ML19345C210

Public Version of Independent Assessment of Evacuation Times for Shoreham Nuclear Power Plant, Vol 9,prepared for FEMA

ML19345C210
Person / Time
Site:	Shoreham File:Long Island Lighting Company icon.png
Issue date:	06/30/1980
From:	Browner H, Cosby J, Sheppard W WILBUR SMITH ASSOCIATES
To:
References
NUDOCS 8012040141
Download: ML19345C210 (69)

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• VOLUN1E iX s

l AN INDEPEN' DENT ASSESSVENT  ! OF , EVACUATION TIVIES FOR l l l SHOREHAVI N!JC _ EAR POW ER P_A NT Prepared for FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY TERSONAL PRIVACY DELETED OR'IA TION INF IIG OM OF INE0R'4ATIO . WrYdut $ milk ancf Abacciales JUNE,1980 8012040 fy/ F

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   .                             ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The independent assessment of the evacuation times contained in;this . report was performed under the technical direction of d

John C. Cosby. Mr. William V. Sheppard, Vice President, was the 4 Principal-in-Charge of the Project. The pr;ncipal contributors to the individual volumes of the report were: Volume I - Procram Report - John C. Cosby Volume II - Bailly - James R. B an cro f t Volume III - Beaver Valley - Richard A. Day Volure IV - Enrico Fermi - Elbert L. Waters Volume V - Lime rick - George S. Coulter, Jr. Volume VI - Maine Yankee - Robert P. Jurasin Volume VII - Midland - James R. B ancro f t an d ' Elbert L. Waters Volume VIII - Millstone - Frank LaMagna Volume IX - Shoreham - E. Dean Browner j Volume X - Three Mile Island - Welbourne E. Thompson All reports were revised and edited by John C. Cosby and H. Dean Browner. All of the above perscnnel are permanent empicyees of Wilbur Smith and Associates. i 1 1

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TABLE OF CONTENTS JAGE' INTRODUCTION 1 Evacuation Time Assessment Versus Evacuation Plan 2 General Assumptions 3 Description of Site 6 Emergency Planning Area 6 General Regional Ch1.racteristics 7 Summary of Emergency Planning To Date 10 AREA CHARACTERISTICS 11 Topography 11 Meteorolog'f 11 Zone Concept 12 Demography 21 CONCEPT OF EVACUATION 38 Nc,tification 38 Public Response Time 39 Evacuation Link / Node Network 41 Special Transportation Requirements 54 Sector Evacuation 54 Long Island Sound 54 EVACUATION TIME ASSESSMENT 55 Normal Weekday 55 Summertime 55 Adverse Weather 58 Nighttime 58

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i ILLUSTRATIONS i FOLLOWS FIGUP.I PAGE 1 Study Site Location 8 2 Special Problem Areas 22 3 Special Problem Areas 22 4 Special Problem Areas 22 5 Evacuation Network '41

6 Evacuation . Network 41 4 7 Evacuation Network 41 I

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TA3ULATIONS TABLE PAGE 1 Summary of Projected Populations of the 27-County Designated Evacuation Area 23 2 Educational Facilities Within A Ten-Mile Radius of the Site 24 3 Hospitals Within Suffolk County Within A Ten-Mile Radius of the Site 27 4 Nursing Homes Within A Ten-Mile Radius of the Site 28, 5 Adult Resident Homes Within A Ten-Mile Radius of the Site 29 6 Recreational Facilities Within A Ten-Mile Radius 4 of the Site 31 7 Criminal Detention Centers 34 8 Industrial and Manufacturing Firms Within A Ten-Mile Radius of the Site 35 9 Network Description 42 10 Vehicles on Each Work, Normal Weekday 47 11 Evacuation Route Link Node Description, By Centroid 49 12 Evacuation Times, By Centroid 56

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, INTRODUCTION q An independent assessment of evacuation times around nine nuclear power plant sites was made for the Federal Emergency Manage =ent Agency. The results of this three-month study are con-l tained in ten volumes, as follows: Volume I - Program Report - E*?'auation Tire Assessment of Nine Nuclear Power Plant Emergency Planning Zones (EPI's) f l Volume II - Bailly Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time , Assessment 4 i Volume III - Beaver Valley Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation

Time Assessment Volume IV - Enrico Fermi Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation I

Time Assessment ! Volume V - Limerick Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation j

!                              Time Assessment Volume VI    - Maine Yankee Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation l

Time Assessment Volume VII - Midland Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time j Assessment "clm 1 VIII - Millstone Nuclear Pcwer Plant Evacuaticn Tire Assessment i l Volume IX - Shoreham Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Assessment Volume X - Three Mile Island Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Assessment In addition , an Executive Summary is also available. 4 I This volume contains the evacuation times assessment for ) Shoreham Nuclear Power Plant. The evaluation of four scenarios I and the discussion of evacuation of special problem areas are i I  !

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i s i included. The scenaries ' evaluated are those expected when evacuation takes place at night (the optimum tine from the , standpoint of evacuation time) , during a normal workday, during bad weather (the worst case condition) , and, where applicable,

        .the evacuation with summertime resident and transient population.

Evacuation Time Assessment Versus Evacuation Plan The assessment employs available demographic data and trans-portation f acility information to predict the public response time to an evacuation warning on the assumption that such a warn-ing is made within 15 minutes of an en-site nuciear incident warranting such emergency action. The assessment must provide for estimates of public response tire to these warnings , assembly of f amily and other groups , preparation for departure , travel time on the network including consideration of capacity limitations en the network possibly forming queues which add to delays , and clearance of the 10-mile l radius around the site . It must consider the evacuation of special probler areas and grcups. These would include schools, nurseries, nursing and re tirement homes , hospitals, pena'l f acilities , beaches and recreational areas , and other activities which may provide periodic or seasonal concentrations of people. Population groups without access to their own transportation or unable to provide the special transportation facilities required for evacuation must be included in the evacuation time assessment. Evacuation time assessment rethodology combine 9 selected techniques of traf fic. management and planning, land use planning and operational analysis. Because some conditions prevailing during an evacuation are not well documented, modifications to

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i some established principles may be required to meet evacuation requirements . Assumptions may be required ' _ieu of well formu-lated relationships because of the highly specialized problems being addressed. These assumptions must be founded on best pro-fessional judgement and/or extrapolation from existing knowledge. I The assu=ptions must be specifically identified. The bases upon l which the assumptions are founded should be appropriately dis-cussed. r l Evacuation time assessments contain basic methodology common to evacuation plan development. However, the assessment is not an evacuation . plan. The major distinction between the assessment and a plan is the extent to which the elements have been coordi-j nated with all participant agen cies and jurisdictions . Fcr i I example, the assessment may assume that a specific traffic management element is established to cptimize traffic cperations at a specific location along an evacuation network. The fe asi-bility of such an element in the assessment would be based upon established technica l principles. Ecwever, the element would not be coordinated with specific law enforcement egencies to t establish what agency would exercise the element control and ! managerent nor identify the type and number of personnel to be ! require d . The study time al ctted makes such cocrdination in-i , i possible. The assessment must identify what is required for i i l the evacuation time to be realized, and assume that such an  ! j element would be implemented. General Assumptions In the assessment of evacuation times , certain general assumptions were mandatory. More important of these are summa-rized as folloes: l 1. Emergency evacuatzon of the general public from the EPZ t l will be performed largely from the here by the family as a united l l l i

V group. - This assumption is prersced by the following quote: III

                   . people will not evacuate an area, regardless of the danger, i

if their family group is separated, unless they know that members of their f amily are safe, -accounted for, and that arrangements 3 - have been made for them to evacuate. " It was felt that this psychological pressu:e is so prevalent and strong that uhe. above assumption appears to be justified. In addition, to assure that segments of the family are safe and accounted for would have required the establishment of shelter locations and the develop-ment of a shelter support plan. In view of the next assumption and due to the short ' tire period of the study, this was not done.

2. Public use of shelters in previous mass evacuatica exper-ience related to natural disasters appears to be a very small percentage of total evacuees. Examples cited in literature include : (2 ) - "In a California flood, only 9,260 out of 50,000 persons evacuated registered in Ehe 38 Red Cross shelters; during Hurricane Carla, 75 percent of the evacuees went to other than public shelters; and dr. ring Hurricane Betsy, only 20 percent requested assistance.. Generally, shelter centers are used only if nothing else is available or if one cannot financially care for himself. " -In this evacuation time assessment study, it was assumed that the pr6 dominant tra f fi c , after leaving the IC-mile EP2, wenc diverse routes rather than to a shelter destination.

Therefore, the evacuation time assessment ended at the EPZ boundary. An analysis of route capacities and service levels of highway f acilities beyond that boundary was made to assure , that delays or problems were unlikely to occur. 1 d (1) EVACUATION RISKS - AN EVALUATION, U.S. Environmental Pro-tection Agency, Of fice of Radiation Programs , EPA-520/6 002, June , 1974, p. 49. (2) Ibid., p. 52.

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3. Experience gained in a large range of evacuations indi-cates that private vehicles (3) " . . . were the predominant mode for evacuation (more than 99 percent) . Population density ranged from approximately 15 persons per square mile to 20,000 persons per square mile . " It was assumed that this was applicable to this time assessrent study. It was further assumed that persons without private vehicle transportation would be provided, at their ' elephone request, adequate transportation in high occu-pancy vehicles (HOV's) . The additional vehicle volumes on the network would therefore be small, could be affected during the general public evacuation time, and would not a f fe ct the computed evacuation times of the general population.

4. It has been observed that not all persons will evacuate th e IP Z . "In many cases, even when presented uith a grave threat, people refuse to evacuate."(4) This source centinues , "Results of this study indicate that approximately six percent' of the total population refused to evacuate. Other reports indicate this figure can run as high as 50 percent. There is .so reascn to believe that because the disaster agent is radiation rather than some other agent . . . will provide sufficient motivation to leave. Rather the opposite viewpcint should be taken--people well hesitate to leave."I I It is believed that a majority of this hesitance is based on fear of exposing their property to looting and vandalism. Notwithstanding this evidence , this time assessment study assumed that all persons evacuate.

5. It has been assumed that the traf fic ne twork within the EPZ has been isolated so that no through traffic is permitted to enter it within 15 minutes after the evacuation warning has been issued.

(3) Ibid., p. 52. - (4) Ibid., p. 48. (5) Loc. ci t . . 6. Traffic =anagement -by appropriate law enforcement officers will be performed at selected intersections where evacuation traffic flow is given priority.

              '7. All persons in the EPZ have been provided, in advance, sufficient information regarding the assigned evacuation route from their place of residence (referred to as the  centroid" in the report) .

8. It was assumed that the public response to an evacuation order can be defined as a combination of up to four categories of statistically distributed responses : receive warning, leave werk, travel hcme, and evacuate home. It was assumed that these responses are time-distributed following a normal distribution cu rve . The details and applications of this assumption are =cre fully discussed later in this report.

Additional assumptions were made which are discussed in the body of this report. Description of Site The Shoreham Power Nuclear Power Station is owned and will be operated by the Long Island Lighting Company (LILCO). Shoreham is a single-unit station located on a 499 acre site on the north shore of Long Island in the Town of Brookhaven, Suffolk County, New York. The Shoreham reactor is a boiling water reactor rated for operation at 2,436 MW(t), and a net electrical output of 820 MW(e). Emergency klanning Area The Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) is a 10-mile circle around the plant site. -However, the 10-mile radius is not a l l _ . . , . . ~.-_

s distinguishable or a describable location on the ground. The Emergency Planning Area follows the 10-mile radius as close as possible.but is bounded by some topographic feature on the ground thatican be identified. These identifiable landmarks are roadways, rivers, railroads, and etc. A descr' 7n of-the Emergency Planning Area is as follows: Seginning at Port Jefferson Harbor on the north shore, southeasterly along Route 112 (Main Street of Port Jefferson) to Route 347, southwesterly along Route 347 to Jayne Blvd., southerly along Jayne Blvd. to Town Road, southeasterly along Old Taven Road to Route 112, southeasterly along Route 112 to Route 25, south along Route 112 to Long Island Expressway, easterly along Long Island Expressway to Yaphank-Patchogue Road, southwesterly along Yaphank-Patchogue Road to.Long Island Railroad, easterly along Long Island Railroad o Yaphank Avenue, south on Yaphank j Avenue to Gerard Road, southeasterly along Gerard Road to Sunrise Highway (Route 27), easterly along Sunrise Highway to Route 51 (Riverhead Road), northeasterly along Route 51 to a point south of the Village of Riverhead, northerly to Water Street on the west edge of Riverhead, northwesterly along Water Street to 4 Route 58 (Old Country Road), easterly along Route 58 - to Roanoke Avenue, northwesterly along Roanoke Avenue to Middle Road, easterly along Middle Road to Northville Turnpike to Doctors Path, northwesterly along Doctors Path to Sound Avenue, easterly along Sound Avenue to Pennys Road, northwesterly along Pennys Road to the

,                    north shore, then, westerly along the north shore to the point of beginning.

General Recional Charactaristics The plant site is over 30 miles east of the Nassau/Suffolk County Line. In this area of Long Island some areas are densely developed and other areas by comparison are sparsely developed. The areas that are sparsely developed would include the Brookhaven National Laboratory and the Grumman Peconic River Airport.

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           ! snt Location - The plant site is located on the north shore of Long Island near Wading River. There is approximately 160 square miles of land area within the 10-mile-radius. The north half of the 10-mile radius would all be in Long Island Sound.

Figure-1 shows the geographic location of the plant site. Poculation Distribution - The plant site is entirely within Suffolk County. The western part of the 10-mile circle is in the Town of Brookhaven and the eastern part is in the Town of Riverhead. Route 25a extends in an enst-west direction from 1 to 2 miles south of the north shore of Long Island. The land area between Route 25a and Long Island Sound is densely populated throughout the area west of the plant site. The other densely popu'.ated area is the westernmost part of the 10-mile radius between Route 25 and Route 25a. The 1985 winter time population projections are approximately 139,000. Summertime projections are approximately 160,000. Maior Transportation Facilities - This portion of Long Island has a limited roadway system which greatly affects an evacuation. There are only 4 primary east-west roadways. Route 25a generally parallels the north shore approximately 1 to 2 miles south of Long Island Sound. This route is an extension of Port Jefferson Highway, Route 347. Route 25a extends in a westerly direction through the Villages of Port Jefferson Station and Port Jefferson. Route 347 extends in a southwesterly direction from Port Jefferson Station. Route 347 is a four-lane divided roadway and Route 25a is a two-lane roadway. Route 25 extends in an east-west direction north of an imaginary line through ths center of the island. This is a better-than-average primary roadway with good alignment and paved shoulders.

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e \\\ 3 V v STUDY SITE LOCATION EVACU ATION TIME ASSESSMENT SHOREHAM Oi,As hi/4 and.dssweales noune ,

The Long Island Expressway, Route 495, is a six-lane divided freeway south of an imcginary line through the middle of the island and extends on the part to a point just west of the Village of Riverhead. The other major east-west roadway is the Sunrise Highway, Route 27, that extends along the southern part of the island. There are several north-south roadways intermittently spaced in the 10-mile radius. _The most prominent north-south route is the William Floyd Parkway. This is a four-lane divided roadway almost due south of the plant site that connects Route 25a, Route 25, Long Island Expressway and the Sunrise Highway. The Parkway is located on a west side of the area occupied by the Brookhaven National Laboratory. Wading River Man.r Road, Route 66, is located between the Brockhaven National Laboratory and the Grumman Aircraft Engineering Corporation and connects all four east-west roadways. Route 21, Rocky Point Road, connects the Villages of Rocky Point, Middle Island, and Yaphank. Route 112 connects the Villages of Port Jefferson, Coram, Medford Station and Patchogue. Parks - The Wildwood State Park is located approximately 4 miles east of the plant site between Route 25a and the north shore. This is a large state park with over 500 paved parking spaces, over 100 c mp sites and numerous picnic tables. There is a beach area connected with the state park. Beaches - The beaches along the north shore are relatively i small. An example of the:e are the Shoreham Beach which is served by a two-lane access road and approximately 85 parking spaces at the water's edge. There are various landings along the north shore but the activities at these locations are not , of major significance. i 1 1

! Support Organizations - The following agencies are support-ing the emergency evacuation plan for the Shoreham Nuclear Pl ant: Department of Emergency Prepardness: Suffolk County Police; office of the Sheriff; Department of Health Services; Department of Fire Safety and Rescue; School Coordinarors: Department of Transportation; Department of Social Services; Department of Buildings and Grounds; and, Department of Public Works. All of the above agencies play an important role during a major radiation incident. All have participated in the planning process and all have specific responsibilities during an emergency. Summary of Emergency Planning To Date The licensee is Long Island Lighting Company. The evacuation plan has been the responsibility of the Department ,

!          of Emergency Prepardness, County of Suffcii.                A preliminary plan has been worked out in detail. Public Hearings and discussions between agencies involved have been continuing for sometime. The responsibilities of each agency involved 4

has been specified in the document " Emergency Plan for Major Radiation Incidents". It is our understanding that a final evacuation plan-is to be submitted by the end of 1980, i h

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ARIA CHARACTERISTICS The area characteristics were obtained by field inspection, by discussions with the Licensee and representatives of Suffolk County, and'from the preliminary evacuation plan. Tococranhv

              *ae topography of Long Island will have little, if any, effect on any airborne radioactive material. The island is relatively flat to rolling with large bodies of water on each side of the island. The sand hill areas along the north shore has elevation differences of up to 200 feet. There are certain other areas where the elevation differences may be 50 to 100 feet but for the most part, the island is relatively flat.

Meteoroloev Over 30 percent of tne time the wind is offshore. This meanc that any airborne radiation material would be carried out over Long Island Sound. The predominant prevailing wind direction effecting land area is in the southeast quadrant. Approximately 38 percent of the time the wind direction is toward these comparatively low population density segments. Approximately 25 percent of the time the wind is in the southwest quadrant. Temperature - The temperature of the air varies from a minimum of near 0 degrees to a maximum of 98 degrees. The - mean number of days ir which the temperature would exceed 90 degrees during the ye.ar is 8. .he mean number of lays in which the minimum temperature would be O degrees is O days. The mean daily maximum temperature is 60.7 degrees and the mean daily minimum temperature is 43.6 degrees during the year. r

Percioitation - Rainfall varies from approximately 3 to approximately 4 1/2 inches per month for a yearly average rainfall of slightly over 45 inches. The greatest monthly rainfall recorded.is approximately 12 1/2 inches in August, 1954. The greatest daily rainfall of approximately 6 1/2 inches occurred on September 11, 1954. The mean annual snowfall'is 26.7 inches. Over the last 30 years the snowfall has varied from approximately 9 inches to a maximum of 57 inches:for the year. Zone ConcepA In the event of an incident occurrence which weald recuire evacuation, potential evacuees cannot be told to evacuate by compass direction. Therefore, easily identifiable physical boundaries, to which affected individuals can relate, must be established. Figures 2, 3, 4 and 5 indicates these established

enes, each cf which has been assigned an alphabetical designation to facilitate discussion.

Each zone has from one to five centroids. The centroids are located so that large zones and heavy populated areas are subdivided whlch provides for even distribution of traf'ic over the roadway syster, population was divided by available information and use of local maps. The physical limits of the 10-mile radius area have been i adjusted to accommodate certain integral areas. These zone designations with a description of their boundaries follows: Zone A - Zone A includes the plant site. The north boundary is the Long Island shoreline; the east boundary is Wading River; the south boundary is North Country Road; and, the west boundary is Woodville Road. Only one centroid is used for this zone. I l Zone B - The north boundary of Zone B is North Country Road;.the east boundary is the William Floyd Parkway; the south boundary is Whiskey Road; and, the west boundary is Ridge Road. Thiv

one is divided into three centroid areas; one for the area north of Route 25a, one for Leisure Village area, and one for the remainder of the zone.

Zone C - The north boundary of Zone C is North Country Road; the east boundary is Wading River Manor River Road; the south boundary is Route 25; and, the west boundary is the William Floyd Parkway. This zone has two centroids; one for the area north of Route 25a, and one for the area south of Route 25a. Zone D - The northeast bouadary of Zone D is North Country Road and Parker Road; the south boundary is Route 25; and, the west boundary is Wading River Manor Road. Two centroids are used for this zone; one for the north half and one for the south half. Zone E - The north boundary of Zone E is the north shore of Long Island; the east boundary is Hulse Landing Road; and, the southwect boundary is North Country Road and Parker Road, anc along Wading River in the northwest corner. Three centroids are used for this zone; one for the western portion and one for the eastern portion of the heavily populated area, and one for the development along 4 Route 25a.

         'i Zone l' - This zone coverc = heavily populated area between i                         Route 25a and Long Island Sound, and from Woodville Road on the east to Pipe Stove Hollow l

on the west. Because of the heavy population this zone is divided into 5 subzones with one. centroid each.

                  .Subzone F-1     This area is the eastern part of Zone F with Woodville Road on the east and Broadway on the west.

Sub:one F The north boundary of this area is the north shore; the east boundary is Broadway; the south boundary is Route 25a; and, the west boundary is the undeveloped area between Rocky Point

and Sound Beach which is just west of Rocky Point Landing.

Subzone'F The north boundary of this area is Rocky Point; the east boundary is the undeveloped area between Rocky Point and Sound Beach; the south boundary is Route 25a; and, the north-west boundary is Echo Avenue. i

                  .Subzone F The north boundary of this area is North Country Road and Rocky Point Road; the southeast boundary is Echo Avenue; and, the southwest boundary is Pipe Stove Hollow.

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s Subzone F The north boundary of this area is the north shore; the east boundary is the area between Rocky Point and Sound Beach near Rocky Point Landing; the south boundary is Rocky Point Road and North Country Road; and the west boundary is , Pipe Stave Hollow. Zone G - Beginning in the northwest corner.of this zune, the boundary extends easterly along Route 25a to Ridge Road, southerly on Ridge Road to Whiskey Road, southerly on the William Floyd Parkway across Route 25 to Longwood Road, westerly on Longwood Road to Smith Road, northerly on Smith Road to Route 25, westerly on Route 25 to Route 21, northerly on Route 21 to Miller Place-Yaphank Road, northerly , .along Miller Place-Yaphank Road to Route 25a. This zone requires five centroids; one for the area west of Route 21, one for the area between Wading River Hollow and Ridge Road, one for the area between Wading River Hollow and Route 21, one for the area between Ridge Road and William Floyc Parkway and one south of Route 25. Zone H - The north boundary of Zone H is Route 25; the east boundary is Route 66; the south boundary. is the Long Island Expressway; and, the west boundary is the William Floyd Parkway. Three centroids are required; one for the subdivision in the northern part of the zone, one for the Laboratory area and one for the southeast part of the zone. 1 i

Zone I - The north boundary of Zone-I is Route 25; the east boundary is Edwards Avenue; the south boundary is the Long Island Expressway; and, the west boundary is Route 66. Two centroids are required; one western and one for the eastern part of the zone. Zone J - The north boundary _of Zone J is the north shore; the east boundary is Edwards Avenue; the south boundary is Route 25; and, the west boundary is Hulse Landing Road and Route 25a. Three centroids are used; one for the area north of Route 25a, one for the area between Routes 25 and 25a and one for the Wildwood State Park. Zone K - Beginning at the intersection of Routes 347 and 112, the boundary of this zone extends in a northeasterly direction along Route 347 to Crystal Brook Hol' low, then northerly along Crystal Brook Hollow to the north shore, easterly along the north shore to Pipe Stave Hollow, southeasterly along Pipe Stave Hollow to Route 25a, easterly along Route 25a to Miller Place Road, south-easterly along .viller Place-Yaphank Road to Route 21, southerly along Route 21 to Route 25, westerly along Route 25 to Route 112, northwesterly along Route 112 to Old. Town Road, northwesterly along Old Town Road to Terryville Road, northerly along Terryville Road to Route 347, and northeasterly along Route 347 to the beginning point. This is , a large heavily populated zone which has been divided into 5 subzones which are as follows:

Subzone K Beginning at the intersection of Routes 347 and 112, southeasterly along Canal Road to Mt. Sinai Avenue , northerly along Mt. Sinai Avenue to Route 25a, easterly along Route 25a to Miller Place Road, southerly along Miller Place Road to Canal Road extending further south along Mt. Sinai-Coram Road to Route 25, westerly along Route 112 to Old Town Road, along Old Town Road for 4,400 feet, northerly' along an unidentified road to Pine Road, easterly along Pine Road to Route 112, northwesterly along Route 112 to the point of beginning. Five centroids were used for this large popation; one centroid is locatef near Route 25a, one jus north of Canal Road, one near Route 112, one near Ocean Drive and one near Coram-Mt. Sinai Road. Subzone K The northeast boundary of this area is Miller Place-Yaphank Road; the east boundary is Route 21; the south boundary is Route 25; and, the northwest boundary is Mt. Sinai Coram Road and Miller Place Road. Only one centroid is used. Subzone K Beginning at the intt.=ection of Routes 347 and 112, extend in southeasterly direction along Route 112 to the intersection of Pine Road, westerly along Pine Road to an unidentified road, southerly along the unidentified road to Old Town Road, northwesterly'along Old Town Road to Terryville Road, northerly along Terryville Road to Route 347, north-easterly along Route 347 to the point of beginning. Only one centroid is used. Sub:ene K The north boundary of this sub:ene is Route 3C/ and Route 25a; the east boundary is Mt. Sinai Avenue, and, southwest boundary is Canal Road. Only one centroid is used. Sub:ene K The north boundary of this sub:one is the north shore; the east boundary is Pipe Stave Hollow; the south boundary is Route 25a; and, the west boundary is Crystal Brook Hollow. Only one centroid e is used. Zone L - Beginning in the northwest corner at intersection of Routes 25 and 112, easterly along Route 25 to Route 21, southerly along Route 21 and across the Long Island Expressway to the Long Island Railroad, westerly along the Long Island Railroad to Patchogue-Yaphank Road, northeasterly along Patchogue-Yaphank Road to the Long Island Expressway, westerly along the Long Island Expressway to Bellert Road; northerly along Bellort Road to Mill Road, northwesterly along Mill Road to the point of beginning. Two centroids are required; one for Gordon Heights north of Granny Road and one for Siegfield Park north of Mill Road. i Zone M - Beginning in the northwest co:aer at rhe interse'etion of Routes 43 and 21, easterly along Route 25 to the intersection of Smith Road, southerly along Smith Road to Longwood Road, easterly along Longwood Road to the William Floyd Parkway, southerly tiong William Floyd Parkway across the Long Island Express-way to the Sunrise Highway, westerly along Sunrise Highway to Gerard Road, northwesterly along G.erard Road to Route 21, northerly along Route il to the point of beginning. The zone requires five centroids; one north Longwood Road, one near Walters School and Route 21, one at the eastern area near William Floyd Parkway, one west and one east of Carmans River and south of L.I. Expressway. Zone N - The norrhern boundary of Zone N is Long Island Expressway; the eastern boundary is Route 66; the southern boundary is the Sunrise Highway; and, the western boundary is the William Floyd Parkway. This zone requires'four zones; one for the area north of the Brookhaven Airport that ties into William Floyd Parkway, one south of tue Airport that ties into William Floyd Parkway, one' east of the Airport that ties to Sunrise Highway and one for the eastern part of the zone. Zone 0 - Beginning at the intersection of the Long Island Expressway and Route 66, northeasterly along the Long Island Expressway to Old Country Road (Route 58), easterly along Old Country Road to

to Mill Road, southeasterly along Mill Road to Route 25, westerly along Route'25 to the east boundary of Brookhaven, south-westerly along the boundary of Brookhaven to Route 51, southwesterly along Route 51 to the Sunrise Highway, westerly along the Sunrise Highway to Route 66, and northerly along Route 66 to the point of beginning. Three centroids are used for this very large zone; one for the western portion, one-for the center portion that ties to Sunrise Highway and one for the northeast portion that ties to Route 25. Zone ? - The northern boundary of this zone is the north shore; southeasterly along Pennys Road to Sound Avenue, westerly along Sound Avenue to Doctors Path, southeasterly along Doctors Patch to North-ville Turnpike, southwesterly along Northville Turnpike to Middle Road, westerly along Middle Road to Roanoke Avenue, southeasterly along Roanoke Avenue to Route 58, westerly along Route 58 to Route 25, westerly along Route 25 to Edwards Avenue. This zone has four centroids; one for the western portion that ties to Sound Avenue, one for the southern portion that ties to Middle Road, one for the eastern portion that ties to Middle Road and one for the area north of Sound Aver.ue. Zone 0 - The northern boundary of Zone Q is the north shore; the eastern boundary is Crystal Brook Hollow; i the southern boundary is Route 347; and, the

s western boundary is Route 112 and the Port Jefferson Harbor. Two centroids are used; one north and one south of East Broadway. Zone R - The northeastern boundary of Zone R is Mill Road; the eastern boundary is Bellport Road; the southern boundary is the Long Island Expressway;

;                      and, the western boundary is Route 112. This zone has three centroids; one north and one south of Granny Road, and one for the large subdivision on Horse Block Road. The latter is outside the
                      '10-mile limit.

Zone S - The western boundary of Zone S is the eastern boundary of Brookhaven; from the intersection of the eastern boundary of Brookhaven with Route 25 easterly along Route 25 to Mill-Road, northwesterly along Mill Road to Water Street, southeasterly along Water Street to a point near West Main Street, southwesterly direction to an intersection with Route 51 west of Wildwood Lake, then southwesterly along Route 51 to the intersection with the east boundary of Brookhaven. Only one centroid is used. Demography , A need for accurat, population projections is essential to the assessment of an evacuation plan. A design year of 1985 was selected which would be a realistic representation of the resident population at the time the power plant becomes operational. 4 I I

                                                                         )

l In 1985, population estimates were adjusted to reflect seasonal variations, since the summer population is considerably higher than the year-round population. Population data is summarized by zone in Table 1 and was provided by the Long Island Lighting Company. Vehicle occupancv - The population projections reflect the number of people who would be requested to exit a zone. Under evacuation conditions the persons per vehicle can be expected to be between 3 and 4 persons. However, predicated on a dem graphic analysis LILCO provided to the County, a value of 3.0 had been utilized for the residential community. Area Schools - The basic assumption of this evaluation is that school children would be sent home from school and be evacuated with their families. In the event of an incident immediate responsive actions on the part of school admin;strators and faculty would be required. Students would return home, as expeditiously as possible, by their customary mode of transportation. A listing of schools within the 10-mile radius are given in Table 2 Hospitals - There are 4 hospitals within the 10-mile radius of the site. The hospitals, their location, distance and direction from the site, and the bed capacity is given in Table 3. Nursine Homes - There are 7 nursing homes within the 10-mile radius. The name of the home, the address, and their capacity are given in Table 4. Adult Resident Homes - There are 8 adult resident homes within the 10-mile radius. Their names, addresses, and capacity are given in Table 5. Figures 2 through 4 depict the Area Schools, Hospitals, Nursing Homes and Adult Resident Homes within the EPZ. N e

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i j Table 1

SUMMARY

OF PROJECTED POPCLATIONS OF THE 27 COUNTY DESIGNATED EVACUATION ARIAS 1985 J EVACUATION AREA WINTER SUMMER A 4,219 5,419 3 3,750 3,750 C 3,446 5,296 D 359 609 E 3,495 4,895 F1 2,717 3,517 F2 5,333 6,733 F3 5,047 5,547 F4 5,236 5,436 F5 3,181 7,801 G 7,843 S,343 H 1,514 2,139 I 1,448 1,648 J 2,165 4,615 El 17,269 17,369 K2 8,146 8,146 K3 8,944 8,944 K4 2,762 2,762 K5 2,784 3,384 L 6,573 7,223 M 6,993 7,593 N 11,443 11,543

O 4,337 5,037 P 3,312 5,512 O 7,605 7,930 R 6,905 6,905 S 1,713 1,863 .

TOTAL 138,539 159,959 t _ - . --- - - _D

Table 2 I;DUCATIONAL PACILITIES WITilIN A TEN-MILE RADIUS OF Tile SITE DISTA'3CE (MILE) AND NAME LOCATION ENROLLMENT DIRECTION PROM SITE SCllOOL DISTRICT Shoreham-Wading River Route 25A 252 III 1. 2 S Shoreham-Wading River liigh School (Pb) Wading River Miller Ave. Elementary Miller Avenue 500 1.4 WSW Shoreham-Wading River (Pb) Sho reham Wading River Cooperative Northside Road 40 1.4 ENE Private School Play School (Pr) Wading River (2 shifts) Little Flower flouse of No. Wading River 128 1.6 ENE Private Schooi Providence (Pr) Rd., Wading River Wading River Elementary Manor Road 388 1.6 SE Shoreham-Wading River (Pb) Wading River

Driarcliff Rd. School Briarcliff Road 314 2.0 W Shoreham-Wading River

  %(Pb)                           Shoreham
  ' North Country Road            North Country Road             535                6.4 WSW                            Miller Place.

School (Pb) Miller Place Shoreham-Wading River Randall Road 503 2.4 SW Shoreham-Wading River Middle School (Pb) Shoreham Joseph A. Edgar School North Country Road 1138 3.6 WSW Rocky Point (Pb) Rocky Point Rocky Point Jr./Sr. Rocky Point-Yaphank 1210 4.2 WSW Rocky Point Iligh School (Pb) Rd., Rocky Point '! Rocky Point Elementary Rocky Point-Yaphank 894 4.2 WSW Rocky Point School (Pb) Rd., Rocky Point Ridge School (Pb) Ridge Road, Ridge 706 4.2 SSW Middle Island (

Table 2 (Continued) DISTANCE (MILE) AND NAME LOCATION ENROLLMENT DIRECTION PROM SITE SCllOOL DISTRICT Riley Ave. Elementary (Pb) Riley Avenue 478. 6.4 ESE Riverhead stiverhead Miller Place School (Pb) North Country Road 738 6.8 W Miller Place Miller Place 1

   ' Miller Place Iligh             Miller Place Road                999                       6.8-WSW            Miller Place School (Pb)                     Miller Place Sound Beach School (Pb)-        North Country Road               650*                      6.8 W              Miller Place .

Miller Place Longwood Jr./Sr. Longwood Road 1,333 7.0 SSW Middle Island I:igh School (Pb) Middle Island Middle Island Rocky Point-Yaphank 1,295 7.0 SSW Middle Island Middle School (Pb) Rd., Middle Island

  / Nest Middle Island              Swezey Lane                    1,038                       7.4 SW             Middle Island pchool (Pb)                       Middle Island South Manor Elementary          South Street                     304                       7.8 SSE            South Manor (Pb)                            Manorville South Manor Middle               Daton Avenue                     600**                     9.0                South Manor School (Pb)                      Manorville i    Mount Sinai School ' (Pb)       North Country Road               774                       8.2 WSW            Mount Sinal Mount Sinai Mount Sinal Middle               North Country Road               655*                      8.2 WSW            Mount Sinai
. School (Pb)                      Mount Sinal Roanoke Avenue                   Roanoke Avenue                   442                       8.6 E              Riverhead Elemen ta ry (Pb)                Riverhead Coram School (Pb)                Mount Sinai, coram               831                      8.8 SW              Middle Island

Table 2 (Continued) DISTANCE (MILE) AND NAME LOCATION ENitOI.I.MI:NT DIiti:CTION FROM SITE SCIIOOL DISTRICT Charles E. Walters Walters Drive 691 8.8 SSW Middle Island Elementary (Pb) Yaphank Comsewogue Sr. High 566 Dicycle Path 1,479 9.4 WSW Comsewogue School (Pb) Port Jef ferson Sta. Port Jefferson Scraggy 11111 Hoad 965 10.0 W comsewogue Elementary (Pb) Port Jef ferson Sta. John-F. Kennedy J r. 200 Ilayne Blvd. 936 10.0 WSW .Comsewogue Iligh School (Pb) Port Jef ferson Sta. Clinton Avenue 140 Clinton Avenue 619 10.0 WSW Comsewogue Elementary (Pb) Port Jefferson Sta. Comsewogue. Elementary (Pb) 51 Terryville Road 616 10.0 WSW Comsewogue , i TOTAL: 22,051 ea e 8 (1) Grades 9 through 11 only for 1975-76 school term; g rade 12 added in 1976. (2) Shoreham-Wading River liigh School and Hocky Point Elementary School opened in the Fall of 1975. The enrollments shown ' for these two schools are for the 1975-76 school term. All other school enrollments are for the 1974-75 school term. Scheduled conpletion date, 9/79.

   **  Scheduled conpletion date, 9/79 - enrollment will only be 350.

(Pr) Private Schools (Pb) Public Schools  ! Data Sources: llagstrom Atlas, Suffolk, County, N.Y. Franklin Factbook - A Guide to Long Island U.S.G.S. Maps Le tters from and Personal Communication with Educational Pacilities County Catalog - Suf folk County

t Table 3 HOSPITALS IN SUFFOLK COUNTY WITHIN A TEN-MILE RADIUS OF THE SITE DISTANCE AND DIFICTION BED HOSPITAL FROM SITE CAPACITY Brookhaven National Laboratory 6 mi. -S Research Hospital Hospital William Floyd Parkway Upton, New York 11973 345-3604 Central Suffolk Hospital 10.3 mi. - E 150 1300 Roanoke Avenue Riverhead, New York 11901 4 369-6000 J. T. Mather .v.emorial Hospital 10 mi. -W 203 North Country Road Port Jefferson, New York 11777 473-1320 St. Charles Hospita' 'O.5 mi. - W 271 200 Belle Terre Road Port-Jefferson, New York 11777 473-2800 4

Table 4 NURSING HOMES WITHIN A 1 TEN-MILE RADIUS OF THE SITE i HOMI ADDRISS CAPACITY PHONE Oak Hollow Nursing Center Oakerest and Church Ln. 160 924-8020 Plddle Island Patchogue Nursing Center 25 Schoenfield Blvd. 120 289-7700 Patchogue Port Jeffers;n Nursing Home P.O. Box 637 60 473-5400 Por: Jefferson Riverhead Nursing Home 1146 Woodcrest Ave. 121 727-7744 Riverhead Suffolk Home and Infirmary Yaphank Avenue 186 924-4300 Yaphank Sunrest Nursing Home 70 North Country Road 137 928-2000 Port Jefferson Woodhaven Nursing Home 1360 Route 112 143 473-3304 j Port Jefferson Station i I e - - -

t Table 5 ADULT RESIDENT HOMES WITHIN A TEN-MILE RADIUS OF THE SITE HOME ADDRESS CAPACITY TELEPHONE t J Country Life Rest Home Shore Road 11 473-9660 Mt. Sinal a Echo Arms Rest Home 204 Patchogue Road 32 473-0166 Port Jefferson i 1 i Millcrest Rest Home Mill Road 15 924-6979 Yaphank J ] Paradise Rest Home 500 West Main Street 30 289-1930 Patchogue Ridge Rest Home Whiskey Road 58 744-9781 Ridge. South Country Adult Home Yaphank-Patchogue Road 98 289-6999 East Patchogue Westhampton Hone Main Street 12 288-1546 For Adults Westhampton Woodhaven Home 1350 Route 112 181 473-3304 For Adults Port Jefferson Station i l

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k 1 Recreational Facilit .3 - There are numerous recreational L facilities within the 10-milt radius of.the site. These i facilities, their addre ses, acres, distance and direction from the site, and facili _as and. activities are given in Table 6. . 4 i. l Criminal Detention Centers - There are only 2 criminal , detention centers within'the 10-mile radius. These are.given in Table 7 along with their location, capacity, distance and direction from the site. 1

Employment Centers - The industrial and manufacturing firms within the 10-mile radius of the site are given in j Table 8. The table also indicates their location, number of people employed, product produced, distance and direction from the site.

All of.the above facilities require a specific plan for 4 evacuation. The evacuation times in this assessment will not be affected by these facities. i i 1 i i 1. t 1 I i i I. l

                                                                                                                ,, , ,\

a Table 6 RECREATIONAL FACILITIES WITillN A TEN-MII.E ItAinIUS OF Tile SITE DISTANCE AND y) DIRECTION FACILITIES AREA LOCATIOta ACRES FROM SITE (MILES) AND ACTIVITIES PA7t KS Wildwood State Park Itoute 25, Wading Iti ve r 699 3.6 E 1,2,3,4,7,12 Southhaven/Suf folk Cotuity llorseblock Road, 1,500 10.0 S 1,2,5,6,9,14' Park ( AKA Carman's Rive r North Patchogue Park) Peconic River Coun' ry Park Wading ntver Itoad, 1,555 4.0 SSE 13 Manorville Reeves Park / Beach (Pr) P rk Road, Riverhead 16 8.2 E 4 l NATURAL AREA PRESEltVES AND SANCTUARIES

 $aniel R. Davis Sanctuary     Mount Sinai Itoad , Coram         51           9.2 SW     14
 ' Cathedral Pines             Yaphank, Middle Island           322           7.4 SSW    2,  13, 14 Road, Yaphank BEACllES AND MAllINAS Wading River Beach          Creek Road, Wading River            7          0.6 NE     4,5 Shoreham Beach              North Country Road                             0.5 WNW    4 Shoreham ilulse Landing Road peach   flulse Landing Road,                8          2.8 E      4,5 Wading River Cedar Beach                 Mount Sinai lia rbo r ,          N/A           8.6 W      4,5 Mount Sinai.

Mount Sinai Yacht Club (Pr) liarbor Beach Road, - 8.0 W 5 Mount Sinai Ralph's Fishing Station Shore Itoad, Mount Sinai - 8.8 W 5

90 Table 6 (Continued) DISTANCE AND g) DIllECTION FACILITIES AREA LOCATION ACRES PROM SITE (MILES) AND ACTIVITIES COUNTRY CLUBS Shoreham Country Club Woodville Road, Shoreham N/A 2.4 W 4,10 Spring Lake Country Club Middle Country Road, 100 7.0 SW 10,15 Middle Islar.J Middle Island Country Club Yaphank, Middle Island 250 7.8 SSW 10,11,15 Road, Middle Island Daiting Ilollow Country Club Flag Drive, Dai ting IIollow 193 6.4 E 8,10,15 (Pr) liarbor Ilills Country Club Fairway Road, 126 9.6 W 15 Port Jef ferson GOLP COURSES I lfock 11111 Golf Club (Pb) Clancy Road, Manorville 269 9.2 SSE 15

' Spring Lake Golf Club          Bartlett Road, Middle Island 180           8.6 SW      15 Tall Tree Golf Club (Pb)        Route 25A, Rocky Point          N/A        4.4 WSW     15 Sandy Pond Golf Club (Pb)       Roanoke Ave., Riverhead         N/A        9.6 E       16 CAMPS Camp Francoise Darstow          Landing Road, Miller Place       61        7.0 W       2,4,5,6,7,12,13 Accommodations for 120.

Camp Baiting IIollow Sound Avenue, Daiting IIollow 185 4.6 E 2,4,5,6,7,12,13 Accommodations for 275. Camp Wauwepex Manorville Road, Wading 640 2.2 SE 2,4,5,6,7,12,13 River Accommodations for 300.

Table 6 (Continued) DISTANCE AND gy) DIRECTION FACILITIES AREA LOCATION ACRES FitOM SITE (MILES) AND ACTIVITIk:S CAMPS (Cont'd) Camp Grant Edwards Avenue, 48 5 . 4 F. 2,4,5,6,7,12,13 Calverton AccommodaLions for 225. Camp DeWolfe North Side Itoad, 71 1.4 ENE 2,4,5,6,7,12,13 Wading Itiver Accommodations for 200. Dorothy P. Flint Sound Avenue, Riverhead 140 5.4 E 2,4,12 Nassau County 4-11 Club 4-11 Activities Accommodations for 500. S t. Joseph's Villa North Country Itoad, (2) 0.5 W 2,3,4,7,10,12,13 0 Wading River Accommodations y for 300. OTilElt Riverhead Ract :'ay Route 58, Itiverhead 8.8 ESE Midget auto and stock car racing. (1) Facilities and Activities Code Numbers Indicate the Following: Data Sources:

1. Picnic Area 9. Riding Stables U.S.G.S. Maps.

2. Camping 10. Tennis Long Island State Parks.

3. Athletic Fields 11. Refreshment Stand County Catalog - Suffolk County.

4. Swimming 12. Arts and Crafts IIagstrom Atlas - Suf folk County,

                            .5. Boating                    13. Nature Walks                                         New York.

6. Fishing 14. Guided Nature Walks Outdoor llecreation Facilities

7. liiking Trails 15. 18-Itole Golf Course in Suf folk County (Map).

8. Skiing 16. Par 3 Golf Course County Park System: Coun ty o f (2) Property Owned by Long Island Lighting Company, Buildings Suff ik (Map).

Leased by Operators of the Camp. Frank 12n Factbook - A Guide to. Long Island. (Pr) Private (Pb) Public N/A Not Available

4 4 1 1 Table 7 t

CRIMINAL DETENTION CENTERS DISTANCE AND DIRECTION i NAME LOCATION CAPACITY FROM SITE e

. Honor Farm Yaphank 100 10 Miles SW !_ s 4-l Riverht:ad County Jr.il Riverhead 427 10 Miles E i 4 4 4 l b n 4 i- l

Table 8 INDUSTRIAL AND MANUPACTUltING FIRMS WITIIIN A TEN-MILE RADIUS OF T!!E SITE DISTANCE (MILE) AND NAME LOCATION EMPLOYMENT PRODUCTS DIRECTION FROM SITE Peerless Photo Route 25A 151 Photography Equipment 2.4 WSW Products, Inc. Shoreham and Supplies Georges Woodworking Route 25A N/A Cabinets 3.0 WSW Co., Inc. Rocky Point Loxcreen Company Route 25A 67 Doors and Windows 3.2 WSW Rocky Point Ileat Rite Fuel Co. Route 25A N/A Fuel Oil 4.0 WSW Rocky Point Kota Products, Inc. Route 25A 75 Windows 4.2 WSW Rocky Point s g Grumman Aerospace Swan Pond Rd. 3,343 Aircraft Parts and 5.0 SE Corporation Equipment Litton Systems, Inc. Swan Pond Rd. N/A Electronics 5.2 SE Calverton S tctranle r , L. E. River Road 15 Sporting aad Athletic 5.8 SSE Co., Inc. Manorville Goods Trocchio J. & Sons, Wading River Manor Road N/A Metal Specialties 6.0 SSE Inc. Manorville Kogel Materials Route 25 25 Concrete 6 .6 C'i corporation Middle Island Brookhaven National William Floyd Parkway 2,500 Research Development 6.6 S Laboratory Upton and Testing Laboratory N

Table 8 (Continut 4 NAME LOCATION DISTANCE (MILE) AND EMPLOYMENT PRODUCTS DIRECTION FROM SITE Drookhaven Whiskey Road 7 Sand, Gravel and Aggregates 6.8 SW Coram Stone Picone, Sal & Rocky Point Road Sons, I r.c . N/A Building Blocks 6.8 SW Middle Island G&A Hold & Tool Middle Country Road N/A Plastic Injection 7.0 SW Co., Inc. Middle Island Molds Suffolk Cement Routm 58 23 Cement Products 7.4 CSE Calverton Ulythe Machine & Route 25A 1ron Works 2 Steel /Pabrica ted 7.4 WSW Miller Place t

 , Coram Bus Service    Mt. Sinal Road               59        Dus Service                  8.6 SW g                      Co ram E

B:2nnett Bottled Gas Route 25A 7 Fuel Oil

   & Fuel Corp.                                                                            7.8 WSW Miller Place Port Jef ferscr. Route 112 and Industrial     13       Precision Instruments        9.0 WSW Products Corp.       Roads Port Jefferson Sta.

Firematic Supply Mill Road 5 Fire Fighting Equipment Company Yaphank 9.4 SSW Coram Block Works Mill Road N/A Concrete Products 9,4 SW Coram J. G. Industries, 432 Middle Country Road N/A Printing Service Ltd. Co ram 9.6 SW L _ _ _ - - - - _

Tal.e 8 (Continued) NAME LOCATION DISTANCE (MILE) AND EMPLOYMENT PRODUCTS DIPECTION FROM SITE Coram Rug Works, Route 112 35 Floor Covering Inc. Co ram 9.8 SW Strathmore Concrete 3680 Route 112 110 Conczete Work 10.0 SW Corporation Coram Double W. Food 14 8 Itallock Avenue N/A Frozen Food 10.0 SW Corporation Port Jefferson Station Specialties a w. Y N/A = Not Avail 3ble . Data Sources: County Catalog - Suffolk County Directory of Manufacturers, Suf folk County, ,N.Y. Directory of Commerce and Industry - 1973

                !!agstrom Atlas, Suffolk County, N.Y.

i t CONCEPT OF' EVACUATION The concept of evacuation in this assessment of the Shoreham evacuation times assumes that everyone in the ten-mile radius will be evacuated outside of that' ten-mile radius. There is no assessment of the time to evacuate within the two- or the five-mile radius. It is assumed that all people that live within the ten-mile radius will be evacuated along a specified route known to them. The evacuation time will include the time from notification until the last vehicle crosses the ten-mile radius. Notification of Evacuation There are two distinct events which are necessary to initiate the evacuation. One event is the direct notification of public agencies, schools, major employees and other locations of large population concentrations. The second event is the dissemination of the evacuation warning to the general population. Both of these events must include instructions regarding the sectors to be evacuated. The first event is assumed to be accomplished by telephone from the Emergency Operating Center to the affected group. Ideally the second event would be implemented by a public warning system, which would combine an acoustical warning system by sirens or horns, supplemented by instructions over selected radio and T.V. Broadcast stations. In this particular site, no advanced system of this type is in place. Therefore, the predominant mode of this notification is by use of vehicles and-helicopters with mounted loudspeakers. A specified message from these vehicles would indicate that an evacuation has been recommended and to turn on their radios for

i additional information. Radio stations must be provided with complete, accurate and current information. They should have prior zone descriptions and repeat recommended routing information. They should have phone numbers people can call should these people require special evacuation assistance or additional information. Public Rescor.se Time There can be up to four activities preceding the evacuation from the home which can be statistically distributed in time. (1) Receive warning; (2) Leave work; (3) Travel home; and, (4) Evacuate home. Each of the response times may have different distributions, depending upon the particular scenario being assessed. Receiet of Notification - Receipt of notification is assumed to approach a normal distribution in time; therefore, the accumulated probability approaches an "S" curve. This distribution can be approximated by three straight lines. One line, passing through the 50 percent, 16 percent and 84 percent distributions, represents two time increments. One straight line from zero to 16 percent represents one time increment. The third straight line from 84 to 100 percent represents one time increment. It is assumed that the time increments are five minutes, so the total time for receipt l of notification is 20 minutes. This distribution means that 16 percent will have been notified within the first five minutes, 50 percent will have been notified in ten minutes, 84 percent will have been notified in 15 minutes, and 100 percent will have been notified in 20 minutes. (See Volume I for more detail.) i

i Departure From Place of-Work - Departure from the place of work is assumed to approach a normal distribution curve in the same manner as receipt of notification. Distribution is approximated by three straight lines in four five-minute time increments. The distribution assumes that 16 percent will- - depart from their place of work in five minutes, 50 percent will depart in ten minutes, 84 percent will depart in 15 minutes, and 100 percent will depart in 20 minutes (see Volume I for more detail.) Travel From Work to Home - The time of travel to the home approaches normal distribution of time in the same 1 manner as the two previcus responses. Under normal conditions this distribution assumes that 16 percent will travel to home in five minutes, 50 percent in 10 minutes, 84 percent in 15 minutes, and 100 percent will travel to home in 20 minutes. This distribution is expanded in certain scenarios, specifically that of the adverse weather scenario (see Volume I for more detail). Departure From Home - Departure frcm home also approaches a normal distribution in time and the accumulated probability approaches and "S" curve. The distribution is approximated by three straight lines in the same manner as the above three responses. The activity is distributed over eight five-minute periods for a total of 40 minutes. The distribution indicates that eight percent will depart from home in the first five minutes, 16_ percent in ten minutes, 33 percent in 15 minutes, 50 percent in 20 minutes, 67 percent in 25 minutes, 84 percent in 30 minutes, 92 percent in 35 minutes, and 100 percent will have departed home within;40 minutes (see Volume I for further details.) l l i 1

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i l I I Evacuation Link / Node Network  ! The evacuation routes for each centroid has been manually established and coded for computer evaluation. Figures 5, 6 and 7 indicate the coded network and the evacuation route for each centroid. Table 9 contains the network descriptions. The table contains two node numbers for each end of a given link, the distance between nodes in miles, the assumed speed for that link, its total capacity in vehicles per hour in the direction of evacuation, and the identity of the roadway. For example, the first link in Table 9 is from Node 10 to Node 11. The distance is 0.63 miles, the assigned speed is 20 miles per hour, the capacity is 1,000 vph, and the roadway segment is on Briarcliff Road. The values assigned to each link represent i the best judgement of these factors considering roadway gecmetry, width, terrain and other factors. Many of the evacuation zones are rather large and may have several centroids. These centroids associated with population centers and are located to provide for a logical evacuation of the zone. The capacities established for each link are not the capacities that could be expected under normal circumstances. The evacuation of a ten-mile. area has all the vehicles headed in the same direction, with the possible exception of emergency

vehicles coming into the area. Because of the directional flow and controlled routings, lane capacities are generally larger than could be expected under normal circumstances. Another important factor that contributes to smoother flow and greater capacities is that all drivers of vehicles on any roadway

, segment are of one accord and are headed for the same location. Generally, they are probably the most seasoned, experienced of the drivers in a household. All drivers know that they must evacuate the area and cross the ten-mile zone.

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        \c.,).5 LEGEND.                                                                                                           1                                                                      A i
                                                                                                                                                                                                                'N O A-1              CENTACIO AND NUMBER                                                                        ; ::dp: .:a.                                                                        -

i  ; e t42 NODE AND NUMBER i ! w oeans.nces O ' G EV ACUATION AOUTE  ? 3 MIL E S EVACUATION NETWORK  : SHOREHAM Evacuation Time Assessment Study Welleen .Tvne/4 and dssunafra FIGURE 6

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       '38          IE 0.'9            15.0            !!00
       '35        10s 0.51            l'.0             :500
       '40                                                                                           "

107 0.27 15.0 1500 54 108 0.30 15.0 1500 54: 217 0.72 " 15.0  !!00 543 120 0.28 15 0- 1500 _44

   'o Table 9 (Cont'd)
      -GE       *::E ::3*           i ED               ,.f y;;E N37  3:ED     N   POAEWAY IDENTITY
       $44          41        .'d     l'.0      :D0                               Centrcid Connector
                 ..s            ..     ,,                                                  n

c. a r. ..s ... ..0 ,30

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i Table 10 indicates the vehicles on each link. The number of vehicles is determined by the population to be evacuated and is based upon the assumption that each vehicle will evacuate 3.0 people. It has been observed in other actual evacuations that about 99 percent of the evacuees leave by private automobile. Therefore, this is a conservative assumption that all people are to be evacuated by automobile. The number of vehicles on each link is a summation of all the vehicles from the different centroids that use any specific link of roadway. Table 11 describes the evacuation route with a link-node description by centroid. This table gives the numbers of each node through which each evacuation route passes. Table 9 describes each link in this evacuation route and Table 10 indicates the number of vehicles on each link. Special Traffic Control Strategies - There are certain locations within the ten-mile limit where traffic control strategies must be applied to prevent travel conflicts and provide for the best distribution of traffic during the evacuation process. The Long Island Expressway and the Sunrise Highway are both Freeway type facilities with high volume capacities. The locations where maximum queuing, with their accompanying delays, are at the limited number of ramp entrances to these two roadways. The entrance ramps to these two freeways limit the rate at which vehicles can enter the roadways. One example of this is the interchange of Route 66 (Wading River Road) with Long Island Expressway. It will be necessary to split the traffic so that part enters the Long Island Expressway westbound and the remainder of the traffic continues south on Route 66 to enter the on-ramp westbound on Sunrise Highway. l

r Table 10 VIHICLES CN EACH LINK

                                           ~ Normal Weekday Anode      Enode       Veh                       Anode     Snode       Veh 10         1:      1406                          57        'a     ;01 59     ;749 11         1:      1406                          'i 12         13     ~1'28                          '9      204      ;'49 55        ;;'

13 14 ;5:9 60

           -14         15      0675                          61         5        ::5

5 16 :e75 62 24 N!

16 17 0'20 :I :4 ."7 17 13 !313 24 t' .~ , -. -3,- 13 ;s 4:26 19 :0 ;44e se :s  : :: 19 :1 2'90 27- 28 ?3: 2'39 e3 19 II: 20 21

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             .4        .o       ..ve                          i.        *J    ..
                        .'6     '.'C'                         .3        .4       2. 4 '5
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             . .i      47
                       .        4, .

37 .. ...e . . v ....

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                                                             '7
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30 3: :434 72 75 1.::

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37 40 ;Gi3 33 70 ~;3: 39 41 i>2 ii 0 ..:3 40 .so e

                                 . n.si.                      ;0    .s a. 7   .. -    .

14  :'  ;'!: 41 4: 1325 4 ., ca .: y  ;=.  ;: .e... :. Ja. ..ra r. e. . .; 1 43 .vs .i . 7.,

                                     . .g 45         37          3e8                         77        :S      :::

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                                    .,9                     i.oo      .a.. $

49 e.c .. .. 50 51 3:' 101 102 .:'I ' 5 203 1066 102 115 ;s'3

             '2 .       48            57                    103        104      ;240 53          36         414                     104       0:0       :24 54 -       55'         930                    105           31       213 55          56      1059                        loe       211         ::4 56          57      147:                        107       212      .: :

i s Table 10 (Con'

        -Anode Snode        Veh                    Anode         anode    Veh 108     107      12:6                          e37       29    :06 i            109     1:1      1063                          538       IS     813 110      64 -     464                          539     106      :64 111     :20       464                          540     107    1033 4            113      19        *17                         '41     106    12:a 114      'S        273                         54      217    ;h3 115     2:3        206                         543     :20    ::e3
            !!$       13         06                        544        41    -:1 117     2:4      !!34                          545     110       'ti t            1:3     209      ::17                           546       11     4',
            ..-                  4,i                        ,47
            .7        .= =s                                 .      .14       e.

120 :21 1063 $43 ;4  :'i

            .17     109      : e3                           ras     1:!      .::

501 10 140s 550 *e  :: 500 23 :00 rrl ;17 ..: 503 33 '27 552 117 .;:7 504 12  ::: 5:3 118 .!:

                     -c e.c
            ..       4.       r. 4                          ,,4
                                                            ..      ,1a "06      45       '74                           55      2:3      1*:
                                 .-                         ,,,       s,.

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                                                            ...            .- .e.

505 52 57 '57 1s .91

            '09      '3        214                          5r3        74      :.;

510 54 e:1 5'9 100  ::i 511 :0 1:9 512 si 705 513 :3 1777 514 67  ::!2 515 'l 1745

            '16       76     1060
            ';7      37        e50
            '1S      :6        207 519      27        '16 20     79       60
            '21      90        620
            ,.,       ..       .7.4
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            ,=3       ,          At
            ..       .6        . .
            '24      38        105
            ..a      c.i       .o t..a g    ;g
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            ':7      '6        4:2                                                    !

5S 54 309 529 57 103

            '30     -Si        200 531      39      2063 532      94      2552 533       97       006 534     101      1673 535     103        517 536    -105-       413 i

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Table 11 EVACUATION ROUTE LINK NODE OESCRIPTION Ey Centroid

     .>i     =0LE      <!E 2 <!E 3 <DE 4 NODE 5 NODE 6 NCH 7 NODE 9 NODE 9 NODE 10 NCDE 11 NODE 12 N02E 13 N0;E 14 4:      50:        10       11     12    13      14       15    16        17   18   IS    21    22     201 i:      !?:        :3      24      25    26      27       29    29       30    31   32    22   201 4

-  ::3 33 34 14 15 - 16 17 18 19 2 22 20

- *;4  :: 13 14 15 1s 17 18 19 21 22 201 s

'      :;       !;!       3!       3:     37    38      34       40     20       21   22  201

!C: 4! 37 32 39 41 42 43 202

. ':- 4: 47 46 49 50 51 203

       .:       !:s       !!       45     45    50      51      203 e:

4. 2. , se 39 40 .0 .. ... e. s.

E2  ::' !4 '5 Se 57 53 59 204

E3 ':: 60 55 5e 57 .'i 59 204

!.:  : e2 24  : 6

                                                        .         27    26       29   30    31    32   22     201

';3 si :4 45 95 99 208 73 !4 37 e6 69 26 70 20e

':! 7. 72 73 74 75 70 206 t' ';: 7: 77 78 75 70 206

517 e- 65 69 BE 70 206

*:S 2: 27 29 24 30 31 103 104 210

.  :  !;:  ;- 25 29 is 31 103 104 210 G4 ' 2') 77 34 14 15 16 17 18 19 21 22 201 G 521 9 81 17 18 19 20 21 22 201

         -;      522       52       45     37    33      39       41     42       43 202 m:      !:2        le       17     19    19      21       22  201 2

H3 524 39 39 40 20 21 22 201 31 525 63 64 119 85 51 203 I: 52e et 50  !!- 203 _g, I l

        ~.
 ~.

Table 11 (Continued) LIh! ' NCX 1 NOX 2 NOX 3 NO2E4 NOTE 5 NCDE e NODE 7 NOLE E NODE i MCLE 10 40DE 11 NO M 12 NODE 13 NOLE 14-J1 527 54 57 5E 59 204 J2 529 54 55 56 57 59 59 204 R:A 529 87 73 74 ' 75 70 204 hil 530 88 70 206 K:: 531 Ef 90 207 A:I 53: 94 95 ie 205 K1! 533 97 98 ee 96 205 L1 534 ^; 101 10 11! L  !!! 103 104 21. n1 536 105 21 17 15 l' 2C  :: 22 l01 M: 537 29 30 31 32 2: 201 r.3 533 19 19 20 21  :: 201 r,4 535 10: 211 MS 540 107 212 N: 541 105 107  :::

                                                                    ^

N2 54 217 108 1:1

      #2       543    120     121 k4       544      41     4      43   20:

0: 54: 110 84 17; 65 5 203

    . C:      546     11     220 C3      547    113     219 P1    ' 548    114       58    !?    204 F2       549    115     213 P3       550    116     213 01       551    117     214 0:       552    117     214

 ~

l 1 l l Table 11 (Continued) l L:6E NOLE 1 W DE 2 G E 3 GE4 4E5 gee CE* GEi GEi *0IE 10 =0:.E 1; G E ;; NCI:E 13 G E .- E1 !53 118 209

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4 Special traffic control measures will be required at the interchange between the William Floyd Parkway and the Long Island Expressway. Two lanes of traffic will be flowing south-bou". 2 on the Willia = Floyd Parkway as they approach the interchange. The outside lane of traffic will be directed to the on-ramp westbound on Long Island Expressway. The inside lane of traffic on William Floyd Parkway will continue across Long Island Expressway and utilize three loops in order-to enter Long Island Expressway westbound. This is an unorthodox traffic movement but with proper supervision provides the needed additional entrance onto the Expressway. This would take four policemen to properly direct the traffic. The first one would split the traffic so that the outside lane of the William Floyd Parkway entered the on-ramp westbound. The second policeman would be on the. south side of Long Island Expressway to direct traffic onto the southwest loop. The third man would be on the Long Island Expressway eastbound to direct the traffic onto the southeast loop. The fourth man would be on the William Floyd Parkway northbound to direct the traffic onto the northeast loop which enters the Long Island Expressway westbound. Special control will be required at the intersection of Route 25'and Route 21. The Centroid F-2 has over 17,000 vehicles to be evacuared. The Centroid will be directed to the south on Route 21 to the intersection of Route 25, where it then will be directed west on Route 25. At the same time, traffic from Centroid F-1 will be directed to the south along Ridge Road, along with two other Centroids, then west along Route 25 to the intersection of Route 21, where it will be

   ,    directed to-the south on Route 21.       This provides for two continuous flows of traffic at this intersection without interruption. On-site police control will be required.

  't t

t 4 a A se'ction of' Mill Road between Route 21 and Yaphank-Patchogue , Road will require special traffic control. This is a 0.25 mile section of the road across Carmans River. Traffic being directed to the-south along Route 21 will be turned west on Mill Road. Mill Road continues to'the west and Yaphank-Patchogue Road extends to the south and connects to an on-ramp to Long Island Expressway. This short section of Mill' Road will be operated one direction on both lanes. The southerly lane will be directed into Yaphank-4 Patchogue. Road and then onto the westbound on-ramp to Long Island Expressway. The north lane will continue to the west along Mill Road then south on Bellport Road, across Long Island Expressway and enter the westbound on-ramp to the Sunrise Highway. On-site police control will be required at this location. The intersection of Route 25 and Route 112 will require special traffic control. Route 25 is a three lane road in this area. Two lanes will operate westbound during evacuation. The evacuation will be westbound on Route 25. Traffic on the-inside lane will be split from the traffic on the outside lane, directed south.on Route 112. i Traffic on the outside lane will-be directed to the inside lane prior to' additional-traffic coming south on Route 112 and

!        entering the outside lane of Route 25 westbound at Coram. The inside lane of traffic will again be diverted to the south on

Ocean Avenue (Route 83).

               .Again, the outside lane of traffic will be diverted to the inside lane and traffic coming from the north on Ocean Boulevard will turn west.on Route 25 into the outside lane.           This will take on-site police control at the intersection of Route 25 and i

Route 112 at the entrance of the traffic from the north on Route ) 112 that will enter Route 25 westbound, and at the intersection ) of Ocean Boulevard at Route 25 in order to divert traffic to the 4 south on Ocean Boulevard and to the middle lane of Route 25. i

s A. 3. Special Transportation Recuirements _. Transportation requirements for special problem groups, such as non-car owning families, hospital, schools, jails, and so forth, were not included in the evacuation time assess-ment. The assumption was that all families would evacuate as a unit from their homes. See numbers 7 and 8 in the Summary of Assumptions below. Sector Evacuation Evacuation Plans are usually set up on a sector or quadrant basis. This assessment has not been concerned with segmenting the 10-mile radius . The assessment looked at total evacuation l from the EPZ. However, this does not preclude evac'uation by quadrants . Quadrants can be examined from the data in this repc rt . Sector evacuation can be approximated by the selecticn rf appropriate planning zones. z Lonc Island Sound Evacuation of boats from the EPZ in Long I .and Sound would be required during an emergency. This would be accomplished by a direct call to the Coast Guard at Eaton Neck. County police patrol boats would assist in the water evacuation. The Coast , Guard would notify all boats within the EPZ to evacuate. The complete evacuation time should not exceed two hours.

       +   -        -       ,             -     ,

                                                               ,~

E EVACUATION TIME ASSESSMENT Evacuation times have been considered for four different scenarios. The scenarios are:

1. Normal weekday - workers at work, children in school;

2. Ideal conditions - nighttime, most everyone at home;

3. Adverse weather conditions - storms, or fog; and,

4. Summertime recreational peak.

The assessment was performed by computer to a process des-cribed in some detail in Volume I. Table 12 lists the evacuation times by centroid for the four scenarios shown above. Normal We9.kday The .iaxi.num evacuation time is two hours and 35 minutes for centroid F during the normal weekday. These evacuation times include receipt of warning, leaving work, travel home, departure from home , network travel and delay time . S ummertime The evacuation times for summer are generally longer than for the normal weekdui . The total population of the EPZ is 159,959 in the summer, as compared to 138,539 for the rest of the year. The maximum evacuation time for this scenario is three hours and zero minutes for centroid E3. Some zones have much ' 1 larger population in the summertime, and some have the same pop-ulation. Therefore, there is not a uniform increase in evacuation l l times from tl.e same centroid. It is estimated that Wildwood State Park could have as many as 3,000 visitors on a summer day. The park would receive a direct warning by telephone. There would be minimal delay in _ preparing to evacuate the Park. Travel time for these people would precede the travel time on the network for people leaving home. Therefore, evacuation of the Park will not extend the evacuation time. i 1 1

      , s.

u 9 P 0 9D'3lilh M ~ a{uud n h l Table 12 66 * ' EVACUATION TIMES By Centroid NORMAL SUlstER ADVERSE NIGEIT WEEKDNY TIME WEATHER TIE

           . .: . . t., ,. .r,         - .c. . .
                                                         $ . :. . . ,,         t. . c..         .. .o : g y.r:          5 r.:
                                                                                                                            .        -caci.
                                                                                                                                                           - ..4:

41 .At 4 ;s5, il .s* 01 *31 B; 12S . '42

                                                                                  .                      51                 140           B1                   13
                     *:                   21                  i'                  ..'        .
                                                                                                          '<2               ;43           B.?                  .- 1
                                         ;17                                                                                                                   33 33                                        53                 13.        I t

33 14i 93

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g 10 I  ?; J. *1 a .r 1

                                                                                                                            . .s *        .f .p                <

• l .- ,. "

o- .- 37 '

                                                                                                         .3                 s.-           '.-

v - 3rd

                     ;.                  193                  **                 .
                                                                                             ,          *1 .               ;44            04                   .

IS - 23

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                                         .V1                      ;               .30                   ;;                 ;33            23                   53
                           .              .34                     i               143                   F1                130                 :              ;11
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                                                                  -               .?f        l          77                 ..,               .
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32 f  : 4 i :s s? :2

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9

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                                            .1;               42                    10
                                                                                              ,            ..                 4           <                    :$

13 91 -3 '3 i 43 .;; ,3 To

                        ,                      oc                  ;                 20       l          .:                   :.s             1
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                            ..                  3
                                                               *.                   :g i,              ,o :-             v 31                      37             of'                149                   .1 :

127 J1 32

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                                                                                                                              .            1,.                 4.-e g;;,                      117             51A                  129                *1A s                       42        31,*,                100 a.-                       114             *'!                  :24                e. ip               14;               at                  2:

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Al*; 144 r'O 212 1E 30 8:: 50 11E ;0; E :4 i 1 1 i

I Table 12 (Cont ' d) NO300LL SUMMER ADVERSE NIGHT WEEKDAY TIME WEATHER TIME

   .. . . . .m
            ,,,,         +:
                          . . .       - g. :ca
                                            ..*           <:,q-        l : N RDID           TIr:.      -.- gars.           re.:
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           ..             .o8 114                 L1             11              -'

t6

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t, ,. a. . ,2  :* J

                          ,,              2, 146                 M1              <r4
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r.,. - 2. '2 .

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           .-                 :3
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d3

           ,. 4 34              ' .' 4        oa, e
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Adverse Weather If the weather were adverse to the extent traffic could not move on the roadway system, then the plant would probably have to be shut down. The probability of that happening is very re=cte. A more likely occurrence is icy, slick roads during a winter stor=, The third column of Table 12 assumes an ice storm, or ice and snow combination, where roadways are not impassable but are much slower to travel. Under these conditions , travel from work to home would be distributed over 40 minutes instead of 20 min-utes. Network travel during evacuation would probably be reduced to one-half of normal speed. With these conditions, the maximum evacuation time would be two hours and 56 minutes for centroid F3 and two hours and 55 minutes for centroid Gl. Generally, the adverse weather times are lenger than the evacuation times for summer. Nighttime This scenario provides the shortest evacuation times of all. People are home from work and children are hcme from school. With the f amily all at home , the mobilization time is less. There is a time distributien for receiving the warning and a time distribution for preparing to leave. The time distributions for preparing to leave werk and travel from work to home does not apply. Populations are. the same as normal workday. Under these conditions, the maximum evacuation time would be two hours and 20 minutes for centroid F3. The fourtn column of I l Table 12 gives the evacuation time at night. l I 1 i l

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