ML20211A998
| ML20211A998 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Cooper, Diablo Canyon  |
| Issue date: | 07/12/1999 |
| From: | Sutton K NEBRASKA PUBLIC POWER DISTRICT |
| To: | |
| Shared Package | |
| ML20211A957 | List: |
| References | |
| PSA-ES019, NUDOCS 9908240190 | |
| Download: ML20211A998 (160) | |
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. DRAFT July 12,1999 PROBABILISTIC SAFETY ASSESSMENT COOPER NUCLEAR STATION ENGINEERING STUDY '
RISKINFORMATION MATRIX RISK RANKING OF SYSTEMS BY IMPORTANCE MEASURE PSA-ES019 In support of NRC REGULATORY OVERSIGHT PILOT PROGRAM Signature / Date Preparation: Risk Management Senior Engineer Kent Sutton Review: Risk Management Senior Engineer Franz Markowski Approval: Risk Management l Revisions: Supervisor Rick Wachowiak
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c r Reviewed Approved Number Description By Date By Date DRAFT issue, For Comment I 9908240190 990812 PDR ADOCK 05000275 P PM ,
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. DRAFT July 12,1999
- 1. Introduction The results of the PSA model have been categorized for risk insights based on system, human error and recovery strategy by relative importance. These results are presented in the NRC RIM-2 format for Cooper Nuclear Station. This report documents CNS specific risk insights and was developed based on the results of the CNS 96a PSA model and IPEEE results.
- 2. Background As part of the NRC Reactor Oversight Program, risk information matrices (RIMS) are tools to be used in determining which activities, systems, or components are to be inspected in the baseline inspection program. The matrices are to be used, along with other generic and site specific information, in planning the baseline program at the beginning of each planning cycle, scheduling inspections within each inspection area, and during inspections by guiding the inspector to select the more risk-significant inspection samples.
- 3. Discussion The CNS total core damage ircquency is comprised of the sum of various sequence cutsets. The sequence cutsets are defimed as the prodcet of system functional failures (reactivity control, pressure control, core cooling, containment cooling, ect.) and an initiating event (loss of ofisite power, turbine trip, loss of service water, ect.). A typical sequence cutset can be represented as; CSsto = IE
- SF1cy,* SF2 cry
- SF3cy, (yr)
where: CS sto - PSA cutset core damage frequency for the sequence, IE - initiating event frequency for the sequence being investigated, SFlcr, - system functional failure probability caused by component failure x, SF2 cry - backup system functional failure probability caused by component failure y, SF3ct, - redundant backup system functional failure probability due to component failure z. For example, given that a DBA LOCA event occurs on loop A of RHR, and the sequence of failures that could lead to core damage are: IE - Large LOCA initiator (1.E-04/yr), SFlcr - LPCI loop B failed due to MOV 253 failed closed (3.E-03), SF2ce, - Core spray train A failed due to MOV 12A failed closed (3.E-03), SF3cri - Core spray train B out for test of maintenance (3.2E-03). CS sto - PSA cutset core damage frequency: 2.88E-12 / yr. The probability of core damage for this sequence of events is quantified to be 2.88E-12/yr. This sequence quantification process is repeated many times for the vadous system failure possibilities for all possible sequences resulting from all postulated initiators.
I DRAFT July 12,1999 The concept of an initiating event is easily understood, but is reiterated here in the context that it is used in the PSA model. An initiating event is an upset in plant power operations that leads to emergency conditions such that plant systems are used to return the reactor to the safe stable shutdown state. The sequence of events which lead to the safe stable state must be achieved and maintained within 24 hours following the initiating event. This is known as the "24 hour mission time" PSA modeling objective used to evaluate potential component failure modes which may challenge continued operation of equipment. To estimate outcomes beyond 24 hour mission time, introduces modeling uncertainty which would mask results due to limitations in predicting the impact of human actions. Liitiating events are plant specific, since some equipment failures can both result in upset plant conditions (results in eventual mactor scram) and by nature of the failure, render some plant systems and mitigating functions useless. As indicated above, the primary consideration following the initiating event is the availability and reliability of systems to mitigate the event. The front line systems credited for successful mitigation of core damage are limited to those utilized within existing plant procedures (EOPs and supporting abnonnal procedures.) In some instances where front line systems have failed, general recovery strategies were credited for system restoration due to the collective efforts of post-accident activities of the ERO. In addition, the systems credited for mitigation to each sequence are carefully selected based on best estimate thermal-hydraulic analysis of the ensuing upset plant conditions. For example, use of HPCI or RCIC for long tenn core cooling would not be viable for an initiator which causes depressurization of the RPV (stuck open SRV, large LOCA, etc.) The system failures modeled for each system include those components and support systems that are required for the system to successfully meet its credited function following various initiating events. To quantify system reliability, failure probabilities were estimated using available CNS data and industry information. Also included is the likelihood that the mitigating system and/or its suppon systems are unavailable at the time of the initiator. Equipment unavailability occurs during routine maintenance and periodic testing evolutions and is modeled in terms of fractional time per year. Therefore, each sequence is the frequency of the initiating event and the probability of failure of minimum system functions needed to prevent core damage. The sequence is made up of a number of"cutsets" that are unique sets of combinations that would have to occur in order to result in core damage.
- 4. Definitions Risk Achievement Worth -Impact of Event Failure Risk achievement wonh (or risk increase importance measure) provides a ranking of events by those most crucial to " maintaining safety" at the ewnt level. The imponance value for each event indicates the potential increase to the core dama9: frquency if the event conditional failure probability is quantified as 1.0 (certain event failure.) Thb wasure gives an indication of how much the core damage frequency can be increased (safety margin subdued or theoretical minima for system fault) if failure of an event was certain. The RAW importance ratio is defined as:
i
- t. DRAFT ' July 12,1999 uw imponance- ICSc,...fICS_, 1 where:
1 CSc,.i Sum of all sequence cutsets which contribute to the total estimated core damage frequency, if the system component failure probability of interest is increased to 1.0. 1 CSr.ii Sum of all sequence cutsets which contribute to the total estimated core damage
; frequency (CDF) for CNS. Current valui is 1.33E-05/yr for the %a model.
Fussell-Vesely - Impact of Event Success Fussell-Vesely impodance measure provides a tanking of events' by their contribution to the. core damage frequency by computing the potential to change the core damage frequency. The FV importance measure provides a ranking of events by those most crucial for " safety improvement" at the current level. The imponance value for each event indicates the potential reduction to the core damage frequency for the event. This measure gives an indication of how much the core damage frequency might be reduced (safety margin augmented or theoretical maxima for system success) if an event was assured to occur when required, or dependability is 1.0 (unavailability and unreliability are 0.) In addition,' the FV importance ranking provides the relative impact of declining system or component performance. The importance value for each event indicates the potential increase to the core damage frequency due to that events contribution. This measure gives an indication of how much the core damage frequency would be effected (safety margin reduction for a given decline in system performance) for conditions degrading system dependability. The FV imponance ratio is defined as: FV Imponance = 1 CS ,/ 2 CSr.i where: 1 CS, Sum of those sequence cutsets which contain failures for the system ofinterest.
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DRAFT July 12,1999
- 5. Matrix Footnotes
- 1. Core damage frequency ranking for each system is determined by adding all sequence frequencies containing at least one failure compon:nt of the system and dividing the sum by the total core damage frequency for CNS (1.33E-5/yr.) This importance measures the relative risk impact that Lwould be realized if the system dependability were to change. The CDF% numbers can be interpreted as the relative change that would be observed with changing system performance. In practice, this indicates how much risk reduction (or safety decrease) could be expected if the system were upgraded with more (downgraded with less) redundancy, diversity, quality, testing, maintenance, etc. Since multiple concurrent failures are associated with each core damage sequence, the sum of these percentages is not equal to 100%.
- 2. The system ranking using Risk' Achievement Worth is based on system component RAW values greater than 10. This is estimated based on setting the system component failure rate to 1.0, and comparing the new CDF to the original CDF. This criteria (RAW >10) is typical of system level evaluations for importance rankings focused on " safety maintenance" due to CDF impact.
- 3. The human error ranking, both pre-accident and post-accident errors, is based on individual actions which comprise >l.5% of total CDF. This criteria is typical ofcomnonent level l evaluat. ions for importance rankings focused on " safety improvement" due to CDF impact.
- 4. If the failure of the system has the potential to challenge the integrity of the reactor coolant pressure boundary or the primary containment, it is indicated in the Barrier column of the table by an RC or PC, respectively.
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l CNS Rick Signific nc3 D:t:rminrtion Screening initirl R2visw P!R # i COMPLETE ALL INITIAL REVIEW SECTIONS (1 A - 1C) Section1 A - Cornerstone Evaluation
- 1. Does the PIR aff act any Comerstone ?
initiebng Events Mihgahng Systems Barr6sr integrtt Emergency Preparedness Occupatonal Radalon Safet PublicRadalonSafet . Physical Protectio OYES
- A tover i Scr.en is Required. O uO = Co,enue 4 a
- 2. Does the PIR affect any Structure System or Component that is used as a compensatory measure in any open OD/OE OWA or TCC ?
yES # Conhnu h NO U onN Risk Significant, No Comerstone is Affected. ( 3. Does the open OD/OE, OWA or TCC affect any Comerskine ? Initiahng Events Mitigating Systems Barrier Integrit Emergency Preparedness l Occupatonal Radabon Safet Putdic Radaton Safet Physical Protectio OYES
- A tevei i Sc,een is Requi,ed. O uO = no,sRisk Significani, so Come,sione is A,iected.
l Section 1B - Cross Cutting issues Evaluation - Answer All Questions
- 4. Does the PtR indicate a programmatic breakdo.n in any area of the CAP process ?
O veS = Po,,orm an Appa,eni Cause Re, uO
- 5. Does the PIR indicate a condition of ineffectve or untmaly correctrve action foran RCR or SCR ?
l OYES = Perform an Apparent Cause Revew NO ? [ 6. Does the PIR identify a recumng human performance issue that .as previously a Conditon Adverse to Quality condson in the past 6 months ? OYES = Pe,,o,m an Apps,ent Cause Rev O uO
- 7. Does the PlH identify a human performance issue mat caused failure of equipment, tapures of multipio 10CFR50, Appendoc B criteria or result in personnelinjury ?
O <ES = Po, form an Appa,eni Cause Rev., O uO l- IF til Questions 4 through 7 are marked NO, then no Cross Cutting issues have been identified and no additional corrective acM6 ,~e luired for the Cross Cutting issues. If any Question 4 through 7 is marked YES, then process the PIR as directed. A L bUEST!ONS 1 THROUGH 7 ARE MARKED NO, PLACE THE PIR INTO THE NORMAL CAP PROCESS , l I Section 1C-Initial Evaluation Results O evei t 3 .;een neau,,ed. Po,,o, a teve,i Sc,een Beg,nning ,in Sachon 2 b RCR / Apparent Cause Review Required NormalCAP O Wo,kiiem noo CauseRevis. Oiner Cross Cutting issues identfed: b uman H Performance O CAP Safety Conscious Work Environment Comments: i l 6 l 1 Per,ormed By: (Pnnt) _ (Sign) Date Page 1 Rev H 7 / 9 / 99 4 3
F. Indiatina Events Mitraatina Svstems
.~ Turtune Tnp with Bypass instudy AvEtabi . ARI Turtune Tnp with Bypass initasy Unavailable (e g. Group I, Loss of .
Containment Vents Circ Water, Ruptured Condenser) . Core Spray
= Lossof Feedwater . HPCI
. Inadvertent Open Rehof Vahe . RCIC
. - Lossof Service / instrument Air .
REC (Quad Cooling,CRD Coohng) RCS Leak within Capacity of 1 CR0 pump . RHR LPCI, Containment Spreys, Torus Cooling. Shutdown Loss of Offstle Power with Emergency Transformer Availabi Coobng Loss of a 125VDC Dusen . RHR Service Water Booster Syolem (LPCI. Contaenment LOCA Outside Coc.taenment Sprays, Torus Coahng, Shuldown Coohng) Loss of Offsite Power with Emergency TranCormer Unavailabl . SBLC Lossof TECSystem . Service Wator (including Cross Tie to REC and Altemat
. Lossof NBPP inpchon
. Lossof REC System .
SRVs (Rehet Mode and Manual Actuaton) (Open & Closed)
. Lossof a 4160V AC Dvison . Torus to DrywsN Vacuum Brookers Small LOCA (RCIC has sufficsont mpadty and the break will not depressurize the RPV) .
Circ Wator (For Main Condenser Heat Removal)
. Loss of the ServiceWater System . Condensate / Feedwater Medium LOCA (HPCI has sufficient mpacity and the break wel not .
CRD Mechanical (including HCLTs)and Hydraulic (including depressunze the RPV)(Note 1) Flow to the RPV)
. - Large LOCA (RPV will depressunze via the break and allow LP .
InstrumentandService Air systems to anject pnor to core damage, and the LP system wil be abi . Main Condenser (As a Heat Sink) to refill me core above the top of fuel) (Note 2) . Main Turbine Bypass Vahes (Open -Main Condenser Heat
. Antacipated Transient without Scram (Note 3)
Remowel)
. Interfacing System LOCA .-
MSIVs (Open -Main Condenser Heat Removal) (Closed - DBA type LOCA (Double ended break of a Recirc Line) Primary Containmentintegrity) Vessel Ruptur . TEC Nuclear Boilerinstrumentation (Pressure, Level) Note 1:CNS PSA rev 96a evaluates rnodium LOCA, but latest analysis shows that
' breaks larger rien RCIC capaeny wdl depressunze the f1PV sarrular to the large . RPS LOCA . Emergency Diesel Generators 4160 VAC Essential & Non-Essenhal (For Equipment &
Note 2. The DBA type LOCA es e subset of this initiator and is categonzed Systems Listed Above) separatsey. A large LOCA wdl depressurire sloway (on the order of rmnutes rather . 125 VDC (For Equipmerit & Systems Listed Above) than seronas), allowing tne for the DGs to slow stait and otier non DBe. valves to . 250 VDC (For Equipment & Systems Liesed Above) realign LP systems . 120/240 VAC instrument Power (For Equipment & Systems Listed Abowe) Vote 3 ATWS is not reasy an initiator, tiut a can be treated as such for these . No-Break Power (For Equipment & Systems Listed Above) a ulyses . RPT Logic I l Page 2 Rev H 7 / 9 / 99
CNS Rick Signific ncs D;t rmin: tion Screening . Lcv:11 Screen PIR # Section 2 - Description Summ ry Description of issue / Condition: 1 1 SystIm(s) and/or Trains with Degraded Equipment: LicInsing Basis and/or Technical Specification Requirement Not Met: Maint: nance Rule Risk Significant: Yes No Tims Degraded Condtion Existed or Estimated to Exist: 1 i Section 3 - Cornerstones and Functions Affected / Degraded by the issue / Condition l (Mam each apphcab6e condmon) 3A -INITIATING EVENTS O Transient initiator contributor (e.g. Rx Scram, Turbine trip, Loss of Offsite Power, CSCS Initiation) O Primary System LOCA initiator contributor (e.g. RCS or Main Steam / Feedwater leaks or pipe degradation) 3B - MITIGATING SYSTEMS Cors D: cay Heat Removal O ECCS Systems (e.g. LPCI, CS, HPCl, RCIC) ! O BOP Systems (e.g. Main Condenser, Cond/ Feed, CRD) O Long Term Decay Heat Removal (e.g. Shutdown Cooling, SRVs, Torus Cooling) O R::ctivity Control (e.g. CRD, SLC, RwCu, RCIC) 3C - BARRIER INTEGRITY l O RCS LOCA Mitigation Boundary degraded (Unidentified Leakage > 25% TS Limit) l Primary Containmentintegnt i O Breach or Bypass of Primary Containment (e.g. PClV not isoIable) j O Heat Removal or Pressure Control degraded or not functional (e.g. drywell cooling, drywell / torus sprays, vent and purge capability) O Fuei Ciaddin9 de9raded (Also review Public Rad Safety Comerstone) Continue on Page 4 for additional Comerstone areas l Page 3 Rev H . 7 / 9 / 99 L
CNS Risk Significcnc3 D;t:rmin tion Screening Lcv;l 1 Screen PIR # Section 3 - Cornerstones and Functions Affected / Dngraded by the issue / Condition (continued) (Mark each appleatile condition) 3D - EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS VioIItion or Potential Violation of 10 CFR or of the Emergency Plan O Failure to meet or implement Planning Standards ( Refer to 10 CFR 50.47(b) and Appendix E) Probl:m identification issue O Failure to identify a problem duringa drill or exercise O Failure to resolve or resolve in a timely manner a problemidentified during a driti or exercise 3E - PUBLIC RADIATION SAFETY Rad Miterial Control O Radwaste Shipping Problem (This includes 10 CFR 61 requirements, shipping records, etc.) O Radwaste Processing (This includes sampling and characterization) O Contamination Monitors for material exiting the RCA Effluent Release Program - Gaseous and Liquid Effluents O Releases above 10CFR50, Appendix ! limits O unmonitored or potentiatry unmonitored releases O Effluent monitoring rad monitors and Count Room instrumentation operation and calibration (This includes venfication of ventilation flowrates) Environmental Monitonng Progra O Sample Collection, Measurement and Analysis O Caiibration and operations of Meteorological and Counting instrumentation 3F-OCCUPATIONAL RADIATION SAFET ALARA Progra O Actualjob dose greater than estimated (Actual exceeded Estimated by 25% or more) O unintended Contamination of a previousiy clean area unintended Exposure O Exposure of >50 mreminat is not intended Substantial Potential Exposure O violation of a Locked High Rad Area or Very High Rad Area (e.g. High Rad Door checks) Doss Assessment 0 inability to determine or assess dose O Radiation Monitoring instrumentation problems (including PAM instruments Containment Rad Monitors and ARMS) 3G - PHYSICAL PROTECTION I O Access Authorization O Access Control O Physical Protection Systems O Response to Contingene Continue to Page 5 for Level 1 Screening Page 4 - Rev H 7 / 9 / 99
CNS Risk SigniflC:nC3 D:t:rminctlOn SCrrning(Continued) Lev;l 1 Screen PIR # Section 4 - LEVEL 1 SCREENING PROCESS <uam anoxesinat appy from socion a) O INITIATING EVENT Ou TIGATING SYSTEMS O BARRIERINTEGRITY O EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS l 0 OCCUPATIONAL RADIATION SAFETY O PUBLICRADIATIONSAFETY O PHYSICAL PROTECTION O NONE l If mora than one Cornerstone is marked, a Level 2 screen is required. If NO Comerstone is affected, then the concem screens OUT as TaREEN". No further assessment is required. If onY one Comerstone is affected continue in the appropriate section below. , Section 4.A INITIATING EVEN
- 1. Do;s the issue / condition contribute to the likelihood of a Primary System LOCA?
OYES
- Level 2 Screen Required DNO # Continue O
- 2. Do;s the issue / condition contribute to both the likelihood of a reactor SCRA AND the likelihood that mitigation systems /
;quipmInt wilinot be available ?
OYES
- Level 2 Screen Required O NO # Screen OUT as GREEN Sectirn 4.B MITIGATING SYSTEMS
- 1. Do:s the issue / condition concern a Design or Qualification issue that is still Operable per GL 91-18 (rev 1) ?
OYES
- Screen OUT as GREEN ONO # Continue O
! 2. Does the issue / condition represent an actual Loss Of Safety Function of a Mitigating System ? OYES
- Level 2 Screen Required ONO # Continue #
l 3. Does the issue / condition concem TS equipment or systems ? I OYES # Continue to Ouestion 4 0 ONO # Continue to Question 5 0
- 4. Dots the issue / condition represent an actual Loss of Safety Function for a single train of a multi-train system for greater than TS LCO?
OYES
- Level 2 Screen Required ONO # Screen OUTasGREEN l S. Dois the issue / condition affect equipment designated as risk-significant under the Maintenance Rule ?
OYES
- Level 2 Screen Required O NO # Screen OUT as GREEN i Section 4.C BARRIER INTEGRITY
- 1. Do:s the issue / condition identify a failure or potential f ailure of the RCS boundar O ES Y
- Levei 2 Screen Required DNO # Continue O
- 2. Do:s the issue / condition concern fuel barrier integrity ?
Oves
- Screen Our due to the condition being monitored ONO # Continue 0 by the Performance Monitoring Progra .
- 3. Does the issue / condition concem a failure or potential failure of Primary Containment integrity ?
OYES
- Contact Risk Managementfor an evaluation. O NO
- Screen OUT as GREEN Continue to Page 6 for Level 1 Screening of additional Comerstone areas.
Page 5 - Rev H - 7 / 9 / 99
CNS Risk Signific:nca D:t:rmin ti n Screening (Continu:d) Lcv:11 Screen PIR # Section 4.D EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS
- 1. Do s the issue / condition concern identify a violation or potential violation of regulatory requirements for Emergenc Planning ?
Oves
- Level 2 Screen Required ONO # Continue O
- 2. Does the issue / condition identify a failure to implement or meet an Emergency Planning requirement during a dri!!/
;xercise or during a reai event ?
OYES # Levei 2 Screen Required ONO
- Continue O
- 3. Do:s the issue / condition identify either a failure to identify an Emergency Planning isroe OR resolve an identified Em:rgency Planning issue OR resolve an identified Emergency Planning issue in a timely fashion ?
OYES
- Levei 2 Screen Required O NO
- Screen OUT as GREEN.
Section 4.E PUBLIC RADIATION SAFETY
- 1. Does the issue / condition concern Rad Material Control 7 OYES
- Levei 2 Screen Required DNO N Contnue O
- 2. Does the issue / condition concern the Effluent Release Progra ?
OYES
- Level 2 Screen Required DNO # Continue O
- 3. Dois the issue / condition concern the Environmental Monitoring Program ?
OYES
- Level 2 Screen Required O NO # Screen OUTasGREEN.
Section 4.F OCCUPATIONAL RADIATION SAFETY
- 1. Do:s the issue / condition concern the ALARA program ?
OYES
- Level 2 Screen Required DNO
- Continue #
- 2. Does the issue / condition concern an Unintended Exposure ?
OYES
- Continue S ONO # Go to Ouestion 4 4
- 3. Did cn Overexposure occur ?
Oves
- Level 2 Screen Required DNO # Continue O
- 4. Does the issue / condition concem a Substantial Potential Exposure ?
Oves
- Level 2 Screen Required ONO # Continue 4
- 5. Do:s the issue / condition compromise the ability to assess dose ?
Oves = Screen our as WHITE D NO # Screen OUT as GREEN. Section 4.G PHYSICAL PROTECTION
- 1. Det:rmine the risk of Radiological Sabotage based on the issue / condition:
OSOME RISK # Levei 2 Screen Required OLOW RISK = Screen OUT as GREEN. Continue to Page 7 for Level 1 Screening Evaluation results. Page 6 Rev H 7 / 9 / 99
I CNS Risk Significznc] Det:rmin;ti::n Screening (Continued) Lcvel 1 Screen PIR # Section 5 - Level 1 Screening Results R:sult of Level 1 Screening Process: O Screen OUT as GREEN O evel L 2 Screen Required Lut essumptions made for the evaluation (as applicable): I l l l Section 6 - Cross Cutting issues Lut cny aspects of the PlR that may irnply a failure or degraded condition in any of the cross cutting issues: l (Mam allinatagh) O orrective C Action Progra O Human Performance O Safety Conscious Work Environment Sectinn 7 - Screening Performed By i Name: (Pnnt) (g;7) I I l Page 7 - Rev H . 7 / 9 / 99
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Table 5.7 (Same as SDP Table 1) Estimated Likelihood Rating for Initiating Event Occurrence During Degraded Period (taken from NUREG/CR-5499) Approx. Freq.~ - Example Event Type- Estimated Likelihood Rating
>1 per 1 - 10 yr Reactor Trip A B C Loss of condenser 1 per 10 - 102 yr Loss of Offsite Power B C D Totalloss of main FW Stuck open SRV (BWR)
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