L-2022-110, License Amendment Request 276, Revise Fire Protection Program in Support of Reactor Coolant Pump Seal Replacement Project (Non-Proprietary)
ML22243A163 | |
Person / Time | |
---|---|
Site: | Turkey Point |
Issue date: | 08/26/2022 |
From: | Florida Power & Light Co |
To: | Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation |
Shared Package | |
ML22243A161 | List: |
References | |
L-2022-110 | |
Download: ML22243A163 (177) | |
Text
Turkey Point Nuclear Plant L-2022-110 Docket Nos. 50-250 and 50-251 Attachment 2 to Enclosure Turkey Point Nuclear Plant Unit 3 and Unit 4 License Amendment Request 276, Revise Fire Protection Program in Support of Reactor Coolant Pump Seal Replacement Project ATTACHMENT 2 APPLICATION SPECIFIC FIRE PRA MODEL TO SUPPORT LAR AMENDMENT FOR REPLACEMENT OF RCP SEALS AT TURKEY POINT UNITS 3 AND 4 (NON-PROPRIETARY VERSION)
(70 pages follow)
5(3257
$33/,&$7,2163(&,),&),5(35$02'(/72
6833257/$5$0(1'0(17)25
5(3/$&(0(172)5&36($/6
7XUNH\3RLQW8QLWVDQG
5(9,6,21
)5$0$720(,1&
7KLVGRFXPHQWKDVEHHQUHGDFWHGDQGQRORQJHUFRQWDLQV)UDPDWRPH3URSULHWDU\
,QIRUPDWLRQ
7KLVUHGDFWHGYHUVLRQLV1RQ3URSULHWDU\
35(3$5(')25 35(3$5('%<
6WXDUW%URZQ)UDPDWRPH 8VDPD)DUUDGM
'DYLG7D\ORU'ULYH &RQFRUG$YHQXH6XLWH
6XLWH &RQFRUG&$86$
&KDUORWWH1&
8)DUUDGM#MHQVHQKXJKHVFRP
3URMHFW 8$)6
5HSRUW 6537
'DWH $XJXVW
MHQVHQKXJKHVFRP &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
3UHSDUHU -D]PLQ1H9LOOH
5HYLHZHU 1DWH3UDWW
5HYLHZ0HWKRG 'HVLJQ5HYLHZ $OWHUQDWH&DOFXODWLRQ
$SSURYHU 8VDPD)DUUDGM
5HYLVLRQ5HFRUG6XPPDU\
5HYLVLRQ 5HYLVLRQ6XPPDU\
,QLWLDOXVH LVVXHG
5HSODFH$VVXPSWLRQV5HTXLULQJ9DOLGDWLRQZLWK
LVVXHGUHIHUHQFHVHGLWRULDOFKDQJHVHOLPLQDWLRQRI
$SSHQGLFHV$WKURXJK, GXHWRODUJHYROXPHRIGDWD
DYDLODEOHYLDSURMHFWILOHV
3DJH_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
7DEOHRI&RQWHQWV
,1752'8&7,21
385326(
7(&+1,&$/(9$/8$7,21
)LUH3UREDELOLVWLF$VVHVVPHQW
6XPPDU\RI35$$SSURDFK
6XPPDU\RI)LUH35$0HWKRGVLQFRUSRUDWHGLQWKHUFSVHDOUHSODFHPHQWTXDQWLILFDWLRQ
&XPXODWLYH5LVNRI&KDQJHV
6XPPDU\RI'DWD8VHGWR6XSSRUWWKH)LUH35$
$QDO\VLV+/-)LUH35$PRGHOFKDQJHVWRPRGHORIUHFRUG
3ODQW3DUWLWLRQLQJ,JQLWLRQ)UHTXHQF\5HSRUW&KDQJHV
&RPSRQHQW&DEOH5HSRUW&KDQJHV
0XOWL&RPSDUWPHQW$QDO\VLV+RW*DV/D\HU6FHQDULR5HSRUW&KDQJHV
6FHQDULR5HSRUW&KDQJHV
+5$$QDO\VLV8SGDWH
5(68/76
5LVN$QDO\VLV5HVXOWV
'HOWD5LVN5HVXOWV
&XWVHW5HYLHZ
4XDQWLILFDWLRQ6RIWZDUH
5()(5(1&(6
$33(1',;$)8//32:(5,17(51$/(9(176 )3,( ,17(51$/)/22' ,) ,03$&72)6($/
02',),&$7,21$
$33(1',;%35$48$/,7< 3((55(9,(:6) 2&/2685(623(1) 2,03$&7 %
$33(1',;&27+(5/$5,13876&
$33(1',;'),5(02'(/,1*:25.%22.$3352$&+'
$33(1',;(163&$/&6&20%,1,1*185(*$1'185(*(
3DJH_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
,QWURGXFWLRQ
7KLVDSSOLFDWLRQVSHFLILFDQDO\VLVLVEHLQJSHUIRUPHGWRHYDOXDWHWKHULVNLPSDFWRIUHSODFHPHQWRIWKHFXUUHQW
7XUNH\3RLQW 371 5HDFWRU&RRODQW3XPS 5&3 VHDOVZLWKWKH)UDPDWRPH3DVVLYH6KXW'RZQ6HDO 36'6
3DJH_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
3XUSRVH
7KLVULVNDQDO\VLVIRFXVHVRQWKH)LUH35$ 3UREDELOLVWLF5LVN$VVHVVPHQW ULVNLPSDFWRIWKHXVHRIWKH
)UDPDWRPH36'6FRQILJXUDWLRQDQGHYDOXDWHVWKHDVVRFLDWHGULVNLQFUHDVH7KLVVXSSRUWVD/LFHQVH
$PHQGPHQW5HTXHVWIRU15&DSSURYDORIDULVNLQFUHDVHWKDWH[FHHGVWKH1)3$OLFHQVHFRQGLWLRQOLPLWIRU
VHOIDSSURYDORIILUHSURWHFWLRQSURJUDPFKDQJHV
3DJH_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
7HFKQLFDO(YDOXDWLRQ
),5(352%$%,/,67,&$66(660(17
7KH)LUH35$LVXSGDWHGWRLQFRUSRUDWHDPRGHORIWKH)UDPDWRPH36'6VHDOLQFRQMXQFWLRQZLWK)LUH35$
PRGHOUHILQHPHQWVWRLQFRUSRUDWHUHFHQW(35,)LUH35$UHDOLVP185(*V
6800$5<2)35$$3352$&+
6HFWLRQSURYLGHVDGHWDLOHGGLVFXVVLRQRIWKH35$PRGHOORJLFFKDQJHVLQFRUSRUDWHGWRDGGUHVVWKH36'6
GHVLJQFRQILJXUDWLRQ$GGLWLRQDOUHILQHPHQWVWRWKH)LUH35$KDYHEHHQSHUIRUPHGWRSURYLGHDPRUHUHDOLVWLF
DVVHVVPHQWRIWKHSODQWULVNDQGWKHGHOWDULVNDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKLVPRGLILFDWLRQ7KHVHUHILQHPHQWVLQFOXGHWKH
LQWHUUXSWLEOHILUHPRGHOLQJGHILQHGLQ185(*³0HWKRGRORJ\IRU0RGHOLQJ)LUH*URZWKDQG6XSSUHVVLRQ
5HVSRQVHIRU(OHFWULFDO&DELQHW)LUHVLQ1XFOHDU3RZHU3ODQWV'>@XSGDWHGWUDQVLHQWKHDWUHOHDVHUDWHVGHILQHG
LQ185(*³0HWKRGRORJ\IRU0RGHOLQJ7UDQVLHQW)LUHVLQ1XFOHDU3RZHU3ODQW)LUH3UREDELOLVWLF5LVN
$VVHVVPHQW'>@DVZHOODVJXLGDQFHSURYLGHGLQ185(*9ROXPH³5HILQLQJDQG&KDUDFWHUL]LQJ+HDW
5HOHDVH5DWHVIURP(OHFWULFDO(QFORVXUHV'XULQJ)LUH'>@UHJDUGLQJDPRUHUHDOLVWLFDVVHVVPHQWRIWKHLPSDFWRI
ILUHVQHDUZDOOVDQGFRUQHUV
7KHVWDWXVRI)XOO3RZHU,QWHUQDO(YHQWV )3,( ,QWHUQDO)ORRGLQJ ,) )LUH35$SHHUUHYLHZVDQG)LQGLQJVDQG
2EVHUYDWLRQV ) 2 FORVXUHDFWLYLWLHVLVVXPPDUL]HGLQ$SSHQGL[%
6800$5<2)),5(35$0(7+2'6,1&25325$7(',17+(5&36($/
5(3/$&(0(1748$17,),&$7,21
7KHFKDQJHVSHUIRUPHGWRPRGHOWKH)UDPDWRPH36'6FRQILJXUDWLRQDUHFRQVLGHUHGXSGDWHVWRWKH35$PRGHO
JLYHQWKDWWKH\XVHWKHH[LVWLQJORJLFDQGUHILQHLWWRDOORZDVVHVVPHQWRI36'6PRGHOVSHFLILFIDLOXUHPRGHV
7KHXVHRI185(*185(*DQG185(*9ROXPHDVGLVFXVVHGLQWKHSUHYLRXVVHFWLRQDUH
DOVRFRQVLGHUHGWREH35$PRGHOXSGDWHVDQGQRWQHZPHWKRGVRUXSJUDGHVJLYHQWKHLUDSSOLFDWLRQRI
PHWKRGRORJLHVVLPLODUWRWKRVHDSSOLHGLQWKHRULJLQDOPRGHO3ULPDU\FKDQJHVDUHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKILUH
VXSSUHVVLRQHYHQWWUHHVWUXFWXUHKHDWUHOHDVHUDWHDSSOLFDELOLW\DQGZDOODQGFRUQHULPSDFWFULWHULDUHOD[DWLRQ
%DVHGRQWKHDERYHWKHUHSODFHPHQWRIWKH5&3VHDOLVFRQVLGHUHGD35$PDLQWHQDQFHOHYHOXSGDWHQRWDQ
XSJUDGH
&808/$7,9(5,6.2)&+$1*(6
&XPXODWLYHULVNLQFXUUHGVXEVHTXHQWWRWKHILQDO1)3$PRGHOLVSULPDULO\DVVRFLDWHGZLWKUHGXFWLRQVLQULVN
DVVRFLDWHGZLWKPRGHOUHILQHPHQWV1RSODQWPRGLILFDWLRQVH[FHHGLQJDQRPRUHWKDQPLQLPDOQHJOLJLEOHULVN
LQFUHDVHZHUHLPSOHPHQWHGVLQFHWKHILQDO1)3$SRVWWUDQVLWLRQPRGHO
6800$5<2)'$7$86('7268332577+(),5(35$
7KHSULPDU\LQSXWGDWDRWKHUWKDQWKHIDXOWWUHHORJLFFKDQJHVGLVFXVVHGLQ6HFWLRQDUHWKH5&3VHDO
IDLOXUHSUREDELOLWLHVDQGWKHV\VWHPWLPHZLQGRZIRU5&3WULSRSHUDWRUDFWLRQV
7KHWRWDO)UDPDWRPH36'65&3VHDOIDLOXUHSUREDELOLW\LV
3DJH_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
7KLVIDLOXUHSUREDELOLW\LVWKHVXPRIWKHIDLOXUHSUREDELOLWLHVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHIROORZLQJVHDOIDLOXUHPRGHV
)DLOXUHWR$FWXDWH )7$ +/- >@
)DLOXUHWR5HPDLQ6HDOHG )756 +/- >@
6SXULRXV$FWXDWLRQ 6$ +/- >@
$1$/<6,6+/-),5(35$02'(/&+$1*(67202'(/2)5(&25'
3ODQW3DUWLWLRQLQJ,JQLWLRQ)UHTXHQF\5HSRUW&KDQJHV
1RSODQWSDUWLWLRQLQJRULJQLWLRQIUHTXHQF\FKDQJHVZHUHLQFRUSRUDWHGLQWKHPRGHOXSGDWHIRUWKHUHSODFHPHQWRI
WKH5&3VHDOV
&RPSRQHQW&DEOH5HSRUW&KDQJHV
7KLV$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF0RGHO $60 WDNHVDVDEDVHOLQHIRUFRPSDULVRQWKHODVWLVVXHG)LUH35$IDXOWWUHH
5HYLVLRQ)GRFXPHQWHGXQGHUUHYLVLRQRIWKHFRPSRQHQWFDEOHUHSRUW>@
)DXOW7UHH/RJLF&KDQJHV
7KH$60PRGLILHGIDXOWWUHHDGGHGEDVLFHYHQWVDQGUHPRYHG7KHVFRSHDQGFRQFHUQVDGGUHVVHGE\WKH
FKDQJHVLVOLPLWHG7KHFKDQJHVWRWKH$60PRGLILHGIDXOWWUHHFHQWHUDURXQGDIHZGLVWLQFWDUHDVGHWDLOHG
EHORZ
5&36HDO,QGLYLGXDO0RGHOLQJ
7KH$60IDXOWWUHHQRZPRGHOVHDFKRIWKHVL[5&3VHDOV WKUHHSHUXQLW SUHVHQWDWWKHVLWHH[SOLFLWO\DQG
LQGLYLGXDOO\$VSDUWRIWKLVUHILQHPHQW5&3VDQGWKHLUDVVRFLDWHGVWHDPJHQHUDWRUV DQGIXUWKHU
LQGLYLGXDOL]HGIORZSDWKV DUHDOVRQRZPRGHOHGLQGLYLGXDOO\DQGH[SOLFLWO\LQWKH$60PRGLILHGIDXOWWUHH
7KHIDLOXUHPRGHVRIWKH36'6DOVRGLIIHUVRPHZKDWIURPWKRVHFRQVLGHUHGIRUWKHFXUUHQW5&3VHDOV7KH
$60PRGLILHGIDXOWWUHHZDVFKDQJHGWRDFFXUDWHO\PRGHOWKHQHZEHKDYLRUDQGIDLOXUHPRGHVRIWKHQHZ
VHDOV
7KHSULPDU\FKDQJHVWRWKHIDXOWWUHHLQFOXGHG
,QFRUSRUDWLRQRIDIDLOXUHPRGHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKDV\PPHWULFFRROLQJRIWKH5&6GXHWRORVVRIDX[LOLDU\
IHHGZDWHUWRDQ5&3ORRS
,QFRUSRUDWLRQRIDIDLOXUHPRGHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKUHLQLWLDWLRQRIVHDOFRROLQJDIWHUDQLQLWLDOORVVRIVHDO
FRROLQJZKLFKFRXOGUHVXOWLQWKHUPDOVKRFNWRWKHVHDOV
,VRODWLRQRI5&31RVHDOOHDNRIISDWKUHVXOWLQJLQDVLJQLILFDQWUHGXFWLRQLQWKHV\VWHPWLPHZLQGRZIRU
5&3WULSZKLFKZRXOGPDNHDQRSHUDWRUDFWLRQQRWIHDVLEOHDQGWKHUHIRUHZRXOGOHDGGLUHFWO\WRVHDO
IDLOXUHLIDOOVHDOFRROLQJLVXQDYDLODEOH>@7KH5&31RVHDOOHDNRIIOLQHLVRODWLRQYDOYHV&9
3DJH_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
$%&DUHPRGLILHGWRSURYLGHDGRXEOHEUHDNFLUFXLWFRQILJXUDWLRQGXULQJQRUPDORSHUDWLRQWR
UHGXFHWKHLPSDFWRQVHDOIDLOXUH
7KHILJXUHVEHORZSURYLGHWKHNH\ORJLFIRUWKHUHSODFHPHQW5&3VHDOVDVGHSLFWHGLQWKH&$)7$IDXOWWUHH
PRGHO
3DJH_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
)LJXUH5&36HDO5HSODFHPHQW)DXOW7UHH0RGLILFDWLRQV
3DJH_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
)LJXUH5&36HDO5HSODFHPHQW)DXOW7UHH0RGLILFDWLRQV FRQWLQXHG
3DJH_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
)LJXUH5&36HDO5HSODFHPHQW)DXOW7UHH0RGLILFDWLRQV FRQWLQXHG
3DJH_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
>@
)LJXUH5&36HDO5HSODFHPHQW)DXOW7UHH0RGLILFDWLRQV FRQWLQXHG
3DJH_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
%DVLF(YHQW0DSSLQJ&KDQJHV
&KDQJHVWRWKHFRPSRQHQW+/-EDVLFHYHQWPDSSLQJZHUHLPSOHPHQWHGWRFRUUHVSRQGWRWKHVHDOPRGHOFKDQJHV
GLVFXVVHGDERYH
&RPSRQHQW&DEOH0DSSLQJFKDQJHV
1RFRPSRQHQWFDEOHPDSSLQJFKDQJHVRIH[LVWLQJFRPSRQHQWFDEOHUHODWLRQVKLSVZDVUHTXLUHG1RQHZFLUFXLW
DQDO\VLVZDVSHUIRUPHGWRFUHDWHRUUHPRYHFRPSRQHQWFDEOHUHODWLRQVKLSV7KHFDEOHURXWLQJIRUWKH1R
VHDOOHDNRIIYDOYHVFRQWDLQHGLQSULRUYHUVLRQVRIWKLVPRGHOZHUHUHVWRUHGWRVXSSRUWLPSOHPHQWDWLRQRIWKH
)UDPDWRPH36'60DSSLQJRIWKHDVVRFLDWHG%(VWRWKHFRPSRQHQWFDEOHUDFHZD\GDWDZDVLPSOHPHQWHGWR
VXSSRUWWKH1R6HDO/HDNRIIORJLFVSHFLILHGDERYH
0XOWL&RPSDUWPHQW$QDO\VLV+RW*DV/D\HU6FHQDULR5HSRUW&KDQJHV
&KDQJHVWRKRWJDVOD\HU +*/ DQGPXOWLFRPSDUWPHQWDQDO\VLV 0&$ UHVXOWVDUHDVVRFLDWHGZLWK
LQFRUSRUDWLRQRI185(*IRULQWHUUXSWLEOHILUHV185(*IRUWUDQVLHQWILUHKHDWUHOHDVHUDWHVDQG
FRPELQLQJWKHPHWKRGVRI185(*DQG185(*IRUWKHFDEOHVSUHDGLQJURRPLQSDQHOGHWHFWLRQ
V\VWHPV6HH6HFWLRQVIRUDPRUHGHWDLOHGGLVFXVVLRQRIWKHVHFKDQJHV
7KHWDEOHEHORZSURYLGHVWKHVXPPDU\RI0&$QRQVXSSUHVVLRQSUREDELOLWLHV 163 ZKLFKKDYHEHHQUHYLVHGWR
UHIOHFW185(*DQG185(*0&$VFHQDULRVWKDWGDPDJHGDOOFDEOHVLQWKH]RQHEXWGLGQRW
FRQWULEXWHWRWKH+*/ZHUHJLYHQDFRQVHUYDWLYH163RI(WKHVHVFHQDULRVDUHQRWLQFOXGHGLQWKHWDEOH
EHORZ7KLV163ZDVVXIILFLHQWO\ORZWRUHPRYHWKHVHVFHQDULRVIURPVLJQLILFDQWULVNFRQWULEXWLRQZKLOH
GRFXPHQWLQJWKHDVVRFLDWHGILUH]RQH0&$LQWHUDFWLRQ
7DEOH0&$6FHQDULRV
6FHQDULR 163
0&$37% (
0&$37% (
0&$37% (
0&$37% (
0&$37% (
0&$37% (
3DJH_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
7DEOH0&$6FHQDULRV
6FHQDULR 163
0&$37% (
0&$37% (
0&$37% (
0&$37% (
0&$37% (
0&$37% (
0&$37% (
0&$37% (
0&$37% (
0&$37% (
0&$37% (
0&$37% (
0&$37% (
0&$37% (
0&$37% (
0&$37% (
0&$37% (
3DJH_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
7DEOH0&$6FHQDULRV
6FHQDULR 163
0&$37% (
0&$37% (
0&$37% (
0&$37% (
0&$37% (
0&$37% (
0&$37% (
0&$37% (
0&$37% (
0&$37% (
0&$37% (
0&$37% (
0&$37% (
0&$37% (
0&$37% (
0&$37% (
0&$37% (
3DJH_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
7DEOH0&$6FHQDULRV
6FHQDULR 163
0&$37% (
0&$37% (
0&$37% (
$0&$37% (
$0&$37% (
0&$37% (
0&$37% (
0&$37% (
0&$37% (
0&$37% (
0&$37% (
3DJH_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
6FHQDULR5HSRUW&KDQJHV
185(*,QFRUSRUDWLRQLQWRWKH)LUH35$YLDWKH)LUH0RGHOLQJ:RUNERRN )0:
7KHVFHQDULRUHSRUWLVXSGDWHGWRUHIOHFWWKHFKDQJHVPDGHIRUXSGDWLQJWKH1RQ6XSSUHVVLRQ3UREDELOLW\
FDOFXODWLRQIURPXVHRIWKH6'&7RROWRWKH)LUH0RGHOLQJ:RUNERRN$SSHQGL['GHVFULEHVWKHFKDQJHVPDGH
WRLPSOHPHQWWKH)LUH0RGHOLQJ:RUNERRNDQGWKH185(*LQWHUUXSWLEOHILUHVFHQDULRUHILQHPHQWV
185(*0HWKRGRORJ\
7KH,QFLSLHQW'HWHFWLRQFUHGLWHGLQWKHFDEOHVSUHDGLQJURRPLVPRGLILHGWRLQFOXGH185(*>@DORQJZLWK
185(*>@7KLVKDVEHHQGRQHIRUWKHFDEOHVSUHDGLQJURRPZKLFKLVSURYLGHGZLWKDQLQSDQHOLQFLSLHQW
GHWHFWLRQV\VWHPIRUPDQ\RIWKHKLJKULVNFRQWULEXWLRQSDQHOV7KHVZLWFKJHDUURRPVDUHSURYLGHGZLWKDUHD
ZLGHLQFLSLHQWGHWHFWLRQV\VWHPVZKLFKZHUHQRWSUHYLRXVO\FUHGLWHGLQWKH)LUH35$$UHYLHZRIWKHULVN
EHQHILWRILQFRUSRUDWLRQRIWKHVZLWFKJHDUURRPDUHDZLGHLQFLSLHQWGHWHFWLRQV\VWHPLQGLFDWHGWKDWWKHUHVXOWDQW
ULVNGHFUHDVHZRXOGEHVPDOO7KHUHIRUHQRFUHGLWIRUWKHVZLWFKJHDUDUHDZLGHLQFLSLHQWGHWHFWLRQV\VWHPLV
WDNHQ$SSHQGL[(GHVFULEHVWKHDSSURDFKXVHGIRUFUHGLWLQJWKHFDEOHVSUHDGLQJURRPLQSDQHOLQFLSLHQW
GHWHFWLRQV\VWHPVLQFRQMXQFWLRQZLWKWKH185(*DSSURDFK
1HZDQG0RGLILHG6FHQDULRV
1HZVFHQDULRVKDYHEHHQDGGHGLQWKH&DEOH6SUHDGLQJ5RRP WKH6ZLWFKJHDU5RRPV
DQG DQGWKH&RQWURO5RRP $VFHQDULRFRQWDLQLQJDOOFXELFOHVZDVDGGHGLQWKH$6ZLWFKJHDUURRPV
DQG WRDFFRXQWIRUWKHVHYHUHSRUWLRQRIWKHILUHGHILQHGDVWKDWSRUWLRQRIWKHFXELFOHILUHVWKDWLPSDFWV
WDUJHWVXSWREXWH[FOXGLQJFDEOHVLPSDFWLQJGLHVHOG\QDPLFORDGLQJIDLOXUHV+($)VFHQDULRVZHUHUHILQHGE\
SXOOLQJWKH+($)SRUWLRQRIWKHLJQLWLRQIUHTXHQF\IURPWKHLQGLYLGXDOFXELFOHVFHQDULRVDQGPHUJLQJWKHPLQWR
RQH+($)VFHQDULRIRUHDFKURRP7KLVVFHQDULRLQFRUSRUDWHGWKHWDUJHWVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHKLJKHVWULVN
LQGLYLGXDOFXELFOHVFHQDULR
7KH&DEOHVSUHDGLQJURRPDGGHGQHZVFHQDULRV6HYHUHSDQHOVFHQDULRVZHUHFUHDWHGZKLFKLQFOXGHGDOO
WDUJHWVH[FHSWWKHFORVHVWWUD\WKDWFRQWDLQHG5&3&RPSRQHQW&RROLQJ:DWHU &&: RUFRQWDLQPHQWLVRODWLRQ
SUHVVXUHVZLWFKFDEOHVZKLFKLIGDPDJHGFRXOGUHVXOWLQDORVVRI5&3VHDOFRROLQJ7KHVHWUD\VZHUH
H[FOXGHGDQG163VDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHPZHUHFUHDWHGXVLQJWKHGLVWDQFHWRWKHQHDUHVWDVVRFLDWHGWUD\8QLW
VSHFLILF163VZHUHDVVLJQHGEDVHGRQWKHORFDWLRQRIWKDWXQLW¶VFDEOHVZLWKUHVSHFWWRKLJKULVNLJQLWLRQ
VRXUFHV
7KHRULJLQDO&RQWURO5RRPPDLQFRQWUROERDUGVFHQDULRVZHUHEDVHGRQRQHVFHQDULRZLWKDOOFDELQHWVLPSDFWHG
7KLVVFHQDULRZDVVSOLWLQWRVFHQDULRVWKDWLQFOXGHGIDLOXUHRIHDFKFRPELQDWLRQRIDGMDFHQWSDQHOV
7KHWDEOHEHORZVKRZVWKHQHZVFHQDULRVDQGWKHEDVLVIRUWKHLUDGGLWLRQWRWKHPRGHO6RPHRIWKHVFHQDULRV
ZHUHQRWDGGHGEXWMXVWPRGLILHGE\FKDQJLQJWKHVFHQDULRQDPH
3DJH_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
7DEOH+/-1HZ6FHQDULRV
1HZ6FHQDULRV 'HVFULSWLRQ 5HDVRQIRU$GGLWLRQ
'+($)37% 9/RDG&HQWHU++($) 6HSDUDWH+($)VFHQDULRIRUORDGFHQWHU
(+($)37% 9/RDG&HQWHU++($) 6HSDUDWH+($)VFHQDULRIRUORDGFHQWHU
)37% &$(OHFWULFDO&DELQHWV6HYHUH 6HYHUHVFHQDULRVDGGHG
)37% &$(OHFWULFDO&DELQHWV6HYHUH 6HYHUHVFHQDULRVDGGHG
-37% &$(OHFWULFDOFDELQHWILUH6HYHUH 6HYHUHVFHQDULRVDGGHG
.37% &%(OHFWULFDOFDELQHWILUH6HYHUH 6HYHUHVFHQDULRVDGGHG
137% &(OHFWULFDOFDELQHWILUH6HYHUH 6HYHUHVFHQDULRVDGGHG
337% &(OHFWULFDOFDELQHWILUH6HYHUH 6HYHUHVFHQDULRVDGGHG
437% &$%&(OHFWULFDOFDELQHWILUH6HYHUH 6HYHUHVFHQDULRVDGGHG
+($)IRUDOOFXELFOHILUHV $%ERXQGLQJ +($)VFHQDULRDGGHGIRUDOOFXELFOHILUHV
+($)37%
&XELFOH)LUH LQ3$8
$$37% $$&XELFOH)LUH 1DPH&KDQJH
$%37% $$&XELFOH)LUH 1DPH&KDQJH
$&37% ;)05 1DPH&KDQJH
6HYHUHFXELFOHILUHVFHQDULRIRUDOO
$'37% $$WKURXJK$$&XELFOH)LUH
FXELFOHV
+($))LUHIRUDOOFXELFOHV $$ +($)VFHQDULRDGGHGIRUDOOFXELFOHILUHV
+($)37%
ERXQGLQJ&XELFOH)LUH LQ3$8
3DJH_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
7DEOH+/-1HZ6FHQDULRV
1HZ6FHQDULRV 'HVFULSWLRQ 5HDVRQIRU$GGLWLRQ
+($)ILUHIRUDOOFXELFOHV $%ERXQGLQJ +($)VFHQDULRDGGHGIRUDOOFXELFOHILUHV
+($)37%
&XELFOH)LUH LQ3$8
6HYHUHFXELFOHILUHVFHQDULRIRUDOO
$%37% $$WKURXJK$$&XELFOH)LUH
FXELFOHV
+($))LUHIRUDOO&XELFOHV $$ +($)VFHQDULRDGGHGIRUDOOFXELFOHILUHV
+($)37%
ERXQGLQJ&XELFOH)LUH LQ3$8
$+($)37% % /&$ /RDG&HQWHU+($) 6HSDUDWH+($)VFHQDULRIRUORDGFHQWHU
%+($)37% % /&% /RDG&HQWHU+($) 6HSDUDWH+($)VFHQDULRIRUORDGFHQWHU
$+($)37% % /&& /RDG&HQWHU+($) 6HSDUDWH+($)VFHQDULRIRUORDGFHQWHU
%+($)37% % /&' /RDG&HQWHU+($) 6HSDUDWH+($)VFHQDULRIRUORDGFHQWHU
$+($)37% % /&$ /RDG&HQWHU+($) 6HSDUDWH+($)VFHQDULRIRUORDGFHQWHU
%+($)37% % /&% /RDG&HQWHU+($) 6HSDUDWH+($)VFHQDULRIRUORDGFHQWHU
$+($)37% % /&& /RDG&HQWHU+($) 6HSDUDWH+($)VFHQDULRIRUORDGFHQWHU
%+($)37% % /&' /RDG&HQWHU+($) 6HSDUDWH+($)VFHQDULRIRUORDGFHQWHU
5&3VFHQDULRDGGHGIRUGLVWDQFHWR
QHDUHVW5&3FDEOHWUD\ 6HSDUDWH163
$$;5&38837% 45$%)LUH
YDOXHIRU5&3H[FOXVLRQIRUXQLWWUD\
GLVWDQFH
3DJH_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
7DEOH+/-1HZ6FHQDULRV
1HZ6FHQDULRV 'HVFULSWLRQ 5HDVRQIRU$GGLWLRQ
5&3VFHQDULRDGGHGIRUGLVWDQFHWR
QHDUHVW5&3FDEOHWUD\ 6HSDUDWH163
$.;5&38837% &&
YDOXHIRU5&3H[FOXVLRQIRUXQLWWUD\
GLVWDQFH
5&3VFHQDULRDGGHGIRUGLVWDQFHWR
QHDUHVW5&3FDEOHWUD\ 6HSDUDWH163
$<;5&38837% &
YDOXHIRU5&3H[FOXVLRQIRUXQLWWUD\
GLVWDQFH
5&3VFHQDULRDGGHGIRUGLVWDQFHWR
QHDUHVW5&3FDEOHWUD\ 6HSDUDWH163
%;5&38837% &5HOD\3DQHOV
YDOXHIRU5&3H[FOXVLRQIRUXQLWWUD\
GLVWDQFH
5&3VFHQDULRDGGHGIRUGLVWDQFHWR
QHDUHVW5&3FDEOHWUD\ 6HSDUDWH163
(;5&38837% 365$&.
YDOXHIRU5&3H[FOXVLRQIRUXQLWWUD\
GLVWDQFH
5&3VFHQDULRDGGHGIRUGLVWDQFHWR
QHDUHVW5&3FDEOHWUD\ 6HSDUDWH163
);5&38837% 45$%
YDOXHIRU5&3H[FOXVLRQIRUXQLWWUD\
GLVWDQFH
5&3VFHQDULRDGGHGIRUGLVWDQFHWR
QHDUHVW5&3FDEOHWUD\ 6HSDUDWH163
*;5&38837% 4WKURXJK45
YDOXHIRU5&3H[FOXVLRQIRUXQLWWUD\
GLVWDQFH
5&3VFHQDULRDGGHGIRUGLVWDQFHWR
QHDUHVW5&3FDEOHWUD\ 6HSDUDWH163
3;5&38837% 45WKURXJK45
YDOXHIRU5&3H[FOXVLRQIRUXQLWWUD\
GLVWDQFH
3DJH_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
7DEOH+/-1HZ6FHQDULRV
1HZ6FHQDULRV 'HVFULSWLRQ 5HDVRQIRU$GGLWLRQ
5&3VFHQDULRDGGHGIRUGLVWDQFHWR
QHDUHVW5&3FDEOHWUD\ 6HSDUDWH163
4;5&38837% 45WKURXJK45
YDOXHIRU5&3H[FOXVLRQIRUXQLWWUD\
GLVWDQFH
5&3VFHQDULRDGGHGIRUGLVWDQFHWR
QHDUHVW5&3FDEOHWUD\ 6HSDUDWH163
=;5&38837% 45WKURXJK45
YDOXHIRU5&3H[FOXVLRQIRUXQLWWUD\
GLVWDQFH
)1637% '9'&0&& 1HZ,JQLWLRQVRXUFH
0&%6FHQDULRVHSDUDWHGLQWRDGMDFHQW
&0&%37% 0&%)LUHLPSDFWLQJ&DQG&
FDELQHW
0&%6FHQDULRVHSDUDWHGLQWRDGMDFHQW
&0&%37% 0&%)LUHLPSDFWLQJ&DQG&
FDELQHW
0&%6FHQDULRVHSDUDWHGLQWRDGMDFHQW
&0&%$37% 0&%)LUH&DQG& H[F&$' FXELFOHXSWREXWH[FOXGLQJ5&3FDEOHLQ
DGMDFHQWFDELQHW
0&%6FHQDULRVHSDUDWHGLQWRDGMDFHQW
&0&%%37% 0&%)LUH&DQG& H[F&%+ FXELFOHXSWREXWH[FOXGLQJ5&3FDEOHLQ
DGMDFHQWFDELQHW
0&%6FHQDULRVHSDUDWHGLQWRDGMDFHQW
&0&%37% 0&%)LUHLPSDFWLQJ&DQG&
FDELQHW
0&%6FHQDULRVHSDUDWHGLQWRDGMDFHQW
&0&%37% 0&%)LUHLPSDFWLQJ&DQG&
FDELQHW
0&%6FHQDULRVHSDUDWHGLQWRDGMDFHQW
&0&%37% 0&%)LUHLPSDFWLQJ&DQG&
FDELQHW
3DJH_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
7DEOH+/-1HZ6FHQDULRV
1HZ6FHQDULRV 'HVFULSWLRQ 5HDVRQIRU$GGLWLRQ
0&%6FHQDULRVHSDUDWHGLQWRDGMDFHQW
&0&%37% 0&%)LUHLPSDFWLQJ&DQG&
FDELQHW
0&%6FHQDULRVHSDUDWHGLQWRDGMDFHQW
&0&%37% 0&%)LUHLPSDFWLQJ&DQG&
FDELQHW
,QGLYLGXDO6FHQDULR163&KDQJHV
6HH)5$1;TXDQWLILFDWLRQILOHVIRUXSGDWHGVFHQDULR163YDOXHVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKQHZVFHQDULRVDQG185(*
LQFRUSRUDWLRQ
163&KDQJHVIRU+RW*DV/D\HU6FHQDULRV
7KHIROORZLQJWDEOHFRQWDLQV+*/163YDOXHVIRUWKHFRPSDUWPHQWKRWJDVOD\HUVFHQDULRV7KHVHYDOXHVDUH
IURPWKH)0:DQG185(*VSUHDGVKHHWV163IRU37%DQG$37%DUHFRQVHUYDWLYH
YDOXHVUHODWLYHWRWKH)0:UHVXOWV
7DEOH)LUH=RQH+RW*DV/D\HU1639DOXHV
6FHQDULR 6RXUFH 1639DOXH
37% )0:+*/ (
37% )0:+*/ (
37% )0:+*/ (
37% )0:+*/ (
37% )0:+*/ (
37% )0:+*/ (
37% )0:+*/ (
3DJH_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
7DEOH)LUH=RQH+RW*DV/D\HU1639DOXHV
6FHQDULR 6RXUFH 1639DOXH
$37% )0:+*/ (
37% )0:+*/ (
37% )0:+*/ (
37% )0:+*/ (
37% )0:+*/ (
37% )0:+*/ (
37% )0:+*/ (
$37% )0:+*/ (
37% )0:+*/ (
%37% )0:+*/ (
$37% )0:+*/ (
+5$$QDO\VLV8SGDWH
+(3&KDQJHV
&+)36735&3) )DLOXUHWRVWRS5&3VJLYHQORVVRI&&: 6\VWHP7LPH:LQGRZ 7VZ FKDQJH
8SGDWHG7VZWRUHIOHFWWKHWLPHZLQGRZIRUWULSSLQJWKH5&3VZLWKWKH)UDPDWRPH36'6LQVWDOOHG
PLQXWHV>@
4+)36735&3) )DLOXUHWRVWRS5&3VJLYHQORVVRI,QWDNH&RROLQJ:DWHU,&: QRFKDQJH5&3WULS
UHODWHGDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWLPHZLQGRZIRUORVVRI,&:7KLVWLPHIUDPHHQYHORSHVWKHWLPHIUDPHIRU5&3WULS
DQGLVWKHUHIRUHQRWFKDQJHG
(+)3'523.9$$) 'HHQHUJL]HN9%XV$IROORZLQJVHYHUHILUHLQWKH&65 IDLOHGIRUQHZ5&3
VHDOVGXHWRWLPHUHTXLUHGH[FHHGLQJ7VZQRWFUHGLWHGLQTXDQWLILFDWLRQIRUSUH36'6PRGHO
3DJH_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
5+)35&3753%&) 7ULS5&3%&IRUDILUHLQGXFHGVSXULRXVVWDUWIROORZLQJUHDFWRUWULS IDLOHGIRUQHZ
5&3VHDOVGXHWRWLPHUHTXLUHGH[FHHGLQJ7VZQRWFUHGLWHGLQTXDQWLILFDWLRQIRUSUH36'6PRGHO
$+)36*/9/) &RQWURO6*OHYHODWWKH$63WRPDLQWDLQVHFRQGDU\KHDWVLQNXVLQJ$OWHUQDWH6KXWGRZQ
3DQHO$63ZLGHUDQJHLQVWUXPHQWDWLRQ XSGDWHGFDOFRI7VZEDVHGRQLQFOXGLQJ6*VWHDPLQJLQWLPHWR
RYHUILOOFDOFXODWLRQ+(3UHILQHPHQWWRUHGXFHFRQVHUYDWLVPLQ+(3
)7,6($/&/*/2&$/ IDLOWRLVRODWHVHDOFRROLQJSULRUWRVSXULRXVLQLWLDWLRQRIVHDOFRROLQJVXEVHTXHQWWR
LQLWLDOORVVRIFRROLQJ QHZDFWLRQVFUHHQLQJYDOXHGHWDLOHG+(3WREHGHYHORSHGLQFRQMXQFWLRQZLWK
UHYLHZDQGXSGDWHRIDVVRFLDWHGSURFHGXUHVIRU5&3VHDOUHSODFHPHQW6\VWHP7LPH:LQGRZ 7VZ LV
PLQXWHV>@
0+)35:67) )DLOXUHWRHVWDEOLVKDOWHUQDWHVXFWLRQSDWKIURP5:67WRWKHFKDUJLQJSXPSV XSGDWHG
7VZWRPLQXWHVUHVXOWHGLQIDLOXUHRIRSHUDWRUDFWLRQ7KLV+(3ZDVQRWDVLJQLILFDQWFRQWULEXWRUWR
EDVHOLQHSUH5&3VHDOUHSODFHPHQWPRGHO
5+)35(6(7) )DLOXUHWRUHVHW6,VLJQDOWRDOORZVHDOLQMHFWLRQYLDFKDUJLQJWREHUHVWRUHG XSGDWHG7VZ
WRPLQXWHV>@7KLV+(3ZDVQRWDVLJQLILFDQWFRQWULEXWRUWREDVHOLQHSUH5&3VHDOUHSODFHPHQWPRGHO
8SGDWHG'HSHQGHQF\(YDOXDWLRQ
7KHIROORZLQJWGHOD\ 7G RYHUULGHZDVLQFRUSRUDWHGLQWRWKH+5$GXULQJFXWVHWUHYLHZVZLWK1((
7DEOH+/-7LPH'HOD\$GMXVWPHQWV
+)( &RQGLWLRQDO+)( 7G2YHUULGH 0LQ &RPPHQW
7KH7GIRU*+)%/)(('/
)$)3$):7+527)VKRXOG
EHLQFUHDVHGWRPLQV
- +)%/)(('/) $)3$):7+527)
7KLVUHIOHFWVWKHPLQV
DIWHUIDLOXUHRI
$)3$):7+527
3DJH_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
5(68/76
5LVN$QDO\VLV5HVXOWV
6XPPDU\7DEOHVDQG)LJXUHV
7KHWDEOHEHORZVKRZVFXUUHQWULVNUHVXOWVZLWKDGMXVWHGYDOXHV$GMXVWHGUHVXOWVLQFRUSRUDWH&&'3&/(53
DGMXVWPHQWVIRUFRQWUROURRPDEDQGRQPHQWVFHQDULRVXVLQJWKHVDPHPHWKRGRORJ\DSSOLHGLQWKH1)3$
/$5PRGHO$GMXVWHGUHVXOWVDOVRLQFOXGHGVHWWLQJ5&3ORRSVSHFLILFDV\PPHWULFFRROLQJ ==$6<&22/$%&
IODJVWRWUXHWRHOLPLQDWHQRQPLQLPDOFXWVHWV
7DEOH+/-5LVN5HVXOWV8QLWDQG8QLW)LUH&')DQG/(5)
5LVN0HWULF 7UXQFDWLRQ %DVH5HVXOWV RIFXWVHWV $GMXVWHG
UHVXOWV
8&') ( ( (
8/(5) ( ( (
8&') ( ( (
8/(5) ( ( (
3DJH_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
7DEOH+/-)5$1;'DWDEDVH)LOHV
5LVN0HWULF )5$1;'DWDEDVH )LOH6L]H 7RS*DWH 7UXQFDWLRQ
.%
3715HYB5&36HDO0RGB8QLW
8&') B&')B^%DVH&DOF` DP $//7236 (
.%
3715HYB5&36HDO0RGB8QLW
8/(5) B/(5)B^%DVH&DOF` DP /(5)2/50 (
.%
3715HYB5&36HDO0RGB8QLW
8&') B&')B^%DVH&DOF` DP 8$//7236 (
.%
3715HYB5&36HDO0RGB8QLW
8/(5) B/(5)B^%DVH&DOF` DP 8/(5)2/50 (
7RUXQWKH)5$1;PRGHOWKHGDWDEDVHVIURP7DEOHDQGWKHIROORZLQJPRGHOILOHVZHUHXVHG
)DXOW7UHHSWQUHY)B5&36HDO0RGBFDI
5HFRYHU\)LOHSWQUHY)+)($OOB5&36HDO0RGBUHFY
55'DWDEDVHSWQUHY)+)($OOB5&36HDO0RGBUU
)ODJ)LOHSWQUHYILUHIOJ
087(;)LOH087(;FXW
3DJH_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
7KHILJXUHVEHORZLGHQWLI\WKH]RQHVZLWKKLJKHVWULVNFRQWULEXWLRQIRU8QLWDQG8QLW)LUH&')DQG/(5)UHVXOWV
8QLW5HDWRU
9 &RQWURO5RG(TXLSPHQW
6ZLWFKJHDU% 5RRP 5RRP
$OO2WKHU=RQHV
9
6ZLWFKJHDU$
5RRP
8QLWVDQG8QLWV
&RQWURO5RRP
8QLWVDQG8QLWV
&DEOH6SUHDGLQJ5RRP
)LJXUH5LVNE\)LUH=RQH 8QLW&')
3DJH_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
8QLW5HDWRU&RQWURO
5RG(TXLSPHQW5RRP
$OO2WKHU=RQHV
9
6ZLWFKJHDU%5RRP
9
6ZLWFKJHDU$
5RRP
8QLWVDQG8QLWV
&RQWURO5RRP
8QLWVDQG8QLWV
&DEOH6SUHDGLQJ5RRP
)LJXUH5LVNE\)LUH=RQH 8QLW/(5)
3DJH_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
8QLW0DLQ 8QLW5HDWRU&RQWURO
&RQGHQVHU$UHD 5RG(TXLSPHQWURRP
9 $OO2WKHU=RQHV 6ZLWFKJHDU$5RRP
8QLWVDQG8QLWV
&RQWURO5RRP
8QLWVDQG8QLWV
&DEOH6SUHDGLQJ5RRP
)LJXUH5LVNE\)LUH=RQH 8QLW&')
=RQHFRQWULEXWLRQLVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKFRQVHUYDWLYHVFHQDULRGHILQLWLRQ5HILQHPHQWRIWKHVHVFHQDULRVZLOOEHLQFRUSRUDWHGLQIXWXUH)LUH35$PRGHO
XSGDWHV
3DJH_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
8QLW5HDWRU&RQWURO
5RG(TXLSPHQWURRP
8QLW0DLQ
&RQGHQVHU$UHD
96ZLWFKJHDU$
5RRP $OO2WKHU=RQHV
8QLWVDQG8QLWV
&RQWURO5RRP
8QLWVDQG8QLWV
&DEOH6SUHDGLQJ5RRP
)LJXUH5LVNE\)LUH=RQH 8QLW/(5)
=RQHFRQWULEXWLRQLVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKFRQVHUYDWLYHVFHQDULRGHILQLWLRQ5HILQHPHQWRIWKHVHVFHQDULRVZLOOEHLQFRUSRUDWHGLQIXWXUH)LUH35$PRGHO
XSGDWHV
3DJH_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
'HOWD5LVN5HVXOWV
4XDQWLILFDWLRQRI%DVHOLQH5LVN:LWK3UHYLRXV5&36HDO0RGHOLQJ
6HW5&3VHDOIDLOXUHSUREDELOLW\%(==5&36/$%&WRYDOXHLQSUHYLRXVPRGHO DGMXVWHGIRUSHU5&3
DSSOLFDWLRQLQFXUUHQWPRGHO
6HWDV\PPHWULFFRROLQJIODJ==$6<&22/$%&WR
6HW5&3VHDOOHDNRIILVRODWLRQYDOYHKRWVKRUWSUREDELOLW\WRWRHOLPLQDWHVHDOIDLOXUHPRGHZLWK5&3VHDO
OHDNRIILVRODWLRQ&9$%&)752BVHWWR
6HWRSHUDWRUDFWLRQ)7,6($/&/*/2&$/IRULVRODWLRQRIVHDOFRROLQJWRSUHYHQWVHDOIDLOXUHGXHWRWKHUPDO
VKRFNWR
'HOWD5LVN5HVXOWV6XPPDU\
7DEOH+/-)LUH'HOWD5LVN
&') &')SUH /(5) /(5)SUH
'HOWD 'HOWD
SRVW PRGZLWK SRVW PRGZLWK
&') ,QFUHDVH /(5) ,QFUHDVH
PRG UHILQHPHQWV PRG UHILQHPHQWV
8 ( ( ( ( ( (
8 ( ( ( ( ( (
&')/(5)SUHPRGZLWKUHILQHPHQWVUHVXOWVVSHFLILHGDERYHLQFRUSRUDWHWKHVDPH)LUH35$PRGHOLQJ
UHILQHPHQWVLPSOHPHQWHGLQWKHSRVWPRGPRGHOLQWRWKHSUHPRGPRGHOWRHQVXUHWKDWWKHGHOWDULVNVSHFLILHGLV
EDVHGRQDFRQVLVWHQWOHYHORI)LUH35$PRGHOUHILQHPHQW
&XWVHW5HYLHZ
6HHSURMHFWFRUUHVSRQGHQFHILOHIRUDVXPPDU\RIGLVFXVVLRQVDFWLRQLWHPVDQGWKHLUUHVROXWLRQDVVRFLDWHGZLWK
WKHFXWVHWUHYLHZSHUIRUPHGIRUWKH5&3VHDOUHSODFHPHQW)LUH35$PRGHO
4XDQWLILFDWLRQ6RIWZDUH
7KHIROORZLQJVRIWZDUHZDVXVHGIRU)LUH35$PRGHOTXDQWLILFDWLRQ
&$)7$E
)5$1;
81&(57
)75(;DQG
3DJH_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
5HIHUHQFHV
185(*0HWKRGRORJ\IRU0RGHOLQJ)LUH*URZWKDQG6XSSUHVVLRQ5HVSRQVHIRU(OHFWULFDO&DELQHW
)LUHVLQ1XFOHDU3RZHU3ODQWV(35,3DOR$OWR&$DQGWKH861XFOHDU5HJXODWRU\&RPPLVVLRQ2IILFHRI
1XFOHDU5HJXODWRU\5HVHDUFK 5(6 :DVKLQJWRQ'&185(*
185(*0HWKRGRORJ\IRU0RGHOLQJ7UDQVLHQW)LUHVLQ1XFOHDU3RZHU3ODQW)LUH3UREDELOLVWLF5LVN
$VVHVVPHQW861XFOHDU5HJXODWRU\&RPPLVVLRQ2IILFHRI1XFOHDU5HJXODWRU\5HVHDUFK 5(6
- DVKLQJWRQ'&DQG(OHFWULF3RZHU5HVHDUFK,QVWLWXWH (35, 3DOR$OWR&$185(*DQG
(35,
185(*95HILQLQJDQG&KDUDFWHUL]LQJ+HDW5HOHDVH5DWHVIURP(OHFWULFDO(QFORVXUHV'XULQJ)LUH
9ROXPH)LUH0RGHOLQJ*XLGDQFHIRU(OHFWULFDO&DELQHWV(OHFWULF0RWRUV,QGRRU'U\7UDQVIRUPHUVDQG
WKH0DLQ&RQWURO%RDUG861XFOHDU5HJXODWRU\&RPPLVVLRQ2IILFHRI1XFOHDU5HJXODWRU\5HVHDUFK
5(6 5RFNYLOOH0'DQG(OHFWULF3RZHU5HVHDUFK,QVWLWXWH (35, 3DOR$OWR&$185(*
9DQG(35,
)UDPDWRPH&DOFXODWLRQ7XUNH\3RLQW5&36HDO+/-36'6&RROGRZQ&DOFXODWLRQ5HYLVLRQ
GDWHG -+&RUUHVSRQGHQFH/RJ,WHP)6(0/
)UDPDWRPH'RFXPHQW1XPEHU -+&RUUHVSRQGHQFH/RJ,WHP )6(0/
3DVVLYH6KXWGRZQ6HDO+/-(YDOXDWLRQRI)DLOXUHWR$FWXDWHIRU)UDPDWRPH5&36HDOV)UDPDWRPH
(QJLQHHULQJ,QIRUPDWLRQ5HFRUG'RFXPHQW1R5HYLVLRQGDWHG
3DVVLYH6KXWGRZQ6HDO+/-(YDOXDWLRQRI)DLOXUHWR5HPDLQ6HDOHG)UDPDWRPH(QJLQHHULQJ,QIRUPDWLRQ
5HFRUG'RFXPHQW1R5HYLVLRQGDWHG
3DVVLYH6KXWGRZQ6HDO+/-35$(YDOXDWLRQRI6SXULRXV$FWXDWLRQ)UDPDWRPH(QJLQHHULQJ,QIRUPDWLRQ
5HFRUG'RXPHQW1R5HYLVLRQGDWHG
185(*'HWHUPLQLQJWKH(IIHFWLYHQHVV/LPLWDWLRQVDQG2SHUDWRU5HVSRQVHIRU9HU\(DUO\:DUQLQJ
)LUH'HWHFWLRQ6\VWHPVLQ1XFOHDU)DFLOLWLHV '(/25(69(:),5( 861XFOHDU5HJXODWRU\&RPPLVVLRQ
2IILFHRI1XFOHDU5HJXODWRU\5HVHDUFK 5(6 5RFNYLOOH0')LQDOUHSRUW'HFHPEHU
371%)-57XUNH\3RLQW35$0RGHO8SGDWH5HYLVLRQ2FWREHU
3DJH_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
$33(1',&(67$%/(2)&217(176
$33(1',;$)8//32:(5,17(51$/(9(176 )3,( ,17(51$/)/22' ,) ,03$&72)6($/
02',),&$7,21$
$33(1',;%35$48$/,7< 3((55(9,(:6) 2&/2685(623(1) 2,03$&7 %
$33(1',;&27+(5/$5,13876&
& 8QFHUWDLQW\$QDO\VLV&
& &RQYHUJHQFH5HYLHZ&
& 6HQVLWLYLWLHV+/-81/DQG5&36HDO)DLOXUH9DOXH&
& 6HQVLWLYLW\RI)LUH5LVN5HVXOWVWR5&36HDO)DLOXUH3UREDELOLW\&
& 8QFHUWDLQW\0DWUL[&
& 3DUDPHWULF8QFHUWDLQW\&
& $SSHQGL[&5HIHUHQFHV&
$33(1',;'),5(02'(/,1*:25.%22.$3352$&+'
' 371)0:,PSOHPHQWDWLRQ'
' $SSHQGL['5HIHUHQFHV'
$33(1',;(163&$/&6&20%,1,1*185(*$1'185(*(
( 6XPPDU\185(*(YHQW7UHH(
( 6XPPDU\RI185(*(YHQW7UHH(
( &RPELQLQJ18*(*ZLWK185(*(
( 0HWKRGRORJ\'LIIHUHQFHV(
( )DLOXUHRIWKH9(:)'65HGXQGDQW'HWHFWLRQ6XSSUHVVLRQ&DSDELOLW\(
( 3URPSW$OHUWE\9(:)'65HGXQGDQW'HWHFWLRQ6XSSUHVVLRQ&DSDELOLW\(
( )DLOXUHRIDQ,QGHSHQGHQW6XSSUHVVLRQ6\VWHP(
( 7LPHWR7DUJHW'DPDJH(
( 185(*3DUDPHWHUV(
( &DEOH6SUHDGLQJ5RRP,Q&DELQHW'HWHFWLRQ(
( 185(*3DUDPHWHUV(
( &DEOH6SUHDGLQJ5RRP,Q&DELQHW'HWHFWLRQ(
( &DOFXODWLRQSURFHVV(
3DJH_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
$SSHQGL[$)XOO3RZHU,QWHUQDO(YHQWV )3,( ,QWHUQDO)ORRG ,) ,PSDFWRI
6HDO0RGLILFDWLRQ
7KHFULWHULDIRU1)3$SRVWWUDQVLWLRQILUHSURWHFWLRQSURJUDPFKDQJHVUHTXLULQJ15&UHYLHZLVVSHFLILFWRWKH
)LUH35$UHVXOWV+RZHYHUWRHVWLPDWHWKHLPSDFWRQWRWDOSODQWULVNWKH)3,(,)ULVNQXPEHUVDUHUHYLHZHG
ZLWKUHVSHFWWRWKHSRWHQWLDOLPSDFWRIWKHVHDOPRGLILFDWLRQ$FRQVHUYDWLYHHVWLPDWHRIWKHLPSDFWRIWKHVHDO
PRGLILFDWLRQRQWKHLQWHUQDOHYHQWVDQGIORRGLQJPRGHOVFDQEHPDGHE\DVVXPLQJWKDWWKHGHOWDULVNIRUWKH)LUH
35$DVDIUDFWLRQRIWRWDOILUHULVNFDQEHDSSOLHGWRWKH)3,(,)ULVNYDOXHV7KLVHVWLPDWHLVFRQVHUYDWLYHVLQFH
WKH)3,(,)PRGHOVDUHQRWDVVHQVLWLYHWRVHDOIDLOXUHJLYHQWKDWWKHVFHQDULRVIRUZKLFKWKH5&3VHDOZRXOG
DFWXDWHDUHOLPLWHGWREODFNRXWVFHQDULRVDQGUDQGRPIDLOXUHVRIWKHWKHUPDOEDUULHUFRROLQJDQGVHDOLQMHFWLRQ
V\VWHPVZKLFKDUHIDUOHVVOLNHO\WKDQILUHLQGXFHGIDLOXUHVRIWKHVHV\VWHPV
7KHFXUUHQWPRGHORIUHFRUG)3,(,)ULVNIRU371LV 371%)-55HYLVLRQ>@
8QLW &') /(5)
8QLW ( (
8QLW ( (
)LUH35$7RWDO5LVNSRVW)UDPDWRPH36'6LQVWDOODWLRQDQGWKHULVNXVLQJWKH)LUH35$ZLWKUHILQHPHQWV
LQFRUSRUDWHGIRUWKHFXUUHQW5&3VHDOVDQGDVVRFLDWHG'HOWD5LVN SHUUHDFWRU\HDU DUH IURP6HFWLRQ
)LUH5LVN
&') &')SUH /(5) /(5)SUH
8QLW SRVW PRGZLWK &') SRVW PRGZLWK /(5)
,QFUHDVH ,QFUHDVH
PRG UHILQHPHQWV PRG UHILQHPHQWV
8QLW ( ( ( ( ( (
8QLW ( ( ( ( ( (
$SSOLFDWLRQRIWKHDERYHLQFUHDVHWRWKH)3,(,)PRGHOUHVXOWVUHSRUWHGDERYHUHVXOWVLQWKHIROORZLQJSRVW
PRGDQGGHOWDULVNYDOXHV SHUUHDFWRU\HDU
3DJH$_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
)3,(,)5LVN
&') &')SUH /(5) /(5)SUH
8QLW SRVW PRGZLWK &') SRVW PRGZLWK /(5)
,QFUHDVH ,QFUHDVH
PRG UHILQHPHQWV PRG UHILQHPHQWV
8QLW ( ( ( ( ( (
8QLW ( ( ( ( ( (
7KHWRWDOPRGULVNLQFOXGLQJWKHFRQVHUYDWLYHHVWLPDWHRIWKH)3,(,)ULVNLQFUHDVHLV
7RWDO)LUHDQG)3,(,)5LVN
&') &')SUH /(5) /(5)SUH
8QLW SRVW PRGZLWK &') SRVW PRGZLWK /(5)
,QFUHDVH ,QFUHDVH
PRG UHILQHPHQWV PRG UHILQHPHQWV
8QLW ( ( ( ( ( (
8QLW ( ( ( ( ( (
3DJH$_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
$SSHQGL[%35$4XDOLW\ 3HHU5HYLHZV) 2&ORVXUHV2SHQ) 2,PSDFW
7KH)3,(35$PRGHORIUHFRUGIRUWKLVHYDOXDWLRQLV5HYLVLRQDVGRFXPHQWHGLQ371%)-5
5HYLVLRQ³7XUNH\3RLQW35$0RGHO8SGDWH' 5HIHUHQFH
7KH35$PRGHOVKDYHEHHQDVVHVVHGDJDLQVW5*³$Q$SSURDFKIRU'HWHUPLQLQJWKH7HFKQLFDO
$GHTXDF\RI3UREDELOLVWLF5LVN$VVHVVPHQW5HVXOWVIRU5LVN,QIRUPHG$FWLYLWLHV'5HYLVLRQ7KH,QWHUQDO
(YHQWV35$PRGHOZDVVXEMHFWWRDVHOIDVVHVVPHQWDQGDIXOOVFRSHSHHUUHYLHZFRQGXFWHGLQ-DQXDU\
,Q$SULODIRFXVHGSHHUUHYLHZZDVSHUIRUPHGDVVHVVLQJWKHKXPDQUHOLDELOLW\DQDO\VLV +5$ DQGLQWHUQDO
IORRGLQJDQDO\VLVSRUWLRQVRIWKH35$DJDLQVWWKH6WDQGDUG¶VUHTXLUHPHQWV$IRFXVHGSHHUUHYLHZZDV
SHUIRUPHGLQ2FWREHUWRDVVHVVSRUWLRQVRIWKH35$PRGHODVVRFLDWHGZLWKFRPPRQFDXVHIDLOXUH
DQDO\VLV/HYHODQDO\VLVDQGLQWHUIDFLQJV\VWHP/2&$V
7KH,QWHUQDO(YHQWV35$WHFKQLFDODGHTXDF\KDVSUHYLRXVO\EHHQUHYLHZHGE\WKH15&LQSUHYLRXVDSSOLFDWLRQV
IRUWUDQVLWLRQWR1)3$DQGUHORFDWLRQRIVXUYHLOODQFHIUHTXHQF\UHTXLUHPHQWVWROLFHQVHHFRQWURO1R35$
XSJUDGHVDVGHILQHGE\WKH$60(35$6WDQGDUG5$6DKDYHRFFXUUHGWRWKH,QWHUQDO(YHQWV35$PRGHO
7KH)LUH35$PRGHOZDVVXEMHFWWRDVHOIDVVHVVPHQWDQGDIXOOVFRSHSHHUUHYLHZFRQGXFWHGLQ)HEUXDU\
$VXEVHTXHQWSHHUUHYLHZSHUIRUPHGLQ0DUFKZDVDIRFXVHGVFRSHSHHUUHYLHZDGGUHVVLQJWKH
)66+5$DQG350WHFKQLFDOHOHPHQWVRIWKH)LUH35$
)LQGLQJFORVXUHUHYLHZVZHUHLVVXHGRQWKHLGHQWLILHG35$PRGHOVLQ)HEUXDU\DQG-XQHRI2SHQILQGLQJV
ZHUHUHYLHZHGDQGFORVHGXVLQJWKHSURFHVVGRFXPHQWHGLQ$SSHQGL[;WR1(,1(,DQG1(,
³&ORVHRXWRI)DFWVDQG2EVHUYDWLRQV' ) 2V DVDFFHSWHGE\15&LQWKHVWDIIPHPRUDQGXPGDWHG0D\
0/$ 7KHUHVXOWVRIWKLVUHYLHZKDYHEHHQGRFXPHQWHGDQGDUHDYDLODEOHIRU15&DXGLW
7DEOH%SURYLGHVDVXPPDU\RIWKHUHPDLQLQJILQGLQJVDQGRSHQLWHPV
7KHRQO\UHPDLQLQJRSHQLVVXHVIURPWKHSHHUUHYLHZSURFHVVIRU7XUNH\3RLQWDUHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKH)LUH
35$7KH7DEOHEHORZSURYLGHVDOLVWLQJRIWKHRSHQILQGLQJVDQGWKHVWDWXVRIWKHLUUHVROXWLRQDVZHOODVDQ
DVVHVVPHQWRIWKHLPSDFWRQWKLVHYDOXDWLRQ
)LQDOO\WKHRSHQLWHPVLQWKH371&KDQJH'DWDEDVHZHUHH[DPLQHGIRUWKHLUSRWHQWLDOLPSDFWRQWKHULVN
DQDO\VLVIRUWKLV/$57KHRSHQLWHPVLQYROYHGWKHUHPRYDORIFRQVHUYDWLVPVRUGRFXPHQWDWLRQFKDQJHV7KH
IRUPHUZRXOGRQO\UHGXFHWKHHVWLPDWHGLPSDFWRIWKH5&36HDOPRGLILFDWLRQWKHODWWHUZRXOGKDYHQRHIIHFW
7KHUHPDLQLQJIHZZHUHUHYLHZHGDQGMXGJHGWRKDYHPLQLPDOLPSDFWRQWKHULVNDQDO\VLVRIWKLV/$5
3DJH%_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
7DEOH%7XUNH\3RLQW2SHQ3HHU5HYLHZ,VVXHV
6XSSRUWLQJ
,VVXH (YDOXDWLRQ
5HTXLUHPHQW
$QXQFHUWDLQW\DQDO\VLVZDVQRWSHUIRUPHGIRU
WKHFXUUHQWILUH35$7KHSUHYLRXVGRFXPHQWHG 7KHXQFHUWDLQW\DQGVHQVLWLYLW\DQDO\VLV
XQFHUWDLQW\DQDO\VLVLVPXOWLSOHUHYLVLRQVROGDQG KDVVLQFHEHHQXSGDWHGDQGKDVEHHQ
81&$ KDVQRWEHHQPDLQWDLQHGZLWKWKHPXOWLSOH UHYLVHGWRLQFRUSRUDWHWKHLPSDFWRIWKH
FKDQJHVLPSOHPHQWHGLQWKHILUH35$ 5&3VHDOUHSODFHPHQW6HH$SSHQGL[
7KHXQFHUWDLQW\DQGVHQVLWLYLW\FDOFXODWLRQ V &
QHHGWREHSHUIRUPHGIRUWKHODWHVW)35$PRGHO
,QUHYLHZLQJWKHFDOFXODWLRQRIWKH163
GHYHORSPHQWIRUWKHKRWJDVOD\HUVFHQDULRLQ
3$8LWZDVLGHQWLILHGWKDWWKHHTXDWLRQLV
LQFRUUHFWDQGQRWDSSURSULDWHO\DFFRXQWLQJIRUWKH
7KLVLVVXHVLPSDFWKDVEHHQUHYLHZHG
WUDQVLHQWIUHTXHQF\7KHXVHRIWKLVHTXDWLRQDQG
DQGGHWHUPLQHGWREHQRQULVN
LWVLQSXWVVKRXOGEHUHYLHZHGIRUDOOVFHQDULRVRI
)66& VLJQLILFDQW7KHFXUUHQWPRGHOKDVEHHQ
WKLVW\SHWRHQVXUHWKDWWKHDSSOLFDEOHLQSXWVDUH
XSGDWHGWRFRUUHFWWKHGLVFUHSDQF\
EHLQJXVHGFRUUHFWO\LQWKHRYHUDOOFDOFXODWLRQ
QRWHG
7KLVLVDFRQFHUQIRUWKRVH3$8VWKDWPRGHOIXOO
URRPEXUQRXWWUDQVLHQWVFHQDULRV7KHWUDQVLHQW
IUHTXHQF\LVRQO\LQFOXGHGLQWKHKRWJDVOD\HU
VFHQDULR
7KH163FDOFXODWLRQIRU7*2LVFDOFXODWHG
LPSURSHUO\IRUVFHQDULR-37%7KH163 7KLVLVVXH¶VLPSDFWKDVEHHQUHYLHZHG
FDOFXODWLRQXVHVDPRWRUDVWKH+557KH DQGGHWHUPLQHGWREHQRQULVN
LJQLWLRQVRXUFHLVRLOIRUWKLVVRXUFH7KH163IRU VLJQLILFDQW7KHFXUUHQWPRGHOKDVEHHQ
)66& XSGDWHGWRFRUUHFWWKHGLVFUHSDQF\
WKLVVFHQDULRQHHGVWREHXSGDWHGWR
DSSURSULDWHO\DFFRXQWIRUWKHLJQLWLRQVRXUFHW\SH QRWHG
DQGFKDUDFWHULVWLFV2WKHU7*2ILUHVVKRXOGEH
UHYLHZHGIRUWKLVVDPHLQFRUUHFWFDOFXODWLRQ
5()(5(1&(6FLWHGLQDERYHWH[W
5()(5(1&(6
371%)-57XUNH\3RLQW35$0RGHO8SGDWH5HYLVLRQ2FWREHU
3DJH%_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
$SSHQGL[&2WKHU/$5,QSXWV
& 81&(57$,17<$1$/<6,6
& &RQYHUJHQFH5HYLHZ
7KHFRQYHUJHQFHUHYLHZVXPPDUL]HGEHORZLVFRQVHUYDWLYHO\EDVHGRQWKH)5$1;UHVXOWVSULRUWRDGMXVWPHQWIRUFRQWUROURRPDEDQGRQPHQWVFHQDULR
&&'3VDQG&/(53V,QFOXVLRQRIWKHDGMXVWPHQWZLOODGGWKHVDPHLQFUHDVHLQULVNIRUWKHGLIIHUHQWWUXQFDWLRQTXDQWLILFDWLRQV
7DEOH&4XDQWLILFDWLRQ&RQYHUJHQFH6XPPDU\
5LVN5HVXOWVDW6SHFLILHG7UXQFDWLRQ9DOXHV 5LVN,QFUHDVHDW6SHFLILHG7UXQFDWLRQ9DOXHV
( ( ( ( ( (WR( (WR( (WR( (WR(
8&')
8/(5)
8&')
8/(5)
7KHUHVXOWVXVHGIRUWKLVDSSOLFDWLRQDUHEDVHGRQ(WUXQFDWLRQIRU&')DQG(WUXQFDWLRQIRU/(5)
3DJH&_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
& 6HQVLWLYLWLHV+/-81/DQG5&36HDO)DLOXUH9DOXH
6HQVLWLYLW\IRU81/FRPSRQHQWVQRWIDLOHG TXDQWLILHGIRU&')RQO\DW(WUXQFDWLRQZLWKRXW&&'3DGMXVWPHQWV
IRUFRQWUROURRPDEDQGRQPHQWVFHQDULRV
7DEOH&81/6HQVLWLYLW\
8QLWV %DVHOLQH QR81/IDLOXUHV 'HFUHDVH
8QLW&') ( (
8QLW&') ( (
7KHGHFUHDVHLQULVNQRWHGDERYHLVEDVHGRQDQRQFRQVHUYDWLYHDVVXPSWLRQWKDWDOO81/FRPSRQHQWVDUH
XQDIIHFWHGE\DQ\ILUHVFHQDULRV7KHUHIRUHWKHDFWXDOUHGXFWLRQLQULVNVKRXOGWKH81/FRPSRQHQWVEHFUHGLWHG
LVH[SHFWHGWREHVLJQLILFDQWO\ORZHUWKDQWKHYDOXHVSHFLILHGDERYH
& 6HQVLWLYLW\RI)LUH5LVN5HVXOWVWR5&36HDO)DLOXUH3UREDELOLW\
7DEOH&;5&3)DLOXUH6HQVLWLYLW\
%DVHOLQH ;5&36HDO)DLOXUH3UREDELOLW\ (
8QLWV &') /(5) &') ,QFUHDVH /(5) ,QFUHDVH
8QLW ( ( ( (
8QLW ( ( ( (
3DJH&_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
7DEOH&;5&3)DLOXUH6HQVLWLYLW\
%DVHOLQH ;5&36HDO)DLOXUH3UREDELOLW\ (
8QLWV &') /(5) &')
/(5) 'HFUHDVH
'HFUHDVH
8QLW ( (
8QLW ( (
& 8QFHUWDLQW\0DWUL[
185(*&5LVEURNHQLQWRGLVWLQFWWDVNV7KHXQFHUWDLQW\FRQWULEXWLRQWRWKHDQDO\VLVIRUHDFKRIWKHVH
WDVNVLVRXWOLQHGLQ7DEOH&EHORZ
7DEOH&8QFHUWDLQW\0DWUL[
7DVN
6RXUFHVRI8QFHUWDLQW\ 6HQVLWLYLW\RIWKH5HVXOWVWRWKH6RXUFH V RI8QFHUWDLQW\
1R
'XULQJVFHQDULRGHYHORSPHQWWKH]RQHRILQIOXHQFHZDVQRWOLPLWHG
WRWKHSK\VLFDODQDO\VLVXQLWERXQGDU\,IWKH]RQHRILQIOXHQFH
LQFOXGHGWDUJHWVLQDGMDFHQWILUH]RQHVWKHVHWDUJHWVZHUHDOVR
7KLVWDVNSRVHVDOLPLWHGVRXUFHRI
LQFOXGHGUHJDUGOHVVRIWKHLUILUH]RQHORFDWLRQ,QDGGLWLRQWKHPXOWL
XQFHUWDLQW\EH\RQGWKHFUHGLWWDNHQ
FRPSDUWPHQWDQDO\VLVIXUWKHUUHGXFHVWKLVXQFHUWDLQW\E\
IRUERXQGDULHVDQGSDUWLWLRQV
DGGUHVVLQJWKHSRWHQWLDOLPSDFWRIIDLOXUHRISDUWLWLRQHOHPHQWVRQ
TXDQWLILFDWLRQ7KLVVRXUFHRIXQFHUWDLQW\LVQRWLPSDFWHGE\WKH
5&3VHDOUHSODFHPHQW
3DJH&_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
7DEOH&8QFHUWDLQW\0DWUL[
7DVN
6RXUFHVRI8QFHUWDLQW\ 6HQVLWLYLW\RIWKH5HVXOWVWRWKH6RXUFH V RI8QFHUWDLQW\
1R
7KLVWDVNSRVHVSHUKDSVWKH
KLJKHVWSRWHQWLDOIRUHUURULIQRW
XQFHUWDLQW\7KHPDSSLQJRIEDVLF
7KHSRWHQWLDOIRUXQFHUWDLQW\LVUHGXFHGDVDUHVXOWRIPXOWLSOH
HYHQWVWRFRPSRQHQWVUHTXLUHVQRW
RYHUODSSLQJWDVNVLQFOXGLQJWKH062H[SHUWSDQHO$GGLWLRQDO
RQO\WKHFRQVLGHUDWLRQRIIDLOXUH
LQWHUQDOUHYLHZVDQGWKHFKDQJHHYDOXDWLRQSURFHVVSHUIRUPHGLQ
PRGHV DFWLYHYHUVXVSDVVLYH EXW
VXSSRUWRIWKH1)3$/$5DSSOLFDWLRQIXUWKHUUHGXFHXQFHUWDLQW\
DQXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIWKH$SSHQGL[
LQWKLVWDVN1RDGGLWLRQDOVRXUFHVRIXQFHUWDLQW\DUHLQWURGXFHGE\
5IXQFWLRQVQRWSUHYLRXVO\
WKH5&3VHDOUHSODFHPHQWVLQFHQRQHZFRPSRQHQWVUHTXLULQJ
FRQVLGHUHGULVNVLJQLILFDQWLQWKH
PDSSLQJDUHDGGHGWRWKHPRGHO
)3,(PRGHO:KHQSHUIRUPHG
FRUUHFWO\WKHRQO\XQFHUWDLQW\LV
UHODWHGWRWKH062SURFHVV
7KHOLPLWHGQXPEHURI<FRPSRQHQWV PRVWDFWLYHFRPSRQHQWV
FUHGLWHGLQWKHILUH35$ZHUHLQFOXGHGLQWKH6DIH6KXWGRZQ
1RWUHDWPHQWRIXQFHUWDLQW\LV
$QDO\VLVGDWD DVZHOODVWKHFUHGLWLQJE\H[FOXVLRQRI<
W\SLFDOO\UHTXLUHGIRUWKLVWDVN
FRPSRQHQWV ZKHUHMXVWLILHG KHOSVWRUHGXFHXQQHFHVVDU\
EH\RQGWKHXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIWKH
FRQVHUYDWLVP6HQVLWLYLW\TXDQWLILFDWLRQVZHUHSHUIRUPHGLQZKLFK
FDEOHVHOHFWLRQDSSURDFK LH
WKH<FRPSRQHQWVZHUHDVVXPHGWREHDYDLODEOH DVRSSRVHGWR
PDSSLQJDQDFWLYHEDVLFHYHQWWRD
GDPDJHG IRUDOOILUHVFHQDULRV7KHUHVXOWVRIWKHVHVHQVLWLYLW\UXQV
SDVVLYHFRPSRQHQWIRUZKLFK
DUHSURYLGHGLQ6HFWLRQ&7KHDFWXDOFRQILJXUDWLRQLQZKLFKWKH
SRZHUFDEOHVZHUHQRWVHOHFWHG
<FRPSRQHQWVDUHORVWLQVRPHILUH]RQHVEXWQRWDOOILUH]RQHV
$GGLWLRQDOO\35$FUHGLWHG
ZRXOGUHVXOWLQDVPDOOHUUHGXFWLRQLQ&')/(5)WKDQWKDWLGHQWLILHG
FRPSRQHQWVIRUZKLFKFDEOH
LQWKHVHQVLWLYLW\HYDOXDWLRQ7KHUHIRUHWKHLPSDFWRIWKLV
URXWLQJLQIRUPDWLRQZDVQRW
XQFHUWDLQW\LVQRWFRQVLGHUHGSDUWLFXODUO\VLJQLILFDQWLQOLJKWRIFUHGLW
SURYLGHGUHSUHVHQWDVRXUFHRI
IRUWKHVHFRPSRQHQWVE\H[FOXVLRQZKHUHWKHLUORVVZDVFUHDWLQJD
XQFHUWDLQW\ FRQVHUYDWLVP LQWKDW
VLJQLILFDQWLPSDFWRQWKHULVNRIDJLYHQILUHVFHQDULRDQGZKHUH
<FRPSRQHQWVFRXOGEHDVVXPHG
WKHLUDYDLODELOLW\FRXOGEHVXEVWDQWLDWHGE\JHQHUDOSODQW
IDLOHGXQQHFHVVDULO\
GHVLJQOD\RXW7KH5&3VHDOUHSODFHPHQWGRHVQRWLQWURGXFHDQ\
QHZ<FRPSRQHQWVLQWRWKHDQDO\VLV
3DJH&_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
7DEOH&8QFHUWDLQW\0DWUL[
7DVN
6RXUFHVRI8QFHUWDLQW\ 6HQVLWLYLW\RIWKH5HVXOWVWRWKH6RXUFH V RI8QFHUWDLQW\
1R
4XDOLWDWLYHVFUHHQLQJZDVQRW
SHUIRUPHGKRZHYHUVWUXFWXUHV ,QWKHHYHQWWKDWDVWUXFWXUHZKLFKFRXOGOHDGWRDSODQWWULSZDV
ZHUHHOLPLQDWHGIURPWKHJOREDO H[FOXGHGLQFRUUHFWO\LWVFRQWULEXWLRQWR&')ZRXOGEHVPDOO ZLWKD
DQDO\VLVERXQGDU\DQGLJQLWLRQ &&'3FRPPHQVXUDWHZLWKEDVHULVN DQGZRXOGOLNHO\EHRIIVHWE\
VRXUFHVGHHPHGWRKDYHQRLPSDFW LQFOXVLRQRIWKHDGGLWLRQDOLJQLWLRQVRXUFHVRQWKHUHGXFWLRQRIRWKHU
RQWKHILUH35$ZHUHH[FOXGHG VFHQDULRIUHTXHQFLHV$VLPLODUDUJXPHQWFDQEHPDGHIRULJQLWLRQ
IURPWKHTXDQWLILFDWLRQEDVHGRQ VRXUFHVIRUZKLFKVFHQDULRGHYHORSPHQWZDVGHHPHGXQQHFHVVDU\
TXDOLWDWLYHVFUHHQLQJFULWHULD7KH 7KLVVRXUFHRIXQFHUWDLQW\LVQRWDOWHUHGE\WKH5&3VHDO
RQO\FULWHULRQVXEMHFWWRXQFHUWDLQW\ UHSODFHPHQW
LVWKHSRWHQWLDOIRUSODQWWULS
)3,(DQGILUH35$SHHUUHYLHZV LQFOXGLQJWKH) 2UHVROXWLRQ
$UHDFWRUWULSLVDVVXPHGDVWKH
SURFHVV LQWHUQDODVVHVVPHQWVDQGWKH1)3$/$5FKDQJH
LQLWLDWLQJHYHQWIRUDOOTXDQWLILFDWLRQ
HYDOXDWLRQSURFHVVDUHXVHIXOLQH[HUFLVLQJWKHPRGHODQG
7KLVLVVRPHZKDWFRQVHUYDWLYH
LGHQWLI\LQJZHDNQHVVHVZLWKUHVSHFWWRWKLVDVVXPSWLRQ1R
VLQFHQRWDOOILUHVSRVWXODWHGZLOO
FKDQJHVWRWKHDVVXPHGSUREDELOLW\WKDWDUHDFWRUWULSRFFXUVLQ
UHVXOWLQDSODQWWULS
FRQMXQFWLRQZLWKDILUHIRUWKH5&3VHDOUHSODFHPHQW
,JQLWLRQVRXUFHFRXQWLQJLVDQDUHD
ZLWKLQKHUHQWXQFHUWDLQW\KRZHYHU
WKHUHVXOWVDUHQRWSDUWLFXODUO\
VHQVLWLYHWRFKDQJHVLQLJQLWLRQ
VRXUFHFRXQWV7KHSULPDU\VRXUFH
RIXQFHUWDLQW\IRUWKLVWDVNLV 7KHFRQVHUYDWLVPLQWKHLJQLWLRQIUHTXHQF\GDWDZKLFKLVDOVR
DVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHIUHTXHQF\ OLQNHGWRFRQVHUYDWLVPLQQRQVXSSUHVVLRQSUREDELOLW\GDWD
YDOXHVIURP185(*&5>@ VSHFLILHGLQ185(*>@DSSHDUVWRLQWURGXFHDVLJQLILFDQW
ZKLFKUHVXOWLQXQFHUWDLQW\GXHWR FRQVHUYDWLVP7KLVXQFHUWDLQW\FRQVHUYDWLVPLVQRWDOWHUHGE\WKH
YDULDELOLW\DPRQJSODQWVDORQJZLWK 5&3VHDOUHSODFHPHQW
VRPHVLJQLILFDQWFRQVHUYDWLVPLQ
GHILQLQJWKHIUHTXHQFLHVDQGWKHLU
DVVRFLDWHGKHDWUHOHDVHUDWHV
EDVHGRQOLPLWHGILUHHYHQWVDQG
ILUHWHVWGDWD
3DJH&_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
7DEOH&8QFHUWDLQW\0DWUL[
7DVN
6RXUFHVRI8QFHUWDLQW\ 6HQVLWLYLW\RIWKH5HVXOWVWRWKH6RXUFH V RI8QFHUWDLQW\
1R
2WKHUWKDQVFUHHQLQJRXW 4XDQWLWDWLYHVFUHHQLQJLVOLPLWHGWRUHIUDLQLQJIURPIXUWKHUVFHQDULR
SRWHQWLDOO\ULVNVLJQLILFDQWVFHQDULRV UHILQHPHQWRIWKRVHVFHQDULRVZLWKDUHVXOWLQJ&')/(5)EHORZWKH
LJQLWLRQVRXUFHV WKHUHLVQR VFUHHQLQJWKUHVKROG$OORIWKHUHVXOWVZHUHUHWDLQHGLQWKH
XQFHUWDLQW\IURPWKLVWDVNRQWKH FXPXODWLYH&')/(5)7KHUHIRUHWKLVWDVNLVQRWDVRXUFHRI
ILUH35$UHVXOWV XQFHUWDLQW\LQWKH)LUH35$
7KHDSSURDFKWDNHQIRUWKLVWDVN 7KHHPSOR\PHQWRIJHQHULFILUHPRGHOLQJVROXWLRQVGLGQRWLQWURGXFH
LQFOXGHG WKHXVHRIJHQHULFILUH DQ\VLJQLILFDQWFRQVHUYDWLVP'HWDLOHGILUHPRGHOLQJZDVRQO\
PRGHOLQJWUHDWPHQWVLQOLHXRI DSSOLHGZKHUHWKHUHGXFWLRQLQFRQVHUYDWLVPZDVOLNHO\WRKDYHD
FRQVHUYDWLYHVFRSLQJDQDO\VLV PHDVXUDEOHLPSDFW'HWDLOHGILUHPRGHOLQJZDVSHUIRUPHGXQGHU
WHFKQLTXHVDQG OLPLWHGGHWDLOHG 7DVNZKHUHDSSURSULDWHLQFOXGLQJWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRIPXOWLSRLQW
ILUHPRGHOLQJZDVSHUIRUPHGWR WUHDWPHQWVEDVHGRQVSOLWIUDFWLRQVIRUILUHVLPSDFWLQJRQO\WKH
UHILQHWKHVFHQDULRVGHYHORSHG LJQLWLRQVRXUFHYHUVXVILUHVLPSDFWLQJH[WHUQDOWDUJHWV
XVLQJWKHJHQHULFILUHPRGHOLQJ
VROXWLRQV7KHSULPDU\ 7KH185(*&5>@DQG185(*9ROXPH>@KHDW
FRQVHUYDWLVPLQWURGXFHGE\WKLV UHOHDVHUDWHVLQWURGXFHVLJQLILFDQWFRQVHUYDWLVPJLYHQWKHOLPLWHG
WDVNLVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHKHDW ILUHWHVWGDWDDYDLODEOHWRGHILQHWKHKHDWUHOHDVHUDWHVDQGWKH
UHOHDVHUDWHVVSHFLILHGLQ DVVRFLDWHGILUHGHYHORSPHQWWLPHOLQH6RPHDGGLWLRQDOVFHQDULR
185(*&5>@DQG185(* UHILQHPHQWZDVDSSOLHGWRPRUHUHDOLVWLFDOO\GHILQHWKHULVN
9ROXPH>@ DVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKH5&3VHDOUHSODFHPHQWPRGLILFDWLRQ
8QFHUWDLQW\FRQVLGHUDWLRQVDUH &LUFXLWDQDO\VLVZDVSHUIRUPHGDVSDUWRIWKH$SSHQGL[5$QDO\VLV
OLPLWHGWRHUURUVLQFLUFXLWIDLOXUH 5HILQHPHQWVLQWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRIWKHFLUFXLWDQDO\VLVUHVXOWVWRWKH
DQDO\VLVZKHUHDFDEOHZDV ILUH35$ZHUHSHUIRUPHGRQDFDVHE\FDVHEDVLVZKHUHWKH
GHHPHGLQFDSDEOHRIFDXVLQJORVV VFHQDULRULVNTXDQWLILFDWLRQZDVODUJHHQRXJKWRZDUUDQWIXUWKHU
RIDSDUWLFXODUIXQFWLRQFUHGLWHGLQ DQDO\VLV7KHUHIRUHWKHXQFHUWDLQW\FRQVHUYDWLVPZKLFKUHPDLQVLQ
WKHILUH35$6LPLODUWR7DVN WKHHYDOXDWLRQLVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKVFHQDULRVZKLFKGRQRWFRQWULEXWH
ZLWKWKHH[FHSWLRQRIWKH062 VLJQLILFDQWO\WRWKHRYHUDOOILUHULVN
SURFHVV WKLVWDVNKDVQR
DVVRFLDWHGXQFHUWDLQW\ZKHQ 1RQHZFLUFXLWDQDO\VLVZDVSHUIRUPHGLQVXSSRUWRIWKH5&3VHDO
SHUIRUPHGFRUUHFWO\ UHSODFHPHQW)LUH35$XSGDWH
3DJH&_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
7DEOH&8QFHUWDLQW\0DWUL[
7DVN
6RXUFHVRI8QFHUWDLQW\ 6HQVLWLYLW\RIWKH5HVXOWVWRWKH6RXUFH V RI8QFHUWDLQW\
1R
&LUFXLWIDLOXUHPRGHOLNHOLKRRGDQDO\VLVZDVJHQHUDOO\OLPLWHGWR
WKRVHFRPSRQHQWVZKHUHVSXULRXVRSHUDWLRQFRXOGQRWEHFDXVHG
E\WKHJHQHUDWLRQRIDVSXULRXVVLJQDO7KLVDSSURDFKOLPLWHGWKH
7KHXQFHUWDLQW\DVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKH LQWURGXFWLRQRIQRQFRQVHUYDWLYHXQFHUWDLQWLHV)RUWKHµVLPSOH¶
DSSOLHGFRQGLWLRQDOIDLOXUH FDVHVWKHSRWHQWLDOH[LVWVIRUDVVXPLQJDIDLOXUHOLNHOLKRRGJUHDWHU
SUREDELOLWLHVSRVHVFRPSHWLQJ WKDQYHUVXV RUUDQGRP IDLOXUHOLNHOLKRRGLQVRPHDUHDVZKHUH
FRQVLGHUDWLRQV2QWKHRQHKDQGD WKHFDEOHVFDSDEOHRIFDXVLQJVSXULRXVRSHUDWLRQDUHQRWORFDWHG
IDLOXUHSUREDELOLW\IRUVSXULRXV $GGLWLRQDOUHILQHPHQWWRWKLVDSSURDFKZDVSHUIRUPHGDV
RSHUDWLRQFRXOGEHDSSOLHGEDVHG QHFHVVDU\RQULVNVLJQLILFDQWVFHQDULRV6RWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRI
VROHO\RQFDEOHVFRSHZLWKRXW IXUWKHUFLUFXLWIDLOXUHSUREDELOLWLHVLVFRQVLGHUHGWRKDYHPLQLPDO
FRQVLGHUDWLRQRIOHVVGLUHFWILUH LPSDFWRQWKHUHVXOWV
DIIHFWV HJDIDLOXUHOLNHOLKRRG
7KHXVHRI185(*&59ROXPH>@&LUFXLW)DLOXUH0RGH
DSSOLHGWRWKHVSXULRXVRSHUDWLRQRI
DQG/LNHOLKRRGSUREDELOLWLHVHQVXUHGWKDWWKHODWHVWVWDWHRI
DQ029ZLWKRXWFRQVLGHUDWLRQRI
NQRZOHGJHUHODWHGWRWKHOLNHOLKRRGRIDSDUWLFXODUIDLOXUHPRGHLV
WKHILUHLQGXFHGJHQHUDWLRQRI
DGGUHVVHGLQWKHDQDO\VLV7KHSULPDU\XQFHUWDLQW\ZRXOGEHLQ
VSXULRXVVLJQDOWRFORVHRURSHQ
OLPLWLQJWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRIWKHDVVRFLDWHGIDLOXUHOLNHOLKRRGVWR
WKH029 2QWKHRWKHUKDQGD
VSHFLILFFRPSRQHQWVRIFRQFHUQDQGQRWDOOFDEOHVZKHUHDSSOLFDEOH
IDLOXUHSUREDELOLW\IRUVSXULRXV
DQGWKHFRQVHUYDWLVPDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHYDOXHVXVHGDQGWKH
RSHUDWLRQFRXOGEHDSSOLHGGHVSLWH
DVVXPSWLRQWKDWILUHGDPDJHWRDFDEOHZLWKLQD]RQHRILQIOXHQFH
WKHDEVHQFHRIFDEOHVFDSDEOHRI
UHVXOWVLQWKHFDEOHIDLOLQJ SUREDELOLW\ RUIDLOLQJDWWKHKRWVKRUW
FDXVLQJVSXULRXVRSHUDWLRQLQD
SUREDELOLW\DVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHFLUFXLWIDLOXUHPRGH
JLYHQORFDWLRQ
$QHZKRWVKRUWSUREDELOLW\ZDVLQFRUSRUDWHGIRUWKH'&IDLORSHQ
5&31RVHDOOHDNRIIYDOYHLVRODWLRQYDOYHVXVLQJWKHDSSURSULDWH
YDOXHVSHFLILHGLQ185(*9ROXPH
3DJH&_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
7DEOH&8QFHUWDLQW\0DWUL[
7DVN
6RXUFHVRI8QFHUWDLQW\ 6HQVLWLYLW\RIWKH5HVXOWVWRWKH6RXUFH V RI8QFHUWDLQW\
1R
7KHSULPDU\XQFHUWDLQW\LQWKLVWDVN 'HWDLOHGILUHPRGHOLQJZDVSHUIRUPHGRQO\RQWKRVHVFHQDULRV
LVLQWKHDUHDRIWDUJHWIDLOXUH ZKLFKRWKHUZLVHZRXOGKDYHEHHQQRWDEOHULVNFRQWULEXWRUVDQGRQO\
SUREDELOLWLHV&RQVHUYDWLYHKHDW ZKHUHUHPRYDORIFRQVHUYDWLVPLQWKHJHQHULFILUHPRGHOLQJVROXWLRQ
UHOHDVHUDWHVPD\UHVXOWLQ ZDVOLNHO\WRSURYLGHEHQHILWHLWKHUYLDDVPDOOHU]RQHRILQIOXHQFHRU
DGGLWLRQDOWDUJHWGDPDJH1RQ WRFUHGLWDXWRPDWLFRUPDQXDOVXSSUHVVLRQ)LUHPRGHOLQJZDVXVHG
FRQVHUYDWLYHKHDWUHOHDVHUDWHV WRHYDOXDWHWKHWLPHWRDEDQGRQPHQWIRUFRQWUROURRPILUHVFHQDULRV
ZRXOGKDYHDQRSSRVLWHHIIHFW IRUDUDQJHRIILUHKHDWUHOHDVHUDWHV7KHDQDO\VLVPHWKRGRORJ\
FRQVHUYDWLVPLVSULPDULO\DVVRFLDWHGZLWKFRQVHUYDWLVPLQWKHKHDW
&UHGLWIRUILUHEULJDGHUHVSRQVH UHOHDVHUDWHVVSHFLILHGLQ185(*&5>@DQG185(*
DQGGHWHFWLRQDUHEDVHGRQ 9ROXPH>@
185(*>@GDWDDVZHOODV
LQFRUSRUDWLRQRILQWHUUXSWLEOHILUH 6RPHDGGLWLRQDOVFHQDULRUHILQHPHQWZDVDSSOLHGWRPRUH
DSSURDFKHVXVLQJ185(* UHDOLVWLFDOO\GHILQHWKHULVNDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKH5&3VHDO
JXLGDQFH UHSODFHPHQWPRGLILFDWLRQ
+XPDQHUURUSUREDELOLWLHV
UHSUHVHQWDSRWHQWLDOO\ODUJH
XQFHUWDLQW\IRUWKHILUH35$JLYHQ
WKHLPSRUWDQFHRIKXPDQDFWLRQVLQ &RQVHUYDWLYH+(3DGMXVWPHQWVZHUHPDGHWRWKHQRPLQDO+(3
WKHEDVHPRGHO6LQFHPDQ\RIWKH YDOXHVXVHGLQWKH)3,(PRGHOSHUWKHJXLGDQFHLQ185(*
+(3YDOXHVZHUHDGMXVWHGIRUILUH >@PHWKRGRORJ\
WKHMRLQWGHSHQGHQF\PXOWLSOLHUV $'HWDLOHGDQDO\VLVZDVSHUIRUPHGIRUDOOILUHVSHFLILF+)(V$IORRU
GHYHORSHGIRUWKH)3,(PRGHODOVR YDOXHRI(ZDVDSSOLHGIRUDOOFRPELQDWLRQV
UHSUHVHQWDSRWHQWLDOIRU
LQWURGXFLQJDGHJUHHRI
FRQVHUYDWLVP
6LQFHWKLVLVDTXDOLWDWLYH
HYDOXDWLRQWKHUHLVQRTXDQWLWDWLYH
6HLVPLFILUHLQWHUDFWLRQKDVQRLPSDFWRQILUHULVNTXDQWLILFDWLRQ
LPSDFWZLWKUHVSHFWWRWKH
XQFHUWDLQW\RIWKLVWDVN
3DJH&_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
7DEOH&8QFHUWDLQW\0DWUL[
7DVN
6RXUFHVRI8QFHUWDLQW\ 6HQVLWLYLW\RIWKH5HVXOWVWRWKH6RXUFH V RI8QFHUWDLQW\
1R
$VWKHFXOPLQDWLRQRIRWKHUWDVNV
PRVWRIWKHXQFHUWDLQW\DVVRFLDWHG
ZLWKTXDQWLILFDWLRQKDVDOUHDG\ $VHQVLWLYLW\HYDOXDWLRQRIWKHWUXQFDWLRQOLPLWXVHGLQWKHDQDO\VLVLV
EHHQDGGUHVVHG7KHRWKHUVRXUFH SURYLGHGLQ6HFWLRQ&
RIXQFHUWDLQW\LVWKHVHOHFWLRQRIWKH
WUXQFDWLRQOLPLW
7KLVWDVNGRHVQRWLQWURGXFHDQ\
QHZXQFHUWDLQWLHVEXWLVLQWHQGHGWR
1$
DGGUHVVKRZXQFHUWDLQWLHVPD\
LPSDFWWKHILUHULVN
7KHGRFXPHQWDWLRQWDVNFRPSLOHVWKHUHVXOWVRIWKHRWKHUWDVNV
7KLVWDVNGRHVQRWLQWURGXFHDQ\
6HHVSHFLILFWHFKQLFDOWDVNVIRUDGLVFXVVLRQRIWKHLUDVVRFLDWHG
QHZXQFHUWDLQWLHVWRWKHILUHULVN
XQFHUWDLQW\DQGVHQVLWLYLW\
$GLVFXVVLRQRIWKHFRPELQHGILUH35$VSHFLILF+/5VDQG65VSHUWKH$16$60(VWDQGDUG>@UHODWHGWR
XQFHUWDLQW\DUHSURYLGHGEHORZ
350$8QFHUWDLQWLHVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKORFDWLRQRIHTXLSPHQWDQGFDEOHVDUHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKXQNQRZQ
ORFDWLRQFRPSRQHQWVDQGWKHLUH[FOXVLRQYLDDVVXPHGURXWLQJ7KLVLVDGGUHVVHGE\WKHUHTXLUHPHQWVRI
)66(ZLWKUHVSHFWWRLPSDFWRQILUHVFHQDULRGHYHORSPHQWGLVFXVVHGEHORZ
)4)5HIHUHQFHVUHTXLUHPHQWVRI+/548)DQG/(* ZLWK48)DQG/(*VSHFLILFDOO\UHODWHGWR
FKDUDFWHUL]DWLRQRIPRGHOXQFHUWDLQW\DQGDVVXPSWLRQV 7KHVH65VDUHDGGUHVVHGE\WKLVUHSRUWLQ7DEOH
&DERYHDVZHOODVWKHSDUDPHWULFXQFHUWDLQW\DQDO\VLVSURYLGHGLQ6HFWLRQ&
&RQYHUJHQFHWUXQFDWLRQHYDOXDWLRQV DGGUHVVLQJ48% DUHDGGUHVVHGLQ6HFWLRQ&
+/5)66()66+)66+8QFHUWDLQWLHVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKILUHPRGHOLQJKDYHEHHQDGGUHVVHGLQWKH)LUH
0RGHOLQJ$QDO\VHVWRHQVXUHWKDWWKHXVHRIILUHPRGHOLQJFRUUHODWLRQVLVFRQVLVWHQWZLWKWKHJXLGDQFHDQG
OLPLWDWLRQVVSHFLILHGLQ185(*6XSSOHPHQW
)66+/-($VVXPHGFDEOHURXWLQJ H[FOXVLRQRI<FRPSRQHQWV KDVEHHQSHUIRUPHGEDVHGRQDQ
HYDOXDWLRQRIWKHURXWLQJRIUHTXLUHGFDEOHVIRUWKHDVVRFLDWHGFRPSRQHQWVZLWKUHVSHFWWRWKHORFDWLRQLQ
ZKLFKWKH\DUHWREHH[FOXGHG7KHUHIRUHQRXQFHUWDLQW\LVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKLVDFWLYLW\
,*1$%)LUH,JQLWLRQ)UHTXHQF\FDOFXODWLRQLVFRQVLVWHQWZLWK185(*>@IUHTXHQFLHV
)UHTXHQFLHVZHUHFRQVHUYDWLYHO\DVVXPHGWRQRWQHHGD%D\HVLDQXSGDWHIURPWKHLQGXVWU\IUHTXHQFLHV$Q
XSGDWHIRUFXUUHQWSODQWGDWDZRXOGEHH[SHFWHGWRUHGXFHWKHWRWDOSODQWELQIUHTXHQFLHV
3DJH&_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
&)$8VHG185(*9ROXPH>@DVWKHEDVLVIRUIDLOXUHOLNHOLKRRGDQGKRWVKRUWGXUDWLRQIDFWRUV
+/581&$6HHWDEXODWLRQRIXQFHUWDLQWLHVE\185(*&5WDVNVLVSURYLGHGDERYH
& 3DUDPHWULF8QFHUWDLQW\
3DUDPHWULFXQFHUWDLQW\KDVEHHQSHUIRUPHGXVLQJXQDGMXVWHG&&'3&/(53DQGXQIDFWRUHG&$)7$FXWVHWV WR
DOORZHYDOXDWLRQRIXQFHUWDLQW\DVVRFLDWHGZLWKLJQLWLRQIUHTXHQF\VHYHULW\IDFWRUDQGQRQVXSSUHVVLRQ
SUREDELOLW\VHSDUDWHO\ 7KHUHVXOWVRIWKH81&(57PRGHOTXDQWLILFDWLRQDUHSURYLGHGEHORZ7KHVHUHVXOWV
VKRZJRRGFRUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQWKH81&(57FDOFXODWHGPHDQDQGWKHSRLQWYDOXHULVNTXDQWLILFDWLRQV
3DJH&_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
8&')
3DJH&_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
8/(5)
3DJH&_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
8&')
3DJH&_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
8/(5)
3DJH&_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
& $33(1',;&5()(5(1&(6
(35,15&5(6)LUH35$0HWKRGRORJ\IRU1XFOHDU3RZHU)DFLOLWLHV(35,
185(*&5$XJXVW
(35,15&5(6)LUH3UREDELOLVWLF5LVN$VVHVVPHQW0HWKRGV(QKDQFHPHQWV(OHFWULF3RZHU
5HVHDUFK,QVWLWXWH (35, 3DOR$OWR&$DQG861XFOHDU5HJXODWRU\&RPPLVVLRQ2IILFHRI
1XFOHDU5HJXODWRU\5HVHDUFK 5(6 5RFNYLOOH0'(35,DQG185(*&5
6XSSOHPHQW
7XUNH\3RLQW)35$6XPPDU\5HSRUW185(*&57DVN5HSRUW1R
5HY-XQH
6WDQGDUGIRU/HYHO/DUJH(DUO\5HOHDVH)UHTXHQF\3UREDELOLVWLF5LVN$VVHVVPHQWIRU
1XFOHDU3RZHU3ODQW$SSOLFDWLRQV$60($165$6D
5HSRUW37136$7DVNV 3ODQW3DUWLWLRQLQJDQG,JQLWLRQ)UHTXHQFLHV
(OHFWULF3RZHU5HVHDUFK,QVWLWXWH (35, DQG861XFOHDU5HJXODWRU\&RPPLVVLRQ2IILFHRI
1XFOHDU5HJXODWRU\5HVHDUFK 5(6 185(*1XFOHDU3RZHU3ODQW)LUH,JQLWLRQ
)UHTXHQF\DQG1RQ6XSSUHVVLRQ3UREDELOLW\(VWLPDWLRQ8VLQJWKH8SGDWHG)LUH(YHQWV
'DWDEDVH8QLWHG6WDWHV)LUH(YHQW([SHULHQFH7KURXJK(OHFWULF3RZHU5HVHDUFK
,QVWLWXWHDQG861XFOHDU5HJXODWRU\&RPPLVVLRQ2IILFHRI1XFOHDU5HJXODWRU\5HVHDUFK
5(6 3DOR$OWR&$:DVKLQJWRQ'&
(35,15&5(65HILQLQJ$QG&KDUDFWHUL]LQJ+HDW5HOHDVH5DWHV)URP(OHFWULFDO(QFORVXUHV
'XULQJ)LUH 5$&+(//(),5( 9ROXPH3HDN+HDW5HOHDVH5DWHVDQG(IIHFWRI2EVWUXFWHG
3OXPH185(*(35,$SULO
-RLQW$VVHVVPHQWRI&DEOH'DPDJHDQG4XDQWLILFDWLRQRI(IIHFWVIURP)LUH -$&48(),5(
)LQDO5HSRUW 185(*&59ROXPH([SHUW(OLFLWDWLRQ([HUFLVHIRU1XFOHDU3RZHU3ODQW
)LUH,QGXFHG(OHFWULFDO&LUFXLW)DLOXUH 0D\
(35,15&5(6)LUH+XPDQUHOLDELOLW\$QDO\VLV*XLGHOLQHV+/-4XDOLWDWLYH$QDO\VLVIRU0DLQ
&RQWURO5RRP$EDQGRQPHQW6FHQDULRV6XSSOHPHQW 185(* -DQXDU\
5HSRUW7XUNH\3RLQW8QLWVDQG+RW*DV/D\HUDQG0XOWL&RPSDUWPHQW
$QDO\VLV
785.(<32,1781,76$1'),5(352%$%,/,67,&5,6.$66(660(17),5(
6&(1$5,25(3257185(*&57$6.6$1'5HSRUW1R+
5HY-XQH
+DQGERRNRI+XPDQ5HOLDELOLW\$QDO\VLVZLWK(PSKDVLVRQ1XFOHDU3RZHU3ODQW$SSOLFDWLRQV
185(*&5'DWHG$XJXVW
3DJH&_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
$SSHQGL['),5(02'(/,1*:25.%22.$3352$&+
7KHXVHRIDJHQHULF=2,KDVDKRWJDVOD\HUOLPLWDWLRQDVGHVFULEHGLQWKH*HQHULF)LUH0RGHOLQJ7UHDWPHQWV>@
LQZKLFKWKH=2,LVLQFUHDVHGGXHWRDGGLWLRQDOKHDWIOX[LQFXUUHGIURPWKHKRWJDVWHPSHUDWXUH7KH371)LUH
35$LPSOHPHQWHGWKHLQFUHDVHG=2,E\DSSO\LQJWKHIXOOURRPGDPDJHWDUJHWVHW7KH371+RW*DV/D\HUDQG
0XOWL&RPSDUWPHQW$QDO\VLV>@HYDOXDWHGWKHSUREDELOLW\RIHDFKILUHVFHQDULRFDXVLQJDKRWJDVOD\HUZLWKLQDQ
HQFORVHGYROXPH&RQYHUVHO\ULVNVLJQLILFDQWVFHQDULRVUHTXLUHUHILQHPHQWLQRUGHUWRHYDOXDWHWKHSUREDELOLW\RI
DQLJQLWLRQVRXUFHKDYLQJDUHGXFHG=2,
7KHPHWKRGRORJ\IRUHYDOXDWLQJWKHKRWJDVOD\HULPSDFWDQGWKHDVVRFLDWHGFDOFXODWLRQRIQRQVXSSUHVVLRQ
FDSDELOLW\ZDVSHUIRUPHGE\WKH6'&7RROD0DWKFDGEDVHGFDOFXODWLRQWRRO
7KH)LUH0RGHOLQJ:RUNERRN )0: LVDQ([FHOEDVHGWRROXVHGWRFDOFXODWHWKHSUREDELOLW\RIWDUJHWGDPDJH
DQGGHYHORSV163V7KH)0:LQFRUSRUDWHVFUHGLWIRULQWHUUXSWLEOHILUHVXVLQJWKH185(*DQDO\VLV
DSSURDFK7KH)0:ZDVXVHGLQWKH371VFHQDULRGHYHORSPHQWWRDQDO\]HDQGPRGHO163VIRUILUHVFHQDULRV
ZKLOHLQFRUSRUDWLQJWKH185(*DSSURDFK
)LJXUH'SURYLGHVDQLOOXVWUDWLRQRIWKHFDOFXODWLRQGHVFULEHGLQWKHIROORZLQJVHFWLRQVXVHGLQWKH)0:7KH
WZRPDLQLWHUDWLRQVDUHPD[LPXPVLPXODWLRQKHDWUHOHDVHUDWH QRWHGE\YDULDEOHM DQGWLPH QRWHGE\YDULDEOH
L $WLPHPDUFKLQJVLPXODWLRQLVSHUIRUPHGIRUHDFKSRVWXODWHGILUHVL]H NQRZQDVDELQ (DFKVLPXODWLRQ\LHOGV
DWLPHWRWDUJHWGDPDJH LHFULWLFDOWLPH 7KHVHFULWLFDOWLPHVDUHXWLOL]HGE\WKHQRQVXSSUHVVLRQDQDO\VLV
)LQDOO\DSUREDELOLW\RIWDUJHWGDPDJHLVFDOFXODWHG7KHSUREDELOLW\DVVRFLDWHGZLWKHDFKELQLVWKHQVXPPHG
SURGXFLQJDWRWDOSUREDELOLW\RIWDUJHWGDPDJH
3DJH'_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
)LJXUH'&RQFHSWXDO'LDJUDPRIWKH)LUH0RGHOLQJ:RUNERRN&DOFXODWLRQ
5HIHUWRWKH)LUH0RGHOLQJ:RUNERRN0HWKRGRORJ\7HFKQLFDO3URFHGXUHVHH$WWDFKPHQWIRUPRUHGHWDLOVRQ
LQSXWVIRU)0:DQGFDOFXODWLRQVIRUSULPDU\LJQLWLRQVRXUFHVVHFRQGDU\FRPEXVWLEOHVHQFORVXUHDPELHQW
WHPSHUDWXUHWDUJHWGDPDJHSUREDELOLW\DQGVFHQDULRYDOLGDWLRQ
' 371)0:,03/(0(17$7,21
7ZR)0:GDWDEDVHVDQGFRUUHVSRQGLQJVSUHDGVKHHWVDUHXVHGRQHIRUWKH0XOWL&RPSDUWPHQW$QDO\VLV
0&$ VFHQDULRVDQGRQHIRUDOORWKHUVFHQDULRV7KHGDWDEDVHVPDQDJHWKHLQSXWDQGRXWSXWIURPWKH
VSUHDGVKHHWVWKDWSHUIRUPWKHVFHQDULR163FDOFXODWLRQV7KHVH)0:GDWDEDVHVVSUHDGVKHHWVDUHSURYLGHGLQ
$WWDFKPHQW
3DJH'_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
7KH)0:LQFRUSRUDWHVWKHKHDWUHOHDVHUDWHGLVWULEXWLRQVIURP185(*>@WKHQRQVXSSUHVVLRQ
SUREDELOLW\YDOXHVIURP185(*>@DQGWKHLQWHUUXSWLEOHILUHDSSURDFKIURP185(*>@
$WWDFKPHQWLQFOXGHVWKHVSUHDGVKHHWV RQHIRU0&$DQGRQHIRULQGLYLGXDOLJQLWLRQVRXUFHV WKDWVHSDUDWHO\
FDOFXODWHWKHSUREDELOLWLHVIRUWKH+*/VFHQDULRV7KH+*/SRUWLRQVRIHDFKLJQLWLRQVRXUFHDQGWUDQVLHQWILUH
VFHQDULRLQDILUH]RQHDUHVXPPHGLQWRRQH+*/VFHQDULRIRUWKHILUH]RQH
$VXPPDU\RIWKHUHVXOWLQJ0&$VFHQDULR163VLVSURYLGHGLQ7DEOH7DEOHSURYLGHVWKHILUH]RQHKRW
JDVOD\HU163V
' $33(1',;'5()(5(1&(6
5HSRUW7DVN&RPSRQHQWDQG&DEOH6HOHFWLRQ5HSRUW5HY
5HSRUW37136$7DVNV 3ODQW3DUWLWLRQLQJDQG,JQLWLRQ)UHTXHQFLHV5HY
*HQHULF)LUH0RGHOLQJ7UHDWPHQWV+XJKHV$VVRFLDWHV3URMHFW1XPEHU63+5HYLVLRQ
-DQXDU\
(35,15&5(6)LUH35$0HWKRGRORJ\IRU1XFOHDU3RZHU)DFLOLWLHV9ROXPH'HWDLOHG
0HWKRGRORJ\(OHFWULF3RZHU5HVHDUFK,QVWLWXWH (35, 3DOR$OWR&$DQG861XFOHDU
5HJXODWRU\&RPPLVVLRQ2IILFHRI1XFOHDU5HJXODWRU\5HVHDUFK 5(6 5RFNYLOOH0'
(35,75DQG185(*&5
+XJKHV$VVRFLDWHV5HSRUWV5HYIRUWKH8QLWDQG8QLW&RQWURO5RRP
$EDQGRQPHQW7LPHVDWWKH7XUNH\3RLQW3ODQW
)LUH(YHQWV'DWDEDVHDQG*HQHULF,JQLWLRQ)UHTXHQF\0RGHOIRU861XFOHDU3RZHU3ODQWV
(35,3DOR$OWR&$
5HSRUW7XUNH\3RLQW8QLWV )LUH3UREDELOLVWLF5LVN$VVHVVPHQW+RW*DV
/D\HUDQG0XOWL&RPSDUWPHQW$QDO\VLV5HY
(35,15&5(65HILQLQJ$QG&KDUDFWHUL]LQJ+HDW5HOHDVH5DWHV)URP(OHFWULFDO(QFORVXUHV
'XULQJ)LUH 5$&+(//(),5( 9ROXPH3HDN+HDW5HOHDVH5DWHVDQG(IIHFWRI2EVWUXFWHG
3OXPH185(*(35,$SULO
1XFOHDU3RZHU3ODQW)LUH,JQLWLRQ)UHTXHQF\DQG1RQ6XSSUHVVLRQ3UREDELOLW\(VWLPDWLRQ8VLQJ
WKH8SGDWHG)LUH(YHQWV'DWDEDVH8QLWHG6WDWHV)LUH(YHQW([SHULHQFH7KURXJK185(*
(35,-DQXDU\
185(*0HWKRGRORJ\IRU0RGHOLQJ)LUH*URZWKDQG6XSSUHVVLRQ5HVSRQVHIRU(OHFWULFDO
&DELQHW)LUHVLQ1XFOHDU3RZHU3ODQWV(35,3DOR$OWR&$DQGWKH861XFOHDU5HJXODWRU\
&RPPLVVLRQ2IILFHRI1XFOHDU5HJXODWRU\5HVHDUFK 5(6 :DVKLQJWRQ'&
185(*
3DJH'_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
$SSHQGL[(163&DOFV&RPELQLQJ185(*DQG185(*
7KLVDSSHQGL[GHVFULEHVWKHPHWKRGRORJ\DQGFDOFXODWLRQVGHYHORSHGWRGHWHUPLQHWKHQRQVXSSUHVVLRQ
SUREDELOLW\RIVHOHFWHGVFHQDULRVDW7XUNH\3RLQW1XFOHDU3ODQWZKHQFRPELQLQJWKHPHWKRGVSUHVHQWHGLQ
185(*>@IRULQWHUUXSWLEOHILUHVDQGLQ185(*>@IRULQFLSLHQWGHWHFWLRQ7KHFRPELQHG
PHWKRGRORJLHVDUHXVHGIRUGHWHUPLQLQJQRQVXSSUHVVLRQSUREDELOLWLHVIRUWKHIROORZLQJILUHVFHQDULRV
&DEOH6SUHDGLQJ5RRPILUHVFHQDULRZLWKWKHIROORZLQJFKDUDFWHULVWLFV
,JQLWLRQ6RXUFH/DUJH(QFORVXUH *URXSDD FORVHGGHIDXOWIXHOORDGLQJ73FDEOH
,QFLSLHQWGHWHFWLRQV\VWHP,QFDELQHW
5HGXQGDQW6PRNH'HWHFWLRQ,RQL]DWLRQGHWHFWLRQ
7LPHWRGHOD\HGGHWHFWLRQPLQ
$XWRPDWLF6XSSUHVVLRQ+DORQ6\VWHP
2FFXSDQF\9HU\/RZ 1RWFUHGLWHGLQDGMDFHQW]RQHV
0DLQWHQDQFH9HU\/RZ
( 6800$5<185(*(9(1775((
185(*GHVFULEHVDGHWHFWLRQ+/-VXSSUHVVLRQHYHQWWUHHWKDWDOORZVIRUFUHGLWLQJHDUO\GHWHFWLRQFDSDELOLWLHV
DQGSHUVRQQHOVXSSUHVVLRQFDSDELOLWLHV5HFDOOWKDWWKHPRGHOVSUHVHQWHG185(*&5>@RU6XSSOHPHQW
WR185(*&5>@RQO\FUHGLWSURPSWVXSSUHVVLRQIRUILUHVLQWKH0&5RUIRUILUHVFHQDULRVDVVRFLDWHG
ZLWKKRWZRUNDFWLYLWLHV7KHHYHQWWUHHLQFOXGHGLQ185(*LVDPRGLILFDWLRQRIWKHDERYHPRGHOVLQWHQGHG
WRFDSWXUHWKHSRWHQWLDOIRUSODQWSHUVRQQHOVXSSUHVVLRQGXULQJWKHHDUO\VWDJHVRIDILUH
7KHPHWKRGRORJ\GHVFULEHGLQ185(*FUHGLWVHDUO\LQWHUYHQWLRQDQGVXSSUHVVLRQE\SODQWSHUVRQQHOE\
VSOLWWLQJWKHHYHQWWUHHLQ185(*&5 IRUVFHQDULRVZLWKRXWLQFLSLHQWGHWHFWLRQ LQWRWZRLGHQWLFDOEUDQFK
JURXSVRQHIRUFDSWXULQJWKHQRQVXSSUHVVLRQSUREDELOLW\ 163 IRULQWHUUXSWLEOHILUHV ,) DQGRQHIRUJURZLQJ
ILUHV *) 7KHUHYLVHGHYHQWWUHHIRUPDWLVSUHVHQWHGLQ)LJXUH(
3DJH(_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
)LJXUH(+/-,QWHUUXSWLEOHDQG*URZLQJ)LUH'HWHFWLRQDQG6XSSUHVVLRQ(YHQW7UHH185(*
7KHUHYLVHGLQWHUUXSWLEOHDQGJURZLQJVHTXHQFHV $/ DUHFRQFHSWXDOO\VLPLODUWRVHTXHQFHV$1LQ
185(*&5:LWKUHVSHFWWRFDOFXODWLQJWKH163IRUDVFHQDULRUHTXLUHGFKDQJHVDUHDVIROORZV
7KHSUREDELOLW\RIGHWHFWLRQLVQRORQJHUVSOLWEHWZHHQEUDQFKHVUHSUHVHQWLQJWKHIDLOXUHRISURPSWDQG
DXWRPDWLF'HWHFWLRQLVQRZVSOLWEHWZHHQWKHILUVWGHWHFWLRQRSSRUWXQLW\ ]HURWLPHRIGHWHFWLRQ DQGWKH
VHFRQGGHWHFWLRQRSSRUWXQLW\ PRGHOHGWLPHRIGHWHFWLRQ
$XQLTXHVHTXHQFHVLQJOLQJRXWSURPSWVXSSUHVVLRQLVQRORQJHULQFOXGHG7KHGHYHORSPHQWRIWKH
LQWHUUXSWLEOHDQGJURZLQJVXSSUHVVLRQUDWHVPDNHVXVHRI]HURGHWHFWLRQDQGVKRUWVXSSUHVVLRQWLPHV
7KHVHTXHQFHRIHYHQWVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKGHOD\HGGHWHFWLRQLVUHWDLQHGLQWKLVPHWKRGRORJ\,Q185(*&5
WKHVHVHTXHQFHVZHUHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKGHWHFWLRQE\QRQDXWRPDWLFPHDQVVXFKDVDURYLQJILUH
ZDWFK
,WLVDVVXPHGWKDWDILUHZLOODOZD\VEHGHWHFWHG
7KHWLPHWRGHWHFWLRQLVDVVXPHGWREH]HURIRUWKHIROORZLQJ
3DJH(_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
'HWHFWLRQE\DQRQILUHWURXEOHDODUPLQWKH0&5SODQWSHUVRQQHODQGDXWRPDWLFVPRNHGHWHFWLRQIRU
DQLQWHUUXSWLEOHILUH
'HWHFWLRQE\DQRQILUHWURXEOHDODUPLQWKH0&5DQGSODQWSHUVRQQHOIRUDJURZLQJILUH
7KHWLPHWRDXWRPDWLFGHWHFWLRQIRUDJURZLQJILUHPD\EHPRGHOHGXVLQJWKH185(*&5JURZWK
SURILOH
6SHFLDOFRQVLGHUDWLRQRIVXFFHVVIXODXWRPDWLFVXSSUHVVLRQVKRXOGEHWDNHQZKHQLQFOXGHGLQWKH
LQWHUUXSWLEOHILUHSDWK7KHLQWHUUXSWLEOHILUHLQWURGXFHVWKHFRQFHSWRIDILUHWKDWLVQRWH[SHFWHGWRJURZWRD
SRLQWWKDWZRXOGEHFDSDEOHRIDFWLYDWLQJDQDXWRPDWLFVXSSUHVVLRQV\VWHP
6LPLODUWRDJURZLQJILUHWKHLQWHUUXSWLEOHILUH+55SURILOHVKRXOGEHXVHGZKHQHVWLPDWLQJWKHDFWLYDWLRQ
WLPHRIDQDXWRPDWLFKHDWGHWHFWLRQRUWKHUPDOO\DFWLYDWHGDXWRPDWLFVXSSUHVVLRQV\VWHPIRUDQLQWHUUXSWLEOH
ILUH
:KHQWKH163IRUERWKLQWHUUXSWLEOHDQGJURZLQJILUHSDWKVLVFDOFXODWHGWKHVSOLWIUDFWLRQLVDSSOLHG DQGWKH
WZRSUREDELOLWLHVDUHVXPPHGWRGHWHUPLQHWKHVFHQDULR3QV
(DUO\GHWHFWLRQDQGVXSSUHVVLRQE\SODQWSHUVRQQHOLVLQFOXGHGLQWKHGHWHFWLRQVXSSUHVVLRQHYHQWWUHHPRGHO
XVLQJWKHIROORZLQJSDUDPHWHUVZKLFKDUHGHVFULEHGLQGHWDLOLQWKHIROORZLQJVHFWLRQV
,QWHUUXSWLEOHILUHJURZLQJILUHVSOLWIUDFWLRQ
(OHFWULFDOFDELQHW+55WLPLQJSURILOHV
$XWRPDWLF VPRNH GHWHFWLRQLQHIIHFWLYHQHVV
0&5LQGLFDWLRQ
0&5RSHUDWRUUHVSRQVH
3ODQWSHUVRQQHOUHVSRQVH
3ODQWSHUVRQQHOSUHVHQFH
7KHDSSURDFKLQ185(*LQGLFDWHVWKDWIRUVFHQDULRVZLWKLQFLSLHQWGHWHFWLRQWKHJXLGDQFHSURYLGHGLQ
185(*VKRXOGEHIROORZHG
( 6800$5<2)185(*(9(1775((
185(*GHYHORSHGDQHYHQWWUHHWRHVWLPDWHWKHQRQVXSSUHVVLRQSUREDELOLW\IRUILUHVFHQDULRVZKHUH9HU\
(DUO\:DUQLQJ)LUH'HWHFWLRQ 9(:)' LVXVHG7KHHYHQWWUHH )LJXUH185(*UHSURGXFHGLQ)LJXUH
(EHORZ HVWLPDWHVWKHQRQVXSSUHVVLRQSUREDELOLW\IRULQFDELQHWVPRNHGHWHFWLRQDSSOLFDWLRQV
3DJH(_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
)LJXUH(+/-%DVLF(YHQW7UHHIRU,Q&DELQHW6PRNH'HWHFWLRQ1RQ6XSSUHVVLRQ3UREDELOLW\(VWLPDWLRQ
)LJXUHLQ185(*
7KHHYHQWWUHHKHDGLQJVLQFOXGHHVWLPDWLRQRIILUHSKHQRPHQDGHWHFWRUSHUIRUPDQFHKXPDQSHUIRUPDQFH
PHDVXUHVDQGILUHVXSSUHVVLRQDVIROORZV
7KHILUVWHYHQW³'HWHFWRU6\VWHP$YDLODELOLW\5HOLDELOLW\'TXDQWLILHVWKHV\VWHPVRSHUDWLRQDOSHUIRUPDQFH
7KHIDLOXUHEUDQFK GRZQ UHSUHVHQWVWKHSUREDELOLW\WKDWDGHWHFWLRQV\VWHPZLOOEHXQDEOHWRSHUIRUPLWV
IXQFWLRQEHFDXVHRIV\VWHPRXWDJHRUKDUGZDUHIDLOXUH
7KHQH[WHYHQW³)UDFWLRQVWKDWKDYHDQLQFLSLHQWSKDVH' VHSDUDWHVHYHQWVWKDWH[KLELWUDSLGO\GHYHORSLQJ
ILUHVIURPWKRVHWKDWH[KLELWORQJHULQFLSLHQWVWDJHV
7KHQH[WEUDQFK³(IIHFWLYHQHVV'HYDOXDWHVWKHV\VWHP¶VDELOLW\WRGHWHFWORZHQHUJ\ SUHIODPLQJ ILUHVIRUD
VSHFLILFLQVWDOOHGDSSOLFDWLRQ7KHVXFFHVVEUDQFK UHSUHVHQWVDGHWHFWLRQV\VWHP¶VSUREDELOLW\RI
HIIHFWLYHO\GHWHFWLQJDORZHQHUJ\ILUHLQLWVLQFLSLHQWVWDJH,QWKLVFDVHUHSUHVHQWVWKHVPRNHGHWHFWLRQ
V\VWHP¶VLQHIIHFWLYHQHVVLQGHWHFWLQJSUHIODPLQJ LQFLSLHQW SKDVHFRQGLWLRQV
7KHKXPDQHUURUSUREDELOLW\IRUWKH0&5RSHUDWRUUHVSRQVHLVUHSUHVHQWHGE\6XFFHVVRIWKH³0&5
5HVSRQVH'HYHQW UHSUHVHQWVWKDWWKHPDLQFRQWUROURRP 0&5 RSHUDWLQJFUHZKDVDFNQRZOHGJHGD
VPRNHGHWHFWRUDOHUWRUDODUPDQGKDVGLUHFWHGILUVWOHYHOILHOGUHVSRQVHWRWKHDOHUWLQJDODUPLQJILUHORFDWLRQ
6XFFHVVLQWKH³)LUVW/HYHO)LHOG5HVSRQVH 7HFKQLFLDQ)LHOG2SHUDWRU )LUH:DWFK3RVWHG' UHSUHVHQWV
WKHSUREDELOLW\WKDWWKHILHOGUHVSRQVHSODQWSHUVRQQHOKDYHDUULYHGDWWKHVPRNHGHWHFWRUDOHUWDODUP
ORFDWLRQ,QWKLVFDVHUHSUHVHQWVKHKXPDQHUURUSUREDELOLW\IRUWKHILUVWOHYHOUHVSRQVHE\WKHILHOGRSHUDWRU
RUWHFKQLFLDQ
3DJH(_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
6XFFHVVLQWKHHQKDQFHGVXSSUHVVLRQHYHQW IRULQFDELQHWGHWHFWLRQ UHSUHVHQWVWKHSUREDELOLW\WKDW
DQ\SRWHQWLDOILUHLVVXSSUHVVHGEHIRUHILUHGDPDJHWRWDUJHWVRIFRQFHUQ
7KHODVWHYHQW³&RQYHQWLRQDO'HWHFWLRQ6XSSUHVVLRQ'HVWLPDWHVWKHSUREDELOLW\RIVXFFHVVIXOO\VXSSUHVVLQJD
ILUHJLYHQDIDLOXUHRIRQHRIWKHHDUOLHUHYHQWV DQG 7RHVWLPDWHWKHVXFFHVVRIWKHVH
EUDQFKHVLQ185(*WKHVXSSUHVVLRQGHWHFWLRQHYHQWWUHHIURP185(*&5VKRXOGEHVROYHGIRU
WKHVFHQDULRZKHQUHGXQGDQWGHWHFWLRQDQGRUDXWRPDWLFVXSSUHVVLRQV\VWHPVDUHDYDLODEOHLQWKHDUHDDV
IROORZV
³'UHSUHVHQWVVHTXHQFHV)+/-1IURPWKHGHWHFWLRQVXSSUHVVLRQHYHQWWUHHLQ185(*&57KDW
LVJLYHQDIDLOXUHRIWKH9(:)'V\VWHPRU0&5WRUHVSRQGWKHUHGXQGDQWGHWHFWLRQDQGRUDXWRPDWLF
VXSSUHVVLRQFDSDELOLW\VWLOOH[LVWV
³'UHSUHVHQWVVHTXHQFHV)+/-,IURPWKHGHWHFWLRQVXSSUHVVLRQHYHQWWUHHLQ185(*&57KDWLV
JLYHQDIDLOXUHRIWKH9(:)'V\VWHPWRSURYLGHVXIILFLHQWDGYDQFHZDUQLQJWKH9(:)'V\VWHPZLOOVWLOO
SURYLGHSURPSWGHWHFWLRQIXQFWLRQV7LPHWRGHWHFWLRQLVDVVXPHGWREHDWLJQLWLRQ
³'UHSUHVHQWVWKHIDLOXUHRIDQLQGHSHQGHQWDXWRPDWLFILUHVXSSUHVVLRQV\VWHP LQFOXGLQJDXWRPDWLF
GHWHFWLRQV\VWHPLIWKHDXWRPDWLFVXSSUHVVLRQV\VWHPLVGHSHQGHQWRQWKHDXWRPDWLFGHWHFWLRQV\VWHP
WRVXSSUHVVWKHILUHSULRUWRILUHGDPDJHZKHQWKHHQKDQFHGVXSSUHVVLRQFDSDELOLWLHVIDLO,IDQ
LQGHSHQGHQWDXWRPDWLFVXSSUHVVLRQV\VWHPLVQRWSUHVHQWLQWKHILUHVFHQDULRWKHQ³'LVDVVXPHG
)RUDOORWKHUFDVHVWKHUHOLDELOLW\RIWKHLQGHSHQGHQWDXWRPDWLFVXSSUHVVLRQV\VWHP DQGDXWRPDWLF
GHWHFWLRQV\VWHPLIDSSOLFDEOH LVPRGHOHGFRQVLVWHQWZLWK185(*&5LQFOXGLQJDQHYDOXDWLRQRI
DQ\WLPLQJFRQVLGHUDWLRQV
( &RPELQLQJ18*(*ZLWK185(*
$VGHVFULEHGLQ6HFWLRQ(WKHSDUDPHWHUVDQGFDSWXUHWKHLPSDFWRIDFRQYHQWLRQDO
GHWHFWLRQVXSSUHVVLRQV\VWHPZLWKLQWKH185(*LQFLSLHQWGHWHFWLRQXVLQJWKHGHWHFWLRQVXSSUHVVLRQHYHQW
WUHHSUHVHQWHGLQ$SSHQGL[3RI185(*&5:LWKWKHSXEOLFDWLRQRI185(*WKHUHYLVHGIUDPHZRUN
IRUWKHFDOFXODWLRQRIWKHQRQVXSSUHVVLRQSUREDELOLW\RIDQHOHFWULFDOFDELQHWILUHPD\EHXVHGWRGHWHUPLQHWKH
YDOXHVIRUSDUDPHWHUVDQG
( 0HWKRGRORJ\'LIIHUHQFHV
7KHUHDUHDQXPEHURISDUDPHWHUVGHVFULEHGLQ185(*DQG185(*WKDWDSSHDUWRFDSWXUHVLPLODU
HOHPHQWV7KLVVHFWLRQUHYLHZVWKHVHHOHPHQWVDQGGHVFULEHVWKHDSSURSULDWHXVHRIHDFKZKHQWKHPHWKRGV
DUHFRPELQHG
185(*LQWURGXFHGWKHFRQFHSWVRI³LQWHUUXSWLEOH'DQG³JURZLQJ'ILUHV$Q³LQWHUUXSWLEOH'ILUHLVRQH
ZLWKDUHODWLYHO\VORZJURZWKVWDJHWKDWFRXOGEH GHWHFWHGDQG FRQWUROOHGEHIRUHJURZWKDQG
SURSDJDWLRQRXWVLGHWKHLJQLWLRQVRXUFH$³JURZLQJ'ILUHUHIHUVWRIDVWHUJURZLQJILUHVWKDWPD\QRWEH
FRQWUROOHGEHIRUHSURSDJDWLQJRXWVLGHWKHLJQLWLRQVRXUFH185(*UHFRPPHQGHGDVSOLWIUDFWLRQ
FKDUDFWHUL]LQJWKHSHUFHQWDJHRIHOHFWULFDOFDELQHWILUHVWKDWPD\SUHVHQW³LQWHUUXSWLEOH'FRQGLWLRQVYHUVXV
JURZLQJFRQGLWLRQV%RWKWKH³LQWHUUXSWLEOH'DQG³JURZLQJ'IUDFWLRQRIILUHVPD\H[KLELWDQLQFLSLHQW
SKDVH7KDWLVWKHFRQFHSWRIDQ³LQWHUUXSWLEOH'ILUHDVGHILQHGLQ185(*LVLQGHSHQGHQWRIDQ
LJQLWLRQVRXUFHWKDWPD\SUHVHQWDQLQFLSLHQWSKDVH7KHUHIRUHERWKWKHIUDFWLRQRIHOHFWULFDOFDELQHW
ILUHVWKDWGRQRWKDYHDQLQFLSLHQWSKDVHGHWHFWDEOHE\DQ9(:)'6 DQGWKHIUDFWLRQRIILUHVKDYHDQ
3DJH(_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
LQFLSLHQWSKDVHGHWHFWDEOHE\DQ9(:)'6 VKRXOGEHPRGHOHGZLWKWKHLQWHUUXSWLEOHDQGJURZLQJ
ILUHVSOLWIUDFWLRQVFRQVLVWHQWZLWKWKHJXLGDQFHLQ185(*
7KHLQFLSLHQWV\VWHPLQHIIHFWLYHQHVVLQWKH185(*PHWKRGRORJ\DQGWKHDXWRPDWLFVPRNH
GHWHFWLRQLQHIIHFWLYHQHVVSDUDPHWHULQWKH185(*PHWKRGRORJ\DUHLQGHSHQGHQW7KHSDUDPHWHU
LQWKH185(*LVDSSOLFDEOHWRLQFLSLHQWGHWHFWLRQV\VWHPV7KHSDUDPHWHUSUHVHQWHGLQ
185(*LVDSSOLFDEOHWRDXWRPDWLFVPRNHGHWHFWLRQIRUIODPLQJILUHV
D )RUVFHQDULRVZKHUHWKHUHGXQGDQWDQGLQGHSHQGHQWDXWRPDWLFVPRNHGHWHFWLRQV\VWHPLVORFDWHG
ZLWKLQWKHHOHFWULFDOFDELQHWWKHLQHIIHFWLYHQHVVWHUPLQWURGXFHGLQ185(*PD\EHVHWWR]HUR
$VGHVFULEHGLQ185(*WKLVSDUDPHWHUZDVLQWURGXFHGWRFDSWXUHWKHSUREDELOLW\RIDILUH
QRWEHLQJFDSDEOHRISURGXFLQJDGHWHFWLEOHVLJQDWXUH7KLVSDUDPHWHUZDVGHYHORSHGDVDIXQFWLRQ
RIPXOWLSOHSDUDPHWHUVLQFOXGLQJILUHVL]HDQGVHSDUDWLRQRIWKHVPRNHGHWHFWRUIURPWKHILUH,WPD\
EHDVVXPHGWKDWDGHWHFWRUORFDWHGZLWKLQWKHHQFORVHGVSDFHRIDQHOHFWULFDOFDELQHWZKLOHIODPLQJ
FRPEXVWLRQRFFXUVZLOOEHVXIILFLHQWWRDFWLYDWHWKDWGHWHFWRU
7KHVXFFHVVIXOPDLQFRQWUROURRPUHVSRQVHSDUDPHWHULQWKH185(*PHWKRGRORJ\LV
LQGHSHQGHQWRIWKHPDLQFRQWUROURRPRSHUDWRUUHVSRQVHLQWKH185(*PHWKRGRORJ\,Q185(*
WKLVSDUDPHWHUFDSWXUHVWKHIDLOXUHRID0&5RSHUDWRUWRUHVSRQGWRDQLQFLSLHQWILUHDODUP,Q
185(*WKLVSDUDPHWHUFDSWXUHVWKHIDLOXUHRID0&5RSHUDWRUWRUHVSRQGWRDQRQILUHWURXEOH
DODUP
&UHGLWIRUSHUVRQQHOGHWHFWLRQDVGHVFULEHGLQ185(*LVQRWQHJDWLYHO\LPSDFWHGLQWKHHYHQWRID
IDLOXUHRID9(:)'63HUVRQQHOGHWHFWLRQLQ185(*LVGHYHORSHGDURXQGWKHOLNHOLKRRGRI
SHUVRQQHOEHLQJSUHVHQWLQDQDUHDRIDILUHDQGLVQRWGHSHQGHQWRQWKHVXFFHVVRIDQLQFLSLHQW
GHWHFWLRQV\VWHP
( )DLOXUHRIWKH9(:)'65HGXQGDQW'HWHFWLRQ6XSSUHVVLRQ&DSDELOLW\
7KLVWHUPFDSWXUHVWKHHYHQWZKHUHWKHLQFLSLHQWGHWHFWLRQV\VWHPKDVIDLOHGRUWKH0&5KDVIDLOHGWRUHFRJQL]H
WKHDOHUW7KHGHWHFWLRQVXSSUHVVLRQHYHQWWUHHVSUHVHQWHGLQWKH185(*PHWKRGFDQEHVXEVWLWXWHG
GLUHFWO\LQWKH185(*PHWKRGWRGHWHUPLQHWKHYDOXHIRUZLWKQRPRGLILFDWLRQQHFHVVDU\
,Q185(*WKHGHYHORSPHQWRIVWDWHVWKDWWKHFDOFXODWLRQUHSUHVHQWVVHTXHQFHV)+/-1LQWKH
185(*&5$SSHQGL[3WUHH:LWKWKHLQWURGXFWLRQRISHUVRQQHOGHWHFWLRQLQ185(*WKH
RSSRUWXQLW\IRUZKDWLVGHVLJQDWHGµSURPSW¶GHWHFWLRQ VHTXHQFHV$+/-(LQ$SSHQGL[3RI185(*&5 LV
QRZFDSWXUHGLQWKHILUVWGHWHFWLRQVWHSRIWKH185(*HYHQWWUHH
( 3URPSW$OHUWE\9(:)'65HGXQGDQW'HWHFWLRQ6XSSUHVVLRQ&DSDELOLW\
7KHWHUPFDSWXUHVWKHFDVHZKHUHWKH9(:)'6KDVQRWSURYLGHGDGYDQFHGZDUQLQJ+/-GHWHFWLRQZLWKLQWKH
LQFLSLHQWSKDVH+/-EXWVWLOOSURYLGHVDQDOHUWWKDWDOORZVIRUFUHGLWLQJµSURPSW¶GHWHFWLRQ:LWKWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRI
185(*IRUWKLVFDVHWKHSUREDELOLW\RIILUVWGHWHFWLRQVKRXOGEHPRGHOHGDVVXFFHVVIXOIRUERWKWKH
LQWHUUXSWLEOHDQGJURZLQJILUHV7KHUHIRUHLWLVQRWQHFHVVDU\WRDSSO\WKHDXWRPDWLFVPRNHGHWHFWLRQ
LQHIIHFWLYHQHVVSDUDPHWHUDXWRPDWLFVPRNHGHWHFWLRQXQDYDLODELOLW\RUXQUHOLDELOLW\0&5LQGLFDWLRQ0&5
RSHUDWRUUHVSRQVHRUWKHSUREDELOLW\WKDWSHUVRQQHODUHSUHVHQW(VVHQWLDOO\WKHSURPSWDOHUWE\WKH9(:)'6
FDQEHXQGHUVWRRGWRPHDQWKHSHUVRQQHOZLOOEHLQWKHDUHDRIWKHILUHDQGWKHSUREDELOLW\RISHUVRQQHOSUHVHQW
LV
3DJH(_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
( )DLOXUHRIDQ,QGHSHQGHQW6XSSUHVVLRQ6\VWHP
7KHUHLVQRFKDQJHLQWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRIWKHSDUDPHWHUWKDWFDSWXUHVWKHIDLOXUHRIDQLQGHSHQGHQWDXWRPDWLF
VXSSUHVVLRQV\VWHPWRVXSSUHVVDILUHSULRUWRGDPDJHDVGHVFULEHGLQ185(*
( 7LPHWR7DUJHW'DPDJH
$VGHVFULEHGLQ6HFWLRQ(WKHHQKDQFHGVXSSUHVVLRQSUREDELOLW\ UHSUHVHQWVWKHSUREDELOLW\WKDWDQ\
SRWHQWLDOILUHLVQRWVXSSUHVVHGEHIRUHILUHGDPDJHWRWDUJHWVRIFRQFHUQ
7KH³'IDFWRUGLIIHUVEHWZHHQWKHWZRHYHQWWUHHVLQ185(*7KH³'IDFWRULVDSSOLFDEOHIRUWKHLQ
FDELQHWHYHQWWUHH VHH)LJXUH( DQGUHSUHVHQWVWKHSUREDELOLW\WKDWJLYHQVXFFHVVRIWKHWHFKQLFLDQILHOG
RSHUDWRUWRUHVSRQGWRWKH9(:)'³DOHUW'VXSSUHVVLRQKDVIDLOHGWROLPLWWKHILUHGDPDJHWRWKHHQFORVXUHRI
RULJLQ7KHILHOGRSHUDWRULQWKHDUHDRIWKHFDELQHWUHVSRQVLEOHIRUWKH9(:)'V\VWHPDOHUWIDLOVWRSURPSWO\
VXSSUHVVWKHILUHTXLFNO\HQRXJKWRSUHYHQWGDPDJHWR35$WDUJHWVRXWVLGHWKHFDELQHW7KH0&5FXUYHVKRXOG
EHXVHGIRUWKLVFDVH7KLVLVFRQVLGHUHGWREHUHDVRQDEOHUHSUHVHQWDWLRQJLYHQWKDWWKHILHOGRSHUDWRUDWUDLQHG
UHVSRQGHUZLOOEHQHDUWKHEDQNRIFDELQHWVZKHUHWKH9(:)'V\VWHPDOHUWZDVLQLWLDWHGDFWLYHO\VHDUFKLQJIRU
WKHVRXUFHORFDWLRQRIWKHDOHUW7KHSUREDELOLW\RIIDLOXUHWRH[WLQJXLVKWKHILUH RQFHLJQLWLRQKDVRFFXUUHGLV
FDOFXODWHGEDVHGRQWKHWLPHDYDLODEOHIRUPDQXDOVXSSUHVVLRQWKDWLQWKLVFDVHLVFRQVLGHUHGWKHWLPHWRWDUJHW
GDPDJH DVIROORZV
7KHWLPHWRWDUJHWGDPDJHIRUHDFKRIWKHSHUFHQWLOHVHYDOXDWHGZDVSURYLGHGE\WKH)LUH0RGHOLQJ:RUNERRN
6HH$SSHQGL['
( 185(*3DUDPHWHUV
7KLVVHFWLRQVXPPDUL]HVWKH185(*SDUDPHWHUVXVHGIRUWKHVFHQDULRVXQGHUDQDO\VLV
( &DEOH6SUHDGLQJ5RRP,Q&DELQHW'HWHFWLRQ
7DEOH(OLVWVWKH185(*SDUDPHWHUVXVHGIRUWKH&DEOH6SUHDGLQJ5RRPVFHQDULRVZLWKLQFDELQHW
9(:)'7KHVHSDUDPHWHUVDUHWKHLQSXWVYDOXHVWRWKHHYHQWWUHHPRGHOLQ)LJXUHRI185(*
7DEOH(+/-185(*3DUDPHWHUV &DEOH6SUHDGLQJ5RRP+/-,Q&DELQHW'HWHFWLRQ
3DUDPHWHU 9DOXH -XVWLILFDWLRQ
( 185(* 'HIDXOW9DOXH
( 185(* /RZ9ROWDJH&RQWURO&DELQHWV
( 185(* ,Q&DELQHW+/-1DWXUDODQG)RUFHG$&+$6'/6
( 185(* 'HIDXOW9DOXH
3DJH(_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
( 185(* ,Q&DELQHW+/-$6'9(:)'/LJKW6FDWWHULQJ /6
DQG9(:)'/LJKW6FDWWHULQJ6HQVLWLYH6SRW 66
&XUUHQW0&56XSSUHVVLRQ5DWHIURP185(*9
( 185(*3DUDPHWHUV
7KLVVHFWLRQVXPPDUL]HVWKH185(*SDUDPHWHUVXVHGIRUWKHVFHQDULRVXQGHUDQDO\VLV
( &DEOH6SUHDGLQJ5RRP,Q&DELQHW'HWHFWLRQ
7DEOH(WKURXJK7DEOH(OLVWWKH185(*SDUDPHWHUVXVHGIRUFDOFXODWLQJLQWKH&DEOH
6SUHDGLQJ5RRP7KHVHSDUDPHWHUVDUHWKHLQSXWVYDOXHVWRWKHHYHQWWUHHPRGHOLQ)LJXUHRI185(*
7DEOH(+/-&DOF8VLQJ185(* &DEOH6SUHDGLQJ5RRP+/-,Q&DELQHW'HWHFWLRQ
3DUDPHWHU 9DOXH -XVWLILFDWLRQ
7LPHWR7DUJHWGDPDJH PLQ 6SHFLILFYDOXH ,QSXWGDWDIRUHDFKSHUFHQWLOHIURP)LUH
IRUHDFK 0RGHOLQJ:RUNERRN
SHUFHQWLOH
7LPHWRDXWRPDWLFGHWHFWLRQ PLQ ,QSXWGDWD
7LPHWRDXWRPDWLFVXSSUHVVLRQ PLQ 7LPHWRVXSSUHVVLRQIRU+DORQV\VWHP
DVVXPHGPLQXWHDIWHUDXWRPDWLFGHWHFWLRQ
7LPHWRGHOD\HGGHWHFWLRQ PLQ ,QSXWGDWD
&UHGLWDXWRPDWLFGHWHFWLRQ 758( ,QSXWGDWD
&UHGLWDXWRPDWLFVXSSUHVVLRQ 758( ,QSXWGDWD
$XWRPDWLFGHWHFWLRQIDLOXUHSUREDELOLW\RUXQDYDLODELOLW\ $VVXPLQJGHWHFWLRQXQDYDLODELOLW\ DQG
XQUHOLDELOLW\ IRUVPRNHGHWHFWLRQ
V\VWHP
$XWRPDWLF RUPDQXDO VXSSUHVVLRQIDLOXUHSUREDELOLW\RU $VVXPLQJVXSSUHVVLRQXQDYDLODELOLW\
XQDYDLODELOLW\ DQGXQUHOLDELOLW\ IRUKDORQ
VXSSUHVVLRQV\VWHP
3ODQWSHUVRQQHODFWLYDWLQJPDQXDOIL[HGV\VWHP+(3 1$
&UHGLW0&5,QGLFDWLRQ 758()$/6( $VVXPHGQR0&5LQGLFDWLRQ
&UHGLW)L[HG0DQXDO6XSS )$/6( ,QSXWGDWD
7LPHWRWDUJHWGDPLQWHUUXSWLEOH PLQ 7LPHWR7DUJHW %DVHGRQ185(*
GDPDJH PLQ
PLQ
6PRNHGHWLQHIIHFWLYHQHVV %DVHGRQ185(*IRU(QFORVXUH
&ODVV)XQFWLRQ*URXSDD /DUJHFORVHG
GHIDXOWIXHOORDGLQJ DVLQSXWGDWD
3DJH(_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
7DEOH(+/-&DOF8VLQJ185(* &DEOH6SUHDGLQJ5RRP+/-,Q&DELQHW'HWHFWLRQ
3DUDPHWHU 9DOXH -XVWLILFDWLRQ
3UREDELOLW\RISHUVRQQHOQRWSUHVHQWLQURRP %DVHGRQ185(*IRUYHU\ORZ
RFFXSDQF\DQGPDLQWHQDQFHDVLQSXWGDWD
0DQXDOVXSSUHVVLRQSUREDELOLW\FRQVWDQWLQWHUUXSWLEOH %DVHGRQ185(*GHIDXOWYDOXH
0DQXDOVXSSUHVVLRQSUREDELOLW\FRQVWDQWJURZWK %DVHGRQ185(*GHIDXOWYDOXH
6SOLWIUDFWLRQ RILQWHUUXSWLEOHILUHV %DVHGRQ185(*GHIDXOWYDOXH
&UHGLWKHDWGHWHFWLRQIRULQWHUUXSWLEOH )$/6( ,QSXWGDWD
7LPH7R$XWR'HWHFWLRQ,) 7LPHWR %DVHGRQ185(*
DXWRPDWLF
GHWHFWLRQ PLQ
PLQ
7LPH7R$XWR6XSSUHVVLRQ,) 7LPHWR %DVHGRQ185(*
DXWRPDWLF
GHWHFWLRQ PLQ
PLQ
3DJH(_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
7DEOH(+/-&DOF8VLQJ185(* &DEOH6SUHDGLQJ5RRP+/-,Q&DELQHW'HWHFWLRQ
3DUDPHWHU 9DOXH -XVWLILFDWLRQ
7LPHWR7DUJHWGDPDJH PLQ 6SHFLILFYDOXHIRU )URP)0:
HDFKSHUFHQWLOH
7LPHWRDXWRPDWLFGHWHFWLRQ PLQ %DVHGRQ185(WLPHWRGHWHFWLRQ
IRUERWK,QWHUUXSWLEOHDQG*URZLQJ)LUHVLV
FRQVLGHUHGDWW
7LPHWRDXWRPDWLFVXSSUHVVLRQ PLQ 7LPHWRVXSSUHVVLRQIRU+DORQV\VWHP
DVVXPHGPLQXWHDIWHUDXWRPDWLF
GHWHFWLRQ
7LPHWRGHOD\HGGHWHFWLRQ PLQ ,QSXWGDWD
&UHGLWDXWRPDWLFGHWHFWLRQ 758( ,QSXWGDWD
&UHGLWDXWRPDWLFVXSSUHVVLRQ 758( ,QSXWGDWD
$XWRPDWLFGHWHFWLRQIDLOXUHSUREDELOLW\RUXQDYDLODELOLW\ $VVXPLQJGHWHFWLRQXQDYDLODELOLW\
DQGXQUHOLDELOLW\ IRUVPRNH
GHWHFWLRQV\VWHP$VLQWKLVFDVHWKH
LQFLSLHQWGHWHFWRUV\VWHPLVFRQVLGHUHGDV
SHUVRQQHODOZD\VSUHVHQWLQWKHURRP
WKLVYDOXHGRHVQRWDIIHFWWKH163FDOF
$XWRPDWLF RUPDQXDO VXSSUHVVLRQIDLOXUHSUREDELOLW\RU $VVXPLQJVXSSUHVVLRQXQDYDLODELOLW\
XQDYDLODELOLW\ DQGXQUHOLDELOLW\ IRUKDORQ
VXSSUHVVLRQV\VWHP
3ODQWSHUVRQQHODFWLYDWLQJPDQXDOIL[HGV\VWHP+(3 1$
&UHGLW0&5,QGLFDWLRQ )$/6( $VVXPHGQRFUHGLWIRU0&5LQGLFDWLRQ
&UHGLW)L[HG0DQXDO6XSS )$/6( ,QSXWGDWD
7LPHWRWDUJHWGDPLQWHUUXSWLEOH PLQ 7LPHWR7DUJHW %DVHGRQ185(*
GDPDJH PLQ
PLQ
6PRNHGHWLQHIIHFWLYHQHVV 6LQFHWKH9(:)'LVORFDWHGZLWKLQWKH
HOHFWULFDOFDELQHWDVVSHFLILHGLQ185(*
JLYHQDIDLOXUHRIWKH9(:)'
V\VWHPWRSURYLGHVXIILFLHQWDGYDQFH
ZDUQLQJWKH9(:)'V\VWHPZLOOVWLOO
SURYLGHSURPSWGHWHFWLRQIXQFWLRQV
3DJH(_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
7DEOH(+/-&DOF8VLQJ185(* &DEOH6SUHDGLQJ5RRP+/-,Q&DELQHW'HWHFWLRQ
3DUDPHWHU 9DOXH -XVWLILFDWLRQ
3UREDELOLW\RISHUVRQQHOQRWSUHVHQWLQURRP $VVSHFLILHGLQ185(*JLYHQD
IDLOXUHRIWKH9(:)'V\VWHPWRSURYLGH
VXIILFLHQWDGYDQFHZDUQLQJWKH9(:)'
V\VWHPZLOOVWLOOSURYLGHSURPSWGHWHFWLRQ
IXQFWLRQV7KHUHIRUHLQWKLVFDVHWKH
LQFLSLHQWGHWHFWRUZLWKLQWKHHOHFWULFDO
FDELQHWLVFRQVLGHUHGDVSHUVRQQHO
DOZD\VSUHVHQWLQWKHURRPIRU185(*
0DQXDOVXSSUHVVLRQSUREDELOLW\FRQVWDQWLQWHUUXSWLEOH %DVHGRQ185(*GHIDXOWYDOXH
0DQXDOVXSSUHVVLRQSUREDELOLW\FRQVWDQWJURZWK %DVHGRQ185(*GHIDXOWYDOXH
6SOLWIUDFWLRQ RILQWHUUXSWLEOHILUHV %DVHGRQ185(*GHIDXOWYDOXH
&UHGLWKHDWGHWHFWLRQIRULQWHUUXSWLEOH )$/6( ,QSXWGDWD
7LPH7R$XWR'HWHFWLRQ,) 7LPHWRDXWRPDWLF %DVHGRQ185(*
GHWHFWLRQ PLQ
PLQ
7LPH7R$XWR6XSSUHVVLRQ,) 7LPHWRDXWRPDWLF %DVHGRQ185(*
GHWHFWLRQ PLQ
PLQ
3DJH(_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
7DEOH(+/-&DOF8VLQJ185(* &DEOH6SUHDGLQJ5RRP+/-,Q&DELQHW'HWHFWLRQ
3DUDPHWHU 9DOXH -XVWLILFDWLRQ
6XSSUHVVLRQ8QUHOLDELOLW\+DORQ6\VWHP 185(*&5
'HWHFWLRQ8QUHOLDELOLW\6PRNH6\VWHP ,RQL]DWLRQ 185(*&5
GHWHFWLRQ
( &$/&8/$7,21352&(66
7KHIROORZLQJVSUHDGVKHHWXVHVWKHPHWKRGRORJ\VSHFLILHGDERYHDQGLQFRUSRUDWHWKHWLPHWRGDPDJHIURPWKH
FRUUHVSRQGLQJILUHVFHQDULRVLQWKHFDEOHVSUHDGLQJURRPIURPWKH)LUH0RGHOLQJ:RUNERRN7KHRXWSXWIURP
WKLVVSUHDGVKHHWLVDQ163DYHUDJHGRYHUWKHSUREDELOLW\GLVWULEXWLRQWKDWLVWKHQXVHGLQWKH)5$1;PRGHO
TXDQWLILFDWLRQ
6HH$WWDFKPHQW
3DJH(_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
$33(1',;(5()(5(1&(6
185(*0HWKRGRORJ\IRU0RGHOLQJ)LUH*URZWKDQG6XSSUHVVLRQ5HVSRQVHIRU(OHFWULFDO&DELQHW
)LUHVLQ1XFOHDU3RZHU3ODQWV(35,3DOR$OWR&$DQGWKH861XFOHDU5HJXODWRU\&RPPLVVLRQ2IILFHRI
1XFOHDU5HJXODWRU\5HVHDUFK 5(6 :DVKLQJWRQ'&185(*
185(*'HWHUPLQLQJWKH(IIHFWLYHQHVV/LPLWDWLRQVDQG2SHUDWRU5HVSRQVHIRU9HU\(DUO\:DUQLQJ
)LUH'HWHFWLRQ6\VWHPVLQ1XFOHDU)DFLOLWLHV '(/25(69(:),5( 861XFOHDU5HJXODWRU\&RPPLVVLRQ
2IILFHRI1XFOHDU5HJXODWRU\5HVHDUFK 5(6 5RFNYLOOH0')LQDOUHSRUW'HFHPEHU
185(*&5(35,15&5(6)LUH35$0HWKRGRORJ\IRU1XFOHDU3RZHU)DFLOLWLHV9ROXPH'HWDLOHG
0HWKRGRORJ\(OHFWULF3RZHU5HVHDUFK,QVWLWXWH (35, 3DOR$OWR&$DQG861XFOHDU5HJXODWRU\
&RPPLVVLRQ2IILFHRI1XFOHDU5HJXODWRU\5HVHDUFK 5(6 5RFNYLOOH0'(35,75DQG
185(*&5
)LUH3UREDELOLVWLF5LVN$VVHVVPHQW0HWKRGV(QKDQFHPHQWV6XSSOHPHQWWR185(*&5DQG(35,
(35,3DOR$OWR&$DQG15&:DVKLQJWRQ'&'HFHPEHU
185(*9DQG(35,5HILQLQJ$QG&KDUDFWHUL]LQJ+HDW5HOHDVH5DWHV)URP
(OHFWULFDO(QFORVXUHV'XULQJ)LUH 5$&+(//(),5( 9ROXPH3HDN+HDW5HOHDVH5DWHVDQG(IIHFWRI
2EVWUXFWHG3OXPH861XFOHDU5HJXODWRU\&RPPLVVLRQ2IILFHRI1XFOHDU5HJXODWRU\5HVHDUFK 5(6
5RFNYLOOH0'DQG(OHFWULF3RZHU5HVHDUFK,QVWLWXWH (35, 3DOR$OWR&$
185(*95HILQLQJDQG&KDUDFWHUL]LQJ+HDW5HOHDVH5DWHVIURP(OHFWULFDO(QFORVXUHV'XULQJ)LUH
9ROXPH)LUH0RGHOLQJ*XLGDQFHIRU(OHFWULFDO&DELQHWV(OHFWULF0RWRUV,QGRRU'U\7UDQVIRUPHUVDQG
WKH0DLQ&RQWURO%RDUG861XFOHDU5HJXODWRU\&RPPLVVLRQ2IILFHRI1XFOHDU5HJXODWRU\5HVHDUFK
5(6 5RFNYLOOH0'DQG(OHFWULF3RZHU5HVHDUFK,QVWLWXWH (35, 3DOR$OWR&$185(*
9DQG(35,
185(*&59ROXPH³&DEOH+HDW5HOHDVH,JQLWLRQDQG6SUHDGLQ7UD\,QVWDOODWLRQV'XULQJ)LUH
&+5,67,),5( 9ROXPH+RUL]RQWDO7UD\V')LQDO5HSRUW15&:DVKLQJWRQ'&-XO\
185(*&59ROXPH³&DEOH+HDW5HOHDVH,JQLWLRQDQG6SUHDGLQ7UD\,QVWDOODWLRQV'XULQJ)LUH
&+5,67,),5( 3KDVH9HUWLFDO6KDIWVDQG&RUULGRUV')LQDO5HSRUW15&:DVKLQJWRQ'&'HFHPEHU
185(*1XFOHDU3RZHU3ODQW)LUH,JQLWLRQ)UHTXHQF\DQG1RQ6XSSUHVVLRQ3UREDELOLW\(VWLPDWLRQ
8VLQJWKH8SGDWHG)LUH(YHQWV'DWDEDVH8QLWHG6WDWHV)LUH(YHQW([SHULHQFH7KURXJK(35,3DOR
$OWR&$DQG861XFOHDU5HJXODWRU\&RPPLVVLRQ2IILFHRI1XFOHDU5HJXODWRU\5HVHDUFK 5(6
- DVKLQJWRQ'&185(*
&DVWR*$&ORVH2XWRI)LUH3UREDELOLVWLF5LVN$VVHVVPHQW)UHTXHQWO\$VNHG4XHVWLRQRQ
$OWHUQDWLYH0HWKRGRORJ\WR185(*&5IRU%XON&DEOH7UD\,JQLWLRQ&ULWHULD'$'$06$FFHVVLRQ1R
0/$15&:DVKLQJWRQ'&0DUFK
185(*³)LUH'\QDPLFV7RROV )'76 4XDQWLWDWLYH)LUH+D]DUG$QDO\VLV0HWKRGVIRUWKH86
1XFOHDU5HJXODWRU\&RPPLVVLRQ)LUH3URWHFWLRQ,QVSHFWLRQ3URJUDP',TEDO1DQG6DOOH\0+185(*
)LQDO5HSRUW861XFOHDU5HJXODWRU\&RPPLVVLRQ2IILFHRI1XFOHDU5HDFWRU5HJXODWLRQ
- DVKLQJWRQ'&'HFHPEHU
185(*6XSSOHPHQW³)LUH'\QDPLFV7RROV )'76 4XDQWLWDWLYH)LUH+D]DUG$QDO\VLV0HWKRGVIRU
WKH861XFOHDU5HJXODWRU\&RPPLVVLRQ)LUH3URWHFWLRQ,QVSHFWLRQ3URJUDP'6WURXS'7D\ORU*
+DXVPDQ*DQG6DOOH\0+185(*)LQDO5HSRUW861XFOHDU5HJXODWRU\&RPPLVVLRQ2IILFH
RI1XFOHDU5HDFWRU5HJXODWLRQ:DVKLQJWRQ'&-XO\
+HVNHVWDG*³)LUH3OXPHV)ODPH+HLJKWDQG$LU(QWUDLQPHQW'6HFWLRQ7KH6)3(+DQGERRNRI)LUH
3URWHFWLRQ(QJLQHHULQJWK(GLWLRQ6RFLHW\RI)LUH3URWHFWLRQ(QJLQHHUV 6)3( %HWKHVGD0(
3DJH(_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
0F*UDWWDQ.DQG0LOHV6³0RGHOLQJ)LUHV8VLQJ&RPSXWDWLRQDO)OXLG'\QDPLFV &)' '6HFWLRQ7KH
6)3(+DQGERRNRI)LUH3URWHFWLRQ(QJLQHHULQJWK(GLWLRQ6)3(%HWKHVGD0'
,QVSHFWLRQ0DQXDO&KDSWHU ,0& $SSHQGL[)³)LUH3URWHFWLRQ6LJQLILFDQFH'HWHUPLQDWLRQ3URFHVV'
15&:DVKLQJWRQ'&0D\
3DJH(_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
$SSOLFDWLRQ6SHFLILF)LUH35$0RGHOWR6XSSRUW/$5$PHQGPHQWIRU5HSODFHPHQWRI5&36HDOV 6357
$77$&+0(176 1RFKDQJHWRDWWDFKPHQWVLQ5HYVHH5HYIRU
$WWDFKPHQWV
)LOH1DPH )LOH6L]H 'DWH
)LUH0RGHOLQJ:RUNERRNB371B)LQDODFFGE .%
)LUH0RGHOLQJ:RUNERRNB371B),1$/[OVP .%
)LUH0RGHOLQJ:RUNERRNB0&$B371B)LQDODFFGE .%
)LUH0RGHOLQJ:RUNERRNB0&$B371B)LQDO[OVP .%
)LUH0RGHOLQJ:RUNERRN0HWKRGRORJ\5SGI .%
'HW6XSS(YHQW7UHH1RW2EV[OVP .%
6WHDP*HQHUDWRU2YHUILOO$QDO\VLVDQG .%
EDVLFBVWHDPLQJBFDOFBIRU$+)36*/9/)B7VZ
3DJH$WWDFKPHQWV_$XJXVW_5HY &RS\ULJKW-HQVHQ+XJKHV,QF
$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG9
Turkey Point Nuclear Plant L-2022-110 Docket Nos. 50-250 and 50-251 Attachment 4 to Enclosure Turkey Point Nuclear Plant Unit 3 and Unit 4 License Amendment Request 276, Revise Fire Protection Program in Support of Reactor Coolant Pump Seal Replacement Project ATTACHMENT 4 PASSIVE SHUTDOWN SEAL - EVALUATION OF FAILURE TO ACTUATE FOR FRAMATOME RCP SEALS (NON-PROPRIETARY VERSION)
(28 pages follow)
20004-026 (08/12/2020)
Framatome Inc.
Engineering Information Record Document No.: 51 - 9351505 - 000 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Actuate for Framatome RCP Seals Framatome Inc.
This document has been redacted and no longer contains Framatome Proprietary Information.
This redacted version is Non-Proprietary.
Proprietary information contained within brackets and proprietary markings have been removed.
Other than removal of proprietary information, technical content was not changed as attested to by the following individuals:
Preparer: Ricky Paugh Reviewer: Philip Opsal Approver: Jonathan Smith Signature and Date Signature and Date Signature and Date Page 1 of 28
20004-026 (08/12/2020)
Document No.: 51-9351505-000 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Actuate for Framatome RCP Seals Safety Related? YES NO Does this document establish design or technical requirements? YES NO Does this document contain assumptions requiring verification? YES NO Does this document contain Customer Required Format? YES NO Signature Block Pages/Sections Name and P/LP, R/LR, M, Prepared/Reviewed/
Title/Discipline Signature A-CRF, A Date Approved or Comments Garrett Snedeker, PRA GW SNEDEKER P All Supervisor 8/12/2022 Gordy Salisbury, GC SALISBURY R All Risk Informed Engineer 8/12/2022 Ricky Paugh, RL PAUGH A All Engineering Supervisor 8/12/2022 Note: P/LP designates Preparer (P), Lead Preparer (LP)
M designates Mentor (M)
R/LR designates Reviewer (R), Lead Reviewer (LR)
A-CRF designates Project Manager Approver of Customer Required Format (A-CRF)
A designates Approver/RTM - Verification of Reviewer Independence Project Manager Approval of Customer References (N/A if not applicable)
Name Title (printed or typed) (printed or typed) Signature Date N/A Page 2
20004-026 (08/12/2020)
Document No.: 51-9351505-000 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Actuate for Framatome RCP Seals Record of Revision Revision Pages/Sections/
No. Paragraphs Changed Brief Description / Change Authorization 000 All Initial Release Page 3
Document No.: 51-9351505-000 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Actuate for Framatome RCP Seals Table of Contents Page SIGNATURE BLOCK ............................................................................................................................. 2 RECORD OF REVISION ....................................................................................................................... 3 LIST OF TABLES .................................................................................................................................. 5 LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................................................ 6 LIST OF ACRONYMS............................................................................................................................ 7
1.0 INTRODUCTION
........................................................................................................................ 8 2.0 OBJECTIVE ............................................................................................................................... 8 3.0 PSDS DESCRIPTION ................................................................................................................ 8 3.1 [ ] ............................................................................................................... 9 3.2 [ ] ............................................................................................................. 10 3.3 [ ] ............................................................................................................... 10 3.4 [ ] ..................................................................................................... 11 3.5 [ ] / PSDS Assembly............................................................................................ 12 4.0 ACTUATION OF THE PSDS .................................................................................................... 13 5.0 FAILURE MODES AND EFFECTS ANALYSIS (FMEA) ........................................................... 14 5.1 Failure to Actuate Failure Modes and Effects Analysis ................................................. 14 5.2 FMEA Results............................................................................................................... 20 6.0 EVALUATION OF POTENTIAL FAILURE MECHANISM OF COMPONENTS ......................... 20 6.1 [ ] ........................................................................................ 20 6.2 [ ] ....................................................................................... 22 6.3 [ ].......................................................................................... 22 6.4 [ ] ......................................................................................... 22 7.0
SUMMARY
OF PSDS FAILURE TO ACTUATE ....................................................................... 23 7.1 Summary of Basic Events ............................................................................................. 23
8.0 REFERENCES
......................................................................................................................... 23 APPENDIX A : FAILURE OF PSDS TO ACTUATE FAULT TREE ................................................. A-1 APPENDIX B : HRA CALCULATOR DETAILS............................................................................... B-1 Page 4
Document No.: 51-9351505-000 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Actuate for Framatome RCP Seals List of Tables Page Table 5-1: FMEA Table - [ ] ........................................................................................... 15 Table 5-2: FMEA Table - [ ] ........................................................................................... 16 Table 5-3: FMEA Table - [ ] ............................................................................................. 18 Table 7-1: Basic Event Summary ........................................................................................................ 23 Page 5
Document No.: 51-9351505-000 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Actuate for Framatome RCP Seals List of Figures Page Figure 3-1: Cross-Section View of PSDS .............................................................................................. 9 Figure 3-2: [ ] ....................................................................................................... 10 Figure 3-3: [ ]............................................................................. 11 Figure 3-4: [ ] ............................................................................................. 12 Figure 3-5: [ ] .................................................................................................................... 12 Figure 4-1: PSDS in Inactive State...................................................................................................... 13 Figure 4-2: PSDS after Actuation ........................................................................................................ 14 Page 6
Document No.: 51-9351505-000 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Actuate for Framatome RCP Seals List of Acronyms ABWR Advanced Boiling Water Reactor AC Alternating Current CCCG Common-Cause Component Group CCF Common Cause Failure CDF Cumulative Distribution Function DMA Dynamic Mechanical Analysis DSC Differential Scanning Calorimetric
[ ]
ELAP Extended Loss of AC Power EDG Emergency Diesel Generator FMEA Failure Modes and Effects Analysis FTC Failure to Close gpm Gallons per Minute HCHPF High Confidence High Probability of Failure HEP Human Error Probability HRA Human Reliability Analysis HRAC HRA Calculator LOCA Loss of Coolant Accident LOOP Loss of Off-Site Power PDF Probability Density Function
[ ]
PORV Power Operated Relief Valve PRA Probabilistic Risk Assessment PSDS Passive ShutDown Seal psi Pounds per Square Inch PPM Parts per Million
[ ]
PWR Pressurized Water Reactor QA Quality Assurance QC Quality Control RCP Reactor Coolant Pump SBO Station Blackout THERP Technique for Human Error-Rate Prediction Page 7
Document No.: 51-9351505-000 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Actuate for Framatome RCP Seals
1.0 INTRODUCTION
Excessive leakage of reactor coolant pump (RCP) seals following loss of component cooling water or loss of power events can be a significant contributor to risk at nuclear power plants. This is particularly true in the event of an extended station blackout (SBO) or extended loss of alternating current (AC) power (ELAP), when the RCP seals can be exposed to high temperature and high pressure conditions for a significant period of time. To address this issue, Framatome offers a device, the Passive ShutDown Seal (PSDS), which is available as a solution to RCP seal leakage during an extended SBO.
This document presents the results of an evaluation of the failure of the PSDS to actuate during an accident scenario. The evaluation is not based on the application of the PSDS in the seal package for a particular RCP type.
2.0 OBJECTIVE The objective of this report is to assess the potential failure mechanisms that are associated with the subcomponents of the PSDS, [
]
The objective of the evaluation is to estimate a reasonable probability of the failure to actuate that can be used as part of a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA).
3.0 PSDS DESCRIPTION The PSDS is a passively-actuated mechanical seal that is designed to provide very low leakage through currently installed RCP seals in the event of ELAP. The PSDS is available pre-assembled into a #1 seal insert that can be installed with little or no modifications to existing RCP seals. The PSDS is installed as an integral portion of the existing #1 seal insert and is located upstream of the No. 1 RCP seal leak-off line. Information on the general design, components, and operation of the PSDS can be found in Reference [1, Section 5].
[
]
Page 8
Document No.: 51-9351505-000 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Actuate for Framatome RCP Seals Figure 3-1: Cross-Section View of PSDS The PSDS is a passive device, which is not dependent on any support system, e.g., electrical power, cooling water, instrument air, etc. The following is a description of each component of the PSDS and its role in operation of the PSDS.
3.1 [ ]
A drawing of a [ ] is shown as Figure 3-2 [1, page 18].
Page 9
Document No.: 51-9351505-000 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Actuate for Framatome RCP Seals Figure 3-2: [ ]
3.2 [ ]
3.3 [ ]
A drawing of a [ ] is shown as Figure 3-3 [1, pages 17, 18].
Page 10
Document No.: 51-9351505-000 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Actuate for Framatome RCP Seals Figure 3-3: [ ]
3.4 [ ]
A drawing of a [ ] is shown as Figure 3-4 [1, page 19].
Page 11
Document No.: 51-9351505-000 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Actuate for Framatome RCP Seals Figure 3-4: [ ]
3.5 [ ] / PSDS Assembly A drawing of the [ ] is shown as Figure 3-5 [1, page 17].
Figure 3-5: [ ]
Page 12
Document No.: 51-9351505-000 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Actuate for Framatome RCP Seals 4.0 ACTUATION OF THE PSDS
[
]
Figure 4-1: PSDS in Inactive State Page 13
Document No.: 51-9351505-000 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Actuate for Framatome RCP Seals Figure 4-2: PSDS after Actuation 5.0 FAILURE MODES AND EFFECTS ANALYSIS (FMEA) 5.1 Failure to Actuate Failure Modes and Effects Analysis Page 14
Document No.: 51-9351505-000 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Actuate for Framatome RCP Seals Table 5-1: FMEA Table - [ ]
Page 15
Document No.: 51-9351505-000 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Actuate for Framatome RCP Seals Table 5-2: FMEA Table - [ ]
Page 16
Document No.: 51-9351505-000 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Actuate for Framatome RCP Seals Table 5-2: FMEA Table - [ ] (Continued)
Page 17
Document No.: 51-9351505-000 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Actuate for Framatome RCP Seals Table 5-3: FMEA Table - [ ]
Page 18
Document No.: 51-9351505-000 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Actuate for Framatome RCP Seals Table 5-3: FMEA Table - [ ] (Continued)
Page 19
Document No.: 51-9351505-000 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Actuate for Framatome RCP Seals 5.2 FMEA Results After performing the component based FMEA for the PSDS, [
] The following failure mechanisms are discussed in additional details in the proceeding sections:
6.0 EVALUATION OF POTENTIAL FAILURE MECHANISM OF COMPONENTS 6.1 [ ]
Page 20
Document No.: 51-9351505-000 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Actuate for Framatome RCP Seals Page 21
Document No.: 51-9351505-000 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Actuate for Framatome RCP Seals 6.2 [ ]
6.3 [ ]
6.4 [ ]
Page 22
Document No.: 51-9351505-000 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Actuate for Framatome RCP Seals 7.0
SUMMARY
OF PSDS FAILURE TO ACTUATE 7.1 Summary of Basic Events The following table summarizes all the basic events included in the fault tree that is used to quantify the probability of the PSDS Failure to Actuate.
Table 7-1: Basic Event Summary
8.0 REFERENCES
- 1. Framatome Document No. 38-9351062-000, Passive Shutdown Seal [
] for Reactor Coolant Pump [ ].
- 2. Framatome Document No. 58-9346852-000, Passive ShutDown Seal (PSDS) for Reactor Coolant Pump - [ ] - Test Report
- 3. AREVA Document No. 38-9227792-000, Dispositif dEtancheite Passif pour systeme de joints darbre des [ ], Note de Synthese de Qualification (lot N1).
Page 23
Document No.: 51-9351505-000 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Actuate for Framatome RCP Seals APPENDIX A: FAILURE OF PSDS TO ACTUATE FAULT TREE The following is the fault tree developed to calculate the probability of the failure of the PSDS to actuate.
Page A-1
Document No.: 51-9351505-000 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Actuate for Framatome RCP Seals Page A-2
Document No.: 51-9351505-000 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Actuate for Framatome RCP Seals APPENDIX B: HRA CALCULATOR DETAILS Page B-1
Document No.: 51-9351505-000 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Actuate for Framatome RCP Seals PSDS-ASSEMBLY, Page B-2
Document No.: 51-9351505-000 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Actuate for Framatome RCP Seals Page B-3
Turkey Point Nuclear Plant L-2022-110 Docket Nos. 50-250 and 50-251 Attachment 6 to Enclosure Turkey Point Nuclear Plant Unit 3 and Unit 4 License Amendment Request 276, Revise Fire Protection Program in Support of Reactor Coolant Pump Seal Replacement Project ATTACHMENT 6 PASSIVE SHUTDOWN SEAL - EVALUATION OF FAILURE TO REMAIN SEALED (NON-PROPRIETARY VERSION)
(36 pages follow)
20004-026 (08/12/2020)
Framatome Inc.
Engineering Information Record Document No.: 51 - 9348566 - 001 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Remain Sealed Framatome Inc.
This document has been redacted and no longer contains Framatome Proprietary Information.
This redacted version is Non-Proprietary.
Proprietary information contained within brackets and proprietary markings have been removed.
Other than removal of proprietary information, technical content was not changed as attested to by the following individuals:
Preparer: Ricky Paugh Reviewer: Philip Opsal Approver: Jonathan Smith Signature and Date Signature and Date Signature and Date Page 1 of 36
20004-026 (08/12/2020)
Document No.: 51-9348566-001 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Remain Sealed Safety Related? YES NO Does this document establish design or technical requirements? YES NO Does this document contain assumptions requiring verification? YES NO Does this document contain Customer Required Format? YES NO Signature Block Pages/Sections Name and P/LP, R/LR, M, Prepared/Reviewed/
Title/Discipline Signature A-CRF, A Date Approved or Comments Garrett Snedeker, PRA GW SNEDEKER P All Supervisor 8/15/2022 Gordy Salisbury, GC SALISBURY R All Risk Informed Engineer 8/15/2022 Ricky Paugh, RL PAUGH A All Engineering Supervisor 8/15/2022 Note: P/LP designates Preparer (P), Lead Preparer (LP)
M designates Mentor (M)
R/LR designates Reviewer (R), Lead Reviewer (LR)
A-CRF designates Project Manager Approver of Customer Required Format (A-CRF)
A designates Approver/RTM - Verification of Reviewer Independence Project Manager Approval of Customer References (N/A if not applicable)
Name Title (printed or typed) (printed or typed) Signature Date N/A Page 2
20004-026 (08/12/2020)
Document No.: 51-9348566-001 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Remain Sealed Record of Revision Revision Pages/Sections/
No. Paragraphs Changed Brief Description / Change Authorization 000 All Initial Release 001 All Minor Revision throughout Page 3
Document No.: 51-9348566-001 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Remain Sealed Table of Contents Page SIGNATURE BLOCK ............................................................................................................................. 2 RECORD OF REVISION ....................................................................................................................... 3 LIST OF TABLES .................................................................................................................................. 5 LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................................................ 6 LIST OF ACRONYMS............................................................................................................................ 7
1.0 INTRODUCTION
........................................................................................................................ 8 2.0 OBJECTIVE ............................................................................................................................... 8 3.0 PSDS DESCRIPTION ................................................................................................................ 8 3.1 [ ] ............................................................................................................... 9 3.2 [ ] ............................................................................................................. 10 3.3 [ ] ............................................................................................................... 10 3.4 [ ] ..................................................................................................... 11 3.5 [ ] / PSDS Assembly............................................................................................ 12 4.0 ACTUATION OF THE PSDS .................................................................................................... 13 5.0 FAILURE MODES AND EFFECTS ANALYSIS (FMEA) ........................................................... 14 5.1 Failure to Actuate Failure Modes and Effects Analysis ................................................. 14 5.2 FMEA Results............................................................................................................... 19 6.0 EVALUATION OF POTENTIAL FAILURE MECHANISM OF COMPONENTS ......................... 19 6.1 Temperature Related Failure ........................................................................................ 21 6.1.1 [ ] ........................................................................... 21 6.1.2 [ ]........................................................................... 21 6.1.3 [ ]................................................................. 21 6.2 [ ] .......................................................................................... 22 6.3 [ ] ......................................................................................... 22 6.4 [ ] ................................................ 23 6.5 [ ] ......................................................................................... 23 7.0
SUMMARY
OF PSDS FAILURE TO ACTUATE ....................................................................... 24 7.1 Summary of Basic Events ............................................................................................. 24
8.0 REFERENCES
......................................................................................................................... 25 APPENDIX A : [ ] TECHNICAL DATA SHEET ........................... A-1 APPENDIX B : FAILURE OF PSDS TO REMAIN SEALED FAULT TREE ..................................... B-1 APPENDIX C : HRA CALCULATOR DETAILS...............................................................................C-1 Page 4
Document No.: 51-9348566-001 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Remain Sealed List of Tables Page Table 5-1: FMEA Table - [ ] ................................................................................... 15 Table 7-1: Basic Event Summary ........................................................................................................ 24 Page 5
Document No.: 51-9348566-001 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Remain Sealed List of Figures Page Figure 3-1: Cross-Section View of PSDS .............................................................................................. 9 Figure 3-2: [ ] ....................................................................................................... 10 Figure 3-3: [ ]............................................................................. 11 Figure 3-4: [ ] ............................................................................................. 12 Figure 3-5: [ ] .................................................................................................................... 12 Figure 4-1: PSDS in Inactive State...................................................................................................... 13 Figure 4-2: PSDS after Actuation ........................................................................................................ 14 Figure 6-1: Failure of PSDS To Remain Sealed Fault Tree ................................................................. 20 Page 6
Document No.: 51-9348566-001 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Remain Sealed List of Acronyms AC Alternating Current CCCG Common-Cause Component Group CCF Common Cause Failure CDF Cumulative Distribution Function DMA Dynamic Mechanical Analysis DSC Differential Scanning Calorimetric
[ ]
ELAP Extended Loss of AC Power EDG Emergency Diesel Generator FMEA Failure Modes and Effects Analysis FTC Failure to Close gpm Gallons per Minute HEP Human Error Probability HRA Human Reliability Analysis HRAC HRA Calculator LOCA Loss of Coolant Accident LOOP Loss of Off-Site Power PDF Probability Density Function
[ ]
PORV Power Operated Relief Valve PRA Probabilistic Risk Assessment PSDS Passive ShutDown Seal psi Pounds per Square Inch PPM Parts per Million
[ ]
PWR Pressurized Water Reactor QA Quality Assurance QC Quality Control RCP Reactor Coolant Pump SBO Station Blackout THERP Technique for Human Error-Rate Prediction Page 7
Document No.: 51-9348566-001 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Remain Sealed
1.0 INTRODUCTION
Excessive leakage of reactor coolant pump (RCP) seals following loss of component cooling water or loss of power events can be a significant contributor to risk at nuclear power plants. This is particularly true in the event of an extended station blackout (SBO) or extended loss of alternating current (AC) power (ELAP), when the RCP seals can be exposed to high temperature and high pressure conditions for a significant period of time. To address this issue, Framatome offers a device, the Passive ShutDown Seal (PSDS), which is available as a solution to RCP seal leakage during an extended SBO.
This document presents the results of an evaluation of the failure of the PSDS to remain sealed after successful actuation. The evaluation is not based on the application of the PSDS in the seal package for a particular RCP type.
2.0 OBJECTIVE The objective of this report is to assess the potential failure mechanisms that are associated [
]
The objective of the evaluation is to estimate a reasonable probability of the failure to actuate that can be used as part of a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA).
3.0 PSDS DESCRIPTION The PSDS is a passively-actuated mechanical seal that is designed to provide very low leakage through currently installed RCP seals in the event of ELAP. The PSDS is available pre-assembled into a #1 seal insert that can be installed with little or no modifications to existing RCP seals. The PSDS is installed as an integral portion of the existing #1 seal insert and is located upstream of the No. 1 RCP seal leak-off line. Information on the general design, components, and operation of the PSDS can be found in Reference [1, Section 5].
Page 8
Document No.: 51-9348566-001 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Remain Sealed Figure 3-1: Cross-Section View of PSDS The PSDS is a passive device, which is not dependent on any support system, e.g., electrical power, cooling water, instrument air, etc. The following is a description of each component of the PSDS and its role in operation of the PSDS.
3.1 [ ]
A drawing of a [ ] is shown as Figure 3-2 [1, page 18].
Page 9
Document No.: 51-9348566-001 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Remain Sealed Figure 3-2: [ ]
3.2 [ ]
3.3 [ ]
A drawing of a [ ] is shown as Figure 3-3 [1, pages 17, 18].
Page 10
Document No.: 51-9348566-001 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Remain Sealed Figure 3-3: [ ]
3.4 [ ]
A drawing of a [ ] is shown as Figure 3-4 [1, page 19].
Page 11
Document No.: 51-9348566-001 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Remain Sealed Figure 3-4: [ ]
3.5 [ ] / PSDS Assembly A drawing of the [ ] is shown as Figure 3-5 [1, page 17].
Figure 3-5: [ ]
Page 12
Document No.: 51-9348566-001 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Remain Sealed 4.0 ACTUATION OF THE PSDS
[
] A schematic showing a PSDS in the inactive state is shown as Figure 4-1 [3, page 16].
Figure 4-1: PSDS in Inactive State
[
] A schematic showing a PSDS in the actuated state is shown as Figure 4-2 [3, page 16].
Page 13
Document No.: 51-9348566-001 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Remain Sealed Figure 4-2: PSDS after Actuation 5.0 FAILURE MODES AND EFFECTS ANALYSIS (FMEA) 5.1 Failure to Actuate Failure Modes and Effects Analysis Page 14
Document No.: 51-9348566-001 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Remain Sealed Table 5-1: FMEA Table - [ ]
Page 15
Document No.: 51-9348566-001 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Remain Sealed Page 16
Document No.: 51-9348566-001 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Remain Sealed Page 17
Document No.: 51-9348566-001 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Remain Sealed Page 18
Document No.: 51-9348566-001 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Remain Sealed 5.2 FMEA Results After performing the component based FMEA for the Sealing Split Ring, [
] The following failure mechanisms are discussed in additional details in the proceeding sections:
6.0 EVALUATION OF POTENTIAL FAILURE MECHANISM OF COMPONENTS The following section describes the potential failure mechanisms of the [ ]. These failures are quantified using the fault tree included in Figure 6-1. Table 7-1 summarizes the basic event probabilities and basis for the values.
Page 19
Document No.: 51-9348566-001 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Remain Sealed Figure 6-1: Failure of PSDS To Remain Sealed Fault Tree Page 20
Document No.: 51-9348566-001 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Remain Sealed 6.1 Temperature Related Failure 6.1.1 [ ]
6.1.2 [ ]
6.1.3 [ ]
Page 21
Document No.: 51-9348566-001 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Remain Sealed 6.2 [ ]
6.3 [ ]
Page 22
Document No.: 51-9348566-001 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Remain Sealed 6.4 [ ]
6.5 [ ]
Page 23
Document No.: 51-9348566-001 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Remain Sealed 7.0
SUMMARY
OF PSDS FAILURE TO ACTUATE 7.1 Summary of Basic Events The following table summarizes all the basic events included in the fault tree that is used to quantify the probability of the PSDS Failure to Remain Sealed. See Appendix B for the fault tree used to quantify the failure rate of the PSDS to remain sealed.
Table 7-1: Basic Event Summary Page 24
Document No.: 51-9348566-001 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Remain Sealed
8.0 REFERENCES
- 1. Framatome Document No. 38-9351062-000, Passive Shutdown Seal [
] for Reactor Coolant Pump [ ].
- 2. Framatome Document No. 58-9346852-000, Passive ShutDown Seal (PSDS) for Reactor Coolant Pump - [ ] - Test Report
- 3. AREVA Document No. 38-9227792-000, Dispositif dEtancheite Passif pour systeme de joints darbre des [ ], Note de Synthese de Qualification (lot N1).
Page 25
Document No.: 51-9348566-001 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Remain Sealed APPENDIX A: [ ] TECHNICAL DATA SHEET Page A-1
Document No.: 51-9348566-001 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Remain Sealed Page A-2
Document No.: 51-9348566-001 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Remain Sealed APPENDIX B: FAILURE OF PSDS TO REMAIN SEALED FAULT TREE The following is the fault tree developed to calculate the probability of the failure of the PSDS to remain sealed after successful actuation.
Page B-1
Document No.: 51-9348566-001 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Remain Sealed Page B-2
Document No.: 51-9348566-001 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Remain Sealed APPENDIX C: HRA CALCULATOR DETAILS Page C-1
Document No.: 51-9348566-001 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Remain Sealed PSDS-ASSEMBLY, Page C-2
Document No.: 51-9348566-001 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Remain Sealed Page C-3
Document No.: 51-9348566-001 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Remain Sealed Page C-4
Document No.: 51-9348566-001 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Remain Sealed Page C-5
Document No.: 51-9348566-001 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Remain Sealed Page C-6
Document No.: 51-9348566-001 Passive Shutdown Seal - Evaluation of Failure To Remain Sealed Page C-7
Turkey Point Nuclear Plant L-2022-110 Docket Nos. 50-250 and 50-251 Attachment 8 to Enclosure Turkey Point Nuclear Plant Unit 3 and Unit 4 License Amendment Request 276, Revise Fire Protection Program in Support of Reactor Coolant Pump Seal Replacement Project ATTACHMENT 8 PASSIVE SHUTDOWN SEAL - EVALUATION OF SPURIOUS ACTUATION (NON-PROPRIETARY VERSION)
(38 pages follow)
20004-025 (02/27/2018)
Framatome Inc.
Engineering Information Record Document No.: 51 - 9227814 - 004 Passive Shutdown Seal - PRA Evaluation of Spurious Actuation Framatome Inc.
This document has been redacted and no longer contains Framatome Proprietary Information.
This redacted version is Non-Proprietary.
Proprietary information contained within brackets and proprietary markings have been removed.
Other than removal of proprietary information, technical content was not changed as attested to by the following individuals:
Preparer: Ricky Paugh Reviewer: Philip Opsal Approver: Jonathan Smith Signature and Date Signature and Date Signature and Date Page 1 of 2
20004-026 (08/12/2020)
Document No.: 51-9227814-004 Passive Shutdown Seal - PRA Evaluation of Spurious Actuation Safety Related? YES NO Does this document establish design or technical requirements? YES NO Does this document contain assumptions requiring verification? YES NO Does this document contain Customer Required Format? YES NO Signature Block Pages/Sections Name and P/LP, R/LR, M, Prepared/Reviewed/
Title/Discipline Signature A-CRF, A Date Approved or Comments Ahmed Abdelnabi A ABDELNABI LP All Engineer 8/15/2022 Garrett Snedeker GW SNEDEKER LR All PRA Supervisor 8/15/2022 Ricky Paugh RL PAUGH A All Engineering Supervisor 8/15/2022 Note: P/LP designates Preparer (P), Lead Preparer (LP)
M designates Mentor (M)
R/LR designates Reviewer (R), Lead Reviewer (LR)
A-CRF designates Project Manager Approver of Customer Required Format (A-CRF)
A designates Approver/RTM - Verification of Reviewer Independence Project Manager Approval of Customer References (N/A if not applicable)
Name Title (printed or typed) (printed or typed) Signature Date N/A Page 2
20004-025 (02/27/2018)
Document No.: 51-9227814-004 Passive Shutdown Seal - PRA Evaluation of Spurious Actuation Record of Revision Revision Pages/Sections/
No. Paragraphs Changed Brief Description / Change Authorization 000 All Initial Release Section 3.0 Edited text to identify location of PSDS and remove sentences associated 001 with one of the references.
FMEA Table Changed table number.
Throughout document Changed Areva to Framatome.
Throughout document Individual reference locations were updated in accordance with new updated references.
Table of Contents Section page numbers are updated.
Section 1.0 Scope of document is 100A RCP.
Section 6.1.2 Table numbers and figure numbers updated.
Section 6.2 Updated service life of PSDS from [ ] to twelve years [
002 ]
Section 6.5 Estimation of spurious actuation frequency changed based on 12 year service life.
Section 7.0 [
]
Section 8.0 Updated References.
003 Throughout document Revised the document so that it encompasses Low Temperature PSDS
[ ]
Throughout Document Updated References Appendix A Replaced [ ] Data Sheet with a new one.
Appendix B Added Product Data Sheet for [ ]
Appendix C Added Framatome QA/QC requirements for RCP Seal Parts Page 3
Document No.: 51-9227814-004 Passive Shutdown Seal - PRA Evaluation of Spurious Actuation Table of Contents Page SIGNATURE BLOCK ............................................................................................................................. 2 RECORD OF REVISION ....................................................................................................................... 3 LIST OF TABLES .................................................................................................................................. 6 LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................................................ 7 LIST OF ACRONYMS............................................................................................................................ 8
1.0 INTRODUCTION
........................................................................................................................ 9 2.0 OBJECTIVE ............................................................................................................................... 9 3.0 PSDS DESCRIPTION ................................................................................................................ 9 3.1 [ ] ............................................................................................................. 10 3.2 [ ] ............................................................................................................. 11 3.3 [ ] ............................................................................................................... 11 3.4 [ ] ..................................................................................................... 12 3.5 [ ] / PSDS Assembly............................................................................................ 12 4.0 ACTUATION OF THE PSDS .................................................................................................... 13 5.0 FAILURE MODES AND EFFECTS ANALYSIS (FMEA) ........................................................... 14 5.1 Spurious Actuation Failure Modes and Effects Analysis ............................................... 14 5.2 FMEA Results............................................................................................................... 16 6.0 EVALUATION OF MECHANICAL STRESS AND STRENGTH OF [ ] ............ 16 6.1 [ ] .............................................................. 16 6.1.1 [ ] ...................................................................................... 16 6.1.2 [ ]................................................................................... 17 6.2 [ ] ................................................. 19 6.3 [ ] ................................................................................................ 19 6.4 [ ]............................................................................... 20 6.5 Result ........................................................................................................................... 21 7.0 EVALUATION OF [
]................................................................................................................................ 21 7.1 [ ] .......................................................................................... 22 7.2 [ ] ...................................... 23 7.2.1 [ ] ............................................................................ 23 7.2.2 [ ] ........................................................................ 23
8.0 REFERENCES
......................................................................................................................... 24 APPENDIX A : [ ] TECHNICAL DATA SHEET ..................... A-1 APPENDIX B : [ ] TECHNICAL DATA SHEET.................... B-1 Page 4
Document No.: 51-9227814-004 Passive Shutdown Seal - PRA Evaluation of Spurious Actuation Table of Contents (continued)
Page APPENDIX C : FRAMATOME INC. RCP SEALS QA/QC REQUIREMENTS ................................. C-1 APPENDIX D : DOCUMENTATION OF SPREADSHEET USED TO DETERMINE PDF ................ D-1 Page 5
Document No.: 51-9227814-004 Passive Shutdown Seal - PRA Evaluation of Spurious Actuation List of Tables Page Table 5-1: FMEA Table - [ ] ........................................................................................... 15 Table 6-1: [ ] ................................................... 17 Table 6-2: [ ]...................................................... 17 Table 7-1: [ ] ................................. 23 Page 6
Document No.: 51-9227814-004 Passive Shutdown Seal - PRA Evaluation of Spurious Actuation List of Figures Page Figure 3-1: PSDS Assembly View ....................................................................................................... 10 Figure 3-2: [ ] ....................................................................................................... 11 Figure 3-3: [ ]............................................................................. 11 Figure 3-4: [ ] ............................................................................................. 12 Figure 3-5: [ ] .................................................................................................................... 13 Figure 4-1: PSDS in Inactive State...................................................................................................... 13 Figure 4-2: PSDS after Actuation ........................................................................................................ 14 Figure 6-1: [ ] ..................................... 17 Figure 6-2: [ ] ........................................................ 18 Figure 6-3: [
]................................................................................................................................ 19 Figure 6-4: [ ] ..................................... 20 Figure 6-5: [ ] ....... 20 Figure 7-1: [ ] ............................................................................................... 22 Page 7
Document No.: 51-9227814-004 Passive Shutdown Seal - PRA Evaluation of Spurious Actuation List of Acronyms AC Alternating Current CDF Cumulative Distribution Function DMA Dynamic Mechanical Analysis DSC Differential Scanning Calorimetric
[ ]
ELAP Extended Loss of AC Power EDG Emergency Diesel Generator FMEA Failure Modes and Effects Analysis FTC Failure to Close gpm Gallons per Minute LOCA Loss of Coolant Accident LOOP Loss of Off-Site Power PDF Probability Density Function
[ ]
PRA Probabilistic Risk Assessment PSDS Passive ShutDown Seal psi Pounds per Square Inch PPM Parts per Million
[ ]
PWR Pressurized Water Reactor QA Quality Assurance QC Quality Control RCP Reactor Coolant Pump SBO Station Blackout Page 8
Document No.: 51-9227814-004 Passive Shutdown Seal - PRA Evaluation of Spurious Actuation
1.0 INTRODUCTION
Excessive leakage of reactor coolant pump (RCP) seals following loss of component cooling water or loss of power events can be a significant contributor to risk at nuclear power plants. This is particularly true in the event of an extended station blackout (SBO) or extended loss of alternative current (AC) power (ELAP), when the RCP seals can be exposed to high temperature and high-pressure conditions for a significant period of time. To address this issue, Framatome offers a device, the Passive ShutDown Seal, (PSDS), which is available as a solution to RCP seal leakage during an extended SBO or ELAP condition.
This document presents the results of an evaluation of the potential for a PSDS to spuriously actuate.
The evaluation is for the application of the PSDS in the seal package for [
]
2.0 OBJECTIVE The objective of this report is to assess the potential failure mechanisms that are associated with [
]
[
]
The objective of the evaluation is to estimate a reasonable probability (frequency) of spurious actuation that can be used as part of a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA).
3.0 PSDS DESCRIPTION The PSDS is a passively-actuated mechanical seal that is designed to provide very low leakage through currently installed RCP seals in the event of ELAP. The PSDS is available pre-assembled into a #1 seal insert that can be installed with little or no modifications to existing RCP seals. The PSDS is installed as an integral portion of the existing #1 seal insert and is located upstream of the No. 1 RCP seal leak-off line. Information on the general design, components, and operation of the PSDS can be found in Reference 2, Section 5.
[
]
Page 9
Document No.: 51-9227814-004 Passive Shutdown Seal - PRA Evaluation of Spurious Actuation Figure 3-1: PSDS Assembly View The PSDS is a passive device, which is not dependent on any support system, e.g., electrical power, cooling water, instrument air, etc. The following is a description of each component of the PSDS and its role in operation of the PSDS.
The PSDS comes in two models, a high temperature model, and a low temperature model. The high temperature model actuates at a higher temperature than the low temperature model. The difference in actuation temperature between the two models is due to different fuse spacer material, explained in further detail in Section 3.1.
3.1 [ ]
Page 10
Document No.: 51-9227814-004 Passive Shutdown Seal - PRA Evaluation of Spurious Actuation A drawing of a [ ] is shown as Figure 3-1, [2, page 18].
Figure 3-2: [ ]
3.2 [ ]
3.3 [ ]
A drawing of a PSDS [ ] is shown as Figure 3-2 [2, pages 17, 18].
Figure 3-3: [ ]
Page 11
Document No.: 51-9227814-004 Passive Shutdown Seal - PRA Evaluation of Spurious Actuation 3.4 [ ]
A drawing of a [ ] is shown as Figure 3-3 [2, page 19].
Figure 3-4: [ ]
3.5 [ ] / PSDS Assembly A drawing of the [ ] is shown as Figure 3-4 [2, page 17].
Page 12
Document No.: 51-9227814-004 Passive Shutdown Seal - PRA Evaluation of Spurious Actuation Figure 3-5: [ ]
4.0 ACTUATION OF THE PSDS
[
] A schematic showing a PSDS in the inactive state is shown as Figure 4-1 [3, page 16].
Figure 4-1: PSDS in Inactive State
[
] A schematic showing a PSDS in the actuated state is shown as Figure 4-2 [3, page 16].
Page 13
Document No.: 51-9227814-004 Passive Shutdown Seal - PRA Evaluation of Spurious Actuation Figure 4-2: PSDS after Actuation 5.0 FAILURE MODES AND EFFECTS ANALYSIS (FMEA) 5.1 Spurious Actuation Failure Modes and Effects Analysis A tabular-format FMEA for the fuser spacer was developed as shown in Table 5-1. The FMEA considered the function, possible failure modes, failure mechanisms, and possible preventative measures for spurious actuation of the PSDS due to [
]
Page 14
Document No.: 51-9227814-004 Passive Shutdown Seal - PRA Evaluation of Spurious Actuation Table 5-1: FMEA Table - [ ]
Page 15
Document No.: 51-9227814-004 Passive Shutdown Seal - PRA Evaluation of Spurious Actuation 5.2 FMEA Results After performing the component-based FMEA for [
]
6.0 EVALUATION OF MECHANICAL STRESS AND STRENGTH OF [ ]
6.1 [ ]
6.1.1 [ ]
Page 16
Document No.: 51-9227814-004 Passive Shutdown Seal - PRA Evaluation of Spurious Actuation Figure 6-1: [ ]
6.1.2 [ ]
Table 6-1: [ ]
Table 6-2: [ ]
Page 17
Document No.: 51-9227814-004 Passive Shutdown Seal - PRA Evaluation of Spurious Actuation Figure 6-2: [ ]
Page 18
Document No.: 51-9227814-004 Passive Shutdown Seal - PRA Evaluation of Spurious Actuation Figure 6-3: [
]
6.2 [ ]
6.3 [ ]
Page 19
Document No.: 51-9227814-004 Passive Shutdown Seal - PRA Evaluation of Spurious Actuation Figure 6-4: [ ]
6.4 [ ]
Figure 6-5: [ ]
Page 20
Document No.: 51-9227814-004 Passive Shutdown Seal - PRA Evaluation of Spurious Actuation 6.5 Result 7.0 EVALUATION OF [
]
Page 21
Document No.: 51-9227814-004 Passive Shutdown Seal - PRA Evaluation of Spurious Actuation Figure 7-1: [ ]
7.1 [ ]
Page 22
Document No.: 51-9227814-004 Passive Shutdown Seal - PRA Evaluation of Spurious Actuation 7.2 [ ]
7.2.1 [ ]
Table 7-1: [ ]
7.2.2 [ ]
Page 23
Document No.: 51-9227814-004 Passive Shutdown Seal - PRA Evaluation of Spurious Actuation
8.0 REFERENCES
- 1. AREVA Document No. 58-9217959-000, Passive ShutDown Seal (PSDS) for Reactor Coolant Pump, Qualification of the [ ] Test Report - Impact of the PSDS Inadvertent Actuation on the
[ ]
- 2. Framatome Document No. 38-9217970-002, Passive ShutDown Seal (PSDS) for Reactor Coolant Pump, Qualification of the [ ] - Summary Report (US Unit).
- 3. AREVA Document No. 38-9227792-000, Dispositif dEtancheite Passif pour systeme de joints darbre des [ ], Note de Synthese de Qualification (lot N1).
- 4. Ichikawa, M., A Meaning of the Overlapped Area Under Probability Density Curves of Stress and Strength, Reliability Engineering and System Safety 41 (1993) 203-204.
- 5. AREVA Document No. 58-9217956-001, Passive ShutDown Seal (PSDS) for Reactor Coolant Pump, Qualification of the [ ] Results of the Aging and Corrosion Resistance Tests on [
].
- 6. [
]
- 7. PlasticsEurope, 2005, Guide for the Safe Handling of Fluoropolymer Resins, 3rd Edition, June 2005.
- 8. AREVA Document No. 38-9227846-000, Vitesse de rotation de la ligne darbre en phase dactivation du dispositive (lot E1), Note dAnalyse.
- 9. Framatome Document No. 38-9351062-000, Turkey Point NPP units 3 & 4, Passive Shutdown Seal model [ ], Qualification Report.
- 10. [
]
- 11. AREVA Document No. 58-9350783-000, Passive Shutdown Seal (PSDS) for Reactor Coolant Pump, Qualification of the [ ] Report of the aging and corrosion resistance tests of the [
].
Page 24
Document No.: 51-9227814-004 Passive Shutdown Seal - PRA Evaluation of Spurious Actuation APPENDIX A: [ ] TECHNICAL DATA SHEET Page A-1
Document No.: 51-9227814-004 Passive Shutdown Seal - PRA Evaluation of Spurious Actuation Page A-2
Document No.: 51-9227814-004 Passive Shutdown Seal - PRA Evaluation of Spurious Actuation Page A-3
Document No.: 51-9227814-004 Passive Shutdown Seal - PRA Evaluation of Spurious Actuation APPENDIX B: [ ] TECHNICAL DATA SHEET Page B-1
Document No.: 51-9227814-004 Passive Shutdown Seal - PRA Evaluation of Spurious Actuation Page B-2
Document No.: 51-9227814-004 Passive Shutdown Seal - PRA Evaluation of Spurious Actuation Page B-3
Document No.: 51-9227814-004 Passive Shutdown Seal - PRA Evaluation of Spurious Actuation APPENDIX C: FRAMATOME INC. RCP SEALS QA/QC REQUIREMENTS Page C-1
Document No.: 51-9227814-004 Passive Shutdown Seal - PRA Evaluation of Spurious Actuation Page C-2
Document No.: 51-9227814-004 Passive Shutdown Seal - PRA Evaluation of Spurious Actuation Page C-3
Document No.: 51-9227814-004 Passive Shutdown Seal - PRA Evaluation of Spurious Actuation Page C-4
Document No.: 51-9227814-004 Passive Shutdown Seal - PRA Evaluation of Spurious Actuation Page C-5
Document No.: 51-9227814-004 Passive Shutdown Seal - PRA Evaluation of Spurious Actuation Page C-6
Document No.: 51-9227814-004 Passive Shutdown Seal - PRA Evaluation of Spurious Actuation APPENDIX D: DOCUMENTATION OF SPREADSHEET USED TO DETERMINE PDF Page D-1
Document No.: 51-9227814-004 Passive Shutdown Seal - PRA Evaluation of Spurious Actuation Page D-2
Document No.: 51-9227814-004 Passive Shutdown Seal - PRA Evaluation of Spurious Actuation Page D-3