ML20113E312
| ML20113E312 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Harris  |
| Issue date: | 01/15/1985 |
| From: | Urbanik T TEXAS A&M UNIV., COLLEGE STATION, TX |
| To: | |
| Shared Package | |
| ML20113E307 | List: |
| References | |
| OL, NUDOCS 8501230411 | |
| Download: ML20113E312 (7) | |
Text
l UNITED STATES OF AMERICA NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION BEFORE TFE A 0MIC SAFETY AND LICENSING BOARD In the Matter of
)\\
CAROLINA POWEP AND LIGHT COMPANY AND )
NORTH CAROLINA EASTERN MUNICIPAL
)
Docket Nos. 50-400 OL POWER AGENCY
)
50-401 OL
)
(Shearon Harris Fuclear Power Plant,
)
Units I and 2)
)
AFFIDAVIT OF THOMAS URBANIK II ON EPJ-1 I, Thomas Urbanik II, being duly sworn, depose and state:
-1.
I am Thomas Urbanik II, Associate Research Engineer and Program Manager, Texas Transportation Institute, Texas A&M University System, College Station, Texas.
2.
I was a principal author of NUREG/CR-17a5 " Analysis of
. Techniques for Estimating Evacuation Times for Emergency Planning Zones" (November-1980).
I also provided input to the development of current guidance for evacuation time estimate studies which appear in Appendix 4 to NUREG-0654, Revisior, 1, " Criteria for Preparation and Evaluation of Radiological Emergency Response Plans and Preparedness in Support of Nuclear Power Plants" (November, 1980). I have reviewed the initial evacuation time estimate study submittals of approximately 52 operating and near term nuclear facilities for the NRC in light of NUREG-0654, the results of which are published in NUREG/CR-1856 "An Analysis of Evacua-tion Time Estimates Around 52 Nuclear Power Plant Sites" (May, 1981).
8501230411 850116 PDR ADOCK 05000400
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3.
I am a subcontractor to Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratories which is responsible under contract to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for reviewing evacuation time estimate studies. A statement of my professional qualifications is attached.
4.
I have reviewed the Applicant's evacuation time estimate study (Evacuation Time Estimates for the Plume Exposure Pathway Emergency Planning Zone - Shearon Harris Nuclear Power Plant, HMM Associates, October 1983) against the guidance of NUREG-0654/ FEMA-REP-1, Revision 1.
In conducting my review, I considered various elements set forth in Appendix 4 to NUREG-0654/ FEMA-REP-1, Revision 1, which the NRC and FEMA believe should be included in evacuation time studies. These considera-tions include:
(a) an accounting for permanent, transient, and special facility populations in the plume exposure EPZ; (b) an indication of the traffic analysis nethod and the method of arriving at road capacities;
. (c) consideration of a range of evacuation scenarios cenerally repre-sentative of normal through adverse evacuation conditions; (d) consider-ation of confirmation of evacuation; (e) identification of critical links and need for traffic control; and (f) use of methodology and traffic flow modeling techniques for various time estimates, consistent with the guidance of NUREG-0654/ FEMA-REP-1, Revision 1, Appendix 4.
5.
The intent of NUREG n654, Appendix A Revision I concerning adverse weather conditions is to determine their effect on evacuation time estimates. Adverse weather conditions include conditions under which roadways have reduced speeds and capacities, but are still l
passable. The intent is to assure that the adverse weather scenario is appropriate to local conditions and considers the appropriate adverse weather conditions associated with the peak population. At Harris, the peak population occurs in the fall and the appropriate adverse weather condition is rain. The winter adverse weather time estimate associated with snow would be shorter than the fall adverse weather estinate. The reason the winter estinate is lass reflects the lower population during this time period.
It should be noted that the adverse conditions associated with snow conditions are those characterized by slick but passable roads. Under adverse conditions associated with snow and passable roads, the reduction in roadway capacity is equivalent to other adverse conditions such as rain.
6.
It should also be noted that local decisionmakers have the data necessary to assess conditions different from the base conditions provided in the evacuation time estimates. The intent of evacuation time estimates is to cover a range of scenarios such that the sensitivity of the roadway network can be assessed.
In the event of an accident, decisionmakers can make informed decisions concerning actual conditions.
For example, if a heavy snow was expected, and it would take four hours to clear the roads, ther decisionmakers would have to add-this additional time to the estimate.
7.
It is my opinion that the Applicant has given sufficient consideration to the effects of adverse weather conditions and that energency response decisionmakers have an adequate database upon which
to make decisions as to the feasibility of evacuation under a variety of conditions including a multitude of scenarios not explicitly addressed in the study.
- - _- h_ / _l _G i
Thomas Urbanik II Sworr to and subscribed before me this 15th day of January, 1985
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. Notary PubTic My Cordssion Expires:
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February 1984 8I0 GRAPHICAL DATA URBANIK II. THOMAS Program Manager, Texas Transportation Institute Lecturer, Civil Engineering Department, Texas A&M University Education Ph.D., Civil Engineering. Texas A&M University, 1982.
M.S., Civil Engineering, Purdue University, 1971.
B.S., Civil Engineering, Syracuse University, 1969.
B.S., Forest Engineering, State University of New York,1968.
Experience Program Manager Texas Transportation Institute, Texas A&M University System, 1983-Present.
Assistant Research Engineer, Texas Transportation Institute, Texas A&M University System, 1977-1933.
Lecturer, Civil Engineering, Texas A&M University,1982-Present.
Traffic Engineer, City of Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor, Michigan, 1972-1976.
Transportation Planning Engineer, City of Ann Arbor. Ann Arbor, Michigan, 1971-1972.
Research Assistant, Joint Highway Research Project, Purdue University, 1970-1971.
Professional Licenses Registered Professional Engineer, Texas and Michigan Memberships American Society of Civil Engineers Institute of Transportation Engineers Sigma Xi Chi Epsilon SIGNIFICANT REPORTS AND PUBLICATIONS Tmffic Engineering Speed / Volume Relationships on Texas Highways, State Department of Highways and Public Transportation, Research Report 327-2F, Austin, Texas, October 1983.
Priority Treatment of Buses at Traffic Signals. -Transportation Engi-neering, November 1977.
Priority Treatment of High-Occupancy Vehicles on Arterial Streets.
State Department of Highways and Public Transportation, Report 205-5, 1977.
Evaluation of Alternative Concepts for Priority Use of Urban Freeways in Tr xas,1977.
Driver Information Systems for Highway-Railway Grade Crossings. Highway Research Record Number 414, 1972.
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URBANIK II, THOMAS Page 2 Evacuation Plaming An Independent Assessment of Evacuation Times For a Peak Population Scenario in the Emergency Planning Zone of the Seabrook Nuclear Power Station, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NUREG/CR-2903, 1982.
CLEAR (Calculates Logical Evacuation And Response). A Generic Transportation Net-work Model for the Calculation of Evacuation Times Estimates U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NUREG/CR-2504 October 1981.
Analysis of Techniques for Estimating Evacuation Times for Emergency Planning Zones, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NUREG/CR-1745, 1980.
Analysis of Evacuation Times Around 52 Nuclear Power Plant Sites.
U.S.
Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NUREG/CR-1856 Volume 1,1980.
Hurricane Evacuation Demand and Capacity Estimation.
Florida Sea Grant College, Report Number 33, 1980.
Texas Hurricane Evacuation Study.
The Texas Coastal and Marine Coun-cil, 1978.
Pubtic Tmnaporkxtion Analysis of Rural Public Transportation in Texas.
State Department of Highways and Public Transportation. Technical Report 1069-1F, August 1982.
Intercity Bus Riders in Texas Transportation Research Record 887, 1982.
The Intercity Bus Industry in the U.S. and Texas. State Department of Highways and Public Transportation Technical. Report 0965-1F,1981.
Bryan-College Station Energy Contingency Study.
Metropolitan Planning Organization of Bryan-College Station,1980.
Bryan-College Station Transit Improvement Plan.
Metropolitan Planning Organization, 1979.
Ann Arbor Dial-A-Ride Project Final Report, Ann Arbor Transportation Authority, 1973.
Ann Arbor Dial-A-Ride Operations, Highway Research Board Special Report 136, 1973.
The Greater Lafayette Area Bus Transit Study. Joint Highway Research Project, Purdue University,1971.
KZderly and Nandicapped rmnsportation Evaluation of Selected Human Services Transportation Providers.
State Department of Highways and Public Transportation,1980.
Cost-Effectiveness of Accessible Fixed-Route Buses in Texas.
Technical Report 1061-1F, 1979.
Transportation of the Elderly and Handicapped in Texas:
A Case Study.
State Department of Highways and Public Transportation. Technical Report 1056-2F, 1979.
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URBANIK II, THOMAS page 3 Total Accessibility Versus Equivalent Mobility of the Handicapped.
Institute of Transportation Engineers, Compendium of Technical Papers, 49th Annual Meeting,1979.
Survey of Vehicles and Equipment for Elderly and Handicapped Trans,-
portation. State Department of Highways and Public Transporta-i tion, Technical Report 1056-1, 1978.
Corpus Christi Elderly and Handicapped Transportation Study. City of Corpus Christi Texas,1978.
Espert Witosess Presented expert testimony before the Atomic Safety and Licensing Board, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, concerning evacuation times at several nuclear power plant sites including Three-Mile Island.
Diablo Canyon Indian Point, Seabrook and Shoreham.
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