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Rev 0 to AES 98033327-1-1, Updated Probabilistic Operational Assessment for SONGS Unit 2,Second Mid Cycle Operating Period,Cycle 9
	ML20248B922
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Site:	San Onofre
Issue date:	04/30/1998
From:	Begley C, Begley J; APTECH ENGINEERING SERVICES
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ML20248B896	List: ML20248B892; ML20248B898; ML20248B922;
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	AES-98033327-1, AES-98033327-1-1-R, AES-98033327-1-1-R00, NUDOCS 9806020018
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{{#Wiki_filter:1 k l APPENDIX 2 l 1 APTECH ENGINEERING SERVICES REPORT l l l i ^ 9806020018 980526 PDR ADOCK 05000361 P PDR t

o (fd V EAST M L E E IS APPLIEDTECHNOLOGY AES 98033327-1-1 RevlSion 0 April,1998 AN UPDATED PROBABILISTIC OPERATIONAL ASSESSMENT FOR SONGS UNIT 2, SECOND MID CYCLE OPERATING PERIOD, CYCLE 9 Prepared by J. A. Begley C. J. Begley APTECH ENGINEERING SERVICES, INC. PITTSBURGH OFFICE Prepared for Southern California Edison Company San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station San Clemente, CA 92674 APTECH ENGINEERING SERVICES,INC. 200 FLEET STREET O SUITE 1020 0 PITTSBURGH O PA 15220 O (412) s20-es33 O FAX (412) 9204644 HEADQUARTERS O SUNNYVALE, CA O (408) 745-7000 HOUSTON.TX O (281) 558-3200 0 ATLANTA, GA O (770) 7813758 BETHLEHEM, PA O (sto) 866-7347 O CHARLOTTE. NC D (704) 865-6318 CHATTANOOGA, TN O (423) 499-3777 O WASHINGTON, DC O (301) 868 4899

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'4 4 4 I l 1 I 6 6 .t d NOTICE , This report was prepared by Aptoch Engineering Services, Inc. (APTECH) as an account of work p " sponsored by the organization named herein. - Neither APTECH nor any perron acting on behalf of {' ' APTECH:. (al makes any warranty, express or implied,.with respect to the use of any information, -apparatus, method,' or process disclosed in this report or that such use may not infringe privately owned rights; or (b) assumes any liabilities with respect to the use of, or for damages resulting from [ the use of any information, apparatus, methods, or process disclosed in this report. t t k

I ~). L 'i l7 t 1 TABLE OF i CONTENTS i i Section Eagg 1 { EXECUTIVE

SUMMARY

ii 1' INTRODUCTION 1 2 .. AXIAL CRACK STRUCTURAL INTEGRITY J AND LEAK RATE MODELS 4 3 ANALYSIS INPUT PARAMETERS 14 J 4 PROBABILISTIC MODEL 26 5 STRUCTURAL MARGIN AND LEAKAGE EVALUATIONS 31 i 6

SUMMARY

AND CONCLUSIONS 44 l s REFERENCES 46 ) i e 1 1 1 J 't J l l l i l - Aptech Engineering Services, Inc. AES98033327d

P '*'e .s 1 i . EXECUTIVE

SUMMARY

An updated probabilistic operational assessment of steam generator. tubing in ? SONGS Unit 2 was conducted following a mid cycle,100% bobbin probe }- eddy current inspection after O.76 EFPY of operation in cycle 9. - A previous analysis' demonstrated that a mid cycle eddy current inspection of the top of-the tubesheet region was not required. Axial and circumferential degradation. in this area is prudently managed with end of cycle inspections using a'Plus l'1

j Point probe.

A mid cycle bobbin probe inspection monitored the development of axial corrosion degradation at. freespan and eggerate -I locations. Inspection results were used to check and update projections for the following degradation mechanisms: a Axial freespan degradation y e J Axial ODSCC/lGA at eggerate intersections e Axial PWSCC at eggerate intersections j As in the past, a Monte Carlo computer model was used to simulate the processes of crack initiation, crack growth and detection via eddy current i j inspections over multiple cycles of operation. This allowed calculation of both the conditional probability of tube burst at postulated steam line break j conditions and expected leak rates. Comparison of projected and observed degradation severity provided a check of the simulation model. .L Observed worst case degradation severity compared well with earlier q projections for - all types of axial degradation. Earlier projections of j conditional' probability of tube burst are considered to be conservative. ' Aptoch Engineering Services, Inc. AES98033327-1 . l.a 1 j

i (.l i However, the number of freespan indications was under predicted. This was caused by an assumption of an unduly conservative crack growth rate } distribution and an' improved probability of detection of degradation. Corresponding parameters have been updated and projections of axial corrosion degradation at eggerate and freespan locations for the next 1.24 ] EFPY of operation have been developed. s The condWonal probability of tube burst, given a postulated steam line break after an additional 1.24 EFPY of operation in Cycle 9 is less than 0.01 for l' each of the corrosion mechanisms. The largest contributor is axial PWSCC ] at eggerate intersections, with a value of 0.0043. The figures of merit per the new draft Regulatory Guide on Tube !ntegrity: are O.01 for any single mechanism and a total of 0.025 for all mechanisms combined. The results i - 1 of previous analyses for axial and circumferential corrosion degradation at the top of the tubesheet region plus the present updated projections for eggerate -l and freespan locations demonstrate that required structural and leak rate margins will be maintained for the remainder of the Cycle 9 operating period. l ) I l 1 l ! l l-i: ' Aptoch Engineering Services, Inc. AES98033327-1 ni i c 1 1 i

i i . Section 1 4 INTRODUCTION t An updated probabilistic operational assessment of steam generator tubing in - [ . SONGS Unit 2 was conducted for the remainder of Cycle 9. Three modes of corrosion degradation were considered: Axial freespan degradation; e }, Axial ODSCC/lGA at eggerate tube supports; J e Axial PWSCC at eggerate tube supports. ? -e. The results of a 100% bobbin probe inspection after 0.76 EFPY of operation in Cycle 9 were used to' monitor the progression of axial degradation at eggerate and freespan locations and to check and update previous analyses for the remainder of the Cycle 9 operating period. 4-l The onset of axial and circumferential corrosion degradation was observed in - j --' SONGS 2 steam generator tubing after about 7.17. EFPY of operation. Circumferential and axial degradation at the top of the tubesheet has been y observed using the RPC eddy current probe prior to Cycle 8, and the Plus Point probe thereafter. Degradation is present on both inside and outside tube - diameters. Previous projections for the top-of-tubesheet region demonstrated that required structural and leak rate margins will be maintained for_ full cycle operation.- Therefore, no mid cycle inspection of . this region was performed. iL Aptoch Engineering Services, Inc. AES98033327-1 1 je L- )

,o Axial corrosion degradation at freespan and eggerate regions has been ~ detected with the bobbin probe. Eggerate axial degradation has been observed on both the inside and outside tube diameters, the ID degradation in these regions being generally coincident with dented tubes. The presence of the eggerate. tube supports, and to a greater degree, tube deformation in the oggerate regions, tends te make crack detection more difficult using the bobbin probe. The simulation model employed in this work accounts for 3 potential. inspection difficulties. Pulled tube test data confirmed that d freespan axia! OD corrosion degradation was not particularly severe. In fact, near virgin tube burst pressures were observed. The mid cycle inspection was warranted by axial PWSCC at some eggerate locations. An updated evaluation of the contribution of cr sion degradation to the conditional probability of tube burst at postulated steam line break conditions and determination of the upper bound leak rates expected during postulated 5 l accident condition. form the main objectives cf the work described in this report. The new draft Regulatory Guide on Tube Integrity: has established 'k acceptable values for the conditional probability of tube burst at SLB i -j conditions as a measure of required structural margins. Accident-induced leak rates are calculated for comparison with the site-specific acceptable value. The basic calculational technique employed is one of simulating the 1 4 processes of crack initiation, crack growth and detection via eddy current inspection using Monte Carlo methods". The Monte Carlo simulation model follows 'these processes over multiple cycles of operation. This allows ' benchmarking of the model by comparing calculated results for past inspections with actual observations. The recent Cycle 9 mid cycle bobbin Aptech Engineering Services,'inc. AES98033327-1

probe inspection results are used to check and update projections for degradation at eggerate and freespan locations for the remaining operating period. The simulation model tracks both detected and undetected populations of cracks and derts with actual crack sizes. When comparisons are made between calculated results and eddy current observations, an eddy { current measurement error is applied to convert predicted real crack sizes to predicted eddy current observations. Actual degradation conditions in terms of number of cracks, real crack f depths and lengths can be calculated for any selected time period. Hence, the conditional probability of burst at postulated steam line break conditions can be computed for the operating time of interest. Leak rate during such a postulated accident can be calculated from the simulated numbers and sizes of cracks. ? in the next section, a description of the methods of characterizing crack L [ shapes and critical dimensions for axial cracking is presented. This is followed by explanations of burst pressure and leak rate calculations. Next, input to the Monte Carlo simulation programs is defined, and the simulation steps are discussed. Finally, the updated conditional probability of burst and f leak rate results for the remainder of the Cycle 9 operating period at SONGS Unit 2 are presented. Aptech Engineering Services, Inc. AES98033327-1 i __m_.m_-__._m__

7 I.. SECTION 2 AXIAL CRACK STRUCTURAL INTEGRITY AND LEAK RATE MODELS Burst strength and leak rate calculations for tubes. exhibiting axial corrosion degradation are based upon idealized crack profiles. Axial degradation is "modeled as planar cracking. The planar crack assumption is conservative for j use in burst and leak rate calculations. The following paragraphs describe idealized morphologies for axial cracks and corresponding burst and leak rate 3 d equations. ' Note that the pattern of throughwall crack development in tile. leak rate model has been modified compared to earlier reports *. This modification makes calculated leak rates more conservative. 2.1 Idealized Axial Crack Profiles From the perspective of tube burst strength and leak rate calculations, each axial corrosion indication is idealized as a single planar crack. This is ,f_ conservative in that the strengthening and leak limiting effects of ligaments between crack segments in physical crack arrays are neglected. In addition, j the physical depth profile, which typically varies in a non-uniform fashion over the length of the crack, is modeled as a simplified ideal profile for burst and leak calculations. Figure 2.1 illustrates the idealized crack profiles used for burst and leak calculations, compared to the corresponding physical depth profile as measured'during a pulled-tube destructive examination. The idealized burst . profile represents the portion of the physical profile that is structurally significant in computing burst. pressure. The structurally significant l Aptoch Engineering Services, Inc. AES980333271 i r j -L___-___

1. dimensions are determined using the Structural Minimum Method", as follows. The physical profile is discretized over its length using a reasonable. number of segments, typically between 20 and 50. For each contiguous portion of the crack (that is, for each potential structurally significant length segment), a corresponding depth is computed by equating the areas under the' physical and ideal profiles. Each length and depth pair is then tested using..the Framatome burst equation' (described below) to find the ~ 1 dimensions that minimize the computed burst p. essure. The length and depth that minimize the burst pressure represent the structurally significant dimensions, and hence define the idealized burst profile. It is essential to note that historical measurements have shown that structurally significant length of a crack to be reasonably estimated by the portion of a physical crack length detected by a. rotating pancake coil eddy current probsd#. The axial length detected by the Plus-Point eddy current probe is a - conservative estimate of the actual structurally significant crack length. { The idealized leak profile itagth is identical to the structurally significant length computed for the burst profile. The tent-shaped leak profile is then j determined by equating the maximum depth penetration for both physical 1 and ideal profiles,-and by again balancing the areas under the respective profiles over the structural length. The profile form factor, F, is defined to be the ratio of the maximum depth, d,n,,, to the structurally significant depth, d,,. The distribution characteristics of this form factor are based on pulled ) - tube destructive examination data 8dd. See Figure 2.2. 1 i l Crack growth over time is assumed to occur primarily in the depth direction. 'The structural length for both burst and leak profiles is considered to be constant in time. Compared to previous calculations, an element of Aptech Engineering Services, Inc. AES98033327-1 [. I'

i l ;. l I conservatism has been added to the leak rate model. In contrast to the earlier leak model*, the form factor is assumed to remain constant only until wall penetration occurs. Then, as the crack propagates throughwall, as shown in Figure 2.3, the inclined sidec of.the crack rotate outward until a limiting throughwall length equal to the structural length is reached. The incremental area of crack advance per unit time created by the rotating crack sides is equal to the specified average depth crack growth rate. The length of the throughwall segment, L,,,,, is then defined by the geometry of the ~ idealized profile to be: d, - t i leak " n tSF 2.2 Axial Crack Burst Pressure Calculation Given the structurally significant length and depth dimensions, the burst pressure for an axially degraded tube is computed via the Framatome (Cochet et. al.)' partial throughwall burst equation: .1 ~ ] O.58St Ld It P= 1 L + 2t R, L where Pis the estimated burst pressure, S the sum of the yield and ultimate i tensile strength of the tube material, t the tube thickness, R, the inner radius of the tube, L the characteristic degradation length, and d the characteristic degradation depth. The Framatome equation, when used with the structurally significant dimensions (L,, and d,,), produces consistently conservative burst pressure estimates compared to measured burst data, as Aptech Engineering Services, Inc. AES980333271 i -m_____

3, shown in Figure 2.4. It is an excellent lower bound to an extensive set of l/ pulled tube burst test data. 1 1 2.3 Axial Crack Leak Rate Calcu'ation As described in Reference 10, Version 3.0 of the PICEP two-phase flow algorithm was used to compute flow rates through cracks as a function of pressure differential (p), temperature (7), urack opening area (A), and total } throughwall crack length (L). Friction effects and crack surface roughness were included in the model. Steam line break, room temperature, and normal f operating condition leak rates calculated by PICEP were fitted to regression equations. The PICEP-based leak rate regression equation for steam line break conditions is given as: 0 = (a + b exp (c (A/L)*"' + d (A/L) J} A p'*"', where a-d are regression coefficients as determined by an analysis of PICEP results. The leak rate O is expressed in terms of gallons per minute at room } temperature (70'F). To convert to gallons per minute at any other temperature, the calculated O is multiplied by the ratio of the specific volume of water at temperature (7) to the specific volume of water at 70*F. The 2 pressure, p, is in units of psi, A is in inches and L (equivalently Lw as defined above) is in inches. The crack opening area is calculated using a twice-iterative plastic zone correction to adjust the linear elastic solution for plasticity effects. Further details of the PICEP regression equations and the crack opening area derivation can be found in References 11,12,13 and 14. A check of the validity of the leak rate equations is provided by a comparison of calculated leak rates versus measured leak rates listed in Reference 13. Aptech Engineering Services, Inc. AES98033327-1

1 Measured leak rates at typical normal operating steam generator conditions are available for axial fatigue cracks in steam generator tubing and axial stress corrosion cracks in steam generator tubing. Leak rates through stress corrosion cracks are less than those through fatigue cracks of the same I length because of the more torturous cracking in stress corrosion samples. A i good conservative leak rate calculation methodology _is considered to be one which is a closer match to leak rate results from fatigue cracks rather than stress corrosion cracks. Figure 2.5 shows that this criteria is met by the ~ chosen methodology. Calculated leak rates, illustrated by the dotted lines, I serve as a good bound to data from stress corrosion cracked samples of the i same tubing dimensions. The calculated leak rates are just below the measured data for fatigue cracked samples. 4' .m .n l i l l l Aptech Engineering Services, Inc. AES980333271

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8 \\ a a V o k M M M M w a u u ] cmcklength (a) 9 A .} e m amax J e r. .e e ( a v m a = = w a u a J cmcklength (b) Figure 2.1 Idealized Crack Profiles for (a) Burst and (b) Leakage. Aptech Engineering Services, Inc. AES980333271 g l

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i 30 i e 1 20 l I l i l 10 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Structural Depth, %TW Figure 2.2 Maximum Depth Versus Structurally Significant Depth, Pulled Tube Data. Aptech Engineering Services, Inc. AES98033327-1

j. i 1 I l l I i J L,,, i g 'I A t i } v ) 1 n Figure 2.3 Idealized Leakage Crack Profile After Throughwall Penetration. Aptech Engineering Services, Inc. AES980333271

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= OCC Unit 1 A l o ONS Unit 2 0, i a SONGS Unit 2 B 10000 1 e i o s j i8*o j J*., ca l dLo ' O e o a 3 6000 l v O, j 'o O i bo a& o a li os o so l e i ~- i 4000 J g a f A i 2000 e, ) l 0 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 Measured Burst Pressure, psi . Figure 2.4 Calculated Versus Measured Burst Pressure Using the Structural Minimum Method and the Framatome Burst Equation. Aptech Engineering SerAces, Inc. AES98033327-1 1 12 j

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0.1 1 1 CRACK LENGTH, INCHES Figure 2.5 Calculated and Measured Leak Rates for Axial Cracks in Alloy 600 Tubing at Normal Operating Conditions. Aptech Engineering Services, Inc. AES98033327-1

=a Section 3 ANALYSIS INPUT PARAMETERS A: number of input parameters are needed for the Mcate Carlo simulation i model. - A range of material properties is considered rather than a lower . bound strength-value. Hence the distribution of tensile properties of. the steam generator tubing is needed. The distribution of structurally significant - axial crack lengths is equated to the distribution of measured lengths as t found by the RPC eddy current probe. Thus a sampling distribution of axial crack lengths is needed. The simulation model conducts virtual inspections. This requires knowledge of the probability of detection of degradation as a function of degradation severity for the various addy current probes that are .used.' Since degradation growth is simulated, distributions of crack growth rates for both axial and circumferential degradation are required. ] 3.1 Tubing Mechanical Properties 1 Figure 3.1 shows a histogram of tube strength for both steam generators at ] SONGS Unit 2. - An adjustment has been made to correct for operating. temperature. A normal-distribution was fitted to the data of Figure 3.1 for ij. application in the simulation model. This distribution was truncated at the measured extremes of the tensile property database. .1 3.2 Degradation Length Distribution j j During the recent mid cycle eddy current inspection at SONGS Unit 2, crack ] length measurements were recorded for axial degradation at various locations' in the steam generators. Experience has shown that length measurements 1 .made with lthe.Plus Point probe tend to over-estimate the structurally Aptoch Engineering Services, Inc. AES98033327-1 I i 4 O___.__Z________~_.__.___=__

I significant portion of a crack; hence a best-fit length distribution based on the Plus Point measured lengths adds a degree of conservatism to the simulation. However, this degree of conservatism is grossly unrealistic for a freespan axial ODSCC/lGA, as verified by pulled tube burst tests. Therefore, the Plus Point determined eggerate crack length distribution is applied in analyses of freespan degradation. Figure 3.2 shows a plot of the cumulative distribution function used as a crack length sampling distribution. It is based ~ on a log normal fit to the eggerate Plus Point data from EOC 8. Data for the .J. mid cycle inspection also is plotted. Figure 3.2 shows that the modelling assumption of a constant distribution of EOC crack lengths, independent of the cycle length, is justified. 3.3 Detection Capabilities of Eddy Current Probes in Monte Carlo simulations, a probability of detection (POD) function is used to model the detection capability of an eddy current probe. Because the effectiveness of the eddy current probe dictates the percentage of cracks that are able to grow deep enough to threaten the structural integrity of the steam generator, it is important to employ a POD function that accurately reflects actual inspection practices. In the past, it has been the standard j practice of APTECH to select a worst case POD curve. Calculations of the .I conditional probability of tube burst are dominated by the probability of missing a deep crack and the probability of encountering a large crack growth rate. It is the tails of the POD curves and crack growth rate distributions that dominate probability of burst calculations. However, there are certain situations where conservative choices of POD curves and crack growth rate distribution.s result in under predictions of the number of cracks while still yielding conservative probability of burst calculations. This is l l Aptech Engineering Services, Inc. AES98033327-1

j discussed further in Section 5. ' This circumstance led to a raview cnd reevaluation of POD curves, as presented below. Freespan and eggerate regions were inspected using a bobbin probe at both EOC 8 and the Cycle 9 mid cycle outage. Destructive examinations were i performed on three pulled tubes fiom SONGS Unit 2 at EOC 8. Burst and leak rate tests were conducted along with extensive metallographic sectioning. Crack depth versus length profiles were determined on burst test crack faces. Maximum crack depths were evaluated at the numerous c locations of transverse metallographic sections. This information, when f combined with the results of analyses of field eddy current data allowed the construction of curves of probability of detection versus crack depth. Analyst performance in detecting freespan axial ODSCC/lGA at SONGS Unit 2 using bobbin probe eddy current data was evaluated with a supplemental performance demonstration test. Destructive examination data from the SONGS pulled tubes provided a direct measure of the presence and severity e of axial degradation. The detection performance of five teams of analysts in I a blind test using SONGS field eddy current data was used to construct the P log logistic probability of detection curves of Figure 3.3. In the previous 1 analysis of freespan ODSCC/lGA at SONGS Unit 2, the worst case Team E l POD curve was used. Note that the other four teams were better in a detecting both large and small cracks. In terms of predicting the numbers of indications, the most appropriate bobbin POD curve for the mid cycle inspection is the average curve of the SONGS supplemental performance demonstration test. For conditional probability of burst calculations this is slightly unconservative since one or two analyst teams may be equivalent to ' Team E. Actual calculations demonstrated that consideration of this Aptech Engineering Services, Inc. AES98033327-1 1 I 1

.o .t I possibility did not change the computed results within the accuracy of the stated values in Section.5. - The review and reevaluation of bobbin POD curves led to the conclusion that i the appropriate POD curve for the axial ODSCC/lGA' inspections of EOC 8 is I one based on data submitted for Appendix H qualification by St. Lucie Unit 1'. In the present analysis, this POD curve was used for both axial freespan ODSCC/lGA and axial ODSCC/lGA at eggerate. support crevices. It is the ~ middle POD curve of Figure 3.4. This curve has been used in many previous analyses and is very similar to a recent POD curve developed through review of a large pulled tube database mostly devoted to axial degradation at drilled tube support plate intersections. The selected curve has a conservative tail with a moderate mid range detectability. The bobbin POD curve used in the analysis of both freespan and eggerate support crevice ODSCC/lGA at the mid cycle inspection is the average curve of the SONGS supplemental .4 performance test. It is plotted in Figure 3.4 and is the first curve on left with the best detection properties. I

1 It is recognized that eddy current signals from eggerate supports can add to 1

~ the difficulty of detecting degradation in these locations. In this sense POD I curves for freespan ODSCC/lGA can be expected to be somewhat better .) than those for ODSCC/lGA at support structures. Sensitivity studies have f shown' that, in the context of the present ODSCC/lGA analysis with the observed numbers of indications and growth rate distribution, there was no I observable impact of changes in POD curves of a magnitude likely to be associated'with the presence or absence of tube support structures. In l contrast, when PWSCC is observed at support structure locations, the j interaction of tubes with these structures is a defining consideration. Aptech Engineering Services, Inc. AES98033327-1 i

r p, - PWSCC ~at eggerate support locations implies the presence of straining beyond the yield point. This does not mean necessarily that a dent should be detected. Strains sufficient to lead to PWSCC can be developed as corrosion of eggerate supports leads-to tube deformation. Tube deformation, which can be relatively slight, can be difficult to detect. Naturally, as deformation 4 becomes larger, denting is detected. The largest PWSCC crack detected at [ EOC 8 was not associated with a detected dent. However, the presence of PWSCC denotes a deformed tube and an associated penalty in bobbin probe l detection properties. Thus PWSCC is. associated with " denting' whether .i detected or not. The construction of a penalty factor to be applied to an ODSCC/lGA POD' curve is done empirically. In the previous analysis, the basic ODSCC POD curve was translated with the same shape to larger depths until model projections of a severely degraded PWSCC eggerate location crack at EOC 8 matched the inspection and pulled tube test results. F in the present analysis, both the location and shape of the ODSCC POD curve was altered to obtain a match with mid cycle crack severity. The 3 I PWSCC POD curve of Figure 3.4 has a conservative tail and is translated to larger depths compared to the ODSCC/lGA POD curves. + { Historically, bobbin probe detection and sizing capability has been referenced to maximum degradation depths. As noted in Section 2, the structurally significant average depth is the parameter of interest for burst pressure prediction. Figure 2.2 shows the relationship of structurally significant depth l to maximum axial crack depth. ' The typical ratio of maximum to structura! i depth'is~1.28. This factor was used to convert maximum depth to structural l ' depth in construction of the probability of detection curves. l l Aptoch Engineering Services, Inc. AES98033327-1 x _ _. _._-

l 7 j l 3.4 Degradation Growth Rates 1 - During the simulation process, crack growth rates are sampled from a distribution of crack growth rates._ In the previous SONGS Unit 2 analysis a single crack growth' rate distribution was used for axial degradation regardless of location. It was the most aggressive crack growth rate I distribution used in any previous analysis. This adverse crack growth rate i . distribution is appropriate for PWSCC at eggerate locations. However, it is l-{ - unduly conservative for ODSCC/lGA at both freespan and eggerate locations. The sole focus of the previous analysis was a conservative calculation of !f conditional probability of burst. This goal was met but the choice of a very conservative crack growth rate distribution contributed to an under prediction i of the expected number of ODSCC/lGA indications at both freespan and i oggerate locations as presented in the next section. ? 5 The distribution of Plus Point probe voltages of eggerate and freespan ODSCC/lGA indications at both EOC 8 and the mid cycle inspections was compared to data from plants of similar design. Plus Point voltage is a reasonable comparative gauge of degradation severity. The r'esults for SONGS Unit 2 over two operating periods point to crack growth rates which are toward the. lowest rather highest end of the spectrum of growth rates observed to date. Consequently a moderate crack growth rate distribution -] was selected, one about equal to that observed in another plant where two consecutive Plus Point upper bundle inspections had been performed'. A log normal distribution was used and the standard deviation was increased slightly to 'a typical value of 0.65. This increases the likelih'ood of encountering large growth rates and adds to the conservatism of the analysis 1 in a reasonable manner. Figure 3.5_ illustrates the crack growth rate R i l Aptoch Engineering Services, Inc. AES98033327-1 = _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - -.

i o-l ^ distributions used for simulating PWSCC at eggerate locations and j ODSCC/lGA at both freespan and eggerate regions. l .J t 4 1 I o 3 I i a 8 I-I- 5 Aptoch Engineering Services, Inc. AES98033327-1 20

2000 l-1800 1@ 1400 ) 1200-E h1000-E l; 800-lJ j 000 I g. I l 200-I LI 0 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 145 Mdd+UtimdeS, api (ks) Figure 3.1 Histogram of Tube Strength Data for SONGS Unit 2, Steam Generators 88 and 89. Aptech Engineering Services, Inc. AES98033327-1

1 l 1.0 l 4 i 0.9 l j Mid Cycle inspection

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/ Results, Eggerate l .e 0.8 -- ODSCC / IGA \\ l Log Normal Distribution /,,/j Used in Both Current and 1 0.7 Previous Analyses .) 8** r: / ~ m ,[ 0.5 li3 l I U 'I 0.4 / g 0.3 / l t [ il I;'. 1 0.2 'T 1 ] 0.1 / i l l 3, , J. 0.0 O.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 Crack Length, Inches l 1 l l Figure 3.2 Comparison of Mid Cycle Eggerate ODSCC / IGA Length j Distribution With Previously Developed Log Normal Sampling l Aptech Engineering Services, Inc. AES980333271 l -. 22 l 4 l l-f' L - --- - _ o

l* 1 1.0 .i' I 0.9 Team C ' Team E Team B g 0.8 Team D Team A l 0.7 O s o " 0.6 E l W ~, 0.5 i ? E l f .3 0.4 2 n. t 2 0.3 0.2 } t 0.1 t 0.0 0 20 40 60 80 100 Maximum Crack Depth, %TW i Figure 3.3 SONGS Supplemental Performance Demonstration Test POD l Curves i l Aptech Engineering Services, Inc. AES98033327-1

"1 - .l- . 1.0 0.9 0.8 / ? 0.7 g Supplemental Performance Demonstration - Average POD g . 0.6 EOC 8 ODSCC / IGA - POD / ~ For Updated Predictions. b 0.5 A o I /,I PWSCC at Eggerate Locations 0.4 .j a. 'I 0.3 3 1 0.2 l~ 0.1 0.0 O 20 40 60 80 100 Average Crack Depth, %TW I O Figure 3.4 Bobbin POD Curves Used in Current Analysis Aptoch Engineering Services, Inc. AES98033327-1 {

O 9 1.0 / 0.9 r i O.8 8 PWSCC at Eggerate intersections t O.7 ODSCC / IGA j e 0.6 a 3 i ,j .E 0.5 i 53 0 0.4 .t ( 0.3 1 I 0.2 b I l v i 0.1 v ~ 0.0 O 10 20 30 40 b Crack Growth Rate, %TW / EFPY Figure 3.5 Sampling Distributions For ODSCC / IGA and PWSCC Crack Growth Rates Aptech Engineering Services, Inc. AES98033327-1

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1

/ Section 4 PROBABillSTIC MODEL The probabilistic run-time model projects the processes that have contributed to tube degradation over the history of a steam generator in order to assess the structural condition of the generator at a future inspection. Specifically, l Monte Carlo simulation of the processes of crack' initiation, crack growth, eddy current inspection, and removal or repair of degraded tubes provides lI information necessary to estimate the probability of tube burst and the l' magnitude of leakage at the nekt scheduled inspection, given a postulated steam line break event. 4 The state of degradation of the steam generator tubing is simulated by a defect population that is defined by several parameters. These are: the size of the population at risk, the initiation function that describes crack inception, the ' distributions of the defect geometries, and the growth rate distribution that determines the change in crack depth over time. 1. d T - The population at risk, in combination with the initiation function, determines [ the' total number of defects simulated in the analysis. The choice of i . population size primarily influences the computational time and memory requirements of the simulation. In cases where the choice of population at risk is not obvious from physical considerations, care must be taken to avoid an unreasonably low value that can prematurely exhaust the initiated defect - i

population.

For degradation near expansion transitions the obvious population at risk is the number of tubes in the bundle. For cracking at l eggerate intersections, some multiple of the number of' tubes in the bundle is ' Aptoch Engineering Services, Inc. AES980333271 j l i '4 m. 2-______---:_-__-___ .__.--_-L__--_

N,. t appropriate. If the total population of degraded sites is small compared to the total number of sites at risk, then the choice of the number of sites at risk is not of concern other than perhaps creating unwarranted memory requirements. ] The initiation function for defects is based on a modified Weibull function, which requires a scale parameter and a slope parameter. The scale parameter reflects the length of time required to initiate a given percentage of all potential crack sites. This parameter may be on the order of several decades. The slope parameter is a measure of the rate of increase in initiated defects over time. The scale and slope parameters are adjusted iteratively until the number of indications produced by the simulation matches the actual number of flaws detected at recent plant inspections. Having matched the number in indications observed at recent inspections, j .other key benchmarking items include: predicting the measured severity of degradation, confirming notable in situ test results, and reproducing observed inspection transients. e I 1 A probabilistic analysis of degradation within a steam generator includes many thousands of simulations that track the condition of the steam .l generator through several past inspection periods to develop benchmark 4 statistics. The model then projects the degradation mechanism through the current operating cycle in order to predict the structural condition of the generator as a function of cycle duration. The present study considers all past inspections for which eddy current inspection results are available. Each mock operating cycle and inspection event within a single steam s' generator simulation consists of several steps that trace the initiation and . Aptech Engineering Services, Inc. AES98033327-1 l i 1

a. development of individual. cracks. For each potential crack site, a crack initiation time is drawn at random from a cumulative initiation function. A certain percentage of the crack sites will have initiated during or prior to the operating cycle of interest. ~ For each initiated crack, a set of descriptive parameters is drawn at random from appropriate distributions to describe. the crack in detail. These parameters include the crack length, the crack form factor, and the strength a properties of the tube in which the crack resides. The crack retains these ). particular features throughout its entire life. A growth rnte is then sampled from the growth rate distribution. The growth rate is applied to the crack - depth'over the interval of time between inspections. The growth is assumed to be linear in time. A new growth rate is sampled after each simulated inspection and applieo over the ensuing operating cycle, which accounts for potential changes in local growth environments due to start-up transients. The average depth of the crack increases with time, and the maximum depth 1 is correspondingly adjusted a> cording to the crack form factor. j Simulated inspections are performed according to the plant-specific inspection schedules. The crack depth at the end of a completed operating ] cycle, together with the POD curve, determine the probability that a particular crack will be detected during an inspection. A random number is i drawn from a uniform distribution and compared to the POD. If the random a. draw is less than the POD, the crack is detected and removed from service. i Undetected cracks are left in service and allowed to grow throughout the i following operating cycle, and the process is repeated at subsequent i l. inspections. l i i: i ie Aptoch Engineering Services, Inc. AES98033327-1 l l 1 __x_____-___---__-

I l, All cracks, whether detected or undetected, are examined et the end of-cycle inspections to asss i the probability of tube burst and leakage under steam line break conditions. The algorithm records a burst if the accident pressure, differential exceeds the burst pressure for a particular flawed tube. If the maximum crack depth exceeds the tube thickness, the flaw is considered to ~ be leaking. A potentially high leak rate can result from a " pop-through" event, which occurs when the length of a particuiar defect is not sufficient to } cause a full burst, but the average depth of the crack is such that the crack breaks through-wall over its entire structural length. l When all initiated cracks have been inspected over the course of prescribed past and future operating cycles, a single Monte Carlo trial of t'he steam generator is complete. Many thousands of such trials are necessary to ,j generate the distributions of tubs burst and leakage rates required in the structural margin assessments. 1 The output from the simulation algorithm consists of a record of all tubes I that have burst during the simulation, and all defects that have penetrated through-wall and are assumed to be leaking. Other pertinent data such as .~' the operating cycle during which the burst or leak event occurred, the tube ] material properties, flaw length, and form factor are also recorded. l For a given operating cycle of interest, the number of burst events are tallied l 1 and a 95% upper confidence bound for the probability of burst is computed uj using an appropriate F-distribution, as in Reference 15. For example, if 10,000 simulations of the steam generator produce 1 or more bursts in 30 of 3 the trials, the 95% confidence probability of burst is calculated to be PoB = 0.00407. l' ld Aptech Engineering Services, Inc. AES98033327-1 L----------------------

I i A leak rate is assigned to each throughwall defect according to the methods i presented in Section 2. The. total leak ' rate for each steam generator simulation is then computed, the simulation leak rates are sorted in r 1 ascending order, and the 95/95 probability / confidence leak rate is determined l7 as described in Reference 15. For example, for 10,000 steam generator ' I simulations, the 9537* highest computed leak rate represents the 95* 1 ~ percentile leak rate with 95% confidence. I a yt i I l I b ed l l a t

}

l S } 1 l Aptech Engineering Services,Inc. AES98033327-1 30 4

rl 1, i Section 5 STRUCTURAL MARGIN AND LEAKAGE EVALUATION Monte Carlo simulation models were used to project the progress of a corrosion degradation of steam. generator tubing in SONGS Unit 2. Five degradation mechanisms were considered in 'otal. Results for axial and circumferential degradation at the top of the tubesheet are desenbed in an l, earlier report'. A mid cycle 6JJy current inspection at this location was not warranted. The severity of PWSCC at a limited number of eggerate intersections indicated that the prudent course of action was to inspect and monitor the progression of axial degradation at eggerate locations approximately midway through Cycle 9. This inspection was performed. Freespan and eggerate ODSCC/lGA indications were naturally encountered in the 100% bobbin probe exam. These indications as well as PWSCC ) indications were removed from service. The following paragraphs describe a { comparison of mid cycle projections with observed results and an update of projected results for the remainder of the Cycle 9 operating period. Table'5.1 lists the history of the number of eddy current indications for a l- -composite worst case generator at SONGS Unit 2. Eddy current results for j the two generators are roughly equal. There are relatively few indications at l eggerate intersections. However, both axial ODSCC and PWSCC have been observed at eggerate intersections. The most numerous indications are at the top of the tubesheet where both axial and circumferential degradation .has been found. Again ' both ID and OD indications have been reported. ODSCC/lGA at freespan locations was detected with the bobbin probe at l l _ Aptoch Engineering Services, Inc. AES980333271 l i l W___.

) ( EOC 8 (10.09 EFPY) and confirmed via pulled tube examinations. In terms of severity, the limiting form of degradation is PWSCC at eggerate intersections. The most salient feature of Table 5.1 is the fact that the prediction for the limiting degradation mechanism, PWSCC for eggerate intersections, is accurate. The most obvious feature of Table 5.1 is the difference between l7 the number of mid cycle freespan indications observed,147, and the i number predicted, 63. As described in Section 4, a Weibull crack initiation was used. There are exte.nsive studies describing the evolution of numbers of indications and plugged / repaired steam generator tubes versus time". For all types of corrosion degradation in steam generator tubes, the range of Weibull slopes is about 2 to 7. Slopes greater than 7 are not observed even ) for highly controlled SCC tests of a single heat of material. Taken at face value, a jump from 44 indications at 10.09 EFPY to 147 indications at 10.85 EFPY implies a Weibull slope of about 20. In the I l previous SONGS analysis, a Weibull slope of 6 was selected and the scale ) factor was adjusted to match predicted and observed numbers of indications at 10.09 EFPY. This is common practice if there is only one set of } observations. If more than one set of observations are available a best fit slope is used. An indicated slope greater than 7 clearly implies that other factors must be considered. l There is no evidenc~e of chemistry transients and chemical cleaning has been demonstrated to lower initiation rates of freespan degradation in other ' units, ro Aptech Engineering Services, Inc. AES98033327-1 32 w__________

Section 3 described the development and selection of probability of detection curves for the bobbin probe. Calculations of the conditional probability of tube burst are dominated by the probability of missing a deep crack and the ] probability of encountering a large crack growth rate. It is the tails of the POD curves and crack growth rate distributions that are the dominant safety 1 ] consideration. However, there are certain situations where conservative 1 choices of POD curves and crack growth rate distributions result in under ~l predictions of the number of cracks while still yielding conservative l probability of burst calculations. The predicted number of freespan indications at the mid cycle inspection was based on the worst of five POD curves determined. in a supplemental performance demonstration test and Ij fast crack growth rates. In actual practice, the number of reported I indications at the mid cycle was determined by the majority of analysts with I better POD performance. Crack growth rates slower than the large assumed values allows a larger build up of the population of small cracks. This exacerbates the difference between the worst case POD curve and average analyst performance. 1 When prudent, but not unduly conservative, choices are made relative to crack growth rate distributions and POD curves, projected and observed numbers of indications at both EOC 8 and the mid cycle inspection are in good agreement. Table 5.1 shows that by EOC 9, freespan degradation, if 1 j not abated by the effects of chemical cleaning, will begin to rival top of the tubesheet degradation in terms of numbers which must be repaired or removed from service, l ' 5.1 Axial PWSCC at " Dented" Eggi, rate Intersections l 1 Aptech Engineering Services, Inc. AES98033327-1 l l

}.. l ' As noted previously, PWSCC, on mechanistic grounds, is associated with deformed or dented eggerate intersections, even if there is no detectable denting via eddy current inspection. The largest observed axial cracks at EOC 8 were ID initiated. Axial PWSCC at eggerate intersections is the limiting form of degradation at SONGS Unit 2. Probabilistic projections for the mid cycle inspection indicated only a very small chance of encountering a challenge to the 3AP burst pressure limit. No such challenge was observed. Figure 5.1 plots the distribution of Plus Point voltages for PWSCC indications ~ at eggerates for both EOC 8 and the mid cycle inspection. The calculated f conditional probability of burst at EOC 9 is 0.0043 and the associated 95/95 leak rate at postulated SLB conditions is zero. 5.2 Axial ODSCC/lGA at Freespan Locations Axial ODSCC/lGA was detected at SONGS Unit 2 at freespan locations at { the EOC 8 inspection. This is not unexpected in view of the performance of ~ similar steam generators. This degradation was discovered by the bobbin { probe after chemical cleaning of the unit. Plus Point inspections were performed in tubes with bobbin probe indications. The low signal amplitudes of Plus Point indications argued for mild severity of freespan axial degradation. This was confirmed by burst tests of pulled tubes. The burst strength of pulled tube sections with axial freespan indications was in excess of 10,000 psi. The magnitude of Plus Point voltages of freespan indications at the mid cycle inspection is smaller than those of the EOC 8 inspection, as illustrated in Figure 5.2. These voltages are indicative of near virgin tube structural and leakage integrity. Monte Carlo calculations show no burst events at postulated SLB conditions in 10,000 simulations of the projected EOC 9 degradation state. Using a worst case growth rate leads to the same result. The calculated 95/95 SLB leak rate is zero. Aptech Engineering Services, Inc. AES980333271

): ,:

1. -4 5.3 - ODSCC/lGA at Eggcrate Intersections The severity of axial ODSCC/lGA degradation at eggerate intersections at the mid cycle inspection is best illustrated by the distribution of Plus Point voltages of ~' t'hese. indications shown. In Figure ' 5.3. As expected,. the ') distribution at mid cycle voltages lies to the left of the corresponding j distribution for EOC 8. By comparison with Figure 5.2, ODSCC/lGA at eggerate locations is somewhat more severe than that at freespan locations.- However, the maximum voltages -of mid cycle indications at eggerate 'l locations is lower than those of tubes pulled at EOC 8 with burst pressures in excess of.10,000 psi. ODSCC/lGA degradation at either' eggerate or-freespan locations is very mild. With fewer eggerate indications than in the freespan, it is expected that Monte Carlo calculations again show no burst j events at postulated SLB conditions in 10,000 simulations of the projected EOC 9 degradation state. Again, using a worst case growth rate leads to the

e st same result. The calculated 95/95 SLB leak rate is zero.

l 5.4 Axial Degradation at the Top of the Tubesheet

tj Axial degradation near expansion transitions at the '.op of the tubesheet.was 1 _

_first detected at SONGS Unit 2 in the inspection at EOC-8. In the most ] affected generator, 91 indications were found using the Plus Point eddy current probe. About one-third of this total was ID degradation, located ,q, below the top of the tubesheet. The constraining effect of the tubesheet a-was ignored as a conservative measure. Crack lengths evaluated from the l* response of the Plus Point probe substantially overstate the crack length , relative to the structurally significant crack length. Even when conservatively ' equating the structurally significant crack length to the Plus Point crack j-length, the severity of the axial top of the tubesheet degradation is mild. Aptoch Engineering Services, Inc., AES98033327-1 l

[. l 1 1* li 4 Very few of the indications are long enough to challenge the SLB burst pressure with the bounding assumption of 100% throughwall cracking. As presented in an earlier report, probability calculations regarding burst and l' leak rate behavior reflect the implications of the measured crack length sampling distribution. Both ID and OD degradation was considered together using a conservative distribution of crack growth rates. The conditional 'l probability of tube burst is 0.0033 at EOC 9 assuming a total of 2.0 EFPY of } 1 operation between the EOC 8 and EOC 9 inspections. The corresponding i l projected accident leak rate at postulated SLB conditions is 0.009 gpm at 600*F. Ii 5.5 Circumferential Degradation at the Top of the Tubesheet i s. Circumferential degradation at expansion transitions at the top of the tubesheet has been observed at SONGS Unit 2 at EOC 6, EOC 7 and EOC 8 inspections. Both ID and OD degradation has been observed. Use of the Plus Point probe at EOC-8 rather than the previous RPC pancake probe led to an inspection transient which was included in the simulation mouel. The measure of severity for circumferential degradation is the percent degraded area of the tube annular cross section. PDA values at EOC 8 were obtained following an EPRI voltage normalization procedure. As in the case of the top I of the tubesheet axial cracking, both ID and OD circumferential cracking was i considered together using an appropriately conservative growth rate distribution. The conservative nature of this analysis is illustrated in Figure. 4 5.4 where actual PDA measurements at EOC-8 are compared with predicted PDA measurements. I Aptech Engineering Services, Inc. AES98033327-1

]. t 1 As described in an earlier report, the conditional gobability of tube burst from top of the tubesheet circumferential degradation is 0.0005 at 2.0 EPFY l 1 of operation in Cycle 9. Projected leak rates for circumferential degradation are the dominant contributor to the total calculated 95/95 SLR leek rate. The contribution from circumferential cracking is 0.38 gpm at 600'F after 2.0 EFPY of operation in Cycle 9. 5.6 Summa'f r

Structural Margin and Leak Rate Evaluations l

l A summary of calculated conditional probabilities of tube burst and upper bound accident induced leak rates is provided in Table 5.2 for the five l operative corrosion degradation mechanisms at SONGS Unit 2. The limiting 1 mode of degradation is PWSCC at eggerate intersections relative to !.'j conditional probability of tube burst. In terms of projected leak rates at postulated accident conditions, circumferential degradation at the top of the j tubesheet is the dominant consideration. Calculated conditional probabilities of tube burst and projected upper bound SLB leak rates at EOC 9 meet the l requirements of draft regulatory guide DG-1074. l l l i Aptech Engineering Services, Inc. AES98033327-1 l 37 4 u_______________

j-L 1 A C T 7 ITC N 2 I 3 NS O 3 EW P 3 R 0 E P S 7 7 3. 8 2 F& CCU . 2 9 9 M PPL 2 2 S U C RRP E /// A C C 023 R S 11 9 D I C O 3 S TT 1 C T C N I S O 0 1 0 LW P 5 S 5 4._ A 2 2 P S - I Y X R A & CC U PP L R O S C RRP /I / O T T C 1O1 TS T S 9 AI D R H O E N N O C BE 2 EI = TGT E C O 1 A TS R 5NT C AW P NNNN I I I I I / BBBB USI RP D a_ E RD C E BBBB 8 c LSON GL V OOOO g. 8 g2 6 3 B G G A R BBBB WI //// A N I E 0O88 T E X T S OEN A B STE O IS R E A R T G O P U A NNNN 0 6_3 l Ll I I I I C R AC BBBB Z-1 2_5 M CI C BBBB OY GX S OOOO CD GA D BBBB / / / / D E O 3271 E 3 s m LA I X A cn A G NNNN I N N 421 s l I I I I N/ BBBB O g-O 41 1 A C BBBB e P C OOOO T T 1_ 2 ic I I v S S BBBB C C e r e ED //// E E S EO OO47 J J g R 44 O O n F 1 R R ir P e P e S n D ig U E n O T E 6295 59 A 959 h I Y 1608 V 80 D 080 c P E e F 7800 R 02 P 002 tp E 1 1 P 11 U 1 1 1 A I jlI lll l

I :.- l TABLE 5.2

SUMMARY

OF STRUCTURAL MARGIN AND PROJECTED SLB LEAK RATES. Il J PROJECTED FOR 12.09 EFPY ( EOC 9 ) Degradation Mechanism Conditional Probability of 95/95 Leak Rate at j Burst at Postulated SLB Postulated SLB (95% Confidence Level) (GPM at 600*F) Axial ODSCC at 0.0003 0 E Eggerate Intersections Axial PWSCC at 0.0043 0 ] Eggerate Intersections Freespan Axial ODSCC 0.0003 0 , J.; Circumferential ODSCC/PWSCC at 0.0005 0.38 'J-Expansion Transitions } Axial ODSCC at i.4 Expansion Transitions 0.0033 0.009 '4 1 Aptoch Engineering Services,Inc. AES980333271 ] O.

~ 1.0 0.9 0.8 i l f 0.7 r-g 0.6 b l .J u. 2 0.5 u j EOC8 E - Mid Cycle 9 0.4 3 l l J 0.3 0.2 I 1 j / / I l O.0 O.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 Volts i Figure 5.1 Distribution of Voltages of Plus Point PWSCC Indications at Eggerate Intersections, EOC 8 and Mid Cycle 9 Aptech Engineering Services, Inc. AES98033327-1

1.0 I i' 0.9 I i 0.8 1 0.7 I e 0.6 l E f o i E u. j0.5 'lii EOC 8 l b Mid Cycle 9 i l U 0.4 f I f l 0.3 j 0.2 f I l I I 0.1 i [ I 0.0 O.00 0.20 0.40 0.s0 0.80 1.00 1.20 Volts Figure 5.2 Distribution of Plus Point Voltages of Freespan ODSCC / IGA Indications, EOC 8 and Mid Cycle 9 Aptach Engineering Services, Inc. AES98033327-1

1 I e,' 1.0 l O.9 If / 0.8 f 1 0.7 a c 0.6 v 5 / ,E 0.5 [ 6 3 EOC8 9 E Mid Cycle 9 l y l I i 0.4 e l 0.3 f t /) I 1 0.2 I l 0.1 i 0.0 O.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 Volts 1 Figure 5.3 Distribution of Voltages of Plus Point ODSCC / IGA Indications at j Eggerate Intersections, EOC 8 and Mid Cycle 9 Aptech Engineering Services, Inc. AES980333271 42 l )

}. 18 16 14 E SG-88 and SG-89 i um 4 12 - Cosimulation results .c '} , 10 - c S ~ = \\ .E ' 8 - = 'I, 6-tr 4-f I 2- = n 0 l 5 15 25 35 45 55 65 75 85 95 PDA Figure 5.4 Comparison cf Actual Measurements and Predicted Measurements For Circumferential Degradation PDA Values at the Top of Tubesheet, EOC 8 i l Aptech Engineering Services, Inc. AES98033327-1 43

Q, . p.- I: Section 6 i

SUMMARY

AND CONCLUSIONS An updated probabilistic operationa! assessment of steam generator tubing in SONGS Unit 2 was conducted following a mid cycle,100% bobbin probe eddy current inspection after 0.76 EFPY of operation in cycle 9. A previous analysis demonstrated that a mid cycle eddy current inspection of the top of the tubesheet region was not required. Axial and circumferential degradation 1 in this area is prudently managed with end of cycle inspections using a Plus Point: probe. A mid cycle bobbin probe inspection monitored the development of axial corrosion degradation at freespan and eggerate locations. Inspection results were used to check and update projections for the following degradation mechanisms: j Axial freespan degradation e ' Axial ODSCC/lGA at eggerate intersections e } Axial PWSCC at eggerate intersections e Previously reported' evaluation results-for axial and circumferentia! .) I degradation at the top of the tubesheet are included for completeness. 1-3# Monte Carlo simulation models were used to project the progress of j corrosion degradation of steam generator tubing in SONGS Unit 2. Corrosion degradation was conservatively represented as planar cracking. The processes of crack initiation, crack growth and detection of cracking by addy current inspections were simulated for multiple cycles of operation. Thus the severity of corrosion degradation was projected for operating cycles' and i times of. interest. Both ' detected and undetectad crack populations are J Aptoch Engineering Services, Inc. AES98033327-1 x_______i____i__.__--__------------i- - - - - - - - - - -

3 included. Burst and leak rate calculations are based on the total crack population. The simulation model is benchmarked by comparing simulation results with actual addy current inspection results, notable in situ test 'results, and pulled tube test data. ll; Observed worst case degradation severity compared well with earlier l' projections for all types of axial degradation. Earlier projections of 1 7 conditional probability of tube burst are considered to be conservative. la However, the number of freespan indications was under predicted. This was i caused by an assumption of an unduly conservative crack growth rate distribution and an improved probability of detection of degradation. Corresponding parameters have been updated and projections of axial corrosion degradation at eggerate and freespan locations for the next 1.24 ) EFPY of operation have been developed. v2 Projected levels of corrosion degradation severity allowed calculations of the conditional probability of tube burst and an upper bound accident induced leak rate. At EOC 9, after an additional 1.24 EFPY of operation following the mid cycle inspection, the conditional probability ' of. tube burst, given a postulated steam line break event, is less much than 0.01 for each of the ] five corrosion mechanisms. The total conditional probability of tube burst is 0.008, which is considerably less than the 0.025 limit specified in DG-1074. The largest contributor to the conditional probability of tube burst is axial PWSCC at eggerate intersections. The contribution from axial degradation at the top of the tubesheet is comparable. The projected 95/95 leak rate total j at postulated SLB conditions is 0.39 gpm at 600* F. Almost all of this total 'is associated with top of the tubesheet circumferential corrosion degradation.

..r h. REFERENCES 1,; =.'

11. Begley, C.J.,

Woodman, B.W.,

and Begley, J. A., "A Probabilistic Operatiorial Assessment of Steam Generator Tube Degradation at Songs Unit 2 for Cycle 9, APTECH Report AES 97043057-1-1, Rev. 2, j September,1997. 2. Draft NRC Regulatory Guide DG-1074, Steam Generator Tube Integrity, September,1997. ! eDd 3.

Sweeney, K., "Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station Unit 2 Steam Generator Evaluation", Arizona Public Service Co. Report, August 1995.

t 4. Begley, J.A., " Analysis of ODSCC/lGA at Tubesheet and Tube Support Locations at St. Lucie Unit 1," APTECH Report AES 96052749-1-1, dated October 1996. 5. Begley, J.A., Woodman, B.W., "An Analysis of ODSCC/lGA at Eggerate Support Locations at Arkansas Nuclear One (ANO) Unit 2, APTECH } Report AES 95102556-1-1, dated March 1996. 6. "Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station Unit 3 Cycle 6 Steam Generator 3 J' Evaluation," Arizona Public Service _ Co., Submitted to the NRC, July 1996. 3 4 7. Woodman,-B.W., Begley, J.A., "Palo Verde Unit 2 Run Time Analysis Regarding the. Impact of Upper Bundle Corrosion Degradation During Cycle 7, AES 96072812-1-1 Rev.1, dated December 1996 8. Cochet, B., " Assessment of the Integrity of Steam Generator Tubes - } Burst Test Results - Validation of Rupture Criteria (FRAMATOME , 2 DATA)," Palo Alto, CA, Electric Power Research Institute, NP-6865-L, l,, - Vol.1, June,1991. () 9. Begley, C.J., and Begley, J.A., "A Generic Probabilistic Analysis of the Effect of Axial Freespan Corrosion on the Structural Performance and Leak Rate Behavior of OTSG Tubing", APTECH Report, AES96102886-10-1, June 1997. 1-Aptoch Engineering Services, Inc. AES98033327. i'.

p. i 10. " Depth Based Structured Analysis Methods for SG Circumferential Indications", EPRI

Report, EPRI TR-107197-P1, Interim

Report, November,1997.

11. "PICEP:

Pipe Crack Evaluation Program (Revision 1)", Electric Power Research Institute, December,1987, NP-3596-SR, Revision 1. l_ .12. Begley, J.A., " Leak Rate Calculations for Axial' Cracks in Steam Generator Tubing," APTECH Calculation AES-C-2797-2, dated April, '1997. 1 j

13. "PWR Steam Generator Tube Repair Umits - Technical Support Document for Outside Diameter Stress Corrosion Cracking at Tube Support Piates",

l EPRI Report, TR-00407 Rev.1, August,1993. 'l

14. Zahoor, A., " Ductile Fracture Handbook", EPRI Report, NP.6301-D, RP i

1757-69, June,1989.

15. "SLB Leak Rate and Tube Burst Probability Analysis Methods for ODSCC

,j at TSP Intersections," Westinghouse Non-Proprietary Class 3 Report, WCAP-14277 Revision 1, December,1996. .)

16. " Statistical Analysis of Steam Generator Tube Degradation," EPRI 9eport, EPRI NP-6967, RPS405-9,1991.

t l

17. " Correlation of Temperature with Steam Generator Tube Corrosion Experience, EPRI report, EPRI NP-XXXX, RPS407-7,1992.

'I i

18. " Life Assessment Procedures for Major LWR Components, Volume 4:

Steam Generator Tubes, Draft Report, NUREG/CR-5314, Volume 4, 1989. J

19. Begley, J.A., " Evaluation of Leak and Burst Characteristics. of Roll Transitions Containing Primary Water Stress Corrosion Cracks,"

Westinghouse STC Document No. 92-STE4-ODSCC-R1, Contract Required Document. EPRI Research Project S406-7, Final Report, February,1991.

20. "Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station Unit 2 Cycle 7 Steam Generator i

Evaluation," Arizona Public Service Co., Submitted to the' NRC, January 1997. Aptoch Engineering Services, Inc. AES98033327-1 1 v _.__..____.__________._____._.___________._______w

O 9 l l APPENDIX 3 DETAILED COMPUTATIONAL OUTPUT FOR THE

SUMMARY

TABLE 5-2 IN THE APTECH ENGINEERING SERVICES REPORT (APPENDIX 2)

C l t a C

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6. 4 48484.7 4 8 4.7 50 e

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8. 1 00 01 1

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