ML19340E346

Staff Requirements Memo Re Affirmation Session 80-54 on 801211 Concerning SECY-80-448.Proposed Explanatory Narrative & Proposed Rule Should Be Revised as Specified. Marked-up Pages Encl

ML19340E346
Person / Time
Issue date:	12/15/1980
From:	Chilk S NRC OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY (SECY)
To:	Dircks W NRC OFFICE OF THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR FOR OPERATIONS (EDO)
Shared Package
ML19340E347	List: ML19340E346 ML19340E349 ML19340E352
References
REF-10CFR9.7 M80121C, NUDOCS 8101140111
Download: ML19340E346 (13)

Text

4 IN RESPONSE REFER T0: M801211C

- A* O Rion o

UNITED STATES k

7,;.g}di NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION

) 9.,

-C W ASHIN GTON, D.C. 20555 o,,

E December 15, 1980 OFFICE OF THE D

,'s }

SECRETARY

]

fn a"

i-hj n.

o, ry MEMORANDUM FOR: William J. Dircks, Executive sd D

Director for Operation ~

"b]"

2 23

~$

Samuel J. Chilk, Secrep] I b

FROM:

g 3

g

SUBJECT:

EXCERPT OF STAFF REQUILEM TS - AFFIRMATION SESSION 80-54, 3:10 P.M., THURSDAY, DECEMBER 11, 1980, COMMISSIONERS' CONFERENCE ROOM, D.C. OFFICE (OPEN TO PUBLIC ATTENDANCE)

I.

SECY-80-448 - Proposed Narrative Explanation of Table S-3 The Commission by a vote of 3-0 (Commissioner Gilinsky abstaining) approveC a proposed explanatory narrative for Table S-3, Table of Uranium Fuel Cycle Environmental Data, and a proposed rule announcing the publi-cation of the draft narrative and conditions for the Table's use.

Commissioner Bradford concurred in part and dissented in part, as noted in his separate views.

The Commission requested that staff revise the proposed explanatory narrative and proposed rule as follows:

a.

page 8 of the proposed rule should be revised to reflect the following paragraph modified to include an exception for radon and technetium:

No further consideration of fuel cycle impacts addressed by the table and the narrative would be required or allowed in individual licensing proceedings.

Table S-3 and the material in the narrative would be referenced as support for a generic conclusion that these fuel cycle impacts cannot affect significantly the cost-benefit balance for a reactor.

(NMSS) (SECY Suspense:

1/26/80) b.

modify p.3ge 4 of the narrative as indicated in Attachment 1; c.

delete page 10, beginning with Section E, through page 26 of tne narrative (references on pages 27-28 should be modified accordingly);

d.

revise the discussion on page 57 of the narrative making clear that the tendency to overestimate effects resulting from use of the linear hypothesis applies only to the low-LET radiation. A discussion should be added similar to that on page 5, first paragraph, in the 7/14/80 memo, W. Dircks to Commissioner Bradford; 8101140

l I

William J. Dircks 2

December 15, 1980 e.

page 59 of the narrative should be revised to include the probability of risk associated with operating reactors and projected reactors over their lifetimes; f.

clarify or delete the following statement found on page 68 of the narrative:

"After 100,000 years, the waste in the repository presents no greater hazard than the criginal materials charged to the reactor.";

g.

modify pages 70-78 of the narrative as indicated in Attachment 2; and h.

the numbers from staff's table titled " Estimated Risks of Cancer and Genetic Effects" (Attachment 3) should be included in the narrative.

The numbers should be changed to be consistent with the capacity factor used in the narrative.

Commissioner Bradford noted that he will be providing separate views which will be available at least three days before the deadline for publication.

cc:

Chairman Ahearne Commissioner Gilinsky Commissioner Hendrie Commissioner Bradford i

Commission Staff Offices PDR e

4 l

I i

l i

b l

i

4 uranium as mixed oxide fuel.

The residual radioactive materials are wastes.

The wide scale use of this mode of operation was under considera-7 tion in the Commission's GESM0 proceeding.

I I

The ommission had been in the process of determining whether or not the w scale us of mixed oxide fuel in light water reactors should be auth ized (GESMO proce ing) when President Carter published his "Stateme on Nuclear Power Policy" on pril 7, 1977.

After consideration of the4 xecutive Branch's and the public's co, ents, the Commission decided (42 5334, December 30, 1977) that, among othe things, it would:

o Terminate the GESMO raceedin.

o Terminate the proceedi s

n pending or future plutonium recycle-related licensing ap icat'ons, except for --

(a) proceedings n licenses r the fabrication or use of small quanti 'es of mixed oxide f for experimental purposes, and (b) th e portions of proceedings fch involve only spent fuel storage, disposal of existing wast or decontamination or decommissioning of existing plants.

Reexamine the above matters at a later date.

/

thatyereareonlytwoLWRfuel c rc: cit cf the CO--isticr'e darician 4 5 n

cycles pot.entially. licensable for wide scale use in the United States at this t

l l

time:

the once-through cycle, and the uranium-only recycle fuel cycle.

The back end steps of these two fuel cycles are considered in NUREGs-0116 and

-0216, and the larger environmental effect of the two fuel cycles is included in l

l l

7*

ATI7GE:NT 2 70 1.

Calculation of Doise Commit.ments To calculate co n commitments anc nesi:r effects over long *.

e perices, c.;

must:

(a) predict the population at risk; (b) model the time-dependent behavior of the nuclide in the environment; and (c) credict the response of the occulation to the exposure in terms of cancer mortality and genetic defects, a.

Population at Risk In considering population'at risk ever time periods of 100,000 years or more, several gross. assumptions must be made.

Realistically, geologic history would predict several catastrophes such as ice ages (as many as 10 might occur over 250,000 years)11 and large fluctuations in population might be expected to be caused by such catastrophes.

The staff, for want of a better rationalization, has assumed a. stable world population of 10 billion for the first 10,000 years of exposure, with periodic variations of population of from 2 billion to 10 billion as a function of' time beyond 10,000 years.

Further, the U.S. popula-tion was assumed to be a constant 3% of the world population, f

b.

Models of Nuclide Behavior l

(1)

Carbon-14 The GESMO and 5-3 hearing record do not contain a model that adequately predicts l

the behavior of carbon-14 in the environment over long time perioos.

The GESMO model (RAEGAD) can be used to estimate the dose commitment to the U.S.

population from the initial passage of carbon-14 before it mixes in the world's 12 The carbon-14 model develcped by Killough can be modified, carbon pool.

using the population variations given above, to obtain long-term dose commitments.

71

~

.(O Iodine-129 Appendix C, Section 3.0 of NUKEG-0216 provides an. adequate mocel for estimating long-term peculation doses from iodine-129.

The GESMO model (RABGAD) can be used for estimating the U.S. population dose resulting from the initial passage of the iodine-129 prior to mixing in the world pool of stable iodine.

For the

-12 long-term, the model assumed for the S-3 hearings results in 1.1 x 10 rem / year /Ci to each person in the world after the mixing occurs, with the annual dose-rate declining with a half-life of 17 million years.

Al though removal mechanisms probably exist which would result in an environmental half-life much less then the 17 million year radiological half-life, the environmental half-life was conservatively taken to be the radiological half-life.

This conservatism is prudent until better long-term iodine models are developed.

c.

Response t'o Exposure 1

In considering response of the population to exposure to' radioactive nuclides, the staff has no basis to choose any responses other than those estimated 6

6 currently--135 cancer deaths /10 person.-rem, and 258 genetic defects /10 13 E

I

(

person-rem.

I n attempt to consider the potential effects o

. ances in l

r--technology, three scenarl were used:

no cure for cer or genetic defects; a possible cure for cancer and gen

~.ects in 1000 years; and a poss'ible cure for cancer or geneti

.ects in 100 y _ c."

l "For purp of this narrative, a " cure" for cancer means

'res for the various type i cancer or methods for their preventien.

In the case

' genetic cefects, means methods for either correcting them or ::reventing their e.

^ession.

4 L

O I

72

)

2.

Numerical Estimates of Ocs4 O mmitments and Health Effec 3 The model described aoove, Geeeeee. with tne assumotions oelineateo for population and population response to exposure have been used to calculate long-term dose commitments resulting from carbon-14 anc iodine-129 releases.

The values are given in Table I (carbon-14) and Table II (iodine-129).

It can be seen from Table I that integrating carbon-14 dose commitments over 10,000 years captures essentially the total potential person-rem. dose commitments from carbon-14.

These data indicate that the total U.S. population exposure to infinity is perhaps 3-4 times the first pass ex'posure and the potential infinite world population exposure is perhaps 8 times the first pass world population exposure.

' c ---

r : i; f.

.d, c,umulative excess cancer mortalities /RRY of about 0.06 (U.S.) and 1 (world) might be predicted from the carbon-14 releases.[Ifa.ca r cure is effected in 1000 ye s, the ext s

cancer me talitie RRY would peak at

+ 0.02 (U.S.) and 0.3 (wo A

cancer cur 100 years wou'..

1mit excess cancer mortali

/RRY to about

.02 L(U.S.)~end 0.1 (world).

A cumu'lative total of about 0.1 (U.S.) and 3 (world) genetic defects /RRY would be predicted to result over a period of 100,000 years from the carbon-14. released.

If preventi.on of ge tic defects were

\\possiblein1000- ars; the cu lative gen + c defects /RRY w d be a t 0.05 (U.S.) a (world); with preven J in 100 years, the cumul

've. netic

\\

defect./ RRY woulc e about 0.0. (U.S.) and

.2 (world).

g I

r It can be seen from Tacle II that the dose commitments from iocine-129 :entinue to ircrease with time, even beyond 250,000 years.

Since the model does not incorporate any removal mechanism other than radioactive decay (17 million l

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Table II Population Dose Commitments and Potential llcalth Effects for 1.3 Ci/IIRY Release of I-129 from a llLW llepository ko,-Cttre-foa:-Ganeemr 1Be.dk 'k fEh Iime Cumulative Person-Rem

. Ctmulative Genetically _ Signi icani (years)

(total body risk equivalent)*

Poptilation Dose (or0an-rem)

U.S.**

World**

U.S.***

Warid***

100 31 40 4.4

'2. 4 123' 4.7 l'i 1,000 34 10,000 60 950 7.5 109 100,000 175 4800 20.2 b lil

\\

250,000 390 12,000 43.9 1320 y

Ctmulative Cancer Hortalig,

Ctmulative_,Ge:1 etic Ef(fct.s U.S.

World U.S.

World 100 0.0042 0.0054 0.0011 0.0014 1,000 0.0046 0.017 0.0012 0.0039 10,000 0.0081 0.13 0.0019 0.028 0.0052 6.14 100,000 0.024 0.65 250,000 0.053 1.6 O.011 0.34

_ _ _, lotal lindy dose equivalent is the sta of the total body dose and each organ dose multiplied 1/ the r.iLin of the mortality risk per organ rem to the mortality risk per person rem (total foody).

AA l'irst Pass Dose = 31 person rem whole body risk equivalent AAA I irst l'.c.s Or0an Dose 4.4 organ-rem a

75 year half-life'), the calculati ns coule, in theory. :e uten ac 200 m.iiij:n y:. : :r :: t: :a:tura thi t:::1 d:sa ::m..! tsar.ts cf i d r.e-120.

7.

• 3 e.a s

' een doce for the present treatment.

(A discussien of the sig5ificance :f long-time calculations is given in Section 3. below.)

The data in Table II show that the 250,000 year dose ccmmitments (whcle bocy risk equivalent) fror iodine-129 (390 U.S. and 12,000 world person-rem /RRY) are about equal to the 100,000 year (infinite) dose commitments from carbon-14 (a40 U.S. and 11,000 world person-rem /RRY).

Cumulative excess cancer mortalities /RRY for a 250,000 year exposure are about 0.05 (U.S.) and 2 (world);

~

cumulative genetic defects /RRY (250,000 year) are about 0.01 (U.S.) and 0.3 (world).

'if a neer cure were achieved 1000 years hence, excess cance ortalities/RRY[

from iodine m.

ould be limited to about 0.005 (

and 0.02 (world).

For l

4 cancer cure in 100 year,

cess cancee..ortalities/RRY from iodine-129 would peak at about 0.004 (U.S no n5 (world).

If prevention of genetic 1000 years, genetic de.

+ /RRY would total about defects were possib1 l

0.001,(U.S and 0.004 (world); if genetic defects were pr table in 100 (yeas.geneticdefects/RR would total about 0.001 (U.S. and world).

3.

The Significance of Long-Term Dose Commitments In the above section, at the direction of the Commission, the staff has provicec theoretical mathematical calculations for dose commitments and health effects of caroon-14 and iodine-129 for up to 250,000 years.

In order to perform l

l l

t 76 thesecalculations,thestaffhashadtomakeaseriesofass.umotionsb'a5ec ucon little founoation anc in wnien it nas little or no conficence.

Because of the shortness of human life expectancy relative to the much slower changes occurring on earth, such as variations in climate, continental drift, erosion and evolution of species, it is difficult to comprehend the immensity of potential changes over long periods of time.

For comparatively short-lived isotope's, dose commitment integrations can be projected for what amounts to infinite time intervals.

For examp1e, an. infinite time integration of population dose can be done for tritium or krypton-85 since such a time integration effectively requires consideration of a period of about 100 years or less.

However, projecting population at risk, and population response to risk over even such relatively short time' intervals requires many assumptions which the staff has reason to question.

It is possible, for example, to reasonably postulate the following occurrences during the next 100 years:

major changes in the size of the pooulation at

'm n e n'f c e {

risk because of war or global starvation; n :po rtant

f;.

--~~t'...ei

...n r de velopmfnt s; nd pm:t': d;f;; n ; the onset of the " greenhouse" effect; the depletion of oil, natural gas and mineral resources.

Any of these occurrences may have significant effects on worldwide conditions and affect the validity of calculated dose commitments and related health effects.

that the response LI In ac..'a to changes in the environment, it is also -

of man to exposure to r

.' *4 n wi

..cnge either up or cown in tne future.

It is thought provoki, so compare the ma p

-ealth risks in today's America la i

with -

se at the turn of the last century.

U.S. vita detics show tnat 1

u

/

=

77 J

i. a period c'f only 70 years, menumental changes have cccurrec in ma j b.sa'tn treas.

Cc evt.rple,

e expectancy 1: ':i-tr.zs 4.cr?zse l :.

0 y::. : ::

65.3 yea for non-white Americans and from 47.3 years to 70.9. ears for white Americans.

his translates to a perceived increased risk o cancers and cardiovascular iseases in recent years simoly because m e people are living longer than befor and therefore, have a greater pr bility of contracting such diseases which cur primarily in the later ye6rs of life.

In addition, both cance-s qd cardiovascular iseases have also tended to increase because of advances \\'n the care, reatment and prevention of many other serious diseases.

Since the to 1 lif ime risk of mortality is 1 for everyone,

when the statistical probability fo mortality from a given cause declines, other probabilities must increas r example, consider the following changes in death rates for major diseMes since he t,cginning of this century:

Change in Risk of Cause of Death Deaths /100.000.coulation Mortality by 1970 1900 N

1970 Tuberculosis 194.4 2.6 factor,of 75 lower Typhoid & Paratyph.gid Fever 31.3

\\0.05 600

\\

Diphtheria 40.3 0105 800

\\

l Cancer 64.0 162.

2.5 higher Major Cardio ascular &

Renal iseases 345.2 496.0 1.4 Influenza s Pneumonia 202.2 30.9 6.5 lower Gastrit',, Duodenitis, E teritis & Colitis 142.7 0.6 240 Acci nts (including motor vehicle) 72.3 56.4 l.3 0* er major diseases 58.4 35.1 1.7 VERALL:

1,150.8 784.4 factor of 1.

lower

78

)

inus,

't 'e cient :nat tne errective ::nte:1 Or eliminst;;. or many diseasas

[

1 i

.' vnien, in :ne eginning c ' :ne :.tentietn car.tury, typi _!!y..ere fa a: :afere

(

i l

people reached an ge ahere the risk of cancer oryaroiovascular disease woulo have become significa t has at least partially /esulted in an apparent increase i

in such diseases by 1970.

It is also clea, however, that the overall risk of i

mortality by major causes in 'he U.S.

s declined by about one-third in only the last 70 years.

As a result, might speculate that there may be an

" epidemic" of people dying frog 'o1

ge" in the centuries ahead from causas that are little kncwn or r e by today s\\ standards.

Changes similar to ose which have largely occo red in the past as the result of dramatic medi l discoveries may occur as sciencescontinues to seek and N

discover mora effective ways of curing or preventing cancer in the years x

ahead.

T future radiological impact of the nuclear fuel cle can be affectec by su, research since latent cancer is the only known serious esult of human radiation exposures received at dose rates which do not result in rly mortalit.

The staff is unable to make any de'finitive statements about the possible l

variations in the long-term dose commitments and health effects resulting from t

potential future happenings.

However, the staff believes that the cumulative combined impacts from long-lived radionuclides such as carbon-14 and iocine-129 are small relative to those from natural background radiation, wnicn is about 100,000 billion person rem (world) over a 250,000 year total, i.e., less than about 10' percent of those impacts resulting from natural background radiation.

l

-w

, ~ -

-r,r-

O ESTIMATED RISKS OF CANCER AND GENETIC EFFECTS +

100-Year EOC**

10,000-Year EDCa**

Net

• Cancer incidence of Cancer Incidence of GWe Mortali ty Genetic Ef fects Mortali ty Genetic Effects Reference Reactor 24 3

4 4

5 O

170 Licensed LWRs - 70 900 '-

100 160 140 LWRs Deing Duilt - 95 1875 210 330 200 350 LWRs Tentatively Planned - 25 530 60 90 80 100 Currently Projected - 190 3305 370 500 500 620 1

i Natural Occurrence 60 x 106 25 x 106 60 x 108 25 x 10e

~

(300 million population)

Percent Increase Over Natural 6 x 10-4 2 x 10-3 0 x 10-6 2 x 10-5 e

+ Excludes mining and milling radon effluents

• 30-year,li fe at 0.6 C.F.

• • Environmental Dose Commitment

• • • Increase results primarily from long-life C-14 and I-129 ef fluents j

4

.