ML20040D125

Public Version of Oconee Nuclear Station Evacuation Analysis,Evacuation Time Estimates.

ML20040D125
Person / Time
Site:	Oconee
Issue date:	12/31/1981
From:	PLANNING RESEARCH CORP.
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Oconee Nuclear Station Evacuation Analysis Evacuation Time Estimates Prepared for Duke Power Company December 1981 Prepared by l

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PRC VGORHEES A Division of PRC Planning & Economics 1500 Planning Research Drive McLean, Virginia 22102 h h

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Oconee Nuclear Station Evacuation Analysis EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES Prepared for:

DUKE POWER COMPANY December 1981 Prepared by:

PRC VOORHEES A Division of Planning & Economics 1500 Planning Research Drive McLean, Virginia 22102 20 a

3 TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Figures . . . . . . .

. . . . I List of Tables . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . Iv i

. . . . . . . . y Chapter Page I INTRODUCTION. . . . . . . . . . .

. . 1 Purpose of This Study . . . . . . . . . . 1 Location of the Oconee Nuclear Station . . . . . 1 State and Local Off-Site Preparedness Planning . . . 1 Summary of the Method for Estimating Evacuation Times . . . . . . . . . .

Summary of Evacuation Times . . . . . . .

. . . . 3

. 4 II CHARACTERISTICS OF THE OCONEE NUCLEAR STATION VICINITY . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Land Use in the 10-Mile Radius of the Oconee Nuclear Station . . . . . . . 5 Highway System in the 10-Mile Radius of the Oconee Nuclear Station . . . . . . . 5 Other Transportation Facilities in the Oconee Station Area . . . . . . . . 7 Governmental Jurisdictions. . . . . . . . . 7 Special Facilities Within the 10-Mile Radius of the Oconee Nuclear Station . . . . . . . 7 11 1 .

THE EMERGENCY PLANNING ZONE FOR THE OCONEE NUCLEAR POWER STATION . . . . . . . . . 11 Guidelines for Defining the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 The EPZ Boundary for the Oconee Nuclear Station . . 11 Selective Evacuation Subareas . . . . . . . . 13 j IV POPULATION OF THE OCONEE EPZ. . . . . . . 16 Population Segments . . . . . . . . . . 16 Special Facility Population . . . . .

Population Distribution .

. . . . 16

. . . . . . . . . 19 V

, THE EVACUATION SEQUENCE FOR THE OCONEE

( EMERGENCY PLANNING ZONE (EPZ) . . . . . . 20

Time Periods in Which Evacuation Might Occur . . . 21 Population Segments to be Evacuated. . . . . . 24 Evacuation Action Steps . . . . . . ,

. . . 24 Evacuation of Permanent Resident Population (Auto-Owning) . . . . . . . . . . . 26 '

Evacuation of Permanent Resident Population (Non-Auto-Owning) . . . . . . . . . . 29 Evacuation of Transient Population .

l . . . . . 30 i Evacuation of Special Facility Population (Schools) . . 31 '

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Table of Contents, Continued Chapte_r Page Evacuation of Special Facility Population (Institutions) . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Summary of Evacuation Process . . . . . . . 32 VI EVACUATION ROUTES. . . . . . . . . . . 35 Designated Evacuation Reutes . . . . . . . . 35 Capacities of the Evacuation Routes . . . . . . 35 Evacuation Travelsheds . . . . . . . . . . 37 Distribution of Traffic to the Evacuation Routes . . 40 Felationship of Evacuation Traffic Volumes and Route Capacities . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 VII

SUMMARY

OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES . . . 42 Conditions and Time Periods . . . . . . . . 42 Method for Estimating Evacuation Time . . . . . 42 Evacuation Time for the Permanent Resident Popula-tion (auto-Owning), Fall / Winter Weekday, Normal

' Weather Conditions . . . . . . . . . . 43 Evacuation Time for the Permanent Resident Popula-tion (Non-Auto-Owning). . . . . . . . . 54 Evacuation Time for the Transient Population .. . 59 Evacuation Time for the Special Facility Populatien (Schools) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 Evacuation Time for the Special Fccility Population (Institutions) . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 Summary of Evacuation Times for Normal Conditions . 68 Evacuation Times for a Fall / Winter Saturday, During a Football Game at Clemson Stadium . . . . . 68 i

Evacuation Times for Fall / Winter Weekday (Severe Weather Conditions). . . . . . . . . . 70 l Summary of Times for Selective Evacuations

. . . 71 VIII CONFIRMATION OF EVACUATICN . . . . . . . 72 Confirmation Process . . . . . . . . . . 72 Possible Approaches to Confirming the Evacuation l of the EPZ . . . . . . . . . . . . 72 Recommended Concept for Confirming Evacuation in the Oconee EPZ . . . . . . . . . . 73 Time Required for Confirmstion . . . . . . . 73 APPENDIX A POPULATION BY 22.5 DEGREE SECTORS . . . . A-1 APPENDIX B DERIVATION OF NON-AUTO-OWNING POPULATION AND NUMBER OF CARS USED FOR EVACUATION . B-1 APPENDIX C DESCRIPTION OF EVACPLAN MODELS USED IN THE ANALYSIS OF EVACUATION TIMES . . . . . . C-1 l

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LIST OF FIGURES Number Page 1

Location of the Oconee Nuclear Station . . . . . . . 2 2 Highway System in the Vicinity of the Oconee Nuclear Station . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 3

Other Transportation Facilities in the Vicinity of the Oconee Nuclear Station . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 4 Local Government Jurisdictions . . . . . . . . . 9 5 Location of Special Facilities . . . . . . . . . . 10 6 Emergency Plannir.g Zone (EPZ) for the Oconee Nuclear Station . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 7

Selective Evacuation Zones for the Oconee EPZ. . . . . 15 8

Time Periods in Which Evacuation Can Occ9r . . . . . 22 9

Population Segments and Evacuation Sequences . . . . . 25 10 Evacuation Routes for the Oconee Nuclear Station . . . . ?6 11 Evacuation Networks and Travelsheds for the Oconce Nuclear Station . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 12 Evacuation Time for the Permanent Resident Population (Auto-Owning) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 l 13 Possible Levels of Traffic Congestion. . . . . . . . 52 14 Traffic Cor.gestion Summary .

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. . . . . . . . . 55 l 15 Evacuation Times for the Permanent Resident Population (Non-Auto-Owning) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 1

16 Evacuation Times for the Transient Population . . . . . 61 l 17 Evaceation Times for the Special Facilities Population (Schools) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 18 Evacuation Times for the Special Facility Population (Institutions) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 I

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LIST OF TABLES Number Page 1

Local Government Units Within 10-Mile Radius and EPZ of the Oconee Nuclear Station. . . . . . . . . . . . 14 2 Populathn fo the Oconee ERZ and Zones . . . . . . . 17 3 Special Facilities Populaticn in the Oconee EPZ. . . . . 18 4 Summary of Evacuation Action Steps . . . . . . . . 34 5 Capacity of Evacuation Routes . . . . . . . . . 38 6 Traffic Volumes and Capacities for Evacuation Routes . . . 41 7 Tirne Distribution for " Receive Notification" Step . . . . 44 8 Time Distribution for " Leave Place of Work" Step . . . . 45 9 Time Distribution for " Work-to-Home Travel" Step . . . . 46 10 Time Distribution for " Prepare for Evacuating Home" Step . 47 11 Time Distribution for " Prepare for Evacuating Home" Step for Non-Auto-Owning Population . . . . . . . . . 56 l 12 Time Distribution for " Evacuate Non-Auto-Owning Popula-

! tion in Buses" Step . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 13 Time Distribution for " Assemble Traveling Group" Step for '

Transient Fopulation . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 16 Time Distribution for " Receive Notification" Step for School Popuiation . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 17 Time Distribution for " Evacuate School Population in Buses" Step . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 16 Time Distribution for "Mcbilize Population" Step for Popula-tion in Institutions . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 17 Time Distribution for " Evacuate lastitutional Population in l Buses and Special Vehicles" Step . . . . . . . . . 66 IS Summary of Evacuation Times . . . . . . . . . . 69 Y

i CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTION PURPOSE OF THIS STUDY The study summarized in this report was made to determine the time needed to evacuate the population of the 10-mile Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) surround-ing the Oconee Nuclear Station in Oconee County, South Carolina.

LOCATION OF THE OCONEE NUCLEAR STATION The Oconee Nuclear Station is located on Lake Keowee at the eastern edge of Oconee County, South Carolina (Figure 1). The Oconee Plant is 25 miles northwest of Anderson South Carolina and 30 miles southwest of Greenville, South Carolina.

STATE AND LOCAL OFF-SITE PREPAREDNESS PLANNING State and local preparedness plans have been developed by tne State of South Carolina and the two counties within the Oconee EPZ (Oconee and Pickens). These plans provide for resources and manpower needed for a successful evacuation of the area, specifically:

e Detailed evacuation plans, addrezing notification, routing, manpower and resource requirements, confirmation of evacuation and transpor-tation of non-vehicle-owning population (schoo!s, households without vehicles, and persons in Institutions)

! e Communication within EPZ, and between the plant, state agencies, the counties and local governments within the EPZ e Local (city and town) mobilization and decisionmaking e Local notification procedures, including siren, public address and telephone notification. procedures for radio and television infor-mation e Detailed traffic control plan e Securing buses for transporting the school population l

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o Securing buses or other vehicles for transporting non-auto-owning population and persons in institutions e Securing ambulances for non-ambulatory population e Reception centers and procedures for clearing evacuated population through them e Shelters for temporary lodging of evacuees e Manpower (traffic control, supervisory, security emergency services) for conducting the evacuation

SUMMARY

OF THE METHOD FOR ESTIMATING EVACUATION TIMES In developing these evacuation time estimates, the population is divided into three segments: (1) permanent resident population; (2) transient population; and (3) spe-cial facility population. For each population segment, a series of discrete action steps is identified, and the completion time for each step determined.

The time for completing each step is then linked together statistically to yield the total evacuation time for that population segment.

The apparent advantage of this method is that travel time is estimated for each individual step of the evacuation sequence (for which data are readily available) rather than for the entire vacuation as a single entity (for which data are non-existent)1 ,

Two cases of evacuation time estimates are made: (1)for a fall / winter weekday under normal weather conditions; and (2) a winter weekday under severe weather conditions. In addition, the special case of a fall / winter Saturday during a football game at Clemson Stadium is examined.

1. NUREG 0654, Appendix 4 3

SUMMARY

OF EVACUATION TIMES Under normal weather and for the critical time period (weekday during school hours), the maximum evacuation time for the Oconee EPZ is 3 hour3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br />s-45 minutes.

Times are measured from the beginning of notification until all the population voluntarily leaving the EPZ has done so. The critical component in the evacuation is the permanert resident population; all other segments of the population can be evacuated prior to 3 hour3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br />s-45 minutes.

Under severe weather conditions (winter storm), the evacuation time for the Oconee EPZ is 5 hour5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br />s-30 minutes, or 147 percer.t of the time required for evacu-ation under normal weather conditions.

Under normal conditions, traffic congestion will occur on 9 of the 13 evacuation routes. At the location of maximum congestion, congestion will occur for 2 hour2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br />s-15 minutes. In the worst case, a vehicle could spend 30 minutes in traffic delays when evacuating by that route.

On 7 of the 9 routes experiencing traffic congestion. the congestion will end before all the permanent resident population has completed preparations to leave home.

On these routes, evacuation time is not determined by traffic congestion but rather by the time needed to prepare for leaving home. .

On 2 of the 13 evacuation rcutes, traffic congestion will continue until after the time that all the permanent resident population has completed preparations to l leave home. On these routes, the maxirnum evacuation time is determined by the traffic congestion.

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V i CHAPTER II. CHARACTERISTICS OF THE OCONEE NUCLEAR STATION VICINITY LAND USE IN THE 10-MILE RADIUS OF THE OCONEE NUCLEAR STATION 1

' The area within the 20-mile radius around the Oconee Nuclear Station is mainly rural, Five small cities-Clemson, Central, Norris, Seneca, and Walhalla-are located around the southern rim of the 10-mile radius of the plant.

The northern part of the EPZ is sparsely populated and contains no towns with a population greater than 500 persons.

i The shoreline of Lake Keowee and Lake Hartwell is lightly developed, except for a few planned residential deve:opments. A number of recreational areas allow public access to the Lakes. [

There are a number of light industrial plants located in the southern part of the 10-mile radius, part!cularly along State Route 28.

HIGHWAY SYSTEM IN THE 10-MILE RADIUS OF THE OCONEE NUCLEAR STATION The highway system in the 10-mile radius of the Oconee Nuclear Station (Figure 2) is typical of an established rural road system. Some important features of this road system are:

e An east-west arterial highway, US 123, crossing the southern part of the 10-mile radius of the Oconee Plant

, o A four-lane divided arter ial highway, US 76, connecting Clemson with I-85 e

A primary highway, SC 183, crossing the center of the area in an east-west direction e

A primary highway, SC 11, which follows the western perimeter of the 10-mile radius I

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E e Two arterial highways-SC 130 and SC 133-which cross the 10-mile area in the north-south direction There are no sections of Interstate or freeway within the 10-mile radius of the Oconee Plant. The only sections of four-lane highway within the 10-mile radius are US 76, US 76/123, and SC 28.

4 OTHER TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES IN THE OCONEE STATION AREA A Southern Railroad main line crosses the southern part of the 10-mile area, in an cast-west direction (Figure 3). There are three sections of branch line within the 10-mile radius of the plant. .

GOVERNMENTAL JURISDICTIONS Two counties-Pickens and Ocoriee-are included in the 10-mile radius of the Oconee Plant (Figure 4). Six ifcorporated areas are at least partly within the 10-mile radius of the plant: Clemson, Central, Norris, Six Mile, Seneca, and Walhalla.

SPECIAL FACILITIES WITHIN THE 10-MILE RADIUS OF THE OCONEE STATION f

A total of 29 schools (public and private) are located in the 10-mile radius of the Oconee Station. Clemson University is also within the 10-mile radius of the Oconee Station. Most of the schools are located on the southern edge of ths 10-mile radius, particularly in the Seneca area. Hospitals in the 10-mile radius are located on US 123 at almost exactly the 10 -mile distance from the plant and on Clemson University (Figure 5).

Four nursing homes are located in the 10-mile radius of the plant (Figure 5).

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1. EPZ Boundary titttttttt- Railroads Airport i

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CHAPTER III. THE EMERGENCY PLANNING ZONE FOR THE OCONEE NUCLEAR STATION GUIDELINES FOR DEFINING THE EMERGENCY PLANNING ZONE (EPZ)

I Federal regulations define the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) as an area of about 10-mile radius from the nuclear power station. Local prepa edness planning con-centrates on protecting the population of the EPZ from direct radiation exposure, in defining the EPZ boundary for any particular site, some general guidelines are observed:I i

e The EPZ should include at least the 10-mile radius of the power station. Exclusion of small, lightly-populated areas at the 10-mile periphery is permitted when this simplifies the boundary definition.

e The EPZ mus_t be easily identifiable. Rather than strictly following the 10-mile radius, the EPZ boundary should follow nearby natural features (shorelines, streams), manmade features (highways, rail-roads), governmental and special district boundaries.

e The EPZ boundary should not split major coherent populatiens which fall at the 10-mile radius (for example, Walhalla). Rather, the EPZ ,

boundary should either include or exclude such concentrations in their entirety.

e The EPZ boundary should be regular and consistent, with supportable reasons for including areas. Evacuation of large areas or population groups well beyond the 10-mile radius should be avoided.

THE EPZ BOUNDARY FOR THE OCONEE NUCLEAR STATION There are few dominant natural or political boundary features that could serve as portions of the EPZ boundary for the Oconee Nuclear Station. Consequently, Pickens and Oconee Counties have identified an EPZ border that is based largely on state and local roads (Figure 6).

1. NUREG 0654, Appendix 4.

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The resulting EPZ boundary includes at least the 10-mile radius from the Oconee Nuclear Power Plant, except for some small areas, totalling 4.6 square miles in Pickens County and 8.1 square miles in Oconee County. All the areas within 10 miles of Oconee Nuclear Station, but excluded from the EPZ, contain negligible population.

Six incorporated areas-Walhalla, Seneca, Clemson, Central, Norris and Six Mile-are included in the Oconee EPZ. No incorporated area is divided by the boundary.

Table I summarizes the local government jurisdictions within the Oconee EPZ.

SELECTIVE EVACUATION ZONES The division of the Oconee EPZ into selective evacuation zones (Figure 7) is based on the planning zones as established by the state of South Carolina and the local (Pickens and Oconee Counties) preparedness agencies. The radial boundaries for these zones are defined by:

e The Pickens-Oconee county line, which follows Lake Keowee and Hartwell Reservoir e Major highways, such as SC 183 and SC 188 The circumferential boundaries for these zones are generally defined by local roads.

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TABLE 1. LOCAL GOVERNMENT UNITS WITHIN 10-MILE RADIUS AND EPZ OF THE OCONEE NUCLEAR POWER STATION Portion of Local Government Unit Within 10-Mile Radius Oconee Nuclear of Plant Station EPZ Counties Pickens Part Part Oconee Part Part Incorporated Places Walhalla Part All Seneca All All Clemson Part All Central All All Norris All All Six Mlle All All i

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CHAPTER IV. POPULATION OF THE OCONEE EPZ POPULATION SEGMENTS Separate evacuation time estimates are made for each of the following three com-ponents of population in the Oconee EPZ:

1. Permanent Resident Population - Those persons living full-time in the Oconee EPZ. Two subgroups of permanent residents are recog-nized:

e Auto-Owning Population - Those permanent residents having an automobile available for their evacuation from the EPZ.

e Non-Auto-Owning Population - Those permanent residents not having an automobl!e available for their evacuation from the Oconee EPZ, and who therefore must be transported by other means.

There are an estimated 55,363 permanent residents in the Oconee EPZ (Table 2).

2. Transient Population - Non-residents of the EPZ temporarily within it, primarily for the purpose of working or recreation. A maximum transient population of 20,241 persons in the EPZ (Table 2) was esti-mated from baie year surveys and forecasts.

3. Special Facility Population - Concentrations of population in institu-tions. This includes schools, university campus, hospitals, nursing homes and day care centers. There is a reported specla! facility population of 22,778 persons in the EPZ on a weekday when schools are in session (Table 2.)

SPECIAL FACILITY POPULATION Table 3 iists the special facilities in the Oconee EPZ, and gives their populations and subarea locations. As indicated in Table 3, the school population accounts for almost all of the special facility population. The other special facilities in the EPZ j are Oconee Memorial Hospital, Redfearn Infirmary at Clemson and four nursing l homes.

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TABLE 2. POPULATION OF THE OCONEE EPZ AND ZONES Permanent Resident Population Special Auto- Non-Auto- Transient Facility Zone Owning Owning Total Population Population Central East 202 10 212 700 Central West 87 8 95 2,495 All Zones, O to 2 miles 289 18 307 3,195 A-1 399 18 417 1,354 B-1 1,626 72 1,698 523 C-1 324 14 338 501 D-1 193 16 209 1,181 E-1 657 32 709 1,133 237 F-1 259 20 279 1,229 All Zeaes, O to 5 miles 3,747 210 3,957 8,593 A-2 1,561 70 1,631 2,189 287 B-2 3,460 154 3,614 C-2 17,838 1,020 18,858 2,487 13,903 D-2 14,354 1,248 15,602 4,064 4,562 E-2 8,185 712 8,897 1,373 2,558 F-2 2,600 204 2,804 1,535 688 Total EPZ 51,745 3,618 55,363 20,241 22,778 i

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TABLE 3. SPECIAL FACILITIES i)OPULATION IN THE OCONEE EPZ Location Schools Population (Zone) Location Schools Population (Zone)

Central Elementary School 434 C-2 Seneca Preschool 250 D-2 Clemson University 11,291 C-2 Six Mile Elementary School 448 B-1 Daniel High School 706 C-2 Tammassee Elementary School 231 F-2 R. C. Edwards Junior High 712 C-2 Tribble Center 45 D-2 Gignillat Middle School 423 D-2 Tribble Center Annex 16 D-2

3. N. Kellet Elementary School Utica Elementary School 227 D-2 358 D-2 Walhalla Elementary School 466 E-2 Keowee Elementary School 257 E-1

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• Walhalla High School 852 E-2 E 1en entary School 287 A-2 Walhalla Middle School 649 E-2 Morrison An-x 100 C-2 Walhalla Preschool 60 E-2 Morrison'de otary School 640 C-2 Northside IWw wry School 362 D-2 Hospitals Oconee CL 4

+"-riemy 80 D-2 Oconee Memorial Hospital 130 D-2 Oconee Yec.:tionas Srbool 250 D-2 Pine Street Elementary School Redfearn Health Infirmary 20 C-2 531 E-2 Ravenel Elementary School 458 D-2 Salem Elementary School 153 P-2 Nursing Homes Salem High School 288 F-2 Lila Doyle Annex 79 D-2

. Seneca Christian Academy 50 D-2 Hall House '

16 F-2 Seneca High School 1,128 D-2 Harvey's Love and Care 40 B-1 Seneca Junior High 706 D-2 Six Mile Retirement Home 35 B-1

l POPULATION DISTRIBUTION The majority of the population in the Oconee EPZ is concentrated along the southern rim of the EPZ. The three zones along this area (Zones C-2, D-2, and E-2) account for ! 3,357 residents, or 78 percent of the total resident population of the EPZ. The most populated zone in the EPZ is C-2, which includes Clemson.

Zone C-2 contains 18,858 residents, or 34 percent of tne total resident population in the EPZ.

Pickens County contains 48 percent of the EPZ resident population (26,768 resi-dents) and Oconee County contains the remaining 52 percent (28,595 residents).

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l . .

l CHAPTER V. THE EVACUATION SEQUENCE FOR THE OCONEE EMERGENCY PLANNING ZONE (EPZ)

Evacuation is intended to remove the population of the Oconee EPZ as rapidly as possible. Evacuees are directed to designated reception centers, where they are screened for radiological exposure. Evacuees are then directed to shelters, where they are lodged temporarily, or they will go to destinations of their own choosing, primarily homes of nearby relatives and friends.

Wherever possible, the evacuating population will leave the EPZ in private auto-mobiles. Persons without automobile transportation will be transported by school buses, arrilaulances, and other available vehicles.

Most motorists will leave the EFZ by the most direct route; that is, the shortest route out of the EPZ. Traffic direction at wme key locations will help balance the traffic volumes on the evacuation routes. Throughout the EPZ, normal traffic flow will be observed, with streets open to all traffic and functioning in their usual manner.

Separate evacuation time estimates are made for the three population groups iden-tified in Chapter IV: (1) permanent residents, (2) transient population, and (3) spe-cial facility population. Each of these groups follows a different procedure in evacuation:

o Permanent Resident Population -- The auto-owning permanent resi-dent population, af ter receiving the broadcast instructions to evacu-ate, assembles by family at home (except for children at school),

prepares for evacuating the home, and drives out of the EPZ.

The non-auto-owning permanent resident population prepares for leaving their homes and will then be transported out of the EPZ in buses or other vehicles.

e _ Transient Population -- The transient population, after receiving instructions to evacuate, will assemble the group (if any) that is traveling together, and will drive out of the EPZ, using their private vehicles.

20

I. .

l l

e Special Facility Population -- The school population (public and pri-vate) is transported by school bus directly from the schools, and is under control of school staff.

Persons in institutions (hospitals, nursing homes, etc.) are prepared for evacuation, then transported out of the EPZ in school buses, ambulances, emergency vehicles, and possibly other vehicles.

TIME PERIODS IN WHICH EVACUATION MIGHT OCCUR The procedure for evacuating the Oconee EPZ will vary, depending on the time of day, day of week, and season of the year in which the evacuation occurs. Figure 8 illustrates the combinations of time, day, and seasons that are considered.

Day or Night Evacuation i

in general, evacuation is likely to be more difficult in the daytime than in the nighttime.

During the day, there is a relatively large chance that families are not assembled at home, but rather are dispersed at work, shopping, on personal business, etc. On school days, the school population is not at home for most of the daytime period.

Also, more transients are in the EPZ during the day.

j in a night evacuation, the notification process would be slowed by people having to wake up and comprehend the evacuation information being broadcast. Also, addi-tional time (relative to the daytime situation) would be required to prepare f vehicles for evacuation in the dark. On the other hand, for most of the population, the families would be intact at the time of notification, since schools are not in session and relatively few employees are on the job.

Weekday or Weekend Evacuation i in general, a weekday evacuation is likely to be more difficult than one on a w eekend.

l

. 21 l

l i.

i l

TIME OF DAY OF TIME OF DAY WEEK YEAR Winter

~'

Weekend Sun'mer Day Time A

Critical Winter Time l Period l Weekday V Summer

, Winter i

Weekend Summer Night time Winter Weekday Summer 1

Figure 8. Time Periods in Which Evacuation Can Occur 22

i On a typical weekday, much of the population is away from home, mainly at work. I During the school year, the school population is also away from home during the day.

On the weekends, on the other hand, a number of people are away from the home for reasons other than work or school. However, the assembly of these people at home on a weekend does not present the same problem as assembling them on a typical work and school day, when a much larger percentage is not at home.

On 5 or 6 Saturdays yearly, a large transient population (up to 68,000 persons). is attending football games at Clemson Stadium, which is inside the Oconee EPZ.

, Winter or Summer Evacuation In general, an evacuation during the fall / winter period is more difficult than an evacuation during the summer season. In the fall and winter periods, schools are in session, and therefore any weekday evacuation would have to involve the evacu-ation of the school population. Also, the number of employees at work is at a maximum during the fall and winter period when employment activity is at a maxi-mum and few workers are on vacation.

In the summer period, evacuation can be complicated by the presence of non-residents around or on Lake Keowee and Lake Hartwell. However, these factors cause less difficulty in evacuation than that caused by the full worker and school population on a fall / winter weekday.

Critical Time Period Adopted for the Oconee Station Evacuation In estimating the evacuation time for the Oconee EPZ, the critical time period

+ hat is, the time period for which evacuation is likely to require the most time

-is the fall and winter weekday period during the daytime (Figure 8). During this period, the time needed to assemble family units is likely to be at a maximum since most employees are at work at this time. Also, the likelihood of being away from home for other reasons (for example, shopping, personal business, etc.) is fairly 23

h!gh during this period. Finally, evacuation during the fall and winter weekday period raises issues of school population evacuation which do not exist in other time periods.

Because of the concentration of population at Clemson Stadium on 6 to 7 days annually, an evacuation during a fall Saturday da'ytime is examined as an alternate critical period.

POPULATION SEGMENTS TO BE EVACUATED Separate evacuation time estimates are made for each of the three population groups identified in Chapter IV:

o Permanen; Residents, who evacuate either in private automobiles (if they are auto-owning population) or are transported out in school buse 5 or other vehicles (if they are non-auto-owning) e Trana tnPopulation, who evacuate primarily i:t private automobiles e Special Facility Population, who are transported out of the EPZ in school buses, other public vehicles and in some cases, in private auto-mobiles Family Units Families (excluding children in school) evacuate as units. On weekdays, family l members return home from their jobs, shopping, etc. On weekends, many families i

are already assembled and can immediately prepare to leave home. Non-resident families (for example, recreational visitors) are already assembled and evacuate with almost no further preparation.

EVACUATION ACTION STEPS 1

l- For each population segment, the evacuation sequence consists of a series of clearly-defined actions, performed in a predictable sequence (see Figure 9).-

l l

l

! . 24 i

)

i 4

f l Permanent Resident P , _ "z' Specid Facility Population l (Aaching) (Non-Auteenning) Transiant Population (Schools) (Institutions)

Receive Receive Receive Receive Receive

} Notifiestion Notification Notification Notification Notification I

/ _

i Leave Place Prepare for Assemble Evacuate School of work Evocuating Horne Mobilize Traveling Population Pbpulation Group in Buses U

Tr Non-Au ing

i E i i

' Population Popuiation ,

l in Buses

. in Bu as or Special Vehicles Prepare for i

Evacuating Home Travel Out of the EPZ Figure 9. Population Segments and Evacuation Sequences P

Subdividing the evacuation process into these discrete steps, improves the accuracy of the estimates of time needed for the entire evacuation. In place of a single estimate of the entire evacuation process, for which data are not available, this process permits the estimation of tin'.e for each individual step, for which data are more readily available, or for which reasonable estimates can be made.

Public Agency and Private Steps Some of the evacuation steps identi' led in Figure 9 are performed by public agen-cies or quasi-public bodies, such as volunteer fire departments. For all population .

groups, the " Receive Notification" action is the responsibility of public agencies.

For those persons evacuated by mearis other than privately-owned vehicles, public agencies have the additional responsibility for the actual transportation out of the EPZ; for example, " Evacuate School Population in Buses", " Evacuate Non-Auto-Owning Population in Buses", etc. For most populations in institutions, the " Mobil-Ize Population" step is also a public agency responsibility.

Those action steps not the responsibility of public agencies are done at the initia-tive of the individuals being evacuated. For the auto-owning population, all steps af ter the Intitial " Receive Notification" are private actions; that is, they are initi-ated by the Individuals being evacuated. Similarly, some steps in the evacuation of non-auto-owning households are private steps.

EVACUATION OF PERMANENT RESIDENT POPULATION (AUTO-OWNINC)

The following sections describe the sequence of evacuation for the resident auto-owning population of the Oconee EPZ during the fall-winter weekday period.

Receive Notification The first activity in the evacuation process is the notification of the public that an emergency exists. This includes the sounding of sirens, followed by broadcast infermation, and some direct notification by NOAA radio alert.

26

t Various other backup measures are used to inform the population which might not be reached by the above means. Mobile sirens and public address units will supple -

ment the siren alerting system. Mobile public address units mounted on boats or 1 aircraft will notify boaters on Lake Keowee and Lake Hartwell.

i.

l This notification alerts the public that an emergency exists, and that they should l tune in to radio and television broadcasts fo- further information. The notifica-t tion, by itself, does not inform the public of the nature of the emergency or of the response that they should make.

4 Information on the nature of the emergency ar.d the instructions on evacuation are given through radio and television broadcasts over cooperating local stations in the Emergency Broadcast System (EBS).

l Leave Place of Work The rate at which area workers will leave their jobs to return home to prepare for evacuation depends on the particular work environment and upon the responsibility I level of the worker. It is to be expect 9d that mcst of the work force will be able to leave their jobs almcst immediately, quite similar to a normal departure from work at the end of the workday. A number of workers, however, will require some l Job "close-down" time in work situations; for example, those that involve chemical .

processes, construction equipment, or cash registers in retail sales e:tablishments.

Supervisory employees, managers and independent business operators will generally require the greatest amount of time to secure their place of work and to assure that all employees and others on the premises have departed.

Work-to-Home Travel Travel of the employees from their place of work to home is identical to the daily work-to-home travel pattern. The mximum length for work trips for people living and working in the EPZ is not likely to exceed 20 miles. An average travel speed of 20 to 30 miles per hour is typical for the work-to-home travel for area workers.

27

This movement of workers, because of the short time over which it occurs, can be expected ta cause some traffic congestion, similar to that occurring during the twice-daily work travel peak. The road system can handle this volume of traffic with essentiaUy the same level of service as during the peak hours on a typical working day.

Prepare for Evacuating Home People can be expected to react differently to any emergency situation, and there is likely to be great differences in the amount of time that resid-nts will spend in preparing to leave their homes. Three factors in particular affect the amount of time needed to prepare for evacuating a household:

(1) Whether or not adults are at home when notice to evacuate is received. If so, preparation time is shortened (compared to house-holds where no adults are at home) since preparation for evacuation can begin before workers arrive home.

(2) Number of children and other dependents at home. These increase the time needed to prepare the household for evacuation.

(3) The amount of property to be secured. Farms are the extreme case and may require up to two hourt to secure. On the other hand, small households can be prepared for evacuation in minutes.

Travel Out of the EPZ After households are secure, residents of auto-owning households will drive out of the EPZ. Most motorists will use the most direct route available.

Public agencies will give routing advice for this travel, by means of preparedness plans prior to the emergency and through information broadcasts during the actual evacuation. Law enforcement officers will also channel flow of traffic at critical locations as defined in local preparedness plans and in response to actual con-ditions.

The auto-owning resident population will drive to reception centers established outside the EPZ, where they will be checked for contamination and reunited with 23

other family members. Evacuees will then either go to a shelter, where they will he lodged temporarily, or to other destinations (homes of friends and relatives) of their own choosing. For Clemson students, the reception area is on campus. After clearing the reception center, students will go directly to a shelter or other desti-nation of their choosing.

During the evacuation, normal traffic operations will prevail. Specifically, roads will continue in two-way operation, traffic signals will continue to function, and so forth. At key locations, :nainly intersections, traffic control will be under direc-tion of law enforceme t officers or other personnel as designated by local evacu-ation plans.

On most roads, traffic will flow freely, although at reduced speeds. However, at certain locations and during certain portions of the evacuation period, traffic con-gestion is expected. The location and extent of this traffic congestion is di: cussed in Chapter Vil of this Report.

EVACUATION OF PERMANENT RESIDENT POPULATION (NON-AUTO-OWNING)

Receive Notification -

The procedure for receiving broadcast information is the same as for auto-owning population (above). This includes the sounding of sirens followed by broadcast I information and supplemented by mobile public address.

Prepare for Evacuating Home l

l This step is the same as for auto-owning population (above). As in the case of auto-owning population, primary factors in the time required for this action are whether or not an adult is at home at the time of notification, the number of dependents to be evacuated, and the extent of property to be secured.

I 29

Evacuate Non-Auto-Owning Population in Buses A significant fraction of the non-auto-owning population (perhaps as much as

.50 percent) will be evacuated as passen.gers in private vehicles driven by family, neighbors or friends. This component of the non-auto-owning population is consid-ered as part of the auto-owning population, and their evacuation procedure follows that of the auto-owning population described above.

Persons from non-auto-owning households who do not evacuate as passengers in

[

private vehicles will be transported out of the EPZ in publicly-owned vehicles dispatched by the County preparedness agencies.

The primary source of vehicles are school buses from the Oconee and Pickens County School systems. Transit buses from Anderson will also be available.

1 EVACUATION OF TRANSIENT POPULATION Receive Notification Most of the transient population, particularly empicyees along Route 28 and recre-ational visitors around Lake Keowee and Lat:e Hartwell, are notified by the siren system. Some boaters on the lakes will be notified by mobile public address systems.

Assemble Traveling Group The traveling group (usually family) is assembled. Preparations for evacuating (for example, closing a cabin, docking a boat) are made.

l Travel Out of the EPZ After assembling their traveling group, the transient population will drive out of the EPZ using their private vehicles.

30

Transient population will be directed to a reception center. After c! earing the reception center, they will return to their homes outside the EPZ.

Public agencies will give routing advice for this travel through information broad-casts during the evacuation. Law enforcement officers wi!! also direct traffic flows ou" of the EPZ.

EVACUATION OF SPECIAL FACILITY POPULATION (SCHOOLS)

Receive Notification Following the decision to evacuate, the Counties notify schools directly of the need for evacuation. This is done through the siren system and telephone calls directly to the schools.

Evacuate School Population in Buses The school population is transported directly by bus from school to reception centers. An entire school will be transported to the same reception center. School l children will not return home prior to evacuation. The picking tp of school

, children at school by their families is discouraged.

l All school buses normally used within the Oconee EPZ will be used for evacuation.

These will be supplemented by buses from outside the EPZ but within the Oconee-Pickens County area.

l EVACUATION OF SPECIAL FACILITY POPULATION (INSTITUTIONS) l Receive Notification 1

l l Fo!!owing the decision to evacuate, the local preparedness agencies will notify institutions directly by telephone calls.

31

r -

i Mobilize Populatig The institutional populatico is instructed to evacuate by the staff of that particular institution. Necewary personal effects are assembled. Essential medical records are gathered.

Evacuate Institutional Population in Buses or Special Vehicles School buses will pick up ambulatory hospital patients, nursing home residents and other. persons not requiring ambulance transportation. These passengers will be transported directly to the alternate relocation facilities. Generally, all residents of a given Institution will be evacuated to the same relocation center.

Non-ambulatory persons will be transported directly from institutions by ambu-lance. These vehicles will be drawn from the fleets normally based within the EPZ, supplemented by ambulances from outside the EPZ, particularly from the Pickens, Easley, Greenville and Anderson areas.

SUMMARY

OF THE EVACUATION PROCESS In order to examine the " worst case" for which evacuation times are at a maxi-mum, the evacuation is assumed to occur during the daytime on a fall or winter weekday.

1 Three population groups, having distinctly different evacuation methods, are recog-nized:

o Permanent Residents who will evacuate in private vehicles (if auto-owning) or who will be transported in transit vehicles (if non-auto-owning) e Transient Population who will evacuate in private vehicles

.i e Special Facility Populathn who are transported out of the EPZ in school buses, public transit buses, other public vehicles and in some cases, private automobiles

\

32

r. . .. .

i For each population group, the evacuation sequence consists of a number of clearly-defined action steps as summarized in Table 4.

1 i

l l

l 9

4 u

2 e

f l -

1 i

.33 1

I'

TABLE 4.

SUMMARY

OF EVACUATION ACTION STEPS Population Segment Action Steps and Description Permanent Resident Population ~1.

(Auto-Owning) RECEIVE NOTIFICATION, including instructions for evacuating i

2. LEAVE PLACE OF WORK IAll members of households, 3. WORK-TO-HOME TRAVEL, similar to normal work trip except school children, having 4. PREPARE FOR EVACUATING HOME (close house, secure property) a private vehicle available for 5. TRAVEL OUT OF THE EPZ in private vehicles, using most direct routes evacuatien)

Permanent Resident Population (Non-Auto-Owning) 1. RECEIVE NOTIFICATION, including instructions for evacuating

2. PREPARE FOR EVACUATING HOME (close house, secure property)

(Persons not having a private

3. EVACUATE NON-AUTO-OWNING POPULATION IN BUSES from vehicle available for evacuation county school systems .

Y Transient Population (Werkers, recreational visitors) 1. RECEIVE NOTIFICATION, including instructions for evacuating

2. ASSEMBLE TRAVELING GROUP

3. TRAVEL OUT OF THE EPZ in private vehicles Special FaclBty Population

1. RECEIVE NOTIFICATION, including instructions for evacuating (Schools) 2. EVACUATE SCHOOL POPULATION IN BUSES Special Facility Population 1. RECEIVE NOTIFICATION, inciuding instructions for evacuating (Institutions) 2. MOBILIZE POPULATION, prepare population for evacuation

3. EVACUATE INSTITUTIONAL POPULATION IN BUSES OR SPECIAL VEHICLES

CHAPTER VI. EVACUATION ROUTES DESIGNATED EVACUATION ROUTES Emergency preparedness officials for Pickens and Oconee Counties and the State of South Carolina have designated a series of evacuation routes out of the 10-m!!e EPZ (Figure 10). This set of evacuation routes meets the criteria for a reasonable basis for evacuation time estimates, specifically:

o The routes use most available roads out of the EPZ, and do not limit evacuation traffic to a few selected roads (as is sometimes done for security or to channel evacuees to reception centers).

e The routes lead as directly as possible out of the EPZ. In almost all instances, the designated evacuation route is the fastest way out of the EPZ for the area served by the particular route.

e The routes do not require special traffic control measures (such as one-way operation on normally two-way roads, barricades, etc.)

In addition to th; evacuation routes established by the county civil defense agen-cies, two supplemental routes are established (Figure 10): Secondary Route 63 in Oconee County and US 123 east in Pickens County. These supplemental routes, while not formally designated as evacuation routes, are likely to receive some evacuation traffic, particularly as congestion builds up on the designated routes.

i CAPACITIES OF THE EVACUATION ROUTES In general, the capacity of an evacuation route is determined by the capacities of its intersections, rather than by the capacity of the road at non-intersection loca-tior.s. For most of the evacuation routes, the capacity is determined at a critical i

intersection, or " bottleneck" location. These are locations where: (1) the evacu-

- ation route has a high traffic volume, and (2) cross-street traffic volume at the intersection is high, reducing the amount of time available for the major evacu-ation flow to enter the intersection.

l I

35 l

l . . _- . -

A EPZ Boundary

- Evacuation Routes SC 11 mm um um Supplemental Evacuation Routes East

, (*)

SC 183 East .

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Nuclear d P 3 r

St  !"

h ation , .,

j SC 183

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Secondary '*

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• SC 11 p South g -

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7

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A Y , N

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Secondary 30 US 123 [

West #

WD

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O""

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. ff if$/ V=

SC e--

Secondary 7 -.

63 59% gg; ,,.:

South

^ Secondary 21 Figure 10. Evacuation Routes for the Oconee Nuclear Station l

l 36

The capacity of an intersection is based on a maximum vehicular flow of 1,500 vehicles per lane hourly, with full as;;gnment of the right-of-way (that is,1,500 vehicles hourly if there is no intersecting traffic).I At the critical intersections which are establishing the capacity on the evacuation routes, the total capacity is adjusted downward to 80 percent of the maximum to allow for intersecting traffic.

The resulting capacity is 1,200 vehicles per lane per hour. .

The capacities of each of the 12 individual evacuation routes are indicated in Table 5.

EVACUATION TRAVELSHEDS The travelshed of a particular evacuation route is the " catchment" area of popula-tion for that route; that is, the area for which that route is the fastest means of exit from the EPZ.

The travelsheds for the evacuation routes in the Oconee EPZ are determined by extending the major evacuation routes, as indentified in Figure 10, so that all of the road system in the EPZ connects to one or another of the evacuation routes.

This process is simple for those sections of roadway immediately adjacent to the l

major evacuation routes, where it is obvious which sections of roadway feed any.

given evacuation route. For sections more distant from the major evacuation routes, the evacuation path is not as clear, and routings are made on the basis of travel time estimates. Some sections of roadway are midway between evacuation routes, and are equally well served by two different routes. These areas define the boundaries between the travelshed areas for the different evacuation routes l (Figure 11).

1. Highway Capacity Manual,1965, Highway Research Board Special Record #87.

l 37

TABLE 5. CAPACITY OF EVACUATION ROUTES Evacuation Number , Outbound Route of Lanes

• Type of Road Capacity 2 SC 183 West 2 Semi-Rural Arterial 1,200 SC 11 South 2 Semi-Rural Arterial 1,200 Secondary 135 2 Rural Secondary 1,200 US 123 West 4 Semi-Rural Arterial 2,400 Secondary 63 2 Rural Secondary 1,200 SC59 2 Rural Arterial 1,200 Secondary 21 2 Rural Secondary 1,200 US 76 Seuth 4 Rural Arterial 2,400 Secondary 30 2 Rural Arterial 1,200 US 123 West 4 Semi-Rural Arterial 2,400 SC 93 2 Semi-Rural Arterial 1,200 SC 183 East 2 Rural Arterial 1,200 SC 11 East 2 Rural Arterial 1,200

1. Total lanes, both directions.

2. Hourly vehicles, outboend only. Obtained from Highway Capacity Manual, 1965, Highway Research Board Special Report Number 87.

3. Semi-rural areas are characterized by light density development along roadside.

l l

l 38

1 . .

• l

--- Boundary at travelshed areas SC 11 East Road network served by evacuation route 1

A 1

l

\

I l f l

I D s'o

% I #

i I SC 183

%g East

___s-

~

$ Oconee #

/ . ,

\

2:i":

L i

%.#I-#

=

f g l SC 93 SC 183 - # #~~~

West SC 11

1. p#

E kS g P South I -

"p US123

1. p/ \\ E East Secondary # i y i est /  %

g% g %g

/

Secondary 63 1

i \i i

g  % Secondary SC 59 y 30 I

US 76 South '

I Secondary 21 Figure 11. Evacuation Networks and Travelsheds for the Oconee Nuclear Station 39

DISTRIBUTION OF TRAFFIC TO THE EVACUATION ROUTES The population of the travelshed area for each evacuation route is determined (Table 6) by apportioning the population units within the EPZI (for example, cities, census enumeration districts) onto the travelshed areas.

The total evacuation traffic generated by this population is then established (Table 6).

RELATIONSHIP OF EVACUATION TRAFFIC VOLUMES AND ROUTE CAPACITIES Table 6 summarizes, for each of the 12 individual evacuation routes, the traffic capacity of the route and the volume of evacuation traffic assigned to that route.

The resulting hours of traffic flow are then calculated. This measure does not represent the total evacuation time; for example, it does not include the time needed for notification or for preparing to leave home. Rathe., the " Hours of Traffic Flow" statistic is an indication of the level of traffic congestion that can be anticipated on the route.

i l

l l

1. Based on 1931 Census Advance Report and on housecount (by Duke Power Company) within 5 miles of Oconee Station.

40

io . . .

TABLE 6. TRAFFIC VOLUMES AND CAPACITIES FOR EVACUATION ROUTES Population Vehicles Hourly Hours of Evacuation Assigned g AssigM 2 Vehicle Traffic 3 Route to Route to Route _ Capacity Flow SC 183 West 5.175 2,240 1,200 1.9 SC 11 South 6,221 2,693 1,200 2.2 Secondary 135 1,432 620 1,200 0.5 US 123 West 2,505 1,034 2,400 0.5 Secondary 63 2,340 1,013 1,200 0.8 SC59 7,021 3,039 1,200 2.5 Secondary 21 3,901 1,689 1,200 1.4 US 76 South 9,357 4,267 2,400 1.8 Secondary 30 2,829 1,225 1,200 1.0 US 123 East 5,657 2,449 2,400 1.0 SC 93 4,513 1,954 1,200 1.6 SC 183 East 2,565 1,110 1,200 0.9 SC 11 East 1,267 548 1,200 0.5 Totals 55,363

1. Based on apportionment of population (Chapter IV) to the evacuation travelshed areas (Figure 12).

2. Based on vehicle ownership data from 1970 Census (Appendix B).

3. Assumes continuous flow of all traffic assigned to that route.

41

C , .

• CHAPTER Vll.

SUMMARY

OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES CONDITIONS AND TIME PERIODS Evacuation time estimates are made for three conditions:

1. Fall / Winter Day, with normal weather conditions. This condition, as explained in Chapter V, represents the " critical" time period for which evacuation times are likely to be at their maximum. The max-imum transient population is assumed to be in the EPZ at this time.

2. Fall / Winter Day, with severe weather conditions (defined as a winter storm, with icy road conditions). This case represents the " critical" time period (as explained in Chapter V) under unfavorable weather conditions which further extend the required evacuation times.

3. Fall / Winter Saturday, during a football game at Clemson University.

This case warrants special attention because of the concentration of transient population (up to 68,000 persons) temporarily within the Oconee EPZ.

Detailed evacuation times are first calculated for the " Fall / Winter Day" (normal weather) conditions, then adjusted to yield the " Fail / Winter" Day (severe weather) and Fall / Winter Saturday" conditions. A separate analysis is made for the third case, with a concentration of population at Clemson Stadium.

METHOD FOR ESTIMATING EVACUATION TIME l

1 Population Segments l

! Evacuation time is estimated separately for each of the three population groups discussed earlier: (1) Permanent Resident Population; (2) Transient Population; and (3) Special Facility Population.

These evacuation time estimates assume that effective local preparedness plans are in operation, and that virtually complete coverage of the EPZ population with a prompt alerting and notification system is achieved. This notification time reflects the siren coverage expected with the system already installed.

42

b . -. .

Action Steps Each population segment follows a specific sequence of action steps in evacuating the EPZ. (See Chapter V for a detailed discussion of these steps.) The time needed to comp!cte each of these steps is stated as th' distribution relating the fraction of the population completing a particular step to the elapsed time after that action step is first started.

Time Required for a Series of Action Steps The total evacuation time is calculated by linking together the time required to complete the individual steps. The resulting total time for evacuation is calculated (as are the times for the individual steps) as a distribution of time, showing the fraction of the population which completes the total evacuation process within a given amount of elapsed time. The EVACURVE program (Appendix C) is used to compute these elapsed times.

Distribution of the Traffic to the Evacuation Routes The evacuation traffic is distributed to the available roads out of the EPZ (Chapter VI). Delays due to traffic congestion are calculated, and the evacuation times are adjusted to reflect these delays.

EVACUATION TIME FOR THE PERMANENT RESIDENT POPULATION (AUTO-OWNING), FALL / WINTER WEEKDAY, NORMAL WEATHER CONDITIONS The evacuation sequence for the permanent resident auto-owning population includes five steps: (1) Receive Notification; (2) Leave' Place of Work; (3) Work-to-Home Travel; (4) Prepare for Evacuating Home; and (5) Drive Out of the EPZ. The time required to complete each of these steps is established. Then, a total evacu-ation time for the auto-owning population is obtained by combining the time required for each of the five action steps.

43

l Receive Notification Some of the auto-owning permanent resident population receives the broadcast information almost immediately; for example,10 percent of this population is assumed to receive broadcast information in 15 minutes (Table 7). These are indi-viduals who immediately comprehend the notification and promptly tune into the EBS broadcasts. This group also includes individuals already listening to radio and television broadcasts, and are therefore informed immediately of the emergency and the need to evacuate the EPZ.

TABt.E

7. TIME DISTRIBUTION FOR RECEIVE NOTIFICATION" STEP Estiraated Time After Start of Percentage of Population Notification Receiving Notification 15 minutes 10 20 minutes 10 25 minutes 30 30 minutes 30 35 minutes 10 40 minutes 5 45 minutes  !

A large fraction of the population of the EPZ is estimated to receive the broadcast information between 20 and 30 minutes after the start of notification. These indi-viduals require several minutes to comprehend the notification, and tt.cn several more minutes to tune into the EBS broadcasts.

l At the high end of the range, some of the population (10 percent of the total) are asrumed to require over 35 minutes to receive the broadcast information. These are mainly persons not reached immediately by the notification system, not under-standing the significance of the siren warning, or without access to a radio or.

i

. . ~ . . . ._

televisien set. This element of the population is notified, in general, by supple-mentary methods, such as mobile cublic address, etc.

It 1: estimated that all of the pcpulation receives the broadcast information within

~

45 minutes of the start of ~noJification.

@e Flace of Work It is estimated that a sizeable p:vtion of the permanent resident auto-owning popu-lation can leave. work within 10 minutes after receiving the broadcast information, or af ter this information is conveyed to them by their employer (Table 8). In 3eneral, these are workers not having managerial responsibility or whose jobs do not require shutdown time.

TABLE 8. TIME DISTRIBUTION FOR

" LEAVE PLACE OF WORK" STEP 1

Estimated Time After Receipt Percentage of Workers

_ of Notification Leavir.g Place of Work 10 minutes 50 15 minutes ,

30 20 minutes 10 30 minutes 5 45 minutes '

5

~

Another large group of workers (an estimated 40 percer.t of the total) will need between 10 and 20 minutes to leave their place of work. These are employees whose Jobs require some shutdown time, and managers wno remain until other employees have left. ,

At the high end of the range, an estimated 5 percent of the workers require over 30 mir.utes to prepare for leaving work. These individuals are mainly managers, 45 t 4 m e a- W v'

k . . ,

e persons responsible for securing cash or property, and persons needed to shut down industrial processes.

All employees complete preparation to leave their place of work within 45 minutes of receiving the broadcast information (Table 8).

Work-to-Home Travel The time needed for this step is similar to that needed for the daily trip home during the af ternoon peak hour. This time depends primarily on the distance from work to home. This distribution of estimated travel-to-home time is for only those workers having their residence and place of work in the EPZ. At the low end of the range, an estimated 50 percent of the workers can complete the trip home within 5 minutes (Table 9). Another large group of workers live within 5 miles of their job, and can return home in 10 to 15 minutes. At the upper end of the range, an estimated 20 percent of all employees will need more than 15 minutes for their travel home.

TABLE 9. TIME DISTRIBUTION FOR

" WORK-TO-HOME TRAVEL" STEP Estimated Time After Workers Begin Percentage of Workers to Leave Place of Work Arriving at Home 5 minutes 50 10 minutes 30 15 minutes 10 20 minutes 10 Some employees working outside the EPZ, particularly at locations near the EPZ boundary, will return home before the EPZ is closed to entering traffic and will evacuate in the same manner as auto-owning households. However, employees who work at some distance outside the EPZ will not be able to enter the EPZ since all 46

I roads will be barricaded to incoming traffic as soon as possible after the start of the evacuation.

Prepare for Evacuating Home The time needed to prepare for evacuating the home depends on three factors (1) whether or not an adult member of the household is home at the time of notifi-cation; (2) the number of dependents in the household; and (3) the amount of house-hold property to be secured prior to evacuation.

At the low end of the range, an estimated 15 percent of all of the auto owning population can prepare for evacuating their households within 20 minutes af ter the '

arrival of the ' workers from their jobs (Table 10). These are generally households with an adult member present at home, with few dependents, and no property to be secured.

TABLE 10. TIME DISTRIBUTION FOR

" PREPARE FOR EVACUATING HOME" STEP Estimated Percentage Time After Workers of Auto-Owning Arrive Home Population Leaving Home_

15 minutes 10 20 minutes 5 25 minutes 10 30 m!nutes 15 35 minutes 15 40 minutes 25 50 minutes 10 60 minutes 5 95 minutes 5 An estimated 80 percent of the auto-owning population can prepare to leave home within 40 minutes of the arrival at home of the household workers. These are 47 I

likely to be households with dependents at home and a typical single-family resi-dence to secure.

At the upper end of the range, an estimated 10 percent of the population requires over 40 minutes to prepare for evacuating their homes. Generally, these are households with more than one dependent and exten'sive. household property to be secured (for example, a farm).

Final Departure Curve Figure 12 illustrates the distribution of time needed by the EPZ population to complete each of the evacuation steps. The final departure curve (that is, the time needed to complete all action steps except the final driving from the EPZ) is completed at 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> 10 minutes af ter the start of notification.

Drive Out of the EPZ The time needed for the final step " Drive out of the EPZ"-depends on the level of traffic congestion encountered on the specific evacuation route taken. On routes with no traffic congestion, a maximum of 15 minutes is needed to drive out of the EPZ, and for such routes the total evacuation time is 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> and 23 minutes (3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> and 10 minutes as noted in Figure 12 plus 15 minutes driving time). On some routes with traffic congestion, driving times wil; be determined by traffic delays, as discussed below.

Routing -- Most motorists will drive out of the EPZ on the designated evacuation routes as identified in Chapter VI of this report. Some motorists will drive out on roads not designated as evacuation routes.

Public agencies will give routing advice for this travel, by means of preparedness plans prior to the emergency and through information broadcasts during the actual evacuation.

48

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Traffic Control - At critical locations-primarily key intersections within the EPZ-traffic will be controlled by State and local law enforcement agencies, as established in local preparedness plans. This traffic control will accomplish two purposes: (1) ensure orderly traffic flow at that particular location; and (2) direct motorists to the best available route out of the EPZ.  !

I During the evacuation, normal traffic control will continue, two-way streets will I

operate in their usual manner as two-way streets, and traffic control devices, such as signals, will continue to function. The only exception will be the replacing of I

' traffic signal control at some key intersections with traffic direction by law en-forcement officers.

i t

Method For Analyzing Evacuation Traffic Flows - The evacuation traffic flow is analyzed with a computer program package consisting of two modules:

1.

I EVACURVE, which calculates the final departure curves (Figure 12) giving the distribution of times at which the auto-owning population completes preparations to leave home and enters the road system.

The EVACURVE module calculates the departure curve from the series of time distributions for completing each step of ttw evacu-ation sequence. Statistically, er.ch time distribution for an individual step is a conditional probability distribution; the final departure curve is obtained by computing the joint probability distribution of all i

the steps.

2. The QUEUE module, which simulates the flow of traffic through the evacuation routes, and identifies the location and extent of traffic congestion.

Inputs to the QUEUE module are the evacuation network and the distribution of traffic onto this network. The program then calcu-lates the arrival and departure of traffic at all locations throughout the evacuation network. This simulation is iterative, being repeated for 15-minute intervals of the evacuation period.

.i The QUEUE module identifies locations at which traffic congestion occurs, and calculates the extent of such congestion. Measures which are computed include the time period over which congestion occurs at a particular location, the maximum delay experienced by a vehicle l

passing through any congested location and the extent (distance) of congestion on the evacuation road network.

50

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Traffic Congestion - The QUEUE program shows that on 4 of the 13 evacuation routes, the road capacities exceed the rate at which vehicles leave households. On these routes, there is no congestion at any point in the evacuation process, and the -

time needed to drive out of the EPZ is determined solely by the free-flow travel i time.

On 9 of the 13 designated evacuation routes, traffic backups (queues) will form during some part of the evacuation process. These are caused as the auto-owning population completes the nxessary preparations to leave their homes and enters  !

the street system at a rate greater than the capacity of that street system to carry them. As- a consequence, traffic begins to back up, starting at critical inter-sections where:

1.

Substantial volumes of evacuating traffic converge onto,the evacu-ation route, or

2. The capacity of the evacuation route is restricted by a bridge, ramp, ,

pavement width, etc., or

3. Cross-street traffic is substantial, reducing the amount of time avejl-able for the movement of evacuating traffic at that point Traffic congestion first appears as the volume of traffic entering the street system begins to increase sharply, at about I hour-40 minutes after the start of notifi-cation. Once started, congestion spreads rapidly in the upstream direction, block-

, ing traffic attempting to enter the evacuation route from side roads. In the worst case, congestion spreads generally throughout an area, with all arterial and col-lector streets, and even some local streets, blocked.

, During the period in which this congestion is occurring, the rate of evacuation is I

fixed by the capacity of the street system, and is no Icnger determined by the rate

., at which the population finishes preparations to leave their households. Motorists leaving their homes and entering the street system during such a period are simply

" stored"in traffic queues in the street system.

Possible Levels of Traffic Congestion - Three possible conditions of traffic con-gestion are analyzed in Figure 13. In the instance with no traffic congestion (Type i

51

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l "A"in Figure 13), the departure from the EPZ depends solely on the rate at which people prepare to leave their households ar.d drive, in a free-flow manner, cut of the EPZ. At no point in the evacuation period does traffic cor.gestion slow this progress out of the EPZ. Four routes out of the Oconee EPZ have this pattern of traffic flows.

On routes where traffic congestion occurs (Types "B" aad "C" in Figure 13), traffic congestion appears when the rate of vehicles entering the street exceeds the capa-bility of the street to carry them. Congestion continues to build as lor.g as the rate of vehicles entering the street system continues to exceed the vehicular capacity of the evacuation route.

At some point in the evacuation process, the rate at which vehicles enter the street system reaches a maximum and begins to decrease.

Congestion begins to diminish r.s the rate of vehicles entering the street system begins to fall below the capacity of the evacuation route to carry them. This decrease in traffic congestion continues until the queues disappear, and free traffic flow is restored on the evacuation route.

In the few severe instances of congestion (Type "B" in Figure 13), this occurs before the population has finished preparations to leave horne. From the point at which congestion ends until the completion of evacuation, the rate of evacuation is once again determined by the rate at which households complete their preparation to leave home and anter the street system. Seven routes out of the Oconee EPZ have this traffic pattern.

In the more severe instances of congestion (Type "C in Figure 13), the traffic backups continue even af ter all the population has completed preparations to leave home. In this type of congestion, the backups are too large to be discharged before all population has completed preparations to leave home. In this case, evacuation times are no longer dictated by the time at which preparations for leaving home plus a free-flow driving time, but rather .by the traffic capacity of the evacuation route. Two routes out of the Oconee EPZ have this traffic pattern.

33

Location of Traffic Congestion - Figure 14 illustrates the location of traffic con-gestion in the Oconee EPZ, and indicates the extent of the anticipated congestion when it is at a maximum. As indicated in Figure 14, the greatest traffic conges-tion occurs on SC 59 southbound from the Seneca area.

Summary of Evacuation Times for the Permanent Resident Population (Auto-Owning Of the total of 13 evacuation routes in the Oconee EPZ,11 have a total evacuation time of 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> and 25 minutes (Figure 14). This evacuation time occurs on routes where there is either no traffic congestion at all, or where there is some traffic congestion which ends before all the resident population completes preparations to leave home.

On the remaining routes (SC 59 and SC 11 south), the evacuation time reflects a level of congestion that is not dissipated by the time that the population has com-pleted preparations to leave home. On those routes, congestion continues after the population has completed preparations to leave home, and this congestion then determines the total evacuation times. Evacuation time for SC 59 is 3 hour3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br />s-i 45 minutes, and time for SC 11 south is 3 hour3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br />s-30 minutes.

j EVACUATION TIME FOR THE PERMANENT RESIDENT POPULATION (NON-AUTO-OWNING) 1

) The evacuation of the non-auto-owning population includes three steps: (1) Re-l ceive Notification; (2) Prepare for Evacuating Home; and (3) Evacuate Non-Auto-l Owning Population in Buses. The time required to complete each of these steps is established, and the total time for the evacuation of the non-auto-owning popula-tion is obtained by combining the time required for each of the four steps.

Receive Notificatlon_

Notification times and the explanation for these times are the same as for the l permanent resident auto-owning population discussed above. All of the non-auto-owning population is notified within 45 minutes of the start of notification.

54

1 h 15 to30 Minute Delay More than 30 Minute Delay 3:25 x:xx Maximum Evacuation Time On Route L '

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Prepare for Evacuating Home The time needed to prepare for evacuating the home depends on: (1) whether or not an adult member of the household is home at the time of notification; (2) the number of dependents lis the household; and (3) the amount of household property to be secured before the family can evacuate.

It is estimated that 20 percent of the non-auto-owning population can prepare to leave home within 20 minut's e of receiving notification to evacuate (Table 11).

Typically, these are small households with few dependents and no property to secure before leaving.

At the typer end of the range, it is estimated that 50 percent of the non-auto-owning population needs 30-45 minutes to prepare for leaving home. These are generally households with a dependent at home and a residence to secure before leaving.

TABLE 11. TIME DISTRIBUTION FOR

" PREPARE FOR EVACUATING HOME" STEP FOR NON-AUTO-OWNING POPULATION Time Af ter Estimated Percentage Receiving of Population Completing Notification. Preparatfor's to Leave Home 15 minutes 10 20 minutes 10 25 minutes 10 30 minutes 20 35 minutes 20 40 minutes 20 45 min aes 10 e

56

o .

Evacuate Non-Auto-Owning Popu;ation in Buses A bus fleet large enough to carry the non-auto-owning population in two round trips out of the EPZ is assumed in estimating the evacuation time. Local plans call for this fleet to be drawn from school buses from Oconee and Pickens Counties, other nearby counties, and from the public transit system in Anderson.

It is estimated that one-half of the non-auto-owning population can be evacuated by 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> and 5 minutes after the start of notification (Table 12). The remainder of the non-auto-owning population is estimated to be evacuated by 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> after the start of evacuation.

TABLE 12. TIME DISTRIBUTION FOR

" EVACUATE NON-AUTO-OWNING POPULATION IN BUSES" STEP Estimated Percent of Time After Start of Non-Auto-Owning Population Notification Evacuated in Buses I hour,45 minutes 25 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br />,5 minutes 25 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br />,25 minutes 25 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> 25 l

Summary of Evacuation Times for the Permanent Resident Population (Non-Auto-Owning) l The time required for completion of the various steps in the evacuation of the non-auto-owning population is summarized in Figure 15. The determining factor in the time needed for the evacuation of the non-auto-owning population is the time needed for this populatien to complete preparations for leaving home and to assemble at the collection points.

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i EVACUATION TIME FOR THE TRANSIENT POPULATION The evacuation sequence for the transient population includes three steps:

(1) Receive Notification, (2) Assemble Traveling Group, and (3) Drive Out of the EPZ. The time required to complete each of these steps is established. Then, a total evacuation time for the transient population is obtained by combining the time required for each of the three ac11on steps.

Receive Notification Notification times and the explanation for these times are the same as for the permanent resident auto-owning population discussed previously. All of the tran-sient population is assumed to be notified within 45 minutes of the start of notifi-cation, Assemble Traveling Group The traveling group (usually family or coworkers) is assembled and prepared for evacuation. It is assumed that some groups (for example, employees at work) can  ;

essemble and prepare for evacuation almost immediately. This is reflected in the I distribution in Table 13, which estimates that 30 percent of the transient popula-tion can assemble their traveling group and prepare to ciepart within 15 minutes after receiving instructions to evacuate.

' TABLE 13. TIME DISTRIBUTION FOR

" ASSEMBLE TRAVELING GROUP" STEP FOR TRANSIENT POPULATION Time After Estimated Percentage of Receiving Population Assembling Notification, Traveling Group 10 20 15 30 20 30 30 20 55'

o .

At the other end of the distribution, some transient groups will require up to an estimated 30 minutes to assemble their groups and prepare to evacuate. Examples of this situation are residents at seasonal homes on Lake Keowee or Hartwell Reservoir who would have to complete certain preparaticas, such as securing boat.<

and cabins, before evacuating the area.

Drive Out of the EPZ After assembling their traveling group and completing preparations to evaeus.te, the translent population will drive out of the EPZ using their private vehicles.

In evacuating the EPZ, the transient population will encounter free-flow traffic conditions (i.e., no congestion) throughout their trip out of the EPZ. This is a result of the small size of the transient population and the early stage at which they begin to evacuate. All transient population is evacuated from the EPZ before the major part of the traffic buildup from the permanent resident population begins to ocur.

Summary of Evacuation Times for the Transient Population It is estimated that some of the transient population in the EPZ evacuates within 45 minutes of the start of notification (Figure 16). The transient population is l

. estimated to complete their trips out of the EPZ at I hour and 45 minutes after the start of notification.

1 EVACUATION TIME FOR THE SPECIAL FACILITY POPljLATION (SCHOOLS)

The evacuation sequence for the school population includes two steps: (1) Receive Notification and (2) Evacuate School Population in Buses.

Receive Notification School administrations will be notified imrnediately through telephone calls. Stu-I dent bodies will then be notified almost instantaneously through school public 60 i

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address systems. After notification, preparation to leave the school premises is almost immediate (similar to a routine fire drill).

The maiority of the school population is assumed to be notified within 15 minutes of the start of notification (Table 14). All school population is assumed to be notified within 25 minutes of the start of notification.

TABLE 14. TIME DISTRIBUTION FOR

" RECEIVE NOTIFICATION" STEP FOR SCHOOL POPULATION Estimated Percentage Time Af ter Start of Population of Notification Receiving Notification 10 minutes 10 15 minutes 40 20 minutes 20 25 minutes 10 Evacuate School Population in Buses The determining factor in the time needed for evacuation of the school population in buses is the time required for mobilizing the bus fleet and bringing buses to the

! schools.

A bus fleet sufficiently large to carry the entire school population is assumed in estimating the evacuation time. This fleet will be drawn from Oconee and Pickens Counties, and from other nearby counties if necessary.

l As indicated in Table 15, an estimated 20 percent of the school population can be transported out of the EPZ within I hour after the start of notification. These students are transported in vehicles in regular use in the school districts in the EPZ and which can be readily mobilized. Another 60 percent of the school population is 62 i

k . .

J assumed to be transported out of the EPZ by 1 hour1.157407e-5 days <br />2.777778e-4 hours <br />1.653439e-6 weeks <br />3.805e-7 months <br /> and 30 minutes after the start of notification.

TABLE 15. TIME DISTRIBUTION FOR

" EVACUATE SCHOOL POPULATION IN BUSES" STEP ,

Estimated Percentage Time After Start of of School Population Notification Evacuated by Bus 60 minutes 20 1 hour1.157407e-5 days <br />2.777778e-4 hours <br />1.653439e-6 weeks <br />3.805e-7 months <br />,15 minutes 35 1 hour1.157407e-5 days <br />2.777778e-4 hours <br />1.653439e-6 weeks <br />3.805e-7 months <br />,30 minutes 25 1 hour1.157407e-5 days <br />2.777778e-4 hours <br />1.653439e-6 weeks <br />3.805e-7 months <br />,45 minutes 20 The students evacuated in these later stages are those riding in buses which are brought from outside the EPZ.

All students are evacuated from the EPZ within I hours and 45 minutes after start of notification.

The distribution of the evacuation time for the school population is given in Figure 17.

i l

i EVACUATION TIME FOR THE SPECIAL FACILITY POPULATION (INSTITUTIONS) l The evacuation of the population in institutions involves three steps: (1, Receive Notification: (2) Mobilize Population; and (3) Evacuate Institutional Population in i

Buses or Special Vehicles. The time needed to complete each of these steps is established, and the total time for the evacuation of the population in institutions is obtained by combining the time required for each of the three steps.

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Receive Notification Notification time is the same as for the auto-owning population discussed above.

All of the population in institutions is assumed to be notified within 45 minutes after the start of notification.

Mobilize Population For a significant part of the population in institutions, mobilization can be acco;.i-plished almost immediately after notification of the need to evacuate. For example, it is estimated that 70 percent of the population in institutions can be mobilized to evacuate within 20 minutes af ter the start of notification (Table 16).

This element of the population is typically ambulatory patients in hospitals and nursing homes.

TABLE 16. TIME DISTRIBUTION FOR

" MOBILIZE POPULATION" STEP FOR POPULATION IN INSTITUTIONS Estimated Percentage Time After Receipt of Population in of Notification Institutions Mobilizg 10 minutes 30 20 minutes 40 30 minutes 30 At the upper end of the range, it is estimated that 30 percent of the population in institutions requires up to 30 minutes for mobilization (Table 17). Typically, these are nan 3 ambulatory patients in hospitals, or other persons (such as prisoners in jails) for whom special treatment is necessary.

65

Evacuate Institutional Population in Buses or Special Vehicles A fleet of buses and special vehicles (ambulances, rescue vehicles, vans, etc.) large enough to carry out the institutionalized population of the EPZ in a single round trip (buses) and two round trips (specialized vehicles) is assumed in estimating the evacuation times. The fleet of special vehicles will be drawn from ambulance oper& tors in the EPZ and in the Anderson and Greenville/Spartanburg urban areas.

It is estima..td that 50 percent of the ambulatory population can be evacuated by I hour and 35 minutes after the start of notification (Table 17). The remainder of the ambulatory population is evacuated by 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> af ter the start of notification.

It is estimated that 50 percent of the non-ambulatory population can be evacuated .

by ambulance and spec!r.1 vehicle by I hour and 50 minutes after the start of notification. The remainder of the non-ambulatory population can be evacuated by 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> and 45 minutes TABLE 17. TIME DISTRIBUTION FOR " EVACUATE INSTITUTIONAL POPULATIOtiIN BUSES AND SPECIAL VEHICLES" STEP Estimated Percent of Population in Institutions Evacuated Time After Start of Notification in Buses and Special Vehicles By Bus (Ambulatory Persons)

I hour,35 minutes 50 l

l 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> 100 By Special Vehicle (Non-Ambulatory Persons)

I hour,30 minutes 50 l 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br />,45 minutes 100 The estimated time required for the completion of the individual steps In the evac-uation of the institutional population is summarized in Figure 18. The determining 66 l

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factor in the time needed to evacuate the institutional popu!ation group is the time needed to complete two round trips out of the EPZ by the special vehicle fleet, mainly ambulances.

A special vehicle (bus and ambulance) fleet large enough to evacuate the popu-lation in institutions in one and two trips, respectively, is critical to achieve the total evacuation time of 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> and 45 minutes for this population segment. If a sufficiently large bus and ambulance fleet could not be mobilized and additional i

trips out of the EPZ were needed (even by only a few of the vehicles), the total

' evacuation time for the population in institutions would increase by approximately one hour, to 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> and 45 minutes af ter the start of notification.

SUMMARY

OF EVACUATION TIMES FOR NORMAL CONDITIONS i

Table 13 summarizes the evacuation times for normal conditions. As indicate this table the evacuation times vary according to the population segments con-sidered. The maximum evacuation time for the entire EPZ, established by the time i

needed for the " Permanent Resident (auto-owning)* segment of the population, is 3 hour3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br />s-43 minutes.

EVACUATION TIMES FOR A FALL / WINTER SATURDAY, DURING A FOOTBALL GAME AT CLEMSON STADIUM Football games at the Clemson University Stadium attract up to 68,000 spectators.

This concentration of population at a single point within the Oconee EPZ creates a different evacuation pattern than that occurring on the normal (non-game) fall or winter Saturday, and suggests that the fall / winter Saturday, during a football game at Clemson, might be critical period for evacuation times (i.e., the period for which evacuation times are greatest).

However, the evacuation times for football game :pectators is less than that required by the permanent residents of the EPZ during the same time period (that is, fall / winter Saturday). Evacuation during a football game, while creating certain areas of traffic congestion, is not the critical case; i.e., is not the time period having the longest evacuation times.

68

TABLE 18.

SUMMARY

OF EVACUATION TIMES I

, \

E 3

I 4 4 i &

!  !  ! }t a Jl h a il il )) il 2 i r 1 1 3

s aj 9 s] 4]I

~

j l

& 4 No 5 5

} }~ }~ }NI i }h}~hl! }} }i li } li li Zws y thin 7wo Miles Central East 212 92 700 1,200 230 (1) U) (3) (3) (4) (4) 32 3:23 1:40 (2) (3) Conval West 93 48 2.493 891 2,400 (1) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4) 3:23 3:23 1:40 (3) (3) A!!2 anes 301 133 3,193 1,141 (1) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4) 3t23 3's25 I:40 Zones W *%In Five Mites A.I 4tT 180 1,334 48 4 2,400 (!) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4) 3:23 3:23 3:40 (3) 81 (3) 1,698 734 - - 3.600 (1) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4) 3:23 3:23 1:40 2:43 4:13 C-1 338 146 Sol 179 1,200 (1) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4) 3:23 3:23 h40 (3) D.I (3) 20 9 90 1,181 422 3,600 (!) (2) (3) (3) (4s (4) 3:23 3:23 1:40 (3) E1 (3)

                                   *09        306     1,833        403    2,400     (1) (2)        (3) (3) (4) (4)               3:23     3:23       1:40     1:43   2:30

( F.1 279 121 1,229 439 1,200 (1) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4) 3:23 3:23 1:40 (3) (3) All2enes 3,937 1,710 8,393 3,070 ____ (1) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4) 3:23 3:23 1:40 Zanes T tein Ten M1es A2 1,631 703 2,189 182 2,400 (1) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4) 3:23 3:23 1:40 82 1:43 L50 3,684 1,368 . 2,400 (1) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4) 3:23 4:00 l C2 1:40 (3) (3) 18,834 8,147 l 2.487 888 6,000 (!) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4) 3:23 4:13 1:40 2:43 4:13 O2 13,602 6,740 4,064 1,438 6,000 (1) (U (3) (3) (4) (4) 3:43 3:30 Isto 2:43 4:13 F.. ? 8,897 3,844 1,373 490 3,600 (!) (2) (*) (3) (4) (4) 3:30 3:00 lat0 1:43 2:30 F.2 2,804 1,288 1,333 348 2,400 (1) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4) 3:23 3:23 1:40 2:43 4:13 AliZanes 33,363 23;918 20,248 1,229 (1) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4) 3:43 3:30 1:40 l

1. See distribution in Table 7.

2. See distributions in Tabbs 8 and 9.

3. See dstribut.ons in Tables 10 and li.

4. See distribution in Table 13.

3. No special facilities in these zones.

69

r Spectators in Clemson Stadium can be notified almost immediately, through the stadium public address system, of the need to evacuate. Since traveling groups are already assembled and there are no preparations for evacuation, the spectators would leave the stadium and begin to drive out of the EPZ within 10 minutes of the notification. The stadium population would use the same evacuation routes as the EPZ popula-tion (Figure 11). The maximum attendance (68,000 persons) could be evacuated within 2 hours 30 minutes of the start of notification. l In a stadium evacuation, the maximum number of vehicles delayed in traffic con-gestion (that is, maximum queue length) will be greater than for the typical fail / winter weekday. This is due to the rapid rate at which the stadium traffic prepares to leave, and enters the road system. Desphe this greater level of peak conges-tion, however, the time needed to evacuate the stadium traffic is less than that required for the typical fall / winter weekday. EVACUATION TIMES FOR FALL / WINTER WEEKDAY (SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS) Severe weather conditions fcr the Oconee Nuclear Power Station EPZ are defined as a severe winter storm, with accumulations of snow or ice on the resdways within the EPZ. Severe weather conditions affect the evacuation process by reducing road capaci-ties, due to slower vehicle speeds and a reduction in vehicular capacity at inter-sections. Typically, under adverse winter weather conditions, an intersection func-tions at only 60 percent of its normal capacity.I I Due to increase in headway between vehicles.

                                                                                         ~

70

Reflecting this reduction in capacity in the EPZ road systern results in the adverse condition time estimates as indicated in Table 18. As indicated in this table, the time for the evacuation of the entire EPZ becomes 5 hours and 30 minutes under adverse conditions.

SUMMARY

OF TIMES FOR SELECTIVE EVACUATIONS Table 18 shows the times needed for the selective evacuation of the zones within the EP2. In the evacuat!on of most of the zones, traffic congestion is not a factor, and the evacuation time depends only on the rate at which the resident population prepares to leave home. Thus, for most of the zones, the selective evacuation time is 3 hours and 25 minutes under normal cenditions. For some of the zones, the evacuation time is determined by the extent of the traffic congestion present. The maximum evacuation time under normal conditions for any zone is 3 hours and 45 minutes, for the "D-2" zone. This zone extends in a southwesterly direction te the 10-mile radius of the plant, and includes the Seneca area. 71

Vill. CONFIRMATION OF EVACUATION CONFIRMATION PROCESS

       " Confirmation" measures the fraction of population who evacuate. Confirmation is conducted by the local preparedness agencies, beginning at about the time at which evacuation is estimated to be substantially completed.

Confirmation of evacuation is essential for security reasons, to assure that all population has left the area and to assist those persons having difficulties in evacu-ating. POSSISLE APPROACHES TO CONFIRMING THE EVACUATION OF Ti:E EPZ Confirmation of evacuation may be approached in various ways: e Active or passiver Proof of evacuation may require some action by the evacuee, or, on the other hand, may be accomplished through other means, without any action on the part of the evacuee. e Extent of coverage of the population: 1he confirmation process may attempt to include 100 percent of the population (that is, every household) or it may be on a sampling basis, with some fraction of the total population surveyed. 1 e Detailed method of confirmation: A variety of detailed methods of confirmation is possible. One such method is for the evacuating household to leave some indication (sign, flag, symbol, etc.) at their residence upon evacuating. Security personnel would patrol through the EPZ, monitoring the progress of the evacuation and the rate at which the residents are leaving. Another method of confirmation is to have monitors caii households by telephone and ascertain that they l have left the area. These methods may be supplemented by monitoring the outbound flow of traffic and recording the cumulative number of people leaving the area. l 72

RECOMMENDED CONCEPT FOR CONFIRMING EVACUATION IN THE OCONEE EPZ It is recommended that the confirmatio1 process for the Oconee EPZ be: e Passive - The compliance problems with active methods of confirm- ! ation fthat is, which require action.on the part of the evacuees) are large, and substantfal numbers of the evacuation population would not comply with any s'uch plan. Furthermore, the size of the population in the Oconee EPZ dictates major administrative effort in simply monitoring the confirmation indicaters. For this reason, a passive confirmation concept (that is, one not requiring any action by the evacuee) is preferable.

                                         ~

e Sampled - It is not realistic to expect timely information on evacu-ation progress based on 100 percent confirmation that each of the households has evacuated. To do this would require either (a) an unreasonable number of monitors to cover all households in the EPZ or (b) a length of time required that extends far beyond the expected maximum evacuation time. The accuracy of a sampled approach is likely to be as good, or even better, than an active system with its attendant problems of non-compliance by the evacuating households. Confirmation by Telephone - One possible methoc for accomplishing a passive, sampled confirmation of evacustion is through a telephone sampling method. In such a method, monitors call a randomly selected grcup of households to confirm the evacuation has occurred. If continuing information on a cross-section of house-holds is desired, this sampikg could be repeated at regular intervals. TIME REQUIRED FOR CONFIRMATION The time required for confirmation depends on the degree of assurance desired. For example, a survey of 100 percent of the EPZ population would assure an accu-rate measure of the success of the evacuation. On the other htad, such a survey would be lengthy and costly in terms of resources that would be needed for other preparedness activities that would be occurring at that time. Partial surveys of the EPZ population (samples) when properly devised, can offer a high degree of reliabi!ity without the cost of a full surve'y.

                                                  ;7A

At the 95 percent confidence level, an accuracy of plus or minus 2 percent can be obtained with a survey of 900 households. In other words, on the basis of 900 telephone calls (whether answered or not) there can be a 95 percent assurance that the survey fraction of population evacuated is within 2 percent of the "true" frac-tion evacuated (as would be established with a 100 percent survey of all EPZ households). This level of accuracy is likely to be higher than any other method of confirmation, particularly those that require an evacuating family to leave a signal indicating that they have departed the EPZ household. The time required for a telephone survey of confirmation, yielding the accuracy described above, is I hour and 40 minutes. This time is based on a staff of six telephone surveyors, completing an average of 1.5 calls per minute. 74

APPENDIX A POPULATION BY 22.5 DEGREE SECTORS ' 9 INTRODUCTION This Appendix includes the following distributions, arranged into 22.5 degree sectors and within 2,5 and 10 miles of the Oconee Nuclear Station: < (1) Permanent population (2) Estimated evacuation vehicles of the permanent population (3) Estimated transient population (4) Estimated evacuation vehicles of the transient population i l I l i t { ' A-1 p y .e..-

                            , .        ,    -            .,        a

Exhibit A 1. Permanent Population by Sector I 125 ] N r als 1 NNW NNE 108 is I1267l 1080 21 5 g[ II 10 mites i l 1044 1387 WNW 17 ENE 942 5 118631 803 223 451 1348 125 3 02 507 6 I 3257 255 a 20 573 1433 Y y o So M 447 g 320 j 2419 219 275 2366 W$W 114 ESE 459 y 2113 6636 sw SE 9631 11,811 [6984! 2600

                                              $$W                                                SSE

[9640 l - 5 W l52,675)((E"E"[**[" (10,9,3J l ~ PDFULATION TOTALS l nias urtes ,e,f[no, tern urtas Myd#o! i ... 2ea ..: 2s> 03 4,424 l 35 4r142 8 10 l 49,251  ! 0 10 52,675 - A-2

l I

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            \

Exhibit A 2. Estimated Evacuation Vehicles of Permanent Population o WNE NNW 47 d g 467 93 gg 10 w as 599 451 b ENE WNW 582 347 96 195 00 219 54 6 s 1 9 248 619 I I 1407 110

                                                                                                                                                                             #p 7

i 151e o 193 1 4 138 1022 1045 95 119 ESE 49 M WSW 3 198 @ 2867 913 SE I 10221 SW 4161 slo 2 g

                                                                                                                                             .1123 SSE
                                                                                                                   $$W 4 "                                              5                                                                         L51%J l 22, ea2 g*';',5,*;;,' ***                                                                                 rrfis7
                                                                                                 ',                               VEHICLES                                       10TALS RING W!LES '

3,g"g'ief gg TOTAL wtLis CgA gE 122 02 122 42 1,912 3+8 1,7 o 0 08 l AU,o43 4 10 22,682 ' 4 10  ; i A-3

 ---              ,--,,-e-      , , - - _       . , , .      , . , , , . , _ , . , , . _ , , , , , , , _ _ , _ . . , ,

 .            a          .

Exhibit A 3. Estimated Transient Population [ 3454 l f M N 3 NNW NNE 2745 [ 1482 l o 979 M NW WE 10 mus o o WNW sea ENE Q o 1136 96 1354 $ I 66 ] o 0

                                                                                       'c ' s n2o                  o 48              - 66 I                                  116                s                   4             o                                   P o

[ 10511

                                                                                                       >g                                         O         43 !

237 4D3 o j 120 o o WSW 820 s2s ESE I l I 5801 3M W 1,811 49 ! SW SE [ 198Cj 2,414 3 374 [ 91 l o

                                                             $$W                                                      SSE J   1*       -

3 I4 631 j l 20,241 1;*';' j'q',a', *5*' 'a A POPULAil0N TOTALS RIN G. MILE S M[Nigg TOTAL M!LES k%jyQ T 02 3,370 02 1 17 n 3.s 5,499 08 6,609 s .10 11,372 0 10 20,241 1 . A-4 l l .. .

                                     - ... - a . .. _                              _

Exhibit A-4. Estimated Evacuation Vehicles of the Transient Population PJ 5 I m N I 10271 NNW NNE 980 M 0 350 (117l NW NE 10 mitas 0 0 INW 34 237 483 ENE I 67 1 0 406 0 5 0 m 0 1,6 2 N E) 0 47 - 24 W 0 41 l 33- 5 t 0 0 1375 I 1 0" J+ W 85 6$ 0 43 g WSW 293 118 1207 ] ., I i 28 I 647 17 SW SE [ 707 ] 862 1205 [ 32 ] O SSW SSE L1112 ) 5 IL4El i 7,2261 j,*,',s g ,..i ww.

                        ,                                      y VEHICLES       10TALS aiwo uites         ,/jstra         TOTAL WLES      Oh[ [g     I 02              1,202             02            1,202 3as            1,963              0s            3.165 S *10          4,nAl              0 10          7,226 A-5

 , e s APPENDIX B DERIVATION OF NON-AUTO-OWNING POPULATION AND NUMBER OF CARS USED FOR EVACUATION The number of non-auto-owning households in the Oconee EPZ is derived on the basis of the two-county car ownership pattern as obtained from the 1970 census, and then updated to reflect the statewide trend in automobile ownership from 1970 to 1979.

AUTOMOBILE OWNERSHIP IN 1970 The car ownership pattern fer Pickens and Oconee Counties, as derived from the 1970 census, is shown below: Percentage of Households Autos Pickens County Owned by Oconee County Total _ Household _ Rural Total 2-County _ Rural Total _ Area 0 10 12 15 17 14 1 47 46 47 45  % 2 35 35 33 33 34 3 or more 8 7 5 5 6 l As indicated in the above table,14 percent of the households in the two-county area did not own an automobile in 1970. i i B-1

       .c.

AUTOMOBILE OWNERSHIP IN 1979 From 1970 to 1979, the vehicles per household in South Carolina increased from 1.47 to 1.89, an increase of 29 pe'rcent.I e Applying this rate of increase to the 1970 auto ' ownership for the Pickens/Oconee County area yields an estimated 1979 ownership rate of 1.71 vehicle per household in 1979. Based on auto ownership patterns in comparable areas in South Carolina and throughout the United States, the rate of non-auto households expected with an 3 aggregate auto ownership of 1.71 vehicle per household is established at 9 percent. The ratio of 1979 to 1970 non-auto households (i.e., 9/14) is then applied to the-non-auto percentages for the individual counties and for the rural portions of these county populations. NUMBER OF AUTOMOBILES USED FOR EVACUATION BY AUTO-OWNING HOUSEHOLDS The use of automoblies for purposes of evacuation is derived as follows:

1. One-auto households will use, of course, the one available auto-mobile.

2. In two-auto households, it is assumed that half the households will use one auto and the other half will use both autos. This assumption is i

based upon the likelihood that a large proportion of two-auto house-holds have more than four members in the family.

3. In three-auto households, it is assumed that two autos will be used for evacuation purposes.

l l

1. Statistical Abstract of the United States,1980.

2. Trip Generation Analysis, USDOT,1975.

     ,                                                 B-2

v

   . e        n

3. Probabilistic - The EVACPLAN program recognizes that the time distributions for completing each of the various relocation steps are, in the statistical sense, conditional probability, distributions, contin ,

gent on completion of the previous steps. Total dep.arture times--that is, the times needed for the entire preparation process-are derived by computing the joint probability distribution from the individual time distributions for each step. 4. Sensitive to control measures - the EVACPLAN model can reflect the full range of measures that might be employed to improve the evacuation traffic flow. This range includes actions to re flow of traffic onto the road system (demand measures), gulate actions to the increase the available road capacity for relocation flows (supply measures), and actions to improve the capacity of the available roads (traffic control measures). THE EVACURVE MODULE The EVACURVE module calculates the " departure curve" for the EPZ population; that is, the distribution of time needed for the EFZ population to complete preparations to evacuate. The departure curve, therefore, also defines the rate at which the EPZ population enters (or attempts to enter) the evacuation route system. The EVACURVE module calculates the departure curve from a series of time distributions needed to complete each step of the evacuation sequence. Statis-tically, the time distribution for each individual step is a conditional probability distribution; the final departure curve is calculated by computing the joint proba-bility distribution of all the component steps. Inputs to the EVACURVE Module l The series of action steps which comprise the evacuation sequence is identified. t The time distribution required to complete each individual step of the evacuation sequence will be established. Methods for establishing these distributions will be based on local preparedness plans, projections of shut-down times by employers and institutions (such as schools), driving time to return home and distribution of time needed for securing households as derived from evacuation studies icr nuclear power plants and natural disasters. C-2

v The time distributions for each step are characteristically in the "S-curve" form. This reflects the behavioral realities of the risk area population; that is, some of the population will complete a particular step rapidly (the low " tail" of the curve), most of the population will complete the step in times which cluster around the center of the distribution (the steep central portion of the curve), and a small par't of the population will require a very long time for the step (the " tall" at the high end of the distribution. Computation Procedure for the EVACURVE Module The EVACURVE program computes the final departure curve for the EPZ popu-lation; that is, the rate at which the EPZ population enters the road system. This curve is computed as the joint probability distribution of each of the steps which comprise the relocation. The EVACURVE program can compute the departure curve at any desired level of detail; that is for any time interval. Typically, a time interval of five minutes is l appropriate for computing the departure curve; that is, a value of the departure distribution is computed for each five-minute interval of the evacuation period. Outputs of the EVACURVE Module The EVACURVE module summarizes the input time distributions for the individual action steps of the evacuation sequence (Exhibit C-1). The final departure curve is displayed in graphical and tabular form (Exhibits C-2 and C-3). THE QUEUE MODULE The QUEUE module begins with the evacuation road network (that is, the system of roads available for evacuation) and the distribution of population onto this network. The QUEUE module then simulates the traffic flow through the evacuation road network. This simulation is iterative; that is, it is repeated for small increments of C-3

n t o Exhibit C 1. Example Of input Time Distribut!Ons for Evacurve Module of PRC Evacplan Program 11/22/81 OCONEE EVACUATION TIMES PO. l

               ................. INPUT DISTRIBUTIONS ------------------

DAY-WEEKEND-WINTER (VALUES IN PERCENT POPULATION) TIME FROM START RECEIVE TIME FROM RECEIPT LEAVE OF NOTIFICATION MESSAGE OF INFORMATION WORK O: 5 0.0 0: 5 0.0 0:10 0.0 0:10 50.00 0:15 10.00 0:15 30.00 0:20 10.00 0:20 10.00 0:25 30.00 0:25 0.0 0:30 30.00 0:30 5.00 0:35 10.00 0:35 0.0 0:40 5.00 0:40 0.0 0:45 5.00 0:45 5.00 0:50 0.0 0:50 0.0 0:55 0.0 0:55 0.0 1: O O.0 1: O O.0 1: 5 0.0 1: 5 0.0 1:10 0.0 1:10 0.0 1:15 0.0 1:15 0.0 1:20 0.0 1:20 0.0 1:25 0.0 1:25 0.0 1:30 0.0 1:30 0.0 1:35 0.0 1:35 0.0 1:40 0.0 1:40 0.0 1:45 0.0 1:45 0.0 1:50 0.C 1:50 0.0 TIME AFfER TRAVEL TIME AFTER PREPARE LEAVING WORK HOME ARRIVAL HOME EVACUATE 0: 5 50.00 0: 5 0.0 0:10 30.00 0:10 0.0 0:15 10.00 0:15 10.00 0:20 10.00 0:20 5.00 0:25 0.0 0:25 10.00 0:30 0.0 0:30 15.00 0:35 0.0 0:35 15.00 0:40 0.0 0:40 25.00 0:45 0.0 0:45 0.0 0:50 O.O 0:50 10.00 0:55 0.0 0:55 0.0 1: O O.0 f: O 5.00 1: 5 0.0 1: 5 0.0 1:10 0.0 1:10 0.0 1:15 0.0 1:15 0.0 1:20 0.0 1;20 0.0 1:25 0.0 1:25 0.0 1:30 0.0 1:30 0.0 1:35 0.0 1:35 5.00 1:40 0.0 1:40 0.0 1:45 00 1:45 0.0 1:50 0.0 1:50 0.0 PRC V00RHEFS EVAC PLAN PACK C.4

m ( 'e time. Consequently, the status of traffic congestion is calculated at each time interval, and the dynamic aspects of traffic flow and congestion can be traced. Inputs to the QUEUE Module Inputs to the QUEUE program are:

1. _ Road network used for evacuation. This includes the major evacu-ation routes, branches to these routes (evacuation subroutes), and points at which the population enters the evacuation route system (loading points).

2. Departure curve for the risk area population, which gives the rate at which the population enters the road system. The departure curve is the direct output of the EVACURVE module as described above.

3. Traffic flow parameters to reflect the capacity of the roads in the relocation network.

The evacuation route network within the EPZ is coded into a form needed for entry into the QUEUE program. This coding process consists of:

1. Designating the major evacuation routes. The number of such routes depends on the specific corridor being considered: typically, there are two to five major evacuation routes in any given corridor.

2. Designating the subroutes; that is, the roads that feed traffic onto the major evacuation routes. The number of subroutes also depends on the specific corrdor being considered; typically, there are 2-4 subroutes for each major relocation route.

3. Establishing the loading points, locations at which relocation traffic is assumed to be generated and at which it enters the relocation road system. l.oading points are an abstraction of the actual road system, representing concentrations of households, workplaces, etc.

Typically, a total of 10-15 loading points is established for each of the major evacuation routes. Computation Procedure for the QUEUE Module The QUEUE program calculates, for each time interval, the arrival and departure of traffic at all locations throughout the evacuation road system. Arrival rates of traffic are determined by: C-7

JC

1. The output of the EVACURVE module, which establishes for all evacuation routes the rate at which traffic enters (or attempts to enter) the evacuation road system, and

2. The loading of traffic onto the individual evacuation routes. This loading is made on the basis of population concentrations and special activity centers.

The rate of discharge of traffic through intersections is determined by:

1. The available lanes of roadway

2. The traffic flow rate, typically 1,200 vehicles per hour on each departure lane for surface roads, and 1,800 per lane on freewsys.

Traffic flow rates can be adjusted to reflect adverse conditions or other obstacles to free traffic flow. Traffic queues at any given lccation are discharged at a rate proportional to their magnitude; 1,e., the longer a queue the greater its priority at the intersection where the queue originates. This algorithm simulates the traffic control that would be achieved by a competent traffic control officer on duty at such locations. l The QUEUE program identifies locations at which congestion occurs and calculates the extent of such congestio0. Measures which are computed include the length (time) of the period over which congestion persists at particular locations, the maximum delay experienced by a vehicle passing through any congested location, and the extent (distance) of congestion on the relocation road network. Outouts of the QUEUE Module A summary of all evacuation routes is prepared (Exhibit C-4). For each evacuation route, a summary status report is prepared (Exhibit C-5). A detailed tabular report on each congested location at which congestion occurs is prepared (Exhibit C-6). C-3

e - -

   /   1                                                                                   ;

Exhibit C-4. Example of Summary of Evacuation Times by Route, from Queue Module of PRC Evacplan Program 11/22/81 OCONEE NUCLEAR POWER STATION PG. 51 EVACUATION ROUTE

SUMMARY

TIME TO EVACUATE ROUTE POPULATION VEHICLES (HOURS) SC 133 WEST 5174 2224 3:25 SC 11 SOUTH 6222 2675 3:30 US 123 WEST 2506 1077 3:25 SEC RTE 63 2340 1006 3:25 SC 59 7021 3019 3:45 SEC RTE 21 3900 1676 3:25 US 76 SOUTH 10880 4678 3:25 US 123 EAST 7541 3242 3:25 SC 93 4514 1941 3:25 SC 183 EAST 2663 tt45 3:25 PQC VCORHEES EVAC PLAN PACK f C-9

   ,e                                                                    -
 /     .

Exhibit C 5. Example of Evacuation Route Status Report, from Queue Module Of PRC Evacplan Program 11/22/81 OCONEE NUCLEAR POWER STATION PG, 7 ROUTE

SUMMARY

SC 11 SOUTH START OF END OF TOTAL PEAK MAX INTER- QUEUE QUEUE PEAK QUEUE DELAY SECTION (PER100) (PERICO) QUEUE (VEH) LENGTH (VEH) (PERICOS) TIME t O O O O O O 2 O O O O O O 3 6 7 14 9 0 6 4 6 8 83 65 0 6 5 5 9 167 151 1 7 6 5 9 159 157 1 8 7 5 10 252 246 1 8 8 5 11 213 213 1 9 9 5 13 490 488 2 10 MAX. TIME TO EVACUATE = 3:30 HOURS INTERSECTIONS: t=SC 11 & SEC RTE 145 2=SC 11 & SFC RTE 129 3=SC 11 4 SEC RTE 94 4=SC 11 & SEC RTE 198 5=SC 11 & SEC RTF 34 6=SC 11 & SEC RTE 131 7=SC 11 & SEC RTE 133 8=SC tl & SEC RTE 60 9sSC 11 & SC 28 l PRC VOCRHEFS EVAC PLAN PACK i l l C-10

y _ f ', Exhibit C 6. Example of Tabular Report for Specific Congested Location, from Queue Module PRC Evacplan Program 11/22/81 OCONEE NUCLEAR POWER STATION PG. S INTERSECTION: SC 11 & SEC RTE 198 ROUTE: SC 11 SOUTH TIME PERIOD: 6 LEG ARRIVALS DEPART Q*)EUE QUEUE LENGTH (VEH) (VEH) (VEH) (MILE

                                 ........ ...... ....... ........S)....

1 205 65 0.3 2 51 18 3 0.1 300 4 0 0 0.0 TOTAL 256. 300 83 0.4 TOTAL .4CRIVALS: 256. VEHICLES TOTAL 8ACMLOG: 39 VEHICLES NOTE: LEG t= MAIN APPROACH LEG LEGS 2.4= SIDE APPROACH LEGS LEG 3* EXIT LEG PRC V0ORHEES EVAC PLAN PACM C-11 l}}