ML19044A773

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Exhibit 4a to Saouma Declaration: Introduction and Executive Summary
ML19044A773
Person / Time
Site: Seabrook NextEra Energy icon.png
Issue date: 02/12/2019
From:
C-10 Research & Education Foundation, Harmon, Curran, Harmon, Curran, Spielberg & Eisenberg, LLP
To:
NRC/SECY
SECY RAS
Shared Package
ML19044A766 List:
References
50-443-LA-2, 50-443-LAR, ASLBP 17-953-02-LA-BD01, RAS 54795
Download: ML19044A773 (2)


Text

CONTAINSPROPRIETARYINFORMATION{SUBJECTTOPROTECTIVEORDERReviewofSelectedDocumentsPertainingtotheStructuralEvaluationofSeabrookNuclearPowerPlantByProf.VictorE.SaoumaUniversityofColorado,BoulderSubmittedtoC-10ResearchandEducationFoundationNewburyport,MAFeb.12,20191 CONTAINSPROPRIETARYINFORMATION{SUBJECTTOPROTECTIVEORDER1IntroductionandExecutiveSummaryThisreportpresentsmyevaluationofthelarge-scaletestingofconcretespecimensattheFergusonStructuralEngineeringLaboratory(FSEL)attheUniversityofTexasforthepurposeofevaluatingtheofAlkali-SilicareactionattheSeabrooknuclearpowerplantontheabilityofthecontainmenttowithstandadesign-basisearthquake.IhavealsoreviewedtheelementassessmentofSeabrookconductedbySGH,aconsultanttoNextEraEnergySeabrook,LLC.TheFSELtestprogramsfrommultiplewsthatcannotprovideasolidbasisfortheauthor'sfar-reachingconclusions.Threemajorconcernsarenoted:First,asdiscussedinSection2.3,concreteusedintheFSELtestsisnotrepresentativeoftheconcreteatSeabrook.Thislackofrepresentativenesscutsacrossvirtuallyeverylevelofthetest,includingcharacteristicsofthematerialstested,testconditions,andassumptionsaboutthebehaviorofconcreteunderelementsimulations.Second,asdiscussedinSection3.3,theSheartestsdonothavetheproperboundaryconditions.Theyarealsolimitedtoout-of-planeshear,andsomelargeunexplainedcracksmayhavecorruptedthetestresults.Inaddition,thereisnoevidencethatthelimitstate(i.e.failureshearforce)wascapturedandthusthereisnoevidencethatshearfailurewasindeedcapturedasclaimed.Finally,asdiscussedinSection4.3,thecrackindexmeasurementsreliedonbytheauthorcannotprovideareliableassessmentofthein-situASRexpansion,becauseacrackindexmeasuredonthesurface(wheretheconcreteisrelativelydry)isnotrepresentativeofwhatishappeninginsidethespecimenwheretherelativehumidity(essentialforASR)ismuchhigher.Ofequal{ifnotgreater{concernistheelementassessmentofSeabrookconductedbySimpson,Gumpertz,&Heger(SGH).ThenumericaltechniquefollowedbySGHisadeterministic,linearandsimplisticmethodthatisusedforthedesignofnewstructures.ItisveryregretfulthatSGHdidnotemployinadditiontotheirminimalistanalysistheprobabilisticriskassessmentmethodpioneeredbytheNRC.Whereeasthiswouldhaverequiredanonlinearstaticandseismicanalyses,SGHcouldhaveobtainedamuchmoreaccurateassessmentcommensuratewiththeneedsforsuchacriticalstructure.ThisprobabilisticmethodwaspioneeredbytheNRCandiswell-acceptedasausefultoolforanalyzingthecomplexinteractionsofphenomenainnuclearsafetyanalyses.Myownindependentresearch,conductedonbehalfoftheNRCbetween2014and2017,thatprobabilisticanalysisofASRyieldsmorecredibleresultsthanthetypeoflinearanddeterministicanalysisusedbySGH.ThetestprogramatFSELwasexecutedbyaresearcherwellversedwithlarge-scaletestingandreinforcedconcreteingeneral.However,hispriorexposuretoASRseemstohavebeenlimitedtoapasttestprogramfortheTexasDepartmentofTransportation(testinglargescalebeamswithASR)incollaborationwithProf.Folliard,aninternationallyknownandrespectedresearcheronthematterofASR.ButDr.FolliarddidnotparticipateintheFSELtestprogram.Insummary,itismyprofessionalopinionthatboththeFSELtestprogramandtheSGHiteele-mentanalysisaresubstandardandinadequatetosupportanyconclusionthattheabilityoftheSeabrookcontainmenttowithstandadesignbasisearthquakehasnotbeenundulycompromisedbythepresenceofASR.Finally,asaresearcherandaconcernedcitizen,itisdisturbingthatwhentheNRCwasforthetimeconfrontedwithsuchacomplexissueithasnotsubjectedthevariousstudiestoanindependentreviewpanelofinternationalexperts.WhileNRChasstatedthatitconductedaninternalpeerreview,byitsowntermsaninternalpeerreviewisnotindependent.1.1DisclosureIwastherecipientofNRCGrantNo:NRC-HQ-60-14-G-0010titledExperimentalandNumericalInvesti-gationofAlkaliSilicaReactioninNuclearReactorsfromSeptember30,2014toDec.30,2017,andhaveconductedthisevaluationpro-bono.Otherdescribedinseparatedocument.3