SBK-L-15181, FPL-081-PR-002, Revision 0, Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report, Figure 4-34 Through Figure the End

FPL-081-PR-002, Revision 0, Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report, Figure 4-34 Through Figure the End

ML15274A215
Person / Time
Site:	Seabrook
Issue date:	09/25/2015
From:	Collins M, Kline S, Pistininzi J, Gerald Williams Enercon Services
To:	Document Control Desk, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
Shared Package
ML15274A245	List: ML15274A210 ML15274A212 ML15274A214 SBK-L-15181, FPL-081-PR-002, Revision 0, Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report, Figure 4-34 Through Figure the End
References
SBK-L-15181 FPL-081-PR-002, Rev. 0
Download: ML15274A215 (28)

Text

Synoptic Wind and Prcssure Field Analysis Extent Scabrook Station Nuclear Power Plant 80'W 75Wt 70OW 65'W 60*W ¢J*UU gow nK*W 4'SW SO0N-55'N.

50ON-45'N" eON 40*N 30'No NextEra Energy (NEE)

Seabrook StationFiue44 O EN ER CO N Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report Grid Domain Used in the Seabrook PMWS Analysis

Reference:

ESRI, 2015a FPL-081-PR-002 REV. 0

Hourly Surface 71,%V Stations 70"W

,,,4'h"

,-43'4 12"W 71,W 78W

• SeaBrook Nuclear Plant

• Stal'ons Used Mtes

• Staions ?J( Used 0 20 40 80 NextEra Energy (NEE) FO EN ER CO N Seabrook Station Figure 4-35 Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report Location of Stations Used in the Wind and Pressure Recurrence Interval Analysis

Reference:

ESRI, 2015a; NOAA, 2014i, 2014j FPL-081-PR-002 REV. 0

tropical storm tracks passing Generate 30,400 synthetic within 150 km of 5eabrook H open coast near Seabrook. Perform statistical analysis of all 20,400 Run the storms through SLOSH model, determine the surge on the sirge estimates. Identify return periods.j a*

I Identify the 10 tracks with the Identify the 10 tracks with tl~e highest storm surge as completely cover the range of I

highest wind velocities over computed by SLOSH on the surg~e values computed with Seabrook site. open roast. SLOSHI on the= open coast

'dii II

! U SRun the identifled tracks through *the Delf't3D model to compire the surge at the Sealbrwxk site.

I I j Pefr titclaayi fUsingregreo eqainEstablish a linear regression esiatsIdniy eta ete a=set of 20'A00 Delft3D

• reetmts=open coast SLOSH ebetween a

IAdd 10% exceedance tide to surge estimates, Perform statistical analysis. Identify return periods OENERCON Figure 4-36 Hurricane Climatology Methodology Flow Diagram

Reference:

FPL-081-PR-002 REV. 0

~1 (a) Gene7tsfor~a~Tk (b) Density of genesis points for 9

8 7

8 S

4 3

2 1

8o0 ,

64w 48w NextEra Energy (NEE)

Seabrook Station (OENERCON Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report Figure 4-37 Genesis Points and Their Probability Distribution for Seabrook FPL-081-PR-002 REV. 0

E C

3/

15 Time (days)

NextEra Energy (NEE)

Seabrook Station 0* ENERCON Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report Figure 4-38 Example of Random Time Series Generated Using Equations 4-5 and 4-6 FPL-081-PR-002 REV. 0

ERA40; 1,000 Tracks

-90" N 70"N-Safflr-Simpson Hurricane Scale 5O.N Category Wind speeds 30' N- 30"N

10. N- 10" N Two 43-49 m/s, 83-95 kts o10'S96-110 mph, 154-t77 kmlh 10"S 33-42 m/s, 64-82 kts One 3OOS 74-95 mph, 119-153 kmih 30" S- Additional classifications 50" S 507O5 70"S-2 -~ I I I I U. U Ma U. U. w w w w i S S I !

(colors show Saffir-Simpson intensity)

NextEra Energy (NEE) EN ER CO N Seabrook Station Figure 4-39 Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report Randomly Selected Tracks Generated Using Statistics from the ERA4O Reanalysis FPL-081-PR-002 REV. 0

NextEra Energy (NEE) 0 ENFigure ER CO N 4-40 Seabrook Station Comparison of 6-hour West-East (a) and South-North Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report (b) North Atlantic track displacements between HURDAT (Bue) adhWindnskheh

_______________________________________________________________Bl__e)__ad____nd tsynhetic(red)track FPL-081-PR-002 REV. 0

Hurricane track density fb) 399 HURDAT tracs, 1970-2005 4{a) Z946 synthetic events (c) 399 synthetic tracks 50"N 50°N SON 40"N 40*N 30"N 30"N 3ON 20FN 20N 10"N 10rN wu- ~o-~rw wow zo-w 80"W 6"W 40"W z0"W U41W bU 4owW ZU~rW 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 ~

GA0.5 0.6 0.7 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 Number of events per 2.5" x 2.5" area per year NextEra Energy (NEE) 0 EN E R CON Seabrook Station Figure 4-41 Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report Number of hurricane tracks per 2.5° latitude-longitude box FPL-081-PR-002 REV. 0

NextEra Energy (NEE) O EN ER C ON Seabrook Station Figure 4-42 Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report Track Set with Maximum Wind Speeds Near Seabrook

Reference:

ESRI, 2015a FPL-081-PR-002 REV. 0

NextEra Energy (NEE)

• EN ER CO N Seabrook Station Figure 4-43 Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report Tracks Set Producing Maximum Storm Surge with SLOSH model at Seabrook

Reference:

ESRI, 2015a FPL-081-PR-002 REV. 0

2 0.93 00 1.5 1

0.5 E 0

-0.5

-1

-1.5

-2 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70¸ 80 Elapsed Time (hours)

• WSEL -10% Exceedance High Tide NextEra Energy (NEE) O EN ER C ON Seabrook Station Figure 4-44 Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report Bounding Synoptic Event Still Water Elevation at Seabrook FPL-081-PR-002 REV. 0

R

• 00004 0.0001 0~000~ 0.0004 0.+00I 0.02 0.04 0+01I 040?

+ ++ *"mp* + *Ir llm+qllr

+m'mlF Ste aft $4g+wt@

i.I 1i)+,I eflcr c~rr~tc*l.m l'r'. gT' ....

Figlure *P14. ;dv, r~usp

• Lap.eruabtw, v*rtic1 mlwer al~m 1~I/g 0

NextEra Energy (NEE)0 EN RN Seabrook Station Figure 4-45 Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report Wave Runup on Impermeable, Vertical Wall

Reference:

USAGE, 2011 FPL-072-PR-002 REV. 0

20* I I Bol~om of ,SwowlI z

-J - TuS..SLR.Sut UJ l Swge; 94¶775I 01 1O 12 0 1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 11

! Wa~vo ~i.ioI~t O~ *1 SeawaU Saanttac~er~t I I

- l~r..t~oad (~) at Seawall o? i0~

o o0 i 0 2 :3 5 S 7 S a 10 ii 12 1

1.

- I Ow1op~*~g Volume tSop.d Pros~

25r- - Ove.1op~*g Volume ~Ve4oaI WW) -

0) 2 3 Time (hr)

NextEra Energy (NEE)

Seabrook Station 0 EN E R CON Figure 4-46 Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report Time Series of Wave Overtopping FPL-072-PR-002 REV. 0

Domain and Bathymnetry points I

42.93 42.92 42.91F 42.9F

~1 42.89F 42.88 42.87F

• L.

-70.86 -70.85 -70.84 -70.83 -70.82 -70.18!

Longitude.

NextEra Energy (NEE) O ENERCON Seabrook Station Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report Figure 4-47 Basin Domain and Bathymetry Points (cyan) for Hampton Harbor FPL-081-PR-002 REV. 0

Tsunami Observations Water Height 0-1ino¢ unkqnown 1-2m 2-~5m 5-10mn 10+m Deep Ocean Gauge I I I I I Eyewitness O~wvatioos/

Post-Tsunami 5urveys I I

• Iii ii lu lull ll NextEra Energy (NEE)

Seabrook Station 0 EN ER CO N Figure 4-48 Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report Recorded Tsunami Runup Events on the Northeast

______ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___Coast, USA

Reference:

ESRI, 2015a, 2015b; NOAA, 2014m FPL-081-PR-002 REV. 0

location observation ooints: <multiple>

meters-MSL 42.95r 20 15 10 42.9- 5 (n

0j o1) PMLW Obs. Point I0

-5

-. I.

-10 42.85 -15

-20

-25

-30 42.8

-70.86 -70.84 -70.82 -70.8 -70.78 -70.76 -70.74 -70.72 Longitude (degrees)

NextEra Energy (NEE) O ENERCON Seabrook Station Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report Figure 4-49 Delft3D PMT Observation Points for Seabrook WSEL FPL-081-PR-002 REV. 0

NextEra Energy (NEE) O E NER CO N Seabrook Station Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report Figure 4-50 Seismic Source Definitions FPL-081-PR-002 REV. 0

ThdSubevem crigin tume 2032 18 Nov 1929 (DG)' 2A9+/-* 150 Epcent" 44.69* N 56.00o W (DG)y 597+/-10" 7.2 +/- 0.3 Dip* 166+/-l?15 7.1 +/-+0.2 20 +/- Skmn 7.1 _ 0.1 1.9 +/- I X 10~' N..m M, (CM) 7.3 __3 x 10*" N-rn (10zt dyne-cmn) 8 +/- 2sec Firet Subevent 23.5 +/-t O.8sec 12? _.5 100__. 26 km Azilmuthl offset 32O0 +/- 100 140'+/-5° cf FSolution 20 +/-+2kin X 10O N-m Strike 5.3 +/- 1.1 3.3 +/- 3 x 10'tN-m

-0.51 +/- 0.5

-4.7 +/- 0.5 Secnd Sbva U,'

Depth 0.04 +/-O0.

24+/- 100O 2,3+/-4.0.5 59"_+ 10" -5.2 +/-. 1.0 1660+/-+_100 xauI 0" N-rn, plne azimuth 20 +/- 3kmn T 6.1, 66.77, 232.27 1.9 __1 X I10"N-m N 2.4, 21.63, 29.67 Depy 8 +/- 2aec P - 8.6, 8.07, 122.98 7.9 +/- 0.9 sec

• Sourcc paanti obtained in this stud unlen stat.ed od~zwie.

28 +/- 24km offoff .w305 (see texit) ,DO Dewey and Gordon (1984).

5.

NextEra Energy (NEE) E NER CO N Seabrook Station Figure 4-51 Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report 1929 Grand Banks Earthquake and Subevent Characteristics

Reference:

Bent, 1995 FPL-081-PR-002 REV. 0

::i 9 Historical I* S coticn Margin

1q75* / E!!if Eaarhqu~ke I0 S1929 Eartqua * °I7°

• Epicenter " *o, ,o 600 929 3 I .7Ž!

41 N -

NextEra Energy (NEE)

Seabrook Station 0 E NER Figure 4-52 CO N Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report Historical Earthquakes on the Scotian Margin

Reference:

Campbell et al., 2003 FPL-081-PR-002 REV. 0

1 0-01

- Morm =9.58 Mmax -9.28 10-02

..... Mmax =9.23 Mmax .8.95 EL 10-°3 1 0-04 tt 1 0-05 I

7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 NextEra Energy (NEE) ENERCON Seabrook Station Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report Earthquake Size Figure 4-53 for the Caribbean Distribution Subduction Zone FPL-081 -PR-002

Displacement (in)

• i*

a**

• /tl

• u*

i*

(kin)

LA Distance from Epicenter NextEra Energy (NEE)

Seabrook Flooding Hazards Station Reevaluation Report

A Displacement (in) 14

0)

Vti, TY - - -

Distance from Epicenter (kin)

Next~a Enrgy NEE)Figure 4-55 SexrabEnrook Statio Hispaniola Trench Ocean Bed Deformation for Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report Length = 700kmn, Width = 87.75 kin, Slip = 10 in.,

Depth = 8 kin, Dip = 20 degrees, Strike = N95 degrees, Rake = 90 degrees Solved with the Analytic Formulas Presented in Okada (1985)

FPL-081-PR-002 REV. 0

Next:Era Energy (NEE) ____E___ N__E___R______0 ___N Seabrook Station Figure 4-56 Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report Location of the Marques de Pombal Fault (MPF)

Earthquake Source

Reference:

USGS, 2008 FPL-081-PR-002 REV. 0

ti* *s m a~

13 14 13 ,13

'. mI

,4*

'- s

'.4I -

NextEra Energy (NEE) EN R O Seabrook Station Figure 4-57 Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report Maximum Tsunami Wave Amplitude (in) from the

____________________________________________________________Ma___u__sd__ arqueade PmbalFault(MPF

Reference:

USGS, 2008 FPL-081-PR-002 REV. 0

• Seabrook ~m MAVIVQ I*~ydww~

~.

• Ice JLegend Jam m p a~a gtpCo L4a~. rAG

[~Hydrologic Unit Code 12 I ~ t wt~

NextEra Energy (NEE)

Seabrook Station 0 ENERCON Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report Figure 4-58 Ice Jam Locations Referenced to Index Number Reference. USACE, 2014 FPL-081-PR-002 REV. 0

NextEra Energy (NEE) O ENE RCON Seabrook Station Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report Figure 4-59 Hydrostatic Pressure on Vertical Wall FPL-081-PR-002 REV. 0

NextEra Energy (NEE) O___E___ N___E___R___C ___O ___N Seabrook Station Figure 4-60 Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report Hydrodynamic Forces

Reference:

FEMA. 2012 FPL-072-PR-002 REV. 0

I Hispaniola Seismic Event 2.5

-J 2

I' I,

1.5F /

LU 1

0.5 !f 0

-1 2 4 6 8 10 Elapsed Time (hours)

NextEra Energy (NEE)

Seabrook Station 0 ENERCON Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report Figure 4-61 Tsunami-induced Probable Minimum Low Water at Seabrook without PMF FPL-081-PR-002 REV. 0