ML14128A174

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Attachment 1: Kld TR-633, Rev. 0, LaSalle County Generating Station Development of Evacuation Time Estimates, Page 6-1 Through Page C-15
ML14128A174
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Site: LaSalle  Constellation icon.png
Issue date: 04/08/2014
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KLD Engineering, PC
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Exelon Generation Co, Office of Nuclear Material Safety and Safeguards, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
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ML14128A158 List:
References
RS-14-0145 EP-AA-1005, Addendum 2, Rev 01, KLD TR-633, Rev 0
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6 DEMAND ESTIMATION FOR EVACUATION SCENARIOS An evacuation "case" defines a combination of Evacuation Region and Evacuation Scenario.The definitions of "Region" and "Scenario" are as follows: Region A grouping of contiguous evacuating Sub-areas that forms either a "keyhole" sector-based area, or a circular area within the EPZ, that must be evacuated in response to a radiological emergency.

Scenario A combination of circumstances, including time of day, day of week, season, and weather conditions.

Scenarios define the number of people in each of the affected population groups and their respective mobilization time distributions.

A total of 22 Regions were defined which encompass all the groupings of Sub-areas considered.

These Regions are defined in Table 6-1. The Sub-area configurations are identified in Figure 6-1. Each keyhole sector-based area consists of a central circle centered at the power plant, and three adjoining sectors, each with a central angle of 22.5 degrees, as per NUREG/CR-7002 guidance.

The central sector coincides with the wind direction.

These sectors extend to 5 miles from the plant (Regions R04 and R05) or to the EPZ boundary (Regions R06 through R19).Regions R01, R02 and R03 represent evacuations of circular areas with radii of 2, 5 and 10 miles, respectively.

Regions R20 through R22 are identical to Regions R02, R04, and R05, respectively; however, those Sub-areas between 2 miles and 5 miles are staged until 90% of the 2-mile region (Region R01) has evacuated.

Each Sub-area that intersects the keyhole is included in the Region, unless specified otherwise in the Protective Action Recommendation (PAR) determination flowchart on page LS 4-3 of the Radiological Emergency Plan Annex for LaSalle Station (Exelon, 2013). There are instances when a small portion of a Sub-area is within the keyhole and the population within that small portion is low (500 people or 10% of Sub-area population, whichever is less). Under those circumstances, the Sub-area would not be included in the Region.The City of Marseilles, Illinois is split between 2 Sub-areas.

The eastern half of the city is in Sub-area 10, while the western half is in Sub-area 11. Based on discussions with Exelon and the offsite agencies, the city would always evacuate as a whole when wind is blowing toward the city (Sub-area 10, 11, or both included in keyhole).

See Appendix H for additional information.

A total of 14 Scenarios were evaluated for all Regions. Thus, there are a total of 22 x 14 = 308 evacuation cases. Table 6-2 is a description of all Scenarios.

Each combination of Region and Scenario implies a specific population to be evacuated.

Table 6-3 presents the percentage of each population group estimated to evacuate for each Scenario.Table 6-4 presents the vehicle counts for each Scenario for an evacuation of Region R03 -the entire EPZ.LaSalle County Generating Station 6-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 The vehicle estimates presented in Section 3 are peak values. These peak values are adjusted depending on the Scenario and Region being considered, using Scenario and Region specific percentages, such that the average population is considered for each evacuation case. The Scenario percentages are presented in Table 6-3, while the regional percentages are provided in Table H-i. The percentages presented in Table 6-3 were determined as follows: The number of residents with commuters during the week (when workforce is at its peak) is the product of 49% (the number of households with at least one commuter -see Figure F-3) and 49% (the number of households with a commuter that would await the return of the commuter prior to evacuating

-see Figure F-5) which equals 24%. See assumption 3 in Section 2.3. It is estimated for weekend and evening scenarios that 10% of households with returning commuters will have a commuter at work during those times.Employment is assumed to be at its peak (100%) during the winter, midweek, midday scenarios.

Employment is reduced slightly (96%) for summer, midweek, midday scenarios.

This is based on the estimation that 50% of the employees commuting into the EPZ will be on vacation for a week during the approximate 12 weeks of summer. It is further estimated that those taking vacation will be uniformly dispersed throughout the summer with approximately 4% of employees vacationing each week. It is further estimated that only 10% of the employees are working in the evenings and during the weekends.Transient activity is estimated to be at its peak (100%) during summer weekends since all transient facilities are open and operational.

Transient activity during the week in the summertime is estimated to be half (50%) of the weekend peak. Transient activity is estimated to be less during winter weekends and weekdays, 15% and 10%, respectively, due to the large number of marinas and parks within the EPZ that are closed during winter months. Since there are no lodging facilities, campgrounds are the only facilities offering overnight accommodations.

As such, transient activity during the evening is estimated to be 45% in the summer and 5% in the winter.As noted in the shadow footnote to Table 6-3, the shadow percentages are computed using a base of 20% (see assumption 5 in Section 2.2); to include the employees within the shadow region who may choose to evacuate, the voluntary evacuation is multiplied by a scenario-specific proportion of employees to permanent residents in the shadow region. For example, using the values provided in Table 6-4 for Scenario 1, the shadow percentage is computed as follows: 20% x + 1,077 ' 22%0 x 2,304 + 7,287)One special event -Seneca Shipyard Days -was considered as Scenario 13. Thus, the special event traffic is 100% evacuated for Scenario 13, and 0% for all other scenarios.

The Illinois National Guard Training Center is a Collective Training Center wherein soldiers temporarily stay for drills. Drill periods typically consist of one weekend per month and one LaSalle County Generating Station 6-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 annual two-week period'. As such, utilization peaks during weekends and evenings.

It is estimated weekday utilization is a quarter of the weekend utilization since the National Guard is a part-time commitment.

It is estimated that summer school enrollment is approximately 10% of enrollment during the regular school year for summer, midweek, midday scenarios.

School is not in session during weekends and evenings, thus no buses for school children are needed under those circumstances.

As discussed in Section 7, schools are in session during the winter season, midweek, midday and 100% of buses will be needed under those circumstances.

Transit buses for the transit-dependent population are set to 100% for all scenarios as it is assumed that the transit-dependent population is present in the EPZ for all scenarios.

External traffic is estimated to be reduced by 60% during evening scenarios and is 100% for all other scenarios.

1 http://www.nationalguard.com/guard-basics/faq LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 6-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 6-1. Description of Evacuation Regions Region DescriptionSub-area ReinDsrpin-1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 13 17 R01 2-Mile Ring R02 5-Mile Ring R03 Fl P Sub-area Region Wind Direction Toward: 3 4 5 6 7 1 8 9 10 11 13 17 N/A N, NNE, NE, ENE, E, ESE Refer to Region R01 R04 SE, SSE, S N/A SSW Refer to Region R02 SW, WSW, W, WNW, NW, R05 Region Wind Direction Toward: Sub-area 4 R06 N R07 NNE R09 R12SE R13 s R14 SSW R15 SW, WSW R16 W R17 WNW R18 NW iR19 NNW Regin Wnd irecionTowrd:Sub-area R20 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 13 17 N/A N, NNE, NE, ENE, E, ESE Refer to Region R01 R21 SE, SSE, S I I I I 1-N/A SSW Refer to Region R02 R22 SW, WSW, W, WNW, NW, NNW Sub-area(s)

Shelter-in-Place Note: The entire city of Marseilles evacuates when either Sub-area 10 or Sub-area 11 evacuates.

See Appendix H (page H-1) for additional information.

6-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 6-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure 6-1. LAS EPZ Sub-areas LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 6-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 6-2. Evacuation Scenario Definitions Scnai Seaso 2 Da of Wee Tim of Day Wete Speia 1 Summer Midweek Midday Good None 2 Summer Midweek Midday Rain None 3 Summer Weekend Midday Good None 4 Summer Weekend Midday Rain None MdSummer week, Evening Good None Sume Weekend 6 Winter Midweek Midday Good None 7 Winter Midweek Midday Rain None 8 Winter Midweek Midday Snow None 9 Winter Weekend Midday Good None 10 Winter Weekend Midday Rain None 11 Winter Weekend Midday Snow None 12 Winter Midweek, Evening Good None Summer Midweek, Evening Good Seneca Shipyard Weekend Days Single Lane 14 Summer Midweek Midday Good Closure on 1-80 Westbound 2 Winter assumes that school is in session (also applies to spring and autumn). Summer assumes that school is not in session.LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 6-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 6-3. Percent of Population Groups Evacuating for Various Scenarios Reunn Reunn Spca Trinn Scol Tasi.hog 1 2e % So 96% 50o 22% 0t 25e 10e Traffic 1 24% 76% 96% 50% 22% 0% 25% 10% 100% 100%2 24% 76% 96% 50% 22% 0% 25% 10% 100% 100%3 2% 98% 10% 100% 20% 0% 100% 0% 100% 100%4 2% 98% 10% 100% 20% 0% 100% 0% 100% 100%5 2% 98% 10% 45% 20% 0% 100% 0% 100% 40%6 24% 76% 100% 10% 22% 0% 25% 100% 100% 100%7 24% 76% 100% 10% 22% 0% 25% 100% 100% 100%8 24% 76% 100% 10% 22% 0% 25% 100% 100% 100%9 2% 98% 10% 15% 20% 0% 100% 0% 100% 100%10 2% 98% 10% 15% 20% 0% 100% 0% 100% 100%11 2% 98% 10% 15% 20% 0% 100% 0% 100% 100%12 2% 98% 10% 5% 20% 0% 100% 0% 100% 40%13 2% 98% 10% 45% 20% 100% 100% 0% 100% 40%14 24% 76% 96% 50% 22% 0% 25% 10% 100% 100%Resident Households with Commuters

........ Households of EPZ residents who await the return of commuters prior to beginning the evacuation trip.Resident Households with No Commuters...

Households of EPZ residents who do not have commuters or will not await the return of commuters prior to beginning the evacuation trip.Employees

....................................................

EPZ employees who live outside the EPZ Transients

.....................................................

People who are in the EPZ at the time of an accident for recreational or other (non-employment) purposes.Shadow .........................................................

Residents and employees in the shadow region (outside of the EPZ) who will spontaneously decide to relocate during the evacuation.

The basis for the values shown is a 20% relocation of shadow residents along with a proportional percentage of shadow employees.

Special Event ................................................

Additional vehicles in the EPZ due to the identified special event.National Guard Training Center ....................

Military training center wherein all personnel drive themselves and would evacuate using their personal vehicles.School and Transit Buses ..............................

Vehicle-equivalents present on the road during evacuation servicing schools and transit-dependent people (1 bus is equivalent to 2 passenger vehicles).

External Through Traffic ...............................

Traffic on interstates/freeways and major arterial roads at the start of the evacuation.

This traffic is stopped by access control 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> after the evacuation begins.LaSalle County Generating Station 6-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Table 6-4. Vehicle Estimates by Scenario 12,304 7,287 1,077 2,017 6,189 -70 13 14 5,516 24,487 2 oshod 2,304old 1,7N7a3ti16728o,076,8a14,8 2 2,304 7,287 1,077 2,017 6,189 70 13 14 5,516 24,487 3 230 9,361 112 4,034 5,629 -278 14 5,516 25,174 4 230 9,361 112 4,034 5,629 -278 14 5,516 25,174 5 230 9,361 112 1,815 5,629 -278 -14 2,206 19,645 6 2,304 7,287 1,122 403 6,215 -70 134 14 5,516 23,065 7 2,304 7,287 1,122 403 6,215 -70 134 14 5,516 23,065 8 2,304 7,287 1,122 403 6,215 -70 134 14 5,516 23,065 9 230 9,361 112 605 5,629 -278 -14 5,516 21,745 10 230 9,361 112 605 5,629 -278 -14 5,516 21,745 11 230 9,361 112 605 5,629 -278 -14 5,516 21,745 12 230 9,361 112 202 5,629 -278 -14 2,206 18,032 13 230 9,361 112 1,815 5,629 652 278 -14 2,206 20,297 14 2,304 7,287 1,077 2,017 6,189 -70 13 14 5,516 24,487 Note: Vehicle estimates are for an evacuation of the entire EPZ (Region R03)LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 6-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 7 GENERAL POPULATION EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES (ETE)This section presents the ETE results of the computer analyses using the DYNEV II System described in Appendices B, C and D. These results cover the 22 regions within the LAS EPZ and the 14 Evacuation Scenarios discussed in Section 6.The ETE for all Evacuation Cases are presented in Table 7-1 and Table 7-2. These tables present the estimated times to clear the indicated population percentages from the Evacuation Regions for all Evacuation Scenarios.

The ETE for the 2-mile region in both staged and un-staged regions are presented in Table 7-3 and Table 7-4. Table 7-5 defines the Evacuation Regions considered.

The tabulated values of ETE are obtained from the DYNEV II System outputs which are generated at 5-minute intervals.

7.1 Voluntary

Evacuation and Shadow Evacuation"Voluntary evacuees" are people within the EPZ in Sub-areas for which an Advisory to Evacuate has not been issued, yet who elect to evacuate. "Shadow evacuation" is the voluntary outward movement of some people from the Shadow Region (outside the EPZ) for whom no protective action recommendation has been issued. Both voluntary and shadow evacuations are assumed to take place over the same time frame as the evacuation from within the impacted Evacuation Region.The ETE for the LAS EPZ addresses the issue of voluntary evacuees in the manner shown in Figure 7-1. Within the EPZ, 20 percent of people located in Sub-areas outside of the evacuation region who are not advised to evacuate, are assumed to elect to evacuate.

Similarly, it is assumed that 20 percent of those people in the Shadow Region will choose to leave the area.Figure 7-2 presents the area identified as the Shadow Region. This region extends radially from the plant to cover a region between the EPZ boundary and approximately 15 miles. The population and number of evacuating vehicles in the Shadow Region were estimated using the same methodology that was used for permanent residents within the EPZ (see Section 3.1). As discussed in Section 3.2, it is estimated that a total of 52,049 people reside in the Shadow Region; 20 percent of them would evacuate.

See Table 6-4 for the number of evacuating vehicles from the Shadow Region.Traffic generated within this Shadow Region, traveling away from the LAS site, has the potential for impeding evacuating vehicles from within the Evacuation Region. All ETE calculations include this shadow traffic movement.7.2 Staged Evacuation As defined in NUREG/CR-7002, staged evacuation consists of the following:

1. Sub-areas comprising the 2 mile region are advised to evacuate immediately.
2. Sub-areas comprising regions extending from 2 to 5 miles downwind are advised to shelter in-place while the 2 mile region is cleared.LaSalle County Generating Station 7-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
3. As vehicles evacuate the 2 mile region, people from 2 to 5 miles downwind continue preparation for evacuation while they shelter.4. The population sheltering in the 2 to 5 mile region is advised to evacuate when approximately 90% of the 2 mile region evacuating traffic crosses the 2 mile region boundary.5. Non-compliance with the shelter recommendation is the same as the shadow evacuation percentage of 20%.See Section 5.4.2 for additional information on staged evacuation.

7.3 Patterns

of Traffic Congestion during Evacuation Figure 7-3 through Figure 7-7 illustrate the patterns of traffic congestion that arise for the case when the entire EPZ (Region R03) is advised to evacuate during the summer, midweek, midday period under good weather conditions (Scenario 1).Traffic congestion, as the term is used here, is defined as Level of Service (LOS) F. LOS F is defined as follows (HCM 2010, page 5-5): The HCM uses LOS F to define operations that have either broken down (i.e., demand exceeds capacity) or have exceeded a specified service measure value, or combination of service measure values, that most users would consider unsatisfactory.

However, particularly for planning applications where different alternatives may be compared, analysts may be interested in knowing just how bad the LOS F condition is. Several measures are available to describe individually, or in combination, the severity of a LOS F condition:

  • Demand-to-capacity ratios describe the extent to which capacity is exceeded during the analysis period (e.g., by 1%, 15%, etc.);e Duration of LOS F describes how long the condition persists (e.g., 15 min, 1 h, 3 h); and-Spatial extent measures describe the areas affected by LOS F conditions.

These include measures such as the back of queue, and the identification of the specific intersection approaches or system elements experiencing LOS F conditions.

All highway "links" which experience LOS F are delineated in these figures by a thick red line; all others are lightly indicated.

Congestion develops rapidly around concentrations of population and traffic bottlenecks.

Figure 7-3 displays the traffic congestion within the EPZ 30 minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate (ATE). At this time, about 40% of transients and employees have begun their evacuation trips, as well as about 10% of the EPZ residents.

The only congested (LOS F) roadway within the EPZ at this time is N 2850th Rd eastbound.

This congestion is a result of the significant seasonal population (3,416 people evacuating in 1,871 vehicles) at Woodsmoke Ranch. Evacuees from Woodsmoke Ranch evacuate eastbound on N 2 8 5 0 th Rd to access County Road (CR) 25 northbound, and northbound on E 28th Rd to access CR 4 eastbound.

Both of these routes lead to stop signs at the intersections with the county roads LaSalle County Generating Station 7-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 for evacuees from Woodsmoke Ranch. There is significant traffic volume northbound on CR 25 leaving Seneca, which limits the number of vehicles that can turn left from N 28501h Rd (because of the stop sign), resulting in LOS F conditions on N 2 8 5 0 th Rd. All other roads in the study area are operating at or below capacity (LOS E). Traffic volume on CR 15 northbound leaving Marseilles is significant, with LOS D conditions in some areas.At 1 hour1.157407e-5 days <br />2.777778e-4 hours <br />1.653439e-6 weeks <br />3.805e-7 months <br /> after the ATE, Figure 7-4 displays peak congestion within the study area. At this time, approximately two thirds of evacuees have begun their evacuation trip and half the evacuees have successfully evacuated the EPZ. Congestion in the vicinity of Woodsmoke Ranch has intensified with N 2 8 5 0 th Rd eastbound, CR 4 eastbound and CR 25 northbound all operating at LOS F. CR 15 northbound leaving Marseilles is also operating at LOS F. Many vehicles access 1-80 to evacuate the area. However, due to congestion on the single lane ramps to access 1-80, some vehicles continue north on CR 15 to access Illinois State Route 71 (IL-71) northbound towards the reception center in Joliet. This results in pronounced congestion along CR 15 in the Shadow Region. Evacuation routes servicing Ottawa and Streator in the Shadow Region are also congested.

Note that there is no traffic congestion within the 2-mile radius or 5-mile radius of the plant, as all roadways are operating at LOS A at this time.At 1 hour1.157407e-5 days <br />2.777778e-4 hours <br />1.653439e-6 weeks <br />3.805e-7 months <br /> and 35 minutes after the ATE, as shown in Figure 7-5, all congestion within the EPZ has cleared with all routes operating at LOS D or better. Congestion persists northbound along CR 15 due to a stop sign at the intersection with IL-71. Congestion persists in Ottawa and Streator in the Shadow Region. At this time, almost 90% of vehicles have begun their evacuation trips, and 80% of vehicles have successfully evacuated the EPZ.At 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> and 10 minutes after the ATE, Figure 7-6 shows the last of the traffic volume (LOS B)along 1-80 clearing within the EPZ as access control is activated at 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> after the ATE to stop the flow of traffic along 1-80 through the area. Congestion persists in Ottawa as evacuees from the Shadow Region use local roads to access US-6 westbound.

Congestion has dissipated on all routes leaving Streator, except IL-23 southbound which has an all-way stop sign at the intersection with IL-17. At this time, 97% of vehicles have begun their evacuation trips and 95%have evacuated; these data indicate that the trip generation time is dictating the 1 0 0 th percentile ETE as evacuees who depart at this time are encountering no traffic congestion or delay.Finally at 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> and 25 minutes after the ATE (Figure 7-7) the last road within the Shadow Region to exhibit traffic congestion is IL-23 southbound leaving Streator.

This congestion clears 5 minutes later. Traffic congestion within Ottawa cleared at 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> and 45 minutes after the ATE.7.4 Evacuation Rates Evacuation is a continuous process, as implied by Figure 7-8 through Figure 7-21. These figures indicate the rate at which traffic flows out of the indicated areas for the case of an evacuation of the full EPZ (Region R03) under the indicated conditions.

One figure is presented for each scenario considered.

LaSalle County Generating Station 7-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 As indicated in Figure 7-8, there is typically a long "tail" to these distributions.

Vehicles begin to evacuate an area slowly at first, as people respond to the ATE at different rates. Then traffic demand builds rapidly (slopes of curves increase).

When the system becomes congested, traffic exits the EPZ at rates somewhat below capacity until some evacuation routes have cleared. As more routes clear, the aggregate rate of egress slows since many vehicles have already left the EPZ. Towards the end of the process, relatively few evacuation routes service the remaining demand.This decline in aggregate flow rate, towards the end of the process, is characterized by these curves flattening and gradually becoming horizontal.

Ideally, it would be desirable to fully saturate all evacuation routes equally so that all will service traffic near capacity levels and all will clear at the same time. For this ideal situation, all curves would retain the same slope until the end -thus minimizing evacuation time. In reality, this ideal is generally unattainable reflecting the spatial variation in population density, mobilization rates and in highway capacity over the EPZ.7.5 Evacuation Time Estimate (ETE) Results Table 7-1 and Table 7-2 present the ETE values for all 22 Evacuation Regions and all 14 Evacuation Scenarios.

Table 7-3 and Table 7-4 present the ETE values for the 2-Mile region for both staged and un-staged keyhole regions downwind to 5 miles. The tables are organized as follows: Tal Cotet ETE represents the elapsed time required for 90 percent of the 7-1 population within a Region, to evacuate from that Region. All Scenarios are considered, as well as Staged Evacuation scenarios.

ETE represents the elapsed time required for 100 percent of the 7-2 population within a Region, to evacuate from that Region. All Scenarios are considered, as well as Staged Evacuation scenarios.

ETE represents the elapsed time required for 90 percent of the 7-3 population within the 2-mile Region, to evacuate from that Region with both Concurrent and Staged Evacuations.

ETE represents the elapsed time required for 100 percent of the 7-4 population within the 2-mile Region, to evacuate from that Region with both Concurrent and Staged Evacuations.

The animation snapshots described above reflect the ETE statistics for the concurrent (un-staged) evacuation scenarios and regions, which are displayed in Figure 7-3 through Figure 7-7.There is no congestion within the 2- and 5-mile regions. There is congestion beyond the 5-mile radius along the routes leaving Marseilles and the roads in the vicinity of Woodsmoke Ranch.This is reflected in the ETE statistics:

LaSalle County Generating Station 7-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0

" The 9 0 th percentile ETE for Region RO0 (2-mile region) mimic trip generation time (due to the absence of traffic congestion in this area) and are generally between 1:15 (hr:min)and 1:30 for good weather and rain, and up to 1:50 for snow." The 9 0 th percentile ETE for Region R02 (5-mile region) also mimic trip generation time (due to the absence of traffic congestion in this area) and are generally 5 to 10 minutes longer than for Region RO0 because of the additional 3 miles that have to be driven to reach the boundary of the region." The 9 0 th percentile ETE for Region R03 (full EPZ) are 15 to 35 minutes longer than for Region R02 due to the congestion leaving Marseilles and in the vicinity of Woodsmoke Ranch." The 1 0 0 th percentile ETE for all regions are approximately equal to trip generation time as all traffic congestion within the EPZ is clear by 1 hour1.157407e-5 days <br />2.777778e-4 hours <br />1.653439e-6 weeks <br />3.805e-7 months <br /> and 35 minutes after the ATE.Comparison of Scenarios 5 and 13 in Table 7-1 indicates that the Special Event -Seneca Shipyard Days -does not impact ETE at the 90th or 100th percentiles.

The additional 652 vehicles present for the event increase local congestion in Seneca; however, the traffic congestion leaving Marseilles lasts longer and dictates the 9 0 th percentile ETE.Comparison of Scenarios 1 and 14 in Table 7-1 indicates that the roadway closure -one lane on 1-80 westbound (see Section 2.2, item 7 for additional information)

-increases 9 0 th percentile ETE by at most 10 minutes and has no impact on 100th percentile ETE. The single lane access ramps to 1-80 are bottlenecks such that the main thoroughfare of 1-80 is underutilized.

As such, the loss of a single lane on 1-80 does not significantly impact ETE.Despite the results of the roadway impact scenario, events such as adverse weather or traffic accidents which close a lane on a major evacuation route, could impact ETE. State and local police could consider traffic management tactics such as using the shoulder of the roadway as a travel lane or re-routing of traffic along other evacuation routes to avoid overwhelming any of the major evacuation routes. All efforts should be made to remove the blockage, particularly within the first 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> of the evacuation when most people begin their evacuation trip.7.6 Staged Evacuation Results Table 7-3 and Table 7-4 present a comparison of the ETE compiled for the concurrent (un-staged) and staged evacuation studies. Note that Regions R20 through R22 are the same geographic areas as Regions R02, R04, and R05, respectively.

The times shown in Table 7-3 and Table 7-4 are when the 2-mile region is 90% clear and 100% clear, respectively.

The objective of a staged evacuation strategy is to ensure the ETE for the 2-mile region is not impacted when evacuating people beyond 2 miles from the plant. As shown in Table 7-3 and Table 7-4, the ETE for the 2-mile region is unchanged when a staged evacuation is implemented.

The reason for this is that the nearest traffic congestion to the plant is in Marseilles and near Woodsmoke Ranch -well beyond the 5-mile radius. This congestion does not extend upstream to the extent that it penetrates to within the 2-mile radius.LaSalle County Generating Station 7-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 To determine the effect of staged evacuation on residents beyond the 2-mile Region, Regions R02, R04 and R05 are compared to Regions R20 through R22, respectively, in Table 7-1. The ETE for each region increases when staging evacuation with some regions increasing by up to 25 minutes. As shown in Figure 5-5, staging the evacuation causes a significant "spike" (sharp increase) in mobilization (trip-generation rate) of evacuating vehicles:

nearly 80 percent of the evacuating vehicles between 2 and 5 miles who have sheltered in place while residents within 2 miles evacuated, begin their evacuation trip over a 15 minute timeframe.

This spike oversaturates evacuation routes, increasing traffic congestion and prolongs ETE.In summary, the staged evacuation protective action strategy provides no benefit to evacuees from within the 2-mile Region and adversely impacts many evacuees located beyond 2 miles from LAS. Staged evacuation is not recommended.

7.7 Guidance

on Using ETE Tables The user first determines the percentile of population for which the ETE is sought (The NRC guidance calls for the 90th percentile).

The applicable value of ETE within the chosen Table may then be identified using the following procedure:

1. Identify the applicable Scenario:* Season" Summer" Winter (also Autumn and Spring)" Day of Week" Midweek" Weekend" Time of Day" Midday" Evening* Weather Condition" Good Weather" Rain" Snow* Special Event" Seneca Shipyard Days" Road Closure (One lane on 1-80 westbound)
  • Evacuation Staging" No, Staged Evacuation is not considered" Yes, Staged Evacuation is considered While these Scenarios are designed, in aggregate, to represent conditions throughout the year, some further clarification is warranted:

The conditions of a summer evening (either midweek or weekend) and rain are not explicitly identified in the Tables. For these conditions, Scenarios (2) and (4) apply.The conditions of a winter evening (either midweek or weekend) and rain are not LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 explicitly identified in the Tables. For these conditions, Scenarios (7) and (10) for rain apply.* The conditions of a winter evening (either midweek or weekend) and snow are not explicitly identified in the Tables. For these conditions, Scenarios (8) and (11) for snow apply.* The seasons are defined as follows: " Summer assumes that public schools are not in session." Winter (includes Spring and Autumn) considers that public schools are in session.* Time of Day: Midday implies the time over which most commuters are at work or are travelling to/from work.2. With the desired percentile ETE and Scenario identified, now identify the Evacuation Region:* Determine the projected azimuth direction of the plume (coincident with the wind direction).

This direction is expressed in terms of compass orientation:

towards N, NNE, NE, ...* Determine the distance that the Evacuation Region will extend from the nuclear power plant. The applicable distances and their associated candidate Regions are given below:* 2 Miles (Region R01)* To 5 Miles (Regions R02, R04, and R05)* To EPZ Boundary (Regions R03, R06 through R19)* Enter Table 7-5 and identify the applicable group of candidate Regions based on the distance that the selected Region extends from the plant. Select the Evacuation Region identifier in that row, based on the azimuth direction of the plume, from the first column of the Table.3. Determine the ETE Table based on the percentile selected.

Then, for the Scenario identified in Step 1 and the Region identified in Step 2, proceed as follows:* The columns of Table 7-1 through Table 7-4 are labeled with the Scenario numbers.Identify the proper column in the selected Table using the Scenario number defined in Step 1.* Identify the row in the table that provides ETE values for the Region identified in Step 2.* The unique data cell defined by the column and row so determined contains the desired value of ETE expressed in Hours:Minutes.

7-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Example It is desired to identify the ETE for the following conditions:

  • Sunday, August loth at 4:00 AM.* It is raining.* Wind direction is toward the northeast (NE).* Wind speed is such that the distance to be evacuated is judged to be a 5-mile radius and downwind to 10 miles (to EPZ boundary).
  • The desired ETE is that value needed to evacuate 90 percent of the population from within the impacted Region.* A staged evacuation is not desired.Table 7-1 is applicable because the 90th percentile ETE is desired. Proceed as follows: 1. Identify the Scenario as summer, weekend, evening and raining. Entering Table 7-1, it is seen that there is no match for these descriptors.

However, the clarification given above assigns this combination of circumstances to Scenario 4.2. Enter Table 7-5 and locate the Region described as "Evacuate 5-Mile Radius and Downwind to the EPZ Boundary" for wind direction toward the NE and read Region R08.3. Enter Table 7-1 to locate the data cell containing the value of ETE for Scenario 4 and Region R08. This data cell is in column (4) and in the row for Region R08; it contains the ETE value of 1:55.LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 7-1. Time to Clear the Indicated Area of 90 Percent of the Affected Population Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer Midweek Weekend Miwe Midweek Weekend MidweekMiwe Mdek Weekend Weekend Weekend Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Evening Midday Region Good Good Good Good Good Good Seea Roadway Rain Rain Ri Sn w eah Rai Da Siysr Weather RanWeather Ran Weather Weather Ri SnwWeather Ri Snw Weather Shpad Impact Days Entire 2-Mile Region, 5-Mile Region, and EPZ RO 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:15 1:30 1:30 1:50 1:20 1:20 1:45 1:25 1:15 1:20 R02 1:30 1:30 1:25 1:30 1:25 1:35 1:35 2:00 1:30 1:30 1:55 1:30 1:25 1:30 R03 1:55 2:00 1:55 1:55 1:45 2:00 2:00 2:15 1:55 1:55 2:10 1:50 1:45 2:05 2-Mile Region and Keyhole to 5 Miles R04 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:15 1:30 1:30 [ 1:50 1:25 1:25 1:45 1:25 1:15 1:20 ROS 1:30 1:30 1:25 1:30 1:20 1:35 1 1:35 2:00 1:25 1:30 1:55 1:30 1:20 1:30 5-Mile Region and Keyhole to EPZ Boundary R06 1:55 2:00 1:55 1:55 1:45 2:00 2:00 2:10 1:55 1:55 2:10 1:50 1:45 2:05 R07 1:55 1:55 1:55 1:55 1:45 2:00 2:00 2:10 1:55 1:55 2:05 1:50 1:45 1:55 R08 1:55 1:55 1:55 1:55 1:45 2:00 2:00 2:10 1:55 1:55 2:05 1:50 1:45 1:55 R09 1:35 1:35 1:30 1:30 1:30 1:40 1:45 2:10 1:30 1:30 2:00 1:35 1:30 1:35 RIO 1:35 1:35 1:30 1:30 1:25 1:40 1:40 2:05 1:30 1:30 2:00 1:35 1:25 1:35 R11 1:40 1:40 1:30 1:30 1:30 1:45 1:45 2:10 1:30 1:30 2:00 1:35 1:30 1:40 R12 1:35 1:35 1:25 1:30 1:25 1:40 1:40 2:05 1:30 1:30 2:00 1:30 1:25 1:35 R13 1:40 1:40 1:30 1:30 1:30 1:45 1:45 2:15 1:35 1:35 2:05 1:35 1:30 1:40 R14 1:40 1:40 1:30 1:30 1:30 1:45 1:45 2:15 1:35 1:35 2:05 1:35 1:30 1:40 RIS 1:40 1:40 1:30 1:30 1:30 1:45 1:45 2:15 1:35 1:35 2:05 1:35 1:30 1:40 R16 1:45 1:45 1:35 1:35 1:35 1:50 1:50 2:15 1:40 1:40 2:10 1:40 1:35 1:45 R17 1:55 2:00 1:50 1:55 1:45 2:00 2:00 2:15 1:55 1:55 2:10 1:50 1:45 2:05 R18 1:55 2:00 1:50 1:55 1:45 2:00 2:00 2:15 1:55 1:55 2:10 1:50 1:45 2:05 R19 1:55 1:55 1:55 1:55 1:45 2:00 2:00 2:15 1:50 1:55 2:10 1:45 1:45 2:05_ _ -Staged Evacuation Mile Region and Keyhole to 5 Miles R20 1:45 1:45 1:40 1:40 1:45 1:45 1:50 2:05 1:45 1:45 2:05 1:45 1:45 1:45 R21 1:25 1:25 1:25 1:25 1:20 1:35 1:35 1:55 1:30 1:30 1:55 1:35 1:20 1:25 R22 1:45 1:45 1:40 1:40 1:45 1:45 1:50 2:05 1:45 1:45 2:05 1:45 1:45 1:45 LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 0 0 Table 7-2. Time to Clear the Indicated Area of 100 Percent of the Affected Population Region Good Good GoodGododGod Snc Roadway Weather Ran Weather Ran Weather Weather Rain Snow Wahr Rain Snow Weather Shpad Iac_________

_______ _____ ________Entire 2-Mile Region, S-Mile Region, and EPZ ______________________

R01 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 4:30 3:30 3:30 4:30 3:30 T 3:30 3:30 R02 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 4:35 3:35 3:35 4:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 R03 3:40 j3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 4:40 3:40 3:40 4:40 -3:40 { 3:40 3:40________ _______ _____2-Mile Region and Keyhole to 5 Miles ___R04 f3:35 13:35 3:35 3:35 [3:35 J3:35 T3:35 [4:35 3:35 1 3:35 ]4:35 1 3:35 1 3:35 33 ROS 3:35 J3:35 J3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 4:35 13:35 3:35 ]4:35 3:35 J 3:35 33 S-Mile Region and Keyhole to EPZ Boundary R06 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 4:40 3:40 3:40 4:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 R07 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 4:40 3:40 3:40 4:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 R08 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 4:40 3:40 3:40 4:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 R09 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 4:40 3:40 3:40 4:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 R10 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 4:40 3:40 3:40 4:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 R11 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 4:40 3:40 3:40 4:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 R12 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 4:40 3:40 3:40 4:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 R13 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 4:40 3:40 3:40 4:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 R14 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 4:40 3:40 3:40 4:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 R1S 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 4:40 3:40 3:40 4:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 R16 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 4:40 3:40 3:40 4:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 R17 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 4:40 3:40 3:40 4:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 R18 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 4:40 3:40 3:40 4:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 R19 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 4:40 3:40 3:40 4:40 3:40 3:40 3:40_______ ____ _______ StagedEvacuation Mile Region and Keyhole to S Miles R20 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 4:35 3:35 3:35 4:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 R21 3:35 3:35 3:35 j3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 4:35 3:35 3:35 4:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 R22 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35_ 3:35 3:35 3:35 4:35 3:35 3:35 4:35 3:35 3:35 3-35 LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 7-3. Time to Clear 90 Percent of the 2-Mile Area within the Indicated Region Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer Midweek Midweek Midweek Midweek Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend weeken dweek Midweek Weekend Weekend Weekend Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Evening Midday Region Good Good Good Good Good Good Seneca Roadway Weather Rain Weather Rain Weather Weather Snow Weather Sno Weather Shipyard Impact Days Un-staged Evacuation Mile and S-Mile Region R01 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:15 1:30 1:30 1:50 1:20 1:20 1:45 1:25 1:15 1:20 R02 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:15 J 1:30 11:30 11:50 11:20 1:20 1:45 1:25 1:15 1:20 Un-staged Evacuation Mile Ring and Keyhole to S-Miles R04 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:15 1:30 1:30 1:50 1:20 1:20 1:45 1:25 1:15 1:20 ROS 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:15 1:30 11:30 11:50 11:20 1:20 1:45 1:25 1:15 1:20 Staged Evacuation Mile Region R20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:15 1:30 1 1:30 1 1:50 1:20 1:20 1:45 1:25 1:15 1:20 Staged Evacuation Mile Ring and Keyhole to 5 Miles R21 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:15 1:30 1:30 1:50 1:20 1:20 1:45 1:25 1:15 1:20 R22 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 11:15 1:30 11:30 11:50 1:20 11:20 1:45 1:25 1:15 1:20 LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 7-4. Time to Clear 100 Percent of the 2-Mile Area within the Indicated Region Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer Midweek Midweek Midweek Midweek Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend weeken dweek Midweek Weekend Weekend Weekend Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Evening Midday Region Good Good Good Good Good Good Seneca Roadway Weather Rain Weather Rain Weather Weather Rain Snow Weather Rain Snow Weather Shipyard Impact Days Un-staged Evacuation Mile and 5-Mile Region R01 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 4:30 3:30 3:30 4:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 R02 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 J 3:30 J 4:30 3:30 3:30 4:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 Un-staged Evacuation Mile Ring and Keyhole to S-Miles R04 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 4:30 3:30 3:30 4:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 ROS 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 13:30 13:30 1 4:30 3:30 3:30 4:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 Staged Evacuation Mile Region R20 3:30 3:30 1 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 1 3:30 1 4:30 1 3:30 3:30 4:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 Staged Evacuation Mile Ring and Keyhole to 5 Miles R21 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 4:30 3:30 3:30 4:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 R22 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 13:30 3:30 13:30 14:30 3:30 3:30 4:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 I Table 7-5. Description of Evacuation Regions I Sub-area*

I Region Description 1 21 3 I 4 1 5 1 6 I 7 I 8 I 9 1 10 1 11 1 13 1 17 1 R01 2-Mile Ring R02 5-Mile Ring I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I R03 Full EPZ Sub-area Region Wind Direction Toward: 1 1 2 1 3 14 15 16 17 18 191 10 1 11 1 13 1 17 N/A N, NNE, NE, ENE, E, ESE Refer to Region RO0 R04 SE, SSE, S N/A SSW Refer to Region R02 Sub-area Region Wind Direction Toward: 11 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 I 13 I 17 R20 5-Mile Ring i i i N/A N, NNE, NE, ENE, E, ESE Refer to Region R01 R21 SE, SSE, S N/A SSW Refer to Region R02 R22 SW, WSW, W, WNW, NW, NNW~Sub-area(s)

Shelter-in-Place Note: The entire city of Marseilles evacuates when either Sub-area 10 or Sub-area 11 evacuates.

See Appendix H (page H-i) for additional information.

LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 0 Figure 7-1. Voluntary Evacuation Methodology LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 TTh~ /1 -Lisbon V ____ --2 I J -10 5 710-e~ro~~fi *1 9-I-;" I- --A-Chill LcI,,Uq IdA N -'C-. -(4--RlnO44 Mino-Ii Crth L~aSulle NC Sell Noy ica-l Leonore Ub-area:O

&~ 11X It~hn g&C Sub-area::_1

23. -Pg a z Vsrrfna 47-, -VN V-j Eastn4 17 a ea -7 E I --ik")V ntent Legend* LAS~JSub-area S2,5, 10,15 Mile Rings Shadow Region I-I --C- -~Se, CI2Ci2C14~

L. ---t copy4Iictsrosaumapoa

.-~ Campus~Figure 7-2. LAS Shadow Region CflAJJ 7-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 0 I Congestion Patterns at 00:30 1 I f -I 21----Gvej-"I--/ '~ 1'~'~ /7/./!I Ia..a/ Utica'71-s L T"Ic Sui/J Sub-area:

11 93 Su rta:ýid Seneca area: Iý_ý13__ sub:ar4i:

3 'q';D" .1 0 -6 Mge araý: 7'0_&Sbo, K,.d"u C-N (;-,,dq C.-ty F Ch.. bon Sub-area:

6 AýSub-area:

9\carDon Bra &Sub-area:

13 1 7, Agn5man South Sub-area:17-LOS A Gmn,ýkl ojunty B a'1 Sub-area:

2 f I ostan Kdnple~y V8'V-ý Sub-rea;:4 r, s.0 SIfI, Coo?!Ran-o Sub-;rea: 5 ....I I.: ... .I .-- I. ...... L Legend* LAS I Sub-area 2,5,10,15 Mile Rings Shadow Region ci 5 10 Mies 11 1 DIM: 3/2412014 1, tl 11 CIWAýCSM B-0 IMD? 7 9W: E~fi;wO& E.1- Gemv Figure 7-3. Congestion Patterns at 30 Minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 II ... .. ...-- -I , ." 2 l-I Congestion Patterns at 01:00-71 A'" , _S u b~ a re a : 1 1 u N 17 Sub-area:

8 S 2"7- 23-- im-___K-d,,A __C-_ LAY Sub-area:

17/If Sub-area:

1 DD:l:tf -:f;flI -Su-ra 17* .......... 2 tan2-- ------- --G Legend. ,.* LAS N pub-area:

2 f I ________Ran-so 4 Su-aea N(+ ~ v'., (mtl' .+1ýo* ", +7 .< "/ 'I Sub-area , 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Shadow Region I CortEri" 8.iiu o ., I I :~DEwi..inh.

Eo,, 0.,,.~Figure 7-4. Congestion Patterns at 1 Hour after the Advisory to Evacuate LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 I Congestion Patterns at 01:351~reve Su -a 254;3~I W JW 4V Sub-areai:

31 I _ _1ý4 N 211154)I4d.

11.su rea:`i6-Tit 5ýneca Sub-area:

1'i N.>hann W,-Sub-area:9\

'--;-.. 0 Carbon 4IQ*"(I Bra -B Su-aea 17 Cr.,age a: 7lI pea IIa 10u =,1 t~tant 'St sub-area:2z-r , 4 -----------

t-S\Sub-area:

4L to ,S l, y Sub-[ -irea: 5 a I s Legend* LAS 42 Sub-area 2,5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Shadow Region is I.~ '/ ':/ ,,=i E-"'."./- -. F 0 5 10" " " 1Miles f N-.3(2/201M4 C° o _ O:aE U a1p I _ ...____U Ere~n. (S Cne, 14"COME1 Figure 7-5. Congestion Patterns at 1 Hour and 35 Minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-18 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 0I II .... ...Il162 I Congestion Patterns at 02:10 I U Lsbon -~n~re.yoQo A 6--.,- , ,.;n..dy C. ....Su S-rea: 6"6 Sub-are a:3 11. ...."sub-area:

Sub-area 179-T1 Legend 7.-,,,"-.)..;

  • LAS .'>r- " >VO;,). ;,; .~'? Subbareaa:2, 5, 10,15S Mile Rings -Shadow Region ... ......i1 Cpv~u ESR)Bn.,'p N._________________________

L £nr..d. Ef~WI.,. tho Figure 7-6. Congestion Patterns at 2 Hours and 10 Minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-19 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 I Congestion Patterns at 03:25 1 I -----------

--1-0621 1'47'4 1 .Sub-are a; 1 Thn~ca '- Su -are'a-7........

Le 4 Y r My Sub-area1 4 V5 71 K I t-'Sub~ie-ara:'

7'amrndy (uunW C Ms.-Sub-rea: 9-Sub-area:\

13 -CnsmaC Sub-aea: 1 E Sub-area:

2 Sub-area:

5 T ..-4 Legend* LAS I Sub-area 2, 5,10, 15 Mile Rings Shadow Region__________

1717 W-. 3/24t2014 I.KLDEgI. en onl Figure 7-7. Congestion Patterns at 3 Hours and 25 Minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-20 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good (Scenario 1)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ

  • 90%0 100%25 bfl 20 E-Mr~ 15'UC GJ~10 U,,> 5 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)240 Figure 7-8. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 1 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Midday, Rain (Scenario 2)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%25 tw 20 4-(U 7 S15 0.g C 10> 5 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)240 Figure 7-9. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 2 for Region R03 7-21 KID Engineering, P.C.LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-21 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Weekend, Midday, Good (Scenario 3)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%25 tw 20 4-UJ> 5 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)240 Figure 7-10. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 3 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Weekend, Midday, Rain (Scenario 4)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ* 90%

  • 100%25 4-.M Uj 20 115 0.r10 5 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)240 Figure 7-11. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 4 for Region R03 LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-22 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Weekend, Evening, Good (Scenario 5)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ

  • 90% 0 100%16 14 t0-12 4- 4 10> '1A 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)210 240 Figure 7-12. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 5 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Midday, Good (Scenario 6)-2-Mile Region Mile Region IIEntire EPZ 0 90%0 100%C Ui M 0 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)210 240 Figure 7-13. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 6 for Region R03 LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-23 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Midday, Rain (Scenario 7)-2-Mile Region Mile Region EPZ 0 90% 6 100%C 4-UC CD 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)240 Figure 7-14. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 7 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Midday, Snow (Scenario 8)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90%0 100%20 18 bf 16 C 14 2UM 12 Uj 2 10 8"C 6 4 2 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)270 300 Figure 7-15. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 8 for Region R03 LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-24 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Weekend, Midday, Good (Scenario 9)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%20 18 bf 16* -_14 OU'c 12 Ui =10 8:E 6 0 4> 4 2 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)210 240 Figure 7-16. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 9 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Weekend, Midday, Rain (Scenario 10)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90%0 100%U Uj 03 0 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)210 240 Figure 7-17. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 10 for Region R03 LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-25 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Weekend, Midday, Snow (Scenario 11)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ

  • 90%0 100%r 4-i -=Eu 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)270 300 Figure 7-18. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 11 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Weekend, Evening, Good (Scenario 12)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ

  • 90%
  • 100%16 14 bo C 12 Ol 010 c: U, 4 2 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)210 240 Figure 7-19. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 12 for Region R03 0 LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-26 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Weekend, Evening, Good, Special Event (Scenario 13)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -rEntire EPZ

  • 90% 0 100%18 16-14 S 4 2 03 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)210 240 Figure 7-20. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 13 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good, Roadway Impact (Scenario 14)2-Mile Region Mile Region wEntire EPZ 0 90% 0/100%40 LU CD Iii C (U In 0-C I-25 20 15 10 5 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)210 240 Figure 7-21. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 14 for Region R03 LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-27 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 8 TRANSIT-DEPENDENT AND SPECIAL FACILITY EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES This section details the analyses applied and the results obtained in the form of evacuation time estimates for transit vehicles.

The demand for transit service reflects the needs of three population groups: (1) residents with no vehicles available; (2) residents of special facilities such as schools, preschools, day camps, and medical facilities (3) homebound special needs population.

These transit vehicles mix with the general evacuation traffic that is comprised mostly of"passenger cars" (pc's). The presence of each transit vehicle in the evacuating traffic stream is represented within the modeling paradigm described in Appendix D as equivalent to two pc's.This equivalence factor represents the longer size and more sluggish operating characteristics of a transit vehicle, relative to those of a pc.Transit vehicles must be mobilized in preparation for their respective evacuation missions.Specifically:

  • Bus drivers must be alerted* They must travel to the bus depot* They must be briefed there and assigned to a route or facility These activities consume time. It is estimated that bus mobilization time will average approximately 90 minutes for schools and transit dependent buses extending from the Advisory to Evacuate, to the time when buses first arrive at the facility to be evacuated.

During this mobilization period, other mobilization activities are taking place. One of these is the action taken by parents, neighbors, relatives and friends to pick up children from school prior to the arrival of buses, so that they may join their families.

Virtually all studies of evacuations have concluded that this "bonding" process of uniting families is universally prevalent during emergencies and should be anticipated in the planning process. The current public information disseminated to residents of the LAS EPZ indicates that schoolchildren will be evacuated to relocation centers, and that parents should pick schoolchildren up at the relocation centers.As discussed in Section 2, this study assumes a fast breaking general emergency.

Therefore, children are evacuated to relocation centers. Picking up children at school could add to traffic congestion at the schools, delaying the departure of the buses evacuating schoolchildren, which may have to return in a subsequent "wave" to the EPZ to evacuate the transit-dependent population.

This report provides estimates of buses under the assumption that no children will be picked up by their parents (in accordance with NUREG/CR-7002), to present an upper bound estimate of buses required.

This study assumes that preschools and day camps are also evacuated to relocation centers and parents will pick up these children at the relocation centers.The procedure for computing transit-dependent ETE is to:* Estimate demand for transit service LaSalle County Generating Station 8-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0

  • Estimate time to perform all transit functions* Estimate route travel times to the EPZ boundary and to the relocation centers and reception centers 8.1 Transit Dependent People Demand Estimate The telephone survey (see Appendix F) results were used to estimate the portion of the population requiring transit service based on the percentage of households with no vehicle available.

Table 8-1 presents estimates of transit-dependent people. Note:* Estimates of persons requiring transit vehicles include schoolchildren.

For those evacuation scenarios where children are at school when an evacuation is ordered, separate transportation is provided for the schoolchildren.

The actual need for transit vehicles by residents is thereby less than the given estimates.

However, estimates of transit vehicles are not reduced when schools are in session.It is reasonable and appropriate to consider that many transit-dependent persons will evacuate by ride-sharing with neighbors, friends or family. For example, nearly 80 percent of those who evacuated from Mississauga, Ontario who did not use their own cars, shared a ride with neighbors or friends (IES, 1981). Other documents report that approximately 70 percent of transit dependent persons were evacuated via ride sharing. We will adopt a conservative estimate that 50 percent of transit dependent persons will ride share, in accordance with NUREG/CR-7002.

The estimated number of bus trips needed to service transit-dependent persons is based on an estimate of average bus occupancy of 30 persons at the conclusion of the bus run. Transit vehicle seating capacities typically equal or exceed 60 children on average (roughly equivalent to 40 adults). If transit vehicle evacuees are two thirds adults and one third children, then the number of "adult seats" taken by 30 persons is 20 + (2/3 xl0) = 27. On this basis, the average load factor anticipated is (27/40) x 100 = 68 percent. Thus, if the actual demand for service exceeds the estimates of Table 8-1 by 50 percent, the demand for service can still be accommodated by the available bus seating capacity.[20 + (2 x 10)] + 40 x 1.5 = 1.00 Table 8-1 indicates that transportation must be provided for 203 people. Therefore, a total of 7 bus runs are required to transport this population to reception centers.To illustrate this estimation procedure, we calculate the number of persons, P, requiring public transit or ride-share, and the number of buses, B, required for the LAS EPZ: P = (EPZ Population

+ Average HH Size of EPZ) x % of HH with 0 Vehicles x Average HH Size of HH with 0 Vehicles LaSalle County Generating Station 8-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 P = (17,491 + 2.30) x 4.28% x 1.25 = 406 B = (0.5 x P) + 30 = 7 According to the telephone survey results, 4.28% of households do not have access to a vehicle (Figure F-2); there are 1.25 people per house -on average -in households with no vehicles available.

The estimate of transit-dependent population in Table 8-1 far exceeds the number of registered transit-dependent persons in the EPZ as provided by local OROs (discussed below in Section 8.5). This is consistent with the findings of NUREG/CR-6953, Volume 2, in that a large majority of the transit-dependent population within the EPZs of U.S. nuclear plants does not register with their local emergency response agency.8.2 School Population -Transit Demand Table 8-2 presents the school, preschool, and day camp population and transportation requirements for the direct evacuation of all facilities within the EPZ for the 2012 school year.The column in Table 8-2 entitled "Buses Required" specifies the number of buses required for each school under the following set of assumptions and estimates:

  • No students will be picked up by their parents prior to the arrival of the buses.* While many high school students commute to school using private automobiles (as discussed in Section 2.4 of NUREG/CR-7002), the estimate of buses required for school evacuation do not consider the use of these private vehicles.Bus capacity, expressed in students per bus, is set to 70 for primary schools and preschools and 50 for day camps, middle and high schools.Those staff members who do not accompany the students will evacuate in their private vehicles.No allowance is made for student absenteeism, typically 3 percent daily.It is recommended that the counties in the EPZ introduce procedures whereby the schools are contacted prior to the dispatch of buses from the depot, to ascertain the current estimate of students to be evacuated.

In this way, the number of buses dispatched to the schools will reflect the actual number needed. The need for buses would be reduced by any high school students who have evacuated using private automobiles (if permitted by school authorities).

Those buses originally allocated to evacuate schoolchildren that are not needed due to children being picked up by their parents, can be gainfully assigned to service other facilities or those persons who do not have access to private vehicles or to ride-sharing.

Table 8-3 presents a list of the relocation centers for each school, preschool, and day camp in the EPZ. Children will be transported to these schools where they will be subsequently retrieved by their respective families.LaSalle County Generating Station 8-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0

8.3 Medical

Facility Demand Table 8-4 presents the census of medical facilities in the EPZ. A total of 210 people have been identified as living in, or being treated in, these facilities.

The current census for each facility was provided by Exelon and by county emergency management personnel.

The number of ambulatory, wheelchair-bound and bedridden patients at Ottawa Friendship House was provided by county emergency management personnel.

The number of ambulatory, wheel-chair bound and bedridden patients at Heritage Manor and Rivershores Center was approximated based on percentages from similar facilities within nuclear power plant EPZs (Quad Cities Generating Station and Clinton Power Station, both of which are in the state of Illinois) with comparable demographics.

The transportation requirements for the medical facility population are also presented in Table 8-4. The number of wheelchair bus runs assumes 15 wheelchairs per trip, and the number of bus runs estimated assumes 30 ambulatory patients per trip. Ambulances are not needed to evacuate the medical facilities within the LAS EPZ since there are no bedridden people at these facilities.

8.4 Evacuation

Time Estimates for Transit Dependent People EPZ bus resources are assigned to evacuating schoolchildren (if school is in session at the time of the ATE) as the first priority in the event of an emergency.

In the event that the allocation of buses dispatched from the depots to the various facilities and to the bus routes is somewhat"inefficient", or if there is a shortfall of available drivers, then there may be a need for some buses to return to the EPZ from the reception or relocation center after completing their first evacuation trip, to complete a "second wave" of providing transport service to evacuees.

For this reason, the ETE for the transit-dependent population will be calculated for both a one wave transit evacuation and for two waves. Of course, if the impacted Evacuation Region is other than R03 (the entire EPZ), then there will likely be ample transit resources relative to demand in the impacted Region and this discussion of a second wave would likely not apply.When school evacuation needs are satisfied, subsequent assignments of buses to service the transit-dependent should be sensitive to their mobilization time. Clearly, the buses should be dispatched after people have completed their mobilization activities and are in a position to board the buses when they arrive at the pick-up points.Evacuation Time Estimates for transit trips were developed using both good weather and adverse weather conditions.

Figure 8-1 presents the chronology of events relevant to transit operations.

The elapsed time for each activity will now be discussed with reference to Figure 8-1.Activity:

Mobilize Drivers (A-B-)BC)Mobilization is the elapsed time from the Advisory to Evacuate until the time the buses arrive at the facility to be evacuated.

It is assumed that for a rapidly escalating radiological emergency with no observable indication before the fact, school bus drivers would likely require 90 LaSalle County Generating Station 8-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 minutes to be contacted, to travel to the depot, be briefed, and to travel to the transit-dependent facilities.

Mobilization time is slightly longer in adverse weather -100 minutes when raining, 110 minutes when snowing.LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Activity:

Board Passengers (C-MD)A loading time of 15 minutes (20 minutes for rain and 25 minutes for snow) for school buses is assumed.For multiple stops along a pick-up route, (transit-dependent bus routes) estimation of travel time must allow for the delay associated with stopping and starting at each pick-up point. The time, t, required for a bus to decelerate at a rate, "a", expressed in ft/sec/sec, from a speed,"v", expressed in ft/sec, to a stop, is t = v/a. Assuming the same acceleration rate and final speed following the stop yields a total time, T, to service boarding passengers:

T=t+B+t=B+2t=B

++/- , a Where B = Dwell time to service passengers.

The total distance, "s" in feet, travelled during the deceleration and acceleration activities is: s = v 2/a. If the bus had not stopped to service passengers, but had continued to travel at speed, v, then its travel time over the distance, s, would be: s/v = v/a. Then the total delay (i.e. pickup time, P) to service passengers is: a a Assigning reasonable estimates:

B = 50 seconds: a generous value for a single passenger, carrying personal items, to board per stop S v = 25 mph = 37 ft/sec* a = 4 ft/sec/sec, a moderate average rate Then, P = 1 minute per stop. Allowing 30 minutes pick-up time per bus run implies 30 stops per run, for good weather. It is assumed that bus acceleration and speed will be less in rain; total loading time is 40 minutes per bus in rain, 50 minutes in snow.Activity:

Travel to EPZ Boundary (D--E)School, Preschool, and Day Camp Evacuation Transportation resources available were provided by Exelon and are summarized in Table 8-5.Also included in the table is the number of buses needed to evacuate schools, preschools, day camps, medical facilities, transit-dependent population, and homebound special needs population (discussed below in Section 8.5). These numbers indicate there are sufficient resources available to evacuate all transit-dependent people in a single wave.The buses servicing the schools, preschools, and day camps are ready to begin their evacuation trips at 105 minutes after the advisory to evacuate -90 minutes mobilization time plus 15 minutes loading time -in good weather. The UNITES software discussed in Section 1.3 was used to define bus routes along the most likely path from a school being evacuated to the EPZ boundary, traveling toward the appropriate relocation center. This is done in UNITES by interactively selecting the series of nodes from the school to the EPZ boundary.

Each bus route is given an identification number and is written to the DYNEV II input stream. DYNEV computes the route length and outputs the average speed for each 5 minute interval, for each bus route.LaSalle County Generating Station 8-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 The specified bus routes are documented in Table 8-6 (refer to the maps of the link-node analysis network in Appendix K for node locations).

Data provided by DYNEV during the appropriate timeframe depending on the mobilization and loading times (i.e., 100 to 105 minutes after the advisory to evacuate for good weather) were used to compute the average speed for each route, as follows: Average Speed (p)Z;11 length of link i (mi) 60 min.1lhr.Deay current.on link i (mn.) + length of link i (mi.) 60 min.Delay~(m.)

onlhr.(mn)

L= ~~~current speed on link imi 1hr The average speed computed (using this methodology) for the buses servicing each of the schools, preschools, and day camps in the EPZ is shown in Table 8-7 through Table 8-9 for school, preschool and day camp evacuation, and in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13 for the transit vehicles evacuating transit-dependent persons, which are discussed later. The travel time to the EPZ boundary was computed for each bus using the computed average speed and the distance to the EPZ boundary along the most likely route out of the EPZ. The travel time from the EPZ boundary to the Relocation Center or Reception Center was computed assuming an average speed of 55 mph, 50 mph, and 45 mph for good weather, rain and snow, respectively.

Speeds were reduced in Table 8-7 through Table 8-9 and in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13 to 55 mph (50 mph for rain and 45 mph for snow) for those calculated bus speeds which exceed 45 mph, as the school bus speed limit for state routes in Illinois is 55 mph.Table 8-7 (good weather), Table 8-8 (rain) and Table 8-9 (snow) present the following evacuation time estimates (rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes) for schools, preschools, and day camps in the EPZ: (1) The elapsed time from the Advisory to Evacuate until the bus exits the EPZ; and (2) The elapsed time until the bus reaches the Relocation Center (R.C.). The evacuation time out of the EPZ can be computed as the sum of times associated with Activities A->B->C, C-)D, and D->E (For example: 90 min. + 15 + 1 = 1:50 for Grace Church-Rhema Christian Academy, in good weather, rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes).

The average ETE for a single-wave evacuation of schools, preschools and day camps is equal to the 90th percentile ETE for the general population for an evacuation of the entire EPZ (Region R03). The evacuation time to the Relocation Center is determined by adding the time associated with Activity E->F (discussed below), to this EPZ evacuation time.Evacuation of Transit-Dependent Population The buses dispatched from the depots to service the transit-dependent evacuees will be scheduled so that they arrive at their respective routes after their passengers have completed their mobilization.

As shown in Figure 5-4 (Residents with no Commuters), the majority (90%)LaSalle County Generating Station 8-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 of evacuees will complete their mobilization when the buses will begin their routes, approximately 90 minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate.Those buses servicing the transit-dependent evacuees will first travel along their pick-up routes, then proceed out of the EPZ. The state and county emergency plans do not define bus routes or pick-up points to service the transit dependent population.

The 7 bus routes shown graphically in Figure 8-2 and described in Table 8-10 were designed as part of this study to service the major routes through each Sub-area, with the exception of Sub-area 9 due to the limited population and absence of major evacuation routes within Sub-area 9. It is assumed that residents will walk to and congregate along these routes to flag down a bus, and that they can arrive at the stop/route within the 90 minute bus mobilization time during good weather (100 minutes and 110 minutes in rain and snow, respectively).

Due to the high transit-dependent population of Marseilles within Sub-area 10, more buses are assigned to Sub-area 10 than any other Sub-area.

As such, two unique routes were developed for Sub-area 10 (one is combined with Sub-area 6; see Table 8-10).As previously discussed, a pickup time of 30 minutes (good weather) is estimated for 30 individual stops to pick up passengers, with an average of one minute of delay associated with each stop. Longer pickup times of 40 minutes and 50 minutes are used for rain and snow, respectively.

The travel distance along the respective pick-up routes within the EPZ is estimated using the UNITES software.

Bus travel times within the EPZ are computed using average speeds computed by DYNEV, using the aforementioned methodology that was used for school, preschool and day camp evacuation.

Table 8-11 through Table 8-13 present the transit-dependent population evacuation time estimates for each bus route calculated using the above procedures for good weather, rain and snow, respectively.

For example, the ETE for the bus route servicing Sub-areas 1, 2, and 5 is computed as 90 + 10 + 30 = 2:10 for good weather. Here, 10 minutes is the time to travel 9 miles at 55 mph, the average speed output by the model for this route starting at 90 minutes.The ETE for a second wave (discussed below) is presented in the event there is a shortfall of available buses or bus drivers, as previously discussed.

Activity:

Travel to Reception Centers (E->F)The distances from the EPZ boundary to the reception centers are measured using GIS software along the most likely route from the EPZ exit point to the reception center. The reception centers are mapped in Figure 10-1. For a one-wave evacuation, this travel time outside the EPZ does not contribute to the ETE. For a two-wave evacuation, the ETE for buses must be considered separately, since it could exceed the ETE for the general population.

Assumed bus speeds of 55 mph, 50 mph, and 45 mph for good weather, rain, and snow, respectively, will be applied for this activity for buses servicing the transit-dependent population.

Activity:

Passengers Leave Bus (F->G)A bus can empty within 5 minutes. The driver takes a 10 minute break.LaSalle County Generating Station 8-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Activity:

Bus Returns to Route for Second Wave Evacuation (G->C)The buses assigned to return to the EPZ to perform a "second wave" evacuation of transit-dependent evacuees will be those that have already evacuated transit-dependent people who mobilized more quickly. The first wave of transit-dependent people depart the bus, and the bus then returns to the EPZ, travels to its route and proceeds to pick up more transit-dependent evacuees along the route. The travel time back to the EPZ is equal to the travel time to the reception center.The second-wave ETE for the bus route servicing Sub-areas 1, 2, and 5 is computed as follows for good weather: Bus arrives at reception center at 2:29 in good weather (2:10 to exit EPZ + 19 minute travel time to reception center).Bus discharges passengers (5 minutes) and driver takes a 10-minute rest: 15 minutes.Bus returns to EPZ and completes second route: 19 minutes (equal to travel time to reception center) + 10 minutes (9 miles @ 55 mph to return to the start of the route)+ 10 minutes (9 miles @ 55 mph to traverse the route providing second-wave bus service)=

39 minutes* Bus completes pick-ups along route: 30 minutes.* Bus exits EPZ at time 2:10 + 0:19 + 0:15 + 0:39 + 0:30 = 3:55 (rounded to nearest 5 minutes) after the Advisory to Evacuate.The ETE for the completion of the second wave for all transit-dependent bus routes are provided in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13. The average ETE for a one-wave evacuation of transit-dependent people is about 15 minutes longer than the ETE for the general population at the 9 0 th percentile for an evacuation of the entire EPZ (Region R03). The two-wave evacuation of transit-dependent people is approximately 2 to 2.5 hours5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br /> longer than the ETE for the general population at the 9 0 th percentile for an evacuation of the entire EPZ.Evacuation of Medical Facilities The evacuation of these facilities is similar to school evacuation except: Buses are assigned on the basis of 30 patients to allow for staff to accompany the patients.* Wheelchair buses can accommodate 15 patients.* Loading times of 1 minute and 5 minutes per patient are assumed for ambulatory patients and wheelchair bound patients, respectively.

Table 8-4 indicates that 3 bus runs and 11 wheelchair bus runs are needed to service all of the medical facilities in the EPZ. According to Table 8-5, the counties can collectively provide 442 buses, 36 wheelchair capable vehicles, and 27 ambulances.

Thus, there are ample resources to evacuate the ambulatory and wheelchair-bound persons from the medical facilities in a single wave.LaSalle County Generating Station 8-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0

.As is done for the schools, it is estimated that mobilization time averages 90 minutes (100 in rain and 110 in snow). Specially trained medical support staff (working their regular shift) will be on site to assist in the evacuation of patients.

Additional staff (if needed) could be mobilized over this same 90 minute timeframe.

Table 8-14 through Table 8-16 summarize the ETE for medical facilities within the EPZ for good weather, rain, and snow. Average speeds output by the model for Scenario 6 (Scenario 7 for rain and Scenario 8 for snow) Region 3, capped at 55 mph (50 mph for rain and 45 mph for snow), are used to compute travel time to EPZ boundary.

The travel time to the EPZ boundary is computed by dividing the distance to the EPZ boundary by the average travel speed. The ETE is the sum of the mobilization time, total passenger loading time, and travel time out of the EPZ. Concurrent loading on multiple buses and wheelchair buses at capacity is assumed such that the maximum loading times for buses and wheelchair buses are 30 and 75 minutes, respectively.

All ETE are rounded to the nearest 5 minutes. For example, the calculation of ETE for Heritage Manor with 29 ambulatory residents during good weather is: ETE: 90 + 1x 29 + 1= 120 min. or 2:00 It is assumed that the medical facility population is directly evacuated to appropriate host medical facilities outside of the EPZ. Relocation of this population to permanent facilities and/or passing through the reception center before arriving at the host facility are not considered in this analysis..8.5 Special Needs Population The special needs population registered within the EPZ was provided by local OROs. There are 12 homebound special needs people within the EPZ who require transportation assistance to evacuate.

Based on information provided by local OROs, 10 transit dependent people would require a bus and 2 would require an ambulance.

ETE for Homebound Special Needs Persons Table 8-17 summarizes the ETE for homebound special needs people. The table is categorized by type of vehicle required and then broken down by weather condition.

The table takes into consideration the deployment of multiple vehicles to reduce the number of stops per vehicle.It is conservatively assumed that ambulatory households are spaced 3 miles apart and bedridden households are spaced 5 miles apart. Bus speeds approximate 20 mph between households and ambulance speeds approximate 15 mph in good weather (10% slower in rain, 20% slower in snow). Mobilization times of 90 minutes were used (100 minutes for rain, and 110 minutes for snow). Loading times of 5 minutes and 15 minutes per person are assumed for ambulatory people and bedridden people, respectively.

The last HH is assumed to be 5 miles from the EPZ boundary, and the network-wide average speed, capped at 55 mph (50 mph for rain and 45 mph for snow), after the last pickup is used to compute travel time. ETE is computed by summing mobilization time, loading time at first household, travel to subsequent households, loading time at subsequent households, and travel time to EPZ boundary.

All ETE.are rounded to the nearest 5 minutes.LaSalle County Generating Station 8-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 For example, assuming no more than one special needs person per HH implies that 10 ambulatory households need to be serviced.

Given a bus capacity of 30 people, 1 bus is needed to service the population.

While only 1 bus is needed from a capacity perspective, if 2 buses are deployed to service these special needs HH, then each would require 5 stops. The following outlines the ETE calculations:

1. Assume 2 buses are deployed, each with about 5 stops, to service a total of 10 HH.2. ETE is equal to the total time to complete the following activities:
a. Bus arrive at the first pickup location:

90 minutes b. Load HH members at first pickup: 5 minutes c. Travel to subsequent pickup locations:

4 @ 9 minutes = 36 minutes d. Load HH members at subsequent pickup locations:

4 @ 5 minutes = 20 minutes e. Travel to EPZ boundary:

7 minutes (5 miles @ 42.3 mph).ETE: 90 + 5 + 36 + 20 + 7 = 2:40 rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes Table 8-5 indicates that there are sufficient transportation resources available in the EPZ to evacuate the medical facilities and the homebound special needs population simultaneously.

The average ETE for a single wave evacuation of the homebound special needs population is approximately 45 minutes longer than the general population ETE at the 90th percentile for an evacuation of the entire EPZ (Region R03).LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 (Subsequent Wave)Time A Advisory to Evacuate B Bus Dispatched from Depot C Bus Arrives at Facility/Pick-up Route D Bus Departs for Reception Center E Bus Exits Region F Bus Arrives at Reception Center/Host Facility G Bus Available for "Second Wave" Evacuation Service A-* B Driver Mobilization B--C Travel to Facility or to Pick-up Route C-+-D Passengers Board the Bus D-->E Bus Travels Towards Region Boundary E-->F Bus Travels Towards Reception Center Outside the EPZ F-*G Passengers Leave Bus; Driver Takes a Break Figure 8-1. Chronology of Transit Evacuation Operations LaSalle County Generating Station 8-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Figure 8-2. LAS Transit-Dependent Bus Routes LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-1. Transit-Dependent Population Estimates 17,491 2.30 7,605 4.28% 325 1.25 406 50% 203 1.16%LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-2. School, Preschool, and Day Camp Population Demand Estimates~sg~uuaIamin~B~usess 4 Grace Church-Rhema Christian Academy 32 1 5 Ransom Consolidated School 114 3 7 Grand Ridge CC School 337 7 8 Central Intermediate School 474 10 8 Shepherd Middle School 419 9 10 Marseilles Elementary School 673 10 10 Seneca CC School North Campus 292 5 10 Seneca CC School South Campus 188 4 10 Seneca Township High School 503 11 School Total: 3,032 60 4 Holy Trinity Lutheran Preschool 90 2 8 Girl Scout Camp Pokanoka 120 3 10 Glory Land Kids Childcare Center 22 1 10 Seneca Head Start 18 1 Preschool and Day Camp Total: 250 7 8-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-3. School, Preschool, and Day Camp Relocation Facilities Facility Name Relocation Center LaSalle County, IL Grace Church-Rhema Christian Academy Pontiac Township High School Ransom Consolidated School Grand Ridge CC School Central Intermediate School Shepherd Middle School Marseilles Elementary School Illinois Valley Community College Seneca CC School North Campus Seneca CC School South Campus Seneca Township High School Holy Trinity Lutheran Preschool Pontiac Township High School Girl Scout Camp Pokanoka Glory Land Kids Childcare Center Illinois Valley Community College Seneca Head Start LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-4. Medical Facility Transit Demand 4 Heritage Manor Streator I 125 29 96 U 1 -8 Ottawa Friendship House Ottawa 15 15 0 0 1 0 11 Rivershores Center Marseilles 70 16 54 0 1 4 Table 8-5. Summary of Transportation Resources TrnprainWelhi Will County 250 30 23 18 Grundy County 80 8 6 2 LaSalle County 31 3 2 5 Kendall County 81 9 5 2 Ottawa Friendship House 0 3 0 0 Schools, Preschools, and Day Camps (Table 8-2): 67 0 0 0 Medical Facilities (Table 8-4): 3 0 11 0 Transit-Dependent Population (Table 8-10): 7 0 0 0 Homnebound Special Needs (Table 8-17): 2 0 0 1 LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-6. Bus Route Descriptions Busi ~' ~i'J.i ie teII.1ui e RoutdeIi Node Trvre fro Rout Str t.1 Ransom Consolidated School 303,304,305,750 2 Grand Ridge CC School 91, 675, 526, 527, 626, 528 3 Seneca Township High School (Part A) 134, 65, 650, 651, 652 4 Seneca Township High School (Part B) 663, 738, 114, 115, 13, 12, 11, 10, 9, 8 5 Seneca CC School North Campus (Part A) 133, 134, 65, 650, 651, 652 6 Seneca CC School North Campus (Part B) 663, 738, 114, 115, 13, 12, 11, 10, 9, 8 7 Seneca CC School South Campus (Part A) 132, 133, 134, 65, 650, 651, 652 8 Seneca CC School South Campus (Part B) 663, 738, 114, 115, 13, 12, 11, 10, 9, 8 Shepherd Middle School and Girl Scout 580,270,271 Camp Pokanoka 40, 41, 109, 110, 111, 112, 113, 738, 114, 115, 13, 10 Marseilles Elementary School 1,1,1,9 12, 11, 10, 9, 8 11 Grace Church-Rhema Christian Academy 389, 388, 387 12 Central Intermediate School 580, 270, 271 13 Holy Trinity Lutheran Pre-School 345, 346, 607 14 Seneca Head Start (Part A) 134, 65, 650, 651, 652 15 Seneca Head Start (Part B) 663, 738, 114, 115, 13, 12, 11, 10, 9, 8 16 Glory Land Kids Childcare Center (Part A) 132, 133, 134, 65, 650, 651, 652 17 Glory Land Kids Childcare Center (Part B) 663, 738, 114, 115, 13, 12, 11, 10, 9, 8 433, 41, 109, 110, 111, 112, 113, 738, 114, 115, 18 Rivershores Center 1,1,1,1,9 13, 12, 11, 10, 9, 8 19 Ottawa Friendship House 527, 626, 528 20 Heritage Manor 345, 346, 607 21 Transit Dependent

-Sub-areas 1, 2, and 5 84, 776, 287, 292, 773, 303, 304, 305, 750 778, 90, 592, 591, 589, 91, 676, 337, 594, 336, 22 Transit Dependent

-Sub-area 4 390, 389, 388, 387, 386, 385, 384, 379, 373, 376, 375, 360, 353, 365, 401, 407 23 Transit Dependent

-Sub-areas 13 and 17 315, 316, 627, 628, 311 24 Transit Dependent

-Sub-areas 10 and 6 134, 691, 135, 136, 137, 138, 139, 140, 141, 142, 143, 144, 145, 146, 147 25 Transit Dependent

-Sub-areas 3, 7, and 8 90,592,591,589,91,675,526,527,626,528, 583, 270, 271 59, 38, 39, 58, 40, 41, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 57, 51, 52, 53, 54, 56, 55, 454, 453, 455, 456 27 Transit Dependent

-Sub-area 11 433, 41, 109, 110, 111, 112, 113, 738, 114, 115, 13, 12, 11, 10, 9, 8 LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-18 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-7. School, Preschool, and Day Camp Evacuation Time Estimates

-Good Weather brace Lnurcn-Knema Academy I 15 1 9.9 1 46.5 13 LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-19 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-8. School, Preschool, and Day Camp Evacuation Time Estimates

-Rain brace Lnurcn-Knema Lnrlstlan Acaaemy LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-20 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-9. School, Preschool, and Day Camp Evacuation Time Estimates

-Snow urace Lnurcn-Knema nrnnstan Acaaemy iiu zt u./ 44.t I Central Intermediate School 110 25 0.4 26.5 1 Grand Ridge CC School 110 25 5.6 43.6 8 Marseilles Elementary School 110 25 4.1 31.2 8 Ransom Consolidated School 110 25 3.7 45.0 5 Seneca CC School North Campus 110 25 9.6 36.7 16 Seneca CC School South Campus 110 25 0.4 38.3 1 Seneca Township High School 110 25 9.4 36.8 15 Shepherd Middle School 110 25 0.4 44.9 1 Maximum for EPZ: Average for EPZ: Girl Scout Camp Pokanoka 110 25 0.7 50.0 1 Glory Land Kids Childcare Center 110 25 9.9 36.5 16 Holy Trinity Lutheran Preschool 110 25 0.2 29.6 1 Seneca Head Start 110 25 9.3 36.8 15 Maximum for EPZ: Average for EPZ: Maximum: 25.8 34 29.0 39 25.8 34 Maximum: Average: LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-21 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-10. Summary of Transit-Dependent Bus Routes No of Legt Sub-areas 1, 2, and 5 1 Starting at N 21st Rd head south on E 27th Rd. Continue south to the EPZ boundary at N 12th Road.Continue to Pontiac Township High School.9.0 Starting at E 22nd Rd head West on N 17th Rd. Make a Left onto State Road 23 at end. Take State Road 23 to N 15th Rd and make a left. Take N 15th to end and make a right onto E 18th Rd. Make Sub-area 4 1 first left onto N 1475th Rd then a right onto E 19th Rd. Make first Right onto N 14th Rd and 13.0 continue to N Otter Creek St. Make a left onto N Otter Creek St. Stay on N otter Creek St to CR-14 and make a right onto CR-14. Proceed to Pontiac Township High School.Sub-areas 13 Starting on Route 9 head south on Verona Rd. Make a Right onto Gardner Road. Follow Gardner Rd 1 to Johnny Run Rd. Make a Left onto Johnny Run Rd and follow to EPZ boundary.

Continue to 12.0 Pontiac Township High School.Sub-areas 10 and 6 1 Starting at US 6head south on State Road 170. Make a left onto E Union St. Take E Union to EPZ 6.1 Boundary.

Continue to Joliet Junior College.Sub-areas 3, 7, Starting at E 22nd St head West on N 21st Rd. Make a right onto State Road 23. Follow State Rd 23 1 to the EPZ Boundary at E McKinley Rd. Make a left onto E McKinley Rd and continue to Illinois Valley 11.0 Community College.Starting at Morris Rd on US 6 head west towards Pearl St, make a left onto Pearl St. Take Pearl St to end and make a quick right left over the train tracks. Make a right onto Tolin St then left onto Aurora St. Continue around bend to the left and take Aurora St to end. Make left onto Liberty St Sub-area 10 1 then right onto Illinois St. Follow around bend to the left and then make right onto Washington St. 10.3 Make left onto Sherman St. Take to end and make left onto Morris Rd. Make right onto LaSalle St.Make left onto 2nd Ave. Make right onto 7th Ave. Make left onto Colorado St. Make right onto US 6. Continue on US 6 to EPZ Boundary then to Illinois Valley Community College.Starting at Mill St on CR-15 head North towards US 6. Make a left onto US 6 and an immediate right onto Rutland St then the first left onto Glen Ave. Follow Glen Ave to the end and make a left onto Sub-area 11 Young St. Take Young St to the end and make a left onto CR 15. Continue North towards US 6 and 10.4 make a left then immediate right onto Rutland St. Take Rutland Rd to 1-80 Westbound, make a right onto the 1-80 Westbound ramp and follow 1-80 West to the EPZ Boundary.

Then continue to Illinois Valley Community College.Total: 7 LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-22 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-11. Transit-Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates

-Good Weather Sub-areas 1, 2, and 5 1 90 9.0 I 55.0 I 10 30 17.8 19 5 I 10 l 39 30 Sub-area 4 1 90 13.0 55.0 14 30 Sub-areas 13 and 17 1 90 12.0 55.0 13 30 Sub-areas 10 and 6 1 90 6.1 55.0 7 30 Sub-areas 3, 7, and 8 1 90 11.0 55.0 12 30 Sub-area 10 1 90 10.3 55.0 11 30 Sub-area 11 1 90 10.4 55.0 11 30 Maximum ETE: Average ETE: 27.5 30 5 10 58 30 18.8 21 5 10 47 30 24.7 27 5 10 40 30 15.5 17 5 10 41 30 18.5 20 5 10 142 30 20.8 23 5 10 1 46 30 ra LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-23 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-12. Transit-Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates

-Rain Sub-areas 1, 2, and 5 1 1 100 9.0 1 50.0 I 11 40 17.8 21 5 10 I 42 40 Sub-area 4 1 100 13.0 50.0 16 40 Sub-areas 13 and 17 1 100 12.0 50.0 14 40 Sub-areas 10 and 6 1 100 6.1 50.0 7 40 Sub-areas 3, 7, and 8 1 100 11.0 50.0 13 40 Sub-area 10 1 100 10.3 50.0 12 40 Sub-area 11 1 100 10.4 50.0 12 40 Maximum ETE: Average ETE: 27.5 33 5 10 63 40 18.8 23 5 10 50 40 24.7 30 5 10 44 40 15.5 19 5 10 44 40 18.5 22 5 10 46 40 20.8 25 5 10 49 40 Maximum ETE: Average ETE: LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-24 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 0 Table 8-13. Transit Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates

-Snow Sub-areas 1, 2, and 5 1 1 110 9.0 1 45.0 1 12 50 17.8 24 5 10 1 46 1 50 Sub-area 4 1 110 13.0 45.0 17 50 Sub-areas 13 and 17 1 110 12.0 45.0 16 50 Sub-areas 10 and 6 1 110 6.1 45.0 8 50 Sub-areas 3, 7, and 8 1 110 11.0 45.0 15 50 Sub-area 10 1 110 10.3 45.0 14 50 Sub-area 11 1 110 10.4 45.0 14 50 Maximum ETE: Average ETE: 27.5 37 5 10 69 50 18.8 25 5 10 54 50 24.7 33 5 10 48 50 15.5 21 5 10 48 50 18.5 25 5 10 50 50 20.8 28 5 10 53 50 Maximum ETE: Average ETE: LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-25 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-14. Medical Facility Evacuation Time Estimates

-Good Weather NTravel u ..Ambulatory 90 1 91 0.2 2:00 r-lui IVldllUI Wheelchair bound 90 5 96 1 0.2 1 1 2:50 Ottawa Friendship House Ambulatory 90 1 15 15 1.5 2 1:50 Rivershores Center Ambulatory 90 1 16 16 8.6 10 2:00 Wheelchair bound 90 5 54 75 8.6 9 2:55 Maximum ETE: 2:55 Average ETE: 2:20 Table 8-15. Medical Facility Evacuation Time Estimates

-Rain o1 2n29 0.2 1 2:10 Heritage Manor Ambulatory 100 1 29 29 0.2_1_2:1 Wheelchair bound 100 5 96 75 0.2 1 3:00 Ottawa Friendship House Ambulatory 100 1 15 15 1.5 3 2:00 Rivershores Center Ambulatory 100 1 16 16 8.6 10 2:10 Wheelchair bound 100 5 54 75 8.6 10 3:05 Maximum ETE: 3:05 Average ETE: 2:30 LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-26 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-16. Medical Facility Evacuation Time Estimates

-Snow Moiizto (mi pe Lodn Dit To 0P Boundar -.Ambulatory 110 1 29 29 0.2 1 2:20 Heritage Manor+ t + I I *Wheelchair bound 110 5 96 75 0.2 1 3:10 Ottawa Friendship House Ambulatory 11 1 15 15 1.5 3 2:10 Rivershores Center Ambulatory 110 1 16 16 8.6 12 2:20 Wheelchair bound 110 5 54 75 8.6 12 3:20 Maximum ETE: 3:20 Average ETE: 2:40 Table 8-17. Homebound Special Needs Population Evacuation Time Estimates Toa0Tae 00ilza Lodn Loain Tim 0to*-Pepl tio Tim at Trvlo Tiea Reurn Veice Wete Tim 1" Sto Susqun Susqun Boundar.0

.Veil Typ Veil deloe 0to00 Codtin (min (mn Stp 0mn Stop (mn0mn)0r Buses 10 2 5 Good Rain Snow 90 100 110 5 36 40 44 20 7 8 8 2:40 2:55 3:10 Good 90 10 7 2:20 Ambulances 2 1 2 Rain 100 15 11 15 8 2:30 Snow 110 13 8 2:45 Maximum ETE: 3:10 Average ETE: 2:45 LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-27 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 9 TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT STRATEGY This section discusses the suggested traffic control and management strategy that is designed to expedite the movement of evacuating traffic. The resources required to implement this strategy include: " Personnel with the capabilities of performing the planned control functions of traffic guides (preferably, not necessarily, law enforcement officers)." Traffic Control Devices to assist these personnel in the performance of their tasks. These devices should comply with the guidance of the Manual of Uniform Traffic Control Devices (MUTCD) published by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) of the U.S.D.O.T.

All state and most county transportation agencies have access to the MUTCD, which is available on-line: http://mutcd.fhwa.dot.gov which provides access to the official PDF version.* A plan that defines all locations, provides necessary details and is documented in a format that is readily understood by those assigned to perform traffic control.The functions to be performed in the field are: 1. Facilitate evacuating traffic movements that safely expedite travel out of the EPZ.2. Discourage traffic movements that move evacuating vehicles in a direction which takes them significantly closer to the power plant, or which interferes with the efficient flow of other evacuees.We employ the terms "facilitate" and "discourage" rather than "enforce" and "prohibit" to indicate the need for flexibility in performing the traffic control function.

There are always legitimate reasons for a driver to prefer a direction other than that indicated.

For example: " A driver may be traveling home from work or from another location, to join other family members prior to evacuating." An evacuating driver may be travelling to pick up a relative, or other evacuees.* The driver may be an emergency worker en route to perform an important activity.The implementation of a plan must also be flexible enough for the application of sound judgment by the traffic guide.The traffic management plan is the outcome of the following process: 1. The existing TCPs and ACPs identified by the offsite agencies in their emergency plans serve as the basis of the traffic management plan, as per NUREG/CR-7002.

2. Computer analysis of the evacuation traffic flow environment (see Figures 7-3 through 7-7).This analysis identifies the best routing and those critical intersections that experience pronounced congestion.

Any critical intersections that would benefit from traffic or access control which are not already identified in the existing offsite plans are suggested as additional TCPs and ACPs.LaSalle County Generating Station 9-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0

3. The existing TCPs and ACPs, and how they were applied in this study, are discussed in Appendix G.4. Prioritization of TCPs and ACPs.Application of traffic and access control at some TCPs and ACPs will have a more pronounced influence on expediting traffic movements than at other TCPs and ACPs. For example, TCPs controlling traffic originating from areas in close proximity to the power plant could have a more beneficial effect on minimizing potential exposure to radioactivity than those TCPs located far from the power plant. These priorities should be assigned by state/local emergency management representatives and by law enforcement personnel.

The ETE simulations discussed in Section 7.3 indicate minimal congestion within the EPZ. The 100th percentile ETE are dictated by the time to mobilize evacuees rather than the time for traffic congestion to clear. As such, no additional TCPs or ACPs are identified as a result of this study. The existing traffic management plans are adequate.The use of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) technologies can reduce manpower and equipment needs, while still facilitating the evacuation process. Dynamic Message Signs (DMS)can be placed within the EPZ to provide information to travelers regarding traffic conditions, route selection, and reception center information.

DMS can also be placed outside of the EPZ to warn motorists to avoid using routes that may conflict with the flow of evacuees away from the power plant. Highway Advisory Radio (HAR) can be used to broadcast information to evacuees en route through their vehicle stereo systems. Automated Traveler Information Systems (ATIS) can also be used to provide evacuees with information.

Internet websites can provide traffic and evacuation route information before the evacuee begins their trip, while on board navigation systems (GPS units), cell phones, and pagers can be used to provide information en route. These are only several examples of how ITS technologies can benefit the evacuation process. Consideration should be given that ITS technologies be used to facilitate the evacuation process, and any additional signage placed should consider evacuation needs.The ETE analysis treated all controlled intersections that are existing ACP or TCP locations in the offsite agency plans as being controlled by actuated signals. Appendix K, Table K-2 identifies those intersections that were modeled as TCPs.Chapters 2N and 5G, and Part 6 of the 2009 MUTCD are particularly relevant and should be reviewed during emergency response training.The ETE calculations reflect the assumption that all "external-external" trips are interdicted and diverted after 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> have elapsed from the ATE.All transit vehicles and other responders entering the EPZ to support the evacuation are assumed to be unhindered by personnel manning ACPs and TCPs.Study Assumptions 5 and 6 in Section 2.3 discuss ACP and TCP staffing schedules and operations.

LaSalle County Generating Station 9-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 10 EVACUATION ROUTES Evacuation routes are comprised of two distinct components: " Routing from a Sub-area being evacuated to the boundary of the Evacuation Region and thence out of the EPZ.* Routing of transit-dependent evacuees from the EPZ boundary to reception communities or relocation centers.Evacuees will select routes within the EPZ in such a way as to minimize their exposure to risk.This expectation is met by the DYNEV II model routing traffic away from the location of the plant, to the extent practicable.

The DTRAD model satisfies this behavior by routing traffic so as to balance traffic demand relative to the available highway capacity to the extent possible.See Appendices B through D for further discussion.

The routing of transit-dependent evacuees from the EPZ boundary to reception communities or relocation centers is designed to minimize the amount of travel outside the EPZ, from the points where these routes cross the EPZ boundary.The Radiological Emergency Response Plans (RERP) for the State of Illinois and for the counties in the EPZ indicate evacuees can receive congregate care at reception centers.Figure 10-1 presents an overview of the general population reception communities (listed in the public information) and relocation centers (listed in the county RERP) servicing the EPZ. The major evacuation routes for the EPZ are presented in Figure 10-2.It is assumed that all school evacuees will be taken to the appropriate relocation center and subsequently picked up by parents or guardians.

Transit-dependent evacuees are transported to the nearest reception community for each county.LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 10-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure 10-1. General Population Reception Communities and Relocation Centers LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 10-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 I Figure 10-2. Major Evacuation Routes LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 10-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 11 SURVEILLANCE OF EVACUATION OPERATIONS There is a need for surveillance of traffic operations during the evacuation.

There is also a need to clear any blockage of roadways arising from accidents or vehicle disablement.

Surveillance can take several forms.1. Traffic control personnel, located at Traffic Control and Access Control points, provide fixed-point surveillance.

2. Ground patrols may be undertaken along well-defined paths to ensure coverage of those highways that serve as major evacuation routes.3. Aerial surveillance of evacuation operations may also be conducted using helicopter or fixed-wing aircraft, if available.
4. Cellular phone calls (if cellular coverage exists) from motorists may also provide direct field reports of road blockages.

These concurrent surveillance procedures are designed to provide coverage of the entire EPZ as well as the area around its periphery.

It is the responsibility of the offsite agencies to support an emergency response system that can receive messages from the field and be in a position to respond to any reported problems in a timely manner. This coverage should quickly identify and expedite the response to any blockage caused by a disabled vehicle.Tow Vehicles In a low-speed traffic environment, any vehicle disablement is likely to arise due to a low-speed collision, mechanical failure or the exhaustion of its fuel supply. In any case, the disabled vehicle can be pushed onto the shoulder, thereby restoring traffic flow. Past experience in other emergencies indicates that evacuees who are leaving an area often perform activities such as pushing a disabled vehicle to the side of the road without prompting.

While the need for tow vehicles is expected to be low under the circumstances described above, it is still prudent to be prepared for such a need. Consideration should be given that tow trucks with a supply of gasoline be deployed at strategic locations within, or just outside, the EPZ. These locations should be selected so that: " They permit access to key, heavily loaded, evacuation routes." Responding tow trucks would most likely travel counter-flow relative to evacuating traffic.Consideration should also be given that the state and local emergency management agencies encourage gas stations to remain open during the evacuation.

LaSalle County Generating Station 11-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 12 CONFIRMATION TIME It is necessary to confirm that the evacuation process is effective in the sense that the public is complying with the Advisory to Evacuate.

The offsite agency radiological emergency plans do not discuss a procedure for confirming evacuation.

Should procedures not already exist, the following alternative or complementary approach is suggested.

The suggested procedure employs a stratified random sample and a telephone survey. The size of the sample is dependent on the expected number of households that do not comply with the Advisory to Evacuate.

It is reasonable to assume for the purpose of estimating sample size that at least 80 percent of the population within the EPZ will comply with the Advisory to Evacuate.On this basis, an analysis could be undertaken (see Table 12-1) to yield an estimated sample size of approximately 300.The confirmation process should start at about 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> after the Advisory to Evacuate, which is when approximately 95 percent of evacuees have completed their mobilization activities (see Figure 5-4). At this time, virtually all evacuees will have departed on their respective trips and the local telephone system will be largely free of traffic.As indicated in Table 12-1, approximately 7Y person hours are needed to complete the telephone survey. If six people are assigned to this task, each dialing a different set of telephone exchanges (e.g., each person can be assigned a different set of Sub-areas), then the confirmation process will extend over a timeframe of about 75 minutes. Thus, the confirmation should be completed before the evacuated area is cleared. Of course, fewer people would be needed for this survey if the Evacuation Region were only a portion of the EPZ. Use of modern automated computer controlled dialing equipment or other technologies (e.g., reverse 911 or equivalent if available) can significantly reduce the manpower requirements and the time required to undertake this type of confirmation survey.If this method is indeed used by the offsite agencies, consideration should be given to maintain a list of telephone numbers within the EPZ in the EOC at all times. Such a list could be purchased from vendors and could be periodically updated. As indicated above, the confirmation process should not begin until 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> after the Advisory to Evacuate, to ensure that households have had enough time to mobilize.

This 2-hour timeframe will enable telephone operators to arrive at their workplace, obtain a call list and prepare to make the necessary phone calls.Should the number of telephone responses (i.e., people still at home) exceed 20 percent, then the telephone survey should be repeated after an hour's interval until the confirmation process is completed.

Other techniques could also be considered.

After traffic volumes decline, the personnel manning TCPs can be redeployed to travel through residential areas to observe and to confirm evacuation activities.

LaSalle County Generating Station 12-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Table 12-1. Estimated Number of Telephone Calls Required for Confirmation of Evacuation Problem Definition Estimate number of phone calls, n, needed to ascertain the proportion, F of households that have not evacuated.

Reference:

Burstein, H., Attribute Sampling.

McGraw Hill, 1971 Given: " No. of households plus other facilities, N, within the EPZ (est.) = 7,700* Est. proportion, F, of households that will not evacuate = 0.20" Allowable error margin, e: 0.05* Confidence level, a: 0.95 (implies A = 1.96)Applying Table 10 of cited reference, p=F+e=0.25; q=1-p=0.75 A 2 pq + e 3 n --308 e2 Finite population correction:

nN nF -- =296 n+N-1 Thus, some 300 telephone calls will confirm that approximately 20 percent of the population has not evacuated.

If only 10 percent of the population does not comply with the Advisory to Evacuate, then the required sample size, nF = 210.Est. Person Hours to complete 300 telephone calls Assume: " Time to dial using touch tone (random selection of listed numbers):

30 seconds" Time for 6 rings (no answer): 36 seconds* Time for 4 rings plus short conversation:

60 sec.* Interval between calls: 20 sec.Person Hours: 300[30 + 0.8(36) + 0.2(60) + 20]=7.6 3600 LaSalle County Generating Station 12-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 13 REFERENCES Agarwal, M. et. al. Proceedings of the 2005 Mid-Continent Transportation Research Symposium, "Impacts of Weather on Urban Freeway Traffic Flow Characteristics and Facility Capacity," August 2005. (Agarwal, 2005).Exelon. EP-AA-1005, Revision 36, "Exelon Nuclear Radiological Emergency Plan Annex for LaSalle Station," June 2013. (Exelon, 2013).Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS), Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Washington, D.C., 2013. (HPMS, 2013).Institute for Environmental Studies (IES), University of Toronto. "The Mississauga Evacuation Final Report," June 1981. (IES, 1981).Lieberman, E. Publication Transportation Research Record 772, "Determining Lateral Deployment of Traffic on an Approach to an Intersection," 1980. (Lieberman, 1980).Lieberman, E., Xin, W. "Macroscopic Traffic Modeling For Large-Scale Evacuation Planning", presented at the TRB 2012 Annual Meeting, January 2012. (Lieberman, 2012).McShane, W. & Lieberman, E. "Service Rates of Mixed Traffic on the far Left Lane of an Approach," Publication Transportation Research Record 772, 1980. (McShane, 1980).Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). NUREG/CR-1745, "Analysis of Techniques for Estimating Evacuation Times for Emergency Planning Zones," November, 1980. (NRC, 1980a).Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). NUREG/CR-4873, PNL-6171, "Benchmark Study of the I-DYNEV Evacuation Time Estimate Computer Code," 1988. (NRC, 1988a).Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). NUREG/CR-4874, PNL-6172, "The Sensitivity of Evacuation Time Estimates to Changes in Input Parameters for the I-DYNEV Computer Code," 1988. (NRC, 1988b).Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). NUREG-0654/FEMA-REP-1, Rev. 1, "Criteria for Preparation and Evaluation of Radiological Emergency Response Plans and Preparedness in Support of Nuclear Power Plants," November 1980. (NRC, 1980b).Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). NUREG/CR-6863, SAND2004-5900, "Development of Evacuation Time Estimate Studies for Nuclear Power Plants," January 2005. (NRC, 2005).Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). NUREG/CR-7002, SAND 2010-0061P, "Criteria for Development of Evacuation Time Estimate Studies," November 2011. (NRC, 2011a).Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Title 10, Code of Federal Regulations, Appendix E to Part 50 -Emergency Planning and Preparedness for Production and Utilization Facilities, 2011.(NRC, 2011b).Transportation Research Board (TRB). "Highway Capacity Manual." National Research Council, Washington, DC, 2010. (TRB, 2010).LaSalle County Generating Station 13-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Zhang, L. and Levinson, D. "Some Properties of Flows at Freeway Bottlenecks," Transportation Research Record 1883, 2004. (Zhang, 2004).LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 13-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 APPENDIX A Glossary of Traffic Engineering Terms A. GLOSSARY OF TRAFFIC ENGINEERING TERMS Table A-i. Glossary of Traffic Engineering Terms Term Definiio Analysis Network Link Measures of Effectiveness Node Origin Prevailing Roadway and Traffic Conditions A graphical representation of the geometric topology of a physical roadway system, which is comprised of directional links and nodes.A network link represents a specific, one-directional section of roadway. A link has both physical (length, number of lanes, topology, etc.) and operational (turn movement percentages, service rate, free-flow speed) characteristics.

Statistics describing traffic operations on a roadway network.A network node generally represents an intersection of network links. A node has control characteristics, i.e., the allocation of service time to each approach link.A location attached to a network link, within the EPZ or Shadow Region, where trips are generated at a specified rate in vehicles per hour (vph). These trips enter the roadway system to travel to their respective destinations.

Relates to the physical features of the roadway, the nature (e.g., composition) of traffic on the roadway and the ambient conditions (weather, visibility, pavement conditions, etc.).Maximum rate at which vehicles, executing a specific turn maneuver, can be discharged from a section of roadway at the prevailing conditions, expressed in vehicles per second (vps) or vehicles per hour (vph).Maximum number of vehicles which can pass over a section of roadway in one direction during a specified time period with operating conditions at a specified Level of Service (The Service Volume at the upper bound of Level of Service, E, equals Capacity).

Service Volume is usually expressed as vehicles per hour (vph).The total elapsed time to display all signal indications, in sequence.The cycle length is expressed in seconds.A single combination of signal indications.

The interval duration is expressed in seconds. A signal phase is comprised of a sequence of signal intervals, usually green, yellow, red.Service Rate Service Volume Signal Cycle Length Signal Interval LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate A-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Term Definiio Signal Phase Traffic (Trip) Assignment Traffic Density Traffic (Trip) Distribution Traffic Simulation Traffic Volume Travel Mode Trip Table or Origin-Destination Matrix Turning Capacity A set of signal indications (and intervals) which services a particular combination of traffic movements on selected approaches to the intersection.

The phase duration is expressed in seconds.A process of assigning traffic to paths of travel in such a way as to satisfy all trip objectives (i.e., the desire of each vehicle to travel from a specified origin in the network to a specified destination) and to optimize some stated objective or combination of objectives.

In general, the objective is stated in terms of minimizing a generalized "cost". For example, "cost" may be expressed in terms of travel time.The number of vehicles that occupy one lane of a roadway section of specified length at a point in time, expressed as vehicles per mile (vpm).A process for determining the destinations of all traffic generated at the origins. The result often takes the form of a Trip Table, which is a matrix of origin-destination traffic volumes.A computer model designed to replicate the real-world operation of vehicles on a roadway network, so as to provide statistics describing traffic performance.

These statistics are called Measures of Effectiveness.

The number of vehicles that pass over a section of roadway in one direction, expressed in vehicles per hour (vph). Where applicable, traffic volume may be stratified by turn movement.Distinguishes between private auto, bus, rail, pedestrian and air travel modes.A rectangular matrix or table, whose entries contain the number of trips generated at each specified origin, during a specified time period, that are attracted to (and travel toward) each of its specified destinations.

These values are expressed in vehicles per hour (vph) or in vehicles.The capacity associated with that component of the traffic stream which executes a specified turn maneuver from an approach at an intersection.

LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate A-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 APPENDIX B DTRAD: Dynamic Traffic Assignment and Distribution Model B. DYNAMIC TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT AND DISTRIBUTION MODEL This section describes the integrated dynamic trip assignment and distribution model named DTRAD (Dynamic Traffic Assignment and Distribution) that is expressly designed for use in analyzing evacuation scenarios.

DTRAD employs logit-based path-choice principles and is one of the models of the DYNEV II System. The DTRAD module implements path-based Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTA) so that time dependent Origin-Destination (OD) trips are "assigned" to routes over the network based on prevailing traffic conditions.

To apply the DYNEV II System, the analyst must specify the highway network, link capacity information, the time-varying volume of traffic generated at all origin centroids and, optionally, a set of accessible candidate destination nodes on the periphery of the EPZ for selected origins.DTRAD calculates the optimal dynamic trip distribution (i.e., trip destinations) and the optimal dynamic trip assignment (i.e., trip routing) of the traffic generated at each origin node traveling to its set of candidate destination nodes, so as to minimize evacuee travel "cost." Overview of Integrated Distribution and Assignment Model The underlying premise is that the selection of destinations and routes is intrinsically coupled in an evacuation scenario.

That is, people in vehicles seek to travel out of an area of potential risk as rapidly as possible by selecting the "best" routes. The model is designed to identify these"best" routes in a manner that realistically distributes vehicles from origins to destinations and routes them over the highway network, in a consistent and optimal manner, reflecting evacuee behavior.For each origin, a set of "candidate destination nodes" is selected by the software logic and by the analyst to reflect the desire by evacuees to travel away from the power plant and to access major highways.

The specific destination nodes within this set that are selected by travelers and the selection of the connecting paths of travel, are both determined by DTRAD. This determination is made by a logit-based path choice model in DTRAD, so as to minimize the trip"cost", as discussed later.The traffic loading on the network and the consequent operational traffic environment of the network (density, speed, throughput on each link) vary over time as the evacuation takes place.The DTRAD model, which is interfaced with the DYNEV simulation model, executes a succession of "sessions" wherein it computes the optimal routing and selection of destination nodes for the conditions that exist at that time.Interfacing the DYNEV Simulation Model with DTRAD The DYNEV II system reflects NRC guidance that evacuees will seek to travel in a general direction away from the location of the hazardous event. An algorithm was developed to support the DTRAD model in dynamically varying the Trip Table (O-D matrix) over time from one DTRAD session to the next. Another algorithm executes a "mapping" from the specified"geometric" network (link-node analysis network) that represents the physical highway system, to a "path" network that represents the vehicle [turn] movements.

DTRAD computations are performed on the "path" network: DYNEV simulation model, on the "geometric" network.LaSalle County Generating Station B-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 DTRAD Description DTRAD is the DTA module for the DYNEV II System.When the road network under study is large, multiple routing options are usually available between trip origins and destinations.

The problem of loading traffic demands and propagating them over the network links is called Network Loading and is addressed by DYNEV II using macroscopic traffic simulation modeling.

Traffic assignment deals with computing the distribution of the traffic over the road network for given O-D demands and is a model of the route choice of the drivers. Travel demand changes significantly over time, and the road network may have time dependent characteristics, e.g., time-varying signal timing or reduced road capacity because of lane closure, or traffic congestion.

To consider these time dependencies, DTA procedures are required.The DTRAD DTA module represents the dynamic route choice behavior of drivers, using the specification of dynamic origin-destination matrices as flow input. Drivers choose their routes through the network based on the travel cost they experience (as determined by the simulation model). This allows traffic to be distributed over the network according to the time-dependent conditions.

The modeling principles of DTRAD include: " It is assumed that drivers not only select the best route (i.e., lowest cost path) but some also select less attractive routes. The algorithm implemented by DTRAD archives several"efficient" routes for each O-D pair from which the drivers choose.* The choice of one route out of a set of possible routes is an outcome of "discrete choice modeling".

Given a set of routes and their generalized costs, the percentages of drivers that choose each route is computed.

The most prevalent model for discrete choice modeling is the logit model. DTRAD uses a variant of Path-Size-Logit model (PSL). PSL overcomes the drawback of the traditional multinomial logit model by incorporating an additional deterministic path size correction term to address path overlapping in the random utility expression.

  • DTRAD executes the traffic assignment algorithm on an abstract network representation called "the path network" which is built from the actual physical link-node analysis network. This execution continues until a stable situation is reached: the volumes and travel times on the edges of the path network do not change significantly from one iteration to the next. The criteria for this convergence are defined by the user.* Travel "cost" plays a crucial role in route choice. In DTRAD, path cost is a linear summation of the generalized cost of each link that comprises the path. The generalized cost for a link, a, is expressed as c, = at, + 81 3 + ys,, wherecis the generalized cost for link a, and a,,8, andyare cost coefficients for link travel time, distance, and supplemental cost, respectively.

Distance and supplemental costs are defined as invariant properties of the network model, while travel time is a dynamic property dictated by prevailing traffic conditions.

The DYNEV simulation model LaSalle County Generating Station B-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 computes travel times on all edges in the network and DTRAD uses that information to constantly update the costs of paths. The route choice decision model in the next simulation iteration uses these updated values to adjust the route choice behavior.

This way, traffic demands are dynamically re-assigned based on time dependent conditions.

The interaction between the DTRAD traffic assignment and DYNEV II simulation models is depicted in Figure B-1. Each round of interaction is called a Traffic Assignment Session (TA session).

A TA session is composed of multiple iterations, marked as loop B in the figure.The supplemental cost is based on the "survival distribution" (a variation of the exponential distribution).

The Inverse Survival Function is a "cost" term in DTRAD to represent the potential risk of travel toward the plant: Sa =- 13 In (p), 0:< p5; 13 >0 d, pdo dn= Distance of node, n, from the plant d 0=Distance from the plant where there is zero risk 13 = Scaling factor The value of do = 15 miles, the outer distance of the Shadow Region. Note that the supplemental cost, sa, of link, a, is (high, low), if its downstream node, n, is (near, far from) the power plant.LaSalle County Generating Station B-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Network Equilibrium In 1952, John Wardrop wrote: Under equilibrium conditions traffic arranges itself in congested networks in such a way that no individual trip-maker can reduce his path costs by switching routes.The above statement describes the "User Equilibrium" definition, also called the "Selfish Driver Equilibrium".

It is a hypothesis that represents a [hopeful]

condition that evolves over time as drivers search out alternative routes to identify those routes that minimize their respective"costs". It has been found that this "equilibrium" objective to minimize costs is largely realized by most drivers who routinely take the same trip over the same network at the same time (i.e., commuters).

Effectively, such drivers "learn" which routes are best for them over time. Thus, the traffic environment "settles down" to a near-equilibrium state.Clearly, since an emergency evacuation is a sudden, unique event, it does not constitute a long-term learning experience which can achieve an equilibrium state. Consequently, DTRAD was not designed as an equilibrium solution, but to represent drivers in a new and unfamiliar situation, who respond in a flexible manner to real-time information (either broadcast or observed) in such a way as to minimize their respective costs of travel.LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate B-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 0 Start of next DTRAD Session Set To = Clock time.Archive System State at TO I Define latest Link Turn Percentages B Execute Simulation Model from time, To toT 1 (burn time)Provide DTRAD with link MOE at time, T 1 Execute DTRAD iteration; Get new Turn Percentages I Retrieve System State at To Apply new Link Turn Percents DTRAD iteration converges?

I No Yes Next iteration Simulate from To to T 2 (DTA session duration)Set Clock to T2 Figure B-1. Flow Diagram of Simulation-DTRAD Interface LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate B-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 APPENDIX C DYNEV Traffic Simulation Model C. DYNEV TRAFFIC SIMULATION MODEL The DYNEV traffic simulation model is a macroscopic model that describes the operations of traffic flow in terms of aggregate variables:

vehicles, flow rate, mean speed, volume, density, queue length, on each link, for each turn movement, during each Time Interval (simulation time step). The model generates trips from "sources" and from Entry Links and introduces them onto the analysis network at rates specified by the analyst based on the mobilization time distributions.

The model simulates the movements of all vehicles on all network links over time until the network is empty. At intervals, the model outputs Measures of Effectiveness (MOE)such as those listed in Table C-1.Model Features Include: " Explicit consideration is taken of the variation in density over the time step; an iterative procedure is employed to calculate an average density over the simulation time step for the purpose of computing a mean speed for moving vehicles." Multiple turn movements can be serviced on one link; a separate algorithm is used to estimate the number of (fractional) lanes assigned to the vehicles performing each turn movement, based, in part, on the turn percentages provided by the DTRAD model.* At any point in time, traffic flow on a link is subdivided into two classifications:

queued and moving vehicles.

The number of vehicles in each classification is computed.

Vehicle spillback, stratified by turn movement for each network link, is explicitly considered and quantified.

The propagation of stopping waves from link to link is computed within each time step of the simulation.

There is no "vertical stacking" of queues on a link." Any link can accommodate "source flow" from zones via side streets and parking facilities that are not explicitly represented.

This flow represents the evacuating trips that are generated at the source.* The relation between the number of vehicles occupying the link and its storage capacity is monitored every time step for every link and for every turn movement.

If the available storage capacity on a link is exceeded by the demand for service, then the simulator applies a "metering" rate to the entering traffic from both the upstream feeders and source node to ensure that the available storage capacity is not exceeded.* A "path network" that represents the specified traffic movements from each network link is constructed by the model; this path network is utilized by the DTRAD model." A two-way interface with DTRAD: (1) provides link travel times; (2) receives data that translates into link turn percentages.

  • Provides MOE to animation software, EVAN* Calculates ETE statistics LaSalle County Generating Station C-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 All traffic simulation models are data-intensive.

Table C-2 outlines the necessary input data elements.To provide an efficient framework for defining these specifications, the physical highway environment is represented as a network. The unidirectional links of the network represent roadway sections:

rural, multi-lane, urban streets or freeways.

The nodes of the network generally represent intersections or points along a section where a geometric property changes (e.g. a lane drop, change in grade or free flow speed).Figure C-i is an example of a small network representation.

The freeway is defined by the sequence of links, (20,21), (21,22), and (22,23). Links (8001, 19) and (3, 8011) are Entry and Exit links, respectively.

An arterial extends from node 3 to node 19 and is partially subsumed within a grid network. Note that links (21,22) and (17,19) are grade-separated.

Table C-1. Selected Measures of Effectiveness Output by DYNEV II Mesr Unt AplesT Vehicles Discharged Vehicles Link, Network, Exit Link Speed Miles/Hours (mph) Link, Network Density Vehicles/Mile/Lane Link Level of Service LOS Link Content Vehicles Network Travel Time Vehicle-hours Network Evacuated Vehicles Vehicles Network, Exit Link Trip Travel Time Vehicle-minutes/trip Network Capacity Utilization Percent Exit Link Attraction Percent of total evacuating vehicles Exit Link Max Queue Vehicles Node, Approach Time of Max Queue Hours:minutes Node, Approach Route Statistics Length (mi); Mean Speed (mph); Travel Route Time (min)Mean Travel Time Minutes Evacuation Trips; Network LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate C-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table C-2. Input Requirements for the DYNEV II Model HIGHWAY NETWORK* Links defined by upstream and downstream node numbers" Link lengths" Number of lanes (up to 9) and channelization" Turn bays (1 to 3 lanes)" Destination (exit) nodes* Network topology defined in terms of downstream nodes for each receiving link" Node Coordinates (X,Y)" Nuclear Power Plant Coordinates (X,Y)GENERATED TRAFFIC VOLUMES* On all entry links and source nodes (origins), by Time Period TRAFFIC CONTROL SPECIFICATIONS

  • Traffic signals: link-specific, turn movement specific" Signal control treated as fixed time or actuated" Location of traffic control points (these are represented as actuated signals)* Stop and Yield signs* Right-turn-on-red (RTOR)" Route diversion specifications" Turn restrictions
  • Lane control (e.g. lane closure, movement-specific)

DRIVER'S AND OPERATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS

  • Driver's (vehicle-specific) response mechanisms:

free-flow speed, discharge headway" Bus route designation.

DYNAMIC TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT" Candidate destination nodes for each origin (optional)" Duration of DTA sessions" Duration of simulation "burn time"" Desired number of destination nodes per origin INCIDENTS* Identify and Schedule of closed lanes" Identify and Schedule of closed links LaSalle County Generating Station C-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Entry, Exit Nodes are numbered 8xxx Figure C-1. Representative Analysis Network LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate C-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 C.1 Methodology C.1.1 The Fundamental Diagram It is necessary to define the fundamental diagram describing flow-density and speed-density relationships.

Rather than "settling for" a triangular representation, a more realistic representation that includes a "capacity drop", (I-R)Qmax, at the critical density when flow conditions enter the forced flow regime, is developed and calibrated for each link. This representation, shown in Figure C-2, asserts a constant free speed up to a density, kf, and then a linear reduction in speed in the range, kf k < k, = 45 vpm, the density at capacity.

In the flow-density plane, a quadratic relationship is prescribed in the range, k, < k < ks = 95 vpm which roughly represents the "stop-and-go" condition of severe congestion.

The value of flow rate, Qs, corresponding to ks, is approximated at 0.7 RQmax. A linear relationship between ks and kj completes the diagram shown in Figure C-2. Table C-3 is a glossary of terms.The fundamental diagram is applied to moving traffic on every link. The specified calibration values for each link are: (1) Free speed, vf ; (2) Capacity, Qmax; (3) Critical density, kc =45 vpm; (4) Capacity Drop Factor, R = 0.9 ; (5) Jam density, kj. Then, vc, =QmaX , kf= kc-________k RQmax zf r0: k =(Vf-VC) k- Setting k = k -kc, then Q = RQmax 8333 for 0<k<k =50. It can be Qmax 8333 shown that Q = (0.98 -0.0056 k) RQmax for k_ <- k- kj where k, = 50 and k- = 175.C.1.2 The Simulation Model The simulation model solves a sequence of "unit problems".

Each unit problem computes the movement of traffic on a link, for each specified turn movement, over a specified time interval (TI) which serves as the simulation time step for all links. Figure C-3 is a representation of the unit problem in the time-distance plane. Table C-3 is a glossary of terms that are referenced in the following description of the unit problem procedure.

LaSalle County Generating Station C-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Volume, vph R Vf R v, -mph : I II Free Forced'---I I I I I* I I I', I Density, vpm-Density, vpmn kf k, Figure C-2. Fundamental Diagrams Distance I OQ OM OE Qb L Mb Qe Me O Down Up-*Time El E2 TI Figure C-3. A UNIT Problem Configuration with tl > 0 LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate C-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table C-3. Glossary The maximum number of vehicles, of a particular movement, that can discharge from a link within a time interval.Cap The number of vehicles, of a particular movement, that enter the link over the time interval.

The portion, ETI, can reach the stop-bar within the TI.G/C The green time: cycle time ratio that services the vehicles of a particular turn movement on a link.h The mean queue discharge headway, seconds.k Density in vehicles per lane per mile.The average density of moving vehicles of a particular movement over a TI, on a link.L The length of the link in feet.Lb , Le The queue length in feet of a particular movement, at the [beginning, end] of a time interval.The number of lanes, expressed as a floating point number, allocated to service a particular movement on a link.Lv The mean effective length of a queued vehicle including the vehicle spacing, feet.M Metering factor (Multiplier):

1.The number of moving vehicles on the link, of a particular movement, that are Mb, Me moving at the [beginning, end] of the time interval.

These vehicles are assumed to be of equal spacing, over the length of link upstream of the queue.The total number of vehicles of a particular movement that are discharged from a link over a time interval.0 Q, OM ,OE The components of the vehicles of a particular movement that are discharged from a link within a time interval:

vehicles that were Queued at the beginning of the TI; vehicles that were Moving within the link at the beginning of the TI;vehicles that Entered the link during the TI.The percentage, expressed as a fraction, of the total flow on the link that executes a particular turn movement, x.LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate C-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 The number of queued vehicles on the link, of a particular turn movement, at the Qb ,Qe [beginning, end] of the time interval.The maximum flow rate that can be serviced by a link for a particular movement Qmax in the absence of a control device. It is specified by the analyst as an estimate of link capacity, based upon a field survey, with reference to the HCM.R The factor that is applied to the capacity of a link to represent the "capacity drop" when the flow condition moves into the forced flow regime. The lower capacity at that point is equal to RQmax.RCap The remaining capacity available to service vehicles of a particular movement after that queue has been completely serviced, within a time interval, expressed as vehicles.Sx Service rate for movement x, vehicles per hour (vph).tj Vehicles of a particular turn movement that enter a link over the first t 1 seconds of a time interval, can reach the stop-bar (in the absence of a queue down-stream) within the same time interval.TI The time interval, in seconds, which is used as the simulation time step.v The mean speed of travel, in feet per second (fps) or miles per hour (mph), of moving vehicles on the link.VQ The mean speed of the last vehicle in a queue that discharges from the link within the TI. This speed differs from the mean speed of moving vehicles, v.W The width of the intersection in feet. This is the difference between the link length which extends from stop-bar to stop-bar and the block length.c-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate C-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 The formulation and the associated logic presented below are designed to solve the unit problem for each sweep over the network (discussed below), for each turn movement serviced on each link that comprises the evacuation network, and for each TI over the duration of the evacuation.

Given= Qb,Mb,L,TI,Eo,LN, G/C h Lv Ro L Compute = 0, Qe, Me Define O=OQ+OM+OE

E=E 1+E 2 1. For the first sweep, s = 1, of this TI, get initial estimates of mean density, ko , the R -factor, Ro and entering traffic, Eo, using the values computed for the final sweep of the prior TI.For each subsequent sweep, s > 1 , calculate E = Zi Pi Oi + S where Pi , Oi are the relevant turn percentages from feeder link, i, and its total outflow (possibly metered) over this TI; S is the total source flow (possibly metered) during the current TI.Set iteration counter, n = 0, k = k 0 , and E = E 0 .2. Calculate v (k) such that k _ 130 using the analytical representations of the fundamental diagram.Calculate Cap = 360) (G/c) LN,in vehicles, this value may be reduced due to metering SetR= 1.0 if G/C <l orifk k; Set R= 0.9 onlyif G/C =l and k Calculate queue length, Lb = Qb v L tN 3. Calculate t = TI--L Iftl-<, settT=E"=OE=0 Else, El =EL'V TI 4. Then E 2=E-El ; t 2=TI-tj 5. If Qb > Cap, then OQ= CapOM = O= 0 If tj > 0,then Qe = Qb + Mb + El -Cap Else Q'e = Qb -Cap End if Calculate Qe and Me using Algorithm A (below)6. Else (Qb < Cap)OQ = Qb, RCap = Cap -OQ 7. If Mb _ RCap,then LaSalle County Generating Station C-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
8. If t 1 > 0, OM = Mb, OE = min(RCap -Mb, t )Cap 0 Q' = El -OE If Q'e > 0,then Calculate Qe, Me with Algorithm A Else Qe 0, Me = E 2 End if Else (t 1 = 0)OM= (v(TO-Lb)

Mb and OE = 0 ( L-Lb )Me= Mb -OM + E; Qe = 0 End if 9. Else (Mb > RCap)OE= 0 If t 1>0, then Om= RCap, Qe = Mb -OM + E 1 Calculate Qe and Me using Algorithm A 10. Else (t, = 0)Md = [K L-Lb ) Mb]If Md > RCap, then Om RCap Qe = Md -OM Apply Algorithm A to calculate Qe and Me Else OM = Md Me=Mb-OM+E and Qe=O End if End if End if End if 11. Calculate a new estimate of average density, kn = [kb + 2 km + ke], where kb = density at the beginning of the TI ke = density at the end of the TI km = density at the mid-point of the TI All values of density apply only to the moving vehicles.If lkn -kn-1 I > E and n < N where N = max number of iterations, and E is a convergence criterion, then LaSalle County Generating Station C-1O KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0

12. set n = n + 1 , and return to step 2 to perform iteration, n, using k = kn *End if Computation of unit problem is now complete.

Check for excessive inflow causing spillback.

13. If Qe+Me > (L-W) LN then L, The number of excess vehicles that cause spillback is: SB = Qe + Me (L-W),LN where W is the width of the upstream intersection.

To prevent spillback, meter the outflow from the feeder approaches and from the source flow, S, during this TI by the amount, SB. That is, set SB M = 1 -> 0 where M is the metering factor (over all movements).(E + S)This metering factor is assigned appropriately to all feeder links and to the source flow, to be applied during the next network sweep, discussed later.Algorithm A This analysis addresses the flow environment over a TI during which moving vehicles can join a standing or discharging queue. For the case Qb 7QQ'e shown, Qb Cap, with t 1 > 0 and a queue of Qe length, Q'e, formed by that portion of Mb and E that reaches the stop-bar within the TI, but could v + not discharge due to inadequate capacity.

That is, Mb Qb + Mb + E 1 > Cap. This queue length, L3 Qe = Qb + Mb + El -Cap can be extended to Qe by traffic entering the approach during the current t_ t3 JTI, traveling at speed, v, and reaching the rear of the queue within the TI. A portion of the entering T I vehicles, E3 = E will likely join the queue. This 4 TI'analysis calculates t 3 ,Qe and Me for the input values of L, TI, v, E, t, LV, LN, Qe *When t, > 0 and Qb -Cap: Define: L'e = Q'e L .From the sketch, L 3 = v(TI -t, -t 3) = L -(Q'e + E 3) Lv e LN e LN Substituting E 3 =t3 E yields: -vt 3 + t3 E L_ = L -v(TI -t 1) -L'e Recognizing that TI TI LN the first two terms on the right hand side cancel, solve for t 3 to obtain: LaSalle County Generating Station C-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 t3 [vT-E ] such that 0 _ t 3 :5 TI -tj If the denominator, I Tj < 0, sett 3 = TI -t17N t3 1t + t3)Then, Qe =Q' +E Me=E (1TI The complete Algorithm A considers all flow scenarios; space limitation precludes its inclusion, here.C.1.3 Lane Assignment The "unit problem" is solved for each turn movement on each link. Therefore it is necessary to calculate a value, LNx, of allocated lanes for each movement, x. If in fact all lanes are specified by, say, arrows painted on the pavement, either as full lanes or as lanes within a turn bay, then the problem is fully defined. If however there remain un-channelized lanes on a link, then an analysis is undertaken to subdivide the number of these physical lanes into turn movement specific virtual lanes, LNx.C.2 Implementation C.2.1 Computational Procedure The computational procedure for this model is shown in the form of a flow diagram as Figure C-4. As discussed earlier, the simulation model processes traffic flow for each link independently over TI that the analyst specifies; it is usually 60 seconds or longer. The first step is to execute an algorithm to define the sequence in which the network links are processed so that as many links as possible are processed after their feeder links are processed, within the same network sweep. Since a general network will have many closed loops, it is not possible to guarantee that every link processed will have all of its feeder links processed earlier.The processing then continues as a succession of time steps of duration, TI, until the simulation is completed.

Within each time step, the processing performs a series of "sweeps" over all network links; this is necessary to ensure that the traffic flow is synchronous over the entire network. Specifically, the sweep ensures continuity of flow among all the network links; in the context of this model, this means that the values of E, M, and S are all defined for each link such that they represent the synchronous movement of traffic from each link to all of its outbound links. These sweeps also serve to compute the metering rates that control spillback.

Within each sweep, processing solves the "unit problem" for each turn movement on each link.With the turn movement percentages for each link provided by the DTRAD model, an algorithm allocates the number of lanes to each movement serviced on each link. The timing at a signal, if LaSalle County Generating Station C-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 any, applied at the downstream end of the link, is expressed as a G/C ratio, the signal timing needed to define this ratio is an input requirement for the model. The model also has the capability of representing, with macroscopic fidelity, the actions of actuated signals responding to the time-varying competing demands on the approaches to the intersection.

The solution of the unit problem yields the values of the number of vehicles, 0, that discharge from the link over the time interval and the number of vehicles that remain on the link at the end of the time interval as stratified by queued and moving vehicles:

Qe and Me. The procedure considers each movement separately (multi-piping).

After all network links are processed for a given network sweep, the updated consistent values of entering flows, E;metering rates, M; and source flows, S are defined so as to satisfy the "no spillback" condition.

The procedure then performs the unit problem solutions for all network links during the following sweep.Experience has shown that the system converges (i.e. the values of E, M and S "settle down" for all network links) in just two sweeps if the network is entirely under-saturated or in four sweeps in the presence of extensive congestion with link spillback. (The initial sweep over each link uses the final values of E and M, of the prior TI). At the completion of the final sweep for a TI, the procedure computes and stores all measures of effectiveness for each link and turn movement for output purposes.

It then prepares for the following time interval by defining the values of Qb and Mb for the start of the next TI as being those values of Qe and Me at the end of the prior TI. In this manner, the simulation model processes the traffic flow over time until the end of the run. Note that there is no space-discretization other than the specification of network links.LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate C-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure C-4. Flow of Simulation Processing (See Glossary:

Table C-3)LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate C-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 C.2.2 Interfacing with Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTRAD)The DYNEV II system reflects NRC guidance that evacuees will seek to travel in a general direction away from the location of the hazardous event. Thus, an algorithm was developed to identify an appropriate set of destination nodes for each origin based on its location and on the expected direction of travel. This algorithm also supports the DTRAD model in dynamically varying the Trip Table (O-D matrix) over time from one DTRAD session to the next.Figure B-1 depicts the interaction of the simulation model with the DTRAD model in the DYNEV II system. As indicated, DYNEV II performs a succession of DTRAD "sessions";

each such session computes the turn link percentages for each link that remain constant for the session duration,[To , T 2], specified by the analyst. The end product is the assignment of traffic volumes from each origin to paths connecting it with its destinations in such a way as to minimize the network-wide cost function.

The output of the DTRAD model is a set of updated link turn percentages which represent this assignment of traffic.As indicated in Figure B-i, the simulation model supports the DTRAD session by providing it with operational link MOE that are needed by the path choice model and included in the DTRAD cost function.

These MOE represent the operational state of the network at a time, T 1 __5 T2, which lies within the session duration, [To ,T 2] .This "burn time", T 1 -To, is selected by the analyst. For each DTRAD iteration, the simulation model computes the change in network operations over this burn time using the latest set of link turn percentages computed by the DTRAD model. Upon convergence of the DTRAD iterative procedure, the simulation model accepts the latest turn percentages provided by the DTA model, returns to the origin time, To, and executes until it arrives at the end of the DTRAD session duration at time, T 2 .At this time the next DTA session is launched and the whole process repeats until the end of the DYNEV II run.Additional details are presented in Appendix B.LaSalle County Generating Station C-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0

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