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FOIA/PA-2015-0294 - Resp 2 - Final, Agency Records Subject to the Request Are Enclosed. Part 5 of 8
	ML16054A013
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Site:	Palo Verde, Columbia, Diablo Canyon
Issue date:	02/12/2016
From:	; NRC/OCIO
To:	;
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	FOIA/PA-2015-0294
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{{#Wiki_filter:Alan Mon-is From:Alan Morris. Sent:28 May 2015 19:08:23 +0000 To:Ronald McGinnis;Kevin Smart;David Ferrill;Sarah Wigginton

Subject:

Oiablo Canyon IMHO For what it's worth: As far as I can tell from the reports and presentations available to us, the Central Coastal California Seismic Imaging Project from Pacific Gas & Electric seems fine, that is: (1) I think they characterized the kinematics of the area/region accurately (2) The fault model choices seem logical, although not very broad in scope (3) Without working through a complete example with t he data, it seems that their slip rates and fault kinematic models are reasonable and therefore ... (4) The hazard conclusions are probably also reasonable Another caveat: There are clearly normal faults along parts of the Hosgri fault zone and it is not obvious how they have been incorporated into the kinematic model(s). With respect to displacement on the Hosgri fault zone as measured by displaced channels, I feel the need to work through this from data to hazard curve. The relevant data seems to be the 2D/3D low-energy seismic surveying (LESS) discussed in chapt er 3 of the Central Coastal California Seismic Imaging Project report. I think the data were collected by Fugro in 2011 - 2012, we probably don't want the raw data, but the final cut together with their interpretations in seg-y form for import into both Petrel and Move. Another dataset t hat would be nice is the USGS (Jeanne Hardebeck's) re-calculated hypocenter data, she sent us the older set a while back, but I think she has both new events and a newly calculated set of hypocenters. There may be other things but that's my $0.02. Alan Alan Morris. Departmenr of Earth. Material, and Planetary Sciences Geosciences and Engineering Division Southwest Research institute 6220 Culebra Road, San Antonfo, TX 78238, USA Tel: 210.522.6743 Fax: 2 10.522.5155 Web page: hnp://www.swri.org/4org/d20/geosci/structur.hun http://3dstress.swri.org/

John Stamatakos From:John Stamatakos Sent:27 Mar 2015 20:00:44 +0000 To:Ronald McGinnis;David Ferrill ;Amy Minor;Kevin Smart Cc:Miriam R. Juckett

Subject:

Diablo Canyon Review I've place most of my Diablo Canyon files on the DEMPS server (Demps\regios). There are a series of reports that Pacific Gas & Electric (POG&E) produced over the last few years.

1. Shoreline and RIL: The Shoreline report was submitted by PG&E in 2011 and we (with NRC review. if in. 2012). The Regulatory Information. Letter (RIL 12-01) is that review. This. report and review. focused on the Shoreline fault and potential implications to the Licensing Basis for the plant. But the reports offer some good general background information. Other files in this folder are related to the Shoreline Report and the RIL.

2. DCPP Shoreline and Thrust Faylt Al!egatjon: In add jt jo1 to the Shoreline Report, NRC had us look at an allegation made b~(bJC l 5

_about other possible faults and the plant. Alan helped me on one of the allegations (possible blind thrust beneath the plant site).

3. Central Coastal California Seismic Imaging Project: The California state legislature passed a bill after the Shoreline Report authorizing PG&E t o collect boat load of new seismic imaging data. This report is essentially a data dump of that work, and it has the bulk of what I would like you all to look at.

4. LTSP: Th is is an old PG&E report (1991) that may also be useful as background.

5. NTIF DCCP PSHA Review: This is the actual new seismic hazard study that we are reviewing. We will need to cross reference the conclusions about faults (do they exist, t heir geometry, slip rate, length and area, etc.) based on seismic imaging to the data in the CCCSIP report.

6. Diablo Canyon ISFSR SER : This was our review of the site back in early 2000's for the Independent Spent Fuel Storage Installation (ISFSI). May be useful as background information.

7. Figure: is a folder I use to put in various figures and some of my Diablo Presentations and related images.

For reference: http://www.pge.com/en/safety/systemworks/dcpp/seismicsafety/index.page This link gets you to most of these reports on line. Work Scope: I have five progressive tasks in mind. 1.. Look through the CCCSIP documents and develop a summary (catalog) of all the seismic imaging data that's there. Identify the who, what and where and assess its quality and possible usefulness to the PSHA. I think we can do this relatively quickly. We can even bring on a temp/student if available and willing to work on this. NRC wants to be able to say that they are fami liar with all the data and have looked it over as part of the review. I would like to have a very quick deliverable on this (couple of pages?) relatively soon.

2. Identify which data in the CCCSIP report is actually relied on to develop conclusions in the new PSHA. Assess the validity of the structural/seismic interpretations from the quality of the seismic imaging data. This may take a bit longer than task 1, but I hope we can do this relatively quickly.

3. Identify potential faults in the data sets that may have been overlooked by the PSHA technical team. I am not suggesting we identify any vague targets, but if you see images that in your view (and based on your experience) are very likely significant faults, we should tag them and assess their potential to influence t he seismic hazard at the site.

4. For those critical data sets identified in task 2, complete a technical review of the data and the interpretations. This will be included in our write up for the overall PSHA assessment.

5. Review the 3D data collected in t he Irish Hills to reassess the blind thrust fault model {I think it is now referred to as the San Luis Range Th rust).

I'll walk you all through this again next week and provide some more background on the PSHA and how we can assess whether fault sources can be important to the PSHA next week.

Thanks, John Dr. John Stamatakos Director of Technical Programs Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses (CNWRA)

Southwest Research Institute 1801 Rockville Pike, Rockville, MD 20852 301-881-0290 jstamatakos@swri.org

John Stamatakos From:John Stamatakos. Sent: 12 May 201520:1 1: 18 +0000 To:Debashis Basu;Kaushik Das

Subject:

Oiablo Matlab work OK, I put everything in S:\John Stamatakos\Diablo Files It includes chapter 8 from the PG&E report, all the figures that uses these PDFs and CDFs in the analysis, the email from George and Osvaldo helping with the formula, and my Excel Spread sheet. The question is, can we code up MATLAB to make these distribution? Thanks John Dr. John Stamatakos Director of Technical Programs Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses (CNWRA) Southwest Research Institute 1801 Rockville Pike, Rockville, MD 20852 301-881-0290 jstamatakos@swri.org

John Stamatakos From:John Stamatakos. Sent:29 Apr 2015 19:45:20 +0000 To:Giacinto, Joseph (Joseph.Giacinto@nrc.gov);Plaza-Toledo, Meralis (Meralis.Plaza-T oledo@nrc.gov)

Subject:

Diablo SSC I had a good call with the San Antonio folk. I can meet after the Columbia meeting to talk through some of the early observations.

Thanks, John Dr. John Stamatakos Director of Technical Programs Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses (CNWRA)

Southwest Research Institute 1801 Rockville Pike, Rockville, MD 20852 301-881-0290 jstamatakos@swri.org

Informal review ofThe Central Coastal California Seismic Imaging Project (CCCSIP) report (Pacific Gas and Electric Company) By GED April 2015 The Central Coastal California Seismic Imaging Project (CCCSIP) report was produced by the Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) in response to a 2008 recommendation by the California Energy Commission (CEC). The California Energy Commission's 2008 report "An Assessment of California's Nuclear Power Plants: AB 1632 Report", also known as the "AB 1632 Report", recommended that Pacific Gas. and Electric perform a series of geophysical investigations to explore fault zones. near the. Diablo. Canyon Power Plant (DCPP). A primary goal of the investigations was to improve understanding of the seismic risk to the Diablo Canyon Power Plant, specifically:

Hosgri Fault Zone slip rate
Hosgri Fault Zone dip
Hosgri-San. Simeon fault zone step-over (i.e., are these faults. linked so that will rupture. in unison?)
Los Osos fault zone slip rate
Los Osos fault zone dip
Los Osos fault zone sense of slip
Hosgri-Shoreline fault zone rupture (i .e., are these faults linked so that will rupture in unison?)
Shoreline fault zone slip rate
Shoreline fault zone southern extent
Shoreline fault zone segmentation These issues were chosen because of their importance in choosing seismic source parameters used to model the seismic hazard for the Diablo Canyon Power Plant, and because of the uncertainty associated with them. Hazard is expressed as probability of ground motion acceleration exceeding 2 g at the key frequency of 5 hertz.

Three areas of study were. specifically prescribed by the AB1632 report: (1) PG&E should use three-dimensional geophysical seismic reflection mapping and other advanced techniques to explore fault zones near Diablo Canyon. (2) As ground motion models are refined to account for a greater understanding of the motion near an earthquake rupture, it will be important for PG&E to consider whether the models indicate larger than expected seismic hazards at Diablo Canyon and if so, whether the plant was built with. sufficient design margins to continue. operating reliably after experiencing t hese large ground motions. 1

(3) PG&E should assess the implications of a San Simeon-type earthquake beneath Oiablo Canyon. This assessment should include expected ground motions and vulnerability assessments for safety-related and non-safety related plant systems and components that might be sensitive to long period motions in the near field of an earthquake rupture. A range of data is presented and analyzed in the Central Coastal California Seismic Imaging Project report, most of it collected between 2009 and 2014, but including and drawing upon a variety of work performed over the previous 30 years. Work incorporated in the report was performed by PG&E, its contractors, and by. the United States Geological Survey. The report is organized into the following sections: Marine seismic reflection surveys (including analysis of natural seismicity data) Chapters 2 and 4- 20/30 low-energy seismic surveying (LESS) to map the Hosgri, Shoreline and Point Buchon fault zones and associated folding west, northwest and north of Oiablo Canyon Power Plant. Chapter 4 includes older, deep-penetration seismic data to investigate linkage between Hosgri and San Simeon fault zones and folding offshore and south of the Los Osos fault zone. Important conclusions, chapter 2:

   *   "The main structural elements mapped in the study area are the Hosgri fault zone (HFZ), the Point Buchon fault zone, and a prominent syncline that deforms Tertiary strata in the southern two thirds of the study area."
   *   "The Hosgri fault zone consists of numerous fault strands and is the best imaged and most continuous and complex fault zone in the region."
   *   " ... the local style of faulting changes along strike of the Hosgri fault zone. Graben A, bounded by right-stepping strands of the Hosgri fault zone in the north, indicates extensiona l strike slip faulting. A single fault strand characterizes the fault zone in the center of the study area.

Numerous, relatively short strands fan out to the southeast and are associated with folds in the south, indicating compressional strike-slip faulting."

   *   "The Point Buchon fault zone, northwest of the central. segment of the Shoreline fault zone, is a northwest-trending fault that disrupts Tertiary strata east of the HFZ"
   *   " ... the Point Buchon fault zone may connect to the central segment of the Shoreline fault zone and associated structures"
   *   " Graben B is associated with the northern end of the Point Buchon fault zone"
   *   " ...t he structural relationship between the two grabens [A and BJ and structures within Estero Bay to the north of the study area needs to be f urther evaluated"

Because "the 30/20 data are restricted to the shallow subsurface, the mapped surficial faults cannot be confidently extended to the earthquake hypocentral depths. Therefore, no conclusion can be. made. in regard t o these faults being the source. of the earthquakes that constitute. the northern Shoreline seismicity sublineament" 2

Important conclusions, chapter 4:

  *   " ... we were unable to observe any clear evidence in the seismic-reflection data for a recent fault connecting the San Simeon fault zone with the Hosgri fault zone. Our interpretations do not preclude the existence of a fault at depth or the possibility of a future rupture along this fault at depth, including propagation to the surface."
  *   " ... we map the newly named Half Graben fault zone, a series of fau lts along which a half graben has formed, down-dropped on t he east and. tilted to the west ... The half graben is narrow in. the north ... To the south, the half graben widens considerably and appears to end near ... the Los Osos fault zone" Chapter 3- 2D/3D low-energy seismic surveying (LESS) to identify the southern extent , geometry, connectivity, and slip rate of the Shoreline fault, and the slip rate on the Hosgri fault zone. Older deep penetration data are also used.

Important conclusions:

  *   "Piercing points identified for constraining offsets along the Shoreline, Oceano, and Hosgri fault zones were identified ... buried paleochannels and paleoshorelines (paleostrandlines) were the best geomorphic features to use in evaluating offsets."
  *   "These studies reveal a more complex [Hosgri] fault zone than had previously been mapped".
  *   " ... strands of the Hosgri fault zone [in the Estero Bay area) are generally steeply dipping to vertical. .."
  *   " ... sense of vertical separation across the Hosgri fault zone [in the Estero Bay area] is dominantly down to the west ..."
  *   "Channel offsets and their interpreted ages yield a preferred lateral slip rate for the Hosgri fault zone in Estero Bay of approximately 1.6 +/- 0.8 mm/yr within a high (90%) confidence interval.

Accounting for uncertainties in ages and offset estimates, the range in lateral slip rate is between approximately 0.2 mm/yr and. 3.6 mm/yr."

  *   [In the Point Sal Area] "The. new mapping ... shows that from south to north, the Hosgri fault zone splits from a single strand with little or no vertical separation to multiple splays with substantial vertical and dextral shear, which converge to form a single strand once more.... with transtension in the south and transpression in the north. There is an approximate 6-degree change in the strike of the Hosgri fault zone ... "
  *   "Channel Complex F provides the. preferred piercing points for estimating slip rates on the Hosgri fault zone in the Point Sal area."
  *   "a minimum estimated slip rate of 0.39 mm/yr (1.4 Ma at 550 m minimum offset) and a maximum estimated slip rate of 5.07 mm/yr (138 ka at 700 m maximum offset) is calculated for the Hosgri fault zone at Point Sal" Chapter 5 - Deployment and monitoring of ocean bottom seismographs (OBS)

Important conclusions: 3.

   *    "offshore events close to but outside the ocean bottom seismographs stations will have improved depth control; however, these events are still subject to uncertainty, particularly with regard to the focal mechanisms."

Chapter 6 - Characterization of the Hosgri fault zone using primarily post 1988 seismic reflection data but also some gravity and magnetic surveys. A 3D high-energy seismic survey (HESS) was proposed by PG&E, however, the California Coastal Commission denied PG&E's application due to concerns about the environmental impact of these studies. Important conclusions:

* "Earlier models ... that identified the Hosgri fault zone as a major thrust fault underlying the Coast Ranges are not supported by the (older) high-energy marine 20 seismic-reflection data acquired during the Long Term Seismic. Program (LTSP); nor are they supported by potential field and seismicity data collected during the Long Term Seismic Program Update and Central Coastal California Seismic Imaging Project (that's this one] program."
* "Geologic observation, seismicity data, and geophysical data all demonstrate that the Hosgri fault zone is a right-lateral strike-slip fault that dips steeply (75°- 90°) northeast to a depth of 12-14 km in the vicinity of the Diablo Canyon power plant."
* "evidence for recent fault rupture between the Hosgri and San Simeon fault zones is not well imaged in some locations, [although] the data do not preclude the existence of fault linkage at seismogenic depths"
* "Chapter 13 presents a ground-motion hazard sensitivity analysis. for the linkage of the Hosgri and San Simeon faults, and a combined rupture of the Hosgri-San Simeon and Shoreline faults" Land seismic surveys Chapter 7 - Description of the Geologic Mapping Project conducted by PG&E and also reported separately, well data from Honolulu-Tidewater #1, and introduction of natural seismicity, gravity and magnetic data, although the primary data presented in the chapter is 20 accelerated weight-drop (AWD) and a small vibro-seis 30(?) volume of seismic reflection data. Several cross sections are drawn and the Pismo Syncline is described. The purpose was. to evaluate the geometry of the Los Osos,. San Miguelita, and San Luis Bay faults, as. well as illuminate the deeper structure of the Pisma. Syncline and the Edna.

fault system within the central Irish Hills. Important conclusions:

   *    "The Pismo syncline in the central and southern Irish Hills is the deformed remnant of a Neogene extensional basin."

The basin was bounded on the north by the Edna fault zone(s), fairly large basin bounding normal faults. The southern margin of the basin (now the southern limb of the Pismo Syncline) was formed by several smaller north-dipping normal faults, which have been inverted to reverse faults during synclinal folding. Many of these faults are "blind", i.e. are not exposed at the surface and are interpreted from seismic data.

4

Folds are mappable at the surface.
The overall interpretation is one of a negative flower structure that formed during a transtensional phase of slip, and that was later inverted during transpressional slip.
All faults are interpreted as steeply dipping.

Chapter 8- 3D seismic reflection survey confined to an onshore area around the Diablo Canyon Power Plant about 3 x S km ("Phase 1"), and a small shoreline strip southeast of the power plant about 3 km long by 0.5 km wide including the Rattlesnake fault at the shoreline ("Phase 2"). Data collected and analyzed by Fugro. Detailed geologic map of the area around the power plant. The goal was to identify structures that might be significant to seismic hazard analysis of the power plant, and provide input data for ground motion modeling at the power plant site. Important conclusions:

*. " ... folding in buried reflector packages consistent with out-of-syncline parasitic folding that discordantly detached and shortened Obispo volcaniclastic strata off of stiffer, relatively undeformed diabase bodies... folding event is old and no longer active, and took place during the compressional uplift event that inverted the ancestral Pismo Basin into the deeply eroded Pismo syncline."
*. " Despite differences in elevation between time-correlated uplifted terraces, the terraces themselves remain horizontal, indicating that the style of late Quaternary deformation of the western Irish Hills is characterized by rigid block uplift with little or no rotation."
* ... [in Phase 1 area] "no throughgoing steep or vertical reflector truncations were observed that would indicate the presence of a significant steep fault offset. ... Any throughgoing faulting in the reflective depth range of 0 to 0.3 km would have to follow shallow to flat unconformities."
* [The updated surface mapping] "shows steep, generally north dipping Obispo volcaniclastic strata exposed along Discharge Cove. The tomography indicates that these steeply dipping strata are underlain by a shallowly north-dipping diabase intrusive. Future efforts that would consider the construction of a stratigraphic cross section through the Phase 1 area must be very wary of using only the surface dip data, and should honor the nearly flat-lying subsurface velocity structure as well."
* "Three lineaments mapped on the bedrock surface beneath the marine terrace sediments in the Phase 2 area merit investigation as potential faults. In order to directly examine the potential fault plane, ground-based investigations of the bedrock platform surface and the overlying Quaternary sediments would be required" Chapter 9 - Results of Geologic Mapping Project, intended to help interpretation of onshore seismic reflection data . Data presented includes previously published and unpublished geologic maps plus new data collected in this study. There is a section dedicated to the Los Osos fault zone. One conclusion is:

"new mapping in the vicinity of the Edna, Los Osos, San Luis Bay, San Miguelito, and Shoreline fault zones does not introduce any new hard constraints on fault location, dip, slip direction, or slip rate". Data presented in this chapter is also used in chapters 7 and 8. s

Appendices contain daily field reports, photographs, sample catalogue, an Arc GIS catalogue of shapefiles and other information relating to data acquisition and geologic mapping in the Irish Hills, and a compilation of (primarily) stratigraphic data from 18 of 34 wells (26 oil and 8 hydrogeologic). Important conclusions:

   *    "Edna and San Miguelito fault zones - minor changes to the geologic units adjacent to the faults."
   *    " Los Osos fault zone-minor changes to the geologic units adjacent to the fault zone, and changes to the depiction of the fault zone along the northern margin of the Irish Hills (including removal of the concealed, northwest-trending fault across southern Morro. Bay)."
   *    "Shoreline fault zone-minor changes to the geologic units and bedrock faults adjacent to the fault zone for the reaches opposite Olson Hill and the Diablo Canyon power plant."
   *    "San Luis Bay fault zone-minor changes to the geology adjacent to the fault zone along the outer coast from Olson Hill to Rattlesnake Creek, and the addition of a generalized, concealed, and locally queried trace in San Luis Obispo Bay and on the outer coast between the Rattlesnake fault and the Olson Hill deformation zone."

Geotechnical studies Chapter 10 - provides a 30 shear-wave velocity (V5 ) model for the Diablo Canyon power plant foundation area. Both 30 acoustic compressional-wave velocity (Vp) models and one-dimensional V5-depth profiles constrained by surface-wave dispersion were developed within the Oiablo Canyon power plant site. Important conclusions:

There is significant spatial variability in V5*30 [shear-wave velocity in the top 30 meters]

throughout the Oiablo Canyon power plant site due to variations in near surface geology.

The shear-wave-velocity model is used as input into the Site Conditions Evaluation report in Chapter 11.

Chapter 11 - Site conditions evaluation as relevant to the modeling of ground motion at the Diablo Canyon power plant site. Chapter 12 -Addresses testimony from Dr. Douglas Hamilton concerning two postulated faults: the Oiablo Cove and the San Luis Range/Inferred Offshore faults. In addition to using selected data from Hamilton, a variety of other PG&E reports, and published literature, this chapter uses data from chapters 2, 4, 7, 8, and 9 in Central Coastal California Seismic Imaging Project (th is) report. Important conclusions: Essentially they conclude that the Oiablo Cove fault is a non-issue, and that the San Luis Range/Inferred Offshore fault - although not there - will be accounted for in their new seismic source characterization [hmmm]. 6

"We conclude that the Diablo Cove fault does not represent a seismic hazard to the Diablo Canyon power plant, and there is no basis for considering the Diablo Cove fault as proposed by Hamilton ... to be either a fault displacement hazard or a seismic source of strong ground motions. We make this conclusion based on the following key points:
Trench and excavation mapping conducted prior to construction of the Diablo Canyon power plant documented that the fault zone is discont inuous, is associated with minimal offset, and does not displace marine terrace deposits that are 120 ka. Thus, the faulting where observed directly is minor and inactive in the late Pleistocene.
Geologic mapping and int erpretation of multibeam echo sounder imagery do not support connecting the Diablo Cove fault offshore to the Shoreline fault zone.
There is no basis for correlating seismicity with the Diablo Cove fault based on an evaluation of microearthquake locations and considerat ion of their location uncertainty.
The short length of the Diablo Cove fault zone-probably less than half a kilometer-is not consistent with a down-dip width of several kilometers that would extend the fault to seismogenic depths.
Structural analysis of geologic data and high-resolution 30 land seismic data at the Diablo Canyon power plant supports an interpretation, shared by the original mappers of the faults, that the faulting is related to shallow fold deformation and shortening that predates t he late Quaternary and probably dates to the Miocene or Pliocene. The faulting may or may not be related to a M iocene diabase intrusion imaged directly north of the north-dipping Diablo Cove fault at shallow depths. Based on this interpretation, the fault extends to only a few tens to hundreds of meters depth."
We conclude that there is no clear evidence in the available data to support the presence of [the San Luis Range/Inferred Offshore thrust fault], and there is evidence that precludes its presence.

Accordingly, there is no basis for considering the San Luis Range/Inferred Offshore thrust to be a seismic hazard to the Diablo Canyon power plant as proposed by Hamilton. We make this conclusion based on the following key points:

Analyses of multibeam echo sounder bathymetry data and seismic-reflection data do not support the interpreted uplift rate boundary across the San Luis Range/Inferred Offshore thrust fault proposed by Hamilton. Instead, interpretations of the data are consistent with a very low or negligible change in uplift rate where the San Luis Range/Inferred Offshore thrust fault is interpreted to impinge on the Shoreline fault zone and where the SLRF is interpreted to diverge from the Shoreline fault zone south of Point Buchon. Interpretations of coastal marine terrace data and offshore marine terraces are consistent with uplift rate boundaries that instead coincide with other structures considered by PG&E in past seismic hazard analyses.
We disagree with the assertion by Dr. Hamilton that the San Luis Range/Inf erred Offshore thrust fault interpretation is required to fit the observed pattern of coastal t errace uplift and instead suggest the observed pattern of coastal uplift may be matched by several proposed fault geometries, including those proposed by PG&E in past seismic hazard analyses.

7

We disagree with the assertion by Dr. Hamilton that the seismicity data beneath the Irish Hills show a clear alignment supporting the San Luis Range/Inferred Offshore thrust fault at depth.

The seismicity data can be interpreted in different ways to support many different fault models.

Interpretation of land seismic-reflection data do not show evidence for a gently to moderately dipping San Luis Range/Inferred Offshore thrust fault beneath the southern Irish Hills in the general location proposed by Hamilton. Instead, interpretations of t he seismic-reflection data show steeply north-dipping structures down to approximately 7 km depth or deeper that coincide with recognized faults (the Irish Canyon and San Luis Bay) at the surface. The interpretation of. these steeply dipping structures to depth precludes the presence of the San Luis Range/Inferred Offshore thrust fau lt.
Although the specific San Luis Range/Inferred Offshore t hrust fault interpretation by Hamilton is not well supported by the available data, and by no means can be held up as a unique or preferred Interpretation, the genera l solution of a primary, north- or north-northeast-dipping fault beneath the Irish Hills is consistent with several observations, and is a possible fau lt model that should be considered for seismic hazard analysis to the Diablo Canyon power plant. We note that the interpretations by Hamilton are being considered for evaluation and integration with other available data following the Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee Level 3 process. The Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee program for the Diablo Canyon power plant, which is being performed under regulatory review by the NRC, is. creating a new seismic source characterization model.

Chapter 13 - Evaluation of sensitivity of the deterministic ground motions that were presented in the PG&E Shoreline Fault Zone Report (2011} to the seismic source characterizations for the Shoreline and Hosgri faults, using new ground motion models developed by the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research (PEER) center as part of their " Next Generation Attenuation" program. Important conclusion:

    *   "For al l t he cases considered in t his sensitivity st udy, t he. 84t h percentile ground motions for the power-block and turbine-building foundation levels are bounded by the 1977 Hosgri spectrum."

[In other words, their former analysis is not affected by any of the new data/interpretations.] Chapter 14 - The findings and conclusions of the Central Coastal California Seismic Imaging Project report [this one] . Important conclusion:

    *   "These studies confirm previous analyses that the plant and its major components are designed to withstand-and perform their safety. functions. during and aft er-a major seismic event."

8

John Stamatakos From:John Stamatakos Sent:13 Apr2015 15:00:17 +0000 To:Miriam R. Juckett

Subject:

OiabloCanyonPowerPlant - seismic ri sk data survey April 2015 Attachments:DiabloCanyonPowerPlant - seismic risk data smvey April 2015.docx Can you look this over quickly? I want to hand out at today's meeting.

Sarah Wigginton From:Sarah Wigginton Sent:8 Apr 2015 19:21:56-0500 To :Ronald McGinnis;David Ferri ll Cc:Alan Morris

Subject:

Document C atal ogue

All, Here is a link to the completed portion of the Document Catalogue for Diablo Canyon.

Z:\ Diablo Canyon\Diablo Canyon\Document Catalog COMPLETE.xlsx I have about 300 more pages to go in t he very last PDF, but I'll be doing that work in a separate excel file (\\REGIOS\Demps\Diablo Canyon\Diablo Canyon\Document Catalogue IN PROGRESS.xlsx) so it won't interfere with any work you all do on t he completed portion .

Best, Sarah Sarah Wigginton Department of Earth,. Material, and Planetary. Sciences Geosciences and Engineering. Division Southwest Research fnstitute 6220 Culcbra Road, San Antonio, TX 78238, USA

Osvaldo Pensado From:Osvaldo Pensado Sent:30 Apr 2015 18:22:54 -0500 To:John Stamatakos

Subject:

Function for excel Okay John. What is the charge number? Doing your problem in Mathematica is quite simple. In Excel ... not so much. I give you instructions to get the trapezoidal function in Excel. For the trapezoidal function for the offset: a=15 b=26. c=35 d=43. pis a random number uniformly sampled between 0 an 1. . It can be. sampled with Excel using p=Rand(). Apply it to randomly sampled values of p=Rand() in Excel. The formula is a big sausage with nested if-then statements. At least it is a closed formula . There is a high chance to make a typographical error, though. You should consider programming the formula in a macro. trapezCDFinv[p_, a_. b_, c_. d_] := If[O $ p & p b-a

                              <          b       d , a+,./ a 2 p - b 2 p - acp + bcp - adp + bdp,
                                 -a- + c +

b- a a+ b - 2c 1 Elself[ b d$p&p< b d,- (a + b -ap - bp+cp+dp),

                    -a - + c +                    a+ - c-          2 a+ b - 2c Elself[       b        d s p &p a+ - c -
                    $ 1. d - ,j~a_

c _+_b_ c ___c_ 2 -_- a_d___b_d_+_d_2__ ad_p_+_b_d_p___d_2_p]]]

                                                                  - a-cp___b_c_p_+_c_2_p_+_

This is the plot of the trapezCDFinv function

40 35 'E i"30 £ 0 25 20 15 00 02 04 06 08 10 Cumulative Probablhty I derived the formula from the following trapezoid: 0 05 0 04 ~ ii 11> 0 03 .D

~ 0 02 a.

0.01 10 20 30 40 50 This is. the CDF: parabola segment, followed by a straight line, ending in another. pa rabola segment. 1.0 gOB .a ~ 06 0 a. E o4

J u 02 00 0 10 20 30 40 Offset [m I I felt like programming the formula in Excel for you, but I changed my m ind when I saw the sausage.

can do the Monte Carlo in no time in Mathematica. I do not feel like touching the sausage. For a Triangular function the formula to use is

cdffrianglnv[p_, a_, b_, c_]: = If[p

                   ~ (b- a)/(c- a) ,a+ Sqrt[(b- a)* (c- a)* p],c- Sqrt[(c- a) * (c -b)         * (1
                   - p)]];

aga in, p=Rand() To give you an idea on how simple the problem is in Mathematica, this would be the Latin hypercube sampling program (which will be better than random sampling you will do in Excel): s huffle[datos_] : =Module[{piv l , piv2={} , indl},pivl=datos ; While[Length[pivl]>O,indl=Random[Integer,{l,Lengt h [pi vl] } ] ; AppendTo[piv2 , pivlindl] ; pivl=Drop[pivl , {indl , indl}] ; ] ; Return[piv2 ]] ; pvec=shuffle[Table[i , {i , 0 , 1 , 1 . 0 / 5000}]] ; agel=cdfTrianginv(# , 11 . 5 , 12 , 12 . 5]& /@ pvec ; pvec=shuffle[pvec] ; offsetl=trapezCDFinv(# , 15 , 26 , 35 , 43]& /@ pvec ; dl=Emp i ri c a lDis tribution [offset l/ agel ] ; And the slip rate is Plot[CDF[d1,x], {x, 0,4}, Frame~ True, BaseStyle ~ 14, GridLines ~Au tomatic, FrameLabel

                      ~ {"Slip Rate [mm/yr]", "Cumulative Probability"}]

10 1 2 3 4 Slip Rate [m~/yr] Dr. Osvaldo Pensado

Group Manager, Risk Analysis. and Performance Assessment Geosciences and Engineering Division (210) 522-6084 opensado@swri.org

Sent:29 Apr 20 15 16:07: 18 +0000 To: Violeta Gonzales

Subject:

FW: Diablo Canyon Are you familiar with the bridge line procedure for phone calls? From: John Stamatakos Sent: Wednesday, April 29, 2015 11:06. AM To:. Ronald McGinnis.

Subject:

RE: Diablo canyon We have one we use for management meetings .. ask Violet. From: Ronald McGinnis Sent: Wednesday, April 29, 2015 12:05 PM To:. John Stamatakos

Subject:

RE: Diablo canyon. I have no idea. Never used one. I will ask. From: John Stamatakos Sent: Wednesday, April 29, 2015 11 :04 AM To: Ronald McGinnis

Subject:

RE: Diablo canyon Ronnie, do we have a bridge line we can use? John From: Ronald McGinnis Sent: Wednesday, April 29, 2015 10:37 AM To: John Stamatakos

Subject:

RE: Diablo canyon Sounds good. From: John Stamatakos.. Sent: Wednesday, April 29, 2015 9:35 AM To: Ronald McGinnis

Subject:

RE: Diablo canyon Office ... or we may use a bridge if I want to bring in NRC. From: Ronald McGinnis Sent: Wednesday, April 29, 2015 10:33 AM To: John Stamatakos

Subject:

RE: Diablo canyon

We will call you. Office or cell? From : John Stamatakos Sent: Wednesday, April 29, 2015 9: 16 AM To: Ronald McGinnis

Subject:

RE: Diablo Canyon OK From: Ronald McGinnis Sent: Wednesday, April 29, 2015 10:00 AM To: John Stamatakos

Subject:

RE: Diablo Canyon John, . How about 2:00 our time? -Ronny From: Ronald McGinnis Sent: Tuesday, April 28, 2015 1:55 PM To: John Stamatakos

Subject:

RE: Diablo Canyon Should work. I will get a time and let you know. From: John Stamatakos Sent: Tuesday, April 28, 2015 1:53 PM To: Ronald McGinnis

Subject:

RE: Diablo Canyon I am in a Diablo meeting right now. We should have a cal l tomorrow. I'll have to look at my schedule but could you ask your folks so we can set up a good time? John From: Ronald McGinnis Sent: Tuesday, April 28, 2015 1:35 PM To: John Stamatakos

Subject:

RE: Diablo Canyon

John,

We just got back in the office from two weeks of travel. David and I are in the office this week and then gone again next week. How did the meeting with NRC go? I got your voicemail asking about the GIS file but I didn't get it until yest erday. Do we have the go ahead for Phase 2? If so, we may want to have a phone call this week to go over the details.

Thanks, Ronny From: John Stamatakos Sent: Friday, April 10, 2015 3:04 PM To: Ronald McGinnis Cc: David Ferrill; Alan Morris l(b)(5l ~; Kevin Smart; Sarah Wigginton;. Miriam R. Juckett

Subject:

RE: Diablo Canyon - - - - - - - - I mean Ronny ... sorry I know better From: John Stamatakos Sent: Friday, April 10, 2015 4:02 PM To: Ronald McGinnis Cc : David Ferrill; Alan Morris (alanmrrsO@qmail.com); Kevin Smart; Sarah Wigginton; Miriam R. Juckett

Subject:

RE: Diablo Canyon Thanks Ronnie, Outstanding job. I am very pleased with the progress so far. john From: Ronald McGinnis Sent: Friday, April 10, 2015 3:58 PM To: John Stamatakos Cc: David Ferrill; Alan Morris .. I; l(b-J(_5l_ _ _ _ _ _..... Kevin Smart; Sarah Wigginton

Subject:

RE:. Diablo Canyon

John, We are not quite finished with the data quality tab in the spreadsheet so that will have to continue, but all the data has been reviewed and is represented by a row in the following linked spreadsheet.

Y:\Diablo Canyon\Diablo Canyon\Document Catalog COMPLETE.xlsx Also, we are working on an ArcGIS project that helps to organize the seismic data. It should be finished by COB today. That link is at Y:\Diablo Canyon\Diablo Canyon\ArcG IS GED\Diablo Canyon March 2015.mxd The review document is at T:\Diablo Canyon\Diablo Canyon\CNWRA report April 2015\DiabloCanyonPowerPlant - seismic risk dat a survey April 2015.docx

All the rest of the files are in the Diablo Canyon folder on regios. Let us know if you have any questions. -Ronny From: John Stamatakos Sent: Friday, April 10, 2015 2:48 PM To: Ronald McGinnis

Subject:

Diablo Canyon Can I review all the files so I can present at NRC on Monday? John Dr. John Stamatakos Director ofTechnical Programs Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses (CNWRA) Southwest Research Institute 1801 Rockville Pike, Rockville, MD 20852 301-881-0290 jstamatakos@swri.org

Sent:27 Mar 2015 20: 19:55 +QOOO 6 To:Alan Morris;Atan Morris r- -'(- J_ _ _ _ _ _ _ b

Subject:

FW: Diablo Canyon Review Not sure why you weren't copied ... From: John Stamatakos Sent: Friday, March 27, 2015 3:01 PM To: Ronald McGinnis; David Ferrill; Amy Minor; Kevin Smart Cc: Miriam R. Juckett

Subject:

Diablo Canyon Review I've place most of my Diablo Canyon files on the. DEMPS server (Demps\regios). There are a series of reports that Pacific Gas & Electric (POG&E) produced over the last few years.

1. Shoreline and RIL: The Shoreline report was submitted by PG&E in 2011 and we (with NRC review if in 2012). The Regulatory Information Letter (RIL 12-01) is that review. This report and review focused on the Shoreline fault and potential implications to the Licensing Basis for the plant. But the. reports offer some good. general background information, Other. files in this folder are. related. to. the. Shoreline Report and the RIL.

2. DCPP Shoreline and Thrust Fault Allegation : In addition to the Shoreline Report, NRC had us.

look at an allegation made by a. former. PG&E consultant about other. possible faults and the. plant .. Alan helped me on one of the. allegations. (possible blind thrust beneath the plant site).

3. Central Coastal California Seismic Imaging Project: The California state legislature passed a bill after the Shoreline. Report authorizing PG&E to collect boat load. of new seismic imaging data. This report is essentially a data dump of that work, and it has the bulk of what I would like you all to look at.

4. LTSP: Th is is an old PG&E report (1991) that may also be useful as background.

5. NTIF DCCP PSHA Review: This is the actual new seismic hazard study that we are reviewing. We will need to cross reference the conclusions about faults (do they exist, their geometry, slip rate, length and area, etc.) based on seismic imaging to the data in the CCCSIP report.

6. Diablo Canyon ISFSR SER : This was our review of the site back in early 2000's for the Independent Spent Fuel Storage Installation (ISFSI). May be useful as background information.

7. Figure : is a folder I use to put in various figures and some of my Diablo Presentations and related images.

For reference: http://www.pge.com/en/safety/systemworks/dcpp/seismicsafety/index.page This link gets you to most of these reports on line. Work Scope: I have five progressive tasks in mind.

1. Look through the CCCSIP documents and develop a summary (catalog) of all the seismic imaging data that's there. Identify the who, what and where and assess its quality and possible

usefulness to the PSHA. I think we can do this relatively quickly. We can even bring on a temp/student if available and willing to work on this. NRC wants to be able to say that they are familiar with all the data and have looked it over as part of the review. I wou ld like to have a very quick deliverable on t his (couple of pages?) relat ively soon.

2. Identify which dat a in t he CCCSIP report is actually relied on to develop conclusions in t he new PSHA. Assess the validity of the structural/seismic interpretations from the quality of the seismic imaging data. This may take a bit longer than task 1, but I hope we can do this relatively quickly.

3. Identify potential faults in the data sets that may have been overlooked by the PSHA technical team. I am not suggesting we identify any vague targets, but if you see images that in your view (and based on your experience) are very likely significant fault s, we should tag them and assess their potential to influence the seismic hazard at the site.

4. For those critica l data sets identified in task 2, complete a technical review of the data and the interpretations. This will be included in our write up for the overall PSHA assessment.

5. Review the 30 data collected in the Irish Hills to reassess the blind thrust fault model (I think it is now referred to as the San Luis Range Thrust).

I'll walk you all through this again next week and provide some more background on the PSHA and how we can assess whether fault sources can be important to the PSHA next week.

Thanks, John Dr. John Stamatakos Director ofTechnical Programs Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses (CNWRAi Southwest Research Institute 1801 Rockville Pike, Rockville, MD 20852.

301-881-0290 jstamatakos@swri.org

Sent:28 Apr 2015 18:56:06 +0000 To:David Ferrill;Alan Morris;Kevin Smart;Sarah Wigginton

Subject:

FW: Diablo Canyon Is t here a particula r t ime that works for you all? I am good any time. From: John Stamatakos.. Sent: Tuesday, April 28, 2015 1:53 PM To: Ronald McGinnis

Subject:

RE: Diablo canyon I am in a Diablo meeting right now. We should have a call tomorrow. I'll have to look at my schedu le but could you ask your folks so we can set up a good time? John From: Ronald McGinnis Sent:.Tuesday, April 28, 2015 1:35 PM. To:. John Stamatakos

Subject:

RE: Diablo canyon

John, We just got back in the office from two weeks of travel. David and I are in the office th is week and then gone again next week. How did the meeting with NRC go? I got your voicema il asking about the GIS file but I didn't get it until. yesterday.

Do we have the go ahead for Phase 2? If so, we may want to have a phone call this week to go over the details.

Thanks, Ronny From: John Stamatakos Sent: Friday, April 10, 2015 3:04 PM To: Ronald McGinnis Cc: David Ferrill; Alan Morris j(b)(GJ ~; Kevin Smart; Sarah Wigginton; Miriam R. Juckett

Subject:

RE: Diablo canyon. ' - - - - - - - - ' I mean Ronny ... sorry I know better From: John Stamatakos Sent: Friday, April 10, 2015 4:02 PM To: Ronald McGinnis Cc: David Ferrill; Alan Morris l(bl(6l J>; Kevin Smart; Sarah Wigginton; Miriam R. Juckett

Subject:

RE: Diablo canyon _ _ _ _ _ _ _......

Thanks Ronnie, Outstanding job. I am very pleased with the progress so far. john From: Ronald McGinnis Sent: Friday, April 10, 2015 3:58 PM To: John Stamatakos Cc: David Ferrill; Alan Morris r__J(_ 5 l_ _ _ _ _ _ _~; Kevin Smart; Sarah Wigginton

Subject:

RE: Diablo Canyon

John, We are not quite finished with the data quality tab in the spreadsheet so that will have to continue, but all the data has been reviewed and is represented by a row in the following linked spreadsheet.

Y:\Diablo Canyon\Diablo Canyon\Document Catalog COMPLETE.xlsx Also, we are working on an ArcGIS project that helps to organize the seismic data. It should be finished by COB today. That link is at Y:\Diablo Canyon\Diablo Canyon\ArcGIS GED\Diablo Canyon March 2015.mxd The review document is at T:\Diablo Canyon\Diablo Canyon\CNWRA report April 2015\DiabloCanyonPowerPlant - seismic risk data survey April 2015.docx All the rest of the files are in the Diablo Canyon folder on regios. Let us know if you have any questions. -Ronny From: John Stamatakos Sent: Friday, April 10, 2015 2:48 PM To: Ronald McGinnis

Subject:

Diablo Canyon Can I review all the files so I can present at NRC on Monday? John Dr. John Stamatakos Director of Technical Programs Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses (CNWRA) Southwest Research Institute 1801 Rockville Pike, Rockville, MD 20852 301-881-0290 jstamatakos@swri.org

John Stamatakos From:John Stamatakos Sent:22 Apr 2015 02:20:23 +0000 To:Miriam R. Juckett

Subject:

FW: diablo scenario events From: Munson, Clifford [1] Sent: Tuesday, April 21, 2015 11:46 AM To: Ake, Jon; John Stamatakos; Graizer, Vladimir Cc: Heeszel, David

Subject:

diablo scenario events

John, Would you come up with some plausible scenario events for Hosgri in terms of the parameters listed below (as a spreadsheet?). I coded the SWUS GMM for T =1 sec. There are 31 median models each with a unique set of 10 coefficients. I just read in their electronic file as a 31 by 10 matrix to avoid typing errors. I also coded up the total sigma (3 branches with 2 coefficients for each branch).

The input parameters are:

1. Magnitude (mag)

2. Depth to top of rupture (ztor) in km

3. Rupture distance (rrup) in km

4. Joyner-Boore distance (rjb) in km

5. Fault dip angle (dip) in degrees

6. Down-dip rupture width (ddrw) in km

7. Horizontal distance from top of rupture measured perpendicular. to strike (Rx) in km

8. Fault type (REV,NRM, or SS) - depending on rake angle I will proceed to code T =0.1 sec and maybe. some more periods if. I have time.

I would like to verify our results somehow before we merge these codes with Roland's.

Thanks, Cliff

John StamataKos From:John Stamatakos Sent:22 Apr 2015 02:21 :53 +0000 T0P l(5l I

Subject:

FW: diablo scenario events From: Munson, Clifford [2] Sent: Tuesday, April 21, 2015 11:46 AM To: Ake, Jon; John Stamatakos; Graizer, Vladimir Cc: Heeszel, David

Subject:

diablo scenario events

John, Would you come up with some plausible scenario events for Hosgri in terms of the parameters listed below (as a spreadsheet?). I coded the SWUS GMM for T =1 sec. There are 31 median models each with a unique set of 10 coefficients. I just read in their electronic file as a 31 by 10 matrix to avoid typing errors. I also coded up the total sigma (3 branches with 2 coefficients for each branch).

The input parameters are:

1. Magnitude (mag)

2. Depth to top of rupture (ztor) in km

3. Rupture distance (rrup) in km

4. Joyner-Boore distance (rjb) in km

5. Fault dip angle (dip) in degrees

6. Down-dip rupture width (ddrw) in km

7. Horizontal distance from top of rupture measured perpendicular. to strike (Rx) in km

8. Fault type (REV,N RM, or SS) - depending on rake angle I will proceed to code T =0.1 sec and maybe. some more periods if. I have time.

I would like to verify our results somehow before we merge these codes with Roland's.

Thanks, Cliff

John Stamatakos From:John Stamatakos Sent:4 May 2015 18:01:22 +0000 To:Stovall, Scott (Scott.StovaU@nrc.gov)

Subject:

FW: Diablo SSC Attachments:Diablo Canyon Seismic Source Characterization Review I .pdf From: John Stamatakos Sent: Monday, May 4, 2015 9:37 AM To: Graizer, Vladimir (Vladimir.Graizer@nrc.gov)

Subject:

FW: Diablo. SSC From: John Stamatakos [-:-:m:- a:- ilt-:i cl.,,.. J(5.,..,l,,__ _ _ _ _ ___, (b..,. Sent: Monday, May 4, 2015 9:33 AM To: John Stamatakos

Subject:

Diablo SSC

DIABLO CAN't'ON SEISMIC SOURCE CHARACTERl2~ATION REVIEW John Stamatakos 5/4/2015

CONTEMPORARY TECTONIC SETTING Dextral strike-slip plate boundary with transpression I

 \
   \

\ I

Offshore Santa Maria Basin

GPS S TRAIN RATES (a) Model 3 from Murray (2012} : No Constraints on the (b) Model 4 from Murray (2012): Oceanic-West Huasna Fautt Oceanic-West Huasna Fault Slip Rate Slip Rate Constrained to < 1 mm/yr 37' 34* 0 100 ' 0 100 .... '

        -  10 mmlyr          X      so nS/yt   ' ,                                                  10 mmlyr      X ~o nS/yr
 - 122*       - 121*           - 120*                - 118"           - 117'

122* 121* 120* - 119* ns* -1 17" EXPLANATION FrMfy-sllPJ>jng bouncbry Now: Red numb<<s ;.n slip r.l1e C'I rnrrlyr S8s ot ~ Resolved GPS Strain Rates on arrows ;re nbrNted str31n ~~ *teflSOl'S. Sets of IAd.

Saunc:l.arf on wflich bcMg is Hf!N:e 120" MORE STRAINS ~

~ *i
~
"I \
s.
.,_~~--~~~~--~~~~~.._~~~~~~~~~--
111*:ia 111 1) u1* uo*4~
.....~~~~""-~~~~~
1e1\*
."I* ..... ~ EXPLANATION HNVt lbt. CcmpoMDb*
R z righl-IMrai l z le\\-QIRr.ll l i i ._.
+ e,. ~dpMC.ld 9Vlll'Jllt>>ff GPS Striomo ~' ~
C) _ . . _ _ Analysis of GPS Dall UtinO Ill* GPSTRN P ~ C!Ol'llp955IONll (pt~r iO AID) .... &nlwn~lltP~(") ..... tt-*...,. and SSPX Inversion Algorithm*
'M ra:es'" mm~ S B Gi'S~\i,..1t1hGPS1lUt~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ - ,,_... DCPP SSC RfPORT "', *Wod!".el ffom\N'~*4:01~) *~~..~B!. . .~'~ figure 5*10 GPS Strain Rates from the NeoKlnema Model in South-Central Coastal California DCPP SSC REPORT
FAULT SOURCES o Geometry o Faulting Style (SS, Reverse, Composite) o Ruptures and Rupture Segments o Slip Rate o Slip Rate Allocation (on ruptures) o Magnitude Distribution Models o Time Dependency
Areal Sources and Distant Fault Sources .. . another day
Time Dependency Model Fault Geometry Rupture Slip R.ite Allocation Magnitude Distribution Model (Equivalent Poisson Ratio) Model Model Model (mm/yr) MagniWde PDF Mmax Mchar 8.5 7.3 [0.1) (0.2] 1 H90 H85-01 1.23 WMCY 81 71 [0.25] [0.2] [0.185] (0.8) [0.5) (0.5] 78 6,8 [0.4) [0.3] Hosgri 1.3 H85 H65-02 0.40 Source [0.5] [0.6] [0.630]
------ 8.5 Ir ------ Truncated (0 1]
61 H75 H85-07 0.13 Exponential B.1 NIA ~ 0.3 5 (0.25) [0.2) [0.185] (0.2) [0.5] Ic: 78 [0.4] I 1.6 ov 0.067 [0.185] Ctiaractenstic 6.8 [0.2]
~ SW-01 0.018 Earthquake NIA 6.5
> [0.25) (0.4]
Iii (1.0] [0.5]
... [0.630)
~ 0.005 6.3 ~
------ [0.185] (0.3)
Ci SLBP 1.1 SW SW-04 jr; 0 Sources [0.5] [0.4] ii SW-05 0.164 6.4 tmaln) i.! 0.3 NE SW-06 [0.185] 0.087 Simplified Maximum Magnitude NIA r (1 O] ~ Ii' u (0.25] (0.2) [0.630) 0.046 (1.0] l 6.3 (splay) (1.0]
~
CJI It ------ [0.185] iIll> Ir SW-10
-*~! Logic Tree Structure for the Primary and Connected Fault Sources I
~ ti) Notes: In the example tree. rupture source H85-02 is a longer linked rupture source, so the WMCY and truncated exponential magnitude PDF models are considered. Rupture source sw-01 ls a charactenstJc rupture source. so only the Youngs and Coppersmith (1985) characteristic earthquake magnitude PDF is considered. Rupture source DCPP SSC REPORT 5 SW-06 is a splay rupture source, so only the simplified maximum magnitude earthquake magrutude PDF model is II considered. See text ~ Pacific Gas and Electric Company Figure 6-1 It
FAULT GEOMETRY MODELS (FGM) o Three Hosgri FGMs o Three San Luis-Pismo Block (SLPB) FGMs Table 6-4. Fault Geometiy Models (FGMs) and Logic Tree Combinations SLPB FGMs Outward-Vergent Southwest-Vergent Northeast-Vergent Hosgri FGMs (OV) ( SW) (NE) Hosgri 90 (H90) H90/ 0 V H90J SW H90I NE Hosgri 85 (H85) H8510 V H851 SW H851NE Hosgri 75 (H75) H75/ 0 V H75/SW H751 NE o About 40 rupture segments
Three sets of rupture segments (for the three SLPB FGMs)
RUPTURE SEGMENTS o Outward-Vergent 04 8 ~ ! FiguN Hlilnt and N additional conn.ctlld faua sections ~ ----~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-----
MORE RUPTURE SEGMENTS SW-Vergent NE-Vergent i }
i I
Ae--- i2 ............. _.....,
EXAMPLE: HOSGRI FAULT RUPTURE MODELS Table 9.J. Hosgri Fault Rupture Model Rupture Fault Sections ' Source (closest section to 1he Number Type Description 0 CPP in bold) Sense of Slip HS+HA+HC+HB+HD+ H osgrl (C ent ra I H-01 Linked HN+Sl+SN +GS+GN +S Strike snp tra ce) to MT J 2 A Hosgrl ~est HS +HW+H B+HD+HN + H -0 2 Link ed strike sfip tra ce) to MT J Sl+SN+ GS +GN+S A H osgri (E ast HS +HE+HB+HD+HN+ S H -03 Linked Strike sllp tra ce) to MT J l+SN +GS +GN +SA Primary= H osgrl (C entral HS +HA+HC+HB+W R strike slip H-04 Complex tra ce) wth (prim a ry fa ult) P le dras 81 ancas Secondary= P 8 (secondary fault) reverse HS+HA+HC+HB+HO+ Shoreline wth HN+Sl+SN +GS+GN H-05 Splay H osgri (C ent ra I Strike slip (main fault); tra ce) to Solinas S E+SS+SH (splay fault) H osgrl north of HB+HO +H N+ Sl+S N+G H -063 Lin ked the Shoreline strike slip S +G N+SA fault Intersection H osgri north of HN+Sl+SN +GS +GN +S H -07 3 Linked t he Los Osos strike slip A fault intersection H-083 C haracteristic P iedras Blancas PB Reverse 1 T V\0-letter codes are expl ained in Ta ble 6~ end on Plate 9-1 . 2 MT J =Mendocino Triple Junction 3 Same do\l\ndip geomet ry is used for all three Hosgri FGMs .
THREE SLPM FGMs lj A N A J1
!6'011' J~ ,,.,..
14 L~
IC -
I ** ,.
THREE SLPB FGMs Parameter Values. Los Osos Faut Ollbe rd 'It !EE nt Wt 'It II!e nt NE 'ltrmnt Wt.i-d Medel Wt.ill!ht OA Wt.i!tit* OA Wt.iPlltOJ I'l l& mun Las O ms IC*l~lY-t.I lC*l.Mf-l~U IC *l.Mo-LY.-U summtr. 09' ,0 oil Dill!~n SW 10 SW '° SN
'° 10 ~ t Of~ 111'1l111 1111.-.0 II II Drp1tl to'> p 1 1 1 1 1 1 Wiltrl :a 11 J.4 11 J.4 12..4 S W~rgert NE ~rgert - -.- 1 c N~ : Crc.$ seotk)a 0-0' I *ow* 1> llllS1Fn LU HC1t:>t 01 l.0$ Oros 'CH It.
ue CbSU1JtCtkU 1D lie OCPP. ~ j LO I 010 I Fl ult P1nm tt.r ~ IUt I CCPP I IC RE FORT
! l'Zifc:G:innd ~caric: Co"Pln)' Fg* I! 7-2S C..._~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.......L-~~~~~~~~~"-~~~....1
HOSGRI FAULT SLIP RATE Slip Rate determined from four points
San Simeon
~ >t
Point Estero I
*
Estero Bay

Pont Sal i.
I I\ Pd rt Esten:> I
I I I
I I \ , I I I I I I SCuth?rn
. ,' Estero Bay c
SLIP RATE ESTIMATES (1)otr1tt PDF lb ) JUI tfta t on t>r 0th* t POF
., 801) - - - - - - - - - - t Wu*
Ult . 011..t (m) I tm Bl** II* .....* - - **
~
Slip Rates estimates are
! 10*0- - - * - - - - . - - t ,,.. !Rd , rttaea 311 '-9:1 *'l'llt"'L ~~ ....____
O*Qt'Ot*l'f**" *fl* **
.. ~-*- derived from probability IOmt . _ _ . . . _
0 I Ill lDO Ila ... )Ill 1110 uai. Qi] .........-........".-*-**-
-*~-
lftalwt., .......... u . ti
.. distribution functions (triangle or trapezoidal (c) AQt PCF (d) JuetftCI t on t>r AIP PCF distributions) for measured slip and estimated of offset VllUt ~@!*) BI U age UI* 1S(J *OJllMilll**Pllll,._ .... 1141$ '..I?'!'"' :ID ll) llltAl'ltd tilt) ........ .,~ , *
ti ...
.... ftt:..~a!W\lo lJt. !!!.**a 2f5 ")
We are developing an Excel 100
na N* . 725 spreadsheet to test (f)Sun*1r; Sb~ 1 1k 1 variations In these models.
ClJMUtl t W A'Ot>lbll I * ..,.,:r Slip Rlfit DDS '0
/ 01 ' 2 ,v 02 u 0..5 UJ ,/ 08 2.2 t
IJO I) *a
,/
j
-**.a 20 J~ I I 09 0.95 Ull 23
2. ,
07 t* 'lllt~ lt- * ......., . 2.8 Mun ll
OXYGEN ISOTOPE SEA LEVEL CURVES I MIS S MIS 5 MIS 7 Mii& MIS 11
" ( ua d*m t ea L* 1.1L i
i
( *,. ..
J E ~
~
E i
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i i . Sb i : I! Mii 12 i ~
t i Ml S G c
; MIS B .!!Mii ' 10 e .....&. * ' l .. ~.._,_.,.~l~a1tt,,_ a_1~al~*l~M~*-*l~m~u~m~t)'-1~1~2~ ! ......~,,_~_,.-c ) ~!-..~_..-.-~_,.~~~:_..:__-.-..__.,.....,.__..,.........,.,,_....,.__~,,_,..........,.
a 1
* ~ .-.. 1s. * ,,. .1$6 *.U.
~ AJwmats1.1 AG* Uad*Jci'Dr Unaant'"nl te oln Ibid~* JW1 ! ........... H l-J i H i~ Waelbroeck et al. ,(2002) ; Lisiecki and Raymo (2005) ;. Carlson (2008).
SLIP BASED ON OFFSET MARKERS IMAGED IN OFFSHORE SEISMIC REFLECTION DATA t. l*
~ \~ :
c t: t, . i.. d
\. ~""
1 j 1 .rr

ei
~
w
~ EXPLANAIDN
'i ! --*- rn,,..,..,._..._.,.uw , 1ut ....._ iW# ...i . . IH.Ot H , '"'°""' ... _.,_ hH,_.TN ho#fll Cl>>,_lt"f\I> D ~
, _ , ....1t4'\K... , "'
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E <<** ..n 1t "-'""'t,,_, "'~'" > * ,. ,..,,._..,. ~
~
tt i**ltt;..,._,""' . , ., ,.. ~*U""'fH IKitw ,
*Jt , ..,,_,.._ ,,,..,..,.,.,,.." * .n.cw " "* ** r., .., ..
dO** .UC.1, ,,, *'i . ,.....,,.,_ ct...1;. ., . , ,,,_
,...,, ... ,'°".....," W* I** .tO""' 0..,.,.. _,,,.. 1Ht1. ~ *t. .. n******' '"""*" .,,..,, ,,...
i i .........
*C* t* * "lit* .,,,_., .....,... ,__, .... ,..., ,,. .. ... ~ *"' .. +
0 I JlllO l lllO II E ) 0 ~a 1110 I'i c ea\ro Bl ~* : Pitre Ing Point oa*1 -Et 1-0.
! Stp1ra t on Ind Unctr i ln\*
I ~ 1. 1 OOPP 110 REPORf
MEAN CDF FOR HOSGRI SLIP RATE Slip Rate COF 0.1 Oll 5.Pant o rtr1butlon o.r lllp Rab I~ 0 .1 P*rc*ntl* om'893 mm..-r 0,6 0. 1D1
*.,*c O.ll 0 211702 1 0.2U
_ ,_,-... a.. , . ... . _..*df PJlll O.S 1.1 o.:m o~ 3 - _ .,..,. C....1* o _ . . ,, *
2.J D.2U 0.788296 I
; *"4*df P.'ll r 0.1 D.965107 J .1 0.101 i r:a * **. , - -..* - - ~ * .,. PJI "AtlgHt O Mun 1.7 I! o;i I
r a.* I a D.ll I Q :z.a OJI
*~ ll.O '1*~ I("'""'"' ... '
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a11a11111* *1emti. _.,. ... _ _ ,. ,
- *o ul e CDl * * - 111***
1:11 1' ti**.. H- * *llo **ll * **
Ho agn sup Rab COFO>m p111tlon and Ul*c tlon ot5-Polnt o 11nt>ut on CCPP UC Rf FOIIT
SLIP RATE ALLOCATION MODELS o "A Slip Rate Allocation Model describes the slip rate allocated to individual rupture sources in a single Rupture Model. Accordingly, there is one Slip Rate Allocation Model for the Hosgri Rupture Model (that applies to all three Hosgri FGMs) and three Slip Rate Allocation Models for the SLPB Rupture Models-one each for the OV, SW, and NE Rupture Models." o "The Slip Rate Allocation Model creates a slip rate for each rupture source such that, when the contributions from all rupture sources including a particular fault are summed, the combined slip rate equals the target slip rate budget for that particular fault for that particular Rupture Model."
(b) Slip Rate Allocation Methodology for Mean Slip Rate, Fault Section S5 S4+ S5+S6 (i = 1) = S5+SS (i 2) S1+S4+S5 (i 3) = 1.5 slip rate units 10 shp rate units for 95 0.5 slip rate units 1or 95 50 of total tor S4,S5.S6 33% of total for S5 17% of total for S5 09 slip rate units for SQ 03 slip rate units tor 51 45% of total 4 of total for 51 0 10 ~* m 1 I Notes:
Black lines indicate tJu It rupture .

1value designates eaoh r~pture source lnvohnng fault section S5. The sum ofthe sip rates 1n all three soenanosequals1hetargetmean stiprate brfaultsection S5 (see equauon 9*1)
E XPLAH ATIOH
Site F autt sections: str k e*slip (left), reverse ( right)
Slip Rate Allocation Model Concer1t p) r autt section slip rate. with the v a lue in parentheses. and the width of the line
~) proportional to the s lip rate .
OCPP SSC REPORT idt
\9-1 Fault section IDs ands ection boundary Pac lie Gas and Electric Company f igure 9-9
(I) 1l\Jn: 1* 0 Eepontrrtlal , u_ J" M 5
' M~I MAGNITUDE I ~~*
DISTRIBUTION
~* *~
T 'I'; (b)llmpll1l*O ,,_ 11mun Ml giltuot J" s u -u MODELS i ... 1, (c)01arwc9 nat c etr11l~lllt
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* * *-.-1 rM oh l n. " ' .....,. n ..n r*
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TIME DEPENDENCY MODE:L o For another time ....
(/) a: co DIABLO CAN't'ON SEISMIC SOURCE -0
<D
(/) co CHARACTERl2~ATION REVIEW g 5* John Stamatakos ....+ (/) 5/4/2015 ~ co
-0 OJ co co
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""I CJ1 00
CONTEMPORARY TECTONIC SETTING Dextral strike-slip plate boundary with transpression I
\ \
\ I
\
Offshore Santa Maria Basin
GPS S TRAIN RATES (a) Model 3 from Murray (2012} : No Constraints on the (b) Model 4 from Murray (2012): Oceanic-West Huasna Fautt Oceanic-West Huasna Fault Slip Rate Slip Rate Constrained to < 1 mm/yr 37' 34* 0 100 ' 0 100 .... '
- 10 mmlyr X so nS/yt ' , 10 mmlyr X ~o nS/yr - 122* - 121* - 120* - 118" - 117'
122* 121* 120* - 119* ns* -1 17" EXPLANATION FrMfy-sllPJ>jng bouncbry Now: Red numb<<s ;.n slip r.l1e C'I rnrrlyr S8s ot ~ Resolved GPS Strain Rates on arrows ;re nbrNted str31n ~~ *teflSOl'S. Sets of IAd.
Saunc:l.arf on wflich bcMg is Hf!N:e 120" MORE STRAINS ~
~ *i
~
"I \
s.
.,_~~--~~~~--~~~~~.._~~~~~~~~~--
111*:ia 111 1) u1* uo*4~
.....~~~~""-~~~~~
1e1\*
."I* ..... ~ EXPLANATION HNVt lbt. CcmpoMDb*
R z righl-IMrai l z le\\-QIRr.ll l i i ._.
+ e,. ~dpMC.ld 9Vlll'Jllt>>ff GPS Striomo ~' ~
C) _ . . _ _ Analysis of GPS Dall UtinO Ill* GPSTRN P ~ C!Ol'llp955IONll (pt~r iO AID) .... &nlwn~lltP~(") ..... tt-*...,. and SSPX Inversion Algorithm*
'M ra:es'" mm~ S B Gi'S~\i,..1t1hGPS1lUt~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ - ,,_... DCPP SSC RfPORT "', *Wod!".el ffom\N'~*4:01~) *~~..~B!. . .~'~ figure 5*10 GPS Strain Rates from the NeoKlnema Model in South-Central Coastal California DCPP SSC REPORT
FAULT SOURCES o Geometry o Faulting Style (SS, Reverse, Composite) o Ruptures and Rupture Segments o Slip Rate o Slip Rate Allocation (on ruptures) o Magnitude Distribution Models o Time Dependency
Areal Sources and Distant Fault Sources .. . another day
Time Dependency Model Fault Geometry Rupture Slip R.ite Allocation Magnitude Distribution Model (Equivalent Poisson Ratio) Model Model Model (mm/yr) MagniWde PDF Mmax Mchar 8.5 7.3 [0.1) (0.2] 1 H90 H85-01 1.23 WMCY 81 71 [0.25] [0.2] [0.185] (0.8) [0.5) (0.5] 78 6,8 [0.4) [0.3] Hosgri 1.3 H85 H65-02 0.40 Source [0.5] [0.6] [0.630]
------ 8.5 Ir ------ Truncated (0 1]
61 H75 H85-07 0.13 Exponential B.1 NIA ~ 0.3 5 (0.25) [0.2) [0.185] (0.2) [0.5] Ic: 78 [0.4] I 1.6 ov 0.067 [0.185] Ctiaractenstic 6.8 [0.2]
~ SW-01 0.018 Earthquake NIA 6.5
> [0.25) (0.4]
Iii (1.0] [0.5]
... [0.630)
~ 0.005 6.3 ~
------ [0.185] (0.3)
Ci SLBP 1.1 SW SW-04 jr; 0 Sources [0.5] [0.4] ii SW-05 0.164 6.4 tmaln) i.! 0.3 NE SW-06 [0.185] 0.087 Simplified Maximum Magnitude NIA r (1 O] ~ Ii' u (0.25] (0.2) [0.630) 0.046 (1.0] l 6.3 (splay) (1.0]
~
CJI It ------ [0.185] iIll> Ir SW-10
-*~! Logic Tree Structure for the Primary and Connected Fault Sources I
~ ti) Notes: In the example tree. rupture source H85-02 is a longer linked rupture source, so the WMCY and truncated exponential magnitude PDF models are considered. Rupture source sw-01 ls a charactenstJc rupture source. so only the Youngs and Coppersmith (1985) characteristic earthquake magnitude PDF is considered. Rupture source DCPP SSC REPORT 5 SW-06 is a splay rupture source, so only the simplified maximum magnitude earthquake magrutude PDF model is II considered. See text ~ Pacific Gas and Electric Company Figure 6-1 It
FAULT GEOMETRY MODELS (FGM) o Three Hosgri FGMs o Three San Luis-Pismo Block (SLPB) FGMs Table 6-4. Fault Geometiy Models (FGMs) and Logic Tree Combinations SLPB FGMs Outward-Vergent Southwest-Vergent Northeast-Vergent Hosgri FGMs (OV) ( SW) (NE) Hosgri 90 (H90) H90/ 0 V H90J SW H90I NE Hosgri 85 (H85) H8510 V H851 SW H851NE Hosgri 75 (H75) H75/ 0 V H75/SW H751 NE o About 40 rupture segments
Three sets of rupture segments (for the three SLPB FGMs)
RUPTURE SEGMENTS o Outward-Vergent 04 8 ~ ! FiguN Hlilnt and N additional conn.ctlld faua sections ~ ----~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-----
MORE RUPTURE SEGMENTS SW-Vergent NE-Vergent i }
i I
Ae--- i2 ............. _.....,
EXAMPLE: HOSGRI FAULT RUPTURE MODELS Table 9.J. Hosgri Fault Rupture Model Rupture Fault Sections ' Source (closest section to 1he Number Type Description 0 CPP in bold) Sense of Slip HS+HA+HC+HB+HD+ H osgrl (C ent ra I H-01 Linked HN+Sl+SN +GS+GN +S Stri ke snp tra ce) to MT J 2 A Hosgrl ~est HS +HW+H B+HD+HN + H -0 2 Link ed strike sfip tra ce) to MT J Sl+SN+ GS +GN+S A H osgri (E ast HS +HE+HB+HD+HN+ S H -03 Linked Strike sllp tra ce) to MT J l+SN +GS +GN +SA Primary= H osgrl (C entral HS +HA+HC+HB+W R strike slip H-04 Complex tra ce) wth (prim a ry fa ult) P le dras 81 ancas Secondary= P 8 (secondary fault) reverse HS+HA+HC+HB+HO+ Shoreline wth HN+Sl+SN +GS+GN H-05 Splay H osgri (C ent ra I Strike slip (main fault); tra ce) to Solinas S E+SS+SH (splay fault) H osgrl north of HB+HO +H N+ Sl+S N+G H -063 Lin ked the Shoreline strike slip S +G N+SA fault Intersection H osgri north of HN+Sl+SN +GS +GN +S H -07 3 Linked t he Los Osos strike slip A fault intersection H-083 C haracteristic P iedras Blancas PB Reverse 1 T V\0-letter codes are expl ained in Ta ble 6~ end on Plate 9-1 . 2 MT J =Mendocino Triple Junction 3 Same do\l\ndip geomet ry is used for all three Hosgri FGMs .
THREE SLPM FGMs lj A N A J1
!6'011' J~ ,,.,..
14 L~
IC -
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THREE SLPB FGMs Parameter Values. Los Osos Faut Ollbe rd 'It !EE nt Wt 'It II!e nt NE 'ltrmnt Wt.i-d Medel Wt.ill!ht OA Wt.i!tit* OA Wt.iPlltOJ I'l l& mun Las O ms IC*l~lY-t.I lC*l.Mf-l~U IC *l.Mo-LY.-U summtr. 09' ,0 oil Dill!~n SW 10 SW '° SN
'° 10 ~ t Of~ 111'1l111 1111.-.0 II II Drp1tl to'> p 1 1 1 1 1 1 Wiltrl :a 11 J.4 11 J.4 12..4 S W~rgert NE ~rgert - -.- 1 c N~ : Crc.$ seotk)a 0-0' I *ow* 1> llllS1Fn LU HC1t:>t 01 l.0$ Oros 'CH It.
ue CbSU1JtCtkU 1D lie OCPP. ~ j LO I 010 I Fl ult P1nm tt.r ~ IUt I CCPP I IC RE FORT
! l'Zifc:G:innd ~caric: Co"Pln)' Fg* I! 7-2S C..._~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.......L-~~~~~~~~~"-~~~....1
HOSGRI FAULT SLIP RATE Slip Rate determined from four points
San Simeon
~ >t
Point Estero I
*
Estero Bay

Pont Sal i.
I I\ Pd rt Esten:> I
I I I
I I \ , I I I I I I SCuth?rn
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SLIP RATE ESTIMATES (1)otr1tt PDF lb ) JUI tfta t on t>r 0th* t POF
., 801) - - - - - - - - - - t Wu*
Ult . 011..t (m) I tm Bl** II* .....* - - **
~
Slip Rates estimates are
! 10*0- - - * - - - - . - - t ,,.. !Rd , rttaea 311 '-9:1 *'l'llt"'L ~~ ....____
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.. distribution functions (triangle or trapezoidal (c) AQt PCF (d) JuetftCI t on t>r AIP PCF distributions) for measured slip and estimated of offset VllUt ~@!*) BI U age UI* 1S(J *OJllMilll**Pllll,._ .... 1141$ '..I?'!'"' :ID ll) llltAl'ltd tilt) ........ .,~ , *
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We are developing an Excel 100
na N* . 725 spreadsheet to test (f)Sun*1r; Sb~ 1 1k 1 variations In these models.
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OXYGEN ISOTOPE SEA LEVEL CURVES I MIS S MIS 5 MIS 7 Mii& MIS 11
" ( ua d*m t ea L* 1.1L i
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a 1
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~ AJwmats1.1 AG* Uad*Jci'Dr Unaant'"nl te oln Ibid~* JW1 ! ........... H l-J i H i~ Waelbroeck et al. ,(2002) ; Lisiecki and Raymo (2005) ;. Carlson (2008).
SLIP BASED ON OFFSET MARKERS IMAGED IN OFFSHORE SEISMIC REFLECTION DATA t. l*
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i i .........
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! Stp1ra t on Ind Unctr i ln\*
I ~ 1. 1 OOPP 110 REPORf
MEAN CDF FOR HOSGRI SLIP RATE Slip Rate COF 0.1 Oll 5.Pant o rtr1butlon o.r lllp Rab I~ 0 .1 P*rc*ntl* om'893 mm..-r 0,6 0. 1D1
*.,*c O.ll 0 211702 1 0.2U
_ ,_,-... a.. , . ... . _..*df PJlll O.S 1.1 o.:m o~ 3 - _ .,..,. C....1* o _ . . ,, *
2.J D.2U 0.788296 I
; *"4*df P.'ll r 0.1 D.965107 J .1 0.101 i r:a * **. , - -..* - - ~ * .,. PJI "AtlgHt O Mun 1.7 I! o;i I
r a.* I a D.ll I Q :z.a OJI
*~ ll.O '1*~ I("'""'"' ... '
Mlle . r i. H111111u 1110 111* CDI
a11a11111* *1emti. _.,. ... _ _ ,. ,
- *o ul e CDl * * - 111***
1:11 1' ti**.. H- * *llo **ll * **
Ho agn sup Rab COFO>m p111tlon and Ul*c tlon ot5-Polnt o 11nt>ut on CCPP UC Rf FOIIT
SLIP RATE ALLOCATION MODELS o "A Slip Rate Allocation Model describes the slip rate allocated to individual rupture sources in a single Rupture Model. Accordingly, there is one Slip Rate Allocation Model for the Hosgri Rupture Model (that applies to all three Hosgri FGMs) and three Slip Rate Allocation Models for the SLPB Rupture Models-one each for the OV, SW, and NE Rupture Models." o "The Slip Rate Allocation Model creates a slip rate for each rupture source such that, when the contributions from all rupture sources including a particular fault are summed, the combined slip rate equals the target slip rate budget for that particular fault for that particular Rupture Model."
(b) Slip Rate Allocation Methodology for Mean Slip Rate, Fault Section S5 S4+ S5+S6 (i = 1) = S5+SS (i 2) S1+S4+S5 (i 3) = 1.5 slip rate units 10 shp rate units for 95 0.5 slip rate units 1or 95 50 of total tor S4,S5.S6 33% of total for S5 17% of total for S5 09 slip rate units for SQ 03 slip rate units tor 51 45% of total 4 of total for 51 0 10 ~* m 1 I Notes:
Black lines indicate tJu It rupture .

1value designates eaoh r~pture source lnvohnng fault section S5. The sum ofthe sip rates 1n all three soenanosequals1hetargetmean stiprate brfaultsection S5 (see equauon 9*1)
E XPLAH ATIOH
Site F autt sections: str k e*slip (left), reverse ( right)
Slip Rate Allocation Model Concer1t p) r autt section slip rate. with the v a lue in parentheses. and the width of the line
~) proportional to the s lip rate .
OCPP SSC REPORT idt
\9-1 Fault section IDs ands ection boundary Pac lie Gas and Electric Company f igure 9-9
(I) 1l\Jn: 1* 0 Eepontrrtlal , u_ J" M 5
' M~I MAGNITUDE I ~~*
DISTRIBUTION
~* *~
T 'I'; (b)llmpll1l*O ,,_ 11mun Ml giltuot J" s u -u MODELS i ... 1, (c)01arwc9 nat c etr11l~lllt
'-S.
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i, I SCl1tm 1 tlc 0Jgf1 m I Of MagnltuO* A"ODlbW\* 08 na lt,* Rmctlon a u HO In 1* tl1e CUt>IO an~* on I SC Model
* * *-.-1 rM oh l n. " ' .....,. n ..n r*
111t* *a.mr<<*--* **
*-1-.111a1 1r . . . . ... .,. . . . . 'li.......... ,-;r~* .--
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,ff EACH RUPTURE ll'n,. . . . *llll' 111n11 SOURCE ASSIGNED TO ONE OF THREE ... ...._ l oil -* * *~* 1- liillfr-MI .-.* * * ~
MD Ms l l!llil . ..,. . . . . . -.I -11 111JP~li* 'r9
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TIME DEPENDENCY MODE:L o For another time ....
John Stamatakos From:John Stamatakos Sent:4 May 2015 18:03:37 +0000 To:Giacinto, Joseph (Josepb.Giacinto @nrc.gov);'Miriam R. Juckett'
Subject:
FW: Diablo SSC Attachments:Diablo Canyon Seismic Source Characterization Review I .pdf From: John Stamatakos Sent: Monday, May 4, 2015 2:01 PM To: Stovall, Scott (Scott.Stovall@nrc.gov)
Subject:
FW: Diablo SSC From: John Stamatakos Sent: Monday, May 4, 2015 9:37 AM To: Graizer, Vladimir {Vladimir.Graizer@nrc.gov)
Subject:
FW: Diablo SSC From : John Stamatakos [ mailto:john.stamatakos@qmail.com] Sent: Monday, May 4, 2015 9:33 AM To: John Stamatakos
Subject:
Diablo SSC
John Stamatakos From:John Stamatakos Sent:6 Apr2015 19:45:53 +0000 To:Ake, Jon (Jon.Ake@nrc.gov);Munson, Clifford (Clifford.Munson@nrc.gov);Graizer, Vladimir (Vladimir.Graizer@nrc.gov)
Subject:
FW: Password for Secured PDF Files From one of my staff working on the Diablo SSC reports. John From: Sarah Wigginton Sent: Monday, April 6, 2015 3:31 PM To: John Stamatakos Cc: Ronald McGinnis
Subject:
Password for Secured PDF Files
John, I'm working on finishing up the Diablo Canyon Document Catalog and I've noticed t hat some of PDF files are "secured" so I am unable to copy any of the material (titles, sources, etc.). Working with an un-secured version would greatly speed up the process of cataloging the figures!
Would it be possible to get my hands on a password for the "DCPP SSC Report Rev A"? Best,.. Sarah Sarah Wigginton Department of Earth, Material, and Planetary Sciences Geosciences. and Engineering Division Southwest Research Institute 6220 Culebra Road, San Antonio, TX 78238, USA
John Stamatakos From:John Stamatakos Sent:4 May 2015 12:40:07 +0000 To:John Stamatakos
Subject:
FW: PG&E: Diablo Canyon Public Meeting on April 28 Attachments:NRC Public Meeting 4-28 Seismic Final.pdf From: John Stamatakos Sent: Monday, May 4, 2015 8:39 AM To: John Stamatakos
Subject:
FW: PG&E: Diablo canyon Public Meeting on April 28 From : Difrancesco, Nicholas [3] Sent: Sunday, April 26, 2015 10:42 PM To: Munson, Clifford; Ake, Jon; John Stamatakos; Brittain Hill; Graizer, Vladimir Cc: Jackson, Diane; Shams, Mohamed; Vega, Frankie; Walker, Wayne; Alexander, Ryan; Moreno, Angel; Uselding, Lara; Burnell, Scott; Kock, Andrea; Scott Flanders; Maier, Bill; Roth(OGC), David; Lindell, Joseph; Uttal, Susan; Markley, Michael; Lingam, Siva; Hipschman, Thomas; Wyman, Stephen
Subject:
PG&E: Diablo Canyon Public Meeting on April 28
Folks, Attached are the PG&E slides in support of the Tuesday public meeting. NRC slides will be available. tomorrow morning.
Please forward to those I may have missed.
Thanks, Nick From: Jahangir, Nozar [ mailto:NxJl@pge.com]
Sent: Sunday, April 26, 2015 7:58 PM To: Difrancesco, Nicholas; Soenen, Philippe R Cc: Strickland, Jearl
Subject:
Diablo Canyon Public Meeting on April 28 Philippe; Attached is the DCPP presentation for the subject meeting. I will also take 30 hardcopies with me, as well. I will be travelling on Monday and will be in Rockville on Monday night. We also need the Web access number and passcode for Technical PG&E staff that will be calling in support of the presentation . Thanks
Nozar Jahangir P.E. Manager, Technical Services Diablo Canyon Seismic Engineering 805-545-6512 (bl( 5l (cell ) nx1 pge.com From: Difrancesco, Nicholas [4] Sent: Thursday, April 23, 2015 10:33 AM To:. Soenen, Philippe R Cc: Jahangir, Nozar; Vega, Frankie; Shams, Mohamed; Jackson, Diane
Subject:
NRC Technical Focus Areas for Support of Public Meeting on April 28 Mr. Soenen, In support of the public meeting scheduled for April 28, 2015, the NRG staff would like to gain additional technical understanding in several areas to support productive public meeting discussions. In addition to providing a general overview of the SSC and GMC SSHAC Reports and March 2015 50.54(f) response for DCPP, please provide additional clarification on the following topics. Seismic Source Characterization
1. Summarize the key data used to constrain the slip rate of the Hosgri fault, including associated uncertainties.

2. Clarify how elements of the thrust/reverse interpretation for the San Luis Range Thrust are incorporated into the SSC.

3. Clarify how the rupture models are derived from the fa ult source geometry models.

4. Summarize the methodology used to define the equivalent Poisson rates.
Ground Motion Characterization
1. Provide additional detail on the criteria used for the selection of the candidate ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for development of the common form median ground motion models for DCPP. Specifically, please elaborate on the basis for including GMPEs based on datasets other than NGA-West2.

2. Provide additional detail on development of the common functional form used to fit the candidate GMPEs. Specifically, please discuss how model parameters such as depth to.
Vs= 1 km/sand 2.5 km/s (which are present in some of the candidate GMPEs) are accounted for in the functional form.
3. Provide additional detail on the approach tor weighting the selected common form models as well as the criteria used to verify the physicality of the final models.

4. Provide additional detail on how the continuous distribution for total sigma (ass) was developed by combining the between-event and within-event aleatory variabilities.
Site Response
1. Section 2.3.2.1 of the 50.54(f) submittal states that shear modulus and damping curves are not directly applicable to DCPP since analytical modeling is not used and that non-linear site effects are implicitly included in the empirical GMPEs for Vs30= 760 m/s. However, the NGA-West2 database has a limited amount of data for sites with Vs30 near 760 m/s and for earthquakes with magnitudes and source-to-site distances similar to those dominating the hazard for DCPP. Please provide additional information on how these limitations in the NGA-West2 database are accounted for in the site response model for DCPP.

2. Section 2.3.6 of the 50.54(f) submittal describes the development of the site term for DCPP. For the calculations of between-event residuals, provide additional information on the criteria used to determine the appropriate distance range(+ and - Rrup) to the sample station. Please discuss the sensitivity of this distance range on between-event residual values. Please provide an example calculation that uses site-specific values to determine the values for cp525 , including the epistemic uncertainty in the site term.
Please let me know if you have any questions on the above focus areas.
Thanks, Nick DiFrancesco Senior Project Manager - Seismic Reevaluation Activities U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation Japan Lesson Learned Project Division nicholas.difrancesco@nrc.gov I Tel: (301) 415-1115 PG&E is comm itted to protecting our customers' privacy.
To learn more, please visit http://www.pge.com/about/company/privacy/customer/
Hill, Brittain From:Hill, Brittain Sent: l 8 Mar 2015 13:47:22 -0400 To:John Stamatakos;Miriam R. Juckett
Subject:
FW: Plan updated! Some updates added recently for WUS topics, and current status of different plants (Regional sections at end) Britt From: Gibson, Lauren Sent: Wednesday, May 21, 2014 2:41 PM To: Difrancesco, Nicholas; Burnell, Scott; Hill, Brittain
Subject:
Plan updated! Thank you for your help. The ADAMS version of the Communication Plan has been updaced. I've sent it to the State Liaison Officer Program contact. View ADAMS P8 Properties ML14083A619 Open ADAMS P8 Document (5/2 1/20 l 4, Communication Plan for Seismic Hazard Re-Evaluation Subm ittals in Response to NTTF Recommendation 2. l, Seismic) Lauren
Sent:9 Apr 2015 20:50:07 +0000 To:David Ferrill;Sarah Wigginton;Kevin Smart;Alan Morris;Alan Morris l(b)(6) b
Subject:
FW: Work in progress ... FYI. Many thanks Sarah!! From: Ronald McGinnis. Sent: Thursday, April 09, 2015 3:49 PM To: John Stamatakos Cc: Miriam R. Juckett
Subject:
RE: Work in progress...
John, Thanks John. I will send you the link to the spreadsheet and an ArcGIS project tomorrow.
David, Alan, and I are on travel May 4-8. The calendar shows Kevin and Sarah being here. I will pass along your thanks. -Ronny From: John Stamatakos Sent:.Thursday, April 09, 2015 3:43 PM To: Ronald McGinnis Cc: Miriam R. Juckett
Subject:
RE: Work in progress... I have looked it over and I think it's a good summary. I don' t have any changes now. I have not seen the data catalog, but sounds like you are working on it. I would like to have them tomorrow, so I can go through them and present them to the NRC team on Monday. Tell the team, especially Sarah, many thanks from me. Also, it looks like one of the NRC seismologists, Jon Ake, may be in San Antonio for a kickoff of another project in early May (4-6} . Are you around then? John
From: Ronald McGinnis Sent: Thursday, April 9, 2015 4:29 PM To: John Stamatakos Cc: Alan Morris; David Ferrill; Sarah Wigginton; Alan Morris ~(bl( l
Subject:
RE: Work in progress... 5 I); Kevin Smart
John, Have you had a chance to look at the document Alan sent? If you get a chance can you let us know what you think and if any changes are needed? Just so you are aware, Kevin and Alan are lead ing a field seminar in Death Valley and. Owens Valley returning Thursday of next week.
David and I are leading one all next week to West Texas. The week after that (April 20-24) we all will be in the field in West Texas (including Sarah) . Sarah finished the data catalog and I am going through it now evaluating the data quality. There are 1300 rows!! David, Sarah, and I are all in tomorrow if we need to discuss anyth ing.
Thanks, Ronny Ronald N. M cGinnis rmcginnis@swri.org Senior Research Scientist Department of Earth, Mat erial, and Planetary Sciences Southwest Research Institute 6220 Culebra Road San Antonio, Texas 78238-5166 Office: 210-522-5825 Mobile:_ r _)(-6 )_ _ _ __
From: Alan Morris Sent: Monday, April 06, 2015 3:06 PM To: Ronald McGinnis; David Ferrill; Sarah Wigginton; Kevin Smart
Cc: John Stamatakos
Subject:
RE: Work in progress... OK, it's 8 pages, and maybe too long, but for some reason these reports are always prolix. Is this what we need? Does it need pruning? Does it need analysis? Does it need anything? Alan Alan Morris Department of Earth, Material,. and Planetary Sciences Gcoscicnces and. Engineering Division Southwest Research Institute 6220 Culebra Road. San Antonio, TX 78238. USA Tel: 210.522.6743 Fax: 210.522.5155 Web page: http://www.swri.org/4org/d20/geosci/structur.htm hltp://3dstress.swri.org/ From: Alan Morris Sent: Friday, April 03, 2015 4:51 PM To: Ronald McGinnis; David Ferrill; Sarah Wigginton; Kevin Smart Cc: John Stamatakos
Subject:
Work in progress... T:\Diablo Canyon\Diablo Canyon\CNWRA report April 2015\DiabloCanyonPowerPlant - seismic risk data survey April 2015.docx I was planning to cycle back through adding important conclusions for every chapter, but any of us could do that... Chapter 1 is very useful in giving summaries of the data and goals for each of the subsequent chapters. For the tornado diagram, equations 1-1and1-2 in chapter 13 are the key. Gotta check posters for next week... Happy Easter Alan
Alan Morris Depariment of Earth, Material, and Planetary Sciences Geosciences and Engineering Division Southwest Research lnstilule 6220 Culebra Road. San Antonio. TX 78238, USA Tel: 210.522.6743 Fax: 210.522.S I SS Web page: hllp://www.swri.org/4org/d20/geosci/structur.htm http://3dstress.swri&J:d
BEFORE THE PUBLIC UTILITIES COM M ISSION OF TH E STATE OF CALI FORN IA Application of Pacific Gas and Electric ) Company for Compliance Review of Utility ) Owned Generation Operations, Electric Energy ) Resource Recovery Account Entries, Contract ) Application 15-02-023 Administration, Economic Dispatch of Electric ) (Filed February 27, 2015) Resources, Utility Retained Generation Fuel ) Procurement, and Other Activities for the Period ) Jan uary 1 through December 31, 2013. ) (U 39 E) ) ~~~~~~~~~~~~) ALLIANCE FOR NUCLEAR RESPONSIBILITY'S PROTEST JOHN L. GEESMAN DICKSON GEESMAN LLP 1999 Harrison Street, Suite 2000 Oakland, CA 94612 Telephone: (510) 899-4670 Facsimile: (510) 899-4671 E-Mail: john@dicksongeesman.com Date : April 3, 2015 Attorney for ALLIANCE FOR NUCLEAR RESPONSIBILITY
TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION. . 1 II. CHERRY-PEEVEY EMAILS REVEAL POST-FUKUSHIMA PR PLOY. 2 Ill. AB 1632 PROGRAM'S REVIEW SAFEGUARDS WERE BREACHED. 4 IV. PG&E SENT 'FINAL' REPORT TO THE NRC WITH NO IRPR REVIEW. 5 V. PG&E' s 2014 'FINAL' REPORT STONEWALLED IPRP 2013 CRITIQUE. 7 VI. DR. BLAKESLEE SPOTLIGHTS PG&E's DECEPTIVE PATTERN. 14 VII. PG&E' s POST-CCCSIP CONTEMPTUOUS DISCLOSURE. 16 VIII. TO LIVE OUTSIDE THE LAW YOU MUST BE HONEST. 18 IX. WHY A4NR PROTESTS. 21 APPENDIX A: PG&E SPECTRA CHARTS FROM CCCSIP REPORT A-1 APPENDIX B: PG&E LATE-DISTRIBUTED HAZARD CHART B-1
TABLE OF AUTHORITIES CALIFORNIA STATUTES AB 1632 ...................................................................................................... i, 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 20 CALIFORNIA PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION RULES Rule 2.6 ........................................................................... .................................................................... .................. .........1 CALIFORNIA PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION DECISIONS D.10-08-003 ................................................... ............. .................... ..................... ........................... ..................... 1, 4, 12 D.12-09-008 ................... .................................................................... .. ................ ................. ........................... 1, 4, S, 12 D.14-08-032 ..... ........................... ...... ............ .... ................... ........................... ...... ............ .... ................... ...................... 1 OTHER AUTHORITIES IPRP Report No. 1 ............................ .................................................................... ........................................................ 12 IPRP Report No. 2 ..........................................................................................................................................................4. IPRP Report No. 3 ...................................................................................................................................................... 4, 5 IPRP Report No. 6 ......... ............. ..... .................................................. .. ........... ..... ......................................... S, 6, 7, 9, 13 IPRP Report No. 8 .......... .... ............... ................... ............. .................. ................ ..................... .................. 10, 11, 12, 16 IPRP Report No. 9 ...... .......... ........... ................ .. ....................................... ........... ................ .. ..................... 7, 8, 9, 10, 13. ii
I.. INTRODUCTION .. Pursuant to Rule 2.6 of the Rules of Practice and Procedure of the California Public Utilities Commission ("Commission" or "CPUC"), the Alliance for Nuclear Responsibility ("A4NR") files its Protest to a portion of the 2014 Energy Resource Recovery Account Compliance ("ERRA Compliance") application filed by the Pacific Gas and Electric Company ("PG&E"). A4NR objects to PG&E's recovery of certain balances recorded in the Diablo Canyon Seismic Studies Balancing Account ("DCSSBA") for 2014 costs which fail to comply with D.12 008 and D.10-08-003 and, consequently, were not reasonably incurred. Additionally, D.14 032 directed PG&E to transfer funding for its Long Term Seismic Program ("LTSP"), including the Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee ("SSHAC") process, to the DCSSBA effective January 1, 2014, subject to reasonableness review in the ERRA Compliance process. 1 A4NR protests recovery of certain LTSP amounts as well. A4NR's Protest focuses on PG&E's continued evasion of the Independent Peer Review Panel ("IPRP") established by the Commission to assist in the oversight of the ratepayer-funded AB 1632 seismic studies. The legal and factual grounds for the 2014 Protest are similar to those cited in A4NR's protest of PG&E's still-pending 2013 ERRA Compliance application, A.14-02-008, broadened to include the LTSP to the extent that non-compliant avoidance of IPRP review has contaminated core assumptions used in PG&E's SSHAC reports. Sadly, the 2013 evidence cited in A4NR's opening and reply briefs in A.14-02-008 has been augmented by increasingly brazen defiance by PG&E of D.12-09-008 and D.10-08-003, as outlined herein. 1 D.14-08-032, OP 29 a. The Commission stated, "We find this disposition to be a reasonable. approach to improving oversight of the LTSP costs," (Id., p. 411) and, "We find this disposition to be a reasonable approach to assure the proper integration of Assembly Bill (AB) 1632 seismic studies with the LTSP and the SSHAC process." (Id.,
p. 412) 1
II. CHERRY-PEEVEY EMAILS REVEAL POST-FUKUSHIMA PR PLOY. A4NR' s Protest coincidentally follows the recent revelation of unreported ex parte communications in 2011 between PG&E Vice President Brian Cherry and Commission President Michael Peevey concerning PG&E's A.10-01-022, which sought ratepayer funding for the relicensing of the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant ("DCNPP" ). Five days after the Fukushima accident, AU Robert Barnett had taken the A.10-01-022 evidentiary hearing scheduled for April 13, 2011 off calendar. On April 11, 2011 - just one month after t he Japanese meltdown -- PG&E ceremon iously announced it would accelerate completion of the AB 1632 seismic studies and requested the U.S. Nuclear Regu latory Commission ("NRC") "to delay final action on the utility's on-going license renewal application until PG&E submits the findings. " 2 That same day, Mr. Cherry and President Peevey had the following exchange :3 From: Cherry, Brian K [5] Sent: Mon 4/ 11 /2011 2:49 PM To: Peevey, Michael R.
Subject:
FW : Diablo Canyon License Renewal Attached is the letter mentioned in the press release. From: Peevey, Michael R. [6] Sent: Monday, April 11 , 20114:34 PM To: Cherry, Brian K
Subject:
RE: Diablo Canyon License Renewal Very good. Prudent thing to do and should reduce some fears, concerns. 2
" PG&E Commit s to Finishing 3-D Seismic St udies Relat ed to Diablo Canyon Before Seeking Final Issuance of Renewed Licenses," news release from PG&E Extern al. Comm unicat ions, April 11, 2011. The release quot ed John Conway, Senior Vice President of Energy Supply and Chief Nucl ear Officer: "We recognize that m any in the public have called for this research to be completed before the NRC rene ws the plant's licenses, " said Conway. "We are being responsive to this concern by seeking to expeditiously complete the 3-D seismic studies ond provide those findings to the commission and other interested parties so that they m ay have added assurance of the plant's seismic integrity. "
3 Accessible at ftp://ftp2.cpuc.ca.gov/PG&E20150130ResponseToA1312012Ruling/2011/04/SB GT&S 0001262.pdf 2
From : Cherry, Brian K [7] Sent: Mon 4/ 11 /2011 4:47 PM To: Peevey, Michael R.
Subject:
RE: Diablo Canyon License Renewal ... and resurrect our application and get it back on track ? From: Peevey, Michael R. [8] Sent: Monday, April 11 , 2011 5:04 PM To: Cherry, Brian K
Subject:
RE: Diablo Canyon License Renewal Yep. I will have Carol talk to Barnett. From: Cherry, Brian K [9] Sent: Mon 4/11/2011 5:05 PM To: Peevey, Michael R.
Subject:
RE: Diablo Canyon License Renewal Thanks. The sooner the better. From : Peevey, Michael R. [mailto:michael.peevey@cpuc.ca.gov) Sent: Monday, April 11 , 2011 5:08 PM To: Cherry, Brian K
Subject:
RE: Diablo Canyon License Renewal May. From: Cherry, Brian K Sent: 4/ 11/20 11 5:09:40 PM To: 'Peevey, Michael R.'(michael.peevey@epue.ea.gov) Cc: Bee:
Subject:
RE: Diablo Canyon License Renewal Great. And thanks again. 3
Ill. AB 1632 PROGRAM'S REVIEW SAFEGUARDS WERE BREACHED. A4NR relied upon the establishment of the IPRP by the Commission in D.10-08-003 to ensure that the AB 1632 studies were conducted as robust scientific inquiry and not as a public relations exercise. As AU Barnett made clear in that proceeding: And I say this, and I'll say it on the record, that part of this is because I don't want the Commission to be in a position of just accepting what the utilities tell us without looking at it. We've gotten in that position too many times, and I feel that the way to avoid that problem that we are just taking the utility at its word without the expertise to determine the reasonableness of that. That is why I think the IPRP is valuable, and why they should have an expert witness to review this stuff. 4 The protocols for IPRP-PG&E interactions articulated in IPRP Report No. 2, 5 repeated verbatim in IPRP Report No. 3, 6 and reinforced by the admonition in D.12-09-008 ("We expect PG&E to 4 A.10-11-015 Transcript, p. 263. 5 IPRP Report No. 2, September 7, 2011, pp. 8 - 9: "The IPRP expects that:
PG&E will provide its study plans and draft completed study findings to the IPRP for review. These include studies summarized in CPUC Decision 10-08-003 including off-shore, on-shore, and ocean bottom studies, and seismic studies recommended in the AB 1632. Report.

The IPRP, coordinated by the California Geological Survey (CGS), will review and provide comments on PG&E's study.plans.. The goal will. be, if possible, to provide comments within. 30 days of receipt.

The IPRP, coordinated by the CGS, will review and provide comments on PG&E's draft completed study findings to the CPUC. The goal will be to provide comments as promptly as possible.

PG&E will review and, if possible, within 30 days incorporate the IPRP's recommendations and comments in PG&E's revised study plans and revised completed study findings and prepare for the IPRP a 'Response to Comments' for the IPRP to document scientifically why PG&E accepted or rejected the IPRP's comments.

PG&E and the IPRP will participate in quarterly meetings/briefings to review the status of PG&E's seismic studies, any changes in the. study plans, and any preliminary study findings.

PG&E and the IPRP will prepare a master schedule incorporating the major milestones for the IPR P's review process and will include these milestones in PG&E's monthly progress reports and schedule to the NRC and the Atomic Safety and licensing Board.

The CPUC and CEC will address any major scientific or technical issues that have not been resolved informally between the IPRP and PG&E. CPUC Decision 10-08-003 states that, 'Should a dispute arise it should be resolved informally but if that is not attainable the Commission has authority to halt the associated rate recovery.' In addition, the. CEC may report on any seismic issues and updates through its IEPR process. However, we anticipate that any major scientific or technical issue that may arise can be addressed and resolved informally.
The. quarterly briefings/meetings. mentioned above. will allow PG&E to report on its progress and help facilitate a productive informal exchange of scientific viewpoints." 4.
continue. to meet with the. IPRP to present and review changes to the. seismic study plans, to provide process updates to the IPRP regarding implementation of the studies, and to receive IPRP comments. " 7), offered at least theoretical protection from the PG&E misconduct which surfaced in 2013 and worsened in 2014. IV. PG&E SENT 'FINAL' REPORT TO THE NRC WITH NO IRPR REVIEW. PG&E submitted what it labeled the 'Jina/" AB 1632 report to the NRC on September 10, 2014, six days after the evidentiary hearing in A.14-02-008, and without providing even a draft of the submittal to the IPRP. As the Director of PG&E's Geosciences Department explained at the A.14-02-008 hearing, PG&E had decided that the IPRP was only entitled to receive 8 9 'Jinalized" results of the studies after PG&E had issued a 'Jinal" report to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. 10 As described in the evidentiary record of A.14-02-008, the extensive criticism of PG&E's ground motion assumptions at the July 11, 2013 IPRP meeting, followed by the eviscerating IPRP Report No. 6, appears to have significantly chilled relations between PG&E and the IPRP. One month after publication of IPRP Report No. 6, PG&E regul ato ry affairs personnel were complaining to CPUC staff about self-initiated reports by the IPRP and questioning whether the IPRP could be "decommissioned" after submittal of the 'Jina/" report. 11 6 IPRP Report No. 3, April 6, 2012, pp. 8 - 9. 7 0 .12-09-008, p. 16. 8 Richard Klimczak, PG&E, A.14-02-008 Transcript, p. 139, In. 16; p. 141, In. 14. 9 Id., p. 140, In. 21; p. 141, In. 22.; p. 142, In. 7. 10 Id., p. 140, In. 25. 11 A4NR Opening Brief, A.14-02-008, pp. 27 - 29 citing three internal PG&E emails dated September 16, 2013. 5
It had taken more than six months. of repeated requests by IPRP chair Chris Wills to. obtain PG&E' s documentation of its. Vs measurements at the DCNPP plant site, and. his efforts established that PG&E's Vs assumptions had a 50% greater impact on the. seismic hazard calculation than the. slip rate on the Hosgri Fault, previously. labeled the top uncertainty in the PG&E model. And IPRP Report No. 6 was unsparing in its criticism of PG&E's assumptions:
To prioritize the main targets of the AB 1632 onshore and offshore geophysical studies,. the IPRP earlier asked PG&E for sensitivity analyses of the. probabilistic hazards. PG&E's 2011 response ranked uncertainty in the slip rate of the Hosgri Fault as clearly the most significant, with a "calculated ground motion hazard that varies by a factor of nearly 2. " 12

Changing PG&E's base case ground motion characterization of V530 of 1200 m/s to a generic site. with a V530 of 760 m/s. ("more consistent with other soft rock sites in California" 13 ) "increases the hazard by more than a factor of 3" 14 and changing PG&E's assumed site condition to a generic site with a V530 of1000 m/s "increases hazard by a factor of 2." 15
* "Compared to traditional approaches, the PG&E method resulted in lower ground motion hazard estimates, particularly in the spectral period range important to
[Diablo Canyon] ... " In contrast, "{a) lower V530 brings the estimated ground motion hazards beyond the original design level when used in typical, state-of-the-practice seismic hazard analysis... " 16
The IPRP questioned whether PG&E's approach adequately captured shear wave velocities at different depths beneath the plant: "With only three profiles, it is unlikely that one of them represents the lowest velocity material underlying the plant.
Some of the variability seen in the 1978 data. may reflect poor quality of the Vs measurements made 35 years ago. Interpretations of that data, however, appear to include unconservative assumptions of velocity in boreholes where no velocity was recorded... " 17 12 IPRP Report No. 6, p. 17. 13 Id., p. 3. 14 Id., p. 18. 1s Id. 16 Id., p . 3. 17 Id., p. 6. 6
Nor was newer data from the ISFSl 18 site without problem : "these two profiles do not give consistent Vs measurements at given depths. Considerable variability exists at some depth ranges ... they do not help constrain the lower bound or range of velocity at the plant site." 19
* "A complete consideration of site conditions across the plant footprint requires additional Vs measurements using modern technology to constrain the uncertainty and yield more reliable site Vs values."20 V. PG&E' s 2014 'FINAL' REPORT STONEWALLED IPRP 2013 CRITIQUE.
Despite written assurances to the CPUC staff in response to IPRP Report No. 6 that "PG&E understands the scientific findings and will conduct the further studies noted,"21 and internal acknowledgment within PG&E's Geosciences Department that "The recommended tasks described in the conclusion are reasonable and we plan to address them as part of our own updated site response evaluation,"22 t he so-called final" report submitted to the NRC on September 10, 2014 is willfully unresponsive. As summarized in the IPRP' s belated review of the ground motion chapters of the 2014 "final" AB 1632 report:
IPRP Report No. 6 noted that 'Vs data at the DCPP site indicate significant variability
/uncertainty' and that PG&E's estimates "appear to include unconservative assumptions of velocity in boreholes'. IPRP recommended additional studies to determine the Vs beneath DCPP and the variability of Vs. 23 (emphasis added)
IPRP Report No. 6 recommended that PG&E 'demonstrate that the low site amplification seen at the DCPP site is due to site effects, not specific to. the azimuths and distances traveled by the recorded ground motions at the site from the two earthquakes used' 18 "ISFSI" is an acronym for Independent Spent Fuel Storage Installation.
19 IPRP Report No. 6, pp. 6 - 7. 20 Id., p. 6. 21 A4NR Opening Brief, A.14-02-008, p. 30, citing PG&E's October 10, 2013 written response to IPRP Report No. 6. 22 A4NR Opening Brief, A.14-02-008, p. 31, citing September 9, 2013 email from Dr. Norman Abrahamson to Richard Klimczak. 23 IPRP Report No. 9, pp. 2 - 3. 7
and 'justify the adequacy of using only two earthquakes to characterize site amplification'. 24 (emphasis added)
In response, PG&E confirmed in a letter to CPUC {PG&E, 2013} that it would conduct further studies to improve the quantification of site conditions and amplification. These studies would: (1) use new data from on-land exploration geophysics surveys to develop a 30 model of shear wave velocity beneath the plant site; (2) analyze broad band ground motion. data and ground motionsfrom small. earthquakes to better quantify site-specific amplification. terms;. and (3) evaluate.site amplification using analytical approaches in which seismic waves are propagated through a velocity model. The CCCSIP report addressed the first study as discussed in detail in the remainder of this IPRP report, but not the second and third studies. 25 (emphasis added)

The high-resolution tomographic model of the area near DCPP presented in the CCCSIP report shows details of the variation in. interpreted velocity. Important elements of this detailed model include: relatively low near-surface velocities in areas with remaining natural soil; relatively high near-surface velocities underlying much of the plant itself; highly variable estimates of V530; and irregularly shaped subsurface regions interpreted to have high velocity. 26

While each of these features of the tomographic model may represent improved understanding of the. 'site conditions' at DCPP and may lead to.decreased uncertainty in seismic hazard estimates, PG&E has not confirmed the uncertainties in these velocity estimates. Moreover, the CCCSI P report has an extensive discussion of the difficulty of gaining accurate tomographic results at shallow depths, given the constrained source-receiver locations. 27 (emphasis added)

Differences between V5 profiles measured in 1978 and profiles derived from the tomographic model may reflect poor data or poor. resolution. in the 1978 profiles. If the 1978 downhole velocity surveys represent 'ground truth',. however,. it appears that the.
tomographic model does not show some shallow high velocity layers up to 50' thick or low velocity layers up to 100' thick. The lack of correspondence between measured Vs 24 Id., p. 3. 25 Id. The "final" AB 1632 Report is also refe rred to as the " CCCSIP" report, an acronym for Central Coastal California Seismic Imaging Project. 26 Id., p . 4. 21 Id. 8
profiles and Vs profiles estimated from the tomographic model suggests significant uncertainty remains in estimates of "site conditions" at DCPP. 28 (emphasis added)
The IPRP cannot determine if these differences reflect poor data or analysis in one or both measurements of VS or if both surveys are essentially correct, but have differing levels of spatial resolution. Certainly, the differences. between VS profiles from the tomographic model and previously measured VS profiles should have been addressed in the CCCSIP report. 29 (emphasis added)

For the DCPP site, the use of single station sigma with site-specific term appears to be the key factor that brings the deterministic spectra below the original design spectra. 30 (emphasis added)

While the single station sigma assumption and especially the site term have a significant effect on hazard, the site term is based on the observations of only two earthquakes. 31 As described in IPRP Report No. 6, the IPRP is not convinced that the 'site term' reflects some property of the site that would affect all earthquakes recorded at DCPP. The alternative hypothesis that additional factors related to the particular source or paths of those two earthquakes remains at least as plausible. 32 (emphasis added)

The CCCSIP report does not include any additional studies to address this issue. The 3D site response analyses proposed by PG&E will not address whether single station sigma model is more reasonable than the ergodic assumption, nor will it reduce uncertainty in the site specific term that is calculated based on two recorded earthquakes. 33 (emphasis added)

Figure 6 compares deterministic spectra for the CCCSIP sensitivity scenario assuming linked co-seismic rupture of the Shoreline, Hosgri, and San Simeon Faults (M7.3}. It shows that deterministic ground motion increases across the spectrum as magnitude for the Shoreline Fault rupture increases from 6. 7 to 7.3. This figure also shows increased ground motion as V530 decreases from 1200 m/s {at the power block foundation level] to 28 Id., p. 5.
29 Id., pp. 5 - 6. 30 Id., p. 12. 31 The NRC staff noted this same limitat ion in its 2012 assessment of PG&E' s single-station-sigma adj ustment at DCN PP, observing, "Generally a larger. number af earthquakes. would be needed to develop confidence in the correction fo ctor." RIL 12-01, p. 59. 32 IPRP Report No. 9, p. 12. 33 Id. 9
760 m/s. More significantly, the figure shows, once again, that the most influential factor affecting deterministic ground motion estimates is the single station sigma assumption and the site term.34 (emphasis added)
The 30 response analysis cannot, however, address issues associated with the site-speci{ic term. IPRP previously expressed its concern regarding the adequacy of using only two.earthquakes in. estimating the site-specific term and made recommendations to gain confidence in the PG&E site-specific approach, including analyzing broad band ground motion data and ground motions from small earthquakes. to. better quantify. the site-specific term. PG&E has not addressed these recommendations.35 (emphasis added)

The "site term" based on two recorded earthquakes may represent other factors, rather than site conditions. IPRP is not convinced that this factor is adequately constrained for use in ground motion calculations. 36 (emphasis added)
The IPRP, impeded from performing its duties by PG&E's extended embargo from mid-2013 until the AB 1632 report was "finalized" in Sept ember 2014, was also critical of certain aspects of PG&E's seismic source characterization when it eventually gained access to the document. IPRP Report No. 8 is particularly pointed in its assessment of PG&E's analysis of onshore fau lts:
The IPRP is not convinced that the interpretations of the down-dip extensions oftaults are well constrained, even in the case of well-documented surface faults. Similarly, faults interpreted from the seismic sections, but not corroborated by surface mapping, (e.g. faults interpreted between the San Miguelita and Edna faults) are possible, but are by no means unique interpretations of the data. Overall, the IPRP is not convinced that projections o(faults beyond the very shallow subsurface represented unique interpretations of the data. 3 7 (emphasis added)) .

Projections o(faults to depth in 'basement' rocks of the Franciscan complex appear to be even more problematic. As discussed at the IPRP meeting on November 17, 2014, the Franciscan complex is known to be a mixture of different rock types pervasively 34 Id.
35 Id., p. 15. 36 Id. 37 IPRP Report No. 8, p. 5. 10
sheared at a variety of scales and is not expected to produce reflectors that are extensive over broad areas. The majority of seismic sections, (e.g. AWD line 150 as presented on Chapter 7, Figure 5-25) show prominent, continuous reflectors at relatively great depths in material that is assumed to be bedrock of the Franciscan complex. 38 (emphasis added)
Most deep reflectors shown on Figure 5-25, and in many other sections are arranged in groups of concave-upward, gently curved reflectors. These reflectors are interpreted in the CCCSIP report as representing geological structure. The IPRP, however, regards this pattern of concave-upward sets of reflectors as difficult to explain geologically, but not difficult to envision as artifacts from the data processing. If the continuous reflectors in Franciscan complex bedrock are artifacts of data processing, rather than representing geologic structure, then the seismic reflection surveys provide no constraint on the. down-dip geometry oftaults in the. Franciscan Complex.39 (emphasis added)

The Los Osos fault, in particular, is entirely within Franciscan Complex rocks from very shallow depths. If the reflection surveys do not show real geologic structure along the down-dip extension of this fault, then dip of the fault remains essentially unconstrained. 40 (emphasis added)

Since the Franciscan complex is known to be a mixture of different rock types pervasively sheared at a variety of scales, continuous, gently dipping layers are not expected. The overall arrangement of the. gently dipping 'reflectors' also raises questions that are not addressed in the report. In several sections, the arrangement of reflectors. does not resemble a cross-section oftolded or faulted rock. The pattern of concave-upward sets of reflectors seen in many sections does not have an obvious geological explanation, leading the IPRP to question whether they represent real geologic structure.41 (emphasis added)

Even if all reflectors shown in the seismic sections are images of geologic features, the interpretations of various faults are inconsistent and not unique: 1) In many cases, faults are interpreted based on a series of truncated reflectors, but are shown to pass through other reflectors that are not truncated; 2) In some seismic sections, it. appears that additional faults are permitted by the data. It is not clear how the stated interpretation methodology allowed the interpretation team to draw some faults and not others; and 3) Alternate interpretations of the dip of most faults are possible. 42 (emphasis added) 38 Id., p. 6.
39 Id. 40 Id. 41 Id., p . 7. 42 Id., pp. 7 - 8. 11
This concern applies to the dip of the Los Osos fault. Alternate dips, including relatively low-angle dips, of the Los Osos fault appear to be possible through sections 138-149 and 150 as shown on Figures 5-24 and 5-25 of the CCCSIP report. The reduction in uncertainty in seismic hazard depicted on the 'tornado diagram' for dip of the Los Osos fault appears to be based on the CCCSIP report conclusion that the new data precludes low-angle dips. The IPRP does not concur that low-angle dips are precluded by this new data and therefore does not believe that these studies have resulted in reduced 43 uncertainty in seismic hazard related to this parameter. (emphasis added).

Although surface faults recognized to date appear to be consistent with strike-slip faulting on the Shoreline fault, rather than thrusting on the SLRF, the possibility of thrust faults in the subsurface is not ruled out by on-land seismic survey data. The interpretation of the ONSIP data is far from unique and allows one to interpret a low angle reverse fault at the proposed location, contrary to what is stated in the CCCS/P report (p.70 Figure 6-54}. The CCCSIP interpretation criteria are not clearly defined and do not appear consistent in terms of selections made when seismic reflections are 44 truncated. (emphasis added)
IPRP Report No. 8 emphasizes the curtailed nature of its after-the-fact review, 45 and points out that proper evaluation of PG&E's seismic data acquisition and processing would requ ire the retention of outside consulting services - an authority expressly granted to the IPRP 46 47 by D.10-08-003 and D.12-09-008, and first promised at the IPRP's initial meeting on August 48 31, 2010, . but still unfulfilled as of the date of this Protest . . Unsurprisingly, it was the very fear of this pred ictable IPRP focus on data. acquisition and. processing that dominated. PG&E management's. 2013 internal "risk" evaluation of a. scenario labeled "IPRP Review": 43 Id., p. 8. 44 Id., p. 10. 45
. "IPRP review of the tectonic model is bosed on the CCCSIP report and presentotion. The IPRP has not had time, to review the seismic data processing in detail." IPRP Report No. 8, p. 7.
46
. D.10-08-003, p. 11.
47 D.12-09-008, p. 23. 48 IPRP Report No. 1, p. 5. 12
IPRP. recommends additional processing of data or interpretations aher their review of project results. The project results and conclusions are to be provided to the Independent Peer Review Panel {IPRP) as a condition of authorized CPUC funding for this project. They could recommend additional processing methods be applied or other interpretation techniques be utilized. The IPRP make-up does not have members who are experienced in processing and interpretation, but they could seek an independent 49 review by others. (emphasis added) IPRP Report No. 9 also describes more recent obstruction to its review of PG&E' s ground motion assumptions: Following the public meeting.on January 8, 2015, the IPRP had a number of additional questions regarding the velocity model described in Chapter 10 and requested an additional meeting with PG&E. PG&E declined to meet again with IPRP. As a result, this report only covers aspects of those models described in the CCCSIP report and the public meeting.50 (emphasis added) PG&E's successful strategy to circumvent meaningful IPRP review, originally formulated in 2013 and implemented as a reaction to the devastating IPRP Report No. 6, culminated with submittal of a deeply flawed '1inal" AB 1632 Report to the NRC in 2014. As of the date of this Protest, A4NR has had insufficient time to determine the degree to which adulterated assumptions from the inadequately reviewed AB 1632 Report have driven the conclusions of the LTSP's recent SSHAC Report. The cynical fashion in which PG&E's recent publicity offensive has invoked the hamstrung IPRP review to promote the rosy conclusions of the SSHAC Report leaves little room for doubt: 49 A4NR Opening Brief, A.14-02-008, p. 4, quoting a March 28, 2013 submittal to PG&E's Executive Project Committee by Ed Halpin, Jeff Summy, and Richard Klimczak. so IPRP Report No. 9, p. 2. 13
Independent experts also included an evaluation of the advanced seismic studies recently performed near Diablo Canyon, as well as feedback on the research provided from a 51 state-appointed independent peer review panel. (emphasis added)

Their work also utilized insight gained from the advanced seismic studies recently completed near Diablo Canyon. In addition, input on the advanced seismic studies provided by the California Public Utilities Commission's Independent Peer Review 52 Panel was considered in the seismic hazard re-evaluation process. (emphasis added)
* [This] work also included an evaluation of the advanced seismic studies recently performed near Diablo Canyon, as well as feedback on the research provided from a state-appointed independent peer review panel.53 (emphasis added)
VI. DR. BLAKESLEE SPOTLIGHTS PG&E's DECEPTIVE PATTERN. Leave it to the author of AB 1632, Dr. Sam Blakeslee, the former Exxon geophysicist who served as Republican Minority Leader of the California State Assembly, to assess the degree to which the $64.25. million ratepayer-funded.seismic studies have. been subverted . . As Dr.. Blakeslee. observed. in December 3, 2014. testimony to the U.S. Senate. Environment and. Public Works Committee, over several. decades PG&E has discovered more faults in close proximity to the plant, attributed. greater capability to the. faults which it has acknowledged, yet consistently proclaimed the seismic risk at the plant to be diminishing: . 'The potential earthquakes affecting the plant have increased with each major study. But what's equally striking is that the shaking 51 "Confirming Diab/a Canyon Plant's Safety," Ed Halpin, Lompoc Record, March 14, 2015. 52 "Seismic and tsunami safety a priority for Diablo Canyon, " Ed Halpin, San Luis Obispo Tribune, March 19, 2015. 53 "Op/ed: PG&E exec answers critics, says Diablo Canyon is safe, secure," Ed. Halpin, Pacific. Coast Business Times, March 20, 2015. 14
predicted by PG&E for these increasing threats. has systematically decreased as PG&E adopted less and less conservative analytical methodologies... " 54 Dr. Blakeslee was especially critical of PG&E' s debased "final" AB 1632 Report:
.... in a seeming contradiction,. rather than finding that larger or closer faults produce greater shaking and therefore a greater threat, PG&E argues in the Report that ground motion will be lower than the levels previously estimated. In other words, these newly discovered and re-interpreted faults are capable of producing shaking that exceeds the shaking from the Hosgri, yet that shaking threat would be much reduced from prior estimates.
Though discussed only in passing in the Report, the reason for this seeming contradiction is quite important when assessing whether or not the plant is safe or whether it is operating within its license conditions. The reason the earthquake threat purportedly went down when new faults were discovered is because the utility adopted significant changes to the methodology utilized for converting earthquakes (which occur at the fault) into ground motion (which occurs at the facility). This new methodology, which is less-conservative than the prior methodology, essentially "de-amplifies" the shaking estimated from any given earthquake relative to the prior methodology used during the licensing process. 55 PG&E's "final" AB 1632 Report artfully avoids an apples-to-apples comparison which would isolate the influence of its continuously evolving ground motion prediction methodology. The. charts. on pages 13 - 15 of the Technical Summary, attached to this Protest as Appendix A, purport to contrast the spectra derived from the AB 1632 studies against the 1977 Hosgri evaluat ion and the 1991 LTSP analysis. Neglecting to. reveal t he radically different methods for pred icting ground motions between cases has the same power of deception as assembling a financial spreadsheet mixing diff erent vintages of dolla rs without disclosure. . To the extent 54 Written Statement by Sam Blakeslee, Ph.D, t o t he Senate Comm ittee on Environment and Public Works, December 3, 2014, p. 3. Dr. Blakeslee' s complete st atement is accessible at http://www.epw.senate.gov /public/index.cfm ?Fu seAction =Files.View&Fi IeStore id=42d07 682-cad9-49f4-b bfl-fc9757f624c9 SS Id., p . 5. 15
that PG&E intended anyone to rely upon the misrepresentations-by-omission contained in these charts, and such reliance were to occur, the common law uses a certain f-word to describe such conduct. VII. PG&E's POST-CCCSIP CONTEMPTUOUS DISCLOSURE. Having successfu lly circumvented the IPRP before submitting its 'Jina/" report to the NRC, and choosing to absorb the criticism of IPRP Report No. 8 without response, the PG&E Geosciences Department cou ld not resist engaging in its own form of end-zone dance at the January 8, 2015 meeting of the IPRP. With peculiar aplomb, Dr. Norman Abrahamson blithely distributed a new hazard sensitivit y chart, attached to this Protest as Appendix B, and acknowledged that the six highest ranked uncertainties (each relating to earthquake-induced ground motions at the plant) had never before been presented to the IPRP. Despite admitting that PG&E's void of site-specific ground motion data dominates Diablo Canyon's probabilistic seismic hazard, Dr. Abrahamson nonchalantly suggested this deficiency be addressed in PG&E's 2025 update. There was no mention of the staggering difference in magnitude between the six newly identified uncertainties and the ones which had been selected for the AB 1632 studies. 56 His unmistakable message: having feasted on a $64.25 million authorization for ratepayer-funded studies, we never addressed the most significant issues or even told you what they were. But now we've run out the clock. Too bad, chumps. 56 Dr.. Abrahamson's discussion of the new hazard sensitivity chart runs from 1:51:27 to 2:03:25. in the video of the January 8, 2015 IPRP meeting, accessible at http:Uyoutu.be/hXu vnSgxMU 16
VIII.. TO. LIVE OUTSIDE THE LAW YOU MUST BE HONEST.. The light-handed oversight previously afforded PG&E in the conduct of its AB 1632 studies appears to be a legacy of the Commission's discredited, pre-San Bruno voluntary compliance era. As Executive Director Paul Clanon memorably testified to a California Senate committee, "That can be characterized as 'self-reporting,' but a better way to look at it is creating a safety culture at the utility. "57 He later explained that, in lieu of fines, "a better way to ensure safety is to make sure that a utility sees violations on its own has every incentive to report them. 1158 As Mr. Clanon told a post-explosion community meeting in San Bruno, fines might "discourage the utilities to come forward when they see a problem. A utility doesn't want their pipelines to be unsafe. "59 A4NR does not contend that PG&E wants DCNPP to be seismically unsafe. Rather, the accumulated record of PG&E's performa nce of its AB 1632 seismic studies documents a furtive, thumb-on-the-scale approach designed primarily to quell public apprehension and forestall pressure to close the plant. PG&E has received specia l dispensation from the NRC since October 12, 2012 to defer application of the Double Design Earthquake ("DDE") standard to the Shoreline Fault until submittal of the DCNPP SSHAC analysis -- despite the NRC's acknowledgment that "using the DOE as the basis of comparison will most likely result in the Shoreline fault and the Hosgri earthquake being reported as having greater ground motion" 57 "PG&E Hammered Over Safety Issues," San Mateo Times, October 19, 2010. 58 "State's gas pipeline inspections found to lag," San Francisco Chronicle, November 14, 2010. 59 "San Bruno blast victims skeptical of PUC oversight," San Francisco Chronicle, December 8, 2010. 17
than the plant's Safe Shutdown Earthquake. 60 This. remarkable prediction was. repeated by Dr. Cliff Munson, an NRC seismologist, in. testimony to. a June. 19, 2013 California Energy Commission workshop. 61 The. indifference with which California state agencies have,. at least publicly, accepted this revelation has been alarming but the financial bottom line. is undeniable: significant seismic retrofit requirements seem likely to be required. 62 A4NR does not expect the CPUC to involve itself in questions of the seismic licensing basis of DCNPP or the prudence of the manner in which the NRC has addressed the seismic licensing basis issue. 63 Instead, A4NR expects the Commission to be diligent in its application of traditional ratemaking authority to protect California's economic interest and electricity reliability interest in accurately understanding the seismic challenges facing the plant. The Commission would be derelict in meeting this responsibility by relying exclusively on PG&E's good faith or commitment to scientific objectivity. 60 Letter to Edward D. Halpin from Joseph M. Sebrosky, NRC Senior Project Manager for Plant Licensing Branch IV, Division of Operating Reactor Licensing, Office of Nuclear. Reactor Regulation, October. 12, 2012, accessible. at http ://pbad u pws.nrc.govI docs/M L1207 /M Ll 207 30106.pdf 61 Lead. Commissioner Workshop on California Nuclear. Power. Plant Issues,. Docket No.13-IEP-lJ, June 19, 2013, Transcript, p. 89, accessible at http://www.energy.ca.gov/ 2013 energypolicy/documents/2013 19 workshop/2013-06-19 nuclear workshop transcript.pdf 62 The severity of any such requirement is suggested by PG&E' s 2012 submittal to the NRC of a 331-page list of DCNPP deviations from the "new plant" criteria Dr. Munson testified will be applied: "The thing I want to emphasize is that the hazard evaluations are based on current practices for new reactors." Id., p. 81. PG&E's 331-page list of deviations is accessible at http://pbadupws.nrc.gov/docs/ML1134/ML11342A238.pdf 63 The Union. of.Concerned Scientists reported in 2013 th at, of th e.100 reactors currently operating in t he U.S., th e two at Diablo Canyon top the NRC's list as being most likely to experience an earthquake larger than th ey are designed to withstand, using NRC data to calculate the probability of such an event as more than 10 t imes greater than the nuclear fleet average. "Seismic Shift: Diablo Canyon Literally and Figuratively on Shaky Ground," Union of Concerned Scientists, November 2013, p. 7, accessible at http://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/legacy/assets/documents/nuclear power/diablo-canyon-earthquake-risk.pdf 18
PG&E is the only NRC power plant licensee in the history of. the commercial. nuclear power industry to face. criminal indictment for safety- related violations. by the U.S. Department of.Justice. While the 27 saf et y-related felony counts in PG&E' s. federal grand jury indictment are focused on the company's gas division, it strains credulity.to believe that DCNPP has been somehow immunized from the corporate cultu re rot that recently prompted Commission President Michael Picker to acknowledge during a California Senate oversight hearing that, "I think there's a very clear case that in some places, the utility did divert dollars that we approved 64 for safety purposes for executive compensation. " And the obstruction of justice felony count which leads PG&E's federal indictment emphatically addresses management as a whole:
"On or about September 10, 2010, and continuing through on or about September 30, 2011, in the Northern District of California, the defendant, PACIFIC GAS AND ELECTRIC COMPANY, did corruptly influence, obstruct, and impede, and did endeavor to influence, obstruct, and impede the due and proper administration of the law under which a pending proceeding was being had before a department and agency of the United States ... " 65 (emphasis added)
Although perhaps not a. matter of familiarity to utility regulators, the term "RAP sheet" is derived from the Federal Bureau of Investigation's Record of Arrests and Prosecutions.. Actual conviction. is not a prerequisite. A4NR is unaware. of any other California electric utility with a. RAP sheet. Whi le PG&E is.certainly entitled to. its day(s) in court to. defend itself from the federal charges, its.status. as a criminal defendant and the nature of its alleged crimes. should 64 President Picker's statement is at 36:56 of the video of the March 25, 2015 oversight hearing conducted by the California Senate Committee on Energy, Utilities and Communications, accessible at http://calchannel.granicus.com/MediaPlayer.php?view id=7&clip id=2682 65 United States o{ America. v .. Pacific Gas and Electric Company, United States District Court for. the Northern District of California, Case 3:14-cr-00175-THE, Superseding Indictment, July 29, 2014, p. 18. 19
discourage the Commission from extending any presumption of veracity to the. representations in PG&E's AB 1632 Report without corroboration by the. most rigorous scrutiny. IX. WHY A4NR PROTESTS. Building upon key decisions made and implemented by PG&E in 2013, the utility intensified its efforts in 2014 to subvert what was originally conceived by the Commission as a robust re-evaluation of DCNPP's seismic setting. If PG&E is allowed to recover the costs of such subterfuge, the effect on A4NR and all PG&E customers will be electricity rates rendered both unreasonable and unjust by Commission reward of unmistakable perfidy. The consequences for A4NR members (and others) living in communities near the plant stemming from unknowing acceptance of PG&E's defective seismic analysis could, in some circumstances, be much worse than that - with incalculable financial impact on California. A4NR requests evidentiary hearings and will conduct discovery and sponsor testimony elaborating on the facts conta ined in this Protest, as well as the extent to which PG&E's LTSP and SSHAC expend itures in 2014 were similarly tainted. Assuming timely responsiveness by PG&E to legitimate discovery requests, A4NR has no objection to the schedule proposed in PG&E's application. The undersigned will be the A4NR's principal contact in this proceeding, but A4NR also asks that the following two individuals be placed in the "information only" category of the Service List: Rochelle Becker David Weisman rochelle@a4nr.org david@a4nr.org 20
Respectfully submitted, By: /sf John L. Geesman JOHN. L. GEESMAN DICKSON GEESMAN LLP Date: April 3, 2015 Attorney for ALLIANCE FOR NUCLEAR RESPONSIBILITY 21
APPENDIX A PG&E SPECTRA CHARTS FROM CCCSIP REPORT A-1
Page 13of15 CCCSIP Report Technical Summary 1977 HE spectrum 1991 LTSP/SSER34 spectrum PB - Linked Hosgri and San Simeon (M 7.3) PB - Los Osos (M 6.7) PB - San Luis Bay (M 6.4) PB- Shoreline (M 6.7) 1977 HE spectrum extended to 0.5 Hz o --~~~+---""-!-~~~~,....---+~__._~~~-"'-! 0.1 1 10 100 ~ Frequency (Hz) .~ _ lhe 84th Pwcenme DefMmlrjsUc Ground llolons 8 few Four Fault Scenarios Compared to the 19T7
~ Hosgrl Earthquake (tE} and the 1991 LTSPISSER
~ :W Spectra for the OCPP Po- Block g Ji CCCSIP REPORT
~ . . PaciicG*umdBlcnCon.-y Figure 1*1 i,__~~~~~~~~~~~~----~ **~ * ~~~~~~~-'-~~~~~
Page 14of 15 CCCSIP Report Technical Summary 1977 HE spectrum 1991 LTSP/SS ER34 spectrum TB - Linked Hosgri and San Simeon (M 7 .3) TB - Los Osos (M 6.7) TB - San Luis Bay (M 6.4) TB - Shoreline (M 6.7) 1977 HE spectrum extended to 0 .5 Hz ll-0-+-~~-----~-+---+~~~--+-+-......-+-~..._~+--'--+-4 0.1 10 100 Frequency (Hz) The 14th ~nlle Detennlnlsdc Ground lloltons for FOUi" Fault Scenarios C0111pared to the 1977 HcJs91 E.-thquale (HE) and the 1991 LTSPISSER 34 Spectra for the DCPP Turtllne Buldlng CCCSIP REPORT ! ~PxilcGas.cte.dricecn.-y
'---~~~~~~~~~~~~~-=~~~~~~~~-'-~~~~~
Figure 1*2
Page 15of15 CCCSIP Report Technical Summary 19n HE spectrum 1991 LTSP/SSEA34 spectrum PB - Shoreline Linked to Hosgri & San Simeon (M 7.3) TB - Shoreline Linked to Hosgri & San Simeon (M 7.3) 19n HE spectrum extended to 0.5 Hz
~-____,.,. _. .t-ti- .,. . .-*tt-i--.--- r .,. . . . .,*-. .~ =
2
.S _ ,..,...,..,.
I - --h-t
.;...,...,.-,t 111 I I I 2 +--+-+-;....-:. ~~l~ ll +---~~ =-=~,.,..~ ~ n=\.t--~l__,.l_.;.-;- ' ...,.+r+1 Ill I .r ~ I ! i I .II I I - - ~Li I ! , II I !
111 I I' It I
-- f-j-+fLU -~
0----------------+----------__,
,_ ,_ ,_ I I I I I I 4 ~
0.1 1 10 100 Frequency (Hz)
APPENDIX B PG & E LATE-DISTRIBUTED HAZARD CHART B-1
l I I I Hazard Sensitivity Non-Ergodic Path ~, , 5 Hz, PSA = 2g Non-Ergodic Source I . Median from GMPE I -. I Site Amplification ... SigmaSS Model Time Dependent hazard I Hosgri Slip Rate I 1..!.
, .... I, _ - ~
I o SSC 2011 I I Hosgri Dip I ............ 1... .1... -
SSC 2014 Shoreline Slip Rate I- L- ~
I _. GMC 2014
+ Non-Ergodic GMC Hosgri - San Simeon Step Over I I I
11 Los Osos Dip ~ - I 11 I "" '-' Los Osos Slip Rate L-Shoreline and Hosgri Linking I L-I Los Osos Sense of Slip
. I ,'-'-- ........ I I
Shoreline Segmentation Shoreline Southern End I
~
I I . ' I ' . I 0.01 0.1 1 10 Hazard Ratio (not GM ratio)
John Stamatakos From:John Stamatakos Sent: 12 May 201520:14:25 +0000 To:Miriarn R. Juckett
Subject:
FW: Written concerns - April 28th, 2015 webcast meeting with PG&E Attachments:IPRP Report No 6- 1.pdf, IPRP Report No 8.pdf, IPRP Report No 9- 1.pdf, 040315 A4NR Protest-023.pdf, 051 2 15 Rochelle Becker-NRC staff.pdf Attachments are already publicly available FYI as ML15134A258. From: Rochelle Becker [10] Sent: Tuesday, May 12, 2015 4:09 PM To: njd2@nrc.gov Cc: Markley, Michael; Richard.Plasse@nrc.gov; Michael. Wentzel@nrc.gov; Wayne.Walker@nrc.gov; Ryan.Alexander@nrc.gov; Thomas Hipschman; Bill Maier; Yong.Li@nrc.gov; Nilesh.Chokshi@nrc.gov; Jim.Xu@nrc.gov; Kamal. Manoly@nrc.gov; P.Y.Chen@nrc.gov; John.Burke@nrc.gov; Clifford.Munson@nrc.gov; Gerry Stirewalt;.Timothy.Lupold@nrc.gov; John Stamatakos;. Siva .Lingam@nrc.gov; Chris.Miller@nrc.gov; Bill.Dean@nrc.gov; Brian.Holian@nrc.gov; Marc.Dapas@nrc.gov; Michael.Johnson@nrc.gov; jon.ake@nrc.gov
Subject:
Written concerns - April 28th, 2015 webcast meeting with PG&E
Dear Mr DiFrancesco,
Please see attached letter. There are four referenced attachments as pdf files as well. Thank you Rochelle Rochelle Becker, Executive Director Alliance for Nuclear Responsibility PO 1328 San Luis Obispo, CA 93406 www.a4nr.org
Jackson, Diane From:Jackson, Diane Sent:28 May 2015 09:43:04 -0400 To:Munson, Clifford Cc:Graizer, Vladimir;John Stamatakos;Ake, Jon ;Plaza-Toledo, Meralis ;Giacinto, Joseph;Stova11, Scott;Brittain Hill;Li, Yong
Subject:
FYI: Reminder senl to Diablo for Information Request Nick sent a reminder. Diane From: Difrancesco, Nicholas Sent: Thursday, May 28, 2015 9:16 AM To: Philippe Soenen (Pns3@pge.com); Jahangir, Nozar Cc: Michael Richardson (mjrm@pge.com); Strickland, Jearl; Shams, Mohamed; Jackson, Diane; Vega, Frankie
Subject:
Reminder on Diablo Information Request Philippe, et, al Just a reminder that the staff is interested in the following references to support NRG review:
1) Benchmark files. for. SWUS-DCPP median. ground motion. models.

2) ESTA 27 and 28 recordings of Parkfield and San Simeon earthquakes

a. Time histories

b. Response. spectra

c. Response spectra adjusted for Vs30

3) Engineering, reports describing development of velocity profiles for stations ESTA 27 and 28.

4) Paper describing WAACY Magnitude PDF by Wooddell and others.
Please let me know when the references will be available. Thanks,. Nick Senior Project Manager - Seismic Reevaluation Activities U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation Japan Lesson Learned Project Division nicholas.difrancesco@nrc.gov I Tel: (301) 415-1115
John Stamatakos From:John Stamatakos Sent:29 Apr 2015 15:52:32 +0000 To:Giacinto, Joseph (Joseph.Giacinto@nrc.gov);Plaza-Toledo, Meralis (Meralis.Plaza-Toledo @nrc.gov) Cc:Munson, Clifford (Clifford.Munson@nrc.gov);Ake, Jon (Jon.Ake@ nrc.gov);Jackson, Diane (Diane.Jackson@nrc.gov);Stirewalt, Gerry (Gerry.Stirewalt@nrc.gov);Seber, Dogan (Dogan.Seber@nrc.gov);Miriam R. Juckett;Graizer, Vladimir (Vladimi.r.Graizer@nrc.gov);Hill, Brittain (Brittain.Hill@nrc.gov)
Subject:
Hosgri Slip Rates Joe and Meralis, One of the more interesting, and more hazard sensitive, aspects of the Diablo canyon SSC is the Hosgri slip rate CDF. I suggest we focus our initial reviews on that aspect of the SSC. Dogan made a critical observation yesterday in our discussions, namely how can the lower tail of the CDF be justified. In thinking through the question last night I have a few suggestions. 1.. We should look at the seismic imaging data from the CCCSIP that PG&E uses to constrain the slip (interpretations of offset paleo-channels). There are 4 piercing points that PG&E uses to develop the composite slip rate CDF for the Hosgri fault. The slip rate data used for these 4 points is summarized in:
a. San Simeon/Oso Terrace - Figure 8-16

b. Point Estero Cross-Hosgri Slope - Figure 8-18

c. Estero Bay Submarine Channel - Figure 8.28

d. Point Sal Channel F - Figure 8.32 For each of these we should understand how the cumulative slip was determined (and uncertainty) and how the offset age was determined (and uncertainty).

1. Age: For San Simeon, the age is based on the interpretation that the unconformity overlying the buried geomorphic featured tied to the Younger Dryas, so t his one is rather straightforward. But the other three, especially Estero Bay and Point Sal, ages are based on interpret ations of age ranges from the seal level curves. So we will need to understand how the Tl team interpreted the offset parkers in terms of these curves and whether other interpretations outside the ones provided are permissible.

2. Slip: All the slip estimates are based on interpretations of the 20 and 30 seismic images and detailed sea floor bathymetry. I am going to ask my San Antonio team to look over these images from Chapter 8 of the SSC report to help us understand how the images were interpreted and to assess the overall quality of the interpretations. I am also interested in understanding whether the full range of uncertainty is included in the Tl team's interpret ations.
We could also ask Cliff and Jon to some sensitivity studies to constrain the limits of what we are looking for. I th ink it might be helpful here to know how far the current slip rate estimates would have to be different from those used in the study to move the hazard needle. For example, what if the Tl team were off by a single Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage (M IS)? For most of these my very preliminary
guesstimate is that would correspond to about a 25% increase in the slip rates. Would such an increase in rates be significant? I am going to have a call with my San Antonio team this afternoon, and would be happy to have you both on the call. Right now the call is set for 3:00 t his afternoon, but it can adjusted to meet your schedules.
Thanks, John Dr. John Stamatakos Director of Technical Programs Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses (CNWRA)
Southwest Research Institute 1801 Rockville Pike, Rockville, MD 20852 301-881-0290 jstamatakos@swri.org
John Stamatakos From:John Stamatakos. Sent: I 0 Apr 20 15 20:01 :06 +0000 To:Grai zer, Vladimir (Yladimir.Graizer@nrc.gov);Stirewalt, Ge1Ty (Gerry.Stirewalt@nrc.gov);Plaza-Toledo, Meralis (Meralis. Plaza-Toledo@nrc.gov);Miriam R. Juckett Cc:Ake, Jon (Jon.Ake@nrc.gov);Hill, Brittain (Brittain.Hill@nrc.gov);Munson, Clifford (Clifford.Munson @nrc.gov); 'lisa.walsch @nrc.gov';Li, Yong (Yong.Li@nrc.gov)
Subject:
Monday Diablo Meeting
Vlad, For Monday, I can walk everyone through the draft summary report w e have on the seismic imagining data and searchable image table.
John Dr. John Stamatakos Director of Technical Programs Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses (CNWRA) Southwest Research Institute 1801 Rockville Pike, Rockville, MD 20852 301-881-0290 jstamatakos@swri.org
Sarah Wigginton From:Sarah Wigginton Sent:6 Apr 2015 14:30:46 -0500 To:John Stamatakos Cc:Ronald McGinnis
Subject:
Password for Secured PDF Files
John, I' m working on finishing up the Diablo Canyon Document Catalog and I've noticed that some of PDF fi les are "secured" so I am unable to copy any of the material (titles, sources, etc.). Working w ith an un-secured version would greatly speed up the process of cataloging the figures!
Would it be possible to get my hands on a password for. the " DCPP SSC Report Rev A"?
Best, Sarah Sarah Wigginton Department of Earth, Material, and Planetary Sciences Geosciences and Engineeri ng Division Southwest Research Institute 6220 Culebra Road, San Antonio, TX 78238, USA
John Stamatakos From:John Stamatakos Sent:22 Apr 2015 02: 17:55 +0000 To:'Jackson, Diane'
Subject:
RE: DCPP, Palo Verde, and Columbia Audit Information: SSHAC Documentation from PPRP-IT Team Ok thanks I am working on some Diablo inputs for Cliff. John From:. Jackson, Diane [11] Sent: Tuesday, April 21, 2015 7:27 PM To: John Stamatakos; Spence, Jane
Subject:
Re: DCPP, Palo Verde, and Columbia Audit Information: SSHAC Documentation from PPRP-IT Team Jane, any chance u can get these on a CD? John, no Columbia tomorrow. Diane Sent from an NRC blackberry Diane Jackson l{b){6) From : John Stamatakos [12] Sent: Tuesday, April 21, 2015 04:25 PM To: Munson, Clifford; Difrancesco, Nicholas; Ake, Jon Cc: Jackson, Diane; Shams, Mohamed; Vega, Frankie; Graizer, Vladimir; Hill, Brittain; Seber, Dogan; Vega, Frankie; Stirewalt, Gerry
Subject:
RE: DCPP, Palo Verde, and Columbia Audit Information: SSHAC Documentation from PPRP-IT Team I can't get to the NRC drive so I'll get copies I am at NRC. Thanks John From: Munson, Clifford [13] Sent: Tuesday, April 21, 2015 4: 14 PM To: Difrancesco, Nicholas; Ake, Jon Cc: Jackson, Diane; Shams,. Mohamed; Vega, Frankie; Graizer, Vladimir; John Stamatakos;. Brittain Hill; Seber, Dogan; Vega, Frankie; Gerry Stirewalt
Subject:
RE: DCPP, Palo Verde, and Columbia Audit Information: SSHAC Documentation from PPRP-IT Team Importance: High
Nick, We took a quick look at the contents of the information for DCPP and PVNGS. The DCPP folder contains the PPRP-TI correspondence and interactions on the source model and ground motion model SSHACs. However, the PVNGS only has the ground motion model SSHAC PPRP-TI team material and not for the Source model. Please let us know when we can get the source model PPRP-TI team documentation.

Thanks, Cliff From: DiFrancesco, Nicholas Sent: Tuesday, April 21, 2015 1:25 PM To: Munson,. Clifford; Ake, Jon Cc: Jackson, Diane; Shams, Mohamed; Vega, Frankie; Graizer, Vladimir; John Stamatakos
<jstam@swri.org> (jstam@swri.org); Hill, Brittain; Seber, Dogan; Vega, Frankie; Stirewalt, Gerry
Subject:
DCPP, Palo Verde, and Columbia Audit Information: SSHAC Documentation from PPRP-IT Team
Folks, Please control distribution to the designated review team member for the following references.
Following your audit review, please advise if information reviewed should be docketed to support development of the hazard staff assessment or RAls. DC Audit Information S:\Diablo Canyon R2.1 Seismic lnformation\SSHAC Documentation of PPRP-TI Team Palo Verde Audit Information S:\Palo Verde R2.1 Seismic lnformation\SSHAC Documentation of PPRP-TI Team Columbia Information is on ePortal (PM action to work through access controls). Also, licensee plans to work with PNNL to post information on public website.
Thanks, Nick From: Soenen, Philippe R [14]
Sent: Tuesday, April 21, 2015 10:49 AM. To: DiFrancesco, Nicholas Cc: Jahangir, Nozar
Subject:
DCPP information on Certrec
Nick, We have uploaded the PPRP information onto Certrec IMS and granted access to Vladimir Grazier, John Stamatakos, and yourself. Here is how you get to the PPRP information in Certrec:
Login to ims.certrec.com

Click on "Inspections"

Set status to " In Progress" and Plant to "Diablo Canyon"

Click "Search" button.

Click link to "Self-Assessment I Audit- Review of PPRP Comments and TIT Resolution"

Click on t he "NRC Requests" tab

Click on what you would like to see.
Please let me know if you have any questions.
Regards, Philippe Soenen Regulatory Services Office - 805.545.6984 Cet1 l(bl(5l I PG&E is committed to protecting our customers' privacy.
To learn more, please visit http://www.pge.com/about/company/privacy/customer/
Alan Morris From:Alan Morris Sent:l5 May 2015 19:06:33 +0000 To:John Stamatakos Cc:David Ferri lJ
Subject:
RE: Diablo Canyon Not the version I am looking at - did you place it somewhere other t han on Regios? Alan Alan Morris Department of Earth, Material,. and Planetary Sciences Geoscienccs and. Engineering Division Southwest Research Institute 6220 Culebra Road, San Antonio. TX 78238. USA Te l: 2 I 0.522.6743 Fax: 210.522.5155 Web page: hnp://www.swri.org/4org/d20/geosci/structu r.htm http://3dstress.swri.org/ From: John Stamatakos Sent: Friday, May 15, 2015 2:03 PM To: Alan Morris Cc: David Ferrill
Subject:
RE: Diablo Canyon I did unlock that one I think? I do want to chat about this work next week when I am back in the office. John From: Alan Morris Sent: Friday, May 15, 2015 1:50 PM To: John Stamatakos Cc: David Ferrill
Subject:
Diablo Canyon
John, Did I understand you to have said that we might be able to see unlocked versions of some of the relevant documents?
If so, then I would like to be able to see all the parts of "NTIF DCCP PSHA Review", which seems to have some very good stuff in it, and it is not easy to read and annotate as it currently stands. Thanks Alan
Alan Morris Department of Earth, Material. and Planetary Sciences. Gcoscience and Engineering Division Southwest Research Institute 6220 Culcbra Road, San Antonio, TX 78238, USA Tel : 2 10.522.6743 Fax: 2 10.522.5155 Web page: http://www.swri.org/4org/d20/geosci/structur.htm http://3dstrcs\.swri.org/
Alan Mon-is From:Alan Morris Sent:28 Apr 2015 19:49:58 +0000 To:Ronald McGinnis;David Ferrill ;Kevin Smart;Sarah Wiggi nton
Subject:
RE: Diablo Canyon After 9:30 am is good for me --Alan Alan Mon*is. Department of Earth, Material. and Planetary S cience~ Gcoscienccs and Engineering Division Southwest Research lns1i1u1e 6220 Culcbra Road. San Antonio, TX 78238, USA Tel: 2 10.522.6743 Fax: 210.522.51 55 Web page: http://www.s wri.org/4org/d20/geosci/structur.htm http://3dstress.swri.org/ From: Ronald McGinnis Sent: Tuesday, April 28, 2015 1:56 PM To: David Ferrill; Alan Morris; Kevin Smart; Sarah Wigginton
Subject:
FW: Diablo c.anyon Is there a particular time that works for you all? I am good any time. From: John Stamatakos . Sent: Tuesday, April 28, 2015 1:53 PM To: Ronald McGinnis
Subject:
RE: Diablo c.anyon I am in a Diablo meeting right now. We should have a call tomorrow. I'll have to look at my schedule but could you ask your folks so we can set up a good time? John From: Ronald McGinnis Sent:. Tuesday, April 28, 2015 1:35 PM. To: John Stamatakos
Subject:
RE: Diablo c.anyon
John, We just got back in the office from two weeks of travel. David and I are in the office this week and then gone again next week. How did the meeting with NRC go? I got your voicemail asking about the GIS file but I didn't get it until yesterday.
Do we have the go ahead for Phase 2? If so, we may want to have a phone call this week to go over the details.
Thanks, Ronny From: John Stamatakos Sent: Friday, April 10, 2015 3:04 PM To: Ronald McGinnis Cc: David Ferrill; Alan Morris l(bJ( 6l J>; Kevin Smart; Sarah Wigginton; Miriam R. Juckett
Subject:
RE: Diablo Canyon - - - - - - - - I mean Ronny ... sorry I know better From: John Stamatakos Sent: Friday, April 10, 2015 4:02 PM To: Ronald McGinnis Cc: David Ferrill; Alan Morris ._l(b-J(_6l_ _ _ _ _ __.I); Kevin Smart; Sarah Wigginton; Miriam R. Juckett
Subject:
RE: Diablo Canyon Thanks Ronnie, Outstanding job. I am very pleased w ith the progress so far. john From: Ronald McGinnis Sent: Friday, April 10, 2015 3:58 PM To: John Stamatakos Cc: David Ferrill; Alan Morris q(bJ( 6l p ; Kevin Smart; Sarah Wigginton
Subject:
RE: Diablo Canyon - - - - - - - -
John, We are not quite finished with the data quality tab in the spreadsheet so that w ill have to continue, but all the data has been reviewed and is represented by a row in the following linked spreadsheet.
Y:\Diablo Canyon\Diablo Canyon\Document Catalog COMPLETE.xlsx Also, we are working on an ArcGIS project that helps to organize the seismic data. It should be finished by COB today. That link is at Y:\Diablo Canyon\Diablo Canyon\ArcGIS GED\Diablo Canyon March 2015.mxd The review document is at T:\Diablo Canyon\Diablo Canyon\CNWRA report April 2015\DiabloCanyonPowerPlant - seismic risk data survey April 2015.docx All the rest of the files are in the Diablo Canyon folder on regios. Let us know if you have any questions.
-Ronny From: John Stamatakos Sent: Friday, April 10, 2015 2:48 PM To: Ronald McGinnis
Subject:
Diablo Canyon Can I review all the files so I can present at NRC on Monday? John Dr. John Stamatakos Director of Technical Programs Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses (CNWRA) Southwest Research Institute 1801 Rockville Pike, Rockville, MD 20852 301-881-0290 jstamatakos@swri.org
John Stamatakos From:John Stamatakos Sent:29 Apr 2015 16:03:59 +0000 To:Ronald McGinnis
Subject:
RE: Diablo Canyon Ronnie, do we have a bridge line we can use? John From: Ronald McGinnis . Sent: Wednesday,. April 29, 2015. 10:37 AM To: John Stamatakos
Subject:
RE: Diablo Canyon Sounds good. From: John Stamatakos Sent: Wednesday, April 29, 2015 9:35 AM To: Ronald McGinnis
Subject:
RE: Diablo Canyon Office ... or we may use a bridge if I want to bring in NRC. From: Ronald McGinnis Sent: Wednesday, April 29, 2015 10:33 AM To: John Stamatakos
Subject:
RE: Diablo Canyon We will call. you. Office or cell? From: John Stamatakos Sent: Wednesday, April 29, 2015 9: 16 AM To: Ronald McGinnis
Subject:
RE: Diablo Canyon OK From: Ronald McGinnis Sent: Wednesday, April 29, 2015 10:00 AM To: John Stamatakos
Subject:
RE: Diablo Canyon
John, How about 2:00 our time?
-Ronny From : Ronald McGinnis Sent: Tuesday, April 28, 2015 1:55 PM To: John Stamatakos
Subject:
RE: Diablo Canyon Should work. I will get a time and let you know. From : John Stamatakos Sent: Tuesday, April 28, 2015 1:53 PM To: Ronald McGinnis
Subject:
RE: Diablo Canyon I. am in a Diablo. meeting right now. We should have a call tomorrow. I'll have to look at my schedule but could you ask your folks so we can set up a good time? John From: Ronald McGinnis Sent: Tuesday, April 28, 2015 1:35 PM To: John Stamatakos
Subject:
RE: Diablo Canyon
John, We just got back in the office from two weeks of travel. David and I are in the office this week and then gone again next week. How did the meeting with NRC go? I got your voicemail asking about the GIS file but I didn't get it until yesterday.
Do we have the go ahead for Phase 2? If so, we may want to have a phone call this week to go over the details.
Thanks, Ronny From: John Stamatakos Sent: Friday, April 10, 2015 3:04 PM To: Ronald McGinnis Cc: David Ferrill; Alan Morris P 6
__l(_l________ b; Kevin Smart; Sarah Wigginton; Miriam R. Juckett
Subject:
RE: Diablo Canyon I mean Ronny ... sorry I know better From : John Stamatakos Sent: Friday, April 10, 2015 4:02 PM To: Ronald McGinnis
Cc: David Ferrill; Alan Morris ._l<b_l(_6 l_ _ _ _ _ __,D ; Kevin Smart; Sarah Wigginton; Miriam R. Juckett
Subject:
RE: Diablo Canyon Thanks Ronnie, Outstanding job. I am very pleased with the progress so far. john From: Ronald McGinnis Sent: Friday, April 10, 2015 3:58 PM To: John Stamatakos Cc: David Ferrill; Alan Morris Cl,..(_. b ).._ ) _ _ _ _ ___,!);Kevin Smart; Sarah Wigginton ( 6.._
Subject:
RE: Diablo canyon
John, We are not quite finished with the data quality tab in the spreadsheet so that will have to continue, but all the data has been reviewed and is represented by a row in the fol lowing linked spreadsheet.
Y:\Diablo Canyon\ Diablo Canyon\Document Catalog COMPLETE .xlsx Also, we are working on an ArcGIS project that helps to organize the seismic data. It should be finished by COB today. That link is at Y:\Diablo Canyon\Diablo canyon\ArcGIS GED\Diablo Canyon March 2015.mxd The review document is at T:\Diablo Canyon\Diablo Canyon\CNWRA report April 2015\DiabloCanyonPowerPlant - seismic risk data survey April 2015.docx All. the rest of the files are in. the Diablo Canyon folder on regios. Let us. know if you have any questions. -Ronny From: John Stamatakos Sent: Friday, April 10, 2015 2:48 PM To: Ronald McGinnis
Subject:
Diablo Canyon Can I review all the files so I can present at NRC on Monday? John Dr. John Stamatakos Director of Technical Programs Center for Nuclear Waste. Regulatory Analyses (CNWRA~ Southwest Research Institute 1801 Rockville Pike, Rockville, MD 20852
301-881-0290 jstamatakos@swri.org
John Stamatakos From:John Stamatakos Sent: 15 May 2015 19: 16: 16 +0000 To:Alan Morris
Subject:
RE: Diablo Canyon No but Ill check again. From: Alan Morris Sent: Friday, May 15, 2015 3:07 PM To: John Stamatakos Cc:. David Ferrill.
Subject:
RE: Diablo Canyon Not the version I am looking at - did you place it somewhere other than on Regios? Alan Alan Morris Department of Earth, Material, and Planetary Sciences Gcoscicnces and Engineering Di vision Southwest Research Institute 6220 Culcbra Road. San Amonio, TX 78238, USA Tel: 210.522.6743 Fax: 210.522.5155 Web page: hup://www.swri.org/4org/d20/geosci/structur.htm http://3dstress.swri.org/ From:. John Stamatakos Sent: Friday, May 15, 2015 2:03 PM To: Alan Morris Cc: David Ferrill
Subject:
RE: Diablo Canyon I did unlock that one I think? I do want to chat about this work next week when I am back in the office. John. From: Alan Morris Sent: Friday, May 15, 2015 1:50 PM To: John Stamatakos Cc: David Ferrill
Subject:
Diablo Canyon
John,
Did I understand you to have said that we might be able to see unlocked versions. of some of the. relevant documents? If so, then I would like to be able to see. all the. parts of "NTIF DCCP PSHA Review", which seems. to have some. very good stuff in it, and it is not easy to. read and annotate. as it currently stands. Thanks Alan Alan Morris Department of Earth, Material, and Planetary Sciences Geosciences and Engineering Division Southwest Research Institute 6220 Culcbra Road, San Antonio, TX 78238, USA Tel: 2 10.522.6743 Fax: 2 10.522.5 155 Web page: http://www.swri.org/4org/d20/gcosci/stmctur.htm http://3dstress.swri.org/
Slip Rate COF
. - r ~/
0.9 I
./
I F~ ~ , I 0.8 ' I
/1 J 0.7 I
I 11 v I I 5-Point Distribution Slip Rate ~ = .c 0.6 I I
.1 .I Pe rcentile (mm/yr) Weight e
Cl. 0.5
,I If I 0.034893 0.6 0.1 01
- 0.211702 1 0.244 QI II I .?. - San Simeon I Oso Terrace .!! I Weight [0.3] 0.5 1.7 0.309
3 J
;; I E 0.4 0
3 I I - -Point Estero C ross~Hosgri slope 0.788298 2.3 0.244 I Weight[0.2)
I 0.3 I J
0.965107 3.1 0.101 VJ I I I - - Estero Bay submarine channel I Weight (0.3)

Weighted Mean 1.7 0.2 -
' / 1/ , ~ - * - Point Sal Channel F Weight [0.2) v-0.1 - -Weighted Hosgri slip rate 0 ~ '( ; /
0.0 0.5 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 5.0 5.5 Slip Rate (mrnfyr) Note: The Hosgri slip rate CDF is calculated from the weighted combination of slip rate CDFs developed for each of the four Hosgri slip rate sites. Hosgri Slip Rate CDF Compilat ion and Selection of 5-Point Distribution DCPP SSC REPORT
~ Pacific Gas and Electric Company Figure 8-33
John Stamatakos From:John Stamatakos Sent:29 Apr 2015 15:59:39 +0000 To:Ronald McGinnis;Alan Morris;David Ferrill ;Kevin Smart;Sarah Wigginton Cc:Miriam R. Juckett
Subject:
RE: Diablo Canyon Attachments:Composite Hosgri SR PDF.JPG Ronnie,. For the. call this afternoon . . I want to look at the seismic imaging data. from the CCCSIP that PG&E uses. to constrain the slip. (interpretations of offset paleo-channels) for the Hosgri Fault. There are 4 piercing points that PG&E uses to develop the composite slip rate CDF for the Hosgri fault. The slip rate data used for these 4 points is summarized in the SSC report in Chapter 8:
a. San Simeon/Oso Terrace - Figure 8-16

b. Point Est ero Cross-Hosgri Slope - Figure 8-18

c. Estero Bay Submarine Channel - Figure 8.28

d. Point Sal Channel F - Figure 8.32 For each of these we should understand how the cumulative slip was determined (and uncertainty) and how the offset age was determined (and uncertainty}.

1. Age: For San Simeon, the age is based on the interpretation that the unconformity overlying the buried geomorphic featured tied to the Younger Dryas, so this one is rather straightforward. But the other three, especially Estero Bay and Point Sal, ages are based on interpretations of age ranges from the seal level curves. So we will need to understand how the Tl team interpreted the offset parkers in terms of these curves and whether other interpretations outside the ones provided are permissible.

2. Slip: All the slip estimates are based on interpretations of the 2D and 3D seismic images and detailed sea floor bathymetry. The summary figures from the CCCISP are also in Chapter 8 of the SSC Report.

Thanks, John FYI I replaced the locked DCPP SSC Report Rev A in the folder with an unlocked pdf version so search and rescue is much easier now.
From: Ronald McGinnis Sent: Wednesday, April 29, 2015 10:00 AM
Sent:26 Mar 2015 15 :35 :53 +0000 To:David Ferrill;'Alan Morris';Kevin Smart Cc:Alan Morris
Subject:
RE: Diablo Canyon data review for NRC John is going to be here Tuesday morning. The plan is for Alan, Kevin (if you are here), and me to go over the project with him that morning and figure out a schedule. I am out most of the day on Wednesday for l(b)(G) Lso Thursday may be the day we can spend the most time with John on this. Unless David and Alan can do some on Wednesday while I am out.
-Ronny From : Ronald McGinnis.
Sent: Tuesday, March 24, 2015 9:08 AM To: David Ferrill; 'Alan Morris'; Kevin Smart Cc: Alan Morris
Subject:
RE: Diablo canyon data review for NRC Just got off the phone with John. We are set for next week April 1-2 (Wednesday and Thursday). I will get the conference room next to Violet reserved and I will get John set up on Regios so he can start loading data in advance of the meeting.
-Ronny From: David Ferrill Sent: Monday, March 23, 2015 10: 12 PM To: 'Alan Morris'; Ronald McGinnis Cc: Alan Morris; Kevin Smart
Subject:
RE: Diablo canyon data review for NRC Ronny, This sounds like an interesting project! Please let John know that I have been out of cell phone range for the last few days in Big Bend and just resurfaced today, and I did get his message and was planning to call. him tomorrow morning. I will be cleansing and having a colonoscopy Monday and Tuesday of next week, so those days are out for me. I expect/hope to be in on Wednesday and Thursday April 1-2, but w ill be taking off April 3'd for vacation. So, to me the best dates next week for meeting on t his appear to by April 1-2, 2015. David From: Alan Morris (!!19il!Qj.!"!(b,.,l(..,.6l..,....,..,,,.....,,,.,.., ___ _... Sent: Monday, March 23, 2015 9:58 PM To: Ronald McGinnis Cc: David Ferrill; Alan Morris; Kevin Smart
Subject:
Re: Diablo canyon data review for NRC
Next week is open, this week is not good for me, I am only planning to be in on Wednesday Alan On Mon, Mar 23, 2015 at 10:47 AM, Ronald McGinnis <rmcginnis@swri.org> wrote:
Guys, I just got off the phone with John Stamatakos regarding a project that has been funded that he wants our help with. Diablo. Canyon has acquired a very large seismic data set (2d, 3d over the plant site, extensive shaJlow seismic, and some off shore) something in the neighborhood of $60 million worth of data. Some is newly acquired and all the new stuff has been merged with the old stuff.
There are 400 hours. dedicated to this project. There would be. two phases to this. project. Phase I would be a high level review of the data and would be due in the next 45 days. Basically organize the data to see what they even have, perfo1m a basic QA to see if the seismic is even useful, and provide a 2-3 page report outlining the data and our observations. Phase 2 would be full -scale characterization (PETREL model) pending that we can prove from Phase. I that the. data is useful. John wants to come in next week to meet with us and look at the data for a couple days. Alan and David, can you offer two consecutive days that would work so I can let John know? I am avaj)able any day and Kevin said he could be. available in the. morning. Hope the trip is going well.
Thanks, Ronny Ronald N. McGinnis
rmcginnis@swri.org Senior Research Scientist Department of Earth , Material , and Planetary Sciences Southwest Research Institute 6220 Culcbra Road San Antonio, Texas 78238-5166 Office: 210-522-5825 _6)_ _ __. Mobile:._1'6)(-
John Stamatakos From:John Stamatakos Sent: 1 Jun 2015 12:00:29 +0000 To:'Munson, Clifford'
Subject:
RE: Diablo Canyon Mtg - Topic for this week Cliff, . I don't have anything to present this week. But wasn't the meeting moved to Wednesday? John From: Munson, Clifford [15] Sent: Monday, June 1, 2015 7:47 AM To: Ake, Jon; John Stamatakos; Graizer, Vladimir; Plaza-Toledo, Meralis; Stovall, Scott Cc: Jackson, Diane
Subject:
Diablo Canyon Mtg - Topic for this week We will discuss magnitude recurrence and activity rates assuming constant seismic moment rate. as opposed. to constant seismicity. I have a presentation but it will probably not take more than half of our allotted time of 2 hrs. Does anyone else have something to present? I will get the projector and laptop. Cliff
Munson, Clilford From:Munson, Clifford Sent:28 May 2015 11:40:45 -0400 To:John Stamatakos;Graizer, Vladimir;Stovall, Scott;Ake, Jon;Biittain Hill ;Plaza-Toledo, Meralis Cc:Jackson, Diane;DiFrancesco, Nicholas
Subject:
RE: Diablo Canyon RAI Thanks John. They don't define site profiles in terms of the layering, properties, etc. because they do the empirical approach. Cliff From: John Stamatakos [16] Sent: Thursday, May 28, 2015 10:28 AM To: Munson, Clifford; Graizer, Vladimir; Stovall, Scott; Ake, Jon; Hill, Brittain; Plaza-Toledo, Meralis Cc: Jackson, Diane; Difrancesco, Nicholas
Subject:
RE: Diablo canyon RAI
Cliff, I have a comment/question in the RAI..
Thanks,. John From: Munson, Clifford [mailto:Clifford.Munson@nrc.gov) Sent: Thursday, May 28, 2015 9:21 AM To: Graizer, Vladimir; Stovall, Scott; John Stamatakos; Ake, Jon; Brittain Hill; Plaza-Toledo, Meralis Cc: Jackson, Diane; Difrancesco, Nicholas
Subject:
Diablo Canyon RAI First draft of DCPP RAI on site response. Please take a look and let me know if you have any comments ..
Thanks, Cliff
Sent:27 Mar 2015 21 :21 :41 +0000 To:John Stamatakos
Subject:
RE: Diablo Canyon Review
John, Thank you. This is helpful. I assume you meant to. send this to Alan instead.of Amy so I forwarded it to him. Also,. what is the charge number. for this? .
Have a good trip and see you Tuesday. -Ronny From: John Stamatakos Sent: Friday, March 27, 2015 3:01 PM To: Ronald McGinnis; David Ferrill; Amy Minor; Kevin Smart Cc: Miriam R. Juckett
Subject:
Diablo Canyon Review I've place most of my Diablo Canyon files on the DEMPS server (Demps\regios). There are a series of reports that Pacific Gas & Electric (POG&E) produced over the last few years.
1. Shoreline and RIL: The Shoreline report was submitted by PG&E in 2011 and we (with NRC review if in 2012). The Regulatory Information Letter (RIL 12-01) is that review. This report and review focused on the Shoreline fault and pot ential implications to the Licensing Basis for the plant. But the reports offer some good general background information. Other files in.
this . folder are related to the Shoreline Report and the RIL. .
2. DCPP Shoreline and Thrust Fault Allegation: In addition to the Shoreline. Report, NRC had us look at an allegation made b~(b)(6 ) I.about other possible faults and. the plant. Alan helped me. on one of the allegations (possible blind. thrust beneath the plant site} . ..

3. Central Coastal California Seismic Imaging Project: . The California state legislature passed a bill after the Shoreline Report authorizing PG&E to collect boat load of new seismic imaging data. This report is. essentially a data dump of that work, and it has the bulk of what I would like.
you all. to. look at . ..
4. LTSP: This. is an old PG&E report (1991) that may also. be useful as background . .

5. NTIF DCCP PSHA Review: This is the actual new seismic hazard study that we are reviewing. We will need to cross reference the conclusions about faults (do they exist, their geometry, slip rate, length and area, etc.) based on seismic imaging to the data in the CCCSIP report.

6. Diablo Canyon ISFSR SER : This was our review of the site back in early 2000' s for the Independent Spent Fuel Storage Installation (ISFSI). M ay be useful as background information.

7. Figure: is a folder I use to put in various figures and some of my Diablo Presentations and related images.
For reference: http://www.pge.com/en/safety/systemworks/dcpp/seismicsafety/index.page This link gets you to most of these reports on line.
Work Scope: I have five progressive tasks in mind.
l. Look through the CCCSIP documents and develop a summary (catalog) of all the seismic imaging data that's there. Identify the who, what and where and assess its quality and possible usefulness to the PSHA. I think we can do this relatively quickly. We can even bring on a temp/student if available and willing to work on this. NRC wants to be able to say that they are familiar with all the data and have looked it over as part of the review. I would like to have a very quick deliverable on t his (couple of pages?) relatively soon.

2. Identify which data in t he CCCSIP report is actually relied on to develop conclusions in the new PSHA. Assess the validity of the structural/seismic interpretations from the quality of the seismic imaging data. This may take a bit longer t han task 1, but I hope we can do this relatively quickly.

3. Identify potential faults in the data sets that may have been overlooked by the PSHA technical team. I am not suggesting we identify any vague targets, but if you see images that in your v iew (and based on your experience) are very likely significant faults, we should tag them and assess their potential to influence the seismic hazard at the site.

4. For those critica l data sets identified in task 2, complete a technical review of the data and the interpretations. This will be included in our write up for t he overall PSHA assessment.

5. Review the 3D data collected in the Irish Hills to reassess the blind thrust fault model (I t hink it is now referred to as the San Luis Range Thrust).
I'll walk you all through this again next week and provide some more background on the PSHA and how we can assess whether fault sources can be important to the PSHA next week.
Thanks, John Dr. John Stamatakos Director of Technical Programs Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses (CNWRA)
Southwest Research Institute 1801 Rockville Pike, Rockville,. MD. 20852 301-881-0290 jstamatakos@swri.org
Time De~dei')' Model FaJI GeJrn~ry R~~ure SlipRieAlloe ion MaanittJde Dislnb~ion Model (Eq~went ftisscn Ratio) Model Mode Mlda(mmtyr) M n~ude: POr
~~
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18 6.8 P4l ~.~ Hos,1 1.3 H85 H8$02 04J SOllce ~~ p.6) -,. di'ft'1=R'jSSS
~*~ ....-.... BS ....... Tllll' Ci~ ~j1]
D.3 H75 H8)07 O.~ ~ent* 8.1 NIA
~~ p.~ P'651 ~~ P5J
Information (page 495/800) is duplicate. From:John Stamatakos Sent:2 1Apr 2015 16:39:4 1 +0000 To:'Munson , Clifford'
Subject:
RE: diablo scenario events Will do From: Munson, Clifford [17] Sent: Tuesday, April 21, 2015 11:46 AM To: Ake, Jon; John Stamatakos; Graizer, Vladimir Cc: Heeszel, David
Subject:
diablo scenario events
John, Would you come up with some plausible scenario events for Hosgri in terms of the parameters listed below (as a spreadsheet?) . I coded the SWUS GMM for T =1 sec. There are 31 median models each with a unique set of 10 coefficients. I just read in their electronic file as a 31 by 10 matrix to avoid typing errors. I also coded up the total sigma (3 branches with 2 coefficients for each branch).
The input parameters are: 1.. Magnitude (mag)
2. Depth to top of rupture (ztor) in km

3. Rupture distance (rrup) in km 4.. Joyner-Boore distance. (rjb). in km

5. Fault dip angle (dip) in degrees

6. Down-dip rupture width (ddrw) in km 7.. Horizontal distance from top. of rupture measured perpendicular to strike (Rx). in km

8. Fault type (REV,NRM, or SS) - depending on rake angle I. will proceed to code T =0.1 sec and maybe some more. periods if Lhave. time.
I would like to verify our results somehow before we merge these codes with Roland's.
Thanks, Cliff
John From: Munson, Clifford [18] Sent: Tuesday, April 21, 2015 11:46 AM To: Ake, Jon; John Stamatakos; Graizer, Vladimir Cc: Heeszel, David
Subject:
diablo scenario events John,. Would you come up with some plausible scenario events for Hosgri in terms of the parameters listed below (as a spreadsheet?) . I coded the SWUS GMM for T=1 sec. There are 31 median models each with a unique set of 1O coefficients. I just read in their electronic file as a 31 by 1O matrix to avoid typing errors. I also coded up the total sigma (3 branches with 2 coefficients for each branch). The input parameters are:
1. Magnitude (mag)

2. Depth to top of rupture (ztor) in km 3 . Rupture distance (rrup) in km

4. Joyner-Boore distance (rjb) in km

5. Fault dip angle (dip) in degrees

6. Down-dip rupture width (ddrw) in km

7. Horizontal distance from top of rupture measured perpendicular to strike (Rx) in km 8 . Fault type (REV,NRM, or SS) -depending on rake angle I will proceed to code T =0.1 sec and maybe some more periods if I have time.
I would like to verify our results somehow before we merge these codes with Roland 's.
Thanks, Cliff
Osvaldo Pensado From:Osvaldo Pensado Sent: 1 May 2015 09:28: 17 -0500 To :John Stamatakos
Subject:
RE: Function for excel And you wanted to become a manager ... he, he ;) From: John Stamatakos Sent: Friday, May 01, 2015 9:26 AM To: Osvaldo Pensado
Subject:
RE: Function for excel I think so. I am going to see if I can reproduce some of the Licensee results first. Right now I am knee deep in administrvia . John From: Osvaldo Pensado Sent: Friday, May 1, 2015 10:22 AM To: John Stamatakos
Subject:
RE: Function for excel Will the closed form formula for the trapezoidal sampling help you? From: John Stamatakos Sent: Friday, May 01, 2015 9:13 AM To: Osvaldo Pensado
Subject:
RE: Function for excel 20.17752.01.012 Thanks. so much John From: Osvaldo Pensado Sent: Thursday, April 30, 2015 7:23 PM To: John Stamatakos
Subject:
Function for excel Okay John. What is. the charge number? Doing your problem in Mathematica is quite simple. In Excel ... not so much. I give you instructions to get the trapezoidal function in Excel.
For the trapezoidal function for the offset: a=lS. b=26 c=35 d=43 pis a random number uniformly sampled between 0 an 1. It can be sampled with Excel using p=Rand(). Apply it to randomly sampled values of p=Rand() in Excel. The formula is a big sausage with nested if-then statements. At least it is a closed formula . There is a high chance to make a typographical error, though. You should consider programming the formula in a macro. trapezCDFlnv[p_, a_, b_, c_, d_] == If(O $ p&p b- a
< b -a- + c +
d'a + Ja 2 p - b 2 p- acp + bcp - adp + bdp, b- a a+ b - 2c 1 Elself( b d$p&p< b d,- (a+b-ap-bp+cp+dp),
-a - +c+ a + - c- 2 a+ b - 2c Elself[ b d ~ p &p a+ -c- ~ 1, d - -J~a_c_+_b_c___c__--ad___b_d_+_d_
2 2 -_-a_c_p___b_c_p_+_c_2_p_+_a_d_p_+_bd-p---d-2 p]]] This is the plot of the trapezCDFlnv function 40 35 'E i'30 co ~ 25 20 15 00 02 04 06 08 10 Cumulatr;e Probabihty j I derived the formula from the following trapezoid:
0 05 0.04
~
'.(!)i5 0 03 ..0 a_~ 0 02 0 01 0 00 0 10 20 30 40 50 Offset LmJ This is the CDF: parabola segment, followed by a straight line, ending in another parabola segment. 10 gO 8 .D 1:0 0 6 a.. E 04
)
(.) 0 2 00 0 10 20 30 40 50 Offsel~l I felt like programming the formula in Excel for you, but I changed my mind when I saw the sausage. can do the Monte Carlo in no time in Mathematica. I do not feel like touching the sausage. For a Triangular function the formula to use is cdffriangl nv[p_, a_, b_, c_) : = If[p
(b-a)/(c- a) ,a+ Sqrt[(b- a)* (c - a)
p],c- Sqrt[(c- a)* (c -b) * (1
- p)]];
again, p=Rand() To give you an idea on how simple the problem is in Mathematica, this would be the Latin hypercube sampling program (which will be better than random sampling you will do in Excel): shuffle[datos_] :=Module[{pivl,piv2={},indl},pivl=datos; While[Length[pivl]>O , indl=Random[Integer , {1 , Lengt h [pi vl] } ] ; AppendTo[piv2 , pivlindl]; pivl=Drop[pivl , {indl , indl}] ; ] ;
Return[piv2)) ; pvec=shuffle[Table[i , {i , 0 , 1 , 1 . 0 / 5000}]] ; agel=cdfTrianginv[# , 11 . 5 , 12 , 12 . 5]&/ @ pvec; pvec=shuffle[pvec] ; offsetl=trapezCDFinv[# , 15 , 26 , 35 , 43]&/ @ pvec ; dl=EmpiricalDistribution [offsetl/agel] ; And the slip rate is Plot[CDF[dl,x], {x, 0,4}, Frame--+ True, BaseStyle--+ 14, GridLines--+ Automatic, FrameLabel
--+ {"Slip Rate [mm/yr]", "Cumulative Probability"}]
10
~ 08
.D
~
e os Cl. Q}
~ 04 2t
J
§02
() 00 0 1 2 3 4 Slip Rate (mm/yr] Dr. Osvaldo Pensado Group Manager, Risk Analysis and Performance Assessment Geosciences and Engineering Division (210) 522-6084 opensado@swri.org
George Adams From:George Adams. Sent:l May 2015 16:11:37 -0500 To:John Stamatakos
Subject:
RE: Function for excel Attachments:CDANV.xlsm
John, I developed the spreadsheet attached with the macro written in Visual Basic (and shown below). Please let me know if this is what you needed or if an addition to it is needed.
George Option Explicit Function getTrapezCDFlnv(p As Double, a As Double, b As Double, c As Double, d As Double) As Double On Error GoTo errhandler getTrapezCDFlnv = 0# If 0 <= p And p < ((b - a) I (-a - b + c + d}) Then getTrapezCDFlnv =a+ Sqr(a fl 2
p - b fl 2

p - a

c

p + b

c

p - a* d

p + b

d

p)
Elself ((b - a) I (-a - b + c + d)) <= p And p <((a+ b - 2
c) I (a+ b - c - d)) Then getTrapezCDFlnv = 0.5 *(a+ b - a* p - b

p + c

p + d

p)
Elself ((a+ b - 2
c) I (a+ b - c - d)) <= p And p <= 1 Then
=
getTrapezCDFlnv d - Sqr(a
c + b

c - c fl 2 - a

d - b

d + d fl 2 - a* c

p - b

c

p + c fl 2

p +a

d

p + b

d

p - d fl 2

p)
Else getTrapezCDFlnv = -999 End If Exit Function errhandler: MsgBox "Error in getTrapezCDFlnv: " & a & b & c & d End Function Function getTriangCDFlnv(p As Double, a As Double, b As Double, c As Double) As Double On Error GoTo errhandler getTriangCDFlnv = 0# If p <= ((b - a) I (c - a)) Then getTriangCDFlnv =.a+ Sqr((b - a)* (c - a)* p) Elself p <= 1 Then getTriangCDFlnv =.c - Sqr((c - a)* (c - b) * (l - p))
Else getTriangCDFlnv = -999 End If Exit Function errhandler: MsgBox "Error in getTriangCDFlnv: " & a & b & c End Function From: John Stamatakos Sent: Friday, May 01, 2015 2:05 PM To: George Adams
Subject:
FW: Function for excel 20.17752.01.012 is the charge number See attached plot From: Osvaldo Pensado Sent: Thursday, April 30, 2015 7:23 PM To: John Stamatakos
Subject:
Funct.ion for excel Okay John. What is the charge number? Doing your problem in Mathematica is quite simple. In Excel ... not so much. I give you instructions to get the trapezoidal function in Excel. For the trapezoidal function for the offset: a=lS b=26 c=35 d=43 pis a random number uniformly sampled between 0 an 1. It can be sampled with Excel using p=Rand(). Apply it to randomly sampled values of p=Rand() in Excel. The formula is a big sausage with nested if-then statements. At least it is a closed formula . There is a high chance to make a typographical error, though. You should consider programming the formula in a macro.
trapezCDFlnv[p_, a_, b_, c_, d_] := If[O $ p & p b-a
< b -a- + c +
d'a + Ja 2 p - b 2 p- acp + bcp - adp + bdp, b- a a+ b - 2c 1 Elself[ b d::;;p&p< b d,- (a+b-ap-bp+cp+dp),
-a - +c+ a + - c- 2 a+ b- 2c Elself[ b d $ p &p a+ -c- $ 1, d - .J~a-c_+_b_c___ c_
2 -_-a_d___b_d_+_d_2_--a-cp___b_c_p_+_c_2_p_+_ad_p_+_b_d_p___d_2_p]]] This is the plot of the trapezCDFinv function 40 35 20 15 00 02 04 06 08 10 Cumulatiw Probabihty I derived the formula from the following trapezoid: 0 05 0.04 ]; 15 co 0 03 .D
~ 0 02 Q.
0.01 0 00 0 10 20 30 40 50 Offset [mJ This is the CDF: parabola segment, followed by a straight line, ending in another parabola segment.
10 10 20 JO 40 50 Offsel [m] J I felt like programming the formula in Excel for you, but I changed my mind when I saw the sausage. can do the Monte Carlo in no time in Mathematica. I do not feel like touching the sausage . For a Triangular function the formula to use is cdITrianglnv[p_, a_, b_, c_]: = If{p
(b - a)/(c - a), a+ Sqrt[(b - a)* (c - a)* p], c - Sqrt[(c - a)* (c - b) * (1
- p)]];
again, p=Rand() To give you an idea on how simple the problem is in Mathematica, this would be the Latin hypercube sampling program (which will be better than random sampling you will do in Excel}: shuffle[datos_] :=Module[{pivl,piv2={},indl},pivl=datos; While[Length[pivl]>O,indl=Random[Integer,{l,Lengt h [pi vl] } ] ; AppendTo[piv2 , pivlindl]; pivl=Drop[pivl , {indl , indl}] ; ] ; Return[piv2]] ; pvec=shuffle[Table[i,{i , 0 , 1 , 1.0/5000}]]; agel=cdfTrianginv[# , 11.5 , . 12 , 12.5]&/@. pvec ; . pvec=shuffle[pvec] ; offsetl=trapezCDFinv[# , 15 , 26, 35 , 43]&/@ pvec ; dl=EmpiricalDistribution [offsetl/agel] ; And the slip rate is Plot[CDF[dl,x], {x, 0,4}, Frame~ True, BaseStyle ~ 14, GridLines ~Au tomatic, Framelabel
-+{"Slip Rate [mm/yr]", "Cumulative Probability"}]
1 0 0 1 2 3 Slip Rate (mm/yrj Dr. Osvaldo Pensado. Group Manager,. Risk Analysis and Performance Assessment Geosciences and Engineering Division (210) 522-6084 opensado@swri .erg
John Stamatakos From:John Stamatakos Sent:29 Apr 2015 16:25:39 +0000 To:'Giacinto, Joseph'
Subject:
RE: Hosgri Sl ip Rates Ok thanks From: Giacinta, Joseph [19] Sent:. Wednesday, April 29, 2015 12:06. PM To: John Stamatakos; Plaza-Toledo, Meralis
Subject:
RE: Hosgri Slip Rates Sounds good to me - thanks. Also, I have your flash drive - you can pick it up (I will leave in the rock ashtray outside my T7C30 office on top of the file cabinet) or I'll give to you next time I see you. Joe From: John Stamatakos [ mailto:jstam@swri.org) Sent:. Wednesday, April 29, 2015 12:03 PM To:. Giacinta, Joseph; Plaza-Toledo, Meralis
Subject:
RE: Hosgri Slip Rates How about I talk with San antonio today and we can meet tomorrow morning? We can set up a follow up call with them if needed. John From: Giacinta, Joseph [20] Sent: Wednesday, April 29, 2015 12:00 PM To: John Stamatakos; Plaza-Toledo, Meralis
Subject:
RE: Hosgri Slip Rates John, can we have the call tomorrow - say late morning? Joe From: John Stamatakos [ mailto:jstam@swri.org) Sent: Wednesday, April 29, 2015 11:53 AM To:. Giacinto, Joseph; Plaza-Toledo, Meralis Cc: Munson, Clifford; Ake, Jon;. Jackson, Diane; Stirewalt, Gerry; Seber,. Dogan; Miriam R. Juckett;. Graizer, Vladimir; Hill, Brittain
Subject:
Hosgri Slip Rates
Joe and Meralis, One of the. more. interesting, and more hazard sensitive, aspects of the Diablo canyon SSC is the Hosgri slip rate CDF. I suggest we focus our initial reviews on. that aspect of the. SSC. Dogan made a critical observation yesterday in our discussions, namely how can the lower tail of the CDF be justified. In thinking through t he question last night I have a few suggestions.
1. We should look at the seismic imaging data from the CCCSIP that PG&E uses to constrain the slip (interpretations of offset paleo-channels). There are 4 piercing points that PG&E uses to develop the composite slip rate CDF for the Hosgri fault. The slip rate data used for these 4 points is summarized in:

a. San Simeon/Oso Terrace - Figure 8-16

b. Point Estero Cross-Hosgri Slope - Figure 8-18

c. Estero Bay Submarine Channel - Figure 8.28

d. Point Sal Channel F - Figure 8.32 For each of these we should understand how the cumulative slip was determined (and uncertainty) and how the offset age was determined (and uncertainty).

1. Age: For San Simeon, the age is based on the interpretation that the unconformity overlying the buried geomorphic featured tied to the Younger Dryas, so this one is rather straightforward. But the other three, especially Estero Bay and Point Sal, ages are based on interpretations of age ranges from the seal level curves. So we will need to understand how the Tl team interpreted the offset parkers in terms of these curves and whether other interpretations outside the ones provided are permissible.

2. Slip: All the slip estimates are based on interpretations of the 2D and 3D seismic images and detailed sea floor bathymetry. I am going to ask my San Antonio team to look over these images from Chapter 8 of the SSC report to help us understand how the images were interpreted and to assess the overall quality of the interpretations. I am also interested in understanding whether the full range of uncertainty is included in the Tl team's interpretations.
We could also ask Cliff and Jon to some sensitivity studies to constrain the limits of what we are looking for. I think it might be helpful here to know how far the current slip rate estimates would have to be different from those. used in the study to move the hazard needle. For example, what if the Tl team were off by a single Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage (MIS)? For most of these my very preliminary guesstimate is. that would correspond to. about a 25% increase. in the slip rates . . Would such. an increase. in rates be significant? I. am going to have a call. with my San Antonio. team this afternoon,. and would be happy to have you both on the call.. Right now the call is set for 3:00 this afternoon, but it can adjusted to meet your schedules.
Thanks, John
Dr. John Stamatakos Director of Technical Programs Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses (CNWRA) Southwest Research Institute 1801 Rockville Pike, Rockville, MD 20852 301-881-0290 jstamatakos@swri.org
John Stamatakos From:John Stamatakos Sent:29 Apr 2015 16:03:28. +0000 To:'Giacinto, Joseph';Plaza-Toledo, Meralis
Subject:
RE: Hosgri Sl ip Rates How about I talk with San antonio today and we can meet tomorrow morning? We can set up a follow up call with them if needed. John From: Giacinto, Joseph [21] Sent: Wednesday, April 29, 2015 12:00 PM To: John Stamatakos; Plaza-Toledo, Meralis
Subject:
RE: Hosgri Slip Rates John, can we have the call tomorrow - say late morning? Joe From: John Stamatakos [ mailto:jstam@swri.org] Sent: Wednesday, April 29, 2015 11:53 AM To:. Giacinta, Joseph; Plaza-Toledo, Meralis Cc: Munson, Clifford; Ake, Jon; Jackson, Diane; Stirewalt, Gerry; Seber, Dogan; Miriam R. Juckett; Graizer, Vladimir; Hill, Brittain
Subject:
Hosgri Slip Rates Joe and Meralis, One of the more interesting, and more hazard sensitive, aspects of the Diablo canyon SSC is the Hosgri slip rate CDF. I suggest we focus our initial reviews on that aspect of the SSC. Dogan made a critical observation yesterday in our discussions, namely how can the lower tail of the CDF be justified. In thinking through the question last night I have a few suggestions.
1. We should look at t he seismic imaging data from the CCCSIP that PG&E uses to constrain the slip (interpretations of offset paleo-channels). There are 4 piercing points that PG&E uses to develop the composite slip rate CDF for the Hosgri fault. The slip rate data used for these 4 points is summarized in:

a. San Simeon/Oso Terrace- Figure 8-16

b. Point Estero Cross-Hosgri Slope - Figure 8-18

c. Estero Bay Submarine Channel - Figure 8.28

d. Point Sal Channel F - Figure 8.32 For each of these we should understand how the cumulative slip was determined (and uncertainty) and how the offset age was determined (and uncertainty).

1. Age:. For San Simeon,. the age is. based on the interpretation that the unconformity overlying the buried geomorphic featured t ied to the Younger Dryas, so this. one is rather.
straightforward. But the other three, especially Estero Bay and Point Sal~ ages are based on interpretations of age ranges from the seal level curves. So we will need to understand how the Tl team interpreted the offset parkers in terms of these curves. and whether other interpretations outside the ones provided are permissible.
2. Slip: All the slip estimates are based on interpretations of the 20 and 3D seismic images and detailed sea floor bathymetry. I am going to ask my San Antonio team to look over these images from Chapter 8 of the SSC report to help us understand how the images were interpreted and to assess the overall quality of the interpretations. I am also interested in understanding whether the full range of uncertainty is included in the Tl team's interpretations.
We could also ask Cliff and Jon to some sensitivity studies to constrain the limits of what we are looking for. I think it might be helpful here to know how far the current slip rate estimates would have to be different from those used in the study to move the hazard needle. For example, what if the Tl team were off by a single Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage (MIS)? For most of these my very preliminary guesstimate is that would correspond to about a 25% increase in the slip rates. Would such an increase in rates be significant? I am going to have a call with my San Antonio team this afternoon, and would be happy to have you both on the call. Right now the call is set for 3:00 this afternoon, but it can adjusted to meet your schedules.
Thanks, John Dr. John Stamatakos Director ofTechnical Programs Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses (CNWRA)
Southwest Research Institute 1801 Rockville Pike, Rockville, MD 20852 301-881-0290 jstamatakos@swri.org
John Stamatakos From:John Stamatakos Sent:29 Apr 2015 16:02:21 +0000 To:'Plaza-Toledo, Meralis' Cc:Giacinto, Joseph
Subject:
RE: Hosgri Slip. Rates. OK Ill get a bridge From: Plaza-Toledo, Meralis [mailto:Meralis.Plaza-Toledo@nrc.gov) Sent: Wednesday, April 29, 2015 11:59 AM To: John Stamatakos Cc: Giacinta, Joseph
Subject:
RE: Hosgri Slip Rates
John, I have some meetings in the afternoon but I will try to join the call, it may be a bit late though.
Meralis From: John Stamatakos [ mailto:jstam@swri.org) Sent: Wednesday, April 29, 2015 11:53 AM To: Giacinta, Joseph; Plaza-Toledo, Meralis Cc: Munson, Clifford; Ake, Jon; Jackson, Diane; Stirewalt, Gerry; Seber, Dogan; Miriam R. Juckett; Graizer, Vladimir; Hill, Brittain
Subject:
Hosgri Slip Rates Joe and Meralis, One. of the more interesting, and more. hazard sensitive, aspects of the Diablo canyon SSC is. the Hosgri. slip rate CDF. I suggest we focus our initial reviews. on that aspect of the SSC. Dogan made a critical observation yesterday in our discussions, namely how can the lower tail of the CDF be justified. In thinking through the question last night I have a few suggestions.
1. We should look at t he seismic.. imaging data from the CCCSIP that PG&E uses to constrain the slip (interpretations of offset paleo-channels). There are. 4 piercing points t hat PG&E uses. to.
develop t he composite slip rate CDF for. the Hosgri fault .. The slip rate. data used for these 4 points is summarized in: .
a. San Simeon/Oso Terrace - Figure 8-16

b. Point Estero Cross-Hosgri Slope - Figure 8-18

c. Estero Bay Submarine Channel - Figure 8.28

d. Point Sal Channel F - Figure 8.32 For each of t hese we should underst and how the cumulative slip was determined (and uncertainty) and how the offset age was determined (and uncertainty).

1. Age: For San Simeon, the age is based on the interpretation that the unconformity overlying the buried geomorphic featured tied to the Younger Dryas, so this one is. rather straightforward, But the. other three, especially Estero. Bay and Point Sal, ages are based on interpretations of age ranges from the seal level. curves. So we will need to understand how the Tl team interpreted the offset parkers in terms of these curves and whether other interpretations outside the ones provided are permissible.

2. Slip: All the slip estimates are based on interpretations of the 2D and 30 seismic images and detailed sea floor bathymetry. I am going to ask my San Antonio team to look over these images from Chapter 8 of the SSC report to help us understand how the images were interpreted and to assess the overall quality of the interpretations. I am also interested in understanding whether the full range of uncertainty is included in the Tl team's interpretations.
We could also ask Cliff and Jon to some sensitivity studies to constrain the limits of what we are looking for. I think it might be helpful here to know how far the current slip rate estimates would have to be different from those used in the study to move the hazard needle. For example, what if the Tl team were off by a single M arine Oxygen Isotope Stage {M IS) ? For most of these my very preliminary guesstimate is that would correspond to about a 25% increase in the slip rates. Would such an increase in rates be significant? I am going to have a call with my San Antonio team this afternoon, and would be happy to have you both on the call. Right now the call is set for 3:00 this afternoon, but it can adjusted to meet your schedules.
Thanks, John Or. John Stamatakos Director of Technical Programs Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses (CNWRA)
Southwest Research Inst itute 1801 Rockville Pike, Rockville, MD 20852 301-881-0290 jstamatakos@swri.org
John Stamatakos From:John Stamatakos Sent:29 Apr 2015 17: 11: 17 +0000 To:'Seber, Dogan'
Subject:
RE: Hosgri Slip Rates. Absolutely. Let me get Joe and Meralis up to speed on the data and some also get some high-level assessments of the seismic images from my guys. Then we can get together to comb through the details a bit and talk about what we should do next. Your insights would be very helpful and appreciated. I'll keep you posted.
Thanks, John From: Seber, Dogan [22]
Sent: Wednesday, April 29, 2015 1:07 PM To: John Stamatakos
Subject:
RE: Hosgri Slip Rates
John, Thanks for pursuing this . Since I am not part of the Diablo Canyon review team, I have not looked at any of the issues in detail. However, having seen some of the presentations at the SSA meeting last week in Pasadena and seeing what the licensee is doing with slip rates yesterday, I really think there needs to be a special focus in NRC reviews to figure out whether adequate slip rates (not just the PG&E contractors , but also other efforts by USGS etc) are utilized in PG&E PSHA study. As you know, this directly impacts the PSHA results. I am always happy and ready to talk with anyone in more detail, if there is any need.

Best, Dogan Seber, PhD Senior Geophysicist Geosciences and Geotechnical Engineering Branch 1 Division of Site Safety and Environmental Analysis Office of New Reactors U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission w 301-415-0212 From: John Stamatakos [23]
Sent: Wednesday, April 29, 2015 11 :53 AM To: Giacinta, Joseph; Plaza-Toledo, Meralis Cc: Munson, Clifford; Ake, Jon; Jackson, Diane; Stirewalt, Gerry; Seber, Dogan; Miriam R. Juckett; Graizer, Vladimir; Hill, Brittain
Subject:
Hosgri Slip Rates
Joe and Meralis,. One of the more interesting,. and more hazard sensitive, aspects of the. Diablo. canyon SSC is the Hosgri slip rate CDF. I suggest we focus our initial reviews on that aspect of the SSC. Dogan made a critical observation yesterday in our discussions,. namely how can. the lower tail. of the CDF be just ified. In thinking through the question last night I have a few suggestions.
1. We should look at the seismic imaging data from the CCCSIP that PG&E uses to constrain the slip (interpretat ions of offset paleo-channels). There are 4 piercing points that PG&E uses to develop the composite slip rate CDF for the Hosgri fault. The slip rate data used for these 4 points is summarized in:

a. San Simeon/Oso Terrace- Figure 8-16

b. Point Estero Cross-Hosgri Slope - Figu re 8-18

c. Estero Bay Submarine Channel - Figure 8.28

d. Point Sal Channel F - Figure 8.32 For each of these we should understand how the cumulative slip was determined (and uncertainty) and how the offset age was determined (and uncertainty).

1. Age: For San Simeon, the age is based on the interpretation that the unconformity overlying the buried geomorphic featured tied to the Younger Dryas, so this one is rather straightforward. But the other three, especially Estero Bay and Point Sal, ages are based on interpretations of age ranges from the seal level curves. So we will need to understand how the Tl team interpreted the offset parkers in terms of these curves and whether other interpretations outside the ones provided are permissible.

2. Slip: All the slip estimates are based on interpretations of the 2D and 3D seismic images and detailed sea floor bathymetry. I am going to ask my San Antonio team to look over these images from Chapter 8 of the SSC report to help us understand how the images were interpreted and to assess the overall quality of the interpretations. I am also interested in understanding whether the full range of uncertainty is included in the Tl team's interpretations.
We could also ask Cliff and Jon to some sensitivity studies to constrain the limits of what we are looking for. I think it might be helpful here to know how far the current slip rate estimates would have to be different from those used in the study to move the hazard needle. For example, what if the Tl team were off by a single Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage (MIS)? For most of these my very preliminary guesstimate is that would correspond to about a 25% increase in the slip rates . . Would such an increase in rates. be significant? I am going to have a call with my San Antonio team this. afternoon, and would be. happy to have you both on the. call. Right now the call is. set for 3:00 this afternoon,. but it can adjusted to meet your. schedules.
Thanks, John.
Dr. John Stamatakos Director of Technical Programs Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses (CNWRA) Southwest Research Institute 1801 Rockville Pike, Rockville, MD 20852 301-881-0290 jstamatakosc@swn .org
Munson, Clifford From:Munson, Clifford Sent:8 Jun 2015 13:32:28 +0000 To:Graizer, Yladimir;Ake, Jon ;John Stamatakos;Stovall, Scott;Brittain Hill ;Weaver, Thomas;Devl in-Gill , Stephanie;Walsh, Lisa;Seber, Dogan Cc:Jackson, Diane
Subject:
RE: presentation for DCPP on Diablo site term Great. We will have you present after John. Cliff From : Graizer, Vladimir . Sent: Friday, June 05, 2015 3:29 PM To: Munson, Clifford; Ake, Jon; John Stamatkos; Stovall, Scott; Hill, Brittain; Weaver, Thomas; Devlin-Gill, Stephanie; Walsh, Lisa; Seber, Dogan Cc: Jackson, Diane
Subject:
presentation for DCPP on Diablo site term I used alternative approach. to. estimation of Diablo site term. I can. present my calcs comparing with theirs. at our Wednesday, June 10th meeting. Vladimir
Munson, Clifford From:Munson, Clifford Sent:28 May 2015 10:00:37 -0400 To:Graizer, Yladimir;Jackson, Diane Cc:John Stamatakos;Ake, Jon ;Plaza-Toledo, Merali s;Giacinto, Joseph ;Stovall , Scott;B1ittain Hill;Li, Yong
Subject:
RE: Reminder sent to Diablo for Information Request Thanks Vlad .. We will ask for this in the next batch of requests to DCPP . . Cliff From : Graizer, Vladimir Sent: Thursday, May 28, 2015 9:54 AM To: Jackson, Diane; Munson, Clifford Cc: John Stamatakos; Ake, Jon; Plaza-Toledo, Meralis; Giacinta, Joseph; Stovall, Scott; Hill, Brittain; Li, Yong
Subject:
RE: Reminder sent to Diablo for Information Request Diane and Cliff, I. don't know if it is considered an RAI, but as I mentioned at one of the Diablo meetings I need the following info: Section 8.4.1 of the SWUS report discusses evaluation of median base models and their range. Please provide Excel files of the. plots shown on Figures 8.4-17 and 8.4-18 showing comparisons of hazard curves for frequencies of 5 and 0.5 Hz. In addition, please provide similar files for the frequencies of 10 and 1 Hz. Vladimir Graizer, Ph.D. Seismologist Office of New Reactors Mail Stop: T-7F3 Washington, DC 20555-0001 From : Jackson, Diane Se nt: Thursday, May 28, 2015 9:43 AM To: Munson, Clifford Cc: Graizer, Vladimir; John Stamatakos; Ake, Jon; Plaza-Toledo, Meralis; Giacinta, Joseph; Stovall, Scott; Hill, Brittain; Li, Yong
Subject:
FYI: Reminder sent to Diablo for Information Request Nick sent a reminder. Diane From: Difrancesco, Nicholas Sent: Thursday, May 28, 2015 9: 16 AM To: Philippe Soenen (Pns3@oge.com); Jahangir, Nozar Cc: Michael Richardson (mjrm@oge.com); Strickland, Jearl; Shams, Mohamed; Jackson, Diane; Vega,
Frankie
Subject:
Reminder on Diablo Information Request Philippe, et, al Just a rem inder that the staff is interested in the following references to support NRC review:
1) Benchmark files for SWUS-DCPP median ground motion models.

2) ESTA 27 and 28 recordings of Parkfield and San Simeon earthquakes

a. Time histories

b. Response spectra

c. Response spectra adjusted for Vs30

3) Engineering reports describing development of velocity profiles for stations ESTA 27 and 28.

4) Paper. describing WAACY. Magnitude PDF by Wooddell and others.
Please let me know when the references will be available.
Thanks, Nick Senior Project Manager - Seismic Reevaluation Activities U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation Japan Lesson Learned Project Division nicholas.difrancesco@nrc.gov I Tel: (301) 415-1115
Hill ~ Brittain From:Hill, Brittain Sent: 18 Mar 2015 14:33:09 -0400 To:Miriam R. Juckett;.John Stamatakos
Subject:
RE: Seismic. Commun ications Plan Attachments:IBMgetContent.docx Here ya go - same nonpublic restrictions apply as usual. Britt From : Juckett, Miriam R. [24] Sent: Wednesday, March 18, 2015 2:02 PM To: Hill, Brittain
Subject:
RE: Seismic Communications Plan Britt-Unfortunately, I can't access non-public ADAMS. Can you send me/John a copy separately? Thanks! Miriam From : Hill, Brittain [ mailto:Brittain.Hill@nrc.gov] Sent: Wednesday, March 18, 2015 12:56 PM To: Jackson, Diane; Munson, Clifford; Ake, Jon; Graizer, Vladimir; Seber, Dogan; Stieve, Alice; Plaza-Toledo, Meralis; Devlin-Gill, Stephanie; Weaver,. Thomas; Stovall, Scott; Gerry. Stirewalt; Li,. Yong;. Walsh, Lisa; Heeszel, David; Difrancesco,. Nicholas; John Stamatakos; Miriam R. Juckett Cc: Karas, Rebecca
Subject:
Seismic Communications Plan We recently updated the Communications Plan for 2.1 seismic to give some Q&A's for WUS topics, including why the review process is a bit different than for the CEUS plants. Many folks (including OPA) have contributed to writing , refining , and agreeing to the answers for these questions, including JLD and DSEA management. Nevertheless, please note that this is an internal use document and not publically available on ADAMS. View ADAMS P8 Properties ML14083A619 Open ADAMS. P8 Document (5/21/2014, Communication Plan for Seismic Hazard Re-Evaluation Submittals in Response to NTTF Recommendation 2 .1, Seismic) Thanks-Britt
Sent: 17 Apr 20 15 03:32:30 +0000 To:Munson, Clifford Cc:Ake, Jon
Subject:
RE: Source Questions for DCPP visit? Here are some preliminary questions. There is no question that every part of this approach is unique. Diablo Canyon Questions I. Hosgri fau lt: Summarize the key seismic imagi ng , earthquake, geophysical, or geological information used to constrain the slip rate of the Hosgri fault.
2. Thrust faulting: Although the proposed San Luis Range Thrust is not explicitly modeled in the logic tree, can you clarify how elements of the thrust/reverse interpretation are incorporated into the SSC?

3. Fault Slip Rate Model: Can you clarify (maybe by an example) how you extract the "target slip rate budget" from the slip rate CDF, and use it to assign fractional fault slip rates to the multiple fault segments in the fault geometry model (FMG).

4. Funhcr to Q3, can you clarify (again by example) how the slip rate allocation is accomplished among the four different types ruptw*e sources (characteristic, linked, complex, and splay).

5. Rupture Models: Can you clarify how rupture models are derived from the FMGs. The approach seems to be that because reasonable rupture combinations within a rupture. model are included in the logic tree, aleatory variability with a given FGM is then accounted for? But is. there additional epistemic uncertainty in how you constructed the FMGs?

6. . Magintude-frequency~ Explain how the four different magnitude-frequency distribution functional forms were de1ived and how they are used in reference to the characteristic and maximum magnitude distributions?

7. Recurrence: Can you summarize the methodology used to define t11e equivalent Poisson rates?
From: Munson, Clifford [Clifford.Munson@nrc.gov] Sent: Thursday, April 16, 2015 2:28 PM To: John Stamatakos Cc: Ake, Jon
Subject:
Source Questions for DCPP visit?
John, Do you have some source questions that we PG&E to cover other than a basic overview of the SSH AC report?

Thanks, Cliff
Sent:6 Apr 2015 2 1:27:00 +0000 To:Alan Morris ;Ronald McGinnis;David Ferrill;Sarah Wigginton Cc:John Stamatakos
Subject:
RE: Work in progress ... Looks pretty good to me. I think is w ill couple n icely to the mega data table. I'd vote. to keep everything for now and. only start pruning if/when we. absolutely have. to. --Kevin From: Alan Morris Sent: Monday, April 06, 2015 3:06 PM To: Ronald McGinnis; David Ferrill; Sarah Wigginton; Kevin Smart Cc: John Stamatakos
Subject:
RE: Work in progress... OK, it's 8 pages, and maybe too long, but for some reason these reports are always prol ix. Is t his what we need? Does it need pruning? Does it need analysis? Does it need anyth ing? Alan Alan Morris Department of Earth, Material, and Planetary Sciences Geosciences and E ngineering Division Southwest Research Institute 6220 Culebra Road. San Antonio. TX 78238. USA Tel: 210.522.6743 Fax: 210.522.5155 Web page: http://www.swri.org/4org/d20/geosci/structur.htm http://3dstress. s wri .org/ From: Alan Morris Sent: Friday, April 03, 2015 4:51 PM To: Ronald McGinnis; David Ferrill; Sarah Wigginton; Kevin Smart Cc: John Stamatakos
Subject:
Work in progress...
T:\Diablo Canyon\Diablo Canyon\CNWRA report April 2015\DiabloCanyonPowerPlant - seism ic risk data. survey April 2015.docx I. was planning. to cycle back through. adding important conclusions for. every chapter, but any of us could do that... Chapter 1 is very useful in giving summaries of the data and goals for each of the subsequent chapters. For the tornado diagram,. equations 1-1 and 1-2 in chapter 13 are the key. Gotta check posters for next week ... Happy Easter Alan AJan Morris Department of Earth, Material, and Planetary Sciences Geosciences and Engineering Division Southwest Research Jnstinite 6220 Cule bra Road, San Antonio, TX 78238, USA Tel: 2 10.522.6743 Fax: 210.522.5155 Web page: http://www.swri.org/4org/d20/geosci/structur.htm htcp://3dscress.swri.org/
John Stamatakos From:John Stamatakos Sent: 14 Apr 2015 16:01:32 +0000 To: David Ferrill;Alan Morris;Kevin Smart;Ronald McGinni s;Wesley Patrick;Gordon Wittmeyer;Miriarn R. Juckett
Subject:
Sarah Wigginton
David, Just wanted to let you know that the Diablo Canyon work is moving along very well. Many thanks so far to the DEPMs team for your inputs. They have been very helpful. I am especially grateful for Sarah' s work. I've had a few follow-up calls with her and I am so impressed with her and her abilities. We should do all we can to retain her.. She is clearly. out standing.

Thanks, John Dr. John Stamatakos Director of Technical Programs Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses (CNWRA)
Southwest Research Institute 1801 Rockville Pike, Rockville, MD 20852 301-881-0290 jstamatakos@swri.org
Munson, Clifford From:Munson, Clifford Sent: 1 Jun 2015 17 :23 :37. +0000 To:Ake, Jon ;John Starnatakos;Brittain Hill ;Stovall, Scott Cc:Jackson, Diane
Subject:
See added sentence in yellow - thanks! Attachments:DCPP RAI (draft 3).docx Let me know if I captured this correctly.
Thanks, Cliff
George. Adams From:George Adams Sent:7 May 2015 11: 12: 17 -0500 To:John. Stamatakos
Subject:
SPREA DSHEET
John, I found the error just after you left. The worksheet was renamed. It had a few characters following the normal text. The name of the worksheet Hardcoded in the macro and shown in fluorescent green below didn't match the worksheet name.
Worksheets( 'Oso Terrace Ho -George -
Information (602-669/800) is in scope of FOIA and should be released . Alan Morris From:Alan Morris. Sent:22 May 2015 14:50:52 +0000 To:Kevin Smart;Ronald McGinnis;David Ferrill;Sarah Wigginton
Subject:
Stuff l have done for Diablo Canyon Most of what I have done is in the realm of self-education: T:\Diablo Canyon\APM's stuff\Diablo Canyon-overview-APM.ppt - a work in progress ... T:\Diablo Canyon\Diablo Canyon - Workshop presentations - selected presentations downloaded from: http://www.pge.com/mybusiness/edusafety/systemworks/dcpp/SSHAC/workshops/index.shtml Also, this document is very useful: T:\Diablo Canyon\Diablo Canyon NRC\NTIF DCCP PSHA Review\DCPP SSC Report Rev A.pdf That's all folks --Alan Alan Mo rris Department of Earth, Material, and Planetary Sciences. Geosciences. and Engineering Division Southwest Research Tnstinite 6220. Culebra Road. San Antonio, TX 78238, USA Tel: 210.522.6743 Fax: 210.522.5155 Web page: hnp://www.swri.org/4org/d20/geosci/structur.htm http://3dstress.swri.org/
George. Adams From:George Adams Sent:4 May 2015 16:54:59 -0500 To:John. Stamatakos
Subject:
UPDATE
John, I placed an update to the spreadsheet at: S:\John Stamatakos\Slip and Age Distributions GA.xlsm You can change the parameters and hit the calculate button. It does everything: copy, calculate, and sort. I set the calculate options to "Manual" Hitting F9 will force calculate I added pdf plots (not certain about these though, please check)
George
Alan Mon-is From:Alan Morris. Sent:3 Apr2015 2 1:5 1:07 +0000 To:Ronald McGinnis;David FerriU ;Sarah Wigginton;Kevin Smart Cc:John Stamatakos
Subject:
Work, in progress ... T:\Diablo Canyon\Diablo Canyon\CNWRA report April 2015\ DiabloCanyonPowerPlant - seismic risk data survey April 2015.docx I was planning to cycle back through adding important conclusions for every chapter, but any of us could do that... Chapter 1 is very useful in giving summaries of the data and goals for each of the subsequent chapters. For the tornado diagram, equations 1-1 and 1-2 in chapter 13 are. the. key. Gotta check posters for next week... Happy Easter Alan Alan Morris Departmenr of Earth, Material. and Planetary Sciences Geosciences and Engineering Division Southwest Research Institute 6220 Culebra Road, San Antonio, TX 78238, USA Tel: 2 10.522.6743 Fax: 2 10.522.5 155 Web page: http://www.swri.org/4org/d20/geosci/structur.htm http://3dstress.swri.org/
Informal review ofThe Central Coastal California Seismic Imaging Project (CCCSIP) report (Pacific Gas and Electric Company) By GED April 2015 The Central Coastal California Seismic Imaging Project (CCCSIP) report was produced by the Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) in response to a 2008 recommendation by the California Energy Commission (CEC). The California Energy Commission's 2008 report "An Assessment of California's Nuclear Power Plants: AB. 1632 Report", also known as the. " AB. 1632 Report", recommended that Pacific Gas and Electric perform a series of geophysical investigations to explore fault zones near the Diablo Canyon Power Plant (DCPP). A primary goal of the investigations was to improve understanding of the seismic risk to the Diablo Canyon Power Plant, specifically:
Hosgri Fault Zone slip rate

Hosgri Fault Zone dip

Hosgri-San Simeon fault zone step-over (i.e., are these fau lts linked so that will rupture i n unison?)

Los Osos fault zone slip rate

Los Osos fault zone dip

Los Osos fault zone sense of slip

Hosgri- Shoreline fau lt zone rupture (i.e., are these fau lts linked so that will rupture in unison?)

Shoreline fault zone slip rate

Shoreline fault zone southern extent

Shoreline fault zone segmentation These issues were chosen because of their importance in choosing seismic source parameters used to model the seismic hazard for the Diablo Canyon Power Plant, and because of the uncertainty associated with them. Hazard is expressed as probability of ground motion acceleration exceeding 2 g at the key frequency of 5 hertz . Comment [a1]: t think this Is the frequency 1ha1 is most damaain& to human structures. and ii is part of the NRC's seismic hazard regulation.
Three areas of study were specifically prescribed by the AB1632 report: (1) PG&E should use th ree-dimensional geophysical seismic reflection mapping and other advanced techniques to explore fault zones near Diablo Canyon. (2) As ground motion models are refined to account for a greater understanding of the motion near an earthquake rupture, it w ill be important for PG&E to consider whether the models indicate larger than expected seismic hazards at Diablo Canyon and if so, whether the plant was built with sufficient design margins to continue operating reliably after experiencing these large ground motions. 1
(3) PG&E should assess the implications of a ~an Simeon-type earthquak beneath Oiablo Canyon. Comment [ KJS2 ] : Ooo* lhi* need to be defined/described somewhere or some reference This assessment should include expected ground motions and vulnerability assessments for citatio n provided? safety-related and non-safety related plant systems and components that might be sensitive to long period motions in the near. field of. an earthquake rupture. A range of data is presented and analyzed in the Central Coastal California Seismic Imaging Project report, most of it collected between 2009 and 2014, but including and drawing upon a variety of work performed over the previous 30 years. Work incorporated in the report was performed by PG&E, its contractors, and by the United States Geological Survey. The report is organized into the following sections: Marine seismic reflection surveys (including analysis of natural seismicity data) Chapters 2 and 4 - 20/30 low-energy seismic surveying (LESS) to map t he tAe-Hosgri, Shoreline and Point Buchon fault zones and associated folding west, northwest and north of Oiablo Canyon Power Plant. Chapter.4 includes older. ~deep-penetration seismic data to investigate linkage between Hosgri and San Simeon fau lt zones and folding offshore and south of the Los Osos fault zone. Important conclusions, chapter 2:
* "The main structural elements mapped in the study area are the Hosgri fault zone (HFZ), the Point Buchon fault zone, and a prominent syncline that deforms Tertiary strata in the southern two thirds of the study area." * "The Hosgri fault zone consists of numerous fa ult strands and is the best imaged and most continuous and complex fault zone in the region." * " ... the local style of faulting changes along strike of the Hosgri fault zone. Graben A, bounded by right-stepping strands of the Hosgri fault zone in the north, indicates extensional strike slip faulting. A single fault strand characterizes the fault zone in the center of the study area.
Numerous, relatively short strands fan out to the southeast and are associated with folds in the south, indicating compressional strike-slip faulting."
* "The Point Buchon fa ult zone, northwest of the centra l segment of the Shoreline fault zone, is a northwest-trending fau lt that disrupts Tertiary strata east of the HFZ" * " ... the Point Buchon fault zone may connect to the central segment of the Shoreline fault zone and associated structures" * "Graben B is associated with the northern end of the Point Buchon fau lt zone" * " ...the structural relationship between the two grabens (A and BJ and structures within Estero Bay to the north of the study area needs to be further evaluated"
Because " the 30/20 data are restricted to the shallow subsurface, the mapped surficial faults.
cannot be confidently extended to the earthquake hypocentrai depths. Therefore, no conclusion can be made in regard to these faults being the source of the earthquakes that constitute the. northern Shoreline seismicity sublineament" 2
Important conclusions, chap ter 4:
* " ...we w ere unable to observe any clear evidence in the seismic-reflection data for a recent fault connecting the San Simeon fault zone with the Hosgri f ault zone. Our interpretations do not preclude the existence. of a fault at depth or the possibility of. a. future rupture along this fault at depth, including propagation to the surface." * " ... we map the newly named Half Graben fault zone, a series of fa ults along which a half graben has formed, down-dropped on the east and tilted to the west ... The half graben Is narrow In the north ... To the south, the half graben widens considerably and appears to end near ... the Los Osos fault zone" Chapter 3 - 2D/ 3D low-energy seismic surveying (LESS) to identify the southern extent, geometry, connectivity, and slip rate of the Shoreline fault, and the slip rate on the Hosgri fault zone. Older deep penetration data are also used.
Importa nt conclusions:
* "Pierci ng points identified for constraining offset s along t he Shoreline, Oceano, and Hosgri ~
fault zones were identified ... buried paleochannels and paleoshorelines (paleostrandlines) were th e best geomorphic features to use in evaluati ng offsets."
* " These studies reveal a more complex (Hosgri) fault zone t han had previously been mapped" * " ...strands of the Hosgri fault zone [in t he Estero Bay area) are generally st eeply dipping t o vertical..." * " ...sense of vertical separation across the Hosgri fault zone [in the Est ero Bay area) is dominantly down to t he west .. ." *. "Channel offsets and thei r Interpreted ages yield a pref erred lateral slip rate for the Hosgri fault zone in Est ero Bay of approximat ely 1.6 +/- 0.8 mm/yr within a high (90%) confidence interval.
Accounting for uncert ainties in ages and offset estimates, the ra nge in lateral slip rat e is betw een. approximat ely 0.2 mm/ yr and. 3.6 mm/yr."
* [In the Point Sal Area] " The new mapping ... shows that from south to north, t he Hosgri fau lt zone splits from a single strand with little. or no vertical separation to multiple splays with subst antial vertica l and dextral shear, which converge to form a single strand once more .... with t ranst ension in the south and transpression in the north. There is an approximat e 6-degree change in the strike of the Hosgri fault zone..." [ Comment [a 3]: Can you speUr-*H-a-y? * "Channel Complex F provides t he preferred piercing point s fo r estimati ng slip rates on the Hosgri fault zone in t he Point Sal area." * " a minimum estimat ed slip rat e of 0.39 mm/yr (1.4 Ma at 550 m minimum offset) and a maximum estimated slip rat e of 5.07 mm/yr (138 ka at 700 m maximum offset) is calculat ed fo r t he Hosgri fau lt zo ne at Point Sal" Chapter 5 - Deployment and monitoring of ocean bottom seismographs (OBS)
Important conclusions: 3
* "offshore events close to but outside the ocean bottom seismographs stations will have improved depth control; however, these events are still.subject to.uncertainty, particularly w ith regard to the focal mechanisms."
Chapter 6 - Characterization of the Hosgri fault zone using primarily post 1988 seismic reflection data but also some.gravity and magnetic surveys. A 30 high-energy.seismic survey (HESS). wa s proposed by PG&E, however, the California Coastal Commission denied PG&E's application due to concerns about the environmental impact of these studies. Important conclusions:
"Earlier models. .... that identified. the Hosgri. fault zone. as a major. thrust fau lt underlying the Coast Ranges are not supported by the_(older) high-energy marine 20. seismic-reflection data acquired duri ng the Long Term Seismic Program (LTSP); nor are they supported by potential field and seismicity data collected during the Long Term Seismic Program Update and Central Coastal California Seismic Imaging Project [that's this one) program." * "Geologic observation, seismicity data, and geophysical data all demonstrate that the Hosgri fault zone is a right-lateral strike-slip fault that dips st eeply (75°- 90°) northeast to a depth of Comment [ a4]: It does, however. have slgniflcant evidence of both shortening (where i!'s 12- 14 km in the vicinity of the Oiablo Canyon power plant." strike is more EW than *average") and extension * "evidence for recent fault rupture between the Hosgri and San Simeon fault zones is not well (where it's strike is more NS than "average"). See, imaged in some locations, [although] the data do not preclude the existence of fault linkage at seismogenic depths" rfor example, other conclusion bullets In this document - Chapters 2 and 4. especially, * "Chapter 13 presents a ground-motion hazard sensitivity analysis for the linkage of the Hosgri and San Simeon faults, and a combined rupture of the Hosgri-San Simeon and Shoreline faults" Land. seismic surveys Chapter 7 - Description of the Geologic Mapping Project conducted by PG&E and also reported separately, well data from Honolulu-Tidewater #1, and introduction of natural seismicity, gravity and magnetic data, although the primary data presented in the chapter is 20 accelerated weight-drop (AWD) and a small vibro-seis 30(?) volume of seismic reflection data. Several cross sections are drawn and the Pi smo Syncline is described. The purpose was to evaluate the geometry of the Los Osos, San Miguelito, and San Luis Bay fau lts, as well as illuminate the deeper structure of the Pismo Syncline and the Edna fault system with in the central Irish Hills.
Important conclusions:
* "The Pismo syncline in the central and southern Irish. Hills is the deformed remnant of a Neogene extensional basin."
The basin was bounded on the north by the Edna fault zone(s), fairly large basin bounding normal faults. The southern margi n of the basin (now the southern limb of the Pismo Syncline) was formed by several. smaller north-dipping normal faults, which have been inverted to reverse faults during synclinal folding. Many of these faults are "blind", i.e. are not exposed at the surface and are interpreted from seismic data.
4
Folds are mappable at the surface.

The overall Int erpretation is one of a negative flower structure th at formed during a transtensional phase of slip, and that was later inverted during transpressional slip.

All faults are interpreted as steeply dipping.
Chapter 8 - 3D seismic reflection survey confined to an onshore area around the Diablo Canyon Power Plant about 3 x 5 km ("Phase 1"), and a small shoreline strip southeast of t he power plant about 3 km long by 0.5 km wide including the Rattlesnake fault at the shoreline ("Phase 2" }. Data collected and analyzed by Fugro. Detailed geologic map of the area around the power plant. The goal was to identify structures that might be significant to seismic hazard analysis of the power plant, and provide Input data Comment [aS]: good exposures of the Obispo Fm and Creta<eous sandstone in the tliffs for ground motion modeling at the power plant site. Important conclusions:
* " ... folding in. buried reflector packages consistent with. out -of-syncline parasitic folding that discordantly detached and shortened Obispo volcaniclastic strat a off of st iffer, relatively undeformed diabase bodies... folding event is old and no longer active, and took place during the compressional uplift event that inverted t he ancestral Pismo Basin into the deeply eroded Pismo syncline." * "Despite differences in elevation between t ime-correlated uplifted terraces, the terraces themselves remain horizontal, indicating that the style of late Quaternary deformation of the western Irish Hills is characterized by rigid block uplift with little or no rotation." * ... [in Phase 1 area] "no throughgoing steep. or vertical reflecto r truncations were observed that wou ld indicate the presence of a significant st eep fault offset. ... Any throughgoing faulting in the reflective depth range of 0 to 0.3 km would have to follow shallow to flat unconformities." * [The updated surface mapping! "shows steep, generally north dippi ng Obispo volcaniclastic strata exposed along Discharge Cove. The tomography indicates that these steeply dipping strata are underlain by a shallowly north-dipping diabase intrusive. Future efforts that would consider the construction of a stratigraphic cross section through the Phase 1 area must be very wary of using only the surface dip data, and should honor the nearly flat-lying subsurface velocity structure as well." * " Three lineaments mapped on the bedrock surface beneath the marine terrace sediments in the Phase 2 area merit investigation as potential faults. In order to directly examine the potential fau lt plane, ground-based investigations of the bedrock platform surface and the overlying Quaternary sediments would be required" Chapter 9 - Results of Geologic Mapping Project, int ended t o help interpretation of onshore seismic reflection data. Data presented includes previously published and unpublished geologic maps plus new data collected in this study. There is a section dedicated to the Los Osos fault zone. One conclusion is:
"new mapping in the vicinity of the Edna, Los Osos, San Luis Bay, San M iguelito, and Shoreline fault zones does not introduce any new hard constraint s on fault location, dip, slip direction, or slip rat e". Data presented in this chapter is also used in chapters 7 and 8. 5
Appendices contain daily field reports, photographs, sample cata logue, an Arc GIS catalogue of shapefiles and other information relating to dat a acquisition and geologic mapping in the Irish Hills, and a compi lation of (primarily) stratigraphic data from 18 of 34 wells {26 oil and 8 hydrogeologic). Important conclusions:
* "Edna and San. Miguelita fault zones-minor changes to the geologic units adjacent t o the faults." * "Los Osos fau lt zone - minor changes to the geologic units adj acent to the fau lt zone, and changes to the depiction of the fau lt zone along the northern margin of the Irish Hills (including removal of the concealed, northwest-trending fault across southern Morro Bay)." * "Shoreline fault zone - minor changes to the geologic units and bedrock faults adjacent to the fau lt zone for the reaches opposite Olson Hill and the Oiablo Canyon power plant." * "San Luis Bay fault zone - minor changes to the geology adj acent to the fault zone along the outer coast from Olson Hill to Rattlesnake Creek, and the addition of a generalized, concealed, and locally quer ied trace in San Luis Obispo Bay and on the outer coast between the Rattlesnake fau lt and the Olson Hill deformation zone."
Geotechnical studies Chapter 10 - provides a 30 shear-wave velocity (Vs) model for the Oiablo Canyon power plant fou ndation area-. Both 30 acoustic compressional -wave velocity (Vp) models and one-dimensional Vs* depth profiles constrained by surface-wave dispersion w ere developed w ith in the Diablo Canyon power plant site. Important conclusions:
There is significant spatial variability in V5 ."jf) [shear-wave velocity in the top 30 meters]
throughout the Diablo Canyon power plant site due to variations in near surface geology.
The shear-wave-velocity model is used as input int o the Site Conditions Evaluation report in Chapter 11.
Chapter.11 - Site conditions evaluation as re levant to the modeling of ground motion at the Oiablo Canyon power plant site. Chapt er 12 - Addresses testimony from Dr. Douglas Hamilton concerning two postulated faults: the Diablo Cove and the San Luis Range/Inferred Offshore faults. In addition to using selected data from Hamilton, a variety of other PG&E reports, and published l iterature, this chapter uses data from chapters 2, 4, 7, 8, and 9 in Central Coastal California Seismic Imaging Project (this) report. Comment ( a6]: This Is a pretty Important chapter that pulls together a number of strands lo refute Hamilton's ideas - whether correctly or Important conclusions: Essentially they conclude that the Diablo Cove fault is a non-issue, and that the Incorrectly I know not at this point... San Lu is Range/Inf erred Offshore fault- although not there - will be accounted for in the ir new seismic source characterization [hmmm). 6
"We conclude tha t the Diablo Cove fault does not represent a seismic hazard to the Olablo Canyon power plant, and there is no basis for considering the Oiablo Cove fault as proposed by Hamilton ... to be ei ther a fault displacement hazard or a seismic source of strong ground motions. We make th is conclusion based on the following key points:

Trench and excavation mapping co nducted prior to construction of the Diablo Canyon power plant documented that t he fault zone is discontinuous, is associated with mi nimal offset, and does not displace marine terrace deposits that are 120 ka . Thus, t he faulting where observed directly is minor and inactive. in t he late Pleistocene.

Geologic mapping and interpretation of multibeam echo sounder imagery do not support connecting the Diablo Cove fault offshore to the. Shoreline fault zone.

I here ts no ba sts for.co rrelat ing seism1city w ith the lJtablo Cove fault based on an evaluation of microearthquake locations and consideration. of their location uncertainty.

The short length of t he Diablo Cove fau lt zone - probably less than half a kilometer- is not consistent with a down-dip width of several kilometers that would extend the fau lt to seismogenic depths.

Structural analysis of geologic data and high-resolution 30 land seismic data at the Oiablo Canyon power plant supports an interpretation, shared by the original mappers of the faults, t hat the fau lting is related to shallow fold deformation and shortening that predates the late Quaternary and probably dates to the Miocene or Pliocene. The fau lti ng may or may not be related to a Miocene diabase intrusion imaged directly north of the north-dipping Oiablo Cove fau lt at shallow depths. Based on this interpretation, the fault extends to only a few tens to hundreds of met ers depth."

We conclude that there is no clear evidence in the available data to support the presence of [the San Luis Range/Inferred Offshore thrust fau lt], and there is evidence that precludes its presence.
Accordingly, there is no basis for conside ring the San Luis Range/Inferred Offshore thrust to be a seismic hazard to the Oiablo Canyon power plant as proposed by Hamilton. We make this conclusion based on the following key points:
Analyses. of multibeam echo sounder. bathymetry data and seismic-reflection data do. not support the interpreted uplift rate boundary across the San Luis Range/Inferred Offshore t hrust fault proposed by Hamilton. Instead, interpret ations of the. dat a. are consistent with a very low or negligible change in uplif t rate where the. San. Luis. Range/Inferred Offshore thrust fau lt is interpreted to impinge on the Shoreline f ault zone and where the SLRF is interpreted to diverge from the Shoreline fa ult zone south of Point Buchon. Interpretations of coastal marine terrace data and offshore marine terraces are consistent w ith uplift rate boundaries that i nstead coincide w ith other structures considered by PG&E in pa st seismic hazard analyses.

We disagree w ith the assertion by Or. Hamil ton that the San Luis Range/ Inferred Offshore thrust fault interpretation is required to fit the observed pattern of coastal terrace uplift and in stead suggest t he observed pattern of coastal upli ft may be matched by several proposed fault geometries, i ncluding those proposed by PG&E in past seismic hazard analyses.
7
We disagree with the assertion by Dr. Hamilton that the seismicity data beneath the Irish Hills show a clear alignment supporting the San Luis Range/Inferred Offshore thrust fault at depth.
The seismicity data can be interpreted in different ways to support many different fault models.
Interpretation of land seismic-reflection data do not show evidence for a gently to moderately dipping San Luis Range/Infe rred Offshore thrust fault beneath the southern Irish Hills in the general location proposed by Hamilton. Instead, interpretations of the seismic-reflection data show st eeply north-dipping structures down to approximately 7 km depth or deeper that coincide w ith recognized faults. (the. Irish Canyon and San Luis Bay) at the surface. The interpretation of these steeply dipping structures. to depth. precludes the. presence of the. San Luis Range/Inferred Offshore t hrust fault.

Although the specific San Luis Range/Inferred Offshore thrust fault interpretation by Hamilton is not well supported by the.available. data, and by no means can be held up as a unique or preferred interpretation, the general solution of a primary, north- or north-northeast-dipping fault beneath the Irish Hills is consistent with several observations, and is a possible fault model that should be considered for seismic hazard analysis to the Diablo Canyon power plant. We note that the interpretations by Hamilton are being considered for evaluation and integration with other available data following the Senior Seismic Hazard Ana lysis Committee Level 3 process. The Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee program for the Diablo Canyon power plant, which is bei ng performed under regulatory review by the NRC, is creat ing a new seismic source characterization model.
Chapter 13 - Evaluation of sensitivity of the deterministic ground motions that were presented in the PG&E Shoreline Fault Zone Report (2011) to the seismic source characterizations for the Shoreline and Hosgri fau lts, using new ground motion models developed by the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research (PEER) center as part of their " Next Generation Attenuation" program. Important conclusion:
* "For all the cases considered in this sensitivity study, the 84th percentile ground motions for the power-block and turbine-building foundation levels are bounded by the 1977 Hosgri spectrum."
[In other words, their former analysis is not affected by any of the new data/interpretations.] Chapter 14 - The find ings and conclusions of the Central Coastal California Seismic Imaging Project report [this one). Important conclusion:
* "These studies confirm previous analyses that the plant and its major components are designed to withstand-and perform their safety functions during and after-a major seismic event."
8
Evaluation of the Constraints. for the Hosgri Fault Slip Rate Stress Conditions in the Irish Hills Region: Transpressional with north-northeast orientation of maximum compression Faults in the region with a northwest strike typically have dextral slip Faults in the region with an easterly strike (or perpendicular to maximum compression) typically have a reverse sense of slip Strike-slip faults have a rake of :S30° Reverse and reverse oblique faults have a rake of 90°+/-60° Hosgri Fault Zone: First studied by Wolf and Wagner (1970) and Hoskins and Griffith (1971) .. lt is part of the larger San Gregorio-San Simeon-Hosgri faulc system (410 km long). The Hosgri segment is approximately J 10 km lo ng and was mapped using multichannel seismic-reflection (O&G) data to a depth of l .5-3 km (Willingham et al.,. 2013). Offshore from Diablo Canyon, the. Hosgri was remapped using single-channel, high resolution USGS sparker data (Johnson and Watt, 2012) in order to provide better near-surface resolution of the fau lt trace. At its northern tip the Hosgri is linked to the San S imeon fault across a poor seismically imaged region interpreted to be either (i) a zone of transtensional normal faults in a right-releasing step-over (PG&E, 1988) or (ii) the Hosgri bends westward at this point and steps over the San S imeon fault across a zone of northwest-trendi ng faults to the north (PG&E, 20 14). Fun Facts: Convergent right-lateral (transpressional) fau lt with late Quaternery slip rate of 1-3 mm/year Johnson and Watt (2012) confirmed this sense of motion on the Hosgri in the cunent stress. regime Fault zone is up to 2.5 km wide directly offshore of Diablo Canyon. T he fault trends N25°W to N30°Wand is. locally coincident with the shelf break. Fault dip vaiies from vertical to steeply dipping in the near surface data and in the multi-channel data it dips steeply at a depth of -J km. Focal mechanisms along the Hosgri show nearly pure strike-slip. on a near-vertical. co steeply. east-dipping (-75°) fault at a depth of 12 km (McLaren and Savage, 2001). Constraints on the Hosgri: Deformed mari ne terraces on the San Simeon fault (onshore) are used to constrain the. assessment of horizontal slip on the Hosgri. The Cross-Hosgri slope was identified to estimate the Pleistocene-Holocene slip on rate on the Hosgri. Offset channels in the southern Estero Bay were used to constrain slip rates on the northern end of the Hosgri
Offset channels in southern Point Sal were used to constrain slip rates on the southern end of the Hosgri These constraints have provided an estimate of 2 mm/year of right-lateral slip, which is consistent with regional geodetic data showing - 2 mm/year of plate-margin lateral shear in the region (DeMets et al., 2014). In addition, the slip rate should vary no11h to south (Hanson et al., 2004; Johnson et al. , 2014) depending on the number of fault intersecrions along it<> trace. The northern and middle sections of the Hosgri should have a higher slip rate than tbe southern due to fewer faults intersecring tbe Hosgri as you move south along its trace. San Simeon Fault Slip Rate: The San Simeon projects into the Hosgri and the offset and sl ip rate on that fault are considered represenrarive of the Hosgri. Field mapping of terraces on either side of the San Simeon fault and over 100 boreholes, numerous trenches, and soil pit excavations were used to delineate altitude. and distribution of terrace remnants (Hall et al. , 1994; Hanson and Lettis, 1994). This was performed in order to constrain the style and slip rate of deformation along the onshore San Simeon fault zone. Cross-Hosgri Slope Slip Rate: To be added Estero Bay Slip Rate: Estero Bay contains two dominate strands of the Hosgri Fault zone (Figure 8-24 in 2014 PG&E report). The Hosgri in this area marks the boundary between active tectonics to the cat and minor subsidence to the west. PG&E identified (Chapter 3 in 2014 PG&E report) multiple channel segments in upper continental slope sediments. Of all the channels PG&E identified only the Channel Complex De as a viable strain marker because it seems to conelate across. the. Hosgri to Channel Eel (Figure 8-25 and Plate 3 in Chapter 3 in 2014 PG&E report). Based on these markers, it was estimated that right-lateral separation was 260+/-60 m and vertical separation was 40+/-8 m down to the west. Point Sal Slip Rate: To be added
References:
Demets, C., Marquez-Azua, B., Cabral-Cano, E., 2014. A new GPS velocity field for the Pacific Plate - Part 2: implication for fau lt slip rates in western California. Geophysical Journal Tntrernations 199 (3) 1900-1909. Hanson, K.L., Lenis, W.R., McLaren, M.K., Savage, W.U., and Hall, N.T., 2004. Style and rate of Quaternary deformation of the Hsogri fault zone, offshore south-central California: in Keller, M .A. (editor), Evolution of Sedimentary Basin/Onshore Oil and Gas Investigations-: Santa Maria Province. U.S. Geological Survey Bulletin 1995-BB, 33 pp.
Hoskins, E.G. and Griffiths, J.R., 1971. Hydrocarbon Potential of Northern and Central California Offshore: Region 2: in Cram, 1.H. (editor), Future Petroleum Provinces. of the United States-Their Geology and Potential , Vol. 1, American Association of Petroleum Geologists Memoir 15, pp. 2 12-228. Johnson, S.Y., and Watt, J.T., 2012. Influence of fault trend, bends, and convergence on sbalJow structure and geomorphology of the Hosgri strike-slip fault, offshore central California, Geosphere 8 (6): 1632-1656. Johnson, S.Y., Hartwell, S.R., and Dartnell, P., 2014. Offset of latest Ple istocene shoreface revea slip rate on the Hosgri strike-slip fault, offshore central California, Geospbere 8 (6): 1632-1656. I Willingham, C.R., Rietman, J.D ., Heck, R.G., and Lett.is, W.R., 2013. Characterization of the Hosgri Fault Zone and adjacent structures. in the offshore. Santa Maria Basin, southcentral California: in Keller, M.A. (editor) , Evolution of Sedimentary Basins/Onshore Oil and Gas Investigations-Santa Maria Province, U.S. Geological Survey Bulletin 1995-CC. I 05 pp. Wolf, S.C., and Wagner, H.C., 1970. Preliminary Reconnaissance Marine Geology of Area Between Santa Lucia Escarpment and Point Buchon, California, unpublished U.S. Geological Survey administrative report, 5 pp.
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6.8 m 10 12 7.19310S4 m 70 12 7 20.llOS**l - 100 m 125 60 so 12 12 7.228S606 U811H3 m 125 60 so 12 12 7.23IS60621 7 29ltl?'29J 6.7 - m 125 40 12 7.3580238 l2S 40 12 7.36S()l3761 6.5 ** "' 100 r"""" John Stamatakos From:John Stamatakos Sent:27 Mar 2015 16: 18:39 +0000 To:'Stieve, Alice' Cc:Marla Morales

~~Subject:~~
~~RE: Palo Verde That would be great. Marla.... can you run by and pick up this CD. for me? Its t hfloor of Two White Flint.~~
~~Thanks, John From: Stieve, Alice [25]~~
~~Sent: Friday, March 27, 2015 12: 12 PM To: John Stamatakos~~
~~Subject:~~
~~RE: Palo Verde It is a huge. Several files. Perhaps Jane can make a copy and mail to you. From: John Stamatakos [ mailto:jstam@swri.org] Sent: Friday, March 27, 20 15 12:01 PM To: Stieve, Alice~~
~~Subject:~~
RE: Palo Verde If. I. could get a copy that would be. great . . I. am unfortunately off to San Antonio next week to work with my guys on Diablo so I. am not sure how I would get it ? John From: Stieve, Alice [26] Sent: Friday, March 27, 2015 11:58 AM To: John Stamatakos
~~Subject:~~
FW: Palo Verde John Sorry I forgot you. From: Stieve, Alice Sent: Thursday, March 26, 2015 3:58 PM To: Munson, Clifford; Devlin-Gill, Stephanie; Heeszel, David; Ake, Jon; Graizer, Vladimir; Li, Yong; Hill, Brittain Cc: Spence, Jane
~~Subject:~~
Palo Verde
We have 2 CDs (duplicates) for the Palo Verde SSHAC material. I made a copy and will pass CD1 to Jane Spence. Stephanie has made a copy and will pass onto to David and then to Cliff.
John Stamatakos From:John Stamatakos Sent:20 Apr 20 15 15:56:42 +0000 To:'Stieve, Alice';Devlin-Gill , Stephanie;Heeszel, David Cc:Graizer, Vladimir;Munson, Clifford;Ake, Jon
~~Subject:~~
~~RE: Palo Verde public meeting in mid-June? I can John~~

~~Original Message-----~~

Frorn: Stieve, Alice (mailto:Alice.Stieve @nrc.gov] Sent: Monday, April 20, 2015 11 :17 AM To: Devlin-Gill, Stephanie; Heeszel , David Cc: Graizer. Vladimir; Munson. Clifford; Ake. Jon; John Stamatakos
~~Subject:~~
Palo Verde public meetjng in mid-June? Can the Palo Verde team support a APS public meeting in mid-June? I have no vacation plans yet so l guess l am open in June. What about the rest of you? Of course Vlad is in CA for the week. Maybe he will check his email.

~~Original Messagc-----~~

~~From: Devl in-Gill, Stephanie Sent: Monday, April 20. 20 15 I J :JO AM To: Stieve, Alice; Heeszel, David~~
~~Subject:~~
FW: Inquiry: Palo Verde Public Meetings Dates From: Dif rancesco, Nicholas Sent: Monday, April 20, 2015 10:24 AM To: Munson, Clifford Cc: Jackson, Diane; Ake, Jon; Devlin-Gill, Stephanie; Vega, Frankie
~~Subject:~~
~~Inquiry: Palo Verde Public Meetings Dates Cliff, et. al. Any preferences or limitations for planning the Palo Verde public meeting in mid-June.~~
~~Thanks, Nick From: Difrancesco, Nicholas Sent: Thursday, April 16, 2015 10:07. AM To: Munson, Clifford Cc: Ake,. Jon; Jackson, Diane; Vega, Frankie;. Hill, Brittain; Shams, Mohamed.~~
~~Subject:~~
~~Planning Items.~~
~~DC Focus Areas. and PV Meetings. Dates Cliff.~~
I am out PM today and Friday.
PG&E Licensing Coordination and NRC Public Meeting Prep Frankie is PM backup and has a licensing call with PG&E Friday at lpm to discuss NRC technical focus areas as part of the April 28 public meeting. For Friday I would like to communicate a few topics for them to begin work on. P erhaps the 1. ergodic method vs. single-station correction weighting. Early next week I plan to e mai l a formal request for incorporation into the meeting. notice.. Please let us know a couple. of focus areas by noon Friday. PV Meeting Date Coord ination. The licensee (APS) cannot support meeting until the 2 nd week of June. As. f recall,. I thought we. had conflicts starting then with NGA-East Wo rking Group. Let me. know if I can propose. any. dates. in the. 2nd and 3rd week of June. T hanks, Nick Senior Project Manager - Seismic Reevaluation Activities U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation Japan Lesson Learned Project Division nicholas.difrancesco@ nrc.gov<maillo: nicholas.difrancesco@nrc.gov> I Tel: (301) 415 -1115
John Stamatakos From:John Stamatakos Sent: 18 May 2015 18:50:43. +0000 To:Miriam R. Juckett;'Spence, Jane' Cc:Stieve, Alice
~~Subject:~~
~~RE: PV material Yes Thanks John From: Miriam R. Juckett Sent: Monday, May 18, 2015 2:39 PM To: 'Spence, Jane'; John Stamatakos Cc: Stieve, Alice~~
~~Subject:~~
RE: PV material Thanks Jane- I think John was planning to come by to pick it up but he was out sick this week. John, will you be able to pick it up maybe tomorrow? Cheers-Miriam From: Spence, Jane [mailto:Jane.Spence@nrc.gov) Sent: Monday, May 18, 2015 1:38 PM To: John Stamatakos; Miriam R. Juckett Cc: Stieve, Alice
~~Subject:~~
RE: PV material CD is still. here... do. you want me. to mail it ? Jane Spence Administrative Assistant Office of New Reactors NRO/DSEA/RGS1 ft RGS2 (301) 415-4717 T-7F01B From: Spence, Jane Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2015 12:37 PM To: John Stamatakos; Miriam Juckett (mjuckett@swri.org) Cc: Stieve, Alice
~~Subject:~~
PV material Hi all, CD is ready.
Please let me know when you'd like me to meet you to pick up the CD. Thanks! Jane Spence. Administrative Assistant Office of New Reactors NRO/DSEA/RGS1 ft RGS2 (301) 415-4717 T*7F01B From: Spence, Jane Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2015 9:36 AM To: Stieve, Alice Cc: John Stamatakos
~~Subject:~~
RE: PV material Will do when I return - John, I'll let you know when ready for p/u. Jane Spence Administrative Assistant Office of New Reactors NRO/DSEA/RGS1 &. RGS2 (301) 415-4717 T-7F01B From: Stieve, Alice Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2015 9:27 AM To: Spence, Jane
~~Subject:~~
PV material Jane Could you make a CD of all the files in the Palo Verde folder for John Stamatkos? He said he would drop by today or tomorrow. I told him you were out this morning and to wait until this afternoon. Let me and John know if you can accommodate that request. http://epm.nrc.gov/environmental/jlltg/wus-sshac/Shared%20Documents/Forms/Allltems.aspx
Latitude: 33.37800 Longitude: -11 2.86400 Information (pages 28-34/800) is w ithin scope of FOIA and shou ld be released . M
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~~I .Set Location l r Hazard Curves 11 UHRS I AFE vs. Site Cl.ass I Data Access ]I Help & Info ~ l at.i'tlrde: 29.46S75 l ongi.tude: -98.i62169~~
~~- BCPGA t~~
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te-3 le~ l e~ 1e* 1e 1 Ground Motion (g) UHS 10e-4 10 (Hz) o----o APS (2015) 0----0 USGS (2008) 0.01
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USGS Palo Verde PV Freq (Hz) A (g) Freq (Hz) A (g) 100 0.1267 100 0.17 10 0.271 20 0.207 5 0.3147 10 0.275 3 0.2483 5 0.371 2 0.1626 2.5 0.297 1 0.0789 1 0.226 0.5 0.0338 0.5 0.061
Alan Mon-is From:Alan Morris. Sent:28 May 2015 19:08:23 +0000 To:Ronald McGinnis;Kevin Smart;David Ferrill;Sarah Wigginton
~~Subject:~~
Oiablo Canyon IMHO For what it's worth: As far as I can tell from the reports and presentations available to us, the Central Coastal California Seismic Imaging Project from Pacific Gas & Electric seems fine, that is: (1) I think they characterized the kinematics of the area/region accurately (2) The fault model choices seem logical, although not very broad in scope (3) Without working through a complete example with t he data, it seems that their slip rates and fault kinematic models are reasonable and therefore ... (4) The hazard conclusions are probably also reasonable Another caveat: There are clearly normal faults along parts of the Hosgri fault zone and it is not obvious how they have been incorporated into the kinematic model(s). With respect to displacement on the Hosgri fault zone as measured by displaced channels, I feel the need to work through this from data to hazard curve. The relevant data seems to be the 2D/3D low-energy seismic surveying (LESS) discussed in chapt er 3 of the Central Coastal California Seismic Imaging Project report. I think the data were collected by Fugro in 2011 - 2012, we probably don't want the raw data, but the final cut together with their interpretations in seg-y form for import into both Petrel and Move. Another dataset t hat would be nice is the USGS (Jeanne Hardebeck's) re-calculated hypocenter data, she sent us the older set a while back, but I think she has both new events and a newly calculated set of hypocenters. There may be other things but that's my $0.02. Alan Alan Morris. Departmenr of Earth. Material, and Planetary Sciences Geosciences and Engineering Division Southwest Research institute 6220 Culebra Road, San Antonfo, TX 78238, USA Tel: 210.522.6743 Fax: 2 10.522.5155 Web page: hnp://www.swri.org/4org/d20/geosci/structur.hun http://3dstress.swri.org/
John Stamatakos From:John Stamatakos Sent:27 Mar 2015 20:00:44 +0000 To:Ronald McGinnis;David Ferrill ;Amy Minor;Kevin Smart Cc:Miriam R. Juckett
~~Subject:~~
~~Diablo Canyon Review I've place most of my Diablo Canyon files on the DEMPS server (Demps\regios). There are a series of reports that Pacific Gas & Electric (POG&E) produced over the last few years.~~
1. Shoreline and RIL: The Shoreline report was submitted by PG&E in 2011 and we (with NRC review. if in. 2012). The Regulatory Information. Letter (RIL 12-01) is that review. This. report and review. focused on the Shoreline fault and potential implications to the Licensing Basis for the plant. But the reports offer some good general background information. Other files in this folder are related to the Shoreline Report and the RIL.

2. DCPP Shoreline and Thrust Faylt Al!egatjon: In add jt jo1 to the Shoreline Report, NRC had us look at an allegation made b~(bJC l 5
~~_about other possible faults and the plant. Alan helped me on one of the allegations (possible blind thrust beneath the plant site).~~
3. Central Coastal California Seismic Imaging Project: The California state legislature passed a bill after the Shoreline Report authorizing PG&E t o collect boat load of new seismic imaging data. This report is essentially a data dump of that work, and it has the bulk of what I would like you all to look at.

4. LTSP: Th is is an old PG&E report (1991) that may also be useful as background.

5. NTIF DCCP PSHA Review: This is the actual new seismic hazard study that we are reviewing. We will need to cross reference the conclusions about faults (do they exist, t heir geometry, slip rate, length and area, etc.) based on seismic imaging to the data in the CCCSIP report.

6. Diablo Canyon ISFSR SER : This was our review of the site back in early 2000's for the Independent Spent Fuel Storage Installation (ISFSI). May be useful as background information.

7. Figure: is a folder I use to put in various figures and some of my Diablo Presentations and related images.
For reference: http://www.pge.com/en/safety/systemworks/dcpp/seismicsafety/index.page This link gets you to most of these reports on line. Work Scope: I have five progressive tasks in mind. 1.. Look through the CCCSIP documents and develop a summary (catalog) of all the seismic imaging data that's there. Identify the who, what and where and assess its quality and possible usefulness to the PSHA. I think we can do this relatively quickly. We can even bring on a temp/student if available and willing to work on this. NRC wants to be able to say that they are fami liar with all the data and have looked it over as part of the review. I would like to have a very quick deliverable on this (couple of pages?) relatively soon.
2. Identify which data in the CCCSIP report is actually relied on to develop conclusions in the new PSHA. Assess the validity of the structural/seismic interpretations from the quality of the seismic imaging data. This may take a bit longer than task 1, but I hope we can do this relatively quickly.

3. Identify potential faults in the data sets that may have been overlooked by the PSHA technical team. I am not suggesting we identify any vague targets, but if you see images that in your view (and based on your experience) are very likely significant faults, we should tag them and assess their potential to influence t he seismic hazard at the site.

4. For those critical data sets identified in task 2, complete a technical review of the data and the interpretations. This will be included in our write up for the overall PSHA assessment.

5. Review the 3D data collected in t he Irish Hills to reassess the blind thrust fault model {I think it is now referred to as the San Luis Range Th rust).
~~I'll walk you all through this again next week and provide some more background on the PSHA and how we can assess whether fault sources can be important to the PSHA next week.~~
~~Thanks, John Dr. John Stamatakos Director of Technical Programs Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses (CNWRA)~~
Southwest Research Institute 1801 Rockville Pike, Rockville, MD 20852 301-881-0290 jstamatakos@swri.org
John Stamatakos From:John Stamatakos. Sent: 12 May 201520:1 1: 18 +0000 To:Debashis Basu;Kaushik Das
~~Subject:~~
Oiablo Matlab work OK, I put everything in S:\John Stamatakos\Diablo Files It includes chapter 8 from the PG&E report, all the figures that uses these PDFs and CDFs in the analysis, the email from George and Osvaldo helping with the formula, and my Excel Spread sheet. The question is, can we code up MATLAB to make these distribution? Thanks John Dr. John Stamatakos Director of Technical Programs Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses (CNWRA) Southwest Research Institute 1801 Rockville Pike, Rockville, MD 20852 301-881-0290 jstamatakos@swri.org
John Stamatakos From:John Stamatakos. Sent:29 Apr 2015 19:45:20 +0000 To:Giacinto, Joseph (Joseph.Giacinto@nrc.gov);Plaza-Toledo, Meralis (Meralis.Plaza-T oledo@nrc.gov)
~~Subject:~~
~~Diablo SSC I had a good call with the San Antonio folk. I can meet after the Columbia meeting to talk through some of the early observations.~~
~~Thanks, John Dr. John Stamatakos Director of Technical Programs Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses (CNWRA)~~
Southwest Research Institute 1801 Rockville Pike, Rockville, MD 20852 301-881-0290 jstamatakos@swri.org
Informal review ofThe Central Coastal California Seismic Imaging Project (CCCSIP) report (Pacific Gas and Electric Company) By GED April 2015 The Central Coastal California Seismic Imaging Project (CCCSIP) report was produced by the Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) in response to a 2008 recommendation by the California Energy Commission (CEC). The California Energy Commission's 2008 report "An Assessment of California's Nuclear Power Plants: AB 1632 Report", also known as the "AB 1632 Report", recommended that Pacific Gas. and Electric perform a series of geophysical investigations to explore fault zones. near the. Diablo. Canyon Power Plant (DCPP). A primary goal of the investigations was to improve understanding of the seismic risk to the Diablo Canyon Power Plant, specifically:
Hosgri Fault Zone slip rate

Hosgri Fault Zone dip

Hosgri-San. Simeon fault zone step-over (i.e., are these faults. linked so that will rupture. in unison?)

Los Osos fault zone slip rate

Los Osos fault zone dip

Los Osos fault zone sense of slip

Hosgri-Shoreline fault zone rupture (i .e., are these faults linked so that will rupture in unison?)

Shoreline fault zone slip rate

Shoreline fault zone southern extent

Shoreline fault zone segmentation These issues were chosen because of their importance in choosing seismic source parameters used to model the seismic hazard for the Diablo Canyon Power Plant, and because of the uncertainty associated with them. Hazard is expressed as probability of ground motion acceleration exceeding 2 g at the key frequency of 5 hertz.
Three areas of study were. specifically prescribed by the AB1632 report: (1) PG&E should use three-dimensional geophysical seismic reflection mapping and other advanced techniques to explore fault zones near Diablo Canyon. (2) As ground motion models are refined to account for a greater understanding of the motion near an earthquake rupture, it will be important for PG&E to consider whether the models indicate larger than expected seismic hazards at Diablo Canyon and if so, whether the plant was built with. sufficient design margins to continue. operating reliably after experiencing t hese large ground motions. 1
(3) PG&E should assess the implications of a San Simeon-type earthquake beneath Oiablo Canyon. This assessment should include expected ground motions and vulnerability assessments for safety-related and non-safety related plant systems and components that might be sensitive to long period motions in the near field of an earthquake rupture. A range of data is presented and analyzed in the Central Coastal California Seismic Imaging Project report, most of it collected between 2009 and 2014, but including and drawing upon a variety of work performed over the previous 30 years. Work incorporated in the report was performed by PG&E, its contractors, and by. the United States Geological Survey. The report is organized into the following sections: Marine seismic reflection surveys (including analysis of natural seismicity data) Chapters 2 and 4- 20/30 low-energy seismic surveying (LESS) to map the Hosgri, Shoreline and Point Buchon fault zones and associated folding west, northwest and north of Oiablo Canyon Power Plant. Chapter 4 includes older, deep-penetration seismic data to investigate linkage between Hosgri and San Simeon fault zones and folding offshore and south of the Los Osos fault zone. Important conclusions, chapter 2:
* "The main structural elements mapped in the study area are the Hosgri fault zone (HFZ), the Point Buchon fault zone, and a prominent syncline that deforms Tertiary strata in the southern two thirds of the study area." * "The Hosgri fault zone consists of numerous fault strands and is the best imaged and most continuous and complex fault zone in the region." * " ... the local style of faulting changes along strike of the Hosgri fault zone. Graben A, bounded by right-stepping strands of the Hosgri fault zone in the north, indicates extensiona l strike slip faulting. A single fault strand characterizes the fault zone in the center of the study area.
~~Numerous, relatively short strands fan out to the southeast and are associated with folds in the south, indicating compressional strike-slip faulting."~~
* "The Point Buchon fault zone, northwest of the central. segment of the Shoreline fault zone, is a northwest-trending fault that disrupts Tertiary strata east of the HFZ" * " ... the Point Buchon fault zone may connect to the central segment of the Shoreline fault zone and associated structures" * " Graben B is associated with the northern end of the Point Buchon fault zone" * " ...t he structural relationship between the two grabens [A and BJ and structures within Estero Bay to the north of the study area needs to be f urther evaluated"
Because "the 30/20 data are restricted to the shallow subsurface, the mapped surficial faults cannot be confidently extended to the earthquake hypocentral depths. Therefore, no conclusion can be. made. in regard t o these faults being the source. of the earthquakes that constitute. the northern Shoreline seismicity sublineament" 2
~~Important conclusions, chapter 4:~~
* " ... we were unable to observe any clear evidence in the seismic-reflection data for a recent fault connecting the San Simeon fault zone with the Hosgri fault zone. Our interpretations do not preclude the existence of a fault at depth or the possibility of a future rupture along this fault at depth, including propagation to the surface." * " ... we map the newly named Half Graben fault zone, a series of fau lts along which a half graben has formed, down-dropped on t he east and. tilted to the west ... The half graben is narrow in. the north ... To the south, the half graben widens considerably and appears to end near ... the Los Osos fault zone" Chapter 3- 2D/3D low-energy seismic surveying (LESS) to identify the southern extent , geometry, connectivity, and slip rate of the Shoreline fault, and the slip rate on the Hosgri fault zone. Older deep penetration data are also used.
~~Important conclusions:~~
* "Piercing points identified for constraining offsets along the Shoreline, Oceano, and Hosgri fault zones were identified ... buried paleochannels and paleoshorelines (paleostrandlines) were the best geomorphic features to use in evaluating offsets." * "These studies reveal a more complex [Hosgri] fault zone than had previously been mapped". * " ... strands of the Hosgri fault zone [in the Estero Bay area) are generally steeply dipping to vertical. .." * " ... sense of vertical separation across the Hosgri fault zone [in the Estero Bay area] is dominantly down to the west ..." * "Channel offsets and their interpreted ages yield a preferred lateral slip rate for the Hosgri fault zone in Estero Bay of approximately 1.6 +/- 0.8 mm/yr within a high (90%) confidence interval.
~~Accounting for uncertainties in ages and offset estimates, the range in lateral slip rate is between approximately 0.2 mm/yr and. 3.6 mm/yr."~~
* [In the Point Sal Area] "The. new mapping ... shows that from south to north, the Hosgri fault zone splits from a single strand with little or no vertical separation to multiple splays with substantial vertical and dextral shear, which converge to form a single strand once more.... with transtension in the south and transpression in the north. There is an approximate 6-degree change in the strike of the Hosgri fault zone ... " * "Channel Complex F provides the. preferred piercing points for estimating slip rates on the Hosgri fault zone in the Point Sal area." * "a minimum estimated slip rate of 0.39 mm/yr (1.4 Ma at 550 m minimum offset) and a maximum estimated slip rate of 5.07 mm/yr (138 ka at 700 m maximum offset) is calculated for the Hosgri fault zone at Point Sal" Chapter 5 - Deployment and monitoring of ocean bottom seismographs (OBS)
~~Important conclusions: 3.~~
* "offshore events close to but outside the ocean bottom seismographs stations will have improved depth control; however, these events are still subject to uncertainty, particularly with regard to the focal mechanisms."
Chapter 6 - Characterization of the Hosgri fault zone using primarily post 1988 seismic reflection data but also some gravity and magnetic surveys. A 3D high-energy seismic survey (HESS) was proposed by PG&E, however, the California Coastal Commission denied PG&E's application due to concerns about the environmental impact of these studies. Important conclusions:
* "Earlier models ... that identified the Hosgri fault zone as a major thrust fault underlying the Coast Ranges are not supported by the (older) high-energy marine 20 seismic-reflection data acquired during the Long Term Seismic. Program (LTSP); nor are they supported by potential field and seismicity data collected during the Long Term Seismic Program Update and Central Coastal California Seismic Imaging Project (that's this one] program." * "Geologic observation, seismicity data, and geophysical data all demonstrate that the Hosgri fault zone is a right-lateral strike-slip fault that dips steeply (75°- 90°) northeast to a depth of 12-14 km in the vicinity of the Diablo Canyon power plant." * "evidence for recent fault rupture between the Hosgri and San Simeon fault zones is not well imaged in some locations, [although] the data do not preclude the existence of fault linkage at seismogenic depths" * "Chapter 13 presents a ground-motion hazard sensitivity analysis. for the linkage of the Hosgri and San Simeon faults, and a combined rupture of the Hosgri-San Simeon and Shoreline faults" Land seismic surveys Chapter 7 - Description of the Geologic Mapping Project conducted by PG&E and also reported separately, well data from Honolulu-Tidewater #1, and introduction of natural seismicity, gravity and magnetic data, although the primary data presented in the chapter is 20 accelerated weight-drop (AWD) and a small vibro-seis 30(?) volume of seismic reflection data. Several cross sections are drawn and the Pismo Syncline is described. The purpose was. to evaluate the geometry of the Los Osos,. San Miguelita, and San Luis Bay faults, as. well as illuminate the deeper structure of the Pisma. Syncline and the Edna.
~~fault system within the central Irish Hills. Important conclusions:~~
* "The Pismo syncline in the central and southern Irish Hills is the deformed remnant of a Neogene extensional basin."
The basin was bounded on the north by the Edna fault zone(s), fairly large basin bounding normal faults. The southern margin of the basin (now the southern limb of the Pismo Syncline) was formed by several smaller north-dipping normal faults, which have been inverted to reverse faults during synclinal folding. Many of these faults are "blind", i.e. are not exposed at the surface and are interpreted from seismic data.
4
Folds are mappable at the surface.

The overall interpretation is one of a negative flower structure that formed during a transtensional phase of slip, and that was later inverted during transpressional slip.

All faults are interpreted as steeply dipping.
Chapter 8- 3D seismic reflection survey confined to an onshore area around the Diablo Canyon Power Plant about 3 x S km ("Phase 1"), and a small shoreline strip southeast of the power plant about 3 km long by 0.5 km wide including the Rattlesnake fault at the shoreline ("Phase 2"). Data collected and analyzed by Fugro. Detailed geologic map of the area around the power plant. The goal was to identify structures that might be significant to seismic hazard analysis of the power plant, and provide input data for ground motion modeling at the power plant site. Important conclusions:
*. " ... folding in buried reflector packages consistent with out-of-syncline parasitic folding that discordantly detached and shortened Obispo volcaniclastic strata off of stiffer, relatively undeformed diabase bodies... folding event is old and no longer active, and took place during the compressional uplift event that inverted the ancestral Pismo Basin into the deeply eroded Pismo syncline." *. " Despite differences in elevation between time-correlated uplifted terraces, the terraces themselves remain horizontal, indicating that the style of late Quaternary deformation of the western Irish Hills is characterized by rigid block uplift with little or no rotation." * ... [in Phase 1 area] "no throughgoing steep or vertical reflector truncations were observed that would indicate the presence of a significant steep fault offset. ... Any throughgoing faulting in the reflective depth range of 0 to 0.3 km would have to follow shallow to flat unconformities." * [The updated surface mapping] "shows steep, generally north dipping Obispo volcaniclastic strata exposed along Discharge Cove. The tomography indicates that these steeply dipping strata are underlain by a shallowly north-dipping diabase intrusive. Future efforts that would consider the construction of a stratigraphic cross section through the Phase 1 area must be very wary of using only the surface dip data, and should honor the nearly flat-lying subsurface velocity structure as well." * "Three lineaments mapped on the bedrock surface beneath the marine terrace sediments in the Phase 2 area merit investigation as potential faults. In order to directly examine the potential fault plane, ground-based investigations of the bedrock platform surface and the overlying Quaternary sediments would be required" Chapter 9 - Results of Geologic Mapping Project, intended to help interpretation of onshore seismic reflection data . Data presented includes previously published and unpublished geologic maps plus new data collected in this study. There is a section dedicated to the Los Osos fault zone. One conclusion is:
"new mapping in the vicinity of the Edna, Los Osos, San Luis Bay, San Miguelito, and Shoreline fault zones does not introduce any new hard constraints on fault location, dip, slip direction, or slip rate". Data presented in this chapter is also used in chapters 7 and 8. s
Appendices contain daily field reports, photographs, sample catalogue, an Arc GIS catalogue of shapefiles and other information relating to data acquisition and geologic mapping in the Irish Hills, and a compilation of (primarily) stratigraphic data from 18 of 34 wells (26 oil and 8 hydrogeologic). Important conclusions:
* "Edna and San Miguelito fault zones - minor changes to the geologic units adjacent to the faults." * " Los Osos fault zone-minor changes to the geologic units adjacent to the fault zone, and changes to the depiction of the fault zone along the northern margin of the Irish Hills (including removal of the concealed, northwest-trending fault across southern Morro. Bay)." * "Shoreline fault zone-minor changes to the geologic units and bedrock faults adjacent to the fault zone for the reaches opposite Olson Hill and the Diablo Canyon power plant." * "San Luis Bay fault zone-minor changes to the geology adjacent to the fault zone along the outer coast from Olson Hill to Rattlesnake Creek, and the addition of a generalized, concealed, and locally queried trace in San Luis Obispo Bay and on the outer coast between the Rattlesnake fault and the Olson Hill deformation zone."
Geotechnical studies Chapter 10 - provides a 30 shear-wave velocity (V5 ) model for the Diablo Canyon power plant foundation area. Both 30 acoustic compressional-wave velocity (Vp) models and one-dimensional V5-depth profiles constrained by surface-wave dispersion were developed within the Oiablo Canyon power plant site. Important conclusions:
~~There is significant spatial variability in V5*30 [shear-wave velocity in the top 30 meters]~~
~~throughout the Oiablo Canyon power plant site due to variations in near surface geology.~~
~~The shear-wave-velocity model is used as input into the Site Conditions Evaluation report in Chapter 11.~~
Chapter 11 - Site conditions evaluation as relevant to the modeling of ground motion at the Diablo Canyon power plant site. Chapter 12 -Addresses testimony from Dr. Douglas Hamilton concerning two postulated faults: the Oiablo Cove and the San Luis Range/Inferred Offshore faults. In addition to using selected data from Hamilton, a variety of other PG&E reports, and published literature, this chapter uses data from chapters 2, 4, 7, 8, and 9 in Central Coastal California Seismic Imaging Project (th is) report. Important conclusions: Essentially they conclude that the Oiablo Cove fault is a non-issue, and that the San Luis Range/Inferred Offshore fault - although not there - will be accounted for in their new seismic source characterization [hmmm]. 6
"We conclude that the Diablo Cove fault does not represent a seismic hazard to the Diablo Canyon power plant, and there is no basis for considering the Diablo Cove fault as proposed by Hamilton ... to be either a fault displacement hazard or a seismic source of strong ground motions. We make this conclusion based on the following key points:

Trench and excavation mapping conducted prior to construction of the Diablo Canyon power plant documented that the fault zone is discont inuous, is associated with minimal offset, and does not displace marine terrace deposits that are 120 ka. Thus, the faulting where observed directly is minor and inactive in the late Pleistocene.

Geologic mapping and int erpretation of multibeam echo sounder imagery do not support connecting the Diablo Cove fault offshore to the Shoreline fault zone.

There is no basis for correlating seismicity with the Diablo Cove fault based on an evaluation of microearthquake locations and considerat ion of their location uncertainty.

The short length of the Diablo Cove fault zone-probably less than half a kilometer-is not consistent with a down-dip width of several kilometers that would extend the fault to seismogenic depths.

Structural analysis of geologic data and high-resolution 30 land seismic data at the Diablo Canyon power plant supports an interpretation, shared by the original mappers of the faults, that the faulting is related to shallow fold deformation and shortening that predates t he late Quaternary and probably dates to the Miocene or Pliocene. The faulting may or may not be related to a M iocene diabase intrusion imaged directly north of the north-dipping Diablo Cove fault at shallow depths. Based on this interpretation, the fault extends to only a few tens to hundreds of meters depth."

We conclude that there is no clear evidence in the available data to support the presence of [the San Luis Range/Inferred Offshore thrust fault], and there is evidence that precludes its presence.
Accordingly, there is no basis for considering the San Luis Range/Inferred Offshore thrust to be a seismic hazard to the Diablo Canyon power plant as proposed by Hamilton. We make this conclusion based on the following key points:
Analyses of multibeam echo sounder bathymetry data and seismic-reflection data do not support the interpreted uplift rate boundary across the San Luis Range/Inferred Offshore thrust fault proposed by Hamilton. Instead, interpretations of the data are consistent with a very low or negligible change in uplift rate where the San Luis Range/Inferred Offshore thrust fault is interpreted to impinge on the Shoreline fault zone and where the SLRF is interpreted to diverge from the Shoreline fault zone south of Point Buchon. Interpretations of coastal marine terrace data and offshore marine terraces are consistent with uplift rate boundaries that instead coincide with other structures considered by PG&E in past seismic hazard analyses.

We disagree with the assertion by Dr. Hamilton that the San Luis Range/Inf erred Offshore thrust fault interpretation is required to fit the observed pattern of coastal t errace uplift and instead suggest the observed pattern of coastal uplift may be matched by several proposed fault geometries, including those proposed by PG&E in past seismic hazard analyses.
7
~~We disagree with the assertion by Dr. Hamilton that the seismicity data beneath the Irish Hills show a clear alignment supporting the San Luis Range/Inferred Offshore thrust fault at depth.~~
~~The seismicity data can be interpreted in different ways to support many different fault models.~~
Interpretation of land seismic-reflection data do not show evidence for a gently to moderately dipping San Luis Range/Inferred Offshore thrust fault beneath the southern Irish Hills in the general location proposed by Hamilton. Instead, interpretations of t he seismic-reflection data show steeply north-dipping structures down to approximately 7 km depth or deeper that coincide with recognized faults (the Irish Canyon and San Luis Bay) at the surface. The interpretation of. these steeply dipping structures to depth precludes the presence of the San Luis Range/Inferred Offshore thrust fau lt.

Although the specific San Luis Range/Inferred Offshore t hrust fault interpretation by Hamilton is not well supported by the available data, and by no means can be held up as a unique or preferred Interpretation, the genera l solution of a primary, north- or north-northeast-dipping fault beneath the Irish Hills is consistent with several observations, and is a possible fau lt model that should be considered for seismic hazard analysis to the Diablo Canyon power plant. We note that the interpretations by Hamilton are being considered for evaluation and integration with other available data following the Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee Level 3 process. The Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee program for the Diablo Canyon power plant, which is being performed under regulatory review by the NRC, is. creating a new seismic source characterization model.
Chapter 13 - Evaluation of sensitivity of the deterministic ground motions that were presented in the PG&E Shoreline Fault Zone Report (2011} to the seismic source characterizations for the Shoreline and Hosgri faults, using new ground motion models developed by the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research (PEER) center as part of their " Next Generation Attenuation" program. Important conclusion:
* "For al l t he cases considered in t his sensitivity st udy, t he. 84t h percentile ground motions for the power-block and turbine-building foundation levels are bounded by the 1977 Hosgri spectrum."
[In other words, their former analysis is not affected by any of the new data/interpretations.] Chapter 14 - The findings and conclusions of the Central Coastal California Seismic Imaging Project report [this one] . Important conclusion:
* "These studies confirm previous analyses that the plant and its major components are designed to withstand-and perform their safety. functions. during and aft er-a major seismic event."
8
John Stamatakos From:John Stamatakos Sent:13 Apr2015 15:00:17 +0000 To:Miriam R. Juckett
~~Subject:~~
OiabloCanyonPowerPlant - seismic ri sk data survey April 2015 Attachments:DiabloCanyonPowerPlant - seismic risk data smvey April 2015.docx Can you look this over quickly? I want to hand out at today's meeting.
Sarah Wigginton From:Sarah Wigginton Sent:8 Apr 2015 19:21:56-0500 To :Ronald McGinnis;David Ferri ll Cc:Alan Morris
~~Subject:~~
~~Document C atal ogue~~
~~All, Here is a link to the completed portion of the Document Catalogue for Diablo Canyon.~~
Z:\ Diablo Canyon\Diablo Canyon\Document Catalog COMPLETE.xlsx I have about 300 more pages to go in t he very last PDF, but I'll be doing that work in a separate excel file (\\REGIOS\Demps\Diablo Canyon\Diablo Canyon\Document Catalogue IN PROGRESS.xlsx) so it won't interfere with any work you all do on t he completed portion .
~~Best, Sarah Sarah Wigginton Department of Earth,. Material, and Planetary. Sciences Geosciences and Engineering. Division Southwest Research fnstitute 6220 Culcbra Road, San Antonio, TX 78238, USA~~
~~Osvaldo Pensado From:Osvaldo Pensado Sent:30 Apr 2015 18:22:54 -0500 To:John Stamatakos~~
~~Subject:~~
Function for excel Okay John. What is the charge number? Doing your problem in Mathematica is quite simple. In Excel ... not so much. I give you instructions to get the trapezoidal function in Excel. For the trapezoidal function for the offset: a=15 b=26. c=35 d=43. pis a random number uniformly sampled between 0 an 1. . It can be. sampled with Excel using p=Rand(). Apply it to randomly sampled values of p=Rand() in Excel. The formula is a big sausage with nested if-then statements. At least it is a closed formula . There is a high chance to make a typographical error, though. You should consider programming the formula in a macro. trapezCDFinv[p_, a_. b_, c_. d_] := If[O $ p & p b-a
~~< b d , a+,./ a 2 p - b 2 p - acp + bcp - adp + bdp, -a- + c +~~
~~b- a a+ b - 2c 1 Elself[ b d$p&p< b d,- (a + b -ap - bp+cp+dp),~~
~~-a - + c + a+ - c- 2 a+ b - 2c Elself[ b d s p &p a+ - c - $ 1. d - ,j~a_~~
~~c _+_b_ c ___c_ 2 -_- a_d___b_d_+_d_2__ ad_p_+_b_d_p___d_2_p]]]~~
~~- a-cp___b_c_p_+_c_2_p_+_~~
This is the plot of the trapezCDFinv function
40 35 'E i"30 £ 0 25 20 15 00 02 04 06 08 10 Cumulative Probablhty I derived the formula from the following trapezoid: 0 05 0 04 ~ ii 11> 0 03 .D
~~~ 0 02 a.~~
~~0.01 10 20 30 40 50 This is. the CDF: parabola segment, followed by a straight line, ending in another. pa rabola segment. 1.0 gOB .a ~ 06 0 a. E o4~~
~~J u 02 00 0 10 20 30 40 Offset [m I I felt like programming the formula in Excel for you, but I changed my m ind when I saw the sausage.~~
can do the Monte Carlo in no time in Mathematica. I do not feel like touching the sausage. For a Triangular function the formula to use is
cdffrianglnv[p_, a_, b_, c_]: = If[p
~~~ (b- a)/(c- a) ,a+ Sqrt[(b- a)* (c- a)* p],c- Sqrt[(c- a) * (c -b) * (1 - p)]];~~
aga in, p=Rand() To give you an idea on how simple the problem is in Mathematica, this would be the Latin hypercube sampling program (which will be better than random sampling you will do in Excel): s huffle[datos_] : =Module[{piv l , piv2={} , indl},pivl=datos ; While[Length[pivl]>O,indl=Random[Integer,{l,Lengt h [pi vl] } ] ; AppendTo[piv2 , pivlindl] ; pivl=Drop[pivl , {indl , indl}] ; ] ; Return[piv2 ]] ; pvec=shuffle[Table[i , {i , 0 , 1 , 1 . 0 / 5000}]] ; agel=cdfTrianginv(# , 11 . 5 , 12 , 12 . 5]& /@ pvec ; pvec=shuffle[pvec] ; offsetl=trapezCDFinv(# , 15 , 26 , 35 , 43]& /@ pvec ; dl=Emp i ri c a lDis tribution [offset l/ agel ] ; And the slip rate is Plot[CDF[d1,x], {x, 0,4}, Frame~ True, BaseStyle ~ 14, GridLines ~Au tomatic, FrameLabel
~~~ {"Slip Rate [mm/yr]", "Cumulative Probability"}]~~
10 1 2 3 4 Slip Rate [m~/yr] Dr. Osvaldo Pensado
Group Manager, Risk Analysis. and Performance Assessment Geosciences and Engineering Division (210) 522-6084 opensado@swri.org
Sent:29 Apr 20 15 16:07: 18 +0000 To: Violeta Gonzales
~~Subject:~~
~~FW: Diablo Canyon Are you familiar with the bridge line procedure for phone calls? From: John Stamatakos Sent: Wednesday, April 29, 2015 11:06. AM To:. Ronald McGinnis.~~
~~Subject:~~
~~RE: Diablo canyon We have one we use for management meetings .. ask Violet. From: Ronald McGinnis Sent: Wednesday, April 29, 2015 12:05 PM To:. John Stamatakos~~
~~Subject:~~
~~RE: Diablo canyon. I have no idea. Never used one. I will ask. From: John Stamatakos Sent: Wednesday, April 29, 2015 11 :04 AM To: Ronald McGinnis~~
~~Subject:~~
~~RE: Diablo canyon Ronnie, do we have a bridge line we can use? John From: Ronald McGinnis Sent: Wednesday, April 29, 2015 10:37 AM To: John Stamatakos~~
~~Subject:~~
~~RE: Diablo canyon Sounds good. From: John Stamatakos.. Sent: Wednesday, April 29, 2015 9:35 AM To: Ronald McGinnis~~
~~Subject:~~
~~RE: Diablo canyon Office ... or we may use a bridge if I want to bring in NRC. From: Ronald McGinnis Sent: Wednesday, April 29, 2015 10:33 AM To: John Stamatakos~~
~~Subject:~~
RE: Diablo canyon
We will call you. Office or cell? From : John Stamatakos Sent: Wednesday, April 29, 2015 9: 16 AM To: Ronald McGinnis
~~Subject:~~
~~RE: Diablo Canyon OK From: Ronald McGinnis Sent: Wednesday, April 29, 2015 10:00 AM To: John Stamatakos~~
~~Subject:~~
~~RE: Diablo Canyon John, . How about 2:00 our time? -Ronny From: Ronald McGinnis Sent: Tuesday, April 28, 2015 1:55 PM To: John Stamatakos~~
~~Subject:~~
~~RE: Diablo Canyon Should work. I will get a time and let you know. From: John Stamatakos Sent: Tuesday, April 28, 2015 1:53 PM To: Ronald McGinnis~~
~~Subject:~~
RE: Diablo Canyon I am in a Diablo meeting right now. We should have a cal l tomorrow. I'll have to look at my schedule but could you ask your folks so we can set up a good time? John From: Ronald McGinnis Sent: Tuesday, April 28, 2015 1:35 PM To: John Stamatakos
~~Subject:~~
~~RE: Diablo Canyon~~
~~John,~~
We just got back in the office from two weeks of travel. David and I are in the office this week and then gone again next week. How did the meeting with NRC go? I got your voicemail asking about the GIS file but I didn't get it until yest erday. Do we have the go ahead for Phase 2? If so, we may want to have a phone call this week to go over the details.
Thanks, Ronny From: John Stamatakos Sent: Friday, April 10, 2015 3:04 PM To: Ronald McGinnis Cc: David Ferrill; Alan Morris l(b)(5l ~; Kevin Smart; Sarah Wigginton;. Miriam R. Juckett
~~Subject:~~
RE: Diablo Canyon - - - - - - - - I mean Ronny ... sorry I know better From: John Stamatakos Sent: Friday, April 10, 2015 4:02 PM To: Ronald McGinnis Cc : David Ferrill; Alan Morris (alanmrrsO@qmail.com); Kevin Smart; Sarah Wigginton; Miriam R. Juckett
~~Subject:~~
RE: Diablo Canyon Thanks Ronnie, Outstanding job. I am very pleased with the progress so far. john From: Ronald McGinnis Sent: Friday, April 10, 2015 3:58 PM To: John Stamatakos Cc: David Ferrill; Alan Morris .. I; l(b-J(_5l_ _ _ _ _ _..... Kevin Smart; Sarah Wigginton
~~Subject:~~
~~RE:. Diablo Canyon~~
John, We are not quite finished with the data quality tab in the spreadsheet so that will have to continue, but all the data has been reviewed and is represented by a row in the following linked spreadsheet.
Y:\Diablo Canyon\Diablo Canyon\Document Catalog COMPLETE.xlsx Also, we are working on an ArcGIS project that helps to organize the seismic data. It should be finished by COB today. That link is at Y:\Diablo Canyon\Diablo Canyon\ArcG IS GED\Diablo Canyon March 2015.mxd The review document is at T:\Diablo Canyon\Diablo Canyon\CNWRA report April 2015\DiabloCanyonPowerPlant - seismic risk dat a survey April 2015.docx
All the rest of the files are in the Diablo Canyon folder on regios. Let us know if you have any questions. -Ronny From: John Stamatakos Sent: Friday, April 10, 2015 2:48 PM To: Ronald McGinnis
~~Subject:~~
Diablo Canyon Can I review all the files so I can present at NRC on Monday? John Dr. John Stamatakos Director ofTechnical Programs Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses (CNWRA) Southwest Research Institute 1801 Rockville Pike, Rockville, MD 20852 301-881-0290 jstamatakos@swri.org
Sent:27 Mar 2015 20: 19:55 +QOOO 6 To:Alan Morris;Atan Morris r- -'(- J_ _ _ _ _ _ _ b
~~Subject:~~
FW: Diablo Canyon Review Not sure why you weren't copied ... From: John Stamatakos Sent: Friday, March 27, 2015 3:01 PM To: Ronald McGinnis; David Ferrill; Amy Minor; Kevin Smart Cc: Miriam R. Juckett
~~Subject:~~
Diablo Canyon Review I've place most of my Diablo Canyon files on the. DEMPS server (Demps\regios). There are a series of reports that Pacific Gas & Electric (POG&E) produced over the last few years.
1. Shoreline and RIL: The Shoreline report was submitted by PG&E in 2011 and we (with NRC review if in 2012). The Regulatory Information Letter (RIL 12-01) is that review. This report and review focused on the Shoreline fault and potential implications to the Licensing Basis for the plant. But the. reports offer some good. general background information, Other. files in this folder are. related. to. the. Shoreline Report and the RIL.

2. DCPP Shoreline and Thrust Fault Allegation : In addition to the Shoreline Report, NRC had us.
~~look at an allegation made by a. former. PG&E consultant about other. possible faults and the. plant .. Alan helped me on one of the. allegations. (possible blind thrust beneath the plant site).~~
3. Central Coastal California Seismic Imaging Project: The California state legislature passed a bill after the Shoreline. Report authorizing PG&E to collect boat load. of new seismic imaging data. This report is essentially a data dump of that work, and it has the bulk of what I would like you all to look at.

4. LTSP: Th is is an old PG&E report (1991) that may also be useful as background.

5. NTIF DCCP PSHA Review: This is the actual new seismic hazard study that we are reviewing. We will need to cross reference the conclusions about faults (do they exist, their geometry, slip rate, length and area, etc.) based on seismic imaging to the data in the CCCSIP report.

6. Diablo Canyon ISFSR SER : This was our review of the site back in early 2000's for the Independent Spent Fuel Storage Installation (ISFSI). May be useful as background information.

7. Figure : is a folder I use to put in various figures and some of my Diablo Presentations and related images.
~~For reference: http://www.pge.com/en/safety/systemworks/dcpp/seismicsafety/index.page This link gets you to most of these reports on line. Work Scope: I have five progressive tasks in mind.~~
~~1. Look through the CCCSIP documents and develop a summary (catalog) of all the seismic imaging data that's there. Identify the who, what and where and assess its quality and possible~~
usefulness to the PSHA. I think we can do this relatively quickly. We can even bring on a temp/student if available and willing to work on this. NRC wants to be able to say that they are familiar with all the data and have looked it over as part of the review. I wou ld like to have a very quick deliverable on t his (couple of pages?) relat ively soon.
2. Identify which dat a in t he CCCSIP report is actually relied on to develop conclusions in t he new PSHA. Assess the validity of the structural/seismic interpretations from the quality of the seismic imaging data. This may take a bit longer than task 1, but I hope we can do this relatively quickly.

3. Identify potential faults in the data sets that may have been overlooked by the PSHA technical team. I am not suggesting we identify any vague targets, but if you see images that in your view (and based on your experience) are very likely significant fault s, we should tag them and assess their potential to influence the seismic hazard at the site.

4. For those critica l data sets identified in task 2, complete a technical review of the data and the interpretations. This will be included in our write up for the overall PSHA assessment.

5. Review the 30 data collected in the Irish Hills to reassess the blind thrust fault model (I think it is now referred to as the San Luis Range Thrust).
~~I'll walk you all through this again next week and provide some more background on the PSHA and how we can assess whether fault sources can be important to the PSHA next week.~~
~~Thanks, John Dr. John Stamatakos Director ofTechnical Programs Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses (CNWRAi Southwest Research Institute 1801 Rockville Pike, Rockville, MD 20852.~~
301-881-0290 jstamatakos@swri.org
Sent:28 Apr 2015 18:56:06 +0000 To:David Ferrill;Alan Morris;Kevin Smart;Sarah Wigginton
~~Subject:~~
~~FW: Diablo Canyon Is t here a particula r t ime that works for you all? I am good any time. From: John Stamatakos.. Sent: Tuesday, April 28, 2015 1:53 PM To: Ronald McGinnis~~
~~Subject:~~
RE: Diablo canyon I am in a Diablo meeting right now. We should have a call tomorrow. I'll have to look at my schedu le but could you ask your folks so we can set up a good time? John From: Ronald McGinnis Sent:.Tuesday, April 28, 2015 1:35 PM. To:. John Stamatakos
~~Subject:~~
~~RE: Diablo canyon~~
John, We just got back in the office from two weeks of travel. David and I are in the office th is week and then gone again next week. How did the meeting with NRC go? I got your voicema il asking about the GIS file but I didn't get it until. yesterday.
~~Do we have the go ahead for Phase 2? If so, we may want to have a phone call this week to go over the details.~~
Thanks, Ronny From: John Stamatakos Sent: Friday, April 10, 2015 3:04 PM To: Ronald McGinnis Cc: David Ferrill; Alan Morris j(b)(GJ ~; Kevin Smart; Sarah Wigginton; Miriam R. Juckett
~~Subject:~~
RE: Diablo canyon. ' - - - - - - - - ' I mean Ronny ... sorry I know better From: John Stamatakos Sent: Friday, April 10, 2015 4:02 PM To: Ronald McGinnis Cc: David Ferrill; Alan Morris l(bl(6l J>; Kevin Smart; Sarah Wigginton; Miriam R. Juckett
~~Subject:~~
RE: Diablo canyon _ _ _ _ _ _ _......
Thanks Ronnie, Outstanding job. I am very pleased with the progress so far. john From: Ronald McGinnis Sent: Friday, April 10, 2015 3:58 PM To: John Stamatakos Cc: David Ferrill; Alan Morris r__J(_ 5 l_ _ _ _ _ _ _~; Kevin Smart; Sarah Wigginton
~~Subject:~~
~~RE: Diablo Canyon~~
John, We are not quite finished with the data quality tab in the spreadsheet so that will have to continue, but all the data has been reviewed and is represented by a row in the following linked spreadsheet.
Y:\Diablo Canyon\Diablo Canyon\Document Catalog COMPLETE.xlsx Also, we are working on an ArcGIS project that helps to organize the seismic data. It should be finished by COB today. That link is at Y:\Diablo Canyon\Diablo Canyon\ArcGIS GED\Diablo Canyon March 2015.mxd The review document is at T:\Diablo Canyon\Diablo Canyon\CNWRA report April 2015\DiabloCanyonPowerPlant - seismic risk data survey April 2015.docx All the rest of the files are in the Diablo Canyon folder on regios. Let us know if you have any questions. -Ronny From: John Stamatakos Sent: Friday, April 10, 2015 2:48 PM To: Ronald McGinnis
~~Subject:~~
Diablo Canyon Can I review all the files so I can present at NRC on Monday? John Dr. John Stamatakos Director of Technical Programs Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses (CNWRA) Southwest Research Institute 1801 Rockville Pike, Rockville, MD 20852 301-881-0290 jstamatakos@swri.org
John Stamatakos From:John Stamatakos Sent:22 Apr 2015 02:20:23 +0000 To:Miriam R. Juckett
~~Subject:~~
~~FW: diablo scenario events From: Munson, Clifford [27] Sent: Tuesday, April 21, 2015 11:46 AM To: Ake, Jon; John Stamatakos; Graizer, Vladimir Cc: Heeszel, David~~
~~Subject:~~
~~diablo scenario events~~
John, Would you come up with some plausible scenario events for Hosgri in terms of the parameters listed below (as a spreadsheet?). I coded the SWUS GMM for T =1 sec. There are 31 median models each with a unique set of 10 coefficients. I just read in their electronic file as a 31 by 10 matrix to avoid typing errors. I also coded up the total sigma (3 branches with 2 coefficients for each branch).
~~The input parameters are:~~
1. Magnitude (mag)

2. Depth to top of rupture (ztor) in km

3. Rupture distance (rrup) in km

4. Joyner-Boore distance (rjb) in km

5. Fault dip angle (dip) in degrees

6. Down-dip rupture width (ddrw) in km

7. Horizontal distance from top of rupture measured perpendicular. to strike (Rx) in km

8. Fault type (REV,NRM, or SS) - depending on rake angle I will proceed to code T =0.1 sec and maybe. some more periods if. I have time.
~~I would like to verify our results somehow before we merge these codes with Roland's.~~
~~Thanks, Cliff~~
~~John StamataKos From:John Stamatakos Sent:22 Apr 2015 02:21 :53 +0000 T0P l(5l I~~
~~Subject:~~
~~FW: diablo scenario events From: Munson, Clifford [28] Sent: Tuesday, April 21, 2015 11:46 AM To: Ake, Jon; John Stamatakos; Graizer, Vladimir Cc: Heeszel, David~~
~~Subject:~~
~~diablo scenario events~~
John, Would you come up with some plausible scenario events for Hosgri in terms of the parameters listed below (as a spreadsheet?). I coded the SWUS GMM for T =1 sec. There are 31 median models each with a unique set of 10 coefficients. I just read in their electronic file as a 31 by 10 matrix to avoid typing errors. I also coded up the total sigma (3 branches with 2 coefficients for each branch).
~~The input parameters are:~~
1. Magnitude (mag)

2. Depth to top of rupture (ztor) in km

3. Rupture distance (rrup) in km

4. Joyner-Boore distance (rjb) in km

5. Fault dip angle (dip) in degrees

6. Down-dip rupture width (ddrw) in km

7. Horizontal distance from top of rupture measured perpendicular. to strike (Rx) in km

8. Fault type (REV,N RM, or SS) - depending on rake angle I will proceed to code T =0.1 sec and maybe. some more periods if. I have time.
~~I would like to verify our results somehow before we merge these codes with Roland's.~~
~~Thanks, Cliff~~
~~John Stamatakos From:John Stamatakos Sent:4 May 2015 18:01:22 +0000 To:Stovall, Scott (Scott.StovaU@nrc.gov)~~
~~Subject:~~
~~FW: Diablo SSC Attachments:Diablo Canyon Seismic Source Characterization Review I .pdf From: John Stamatakos Sent: Monday, May 4, 2015 9:37 AM To: Graizer, Vladimir (Vladimir.Graizer@nrc.gov)~~
~~Subject:~~
~~FW: Diablo. SSC From: John Stamatakos [-:-:m:- a:- ilt-:i cl.,,.. J(5.,..,l,,__ _ _ _ _ ___, (b..,. Sent: Monday, May 4, 2015 9:33 AM To: John Stamatakos~~
~~Subject:~~
Diablo SSC
DIABLO CAN't'ON SEISMIC SOURCE CHARACTERl2~ATION REVIEW John Stamatakos 5/4/2015
CONTEMPORARY TECTONIC SETTING Dextral strike-slip plate boundary with transpression I
~~\ \~~
~~\ I~~
\
Offshore Santa Maria Basin
GPS S TRAIN RATES (a) Model 3 from Murray (2012} : No Constraints on the (b) Model 4 from Murray (2012): Oceanic-West Huasna Fautt Oceanic-West Huasna Fault Slip Rate Slip Rate Constrained to < 1 mm/yr 37' 34* 0 100 ' 0 100 .... '
~~- 10 mmlyr X so nS/yt ' , 10 mmlyr X ~o nS/yr - 122* - 121* - 120* - 118" - 117'~~
122* 121* 120* - 119* ns* -1 17" EXPLANATION FrMfy-sllPJ>jng bouncbry Now: Red numb<<s ;.n slip r.l1e C'I rnrrlyr S8s ot ~ Resolved GPS Strain Rates on arrows ;re nbrNted str31n ~~ *teflSOl'S. Sets of IAd.
~~Saunc:l.arf on wflich bcMg is Hf!N:e 120" MORE STRAINS ~~~
~~~ *i~~
~
~~"I \~~
s.
~~.,_~~--~~~~--~~~~~.._~~~~~~~~~--~~
~~111*:ia 111 1) u1* uo*4~~~
~~.....~~~~""-~~~~~~~
1e1\*
."I* ..... ~ EXPLANATION HNVt lbt. CcmpoMDb*
~~R z righl-IMrai l z le\\-QIRr.ll l i i ._.~~
+ e,. ~dpMC.ld 9Vlll'Jllt>>ff GPS Striomo ~' ~
C) _ . . _ _ Analysis of GPS Dall UtinO Ill* GPSTRN P ~ C!Ol'llp955IONll (pt~r iO AID) .... &nlwn~lltP~(") ..... tt-*...,. and SSPX Inversion Algorithm*
'M ra:es'" mm~ S B Gi'S~\i,..1t1hGPS1lUt~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ - ,,_... DCPP SSC RfPORT "', *Wod!".el ffom\N'~*4:01~) *~~..~B!. . .~'~ figure 5*10 GPS Strain Rates from the NeoKlnema Model in South-Central Coastal California DCPP SSC REPORT
~~FAULT SOURCES o Geometry o Faulting Style (SS, Reverse, Composite) o Ruptures and Rupture Segments o Slip Rate o Slip Rate Allocation (on ruptures) o Magnitude Distribution Models o Time Dependency~~
~~Areal Sources and Distant Fault Sources .. . another day~~
Time Dependency Model Fault Geometry Rupture Slip R.ite Allocation Magnitude Distribution Model (Equivalent Poisson Ratio) Model Model Model (mm/yr) MagniWde PDF Mmax Mchar 8.5 7.3 [0.1) (0.2] 1 H90 H85-01 1.23 WMCY 81 71 [0.25] [0.2] [0.185] (0.8) [0.5) (0.5] 78 6,8 [0.4) [0.3] Hosgri 1.3 H85 H65-02 0.40 Source [0.5] [0.6] [0.630]
------ 8.5 Ir ------ Truncated (0 1]
61 H75 H85-07 0.13 Exponential B.1 NIA ~ 0.3 5 (0.25) [0.2) [0.185] (0.2) [0.5] Ic: 78 [0.4] I 1.6 ov 0.067 [0.185] Ctiaractenstic 6.8 [0.2]
~~~ SW-01 0.018 Earthquake NIA 6.5~~
~~> [0.25) (0.4]~~
~~Iii (1.0] [0.5]~~
~~... [0.630)~~
~~~ 0.005 6.3 ~~~
~~------ [0.185] (0.3)~~
Ci SLBP 1.1 SW SW-04 jr; 0 Sources [0.5] [0.4] ii SW-05 0.164 6.4 tmaln) i.! 0.3 NE SW-06 [0.185] 0.087 Simplified Maximum Magnitude NIA r (1 O] ~ Ii' u (0.25] (0.2) [0.630) 0.046 (1.0] l 6.3 (splay) (1.0]
~
~~CJI It ------ [0.185] iIll> Ir SW-10~~
~~-*~! Logic Tree Structure for the Primary and Connected Fault Sources I~~
~ ti) Notes: In the example tree. rupture source H85-02 is a longer linked rupture source, so the WMCY and truncated exponential magnitude PDF models are considered. Rupture source sw-01 ls a charactenstJc rupture source. so only the Youngs and Coppersmith (1985) characteristic earthquake magnitude PDF is considered. Rupture source DCPP SSC REPORT 5 SW-06 is a splay rupture source, so only the simplified maximum magnitude earthquake magrutude PDF model is II considered. See text ~ Pacific Gas and Electric Company Figure 6-1 It
FAULT GEOMETRY MODELS (FGM) o Three Hosgri FGMs o Three San Luis-Pismo Block (SLPB) FGMs Table 6-4. Fault Geometiy Models (FGMs) and Logic Tree Combinations SLPB FGMs Outward-Vergent Southwest-Vergent Northeast-Vergent Hosgri FGMs (OV) ( SW) (NE) Hosgri 90 (H90) H90/ 0 V H90J SW H90I NE Hosgri 85 (H85) H8510 V H851 SW H851NE Hosgri 75 (H75) H75/ 0 V H75/SW H751 NE o About 40 rupture segments
~~Three sets of rupture segments (for the three SLPB FGMs)~~
RUPTURE SEGMENTS o Outward-Vergent 04 8 ~ ! FiguN Hlilnt and N additional conn.ctlld faua sections ~ ----~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-----
MORE RUPTURE SEGMENTS SW-Vergent NE-Vergent i }
~~i I~~
Ae--- i2 ............. _.....,
EXAMPLE: HOSGRI FAULT RUPTURE MODELS Table 9.J. Hosgri Fault Rupture Model Rupture Fault Sections ' Source (closest section to 1he Number Type Description 0 CPP in bold) Sense of Slip HS+HA+HC+HB+HD+ H osgrl (C ent ra I H-01 Linked HN+Sl+SN +GS+GN +S Strike snp tra ce) to MT J 2 A Hosgrl ~est HS +HW+H B+HD+HN + H -0 2 Link ed strike sfip tra ce) to MT J Sl+SN+ GS +GN+S A H osgri (E ast HS +HE+HB+HD+HN+ S H -03 Linked Strike sllp tra ce) to MT J l+SN +GS +GN +SA Primary= H osgrl (C entral HS +HA+HC+HB+W R strike slip H-04 Complex tra ce) wth (prim a ry fa ult) P le dras 81 ancas Secondary= P 8 (secondary fault) reverse HS+HA+HC+HB+HO+ Shoreline wth HN+Sl+SN +GS+GN H-05 Splay H osgri (C ent ra I Strike slip (main fault); tra ce) to Solinas S E+SS+SH (splay fault) H osgrl north of HB+HO +H N+ Sl+S N+G H -063 Lin ked the Shoreline strike slip S +G N+SA fault Intersection H osgri north of HN+Sl+SN +GS +GN +S H -07 3 Linked t he Los Osos strike slip A fault intersection H-083 C haracteristic P iedras Blancas PB Reverse 1 T V\0-letter codes are expl ained in Ta ble 6~ end on Plate 9-1 . 2 MT J =Mendocino Triple Junction 3 Same do\l\ndip geomet ry is used for all three Hosgri FGMs .
THREE SLPM FGMs lj A N A J1
~~!6'011' J~ ,,.,..~~
~~14 L~~~
~~IC -~~
I ** ,.
THREE SLPB FGMs Parameter Values. Los Osos Faut Ollbe rd 'It !EE nt Wt 'It II!e nt NE 'ltrmnt Wt.i-d Medel Wt.ill!ht OA Wt.i!tit* OA Wt.iPlltOJ I'l l& mun Las O ms IC*l~lY-t.I lC*l.Mf-l~U IC *l.Mo-LY.-U summtr. 09' ,0 oil Dill!~n SW 10 SW '° SN
'° 10 ~ t Of~ 111'1l111 1111.-.0 II II Drp1tl to'> p 1 1 1 1 1 1 Wiltrl :a 11 J.4 11 J.4 12..4 S W~rgert NE ~rgert - -.- 1 c N~ : Crc.$ seotk)a 0-0' I *ow* 1> llllS1Fn LU HC1t:>t 01 l.0$ Oros 'CH It.
~~ue CbSU1JtCtkU 1D lie OCPP. ~ j LO I 010 I Fl ult P1nm tt.r ~ IUt I CCPP I IC RE FORT~~
! l'Zifc:G:innd ~caric: Co"Pln)' Fg* I! 7-2S C..._~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.......L-~~~~~~~~~"-~~~....1
~~HOSGRI FAULT SLIP RATE Slip Rate determined from four points~~
~~San Simeon~~
~~~ >t~~
~~Point Estero I~~
*
Estero Bay

Pont Sal i.
~~I I\ Pd rt Esten:> I~~
~~I I I~~
~~I I \ , I I I I I I SCuth?rn~~
~~. ,' Estero Bay c~~
~~SLIP RATE ESTIMATES (1)otr1tt PDF lb ) JUI tfta t on t>r 0th* t POF~~
., 801) - - - - - - - - - - t Wu*
Ult . 011..t (m) I tm Bl** II* .....* - - **
~
~~Slip Rates estimates are~~
! 10*0- - - * - - - - . - - t ,,.. !Rd , rttaea 311 '-9:1 *'l'llt"'L ~~ ....____
O*Qt'Ot*l'f**" *fl* **
~~.. ~-*- derived from probability IOmt . _ _ . . . _~~
~~0 I Ill lDO Ila ... )Ill 1110 uai. Qi] .........-........".-*-**-~~
~~-*~-~~
~~lftalwt., .......... u . ti~~
.. distribution functions (triangle or trapezoidal (c) AQt PCF (d) JuetftCI t on t>r AIP PCF distributions) for measured slip and estimated of offset VllUt ~@!*) BI U age UI* 1S(J *OJllMilll**Pllll,._ .... 1141$ '..I?'!'"' :ID ll) llltAl'ltd tilt) ........ .,~ , *
~~ti ...~~
~~.... ftt:..~a!W\lo lJt. !!!.**a 2f5 ")~~
~~We are developing an Excel 100~~
~~na N* . 725 spreadsheet to test (f)Sun*1r; Sb~ 1 1k 1 variations In these models.~~
~~ClJMUtl t W A'Ot>lbll I * ..,.,:r Slip Rlfit DDS '0~~
/ 01 ' 2 ,v 02 u 0..5 UJ ,/ 08 2.2 t
~~IJO I) *a~~
,/
j
~~-**.a 20 J~ I I 09 0.95 Ull 23~~
~~2. ,~~
07 t* 'lllt~ lt- * ......., . 2.8 Mun ll
OXYGEN ISOTOPE SEA LEVEL CURVES I MIS S MIS 5 MIS 7 Mii& MIS 11
~~" ( ua d*m t ea L* 1.1L i~~
i
~~( *,. ..~~
~~J E ~~~
~
~~E i~~
~~.f . !~~
~~i i . Sb i : I! Mii 12 i ~~~
~~t i Ml S G c~~
; MIS B .!!Mii ' 10 e .....&. * ' l .. ~.._,_.,.~l~a1tt,,_ a_1~al~*l~M~*-*l~m~u~m~t)'-1~1~2~ ! ......~,,_~_,.-c ) ~!-..~_..-.-~_,.~~~:_..:__-.-..__.,.....,.__..,.........,.,,_....,.__~,,_,..........,.
~~a 1~~
* ~ .-.. 1s. * ,,. .1$6 *.U.
~ AJwmats1.1 AG* Uad*Jci'Dr Unaant'"nl te oln Ibid~* JW1 ! ........... H l-J i H i~ Waelbroeck et al. ,(2002) ; Lisiecki and Raymo (2005) ;. Carlson (2008).
SLIP BASED ON OFFSET MARKERS IMAGED IN OFFSHORE SEISMIC REFLECTION DATA t. l*
~~~ \~ :~~
~~c t: t, . i.. d~~
~~\. ~""~~
1 j 1 .rr

ei
~
w
~~~ EXPLANAIDN~~
'i ! --*- rn,,..,..,._..._.,.uw , 1ut ....._ iW# ...i . . IH.Ot H , '"'°""' ... _.,_ hH,_.TN ho#fll Cl>>,_lt"f\I> D ~
~~, _ , ....1t4'\K... , "'~~
~~j i ..... ..... .~~
~~.... **.u....,~~
~~i t~~
~~.o ..u t """"'.. " ***hl\M Ct H UI o..,... * *o. ,_, **,,,,~~
E <<** ..n 1t "-'""'t,,_, "'~'" > * ,. ,..,,._..,. ~
~
~~tt i**ltt;..,._,""' . , ., ,.. ~*U""'fH IKitw ,~~
*Jt , ..,,_,.._ ,,,..,..,.,.,,.." * .n.cw " "* ** r., .., ..
~~dO** .UC.1, ,,, *'i . ,.....,,.,_ ct...1;. ., . , ,,,_~~
,...,, ... ,'°".....," W* I** .tO""' 0..,.,.. _,,,.. 1Ht1. ~ *t. .. n******' '"""*" .,,..,, ,,...
~~i i .........~~
*C* t* * "lit* .,,,_., .....,... ,__, .... ,..., ,,. .. ... ~ *"' .. +
0 I JlllO l lllO II E ) 0 ~a 1110 I'i c ea\ro Bl ~* : Pitre Ing Point oa*1 -Et 1-0.
! Stp1ra t on Ind Unctr i ln\*
I ~ 1. 1 OOPP 110 REPORf
MEAN CDF FOR HOSGRI SLIP RATE Slip Rate COF 0.1 Oll 5.Pant o rtr1butlon o.r lllp Rab I~ 0 .1 P*rc*ntl* om'893 mm..-r 0,6 0. 1D1
*.,*c O.ll 0 211702 1 0.2U
_ ,_,-... a.. , . ... . _..*df PJlll O.S 1.1 o.:m o~ 3 - _ .,..,. C....1* o _ . . ,, *
~~2.J D.2U 0.788296 I~~
; *"4*df P.'ll r 0.1 D.965107 J .1 0.101 i r:a * **. , - -..* - - ~ * .,. PJI "AtlgHt O Mun 1.7 I! o;i I
~~r a.* I a D.ll I Q :z.a OJI~~
~~*~ ll.O '1*~ I("'""'"' ... '~~
~~Mlle . r i. H111111u 1110 111* CDI~~
~~a11a11111* *1emti. _.,. ... _ _ ,. ,~~
- *o ul e CDl * * - 111***
1:11 1' ti**.. H- * *llo **ll * **
Ho agn sup Rab COFO>m p111tlon and Ul*c tlon ot5-Polnt o 11nt>ut on CCPP UC Rf FOIIT
SLIP RATE ALLOCATION MODELS o "A Slip Rate Allocation Model describes the slip rate allocated to individual rupture sources in a single Rupture Model. Accordingly, there is one Slip Rate Allocation Model for the Hosgri Rupture Model (that applies to all three Hosgri FGMs) and three Slip Rate Allocation Models for the SLPB Rupture Models-one each for the OV, SW, and NE Rupture Models." o "The Slip Rate Allocation Model creates a slip rate for each rupture source such that, when the contributions from all rupture sources including a particular fault are summed, the combined slip rate equals the target slip rate budget for that particular fault for that particular Rupture Model."
(b) Slip Rate Allocation Methodology for Mean Slip Rate, Fault Section S5 S4+ S5+S6 (i = 1) = S5+SS (i 2) S1+S4+S5 (i 3) = 1.5 slip rate units 10 shp rate units for 95 0.5 slip rate units 1or 95 50 of total tor S4,S5.S6 33% of total for S5 17% of total for S5 09 slip rate units for SQ 03 slip rate units tor 51 45% of total 4 of total for 51 0 10 ~* m 1 I Notes:
Black lines indicate tJu It rupture .

1value designates eaoh r~pture source lnvohnng fault section S5. The sum ofthe sip rates 1n all three soenanosequals1hetargetmean stiprate brfaultsection S5 (see equauon 9*1)
~~E XPLAH ATIOH~~
~~Site F autt sections: str k e*slip (left), reverse ( right)~~
~~Slip Rate Allocation Model Concer1t p) r autt section slip rate. with the v a lue in parentheses. and the width of the line~~
~~~) proportional to the s lip rate .~~
~~OCPP SSC REPORT idt~~
~~\9-1 Fault section IDs ands ection boundary Pac lie Gas and Electric Company f igure 9-9~~
~~(I) 1l\Jn: 1* 0 Eepontrrtlal , u_ J" M 5~~
' M~I MAGNITUDE I ~~*
~~DISTRIBUTION~~
~~~* *~~~
~~T 'I'; (b)llmpll1l*O ,,_ 11mun Ml giltuot J" s u -u MODELS i ... 1, (c)01arwc9 nat c etr11l~lllt~~
~~'-S.~~
I I _ fl ' lA.IJIJIQ J" ~nlu .. I e " - - l lal1Wl1 ..
! -- Clllrslulsl~CIK*
~~i f UC.* l\.. 1* 10 .:.DalW...,) ~~~
~
I t.U4>* i*
~
I (O) '*/IAACI

.~
~~'-i T T.~~~
~~El ' lA.IA11Q~~
~~~ ~ -- ~l'llU..~~
~~i i J" ... t laltw 11* llllllft e a ll i~~
~~<==~~
~~c111rm111S1~Plll'llll!~~
~~._ltft9 trfllD 1* 1 i,. 1 -~~
~~t' ~~~
~~~ * ...u ..~~
~~i, I SCl1tm 1 tlc 0Jgf1 m I Of MagnltuO* A"ODlbW\* 08 na lt,* Rmctlon a u HO In 1* tl1e CUt>IO an~* on I SC Model~~
~~* * *-.-1 rM oh l n. " ' .....,. n ..n r*~~
111t* *a.mr<<*--* **
*-1-.111a1 1r . . . . ... .,. . . . . 'li.......... ,-;r~* .--
~~rlii.iilUW olft-.Wli *iir-rr i.i .. ~~~
~~!!l'llll111!1!"U!'!!! . .~~
~~r.1.-..~~
~~,ff EACH RUPTURE ll'n,. . . . *llll' 111n11 SOURCE ASSIGNED TO ONE OF THREE ... ...._ l oil -* * *~* 1- liillfr-MI .-.* * * ~~~
~~MD Ms l l!llil . ..,. . . . . . -.I -11 111JP~li* 'r9~~
~~1iilii - l iilT1 II*** lli r "'Iii h L...,J-ID '> l I *Ila I "'>illoil 1 - 11~~
'.J liii - lli::i.ffil ., . . U It.- II Iii! .. it .Jiii lk* Jiiiiiili!ii llTaTI *
~~oiliin *'6"<11-1~~
~~!;jjT'I~~
[. . .... . . .., ...........thlil l
TIME DEPENDENCY MODE:L o For another time ....
(/) a: co DIABLO CAN't'ON SEISMIC SOURCE -0
<D
~~(/) co CHARACTERl2~ATION REVIEW g 5* John Stamatakos ....+ (/) 5/4/2015 ~ co~~
~~-0 OJ co co~~
~~(/) w~~
~~""I CJ1 00~~
~~CONTEMPORARY TECTONIC SETTING Dextral strike-slip plate boundary with transpression I~~
~~\ \~~
~~\ I~~
\
Offshore Santa Maria Basin
GPS S TRAIN RATES (a) Model 3 from Murray (2012} : No Constraints on the (b) Model 4 from Murray (2012): Oceanic-West Huasna Fautt Oceanic-West Huasna Fault Slip Rate Slip Rate Constrained to < 1 mm/yr 37' 34* 0 100 ' 0 100 .... '
~~- 10 mmlyr X so nS/yt ' , 10 mmlyr X ~o nS/yr - 122* - 121* - 120* - 118" - 117'~~
122* 121* 120* - 119* ns* -1 17" EXPLANATION FrMfy-sllPJ>jng bouncbry Now: Red numb<<s ;.n slip r.l1e C'I rnrrlyr S8s ot ~ Resolved GPS Strain Rates on arrows ;re nbrNted str31n ~~ *teflSOl'S. Sets of IAd.
~~Saunc:l.arf on wflich bcMg is Hf!N:e 120" MORE STRAINS ~~~
~~~ *i~~
~
~~"I \~~
s.
~~.,_~~--~~~~--~~~~~.._~~~~~~~~~--~~
~~111*:ia 111 1) u1* uo*4~~~
~~.....~~~~""-~~~~~~~
1e1\*
."I* ..... ~ EXPLANATION HNVt lbt. CcmpoMDb*
~~R z righl-IMrai l z le\\-QIRr.ll l i i ._.~~
+ e,. ~dpMC.ld 9Vlll'Jllt>>ff GPS Striomo ~' ~
C) _ . . _ _ Analysis of GPS Dall UtinO Ill* GPSTRN P ~ C!Ol'llp955IONll (pt~r iO AID) .... &nlwn~lltP~(") ..... tt-*...,. and SSPX Inversion Algorithm*
'M ra:es'" mm~ S B Gi'S~\i,..1t1hGPS1lUt~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ - ,,_... DCPP SSC RfPORT "', *Wod!".el ffom\N'~*4:01~) *~~..~B!. . .~'~ figure 5*10 GPS Strain Rates from the NeoKlnema Model in South-Central Coastal California DCPP SSC REPORT
~~FAULT SOURCES o Geometry o Faulting Style (SS, Reverse, Composite) o Ruptures and Rupture Segments o Slip Rate o Slip Rate Allocation (on ruptures) o Magnitude Distribution Models o Time Dependency~~
~~Areal Sources and Distant Fault Sources .. . another day~~
Time Dependency Model Fault Geometry Rupture Slip R.ite Allocation Magnitude Distribution Model (Equivalent Poisson Ratio) Model Model Model (mm/yr) MagniWde PDF Mmax Mchar 8.5 7.3 [0.1) (0.2] 1 H90 H85-01 1.23 WMCY 81 71 [0.25] [0.2] [0.185] (0.8) [0.5) (0.5] 78 6,8 [0.4) [0.3] Hosgri 1.3 H85 H65-02 0.40 Source [0.5] [0.6] [0.630]
------ 8.5 Ir ------ Truncated (0 1]
61 H75 H85-07 0.13 Exponential B.1 NIA ~ 0.3 5 (0.25) [0.2) [0.185] (0.2) [0.5] Ic: 78 [0.4] I 1.6 ov 0.067 [0.185] Ctiaractenstic 6.8 [0.2]
~~~ SW-01 0.018 Earthquake NIA 6.5~~
~~> [0.25) (0.4]~~
~~Iii (1.0] [0.5]~~
~~... [0.630)~~
~~~ 0.005 6.3 ~~~
~~------ [0.185] (0.3)~~
Ci SLBP 1.1 SW SW-04 jr; 0 Sources [0.5] [0.4] ii SW-05 0.164 6.4 tmaln) i.! 0.3 NE SW-06 [0.185] 0.087 Simplified Maximum Magnitude NIA r (1 O] ~ Ii' u (0.25] (0.2) [0.630) 0.046 (1.0] l 6.3 (splay) (1.0]
~
~~CJI It ------ [0.185] iIll> Ir SW-10~~
~~-*~! Logic Tree Structure for the Primary and Connected Fault Sources I~~
~ ti) Notes: In the example tree. rupture source H85-02 is a longer linked rupture source, so the WMCY and truncated exponential magnitude PDF models are considered. Rupture source sw-01 ls a charactenstJc rupture source. so only the Youngs and Coppersmith (1985) characteristic earthquake magnitude PDF is considered. Rupture source DCPP SSC REPORT 5 SW-06 is a splay rupture source, so only the simplified maximum magnitude earthquake magrutude PDF model is II considered. See text ~ Pacific Gas and Electric Company Figure 6-1 It
FAULT GEOMETRY MODELS (FGM) o Three Hosgri FGMs o Three San Luis-Pismo Block (SLPB) FGMs Table 6-4. Fault Geometiy Models (FGMs) and Logic Tree Combinations SLPB FGMs Outward-Vergent Southwest-Vergent Northeast-Vergent Hosgri FGMs (OV) ( SW) (NE) Hosgri 90 (H90) H90/ 0 V H90J SW H90I NE Hosgri 85 (H85) H8510 V H851 SW H851NE Hosgri 75 (H75) H75/ 0 V H75/SW H751 NE o About 40 rupture segments
~~Three sets of rupture segments (for the three SLPB FGMs)~~
RUPTURE SEGMENTS o Outward-Vergent 04 8 ~ ! FiguN Hlilnt and N additional conn.ctlld faua sections ~ ----~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-----
MORE RUPTURE SEGMENTS SW-Vergent NE-Vergent i }
~~i I~~
Ae--- i2 ............. _.....,
EXAMPLE: HOSGRI FAULT RUPTURE MODELS Table 9.J. Hosgri Fault Rupture Model Rupture Fault Sections ' Source (closest section to 1he Number Type Description 0 CPP in bold) Sense of Slip HS+HA+HC+HB+HD+ H osgrl (C ent ra I H-01 Linked HN+Sl+SN +GS+GN +S Stri ke snp tra ce) to MT J 2 A Hosgrl ~est HS +HW+H B+HD+HN + H -0 2 Link ed strike sfip tra ce) to MT J Sl+SN+ GS +GN+S A H osgri (E ast HS +HE+HB+HD+HN+ S H -03 Linked Strike sllp tra ce) to MT J l+SN +GS +GN +SA Primary= H osgrl (C entral HS +HA+HC+HB+W R strike slip H-04 Complex tra ce) wth (prim a ry fa ult) P le dras 81 ancas Secondary= P 8 (secondary fault) reverse HS+HA+HC+HB+HO+ Shoreline wth HN+Sl+SN +GS+GN H-05 Splay H osgri (C ent ra I Strike slip (main fault); tra ce) to Solinas S E+SS+SH (splay fault) H osgrl north of HB+HO +H N+ Sl+S N+G H -063 Lin ked the Shoreline strike slip S +G N+SA fault Intersection H osgri north of HN+Sl+SN +GS +GN +S H -07 3 Linked t he Los Osos strike slip A fault intersection H-083 C haracteristic P iedras Blancas PB Reverse 1 T V\0-letter codes are expl ained in Ta ble 6~ end on Plate 9-1 . 2 MT J =Mendocino Triple Junction 3 Same do\l\ndip geomet ry is used for all three Hosgri FGMs .
THREE SLPM FGMs lj A N A J1
~~!6'011' J~ ,,.,..~~
~~14 L~~~
~~IC -~~
I ** ,.
THREE SLPB FGMs Parameter Values. Los Osos Faut Ollbe rd 'It !EE nt Wt 'It II!e nt NE 'ltrmnt Wt.i-d Medel Wt.ill!ht OA Wt.i!tit* OA Wt.iPlltOJ I'l l& mun Las O ms IC*l~lY-t.I lC*l.Mf-l~U IC *l.Mo-LY.-U summtr. 09' ,0 oil Dill!~n SW 10 SW '° SN
'° 10 ~ t Of~ 111'1l111 1111.-.0 II II Drp1tl to'> p 1 1 1 1 1 1 Wiltrl :a 11 J.4 11 J.4 12..4 S W~rgert NE ~rgert - -.- 1 c N~ : Crc.$ seotk)a 0-0' I *ow* 1> llllS1Fn LU HC1t:>t 01 l.0$ Oros 'CH It.
~~ue CbSU1JtCtkU 1D lie OCPP. ~ j LO I 010 I Fl ult P1nm tt.r ~ IUt I CCPP I IC RE FORT~~
! l'Zifc:G:innd ~caric: Co"Pln)' Fg* I! 7-2S C..._~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.......L-~~~~~~~~~"-~~~....1
~~HOSGRI FAULT SLIP RATE Slip Rate determined from four points~~
~~San Simeon~~
~~~ >t~~
~~Point Estero I~~
*
Estero Bay

Pont Sal i.
~~I I\ Pd rt Esten:> I~~
~~I I I~~
~~I I \ , I I I I I I SCuth?rn~~
~~. ,' Estero Bay c~~
~~SLIP RATE ESTIMATES (1)otr1tt PDF lb ) JUI tfta t on t>r 0th* t POF~~
., 801) - - - - - - - - - - t Wu*
Ult . 011..t (m) I tm Bl** II* .....* - - **
~
~~Slip Rates estimates are~~
! 10*0- - - * - - - - . - - t ,,.. !Rd , rttaea 311 '-9:1 *'l'llt"'L ~~ ....____
O*Qt'Ot*l'f**" *fl* **
~~.. ~-*- derived from probability IOmt . _ _ . . . _~~
~~0 I Ill lDO Ila ... )Ill 1110 uai. Qi] .........-........".-*-**-~~
~~-*~-~~
~~lftalwt., .......... u . ti~~
.. distribution functions (triangle or trapezoidal (c) AQt PCF (d) JuetftCI t on t>r AIP PCF distributions) for measured slip and estimated of offset VllUt ~@!*) BI U age UI* 1S(J *OJllMilll**Pllll,._ .... 1141$ '..I?'!'"' :ID ll) llltAl'ltd tilt) ........ .,~ , *
~~ti ...~~
~~.... ftt:..~a!W\lo lJt. !!!.**a 2f5 ")~~
~~We are developing an Excel 100~~
~~na N* . 725 spreadsheet to test (f)Sun*1r; Sb~ 1 1k 1 variations In these models.~~
~~ClJMUtl t W A'Ot>lbll I * ..,.,:r Slip Rlfit DDS '0~~
/ 01 ' 2 ,v 02 u 0..5 UJ ,/ 08 2.2 t
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~~2. ,~~
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OXYGEN ISOTOPE SEA LEVEL CURVES I MIS S MIS 5 MIS 7 Mii& MIS 11
~~" ( ua d*m t ea L* 1.1L i~~
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~~a 1~~
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~ AJwmats1.1 AG* Uad*Jci'Dr Unaant'"nl te oln Ibid~* JW1 ! ........... H l-J i H i~ Waelbroeck et al. ,(2002) ; Lisiecki and Raymo (2005) ;. Carlson (2008).
SLIP BASED ON OFFSET MARKERS IMAGED IN OFFSHORE SEISMIC REFLECTION DATA t. l*
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MEAN CDF FOR HOSGRI SLIP RATE Slip Rate COF 0.1 Oll 5.Pant o rtr1butlon o.r lllp Rab I~ 0 .1 P*rc*ntl* om'893 mm..-r 0,6 0. 1D1
*.,*c O.ll 0 211702 1 0.2U
_ ,_,-... a.. , . ... . _..*df PJlll O.S 1.1 o.:m o~ 3 - _ .,..,. C....1* o _ . . ,, *
~~2.J D.2U 0.788296 I~~
; *"4*df P.'ll r 0.1 D.965107 J .1 0.101 i r:a * **. , - -..* - - ~ * .,. PJI "AtlgHt O Mun 1.7 I! o;i I
~~r a.* I a D.ll I Q :z.a OJI~~
~~*~ ll.O '1*~ I("'""'"' ... '~~
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- *o ul e CDl * * - 111***
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SLIP RATE ALLOCATION MODELS o "A Slip Rate Allocation Model describes the slip rate allocated to individual rupture sources in a single Rupture Model. Accordingly, there is one Slip Rate Allocation Model for the Hosgri Rupture Model (that applies to all three Hosgri FGMs) and three Slip Rate Allocation Models for the SLPB Rupture Models-one each for the OV, SW, and NE Rupture Models." o "The Slip Rate Allocation Model creates a slip rate for each rupture source such that, when the contributions from all rupture sources including a particular fault are summed, the combined slip rate equals the target slip rate budget for that particular fault for that particular Rupture Model."
(b) Slip Rate Allocation Methodology for Mean Slip Rate, Fault Section S5 S4+ S5+S6 (i = 1) = S5+SS (i 2) S1+S4+S5 (i 3) = 1.5 slip rate units 10 shp rate units for 95 0.5 slip rate units 1or 95 50 of total tor S4,S5.S6 33% of total for S5 17% of total for S5 09 slip rate units for SQ 03 slip rate units tor 51 45% of total 4 of total for 51 0 10 ~* m 1 I Notes:
Black lines indicate tJu It rupture .

1value designates eaoh r~pture source lnvohnng fault section S5. The sum ofthe sip rates 1n all three soenanosequals1hetargetmean stiprate brfaultsection S5 (see equauon 9*1)
~~E XPLAH ATIOH~~
~~Site F autt sections: str k e*slip (left), reverse ( right)~~
~~Slip Rate Allocation Model Concer1t p) r autt section slip rate. with the v a lue in parentheses. and the width of the line~~
~~~) proportional to the s lip rate .~~
~~OCPP SSC REPORT idt~~
~~\9-1 Fault section IDs ands ection boundary Pac lie Gas and Electric Company f igure 9-9~~
~~(I) 1l\Jn: 1* 0 Eepontrrtlal , u_ J" M 5~~
' M~I MAGNITUDE I ~~*
~~DISTRIBUTION~~
~~~* *~~~
~~T 'I'; (b)llmpll1l*O ,,_ 11mun Ml giltuot J" s u -u MODELS i ... 1, (c)01arwc9 nat c etr11l~lllt~~
~~'-S.~~
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! -- Clllrslulsl~CIK*
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~~* * *-.-1 rM oh l n. " ' .....,. n ..n r*~~
111t* *a.mr<<*--* **
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~~r.1.-..~~
~~,ff EACH RUPTURE ll'n,. . . . *llll' 111n11 SOURCE ASSIGNED TO ONE OF THREE ... ...._ l oil -* * *~* 1- liillfr-MI .-.* * * ~~~
~~MD Ms l l!llil . ..,. . . . . . -.I -11 111JP~li* 'r9~~
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TIME DEPENDENCY MODE:L o For another time ....
John Stamatakos From:John Stamatakos Sent:4 May 2015 18:03:37 +0000 To:Giacinto, Joseph (Josepb.Giacinto @nrc.gov);'Miriam R. Juckett'
~~Subject:~~
~~FW: Diablo SSC Attachments:Diablo Canyon Seismic Source Characterization Review I .pdf From: John Stamatakos Sent: Monday, May 4, 2015 2:01 PM To: Stovall, Scott (Scott.Stovall@nrc.gov)~~
~~Subject:~~
~~FW: Diablo SSC From: John Stamatakos Sent: Monday, May 4, 2015 9:37 AM To: Graizer, Vladimir {Vladimir.Graizer@nrc.gov)~~
~~Subject:~~
~~FW: Diablo SSC From : John Stamatakos [ mailto:john.stamatakos@qmail.com] Sent: Monday, May 4, 2015 9:33 AM To: John Stamatakos~~
~~Subject:~~
Diablo SSC
John Stamatakos From:John Stamatakos Sent:6 Apr2015 19:45:53 +0000 To:Ake, Jon (Jon.Ake@nrc.gov);Munson, Clifford (Clifford.Munson@nrc.gov);Graizer, Vladimir (Vladimir.Graizer@nrc.gov)
~~Subject:~~
~~FW: Password for Secured PDF Files From one of my staff working on the Diablo SSC reports. John From: Sarah Wigginton Sent: Monday, April 6, 2015 3:31 PM To: John Stamatakos Cc: Ronald McGinnis~~
~~Subject:~~
~~Password for Secured PDF Files~~
John, I'm working on finishing up the Diablo Canyon Document Catalog and I've noticed t hat some of PDF files are "secured" so I am unable to copy any of the material (titles, sources, etc.). Working with an un-secured version would greatly speed up the process of cataloging the figures!
Would it be possible to get my hands on a password for the "DCPP SSC Report Rev A"? Best,.. Sarah Sarah Wigginton Department of Earth, Material, and Planetary Sciences Geosciences. and Engineering Division Southwest Research Institute 6220 Culebra Road, San Antonio, TX 78238, USA
John Stamatakos From:John Stamatakos Sent:4 May 2015 12:40:07 +0000 To:John Stamatakos
~~Subject:~~
~~FW: PG&E: Diablo Canyon Public Meeting on April 28 Attachments:NRC Public Meeting 4-28 Seismic Final.pdf From: John Stamatakos Sent: Monday, May 4, 2015 8:39 AM To: John Stamatakos~~
~~Subject:~~
FW: PG&E: Diablo canyon Public Meeting on April 28 From : Difrancesco, Nicholas [29] Sent: Sunday, April 26, 2015 10:42 PM To: Munson, Clifford; Ake, Jon; John Stamatakos; Brittain Hill; Graizer, Vladimir Cc: Jackson, Diane; Shams, Mohamed; Vega, Frankie; Walker, Wayne; Alexander, Ryan; Moreno, Angel; Uselding, Lara; Burnell, Scott; Kock, Andrea; Scott Flanders; Maier, Bill; Roth(OGC), David; Lindell, Joseph; Uttal, Susan; Markley, Michael; Lingam, Siva; Hipschman, Thomas; Wyman, Stephen
~~Subject:~~
~~PG&E: Diablo Canyon Public Meeting on April 28~~
~~Folks, Attached are the PG&E slides in support of the Tuesday public meeting. NRC slides will be available. tomorrow morning.~~
~~Please forward to those I may have missed.~~
~~Thanks, Nick From: Jahangir, Nozar [ mailto:NxJl@pge.com]~~
~~Sent: Sunday, April 26, 2015 7:58 PM To: Difrancesco, Nicholas; Soenen, Philippe R Cc: Strickland, Jearl~~
~~Subject:~~
Diablo Canyon Public Meeting on April 28 Philippe; Attached is the DCPP presentation for the subject meeting. I will also take 30 hardcopies with me, as well. I will be travelling on Monday and will be in Rockville on Monday night. We also need the Web access number and passcode for Technical PG&E staff that will be calling in support of the presentation . Thanks
Nozar Jahangir P.E. Manager, Technical Services Diablo Canyon Seismic Engineering 805-545-6512 (bl( 5l (cell ) nx1 pge.com From: Difrancesco, Nicholas [30] Sent: Thursday, April 23, 2015 10:33 AM To:. Soenen, Philippe R Cc: Jahangir, Nozar; Vega, Frankie; Shams, Mohamed; Jackson, Diane
~~Subject:~~
NRC Technical Focus Areas for Support of Public Meeting on April 28 Mr. Soenen, In support of the public meeting scheduled for April 28, 2015, the NRG staff would like to gain additional technical understanding in several areas to support productive public meeting discussions. In addition to providing a general overview of the SSC and GMC SSHAC Reports and March 2015 50.54(f) response for DCPP, please provide additional clarification on the following topics. Seismic Source Characterization
1. Summarize the key data used to constrain the slip rate of the Hosgri fault, including associated uncertainties.

2. Clarify how elements of the thrust/reverse interpretation for the San Luis Range Thrust are incorporated into the SSC.

3. Clarify how the rupture models are derived from the fa ult source geometry models.

4. Summarize the methodology used to define the equivalent Poisson rates.
~~Ground Motion Characterization~~
1. Provide additional detail on the criteria used for the selection of the candidate ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for development of the common form median ground motion models for DCPP. Specifically, please elaborate on the basis for including GMPEs based on datasets other than NGA-West2.

2. Provide additional detail on development of the common functional form used to fit the candidate GMPEs. Specifically, please discuss how model parameters such as depth to.
~~Vs= 1 km/sand 2.5 km/s (which are present in some of the candidate GMPEs) are accounted for in the functional form.~~
3. Provide additional detail on the approach tor weighting the selected common form models as well as the criteria used to verify the physicality of the final models.

4. Provide additional detail on how the continuous distribution for total sigma (ass) was developed by combining the between-event and within-event aleatory variabilities.
~~Site Response~~
1. Section 2.3.2.1 of the 50.54(f) submittal states that shear modulus and damping curves are not directly applicable to DCPP since analytical modeling is not used and that non-linear site effects are implicitly included in the empirical GMPEs for Vs30= 760 m/s. However, the NGA-West2 database has a limited amount of data for sites with Vs30 near 760 m/s and for earthquakes with magnitudes and source-to-site distances similar to those dominating the hazard for DCPP. Please provide additional information on how these limitations in the NGA-West2 database are accounted for in the site response model for DCPP.

2. Section 2.3.6 of the 50.54(f) submittal describes the development of the site term for DCPP. For the calculations of between-event residuals, provide additional information on the criteria used to determine the appropriate distance range(+ and - Rrup) to the sample station. Please discuss the sensitivity of this distance range on between-event residual values. Please provide an example calculation that uses site-specific values to determine the values for cp525 , including the epistemic uncertainty in the site term.
~~Please let me know if you have any questions on the above focus areas.~~
Thanks, Nick DiFrancesco Senior Project Manager - Seismic Reevaluation Activities U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation Japan Lesson Learned Project Division nicholas.difrancesco@nrc.gov I Tel: (301) 415-1115 PG&E is comm itted to protecting our customers' privacy.
To learn more, please visit http://www.pge.com/about/company/privacy/customer/
Hill, Brittain From:Hill, Brittain Sent: l 8 Mar 2015 13:47:22 -0400 To:John Stamatakos;Miriam R. Juckett
~~Subject:~~
FW: Plan updated! Some updates added recently for WUS topics, and current status of different plants (Regional sections at end) Britt From: Gibson, Lauren Sent: Wednesday, May 21, 2014 2:41 PM To: Difrancesco, Nicholas; Burnell, Scott; Hill, Brittain
~~Subject:~~
Plan updated! Thank you for your help. The ADAMS version of the Communication Plan has been updaced. I've sent it to the State Liaison Officer Program contact. View ADAMS P8 Properties ML14083A619 Open ADAMS P8 Document (5/2 1/20 l 4, Communication Plan for Seismic Hazard Re-Evaluation Subm ittals in Response to NTTF Recommendation 2. l, Seismic) Lauren
Sent:9 Apr 2015 20:50:07 +0000 To:David Ferrill;Sarah Wigginton;Kevin Smart;Alan Morris;Alan Morris l(b)(6) b
~~Subject:~~
~~FW: Work in progress ... FYI. Many thanks Sarah!! From: Ronald McGinnis. Sent: Thursday, April 09, 2015 3:49 PM To: John Stamatakos Cc: Miriam R. Juckett~~
~~Subject:~~
~~RE: Work in progress...~~
~~John, Thanks John. I will send you the link to the spreadsheet and an ArcGIS project tomorrow.~~
David, Alan, and I are on travel May 4-8. The calendar shows Kevin and Sarah being here. I will pass along your thanks. -Ronny From: John Stamatakos Sent:.Thursday, April 09, 2015 3:43 PM To: Ronald McGinnis Cc: Miriam R. Juckett
~~Subject:~~
RE: Work in progress... I have looked it over and I think it's a good summary. I don' t have any changes now. I have not seen the data catalog, but sounds like you are working on it. I would like to have them tomorrow, so I can go through them and present them to the NRC team on Monday. Tell the team, especially Sarah, many thanks from me. Also, it looks like one of the NRC seismologists, Jon Ake, may be in San Antonio for a kickoff of another project in early May (4-6} . Are you around then? John
From: Ronald McGinnis Sent: Thursday, April 9, 2015 4:29 PM To: John Stamatakos Cc: Alan Morris; David Ferrill; Sarah Wigginton; Alan Morris ~(bl( l
~~Subject:~~
~~RE: Work in progress... 5 I); Kevin Smart~~
John, Have you had a chance to look at the document Alan sent? If you get a chance can you let us know what you think and if any changes are needed? Just so you are aware, Kevin and Alan are lead ing a field seminar in Death Valley and. Owens Valley returning Thursday of next week.
David and I are leading one all next week to West Texas. The week after that (April 20-24) we all will be in the field in West Texas (including Sarah) . Sarah finished the data catalog and I am going through it now evaluating the data quality. There are 1300 rows!! David, Sarah, and I are all in tomorrow if we need to discuss anyth ing.
Thanks, Ronny Ronald N. M cGinnis rmcginnis@swri.org Senior Research Scientist Department of Earth, Mat erial, and Planetary Sciences Southwest Research Institute 6220 Culebra Road San Antonio, Texas 78238-5166 Office: 210-522-5825 Mobile:_ r _)(-6 )_ _ _ __
From: Alan Morris Sent: Monday, April 06, 2015 3:06 PM To: Ronald McGinnis; David Ferrill; Sarah Wigginton; Kevin Smart
Cc: John Stamatakos
~~Subject:~~
RE: Work in progress... OK, it's 8 pages, and maybe too long, but for some reason these reports are always prolix. Is this what we need? Does it need pruning? Does it need analysis? Does it need anything? Alan Alan Morris Department of Earth, Material,. and Planetary Sciences Gcoscicnces and. Engineering Division Southwest Research Institute 6220 Culebra Road. San Antonio, TX 78238. USA Tel: 210.522.6743 Fax: 210.522.5155 Web page: http://www.swri.org/4org/d20/geosci/structur.htm hltp://3dstress.swri.org/ From: Alan Morris Sent: Friday, April 03, 2015 4:51 PM To: Ronald McGinnis; David Ferrill; Sarah Wigginton; Kevin Smart Cc: John Stamatakos
~~Subject:~~
Work in progress... T:\Diablo Canyon\Diablo Canyon\CNWRA report April 2015\DiabloCanyonPowerPlant - seismic risk data survey April 2015.docx I was planning to cycle back through adding important conclusions for every chapter, but any of us could do that... Chapter 1 is very useful in giving summaries of the data and goals for each of the subsequent chapters. For the tornado diagram, equations 1-1and1-2 in chapter 13 are the key. Gotta check posters for next week... Happy Easter Alan
Alan Morris Depariment of Earth, Material, and Planetary Sciences Geosciences and Engineering Division Southwest Research lnstilule 6220 Culebra Road. San Antonio. TX 78238, USA Tel: 210.522.6743 Fax: 210.522.S I SS Web page: hllp://www.swri.org/4org/d20/geosci/structur.htm http://3dstress.swri&J:d
BEFORE THE PUBLIC UTILITIES COM M ISSION OF TH E STATE OF CALI FORN IA Application of Pacific Gas and Electric ) Company for Compliance Review of Utility ) Owned Generation Operations, Electric Energy ) Resource Recovery Account Entries, Contract ) Application 15-02-023 Administration, Economic Dispatch of Electric ) (Filed February 27, 2015) Resources, Utility Retained Generation Fuel ) Procurement, and Other Activities for the Period ) Jan uary 1 through December 31, 2013. ) (U 39 E) ) ~~~~~~~~~~~~) ALLIANCE FOR NUCLEAR RESPONSIBILITY'S PROTEST JOHN L. GEESMAN DICKSON GEESMAN LLP 1999 Harrison Street, Suite 2000 Oakland, CA 94612 Telephone: (510) 899-4670 Facsimile: (510) 899-4671 E-Mail: john@dicksongeesman.com Date : April 3, 2015 Attorney for ALLIANCE FOR NUCLEAR RESPONSIBILITY
TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION. . 1 II. CHERRY-PEEVEY EMAILS REVEAL POST-FUKUSHIMA PR PLOY. 2 Ill. AB 1632 PROGRAM'S REVIEW SAFEGUARDS WERE BREACHED. 4 IV. PG&E SENT 'FINAL' REPORT TO THE NRC WITH NO IRPR REVIEW. 5 V. PG&E' s 2014 'FINAL' REPORT STONEWALLED IPRP 2013 CRITIQUE. 7 VI. DR. BLAKESLEE SPOTLIGHTS PG&E's DECEPTIVE PATTERN. 14 VII. PG&E' s POST-CCCSIP CONTEMPTUOUS DISCLOSURE. 16 VIII. TO LIVE OUTSIDE THE LAW YOU MUST BE HONEST. 18 IX. WHY A4NR PROTESTS. 21 APPENDIX A: PG&E SPECTRA CHARTS FROM CCCSIP REPORT A-1 APPENDIX B: PG&E LATE-DISTRIBUTED HAZARD CHART B-1
TABLE OF AUTHORITIES CALIFORNIA STATUTES AB 1632 ...................................................................................................... i, 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 20 CALIFORNIA PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION RULES Rule 2.6 ........................................................................... .................................................................... .................. .........1 CALIFORNIA PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION DECISIONS D.10-08-003 ................................................... ............. .................... ..................... ........................... ..................... 1, 4, 12 D.12-09-008 ................... .................................................................... .. ................ ................. ........................... 1, 4, S, 12 D.14-08-032 ..... ........................... ...... ............ .... ................... ........................... ...... ............ .... ................... ...................... 1 OTHER AUTHORITIES IPRP Report No. 1 ............................ .................................................................... ........................................................ 12 IPRP Report No. 2 ..........................................................................................................................................................4. IPRP Report No. 3 ...................................................................................................................................................... 4, 5 IPRP Report No. 6 ......... ............. ..... .................................................. .. ........... ..... ......................................... S, 6, 7, 9, 13 IPRP Report No. 8 .......... .... ............... ................... ............. .................. ................ ..................... .................. 10, 11, 12, 16 IPRP Report No. 9 ...... .......... ........... ................ .. ....................................... ........... ................ .. ..................... 7, 8, 9, 10, 13. ii
I.. INTRODUCTION .. Pursuant to Rule 2.6 of the Rules of Practice and Procedure of the California Public Utilities Commission ("Commission" or "CPUC"), the Alliance for Nuclear Responsibility ("A4NR") files its Protest to a portion of the 2014 Energy Resource Recovery Account Compliance ("ERRA Compliance") application filed by the Pacific Gas and Electric Company ("PG&E"). A4NR objects to PG&E's recovery of certain balances recorded in the Diablo Canyon Seismic Studies Balancing Account ("DCSSBA") for 2014 costs which fail to comply with D.12 008 and D.10-08-003 and, consequently, were not reasonably incurred. Additionally, D.14 032 directed PG&E to transfer funding for its Long Term Seismic Program ("LTSP"), including the Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee ("SSHAC") process, to the DCSSBA effective January 1, 2014, subject to reasonableness review in the ERRA Compliance process. 1 A4NR protests recovery of certain LTSP amounts as well. A4NR's Protest focuses on PG&E's continued evasion of the Independent Peer Review Panel ("IPRP") established by the Commission to assist in the oversight of the ratepayer-funded AB 1632 seismic studies. The legal and factual grounds for the 2014 Protest are similar to those cited in A4NR's protest of PG&E's still-pending 2013 ERRA Compliance application, A.14-02-008, broadened to include the LTSP to the extent that non-compliant avoidance of IPRP review has contaminated core assumptions used in PG&E's SSHAC reports. Sadly, the 2013 evidence cited in A4NR's opening and reply briefs in A.14-02-008 has been augmented by increasingly brazen defiance by PG&E of D.12-09-008 and D.10-08-003, as outlined herein. 1 D.14-08-032, OP 29 a. The Commission stated, "We find this disposition to be a reasonable. approach to improving oversight of the LTSP costs," (Id., p. 411) and, "We find this disposition to be a reasonable approach to assure the proper integration of Assembly Bill (AB) 1632 seismic studies with the LTSP and the SSHAC process." (Id.,
~~p. 412) 1~~
II. CHERRY-PEEVEY EMAILS REVEAL POST-FUKUSHIMA PR PLOY. A4NR' s Protest coincidentally follows the recent revelation of unreported ex parte communications in 2011 between PG&E Vice President Brian Cherry and Commission President Michael Peevey concerning PG&E's A.10-01-022, which sought ratepayer funding for the relicensing of the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant ("DCNPP" ). Five days after the Fukushima accident, AU Robert Barnett had taken the A.10-01-022 evidentiary hearing scheduled for April 13, 2011 off calendar. On April 11, 2011 - just one month after t he Japanese meltdown -- PG&E ceremon iously announced it would accelerate completion of the AB 1632 seismic studies and requested the U.S. Nuclear Regu latory Commission ("NRC") "to delay final action on the utility's on-going license renewal application until PG&E submits the findings. " 2 That same day, Mr. Cherry and President Peevey had the following exchange :3 From: Cherry, Brian K [31] Sent: Mon 4/ 11 /2011 2:49 PM To: Peevey, Michael R.
~~Subject:~~
~~FW : Diablo Canyon License Renewal Attached is the letter mentioned in the press release. From: Peevey, Michael R. [32] Sent: Monday, April 11 , 20114:34 PM To: Cherry, Brian K~~
~~Subject:~~
~~RE: Diablo Canyon License Renewal Very good. Prudent thing to do and should reduce some fears, concerns. 2~~
" PG&E Commit s to Finishing 3-D Seismic St udies Relat ed to Diablo Canyon Before Seeking Final Issuance of Renewed Licenses," news release from PG&E Extern al. Comm unicat ions, April 11, 2011. The release quot ed John Conway, Senior Vice President of Energy Supply and Chief Nucl ear Officer: "We recognize that m any in the public have called for this research to be completed before the NRC rene ws the plant's licenses, " said Conway. "We are being responsive to this concern by seeking to expeditiously complete the 3-D seismic studies ond provide those findings to the commission and other interested parties so that they m ay have added assurance of the plant's seismic integrity. "
3 Accessible at ftp://ftp2.cpuc.ca.gov/PG&E20150130ResponseToA1312012Ruling/2011/04/SB GT&S 0001262.pdf 2
From : Cherry, Brian K [33] Sent: Mon 4/ 11 /2011 4:47 PM To: Peevey, Michael R.
~~Subject:~~
~~RE: Diablo Canyon License Renewal ... and resurrect our application and get it back on track ? From: Peevey, Michael R. [34] Sent: Monday, April 11 , 2011 5:04 PM To: Cherry, Brian K~~
~~Subject:~~
~~RE: Diablo Canyon License Renewal Yep. I will have Carol talk to Barnett. From: Cherry, Brian K [35] Sent: Mon 4/11/2011 5:05 PM To: Peevey, Michael R.~~
~~Subject:~~
~~RE: Diablo Canyon License Renewal Thanks. The sooner the better. From : Peevey, Michael R. [mailto:michael.peevey@cpuc.ca.gov) Sent: Monday, April 11 , 2011 5:08 PM To: Cherry, Brian K~~
~~Subject:~~
~~RE: Diablo Canyon License Renewal May. From: Cherry, Brian K Sent: 4/ 11/20 11 5:09:40 PM To: 'Peevey, Michael R.'(michael.peevey@epue.ea.gov) Cc: Bee:~~
~~Subject:~~
RE: Diablo Canyon License Renewal Great. And thanks again. 3
Ill. AB 1632 PROGRAM'S REVIEW SAFEGUARDS WERE BREACHED. A4NR relied upon the establishment of the IPRP by the Commission in D.10-08-003 to ensure that the AB 1632 studies were conducted as robust scientific inquiry and not as a public relations exercise. As AU Barnett made clear in that proceeding: And I say this, and I'll say it on the record, that part of this is because I don't want the Commission to be in a position of just accepting what the utilities tell us without looking at it. We've gotten in that position too many times, and I feel that the way to avoid that problem that we are just taking the utility at its word without the expertise to determine the reasonableness of that. That is why I think the IPRP is valuable, and why they should have an expert witness to review this stuff. 4 The protocols for IPRP-PG&E interactions articulated in IPRP Report No. 2, 5 repeated verbatim in IPRP Report No. 3, 6 and reinforced by the admonition in D.12-09-008 ("We expect PG&E to 4 A.10-11-015 Transcript, p. 263. 5 IPRP Report No. 2, September 7, 2011, pp. 8 - 9: "The IPRP expects that:
PG&E will provide its study plans and draft completed study findings to the IPRP for review. These include studies summarized in CPUC Decision 10-08-003 including off-shore, on-shore, and ocean bottom studies, and seismic studies recommended in the AB 1632. Report.

The IPRP, coordinated by the California Geological Survey (CGS), will review and provide comments on PG&E's study.plans.. The goal will. be, if possible, to provide comments within. 30 days of receipt.

The IPRP, coordinated by the CGS, will review and provide comments on PG&E's draft completed study findings to the CPUC. The goal will be to provide comments as promptly as possible.

PG&E will review and, if possible, within 30 days incorporate the IPRP's recommendations and comments in PG&E's revised study plans and revised completed study findings and prepare for the IPRP a 'Response to Comments' for the IPRP to document scientifically why PG&E accepted or rejected the IPRP's comments.

PG&E and the IPRP will participate in quarterly meetings/briefings to review the status of PG&E's seismic studies, any changes in the. study plans, and any preliminary study findings.

PG&E and the IPRP will prepare a master schedule incorporating the major milestones for the IPR P's review process and will include these milestones in PG&E's monthly progress reports and schedule to the NRC and the Atomic Safety and licensing Board.

The CPUC and CEC will address any major scientific or technical issues that have not been resolved informally between the IPRP and PG&E. CPUC Decision 10-08-003 states that, 'Should a dispute arise it should be resolved informally but if that is not attainable the Commission has authority to halt the associated rate recovery.' In addition, the. CEC may report on any seismic issues and updates through its IEPR process. However, we anticipate that any major scientific or technical issue that may arise can be addressed and resolved informally.
The. quarterly briefings/meetings. mentioned above. will allow PG&E to report on its progress and help facilitate a productive informal exchange of scientific viewpoints." 4.
continue. to meet with the. IPRP to present and review changes to the. seismic study plans, to provide process updates to the IPRP regarding implementation of the studies, and to receive IPRP comments. " 7), offered at least theoretical protection from the PG&E misconduct which surfaced in 2013 and worsened in 2014. IV. PG&E SENT 'FINAL' REPORT TO THE NRC WITH NO IRPR REVIEW. PG&E submitted what it labeled the 'Jina/" AB 1632 report to the NRC on September 10, 2014, six days after the evidentiary hearing in A.14-02-008, and without providing even a draft of the submittal to the IPRP. As the Director of PG&E's Geosciences Department explained at the A.14-02-008 hearing, PG&E had decided that the IPRP was only entitled to receive 8 9 'Jinalized" results of the studies after PG&E had issued a 'Jinal" report to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. 10 As described in the evidentiary record of A.14-02-008, the extensive criticism of PG&E's ground motion assumptions at the July 11, 2013 IPRP meeting, followed by the eviscerating IPRP Report No. 6, appears to have significantly chilled relations between PG&E and the IPRP. One month after publication of IPRP Report No. 6, PG&E regul ato ry affairs personnel were complaining to CPUC staff about self-initiated reports by the IPRP and questioning whether the IPRP could be "decommissioned" after submittal of the 'Jina/" report. 11 6 IPRP Report No. 3, April 6, 2012, pp. 8 - 9. 7 0 .12-09-008, p. 16. 8 Richard Klimczak, PG&E, A.14-02-008 Transcript, p. 139, In. 16; p. 141, In. 14. 9 Id., p. 140, In. 21; p. 141, In. 22.; p. 142, In. 7. 10 Id., p. 140, In. 25. 11 A4NR Opening Brief, A.14-02-008, pp. 27 - 29 citing three internal PG&E emails dated September 16, 2013. 5
It had taken more than six months. of repeated requests by IPRP chair Chris Wills to. obtain PG&E' s documentation of its. Vs measurements at the DCNPP plant site, and. his efforts established that PG&E's Vs assumptions had a 50% greater impact on the. seismic hazard calculation than the. slip rate on the Hosgri Fault, previously. labeled the top uncertainty in the PG&E model. And IPRP Report No. 6 was unsparing in its criticism of PG&E's assumptions:
To prioritize the main targets of the AB 1632 onshore and offshore geophysical studies,. the IPRP earlier asked PG&E for sensitivity analyses of the. probabilistic hazards. PG&E's 2011 response ranked uncertainty in the slip rate of the Hosgri Fault as clearly the most significant, with a "calculated ground motion hazard that varies by a factor of nearly 2. " 12

Changing PG&E's base case ground motion characterization of V530 of 1200 m/s to a generic site. with a V530 of 760 m/s. ("more consistent with other soft rock sites in California" 13 ) "increases the hazard by more than a factor of 3" 14 and changing PG&E's assumed site condition to a generic site with a V530 of1000 m/s "increases hazard by a factor of 2." 15
* "Compared to traditional approaches, the PG&E method resulted in lower ground motion hazard estimates, particularly in the spectral period range important to
[Diablo Canyon] ... " In contrast, "{a) lower V530 brings the estimated ground motion hazards beyond the original design level when used in typical, state-of-the-practice seismic hazard analysis... " 16
The IPRP questioned whether PG&E's approach adequately captured shear wave velocities at different depths beneath the plant: "With only three profiles, it is unlikely that one of them represents the lowest velocity material underlying the plant.
Some of the variability seen in the 1978 data. may reflect poor quality of the Vs measurements made 35 years ago. Interpretations of that data, however, appear to include unconservative assumptions of velocity in boreholes where no velocity was recorded... " 17 12 IPRP Report No. 6, p. 17. 13 Id., p. 3. 14 Id., p. 18. 1s Id. 16 Id., p . 3. 17 Id., p. 6. 6
Nor was newer data from the ISFSl 18 site without problem : "these two profiles do not give consistent Vs measurements at given depths. Considerable variability exists at some depth ranges ... they do not help constrain the lower bound or range of velocity at the plant site." 19
* "A complete consideration of site conditions across the plant footprint requires additional Vs measurements using modern technology to constrain the uncertainty and yield more reliable site Vs values."20 V. PG&E' s 2014 'FINAL' REPORT STONEWALLED IPRP 2013 CRITIQUE.
Despite written assurances to the CPUC staff in response to IPRP Report No. 6 that "PG&E understands the scientific findings and will conduct the further studies noted,"21 and internal acknowledgment within PG&E's Geosciences Department that "The recommended tasks described in the conclusion are reasonable and we plan to address them as part of our own updated site response evaluation,"22 t he so-called final" report submitted to the NRC on September 10, 2014 is willfully unresponsive. As summarized in the IPRP' s belated review of the ground motion chapters of the 2014 "final" AB 1632 report:
~~IPRP Report No. 6 noted that 'Vs data at the DCPP site indicate significant variability~~
/uncertainty' and that PG&E's estimates "appear to include unconservative assumptions of velocity in boreholes'. IPRP recommended additional studies to determine the Vs beneath DCPP and the variability of Vs. 23 (emphasis added)
IPRP Report No. 6 recommended that PG&E 'demonstrate that the low site amplification seen at the DCPP site is due to site effects, not specific to. the azimuths and distances traveled by the recorded ground motions at the site from the two earthquakes used' 18 "ISFSI" is an acronym for Independent Spent Fuel Storage Installation.
19 IPRP Report No. 6, pp. 6 - 7. 20 Id., p. 6. 21 A4NR Opening Brief, A.14-02-008, p. 30, citing PG&E's October 10, 2013 written response to IPRP Report No. 6. 22 A4NR Opening Brief, A.14-02-008, p. 31, citing September 9, 2013 email from Dr. Norman Abrahamson to Richard Klimczak. 23 IPRP Report No. 9, pp. 2 - 3. 7
and 'justify the adequacy of using only two earthquakes to characterize site amplification'. 24 (emphasis added)
In response, PG&E confirmed in a letter to CPUC {PG&E, 2013} that it would conduct further studies to improve the quantification of site conditions and amplification. These studies would: (1) use new data from on-land exploration geophysics surveys to develop a 30 model of shear wave velocity beneath the plant site; (2) analyze broad band ground motion. data and ground motionsfrom small. earthquakes to better quantify site-specific amplification. terms;. and (3) evaluate.site amplification using analytical approaches in which seismic waves are propagated through a velocity model. The CCCSIP report addressed the first study as discussed in detail in the remainder of this IPRP report, but not the second and third studies. 25 (emphasis added)

The high-resolution tomographic model of the area near DCPP presented in the CCCSIP report shows details of the variation in. interpreted velocity. Important elements of this detailed model include: relatively low near-surface velocities in areas with remaining natural soil; relatively high near-surface velocities underlying much of the plant itself; highly variable estimates of V530; and irregularly shaped subsurface regions interpreted to have high velocity. 26

While each of these features of the tomographic model may represent improved understanding of the. 'site conditions' at DCPP and may lead to.decreased uncertainty in seismic hazard estimates, PG&E has not confirmed the uncertainties in these velocity estimates. Moreover, the CCCSI P report has an extensive discussion of the difficulty of gaining accurate tomographic results at shallow depths, given the constrained source-receiver locations. 27 (emphasis added)

Differences between V5 profiles measured in 1978 and profiles derived from the tomographic model may reflect poor data or poor. resolution. in the 1978 profiles. If the 1978 downhole velocity surveys represent 'ground truth',. however,. it appears that the.
tomographic model does not show some shallow high velocity layers up to 50' thick or low velocity layers up to 100' thick. The lack of correspondence between measured Vs 24 Id., p. 3. 25 Id. The "final" AB 1632 Report is also refe rred to as the " CCCSIP" report, an acronym for Central Coastal California Seismic Imaging Project. 26 Id., p . 4. 21 Id. 8
profiles and Vs profiles estimated from the tomographic model suggests significant uncertainty remains in estimates of "site conditions" at DCPP. 28 (emphasis added)
The IPRP cannot determine if these differences reflect poor data or analysis in one or both measurements of VS or if both surveys are essentially correct, but have differing levels of spatial resolution. Certainly, the differences. between VS profiles from the tomographic model and previously measured VS profiles should have been addressed in the CCCSIP report. 29 (emphasis added)

For the DCPP site, the use of single station sigma with site-specific term appears to be the key factor that brings the deterministic spectra below the original design spectra. 30 (emphasis added)

While the single station sigma assumption and especially the site term have a significant effect on hazard, the site term is based on the observations of only two earthquakes. 31 As described in IPRP Report No. 6, the IPRP is not convinced that the 'site term' reflects some property of the site that would affect all earthquakes recorded at DCPP. The alternative hypothesis that additional factors related to the particular source or paths of those two earthquakes remains at least as plausible. 32 (emphasis added)

The CCCSIP report does not include any additional studies to address this issue. The 3D site response analyses proposed by PG&E will not address whether single station sigma model is more reasonable than the ergodic assumption, nor will it reduce uncertainty in the site specific term that is calculated based on two recorded earthquakes. 33 (emphasis added)

Figure 6 compares deterministic spectra for the CCCSIP sensitivity scenario assuming linked co-seismic rupture of the Shoreline, Hosgri, and San Simeon Faults (M7.3}. It shows that deterministic ground motion increases across the spectrum as magnitude for the Shoreline Fault rupture increases from 6. 7 to 7.3. This figure also shows increased ground motion as V530 decreases from 1200 m/s {at the power block foundation level] to 28 Id., p. 5.
29 Id., pp. 5 - 6. 30 Id., p. 12. 31 The NRC staff noted this same limitat ion in its 2012 assessment of PG&E' s single-station-sigma adj ustment at DCN PP, observing, "Generally a larger. number af earthquakes. would be needed to develop confidence in the correction fo ctor." RIL 12-01, p. 59. 32 IPRP Report No. 9, p. 12. 33 Id. 9
760 m/s. More significantly, the figure shows, once again, that the most influential factor affecting deterministic ground motion estimates is the single station sigma assumption and the site term.34 (emphasis added)
The 30 response analysis cannot, however, address issues associated with the site-speci{ic term. IPRP previously expressed its concern regarding the adequacy of using only two.earthquakes in. estimating the site-specific term and made recommendations to gain confidence in the PG&E site-specific approach, including analyzing broad band ground motion data and ground motions from small earthquakes. to. better quantify. the site-specific term. PG&E has not addressed these recommendations.35 (emphasis added)

The "site term" based on two recorded earthquakes may represent other factors, rather than site conditions. IPRP is not convinced that this factor is adequately constrained for use in ground motion calculations. 36 (emphasis added)
The IPRP, impeded from performing its duties by PG&E's extended embargo from mid-2013 until the AB 1632 report was "finalized" in Sept ember 2014, was also critical of certain aspects of PG&E's seismic source characterization when it eventually gained access to the document. IPRP Report No. 8 is particularly pointed in its assessment of PG&E's analysis of onshore fau lts:
The IPRP is not convinced that the interpretations of the down-dip extensions oftaults are well constrained, even in the case of well-documented surface faults. Similarly, faults interpreted from the seismic sections, but not corroborated by surface mapping, (e.g. faults interpreted between the San Miguelita and Edna faults) are possible, but are by no means unique interpretations of the data. Overall, the IPRP is not convinced that projections o(faults beyond the very shallow subsurface represented unique interpretations of the data. 3 7 (emphasis added)) .

Projections o(faults to depth in 'basement' rocks of the Franciscan complex appear to be even more problematic. As discussed at the IPRP meeting on November 17, 2014, the Franciscan complex is known to be a mixture of different rock types pervasively 34 Id.
35 Id., p. 15. 36 Id. 37 IPRP Report No. 8, p. 5. 10
sheared at a variety of scales and is not expected to produce reflectors that are extensive over broad areas. The majority of seismic sections, (e.g. AWD line 150 as presented on Chapter 7, Figure 5-25) show prominent, continuous reflectors at relatively great depths in material that is assumed to be bedrock of the Franciscan complex. 38 (emphasis added)
Most deep reflectors shown on Figure 5-25, and in many other sections are arranged in groups of concave-upward, gently curved reflectors. These reflectors are interpreted in the CCCSIP report as representing geological structure. The IPRP, however, regards this pattern of concave-upward sets of reflectors as difficult to explain geologically, but not difficult to envision as artifacts from the data processing. If the continuous reflectors in Franciscan complex bedrock are artifacts of data processing, rather than representing geologic structure, then the seismic reflection surveys provide no constraint on the. down-dip geometry oftaults in the. Franciscan Complex.39 (emphasis added)

The Los Osos fault, in particular, is entirely within Franciscan Complex rocks from very shallow depths. If the reflection surveys do not show real geologic structure along the down-dip extension of this fault, then dip of the fault remains essentially unconstrained. 40 (emphasis added)

Since the Franciscan complex is known to be a mixture of different rock types pervasively sheared at a variety of scales, continuous, gently dipping layers are not expected. The overall arrangement of the. gently dipping 'reflectors' also raises questions that are not addressed in the report. In several sections, the arrangement of reflectors. does not resemble a cross-section oftolded or faulted rock. The pattern of concave-upward sets of reflectors seen in many sections does not have an obvious geological explanation, leading the IPRP to question whether they represent real geologic structure.41 (emphasis added)

Even if all reflectors shown in the seismic sections are images of geologic features, the interpretations of various faults are inconsistent and not unique: 1) In many cases, faults are interpreted based on a series of truncated reflectors, but are shown to pass through other reflectors that are not truncated; 2) In some seismic sections, it. appears that additional faults are permitted by the data. It is not clear how the stated interpretation methodology allowed the interpretation team to draw some faults and not others; and 3) Alternate interpretations of the dip of most faults are possible. 42 (emphasis added) 38 Id., p. 6.
~~39 Id. 40 Id. 41 Id., p . 7. 42 Id., pp. 7 - 8. 11~~
This concern applies to the dip of the Los Osos fault. Alternate dips, including relatively low-angle dips, of the Los Osos fault appear to be possible through sections 138-149 and 150 as shown on Figures 5-24 and 5-25 of the CCCSIP report. The reduction in uncertainty in seismic hazard depicted on the 'tornado diagram' for dip of the Los Osos fault appears to be based on the CCCSIP report conclusion that the new data precludes low-angle dips. The IPRP does not concur that low-angle dips are precluded by this new data and therefore does not believe that these studies have resulted in reduced 43 uncertainty in seismic hazard related to this parameter. (emphasis added).

Although surface faults recognized to date appear to be consistent with strike-slip faulting on the Shoreline fault, rather than thrusting on the SLRF, the possibility of thrust faults in the subsurface is not ruled out by on-land seismic survey data. The interpretation of the ONSIP data is far from unique and allows one to interpret a low angle reverse fault at the proposed location, contrary to what is stated in the CCCS/P report (p.70 Figure 6-54}. The CCCSIP interpretation criteria are not clearly defined and do not appear consistent in terms of selections made when seismic reflections are 44 truncated. (emphasis added)
IPRP Report No. 8 emphasizes the curtailed nature of its after-the-fact review, 45 and points out that proper evaluation of PG&E's seismic data acquisition and processing would requ ire the retention of outside consulting services - an authority expressly granted to the IPRP 46 47 by D.10-08-003 and D.12-09-008, and first promised at the IPRP's initial meeting on August 48 31, 2010, . but still unfulfilled as of the date of this Protest . . Unsurprisingly, it was the very fear of this pred ictable IPRP focus on data. acquisition and. processing that dominated. PG&E management's. 2013 internal "risk" evaluation of a. scenario labeled "IPRP Review": 43 Id., p. 8. 44 Id., p. 10. 45
~~. "IPRP review of the tectonic model is bosed on the CCCSIP report and presentotion. The IPRP has not had time, to review the seismic data processing in detail." IPRP Report No. 8, p. 7.~~
46
~~. D.10-08-003, p. 11.~~
47 D.12-09-008, p. 23. 48 IPRP Report No. 1, p. 5. 12
IPRP. recommends additional processing of data or interpretations aher their review of project results. The project results and conclusions are to be provided to the Independent Peer Review Panel {IPRP) as a condition of authorized CPUC funding for this project. They could recommend additional processing methods be applied or other interpretation techniques be utilized. The IPRP make-up does not have members who are experienced in processing and interpretation, but they could seek an independent 49 review by others. (emphasis added) IPRP Report No. 9 also describes more recent obstruction to its review of PG&E' s ground motion assumptions: Following the public meeting.on January 8, 2015, the IPRP had a number of additional questions regarding the velocity model described in Chapter 10 and requested an additional meeting with PG&E. PG&E declined to meet again with IPRP. As a result, this report only covers aspects of those models described in the CCCSIP report and the public meeting.50 (emphasis added) PG&E's successful strategy to circumvent meaningful IPRP review, originally formulated in 2013 and implemented as a reaction to the devastating IPRP Report No. 6, culminated with submittal of a deeply flawed '1inal" AB 1632 Report to the NRC in 2014. As of the date of this Protest, A4NR has had insufficient time to determine the degree to which adulterated assumptions from the inadequately reviewed AB 1632 Report have driven the conclusions of the LTSP's recent SSHAC Report. The cynical fashion in which PG&E's recent publicity offensive has invoked the hamstrung IPRP review to promote the rosy conclusions of the SSHAC Report leaves little room for doubt: 49 A4NR Opening Brief, A.14-02-008, p. 4, quoting a March 28, 2013 submittal to PG&E's Executive Project Committee by Ed Halpin, Jeff Summy, and Richard Klimczak. so IPRP Report No. 9, p. 2. 13
Independent experts also included an evaluation of the advanced seismic studies recently performed near Diablo Canyon, as well as feedback on the research provided from a 51 state-appointed independent peer review panel. (emphasis added)

Their work also utilized insight gained from the advanced seismic studies recently completed near Diablo Canyon. In addition, input on the advanced seismic studies provided by the California Public Utilities Commission's Independent Peer Review 52 Panel was considered in the seismic hazard re-evaluation process. (emphasis added)
* [This] work also included an evaluation of the advanced seismic studies recently performed near Diablo Canyon, as well as feedback on the research provided from a state-appointed independent peer review panel.53 (emphasis added)
VI. DR. BLAKESLEE SPOTLIGHTS PG&E's DECEPTIVE PATTERN. Leave it to the author of AB 1632, Dr. Sam Blakeslee, the former Exxon geophysicist who served as Republican Minority Leader of the California State Assembly, to assess the degree to which the $64.25. million ratepayer-funded.seismic studies have. been subverted . . As Dr.. Blakeslee. observed. in December 3, 2014. testimony to the U.S. Senate. Environment and. Public Works Committee, over several. decades PG&E has discovered more faults in close proximity to the plant, attributed. greater capability to the. faults which it has acknowledged, yet consistently proclaimed the seismic risk at the plant to be diminishing: . 'The potential earthquakes affecting the plant have increased with each major study. But what's equally striking is that the shaking 51 "Confirming Diab/a Canyon Plant's Safety," Ed Halpin, Lompoc Record, March 14, 2015. 52 "Seismic and tsunami safety a priority for Diablo Canyon, " Ed Halpin, San Luis Obispo Tribune, March 19, 2015. 53 "Op/ed: PG&E exec answers critics, says Diablo Canyon is safe, secure," Ed. Halpin, Pacific. Coast Business Times, March 20, 2015. 14
predicted by PG&E for these increasing threats. has systematically decreased as PG&E adopted less and less conservative analytical methodologies... " 54 Dr. Blakeslee was especially critical of PG&E' s debased "final" AB 1632 Report:
.... in a seeming contradiction,. rather than finding that larger or closer faults produce greater shaking and therefore a greater threat, PG&E argues in the Report that ground motion will be lower than the levels previously estimated. In other words, these newly discovered and re-interpreted faults are capable of producing shaking that exceeds the shaking from the Hosgri, yet that shaking threat would be much reduced from prior estimates.
Though discussed only in passing in the Report, the reason for this seeming contradiction is quite important when assessing whether or not the plant is safe or whether it is operating within its license conditions. The reason the earthquake threat purportedly went down when new faults were discovered is because the utility adopted significant changes to the methodology utilized for converting earthquakes (which occur at the fault) into ground motion (which occurs at the facility). This new methodology, which is less-conservative than the prior methodology, essentially "de-amplifies" the shaking estimated from any given earthquake relative to the prior methodology used during the licensing process. 55 PG&E's "final" AB 1632 Report artfully avoids an apples-to-apples comparison which would isolate the influence of its continuously evolving ground motion prediction methodology. The. charts. on pages 13 - 15 of the Technical Summary, attached to this Protest as Appendix A, purport to contrast the spectra derived from the AB 1632 studies against the 1977 Hosgri evaluat ion and the 1991 LTSP analysis. Neglecting to. reveal t he radically different methods for pred icting ground motions between cases has the same power of deception as assembling a financial spreadsheet mixing diff erent vintages of dolla rs without disclosure. . To the extent 54 Written Statement by Sam Blakeslee, Ph.D, t o t he Senate Comm ittee on Environment and Public Works, December 3, 2014, p. 3. Dr. Blakeslee' s complete st atement is accessible at http://www.epw.senate.gov /public/index.cfm ?Fu seAction =Files.View&Fi IeStore id=42d07 682-cad9-49f4-b bfl-fc9757f624c9 SS Id., p . 5. 15
that PG&E intended anyone to rely upon the misrepresentations-by-omission contained in these charts, and such reliance were to occur, the common law uses a certain f-word to describe such conduct. VII. PG&E's POST-CCCSIP CONTEMPTUOUS DISCLOSURE. Having successfu lly circumvented the IPRP before submitting its 'Jina/" report to the NRC, and choosing to absorb the criticism of IPRP Report No. 8 without response, the PG&E Geosciences Department cou ld not resist engaging in its own form of end-zone dance at the January 8, 2015 meeting of the IPRP. With peculiar aplomb, Dr. Norman Abrahamson blithely distributed a new hazard sensitivit y chart, attached to this Protest as Appendix B, and acknowledged that the six highest ranked uncertainties (each relating to earthquake-induced ground motions at the plant) had never before been presented to the IPRP. Despite admitting that PG&E's void of site-specific ground motion data dominates Diablo Canyon's probabilistic seismic hazard, Dr. Abrahamson nonchalantly suggested this deficiency be addressed in PG&E's 2025 update. There was no mention of the staggering difference in magnitude between the six newly identified uncertainties and the ones which had been selected for the AB 1632 studies. 56 His unmistakable message: having feasted on a $64.25 million authorization for ratepayer-funded studies, we never addressed the most significant issues or even told you what they were. But now we've run out the clock. Too bad, chumps. 56 Dr.. Abrahamson's discussion of the new hazard sensitivity chart runs from 1:51:27 to 2:03:25. in the video of the January 8, 2015 IPRP meeting, accessible at http:Uyoutu.be/hXu vnSgxMU 16
VIII.. TO. LIVE OUTSIDE THE LAW YOU MUST BE HONEST.. The light-handed oversight previously afforded PG&E in the conduct of its AB 1632 studies appears to be a legacy of the Commission's discredited, pre-San Bruno voluntary compliance era. As Executive Director Paul Clanon memorably testified to a California Senate committee, "That can be characterized as 'self-reporting,' but a better way to look at it is creating a safety culture at the utility. "57 He later explained that, in lieu of fines, "a better way to ensure safety is to make sure that a utility sees violations on its own has every incentive to report them. 1158 As Mr. Clanon told a post-explosion community meeting in San Bruno, fines might "discourage the utilities to come forward when they see a problem. A utility doesn't want their pipelines to be unsafe. "59 A4NR does not contend that PG&E wants DCNPP to be seismically unsafe. Rather, the accumulated record of PG&E's performa nce of its AB 1632 seismic studies documents a furtive, thumb-on-the-scale approach designed primarily to quell public apprehension and forestall pressure to close the plant. PG&E has received specia l dispensation from the NRC since October 12, 2012 to defer application of the Double Design Earthquake ("DDE") standard to the Shoreline Fault until submittal of the DCNPP SSHAC analysis -- despite the NRC's acknowledgment that "using the DOE as the basis of comparison will most likely result in the Shoreline fault and the Hosgri earthquake being reported as having greater ground motion" 57 "PG&E Hammered Over Safety Issues," San Mateo Times, October 19, 2010. 58 "State's gas pipeline inspections found to lag," San Francisco Chronicle, November 14, 2010. 59 "San Bruno blast victims skeptical of PUC oversight," San Francisco Chronicle, December 8, 2010. 17
than the plant's Safe Shutdown Earthquake. 60 This. remarkable prediction was. repeated by Dr. Cliff Munson, an NRC seismologist, in. testimony to. a June. 19, 2013 California Energy Commission workshop. 61 The. indifference with which California state agencies have,. at least publicly, accepted this revelation has been alarming but the financial bottom line. is undeniable: significant seismic retrofit requirements seem likely to be required. 62 A4NR does not expect the CPUC to involve itself in questions of the seismic licensing basis of DCNPP or the prudence of the manner in which the NRC has addressed the seismic licensing basis issue. 63 Instead, A4NR expects the Commission to be diligent in its application of traditional ratemaking authority to protect California's economic interest and electricity reliability interest in accurately understanding the seismic challenges facing the plant. The Commission would be derelict in meeting this responsibility by relying exclusively on PG&E's good faith or commitment to scientific objectivity. 60 Letter to Edward D. Halpin from Joseph M. Sebrosky, NRC Senior Project Manager for Plant Licensing Branch IV, Division of Operating Reactor Licensing, Office of Nuclear. Reactor Regulation, October. 12, 2012, accessible. at http ://pbad u pws.nrc.govI docs/M L1207 /M Ll 207 30106.pdf 61 Lead. Commissioner Workshop on California Nuclear. Power. Plant Issues,. Docket No.13-IEP-lJ, June 19, 2013, Transcript, p. 89, accessible at http://www.energy.ca.gov/ 2013 energypolicy/documents/2013 19 workshop/2013-06-19 nuclear workshop transcript.pdf 62 The severity of any such requirement is suggested by PG&E' s 2012 submittal to the NRC of a 331-page list of DCNPP deviations from the "new plant" criteria Dr. Munson testified will be applied: "The thing I want to emphasize is that the hazard evaluations are based on current practices for new reactors." Id., p. 81. PG&E's 331-page list of deviations is accessible at http://pbadupws.nrc.gov/docs/ML1134/ML11342A238.pdf 63 The Union. of.Concerned Scientists reported in 2013 th at, of th e.100 reactors currently operating in t he U.S., th e two at Diablo Canyon top the NRC's list as being most likely to experience an earthquake larger than th ey are designed to withstand, using NRC data to calculate the probability of such an event as more than 10 t imes greater than the nuclear fleet average. "Seismic Shift: Diablo Canyon Literally and Figuratively on Shaky Ground," Union of Concerned Scientists, November 2013, p. 7, accessible at http://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/legacy/assets/documents/nuclear power/diablo-canyon-earthquake-risk.pdf 18
PG&E is the only NRC power plant licensee in the history of. the commercial. nuclear power industry to face. criminal indictment for safety- related violations. by the U.S. Department of.Justice. While the 27 saf et y-related felony counts in PG&E' s. federal grand jury indictment are focused on the company's gas division, it strains credulity.to believe that DCNPP has been somehow immunized from the corporate cultu re rot that recently prompted Commission President Michael Picker to acknowledge during a California Senate oversight hearing that, "I think there's a very clear case that in some places, the utility did divert dollars that we approved 64 for safety purposes for executive compensation. " And the obstruction of justice felony count which leads PG&E's federal indictment emphatically addresses management as a whole:
"On or about September 10, 2010, and continuing through on or about September 30, 2011, in the Northern District of California, the defendant, PACIFIC GAS AND ELECTRIC COMPANY, did corruptly influence, obstruct, and impede, and did endeavor to influence, obstruct, and impede the due and proper administration of the law under which a pending proceeding was being had before a department and agency of the United States ... " 65 (emphasis added)
Although perhaps not a. matter of familiarity to utility regulators, the term "RAP sheet" is derived from the Federal Bureau of Investigation's Record of Arrests and Prosecutions.. Actual conviction. is not a prerequisite. A4NR is unaware. of any other California electric utility with a. RAP sheet. Whi le PG&E is.certainly entitled to. its day(s) in court to. defend itself from the federal charges, its.status. as a criminal defendant and the nature of its alleged crimes. should 64 President Picker's statement is at 36:56 of the video of the March 25, 2015 oversight hearing conducted by the California Senate Committee on Energy, Utilities and Communications, accessible at http://calchannel.granicus.com/MediaPlayer.php?view id=7&clip id=2682 65 United States o{ America. v .. Pacific Gas and Electric Company, United States District Court for. the Northern District of California, Case 3:14-cr-00175-THE, Superseding Indictment, July 29, 2014, p. 18. 19
discourage the Commission from extending any presumption of veracity to the. representations in PG&E's AB 1632 Report without corroboration by the. most rigorous scrutiny. IX. WHY A4NR PROTESTS. Building upon key decisions made and implemented by PG&E in 2013, the utility intensified its efforts in 2014 to subvert what was originally conceived by the Commission as a robust re-evaluation of DCNPP's seismic setting. If PG&E is allowed to recover the costs of such subterfuge, the effect on A4NR and all PG&E customers will be electricity rates rendered both unreasonable and unjust by Commission reward of unmistakable perfidy. The consequences for A4NR members (and others) living in communities near the plant stemming from unknowing acceptance of PG&E's defective seismic analysis could, in some circumstances, be much worse than that - with incalculable financial impact on California. A4NR requests evidentiary hearings and will conduct discovery and sponsor testimony elaborating on the facts conta ined in this Protest, as well as the extent to which PG&E's LTSP and SSHAC expend itures in 2014 were similarly tainted. Assuming timely responsiveness by PG&E to legitimate discovery requests, A4NR has no objection to the schedule proposed in PG&E's application. The undersigned will be the A4NR's principal contact in this proceeding, but A4NR also asks that the following two individuals be placed in the "information only" category of the Service List: Rochelle Becker David Weisman rochelle@a4nr.org david@a4nr.org 20
Respectfully submitted, By: /sf John L. Geesman JOHN. L. GEESMAN DICKSON GEESMAN LLP Date: April 3, 2015 Attorney for ALLIANCE FOR NUCLEAR RESPONSIBILITY 21
APPENDIX A PG&E SPECTRA CHARTS FROM CCCSIP REPORT A-1
Page 13of15 CCCSIP Report Technical Summary 1977 HE spectrum 1991 LTSP/SSER34 spectrum PB - Linked Hosgri and San Simeon (M 7.3) PB - Los Osos (M 6.7) PB - San Luis Bay (M 6.4) PB- Shoreline (M 6.7) 1977 HE spectrum extended to 0.5 Hz o --~~~+---""-!-~~~~,....---+~__._~~~-"'-! 0.1 1 10 100 ~ Frequency (Hz) .~ _ lhe 84th Pwcenme DefMmlrjsUc Ground llolons 8 few Four Fault Scenarios Compared to the 19T7
~~~ Hosgrl Earthquake (tE} and the 1991 LTSPISSER~~
~~~ :W Spectra for the OCPP Po- Block g Ji CCCSIP REPORT~~
~~~ . . PaciicG*umdBlcnCon.-y Figure 1*1 i,__~~~~~~~~~~~~----~ **~ * ~~~~~~~-'-~~~~~~~
Page 14of 15 CCCSIP Report Technical Summary 1977 HE spectrum 1991 LTSP/SS ER34 spectrum TB - Linked Hosgri and San Simeon (M 7 .3) TB - Los Osos (M 6.7) TB - San Luis Bay (M 6.4) TB - Shoreline (M 6.7) 1977 HE spectrum extended to 0 .5 Hz ll-0-+-~~-----~-+---+~~~--+-+-......-+-~..._~+--'--+-4 0.1 10 100 Frequency (Hz) The 14th ~nlle Detennlnlsdc Ground lloltons for FOUi" Fault Scenarios C0111pared to the 1977 HcJs91 E.-thquale (HE) and the 1991 LTSPISSER 34 Spectra for the DCPP Turtllne Buldlng CCCSIP REPORT ! ~PxilcGas.cte.dricecn.-y
~~'---~~~~~~~~~~~~~-=~~~~~~~~-'-~~~~~~~
Figure 1*2
Page 15of15 CCCSIP Report Technical Summary 19n HE spectrum 1991 LTSP/SSEA34 spectrum PB - Shoreline Linked to Hosgri & San Simeon (M 7.3) TB - Shoreline Linked to Hosgri & San Simeon (M 7.3) 19n HE spectrum extended to 0.5 Hz
~~~-____,.,. _. .t-ti- .,. . .-*tt-i--.--- r .,. . . . .,*-. .~ =~~
2
~~.S _ ,..,...,..,.~~
~~I - --h-t~~
.;...,...,.-,t 111 I I I 2 +--+-+-;....-:. ~~l~ ll +---~~ =-=~,.,..~ ~ n=\.t--~l__,.l_.;.-;- ' ...,.+r+1 Ill I .r ~ I ! i I .II I I - - ~Li I ! , II I !
~~111 I I' It I~~
~~-- f-j-+fLU -~~~
~~0----------------+----------__,~~
~~,_ ,_ ,_ I I I I I I 4 ~~~
0.1 1 10 100 Frequency (Hz)
APPENDIX B PG & E LATE-DISTRIBUTED HAZARD CHART B-1
l I I I Hazard Sensitivity Non-Ergodic Path ~, , 5 Hz, PSA = 2g Non-Ergodic Source I . Median from GMPE I -. I Site Amplification ... SigmaSS Model Time Dependent hazard I Hosgri Slip Rate I 1..!.
~~, .... I, _ - ~~~
~~I o SSC 2011 I I Hosgri Dip I ............ 1... .1... -~~
~~SSC 2014 Shoreline Slip Rate I- L- ~~~
~~I _. GMC 2014~~
~~+ Non-Ergodic GMC Hosgri - San Simeon Step Over I I I~~
11 Los Osos Dip ~ - I 11 I "" '-' Los Osos Slip Rate L-Shoreline and Hosgri Linking I L-I Los Osos Sense of Slip
~~. I ,'-'-- ........ I I~~
~~Shoreline Segmentation Shoreline Southern End I~~
~
I I . ' I ' . I 0.01 0.1 1 10 Hazard Ratio (not GM ratio)
John Stamatakos From:John Stamatakos Sent: 12 May 201520:14:25 +0000 To:Miriarn R. Juckett
~~Subject:~~
FW: Written concerns - April 28th, 2015 webcast meeting with PG&E Attachments:IPRP Report No 6- 1.pdf, IPRP Report No 8.pdf, IPRP Report No 9- 1.pdf, 040315 A4NR Protest-023.pdf, 051 2 15 Rochelle Becker-NRC staff.pdf Attachments are already publicly available FYI as ML15134A258. From: Rochelle Becker [36] Sent: Tuesday, May 12, 2015 4:09 PM To: njd2@nrc.gov Cc: Markley, Michael; Richard.Plasse@nrc.gov; Michael. Wentzel@nrc.gov; Wayne.Walker@nrc.gov; Ryan.Alexander@nrc.gov; Thomas Hipschman; Bill Maier; Yong.Li@nrc.gov; Nilesh.Chokshi@nrc.gov; Jim.Xu@nrc.gov; Kamal. Manoly@nrc.gov; P.Y.Chen@nrc.gov; John.Burke@nrc.gov; Clifford.Munson@nrc.gov; Gerry Stirewalt;.Timothy.Lupold@nrc.gov; John Stamatakos;. Siva .Lingam@nrc.gov; Chris.Miller@nrc.gov; Bill.Dean@nrc.gov; Brian.Holian@nrc.gov; Marc.Dapas@nrc.gov; Michael.Johnson@nrc.gov; jon.ake@nrc.gov
~~Subject:~~
~~Written concerns - April 28th, 2015 webcast meeting with PG&E~~
~~Dear Mr DiFrancesco,~~
Please see attached letter. There are four referenced attachments as pdf files as well. Thank you Rochelle Rochelle Becker, Executive Director Alliance for Nuclear Responsibility PO 1328 San Luis Obispo, CA 93406 www.a4nr.org
Jackson, Diane From:Jackson, Diane Sent:28 May 2015 09:43:04 -0400 To:Munson, Clifford Cc:Graizer, Vladimir;John Stamatakos;Ake, Jon ;Plaza-Toledo, Meralis ;Giacinto, Joseph;Stova11, Scott;Brittain Hill;Li, Yong
~~Subject:~~
FYI: Reminder senl to Diablo for Information Request Nick sent a reminder. Diane From: Difrancesco, Nicholas Sent: Thursday, May 28, 2015 9:16 AM To: Philippe Soenen (Pns3@pge.com); Jahangir, Nozar Cc: Michael Richardson (mjrm@pge.com); Strickland, Jearl; Shams, Mohamed; Jackson, Diane; Vega, Frankie
~~Subject:~~
~~Reminder on Diablo Information Request Philippe, et, al Just a reminder that the staff is interested in the following references to support NRG review:~~
1) Benchmark files. for. SWUS-DCPP median. ground motion. models.

2) ESTA 27 and 28 recordings of Parkfield and San Simeon earthquakes

a. Time histories

b. Response. spectra

c. Response spectra adjusted for Vs30

3) Engineering, reports describing development of velocity profiles for stations ESTA 27 and 28.

4) Paper describing WAACY Magnitude PDF by Wooddell and others.
Please let me know when the references will be available. Thanks,. Nick Senior Project Manager - Seismic Reevaluation Activities U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation Japan Lesson Learned Project Division nicholas.difrancesco@nrc.gov I Tel: (301) 415-1115
John Stamatakos From:John Stamatakos Sent:29 Apr 2015 15:52:32 +0000 To:Giacinto, Joseph (Joseph.Giacinto@nrc.gov);Plaza-Toledo, Meralis (Meralis.Plaza-Toledo @nrc.gov) Cc:Munson, Clifford (Clifford.Munson@nrc.gov);Ake, Jon (Jon.Ake@ nrc.gov);Jackson, Diane (Diane.Jackson@nrc.gov);Stirewalt, Gerry (Gerry.Stirewalt@nrc.gov);Seber, Dogan (Dogan.Seber@nrc.gov);Miriam R. Juckett;Graizer, Vladimir (Vladimi.r.Graizer@nrc.gov);Hill, Brittain (Brittain.Hill@nrc.gov)
~~Subject:~~
Hosgri Slip Rates Joe and Meralis, One of the more interesting, and more hazard sensitive, aspects of the Diablo canyon SSC is the Hosgri slip rate CDF. I suggest we focus our initial reviews on that aspect of the SSC. Dogan made a critical observation yesterday in our discussions, namely how can the lower tail of the CDF be justified. In thinking through the question last night I have a few suggestions. 1.. We should look at the seismic imaging data from the CCCSIP that PG&E uses to constrain the slip (interpretations of offset paleo-channels). There are 4 piercing points that PG&E uses to develop the composite slip rate CDF for the Hosgri fault. The slip rate data used for these 4 points is summarized in:
a. San Simeon/Oso Terrace - Figure 8-16

b. Point Estero Cross-Hosgri Slope - Figure 8-18

c. Estero Bay Submarine Channel - Figure 8.28

d. Point Sal Channel F - Figure 8.32 For each of these we should understand how the cumulative slip was determined (and uncertainty) and how the offset age was determined (and uncertainty).

1. Age: For San Simeon, the age is based on the interpretation that the unconformity overlying the buried geomorphic featured tied to the Younger Dryas, so t his one is rather straightforward. But the other three, especially Estero Bay and Point Sal, ages are based on interpret ations of age ranges from the seal level curves. So we will need to understand how the Tl team interpreted the offset parkers in terms of these curves and whether other interpretations outside the ones provided are permissible.

2. Slip: All the slip estimates are based on interpretations of the 20 and 30 seismic images and detailed sea floor bathymetry. I am going to ask my San Antonio team to look over these images from Chapter 8 of the SSC report to help us understand how the images were interpreted and to assess the overall quality of the interpretations. I am also interested in understanding whether the full range of uncertainty is included in the Tl team's interpret ations.
We could also ask Cliff and Jon to some sensitivity studies to constrain the limits of what we are looking for. I th ink it might be helpful here to know how far the current slip rate estimates would have to be different from those used in the study to move the hazard needle. For example, what if the Tl team were off by a single Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage (M IS)? For most of these my very preliminary
guesstimate is that would correspond to about a 25% increase in the slip rates. Would such an increase in rates be significant? I am going to have a call with my San Antonio team this afternoon, and would be happy to have you both on the call. Right now the call is set for 3:00 t his afternoon, but it can adjusted to meet your schedules.
~~Thanks, John Dr. John Stamatakos Director of Technical Programs Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses (CNWRA)~~
Southwest Research Institute 1801 Rockville Pike, Rockville, MD 20852 301-881-0290 jstamatakos@swri.org
John Stamatakos From:John Stamatakos. Sent: I 0 Apr 20 15 20:01 :06 +0000 To:Grai zer, Vladimir (Yladimir.Graizer@nrc.gov);Stirewalt, Ge1Ty (Gerry.Stirewalt@nrc.gov);Plaza-Toledo, Meralis (Meralis. Plaza-Toledo@nrc.gov);Miriam R. Juckett Cc:Ake, Jon (Jon.Ake@nrc.gov);Hill, Brittain (Brittain.Hill@nrc.gov);Munson, Clifford (Clifford.Munson @nrc.gov); 'lisa.walsch @nrc.gov';Li, Yong (Yong.Li@nrc.gov)
~~Subject:~~
~~Monday Diablo Meeting~~
~~Vlad, For Monday, I can walk everyone through the draft summary report w e have on the seismic imagining data and searchable image table.~~
John Dr. John Stamatakos Director of Technical Programs Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses (CNWRA) Southwest Research Institute 1801 Rockville Pike, Rockville, MD 20852 301-881-0290 jstamatakos@swri.org
Sarah Wigginton From:Sarah Wigginton Sent:6 Apr 2015 14:30:46 -0500 To:John Stamatakos Cc:Ronald McGinnis
~~Subject:~~
~~Password for Secured PDF Files~~
John, I' m working on finishing up the Diablo Canyon Document Catalog and I've noticed that some of PDF fi les are "secured" so I am unable to copy any of the material (titles, sources, etc.). Working w ith an un-secured version would greatly speed up the process of cataloging the figures!
~~Would it be possible to get my hands on a password for. the " DCPP SSC Report Rev A"?~~
~~Best, Sarah Sarah Wigginton Department of Earth, Material, and Planetary Sciences Geosciences and Engineeri ng Division Southwest Research Institute 6220 Culebra Road, San Antonio, TX 78238, USA~~
~~John Stamatakos From:John Stamatakos Sent:22 Apr 2015 02: 17:55 +0000 To:'Jackson, Diane'~~
~~Subject:~~
RE: DCPP, Palo Verde, and Columbia Audit Information: SSHAC Documentation from PPRP-IT Team Ok thanks I am working on some Diablo inputs for Cliff. John From:. Jackson, Diane [37] Sent: Tuesday, April 21, 2015 7:27 PM To: John Stamatakos; Spence, Jane
~~Subject:~~
Re: DCPP, Palo Verde, and Columbia Audit Information: SSHAC Documentation from PPRP-IT Team Jane, any chance u can get these on a CD? John, no Columbia tomorrow. Diane Sent from an NRC blackberry Diane Jackson l{b){6) From : John Stamatakos [38] Sent: Tuesday, April 21, 2015 04:25 PM To: Munson, Clifford; Difrancesco, Nicholas; Ake, Jon Cc: Jackson, Diane; Shams, Mohamed; Vega, Frankie; Graizer, Vladimir; Hill, Brittain; Seber, Dogan; Vega, Frankie; Stirewalt, Gerry
~~Subject:~~
RE: DCPP, Palo Verde, and Columbia Audit Information: SSHAC Documentation from PPRP-IT Team I can't get to the NRC drive so I'll get copies I am at NRC. Thanks John From: Munson, Clifford [39] Sent: Tuesday, April 21, 2015 4: 14 PM To: Difrancesco, Nicholas; Ake, Jon Cc: Jackson, Diane; Shams,. Mohamed; Vega, Frankie; Graizer, Vladimir; John Stamatakos;. Brittain Hill; Seber, Dogan; Vega, Frankie; Gerry Stirewalt
~~Subject:~~
~~RE: DCPP, Palo Verde, and Columbia Audit Information: SSHAC Documentation from PPRP-IT Team Importance: High~~
Nick, We took a quick look at the contents of the information for DCPP and PVNGS. The DCPP folder contains the PPRP-TI correspondence and interactions on the source model and ground motion model SSHACs. However, the PVNGS only has the ground motion model SSHAC PPRP-TI team material and not for the Source model. Please let us know when we can get the source model PPRP-TI team documentation.

Thanks, Cliff From: DiFrancesco, Nicholas Sent: Tuesday, April 21, 2015 1:25 PM To: Munson,. Clifford; Ake, Jon Cc: Jackson, Diane; Shams, Mohamed; Vega, Frankie; Graizer, Vladimir; John Stamatakos
~~<jstam@swri.org> (jstam@swri.org); Hill, Brittain; Seber, Dogan; Vega, Frankie; Stirewalt, Gerry~~
~~Subject:~~
~~DCPP, Palo Verde, and Columbia Audit Information: SSHAC Documentation from PPRP-IT Team~~
~~Folks, Please control distribution to the designated review team member for the following references.~~
Following your audit review, please advise if information reviewed should be docketed to support development of the hazard staff assessment or RAls. DC Audit Information S:\Diablo Canyon R2.1 Seismic lnformation\SSHAC Documentation of PPRP-TI Team Palo Verde Audit Information S:\Palo Verde R2.1 Seismic lnformation\SSHAC Documentation of PPRP-TI Team Columbia Information is on ePortal (PM action to work through access controls). Also, licensee plans to work with PNNL to post information on public website.
~~Thanks, Nick From: Soenen, Philippe R [40]~~
~~Sent: Tuesday, April 21, 2015 10:49 AM. To: DiFrancesco, Nicholas Cc: Jahangir, Nozar~~
~~Subject:~~
~~DCPP information on Certrec~~
~~Nick, We have uploaded the PPRP information onto Certrec IMS and granted access to Vladimir Grazier, John Stamatakos, and yourself. Here is how you get to the PPRP information in Certrec:~~
Login to ims.certrec.com

Click on "Inspections"

Set status to " In Progress" and Plant to "Diablo Canyon"

Click "Search" button.

Click link to "Self-Assessment I Audit- Review of PPRP Comments and TIT Resolution"

Click on t he "NRC Requests" tab

Click on what you would like to see.
~~Please let me know if you have any questions.~~
~~Regards, Philippe Soenen Regulatory Services Office - 805.545.6984 Cet1 l(bl(5l I PG&E is committed to protecting our customers' privacy.~~
To learn more, please visit http://www.pge.com/about/company/privacy/customer/
Alan Morris From:Alan Morris Sent:l5 May 2015 19:06:33 +0000 To:John Stamatakos Cc:David Ferri lJ
~~Subject:~~
RE: Diablo Canyon Not the version I am looking at - did you place it somewhere other t han on Regios? Alan Alan Morris Department of Earth, Material,. and Planetary Sciences Geoscienccs and. Engineering Division Southwest Research Institute 6220 Culebra Road, San Antonio. TX 78238. USA Te l: 2 I 0.522.6743 Fax: 210.522.5155 Web page: hnp://www.swri.org/4org/d20/geosci/structu r.htm http://3dstress.swri.org/ From: John Stamatakos Sent: Friday, May 15, 2015 2:03 PM To: Alan Morris Cc: David Ferrill
~~Subject:~~
RE: Diablo Canyon I did unlock that one I think? I do want to chat about this work next week when I am back in the office. John From: Alan Morris Sent: Friday, May 15, 2015 1:50 PM To: John Stamatakos Cc: David Ferrill
~~Subject:~~
~~Diablo Canyon~~
~~John, Did I understand you to have said that we might be able to see unlocked versions of some of the relevant documents?~~
If so, then I would like to be able to see all the parts of "NTIF DCCP PSHA Review", which seems to have some very good stuff in it, and it is not easy to read and annotate as it currently stands. Thanks Alan
Alan Morris Department of Earth, Material. and Planetary Sciences. Gcoscience and Engineering Division Southwest Research Institute 6220 Culcbra Road, San Antonio, TX 78238, USA Tel : 2 10.522.6743 Fax: 2 10.522.5155 Web page: http://www.swri.org/4org/d20/geosci/structur.htm http://3dstrcs\.swri.org/
Alan Mon-is From:Alan Morris Sent:28 Apr 2015 19:49:58 +0000 To:Ronald McGinnis;David Ferrill ;Kevin Smart;Sarah Wiggi nton
~~Subject:~~
RE: Diablo Canyon After 9:30 am is good for me --Alan Alan Mon*is. Department of Earth, Material. and Planetary S cience~ Gcoscienccs and Engineering Division Southwest Research lns1i1u1e 6220 Culcbra Road. San Antonio, TX 78238, USA Tel: 2 10.522.6743 Fax: 210.522.51 55 Web page: http://www.s wri.org/4org/d20/geosci/structur.htm http://3dstress.swri.org/ From: Ronald McGinnis Sent: Tuesday, April 28, 2015 1:56 PM To: David Ferrill; Alan Morris; Kevin Smart; Sarah Wigginton
~~Subject:~~
~~FW: Diablo c.anyon Is there a particular time that works for you all? I am good any time. From: John Stamatakos . Sent: Tuesday, April 28, 2015 1:53 PM To: Ronald McGinnis~~
~~Subject:~~
RE: Diablo c.anyon I am in a Diablo meeting right now. We should have a call tomorrow. I'll have to look at my schedule but could you ask your folks so we can set up a good time? John From: Ronald McGinnis Sent:. Tuesday, April 28, 2015 1:35 PM. To: John Stamatakos
~~Subject:~~
~~RE: Diablo c.anyon~~
John, We just got back in the office from two weeks of travel. David and I are in the office this week and then gone again next week. How did the meeting with NRC go? I got your voicemail asking about the GIS file but I didn't get it until yesterday.
~~Do we have the go ahead for Phase 2? If so, we may want to have a phone call this week to go over the details.~~
Thanks, Ronny From: John Stamatakos Sent: Friday, April 10, 2015 3:04 PM To: Ronald McGinnis Cc: David Ferrill; Alan Morris l(bJ( 6l J>; Kevin Smart; Sarah Wigginton; Miriam R. Juckett
~~Subject:~~
RE: Diablo Canyon - - - - - - - - I mean Ronny ... sorry I know better From: John Stamatakos Sent: Friday, April 10, 2015 4:02 PM To: Ronald McGinnis Cc: David Ferrill; Alan Morris ._l(b-J(_6l_ _ _ _ _ __.I); Kevin Smart; Sarah Wigginton; Miriam R. Juckett
~~Subject:~~
RE: Diablo Canyon Thanks Ronnie, Outstanding job. I am very pleased w ith the progress so far. john From: Ronald McGinnis Sent: Friday, April 10, 2015 3:58 PM To: John Stamatakos Cc: David Ferrill; Alan Morris q(bJ( 6l p ; Kevin Smart; Sarah Wigginton
~~Subject:~~
~~RE: Diablo Canyon - - - - - - - -~~
John, We are not quite finished with the data quality tab in the spreadsheet so that w ill have to continue, but all the data has been reviewed and is represented by a row in the following linked spreadsheet.
Y:\Diablo Canyon\Diablo Canyon\Document Catalog COMPLETE.xlsx Also, we are working on an ArcGIS project that helps to organize the seismic data. It should be finished by COB today. That link is at Y:\Diablo Canyon\Diablo Canyon\ArcGIS GED\Diablo Canyon March 2015.mxd The review document is at T:\Diablo Canyon\Diablo Canyon\CNWRA report April 2015\DiabloCanyonPowerPlant - seismic risk data survey April 2015.docx All the rest of the files are in the Diablo Canyon folder on regios. Let us know if you have any questions.
-Ronny From: John Stamatakos Sent: Friday, April 10, 2015 2:48 PM To: Ronald McGinnis
~~Subject:~~
Diablo Canyon Can I review all the files so I can present at NRC on Monday? John Dr. John Stamatakos Director of Technical Programs Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses (CNWRA) Southwest Research Institute 1801 Rockville Pike, Rockville, MD 20852 301-881-0290 jstamatakos@swri.org
John Stamatakos From:John Stamatakos Sent:29 Apr 2015 16:03:59 +0000 To:Ronald McGinnis
~~Subject:~~
~~RE: Diablo Canyon Ronnie, do we have a bridge line we can use? John From: Ronald McGinnis . Sent: Wednesday,. April 29, 2015. 10:37 AM To: John Stamatakos~~
~~Subject:~~
~~RE: Diablo Canyon Sounds good. From: John Stamatakos Sent: Wednesday, April 29, 2015 9:35 AM To: Ronald McGinnis~~
~~Subject:~~
~~RE: Diablo Canyon Office ... or we may use a bridge if I want to bring in NRC. From: Ronald McGinnis Sent: Wednesday, April 29, 2015 10:33 AM To: John Stamatakos~~
~~Subject:~~
~~RE: Diablo Canyon We will call. you. Office or cell? From: John Stamatakos Sent: Wednesday, April 29, 2015 9: 16 AM To: Ronald McGinnis~~
~~Subject:~~
~~RE: Diablo Canyon OK From: Ronald McGinnis Sent: Wednesday, April 29, 2015 10:00 AM To: John Stamatakos~~
~~Subject:~~
~~RE: Diablo Canyon~~
~~John, How about 2:00 our time?~~
~~-Ronny From : Ronald McGinnis Sent: Tuesday, April 28, 2015 1:55 PM To: John Stamatakos~~
~~Subject:~~
~~RE: Diablo Canyon Should work. I will get a time and let you know. From : John Stamatakos Sent: Tuesday, April 28, 2015 1:53 PM To: Ronald McGinnis~~
~~Subject:~~
RE: Diablo Canyon I. am in a Diablo. meeting right now. We should have a call tomorrow. I'll have to look at my schedule but could you ask your folks so we can set up a good time? John From: Ronald McGinnis Sent: Tuesday, April 28, 2015 1:35 PM To: John Stamatakos
~~Subject:~~
~~RE: Diablo Canyon~~
John, We just got back in the office from two weeks of travel. David and I are in the office this week and then gone again next week. How did the meeting with NRC go? I got your voicemail asking about the GIS file but I didn't get it until yesterday.
~~Do we have the go ahead for Phase 2? If so, we may want to have a phone call this week to go over the details.~~
~~Thanks, Ronny From: John Stamatakos Sent: Friday, April 10, 2015 3:04 PM To: Ronald McGinnis Cc: David Ferrill; Alan Morris P 6~~
~~__l(_l________ b; Kevin Smart; Sarah Wigginton; Miriam R. Juckett~~
~~Subject:~~
RE: Diablo Canyon I mean Ronny ... sorry I know better From : John Stamatakos Sent: Friday, April 10, 2015 4:02 PM To: Ronald McGinnis
Cc: David Ferrill; Alan Morris ._l<b_l(_6 l_ _ _ _ _ __,D ; Kevin Smart; Sarah Wigginton; Miriam R. Juckett
~~Subject:~~
RE: Diablo Canyon Thanks Ronnie, Outstanding job. I am very pleased with the progress so far. john From: Ronald McGinnis Sent: Friday, April 10, 2015 3:58 PM To: John Stamatakos Cc: David Ferrill; Alan Morris Cl,..(_. b ).._ ) _ _ _ _ ___,!);Kevin Smart; Sarah Wigginton ( 6.._
~~Subject:~~
~~RE: Diablo canyon~~
John, We are not quite finished with the data quality tab in the spreadsheet so that will have to continue, but all the data has been reviewed and is represented by a row in the fol lowing linked spreadsheet.
Y:\Diablo Canyon\ Diablo Canyon\Document Catalog COMPLETE .xlsx Also, we are working on an ArcGIS project that helps to organize the seismic data. It should be finished by COB today. That link is at Y:\Diablo Canyon\Diablo canyon\ArcGIS GED\Diablo Canyon March 2015.mxd The review document is at T:\Diablo Canyon\Diablo Canyon\CNWRA report April 2015\DiabloCanyonPowerPlant - seismic risk data survey April 2015.docx All. the rest of the files are in. the Diablo Canyon folder on regios. Let us. know if you have any questions. -Ronny From: John Stamatakos Sent: Friday, April 10, 2015 2:48 PM To: Ronald McGinnis
~~Subject:~~
Diablo Canyon Can I review all the files so I can present at NRC on Monday? John Dr. John Stamatakos Director of Technical Programs Center for Nuclear Waste. Regulatory Analyses (CNWRA~ Southwest Research Institute 1801 Rockville Pike, Rockville, MD 20852
301-881-0290 jstamatakos@swri.org
John Stamatakos From:John Stamatakos Sent: 15 May 2015 19: 16: 16 +0000 To:Alan Morris
~~Subject:~~
~~RE: Diablo Canyon No but Ill check again. From: Alan Morris Sent: Friday, May 15, 2015 3:07 PM To: John Stamatakos Cc:. David Ferrill.~~
~~Subject:~~
RE: Diablo Canyon Not the version I am looking at - did you place it somewhere other than on Regios? Alan Alan Morris Department of Earth, Material, and Planetary Sciences Gcoscicnces and Engineering Di vision Southwest Research Institute 6220 Culcbra Road. San Amonio, TX 78238, USA Tel: 210.522.6743 Fax: 210.522.5155 Web page: hup://www.swri.org/4org/d20/geosci/structur.htm http://3dstress.swri.org/ From:. John Stamatakos Sent: Friday, May 15, 2015 2:03 PM To: Alan Morris Cc: David Ferrill
~~Subject:~~
RE: Diablo Canyon I did unlock that one I think? I do want to chat about this work next week when I am back in the office. John. From: Alan Morris Sent: Friday, May 15, 2015 1:50 PM To: John Stamatakos Cc: David Ferrill
~~Subject:~~
~~Diablo Canyon~~
~~John,~~
Did I understand you to have said that we might be able to see unlocked versions. of some of the. relevant documents? If so, then I would like to be able to see. all the. parts of "NTIF DCCP PSHA Review", which seems. to have some. very good stuff in it, and it is not easy to. read and annotate. as it currently stands. Thanks Alan Alan Morris Department of Earth, Material, and Planetary Sciences Geosciences and Engineering Division Southwest Research Institute 6220 Culcbra Road, San Antonio, TX 78238, USA Tel: 2 10.522.6743 Fax: 2 10.522.5 155 Web page: http://www.swri.org/4org/d20/gcosci/stmctur.htm http://3dstress.swri.org/
Slip Rate COF
~~. - r ~/~~
~~0.9 I~~
./
~~I F~ ~ , I 0.8 ' I~~
~~/1 J 0.7 I~~
~~I 11 v I I 5-Point Distribution Slip Rate ~ = .c 0.6 I I~~
~~.1 .I Pe rcentile (mm/yr) Weight e~~
~~Cl. 0.5~~
~~,I If I 0.034893 0.6 0.1 01~~
- 0.211702 1 0.244 QI II I .?. - San Simeon I Oso Terrace .!! I Weight [0.3] 0.5 1.7 0.309
~~3 J~~
~~;; I E 0.4 0~~
3 I I - -Point Estero C ross~Hosgri slope 0.788298 2.3 0.244 I Weight[0.2)
~~I 0.3 I J~~
0.965107 3.1 0.101 VJ I I I - - Estero Bay submarine channel I Weight (0.3)

Weighted Mean 1.7 0.2 -
' / 1/ , ~ - * - Point Sal Channel F Weight [0.2) v-0.1 - -Weighted Hosgri slip rate 0 ~ '( ; /
0.0 0.5 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 5.0 5.5 Slip Rate (mrnfyr) Note: The Hosgri slip rate CDF is calculated from the weighted combination of slip rate CDFs developed for each of the four Hosgri slip rate sites. Hosgri Slip Rate CDF Compilat ion and Selection of 5-Point Distribution DCPP SSC REPORT
~~~ Pacific Gas and Electric Company Figure 8-33~~
~~John Stamatakos From:John Stamatakos Sent:29 Apr 2015 15:59:39 +0000 To:Ronald McGinnis;Alan Morris;David Ferrill ;Kevin Smart;Sarah Wigginton Cc:Miriam R. Juckett~~
~~Subject:~~
RE: Diablo Canyon Attachments:Composite Hosgri SR PDF.JPG Ronnie,. For the. call this afternoon . . I want to look at the seismic imaging data. from the CCCSIP that PG&E uses. to constrain the slip. (interpretations of offset paleo-channels) for the Hosgri Fault. There are 4 piercing points that PG&E uses to develop the composite slip rate CDF for the Hosgri fault. The slip rate data used for these 4 points is summarized in the SSC report in Chapter 8:
a. San Simeon/Oso Terrace - Figure 8-16

b. Point Est ero Cross-Hosgri Slope - Figure 8-18

c. Estero Bay Submarine Channel - Figure 8.28

d. Point Sal Channel F - Figure 8.32 For each of these we should understand how the cumulative slip was determined (and uncertainty) and how the offset age was determined (and uncertainty}.

1. Age: For San Simeon, the age is based on the interpretation that the unconformity overlying the buried geomorphic featured tied to the Younger Dryas, so this one is rather straightforward. But the other three, especially Estero Bay and Point Sal, ages are based on interpretations of age ranges from the seal level curves. So we will need to understand how the Tl team interpreted the offset parkers in terms of these curves and whether other interpretations outside the ones provided are permissible.

2. Slip: All the slip estimates are based on interpretations of the 2D and 3D seismic images and detailed sea floor bathymetry. The summary figures from the CCCISP are also in Chapter 8 of the SSC Report.

Thanks, John FYI I replaced the locked DCPP SSC Report Rev A in the folder with an unlocked pdf version so search and rescue is much easier now.
From: Ronald McGinnis Sent: Wednesday, April 29, 2015 10:00 AM
Sent:26 Mar 2015 15 :35 :53 +0000 To:David Ferrill;'Alan Morris';Kevin Smart Cc:Alan Morris
~~Subject:~~
RE: Diablo Canyon data review for NRC John is going to be here Tuesday morning. The plan is for Alan, Kevin (if you are here), and me to go over the project with him that morning and figure out a schedule. I am out most of the day on Wednesday for l(b)(G) Lso Thursday may be the day we can spend the most time with John on this. Unless David and Alan can do some on Wednesday while I am out.
~~-Ronny From : Ronald McGinnis.~~
~~Sent: Tuesday, March 24, 2015 9:08 AM To: David Ferrill; 'Alan Morris'; Kevin Smart Cc: Alan Morris~~
~~Subject:~~
RE: Diablo canyon data review for NRC Just got off the phone with John. We are set for next week April 1-2 (Wednesday and Thursday). I will get the conference room next to Violet reserved and I will get John set up on Regios so he can start loading data in advance of the meeting.
~~-Ronny From: David Ferrill Sent: Monday, March 23, 2015 10: 12 PM To: 'Alan Morris'; Ronald McGinnis Cc: Alan Morris; Kevin Smart~~
~~Subject:~~
RE: Diablo canyon data review for NRC Ronny, This sounds like an interesting project! Please let John know that I have been out of cell phone range for the last few days in Big Bend and just resurfaced today, and I did get his message and was planning to call. him tomorrow morning. I will be cleansing and having a colonoscopy Monday and Tuesday of next week, so those days are out for me. I expect/hope to be in on Wednesday and Thursday April 1-2, but w ill be taking off April 3'd for vacation. So, to me the best dates next week for meeting on t his appear to by April 1-2, 2015. David From: Alan Morris (!!19il!Qj.!"!(b,.,l(..,.6l..,....,..,,,.....,,,.,.., ___ _... Sent: Monday, March 23, 2015 9:58 PM To: Ronald McGinnis Cc: David Ferrill; Alan Morris; Kevin Smart
~~Subject:~~
Re: Diablo canyon data review for NRC
Next week is open, this week is not good for me, I am only planning to be in on Wednesday Alan On Mon, Mar 23, 2015 at 10:47 AM, Ronald McGinnis <rmcginnis@swri.org> wrote:
Guys, I just got off the phone with John Stamatakos regarding a project that has been funded that he wants our help with. Diablo. Canyon has acquired a very large seismic data set (2d, 3d over the plant site, extensive shaJlow seismic, and some off shore) something in the neighborhood of $60 million worth of data. Some is newly acquired and all the new stuff has been merged with the old stuff.
There are 400 hours. dedicated to this project. There would be. two phases to this. project. Phase I would be a high level review of the data and would be due in the next 45 days. Basically organize the data to see what they even have, perfo1m a basic QA to see if the seismic is even useful, and provide a 2-3 page report outlining the data and our observations. Phase 2 would be full -scale characterization (PETREL model) pending that we can prove from Phase. I that the. data is useful. John wants to come in next week to meet with us and look at the data for a couple days. Alan and David, can you offer two consecutive days that would work so I can let John know? I am avaj)able any day and Kevin said he could be. available in the. morning. Hope the trip is going well.
~~Thanks, Ronny Ronald N. McGinnis~~
rmcginnis@swri.org Senior Research Scientist Department of Earth , Material , and Planetary Sciences Southwest Research Institute 6220 Culcbra Road San Antonio, Texas 78238-5166 Office: 210-522-5825 _6)_ _ __. Mobile:._1'6)(-
John Stamatakos From:John Stamatakos Sent: 1 Jun 2015 12:00:29 +0000 To:'Munson, Clifford'
~~Subject:~~
RE: Diablo Canyon Mtg - Topic for this week Cliff, . I don't have anything to present this week. But wasn't the meeting moved to Wednesday? John From: Munson, Clifford [41] Sent: Monday, June 1, 2015 7:47 AM To: Ake, Jon; John Stamatakos; Graizer, Vladimir; Plaza-Toledo, Meralis; Stovall, Scott Cc: Jackson, Diane
~~Subject:~~
Diablo Canyon Mtg - Topic for this week We will discuss magnitude recurrence and activity rates assuming constant seismic moment rate. as opposed. to constant seismicity. I have a presentation but it will probably not take more than half of our allotted time of 2 hrs. Does anyone else have something to present? I will get the projector and laptop. Cliff
Munson, Clilford From:Munson, Clifford Sent:28 May 2015 11:40:45 -0400 To:John Stamatakos;Graizer, Vladimir;Stovall, Scott;Ake, Jon;Biittain Hill ;Plaza-Toledo, Meralis Cc:Jackson, Diane;DiFrancesco, Nicholas
~~Subject:~~
RE: Diablo Canyon RAI Thanks John. They don't define site profiles in terms of the layering, properties, etc. because they do the empirical approach. Cliff From: John Stamatakos [42] Sent: Thursday, May 28, 2015 10:28 AM To: Munson, Clifford; Graizer, Vladimir; Stovall, Scott; Ake, Jon; Hill, Brittain; Plaza-Toledo, Meralis Cc: Jackson, Diane; Difrancesco, Nicholas
~~Subject:~~
~~RE: Diablo canyon RAI~~
~~Cliff, I have a comment/question in the RAI..~~
Thanks,. John From: Munson, Clifford [mailto:Clifford.Munson@nrc.gov) Sent: Thursday, May 28, 2015 9:21 AM To: Graizer, Vladimir; Stovall, Scott; John Stamatakos; Ake, Jon; Brittain Hill; Plaza-Toledo, Meralis Cc: Jackson, Diane; Difrancesco, Nicholas
~~Subject:~~
~~Diablo Canyon RAI First draft of DCPP RAI on site response. Please take a look and let me know if you have any comments ..~~
~~Thanks, Cliff~~
~~Sent:27 Mar 2015 21 :21 :41 +0000 To:John Stamatakos~~
~~Subject:~~
~~RE: Diablo Canyon Review~~
~~John, Thank you. This is helpful. I assume you meant to. send this to Alan instead.of Amy so I forwarded it to him. Also,. what is the charge number. for this? .~~
~~Have a good trip and see you Tuesday. -Ronny From: John Stamatakos Sent: Friday, March 27, 2015 3:01 PM To: Ronald McGinnis; David Ferrill; Amy Minor; Kevin Smart Cc: Miriam R. Juckett~~
~~Subject:~~
~~Diablo Canyon Review I've place most of my Diablo Canyon files on the DEMPS server (Demps\regios). There are a series of reports that Pacific Gas & Electric (POG&E) produced over the last few years.~~
1. Shoreline and RIL: The Shoreline report was submitted by PG&E in 2011 and we (with NRC review if in 2012). The Regulatory Information Letter (RIL 12-01) is that review. This report and review focused on the Shoreline fault and pot ential implications to the Licensing Basis for the plant. But the reports offer some good general background information. Other files in.
~~this . folder are related to the Shoreline Report and the RIL. .~~
2. DCPP Shoreline and Thrust Fault Allegation: In addition to the Shoreline. Report, NRC had us look at an allegation made b~(b)(6 ) I.about other possible faults and. the plant. Alan helped me. on one of the allegations (possible blind. thrust beneath the plant site} . ..

3. Central Coastal California Seismic Imaging Project: . The California state legislature passed a bill after the Shoreline Report authorizing PG&E to collect boat load of new seismic imaging data. This report is. essentially a data dump of that work, and it has the bulk of what I would like.
~~you all. to. look at . ..~~
4. LTSP: This. is an old PG&E report (1991) that may also. be useful as background . .

5. NTIF DCCP PSHA Review: This is the actual new seismic hazard study that we are reviewing. We will need to cross reference the conclusions about faults (do they exist, their geometry, slip rate, length and area, etc.) based on seismic imaging to the data in the CCCSIP report.

6. Diablo Canyon ISFSR SER : This was our review of the site back in early 2000' s for the Independent Spent Fuel Storage Installation (ISFSI). M ay be useful as background information.

7. Figure: is a folder I use to put in various figures and some of my Diablo Presentations and related images.
For reference: http://www.pge.com/en/safety/systemworks/dcpp/seismicsafety/index.page This link gets you to most of these reports on line.
Work Scope: I have five progressive tasks in mind.
l. Look through the CCCSIP documents and develop a summary (catalog) of all the seismic imaging data that's there. Identify the who, what and where and assess its quality and possible usefulness to the PSHA. I think we can do this relatively quickly. We can even bring on a temp/student if available and willing to work on this. NRC wants to be able to say that they are familiar with all the data and have looked it over as part of the review. I would like to have a very quick deliverable on t his (couple of pages?) relatively soon.

2. Identify which data in t he CCCSIP report is actually relied on to develop conclusions in the new PSHA. Assess the validity of the structural/seismic interpretations from the quality of the seismic imaging data. This may take a bit longer t han task 1, but I hope we can do this relatively quickly.

3. Identify potential faults in the data sets that may have been overlooked by the PSHA technical team. I am not suggesting we identify any vague targets, but if you see images that in your v iew (and based on your experience) are very likely significant faults, we should tag them and assess their potential to influence the seismic hazard at the site.

4. For those critica l data sets identified in task 2, complete a technical review of the data and the interpretations. This will be included in our write up for t he overall PSHA assessment.

5. Review the 3D data collected in the Irish Hills to reassess the blind thrust fault model (I t hink it is now referred to as the San Luis Range Thrust).
~~I'll walk you all through this again next week and provide some more background on the PSHA and how we can assess whether fault sources can be important to the PSHA next week.~~
~~Thanks, John Dr. John Stamatakos Director of Technical Programs Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses (CNWRA)~~
Southwest Research Institute 1801 Rockville Pike, Rockville,. MD. 20852 301-881-0290 jstamatakos@swri.org
Time De~dei')' Model FaJI GeJrn~ry R~~ure SlipRieAlloe ion MaanittJde Dislnb~ion Model (Eq~went ftisscn Ratio) Model Mode Mlda(mmtyr) M n~ude: POr
~~
~~19 tm t!*01 12J WMCY 8.1 7,1~~
~~~.~ p~ ~.18~ ~l~ p.~ ~.~~~
~~18 6.8 P4l ~.~ Hos,1 1.3 H85 H8$02 04J SOllce ~~ p.6) -,. di'ft'1=R'jSSS~~
~*~ ....-.... BS ....... Tllll' Ci~ ~j1]
~~D.3 H75 H8)07 O.~ ~ent* 8.1 NIA~~
~~~~ p.~ P'651 ~~ P5J~~
~~Information (page 495/800) is duplicate. From:John Stamatakos Sent:2 1Apr 2015 16:39:4 1 +0000 To:'Munson , Clifford'~~
~~Subject:~~
~~RE: diablo scenario events Will do From: Munson, Clifford [43] Sent: Tuesday, April 21, 2015 11:46 AM To: Ake, Jon; John Stamatakos; Graizer, Vladimir Cc: Heeszel, David~~
~~Subject:~~
~~diablo scenario events~~
John, Would you come up with some plausible scenario events for Hosgri in terms of the parameters listed below (as a spreadsheet?) . I coded the SWUS GMM for T =1 sec. There are 31 median models each with a unique set of 10 coefficients. I just read in their electronic file as a 31 by 10 matrix to avoid typing errors. I also coded up the total sigma (3 branches with 2 coefficients for each branch).
~~The input parameters are: 1.. Magnitude (mag)~~
2. Depth to top of rupture (ztor) in km

3. Rupture distance (rrup) in km 4.. Joyner-Boore distance. (rjb). in km

5. Fault dip angle (dip) in degrees

6. Down-dip rupture width (ddrw) in km 7.. Horizontal distance from top. of rupture measured perpendicular to strike (Rx). in km

8. Fault type (REV,NRM, or SS) - depending on rake angle I. will proceed to code T =0.1 sec and maybe some more. periods if Lhave. time.
~~I would like to verify our results somehow before we merge these codes with Roland's.~~
~~Thanks, Cliff~~
~~John From: Munson, Clifford [44] Sent: Tuesday, April 21, 2015 11:46 AM To: Ake, Jon; John Stamatakos; Graizer, Vladimir Cc: Heeszel, David~~
~~Subject:~~
diablo scenario events John,. Would you come up with some plausible scenario events for Hosgri in terms of the parameters listed below (as a spreadsheet?) . I coded the SWUS GMM for T=1 sec. There are 31 median models each with a unique set of 1O coefficients. I just read in their electronic file as a 31 by 1O matrix to avoid typing errors. I also coded up the total sigma (3 branches with 2 coefficients for each branch). The input parameters are:
1. Magnitude (mag)

2. Depth to top of rupture (ztor) in km 3 . Rupture distance (rrup) in km

4. Joyner-Boore distance (rjb) in km

5. Fault dip angle (dip) in degrees

6. Down-dip rupture width (ddrw) in km

7. Horizontal distance from top of rupture measured perpendicular to strike (Rx) in km 8 . Fault type (REV,NRM, or SS) -depending on rake angle I will proceed to code T =0.1 sec and maybe some more periods if I have time.
~~I would like to verify our results somehow before we merge these codes with Roland 's.~~
~~Thanks, Cliff~~
~~Osvaldo Pensado From:Osvaldo Pensado Sent: 1 May 2015 09:28: 17 -0500 To :John Stamatakos~~
~~Subject:~~
~~RE: Function for excel And you wanted to become a manager ... he, he ;) From: John Stamatakos Sent: Friday, May 01, 2015 9:26 AM To: Osvaldo Pensado~~
~~Subject:~~
RE: Function for excel I think so. I am going to see if I can reproduce some of the Licensee results first. Right now I am knee deep in administrvia . John From: Osvaldo Pensado Sent: Friday, May 1, 2015 10:22 AM To: John Stamatakos
~~Subject:~~
~~RE: Function for excel Will the closed form formula for the trapezoidal sampling help you? From: John Stamatakos Sent: Friday, May 01, 2015 9:13 AM To: Osvaldo Pensado~~
~~Subject:~~
~~RE: Function for excel 20.17752.01.012 Thanks. so much John From: Osvaldo Pensado Sent: Thursday, April 30, 2015 7:23 PM To: John Stamatakos~~
~~Subject:~~
Function for excel Okay John. What is. the charge number? Doing your problem in Mathematica is quite simple. In Excel ... not so much. I give you instructions to get the trapezoidal function in Excel.
For the trapezoidal function for the offset: a=lS. b=26 c=35 d=43 pis a random number uniformly sampled between 0 an 1. It can be sampled with Excel using p=Rand(). Apply it to randomly sampled values of p=Rand() in Excel. The formula is a big sausage with nested if-then statements. At least it is a closed formula . There is a high chance to make a typographical error, though. You should consider programming the formula in a macro. trapezCDFlnv[p_, a_, b_, c_, d_] == If(O $ p&p b- a
~~< b -a- + c +~~
~~d'a + Ja 2 p - b 2 p- acp + bcp - adp + bdp, b- a a+ b - 2c 1 Elself( b d$p&p< b d,- (a+b-ap-bp+cp+dp),~~
~~-a - +c+ a + - c- 2 a+ b - 2c Elself[ b d ~ p &p a+ -c- ~ 1, d - -J~a_c_+_b_c___c__--ad___b_d_+_d_~~
2 2 -_-a_c_p___b_c_p_+_c_2_p_+_a_d_p_+_bd-p---d-2 p]]] This is the plot of the trapezCDFlnv function 40 35 'E i'30 co ~ 25 20 15 00 02 04 06 08 10 Cumulatr;e Probabihty j I derived the formula from the following trapezoid:
0 05 0.04
~
'.(!)i5 0 03 ..0 a_~ 0 02 0 01 0 00 0 10 20 30 40 50 Offset LmJ This is the CDF: parabola segment, followed by a straight line, ending in another parabola segment. 10 gO 8 .D 1:0 0 6 a.. E 04
)
(.) 0 2 00 0 10 20 30 40 50 Offsel~l I felt like programming the formula in Excel for you, but I changed my mind when I saw the sausage. can do the Monte Carlo in no time in Mathematica. I do not feel like touching the sausage. For a Triangular function the formula to use is cdffriangl nv[p_, a_, b_, c_) : = If[p
~~(b-a)/(c- a) ,a+ Sqrt[(b- a)* (c - a)~~
~~p],c- Sqrt[(c- a)* (c -b) * (1~~
~~- p)]];~~
again, p=Rand() To give you an idea on how simple the problem is in Mathematica, this would be the Latin hypercube sampling program (which will be better than random sampling you will do in Excel): shuffle[datos_] :=Module[{pivl,piv2={},indl},pivl=datos; While[Length[pivl]>O , indl=Random[Integer , {1 , Lengt h [pi vl] } ] ; AppendTo[piv2 , pivlindl]; pivl=Drop[pivl , {indl , indl}] ; ] ;
Return[piv2)) ; pvec=shuffle[Table[i , {i , 0 , 1 , 1 . 0 / 5000}]] ; agel=cdfTrianginv[# , 11 . 5 , 12 , 12 . 5]&/ @ pvec; pvec=shuffle[pvec] ; offsetl=trapezCDFinv[# , 15 , 26 , 35 , 43]&/ @ pvec ; dl=EmpiricalDistribution [offsetl/agel] ; And the slip rate is Plot[CDF[dl,x], {x, 0,4}, Frame--+ True, BaseStyle--+ 14, GridLines--+ Automatic, FrameLabel
~~--+ {"Slip Rate [mm/yr]", "Cumulative Probability"}]~~
10
~~~ 08~~
.D
~
~~e os Cl. Q}~~
~~~ 04 2t~~
J
~~§02~~
() 00 0 1 2 3 4 Slip Rate (mm/yr] Dr. Osvaldo Pensado Group Manager, Risk Analysis and Performance Assessment Geosciences and Engineering Division (210) 522-6084 opensado@swri.org
George Adams From:George Adams. Sent:l May 2015 16:11:37 -0500 To:John Stamatakos
~~Subject:~~
~~RE: Function for excel Attachments:CDANV.xlsm~~
~~John, I developed the spreadsheet attached with the macro written in Visual Basic (and shown below). Please let me know if this is what you needed or if an addition to it is needed.~~
George Option Explicit Function getTrapezCDFlnv(p As Double, a As Double, b As Double, c As Double, d As Double) As Double On Error GoTo errhandler getTrapezCDFlnv = 0# If 0 <= p And p < ((b - a) I (-a - b + c + d}) Then getTrapezCDFlnv =a+ Sqr(a fl 2
p - b fl 2

p - a

c

p + b

c

p - a* d

p + b

d

p)
~~Elself ((b - a) I (-a - b + c + d)) <= p And p <((a+ b - 2~~
c) I (a+ b - c - d)) Then getTrapezCDFlnv = 0.5 *(a+ b - a* p - b

p + c

p + d

p)
~~Elself ((a+ b - 2~~
~~c) I (a+ b - c - d)) <= p And p <= 1 Then~~
=
~~getTrapezCDFlnv d - Sqr(a~~
c + b

c - c fl 2 - a

d - b

d + d fl 2 - a* c

p - b

c

p + c fl 2

p +a

d

p + b

d

p - d fl 2

p)
Else getTrapezCDFlnv = -999 End If Exit Function errhandler: MsgBox "Error in getTrapezCDFlnv: " & a & b & c & d End Function Function getTriangCDFlnv(p As Double, a As Double, b As Double, c As Double) As Double On Error GoTo errhandler getTriangCDFlnv = 0# If p <= ((b - a) I (c - a)) Then getTriangCDFlnv =.a+ Sqr((b - a)* (c - a)* p) Elself p <= 1 Then getTriangCDFlnv =.c - Sqr((c - a)* (c - b) * (l - p))
Else getTriangCDFlnv = -999 End If Exit Function errhandler: MsgBox "Error in getTriangCDFlnv: " & a & b & c End Function From: John Stamatakos Sent: Friday, May 01, 2015 2:05 PM To: George Adams
~~Subject:~~
~~FW: Function for excel 20.17752.01.012 is the charge number See attached plot From: Osvaldo Pensado Sent: Thursday, April 30, 2015 7:23 PM To: John Stamatakos~~
~~Subject:~~
Funct.ion for excel Okay John. What is the charge number? Doing your problem in Mathematica is quite simple. In Excel ... not so much. I give you instructions to get the trapezoidal function in Excel. For the trapezoidal function for the offset: a=lS b=26 c=35 d=43 pis a random number uniformly sampled between 0 an 1. It can be sampled with Excel using p=Rand(). Apply it to randomly sampled values of p=Rand() in Excel. The formula is a big sausage with nested if-then statements. At least it is a closed formula . There is a high chance to make a typographical error, though. You should consider programming the formula in a macro.
trapezCDFlnv[p_, a_, b_, c_, d_] := If[O $ p & p b-a
~~< b -a- + c +~~
~~d'a + Ja 2 p - b 2 p- acp + bcp - adp + bdp, b- a a+ b - 2c 1 Elself[ b d::;;p&p< b d,- (a+b-ap-bp+cp+dp),~~
~~-a - +c+ a + - c- 2 a+ b- 2c Elself[ b d $ p &p a+ -c- $ 1, d - .J~a-c_+_b_c___ c_~~
2 -_-a_d___b_d_+_d_2_--a-cp___b_c_p_+_c_2_p_+_ad_p_+_b_d_p___d_2_p]]] This is the plot of the trapezCDFinv function 40 35 20 15 00 02 04 06 08 10 Cumulatiw Probabihty I derived the formula from the following trapezoid: 0 05 0.04 ]; 15 co 0 03 .D
~~~ 0 02 Q.~~
0.01 0 00 0 10 20 30 40 50 Offset [mJ This is the CDF: parabola segment, followed by a straight line, ending in another parabola segment.
10 10 20 JO 40 50 Offsel [m] J I felt like programming the formula in Excel for you, but I changed my mind when I saw the sausage. can do the Monte Carlo in no time in Mathematica. I do not feel like touching the sausage . For a Triangular function the formula to use is cdITrianglnv[p_, a_, b_, c_]: = If{p
~~(b - a)/(c - a), a+ Sqrt[(b - a)* (c - a)* p], c - Sqrt[(c - a)* (c - b) * (1~~
~~- p)]];~~
again, p=Rand() To give you an idea on how simple the problem is in Mathematica, this would be the Latin hypercube sampling program (which will be better than random sampling you will do in Excel}: shuffle[datos_] :=Module[{pivl,piv2={},indl},pivl=datos; While[Length[pivl]>O,indl=Random[Integer,{l,Lengt h [pi vl] } ] ; AppendTo[piv2 , pivlindl]; pivl=Drop[pivl , {indl , indl}] ; ] ; Return[piv2]] ; pvec=shuffle[Table[i,{i , 0 , 1 , 1.0/5000}]]; agel=cdfTrianginv[# , 11.5 , . 12 , 12.5]&/@. pvec ; . pvec=shuffle[pvec] ; offsetl=trapezCDFinv[# , 15 , 26, 35 , 43]&/@ pvec ; dl=EmpiricalDistribution [offsetl/agel] ; And the slip rate is Plot[CDF[dl,x], {x, 0,4}, Frame~ True, BaseStyle ~ 14, GridLines ~Au tomatic, Framelabel
~~-+{"Slip Rate [mm/yr]", "Cumulative Probability"}]~~
1 0 0 1 2 3 Slip Rate (mm/yrj Dr. Osvaldo Pensado. Group Manager,. Risk Analysis and Performance Assessment Geosciences and Engineering Division (210) 522-6084 opensado@swri .erg
John Stamatakos From:John Stamatakos Sent:29 Apr 2015 16:25:39 +0000 To:'Giacinto, Joseph'
~~Subject:~~
~~RE: Hosgri Sl ip Rates Ok thanks From: Giacinta, Joseph [45] Sent:. Wednesday, April 29, 2015 12:06. PM To: John Stamatakos; Plaza-Toledo, Meralis~~
~~Subject:~~
RE: Hosgri Slip Rates Sounds good to me - thanks. Also, I have your flash drive - you can pick it up (I will leave in the rock ashtray outside my T7C30 office on top of the file cabinet) or I'll give to you next time I see you. Joe From: John Stamatakos [ mailto:jstam@swri.org) Sent:. Wednesday, April 29, 2015 12:03 PM To:. Giacinta, Joseph; Plaza-Toledo, Meralis
~~Subject:~~
RE: Hosgri Slip Rates How about I talk with San antonio today and we can meet tomorrow morning? We can set up a follow up call with them if needed. John From: Giacinta, Joseph [46] Sent: Wednesday, April 29, 2015 12:00 PM To: John Stamatakos; Plaza-Toledo, Meralis
~~Subject:~~
RE: Hosgri Slip Rates John, can we have the call tomorrow - say late morning? Joe From: John Stamatakos [ mailto:jstam@swri.org) Sent: Wednesday, April 29, 2015 11:53 AM To:. Giacinto, Joseph; Plaza-Toledo, Meralis Cc: Munson, Clifford; Ake, Jon;. Jackson, Diane; Stirewalt, Gerry; Seber,. Dogan; Miriam R. Juckett;. Graizer, Vladimir; Hill, Brittain
~~Subject:~~
Hosgri Slip Rates
Joe and Meralis, One of the. more. interesting, and more hazard sensitive, aspects of the Diablo canyon SSC is the Hosgri slip rate CDF. I suggest we focus our initial reviews on. that aspect of the. SSC. Dogan made a critical observation yesterday in our discussions, namely how can the lower tail of the CDF be justified. In thinking through t he question last night I have a few suggestions.
1. We should look at the seismic imaging data from the CCCSIP that PG&E uses to constrain the slip (interpretations of offset paleo-channels). There are 4 piercing points that PG&E uses to develop the composite slip rate CDF for the Hosgri fault. The slip rate data used for these 4 points is summarized in:

a. San Simeon/Oso Terrace - Figure 8-16

b. Point Estero Cross-Hosgri Slope - Figure 8-18

c. Estero Bay Submarine Channel - Figure 8.28

d. Point Sal Channel F - Figure 8.32 For each of these we should understand how the cumulative slip was determined (and uncertainty) and how the offset age was determined (and uncertainty).

1. Age: For San Simeon, the age is based on the interpretation that the unconformity overlying the buried geomorphic featured tied to the Younger Dryas, so this one is rather straightforward. But the other three, especially Estero Bay and Point Sal, ages are based on interpretations of age ranges from the seal level curves. So we will need to understand how the Tl team interpreted the offset parkers in terms of these curves and whether other interpretations outside the ones provided are permissible.

2. Slip: All the slip estimates are based on interpretations of the 2D and 3D seismic images and detailed sea floor bathymetry. I am going to ask my San Antonio team to look over these images from Chapter 8 of the SSC report to help us understand how the images were interpreted and to assess the overall quality of the interpretations. I am also interested in understanding whether the full range of uncertainty is included in the Tl team's interpretations.
We could also ask Cliff and Jon to some sensitivity studies to constrain the limits of what we are looking for. I think it might be helpful here to know how far the current slip rate estimates would have to be different from those. used in the study to move the hazard needle. For example, what if the Tl team were off by a single Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage (MIS)? For most of these my very preliminary guesstimate is. that would correspond to. about a 25% increase. in the slip rates . . Would such. an increase. in rates be significant? I. am going to have a call. with my San Antonio. team this afternoon,. and would be happy to have you both on the call.. Right now the call is set for 3:00 this afternoon, but it can adjusted to meet your schedules.
~~Thanks, John~~
Dr. John Stamatakos Director of Technical Programs Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses (CNWRA) Southwest Research Institute 1801 Rockville Pike, Rockville, MD 20852 301-881-0290 jstamatakos@swri.org
John Stamatakos From:John Stamatakos Sent:29 Apr 2015 16:03:28. +0000 To:'Giacinto, Joseph';Plaza-Toledo, Meralis
~~Subject:~~
RE: Hosgri Sl ip Rates How about I talk with San antonio today and we can meet tomorrow morning? We can set up a follow up call with them if needed. John From: Giacinto, Joseph [47] Sent: Wednesday, April 29, 2015 12:00 PM To: John Stamatakos; Plaza-Toledo, Meralis
~~Subject:~~
RE: Hosgri Slip Rates John, can we have the call tomorrow - say late morning? Joe From: John Stamatakos [ mailto:jstam@swri.org] Sent: Wednesday, April 29, 2015 11:53 AM To:. Giacinta, Joseph; Plaza-Toledo, Meralis Cc: Munson, Clifford; Ake, Jon; Jackson, Diane; Stirewalt, Gerry; Seber, Dogan; Miriam R. Juckett; Graizer, Vladimir; Hill, Brittain
~~Subject:~~
Hosgri Slip Rates Joe and Meralis, One of the more interesting, and more hazard sensitive, aspects of the Diablo canyon SSC is the Hosgri slip rate CDF. I suggest we focus our initial reviews on that aspect of the SSC. Dogan made a critical observation yesterday in our discussions, namely how can the lower tail of the CDF be justified. In thinking through the question last night I have a few suggestions.
1. We should look at t he seismic imaging data from the CCCSIP that PG&E uses to constrain the slip (interpretations of offset paleo-channels). There are 4 piercing points that PG&E uses to develop the composite slip rate CDF for the Hosgri fault. The slip rate data used for these 4 points is summarized in:

a. San Simeon/Oso Terrace- Figure 8-16

b. Point Estero Cross-Hosgri Slope - Figure 8-18

c. Estero Bay Submarine Channel - Figure 8.28

d. Point Sal Channel F - Figure 8.32 For each of these we should understand how the cumulative slip was determined (and uncertainty) and how the offset age was determined (and uncertainty).

1. Age:. For San Simeon,. the age is. based on the interpretation that the unconformity overlying the buried geomorphic featured t ied to the Younger Dryas, so this. one is rather.
straightforward. But the other three, especially Estero Bay and Point Sal~ ages are based on interpretations of age ranges from the seal level curves. So we will need to understand how the Tl team interpreted the offset parkers in terms of these curves. and whether other interpretations outside the ones provided are permissible.
2. Slip: All the slip estimates are based on interpretations of the 20 and 3D seismic images and detailed sea floor bathymetry. I am going to ask my San Antonio team to look over these images from Chapter 8 of the SSC report to help us understand how the images were interpreted and to assess the overall quality of the interpretations. I am also interested in understanding whether the full range of uncertainty is included in the Tl team's interpretations.
We could also ask Cliff and Jon to some sensitivity studies to constrain the limits of what we are looking for. I think it might be helpful here to know how far the current slip rate estimates would have to be different from those used in the study to move the hazard needle. For example, what if the Tl team were off by a single Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage (MIS)? For most of these my very preliminary guesstimate is that would correspond to about a 25% increase in the slip rates. Would such an increase in rates be significant? I am going to have a call with my San Antonio team this afternoon, and would be happy to have you both on the call. Right now the call is set for 3:00 this afternoon, but it can adjusted to meet your schedules.
~~Thanks, John Dr. John Stamatakos Director ofTechnical Programs Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses (CNWRA)~~
Southwest Research Institute 1801 Rockville Pike, Rockville, MD 20852 301-881-0290 jstamatakos@swri.org
John Stamatakos From:John Stamatakos Sent:29 Apr 2015 16:02:21 +0000 To:'Plaza-Toledo, Meralis' Cc:Giacinto, Joseph
~~Subject:~~
~~RE: Hosgri Slip. Rates. OK Ill get a bridge From: Plaza-Toledo, Meralis [mailto:Meralis.Plaza-Toledo@nrc.gov) Sent: Wednesday, April 29, 2015 11:59 AM To: John Stamatakos Cc: Giacinta, Joseph~~
~~Subject:~~
~~RE: Hosgri Slip Rates~~
~~John, I have some meetings in the afternoon but I will try to join the call, it may be a bit late though.~~
Meralis From: John Stamatakos [ mailto:jstam@swri.org) Sent: Wednesday, April 29, 2015 11:53 AM To: Giacinta, Joseph; Plaza-Toledo, Meralis Cc: Munson, Clifford; Ake, Jon; Jackson, Diane; Stirewalt, Gerry; Seber, Dogan; Miriam R. Juckett; Graizer, Vladimir; Hill, Brittain
~~Subject:~~
Hosgri Slip Rates Joe and Meralis, One. of the more interesting, and more. hazard sensitive, aspects of the Diablo canyon SSC is. the Hosgri. slip rate CDF. I suggest we focus our initial reviews. on that aspect of the SSC. Dogan made a critical observation yesterday in our discussions, namely how can the lower tail of the CDF be justified. In thinking through the question last night I have a few suggestions.
~~1. We should look at t he seismic.. imaging data from the CCCSIP that PG&E uses to constrain the slip (interpretations of offset paleo-channels). There are. 4 piercing points t hat PG&E uses. to.~~
~~develop t he composite slip rate CDF for. the Hosgri fault .. The slip rate. data used for these 4 points is summarized in: .~~
a. San Simeon/Oso Terrace - Figure 8-16

b. Point Estero Cross-Hosgri Slope - Figure 8-18

c. Estero Bay Submarine Channel - Figure 8.28

d. Point Sal Channel F - Figure 8.32 For each of t hese we should underst and how the cumulative slip was determined (and uncertainty) and how the offset age was determined (and uncertainty).

1. Age: For San Simeon, the age is based on the interpretation that the unconformity overlying the buried geomorphic featured tied to the Younger Dryas, so this one is. rather straightforward, But the. other three, especially Estero. Bay and Point Sal, ages are based on interpretations of age ranges from the seal level. curves. So we will need to understand how the Tl team interpreted the offset parkers in terms of these curves and whether other interpretations outside the ones provided are permissible.

2. Slip: All the slip estimates are based on interpretations of the 2D and 30 seismic images and detailed sea floor bathymetry. I am going to ask my San Antonio team to look over these images from Chapter 8 of the SSC report to help us understand how the images were interpreted and to assess the overall quality of the interpretations. I am also interested in understanding whether the full range of uncertainty is included in the Tl team's interpretations.
We could also ask Cliff and Jon to some sensitivity studies to constrain the limits of what we are looking for. I think it might be helpful here to know how far the current slip rate estimates would have to be different from those used in the study to move the hazard needle. For example, what if the Tl team were off by a single M arine Oxygen Isotope Stage {M IS) ? For most of these my very preliminary guesstimate is that would correspond to about a 25% increase in the slip rates. Would such an increase in rates be significant? I am going to have a call with my San Antonio team this afternoon, and would be happy to have you both on the call. Right now the call is set for 3:00 this afternoon, but it can adjusted to meet your schedules.
~~Thanks, John Or. John Stamatakos Director of Technical Programs Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses (CNWRA)~~
Southwest Research Inst itute 1801 Rockville Pike, Rockville, MD 20852 301-881-0290 jstamatakos@swri.org
John Stamatakos From:John Stamatakos Sent:29 Apr 2015 17: 11: 17 +0000 To:'Seber, Dogan'
~~Subject:~~
RE: Hosgri Slip Rates. Absolutely. Let me get Joe and Meralis up to speed on the data and some also get some high-level assessments of the seismic images from my guys. Then we can get together to comb through the details a bit and talk about what we should do next. Your insights would be very helpful and appreciated. I'll keep you posted.
~~Thanks, John From: Seber, Dogan [48]~~
~~Sent: Wednesday, April 29, 2015 1:07 PM To: John Stamatakos~~
~~Subject:~~
~~RE: Hosgri Slip Rates~~
John, Thanks for pursuing this . Since I am not part of the Diablo Canyon review team, I have not looked at any of the issues in detail. However, having seen some of the presentations at the SSA meeting last week in Pasadena and seeing what the licensee is doing with slip rates yesterday, I really think there needs to be a special focus in NRC reviews to figure out whether adequate slip rates (not just the PG&E contractors , but also other efforts by USGS etc) are utilized in PG&E PSHA study. As you know, this directly impacts the PSHA results. I am always happy and ready to talk with anyone in more detail, if there is any need.

Best, Dogan Seber, PhD Senior Geophysicist Geosciences and Geotechnical Engineering Branch 1 Division of Site Safety and Environmental Analysis Office of New Reactors U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission w 301-415-0212 From: John Stamatakos [49]
Sent: Wednesday, April 29, 2015 11 :53 AM To: Giacinta, Joseph; Plaza-Toledo, Meralis Cc: Munson, Clifford; Ake, Jon; Jackson, Diane; Stirewalt, Gerry; Seber, Dogan; Miriam R. Juckett; Graizer, Vladimir; Hill, Brittain
~~Subject:~~
Hosgri Slip Rates
Joe and Meralis,. One of the more interesting,. and more hazard sensitive, aspects of the. Diablo. canyon SSC is the Hosgri slip rate CDF. I suggest we focus our initial reviews on that aspect of the SSC. Dogan made a critical observation yesterday in our discussions,. namely how can. the lower tail. of the CDF be just ified. In thinking through the question last night I have a few suggestions.
1. We should look at the seismic imaging data from the CCCSIP that PG&E uses to constrain the slip (interpretat ions of offset paleo-channels). There are 4 piercing points that PG&E uses to develop the composite slip rate CDF for the Hosgri fault. The slip rate data used for these 4 points is summarized in:

a. San Simeon/Oso Terrace- Figure 8-16

b. Point Estero Cross-Hosgri Slope - Figu re 8-18

c. Estero Bay Submarine Channel - Figure 8.28

d. Point Sal Channel F - Figure 8.32 For each of these we should understand how the cumulative slip was determined (and uncertainty) and how the offset age was determined (and uncertainty).

1. Age: For San Simeon, the age is based on the interpretation that the unconformity overlying the buried geomorphic featured tied to the Younger Dryas, so this one is rather straightforward. But the other three, especially Estero Bay and Point Sal, ages are based on interpretations of age ranges from the seal level curves. So we will need to understand how the Tl team interpreted the offset parkers in terms of these curves and whether other interpretations outside the ones provided are permissible.

2. Slip: All the slip estimates are based on interpretations of the 2D and 3D seismic images and detailed sea floor bathymetry. I am going to ask my San Antonio team to look over these images from Chapter 8 of the SSC report to help us understand how the images were interpreted and to assess the overall quality of the interpretations. I am also interested in understanding whether the full range of uncertainty is included in the Tl team's interpretations.
We could also ask Cliff and Jon to some sensitivity studies to constrain the limits of what we are looking for. I think it might be helpful here to know how far the current slip rate estimates would have to be different from those used in the study to move the hazard needle. For example, what if the Tl team were off by a single Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage (MIS)? For most of these my very preliminary guesstimate is that would correspond to about a 25% increase in the slip rates . . Would such an increase in rates. be significant? I am going to have a call with my San Antonio team this. afternoon, and would be. happy to have you both on the. call. Right now the call is. set for 3:00 this afternoon,. but it can adjusted to meet your. schedules.
~~Thanks, John.~~
Dr. John Stamatakos Director of Technical Programs Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses (CNWRA) Southwest Research Institute 1801 Rockville Pike, Rockville, MD 20852 301-881-0290 jstamatakosc@swn .org
Munson, Clifford From:Munson, Clifford Sent:8 Jun 2015 13:32:28 +0000 To:Graizer, Yladimir;Ake, Jon ;John Stamatakos;Stovall, Scott;Brittain Hill ;Weaver, Thomas;Devl in-Gill , Stephanie;Walsh, Lisa;Seber, Dogan Cc:Jackson, Diane
~~Subject:~~
RE: presentation for DCPP on Diablo site term Great. We will have you present after John. Cliff From : Graizer, Vladimir . Sent: Friday, June 05, 2015 3:29 PM To: Munson, Clifford; Ake, Jon; John Stamatkos; Stovall, Scott; Hill, Brittain; Weaver, Thomas; Devlin-Gill, Stephanie; Walsh, Lisa; Seber, Dogan Cc: Jackson, Diane
~~Subject:~~
presentation for DCPP on Diablo site term I used alternative approach. to. estimation of Diablo site term. I can. present my calcs comparing with theirs. at our Wednesday, June 10th meeting. Vladimir
Munson, Clifford From:Munson, Clifford Sent:28 May 2015 10:00:37 -0400 To:Graizer, Yladimir;Jackson, Diane Cc:John Stamatakos;Ake, Jon ;Plaza-Toledo, Merali s;Giacinto, Joseph ;Stovall , Scott;B1ittain Hill;Li, Yong
~~Subject:~~
RE: Reminder sent to Diablo for Information Request Thanks Vlad .. We will ask for this in the next batch of requests to DCPP . . Cliff From : Graizer, Vladimir Sent: Thursday, May 28, 2015 9:54 AM To: Jackson, Diane; Munson, Clifford Cc: John Stamatakos; Ake, Jon; Plaza-Toledo, Meralis; Giacinta, Joseph; Stovall, Scott; Hill, Brittain; Li, Yong
~~Subject:~~
RE: Reminder sent to Diablo for Information Request Diane and Cliff, I. don't know if it is considered an RAI, but as I mentioned at one of the Diablo meetings I need the following info: Section 8.4.1 of the SWUS report discusses evaluation of median base models and their range. Please provide Excel files of the. plots shown on Figures 8.4-17 and 8.4-18 showing comparisons of hazard curves for frequencies of 5 and 0.5 Hz. In addition, please provide similar files for the frequencies of 10 and 1 Hz. Vladimir Graizer, Ph.D. Seismologist Office of New Reactors Mail Stop: T-7F3 Washington, DC 20555-0001 From : Jackson, Diane Se nt: Thursday, May 28, 2015 9:43 AM To: Munson, Clifford Cc: Graizer, Vladimir; John Stamatakos; Ake, Jon; Plaza-Toledo, Meralis; Giacinta, Joseph; Stovall, Scott; Hill, Brittain; Li, Yong
~~Subject:~~
FYI: Reminder sent to Diablo for Information Request Nick sent a reminder. Diane From: Difrancesco, Nicholas Sent: Thursday, May 28, 2015 9: 16 AM To: Philippe Soenen (Pns3@oge.com); Jahangir, Nozar Cc: Michael Richardson (mjrm@oge.com); Strickland, Jearl; Shams, Mohamed; Jackson, Diane; Vega,
Frankie
~~Subject:~~
~~Reminder on Diablo Information Request Philippe, et, al Just a rem inder that the staff is interested in the following references to support NRC review:~~
1) Benchmark files for SWUS-DCPP median ground motion models.

2) ESTA 27 and 28 recordings of Parkfield and San Simeon earthquakes

a. Time histories

b. Response spectra

c. Response spectra adjusted for Vs30

3) Engineering reports describing development of velocity profiles for stations ESTA 27 and 28.

4) Paper. describing WAACY. Magnitude PDF by Wooddell and others.
~~Please let me know when the references will be available.~~
Thanks, Nick Senior Project Manager - Seismic Reevaluation Activities U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation Japan Lesson Learned Project Division nicholas.difrancesco@nrc.gov I Tel: (301) 415-1115
~~Hill ~ Brittain From:Hill, Brittain Sent: 18 Mar 2015 14:33:09 -0400 To:Miriam R. Juckett;.John Stamatakos~~
~~Subject:~~
RE: Seismic. Commun ications Plan Attachments:IBMgetContent.docx Here ya go - same nonpublic restrictions apply as usual. Britt From : Juckett, Miriam R. [50] Sent: Wednesday, March 18, 2015 2:02 PM To: Hill, Brittain
~~Subject:~~
RE: Seismic Communications Plan Britt-Unfortunately, I can't access non-public ADAMS. Can you send me/John a copy separately? Thanks! Miriam From : Hill, Brittain [ mailto:Brittain.Hill@nrc.gov] Sent: Wednesday, March 18, 2015 12:56 PM To: Jackson, Diane; Munson, Clifford; Ake, Jon; Graizer, Vladimir; Seber, Dogan; Stieve, Alice; Plaza-Toledo, Meralis; Devlin-Gill, Stephanie; Weaver,. Thomas; Stovall, Scott; Gerry. Stirewalt; Li,. Yong;. Walsh, Lisa; Heeszel, David; Difrancesco,. Nicholas; John Stamatakos; Miriam R. Juckett Cc: Karas, Rebecca
~~Subject:~~
Seismic Communications Plan We recently updated the Communications Plan for 2.1 seismic to give some Q&A's for WUS topics, including why the review process is a bit different than for the CEUS plants. Many folks (including OPA) have contributed to writing , refining , and agreeing to the answers for these questions, including JLD and DSEA management. Nevertheless, please note that this is an internal use document and not publically available on ADAMS. View ADAMS P8 Properties ML14083A619 Open ADAMS. P8 Document (5/21/2014, Communication Plan for Seismic Hazard Re-Evaluation Submittals in Response to NTTF Recommendation 2 .1, Seismic) Thanks-Britt
Sent: 17 Apr 20 15 03:32:30 +0000 To:Munson, Clifford Cc:Ake, Jon
~~Subject:~~
RE: Source Questions for DCPP visit? Here are some preliminary questions. There is no question that every part of this approach is unique. Diablo Canyon Questions I. Hosgri fau lt: Summarize the key seismic imagi ng , earthquake, geophysical, or geological information used to constrain the slip rate of the Hosgri fault.
2. Thrust faulting: Although the proposed San Luis Range Thrust is not explicitly modeled in the logic tree, can you clarify how elements of the thrust/reverse interpretation are incorporated into the SSC?

3. Fault Slip Rate Model: Can you clarify (maybe by an example) how you extract the "target slip rate budget" from the slip rate CDF, and use it to assign fractional fault slip rates to the multiple fault segments in the fault geometry model (FMG).

4. Funhcr to Q3, can you clarify (again by example) how the slip rate allocation is accomplished among the four different types ruptw*e sources (characteristic, linked, complex, and splay).

5. Rupture Models: Can you clarify how rupture models are derived from the FMGs. The approach seems to be that because reasonable rupture combinations within a rupture. model are included in the logic tree, aleatory variability with a given FGM is then accounted for? But is. there additional epistemic uncertainty in how you constructed the FMGs?

6. . Magintude-frequency~ Explain how the four different magnitude-frequency distribution functional forms were de1ived and how they are used in reference to the characteristic and maximum magnitude distributions?

7. Recurrence: Can you summarize the methodology used to define t11e equivalent Poisson rates?
~~From: Munson, Clifford [Clifford.Munson@nrc.gov] Sent: Thursday, April 16, 2015 2:28 PM To: John Stamatakos Cc: Ake, Jon~~
~~Subject:~~
~~Source Questions for DCPP visit?~~
John, Do you have some source questions that we PG&E to cover other than a basic overview of the SSH AC report?

Thanks, Cliff
~~Sent:6 Apr 2015 2 1:27:00 +0000 To:Alan Morris ;Ronald McGinnis;David Ferrill;Sarah Wigginton Cc:John Stamatakos~~
~~Subject:~~
RE: Work in progress ... Looks pretty good to me. I think is w ill couple n icely to the mega data table. I'd vote. to keep everything for now and. only start pruning if/when we. absolutely have. to. --Kevin From: Alan Morris Sent: Monday, April 06, 2015 3:06 PM To: Ronald McGinnis; David Ferrill; Sarah Wigginton; Kevin Smart Cc: John Stamatakos
~~Subject:~~
RE: Work in progress... OK, it's 8 pages, and maybe too long, but for some reason these reports are always prol ix. Is t his what we need? Does it need pruning? Does it need analysis? Does it need anyth ing? Alan Alan Morris Department of Earth, Material, and Planetary Sciences Geosciences and E ngineering Division Southwest Research Institute 6220 Culebra Road. San Antonio. TX 78238. USA Tel: 210.522.6743 Fax: 210.522.5155 Web page: http://www.swri.org/4org/d20/geosci/structur.htm http://3dstress. s wri .org/ From: Alan Morris Sent: Friday, April 03, 2015 4:51 PM To: Ronald McGinnis; David Ferrill; Sarah Wigginton; Kevin Smart Cc: John Stamatakos
~~Subject:~~
Work in progress...
T:\Diablo Canyon\Diablo Canyon\CNWRA report April 2015\DiabloCanyonPowerPlant - seism ic risk data. survey April 2015.docx I. was planning. to cycle back through. adding important conclusions for. every chapter, but any of us could do that... Chapter 1 is very useful in giving summaries of the data and goals for each of the subsequent chapters. For the tornado diagram,. equations 1-1 and 1-2 in chapter 13 are the key. Gotta check posters for next week ... Happy Easter Alan AJan Morris Department of Earth, Material, and Planetary Sciences Geosciences and Engineering Division Southwest Research Jnstinite 6220 Cule bra Road, San Antonio, TX 78238, USA Tel: 2 10.522.6743 Fax: 210.522.5155 Web page: http://www.swri.org/4org/d20/geosci/structur.htm htcp://3dscress.swri.org/
John Stamatakos From:John Stamatakos Sent: 14 Apr 2015 16:01:32 +0000 To: David Ferrill;Alan Morris;Kevin Smart;Ronald McGinni s;Wesley Patrick;Gordon Wittmeyer;Miriarn R. Juckett
~~Subject:~~
~~Sarah Wigginton~~
David, Just wanted to let you know that the Diablo Canyon work is moving along very well. Many thanks so far to the DEPMs team for your inputs. They have been very helpful. I am especially grateful for Sarah' s work. I've had a few follow-up calls with her and I am so impressed with her and her abilities. We should do all we can to retain her.. She is clearly. out standing.

Thanks, John Dr. John Stamatakos Director of Technical Programs Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses (CNWRA)
Southwest Research Institute 1801 Rockville Pike, Rockville, MD 20852 301-881-0290 jstamatakos@swri.org
Munson, Clifford From:Munson, Clifford Sent: 1 Jun 2015 17 :23 :37. +0000 To:Ake, Jon ;John Starnatakos;Brittain Hill ;Stovall, Scott Cc:Jackson, Diane
~~Subject:~~
~~See added sentence in yellow - thanks! Attachments:DCPP RAI (draft 3).docx Let me know if I captured this correctly.~~
~~Thanks, Cliff~~
~~George. Adams From:George Adams Sent:7 May 2015 11: 12: 17 -0500 To:John. Stamatakos~~
~~Subject:~~
~~SPREA DSHEET~~
John, I found the error just after you left. The worksheet was renamed. It had a few characters following the normal text. The name of the worksheet Hardcoded in the macro and shown in fluorescent green below didn't match the worksheet name.
Worksheets( 'Oso Terrace Ho -George -
Information (602-669/800) is in scope of FOIA and should be released . Alan Morris From:Alan Morris. Sent:22 May 2015 14:50:52 +0000 To:Kevin Smart;Ronald McGinnis;David Ferrill;Sarah Wigginton
~~Subject:~~
Stuff l have done for Diablo Canyon Most of what I have done is in the realm of self-education: T:\Diablo Canyon\APM's stuff\Diablo Canyon-overview-APM.ppt - a work in progress ... T:\Diablo Canyon\Diablo Canyon - Workshop presentations - selected presentations downloaded from: http://www.pge.com/mybusiness/edusafety/systemworks/dcpp/SSHAC/workshops/index.shtml Also, this document is very useful: T:\Diablo Canyon\Diablo Canyon NRC\NTIF DCCP PSHA Review\DCPP SSC Report Rev A.pdf That's all folks --Alan Alan Mo rris Department of Earth, Material, and Planetary Sciences. Geosciences. and Engineering Division Southwest Research Tnstinite 6220. Culebra Road. San Antonio, TX 78238, USA Tel: 210.522.6743 Fax: 210.522.5155 Web page: hnp://www.swri.org/4org/d20/geosci/structur.htm http://3dstress.swri.org/
George. Adams From:George Adams Sent:4 May 2015 16:54:59 -0500 To:John. Stamatakos
~~Subject:~~
~~UPDATE~~
John, I placed an update to the spreadsheet at: S:\John Stamatakos\Slip and Age Distributions GA.xlsm You can change the parameters and hit the calculate button. It does everything: copy, calculate, and sort. I set the calculate options to "Manual" Hitting F9 will force calculate I added pdf plots (not certain about these though, please check)
George
Alan Mon-is From:Alan Morris. Sent:3 Apr2015 2 1:5 1:07 +0000 To:Ronald McGinnis;David FerriU ;Sarah Wigginton;Kevin Smart Cc:John Stamatakos
~~Subject:~~
Work, in progress ... T:\Diablo Canyon\Diablo Canyon\CNWRA report April 2015\ DiabloCanyonPowerPlant - seismic risk data survey April 2015.docx I was planning to cycle back through adding important conclusions for every chapter, but any of us could do that... Chapter 1 is very useful in giving summaries of the data and goals for each of the subsequent chapters. For the tornado diagram, equations 1-1 and 1-2 in chapter 13 are. the. key. Gotta check posters for next week... Happy Easter Alan Alan Morris Departmenr of Earth, Material. and Planetary Sciences Geosciences and Engineering Division Southwest Research Institute 6220 Culebra Road, San Antonio, TX 78238, USA Tel: 2 10.522.6743 Fax: 2 10.522.5 155 Web page: http://www.swri.org/4org/d20/geosci/structur.htm http://3dstress.swri.org/
Informal review ofThe Central Coastal California Seismic Imaging Project (CCCSIP) report (Pacific Gas and Electric Company) By GED April 2015 The Central Coastal California Seismic Imaging Project (CCCSIP) report was produced by the Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) in response to a 2008 recommendation by the California Energy Commission (CEC). The California Energy Commission's 2008 report "An Assessment of California's Nuclear Power Plants: AB. 1632 Report", also known as the. " AB. 1632 Report", recommended that Pacific Gas and Electric perform a series of geophysical investigations to explore fault zones near the Diablo Canyon Power Plant (DCPP). A primary goal of the investigations was to improve understanding of the seismic risk to the Diablo Canyon Power Plant, specifically:
Hosgri Fault Zone slip rate

Hosgri Fault Zone dip

Hosgri-San Simeon fault zone step-over (i.e., are these fau lts linked so that will rupture i n unison?)

Los Osos fault zone slip rate

Los Osos fault zone dip

Los Osos fault zone sense of slip

Hosgri- Shoreline fau lt zone rupture (i.e., are these fau lts linked so that will rupture in unison?)

Shoreline fault zone slip rate

Shoreline fault zone southern extent

Shoreline fault zone segmentation These issues were chosen because of their importance in choosing seismic source parameters used to model the seismic hazard for the Diablo Canyon Power Plant, and because of the uncertainty associated with them. Hazard is expressed as probability of ground motion acceleration exceeding 2 g at the key frequency of 5 hertz . Comment [a1]: t think this Is the frequency 1ha1 is most damaain& to human structures. and ii is part of the NRC's seismic hazard regulation.
Three areas of study were specifically prescribed by the AB1632 report: (1) PG&E should use th ree-dimensional geophysical seismic reflection mapping and other advanced techniques to explore fault zones near Diablo Canyon. (2) As ground motion models are refined to account for a greater understanding of the motion near an earthquake rupture, it w ill be important for PG&E to consider whether the models indicate larger than expected seismic hazards at Diablo Canyon and if so, whether the plant was built with sufficient design margins to continue operating reliably after experiencing these large ground motions. 1
(3) PG&E should assess the implications of a ~an Simeon-type earthquak beneath Oiablo Canyon. Comment [ KJS2 ] : Ooo* lhi* need to be defined/described somewhere or some reference This assessment should include expected ground motions and vulnerability assessments for citatio n provided? safety-related and non-safety related plant systems and components that might be sensitive to long period motions in the near. field of. an earthquake rupture. A range of data is presented and analyzed in the Central Coastal California Seismic Imaging Project report, most of it collected between 2009 and 2014, but including and drawing upon a variety of work performed over the previous 30 years. Work incorporated in the report was performed by PG&E, its contractors, and by the United States Geological Survey. The report is organized into the following sections: Marine seismic reflection surveys (including analysis of natural seismicity data) Chapters 2 and 4 - 20/30 low-energy seismic surveying (LESS) to map t he tAe-Hosgri, Shoreline and Point Buchon fault zones and associated folding west, northwest and north of Oiablo Canyon Power Plant. Chapter.4 includes older. ~deep-penetration seismic data to investigate linkage between Hosgri and San Simeon fau lt zones and folding offshore and south of the Los Osos fault zone. Important conclusions, chapter 2:
* "The main structural elements mapped in the study area are the Hosgri fault zone (HFZ), the Point Buchon fault zone, and a prominent syncline that deforms Tertiary strata in the southern two thirds of the study area." * "The Hosgri fault zone consists of numerous fa ult strands and is the best imaged and most continuous and complex fault zone in the region." * " ... the local style of faulting changes along strike of the Hosgri fault zone. Graben A, bounded by right-stepping strands of the Hosgri fault zone in the north, indicates extensional strike slip faulting. A single fault strand characterizes the fault zone in the center of the study area.
~~Numerous, relatively short strands fan out to the southeast and are associated with folds in the south, indicating compressional strike-slip faulting."~~
* "The Point Buchon fa ult zone, northwest of the centra l segment of the Shoreline fault zone, is a northwest-trending fau lt that disrupts Tertiary strata east of the HFZ" * " ... the Point Buchon fault zone may connect to the central segment of the Shoreline fault zone and associated structures" * "Graben B is associated with the northern end of the Point Buchon fau lt zone" * " ...the structural relationship between the two grabens (A and BJ and structures within Estero Bay to the north of the study area needs to be further evaluated"
~~Because " the 30/20 data are restricted to the shallow subsurface, the mapped surficial faults.~~
cannot be confidently extended to the earthquake hypocentrai depths. Therefore, no conclusion can be made in regard to these faults being the source of the earthquakes that constitute the. northern Shoreline seismicity sublineament" 2
Important conclusions, chap ter 4:
* " ...we w ere unable to observe any clear evidence in the seismic-reflection data for a recent fault connecting the San Simeon fault zone with the Hosgri f ault zone. Our interpretations do not preclude the existence. of a fault at depth or the possibility of. a. future rupture along this fault at depth, including propagation to the surface." * " ... we map the newly named Half Graben fault zone, a series of fa ults along which a half graben has formed, down-dropped on the east and tilted to the west ... The half graben Is narrow In the north ... To the south, the half graben widens considerably and appears to end near ... the Los Osos fault zone" Chapter 3 - 2D/ 3D low-energy seismic surveying (LESS) to identify the southern extent, geometry, connectivity, and slip rate of the Shoreline fault, and the slip rate on the Hosgri fault zone. Older deep penetration data are also used.
~~Importa nt conclusions:~~
* "Pierci ng points identified for constraining offset s along t he Shoreline, Oceano, and Hosgri ~
~~fault zones were identified ... buried paleochannels and paleoshorelines (paleostrandlines) were th e best geomorphic features to use in evaluati ng offsets."~~
* " These studies reveal a more complex (Hosgri) fault zone t han had previously been mapped" * " ...strands of the Hosgri fault zone [in t he Estero Bay area) are generally st eeply dipping t o vertical..." * " ...sense of vertical separation across the Hosgri fault zone [in the Est ero Bay area) is dominantly down to t he west .. ." *. "Channel offsets and thei r Interpreted ages yield a pref erred lateral slip rate for the Hosgri fault zone in Est ero Bay of approximat ely 1.6 +/- 0.8 mm/yr within a high (90%) confidence interval.
~~Accounting for uncert ainties in ages and offset estimates, the ra nge in lateral slip rat e is betw een. approximat ely 0.2 mm/ yr and. 3.6 mm/yr."~~
* [In the Point Sal Area] " The new mapping ... shows that from south to north, t he Hosgri fau lt zone splits from a single strand with little. or no vertical separation to multiple splays with subst antial vertica l and dextral shear, which converge to form a single strand once more .... with t ranst ension in the south and transpression in the north. There is an approximat e 6-degree change in the strike of the Hosgri fault zone..." [ Comment [a 3]: Can you speUr-*H-a-y? * "Channel Complex F provides t he preferred piercing point s fo r estimati ng slip rates on the Hosgri fault zone in t he Point Sal area." * " a minimum estimat ed slip rat e of 0.39 mm/yr (1.4 Ma at 550 m minimum offset) and a maximum estimated slip rat e of 5.07 mm/yr (138 ka at 700 m maximum offset) is calculat ed fo r t he Hosgri fau lt zo ne at Point Sal" Chapter 5 - Deployment and monitoring of ocean bottom seismographs (OBS)
~~Important conclusions: 3~~
* "offshore events close to but outside the ocean bottom seismographs stations will have improved depth control; however, these events are still.subject to.uncertainty, particularly w ith regard to the focal mechanisms."
Chapter 6 - Characterization of the Hosgri fault zone using primarily post 1988 seismic reflection data but also some.gravity and magnetic surveys. A 30 high-energy.seismic survey (HESS). wa s proposed by PG&E, however, the California Coastal Commission denied PG&E's application due to concerns about the environmental impact of these studies. Important conclusions:
"Earlier models. .... that identified. the Hosgri. fault zone. as a major. thrust fau lt underlying the Coast Ranges are not supported by the_(older) high-energy marine 20. seismic-reflection data acquired duri ng the Long Term Seismic Program (LTSP); nor are they supported by potential field and seismicity data collected during the Long Term Seismic Program Update and Central Coastal California Seismic Imaging Project [that's this one) program." * "Geologic observation, seismicity data, and geophysical data all demonstrate that the Hosgri fault zone is a right-lateral strike-slip fault that dips st eeply (75°- 90°) northeast to a depth of Comment [ a4]: It does, however. have slgniflcant evidence of both shortening (where i!'s 12- 14 km in the vicinity of the Oiablo Canyon power plant." strike is more EW than *average") and extension * "evidence for recent fault rupture between the Hosgri and San Simeon fault zones is not well (where it's strike is more NS than "average"). See, imaged in some locations, [although] the data do not preclude the existence of fault linkage at seismogenic depths" rfor example, other conclusion bullets In this document - Chapters 2 and 4. especially, * "Chapter 13 presents a ground-motion hazard sensitivity analysis for the linkage of the Hosgri and San Simeon faults, and a combined rupture of the Hosgri-San Simeon and Shoreline faults" Land. seismic surveys Chapter 7 - Description of the Geologic Mapping Project conducted by PG&E and also reported separately, well data from Honolulu-Tidewater #1, and introduction of natural seismicity, gravity and magnetic data, although the primary data presented in the chapter is 20 accelerated weight-drop (AWD) and a small vibro-seis 30(?) volume of seismic reflection data. Several cross sections are drawn and the Pi smo Syncline is described. The purpose was to evaluate the geometry of the Los Osos, San Miguelito, and San Luis Bay fau lts, as well as illuminate the deeper structure of the Pismo Syncline and the Edna fault system with in the central Irish Hills.
~~Important conclusions:~~
* "The Pismo syncline in the central and southern Irish. Hills is the deformed remnant of a Neogene extensional basin."
The basin was bounded on the north by the Edna fault zone(s), fairly large basin bounding normal faults. The southern margi n of the basin (now the southern limb of the Pismo Syncline) was formed by several. smaller north-dipping normal faults, which have been inverted to reverse faults during synclinal folding. Many of these faults are "blind", i.e. are not exposed at the surface and are interpreted from seismic data.
4
Folds are mappable at the surface.

The overall Int erpretation is one of a negative flower structure th at formed during a transtensional phase of slip, and that was later inverted during transpressional slip.

All faults are interpreted as steeply dipping.
Chapter 8 - 3D seismic reflection survey confined to an onshore area around the Diablo Canyon Power Plant about 3 x 5 km ("Phase 1"), and a small shoreline strip southeast of t he power plant about 3 km long by 0.5 km wide including the Rattlesnake fault at the shoreline ("Phase 2" }. Data collected and analyzed by Fugro. Detailed geologic map of the area around the power plant. The goal was to identify structures that might be significant to seismic hazard analysis of the power plant, and provide Input data Comment [aS]: good exposures of the Obispo Fm and Creta<eous sandstone in the tliffs for ground motion modeling at the power plant site. Important conclusions:
* " ... folding in. buried reflector packages consistent with. out -of-syncline parasitic folding that discordantly detached and shortened Obispo volcaniclastic strat a off of st iffer, relatively undeformed diabase bodies... folding event is old and no longer active, and took place during the compressional uplift event that inverted t he ancestral Pismo Basin into the deeply eroded Pismo syncline." * "Despite differences in elevation between t ime-correlated uplifted terraces, the terraces themselves remain horizontal, indicating that the style of late Quaternary deformation of the western Irish Hills is characterized by rigid block uplift with little or no rotation." * ... [in Phase 1 area] "no throughgoing steep. or vertical reflecto r truncations were observed that wou ld indicate the presence of a significant st eep fault offset. ... Any throughgoing faulting in the reflective depth range of 0 to 0.3 km would have to follow shallow to flat unconformities." * [The updated surface mapping! "shows steep, generally north dippi ng Obispo volcaniclastic strata exposed along Discharge Cove. The tomography indicates that these steeply dipping strata are underlain by a shallowly north-dipping diabase intrusive. Future efforts that would consider the construction of a stratigraphic cross section through the Phase 1 area must be very wary of using only the surface dip data, and should honor the nearly flat-lying subsurface velocity structure as well." * " Three lineaments mapped on the bedrock surface beneath the marine terrace sediments in the Phase 2 area merit investigation as potential faults. In order to directly examine the potential fau lt plane, ground-based investigations of the bedrock platform surface and the overlying Quaternary sediments would be required" Chapter 9 - Results of Geologic Mapping Project, int ended t o help interpretation of onshore seismic reflection data. Data presented includes previously published and unpublished geologic maps plus new data collected in this study. There is a section dedicated to the Los Osos fault zone. One conclusion is:
"new mapping in the vicinity of the Edna, Los Osos, San Luis Bay, San M iguelito, and Shoreline fault zones does not introduce any new hard constraint s on fault location, dip, slip direction, or slip rat e". Data presented in this chapter is also used in chapters 7 and 8. 5
Appendices contain daily field reports, photographs, sample cata logue, an Arc GIS catalogue of shapefiles and other information relating to dat a acquisition and geologic mapping in the Irish Hills, and a compi lation of (primarily) stratigraphic data from 18 of 34 wells {26 oil and 8 hydrogeologic). Important conclusions:
* "Edna and San. Miguelita fault zones-minor changes to the geologic units adjacent t o the faults." * "Los Osos fau lt zone - minor changes to the geologic units adj acent to the fau lt zone, and changes to the depiction of the fau lt zone along the northern margin of the Irish Hills (including removal of the concealed, northwest-trending fault across southern Morro Bay)." * "Shoreline fault zone - minor changes to the geologic units and bedrock faults adjacent to the fau lt zone for the reaches opposite Olson Hill and the Oiablo Canyon power plant." * "San Luis Bay fault zone - minor changes to the geology adj acent to the fault zone along the outer coast from Olson Hill to Rattlesnake Creek, and the addition of a generalized, concealed, and locally quer ied trace in San Luis Obispo Bay and on the outer coast between the Rattlesnake fau lt and the Olson Hill deformation zone."
Geotechnical studies Chapter 10 - provides a 30 shear-wave velocity (Vs) model for the Oiablo Canyon power plant fou ndation area-. Both 30 acoustic compressional -wave velocity (Vp) models and one-dimensional Vs* depth profiles constrained by surface-wave dispersion w ere developed w ith in the Diablo Canyon power plant site. Important conclusions:
~~There is significant spatial variability in V5 ."jf) [shear-wave velocity in the top 30 meters]~~
~~throughout the Diablo Canyon power plant site due to variations in near surface geology.~~
~~The shear-wave-velocity model is used as input int o the Site Conditions Evaluation report in Chapter 11.~~
Chapter.11 - Site conditions evaluation as re levant to the modeling of ground motion at the Oiablo Canyon power plant site. Chapt er 12 - Addresses testimony from Dr. Douglas Hamilton concerning two postulated faults: the Diablo Cove and the San Luis Range/Inferred Offshore faults. In addition to using selected data from Hamilton, a variety of other PG&E reports, and published l iterature, this chapter uses data from chapters 2, 4, 7, 8, and 9 in Central Coastal California Seismic Imaging Project (this) report. Comment ( a6]: This Is a pretty Important chapter that pulls together a number of strands lo refute Hamilton's ideas - whether correctly or Important conclusions: Essentially they conclude that the Diablo Cove fault is a non-issue, and that the Incorrectly I know not at this point... San Lu is Range/Inf erred Offshore fault- although not there - will be accounted for in the ir new seismic source characterization [hmmm). 6
"We conclude tha t the Diablo Cove fault does not represent a seismic hazard to the Olablo Canyon power plant, and there is no basis for considering the Oiablo Cove fault as proposed by Hamilton ... to be ei ther a fault displacement hazard or a seismic source of strong ground motions. We make th is conclusion based on the following key points:

Trench and excavation mapping co nducted prior to construction of the Diablo Canyon power plant documented that t he fault zone is discontinuous, is associated with mi nimal offset, and does not displace marine terrace deposits that are 120 ka . Thus, t he faulting where observed directly is minor and inactive. in t he late Pleistocene.

Geologic mapping and interpretation of multibeam echo sounder imagery do not support connecting the Diablo Cove fault offshore to the. Shoreline fault zone.

I here ts no ba sts for.co rrelat ing seism1city w ith the lJtablo Cove fault based on an evaluation of microearthquake locations and consideration. of their location uncertainty.

The short length of t he Diablo Cove fau lt zone - probably less than half a kilometer- is not consistent with a down-dip width of several kilometers that would extend the fau lt to seismogenic depths.

Structural analysis of geologic data and high-resolution 30 land seismic data at the Oiablo Canyon power plant supports an interpretation, shared by the original mappers of the faults, t hat the fau lting is related to shallow fold deformation and shortening that predates the late Quaternary and probably dates to the Miocene or Pliocene. The fau lti ng may or may not be related to a Miocene diabase intrusion imaged directly north of the north-dipping Oiablo Cove fau lt at shallow depths. Based on this interpretation, the fault extends to only a few tens to hundreds of met ers depth."

We conclude that there is no clear evidence in the available data to support the presence of [the San Luis Range/Inferred Offshore thrust fau lt], and there is evidence that precludes its presence.
Accordingly, there is no basis for conside ring the San Luis Range/Inferred Offshore thrust to be a seismic hazard to the Oiablo Canyon power plant as proposed by Hamilton. We make this conclusion based on the following key points:
Analyses. of multibeam echo sounder. bathymetry data and seismic-reflection data do. not support the interpreted uplift rate boundary across the San Luis Range/Inferred Offshore t hrust fault proposed by Hamilton. Instead, interpret ations of the. dat a. are consistent with a very low or negligible change in uplif t rate where the. San. Luis. Range/Inferred Offshore thrust fau lt is interpreted to impinge on the Shoreline f ault zone and where the SLRF is interpreted to diverge from the Shoreline fa ult zone south of Point Buchon. Interpretations of coastal marine terrace data and offshore marine terraces are consistent w ith uplift rate boundaries that i nstead coincide w ith other structures considered by PG&E in pa st seismic hazard analyses.

We disagree w ith the assertion by Or. Hamil ton that the San Luis Range/ Inferred Offshore thrust fault interpretation is required to fit the observed pattern of coastal terrace uplift and in stead suggest t he observed pattern of coastal upli ft may be matched by several proposed fault geometries, i ncluding those proposed by PG&E in past seismic hazard analyses.
7
~~We disagree with the assertion by Dr. Hamilton that the seismicity data beneath the Irish Hills show a clear alignment supporting the San Luis Range/Inferred Offshore thrust fault at depth.~~
~~The seismicity data can be interpreted in different ways to support many different fault models.~~
Interpretation of land seismic-reflection data do not show evidence for a gently to moderately dipping San Luis Range/Infe rred Offshore thrust fault beneath the southern Irish Hills in the general location proposed by Hamilton. Instead, interpretations of the seismic-reflection data show st eeply north-dipping structures down to approximately 7 km depth or deeper that coincide w ith recognized faults. (the. Irish Canyon and San Luis Bay) at the surface. The interpretation of these steeply dipping structures. to depth. precludes the. presence of the. San Luis Range/Inferred Offshore t hrust fault.

Although the specific San Luis Range/Inferred Offshore thrust fault interpretation by Hamilton is not well supported by the.available. data, and by no means can be held up as a unique or preferred interpretation, the general solution of a primary, north- or north-northeast-dipping fault beneath the Irish Hills is consistent with several observations, and is a possible fault model that should be considered for seismic hazard analysis to the Diablo Canyon power plant. We note that the interpretations by Hamilton are being considered for evaluation and integration with other available data following the Senior Seismic Hazard Ana lysis Committee Level 3 process. The Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee program for the Diablo Canyon power plant, which is bei ng performed under regulatory review by the NRC, is creat ing a new seismic source characterization model.
Chapter 13 - Evaluation of sensitivity of the deterministic ground motions that were presented in the PG&E Shoreline Fault Zone Report (2011) to the seismic source characterizations for the Shoreline and Hosgri fau lts, using new ground motion models developed by the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research (PEER) center as part of their " Next Generation Attenuation" program. Important conclusion:
* "For all the cases considered in this sensitivity study, the 84th percentile ground motions for the power-block and turbine-building foundation levels are bounded by the 1977 Hosgri spectrum."
[In other words, their former analysis is not affected by any of the new data/interpretations.] Chapter 14 - The find ings and conclusions of the Central Coastal California Seismic Imaging Project report [this one). Important conclusion:
* "These studies confirm previous analyses that the plant and its major components are designed to withstand-and perform their safety functions during and after-a major seismic event."
8
Evaluation of the Constraints. for the Hosgri Fault Slip Rate Stress Conditions in the Irish Hills Region: Transpressional with north-northeast orientation of maximum compression Faults in the region with a northwest strike typically have dextral slip Faults in the region with an easterly strike (or perpendicular to maximum compression) typically have a reverse sense of slip Strike-slip faults have a rake of :S30° Reverse and reverse oblique faults have a rake of 90°+/-60° Hosgri Fault Zone: First studied by Wolf and Wagner (1970) and Hoskins and Griffith (1971) .. lt is part of the larger San Gregorio-San Simeon-Hosgri faulc system (410 km long). The Hosgri segment is approximately J 10 km lo ng and was mapped using multichannel seismic-reflection (O&G) data to a depth of l .5-3 km (Willingham et al.,. 2013). Offshore from Diablo Canyon, the. Hosgri was remapped using single-channel, high resolution USGS sparker data (Johnson and Watt, 2012) in order to provide better near-surface resolution of the fau lt trace. At its northern tip the Hosgri is linked to the San S imeon fault across a poor seismically imaged region interpreted to be either (i) a zone of transtensional normal faults in a right-releasing step-over (PG&E, 1988) or (ii) the Hosgri bends westward at this point and steps over the San S imeon fault across a zone of northwest-trendi ng faults to the north (PG&E, 20 14). Fun Facts: Convergent right-lateral (transpressional) fau lt with late Quaternery slip rate of 1-3 mm/year Johnson and Watt (2012) confirmed this sense of motion on the Hosgri in the cunent stress. regime Fault zone is up to 2.5 km wide directly offshore of Diablo Canyon. T he fault trends N25°W to N30°Wand is. locally coincident with the shelf break. Fault dip vaiies from vertical to steeply dipping in the near surface data and in the multi-channel data it dips steeply at a depth of -J km. Focal mechanisms along the Hosgri show nearly pure strike-slip. on a near-vertical. co steeply. east-dipping (-75°) fault at a depth of 12 km (McLaren and Savage, 2001). Constraints on the Hosgri: Deformed mari ne terraces on the San Simeon fault (onshore) are used to constrain the. assessment of horizontal slip on the Hosgri. The Cross-Hosgri slope was identified to estimate the Pleistocene-Holocene slip on rate on the Hosgri. Offset channels in the southern Estero Bay were used to constrain slip rates on the northern end of the Hosgri
Offset channels in southern Point Sal were used to constrain slip rates on the southern end of the Hosgri These constraints have provided an estimate of 2 mm/year of right-lateral slip, which is consistent with regional geodetic data showing - 2 mm/year of plate-margin lateral shear in the region (DeMets et al., 2014). In addition, the slip rate should vary no11h to south (Hanson et al., 2004; Johnson et al. , 2014) depending on the number of fault intersecrions along it<> trace. The northern and middle sections of the Hosgri should have a higher slip rate than tbe southern due to fewer faults intersecring tbe Hosgri as you move south along its trace. San Simeon Fault Slip Rate: The San Simeon projects into the Hosgri and the offset and sl ip rate on that fault are considered represenrarive of the Hosgri. Field mapping of terraces on either side of the San Simeon fault and over 100 boreholes, numerous trenches, and soil pit excavations were used to delineate altitude. and distribution of terrace remnants (Hall et al. , 1994; Hanson and Lettis, 1994). This was performed in order to constrain the style and slip rate of deformation along the onshore San Simeon fault zone. Cross-Hosgri Slope Slip Rate: To be added Estero Bay Slip Rate: Estero Bay contains two dominate strands of the Hosgri Fault zone (Figure 8-24 in 2014 PG&E report). The Hosgri in this area marks the boundary between active tectonics to the cat and minor subsidence to the west. PG&E identified (Chapter 3 in 2014 PG&E report) multiple channel segments in upper continental slope sediments. Of all the channels PG&E identified only the Channel Complex De as a viable strain marker because it seems to conelate across. the. Hosgri to Channel Eel (Figure 8-25 and Plate 3 in Chapter 3 in 2014 PG&E report). Based on these markers, it was estimated that right-lateral separation was 260+/-60 m and vertical separation was 40+/-8 m down to the west. Point Sal Slip Rate: To be added
~~References:~~
Demets, C., Marquez-Azua, B., Cabral-Cano, E., 2014. A new GPS velocity field for the Pacific Plate - Part 2: implication for fau lt slip rates in western California. Geophysical Journal Tntrernations 199 (3) 1900-1909. Hanson, K.L., Lenis, W.R., McLaren, M.K., Savage, W.U., and Hall, N.T., 2004. Style and rate of Quaternary deformation of the Hsogri fault zone, offshore south-central California: in Keller, M .A. (editor), Evolution of Sedimentary Basin/Onshore Oil and Gas Investigations-: Santa Maria Province. U.S. Geological Survey Bulletin 1995-BB, 33 pp.
Hoskins, E.G. and Griffiths, J.R., 1971. Hydrocarbon Potential of Northern and Central California Offshore: Region 2: in Cram, 1.H. (editor), Future Petroleum Provinces. of the United States-Their Geology and Potential , Vol. 1, American Association of Petroleum Geologists Memoir 15, pp. 2 12-228. Johnson, S.Y., and Watt, J.T., 2012. Influence of fault trend, bends, and convergence on sbalJow structure and geomorphology of the Hosgri strike-slip fault, offshore central California, Geosphere 8 (6): 1632-1656. Johnson, S.Y., Hartwell, S.R., and Dartnell, P., 2014. Offset of latest Ple istocene shoreface revea slip rate on the Hosgri strike-slip fault, offshore central California, Geospbere 8 (6): 1632-1656. I Willingham, C.R., Rietman, J.D ., Heck, R.G., and Lett.is, W.R., 2013. Characterization of the Hosgri Fault Zone and adjacent structures. in the offshore. Santa Maria Basin, southcentral California: in Keller, M.A. (editor) , Evolution of Sedimentary Basins/Onshore Oil and Gas Investigations-Santa Maria Province, U.S. Geological Survey Bulletin 1995-CC. I 05 pp. Wolf, S.C., and Wagner, H.C., 1970. Preliminary Reconnaissance Marine Geology of Area Between Santa Lucia Escarpment and Point Buchon, California, unpublished U.S. Geological Survey administrative report, 5 pp.
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ML16054A013: Difference between revisions

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