundaries

- New Mm B 1t Shabotead MS SLA Bnw*ick lWd

-:J WacftwEPmd 29N Decefrber 2, 2004

Brunswick County Schools Optimal School Sites Current Attendance Boundaries Scenarios ES 1, MS 2 School Sites High Planning Segments Current HS Boundary Current MS Boundary OR/Ed. Lab, ITRE 0 NcSU Centenl amputs Deofre 29, 2004

P Brunswick County Schools Capacity Summary Plan Project Number 100-302 100-304 100-310 100-320 100-336 100-338

• 100-340 100-342 100-344 100-316 100-332 100-335 100-308 100-326 100-334 100-348 School Name BehliMe Elem Boliha Elementary Jessie M Monroe Elem Uncoln Primary Southport Elementary Supply Elementary Union Elementary V Wiiiiamson Elem Waccamaw School Leland viddle Shaliotte Middle South Brunswick Mid BrunswMck Leam Ctr North Brunswick High South Brunswick High West Brunswick High PK Elem Mid High K12 Capacity Capacity Capacity Capacity.Capacity.

18 606 0

0

,606 18 763 0

0

'763 36 507 0

0 507 54 663 0

0 663 36 689 0

0 689 0

632 0

0 632...

0 726 0

0

726 36 554 0

0 554.,;

0 454 208 o

662, 0

0 789 0

789.;:

0 0

924 0

924 0

0 789 0

I 789 0

0 170 250

.420 0

0 0

845 845..

0 0

0 1075 1075

0 0

0 1270 1270 Total Capacity 624 781 543 717 725 632 726 590 662 789 924 789 420 845 1075 1270 Core Capacity 791 740 719 903 746 791 886 660 708 1119 963 963 250 994 963 1621 Mobile Mobiles Capacity 20 60 0

20 40 60 80 0

40 20 0

120 20 140 20 20 Difference K-12 Capacity &

Ist Mo.

SY04-05 ADM (23) 116 97 53 89 32 100 (20) 116 158 (25)

(118) 324 66 27 (10) 1280 Total System-wide 198 5594 2880 3440

.11914 12112 13817 33 660 10932

-184 '

982 H:ACapacily Study 20052006\\Copyof Copy of gradeievelcapadty.xls 1111/2005 2:49 PM