RS-14-014, Attachment 1: Kld TR-633, Rev. 0, LaSalle County Generating Station Development of Evacuation Time Estimates, Page D-1 Through Page H-24
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APPENDIX D Detailed Description of Study Procedure D. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF STUDY PROCEDURE This appendix describes the activities that were performed to compute Evacuation Time Estimates.
The individual steps of this effort are represented as a flow diagram in Figure D-1.Each numbered step in the description that follows corresponds to the numbered element in the flow diagram.Step 1 The first activity was to obtain EPZ boundary information and create a GIS base map. The base map extends beyond the Shadow Region which extends approximately 15 miles (radially) from the power plant location.
The base map incorporates the local roadway topology, a suitable topographic background and the EPZ boundary.Step 2 2010 Census block information was obtained in GIS format. This information was used to estimate the resident population within the EPZ and Shadow Region and to define the spatial distribution and demographic characteristics of the population within the study area. Transient, employment, and special facility data were obtained from Exelon, county emergency management agencies, and phone calls to individual facilities.
Step 3 Next, a physical survey of the roadway system in the study area was conducted to determine the geometric properties of the highway sections, the channelization of lanes on each section of roadway, whether there are any turn restrictions or special treatment of traffic at intersections, the type and functioning of traffic control devices, gathering signal timings for pre-timed traffic signals, and to make the necessary observations needed to estimate realistic values of roadway capacity.Step 4 The results of a telephone survey of households within the EPZ were obtained from Exelon to identify household dynamics, trip generation characteristics, and evacuation-related demographic information of the EPZ population.
This information was used to determine important study factors including the average number of evacuating vehicles used by each household, and the time required to perform pre-evacuation mobilization activities.
Step 5 A computerized representation of the physical roadway system, called a link-node analysis network, was developed using the UNITES software (see Section 1.3) developed by KLD. Once the geometry of the network was completed, the network was calibrated using the information gathered during the road survey (Step 3). Estimates of highway capacity for each link and other link-specific characteristics were introduced to the network description.
Traffic signal timings were input accordingly.
The link-node analysis network was imported into a GIS map. 2010 Census data were overlaid in the map, and origin centroids where trips would be generated during the evacuation process were assigned to appropriate links.LaSalle County Generating Station D-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Step 6 The EPZ is subdivided into 13 Sub-areas.
Based on wind direction and speed, Regions (groupings of Sub-areas) that may be advised to evacuate, were developed.
The need for evacuation can occur over a range of time-of-day, day-of-week, seasonal and weather-related conditions.
Scenarios were developed to capture the variation in evacuation demand, highway capacity and mobilization time, for different time of day, day of the week, time of year, and weather conditions.
Step 7 The input stream for the DYNEV II model, which integrates the dynamic traffic assignment and distribution model, DTRAD, with the evacuation simulation model, was created for a prototype evacuation case -the evacuation of the entire EPZ for a representative scenario.Step 8 After creating this input stream, the DYNEV II System was executed on the prototype evacuation case to compute evacuating traffic routing patterns consistent with the appropriate NRC guidelines.
DYNEV II contains an extensive suite of data diagnostics which check the completeness and consistency of the input data specified.
The analyst reviews all warning and error messages produced by the model and then corrects the database to create an input stream that properly executes to completion.
The model assigns destinations to all origin centroids consistent with a (general) radial evacuation of the EPZ and Shadow Region. The analyst may optionally supplement and/or replace these model-assigned destinations, based on professional judgment, after studying the topology of the analysis highway network. The model produces link and network-wide measures of effectiveness as well as estimates of evacuation time.Step 9 The results generated by the prototype evacuation case are critically examined.
The examination includes observing the animated graphics (using the EVAN software which operates on data produced by DYNEV II) and reviewing the statistics output by the model. This is a labor-intensive activity, requiring the direct participation of skilled engineers who possess the necessary practical experience to interpret the results and to determine the causes of any problems reflected in the results.Essentially, the approach is to identify those bottlenecks in the network that represent locations where congested conditions are pronounced and to identify the cause of this congestion.
This cause can take many forms, either as excess demand due to high rates of trip generation, improper routing, a shortfall of capacity, or as a quantitative flaw in the way the physical system was represented in the input stream. This examination leads to one of two conclusions: " The results are satisfactory; or* The input stream must be modified accordingly.
LaSalle County Generating Station D-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 This decision requires, of course, the application of the user's judgment and experience based upon the results obtained in previous applications of the model and a comparison of the results of the latest prototype evacuation case iteration with the previous ones. If the results are satisfactory in the opinion of the user, then the process continues with Step 13. Otherwise, proceed to Step 11.Step 10 There are many "treatments" available to the user in resolving apparent problems.
These treatments range from decisions to reroute the traffic by assigning additional evacuation destinations for one or more sources, imposing turn restrictions where they can produce significant improvements in capacity, changing the control treatment at critical intersections so as to provide improved service for one or more movements, or in prescribing specific treatments for channelizing the flow so as to expedite the movement of traffic along major roadway systems. Such "treatments" take the form of modifications to the original prototype evacuation case input stream. All treatments are designed to improve the representation of evacuation behavior.Step 11 As noted above, the changes to the input stream must be implemented to reflect the modifications undertaken in Step 10. At the completion of this activity, the process returns to Step 9 where the DYNEV II System is again executed.Step 12 Evacuation of transit-dependent evacuees and special facilities are included in the evacuation analysis.
Fixed routing for transit buses and for school buses, ambulances, and other transit vehicles are introduced into the final prototype evacuation case data set. DYNEV II generates route-specific speeds over time for use in the estimation of evacuation times for the transit dependent and special facility population groups.Step 13 The prototype evacuation case was used as the basis for generating all region and scenario-specific evacuation cases to be simulated.
This process was automated through the UNITES user interface.
For each specific case, the population to be evacuated, the trip generation distributions, the highway capacity and speeds, and other factors are adjusted to produce a customized case-specific data set.Step 14 All evacuation cases are executed using the DYNEV II System to compute ETE. Once results are available, quality control procedures are used to assure the results are consistent, dynamic routing is reasonable, and traffic congestion/bottlenecks are addressed properly.LaSalle County Generating Station D-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Step 15 Once vehicular evacuation results are accepted, average travel speeds for transit and special facility routes are used to compute evacuation time estimates for transit-dependent permanent residents, schools, hospitals, and other special facilities.
Step 16 The simulation results are analyzed, tabulated and graphed. The results were then documented, as required by NUREG/CR-7002.
Step 17 Following the completion of documentation activities, the ETE criteria checklist (see Appendix N) was completed.
An appropriate report reference is provided for each criterion provided in the checklist.
LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate D-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Step 1 Create GIS Base Map 4 Step 2 Gather Census Block and Demographic Data for Study Area Step 3 I I Field Survey of Roadways within Study Area IStep 4 Analyze Telephone Survey and Develop Trip Generation Characteristics F- Step 5 Create and Calibrate Link-Node Analysis Network F- Step 6 Develop Evacuation Regions and Scep7/F Step 7 .Step 12 Establish Transit and Special Facility Evacuation Routes and Update DYNEV-11 Database I Step 13 I Create and Debug DYNEV-11 Input Stream_ _ _ Step 8 Generate DYNEV-11 Input Streams for All Evacuation Cases Step 14 Use DYNEV-11 Average Speed Output to Compute ETE for Transit and Special Facility Routes IStep 15 1~Execute DYNEV II for Prototype Evacuation Case I Use DYNEV-11 Results to Estimate Transit and Special Facilities Evacuation Time Estimates Step 16 DocumentationStep 17 J Complete ETE Criteria Checklist Figure D-1. Flow Diagram of Activities LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate D-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 APPENDIX E Special Facility Data E. SPECIAL FACILITY DATA The following tables list population information, as of March 2014, for special facilities, recreational areas and major employers that are located within the LAS EPZ. Special facilities are defined as schools, preschools, day camps, medical facilities and military installations.
Transient population data is included in the table for recreational areas. Employment data is included in the table for major employers.
Each table is grouped by county. The location of the facility is defined by its straight-line distance (miles) and direction (magnetic bearing) from the center point of the plant. Maps of each school, preschool, day camp, medical facility, recreational area, military installation and major employer are also provided.LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate E-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table E-1. Schools within the EPZ 4 10.5 SW Grace Church-Rhema Christian Academy 1634 IL-23 Streator 32 N/A 5 6.4 S Ransom Consolidated School 400 South Lane St. Ransom 114 23 Grand Ridge Community Consolidated (CC)7 8.7 W School 400 West Main St. Grand Ridge 337 43 8 9.9 WNW Central Intermediate School 711 East McKinley Rd. Ottawa 474 N/A 8 9.9 WNW Shepherd Middle School 701 East McKinley Rd. Ottawa 419 80 10 5.6 NNW Marseilles Elementary School 201 Chicago St. Marseilles 673 80 10 5.4 NE Seneca CC School North Campus 174 Oak St. Seneca 292 50 10 5.1 NE Seneca CC School South Campus 410 South Main St. Seneca 188 49 10 5.9 NE Seneca Township High School 307 East Scott St. Seneca 503 104--ý -z ---T N/A: Not available LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate E-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table E-2. Preschools and Day Camps within the EPZ Dsta c .-I -Enol Laal Cony IL 4 11.4 SW Holy Trinity Lutheran Preschool 101 Trinity Dr.Streator 90 8 9.2 NW Girl Scout Camp Pokanoka North 2703rd Rd. Fall River 120 10 5.1 NE Glory Land Kids Childcare Center 423 South Main St. Seneca 22 10 5.5 NE Seneca Head Start 104 North Main St. Seneca 18 Table E-3. Medical Facilities within the EPZ-ma -hel -ed 4 11.4 SW Heritage Manor 1525 East Main St. Streator 125 29 96 0 Ottawa Friendship 1718 North 2525th15500 8 9.3 WW House Rd. Ottawa 11 6.3 NW Rivershores Center 578 Commercial St. Marseilles 70 16 54 0 LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate E-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table E-4. Employers within the EPZ t. / I NIL U- inaustries I ?5/ouwvest uuronT Ka. 1 zeneca rIot a major empioyer 1 7.5 NE Evenson Explosives 2019 Dunn Rd. Morris 70 75.6% 53 9 7.0 NE Forbo Adhesives, LLC 7440 West Dupont Rd. Morris 7 8. W raico S (ran Rige) 00 ailoadSt.Grad RdgeNot a major employer'9 6.8 NE Oricha Nitrogen, LLC 7700 West Dupont Rd. Morris 10~~~~Gud Co.3t N GeGeCr.10EatBody MrSeilotles 70 75.6% 538 15dC121 'e Boawy, IMsL 1 LaSalle Generating Station 2601 North 21st Rd. Marseilles 795 75.6% 602 1 4.3 NE Spicer Gravel Company 2195 East Bluff St. Marseilles 5 6.1 S Ransom Fertilizer 108 West Campbell St. Ransom 7 8.5 W Grainco FS (Grand Ridge) 300 Railroad St. Grand Ridge Not a major employer'7 8.8 W Mycogen 2017 IL-23 Grand Ridge 8 9.5 WNW Grainco FS (Ottawa) 3300 N. State Route 23 Grand Ridge 10 5.3 N Glen Gery Corp. 1401 East Broadway Marseilles 50 75.6% 38 10 7.8 NNW Hicksgas 2904 East 24th Rd. Marseilles Not a major employer'10 5.5 N Independence Tube Corp. 1201 Broadway Marseilles 50 75.6% 38 10 5.2 N Infra Metals 1601 East Broadway Marseilles 65 75.6% 50 10 5.2 N PCS Phosphate 2651 IL-6 Marseilles 10 5.2 N Royster Clark 1800 East Broadway MarseillesNo amj re ply '10 5.8 NE Shipyard Terminal and Industrial Park Shipyard Rd. Seneca 11 9.6 NW ADM Growmark Towpath Rd. Ottawa 11 6.2 NNW Liberty Laser Solutions 375 Commercial St. Marseilles 50 75.6% 38 11 10.1 NW LMK Technologies 1779 Chessie Ln. Ottawa so 75.6% 38 11 6.0 NNW Marseilles Mattress Factory 220 Commercial St. MarseillesNo amj re ply " 11 6.4 NNW Marseilles Waste Treatment 2 Spicer St. Marseilles 11 9.9 NW Mini-Grip Zip-Pack 1510 Warehouse Dr. Ottawa 50 75.6% 38 11 7.8 NW Sabic Plastics 2148 North 2753rd Rd Ottawa 300 75.6% 227 11 10.1 NW Silica Sand Transport 1S21 Warehouse Dr. Ottawa Not a maior emoloverl 1 Phone calls were made to facilities designated as "not a major employer" to verify the total employment is less than 50 employees.
LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate E-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table E-5. Recreational Areas within the EPZ 0ldCK 5 Miarina t#ncnor inn Marina)I 4.8 NE 1 East DuPont Rd.Seneca 150 65 1 5.4 NNW Illini State Park Illinois and Michigan Canal Marseilles 2,000 870 1 1.7 ENE LaSalle Lake Fish and Wildlife Area 2651 North 21st Rd. Marseilles 450 196 1 5.4 NNW Marseilles Boat Club 2451 N 2659th Rd. Marseilles 32 14 1 2.4 NNW Marseilles Wildlife Area 2374 East 25th Rd. Marseilles 20 9 1 4.6 NE Seneca Yacht Club 219 West River Dr. Seneca 100 44 1 4.2 NNE Spring Brook Marina 623 North 2553rd Rd. Seneca 450 196 3 4.4 NW Troll Hollow Campground 2265 N 2453 Rd. Marseilles 150 75 Four Star Campground 10 6.3 N (Whispering Pines) 2776 East 2625th Rd. Marseilles 400 200 10 5.9 NNW Glenwood Farms Campground 551 LaSalle St. Marseilles 400 200 10 4.7 NE Mariners Village and Marina 320 Village Ln. Seneca 348 151 10 6.0 NE Seneca Hunt Club 3 East Union St Seneca 50 22 10 6.7 NNE Woodsmoke Ranch 2795 East 28th Rd. Seneca 3,416 1,871 11 9.2 NW Heritage Harbor 1982 North 2753rd Rd. Ottawa 278 121 Table E-6. Military Training Center within the EPZ 1 1.6 NNW Illinois National Guard Training Center 1700 Army Rd. Marseilles 556 278 LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate E-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure E-1. Schools, Preschools and Day Camps within the LAS EPZ LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate E-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure E-2. Medical Facilities within the LAS EPZ LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate E-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 0 Figure E-3. Employers within the LAS EPZ LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate E-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure E-4. Recreation Areas and Military Training Centers within the LAS EPZ LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate E-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 APPENDIX F Telephone Survey F. TELEPHONE SURVEY F.1 Introduction The development of evacuation time estimates for the LAS EPZ requires the identification of travel patterns, car ownership and household size of the population within the EPZ.Demographic information can be obtained from Census data. The use of this data has several limitations when applied to emergency planning.
First, the Census data do not encompass the range of information needed to identify the time required for preliminary activities (mobilization) that must be undertaken prior to evacuating the area. Secondly, Census data do not contain attitudinal responses needed from the population of the EPZ and consequently may not accurately represent the anticipated behavioral characteristics of the evacuating populace.These concerns are addressed by conducting a telephone survey of a representative sample of the EPZ population.
The survey is designed to elicit information from the public concerning family demographics and estimates of response times to well defined events. The design of the survey includes a limited number of questions of the form "What would you do if ...?" and other questions regarding activities with which the respondent is familiar ("How long does it take you to ...?")Attachment A presents the final survey instrument used in this study. A sample size of 376 completed survey forms yields results with a sampling error of +/-5% at the 95% confidence level. The sample must be drawn from the EPZ population.
The preliminary determination of whether a household was located inside the EPZ was based on "land-line" telephone listings with street addresses.
Telephone surveys were then conducted using those numbers, selected in random order, until the target level of surveys was completed, or the entire calling list was exhausted.
Rejections or households outside the EPZ were discarded.
Numbers with "no answer" were re-cycled for up to ten attempts in different time windows.F.2 Survey Results The results of the survey fall into two categories.
First, the household demographics of the area can be identified.
Demographic information includes such factors as household size, automobile ownership, and automobile availability.
The distributions of the time to perform certain pre-evacuation activities are the second category of survey results. These data are processed to develop the trip generation distributions used in the evacuation modeling effort, as discussed in Section 5.A review of the survey instrument reveals that several questions have a "don't know" (DK) or"refused" entry for a response.
It is accepted practice in conducting surveys of this type to accept the answers of a respondent who offers a DK response for a few questions or who refuses to answer a few questions.
To address the issue of occasional DK/refused responses from a large sample, the practice is to assume that the distribution of these responses is the same as the underlying distribution of the positive responses.
In effect, the DK/refused responses are ignored and the distributions are based upon the positive data that is acquired.LaSalle County Generating Station F-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 F.2.1 Household Demographic Results Household Size Figure F-i presents the distribution of household size within the EPZ. The average household contains 2.30 people.Household Size 60% --0 50%0 540%0 Z 30%.o-0 c 20%o~10%0%1 2 3 4 5 6+People Figure F-i. Household Size in the EPZ Automobile Ownership The average number of automobiles available per household in the EPZ is 2.03. 4.28% of households do not have a vehicle available, as shown in Figure F-2.Vehicle Availability IA 0 45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%0 1 2 3 4 Vehicles per Household 5 6+Figure F-2. Household Vehicle Availability LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate F-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Commuters Figure F-3 presents the distribution of the number of commuters in each household.
Commuters are defined as household members who travel to work or college on a daily basis.The data shows an average of 0.84 commuters in each household in the EPZ, and 49% of households have at least one commuter.____ ___-Commuters 60%50%0 40%0 x 30%20%&10%4--0% +--0 1 2 3 Commuters per Household 4 5 Figure F-3. Commuters in Households in the EPZ LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate F-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 F.2.2 Evacuation Response Questions were asked to gauge the population's response to an emergency.
These are now discussed: "How many vehicles would your household take if an evacuation were ordered when all household members were at home??" The response is shown in Figure F-4. On average, evacuating households would use 1.26 vehicles.Evacuating Vehicles Per Household FA 0 0-4--C 0.90%80%70%60% -50% -40% -30%20% -10% -0% -2 4 1 2 3 4 Vehicles Figure F-4. Number of Vehicles Used for Evacuation LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate F-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 "If an evacuation notice were given while [the primary commuter]
was at work, do you think they would most likely..." The response is shown in Figure F-5. Of the survey participants who responded, 33 percent indicated they would evacuate from work, 49 percent said they would return home first and then evacuate, and 18 percent indicated that they would stay outside the evacuation zone where they work.Commuter Evacuation Response 60%50%"0 40%0 X 30%0 5 20%o 10%-t --0%-Evacuate from Work Return Home Stay outside Evacuation Zone Figure F-5. Commuter Evacuation Response LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate F-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 F.2.3 Time Distribution Results The survey asked several questions about the amount of time it takes to perform certain pre-evacuation activities.
These activities involve actions taken by residents during the course of their day-to-day lives. Thus, the answers fall within the realm of the responder's experience.
The mobilization distributions provided below are the result of having applied the analysis described in Section 5.4.1 on the component activities of the mobilization."How long do you think it would take [the primary commuter]
to get prepared and actually leave work?" Figure F-6 presents the cumulative distribution; in all cases, the activity is completed within 75 minutes. Ninety-four percent can leave within 30 minutes.Time to Prepare to Leave Work 4)E E 0 U 4-0~100%80%60%40%20%0%0 15 30 45 60 Preparation Time (min)75 Figure F-6. Time Required to Prepare to Leave Work LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate F-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 "About how long does it take [the primary commuter]
to get from work to home?" Figure F-7 presents the work to home travel time for the EPZ. Approximately 86 percent of commuters can arrive home within 30 minutes of leaving work; all within 75 minutes.Work to Home Travel 100%80%E 60%0 40%20%a0 0%0 15 30 45 60 75 Travel Time (min)Figure F-7. Work to Home Travel Time F-7 KLD Engineering, p.c.LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate F-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 "If an evacuation were ordered when all household members were at home (for example, at night or on a weekend), approximately how long would it take your household to prepare to depart? Please assume that you are advised to plan to be away from your home for 3 days." Figure F-8 presents the time required to prepare for leaving on an evacuation trip. In many ways this activity mimics a family's preparation for a short holiday or weekend away from home. Hence, the responses represent the experience of the responder in performing similar activities.
About 76 percent of households can be ready to leave home within 40 minutes; the remaining households require up to an additional 80 minutes.Preparation Time with Everyone Home 100%0 03 W4-0 W-CL 80%60%40%20%0%0 30 60 90 Preparation Time (min)120 Figure F-8. Time to Prepare Home for Evacuation The survey conducted in support of this study did not ask residents how long it would take them to remove snow from their driveway if there were snow on the ground when an evacuation was ordered. As discussed in Section 5.3, the response to the snow removal question in a survey conducted in 2012 in support of ETE development for the Duane Arnold Energy Center (DAEC) is adapted for this study. DAEC is located in Iowa, approximately 170 miles west-northwest of LAS. It is assumed that snowfall and snow removal times are comparable in both EPZs.F-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate F-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 "How long would it take you to clear 6 to 8 inches of snow from your driveway?" During adverse, snowy weather conditions, an additional activity must be performed before residents can depart on the evacuation trip. Although snow scenarios assume that the roads and highways have been plowed and are passable (albeit at lower speeds and capacities), it may be necessary to clear a private driveway prior to leaving the home so that the vehicle can access the street. Figure F-9 presents the time distribution for removing 6 to 8 inches of snow from a driveway.
The time distribution for clearing the driveway has a long tail; about 96 percent of driveways are passable within 60 minutes. The last driveway is cleared two hours after the start of this activity.
Note that those respondents (46%) who answered that they would not take time to clear their driveway were assumed to be ready immediately at the start of this activity.
Essentially they would drive through the snow on the driveway to access the roadway and begin their evacuation trip.Time to Remove Snow from Driveway 0i 0 0 100%80%60%40%20%0%0 15 30 45 60 Time (min)75 90 105 120 Figure F-9. Time to Clear Driveway of 6V-8" of Snow F.3 Conclusions The telephone survey provides valuable, relevant data associated with the EPZ population, which have been used to quantify demographics specific to the EPZ, and "mobilization time" which can influence evacuation time estimates.
LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate F-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 ATTACHMENT A Telephone Survey Instrument LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate F-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Telephone Survey Instrument Exelon Survey Final v6 -August 23, 2011 INTRODUCTION Hello, my name is and I am calling fiom MDC Research, a public opinion firm. We are conducting a brief survey to gather information from households in your area about emergency response planning, and we'd like to include your opinions.
This survey is being conducted on behalf of the (insert facility name) Nuclear Facility, and will take approximately 5 minutes to complete.
We are not trying to sell you anything.
The information gathered from this survey will help local agencies more effectively provide community assistance should an emergency situation arise.Can I please speak with an adult member of the household?
SCREENER S1. What is the zip code of your primary residence?
This is the home where you live the majority of the time. DO NOT READ ZIP CODE LIST List of appropriate zip codes will be displayed here 99999 Location outside the EPZ -THANK & TERMINATE S2. Which of the following categories best describes your age?11 Under 18 yrs of age -ASK FOR REFERRAL or THANK & TERMINATE 12 18 to 24 13 25 to 34 14 35 to 44 15 45 to 54 16 55 to 64 17 65 to 74 18 75 or older 98 (DO NOT READ) Refused QUESTIONNAIRE Q I How many people currently reside in your household?
Record: # of residents 98 (DO NOT READ) Refused -THANK & TERMINATE Q2 How many motor vehicles are normally based at your home?Record: # of vehicles 997 None -SKIP TO Q14 998 (DO NOT READ) Refused LaSalle County Generating Station F-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Q3 How many members of your household are over the age of 16?Record: # of residents 998 (DO NOT READ) Refused Q4 How many members of your household are licensed drivers?Record: # of drivers 998 (DO NOT READ) Refused Q5 How many of the adults in your household work outside the home?Record 0 Skip to Q6A 997 None -Continue to Q5A 998 (DO NOT READ) Refused If refused, explain; The nature of this project is to estimate traffic volumes and flow in the event of an emergency evacuation, so this data is necessary in order for us to continue with the survey.If still refused -THANK & TERMINATE Q5A (ONLY ASK IF Q5=997) Which of the following best describes the non-working adults in your household?
MULTIPLE MENTION -IP NOTE: No more mentions than Q3 mentions.11 Currently unemployed/actively looking for work 12 Retired 13 On Disability or leave of absence 14 Student/continuing education 15 Homemaker 99 Other -please specify SKIP TO Q1I Repeat the following Q6A-F sequence for each working adult cited in Q5 For each of the working adults you just referenced, I'd like to ask a few questions related to what their likely actions would be in the case of an emergency evacuation.
I understand that I will be asking you to speculate on what other members of the household may do in this situation, but your best guesses are just fine for our purposes.Q6A Who is the first working adult in the household that you are thinking about? What is their relationship to you?1 Self 2 Spouse or significant other 3 Parent of child 4 Other relative or in-law 5 Roommate 6 Boarder 7 Other LaSalle County Generating Station F-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Q6B Which of the following best describes this person's usual work schedule?1 Monday -Friday, 8:00am to 5:00pm 2 Swing Shift 3 Graveyard 4 Evenings and weekends 5 Rotating shifts 6 Other or irregular schedule 7 (DO NOT READ) Don't know Q6C Does this person generally use a personal vehicle to commute back and forth to work?I Yes 2 No 7 (DO NOT READ) Don't know Q6D If an evacuation notice were given while this person was at work, do you think they would most likely...1 Evacuate directly from work 2 Come home first and then evacuate, or 3 Stay outside the evacuation zone where they work D Skip to Q7 7 (DO NOT READ) Don't know Q6E How long do you think it would take this person to get prepared and actually leave work?(Read list if necessary) 1 Less than 15 minutes 2 15 to 30 minutes 3 30 to 45 minutes 4 45 to 60 minutes 5 More than 60 minutes 7 (DO NOT READ) Don't know If response at 6D is 1, skip from here to Q7 Q6F About how long does it take this household member to get from work to home?(Read list if necessary)
I Less than 15 minutes 2 15 to 30 minutes 3 30 to 45 minutes 4 45 to 60 minutes 5 More than 60 minutes 7 (DO NOT READ) Don't know Q7A-F Repeat Q6 sequence for worker #2 Q8A-F Repeat Q6 sequence for worker #3 Q9A-F Repeat Q6 sequence for worker #4 LaSalle County Generating Station F-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Q 10 And once everyone who is coming home from work has arrived, how long would it take to prepare and depart from home, taking into consideration whether or not someone else is usually home who may be starting these preparation while they are travelling?
I Less than 15 minutes 2 15 to 30 minutes 3 30 to 45 minutes 4 45 to 60 minutes 5 More than 60 minutes 7 (DO NOT READ) Don't know Q 1I Are any of the licensed drivers in your household restricted to daytime driving only?1 Yes 2 No 9 (DO NOT READ) Refused Q12 If an evacuation were ordered when all household members were at home (for example, at night or on a weekend), approximately how long would it take your household to prepare to depart? Please assume that you are advised to plan to be away from your home for 3 days. Would you say that it would take... READ LIST 1 Less than 20 minutes to depart 2 20 to 40 minutes to depart 3 40 to 60 minutes to depart 4 60 to 90 minutes to depart; or 5 More than 90 minutes to depart Q 13 How many vehicles would your household take if an evacuation were ordered when all household members were at home?Record: # of vehicles 998 (DO NOT READ) Refused Q14 Are any members of your household seasonal residents?
And by seasonal we mean any people who do not reside in your home the majority of the year.1 Yes 2 No -SKIP TO Q15 9 (DO NOT READ) Refused Q14A (ASK IF Q14=l) How many of your <insert Q1 response>
household members are seasonal?Record: # of seasonal household members 998 (DO NOT READ) Refused QI4B (ASK IF Q14=1) What seasons do they live in another location away from your home?READ LIST -Multiple Mention 1 Spring 2 Summer 3 Fall LaSalle County Generating Station F-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 4 Winter Q 15 Would any member of your household require a specialized vehicle, such as a wheelchair, van or ambulance, to evacuate from your home in case of an emergency?
I Yes 2 No 9 (DO NOT READ) Refused This is all the questions we have for you today/tonight.
Thank you for participating in this survey. Your responses will help us to make an accurate prediction of traffic conditions during an emergency situation.
If you have any questions about this survey, please feel free to contact<insert contact name, job title, and phone number/email>.
LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate F-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 APPENDIX G Traffic Management Plan G. TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT PLAN NUREG/CR-7002 indicates that the existing TCPs and ACPs identified by the offsite agencies should be used in the evacuation simulation modeling.
The traffic and access control plans for the EPZ were provided by the Illinois Emergency Management Agency.These plans were reviewed and the TCPs and ACPs were modeled accordingly.
G.1 Traffic Control Points As discussed in Section 9, traffic control points at intersections (which are controlled) are modeled as actuated signals. If an intersection has a pre-timed signal, stop, or yield control, and the intersection is identified as a traffic control point, the control type was changed to an actuated signal in the DYNEV II system. Table K-2 provides the control type and node number for those nodes which are controlled.
If the existing control was changed due to the point being a TCP, the control type is indicated as "TCP -Actuated" or "TCP -Uncontrolled" in Table K-2.The TCPs and ACPs within the study area are mapped in Figure G-1.G.2 Access Control Points It is assumed that ACPs will be established within 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> of the advisory to evacuate to discourage through travelers from using major through routes which traverse the EPZ. As discussed in Section 3.6, external traffic was considered on the major route which traverses the study area 80 -in this study. The generation of the external trips ceases at 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> after the advisory to evacuate in the simulation due to the ACPs.As shown in Figure G-1, the TCPs and ACPs identified in the county and state emergency plans are concentrated along major evacuation routes and on roadways giving access to the EPZ.These TCPs and ACPs would be manned during evacuation by traffic guides who would direct evacuees in the proper direction away from the plant and facilitate the flow of traffic through the intersections.
Detailed descriptions of each of the TCPs and ACPs and the actions to be taken by traffic guides at these intersections are provided in the county and state plans. These actions were modeled explicitly in the DYNEV II system. For additional information, refer to the county and state plans.As discussed in Section 9, this study did not identify any additional intersections as TCPs or ACPs. The existing county and state traffic management plans are comprehensive in terms of discouraging traffic from entering the EPZ.LaSalle County Generating Station G-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
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-KDEgnernPd Evacuationub a:m Esiat3ev APPENDIX H Evacuation Regions H. EVACUATION REGIONS This appendix presents the evacuation percentages for each Evacuation Region (Table H-i) and maps of all Evacuation Regions (Figure H-1 through Figure H-22). The percentages presented in Table H-1 are based on the methodology discussed in assumption 5 of Section 2.2 and shown in Figure 2-1.Note the baseline ETE study assumes 20 percent of households will not comply with the shelter advisory, as per Section 2.5.2 of NUREG/CR-7002.
The City of Marseilles, Illinois is split between 2 Sub-areas.
The eastern half of the city is in Sub-area 10, while the western half is in Sub-area 11. Based on discussions with Exelon and the offsite agencies, the city would always evacuate as a whole when wind is blowing toward the city (Sub-area 10, 11, or both included in keyhole).
Thus, keyholes wherein Sub-area 10 is included, but not Sub-area 11 would still result in the City of Marseilles evacuating entirely.
For example Region R08 is an evacuation of the 5-mile radius and downwind to the EPZ boundary with wind toward the northeast or east-northeast.
When the wind is toward the northeast, Marseilles is in the keyhole (when using the 3-sector approach described in Section 6) and the entire city evacuates.
When the wind is toward the east-northeast, the city is not within the keyhole, but Sub-area 10 (which includes Marseilles) is. Thus, the entire city evacuates.
Similarly, keyholes wherein Sub-area 11 is included, but not Sub-area 10 would also result in the entire city evacuating.
For example, Region R17, with the wind blowing toward the west-northwest, Marseilles is not within the keyhole, but Sub-area 11 (which includes Marseilles) is.Thus, the entire city evacuates.
The evacuation of the City of Marseilles is shown graphically in Figures H-6 through H-8 and H-17 through H-19.LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate H-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table H-1. Percent of Sub-area Population Evacuating for Each Region Region wino uirection Toward:)uo-area 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 I 10 1 11 1 13 1 17 N, NNE, NE, N/A ENE, E, ESE Refer to Region R01 R04 SE, SSE, S 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20 20% 20%N/A SSW Refer to Region R02 R2S NNW Z0% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%Wind Direction Sub-area Region Toward: 1 2 4 5 7 8 9 10 11 17 R06 N 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%R07 NNE 20% 20% 20% 20% 0% 20%R08 NE, ENE 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%R09 E 20% 20% 20% 20% 2 %RIO ESE 20% 20 20% 20% 20% 20%R11 SE 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%R12 SSE 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%R13 S 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%R14 SSW 20% 20 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%R15 SW, WSW 20% 20 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%R16 W 20% 20 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%R17 WNW 20% 20 20% 20% 20% 20%R18 NW 0 2 20% 0 20% 20% 20% 20%R19 NNW 20% 20% 20% 0% 20% 20% 20%-.-**. ..FIR -It , 3 Wind Direction Sub-area Region Toward: 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 13 17 R20 5-Mile Ring 20% 20% 20%120%I 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%N, NNE, NE, N/A ENE, E, ESE Refer to Region R01 R21 SE, SSE, S 20%A 20% 20% 20% 1 20% 1 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%N/A SSAAW Refer tn R.uinn R02!,.inWV SW, WSW, W, WNW, NW, NNW 20%20%20%20%20%20% 20%20%20%R22 20%20%L I l I I I I 5puD-arealsJ Shelter-in-Piace Note: The entire city of Marseilles evacuates when either Sub-area 10 or Sub-area 11 evacuates.
LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate H-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 I Figure H-i. Region R01 LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate H-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 0 I Figure H-2. Region R02 LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate H-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure H-3. Region R03 H-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.La~alle LOUnty Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate H-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure H-4. Region R04 LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate H-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure H-S. Region ROS LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate H-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure H-6. Region R06 LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate H-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure H-7. Region R07 LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate H-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure H-8. Region R08 LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate H-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure H-9. Region R09 LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate H-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure H-IO. Region RIO LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate H-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure H-11. Region R11 LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate H-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 I Figure H-12. Region R12 LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate H-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure H-13. Region R13 LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate H-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 I Figure H-14. Region R14 LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate H-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 0 I Figure H-15. Region R15 LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate H-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure H-16. Region R16 LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate H-18 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure H-17. Region R17 LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate H-19 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure H-18. Region R18 LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate H-20 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure H-19. Region R19 H-21 KLD Engineering, P.C.La~alle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate H-21 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure H-20. Region R20 LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate H-22 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure H-21. Region R21 LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate H-23 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure H-22. Region R22 LaSalle County Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate H-24 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0