ML13007A078

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Kld TR-495, Rev. 2, Beaver Valley Power Station Development of Evacuation Time Estimates, Cover Through Page 1-14
ML13007A078
Person / Time
Site: Beaver Valley
Issue date: 12/20/2012
From:
KLD Engineering, PC
To:
Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
References
L-12-441 KLD TR-495, Rev 2
Download: ML13007A078 (53)
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Text

Enclosure A L-12-441 Beaver Valley Power Station Development of Evacuation Time Estimates (593 Pages Follow)

ZIsKLDV Beaver Valley Power Station Development of Evacuation Time Estimates Work performed for FirstEnergy, by: KLD Engineering, P.C.43 Corporate Drive Hauppauge, NY 11788 mailto:kweinisch@kldcompanies.com December, 2012 Final Report, Rev. 2 KLD TR -495 SIGNATURE LIST PirstEneigy NuwqJear Operettng Company Manager BeaverVaeiey, Emergency ResponSe c PennsytvaWia State Emergency Minagment Office J. I?-- Is-21 Date Date.Ohio State amergert6y Management Cffliea of /ZZ" wiý r- ----"k ýe onla Emerg Pment WOce Beaver~9 Emergency J nagament Office Date Beam Valley PawerStaeon Iiwcpotlon Thme tlanwte KID Mvnealnerhq P.C.,Rw. 2 oluambidnaaCoun~merg'ef Management Agency Date QPAQJd.., .1:- V-12 H6(wck Countif 'rgency Management Agency Date KID Engineering, P.C -Lead Analyst bate KLD Engineering, P.C -Senior Project Manager DIZL4lt.Date Beaver Valley Power Station Evacuation rime Estimate KID Engineering, P.C-Rev. 2 Table of Contents I INTRODUCTION

..................................................................................................................................

1-1 1.1 Overview of the ETE Process ......................................................................................................

1-2 1.2 The Beaver Valley Pow er Station Location ................................................................................

1-4 1.3 Prelim inary Activities

.................................................................................................................

1-6 1.4 Com parison w ith Prior ETE Study ..............................................................................................

1-9 2 STUDY ESTIM ATES AND ASSUM PTIONS .............................................................................................

2-1 2.1 Data Estim ates ...........................................................................................................................

2-1 2.2 Study M ethodological Assum ptions ..........................................................................................

2-2 2.3 Study Assum ptions .....................................................................................................................

2-5 3 DEM AND ESTIM ATION .......................................................................................................................

3-1 3.1 Perm anent Residents

.................................................................................................................

3-2 3.2 Shadow Population

....................................................................................................................

3-8 3.3 Transient Population

................................................................................................................

3-11 3.4 Em ployees ................................................................................................................................

3-16 3.5 M edical Facilities

......................................................................................................................

3-20 3.6 Total Dem and in Addition to Perm anent Population

..............................................................

3-20 3.7 Special Event ............................................................................................................................

3-20 3.8 Sum m ary of Dem and ...............................................................................................................

3-22 4 ESTIM ATION OF HIGHW AY CAPACITY ................................................................................................

4-1 4.1 Capacity Estim ations on Approaches to Intersections

..............................................................

4-2 4.2 Capacity Estim ation along Sections of Highw ay ........................................................................

4-4 4.3 Application to the Beaver Valley Pow er Station Study Area .....................................................

4-6 4.3.1 One-Lane Roads .................................................................................................................

4-6 4.3.2 M ulti-Lane Highw ay ...........................................................................................................

4-6 4.3.3 Freew ays ............................................................................................................................

4-7 4.3.4 Intersections

......................................................................................................................

4-8 4.4 Sim ulation and Capacity Estim ation ..........................................................................................

4-8 5 ESTIM ATION OF TRIP GENERATION TIM E ..........................................................................................

5-1 5.1 Background

................................................................................................................................

5-1 5.2 Fundam ental Considerations

.....................................................................................................

5-3 5.3 Estim ated Tim e Distributions of Activities Preceding Event 5 ...................................................

5-6 5.4 Calculation of Trip Generation Tim e Distribution

....................................................................

5-12 5.4.1 Statistical Outliers ............................................................................................................

5-13 5.4.2 Staged Evacuation Trip Generation

.................................................................................

5-17 5.4.3 Trip Generation for Recreational Areas ...........................................................................

5-18 6 DEM AND ESTIM ATION FOR EVACUATION SCENARIOS

.....................................................................

6-1 7 GENERAL POPULATION EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES (ETE) ..........................................................

7-1 Beaver Valley Power Station i KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2

7.1 Voluntary

Evacuation and Shadow Evacuation

.........................................................................

7-1 7.2 Staged Evacuation

......................................................................................................................

7-1 7.3 Patterns of Traffic Congestion during Evacuation

.....................................................................

7-2 7.4 Evacuation Rates ........................................................................................................................

7-4 7.5 Evacuation Tim e Estim ates (ETE) Results ...................................................................................

7-4 7.6 Staged Evacuation Results .........................................................................................................

7-5 7.7 Guidance on Using ETE Tables ...................................................................................................

7-6 8 TRANSIT-DEPENDENT AND SPECIAL FACILITY EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

.............................

8-1 8.1 Transit Dependent People Dem and Estim ate ............................................................................

8-2 8.2 School Population

-Transit Dem and .........................................................................................

8-4 8.3 Special Facility Dem and .............................................................................................................

8-4 8.4 Evacuation Tim e Estim ates for Transit Dependent People .......................................................

8-5 8.5 Special Needs Population

.........................................................................................................

8-10 8.6 Correctional Facilities

...............................................................................................................

8-11 9 TRAFFIC M ANAGEM ENT STRATEGY ...............................................................................................

9-1 10 EVACUATION ROUTES ......................................................................................................................

10-1 11 SURVEILLANCE OF EVACUATION OPERATIONS

..........................................................................

11-1 12 CONFIRM ATION TIM E ......................................................................................................................

12-1 List of Appendices A. GLOSSARY OF TRAFFIC ENGINEERING TERM S ..............................................................................

A-1 B. DTRAD: DYNAMIC TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT AND DISTRIBUTION MODEL ........................................

B-1 C. DYNEV TRAFFIC SIM ULATION M ODEL ..........................................................................................

C-1 C.1 M ethodology

..............................................................................................................................

C-5 C.1.1 The Fundam ental Diagram ............................................................................................

C-5 C.1.2 The Sim ulation M odel ........................................................................................................

C-5 C.1.3 Lane Assignm ent ..............................................................................................................

C-12 C.2 Im plem entation .......................................................................................................................

C-12 C.2.1 Com putational Procedure

................................................................................................

C-12 C.2.2 Interfacing with Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTRAD) ..............................................

C-15 D. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF STUDY PROCEDURE

..........................................................................

D-1 E. SPECIAL FACILITY DATA ......................................................................................................................

E-1 F. TELEPHONE SURVEY ...........................................................................................................................

F-1 F.1 Introduction

...............................................................................................................................

F-1 F.2 Survey Instrum ent and Sam pling Plan .......................................................................................

F-2 F.3 Survey Results ............................................................................................................................

F-4 F.3.1 Household Dem ographic Results ...........................................................................................

F-4 F.3.2 Evacuation Response .............................................................................................................

F-9 Beaver Valley Power Station 1i KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 F.3.3 Tim e Distribution Results .................................................................................................

F-11 F.4 Conclusions

..............................................................................................................................

F-14 Attachm ent A: Telephone Survey Instrum ent .................................................................................

F-15 G. TRAFFIC M ANAGEM ENT PLAN .....................................................................................................

G-1 G.1 Traffic Control Points ................................................................................................................

G-1 G.2 Access Control Points ................................................................................................................

G-1 H EVACUATION REGIONS .....................................................................................................................

H-1 J. REPRESENTATIVE INPUTS TO AND OUTPUTS FROM THE DYNEV II SYSTEM ...................................

J-1 K. EVACUATION ROADW AY NETW ORK .............................................................................................

K-1 L. SUB-AREA BOUNDARIES

....................................................................................................................

L-1 M .EVACUATION SENSITIVITY STUDIES ............................................................................................

M -1 M .1 Effect of Changes in Trip Generation Tim es .......................................................................

M -1 M.2 Effect of Changes in the Number of People In the Shadow Region Who Relocate .................

M-2 M .3 Effect of Changes in EPZ Resident Population

.........................................................................

M -3 N. ETE CRITERIA CHECKLIST

...................................................................................................................

N-1 Note: Appendix I intentionally skipped iii KLD Engineering, P.C.Beaver Valley Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate iii KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 List of Figures Figure 1-1. Beaver Valley Power Station Location ....................................................................................

1-5 Figure 1-2. BVPS Link-Node Analysis Network ........................................................................................

1-10 Figure 2-1. Voluntary Evacuation M ethodology

.......................................................................................

2-4 Figure 3-1. BV PS EPZ .................................................................................................................................

3-3 Figure 3-2. Permanent Resident Population by Sector .............................................................................

3-6 Figure 3-3. Permanent Resident Vehicles by Sector .................................................................................

3-7 Figure 3-4. Shadow Population by Sector .................................................................................................

3-9 Figure 3-5. Shadow Vehicles by Sector ...................................................................................................

3-10 Figure 3-6. Transient Population by Sector .............................................................................................

3-14 Figure 3-7. Transient Vehicles by Sector .................................................................................................

3-15 Figure 3-8. Em ployee Population by Sector ............................................................................................

3-18 Figure 3-9. Em ployee Vehicles by Sector ................................................................................................

3-19 Figure 4-1. Fundam ental Diagram s ..........................................................................................................

4-10 Figure 5-1. Events and Activities Preceding the Evacuation Trip ..............................................................

5-5 Figure 5-2. Evacuation M obilization Activities

........................................................................................

5-11 Figure 5-3. Comparison of Data Distribution and Normal Distribution

.......................................................

5-15 Figure 5-4. Comparison of Trip Generation Distributions

.......................................................................

5-20 Figure 5-5. Comparison of Staged and Un-staged Trip Generation Distributions in the 2 to 5 M ile Region ...........................................................................................................................................

5-22 Figure 6-1. BVPS EPZ Sub-Areas

................................................................................................................

6-7 Figure 7-1. Voluntary Evacuation M ethodology

.....................................................................................

7-20 Figure 7-2. Beaver Valley Power Station Shadow Region .......................................................................

7-21 Figure 7-3. Congestion Patterns at 30 Minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate ....................................

7-22 Figure 7-4. Congestion Patterns at 1 Hour after the Advisory to Evacuate ............................................

7-23 Figure 7-5. Congestion Patterns at 2 Hours, 10 Minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate ......................

7-24 Figure 7-6. Congestion Patterns at 3 Hours after the Advisory to Evacuate ..........................................

7-25 Figure 7-7. Congestion Patterns at 4 Hours, 30 Minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate ......................

7-26 Figure 7-8. Congestion Patterns at 5 Hours after the Advisory to Evacuate ..........................................

7-27 Figure 7-9. Congestion Patterns at 5 Hours, 15 Minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate ......................

7-28 Figure 7-10. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 1 for Region R03 ....................................................

7-29 Figure 7-11. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 2 for Region R03 ....................................................

7-29 Figure 7-12. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 3 for Region R03 ....................................................

7-30 Figure 7-13. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 4 for Region R03 ....................................................

7-30 Figure 7-14. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 5 for Region R03 ....................................................

7-31 Figure 7-15. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 6 for Region R03 ....................................................

7-31 Figure 7-16. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 7 for Region R03 ....................................................

7-32 Figure 7-17. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 8 for Region R03 ....................................................

7-32 Figure 7-18. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 9 for Region R03 ....................................................

7-33 Figure 7-19. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 10 for Region R03 ..................................................

7-33 Figure 7-20. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 11 for Region R03 ..................................................

7-34 Figure 7-21. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 12 for Region R03 ..................................................

7-34 Figure 7-22. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 13 for Region R03 ..................................................

7-35 Figure 7-23. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 14 for Region R03 ..................................................

7-35 Figure 8-1. Chronology of Transit Evacuation Operations

......................................................................

8-12 Figure 8-2. Transit-Dependent Bus Routes in Pennsylvania, North of the Ohio River ...........................

8-13 Beaver Valley Power Station iv KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 Figure 8-3. Transit-Dependent Bus Routes in Pennsylvania, South of the Ohio River ...........................

8-14 Figure 8-4. Transit-Dependent Bus Routes in Ohio and W est Virginia ...................................................

8-15 Figure 10-1. General Population Reception Centers and Host Schools ..................................................

10-2 Figure 10-2. Evacuation Route M ap ........................................................................................................

10-3 Figure B-1. Flow Diagram of Sim ulation-DTRAD Interface

....................................................................

B-5 Figure C-1. Representative Analysis Netw ork ...........................................................................................

C-4 Figure C-2. Fundam ental Diagram s ...........................................................................................................

C-6 Figure C-3. A UNIT Problem Configuration with t, > 0 ..............................................................................

C-6 Figure C-4. Flow of Sim ulation Processing (See Glossary:

Table C-3) ....................................................

C-14 Figure D-1. Flow Diagram of Activities

.....................................................................................................

D-5 Figure E-1. Schools within the EPZ -Overview ....................................................................................

E-13 Figure E-2. Schools North of the Ohio River within the EPZ ...............................................................

E-14 Figure E-3. Schools South of the Ohio River within the EPZ ..............................................................

E-IS Figure E-4. M edical Facilities w ithin the EPZ ..........................................................................................

E-16 Figure E-5. M ajor Em ployers within the EPZ ......................................................................................

E-17 Figure E-6. Recreational Areas within the EPZ ...................................................................................

E-18 Figure E-7. Golf Courses w ithin the EPZ ............................................................................................

E-19 Figure E-8. Lodging Facilities within the EPZ ...........................................................................................

E-20 Figure E-9. Correctional Facility w ithin the EPZ ......................................................................................

E-21 Figure F-i. Household Size in the EPZ......................................................................................................

F-4 Figure F-2. Household Vehicle Availability

..........................................................................................

F-5 Figure F-3. Vehicle Availability

-1 to 5 Person Households

......................................................................

F-6 Figure F-4. Vehicle Availability

-6 to 9+ Person Households

....................................................................

F-6 Figure F-5. Household Ridesharing Preference

.........................................................................................

F-7 Figure F-6. Com m uters in Households in the EPZ .....................................................................................

F-8 Figure F-7. M odes of Travel in the EPZ .....................................................................................................

F-9 Figure F-8. Num ber of Vehicles Used for Evacuation

.......................................................................

F-10 Figure F-9. Households Evacuating w ith Pets .....................................................................................

F-10 Figure F-10. Tim e Required to Prepare to Leave W ork/School

.............................................................

F-12 Figure F-11. W ork to Hom e Travel Tim e .................................................................................................

F-12 Figure F-12. Tim e to Prepare Hom e for Evacuation

................................................................................

F-13 Figure F-13. Tim e to Clear Driveway of 6"-8" of Snow ...........................................................................

F-14 Figure G-1. Traffic Control Points for the Beaver Valley Power Station Modeled in DYNEV II ................

G-2 Figure H-1. Region RO1 .............................................................................................................................

H-4 Figure H-2. Region R02 .............................................................................................................................

H-5 Figure H-3. Region R03 .............................................................................................................................

H-6 Figure H-4. Region R04 .............................................................................................................................

H-7 Figure H-5. Region R05 .............................................................................................................................

H-8 Figure H-6. Region R06 .............................................................................................................................

H-9 Figure H-7. Region R07 ...........................................................................................................................

H-IO Figure H-8. Region ROB ...........................................................................................................................

H-11 Figure H-9. Region R09 ...........................................................................................................................

H-12 Figure H- .i. Region RIO .........................................................................................................................

H-13 Figure H-11. Region Rib .........................................................................................................................

H-14 Figure H-12. Region R12 .........................................................................................................................

H-15 Figure H-13. Region R13 .........................................................................................................................

H-16 Figure H-14. Region R14 .........................................................................................................................

H-17 Beaver Valley Power Station v KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 Figure H-15. Region R15 .........................................................................................................................

H-18 Figure H-16. Region R16 .........................................................................................................................

H-19 Figure H-17. Region R17 .........................................................................................................................

H-20 Figure H-18. Region R18 .........................................................................................................................

H-21 Figure H-19. Region R19 .........................................................................................................................

H-22 Figure H-20. Region R20 .........................................................................................................................

H-23 Figure H-21. Region R21 .........................................................................................................................

H-24 Figure H-22. Region R22 .........................................................................................................................

H-25 Figure H-23. Region R23 .........................................................................................................................

H-26 Figure H-24. Region R24 .........................................................................................................................

H-27 Figure H-25. Region R25 .........................................................................................................................

H-28 Figure H-26. Region R26 .........................................................................................................................

H-29 Figure H-27. Region R27 .........................................................................................................................

H-30 Figure H-28. Region R28 .........................................................................................................................

H-31 Figure H-29. Region R29 .........................................................................................................................

H-32 Figure H-30. Region R30 .........................................................................................................................

H-33 Figure H-31. Region R31 .........................................................................................................................

H-34 Figure H-32. Region R32 .........................................................................................................................

H-35 Figure H-33. Region R33 .........................................................................................................................

H-36 Figure H-34. Region R34 .........................................................................................................................

H-37 Figure H-35. Region R35 .........................................................................................................................

H-38 Figure H-36. Region R36 .........................................................................................................................

H-39 Figure H-37. Region R37 .........................................................................................................................

H-40 Figure H-38. Region R38 .........................................................................................................................

H-41 Figure H-39. Region R39 .........................................................................................................................

H-42 Figure H-40. Region R40 .........................................................................................................................

H-43 Figure H-41. Region R41 .........................................................................................................................

H-44 Figure H-42. Region R42 .........................................................................................................................

H-45 Figure H-43. Region R43 .........................................................................................................................

H-46 Figure H-44. Region R44 .........................................................................................................................

H-47 Figure H-45. Region R45 .........................................................................................................................

H-48 Figure H-46. Region R46 .........................................................................................................................

H-49 Figure H-47. Region R47 .........................................................................................................................

H-50 Figure H-48. Region R48 .........................................................................................................................

H-51 Figure H-49. Region R49 .........................................................................................................................

H-52 Figure H-50. Region R50 .........................................................................................................................

H-53 Figure H-51. Region RS1 ..........................................................................................................................

H-54 Figure H-52. Region R52 .........................................................................................................................

H-55 Figure H-53. Region R53 .........................................................................................................................

H-56 Figure H-54. Region R54 .........................................................................................................................

H-57 Figure H-55. Region R55 .........................................................................................................................

H-58 Figure J-1. ETE and Trip Generation:

Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good Weather (Scenario

1) ..............

J-9 Figure J-2. ETE and Trip Generation:

Summer, Midweek, Midday, Rain (Scenario

2) ...............................

J-9 Figure J-3. ETE and Trip Generation:

Summer, Weekend, Midday, Good Weather (Scenario

3) ............

J-10 Figure J-4. ETE and Trip Generation:

Summer, Weekend, Midday, Rain (Scenario

4) ............................

J-10 Figure J-5. ETE and Trip Generation:

Summer, Midweek, Weekend, Evening, Good W eather (Scenario

5) ...............................................................................................................................

J-11 Beaver Valley Power Station vi KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 Figure J-6. ETE and Trip Generation:

Winter, Midweek, Midday, Good Weather (Scenario

6) ....... J-11 Figure J-7. ETE and Trip Generation:

Winter, Midweek, Midday, Rain (Scenario

7) ...............................

J-12 Figure J-8. ETE and Trip Generation:

Winter, Midweek, Midday, Snow (Scenario

8) .............................

J-12 Figure J-9. ETE and Trip Generation:

Winter, Weekend, Midday, Good Weather (Scenario

9) ..............

J-13 Figure J-10. ETE and Trip Generation:

Winter, Weekend, Midday, Rain (Scenario

10) ...........................

J-13 Figure J-11. ETE and Trip Generation:

Winter, Weekend, Midday, Snow (Scenario

11) .........................

J-14 Figure J-12. ETE and Trip Generation:

Winter, Midweek, Weekend, Evening, Good Weather (Scenario

12) .............................................................................................................................

J-14 Figure J-13. ETE and Trip Generation:

Summer, Weekend, Evening, Good Weather, Special Event (Scenario

13) .................................................................................................................................

J-15 Figure J-14. ETE and Trip Generation:

Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good Weather, Roadway Impact (Scenario

14) ................................................................................................................................

J-15 Figure K-1. Beaver Valley Link-Node Analysis Network ............................................................................

K-2 Figure K-2. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 1 .....................................................................................

K-3 Figure K-3. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 2 .....................................................................................

K-4 Figure K-4. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 3 ................................................................................

K-5 Figure K-5. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 4 .....................................................................................

K-6 Figure K-6. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 5 .....................................................................................

K-7 Figure K-7. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 6 .....................................................................................

K-8 Figure K-8. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 7 .....................................................................................

K-9 Figure K-9. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 8 ..............................................................................

K-10 Figure K-10. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 9 ............................................................................

K-11 Figure K-11. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 10 ...............................................................................

K-12 Figure K-12. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 11 ................................................................................

K-13 Figure K-13. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 12 ...............................................................................

K-14 Figure K-14. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 13 ..........................................................................

K-15 Figure K-15. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 14 ...............................................................................

K-16 Figure K-16. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 15 ...............................................................................

K-17 Figure K-17. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 16 ...............................................................................

K-18 Figure K-18. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 17 ...............................................................................

K-19 Figure K-19. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 18 ...............................................................................

K-20 Figure K-20. Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 19 ...............................................................................

K-21 Figure K-21. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 20 ...............................................................................

K-22 Figure K-22. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 21 ...............................................................................

K-23 Figure K-23. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 22 ...............................................................................

K-24 Figure K-24. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 23 ...............................................................................

K-25 Figure K-25. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 24 ...............................................................................

K-26 Figure K-26. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 25 ...............................................................................

K-27 Figure K-27. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 26 ...............................................................................

K-28 Figure K-28. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 27 ...............................................................................

K-29 Figure K-29. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 28 ...............................................................................

K-30 Figure K-30. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 29 ...............................................................................

K-31 Figure K-31. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 30 ...............................................................................

K-32 Figure K-32. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 31 ...............................................................................

K-33 Figure K-33. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 32 ...............................................................................

K-34 Figure K-34. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 33 ...............................................................................

K-35 Figure K-35. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 34 ...............................................................................

K-36 Beaver Valley Power Station vii KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 Figure K-36.Figure K-37.Figure K-38.Figure K-39.Figure K-40.Figure K-41.Figure K-42.Figure K-43.Figure K-44.Figure K-45.Figure K-46.Figure K-47.Figure K-48.Figure K-49.Figure K-50.Figure K-51.Figure K-52.Figure K-53.Figure K-54.Figure K-55.Figure K-56.Figure K-57.Figure K-58.Figure K-59.Figure K-60.Figure K-61.Figure K-62.Figure K-63.Figure K-64.Figure K-65.Link-Node Analysis Netw ork -Grid 35 ...............................................................................

K-37 Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 36 ...............................................................................

K-38 Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 37 ...............................................................................

K-39 Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 38 ...............................................................................

K-40 Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 39 ...............................................................................

K-41 Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 40 ...............................................................................

K-42 Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 41 ...............................................................................

K-43 Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 42 ...............................................................................

K-44 Link-Node Analysis Netw ork -Grid 43 ...............................................................................

K-45 Link-Node Analysis Netw ork -Grid 44 ...............................................................................

K-46 Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 45 ...............................................................................

K-47 Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 46 ...............................................................................

K-48 Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 47 ...............................................................................

K-49 Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 48 ..........................................................................

K -50 Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 49 ..........................................................................

K -51 Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 50 ...............................................................................

K-52 Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 51 ...............................................................................

K-53 Link-Node Analysis Network- Grid 52 ...............................................................................

K-54 Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 53 ..........................................................................

K-55 Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 54 ...............................................................................

K-56 Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 55 ...............................................................................

K-57 Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 56 ...............................................................................

K-58 Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 57 ...............................................................................

K-59 Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 58 ...............................................................................

K-60 Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 59 ...............................................................................

K-61 Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 60 ...............................................................................

K-62 Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 61 ...............................................................................

K-63 Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 62 ...............................................................................

K-64 Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 63 ...............................................................................

K-65 Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 64 ...............................................................................

K-66 List of Tables Table 1-1. Stakeholder Interaction

...........................................................................................................

1-2 Table 1-2. Highway Characteristics

...........................................................................................................

1-6 Table 1-3. ETE Study Comparisons

......................................................................................................

1-11 Table 2-1. Evacuation Scenario Definitions

...............................................................................................

2-3 Table 2-2. Model Adjustment for Adverse W eather .................................................................................

2-7 Table 3-1. EPZ Permanent Resident Population

.......................................................................................

3-4 Table 3-2. Permanent Resident Population and Vehicles by Sub-Area ..............................................

3-5 Table 3-3. Shadow Population and Vehicles by Sector .............................................................................

3-8 Table 3-4. Summary of Transients and Transient Vehicles .....................................................................

3-13 Table 3-5. Summary of Non-EPZ Resident Employees and Employee Vehicles ......................................

3-17 Table 3-6. BVPS EPZ External Traffic .......................................................................................................

3-21 Table 3-7. Summary of Population Demand ...........................................................................................

3-23 Table 3-8. Summary of Vehicle Demand .................................................................................................

3-24 Beaver Valley Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate viii KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 5-1. Event Sequence for Evacuation Activities

................................................................................

5-3 Table 5-2. Time Distribution for Notifying the Public ...............................................................................

5-6 Table 5-3. Time Distribution for Employees to Prepare to Leave Work ...................................................

5-7 Table 5-4. Time Distribution for Commuters to Travel Home ..................................................................

5-8 Table 5-5. Time Distribution for Population to Prepare to Evacuate .......................................................

5-9 Table 5-6. Time Distribution for Population to Clear 6"-8" of Snow ......................................................

5-10 Table 5-7. Mapping Distributions to Events ............................................................................................

5-12 Table 5-8. Description of the Distributions

.............................................................................................

5-13 Table 5-9. Trip Generation Histograms for the EPZ Population for Un-staged Evacuation

....................

5-19 Table 5-10. Trip Generation Histograms for the EPZ Population for Staged Evacuation

.......................

5-21 Table 6-1. Description of Evacuation Regions ...........................................................................................

6-4 Table 6-2. Description of Staged Evacuation Regions ...............................................................................

6-6 Table 6-3. Evacuation Scenario Definitions

...............................................................................................

6-8 Table 6-4. Percent of Population Groups Evacuating for Various Scenarios

............................................

6-9 Table 6-5. Vehicle Estimates by Scenario ................................................................................................

6-10 Table 7-1. Time to Clear the Indicated Area of 90 Percent of the Affected Population

...........................

7-9 Table 7-2. Time to Clear the Indicated Area of 100 Percent of the Affected Population

.......................

7-12 Table 7-3. Time to Clear 90 Percent of the 2-Mile Area within the Indicated Region ............................

7-15 Table 7-4. Time to Clear 100 Percent of the 2-Mile Area within the Indicated Region ..........................

7-16 Table 7-5. Description of Evacuation Regions .........................................................................................

7-17 Table 7-6. Description of Staged Evacuation Regions .............................................................................

7-19 Table 8-1. Transit-Dependent Population Estimates

..............................................................................

8-16 Table 8-2. School Population Demand Estimates

...................................................................................

8-17 Table 8-3. Host Schools ...........................................................................................................................

8-19 Table 8-4. Special Facility Transit Demand .............................................................................................

8-21 Table 8-5. Summary of Transportation Resources

..................................................................................

8-23 Table 8-6. Bus Route Descriptions

..........................................................................................................

8-26 Table 8-7. School Evacuation Time Estimates

-Good Weather ..............................................................

8-31 Table 8-8. School Evacuation Time Estimates

-Rain ...............................................................................

8-34 Table 8-9. School Evacuation Time Estimates

-Snow .............

I ...............................................................

8-37 Table 8-10. Summary of Transit-Dependent Bus Routes ........................................................................

8-40 Table 8-11. Transit-Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates

-Good Weather ........................................

8-42 Table 8-12. Transit-Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates

-Rain .........................................................

8-44 Table 8-13. Transit Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates

-Snow .......................................................

8-46 Table 8-14. Special Facility Evacuation Time Estimates

-Good Weather ...............................................

8-48 Table 8-15. Special Facility Evacuation Time Estimates

-Rain ................................................................

8-49 Table 8-16. Special Facility Evacuation Time Estimates

-Snow ..............................................................

8-50 Table 8-17. Homebound Special Needs Population Evacuation Time Estimates

....................................

8-51 Table 12-1. Estimated Number of Telephone Calls Required for Confirmation of Evacuation

..............

12-3 Table A-1. Glossary of Traffic Engineering Terms ...............................................................................

A-1 Table C-1. Selected Measures of Effectiveness Output by DYNEV II ........................................................

C-2 Table C-2. Input Requirements for the DYNEV II Model ...........................................................................

C-3 Table C-3. G lossary ....................................................................................................................................

C-7 Table E-1. Schools within the EPZ .............................................................................................................

E-2 Table E-2. Medical Facilities within the EPZ ..............................................................................................

E-5 Table E-3. Major Employers within the EPZ ..............................................................................................

E-7 Table E-4. Recreational Areas within the EPZ ...........................................................................................

E-9 Beaver Valley Power Station ix KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 Table E-5. Golf Courses within the EPZ ..............................................................................................

E-10 Table E-6. Lodging Facilities within the EPZ ........................................................................................

E-1i Table E-7. Correctional Facility w ithin the EPZ .......................................................................................

E-12 Table F-1. Beaver Valley Power Station Telephone Survey Sampling Plan ...............................................

F-3 Table H-i. Percent of Sub-Area Population Evacuating for Each Region...............................................

H-2 Table J-1. Characteristics of the Ten Highest Volume Signalized Intersections

........................................

J-2 Table J-2. Sam ple Sim ulation M odel Input ..........................................................................................

J-4 Table J-3. Selected Model Outputs for the Evacuation of the Entire EPZ (Region R03) .......................

J-5 Table J-4. Average Speed (mph) and Travel Time (min) for Major Evacuation Routes (Region R03, Scenario 1) .................................................................................................................................................

J-6 Table J-5. Simulation Model Outputs at Network Exit Links for Region R03, Scenario 1 ....................

J-7 Table K-i. Evacuation Roadway Network Characteristics

......................................................................

K-67 Table K-2. Nodes in the Link-Node Analysis Network which are Controlled

...................................

K-178 Table M-i. Evacuation Time Estimates for Trip Generation Sensitivity Study ...................................

M-1 Table M-2. Evacuation Time Estimates for Shadow Sensitivity Study ...............................................

M-2 Table M -3. ETE Variation with Population Change .................................................................................

M -4 Table N-1. ETE Review Criteria Checklist

............................................................................................

N-1 Beaver Valley Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate x KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 EXECUTIVE

SUMMARY

This report describes the analyses undertaken and the results obtained by a study to develop Evacuation Time Estimates (ETE) for the Beaver Valley Power Station (BVPS) located in Beaver County, Pennsylvania.

ETE are part of the required planning basis and provide FirstEnergy and state and local governments with site-specific information needed for Protective Action decision-making.

In the performance of this effort, guidance is provided by documents published by Federal Governmental agencies.

Most important of these are: " Criteria for Development of Evacuation Time Estimate Studies, NUREG/CR-7002, November 2011." Criteria for Preparation and Evaluation of Radiological Emergency Response Plans and Preparedness in Support of Nuclear Power Plants, NUREG-0654/FEMA-REP-1, Rev. 1, November 1980." Development of Evacuation Time Estimates for Nuclear Power Plants, NUREG/CR-6863, January 2005.1OCFR50, Appendix E -"Emergency Planning and Preparedness for Production and Utilization Facilities" Overview of Project Activities This project began in November, 2010 and extended over a period of 2 years. The major activities performed are briefly described in chronological sequence:* Attended "kick-off" meetings with FirstEnergy personnel and emergency management personnel representing state and county governments.

  • Accessed U.S. Census Bureau data files for the year 2010. Studied Geographical Information Systems (GIS) maps of the area in the vicinity of the Beaver Valley Power Station, then conducted a detailed field survey of the highway network." Synthesized this information to create an analysis network representing the highway system topology and capacities within the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ), plus a Shadow Region covering the region between the EPZ boundary and approximately 15 miles radially from the plant.* Designed and sponsored a telephone survey of residents within the EPZ to gather focused data needed for this ETE study that were not contained within the census database.

The survey instrument was reviewed and modified by the licensee and Offsite Response Organization (ORO) personnel prior to the survey.* FirstEnergy and the counties provided data pertaining to employment, transients, and special facilities in each county. Telephone calls to specific facilities supplemented the Beaver Valley Power Station ES-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 data provided." The traffic demand and trip-generation rates of evacuating vehicles were estimated from the gathered data. The trip generation rates reflected the estimated mobilization time (i.e., the time required by evacuees to prepare for the evacuation trip) computed using the results of the telephone survey of EPZ residents.

  • Following federal guidelines, the EPZ is subdivided into 19 sub-areas.

These sub-areas are then grouped within circular areas or "keyhole" configurations (circles plus radial sectors) that define a total of 55 evacuation regions." The time-varying external circumstances are represented as evacuation scenarios, each described in terms of the following factors: (1) Season (Summer, Winter); (2) Day of Week (Midweek, Weekend);

(3) Time of Day (Midday, Evening);

and (4) Weather (Good, Rain, Snow). One special event scenario, the Hookstown Fair, in Hookstown, Pennsylvania, was considered.

One roadway impact scenario was considered wherein a single lane was closed on Interstate 376 westbound for the duration of the evacuation." Staged evacuation was considered for those regions where the 2 mile radius and sectors downwind to 5 miles were evacuated.

  • As per NUREG/CR-7002, the Planning Basis for the calculation of ETE is: " A rapidly escalating accident at the Beaver Valley Power Station that quickly assumes the status of General Emergency such that the Advisory to Evacuate is virtually coincident with the siren alert, and no early protective actions have been implemented." While an unlikely accident scenario, this planning basis will yield ETE, measured as the elapsed time from the Advisory to Evacuate until the a stated percentage of the population exits the impacted region, that represent "upper bound" estimates.

This conservative Planning Basis is applicable for all initiating events." If the emergency occurs while schools are in session, the ETE study assumes that the children will be evacuated by bus directly to reception centers or host schools located outside the EPZ. Parents, relatives, and neighbors are advised to not pick up their children at school prior to the arrival of the buses dispatched for that purpose. The ETE for schoolchildren are calculated separately.

  • Evacuees who do not have access to a private vehicle will either ride-share with relatives, friends or neighbors, or be evacuated by buses provided as specified in the county evacuation plans. Those in special facilities will likewise be evacuated with public transit, as needed: bus, van, or ambulance, as required.

Separate ETE are calculated for the transit-dependent evacuees, for homebound special needs population, and for those evacuated from special facilities.

Beaver Valley Power Station ES-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 Computation of ETE A total of 770 ETE were computed for the evacuation of the general public. Each ETE quantifies the aggregate evacuation time estimated for the population within one of the 55 evacuation regions to evacuate from that region, under the circumstances defined for one of the 14 evacuation scenarios (55 x 14 = 770). Separate ETE are calculated for transit-dependent evacuees, including schoolchildren for applicable scenarios.

Except for region R03, which is the evacuation of the entire EPZ, only a portion of the people within the EPZ would be advised to evacuate.

That is, the Advisory to Evacuate applies only to those people occupying the specified impacted region. It is assumed that 100 percent of the people within the impacted region will evacuate in response to this Advisory.

The people occupying the remainder of the EPZ outside the impacted region may be advised to take shelter.The computation of ETE assumes that 20% of the population within the EPZ but outside the impacted region, will elect to "voluntarily" evacuate.

In addition, 20% of the population in the Shadow Region will also elect to evacuate.

These voluntary evacuees could impede those who are evacuating from within the impacted region. The impedance that could be caused by voluntary evacuees is considered in the computation of ETE for the impacted region.Staged evacuation is considered wherein those people within the 2-mile region evacuate immediately, while those beyond 2 miles, but within the EPZ, shelter-in-place.

Once 90% of the 2-mile region is evacuated, those people beyond 2 miles begin to evacuate.

As per federal guidance, 20% of people beyond 2 miles will evacuate (non-compliance) even though they are advised to shelter-in-place.

The computational procedure is outlined as follows: " A link-node representation of the highway network is coded. Each link represents a unidirectional length of highway; each node usually represents an intersection or merge point. The capacity of each link is estimated based on the field survey observations and on established traffic engineering procedures.

  • The evacuation trips are generated at locations called "zonal centroids" located within the EPZ and Shadow Region. The trip generation rates vary over time reflecting the mobilization process, and from one location (centroid) to another depending on population density and on whether a centroid is within, or outside, the impacted area." The evacuation model computes the routing patterns for evacuating vehicles that are compliant with federal guidelines (outbound relative to the location of the plant), then simulate the traffic flow movements over space and time. This simulation process estimates the rate that traffic flow exits the impacted region.The ETE statistics provide the elapsed times for 90 percent and 100 percent, respectively, of the population within the impacted region, to evacuate from within the impacted region. These statistics are presented in tabular and graphical formats. The 9 0 th percentile ETE has been identified as the value that should be considered when making protective action decisions Beaver Valley Power Station ES-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 because the 100th percentile ETE are prolonged by those relatively few people who take longer to mobilize.

This is referred to as the "evacuation tail" in Section 4.0 of NUREG/CR-7002.

Traffic Management This study references the comprehensive traffic management plans provided by Beaver County, Pennsylvania, Columbiana County, Ohio and Hancock County, West Virginia.

No additional traffic or access control points are identified as a result of this study.Selected Results A compilation of selected information is presented on the following pages in the form of Figures and Tables extracted from the body of the report; these are described below." Figure 6-1 displays a map of the BVPS EPZ showing the layout of the 19 sub-areas that comprise, in aggregate, the EPZ." Table 3-1 presents the estimates of permanent resident population in each sub-area based on the 2010 U.S. Census data." Table 6-1 defines each of the 45 un-staged evacuation regions in terms of their respective groups of sub-areas." Table 6-2 defines each of the 10 staged evacuation regions in terms of their respective groups of sub-areas." Table 6-3 lists the evacuation scenarios.

  • Tables 7-1 and 7-2 are compilations of ETE. These data are the times needed to clear the indicated regions of 90 and 100 percent of the population occupying these regions, respectively.

These computed ETE include consideration of mobilization time and of estimated voluntary evacuations from other regions within the EPZ and from the Shadow Region.* Tables 7-3 and 7-4 presents ETE for the 2-mile region for un-staged and staged evacuations for the 9 0 th and 1 0 0 th percentiles, respectively." Table 8-7 presents ETE for the schoolchildren in good weather." Table 8-11 presents ETE for the transit-dependent population in good weather." Figure H-8 presents an example of an evacuation region (region R08) to be evacuated under the circumstances defined in Table 6-1. Maps of all regions are provided in Appendix H.Conclusions

  • General population ETE were computed for 770 unique cases -a combination of 55 unique evacuation regions and 14 unique evacuation scenarios.

Table 7-1 and Table 7-2 document these ETE for the 90th and 100th percentiles.

These ETE range from 1:45 (hr:min) to 4:00 at the 9 0 th percentile.

  • Inspection of Table 7-1 and Table 7-2 indicates that the ETE for the 1 0 0 th percentile are significantly longer than those for the 90th percentile.

This is the result of the congestion within the EPZ. When the system becomes congested, traffic exits the EPZ at rates somewhat below capacity until some evacuation routes have cleared. As more routes Beaver Valley Power Station ES-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 clear, the aggregate rate of egress slows since many vehicles have already left the EPZ.Towards the end of the process, relatively few evacuation routes service the remaining demand. See Figures 7-9 through 7-22." Inspection of Table 7-3 and Table 7-4 indicates that a staged evacuation provides no benefit to evacuees from within the 2-mile region. However, evacuees from 2 to 5 miles are delayed by as much as 1 hour1.157407e-5 days <br />2.777778e-4 hours <br />1.653439e-6 weeks <br />3.805e-7 months <br /> and 5 minutes. Staged evacuation is not beneficial for the BVPS EPZ. See Section 7.6 for additional discussion.

  • Comparison of scenarios 3 (summer, weekend, midday) and 13 (summer, weekend, midday) in Tables 7-1 and 7-2 indicates that the special event (Hookstown Fair) does not materially affect the ETE. See Section 7.5 for additional discussion.
  • Comparison of scenarios 1 and 14 in Table 7-1 indicates that the roadway closure -one lane westbound on 1-376 -has a significant impact on 9 0 th percentile ETE, with increases of up to 35 minutes for regions for wind from the southwest and west. The 1 0 0 th percentile ETE are not affected." Separate ETE were computed for schools, medical facilities, transit-dependent persons, and homebound special needs persons. The average single-wave ETE for these facilities are comparable to or less than the general population ETE at the 90th percentile for an evacuation of the entire EPZ (region R03). See Section 8.* Table 8-5 indicates that there are enough buses, wheelchair buses and ambulances available to evacuate the special facility, transit-dependent and homebound special needs populations within the EPZ in a single wave." The general population ETE at the 9 0 th percentile is insensitive to reductions in the base trip generation time of 4Y2 hours due to the traffic congestion within the EPZ. See Table M-1.* The general population ETE is significantly impacted by the voluntary evacuation of vehicles in the Shadow Region at the 100th percentile (tripling the shadow evacuation percentage increases 90th and 1 0 0 th percentile ETE by 15 and 100 minutes respectively).

See Table M-2." Population changes of 30% or more result in changes in ETE which meet the NRC criteria for updating ETE between decennial censuses.

FirstEnergy will have to track population on an annual basis and update ETE if the cumulative population change relative to the 2010 U.S. Census is 30% or more. See Section M.3.Beaver Valley Power Station ES-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 Figure 6-1. BVPS EPZ Sub-Areas Beaver Valley Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate ES-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 3-1. EPZ Permanent Resident Population Sub-Area ~ ~ 200Pplto 00Pplto P-1 4,281 3,680 P-2 1,729 1,542 P-3 4,420 4,607 P-4 3,349 3,042 P-5 1,453 1,365 P-6 1,429 1,124 P-7 5,812 6,182 P-8 16,004 15,361 P-9 17,983 17,718 P-1O 25,526 22,494 P-11 2,813 2,509 P-12 3,648 3,799 0-1 756 798 0-2 16,328 14,174 0-3 5,386 5,428 0-4 165 156 W-1 6,694 6,173 W-2 2,365 2,109 W-3 1,117 1,166 EPZ Population Growth: -6.46%Beaver Valley Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate ES-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 6-1. Description of Evacuation Regionsflu I I I I I I I I I I I R06 I W VI I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I R07 350-11, 12-34 ROB 35-56 R09 57-79,80-101 RIO 102-124 RII 125-146, 147-169 R12 170-191 R13 192-214 R14 215-236, 237-259, 260-281 R15 282-304, 305-326, 327-349 I I________ I 4 I I 1-4 4 + I I I I I I I zmtzizi__r izzlzzzrziI

_I I I I I zIzt-I-I jmIm~mt-1

____ I ____ I ____ I _____Ev~~~eu~~~t.~

2~I.Ran fdfnnid Mn FP7 Rniundarw RiS 35-56 R080-101 R1102-124147-169 ES-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Beaver Valley Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate ES-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Beaver Valley Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate ES-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 6-2. Description of Staged Evacuation Regions Beaver Valley Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate ES-1O KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 6-3. Evacuation Scenario Definitions 1 Summer MidweeK Midday (bood None 2 Summer Midweek Midday Rain None 3 Summer Weekend Midday Good None 4 Summer Weekend Midday Rain None Midweek, 5 Summer Weekend Evening Good None 6 Winter Midweek Midday Good None 7 Winter Midweek Midday Rain None 8 Winter Midweek Midday Snow None 9 Winter Weekend Midday Good None 10 Winter Weekend Midday Rain None 11 Winter Weekend Midday Snow None Midweek, 12 Winter Weekend Evening Good None 13 Summer Weekend Midday Good Hookstown Fair Roadway Impact -Lane 14 Summer Midweek Midday Good Closure on 1-376 WB 2 1 Winter assumes that school is in session (also applies to spring and autumn). Summer assumes that school is not in session.2 1-376 will be reduced to a single lane in the westbound direction from the interchange with State Highway 18/Frankfort Rd (Exit 39) to the interchange with State Highway 151/Constitution Blvd (Exit 31).ES-li KLD Engineering, P.C.Beaver Valley Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate ES-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 7-1. Time to Clear the Indicated Area of 90 Percent of the Affected Population Summer Summer SWmmer Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer Midweek Midweek Midweek eeked Midweek Weekend Weekend Midweek W Weekend JWeekend Sc naio () [(2) [(3) [(4) (5) (6) (7) (8)] (9) (10) ([1) (12) [(13) (14)]Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Region Good Rain Good Ran Good Good Snw Good Rain Snow Goohr Evn Weather Weather Ran Weather Weather Ri Sn W eather Weahr Eet Impact Entire 2-Mile Region, S-Mile Region, EPZ, and States RO1 2:00 2:00 1:45 1:45 1:50 2:00 2:00 2:40 1:55 1:55 2:40 1:55 1:45 2:00 R02 2:25 2:25 2:25 2:25 2:20 2:20 2:20 2:55 2:10 2:10 2:45 2:10 2:25 2:25 R03 3:05 3:20 2:50 3:10 2:40 3:05 3:20 3:50 2:50 3:05 3:35 2:40 2:55 3:30 R04 3:10 3:30 2:55 3:15 2:50 3:10 3:30 4:00 2:55 3:10 3:40 2:45 3:00 3:35 ROS 2:20 2:25 2:15 2:20 2:15 2:25 2:30 3:00 2:15 2:20 2:50 2:15 2:15 2:20 R06 2:25 2:25 2:25 2:25 2:20 2:25 2:25 2:55 2:15 2:15 2:50 2:10 2:25 2:25 2-Mile Region and Keyhole to 5 Miles R07 2:05 2:05 1:55 1:55 1:55 2:05 2:05 2:45 1:55 1:55 2:45 1:55 1:55 2:05 ROB 2:05 2:05 1:50 1:50 1:55 2:05 2:05 2:45 1:55 1:55 2:45 1:55 1:50 2:05 R09 2:30 2:30 2:35 2:35 2:25 2:25 2:25 2:50 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:15 2:35 2:30 RIO 2:30 2:30 2:40 2:40 2:25 2:25 2:25 2:50 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:20 2:40 2:30 R11 2:30 2:30 2:30 2:30 2:20 2:25 2:25 2:55 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:15 2:30 2:30 R12 2:30 2:30 2:35 2:35 2:25 2:25 2:25 2:55 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:15 2:35 2:30 R13 2:25 2:25 2:30 2:30 2:20 2:20 2:20 2:55 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:15 2:30 2:25 R14 2:10 2:10 1:55 1:55 1:55 2:10 2:10 2:50 2:00 2:00 2:45 2:00 1:55 2:10 R15 2:05 2:05 1:50 1:50 1:55 2:05 2:05 2:45 1:55 1:55 2:45 1:55 1:50 2:05 2-Mile Region and Keyhole to EPZ Boundary R16 2:25 2:30 2:25 2:30 2:15 2:20 2:30 3:00 2:15 2:20 2:55 2:15 2:35 2:25 R17 2:25 2:30 2:25 2:30 2:20 2:25 2:25 3:00 2:15 2:20 2:55 2:15 2:35 2:25 RIB 2:25 2:25 2:20 2:25 2:15 2:20 2:25 2:55 2:15 2:15 2:50 2:10 2:25 2:25 R19 2:25 2:30 2:25 2:30 2:20 2:25 2:30 3:00 2:15 2:25 2:55 2:15 2:30 2:25 R20 2:30 2:35 2:25 2:35 2:25 2:25 2:35 3:00 2:20 2:25 2:55 2:20 2:30 2:30 R21 2:25 2:30 2:20 2:25 2:20 2:25 2:30 3:00 2:15 2:25 2:50 2:20 2:20 2:25 R22 2:25 2:30 2:20 2:25 2:20 2:25 2:30 3:00 2:15 2:25 2:50 2:20 2:20 2:25 R23 2:30 2:35 2:25 2:35 2:25 2:25 2:35 3:05 2:20 2:30 2:55 2:20 2:25 2:40 Beaver Valley Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate ES-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter winter summer summer Midweek Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Weekend Midweek Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Region Good Rain Good Ran Good Good Rain Sno Good Rain Sno Good Special Roadway______Weather Weather Ran Weather Weather nw Weather nw Weather Event Impact R24 2:30 2:40 2:25 2:35 2:25 2:30 2:40 3:05 2:20 2:30 3:00 2:25 2:25 2:40 R25 2:50 3:00 2:35 2:50 2:35 2:50 3:00 3:30 2:30 2:45 3:10 2:30 2:35 3:00 R26 3:05 3:25 2:55 3:10 2:45 3:10 3:25 3:55 2:55 3:10 3:35 2:45 2:55 3:35 R27 3:10 3:30 2:55 3:15 2:45 3:10 3:25 4:00 2:55 3:10 3:40 2:45 2:55 3:40 R28 3:05 3:25 2:50 3:10 2:45 3:05 3:25 3:50 2:55 3:05 3:35 2:45 2:55 3:40 R29 2:45 3:00 2:30 2:45 2:40 2:45 3:00 3:35 2:30 2:45 3:20 2:35 2:30 3:00 R30 2:35 2:40 2:30 2:35 2:30 2:35 2:40 3:25 2:25 2:25 3:15 2:35 2:30 2:35______ ~S-Mile Region and Keyhole to EPZ Boundary ____R31 2:30 2:30 2:30 2:35 2:20 2:25 2:30 3:00 2:15 2:20 2:55 2:15 2:35 2:30 R32 2:30 2:30 2:30 2:35 2:20 2:25 2:25 3:00 2:20 2:20 2:55 2:15 2:35 2:30 R33 2:25 2:30 2:25 2:30 2:20 2:20 2:25 3:00 2:15 2:15 2:50 2:15 2:30 2:25 R34 2:25 2:30 2:25 2:30 2:20 2:25 2:30 3:00 2:15 2:20 2:50 2:15 2:30 2:25 R35 2:25 2:30 2:25 2:30 2:20 2:25 2:30 3:00 2:20 2:25 2:55 2:20 2:30 2:30 R36 2:25 2:30 2:20 2:25 2:20 2:25 2:30 2:55 2:15 2:20 2:50 2:15 2:20 2:25 R37 2:25 2:30 2:20 2:25 2:20 2:25 2:30 3:00 2:15 2:20 2:50 2:15 2:20 2:25 R38 2:30 2:40 2:25 2:35 2:20 2:30 2:40 3:05 2:20 2:30 2:55 2:20 2:25 2:40 R39 2:30 2:40 2:25 2:35 2:25 2:30 2:40 3:05 2:20 2:30 2:55 2:20 2:25 2:40 R40 2:50 3:00 2:35 2:50 2:30 2:50 3:00 3:30 2:30 2:45 3:10 2:30 2:35 3:00 R41 3:05 3:25 3:00 3:15 2:45 3:10 3:25 3:55 2:55 3:05 3:35 2:45 3:00 3:35 R42 3:10 3:30 3:00 3:15 2:45 3:10 3:30 3:55 2:55 3:10 3:40 2:45 3:00 3:35 R43 3:00 3:25 2:55 3:05 2:45 3:05 3:25 3:55 2:55 3:05 3:30 2:40 2:55 3:35 R44 2:50 3:00 2:45 3:00 2:40 2:55 3:05 3:40 2:40 2:55 3:30 2:45 2:45 3:05 R45 2:35 2:45 2:35 2:40 2:30 2:35 2:45 3:20 2:25 2:30 3:10 2:30 2:40 2:35 Beaver Valley Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate ES-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer Midweek Midweek Midweek Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Region Good Rain Good Good Good Rain S Good Rain Snow Good Special Roadway Weather R Weather Rain Weather Weather I now Weather I I Weather Event Impact Staged Evacuation Mile Region and Keyhole to 5 Miles R46 2:30 2:30 2:30 2:30 2:30 2:30 2:30 3:20 2:30 2:30 3:20 2:30 2:30 2:30 R47 2:30 2:30 2:25 2:30 2:30 2:30 2:30 3:15 2:30 2:30 3:15 2:30 2:25 2:30 R48 2:35 2:35 2:40 2:40 2:30 2:35 2:35 3:20 2:30 2:30 3:20 2:30 2:40 2:35 R49 2:35 2:35 2:40 2:40 2:30 2:35 2:35 3:20 2:30 2:30 3:20 2:30 2:40 2:35 RSO 2:50 3:00 2:55 3:00 2:50 2:55 3:00 3:45 2:50 2:55 3:45 2:50 2:55 2:50 RS1 2:50 3:00 2:55 3:00 2:50 2:55 3:00 3:50 2:55 3:00 3:50 2:55 2:55 2:55 R52 2:45 2:55 2:50 2:55 2:45 2:50 2:55 3:40 2:50 2:55 3:45 2:50 2:50 2:50 R53 2:50 2:55 2:50 2:55 2:50 2:50 2:50 3:45 2:50 2:55 3:45 2:50 2:50 2:55 R54 2:30 2:30 2:30 2:30 2:30 2:30 2:30 3:20 2:30 2:30 3:20 2:30 2:30 2:30 R55 2:45 2:50 2:50 2:55 2:45 2:45 2:50 3:35 2:45 2:45 3:40 2:45 2:50 2:45 Beaver Valley Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate ES-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 7-2. Time to Clear the Indicated Area of 100 Percent of the Affected Population Rein Go an Go an Good Good Rain Snow God Rain Snow Weathe Eventa Impadwa Weather ____Weather Weather Weather I I Weather IIWetheEent Imac________ _____ ________Entire 2-Mile Region, 5-MileRegion, EPZ, and States ___ ____ ____R01 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 6:00 4:30 4:30 6:00 4:30 4:30 4:30 R02 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 6:05 4:35 4:35 6:05 4:35 4:35 4:35 R03 4:40 5:00 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:50 6:10 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 4:40 R04 4:40 4:50 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:50 6:10 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 4:40 ROS 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 4:40 R06 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 4:40 2-Mile Region and Keyhole to 5 Miles ___R07 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 6:05 4:35 4:35 6:05 4:35 4:35 4:35 ROB 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 6:05 4:35 4:35 6:05 4:35 4:35 4:35 R09 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 6:05 4:35 4:35 6:05 4:35 4:35 4:35 R10 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 6:05 4:35 4:35 6:05 4:35 4:35 4:35 R11 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 6:05 4:35 4:35 6:05 4:35 4:35 4:35 R12 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 6:05 4:35 4:35 6:05 4:35 4:35 4:35 R13 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 6:05 4:35 4:35 6:05 4:35 4:35 4:35 R14 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 6:05 4:35 4:35 6:05 4:35 4:35 4:35 R15 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 6:05 4:35 4:35 6:05 4:35 4:35 4:35 2-Mile Region and Keyhole to EPZ Boundary ____R16 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 4:40 R17 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 4:40 R18 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 j4:40 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 4:40 R19 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 I4:40 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 4:40 R20 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 4:40 R21 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 4:40 R22 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 4:40 R23 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 j4:40 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 4:40 Beaver Valley Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate ES-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer Midweek Midweek Midweek Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Region Good Rain Good Rain Good Good Rain Snow Good Rain Snow Good Special Roadway Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Event Impact R24 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 4:40 R25 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 4:40 R26 4:40 4:45 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:45 6:10 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 4:40 R27 4:40 4:55 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:50 6:10 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 4:40 R28 4:40 4:55 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:50 6:10 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 4:40 R29 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 4:40 R30 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 4:40 5-Mile Region and Keyhole to EPZ Boundary R31 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 4:40 R32 4:40 4:40 4:40 41:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 4:40 R33 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 4:40 R34 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 4:40 R35 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 4:40 R36 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 4:40 R37 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 4:40 R38 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 4:40 R39 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 4:40 R40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 4:40 R41 4:40 4:55 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:50 6:10 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 4:40 R42 4:40 5:00 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:50 6:10 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 4:40 R43 4:40 5:00 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:50 6:10 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 4:40 R44 4:40 4:50 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:50 6:10 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 4:40 R45 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 6:10 4:40 4:40 4:40 Beaver Valley Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate ES-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer Midweek Midweek Midweek Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Region Good Rain Good i Good Good Rain S Good Rain S Good Special Roadway Weather Weather Rain Weather Weather I now Weather I now Weather Event Impact Staged Evacuation Mile Region and Keyhole to 5 Miles R46 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 6:05 4:35 4:35 6:05 4:35 4:35 4:35 R47 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 6:05 4:35 4:35 6:05 4:35 4:35 4:35 R48 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 6:05 4:35 4:35 6:05 4:35 4:35 4:35 R49 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 6:05 4:35 4:35 6:05 4:35 4:35 4:35 R50 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 6:05 4:35 4:35 6:05 4:35 4:35 4:35 R51 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 6:05 4:35 4:35 6:05 4:35 4:35 4:35 R52 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 6:05 4:35 4:35 6:05 4:35 4:35 4:35 R53 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 6:05 4:35 4:35 6:05 4:35 4:35 4:35 R54 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 6:05 4:35 4:35 6:05 4:35 4:35 4:35 R55 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 6:05 4:35 4:35 6:05 4:35 4:35 4:35 Beaver Valley Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate ES-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 7-3. Time to Clear 90 Percent of the 2-Mile Area within the Indicated Region Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer Midweek Weekend MidU- ed Midweek Weekend 5-Mile Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend rio (t ) 22:0011: 45 : 51 1:01 :0 12 (80 (24 15 1:)5 5 1 :(55 [1) 41 2:00 Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Region GoodI Ran ood1 Ran ood Good1 I RanISo ood1 I Ran So Oood Special Roadway Weather Ran Weather Ran Weather Weather Ri Snw Weather Ri Snw Weather Event Impact Un-staged Evacuation Mile Region and S-Mile Region R01 2:00 2:00 1:45 1:45 1:50 2:00 2:00 2:40 1:55 1:55 2:40 1:55 1:45 2:00 ROB 2:00 2:00 1:45 1:45 1:50 2:00 12:00 12:40 11:55 11:55 2:40 1:55 1:45 2:00 Un-staged Evacuation Mile Region and Keyhole to 5 Miles R07 2:00 2:00 1:45 1:45 1:50 2:00 2:00 2:40 1:55 1:55 2:40 1:55 1:45 2:00 RO8 2:00 2:00 1:45 1:45 1:50 2:00 2:00 2:40 1:55 1:55 2:40 1:55 1:45 2:00 R09 2:00 2:00 1:45 1:45 1:50 2:00 2:00 2:40 1:55 1:55 2:40 1:55 1:45 2:00 R10 2:00 2:00 1:45 1:45 1:50 2:00 2:00 2:40 1:55 1:55 2:40 1:55 1:45 2:00 R11 2:00 2:00 1:45 1:45 1:50 2:00 2:00 2:40 1:55 1:55 2:40 1:55 1:45 2:00 R12 2:00 2:00 1:45 1:45 1:50 2:00 2:00 2:40 1:55 1:55 2:40 1:55 1:45 2:00 R13 2:00 2:00 1:45 1:45 1:50 2:00 2:00 2:40 1:55 1:55 2:40 1:55 1:45 2:00 R14 2:00 2:00 1:45 1:45 1:50 2:00 2:00 2:40 1:55 1:55 2:40 1:55 1:45 2:00 R15 2:00 2:00 1:45 1:45 1:50 2:00 2:00 2:40 1:55 1:55 2:40 1:55 1:45 2:00 Staged Evacuation Mile Region and Keyhole to 2 Miles R46 2:00 2:00 1:45 1:45 1:50 2:00 2:00 2:40 1:55 1:55 2:40 1:55 1:45 2:00 R47 2:00 2:00 1:45 1:45 1:50 2:00 2:00 2:40 1:55 1:55 2:40 1:55 1:45 2:00 R48 2:00 2:00 1:45 1:45 1:50 2:00 2:00 2:40 1:55 1:55 2:40 1:55 1:45 2:00 R49 2:00 2:00 1:45 1:45 1:50 2:00 2:00 2:40 1:55 1:55 2:40 1:55 1:45 2:00 R50 2:00 2:00 1:45 1:45 1:50 2:00 2:00 2:40 1:55 1:55 2:40 1:55 1:45 2:00 R51 2:00 2:00 1:45 1:45 1:50 2:00 2:00 2:40 1:55 1:55 2:40 1:55 1:45 2:00 R52 2:00 2:00 1:45 1:45 1:50 2:00 2:00 2:40 1:55 1:55 2:40 1:55 1:45 2:00 R53 2:00 2:00 1:45 1:45 1:50 2:00 2:00 2:40 1:55 1:55 2:40 1:55 1:45 2:00 R54 2:00 2:00 1:45 1:45 1:50 2:00 2:00 2:40 1:55 1:55 2:40 1:55 1:45 2:00 RSS 2:00 2:00 1:45 1:45 1:50 2:00 2:00 2:40 1:55 1:55 2:40 1:55 1:45 2:00 ES-18 KLD Engineering, P.C.Beaver Valley Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate ES-18 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 7-4. Time to Clear 100 Percent of the 2-Mile Area within the Indicated Region Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer Midweek Weekend MidU- ed Midweek Weekend g a M iend Weekeek Weekend Weekend Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Region Good0 Ran oodI Ran ood Good 11l Sno Good Ran So ood. Special oda Weather RanWeather Ran Weather Weather RIn So Weather RIn Sno Weather Event Impact Un-staged Evacuation Mile Region and S-Mile Region R01 4:30 4:3014:3 4:304:3014:304:30

[6:00 4:30 4:306:00 4:301 4:30 R02 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 6:00 [ 4:30 J 4:30 6:00 4:30 4:30 4:30 Un-staged Evacuation Mile Region and Keyhole to 5 Miles R07 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 6:00 4:30 4:30 6:00 4:30 4:30 4:30 ROB 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 6:00 4:30 4:30 6:00 4:30 4:30 4:30 R09 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 6:00 4:30 4:30 6:00 4:30 4:30 4:30 RIO 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 6:00 4:30 4:30 6:00 4:30 4:30 4:30 R11 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 6:00 4:30 4:30 6:00 4:30 4:30 4:30 R12 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 6:00 4:30 4:30 6:00 4:30 4:30 4:30 R13 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 6:00 4:30 4:30 6:00 4:30 4:30 4:30 R14 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 6:00 4:30 4:30 6:00 4:30 4:30 4:30 R15 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 6:00 4:30 4:30 6:00 4:30 4:30 4:30 Staged Evacuation Mile Region and Keyhole to 5 Miles R46 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 6:00 4:30 4:30 6:00 4:30 4:30 4:30 R47 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 6:00 4:30 4:30 6:00 4:30 4:30 4:30 R48 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 6:00 4:30 4:30 6:00 4:30 4:30 4:30 R49 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 6:00 4:30 4:30 6:00 4:30 4:30 4:30 R50 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 6:00 4:30 4:30 6:00 4:30 4:30 4:30 RS1 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 6:00 4:30 4:30 6:00 4:30 4:30 4:30 R52 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 6:00 4:30 4:30 6:00 4:30 4:30 4:30 R53 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 6:00 4:30 4:30 6:00 4:30 4:30 4:30 R54 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 6:00 4:30 4:30 6:00 4:30 4:30 4:30 R55 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 6:00 4:30 4:30 6:00 4:30 4:30 4:30 ES-ig KLD Engineering, P.C.Beaver Valley Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate ES-19 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 8-7. School Evacuation Time Estimates

-Good Weather Lincoln Park Performing Arts Charter School 90 15 10.4 16.1 39 24.7 33 Midland Neel Elementary/Middle 90 15 10.4 16.1 39 School Prima Learning Center 90 15 10.4 16.1 39 Western Beaver Junior-Senior High 90 15 9.3 4.4 127 School Bethel Christian School 90 15 10.9 43.8 15 South Side Elementary School 90 15 8.8 25.8 21 South Side High School 90 15 8.8 25.8 21 South Side Middle School 90 15 8.8 25.8 21 Blackhawk Intermediate School 90 15 1.6 26.3 4 Fairview Elementary School 90 15 6.0 9.8 37 Highland Middle School 90 15 2.3 26.3 6 Beaver Area Academic Charter 90 15 9.7 4.9 119 School Beaver Area High School 90 15 9.7 4.9 119 Beaver Area Middle School 90 15 7.4 4.2 106 College Square Elementary School 90 15 9.7 5.1 114 Dutch Ridge Elementary 90 15 7.8 4.8 99 Patterson Primary School 90 15 3.0 30.7 6 24.7 33 24.7 33 24.7 33 30.1 25.4 25.4 25.4 0.3 24.7 0.3 41 34 34 34 1 33 1 58.9 79 58.9 58.9 58.9 58.9 4.2 79 79 79 79 6 Beaver Valley Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate ES-20 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Sts. Peter and Paul School 90 15 10.1 5.0 122 58.9 1 79 Beaver County Career & Technology 90 15 10.0 22.3 27 Center Center Grange Primary School 90 15 9.1 22.1 25 Central Valley High School 90 15 9.7 22.3 27 Central Valley Middle School 90 15 9.7 22.3 27 St. John the Baptist School 90 15 0.5 30.0 1 Todd Lane Elementary School 90 15 3.9 22.4 11 Aliquippa Elementary School 90 15 5.9 3.0 119 Aliquippa Jr./Sr. High School 90 15 5.0 2.8 106 Hope Christian Academy 90 15 3.8 2.6 87 Hopewell Elementary School 90 15 2.7 6.9 24 Hopewell Junior High School 90 15 2.8 6.9 25 Hopewell Senior High School 90 15 3.0 9.3 20 Margaret Ross Elementary School 90 15 3.1 6.3 30 Our Lady of Fatima School 90 15 2.3 8.6 17 Independence Elementary School 90 15 6.2 11.2 34 Pleasant Hills Wesleyan Academy 90 is 6.2 20.3 19 American Spirit Academy 90 15 4.7 45.0 7 East Liverpool High School 90 15 5.8 40.5 9 East Liverpool Jr. High School 90 15 5.8 40.5 9 East Liverpool Jr. High School 90 15 5.8 40.5 9 40.6 55 40.6 40.6 40.6 40.5 40.5 25.8 25.8 25.8 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1')r A 55 55 55 54 54 35 35 35 41 41 41 41 41 41 1A 17 12.6 17 12.5 17 12.5 17 Beaver Valley Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate ES-21 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Employment Development Center FmnInvm~nt flpvpInnmpnt rontar New Manchester Elementary School I Beaver Valley Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate ES-22 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 8-11. Transit-Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates

-Good Weather 1 2 12u 11.5 14.1 49 3U 3/,5 IU 3U 2 1 120 17.4 24.1 43 30 3 1 120 13.9 21.5 39 30 4 2 120 11.3 9.1 74 30 5 2 120 15.2 11.1 82 30 6 1 120 14.0 21.3 40 30 7 1 120 12.5 15.4 49 30 8 2 120 9.0 23.8 23 30 9 2 120 10.9 12.4 53 30 10 2 120 6.0 12.2 30 30 11 1 120 1.3 25.8 3 30 12 4 120 11.3 41.1 16 30 13 3 120 7.8 41.1 11 30 14 1 120 4.7 41.3 7 30 15 1 120 1.9 45.0 3 30 16 1 120 2.1 45.0 3 30 17 3 120 8.5 12.4 41 30 18 5 120 5.3 9.4 34 30 5 120 2.2 6.9 19 30 19 5 140 2.2 7.8 17 30 20 3 120 9.5 4.6 124 30 21 2 120 2.4 6.5 22 30 37.8 50 5 10 74 30 19.4 26 5 10 44 30 41.4 55 5 10 70 30 19.4 26 5 10 47 30 37.8 50 5 10 69 30 30.4 41 5 10 57 30 24.4 33 5 10 45 30 19.4 26 5 10 41 30 7.4 10 5 10 20 30 20.4 27 5 10 30 30 41.4 55 5 10 70 30 41.4 55 5 10 66 30 41.4 55 5 10 61 30 19.4 26 5 10 28 30 19.4 26 5 10 29 30 41.4 55 5 10 67 30 47.1 63 5 10 71 30 47.1 63 5 10 67 30 48.1 64 5 10 69 30 28.4 38 5 10 51 30 28.4 38 5 10 43 30 Beaver Valley Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate ES-23 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 5 120 7.0 15.8 27 30 22 140 j 7.0 32.5 60 30 4 160 7.0 34.6 60 30 23 2 120 5.2 4.7 67 30 24 1 120 0.3 5.3 3 30 25 2 120 5.4 14.6 22 30 26 1 120 10.0 37.5 16 30 27 3 120 3.6 18.8 11 30 28 3 120 4.7 55.0 5 30 29 3 120 5.6 19.0 18 30 30 2 120 7.0 19.3 22 30 31 1 120 11.1 37.5 18 30 32 4 120 2.0 52.4 2 30 33 4 120 5.0 36.4 8 30 34 4 120 5.4 51.5 6 30 Maximum ETE: Average ETE: 28.4 38 5 10 50 30 28.4 38 5 10 50 30 28.4 38 5 10 50 30 19.4 26 5 10 33 30 24.4 33 5 10 33 30 24.4 33 5 10 40 30 3.0 4 5 10 20 30 3.9 5 5 10 10 30 5.5 7 5 10 14 30 3.9 5 5 10 15 30 3.5 5 5 10 16 30 3.0 4 5 10 22 30 2.8 4 5 10 6 30 16.8 22 5 10 31 30 16.8 22 5 10 30 30 Maximum ETE: Average ETE: Beaver Valley Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate ES-24 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Figure H-8. Region RO8 Beaver Valley Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate ES-25 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 1 INTRODUCTION This report describes the analyses undertaken and the results obtained by a study to develop Evacuation Time Estimates (ETE) for the Beaver Valley Power Station (BVPS), located in Beaver County, Pennsylvania.

ETE provide state and local governments with site-specific information needed for Protective Action decision-making.

In the performance of this effort, guidance is provided by documents published by Federal Government agencies.

Most important of these are:* Criteria for Development of Evacuation Time Estimate Studies, NUREG/CR-7002, November 2011.* Criteria for Preparation and Evaluation of Radiological Emergency Response Plans and Preparedness in Support of Nuclear Power Plants, NUREG 0654/FEMA REP 1, Rev. 1, November 1980.0 Analysis of Techniques for Estimating Evacuation Times for Emergency Planning Zones, NUREG/CR 1745, November 1980.0 Development of Evacuation Time Estimates for Nuclear Power Plants, NUREG/CR-6863, January 2005.The work effort reported herein was supported and guided by local stakeholders who contributed suggestions, critiques, and the local knowledge base required.

Table 1-1 presents a summary of stakeholders and interactions.

Beaver Valley Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 1-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 1-1. Stakeholder Interaction Stkhle Naur of Stkeole Interaction FirstEnergy emergency planning personnel Meetings to define data requirements and set up contacts with local government agencies.

Obtain special facility data.Obtain Beaver County Radiological Emergency Beaver County Emergency Management Agency Preparedness Plans for Beaver Valley Power Station Columbiana County Emergency Management Obtain Columbiana County Radiological Agency Emergency Preparedness Plans for Beaver Valley Power Station Obtain Hancock County Radiological Emergency Hancock County Emergency Management Agency Preparedness Plans for Beaver Valley Power Station Obtain Pennsylvania Radiological Emergency Pennsylvania State Emergency Management Office Preparedness Plans for Beaver Valley Power Station Provided data for transients hunting at state Pennsylvania Game Commission (PGC) gmlnswti h P Obtain Ohio Radiological Emergency Preparedness Ohio State Emergency Management OfficePlnfoBevrVlyPwrStin Plans for Beaver Valley Power Station Obtain West Virginia Radiological Emergency West Virginia State Emergency Management Preparedness Plans for Beaver Valley Power Office Station 1.1 Overview of the ETE Process The following outline presents a brief description of the work effort in chronological sequence: 1. Information Gathering:

a. Defined the scope of work in discussions with representatives from FirstEnergy.
b. Attended meetings with emergency planners from PEMA, Ohio EMA, West Virginia EMA, Beaver County EMA, Columbiana County EMA and Hancock County EMA to identify issues to be addressed and resources available.
c. Conducted a detailed field survey of the highway system and of area traffic conditions within the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) and Shadow Region.d. Obtained demographic data from census, state and local agencies.e. Conducted a random sample telephone survey of EPZ residents.
f. Conducted a data collection effort to identify and describe schools, special facilities, major employers, transportation providers, and other important Beaver Valley Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 1-2 KILD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 information.
2. Estimated distributions of Trip Generation times representing the time required by various population groups (permanent residents, employees, and transients) to prepare (mobilize) for the evacuation trip. These estimates are primarily based upon the random sample telephone survey.3. Defined evacuation scenarios.

These scenarios reflect the variation in demand, in trip generation distribution and in highway capacities, associated with different seasons, day of week, time of day and weather conditions.

4. Reviewed the existing traffic management plan to be implemented by local and state police in the event of an incident at the plant. Traffic control is applied at specified Traffic Control Points (TCP) located within the EPZ.5. Used existing sub-areas to define evacuation areas or regions. The EPZ is partitioned into 19 sub-areas along jurisdictional and geographic boundaries. "Regions" are groups of contiguous sub-areas for which ETE are calculated.

The configurations of these regions reflect wind direction and the radial extent of the impacted area. Each region, other than those that approximate circular areas, approximates a "key-hole section" within the EPZ as recommended by NUREG/CR-7002.

6. Estimated demand for transit services for persons at special facilities and for transit-dependent persons at home.7. Prepared the input streams for the DYNEV II system.a. Estimated the evacuation traffic demand, based on the available information derived from census data, and from data provided by local and state agencies, FirstEnergy and from the telephone survey.b. Applied the procedures specified in the 2010 Highway Capacity Manual (HCM 1)to the data acquired during the field survey, to estimate the capacity of all highway segments comprising the evacuation routes.c. Developed the link-node representation of the evacuation network, which is used as the basis for the computer analysis that calculates the ETE.d. Calculated the evacuating traffic demand for each region and for each scenario.e. Specified selected candidate destinations for each "origin" (location of each"source" where evacuation trips are generated over the mobilization time) to support evacuation travel consistent with outbound movement relative to the location of the Beaver Valley Power Station.8. Executed the DYNEV II model to provide the estimates of evacuation routing and ETE for all residents, transients and employees

("general population")

with access to private vehicles.

Generated a complete set of ETE for all specified regions and scenarios.

1 Highway Capacity Manual (HCM 2010), Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, 2010.Beaver Valley Power Station 1-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2

9. Documented ETE in formats in accordance with NUREG/CR-7002.
10. Calculated the ETE for all transit activities including those for special facilities (schools, medical facilities, etc.), for the transit-dependent population and for homebound special needs population.

1.2 The Beaver Valley Power Station Location The BVPS is located on the Ohio River in Shippingport, Beaver County, Pennsylvania.

The site is approximately 26 miles northwest of the Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania and 35 miles southeast of Youngstown, Ohio. The EPZ consists of parts of Beaver County in Pennsylvania, Columbiana County in Ohio and Hancock County in West Virginia.

Figure 1-1 displays the area surrounding the BVPS. This map identifies the major population centers and roads in the area, and shows the location of the plant relative to the nearest large city -Pittsburgh.

Beaver Valley Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 1-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Figure 1-1. Beaver Valley Power Station Location 1-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Beaver Valley Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 1-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2

1.3 Preliminary

Activities These activities are described below.Field Surveys of the Highway Network KLD personnel drove the entire highway system within the EPZ and the Shadow Region which consists of the area between the EPZ boundary and approximately 15 miles radially from the plant. The characteristics of each section of highway were recorded.

These characteristics are shown in Table 1-2: Table 1-2. Highway Characteristics" Number of lanes 0 Posted speed* Pavement width

  • Actual free speed* Shoulder type & width 0 Abutting land use* Intersection configuration 0 Control devices" Lane channelization 0 Interchange geometries
  • Geometrics:

curves, grades 0 Traffic signal type" Unusual characteristics:

Narrow bridges, sharp curves, poor pavement, flood warning signs, inadequate delineations, etc.Video and audio recording equipment were used to capture a permanent record of the highway infrastructure.

No attempt was made to meticulously measure such attributes as lane width and shoulder width; estimates of these measures based on visual observation and recorded images were considered appropriate for the purpose of estimating the capacity of highway sections.

For example, Exhibit 15-7 in the HCM indicates that a reduction in lane width from 12 feet (the "base" value) to 10 feet can reduce free flow speed (FFS) by 1.1 mph -not a material difference

-for two-lane highways.

Exhibit 15-30 in the HCM shows little sensitivity for the estimates of Service Volumes at Level of Service (LOS) E (near capacity), with respect to FFS, for two-lane highways.The data from the audio and video recordings were used to create detailed Geographical Information Systems (GIS) shapefiles and databases of the roadway characteristics and of the traffic control devices observed during the road survey; this information was referenced while preparing the input stream for the DYNEV II System.As documented on page 15-5 of the HCM 2010, the capacity of a two-lane highway is 1700 passenger cars per hour in one direction.

For freeway sections, a value of 2250 vehicles per hour per lane is assigned, as per Exhibit 11-17 of the HCM 2010. The road survey has identified several segments which are characterized by adverse geometrics on two-lane highways which are reflected in reduced values for both capacity and speed. These estimates are consistent with the service volumes for LOS E presented in HCM Exhibit 15-30. These links may be identified by reviewing Appendix K. Link capacity is an input to DYNEV II which computes the Beaver Valley Power Station 1-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 ETE. Further discussion of roadway capacity is provided in Section 4 of this report.Traffic signals are either pre-timed (signal timings are fixed over time and do not change with the traffic volume on competing approaches), or are actuated (signal timings vary over time based on the changing traffic volumes on competing approaches).

Actuated signals require detectors to provide the traffic data used by the signal controller to adjust the signal timings.These detectors are typically magnetic loops in the roadway, or video cameras mounted on the signal masts and pointed toward the intersection approaches.

If detectors were observed on the approaches to a signalized intersection during the road survey, detailed signal timings were not collected as the timings vary with traffic volume. TCPs at locations which have control devices are represented as actuated signals in the DYNEV II system.If no detectors were observed, the signal control at the intersection was considered pre-timed, and detailed signal timings were gathered for several signal cycles. These signal timings were input to the DYNEV II system used to compute ETE, as per NUREG/CR-7002 guidance.Figure 1-2 presents the link-node analysis network that was constructed to model the evacuation roadway network in the EPZ and Shadow Region. The directional arrows on the links and the node numbers have been removed from Figure 1-2 to clarify the figure. The detailed figures provided in Appendix K depict the analysis network with directional arrows shown and node numbers provided.

The observations made during the field survey were used to calibrate the analysis network.Telephone Survey A telephone survey was undertaken to gather information needed for the evacuation study.Appendix F presents the survey instrument, the procedures used and tabulations of data compiled from the survey returns.These data were utilized to develop estimates of vehicle occupancy to estimate the number of evacuating vehicles during an evacuation and to estimate elements of the mobilization process.This database was also referenced to estimate the number of transit-dependent residents.

Developing the Evacuation Time Estimates The overall study procedure is outlined in Appendix D. Demographic data were obtained from several sources, as detailed later in this report. These data were analyzed and converted into vehicle demand data. The vehicle demand was loaded onto appropriate "source" links of the analysis network using GIS mapping software.

The DYNEV II system was then used to compute ETE for all regions and scenarios.

Analytical Tools The DYNEV II System that was employed for this study is comprised of several integrated computer models. One of these is the DYNEV (D.Ynamic Network EVacuation) macroscopic simulation model, a new version of the I-DYNEV model that was developed by KLD under contract with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).Beaver Valley Power Station 1-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 DYNEV II consists of four sub-models: " A macroscopic traffic simulation model (for details, see Appendix C)." A Trip Distribution (TD), model that assigns a set of candidate destination (D) nodes for each "origin" (0) located within the analysis network, where evacuation trips are"generated" over time. This establishes a set of O-D tables.* A Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTA), model which assigns trips to paths of travel (routes) which satisfy the O-D tables, over time. The TD and DTA models are integrated to form the DTRAD (Dynamic Traffic Assignment and Distribution) model, as described in Appendix B." A Myopic Traffic Diversion model which diverts traffic to avoid intense, local congestion, if possible.Another software product developed by KLD, named UNITES (UNIfied Transportation Engineering System) was used to expedite data entry and to automate the production of output tables.The dynamics of traffic flow over the network are graphically animated using the software product, EVAN (EVacuation ANimator), developed by KLD. EVAN is GIS based, and displays statistics such as Level of Service (LOS), vehicles discharged, average speed, and percent of vehicles evacuated, output by the DYNEV II System. The use of a GIS framework enables the user to zoom in on areas of congestion and query road name, town name and other geographical information.

The procedure for applying the DYNEV II System within the framework of developing ETE is outlined in Appendix D. Appendix A is a glossary of terms.For the reader interested in an evaluation of the original model, I-DYNEV, the following references are suggested: " NUREG/CR-4873

-Benchmark Study of the I-DYNEV Evacuation Time Estimate Computer Code" NUREG/CR-4874

-The Sensitivity of Evacuation Time Estimates to Changes in Input Parameters for the I-DYNEV Computer Code The evacuation analysis procedures are based upon the need to:* Route traffic along paths of travel that will expedite their travel from their respective points of origin to points outside the EPZ.* Restrict movement toward the plant to the extent practicable, and disperse traffic demand so as to avoid focusing demand on a limited number of highways.* Move traffic in directions that are generally outbound, relative to the location of the Beaver Valley Power Station.DYNEV II provides a detailed description of traffic operations on the evacuation network. This description enables the analyst to identify bottlenecks and to develop countermeasures that Beaver Valley Power Station 1-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 are designed to represent the behavioral responses of evacuees.

The effects of these countermeasures may then be tested with the model.1.4 Comparison with Prior ETE Study Table 1-3 presents a comparison of the present ETE study with the 2003 study. The ETE in the 2003 study (traditional demand) and in this study are quite similar as shown in the last row of Table 1-3. Potential factors contributing to the differences between the ETE values obtained in this study and those of the previous (high vehicle demand) study can be summarized as follows: " Resident population vehicle occupancy is based on the results of a telephone survey of EPZ residents." The highway representation is far more detailed." Roadway capacity based on 2010 HCM rather than the 2000 HCM.1-9 KLD Engineering, p.c.Beaver Valley Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 1-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Figure 1-2. BVPS Link-Node Analysis Network 1-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Beaver Valley Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 1-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 1-3. ETE Study Comparisons To-ic Prviu 0T Std urn td Resident Population Basis 2000 US Census Data;Population

= 122,7522 ArcGIS Software using 2010 US Census blocks; area ratio method used.Population

= 113,427 Resident Vehicle occupancy based upon 1980 study 2.40 persons/household, 1.23 Population (traditional demand) 2.45 persons per vehicle evacuating vehicles/household Vehicle and census data (high demand) 1.66 persons yielding:

1.95 persons/vehicle.

Occupancy per vehicle.Employee estimates based on information provided by county emergency management Employee estimates based on Employee agencies, supplemented by: databases from information provided about major Empuloyn Harris InfoSource, Beaver County Chamber of employers in EPZ. 1.04 employees Commerce, telephone and internet searches.

per vehicle based on telephone 1.0 employee per vehicle was used for all survey results.major employers.

Estimates based upon U.S. Census data and the results of the telephone survey. A total of 2,771 Census data used to provide an estimate of people who do not have access to Tra dnt- the number of people without access to a vehicle, requiring 93 buses to Population personal transportation.

No number evacuate.

An additional 36 provided homebound special needs persons needed special transportation to evacuate (all 36 require a wheelchair-accessible vehicle).Transient estimates based upon Transient estimates based on information information provided about from county and local tourism websites and transient attractions in EPZ, Transient the 2002 AAA Tour Book listings, phone calls supplemented by observations of Population to local facilities, and data obtained from the facilities during the road state and county agencies.

survey and from aerial Transients

= 12,023 photography.

I_ Transients

= 11,431 2 Note that this number is slightly higher (1.2%) than the 2000 US Census population reported in Table 3-1 of this report. This difference is due to different population estimate methodologies and to a slight change in the EPZ boundary in the West Virginia portion of the EPZ since the last study.1-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Beaver Valley Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 1-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2

-oi-c PrvosIESuy urn td Special Facilities Population Special facility population based on information provided by each county within the EPZ.Special Facility Peak Population

= 3,005 Buses, wheelchair buses, and ambulances required were not reported.Special facility population based on information provided by each county and individual facility within the EPZ.Current census = 1,724 Buses Required = 47 Wheelchair Bus Required = 39 Ambulances Required = 41 School population based on information School population based on provided by each county supplemented by information provided by each facility lists within the EPZ. county within the EPZ. This total School Population School enrollment

= 26,734 (This number included 3 commuter colleges.includes student and staff.) School enrollment

= 31,434 Buses required were not reported.

Buses required = 373 Voluntary evacuation from20 fh within EPZ in 20% of the population within the Not considered EPZ, but not within the evacuation areas outside region (see Figure 2-1)region to be evacuated Shadow 20% of people outside of the EPZ nNot considered within the Shadow Region Evacuation Ntcniee (see Figure 7-2)Network Size 377 links; 316 nodes 2,621 links; 1,957 nodes Field surveys conducted in December 2010. Roads and Roadway Field surveys conducted in 2003. iections were vide ard intersections were video archived.Geometric Data Road capacities based on 2000 HCM. Road capacities based on 2010 HCM.Direct evacuation to designated School Evacuation Direct evacuation to designated Host Schools. Host School.Host School.50 percent of transit-dependent Ridesharing Not considered persons will evacuate with a neighbor or friend.Beaver Valley Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 1-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2

-I Topi Prviu IT td urn Std Trip Generation for Evacuation Mobilization times based on published data from historical events.Permanent residents evacuate between 15 and 135 minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate.Employees and transients leave between 15 and 75 minutes.Based on residential telephone survey of specific pre-trip mobilization activities:

Residents with commuters returning leave between 30 and 270 minutes.Residents without commuters returning leave between 15 and 210 minutes.Employees and transients leave between 15 and 120 minutes.All times measured from the Advisory to Evacuate.Normal, Rain, or Snow. The Normal, Rain, or Snow. The capacity of all capacity and free flow speed of all Weather links in the network is reduced by 20% in the links in the network are reduced event of rain and 30% for snow. by 10% in the event of rain and 20% for snow.Modeling Net Vac2 DYNEV II System-Version Modeling Net__ Vac24.0.15.0 Special Events None considered Hookstown Fair, Hookstown, PA 1 region and 3 scenarios producing 3 unique cases for both traditional vehicle demand and high vehicle demand. 55 regions (central sector wind direction and two adjacent sectors Evacuation Cases 2 additional partial EPZ regions and 1 techn and 14 scenars scenario producing 2 additional unique cases pocinique cases for both traditional vehicle demand and high vehicle demand.ETE reported for 9 0 th percentile for a full EPZ ETE reported for 9 0 th and 1 0 0 th Evacuation Time evacuation and 100 percentile population percentile population for all cases.Estimates for all scenarios.

Results presented by region Results presented by region and Reporting and scenario.

scenario.Beaver Valley Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 1-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 I -I. Toi rvosIESud urn td Evacuation lime Estimates for the entire EPZ, 9 0 th percentile Traditional Demand Winter, Weekday, Midday, Good Weather: 3:15 Summer, Weekend, Midday, Good Weather: 2:50 High Vehicle Demand Winter, Weekday, Midday, Good Weather: 4:15 Summer, Weekend, Midday, Good Weather: 3:45 Winter, Weekday, Midday, Good Weather: 3:05 Summer, Weekend, Midday, Good Weather: 2:50 1-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Beaver Valley Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 1-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2

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