ML110030940

Exhibit Pwa 00008, Economic Consequences of a Rad/Nuc Attack: Cleanup Standards Significantly Affect Cost, Barbara Reichmuth, Steve Short, Tom Wood, Fred Rutz, Debbie Swartz, Pacific Northwest Laboratory, 2005

ML110030940
Person / Time
Site:	Pilgrim
Issue date:	04/28/2005
From:	Reichmuth B, Short S, Swartz D, Wood T Battelle Memorial Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
To:	Atomic Safety and Licensing Board Panel
SECY RAS
Shared Package
ML110030939	List: ML110030940 ML110030941 ML110030942 ML110030943 ML110030946 ML110030947 ML110600889 ML110600890 ML110600891 ML110600898 ML110600905 ML110600908
References
RAS 19374, 50-293-LR, ASLBP 06-848-02-LR, PWA 00008
Download: ML110030940 (24)

Text

PWAOOOOS Pilgrim LR Proceeding SO-293-LR, 06-S4S-02-LR Economic Consequences of a Rad/Nuc attack: Cleanup Standards Significantly Affect Cost Barbara Reichmuth. Steve Short. Tom Wood. Fred Rutz. Debbie Swartz. Pacific Northwest National laboratory. 2005- Lessons Learned

\' ng ogeo:ller. R & P~p& I HorreI3'ld Sec=uI1ty I ~1 2IXl5 1 606IDn. ~

kClnOlml~ eon. ....nce. of

• RedINuc A"'~k:

CINnut>> . . . .,da tlllniftenUy AIhc:t c..e

........ _ _ h 8 1. .... 8n..-1 r_ w_

_ N_ _ ."~" "'I' WartoJ ** Tog* ....., II...

.. hlpo I. _ . . . . . . .

D. " - - , , <<R&DI CO"If.,_

. . H . 2005, _ on, MA OVerview

• IfllIClIWICe EOOIICIltc ~ ;:vamtIoo

• EIr.lI allOIlOOl)'

• <lea'1~ S'~

B:onImc~

• CmClJSon

12006 1 Bo6IDn, ~

Why Evaluate Economic Consequences?

JorGer:

on~ or rnt I~ 15 ~ ;JeecteG a;ea?

ac:I0I'l5 I!eed to be tile ID prtlteCIIllle popul

• on .

Economic Evaluation Taxonomy

IEconol'n ic Consequence Callculation Methodo logy

• ~~~IIi>.rt~~~:51S:~l!Ii f(H!alrKlTll~

• F_~..en"' _ kdl r._ Yori. SIlJd)"

• Sr ..d3 NSIor: I..,3b. Ral1T1I'i1I1 V E mnlT"~ t Mode:t

• F'O Cll!i 00 ~ b'md ~ ,m! Oll2 [$:mlS):

• W!J "' olllf'J<AJ~1mme>rtlnll" ~

- looted e(ltll'1Orilc eftI!m or rmI

- LDz i3l'd dF"~ 'b ~ ~~

• Cl:1:ootlI"*'oI:on ..-.:Idec """" [CAO) <<<< ild udilg d ~

- EJi'KtDt'aI cmt

• ~ doK rd CIIII Ef1he un l;~ << all po66tJ1:! ecIIOXIic ~

• DMfSIy or rneteoroIogICaJ omiltlOO6 rDlevallill:<3d

• a ..,.."p/Ty.lc.>l ,~'" ,* .,..,me . -.r.eaJftlrdJlloronl II!C.>llca;

• FoWr; &31S11Ml)' ~ Of CIearu..fJ ~

1 __ a. ~ """ 1 * ---,-"" ,;r ~ 1 1 '-_ ._ _ ~_

~""' ''''' "SG Eco nollf1ic Consequence Criteria

~t~~~ : locations tram " oIa1ed rural to high d~n~';ty

e. R

• CIB1I!1i1m. SC

• DelmIt Mi

• san V5I1I1I, CA SIi' yen cny, NY I. E ",a l uat~ consequences "or 4 w~apon types:

• !J.7k lllJjearweapoo

• 1JU nlD1!ilrweapa1

• 1n<kT ItOOBlf w:~

• 1n. Ca-1J1 ROO I. E... a l u at~ 1i... ~ potential cl levels

Potential Ralilge of Cl eanllp G'Llidan ee f or a RadlNu c Event - ,Wh ic h One Do We Use?

lD11I1ft1"o'\'r _F11YSl:sliad!ll'_-' ............

t l r _ AdIan. FcboInlI" Radbloglall TmarIII EIIonr EP ,.,... rtt _ _ GUdosmd--...

AdGnsftlr NuDeIr-..... '4IJIH{-92-aJ~ ."

.. mrlllVe _ _ 1heftlSl ...l rxt_1Ic5mn*

EP ,.,... rtt_fdonGYdes _ _ _

AdansftlrNuDelr-...,*4IJIH{-92-1111. ,. __ _

... 1ntJe.....lrxt_2rem*

!fie _fllr_,o\gIiIIB-.*

~on..-d~~ l tmI..".~

... 5 mn/Jr C1DCFR211 ~c ,

Radioacliviity Decays Over Time

':l III j

~

'ILO I 0,1 1 10 100 Doc<t RlIIo ~

- ~.

4

Hypothetical 100 kT Plume Contours for 5 Clean up Lev,e,ls uenee Summary By Cleanup Level for IH ypothetical Weapon Events

' K~ r----------------------------------

1i:::: 1 II =7":;::~-Ii=::::~::::::::~~~

:1.~=1-~-I==t e

~ , ...... ii-_~i------i------j.i-----.....------;~

: ~~~~i;::;~~;;:;;:~~;:;~~:;:;;:~~

~.

5

~~I

=.r : iii:

~9 1 1 1 1 1 onsequence Summary - 13 kli a l i l l flli l i l

Con seq uence SummalY - 1110 kT in~ I-~~~~------------------~~~~

~Ifl~ r-~~--~--~~~__=~ ~-----------------

'~ I Ii I Ii 111"1; I I I

- '"=.

Conse,quence Summary - i ll kCi C5-1137 1,. ....",, 1

.. "-I)CII) 1--.:::-- - - - - - - - - ----1 1 10 1 . . - ---'-..::-

=-=-_~-_-_......."il 15-'11' 100"'-';'" I!UO ."_"

CIoin"",~

- ~.

7

Conclusions

• El:OncrnIc ~ Of a Rad.,}U: el.'l!I1la-e ~ depemlBll an E>ill~S3nlfi1l;

~ =

• =OO&';5~=~dlirnlllcall)' b"&amBSmae e3i1~ 00 tte a;t ~ wrent stn:Iard6 (no Il'I:t.Er 'Mlal allarget or we~ even'f) Im!J1I1I!6I1'1e ~ CI

• BeeaJse aD1 an el.'l!I1l COIle! pote:TUarf ~ 00Rtr.If

~. eo> _ an E!l/ert a"rEmalE' IOcaIIOII CCWI /1a'~ hUge

'lEI)'

1!CIlIlOfI1~ ~

• A I!'~ aw41ll3Ch 00 the cie'IeIDpreIll and appI'ca!oo Of clalIJP

~~

• PtlICf caI!oo6 or ou::n ad:e3i1~ ne£jj 00 lie e','aua1E!l

• a a:ea'1~ altEr III-eapoo. E!lEm II lie I/'aS11j1lI1TerEIl'! Cl2i1l1.11

- a Of ~ m~

f3:t ny Ill' tllmIerweapa1S pmdlEtloo B aCik -up SI ides

-- ~.

Economic Consequence Calculation Methodology Focu> CI11'tu tmld <:aIfgOII5 ~ 152005 .

• L065 ex pnxI.IC:1Mly gNll9' ragone

• NEt pe&e'1t allIl' { Of 1Dr.1 .l6WllI!d 10 be ~8

• OI.l6I16aJ1n r.u It 7%

• lO65.rd ~ 10 CIng ~ am WIdng Ibnage:

• ~ v'~ -arm and LnIiln area6 (S29M 10 ~M

RDD Yield -10 kCi (s-137 u ........

-

• lis 1" Conseque.nce Summary -11.7 kT 10

Consequence Summary - 13 kT Conseqluence Summal'Y - 100 kT 11

VlI:mng ~ R& P~p; I HIIm2I3n~ sewm:y I "~ 1 2006 1 Bo5IDn,. ~

PM\1.-SA-45 5l5, EOONOM[c CO~SEQUENCI1S. OF A R..IDl'IiUC .ATI.~CK: CLE..i\,WP SLi\,'mARJ)S SIGNIFICANlLY AITiEcr COST BariJara Rie:iC!hmuiD, SI!E1'e SoDl1t. TOI!l Wood!, F~ llllIlZ, ' ebb:: ScbmIl11z,

!>aciii!c L:orth.west NiIlio:nW. L<ibooltooy' 902, Bmeill.e BoUle\lill'd 1tich1md. WA 99354 gI1\'. ste\recsho -,. 'SOll, fuomas :r;,.- ood@pl!J,gI1\'.

_]IIll,§IW. mbie.scbmnz@Jlolgov

_~ST.RAC1' Property deS1ructimt.lo;s 01 ife. ,aDd ir!i!JIi.e.,; 5U;tadn~dI from ,a ow:1l!ar (If.ram ,ogi.cal. ' - ck M\'e 5' gp:i.fu:aot eooODltiC. C<lDSequen.ces, TIe ,0:;; of p-od'ncffioe as;:e1; ,cao.e:o<tend! for lOll.gpmoik iUld S'"..l!.im.te >i,gIIili~;mt eoolJlllll.ir 11;" ErOllOIlIlic :iJqIilCl> ca1l5~ by iIll f,\'mt lIfed to, be addre;sed :in 5!!que.otia order e~ v.1ith the de-Ilmtian. ,atlI:'4I5]lomc d:i;JlefiLoll!. aod!

de.post ' 0 of the ~ ut from the 1;\'eapoo. Wei1pOll dwaclellitk5p:roWle d);, bmmdary coorlmims for the re>poo;::. ~ d:Ooing ho'a' w.ge IDe .resp:)Jue areal.; iUld wl!al 5]lecific amon; ll.e;,d 10 be tUeo toproted the jIQJIll1ltiooin fu: taJ;~ aJrei1.. 'I':b>.5I! e::oooDlic coru;equen.c~. i\I'e hig;bl.y dependmt Oil th!! m!;gpirude of !he waJlo.l! event ,;md do I!Ot ;cale ill ,a l1neiur fallti.!lo.

The c.o;t 10 c1l!;mup or 1?.lIIl.e1ila -~ the ilIfrected area will depend Oil IDe m;mup ,tilDJiiu:d il.llpli:1i!

to the event iUld.is ILigfily sm.;: ' e 10 w.sfail!dard Cumml),. fu~ ,are 00 dea:nup 5 ;mdards sp;!cifiriill)' d:-' gn.ed f01 Rad. :ue terrmii;t f,\'m13" tlll.l ' is likely tha.I the _ ";tiJIg En\wlllL,;,n[ill Prol&tion Ag.:Jl.Cy (EPA) ,aDd Nud6!I Rie:gJillatmy Commi5s.ion sl;mdar.E wouldi ,apJlly de1iI.al0, The DeJl~Dt ofEll.erg)' (DOE) IiILs ;;pe,ot 0 'OIL; ru doJmi 00 5'11perfund c!!iiil!up..

lDll~r 'ille CoI!!!plEhm;.i\\2 E;n\~CIIllL,;,n[ill Rie:;Jlo.l!5e. Compm;iIlio.l! ,;md Ltl:biLit)' .Act (CERCL..lJ.)

,guid;mce. ill former r;l'e ~poDi !lroli:1lCMll ~. iUld the deaoup>B > e",'pend to conti.mJ.e thrOl@!

2035, 'Thi..; pa:pe! offer> ,ill! e CODIIll:k !l~ 00. the n:agoitude offue ,consec..ue.oIiei foo ,a s~, ~ da~. of 1lW"if-1S mille lililied Slates. with an e:o:.JI~si; 00. co.t sm;itMi}' iI.5 fue d eilllllp, st3a!dardl > c:l!ange;,

ThforRODUCTIO, '

The pr~ o~ ' IWdar ,ai:lild olllDe 'l!.ited S1lIre; V.Ti15 ooog th~ to>be r.estti:ct~ to,!he dol!lai.n of state a.dM5~ Fo~ov.ling the tmori;h!~-enl; (lf S.epli!!!ii.ber 11. 2001. a:c.d other IL'4Il'e recen.l lm orist acfuoit:i.es arolJIldille 1;\'orlrl!, con.c:eJlIl5 ilhout ' E:rl'e; oftemlr ' ttac::kB. in.dulfu!,g jlOt.mti.1 IJIdiologi.cal ,aDd 1lIXleil.r ,at1llci£;. fulve been IIlJI6llffied. The ~lighl ful; 51ilil~ to COUlll~..; lru!.t \l, > eEilll!r.reduce 1lh.e Ji};~00I! or red1lC,e d);, ,consec..ue.oIie, ob adEoJo.: .ill (lr nude.u {RlI Cue) terri! ' ;t iIl1lIcik, The d:dsi.o[J to, mvest io Rad.'l'\ue (0'llDtmr.~UIl!; (;ilI! be vfewOO a.; a tta.d!!offbe1l!.'eeI!

imre5lll:::n.I co;t ali' the CClUIl1l!Iineil5Ure ,;md fu: ,eOD5elJlJmcei afd);, f\~, 'Ibm ar.e 1Ioth

!lllysical COIL;eqll:n.c:es aod e::(l1lllIllk coo;equ:n.c:es tliat ll'OOlJd re>lll.I from 11 RlId!'Nu( event Ecoll.OllIlic :i.n:.Jlilc.l; ,=ed by an event. ,;md!he ;'lIb:;equen.l Je5]l0llSe 10 IDe f\'mt. neerl lo be addre;sed :in 5!!qn.e.cW order iUldb2gm mt:h!he phy;' ill impilcts 0: !he od:aonatiol!, illmospheric

V,'alf1"llJ ~ R 8. P~p; I HomeIa:1 8eoIJrtty I }!p112006 I Bc6IDr\. ~

ilNl'.1-SA-45 SIS, d5per,ian. ,m d d!!pOruiom of tDE fiillout frnm I!);, W8ilPOl!l, Ph)";' cat comeqtJl!ll.~ cOOtale the ll".3pon;:efunctionicd1l.diog tDe Ioog-mm deilllllJl' aM ;ire Il!51:0Ltti0n iliCriaC5lii1rem. 0D.e of the I:eClIIriI!.g il!.en:e; r, e~dinf: e\'l!ll.trespame is ihal there all! CUIIl!I!. ily 110 fedmt ;iimdMds Ibat OI\' ~ the lon.g- ' ;,rm 5i!e .restonttiOlll iI!Il.d mmup fOl!!lling ,~ l!ildi.o~gil:al. or impro\>is!!d! l!.ude.u d.e\oke (iNn) Ierrori..,1 ,m ci.

ThE co;ii to de;mup or r~te ~ ilfferud ilrea i; hi.-:ili.l)' ;;.ens:itive 10 tDE mm'!Ip ~1iID1ilud

, llP]~!!d! to the even.I. 'li'I)o..Ie iIre CiIllTelIll)*l!.o,dewru]) !.tallJi1!.r,dS sped' [ly de5igD9d fur RaiLNm:

lerron.,1: I!!."ellli hlIl it j; liikely thlIl tlu! eJilitiog EJto!;. aIllI NIl ;111~ mruld ~PJl !y d.ef.ld:o [1).

E Gen.eral Arc.OUDtin.g Offi~e (GAOo) reports ihal the amreIiI EPA and ! ;RC mmup ;:tiIlldiuds diffH i1DlI tDEle dlliferu!De. harve implicmollS fur hoth IbE :pa;oe i1DlI ra!t:iI!Ila.te ,COjl of c~ [1).

ThE iDep!libJlmto f E[J~(DOE) 1ia.s 5]leJl!b-JIiom of d moo superfund mmup ,atfom:::I wei!pOllS prodJI.ctiom ;lte; andth.e deilllllll' i; e~ertedllo cOlltirrue 1!brough 2035 [3]. fu 2003 rec~ !he impOJ1llllXle of thi; is;ue, I!);, Depilltmleot ofHoIJ:eliuui Secur.iIy (DES) liIs};ed iID iotl!Fa.§J!OCj' iI-orIctn.g group to,addre;s the i;>D.e 0: PrHcmve AcitOO[J G1i:d\>.Jine!; (p-o!tGs) for odiolo,,,- at cli;:persil d.e\~~. D;,) ,;md iIDpro\>is!!d! !lI.Jdeu d:evi~e (Il\ID) icddenl!l. DES anticipale5 ,~ dIlIfi oftha! ~oe to he is;u!!d! in the FWimJRJ1gistgr in Ulle of OO?

This Pi!pel' offa;; an eaJcomir p~ec.1ive om tlu! !I1lL&Iitw:lE 0'0' the coo.;;equ~ for selecled tafget;li\i,lIl ,lUI ,emphasis Oll CO&! ;:en;iti\~my a.lbe mmup i'IaIldiud chacg,es , ThE '1i\'1Ilik de5cribed proride; il fi!im;:i\fOn Within ilmicb the pEry;ial OIC5eqUence5 oJ a RadlNm: 1tKk can e lm1JEJiI1ed mto !he eaJllOll:.ic C(lmequenc:es en U , do s.. These e-ffe.:iI> need 10 he 1I1Dw;toodi ie 0J'd.er to pre;;crib.;, '~l1.J1ropriMe ,conctem:ea>UIl!; ,;md policy ren:eID!!"

.A M:E4fEOI)OI!OGY FOR ECONOMIC CO~SEQli1ENCE CALCULoiTIOoNS For Ibis S1!Jdly, "RIIlffN1Lc~ >p= a ~e ofp!l6;;ible!ll.JClear weillOll5 ami o[Je ilIge radiQlogir d5per,ion ~\~.e:

• I), k cudei!r il1filPOll

• WOkI' [lllmar 'Ii\' e~po[J

• 13kI'n1Laear'Ii\'eilpllD

• 10 kG Cs-13 IUID Fi.ve Po!l!ll.1ial.lilFgffi 'IIeIl! seJ.~ted IilDgin.g from an iso ~ted .1T1IllI ,ma lo vey 1Ii,;b ,liens:ily uro~D area" ._ID 0:0 the fo!lowing tafgffi ill!! located on U,S, &rdf!£!i ill!.iL'Or Poo;; ofEDtty mto the UDir!!d! States:

• Llllml1 AZ

• San Ysidro., -PI.

• CtwlP.3ton, S

• Ne",' Y~ City, NY

• D"troit. Mli E' 'onola)' of locatio:m, li\'eilPOl!l }'il! ,m d COll1lLDlirI!:a.1iOD 'contom; wa.; jlirnlmnmed! and fed ioto !he Niltiomal AiJI:ll!ipheric Re::ea;>;! Ad\>isooy Center 0--lMtA Model to i&~J.ate It!:

pEry;ical OImequ~e5 , Gc!E:equmo;,; vaJ}' b&;ed 1IpQ1I.E>'1llI:.Jltion.; * 'iKt!J] '1i\'heJ;e tDe po]lUlatiOIl is ,at tlu! tiIJ:~oftlu! attad I 01Ml!\';;, murk, mdooos"'i.o'!1LdOWj.). oc *Ii\'! at me,1EOW,o,gj.cal OI[J.iUtions are a.;SUIlled. iI!Il.d ollibE PIlln:pt ver;;u; :f.l~DlIl mea; ofl!);, ~Il, 'Those a.;SUIllllti.OllS are das;;ifted and coi disru;;ed ie.ill;. ~per, 2

v.'cmng ~er: R& PatrEruf~ 1 HnmeIa:ld 8e::llrtty I " 12006 1 BOODn. ~

!lm..1.-SA-45 56, Our foru;.llmra'a; primarily olll!De ecOll.ClmEt (0ll5I!1t'Il,erme; of a mldeiUT \\"ei!pOO iIttld;; the impart; 0:0iID !WD ,m 5til.l1Ull.def iovestiga ' 110 iIDJI mu merit fw1tI:ler .resem-cb, 1,1; e!1pOIl cilwi!.cleri.;tiGi, iIl.dJ.JlmL;!l!.e t}p;! ofw&JIOlli. the qtJl!II.tifj" ofIOMerW. i1DlI hCIW the db-per,jon is atlliei'ed. prO'i.ti.de lI!.e boundary 'COlllfiti.OID for !l!.e reE.)l()J]5e in.cllldEng 001\" [D.1Jth area ' . impaaed iIllli wiha! ,action.; !lnd! ro,be taken to protect ID.mam heaili:h i!lld.the en\wl!lI:.,;nI, Theph)';.ir 't()J]52Itueor,e; ,ci:em;ed from W!;1JIDIl dwi!.c"eri.;tiG 'ra-ere lh£D med to ,tilkill!ll.le cCO!looric.ClImequences mfi\1;! brood ca1egol!ie; of cost:

I. 1.o~; Clf !lrod'w:ti.W y from eilDliDgs forgoo.e lD:lirKt eronomi.c meet:; or "li:1l..l'1iplier-

3. 1.05; amd damage ro,'buiJdiJ!;; ~ i1DrlI lbuiJJi:ing ClI~

4. Dl;!coDt.a.n:.ll!Jltioni!lld.d:eCll!lllDi;5" !li.m!;ref:em!rl toa.;.deilJJll w;t

5. E\lilCiWltiolll ClIot *

• The;e ,erolla!I:k ClI!l2lqumces iIld"lllilI\g Ibe (a;1iIDJI mne to d i!\lllup frolil tlu! eVi!!lt .m ru,ghl)'

depmde!lt 4111 the 1nligp:i1Ude of ll!.e wa]lon e'I."elIl .illld do not ;ale m,a WJeiUT wllion, The cOIl.5etl,"lLerme; of,a !llI.Clem- I!.eapoo iEtolllltOOo are e;lima1erll ro,!lave both s ',gnifitilDt 10;5 oJ 1D.mam .' e iIDJI 5!.lb.;laaItW cleilllllp iIDJI ret:On5trurtiOIl ClIsn;. A!Li;ll ~~ of outrig;b.l de5ttTnrtiOlll of !lropelily (OOilldicg;. !I11blicinfrastrutt'llIe. ,andpmihx:m..e ,t apia! equ.ipm.e!lt of all sorts) 'raill OCClDl" du.e ro,II!.e ,lIetOllJlli.oI!1. In@!tE&. the cCOoomEt (O;t oJ W, t}p;! of.Lo;s. i5 jl.1;t IJ:e l410t !lro d1u:ti\~ of lbe capitiU (uJI:indiDg h1ll1lWJ -capital) d.e.;tro)"ed In it lOllIket eCllOOm)', iI is ,a .rea;OJIJIb!ei!.p!lrollfrmlltiOll to u:.;e mu!E,t '\'al1ll!S .a;; ,a 5UIJOg,ate for Ibe '\-arue of tl!i;;

!Iroli.Urtion.

The ecOll.O . .aed iP5)'cbo:;ocia:l effeds of an RDD . 1W:k ' e ~d. ro, !be more sigcmrant IfIm Ibe po!mlW 10.is ofh=1ife am.dbu.il.dEn;g ~;trumoo [4]. lllllle evmt ODa radfoJogfcal db-per,j.OIl eveot. there is a set of'l!Conomic cowoquenc,e; @!ll.erMedas a re5!Jlt ali tl!.e ,evenl .illld ill Selof'I!COIlomic consequmceslDa.tisindepend=nl oftheJragni,1Udeohtilloologfca ~

becau;e ofpubJ.! ~o[J .about IJ:e q&> .a;socialeJI mth RD[) ;..

In order 10, dem"e 00!l2lqUf!ll(P- e;;tim~~, an ecooomic eva:.'rlilti41!l tilIN.onomy wa.; e; 'blisl!.ed 10 de!eI:nnin.e"\\tf:at jloteotia:! ur,;e'; amd Ci.eill!:!1p L. e.5 solllild!be EoVilrnateJI for !De fu'e lI!;oad.

G l%"'Ories of'l!Conomic consequf!ll(P-;"

The .respoJlae!; ro' mocleiUT weIl.J101l eveo1!; CiID "beiliou,gb.l of a.; pl!a;es: 1) tlu! initial erner~ocy

[e.,-pon;e ,and evaruatillll" J IDe iniermediateEo!5pOme wlim mo,t en:er;eocie; m\1;! be>.lI han~eJI and II!.e footl!l ;hl.,Fts to deilllll]l'. ,illld.l ) the deilllll]l' iPl!a;e "\\tlimlKO\-a:y i!lld. milll1Ip

'on; .m de~ "0 reli.U~e .r . 'on .1!1;"?js in order for Wid'buildEng; to be re-med or

[~iDIllIbe!ed, OurprilllaIY focu; is on jilis.;e 3. The deilllllJl' ClI;t for an aIeiI :i.5 Ilighl)' de]leodem on lI!.e deilJJll]l' ~ 1I1Sed. the deilIlllJl' rI!CIlnoLo~ =]1. 'ed. i1DrlIllie ndiologi.cal (i1nd o1h.er safet}')

ClIoliXions underra'l!:th d&nup is oron.duti1ed, Decoll.1iIlIWw.tio!l ,effort; willind"lLde d eillliIL,; or SilDlibl&;ti!lg IDe menOI or ,eolI:Jl.eteJ.y ,lIemo!i5hing a!ferted buil.cItngi, safe!}' dispo~ of g.eol!r.1ted odiOilCJlive "\\raste. dec41ctudmling the 'emergenq' \'W ~ ; lI1SeJI iII the re;ponse aed 3

ViCrtng ~ R & p~ In HomeI1rId SecUI1tyI 2IXl6 1 Bo61XJr'1.~

PN:\1-SA-45 5~

retcwelJ process.. aDd =y olber aaivml!5. Th~e effOIti aIoJ:~ co:Ud cost billior.; of dolW:i

.mil we decades 10 accompliih. dep!l:dmg 011 th! maFJde of !he ra.dJo.ogiai WeD! and the c.leamrJ> ~ eIr.p.O)'@d.

BeCilU.ie 0: 0Ul' ilIIere;t in th! iu:parn of d.eamrp 1e\'e1; or.lhe co>!. we coO>tdered a nm. ~e of pot!DDa d.emup le\'eli from eJilici:Jg 5llIIldard> ilIld protective action gu;deJioe.; that mi,gbI a.imlatel}' app 10 a temn:iit attack ~ ), lbi; [a:;;ocomy I\';li lIpJl:ied to all fu'e potential targm for Ih~ plIJlOse ofpro\~ a cOllieq1l!!llCe \'1I~OO melhodo OE)'. On scale ofmon coosen-.uin olern COO5en'iltin, th! En\'iIoDIJ:l!J:ta ProtecriOil Ageocy A) .iWllIani gO\~ C~ilIl1lp at sit6 v.ilh radioactWe contamination IeJRieD!S Ill! U:05t cOQ;er\'iltin .~

!ha[ we eva.J ll!d The Clll!I!.t 0 : d:ls pape! 'a'l\; [0 ;meiS che SemftMly. IlOl [0 de!mr.ine I\'h:ch clwmp suru.:Iard. is be;t, Fi~lIn 1. C1eaoup Levels EvaJua::d fOI Ecooomi!: Comequence5 There are a 3rge 1!I.m100 of ecanomic .Wbl.e.i iliat could PO'enria.IlY be iI:.cluded iI: lhe caJcuLmoc of ilqlam, Th~e ilx.lude pi)uologil: iIqJaCli ilIld .o~term ;ocie1al iu:pilCl5 of lrvug w:.du end"Jru!.g beigtneoed ;eou!!}' co!!diOOD>. Our imem 1Ri to l!-wumfy lbo-X! elellll!DlS we beli£\'ed were mOil repre;emam-e of tbi.i tnle 0: emlrut Rack. A discu;,ioJ: of !hose fiw vmables rolJow.,

Loss of Proda, tmfy frOIll E.anWt~ F O~OIl!

To Ultula[1! !he Io;s of 1L'JlllaIl capita. <he 10 dB1lh rrOlll a ,,'eapoo 1!\'1!I!.l. we llSed a "1if!~

em::ugs lOii ~ lI:eIbodOUtiioed in a mclyb)' the Federal RP..iI!I\'I! Back ofNI!';I' Yon [5] 1'hl; u:e1hod estilll.lm ioli.iridlIaJ KOllO:mC JoSsei by l!5tiIJ:.ltfnga woIker's oIllIllIall!i1llliJlgs over bi; or her I~ wor!riog lifetime.. The e"ilI:.md earning,; .ue cheo disCO'lDl.led to lI!e C1Ilm!I tDJ:e period (r.et preset.! \'we) U>in.g di.;cOUI!l fitaor of 7':; , wbich Ii th! OMS Bll! 0 li&01l!ll lV-tiIm ~ 10il aDd indus ";ocW faa 10 KCOUlII fllI !he OIher iocie1lllloi5e5 tlw re.-ull froc prem.mIre deltb. E aIlle. Ihe mm:lJer of affected wari;u; Ii lied o !he geogJapbic

> e of the a'eD!,

V,'crII[ng Toge:net: R & P~p; I HOO1E!laml8e::lJ1fty IJoplll 2006 I BOODn. ~

!IN!\1.AiA-45 56, mdir,ed Economic I.ffeds 'D r "MIiliiJl~r" Th&l!Qill be ":imtirecf ' ec01l.l1l:niC Empilro ,a;:;odal~ with fit,;, cOOl5eltlll!OOe; of iIIll1lC.ell!" or IaidioJo,,: ell iIItt~ck. For eNiIIllple. ':um:g!h.e d.emCliJlIWIamoo proce;5., blilldiJlE:5 ic the alEcr.e.i iIll!aQ'ooi!d IllItbe fi.mdioccll. !:le;idem;:Q'OOIJd 114\,= 00' be relocate:!. Bu;me;;e;, v;~ dlillw e [0 do the same or simp.. h.a1t thee: .acti\<irie:;.1lIl1i1 complelioo of the c1Ecomilll!liMtion. epa1diJlg 00 the IIlll1Ire ofilu;me;s cm.d!J:aJ!d inside tho;e buil.ii.Iog>. fit,;, I1!e;io:rutl ilDlIlllllioccll ecOllllIDY coUld 'be oeg;a.livejy impacte:i."t re5!l!till.g ~e in Ifle lIl"!!a', I1!! e;tate pIke; , .ouru.m. ilDdI commen::ial tL;ms~ctions couldl Mve lDng'tem:J Il.e~\'e effero on Ib.e .ar~' ; ecOllllIDy.

Th&l! are ;e\'eru !!COMmie method);Q'hereu)' -cvillipli.ecs" are applied to,fit,;, ,e;:tiJDarui di.recr com .ost :iIu:0lI:::) 00' e".iticmlE the :illli.'irecllKollm iIJ:.pa()!,. The;e 1.1irluP..; u:ay be e,1iLruJ.[~ 00 If!: bil;:, ofinfoma *co abOltt the catnlr!! of lf!: .ilfffecl~ lillii!!.e;se5 :in !h.e r:;ponse .ara ThI!

in.:fuKt :i.JqJaCl; v; be ge,rif Ifle CJaJ!liet;.for directly ,i lifmed secIIU".i. are beyond,the locell ecoODmi.Carilil. In e".iSeIl.Ce, these sec:to.rs are -~' driveo, If these settlir5 .are oolOllgH al!1Yo!o' ~ to,operate, theo the implct5Qill be ;e\'ere becau;e ;upJlDllIm;; bu:iines;e; in Ifle !oeal iIll!aQill be forced 10 ;cal!! bad. 1;); e deriJ.Ted mlll.1!j!!iH".i. from fit,;, FR.!3.l'Y '! Ill 1 m.dy [5] a.;.

fofuws:

• lAiw impa.cr 5~emrio (10 ~Ci 5*13 RDD, .aIld II. iT IIJJdSl! m;ap:>1l) - 46% oflo >!

eami:ng;

• Hi~ impact ;cenmD (BltT;md 1001 IlUdeu Wo:ap11Il) - 82% of.lo ;t ~;

Dffo'lIta.minfi Oll :md Demlllllllissillllillg or OJUIIIIJI Cost CleilJlllp' iIllII I1!;,toration 0:buildm:,;5 ,aIld aIld afur RlI '*.w: e\o--eJJt will be c.omqilitated Iby the need '0 decoll1arnmalE ~nrl!. PIKI!IlIBIl * ,den: !i.;lI rali1olog;iL~i!l)' co1!laminal~ buil.ii.Iogs ilDm liIDdi.

Th~ c.o~ oi !hi. ci.eamJ.p' v; be ItigbJy d.epen.derrt 00 !he iIll!eIl e~mt or eamIp. v;m.icb. ill 1ImI.

is higbJy d.epl!lldem 00.!h.e If\'el of e1eimup' require:!. Th.e cost of deilDllp oJ iID:f gffi!ll area will ile d.epl!lldi!ct 00 the!!!lalive L~ oJ 1!C0000mir d;,.e~llI.eIlt<< f =dal m\'e,:tI!l.ent IIlat has be£!] Illild~ ill Ifl~ lIl"!!iII of,concem, Th~ approa.cb tdm ill Ibis stud:YQ'a; 1:0 d~OJl' mril co~

fa.ctor;; ($'lim') for the deilDllP' oJ iII'e\l,c; having dm&l!ct le\",1s oipopuliltioll deJEity; pllplIDi1Iion d.enmy b eing llied.as ,a 51m.ogate for ,economic. ' ctil.ity. .eilI!.1!p 0[0.;1da1a. p!Uml!l"il)' o[ iIllJ.e from itril"rlJisource.;:

• Th.e eooomtic.IJ:.(Idel provid;,m ill; a 'cOIJ:.piIDioll to,the FL.WTRAN 5 co:mp1l!".Ip!'o§;u1Iu

,dwe::oped :or ,mM)'**s oftb~ COllil!queLloe, .ilI!.-d ri;;k~ ofradioatti\,= I!Illlle:rtlil

~on (5ee bnp:{fttd.silI!.dia . go\\~!i!.kIradlrm.l!rm) . [6] 1'hl; ecooo:u:.i.c IJ:.(Id;il was Milly dwe,.'oped! to,estimJJle !h.e ecooo:u:.i.c coo;equenc:es offplutonillID-IfupeF5e1l

.accid.;,nt;.

Th.e FR1!NY stady of If!: ecQI!.Omi.c ,e!fecl. of If!: 9l!ll:eJ!I'Offil .atta.c1: OIl Nell' Yook Ity.

"j{Q!llrni1lg lilt; F,ff<<lHd'lk~ !jqptmJlbu 11 Amrc.b m N"", I'w:i1 , . * [5J.

RIIDl'RA!1 . 5' , eOOlJl.ilci.oll erOllomk IJ:(Idel ict11Lde.> e;tiu:ated UJili eosts (S,ilI;m") for:

en:~enq' ,acl:i.olli (e!! i!pp~ fixatiw,; ) fo!low:il!.,g fit,;, '1!!.--enI; iIIC!~e;s c0Il1I'Ol (e.g.. ,g:wa:d5) 0

!1['e,'I'l!Ilt una1lihori:zed iICOI!3!i [0 Ifle COIl1:imJ£na[ed! .areas; 1ildio.1lIgial C!IwilCJ~tfDn.;

dec.olltalllina.liOIl'demJOlmoc op2!ilmoc;; ilDli ,Ii1;;po. oli ndiOloe;iciilly cOll1il.!:n.iru!.lEd wa.; le.

The;e , e1e,:u:.~ v;rece 5!.I1!1ID1ed lDgetb.er 10 oiJtaic the,tOllll co ~ o

• CJ:eilI!.1!p .aIld sill! r:;lDranoc.

5

RJ/Dl'RAJl " 5 '\~. th~ co;1!i 'c!e]lelll!:ing Oil wlie!h.;,r 'IDe area i;.lIIl UIban iII'ea tIllt i..;. !igh~ly colJllUJ:.inated, lLodemel)' (OJLImIinalell. or havil)' cOlltullmafi!!l or wiu!1he!" /be areilis fium or range !md. T!h.e mW ,e03!' from 'IDe !!LOllllmfr 1IlO1IPJ. a>sumiI!.g 1I::I5ile dispo5!l ofBdioo.Cilive

\\~. ,a!'e~inTa:b"e ! .

Tablel. S = "of Unit Co;1!i for D& . BlIi!!m!!'llBo~t. and. EviliClllafi.olDValua "on MiD tim,Co..

PHbit' AJ-1I'Ea.1 Ib Cl:ll1bmir.d:il tn:ZI h.aM~ " ~lZI

~urk:albn.so EIJ~,2

=- A]-11 I"" III mca _, F21::z::a C'Jaramnalcd Uri:.:. pe.d::r 1ft .. SO~I2\nI':l .m:a.l r.::a rh.D 3J)XI iJEilflCllnJ':I .a:z:d " . OF pCIIII::r duII'11 011a tranoJid:: lb ll1l::ftI.IgroJ ~~ Th is Ic:w:II ~

~lUUtioa &:l lTa:dL r.J. ' l::¥C:wa.aI.Zl.&)

a.u::aJ 'f1cpUfaty .-.d LC. ItADliRAN' .!i ......... 'i.&.d

~ nab IiId .... Orn . .. . td Ilftldu ftl:an

• ok...t1Wd . - , ...",..... 100 .....

TIle LIrbi1.n ill"ea UMn 'L\tfricb the R.Wl'R.i\N 5 !!LOIlOmOC I!!lwl derives i1!i un.Ft deiullm (0;1!i i;.

<!<;5IIID.OO [ 0 have in aVl!rne;eM:J1LllltiolD dem.ity 0: 1,344pl!oJu15m' . 1'!Illi j; ~..rnru)' 11l'R'er IfIm high dm.it)' l!!l.etropoIrnm iIJ"eil;; su.dl as" "m Yoit C" ', \\rudl IDs iIJl itvm,gfpoJliJlatim

~ 01 OeI' 20,OOOpl!llJl"eJ1Im:' . F'()I thi;. !e,;Ol!!, the IWliI co;!; dmI;ed from R.MITR.A!" 5

\\rere not eoccilf.;,r,ed 10 .to;, , ~ §ood estmmate for 'ID!! c.e~Cl\P oii'hjgh.er dl;~ !IOJ1tiLitioll areiIS .

To estmmate tIu! impad5 001 N!!>I' YOB Cify'. ,~pro,;y for hi$ d!!I:Gitywba.n ~ 'L\1il5 deivi!!l from /be FRBNY ;100)', [5] \\tfridlre.pDliIl!d , ~\' aJ.1Le oU15l!illillc to di!ac u]I' iIlld.restOIl! the l iS-,~CIl! Ulorld TBIie Gente!!' >ite me!!' II);, terromt attad_ ThB eaullle; 10 S24 billiolll'ikm' iII 2005 dD41us" Thi.; is ,ai!n::O!.1: m'OQfd!!rs ofl!!ll!g;nitud.e ~te!!' Ihaii /bl! il.<IDTIlW 5*erollOldc.

lLod!!l unit Cll;t for di!il!llIp 0'.1 a he,wily ,eomaminated UIb;m im!a . Funh.;g"IJ:ooe. the eClot of dearru.]I 01 theWTC sill! 'LI'D11!!lIllDlloubteri..1y Ibwl! been.I!!l.1.x:h b.i¢er hlIlI it bem diE!;tnlJell by a RalflNlIC.e\II!!It. OIIlD!! o'IDerlland.'ID~ 1.\ me :is CDt .r!!p:reseonlirtili'eofNe'LITYorli.Ci*. in

,genmd or ,m y otlleJr ICajorpCIpulM:i.OIl cenler iIl'IDe-:n.ited S1illI!; e.:: lli2 oftlu! mLi.qae iIlldv~

hig!n *we buildEng5 IhlIt ;rood! on 1hE me. Tilting 'lDe;:e in:jK\l1aJll poinI> into (OI!5id!!ratiol!!,

Ibis FRBNY mta \\1;15 u;ed to dem"e 'lD1! UIrit deilJlup cost; for the hi~ a.nrl! ""eI)' hi~ O>-I!5i Wbanim!a>~rtedlin Tab_e I .

HIIID2Ia:1~ SEWnty I Pj:l1 12006 1 EICIGIlIn. ~

~"I.-SA-45 5(;,

Loss ;lD.d Da:lII!Ige 10 llaiHillg Sl[ll~.

The (o;ii; to .replace ,i\D.<l1<< r,ebuildl prop:rty dama~ ar destroyed a,;. the Il!;1I!! . of a RJidll :uc went, or to' c.omJP"ll5ate OWller. fur lIe ~5' of ose of thi.;, jlropilly (mduding OOJsiDe;;; - CWle 10';5). 1I1~ i!lso Glilc!itited.u;m;;un.it ,ro,"1; demed. from the R.>IDTR..4N 5 c.mmp.!lIion eclloolllir lI:.odlil aI!.jj. the ~"Y 9 1 stua,y _As.lItfth ;,ire CLi\D.lIp ,i\D.jj. re,;oorn1io1l, the;!! CII;15 ,are rughl)'

depmdent oe the areal eJ<1~t mJi 1eve of 'r~ti.OIL TIieseun.it 'rO'.;(;,are ,a -0 pre;e;uted m Thb~ L The llIlit cost; fur . $.1iIy. lIl!Iduati!l)'. md.ha."ily co!l!a!Jiinated.uIibm.aI'!!ia<;' anJi for :fmn and Wl6e i\D.jj.1;!o'ell! derived from.the R.>IDTIL~ :5 e.::.ollomic molihl AgailI. for th!! rea.;ans jlre5~te d pre\!fo1Lil),. the UDit (0)1!i deJi\'ed! from 1be !U\DliRJiN 5 econolllli.c model were llOl co!l3il!eredllo be ,a goodeillmllte of lbe co;t 0 r,e1rnild hi:h !lop!iLl.t~lD d:nsity ,m as ,mer II RardlNu( went The UDit (0;15 for these ,ilTh1.S *il'ell! derived.from the FRBNY !l.n 1 ;,ill!!)*.

The fiRiBNY '~fl l 5!1J.dy r,eported iI wlua of ; 11..9 billio.c to rep ar'e the ~ mil Cllntent; IIii' lIe 'W I COOI.]ll ' 'l!It'lL1Iing 1'0 S193 billio[],ll m' iIl20115 dolW:; (mTil'hirh dtJes lllll incDude ibU;m..~ 5 income. 5;). This i.;. i!lmo:;l three ord!!rs of 1!!1lI§;Il! I!e gIel.t el' fu.m lIe R.ID'IR.Ul 5 ecooon:.ic.ll:.(ldelllIli.t (o.t fClr rep~t of de;:troyedproperty in ,a IIU\'iDy cootalI:i!l.aredumm area llN.m,g iIll avense pOpulaD.on ~ of 1.344 peopl lm' . As di;ru;sed! jlre'lti.ou;

• hOII.-

Wei'. the 1;I;'TC site i; !lOt repres~1l1.ti\'e of L*ew Yolk Ci ' in g~er.at or m)' o1ber mlljor papwa-liDe cmter ic the Ucited S les bl!(;au;e 0: lILe umque mil veFY hi,gh \Calue bnildicg,; /hat :;tood oc Ibis site mil wfIiclITilil! be Ii!plac.ed with ,1!It'!Lall)' h.ieh \Iirlue buililings. Thf .re~n' 1il1l.e reported iIl1be liRBNY study i; Ibell!ror,e !!ii1lily [0 be mw::ih!:ri.,gher than TiI'ouldbe ~ed for lIea\"er.lgehigihdec;*

• ummilJ'e'A. 1i'iikinglhi;importmIpomt mto 'ronsideratian.1be IlRBNY data 'TiI'ell! u;ed to deriY;e the IIIliI dElilllllp (ost,; fur higb ,i\D.d veF)' m;;h demity m:ban iIJ,ea, reported m L 1.

E"(II3ofiO'Ii ellIS.'

The co;ii to evacuate ,i\D.d relo~ate 1be poj!UlaDollJ .* ~ lIIi1bic ilTh1.S co:n.1iIIlliIlateli: ,a;, ,a .resu1I of lIe Rad,. ~uc ~TililI, calcililaledu;m;; 1.IIrit ,eo.;t:; derWed from the RADTR.4N j e.::o:n.lIlllir lI:.odlil. This (051 i.;. a,;;11IJled -0 depmjj. Oil th!! .1!1.'i!l of coll1a!l!in.aooc' ill: ru,gjler c.o:n.1iIIlliIlatioc.

1~\'eJ.;. lIe popuJation is denied! r'Qe;;; fur long~peJiori:; off time.. ~ 5 *...mes these CClst5 in Ibe 5iUlIIf !lliljor (ategori:e; as* th~ D&D a.n.d R£plac=~ CO;ii;. -:n.u cO'.;t; IL5edl for evacurn.ol! ar,epr,e;e;uted in T' h.e I..

OBSER\'ATIONS FRO),! ._tl'PUCATION OF THIS !IETBOOOLOGY The ~ ofll1Jdear'TiI'eOlIpOlli ~ bee1l5rudiM anJi dOC= ~teli:iJUensivlily_ Fa!i.out 1;!oill dec.a)' ba>ed 011 the in.di. -lfulili;o.top:c balf-live5. the moil ' ~erge!ic (i\D.d lI:.ost diIOgeIou;)

de.::l!)1ng :in DII11l!i or ,clays willie loll~~\'ed!is01OJles pmi;t for lI:.octfl5 and.J em. The ,close Iille from faI!01I! ~p.;. iI}' II faotor of 1.000 4:£ hours.aftEr deOO!l.ation. and 0= '!Ioil'~ of the d,l)ie isIl!c~diIllbe fu;t Jeari1funll1JdeuweapollJ~ [ , This oose .rupoc;eli:!I:e after detooati.on is ilqIortaJIt when ,estmaatill,g Ihe ,Qool ofdemup. ;ire Il!S1OIl1tion. ,i\D.jj. rebui!d a'~r ,a RardlN'!L( went Fig;are 2 illu:;- bO; thi; 1:1)' showing IIeLrnd iIIl!il [e~ deilOUp' fur differeIII c1ell!ruP' critoo..J:ia (J,e~I!1li1lIJ.'o5 e me;) fl!!' dilfferertt Ifn:.~ peTioli,; ful101lTin,g dftCllDtfon of i1 1];*k,],

IlUdear W&]I01lL _'!J.; sD01IIll, the ;uruc.e i!J:ea .requlring dElilllllp de.::1:eaiie5 by fllroor of 10 to, 100 during 1be sl!tond year fuM TililIf; detom1ioe ,ilS ,ron:.]lilre<i'Tilifu the fur )1!!r fuowin,g

I'ltmlg 0!je7lel: R & PaJ1Il".J1;tq:6 1 Hameia'ld Serutty I ~1 2005 1 1lO61Dn, ~

Pm.1.-SA45  ;~

001 01 Ie ' 00 FJt1In _>\rea Requiri~ ~at:on for Differ!ll.1 arr.lp Cri~

d.etooatiOll S~e cle!IWj) vro1l.!d likely 1:0 be cOlqI_eted duricg the fir51 year foUowmg d.etooatiOll tbi; analy>i:; estimarcd me ~031 of c.;eml"lp of thai LInd iU'e>l remaioi.ng cOlllmlina ed

'DOW !he =1Ip criteria 'eM ilfter delo t:on.

In the ase of the RDD e\'!ll.1. how!\'K, lmle radiO!ctWi' d~y II occur cIw:ing the 1iII:.e pmod ofll!ll:.ed:iatian (firstyear<< 19.0), For ihisreasoo. 1b! CO;I of cl~of an RD e\'!ll.1 'as ased 00 the laod ~CIllWJ:ioated by fiillCTJl 0Ire! me 1m1 year foUowmg tile !\'eIIl.

We !bell look tile pby;K.lll'lume contour:; f<< each of me chre£ 1IIl&.ar We1jKlt: )' elds md me

.fi\'e c.;eat::Ip lenJs and plooM tho;e in the fu'e w,get loGluon; FtgUf! 3 males ChIs coocept wub the plume l-_}T COlllO'UC for !be lOO-kTauclearW!i1pOll m Nea' 'on. , NY, aDd Ysidro. c.~,

Figure 3, Hypothetical J1Jmu ContOur. for l()().1T ilDli 5 Qe.mul' ~

The plume COILTl7JfS used represl!ll.l a gEllm~ "wiD:! COD ' rion.- C,earl '. wu:d coMiI:oos impact the radioactin fallou1 a.fi!r a Cl~....lf ll'i'apOIL I!\'alI and me abiliry to \ e damag!! de:pEOd; OIL where the lLlma,ge occur;_ The p~ in NI!' ' Yolk C ty blow; illlo tile Adantic Ocean: although not depic1ed h<>..re, tl:.e phm:;e for Detroit soe; c:£o Cauda and l..ake Erie, For tbi; higb-~\'el 8

vtcmng oge~ R& P~p; I H~II5e::lJJtty "'~1 2000 I IIIDIimI1. ~

Pm\1.,-SA-45 56, ana2ysi;. our dm!a~ ,m e5;JL=n.I i; lilI:iIed to the co!lliI!.enal UDilM States aDd [e]l£!"".>I!Il.15 mrume i1Iei d e;urup ,el:l:~ gID1IIl.d,nteJ ,cOIIlalI:ll!atiooL TheresWt;,oi' our ,1IIl>!ilysi; iII,e mown iII Fi~ 4. A; .m ' ip~te.i. 1be e:olOO ' COll5el[n.eoDe; are hi~"1 for 1be ilIY'..i1I!.uCJ:eIl1"*".. e;lJl'Oc }~~ amd !h.e n:D>I (OIE"JVil.tiVl! cl!!amlp L. l. Nev.r YoIi ",' I!.eE the !Ji.gj);,lii e:OIlOmi dmlJIge .moos the deilllllJl' 5pi!druI!!l. be:all.."!! ofn5,rieme popu1a ' C acdhigb ,,'al:nE ,rea1e,;tate. Ko!e that !he 'I!toncmi.::.coc.;eqtP.JlC.e; for 'ewYolik C-aaOSi .WI:051 eve£)' mm1Ip le\l1 !Ilel!' <:11 e1iCleed llli trillioll, *r;\*hi.dli; roqglll}' equiY;al.eot 10 the aIIIlILllGro:;,s Domest:ir Prodll.CI (GOp) of1be j *.S, H OD.OI!lj".

m,n,' , - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

~ aD ~------~--------------------------------~ __ =_

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Figun 4. C<OllSel(llmce SIlImlMY roo HypoIhe1iGti We!1pOn E ;em; iIll.d em1Ip Levlli

~9IJi"e; :5, 6,. amd .rl!pn.;enJ the coc;equeru::e s~ fur >.'adIlllJdeu W&JIOll e\7~ 'Fb2 ilIea _md .md ["<luiril!.g long-rum d e;urup is i1 fillx;tion oli the slmdard ;;oJ:ected .a5 re]1rl!'.iI!I!.ted, En If!;, ,data I!b~ UDder the graph. Icli5!;;irl:uilly acdl , rollecm~ly. the ecooon:ic coc;equ.=s are hlg;he5t fur II);, lll.osl COll5.I!IW ' ;e stmdilrd e\*illu;ned.

Figure g jlrovid:, ' '1IlllJlW)' oli the ,l!toIllllllic COIl.>eC[lP.JlC.es by 1be :f!w hnlad ,r,a-egorie; eva:iua1l!d ThiHl!pn.;enJiltfon dl!lllol!5tti1tes tlW : :i; 1be mamlp c.olii (or ( OSI) tlWi; fue m,§;e. t indivMilill conlritrnlOI to e:Oll.omic COll5l!1[uelJDe; acmss the dei1llllp eT;el sp:drum 1lD.1il we read! IDe .* ait cOJUm' m.~ d e;urup level. ill wlOCl! poiot 1be .OS5 of.* 'e ', 1be III"geSI d e;urup coot In iIle use ohc RDD. the il'lIe 0: call1illlW!ali.llc 'c!eJIecd:.; cmI)' on iIle ;aur,c'e maternJ{s) (co IllJtleiII prOCe5; is m\'ohied). and me ' ~"fl!!I! of C0Il1illlW!a . C depEnd:.; 00 the physical foml oi !h.e SOlll"CP- ,md!he ,meCO\'fIle.;.Sof the.di.;:per,allll.edJacisJllE. 'I1l.e ult:i!ruJ.te :lilte o*li!h.e cOllt1Jl:ication (iIll.d.Crus 101l.,g*D;:mt cOll5l!1[uelJr,e.) i; depenclfllt Oll .a c.omp!!::. dlainof tral!s];Ort.lIJ.li!ilkP-.

~;l1Ie. acrll ImLI!diatioo pIllces;e;, Ri!l101I.l frolll. ac RDD ,e~llltio:m would be vel)" different frollllbat oh 1l.1lJ ell1"weilpllc lietomli.llc baocau;e !here would ~ 00' large thmml cloud 00' :iJ:!je:1 II);, Iildioarn\'e material into the tmo;phere. acdl 1be iIlLOIllll ofIildioarn\\;! material'r;\'01!M e n:.udl.ess than that gfller.ated iII ~ llUa ell1"T,!.. eapoc e\'fIlt. A ~- .a;'3!!~lJleni of1be ea!con:ic coc;equeru::es oh 10 kG "* 1.3 lWin :ew Yolik C- ' j; jlre5f1l1l!din Fig1nre 9,

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s*13 IlBtOMlioD :in Ne'il' Yon! Cit}.

co.. CLUSro~S The methoc!o'log}* ~~ed in Ibis Pi!pe! pnl\'ide; a :ifriu:nI!,'i\'DB for eva:.1ua1ing the lI:ll!ior C.o;t coDIpOll!!nts fol!D1\1i.n;s a IlIldei1Ir 1\;e!I,.1IIm event. 'J'h.e,re ,m several ob~on..; tMt can be Dlilde fromlDeruult; 1h1l.'l :fill:

.' 'Th,e ecJOOl)]r.k COlEl!qI1&Ce5 01" a Radl'NlI.c eveDt i!.IE! l!:igM. ,d£p!I!.Mm OD and do".~)*

wl1pled II) the eilIJ.1!p l.eve 5o>..lEdJ!d

. ' C._ilIJ.lIp 'co;l; ,geomilly int:reil5e drlm!i!ti.ca!ly fur stmIiar.c); more 5IJ:ingent 1bm 5110 mrem.";l:.

• ' C _ilIJ.lIp to, me II1II>1: cOll5eI1;'aliVl! sr.udmll evaluated (15, Iml!Dlo . . ) DIlIguifies me I!CollOmiC ,conseI[1I.!I!.Ce; oflb;, E\'!I!.t im!;pe.::nVl! 0'1" the w; oflilIE;!I or weajlQJl. ~ld .

• ' BeG1me ;1lCf! ,aD 'H'eI!I couldl potenItilly spread COll1alJ1.ina . OO\'ery 1IriJf,>~)'. e!Vl!!l,aIh '1!1.-eIll in remo1:e~ lo~atio:n could ~ hnge ,&o:nomic 'comequen.ce;.

• A rut*based ,approach to me de\' ~pn:!I!.t anJ! ,application of 5 ilIJ.dmls is Jl.~d:ed.

Thm are no natfOlLlll1lllllWds for a~ceptible ifecoll1alJ1.ina . 00 o~ iI. radio.o!!i.cal 1\;eapon eVl!DI.

and the ~A SIlIIlriluds 1lied 'Undl!r CERCUI. were ,~ed to addri!;s groi\T~ COIlc:ems ,aoout IDe n.eed 10,dean up ootontrolled. abwJJio!led baziudD1I.'l wiltile site, all.d 10 ,alilires.; future raeilties of 1!iuMdo1l.'l 51ib;tiIIl.ce; into the eIl\!iMnJr.~ . Q&lIl1p a!fb!Jr ,a1;I',;,1IpOIll ~ mcIl.iI.S one oflbose descri:bedin fuis p.ijll!l!' 1\ be ~tl)' differem from me dea.n.up,of ill ,eont.mIinMed iDdJJ;trW facili;y or fom::r weajlOlli prodJXtfon fadiliIy. The stilll.dml ;elecled will impact th me co:.1:

and the !liI.Ce oflDe CJ:eilIJ.lIp. Pci!iq' .1!1.-e1 a1tell.ti.on lo C!:eilIJ.lIp ,1lIndard5is Wiln:i1D1ed.

,.~:CKNOl\iI.1IDG'MiEl rrs The iIlltbor,;,\\ II lfte to aCknowledge the do:;e COlIJlI!l!'il.ti ,iI.Ild /he valw;b.e comments iI.!lJi su.~e.>tro!l> !lromed )' the othl!!!' Ir;~mb<>.L; of me Radio1ogir COUDteIm rum Sy';Iem; Alla1y-,js Wolting G!0LIJI'. i1> WJ>Jl ,ilS ;.i[mi]Mily va:.1w.b._iIIplII from olbl!r staiff,aoo ~eIIlmt '

Padfu Nomfm;l:>1: N lion!!. La:bm:atory ). The R.il.di([logi.cal CIl1IllD"....D!Ill!asnre!i SFIl!DlS Arw)'>is 'i\ omng 'GToLIJI' iIlCludes Lar;n ,!I!.ce Livem::<<,;, N lion!!. Ubm:al0ry (]LNL).

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HomEW!.d Seruri . for ;JIDll5DriD.g iIle ;,tud)'.

REFERE..~CE.s

[I] Dl!!oonh Elrod.. Gla~ ..'t. Klemi.c. lIoo Anibal T(lb:ias. "R ..ta.b!i5ltiIlg Remed.'iaDOll Le,\'d; mlU!';JKXD5e [0 a Rildiol(lE;i.cal EvenI (o! 'DUty Bom'b'V E.nuOlII'!I rat S~1!'C1I5 &' T~( IIIlQli!IfJ'. 'Vol 38, . '0. 9. 004.

[ ] United S !ab>~ G1!neral Acccnmting Office.. "Ra.diati.on StmdMtf;. Scien1ific Balli Incon.du;av; an.d EP.;\ mi NR! Di~~enl CollliIrue; .~ JI.III.e 20M.

[3] s- 1Jemenl ofRDben 'G. ard. UDli:er Secreti!IY. ilDtI Jesti.e 1:1. ROber>llD, A ;si.;taiIII SemWy fur ED1.IironmeoIlll M.am;;1!1lIlm U . ep!JibIlmt ofEbl!I'gy. Hau:;e S'llbro~ 00.

Str.l!egk Forces omm..rtte!! OIlJ.Al!Ined SenOOi!i.

blIpJ. m'\\'.ener~. g(l',7l'engin.ei'c oJl1mt_do?PUBlJI . _ID~ B/li<il9&B' _COD ~P1l

_CONGRiESS'['EST&TI_OODE=PRlESSSPEECH

[4] P~.I 1 . Zi.n:..n: ~llwim Ch£1yll.Aleb, iliI)' Bombs: 'Ihe'ThreatlU!\;lsiIed!."

D~ Homoo; N'Imlber lB. JallIl!iIY 2~ .

[5] J a;; oll Bnm. Jame;.0Jr. aaul earol ~port, "Meib"ll.tiDglbe Eff&!:;.oHhe Seplwiber 11.4.m o. (lD.* 'm YoII; Ci '." FRBNY EoolJDmk Policy Review. N(lvl!1l!Ibe! 2 002~

blIpJ. m'\\',ge!).arizollll.eibJ!- . _rg2 jj 1!.~aue,,;.Iltml

[ C!wrlIJJ. [)a1;idl . and Wal!er S. Mwful. "Site RestOI1l!io E~ o:: ...tttn"buta'b._

CcJst'l from ~tonrum-D '.sper:al Ac:dli:eJ.!; .~ SAN[)gQ-'OO5

• Sao.:lia * ' ational 'boriIwife.>.,

1996.

[ Gla;;1DJle" Sill!l1I!".l and PDilip . DolaD, "'1b: Elf&!:; 0'1 ~udeiU' WI!i!pOll5.," *n.ited State;, Dl!o..1IMtD:eJlt off Deffllie and the EDergy i!.e;eiIrcb ilDtI D..ve. PllIleJlt AlilI:.ioistta. ' DD, 19 B