ML16047A069

TR510, Revision 2, Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 2 of 4

ML16047A069
Person / Time
Site:	Pilgrim
Issue date:	12/31/2015
From:	KLD Engineering, PC
To:	Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
Shared Package
ML16047A066	List: ML16047A067 ML16047A068 ML16047A069 ML16047A070 ML16047A071
References
2.16.007 TR510, Rev. 2
Download: ML16047A069 (93)

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9 TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT STRATEGY This section discusses the suggested traffic control and management strategy that is designed to expedite the movement of evacuating traffic. The resources required to imp~lement this strategy include:

• Personnel with the capabilities of performing the planned control functions of traffic guides (preferably, not necessarily, law enforcement officers).

o Traffic Control Devices to assist these personnel in the performance of their tasks. These devices should comply with the guidance of the Manual of Uniform Traffic Control Devices (MUTCD) published by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) of the U.S.D.O.T. All state transportation agencies have access to the MUTCD, which is available on-line: http://mutcd.fhwa.dot.gov which provides access to the official PDF version.

• A plan that defines all locations, provides necessary details and is documented in a format that is readily understood by those assigned to perform traffic control.

The functions to be performed in the field are:

1. Facilitate evacuating traffic movements that safely expedite travel out of the EPZ.

2. Discourage traffic movements that move evacuating vehicles in a direction which takes them significantly closer to the power plant, or which interferes with the efficient flow of other evacuees.

The terms "facilitate" and "discourage" are employed rather than "enforce" and "prohibit" to indicate the need for flexibility in performing the traffic control function. There are always legitimate reasons for a driver to prefer a direction other than that indicated. For example:

• A driver may be traveling home from work or from another location, to join other family members prior to evacuating.

• An evacuating driver may be travelling to pick up a relative, or other evacuees.

oThe driver may be an emergency worker en route to perform an important activity.

The implementation of a plan must also be flexible enough for the application of sound judgment by the traffic guide.

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The traffic management plan is the outcome of the following process:

1. The existing TCPs and ACPs identified by the offsite agencies in their existing emergency plans serve as the basis of the traffic management plan, as per NUREG/CR-7002.

2. Computer analysis of the evacuation traffic flow environment.

This analysis identifies the best routing. and those critical intersections that experience pronounced congestion. Any critical intersections that are not identified in the existing offsite plans are suggested as additional TCPs and ACPs

3. A field survey of the highway network within 15 miles of the power plant. The schematics describing traffic and access control at suggested additional TCPs and ACPs, which are presented in Appendix G, are based on. data collected during field surveys, upon large scale maps, and on overhead photos.

4. Consultation with emergency management and law enforcement personnel.

Trained personnel who are experienced in controlling traffic and are aware of the likely evacuation traffic patterns should review the control tactics at the suggested additional TCPs and ACPs.

5. Prioritization of TCPs and ACPs.

Application of traffic and access control at some TCPs and ACPs will have a more pronounced influence on expediting traffic movements than at other TCPs and ACPs. For example, TCPs controlling traffic originating from areas in close proximity to the power plant could have a more beneficial effect on minimizing potential exposure to radioactivity than those TCPs located far from the power plant. These priorities should be assigned by state emergency management representatives and by law enforcement personnel.

It is recommended that the control tactics identified in the schematics in Appendix G be reviewed by the state emergency planners, and local and state police. Specifically the number and locations of the suggested TCPs and ACPs should be reviewed in detail, and the indicated resource requirements should be reconciled with current assets.

The use of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) technologies can reduce manpower and equipment needs, while still facilitating the evacuation process. Dynamic Message Signs (DMS) can be placed within the EPZ to provide information to travelers regarding traffic conditions, route selection, and reception center information. DMS can also be placed outside of the EPZ to warn motorists to avoid using routes that may conflict with the flow of evacuees away from the power plant. Highway Advisory Radio (HAR) can be used to broadcast information to evacuees en route through their vehicle stereo systems. Automated Traveler Information Systems (ATIS) can also be used to provide evacuees with information. Internet websites can provide traffic and evacuation route information before the evacuee begins his trip, while on board navigation systems (GPS units), cell phones, and pagers can be used to provide information en route. These are only several examples of how ITS technologies can benefit the evacuation process. Consideration should be given that ITS technologies be used to facilitate the evacuation process, and any additional signage placed should consider evacuation needs.

The ETE analysis treated all controlled intersections that are existing TCP locations in the offsite Pilerim Nuclear Power Station 9-2 KLD Eneineerine. P.c.

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agency plans as being controlled by actuated signals.

Chapters 2N and 5G, and Part 6 of the 2009 MUTCD are particularly relevant and should be reviewed during emergency response training.

The ETE calculations reflect the assumption that all "external-external" trips are interdicted and diverted after 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> have elapsed from the ATE.

All transit vehicles and other responders entering the EPZ to support the evacuation are assumed to be unhindered by personnel manning ACPs and TCPs.

Study Assumptions 5 and 6 in Section 2.3 discuss ACP and TCP staffing schedules and operations.

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10 EVACUATION ROUTES Evacuation routes are comprised of two distinct components:

• Routing from a sub-area being evacuated to the boundary of the Evacuation Region and thence out of the EPZ.

• Routing of transit-dependent evacuees from the EPZ boundary to reception centers.

Evacuees will select routes within the EPZ in such a way as to minimize their exposure to risk.

This expectation .is met by the DYNEV II model routing traffic away from the location of the plant, to the extentpracticable. The DTRAD model satisfies this behavior by routing traffic so as to balance traffic demand relative to the available highway capacity to the extent possible.

See Appendices B through Dfor further discussion.

The routing of transit-dependent evacuees from the EPZ boundary to reception centers or host facilities is designed to minimize the amount of travel outside the EPZ, from the points where these routes cross the EPZ boundary.

Figure 10-1 and Figure 10-2 present maps showing the general population reception centers and school host facilities for evacuees. The major evacuation routes for the EPZ are presented in Figure 10-3.

It is assumed that all school evacuees will be taken to the appropriate host facility and subsequently picked up bY parents or guardians. Transit-dependent evacuees are transported to the nearest host facility for each town. This study does not consider the transport of evacuees from reception centers to mass care shelters, if the towns do make the decision to relocate evacuees.

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Figure 10-1. General Population Reception Centers and School Host Facilities Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station 10-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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K Figure 10-2. Bridgewater and Taunton Reception Centers and Host Facilities Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station1- KLD Enginleerinlg, P.C.

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Figure 10-3. Evacuation Route Map Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station 10-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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11 SURVEILLANCE OF EVACUATION OPERATIONS There is a need for surveillance of traffic operations during the evacuation. There is also a need to clear any blockage of roadways arising from accidents or vehicle disablement. Surveillance can take several forms.

1. Traffic control personnel, located at Traffic Control and Access Control points, provide fixed-point surveillance.

2. Ground patrols may be undertaken along well-defined paths to ensure coverage of those highways that serve as major evacuation routes.

3. Aerial surveillance of evacuation operations may also be conducted using helicopter or fixed-wing aircraft, if available.

4. Cellular phone calls (if cellular coverage exists) from motorists may also provide direct field reports of road blockages.

These concurrent surveillance procedures are designed to provide coverage of the entire EPZ as well as the area around its periphery. It is the responsibility of the Towns to support an emergency response system that can receive messages from the field and be in a position to respond to any reported problems in a timely manner. This coverage should quickly identify, and expedite the response to any blockage caused by a disabled vehicle.

Tow Vehicles In a low-speed traffic environment, any vehicle disablement is likely to arise due to a low-speed collision, mechanical failure or the exhaustion of its fuel supply. In any case, the disabled vehicle can be pushed onto the shoulder, thereby restoring traffic flow. Past experience in other emergencies indicates that evacuees who are leaving an area often perform activities such as pushing a disabled vehicle to the side of the road without prompting.

While the need for tow vehicles is expected to be low under the circumstances described above, it is still prudent to be prepared for such a need. Consideration should be given that tow trucks with a supply of gasoline be deployed at strategic locations within, or just outside, the EPZ. These locations should be selected so that:

• They permit access to key, heavily loaded, evacuation routes.

• Responding tow trucks would most likely travel counter-flow relative to evacuating traffic.

Consideration should also be given that the state and local emergency management agencies encourage gas stations to remain open during the evacuation.

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12 CONFIRMATION TIME It is necessary to confirm that the evacuation process is effective in the sense that the public is complying with the Advisory to Evacuate. The EPZ town radiological emergency plans do not discuss a procedure for confirming evacuation. Should procedures not already exist, the following alternative or complementary approach is suggested.

The suggested procedure employs a stratified random sample and a telephone survey. The size of the sample is dependent on the expected number of households that do not comply with the Advisory to Evacuate. It is reasonable to assume, for the purpose of estimating sample size that at least 80 percent of the population within the EPZ will comply with the Advisory to Evacuate.

On this basis, an analysis could be undertaken (see Table 12-1) to yield an estimated sample size of approximately 300.

The confirmation process should start at about 21/22 hours after the Advisory to Evacuate, which is when approximately 90 percent of evacuees have completed their mobilization activities (see Table 5-9). At this time, virtually all evacuees will have departed on their respective trips and the local telephone system will be largely free of traffic.

As indicated in Table 12-1, approximately 7Y1/2 person hours are needed to complete the telephone survey. If six people are assigned to this task, each dialing a different set of telephone exchanges (e.g., each person can be assigned a different set of sub-areas), then the confirmation process will extend over a timeframe of about 75 minutes. Thus, the confirmation should be completed before the evacuated area is cleared. Of course, fewer people would be needed for this survey if the Evacuation Region were only a portion of the EPZ. Use of modern automated computer controlled dialing equipment or other technologies (e.g., reverse 911 or equivalent if available) can significantly reduce the manpower requirements and the time required to undertake this type of confirmation survey.

if this method is indeed used by the offsite agencies, consideration should be given to maintain a list of telephone numbers within the EPZ in the EOC at all times. Such a list could be purchased from vendors and should be periodically .updated. As indicated above, the confirmation process should not begin until 21/22 hours after the Advisory to Evacuate, to ensure that households have had enough time to mobilize. This 21/2'-hour timeframe will enable telephone operators to arrive at their workplace, obtain a call list and prepare to make the necessary phone calls.

Should the number of telephone responses (i.e., people still at home) exceed 20 percent, then the telephone survey should be repeated after an hour's interval until the confirmation process is completed.

Other techniques could also be considered. After traffic volumes decline, the personnel manning TCPs can be redeployed to travel through residential areas to observe and to confirm evacuation activities.

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Table 12-1. Estimated Number of Telephone Calls Required for Confirmation of Evacuation Problem Definition Estimate number of phone calls, n, needed to ascertain the proportion, F of households that have not evacuated.

Reference:

Burstein, H., Attribute Sampling. McGraw Hill, 1971 Given:

o No. of households plus other facilities, N, within the EPZ (est.) = 36,800

• Est. proportion, F, of households that will not evacuate = 0.20

• Allowable error margin, e: 0.05

• Confidence level, a: 0.95 (implies A = 1.96)

Applying Table 10 of cited reference, p =F+e=0.25; q= -p =0.75 A2 pq + e_

n - - 308 Finite population correction:

nN n = = 305 n+N-1 Thus, some 300 telephone calls will confirm that approximately 20 percent of the population has not evacuated. If only 10 percent of the population does not comply with the Advisory to Evacuate, then the required sample size, nF = 215.

Est. Person Hours to complete 300 telephone calls Assume:

• Time to dial using touch tone (random selection of listed numbers): 30 seconds

• Time for 6 rings (no answer): 36 seconds

• Time for 4 rings plus short conversation: 60 sec.

• Interval between calls: 20 sec.

Person Hours:

300[30 + 0.8(36) + 0.2(60) + 20]-76 3600 Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station 12-2 KLD Eneineerinm. P.c.

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APPENDIX A Glossary of Traffic Engineering Terms

ENGIEERGlsayoTErMSi ngneinem A.GLSSRbOlTAFI Table A-i. Glossary of Traffic Engineering Terms 3- 6 Analysis Network A graphical representation of the geometric topology of a physical roadway system, which is comprised of directional links and nodes.

Link A network link represents a specific, one-directional section of roadway. A link has both physical (length, number of lanes, topology, etc.) and operational (turn movement percentages, service rate, free-flow speed) characteristics.

Measures of Effectiveness Statistics describing traffic operations on a roadway network.

Node A network node generally represents an intersection of network links. A node has control characteristics, i.e., the allocation of service time to each approach link.

Origin A location attached to a network link, within the EPZ or Shadow Region, where trips are generated at a specified rate in vehicles per hour (vph). These trips enter the roadway system to travel to their respective destinations.

Prevailing Roadway and Relates to the physical features of the roadway, the nature (e.g.,

Traffic Conditions composition) of traffic on the roadway and the ambient conditions (weather, visibility, pavement conditions, etc.).

Maximum rate at which vehicles, executing a specific turn Service Rate maneuver, can be discharged from a section of roadway at the prevailing conditions, expressed in vehicles per second (vps) or vehicles per hour (vph).

Maximum number of vehicles which can pass over a section of Service Volume roadway in one direction during a specified time period with operating conditions at a specified Level of Service (The Service Volume at the upper bound of Level of Service, E, equals Capacity).

Service Volume is usually expressed as vehicles per hour (vph).

Signal Cycle Length The total elapsed time to display all signal indications, in sequence.

The cycle length is expressed in seconds.

Signal Interval A single combination of signal indications. The interval duration is expressed in seconds. A signal phase is comprised of a sequence of signal intervals, usually green, yellow, red.

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Signal Phase A set of signal indications (and intervals) which services a particular combination of traffic movements on selected approaches to the intersection. The phase duration is expressed in seconds.

Traffic (Trip) Assignment A process of assigning traffic to paths of travel in such a way as to satisfy all trip objectives (i.e., the desire of each vehicle to travel from a specified origin in the network to a specified destination) and to optimize some stated objective or combination of objectives. In general, the objective is stated in terms of minimizing a generalized "cost". For example, "cost" may be expressed in terms of travel time.

Traffic Density The number of vehicles that occupy one lane of a roadway section of specified length at a point in time, expressed as vehicles per mile (vpm).

Traffic (Trip) Distribution A process for determining the destinations of all traffic generated at the origins. The result often takes the form of a Trip Table, which is a matrix of origin-destination traffic volumes.

Traffic Simulation A computer model designed to replicate the real-world operation of vehicles on a roadway network, so as to provide statistics describing traffic performance. These statistics are called Measures of Effectiveness.

Traffic Volume The number of vehicles that pass over a section of roadway in one direction, expressed in vehicles per hour (vph). Where applicable, traffic volume may be stratified by turn movement.

Travel Mode Distinguishes between private auto, bus, rail, pedestrian and air travel modes.

Trip Table or Origin- A rectangular matrix or table, whose entries contain the number Destination Matrix of trips generated at each specified origin, during a specified time period, that are attracted to (and travel toward) each of its specified destinations. These values are expressed in vehicles per hour (vph) or in vehicles.

Turning Capacity The capacity associated with that component of the traffic stream which executes a specified turn maneuver from an approach at an intersection.

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APPENDIX B DTRAD: Dynamic Traffic Assignment and Distribution Model

B. DYNAMIC TRAFFIC ASSIGNM ENT AND DISTRIBUTION MODEL This section describes the integrated dynamic trip assignment and distribution model named DTRAD (Dynamic Traffic Assignment and Distribution) that is expressly designed for use in analyzing evacuation scenarios. DTRAD employs logit-based path-choice principles and is one of the models of the DYNEVII System. The DTRAD module implements path-based Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTA) so that time dependent Origin-Destination (OD) trips are "assigned" to routes over the network based on prevailing traffic conditions.

To apply the DYNEV II System, the analyst must specify the highway network, link capacity information, the time-varying volume of traffic generated at all origin centroids and, optionally, a set of accessible candidate destination nodes on the periphery of the EPZ for selected origins.

DTRAD calculates the optimal dynamic trip distribution (i.e., trip destinations) and the optimal dynamic trip assignment (i.e., trip routing) of the traffic generated at each origin node traveling to its set of candidate destination nodes, so as to minimize evacuee travel "cost".

Overview of Integrated Distribution and Assignment Model The underlying premise is that the selection of destinations and routes is intrinsically coupled in an evacuation scenario. That is, people in vehicles seek to travel out of an area of potential risk as rapidly as possible by selecting the "best" routes. The model is designed to identify these "best" routes in a manner that realistically distributes vehicles from origins to destinations and routes them over the highway network, in a consistent and optimal manner, reflecting evacuee behavior.

For each origin, a set of "candidate destination nodes" is selected by the software logic and by the analyst to reflect the desire by evacuees to travel away from the power plant and to access major highways. The specific destination nodes within this set that are selected by travelers and the selection of the connecting paths of travel, are both determined by DTRAD. This determination is made by a Iogit-based path choice model in DTRAD, so as to minimize the trip "cost", as discussed later.

The traffic loading on the network and the consequent operational traffic environment of the network (density, speed, throughput on each link) vary over time as the evacuation takes place.

The DTRAD model, which is interfaced with the DYNEV simulation model, executes a succession of "sessions" wherein it computes the optimal routing and selection of destination nodes for the conditions that exist at that time.

Interfacing the DYNEV Simulation Model with DTRAD The DYNEV II system reflects NRC guidance that evacuees will seek to travel in a general direction away from the location of the hazardous event._ An algorithm was developed to support the DTRAD model in dynamically varying the Trip Table (O-D matrix) over time from one DTRAD session to the next. Another algorithm executes a "mapping" from the specified "geometric" network (link-node analysis network) that represents the physical highway system, to a "path" network that re'presents the vehicle [turn] movements. DTRAD computations are performed on the "path" network: DYNEV simulation model, on the "geometric" network.

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DTRAD Description DTRAD is the DTA module for the DYNEV II System.

When the road network under study is large, multiple routing options are usually available between trip origins and destinations. The problem of loading traffic demands and propagating them over the network links is called Network Loading and is addressed by DYNEVII using macroscopic traffic simulation modeling. Traffic assignment deals with computing the distribution of the traffic over the roadl network for given O-D demands and is a model of the route choice of the driyers. Travel demand changes significantly over time, and the road network may have time dependent characteristics, e.g., time-varying signal timing or reduced road capacity because of lane closure, or traffic congestion. To consider these time dependencies, DTA procedures are required.

-The DTRAD DTA module represents the dynamic route choice behavior of drivers, using the specification of dynamic origin-destination matrices as flow input. Drivers choose their routes through the network based on the travel cost they experience (as determined by the simulation model). This allows traffic to be distributed over the network according to the time-dependent conditions. The modeling principles of D-TRAD include:

• It is assumed that drivers not only select the best route (i.e., lowest cost path) but some also select less attractive routes. The algorithm implemented by DTRAD archives several "efficient" routes for each O-D pair from which the drivers choose.

• The choice of one route out of a set of possible routes is an outcome of "discrete choice modeling". Given a set of routes and their generalized costs, the percentages of drivers that choose each route is computed. The most prevalent model for discrete choice modeling is the Iogit model. DTRAD uses a variant of Path-Size-Logit model (PSL). PSL overcomes the drawback of the traditional multinomial Iogit model by incorporating an additional deterministic path size correction term to address path overlapping in the random utility expression.

• DTRAD executes the TA algorithm on an abstract network representation called "the path network" which is built from the actual physical link-node analysis network. This execution continues until a stable situation is reached: the volumes and travel times on the edges of the path network do, not change signifiicantly from one iteration to the next. The criteria for this convergence are defined by the user.

• Travel "cost" plays a crucial role in route choice. In DTRAD, path cost is a linear summation of the generalized cost of each link that comprises the path. The generalized cost for a link, a, is expressed as Ca= cxta + +/-l,

+YSa, where ca is the generalized cost for link a, and a, fJ, and y are cost coefficients for link travel time, distance, and supplemental cost, respectively. Distance and supplemental costs are defined as invariant properties of the network model, while travel time is a dynamic property dictated by prevailing traffic conditions. The DYNEV simulation model Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station B3-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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computes travel times on all edges in the network and DTRAD uses that information to constantly update the costs of paths. The route choice decision model in the next simulation iteration uses these updated values to adjust the route choice behavior. This way, traffic demands are dynamically re-assigned based on time dependent conditions.

The interaction between the DTRAD traffic assignment and DYNEV II simulation models is depicted in Figure B-i. Each round of interaction is called a Traffic Assignment Session (TA session). A TA session is composed of multiple iterations, marked as loop B in the figure.

The supplemental cost is based on the "survival distribution" (a variation of the exponential distribution).The Inverse Survival Function is a "cost" term in DTRAD to represent the potential risk of travel toward the plant:

Sa=- 13In (p), O< p*<1;3 >0 d= Distance of node, n, from the plant do =Distance from the plant where there is zero risk 13= Scaling factor The value of do = 15 miles, the outer distance of the shadow region. Note that the supplemental cost, Sa, of link, a, is (high, low), if its downstream node, n, is (near, far from) the power plant.

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Network Equilibrium In 1952, John Wardrop wrote:

Under equilibrium conditions traffic arrangesitself in congested networks in such a way that no individual trip-maker can reduce his path costs by switching routes.

The above statement describes the "User Equilibrium" definition, also called the "Selfish Driver Equilibrium". It is a hypothesis that 'represents a [hopeful] condition that evolves over time as drivers search out alternative routes to identify those routes that minimize their respective "costs". It has been found that this "equilibrium" objective to minimize costs is largely realized by most drivers who routinely take the same trip over the same network at the same time (i.e.,

commuters). Effectively, such drivers "learn" which routes are best for them over time. Thus, the traffic environment "settles down" to a near-equilibrium state.

Clearly, since anemergency evacuation is a sudden, unique event, it does not constitute a long-term learning experience which can achieve an equilibrium state. Consequently, DTRAD was not designed as an equilibrium solution, but to represent drivers in a new and unfamiliar situation, who respond in a flexible manner to real-time information (either broadcast or observed) in such a way as to minimize their respective costs of travel.

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Start of next DTRAD Session Set To - Clock time.

Archive System State at To S Define latest Link Turn I Percentages B Execute Simulation Model from time, T0 to T1 (burn time)

Provide DTRAD with link MOE at time, T1" Execute DTRAD iteration; Get new Turn Percentages Retrieve System State at To Apply new Link Turn Percents S DTRAD iteration converges?

No SYes Simulate from T0 toTI2 (DTA session duration)

Set Clock to TO' Figure B-1. Flow Diagram of Simulation-DTRAD Interface Pilgim Ncler Poer Satin KL KLD EngneeingP.C Engineering,Rev.

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APPENDIX C DYNEV Traffic Simulation Model

C. DYNEV TRAFFIC SIMULATION MODEL The DYNEV traffic simulation model is a macroscopic model that describes the operations of traffic flow in terms of aggregate variables: vehicles, flow rate, mean speed, volume, density, queue length, on each link, for each turn movement, during each Time Interval (simulation time step). The model generates trips from "sources" and from Entry Links and introduces them onto the analysis network at rates specified by the analyst based on the mobilization time distributions. The model simulates the movements of all vehicles on all network links over time until the network is empty. At intervals, the model outputs Measures of Effectiveness (MOE) such as those listed in Table C-i.

Model Features Include:

• Explicit consideration is taken of the variation in density over the time step; an iterative procedure is employed to calculate an average density over the simulation time step for the purpose of computing a mean speed for moving vehicles.

• Multiple turn movements can be serviced on one link; a separate algorithm is Used to

, estimate the number of (fractional) lanes assigned to the vehicles performing each turn movement, based, in part, on the turn percentages provided by the DTRAD model.

• At any point in time, traffic flow on a link is subdivided into two classifications: queued and moving vehicles. The number of vehicles in each classification is computed. Vehicle spillback, stratified by turn movement for each network link, is explicitly considered and quantified. The propagation of stopping waves from link to link is computed within each time step of the simulation. There is no "vertical stacking" of queues on a link.

• Any link can accommodate "source flow" from zones via side streets and parking facilities that are not explicitly represented. This flow represents the evacuating trips that are generated at the source.

• The relation between the number of vehicles occupying the link and its storage capacity is monitored every time step for every link and for every turn movement. If the available storage capacity on a link is exceeded by the demand for service, then the simulator applies a "metering" rate to the entering traffic from both the upstream feeders and source node to ensure that the available storage capacity is not exceeded.

• A "path network" that represents the specified traffic movements from each network link is constructed by the model; this path network is utilized by the DTRAD model.

• A two-way interface with DTRAD: (1) provides link travel times; (2) receives data that translates into link turn percentages.

• Provides MOE to animation software, EVAN

• Calculates ETE statistics Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station c-1 KLD Engineering, P.c.

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All traffic simulation models are data-intensive. Table C-2 outlines the necessary input data elements.

To provide an efficient framework for defining these specifications, the physical highway environment is represented as a network. The unidirectional links of the network represent roadway sections: rural, multi-lane, urban streets or freeways. The nodes of the network generally represent intersections or points along a section where a geometric property changes (e.g. a lane drop, change in grade or free flow speed).

Figure C-i is an example of a small network representation. The freeway is defined by the sequence of links, (20,21), (21,22), and (22,23). Links (8001, 19) and (3, 8011) are Entry and Exit links, respectively. An arterial extends from node 3 to node 19 and is partially subsumed within a grid network. Note that links (21,22) and (17,19) are grade-separated.

Table C-i. Selected Measures of Effectiveness Output by DVNEV II Vehicles Discharged Vehicles Link, Network, Exit Link Speed Miles/Hours (mph) Link, Network Density Vehicles/Mile/Lane Link Level of Service LOS Link Content Vehicles Network Travel Time Vehicle-hours Network Evacuated Vehicles Vehicles Network, Exit Link Trip Travel Time Vehicle-minutes/trip Network Capacity Utilization Percent Exit Link Attraction Percent of total evacuating vehicles Exit Link Max Queue Vehicles .Node, Approach Time of Max Queue Hours:minutes Node, Approach Rout SttisicsLength (mi); Mean Speed (mph); Travel Route RouteStatiticsTime (min)

Mean Travel Time Minutes Evacuation Trips; Network Pilgim Ncler Poer Satin KL EngneeingP-c KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Table C-2. Input Requirements for the DYNEV II Model HIGHWAY NETWORK

• Links defined by upstream and downstream node numbers

• Link lengths

• Number of lanes (up to 9) and channelization

• Turn bays (1 to 3 lanes)

• Destination (exit) nodes

• Network topology defined in terms of downstream nodes for each receiving link

• Node Coordinates (X,Y)

• Nuclear Power Plant Coordinates (X,Y)

GENERATED TRAFFIC VOLUMES

• On all entry links and source nodes (origins), by Time Period TRAFFIC CONTROL SPECIFICATIONS

• Traffic signals: link-specific, turn movement specific

• Signal control treated as fixed time or actuated

• Location of traffic control points (these are represented as actuated signals)

• Stop and Yield signs

• Right-turn-on-red (RTOR)

• Route diversion specifications o Turn restrictions

• Lane control (e.g. lane closure, movement-specific)

DRIVER'S AN D OPERATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS

• Driver's (vehicle-specific) response mechanisms: free-flow speed, discharge headway

• Bus route designation.

DYNAMIC TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT

• Candidate destination nodes for each origin (optional)

• Duration of DTA sessions

• Duration of simulation "burn time"

• Desired number of destination nodes per origin INCIDENTS

• Identify and Schedule of closed lanes

• Identify and Schedule of closed links Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station C-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Entry, Exit Nodes are numbered 8xxx Figure C-1. Representative Analysis Network C-4 C-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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C.1 Methodology C.1.1 The Fundamental Diagram It is necessary to define the fundamental diagram describing flow-density and speed-density relationships. Rather than "settling for" a triangular representation, a more realistic representation that includes a "capacity drop", (I-R)Qmax, at the critical density when flow conditions enter the forced flow regime, is developed and calibrated for each link. This representation, shown in Figure C-2, asserts a constant free speed up to a density, kf, and then a linear reduction in speed in the range, kf_< k _ kc 45 vpm, the density at capacity. In the flow-density plane, a quadratic relationship is prescribed in the range, kc < k __ks = 95 vpm which roughly represents the "stop-and-go" condition of severe congestion. The value of flow rate, Qs, corresponding to ks, iS approximated at 0.7 RQmax. A linear relationship between ks and kj completes the diagram shown in Figure C-2. Table C-3 is a glossary of terms.

The fundamental diagram is applied to moving traffic on every link. The specified calibration values for each link are: (1) Free speed, vf ; (2) Capacity, Qmax ; (3) Critical density, kc =

Qmax 45 vpm ; (4) Capacity Drop Factor, R = 0.9 ; (5) Jam density, k1 . Then, vc, , kf= kc-(vf-vc)k*. Setting k= k-kc, thenQ= RQmaxxRQmax k2 for 0*<k_<k =50. It can be Qmax 83333-shown that Q =(0.98 -0.0056 k) RQmax forks -<k-<k, where ks = 50 and k 175.

C.1.2 The Simulation Model The simulation model solves a sequence of "unit problems". Each unit problem computes the movement of traffic on a link, for each specified turn movement, over a specified time interval (TI) which serves as the simulation time step for all links. Figure C-3 is a representation of the unit problem in the time-distance plane. Table C-3 is a glossary of terms that are referenced in the following description of the unit problem procedure.

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Volume, vph Capacity Drop Qmax -

R Qmax -,

/ ....- QS Density, vpm Speed, mph Free Forced:*

I ,

-*Density, vpm I i k'* ks kj Figure C:-2. Fundamental Diagrams C-6 C-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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At Distance OQ OM OE O Down Qe Me L Mb Up Bi E2 TI Figure C-3. A UNIT Problem Configuration with t1 > 0 Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station C-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Table C-3. Glossary The maximum number of vehicles, of a particular movement, that can discharge Cap from a link within a time interval.

EtimeThe number interval. ofThe vehicles, portion,ofETI,a can particular movement, reach the stop-bar that withinenter the link over the the TI.

The green time: cycle time ratio that services the vehicles of a particular turn G/C movement on a link.

h The mean queue discharge headway, seconds.

k Density in vehicles per lane per mile.

The average density of moving, vehicles of a particular movement over a TI, on a klink. '

L The length of the link in feet.

The ~queue length in feet of a particular movement, at the [beginning, end] of a Lb Le

, time interval.

The number of lanes, expressed as a floating point number, allocated to service a LNparticular movement on a link.

Lv The mean effective length of a queued vehicle including the vehicle spacing, feet.

M Metering factor (Multiplier): 1.

The number of moving vehicles on the link, of a particular movement, that are Mb , Me moving at the [beginning, end] of the time interval. These vehicles are assumed to be of equal spacing, over the length of link upstream of the queue.

The total number of vehicles of a particular movement that are discharged from a 0link over a time interval.

The components of the vehicles of a particular movement that are discharged from a link within a time interval: vehicles that were Queued at the beginning of OQOM ,OE the TI; vehicles that were Moving witlhin the link at the beginning of the TI; vehicles that Entered the link during the TI.

Px The percentage, executes expressed a particular as a fraction, turn movement, x. of the total flow on the link that KLD Engineering, P.c.

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Qb, Qe The numberend]

[beginning, of queued vehicles of the time on the link, of a particular turn movement, at the interval.

The maximum flow rate that can be serviced by a link for a particular movement Qmax in the absence of a control device. It is specified by the analyst as an estimate of link capacity, based upon a field survey, with reference to the HCM.

R The factor that is applied to the capacity of a link to represent the "capacity drop" when the flow condition moves into the forced flow regime. The lower capacity at that point is equal to RQmax.

RCap The remaining capacity available to service vehicles of a particular movement after that queue has been completely serviced, within a time interval, expressed as vehicles.

Sx Service rate for movement x, vehicles per hour (vph).

tl Vehicles of a particular turn movement that enter a link over the first t 1 seconds of a time interval, can reach the stop-bar (in the absence of a queue down-stream) within the same time interval.

TI The time interval, in seconds, which is used as the simulation time step.

v The mean speed of travel, in feet per second (fps) or miles per hour (mph), of moving vehicles on the link.

VQ The mean speed of the last vehicle in a queue that discharges from the link within the TI. This speed differs from the mean speed of moving vehicles, v.

W The width of the intersection in feet. This is the difference between the link length which extends from stop-bar to stop-bar and the block length.

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The formulation and the associated logic presented below are designed to solve the unit problem for each sweep over the network (discussed below), for each turn movement serviced on each link that comprises the evacuation network, and for each TI over the duration of the evacuation.

Gie=Qb, Mb, L, TI, Eo,LN, G/C , h, Lv, Ro,Lc,E, Compute 0 , Qe , Me Define 0= OQ +0M +OE ; E =E 1 +E 2

1. For the first sweep, s = 1, of this TI, get initial estimates of mean density, k0 , the R - factor, Ro and entering traffic, Eo, using the values computed for the final sweep of the prior TI.

For each subsequent sweep, s >1, calculate E =

• P1 0i + S where P1 , Oi are the relevant turn percentages from feeder link, i, and its total outflow (possibly metered) over this TI; S is the total source flow (possibly metered) during the current TI.

Set iteration counter, n = 0, k k, and E = E0 .

2. Calculate v (k) such that k _<130 using the analytical representations of the fundamental diagram.

Calculate Cap - Qmx(I (G/c) LN ,in vehicles, this value may be reduced due to metering SetR = 1.0Oif G/C <1 orifk_< k; Set R =0.9 onlyif G/C = l and k~k LL 3.Clult 3.CluaetV 1 T-TI-.I If t 1 < 0 set t1 = E1= 0O.= 0 ; Else, E1 = E t2*W

4. Then E2 = E- E 1 ; t 2 = TI -t 1

5. If Qb Ž Cap,then OQ= Cap,O0 M = O = 0 If t 1 >0,then Q'e = Qb +- Mb +- E1 - Cap Else Q'e =Qb - Cap End if Calculate Qe and Me using Algorithm A (below)

6. Else (Qb < Cap)

OQ =Qb, RCap =Cap- OQ

7. If Mb < Reap,then Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station c-10 KLD Engineering, P.c.

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0

8. If t, > 0, M =Mb,O0E = min(Reap -Mb, T-i7) Ž>0 Q'e = E1-OF If Q'e > 0 ,then Calculate Qe, Me with Algorithm A Else 0

Qe = , Me =E 2 End if Else (t1 = 0) 0 0 M = (y(TD)-Lb.* Mb and E =0 Me = Mb-- 0 M-I+ E; Qe--

End if

9. Else (Mb > RCap)

OE0 If t 1 >0, then 0M =RCap, Qe = Mb -- OM+-E, Calculate Qe and Me using Algorithm A

10. Else (t1 0)

Md =[(*L--- ) Mb]

If Md > RCap, then OM= Reap Qe= Md -0 Apply Algorithm A to calculate Qe and Me Else 0

Me=Mb-- M +E and Qe =0 End if End if End if End if

11. Calculate a new estimate of average density, kn = 4 k m+k]

where kb = density at the beginning of the TI ke = de nsity at the end of the TI km = density at the mid-point of the TI All values of density apply only to the moving* vehicles.

If jkn - k'n- >E*and n <N where N = max number of iterations, and e is a convergence criterion, then Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station c-ia KLD Engineering, P.c.

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12. set n =n + 1 , and return to step 2 to perform iteration, n, using k = kn

• End if Computation of unit problem is now complete. Check for excessive inflow causing spillback.

13.f Q+Me(L-W) LN then The number of excess vehicles that cause spiliback is: SB = Qe + Me (L-W). LN where W is the width of the upstream intersection. To prevent spillback, meter the outflow from the feeder approaches and from the source flow, S, during this TI by the amount, SB. That is, set SB M = 1 (- +)> 0 ,where M is the metering factor (over all movements).

This metering factor is assigned appropriately to all feeder links and to the source flow, to be applied during the next network sweep, discussed later.

Algorithm A This analysis addresses the flow environment over a TI during which moving vehicles can

"* I*join a standing or discharging queue. For the case Qb VQQeshown, Qb < Cap, with t1 > 0Oand a queue of

• ~ length, Q'e, formed by that portion of Mb and E i ~that reaches the stop-bar within the TI, but could

'. ,_ not discharge due to inadequate capacity. That is, Mb Qb + Mb + E1 > Cap. This queue length, V L3 Q'e = Qb +Mb+ElF.1--Cap can be extended to Qe

_* by traffic entering the approach during the current jrJt3ITI, traveling at speed, v, and reaching the rear of the

• [*[

,-I*

• queue3 within the TI. A portion of the entering T I ehilesE3 - ETI' will likely join the queue. This analysis calculates t 3 ,'Qe and Me for the input values of L,TI, v, E, t, Lv, LN, Qg.

When t1 > 0 and Qb -<Cap:

Define: L'e = Q'e . From the sketch, L3 = v(TI - t1 - t3 ) -- L - (Q'e +¢ -3 )

• Substituting E3 = E yields: - vt 3 + E - = L - v(TI - t1 ) - L'e.* Recognizing that the first two terms on the right hand side cancel, solve for t3 to obtain:

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t3 E Lv such that 0__t 3 _*TI-t 1 If the denominator, [v - j *0,

_< set t 3 = TI - t1 .

t3~( tl +t 3 )

Then, Qe=Q'++/-E T Me=E_ T-/

The complete Algorithm A considers ali flow scenarios; space limitation precludes its inclusion, here.

C.1.3 Lane Assignment The "unit problem" is solved for each turn movement on each link. Therefore it is necessary to calculate a ae, LNx, of allocated lanes for each movement, x. If in fact all lanes are specified by, say, arrows painted on the pavement, either as full lanes or as lanes within a turn bay, then the problem is fully defined. If however there remain un-channelized lanes on a link, then an analysis is undertaken to subdivide the number of these physical lanes into turn movement specific virtual lanes, LNx.

C.2 Implementation C.2.1 Computational Procedure The computational procedure for this model is shown in the form of a flow diagram as Figure C-4. As discussed earlier, the Simulation model processes traffic flow for each link independently over TI that the analyst specifies; it is usually 60 seconds or longer. The first step is to execute an algorithm to define the sequence in which the network links are processed so that as many links as possible are processed after their feeder links are processed, within the same network sweep. Since a general network will have many closed loops, it is not possible to guarantee that every link processed will have all of its feeder links processed earlier.

The processing then continues as a succession of time steps of duration, TI, until the simulation is completed. Within each time step, the processing performs a series of "sweeps" over all network links; this is necessary to ensure that the traffic flow is synchronous over the entire network. Specifically, the sweep ensures continuity of flow among all the network links; in the context of this model, this means that the values of E, M, and S are all defined for each link such that they represent the synchronous movement of traffic from each link to all of its outbound links. These sweeps also serve to compute the metering rates that control spillback.

Within each sweep, processing solves the "unit problem" for each turn movement on each link.

With the turn movement percentages for each link provided by the DTRAD model, an algorithm Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station C-13 KLD Engineering, P.c.

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allocates the number of lanes to each movement serviced on each link. The timing at a signal, if any, applied at the downstream end of the link, is expressed as a G/C ratio, the signal timing needed to define this ratio is an input requirement for the model. The model also has the capability of representing, with macroscopic fidelity, the actions of actuated signals responding to the time-varying competing demands on the approaches to the intersection.

The solution of the unit problem yields the values of the number of vehicles, 0, that discharge from the link over the time interval and the number of vehicles that remain on the link at the end of the time interval as stratified by queued and moving vehicles: Qe and Me. The procedure considers each movement separately (multi-piping). After all network links are processed for a given network sweep, the updated consistent values of entering flows, E; metering rates, M; and source flows, S are defined so as to satisfy the "no spillback" condition.

The procedure then performs the unit problem solutions for all network links during the following sweep.

Experience has shown that the system converges (i.e. the values of E, M and S "settle down" for all network links) in just two sweeps if the network is entirely under-saturated or in four sweeps in the presence of extensive congestion with link spillback. (The initial sweep over each link uses the final values of E and M, of the prior TI). At the completion of the final sweep for a TI, the procedure computes and stores all measures of effectiveness for each link and turn movement for output purposes. It then prepares for the following time interval by defining the values of Qb and Mb for the start of the next TI as being those values of Qe and Me at the end of the prior TI. In this manner, the simulation model processes the traffic flow over time until the end of the run. Note that there is no space-discretization other than the specification of network links.

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Figure C-4. Flow of Simulation Processing (See Glossary: Table C-3)

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C.2.2 Interfacing with Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTRAD)

The DYNEV II system reflects NRC guidance that evacuees will seek to travel in a general direction away_ from the location of the hazardous event. Thus, an algorithm was developed to identify an appropriate set of destination nodes for each origin based on its location and on the expected direction of travel. This algorithm also supports the DTRAD model in dynamically varying the Trip Table (O-D matrix) over time from one DTRAD session to the next.

Figure B-i depicts the interaction of the simulation model with the DTRAD model in the DYNEV II system. As indicated, DYNEV II performs a succession of DTRAD "sessions"; each such session computes the turn link percentages for each link that remain constant for the session duration,

[To ,T 2 ], specified by the analyst. The end product is the assignment of traffic volumes from each origin to paths connecting it with its destinations in such a way as to minimize the network-wide cost function. The output of the DTRAD model is a set of updated link turn percentages which represent this assignment of traffic.

As indicated in Figure B-i, the simulation model supports the DTRAD session by providing it with operational link MOE that are needed by the path choice model and included in the DTRAD cost function. These MOE represent the operational state of the network at a time, T1 _*T2 , which lies within the session duration, [To ,T 2] . This "burn time", T1 - T0 , is selected by the analyst. For each DTRAD iteration, the simulation model computes the change in network operations over this burn time using the latest set of link turn percentages computed by the DTRAD model. Upon convergence of the DTRAD iterative procedure, the simulation model accepts the latest turn percentages provided by the DTA model, returns to the origin time, To , and executes until it arrives at the end of the DTRAD session duration at time, T2

• At this time the next DTA session is launched and the whole process repeats until the end of the DYNEV II run.

Additional details are presented in Appendix B.

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APPENDIX D Detailed Description of Study Procedure

D. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF STUDY PROCEDURE This appendix describes the activities that were performed to compute Evacuation Time Estimates. The individual steps of this effort are represented as a flow diagram in Figure D-1.

Each numbered step in the description that follows corresponds to the numbered element in the flow diagram.

step 1 The first activity was to obtain EPZ boundary information and create a GIS base map. The base map extends beyond the Shadow Region which extends approximately 15 miles (radially) from the power plant location. The base map incorporates the local roadway topology, a suitable topographic background and the EPZ boundary.

step 2 2010 Census block information was obtained in GIS format. This information was used to estimate the resident population within the EPZ and Shadow Region and to define the spatial distribution and demographic characteristics of the population within the study area. Data for employees, transients', schools, and other facilities were obtained from local emergency management agencies.

Step_ 3 A kickoff meeting was conducted with major stakeholders (state and local emergency managers, on-site and off-site utility emergency managers, local and state law enforcement agencies). The purpose of the kickoff meeting was to present an overview of the work effort, identify key agency personnel, and indicate the data requirements for the Study. Specific requests for information were presented to local emergency managers. Unique features of the study area were discussed to identify the local concerns that should be addressed by the ETE study.

step 4 Next, a physical survey of the roadway system in the study area was conducted to determine the geometric properties of the highway sections, the channelization of lanes on each section of roadway, whether there are any turn restrictions or special treatment 'of traffic at intersections, the type and functioning of traffic control devices, gathering signal timings for pre-timed traffic signals, and to make the necessary observations needed to estimate realistic values of roadway capacity.

steps5 A telephone survey of households within the EPZ was conducted to identify household dynamics, trip generation characteristics, and evacuation-related demographic information of the EPZ population. This information was used to determine important study factors including the average number of evacuating vehicles used by each household, and the time required to perform pre-evacuation mobilization activities.

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step 6 A computerized representation of the physical roadway system, called a link-node analysis network, was developed using the UNITES software developed by KLD. Once the geometry of the network was completed, the network was calibrated using the information gathered during the road survey (Step 4). Estimates of highway capacity for each link and other link-specific characteristics were introduced to the network description. Traffic signal timings were input accordingly. The link-node analysis network was imported into a GIS map. 2010 Census data were overlaid in the map, and origin centroids where trips would be generated during the evacuation process were assigned to appropriate links.

step 7 The EPZ is subdivided into 12 sub-areas. Based on wind direction and speed, Regions (groupings of sub-areas) that may be advised to evacuate, were developed.

The need for evacuation can occur over a range of time-of-day, day-of-week, seasonal and weather-related conditions. Scenarios were developed to capture the variation in evacuation demand, highway capacity and mobilization time, for different time of day, day of the week, time of year, and weather conditions.

step 8 The input stream for the DYNEV II model, which integrates the dynamic traffic assignment and distribution model, DTRAD, with the evacuation simulation model, was created for a prototype evacuation case - the evacuation of the entire EPZ for a representative scenario.

step 9 After creating this input stream, the DYNEV II System was executed on the prototype evacuation case to compute evacuating traffic routing patterns consistent with the appropriate NRC guidelines. DYNEV II contains an extensive suite of data diagnostics which check the completeness and consistency of the input data specified. The analyst reviews all warning and error messages produced by the model and then corrects the database to create an input stream that properly executes to completion.

The model assigns destinations to all origin centroids consistent with a (general) radial evacuation of the EPZ and Shadow Region. The analyst may optionally supplement and/or replace these model-assigned destinations, based on professional judgment, after studying the topology of the analysis highway network. The model produces link and network-wide measures of effectiveness as well as estimates of evacuation time.

step 10 The results generated by the prototype evacuation case are critically examined. The examination includes observing the animated graphics (using the EVAN software which operates on data produced by DYNEV II) and reviewing the statistics output by the model. This is a labor-intensive activity, requiring the direct participation of skilled engineers who possess the necessary practical experience to interpret the results and to determine the causes of any problems reflected in the results.

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Essentially, the approach is to identify those bottlenecks in the network that represent locations where congested conditions are pronounced and to identify the cause of this congestion. This cause can take many forms, either as excess demand due to high rates of trip generation, improper routing, a shortfall of capacity, or as a quantitative flaw in the way the physical system was represented in the input stream. This examination leads to one of two conclusions:

• The results are satisfactory; or

• The input stream must be modified accordingly.

This decision requires, of course, the application of the user's judgment and experience based upon the results obtained in previous applications of the model and a comparison of the results of the latest prototype evacuation case iteration with the previous ones. If the results are satisfactory in the opinion of the user, then the process continues with Step 13. Otherwise, proceed to Step 11.

There are many "treatments" available to the user in resolving apparent problems. These treatments range from decisions to reroute the traffic by assigning additional evacuation destinations for one or more sources, imposing turn restrictions where they can produce significant improvements in capacity, changing the control treatment at critical intersections so as to provide improved service for one or more movements, or in prescribing specific treatments for channelizing the flow so as to expedite the movement of traffic along 'major roadway systems. Such "treatments" take the form of modifications to the original prototype evacuation case input stream. All treatments are designed to improve the representation of evacuation behavior.

As noted above, the changes to the input stream must be implemented to reflect the modifications undertaken in Step 11. At the completion of this activity, the process returns to Step 9 where the DYNEV II System is again executed.

Evacuation of transit-dependent evacuees and special facilities are included in the evacuation analysis. Fixed routing for transit buses and for school buses, ambulances, and other transit vehicles are introduced into the final prototype evacuation case data set. DYNEV II generates route-specific speeds over time for use in the estimation of evacuation times for the transit dependent and special facility population groups.

step 14 The prototype evacuation case was used as the basis for generating all region and scenario-specific evacuation cases to be simulated. This process was automated through the UNITES user interface. For each specific case, the population to be evacuated, the trip generation distributions, the highway capacity and speeds, and other factors are adjusted to produce a customized case-specific data set.

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step 15 All evacuation cases are executed using the DYNEV IISystem to compute ETE. Once results were available, quality control procedures were used to assure the results were consistent, dynamic routing was reasonable, and traffic congestion/bottlenecks were addressed properly.

step 16 Once vehicular evacuation results are accepted, average travel speeds for transit and special facility routes were used to compute evacuation time estimates for transit-dependent permanent residents, schools, hospitals, and other special facilities.

step 17 The simulation results are analyzed, tabulated and graphed. The results were then documented, as required by NUREG/CR-7002.

step 18 Following the completion of documentation activities, the ETE criteria checklist (see Appendix N) was completed. An appropriate report reference is provided for each criterion provided in the checklist.

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Step 1 StpEstablish Transit and Special Facility Evacuation IICreate

~Step and Calibrate Link-Node Analysis Network Routes and Update DYNEV II Database 13 4Step

• I

• Step 14 7 Generate DYNEV IIInput Streams for All DeveopEvacuation Regiosandcenarios Evacuation Cases Step 8 Step 15

~Execute DYNEV IIto Compute ETE for All S Create and DbgDYNEV II IptStream Evacuation Cases B Exeute IorPott 4xct YNEVII fr Prt~vauaI~sZI1 pe Ste 9vcainCs SStep Use DYNEV II Average Speed Output to Compute 1

ETE for Transit and Special Facility Routes

~Step 17 I ~Documentation Step 18 S Complete ETE Criteria Checklist Figure D-1. Flow Diagram of Activities Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station D-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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APPENDIX E Special Facility Data

E. SPECIAL FACILITY DATA The following tables list population information, as of June, 2012, for special facilities, transient attractions and major employers that are located within the PNPS EPZ. Special facilities are defined as schools, pre-schools/day cares, major employers, recreational areas, lodging facilities, correctional facilities and day camps. Transient population data is included in the tables for recreational areas and lodging facilities. Employment data is included in the tables for major employers. The location of the facility is defined by its straight-line distance (miles) and direction (magnetic bearing) from the center point of the plant. Maps of each school, pre-school/day care, major employer, recreational area, lodging facility, correctional facility and day camp are also provided.

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Table E-1. Schools within the EPZ 1 2.1 SE Manomet Elementary School 70 Manomet Point Road Plymouth (508) 830-4380 375 52 2 4.3 5SE IncahBookl lmetr 1181 State Road Plymouth (508) 830-4370 770 70 2 4.8 SSW Plymouth South High School 490 Long Pond Road Plymouth (508) 224-752:3 1,531 212 2 4.4 SSW Plymouth South Middle 48LogPnRodlyut(5)24-75 500 School48LogPnRodPyot{5822-25 707 3 4.2 W Mount Pleasant School 22 1/2 Whiting Street Plymouth (508) 830-4347 142 35 3 NatW Shanil MroElmnay6 Lincoln Street Plymouth (508) 830-4320 636 90 3 4.2 W Schyoutol mnt 3nPlymouith Schommuit 117 Long Pond Road Plymouth (508) 830-4450 1,277 191 3 3.7 W Plymouth North High School 41 Obery Street Plymouth (508) 830-4400 1,116 171 5 New1estaentChritia 1120 Long Pond Road Plymouth (508) 888-1889 111 23 5 7.7 S South Elementary School 178 Bourne Road Plymouth (508) 830-4390 755 90 6 7.8 WSW Federal Furnace School 860 Federal Furnace Road Plymouth (508) 830-4360 460 101 6 7.7 WSW Woodside School and 1 ComuntyReoureSener 34 Southers Marsh Lane Plymouth (508) 830-3384 48 1 7 5.3 WNW SChold pigEeetr 26 Alden Street Plymouth (508) 830-4335 258 36 Schoolh 7 6.0 WNW Hedge Elementary School 258 Standish Street North0-34 262 Plymouth (5883-30 269 7 6.7 W Pilgrim Academy 42 Industrial Park Road North4-686 5 9

__________________________Plymouth (0874-66 5 7

7 6.9 W

~~~~~~Rising School Tide Charter Public 6Rsi 6Rsi odPyot odPyot S8 58 4-60 4-60 304 304 7 7.2 W West Elementary School 170 Plympton Road Plymouth (508) 830-4350 478 81 8 7.9 WNW Kingston Elementary School 150 Main Street Kingston (781) 585-3821 675 1122 8 7.9 WNW Kingston Intermediate School 62 2nd Brook Street Kingston (781) 585-0472 709 67 Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station E-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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.*dLI[ U rI-dr L 8 8.2 w School 329 Bishops Highway Kingston (781) 585-2114 355 40 8 8.1 W Sacred Heart High School 399 Bishops Highway Kingston (781) 585-7511 462 68 8 11.7 WNW SiholvrLkReinlHg 256 Pembroke Street Kingston (781) 585-3844 1,251 150 8 11.6 WNW Siholve aeRgoa ide 256 Pembroke Street Kingston (781) 582-3555 610 74 9 8.9 NW Alden School 75 Alden Street Duxbury (781) 934-7630 822 106 9 10.4 NW Chandler Elementary School 93 Chandler Street Duxbury (781) 934-7680 642 126 9 8.0 NW Duxbury Bay Maritime School 457 Washington Street Duxbury (781) 934-7555 250 75 9 8.9 NW Duxbury High School 130 Saint Geo'rge Sreett Duxbury (781) 934-7650 1,017 148 9 8.9 NW Duxbury Middle School 71 Alden Street Duxbury (781) 934-7640 810 101 9 ~~~~~GoodShepherd Christian 2TeotSre uhr 71 3-07 182 9 9.0 WNW Academy 2TeotSre ubr 71 3-07 182 9 8.9 NW Pilgrim Area Collab. (High 9S8.9oNW 130 Saint George Street Duxbury (781) 934-9755 17 12 9 8.9 NW Pilgrim Area Collab. (Middle) 75 Alden Street Duxbury (781) 934-9755 5 6 9 8.9 NW Pilgrim Area Collaborative 130 Saint George Street Duxbury (781) 934-9755 17 12 10 9.9 NNW Gcovror EdadWnlw 60 Regis Road Marshfield (781) 834-5060 450 66 11 10.7 WSW Carver Elementary School 85 Main Street Carver (508) 866-6220 448 40 11 9.7 WSW Carver High School 60 South Meadow Road Carver (508) 866-6140 526 97 11 9.8 WSW Carver Middle School 60 South Meadow Road Carver (508) 866-6130 452 49 11 10.7 WSW ErinK.WahuroPimr 85 Main Street Carver (508) 866-6210 407 86 Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station E-3 Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

Table E-2. Preschools within the EPZ F 1 1____

1.4 1.4 WS SSE Garden of Knowledge Kinder Kollege j40 State RoadA*

478 State Road

-Plymouth' Plymouth 1(508) 830-6050 (508) 224-8753 440 30 5____

1 2.3 SE Leaping Frogs Preschool 21 Manomet Point Road Plymouth (508) 224-4999 20 4 2 4.5 SSE Tiny Town Inc. 1226 State Road Plymouth (508) 224-7769 45 12 3 5.1 W CidesCrave41 Westerly Road Plymouth (508) 747-9281 20 3

________Learning Center 3 4.9 W PrshopSil&Jm 1 Park Place Plymouth (508) 591-7238 20 4 3 5.7 W KinderCare - Pilgrim Hill 24 Pilgrim Hill Road Plymouth (508) 830-0817 71 16 3 4.5 W Small Scholars Preschool 8 Town Square Plymouth (774) 454-7115 38 8 3

34.5 W ~~~~~~Room School 2 Grow Nursery 8Srn aePyot 8_SriganePlmoth_50) 58 4-113

_47-1__ 3 5 3Learning Safari Day Care 8 Natalie Way Plymouth (508) 830-6805 449 34.4 WSW & Preschool9 5 8.6 S Bright Ideas Preschool 24 Mountain Hill Road Plymouth (774) 413-7466 36 6 5 9.6 S Ponds Childcare Center 133 Raymond Road Plymouth (508) 759-1333 83 17 662 W Methodist Nursery 29 1/2 Carver Road Plymouth (508) 746-7063 30 3 6 __6.2_ W School 6 8.1 WSW Miss Jo Anne's Bright 204 S Meadow Road Plymouth (508) 747-4475 25 4 Begnnngs 7 61 W W Crayon College At 98 Nicks Rock Road Plymouth (508) 747-5437 399 6.1 WNW Plymouth9 7 7 KindRo are -Rcads 3 Richards Road Plymouth (508) 746-0612 55 15 8 6.7 WNW Crayon College Inc. 24 Main Street Kingston (781) 585-5437 55 11 Growth Unlimited 8 8.6 WNW Pecol7 Green St # 1 Kingston (781) 585-5864 30 6 8 9.5 WNW Little Peoples Country 25 Wapping Road Kingston (781) 582-1399 9 3

______ _____Day____________ ___________ _________ ____

Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station E-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

• I . - I -

- - * ** . - -- h** -

I I 8 8.5 W Sacred Heart Early 100 Childhood 251 Bishops Highway Kingston (781) 585-2290 12 8 10.9 WNW SouathiSoreEal 142 Pembroke Street Kingston (781) 585-0400 245 10 8 8.1 WNW Wooded ArsCid 168 Main Street Kingston (781) 585-0041 45 15 9 8.9 NW After School Club Alden 75 Alden Street Duxbury (781) 934-7530 35 5 9 8.5 WNW Bay Farm Montessori 145 Loring Road Duxbury (781) 934-7101 188 42 Academy 9 10.1 WNW Berrybrook School 267 Winter Street Duxbury (781) 585-2307 54 11 9 11.4 NW BcolueRvrMneor 484 Temple Street Duxbury (781) 834-4480 10 3 9 10.4 NW Breakfast Club Chandler 93 Chandler Sreet Duxbury (781) 934-7610 30 23 Cedarhill Retreat 9 6.8 NW Conference Center 346 Standish Street Duxbury (781) 934-2207 10 2 Daycare 9 11.2 WNW Discovery Corner 88 Lake Shore Drive Duxbury (N/A) 10 3 Daycare 9

9 10.5 NW

~~~~~~Elements School Montessori 22SumrSreDuuy(7158-229 21umeStetDxuy(8)5 -22193 9 -10.4 NW Junior Club Chandler 93 Chandler Sreet Duxbury (781) 934-7610 47 8 Kindergarten Ext 9 10.4 NW Chnlr93 Chandler Sreet Duxbury (N/A) 97 8 9 10.4 NW Magic Dragon Childrens 93CadeSreDuby(7194-61702 Center93CadeSeeDubr 7193-61 102 9 9.6 WNW Pied Piper Preschool 38 Kingstown Way Duxbury (781) 585-6843 49 10 9 8.9 NW Pilgrim Area Collab. 75 Alden Street Duxbury (781) 934-7430 8 7 (Alden) 9 10.4 NW PianlgrmAear oab 93 Chandler Sreet Duxbury (781) 582-0305 13 11 9PilrimsChold Cae404 Washington Street Duxbury (781) 934-8145 76 23 Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station E-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

• I - I-I J I ~

vv South Shore Cons Preschool I ~ c.~ini ~ c*root I ~ I (MIM I J*

I A 11 10.5 WSW Capt Pal Pre School 15 Main Street Carver (508) 866-5415 30 5 1 1.7 WW Cranberry Crossing Day 42 North Main Street Carver (508) 866-2400 586 Care 11 11.7 W Kids Count Day School 185 Plymouth Street Carver (508) 866-9737 39 5 11 10.7 WSW Kidstop..Early Childhood 90 Main Street Carver (508) 866-9200 92 18 Center 11 10.7 WSW Old Colony YMCA 85 Main Street Carver (508) 833-4796 80 8 S . *" TOTAL: 2,264 419 Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station E-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

Table E-3. Medical Facilities within the EPZ 2 4.5 t-lgn i-olnt I reatment 1233 State Rd SSE Center Plymouth (508) 746-2000 I 219 210 111 2 44 3 4.7 WN Chilton House Inc. 3 Chilton Street Plymouth (508) 224-7701 4 4021 108 3 2.8 W Emeritus 97 Warren Avenue Plymouth (508) 746-4343 10 7 58 3 3 3.6 W Golden Liying Center- 19 Obery Street

____Plymouth Plymouth (508) 746-2999 15 30 50225 3 3.5 W Jordan Hospital 275 Sandwich St Plymouth (781) 585-2200 15 49 79391 3 4.0 W Life Care Center of 94OeySre

___Plymouth 9ObrStet Plymouth N/A 23 04 65 796 3 4.6 W Newfield House 19 Newfield Street Plymouth (781) 585-2231 9 9157 3 3 4.1 W Plymouth Crossings 157 South Street Plymouth (781) 585-2200 9 9148 41 3 4.2 RaisHat ae 123 South Street Nursing Home Plymouth (508) 830-9990 28 28 98 96 3 3 4.4 W Stafford Hill Assisted 60StaffordStreet

___Living Plymouth (508) 224-6097 10 15 61 62 5 8.3 5W Team Works 225 Cutters Field Rd Plymouth (781) 585-5526 2 2111 5 4 7 6.3 WW Baird Center Group 16 Forest Avenue

___Home Plymouth (508) 747-4790 3 3519 97 7 6.6 W Community 130 Industrial Park45 Connections Inc. Road Plymouth (781) 585-6589 4 46 24 510 7 6.1 WW Cozy Corner ADHC LLC 94 Nicks Rock Road Plymouth (508) 746-2000 4 4122 49 7 6.5 W W Habilitation Assistance 434 Court Street Corporation Plymouth (508) 503-1457 8 8452618 8 11.8 W W Wingate at Silver Lake 17 Chipman Way Kingston (508) 224-7701 25 4 2 351

91. NW ByPath Rehabilitation 308 Kingstown Way Dubr 58 4-43 10 15 6 02 10.2 ~ ~& Nursing Center Dxuy (0)7673 1i 2 9 10.2 NW Duxbury House 298 Kingstown Way Duxbury (508) 747-9800 2 22 12 65 9 10.1 NW The Village At Duxbury 290 Kingstown Way Duxbury (508) 746-9733 6 5831 15 I 12 Rev. 1 Pilgrim Nuclear Pilgim Poer Ncler Satin KL EngneeingP.C KLD Engineering,Rev.

P.C.1 Evacuation TimePower Station Estimate Evacuation Time Estimate

Table E-4. Major Employers within the EPZ 1 0.1 SE Pilgrim Nuclear Station 600 Rocky Hill Road Plymouth (508) 830-7000 685 5%301 3 4.0 WS JR'sWholesale Club Shops at 5 Way Plymouth (508) 591-1009 75 2%18 3 .1HoeW odsTiMxx65Sop a iv Wy The Shops at (508) 747-9641 75 20%

3 41HmGod/JMx65SosaFieWyoFive W 15 3Mayflower Service Station 164 South Street Plymouth (508) 746-2009 50 5%

3 4.1 W Inc 3 3.8 Plymouth County 52 Obey S # Plymouth 508-747-2962 300 44%

Correctional Facility "' 132 3 4.4 WSW The Home Depot - Plymouth 39 Long Pond Road Plymouth (508) 830-6702 50 5% 3 5 7.9 SSW MCI Plymouth 1 Bumps Pond Road South Carver (508) 295-2647 100 44% 44 6 7.9 WSW South Shore Community 196 South Meadow Pyot 58 4-575 0 Action Council Road Plymuth_50 __74-75__5_3_ 15 7 6.7 W COF Corporation 77 Industrial Park Road Plymouth (800) 443-1920 80 30% 24 7 5.5 W Colonial Ford 147 Samoset Street Plymouth (508) 746-3400 50 60% 30 7 5.8 W Harvest Technologies 4 rso d#10 Pyot 58 3-507 0 Corporation 40GismR 0 lmuh (0)7270 54%30

-7 6reMeia loal<Null> <Null> <Null> 100 75%

60 W Productions 7 7 5.8 W SmartPack 40 Grissom Road Plymouth <Null> 250 85% 213 7 6.1 W Suncor Stainless, Inc. 70 Armstrong Road Plymouth (508) 732-9191 60 90% 54 7 6.0 W Tech-Etch Inc 45 Aldrin Road Plymouth (508) 747-0300 325 58% 189 Various (See Table E-1) Board of Education Various (See Table E-1) 2,474 44% 1,089 Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station E-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

Table E-5. Recreational Areas within the EPZ 1 1.8 WSW Plymouth Country Club 221 Warren Avenue Plymouth (508) 746-5001 38 15 2 2.8 SSE Briggs Playground 838 State Road Plymouth N/A 15 6 2 4.6 SSW Crosswinds Golf Club 424 Long Pond Road Plymouth (508) 224-6700 819 320 2 3.5 SW Forges Field 83 Jordan Road Plymouth (508) 732-9962 120 47 2 3.3 SSE Fresh Pond 220 Bartlett Road Plymouth N/A 25 10 2 4.4 SSE Manomet Recreation Facility State Road Plymouth (508) 747-2325 64 25 2 3.0 SSW Old Sandwich Golf Club 41 Doublebrook Road Plymouth (508) 209-2200 10 4 2 4.3 SSW Pinehills Golf Club 54 Clubhouse Drive Plymouth (508) 888-8700 33 13 2 2.3 SSE Stop and Shop Plaza State Road Plymouth (781) 837-1181 30 30 2 4.4 SSW Waverly Oaks Golf Club 444 Long Pond Road Plymouth N/A 415 162 3 3.9 W Avery Memorial Playground Nook Road Plymouth N/A 77 30 3 ~~~~~~Brewer Yacht Yards - Plymouth 14UinSrePlmuh (0)9-87 2510 3 4.3 W Marine14UintrePlmuh 50)9087 2610 3 4.4 W Brewster Gardens Water Street Plymouth (508) 747-4544 38 15 3 4.7 WNW Hedge House Museum 126 Water Street Plymouth N/A 14 5 3 2.8 WSW Howland House 33 Sandwich Road Plymouth (508) 746-8825 10 4 3 4.5 W Jenney Grist Mill Park 6 Spring Lane Plymouth (508) 746-6932 241 94 3 4.3 WSW JhArsrnMeoil 103 Long Pond Road Plymouth N/A 192 75

________Skating Rink 3 4.5 WNW Mayflower II Museum 137 Warren Avenue Plymouth (508) 866-2526 35 13 3 4.7 WNW Pilgrim Hall Museum 75 Court Street Plymouth (508) 866-2580 80 31 3 2.2 W Plymouth Plantation 137 Warren Avenue Plymouth N/A 1,050 410 3 2.3 W Plymouth Long Beach 1 Ryder Way Plymouth (508) 866-2526 433 169 3 4.4 WNW Plymouth Rock Water Street Plymouth (781) 837-3112 35 13 Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station E-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

4.14.2 Plymouth Yacht Club 34 Union Street Plymouth N/A 2Y U 3 5.7 W Shaw's Supermarket Plaza 20 Pilgrim Hill Road Plymouth (508) 746-3493 68 68 3 4.0 W Stephen's Field 132 Sandwich Street Plymouth N/A 23 9 3 4.7 WNW Town Wharf Enterprises Inc. 10 Town Wharf Plymouth (781) 585-9117 97 38 5 10.1 S Atlantic Country Club 450 Little Sandy Pond Road Plymouth (508) 830-3535 20 8 5 9.5 S Camp Bournedale 110 Valley Road Plymouth (508) 746-6200 117 46 5 7.8 S Camp Clark 200 Hedges Pond Road Plymouth (508) 747-4544 465 182 5 9.7 S Camp Massasoit 4 Elbow Pond Road Plymouth N/A 97 38 5 8.6 SSW Camp Squanto 200 Cutters Field Road Plymouth (508) 746-6877 428 167 5 7.2 SSE Ellisville Harbor State Park State Road Plymouth N/A 8 3 5 9.1 S Elmer E Raymond Playground 1138 Long Pond Road Plymouth N/A 4 2 5 7.3 SSE Indianhead Resort 1929 State Road Plymouth N/A 720 180 5 5.6 SSW Long Pond Public Beach and Boat5 Launch West Long Pond Road Plymouth (508) 224-6039 13 5 6.2 S Pinewoods Camp 80 Cornish Field Road Plymouth (508) 746-1622 256 100 5 10.5 S Sandy Pond Campground 834 Bourne Road Plymouth (508) 746-9590 571 223 5 8.6 S Shaw's Supermarket Plaza 2260 State Road Plymouth N/A 38 38 5 8.9 SSE Whitecliff Country Club White Cliff Drive Plymouth (508) 759-6644 20 8 5 5.7 SSW Wind-The Pines Girl Scout Center 190 West Long Pond Road Plymouth (781) 534-0249 320 125 6 6.7 SW College Pond Myles Standish State Park Plymouth N/A 255 100 6 7.2 WSW Ellis-Haven Campgrounds 531 Federal Furnace Road Plymouth (508) 747-4544 38 15 6 5.7 W Morton Park Little Pond Road Plymouth N/A 486 190 6 5.9 WSW Myles Standish State Forest 194 Cranberry Road Carver (508) 746-1622 1,060 414 6 8.4 W Pinewood Lodge Campground 190 Pinewood Road Plymouth (508) 224-2002 768 300 6 7.7 WSW Southers Marsh Golf Club 30 Southers Marsh Lane Plymouth (508) 746-7800 8 3 6 7.5 W Squirrel Run Country Club 32 Elderberry Drive Plymouth (508) 830-1199 61 24 6 8.2 WSW Village Link Golf Club 265 South Meadow Road Plymouth (508) 746-5001 61 24 Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station E-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

7 8.6 Camp Norse 112 Parting Ways Road Kingston (508) 747-1240 224 88 7 7 8.6 5.1 W WNW C~~ampna Nors NatonealhrMnm me n12PatntWy ttohe70 Allerton Road Ratinson Plymouth I(08t4714h248 N/A 35 13 7 5.1 WNW Nelson Memorial Park/Beach Nelson Street Plymouth (508) 759-9336 215 84 7 5.7 WNW Siever Field 112 Standish Avenue Plymouth (508) 833-2975 49 19 7 5.6 W Super Stop & Shop Plaza 127 Samoset Street Plymouth (781) 837-9617 66 66 7 5.9 WNW Veteran's Memorial Playground 219 Standish Avenue Plymouth (508) 746-1444 10 4 7 4.9 WNW Village Landing Marketplace 170 Water Street Plymouth (508) 746-4500 79 79 8 8.3 W Camp Mishannock 363 Bishops Highway Kingston (781) 934-9092 47 18 8 8.4 WNW Indian Pond Country Club 60 Country Club Way Kingston (508) 209-3000 148 58 9 9.0 NW Alden House Museum 105 Alden Street Duxbury (508) 746-9805 128 50 9 8.9 NW Art Complex Museum 189 Alden Street Duxbury N/A 128 50 9 12.7 NW Camp Wing 19 Myrtle Street Duxbury (508) 746-1620 520 203 9 6.8 NW Cedar Hill Retreat Center 346 Standish Street Duxbury N/A 12 5 9 8.1 NNW Duxbury Beach Gurnet Road Duxbury (508) 224-4858 4,526 1,768 9 8.4 NW Duxbury Yacht Club 70 Fairway Lane Duxbury (508) 746-7207 64 25 9 7.2 NW Myles Standish State Park Crescent Street Duxbury (508) 746-7100 128 50 9 9.5 NW North Hill Country Club 29 Merry Avenue Duxbury (781) 934-3249 128 50 10 10.7 NNW Brant Rock Beach Ocean Street Marshfield (508) 295-2117 653 255 10 10.4 NNW Green Harbor Marina 239 Dyke Road Marshfield (781) 934-2578 215 84 10 10.4 NNW Green Harbor Yacht Club 257 Dyke Road Marshfield (508) 747-6193 215 84 10 10.1 NNW Taylor Marine Corporation 95 Central Street Marshfield (781) 834-9115 215 84 11 11.2 SW Cachalot Scout Reservation SE Line Road South Carver (508) 746-0012 235 92 11 10.0 SW Shady Acres Campground 20 Shoestring Road Carver N/A 410 160 Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station E-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

Table E-6. Lodging Facilities within the EPZ A White Swan Bed and 146 Manomet Point Road 12 6 1 2.2 SE Breakfast Plymouth (508) 224-3759 1 2.2 5SFE Blue Spruce Motel 710 State Road Plymouth (508) 224-3990 58 29 3 ~~~~~~Above the Bay at Thornton 7 arnAeu lmuh (6)7608 3 3.0 W Adams House B&B 7 arnAeu lmuh (6)7608 3 4.2 W Blue Anchor Motel 7 Lincoln Street Plymouth (508) 746-9551 6 3 3 4.5 WNW By the Sea Bed & Breakfast 22 Winslow Street Plymouth (508) 830-9643 6 3 3 4.4 W Hilton Garden Inn Plymouth 4 Home Depot Drive Plymouth (781) 830-0200 122 61 3 4.6 W John Carver Inn & Spa 25 Summer Street Plymouth (508) 746-7100 160 100 3 2.2 W Pilgrim Sands Motel 150 Warren Ave Plymouth (508) 747-0900 126 63 3 4.are7eInnBeW&20 Chilton Street Plymouth (508) 746-2800 6 3 4.7 WNW Breakfast_____________

5 6.9 SSE A Beach House Oceanfront 45 Black Pond Lane Plymouth (508) 224-3517 2 1 7 Bes.WstrnWluWCld 180 Court Street Plymouth (508) 746-2222 112 56 5.2 WNW Spring 7 5.7 W Comfort Inn 155 Samoset St. (US 44) Plymouth (508) 746-2800 134 67 7 7.1 W Hampton Inn & Suites 10 Plaza Way Plymouth (508) 747-5000 329 165 7 49 W W Radisson Hotel Plymouth 180 Water Street Plymouth (508) 747-4900 95 190 4.9 WNW Harbor 8 7.9 WNW Plymouth Bay Inn and 149 Main Street Kingston (S08) 830-1849 50 25 Suites 9 ~~~~~Powder Point Bed &18PodrPitAeu Duur(7)93-2705 8.3 NNW Breakfast Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station E-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

Table E-7. Correctional Facilities within the EPZ 52 Obery St #1 Plymouth (508) 747-2962 1,600 3 3.8 W FcltPlymoutnl county correctional

' ::° , ... t* . ,, * *:*  %' * ' *: *: " - TO AL: 1,820 Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station E-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

Table E-8. Daycamps within the EPZ 7 8.6 L~d[Ip W Camp 112 Parting Ways Road Kingston (508) 286-9202 224 8 8 8.0 W Camp Mishannock 363 Bishops Highway Kingston (781) 585-8592 47 2 9 8.9 NW Before & After Dark 130 Saint George Street Duxbury (781) 934-7633 320 12 9 10.4 NW Magic Dragon Summer 93 Chandler Street Duxbury (781) 934-7671 138 6

______ _______Camp___________________

11 11.5 SW Camp Clear 40 Wareham Street Carver (508) 866-4549 70 4

.TOTAL: 799 32 Rev. 1 Pilgrim Nuclear Pilgim Ncler Poer Satin KL EngneeingP.C KLD Engineering, P.C.1 Evacuation TimePower Station Estimate Rev.

Evacuation Time Estimate

Schools Sthe f*:- ei Poweri NStlatiPon e SttEnEP 15.,

5 Miles Mies II Pilgrim Nuclear KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

Figure E-2. Pre-schools / Daycares within the EPZ Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station E-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

Figure E-3. Kingston Pre-schools/Daycares within the EPZ Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station E-17 KID Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

Figure E-4. Carver and Plymouth Pre-schools/Daycares within the EPZ Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station E-18 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

Figure E-5. Medical Facilities within the EPZ Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station E-19 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

Figure E-6. Major Employers within the EPZ Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station E-20 KID Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

Figure E-7. Recreational Areas within the EPZ Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station E-2 1 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

Figure E-8. Plymouth Recreational Areas within the EPZ Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station E-22 KID Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

Figure E-9. Lodging Facilities within the EPZ Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station E-23 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

Figure E-1O. Correctional Facilities within the EPZ Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station E-24 KID Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

Figure E-11. Day camps within the EPZ Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station E-25 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

APPENDIX F Telephone Survey

F. TELEPHONE SURVEY F.1 Introduction The development of evacuation time estimates for the Pilgrim EPZ requires the identification of travel patterns, car ownership and household size of the population within the EPZ.

Demographic information can be obtained from Census data. The use of this data has several limitations when applied to emergency planning. First, the Census data do not encompass the range of information needed to identify the time required for preliminary activities (mobilization) that must be undertaken prior to evacuating the area. Secondly, Census data do not contain attitudinal responses needed from the population of the EPZ and consequently may not accurately represent the anticipated behavioral characteristics of the evacuating populace.

These concerns are addressed by conducting a telephone survey of a representative sample of the EPZ population'. The survey is designed to elicit information from the public concerning family demographics and estimates of response times to well defined events. The design of the survey includes a limited number of questions of the form "What would you do if ...?" and other questions regarding activities with which the respondent is familiar ("How long does it take you to ... ?")

Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station F-i KLD Engineering, P.c.

w w w.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

F.2 Survey Instrument and Sampling Plan Attachment A presents the final survey instrument used in this study. A draft of the instrument was submitted to stakeholders for comment. Comments were received and the survey instrument was modified accordingly, prior to conducting the survey.

Following the completion of the instrument, a sampling plan was developed. A sample size of approximately 500 completed survey forms yields results with a sampling error of _+4.5% at the 95% confidence level. The sample must be drawn from the EPZ population. Consequently, a list of zip codes in the EPZ was developed using GIS software. This list is shown in Table F-i. Along with each zip code, an estimate of the population and number of households in each area was determined by overlaying Census data and the EPZ boundary, again using GIS software. The proportional number of desired completed survey interviews for each area was identified, as shown in Table F-i. Note that the average household size computed in Table F-i was an estimate for sampling purposes and was not used in the ETE study.

The completed survey adhered to the sampling plan.

Table F-1. Pilgrim Telephone Survey Sampling Plan

, " "S S _ - ,, *.. .. .- .

02050 2,319 922 13 02330 7,471 2,912 41 02332 15,097 5,359 76 02360 56,433 21,256 304 02364 12,620 4,660 66 02532 22 9 0 02571 2 1 0 Total 93,964 35,119 500 Average Household Size: 2.68 Total Sample Required: 500 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station F-2 F-2 Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

F.3 Survey Results The results of the survey fall into two categories. First, the household demographics of the area can be identified. Demographic information includes such factors as household size, automobile ownership, and automobile availability. The distributions of the time to perform certain pre-evacuation activities are the second category of survey results. These data are processed to develop the trip generation distributions used in the evacuation modeling effort, as discussed in Section 5.

A review of the survey instrument reveals that several questions have a "don't know" (DK) or "refused" entry for a response. It is accepted practice in conducting surveys of this type to accept the answers of a respondent who offers a DK response for a few questions or who refuses to answer a few questions. To address the issue of occasional DK/refused responses from a large sample, the practice is to assume that the distribution of these responses is the same as the underlying distribution of the positive responses. In effect, the OK/refused responses are ignored and the distributions are based upon the positive data that is acquired.

F.3.i Household Demographic Results Household Size Figure F-i presents the distribution of household size within the EPZ. The average household contains 2.56 people. The estimated household size (2.68 persons) used to determine the survey sample (Table F-i) was drawn from Census data. The close agreement between the average household size obtained from the survey and from the Census is an indication of the reliability of the survey.

Pilgrim Household Size 50%

40%

-~30%

20%

0 10%

0%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10+i Household Size Figure F-i. Household Size in the EPZ F-3 F-3 KLD Engineering, p.c.

Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

Automobile Ownership The average number of automobiles available per household in the EPZ is 2.09. It should be noted that 1.2 percent of households do not have access to an automobile. The distribution of automobile ownership is presented in Figure F-2. Figure F-3 and Figure F-4 present the automobile availability by household size. Note that the majority of households without access to a car are single person households. As expected, nearly all households of 2 or more people have access to at least one vehicle.

Pilgrim Vehicle Availability 60%

50%

340%

N 30%

t 20%

01 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9+

Number of Vehicles Figure F-2. Household Vehicle Availability Pilgim Ncler Poer Satin KL KLD EngneeingP-C Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.

Rv 1

Distribution of Vehicles by HH Size 1-5 Person Households l1Person *2 People *3People *4 People *5 People 100%

.*80%

S60%

• 40%

• 20%

0%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Vehicles Figure F-3. Vehicle Availability - 1 to 5 Person Households Distribution of Vehicles by HH Size 6-9+ Person Households

• 6 People E7 People8Pepe9+eol 8 People *9+ People 100%

.*80%

S60%

z 40%

20

~ 0%

,n%, ,

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Vehicles Figure F-4. Vehicle Availability - 6 to 9+ Person Households Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station F-5 KID Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

Ridesharing The overwhelming proportion (91%) of the households surveyed (who do not own a vehicle) responded that they would share a ride with a neighbor, relative, or friend if a car was not available to them when advised to evacuate in the event of an emergency. Note, however, that only those households with no access to a vehicle - 12 total out of the sample size of 500 -

answered this question. Thus, the results are not statistically significant. As such, the NRC recommendation of 50% ridesharing is used throughout this study. Figure F-5 presents this response.

Pilgrim Rideshare with Neighbor/Friend 100%

80%

-~60%

S40%

20%

0%

Yes No Figure F-5. Household Ridesharing Preference KLD Engineering, P.c.

Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station F-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.

Rv 1

Commuters Figure F-6 presents the distribution of the number of commuters in each household.

Commuters are defined as household members who travel to work or college on a daily basis.

The data shows an average of 1.16 commuters in each household in the EPZ, and 65% of households have at least one commuter.

Pilgrim Commuters 50%

40%

-*30%

0

'20%

0%

10%

01 2 34+

Number of Commuters Figure F-6. Commuters in Households in the EPZ KLD Engineering, P.c.

Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station F-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.1 Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.

Rv

Commuter Travel Modes Figure F-7 presents the mode of travel that commuters use on a daily basis. The vast majority of commuters use their private automobiles to travel to work. The data shows an average of 1.05 employees per vehicle, assuming 2 people per vehicle - on average - for carpools.

Pilgrim Travel Mode to Work 100% 89.6%

80%

S60%

E E

o 40%

06 20%

0%

Rail Bus Walk/Bike Drive Alone Carpool (2+)

Mode of Travel Figure F-7. Modes of Travel in the EPZ F.3.2 Evacuation Response Several questions were asked to gauge the population's response to an emergency. These are now discussed:

"How many of the vehicles would your household use during an evacuation?" The response is shown in Figure F-8. On average, evacuating households would use 1.37 vehicles.

"Would your family await the return of other family members prior to evacuating the area?"

Of the survey participants who responded, 38 percent said they would await the return of other family members before evacuating and 62 percent indicated that they would not await the return of other family members.

"If you had a household pet, would you take your pet with you if you were asked to evacuate the area?" Based on the responses to the survey, 29 percent of households have a family pet.

Of the households with pets, 92 percent of them indicated that they would take their pets with them, as shown in Figure F-9.

"When evacuating with your household pet, would you evacuate to a reception center if they do not accept pets?" As shown in Figure F-10, only 7 percent of households would evacuate to a reception center with their pet.i Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station F-8 KLD Engineering, P.c.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

Vehicles Used for Evacuation 100%

80%

S60%

S40%

0

'* 20%

0%

12 3 Number of Vehicles Figure F-8. Number of Vehicles Used for Evacuation Households Evacuating with Pets 100%

80%

40% m m0%

20%0m, Yes No Figure F-9. Households Evacuating with Pets Pilgim Ncler Poer Satin KL KLD EngneeingP.C Engineering, P.C.

Rev.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rv I

Households Evacuating with Pets to Reception Centers who do not Accept Pets 100%

,~80%

0

• ~60%

0 3= 40%

20%

0%'

Yes No Figure F-b0. Households evacuating with Pets to Care Centers "Emergency officials advise you to take shelter at home in an emergency. Would you?" This question is designed to elicit information regarding compliance with instructions to shelter in place. The results indicate that 81 percent of households who are advised to shelter in place would do so; the remaining 19 percent would choose to evacuate the area. Note the baseline ETE study assumes 20 percent of households will not comply with the shelter advisory, as per Section 2.5.2 of NUREG/CR-7002. Thus, the data obtained above is in good agreement with the federal guidance.

"Emergency officials advise you to take shelter at home now in an emergency and possibly evacuate later while people in other areas are advised to evacuate now. Would you?" This question is designed to elicit information specifically related to the possibility of a staged evacuation. That is, asking a population to shelter in place now and then to evacuate after a specified period of time. Results indicate that 71 percent of households would follow instructions and delay the start of evacuation until so advised, while the balance of 29 percent would choose to begin evacuating immediately.

F.3.3 Time Distribution Results The survey asked several questions about the amount of time it takes to perform certain pre-evacuation activities. These activities involve actions taken by residents during the course of their day-to-day lives. Thus, the answers fall within the realm of the responder's experience.

The mobilization distributions provided below are the result of having applied the analysis described in Section 5.4.1 on the component activities of the mobilization.

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"How long does it take the commuter to complete preparation for leaving work?" Figure F-li presents the cumulative distribution; in all cases, the activity is completed by about 75 minutes.

Ninety percent can leave within 30 minutes.

Figure F-il. Time Required to Prepare to Leave Work/School "How long would it take the commuter to travel home?" Figure F-12 presents the work to home travel time for the EPZ. About 90 percent of commuters can arrive home within about 60 minutes of leaving work; in all cases, the activity is completed by about 120 minutes.

Work to Home Travel 100%

80%

S60%

20%

0%

0 30 6012 90 120 Travel Time (min)

Figure F-12. Work to Home Travel Time Pilgim Ncler Poer Satin KL KLD Engneeing,-Ic Engineering, P.C.1 Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.

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"How long would it take the family to pack clothing, secure the house, and load the car?"

Figure F-13 presents the time required to prepare for leaving on an evacuation trip. In many ways this activity mimics a family's preparation for a short holiday or weekend away from home. Hence, the responses represent the experience of the responder in performing similar activities.

The distribution shown in Figure F-13 has a long "tail." About 90 percent of households can be ready to leave home within 75 minutes; the remaining households require up to three hours.

Time to Prepare to Leave Home 100%

80%

0* 60%

• 40% C, S20%

0%

0 30 60 90 120 150 18 180 Preparation Time (mai)

Figure F-13. Time to Prepare Home for Evacuation Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station F-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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"How long would it take you to clear 6 to 8 inches of snow from your driveway?" During adverse, snowy weather conditions, an additional activity must be performed before residents can depart on the evacuation trip. Although snow scenarios assume that the roads and highways have been plowed and are passable (albeit at lower speeds and capacities), it may be necessary to clear a private driveway prior to leaving the home so that the vehicle can access the street. Figure F-14 presents the time distribution for removing 6 to 8 inches of snow from a driveway. The time distribution for clearing the driveway has a long tail; about 90 percent of driveways are passable within 75 minutes. The last driveway is cleared three hours after the start of this activity. Note that those respondents (43%) who answered that they would not take time to clear their driveway were assumed to be ready immediately at the start of this activity. Essentially they would drive through the snow on the driveway to access the roadway and begin their evacuation trip.

Time to Remove Snow from Driveway 100%

80%

' 40%

20%

0%

0 30 60 90 120 150 180 Travel Time (min)

Figure F-14. Time to Clear Driveway of 6"-8" of Snow F.4 Conclusions The telephone survey provides valuable, relevant data associated with the EPZ population, which have been used to quantify demographics specific to the EPZ, and "mobilization time" which can influence evacuation time estimates.

Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station F-13 KLD Engineering, P.c.

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ATTACH MENT A Telephone Survey Instrument Pilgim Ncler Poer Satin KL EngneeingP.C KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Telephone Survey Instrument COL. 1 Unused Hello, my name is _______and I'm conducting a survey for COL. 2 Unused the Emergency Management Agencies of Carver, Duxbury, COL. 3 Unused Kingston, Marshfield and Plymouth municipalities. The COL. 4 Unused information you provide will be used for emergency planning to enhance local response plans. Emergency planning for some COL. 5 Unused hazards may require evacuation. Your answers to my questions Sex COL. 8 will greatly contribute to this effort. I will not ask for your name.

1 Male 2 Female INTERVIEWER: ASK TO SPEAK TO THE HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD OR THE SPOUSE OF THE HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD.

(Terminate call if not a residence.)

DO NOT ASK:

1A. Record area code. To Be Determined COL. 9-11 lB. Record exchange number. To Be Determined COL. 12-14

2. What is your home zip code? COL. 15-19 3A. In total, how many cars, or other vehicles are COL. 20 SKIP TO usually available to the household? 1 ONE Q. 4 (DO NOT READ ANSWERS) 2 TWO 0,. 4 3 THREE 0,.4 4 FOUR Q. 4 5 FIVE 0,.4 6 SIX Q. 4 7 SEVEN Q. 4 8 EIGHT Q. 4 9 NINE OR MORE Q. 4 0 ZERO (NONE) Q. 3B X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED Q. 3B 3B. In an emergency, could you get a ride out of the CCL. 21 area with a neighbor or friend? 1 YES 2 NO X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED

4. How many people usually live in this household? CCL. 22 CCL. 23 (DO NOT READ ANSWERS) 1. ONE 0 TEN 2 TWO 1 ELEVEN 3 THREE 2 TWELVE 4 FOUR 3 THIRTEEN 5 FIVE 4 FOURTEEN 6 SIX 5 FIFTENN Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station F-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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7 SEVEN 6 SIXTEEN 8 EIGHT 7 SEVENTEEN 9 NINE 8 EIGHTEEN 9 NINETEEN OR MORE X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED

5. How many adults in the household commute to a COL. 24 SKIP TO job, or to college on a daily basis? 0 ZERO Q. 9 1 ONE Q. 6 2 TWO Q. 6 3 THREE Q. 6 4 FOUR OR MORE Q. 6 5 DON'T KNOW/REFUSED Q. 9 INTERVIEWER: For each person identified in Question 5, ask Questions 6, 7, and 8.

6. Thinking about commuter #1, how does that person usually travel to Work or college? (REPEAT QUESTION FOR EACH COMMUTER)

Commuter #1 Commuter #2 Commuter #3 Commuter #4 COL. 25 COL. 26 COL. 27 COL. 28 Rail 1 1 1 1 Bus 2 2 2 2 Walk/Bicycle 3 3 3 3 Drive Alone 4 4 4 4 Carpool-2 or more people 5 5 5 5 Don't know/Refused 6 6 6 6

7. How much time on average, would it take Commuter #1 to travel home from work or college? (REPEAT QUESTION FOR EACH COMMUTER) (DO NOT READ ANSWERS)

COMMUTER #1 COMMUTER #2 COL. 29 COL. 30 COL. 31 COL. 32 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56-1 HOUR 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56- 1 HOUR OVER 1 HOUR, BUT OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 LESS THAN 1 HOUR MINUTES 15 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 S 21-25 MINUTES' 5 MINUTES ANDi1HOUR 5 21-25 MINUTES 5 MINUTES ANDi1 30 MINUTES HOUR 30 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 6 26-30OMINUTES 6 MINUTES ANDi1HOUR 6 26-30OMINUTES 6 MINUTES ANDi1 45 MINUTES HOUR 45 MINUTES Pilerim Nuclear Power Station F-16 KLD Eneineerine. P.C.

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BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 7 31-35 MINUTES 7 MINUTES AND 2 7 31-35 MINUTES 7 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS HOURS OVER 2 HOURS OVER 2 HOURS 8 36-40 MINUTES 8 36-40 MINUTES 8 (SPECIFY __ .)__ 8 (SPECIFY __)__

9 41-45 MINUTES 9 9 41-45 MINUTES 9 0 0 DON'T KNOW DON'T KNOW

/REFUSED /REFUSED COMMUTER #3 COMMUTER #4 COL. 33 COL. 34. COL. 35 COL. 36 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56 -1iHOUR 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56 -i1HOUR OVER 1 HOUR, BUT OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 LESS THAN1iHOUR MINUTES 15 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 5 21-25 MINUTES 5 MINUTES ANDi1HOUR 5 21-25 MINUTES 5 MINUTES ANDi1 30 MINUTES HOUR 30 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 6 26-30 MINUTES 6 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 6 26-30 MINUTES 6 MINUTES ANDi1 45 MINUTES HOUR 45 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 7 31-35 MINUTES 7 MINUTES AND 2 7 31-35 MINUTES 7 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS HOURS OVER 2 HOURS OVER 2 HOURS 8 36-40 MINUTES 8 36-40 MINUTES 8 (SPECIFY __ .)__ 8 (SPECIFY __)__

9 41-45 MINUTES 9 9 41-45 MINUTES 9 0 0 DON'T KNOW DON'T KNOW

/REFUSED IRE FUSED

8. Approximately how much time does it take Commuter #1 to complete preparation for leaving work or college prior to starting the trip home? (REPEAT QUESTION FOR EACH COMMUTER) (DO NOT READ ANSWERS)

COMMUTER #1 COMMUTER #2 COL. 37 COL. 38 COL. 39 COL. 40 1 5SMINUTES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56 -i1HOUR 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56 -i1HOUR OVER 1 HOUR, BUT OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 LESS THAN 1 HOUR MINUTES 15 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 5 21-25 MINUTES 5 MINUTES ANDi1HOUR 5 21-25 MINUTES 5 MINUTES ANDi1 30 MINUTES HOUR 30 MINUTES Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station F-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 6 26-30 MINUTES 6 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 6 26-30 MINUTES 6MINUTES ANDi1 45 MINUTES HOUR 45 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 7 31-35 MINUTES 7MINUTES AND 2 7 31-35 MINUTES 7MINUTES AND 2 HOURS HOURS OVER 2 HOURS OVER 2 HOURS 8 36-40 MINUTES 8 36-40 MINUTES 8 (SPECIFY ____) 8 (SPECIFY __)__

9 41-45 MINUTES 9 9 41-45 MINUTES 9 X DON'T KNOW /REFUSED X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED CO )MMUTER #3 COMMUTER #4 COL. 41 COL. 42 CO L. 43 COL. 44 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 1 5 MINUTES OR LEESS 1 46-SO MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56 -i2HOUR 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56 -i1HOUR OVER 1 HOUR, BUT OVER 1 HOUR, BUT LESS 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 4 16-20 MINUTES THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 5 21-25 MINUTES 5 MINUTES ANDi1HOUR 5 21-25 MINUTES 5 MINUTES AND 1HOUR 30 30 MINUTES MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 6 26-30 MINUTES 6 MINUTES ANDi2HOUR 6 26-30 MINUTES 6 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 45 MINUTES M NUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 7 31-35 MINUTES 7 MINUTES AND 2 7 31-35 MINUTES MINUTES AND 2 HOURS HOURS OVER 2 HOURS 8 36-40 MINUTES 8 36-40 MINUTES OVER 2 HOURS (SPECIFY 8 (SPECIFY ___.) 8 __________)

9 41-45 MINUTES 9 9 41-45 MINUTES 9 X X DON'T KNOW /REFUSED DON'T KNOW /REFUSED

9. If you were advised by local authorities to evacuate, how much time would it take the household to pack clothing, medications, secure the house, load the car, and complete preparations prior to evacuating the area? (DO NOT READ ANSWERS)

COL. 45 COL. 46 1 LESS THAN 15 MINUTES 1 3 HOURS TO 3 HOURS 15 MINUTES 2 15-30 MINUTES 2 3 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 3 HOURS 30 MINUTES 3 31-45 MINUTES 3 3 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 3 HOURS 45 MINUTES 4 46 MINUTES-i1 HOUR 4 3 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 4 HOURS 5 1 HOUR TO 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES 5 4 HOURS TO 4 HOURS 15 MINUTES 6 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES TO 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES 6 4 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 4 HOURS 30 MINUTES 7 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES TO 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES 7 4 HOURS 31 MINUTES 10 4 HOURS 45 MINUTES 8 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES 10 2 HOURS 8 4 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 5 HOURS Pilgim Ncler Poer Satin KL EngneeingP.C KLD Engineering, P.C.

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9 2 HOURS TO02 HOURS 15 MINUTES 9 5 HOURS TO 5 HOURS 30 MINUTES 0 2 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 30 MINUTES 0 5 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 6 HOURS X 2 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 45 MINUTES X OVER 6 HOURS (SPECIFY __)__

Y 2 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 3 HOURS COL. 47 1 DON'T KNOW/REFUSED 10 If there is 6-8" of snow on your driveway or curb, would you need to shovel out to evacuate? If yes, how much time, on average, would it take you to clear the 6-8" of snow to movethe car from the driveway or curb to begin the evacuation trip? Assume the roads are passable. (DO NOT READ RESPONSES)-

COL. 48 COL. 49 1 LESS THAN 15 MINUTES 1 OVER 3 HOURS (SPECIFY____

2 15-30 MINUTES 2 DON'T KNOW/REFUSED 3 31-45 MINUTES 4 46 MINUTES-i1 HOUR 5 1 HOUR TO 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES 6 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES TO 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES 7 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES TO 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES 8 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 9 2 HOURS TO 2 HOURS iS MINUTES 0 2 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 30 MINUTES X 2 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 45 MINUTES Y 2 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 3 HOURS Z NO, WILL NOT SHOVEL OUT

11. Please choose one of the following (READ COL. 50 ANSWERS): 1 A A. I would await the return of household commuters to evacuate together. 2 B B. I would evacuate independently and meet X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED other household members later.

12. How many vehicles would your household use during an evacuation? (DO NOT READ ANSWERS)

COL. 51 1 ONE 2 TWO 3 THREE 4 FOUR 5 FIVE 6 SIX 7 SEVEN 8 EIGHT 9 NINE OR MORE Pilg~rim Nuclear Power Station F-19 KLD Eng~ineering. P.C.

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0 ZERO (NONE)

X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED 13A. Emergency officials advise you to take shelter at home in *in COL. 52 emergency. Would you: (READ ANSWERS) 1 A A. SHELTER; or 2 B B. EVACUATE X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED 138. Emergency officials advise you to take shelter at home now COL. 53 in an emergency and possibly evacuate later while people in 1 A other areas are advised to evacuate now. Would you: (READ 2 B ANSWERS)

A. SELTE; orX DON'T KNOW/REFUSED B. EVACUATE 14A. If you have a household pet, would you take your pet with you if you were asked to evacuate the area? (READ ANSWERS)

COL. 54 SKIP TO 1 DON'T HAVE APET END SURVEY 2 YES Q. 14B 3 NO END SURVEY X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED END SURVEY 148 When evacuating with your household pet, would you evacuate to COL. 55 a reception center if they do not accept pets? (READ ANSWERS) 1 YES 2 NO, WOULD REMAIN AT HOME NO, WOULD EVACUATE TO A 3 LOCATION WHERE I COULD TAKE MY PET X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED Thank you very much. _________________

(TELEPHONE NUMBER CALLED)

IFREQUESTED:

For additional information, contact your Municipality Emergency Management Agency during normal business hours.

I Municipality EMA Phone Massachusetts (508) 820-2000 Pilgim Ncler Poer Satin KL KLD EngneeingP.C Engineering, P.C.

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APPENDIX G Traffic Management Plan

G. TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT PLAN NUREG/CR-7002 indicates that the existing TCPs and ACPs identified by the offsite agencies should be used in the evacuation simulation modeling. The traffic and access control plans for the EPZ were provided by the state.

These plans were reviewed and the TCPs were modeled accordingly.

G.1 Traffic Control Points As discussed in Section 9, traffic control points at intersections (which are controlled) are modeled as actuated signals. If an intersection has a pre-timed signal, stop, or yield control, and the intersection is identified as a traffic control point, the control type was changed to an actuated signal in the DYNEV II system. Table K-2 provides the control type and node number for those nodes which are controlled. If the existing control was changed due to the point being a Traffic Control Point, the control type is indicated as a "TCP" in Table K-2.

Figure G-1 maps the TCPs identified in the state emergency plans. Theses TCPs would be manned during evacuation by traffic guides who would, direct evacuees in the proper direction and facilitate the flow of* traffic through the intersections.

As discussed in Section 7.3, the animation of evacuation traffic conditions indicates several critical intersections which could be bottlenecks during evacuation. These critical intersections were cross-checked with the state emergency plans. All of the intersections, except one - Route 28 and Tihonet Road - were identified as TCPs in the state plan. As discussed in Section 7.3, this intersection remains congested beyond the completion of mobilization (trip generation) time.

It is recommended that the state consider this intersection as a TCP as shown in Figure G-2. This would discourage traffic flow northbound and eastbound towards the EPZ and would aid with the severe congestion on Tinhonet Road southbound coming from the EPZ.

G.2 Access Control Points It is assumed that ACPs will be established within 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> of the advisory to evacuate to discourage through travelers from using major through routes which traverse the EPZ. As discussed in Section 3.7, external traffic was only considered on three routes which traverse the study area - Route 3, Route 25, and 1-195 - in this analysis. The generation of these external trips on Route 3 is ceased at 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> after the advisory to evacuate in the simulation.

According to the Town's emergency plans, access control points will be manned by the Massachusetts State Police after the advisory to evacuate has been given. It is recommended that ACPs Route 3 and US-44 be the top priority in assigning manpower and equipment as they are the major routes traversing the EPZ and will carry the highest volume of through traffic.

Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station G-1 KLD Engineering, P.c.

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Figure G-1. PNPS Traffic Control Points G-2 KLD Engineering. P.C.

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Key MUNICIPALITY: Wareham, MA TCP -~MOVEMENT FACILITATED I* MOVEMENT DISCOURAGED/DIVERTED LOCATION:L Route 28 &Tiqhonet Road TRAFFIc GUIDE ID: 1 SUB-AREA: Shadow 2 PER LANE (LOCAL ROADS AND RAMPS)

Tihonet Road 4PER LANE (FEWYAND RAMPS)

O TRAFFIC SIGNAL

• TRAFFIC CONES SPACED TO wIRoute 28 DISCOURAGE TRAFFIC BUT ALLOW PASSAGE (3 PER LANE): *0 ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN

1. Discourage eastbound traffic on State Route 45

2. Discourage northbound traffic on Tlihonet Road

3. Facilitate southbound movement 4 0e along Tihonet Rd to access Route 28 westbound MANPOWER/EOUIPMENT ESTIMATE 1 Traffic Guide(s) 6 Traffic Cones LOCATION PRIORITY 1

A **Traffic Guide should position himself safely Figure 6-2. Schematic of the TCP at Route 28 and Tihonet Road Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station G-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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9 TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT STRATEGY This section discusses the suggested traffic control and management strategy that is designed to expedite the movement of evacuating traffic. The resources required to imp~lement this strategy include:

• Personnel with the capabilities of performing the planned control functions of traffic guides (preferably, not necessarily, law enforcement officers).

o Traffic Control Devices to assist these personnel in the performance of their tasks. These devices should comply with the guidance of the Manual of Uniform Traffic Control Devices (MUTCD) published by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) of the U.S.D.O.T. All state transportation agencies have access to the MUTCD, which is available on-line: http://mutcd.fhwa.dot.gov which provides access to the official PDF version.

• A plan that defines all locations, provides necessary details and is documented in a format that is readily understood by those assigned to perform traffic control.

The functions to be performed in the field are:

1. Facilitate evacuating traffic movements that safely expedite travel out of the EPZ.

2. Discourage traffic movements that move evacuating vehicles in a direction which takes them significantly closer to the power plant, or which interferes with the efficient flow of other evacuees.

The terms "facilitate" and "discourage" are employed rather than "enforce" and "prohibit" to indicate the need for flexibility in performing the traffic control function. There are always legitimate reasons for a driver to prefer a direction other than that indicated. For example:

• A driver may be traveling home from work or from another location, to join other family members prior to evacuating.

• An evacuating driver may be travelling to pick up a relative, or other evacuees.

oThe driver may be an emergency worker en route to perform an important activity.

The implementation of a plan must also be flexible enough for the application of sound judgment by the traffic guide.

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The traffic management plan is the outcome of the following process:

1. The existing TCPs and ACPs identified by the offsite agencies in their existing emergency plans serve as the basis of the traffic management plan, as per NUREG/CR-7002.

2. Computer analysis of the evacuation traffic flow environment.

This analysis identifies the best routing. and those critical intersections that experience pronounced congestion. Any critical intersections that are not identified in the existing offsite plans are suggested as additional TCPs and ACPs

3. A field survey of the highway network within 15 miles of the power plant. The schematics describing traffic and access control at suggested additional TCPs and ACPs, which are presented in Appendix G, are based on. data collected during field surveys, upon large scale maps, and on overhead photos.

4. Consultation with emergency management and law enforcement personnel.

Trained personnel who are experienced in controlling traffic and are aware of the likely evacuation traffic patterns should review the control tactics at the suggested additional TCPs and ACPs.

5. Prioritization of TCPs and ACPs.

Application of traffic and access control at some TCPs and ACPs will have a more pronounced influence on expediting traffic movements than at other TCPs and ACPs. For example, TCPs controlling traffic originating from areas in close proximity to the power plant could have a more beneficial effect on minimizing potential exposure to radioactivity than those TCPs located far from the power plant. These priorities should be assigned by state emergency management representatives and by law enforcement personnel.

It is recommended that the control tactics identified in the schematics in Appendix G be reviewed by the state emergency planners, and local and state police. Specifically the number and locations of the suggested TCPs and ACPs should be reviewed in detail, and the indicated resource requirements should be reconciled with current assets.

The use of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) technologies can reduce manpower and equipment needs, while still facilitating the evacuation process. Dynamic Message Signs (DMS) can be placed within the EPZ to provide information to travelers regarding traffic conditions, route selection, and reception center information. DMS can also be placed outside of the EPZ to warn motorists to avoid using routes that may conflict with the flow of evacuees away from the power plant. Highway Advisory Radio (HAR) can be used to broadcast information to evacuees en route through their vehicle stereo systems. Automated Traveler Information Systems (ATIS) can also be used to provide evacuees with information. Internet websites can provide traffic and evacuation route information before the evacuee begins his trip, while on board navigation systems (GPS units), cell phones, and pagers can be used to provide information en route. These are only several examples of how ITS technologies can benefit the evacuation process. Consideration should be given that ITS technologies be used to facilitate the evacuation process, and any additional signage placed should consider evacuation needs.

The ETE analysis treated all controlled intersections that are existing TCP locations in the offsite Pilerim Nuclear Power Station 9-2 KLD Eneineerine. P.c.

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agency plans as being controlled by actuated signals.

Chapters 2N and 5G, and Part 6 of the 2009 MUTCD are particularly relevant and should be reviewed during emergency response training.

The ETE calculations reflect the assumption that all "external-external" trips are interdicted and diverted after 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> have elapsed from the ATE.

All transit vehicles and other responders entering the EPZ to support the evacuation are assumed to be unhindered by personnel manning ACPs and TCPs.

Study Assumptions 5 and 6 in Section 2.3 discuss ACP and TCP staffing schedules and operations.

Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station 9-3 KLD Engineering, P.c.

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10 EVACUATION ROUTES Evacuation routes are comprised of two distinct components:

• Routing from a sub-area being evacuated to the boundary of the Evacuation Region and thence out of the EPZ.

• Routing of transit-dependent evacuees from the EPZ boundary to reception centers.

Evacuees will select routes within the EPZ in such a way as to minimize their exposure to risk.

This expectation .is met by the DYNEV II model routing traffic away from the location of the plant, to the extentpracticable. The DTRAD model satisfies this behavior by routing traffic so as to balance traffic demand relative to the available highway capacity to the extent possible.

See Appendices B through Dfor further discussion.

The routing of transit-dependent evacuees from the EPZ boundary to reception centers or host facilities is designed to minimize the amount of travel outside the EPZ, from the points where these routes cross the EPZ boundary.

Figure 10-1 and Figure 10-2 present maps showing the general population reception centers and school host facilities for evacuees. The major evacuation routes for the EPZ are presented in Figure 10-3.

It is assumed that all school evacuees will be taken to the appropriate host facility and subsequently picked up bY parents or guardians. Transit-dependent evacuees are transported to the nearest host facility for each town. This study does not consider the transport of evacuees from reception centers to mass care shelters, if the towns do make the decision to relocate evacuees.

Ncler Poer Satin Pilgim KLD Engneeing,0-cP.C.

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Figure 10-1. General Population Reception Centers and School Host Facilities Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station 10-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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K Figure 10-2. Bridgewater and Taunton Reception Centers and Host Facilities Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station1- KLD Enginleerinlg, P.C.

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Mao1vcaio ots[

Figure 10-3. Evacuation Route Map Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station 10-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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11 SURVEILLANCE OF EVACUATION OPERATIONS There is a need for surveillance of traffic operations during the evacuation. There is also a need to clear any blockage of roadways arising from accidents or vehicle disablement. Surveillance can take several forms.

1. Traffic control personnel, located at Traffic Control and Access Control points, provide fixed-point surveillance.

2. Ground patrols may be undertaken along well-defined paths to ensure coverage of those highways that serve as major evacuation routes.

3. Aerial surveillance of evacuation operations may also be conducted using helicopter or fixed-wing aircraft, if available.

4. Cellular phone calls (if cellular coverage exists) from motorists may also provide direct field reports of road blockages.

These concurrent surveillance procedures are designed to provide coverage of the entire EPZ as well as the area around its periphery. It is the responsibility of the Towns to support an emergency response system that can receive messages from the field and be in a position to respond to any reported problems in a timely manner. This coverage should quickly identify, and expedite the response to any blockage caused by a disabled vehicle.

Tow Vehicles In a low-speed traffic environment, any vehicle disablement is likely to arise due to a low-speed collision, mechanical failure or the exhaustion of its fuel supply. In any case, the disabled vehicle can be pushed onto the shoulder, thereby restoring traffic flow. Past experience in other emergencies indicates that evacuees who are leaving an area often perform activities such as pushing a disabled vehicle to the side of the road without prompting.

While the need for tow vehicles is expected to be low under the circumstances described above, it is still prudent to be prepared for such a need. Consideration should be given that tow trucks with a supply of gasoline be deployed at strategic locations within, or just outside, the EPZ. These locations should be selected so that:

• They permit access to key, heavily loaded, evacuation routes.

• Responding tow trucks would most likely travel counter-flow relative to evacuating traffic.

Consideration should also be given that the state and local emergency management agencies encourage gas stations to remain open during the evacuation.

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12 CONFIRMATION TIME It is necessary to confirm that the evacuation process is effective in the sense that the public is complying with the Advisory to Evacuate. The EPZ town radiological emergency plans do not discuss a procedure for confirming evacuation. Should procedures not already exist, the following alternative or complementary approach is suggested.

The suggested procedure employs a stratified random sample and a telephone survey. The size of the sample is dependent on the expected number of households that do not comply with the Advisory to Evacuate. It is reasonable to assume, for the purpose of estimating sample size that at least 80 percent of the population within the EPZ will comply with the Advisory to Evacuate.

On this basis, an analysis could be undertaken (see Table 12-1) to yield an estimated sample size of approximately 300.

The confirmation process should start at about 21/22 hours after the Advisory to Evacuate, which is when approximately 90 percent of evacuees have completed their mobilization activities (see Table 5-9). At this time, virtually all evacuees will have departed on their respective trips and the local telephone system will be largely free of traffic.

As indicated in Table 12-1, approximately 7Y1/2 person hours are needed to complete the telephone survey. If six people are assigned to this task, each dialing a different set of telephone exchanges (e.g., each person can be assigned a different set of sub-areas), then the confirmation process will extend over a timeframe of about 75 minutes. Thus, the confirmation should be completed before the evacuated area is cleared. Of course, fewer people would be needed for this survey if the Evacuation Region were only a portion of the EPZ. Use of modern automated computer controlled dialing equipment or other technologies (e.g., reverse 911 or equivalent if available) can significantly reduce the manpower requirements and the time required to undertake this type of confirmation survey.

if this method is indeed used by the offsite agencies, consideration should be given to maintain a list of telephone numbers within the EPZ in the EOC at all times. Such a list could be purchased from vendors and should be periodically .updated. As indicated above, the confirmation process should not begin until 21/22 hours after the Advisory to Evacuate, to ensure that households have had enough time to mobilize. This 21/2'-hour timeframe will enable telephone operators to arrive at their workplace, obtain a call list and prepare to make the necessary phone calls.

Should the number of telephone responses (i.e., people still at home) exceed 20 percent, then the telephone survey should be repeated after an hour's interval until the confirmation process is completed.

Other techniques could also be considered. After traffic volumes decline, the personnel manning TCPs can be redeployed to travel through residential areas to observe and to confirm evacuation activities.

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Table 12-1. Estimated Number of Telephone Calls Required for Confirmation of Evacuation Problem Definition Estimate number of phone calls, n, needed to ascertain the proportion, F of households that have not evacuated.

Reference:

Burstein, H., Attribute Sampling. McGraw Hill, 1971 Given:

o No. of households plus other facilities, N, within the EPZ (est.) = 36,800

• Est. proportion, F, of households that will not evacuate = 0.20

• Allowable error margin, e: 0.05

• Confidence level, a: 0.95 (implies A = 1.96)

Applying Table 10 of cited reference, p =F+e=0.25; q= -p =0.75 A2 pq + e_

n - - 308 Finite population correction:

nN n = = 305 n+N-1 Thus, some 300 telephone calls will confirm that approximately 20 percent of the population has not evacuated. If only 10 percent of the population does not comply with the Advisory to Evacuate, then the required sample size, nF = 215.

Est. Person Hours to complete 300 telephone calls Assume:

• Time to dial using touch tone (random selection of listed numbers): 30 seconds

• Time for 6 rings (no answer): 36 seconds

• Time for 4 rings plus short conversation: 60 sec.

• Interval between calls: 20 sec.

Person Hours:

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APPENDIX A Glossary of Traffic Engineering Terms

ENGIEERGlsayoTErMSi ngneinem A.GLSSRbOlTAFI Table A-i. Glossary of Traffic Engineering Terms 3- 6 Analysis Network A graphical representation of the geometric topology of a physical roadway system, which is comprised of directional links and nodes.

Link A network link represents a specific, one-directional section of roadway. A link has both physical (length, number of lanes, topology, etc.) and operational (turn movement percentages, service rate, free-flow speed) characteristics.

Measures of Effectiveness Statistics describing traffic operations on a roadway network.

Node A network node generally represents an intersection of network links. A node has control characteristics, i.e., the allocation of service time to each approach link.

Origin A location attached to a network link, within the EPZ or Shadow Region, where trips are generated at a specified rate in vehicles per hour (vph). These trips enter the roadway system to travel to their respective destinations.

Prevailing Roadway and Relates to the physical features of the roadway, the nature (e.g.,

Traffic Conditions composition) of traffic on the roadway and the ambient conditions (weather, visibility, pavement conditions, etc.).

Maximum rate at which vehicles, executing a specific turn Service Rate maneuver, can be discharged from a section of roadway at the prevailing conditions, expressed in vehicles per second (vps) or vehicles per hour (vph).

Maximum number of vehicles which can pass over a section of Service Volume roadway in one direction during a specified time period with operating conditions at a specified Level of Service (The Service Volume at the upper bound of Level of Service, E, equals Capacity).

Service Volume is usually expressed as vehicles per hour (vph).

Signal Cycle Length The total elapsed time to display all signal indications, in sequence.

The cycle length is expressed in seconds.

Signal Interval A single combination of signal indications. The interval duration is expressed in seconds. A signal phase is comprised of a sequence of signal intervals, usually green, yellow, red.

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I. .

Signal Phase A set of signal indications (and intervals) which services a particular combination of traffic movements on selected approaches to the intersection. The phase duration is expressed in seconds.

Traffic (Trip) Assignment A process of assigning traffic to paths of travel in such a way as to satisfy all trip objectives (i.e., the desire of each vehicle to travel from a specified origin in the network to a specified destination) and to optimize some stated objective or combination of objectives. In general, the objective is stated in terms of minimizing a generalized "cost". For example, "cost" may be expressed in terms of travel time.

Traffic Density The number of vehicles that occupy one lane of a roadway section of specified length at a point in time, expressed as vehicles per mile (vpm).

Traffic (Trip) Distribution A process for determining the destinations of all traffic generated at the origins. The result often takes the form of a Trip Table, which is a matrix of origin-destination traffic volumes.

Traffic Simulation A computer model designed to replicate the real-world operation of vehicles on a roadway network, so as to provide statistics describing traffic performance. These statistics are called Measures of Effectiveness.

Traffic Volume The number of vehicles that pass over a section of roadway in one direction, expressed in vehicles per hour (vph). Where applicable, traffic volume may be stratified by turn movement.

Travel Mode Distinguishes between private auto, bus, rail, pedestrian and air travel modes.

Trip Table or Origin- A rectangular matrix or table, whose entries contain the number Destination Matrix of trips generated at each specified origin, during a specified time period, that are attracted to (and travel toward) each of its specified destinations. These values are expressed in vehicles per hour (vph) or in vehicles.

Turning Capacity The capacity associated with that component of the traffic stream which executes a specified turn maneuver from an approach at an intersection.

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APPENDIX B DTRAD: Dynamic Traffic Assignment and Distribution Model

B. DYNAMIC TRAFFIC ASSIGNM ENT AND DISTRIBUTION MODEL This section describes the integrated dynamic trip assignment and distribution model named DTRAD (Dynamic Traffic Assignment and Distribution) that is expressly designed for use in analyzing evacuation scenarios. DTRAD employs logit-based path-choice principles and is one of the models of the DYNEVII System. The DTRAD module implements path-based Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTA) so that time dependent Origin-Destination (OD) trips are "assigned" to routes over the network based on prevailing traffic conditions.

To apply the DYNEV II System, the analyst must specify the highway network, link capacity information, the time-varying volume of traffic generated at all origin centroids and, optionally, a set of accessible candidate destination nodes on the periphery of the EPZ for selected origins.

DTRAD calculates the optimal dynamic trip distribution (i.e., trip destinations) and the optimal dynamic trip assignment (i.e., trip routing) of the traffic generated at each origin node traveling to its set of candidate destination nodes, so as to minimize evacuee travel "cost".

Overview of Integrated Distribution and Assignment Model The underlying premise is that the selection of destinations and routes is intrinsically coupled in an evacuation scenario. That is, people in vehicles seek to travel out of an area of potential risk as rapidly as possible by selecting the "best" routes. The model is designed to identify these "best" routes in a manner that realistically distributes vehicles from origins to destinations and routes them over the highway network, in a consistent and optimal manner, reflecting evacuee behavior.

For each origin, a set of "candidate destination nodes" is selected by the software logic and by the analyst to reflect the desire by evacuees to travel away from the power plant and to access major highways. The specific destination nodes within this set that are selected by travelers and the selection of the connecting paths of travel, are both determined by DTRAD. This determination is made by a Iogit-based path choice model in DTRAD, so as to minimize the trip "cost", as discussed later.

The traffic loading on the network and the consequent operational traffic environment of the network (density, speed, throughput on each link) vary over time as the evacuation takes place.

The DTRAD model, which is interfaced with the DYNEV simulation model, executes a succession of "sessions" wherein it computes the optimal routing and selection of destination nodes for the conditions that exist at that time.

Interfacing the DYNEV Simulation Model with DTRAD The DYNEV II system reflects NRC guidance that evacuees will seek to travel in a general direction away from the location of the hazardous event._ An algorithm was developed to support the DTRAD model in dynamically varying the Trip Table (O-D matrix) over time from one DTRAD session to the next. Another algorithm executes a "mapping" from the specified "geometric" network (link-node analysis network) that represents the physical highway system, to a "path" network that re'presents the vehicle [turn] movements. DTRAD computations are performed on the "path" network: DYNEV simulation model, on the "geometric" network.

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DTRAD Description DTRAD is the DTA module for the DYNEV II System.

When the road network under study is large, multiple routing options are usually available between trip origins and destinations. The problem of loading traffic demands and propagating them over the network links is called Network Loading and is addressed by DYNEVII using macroscopic traffic simulation modeling. Traffic assignment deals with computing the distribution of the traffic over the roadl network for given O-D demands and is a model of the route choice of the driyers. Travel demand changes significantly over time, and the road network may have time dependent characteristics, e.g., time-varying signal timing or reduced road capacity because of lane closure, or traffic congestion. To consider these time dependencies, DTA procedures are required.

-The DTRAD DTA module represents the dynamic route choice behavior of drivers, using the specification of dynamic origin-destination matrices as flow input. Drivers choose their routes through the network based on the travel cost they experience (as determined by the simulation model). This allows traffic to be distributed over the network according to the time-dependent conditions. The modeling principles of D-TRAD include:

• It is assumed that drivers not only select the best route (i.e., lowest cost path) but some also select less attractive routes. The algorithm implemented by DTRAD archives several "efficient" routes for each O-D pair from which the drivers choose.

• The choice of one route out of a set of possible routes is an outcome of "discrete choice modeling". Given a set of routes and their generalized costs, the percentages of drivers that choose each route is computed. The most prevalent model for discrete choice modeling is the Iogit model. DTRAD uses a variant of Path-Size-Logit model (PSL). PSL overcomes the drawback of the traditional multinomial Iogit model by incorporating an additional deterministic path size correction term to address path overlapping in the random utility expression.

• DTRAD executes the TA algorithm on an abstract network representation called "the path network" which is built from the actual physical link-node analysis network. This execution continues until a stable situation is reached: the volumes and travel times on the edges of the path network do, not change signifiicantly from one iteration to the next. The criteria for this convergence are defined by the user.

• Travel "cost" plays a crucial role in route choice. In DTRAD, path cost is a linear summation of the generalized cost of each link that comprises the path. The generalized cost for a link, a, is expressed as Ca= cxta + +/-l,

+YSa, where ca is the generalized cost for link a, and a, fJ, and y are cost coefficients for link travel time, distance, and supplemental cost, respectively. Distance and supplemental costs are defined as invariant properties of the network model, while travel time is a dynamic property dictated by prevailing traffic conditions. The DYNEV simulation model Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station B3-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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computes travel times on all edges in the network and DTRAD uses that information to constantly update the costs of paths. The route choice decision model in the next simulation iteration uses these updated values to adjust the route choice behavior. This way, traffic demands are dynamically re-assigned based on time dependent conditions.

The interaction between the DTRAD traffic assignment and DYNEV II simulation models is depicted in Figure B-i. Each round of interaction is called a Traffic Assignment Session (TA session). A TA session is composed of multiple iterations, marked as loop B in the figure.

The supplemental cost is based on the "survival distribution" (a variation of the exponential distribution).The Inverse Survival Function is a "cost" term in DTRAD to represent the potential risk of travel toward the plant:

Sa=- 13In (p), O< p*<1;3 >0 d= Distance of node, n, from the plant do =Distance from the plant where there is zero risk 13= Scaling factor The value of do = 15 miles, the outer distance of the shadow region. Note that the supplemental cost, Sa, of link, a, is (high, low), if its downstream node, n, is (near, far from) the power plant.

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Network Equilibrium In 1952, John Wardrop wrote:

Under equilibrium conditions traffic arrangesitself in congested networks in such a way that no individual trip-maker can reduce his path costs by switching routes.

The above statement describes the "User Equilibrium" definition, also called the "Selfish Driver Equilibrium". It is a hypothesis that 'represents a [hopeful] condition that evolves over time as drivers search out alternative routes to identify those routes that minimize their respective "costs". It has been found that this "equilibrium" objective to minimize costs is largely realized by most drivers who routinely take the same trip over the same network at the same time (i.e.,

commuters). Effectively, such drivers "learn" which routes are best for them over time. Thus, the traffic environment "settles down" to a near-equilibrium state.

Clearly, since anemergency evacuation is a sudden, unique event, it does not constitute a long-term learning experience which can achieve an equilibrium state. Consequently, DTRAD was not designed as an equilibrium solution, but to represent drivers in a new and unfamiliar situation, who respond in a flexible manner to real-time information (either broadcast or observed) in such a way as to minimize their respective costs of travel.

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Start of next DTRAD Session Set To - Clock time.

Archive System State at To S Define latest Link Turn I Percentages B Execute Simulation Model from time, T0 to T1 (burn time)

Provide DTRAD with link MOE at time, T1" Execute DTRAD iteration; Get new Turn Percentages Retrieve System State at To Apply new Link Turn Percents S DTRAD iteration converges?

No SYes Simulate from T0 toTI2 (DTA session duration)

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APPENDIX C DYNEV Traffic Simulation Model

C. DYNEV TRAFFIC SIMULATION MODEL The DYNEV traffic simulation model is a macroscopic model that describes the operations of traffic flow in terms of aggregate variables: vehicles, flow rate, mean speed, volume, density, queue length, on each link, for each turn movement, during each Time Interval (simulation time step). The model generates trips from "sources" and from Entry Links and introduces them onto the analysis network at rates specified by the analyst based on the mobilization time distributions. The model simulates the movements of all vehicles on all network links over time until the network is empty. At intervals, the model outputs Measures of Effectiveness (MOE) such as those listed in Table C-i.

Model Features Include:

• Explicit consideration is taken of the variation in density over the time step; an iterative procedure is employed to calculate an average density over the simulation time step for the purpose of computing a mean speed for moving vehicles.

• Multiple turn movements can be serviced on one link; a separate algorithm is Used to

, estimate the number of (fractional) lanes assigned to the vehicles performing each turn movement, based, in part, on the turn percentages provided by the DTRAD model.

• At any point in time, traffic flow on a link is subdivided into two classifications: queued and moving vehicles. The number of vehicles in each classification is computed. Vehicle spillback, stratified by turn movement for each network link, is explicitly considered and quantified. The propagation of stopping waves from link to link is computed within each time step of the simulation. There is no "vertical stacking" of queues on a link.

• Any link can accommodate "source flow" from zones via side streets and parking facilities that are not explicitly represented. This flow represents the evacuating trips that are generated at the source.

• The relation between the number of vehicles occupying the link and its storage capacity is monitored every time step for every link and for every turn movement. If the available storage capacity on a link is exceeded by the demand for service, then the simulator applies a "metering" rate to the entering traffic from both the upstream feeders and source node to ensure that the available storage capacity is not exceeded.

• A "path network" that represents the specified traffic movements from each network link is constructed by the model; this path network is utilized by the DTRAD model.

• A two-way interface with DTRAD: (1) provides link travel times; (2) receives data that translates into link turn percentages.

• Provides MOE to animation software, EVAN

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All traffic simulation models are data-intensive. Table C-2 outlines the necessary input data elements.

To provide an efficient framework for defining these specifications, the physical highway environment is represented as a network. The unidirectional links of the network represent roadway sections: rural, multi-lane, urban streets or freeways. The nodes of the network generally represent intersections or points along a section where a geometric property changes (e.g. a lane drop, change in grade or free flow speed).

Figure C-i is an example of a small network representation. The freeway is defined by the sequence of links, (20,21), (21,22), and (22,23). Links (8001, 19) and (3, 8011) are Entry and Exit links, respectively. An arterial extends from node 3 to node 19 and is partially subsumed within a grid network. Note that links (21,22) and (17,19) are grade-separated.

Table C-i. Selected Measures of Effectiveness Output by DVNEV II Vehicles Discharged Vehicles Link, Network, Exit Link Speed Miles/Hours (mph) Link, Network Density Vehicles/Mile/Lane Link Level of Service LOS Link Content Vehicles Network Travel Time Vehicle-hours Network Evacuated Vehicles Vehicles Network, Exit Link Trip Travel Time Vehicle-minutes/trip Network Capacity Utilization Percent Exit Link Attraction Percent of total evacuating vehicles Exit Link Max Queue Vehicles .Node, Approach Time of Max Queue Hours:minutes Node, Approach Rout SttisicsLength (mi); Mean Speed (mph); Travel Route RouteStatiticsTime (min)

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Table C-2. Input Requirements for the DYNEV II Model HIGHWAY NETWORK

• Links defined by upstream and downstream node numbers

• Link lengths

• Number of lanes (up to 9) and channelization

• Turn bays (1 to 3 lanes)

• Destination (exit) nodes

• Network topology defined in terms of downstream nodes for each receiving link

• Node Coordinates (X,Y)

• Nuclear Power Plant Coordinates (X,Y)

GENERATED TRAFFIC VOLUMES

• On all entry links and source nodes (origins), by Time Period TRAFFIC CONTROL SPECIFICATIONS

• Traffic signals: link-specific, turn movement specific

• Signal control treated as fixed time or actuated

• Location of traffic control points (these are represented as actuated signals)

• Stop and Yield signs

• Right-turn-on-red (RTOR)

• Route diversion specifications o Turn restrictions

• Lane control (e.g. lane closure, movement-specific)

DRIVER'S AN D OPERATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS

• Driver's (vehicle-specific) response mechanisms: free-flow speed, discharge headway

• Bus route designation.

DYNAMIC TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT

• Candidate destination nodes for each origin (optional)

• Duration of DTA sessions

• Duration of simulation "burn time"

• Desired number of destination nodes per origin INCIDENTS

• Identify and Schedule of closed lanes

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Entry, Exit Nodes are numbered 8xxx Figure C-1. Representative Analysis Network C-4 C-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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C.1 Methodology C.1.1 The Fundamental Diagram It is necessary to define the fundamental diagram describing flow-density and speed-density relationships. Rather than "settling for" a triangular representation, a more realistic representation that includes a "capacity drop", (I-R)Qmax, at the critical density when flow conditions enter the forced flow regime, is developed and calibrated for each link. This representation, shown in Figure C-2, asserts a constant free speed up to a density, kf, and then a linear reduction in speed in the range, kf_< k _ kc 45 vpm, the density at capacity. In the flow-density plane, a quadratic relationship is prescribed in the range, kc < k __ks = 95 vpm which roughly represents the "stop-and-go" condition of severe congestion. The value of flow rate, Qs, corresponding to ks, iS approximated at 0.7 RQmax. A linear relationship between ks and kj completes the diagram shown in Figure C-2. Table C-3 is a glossary of terms.

The fundamental diagram is applied to moving traffic on every link. The specified calibration values for each link are: (1) Free speed, vf ; (2) Capacity, Qmax ; (3) Critical density, kc =

Qmax 45 vpm ; (4) Capacity Drop Factor, R = 0.9 ; (5) Jam density, k1 . Then, vc, , kf= kc-(vf-vc)k*. Setting k= k-kc, thenQ= RQmaxxRQmax k2 for 0*<k_<k =50. It can be Qmax 83333-shown that Q =(0.98 -0.0056 k) RQmax forks -<k-<k, where ks = 50 and k 175.

C.1.2 The Simulation Model The simulation model solves a sequence of "unit problems". Each unit problem computes the movement of traffic on a link, for each specified turn movement, over a specified time interval (TI) which serves as the simulation time step for all links. Figure C-3 is a representation of the unit problem in the time-distance plane. Table C-3 is a glossary of terms that are referenced in the following description of the unit problem procedure.

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Volume, vph Capacity Drop Qmax -

R Qmax -,

/ ....- QS Density, vpm Speed, mph Free Forced:*

I ,

-*Density, vpm I i k'* ks kj Figure C:-2. Fundamental Diagrams C-6 C-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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At Distance OQ OM OE O Down Qe Me L Mb Up Bi E2 TI Figure C-3. A UNIT Problem Configuration with t1 > 0 Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station C-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Table C-3. Glossary The maximum number of vehicles, of a particular movement, that can discharge Cap from a link within a time interval.

EtimeThe number interval. ofThe vehicles, portion,ofETI,a can particular movement, reach the stop-bar that withinenter the link over the the TI.

The green time: cycle time ratio that services the vehicles of a particular turn G/C movement on a link.

h The mean queue discharge headway, seconds.

k Density in vehicles per lane per mile.

The average density of moving, vehicles of a particular movement over a TI, on a klink. '

L The length of the link in feet.

The ~queue length in feet of a particular movement, at the [beginning, end] of a Lb Le

, time interval.

The number of lanes, expressed as a floating point number, allocated to service a LNparticular movement on a link.

Lv The mean effective length of a queued vehicle including the vehicle spacing, feet.

M Metering factor (Multiplier): 1.

The number of moving vehicles on the link, of a particular movement, that are Mb , Me moving at the [beginning, end] of the time interval. These vehicles are assumed to be of equal spacing, over the length of link upstream of the queue.

The total number of vehicles of a particular movement that are discharged from a 0link over a time interval.

The components of the vehicles of a particular movement that are discharged from a link within a time interval: vehicles that were Queued at the beginning of OQOM ,OE the TI; vehicles that were Moving witlhin the link at the beginning of the TI; vehicles that Entered the link during the TI.

Px The percentage, executes expressed a particular as a fraction, turn movement, x. of the total flow on the link that KLD Engineering, P.c.

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Qb, Qe The numberend]

[beginning, of queued vehicles of the time on the link, of a particular turn movement, at the interval.

The maximum flow rate that can be serviced by a link for a particular movement Qmax in the absence of a control device. It is specified by the analyst as an estimate of link capacity, based upon a field survey, with reference to the HCM.

R The factor that is applied to the capacity of a link to represent the "capacity drop" when the flow condition moves into the forced flow regime. The lower capacity at that point is equal to RQmax.

RCap The remaining capacity available to service vehicles of a particular movement after that queue has been completely serviced, within a time interval, expressed as vehicles.

Sx Service rate for movement x, vehicles per hour (vph).

tl Vehicles of a particular turn movement that enter a link over the first t 1 seconds of a time interval, can reach the stop-bar (in the absence of a queue down-stream) within the same time interval.

TI The time interval, in seconds, which is used as the simulation time step.

v The mean speed of travel, in feet per second (fps) or miles per hour (mph), of moving vehicles on the link.

VQ The mean speed of the last vehicle in a queue that discharges from the link within the TI. This speed differs from the mean speed of moving vehicles, v.

W The width of the intersection in feet. This is the difference between the link length which extends from stop-bar to stop-bar and the block length.

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The formulation and the associated logic presented below are designed to solve the unit problem for each sweep over the network (discussed below), for each turn movement serviced on each link that comprises the evacuation network, and for each TI over the duration of the evacuation.

Gie=Qb, Mb, L, TI, Eo,LN, G/C , h, Lv, Ro,Lc,E, Compute 0 , Qe , Me Define 0= OQ +0M +OE ; E =E 1 +E 2

1. For the first sweep, s = 1, of this TI, get initial estimates of mean density, k0 , the R - factor, Ro and entering traffic, Eo, using the values computed for the final sweep of the prior TI.

For each subsequent sweep, s >1, calculate E =

• P1 0i + S where P1 , Oi are the relevant turn percentages from feeder link, i, and its total outflow (possibly metered) over this TI; S is the total source flow (possibly metered) during the current TI.

Set iteration counter, n = 0, k k, and E = E0 .

2. Calculate v (k) such that k _<130 using the analytical representations of the fundamental diagram.

Calculate Cap - Qmx(I (G/c) LN ,in vehicles, this value may be reduced due to metering SetR = 1.0Oif G/C <1 orifk_< k; Set R =0.9 onlyif G/C = l and k~k LL 3.Clult 3.CluaetV 1 T-TI-.I If t 1 < 0 set t1 = E1= 0O.= 0 ; Else, E1 = E t2*W

4. Then E2 = E- E 1 ; t 2 = TI -t 1

5. If Qb Ž Cap,then OQ= Cap,O0 M = O = 0 If t 1 >0,then Q'e = Qb +- Mb +- E1 - Cap Else Q'e =Qb - Cap End if Calculate Qe and Me using Algorithm A (below)

6. Else (Qb < Cap)

OQ =Qb, RCap =Cap- OQ

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0

8. If t, > 0, M =Mb,O0E = min(Reap -Mb, T-i7) Ž>0 Q'e = E1-OF If Q'e > 0 ,then Calculate Qe, Me with Algorithm A Else 0

Qe = , Me =E 2 End if Else (t1 = 0) 0 0 M = (y(TD)-Lb.* Mb and E =0 Me = Mb-- 0 M-I+ E; Qe--

End if

9. Else (Mb > RCap)

OE0 If t 1 >0, then 0M =RCap, Qe = Mb -- OM+-E, Calculate Qe and Me using Algorithm A

10. Else (t1 0)

Md =[(*L--- ) Mb]

If Md > RCap, then OM= Reap Qe= Md -0 Apply Algorithm A to calculate Qe and Me Else 0

Me=Mb-- M +E and Qe =0 End if End if End if End if

11. Calculate a new estimate of average density, kn = 4 k m+k]

where kb = density at the beginning of the TI ke = de nsity at the end of the TI km = density at the mid-point of the TI All values of density apply only to the moving* vehicles.

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12. set n =n + 1 , and return to step 2 to perform iteration, n, using k = kn

• End if Computation of unit problem is now complete. Check for excessive inflow causing spillback.

13.f Q+Me(L-W) LN then The number of excess vehicles that cause spiliback is: SB = Qe + Me (L-W). LN where W is the width of the upstream intersection. To prevent spillback, meter the outflow from the feeder approaches and from the source flow, S, during this TI by the amount, SB. That is, set SB M = 1 (- +)> 0 ,where M is the metering factor (over all movements).

This metering factor is assigned appropriately to all feeder links and to the source flow, to be applied during the next network sweep, discussed later.

Algorithm A This analysis addresses the flow environment over a TI during which moving vehicles can

"* I*join a standing or discharging queue. For the case Qb VQQeshown, Qb < Cap, with t1 > 0Oand a queue of

• ~ length, Q'e, formed by that portion of Mb and E i ~that reaches the stop-bar within the TI, but could

'. ,_ not discharge due to inadequate capacity. That is, Mb Qb + Mb + E1 > Cap. This queue length, V L3 Q'e = Qb +Mb+ElF.1--Cap can be extended to Qe

_* by traffic entering the approach during the current jrJt3ITI, traveling at speed, v, and reaching the rear of the

• [*[

,-I*

• queue3 within the TI. A portion of the entering T I ehilesE3 - ETI' will likely join the queue. This analysis calculates t 3 ,'Qe and Me for the input values of L,TI, v, E, t, Lv, LN, Qg.

When t1 > 0 and Qb -<Cap:

Define: L'e = Q'e . From the sketch, L3 = v(TI - t1 - t3 ) -- L - (Q'e +¢ -3 )

• Substituting E3 = E yields: - vt 3 + E - = L - v(TI - t1 ) - L'e.* Recognizing that the first two terms on the right hand side cancel, solve for t3 to obtain:

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t3 E Lv such that 0__t 3 _*TI-t 1 If the denominator, [v - j *0,

_< set t 3 = TI - t1 .

t3~( tl +t 3 )

Then, Qe=Q'++/-E T Me=E_ T-/

The complete Algorithm A considers ali flow scenarios; space limitation precludes its inclusion, here.

C.1.3 Lane Assignment The "unit problem" is solved for each turn movement on each link. Therefore it is necessary to calculate a ae, LNx, of allocated lanes for each movement, x. If in fact all lanes are specified by, say, arrows painted on the pavement, either as full lanes or as lanes within a turn bay, then the problem is fully defined. If however there remain un-channelized lanes on a link, then an analysis is undertaken to subdivide the number of these physical lanes into turn movement specific virtual lanes, LNx.

C.2 Implementation C.2.1 Computational Procedure The computational procedure for this model is shown in the form of a flow diagram as Figure C-4. As discussed earlier, the Simulation model processes traffic flow for each link independently over TI that the analyst specifies; it is usually 60 seconds or longer. The first step is to execute an algorithm to define the sequence in which the network links are processed so that as many links as possible are processed after their feeder links are processed, within the same network sweep. Since a general network will have many closed loops, it is not possible to guarantee that every link processed will have all of its feeder links processed earlier.

The processing then continues as a succession of time steps of duration, TI, until the simulation is completed. Within each time step, the processing performs a series of "sweeps" over all network links; this is necessary to ensure that the traffic flow is synchronous over the entire network. Specifically, the sweep ensures continuity of flow among all the network links; in the context of this model, this means that the values of E, M, and S are all defined for each link such that they represent the synchronous movement of traffic from each link to all of its outbound links. These sweeps also serve to compute the metering rates that control spillback.

Within each sweep, processing solves the "unit problem" for each turn movement on each link.

With the turn movement percentages for each link provided by the DTRAD model, an algorithm Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station C-13 KLD Engineering, P.c.

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allocates the number of lanes to each movement serviced on each link. The timing at a signal, if any, applied at the downstream end of the link, is expressed as a G/C ratio, the signal timing needed to define this ratio is an input requirement for the model. The model also has the capability of representing, with macroscopic fidelity, the actions of actuated signals responding to the time-varying competing demands on the approaches to the intersection.

The solution of the unit problem yields the values of the number of vehicles, 0, that discharge from the link over the time interval and the number of vehicles that remain on the link at the end of the time interval as stratified by queued and moving vehicles: Qe and Me. The procedure considers each movement separately (multi-piping). After all network links are processed for a given network sweep, the updated consistent values of entering flows, E; metering rates, M; and source flows, S are defined so as to satisfy the "no spillback" condition.

The procedure then performs the unit problem solutions for all network links during the following sweep.

Experience has shown that the system converges (i.e. the values of E, M and S "settle down" for all network links) in just two sweeps if the network is entirely under-saturated or in four sweeps in the presence of extensive congestion with link spillback. (The initial sweep over each link uses the final values of E and M, of the prior TI). At the completion of the final sweep for a TI, the procedure computes and stores all measures of effectiveness for each link and turn movement for output purposes. It then prepares for the following time interval by defining the values of Qb and Mb for the start of the next TI as being those values of Qe and Me at the end of the prior TI. In this manner, the simulation model processes the traffic flow over time until the end of the run. Note that there is no space-discretization other than the specification of network links.

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Figure C-4. Flow of Simulation Processing (See Glossary: Table C-3)

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C.2.2 Interfacing with Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTRAD)

The DYNEV II system reflects NRC guidance that evacuees will seek to travel in a general direction away_ from the location of the hazardous event. Thus, an algorithm was developed to identify an appropriate set of destination nodes for each origin based on its location and on the expected direction of travel. This algorithm also supports the DTRAD model in dynamically varying the Trip Table (O-D matrix) over time from one DTRAD session to the next.

Figure B-i depicts the interaction of the simulation model with the DTRAD model in the DYNEV II system. As indicated, DYNEV II performs a succession of DTRAD "sessions"; each such session computes the turn link percentages for each link that remain constant for the session duration,

[To ,T 2 ], specified by the analyst. The end product is the assignment of traffic volumes from each origin to paths connecting it with its destinations in such a way as to minimize the network-wide cost function. The output of the DTRAD model is a set of updated link turn percentages which represent this assignment of traffic.

As indicated in Figure B-i, the simulation model supports the DTRAD session by providing it with operational link MOE that are needed by the path choice model and included in the DTRAD cost function. These MOE represent the operational state of the network at a time, T1 _*T2 , which lies within the session duration, [To ,T 2] . This "burn time", T1 - T0 , is selected by the analyst. For each DTRAD iteration, the simulation model computes the change in network operations over this burn time using the latest set of link turn percentages computed by the DTRAD model. Upon convergence of the DTRAD iterative procedure, the simulation model accepts the latest turn percentages provided by the DTA model, returns to the origin time, To , and executes until it arrives at the end of the DTRAD session duration at time, T2

• At this time the next DTA session is launched and the whole process repeats until the end of the DYNEV II run.

Additional details are presented in Appendix B.

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APPENDIX D Detailed Description of Study Procedure

D. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF STUDY PROCEDURE This appendix describes the activities that were performed to compute Evacuation Time Estimates. The individual steps of this effort are represented as a flow diagram in Figure D-1.

Each numbered step in the description that follows corresponds to the numbered element in the flow diagram.

step 1 The first activity was to obtain EPZ boundary information and create a GIS base map. The base map extends beyond the Shadow Region which extends approximately 15 miles (radially) from the power plant location. The base map incorporates the local roadway topology, a suitable topographic background and the EPZ boundary.

step 2 2010 Census block information was obtained in GIS format. This information was used to estimate the resident population within the EPZ and Shadow Region and to define the spatial distribution and demographic characteristics of the population within the study area. Data for employees, transients', schools, and other facilities were obtained from local emergency management agencies.

Step_ 3 A kickoff meeting was conducted with major stakeholders (state and local emergency managers, on-site and off-site utility emergency managers, local and state law enforcement agencies). The purpose of the kickoff meeting was to present an overview of the work effort, identify key agency personnel, and indicate the data requirements for the Study. Specific requests for information were presented to local emergency managers. Unique features of the study area were discussed to identify the local concerns that should be addressed by the ETE study.

step 4 Next, a physical survey of the roadway system in the study area was conducted to determine the geometric properties of the highway sections, the channelization of lanes on each section of roadway, whether there are any turn restrictions or special treatment 'of traffic at intersections, the type and functioning of traffic control devices, gathering signal timings for pre-timed traffic signals, and to make the necessary observations needed to estimate realistic values of roadway capacity.

steps5 A telephone survey of households within the EPZ was conducted to identify household dynamics, trip generation characteristics, and evacuation-related demographic information of the EPZ population. This information was used to determine important study factors including the average number of evacuating vehicles used by each household, and the time required to perform pre-evacuation mobilization activities.

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step 6 A computerized representation of the physical roadway system, called a link-node analysis network, was developed using the UNITES software developed by KLD. Once the geometry of the network was completed, the network was calibrated using the information gathered during the road survey (Step 4). Estimates of highway capacity for each link and other link-specific characteristics were introduced to the network description. Traffic signal timings were input accordingly. The link-node analysis network was imported into a GIS map. 2010 Census data were overlaid in the map, and origin centroids where trips would be generated during the evacuation process were assigned to appropriate links.

step 7 The EPZ is subdivided into 12 sub-areas. Based on wind direction and speed, Regions (groupings of sub-areas) that may be advised to evacuate, were developed.

The need for evacuation can occur over a range of time-of-day, day-of-week, seasonal and weather-related conditions. Scenarios were developed to capture the variation in evacuation demand, highway capacity and mobilization time, for different time of day, day of the week, time of year, and weather conditions.

step 8 The input stream for the DYNEV II model, which integrates the dynamic traffic assignment and distribution model, DTRAD, with the evacuation simulation model, was created for a prototype evacuation case - the evacuation of the entire EPZ for a representative scenario.

step 9 After creating this input stream, the DYNEV II System was executed on the prototype evacuation case to compute evacuating traffic routing patterns consistent with the appropriate NRC guidelines. DYNEV II contains an extensive suite of data diagnostics which check the completeness and consistency of the input data specified. The analyst reviews all warning and error messages produced by the model and then corrects the database to create an input stream that properly executes to completion.

The model assigns destinations to all origin centroids consistent with a (general) radial evacuation of the EPZ and Shadow Region. The analyst may optionally supplement and/or replace these model-assigned destinations, based on professional judgment, after studying the topology of the analysis highway network. The model produces link and network-wide measures of effectiveness as well as estimates of evacuation time.

step 10 The results generated by the prototype evacuation case are critically examined. The examination includes observing the animated graphics (using the EVAN software which operates on data produced by DYNEV II) and reviewing the statistics output by the model. This is a labor-intensive activity, requiring the direct participation of skilled engineers who possess the necessary practical experience to interpret the results and to determine the causes of any problems reflected in the results.

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Essentially, the approach is to identify those bottlenecks in the network that represent locations where congested conditions are pronounced and to identify the cause of this congestion. This cause can take many forms, either as excess demand due to high rates of trip generation, improper routing, a shortfall of capacity, or as a quantitative flaw in the way the physical system was represented in the input stream. This examination leads to one of two conclusions:

• The results are satisfactory; or

• The input stream must be modified accordingly.

This decision requires, of course, the application of the user's judgment and experience based upon the results obtained in previous applications of the model and a comparison of the results of the latest prototype evacuation case iteration with the previous ones. If the results are satisfactory in the opinion of the user, then the process continues with Step 13. Otherwise, proceed to Step 11.

There are many "treatments" available to the user in resolving apparent problems. These treatments range from decisions to reroute the traffic by assigning additional evacuation destinations for one or more sources, imposing turn restrictions where they can produce significant improvements in capacity, changing the control treatment at critical intersections so as to provide improved service for one or more movements, or in prescribing specific treatments for channelizing the flow so as to expedite the movement of traffic along 'major roadway systems. Such "treatments" take the form of modifications to the original prototype evacuation case input stream. All treatments are designed to improve the representation of evacuation behavior.

As noted above, the changes to the input stream must be implemented to reflect the modifications undertaken in Step 11. At the completion of this activity, the process returns to Step 9 where the DYNEV II System is again executed.

Evacuation of transit-dependent evacuees and special facilities are included in the evacuation analysis. Fixed routing for transit buses and for school buses, ambulances, and other transit vehicles are introduced into the final prototype evacuation case data set. DYNEV II generates route-specific speeds over time for use in the estimation of evacuation times for the transit dependent and special facility population groups.

step 14 The prototype evacuation case was used as the basis for generating all region and scenario-specific evacuation cases to be simulated. This process was automated through the UNITES user interface. For each specific case, the population to be evacuated, the trip generation distributions, the highway capacity and speeds, and other factors are adjusted to produce a customized case-specific data set.

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step 15 All evacuation cases are executed using the DYNEV IISystem to compute ETE. Once results were available, quality control procedures were used to assure the results were consistent, dynamic routing was reasonable, and traffic congestion/bottlenecks were addressed properly.

step 16 Once vehicular evacuation results are accepted, average travel speeds for transit and special facility routes were used to compute evacuation time estimates for transit-dependent permanent residents, schools, hospitals, and other special facilities.

step 17 The simulation results are analyzed, tabulated and graphed. The results were then documented, as required by NUREG/CR-7002.

step 18 Following the completion of documentation activities, the ETE criteria checklist (see Appendix N) was completed. An appropriate report reference is provided for each criterion provided in the checklist.

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Step 1 StpEstablish Transit and Special Facility Evacuation IICreate

~Step and Calibrate Link-Node Analysis Network Routes and Update DYNEV II Database 13 4Step

• I

• Step 14 7 Generate DYNEV IIInput Streams for All DeveopEvacuation Regiosandcenarios Evacuation Cases Step 8 Step 15

~Execute DYNEV IIto Compute ETE for All S Create and DbgDYNEV II IptStream Evacuation Cases B Exeute IorPott 4xct YNEVII fr Prt~vauaI~sZI1 pe Ste 9vcainCs SStep Use DYNEV II Average Speed Output to Compute 1

ETE for Transit and Special Facility Routes

~Step 17 I ~Documentation Step 18 S Complete ETE Criteria Checklist Figure D-1. Flow Diagram of Activities Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station D-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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APPENDIX E Special Facility Data

E. SPECIAL FACILITY DATA The following tables list population information, as of June, 2012, for special facilities, transient attractions and major employers that are located within the PNPS EPZ. Special facilities are defined as schools, pre-schools/day cares, major employers, recreational areas, lodging facilities, correctional facilities and day camps. Transient population data is included in the tables for recreational areas and lodging facilities. Employment data is included in the tables for major employers. The location of the facility is defined by its straight-line distance (miles) and direction (magnetic bearing) from the center point of the plant. Maps of each school, pre-school/day care, major employer, recreational area, lodging facility, correctional facility and day camp are also provided.

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Table E-1. Schools within the EPZ 1 2.1 SE Manomet Elementary School 70 Manomet Point Road Plymouth (508) 830-4380 375 52 2 4.3 5SE IncahBookl lmetr 1181 State Road Plymouth (508) 830-4370 770 70 2 4.8 SSW Plymouth South High School 490 Long Pond Road Plymouth (508) 224-752:3 1,531 212 2 4.4 SSW Plymouth South Middle 48LogPnRodlyut(5)24-75 500 School48LogPnRodPyot{5822-25 707 3 4.2 W Mount Pleasant School 22 1/2 Whiting Street Plymouth (508) 830-4347 142 35 3 NatW Shanil MroElmnay6 Lincoln Street Plymouth (508) 830-4320 636 90 3 4.2 W Schyoutol mnt 3nPlymouith Schommuit 117 Long Pond Road Plymouth (508) 830-4450 1,277 191 3 3.7 W Plymouth North High School 41 Obery Street Plymouth (508) 830-4400 1,116 171 5 New1estaentChritia 1120 Long Pond Road Plymouth (508) 888-1889 111 23 5 7.7 S South Elementary School 178 Bourne Road Plymouth (508) 830-4390 755 90 6 7.8 WSW Federal Furnace School 860 Federal Furnace Road Plymouth (508) 830-4360 460 101 6 7.7 WSW Woodside School and 1 ComuntyReoureSener 34 Southers Marsh Lane Plymouth (508) 830-3384 48 1 7 5.3 WNW SChold pigEeetr 26 Alden Street Plymouth (508) 830-4335 258 36 Schoolh 7 6.0 WNW Hedge Elementary School 258 Standish Street North0-34 262 Plymouth (5883-30 269 7 6.7 W Pilgrim Academy 42 Industrial Park Road North4-686 5 9

__________________________Plymouth (0874-66 5 7

7 6.9 W

~~~~~~Rising School Tide Charter Public 6Rsi 6Rsi odPyot odPyot S8 58 4-60 4-60 304 304 7 7.2 W West Elementary School 170 Plympton Road Plymouth (508) 830-4350 478 81 8 7.9 WNW Kingston Elementary School 150 Main Street Kingston (781) 585-3821 675 1122 8 7.9 WNW Kingston Intermediate School 62 2nd Brook Street Kingston (781) 585-0472 709 67 Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station E-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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.*dLI[ U rI-dr L 8 8.2 w School 329 Bishops Highway Kingston (781) 585-2114 355 40 8 8.1 W Sacred Heart High School 399 Bishops Highway Kingston (781) 585-7511 462 68 8 11.7 WNW SiholvrLkReinlHg 256 Pembroke Street Kingston (781) 585-3844 1,251 150 8 11.6 WNW Siholve aeRgoa ide 256 Pembroke Street Kingston (781) 582-3555 610 74 9 8.9 NW Alden School 75 Alden Street Duxbury (781) 934-7630 822 106 9 10.4 NW Chandler Elementary School 93 Chandler Street Duxbury (781) 934-7680 642 126 9 8.0 NW Duxbury Bay Maritime School 457 Washington Street Duxbury (781) 934-7555 250 75 9 8.9 NW Duxbury High School 130 Saint Geo'rge Sreett Duxbury (781) 934-7650 1,017 148 9 8.9 NW Duxbury Middle School 71 Alden Street Duxbury (781) 934-7640 810 101 9 ~~~~~GoodShepherd Christian 2TeotSre uhr 71 3-07 182 9 9.0 WNW Academy 2TeotSre ubr 71 3-07 182 9 8.9 NW Pilgrim Area Collab. (High 9S8.9oNW 130 Saint George Street Duxbury (781) 934-9755 17 12 9 8.9 NW Pilgrim Area Collab. (Middle) 75 Alden Street Duxbury (781) 934-9755 5 6 9 8.9 NW Pilgrim Area Collaborative 130 Saint George Street Duxbury (781) 934-9755 17 12 10 9.9 NNW Gcovror EdadWnlw 60 Regis Road Marshfield (781) 834-5060 450 66 11 10.7 WSW Carver Elementary School 85 Main Street Carver (508) 866-6220 448 40 11 9.7 WSW Carver High School 60 South Meadow Road Carver (508) 866-6140 526 97 11 9.8 WSW Carver Middle School 60 South Meadow Road Carver (508) 866-6130 452 49 11 10.7 WSW ErinK.WahuroPimr 85 Main Street Carver (508) 866-6210 407 86 Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station E-3 Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

Table E-2. Preschools within the EPZ F 1 1____

1.4 1.4 WS SSE Garden of Knowledge Kinder Kollege j40 State RoadA*

478 State Road

-Plymouth' Plymouth 1(508) 830-6050 (508) 224-8753 440 30 5____

1 2.3 SE Leaping Frogs Preschool 21 Manomet Point Road Plymouth (508) 224-4999 20 4 2 4.5 SSE Tiny Town Inc. 1226 State Road Plymouth (508) 224-7769 45 12 3 5.1 W CidesCrave41 Westerly Road Plymouth (508) 747-9281 20 3

________Learning Center 3 4.9 W PrshopSil&Jm 1 Park Place Plymouth (508) 591-7238 20 4 3 5.7 W KinderCare - Pilgrim Hill 24 Pilgrim Hill Road Plymouth (508) 830-0817 71 16 3 4.5 W Small Scholars Preschool 8 Town Square Plymouth (774) 454-7115 38 8 3

34.5 W ~~~~~~Room School 2 Grow Nursery 8Srn aePyot 8_SriganePlmoth_50) 58 4-113

_47-1__ 3 5 3Learning Safari Day Care 8 Natalie Way Plymouth (508) 830-6805 449 34.4 WSW & Preschool9 5 8.6 S Bright Ideas Preschool 24 Mountain Hill Road Plymouth (774) 413-7466 36 6 5 9.6 S Ponds Childcare Center 133 Raymond Road Plymouth (508) 759-1333 83 17 662 W Methodist Nursery 29 1/2 Carver Road Plymouth (508) 746-7063 30 3 6 __6.2_ W School 6 8.1 WSW Miss Jo Anne's Bright 204 S Meadow Road Plymouth (508) 747-4475 25 4 Begnnngs 7 61 W W Crayon College At 98 Nicks Rock Road Plymouth (508) 747-5437 399 6.1 WNW Plymouth9 7 7 KindRo are -Rcads 3 Richards Road Plymouth (508) 746-0612 55 15 8 6.7 WNW Crayon College Inc. 24 Main Street Kingston (781) 585-5437 55 11 Growth Unlimited 8 8.6 WNW Pecol7 Green St # 1 Kingston (781) 585-5864 30 6 8 9.5 WNW Little Peoples Country 25 Wapping Road Kingston (781) 582-1399 9 3

______ _____Day____________ ___________ _________ ____

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• I . - I -

- - * ** . - -- h** -

I I 8 8.5 W Sacred Heart Early 100 Childhood 251 Bishops Highway Kingston (781) 585-2290 12 8 10.9 WNW SouathiSoreEal 142 Pembroke Street Kingston (781) 585-0400 245 10 8 8.1 WNW Wooded ArsCid 168 Main Street Kingston (781) 585-0041 45 15 9 8.9 NW After School Club Alden 75 Alden Street Duxbury (781) 934-7530 35 5 9 8.5 WNW Bay Farm Montessori 145 Loring Road Duxbury (781) 934-7101 188 42 Academy 9 10.1 WNW Berrybrook School 267 Winter Street Duxbury (781) 585-2307 54 11 9 11.4 NW BcolueRvrMneor 484 Temple Street Duxbury (781) 834-4480 10 3 9 10.4 NW Breakfast Club Chandler 93 Chandler Sreet Duxbury (781) 934-7610 30 23 Cedarhill Retreat 9 6.8 NW Conference Center 346 Standish Street Duxbury (781) 934-2207 10 2 Daycare 9 11.2 WNW Discovery Corner 88 Lake Shore Drive Duxbury (N/A) 10 3 Daycare 9

9 10.5 NW

~~~~~~Elements School Montessori 22SumrSreDuuy(7158-229 21umeStetDxuy(8)5 -22193 9 -10.4 NW Junior Club Chandler 93 Chandler Sreet Duxbury (781) 934-7610 47 8 Kindergarten Ext 9 10.4 NW Chnlr93 Chandler Sreet Duxbury (N/A) 97 8 9 10.4 NW Magic Dragon Childrens 93CadeSreDuby(7194-61702 Center93CadeSeeDubr 7193-61 102 9 9.6 WNW Pied Piper Preschool 38 Kingstown Way Duxbury (781) 585-6843 49 10 9 8.9 NW Pilgrim Area Collab. 75 Alden Street Duxbury (781) 934-7430 8 7 (Alden) 9 10.4 NW PianlgrmAear oab 93 Chandler Sreet Duxbury (781) 582-0305 13 11 9PilrimsChold Cae404 Washington Street Duxbury (781) 934-8145 76 23 Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station E-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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• I - I-I J I ~

vv South Shore Cons Preschool I ~ c.~ini ~ c*root I ~ I (MIM I J*

I A 11 10.5 WSW Capt Pal Pre School 15 Main Street Carver (508) 866-5415 30 5 1 1.7 WW Cranberry Crossing Day 42 North Main Street Carver (508) 866-2400 586 Care 11 11.7 W Kids Count Day School 185 Plymouth Street Carver (508) 866-9737 39 5 11 10.7 WSW Kidstop..Early Childhood 90 Main Street Carver (508) 866-9200 92 18 Center 11 10.7 WSW Old Colony YMCA 85 Main Street Carver (508) 833-4796 80 8 S . *" TOTAL: 2,264 419 Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station E-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Table E-3. Medical Facilities within the EPZ 2 4.5 t-lgn i-olnt I reatment 1233 State Rd SSE Center Plymouth (508) 746-2000 I 219 210 111 2 44 3 4.7 WN Chilton House Inc. 3 Chilton Street Plymouth (508) 224-7701 4 4021 108 3 2.8 W Emeritus 97 Warren Avenue Plymouth (508) 746-4343 10 7 58 3 3 3.6 W Golden Liying Center- 19 Obery Street

____Plymouth Plymouth (508) 746-2999 15 30 50225 3 3.5 W Jordan Hospital 275 Sandwich St Plymouth (781) 585-2200 15 49 79391 3 4.0 W Life Care Center of 94OeySre

___Plymouth 9ObrStet Plymouth N/A 23 04 65 796 3 4.6 W Newfield House 19 Newfield Street Plymouth (781) 585-2231 9 9157 3 3 4.1 W Plymouth Crossings 157 South Street Plymouth (781) 585-2200 9 9148 41 3 4.2 RaisHat ae 123 South Street Nursing Home Plymouth (508) 830-9990 28 28 98 96 3 3 4.4 W Stafford Hill Assisted 60StaffordStreet

___Living Plymouth (508) 224-6097 10 15 61 62 5 8.3 5W Team Works 225 Cutters Field Rd Plymouth (781) 585-5526 2 2111 5 4 7 6.3 WW Baird Center Group 16 Forest Avenue

___Home Plymouth (508) 747-4790 3 3519 97 7 6.6 W Community 130 Industrial Park45 Connections Inc. Road Plymouth (781) 585-6589 4 46 24 510 7 6.1 WW Cozy Corner ADHC LLC 94 Nicks Rock Road Plymouth (508) 746-2000 4 4122 49 7 6.5 W W Habilitation Assistance 434 Court Street Corporation Plymouth (508) 503-1457 8 8452618 8 11.8 W W Wingate at Silver Lake 17 Chipman Way Kingston (508) 224-7701 25 4 2 351

91. NW ByPath Rehabilitation 308 Kingstown Way Dubr 58 4-43 10 15 6 02 10.2 ~ ~& Nursing Center Dxuy (0)7673 1i 2 9 10.2 NW Duxbury House 298 Kingstown Way Duxbury (508) 747-9800 2 22 12 65 9 10.1 NW The Village At Duxbury 290 Kingstown Way Duxbury (508) 746-9733 6 5831 15 I 12 Rev. 1 Pilgrim Nuclear Pilgim Poer Ncler Satin KL EngneeingP.C KLD Engineering,Rev.

P.C.1 Evacuation TimePower Station Estimate Evacuation Time Estimate

Table E-4. Major Employers within the EPZ 1 0.1 SE Pilgrim Nuclear Station 600 Rocky Hill Road Plymouth (508) 830-7000 685 5%301 3 4.0 WS JR'sWholesale Club Shops at 5 Way Plymouth (508) 591-1009 75 2%18 3 .1HoeW odsTiMxx65Sop a iv Wy The Shops at (508) 747-9641 75 20%

3 41HmGod/JMx65SosaFieWyoFive W 15 3Mayflower Service Station 164 South Street Plymouth (508) 746-2009 50 5%

3 4.1 W Inc 3 3.8 Plymouth County 52 Obey S # Plymouth 508-747-2962 300 44%

Correctional Facility "' 132 3 4.4 WSW The Home Depot - Plymouth 39 Long Pond Road Plymouth (508) 830-6702 50 5% 3 5 7.9 SSW MCI Plymouth 1 Bumps Pond Road South Carver (508) 295-2647 100 44% 44 6 7.9 WSW South Shore Community 196 South Meadow Pyot 58 4-575 0 Action Council Road Plymuth_50 __74-75__5_3_ 15 7 6.7 W COF Corporation 77 Industrial Park Road Plymouth (800) 443-1920 80 30% 24 7 5.5 W Colonial Ford 147 Samoset Street Plymouth (508) 746-3400 50 60% 30 7 5.8 W Harvest Technologies 4 rso d#10 Pyot 58 3-507 0 Corporation 40GismR 0 lmuh (0)7270 54%30

-7 6reMeia loal<Null> <Null> <Null> 100 75%

60 W Productions 7 7 5.8 W SmartPack 40 Grissom Road Plymouth <Null> 250 85% 213 7 6.1 W Suncor Stainless, Inc. 70 Armstrong Road Plymouth (508) 732-9191 60 90% 54 7 6.0 W Tech-Etch Inc 45 Aldrin Road Plymouth (508) 747-0300 325 58% 189 Various (See Table E-1) Board of Education Various (See Table E-1) 2,474 44% 1,089 Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station E-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

Table E-5. Recreational Areas within the EPZ 1 1.8 WSW Plymouth Country Club 221 Warren Avenue Plymouth (508) 746-5001 38 15 2 2.8 SSE Briggs Playground 838 State Road Plymouth N/A 15 6 2 4.6 SSW Crosswinds Golf Club 424 Long Pond Road Plymouth (508) 224-6700 819 320 2 3.5 SW Forges Field 83 Jordan Road Plymouth (508) 732-9962 120 47 2 3.3 SSE Fresh Pond 220 Bartlett Road Plymouth N/A 25 10 2 4.4 SSE Manomet Recreation Facility State Road Plymouth (508) 747-2325 64 25 2 3.0 SSW Old Sandwich Golf Club 41 Doublebrook Road Plymouth (508) 209-2200 10 4 2 4.3 SSW Pinehills Golf Club 54 Clubhouse Drive Plymouth (508) 888-8700 33 13 2 2.3 SSE Stop and Shop Plaza State Road Plymouth (781) 837-1181 30 30 2 4.4 SSW Waverly Oaks Golf Club 444 Long Pond Road Plymouth N/A 415 162 3 3.9 W Avery Memorial Playground Nook Road Plymouth N/A 77 30 3 ~~~~~~Brewer Yacht Yards - Plymouth 14UinSrePlmuh (0)9-87 2510 3 4.3 W Marine14UintrePlmuh 50)9087 2610 3 4.4 W Brewster Gardens Water Street Plymouth (508) 747-4544 38 15 3 4.7 WNW Hedge House Museum 126 Water Street Plymouth N/A 14 5 3 2.8 WSW Howland House 33 Sandwich Road Plymouth (508) 746-8825 10 4 3 4.5 W Jenney Grist Mill Park 6 Spring Lane Plymouth (508) 746-6932 241 94 3 4.3 WSW JhArsrnMeoil 103 Long Pond Road Plymouth N/A 192 75

________Skating Rink 3 4.5 WNW Mayflower II Museum 137 Warren Avenue Plymouth (508) 866-2526 35 13 3 4.7 WNW Pilgrim Hall Museum 75 Court Street Plymouth (508) 866-2580 80 31 3 2.2 W Plymouth Plantation 137 Warren Avenue Plymouth N/A 1,050 410 3 2.3 W Plymouth Long Beach 1 Ryder Way Plymouth (508) 866-2526 433 169 3 4.4 WNW Plymouth Rock Water Street Plymouth (781) 837-3112 35 13 Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station E-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

4.14.2 Plymouth Yacht Club 34 Union Street Plymouth N/A 2Y U 3 5.7 W Shaw's Supermarket Plaza 20 Pilgrim Hill Road Plymouth (508) 746-3493 68 68 3 4.0 W Stephen's Field 132 Sandwich Street Plymouth N/A 23 9 3 4.7 WNW Town Wharf Enterprises Inc. 10 Town Wharf Plymouth (781) 585-9117 97 38 5 10.1 S Atlantic Country Club 450 Little Sandy Pond Road Plymouth (508) 830-3535 20 8 5 9.5 S Camp Bournedale 110 Valley Road Plymouth (508) 746-6200 117 46 5 7.8 S Camp Clark 200 Hedges Pond Road Plymouth (508) 747-4544 465 182 5 9.7 S Camp Massasoit 4 Elbow Pond Road Plymouth N/A 97 38 5 8.6 SSW Camp Squanto 200 Cutters Field Road Plymouth (508) 746-6877 428 167 5 7.2 SSE Ellisville Harbor State Park State Road Plymouth N/A 8 3 5 9.1 S Elmer E Raymond Playground 1138 Long Pond Road Plymouth N/A 4 2 5 7.3 SSE Indianhead Resort 1929 State Road Plymouth N/A 720 180 5 5.6 SSW Long Pond Public Beach and Boat5 Launch West Long Pond Road Plymouth (508) 224-6039 13 5 6.2 S Pinewoods Camp 80 Cornish Field Road Plymouth (508) 746-1622 256 100 5 10.5 S Sandy Pond Campground 834 Bourne Road Plymouth (508) 746-9590 571 223 5 8.6 S Shaw's Supermarket Plaza 2260 State Road Plymouth N/A 38 38 5 8.9 SSE Whitecliff Country Club White Cliff Drive Plymouth (508) 759-6644 20 8 5 5.7 SSW Wind-The Pines Girl Scout Center 190 West Long Pond Road Plymouth (781) 534-0249 320 125 6 6.7 SW College Pond Myles Standish State Park Plymouth N/A 255 100 6 7.2 WSW Ellis-Haven Campgrounds 531 Federal Furnace Road Plymouth (508) 747-4544 38 15 6 5.7 W Morton Park Little Pond Road Plymouth N/A 486 190 6 5.9 WSW Myles Standish State Forest 194 Cranberry Road Carver (508) 746-1622 1,060 414 6 8.4 W Pinewood Lodge Campground 190 Pinewood Road Plymouth (508) 224-2002 768 300 6 7.7 WSW Southers Marsh Golf Club 30 Southers Marsh Lane Plymouth (508) 746-7800 8 3 6 7.5 W Squirrel Run Country Club 32 Elderberry Drive Plymouth (508) 830-1199 61 24 6 8.2 WSW Village Link Golf Club 265 South Meadow Road Plymouth (508) 746-5001 61 24 Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station E-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

7 8.6 Camp Norse 112 Parting Ways Road Kingston (508) 747-1240 224 88 7 7 8.6 5.1 W WNW C~~ampna Nors NatonealhrMnm me n12PatntWy ttohe70 Allerton Road Ratinson Plymouth I(08t4714h248 N/A 35 13 7 5.1 WNW Nelson Memorial Park/Beach Nelson Street Plymouth (508) 759-9336 215 84 7 5.7 WNW Siever Field 112 Standish Avenue Plymouth (508) 833-2975 49 19 7 5.6 W Super Stop & Shop Plaza 127 Samoset Street Plymouth (781) 837-9617 66 66 7 5.9 WNW Veteran's Memorial Playground 219 Standish Avenue Plymouth (508) 746-1444 10 4 7 4.9 WNW Village Landing Marketplace 170 Water Street Plymouth (508) 746-4500 79 79 8 8.3 W Camp Mishannock 363 Bishops Highway Kingston (781) 934-9092 47 18 8 8.4 WNW Indian Pond Country Club 60 Country Club Way Kingston (508) 209-3000 148 58 9 9.0 NW Alden House Museum 105 Alden Street Duxbury (508) 746-9805 128 50 9 8.9 NW Art Complex Museum 189 Alden Street Duxbury N/A 128 50 9 12.7 NW Camp Wing 19 Myrtle Street Duxbury (508) 746-1620 520 203 9 6.8 NW Cedar Hill Retreat Center 346 Standish Street Duxbury N/A 12 5 9 8.1 NNW Duxbury Beach Gurnet Road Duxbury (508) 224-4858 4,526 1,768 9 8.4 NW Duxbury Yacht Club 70 Fairway Lane Duxbury (508) 746-7207 64 25 9 7.2 NW Myles Standish State Park Crescent Street Duxbury (508) 746-7100 128 50 9 9.5 NW North Hill Country Club 29 Merry Avenue Duxbury (781) 934-3249 128 50 10 10.7 NNW Brant Rock Beach Ocean Street Marshfield (508) 295-2117 653 255 10 10.4 NNW Green Harbor Marina 239 Dyke Road Marshfield (781) 934-2578 215 84 10 10.4 NNW Green Harbor Yacht Club 257 Dyke Road Marshfield (508) 747-6193 215 84 10 10.1 NNW Taylor Marine Corporation 95 Central Street Marshfield (781) 834-9115 215 84 11 11.2 SW Cachalot Scout Reservation SE Line Road South Carver (508) 746-0012 235 92 11 10.0 SW Shady Acres Campground 20 Shoestring Road Carver N/A 410 160 Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station E-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

Table E-6. Lodging Facilities within the EPZ A White Swan Bed and 146 Manomet Point Road 12 6 1 2.2 SE Breakfast Plymouth (508) 224-3759 1 2.2 5SFE Blue Spruce Motel 710 State Road Plymouth (508) 224-3990 58 29 3 ~~~~~~Above the Bay at Thornton 7 arnAeu lmuh (6)7608 3 3.0 W Adams House B&B 7 arnAeu lmuh (6)7608 3 4.2 W Blue Anchor Motel 7 Lincoln Street Plymouth (508) 746-9551 6 3 3 4.5 WNW By the Sea Bed & Breakfast 22 Winslow Street Plymouth (508) 830-9643 6 3 3 4.4 W Hilton Garden Inn Plymouth 4 Home Depot Drive Plymouth (781) 830-0200 122 61 3 4.6 W John Carver Inn & Spa 25 Summer Street Plymouth (508) 746-7100 160 100 3 2.2 W Pilgrim Sands Motel 150 Warren Ave Plymouth (508) 747-0900 126 63 3 4.are7eInnBeW&20 Chilton Street Plymouth (508) 746-2800 6 3 4.7 WNW Breakfast_____________

5 6.9 SSE A Beach House Oceanfront 45 Black Pond Lane Plymouth (508) 224-3517 2 1 7 Bes.WstrnWluWCld 180 Court Street Plymouth (508) 746-2222 112 56 5.2 WNW Spring 7 5.7 W Comfort Inn 155 Samoset St. (US 44) Plymouth (508) 746-2800 134 67 7 7.1 W Hampton Inn & Suites 10 Plaza Way Plymouth (508) 747-5000 329 165 7 49 W W Radisson Hotel Plymouth 180 Water Street Plymouth (508) 747-4900 95 190 4.9 WNW Harbor 8 7.9 WNW Plymouth Bay Inn and 149 Main Street Kingston (S08) 830-1849 50 25 Suites 9 ~~~~~Powder Point Bed &18PodrPitAeu Duur(7)93-2705 8.3 NNW Breakfast Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station E-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

Table E-7. Correctional Facilities within the EPZ 52 Obery St #1 Plymouth (508) 747-2962 1,600 3 3.8 W FcltPlymoutnl county correctional

' ::° , ... t* . ,, * *:*  %' * ' *: *: " - TO AL: 1,820 Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station E-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

Table E-8. Daycamps within the EPZ 7 8.6 L~d[Ip W Camp 112 Parting Ways Road Kingston (508) 286-9202 224 8 8 8.0 W Camp Mishannock 363 Bishops Highway Kingston (781) 585-8592 47 2 9 8.9 NW Before & After Dark 130 Saint George Street Duxbury (781) 934-7633 320 12 9 10.4 NW Magic Dragon Summer 93 Chandler Street Duxbury (781) 934-7671 138 6

______ _______Camp___________________

11 11.5 SW Camp Clear 40 Wareham Street Carver (508) 866-4549 70 4

.TOTAL: 799 32 Rev. 1 Pilgrim Nuclear Pilgim Ncler Poer Satin KL EngneeingP.C KLD Engineering, P.C.1 Evacuation TimePower Station Estimate Rev.

Evacuation Time Estimate

Schools Sthe f*:- ei Poweri NStlatiPon e SttEnEP 15.,

5 Miles Mies II Pilgrim Nuclear KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Figure E-2. Pre-schools / Daycares within the EPZ Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station E-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Figure E-3. Kingston Pre-schools/Daycares within the EPZ Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station E-17 KID Engineering, P.C.

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Figure E-4. Carver and Plymouth Pre-schools/Daycares within the EPZ Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station E-18 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

Figure E-5. Medical Facilities within the EPZ Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station E-19 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Figure E-6. Major Employers within the EPZ Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station E-20 KID Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

Figure E-7. Recreational Areas within the EPZ Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station E-2 1 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

Figure E-8. Plymouth Recreational Areas within the EPZ Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station E-22 KID Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

Figure E-9. Lodging Facilities within the EPZ Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station E-23 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

Figure E-1O. Correctional Facilities within the EPZ Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station E-24 KID Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

Figure E-11. Day camps within the EPZ Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station E-25 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

APPENDIX F Telephone Survey

F. TELEPHONE SURVEY F.1 Introduction The development of evacuation time estimates for the Pilgrim EPZ requires the identification of travel patterns, car ownership and household size of the population within the EPZ.

Demographic information can be obtained from Census data. The use of this data has several limitations when applied to emergency planning. First, the Census data do not encompass the range of information needed to identify the time required for preliminary activities (mobilization) that must be undertaken prior to evacuating the area. Secondly, Census data do not contain attitudinal responses needed from the population of the EPZ and consequently may not accurately represent the anticipated behavioral characteristics of the evacuating populace.

These concerns are addressed by conducting a telephone survey of a representative sample of the EPZ population'. The survey is designed to elicit information from the public concerning family demographics and estimates of response times to well defined events. The design of the survey includes a limited number of questions of the form "What would you do if ...?" and other questions regarding activities with which the respondent is familiar ("How long does it take you to ... ?")

Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station F-i KLD Engineering, P.c.

w w w.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

F.2 Survey Instrument and Sampling Plan Attachment A presents the final survey instrument used in this study. A draft of the instrument was submitted to stakeholders for comment. Comments were received and the survey instrument was modified accordingly, prior to conducting the survey.

Following the completion of the instrument, a sampling plan was developed. A sample size of approximately 500 completed survey forms yields results with a sampling error of _+4.5% at the 95% confidence level. The sample must be drawn from the EPZ population. Consequently, a list of zip codes in the EPZ was developed using GIS software. This list is shown in Table F-i. Along with each zip code, an estimate of the population and number of households in each area was determined by overlaying Census data and the EPZ boundary, again using GIS software. The proportional number of desired completed survey interviews for each area was identified, as shown in Table F-i. Note that the average household size computed in Table F-i was an estimate for sampling purposes and was not used in the ETE study.

The completed survey adhered to the sampling plan.

Table F-1. Pilgrim Telephone Survey Sampling Plan

, " "S S _ - ,, *.. .. .- .

02050 2,319 922 13 02330 7,471 2,912 41 02332 15,097 5,359 76 02360 56,433 21,256 304 02364 12,620 4,660 66 02532 22 9 0 02571 2 1 0 Total 93,964 35,119 500 Average Household Size: 2.68 Total Sample Required: 500 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station F-2 F-2 Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

F.3 Survey Results The results of the survey fall into two categories. First, the household demographics of the area can be identified. Demographic information includes such factors as household size, automobile ownership, and automobile availability. The distributions of the time to perform certain pre-evacuation activities are the second category of survey results. These data are processed to develop the trip generation distributions used in the evacuation modeling effort, as discussed in Section 5.

A review of the survey instrument reveals that several questions have a "don't know" (DK) or "refused" entry for a response. It is accepted practice in conducting surveys of this type to accept the answers of a respondent who offers a DK response for a few questions or who refuses to answer a few questions. To address the issue of occasional DK/refused responses from a large sample, the practice is to assume that the distribution of these responses is the same as the underlying distribution of the positive responses. In effect, the OK/refused responses are ignored and the distributions are based upon the positive data that is acquired.

F.3.i Household Demographic Results Household Size Figure F-i presents the distribution of household size within the EPZ. The average household contains 2.56 people. The estimated household size (2.68 persons) used to determine the survey sample (Table F-i) was drawn from Census data. The close agreement between the average household size obtained from the survey and from the Census is an indication of the reliability of the survey.

Pilgrim Household Size 50%

40%

-~30%

20%

0 10%

0%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10+i Household Size Figure F-i. Household Size in the EPZ F-3 F-3 KLD Engineering, p.c.

Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

Automobile Ownership The average number of automobiles available per household in the EPZ is 2.09. It should be noted that 1.2 percent of households do not have access to an automobile. The distribution of automobile ownership is presented in Figure F-2. Figure F-3 and Figure F-4 present the automobile availability by household size. Note that the majority of households without access to a car are single person households. As expected, nearly all households of 2 or more people have access to at least one vehicle.

Pilgrim Vehicle Availability 60%

50%

340%

N 30%

t 20%

01 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9+

Number of Vehicles Figure F-2. Household Vehicle Availability Pilgim Ncler Poer Satin KL KLD EngneeingP-C Engineering, P.C.

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Distribution of Vehicles by HH Size 1-5 Person Households l1Person *2 People *3People *4 People *5 People 100%

.*80%

S60%

• 40%

• 20%

0%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Vehicles Figure F-3. Vehicle Availability - 1 to 5 Person Households Distribution of Vehicles by HH Size 6-9+ Person Households

• 6 People E7 People8Pepe9+eol 8 People *9+ People 100%

.*80%

S60%

z 40%

20

~ 0%

,n%, ,

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Vehicles Figure F-4. Vehicle Availability - 6 to 9+ Person Households Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station F-5 KID Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

Ridesharing The overwhelming proportion (91%) of the households surveyed (who do not own a vehicle) responded that they would share a ride with a neighbor, relative, or friend if a car was not available to them when advised to evacuate in the event of an emergency. Note, however, that only those households with no access to a vehicle - 12 total out of the sample size of 500 -

answered this question. Thus, the results are not statistically significant. As such, the NRC recommendation of 50% ridesharing is used throughout this study. Figure F-5 presents this response.

Pilgrim Rideshare with Neighbor/Friend 100%

80%

-~60%

S40%

20%

0%

Yes No Figure F-5. Household Ridesharing Preference KLD Engineering, P.c.

Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station F-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Commuters Figure F-6 presents the distribution of the number of commuters in each household.

Commuters are defined as household members who travel to work or college on a daily basis.

The data shows an average of 1.16 commuters in each household in the EPZ, and 65% of households have at least one commuter.

Pilgrim Commuters 50%

40%

-*30%

0

'20%

0%

10%

01 2 34+

Number of Commuters Figure F-6. Commuters in Households in the EPZ KLD Engineering, P.c.

Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station F-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.1 Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.

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Commuter Travel Modes Figure F-7 presents the mode of travel that commuters use on a daily basis. The vast majority of commuters use their private automobiles to travel to work. The data shows an average of 1.05 employees per vehicle, assuming 2 people per vehicle - on average - for carpools.

Pilgrim Travel Mode to Work 100% 89.6%

80%

S60%

E E

o 40%

06 20%

0%

Rail Bus Walk/Bike Drive Alone Carpool (2+)

Mode of Travel Figure F-7. Modes of Travel in the EPZ F.3.2 Evacuation Response Several questions were asked to gauge the population's response to an emergency. These are now discussed:

"How many of the vehicles would your household use during an evacuation?" The response is shown in Figure F-8. On average, evacuating households would use 1.37 vehicles.

"Would your family await the return of other family members prior to evacuating the area?"

Of the survey participants who responded, 38 percent said they would await the return of other family members before evacuating and 62 percent indicated that they would not await the return of other family members.

"If you had a household pet, would you take your pet with you if you were asked to evacuate the area?" Based on the responses to the survey, 29 percent of households have a family pet.

Of the households with pets, 92 percent of them indicated that they would take their pets with them, as shown in Figure F-9.

"When evacuating with your household pet, would you evacuate to a reception center if they do not accept pets?" As shown in Figure F-10, only 7 percent of households would evacuate to a reception center with their pet.i Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station F-8 KLD Engineering, P.c.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

Vehicles Used for Evacuation 100%

80%

S60%

S40%

0

'* 20%

0%

12 3 Number of Vehicles Figure F-8. Number of Vehicles Used for Evacuation Households Evacuating with Pets 100%

80%

40% m m0%

20%0m, Yes No Figure F-9. Households Evacuating with Pets Pilgim Ncler Poer Satin KL KLD EngneeingP.C Engineering, P.C.

Rev.

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Households Evacuating with Pets to Reception Centers who do not Accept Pets 100%

,~80%

0

• ~60%

0 3= 40%

20%

0%'

Yes No Figure F-b0. Households evacuating with Pets to Care Centers "Emergency officials advise you to take shelter at home in an emergency. Would you?" This question is designed to elicit information regarding compliance with instructions to shelter in place. The results indicate that 81 percent of households who are advised to shelter in place would do so; the remaining 19 percent would choose to evacuate the area. Note the baseline ETE study assumes 20 percent of households will not comply with the shelter advisory, as per Section 2.5.2 of NUREG/CR-7002. Thus, the data obtained above is in good agreement with the federal guidance.

"Emergency officials advise you to take shelter at home now in an emergency and possibly evacuate later while people in other areas are advised to evacuate now. Would you?" This question is designed to elicit information specifically related to the possibility of a staged evacuation. That is, asking a population to shelter in place now and then to evacuate after a specified period of time. Results indicate that 71 percent of households would follow instructions and delay the start of evacuation until so advised, while the balance of 29 percent would choose to begin evacuating immediately.

F.3.3 Time Distribution Results The survey asked several questions about the amount of time it takes to perform certain pre-evacuation activities. These activities involve actions taken by residents during the course of their day-to-day lives. Thus, the answers fall within the realm of the responder's experience.

The mobilization distributions provided below are the result of having applied the analysis described in Section 5.4.1 on the component activities of the mobilization.

Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station F-lO KLD Engineering, P.C.

w Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

"How long does it take the commuter to complete preparation for leaving work?" Figure F-li presents the cumulative distribution; in all cases, the activity is completed by about 75 minutes.

Ninety percent can leave within 30 minutes.

Figure F-il. Time Required to Prepare to Leave Work/School "How long would it take the commuter to travel home?" Figure F-12 presents the work to home travel time for the EPZ. About 90 percent of commuters can arrive home within about 60 minutes of leaving work; in all cases, the activity is completed by about 120 minutes.

Work to Home Travel 100%

80%

S60%

20%

0%

0 30 6012 90 120 Travel Time (min)

Figure F-12. Work to Home Travel Time Pilgim Ncler Poer Satin KL KLD Engneeing,-Ic Engineering, P.C.1 Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.

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"How long would it take the family to pack clothing, secure the house, and load the car?"

Figure F-13 presents the time required to prepare for leaving on an evacuation trip. In many ways this activity mimics a family's preparation for a short holiday or weekend away from home. Hence, the responses represent the experience of the responder in performing similar activities.

The distribution shown in Figure F-13 has a long "tail." About 90 percent of households can be ready to leave home within 75 minutes; the remaining households require up to three hours.

Time to Prepare to Leave Home 100%

80%

0* 60%

• 40% C, S20%

0%

0 30 60 90 120 150 18 180 Preparation Time (mai)

Figure F-13. Time to Prepare Home for Evacuation Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station F-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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"How long would it take you to clear 6 to 8 inches of snow from your driveway?" During adverse, snowy weather conditions, an additional activity must be performed before residents can depart on the evacuation trip. Although snow scenarios assume that the roads and highways have been plowed and are passable (albeit at lower speeds and capacities), it may be necessary to clear a private driveway prior to leaving the home so that the vehicle can access the street. Figure F-14 presents the time distribution for removing 6 to 8 inches of snow from a driveway. The time distribution for clearing the driveway has a long tail; about 90 percent of driveways are passable within 75 minutes. The last driveway is cleared three hours after the start of this activity. Note that those respondents (43%) who answered that they would not take time to clear their driveway were assumed to be ready immediately at the start of this activity. Essentially they would drive through the snow on the driveway to access the roadway and begin their evacuation trip.

Time to Remove Snow from Driveway 100%

80%

' 40%

20%

0%

0 30 60 90 120 150 180 Travel Time (min)

Figure F-14. Time to Clear Driveway of 6"-8" of Snow F.4 Conclusions The telephone survey provides valuable, relevant data associated with the EPZ population, which have been used to quantify demographics specific to the EPZ, and "mobilization time" which can influence evacuation time estimates.

Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station F-13 KLD Engineering, P.c.

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ATTACH MENT A Telephone Survey Instrument Pilgim Ncler Poer Satin KL EngneeingP.C KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Telephone Survey Instrument COL. 1 Unused Hello, my name is _______and I'm conducting a survey for COL. 2 Unused the Emergency Management Agencies of Carver, Duxbury, COL. 3 Unused Kingston, Marshfield and Plymouth municipalities. The COL. 4 Unused information you provide will be used for emergency planning to enhance local response plans. Emergency planning for some COL. 5 Unused hazards may require evacuation. Your answers to my questions Sex COL. 8 will greatly contribute to this effort. I will not ask for your name.

1 Male 2 Female INTERVIEWER: ASK TO SPEAK TO THE HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD OR THE SPOUSE OF THE HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD.

(Terminate call if not a residence.)

DO NOT ASK:

1A. Record area code. To Be Determined COL. 9-11 lB. Record exchange number. To Be Determined COL. 12-14

2. What is your home zip code? COL. 15-19 3A. In total, how many cars, or other vehicles are COL. 20 SKIP TO usually available to the household? 1 ONE Q. 4 (DO NOT READ ANSWERS) 2 TWO 0,. 4 3 THREE 0,.4 4 FOUR Q. 4 5 FIVE 0,.4 6 SIX Q. 4 7 SEVEN Q. 4 8 EIGHT Q. 4 9 NINE OR MORE Q. 4 0 ZERO (NONE) Q. 3B X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED Q. 3B 3B. In an emergency, could you get a ride out of the CCL. 21 area with a neighbor or friend? 1 YES 2 NO X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED

4. How many people usually live in this household? CCL. 22 CCL. 23 (DO NOT READ ANSWERS) 1. ONE 0 TEN 2 TWO 1 ELEVEN 3 THREE 2 TWELVE 4 FOUR 3 THIRTEEN 5 FIVE 4 FOURTEEN 6 SIX 5 FIFTENN Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station F-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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7 SEVEN 6 SIXTEEN 8 EIGHT 7 SEVENTEEN 9 NINE 8 EIGHTEEN 9 NINETEEN OR MORE X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED

5. How many adults in the household commute to a COL. 24 SKIP TO job, or to college on a daily basis? 0 ZERO Q. 9 1 ONE Q. 6 2 TWO Q. 6 3 THREE Q. 6 4 FOUR OR MORE Q. 6 5 DON'T KNOW/REFUSED Q. 9 INTERVIEWER: For each person identified in Question 5, ask Questions 6, 7, and 8.

6. Thinking about commuter #1, how does that person usually travel to Work or college? (REPEAT QUESTION FOR EACH COMMUTER)

Commuter #1 Commuter #2 Commuter #3 Commuter #4 COL. 25 COL. 26 COL. 27 COL. 28 Rail 1 1 1 1 Bus 2 2 2 2 Walk/Bicycle 3 3 3 3 Drive Alone 4 4 4 4 Carpool-2 or more people 5 5 5 5 Don't know/Refused 6 6 6 6

7. How much time on average, would it take Commuter #1 to travel home from work or college? (REPEAT QUESTION FOR EACH COMMUTER) (DO NOT READ ANSWERS)

COMMUTER #1 COMMUTER #2 COL. 29 COL. 30 COL. 31 COL. 32 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56-1 HOUR 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56- 1 HOUR OVER 1 HOUR, BUT OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 LESS THAN 1 HOUR MINUTES 15 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 S 21-25 MINUTES' 5 MINUTES ANDi1HOUR 5 21-25 MINUTES 5 MINUTES ANDi1 30 MINUTES HOUR 30 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 6 26-30OMINUTES 6 MINUTES ANDi1HOUR 6 26-30OMINUTES 6 MINUTES ANDi1 45 MINUTES HOUR 45 MINUTES Pilerim Nuclear Power Station F-16 KLD Eneineerine. P.C.

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BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 7 31-35 MINUTES 7 MINUTES AND 2 7 31-35 MINUTES 7 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS HOURS OVER 2 HOURS OVER 2 HOURS 8 36-40 MINUTES 8 36-40 MINUTES 8 (SPECIFY __ .)__ 8 (SPECIFY __)__

9 41-45 MINUTES 9 9 41-45 MINUTES 9 0 0 DON'T KNOW DON'T KNOW

/REFUSED /REFUSED COMMUTER #3 COMMUTER #4 COL. 33 COL. 34. COL. 35 COL. 36 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56 -1iHOUR 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56 -i1HOUR OVER 1 HOUR, BUT OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 LESS THAN1iHOUR MINUTES 15 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 5 21-25 MINUTES 5 MINUTES ANDi1HOUR 5 21-25 MINUTES 5 MINUTES ANDi1 30 MINUTES HOUR 30 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 6 26-30 MINUTES 6 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 6 26-30 MINUTES 6 MINUTES ANDi1 45 MINUTES HOUR 45 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 7 31-35 MINUTES 7 MINUTES AND 2 7 31-35 MINUTES 7 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS HOURS OVER 2 HOURS OVER 2 HOURS 8 36-40 MINUTES 8 36-40 MINUTES 8 (SPECIFY __ .)__ 8 (SPECIFY __)__

9 41-45 MINUTES 9 9 41-45 MINUTES 9 0 0 DON'T KNOW DON'T KNOW

/REFUSED IRE FUSED

8. Approximately how much time does it take Commuter #1 to complete preparation for leaving work or college prior to starting the trip home? (REPEAT QUESTION FOR EACH COMMUTER) (DO NOT READ ANSWERS)

COMMUTER #1 COMMUTER #2 COL. 37 COL. 38 COL. 39 COL. 40 1 5SMINUTES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56 -i1HOUR 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56 -i1HOUR OVER 1 HOUR, BUT OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 LESS THAN 1 HOUR MINUTES 15 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 5 21-25 MINUTES 5 MINUTES ANDi1HOUR 5 21-25 MINUTES 5 MINUTES ANDi1 30 MINUTES HOUR 30 MINUTES Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station F-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 6 26-30 MINUTES 6 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 6 26-30 MINUTES 6MINUTES ANDi1 45 MINUTES HOUR 45 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 7 31-35 MINUTES 7MINUTES AND 2 7 31-35 MINUTES 7MINUTES AND 2 HOURS HOURS OVER 2 HOURS OVER 2 HOURS 8 36-40 MINUTES 8 36-40 MINUTES 8 (SPECIFY ____) 8 (SPECIFY __)__

9 41-45 MINUTES 9 9 41-45 MINUTES 9 X DON'T KNOW /REFUSED X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED CO )MMUTER #3 COMMUTER #4 COL. 41 COL. 42 CO L. 43 COL. 44 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 1 5 MINUTES OR LEESS 1 46-SO MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56 -i2HOUR 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56 -i1HOUR OVER 1 HOUR, BUT OVER 1 HOUR, BUT LESS 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 4 16-20 MINUTES THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 5 21-25 MINUTES 5 MINUTES ANDi1HOUR 5 21-25 MINUTES 5 MINUTES AND 1HOUR 30 30 MINUTES MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 6 26-30 MINUTES 6 MINUTES ANDi2HOUR 6 26-30 MINUTES 6 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 45 MINUTES M NUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 7 31-35 MINUTES 7 MINUTES AND 2 7 31-35 MINUTES MINUTES AND 2 HOURS HOURS OVER 2 HOURS 8 36-40 MINUTES 8 36-40 MINUTES OVER 2 HOURS (SPECIFY 8 (SPECIFY ___.) 8 __________)

9 41-45 MINUTES 9 9 41-45 MINUTES 9 X X DON'T KNOW /REFUSED DON'T KNOW /REFUSED

9. If you were advised by local authorities to evacuate, how much time would it take the household to pack clothing, medications, secure the house, load the car, and complete preparations prior to evacuating the area? (DO NOT READ ANSWERS)

COL. 45 COL. 46 1 LESS THAN 15 MINUTES 1 3 HOURS TO 3 HOURS 15 MINUTES 2 15-30 MINUTES 2 3 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 3 HOURS 30 MINUTES 3 31-45 MINUTES 3 3 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 3 HOURS 45 MINUTES 4 46 MINUTES-i1 HOUR 4 3 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 4 HOURS 5 1 HOUR TO 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES 5 4 HOURS TO 4 HOURS 15 MINUTES 6 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES TO 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES 6 4 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 4 HOURS 30 MINUTES 7 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES TO 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES 7 4 HOURS 31 MINUTES 10 4 HOURS 45 MINUTES 8 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES 10 2 HOURS 8 4 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 5 HOURS Pilgim Ncler Poer Satin KL EngneeingP.C KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev.

Rv 1

9 2 HOURS TO02 HOURS 15 MINUTES 9 5 HOURS TO 5 HOURS 30 MINUTES 0 2 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 30 MINUTES 0 5 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 6 HOURS X 2 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 45 MINUTES X OVER 6 HOURS (SPECIFY __)__

Y 2 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 3 HOURS COL. 47 1 DON'T KNOW/REFUSED 10 If there is 6-8" of snow on your driveway or curb, would you need to shovel out to evacuate? If yes, how much time, on average, would it take you to clear the 6-8" of snow to movethe car from the driveway or curb to begin the evacuation trip? Assume the roads are passable. (DO NOT READ RESPONSES)-

COL. 48 COL. 49 1 LESS THAN 15 MINUTES 1 OVER 3 HOURS (SPECIFY____

2 15-30 MINUTES 2 DON'T KNOW/REFUSED 3 31-45 MINUTES 4 46 MINUTES-i1 HOUR 5 1 HOUR TO 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES 6 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES TO 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES 7 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES TO 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES 8 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 9 2 HOURS TO 2 HOURS iS MINUTES 0 2 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 30 MINUTES X 2 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 45 MINUTES Y 2 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 3 HOURS Z NO, WILL NOT SHOVEL OUT

11. Please choose one of the following (READ COL. 50 ANSWERS): 1 A A. I would await the return of household commuters to evacuate together. 2 B B. I would evacuate independently and meet X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED other household members later.

12. How many vehicles would your household use during an evacuation? (DO NOT READ ANSWERS)

COL. 51 1 ONE 2 TWO 3 THREE 4 FOUR 5 FIVE 6 SIX 7 SEVEN 8 EIGHT 9 NINE OR MORE Pilg~rim Nuclear Power Station F-19 KLD Eng~ineering. P.C.

v Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. i

0 ZERO (NONE)

X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED 13A. Emergency officials advise you to take shelter at home in *in COL. 52 emergency. Would you: (READ ANSWERS) 1 A A. SHELTER; or 2 B B. EVACUATE X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED 138. Emergency officials advise you to take shelter at home now COL. 53 in an emergency and possibly evacuate later while people in 1 A other areas are advised to evacuate now. Would you: (READ 2 B ANSWERS)

A. SELTE; orX DON'T KNOW/REFUSED B. EVACUATE 14A. If you have a household pet, would you take your pet with you if you were asked to evacuate the area? (READ ANSWERS)

COL. 54 SKIP TO 1 DON'T HAVE APET END SURVEY 2 YES Q. 14B 3 NO END SURVEY X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED END SURVEY 148 When evacuating with your household pet, would you evacuate to COL. 55 a reception center if they do not accept pets? (READ ANSWERS) 1 YES 2 NO, WOULD REMAIN AT HOME NO, WOULD EVACUATE TO A 3 LOCATION WHERE I COULD TAKE MY PET X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED Thank you very much. _________________

(TELEPHONE NUMBER CALLED)

IFREQUESTED:

For additional information, contact your Municipality Emergency Management Agency during normal business hours.

I Municipality EMA Phone Massachusetts (508) 820-2000 Pilgim Ncler Poer Satin KL KLD EngneeingP.C Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Rv

APPENDIX G Traffic Management Plan

G. TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT PLAN NUREG/CR-7002 indicates that the existing TCPs and ACPs identified by the offsite agencies should be used in the evacuation simulation modeling. The traffic and access control plans for the EPZ were provided by the state.

These plans were reviewed and the TCPs were modeled accordingly.

G.1 Traffic Control Points As discussed in Section 9, traffic control points at intersections (which are controlled) are modeled as actuated signals. If an intersection has a pre-timed signal, stop, or yield control, and the intersection is identified as a traffic control point, the control type was changed to an actuated signal in the DYNEV II system. Table K-2 provides the control type and node number for those nodes which are controlled. If the existing control was changed due to the point being a Traffic Control Point, the control type is indicated as a "TCP" in Table K-2.

Figure G-1 maps the TCPs identified in the state emergency plans. Theses TCPs would be manned during evacuation by traffic guides who would, direct evacuees in the proper direction and facilitate the flow of* traffic through the intersections.

As discussed in Section 7.3, the animation of evacuation traffic conditions indicates several critical intersections which could be bottlenecks during evacuation. These critical intersections were cross-checked with the state emergency plans. All of the intersections, except one - Route 28 and Tihonet Road - were identified as TCPs in the state plan. As discussed in Section 7.3, this intersection remains congested beyond the completion of mobilization (trip generation) time.

It is recommended that the state consider this intersection as a TCP as shown in Figure G-2. This would discourage traffic flow northbound and eastbound towards the EPZ and would aid with the severe congestion on Tinhonet Road southbound coming from the EPZ.

G.2 Access Control Points It is assumed that ACPs will be established within 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> of the advisory to evacuate to discourage through travelers from using major through routes which traverse the EPZ. As discussed in Section 3.7, external traffic was only considered on three routes which traverse the study area - Route 3, Route 25, and 1-195 - in this analysis. The generation of these external trips on Route 3 is ceased at 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> after the advisory to evacuate in the simulation.

According to the Town's emergency plans, access control points will be manned by the Massachusetts State Police after the advisory to evacuate has been given. It is recommended that ACPs Route 3 and US-44 be the top priority in assigning manpower and equipment as they are the major routes traversing the EPZ and will carry the highest volume of through traffic.

Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station G-1 KLD Engineering, P.c.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

Figure G-1. PNPS Traffic Control Points G-2 KLD Engineering. P.C.

Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station G~2 Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

Key MUNICIPALITY: Wareham, MA TCP -~MOVEMENT FACILITATED I* MOVEMENT DISCOURAGED/DIVERTED LOCATION:L Route 28 &Tiqhonet Road TRAFFIc GUIDE ID: 1 SUB-AREA: Shadow 2 PER LANE (LOCAL ROADS AND RAMPS)

Tihonet Road 4PER LANE (FEWYAND RAMPS)

O TRAFFIC SIGNAL

• TRAFFIC CONES SPACED TO wIRoute 28 DISCOURAGE TRAFFIC BUT ALLOW PASSAGE (3 PER LANE): *0 ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN

1. Discourage eastbound traffic on State Route 45

2. Discourage northbound traffic on Tlihonet Road

3. Facilitate southbound movement 4 0e along Tihonet Rd to access Route 28 westbound MANPOWER/EOUIPMENT ESTIMATE 1 Traffic Guide(s) 6 Traffic Cones LOCATION PRIORITY 1

A **Traffic Guide should position himself safely Figure 6-2. Schematic of the TCP at Route 28 and Tihonet Road Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station G-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1