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{{#Wiki_filter:APPENDIX DDetailed Description of Study Procedure D. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF STUDY PROCEDURE This appendix describes the activities that were performed to compute Evacuation TimeEstimates. | |||
The individual steps of this effort are represented as a flow diagram in Figure D-1.Each numbered step in the description that follows corresponds to the numbered element inthe flow diagram.Step 1The first activity was to obtain EPZ boundary information and create a GIS base map. The basemap extends beyond the Shadow Region which extends approximately 15 miles (radially) fromthe power plant location. | |||
The base map incorporates the local roadway topology, a suitabletopographic background and the EPZ boundary. | |||
Step 22010 Census block information was obtained | |||
Revision as of 15:46, 1 July 2018
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APPENDIX DDetailed Description of Study Procedure D. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF STUDY PROCEDURE This appendix describes the activities that were performed to compute Evacuation TimeEstimates.
The individual steps of this effort are represented as a flow diagram in Figure D-1.Each numbered step in the description that follows corresponds to the numbered element inthe flow diagram.Step 1The first activity was to obtain EPZ boundary information and create a GIS base map. The basemap extends beyond the Shadow Region which extends approximately 15 miles (radially) fromthe power plant location.
The base map incorporates the local roadway topology, a suitabletopographic background and the EPZ boundary.
Step 22010 Census block information was obtained in GIS format. This information was used toestimate the resident population within the EPZ and Shadow Region and to define the spatialdistribution and demographic characteristics of the population within the study area. Transient, employment, and special facility data were obtained from Exelon, county emergency management
- agencies, and phone calls to individual facilities.
Step 3Next, a physical survey of the roadway system in the study area was conducted to determine the geometric properties of the highway sections, the channelization of lanes on each sectionof roadway, whether there are any turn restrictions or special treatment of traffic atintersections, the type and functioning of traffic control devices, gathering signal timings forpre-timed traffic signals, and to make the necessary observations needed to estimate realistic values of roadway capacity.
Step 4The results of a telephone survey of households within the EPZ were obtained from Exelon toidentify household
- dynamics, trip generation characteristics, and evacuation-related demographic information of the EPZ population.
This information was used to determine important study factors including the average number of evacuating vehicles used by eachhousehold, and the time required to perform pre-evacuation mobilization activities.
Step 5A computerized representation of the physical roadway system, called a link-node analysisnetwork, was developed using the UNITES software (see Section 1.3) developed by KLD. Oncethe geometry of the network was completed, the network was calibrated using the information gathered during the road survey (Step 3). Estimates of highway capacity for each link and otherlink-specific characteristics were introduced to the network description.
Traffic signal timingswere input accordingly.
The link-node analysis network was imported into a GIS map. 2010Census data were overlaid in the map, and origin centroids where trips would be generated during the evacuation process were assigned to appropriate links.LaSalle County Generating Station D-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Step 6The EPZ is subdivided into 13 Sub-areas.
Based on wind direction and speed, Regions (groupings of Sub-areas) that may be advised to evacuate, were developed.
The need for evacuation can occur over a range of time-of-day, day-of-week, seasonal andweather-related conditions.
Scenarios were developed to capture the variation in evacuation demand, highway capacity and mobilization time, for different time of day, day of the week,time of year, and weather conditions.
Step 7The input stream for the DYNEV II model, which integrates the dynamic traffic assignment anddistribution model, DTRAD, with the evacuation simulation model, was created for a prototype evacuation case -the evacuation of the entire EPZ for a representative scenario.
Step 8After creating this input stream, the DYNEV II System was executed on the prototype evacuation case to compute evacuating traffic routing patterns consistent with the appropriate NRC guidelines.
DYNEV II contains an extensive suite of data diagnostics which check thecompleteness and consistency of the input data specified.
The analyst reviews all warning anderror messages produced by the model and then corrects the database to create an inputstream that properly executes to completion.
The model assigns destinations to all origin centroids consistent with a (general) radialevacuation of the EPZ and Shadow Region. The analyst may optionally supplement and/orreplace these model-assigned destinations, based on professional
- judgment, after studying thetopology of the analysis highway network.
The model produces link and network-wide measures of effectiveness as well as estimates of evacuation time.Step 9The results generated by the prototype evacuation case are critically examined.
Theexamination includes observing the animated graphics (using the EVAN software whichoperates on data produced by DYNEV II) and reviewing the statistics output by the model. Thisis a labor-intensive
- activity, requiring the direct participation of skilled engineers who possessthe necessary practical experience to interpret the results and to determine the causes of anyproblems reflected in the results.Essentially, the approach is to identify those bottlenecks in the network that represent locations where congested conditions are pronounced and to identify the cause of thiscongestion.
This cause can take many forms, either as excess demand due to high rates of tripgeneration, improper
- routing, a shortfall of capacity, or as a quantitative flaw in the way thephysical system was represented in the input stream. This examination leads to one of twoconclusions:
" The results are satisfactory; or* The input stream must be modified accordingly.
LaSalle County Generating Station D-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time EstimateRev. 0 This decision
- requires, of course, the application of the user's judgment and experience basedupon the results obtained in previous applications of the model and a comparison of the resultsof the latest prototype evacuation case iteration with the previous ones. If the results aresatisfactory in the opinion of the user, then the process continues with Step 13. Otherwise, proceed to Step 11.Step 10There are many "treatments" available to the user in resolving apparent problems.
Thesetreatments range from decisions to reroute the traffic by assigning additional evacuation destinations for one or more sources, imposing turn restrictions where they can producesignificant improvements in capacity, changing the control treatment at critical intersections soas to provide improved service for one or more movements, or in prescribing specifictreatments for channelizing the flow so as to expedite the movement of traffic along majorroadway systems.
Such "treatments" take the form of modifications to the original prototype evacuation case input stream. All treatments are designed to improve the representation ofevacuation behavior.
Step 11As noted above, the changes to the input stream must be implemented to reflect themodifications undertaken in Step 10. At the completion of this activity, the process returns toStep 9 where the DYNEV II System is again executed.
Step 12Evacuation of transit-dependent evacuees and special facilities are included in the evacuation analysis.
Fixed routing for transit buses and for school buses, ambulances, and other transitvehicles are introduced into the final prototype evacuation case data set. DYNEV II generates route-specific speeds over time for use in the estimation of evacuation times for the transitdependent and special facility population groups.Step 13The prototype evacuation case was used as the basis for generating all region and scenario-specific evacuation cases to be simulated.
This process was automated through the UNITES userinterface.
For each specific case, the population to be evacuated, the trip generation distributions, the highway capacity and speeds, and other factors are adjusted to produce acustomized case-specific data set.Step 14All evacuation cases are executed using the DYNEV II System to compute ETE. Once results areavailable, quality control procedures are used to assure the results are consistent, dynamicrouting is reasonable, and traffic congestion/bottlenecks are addressed properly.
LaSalle County Generating Station D-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Step 15Once vehicular evacuation results are accepted, average travel speeds for transit and specialfacility routes are used to compute evacuation time estimates for transit-dependent permanent residents,
- schools, hospitals, and other special facilities.
Step 16The simulation results are analyzed, tabulated and graphed.
The results were thendocumented, as required by NUREG/CR-7002.
Step 17Following the completion of documentation activities, the ETE criteria checklist (see AppendixN) was completed.
An appropriate report reference is provided for each criterion provided inthe checklist.
LaSalle County Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateD-4KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Step 1Create GIS Base Map4 Step 2Gather Census Block and Demographic Data forStudy AreaStep 3IIField Survey of Roadways within Study AreaIStep 4Analyze Telephone Survey and Develop TripGeneration Characteristics F- Step 5Create and Calibrate Link-Node Analysis NetworkF- Step 6Develop Evacuation Regions and Scep7/F Step 7 .Step 12Establish Transit and Special Facility Evacuation Routes and Update DYNEV-11 DatabaseIStep 13I Create and Debug DYNEV-11 Input Stream_ _ _ Step 8Generate DYNEV-11 Input Streams for AllEvacuation CasesStep 14Use DYNEV-11 Average Speed Output to ComputeETE for Transit and Special Facility RoutesIStep 151~Execute DYNEV II for Prototype Evacuation CaseIUse DYNEV-11 Results to Estimate Transit andSpecial Facilities Evacuation Time Estimates Step 16DocumentationStep 17J Complete ETE Criteria Checklist Figure D-1. Flow Diagram of Activities LaSalle County Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateD-5KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 APPENDIX ESpecial Facility Data E. SPECIAL FACILITY DATAThe following tables list population information, as of March 2014, for special facilities, recreational areas and major employers that are located within the LAS EPZ. Special facilities are defined as schools, preschools, day camps, medical facilities and military installations.
Transient population data is included in the table for recreational areas. Employment data isincluded in the table for major employers.
Each table is grouped by county. The location of thefacility is defined by its straight-line distance (miles) and direction (magnetic bearing) from thecenter point of the plant. Maps of each school, preschool, day camp, medical facility, recreational area, military installation and major employer are also provided.
LaSalle County Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateE-1KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table E-1. Schools within the EPZ410.5SWGrace Church-Rhema Christian Academy1634 IL-23Streator32N/A5 6.4 S Ransom Consolidated School 400 South Lane St. Ransom 114 23Grand Ridge Community Consolidated (CC)7 8.7 W School 400 West Main St. Grand Ridge 337 438 9.9 WNW Central Intermediate School 711 East McKinley Rd. Ottawa 474 N/A8 9.9 WNW Shepherd Middle School 701 East McKinley Rd. Ottawa 419 8010 5.6 NNW Marseilles Elementary School 201 Chicago St. Marseilles 673 8010 5.4 NE Seneca CC School North Campus 174 Oak St. Seneca 292 5010 5.1 NE Seneca CC School South Campus 410 South Main St. Seneca 188 4910 5.9 NE Seneca Township High School 307 East Scott St. Seneca 503 104--ý -z ---TN/A: Not available LaSalle County Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateE-2KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table E-2. Preschools and Day Camps within the EPZDsta c .-I -EnolLaal Cony IL411.4SWHoly Trinity Lutheran Preschool 101 Trinity Dr.Streator908 9.2 NW Girl Scout Camp Pokanoka North 2703rd Rd. Fall River 12010 5.1 NE Glory Land Kids Childcare Center 423 South Main St. Seneca 2210 5.5 NE Seneca Head Start 104 North Main St. Seneca 18Table E-3. Medical Facilities within the EPZ-ma -hel -ed4 11.4 SW Heritage Manor 1525 East Main St. Streator 125 29 96 0Ottawa Friendship 1718 North 2525th15500 8 9.3 WW House Rd. Ottawa11 6.3 NW Rivershores Center 578 Commercial St. Marseilles 70 16 54 0LaSalle County Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateE-3KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table E-4. Employers within the EPZt. / I NIL U- inaustries I ?5/ouwvest uuronT Ka. 1 zenecarIot a major empioyer1 7.5 NE Evenson Explosives 2019 Dunn Rd. Morris 70 75.6% 539 7.0 NE Forbo Adhesives, LLC 7440 West Dupont Rd. Morris7 8. W raico S (ran Rige) 00 ailoadSt.Grad RdgeNot a major employer' 9 6.8 NE Oricha Nitrogen, LLC 7700 West Dupont Rd. Morris10~~~~Gud Co.3t N GeGeCr.10EatBody MrSeilotles 70 75.6% 53815dC121 'e Boawy, IMsL1 LaSalle Generating Station 2601 North 21st Rd. Marseilles 795 75.6% 6021 4.3 NE Spicer Gravel Company 2195 East Bluff St. Marseilles 5 6.1 S Ransom Fertilizer 108 West Campbell St. Ransom7 8.5 W Grainco FS (Grand Ridge) 300 Railroad St. Grand Ridge Not a major employer' 7 8.8 W Mycogen 2017 IL-23 Grand Ridge8 9.5 WNW Grainco FS (Ottawa) 3300 N. State Route 23 Grand Ridge10 5.3 N Glen Gery Corp. 1401 East Broadway Marseilles 50 75.6% 3810 7.8 NNW Hicksgas 2904 East 24th Rd. Marseilles Not a major employer' 10 5.5 N Independence Tube Corp. 1201 Broadway Marseilles 50 75.6% 3810 5.2 N Infra Metals 1601 East Broadway Marseilles 65 75.6% 5010 5.2 N PCS Phosphate 2651 IL-6 Marseilles 10 5.2 N Royster Clark 1800 East Broadway MarseillesNo amj re ply '10 5.8 NE Shipyard Terminal and Industrial Park Shipyard Rd. Seneca11 9.6 NW ADM Growmark Towpath Rd. Ottawa11 6.2 NNW Liberty Laser Solutions 375 Commercial St. Marseilles 50 75.6% 3811 10.1 NW LMK Technologies 1779 Chessie Ln. Ottawa so 75.6% 3811 6.0 NNW Marseilles Mattress Factory 220 Commercial St. MarseillesNo amj re ply "11 6.4 NNW Marseilles Waste Treatment 2 Spicer St. Marseilles 11 9.9 NW Mini-Grip Zip-Pack 1510 Warehouse Dr. Ottawa 50 75.6% 3811 7.8 NW Sabic Plastics 2148 North 2753rd Rd Ottawa 300 75.6% 22711 10.1 NW Silica Sand Transport 1S21 Warehouse Dr. Ottawa Not a maior emoloverl 1 Phone calls were made to facilities designated as "not a major employer" to verify the total employment is less than 50 employees.
LaSalle County Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateE-4KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table E-5. Recreational Areas within the EPZ0ldCK 5 Miarina t#ncnor innMarina)I4.8NE1 East DuPont Rd.Seneca150651 5.4 NNW Illini State Park Illinois and Michigan Canal Marseilles 2,000 8701 1.7 ENE LaSalle Lake Fish and Wildlife Area 2651 North 21st Rd. Marseilles 450 1961 5.4 NNW Marseilles Boat Club 2451 N 2659th Rd. Marseilles 32 141 2.4 NNW Marseilles Wildlife Area 2374 East 25th Rd. Marseilles 20 91 4.6 NE Seneca Yacht Club 219 West River Dr. Seneca 100 441 4.2 NNE Spring Brook Marina 623 North 2553rd Rd. Seneca 450 1963 4.4 NW Troll Hollow Campground 2265 N 2453 Rd. Marseilles 150 75Four Star Campground 10 6.3 N (Whispering Pines) 2776 East 2625th Rd. Marseilles 400 20010 5.9 NNW Glenwood Farms Campground 551 LaSalle St. Marseilles 400 20010 4.7 NE Mariners Village and Marina 320 Village Ln. Seneca 348 15110 6.0 NE Seneca Hunt Club 3 East Union St Seneca 50 2210 6.7 NNE Woodsmoke Ranch 2795 East 28th Rd. Seneca 3,416 1,87111 9.2 NW Heritage Harbor 1982 North 2753rd Rd. Ottawa 278 121Table E-6. Military Training Center within the EPZ1 1.6 NNW Illinois National Guard Training Center 1700 Army Rd. Marseilles 556 278LaSalle County Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateE-5KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure E-1. Schools, Preschools and Day Camps within the LAS EPZLaSalle County Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateE-6KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure E-2. Medical Facilities within the LAS EPZLaSalle County Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateE-7KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 0Figure E-3. Employers within the LAS EPZLaSalle County Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateE-8KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure E-4. Recreation Areas and Military Training Centers within the LAS EPZLaSalle County Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateE-9KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 APPENDIX FTelephone Survey F. TELEPHONE SURVEYF.1 Introduction The development of evacuation time estimates for the LAS EPZ requires the identification oftravel patterns, car ownership and household size of the population within the EPZ.Demographic information can be obtained from Census data. The use of this data has severallimitations when applied to emergency planning.
First, the Census data do not encompass therange of information needed to identify the time required for preliminary activities (mobilization) that must be undertaken prior to evacuating the area. Secondly, Census data donot contain attitudinal responses needed from the population of the EPZ and consequently maynot accurately represent the anticipated behavioral characteristics of the evacuating populace.
These concerns are addressed by conducting a telephone survey of a representative sample ofthe EPZ population.
The survey is designed to elicit information from the public concerning family demographics and estimates of response times to well defined events. The design of thesurvey includes a limited number of questions of the form "What would you do if ...?" and otherquestions regarding activities with which the respondent is familiar
("How long does it take youto ...?")Attachment A presents the final survey instrument used in this study. A sample size of 376completed survey forms yields results with a sampling error of +/-5% at the 95% confidence level. The sample must be drawn from the EPZ population.
The preliminary determination of whether a household was located inside the EPZ was basedon "land-line" telephone listings with street addresses.
Telephone surveys were thenconducted using those numbers, selected in random order, until the target level of surveys wascompleted, or the entire calling list was exhausted.
Rejections or households outside the EPZwere discarded.
Numbers with "no answer" were re-cycled for up to ten attempts in different time windows.F.2 Survey ResultsThe results of the survey fall into two categories.
First, the household demographics of the areacan be identified.
Demographic information includes such factors as household size, automobile ownership, and automobile availability.
The distributions of the time to perform certain pre-evacuation activities are the second category of survey results.
These data are processed todevelop the trip generation distributions used in the evacuation modeling effort, as discussed inSection 5.A review of the survey instrument reveals that several questions have a "don't know" (DK) or"refused" entry for a response.
It is accepted practice in conducting surveys of this type toaccept the answers of a respondent who offers a DK response for a few questions or whorefuses to answer a few questions.
To address the issue of occasional DK/refused responses from a large sample, the practice is to assume that the distribution of these responses is thesame as the underlying distribution of the positive responses.
In effect, the DK/refused responses are ignored and the distributions are based upon the positive data that is acquired.
LaSalle County Generating Station F-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 F.2.1 Household Demographic ResultsHousehold SizeFigure F-i presents the distribution of household size within the EPZ. The average household contains 2.30 people.Household Size60% --0 50%0540%0Z 30%.o-0c 20%o~10%0%1 2 3 4 5 6+PeopleFigure F-i. Household Size in the EPZAutomobile Ownership The average number of automobiles available per household in the EPZ is 2.03. 4.28% ofhouseholds do not have a vehicle available, as shown in Figure F-2.Vehicle Availability IA045%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%0 1 2 3 4Vehicles per Household 5 6+Figure F-2. Household Vehicle Availability LaSalle County Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateF-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Commuters Figure F-3 presents the distribution of the number of commuters in each household.
Commuters are defined as household members who travel to work or college on a daily basis.The data shows an average of 0.84 commuters in each household in the EPZ, and 49% ofhouseholds have at least one commuter.
____ ___-Commuters 60%50%040%0x 30%20%&10%4--0% +--012 3Commuters per Household 45Figure F-3. Commuters in Households in the EPZLaSalle County Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateF-3KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 F.2.2 Evacuation ResponseQuestions were asked to gauge the population's response to an emergency.
These are nowdiscussed:
"How many vehicles would your household take if an evacuation were ordered when allhousehold members were at home??" The response is shown in Figure F-4. On average,evacuating households would use 1.26 vehicles.
Evacuating Vehicles Per Household FA00-4--C0.90%80%70%60% -50% -40% -30%20% -10% -0% -2 41234VehiclesFigure F-4. Number of Vehicles Used for Evacuation LaSalle County Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateF-4KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 "If an evacuation notice were given while [the primary commuter]
was at work, do you thinkthey would most likely..."
The response is shown in Figure F-5. Of the survey participants whoresponded, 33 percent indicated they would evacuate from work, 49 percent said they wouldreturn home first and then evacuate, and 18 percent indicated that they would stay outside theevacuation zone where they work.Commuter Evacuation Response60%50%"040%0X 30%05 20%o 10%-t --0%-Evacuate from Work Return Home Stay outside Evacuation ZoneFigure F-5. Commuter Evacuation ResponseLaSalle County Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateF-5KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 F.2.3 Time Distribution ResultsThe survey asked several questions about the amount of time it takes to perform certain pre-evacuation activities.
These activities involve actions taken by residents during the course oftheir day-to-day lives. Thus, the answers fall within the realm of the responder's experience.
The mobilization distributions provided below are the result of having applied the analysisdescribed in Section 5.4.1 on the component activities of the mobilization.
"How long do you think it would take [the primary commuter]
to get prepared and actuallyleave work?" Figure F-6 presents the cumulative distribution; in all cases, the activity iscompleted within 75 minutes.
Ninety-four percent can leave within 30 minutes.Time to Prepare to Leave Work4)EE0U4-0~100%80%60%40%20%0%0 15 30 45 60Preparation Time (min)75Figure F-6. Time Required to Prepare to Leave WorkLaSalle County Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateF-6KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 "About how long does it take [the primary commuter]
to get from work to home?" Figure F-7presents the work to home travel time for the EPZ. Approximately 86 percent of commuters can arrive home within 30 minutes of leaving work; all within 75 minutes.Work to Home Travel100%80%E 60%040%20%a00%0 15 30 45 60 75Travel Time (min)Figure F-7. Work to Home Travel TimeF-7 KLD Engineering, p.c.LaSalle County Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateF-7KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 "If an evacuation were ordered when all household members were at home (for example, atnight or on a weekend),
approximately how long would it take your household to prepare todepart? Please assume that you are advised to plan to be away from your home for 3 days."Figure F-8 presents the time required to prepare for leaving on an evacuation trip. In manyways this activity mimics a family's preparation for a short holiday or weekend away fromhome. Hence, the responses represent the experience of the responder in performing similaractivities.
About 76 percent of households can be ready to leave home within 40 minutes; theremaining households require up to an additional 80 minutes.Preparation Time with Everyone Home100%003W4-0W-CL80%60%40%20%0%0 30 60 90Preparation Time (min)120Figure F-8. Time to Prepare Home for Evacuation The survey conducted in support of this study did not ask residents how long it would takethem to remove snow from their driveway if there were snow on the ground when anevacuation was ordered.
As discussed in Section 5.3, the response to the snow removalquestion in a survey conducted in 2012 in support of ETE development for the Duane ArnoldEnergy Center (DAEC) is adapted for this study. DAEC is located in Iowa, approximately 170miles west-northwest of LAS. It is assumed that snowfall and snow removal times arecomparable in both EPZs.F-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.LaSalle County Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateF-8KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 "How long would it take you to clear 6 to 8 inches of snow from your driveway?"
Duringadverse, snowy weather conditions, an additional activity must be performed before residents can depart on the evacuation trip. Although snow scenarios assume that the roads andhighways have been plowed and are passable (albeit at lower speeds and capacities),
it may benecessary to clear a private driveway prior to leaving the home so that the vehicle can accessthe street. Figure F-9 presents the time distribution for removing 6 to 8 inches of snow from adriveway.
The time distribution for clearing the driveway has a long tail; about 96 percent ofdriveways are passable within 60 minutes.
The last driveway is cleared two hours after thestart of this activity.
Note that those respondents (46%) who answered that they would nottake time to clear their driveway were assumed to be ready immediately at the start of thisactivity.
Essentially they would drive through the snow on the driveway to access the roadwayand begin their evacuation trip.Time to Remove Snow from Driveway0i00100%80%60%40%20%0%0 15 30 45 60Time (min)75 90 105 120Figure F-9. Time to Clear Driveway of 6V-8" of SnowF.3 Conclusions The telephone survey provides
- valuable, relevant data associated with the EPZ population, which have been used to quantify demographics specific to the EPZ, and "mobilization time"which can influence evacuation time estimates.
LaSalle County Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateF-9KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 ATTACHMENT ATelephone Survey Instrument LaSalle County Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateF-10KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Telephone Survey Instrument Exelon SurveyFinal v6 -August 23, 2011INTRODUCTION Hello, my name is and I am calling fiom MDC Research, a public opinion firm. We areconducting a brief survey to gather information from households in your area about emergency response
- planning, and we'd like to include your opinions.
This survey is being conducted onbehalf of the (insert facility name) Nuclear Facility, and will take approximately 5 minutes tocomplete.
We are not trying to sell you anything.
The information gathered from this survey willhelp local agencies more effectively provide community assistance should an emergency situation arise.Can I please speak with an adult member of the household?
SCREENERS1. What is the zip code of your primary residence?
This is the home where you live themajority of the time. DO NOT READ ZIP CODE LISTList of appropriate zip codes will be displayed here99999 Location outside the EPZ -THANK & TERMINATE S2. Which of the following categories best describes your age?11 Under 18 yrs of age -ASK FOR REFERRAL or THANK & TERMINATE 12 18 to 2413 25 to 3414 35 to 4415 45 to 5416 55 to 6417 65 to 7418 75 or older98 (DO NOT READ) RefusedQUESTIONNAIRE Q I How many people currently reside in your household?
Record: # of residents 98 (DO NOT READ) Refused -THANK & TERMINATE Q2 How many motor vehicles are normally based at your home?Record: # of vehicles997 None -SKIP TO Q14998 (DO NOT READ) RefusedLaSalle County Generating Station F-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Q3 How many members of your household are over the age of 16?Record: # of residents 998 (DO NOT READ) RefusedQ4 How many members of your household are licensed drivers?Record: # of drivers998 (DO NOT READ) RefusedQ5 How many of the adults in your household work outside the home?Record 0 Skip to Q6A997 None -Continue to Q5A998 (DO NOT READ) RefusedIf refused, explain; The nature of this project is to estimate traffic volumes andflow in the event of an emergency evacuation, so this data is necessary in orderfor us to continue with the survey.If still refused -THANK & TERMINATE Q5A (ONLY ASK IF Q5=997) Which of the following best describes the non-working adultsin your household?
MULTIPLE MENTION -IP NOTE: No more mentions than Q3mentions.
11 Currently unemployed/actively looking for work12 Retired13 On Disability or leave of absence14 Student/continuing education 15 Homemaker 99 Other -please specifySKIP TO Q1IRepeat the following Q6A-F sequence for each working adult cited in Q5For each of the working adults you just referenced, I'd like to ask a few questions related to whattheir likely actions would be in the case of an emergency evacuation.
I understand that I will beasking you to speculate on what other members of the household may do in this situation, butyour best guesses are just fine for our purposes.
Q6A Who is the first working adult in the household that you are thinking about? What is theirrelationship to you?1 Self2 Spouse or significant other3 Parent of child4 Other relative or in-law5 Roommate6 Boarder7 OtherLaSalle County Generating Station F-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Q6B Which of the following best describes this person's usual work schedule?
1 Monday -Friday, 8:00am to 5:00pm2 Swing Shift3 Graveyard 4 Evenings and weekends5 Rotating shifts6 Other or irregular schedule7 (DO NOT READ) Don't knowQ6C Does this person generally use a personal vehicle to commute back and forth to work?I Yes2 No7 (DO NOT READ) Don't knowQ6D If an evacuation notice were given while this person was at work, do you think theywould most likely...
1 Evacuate directly from work2 Come home first and then evacuate, or3 Stay outside the evacuation zone where they work D Skip to Q77 (DO NOT READ) Don't knowQ6E How long do you think it would take this person to get prepared and actually leave work?(Read list if necessary) 1 Less than 15 minutes2 15 to 30 minutes3 30 to 45 minutes4 45 to 60 minutes5 More than 60 minutes7 (DO NOT READ) Don't knowIf response at 6D is 1, skip from here to Q7Q6F About how long does it take this household member to get from work to home?(Read list if necessary)
I Less than 15 minutes2 15 to 30 minutes3 30 to 45 minutes4 45 to 60 minutes5 More than 60 minutes7 (DO NOT READ) Don't knowQ7A-F Repeat Q6 sequence for worker #2Q8A-F Repeat Q6 sequence for worker #3Q9A-F Repeat Q6 sequence for worker #4LaSalle County Generating Station F-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Q 10 And once everyone who is coming home from work has arrived, how long would it taketo prepare and depart from home, taking into consideration whether or not someone else isusually home who may be starting these preparation while they are travelling?
I Less than 15 minutes2 15 to 30 minutes3 30 to 45 minutes4 45 to 60 minutes5 More than 60 minutes7 (DO NOT READ) Don't knowQ 1I Are any of the licensed drivers in your household restricted to daytime driving only?1 Yes2 No9 (DO NOT READ) RefusedQ12 If an evacuation were ordered when all household members were at home (for example,at night or on a weekend),
approximately how long would it take your household toprepare to depart? Please assume that you are advised to plan to be away from your homefor 3 days. Would you say that it would take... READ LIST1 Less than 20 minutes to depart2 20 to 40 minutes to depart3 40 to 60 minutes to depart4 60 to 90 minutes to depart; or5 More than 90 minutes to departQ 13 How many vehicles would your household take if an evacuation were ordered when allhousehold members were at home?Record: # of vehicles998 (DO NOT READ) RefusedQ14 Are any members of your household seasonal residents?
And by seasonal we mean anypeople who do not reside in your home the majority of the year.1 Yes2 No -SKIP TO Q159 (DO NOT READ) RefusedQ14A (ASK IF Q14=l) How many of your <insert Q1 response>
household members areseasonal?
Record: # of seasonal household members998 (DO NOT READ) RefusedQI4B (ASK IF Q14=1) What seasons do they live in another location away from your home?READ LIST -Multiple Mention1 Spring2 Summer3 FallLaSalle County Generating Station F-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 4 WinterQ 15 Would any member of your household require a specialized
- vehicle, such as awheelchair, van or ambulance, to evacuate from your home in case of an emergency?
I Yes2 No9 (DO NOT READ) RefusedThis is all the questions we have for you today/tonight.
Thank you for participating in thissurvey. Your responses will help us to make an accurate prediction of traffic conditions duringan emergency situation.
If you have any questions about this survey, please feel free to contact<insert contact name, job title, and phone number/email>.
LaSalle County Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateF-15KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 APPENDIX GTraffic Management Plan G. TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT PLANNUREG/CR-7002 indicates that the existing TCPs and ACPs identified by the offsite agenciesshould be used in the evacuation simulation modeling.
The traffic and access control plans forthe EPZ were provided by the Illinois Emergency Management Agency.These plans were reviewed and the TCPs and ACPs were modeled accordingly.
G.1 Traffic Control PointsAs discussed in Section 9, traffic control points at intersections (which are controlled) aremodeled as actuated signals.
If an intersection has a pre-timed signal, stop, or yield control, andthe intersection is identified as a traffic control point, the control type was changed to anactuated signal in the DYNEV II system. Table K-2 provides the control type and node numberfor those nodes which are controlled.
If the existing control was changed due to the point beinga TCP, the control type is indicated as "TCP -Actuated" or "TCP -Uncontrolled" in Table K-2.The TCPs and ACPs within the study area are mapped in Figure G-1.G.2 Access Control PointsIt is assumed that ACPs will be established within 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> of the advisory to evacuate todiscourage through travelers from using major through routes which traverse the EPZ. Asdiscussed in Section 3.6, external traffic was considered on the major route which traverses thestudy area 80 -in this study. The generation of the external trips ceases at 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> after theadvisory to evacuate in the simulation due to the ACPs.As shown in Figure G-1, the TCPs and ACPs identified in the county and state emergency plansare concentrated along major evacuation routes and on roadways giving access to the EPZ.These TCPs and ACPs would be manned during evacuation by traffic guides who would directevacuees in the proper direction away from the plant and facilitate the flow of traffic throughthe intersections.
Detailed descriptions of each of the TCPs and ACPs and the actions to be taken by traffic guidesat these intersections are provided in the county and state plans. These actions were modeledexplicitly in the DYNEV II system. For additional information, refer to the county and state plans.As discussed in Section 9, this study did not identify any additional intersections as TCPs orACPs. The existing county and state traffic management plans are comprehensive in terms ofdiscouraging traffic from entering the EPZ.LaSalle County Generating Station G-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
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-KDEgnernPd Evacuationub a:m Esiat3ev APPENDIX HEvacuation Regions H. EVACUATION REGIONSThis appendix presents the evacuation percentages for each Evacuation Region (Table H-i) andmaps of all Evacuation Regions (Figure H-1 through Figure H-22). The percentages presented inTable H-1 are based on the methodology discussed in assumption 5 of Section 2.2 and shown inFigure 2-1.Note the baseline ETE study assumes 20 percent of households will not comply with the shelteradvisory, as per Section 2.5.2 of NUREG/CR-7002.
The City of Marseilles, Illinois is split between 2 Sub-areas.
The eastern half of the city is in Sub-area 10, while the western half is in Sub-area
- 11. Based on discussions with Exelon and theoffsite agencies, the city would always evacuate as a whole when wind is blowing toward thecity (Sub-area 10, 11, or both included in keyhole).
Thus, keyholes wherein Sub-area 10 isincluded, but not Sub-area 11 would still result in the City of Marseilles evacuating entirely.
Forexample Region R08 is an evacuation of the 5-mile radius and downwind to the EPZ boundarywith wind toward the northeast or east-northeast.
When the wind is toward the northeast, Marseilles is in the keyhole (when using the 3-sector approach described in Section 6) and theentire city evacuates.
When the wind is toward the east-northeast, the city is not within thekeyhole, but Sub-area 10 (which includes Marseilles) is. Thus, the entire city evacuates.
Similarly, keyholes wherein Sub-area 11 is included, but not Sub-area 10 would also result in theentire city evacuating.
For example, Region R17, with the wind blowing toward the west-northwest, Marseilles is not within the keyhole, but Sub-area 11 (which includes Marseilles) is.Thus, the entire city evacuates.
The evacuation of the City of Marseilles is shown graphically inFigures H-6 through H-8 and H-17 through H-19.LaSalle County Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateH-1KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table H-1. Percent of Sub-area Population Evacuating for Each RegionRegionwino uirection Toward:)uo-area1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 I 10 1 11 1 13 1 17N, NNE, NE,N/A ENE, E, ESE Refer to Region R01R04 SE, SSE, S 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20 20% 20%N/A SSW Refer to Region R02R2S NNW Z0% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%Wind Direction Sub-areaRegion Toward: 1 2 4 5 7 8 9 10 11 17R06 N 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%R07 NNE 20% 20% 20% 20% 0% 20%R08 NE, ENE 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%R09 E 20% 20% 20% 20% 2 %RIO ESE 20% 20 20% 20% 20% 20%R11 SE 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%R12 SSE 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%R13 S 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%R14 SSW 20% 20 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%R15 SW, WSW 20% 20 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%R16 W 20% 20 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%R17 WNW 20% 20 20% 20% 20% 20%R18 NW 0 2 20% 0 20% 20% 20% 20%R19 NNW 20% 20% 20% 0% 20% 20% 20%-.-**. ..FIR -It , 3Wind Direction Sub-areaRegion Toward: 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 13 17R20 5-Mile Ring 20% 20% 20%120%I 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%N, NNE, NE,N/A ENE, E, ESE Refer to Region R01R21 SE, SSE, S 20%A 20% 20% 20% 1 20% 1 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%N/A SSAAW Refer tn R.uinn R02!,.inWVSW, WSW, W,WNW, NW,NNW20%20%20%20%20%20% 20%20%20%R2220%20%L I l I I II 5puD-arealsJ Shelter-in-Piace Note: The entire city of Marseilles evacuates when either Sub-area 10 or Sub-area 11 evacuates.
LaSalle County Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateH-2KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 IFigure H-i. Region R01LaSalle County Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateH-3KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 0IFigure H-2. Region R02LaSalle County Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateH-4KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure H-3. Region R03H-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.La~alle LOUnty Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateH-5KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure H-4. Region R04LaSalle County Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateH-6KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure H-S. Region ROSLaSalle County Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateH-7KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure H-6. Region R06LaSalle County Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateH-8KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure H-7. Region R07LaSalle County Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateH-9KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure H-8. Region R08LaSalle County Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateH-10KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure H-9. Region R09LaSalle County Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateH-11KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure H-IO. Region RIOLaSalle County Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateH-12KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure H-11. Region R11LaSalle County Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateH-13KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 IFigure H-12. Region R12LaSalle County Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateH-14KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure H-13. Region R13LaSalle County Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateH-15KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 IFigure H-14. Region R14LaSalle County Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateH-16KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 0IFigure H-15. Region R15LaSalle County Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateH-17KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure H-16. Region R16LaSalle County Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateH-18KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure H-17. Region R17LaSalle County Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateH-19KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure H-18. Region R18LaSalle County Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateH-20KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure H-19. Region R19H-21 KLD Engineering, P.C.La~alle County Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateH-21KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure H-20. Region R20LaSalle County Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateH-22KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure H-21. Region R21LaSalle County Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateH-23KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure H-22. Region R22LaSalle County Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateH-24KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0