NUREG/CR-1215, Forwards Draft Copy of NUREG/CR-1215, Social & Economic Effects of Accident at Tmi,Findings to Date. Groups Rept Findings in Three Categories:Individual Behavior & Attitude Impacts,Effects on Regional Economy & Institutional Effects

Forwards Draft Copy of NUREG/CR-1215, Social & Economic Effects of Accident at Tmi,Findings to Date. Groups Rept Findings in Three Categories:Individual Behavior & Attitude Impacts,Effects on Regional Economy & Institutional Effects

ML20125E119
Person / Time
Site:	Three Mile Island
Issue date:	12/10/1979
From:	Kaltman M Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
To:	Youngblood B Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
Shared Package
ML19308C605	List: NUREG/CR-1215, Forwards Draft Copy of NUREG/CR-1215, Social & Economic Effects of Accident at Tmi,Findings to Date. Groups Rept Findings in Three Categories:Individual Behavior & Attitude Impacts,Effects on Regional Economy & Institutional Effects
References
RTR-NUREG-CR-1215 NUDOCS 8001300282
Download: ML20125E119 (3)

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/ S ots 10 4 FG DRA!1DUit FOR: B. J. Yo'ungblood,. Chiaf,.Cpst$13pnc. fit Analy. sis. Branch, DSE t/O L

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FiMM: flichael Valtman, Reqional Planner, RIAS, CDAB. DSE l

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PHQGRESS REPORT 4.: DESFARCll OfLIllE SOCI0EC0il0f'IC COSTS OF Tile THREE MILE ISLA!1D ACCIDEllT. . .

• 1 i I have attached a draf t copy of "The Social and Economic Effects of the Accident I

at Three flile Island: Findings. to. Da te", which was prepared by Mountain !!est j Research, Inc. This report was produced un^r our Post-Licensing Studies Contract ,

i and is currently being reviewed by the Socioeconoiile Review Croup. The report is l scheduled to be published and. distributed in c;rly January 1900 as a flVREG document.

The report is bascd prirarily on three sources of data

The THI telephone survey (published as HUnrc/CR-1093), interviews with local residents and officials, and i data miletted by f.he State of Pennsylvania, fhe latter source of, information requi,ed inL.auice intoraction vith Pennsylvania Slate agencies and members of the 007 Car's Cou sission on Three Mile Island. Although the repert focuses on 'he t..o-verk si io l irmdia tely folluulog i'wch 23, information on the csntinuinq uffncts tin ough the and of 9ptmher 1979 is presented. The last sectim of the egort is a di'cussion of possible long-torn off.e, cts, principally indivi 'ual a t tituis, settle nnt pa tterns, and economic effects related to chan!Ns in f he eos t of power.

The repart's findings can be 3,cuped into the following cateqories: individual behavine and a ttitude iupacts, (2) effccts on the, regional econany, and (3) insti-tuticaal effects.

Effects on Individuals -

l The rnst significant effect of the accidont on the people in the region was I the evacuation experience. Informtion regarding the plant was both threatening i and confusing. Snrveys show that i och of the public was stressed and upset during l

the accident period. One or nare menbers from approximately 51,000 households within fifteen niles of the plant evacuated. Evacuees traveled a considerable distance, averaging 100 miles, were gone from heme.an ' average of five days, -,

and spent an ave' rage of about $300 extra per household. Many in the area lost work and/or pay. On the~ other hand, some residents appear to have been affected very little by the accident; they remained calm and did not alter their daily routines i

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for ms t people, the ef fec ts of the accident were short-lived. Relative to the accident period, fewer people are worried today about emissions from Three Mile Island, fewer continue to see the station as a serious threat, and fewer show la.havioral s tress syrgtoms. But for others, the accident has caused a mare permanent change in Lleir day-to-day activi. ties and levels of stress.

I Regional _ Economic Impacts l The direct economic effects experienced during the emargency period following the accident were interrupted local production and reduced local income and emnl oyuen t. The losses were conspicuous during the first week of April but very minor subsequent to that time. The estimate of total accident-related income losses (and gains) derived from the NRC felephone Survey is probably the best measure of short-term economic disruption. tiet losses within fif teen miles of the site are estimated to be about $9 luillion.

The agriculture and tourism sectors of the economy were significantly affected during the emergency period, but continuing ef fects are not apparent; moreover, continuing disruption of economic activity due to the accident is conspicuous by its absence. In fact, direct effects uay eventually become posi tive if local expenditures that are necessary for the rehabilitation of Unit 2 increase, Against this apparent backdrop of " return to normalcy," there is concern within the business community about the effect of the accident on the cost of power and, through these costs, on the continued growth and development of the l'aliopolitan Edison Conany's (and pennsylvania Electric Company) service areas.

There is apprchension that uncertainty with respect to future electricity prices may significantly affect rehation and expansion plans, even if higher prices (relative to what they would have been) never occur.

The short-term ef fect on area households comprised both income losses and extraordinary expenses. In addition, account must be taken of the fact that l about $1.2 million in insurance has been paid to area residents, llouseholds in which someone evacuated incurred substantially greater costs than did other households. For the 15 mile ring, costs per household with evacuees averaged

$296, while for nonevacuating households they averaged $41.

1'any individuals reported that they had considered moving from this area, but presently few appear to have acted on this intention. The real estate market has shown no discernable reaction to the accident through the end of Septenber, Institutional Effects The accident at Three Mile Island strained existing institutions in several respects. First, because a formal emergency was not declared, the role of the Civil Ocrense coordinators was ambiguous. Given the already fragmented responsibility for public safety in most of the municipalities in the area, this cmbiguity was quite difficult to handle in some cases. ,

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B. J. You.igblood . 3 . . . . DEC 1 0 mg j j  !. 1 bond, it is clear that the lack of a, speci.ffc. evacuation plan prior. to the accident complica ted the \;ork of. .loca.1 pnergency.i.gencies. Poside.s. having .

responsibility for pre-operations. planning.prtd. handling requests for information from the public, emergency operations, copter.' personnel had to develop ad hoc plans that nornally require mn,ths, of, input.'. . .

Insti tutions v.her than uierg' ncy. e agencies varo. er pnlly unprepared for the acc i ' :n t. Thosa ulLh rcsponsibility for special populations - . prisons and liospitals - ' 2d no plans for. evacra t inq then prior to the accident. . Further-iiore, there was no procedure. .for i@nLifying. and evacuating the institutions' important records. ,

1 Third, the spansion of the antirnuclear Lovrmnt in. the Tf1I area has af.fected, i and will coa tinue to af fect, ic@ral,. sta te, and. . local decision-makers. At the local level; anti-nuclear groups .have. b resolutions t'mt oppose the reopening of. Till,cen passed. instrumentalThey are in .the in getting process of '.'orhing out affiliation interrolationsh.ips and wil1 intervene in NRC and other rajulatory hearings regarding res. tarting lli! Unit.1.. .

emitOL WJED D'l. .

flichael Kaltman, Regional Planner 1 Regional Inpact Analysis Section Cost-Benefit Analysis Branch Division of Site Safety and Cnvironmental Analysis

Enclosure:

As stated cc: Jin Chaluars .,.

Cyathia Flynn . . . , . . , ,

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