Text

Evacuation Time Estimates for South Texas Project Electric Generating Station Plume Exposure Pathway Emergency Planning Zone
	ML20202G331
Person / Time
Site:	South Texas
Issue date:	11/30/1984
From:	; HMM ASSOCIATES, INC.
To:	;
Shared Package
ML20202G301	List: ML20202G331; ST-HL-AE-1643, Forwards Response to Gw Knighton Transmitting Comments on Emergency Plan.Encl Rev 2 to Emergency Plan Includes Draft Tables Which Will Be Revised by 860501.NRC Response Expected by 860523;
References
	5011C, 83-556, NUDOCS 8604140327
	Download: ML20202G331 (106)
	v • d • e

- .- _ __.

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES -

FOR THE SOUTH TEXAS PROJECT ELECTRIC GENERATING STATION .

2 PLUME EXPOSURE ...

} PATHWAY EMERGENCY PLANNING ZONE -

i.

HMM Document No.83-556 November 1984 Prepared for: -

~

HOUSTON LIGHTING & POWER COMPANY .

Houston, Texas

+ ,

Prepared by:

~

HMM ASSOCIATES, INC.

336 Baker Avenue i Concord, Massachusetts 01742 i

O

^

l l

DR ADOCK O DR F

k (O TABLE OF CONTENTS U ,

Page

1. INTRODUCTION 1-1 1.1 General 1-1

1.2 Site Location and Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) 1-2

2. METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS 2-1 2.1 Sources of Data 2-1 2.2 General Assumptions 2-2 2.3 Summary of Methodology 2-3 2.4 Conditions Modeled 2-5

3. POPULATION AND VEHICLE DEMAND ESTIMATION 3-1

~

3.1 General Methodology 3-1 3.2 Permanent Residents 3-2 3.3 Seasonal Residents 3-4 3.4 Transient Pcpulation 3-6 3.5 Special Facilities 3-7 ,

3.6 Evacuation Analysis Case Population Totals 3-8

4. THE EVACUATION ROADWAY NETWORK 4-1 [

4.1 Network Definition 4-1 4.2 Evacuation Route Descriptions 4-2 4.3 Characterizing the Evacuation Network 4-5

5. EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE METHODOLOGY 5-1 5.1 Evacuation Analysis Cases 5-1 5.2 Initial Notification 5-1 5.3 Evacuation Preparation Times and Departure Distributions 5-2 5.4 Evacuation Simulation 5-5 50 llc --. - - _ _ , _ . - - - . . - _ . _ - . - - _

j TABLE OF CONTENTS (cont.)

Page

6. ANALYSIS OF EVACUATION TIMES 6-1 6.1 Evacuation During Refueling of Unit 1, With Unit 2 Under Construction 6-1 6.2 Evacuation During Operation of Units 1 and 2 6-12

7. SUPPLEMENTAL ANALYSES 7-1 7.1 General 7-1 ,

_~ 7.2 Evacuation Confirmation 7-1

. 7.3 Evacuation Traffic Access Control Locations 7-1

. 7.4 Traffic Management Locations 7-3 ]

~

REFERENCES R-1 APPENDIX 1 PERMANENT RESIDENT POPULATION AND Al-1 VEHICLE DEMAND ESTIMATES

~

_ APPENDIX 2 SEASONAL RESIDENT POPULATION AND A2-1 VEHICLE DEMAND ESTIMATES APPENDIX 3 TRANSIENT AND SPECIAL FACILITY ,

POPULATION AND VEHICLE DEMAND ESTIMATES A3-1 APPENDIX 4 ROADWAY NETWORK LISTING AND A4-1 CAPACITIES

_ i O

5011C LIST OF FIGURES

(')

V Figure Page 1.1 South Texas Project Site Vicinity 1-3 1.2 South Texas Project Plume Exposure Pathway EPZ Boundary and Evacuation Sub-Areas 1-5 1.3 Evacuation Analysis Case 1 1-9 1.4 Evacuation Analysis Case 2 1-10 1.5 Evacuation Analysis Case 3 1-11

( 1.6 Evacuation Analysis Case 4 1-12 1.7 Evacuation Analysis Case 5 1-13 _

.18 , Evacuation Analysis Case 6 1-14 ...

l l 1.9 Evacuation Analysis Case 7 1-15 1.10 Evacuation Analysis Case 8 1-16 '[

1.11 Evacuation Analysis Case 9 l-17 ,

1.12 Evacuation Analysis Case 10 1-18 1.13 Evacuation Analysis Case 11 1-19

() 2.1 3.1 NETVAC Simulation Flow Diagram 1980 Permanent Population Within the South 2-6

_ Texas Project Plume Exposure EPZ s gjr+~3*-7tg _

l.2 Seasonal, Transient and Special Facility N % ,_

_ Population Within the South Texas Project

,- Plume Exposure EPZ 3-5

~

4.1 Primary Evacuation Routes 4-3 _

4.2 Evacuation Roadway Network 4-7 5.l Notification / Preparation / Mobilization Time Distributions 5-3 6.1 Cumulative Vehicle Departures from the South Texas Project EPZ (Unit 1 operational and Unit 2 under construction): Fall / Winter Weekday, Fair Weather 6-7 6.2 Cumulative Vehicle Departures from the South Texas Project EPZ (Unit 1 operational and Unit 2 under construction): Fall / Winter Weeknight,

() Fair Weather 6-8 50 llc -lii-

Figure ,

Page 4

x-) 6.3 Cumulative Vehicle Departures from the South Texas Project EPZ (Unit 1 operational and Unit 2 under construction): Summer Weekend, Fair Weather 6-9 6.4 Cumulative Vehicle Departures from the South Texas Project EPZ (Unit 1 operational and Unit 2 under construction): Summer Weekend, Adverse Weather (Rain) 6-10 6.5 Cumulative Vehicle Departures from the South Texas Project EPZ (Unit 1 operational and Unit 2

, under construction): Summer Weekend, Adverse Weather (Rain and Flooding) 6-11 6.6 Cumulative Vehicle Departures from the South ,,

Texas Project EPZ (Units 1 and 2 operational):

Fall / Winter Weekday, Fair Weather 6-16 6.7 Cumulative Vehicle Departures from the South Texas Project EPZ (Units 1 and 2 operational):

(,s) Fall / Winter Weeknight, Fair Weather 6-17 6.8 Cumulative Vehicle Departures from the South Texas Project EPZ (Units 1 and 2 operational):

Summer Weekend, Fair Weather '

6-18 6.S Cumulative Vehicle Departures from the South .

l' Texas Project EPZ (Units 1 and 2 operational): ~

Summer Weekend, Adverse Weather (Rain) 6-19 6.10 Cumulative Vehicle Departures from the South Texas Project EPZ (Units 1 and 2 operational):

Summer Weekend, Adverse Weather (Rain and Flooding) 6-20 7.1 Preliminary Access Control and Traffic Management Locations 7-4 50 llc -iv-

i LIST OF TABLES eo

~

Table i '

3.1 Population Totals by Analysis Case 3 ,

1~ 6.1 Evacuation Time Estimate Summary With Unit 1 in Operation and Unit 2 Under Construction 6-2 6.2 Evacuation Time Estimate Summary With j Units 1 and 2 in Operation 6-13 1

~~

7 .-l Traffic Access Control Locations for the

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i South Texas Project EPZ 7-2

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5011C -v-f

In response to NUREG-0654, Rev. 1, HL&P has retained HMM

{) Associates of Concord, Massachusetts, to develop evacuation time estimates for the South Texas Project Plume Exposure Pathway EPZ (hereafter referred to as the South Texas Project EPZ). This. report will be provided to State and County officials for their use in the event of an emergency.

The evacuation time estimates have been developed using existing population data and the NETVAC computer simulation model. The NETVAC program was developed specifically to provide evacuation time estimates and related information for use in emergency planning. Evacuation times have oeen estimated for various areas, times and weather conditions, as s,uggested by Appendix 4 of NUREG-0654, Rev. 1. These

~~

evacuation times represent the times required for completing the following actions:

1. public notification, p

b 2. preparation and mobilization, and

3. actual movement out of the EPZ (i.e., on-road travel

"~

time, including delays associated with vehicle queueing). ~

I: _

Evacuation confirmation times have also been estimated and are presented in Section 7 of this report.

1.2 Site Location and Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ)

The South Texas Project site is located in Matagorda County, Te_xas. The plant site is located approximately 14 miles southwest of Bay City and 75 miles southwest of Houston.

A site vicinity map for the South Texas Project is included in Figure 1.1.

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e (m) FIGURE 1.1 - SOUTri TEXAS PROJECT SITE VICINITY 5011C 1-3

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'/~N 1,) The Plume Exposure Pathway Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) is the geogr'aphic area surrounding a nuclear power plant within i

which the NRC requires advance planning for evacuation or other short-term protective actions in the event of a radiological emergency. NRC regulations define the Plume Exposure Pathway EPZ as follows:

Generally, the Plume Exposure Pathway EPZ for nuclear power plants shall consist of an area about 10 miles (16 kilometers) in radius... The exact size and configuration i -

of the EPZ surrounding a particular nuclear power reactor ,1 shall be determined in relation to local emergency ...

response needs and capabilities as they are affected by ..

such conditions as demography, topography, land -

2 characteristics, access routes and jurisdictional ,

boundaries.*

() The Plume Exposure EPZ is indicated on Figure 1.2.

NUREG-0654, Rev. 1, further recommends that the EPZ be

-subdivided into evacuation analysis areas, as follows: -

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_ Radius Area four 90 U sectors

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j about 2 miles .

about 5 miles four 90 0 sectors 0

about 10 miles (EPZ) four 90 sectors about 10 miles (EPZ) entire EPZ 10CFR, Section 50.47(c)(2). The NRC provides further guidance for defining the Plume Exposure Pathway EPZ in NUREG-0654, Rev. 1.

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e FIGURE 1.2 - SOUTH TEXAS PROJECT PLUME EXPOSURE PATHWAY EPZ BOUNDARY AND EVACUATION AREAS SOLIC 1-5

- f' ' Evacuation of the area out to two miles of the South Texas U

Project would be accomplished on a 360 basis and would be included in the evacuation of any portion of tne EPZ.

Accordingly, only one 0-2 mile Analysis Case has been evaluated.

Nine geographic areas were identified for the evacuation rime analysis. These were identified on the basis of meteorological considerations and geographical considerations.

On the basis of meteorological considerations, an effort was made to identify four quadrants of approximately 90 degrees centered at the site. On the basis of geographical considerations, an effort was made to identify natural and ,;

min-made boundaries for these quadrants which could be readily ,

i.dentified by residents and government officials. The principal boundaries identified were Rt. 521, which $

approximately bisects the 10-mile EPZ in an east-west direction, the Colorado River, which approximately bisects the 10-mile EPZ in a north-south direction, and the new railroad

() north of the plant. The outer boundaries of the areas are primarily defined by circles having radii of 2-miles, 5-miles and 10-miles. The nine areas are also presented in Figure 1.2. .

_- Area 1 includes all land within 2 miles of the plant plus ,

all land beyond two miles which lies within the site boundary.

T;his Area corresponds approximately to the 2-mile analysis area of interest to the NRC. This Area was not divided into four [

sectors of 90 degrees each, because it consists largely of site property and presently has, and is projected to have, no resident population.

Areas 2, 3, 4 and 5 correspond approximately to 90 degree l quadrants located from 2 to 5 miles from the plant. Area 2 lies approximately southeast of the plant between the 2-mile and 5-mile circles. Specifically, it is bounded by Rt. 521 on the north, the 5-mile circle on the southeast, the Colorado River on the southwest, and the site boundary and 2-mile circle on the west. Area 2 might be evacuated in the event of a

() northwest wind.

l I

5011C 1-6

l Area 3 lies northeast of the plant. It is bounded by Rt.

[GD 521 on the south, the 2-mile circle on the southwest, the new railroad line on the west, and the 5-mile circle on the north and east. Area 3 might be evacuated in the event of a southwest wind.

Area 4 lies northwest of the site. It is bounded by Rt.

521 on the south, the 5-mile circle on the west and north, the new railroad on the east, and the 2-mile circle on the southeast. Area 4 might be evacuated in the event of a southeast wind.

Area 5 lies southwest of tne site. It is counded by Rt. ,y 211 and the site boundary on the north and northeast, and the .,.

5.-mile circle on the south and west. Area 5 might be evacuated in the event of a northeast wind.

Areas 6, 7, 8 and 9 correspond to 90 degree quadrants located from 5 to 10 miles from the plant. Area 6 lies southeast of the plant. Area 2 is the inner adjacent area.

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v Area 6 is bounded: on the north and northwest by Rt. 60 and Rt. 521; by the 10-mile circle on the east and south; by the CDlorado River on the southwest; and by the 5-mile circle on _

Lbe west. Area 6 might be evacuated during a northwest wind.

Area 7 lies northeast of the site, outside Area 3.' This

~

a;rea is bounded: on the south by Rt. 60 and Rt. 521; by the 10-mile circle on the northeast; on the west by a line made up [

of the Colorado River and the new railroad running i southwestward to the 5-mile circle; and the 5-mile circle on the soutnwest. Area 7 might be evacuated during a southwest wind.

Area 8 lies nortnwest of the site. It lies outside Area 4 Area 8 is bounded: on the east by a line made up of the Colorado River and the railroad running southwestward to the 5-mile circle; by the 10-mile circle on the northwest; by Rt.

521 on the south; and by the 5-mile circle on the southeast.

Area 8 might be evacuated in the event of a southeast wind.

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5011C 1-7

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( ) Area 9 lies southwest of the site, outside Area 5.

It is bounded by Rt. 521 on the north, by the 10-mile circle on the west and south, by the Colorado River on thq east, and by the 5-mile circle on the northeast. Area 9 might be evacuated in the event of a northeast wind.

Evacuation time estimates have been prepared for various combinations of these Areas under different time and weather conditions, pursuant _to NUREG-0654, Rev. 1 guidance. The relationships between the above mentioned Areas and the analysis cases required to be evaluated pursuant to NUREG-0654, Rev. 1 guidance are summarized below, and illustrated in ,;

Eigures 1.3 through 1.13.

Analysis Case Evacuation of Areas I

1. 0-2 Miles, 360 1 (See Fig. 1.3) 0-5 Miles, 90 0 SE

() 2.

3. 0-5 Miles, 90 NE 0 1,2 1,3 (See Fig. 1.4)

(See Fig. 1.5)

4. 0-5 Miles, 90 0 NW 1,4 (See Fig. 1.6) _

i. 0-5 Miles, 90 U SW 1,5 (See Fig. 1.7) _,

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6. 0-5 Miles, 360 1,2,3,4,5 (See Fig.' l.8)

7. 0-10 Miles, 90 SE 1,2,6 (See Fig. 1.9)

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9. 0-10 Miles, 90 NW 1,4,8 (See Fig. 1.11)

10. 0-10 Miles, 90 SW 1,5,9 (See Fig. 1.12)

11. Entire EPZ 1,2,3,4,5,6, 7,8,9 (See Fig. 1.13) l l

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FIGugg 1.10 - EVACUATION AngtySIS CASE a 5011C
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/
5011C 1-17'
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g FIGURE 1.12 - EVACUATION ANALYSIS CASE 10 5011C 1-18
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FIGURE'l.13 - EVACUATION ANALYSIS CASE 11 5011C 1-19
(~]
v
2. METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS 2.1 Sources of Data In order to estimate evacuation times, a number of data sources were reviewed to develop the appropriate input required for the computer simulation model used for the analysis. These data sources included the following:
o Population estimates were developed from (1) data presented in the 1980 Federal Ce'nsus of Population and Housing (Reference 3), (2) a review of Highway and U.S. Geological Survey topographic maps (References 4 and 5), and (5) a telephone survey .
{
conducted by HMM Associates during July 1984 (References 6 through 11). _
o
[ )
Peak employment levels at the South Texas Project were developed assuming operation of Unit 1, with
_ Unit 2 under construction. In addition, peak -
_. employment levels assuming Units 1 and 2 in
_ operation witn one unit refueling, were also
.. developed. ~
o Roadway geometric and operational data were t
collected by HMM Associates during 1980 and updated in 1984. In addition, U.S. Geological Survey topographic maps, and State and County highway maps were reviewed.
o Roadway and intersection approach capacities were calculated by the NETVAC computer model using algorithms developed from the Hignway Capacity Manual (Reference 12), and relationships identified
} in the Interim Materials on Highway Capacity (Reference 13).
5023C 2-1
/~N o Preparation and mobilization times have been developed for each population segment. These times were based upon discussions with Matagorda County and HL&P officials, on a review of site-specific characteristics of the South Texas Project EPZ, and upon a review of available empirical data.
Officials from the Matagorda County Sheriff's Department have participated in the review of these preparation and mobilization times, o Vehicle occupancy rates for the various population ,
__- sectors were based upon (1) permanent and seasonal '
, resident household size, and (2) peak occupancy of transient and special facilities within the EPZ.
2.2 General Assumptions ~
) Several qualifying assumptions were made during the course of this study, as outlined below:
o The evacuation time estimates represent the time required to evacuate the South Texas Project' EPZ and ~
],
analysis areas within it, and include the time '
l required for initial notification. -
o It is assumed that subsequent to initial notifica-tion, all persons within the EPZ will evacuate.
Evacuation of the EPZ will be considered complete after all evacuating vehicles are outside of tne EPZ.
l o ;.The general public will be evacuated to Shelters i outside the potential hazard area. All schools will i
be evacuated to designated Congregate Care Facilities.
O l 5023C 2-2
("N o The permanent population sector will evacuate from N~)
their places of residence. All households having more than one vehicle will only use one automobile.
This is consistent with empirical data which indicates that family members, where possible, prefer to evacuate as a unit.
o It was assumed that Matagorda County Sheriff's Department and Texas State Police personnel would restrict unauthorized access into the EPZ.
o 2
Upon notification to evacuate, school buses will be used to evacuate residents of the EPZ that have no means of transportation.
Adverse weather refers to heavy rainstorms which o
would reduce roadway capacity by 20 percent. Two
, (~T adverse weather conditions have been assessed. The first represents a condition where heavy rain would
~
result in impaired visibility and a reduction in .
. roadway capacities and travel speeds of 20%. The second condition, in addition to reduced roadway capacities and travel speeds, considers closing of portions of Routes 60 and 521 which frequently are
~
impassable due to flooding.
2.3 Summary of Methodology The computer simulation model used to perform the evacuation time estimate procedure is referred to as the NETVAC program. ,The model was developed specifically to provide evacuation time estimates and related information for use in emergency planning.
O)
\-
5023C 2-3
. -_ c .
's The NETVAC program is a traffic sinsulation model which
' uses traffic flow relationships to calculate and record traffic densities, speeds, flows, queues and-other relevant information throughout the evacuation process. Traffic is first entered at designated points in the highway network. At every simulation interval, the model processes vehicles from links (road segments) entering an intersection to the links emanating from it (outbound links or evacuation routes). The model employs a sophisticated list processing method to represent the evacuation as a series of links and nodes (intersections).
-The NETVAC model ' includes a dynamic route selection feature whereby drivers' choice of outbound links, at every .I Uitersection, is based on two criteria .,.
1. The degree to which an outbound link leads away from -
the plant, or the direction of specific evacuation _
routings where such plans exist.
~
2.- The traffic conditions on the outbound links (i.e.,
travel speeds and presence of vehicle queueing or
~
congestion).
~
] The roadway and intersection approach. capacities .
chlculated by the NETVAC program are based upon data and _
traffic flow relationships presented in the Highway Capacity Manual and the Interim Materials on Highway Capacity. Due to the dynamic route assignment mechanism, approach capacities are updated at each simulation interval to account for potential changing turning movements. The intersection control options which can be specified with the NETVAC model include intersections with traffic signals and priority control intersectio'ns (i.e., stop or yield signs).
The core of the NETVAC program is the simulation sub-
~
routine. This part of the program executes a given number of procedures at user-specified simulation intervals. The simulator includes two major logical units: the link pass and 5023C 2-4
the node pass. The link pass calculates the number of vehicles
("S that would reach the upstream node or join the queue there in a
\~- given simulation interval. The node pass calculates how many vehicles should be processed from each of the links entering a particular intersection (inbound links) to each of the outbound links. Figure 2.1 schematically represents the interrelation-ship between the link pass and node pass simulation procedures.
A more detailed description of the NETVAC program is presented in Section 5.4 2.4 Conditions Modeled
~
Pursuant to NUREG-0654, Rev. 1 guidance, evacuation time '
eftimateshavebeenpreparedforseveraltemporal,seasonaland ""
weather conditions. Estimates have been prepared for fall / winter weekday, fall / winter weeknight and summer weekend fair weather conditions. In addition, two adverse weather '
scenarios during summer conditions have been evaluated. All of
(g the above scenarios were evaluated assuming 1) refueling of
\J Unit 1 with Unit 2 under construction, and 2) Units 1 and 2 in operation with refueling of one Unit. '
_. Fair weather refers to conditions where roadways are clear and dry, and visibility is not impaired.
~ Adverse weath'er ~~
co_nditions are defined as heavy rainstorms during summer -
periods where roadway capacities are reduced by 20 percent. -
The effect of flooding has also been assessed along local ~
roadways which are frequently affected by heavy rainstorms.
(Refer to References 14 and 15.)
The various population components which have been incorporated in the evacuation conditions modeled are summarized below:
1. Fall / Winter Day: This situation represents a i
J t_ypical weekday period during the winter when school is in session and the work force is at a full l '
daytime level. Assumptions on the population levels
\2 for this condition include the following:
I 5023C 2-5 1
p d r N00E PASS I

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i O
FIGURE 2.1 - NETVAC SIMULATION FLOW OIAGHAM 5023C 2-6
jN o Permanent residents within the EPZ will (j evacuate from their place of residence; o Major work places are fully staffed at typical daytime levels; o The South Texas Project site employment is at a peak daytime level during 1) operation of Unit 1, with Unit 2 under construction, and 2)
Units 1 and 2 operational, with refueling of one Unit; o Schools are in session; and o Recreational facilities are at fall / winter daytime levels.
2
~{ 2. Fall / Winter Night: This situation reflects a
^^
typical night period when schools are not in session
~}
and the work force is at a night-time level.
Assumptions on the population levels for this ~
condition include the following:
TO
\/ o Permanent residents within the EPZ will evacuate from their places of residence;
~
~
o Major work places are at typical night-time levels; , .-
o The South Texas Project site employment is at -
an estimated peak night-time level during _
1) operation of Unit 1, with Unit 2 under ,
construction, and 2) Units 1 and 2 operational, with refueling of one Unit; o Schools are closed; and o Recreational facilities are closed.
3. Summer Weekend: The summer weekend situation
. represents a daytime period when recreational areas are at peak levels and major workplaces are at t_ypical weekend levels. Assumptions on the population levels for this condition include the
() following:
5023C 2-7
$...--. . , - -,,.n..- -. --
/)
\_/
o Permanent residents within the EPZ will evacuate from their place of resicence; o
Seasonal residents will evacuate from their place of residence; o Major work places are at typical weekeno levels; o The South Texas Project site is at a peak weekend level during 1) operation of Unit 1, with Unit 2 under construction, and 2) Units 1 and 2 operational during refueling of one Unit; o Schools are closed; and o Recreational facilities are at a peak weekend - I
__ level.
I l - -
l .
i O
M*
g D**
O W-O 5023C 2-8 )
o _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ . _ _ _ l
(n) 3.
POPULATION AND VEHICLE DEMAND ESTIMATION 3.1 General Methodology The development of vehicle demand estimates for the South Texas Project EPZ consisted of two primary steps. The first step was the determination of the number and distribution of the population to be evacuated. The second step was the determination of the appropriate number of vehicles required to evacuate each of the population sectors. Federal guidance (NUREG-0654, Rev. 1) indicates that three population categories .i 3Dould be considered: permanent residents, transients (such as employees and visitors to recreational areas), and persons in ..
special facilities (such as school and medical facilities, -
nursing homes, etc.).
The methodology used to develop the total population and vehicle demand estimates within the South Texas Project EPZ
( ) incorporates intrinsic double-counting. For example, it is reasonable to assume that a portion of the identified employees within the area and visitors to recreational areas are also -
permanent residents within the EPZ. In addition, school ...
c.hildren, treated as an independent special facility category, a,re also included in the permanent population estimates. It should be noted that this double-counting of population, .
however, is done intentially to simulate traffic friction on the network due to travel home prior to the actual evacuation.
In short, this technique double counts a portion of the population, but more accurately reflects anticipated vehicle activity on the evacuation network.
In Sections 3.2, 3.3, 3.4 and 3.5, totals for each population-category are presented for 22-1/2 sectors, at one-mile increments for the South Texas Project EPZ. The population totals by evacuation Analysis Case are summarized in Section 3.6.
o 5013C 3-1
3.2 Permanent Residents
,7
\- Permanent residents are defined as those persons having year-round residences within the South Texas Project EPZ.
Permanent population estimates for the South Texas Project EPZ were based upon 1980 Federal Census Tract and Enumeration District data and disaggregated by sector based on housing locations on U.S. Geological Survey topographic maps. The average number of persons per household, based on the 1980 Census of Housing,;was applied to the housing counts to estimate the total number of permanent residents located within the EPZ. The permanent resident population within the South .
Texas Project 10-mile EPZ is estimated at 4,490. Figure 3.1 presents the 1980 permanent population distribution by sector.
In addition to the permanent residents described above, [
the population of 4,667 persons in the town of Palacios, although not within the EPZ, was also included in the ~
evacuation. simulation of the southwestern portion of the EPZ,
. {'\, to more accurately reflect possible conflicts of vehicles evacuating through this area. This additional population is
-not included in Figure 3.1 or Table 3.1, however, since it is located outside of the South Texas Project EPZ.
, .s.
Auto-Owning Permanent Population It was assumed that one venicle would evacuate from each permanent resident household. This assumption is consistent with empirical data indicating the tendency of persons to evacuate, where possible, as a family unit (Reference 16). The 1980 Census of Housing includes information on the average number of persons per household for the various census subdivisio_ns within the EPZ. Occupancy rates for the South Texas Project EPZ area range from 2.5 to 3.4 persons per household. _These relationships were applied to the permanent population totals, to obtain estimates of the vehicle demand associated with the permanent resident population category.
5013C 3-2
l1C1l l G7 l C O-1 ISIIe Ring NNw '
l. 237 l 88 y'4 gogg '
O o O ,
6
! [ l 347 l 3 # #
O O b
new a 17 W !
O o e g 0 mE l_ 1 6 7 l 1
8 g, O O
\ ' 92 8p
% 6 O O 24 Op O l 564 l s0 'I OO 3 p, , a ww
3
'g d
* ## o
, e Eat l 4051 s O 3 9 y O
. e s
g M
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O O
e
$ $e ggs
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s
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4
1 3
W $ $ 0 $ $ $ " 89 0 o o a e, g es
$ O e
e 8 E l 147 l
O o s
" p
$ 0 0 0 0 0
p $ e 0 o O o
e e o
l 345 l '
"
O o 0 6 0
wsw
rp O
o EeE
e 8 g
l 80 l l #e #
0 *
'O #8 0 O* POPULATION TOTALS sw
O
$ *E' ??!. SC: *N.* 14. SC:
l 339 l 1s o SE
ggg 0-1 O O s-e 638 1,079 '
2, -
3 i-a O O e-r 434 i,513 saw
saE 2-3 107 107 7-e 758 2,271 s i 1 88 1 I 18 l 3-4 53 160 s-9 555 2,826 l g l 281 4-s 441 s-102.164 4,490 FIGURE 3.1 - 1980 PERMANENT POPULATION WITHIN THE i
SOUTH TEXAS PROJECT PLUME EXPOSURE EPZ l
i .
.; ; I, '
r l
Census Tract and Enumeration District population data and the
("}
V associated vehicle demand are presented in Appendix 1.
Non-Auto-Owning Permanent Population The 1980 U.S. Census of Housing was used to identify the number of households within the EPZ without access to a vehicle. A summary of this data is also presented in Appendix 1.
It was assumed that school buses will be used to evacuate residents of tne EPZ that have no means of transportation. For the purpose of this evacuation time estimate study, an average ,;
vehicle occupancy rate of 40 persons per bus was used to develop the vehicle demand estimates for the non-auto-owning permanent residents. ,
3.3 Seasonal Residents .
('N The seasonal resident population segment includes those
\) persons who reside in the area on a temporary basis, particularly during the summer period. Seasonal residences are typically suitable for occupancy for only a portion of the year.
Seasonal housing data for the South Texas Project area ~~
kasobtainedfromthe1980U.S.CensusofHousing. Seasonal
~
r'esident population estimates were developed from an average ,
~
household size based on seasonal housing occupancy surveys conducted for this population segment by HMM Associates at other sites (Reference 17). The seasonal population totals were disaggregated by sector based on a review of U.S.
Geological survey maps identifying locations likely to have seasonal land uses.
The total seasonal resident population within the South Texas Project EPZ is estimated to be 1,447. Figure 3.2 presents the seasonal resident population, by sector. This data along with the corresponding vehicle demand for the
}seasonalpopulationsegment, which was developed based on an 5013C 3-4 e
=
u 0 l m ,
i o i N
O -
e. v O
, g , [ 245 l ,
g' N I 4s21
.E l 0 I P
4 e o l 0 l [
3 N Esse l 0 l 2,6 s00 pge,,g to # LEGEM 7
u [ 27 I 4 School population, applicable to g % 2 3 8
w whiter weekday conditions.
o E l 3,070l 0 work torce population, appuc. bas to winter weekday conditions.
The plant employment assumes a condition when Unit 1 is refueing and Unit 2 is under
[ O ] construction. With both Units 1 i 12 in operation and one Unit refueing, employment is ESE l 0 l estimated at 800.
9 Seasonal population, applicable 9
% gg to summer weekend conditions.,
POPULATION TOTALS
",',? 53. %=: " . ' "'U. %3:
[ 92 l l 828 l 0-1 3,000 3,000 s-a 27 3,272 j 1-2 0 3,000 s-7 70 3,342
, 2-3 0 3,000 7-e 222 3,584
=
s-4 0 3,000 s-e 422 3,esa l 0 l [ 664 l l 0 ] 4-8 245 3,245D-10 1,4205,406 FIGudE 3.2 - SEASONAL, TRANSIENT AND SPECIAL FACILITY POPULATION WITHIN THE SOUTH TEXAS PROJECT PLUME EXPOSURE EPZ i ,
. ,' e IP
( average of two vehicles per seasonal household, are presented in Appendix 2.
3.4 Transient Population The transient population category includes persons in the work force, recreational areas, or short term visitors to the area. Currently there are no motel or hotel facilities within the EPZ.
The major employment facilities in the area include the South Texas Project site, Celanese Chemical and OUPont Chemical. During operation of Unit 1, with Unit 2 under c.onstruction, the peak weekday employee population at the plant is estimated at 2,680. With Units 1 and 2 both operational, the peak weekday population is estimated at 800 employees. _
Celanese Chemical, located approximately five miles northeast of the plant, employs a total of about 350 persons; and DuPont
(~) Chemical, located about seven miles east of the plant has a
\-
total of 100 workers.
_ The only additional major transient facility within the _
EPZ is the South Texas Project Visitors Center. It is estimated that approximately 320 persons may be visitin'g the Ce_nter and public area on a peak day. The peak estimated transient population during a weekoay is also shown on Figure
~
3.2 in rose format.
For evacuation traffic flow simulation purposes, 700 persons at Matagorda Beach (southeast of the EPZ) were included for the summer weekend condition, in order to more accurately l simulate vehicle activity during an evacuation of this area.
l Although Matagorda Beach is beyond the 10-mile EPZ Doundary, it is reasonable to assume that since the area is landlocked, l persons there may also choose to evacuate.
For purposes of estimating the number of vehicles l associated with the transient population segment, an auto
()occupancyfactorof1.0employeepervehiclewasused for all work force facilities. The occupancy factor used for persons 5013C 3-6
i at the V1.sitors Center was 3 persons per vehicle, while 2.5 persons per vehicle was used for the beach users. These
\_/
occupancy rates were developed for an estimate of peak vehicle demand, where employment and recreational areas are fully occupied.
The resultant vehicle demand would be conservative for periods where occupancy of these areas were below peak levels.
A listing of all transient population facilities, along with their associated population and vehicle demand is presented in Appendix 3. Some douDle-counting of total vehicle demand may be inherent in these estimates since a portion of tne identified employees and persons at the Visitors Center may also be permanent residents of the South Texas Project EPZ.
However, this more accurately simulates traffic conditions on
l Ehe network due to employees or other transients traveling home ^'
kriortotheiractualevacuation. "
3.5 Special Facilities '
The special facility population within the South Texas s/ Project EPZ includes three school facilities.
Currently there are no hospitals, nursing homes or incarceration facilities
}ithintheSouthTexasProjectEPZ. ~
The three school facilities within the EPZ include the ~~
Tidehaven Intermediate School, with 211 students and 11 staf f -
members; Tidehaven High School, with 247 students and 13 staff members; and Matagorda Elementary School, which has 143 students and 19 staff members. The population at each facility was verified through a telephone survey conducted by HMM in June 1984 and reflect data for the 1983-1984 school year.
Since no information was available on the number of staff members at the two Tidehaven facilities, the same teacher: student ratio as that presented in HMM's 1980 evacuation study, was used to estimate the number of staff l members at these schools. Figure 3.2 includes the school population,"by sector.
The vehicle demand associated with the schools within the i
O- EPZ was based on a bus loading capacity of 30 In students.
5013C 3-7
o f
l.
L VI) addition, an auto occupancy factor 1.0 person per vehicle was l used for staff members. Population and vehicle demand data for i
the three school facilities within the EPZ is presented in Appendix 3.
3.6 Evacuation Analysis Case Population Totals Table 3.1 summarizes the population totals for each of the previously identified evacuation Analysis Cases. A brief description of the population within each of these areas is presented below: .
~
Analysis Case 1 (0-2 miles, 360 U): Area 1 .
This case includes all of the area within two miles of the .
South Texas Project as well as areas beyond two miles within the site boundary. There are no permanent residents within
().thisarea. The only population consists of the plant employees and persons at the Visitors Center.
l .
Analysis Case 2 (0-5 miles, 90 SE); Areas 1 & 2*
~
The area in Analysis Case 2 includes the area covered by -
Case 1 and a small area east of the plant bounded by Rt. 521 on "
the north and the five-mile radius on the east. There are 26 permanent residents within the area.
Analysis Case 3 (0-5 miles, 90 NE): Areas 1 & 3 Analygis Case 3 covers the area in Case 1 and the area out to five miles northeast of the site. In addition to 146 permanent re_sidents, Celanese Chemical employs approximately 245 persons during a weekday in this area.
O l
5013C 3-8
l
[]
V TABLE 3.1 POPULATION TOTALS BY ANALYSIS CASE i
l ANALYSIS CASE 1 l (0-2 Miles 3600) l l
l l-__--__-_-_-_____-___________---______________---____-___----_-__--
1 l l Fall / Winter Fall / Winter Summer l l Population Category Weekday Weeknight Weekend l 0 0 lPermanentResident 0 l
l Seasonal Resident 0 0 0 l =
I 0 0 I l School
~ 0 l ...
Work Force
2,680 2,680 2,680 I ,,
g Transient ** 320 0 320 l .
lTOTALPOPULATION 3,000 2,680 3,000 l -
l l -_._...--__.__-------- -___----_- ___.-_-_-__--_---_-___ _.-_----_------___-
di ANALYSIS CASE 2 l l (0-5 Miles, 900 SE) l l ~
I l---___---____--__--__-_____________---__-______-______-_-___,---______-l . s.
I I
l -~ Fall / Winter Fall / Winter Summer l l PQpulation Category Weekday Weeknight Weekend I _
l Permanent Resident 26 26 26 l
l Seasonal Resident 0 0 0 l l
0 0 l l School 0 g l Work Force
2,680 2,680 2,680 l l
Transient ** 320 0 l 320 g 3 I 3,
i[S[#h[S'[IS",__________________',g26 l ,_ . _ _____________ 2{g6 , _ _ __ _ __ _ _ _ _____,g 2 6 g
\
! Includes South Texas Project site employment at peak levels during i operation of Unit 1, witn Unit 2 under construction. With both Units 1 and
2 in operation, and the refueling of one lnit, tnis peak employment level
! would decrease to 800 employees.
{ ,q'*VisitorsCenterandpublicarea.
(y Includes peak estimates of transients at the South Texas l 5013C 39 l
l l
i -
TABLE 3.1 (continued)
! _ pb POPULATION TOTALS 8Y ANALYSIS CASE l ANALYSIS CASE 3 l l (0-5 Miles, 900 tE) l l
l 1
' l--------------------------------------------------------------------------1 I
i l Fall / Winter Fall / Winter Summer !
Population Category Weekoay Weeknignt Weekend gPermanent Resident 146 146 146 l Seasonal Resident l
0 0 0 l l '
0 0 l ~
gSchool 0 g lW5Fk Force
2,925 2,785 2,785 l Tr'ansient** 320 0 320
! I
]
I l TOTAL POPULATION 3,391 2,931 3,251 l . ,
l ANALYSIS CASE 4 l l (0-5 Miles, 900 NW) l ~
~
l l l , l --
1 I l- Fall / Winter Fall / Winter Summer 1 l Population Category Weekday Weeknight Weekend l _
I P 161 161 161 I 1 ermanent Resident I Seasonal Resident 0 0 0 l 0 I I School 0 0 I
l Work Force' 2,680 2,680 2,680 l l l l Transient ** 320 0 320 l
1 I g TOTAL POPULATION 3,161 2,841 3,161 g.
Includes South Texas Project site employment at peak levels during operation of Unit 1, with Unit 2 under construction. With both Units 1 and 2 in operation, and the refueling of one Unit, this peak employment level would decrease to 800 employees.
C'VisitorsCenterandpublicarea. Includes peak estimates of transients at the South Texa 5013C 3-10
i l O TABLE 3.1 (continued) d POPULATION TOTALS BY ANALYSIS CASE l
t ANALYSIS CASE 5 l l (0 5 Miles, 900 SW) l I
I I
I l_________
I
... _________________________ ________________________ ... ....__ .I I
I Fall / Winter Fall / Winter Sumer l l Population Category Weekday Weeknight Weekend l lPermanentResident 105 105 105 l
l ! Seasonal Resident 0 0 0 I ,
l School 0 0 0 l l Work Force
2,680 2,680 2,680 l g
lg Transient **
i i
320 0 320 '[
g TOTAL POPULATION 3,105 2,785 3,105 .
__...__________...._____ .............____ ...._________ . _ _... ..___...g l ANALYSIS CASE 6 l l (0 5 Miles, 3600) l l -
l -
I g- I I_ l l..
l Population Category Fall / Winter Fall / Winter Summer l .
Weekday Weeknight Weekend -
Permanent Resident 438 438 438 '
l Seasonal Resident 0 l
0 0 l l
l School 0 0 0 l l Work Force' 2,925 2,785 2,785 l lTransient**
g 320 0 l 320 g
l TOTAL POPULATION 3,683 3,223 3 543 l i ..... _____________..___......... ____ ... .........___ ........_.._....,.....;
[
i Includes South Texas Project site employment at peak levels during operation of Unit 1, with Unit 2 under construction. With both Units 1 and 2 in operation, and the refueling of one Unit, this peak employment level would decrease to 800 employees.
l r b Visitors Center and public area.OO Includes peak estimates of transients at l 5013C 3 11
A TABLE 3.1 (continued)
Cl POPULATION TOTALS BY ANALYSIS CASE l
ANALYSIS CASE 7 l
l (0-10 Miles, 900 SE)
I l I I l
--_----______.....-__lI I
l i Fall / Winter Fall / Winter Sunrner l Population Category Weekday Weeknight Weekend Permanent Resident 1,432 -
1,432 1,432 Seasonal Resident 0 0 l
1,328 l ,
(School 162 0 0 lW E Force
2,750 2,710 l ^'
2,750 l l Transient** 320 0 320 I "
1 -
fTOTALPOPULATION 4,664 4,142 5,830 I
l ,
l ANALYSIS CASE 8
)1 (0-10 Miles, 900 NE) l I l l- I i
1 ,_____...-________- --....._______.........- _-..-_.._____... __...... .__l.
I i l- Fall / Winter Fall / Winter l
, l Population Category Weekday Summer ! -
I Weeknight Weekend l gPermanent Resident 853 853 853 ig ISeasonal Resident 0 0 0 l School 0 0 0 l Work Force
2,925 l
2,785 2,785 l l
l Transient ** 320 0 320 l lT0 LA I0N 4,0 8 I_{Ag_ 3,638 3, 58 I Includes South Texas Project site employment at peak levels during operation of 1) nit 1, with Unit 2 under construction. Witn both Units 1 and
2 in operation, and the refuelin
! would decrease to 800 employees.g of one Unit, this peak employment level
( j o Includes peak estimates of transients at the South Texas Project site
! V Visitors Center and public area.
5013C 3-12
TABLE 3.1 (continued)
( POPULATION TOTALS BY ANALYSIS CASE l ANALYSIS CASE 9 l l (0 10 Miles, 900 NW) l l
l l
l_________________________________________________________
l l
l Fall / Winter Fall / Winter Sumer l l Population Category Weekday Weeknight Weekend l l
lPermanentResident 1,392 1,392 1,392 l Seasonal Resident 0 0 I
27 i s 482 l chool . 0 0 I J
l lWesk Force
2,680 2,680 2,660 l .-
Translent** 320 0 320 _
i g TOTAL POPULATION 4,874 -
4,072 1 4,419 g hll V
l ANALYSIS CASE 10 (0-10 Miles, 900 SW) l l
l l.._._____________________________________________________________
l l
l ...
Fall / Winter Fall / Winter Summer l l Fopulation Category Weekday Weeknight Weekend l Perinanent Resident 813 813 l 813 ;
l Seasonal Resident 0 0 I
92 l
School 0 0 0 I g
(Work Force' 2,680 2,680 2,680 I Transient ** 320 0 320 I
I I
___ _____ . __________ I ............... .._____.______...I___. I o
Includes South Texas Project site employment at peak levels during operation of Unit 1, with Unit 2 under construction. With both Units 1 and 2 in operation, and the refuelin would decrease to 800 employees.g of one Unit, this peak employment level Includes peak estimates of trarsients at the South Texas Project site V(?OVisitors Center and public area.
5013C 3-13 f
(}
V TABLE 3.1 (continued)
POPULATION TOTALS BY ANALYSIS CASE l ANALYSIS AREA 11 l (Entire EPZ) 1 I
I i
1_-_---__------__---__----____--_______-_-_-_-__-_____-___-_-_-____-_-__--__-
l l Fall / Winter Fall / Winter Summer l Population Category Weekday Weeknight Weekend lPermanentResident 4,490 4,490 4,490 Seasonal Resident l
0 0 1,447 l
School 644 0 1 ~~
0 g lW3rk Force' 2,995 2,815 2,855 l
^'
IT~
l ransient** 320 0 320 I- ~~
I .
I lTOTAL POPULATION 8,449 7,305 9,112 I
_,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1 -
i
-(D
\s /
~
.~
l l
l Includes South Texas Project site employment at peak levels during
< cperation of unit 1, with Unit 2 under construction. With both units 1 and 2 in operation, and the refueling of one Unit, this peak employment level i
would decrease to 800 employees.
Includes peak estimates of transients at the South Texas Project site
( Visitors Center and public area.
5013C 3-14
Analysis Case 4 (0-5 miles, 90 0 NW):
( } Areas 1 & 4 Analysis case 4 includes the area in Case 1 as well as the '
area northwest of the site out to five miles. Tnere are 161 residents within the area.
Analysis Case 5 (0-5 miles, 90 SW): Areas 1 & 5 The area in Case 1 and the area south and southwest of the site out to five miles are included in Analysis Case 5. There are 105 permanent residents within this area.
i
} Analysis Case 6 (0-5 miles, 3600): Areas 1, 2, 3, 4& 5 ~
Analysis Case 6 includes the entire 5-mile radius of the -
South Texas Project site. There are 438 persons residing
(~ within the area. In addition to the plant, there are also 245
(/ employees during a weekday and 320 persons at the Visitors Center.
Analysis Case 7 (0-10 miles, 90 SE): Areas 1, 2&6 Analysis Case 7 includes the area in Case 2 and the area ,
~
out to ten miles bounded by Route 521 on the north and the Colorado River on the west. There are 1,432 permanent residents and 1,328 seasonal residents in this area. In addition, one school with a population of 162 is located in the area. Transients include the site workers, DuPont employees and persons at the Visitors Center.
U Analysis Case 8 (0-10 miles, 90 NE): Areas 1, 3 & 7 This case includes the area covered by Case 3 as well as
) the area out to ten miles bounded oy the Colorado River on the east and Route 521 on the south. The population within this 5013C 3-15
- ~. .
l l
, [)
U area includes 853 permanent residents, employees at the site j and Celanese Chemical and persons at the Visitors Center.
l i
Analysis Case 9 (0-10 miles, 90 NW): Areas 1, 4 & 8 I
Analysis Case 9 includes the area in Case 4 and the area between the Colorado River on the east ano Route 521 on the l
l south from five to ten miles of the plant. There are 1,392 and I 27 permanent and seasonal residents within this area, i
respectively.
The two Tidehaven school facilities include '
population of 482 persons. The transient population includes I the site employees and the Visitors Center. .-
! Analysis Case 10 (0-10 miles, 90 SW): Areas 1, 5 & 9 l
t Analysis Case 10 covers the area in Case 5 and the area from five to ten miles bounded by Route 521 on the north and the Colorado River on the east. The population in this area 1ncludes 813 permanent and 92 seasonal residents, the plant employees and persons at the Visitors Center. .
Analysis Case 11 (Full EPZ): All Areas '
Analysis Case 11 coters the entire South Texas Project EPZ. A total of 4,490 persons reside in the EPZ on a permanent basis wnile 1,447 resioe on a seasonal basis. The three schools in the EPZ have a total population of 644. The transient population includes 2,995 employees and 320 persons
at the Visitors Center on a weekday during refueling of Unit 1 witn Unit 2 under construction. With botn Units 1 and 2 at the South Texas Project Site in operation, the peak number of l employees within the EPZ is estimated to be 1,115.
! i p
i 5013C 3-16
(T 4. THE EVACUATION ROADWAY NETWORK V
4.1 Network Definition In order to estimate evacuation clear-times, an evaluation of the roadway network likely to be used by departing vehicles was undertaken in 1984. In defining the evacuation roadway network, HMA Associates relied heavily on the following sources of information:
11 County, State, local and USGS maps of the EPZ area,
2) Discussions with County law enforcement officials,
. and ((
3) A comprehensive field survey of the Plume Exposure .
EPZ.
O The evacuation roadway network for the South Texas Project EPZ was previously defined as part of the 1980 study. This _
roadway network was defined based upon a general radial dispersion of trips, with consideration of vehicle demands and roadway and intersection capacities. The traf fic network .
e'lements considered in the evacuation modeling consist of the ,'
major streets and intersections within the EPZ. The major streets include roadways of the following classifications:
o Arterial Streets. As characterized by continuity of travel and traffic controls and geometric designs which enhance traffic flow and safety. These l
i roadways serve primarily as connectors of major l
business, population or recreation areas. Examples j gf main arterials are Routes 60 and 521. <
l l
l 5024C 41
f Y
(~] oP Collector Streets. Links between residential areas served by local roads and arterial streets. These are characterized by lower design standards and frequent stops at minor intersections. Examples of collector streets includg Routes 1468 and 2853.
..The smaller local residential roadways are not specifically evaluated as part of the model simulation but are taken into 2
account as part of the vehicle loading process. The primary A
evacuation routings are indicated on Figure 4.1.
i
, ;. , 4.2 Evacuation Route Descriptions '
The Reception and Congregate Care Facility locations to be used by evacuees will be developed as part of the on-going offsite radiological emergency planning effort being conducted ~
for the South Texas Project. Prima'lry evacuation routings were ci
(~'j developed so as to permit a general"rt. dial travel pattern away
\/ .from the South Texas Project. Descriptstons of the primary evacuation routes for the various evacuation Analysis Cases are
~
outlined below:
~
l
.. Analysis Cas'e 1 ( Area 1) ~
o South Texas Project access roads o FM 521 m w e Analysis Case 2 (Areas 1 & 2)-
o South Texas Project access roads
-o ,FM 521 Analysis Case 3 (Areas 1 & 3)
/~3 o South Texas Project access roads 0 FM 521 o FM 3057 o
Road east of Wilson Creek oil field 5024C 4-2
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[
FIGURE 4.1 - PRIMARY EVACUATION ROUTES LEGEND
" Prfmary Evacuation Routee
() Analysis Case 4 (Areas 1 & 4) o South Texas Project access roads
, o FM 521 o FM 1095 l
0 i Road east of Wilson Craek oil field 1 Analysis Case 5 (Areas 1 & 5) o South Texas Project access roads o FM 521
_- o FM 1095 2
. o Citrus Grove access road ..
Analysis Case 6 (Areas 1, 2, 3, 4 & 5) o South Texas Project access roads
() o o
FM 521 FM 3057
_ o FM 1095 o -
Road east of Wilson Creek oil field o . ..-
Citrus Grove access road Analysis Case 7 (Areas 1, 2 & 6) ~
o South Texas Project access roads o FM 521 o Texas 60 o
Selkirk Island access road Analysis Case 8 (Areas 1, 3 & 7) o South Texas Project access roaos o FM 521
() o o
Selkirk Island access road FM 3057 i
5024C 4-4
o FM 2668 O o FM 2078 o Texas 60 o Road east of Wilson Creek oil field Analysis Case 9 (Areas 1, 4 & 8) o South Texas Project access roads o FM 521 o FM 1095 o
Road east of Wilson Creek oil field E o FM 1468 '
~
o Texas 35 ~
o FM 459 ~-
o FM 2853 . I o Buckeye to Elmaton Road ~
Analysis Case 10 (Areas 1, 5 & 9) o South Texas Project access roads o FM 521 ~
o FM 2853 ' ~~
~
o FM 1095 -
o Road from Oyster Lake area -
5
_ l l
Analysis Case 11 (Areas 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, & 9) 1 I,
o All roadways listed above l 4.3 Characterizing the Evacuation Network After defining and mapping tne links (roadway sections) and nodes (intersections) included in the evacuation roadway network, both physical and operational characteristics of the 5024C 4-5
system were inventoried. Using both field studies and available maps, the geometric descriptions for each component of the network were compiled. Field data included the number of lanes, lane widths, shoulder widths, distances to obstructions, grades, cruise speeds, traffic controls and other data necessary to calculate the traffic capacity of each link in the system. Link lengths were measured from available maps. Traffic capacity information for each intersection in the network was also collected.
For the purpose of identification and for subsequently calculating evacuation times, the network was coded into a
=
I sistem of links and nodes. The evacuation network, which was m.
used for the computer simulation, is shown in Figure 4.2. The -
f-igure shows the locations and number codes for each link and -
node in the network.
The data from these efforts were coded and keypunched for input to the NETVAC model. The model, in turn, provides a listing of the evacuation roadway network and its characteristics. The network listing, presented in Appendix 4, describes the geometric characteristics of each link in the -
network. The listing also describes the possible turning .._
movements from each node and the traffic capacity of each link .
1,n the network (vehicles per hour that can be accommodated on each link during an evacuation). The listing of geometric -
characteristics and capacities is provided by the preprocessor for the NETVAC computer model prior to the actual evacuation simulation calculations.
s 6
5024C 4-6
O ..
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FIGURE 4.2 - EVACUATION ROADWAY NETWORK LEGEND h Network Node p-,,,
"" Network Link
('T 5. EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE METHODOLOGY V
5.1 Evacuation Analysis Cases Pursuant to NUREG-0654, Rev. 1 guidance, evacuation time estimates have been prepared for the area within two miles of the. South Texas Project site and for areas approximating 90 0 sectors from 0-5 miles and 90 0 sectors from 0-10 miles of the plant. In addition, estimates have been developed for the entire EPZ. The sector areas have been defined to correspond to various combinations of the previously identified Areas, as ,
indicated below:
Analysis Case Areas Included ,
1. 0-2 miles, 3600 1 -
2. 0-5 miles, 900SE 1,2
3. 0-5 miles, 900NE 1,3
4. 0-5 miles, 900NW 1,4
/~N 5. 0-5 miles, 900SW 1,5 kss ) 6. 0-5 miles, 3600 1,2,3,4,5 i
7. 0-10 miles, 900SE 1,2,6
8. 0-10 miles, 900NE 1,3,7
3. 0-10 miles, 900NW 1,4,8 k&. 0-10 miles, 900SW 1,5,9 ,
l1.
Entire EPZ 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9
,- Time estimates have been prepared for (1) fall / winter weekday _ fair weather conditions, (2) fall / winter weeknight fair .
weather conditions, (3) summer weekend fair weather conditions, (4) summer weekend adverse weather conditions with heavy rain i
only, and (5) summer weekend adverse weather conditions with heavy rain and flooding.
5.2 Initial Notification The EPZ surrounding the South Texas Project will have a notification system consistent witn NUREG-0654/ FEMA-REP-1, REV.1 r~s guidelines. Tnis system will De used by County and State 1
( ,) officials to alert the population to turn on their radios and i television sets. Pursuant to NUREG 0654, Rev. 1 guidance, notification messages will commence on the designated t
, 5025C 5-1 '
l television and EBS radio stations immediately. Within 15
[) minutes the population within ten miles of the plant will have
received an informational or instructional message.
If evacuation is deemed necessary, the timing of the order to evacuate and notification measures will be controlled by the State and County emergency preparedness officials. They may choose to alert and mobilize an emergency response work force to control and expedite evacuation prior to the evacuation order.
5.3 Evacuation Preparation Times and Departure Distributions .
, It is assumed that no vehicles will begin to evacuate during the 15-minute initial notification period. It is also ,
assumed that there will be a minimum preparation / mobilization time of 15 minutes for all population segments. Accordingly, no vehicles will begin to evacuate until 30 minutes following lT the initial notification. Network loading distribution V
assumptions for the permanent, transient and special facilities populations are described below, and summarized in Figure 5.1. _
Permanent Population Permanent residents with access to automobiles will take
. varying amounts of time to begin evacuating. Some persons will leave as quickly as possible; most will take some time to prepare, pack valuables and clothes and then depart; and some will take added time to secure property before departing. In addition, actual departing and preparation times may vary according to the perceived severity of a particular evacuation order. a Based upon a review of the site-specific characteristics of the SoutD Texas Project EPZ, a review of available empirical data, and discussions with County and HL&P emergency 1
) preparedness officials, it was assumed that there would be a
[/
N_ i two-hour period over which the permanent residents would begin !
5025C 5-2
NOTIFICATION /PREPARA,TlqN(MOBILIZATION TIN E DISTRIBUTIONS k p 100 -
g
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g. = I
= i I ,' S I 3 I %
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i 80 -
5 I E
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h 20 -
I i
l 9
/a 1
1 I
I i .
I O , , , , , , , ,
O 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 Elapsed Time from Decision to Evacuate (Minutes)
FIGURE 5.1 - NOTIFICATION / PREPARATION / MOBILIZATION TIME DISTRIBUTIONS t- . ?; , ,' i fr
~
f') to evacuate. That is, permanent population households with
~'
vehicles would begin to evacuate between 30 and 150 minutes after the initial notification. It was further assumed that 15 percent of the permanent population would begin to evacuate between 30 and 60 minutes following initial notification, 40 percent would begin to evacuate between 60 and 90 minutes, an additional 40 percent would Degin to evacuate between 90 and 120 minutes, and the remaining 5 percent would begin to evacuate between 120 and 150 minutes of the initial notification.
For permanent residents without access to a vehicle, it is ,;
.a:ssumed that a one- to two-hour period would be required for ,
preparations related to the busing of transport-dependent __
persons. Therefore, vehicles associated with the transport- .
dependent permanent population would begin to evacuate between ,
90 and 150 minutes following initial notification.
Transient Popu.:.a t ion
\m-It was assumed that the wnrk force would receive initial -
eatification promptly and that the majority of the work force .._
would be released expeditiously (i.e., within 30 minutes .
Subsequent to notification). It was further assumed that a maximum of 30 minutes may be needed for a portion of the work -
force to prepare to evacuate. This preparation time would include the time required for securing businesses, shutting down active operations, etc. Therefore, the work force preparation / mobilization times would be uniformly distributed over a 30-minute period. This distribution is also considered reasonable for the other transient population categories within the South Texas Project EPZ. Therefore, all of the transient population vehicles would begin to evacuate between 30 and 60 minutes following initial notification. That is, vehicles associated with the transient population would begin to
() evacuate during a 30-minute period, beginning 30 minutes subsequent to initial notification.
5025C 5-4
4
( ) Special Facilities d
It was assumed that the school facilities within the EPZ would also receive initial notification promptly. All public schools would be evacuated via bus to designated Congregate Care facilities. For school facilities, it was assumed that up to a one-hour period would be required to load students onto buses, subsequent to the 15-minute notification period and a 15-minute minimum preparation period. Accordingly, school buses were loaded onto the evacuation network from the period between 30 and 90 minutes, following initial notification. _;
5.4 Evacuation Simulation Evacuations were simulated using the population and ,
vehicle demand distribution data, evacuation network data, and evacuation preparation and departure time distribution n
assumptions discussed in previous sections.
(_) The actual simulated evacuations were performed using the NETVAC computer program. The following describes the general structure of the -
.model and three of its major features: the dynamic ro,ute __
Jelection, the priority treatment of flow at intersections not having traffic signals, and the roadway and intersection capacity calculations. .
General Structure NETVAC is organized in four basic units (procedures): the main program, the data procedure, the preprocessor, and the simulator. This section briefly explains the functions of each of these units. The main program controls the entire execution. It starts by calling on the data procedure, which reads in the data and the execution instructions, then calls in the preprocessor which performs some preliminary capacity
() calculations. Next, the main program controls the simulation itself and the reporting of the network conditions at specified 5025C 5-5
(v') intervals. This program also' controls the rest of the reports .
i and the length of the simulation by terminating the program once the network is empty.
The data procedure reads in the network, the parameters and the options to be used in the simulation. The data procedure performs a set of checks on the network to ensure connectivity and validity. It also performs a set of checks on the input data to identify coding errors and produces a set of warnings if unlikely (but possible) situations are encountered.
The preprocessor procedure converts the physical description of each link into measures of capacity, speed and ,;
_dynsity. For each specified type of link, the preprocessor computes two types of capacity: ...
o Section capacity - which is the capacity along the link regardless of downstream intersection restrictions; and v
o Approach capacity - which is the capacity of the link to handle vehicles approaching the downstream _
intersection.
Section capacities are associated with highway sections whereas the traffic flow through intersections is controlled by .
the approach capacity. The NETVAC program computes both capacities since they serve different purposes. The section capacity serves as an upper bound on the flow that can move along a link, restricting the number of vehicles that will reach the intersection during a simulation interval and the number of vehicles that can be loaded onto a link from the int e rsec tion . The approach capacity, on the other hand, limits the number of vehicles that can actually move through the intersection. Vehicles that reach the intersection but cannot move through it are assigned to a queue.
()
The NETVAC simulator includes two separate procedures, the link pass and the node pass. The link pass handles the flow on 5025C 5-6
the links while the node pass handles the transfer of flow from
'( ~}
link to link.
Dynamic Route Selection
, Tne NETVAC program does not use a pre-specified set of turning movements at each intersection; instead, the turning movements are determined at each simulation interval as a function of the changing traffic conditions and directionality of the links. Drivers approaching an intersection are assumed to make a choice of outbound (away from the intersection) links ,;
.gased on how fast this outbound link can get them to safety. ,.
This, in turn, is a function of the direction of the outbound __
links away from the hazard area and the traffic conditions on -
the outbound links. ,
The route selection procedure used in the NETVAC program reflects the two above-mentioned choice criteria through a
() User-supplied " preference factor" which is specified for each link and the speeds on each of the outbound links. In order to facilitate the explanation of the route choice mechanism, let -
RF j denote the preference factor for the J-th outbound, link _
at some intersection. In other words, the relative 'a priori' ,
preference of link j is PF /3j PFk k where the sum goes _
over all the links (k's) emanating out of the node under .
consideration (including j). The choice probability, or the share of drivers choosing an outbound link j out of a given intersection at (simulated) time t, Pj (t), is determined as a function of the preference factors and the speeds on all the outbound links as:
PF x U (t)
P j (t) =
2 PF .x U (t) '
() where U j (t) is the speed on link j at time t. It should be noted that driver behavior during an evacuation is assumed to 5025C 5-7
i in
() be myopic in that only information regarding the immediate outbound links at each intersection is assumed to influence route choice decisions.
The Priority Treatment Even under evacuation conditions, it can be expected that i
traffic approaching an intersection without traffic signals from certain links would have the right of way over incoming traffic from lower priority approaches. Since it is not clear that such priority would correspond to the existing .i
.1htersection controls, the input to NETVAC includes a user- m.
specified link priority parameter. This is a binary parameter __
indicating primary or secondary priority of a link. -
The volume of vehicles being processed (at every ,
intersection and at each simulation interval) and transferred from inbound to outbound links is subject to several n
() constraints which determine the effective capacity of the intersection. During the simulation, traffic coming in from all primary priority links is assigned to the intersection -
41rst, subject only to the intersection capacity constraints. ..
Lower priority traffic, on the other hand, is restricted by ,
both the capacity of the intersection and the effect of the higher priority traffic. I The capacity of the secondary priority approaches is a function of the gap acceptance behavior of the minor approach drivers and the headway districution in the primary approaches' flow. In order to model the capacity of secondary priority approaches, a capacity allocation problem procedure is utilized. The secondary priority approaches emit traffic only under onesof the following conditions: first., if there is residual intersection capacity from the primary priority traffic, flow can be emitted into the intersection from the secondary priority road subject to the residual capacity l
() constraint. Second, if the residual capacity is zero, NETVAC 5025C 5-8
--~ -
/~x
( ,) provides some small capacity for the lower priority approaches to allow for'" sneak-in" effects.
Capacity Calculations The capacity of a transportation facility is the maximum flow that can travel along the facility. The NETVAC program determines capacity in two stages: first, the preprocessor assigns a section capacity and an approach capacity to each link in the network. Second, approach capacities are updated continuously, throughout the simulation as changing turning .0
.g'avements affect the maximum volume of traffic processed along ...
each link into its downstream intersection. __
The capacity calculations are based on the Highway -
Research Board's Highway Capacity Manual. Following this .
reference, the section capacity is calculated in the prepro-cessor for links with and without physical separation between (3) opposing directions while the approach capacity is calculated
/
as a function of the physical conditions (width, parking, turning pockets, etc.), environmental conditions (area type, -
-peak hour and load factors), traffic characteristics (traffic six and percentage of turning movements) and approach type. ,
- The capacity of the 1-th approach coming into an intersection at simulation interval t, Ct (t) is given by

.
~
C f (t) =
C1 x AL(t) x AR(t) where C f is the standard capacity of link i calculated by the preprocessor and AL(t) and AR(t) are the correction factors for left and~ tight turning movements, respectively. These correction factors are a function of the percent of turning traffic, th,e approach width, and parking allowance, and do not apply when the turning traffic is using special turning lanes
/~N or turning pockets.
(_)
5025C 5-9
] 6. ANALYSIS OF EVACUATION TIMES 6.1 Evacuation During Operation of Unit 1, with Unit 2 under Construction Evacuation time estimates for each of the evacuation Analysis Cases are presented in Table 6.1. These estimates represent the total time for vehicles within the various analysis areas to clear the EPZ. The estimates include the time required for notification, preparation and mobilization activities. *
~ -
A summary of the simulated evacuations for each of the ,
Analysis Cases follows:
t Analysis Case 1 2 Miles, 360 0 (Area 1)
Most of the vehicles evacuating from the 0-2 mile area surrounding the South Texas Project site are associated with
() employees of and visitors to the plant. The estimated time to evacuate the population within this area is approximately 105 minutes (1 hour1.157407e-5 days 2.777778e-4 hours 1.653439e-6 weeks 3.805e-7 months , 45 minutes) for fall / winter weekday, -
Call / winter night and summer weekend fair weather conditions. , __
Estimated evacuation times for summer (rain) adverse weather .
c,onditions are 125 minutes (2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months , 5 minutes), with or without the closing of roadway sections which typically flood. .
The most significant portion of the total evacuation time for both fair and adverse weather conditions is the extent of vehicle queueing and congestion which occurs along the plant access roads. The reduced roadway capacities associated with the adverse weather conditions do affect the evacuation times since vehicle demands exceed capacities along area roadways during most of the evacuation period.
4 Analysis Case 2 5 Miles, 90 SE (Areas 1 & 2)
() Evacuation of Areas 1 and 2 out to five miles of the plant would include vehicles associated with the South Texas Project l 5097C 6-1
-" - - - - - + , ---* +w---t ,----g--y- -mg-e ~- r ---my-- -- - ,----wy y--
[ TABLE 6.1 N.}i EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE
SUMMARY
WITM UNIT I IN OPERATION AND UNIT 2 UNDER CONSTRUCTION 1
Total Evacuation time (Minutes) l IWinter IWinter ISummer il Summer ISummer i l l Weekday IWeeknight l Weekend ll Weekend l Weekend I l l Fair IFale l Fair ll Adverse lAdverse l Analysis Case Areas -
Weather Weather Weather Weather l Weather I
1. 0-2 Mlle, 3600 ll l 105 l 105 l 105 ll 125 l 125 l 1 I I l ll 1 i U 1 I I I ll l l 7.0-5 Mile,900 SE II, 2 1 150 l 150 l 150 ll 165 l 170 1
~
~
l I l l ll l 1 --
1 I I I 11 1 1 .
3. 0-5 Mlle, 900 NE II, 3 l 150 1 150 1 150 ll 155 l 155 l i I I I 11 l l .
1 I I i ll l 1
4. 0-5 Mlle, 90 0 NW 11, 4 l 150 l 150 l 150 11 ISO l 150 l l 1 1 I il l l l
[L 5. 0-5 Mlle, 90 0 SW 11, 5 I
l 150 I
l 150 I
l 150 il ll 150 i
l 150 I
l l l l l ll l l
_. 1 I i 1 11 1 I .
6. 0-5 Mlle, 360 0 11, 2, 3, 4, 5 l 15 0 l 150 l 150 ll 165
~
l 170 1 l l l I il . I l -s-1 1 1 l ll l 1
~7. 0-10 Mlle, 900 SE li, 2, 6 l 165 l 165 l 175 ll 185 1 210 i
~
"J l l l l Il l I _
l 1 1 I il i 1 0 NE ,
8. 0-10 Mlle, 90 11, 3, 7 l 155 l 155 l 155 ll 160 l 160 l l l 1 I il i l i i l I il I l
9. 0-10 Mlle, 90 0NW 11, 4, 8 l 155 l 155 l 155 li 155 1 155 1 l I I I ll l l l l l l 11 l i
10. 0-10 Mlle, 900 SW 11, 5, 9 l 155 l 155 l 155 ll 155 l 155 l 1 l l I fl I I I I I I ll 1 I II. Full EPZ ll,2,3,4,5,6, i 165 i 165 i 175 ll 185 1 225 l
17, 8, 9 l l l ll l l l l l 1 Il l 1 I
includes time associated with notification, preparation and mobilization events.
2 Heavy rainstorm condition resulting in a decrease in roadway capacity and travel speeds of 205.
3 Heavy rainstorm condition with flooding, resulting in a decrease in roadway capacity and travel speeds of 20%, in addition to the closing of portions of Routes 60 and 521 5097C 6-2
(_) Project site, as well as a small number of permanent residents. The estimated fair weather evacuation time for fall / winter weekday, fall / winter night and summer weekend conditions is 150 minutes (2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months , 30 minutes). These times are primarily influenced by the time associated with preparation and mobilization activities, although vehicle queueing would occur during the early portion of the evacuation along the site access roads and along FM 521 near the site.
The estimated adverse weather evacuation time for a summer weekend rain condition is 165 minutes (2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months , 45 minutes).
With heavy rain and flooding closing portions of Routes 60 and .i 4k21, the estimated evacuation time is 170' minutes (2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months 50 ...
minutes). The reduced roadway capacities associated with both __
~
rain and rain with flooding adverse weather conditions do have -
an effect on evacuation times for this area. .
(} Analysis Case 3 5 Miles, 90 NE (Areas 1 & 3)
Analysis Case 3 includes a slightly higher permanent population total than that associated with Case 2. The -
estimated fair weather evacuation time for this case is 150 ,.
minutes (2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months , 30 minutes) for fall / winter weekday, ,
f,all/ winter night and summer weekend conditions. Again, the most significant influence on this total evacuation time is the -
preparation and mobilization time period.
The adverse weather evacuation time for this area is 155 minutes (2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months , 35 minutes) for summer rain and rain with flooding conditions. Although the reduced roadway capacities associated with adverse weather do result in some intermittent queueing, the associated vehicle delays do not significantly affect the# total evacuation time.
Analysis Case 4 5 Miles, 90 U NW (Areas 1 & 4)
(m) m Evacuation of Areas 1 and 4 out to five miles from the plant is estimated to take up to 150 minutes (2 nours, 30 5097C 6-3
l-i l
("i minutes) under fall / winter weekday, fall / winter night and summer weekend fair weather conditions. Although some vehicle queueing does occur along the site access roads, the total evacuation time is influenced primarily by the preparation and mobilization time.
Evacuation of this area under summer weekend rain and rain with flooding adverse weather conditions is also estimated to take 150 minutes (2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months , 30 minutes). The reduced roadway capacities and travel speeds associated with the adverse weather conditions do not significantly affect the total evacuation time.
i Analysis Case 5 5 Miles, 90 0 SW (Areas 1 & 5) -
The estimated evacuation times for Case 5 are identical to those associated with Case 4, as indicated on Table 6.1. The '
most significant portion of the total evacuation time for both
/~'
(' fair and adverse weather conditions is attributable to preparation and mobilization times. The reduced roadway capacities and travel speeds associated with the summer and fall / winter adverse weather conditions do not significantly -
affect the total evacuation time. ' ~~
Analysis Case 6 5 Miles 360 0 (Areas 1,2,3,4 & 5) -
Evacuation of the entire area out to approximately 5 miles of the South Texas Project site is estimated to take 150 minutes (2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months , 30 minutes) for all fair weather conditions.
The only significant vehicle queueing which would be expected during the evacuation of this area would occur in the vicinity ,
of the plant, particularly during the early portions of the i
evacuation.
During adverse weather conditions for summer weekend
_ i periods, the reduced roadway capacity and travel speeds !
1 associated with heavy rains would increase the total evacuation time by 15 minutes, to 165 minutes (2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months , 45 minutes). For 5097C 6-4
(] heavy rainstorm conditions where flooding resulted in the closing of portions of Texas Route 60 and FM 521, the estimated evacuation time is 170 minutes (2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months , 50 minutes).
Analysis Case 7 10 Miles 90 SE (Areas 1,2 & 6)
Evacuation of Areas 1,2 & 6 out to ten miles from the plant includes a higher permanent resident and work force population. It is estimated that evacuation of these sectors during fall / winter weekday and fall / winter night fair weather conditions would take 165 minutes (2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months , 45 minutes). The eftimated summer weekend fair weather evacuation time is 4 slightly higher (175 minutes) due primarily to the number of vehicles evacuating from the Matagorda Beach area under this condition. In fact, for all fair weather conditions, evacuation of this area defines the time required to evacuate the entire EPZ.
[] Estimated adverse weather evacuation times for rain and rain with flooding conditions are 185 minutes (3 hours3.472222e-5 days 8.333333e-4 hours 4.960317e-6 weeks 1.1415e-6 months , 5 ttLinutes) and 210 minutes (3 hours3.472222e-5 days 8.333333e-4 hours 4.960317e-6 weeks 1.1415e-6 months , 30 minutes), respectively. _
In addition to vehicle queueing in the vicinity of the site during the initial portion the evacuation, intermittent Queueing would occur throughout the evacuation of this area
~
under both adverse weather conditions along Texas 60, FM 521, ,
Texas 35 and FM 2668.
Analysis Case 8 10 Miles 90 NE (Areas 1, 3 & 7)
The estimated times associated with the evacuation of Areas 1,3 & 7 out to ten miles from the South Texas Project are 155 minutes (2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months , 35 minutes) under all fair weather conditions. These times are only slightly higher than those associated with evacuation under Case 3 (evacuation of Areas 1
& 3).
Under adverse weather conditions, vehicle queueing and congestion results in slightly increased evacuation times. The 5097C 6-5
(~')
V preparation and moollization times are the major influence of evacuation times under both fair and adverse weather conditions.
Analysis Case 9 10 Miles 90 NW (Areas 1, 4 & 8)
Analysis Case 10 10 Miles 90 U SW (Areas 1, 5 & 9)
Evacuation of Areas 1, 4 & 8 and 1, 5 & 9 out to ten miles of the plant would not take significantly longer than l
evacuation of these sectors out to five miles under fall / winter weekday, fall / winter night and summer weekend fair weather conditions, and for summer weekend adverse weather conditions.
The primary influence on the total evacuation times for 6 evacuation of these areas are attributable to notification and ...
p. reparation activities.
Analysis Case 11 - Entire EPZ (all Areas)
. Analysis Case 11 includes the entire South Texas Project EPZ. For fall / winter weekday fair weather conditions the
'( ) estimated evacuation time is 165 minutes (2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months , 45 minutes). This evacuation time is the same as that required f_pr evacuation of Areas 1, 2 & 6, only. Figure 6.1 presents a .
Summary of cumulative vehicle departures from the South Texas Project EPZ, as a function of time, for the fall / winter' weekday fair weather condition. A review of this figure indicates a r' ate of vehicle departures from the EPZ similar to the maximum preparation and mobilization time distributions, indicating j that roadway capacity deficiencies do not significantly affect the total evacuation times.
Corresponding vehicle departure summaries for the fall / winter night fair weather, summer weekend fair weather, summer weekend heavy rain adverse weather, and summer weekend heavy rain _with flooding adverse weather conditions are presented in Figures 6.2, 6.3, 6.4 and 6.5, respectively.
These figures indicate both the magnitude of vehicles which have left the EPZ at different time periods througnout the
()courseoftheevacuation,aswellastherateofvehicle 5097C- 6-6
8,000 -
O 7,000 -
6,000 -
8 5,000 -
!i -
t e _- ...
s .
$ 4,000 -
2 -
3,000 -
E 3
0 _
, . s.
2 WOO - ~
1,000 -
: a i a 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 Time (minutes) following Initial Alert FIGURE 6.1 - CUMULATIVE VEHICLE DEPARTURES FROM TFE SOUTH TEXAS PROJECT EPZ (UNIT 1 OPERATIONAL AND UNIT 2 UNDER CONSTRUCTION): FALL / WINTER WEEKDAY, FAIR WEATHER 5097C 6-7
8,000 -
O 7,000 -
6,000 -
8 5,000 -
N o '
Q .
h 4,000 - '
2 5
2
, 3,000 -
O 2A00 -
1,000 -
1 I I I i 1 I l 1 l
~30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 Time (minutes) following Initial Alert FIGURE 6.2 - CUMULATIVE VEHICLE DEPARTURES FROM THE SOUTH TEXAS PROJECT EPZ (UNIT 1 OPERATIONAL AND UNIT 2 UNDER CONSTRUCTION): FALL / WINTER WEEKNIGHT, FAIR WEATHER 5097C 6-8
8,000 -
O 7,000 -
6,000 -
l 8 5,000 -
r T
<g _- ~
h 4,000 - ~
2 Y
. 1
_2 3,000 -
5 _
)
2,000 - -
1,000 -
I l
8 8 e i a i a i i i 60 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 Time (minutes) following Initial Alert O
FIGURE 6.3 - CUMULATIVE VEHICLE DEPARTURES FROM THE SOUTH TEXAS PROJECT EPZ (UNIT 1 OPERATIONAL AtO UNIT 2 UtOER CONSTRUCTIGN): SUMER WEEKEto, FAIR WEATHER 5097C 6-9
8,000 -
O 7,000 -
6,000 - '
8 5,000 -
n E o ...
6 4,000 -
2 T N -
2
=
rt 3,000 -
u 2,000 -
l 1,000 - ,
l i
A 3 i i e I i l 8 l 10 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 Time (minutes) following Initial Alert FIGURE 6.4 - CUMULATIVE VEHICLE DEPARTURES FROM TFE SOUTH TEXAS PROJECT E (UNIT 1 OPERATIONAL AND UNIT 2 UNDER CONSTRUCTION): SUMtER WEEKEND, ADVERSE WEATHER - RAIN 5097C 6-10
8,000 -
)
O 7,000 -
6,000 -
l 8 5,000 -
E '
[!s -
b$ -
k 4,0'00 - -
2 l g - ,
2 3,000 -
E 8 \
2,000 - .
1,000 -
.I i i e i i i e i 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 Time (minutes) following Initial Alert i
FIGURE 6.5 - CU4ULATIVE VEHICLE DEPARTURES FROM THE SOUTH TEXAS PROJECT EPZ (UNIT 1 OPERATIONAL ANO UNIT 2 UNDER CONSTRUCTION): SUM ER WEEKEND, ADVERSE WEATHER - RAIN, WITH FLOODING 5097C 6-11
'I l departures from the EPZ. As indicated on Figures 6.3 and 6.4 O
evacuation during fall / winter weeknight and summer weekend fair weather conditions are also influenced mostly by preparation and mobilization activities. Comparatively, the increased evacuation times associated with both summer weekend adverse weather conditions result from reduced roadway capacities and
' travel speeds associated with the rain and rain with flooding conditions.
6.2 Evacuation During Operation of Units 1 and 2 2
__~ Evacuation time estimates were also developed for the Analysis Cases presented in Section 6.1, assuming both Units 1 and 2 in operation. These times are presented in Table 6.2 and 5 discussed briefly below:
/~ N Analysis Case 1 2 Miles, 360 U (Area 1)
' The estimated time required to evacuate Area 1 is 70' minutes (1 hour1.157407e-5 days 2.777778e-4 hours 1.653439e-6 weeks 3.805e-7 months , 10 minutes) during all three fair weather
~
conditions modeled. During summer weekend adverse weather
~~
conditions, the total evacuation time increases only slightly ,
yo 75 minutes (1 hour1.157407e-5 days 2.777778e-4 hours 1.653439e-6 weeks 3.805e-7 months , 15 minutes). With heavy rain and -
flooding closing portions of Texas 60 and FM 521, the estimated -
evacuation time is 85 minutes (1 hour1.157407e-5 days 2.777778e-4 hours 1.653439e-6 weeks 3.805e-7 months , 25 minutes). These evacuation times are between 30 and 50 minutes less than the l corresponding times with Unit 2 still under construction. The vehicle queueing and congestion which occurs along the plant j access roads is significantly reduced due to the decrease in plant employees when both Units are in operation.
Analysis Cases 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 - (All 0-5 Mile Areas)
Evacuation of Areas within the 5-mile radius of the site would require 150 minutes (2 hcurs, 30 minutes) during A
(_)
l l
5097C 6-12 I
d lp TABLE 6.2 EVACUATION Tl)E ESTIMATE
SUMMARY
WITM UNITS 1 AND UNIT 2 IN (PERATION 1
Total Evacuation time (Minutes) i IWinte IWinter ISummer il Summer ISummer i l lWeekday lWeeknight IWeekend ll Weekend l Weekend l l IFair IFair IFalr ll Adverse lAdverse 1 Analysis Case Areas Weather Weather Weather. Weather Weather 3
1. 0-2 Mlle, 360 0 11 I ( 70) 1 ( 70) l ( 70) ll ( 75) I t 85) i I I I I i Il i =
1 I I I il I i
-4. 0-5 Mlle, 900 SE 11, 2 l (150) 11 I (150) I (150) (150) l (150) I ~
l- 1 I l ll l 1 I i i i il i I
~3. 0-5 Mlle, 900NE 11, 3 l (150) l (150) '
I (150) ll (150) I (150) l l I I I il i l ~
i I I I 11 I l
4. 0-5 Mlle, 90 NW 0 ll, 4 I (150) 1 (150) l (150) ll (150) i (150) l I l i l 11 I l
^
l l I I ll l 1 j'~s 0
5. 0-5 Mile, 90 SW 11, 5 l (150) l (150) l (150) ll (ISO) 1 (150) l l l I I 11 I i l l l l Il I i
1. 0-5 Mlle, 3600 11,2,3,4,5 l (150) 1 (150) I (150) ll (150) l (150) l -
__ i l I i ll l l
~
l l l l 11 I l
-7. 0-10 Mlle, 900 SE 11, 2, 5 l (155) l (155) I (170) ll (175) l (180) l .
.. I I l l 11 l l i 1 1 I il I l
~
8. 0-10 Mlle, 900 NE l (155) 1 (ISS) 11, 3, 7 1 (155) ll (ISS) l (155) l
I I I l ll I 1 1
1 I I 0
I il I l
9. 0-10 Mlle, 90 NW 11, 4, 8 I (155) 1 (155) l (155) ll (155) l (ISS) l
, I I I I il i l i I I I il i I i 10. 0-10 Mlle, 90 0SW ll, 5, 9 l (155) I (155) I (155) ll (155) l (155) l I I I I l il l l 1 1 1 Il I l
11. Full EPZ ll, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, I (155) l (155) l (170) ll (175) l (180) I 17, 8, 9 I i i ll l l l l l I 11 I I I
includes time associated with notification, preparation and mobilization events.
Heavy rainstorm condition resulting in a decrease in roadway capacity and travel speeds of 205.
3 f Heavy reinstorm condition with flooding, resulting in a decrease In roadway capacity and travel speeds of 205, in addition to the closing of portions of Routes 60 and 521.
5097C 6-13 t - 1
4
~
all fair and adverse weather conditions. The most significant O('S influence on.the total evacuation time is the time associated with preparation and mobilization activities of the area residents.
Analysis' Case 7 10 Miles, 900 SE (Areas 1, 2 & 6)
~
Evacuation of the population within Areas 1, 2 and 6 is estimated to take 155 minutes (2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months , 35 minutes) during fall / winter weekday and weeknight fair weather conditions.
This total evacuation time increases to 170 minutes (2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months , 50 minutesi during a fair weather summer weekend. This I Tncrease is due primarily to' the summer, population in the '
Natagorda Beach' area. Dpring summer weekend adverse weather -
conditions, the total evhcuation times increase to 175 minutes (2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months , 55 minutes) with heavy rain, and 180 minutes -
l (3 hours3.472222e-5 days 8.333333e-4 hours 4.960317e-6 weeks 1.1415e-6 months ) with hedvy rain causing flooding conditinns.
l ,. ,
(
x,h Analysis Case 8 10 Miles,'90 0 NE (Areas 1, 3 & 7)
Analysis Case 9 10 Miles, 90 0 NN (Areas 1, 4 & 8) -
Analysis Case 10 10 Miles, 90 U SW '(Areas 1, 5 & 9) __
The estimated evacuation time associated with Cases 8, 9 ,
g.n d 10 is 155 minutes (2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months , 35 minutes) during fall / winter weekday, weeknight and summer weekend fair weather conditions, .
as well as for summer weekend adverse conditions. The time retjuired for preparation and mobilization is the main influence on the total evacuation time of these areas.
Analysis Case 11 - Entire EPZ (All Areas)
During fall / winter weekday and fall / winter weeknight fair weather conditions, the total evacuation time for the entire EPZ is estimated.to be 155 minutes (2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months , 35 minutes). This time increases to 170 minutes (2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months , 50 minutes) during a 7_s fair weather summer weekend day. The cumulative vehicle U
i
'5097C 6-14 .
departures associated with the fall / winter weekday, weeknight h and summer weekend fair weather conditions, are presented in l
Figures 6.6,'6.7 and 6.8, respectively. The corresponding departure summaries for the summer adverse weather conditions are presented in Figures 6.9 and 6.10. Adverse weather conditions during a summer weekend result in evacuation times of 175 minutes (2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months , 55 minutes) during a heavy rainstorm, and 180 minutes (3 hours3.472222e-5 days 8.333333e-4 hours 4.960317e-6 weeks 1.1415e-6 months ) during a rainstorm which would force the closing of some roadway sections due to flooding conditions.
The evacuation times for the entire EPZ during both fair and adverse weather conditions correspond to the times required to evacuate Areas 1, 2 and 6 (Analysis Case 7). The . i aieparation and mobilization time distriuutions have the ...
greatest influence on total evacuation times.
6 O
g-6 5
O O
e O
5097C 6-15
8,000 -
O 7,000 -
l l 8,000 -
1 l
l l
l 5 ,0 0 0 ,-
, i
~ [
.%~
l ,
k i
,! 4,000 -
O
! 3,000 -
~
3,005~~
1,000 -
I s s i i s i i 30 60 90 120 150 180 0 30 240 270 300 Time (minutes) follo>c;..g :,;M,al Alert FIGURE 6.6 - Cl.NULATIVE VEHICLE DEPARTURES FROM THE SOUTH TEXAS PROJECT EP (UNITS 1 AND 2 OPERATIONAL): FALL / WINTER WEEKDAY, FAIR WEATHER
(
8,000 -
O 7,000 -
8,000 - .
l
, i s,000 - '
e _ __
[
l 4,000 -
i e
!O
,i 3,000 -
l -
2,00Q -
1,000 -
J l I i e i 4 4 L i 30 80 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 Time (minutes) following Initial Alert FIGURE 6.7 - CUMULATIVE VEHICLE DEPARTURES FROM THE SOUTH TEXAS PROJECT EPZ ,
(UNITS 1 AND 2 OPERATIONAL): FALL / WINTER WEEKNIGHT, FAIR WEATHER
8,000 -
O 7,000 -
i 6,000 -
{
y 5,000 - -
~
s .
3 ._
2 - i l 4,000 - -
i 10 i
i 3,000 -
j _
') -
2,0 00 ~-
1,000 -
i i e i i i i e i 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 Time (minutes) following initial Alert FIGURE 6.8 - CUMULATIVE VEHICLE DEPARTURES FROM THE SOUTH TEXAS PROJECT EPZ (UNITS 1 AND 2 OPERATIONAL): SUttER WEEKEND, FAIR WEATHER qq?7q n.1n - _ _ _ _ _ _ .
8,003 -
O 7,000 -
l 8,000 -
l 5,000 -
2 i
e _- .s.
[
n l 4,000 -
is _
e iO i 3,000 -
l' 2,000--
1,000 -
i i i i e a i e i i 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 Time (minutes) followins Initial Alert FIGURE 6.9 - cut 4)LATIVE VEHICLE DEPARTURES FROM THE SOUTH TEXAS PROJTCT EPZ (UNITS 1 AND 2 OPERATIONAL): SUMMER WEEKEND, ADVERSE WEATER -
RAIN
_ m
8,000 -
O 7,000 -
l 6,000 - ;
j 5,000 -
i -
2 i
, m
.s.
? _
i
,' 4,000 -
000 -
2,000,-
1,000 -
I a e i e i i s 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 Time (minutes) following Initial Alert O FIGWE 6.10 - CUMULATIVE VEHICLE DEPARTURES FROM THE SOUTH TEXAS PROJECT EPZ (UNITS 1 AND 2 OPERATIONAL): SUMER WEEKENO, ADVERSE WEATHER -
RAIN, WITH FLOODING a.m,r. c_n -
7. SUPPLEMENTAL ANALYSES U() .
7.1 General Supplemental analyses related to emergency evacuation of the South Texas Project EPZ have been conducted. First, an estimate was prepared for the time required to confirm that
' evacuation has been completed. Second, preliminary access control locations have been identified to restrict access into the South Texas Project EPZ. Third, traffic management locations have been identified to more effectively manage the
,, traffic flow anticipated from an emergency evacuation of the ...
_EPZ. Both the access control and traffic management locations
.are preliminary at this time and will be updated and revised as [
necessary during the on-going offsite emergency planning effort _
being conducted for the South Texas Project EPZ.
'T 7.2 Evacuation Confirmation (V
_. The confirmation process measures how effectively an ,
_ evacuation is being accomplished. Confirmation of the
_ evacuation is performed for security reasons, to assure that
.all-the population has left the area, and to assist those
~
, persons having olfficulties in evacuating. .
It is anticipated that evacuation confirmation will be accomplished by the Matagorda County Sheriff's Department on a door-to-door house check basis. Although the actual time associated with the confirmation process would depend on both personnel and equipment resources that may vary significantly under various conditions, it is estimated that this process could be.pompleted for the entire EPZ within approximately four hours.
7.3 Evacuation Traffic Access Control Locations O Table 7.1 lists the identified traffic access control locations for the South Texas Project EPZ. These locations i
5050C 7-1 l
_ _ J
/
TABLE 7.1
. N-]x TRAFFIC ACCESS CONTROL LOCATIONS FOR THE SOUTH TEXAS PROJECT EPZ Loc. Department of Transportation Roads Ref.* and DOT Barricades Responsibility **
1. Texas 6C/FM2666 TBD
2. Texas 6G, south of FM 2666 TBD
3. Texas 60, north of FM 521 TBD 4 FM 521, east of Texas 60 ,
- TBD --
.__5. FM 2031, south of Matagorda TBD
6. Texas 35 (Palacios) TBD
7. FM 2653 TBD --
6. Texas 35, south of FM 521 TBD -
9. Texas 35, north of FM 321 TBD
10. Texas 35/FM 616 TBD -
11. Texas 35/FM 71 TBD
12. Texas 35, east of FM 71 TBD
13. Texas 35, east of FM 1095 TBD f~'
14. Texas 35, west of FM 1468 TBD
15. Texas 35/ Texas 60 TBD
?
Refer to Figure 7.1.
To be developed, responsibilities for manning access control locaticns are being developeo as part of the offsite
() emergency planning work being concucted by hL&P.
V 505CC 7-2
('}'
were developed based upon a detailed review of the evacuation transportation network, and sre identified on Figure 7.1.
These control points will be staffed by the Matagorda County Sheriff's Department and Texas State Police personnel, as available, for the purpose of restricting unauthorized access into the potential hazard area.
7.4 Traffic Management Locations The NETVAC simulation model output was examined in detail
.to identify key intersection locations where vehicle queueing ,
and delays may warrant traffic management during the course of ~
~
]nevacuation. The responsibility for both traffic and access control during an evacuation of the South Texas Project EPZ ]
will be assumed by the Matagorda County Sheriff's Department with assistance from the Texas State Police. Support from the ~
County Highway Department may be requested for traffic
'n control. All of the previously identified access control U locations would also serve as traffic management locaticns, since personnel stationed at these areas would assist in the
~
efficient movement of vehicles outside of the area. In addition to these access control locations, several 16 cations "
}havebeenidentifiedwithintheEPZwheretrafficmanagement ~
}shouldbeconsidered. These locations represent areas where traffic control personnel shoulc be stationed tc reouce vehicle conflicts and promote progressive movement through the area.
The recommendeo traffic management locations, which are listed below, are key areas where intermittent traffic congestion would be anticipated throughout the evacuation process:
o
, FM 521 6 South Texas Project Access Roads (Loc. 16 cn Fig. 7.1);
o FM 521 6 FM 1095 (Loc. 17 cn Fig. 7.1);
o FM 521 0 Texas 60 (Loc. 16 on Fig. 7.1);
o Texas 60 (Matagorda) (Loc. 19 on Fig. 7.1);
D o Texas 35 (Palacios) (Loc. 20 cn Fig. 7.1); and o Texas 35 E FM 521 (Loc. 21 on Fig. 7.1).
SC50C 7-3
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I 1.EGEND FIGURE 7.1 - PRELIMINARY ACCESS CONTr10L AND =
W Preliminary Access TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT LOCATIONS control t.ocations
() -The stationing of traffic. controllers at these traffic management locations would not be expected to significantly 4
reduce the time required to evacuate the EPZ, since the time estimates are in most cases influenced primarily by the various preparation and mobilization times. However, controllers at these key locations would reduce the number of vehicle conflicts and promote safer travel out of the EPZ. The traf fic controllers would also act to instill confidence in evacuees by directing evacuating traffic in the most efficient manner possi,ble, and by being available to respond to unpredictable or-changing events.
e%*
6 We 9
6 0
Wh*
6 9 b
h 4
l l
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O 5050C 7-5
"N REFERENCES (D
1. " Draft Evacuation Time Estimates for Areas-Near the South Texas Project," HMM Associates, March 14, 1980.
2. Criteria for Preparation and Evaluation of Radiological Emergency Response Plans ano Preparedness in Support of Nuclear Power Plants, Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Federal Emergency Management Agency, November 1980.
3. U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce, 1980 Final Population and Housing Unit Counts, Summary Tape File 3A.
4. General Highway Map - Matagorda County, Texas prepared by the State Department of Highways and Public Transportation
- Transportation Planning Division in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Transportation, Revised January 1979. .
5. U.S. Department of the Interior Geological Survey, '
Matagorda Quadrangle, 7.5 Minute Series - Topographics, m.
Rev. 1972.
Personal Communication with:
6. Mr. Jerry Davis, Director of Data Collection, Texas Education Agency on June 26, 1984.
7-sg 7. Mr. Sam Bornes, Supervisor, Matagorda Elementary School on
( ') 8.
June 26, 1984.
Personnel Department, Celanese Chemical Company, Inc. on June 26, 1984.
-9. Administrative Secretary, DuPont Chemical Company on June -
26, 1984.
Id. Matagorda County Agricultural and Marine County Extension ~'
Agency on June 29, 1984.
_11. Administrator, Bay City Chamber of Commerce on June 29, 1984. -
12. " Highway Capacity Manual," Highway Research Board Special Report 87, National Academy of Science, 1965.
13. " Interim Materials on Highway Capacity," Transportation Research Circular 212, Transportation Research Board, January 1980.
14. "The Environmental Influence of Rain on Freeway Capacity,"
E. Roy Jones and Merrell E. Godsby, Highway Research Record No. 321, Highway Research Board, 1970.
15. " Headway Approach to Intersection Capacity," Donald S.
Berry ~and P.D. Gandhi, Highway Research Record 453, Highway Research Board, 1973.
16. " Evacuation Risks - An Evaluation," Hans and Sell, U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, July 1974; and
" Evacuation Planning in Emergency Management," Perry,
[_s) Lindell and Greene, Lexington Books, 1981.
A/ 17. " Seasonal Housing Occupancy Survey for Seabrook, NH, HMM Associates, 1978.
5052C R-1
~ .c !
9 t
E f( J i :
~
4 l
}
f t
i i !
i- . .
i l i i
i t.
l i
1 6 .i
,T .. ~ i APPENDIX 1 -
i PERMANENT RESIDENT POPULATION - i l.
. , I i
AND-VEHICLE DEMAND ESTIMATES -
1 i
~~'
J. '. _
L ..
b
): -
i i
I l
4 i 4
l
~
l 1
1 1
O 4
4 4
I
)
j. 4717C Al-1
PERMANENT RESIDENT POPULATION AND VcNICLE DEMAND ESTIMATES Vehicle Census Division Population 1 Sector Demand 2 Node 3 Bay City Division:
T1303p-E0528A 52. NE 9-10 18 35 896 outside of EPZ -
N T1304p-E0529A 3 NNE 4-5 1 46 20 5-6 6 27 24 6-7 7 27 .
. 91 7-8 27 27 '-
17 8-9 5 27 ..
' 47 9-10 14 27 13 NE 6-7 4 27 -
3 8-9 1 35 -
17 9-10 5 35 115 Outside of EPZ -
N Matagorda-Sargent Division:
T1305-E0 538 18 ESE 4-5 7 47 5 5-6 2 36 5 6-7 2 36 -
-' 5 7-8 2 36 5 SE 4-5 2 -
47 --
_ 3 6-7 1 36 178 8-9 70 37
'J 888 9-10 15 39,40 -
ITU7 .
1. Based on_nousing counts from a review of U.S. Geological Survey topographic maps and the average number of persons per housenold from the 1960 U.S. Census of Housing.
O 2. Based on one vehicle per nousehold.
3. Point of entry onto the evacuation roadway network.
4717C Al-2
(y) PERMANENT RESIDENT POPULATION AND VLM1LLt UtMAND L511 Malt 5 Vehicle Census Division Population 1 Sector Demand 2 Node 3 I
Matagorda-Sargent Division:
T1305-E0539 9 NNE 3-4 3 46 20 4-5 7 46 6 5-6 2 l 27 j 9 NE 4-5 3 46 i 6 5-6 2 27 17 6-7 6 27 6 7-8 2 34 29 d-9 10 35 1
~~ 12 9-10 4 35 6 ENE 3-4 2 28 ^'
12 4-5 4 28 49 5-6 17 32 4 29 6-7 10 32 294 7-8 101 32,31 .
12 8-9 4 32 9 E 3-4 3 28 3 4-5
(~ 47 5-6 16 1 28 32,29
(~-}/ 12 6-7 4 32,29 l 67 7-8 23 30
_ 9 8-9 3 30 ESE 6-7 3 1 36 35 7-8 12 . 36 -
i
~ 6 9-10 2 36 3 SE 7-8
'c 1 36 -
87 9-10 30 38 130 Outside of EPZ ~
777
i l
1.
Based on nousing counts from a review of U.S. Geological Survey topograpnic maps and the average numoer of persons per nousehold from the 1980 U.S. Census of Housing.
g- 2. Based on one vehicle per household.
3 Point of entry onto the evacuation roadway network.
4717C Al-3
.O
\j PERMANENT RESIDENT POPULATION AND Vt.HICLE DEMANO ES TIMA TES Vehicle Census Division Population 1 Sector Demand 2 Node 3 Palacios Division:
T1306p-E0537 17 W 8-9 6 11 3 9-10 1 11 3 WSW 2-3 1 3 11 3-4 4 3 32 4-5 11 3 29 5-6 10 4 80 6-7 28 4 29 7-8 10 12 2 2 37 8-9 13 12 .,
, 112 9-10 39 12 3 SW 2-3 1 3 -
6 3-4 2 3 -
29 4-5 10 3 34 5-6 12 4 -
26 6-7 9 4 26 7-8 9 5
,q 43 8-9 15 6 (g- 172 9-10 60 6 12 SSW 4-5 4 48 14 5-6 5 5 15 6-7 5 5 _
__ 6 7-8 2 5 15 8-9 5 -
6 --
- 26 9-10 9 6
.. 9 S 4-5 3 48 6 SSE 5-6 2 4 -
9 7-6 3 4 .
3 9-10 1 5 3 CSC 2-3 1 29 345 Outside of CPZ IT55 T1306-E0534 1648 SW 10+ 566 14 E0535 874 SW 10+ 300 14,33 E,0536 2145 SW 10+ 738 33
1. Based on_ housing counts from a review of U.S. Geological Survey topographic maps and the average number of persons per household from the 1980 U.S. Census of Housing.
2. dased on one vehicle per household.
N. 3. Point of entry onto tne evacuation roadway network.
4717C Al-4 l - . - . .
./~] PERMANENT RESIDENT POPULATION AND VtHIGLE DEMAND ESTIMATES
(_/
Vehicle Census Division Population 1 Sector Demand 2 Node 3 Tidehaven Division:
T1307p-E0532 17 N 2-3 6 44 3 4-5 1 44 11 5-6 4 20,45 92 6-7 82 20,45 6 7-8 2 20 3 8-9 1 20 14 9-10 5 20 3 NC 2-3 1 44 I
~
~~
3 ENE 2-3 1 47 '"
3 WSW 2-3 1 15 3
4-5 1 15 ..
. 3 W 2-3 1 15 ,
3 3-4 1 15 49 4-5 17 15 -
109 5-6 38 9 57 6-7 20 9
~
20 7-8 7 9
( 34 6-9 12 10 43 9-10 15 10 3 WNW 3-4 1 15
_ 46 4-5 16 15 _
~
296 5-6 103 16 26 6-7 9 . 16 --
55 7-8 19 16 49 8-9 17 16 P 89 9-10 31 16 _
1. dased on nousing counts f rom a review of U.S. Geological Survey t~opographic maps and the average numoer of persons per nousenold from the 1980 U.S. Census of Housing.
/~ 2. Based on one vehicle per housenold.
\ -} 3. Point of entry onto the evacuation roadway network.
4717C Al-5
(~} PERMANENT RESIDENT POPULATION AND a
s_- VtMICLE DEMAN0 ESTIMATES Vehicle Census Division Population 1 Sector Oemand 2 Node 3 Tidehaven Division (contd.)
T1307p-E0532 17 2-3 6 15 3 3-4 1 15 17 4-5 6 15 3 5-6 1 16 26 6-7 9 16 106 7-8 37 16 103 8-9 36 17 ,
72 9-10 25 17 --
__~ 52 NNW 2-3 18 44,15 "'
~
3 3-4 1 15 11 4-5 4 44,15 --
3 5-6 1 20 .
6 6-7 2 20 6 8-9 2 20 -
6 9-10 2 17 235 Outside of EPZ
{
\# T1307p-E0533 6 WSW 9-10 2 11 9 W 9-10 3 10
- 1415 Outside of CPZ _
IUU TOTAL PERMANENT RESIDENT -
PP0PULATION WITHIN EPZ 4490 _
l
! 1. Based on housing counts from a review of U.S. Geological Survey t5pographic maps and the average numoer of persons per household from the 1980 U.S. Census of Housing.
p 2. Based on one vehicle per nousehold.
A 3 Point of entry onto the evacuation roadway network.
l 4717C Al-6
l l
73 TRANSPORT-DEPENDENT PERMANENT POPULATION WITHIN THE EPZ Householdsl Transport 2 Without a Dependent Census Division Vehicle Population Node 3 Bay City:
E0528A 1 1 35 Matagorda-Sargent:
E0538 5 13 E0539 37 6 18 46 Palacios:
E0537 10 28
_ 4 --
T1dehaven:
ED532 7 20 E0533 20 -
1
_1 11 .
TOTAL TRANSPORT DEPENDENT POPULATION 81
~
1.
From the 1980 Census of Housing; the percentage of residents within the EPZ was applied to the total households without a vehicle in order to estimate the number of transport households within the EPZ.
2
. Based on the average number of persons per household f rom O 3 the 1980 Census of Housing.
Point of entry onto the evacuation roadway network.
4717C Al-7
O
. g 6
.s=
APPENDIX 2 -
4 SEASONAL RESIDENT POPULATION -
AND VEHICLE DEMAND ESTIMATES e
e M*
g M** .
M e ,
b n
O M
m O
4735C A2-1
,r SEASONAL RESIMNT PORJLATION AND
\ VEHICLE DEMAND t.5TIMATES Seasonall Vehicle 3 Units Population 2 Demand Sector Node 4 Matagorda-Sargent 246 1328 492 SE9-10 51 Division SSE9-10 40 Palacios Division 17 92 34 SW9-10 8 Tidehaven Division 5 27 10 W5-6 9 l
TOTAL SEASONAL HESIDENT ~
FDFULATION WITHIN EPZ g ..
l l
n\J i
l -
t I
1.
Based on s~easonal housing data from the 1980 U.S. Census of Housing. The percentage of permanent population located within the EPZ was applied to this data to arrive at the nuncer of seasonal housing units located within j
the EPZ.
2 Based on 5.4 persons per seasonal unit.
. Based on 2 venicles per seasonal unit.
4 Point of entry onto tne evacuation roadway network.
i l
l 4735C A2-2
l i
O i i
L 1
p I
i r
E
~ '
APPENDIX 3 ._
TRANSIENT AND SPECIAL FACILITY POPOLATION .
f AND VEHICLE DEMAND ESTIMATES l
e i
. [
I
. \
t I
l
I i
@ \
1 l
i 4736C A3-1
l TRANSIENT APO SPECIAL FACILITY POPtLATICN WITHIN TE SOUTH TEXAS PROICT EPZ
l. I, t .
.l, l l l. Population 1 2 t l l Vehicle Demand g i
lReferencel lDistancel Winter l Winter l Sumnerl Winter l Winter I Summer l 3 Facility l, Number ISectorl(Miles) l Weekday lWeeknightlWeekendl Weekday lWeeknightl Weekend l Node Tidehaven Inter- T1 NW 7-8 211 students 0 0 -7 buses 0 0 16 l mediate School 11 staff 11 cars Tidehaven High T2 NW 8-9 247 students 0 0 9 buses 0 0 17 School 13 staff 13 cars Matagorda Elem- T3 SE 8-9 143 students 0 0 5 buses 0 0 39 entary school 19 staff 19 cars South Texas Project T4 Center 320 0 320 107 0 107 2 Visitors Center and l
Public Area
! South Texas Project 4 4 4 T5 Center 2680 2680 2680 2680 22 2680 1 l Site 50 42 43 9 Celanese Chemical T6 NPE 4-5 245 105 105 245 105 105 46 DuPont Chemical T7 E 6-7 70 30 70 70 30 70 30 Matagorda Beach T8 SSE 10+ 0 0 700 0 0 280 51
1. Population figures have been verified through a, telephone survey conducted by 1944 Associates in ajne,1984.
2. Vehicle occtpancy rates are: 1.0 enployees per vehicle; 3.0 recreational visitors per vehicle; 2.5 beach users per vehicle; and 30 school children per bus.
3. Point of entry onto the evacuation roadway network.
4. Figure represents the peak number of employees at the plant, with Unit I refueling and Unit 2 under construction; during operation of both Units 1 and 2, and one Unit in the process of refueling, the peak number of employees is estimated at 800.
4736C A3-2 t- ' ' *
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LEGENO Q Tranglent and Specgag A3 3 o aff n w
l 2
APPENDIX 4 .%*
e ROADWAY NETWORK LISTING AND CAPACITIES m
M*
g M**
h a
e 4717C A4-1 a
(h t
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NETWCW L! STING LIMC1 Fem 4:1 "411 -
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NtfWORic L!$f!'43 L!iet Fa4 70 L(4 AW (W $w L Pt LT At Pt $PD JAM pef F*AP $tt $ PLT CAP 837 $ PLT CAP LFf $ PLT CAP O!AQ $ PLT CAP FLtW 43 378 i. l' . tr ll 44 1 'I . tl' tj t 2 4 F 11 : l '
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4717C A4-2 i
ROADWAY NETWORK DEFINITION AND CAPACITIES O The following pages include a description of the highway network used in the NETVAC evacuation simulation model. These pages include a computer printout of the network characteris-tics and a key for interpreting the data in the network list- ;
ing. The listing includes both highway geometric descriptions and highway capacity data for each link in the network.
Key to NETVAC Computer Printout LINK = Link identification number
. FROM = Upstrea,a node number (A-node) for associated ~
_ link TO =
Downstream node number.(R-node) for associated link .
LEN = Link length in feet (A-node to B-node)
AW = Approach vidth LW = Lane width SW = Lateral clearance; distance from edge of
\
travel-way to obstructions along link midblock L = Number of lanes in direction of travel .
PR = Priority of movement along link, in reference
-~
i to movement along intersecting links. .Domin- -
_ ant or major link approaches are classified as Priority 1. Secondary approaches (i.e., those
,J link approaches controlled by stop signs, yield -
signs, etc.) are generally classified as .
Priority 2.
LT = Lane type, classified as follows:
1 - Ona-way, no parking 2 - One-way, parking on one side 3 - One-way, parking on two sides 4 - Two-way, no parking 5 - Two-way, with parking 6 - Rural divided highway, no parking
.- 7 - Rural undivided highway, no parking 8 - Freeways and expressways AT = Area type, classified as follows:
l 1 - Central business district 2 - Fringe i 3 - Outer business district 4 - Residential l
l 4717C A4-3
~
PK '= T - Parking along link permitted
F - Parking along link prohibited SPD = Free-flow speed over link JAM = Jan density - relative measure of link's carrying capacity P.RF = User. preference or~ movement along each outbound link. Preferences are initially assigned based on free-flow conditions. Actual route assign-ments are calculated by the program, consider-ing the assigned preferences as well as speed, density, and capacity relationships. j
, FCAP = Link capacity 6
STR,SPLT,
-~
CAP = Identifies destination (upstreaa node)sof the j straight movement from dcwnstream node, green
~
time allocation, and associated intersection -
1 capacity .
RGT,SPLT CAP' = Identifies destination (upstream node) of the right-turn movement from downstream. node; the ~
exclusive right-turn green time, if applicable; and associated special turning lane capacity, if applicable LFT SPLT CAP = Identifies destination (upstream node) of the left-turn movement from downstream nodes the exclusive left-turn green time, if applicable;
-' and associated special turn lane capacity, if applicable DI-AG.SPLT. CAP = Identifies destination (upatream node) of the -
diagonal movement from downstream node; the exclusive diagonal-turn green time, if applic- ~
! able; and associated special turn lane capa- ~
city, if applicable l FLOW = Used in special cases for designating network i
flows l
1 O
l 4717C A4 4

ML20202G331

Text

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