ML19274C666
| ML19274C666 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Issue date: | 10/01/2019 |
| From: | Jack Giessner NRC/RGN-III |
| To: | |
| RAKOVAN L/NMSS/MSST | |
| Shared Package | |
| ML19274C654 | List: |
| References | |
| Download: ML19274C666 (8) | |
Text
Risk Insights Jack Giessner Deputy Regional Administrator Region III National State Liaison Officer Conference September 4, 2019 1
- Risk is: Probability/possibility of loss
- Intuitive? Risky o Driving a car o Flying an airplane o Skydiving/scuba diving o Climbing Mt Everest o Terrorist attacks
- Qualitative and Quantitative o Complexity and Rigor o Integrated What is Risk?
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- What can go wrong?
o Scenarios
- How likely is it?
o Probability - frequency on a per something basis
- What are the consequences?
o Impact on Equipment o Impact on people o Impact to environment Risk Triplet 3
- Because it did go wrong in the past
- Because its possible
- Reasonableness - perhaps
- Out of the box scenarios or not o Current License Basis o Agreed upon principles o Adequate protection is the standard What Can Go Wrong?
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- Numbers are important
- Units of measure are important o Unlikely scenarios that have high consequences may be considered o Is a scenario really implausible?
How likely is it?
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Likelihood of getting cancer in US o 4 in 10 chance (over your entire life)
Likelihood of space shuttle catastrophic failure (circa 1990) o 1 in 80 per flight Likelihood of being hit by lightning o
1 in 700,000 per year Likelihood of winning US national Powerball o 1 in 100,000,000 per playing Baseline risk of US Power Reactor for core damage o 1 in 200,000 per reactor year Risk of small meteor hitting a reactor plant o 1 in 100,000,000,000 Likelihood of a monkey randomly typing a Shakespeare play o 1 in 10 E 200,000 (1200,000 zeroes)
How likely is it?
Plausible scenarios?
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- What would be acceptable - reactors o Core Damage Frequency/Larger Early Release Frequency o Prompt fatalities/Cancer fatalities/Increase cancer o Prevent or mitigate radiological sabotage Reactors - 1986 Safety Goal: Protect nuclear plants such that individual members of the public bear no significant additional risk to life and health.
QHO one-tenth of a percent (1/1000) (by a person living close to the plant) of the overall risk of death from accidents and cancer experienced by the average member of the U.S.
population. (NRC uses CDF/LERF surrogates)
What are the consequences?
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The principles of risk in reactor and non-reactor applications date back to the 60s and 70s We want to be more risk informed - better use of resources Use risk in planning for, and inspecting Use risk in decision-making Its more than intuition AND Its not a science Differing views persist today Key attributes of good risk techniques o Integrated framework o Teamwork o Communication Now and the Future 8