ML20080M163
| ML20080M163 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Issue date: | 02/29/2020 |
| From: | Gonzalez V, Joseph Kanney, Nadal-Caraballo N Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, US Dept of the Army, Corps of Engineers |
| To: | Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research |
| T. Aird | |
| Shared Package | |
| ML20080M135 | List: |
| References | |
| Download: ML20080M163 (9) | |
Text
Coastal Flooding PFHA Pilot Study Joseph Kanney*1, Norberto C. Nadal-Caraballo2, Victor M. Gonzalez2 1U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission 2U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 5th Annual PFHA Research Workshop NRC HQ, Rockville, MD February 19 - 21, 2020 1
Outline
- Objectives
- Tasks
- Status 2
Pilot Study Objectives
- Demonstrate PFHA for external flooding due to coastal flooding phenomena
- Include key mechanisms and features that make coastal flooding unique and challenging
- Storm surge
- Wind wave effects
- Riverine discharge
- Include propagation of aleatory and epistemic uncertainties
- Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis
- Inform development of PFHA guidance for coastal flooding scenario 3
Tasks
- Task 1 - Site Selection
- Focus on coastal areas and adjoining watersheds that are representative of settings where NPPs could be sited
- Priority on areas for which existing hydrodynamic (storm surge), hydrologic and hydraulic models (riverine discharge) are available
- Leverage studies in Coastal Hazard System (CHS)
- Task 2 - Data Collection and Analysis
- Climate and precipitation information
- Historical information on extratropical and tropical storms affecting the region
- Available water level observations (e.g. river discharge, tides)
- Site and watershed information
- Hydrodynamic, hydrologic and hydraulic models 4
Tasks (Cont.)
- Task 3 - Review and Selection of Probabilistic Modeling Approach and Methods
- Select an overall probabilistic modeling approach and methods for probabilistic modeling of specific processes.
- Task 4 - Construct inputs for Hydrodynamic, Hydrologic and Hydraulic Modeling
- Probabilistic space-time inputs to the hydrodynamic, hydrologic, and hydraulic models used in the study.
- Aleatory model for stochastic aspects of these processes
- Characterization and quantification of epistemic uncertainties (e.g. model structure and parameter uncertainties).
5
Tasks (Cont.)
- Task 5 - Hydrodynamic, Hydrologic, and Hydraulic Modeling
- The types of simulations based on the outcome of the assessment performed in the previous tasks. Options are:
- Full leverage of existing CHS data and no H&H modeling
- Full leverage of existing CHS data with hydraulic modeling
- Partial leverage of existing CHS data. ADCIRC and hydraulic modeling (soft-coupling) of subset of storms
- Full coastal and H&D modeling (full-coupling) of full JPM storm suite
- Task 6 - Construct Final Hazard Curves
- Hazard curves for selected flooding hazards (e.g., still water level, total waters level, forces).
- Uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis 6
Tasks (Cont.)
- Task 7 - Peer Review
- In-process peer review
- Task 8 - Knowledge Transfer
- Presentations and seminars, technical letter reports, final report 7
Status
- Tasks 1, 2, 3, 7, 8 in progress
- Tasks 1-3 expected completion 07/2020
- Tasks 7,8 ongoing throughout project
- Tasks 4,5 - expected completion 03/2021
- Task 6 - expected completion 07/2021
- Project completion expected 12/2021 8
Contact Information NRC PM: Joseph Kanney Email: joseph.kanney@nrc.gov Phone: +1 301-415-1920 PNNL PI: Norberto Nadal-Caraballo Email: Norberto.C.Nadal-Caraballo@usace.army.mil Phone: +1 601-634-2008 9