ML20132B753

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Advises of USGS Issuance of Volcano Alert Indicating Imminent Eruption of Mount St Helens.Prediction Based Upon Marked Increase in Level of Background Seismicity W/Rapid Dome Growth.Nearby Facilities Would Not Be Affected
ML20132B753
Person / Time
Site: Trojan File:Portland General Electric icon.png
Issue date: 02/07/1984
From: Lefevre H
Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
To: Rolonda Jackson
Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
Shared Package
ML19264D658 List:
References
FOIA-85-353 NUDOCS 8402160616
Download: ML20132B753 (11)
v • d • e


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p ua y jo, UNITED STATES V' ll.ff j 0l}l 2 g g NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSf0N * // # I

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1 MEI10P.A!!DUM FOR: Robert E. Jackson, Chief i Geosciences Brancn, DE '

THRU: .

' . . Stephan Brocoum, Leaoer 1 ' ' Geology Section, GSB, DE

FROM
Harold E. Lefevre, Geologist Geology Section, GSB, DE

SUBJECT:

MOUNT ST. HELENS VOLCANO-ERUPTION ALERT Early Sunday evening (Pacific Standard Time), the U. S. Geological Survey and the University of Washington issued a Volcano Alert indicating that an eruption of Mount St. Helens is likely to begin within 48 hours5.555556e-4 days <br />0.0133 hours <br />7.936508e-5 weeks <br />1.8264e-5 months <br />. This prediction is based upon a marked increase in the level of background seismicity (the largest earthquake reported in the current series has been a magnitude 2.8 event) coupled.with a rather rapid dome growth. The eruption, if it were to occur, would most likely consist of an explosion caused by lave dome pressurization and subsequent failure followed by an essentially vertical ash column and perhaps a nud flow on the north flank of the volcano. According to Mount St. Helens l'edia Center personnel neither the ash cicud nor the possible mudflow is expected to present a hazard to the nearby -

communities. The ash would be ejected to high altitudes and then dispersed thinly over a wide area, while the north slope mud flow, lacking little natural lubricant (melted snow) because of the minimal snow pack, would be rather small. The mudflow is not expected to reach Spirit Lake. Based upon the above-described eruption effects (widely dispersed minimal ash fall and possible mudflow on the north flank of the volcano) neither the Trojan plant, some 35 air miles west of the vcicano nor the more distant WPPSS facilities at Satsop and at the Hanford Reservation, would be affected.

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February 14, 1984 4

i Preliminary Agenda for Meeting

Trojan - Spirit Lake - Mount St. Helens  ;

February 23, 1984

_3

j I. USGS Presentation *
I 1. USGS Report 82-4125 "Mudflow Hazards Along the Toutle and Cowlitz Rivers from a Hypothetical Failure of Spirit Lake Blockage", as it relates to study done for NRC

. 2. Study done for NRC a) Bases for assumptions

1) which assumptions are reasonable j 2) which assumptions are conservative b) Conclusions regarding potential impacts on Trojan
3. Status of USGS's long tenn FEMA study for the Columbia River.

II. PG&E Presentation

1. Simons, Li Report III. Group Discussion
1. USGS views on S.imon, Li Report & NRC's comments on the Simons, Li Report
2. Discussion between NRC, PG&E and consultant, and USGS on differences between PG&E's Simons, Li Report and USGS's NRC report
3. Need for further analyses and evaluations

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