ML20151L342
| ML20151L342 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Davis Besse  |
| Issue date: | 11/10/1987 |
| From: | KLD ASSOCIATES, INC. |
| To: | |
| References | |
| KLD-TR-190-01, KLD-TR-190-1, KLD-TR-190-R01, KLD-TR-190-R1, NUDOCS 8804220030 | |
| Download: ML20151L342 (339) | |
Text
{{#Wiki_filter:. ____ _ KLD TR 190 Development of Evacuation Time Estimates for Davis Besse Nuclear Power Station Prepared for Toledo Edison , O by KLD Associates, Inc. 300 Broadway Huntington Station, NY 11746 Revision 0 January 9, 1987 Revision 1 November 10, 1987 AO99 8804220030 871110 h DR ADOCK0500g6 s .. - - - - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - . _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _>
TABLE OF CONTENTS Esction Title Pace
- 1. INTRODUCTION 1-1 1.1 overview of Plan Update Process 1-1 1.2 Description of the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) 1-3 1.3 Preliminary Activities 1-4
- 2. DEMAND ESTIMATION 2-1
- 3. ESTIMATION OF HIGHWAY CAPACITY 3-1
- 4. ESTIMATION OF TRIP GENERATION TIME 4-1
- 5. DEMAND ESTIMATION OF EVACUATION SCENARIOS 5-1
- 6. PRELIMINARY TRAFFIC CONTROL AND MANAGEMENT TACTICS 6-1
- 7. TRAFFIC ROUTING PLANS 7-1
- 8. EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES (ETE) 8-1
- 9. EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR TRANSIT OPERATIONS 9-1
- 10. SURVEILLANCE OF EVACUATION OPERATIONS 10-1
- 11. CONFIRMATION TIME 11-1 LIST OF APPENDICES Appendix A Glossary of Terms Appendix B Traffic Assignment Model Appendix C Traffic Simulation Model: I-DYNEV l Appendix D Detailed Description of Study Procedure Appendix E Literature Review l
l Appendix F Telephone Survey Instrument Appendix G Tabulations of Telephone Survey Data Appendix H Estimation of Persons per Vehicle for Permanent Population O i Rev. 0
TABLE OF CONTENTS Appendix I Traffic Control Points Appendix J Evacuation Route Descriptions Appendix K Evacuation Route Maps Appendix L Evacuation Dynamics Appendix M Computational Procedures for Combining Component Activity Time Distributions Appendix N Evacuation Time Estimate Sensitivity Studies LIST OF FIGURES Number Title Pace 1-1 General Site Area 1-5 1-2 Link-Node Map 1-7 2-1 EPZ Showing Evacuation Subareas 2-4 2-2 Subarea Permanent Resident and Population Vehicle Estimates 2-5 ! 2-3 Permanent Population Distribution-Davis Besse EPZ 2-6 2-4 Permanent Population Vehicle Distribution - l Davis Besse EPZ 2-7 2-5 Subarea Seasonal Population and Vehicle Estimates 2-9 2-6 Seasonal Population Distribution Davis Besse EPZ 2-10 2-7 Seasonal Population Vehicle Distribution - Davis Besse EPZ 2-11 2-8 Subarea Transient Population and Vehicle Estimates 2-17 2-9 Transient Population Distribution - Davis Besse EPZ 2-18 2-10 Transient Population Vehicle Distribution - Davis Besse EPZ 2-19 i 2-11 Subarea Employment Population and Vehicle Estimates 2-21 2-12 Employment Population Distribution Davis Besse EPZ 2-22 2-13 Employment Population Vehicle Distribution l Davis Besse EPZ 2-23 2-14 Subarea Boating Population and Vehicle Estimates 2-26 2-15 Boating Population Distribution Davis Besse EPZ 2-27 2-16 Boating Population Vehicle Distribution Davis Besse EPZ 2-28 11 Rev. 1 t a
o g3 LIST OF FIGURES (_) (conc) Number Title Pace 3-1 Fundamental Relationship Between Volume and Density 3-5 3-2 ODOT Roadway Segments 3-13 4-1 Events and Activities Preceding the Evacuation 4-5 4-2 Trig Generation Time Distributions for the General Population 4-8 4-3 Comparison of Trip Generation Distributions 4-15 6-1 Traffic Control Points in Ottawa and Lucas Counties 6-3 6-2 Traffic Control Points in Port Clinton 6-4 8-1 Traffic Congestion Pattern at 3 hours, 30 minutes after order to evacuate entire EPZ is given (Scenario 4) 8-11 8-2 Traffic Congestion Pattern at 5 hours, - after order to evacuate entire EPZ is given (Scenario 4) 8-12 8-3 Evacuation Time Estimates for Davis Besse Summer Weekend Midday Good Weather 3-14 9-1 Identification of Bus Pick Up Points in Port Clinton 9-10 9-2 Chronology of Events for the Evacuation of Transit-Dependent People, Scenario: Winter Weekday 9-12 9-3 Chronology of Events for the Evacuation of Transit-Dependent People, Scenario: Summer Weekday Weekend 9-13 9-4 Location of Schools and Special Facilities 9-18 O 111 pey, o
I l LIST OF TABLES O Numbar Title Pace 2-1 Crane Creek State Park Traffic Counts 2-14 2-2 Results of Crane Creek License Plate Survey 2-15 l 2-3 Summary of Boating Population 2-25 2-4 Subarea Summary of Population and Vehicle ; Estimates 2-30 3-1 Comparison of Ohio Department of Transportation Capacities with KLD Capacity Estimates 3-12 3-2 Roadway Capacity Estimates 3-14 4-1 Trip Generation Time Histograms for the Midweek and Weekend Scenarios 4-16 4-2 Trip Generation Time Histograms for the Inclement Weather, Snow, Scenarios (Distributions F,G) 4-16 4-3 Trip Generation Time Histograms for Evening Scenarios 4-20 5-1 Definition of Evacuation Regions 5-2 ~ 5-2 Areas Affected by Flooding during a Northeast Storm 5-3 5-3 Percent of Population Groups for Various Scenarios 5-5 l 5-4a Population and Vehicle Estimates for Various l s Combinations of Regions and Scenarios -
- Summer, Midweek, Midday 5-6
, 5-4b Population and Vehicle Estimates for Various l Combinations of Regions and Scenarios - l Summer, Midweek, Midday, Flood 5-7 , 5-4c Population and Vehicle Estimates for Various l Combinations of Regions and Scenarios - l Summer, Weekend, Midday, 5-8 l 5-4d Population and Vehicle Estimates for Various Combinations of Regions and Scenarios - Summer, Evening 5-9 5-4e Population and Vehicle Estimates for Various l Combinations of Regions and Scenarios - Winter, Midweek, Midday 5-10 , 5-4f Population and Vehicle Estimates for Various l Combinations of Regions and Scenarios - i Winter, Evening 5-11 5-4g Population and Vehicle Estimates for Various < Combinations of Regions and Scenarios - Spring, Midweek, Midday, Flood 5-12 l 6-1 Summary of Traffic Control Points 6-5 l 6-2 Preliminary Assignment of Traffic Control l Posts to Manning Agency 6-6 l 6-3 Activation of Traffic Control Points 6-7 l l iv ' Rev. 1
l s LIST OF TABLES (cont) Number Title Pace 7-1 Allocation of Subareas t'o Host Communities 7-2 8-1 Summary of Evacuation Scenarios 8-2 8-2 Summary of Evacuation Regions 8-3 1 d-3a Davis Besse Station Evacuation Time Estimates Time to Clear the Indicated Area of 50 Percent of the Affected Population 8-4 8-3b Davis Besse Station Evacuation Time Estimates Time to clear the Indicated Area of 90 Percent of the Affected Population 8-5 8-3c Davis Besse Station Evacuation Time Estimates Time to Clear the Indicated Area of 100 Percent of the Affected Population 8-6 8-4a Davis Besse Station Evacuation Time Estimates Time to Clear the Indicated Radial Area of 50 Percent of the Affected Population 8-7 8-4b Davis Besse Station Evacuation Time Estimates Time to Clear the Indicated Radial Area of ~ 90 Percent of the Affected Population 8-8 8-4c Davis Besse Station Evacuation Time Estimates Time to clear the Indicated Radial Area of 100 Percent of the Affected Population 8-9 Ox 8-Sa Results of Evacuation Time Analysis, Summer, Midday, Midweek 8-17 8-5b Results of Evacuation Time Analysis, Summer, Midday, Midweek Flood 8-18 8-5c Results of Evacuation Time Analysis, Summer, Midday, Weekend 8-19 8-5d Results of Evacuation Time Analysis, Summer, Evening 8-20 8-Se Results of Evacuation Time Analsyis, Winter, Midday, Midweek (Rain) 8-21 8-5f Results of Evacuation Time Analysis, Winter Midday, Midweek (Snow) 8-22 8-5g Results of Evacuation Time Analysis, Winter Evening 8-23 6-Sh Results of Evacuation Time Analysis, Spring, Midday, Midweek, Flood 8-24 9-1 Households with 1 Car 9-2 9-2 Households with 2 Cars 9-3 9-3 Households with 3 Cars 9-4 9-4 Households with 4 Cars 9-5 9-5 Estimates of Ambulatory Persons Requiring Transit who DO NOT Reside in Special Facilities 9-7 9-6 Estimated Transit Requirements 9-8 9-7 Summary of Component Bus Evacuation Times 9-16 O v Rev. 1
~
List of Effective Paces Section Effective Paces 1 1 through 8 2 1 through 30 3 1 through 16 4 1 through 70 5 1 through 12 6 1 through ? 7 1 through a 8 1 through 24 9 1 through 28 10 1 through 2 11 1 through 2 Appendix A A-1 through A-5 Appendix B B-1 through B-3 Appendix C c-1 through C-7 Appendix D D-1 through D-8 Appendix E E-1 through E-9 Appendix F F-1 through F-5 Appendix G G-1 through G-22 - Appendix H H-1 through H-5 Appendix I I-1 through I-34 Appendix J J-1 through J-4 i O Appendix K Appendix L Appendix M K-1 L-1 M-1 through through through K-11 L-11 M-5 j - Appendix N N-1 through N-8 l l l l l l I i O i vii Rev. 1
- 1. INTRODUCTION
(~s This report describes the analyses undertaken, and the results obtained, in a study to update the existing Evacuation Plan for Davis Besse Station, located in Ottawa County, Ohio. This plan is designed to protect the health and safety of the public in the event that an evacuation is ordered as a protective action in response to an accident at Davis Besse Station. In the performance of this effort, all available prior documentation relevant to Evacuation Planning was reviewed. In addition, work products developed by previous consultants were incorporated, where appropriate. We wish to express our appreciation to all the directors and staff members of the Ottawa and Lucas County Offices of Emergency Preparedness and the various law enforcement agencies who provided "alued guidance. Other guidance is provided by documents published by Federal Government agencies. Most important of these are: Criteria for Preparation and Evaluation of Radiological Emergency Response Plans and Preparedness in Support of Nuclear Power Plants, NUREG 0654/ FEMA-REP-1, Rev. 1, November 1980. Analysis of Techniques for Estimating Evacuation Times for ()N x_ Emergency Planning Zones, NUREG/CR-1745, November 1980. 1.1 Overview of the Plan Uedate Process The following outline presents a brief description of the work effort in chronological sequence:
- 1. The initial effort consisted of gathering information:
e Initial meeting with representatives of Toledo Edison, Ottawa County, Port Clinton, Lucas County and Ohio State to define the scope of work. e Review of existing reports describing past evacuation studies, e Conducted a field survey of the EPZ highway system and of area traffic conditions. e Attended meatings and briefings with State and Local officials. e obtained demograpnic data from State Planning offices. O 1-1 nm _ - . Rev. O
- 2. After reviewing and analyzing this in[ormation, it was decided to proceed with the task of preparing the preliminary input stream for the IDYNEV model.
e Estimated the traffic demand based on the available information derived from Census data, from prior studies, and from data provided by local and State agencies and from the telephone survey. e Employed the procedures specified in the 1985 Highway capacity Manual (HCM) and the data acquired during the field survey, to ectimate the capacity of all highway segments comprising the evacuation routes. e Developed the link-node representation of the evacuation network, which is used as the basis for computer analysis which calculates the Evacuation Time Estimates (ETE). The IDYNEV System, developed by KLD for FEMA, was used to perform these calculations. e Developed a survey instrument to solicit data describing the travel patterns, car ownership and household size of the population within the Davis - Besse EpZ. This survey also obtained data on the public's projected resonses to an emergency at Davis Besse Station. A ls ,) e Retained a subcontractor to conduct a stratified random-sample survey of the populace within the Davis Besse EpZ. e Prepared the input stream for the IDYNEV System. e Executed IDYNEV to provide the initial estimates of evacuation routing and Evacuation Time Estimates (ETE) for a single scenario.
- 3. Distributions of Trip Generation times were estimated for the various population segments: permanent residents and transients (i.e. tourists and employees), seasonal residents and boaters rm Lake Erie. These estimates were primarily based upon tha telephone survey.
- 4. Evacuation scenarios were defined. These scenarios reflect the variation in demand, trip generation distribution and in highway capacity, associated with different seasons, day of week, time of day and weather conditions.
- 5. Updated the demand estimation of employees who work within the EpZ, based on more recent information obtained from major employers in the area, 1-2 Rev. O
- 6. Defined a preliminary set of traffic management tactics
( ') to be applied at specified Traffic Control Posts (TCP), for subsequent review by local and State police personnel.
- 7. Updated and expanded the preliminary ETE results to reflect the recent information quantifying the current employment estimates.
- 8. Partitioned the EPZ into subareas, then defined "Regions", where each region consists of a grouping of contiguous subareas. Each region, other than those which approximate circular areas, approximates a quadrant within the EPZ as required by NUREG 0654.
- 9. Assigned Host Communities to each community within the EPZ and developed traffic routing patterns for evacuating venicles.
- 10. Conducted a survey of sheriffs, local police chiefs and State Police within tne EPZ to solicit their opinions and recommendations on traffic routing, control and management. .
- 11. Using the traffic management policies derived in step 10, a complete set of ETE was computed. This set consists of
("sg over 90 distinct cases; each case corresponds to the () evacuation of a specified recion for a specified evacuation scenario. A total of 10 regions and 9 scenarios were considered. In addition, several special studies were conducted.
- 12. Documented the results of those studies in formats responsive to NUREG 0654.
- 13. Estimated demand for transit services for persons at home. Determined the number of bus trips and buses required for each route within each community. These i estimates were based on the census data base and on an analysis of route travel timec.
l l 14. Determined the ETE for all transit activities. l 1.2 Descriotion of the Emercency Plannina Zone (EPZ) l The Davis Besse site is located on the south shore of Lake Erie, in Ottawa County, Ohio. The site is situated i approximately 25 miles east of the City of Toledo, Ohio and 10 l miles west of the City of Port Clinton, Ohio at longitude 83 0 05' j W and latitude 410 36'N. I The area encompassing th? EPZ includes part or all of the following communities: (} l-3 Rev. O l .-. __ _ . . _ _ - - -
,-, .. . . . .- = - -- . . - - _ . _ . . -
Ottawa County O City of Port Clinton Benton Township Carroll Township Harris Township Erie Township Bay Township Lucas couray Jerusalem Township-(Bono) Figure 1-1 present the general site area surrounding the Davis Besse Nuclear Power Station (DBNPS). This map identifies both the communities in the area and the major roads. The lakeshore, within the EPZ, with the exception of the plant site, is primarily devoted to recreational activities. The area is home to many marinas serving Lake Erie boaters and has significant amounts of land raserved for public use in the form of parks and wildlife refuges. Areas away from the lakefront are primarily agricultural in r.ature. Commercial centers exist in Oak Harbor and Port Clinton. Industrial activity can be found east of DBNPS along State Route 2 (Erie Industrial Park) and on the outskirts of Port Clinton. . 1.3 Erpliminarv Activities Since this plan constitutes an undate of prior work, it was necessary to familiarize ourselves with the existing plan. ! These activities are described below. I Literature Review KLD Associates was provided with copies of documents (- describing past studies and analyses leading to the development i
- of evacuation plans and of ETE. We also obtained supporting L documents from a variety of sources, which contained information needed to form the data base used for conducting evacuation analyses. ;
Field Surveys Senior KLD personnel drove the entire highway system within l the EPZ and for some distance outsida. The chsracteristics of r each section of highway were recorded on audio tape. These characteristics include: Number of lanes Posted speed Pavement width Actual free speed Shoulder type & width Abutting land use Intersection configuration Control devices Interchange geometries O Lane channelization I Unusual characteristics: Geometrias: curves, grades 1-4 f Rev. 0 1
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The audio cassettes were then transcribed; this information was referenced while preparing the input stream fo.'.* the IDYNEV model. In addition, photographs of key highway features were taken during the field work. Telephone Survey A telephone survey was undertaken in order to gather information needed for the evacuation study. Appendix F exhibits the survey instrument. Appendix G contains tabulations of some of the data compiled from the survey returns. This data was utilized to develop estimates of vehicle occupancy during an evacuation and to estimate elapsed times between the issuance of an evacuation order and the start of , evacuation trips. This data base was also referenced to estimate the number of transit-dependent residents. Develonina the Evacuation Plan The overall study procedure is outlined in Appendix D.
- Demographic data was obtained from several sources, as detailed later in this report. This data was analyzed and converted into vehicle demand data.
) Highway capacity was estimated for each highway segment based on the field surveys and on the principles specified in the 1985 Highway Capacity Manual (HCM). The link-node representation of the physical highway network was developed using large-scale maps and the observations obtained from the field survey. This network is shown in Figure 1-2.
Analytical Tools l l A variety of analytical tools was employed for this study. The most prominant of these is the IDYNEV (Interactive Dynamic . Network Evacuation) computer system which was developed by KLD under contract with the Federal Emergency Management Agency 7 (FEMA). ! IDYNEV consists of three submodels: l e An equilibrium traffic assignment model (for details, see l , Appendix B)
- e A macroscopic traffic s(mulation model (for details, see l l Appendix C) ,
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rx e An intersection capacity model (for det' ails, see Highway () Research Record No. 772, Transportation Research Board, 1980, papers by Lieberman and McShane & Lieberman). The procedure for applying IDYNEV within the framework of developing an update to the Davis Besse Evacuation Plan is outlined in Appendix D. Appendix A is a glossary of terms used in Traffic Engineering. The evacuation analysis procedures are based upon the need to: o Route traffic along paths of travel that will expedite their travel from their respective points of origin to points outside the EPZ restrict movement toward Davis Besse Station to the extent practicable disperse traffic demand so as to avoid focusing demand on a limited number of highways e satisfy, to the extent possible under emergency conditions, perceived "bast" paths out of the EPZ e Move traffic in directions which are generally radial, O relative to the location of Davis Besse Station. A Trip Table
- is specified which satisfies the specified linkage betweer. communities within the EPZ and host communities outside the EPZ. The IDYNEV Traffic Assignment model is executed to produce output which identifies the "best" traffic routing, subject to the design conditions outlined above. In addition to this information, (very) rough estimates of travel time are provided, together with turn-movement data required by the IDYNEV simulation model.
The simulation model is then executed to provide a detailed description of traffic operations on the evacuation network. This description enables the analyst to identify bottlenecks and to develop countermeasures which are designed to expedite the movement of vehicles. As outlined in Appendix D, this procedure consists of an iterative design-analysis-redesign sequence of activities. If properly done, this procedure converges to yield an Evacuation Plan which best services the evacuating public. I *A matrix of origin-destination demand volumes. V) l-8 END Rev. O
- 2. DEMAND ESTIMATION The estimates of demand constitute a critical element in developing an evacuation plan. This estimate consists of three components:
- 1. An estimate of population, stratified into groups, in communities within tha EP3.
- 2. An estimate, for each population grouping, of mean occupancy per evacuating vehicle. This estimate is used to determine the number of evacuating vehicles.
- 3. An estimate of potential double-counting of vehicles.
Appendix E presents much of the source material for the population estimates. A variation of the approach defined above was used to estimate park area traffic. This change in approach was necessary since the majority of park traffic consists of transients, most of whom enter the EPZ from locations outside. As a result, we relied on empirical observation of the number of vehicles which can physically be accommodated within park, areas. This technique is valid since discussions with public officials confirmed that, with few exceptions, people at the park l O have access to a vehicle. Thus, the evacuation of people from the park area will be primarily reflected in the number of evacuating private vehicles. , l l By accurately estimating the number of vehicles at park l areas, we have satisfied the input requirements for an evacuation l plan. Estimates of population can be based on accurate estimates of per-vehicle person occupancy. Thus, for tr.e park area, more reliable estimates are forthcoming if we reverse the sequence of steps 1 and 2, above, by first estimating the number of evacuating vehicles, then using the vehicle-occupancy figure to estimate population. During the summer season, vacationers and tourists enter the EPZ. These non-residents may dwell within the EPZ for the entire season, for a short period (e.g. one or two weeks), for a weekend, overnight, or may enter and leave within one day. Estimates of the size of these population components must be obtained, so that the associated number of vehicles can be ascertained. The spectre of double-counting of people and vehicles must be addressed: a vehicle and its occupants cannot occupy two disparate locations at the same time. Consider a vacationing family that registers at a motel, travels to a park in the morning, then does some shopping, away from the park, in the
. evening before returning to the motel. If we consider a scenario l
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r where the accident occurs at about 2:00 PM when the parks are (- most crowded, then this family, and its vehicle, would most likely be at the park. If an evening scenario is being studied, then the vehicle would be at a retail parking lot, or perhaps, back at the motel. Clearly, since this vehicle cannot be at all 3 locations simultaneously, its location at the instant an order to evacuate is announced, depends on the scenario being studied. It is seen that the number of vehicles at each location depends on time of day. It is clearly wronc to c.Mimate counts of vehicles by simply adding up the capacities of different types of parking facilities, without considering the whereabouts of the vehicles. For example, motel parking lots which are full at dawn, may be almost empty at noon. Similarly, parking lots at area parks which are full at noon, may be almost empty at dawn. Another element that must be considered in an evacuation plan is the need to provide for transit-dependent people. These people may be youngsters in school, persons in institutions without access to private vehicles or who cannot provide for themselves, as well as residents and tourists who do not have - access to a private vehicle. Analysis of the population characteristics of the Davis Besse EPZ indicates the need to identify five distinct groups: o Permanent residents - people who are year round residents of the EPZ. e Seasonal residents - people who reside in the EPZ for a portion of the year, generally the peak summer season. e Transients - people who reside outside of the EPZ vho enter the area for a specific purpose (shopping, recreation) and then leave the area. e Employees - people who reside outside of the EPZ and commute to business within the EPZ on a daily basis, o Boaters on Lake Erie who use marinas within the EPZ. Estimates of the population and numbers of vehicles to be expected for each of the population groups will now be presented. Estimates will bt presented in two forms. First by Evacuation Subarea, secondly by polar coordinate representation (population rose). It is important to note that the population roses displayed herein are for presentation purposes only. The roses are not part of the data base used to estimate evacuation times. Evacuation time estimates are based upon a considerably more (-) 2-2 Rev. O
/~S detailed representation of the spatial distribution of (',) population. The more detailed representation is seen in Figure l-2. Node numbers labelled 2000 through 2999 represent locations in the EPZ where local population groups begin the evacuation trip. The Davis Besse EPZ have been subdivided into 12 subareas. These areas are shown in Figure 2-1. Permanent Residents The starting point for the estimates of permanent population must, of necessity be previous planning efforts. These, in turn, were based on analyses of the 1980 census. Consequently, it was necessary to estimate population growth for the period 1980-1986. An estimate by the Ohio Data Users Center (ODUC) projects a population loss between 1980 and 1966 for the Ottawa County area of approximately 0.21 percent. Other estimates (TMACOG*) project nominal changes in population for the area. Consequently, it can be reasonably, perhaps conservatively, assumed that there was n2 chance in permanent population between 1980 and 1986. Population estimates for the portion of the EPZ in Lucas County (Subarca 11) were obtained from the 1986 Work by Stone & Webster. b \/ The second step of the estimation process is the estimation of the average number of people which may be expected to occupy each evacuating vehicle. Appendix H presents the methodology used to determine average vehicle occupancy. Using the value obtained through the computation presented in Appendix H (2.6 persons / vehicle), number of evacuating vehicles servicing tha permanent residents may be calculated. Permanent population and vehicle estimates for 1986 are presented in Figure 2-2. Data in this figures are displayed as totals within each subarea. A total of 12 subareas are defined for the Davis Besse EPZ. Figures 2-3 and 2-4 present the permanent population and vehicle distributions displayed by sector. It can be argued that accepting this estimate of permanent residents serves to overstate, somewhat, the number of evacuating vehicles, especially during the summer. It is certainly reasonable to assert that some portion of the population would be on vacation during the summer and would travel elsewhere. A rough estimate of this reduction can be obtained as follows: () 7Toledo Metropolitan Area Council of Governments 2- 3 Rev. O
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liEHICLES 'I0TALS RING MILES VEHIC ES TOTAL WILES $$cty d o.2 223 o.2 223 2.s 519 os 742 s .10 7532 o*10 8274 Figure 2-4. Permanent Population Vehicle Distribution O Davis Besse EPZ i 2-7 gey, o
/~'g 1. Assume 60 percent of the households vacation over the (j summer, for a two-week period.
- 2. Assume these vacations, in aggregate, are uniformly dispersed over 10 weeks, i.e. 12 percent of the population is on vacation during each two-week interval.
- 3. Assume half of these vacationers leave the area.
On this basis, the resident population would be reduced by 6 percent in the summer and by a lesser amount in the off-season. The same rationale will lead to the conclusion that the number of employees who work within the EPZ on a full-time (i.e. non-seasonal) basis would also be reduced by that percentage over the summer. This six percent reduction translates into about 500 vehicles. Seasonal Poculation The seasonal population estimates were based upon the 1980 estimates presented in Appendix D of the current plan. These numbers were checked in 1984 through the use of a survey /housecount performed by Toledo Edisons' Environmental - Group. The survey did not find significant changes to the 1980 numbers. Recently, however, there has been a growth in the O construction of condominium residences both in Port Clinton and on Route 2, West of DBNPS. We have included population and vehicle projections for this building activity in our 1986 estimates for seasonal population. Vehicular estimates for seasonal housing assumed the following: e Motel / Hotel occupancy - 1 vehicle per rented room e other seasonal housing - 2.6 persons / vehicle Figure 2-5 presents the seasonal population distributions (both people and vehicles) by subarea. Figures 2-6 and 2-7 present the same data in Polar Sector format. ' Transient Population l Transient population gr9ups are defined as those people who i enter the EPZ for a specific purpose (shopping, recreation) and who leave on the same day. The Davis Besse EPZ has a number of areas which aturact transients in significant numbers: o Port Clinton - shopping, access to ferries, etc. o Camp Perry - National Rifle / Pistol matches O 2-8 Rev. 0
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[3498 l TO tot 0 M oe l 86 l ! VEHICLES TOTALS MING WILES R y g g',NC ES TOTAL WILES C LAT E e( ' 02 1229 o2 1229 2*5 117 05 1546 ! S to 1952 o .1o 3498 .1 1 Figure 2-7. Seasonal Population Vehicle Distribution Davis Besse EPZ
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rg e Wildlife refuges, parks - day trip recr'eational use (
,j f e Marinas - boaters on Lake Erie will be considered separately.
Because the great majority of paople utilizing these fscilities travel in private vehicles, it is possible to estimate the transient population by first obtaining an estimate of the parking capacity of each facility and then applying a per vehicle occupancy factor to arrive at the population estimate. Care must be taken to avoid counting vehicles belonging to permanent residents who use the facilities as belonging to the transient ' category. A factor of 2.8 persons per vehicle was used in these estimates. This figure is the average household size in ottawa County and, hence, represents a reasonable vehicle occupancy for recreational purposes. The following are estimates of transient population of each of these facilities. Transient estimates for each of these activities were developed. These techniques attempt to estimate numbers of vehicles. Population estimates assume 2.8 people per transient vehicles. . Port Clinton (~'g datas (a) 24 hr. traffic counts on Perry St. during August 5 gj 1984 (b) year round average traffic counts on Perry St.
- 1. 1984 ADT (2 directions) 24239 vehicles for Friday, Saturday, Sunday during August
- 2. 1982 ODOT year round 11960 ADT
- Peak Summer excess vehicles I2279 (2-direction) Peak Summer vehicles (1-direction) 6139 vehicles Seasonal Vehicle estimates 1154 Peak transient vehicles 4985, say 5000 Using a vehicular occupancy for transient vehicles of 2.8 persons / vehicle, a population estimate of 14000 is achieved. I j Camo Perrv 7 The national rifle and pistol matches are held at Camp Perry : during July and August of each year. Discussions with Carp Perry () offices indicate a peak attendance of approximately 5000 people. 2-12 Hov 0
4 Wildlife Refuces, Parks ( v, A number of sources of information regarding population estimates for the parks and wildlife refuges in the EPZ were utilized: e contacts were made with park managers or rangers, e contacts with ohio Department of Natural Resources. o Aerial photographs. e Manual data collection. Previous studies have estimated the maximum transient population at the ottawa National Wildlife Refuge and Crane Creek Wildlife Station at 500 and 300 per day. Estimates for Crane Creek State Park range upwards to 14000 people on a peak day. Visits to the Wildlife Refuges and Experimental Stations indicated the previous population estimates were reasonable. However, talks with park managers indicate that Crane Creek Park and Wildlife Refuge has approximately 2600 parking spaces. These spaces include both designated parking and empty fields used for overflow parking. Park managers riso indicate that the vast majority of people arrive in privato automobiles and that - i significant parking is not present on the park access road or on State Route 2, outside of the park boundary. Using peak parking estimates and an estimate of 2.8 persons [~'/) s_ per transient vehicle yields a peak period attendance of approximately 7300 people. This is well below the estimate of 14000 people. consequently, it was decided to collect data at Crane Creek Park over the long, July 4, 1986 weekend. An automated traffic counter was placed on the Crane Creek Park access road. Table 2-1 presents a summary of the traffic counts. Note that the 24 hour peak park attendance occurred on Sunday, July 6. A total of 5,561 vehicles were counted entering and leaving the park (Tr?ffic Counts were two direction counts). This implies the maximum number of vthicles in the park at any one time is approximately one half, or 2780 vehicles. This number is consistent with the parking capacity of the park. The data collected therefore supports the use of 2600 vehicles as the peak park transient vehicle count. Further data was collected at the park to determine the origin of vehicles in the parking fields A license place survey was conducted in an attempt to identify the county or state of origin of the vehicle. The results of this survey are presented in Table 2-2. ! These results yield two pieces of information. First, the natural westbound and southbound evacuation routes from the park p) (~, (Route 2, Route 579, Route 590) are already the routes of choice for the normal park to home trip for approximately 60-70 percent 2-13 Rev. O
i ,rx Table 2-1. Crane Creek State Park Traffic Counts V, TRAFFIC COUNTS R Aw A.o.T. aa so veo . LUC AS COUNTY ENGINEER'S OFFICE R AW PK.HR. 72.0 Y. R . , ' r- - A DJ. ADT. _ v..o g
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LOCATl0N: Ceane Creek sue Po, L - Boo'a f sR. 2 6 5:ach DATE:Jy// J k 7, /96f COUNTER NO. /c T. M. A.C.O.G. N O. DAYS S U N. MON. TU ES. W ED. THURS. FRI. SAi. DATES 7-6-8G 7-7-66 7-2 -6G
. 7-3-8G 7-4 -dC 7- 5-d ?
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l 1 e l ( Table 2-2. Results of Crane Creek License Plate Survey. g Date: Friday, July 4, 1986 Place of Number of Oriain Vehicles Percentaae Ottawa Co. 53 6.4 Lucas Co. 419 50.0 Wood Co. 104 12.6 Sandusky Co. 57 6.9 Erie Co. 10 1.2 Other Ohio 128 16.6 Michigan 30 3.6 Other States M M 824 100.0 - O P O 2-15 Rev. O
g-s of the park population. Secondly, approximate'ly 6 percent of the (_) park population already live in the EPZ (Ottawa Co.). These people are assumed to evacuate from home. Thus, using 2600 vehicles to estimate peak park transient vehicles may be high by up to 6 percent due to the double counting of Ottawa County vehicles. Therefore, it was deemed realistic to use 2440 vehicles (94% of 2600). Figure 2-8 presents transient population and vehicle estimates by subarea. Figures 2-9 and 2-10 present the transient population and vehicle data by sectors. Emolovees Employees who work within the EPZ fall into two categories: e Those who live and work in the EPZ. e Those who live outside of the EPZ and commute to jobs within the EPZ. The first of these categories have already been counted as part of the permanent population. Therefore, to avoid double counting, we focus on those employees whose evacuation trip corresponds with their normal work to home trip. Discussions with the Otthwa County Planning Board indicated that, aside from the major employers, the EPZ does not draw large numbers of employees who live outside of the area. Consequently, we decided to concentrate our efforts on the large employers. The major employees operating within the Davis Besse EPZ are: e Toledo Edison (DBNPS) e Erie Industrial Park e Standard Products, Port Clinton e P.C. Manufacturing, Port Clinton e Ottawa County Offices, Port Clinton Toledo Edison Using home telephone number prefixes, the percentage of emergency planning personnel residing outside of the EPZ was found to be 70 percent. Applying this factor to the projected workforce at DBNPS yields approximately 700 people. Erie Industrial Park Telephone contacts with the property manager at the industrial park yields an estimate of 600 employees living () outside of the EPZ. 2-16 r Rev. 0
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I O1 , f) l 0 l N l 01 NHW NNE o IO l 0 0 W NW NE 10 mtes o o WNW ENE 1467 0 l 0 l o o o 0 0 o o o2o 0 0-W 6843 i 0 E N o 0 l 0 l o 0oo o N /, 0 5000 0 0 WSW o o ESE O ' e .- ; ' i ei 0 15500 SW SE l 0 l 0 70 l20500l SSW SSE I OI $ 1 70 1 8 P'8"H " 19_150 } I*'d' 3o"@"' [ 270 l POPULATION TOTALS RING, MILES POPubION TOTAL MILES M QAj T o.2 0 o.2 0 25 5070 05 5070 5 10 240R0 0 10 29150 Figure 2- 9. Transient Population Distribution Davis Besse EPZ 2-18 Rev. O
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l o.2 o o2 o 25 1811 o*5 1811 5 10 acon 0 10 10407 Figure 2-10. Transient Population Vehicle Distribution Davis Besse EPZ 2-19 Rev. O
I i I Port Clinton Contacts with major employers indicate approximately 1000 people per day commute to Port Clinton from outside the EPZ. A factor of 1.28 persons per employee vehicle was used to determine the number of ovacuating vehicles. This figure was obtained from 1980 census figures for Ottawa County: Source: 1980 Census, Ottawa Co. Drive alone 11620 2-person carpool 2144 3-person carpool 412 4-person carpool 190 5 or more person carpool 77
.14443 mean = 1.28 pers/veh.
Figure 2-11 presents employee and vehicle estimates by subarea. Figures 2-12 and 2-13 present this data by sector. Boaters One of the principal features of the Davis Besse EPZ is the high utilization of Lake Erie by boaters during the peak summer {j} x_ season. Boaters on the lake raise several issues with regard to evacuation planning.
- 1. How many boats are launched from areas inside the EPZ.
- 2. Where are these boats launched from.
- 3. Will boats return to marinas inside of the EPZ and, if so, what time lags will be encountered.
Issues 1 and 2 will be discussed here, issue 3 will be discussed in Section 4. In general, boaters on theHowever, lake will be it is advised to proceed to marinas outside of the EPZ. not likely that the Coast Guard has sufficient resources to enforce such a recommendation. Further, boaters would, in all probability, prefer to return to the marinas they launched from to retrieve their automobiles. Hence, we believe it is prudent to assume that all boaters launched from marinas in th9 EPZ will return to those marinas to begin evacuating. As a starting point we obtained a list of all marinas operating in Ottawa County by the Health Dept. Following the opening of the 1986 boating season, we contacted about 15 marinas in the EPZ to ascertain O 2-20 Rev. O
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TOTAL MILES C L^ VEHIC ES CL 02 552 02 552 25 469 0*5 1021 5 10 781 0 10 1821 Figure 2-13. Employment Population Vehicle Distribution Davis Besse EPZ O i Rev. 0 2-23
a (a) The number of boats at slips. ('N '~') (b) The number of boats launched from ramps. (c) The available vehicular parking capacity. As a result of this telephone survey, the following information was abstracteu:
- 1. Marinas, in aggregate, launch about half as many boats as they have slips.
- 2. Marina utilization on a peak summer day is estimated at 75 percent by marina operators.
Marina's in Lucas County were observed in aerial photographs over the Memorial Day Weekend in 1986. The number of boat slips at each of the marinas in Lucas County within the EPZ was estimated after examining the aerial photographs. A summary of the boating population by township is presented in Table 2-3. It was assumed that, on average each boat is serviced by a single evacuating vehicle. Figure 2-14 presents population and evacuation vehicle - distributions by subarea. Figures 2-15 and 2-16 present this data by polar sector. One issue which must be addressed is the potential for double ('/ A_ s s counting the boating population. That is, what segment of the 6990 boats are being used by people who have been previously counted as permanent, seasonal or transients? At this time no effort has been made to quantify this problem for the following reason. Although the notification process for boaters on Lake Erie begins earlier than that for the general population, the longer response time (time needed to sail / motor back to a marina, load the boat on a trailer, or dock the craft) coupled with potential congestion on the marina access roads makes it difficult for residents of the area to return home quickly. Therefore, it is assumed that family members at home would evacuate without the boater. The boater would then be assumed to evacuate directly from the marina. Medical-Related Facilities The existing Ottawa and Lucas County Plans presents estimates of the population of facilities such as hospitals, nursing and retirement homes and other health-related facilities. The number of vehicles associated with this estimate depends on the patients' state of health. Buses can transport up to 40 people; vans, up to 12 people; ambulances, up to 2 people (patients). O 2-24 Rev. 0
o O Table 2-3. Summary of Boating Population ( j/ Boat Evacuation Ottawa Co. Slios Launches (1) Vehicles (2) Bay Twp. 116 58 145 Carroll Twp. 2073 1036 2591 Erie Twp. 985 492 974 Port Clinton 779 389 80 Salem Twp. 64 32 80 Lucas Co. 1575 786 1969 Totals 5592 2795 6990 Notes: 1. Half as many boats are launched as there are available slips.
- 2. 75 percent of boats moored at slips and 100 percent of boats launched are used during a peak day.
One evacuating vehicle is assumed per boat. O 2-25 Rev. O
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02 5634' 02 5634 25 440V o5 8094 5 10 588G o 1o 13980 Figure 2- 15. Boating Popultation Distribution Davis Besse EPZ O V 2 2 '! Rev. O
I o I I o l N lo l NHW HHE o I o I o o I oI NW HE 10 Mites o o WNW o o EHE I 30011 1969 5 o I o I o 0
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Once again, the prospect of (*.ouble-counting is present. The (-~) population of nursing and retirement homes is included in the resident population. Thus, the vehicle estimates for this group have already been determined on the basis of 2.6 persons per vehicle. Since many residents can be transported in buses (up to 40 persons) while others in ambulances (1 or 2 persons), it is reasonable to state that thes2 people are already accounted for, in terms of the resident vehicle count. Details of the evacuation of schools and medical related special facilities are discussed in Section 9. Table 2-4 presents a summary of population and vehicle estimates by subarea. O O 2-29 Rev. 0
l Table 2-4. Subarea Summary of Population and Vehicle Estimates Population Groups Permanent Seasonal Transient Employment Boatina
-Subarea 1 Pop. 829 3782 0 706 5182 Veh. 319 1455 0 552 2591 2 Pop. 877 139 70 0 0 Veh. 337 92 25 0 0 3 Pop. 3231 0 0 0 0 Veh. 1243 0 0 0 0 4 Pop. 100 0 0 0 0 1 Veh. 38 0 0 0 0 ,
5 Pop. 4934 0 200 0 160 Veh. 1898 0 71 0 80 6 Pop. 500 0 5000 600 0 Voh. 192 0 1786 469 0
) 7 Pop. 1018 1828 1500 0 290 Veh. 392 703 536 0 145 8 Pop. 1815 0 70 0 2462 Veh. 698 0 25 0 1231 9 Pop. 7223 3000 14000 1000 1948 Veh. 2778 1154 5000 781 974 10 Pop. 0 0 6843 0 0 Veh. 0 0 2440 0 0 11 Pop. 987 246 1467 0 3938 Veh. 380 95 524 0 1969 12 Pop. 0 0 0 0 0 Veh. 0 0 0 0 0 TOTALS-Pop. 21514 9095 29150 2306 13980 Veh. 8274 3498 10407 1821 6990 ,
O 2-30 END Rev. 0
q 3. ESTIMATION OF HIGHWAY CAPACITY
's The ability of the road network to accommodate demand is a major factor in determining how rapidly an evacuation can be completed. It is, therefore, necessary to know the capacity of the available roadways.
In general, the capacity of a facility is defined as the maximum hourly rate at which persons or vehicles can reasonably be expected to traverse a point or uniform section of a lane or roadway during a given time period under prevailing roadway, traffic and control conditions. (From the 1985 Highway Capacity Manual.) In discussing capacity, different operating conditions have been assigned alphabetical designations, A through F, to generally reflect varying traffic operational characteristics. These designations have been termed "Levels of Service". For example, Level A connotes free-flow and high-speed operating conditions; Level F represents a forced flow condition. Level E describes traffic operating at capacity. Because of the effect of weather on the capacity of a - roadway, it is necessary to adjust capacity figures to represent estimated road conditions during inclement weather. Based on t limited empirical data, weather conditions such as heavy rain 3 reduce the values of capacity for highways by approximately 20
) percent. For inclement weather conditions during the winter months, we have estimated capacity reductions of approximately 25 i
percent relative to normal weather conditions. We also reduce free flow speeds for inclament weather conditions: 20 percent for rain, 25 percent for winter, i In the congested traffic environment which is often characteristic of an evacuation scenario, travel time on a l roadway section is, to a large extent, determined by the capacity l of that section. For that reason, estimates of roadway capacity must be determined with great care. Because of its importance, a brief discussion of the major factors which influence capacity, is presented in this section. 1 1 The major factors which control capacity include: e On the approach to intersections Saturation queue discharge headways Turning movements Competing traffic streams i Control policy. lUSE) l 3-1 ! Rev. 0
e Along sections of roadway Roadway geometrics Traffic composition e General considerations Weather conditione Pavement conditions Lighting Canacity Estimations on Anoroaches to Intersections At-grade intersections are apt to become the first bottleneck locations under heavy traffic volume conditions. This characteristic reflects the need to allocate access time to the respective competing traffic streams by exerting some form of control. During evacuation, however, control at critical intersections, will often be provided by traffic control personnel assigned for that purpose, whose directions may supercede traffic control devices. The capacity of an approach to an intersection can be - expressed in the following form: 3600 G-L 3600 Ocap,m " h C h m ( Os m - m m where Qcap,m ' capacity of traffic on an approach, which executes movement, m, upon entering the intersection; vehicles per hour (vph) hm = Mean queue discharge headway of vehicles on an approach, which are executing movement, m; seconds per vehicle Gm = The mean duration of GREEN time servicing vehicles on an approach, which are executing movement, m, for each control cycle; seconds L = The mean "lost time" for each control cycle; seconds C = The mean duration of each control cycle; seconds Pm = The proportion of tine allecated for vehicles executing movement, m, from an approach. This value is specified as part of the control treatmer.t . m = The movement executed by vehicles after they enter the intersection: througn, left-turn, right-turn, O diagonal. k , 3-2 Rev. O s
,----,w v_..,-,,-, ann,,wa~,--,-,,, ..wa-,-- -,~,----.-,.---,,-,.,,,-,en_ .,,-,w-- , - - - , ,,,,,,-nmn,m,- ---w --,-,n ,,,.-.--m
(N) The turn-movement-specific mean discharge headway h , depends in a complex way upon many factors: roadway geometrics,m turn percentages, the extent of conflicting traffic streams, the control treatment, and others. A primary factor is the value of "saturation queue discharge headway", hsat, which applies to through vehicles which are not impeded by other conflicting traffic streams. This value, itself, depends upon many factors including motorist behavior, but is relatively straightforward to determine empirically in the field. Formally, we can write, hm"fm (hsat, F, 1 Fs 2 ) where hsat = Saturation discharge headway for through vehicles; seconds per vehicle F1, F2 = The various known factors influencing h m fm( ) = Complex function relating hm to the known (or estimated) values of hsat, F1, F2 The estimation of h m for specified values of hsat, F1, F, 2 ... is undertaken by a mathematical model* which has been programmed into the Traffic Assignment and Traffic Simulation i f-~g software of the IDYriEV System. The resulting values for hm ( ,) always satisfy the condition: hm2hsat That is, the turn-movement-specific discharge headways are always more than, or equal to, the saturation discharge headway for : through vehicles. I I 1 l *Lieberman, E., "Determining Lateral Deployment of Traffic on an l Approach to an Intersection", McShane, W. & Lieberman, E.,
"Service Rates of Mixed Traffic on the far Left Lane of an
- Approach". Both papers appear in Transportation Research Record l
772, 1980. l ** Interestingly, studies have shown that hsat decreases (i.e. l capacity increases) during periods of congestion, relative to l that during off-peak traffic conditions. This behavior I reflects the fact that motorists are more attentive and are l highly motivated to reduce their travel time, during congested j conditions, our estimates do not include this beneficial O effect. U 3-3 Rev. O i
It is seen that, given the ability to determine h m from haats {~') s_, the determination of capacity of the approaches te intersections depends upon obtaining estimates of hsat. Such estimates were obtainec, empirically at representative intersections throughout the EPZ. In all cases, the values of hsat used in developing the evacuation plan represent conservative estimates ** based on this empirical data. Specifically, observed values for hsat ranged from 2.1 to 2.4 sec/veh; the higher (more conservative) figure was adopted. To summarize the foregoing discussion: e The saturation queue discharge headways, hsat, for through vehicles can be quantified by empirical observation e The turn-movement-specific headways, h m, oca then calculated, taking into account the effects of turn movement percentages, link geometry and other factors e With the control treatment prescribed as part of the evacuation plan, the value of Pm may be defined e The capacity for each turn movement is then formed from* equation (1). Capacity Estimation Alona Sections of Hiahway (3 \s l The capacity of highway sections -- as distinct from approaches to intersections -- is a function of roadway geometrics, traffic composition (e.g. percent heavy trucks and buses in the traffic stream) and, of course, motorist behavior. There is a fundamental relationship which relates service volume (i.e. the number of vehicles which can pass a point in a given time period) to traffic density. Figure 3-1 describes this relationship. As indicated there, the service volume increases as density increases, until the service volume attains its maximum value, VE, which is the capacity of the highway section. Note that as density increases beyond this "critical" value, the rate at which traffic can be serviced (i.e. the service volume) declines below capacity. Therefore, in order to realistically represent traffic performance during congested conditions (i.e. when density exceeds the "critical" value), it is necessary to estimate the service volume, Vy, under congested conditions. This value, Vy, which is less than capacity, VE, should be used for developing the evacuation plan and for estimating evacuation times, whenever congested conditions prevail. O 3-4 Rev. O
O O O se_. rice volc=c , , , _, (veh/ hour) i Free-flowing i Ir. creased Intor"vehicle inter- Stop-and- Higher densities
- traffics little interactions actions produce Go opera- possible but observed interaction among reduce speeds - disturbances and in- tions with- very infrequently vehicles stable flow crease speed varianco, in a queue Some stoppages and state sk miene formations Capacity q{Servicevolume under congested I, Conditions w
\
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Figure 3-1. Fundamental Relationship betwmn Volume and Density l
7s The value of Vp can be expressed as: Vp = R VE where R = Reduction factor which is less than 'anity. Based on empirical data collected on freeways, we have employed a value of R = 0.85. We also apply the reduction factor, R, on approaches to intersections. Here, the use of a factor to lower the value of capacity reflects the possibility that some motorists may respond more slowly to police control which, at some times, may conflict with the control device indication. Such sicsar responses, which translate into lower capacities, justify the use of V VE on all highway segments of the evacuation network,pwhenever instead of congestion prevails. The estimated value of capacity, V ,E is based primarily upon the type of facility (e.g. controlled access such as Route 2, uncontrolled cccess such as Route 53) and on roadway geometrics. Clearly, a winding narrow road has significantly lower service volume than does the Route 2. Sections of roadway with poor - geometrics are characterized by: e Lower free-flow speeds than on highways with good tN geometrics. \} e Longer headways separating moving vehicles. The first factor increases travel time when ccnditions are undersaturated. The latter factor produces lower service volumes, thereby reducing capacity. The procedure used here was to estimate "section" capacity, V, E based on our observations travelling over each section of the evacuation network and by reference to the Highway capacity Manual. We then determined for each highway section, represented as a network link, whether its capacity would be limited by the "section-specific" service volume, VE or by the intersection-specific capacity, Qcap,m. For each link, we selected the lower value of capacity. General Considerations Inclement weather and the associated poor lighting conditions, and poor or wet pavement conditions reduce capacity by virtue of: e Lower free-flow speeds reflecting greater caution on the part of motorists. O e Longer vehicle headways reflecting lower traction and/or more cautious driver behavior. 3-6 Rev. 0
The decrease in service volume due to these factors can be (~) estimated based on either direct observation or by referencing
-( j other studies in the literature.
Acolication to Davis Besse EPZ As part of the development of the Davis Besse traffic network, an estimate of roadway capacity is required. The source material for the capacity estimates presented herein is contained in: 1985 Highway Capacity Manual (HCM), Special Report 209 Transportation Research Board National Research Council Washington, D.C. 1985 The highway system in the Davis Besse EPZ consists primarily of three categories of roads: e Two-lane rural roads e Multi-lane Expressways
- e Freeway ramps Each of these classifications will be discussed.
l Two-Lane Rural Roads Ref: HCM Chapter 8 As a further aid to the estimate of roadway capacity, we have adopted the following three general types of rural roads:
- 1. "Low" design roads - 10 ft. lanes, 1 ft. shoulders
- 2. "Medium" design roads - 11 ft. lanes, 2 ft, shoulders
- 3. "High" design roads - 12 ft. lanes, 4 ft. shoulders General relationship - The~ relationship describing traffic operations on general terrain segments is as follows:
SFi = 2,800 x (v/c)i x fd x fw xfHV where: CFi = prevailing total service flow rate in both directions for roadway and traffic conditions, for level of service i, in vph () (v/c)1 = ratio of flow rate to ideal capacity for level of service i, obtained from HCM Table 8-1 3-7 Rev. 0
- - - ----___--_______________________J
o
. (' ) fd = adjustment factor for directional distribution of traffic, obtained from HCM Table 8-4 I
( fy = adjustment factor for narrow lanes and restricted shoulder width, obtained from HCM Table 8-5 fHV = adjustment factor for the presence of heavy vehicles in the traffic stream, which can be computed as ou? lined in the HCM We have applied these procedures of the 1985 HCM to obtain estimates of the "section" capacities of two-lane roads within the EPZ. An outline of these procedures is presented below. Note that capacity is defined as the service flow of Level of Service, LOS E. Based on the field survey and on expected traffic operations associated with evacuation scenarios: e The two-lane reads within the EPZ are classified as "flat terrain". e Percent no passing zones is approximately 25. e Directionality of traffic moving over two-lane roads during evacuation will approximate a "split" of 90 percent (is ,/') moving outbound; 10 percent moving inbound, averaged over the duration of the evacuation. e Traffic mix is: 1% trucks, 1% buses, 4% recreational vehicles during the summer. On this basis, the value of v/c of LOS E is 1.00 taken from Table 8-1 of the HCM. The directional split factor, fd is 0.75 from Table 8-4 of the HCM. These factors apply to all four rural road types. The road width factors, fy, are obtained from Table 8-5 of the HCh: e "Low" design roads - 0.66 e "Medium" design roads - 0.81 o "High" design roads - 0.93 The vehicle mix factor is based both on the percentages of heavy vehicles and on the Passenger Car Equivalent (PCE) value of each vehicle type. Table 8-6 of the HCM gives PCE values for different vehicle types, level of service, and type of terrain. A Vehicle mix factor of fHV = 0.96 was chosen using factors from this table and Equation 8-2 of the HCM. On this basis, the O. following values were obtained: 3-8 Rev. 0
(c~ (_,/ The following table represents the two-way and one-way (directional) capacity estimates for the three road types identified: 2-way 1-way Equivalent VE VE Headway Road Type (V/C) fd fw fHV (vph) (vph) (sec) Low design 1.00 0.75 0.66 0.96 1330 1197 3.0 Medium design 1.00 0.75 0.81 0.96 1633 1470 2.4 High design 1.00 0.75 0.93 0.96 1874 1687 2.1 Notes: 1. The one-way capacities of roads for evacuating vehicles are calculated by :aultiplying the two-way values obtained from the HCM procedures, by the directional split, 0.9.
- 2. These directional (i.e. one-way) estimates will be multiplied by the factor, R = 0.85, when the traffic ~
is moving under congested conditions. Most of the roads in the Davis Besse EPZ fall into the "low [~ \s ) design" category. Sections of Route 2 and Route 53 would fall into the "medium", or even "high" design groupings. However, due to relatively narrow shoulders, these routes will also be placed on the "low" design category. Streets of Port Clinton are considered urban streets. Their capacity is governed by the type of traffic control at the downstream end of the street. Freeway Capacity There is one freeway segment in the Davis Besse EPZ; Route 2, east of the Portage River. A general relationship is used to compute the one-way freeway service flow at different Levels of Service: SFi = c3 x (v/c)1 x N x fw xfHV X f p where: SFi e service flow rate for LOS i under prevailing roadway and traffic conditions for N lanes in one direction, in vph () (v/c)1 = maximum volume-to-capacity ratio associated with LOS i 3-9 Rev. O
c) = capacity under ideal conditions for freeway element of design speed j; 2,000-pcphpl for 60 mph and 70 mph freeway elemonts, 1,900 pcphpl for 50 me' freeway elements; the value of c is synon; ..: with themaximumserviceflowratefohLOSE N = number of lanes in one direction of the freeway tw = facter to adjust for the effects of restricted lane widths and/or lateral clearancea fHV = factor to adjust for the effect of heavy vehicles (trucks, buses and recreational vehicles) in the traffic stream fp = factor to adiust for the effect of driver population Based on the field survey, the freeway portions of Route 2 exhibit: e Level terrain e Four lanes (Two lanes in each direction) () e A traffic mix approximating: 1% trucks, 1% buses, 4% recreational vehicles during the summer The (v/c) ratio at capacity flow is 1.0 from Table 3-1 of the HCM. The lane width factor, fg. : taken from HCM Table 1-2, = 1, for a facility with 12 ft. lanes, 6 ft. choulder, and a 4 lane facility. The v6hicle mix factor, fgy, is computed in a manner similar to that for the rural road segments. The value obtained is fMV " 5 0.96. The final factor, f is designed to adjust the r arvice flow toaccountfordifferinh,drivercharacteristics. The suggested values (HCM. Table 3-10) range from 0.75 to 1.0 for weekday or commuter traffic. It is expected that during an evacuation, tl.e 4 most experienced person in the group will drive. Further, it is 13sumed that virtually all drivers are familiar with the major
.oads u n the Davis Besse EPZ. Therefore, a factor p = 0.90 was telec*e
-. , asis of these factorc, a freeway capacity VE = 1728
- + - ,ected.* This estimate translates into a mean vehicle yr g , . 1 seconds. ,
1
$p eve : -,nonymous with SF E, as useu in the HCM. I
$ 3-10 Rev. 0
. __ - _ . _ _ _ _ _ . _ __ _ _ _ . _ . - . _ _ _ _ _ . _ . _ - _ _ _ _. . _ _ _ . . _ _ . ~ . _ _
Freeway Ramos capacity of freeway ramps was assumed to be 1170 vphl. This is a conservative estimate (see MCM, Table 5-5), and corresponds to a queue discharge headway of 3.1 seconds per vehicle. Note that the actual capacity for a portion of the traffic stream on link, i, could be less if its movement-specific hsatcongested as discussed earlier. The estimated values of headway, capacity dur hm >ing conditions are reduced below their respective VE valuas by the R = 0.85 factor as discussed earlier. Comparison of Michway Capacity Estimat33 A comparison between capacity estimates produced by the Ohio Department of Transportation (ODOT) and the application of the techniques discussed here is presented in Table 3-1. Roadway segments identified in Table 3-1 are presented in Figure 3-7. Since the roadway segments used by ODOT generally comprise a number of "links" used in the present analysis, KLD capacities shown represent the minimum (limiting) capacity of those links
~
comprising the ODOT segment. KLD values shown include the previously mentioned 85 percent factor indicating roadway operations under congested evacuation conditions. Table 3-2 presents a summary of roadway capacity estimates
- / for links in the Davis Bcssa EPZ. Capacity estimates and service volumen under congested evacuation conditions are presented. Also included are capacity estimates for br.th summer (rain) and winter ,
(snow) adverse weather conditions. s l
}
9 3-11 Rev. 0 '. .w, - ,.-----c,. -n --.n- ..n-.-- - , - . ,,-,_-..---,--~,-m--..----...,
.-,-,,,.--,-,-,-m ve., .,-_n-_w.,r..n.,-,-w, , , , ,
o ( Q) Table 3-1: Comparison of Ohio Department of Transportation Capacities with KLD Capacity Estimates ODOT KLD Roadway Number of Vehicular Vehicular Eecments Lanes Cacacity Cacacity 1 2 900 1020 2 2 900 914 3 4 3250 2914 4 2 700 1020 5 2 700 640 6 2 700 7Fa 7 2 700 1020 8 2 900 1020 ' 9 2 700 560 10 2 700 672 11 2 900 1020 12 2 900 987 1.~3 2 700 1020 ~ 11 2 700 NA 15 2 700 987 Notes (1) ODOT values were obtained from the Ohio Department of Transportation (2) KLD values are the minimum estimate of vehicular throughput under congested conditions for the links which compr.ise the roadway segment. Capacity estimates also include 'he effects of any special traffic control tactics applied. (3) Roadway segments are presented in Figure 3-2. O . 3-12 Rev. 0
o o o l PRIMARY EVACUATION ROUTES 15 STATE HIGHMY F l l l COUNTYHIGHMY
> !r N EVACUATION ROUTE
- T j SEGMENTS
- 1 j l 2
! JERUSALEM
----7 r 1_____________
- LAKEERIE s % / p
! w 8 l 8 i a 8 51 8
- - 8 ALLEi 8
- w 8 I
Ll3 gg ' i cw c.aen BENTON 3
, 14 i
& - - - - - - - -I ! 6 --
I 1 i
}
CLAY ! 5 8 10 F---- -- NROR l
--------J ERIE 4 f ewscan -I 2s ..-
.O ,e * **F N p 8 '
b ll s
'8 ' ~'
! lN y , --
-------- ' HARRIS ah 1 53 ,
PORTAGE r _ _ - .s i BAY - 7 SALEM l i = l - ; $ O I 2
< L____. _____t___--
a
. .__ _______ -.______-L.
I 1 l Figure 3-2. ODOT Roadway Segments
O O J Table 3-2. Roadway Capacity Estimates GOCO HEATHER ADVER%E - RAIM ADVERSE - SNOW LINK ROADWAY C0hGESTEC ROADWAY CONGE3TE D ROADWAY CONGESTED LINR ICENTIFICAT10N LANES CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY I ( 2. 33 RTE 2 1 1200 1020 960 816 000 765 ] t 2. 43 TOUSSAINT SUU7H 1 12C0 1020 960 816 900 765
, t 2 633 RTE 2 1 1200 .1020 960 816 900 765 i
t 3. 45 TOUSSAINT EAST 1 1200 1920 900 816 900 765 t 3. 95 ATE 2 1 1200 1020 960 816 900 765 4 4 All TOUSSAINT SOUTH 1 1200 1020 960 816 900 765 t 4 863 TOUSSAINT EAST I 1200 1020 960 816 900 765 4 4 7. 638 RTE 2 1 1200 1020 960 816 900 765 t 7. 88 RTE 2 AT HUMPHREY I 914 914 731 731 686 686 i ( 8, 133 RTE 2 1 1200 1020 960 816 900 765 E 9 103 RTE 2 (ERIE PARR3 1 1440 1224 1152 979 1080 918 8 9 928 CARROLL ERIE RD 1 120C 1020 960 816 900 765 ' t 10. ISS RTE 2 1 1200 1020 960 816 900 765 i 11, 233 TOUS5AINT SOUTH (SALEMll 804 804 643 643 604 604 8 11. 873 CAR 40LL RD - 5ALEM 1 1200 1020 960 816 900 765 E 12. 253 RTE 19 1 1200 1020 960 816 900 765 8 12. 27) TOUSSAINT EAST 1 1200 1020 960 816 900' 765 i E 13, 913 RTE 19 1 1200 1020 960 816 900 765 t 13. 143 RTE 2 1 1200 1020 960 816 900 765 ( 14 283 RTE 2 1 1200 1020 960 81e 900 765 I 14. 968 EENTON CARROLL A0 1 1200 1020 960 816 900 765 i 19, 358 LAKE THORE RD 1200 1020 g 1 960 816 900 765 I i 19, 363 RTE 2 1200 1020 816 t 1 960 900 765 P t 20. 213 RTE 163 LACARNE 1 1200 1020 960 816 900 765 1 h t 21 223 RTE 163 LACARNE 1 1200 1020 960 816 900 765 1 22 23: RTE 163 1 1200 1020 960 F16 900 765 t 23. 24) RTE 163 OAK HARBOR 1 672 672 530 533 504 504 I 24. 463 RTE 19 OAK H*RBOR 1 1200 1020 960 816 900 765 8 24. 75) RTE 163 OAK HARBOR 1 768 768 614 614 ?76 576 ( 25. 243 RTE 19 OAR HARBOR 1 768 768 614 614 576 576 4 25, 263 SALEM CARSOLL R0 1 804 804 643 643 604 604 4 26 503 SENTON CARROLL RO 1 1200 1020 960 816 900 765 t 27. 263 8ENTON C AR AC1L RD 1 120C 1G20 960 816 900 765 ( 28. 573 RTE 2 1 1200 1020 960 816 900 765 d a 28. 763 RTE 590 1 1200 1020 960 816 900 765 t 29 303 EAST PERRY ST W/8 1 1056 1056 845 845 792 792 ( 29 898 EAST PERRY ST 2 2400 2040 1920 1632 1800 1530 i i 30. 293 EAST PERRY ST E/8 1 768 768 614 614 576 576 ( 30, 323 FREMONT R0 (P.C.3 1 880 880 704 704 660 Soo ) t 32, 643 STATE ST 1 672 672 538 538 504 504 l t 32 773 FREM01T RD 1 120C 1020 960 816 900 765 i f 33. 34) RTE 163 1 1200 1020 960 Sie 900 7t.5 4 30 U 4 36 813 RTE 2 LIMITED ACCESS 2 3423 2914 2742 2331 2571 2185 ! 8 37, 203 RTE 163 1 1200 1020 960 816 *
- 4 900 765.
4 37 363 RAMP TO RTE 2 (1633 1 1163 987 929 790 871 740 i l o 1 4
/
k \ Table 3-2. Roadway Capacity Estimates (contintled) GOOD WEATHER ACVERSE - RAIN ADVER5L - SNOW LINK ROA0WAY C0hGESTED ROA0WAY CONGESTEC ROADWAY CONGESTED LINE I CE NT IF IC AT I ON LANES CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY E 38. Sol RTE 2 LIMITED ACCESS 2 3428 2114 2742 2331 2571 2185 t 39, 383 RAMP TO ATE 2 4533 1161 987 929 790 871 740 t 39, 403 RTE 53 1 1200 1020 960 e16 900 765 8 40e 418 RTE 53 1 1200 1020 960 816 900 765 t 41, 43) RTE 53 1 1200 1020 960 816 900 765 E 43, 663 RTE 53 1 1200 1020 960 816 900 765 4 46, 243 RTC 19 N/8 1 768 768 614 614 576 576 8 46, 471 ATE 19 5/8 1 1200 1020 960 816 900 765 ( 47, 678 ATE 19 5/8 1 1200 1020 960 816 900 765 t 48, 693 RTE 105 W/8 1 560 560 448 448 420 420 i t 48, 75) RTE 105 E/8 1 768 768 614 614 576 576 6 50, *83 EENTON CARROLL 5/8 1 1200 1020 960 816 900 765 i ( 50, 533 RTE 163 W/8 1 1200 1020 960 816 900 765 4 50, 753 RTE 263 E/8 (OAK HRB.3 1 672 672 538 538 504 504 4 52, 543 RTE 590 5/8 ER0CKY R.) 1 1200 1020 960 816 900 765 8 53, 543 RT(- 163 W/8 (RUCKY R.3 1 804 804 643 643 604 604 a 54, 699 RTE $90 5/8 (ROCKY R.) 1 640 640 512 512 480 480 t 54, 713 RTE 163 W/B 12GCRV R.) 1 1200 102C 960 816 900 765 i ( 56a Ill GRAYTOWN RO 5/3 1 1200 1020 960 816 900 765 1 1 57, 563 GRAYTOWN RD S/8 1 1200 1920 960 816 900 765 1 8 57, 588 RTE 579 W/8 y 1 1200 1020 960 816 WO 765 i e t 57, 743 RTE 2 N/B , 1 1200 1020 960 816 900 765 l H E 58, 701 RTE 579 W/B 1 1200 1020 960 816 90c 765 W t 60, 593 RTE 2 LIMITED ACCESS 2 3428 2742 l 2914 2331 2571 2185
, t 61, 603 RAMP TO RTE 2 (P.C.) 1 1161 987 929 790 871 740 ! t 63, 23 RTE 2 L/8 1 1200 1020 960 816 900 765
( 63, 7) ATC 2 N/8 1 1200 1020 960 816 900 765 t 64, 299 FULTCN ST (P. Col 1 A72 672 538 538 504 504 l E s4, 325 FoutTH $7 (P.C.) 1 320 320 256 256 240 240
. E 69, 683 MTE 590 5/8 1 1200 1020 960 816 900 765 i t 71, 723 RTE 163 W/8 1 1200 1020 960 816 900 765
, t 72, 88) RTE 163 W/8 1 1200 1020 960 814 900 765 j ( 74, 843 RTE 2 3DNO 1 1200 1020 960 816 900 765 ( F5, 243 RTE 163 OAK HARBOR 1 672 672 538 538 504 504 6 75, 485 RTE 105 OAK HA9502 1 804 804 643 643 604 604 - i i 75, 503 RTE 16? OAK HAMBOR 1 304 804 643 643 604 604 6 76, 52) RTE 590 5/8 1 1200 1020 960 816 900 765 4 4 77, 393 FREMOMT R0 1 120C 1020 960 816 900 765 6 77, 323 FR EM ON T RO EP.C.) 1 880 880 704 704 660 660 t 79. 273 SENTON CARROLL RD 5/8 1 1200 1020 960 816 900 765 ? [ t 80, 60) ATE 2 LIMITED ACCESS I 81, 383 RTE 2 LIMITED ACCESS 2 3428 2914 2742 2331 2571 2385
<: 2 3428 2914 2742 2331 2571 2181 I 81, 393 RTE 2 0FFRAPP 1 1861 957 929 790 871 744
( 8 , 3 R 1 1 1200 1020 960 814 900 765 j o i 85,110) H3WARO a 0 80NO 1 1700 1020 960 816 900 765 6 86, 12) TOUS5AINT EAST 1 560 560 448 448 420 420 9
O < O Table 3-2. Roadway Capacity Esti: nates (concluded) G000 WEATHER ADVERSE - RAIM ADVERSE - 540W LINK ROADhAY CONGESTED aOADWAY COfeGE ST E D RO A0ef aY C O8eGE'. Y E D j L l ast IDENTIFICATION LANES CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY , 4 89 44) EAST PERRY ST (P.C.I 2 24 00 2040 1920 1632 1800 1530
! t 90 1118 COaCUROY RD 80h3 1 1161 987 929 790 871 740 l 4 91. 128 RTE 19 5/8 1 640 640 512 512 480 480
( 92. All SALEn CARRCEL RD 1 *200 1020 960 816 900 765 4 94. 62) EAST PERRY ST (P.C.B 2 2400 2040 1920 1632 1800 1930 8 96, 79) SEIITON CARROLL 5/8 1 1200 1020 960 Sie 900 765 8 95, 645 Ptm.T000 ST EP.C.) 1 640 640 512 512 480 480 ? I 99, 14) CR Af0f CREEK ACCESS 1 1200 1020 960 Sie 900 765 I E 100, 33 5 RTE 163 W/8 1 1200 1020 960 816 900 765 (112. 743 80see RD 1 1161 98# 929 790 471 744
)
l l r t Yh Z 8 0W \ m i 4 1 1 i e 1 i .l i As t 4 1 I I A i e' - l t I .
.. (.
o 4. ESTIMATION OF TRIP GENERATION TIME Federal novernment Guidelines (see NUREG 0554, Appendix 4) specify that the planner estimate the distributions of elapsed times associated with activities undertaken by the public in preparation for evacuation. We define the gum of these distributions of elapsed times, to be defined later, as the Trip Generation Time Distribution. Backcround In general, an accident at a nuclear power station attains one or more "classes" of Emergency Action Levels (see Appendix 1 of NUREG 0654 for details):
- 1. Unusual Event
- 2. Alert
- 3. Site Area Emergency
- 4. General Emergency At each level, the Federal Guidelines specify a set of Actions to be undertaken by the Licensee, and by State and Local offsite authorities. If we limit this discussion to the ~
evacuation decision action, then the first off-site public notification and response can occur at the time of the Site Area Emergency. () There is an exception to this rule in the Emergency plan for the Davis Besse Station. It is now centemplated that the public will be notified to clear the parks and lake areas at the Alert Level as a precautionary action. As a planninc Basis, we will adopt a conservative posture, ir accord with Federal Regulations, that a rapidly escalating l accident will be considered in calculating the Trip Generation i Time. We will assumo: l e The accident escalates almost immediately to a Site Area l Emergency.
& That further escalation to a General Emergency occurs 15 minutes later.
e That the order to evacuate is transmitted to the public 10 minutes after the General Emergency is declared. We emphasize that tha adoption of this planning basis is Dol a representation that these events can o: cur at the Davis Besse Staaion within the indicated time frame. Rether, these assumptions are only necessary in order to: l l - ~- Rev. 0 l __ _
e Establish a temporal framework for estimating the Trip O Generation distribution in the format recommended in Appendix 4 of NUREG 0654. e Identify temporal points of reference for the purpose of uniquely defining "Clear Time" and Evacuation Time Estimates (ETE). It is more likely that a longer time will elapse between the various classes of an emergency at Davis Besse. For example, suppose two hours elapse from the declaration of a General Emergency to the Order to Evacuate. In this case, it is reasonable to expect some degree of spontaneous evacuation during this two-hour period. As a result, the population within the EPZ will be lower when the Order to Evacuate is announced, than at the time of the General Emergency. Thus, the time needed to evacuate the EPZ, after the Order to Evacuate will be significantly less than the estimates presented in this report. On the other hand, there is a low probability that an "immediate" General Emergency can arise, with the Order to Evacuate given almost simultaneously. In this case, the evacuation time estimates (ETE) will be somewhat longer than the figures presented herein. The planning basis adopted here approximates the "worst case" conditions, and is within 25 minutes of the most extrome () condition. The notification process consists of two events:
- e Transmittina information (e.g. using sirens, tone alerts, EBS broadcasts, loudspeakers).
l e Receivina and correctly intercrotina the information that is transmitted. i The peak population within the EPZ exceeds '0,000 persons who I are deployed over an area of approximately 300 square miles (including Lake Erie), and engaged in a wide variety of l activities. It must be anticipated that some ti.me will elapse l between the transmission and receipt of the information advising the public of an accident. The amount of elapsed time will vary from one individual to the next depending where that person is, what that person is doing, and related factors. Furthermore, persens who will be directly involved with the evacuation process may be outside the l EPZ at the time that the emergency is declared. These people may be commuters, shoppers and other travelers who reside within the EPZ and who will return to join the other members in the household upon receiving notifiestion of an emergency. O 4-2 Rev. 0
<w As indicated in NUREG 0654, the estimated elapsed times for
( the receipt of notification can be expressed as a distribution reflecting the different notification times for different people within, and outside, the EPZ. By using time distributions, it is also possible to distinguish between different population groups and different day-of-week and time-of-day scenarios, so that more accurate assessments may be obtained. For example, people at parks will be alerted with loudspeakers; there will be little time lost between transmission and receipt of information. Other persons, located inland within the EPZ will be notified by siren and radio. Those well outside the EPZ will be notified by telephone, radio, TV and word-of-mouth, with potentially longer time lags. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of the EPZ population will differ with time of day -- families will be united in the evenings and at night, but dispersed during the day. In this respect, weekends will differ from weekdays. Fundamental Considerations The environment leading up to the time that people begin their evacuation trips, consists of a sequence of events and activities. Each event (other than the first) occurs at an instant in time and is the outcome of an activity. (} Activities are undertakan over a period of time. Activities may be in "series" (i.e. to undertake an activity implies the l completion of all preceding events) or may be in parallel (two or
- more activities may take place over the same period of time).
l Activities conducted in series are functionally deoendent on l the completion of prior activities; activities conducted in parallel are functionally indeoendent of one-another. The I relevant events associated with the public's preparation for evacuation are: Event Number Eyent Description 1 No-accident condition 2 Awareness of accident situation ! 3 Depart place of work 4 Arrive home 5 Leave home to evacuate the area l Associated with each sequence of events are one or more activities, as outlined below: Event Secuence Activity 1 --> 2 Public receives notification information i 2 --> 3 Prepare to leave work I 2,3 --> 4 Tra"el home c)s ( 2,4 --> 5 Prepare to leave for evacuation trip l t 4-3 Rev. 0 1
f-~s These relationships may be depicted graphically as shown in i ( ,) Figure 4-1. Note that event 5, "Leave to evacuate the arsa" is conditional either on event 2 2r event 4. That is, activities 2
--> 5 can be undertaken in parallel with activities 2 --> 3, 3
--> 4 and 4 --> 5, as shown in Figure 4-1 (a) and (c).
Specifically, it is possible that one adult member of a household can prepare to leave home (i.e. secure the home, pack clothing, etc.), while others are travelling home from work. In this instance, the household members would be able to evacuate sooner than if such preparation had to be deferred until all household members had returned home. However, we will adopt the conservative posture that all activities will occur in sequence. It is seen from Figure 4-1, that the Trip Generation time (i.e. tne total elapsed time from Event 1 to Event 5) depends on the scenario and will vary from one household to the next. Furthermore, Event 5 depends, in e complicated way, on the time distributions of all activities leading to that event. Specifically, in order to estimate the time distribution of Event 5, we must somehow obtain estimates of the time distributions of all preceding events. - Estimated Time Distributions of Activities Precedina Event 5 The time distribution of an event is obtained by "summing"
/ the time distributions of all prior, contributing activities.
(This "summing" process is quite different than an algebraic sum since we are operating on distributions -- not numbers). Time distribution of the Notification Process: Activity 1 --> 2) We know of no survey which has accumulated empirical j information describing the rate at which notification information
- is received. Nevertheless, there is sufficient data to obtain a l reasonable estimate of a notification time frame, based largely
! on the information obtained from the telephone survey. (see Appendices F and G). The following information is relevant: Percentage of commuters working within the EPZ: 63% i Average Household (HH) Size: 2.86 l Avg. Number of Commuters per HH; 1.12 Percentage of Residents who will be within the EPZ if accident occurs at mid-week, mid-day: 0.63 (1.12) + (2.86-1.12) x 100 = 85.5 l 2.86 !v h 1 l 4-4 Rev. O I l ___
I o O 1 2 3 4 5 e--*a,'-- ' Inland and Residents
~ ~ _ _
1 2 5 Park area vacationers and lake boaters e =e ze (a) Accident occurs during mid-week, at mid-day; summer season 1 2 5 e =e :e Inland and Residents 1 2 5 e ze ze Park area vacationers and lake boaters (b) Accident occurs during week-end, at mid-day; summer season 1 2 3 4 5
~
'l _
,s (c) Accident occurs during mid-week, at mid-day; non-summer ceason 1 2 5 (d) Accident oc:urs in the evening, non-summer se:. son l
1 2 3 e we :: (e) Employees who live outside of the EPZ _____________________% Time Increasing e Event
& Activity Figure 4-1. Events and Activities Preceding the Evacuation O (see text for definition) 4-5 Rev, 0
_ _ _ _ _ _ . . _ _ _____ _ _ _____ _ __.-___.__. _.-_ _, ..________.-,,m
The population within the EPZ includes 85.5 percent of all (, s) residents, as computed above, and 100 percent of all tourists and employees, by definition. It is reasonable to expect that 80 percent of those within the EPZ will be aware of the accident within 15 minutes with the remainder notified within the following 15 minutes. The commuters outside the EPZ will be notified somewhat later, say uniformly between 10 and 40 minutes. Park area population will be notified within 15 minutes. The resulting distributions for this notification activity are given below. Persons boating on Lake Erie will be notified of an accident by the Coast Guard. This notification will take the form of a radio alert, and the dispatch of Coast Guard helicopters and vessels. Since Coast Guard stations are located some dintance from the EPZ (Toledo, Catawba) it is anticipated that about 1/2 hour would elapse before significant numbers of boats are notified. It is conservatively assumed that most boats do not have radios, or the radios are not tuned to the emergency frequencies. The lake notification distribution is shown as distribution 1C. Distribution No. 1. Notification Time: Activity 1 --> 2 General Poculation: Distribution lA Elapsed Cum. Pct. Time (min.) Notified 5 15 10 46 15 79 20 85 25 90 30 95 35 98 40 100 l Persons at the Park: Distribution 1B l Elapsed Cum. Pct. ! Time (min.) Notified 1 5 20 10 60 15 100 0 4-6 Rev. 0
Persons on Lake Erie: Distribution 1C U Elapsed Cum. Pct. Time (min.) Notified 5 0 10 0 15 0 20 0 25 0 30 20 35 60 40 100 It is reasonable to expect that the vast majority of business enterprises within the EPZ will elect to shut down following notification. Most employees would take action to leave work quickly. Commuters who work outside the EPZ could, in all probability, also leave quickly since facilitias outside the EPZ would remain open and other personnel would remain. Personnel responsible for equipment would require additional time to secure the facility. The distribution of Activity 2 --> 3 reflects data obtained by the telephona survey. This distribution is plotted in Figure 4-2 and listed below ss Distribution 2. Distribution No. 2. Time to Precare to Leave Wor]si p Activity 2 --> 1 Elapsed Cum. Pct. Time (min.) Leavine Work 5 61 10 75 15 85 20 87 25 89 30 96 , 35 97 40 97 45 99 50 99 , 55 99 60 99 65 99 70 99 75 99 80 99 85 99 90 99 95 09 100 99 105 9.. 110 100 4-7 Rav. 0
i O O O
! x Notification _ a Leave Work -g Travel Home I-_ Prepare Home 100 -
- " ." .r - . . .M
. . . .r . ." : : : " "
.r"...": II:" -: : : : ::
- : 1 . . ._
i B0 - l f I i o j 8 i 60 - C t 9 I .
- I /
i E '/ l = 2 40 -'
,n 20 -
i' f j, t I t I I t I I I I e i 4 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 . m j
- Elapsed T)me from Order to Evacuate (Minutes)
~
I o l l 1 Figure 4-2. Trip Generation Time Distrioutions for the General Population
NOTE: O The survey data was normalized to distribute the "Don't know" response Distribution No. 3. Time to Travel _Home: Activity 3 --> 4 This data is provided directly by the telephone survey. This distribution is plotted in Figure 4-2 and listed below: Elapsed Cum. Pct. Time (min.) Returnina Home 5 21 10 40 15 57 20 72 25 77 30 84 35 86 40 89 45 94 50 96 55 96 60 99
- 65 99 70 99 75 99
,O 80 99
(,)s 85 99 90 99 95 99 100 99 105 100 NOTE: The survey data was normalized to distribute the "Don't knoW" Tesponse Distribution No. 4. Time to Pracare to Leave Home: Activity 2.4 --> 5 This data is provided directly by the telephone survey. This distribution is plotted in Figure 4-2 and listed below: ! Distribution 4A Residents l l Elapsed Time (min) Cum. Pct. Ready to Evacuate '. 5 10 , , 10 20 , i 15 30 ; I 20 39 ! 25 48 j 30 57 35 61
- 40 65
, 45 70 ; 1 4-9 Rev. 0
e clanned Time / min) Cum. Pet. Readv to Evacuate 50 74 55 78 60 84 65 86 70 56 75 90 80 90 85 91 90 91 95 91 100 91 105 91 110- 92 115 92 120 92 125 94 130 96 135 97 140 98 145 99 150 99 155 99 - 160 99 165 99 170 99 175 99 ] 180 100
- NOTE
- The original data was obtained in 15-minute i
increments. The above figures were calculated by interpolation and normalized as beforv. i
- Di stribut ion ..;D Tourists at Parks or ShoeniDS l
- Distribution 45 describen the estimated preparation time to
- leave the park area. While we have no empirical data to support-l this distribution, we do know the physical domain of the park area and the activities involv9d. After notification, people at t
Crane Creek park beach or out walking would merely gather their belongings and walk to their respective cars. Since we know that congestion will occur on the park access roads during the summer and that evacuation time will exceed Trip Generation time, any inaccuracies in the distribution will not influence the ETE. Thus, an approximate, reasonable distribution will satisfy our needs. Visitors to the park are day-trippers, about 50 percent of
-these people should be able to access their respective cars within 30 minutes of the receipt of the notification information and be ready to depart. The balance, those hiking or away from O beach areas, might require up to one additional hour before they are ready to depart.
I 4-10 l Rev. 0 l I- - . _ _ _ . - _ , _ _
)
U Tne resulting distribution follows: Elansed Time (min) Cum. Pct. Ready to Evacuate 5 5 10 10 15 20 ! 20 30 25 40 ; 30 50 , 35 55 40 60 - 45 65 50 70 : 55 75 i 60 80
- 65 85 r 70 90 ;
75 92 80 95 85 98 90 100 - i i Dietribution 4C Boaters on Lake Erie l l A Distribution 4c describes the time required to return a boat } i V i to a marina and load it on k trailer. This distribution was obtained from the telephone survey. The data were normalized to ; j - distribute the "Don't Know" responses. Although the distribution ; j' was developed for boats launched from boat trailers, it is p ! applied also to those boats which return to boat slips. ; i Inaccuracies in the distribution of beater response times i f will not affect the ETE since we can expect traffic congestion developing on the marina access roads. As was the case for Distribution 4B, a reasone.ble distribution will satisfy our needs. , Elansed Time (min) Cum. Pct. Ready to Evacuate ; 5 8 I 10 16 15 32 20 48 25 53 30 66 !- , 35 69 ! l 40 72 ; 45 75 50 77 f 55 78 r 60 79 [ 65 S1 [ 4-11 Rev. O r
, - .,n, _-a,e, ,- w.. _ .-.--,_.,,.- ,,,,,,n,. _ m:,--,,,--,- a,-,,,-,,, a. , , - ,,,,,-nn... --,.n--.,,
Elaesed Time (min) Cum. Pct. Readv t'o Evacuate -j 70 83 75 85 80 87 85 89 90 90 95 90 100 91 105 92 110 93 115 94 120 95 125 95 130 95 135 96 140 96 145 96 150 97 155 97 160 98 165 98 170 99 ~ 175 99 180 100 Calculation of Trio Generation Time Distribution The time distributions for each of the preliminary activities presented herein must be combined to form the appropriate Trip Generation Distribution. This combination of distributions is accomplished through the use of two computational techniques which are described in detail in Appendix M. Events can combine in two forms, serially or in parallel. A serial combination of events (see Algorithm 1, Appendix M) requires that Event k be completed before Event Ktl may begin. For example, before the home can be prepared for departure, a family must have completed the trip home. A parallel combination of events (see Algorithm 2, Appendix M) implies that Event k may occue during the same period of time as Event k+1. For example, as one member of the family prepares the home for departure, anotner member of the family could be clearing the driveway of snow. The algorithms presented in Appendix M are applied repeatedly as shown to form the required distributions: in order to which is Apolv Alcorithm No. 1 to Obtain Dist. for named Distribution Distributions lA and 2 Event No. 3 A Distributions A and 3 Event No. 4 B O Distributions B and 4 Event No. 5 C 4-12 Rev. O
in order to which is O Accly Alaorithm No. 1 to Obtain Dist. for named Distribution Distributions 1B and 4B Event No. 5 D Distributions 1C and 4C Event No. 5 E Distributions A-E are described below: Distribution Exclanation A Time distribution of commuters leaving work. Also applies to employees who work within the EPZ who live outside the EPZ. B Time distribution of commuters arriving home. C Time distribution of residents with commuters leaving home to begin the evacuation trip. D Time distribution of tourists and park attendees leaving the area to begin the evacuation trip. E Time districution of boaters on the lake leaving the area to begin the evacuation trip. O Trio Generation Distributions for Peak Season Scenarios For thace scenarios it is assumed that the notification process for the park and lake populace begins at the Alert level, while that for the rest of the EPZ begins 15 minutes later at the General Emergency level. The sirens will not be activated, in general, until the l General Emergency level is reached. This level is assumed to be reached 15 minutes after the Site Area Emergency level. We hiso l postulate that the evacuatien order is given 10 minutes after the i General Emergency is declared. Thus, for the "planning-basis" accident scenario, we postulate two evacuation stages (park, lake and inland) which are displaced in tima with respect to one-another: l l
- 1. The Trip Generation time distribution for the park areas and the lake has its origin point (i.e. time, zero) at the time of the announcement of the site Area Emergency (assumed to be concurrent with the Alert level).
- 2. The Trip Generation time distribution for the remainder of the EPZ has its origin point (i.e. time zero) at the time of the issuance of the order to evacuate, which is !
g assumed to take place 10 minutes after the General l j Emergency is declared, or 25 minutes after the Site Alert i and Site Area Emergency. 4-13 Rev. O
i 7-s ( ,/ Figure 4-3 presents the combined trip generation distributions previously designated A,C,D, and E. These distributions are presented on the same time scale. Note that when the order to evacuate is given to the general population, 10 percent of the vehicles at the parks have begun their trips out of the EPZ. Note also that the first boaters to begin leaving the area do so at about 20 minutes after the order to evacuate is given to the general population. Although boaters are notified earlier, their longer response time means few, if any, of them begin their trips out of the EPZ before the general population. The I-DYNEV model is designed to accept varying rates of trip generation for each origin centroid, expressed in the form of histograms. We partition these centroids into three sets -- those for beach area traffic, for inland residents and inland employees. These histograms, which represent Distributions A, D and E, properly displaced with respect to one another, are tabulated in Table 4-1. These tabulations present the trips generated and the rates of trip-making within each indicated time period, both expressed as a percentage of the total number of trips to be generated at each centroid. The rate of trip making is found by: a Rate = Trios aenerated in Time Period (cercent) Duration of Time Period (hours) Snow Clearance Time Distribution Inclement weather scenarios involving snowfall must address the time lags associated with snow clearance. Discussions with local officials indicate that snow plowing equipment is mobilized and deployed during the snowfall to maintain passable roads. The general consensus is that their efforts are generally successful for all but the most extreme blizzards when the rate of snow accumulation exceeds tnat of snow clearance over a period of many hours. Consequently, it is reasonable to assume that the highway system will remain passable -- albeit at a lower capacity -- under the vast majority of snow conditions. Nevertheless, for the vehicles to gain access to the highway system, it is necessary for driveways and employee parking lots to be cleared to the extent needed. These clearance activities take time, and this time lag must be incorporated into the trip generation time distributions. Thus, we must postulate a separate distribution rN for the driveway snow clearance activity and then introduce this distribution into the procedure used to calculate the trip () generation time distribution. 4-14 Rev. O
O O O i , x Park Pop. o _ Boating Pop. # __. General Pop. I._ Employee Pop. 100 -
':::xxx:xxx:xxx:xxx-"""-" -:::::=
80 - 4 i i 60 - e 4h 43 -
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- E 40 -
1 I i I j 20 -
=
i I A ] _ar_m.n_m_ .-;w t t e I t i t t i e i m -20 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 o 200 220 240 f Elapsed Time from Order to Evacuate (Ninutes) a O t 1 i Figure 4-3. Comparison of Trip Generation Distributions i ,
I Table 4-1. Trip Generation Time Histograms for the Midweek and Weekend Scenarios Time Period Percent of Total Trips and Rates which are Relative to Generated During the Indicated Time Periods Time of Order to Evacuate (Dist. C) (Dist. A) (Dist. D) (Dist E) (Hrs.: Min.) General Popul. Employees Parks Boaters Trips Rate Trips Rate Trips Rate Trips Rate
-0:25 to -0:00 1 2 0 0 10 24 1 2 0:00 to 0:15 1 4 30 120 28 112 1 4 0:15 to 0:30 2 4 46 184 21 84 27 108 0:30 to 0:45 13 52 18 72 15 60 32 128 0:45 to 1 00 18 72 4 16 14 56 13 52 1:00 to 1:15 17 68 2 8 9 36 5 20 i
1:15 to 1:30 16 64 0 0 3 12 6 24 1:30 to 2:00 17 34 0 0 0 0 13 26 2:00 to 3:00 15 15 0 0 0 0 2- 2 3:00 + 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Units: Trips, percent of total trips which are generated at the origin centroids during indicated Time l Period i Rate, percent of total trips per hour during indicated Time Period Note: Time zero for Distributions D and E occurs 25 minutes prior to the order te evacuate, i .e. at the Site Emergency level. t I 1 4-16 l l Rev. O !
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The time needed to clear a driveway depends on the depth of (,) snow, the available equipment and the number of able-bodied personnel to perform the task. Since this area is accustomed to heavy recurring snowfalls, it is reasonable to expect that virtually all households have made provision for snow clearance by either owning some form of equipment or by contracting for such service to be performed by others. The following distribution is postulated based on discussions with people in the area, for a heavy snowfall. Elapsed Time Cum. percent of (min.) Cleared Driveways 15 5 30 - 10 45 25 60 40 90 70 120 90 150 100 It is recognized that the snow clearing activity can take place in parallel with other activities, e.g. preparing for - evacuaticn. Nevertheless, we will adopt the conservative point of view that this activity follows the preparation activity, rather than proceeding in parallel with it. This posture will
,/ lengthen the temporal extent of the trip generation process.
The above distribution will be identifi6d as Distribution 5. Tha event "Driveways cleared of snow" will be identified as Event No. 5 and the event "Leave to Evacuate" is Event No. 6 for scenarios involving snow conditions. We must then perform the following additional operations to l compute the trip generation distributions for the inclement weather, snow scenarios: I in order to which is l Acolv Alcorithm No. 1 to Obtain Dist. for named Distribution Distributions A and 5 Event No. 6 F Distributions C and 5 Event No. 6 G The results of these calculations are shown in Table 4-2 in a format consistent with the others. Note: e Distribution F applies to employees e Distribution G applies to residents during mid-day. l 4-17 l Rev. O
( Table 4-2. Trip Generation Time Histograms for the Inclement Weather, Snow, Scenarios (Distributions F, G) Time Period Relative Percent of Trips and Rates which are to Time of Order Generated During the Indicated to Evacuate Time Periods (Hrs.: Min.) Employees Residents Trips Rate Trips Rate 0:00 to 0:30 13 26 1 2 0:30 to 1:00 46 92 1 2 1:00 to 1:30 24 48 6 12 1:30 to 2:00 6 12 17 34 2:00 to 3:00 11 11 44 44 3:00 to 4:00 0 0 22 22 i 4:00 to 4:30 0 0 9 9 4:30 + 0 0 0 0 Units: Trips, percent of total trips at centroid Rate, percent of total trips per hour Note: Time zero for these Distributions occurs at the start of the General Emergency. I l l l [ O l 4-18 [ Rev. O j _ _ - _ _ _ _ _ . . _ _ - ~ _ _ _ _ - _ - . _ - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ . . , _ _ _ _ . . . . . _ _ _ _ , - _ . _ _ _ _ . _ _ _ _ _ _ , _ - - . . -
Evenina Evacuation Scenarios During evening hours the general population may be assumed to be gathered in household groupings. Thus, the times associated with leaving places of employment and traveling home need not be censidered. Following notification, the only pre-evacuation activity is the preparation to leave home. Table 4-3 presents the trip generation distributions for evening scenarios. Note that, for evening scenarios, all trips have been generated over a two-hour period as compared with a three hour period for midday scenarios. O l l I l l l 4-19 Rev. 0 , g
() Table 4-3. Trip Generation Time Histograms for Evening Scenarios Time Period Relative Percent of Trips and Rates which are to Time of order Generated During the Indicated to Evacuate Time Periods (Hrs.: Min.) Trips Rate 0:00 to 0:15 6 24 0:15 to 0:45 4 'r 98 0:45 to 1:15 26 56 1:15 to 2:00 17 23 2:00 + 0 0 9 O , i ( I i t' s O inb* Rev. O
- 5. DEMAND ESTIMATION FOR EVACUATION SCENARIOS An evacuation case may be defined as a combination of the reglen to be evacuated and the scenario under consideration. The definition of region and scenario is as follows:
Region - A grouping of evacuation subareas which are designed to satisfy the need to evacuate specific subsets of the EPZ due to such factors as wind direction, and accident severity.
- Scenario - A combination of time of day, season and weather conditions. Scenarios define the members of and response time for various population groups.
' A total of 10 regions were defined which encompass all of the potential groupings of subareas to be considered. These regions are shown in Table 5-1. Subareas are shown in Figure 2-1. A total of 11 scenarios were evaluated for all regions (110 cases). The following is a description of all scenarios: Scenario 1 - Summer, Midday, Midweek, Good Weather - This is a peak season scenario. Both general and seasonal population groups are present. Employment is at high levels (work to home trips are significant). Scenario 2 - Summer < .11dday, Midweck, Rain The same population conditions exist as in Scenario 1. , l Sudden rain showers are hypothesized which reduce roadway
- capacity and speeds by 20 percent. e scenario 3 - Summer, Midday, Midweek, Rain / Flooding This scenario envisions low lying areas in the EPZ being l flooded as a result of the combination of a sustained northeast storm and high lake water levels. Discussions with both Lucas and Ottawa County Engineers indicate that, although conditions for this type of flooding are most prevalent in the spring, the current (Summer 1986) high water levels in the lake make such flooding scenarios a possibility during the peak, summer season.
- Consequently, it was decided to utilize a summer pcpulation scenario. However, since a sustained northeast storm is required to cause flooding, we would expect few, if any, transient and
, beaters as part of the evacuating public. Table 5-2 presents a i list of roadway section susceptabla to flooding due to the cited , storm conditions, i
\
5-1 sn . Rev. 1 ] i
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() Table 5-1. Definition of Evacuation Regions
^
Subareas to be evacuated Comment 0-2 Miles 1,10,12 Crane Creek Park & Wildlife Refuge and beaters on the Lake are alerted for all scenarios. 0-5 Miles 1,2,10',17 Any winds from the north to the southeast 1,6,10,12 Northwest winds 1,2,6,10,12 Entire 5-Mila region 0-10 Miles 1,6,7,8,9 Northwest winds . 10,12 . 1,2,5,6,7, North winds 8,9,10,12 1,2,3,4,5 Northeast winds ' 10,11,12 1,2,3,10,11,12 East winds 1,10,11,12 Southeast winds 1 - 12 Entire 30-Mile region 4 r i i I i ; i O i Y 5-2 Rev.I
() Table 5-2. Areas affected by Flooding during a Northeast Storm Ottawa County e Port Clinton - Perry St. is flooded e Route 53 (Fremont Road) - Flooded in the area of Muddy Creek e Route 2, flooded in the area of Camp Perry Rd. and Lakeshore Drive e Route 2, flooded crossing the Toussaint River o Route 2, flooded at the intersection with Route 19. Lucas County e Route 2, flooding at Teachout Rd. Route 2 might be passable with up to 6 inches of water. O Source: Discussions with ottawa, Lucas County Engineers l [ l \ \ 5-3 l Rev. 1 L_
_ Scenario 4 - Summer, Midday, Weekend, Good Weather s/ This scenario is the peak population situation. It represents conditions on a holiday weekend; parks are full, many boaters are on the lake, and many transients are in the Port Clinton area. Scenario 5 - Summer, Midday, Weekend, Rain The same population conditions exist as in Scenario 4. Sudden rain showers occur which reduce highway capacity and speed 20 percent. Scenario 6 - Summer, Evening, Good Weather This scenario ascumes the general and seasonal population are at home; the time required to return home prior to evacuating is not an issue. Few transient, boaters or employees are present. Scanario 7 - Winter, Midday, Midweek, Good Weather This is the base off-peak season scenario. Peak permanent
~
and employment population groups are present. Few, if any, s transients, seasonal, and boaters are present. Scenario 8 - Winter, Midday, Midweek, Rain () The same population conditions as exist in Scenario 7. Sudden rain showers occur which reduce highway capacity and speed 20 percent. Scenario 9 - Winter, Midday, Midweek, Snow The same population conditions as exist in scenario 7. Additional time is required by evacuees to clear driveways before evacuation trips commence. Roadway capacities and speeds are reduced 25 percent. Epenario 10 - Winter, Evening, Good Weather This scenario assumes the general population is at home. There are few seasonal residents, transients or employees in the EPZ. Scenario 11 - Spring, Midday, Midweek, Flood As Scenario 3 with reduced transient and seasonal populations. Each combination of evacuation region and accident scenario implies a specific population to be evacuated. Table 5-3 presents the percentage of each population group assumed to O evacuate with each scenario. Tables 5-4a through 5-4g present the actual population and vehicle counts for each scenario. 5-4 Rev. 1
\
Table 5-3. Percent of Population Groups for Various Scenarios Population Scenario Permanent Seasonal Transient, Emolovinent Boaters Summer Midweek, Midday 100 100 50 100 50 , Flooding 100 100 0 100 0 Weekend, Midday 100 100 100 30 100 , Evening 100 100 5 10 - 0 Winter Midweek, Midday 100 5 5 100 0 Evening 100 5 0 10 0 . Serina 1 Flooding 100 5 0 100 0 , e l l l i l t O 5-5 Rev. 1
- .m .
1 1
-( )' Table 5-4a. Population and Vehicle Estimates for Various combinationa of Regions and Scenarios scenarios: Summer, Midweek, MiddOy Population Group B.eaion Permanent seasonal Transient Emoloyment Boatere Total 1,.10, 12 Pop._ 829 3782 3421 706 2591 11329 Veh. 319 1455 1220 552 1296 4342 1,2,10, Pop. 1706 4021 3457 706 2591 12481 12 Veh. 656 1547 1233 552 1296 5284 1,6,10, Pop. 1329 3782 5922 1306 2591 14930 12 Veh. 511 1455 2113 1021 1296 6396 1,2,6, Pop. 2206 4021 5957 1306 2591 16081 10,12 Veh. 848 1547 2126 1021 1296 6838
, 1,6,7,8, Pop. 11385 8610 13707 2306 4941 40949 9,10,12 Veh. 4379 3312 4894 1802 2471 26858 1,2,5,6, Pop. 12262 8849 13742 2306 4941 42100 7,9,10,12 Veh. 4716 3404 4906 1802 2471 17299 1,2,3,4, Pop. 10958 4267 4290 706 4640 24861 5,10,11, Veh. 4215 1642 1530 552 2320 10259 12 1,2,3,10,' Pop. 5924 4267 4190 706 4560 19647 11,12 Veh. 2279 1642 1435 552 2280 8248 1,10,11, Pop. 1816 4028 4155 706 4560 15265 12 Veh. 699 1550 4482 552 2280 6563 1 - 12 Pop. 21514 9095 14575 2306 6990 54480
- V6h. 8274 3498 5204 1821 3495 22292 l
5-6 Rev. O \.
Table 5-4b. Population and Vehicle Estimates for Various
-(\)
ss/ , Combinations of Regions and Scenarios i , Scenarios: Summer, Midweek, Midday, Flood Population Group Recion Permanent Seasonal Transient Emolovment Boaters Total 1,10,12 Pop. 829 3782 0 706 0 5317 Veh. 319 1455 0 552 0 2326 1,2,10, Pop. 1706 4021 0 706 0 6433 12 Veh. 656 1547 0 552 0 2755 1,6,10, Pop. 1329 3782 0 1306 0 6417 12 Veh. 511 1455 0 1021 0
- 2987 1,2,6, Pop. 2206 4021 0 1306 0 7533 10,12 Veh. 848 1547 0 1021 0 3416
(' 1,6,7,8, Pop. 11385 8610 0 2306 0 22301 9,10,12 Veh. 4379 3312 0 1802 0 9493
- 1,2,5,6, Pop. 12262 8849 0 2306 0 23417 7,8,9,10, Veh. 4716 3404 0 1802 0 9922 12 1,2,3,4, Pop. 10958 4267 0 706 0 15931 5,10,11, Veh. 4215 1642 0 552 0 6409 12 1,2,3,10, Pp. 5924 4267 0 706 0 10897 11,12 Veh. 2279 1642 0 552 0 4473 1,10,11, Pop. 1816 4028 0 706 0 6550 12 Veh. 699 1550 0 552 0 2801 1 - 12 Pop. 21514 9095 0 2306 0 32915 Veh. 8274 3498 0 1821 0 13593 d
- O 5-7 Rev. O
(~') Table 5-40. Population and Vehicle Estimates for Various Combinations of Regions and Scenarios (_/ + Scenarios: Summer, Weekend, Midday, Population Group Reaion Permanent Seasonni Transient Employment Boaters Tota'I 1,10,12 Pop. 829 3782 6843 212 5182 16848 Veh. 319 1455 2440 166 1591 6971 1,2,10, Pop. 1706 4021 6913 212 5182 18034 12 Veh, 656 1547 2465 166 2591 7425 1,6,10, Pop. 1329 3782 11843 392 5182 22528 12 Veh. 511 1455 4226 306 2591 - 9089 1,2,6, Pop. 2206 4021 11913 392 5182 23714 10,12 Veh. 848 1547 4251 306 2591 9543 Pop. 11385 8610 27413 692 9882 57982 (' l 1,6,7,8, 9,10,12 Veh. 4379 3312 9737 541 4941 22960 1,2,5,6, Pop. 12262 8849 27483 692 9882 f9168 7,8,9,10, Veh. 4716 3404 9812 541 4941 23414 12 1,2,3,4, Pop. 10958 4267 8580 212 9280 33297 5,10,11, Veh. 4215 1642 3060 166 4640 13723 12 1,2,3,10, Pop. 5924 4267 8380 212 9120 27903 11,12 Veh. 2279 1642 2989 166 4560 11636 i 1,10,11, Pop. 1816 4028 8310 212 9120 23486 12 Veh. 699 1550 2964 166 4560 9939 1 - 12 Pop. 21514 9095 29150 692 13980 74431 Veh. 8274 3498 10407 546 6990 29715 O
'i - 8 Rev. O t __
., .. . . . . .. . . ~ . -
, ' Table 5-4d. Population and Vehicle Estimates for Various Combinations of Regions and Scenarios Eggparios! Summer, Evening Population Group Recion Permanent Seasonal Transient Emolovmant Boaters Total 1,10,12 Pop. 829 3782 342 71 0 5024
. Veh. 319 1455 122 55 0 1951 1,2,10, Pop. 1706 4021 346 71 0 6144 12 Veh. 656 1547 123 55 0 2381 1,6,10, Pop. 1329 3782 592 131 0 5834 12 Veh. 511 1455 211 102 0 - 2279 1,2,6, Pop. 2206 4021 596 131 0 6954 10,12 Veh. 848 1547 213 102 0 2710 () 1,6,7,8, 9,10,12 Pop. Veh. 11385 4379 8610 3312 1371 489 231 180 0 0 21597 8360 + 1,2,5,6, Pop. 12262 8849 1374 231 0 22716 7,8,9,10, Veh. 4716 3404 491 180 0 8791 12 , 1,2,3,4, Pop. 10958 4267 429 71 0 15725 5,10,11, Veh. 4215 1642 153 55 0 6065 12 1,2,3,10, Pop. 5924 4267 419 71 0 10681 11,12 Veh. 2279 1642 149 55 0 4125 1,10,11, Pop. 1816 4028 416 71 0 6331 ( 12 Veh. 699 1550 148 55 0 2452 i 1 - 12 Pop. 21514 9095 1458 231 0 32298 l , Veh. 8274 3498 520 182 0 12474 O 5-9 Rev. O
,i Table 5-4e. Population and Vehicle Estimates for Various Combinations of Regions and Scenarios i Scenarios: Winter, Midweek, Midday ; Population Group Recion Permanent Seasonaj. Transient Emoloyment Boaters Total 1,10,12 Pop. 829 189 342 706 0 2066 Veh. 319 73 122 552 0 1066 i 1,2,10, Pop. 1706 201 346 706 0 2959 12 Veh. 556 77 123 552 0 1408 1,6,10, Pop. 1329 189 592 1306 0 3416 12 Veh. 511 73 211 1021 0 - 1816 1,2,0, Pop. 2206 201 596 1306 0 4309 10,12 Veh. 848 77 213 1021 0 2159 () 1,6,7,8, 9,10,12 Pop. Veh. 11385 4379 431 166 1371 489 2306 1802 0 0 15493 6836 1,2,5,6, Pop. 12262 442 1374 2306 0 16384 7,8,9,10, Veh. 4716 170 491 1802 0 7179 12 1,2,3,4, Pop. 10958 213 429 706 0 12306 5,10,11, Veh. 4215 82 153 552 0 5002 12 1 , 2 , 3 ,.1 0 , Pop. 5924 213 419 706 0 7262 11,12 Veh. 2279 82 149 552 0 3062 1,10,11, Pop. 1816 201 416 706 0 3139 12 Veh. 699 78 148 552 0 1477 1 - 12 Pop. 21514 455 1458 2306 0 25733 Veh. 8274 175 520 1821 0 10790 0 5-10 Rev. 0
g 1 O' Table 5-4f. Population and Vehicle Estimates for Various Combinations of Regions and Scenarios l Scenarios: Winter, Evening Population Group Recion Permanent Seasonal Transient Emoloyment Boaters Total 1,10,12 Pop. 829 189 6 71 0 1089 Veh. 319 73 0 55 0 447 1,2,10, Pop. 1706 201 0 71 0 1978 12 Veh. 656 77 0 55 0 788 1,6,10, Pop. 1329 189 0 131 0 ' 1649 12 Veh. 511 73 0 102 0 686 1,2,6, Pop. 2206 201 0 131 0 2538 10,12 Veh. 848 77 0 102 0 1027 1,6,7,8, Pop. 11385 431 0 231 0 12047 9,10,12 Veh. 4379 166 0 180 0 4725 1,2,5,6, Pop. 12262 442 0 231 0 12935 7,8,9,10, Veh. 4716 170 0 180 0 5066 12 1,2,3,4, Pop. 10958 213 0 71 0 11242 5,10,11, Veh. 4215 82 0 55 0 4352 12 1,2,3,10, Pop. 5924 213 0 71 0 6208 11,12 Veh. 2279 82 0 55 0 2416 1,10,11, Pop. 1816 201 0 71 0 2088 12 Veh. 69 78 0 55 0 832
- 1 - 12 Pop. 21514 455 0 231 0 22200
- Veh. 8274 175 0 182 0 8631 I
lO 5-11 Rev. O
O Table 5-4g. Population and Vehicle Estimates for Various Combinations of Regions and Scenarios Scenarios: Spring, Midweek, Midday, Flood Population Group Recion Permanent Seasonal Transient Emnlovnent Boaters Total 1,10,12 Pop. 829 189 0 706 0 1724 Veh. 319 73 0 552 0 944 1,2,10, Pop. 1706 201 0 706 0 2613 12 Veh. 656 77 0 552 0 1285 1,6,10, Pop. 1329 189 0 1306 0 2824 12 Veh. 511 73 0 1021 0 1605 2206 () 201 1,2,6, Pop. 0 1306 0 3713 10,12 Veh. 848 77 0 1021 0 1946 1,6,7,8, Pop. 11385 431 0 2306 0 14122 9,10,12 Veh. 4379 166 0 1802 0 6347 1,2,5,6, Pop. 12262 442 0 2306 0 13010 7,8,9,10, Veh. 4716 170 0 1802 0 6688 12 1,2,3,4, Pop. 10958 213 0 706 0 11677 5,10,11, Veh. 4215 82 0 552 0 4849 12 , 1,2,3,10, Pop. 5924 213 0 706 0 6843 11,12 Veh. 2279 82 0 552 0 2913 1,10,11, Pop. 1816 201 0 706 0 2723 12 Veh. 699 78 0 552 0 1329 1 - 12 Pop. 21514 455 0 2306 0 24275 Veh. 8274 175 0 182.\ 0 10270 0 5-12 END Rev. 1
- 6. ERELIMINARY TRAFFIC CONTROL AND MANAGEMENI TACTICS
() This section presents the current set of traffic control and management tactics which are designed tc expedite the movement of evacuating traffic. The resources required to implement these tactics include: o Personnel with the capabilities of successfully performing the planned control functions of traffic guides. o Equipment to assist these personnel in the performance of their tasks: - Traffic Barriers Traffic Cones Signs l e A plan which defines all necessary details and is documented in a format which is easy to understand. The functions to be performed in the field are:
- 1. Facilitate evacuating traffic movements which serve to, expedite travel out of the EPZ along routes, which the analysis has found to be most effective.
- 2. Discourace traffic movements which permit evacuating vehicles to travel in a direction which takes them
(~}
\- significar tly closer to the power station, or which interferes with the productive flow of other evacuees.
] Wa employ the terms "facilitate" and "discourage" rather than j "enforco" and "prohibit" to indicate the need for flexibility in performing the traffic control function. There are always legitimate reasons for a driver to prefer a direction other than that indicated. For example: e He/she may be traveling home from work or from another location, to join other family members preliminary to evacuating. i e An evacuating driver may be taking a detour from the evacuation route in order to pick up a relative, o The driver may be an emergency worker en route to perform an important activity. The implementation of a plan must provide room for the application of sound judgment. This set of control tactics is the outcome of the following process: O 6-1 I b Rev. 0
v - - - -- __ _____. __
- 1. A field survey of these critical locations.
(7,!
\/ '
The sketches of Appendix I are based on the data collected during field surveys.and upon large-scale maps. We have found these maps to be less than accurate in some respects. The previous surveys did not focus at great longth on any particular set of locations, since we did not know which would be included in the set of Traffic Control Posts (TCP) .
- 2. Consultation with the officials of the area who will be implementing them: police department personnel, specifically.
Clearly, any control tactics should be reviewed by trained personnel who are experienced in controlling traffic and who are familiar with the likely traffic psttarns. Also these personnel know which it.'terbections are probable bottlenecks under heavy traffic demand conditions.
- 3. Prioritization of these TCP. Application of traffic control at some TCP will have a more pronounced influence on .
expediting traffic movements, than applying control at other TCP. Thus, during the mobilization of personnel to respond to the emergency situation, those TCP which are assigned a gs higher priority, will be manned earlier than the others.
/ This setting of priorities should be undertaken with the
, concurrence of town police. These priorities should be compatible with the availability of local manpower resmarces.
In each sketch which appears in Appendix I, the control policy at each TCP is presented in a manner which in self-explanatory. Figure 6-1 identifies the location of each i traffic control point. Figure 6-2 presents a map of Port Clinton showing traffic control points within the City. l Table 6-1 presents a summary of traffic control requirements by subarea. The assignment of Traffic control post to specific manning agencies is presented in Table 6-2. Finally, Table 6-3 presents a proposed list of traffic control points to be activated for three evacuation regions. This activation list is prioritized so that available manpower may be assigned to high priority locations first. It should be noted that a number of traffic control posts also correspead to perimeter control posts. Under these conditions the tactics described in Appendix I also tend to implement a perimeter control function. ) 6-2 9 Rev. 0
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Table 6-1. Summary of Traffic Control Points Manpower Equipment Required Subarea T2 Priority Recuired Cones Barricades 2 2-1 1 1 3 0 t 3 3-1 1 1 5 0 4 4-1 2 1 6 0 , 4-2 1 1 6 0 5 Sal 1 1 6 0 5-2 1 2 6 0 5-3 2 2 3 0 6 6-1 1 1 3 0 6-2 1 2 17 0 6-3 1 1 , 4 0 8 '8-1 1 2 0 13 9 9-1 1 1 0 0 9-2 2 1 0 0 9-3 2 (summer only) 1 3 0 9-4 1 1 3 0
\ 9-5 1 2 0 0 9-6 1 3 33 2 11-1 1 1 3 0 !
11 11-2 1 2 6 0 11-3 1 1 0 0 11-4 1 1 3 0 11-5 1 1 6 0 1 4 0 Catawba C-1 2 0 0 4 C-2 1 i i 12 4 Sandusky S-1 3 3 0 0 3 i S-2 2 2 1 0 2 Oregon 0-1 , 2 1 0 0 Lake Twp. L-1 i [ i 6-5 l Rev. O ! e e-*~,----+-,ww,,c--.-, y_,, _ _ ,
Table 6-2. Preliminary Assignment of Traffic control Posts O' to Manning Agency Personnel Agency Traffic control Posta peguired Ottawa County Sheriff 2-1, 3-1, 4-1, 5-1, 6-1, 6-2, 6-3, 8 Oak Harbor Police 5-2, 5-3 4 Ohio State Highway 4-2, 8-1, 9-6, 11-1, ' Patrol C-1, C-2, S-2 8 i Port Clinton Police Department 9-1, 9-2, 9-3, 9-4, 9-5 6 Lucas County Sheriff ' 11-2, 11-3, 11-4 3 (Oregon Police) (1) - t 4 Jerusalem Twp. Fire L Dept. 11-5 1 { , Sandusky Police S-1 3 , Oregon Police O-1 1 I Lake Twp. Police L-1 .1 l TOTAL 36 i . l i ) Y i l l - i i i I 6-6 Rev. 1 l
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,- - . - , - .- .-- -. . . - - - _ Rev. 0 -
- 7. TRAF/IC ROUTING PLANS O
\_/ Evacuation routes are composed of two distinct components:
e Routing from a community being evacuated to the boundary of the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) e Routing of evacueer from the EPZ boondary to Host ' communities and reception centers. Evacuees should be routed within the EPZ in such a way as to minimize their exposure to risk. This requirement is met by routing traffic so as to move away from the loce. tion of Davis Besse station to the extent practicable and by delineating evacuation routes which expedite the movement of evacuating vehicles. The routing of evacuees from the EPZ boundary to the host communities must also be responsive to several considerations o Minimizing the amount of travel outside the EPZ, from the points where these routes cross the EPZ boundary to the reception centers. - j e Relating the anticipated volume of traffic destined to
- each reception center, to chs capacity of,' the reception ,
f~s center facilities. s' e Assigning the residents of those towns which are members of a regional educational system, to the same reception center, to the extent possible. This would expedite the reunion of school children with other members of the i household, should the evacuation take place during a school day. Consequently, there is a linkage betwacn the routing plans and the choice of host communities. In light of this linkage, a review of the allocation of host communities to communities within the EPZ was performed. The Davis Besse EPZ is comprised of 12 subareast 10 in Ottawa County, 1 in Lucas County and 1 encompassing Lake Erie. Subarea
- boundaries were shown previously in Figure 2-1. Table 7-1
! presents the allocation of evacuation subareas to host
- comn. unities.
The routing plans for each of these subareas are presented in
! Appendix J. Appendix K presents maps -- one for each subarea --
delineating the evacuation routes frcm each community within the EPZ. These evacuation routes were submitted to the local law enforcement offices of all communities within the EPZ, for their l f review. 7-1 _b
---, _. y p.. -_,.,,,y ..,-.- ,,,,y _ e. --_~+---e-.py, -
-1 1_ . !
. i j
Table 7-1. Allocation of Subareas to Host Communities . 7 .- i i
- Sandusky Ohio - Subarea 9
.r- ;
I I { Fremont Ohio - Subareas 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 t l 1 7, 8 } l Oregon, Ohio - Subareas 10, 11 ! i 4 i 1 ! i i E 1 j a ,
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t r i t r i i I I e , t i b i t t I f i h l [ t b 7-2 ' END Rev. O f e
- - - = .- - - . . - _ _ -
. - - _ . -- - ~_
4
- 8. IMACMON TIME ESTIMATES (ETE) ;
l This section presents the current results of the computer , analyses using the IDYNEV System. These results cover ? o Eleven evacuation scenarios as summarized in Table 8-1, i and discussed in Section 5. o Ten regions within the Davis Besse Station EP2, as defined I in Table 8-2 and discussed in Section 5. Each region ' consists of one or more Subareas. The ETE for each Region-Scenario combination are presented in [ Tables 8-3a through 8-3c for scenarios 1-10. These tables ' present the time to clear the indicated population percentagen , from those subareas where an evincuation is the recommended protective action. Tables 8-4a through 8-4c present the timss to ; clear the 2, 5 and 10-mile radial areas. Note that, in most cases, subarea boundaries do not fall on these radial arcs. i It should be noted that, although the recommendation to evacuate is given to combinations of subareas, some traffic will i be generated in those subareas where evacuation is M
- recommended. For example, suppose a recommendation has been issued to the two mile region (Subarea 1 along with the parks and lake, subareas 10 and 12). In this case some people in subareas ,
2-9, and Subarea 11 will choose to evacuate. This effect is O sometimes referred to as spontaneous evacuation. ; The effect of spontaneous evacuation is to place additional vehicles onto the evacuation routes. These additional vehicles could impede the progress of those people who wish to avacuate. It is assumed here that 25 percent of the people in those subareas where evacuation is M recommended will evacuata spontaneously. The evacuation time estimates presented here include the effects of this assumption. Table 8-3a presents the time to evacuate 50 percent of the < affected population. Evacuation times are expressed as hours and , minutes after the evacuation recommendation is given. It should j be noted that the park and lake areas will be alerted earlier than the general population and it is likely that those areas r begin evacuating before the general population is no).ified of an evacuation recommendation. , Table 8-3b presents the ETE for 90 percent of the affected population. Table 8-3c similavly prasents the ETE for 100 ; percent of the affected population. The values of ETE are obtained by interpolating from IDYNEV output, which are generated at 30-minute intervals, then rounding uo the nearest 5 minutes. Thus, the numerical precision of these v d ues is within ilo minutes. I Rev. 1
.- - )
g Table 8-1. Summary of Evacuation Scenarios (' ) scenario Descrietion 1 Summer, Midday, Midweek, Good Weather 2 Summer, Midday, Midweek, Rain 3 Summer, Midday, Midweek, Flood 4 Summer, Midday, Weekend, Gosd Weather 5 Summer, Mj.dday, Weekend, Rain 6 Summer, Evening, Good Weather 7 Winter, Midday, Midweek, Good Weather 8 W n:2r, Midday, Midweek, Rain 9 Witc..., Midday, Midweek, Snov 10 Winter, Evening, Good Heather () 11 Spring, Midday, Midweek, Flood O 8-2 Rev. 1
1
, j
( . Table 8-2. Summary of Evacuation Regions
)
Recion Subareas Evacuated 0 - 2 miles 1, 10, 12 0 - 5 miles 1, 2, 10, 12 1, 6, 10, 12 1, 2, 6, 10, 12
, 0 - 10 miles 1, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12,
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1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, 11, 12 1, 2, 3, 10, 11, 12 1, 10, 11, 12 i 1 through 12 1 l l l O 8-3 Rev. O P
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p C ( O TABLE O-3C JAL*IS BESSE STATION EVACUATION TIM 5 CSTIMATES TIME TO CLEAR THE INDICATE 3 ARCA OF 100 PEAEL.' OF THE AFFECTEO POPUL AT ICN. INR$ IN.) I--.. .. =- Sumngg --.__----_.- _ =I--- __.. WINTER -------------l--- SP11NG ---I l ---------- -
= MIDOAY ---------------a- EV EN I N G -I --- - MIDDAY ------I - Ev 5 N IN G - I - ." I OO A Y --I j I MIDWEEK I WEEKEND I I MIDWEEK I I I I GOOD I G000 I Gp00 I GOOO I G000 I I I;1 SUS 44EAS I WEATHER RAIN FLOOC I WLAIHER RAIM I WEATHER I WEAT40R RAIN SNOW I WEATHER I FL900 I y=- _ _ -- - - ----
,-2 I I I f I I I I MILES 1 10.12 I C3:05 03:40 03:05 I G3:40 04:40 1 02:05 1 03:00 03:00 04:30 1 02:05 1 03:10 I 0- 5 I I I I I I I
, MILES 1 2 10.12 1 03:10 03:45 03:10 I C3:45 04:$0 1 02:10 I 03:05 03:05 04:35 I 02:10 I 03:10 I 00 1.o.13 12 I 03:05 03:40 03:05 I 03:40 04:40 I O2:C5 I 03:05 03:05 04:35 1 02:05 1 03:10 I t -
C' 1 2 6 10. 1 I I I I I I
- 12 1 03
- 10 J2:45 03:10 I 03:45 04:50 I 02:10 I 03:05 03:05 04:35 1 02:10 1 03:10 !
]
- - - - - - - - - - - - - . - - _ _ _ . . = . _ _ ______-.-- _
O- 13 1 6 7 8 9.I I I I I 1 1 MILE 5 10 12 I 04:35 05:50 07:35 I 05:35 07:05 1 02:30 I 03:05 03:10 04:35 1 02:05 I 06:05 I 2 1.2.5.6.7.I I I I I 1 I
-j 8.9.10 12 1 04:35 05:50 07:35 I CS:35 07:05 I 03:20 I 03:10 04:00 04:40 I 02:35 1 00:05 I 1.2.3.4.5.1 I I I I I I ; 10.11 12 1 03:45 04:50 03:45 I C4:30 05:40 1 02:45 I 03:10 03: 10 04:40 1 02:10 I 03:20 I 4 ---_------ _- . - - - - - - _ . . . . - - _ . _.._
1 2.3.10. I I I I I I I , 11.12 1 03:10 04: 10 03:30 I C4:05 05:10 I 02:10 I 03:10 03:10 04:40 I 02:10 1 03:10 I t __--------. _ ___-- ._.- _----- . ---__ . .. = - - __- ..... .----...--- 1 10.11. I I I I I I I 12 1 03:05 03:40 03:05 I C3:40 04:40 I 02:05 1 03:00 03:00 04:30 1 0? 05 I 03:10 I I I I I I I I 1 - 12 I 05:35 05:50 07:35 I 05:35 07:05 I 03:20 I 03:10 04:00 04:40 1 02:35 3 06:05 I e --------------. -...-...------ - ...-_.---=-_ m 9 4
s
\V <
s 4 4 TABLE 5-4A DAVIS BESSE STATION EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES 3 TIME TO CLEAR THE INDICATED RAOIAL A1EA 4 0F 50 PEACiNT OF THE AFFECTED POPULATION, j . IHRS. MIN.I i
- g_____.-_.__...---.- SUWMER -----=- ------- - f----------- WINTER - - - - - ---I--- SPRING ---I j 1------------- MIDOAY --------------- I - E V E N I N G - - = M I O D AY ------I- EV E N I N G -- M I OU AY ---I j I MIOwfEK I WEEKENC I I PIDWEEK I I I I G000 I GOOD I G030 I GOO 3 I GOOD I I l REJIOM I WEATHER RAIN FLOOO I WEATHC4 RAIN I WEATHER I WEATHER RAIN $NOW I WEATHLR I FLCCD I
-----... _.- -- ________ _- _ - _ _ _ _ _ - - - _ _ _ _ . _ _ _ . _ _ _ _ _ = - _ - - - = __ - - - - - - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ . - _ _ -
0-2 I I I I I I I MILES I 01:05 01:15 01: C5 I 01:25 D1:35 I 00:55 I 00:40 00:40 01:25 I 00:45 I 00:43 I
.___ --__---.---_-_ - - _=_-_ ~-_
$ I I I I g g g i 1 01:15 01:20 01:15 1 01:40 02:00 1 00:55 I 00:45 00:45 01:50 1 00:50 1 00:53 1 1 0- 13 I I I I I I I *
*D MILES I 01:55 02:15 02:20 I 02:10 02:45 1 01:20 1 01:20 01:35 02:40 I 01:05 1 02:03 1
-. -__--. --__.-------_- ==____ __..___
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Patterns of Traffic Concestion durina Evacuati'on
/-
(_/ Figures 8-1 through 8-2 illustrate the patterns of traffic j congestion which arise for the case when the entire EPZ is ordered to evacuate during the summer, midday, weekend period under good weather conditions (Scenario 4). Traffic congestion, as the term is used here, is defined as Levels of Service E and F. These terms are defined in the 1985 Highway Capacity Manual, as follows: o Level-of-service E represents operating conditions at or near the capacity level. All speeds are reduced to a low, but relatively uniform value. Freedom to maneuver within the traffic stream is extremely difficult, and it is generally accomplished by forcing a vehicle or pedestrian to "give way" to accommodate such maneuvers. Comfort and convenience levels are extremely poor, and driver or pedestrian frustration is generally high. operations at this level are usually unstable, because small increases in flow or minor perturbations within the traffic stream will cause breakdowns. e Level-of-service F is used to define forced or breakdown' flow. This condition exists wherever the amount of traffic approaching a point exceeds the amount which can traverse the point. Queues form behind such locations. operations within the queue are characterized by (~N N.,) stop-and-go waves, and they are extremely unstable. Vehicles may progress at reasonable speeds for several hundred feet or more, then be required to stop in a cyclic fashion. Level-of-service F is used to describe the operating conditions within the queue, as well as the point of the breakdown. It should be noted, however, that in many cases operating conditions of vehicles or pedestrians discharged from the queue may be quite good. Nevertheless, it is the point at which arrival flow exceeds discharge flow which causes the queue to form, and level-of-service F is an appropriate designation for such I points. These definitions are general and conceptual in nature, and they apply primarily to uninterrupted flow. Levels of service for interrupted flow facilities vary widely in terms of both the user's perception of service quality and the operational variables used to describe them. All highway "links" which experience either Level of Service E or F are delineated in the Figures by a thick dark line; all others are lightly indicated. O 8-10 Rev. 0
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- lI EV Acu AlsON *eE TWORK SCHE M A T8C O AVIS DESSE NUCLE AR POWER STATION Figure 8-l. Traffic Congestion Pattern at 3 IIours 30 Minutes after Order to Evacuato En t-i v a vp2 ic civan Ic:,-an a v i n 9)
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Figure 8-2. Traf fic Congestion- Pattern at 5 Hours after Order to Evacuate Entire EPZ is Given (Scenario 4) _ _ _ _ _ _ - _ _ _ _ _ _ - . __________________-
Congestion develops rapidly around concentrations of (~si population and traffic bottlenecks. By 3 hours 30 minutes \~) (Figure 8-1) after the evacuation recommendation soveral. distinct areas are congested: o The marina access roads west of DBNPS. o Camp Perry Area - significant numbers of people are l present at the rifle matches. o Port Clinton - Access to Route 2 from Fremont Road is limited by the capacity of the on-ramp to eastbound Route 2. In Port Clinton proper, Perry Street shows congestion in the area of the Route 2 access road. State Road is congested into Portage Twp. o Route 2 is congested at the approaches to the Sandusky Bay Bridge. o Oak Harbor - congestion is present along Routes 19 and 163 due to the fact that both evacuation stranas must cross the intersection of Route 19 and Route 163 in Oak Harbor. o Congestion is also present in the area of Route 590 and Route 105 where major evacuation routes merge. Figure 8-2 presents the congestion pattern 1 hour 30 micutes O later at S hours after evacuation is recommended. Note that some congestion is present in Port Clinton. The rest of the EPZ shaws no congestion. It should be noted that at time indicated, the remaining traffic congestion is at, or beyond 10 miles from DBNPS. It should be noted that the absence of congestion doos not necessarily mean that all people have been evacuated. Wnst it does mean is that traffic demand has decreased below the rcadway capacity for a sufficient period of time to dissipato any traffic queues. Evacuation Rates Trafric flow is a continuous process, as implied by Figures 8-1 and 8-2. Another format for displaying the dynamics of the evacuation procedure is depicted in Figure 8-3. This plot indicates the rate at which traffic flows out of the indicated I areas for the case of a full 10-mile evacuation under the I indicated conditions. Appendix L pre 1nts these figure s for the all eleven scenarios. As indicated in this Figure, there is typically a long "tail" to these distributions. Vehicles evacuate an area slovly at the beginning, as people respond to the order to evacuate at different rates, then builds rapidly (slopes of curves increase) . O 8-13 Rev. 1
O O O x 2-MILE REGION o _. 5-MILE REGION ,-_ ENTIRE EPZ A0000 ( 35000 - M 30000 p
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,0 Elapsed Time fro:n Order to Evacuate (Hours) 1 o l Figure 8-3. EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR DAVIS BESSE i
! SUMMER. WEEKEND. MIDDAY. GOOD WEATHER i e
When the system becomes congested, traffic flow remains at rates somewhat b.ilow capacity until some evacuation routes have (~)/ x_ cleared. As more routes clear, the rate of egress slows since many vehic}es have already left the EPZ. Towards the end of the. process, the one or two remaining ovacuation routes service the remaining demand. This de :line in aggregate flow rate, with time, is characterized by these curves gradually becoming horizontal. Ideally, it would be desirable to fully saturate all evacuation routes so that all will service traffic near capacity levels and all will clear at the same. time. For this ideal situation, all curves would remain steep until uhe and -- thus minimizing evacuation time. In the real world, this ideal is generally unattainable. Proper planning, however, can make an important difference in the utilication of existing highway capacity and in reducing evacuation tir.e to a practical minimum. It is int.3 resting to note thnt, examining Figure 8-3, the 2 and 5-mile regions tend to clear by 3 hours 45 minuttu after the order to evacuate. This time is barely 45 minutes after the last vehicle has begun its evacuation trip. The conclucien to be drawn from this data is that the Davis Besse roadway system is, in - general, not c.spacity constrained within about 5 miles of the plant. This conclusion is bolstered by Figure 8-1 which shows little congest $on present in the EPZ within 5 miles of the plant. ( Distribution of_Poculation and Vehicleq The NRC/ FEM 1- guidelines in NUREG 0654 recommand that the distribution of oopulation and of vehicles within the Emergency Planning Zone (E ?Z) be presented in the format of ?olar Sectors. These figures were presented earlier. It must be emphasized that polar sectors are for presentation purposes, only. To defint the spatial distribution of traffic demand, a total of 96 Sov';ce Neder. (i.e. centroids) were created. Each reprenents at area (or "Zone") within a community. The location of these centroid 3 are r,hown in Figure 1-2. Summary of Evacuat:.on Time Analusis A summary of evacuation tises is presented in Tables 8-5, which are presented in the format recommended in Appendix 4 of NUREG 0654. The analyses of Confirmation Time and of the ETE for Special Population segments Aro presented in Sections 9 and 10, respectively. Population estimates were obtained from the data presented in Section 2. These figures were aggregated into regions as defined in Table 8-2. The appropriate population percentage was applied to these figures based upon scenarios (see section 5). O 8-15 Rev. 1
Evacuation capacity from each region was ascertained by {"' aggregating the highway capacities of all outward-bound roads j which pierce the region's outer bounde.ry. Here, we have employed the capacity estimates associated with Level of Service F i conditions, which is estimated at 85 percent of the LOS E values l obtained from the 1985 Highway Capacity Manual for all access-controlled sections. The capacities'given represent clear weather conditions. These capacities are reduced by 20 percent for rain and 25 percent for snow. It is assumed that all roads are passable and that the recommended Appendix I). traffic control tactics are in effect (see It is important to stress that these estimates of available capacity may overstate the actual accessible capacity. Specifically, the high capacities offered by the eastern portion of State Route 2 cannot be fully utilized due to the limited number of entry ramps within the EpZ and to the limited capacities of these rampc. The estimated notification, preparation anct response (i.e. trip-generation) times which are listed correspond to the 100th percentile of the indicated population. That is, these are the times associated with the comoletion of the indicated process. The process itself (i.e. notification, preparation to evacuate, and departing on the evacuation trip) is best represented as a O. continuous distribution (see Figure 4-2). This representation graphically depicted the continuous nature of the process. The Evacuation Time Estimates (ETE) are those presented in Tables 8-3 and 8-4. Appendix N presents the results of a number of studies designed to determine the sensitivity of the ETE to changes in some basic assumptions. The studies presented are: the effects of traffic accidents; effects of changes in the rate of voluntary evacuees; and, the effects of slowly escalating accident scenarios. l l l l O 8-16 Rev. 1 [
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- 9. EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES (ETE) FOR TRANSIT OPERATIONS N/ This section details the analyses applied and the results obtained, which provide evacuation time estimates for transit vehicles. The procedure is:
e Estimate demand for transit service e Estimate time to perform all transit functions e Estimate route travel time o Determine how buses should be allocated to routes e Develop ETE Demand for transit service reflects the naeds of different "special population" groups:
- 1. Residents and transients with no vehicles available.
- 2. Special facilities: schools, health-support, child-care, other.
Evacuation Time Estimates for each of these population groups will now be developed.
~
Transit-Dependent Peoole - Demand Estima'ag The survey conducted in April of 1966 (see Appendices F and G) acquired h data base which enabled us to estimate the I portion of the population requiring transit service. This group is divided into two subgroups: e Those persons who belong to households which do not have a vehicle available. a Those persons who belong 'co households which normally do have at least one vehicle available, but would not have a vehicle available at tha time the evacuation is ordered. The persons belonging to the latter subgroup are in households where the vehicles (s) have been driven away from home for commuting purposes and are therefore not immediately available when the order to evacuate is given and, in addition, the driver (s) of the vehicles (s) refuse to return home to gather the household members. Question lo of the survey addressed this issue, other, less important factors, include the possibilities that the vehicle is non-functioning or that the commuter is willing, but unable to return home. I Tables 9-1 through 9-4 are typical print-outs of the software developed to analyze the survey data base and to provide the empirical basis for quantifying those two subgroups. These data were then multiplied by the sample factor (i.e. ratio of total l households sampled to the total number of households) to obtain 9-1 ]MD l
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the data for each community within the EPZ. Table 9-5 presents (,s\J the summary of this data. Since the survey did not include the portion of Lucas County within the EPZ, Ottawa County results were extrapolated. There are several factors which influence the accuracy of these estimates in Table 9-5:
- 1. These figures include school children. On school days, separate transportation is provided for the children in school and the actual need for this transit is thereby less than the given estimates.
- 2. These figures do not take into account the effects of ride-sharing with family, friends and neighbors who do have vehicles available. To the extent that ride-sharing is undertaken, the actual need for this transit is less than the given estimates.
- 3. These figures do not take into account the prospect that vehicles may not be available due to malfunction. To that extent, the actual need for this transit is slightly greater than the given estimates. ,
- 4. Since the number of surveyed persons who require transit is small relative to the total sample, and to the population (less than 3.0 percent), we are contending O with a problem of small sample size when the data is considered at the community level. That is, the confidence interval associated with these estimates is apt to be large. There is thus a statistical uncertainty associated with thsse estimates (as there is with any estimates obtained using statistical procedures) which should be prudently considered.
It is seen that some of the factors uhich cannot be readily quantified would tend to reduce these estimates, while others would tend to increase them. Despite these uncertainties, an up-to-date informational survey (as opposed to an opinion survey) remains the best means of quantifying such facts. In censideration of the potential health-threatening effects of a radiological accident, we consider it proper and prudent to increase these ostimates by 25 percent to ensure that an adequate supply of transit vehicle is provided. Table 9-6 presents estimatos of transit demand. There are several factors which influence the accuracy of these estimates in Table 9-6
- 1. These figures include school children, on school days, separate transportation is provided for the children in school and the actual need for this transit is thereby O less than the given estimates.
9-6 Rev. 0
's:
- t.
5 o
] Table 9-5.- EstimEtes of Ambulatory Persons Requiring Transit who DO NOT reside in Special Facilities
? arsons in H.H. with x vehicles .
none of which are available Community x= 0 1 2 3 4 Total Port Clinton 202 141 61 0 0 404 Oak Harbor 81 0 20 0 0 101 Rocky Ridge 0 0 0 0 0 0 Bay Township o 0 0 0 0 0 Benton Twp. 0 0 81 0 0 81 Carroll Twp. 40 0 40 0 0 80 Erie Twp. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Salem Twp. 0 40 121 20 0 181
/ w/o Oak Harbor Lucas Co. 37 - - - -
37 884 NOTES: 1. Of those who responded "NOT SURE" to the question: ! "Would you return home in an emergency at Davis Bessa?" we assume 50 percent would return home.
- 2. The sample factor is 20.21.
- 3. H.H. = Household.
- 4. A factor of 3.7 percent was applied to the Lucas Co.
population. i I l O 9-7 Rev. O i
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Table 9-6. Estimated Transit Requirements People Bus ! Community Reauirina Transit Tries Recuired ' Port Clinton 267 9 oak Harbor s s Rocky Ridge Bay Twp. Benton Twp. Carroll Twp. k 318 ) 11 Erie Twp. Harris Twp. Salem Twp. Lucas Co. J 26 bus trips Notes: 1. Assumption: 25 percent additive factor; 50 percent ridesharing; 6 percent additive factor for out of service vehicles !
- 2. 30 passengers / bus trips 4
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- l i
9-8 Rev. O
r
,-- A reduction in estimated demand due to school children i being evacuated by bus is justified only if the accident
\ occurs during a school day. Since school is in session 180 days in a year, for about 7 hours, the probability of an accident occurring when school is in session is approximately 180 x 7 365 x 24 = O-144 or 14.4 percent.
Consequently, since children will not be in school over 85 percent of the time, it is prudent to assume that all school children of transit-dependent families will be at home and will require transit.
- 2. Ride-sharing does have a pronounced impact on estimating the need for transit. For example, nearly 80 percent of those who evacuated from Mississauga, Ontario and who did not use their own cars, shared rides with neighbors and friends. Other documents also report that approximately 70 percent of transit-dependent persons were evacuated via ride-sharing.
We will adopt the lower figure of 50 percent to calculate the number of transit-dependent persons'who will i ride-share. The remaining 50 percent will need transit j vehicles in order to evacuate.
- 3. We will assume that the average vehicle is out of service about 3 weeks out of the year. Thus, we will increase I the number of transit-dependent persons by 6 percent to account for this factor.
The number of bus trips needed per route is based on the l conservative premise that the average bus occupancy at the conclusion of the bus run will not exceed 30 persons. This figure compares with an actual seated capacity of 40 adults or 60 children. For example, if the passengers are two-thirds adults and one-third children, then the bus capacity is (2/3) 40 + (1/3) 60 = 47 persons. On this basis, we have assumed that bus trips, at most, will be running at an average load factor of (30/47) 100 = 64 percent. Thus, even if the actual demand for service on a bus route exceeds the estimates in column 1 of Table 9-6 by 57 percent, that demand can still be accommodated by the tvailable seating capacity. Any additional demand can be accommodated by standing passengers or by rerouting buses from l more lightly loaded routes within the community. Since Port Clinton is the only crea within the EFZ with a i concentrated demand for transit service it is the only area where formal bus pick up points are justified. Figure 9-1 presents the l 4 bus pick up points in Port Clinten. Areas outside of Port () l Clinton can be serviced by requiring people to call a central 9-9 Rev 0
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() dispatch number or by maintaining an up to dats list of transit dependent people. In Lucas and Ottawa Counties the responsibility for transporting transit-dependent people is assigned to the fire fighters. Pickups will be made during route verification trips made by the fire fighters. Evacuation Time Estimates for Transit-Decendent Peoole Buses used for the evacuation of transit-dependent people in Port Clinton will be supplied by the Port Clinton School District. However, before these buses become available, they are to be used to evacuate school children from Port Clinton schools. Discussions with school district personnel yielded the following information about their bua system: No. of Buses: 20 66 pasenger 1 12 passenger minivan Time required to: 30-45 minutes mobilize drivers Early dismissal: 2 relays are used; first elementary sch'ool Plans children are bused home, then buses return to the high schools to transport those students. Although normal early dismissal plans call for a two stage lift of students, current evacuation plans call for the mobilization of approximately 16 additional buses from the Genoa, Woodmore, and Danbury school districts. Use of these buses permits the evacuation of the Port Clinton Schools in a single, coordinated movement. Several different scenarios must be considered in developing bus ETE's. The first scenario is defined as a winter, weekday with school in session. The second scenario is defined as a weekend, when school is not in session or during the summer. Figures 9-2 and 9-3 present the chronology of events for each of these scenarios. Note that Figures 9-2 and 9-3 are schematic; no specific elapsed time is implied for any activity. The elapsed time for each activity will now be discussed: Activity: Mobilize Drivers Mobilization may be defined as the elapsed time from the moment that the transit agency is notified of the need for vehicles until the time the vehicles leave their respective points of origin. Mobilization of school bus drivers is scheduled to begin at the alert stage. It is reasonable to estimate this time at about 15 minutes before the order to O evacuate is issued to the general public. 9-11 Rev. O
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r~'s Discussions with Port Clinton School Distr'ict personnel () indicate that, historically, it takes between 30 and 45 minutes to alert bus drivers to the need for an early dismissal due to inclement weather. It has been noted that during conditions which could lead to early school dismissals (snow, storms) bus drivers are primed to respond even before the event (in this case, implementation of early dismissal plan), whereas drivers would likely require a longer period of time to mobilize for an accident at Davis Besse because they would not be aware of unfolding events in the way that they recognize the approach of a storm. Consequently, it was decided to utilize a mobilization time of 1 hour under normal conditions and 1 hour 15 minutes under adverse weather conditions. Activity: Proceed to Schools In general, the distance between the bus garage and the Port Clinton schools, or bus pick up points when school is not in session, is under two miles. At an average speed of 10 miles per hour, the trip takes about ten minutes. Activity: Load / Unload cassenaera . Studies have shown that passengers can board a bus at headways of 2-4 seconds (Ref. 1986 Highway Capacity Manual). A bus can be loaded with school children in about five minutes. (~') Transit-dependent people take longer to load a bus because these
\_/ people will have some luggage and personal possessions with them.
A value of 15 minutes is used. However, it cannot be assumed that a full load of passengers will be present when a bus arrives at a pick-up point. Buses will wait at pick-up points until they have a high load factor. A 30 minute dwell time at bus pick-up points is used for the ETE computation. Activity: Travel to Reception Center from Schools The distance between Port Clinton and the Reception Center in Sandusky is approximately 20 miles. The results of the traffic simulation analysis for both winter snow and good weather conditions indicate that, after one hour, an average speed of 20 l miles per hour is attainable in adverse weather and 40 miles per l hour in good weather. Activity: Return from Reception Center to Port Clinton ( It might be expected that travel into the Port Clinton area after an evacuation has been ordered should be easier than during normal periods. Thio supposition is based on the fact that most people will avoid travelling into the area at risk unless there is some compelling reason to do so. On this basis, we will l G 1 l 1 9-14 Rev. O I
assume average speeds from Sandusky to Port Clinton will be 20 ('-)s q, miles per hour in adverse weather and 40 miles per hour in good weather. Activity: Travel to ReceDtion Center with Transit-Decendent Peoole The ETE for transit-dependent people is measured to the instant these people leave the EPZ, not the time they arrive at the reception center. Assuming an average speed of 10 miles per hour in Port Clinton, about 10 minutes would be required to leave the city. Table 9-7 summarizes the results of the transit-dependent evacuation analysis. With schools in session and a rapidly escalating accident scenario, between 3 and 4 hours elapse before the buses leave the EPZ on the last run. When school is not in session, buses can be ready to leave within 2 hours. However, at this time only about 85 percent of the general population is prepared to leave the EPZ. Therefore, some bus service must be made available to people arriving at bus pickup points after 2 hours. - Evacuation time estimates for transit-dependent people outside of Port Clinton are based upon buses traveling O approximately 40 miles inside of the 10 mile region; 25 miles inside of the 5 mile EPZ; and 5 miles inside of the 2 mile region to pick up people. Average speeds in the EPZ for various conditions are as follows: Normal Adverse Summer weekend 15 mph 10 Winter 35 mph 20 Mobilization time is assumed to be the same as for Port Clinton buses; 1 hour in good weather, 1 hour 15 minutes during adverse conditions. A summary of the ETE for transit-dependent people outside of Port Clinton is shown in Table 9-8. Schools and Soecial Facilities - Demand Estimates Figure 9-4 presents the locations of 19 schools and special tacilities within the DBNPS EPZ. Tables 9-9 present school and special facility population and transportation requirements. Three tables are presented; Table 9-9a for schools in the Benton-Carroll-Salem (BCS) School District, Table 9-9b for schools in the Port Clinton School District, and Table 9-9c for special facilities. Note that in each table the number of buses required to transport students are estimated. In addition, the
-s school district which supplies the buses is noted. The estimate q j of the number of buses required is based on analysis of the 9-15 Rev. O i _
E. () Table 9-7. Summary of Component Bus Evacuation Times School in Session School not in session Activity Good Adverse Weather Weather Mobilize Drivers 1:00 1:15 1:00 Proceed to Schools 0:10 0:10 -- Board School Children 0:05 0:05 -- Travel to Reception Center 0:30 1:00 -- Unload Children 0:05 0:05 -- Proceed to Bus . Pick-up points 0:30 1:00 0:10 Load Transit-Dependent People 0:30 0:30 0:30 Travel to EPZ Boundary 0:10 0:10 0:10 Total Time 3:00 4:15 1:50 l )O 9-16 Rev. 0
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O Table 9-8. ETE Summary for Transit-Dependent People Outside of Port Clinton Summer ' 2 Mi.11- 5 Mile '10 Mile Weather Qqad rad Good Rad Good Bad Activity Mobilization 1:00 1:15 1:00 1:15 1:00 1:15 Travel Time :20 :30 1:20 2:30 2:20 4:00 Passenger Pickup :15 :15 115 :15 115 :15 ETE 1:35 2:00 2:35 4:00 3:35 5:30 l-Winter 2 Mile 5 Mile 10 Mile, Weather Good Bad Good Had Good Rad Activity e Mobilization 1:00 1:15 1:00 1:15 1:00 1:15 Travel Time :10 :15 :45 1:15 1:10 2:00 Passenger Pickup :15 :15 :15 :15 :15 :15 ETE 1:25 1:45 2:00 2:45 2:25 3:30 1 O ! 9-17 Rev. 0
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R.C. WATERS SUBAAEA 5 453 8 SENTON-CARROLL-5ALEM ELEMENT 4Af 6 5 PILES 55h e I OAA PARSCR JA. SU8 AREA 5 398 6 BENTCN-CARECLL-5ALEM b3GH SCHOOL 5.5 PILES 55h can HAmeJ4 $USAREA 5 562 9 BENTON-CARACLL-5ALEM (13 hies SiH00L 6.0 PILES SSW GENOA (33 ! ST. e7NI F A CE SUSAREA 5 96 2 S EN TCN-C ARR OL L-5 AL E M 1 CATHULIC SCHOOL 5 MILES 55h i, - i N tD l 4 k, o i i ,1
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JEtM410m SU6AE8 A 9 346 5 ELi*tNTARY 10 5 WILES $L PostT CLINT04 1 MINIVAN I mat AC% 4 T E SUSAREA 9 219 C *,.4C EP T I ON 4 PO4T CLINTCM 10.5 MILES SE Y PJ P'14T CL ImTCM Ja. sue 44EA 9 JT6 6 PGAT CLinTON (43 hl6H SCHCOL 10 MILES SE o CANSURY E23 P3df ELINT54 IUSAREA 9 654 14 HIGM SLHOOL DAN 3URY ( T) 11 PILES SE + teC00p0RE ET3 P)at CLt"34 505AEEA 9 42 1 CH.15f? - GEseOA 11 m3Lts SE S 3 O
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SPEClat FACILITIES FsCILITY LOCATIC4 ENRJLLPEMT 8b5ES REJUIRED SUS SOUACE
- afkSTEN CCA45% Sugat5a S 43 1 GEh0S huk5217 7.5 MILES 55W
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passenger capacities of buses in the school bu's fleets to be (N () utilized. Table 9-10 summarizes the capacities of the various bus fleets. Evacuation Time Estimates for Schools and SDecial Facilities In developing evacuation scenarios for schools and special facilities, several conditions were evaluated:
- 1. The effect of a split evacuation for the Benton-Carroll-Salem Schools. The split ovacuation ccenario envisions utilizing the existing B-C-S bus fleet to evacuate all elementary students followed, in a second wave, by all high school students. Comparison was made with a simultaneous evacuation of all students with the aid of additional buses from Genoa.
- 2. The effects of adverse weather was evaluated.
Table 9-11 presents the ETE for Benton-Carroll-Salem Schools for a single, coordinated movement of students. Note that the distances buses travel to the facility for Oak Harbor High School reflect the use of Genoa-based buses. - Table 9-12 presents the ETE for Benton-Carroll-Salem Schools using a split-evacuation assumption. As noted in the table, l f'\ s following the evacuation of elementary school children, buses must return to evacuate high school students. The sequence of events for the evacuation of Oak Harbor High School, postulated in Table 9-12 as the mobilization time is based upon the analyses presented in Table 9-13. l Tables 9-11 and 9-12 indiccte that a single coordinated evacuation of the B-C-S schools will require between 1.5 and 2 hours, depending on weather conditions. If a split evacuation is undertaken, the last students leave the EPZ between 2.5 and 3.5 hours after the order to evacuate the schools is issued. Table 0-14 presents the Facility ETE analysis for Port Clinton and the special facilities. Note that speeds within the EPZ are generally lower in Port Clinton than the rest of the EPZ. The table reflects the use of buses from the Danbury, Woodmore and Genoa School Districts. Emercency Medical Services (EMS) Vehicles l i The previous discussion focused on transit operations for i ambulatory persons within the EPZ. It is also necessary to provide transit services to non-ambulatory persons who do not -- or cannot -- have access to private vehicles. O 9-22 Rev. O
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9 I l () Table 9-10. Summary of Bus Fleet Capacity Inside EPZ Port Clinton School District 20-66 Passenger Buses 1-12 Passenger Minivans .; Benton-Carroll-Salem School District 24-66 Passenger Buses I Outside EPZ Woodmore School District 9-65 Passenger Buses 1-24 Passenger 'uuses Genoa School District 8-72 Passenger Buses 9-66 Passenger Buses 1-65 Passenger Buses 1-12 Passenger Buses Danbury School District 9-65 Passenger Buses Riverview School 3-16 Passenger Buses 1-14 Passenger Buses 1-24 Passenger, 7 i Wheelchair Buses j 1-21 Passenger, 4 i Wheelchair Buses 1-19 Passenger, 6 Wheelchair Buses 1-10 Passenger, 2 4 Wheelchair Buses l i lO 9-23 Rev. 0 1
m TABLE 9-111 SEHOOL AhD SPECI AL F ACILITY EVACUATICN TIME 5 dENTON - CARROLL - SatgM SCHCCL5 j , INGLE EVACUATICN OF ALL SCHOOLS l oliTAhCE DISTANCC TRAVEL TIME 1 F:.0 M FAGM TRAVEL TIME FROM FROM ) $US DEP77 F AC IL IT Y 805 ERIVER SUS DEPCT SUS l TO TO FACILITY FACILITV AVtRACE SPEED MCSILIZATION TO LOAnissG TO LTE F A C IL I TY EPl SORY. WITPIN E*Z TIME FACILITY TIME E7Z dDuY. hop. I ACW. FALILITY IPILESS ("fLES3 (PILES /MCbR; EMIhUTESS EMINUTES) (MINUTC58 ( # E NU TE 5 5 .tHRS.tMIh5.3 CA=RJLL iLE"ENTARY 35 7.5 4C / 20 6C / TS 5 5 25 1 35 / 1150 G*AYT0d4 ELEMENTARY 6.5 3.5 - 4C / 23 6C / T5 to 5 5 1 20 / 1:35 k3LMY AIDGE 5.0 5.0 40 / 2J 60 / TS 10 5 15 1830 / 1345 LLt"ENTARY 43 a.C. WATLAS 1.0 40 4C / 20 6C / 75 5 5 15 ttLE % %TARI
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2:25 / 134C f CSK HAASO' JR. 3.5 3.5 40 20 6 0. / 75 5 HI;H SLMCOL 5 10 1:3C / 1:45 C4% H A A S DA 11.0 3.5 4C / 20 6C / T5 15 5 to I:3C / 1:45 PIG 1 SCMOOL ST. a3htFACE 95 4.0 4C / 20 fC / T5 5 5 1L 1825 / 1 40 4 CATHOLif SCHG3L m1Tr$3 (13 EVACUATION TIMF ESTIMATES AAE REFERENCED FRCM TME TRAh5MI553CN CF THE ORDER TO EVACUATE 4 TC ThF SCH00L5 AND SPLCI AL F ACIL ITIES. THIS CACit MAY PRirED2 Ynt SADER TO EVACLATE THE CENER AL POPULATION. I 123 AWERAGE SPEE0 WITHIN THE EPl 15 5HCWN FOR SCTh th8CUND AND OUTSCUNO (WITH EVACUATION 3 OIRECTI3NS. i (38 9US DRIVER let EU5t5 FOR DAE MOBILIIATICM HARb04 H.S. TIML5 ARE P4ESENTED SCR ACM14AL th0 ADVERSE WEATHER CONotitomi. AR E Ca A.as FhCM THE GEACA SCH0JL SUS FLEET. O
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km ) Table 9-13.- Estimation of the'Elapsad Time Required to have Buses Available to Evacuate Oak Harbor High School (Split Evacuation) Elansed Time (Minutes) Good Adverse E,"tni Etather Weather Evacuation of Elementary Schools 95 110 (1) Travel Time from EPZ Boundary to Vanguard H.S. in Fremont 15 30 (2) Unload Buses 5 5 Travel time from Vanguard H.S. in Fremont to Oak - Harbor H.S. 25 45 (3) Elapsed Time 140 190 (4) Notes: (1) Elementa:ty School ETE is defined as the time childron i leave the'EPZ. Value are obtained from Table 9-12. (2) The distance from the EPZ boundary to Vanguard High School in Fremont is approximately 10 miles. Average speeds outside of the EPZ are 40 miles per hour in good weather and 20 miles per hour in adverse weather. (3) The distance between Vanguard H.S. and Oak Harbor l H.S. is opproximately 15 miles. Average speeds for this trip are 40 miles per hour in good weather and 20 miles per hour in adverse weather. (4) The elapsed time shown is the time between the issuance af an order to evacuate schools and the time buses are ready to load high school students, i j !O l l t 9-26 l Rev. O t
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, nn 64 L-27 gey, o
l Discussions with the State of Ohio indicate that the f) responsibility for evacuating this special population group
'" resides with the Ohio National Guard based in Tiffen, Ohio, 30 miles south of the EPZ. Mobilization time for this National Guard unit is estimated at 6 hours (Reft Ohio RERP Plan, Figure II-J-21).
l Thus the total elapsed time, at worst, from notification to thm arrival of an EMS vehicle at its destination within the EPZ, is 03timated at:
!!obilitation Time: 6:00 hours Inbound Travel: 30/40 + 0.25 1:00 Loading Passengers: 0:40 7:40 Outbound travel would not be controlled by the speed of other evacuating vehicles, because by 7 hours any congestion present during evacuation would have dissipated. Adverse conditions in summer and winter would increase the ETE by 15 and 30 minutes respectively.
Summary of ETE - Tables 8-4 contain evacuation summaries for various scenarios. Values for special population in the 10 taile region x containing subareas 5 and 3 (locations of special facilities) reflect the considerably longer evacuation time for the specia) facility population. As was indicated, evacuation times for transit-dependent < people are considerably less. E Rev. 0
)
m ,_ _ __ ___ . _ - _ . _ __ _ . _ _ . i i
- 10. SURVEILLANCE OF EVACUATION. OPERATIONS !
i There is a need for surveillance of traffic operations dur!ng
- the evacuation. ThJre is also a concommitant need for tow-truck
!- equipment to clear any blockage of roadways arising from ! i accidents or vehicle disablement. ! surveillance can take several forms. ! i ! 1. -Arrangements may be made with the civil Air Patrol or f: commercial flight services to provide aerial surveillance, using either helicoptor or fixed-wing ; aircraft. Such surveillance is effective both day and , night, weather permitting. The aircraft must have a :
- communication link to the EOc and the pilot must be t j
trained to utiliae dosimetry equipment and be informed so i that he can avoid the plume, if any. -
- 2. Ground patrol should be undertaken along well-defined i paths to ensure coverage of those highways which serve as ;
major evacuation routes. ! ) i
- 3. Fixed-point surveillance is provided by all traffic .
guides located at the Traffic control Posts and at the l Perimeter Control Posts. 1 These concurrent surveillance procedures are designed to ; ) provide coverage of the entire EPZ as well as the area around its
- i periphery. With this coverage, any blockage caused by a disabled ;
- vehicle should be quickly identified within a matter of minutes I
e From the air, a blockage is identified by a marked discontinuity in traffic density. Upstream of the , ] blockage, evacuating vehicles will exhibit a densa queuing i
- pattern while the highway downstream will exhibit a very I i low density. Such a discontinuity is easily detected at i night, by observing the pattern of head-lights and i tail-lights, and by day, directly. 3 e The patrol cars, manned by experienced police personnel, l
- should be able to travel faster than the general public ;
! along those portions of their routes which are in the ; j outbound direction. These patrol routes are designed so l l that the patrols travel counter-flow, relative to the r evacuees, on these roads which are most heavily congested. [ t Most patrol routes are approximately 15 miles in length, i i This length, in combination with skillful driving by experienced police personnel, should permit one cycle over j the route to be completed well within one hour. A l j blockage would be identified visually vaing the same l l criteria of density discontinuity described above, or ,
/~T dirsetly, t Q
1
- i i
10-1 i I % D, Rev. O ;
While such patrols are somewhat redundant, if aerial
~D surveillance is available, we recommend its implementation (d
\ if resources permit. Certainly, as traffic volum+s decrease with time, some personnel at lightly-loassd TCP could assume this role of patrolling the indicated routes. o Personnel at the TCP and PCP would recugnize that a blockage (beyond visible range) has occurred, when a pronounced and extended decrease in evacuating traffic volume is observed along an evacuation route. While short-term fluctuations in demand are common, any sharp decrease in demand which prevails for more than three minutes should be viewed as a symptom of a blockage somewhere on an approach to of the TCP location. It is also probable that a passing motorist will inform the traffic guide that a blockage has taken place. The traffic guide would immediately report to the EOC that an apparent blockage is taking place. If more than one guide is stationed at the TCP, then one officer can leave the post to investigate the cause. If a police car is patrolling the route, then that car can be assigned to investigate, . Tow Vehicles, In a low-speed traffic environment, any vehicle disablement (( , +) is likely to arise due to mechanical failure or exhausting the fuel supply. In either case, the disabled vehicle can be pushed onto the shoulder, thereby restoring access for the following vehicles. Most accidents involving vehicles travelling at low speeds such as present during congested conditions, will not result in a vehicle disablement; most of those that are disabled can be pushed onto the shoulder. Experience in past emergencies indicate that such activities (i.e. pushing a disabled vehicle to the side of the road) is often undertaken by other evacuees who are anxious to continue their trips. While the need for tow vehicles is expected to be low under the circumstances described above, it is still prudent to be prepared for such a need. We therefore recommend that tow trucks be deployed at strategic locations within, or just outside, the EFZ. These locations should be selected so that: o They permit access to key, heavily loaded, evacuation routes. e Tow trucks responding to a need would most likely travel counter-flow relative to evacuating traffic. O 10-2 END Rev. O
l i i i ; l 1
- 11. CONFIRMATION TIME It is necessary to confirm that the evacuation process is
, effective, in the sense that the public is responding _to the
- ! recommendation to evacuate. Since it is not feasib?e to confirm l the compliance of every household within the EPZ in -1 timely manner, a procedure which employs a stratified randoh sample is j recommended.
j The size of the sample is dependent on the expect 9d number of ; ! households which do not comply with the order to evacu.ste. We ! ! believe it is reasonable to assume, for the purpose of estinating l l sample size, that at least 80 percent of the population within .' j the EPZ will comply with the order to svacuate. On this basiw,
- an analysis was undertaken (see Exhibit 11-1) which yielded an i estimated sample size of approximately 300.
The confirmation process should start at about 3 hours after . l the order to evacuate is announced or 1 1/2 hours prior to the ! ETE value, whichever is later. For example, if the ETE, referenced to the order to evacuate, is 6:30, then the confirmation process should begin 5 hours after the order. If , the ETE is 3:30, then the confirmation process should begin 3 hours after the order to evacuate. At these times, for either case, virtually all evacuees will have departed on their ! respective trips and the local telephone system will be largely () free of traffic. As indicated in Exhibit 11-1, almost 8 1/2 person hours 4re i j needed to complete the telephone survey. Thus, if 7 people are .
- assigned to this task, each dialing a different set of telephone l
; exchanges (e.g. each person can be assigned a different group of . ERPA's), then the confirmation process will extend over a time l frame of about 75 minutes. Thus, the confirmation should be
- completed about 15 minutes before the evacuated area is cleared (for those cases where the ETE exceeds 4
- 30) or up to 45 minutes '
- after the area is cleared, for situations with shorter ETE. Of F
! course, fewer people would be needed for this survey if only a portion of the EPZ is ordered to evacuate. I ; i Should the number of telephone responses (i.e. people still l l at home) exceed 20 percent, then the telephone survey should be > , repeated after and hour's interval until the confirmation process ! is completed. l - l l I i i f i O > r I ' ' 11-1 Rev. O I
[}
\s Exhibit 11-1. Estimated Number of Telephone Calls Required for Confirmation of Evacuation l
Ereblem D241Dition Estimate number of phone calls, n, needed to ascertain the , proportion, p, of households that have not evacuated > 1
Reference:
Burstein, H., Attribute samelina, McGraw Hill, 1971 Givent No. of households plus other facilities, N, within the EPZ (est.) = 6,500 Est. proportion, p, of households that will not evacuate = 0.20 Allowable error margin, et 0.05 Confidence level, t 0.95 (implies A = 1.96) ' Applying Table 10 of cited reference, p' = p + e = 0.25 ; q = 1 - p' = 0.75 l A 2 piq+, i
- e2
() Finits population corrections ny = n+N-1
= 294 i Thus, some 300 telephone calls will confirm that approximately 20 percent of the population has not evacuated. If only 10 percent of the population does not comply with the order to evacuate, then the required sample size, ny = 210.
Est. Person Hours to corolate 300 telechone calla Assume: Time to dial using touch-tone (random selection of listed numbers): 30 seconds ; Time for 8 rings (no answer): 48 seconds ' Time for 4 rings plus shcrt conversation: 60 sec. Interval between calls: 20 sec. l Person Hours: 300(30+20+0.8(48)+0.2(60))/3600 = 8.4 l t i l 11-2 Rev. 0 Euo ;
ee Y $ 9 I l I 9 l - APPENDIX A ( ' Glossary of Terms t l t' , , I ( l i l i
i A i I (j Appendix A: Glossary of Terms Term Definition capacity Maximum number of vehicles which have a reasonable expectation of passing a given section of road-way in one direction during a given time period under prevailing roadt.3y and traffic conditions. These are estimates which are ex-pressed as vehicles per hour (vph) Centroid An origin or destination located in the interior of the network. Content , Number of vehicles occupying a section of roadway at a particular point in time. Destination A location in the network, either 1
) within the interior or on the periphery, to which trips are l
attracted, i Entry Node A network node, usually located on the periphery of a network, which j serves only as an origin. That is, ! vehicles ace generated and move
- into the network to travel toward their respective destinations.
Exit Node A network node, usually located on the periphery of a network, which serves only as a destination. That is, vehicles which arrive at an I exit node are discharged from the l network. A-1 Rev. 0
1 h (J (_) Term Definition Green-Time to Cycle Time The ratio of the duration of a green Ratio (G/C Ratio) interval to the cycle length. This ratio denotes the proportion of time available to service a specified traffic movement on a specific approach to an intersection. Internal Mode All nodes which are not Entry or Exit nodes. Vehicles travel through these nodes from one link to the next along their respective paths toward their respective destinations. Level of Service An index (A, B, ..., E) which is a qualitative descriptor of the oper-ational performance of traffic on a section of roadway, usually ei-pressed in terms of spee4 travel time or density. In practice, l each L'evel of Service index is i (_) often associated with a range of service volumes. This relation de-pends on the type of facility (freeway, rural road, urban street) . Link A network link represents a specific, one-directional section of roadway. , A link has both physical (length,- ! number of lanes, topology, etc.) and operational (turn movement per-centages, service rate, free-flow speed) characteristics. Measures of Effectiveness Statistics describing traffic opera-tions on a roadway network. Node A network node generally represents l a specific intersection of network links. A node has control charac-teristics, i.e. the allocation of service time to each approach link. A-2 Rev. O
e Term Definition Origin A location in the network, either within the interior, or on the periphery, where trips are generated at a specified rate expressed in vehicles per hour (vph). These trips enter the roadway system to travel to their respective destina-tions. Network A graphical representation of the geometric topology of a physical roadway system, which is comprised of directional links and nodes. Prevailing roadway and Relate to the physical features traffic. conditions of the roadway, the nature (e.g. composition) of traffic on the roadway and the ambient conditions (weather, visibility, pavement () , conditions, etc.) Service Rate Maximum rate at which vehicles, executing a specific turn maneuver, can be discharged from a section of roadway at the prevailing con-ditions, expressed -in. vehicles per second (vps). Service' Volume Maximum number of vehicles which can pass over a section of roadway in one direction during a specified time period with operating conditions at a specified Level of Service. (The service volume at Level of Service, E, is equal to Capacity) Service Volume is usually expressed as vehicles per hour (vph). Signal Cycle, The total elapsed time to display Cycle Time or all signal indications, in sequence. Cycle Length The cycle length is expressed in () seconds. , A-3 Rev. 0
1 l l ()
/m Term Definition 1
Signal Interval A single combination of signal indications. The interval duration is expressed in seconds. In gen-eral, several intervals, in sequence, comprise a phase. Signal Phase A set of signal indications (and intervals) which services a parti-cular combination of traffic move-ments on the approaches to the intersection. The phase duration is expressed in seconds. Traffic Assignment A process of assigning traffic to paths of travel in such a way as to satisfy all trip objectives (i.e. the desire of each vehicle to travel from a specified origin in the network to a specified de-l stination) and to optimize some stated objective or combination of (s)
. objectives. In general, the ob-jective is stated in terms of mini-mi2ing a generalized "cost".
For example, "cost" may be ex-pressed in terms of travel time. Traffic Density The number of vehicles which occupy one lane of a roadway section of* specified length at a point of time, expressed as vehicles per lane-mile (vplm or vpm) Traffic Simulation A computer model designed to repli-cate the real-world operation of I vehicle: en a roadway network, so as to provide statistics describing traffic performance. Those sta-tistics are called Measures of Effectiveness. l CE) A-4 Rev. O
, i
( Term Definition Traffic volume The number of vehicles which pass over a section of roadway in one direction, expressed in vehicles per hour (vph). Where applicable, traffic volume may be stratified by turn movement. Travel Mode Distinguishes between private auto, bus, rail and air travel. modes. Trip Table A rectangular matrix or table, whose or entries contain the number of trips Origin-Destination which are generated at each specifie Matrix origin, during a specified time period, which are attracted to (and travel toward) one of the specified destinations. The'se values are ex-pressed in vehicles per hour (vph) or in vehicles. Turning capacity The capacity associated with that component of the traffic stream which executes a specified turn maneuver from an approach at an ' intersection. l l f l l l l ' A-5 END Rev. 0
( I I l I { l t
.e
~
' APPENDIX B Traffic nssignraent Model i
t i l 4'
} .
l 1 l t n
---- - _ _ __t_ _ __ __ "'""*'emmewa-,~m
O( Appendix B: Traffic Assignment Model The traffic assignment program which is employed in this study is an elaboration of an existing model developed by Dr. Sang Nguyen.* This model is an equilibrium assignment model which employs mathematical programming methodology to search for, and attain, a global optimum solution. The term,"optimum" , implies that the solution is unique and that it minimizes a specified cost function. This cost function, in our application, is expressed directly in terms of aggregate travel time. That is, the model formulation relates travel time to the assigned volumes on each network link according to the following formulation: [y,)b 1 + a' d Ti=To,1 (C) where - Ty = Travel Time on link, i,sec T 'I = Specified free-flow (zero delay) travel time on link,1,sec V g = Volume of traffic on a link,i, vph Cf = Capacity of link,1, vph a,b = Specified calibration parameters , The cost function, then, is formulated in terms of travel time along each path from each origin to each respective destina-tion. Minimizing this path-specific travel time (i.e. the so-called User Optimization)., all vehicles are assured of being routed along the shortest (in travel time) possible path to their respective destinations. The computational algorithm assigns traffic over the network l in such a way as to minimize this aggregate cost. That is, the l allocation of volumes, V, to the network links, i=1,2. . . , N is l accomplished in such a way as to:
*Nguyen, S. and James, L., "TRAFFIC - An Equilibrium Traffic Assignment Program," Publication No. 17, Centre de Reserche sur '
les Transports, March 1975. B-1 gey, o t
e Satisfy all specified origin-destination domands, e Satisfy the minimum-cost (travel time) objective, e satisfy any specified control treatment and turn re-strictions designed to:
- Expedite the evacuation process
- Minimize radiation exposure of the vehicle occupants.
Mo:st applications of traffic assignment employ constant, estimated, values of link capacity, Ct. It is well known, how-ever, that link capacity is a function of many factors including ' the (unknown) turn volumes on all links serviced by a common intersection. Consequently, the assumption of constant link capacity compromises the efficacy of the assignment results. To resolve this problem, XLD has expanded the existing TRAFFIC model to incorporate a model, named the TRAFLO CAPACITY model. This model computes accurate estimates of capacity, C are always consistent with the assigned volumes, V i, on each 1,that > link. .This capacity model consists of three integrated components e ' A formulation which calcu'lates the service rates for through and left-turning vehicles in a lane, given, among other data, the proportion of left-turners in the lane, e Another formulation for through and right-turner service rates, e A formulation which calculates the lateral deployment" of traffic on an approach, yielding the proportion of through and turning vehicles in each lane. These three components are exercised in an iterative
- manner to produce accurate and self-consistent estimates of r
l service rates for approaches of general configuration and for all types of control devices. Many tests have confirmed that this solution procedure is rapid, accurate and unconditionally con-vergent. In sunmary, the Traffic Assignment Model used in this project represents the latest state-of-the-art and providos accurate esti-O ' B-2 Rev. O I
,_ - .. _ _. _ _ _ - - - - - - -- - " ' ~ ~ ~
Ls mates of link volumes, stratified by turn movement at the down-stream mode (intersection). These turn volumes on each link are subsequently input into the Traffic Simulation Program. Another output provided by the Traffic Assignment model is the estimated travel times on each link. These estimates are not particularly accurate--they are usually optimistic--but they do identify the "hot spots" in the network: those links which are severely congested. This permits the analyst to identify candi-date solutions to relieve the congestions and to expedite the flow of traffic. f 0 -
~
O B-3 END Rev. 0
d
, i 7
APPENDIX C Traffic Simulation Model: I-DYNEV 1 I l
- - ~ . - - . - - - . . . _ _ _ . _ _ _ _ _ , _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ NW w' W y- M* , , , _. , __
Appendix C: Traf fic Simulation Model: I-DYNEV in) (# A model, named I-DYMEV, is an adaptation of the TRAFLO Level II simulation model, developed by KLD for the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) , with extensions in scope to ac-commodate all types of facilities. This model produces an extensive set of cutput MOE as shown in Table C-1 The traffic stream is described in terms of a set of link-specific statistical flow histograms. These histograms (Figure C-1) describe the platoon structure of the traffic streau on each net-work link. The simulation logic identifies five types of histo-grams: e The ENTRY histogram which describes the platoon flow at the upstream end of the subject link. This histo-gram is simply an aggregation of the appropriate OUTPUT turn-movement-specific histograms of all feeder links. e The INPUT histograms which describe the platoon flow pattern arriving at the stop line. These are obtained by first disaggregating the ENTRY histogram into turn-movement-specific component ENTRY histograms. Each such component is modified t'o account for the platoon () dispersion which results as traffic traverses the link. The resulting INPUT histograms reflect the specified turn percentages for the subject link. e The SERVICE histogram which describe the service rates for each turn movement. These service rhtes reflect the type of control device servicing traffic on this approach; if it is a signal, then this histogram re- , flects the specified movement-specific signal phasing.- A separate model was developed to estimate service , rates for each turn movement, given that the control l is.GO. e The QUEUE histograms'which describe the time-varying ebb and growth of the queue formation at the stop line. l These histograms are derived from the interaction of the respective IN histograms with the SERVICE histograms. e The OUT histograms which descr.ibe the pattern of traf-fic discharging from the subject link. Each of the IN histograms is transformed into an OUT histogram by the ( control applied to the subject link. Each of these OUT , l histograms is added into the (aggregate) ENTRY histogram of its receiving link. C-1 Rev. 0
m Table C-1: Measures of Effectiveness output by I-DYNEV Messuro Units Travel . Vehicles-Miles and Vehicle-Trips Moving time vehicle-Minutes - Delay time Vehicle-Minutes Total travel time vehicle-Minutes Efficiency:. moving time / total travel time Percent Mean travel time per vehicle Seconds , , , Hean delay per vehicle Seconds - Mean delay per vehicle-mile Seconds / Mile
. Mean speed Miles / Hour Mean occupancy Vehicles Mean saturation ,
Percent vehicle stops Percent These data are provided for each network link and are also aggregated over the entire network. / o - C-2 Rev. 0
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0 10 20 30 40 Times Sec. I e I Figure C-1: Statistical representation of the traffic stream' platoon structure. il l O . 1 i i )' C-3 Rev. O i
1 l i-s Note that this approach provides the I-DYdbV model with the (f) ability to identify the characteristics of each turn-movement-specific component of the traffic stream. Each component is serviced at a different saturation flow rate as is the case in the real world. Furthermore, the I-DYNEV logic will be able to recognize when one component of the traffic flow is encoun-tering saturation conditions even if the others are not. Algorithms provide estimates of delay and stops reflecting the interaction of the IN histograms with the SERVICE histograms. The I-DYNEV logic also provides for properly treating spillback conditions reflecting queues extending from one link into its upstream feeder links. A valuable feature of I-DYNEV is its ability to internally generate functions which relate mean speed to density on each link, given user-specified estimates of free-flow speed and saturation service rates for each link. Such relationships are essential in order to simulate traffic operations on freeways and rural roads, where the signal control does not exist or - where its effect is not the dominant factor in impeding traffic flow. All traffic simulation models are data-intensive. Table C-2 outlines the input requirements of the I-DYNEV Model. In order to apply the I-DYNEV Model, the physical traffic environment must be specified by the user. This input data describes: e Topology of the roadway system . e Geometries of each roadway component e Channelization of traffic on each roadway component e Motorist behavior which, in aggregate, determines the operational performance of vehicles in the system I e Specif18ation of the traffic control devices and i their operational characteristics ! e Traffic volumes entering and leaving the roadway system o Traffic composition To provide an efficient framework for defining these spe-l cifications, the physical environment is represented as a net- ! work. The unidirectional links of the network generally represent I roadway components: either urban streets or freeway segments. A The nodes of the network generally represent urban intersections (_/ of points along the freeway where a geometric properti changes i (e.g. , a lane drop, change in grade or ramp.) l C-4 gey, o
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(
) Figure C-2 is au example of a network representation. The freeway is defined by the sequence of links, (1,2), (2,3), ...,
(5,6). Links (8000,1) and (7,8002) are Entry and Exit links, respectively. An arterial extends from node 7 to node 15 and is partially subsumed within a grid network. The development of the I-DYNEV model followed directly after DYNEV was completed. The perceived need for I-DYNEV was based upon the requirement for a model having all the demonstrated capabilities of DYNEV, but one which consumed less computer time and storage. The major distinction betwecn DYNEV and I-DYNEV is that the latter model directly calculates the integral of the histograms , described earlier (see Figure C-1), instead of computing the amoli-tudes of each histogram slice, as does DYNEV. One other difference is that in I-DYNEV, vehicles which cannot travel along their assigned evacuation route due to excessive congestion will divert to another, alternative evacuation route if the latter is not congested. In. all other respects, the two models are either identical (e.g., the input and output software) or are very similar, with any differences reflecting the major distinction described above.
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This major distinction result's in software code which consumes significantly less storace for I-DYNEV than for DYNEV, reflecting the elimination of large arrays containing the amplitude values of each histogram slice. The reduced computational burden is reflected in almost a three-fold reduction in computing time. A thorough comparison was made between the results generated by the two models. It was found that all pairs of results, DYNEV and I-DYNEV, were virtually identical for a wide variety of network configurations and traffic demand levels. Note that the two models require the identical input stream and produce identical output formats. On the basis of these result's, I-DYNEV is used exclusively for the EESF system, to calculate evacuation time estimates. () - C-5 Rev. 0
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Table C- 2: , O, Input requirements'for the I-DYNEV Model GEOMETRICS Links defined by upstream downstream node numbers. Links lengths. - Number of lanes,(up to 6). Turn pockets. Grade. Network topology defined in terms of target nodes for each receiving link . TRAFFIC VOLUMES On all entry links and sink / source nodes strstified by vehicle type: auto, car pool, bus, truck. Link-specific turn movements g O-D matrix 8 Trip Table) .
/
TRAFFIC CONTRCL SPECIFICATIONS Traffic signals: . link-specific, turn movement specific. Control may be fixed-tic.e or traffic-actuated.
. 1 Stop and Yield signs. .
Right-turn-on-red (RTOR) .
- Route diversion specifications.
Turn restrictions. Lane control (i.e., lane closure) .
- i DRIVER'S AND OPERATIONS CHARACTERISTICS Driver's (vehicle-spec 1fle) response mechanisms:
, free-flow speed, aggressiveness, discharge headway.
Link-specific mean speed for free-flowing (unimpeded) traffic. Vehicle-type operational characteristics: acceleration, deceleration. Such factors as bus route designation, bus station location, dwell , time, headway, etc. i C-6 Rey, o l
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k]/ Entry, Exit nodes are numbered in the form, 8XXX * (sa p
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i Figure C-2: i Representative analysis network. C-7 END Rev. 0 ,
i r 6 APPENDIX D . Detailsd Description of Study Procedure l 0 f I l
e es- *t -* s Appendix D: Detailed Description of Study Procedure i l This appendix describes the activities to be performed in order _to produce accurate estimates of evacuation times on the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) for a nuclear power plant. The individual steps of this effort are represented as a. flow diagram in Figure D-1. Each numbered step in the description which follows corresponds to the numbered ele- , ment in this flow diagram. Step 1 The first activity is to obtain data defining the spatial distribution of population within the i EPZ. Specifically, obtain the population in each of 160 cells,of a polar grid which is centered at the nuclear station, and consists of 22.5' sections and rings spaced one mile apart. Transient population characteristics must also be j estimated on the same basis. -
)
Step 2 The next activity is to examine a large-scale map of the EPZ. This map enables one to identify the access () roads from each residential development to the adjoining elements of the analysis roadway network. This information [ is ,necessaary in order to assign generated trips to the ' correct links of the network. This map also enables one i to represent the geometrics of complex intersections properly in terms of their network configuration. Step 3 With this information absorbed, the next step is to conduct a physical survey of the roadway system within the EPZ. The purpose of this survey is to determine the ' necessary measurements of roadway length and of the number of lanes on each link, the channelization of these lanes, whether or not there were any turn restrictions or special l treatment of traffic at intersections and to gain the nec-essary insight required for e~stimating realistic values of ! roadway capacity. At each major intersection, take note of l the traffic control device which was installed. In addition, l determine whether or not, under emergency evacuation condi-tions, it would be possible to employ paved shoulders as an
. additional lano in the event such additional capacity was required.
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,f - \~ Get Demographic Data i
I I -7 Study'Large-Scale Map of EP:: II 3 Survey the Roadway System within the EPZ U 4 Develop Network , Representation 4
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If 5 Estimate Link capacities and Locate Centroids II 6 Create the Input Stream for the Traffic Assignment Model If 7 Debug the Input Stream U
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O l Figu re D-1. Flow Diagram of Activities l D-2
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, , - - , , , , , , - , , , .- . - . . , . . , . . , . . . . . _ - - . - , , - , . . , , , . . . . -,,e,,. -,....._.-..-.-,,.,,,,,,.,-.,,-,.-,_,,.,-,,,.v..,. . - , , , - - , . - -
I o U 3 Execute the
= Traffic Assignment Model U 9 Examine Traffic Assignment Output (Iterate) h esu s are z B.
/ Satisfactory Changes Needed U 10 Develop Control Treatments and/or Modify Trip Table to Improve Results U
11 Modify the Input Stream , to Reflect the -
, Changes of Step 10 Figure D-1. Flow Diagram of Activitics (cont . )
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U 12 Complete Input Stream for the Traffic Simulation Model by Incoroporating Traffic Assignment Outputs U 13 Execute the y Simulation Model . U 14 Examine Traffic Simulation Output No Changes to 17 Resdits are the Traffic Document (Iterate)n / Satisfactory- Assignment Results; Changes Outputs Needed U 15 Develop Control Treatments l and/or Modify Trip Table These Results g to Improve Results Reflect Changes . Made in Step 15* F 16 ' 5 Modify the Input Stream to Reflect Om 3 Changes *of Step 15 , (I erate) 1 [ l i Piguro D-1. Plow Diagram of Activities (concl.) O D-4 Rev. O l _.---,_1___.--. _______. _._._ _. _ - - -
)
( Step 4. With this information, develop the evacuation network representation of the physical roadway system. Step 5. With the network drawn, proceed to estimate the capacities of each link and to locate the centroids where trips would be generated during the evacuation process and then enter the analysis network. . Step _6. With all the information at hand, it is tine
. to perform the effort of creating the input stream for the Traffic Assignment Model. This model was designeil to be compatible with the Traffic simulation Model used later in
'. the project, in the sense that the input format required for one model was entirely compatible with the input format re-guired by the other, thus avoiding duplication of effort. This step in the procedure is labor-intensive. Fortunately, this input stream need only be developed once; any changes made can be implen'ented quickly and at small cost. Thus, it is possible to eaccute these models on different scenari,os with very little effort needed to modify the basic input stream to represent the specific attributes of each scenario. Step 7. Af ter creating the input stream by using PRLOYN, ON execute the Traffic Assignment Model. This computer program contains upwards of 1,000 diagnostic inconsistencies and any other improper input. This diagnostic software produces messages which assist the user in identifying the source of the problem and guide the user in preparing the necessary corrections. Step 8. With tne input stream free of error, execute the Traffic Assignmont Model. The Traffic Assignment program is a very efficient software code. Step 9. The next activity is to examine critically the statistics produced by the Traffic Assignment program. This is a labor-intensive activity, requiring the direct partici-pation of skilled engineers who possess the necessary practical experience to interpret the results and to determine the causes of any problems reflected in the result. b a D-5 Rev. 0
f'N Essentially, the approach.is to identify'those "hot ( ,) spots" in the network which represent locations where con-gested conditions are extreme. It is then necessary to identify the cause of this congestion. This cause can take many forms, either as excess demand due to improper routing, as a shortfall of capacity, or as a quantitative error in the way the physical system was represested in the input stream. The examination of the Traffic Assignment, output leads to one of two conclusions: e The results are as satisfactory as could be expected at this stage'of the analysis process, or e Treatments must be introduced in order to improve the flow of traffic. This decision requires, of cource, the application of the user's judgment based upon the results obtained in previous . applications of the Traffic Assignment Model and a comparison of the results of this last case with the previous ones. In the event the results are satisfactory, in the opinion of the (-) user then the proceas continues with the exercise of the simu-lation model in Step 12. Otherwise, proceed to Step 10. Step 10. There are many "treatments" available to the user in resolving such problems. These treatments range from decisions to reroute the traffic by imposing turn restrictions where they can produce significant improvements in capacity, changing the control treatment at critical intersections so as to provide improved service for one or more movements, or , in prescribing specific treatments for channelizing the flow so as to expedite the movement of traffic along major roadway systems or changing the trip table. Such "treatments" take the form of modifications to the original input stream. We then perform the modifications to the input stream, reflecting the control treatments described above. As indicated previously, such modifications are implemented quickly to the extent that more than one execution of the computer program is possible in a single day. Step 11. As noted above, the physical changes to the input stream must be implemented in order to reflect the changes
% in the control treatments undertaken in Stop 10. At the com-pletion of this activity, the process returnq to Step 8 where the Traffic Assignment Model is once again executed.
D-6 Rev. 0 1 -
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/~T Step 12. The output of the Traffic Assignment Model ks includes the computed turn movements for each link. If the user is executing the 'craf fic Assignment and the Traf fic Simu-lation models in a single run, then this data is automatically accessed by the latter model. If the simulation model is executed separately, the user must modify the iraut stream for the Traffic Assignment model by beginning in the turn-movement data, using PREDYN.
Step 13_. After the input stream has been debugged, the simulation model is exccuted to provide the user with detailed estimates, expressed as statistical measures of effectiveness (MOE) , which describe the detailed performance of traf fic operations on each link of the network. Step 14. In this step, the detailed output of the Traffic simulation Model is examined in order to identify once again the problems which exist on the network. The results of the simulation model are extremely detailed and are far more accurate in their ability to describe traffic operations than those provided by the Traffic Assignment Model. Thus, it is possible to identify the cause of the problems by carefully studying the output. . U(T Again, one can implement corrective treatments designed to expedite the flow of traffic on the network in the event that the results are considered to be less efficient than is In the event that changes are needed, possible to achieve. the analysis process proceeds to Step 15. On the other hand, if the results were satisfactory, then one can decide whether it is necessary to return to Step 8 to execute the Traffic Assignment Model once again and repeat the whole process, or to accept the final results as being the "best" that can be achieved within the reasonable constraints of budget and time allotments. Generally, if there are no changes indicated by the activities of Step 14, then we can conclude that all results.were satisfactory, and we can then proceed to document them in Step 17. Otherwise, we have to return to Step 8 in order to determine the effects of the changes implemented in Step 14 on the optimal routing patterns over the network. This determinntion can only be ascertained by executing the Traffic Assignment Model. ' Step 15. This activity implements the changes in control treatments or in the assignment of destinations associated with () one or more origins in order to improve the flow of traffic over the network. These treatments can also include the consideration of additional roadway segments to the existing analysis network t D-7 Rev. 0
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'x in order to disperse the traffic demand and thus avoid the focusing of traffic demand which can produce high levels of congestion.
Step 16. Once the treatments have been identified, it is necessary to modify the input stream ~accordingly. At the completion of this affort, the procedure returns to Step 13 to execute the simulation model once more. Step 17. The simulation results are then analyzed, ' tabulated and graphed. The results are then documented, as required. e l [ l I I n-8 END Rev. 0
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I O O APPENDIX E: LITERATURE REVIEW s 4_. .
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r 73 APPENDIX E - LITERATURE REVIEW V The purpose of this Appendix is to provide a concise review of literature and data sources used in the development of the ETE for the Davis Besse Station.
- 1. gangus Bureau - 1980 Census, Ottawa County Persona per household 1 2 3 4 5 6+
No of Households 2733 4629 2433 2401 1227 695 Avg. Persons / Household = 2.83 Travel Time to Work (Min) Less than 5 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-29 30-44 45-59 60+ percent 6.8 17.2 16.3 15.1 27.5 16.3 4.2 2.7 Mean travel time = 18.8 minutes - Home to work vehicle occupancy Persons 1 Vuhicle O. 1 2 3 4 5+
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Percent 80.5 14.8 2.9 1.3 0.5 Hean occupancy 1.28 persons / vehicle
- 2. Ottawa Co. Dent. of Health - Marina lists Table E-1 presents a list of Marina's within the EPZ.
- 3. Toledo Metropolitan Area Council of Governmentn TMACOG)
Ottawa County Population Forecasts (1984), Table E-2 presents population forecasts based upon estimates by TMACOG and the Ohio Data Users Center (ODUC). ODUC estimates were available on a countrywide basis only. The 1986 estimates were based on a growth rate which averaged the county wide annualized growth rate obtained from TMACOG and ODUC. This proedure yields a 1986 population increase for the EPZ of 280 people. In terms of evacuation dynamics, this represents approximately 110 vehicles distributed across the EPZt an amount too small to affect the permanent population evacuation time estimate. E-1 Rev. 0
. r c' Tablo E-1. List of Mahdas within. 10 Mile EPZ - Ottcwa County c")
No . ( Marinas 1985 Spac< j BAY TOWNSHIP
/ JOHNNY'S BOAT HARBOR, 3930 W. Johnny's Place, Port Clinton, OH 43452 (George Rinas) .............................. 40
; PORTACE COVE TRAILER PARK AND MARINA 3 NUGENTS CANAL POINT MARINA, 3131 W. Da$31 Findla yne St,Por St eet, P rt Cl CNnton, gH (Jogntgc a n OH eer)43452 (Willard E. Roth)
............... p CARROL!,TOWNSHTl' at AL'S HARBOR. 9115 W. Long Beach Road, Oak Harbor, OH 43449 (Albert F. Brunkhorst) ................................ 7t iBROWN'S MARINA, 4305 N. Rider Road, Ock Harbor, OH 43449 (Lawrence Brown) ........................................ 21
( E & C MARINA, 4620 N. Toussaint Road, Oak Harbor, OH 43449 (Donna Rose Smith) .................................... 1( 7 E*SI SIDE MARINA, 10221 W. Locus t Point Road, Oak Harbor, OH 43449 (Vince Lamberjack) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 371 p FENWICK MARINA , S t Rt 2 & Rt 19 Oak Harbor, OH 43449 (John F. Gradel) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45C 1 FLORO'S LITTLE PIACE, 4627 N . Thompson Road , Oak Harbor, OE 43449 (Keith Floro) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25C
,, GREEN COVE MARINA, 6450 N. Russell Road, Oak Harbor, OH 43449 (James Green) ...................................... 46C u INTAND MARINA, 10655 W. St Rt 2, Oak Harbor, OH 43449 (Richard Steinman) ......................................... 132
, SAND BEACH MARINA, 9115 W. Long Beach, Oak Harbor, OH 43449 (John E. Hankison) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7C
,) TURTLE CREEK MARINA, 6338 N. Ihanphrey Rd, Oak Harbor, OH 43449 (William H. Gyde) ................................. 75 d WIIXINS BCAT IA CH, 43 5 N. Rider R d On Harborg OH 43449 ........ t.
d C 10 75 W. Locust o
. Toussaint K ,
0k bo
.H (GdrghisErebhard
- t. OH Mabel 3449 Wilkins (Kenneth )J . Ke is e r} . . . . . . . . . . .
I! . . ERIE TOWNSHIP
" . "/JACKNIFE MARINA, 1350 W. Richey Roa d, Port Clinton, OH 43452 (James Bergman) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 250 ff1AKEFRONT MARINA, 1805 W. Lakeshore Drive, Port Clinton, OH 43452 (John S. Loyd) ................................. 296
/fRIVERFRONT,1170 W. Richey Road, Port Clinton, OH 43452 (Jane Hine) .............................................. 38 2e RIVER RETREAT CAMP & MARINA, 3830 W. Harbor Road, Port Clinton, OH 43452 (Dale R. Vance) ........... ............. 64
, 2/ RIVERSIDE MARINA, 1090 W. Richey Road, Port Clinton, OH 43452 (Rebert Mauger, Jr.) ............................... 100 l l ILVACATIONIAND MARINA & R.V. PARK,1220 Richey Road, Port Clinton, OH 43452 (Vacationland Enterprises) . .. ......... . 116 i *o WHITE CAPS MARINA , 2186 W. Lakeshore Drive , Port Clin ton, OH 43452 (William Angel) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 l[ .15.y WILLOW BEACH liGINA, 3500 W. Willow Beach Road, Port Clinton, OH 43452 (Frel Pachasa) ............................ 35 l o g WITTERHAVEN MARINA AND CAMPGROUND, 1100 Richey Road, Port Clinton, OH 43452 (Daniel E. Witter) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .' 60 PORT CLINTON g o BRAND 'S MARINA, 451 Lakeshore Drive , Port Clinton, OH 43452 (Darrell A . B rand) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 crCLINTON REEF MARINA, 545 W. Lakeshore Drive, Port Clinton, OH 43452 (Delta Shores Dev. Co.) ...................... 400 2V JEREMY BOATYARD, 403 Lakeshore Drive, Port Clinton, OH 43452 (Lakeshore Drive Dev. Corp.) ........................ 151
-A PORT CLINTON YACHT CLUB, River Front, Port Clinton, OH 43452 (Port Clinton Yacht Club) ........................... 127 3e PORT CLINTON YACHT SALES, 3 Monroe Street, Port Clinton, OH 43452 (Rober t H. Bonhard) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 SALEM TOWNSHIP .
l p CHET'S PIACE, 7518 Wes t S t Rt 163, Oak Harbor, OH 43449 (Paul W. Provonsha) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 l p RIVERVIEW MARINA, 8980 W. S t Rt 163, Oak Earbor, OH 43449 (Jerry Rus s) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
i i
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i si a ' Table-E-1 List'of Marinas within 10-mile EPZ Lucas County (Concluded) Syuces 1 Wards Canal Marina 432
- Cooley Canal Marina 1538 1
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i O O O , Table E-2. Ottawa County Population Estimates TMACOG Estimates ODUC Estimates 1985 Annualized 1985 Annualized 1980 Forecast Growth Forecast Growth 1986 ! Cgnsus TMACOG(3) Rate (%) ODUC (4 ) Rate (%) (Est.) Ottawa County 40076 41431 0.67 39652 -0.21 (.23%)
- ) Cities Port Clinton 7223 7317 0.26 7323 Places Oak Harbor 2678 2719 0.30 Rocky Ridge 457 466 0.39 463 i
; g Townships 1- Bay 940 1022 1.69 953 i
j Benton (1) 1989 2034 0.45 2017 Carroll 1706 1802 1.10 1730 I Erie 1518 1572 0.70 1539 i!arris (2) 1417 1458 0.57 1437 Salem 2256 2376 1.04 2287 - ) y TOTAL 20184 20766 .57 20464 l (1) Benton Township - Assume 100% of population in EPZ j o (2) Harris Township - Assume 25% of population in EPZ ] (3) TMACOG - Toledo Matropolitan Area Council of Governments 3 (4) ODUC - Ohic Data User Center
.. . _ . - - _ - . . _ _ . _- - -. ... ~
- 4. Public Recreational Facilitleg: The major public O recreational facilities in the EPZ are listed below.
Existing Visitors / Day H22 Facility Townshin Facilities hyg2 Max 2 1 Ottawa National Benton- Wildlife N/A 500 Wildlife Area Jerusalem Refuge (419) 898-0014 2 Crtne Creek Bonton Hunting, N/A 300 Wildlife Experi- Fishing ment Station (419) 898-0960 r 3 Crane Creek Benton Beach, 5000 14000 State Park Swimming, (419) 898-2495 4 Magee Marsh Carroll, Hunting, N/A 300 Wildlife Area & Jerusalem Boat Ramp, Metzger Marsh Fishing ~ Wildlife Area 5 Toussaint Creek Carroll Boat Ramp, 40 150 Wildlife Area The major park facility within the EPE is the Crane Creek State Park. According to the previous report, the average summertime daily attendance in this park is approximately 2500 with a peak attendance of nearly 5000. There are no overnight facilities at the park and it is closed at dark. I l The FEMA letter to ODSA dated December 9, 1985 indicates that the single day peak attendance for the park has been 14,000. A telephone conversation with the Park Manager confirmed this number. According to him, the averaga summertime attendance at the park is 5000. On some hot weekends it could reach as much as 10,000 and on long weekends they have had as many as 14,000 visitors. He also indicated that there are nearly 2500 parking spaces in the park and people also park on grass or elsewhere if tney cannot find parking in designated spots. The other park facilities in the area are considerably smaller and have corresponding smaller attendance.
- 5. Ottawa Rea(2)al Plannina Commission l List of motels in the EPZ:
Port Clinton Number of Units Beachfront Motel NA f () Boatel Lakeland Motel 3 boats 33 i E-5 Rev. 0 l
I LK Motel 66
% Phils Inn 19 Old Island House 36 Outside of Port Clinton Angel Majestic Motel 10 Angel's White cap 22 Edgewater Motel 6 Oak Harbor Hotel _11 Total 223 units
- 6. Stone & Webster Enaineerina - Letter to Ron Varley, January 13, 1986.
- Population Estimates for Jerusalem TWP
Residents: 987 permanent, 246 seasonal Transient: 1467 (includes marinas and park areas) ,
- 7. RPS Cord. - Hemo of June 19, 1986; Ottawa Regional Planning Commission memo 12/11/85 -
(} I. Ottawa County A. Schools: TownshiD Enrollment Grades Carroll - Carroll Elementary 107* 1 to 5 Oak Harbor High 602* 9 to 12 Oak Harbor Jr. High 429* 6 to 8 Salem ,R.C. Waters Elementary 443* K to 5 Riverview School for Children 25 max. St. Boniface ~ Catholic 108* K to 6** i l Benton - Ro:ky Ridge Elementary 104* 1 to 5 Graytown Elementary 162* K to 5 Port Clinton High 843*** 9 to 12 I Bataan Elementary 437*** K to 6 Portage - Jefferson Elementary 321*** K to 6 Port Clinton Junior 40l*** 7 to 8 Immaculate Conception 236*** NOTES: * - Based on October 1985 enrollment
** - Next year will be grades 1 to 5 O *** - Based on end of year (1985-86) enrollment.
E-6 Rev. O
o B. Nursina Homes Riverview Nursing Home No. of Beds = 166* occupancy = 85% Edgewood Manor Nursing Center No. of Beds = 100** occupancy = 85% NOTES: * - Of this number, approximately 10% can walk, 60% use a wheelchair / walker, and 30% are bedridden.
** - Of this number, approximately 10% can walk, 80% use a wheelchair / walker, and 10% are bedridden. Total available space is for 100 residents.
C. Riverview Industries Clients = 102* NOTE: * - These mentally handicapped adults, of which approximately 12 are in wheelchairs. D. H.B. Macruder Hospital Bed Capacity = 130* NOTE: *- Taken from the Ohio Plan for Response to Radiation Emergencies At Licensed Facilitics, Section II, Part L, Medical and Public Health Support, dated 9/30/85. O E. Ottawa County Jail Inmates = 48* NOTE: *- T:lis capacity may be exceeded slightly at certain times of the year. On the average, 30 to 35 inmates are present at any given time. II. Lucas County A. None i l O E-7 Rev. 0
L Evacuation Time Estimates () 1987 Annual Update Discussions with the Ottawa County Department of Building Standards and Inspection have indicated a total of 42 new, residential buildings contructed in the County in 1986. Assuming single-family construction and the average household size of 2.83 persons per household, this data implies an additional 120 persons in the permanent resident population group. Using a value of 2.6 persons per evacuating vehicle implies an additional 46 vehicles would be generated by these additional people. Since the vehicles generated would be allocated to different evacuation subareas in accordance with the location of construction sites, the addition of these people to the existing EPZ population would not affect Evacuation Time. Estimates. The area in the vicinity of Lake Erie has spawned a number of new condominium de.valopments. Although most of this development occured prior to the 1986 ETE data collection and therefore is included in current population estimates, it is recommended that a review of condominium development be - undertaken during the 1988 annual review. The purpose of this review would ba to include up-to-dato estimates of the number of apartments available and projections of future growth. (3 over the weekend of July 4, 1987, data collection was U undertaken to confirm previous estimates of visitors to Crane Creek State Park. Traffic counts on the Friday, Saturday, and 4 Sunday in 1987 indicate a total of 6509 vehicles entered and left the park. Counts for the same period of time in 1986 yielded an estimate of 12754 vehicles entering and leaving the park. Consequently, the 1986 population estimates remain a valid estimate of the peak number of people expected at the park. Observations of vehicles entering the park yield the following estimates of vehicle occupancy: Passenaar Cars 3.13 persons / vehicle Vans / Pickup Trucks 3.43 persons / vehicle This compares with the estimate of 2.8 persons per vehicle used previously. The 1987 data indictas that there might be up to 850 more people in the park than previously estimated (2600 vehs. x (3.13 - 2.8)). It should be noted that the total number of vehicles generated by the park (2600 vehs.) has not been modified. Hence no changes to the ETE were observed. O E-8 Rev. 1
i I
- c Analysis of license plate information in Crane Creek State d Park have indicated the following: l l
Place of 1987 1987 1986 Oricin Count Percentace Percentaae Ottawa Co. 15 6.5 6.4 Lucca Co. 114 49.4 50.9 Wooct Co. 21 9.1 12.6 Sandusky Co. 12 5.2 6.9 Erie Co. 4 1.7 1.2 Other Ohio 51 22.1 15.6 Michigan 7 3.0 3.6 Other States 7 3.0 2.8 231 100.0 100.0 Note that the data collected in 1987 confirms the distribution of places of origin for park users. , O O E-9 Rev. 1 END
O APPENDIX F Telephone Survey Instrument O f 4 O
.~
ncuu, m/ name as end I'm COL. 1.1234567890 working on a survey being made for COL. 2 1234567890 First Market Research Corporation of _ COL. 3 1234567890 Boston designed to identify local COL. 4 le2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 ('} s m ,/ travel patterns in your area. The infernation obtained will be used in COL. 5 1234567890 a traffic enginee.fing study and in Sex COL.' 8 connection with preparedness plans 1 nale for the Davis-Besse Power Station. 2 Female INTERVIEWER: ASK TO SPEAK TO THE HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD OR THE SPOUSE OF THE HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD.
- 1. In what township or community do you live? (DO NOT READ.)
Port Clinton Bay township Oak Harbor Dencon township , Rocky Ridge Carroll township Erie township Harris township
'N Salam township
- 2. In total, how many cars, or other vehicles COL. _11 are usually available to the household? 1 One (DO NOT READ ANSWERS.) 2 Two 3 Three 4 Four i
5 Five 6 Six 7 Seven 8 Eight 9 Hine or More 0 Zero (None) X Refused , 3. How many people usually live in this COL. 12 col. 13 ) hous ehold? (DO NOT READ ANSWERS.) 1 One 0 Ten ( 2 Two 1 Eleven 3 Three 2 Twelve 4 Four 3 Thirteen 5 Five 4 Fourteen
/' 's 6 Six 5 Fifteen '\,,) 7 Seven 6 Sixteen 8 Eight 7 Seventeen 9 Nine 8 Eighteen l 9 Nineteen or More X Refused F-1 Rev. 0
~ ' -
\
- 4. How many children living in this household go to local public, private, or parochial schoolet (D0 NOT READ ANSWERS.) COL. _14 x) O sero 1 one s Tm 3 Three 4 :*29r L Five 6 Six 7 Seven e Eight 9 Mine or More X Refused Sa. Do you launch a boat from a ramp in Ottawa ca.
Sb. If so, how long, on average does it take for you to return to the ramp and load your boat on its trailer. COL. lt , COL j6, 1 10 min. or less 1 51-55 min. 2 11-15 min. 2 56-60 min. (1 hr.) 3 16-20 min. 3 over 1 kr. but less than 4 21-25 min. 1 hr. 30 min. S 26-30 min. 4 Over i br. JO min. but - 6 31-35 min. less than 2 hre. ' 7 36-40 min. 5 over 2 hre. 6 41-45 min. . i i 9 46-50 min.
'i ')
i
- 6. How many people in the C01.. 17 SRIP TO Y household cessaute to a O sero 11 t job, or to college, at 1 One least 4 times a week? 2 two 3 mroe 7 4 Four or More ,
5 Don't Enow / Refused- -11 , j INTERV!DfER: FOR EACH PER$0er IDENTIFIED IN (41ESTION 6, ASK QUESTIONS 7, 8. 9 5 10
- 1. Thinking about cosmater $1, how doeu that person tasually travel to work or t
college? (REPEAT QUESTION FOR EACM CCNet/rER.) Corsauter 91 Commuter $2 Commuter 93 Commuter 04 COL. . le COL. _19 COL. _ 20 COL. _21 Rail 1 1 1 1 aus 2 2 2 2 Walk /aieycle 3 3 3 3 Driver Car / Van / Truck 4 4 4 4 Passenger Car / Van / Truck $ 5 $ ,5 Driver Carpool-3 or ante people 6 6 6 6 . ! Passenger Carpool-3 or more 7 7 7 7 p*oPle taxi 8 8 8 8 Refused 9 9 9 9
~
F-2 Pav. O
f3467 C. hhat le the name of the city, township, or consuunity in which Consuter el b V works or attends school 7 (REPEAT QUr.ST!0N FOR EACH Cof94tJTER.) (FILL IN AsswrR.) COMMLJTER 91 C0fetyTER 92 C0peet/ITA 03
. COMMUTER 64 .
City / Town state City / Town state City / Town state
+
City / Town state COL.22 COL.2 3 COL.24 COL.2S COL.26 COL.27 COL.28 COL.29 COL.30 o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 COL. M COL. M COL. M 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 1 1 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 G 8
! 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9
, 9 9 9 9 9 9 (CCCC 999 FOR MORE titan 1 TOWW CR VARIQUS STs4tS ABOVE) e.
*;,p xt-st.'y het tens ees it 9.o Cor amer #1 to travel twea f rom work or a llegel (RusAf WISTION 108 EACH OkC&TER.) (Do hof ar.A0 ANsutts.)
Co m itt #1 CopeWTRA #2 34 COL.35
- Cul. 36 COL. 1 7 Minutes or Less 1 7 6 - 30 Minutes 1~5 Minutes or col.)I6 - 50 Minutti 1
2 6 - 10 Minutes 2 51 - $5 Minutes Less
- 3 11 - 15 Minutes 3 56 - 1 Hour 2 51 - 55 Minutra 16 - 20 Minutes 2 6 - 10 Minutes 3 56 - 1 Hour 4 Over 1 Hour, but 3 11 - 15 Minutes 5 21 - 25 Minutes less than 1 4 Over 1 Hour.
4 16 - 20 Minutes but less alun 6 26 - 30 Minutes Mour 15 Minutes , 5 21 - 25 Minutes 7 31 - 35 Minutse 1 Hour 15 pg 5 Between 1 Hour 6 26 - 30 Minutes Minutes 4 36 - 60 Minutes 15 Minutes and 7. 31 - 35 Minutee V 9 41 - 45 Minutes 1 Nour 30 Minutes 8 36 - 40 Minutes 5 Setween 1 Hour 15 Minutes 6 setween 1 llour 31 9 41 - 45 Minutes and 1 Hour 30 Minutes and 1 Minutes Bour 45 Minutes 6 Between 1 Hour 7 Between 1 Hour 46 . 31 Minutes Minutes and 2 and 1 Hour 45 Hours Minutes 8 Over 2 Hours 7 Setween 1 Hour 9 0 46 Minutes and 2 Hours X Don't Know/ Refused ' 8 Over 2 Hours 9 0 e X Don't Know/ Refused Cot %7rR f 3 Co.4ftfrER f 4 Cut 3$_5 MinutesCOL.J 1 or1Less46 - 50 Minutes COL .,4,0,, 1 5 Minutes Or Col..,4,1_ 1 46 - 50 Minutes 2 6 - 10 Minutes 2 51 - SS Minutes Less 3 !! = 15 Minutes 3 56 - 1 Hour 2 51 - 35 Minutes 4 16 - 20 Minutes 2 6 - 10 Minutes *3 56 - 1 Hour 4 Over 1 Hour, but 3 11 - 35 Minutes 4 Over 1 Hour, 5 21 - 25 Minutes less than 1 4 16 - 20 Minutes 6 26 - 30 Minutes Mour 15 Minutes but less than 7 31 - 35 Minutes 5 21 - 25 Minutes 1 Hour 15 5 Setween 1 Meur 15 6 26 - 30 Minutes Minutes t 36 - to Minutes Minutes and 1 7 3.1 - 35 Minutes i 31 - 45 Minutes Hour 30 Minutes 5 Between 1 Hotr 8 36 - 40 Minutes 15 Minutes 6 Setween 1 Hour 9 .41 - 45 Minutes and 1 Hour 31 Minutes and 30 Minutes 1 Hour 45 Ninutes 6 Setween 1 Mour 7 Between 1 Hour 46 31 Minutes i Minutes and 2 and 1 Hour I Hours 45 Minutes * ! & Over 2 Hours 9 7 Between 1 Hour l 0 46 Minutes l and 2 Hours ; X Don't Know/ Refused 4 Over 2 Hours l 9 ' 0 I Don't Know/ Refused i r_3 m.o
- e. .
l3467 .
- 10. If Cossnuter 11 were notified of an emergency at Davis-Desse while at work or college, wuld that person return home? (REPEAT Qtitsttou ron EACH COMPR17tn.)
ctreevita 01 COMMuna 42 COMMtprta 03
- COL. g sK!P To COL. 4)3 3rtP TO Co!. 44 sute to 1 Yes 10A 1 Yes 10A 1 Yes 10A 2 No 109 2 No los 2 No 108 .
3 Not Eure ICA 3 Not sure 104 3 Not sure 10A l comtrrta e4 ' COL. 4)% SRtP 70 1 Yes 10A 2 No 109 3 Mot Sure 10A , i 10A. Hou long would it take Cossauter il to complete preparation for leaving work or collegu prior to startleg tin
- trip luiswt (REPEAT QUESTION Foa EACH CO R*TER.) '
(Do NOT READ ANSWERS.) I ccm: r. ~ . ore m n s. COL.3, 717.'.4 L C n .,48 Col. . ,4J, ! 1 5 Minutes or 1 46 - 50 Mtnutes 1 3 Minutes 1 46 - 50 Minutri Less 2 51 - SS Minutes or Less 2 31 - 55 Minuts= 2 6 - 10 Minutes 3 SL - 1 Itour 2 6 - 10 Minutes 3 56 - t Move 3 11 - 15 Minutes 4 over 1 Hour, 3 11 - 15 Minutes 4 over i Hour, . 4 16 - 20 Minutes but less than 4 16 - 20 M!autes but lean than. 5 21 - 25 Minutes 1 Mour 15 5 21 - 25 Minutes 1 Hour 15 - 6 26 - 30 Minutes Minutcs 6 26 - 30 Misutes Minutes I F 31 - 35 Minutes 5 Setweea 1 Hour 7 31 - 35 Minutes 5 Between 1 Mour ! 8 36 - 40 Minutes IS Minutes 8 36 - 40 Minutes 15 Minutes 9 41 - 45 Minutes and 1 Mour 9 41 - 45 Minutes and 1 Maur 30 Minutes 30 Minutes . \ 6 Between 1 Hour . 6 letween 1 Hour 31 Minutes 31 Minutes and 1 Mour and 1 Hour 45 Minutes 45 Minutes 7 Between 1 Muur 7 Autween 1 Hour 46 Minutes 46 Minutes and 2 Hours and 2 Hours 8 over 2 Itours 8 over 2 Houre 9 9 0 0 X Don't Know/ X Don't Know/ Refused Refused ComVTr.a #1 Co mVTra #4 COL.~ 50 COL. 31 COL 52 coI,53 l 5 Minutes or 1 46 - 50 Minutes 1 5 Minuten 1 46 - 50 Minutee Less 2 51 - $$ Minutes or Less 2 51 - 55 Minutes 2 6 - 10 Minutes 3 56 - 1 Mour 2 6 - 10 Minutes 3 56 - 1 Hour 3 11 - 15 Minutes 4 Ovut 1 I!our, 3 11 - 15 Minutes 4 Over 1 Hour. 4 16 - 20 Minutes but less than 4 16 - 20 Minutes but less than 5 21 - 25 Minutes 1 Hour 15 5 21 - 25 Minutes 1 Hour 15 6 26 - 30 Minutes Minutes 6 26 - 30 Minutes Minutes 7 31 - 35 Minutes 5 Between 1 Hour ? 31 - 35 Minutes 5 Setween 1 Hour B 36 - 40 Minutes 15 Minutes 8 36 - 40 Minutes 15 Minutes 4 9 41 - 45 Minutes and 1 Hout 9 41 - 45 Minutes and 1 Hour 1 30 Minutes 30 Minutes ; 6 Setween 1 Mour 6 Setween 1 hour 31 Minutes 31 Minutes and 1 Hour and 1 Hour 45 Minutes 45 Minutes 7 Setween 1 Hour 7 Between 1 Hour 46 Minutes 46 Minutes
- and 2 Hours O 8 Over 2 Route 9
and 2 hours 8 Over 2 Hours 9 F 0 0 1 I Don't Know/ X Don't Know/ merused perused - F-4 Fev. 0
b
. . - . . . . . . . . . . .....p...w 44.s 109. Does the family have another vehicle COL. 54 , '
available for evacuation? 1 Yes O 2 ~ 3 Don't Xnow/Ref used
- 11. Hov long would it take the family to pack clothing, secure the house, load the car, and cosplete preparations pior to evacuating the area?
(D0 NCfr READ RESPONSES.) COL. 55 COL. 56 1 Less than 15 min. 1 3 hrs, to 3 hrs. 15 min. 2 15-30 min. 2 3 hrs. 16 min. to 3 hrs. 30 min. 3 31-45 min. 3 3 hrs. 31 min. to 3 hrs. 45 min. 4 46 min. to I hr. 4 3 hrs. 46 min. to 4 hrs. 5 1 hr. to I hr. 15 min. 5 4 hrs to 4 hrs. 15 min. 6 1 hr. 16 min. to 1 hr. 30 min. 6 4 hrs. 16 min. to 4 hrs. 30 min. 7 1 hr. 31 min. to 1 hr. 45 min. 7 4 hrs. 31 min. to 4 hrs. 45 min. 8 1 hr. 46 min. to 2 hrs. 8 4 hrs. 46 min. to 5 hrs. 9 2 hrs. to 2 hrs. 15 min. 9 5 hre. to 5 hrs. 15 min. 0 2 hrs, 16 min, to 2 hrs. 30 min. 0 5 hrs. 16 min. to 5 hrs. 30 min. X 2 hrs. 31 min. to 2 hrs. 45 min. X 5 hrs. 31 min. to 5 hrs. 45 min. Y 2 hrs. 46 min. to 3 hrs. Y 5 hrs'. 46 min, to 6 hrs. COL. 57 1 Don't Know Thank you very much. (PHONE NUMBER CALLED) J G O l F-5 Rev. O END
. . -. .- . . . .. . _ _ =. _ . -- _-_.
1 l 1 l l
. o O ;
APPDOIX G Tabulations of Telephcne Survey Data O 4 l i iud 5 l l I l 1 l l lO I i i
- - - - -- ~
O O O i . 7 PER5045 PER HOUSEHOLD v5 CAR 5 PER HouSEMOLD PER50ses PER bU884ER OF CARS PER MOUSEHOLO HOU5FHOLO ,0 1 2 3 4 TOTAL ( 1 TCTALs 13 30 3 2 1 49 PERCENT: 24.5 41.2 6.1 4.1 2.0 100.0 1 2 TOTALS 1 39 T3 4 5 125 PE R CE NT s 0.8 30.4 55.4 6.4 4.0 100.0 3 TOTALS 0 12 29 9 2 51 PERCENT: 0.0 23.5 54.9 17.6 3.9 109.0 l 4 TOTALS 1 6 41 13 9 TO PERCEATs 1.4 8.6 58.6 18.6 12.9 100.0 o T 5 TOTALS 0 1 15 6 4 26 W PERCENT: C.0 3.8 5 7. T 23.1 15.4 100.0
& TOTALS O 2 6 2 2 12 PERCEmis 0.0 16.T 50.0 16.7 16.T 100.0 7 TCTALs 0 0 0 1 1 2 PER CE mis 0.0 0.0 50.0 0.0 50.0 100.0 S TOTAL: 0 1 O O O 1 PERCENT 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 .
L 9 TOTAL: 0 0 0 0 0 0 ( , PERCEmTs Lo 0.0 C.0 00 0.0 100.0 ( <E
- 10 TOTALS 0 0 0 0 0 0 PERCEmis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 L
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O O O I LOCATION-SPECIFIC STATISTICS ) TOWN PEOPLE ChtLOREh CCMMUTERS VEHICLES RETURNEES NON-RETURN UN SUR E NO CA9 i ____ -- ________ -- _ ________ - - f PCRT CLINTON 380 77 147 266 106 34 9 7 OAK HARBOR 175 35 70 117 37 22 9 4 } ROCKY RIDGE 5 2 1 2 1 0 0 3 I BENTON T CW NSHIP 80 18 34 56 17 12 5 0 CARRCLL TOWNSHIP 1+0 30 54 101 29 18 6 2 Y ERIE TOWNSHIP 14 8 4 7 4 0 0 0 l SALEM T CWNS HI P 163 46 66 109 36 23 8 2 i J NunaER OF COMMUTERS WORKING WITHIM EPZ= 226
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l 1 l O APPENDIX H Estimation of Persons per Vehicle for Permanent Population b O
c This Appendix details the computation of the average number of people per vehicle expected during an evacuation. The data used (]) in this analysis was obtained from the 1980 Census and from the Telephone survey. Figure H-1 presents estimates of household size distribution in the Davis Besse EPZ. Figure H-2 presents a breakdown of auto ownership by household size. These data were obtained through an - analysis of the telephone survey results. Exhibit H-1 presents the computational procedures used to estimate vehicle occupancy. In the computation of number of cars used in Exhibit H-1, the fraction is the percent of households having the indicated number of cars. l r r O O H-1 Rev. O I
l-fl. (37) m C e4 o (21) 4 e m o O . en i 3 (15) (15) o l0 I o (8) a a (5) 8 w o 4 1 2 3 4 5 6+ Number of Persons per Household Average Household Size: 2.94 l Figure Il-1. Household Size Within Davis Besse Station EPZ O 1 l l Rev. 0 l
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EXHIBIT H-1 h- Estimation of Persons Der Vehicle for the Evacuation of Permanent Residents Case 1: Assume (a) All households with 4 or fewer persons will ride in one car, if a car is available. (b) Households with 5 or more persons will use 2 cars, if 2 cars are available. If not, they will use 1 car, if available. Household Number of Number of Number of size Households Vehicles Used Evacuees using (Persons) (1) For Evacuation (2) Private Vehicles (3) 1 49 (0. 74) (49) (1) = 36 36 I 2 125 (0. 99) (125) (1) = 124 248 3 51 (1.00) (51) (1) = 51 153 4 70 (0. 99) (70) (1) = 69 276 - 5 26 (0. 04 ) (26) (1) + (0. 96) (26) (2) = 51 130 6+ 15 (0.20) (15) (1) + (0. 80) (15) (2) = 27 108 (4) [} 336 358 Add the number of transit-dependent who will ride-share (See Section 9) 11 (5) Average vehicle occupancy: 972/358 = 2.72 972 (1) Ref. Telephone Survey (2) To calculate the number of vehicles used for each group of households: a) Multiply the proportion of households within the group that will use one vehicle, by the number of households in that group. b) Multiply the proportion of households within the group that will use two vehicles, by the number of households in that group and by the number of cars used (2), c) Add the values obtained in a) and b). l (3) Product of Household Size, Number of Households with one or more vehicles available. (4) Based on average household size of 7.2 persons. l (5) 50 percent of the value in Table 9-5 less Lucas County estimate, divided by the sample factor. () H-4 Rev. 0
. EXHIBIT H-1 (concluded)
Estimation of Persons Per Vehicle for the Evacuation of Permanent Residents Case 2: Assume (a) All households with 3 or fewer people will use 1 car, if available. (b) Half of all households with 4 persons will take 2 cars, if available; the balance will take 1 car. (c) Households with 5 or more persons will use 2 cars, if 2 cars are available. If not, they will use 1 car, if available. Household Number of Number of size Number of Vehicles Used Evacuees using (Persons) HSMfeholdq For Evacuation Private Vehicles, 1 49 (0.74) (49) (1) = 36 36 . 2 125 (0.99) (125) (1) = 124 248 3 51 (1.00) (51) (1) = 51 153 4 70 (0. 09) (70) (1) + (0. 09) (70) (0.5) (1) + O 5 26 (0. 09) (70) (0. 5) (2) = (0. 04) (2 6) (1) + 101 276 (0.9 6) (2 6) (2) = 51 130 6+ 15 (0. 20) (15) (1) + (0. 80) (15) (2) = 27 108 336 390 Add the number of people who ride-share. 11 (See Section 9) 972 l Average vehicle occupancy: 972/393 = 2.49 For planning purposes, we will adopt a somewhat conservative estimate of 2.6 persons / car. t O H-5 Rev. 0 END
O 4 APPENDIX I - Traffic Control Points O p P O
g3 Traffic Control Points identified in this appendix contain s_) estimates of required manpower and equipment. These estimates should be considered advisory only. Additional manpower and/or revisions to the equipnent list might be warranted after review by the appropriate law enforcement agencies responsible for implementing the TCPs in time of emergency. Traffic Control Points may be established on a priority basis should evacuation be required. Primary emphasis should be given to the activation of Priority 1 locations. Priority 2 locations should be activated as manpower becomes available. Tables I-l through I-3 present cross reference listings of TCP's, responsible agencies, and manpower and equipment
- estimates. Figures I-l and I-2 present maps on which are shown i TCP locations. Following the tables and figures are the set of Traffic Control Point drawings.
It should be noted that where the traffic control drawings indicate the need to close a lane, the appropriate placement of a police vehicle will reduce the need for traffic cones. It is likely that this set of Traffic Control Points includes locations identified in previous planning efforts as Access Control Points. Traffic Control Points which are not also Access Control Points may be abandoned after the volume of evacuating
,rT traffic has fallen to a low level. Those control points which U coincide with Access Control Points must be maintained after the volume of evacuating traffic has fallen to a low level.
In addition to the access and traffic control points, a number of additional route guidance signs should be used to direct evacuees toward reception centers. Specifically, at the the intersection of Route 579 and Wildacre Road a sign should be placed directing traffic north onto Wildacre Rodd. Additional signs should be placed to direct evacuees from Wildacre Rd. to North Curtice Road at Front St. An additional traffic control point should be placed at Route 2 and N. Curtice Road to direct traffic towards the reception center. O I-l Rev. 1
Table I-1. Sumnary of Traffic Control Points O Manpower Equipment Required Subarea T.CE Priority Recuired Cones Barricades 2 2-1 1 1 3 0 3 3-1 1 1 5 0 4 4-1 2 1 6 0 4-2 1 1 6 0 5 5-1 1 1 6 0 5-2 1 2 6 0 5-3 2 2 3 0 6 6-1 1 1 3 0 6-2 1 2 17 0 6-3 1 1 4 0 8 8-1 1 2 0 13 9 9-1 1 1 0 0 . 9-2 2 1 0 0 9-3 2 (summer only) 1 3 0 9-4 1 1 3 0 9-5 1 2 0 0 h- 9-6 1 3 33 2 11 11-1 1 1 3 0 11-2 1 2 6 0 11-3 1 1 0 0 11-4 1 1 3 0 11-5 1 1 6 0 Catawba C-1 2 1 4 0 C-2 1 0 0 4 Sandusky S-1 1 3 12 4 S-2 2 0 0 3 Oregon 0-1 2 1 0 2 Lake Twp. L-1 2 1 0 0 i O l I-2 Rev. O l
Table I-2. Preliminary Assignment of Traffic Control Posts O to Manning Agency Personnel Acenav Traffic Control Posts Empyjj3gg L Ottawa County Sheriff 2-1, 3-1, 4-1, 5-1, 6-1, 6-2, 6-3, 8 Oak Harbor Police 5-2, 5-3 4 Ohio State Highway 4-2, 8-1, 9-6, 11-1, Patrol C-1, C-2, S-2 8 Port Clinton Police Department 9-1, 9-2, 9-3, 9-4, 9-5 6 l Lucas County Sheriff 11-2, 11-3, 11-4 3 ! (Oregon Police) (1} Jerusalem Twp. Fire Dept. 11-5 1 Sandusky Police S-1 3 O Oregon Police 0-1 1 Lake Twp. Police L-1 1 TOTAL 36 O l I-3 Rev. 1 l
h O v t.J TABLE I-3. ACTIwATICN CF TRAFFIC CONTROL PCINTS PRIORITY 1 PRIORITY 2 ECUIPPEhT RLQUIRED EQUIPMENT REQUIRED RFSION TCP AGENCY MANPOWER CCNES SAMRICADES TCP AGENCY MAhPCWER CONES SAMRICADES 2-MILC 5-2 CHPD 2 6 0 6-1 CCS D 1 3 0 TOTALS 3 9 0 5-MILL 2-1 CCS D 1 3 0 4-1 CCSD 1 6 0 3-1 CCSD 1 5 0 4-2 05HP 1 6 0 5-2 OHPD 2 6 0 6-1 CC50 1 3 0 6-2 CC50 2 IT 0 TOTALS 4 40 0 TGTALS 1 6 0 g to-MILE 2-1 CC50 1 3 0 4-1 OC50 1 6 0 h 3-1 OC50 1 5 0 5-3 OHP3 2 3 0 4-2 0$dP 1 6 0 9-2 PCPO 1 0 0 5-1 OC50 1 6 0 9-3 PCPD 1 3 0 5-2 CHPO 2 6 0 5-1 SPD 3 12 4 6-1 CCSD 1 3 0 5-2 SPD 0 0 3 6-2 0C50 2 17 0 C-1 05HP 1 4 0 6-3 OC50 1 4 0 C-2 OSHP O O 4 8-1 C5HP 2 0 13 0-1 OPD 1 0 2 9-1 PCPD 1 0 0 L-I LTPD 1 0 0 9-4 PCFO 1 3 0 9-5 PCP0 2 0 0 9-6 C5HP 3 33 2 11-1 05HP 1 3 0 , 11-2 LCSD 2 6 0 11-3 LC50 1 0 0 11-4 LCSD 1 3 0 JTFD 6 0 l 11-5 1
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S UBAREA: 2 TCP: 21 LOCATION: Route 2 & Benton Carroll Road AGENCY: Ottawa' County Sheriff NODE: 14
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N Route 2 O
=l 0
~
0 O seatoa carroll , Road l E.9X. *
- Movement facilitated
>l Movement discouraged
@ Traffic guide O Traffic cone X Traffic barricaae DESCRIPTION: Facilitate traffic turning south onto Benton Carroll Road or continuing west on Route 2.
Discourage all eastbound traffic. EQUIPMENT / MANPOWER 1 traffic guide, 3 traffic cones I-7 Rev. 0
- . . _ . . _ _ - _ _ - _ _ _ . _ _ _ _ _ ~_....____. -..__ _ -.
l
- SUBAREA: 3 iCP: 3-1 LOCATION: Route 2 & Route 579 AGENCY, Ottawa County NODE: 57
)
oute 2 ; N Route 2 h O # g.~:c .
/
- O Route 579 j/
l 0 O 1:1 i Key: 3rayt wn Road
, Edght #
- Movement facilitated Iri Movement dificouraged l QD Traffic guide j
O Traffic cone l
)( Traffic barricade DESCRIPTION: Facilitate movement westbound on Route 2 and westbound from Route 2 to Route 579. Discourage all eastbound movement on Route 2.
1 ( i EQUIPMENT / MANPOWER l traf fic guide, 5 traffic cones l l I-8 Rev. D
- s. . . _
4 A r ['\ L SUB AREA: 4 TC_P: 4-1 LOCATION: Route 105 and Route 590 AGENCY: Ottawa count!' Sheriff NODE: 69 Route 59u j l N STOP OOC
, W 0 O Light );I -
p O O l Route 105 > STOP Light i M: D*- Movement facilitated 3r-1 Movement discouraged QD Traffic guide O Traffic cone
>( Traffic barricade DESCRIPTION: Facilitate southbound traffic on Route 590 and west-bound traffic on Route 105. Discourage eastbound and
, northbound traffic EQUIPMENT / MANPOWER 1 traffic guide, 6 traffic cones I-9 gey, o
SUBAREA: 4 TCP: 42 LOCATION: Route 590 and AGENCY: Ohio State Route 163 -Highway Patrol NODE: 54 AN Route 590 N STOP O o
~
I Y O .. o Light -]= j STOp Rotate 163 O Light l l M 3 Movement facilitated El Movement discouraged
@ Traffic guide O Traffic cone X Traffic barricade DESCRIPTION: Facilitate southbound traffic on Route 590 and west-bound traffic on Route 163. Discourage eastbound and northbound traffic O 1 traffic guide, 6 traffic cones EQUIPMENT / MANPOWER I-10 Rev. 0 l -. __ -._._, ,
O SUBAREA: 5 TCP: 5-1 LOCATION: Benton Carroll Rd. and AGENCY: Ottawa County Route 163 Sheriff
, NODE: 50 Y
N Benton Carroll Road STOP oOO l . T 4 @E :f' O i R_oute 163 STOP Light I ( M:
> Movement facilitated
>l Movement discouraged
@ Traffic guide O Traffic cone X Traffic barricade DESCRIPTION: Facilitate southbound movement on Benton Carroll Rd.
and westbound on Route 163. Discourage northbound traffi on Benton Carroll Rd. and eastbound traffic on Route 163. EQUIPMENT / MANPOWER 1 traffic guide, 6 traffic cones l 4 I-ll nov, o i
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\
,1 , O SUBAREA: 5 TCP: 5-2 LOCATION: Route 19 AGENCY: Oak harbor Route 163, Oak Harbor Po11ce NODE: 24 I
] \
j Gulf Station N i Route 19 -f Lecust St. hi Light -: s e4 l ~O j O' )[ Route 163 Light M:
- Movement facilitated
>l Movement discouraged
@ Traffic guide L O Traffic cone X Traffic barricade DESCRIPTION: Facilitate westbound traffic on Route 163 and southbound traffic on Route 19 Discourage eastbound and northbound traffic EQUIPMENT / MANPOWER 2 traffic guides, 6 traffic cones I-12 Rev, 0
o ('\
- S UBAREA: 5 TCP: 5-3 LOCATION: Route 105 Oak Harbor AGENCY: Oak Harbor Route 163 Police !
NODE: 75 , 'f Benton Street j( j/ Oak Street N Route 163 O
\ ,
i Benton Street j, Route 163 1 A 1 f 1 PARK ,
- i i
J 0
- Ai __ i n
geg: Route 105 Water Street
= Movement facilitated Orl Movement discouraged QD Traffic guide
, o Traffic cone
>( Traffic barricade DESCRIPTION: Facilitate traffic moving west from Route 163 onto Route 105.
Discourage eastbound traffic on Route 163. O EQUIPMENT / MANPOWER 2 traffic guides, 3 traffic cones I-13 Rev. O
L
.o O SUBAREA: 6 TCP: 6-1 LOCATION: Route 2 AGENCY: Ottawa County Toussaint South Road Sheriff NODE: 2 hk N
O O
/
GB - ight Light 'Ns s l Toussaint South Rd. I ' l Key: I := Movement facilitated 3rl Movement discouraged GD ' traffic guide O Traffic cone X Traffic barricade DESCRIPTION: Facilitate movements from eastbound Route 2 to south-bound Toussaint South. Discourage westbound travel on Route 2 EQUIPMENT / MANPOWER 1 traffic guide, 3 traffic cones I-14 Rev. 0 .
. . . = . = . . - . - - - - .. . . - .
t t e : ! SUBAREA: 6 TCP: 6-2 LOCATION: Erie Industrial Park- AGENCY: Ottawa County. ' Route 2 Sheriff
- NODE
- 10
}\
Erie Industrial -
, Park Access N
i
; Route 2 o oo i o 0
@o - - --
L //////////8 _e U//b o o oG/// / / / / / / / . ' .O - - - - -- = C i I i I l I i i Mt
- Movement facilitated r El Movement discouraged
@ Traffic guide O Traffic cone r X Traffic barricade DESCRIPTION: Facilitate movement from Erie Industrial Park to eastbound Route 2. Discourage westbound traffic on Route 2.
O EQUIPMENT / MANPOWER 2 traffic guide s,17 traffic cones I-15 Rev. O
o
;O TCP: 6-3 SUBAREA: 6 LOCATION: Camp Perry Road AGENCY: Ottawa County Route 2 Sheriff NODE: 18 ,
] (
N Camp Perry Road i Route 2 o ' l_ l bg f( b ( O ._ _ _ _ _ _= ________
= ,
r Route 358 1 g:
- Movement facilitated
>l Movement discouraged
@ Traffic guide O Traffic cone X Traffic barricade DESCRIPTION: Facilitate movement east on Route 2 and from Camp Perry to Route 358 or West on Route 2. Discourage westbound traffic on Route 2.
EQUIPMENT / MANPOWER 1 traffic guide, 4 traffic cones ( I-16, Rev. O
b v SUBAREA: 8 TCP: 8-1 LOCATION: Fremont Rd and Route 2 AGENCY: Ohio State NODE: 38, 39, 81 Y N
/
s _ + f~. / Light h#
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/
7 Route 53
/ ~
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V/Susf
>-- Movement facilitated kl Movement discouraged @ Traffic guide O Traffic cone X Traffic barricade DESCRIPTION: Facilitate traffic entering eastbound Route 2 on ramps.
Force traffic off of westbound Route 2 EQUIPMENT / MANPOWER 2 traffic guides, 13 traf fic barricades I-17 Rev. O
S UBAREA: 9 TCP: 9-1 i LOCATION: Fremont Road and Portage Street AGENCY: Port Clinton Police NODE: 77
)N N
\PortageSt.
//
l O rremone Rd. g: 3 Movement facilitated
>l Movement discouraged
@ Traffic guide t
O Traffic cone X Traffic barricade DESCRIPTION: Facilitate southwest movement on Fremont Road. Facilitate traffic entering Fremont Road from Portage Street. EQUIPMENT / MANPOWER 1 traffic guide I-18 Rev. 0
+ . , _ . - . - -
/
S UBAREA: 9 TCP: 9-2 LOCATION: East Perry Street & AGENCY: Port Clinton
. Buckeye Boulevard Police NODE:
b\ N East Perry Street
---- - 6
___E___
=
ex= f . N Buckeye Blvd. If l Kj!y,
> Movement facilitated il Movement discouraged
@ Traffic guide O Traffic cone l
X Traffic barricade DESCRIPTION: Facilitate eastbound flow on East Perry Street. EQUIPMENT / MANPOWER ' i-1 traffic guide ! I-19 Rev. O __ . . - . - _ _ - - - - - - - - - - - - - ~ - - - - - - - - - ~ ~ ~ ~ - - ~~~ ~ ~~
i
, i SUBAREA: 9 TCP: 9-3 LOCATION: East Perry and Jefferson St. AGENCY: Port Clinton Polico NODE:
Note: This post manned during Peak Summer Season only N
- East Perry 0 -
_a Z r_______ O} /@f o Wendy's l l l Jefferson St. ( I K_ey: A Movement facilitated l 5l Movement discouraged l @ Traffic guide O Traffic cone X Traffic barricade l DESCRIPTION: Facilitate eastbound movements on East Perry St. Discourage westbot,ind traf fic l O EQUIPMENT / MANPOWER 1 traffic guide 3 traffic cones I-20 Rev. O
SUBAREA: 9 TCP: 9-4 LOCATION: Monroe St. and West Perry AGENCY: Port Clinton
. Police N_ ODE: 30 Y
] O Lift N g Bridge P West PurrL r 004
~ _______
l4 , g.., _. f- - - - h __
~
h r Monroe St.
$8.Y.8
- - * ~ Movement facilits.ted
--4H Movement discouraged
$ Traffic guide O Traffic cone X Traffic barricade DESCRIPTION: Pacilitate movuteent douth on Monroe e.3d West or. Per:y T>iscourage movements toward the lift tridge !
O EQUIPMENT / MANPOWER 1 traffic guide 3 traffic cones I-21 R*V+ 0 O A ') W ' " 'i.biWEdti. -~."49- ^ " lLM. .ssz : -
' c+M
S UBAREA: 9 TCP: 9-5 LOCATION: Fulton and Third Street AGENCY: Port Clinton Third Street, Lincoln Drive Police NODE: 113 and State Street A\ Fulton N Street j i Third Street O e_ h . Lincoln Street l- . f
, ~
t Stat Street M:
- Movement facilitated
+1 Movement discouraged
@ Traffic guide O Traffic cone X Traffic barricade DESCRIPTION: Facilitate movement north to Perry Street or along Third Street to Lincoln Drive then South to State Street.
O EQUIPMENT / MANPOWER 2 traffic guides (Traffic Guide at Third Street and Lincoln Drive is optional) l ~ Rev. 0
b' ' SUBAREA: 9 TCP: 9-6 LOCATION: Route 163 Connector AGENCY: Ohio State Rd. With Rt. 2 Highway Patrol NODE: 60, 61, 62 1
% I / Route 163
- - - - - O-0 O 0 + O-O o -g-
- O - o o- o g - -- - - _ . - _ __
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)N I O' 08 -
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i i n l\ O o' ' 8 s i acut. 2 O .
-- - - -- -_ _ _ _ _ __ so o, g: - - - - - - -
_y_ _ _ _ __ __ g__ e rr j 3 Movement facilitated
>l Movement discouraged Traffic guide
( o Traffic cone X Traffic barricade DESCRIPTION: Facilitate traffic movements from eastbound Route 163 j to eastbound Route 2. Discourage all westbound movements. EQUIPMENT / MANPOWER 3 traffic guides, 2 traffic barricades, 33 traffic cones I-23 Rev. O
o SUBAREA: 11 TCP: 11-1 LOCATION: Teachout Road AGENCY: Ohio State Route 2 Highway Patrol , NODE:
)N N
Teachout
- Road STOP o - -
O
=l O n
Route 2
+
M8
>- Movement facilitated
>l Movement discouraged
@ Traffic guide O Traffic cone l
X Traffic barricade DESCRIPTION: Facilitate westbound traffic on Route 2 and traffic turning west from Teachout Rd. Discourage eastbound traffic. O EQUIPMENT / MANPOWER 1 traffic guide, 3 traffic cones I-24 nov. 0 '
Ei o O SUBAREA: 11 TCP: 11-2 LOCATION: Teachout Road & Corduroy Road AGENCY: Lucas County Sheriff NODE:
]\
N Anchor Point Road
@O O l o l O O O o n Corduroy Road Teachout Road M:
- Movement facilitated kl Movement discouraged
@ Traffic guide O Traffic cone X Traffic barricade DESCRIPTION: Facilitate westbound traf fic on Corduroy Road.
Discourage eastbound and northbound traffic. O 2 traffic guides, 6 traffic cones EQUIPMENT / MANPOWER I-25 Rev. 0
o O S UBAREA: 11 TCP: 11-3 - LOCATION: Bono Road & Route 2 AGENCY 5 Lucas County Sheriff NODE: YN N
, t ,'
Bono Road j l O O Route 2 l l ME8 \
> Movement facilitated j El Movement discouraged
@ Traffic guide O Traffic cone l X Traffic barricade l
DESCRIPTION: Facilitate traffic moving west from Bono Road to Route 2. EQUIPMENT / MANPOWER 1 traffic guide l l l I-26 Rev. O i
SUBAREA: 11 TCP: 11-4 LO'ATION: Howard Rd. & Jerusalem Rd, Lucas County AGENCY _ : Sheriff NODE: 74 I-
)k N
Howard Road STOP
. t 0 0 0
0 Jerusalem Rd. (Route 2) , M:
- Movement faciliteced
>l Movement dis;ouriged
/
, @ Traffic guide O Traffic cone X Traffic barricade DESCRIPTION: Facilitate westbound movement along Route 2.
Facilitate traffic turning west from Howard Rd. Discourage eastbound traffic on Route 2. EQUIPMENT / MANPOWER 1 traffic guide, 3 traffic cones I-27 Rev. O
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SUBAREA: 11 TCP: 11-5 LOC.TTION : Howard Road & Corduroy Road AGENCY: Jerusalem TWP, i NODE: Fire Dept. 85
)k .
N , I > Corduroy Rd.
) OOC , ;
I If i N - o n 4
, Howard Rd.
Eelt
- Movement facilitated
-+ 1 Movement discouraged
@ Traffic guide
-O Traffic cone X Traffic barricade DESCRIPTION: Facilitate traffic turning west on Corduroy Road l or moving south on Howard Road. ;
Discourage eastbound and northbound traffic. i O ; EQUIPMENT / MANPOWER 1 traffic guide, 6 traffic cones t L t
. 1~20 Rev. O
SUBAREA: TCP: C-1 LOCATION: Route 163 and Route 53 AGENCY: Ohio State Catawba Highway Patrol NODEt
] \
N l I I I I I l l Route 163 . gd =go ___ ___O O g O _ _ __ - - I I i l l l
; Cheesehaven I
i i j M I l g l Route 53
- Movement facilitated
>l Movement discouraged j
@ Traffic guide O Traffic cone X Traffic barricade DESCRIPTION: Facilitate turns from eastbound Route 163 to southbound Route 53. Discourage southbound traffic on Route 53 from continuing south.
EQUIPMENT / MANPOWER - 1 traffic guide ! 4 traffic cones I-29 Rev. 0
9 ('i V SUBAREA: TCP: C-2 LOCATION: Route 53, State Rd., Route 2, AGENCY: Ohio State Catawba Highway Patrol NODE: I i I 1 I I Route 53 )i State Road l HUi I N
,I y I i
i l , I . I i V U Q M < m Route 2
- __= __ _ _ =_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
~ ~
y yx K*Y.8 Movement facilitated
>l Movement discouraged
@ Traffic guide O Traffic cone X Traffic barricade D_ESCRIPTION : Barricade Westbound Route 2 on ramp and eastbound Route 2 offramp O
EQUIPMENT / MANPOWER 4 barricades (unmanned) I-30 Rev. 0
. . _ _ J
3 S UB AREA : TCP: S-1 LOCATION: Sandusky Road (Route 6) and AGENCY: Sandusky Police Route 2 (Sandusky Bypass) NODE: putcuntcn
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>I Movement discouraged s s g
' \
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@ Traffic guide O Traffic cone \
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j X Traffic barr:1cade s DESCRIPTION: Divert traffic from westbound Route 2 (Sandusky Bypass) co southbound Route 6. Close westbound on ramp to non-emergency traffic. Assist evacuating vehicles turning north onto Route 6. EQUIPMENT / MANPOWER . 12 traffic cones 4 traffic barricades 3 traffic guides I-31 Rev. O
o ll t C SQ3ARCA: TCP: S-2 kggrION: Route 6 (Sandusky Rd.) and AGENCY: OSHP/ODOT Route 269 (Martins Point Rd.) N_ O,D,,E,,
-N /
+' / \
\
N d , Route 269 (Martins Point Route 2 - Rd.) (Sandusky Bypass) Road y _ Closed Route 6 (Sandusky Rd.) A Ei*Y.1
= Movement facilitated bl Movement discouraged
@ Traffic guide O Traffic cone ,
i X Traffic barricade l , DESCRIPTION: Post "Road Closed to Thru Traffic" sign to prevent } traffic turning north onto Route 269 from Route 6. [ Block Route 2 wastbound onramp from Route 269. ( EQUIPMENT / MANPOWER i l 3 barricades I-32\ Rev. 1 - L
i t a SUBAREA: TCP: o.1 LOCATION: I-280 and Route 2 AGENCY: Oregon Police DeptI 4 NODE: I i I 8 l 1 l x ' I Il l lI I i lj i - i- ; g } I f- . N I I l s I , l A\\\ \\ \\ \\v % l l l Route 2 O i l ' I l . f I I l If k If ' \ l
- g
- I-280 I-280 (South) (North) l
> Movement facilitated '
---D-l Movement discouraged ;
pp Traffic guide j o Traffic cone X Traffic barricade l I~ DESCRIPTION: Close I-280 South offramp to Route 2 to divert trucks south to the Ohio Turnpike O > EQd1PMENT/ MANPOWER I 2 barricades i 1 traffic guido t ._ ._ - _ _ _ - . . _ I-3 3 __
,- __,,_ _Rev.__0 _ _ _
i I r .
- ~
5 SUBAREA: TCP: L-1 , i LOCATION: Route 51 and Route 579 AGENCY: Lake Twp. Police NODE:
] \
N
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\
g Shopping
\ -
Center
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\ \
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\
Route 579
\
\
\ \
Route 51
\ \
l
\
g: \
? Movement facilitated
>l Movement discouraged \
~
@ Traffic guide O Traffic cone X Traffic barricade DESCRIPTION: Discourage truck traffic from turning east onto l Route 579 O
EQUIPMENT / MANPOWER 1 traffic guide l _ _ _ M4 Rev. O
t i 9 ? O APPENDIX J t Evacuation Route Descriptions O i 6 i i i
/ka3 :
i i 1, l I i r f 1 O I i i i b w
..s-wo-m-,._ -.-, ,= .----+ --
1 Davis Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Route Descriptions Subarea 1 Aricess to Route 2. West Jf Davis Besse Nuclear Power Station Proceed west on Route 2 to Benton Carroll Road. Turn sout'1. (left). Proceed to Route 105. Turn west (right) onto Route 105. Continue until Route 590. Turn south (left) on Route 590 and proceed south. Access to Route 2. south of Davis Besse Nuclear Power Station Proceed east along Route 2 to Route 104 (Toussaint South). Turn south (right) on Toussaint South and proceed to Route 98 (Salem Carroll Road). Turn west (right) onto Route 98 and proceed to Route 19. Turn south (left) onto Route 19 and proceed to Fremont. Access to Route 19 Preceed south on Route 19. O Subarea 2 Access to Route 23 (Benton Carroll Road) Turn south onto Benton Carroll Road. Proceed to Route 105. Turn west (right) onto Route 105. Continue until Route 590. Turn south (left) on Route 590 and proceed' south. Access to Route 19 Proceed south on Route 19. Agcess to Route 98. east of Route 19 Proceed west along Route 98 (Salem Carroll Road) to Route 19. Turn south (lef t) onto Route 19. Proceed south on Route 19. } t J-l Rev. O
1 o Subarea 3 Access to Route 23 (Banton Carroll Roadi ; Turn south onto Route 23 (Benton Carroll Road). Proceed to Route 163. Turn West (right) onto Route 163. Continue west on Route 163 into Genoa. . Access to Route 590 4 Turn south ontc Route 590. Proceed to Route 163. Turn west (right) onto Route 163. Continue west on Route 163 into Genoa. A; cess to Gravtown Road, or Elliston Trowbridae Road Turn south onto Graytown Road, or Elliston Trowbridge Road. Proceed to Route 163. Turn west (right) onto Route 163. Continue west on Route 163 into Genoa. Subaroa 4 , 4 Access to Route 590 Proceed south on Routo $90.
- Subarea 5 j Access to Route 163, west.of Oak Harbor Proceed west along Route 163. Turn south (left) onto Route 590. Proceed south on Route 590.
I
- Access to Route 105, west of Oak Harbor Proceed west along Route 105. Turn south (left) onto Route 590. Proceed south on Route 590.
Access to Route 19 i Proceed south on Route 19. Aqpess to Route 163, east of Oak Harksr l Proceed west on Route 163. Turn south (left) onto Route 19 in oak Harbor. Proceed south on Route 19. Aqcess to Frenont Road (Roule 53) Proceed south on Fremont Road (Route 53). J-2 Rev. 0 (__
a q,) Subarea 6 Access to Route 26 (Carroll Erie Road) Proceed south on Carroll Erie Road. Turn west (right) onto Route 163. Proceed west on Route 163. Turn south (lef t) onto Route 19 in Oak Harbor. Proceed south on Route 19. Access to Route 2 Proceed east on Route 2. Turn south on Fremont Road or continue on Route 2 into Sandusky. Subarea 7 Access to Route 163 Proceed west on Route 163. Turn south (left) onto Route 19 in Oak Harbor. Proceed south on Route 19. . Access to Route 2 Proceed east on Route 2. Continue on Route 2 into Sandusky. Subarea 8 Access to Fremont Road (Route 53), south of Route 2 Proceed south on Fremont Road (Route 53). ! Access to Fremont Road (Route 53), north of Route 2 1 Proceed south on Fremont Road (Route 53). Turn east (left) onto the eastbound Route 2 on-ramp. Proceed east on Route 2 into Sandusky. l O J-3 Rev. 0
Subarea 9 Access to Route 163, west of the Port Clinton lift bridae Proceed west on Route 163. Turn east (left) onto the eastbound Route 2 on-ramp. Proceed east on Route 2 into Sandusky. Access to Harrison St! Fremont Road in Port Clinton Proceed south on Fremont Road (Route 53). Turn east (left) onto the eastbound Route 2 on-ramp. Proceed east on Route 2 into Sandusky. Access to Perry Street, east of the Port Clinton lift bridae Proceed east on Perry St. Proceed east on Route 163 out of Port Clinton or turn south (right) onto the Route 2 Access Road. If Route 163 is chosen, continue east to Route 53 in Catawba. Turn south (right) onto Route 53. Proceed south on Route 53 to eastbound Route 2. Proceed to Sandusky via Route 2 eastbound. Access to State Road Proceed east on State Road to Route 53 in Catawba. Enter f, State Route 2 eastbound. (-) Subarea 10 Access to Route 2 Proceed west on Route 2. Turn south (left) onto Route 590 or proceed west on Route 2. If Route 590 is chosen, proceed south on Route 590. Continue west on Route 2 to Route 579. Proceed west on Route 579 or continue on Route 2. If Route 579 is chosen, proceed west. If Route 2 is chosen proceed west on Route 2 into Lucas County. Subarea 11 Access to Cordurov Rqad Proceed west on Corduroy Road. Access to Route 2
/~T Proceed west on Route 2.
V J-4 Rev. 0 END
o O APPENDIX K Evacuation Route Maps O i .
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