ML20206Q777
| ML20206Q777 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Pilgrim |
| Issue date: | 11/30/1998 |
| From: | KLD ASSOCIATES, INC. |
| To: | |
| References | |
| TR-203A, TR-203A-R05, TR-203A-R5, NUDOCS 9905190222 | |
| Download: ML20206Q777 (575) | |
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i Pilgrim Station :
Evacuation Time Estimates
. And Traffic Management Plan Update Prepared By Prepared For KLD Associates,Inc. Boston Edison Company 300 Broadway Emergency Preparedness Division Huntington Station, NY 11746 Rocky Hill Road TEL: (516) 549 9803 RFD # 1 FAX: (516) 3517190 Plymouth, MA 02360 A
V November 1998 Rev. 5 KLD Report TR-203A-5 i
FOREWORD The Evacuation Time Estimate and Traffic Management Plan for Pilgrim Station presented herein is a document which has undergone
. extensive reviews since August, 1987 when a draft report was issued. The contents of the report were updated to reflect comments received from a variety of sources; State and local agencies, town RERP c rmittees , and the general public. The contents of the RERPs and :mplementation Procedures, developed to date, were used to update the. planning assumptions utilized. The Evacuation Time Estimate and Traffic Management Plan remains a "living document" to be revised as planning assumptions change, new information becomes available, or as population and development patterns within the area change over time.
l This document references the use of three reception centers; l Bridgewater State College, Taunton High School, and Braintree High l School. It is important to note that the number and location of reception centers does not effect the ETE as long as the reception I
centers are located a sufficient distance from the Emergency Planning Zone boundary.
The 1990 Census Data used herein is a base from which some population projections are made. Population projections are based not only on Census Data but upon data supplied by Massachusetts government agencies and various town detartments.
3 I i
The traffic management plans are designed to move evacuees ,
- along the recommended evacuation routes and to manage traffic l operations under high volume traffic conditions when they occur.
l The recommended evacuation routes were designed to move evacuees l out of an area at risk in a safe and efficient manner.
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i TABLE OF CONTENTS
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Section Title Pace
- 1. INTRODUCTION 1-1
, 1.1 Overview of the Plan Update Process 1-1 1.2 Description of the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) 1-4 1.3 Preliminary Activities 1-4
- 2. DEMAND ESTIMATION 2-1 Trip Generation; Permanent Residents; Seasonal Residents and Transients; Summer Residents; Tourists at Beaches, Parks and Historical Sites; Tourists at Hotels and Motels; Tourists at Camps and Campsites; Estimation of Day-Trippers and Elimination of Double-Counting; Boaters; Employees; Other Vehicles
- 3. ESTIMATION OF HIGHWAY CAPACITY 3-1 Capacity Estimations on Approaches to Intersections; Capacity Estimatica Along Sections of Highway; General Considerations; Application to Pilgrim EPZ: Two-Lane Roads; Freeway Capacity; Freeway Ramps; Fog; Link "N Capacities (Q
1-
- f. ESTIMATION OF TRIP GENERATION TIME 4-1 Background; Fundamental Considerations; Estimated Time Distributions of Activities Preceding Event 5: Time Distribution of the Notification Process; Calculation of Trip Generation Time Distribution; Algorithm No. 1; Computed Time Distribution of Event k+1; Trip Generation Distributions for Week-end Scenarios; Trip Generation Distribution for Permanent Residents, for Weekday Scenar; s: Snow Clearance Time Distribution
- 5. ESTIMATED TRAFFIC DEMAND FOR EVACUATION SCENARIOS 5-1 l E. TRAFFIC CONTROL AND MANAGEMENT TACTICS 6-1
- 7. TRAFFIC ROUTING PLANS 7-1
- 8. ACCESS CONTROL WITHIN, AND AT THE PERIPHERY OF, THE EMERGENCY PLANNING ZONE (EPZ) AND DIVERSION ROUTES 8-1 Identification and Installatien of Control
['T Devices
\l Rev. 5
r'% TABLE OF CONTENTS h (cont.)
Section Title Pace
- 9. EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES (ETE) FOR GENERAL l POPULATION 9-1 Discussion of ETE; Example 1; Example 2; Sensitivity Tests; Slower Rates of Accident l
i Escalation; Effects of Traffic Accidents; Effects of Varying Snowfall Intensity Levels; Effects of Varying Capacity Factors; Effects of Late Manning of Traffic and Access Control Points; Patterns of Traffic Congestion during
, Evacuation (Region 1, Scenario 1); Patterns j l
of Traffic Congestion during Evacuation '
(Region 1, Scenario 5); Evacuation Rates;
' Summary of Evacuation Time Analysis; Results of Current Update .
- 10. EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES (ETE) FOR TRANSIT OPERATIONS 10-1 Residents and Transients With No Vehicles Available; Bus Transit Concept of Operations:
/
Calculation of Transit Route Travel Times; l Schools and Special Facilities; Special k_s\ Facilities; Emergency Medical Service (EMS) '
Vehicles; Conclusions
- 11. SURVEILLANCE OF EVACUATION OPERATIONS 11-1 Tow Vehicles
- 12. CONFIRMATION TIME 12-1 Summary of ETE
{
APPENDIX A - Glossary of Terms A-1 APPENDIX B - Traffic Assignment Model B-1 i APPENDIX C - Traffic Simulation Model: I-DYNEV C-1 l APPENDIX D - Detailed Description of Study Procedure D-1 APPENDIX E - Supporting Data E-1 APPENDIX F - Telephone Survey Instrument F-1 APPENDIX G - Tabulations of Telephone Survey Data G-1 APPENDIX H - 1990 Census Data H-1 APPENDIX I - Traffic and Access Control Summary by Town I-1 1 APPENDIX J - Description of Evacuation Routes J-1 l APPENDIX X - Evacuation Route Maps K-1 APPENDIX L - Access Control Activation L-1 APPENDIX M - Estimated Traffic Demands at all Origin Centroids, Loading Rates and Origin-
,- Destination Patterns M-1 ii Rev. 5
TABLE OF CONTENTS (conc.)
Section Title Pace
' APPENDIX N - Network Link Attributes N-1
, APPENDIX 0 - Subarea Bus Foutes 0-1 APPENDIX P - Review of Highway Construction Affecting Evacuation Routes P-1 APPENDIX Q - Evacuation Time Estimate Sensitivity Tests Q-1
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11; Rev. 5
O LIST OF FIGURES ss! No. Title Pace 1-1 General Site Area 1-2 1-5 Evacuation Network Schematic 1-9 2-1 Trip Generation Time Distributions ior the General Population 2-4 2-2 Household Size Within Pilgrim EPZ 2-3 2-8 !
Auto Ownership of Households Within Pilgrim EPZ 2-9 2-4 Permanent Residents 2-5 2-12 Permanent Resident Vehicles 2-13 2-6 Transient Population - Scenarios 1, 2 i
2-36 l 2-7 Transient Population Vehicles - '
Scenarios 1, 2 2-37 2-8 Employees within the EPZ Who Live Outside the EPZ 2-47 2-9 Employee Vehicles which Join in the Evacuation 2-48 3-1 Fundamental Relationship between Volume and Density 3-5 4-1 Events and Activities Preceding the O' 4-2 Evacuation Comparison of Trip Generation Distributions 4-4 1 l
4-18 l 5-1 Pilgrim Station Emergency Response Planning Areas 5-5 5-2 Employee Population - Scenarios 1, 2 5-11 5-3 Employee Evacuating Vehicles - Scenarios 1, 2 5-4 5-12 Transient Population - Scenarios 3, 4 5-13 5-5 Transient Population vehicles - Scenarios 3, 4 5-14 5-6 Transient Population - Scenarios 5, 6, 7 5-15 5-7 Transient Population Vehicles -
Scenarios 5, 6, 7 5-16 5-8 Employees - Scenarios 8, 9, 10 5-17 5-9 Employee Evacuating Vehicles -
Scenarios 8, 9, 10 5-18 L 5-10 Transient Population - Scenarios 8, 9, 10 5-19 5-11 Transient Population Vehicles - Scenarios 8, 9, 10 5-20 l Q('h iv Rev. 5 l
LIST OF FIGURES l (s (cont.)
No. Title i
Pace l
l , 8-1 Diversion Route and Access Control Cordon for Pilgrim Station Emergency Planning Zone 8-2 9-1 Voluntary Evacuation Rates 9-2A 9-12 Traffic Congestion Patterns for Region 22 Scenario 1 at 1-Hour After the Evacuation Directive 9-15 9-2B Traffic Congestion Patterns for Region 22 Scenario 1 at 2-Hours After the Evacuation Directive 9-16 9-2C Traffic Congestion Patterns for Region 22 Scenario 1 at 3-Hours After the Evacuation Directive '
9-17 9-3A Traffic Congestion Patterns for Region 22 Scenario 5, at 1-Hour After the Evacuation Oirective 9-19 9-3B Traffic Congestion Patterns for Region 22 Scenario 5, at 2-Hours After the Evacuation Directive 9-20
/' 9-3C Traffic Congestion Patterns for Region 22 5
. Scenario 5, at 3-Hours After the '
Evacuation Directive 9-21 9-4a Evacuation Time Estimates, Region 22, Scenario 1 9-24 9-4b Evacuation Time Estimates, Region 22, ]
Scenario 2 9-24 !
9-4c Evacuation Time Estimates, Eegion 22, ;
Scenario 3 9-25 l 9-4d Evacuation Time Estimates. Region 22, l Scenario 4 9-25 9-4e Evacuation Time Estimates. Eegion 22, i Scenario 5 9-26 9-4f Evacuation Time Estimates. Region 22, Scenario 6 9-26 9-4g Evacuation Time Estimates, Eegion 22, Scenario ~ 9-27 9-4h Evacuation Time Estimates, Region 22, Scenario 3 9-27 9-4i Evacuation Time Estimates. Eegion 22, scenario 9 9-28 9-4j Evacuation Time Estimates, Region 22, Scenario 10 9-28 O\/ 7 Rev. 5
l LIST OF FIGURES l
d(~T (conc.)
No. Title Pace 10-1 Distance Travelled for Buses Arriving at the EPZ Boundary 10-15 10-2 Bus Mobilization (Clear Weather) 10-16 10-3 Bus Mobilization (Adverse Weather) 10-17 10-4 Location of Public Schools in the Pilgrim EPZ 10-26 10-5 Location of Special Facilities - Children's Camps, Jails 10-31 10-6 Location of Special Facilities - Day Care Centers 10-32 10-7 Location of Special Facilities - Nursing Homes, Hospitals, and Habilitation Centers 10-33 11-1 Surveillance Patrol Routes '
11-2
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() N2 LIST OF TABLES Title Paae 1-1 Climatic Conditions in Plymouth, MA:
l: 1951-1980 1-6 i 2-1 Estimated Permanent Resident Population l and Number of Evacuating Vehicles 2-10 l 2-2 Estimated Population - Summer Residents 2-14
! 2-3 Estimated Population - Beaches and Ponds 2-15 2-4 Estimated Population - Parks, Historic Sites 2-22 2-5' Estimated Population - Hotels and Motels 2-24 2-6 Estimated Population - Camps and Campsites 2-27 2-7A Estimation of Day-Trippers and Total Number of Transients in Plymouth 2-28 2-75 Estimation of Day-Trippers and Total Number of Transients in Kingston 2-29 1 2-7C Estimation of Day-Trippers and Total Number of Transients in Carver 2-30 2-7D Estimation of Day-Trippers and Total Number of Transients in Duxbury 2-31 2-7E Estimation of Day-Trippers and Total Number f~s of Transients in Marshfield 2-32 .
2-8
(\-) 2-p Estimated Boating Population Summary of Transient Population 2-34 i 2-35 2-10 1999 Estimated Employment within the Pilgrim EPZ 2-39 2-11 1999 Estimated Number of Workers within the Pilgrim EPZ 2-40
- 2-12 Comparison of 1999 Worker Estimates Based l
Upon Employment and Telephone Survey Results 2-41 2-13 Employee Origin-Destination Trip Table 2-42 2-14 Estimated Number Employees Who Enter the EPZ to Work and the Associated Number of Vehicles 2-44 2-15 Estimated Number Employees Who Enter the EPZ and the Number of Their Vehicles That Will Evacuate 2-45 2-16 Route 3 Traffic Estimates 2-46 l 2-17 Pilgrim Station EPZ Population by Subarea 2-50 l
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73 1 LIST OF TABLES i i
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No. Title Pace l
4-1 Computed Trip Generation Cumulative Distributions (percent) from Start of Notification 4-15 4-2 Trip Generation Time Histograms for the Week-end Scenarios 4-19 4-2a Trip Generation Time Histograms for the 4-3 Boating Population (Distribution E.) 4-20 Computed Trip Generation Time Distribution for the Mid-week, Mid-day Scenario (Distribution F) 4-21 4-4 Trip Generation Time Histograms for the Week-day Scenarios (Dist. F) 4-22 4-5 Distribution of Snow Clearance Time:
1 Distribution 5 .
4-24
! 4-6 Trip Generation Time Histograms for t?.e Inclement weather, Snow, Scenarios l
(Distributions G, H, I) 4-26 5-1 Description of Pilgrim Emergency Response Planning Areas 5-2
/~s 5-2 Regional Evacuation Groupings
' () 5 ,3 5-4 Descriptions of Evacuation Scenarios Percent of Population Groups for Various 5-6 5-7 '
Scenarios 5-9 7-1 Recipients of Traffic Management Plans i 7-4 i l
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r' LIST OF TABLES i (cont.)
Ho. Title Pace 9-1 Definitions of Evacuation Scenarios 1-10 9-2 9-2 Regional Evacuation Groupings 9-3 9-3 Description of the Emergency Response Planning Subareas of the Pilgrim ,
j Nuclear Power Station (PNPS) 9-4 {
9-4 Estimated Times to Evacuate from Within 2-Miles of Pilgrim Station after the ]
Evacuation Directive is Issued t'o the Indicated Regions 9-5 9-5 Estimated Times to Evacuate from Within 5-Miles of Pilgrim Station after the Evacuation Directive is Issued to the Indicated Regions 9-6 9-6 Estimated Times to Evacuate from Within 10-Miles of Pilgrim Station after the Evacuation Directive is Issued to the Indicated Regions 9-7 9-7 Estimated Times to Evacuate from Within the EPZ Boundary of Pilgrim Station after the
Evacuation Directive is Issued to the Indicated Regions 9-8 ks}/ 9-3
- Estimated Times to Evacuate from Within '
the Associated Area about the Pilgrim Station after the Evacuation Directive is Issued to the Indicated Regions 9-9 9-9 Evacuation Time Estimates for Scenarios lA and 2A: Summer, Weekend, Evening 9-10 9-10A Summary of Results of Evacuation Times Analysis - Scenarios 1 and 2 9-30 9-10B Summary of Results of Evacuation Times Analysis - Scenarios 3 and 4 9-31 9-10C Summary of Results of Evacuation Times Analysis - Scenarios 5 and 6 9-32 9 ' 0D Summary of Results of Evacuation Times Analysis - Scenarios 5 and 7 9-33 l 9-10E Summary of Results of Evacuation Times I Analysis - Scenarios B and 9 9-34 '
9-10F Summary of Results of Evacuation Times Analysis - Scenarios 3 and 10 9-35 l
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l gs e LIST OF TABLES
( (conc.)
No. Title Pace
. 10-1 Number of Cars per Household by Household Size - Plymouth 10-3 10-2 Number of Cars per Household by Household Size - Kingston 10-4 10-3 Number of Cars per Household by Household Size - Carver 10-5 10-4 Number of Cars per Household by Household Size - Duxbury 10-6 10-5 Estimates of Ambulatory Persons Requiring Transit Who Do Not Reside in Special Facilities 10 'I 10-6 Calculated Number of Persons Requiring Transit 10-10 10-7 Estimated Transit Requirements '
10-13 10-8 Time Estimates for Supplemental Bus Evacuation Activities 10-18 10-9 Results of Analysis to Obtain Bus Route Times for Transit-Dependent Persons Within the EPZ 10-22 10-10 Evacuation Time Estimates for the Transit-Dependent Population Within the Entire
("T) s_ . EPZ 10-24
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l 10-11 School Enrollment and Maximum Transportation Requirements 10-27 10-12 Average Route Speeds During Evacuation; Winter, Midweek, Midday, Good Weather, (Scenario 5) 10-29 10-13 School Evacuation Time Estimates for One Round Trip 10-30 O
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LIST OF EXHIBITS Exhibit Title Pace 2-1 Estimation of Persons per Vehicle for
' the Evacuation of Permanent Residents 2-6 Results of Beach Utilization Survey l
2-2 l
Beach: Green Harbor and Brant Rock 2-17 2-2 Results of Beach Utilization Survey Beach: Duxbury 2-18 2-2 Results of Beach Utilization Survey i Beach: Plymouth 2-19 2-2 Results of Beach Utilization Survey Beach: Whitehorse, Priscilla and Manomet 2-20 i l
7-1 Letter Interested Parties 7-3 3-1 General Provisions of the MUTCD 8-7 S-2 Excerpts frem MUTCD Section G: Signing; for Civil Defe.nse 8-8 5-3 Excerpts from the MUTCD on Barricades 8-9 B-4 Excerpts from the MUTCD on Cone Design and Application B-10 12-1 Estimated Number of Telephone Calls
,, - ~ Required for Confirmation of
( f Evacuation 12-2 ;
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g 1. INTRODUCTION i
, j This report describes the analyses undertaken, and the results obtained, in a study to update the existing Evacuation Plan for Pilgrim Station, located in Plymouth, Massachusetts. This plan is
., designed to protect the health and safety of the public in the event an evacuation is ordered as a protective action in response 1 to an accident at Pilgrim Station. l l
The Evacuation Time Estimate and Traffic Management Plan presented herein is not based on the use of any specific number of reception centers. It should be understood that the number of reception centers does not af fect evacuation time estimates as long as the reception centers are located a suf ficient distance from the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) boundary. The reception centers a cited in this document are located more than ten miles from the EPZ boundary.
In the performance of this effort, all available prior documentation relevant to evacuation planning issues was reviewed.
In addition, work products developed by other consultants were incorporated, where appropriate. Finally, local and State public officials, as well as private citizens, were interviewed. In particular, we wish to express our appreciation to all the Police j Chiefs of the communities within the Pilgrim Station Emergency
( Planning Zone (EPZ) who provided valued guidance in the development
( of .this plan. - '
l Other guidance is provided by documents published by Federal Government agencies. Most important of these are:
Criteria for Preparation and Evaluation of Radiological Er..ergency Response Plans and Preparedness in Support of Nuclear Power Plants, NUREG 0654/ FEMA-REP-1, Rev.1, November 1980.
Analysis of Techniques for Estimating Evacuation Times for Emergency Planning Zones, NUREG/CR-1745, November 1980.
1.1 Overview of the Plan Uodate Process The following outline presents a brief description of the work effort in chronological sequence:
- 1. The initial effort consisted of gathering information:
o Review of existing reports describing past evacuation studies, o Conducted several field surveys of the EPZ highway system and of beach-area traffic conditions.
1-1 Rev. 5
o Developed a survey instrument to solicit data describing the travel patterns, car ownership and household size of the population within the Pilgrim EPZ. This survey also obtained data on the public's projected responses to an emergency at Pilgrim
- Station, o Retained a subcontractor to conduct a stratified random-sample telephone survey of the populace within the Pilgrim EPZ.
o obtained demographic data from State Planning of fices, o Received, and analyzed, aerial photographs of the coastal areas within the Pilgrim EPZ. These photographs were taken on weekends during the Summer, of 1986. Additional Aerial photography was performed during ideal weather conditions on July 5, 1987.
- 2. After reviewing and analyzing this information, the task of preparing the preliminary input stream for the IDYNEV model was undertaken. Individual activities included:
o Estimating the traffic demand based on the available information derived from Census data, from prior i
studies, data provided by local and State agencies and !
l from the telephone survey.
o Employing the procedures specified in the 1994 Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) and the data acquired during the field survey, to estimate the capacities of all highway segments comprising the evacuation routes, o Developing the link-node representation of the evacuation network, which is used as the basis for the computer analyses which calculate the Evacuation Time ;
Estimates (ETE). The IDYNEV System, developed by KLD I for FEMA, was used to perform these calculations.
o Preparing the input stream for the IDYNEV System.
o Executing IDYNEV to provide the initial estimates of evacuation routing and Evacuation Time Estimates (ETE) )
for a single scenario. ;
- 3. Based primarily on the survey results, the distributions of Trip Generation times were estimated for the various population segments: permanent residencs and transients !
(i.e. tourists and employees). !
1-2 Rev. 5
4.
A total of tenreflect evacuation scenarios were defined.
O -
scenarios generation the distribution variation and in in demand, highway These trip capacity, associated with different seasons, day of week, time of day and weather conditions.
- 5. Updated the demand estimation of employees who work within the EPZ, based on more recent information obtained from State Labor agencies.
- 6. Defined a preliminary set of traffic management tactics to for be applied at specified Traffic Control Posts (TCP),
subsequent review by local and State police personnel.
7.
Partitioned the EPZ into Emergency Response Planning Areas (Subareas), then defined a total of 22 " Regions",
where each region consists of a grouping of not necessarily contiguous Subareas. Each region either {
approximates a circular area or a " keyhole" quadrant within the EPZ, as required by NUREG 0654.
- 8. Identified Host Communities associated with each community within the EPZ and developed traffic routing patterns for evacuating vehicles.
- 9. Conducted a survey of police chiefs within the EPZ to I solicit their opinions and recommendations on traffic routing, control and management. The preliminary design (items 6 and 8, above) was used as the basis for discussion. All local law enforcement officers contributed valuable recommendations and all recommendations were integrated into the plan.
- 10. Using the traffic management policies derived in step 9, a complete set of ETE was computed. This set consists of over 220 distinct cases; each case corresponds to the evacuation of a specified !
recion for a specified i evacuation scenari,q. A total of 22 regions and 10 scenarios (see step _4) were considered. i l
- 11. Documented the results of these studies in formats responsive to IUREG 0654.
- 12. Identified Access Control Posts (ACP) at locations along '
the periphery of the EPZ and developed traffic management I control to be applied there. Discussed the need for highway signing at these locations.
- 13. Identified a diversion route circumventing the EPZ.
O 1-3 Rev. 5
h 1.2 Descriotion of the Emercency Planninc Zone (EPZ)
The Pilgrim Station site is located on the Atlantic coast (
in the Town of Plymouth, Massachusetts approximately 40 miles south l of Boston. The Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) for the plume exposure pathway includes all, or part, of 5 communities: Plymouth, Kingston, Duxbury, Marshfield, south of Careswell 3
Street and )
Carver, east of Route 58.
Figure 1-1 displays the general site area including the location of Pilgrim Station, the EPZ boundary, all communities within the EPZ, and the major highways in the area.
The coastal area extending north from the Plymouth-Bourne Town Line to Marshfield is a popular summer tourist attraction. In addition to the beaches, the town of Plymouth draws significant numbers of visitors to its many historic sites. There are many ponds and streams and cranberry bogs in the area west of the coast. This area also is home to Myles Standish State Forest, a major recreational facility.
The highway systen is comprised primarily of two-lane two-way rural roads. The major north-south state routes through the EPZ are Route 3A along the coast; Route 3, a four-lane, limited access highway; and Route 58, in Carver. Route 3 serves as one of the O primary access roads to the Cape Cod area from the north; the other O maj'or access route to Cape Cod is Interstate 495/St' ate Route 25 ',
which lies outside the EPZ.' Major east-west routes in the area are Route 139 in Marshfield, Route 14 in Duxbury, Routes 106 and 27 in Kingston, US Route 44 in Plymouth, and US Route 6 (Cranberry Highway) which lies south of the EPZ in Bourne.
This area enjoys a variable climate with temperature ranging from below zero (F) in the winter to as high as 102 degrees (F) in the summer. Average annual rainfall is about 47 inches while snowfall averages about 37 inches. The monthly variations in temperature and precipitation in Plymouth, Massachusetts over 3 decades is given in Table 1-1.
1.3 Preliminary Activities Since this plan constitutes an update of prior work, it was necessary to familiarize ourselves with the existing plan.
These activities are described below.
O l-4 Rev. 5
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TR203A
1 Table 1-1. Climatic Conditions in Plymouth, MA:
L Year of Record to 1993
)
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.. Temperature ( F) Precipitation (in.)
Normal Normal Daily Daily Daily Monthly Monthly ;
Mean Maximum Minimum Rain Snow January 28.6 35.7 21.6 3.59 12.0 ;
February 30.3 37.5 23.0 3.62 11.3 March 38.6 45.8 31.3 3.69 7.9 April 48.1 55.9 40.2 3.60 0.9 )
l May 58.2 66.6 49.8 3.25 -
June 67.7 76.3 59.1 3.09 -
July 73.5 81.8 65.1 2.84 -
l August 71.9 79.8 64.0 3.24 -
(~S September 64.9 72.8 56.8 3.06 -
tv; October '
54.8 62.7 46.9 3.30 -
November 45.3 52.2 38.3 4.22 1.3 December 33.6 40.4 26.5 4.01 7.5 Source: Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1995, US Department of Commerce. Note: Data is given for reporting stations in Boston. l l
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l Literature Review l i
KLD Associates was provided with copies of documents describing past studies and analyses leading to the development of evacuation plans and of ETE. We also obtained supporting documents
,. from a variety of sources, which contained information needed to form the data base used for conducting evacuation analyses.
Appendix E is a listing of the major sources of information and includes brief descriptions and summaries of the data contained ;
therein.
Field Surveys KLD professional personnel drove the entire highway system within the EPZ and for some distance outside. Each driver recorded the characteristics of each section of highway on audio tape.
These characteristics include:
Number of lanes Posted speed Pavement width Actual free speed Shoulder type & width Abutting land use Intersection configuration Control devices Lane channelization Interchange geometries Unusual characteristics: Geometries: curves, grades fs Narrow bridges, sharp curves, poor pavement, ;
flood warning signs, inadequate delineations, etc.
The audio cassettes were then transcribed; this information was referenced while preparing the input stream for the IDYNEV model. I Telechone Survey A telephone survey was undertaken in order to gather information needed for the evacuation study. Appendix F exhibits the survey instrument. Appendix G contains tabulations of some of the data compiled from the survey returns.
This data was utilized to develop estimates of vehicle occupancy during an evacuation and to estimate elapsed times between notification of an emergency and the start of evacuation trips. This data base was also referenced to estimate the number of transit-dependent residents.
On-Site and Telechone Interviews These interviews consisted primarily of KLD personnel acquiring information which could prove useful for developing an evacuation plan. Participants in these interviews .ncluded town O police and fire chiefs, school superintendents, harbor masters emergency planners, public work supervisors, town managers, elected 1-7 Rev. 5 l
1
l l
l l
fS officials, chamber of commerce personnel, State planning and i)
highway personnel, regional planning commission personnel, State parks personnel.
Develooina the Evacuation Plan s
The overall study procedure to develop Evacuation Time Estimates (ETE) is outlined in Appendix D. Particular attention was focused on estimating tourist traf fic, especially that which is concentrated in the beach areas. Aerial photographs were obtained
- which were used to estimate parking capacity at the beach areas and to obtain counts of vehicles parked at the beach areas.
Ground-based counts of parking capacity were also collected.
Demographic data was obtained from several sources, as detailed later in this report. This data was analyzed and converted into vehicle demand data.
Highway capacity was estimated for each highway segment based on the field surveys and on the principles specified in the 1994 Highway Capacity Manual (HCM). The link-node representation of the physical highway network was developed using large-scale maps and the observations obtained from the field survey. This network is shown in Figure 1-2, with the general directions of evacuating traffic indicated thereon.
(G) The . input stream for the IDYNEV system was then created, 2
chec,ked, and debugged.
Analvtical Tools A variety of analytical tools was employed for this study. The most prominent of these is the IDYNEV (Interactive Dynamic Network Evacuation) computer system which was developed by KLD under contract with the Feceral Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).
IDYNEV consists of three submodels:
o An equilibrium traffic assignment model (for details, see Appendix B) o A macroscopic traffic simulation model (for details, see Appendix C) o An intersection capacity model (for details, see Highway Research Record No. 772, Transportation Research Board, 1980, papers by Lieberman and McShane and by Lieberman).
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1-8 Rev. 5
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f The procedure for applying IDYNEV within the framework of developing an update to the Pilgrim Evacuation Plan is outlined in Appendix D.
Engineering.
Appendix A is a glossary of terms used in Treffic The evacuation analysis procedures are based upon the need to:
o Route traffic along paths of travel that will
- expedite their travel from their respective points of origin to points outside the EPZ
- restrict movement toward Pilgrim Station to the extent j practicable
- disperse traf fic demand so as to avoid focusing demand on a limited number of highways o Satisfy, to the extent possible under emergency conditions, perceived "best" paths out of the EPZ c Move traffic in outbound directions which are generally radial, relative to the Jeration of Pilgrim Station.
A Trip Table, which is a matrix of origin-destination demand volumes, was developed which satisfied the specified linkage i
I between EPZ, communities within the EPZ and host communities outside the censistent with the need for outbound routing patterns described above. The IDYNEV Traffic Assignment model is executed l to produce output which identifies the "best" traffic routing,
)
subject to the design ccaditions outlined abov.e. In addition to this information, (ver'] rough estimates of travel time are provided, together with urn-movement data required by the IDYNEV simulation model.
The simulation model is then executed to provide a detailed description of traffic operations on the evacuation network. T'.is descriptior. enable.1 r.he analyst to identify bottlenecks and to develop cot.ntermeasures which are designed to expedite the movement of vehicles.
As outlined in Appendix D, this procedure consists of an iterative design-analysis-redesign sequence of activities. If properly done, this procedure converges to yield an Evacuation Plan which best services the evacuating public.
1-10 Rev. 5 END l
,q 2. DEMAND ESTIMATION
~~
The estimates developing of demand an evacuation plan. constitute a critical element in components: This estimate consists of three l.
An estimate of population, stratified into groups, in communities within the EPZ.
- 2. An estimate, for each population grouping, of mean occupancy per evacuating vehicle. This estimate is used to determine the number of evacuating vehicles.
- 3. An estimate of potential double-counting of vehicles.
A variation of this approach was applied in order to estimate tourist and beach area traffic. This was necessary since the majority of this traf fic consists of transients, many of whom enter the EPZ from locations outside.
As a result, we relied on empirical observation of the number of vehicles which can physically be accommodated within the beach area and discussions with the proprietors of tourist attractions yielded similar information. This is a valid approach since discussions with public officials confirmed that, with few exceptions, people at these facilities have access to a vehicle.
{V] Thus, the evacuation of people from the beach and tourist areas '
wil'1 be primarily reflected in the number of evacuating private vehicles.
By accurately estimating the number of vehicles at these areas, we have satisfied the input requirements for an evacuation plan which addresses these areas. Estimates of population in these areas can beThus, occupancy.
based on accurate estimates of per-vehicle percon for these areas, more reliable estimates are forthcoming if we reverse the sequence of steps 1 and 2, above, by first estimating the number of evacuating vehicles, then using the vehicle-occupancy figure to estimate population.
During the summer season, vacationers and tourists enter the EPZ in large numbers. These non-residents may dwell within the EFZ for the entire season, for a short period (e.g. one or two weeks),
for a weekend, overnight, or may enter and leave within one day.
Estimates of the size of these population components must be obtained, so that the associated number of vehicles can be ascertained.
The specter of double-counting of people and vehicles must be addressed: a vehicle and its occupants cannot occupy two disparate locations at the same time. Consider a vacationing family that T
d registers at a motel, travels to the beach in the morning, then does some shopping, away from the beach, in the evening before 2-1 Rev. 5 1
1
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4 returning to the motel.
If we consider a scenario where the O accident occurs at about 2:00 Ph when the beaches are most crowded, then this family, _and its vehicle, would most likely be at the beach or some other place away from the motel. If an evening scenario is being studied, then the vehicle would be at a retail parking lot, or perhaps, back at the motel.
Clearly, since this vehicle cannot be at all 3 locations simultaneously, its location at the instant a directive to evacuate is announced, depends on the scenario being studied.
dependsIt isonseen time that the number af vehicles at each location of day. It is clear?y wrono to estimate counts of vehicles by simply adding up the capacities of different types of parking facilities, without considering the whereabouts of the vehicles. For example, motel parking lots which are full at dawn, may be almost empty at noon. Similarly, beach parking lots which are full at noon, may be almost empty at dawn.
Another element that must be considered in an evack2ation plan is the need to provide for transit-dependent people. These people may be youngsters in school, persons in institutions without access to private vehicles or who cannot provide for themselves, as well as residents and tourists who do not have access to a private vehicle.
Trio Generation !
Evacuation trips do not "just happen". These trips are
" generated" at the time the vehicle leaves its " origin" (i.e.
driveway of a residence, motel lot, public parking lot, etc.) to begin the evacuation trip.
Between the time notification of a accident is given by the activation of sirens, to the time that the evacuation trip begins, the evacuees may be performing a sequence of preliminary activities, depending on time-of-day and other scenario considerations:
o Commuters will prepare to leave work and secure their places of business, if necessary, o Commuters will travel home from work, o Families will pack clothes and other provisions, and secure their homes (or farms).
Another time lag is notification time --
the elapsed time between the issuance of the directive to evacuate, and the receipt of this notice by members of the public.
O 2-2 Rev. 5
( These elapsed times will vary from one population group to the next, from one scenario to the next and, of course, from one household to the next. Thus, the trip generation time (i.e. the elapsed time between the notification of the emergency and the beginning of the evacuation trip) will vary from one group of people in a vehicle, to another.
We can state that the time lag associated with each preliminary activity can be represented by a statistical distribution which describes the range of elapsed times for the evacuating public. The survey (see Appendix F) obtained information which quantified most of these distributions; Figure 2-1 displays these distributions.
For each scenario, a series of calculations is performed, using the distributions of Figure 2-1, to obtain the distribution of Trip Generation time.
Experience -- and theory -- indicate that ETE is generally insensitive to this distribution of Trip Generation time, whenever the temporal extent of the trip generation process is significantly less than the evacuation time (ETE). This is generally the case when evacuating traffic experiences extensive congestion.
On the other hand, when congestion is absent, or limited in spatial and/or temporal extent, then travel time can be small ;
relative-to trip generation time. In these cases, 'the ETE will dir'ectly reflect the trip generation time (i.e. ETE r Trip Generation time + [small] travel time).
Section 4 of this report presents a complete discussion of Trip Generation.
Analysis of the population characteristics of the Pilgrim Station EPZ indicates the need to identify three distinct groups:
o Permanent residents - people who are year round residents of the EPZ.
o Seasonal residents and transients - people who reside in the EPZ for a portion of the year, generally, the peak summer season and people who reside outside of the EPZ who enter the area for a specific purpose (shopping, recreation) and then leave the area.
o Employees - people who reside outside of the EPZ and commute to business within the EPZ on a daily hasis.
2-3 Rev. 5
O Figure 2-1. Trip Generation Time Distributions For The General Population 100 ^
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leave Travel Prepare Clear nottrication CY Work Home Home Snow
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0 50 100 150 200 250 Elapsed Time (minutes)
O 2-4 Rev. 5
l l
Estimates of the population and number of vehicles to be expected for each of the population groups will now be presented.
Estimates will be presented by town, and by polar coordinate representation (population rose).
- It is important to note that the population roses displayed herein are for presentation purposes only. The roses are not part of the data base estimates are used to estimate based upon evacuation times. Evacuation time a considerably more detailed representation of the spatial distribution of population. The more detailed representation is seen in Figure 1-2. Node numbers labeled 2000 through 2999 are centroids which represent areas within the EPZ where population groups originate the evacuation trip.
Permanent Residents An accurate estimate of evacuation time must, of necessity, ne based upor. an estimate of the current population of the EPZ.
The second step of the estimation process is the determination of the average number of people who may be expected to occupy evacuating vehicles. Exhibit 2-1 presents the methodology used to determine average vehicle occupancy. Supporting data, presented in Figures 2-2 and 2-3, were obtained from the telephone survey (Appendix G).
N,_./ .
Using an average vehicle occupancy of 2.6, the number of evacuating vehicles servicing the permanent residents may be calculated. Table 2-1 presents these results.
It can be argued that accepting this estimate of permanent residents serves to overstate, somewhat, the number of evacuatino vehicles, especially during the summer. It is certainly rearcnacle to assert that some portion of the population would be on vacation during the summer and would travel elsewhere. A rough estimate of this reduction can be obtained as follows:
- 1. Assume 60 percent of the households vacation over the summer, for a two-week period.
2-5 Rev. 5
('wg EXHIBIT 2-1 LI Estimation of Persons Der Vehicle for the Evacuation of Permanent Residents 1
Case 1: Assume (a) All households with 4 or fewer persons will ride in one car, if a car is available.
(b) Households with 5 or more persons will use 2 cars, if 2 cars are available. If not, they will use 1 car, if available.
Household Number of Number of Number of size Households Vehicles Used Evacuees using (Persons) (1) For Evacuation. (2 ) Private Vehicles (3) 1 66 (0.89) (66) (1) = 59 59 2 176 (0. 9 9 ) (176 ) (1) = 174 348 3 112 (1. 00 ) (112 ) (1) = 112 336 !
4 123 (1. 00 ) (12 3 ) (1) = 123 492 5 81 ( 0.10 ) ( 81) (1) +
( 0. 8 9 ) ( 81) ( 2 ) = 152 405 6+ 41 (0. 07) (41) (1)
(~')
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( 0. 93 ) (41) (2 ) = 79 271 (4)
- I 599 699 1911 Average vehicle occupancy: 1911/699 = 2.73 (1) Ref. telephone Survey (2) To calculate the number of vehicles used for each group of households:
a) Multiply the proportion of households (from Figure 2-3) within the group that will use one vehicle, by the number of households in that group.
b) Multiply the proportion of households (from Figure 2-3) within the group that will use two vehicles, by the number of households in that group and by the number of cars used (2).
l c) Add the values obtained in a) and b). l (3) Product of Household Size and Number of Households with one or more vehicles available.
,_s (4) Based on uverage household size of 6.6 persons. j i \
N/ }
l 2-6 Rev. 5 l l
I
EXHIBIT 2-1 (conc.)
Estimation of Persons Der Vehicle for the Evacuation of Permanent Residents 1
Case 2: Assume (a) All households with 3 or fewer people will.use 1 car, if available.
(b) Half of all households with 4 persons will take 2 cars, if available; the balance will take 1 car.
1 (c) Households with'5 or more persons will use 2 cars, if 2 cars are available. If not, they will use 1 car, if available.
Household Number of Number of Number of size Households Vehicles Used Evacuees using (Persons) 111 For Evacuation (2) Private Vehicles (3) 1 66 (0. 89) (66) (1) = 59 59 2 176 ( 0. 99 ) (176 ) (1) = 174 348 3 112 (1. 00) (112 ) (1) = 112 336 4 123 (0 13)(123)(1) +
O s
( 0. 87 ) (123 ) (0. 5 ) (1)
( 0. 87 ) (123 ) ( 0. 5 ) (2 )
+
= 176 492 2
5 81 ( 0.10 ) ( 81) (1) +
( 0. 89 ) ( 81) ( 2 ) = 152 405 6+ 41 ( 0. 07 ) (41) (1) +
(0. 93 ) (41) (2 ) = 79 271 599 752 1911 Average vehicle occupancy: 1911/752 = 2.54 For planning purposes, we will adopt a somewhat conservative estimate of 2.6 persons / car. This yields an average of (1911/2.6)/599 = 1.23 evacuating vehicles per household.
2-7 !
Rev. 5 i
O Figure 2-2. Household Size Within Pilgrim EPZ so j 40 --
E o 3o -. .
O I. :
1 2 3 4 $ 4 Number of Persons per Household m - ra.. w ov m i
O 2-8 Rev. 5
s Figure 2-3. Auto Ownership Within The Pilgrim EPZ 0 Vehicles 1 Vehicle f 2 Vehicles '- 3 Vehicles 4+ Vehicles 80 - 76 m 67 2 Ti o a f 60 -
57 57 ? 56 o :
55 vp w
H w
d I e ys & W ?!i 2 _.~ -e A e o 40 _
%' b5 E 4@p %
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O 1 2 3 4 5 6+
People per Household Source Tek* phone Survey i
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i Examples: The chart indicates that 11 percent of households with !
one member do not have autos available. Whereas 76 percent of one person households have one car available.
Similarly, a]1 four person households have 1 or more a u t o." s va i _- t'7 r rc
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' a *J e 2 T2 'l ' C '35 '^
t 2-9 Rev. 5
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Table 2-1. Estimated Permanent Resident Population and Number of Evacuating Vehicles
., 1998 1999 1990 Town- 1999 No. of Census Estimated Growth Population Evacuating Town Population Population Rate (4) Estimate Vehicles Plymouth 45,608 49,700 1.08% 50,262(1) 19,332 Kingston 9,045 10,967 2.44% 11,235 4,322 l Carver (2) 6,142 6,380 0.48% 6,411 2,466 Duxbury 14,168 14,700 0.46% 14,768 5,680 l
Marshfield 1,722 1,841 0.84% 1,857 715 (3)
Totals 84,533 32,515 Notes: (1) An additional 25 people residing on Saguish Neck are included in the Plymouth population i (2) It is estimated that 58 percent of the population of 1 Carver resides within the EPZ.
(3) It is estimated that 8 percent of the population of Marshfield resides within the EPZ.
(4) Growth rates were computed on the basis of 1990 census estimates and 1998 local town population estimates.
O 2-10 Rev. 5
' 2. Assume these vacations, in aggregate, are uniformly dispersed over 10 weeks, i.e. 12 percent of the population is on vacation during each two-week interval.
- 3. Assume half of these vacationers leave the area.
On this basis, the resident population would be reduced by 6 -
percent in. the summer and by a lesser amount in the of f-season. The same rationale employees will lead to thetheconclusion that the number of who work within EPZ on a full-time (i.e.
non-seasonal) basis would also be reduced by that percentage over the summer. This six percent reduction translates into about 1,876 i i
vehicles. On the other hand, it is also likely that there is some influx of vacationers to this area who stay at the homes of friends and relatives.
Since we do not have any "hard" data at this time, we have decided to make no adjustment in our demand estimates for permanent residents for the summer scenarios which are studied. ,
Figures 2-4 and 2-5 present estimates of the permanent resident population and evacuating vehicles in the
" roses". form of The data includes those portions of the EPZ which extend 1 beyond 10 miles.
Seasonal Residents and Transients O -
This population group is comprised of the following J
components: summer residents, tourists at beaches, parks, historical sites and recreation areas, occupants of hotels and motels, campers, and day-trippers.
Each of these sources of population will be discussed here. Detailed supporting information is presented in Appendix E.
Su.mer Residents Table 2-2 presents estimates of the number of summer residents on a town-by-town basis. Where specific estimates of the number of summer homes were not available (Kingston and Carver) , the ratio of l
summer homes to permanent residences in Duxbury was applied to the i number of permanent residences in these two towns in order to develop estimates of the number of summer residences there.
Tourists at Beaches. Parks and Historical Sites Table 2-3 presents a summary of population for beaches and ponds. The source data for developing these estimates are:
o Aerial photographs of beach areas during summer, 1986 and 1987 O 2-11 Rev. 5
t-
!O I I 2625 l N i o j
,, EM Bdry NNW 0 i NNE 1
to Miles /
l 13878 l i l 0 l N \ / NE 3281 1 / 0
( 0 m 3o 10597 N 2NX)\" 5 Mues ! i o l 0 M 1591 ' N 17156
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s 2 us. O i 34 x 0 0 l 21476 l H021 IUI" 0 86 i 0 0 E
w 1 1238 31 A'h g 0
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0 3752 \ 1011/ ! 617
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/185 / 364 3846 *
/
l 5876 l 446 0 l 0 l WSW i75: i290 ESE us8 nou ;
0 12 l l 2936 l 0 02 SE l 24M 1 6341 l SSW 4o55 i SSE S
i 84333 Population Totals Ring ! l Cumulative 0 to EM Bounday Ring i Population ! Total l Population 42 Ms. I 4638 l l 42 Ms. ! 4638 2-5 Mt 19444 '3
. as Mt i 24082 5 tout 50906 !! a to ut I 74988 iarn i 9545 !i orn i 84533 Figure 2-4. Permanent Residents 2-12 Rev. 5 l
I
L O l 0 l l i0io j N , O Enman NNW
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0 NNE 10-Miles l 5339 l , O i NW i NE 1281 \
' o 0
1000 , 0 ,
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8556 l N !O IO WNW 6:3- ENE
/
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/0 0
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- 3338 0 0
[o I a254 i 4241 4112 f 3322 3 0 0
f 0 I 476 - O O 1443 \ 388 / ! ) 237 0 {
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- 329
- l 2260 l 187 0 l 0 i I x WSW 676 / 4 ,6 ESE
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Vehicle Totals Toul segment popui.oon Ring { Cumulauve 0 to EPz Boundary Ring Population Total Population i 42 Mt 1784 l 42 Mt 1784 2 5 Mi 7478 45 Mt 9262 I l 5.i0 Mt i9561 4:0 Mt 28823 ,
14EPz 3692 i 4EPz 32515 Figure 2-5. Permanent Resident Vehicles 2-13 Rev. 5 l 1
L
1 Table 2-2. Estimated Population - Summer Residents Estimated l Number of Average Evacu- Vehicle
,, Summer Vehs. Per (2) ating Occupancy No. of Town fjomes (1) Summer Home Vehicles (Per.)(H.H.) People j Plymouth 530 2.2 1166 2.6 3032 Kingston 70 2.2 154 2.6 400 Carver 104 2.2 229 2.6 595 l
\
Duxbury 216 2.2 475 2.6 1235 Mar ^ 'ield 561 2.2 1234 2.6 3208 tAL 1481 3258 ,
8470 l
l l
, J l
Otes: (1) Source material was obtained through discussions with local utility offices (Water Authority) or through 4 discussions with local home-delivery newspapers (see I Appendix E).
(2) It is estimated that the average number of evacuating vehicles per household is 1.23 (see Exhibit 2-1) . The telephone survey (see Appendix G) yields an estimate of 1.96 vehicles per household for communities within the EPZ. Thus, the proportion of vehicles used in an l evacuation is 1.23/1.96 = 0.63. Aerial photographs revealed that on average there are 2.7 vehicles per summer home within the EPZ. Hence, the estimated number of evacuating vehicles per summer home is 0.63 x 2. 7 = 1. 7. However, based upon discussion with Town Building Inspectors or Zoning Departments in 1989, I multiple households (group rentals) are permitted.
Since it' is less likely that members of different households will unify, an estimate of 2.2 evacuating vehicles per summer home is more realistic.
(3) Summer resident population increased by less than 1 percen: between 1989 and 1990, hence no changes were made.
s 2-14 Rev. 5 l
l L -- - - - -
l l
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Table 2-3. Estimated Population - Beaches and Ponds l
l Estimated Vehicle
! No . o f Source of Occupancy No. of o
,. Beach Vehicles Rata (Persons /veh.) People l Whitehorse 940 Aerial Photos 2.54 2387 Beach Morton Park 200 Non-Resident 3 600 Ticket Sales Plymouth Beach 772 Aerial Photos 2.54 1960-Saquish' Neck 257 Aerial Photos 2.54 654 Priscilla Beach 169 Aerial Photos 2.54 430 Manomet Beach 258 Aerial Photos 2.54 655 Gray's Beach 41 Aerial Photos 2.54 103 Sampson Pond 120 Carver 2.5 300 Recreation Comm.
O John's Pond 120 Carver 2.5 300 Recreation Comm.
Duxbury Beach 1804 Aerial Photos 2.54 4583 Green Harbor 1027 Aerial Photos 2.54 2609 Brant Rock 477 Aerial Photos 2.54 1211 TOTALS 6185 15792 Notes: (1) Aerial Photography was performed on July 5,1987 under ideal beach weather conditions.
(2) Population estimates derived from aerial photographs include EPZ residents at the beach.
O 2-15 Rev. 5
e o Discussions with town recreation supervisors on the is.suance of annual beach non-resident permits.
o Vehicular occupancy was observed to be on the order of 2.54 I j
persons per vehicle. However, where discussions with local officials yielded other values of vehicle occupancy, these values were used for the specific site. )
Beach and pond population estimates are based, for the most part, on counts taken from aerial photographs. Consequently, the numbers of people seen include EPZ residents at Strictly speaking, these persons are already included the beach.
in the permanent resident population group. It was decided to accept the double counting of these people for evacuation simulation in order.
to properly replicate the traf fic conditions on beach access roads.
However, transient population " roses" reflect only day-trippers in the beach population.
During the July 4, 1988 holiday weekend, a ' survey was conducted on beaches within the EPZ. The purpose of this effort was to ascertain the point of origin, and transportation modes of people on the beach. The survey was conducted on the approach to the beach areas; people were questioned as they entered the beach.
Results of the survey are presented in Exhibit 2-2. Several conclusions may be drawn from this data: ,
)
o The majority of people surveyed are either residents of EPZ communities, or are staying overnight within the local area. The percentage of day trippers range from about 30%
of the people surveyed at Duxbury to 8% of the people surveyed at Plymouth Beach.
o People who stay overnight in the local area do so primarily in the same community as is the beach.
o The primary mode of transportation to the beach is by car.
In general, less than 3% of the people surveyed indicated they were " dropped of f" at the beach. Significantly, where the beach areas are close to permanent or summer residences (Green Harbor, Brant Rock, Whitehorse, Prisilla, and Manomet Beaches), a significant fraction of the people l surveyed indicates they walked to the beach.
o Vehicular occupancy ranged from 2.26 to 3.31 persons per vehicle with an overall average of 3.06. Vehicle occupancy was found to be somewhat higher in 1988 than in 1987 (2.54 persons per vehicle).
O 2-16 Rev. 5
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- 1
, c. Table 2-4 presents population estimates for Parks and Historic t, Sites. Where parking capacity was available, it was used to estimate peak auto occupancy. Where values of average number of annual, or daily, visitors were obtained, the number of visitors present at any one time during the peak day was estimated.
2 Vehicular occupancy of 2.5 persons per vehicle was used at all sites except Myles Standish State Park where a value of 3.5 persons per vehicle was obtained from the Park Manager.
Tourists at Hotels and Motels Each of the hotels and motels which could be identified within the EPZ was contacted and the following information elicited:
o Number of rooms o Peak period occupancy rate o Proportion of business travelers.
For each establishment, the number of occupied rooms was estimated by applying the peak period occupancy to the number of available rooms. A factor of 0.85 vehicles per occupied room was used to estimate the maximum number of vehicles at each location.
(' This factor is justified by the fact that major motels in Plymouth ;
i ren.t blocks of rooms to bus tours during the peak season. A single !
bus tour may reserve from 18 to 20 hotel rooms. The number of people staying at hotels and motels was estimated using a vehicle occupancy factor of 2.4 persons per vehicle. The results of these analyses are presented on a town-by-town basis in Table 2-5.
Tourists at Camos and Camosites In addition to the public and private campsites which exist within the Pilgrim EPZ, the area is home to a number of children's summer camps. The following procedure was utilized to determine the children's camp estimates:
o Camps identified were contacted and the number of campers ascertained.
o The number of buses required to transport children was estimated using an occupancy rate of 44 and 65 children per bus.
o Buses were assigned a " passenger car equivalency" factor of 2.0.
2-21 Rev. 5
Table 2-4. Estimated Population Parks, Historic Sites Est. Vehicle No. of Occupancy No. of Location vehs. Source of Data Pers./Veh People Plymouth Plantation 700 Parking 2.5 1750 Mayflower II 300 Parking 2.5 750 Myles Standish State Park 1358 Facility Manager 3.5 4753 Plymouth Rock 600 Avg. daily visitors 2.5 1500 Mayflower Society House 6 Avg. daily visitors 2.5 15 Pilgrim Hall Museum 26 Avg. daily visitors 2.5 65 Wm. Harlow House 2 Avg. daily visitors 2.5 5 Sparrow House 6 Avg. daily visitors 2.5 15 Howland House 6 Avg. daily visitors 2.5 15 Spooner House 2 Avg. daily visitors 2.5 5 Antiquarian House 8 Avg. daily visitors 2.5 20 J cranberry World 200 Avg. daily visitors 2.5 500 Jenny Grist Mill 40 Avg. daily visitors 2 . !, 100 Town courthouse 10 Avg. daily visitors 2.5 25 Super Sports 300 Avg. daily visitors 2.5 750 3564 Totals 10268 2-22. Rev. 5 J
l l
A Table 2-4. Estimated Population h Parks, Historic Sites (conc.)
Est. Vehicle No. of Occupancy No. of Location Vehs. Source of Data Pers./Veh People Plymouth Colony Winery 6 Avg. daily visitors 2.5 15 Plymouth Wax Museum 160 HMM est. 2.5 400 Mayflower Experience 20 HMM est. 2.5 50 John Bradford House 8 HMM est. 2.5 20 King Richard's Fairel 1480 office Management 25 3700 Myles Standish Monument 150 Avg. monthly visitors 2.5 375 John Alden House 4 Avg. daily visitors 2.5 10 Duxbury Art Complex 5 Avg. daily visitors 2.5 13 King Caesar House 3 Avg. daily visitors 2.5 8 1836 Totals (This Page) 4591 y 5400 Grand Totals 14859 King Richard's Faire is open for about two months on weekends after Labor Day. Although King Richard's Faire is outside of the EPZ, the access road to the facility discharges traffic onto Route 58 in Carver, a major evacuation route. Consequently, it is prudent to ,
include this attraction. The fair draws approximately !
200,000 people over 19 days, or about 11,000 people per day. If the average length of stay is 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br />, then j about 3,700 people are present at any one time. These
( people use 1,480 vehicles.
2-23 Rev. 5
Table 2-5. Estimated Population Hotels and Motels Estimated No. of No. of 12wn Vehicles (1) Peoole (2) l' Plymouth 471 1130 Kingston 82 197 l
Carver -
Duxbury 16 15 Marshfield -
l Totals 569 1342 Notes: (1) To account for bus tours and for passenger vehicle ;
I occupants who use more than one unit at hotels, a factor of 0.85 vehicles per occupied room is used to estimate numbers of vehicles.
(2) Person estimates are computed as follows:
j Persons = (No. of Rooms) x (Peak Occupancy Rate, %)
l x (0.85 vehicles / room) x (2.4 persons / vehicle) l~
O 2-24 Rev. "
Public and private campgrounds identified were contacted to ascertain the number of available sites and the peak period occupancy rate. One vehicle was assigned to each occupied site.
A value of 2.4 persons per vehicle was assigned to estimate campsite population. The results of these procedures are shown in s
Table 2-6, Estimation of Dav-Trinoers and Elimination of Double-Countina As stated earlier, summing the number of people at attractions (beaches, tourist attractions) and the number of people at lodgings (hotels, campsites) is incorrect due to potential double counting.
Furthermore, it is recognized that one additional population group exists for which estimates are required, the day-trippers.
Day-trippers enter the EPZ for recreational purposes. At the completion of their trip, day-trippers will exit the EPZ.
The procedure developed to estimate day trippers is as follows: ,
1.A. For each community, estimate the number of day-trippers at the beach based on the Beach Utilization Survey results.
B. For Kingston, estimate the number of day-trippers at the Independence Mall.
- 2. For each community, estimate the number of day-trippers at tourist attractions other than beaches and the Independence Mall as follows:
A. Identify those groups of transients who are not likely to travel to these tourist attructionc on a typical weekend. This group of transients include:
Businessmen - Discussions with hotel managers indicate 29 percent of their peak period guests are businessmen.
All Children at Camps 95 percent of summer home residents - Given some 20 weekend days in a season implies that, on average, 5 percent of summer home residents will visit the attractions on a particular weekend day. Thus, 95 percent will not.
One half of all persons at campsites.
O O B. Therefore, transients who do travel to these 2-25 Rev. 5
T-attractions are hotel tourists (71 percent of
[\~ occupied rooms), 5 percent of summer home residents and 50 percent of all people at occupied campsites.
C. Estimate the number of people at these attractions.
D. Estimate the number of day-trippers at tourist attractions excluding beaches and the Independence Mall.
Day-trippers at tourist (People at these tourist 1 attractions other than sites) - (EPZ residents beaches and the =
at these tourist sites)
Independence Mall
. Table 2-7 present day-tripper computations for each town. The average occupancy of day-tripper vehicles is approximately 2.8 persons per vehicle.
O .
O 2-26 Rev. 5 l
l
I.
i p
(
Table 2-6. Estimated Population Camps and Campsites Camos No. of No. of No. of Vehicle h Children (1) Buses (2) Eauivalents (3)
Plymouth 1765-3440 46-81 Kingston 162 210-300 5-8(1 van) 10 Carver 45-125 2-4 8 Duxbury -426-631 10(2 vans)-16 32 Marshfield 0 0 0 Camosites
';ehicle .
No. of Occupancy No. of h Peoole (Persons /Veh) Vehicles Plymouth 3658 2.4 Kingston 1525 0 -
0 Carver 1000 2.4 Duxbury 416 O 0 -
0 Marshfield 0 -
0 '
Total 4658 1941 1
Notes: (1) A range of values is given representing the year to year The variations in numbers of children and buses.
bold entry is the value used for the ETE analysis.
(2) Bus occupancy of 44 and 65 children per bus is assumed.
(3) One bus is equivalent to 2 passenger cars.
C\
V 2-27 Rev. 5
Table 2-7A. Estimation of Day-Trippers and Total iN Number of Transients in Plymouth l
l Source
,- 1. Day-trippers at the beach Table 2-3 581 Exhibit 2-2
, 2. Day-trippers at tourist attractions, excluding beaches
! A. People within the EPZ who do not travel to these attractions Businessmen (29% of hotel, motel occupancy) 327 Table 2-5 Children's Camps 3,440 Table 2-6 Summer Residents (95% of summer home residents) 2,880 Table 2-2 Campsites (50% of occupied campsites) 1.829 Table 2-6 Total 8,476 '
B. People within the EPZ who do travel to these attractions Overnight tourists (71% of hotel, motel occupancy) 803 Table 2-5 Summer Residents (5% of summer home residents) 152 Table 2-2 (f-- ) Campsites j (50% of occupied campsites) 1,829 ' Table 2-6 l Total 2,784
{
C. People at these attractions Parks, recreation and historic attractions 10,733 Table 2-4 Ponds 600 Table 2-3 l Total 11,333 l D. Day-trippers at tourist attractions, excluding beaches
((2C) - (2B)]; 11,333 - 2,784 = 8,549
- 3. Day-trippers at all attractions l
[(1) + (2D)]; 581 + 8,549 = 9,130
- 4. Total' number of non-boating transients
((2A) + (2B) + (3)];
8,476 + 2,784 + 9,130 = 20,390 l
l O
(._.)
2-28 Rev. 5 L
t- 1
)
Table 2-7B. Estimation of Day-Trippers and Total O. Number of Transients in Kingston Source 1.A. Day-trippers at the beach Table 2-3/
, 0 Exhibit 2-2 1
B. Day-trippers at the Independence Mall 1,219 Appendix E Total 1,219
- 2. Day-trippers at tourist attractions, excluding beaches j A. People within the EPZ who do not travel to these 1 attractions f' Businessmen (29% of hotel, motel occupancy) 56 Table 2-5 Children's Camps 210 Table 2-6 Summer Residents (95% of summer home residents) 380 Table 2-2 Campsites .
(50% of occupied campsites) 0 Table 2-6 Total 646 B. People within the EPZ who do travel to these attractions Overnight tourists (71% of hotel, motel occupancy) 136 Table 2-5
(
Summer Residents
' (5% of summer home residents) 20 ' Table 2-2 -
Campsites (50% of occupied campsites) 0 Table 2-6 Total 156 C. People at these attractions Parks, recreation and historic attractions 20 Table 2-4 Ponds 0 Table 2-3 Total 20 D. Day-trippers at tourist attractions-, excluding beaches and Independence Mall ((2C) - (2B)}; 150*
- 3. Day-trippers at all attractions
((1) + (2D)];.1,219 + 150 = 1,369
- 4. Total number of non-boating transients
[(2A) + (2B) + (3));
646 + 156 + 1,369 = 2,171
- A nominal estimate of 150 people for day-trippers-at attractions other than the beach or the-Independence Mall is used because the estimated number of peopAe drawn to O attractions in Kingston is satisfied by the transients already in Kingston.
2-29 Rev. 5
i 1
I 1 l \
i i l
('] Table 2-7C. Estimation of Day-Trippers and Total s ,/
Number of Transients in Carver
- 1. Source Day-trippers at the beach Table 2-3 0 Exhibit 2-2
- 2. Day-trippers at tourist attractions, excluding beaches \
A. People within the EPZ who do not travel to these (
l attractions Businessmen (29% of hotel, motel occupancy) 0 Table 2-5 Children's Camps 125 Table 2-6 Summer Residents (95% of summer home residents) 565 Table 2-2 Campsites j
(50% of occupied campsites) 500 Table 2-6 '
Total 1,190 -
\
B. People within the EPZ who do travel to these attractions Overnight tourists l (71% of hotel, motel occupancy) 0 Table 2-5 Summer Residents j
,_s (5% of summer home residents) 30 Table 2-2
'l l
( Campsites L/ (50% of occupied campsites) 500 I
Table 2-6 Total 530 C. People at these attractions ;
Parks, recreation and historic I attractions 3,700 Table 2-4 l Ponds 600 Table 2-3 Total 4,300 D. Day-trippers at tourist attractions, excluding beaches
((2C) - (2B)]; 4,300 - 530 = 3,770
- 3. Day-trippers at all attractions
((1) + (2D)]; O + 3,770 = 3,770
- 4. Total number of non-boating transients
((2A) + (2B) + (3)];
1,190 + 530 + 3,770 = 5,490 g
i i G
2-30 Rev. 5
Table 2-7D. Estimation of Day-Trippers and Total O Number of Transients in Duxbury Source
, 1. Day-trippers at the beach Table 2-3 1,316 Exhibit 2-2
- 2. Day-trippers at tourist attractions, excluding beaches A. People within the EPZ who do a2t travel to these attractions Businessmen (29% of hotel, motel occupancy) 21 Table 2-5 Children's Camps 631 Table 2-6 Summer Residents (95% of summer home residents) 1,173 Table 2-2 Campsites (50% of occupied campsites) 0 Table 2-6 Total 1,825 -
B. People within the EPZ who do travel to these attractions Overnight tourists (71% of hotel, motel occupancy) 52 Table 2-5 Summer Residents (5% of summer home residents) 62 Table 2-2 O ,
Campsites (50% of occupied campsites) 0 ' Table 2-6 '
Total 114 C. People at these attractions Parks, recreation and historic attractions 406 Table 2-4 Ponds 0 Table 2-3 Total 406 D. Day-trippers at tourist attractions, excluding beaches
[(2C) -
(2B)); 406 - 114 = 292
- 3. Day-trippers at all attractions
[(1) + (2D)); 1,316 + 292 = 1,608
- 4. Total number of non-boating transients
[(2A) + (2B) + (3));
i 1,825 - 114 + 1,608 = 3,547
[\
2-31 Rev. 5
Table 2-7E. Estimation of Day-Trippers and Total (Q_/ Number of Transients in Marshfield Source
- 1. Day-trippers at the beach Table 2-3 804 Exhibit 2-2
- 2. Day-trippers at tourist attractions, excluding beaches A. People within the EPZ who do D21 travel to these attractions Businessmen (29% of hotel, motel occupancy) 0 Table 2-5 Children's Camps 0 Table 2-6 Summer Residents (95% of summer home residents) 3,048 Table 2-2 Campsites (50% of occupied campsites) 0 Table 2-6 Total 3,048 B. People within the EPZ who do travel to these attractions Overnight tourists (71% of hotel, motel occupancy) 0 Table 2-5 Summer Residents (5% of summer home residents) 160 O ;
Campsites (50% of occupied campsites) 0 Table 2-2
' Table 2-6 Total 160 C. People at these attractions Pa 9a , recreation and historic accractions 0 Table 2-4 Ponds 0 Table 2-3 Total 0 D. Day-trippers at tourist attractions, excluding beaches
[(2C) -
(2B)); 150* A
- 3. Day-trippers at all attractions
[(1) + (2D)]; 804 + 150 = 954
- 4. Total number of non-boating transients
((2A) + (2B) + (3));
3,048 + 160 + 954 = 4,162
- A nominal estimate of 150 people for day-trippers at attractions other than the beach is used because the estimated number of people drawn to attractions in Marshfield is satisfied by the transients already in Marshfield.
O 2-32 Rev. 5
Boaters, b
The EPZ for Pilgrim Station encompasses an area which is popular with recreational and commercial boaters. The Towns of Plymouth, Kingston, Duxbury and Marshfield have many facilities to service the boating public.
These facilities include marinas, yacht clubs, town wharfs and public access ramps. Since it may be 1 i
expected that, for summer scenarios, people will be boating within the off-shore region of the EPZ, it is prudent to estimate this population.
{
Contacts were established with town harbor masters, marina operators, and yacht club stewards to estimate the number of boats which may be expected. In addition, aerial photographs of the coastal region were used to count the number of boat trailers at ;
some public launch ramps. Specifics of this data collection process are presented in Appendix E.
It is likely that many of the boats in use belong to people who have been counted as part of the permanent population and summer home residents. It will be assumed that 75 percent of boats in use belong to these population segments. Further, it is assumed that each boat in use implies a single vehicle on shore. The average. occupancy of these vehicles is assumed to be 2.5 persons.
Table 2-8 summarizes the boating estimates.
A town-by-town summary of the transient population is !
presented in Table 2-9. Estimates of transient population and of evacuating vehicles are presented in the format of " roses" in Figures 2-6 and 2 '.
Emolovces l 1
The procedure utilized to estimate the number of employees who enter the EPZ each day involves a number of steps:
- 1. Estimate current total employment for each town
- 3. Estimate the number of people in each community who walk to work, or work at home
- 4. Determine the number of employees who arrive in each town who live beyond the EPZ boundary.
Each of these steps will be discussed.
33 Rev. 5
1 l
,CN, Table 2-8. Estimated Boating Population v
l Total No. of Transient No. of No. of Town Boats in Use Boats in Use Vehs. People i (1) (2) (3) !
Plymouth 463 116 116 290 Kingston 200 50 50 125 Duxbury 825 206 206 515 Marshfield 270 68 68 170 i
TOTALS 1758 440 440 1100 !
Notes: (1) Assumed 25 percent of boats in use by non-EPZ ;
residents and previously identified transients. '
O
'q ,) (2) 1 vehicle on-shore per boat. -
(3) Vehicular occupancy is 2.5 persons per vehicle.
ps
\._]
2-34 Rev. 5 1
]
l C Table 2-9. Summary of Transient Population Plymouth- Kinoston Carver Duxburv Marshfield
,. Summer. Homes 3032 400 595 1235 3208 Hotel, Motel 1130 197 0 15 0 Campers 3440 210 125 631 0 Campsites 3658 0 1000 0 0 Day-trippers 9130 1369 3770 1608 954 Boaters 290 125 0 515 170 Total 20680 2301 5490 4004
- 4332 Note: The values presented in this table are the peak transient
\m- population for each town. The peak transient population ;
within the Pilgrim EPZ occurs during the summer tourist season (Scenarios 1 and 2). The values presented here therefore represent Scenarios 1 and 2 ging the number of people at King Richard's Faire. It should be noted that peak attendance at King Richard's Faire occurs after Labor Day. This fact is reflected in the transient population roses on a scenario by scenario basis.
O 2-35 Rev. 5
p iO !
l 59 I N ; O i ErZ sen~
NNW 0 NNE 0 0 l 2572 ] t .
l 0 l NW NE .
0 '
5857 0
2026 2926 l \5 Mil.s 0 l 0 l WNW 0 ' '
O ENE 244g 0 1212 0 0
/\ \
2-uii 0 '
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f 0 0 0 ,
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} 67L2 j 779 , 16M '
O 4278 'O -
0 0 O W
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0 5566 l
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[ ,, 30 ESE 2684 /
0 1 8250 1 SW l' i .3 l O
\
' 852 -
3379 ;
Population Totals popuiuon Ring Cumulative O to EPZ Boundary i Ring Population Total ' Population l 0 2 Ms. 299 0 2 Mi. 299 l i 2 5 Mt. 7740 0-5 Mi. ! 8039 5 10 Mi. 21054 i 0-10 Ms. 29093 10 EPZ 4009 il 0-EPZ l 33102 Figure 2-6. Transient Population Scenarios 1,2 2-36 Rev. 5
O
, 0 I ' 27n i N ' O j m nar, NNW 0 NNE IS-l I iO0si I o i NW
- NE I ~21
/ -
o 2302 0 ,
7" /
,,,, ;- , s-Ma.
o ! O i WNW 0 s
\ /
s o ENE
/ i
\ -,
9eo \ 475 0 0 /
0 0 \ '- \
/ 3 l 187 /0 0 l 0
' 649
- 631 l 0 305 ', 1677 10 o. 0 E W '
O ii 0 I' O O ,0 126 0 272 0 0 o 423
\
126 l 2182 / , .
0 l 0 i ;
/
5VSW - 334 ; ,,,
ESE 1052 \
, \ 0
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- , SE O
114 -
nui'i Vehicle Totals Tal 5's=' '
Ring Cumulative o ,,'g[ol Ring Population Total Population 0 2 Mi !!7 42 Ma 117 2-5 Mi 3034 45 Mi. 3151 i 510 Mi 8259 I 010 Mi 11410 -
10 EPZ 1571 4EPZ 12981 l Figure 2-7. Transient Population Vehicles Scenarios 1,2 0 2-37 Rev. 5
- 1. Estimate current total employment.
Growth in employment between 1990 and 1999 was estimated by computing an annual rate of growth based upon Massachusetts Department of Employment and Training
' statistics. Table 2-10 presents the 1999 estimated employment for each town.
Table 2-11 summarizes the employment estimates by town.
The balance of this discussion will focus on Plymouth, Kingston, Carver and Duxbury (with a total 1999 estimated number of workers of 31,580; see Table 2-11). At the conclusion of the analysis, results will be applied to Marshfield. The reason for this approach is the need to use the telephone survey results. Survey resul.ts were not available for Marshfield.
Table 2-13 presents an origin-destination matrix for home to work trips within the Pilgrim EPZ. Table 2-13 is based upon the telephone survey. Data from this table is used
^ to develop the number of jobs in the EPZ filled by EPZ residents:
Plymouth (215/754) x (31,580) = 9,005 Kingston (41/754) x (31,580) = 2,047 Carver (7/754) x (31,580) = 293 Duxbury (48/754) x (31,580) =-2,010 l
I O 2-38 Rev. 5 l
Table 2-10. 1999 Estimated Employment within the Pilgrim EPZ 1990 1996 Annual 1999 Correction Employ- Employ- Growth Employ-Town Factors (1) ment ment (2) ment (3 )
Plymouth 1.12 16,064 17,438 1.38% 20,349 Kingston 1.20 4,657 5,118 1.59% 6,438 Carver (4) 1.82 1,298 1,579 3.32% 3,170 (1,839)
Duxbury 1.31 2,255 2,255 0.00%
Marsnfield 2.954 1.07 4,200 4,224 0.10% 4,533 (5)
(363)
Notes: (1) The data obtained from the State of Massachusetts shows lower employment than actual town employment because State data does not include some categories of employment e.g. workers with no state disability O ,
insurance or workmen's compensation. Correction factors are used to adjust the MDET data. '
(2) Compound annual growth rate based upon Mass. Dept.
of Employment and Training data (MDET).
(3) The 1999 estimate is based upon the 1996 MDET data to which the annual growth rate is applied for 3 years and then adjusted using the correction factors.
(4) 58 percent of Carver lies within the EPZ. 1999 EPZ employment estimate is shown in parentheses.
(5) 8 percent of Marshfield lies within the EPZ. 1999 EPZ' employment estimate is shown in parentheses.
{
O l 2-39 Rev. 5
Table 2-11. 1999 Estimated Number of Workers within the Pilgrim EPZ 1999 Worker Town Estimate Plymouth 20,349 Kingston 6,438 Carver (1) 1,839 Duxbury 2,954 Marshfield (2) 363 Notes:
(1) 58 percent of Carver lies within the EPZ. The figures shown include this factor.
(2) 8 percent of Marshfield lies within the EPZ. The figures shown include this factor. ,
l 2-40 Rev. 5
1 Table 2-12. Comparison of 1999 Worker Estimates Based upon Employment and Telephone Survey Results 1
1
- 1999 Est.
Survey 1999 Survey Survey Survey Employ-Town Sample Pop Est. Scale Workers Est. ment Plymouth 1,163 50,262 43.22 453 19,578 20,349 Kir.gston 244 11,235 46.05 107 4,927 6,438 l l
l Carver 121 6,411 52.98 52 2,755 1,839 Duxbury 396 14,768 37.29 142 5,296 2,954 34,555 31,580
)
l 2-41 Rev. 5 l
Table 2-13. : Employee Origin-Destination Trip Table Total Trip Total -Trip Destinations Total Non-Oriains Trios Plymouth Kinoston Carver Duxbury EPZ EPZ Plymouth 453 172 15 3 7 197 256 Kingston- 107 19 15 1 7 42 65 Carver 52 8 4 3 3 18 34 Duxbury 142 16 7 0 31 54 88 Total 754 215 41 7 48 311 .443 Source: Telephone Survey O _
t O
2-42 Rev. 5
l
,o 3. Estimate the number of people who walk to work, or work
() at home.
The 1990 Census data yields information on the number of non-commuters in each town. This figure can be updated to provide a 1999 estimate by applying annual employee growth estimates (see Table 2-10). Consequently, No. of Jobs Filled Town by Non-Commuters Plymouth 1,451 Kingston 297 Carver 207 Duxbury 593
- 4. Determine the number of employees who arrive in each town who live beyond the EPZ boundary.
Table 2-14 presents the development of these figures for the four towns addressed in the telephone survey. The ratio: -
Jobs held by non-EPZ commuters: No. of jobs within EPZ is used to estimate the figure for Marshfield:
[j v . ,
No. of jobs in Marshfield 363 (Table 2-10)
Ratio 16,061/31,580 = 0.509 (Table 2-14) '{i of jobs held by non-EPZ residents No. of Marshfield jobs held by non-EPZ residents (0.509 x 363) 185 Employee vehicle occupancy 1.18 (1990 Census)
No. of Marshfield vehicles 157 Table 2-15 presents a summary of the numbers of employees who enter the EPZ daily. Figures 2-8 and 2-9 present the data of employee population from outside the EPZ and their estimates of evacuating vehicles in the " rose" format.
1 Other Vehicles There will be vehicles traveling through the EPZ (external-external trips) at the time of the accident. It is l reasonable to expect that, at the time evacuation gets under way, '
these through travelers will also be evacuating since they are already in their cars. Many vehicles traveling through the EPZ do i so on Route 3. Table 2-16 presents estimates of peak hour volumes on Route 3 based upon MDPW traffic counts. These volumes are
,- applied until access control becomes ef fective in diverting traf fic l
(,I l 2-43 Rev. 5 l
l
Table 2-14. Estimated Number Employees Who
' Enter the EPZ to Work and the Associated Number of Vehicles Town No. of Jobs Jobs Jobs Employ-Jobs Held by Held by Held by ees per Emplv/ce Within EPZ Non- Non-EPZ Vehicle Vehicles EPZ Res. Comm. Res.
Plymouth 20,349 9,005 1,451 9,893 1.17 8,456 Kingston 6,438 1,717 297 4.424 1.19 3,718 Carver 1,839 293 207 1,393 1.13 , 1,233 1
Duxbury 2,954 2,010 593 351 1.14 308 Total 31,580 13,025 2,548 16,061 13,715 '
l l
Column:
l (1) From Table 2-11 (2) Table 2-13 [ Trips to town / Total Trips]*EPZ Employment (Table 2-12). Example: Plymouth, [215/754)*31,580 = 9,005 (3) Data on Page 2-43 (4) (1)-(2)-(3) l (5) 1990 Census Data I
l l
l l
A U
2-44 Rev. 5
7 l
/~T Table 2-15. Estimated Number Employees Who
() Enter the EPZ and the Number of Their Vehicles That Will Evacuate
.- No. of No. of Town Employees Vehicles Plymouth 9,893 8,456 Kingston 4,424 3,718 Carver 1,393 1,233 Duxbury 351 308 Marshfield 185 157 Totals 16,246 13,872 1
I'%
'L 2-45 Rev. 5
Table 2-16. Route 3 Traffic Estimates
(}
l Average Directional Daily Peak Hour Season Traffic Peak Hour Volume ADT (1) Factor (Veh/Er)
Peak 42,315 0.10 2,116 Off-Peak 31,843 0.15 2,388 (Midweek)
Notes: 1. Source: MDPW, 1997 Counts. Peak season uses the highest monthly ADT, August.
1 0
2-46 Rev. 5
O , 0 N
I ins l t 0 i EFZ Bdry NNW 0
~
NNE wwu.
l 351 l '
l 0 i NW ,
NE O
j
\ I j 5691 l j 5 MM. / 0 l 0 l WNW 30i s, y \O \ ENE l
4363 0 10 0 ,/ '
O i
tw. O
, ; \
0 0 I 3590 l 463 1050 f 2077
' O ,
i O O O! E 260 0
{ 0 0 1876 0
/ , 376 . O
\ 231 j o \944
.O ' 2139 l 470
\
0 0
l 0 l WSW 476 !,\0 ESE
\i '\ 0
\
l 470 l ',
' g40 SW
' 'SE
,07 _
f, SSW i229 -
SSE S
i 16246 w% Population Totals !
Populaeon !
Ring Cumulative
, Ring i Population Total Population 0 2 Mr. t133 0 2 Mo 1133 2-5 Mr. 4915 0 5 Me 6048 5-10 Mi. 8620 410 Mt 14668 l 10'E7Z 1578 4EPZ 16246 I Figure 2-8. Employees within the EPZ Who Live Outside the EPZ 2-47 Rev. 5
1 lO I 0 !
I is7 1 N : 0 ;
EM Bdry
.- NNW 0 NNE 0
\i 0 1 208 ] g / l 0 }
NW / NE 98 i
/ o l57 0 /
2!0 j 4830 -l \ k 5Mb 0 l 0 l WNW 25 0 ENE
~
/ \ 2. Miles /0 878 0 0 0 l 3075l 410 88' l 0
\l/
'~
t 0
l 0 l 1777 l0 0 0 0 E
W i 0 O 8 0, f
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1012 0 32: 0
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e iB36 1 402 o l 0 j WSW 407 O ESE O
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SW 0 0 l i , , SE i I ** I 807 !
l SSW
- SSE S J i i3s72 Vehicle Totals T "I ks'"" i Rin8 ! Cumuladve )
reputanos .' ri i O to u'Z % !
Ring Population i Total Population ,
t 0 2 Mt 968 } 0 2 Mt ! 968 ,
I 2 5 Mt I 4201 'I 45 Mi 5169 5 10 Mt I 7320 4 410 Mt I 12489
{
10LEPZ l 1383 !' 4EPZ 13872 l Figure 2-9. Employee Vehicles which j Join in the Evacuation !
2-48 Rev. 5 I i
1
g from Route 3 at the EPZ boundaries. It is estimated that the total number of through vehicles within the EPZ at the time evacuation is directed is between 2500 and 3000 vehicles.
Table 2-17 presents a summary of all population estimates aggregated by evacuation subareas.
C)
'J ,,
l l
O 2-49 Rev. 5
Table 2-17. Pilgrim Station EPZ Population By Subarea 1999 Estimate Evacuation Population Category subareas Permanent Residents Transients Employees 1 5,002 1,568 1,695 2 6,521 1,296 1,652 3 12,118 5,160 4,346 4 25 1,466 0 5 6,411 8,600 660 6 12,267 2,153 706 7 7,904 435 835 8 11,235 2,301 4,423 9 14,768 0 -
10 1,857 4,001 4,332 351 185 Il 6,425 1,790 1,393 Totals 54,533 33,102 16,246 All scenarios scenarios scenarios 1, 2 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 l
l l
2-50 Rev. 5 :
End i
i
- 3. ESTIMATION OF HIGHWAY CAPACITY The ability of the road network to service vehicle demand is a major factor in determining how rapidly an evacuation can be completed. It is, therefore, necessary to know the capacities of
., the available roadways.
In general, the capacity of a facility is defined as the maximum hourly rate at which persons or vehicles can reasonably be expected to traverse a point or uniform section of a lane of '
roadway during a given time period under prevailing roadway, traffic and control conditions. (From the 1994 Highway capacity Manual.)
In discussing capacity, different operating conditions have been assigned alphabetical designations, A through F, to generally reflect varying traffic operational characteristics. These designations have been termed " Levels of Service" (LOS). For example, LOS A connotes free-flow and high-speed, operating conditions; LOS F represents a forced flow condition. LOS E describes traffic operating at or near capacity.
Because of the ef fect of weather on the capacity of a roadway, it is necessary to adjust capacity figures to represent estimated l road conditions during inclement weather. Based on limited e empirical data, weather conditions such as heavy rain reduce the values of capacity for highways by approximately 20 percent. For -
snowy weather conditions during the winter months, we have estimated capacity reductions of approximately 25 percent relative ;
to normal weather conditions. We also reduce free flow speeds for inclement weather conditions: 20 percent for rain, 25 percent for snow. I In the congested traffic environment which is often characteristic of an evacuation scenario, travel time on a roadway I section is, to a large extent, determined by the capacity of that '
section. For that reason, estimates of roadway capacity must be ;
determined with great care. Because of its importance, a brief i discussion of the major factors which influence capacity, is presented in this section.
l The major factors which control capacity include:
l o On the approach to intersections 1 -
Saturation queue discharge headways l -
Turning movements Competing traffic streams Control policy, if any l -
Traffic Composition l %.p] -
Approach geometrics and channeli::ation 3-1 Rev. 5
i
/
l r o Along sections of roadway k -
Roadway geometrics Traffic composition
,, o General considerations Weather conditions Pavement conditions Lighting Capacity Estimations on Approaches to Intersections At-grade intersections are apt to become the first bottleneck l locations under heavy traffic volume conditions. This characteristic reflects the need to allocate access time to the respective competing traffic streams by exerting some form of control. During evacuation, however, control at critical intersections, will often be provided by traffic control personnel assigned for that purpose, whose directions may supercede traffic control devices.
The per-lane capacity of an approach to an intersection can be expressed in the following form:
I 3600 (G-L) 3600
, C Ocap,m = h
- E '
m C hm III where Ocap,m = Capacity of traffic on an approach, which execute movement, m, upon entering the intersection; vehicles per hour (vph) hm = Mean queue discharge headway of vehicles on an approach, which are executing movement, m; seconds per vehicle Gm =
The mean duration of GREEN time servicing vehicles on an approach, which are executing movement, m, for each control cycle; seconds L = The mean " lost time" for each control cycle
! seconds C = The mean duration of each control cycle; seconds Pm = The proportion of time allocated for vehicles
,, executing movement, m, from an approach. This value is specified as part of the lG) treatment.
control m =
The movement executed by vehicles after they enter 3-2 Rev. 5
l 1
l the intersection: through, left-turn, right-turn, diagonal.
eO l
i The turn-movement-specific mean discharge headway A, depends
! in a complex way upon many factors: roadway geometrics, turn l." percentages, the extent of conflicting traf fic streams, the control 4 i
- treatment, and others. A primary factor is the value of !
" saturation queue discharge headway", h sat, which applies to i
! through vehicles which are not impeded by other conflicting traf fic streams. This value, itself, depends upon many factors including motorist behavior, but is relatively straightforward to determine empirically in the field Formally, we can w ite, hm=fm (hsat, F, 1 F2, -)
where
)
h sat =
Saturation discharge headway for through vehicles; seconds per vehicle ,
F1, F2= The various known factors influencing h m fm (-) = Complex function relating h m to the known (or estimated) values of h sat, F,1 F2 p The estimation of A for specified values of h satt F, 1 F, '
( is undertaken by a mathematical model2* which has been programmed 2 ...
into the Traffic Assignment and Traffic Simulation software of the IDYNEV System.
condition:
The resulting values for A always satisfy the 1
i l A 2. h,.c l
l That is,'the turn-movement-specific discharge headways are always more than, or equal l
through vehicles.
to, the saturation discharge headway for 3 l
{
)
i It is seen that, given the ability to determine A from h . ,
i the determination of capacity of the approaches to intersections depends upon obtaining estimates of h.. .
Such estimates were obtained empirically at representative intersections throughout the EPZ. In all cases, the values of hsat used in developing the 2
Lieberman, E., " Determining Lateral Deployment of Traffic on an Approach to an intersection". McShane, W.
& Lieberman, E.," Service Rates of Mixed Traffic on the O far Left Lane of an Approach". Both papers appear in
( Transportation Rosenrch Record 772, 1980.
3-3 Rev. 5 l
i
- evacuation plan represent conservative estimates 2 based on this empirical data.
Specifically, observed values for h.e ranged from 2.1 to 2.4 sec/veh; higher (more conservative) figures were adopted based on capacities which were estimated using the procedures of the 1985 Highway Capacity Manual. These estimates are described
,. later.
To summarize the foregoing discussion:
o The saturation queue discharge headways, h .e, for through vehicles can be quantified by empirical observation o The turn-movement-specific headways, h., are then calculated, taking into account the effects of turn movement percentages, link geometry and other factors o With the control treatment prescribed as part of the evacuation plan, the value of P, may be defined o The per-lane capacity for each turn movement is then formed from equation (1).
Cacacity Estimation Alpnc Sections of Hichway The capacity of highway sections --
as distinct from approaches to intersections -- is a function of roadway geometrics, ;
traffic composition (e.g. percent heavy trucks and buses in the tra'ffic stream) 'and, of course, motorist behavior. There is a fundamental relationship which relates service volume (i.e. the number of vehicles which can pass a point in a given time period) to traffic density. Figure 3-1 describes this relationship.
As indicated there, the service volume increases as density increases, until the service volume attains its maximum value, Ve, which is the capacity of the highway section. Note that as density increases beyond this " critical" value, the rate at which traffic can be serviced (i.e. the service volume) declines below capacity.
Therefore, in order to realistically represent traffic performance during congested conditions (i.e. when density exceeds the 2
Interestingly, studies have shown that h,,, decreases (i.e. capacity increases) during periods of congestion, relative to that during off-peak traffic conditions.
This behavior reflects the fact that motorists are more attentive and are highly motivated to reduce their s travel time, during congested conditions. Our estimates ;
do not include this beneficial effect.
3-4 Rev. 5
- I Incrummed Isaar.. shade intnemenoms Free.W Traale; w prudem d.tarb.asm and Semyandgo hade asesreselas 6e redused spends a n.m a uwreene speed v.nameh aparanums e e W so ,, d. . .s w' =6-a d = - ;
>i! c 'c 4 c >4
>l I c.p n --- -
m a
s.n v E - __ _ _
- e
.E "
.M c .
I. .
b
- o .
.y .
C .
M '. .,
Traffic Density (Vehicles / Mile)
Figure 3-1. Fundamental Relationship between Wlume and Density i
/
\
3-5 Rev. 5
i 1
\ " critical" value), it is necessary to estimate the service volume, Vr , under congested conditions. This value, Vr, which is less than
' capacity, Ve , should be used for estimating evacuation times, and whenever congested conditions prevail, f The value of V, can be expressed as:
Vr =R
- Ve where R = Reduction factor which is less than unity.
Based on empirical data collected on freeways, we have employed a value of R = 0. 85. It is important to mention that some investigators, on analyzing data collected on freeways, conclude ,
that little or no reduction in capacity occurs even at Level of '
Service, F. While there is conflicting evidence on this subject, i we will again adopt the conservative approach and use a lower value of capacity, Vr, during LOS F conditions.
The estimated value of capacity, Ve , is based primarily upon the type of facility (e.g. controlled access highway such as State Route 3, uncontrolled access highway such as Route 3A) and on roadway geometrics. Clearly, a winding narrow road has significantly lower service volume than does Route 3. Sections of l
roadway with poor geometrics are characterized by:
(\/) o Lower free-flow speeds
)
than on highways ~ with good geometrics.
o Longer headways separating moving vehicles.
The first factor increases travel time when conditions are undersaturated. The latter factor produces lower service volumes, thereby reducing capacity.
The procedure used here was to estimate "section" capacity, Vo , based on our observations traveling over each section of the evacuation network and by reference to the Highway Capacity Manual. We then determined for each highway section, represented as a network link, whether its capacity would be limited by the "section-specific" service volume, V t or by the intersection-specific capacity. For each link, we selected the lower value of capacity. Note that the reduction of capacity, from Vs to Vr , is automatically implemented by the IDYNEV simulation model.
General Considerations Inclement weather conditions (rain, fog, snow) and poor or wet pavement conditions reduce capacity by virtue of:
() o Lower free-flow speeds reflecting greater caution on the part of motorists.
l 3-6 Rev. 5 1
r' l o Longer vehicle headways reflecting lower traction and/or more cautious driver behavior.
! i The decrease in service volume due to these factors can be l estimated based on either direct observation or by referencing l other studies in the literature.
Acolication to Pilorim EPZ As part of the development of the Pilgrim EPZ traffic network, an estimate of roadway capacity is required. The source material for the capacity estimates presented herein is contained in:
1985 Highway Capacity Manual (HCM), Special Report 209 Transportation Research Board.
National Research Council j Washington, D.C. 1985 J The highway system in the Pilgrim EPZ consists primarily of three categories of roads:
o Two-lane roads: local, State o Multi-lane Expressways o Freeway ramps Each of these classifications will be discussed. '
Two-Lane Roads Ref: HCM Chapter 8
.As a further aid to the estimate of roadway capacity, we have adopted the following three general types of rural roads:
- 1. " Low" design roads - 10 ft, lanea, 1 ft, shoulders (e.g.
Rocky Hill Road)
- 2. " Medium" design roads - 11 f t. J anes, 2 f t. shoulders (e.g.
Route 139)
- 3. "High" design roads - 12 ft. lanes, 4 ft, shoulders (e.g.
Route 58)
The relationship describing traffic operations on general terrain segments is as follows:
SF t = 2,800 x (v/c)r x fe x f. x fu A
V 3-7 Rev. 5
. where:
SFI =
total service flow rate in both directions for prevailing roadway and traffic conditions, for level of service I, in vph I (v/c)r = ratio of flow rate to ideal capacity for level of service I, obtained from HCM Table 8-1 fd = adjustment factor for directional distribution of I traffic, obtained from HCM Table 8-4 fw = adjustment factor for narrow lanes and restricted shoulder width, obtained from HCM Table 8-5 f HV = adj ustment factor for the presence of heavy vehicles in the traffic stream, which can be computed as outlined in the HCM '
We have applied these procedures of the 1985 HCM to obtain estimates of the "section" capacities of two-lane roads within the EPZ. An outline of these procedures is presented below. Note that capacity is defined as the service flow at the upper bound of Level of Service, LOS E.
Based on the field survey and on expected traffic operations ass,ociated with evacuation scenarios:
o The two-lane roads within the EPZ are classified as
" rolling terrain".
o Percent no passing zones is approximately 60.
o Directionality of traf fic moving over two-lane roads during i evacuation will approximate a " split" of 90 percent moving i outbound; 10 percent moving inbound, averaged over the duration of the evacuation. (For a mid-day mid-week scenario, this split way increase to 80/20 reflecting commuter traffic returning home. Highway capacity for outbound traffic, for this split, is essentially the same as for the postulated 90/10 directional split),
o Traffic mix is: 1% trucks, 1% buses, 4% recreational vehicles during the summer.
On this basis, the value of v/c of LOS E is 0.91 taken from Table 8-1 of the HCM. The directional split factor, fa is 0.75 from Table 8-4 of tne HCM. These factors apply to all three rural road types.
3-8 Rev. 5
n The road width factors, f., are obtained from Table 8-5 of the
() HCM:
o " Low" design roads - 0.78 (by interpolation)
, o " Medium" design roads - 0.88 o "High" design roads - 0.97 The vehicle mix factor is based both on the percentages of heavy vehicles and on the Passenger Car Equivalent (PCE) value of each vehicle type. Since PCE is related to vehicle performance, the PCE is lower on higner speed roads. For example, due to sluggish acceleration, a truck moving in local street traffic exhibits a higher PCE than the same truck does when it is on a freeway.
On this basis, the following values were obtained:
f HV = 0.87 for roads of high, medium and low designs; The following table represents the two-way and one-way (directional) capacity estimates for the three road types identified:
[]
G 2-way 1-way Equivalent Ve Ve Headway Road Type (V/C) f, f, f,nr (vph) (vph) (sec)
Low design 0.91 0.75 0.78 0.87 1297 1167 3.1 Medium design 0.91 0.75 0.88 0.87 1463 1317 2.7 High design 0.91 0.75 0.97 0.87 1613 1452 2.5 Notes: 1. The one-way capacities of roads for evacuating vehicles are calculated by multiplying the two-way values obtained from the HCM procedures, by the directional split, 0.9.
- 2. These directional (i.e. one-way) estimates will be multiplied by the factor, F= 0.85, when the traffic is moving under congested conditions.
Freeway Canacity There is one freeway in the Pilgrim EPZ; State Route 3. A general relationship is used to compute the one-way f reeway service flow at different Levels of Service;
/n\ SFi=c3 x (v/c)r x N x f x fu x f, U
3-9 Rev. 5
where:
SF 3 =
service flow rate for LOS I under prevailing roadway and traffic conditions for N lanes in one direction, in vph (v/c): =
maximum volume-to-capacity ratio for LOS I c 3' =
capacity under ideal conditions for freeway element of design speed j; 2,000 pcphpl for 60 mph and 70 mph freeway elements, 1,900 pcphp1 for 50 mph freeway elements; the value of c is synonymous with the maximum service' flow rate 3 for LOS E N =
number of lanes in one direction of the freeway f, =
factor to adjust for the effects of restricted lane widths and/or lateral clearances f, = factor to adjust for the effect of heavy vehicles (trucks, buses and recreational vehicles) in the traffic stream f, =
factor to adjust for the effect of driver population Based on the field survey, Route 3 exhibits:
o Essentially level terrain o Two lanes o A traffic mix approximating: 1% trucks, 1% buses, 4%
recreational vehicles during the summer HCM.
.The (v/c) ratio at capacity flow is 1.0 from Table 3-1 of the The lane width factor, a facility with 12 f., , taken from HCM Table 3-2 = 1, for ft. ' anes,
. 6 ft. shoulder, and a 4 lane facility.
The vehicle mix factor, fu, is computed in a manner similar to that for the rural road segments. The value obtained is fy =
0.96.
The final factor, f,, is designed te adjust the service flow to account for differing driver characteristics. The suggested values (HCM, Table 3-10] range from 0.75 to 1.0 for weekday or co= muter-traffic. It is expected most experienced person in the group will drive.
that during an evacuation, the Further, it is assumed that virtually all drivers are familiar with this major 3-10 Rev. 5
road in the Pilgrim EPZ. Therefore, a factor = 0.90 was
). selected.
f, On the basis of these factors, a freeway capacity V = 1728 vphl was selected.* This estimate translates into a mean vehicle headway of 2.1 seconds.
Freeway Ramos Capacity of freeway ramps was assumed to be 1333 vphl. This' is a conservative estimate [see HCM, Table 5-5], and corresponds to a queue discharge headway of 2.7 seconds per vehicle. Note that the simulation model will limit this service volume on the ramp to lower values when traffic volumes on Route 3 are heavy.
Foo The issue of ocean fog must be addressed. Discussions with public of ficials in communiti n along the coast indicate that ocean fog is an unusual occurrence during the summer months. All agree that such fog, when it does appear, occurs primarily in the early morning and generally dist,ipates by 9 A.M., and no later than 10 A.M., in any event.
Fog can also occur in the evening after the 4
sun has set.
(G It is generally acknowledged that beach area population is J significantly below capacity in early morning and late evening.
Thu's, Scenarios 1 and 2 are certainly more severe than an early morning scenario which includes the presence of fog.
Fog also occurs inland and qualifies as inclement weather, regardless of its location. The 1985 Highway Capacity Manual indicates "that 10 to 20 percent reductions (in capacity] are typical and higher percentages are quite possible". Our capacity reductions of 20 percent for rain and 25 percent for snow are responsive to these guidelines.
Link Cacaciti_qg Appendix N presents the link capacities, Ve, for the evacuation network shown in Figure 1-2. All links are identified by name and location (community).
l 19
- Vs- is synonymous with SFE, as used in the HCM.
V ~
3-11 Rev. 5 END 1
- 4. ESTIMATION OF TRIP GENERATION TIME Federal Government Guidelines (see NUREG 0654, Appendix 4) l specify that the planner estimate the distributions of elapsed times associated with activities undertaken by the public in preparation for evacuation.
- We define the s_um of these distributions of elapsed times, to be defined later, as the Trip Generation Time Distribution.
Backaround I In general, an accident at a nuclear power station attains one or more " classes" of Emergency Action Levels (see Appendix 1 of NUREG 0654 for details):
- 1. Unusual Event
- 2. Alert
- 3. Site Area Emergency
- 4. General Emergency ,
At each level, the Federal Guidelines specify a set of Actions to be undertaken by the Licensee, and by State and Local offsite authorities. If we limit this discussion to the evacuation decision action, then the first off-site public notification and response can occur at the time of the site Area Emergency.
~~
As a Plannina Basis, we will adopt a conservative posture, in accord with Federal Regulations, that a rapidly escalating accident will be considered in calculating the Trip Generation Time. We will assume:
o The accident escalates almost immediately to a Site Area Emergency following activation of the local Emergency Operation Centers (EOC) o That further escalation to a General Emergency occurs 15 minutes later.
o That the directive to evacuate is transmitted to the public 10 minutes after the General Emergency is declared.
We emphasize that the adoption of this planning basis is not a representation that these events can occur at the Pilgrim Station within the indicated time frame. Rather, these assumptions are only necessary in order to:
o Establish a temporal framework for estimating the Trip Generation distribution in the format recommended in Appendix 4 of NUREG ') 6 5 4 .
O 4-1 Rev. 5 I
l I
I I l
i l
t r3 l
V> o Identify temporal points of reference for the purpose of l
(
i uniquely defining " Clear Time" and Evacuation Time l l Estimates (ETE).
l
)
It is more likely that a longer time will elapse between the l' various classes of an emergency at Pilgrim. For example, suppose two hours elapse from the declaration of a General Emergency to the Directive to Evacuate. In this case, it is reasonable to expect some degree of spontaneous evacuation during this two-hour period.
As a result, the population within the EPZ will be lower when the <
Directive to Evacuate is announced, than at the time of the General Emergency. Thus, the time needed to evacuate the EPZ, after the Directive to Evacuate may be significantly less than the estimates presented in this report.
I On the other hand, there is a low probability that an 1 i
"immediate" General Emergency can arise, with the Directive to I Evacuate given almost simultaneously. In this case, the' evacuation time estimates (ETE) will be somewhat longer than the figures presented herein.
The planning basis adopted here approximates the " worst case" conditions, and is within 25 minutes of the most extreme condition.
n.
(
v
) The notification process consists of two events: .
o Transmittino information (e.g. using sirens, tone alerts, EBS broadcasts, loudspeakers).
o Receivino and correctly interoretino the information that is transmitted.
1 The resident population within the EPZ exceeds 80,000 persons i who are deployed over an area of approximately 150 square miles, and engaged in a wide variety of activities. During the summer, i more than 30,000 additional persons could be within the EPZ. It '
must be anticipated that some time will elapse between the transmission and receipt of the information.
The amount of elapsed time will vary from one individual to the next depending where that person is, what that person is doing, and related factors. Furthermore, persons who will be directly involved with the evacuation process may be outside the EPZ at the time that the emergency is declared. These people may be I commuters, shoppers and other travelers who reside within the EPZ and who will return to join the other members in the household upon receiving notification of an emergency.
n As indicated in Appendix 4 of NUREG 0654, the estimated
() elapsed times for the receipt of notification can be expressed as a distribution reflecting the different notification times for different people within, and outside, the EPZ. By using time 4-2 Rev. 5
p distributions, it is also possible to distinguish between dif ferent Q population groups and different day-of-week and scenarios, so that more accurate assessments may be obtained.
time-of-day For example, persons located inland within the EPZ will be notified by siren and radio. Those well outside the EPZ will be notified by telephone, radio, TV and word-of-mouth, with potentially longer time lags.
Furthermore, the spatial distribution of the EPZ population will differ with time of day -- families will be united in the evenings and at night, but dispersed during the day. In this respect, weekends will differ from weekdays.
Fundamental Considerations I The environment leading up to the time that people begin their evacuation trips, consists of a sequence of events and activities. Each event (other than the first) occurs at, an instant i in time and is the outcome of an activity. j Activities are undertaken over a period of time. Activities may be in " series" (i.e. to undertake an activity implies the completion of all preceding events) or may be in parallel (two or more activities may take place over the same period of time).
A h Activities conducted in series are functionally ~deoendent the' completion of 'rior activities; activities conducted in on -
parallel are functior 11y indecendent of one-another. The relevant events associated with the public's preparation for evacuation are:
Event Number Event Description 1 No-accident condition 2 Awareness of accident situation 3 Depart place of work 4 Arrive home 5 Leave to evacuate the area Associated with each sequence of events are one or more activities, as outlined below:
Event Secuence Activity 1 --> 2 Public receives notification information 2 --> 3 Prepare to leave work 2,3 --> 4 Travel home 2,4 --> 5 Prepare to leave for evacuation trip These relationships may be depicted graphically as shown in Figure 4-1.
O v
4-3 Rev. 5 i
s den s acat o er (A) Accident occurs during midweek, at midday; summer season R s den s acat o er (B) Accident occurs during weekend. at midday; summer season 1 2 3 4 5 0 .
(C) Accident occurs '
during midweek at midday; non-summer season (D) Accident occurs in the evening; non-summer season (E) Employees within the EPZ who live ;
Event outside the area
_.-- Activity T/MG '
Figure 4-1. Events and Activities Preceding the Evacuation (See Text for definitions)
O 4-4 Rev. 5
eitherNote that event on event 5, " Leave 2 gr event 4. to evacuate the area" is conditional That is, activities 2 --> 5 can be undertaken in parallel with activities 2 --> 3, 3 --> 4 and 4 -->
5, as shown in Figure 4-1 (a) and (c). Specifically, it is possible that one adult member of a household can prepare to leave home (i.e. secure the home, pack clothing, etc.), while others are traveling home from work. In this instance, the household members would be able to evacuate sooner than if such preparation had to be deferred until all household members had returned home. However, we will adopt the conservative posture that all activities will occur in sequence.
It is seen from Figure 4-1, that the Trip Generation time (i.e. the total elapsed time from Event 1 to Event 5) depends on the scenario and will vary from one household to the next.
Furthermore, Event 5 depends, in a complicated way, on the time distributions of all activities leading to that event.
Specifically, in order to estimate the time distribution of Event 5, we must somehow obtain estimates of the time distributions of all preceding events.
Estimated Time Distributions of Activities Precedino Event 5 The time distribution of an event is obtained by " summing" the time distributions of all prior, contributing activities. (This
" summing" process is quite dif ferent than an algebraic sum since we are. operating on distributions -- not numbers). '
Time Distribution of the Notification Process:
Activity 1 --> 2)
We know of no survey which has accumulated empirical information describing the rate at which notification information is received. Nevertheless, there is sufficient data to obtain a reasonable estimate of a notification time frame, based largely on the information obtained from the telephone survey. (See Appendices F and G)
The following information is relevant:
Average Household (HH) Size: 3.21 Avg. Number of Commuters per HH: 754/599 = 1.26 Percentage of Residents-who will be within the EPZ if accident occurs at mid-week, mid-day:
0.41 (1.26) + (3.21-1.26) x 100 = 76.8 3.21 since 41 percent of all commuters work within the EPZ, according to s the survey results.
1 4-5 Rev. 5
The population within the EPZ includes 76.8 percent of all O residents, as computed above, and 100 percent of all tourists and employees, by definition.
It is reasonable to expect that 90 percent of those within the EPZ will be aware of the accident within 15 minutes with the remainder notified within the following 15 minutes. The commuters outside the EPZ will be notified somewhat later, say uniformly between 10 and 40 minutes, while the entire beach area population will be notified within 15 minutes. The primary means of notifying boaters off shore is through EBS and Coast Guard broadcasts.
However, mariners who do not have radios, or whose radios are not tuned to EBS or emergency frequencies will take longer to notify.
It is assumed that 50 percent of boaters are notified by 40 minutes, with the balance notified by 1 hour1.157407e-5 days <br />2.777778e-4 hours <br />1.653439e-6 weeks <br />3.805e-7 months <br /> after the Site Area j Emergency has been declared. The resulting distributions for this notification activity are given below:
Distribution No. 1, Notification Time: Activity 1 --> 2 Persons off the Beach: Distribution 1A Elapsed Cum. Pct.
Time (min.) Notified O
- 5 10 15 46 15 79 20 85 25 90 30 95
.35 98 40 100 Persons on the Beach: Distribution 1B Elapsed Cum. Pct.
Time (min.) Notified 5 20 10 60 15 100 Persons on Boats: Distribution 1C Elapsed Cum. Pct.
Time (min.) Notified 5 5 10 10 O 15 20 15 20 4-6 Rev. 5
Elapsed Cum. Pct.
l Time (min.) Notified 25 25 j
, 30 30 i 35 40 40 50 45 60 50 75 55 90 60 100 It is' reasonable to expect that the vast majority of business enterprises within _ the EPZ will elect to shut down following notification. Most employees would take action to leave work quickly. Commuters who work outside the EPZ could, in all probability, also leave quickly since facilities outside the EPZ would remain open and other personnel would remain. Personnel responsible for equipment would require additional time to secure the facility. The distribution of Activity 2 --> 3 reflects data obtained by the telephone survey. This distribution is plotted in Figure 2-1 and listed below as Distribution 2.
Distribution No. 2. Time to Precare to Leave Work:
Activity 2 --> 3
( '
Elapsed Cum. Pct. -
Leavinc Work Time (min.)
5 56 10 72 15 81 20- 84
'25 85 30 92 35 93 40 94 45 95 50 96 55 96 !
60 98 !
65 98 70 98 l 75 98 l 80 98 ;
'85 99 !
90 99 95 99 100 99 105 99 110 100 l
4-7 Rev. 5 4
)
The survey data was normalized to distribute the " Don't O NOTE:
know" response l
Distribution No. 3, Time to Travel Home- Activity 3 --> 4 This data is provided directly by the telephone survey. This distribution is plotted in Figure 2-1 and listed below:
1 Elapsed Cum. Pct. l Time (min.) Returninc Home 5 12 )
10 26 15 37 q
20 47 25 52 30 60 '
35 64 40 68 -
45 77 50 80 55 81 60 89 65 91 70 92 l T 75 94 ,
. 80 96 85 97 90 98 95 98 100 98 105 99 110 99 115 100 NOTE: The survey data was normalized to distribute the " Don't know" response j i
Distribution No. 4, Time to Prepare to Leave Home:
Activity 2,4 --> 5 This data is provided directly by the telephone survey. This distribution is plotted in Figure 2-1 and listed below:
Distribution 4A: Residents & Tourists off tPe Beach i
Elaosed Time (min) Cum. Pet. Ready to Evacuate 5 9 10 19 O 15 20
'30 43 4-8 Rev. 5 l
j
Elaosed Time (min) Cum. Pet. Ready to Evacuate 25 53 30 60 35 63
., 40 66 45 68 50 73 55 76 60 80 65 83 70 85 75 88 80 89 85 89 90 90 95 90 100 90 105 90 110 91 115 92 120 92 125 93 130 94 135 96 O '
140 145 150 96 96 96 1
155 96 160 96 165 96 170 96 175 96 180 97 185 97 190 98 195 99 200 99 205 99 210 100 NOTE: The original data was obtained in 15-minute increments, The above figures were calculated by interpolation and 1
l normalized as before.
Distribution 4B: Tourists on the Beach Distribution 4B describes the estimated preparation time to leave the be,ch area. While we have no empirical data to support this distribution, we do know the physical domain of the beach area and the' activities involved.
4-9 Rev. 5
People on the beach or out walking would merely gaf r their belongings and walk to their respective cars. Others who are lodged in overnight accommodations and in tourist facilities would return to pack their belongings and leave. Business people and permanent residents must secure their property and then pack, before leaving.
On a weekend, almost half of all visitors are day-trippers.
These people should be able to access their respective cars within 30 minutes of the receipt of the notification information I and be ready to depart.
About 80 percent of the remaining visitors (i.e. 40 percent of )
the total) skuld be able to access their respective cars within 1.5 hours5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br />. 2ne remaining people are those who must take longer, say, up to two hours.
The resulting distribution follows:
ElaDsed Time (min) Cum. Pet. Ready to Evacqayl.ee I 5 12 10 23 15 35 20 46 O 25 30 57 68 35 70 40 72 45 74 50 76 55 79 60 81 65 84 70 86 75 89 80 91 85 94 90 97 95 97 100 98 105 98 110 99 115 99 120 100 Distribution 4C: Boaters Return to Launch Sites Distribution 4C describing the estimated time required for O boaters to motor, or sail, back to the marina, yacht club, or launching notification.
ramp from where their trip originated The data for this distribution was obtained from after 4-10 Rev. 5 i
' interviews with boaters returning to public launch ramps in Plymouth and Duxbury.
Elaosed Time (min) Cum. Pct. Arrivina at Doci 5 0 10 7 15 17 20 51 25 54 30 70 35 73 40 80 {
45 93 '
50 93 55 93 60 100 Distribution 4D: Boaters Precare to Evacuate Distribution 4D describes the time required to load a boat trailer once the boat is at the launch ramp. The data for this distribution was obtained from interviews with boaters.
("] Elaosed Time (min) Cum. Pct. Boats Loaded V
5 39 10 81 15 97 20 97 25 97 30 97 35 97 40 97 45 97 50 100 Calculation of Trio Generation Time Distribution l
Associated with each event is a time distribution reflecting I the range of time for the population to complete the preceding activity, and the time distribution of the preceding event.
When an event, k+1, deoends upon a prior event, k, then the time distribution of this event, k+1, can be calculated if:
o The time distribution of event, k, is known, and l
, o The time distribution of the activity k->k+1, is known or
! /N can be estimated.
N-l l 4-11 Rev. 5 l
l
/"' We now present the analytical treatment to compute distribution of event, k+1, given the distribution of the prior the event and of the connecting activity.
Alcorithm No. 1 (Decendent Events)
Computationally, all distributions are represented histograms composed of elements (i.e. each element as represents a I percentage of the population). The following definitions apply:
Let T (k) = Time at which the ith element of the histogram has i
completed event, k; I=1,2...,I t3 = Time required for jth element of the histogram to perform the activity, k->k+1; j=1,2,...,J P (k) = Percent of population represented by the ith element i
of the histogram for event, k. That is, P i(k) percent of the population has completed the event, k, at time, T i (k), over the interval, AT=T (k) -T .i (k) .
i i P3 = Percent of population which requires t minutes to 3 complete activity, k ->k+1.
O T, ( k+ 1 ) = Time at which mth element of the histogram has completed event, k+ 1 ; m=1, 2 , . . . , I+ j - 1, . . .~ I+J-J P,( k+ 1 ) = Percent of population represented by the mth element of the histogram for event, k+1. That is, P, ( k+ 1) percent of the population has completed the event, k+1, at time, T, ( k+ 1 ) , over the time interval, AT=T (k+1) - T,.i(k+1)
Then, l
P, ( k+ 1 ) =
[ P (k)p3 /100 1
i,j ->
l I+j-1=m l T,(k+1) = T (k) +t 3 where I+j-1=m i
I+J-1 I
Note: [ P, ( k + 1 ) =1 m=1 l
O 4-12 Rev. 5
I-r-
l r Examole: Dependent Events--Application of Algorithm No. 1 I
Time Distribution of' event, k Time Distribution of activity, k->k+1 l . I P (k) t T (k)'
i j P3 t3 l
1 30 10 1 50 20 2 50 20 2 30 30 3 10 30 3 20 40 4 10 40 Let m = 1. Then I = j = 1 P -(k+1)_ = - ( 3 0 ) - ( 5 0 ) /10 0 = 15 ; T (k+1) = 10+20=30 1
t Let m = 2. Then I=1, j=2 ; I=2, j=1 P2 (k+1) = [(30)(30) + ( 50) ( 50 ) ] /100=34 T2 (k+1) = 10 + 3 0 = 4 0 Let m = 3. Then I = 1,-j = 3 ; I = 2, j = 2; I.= 3, j=1
., P3 (k+1) =
( (30) (20) + (50) (30) + (10)(50)]/100 = 26 ~
T (k+1) = 10 + 40 = 50 3
Let m = 4. Then I = 2, j =3 ; I = 3, j = 2 ; I=4, j=1 P4 (k+1) = 18 , T. ( k+ 1 ) = 60
{
Let-m = 5. Then I = 3, j =3 ; I =4, j = 2 l Ps (k+1) = 5, . Ts (k+1) = 70 :
(
l
.Let-m =-6. Then I = 4, j =3 : P (k+1) = 2, T; ( k+ 1 ) = 80 i
.Comouted Time DisXribution of Event k+1 l
l l
m P, ( k+ 1 ) T. ( k+ 1 )
i 1 15 30 2 34 40-26
-. -3 50 4 18 60 4-13 Rev. 5 I
b
n m P, ( k+ 1 ) T. ( k+1 )
10f-1 5 5 70 6 2 80
' ~
Definitionally, the distribution for Event No 2 is identical to Distribution lA (or 1B), since Event No. 1 (the normal
' condition) is a continuum. To obtain the needed distributions we apply algorithm No. 1 repeatedly, as indicated below:
)
in order to which is ADolv Alcorithm No. 1 to Obtain Dist. for named Distribution 1
)
Distributions 1A and 2 Event No. 3 A Distributions A and 3 Event No. 4 B f
t Distributions B and 4A- Event No. 5 C Distributions 1A and 4A Event No. 5 p Distributions 1B and 4B Event No. 5 E l
Distributions 1C and 4C and 4D Event No. 5 E,
^
Table 4-1 lists the calculated distributions, which are
-t explained below: J Distribution Exnlanation A Time distribution of commuters leaving work. Also applies to employees who work within the EPZ who live outside the EPZ.
B Time distribution of commuters arriving home.
C Time distribution of residents in households with commuters, leaving home to begin the evacuation I
trip.
D Time distribution of residents and tourists with no commuters in the household, leaving home to begin the evacuation trip.
E Time distribution of beach area tourists leaving the area to begin the evacuation trip.
E.- Time distribution of boaters leaving the area to begin the evacuation trip. !
bv 4-14 Rev. 5
Table 4-1. Computed Trip Generation Cumulative Distributions (Percent) from Start of Notification Elansed Time (Hr: Min) A B C D E E2 I t 0:05 0 0 0 0 0 0 0:10 8 0 0 1 2 0 0:15 28 1- 0 6 11 0 0:20 53 5 0 13 25 0 0:25 65 11 1 23 36 1 3
0:30 73 19 2 33 44 2 0:35 79 27 4 43 55 4 0:40 85 34 6 51 64 7 0:45 90 41 10 57 70 11 0:50 92 48 14 61 72 14 0:55 93 54 19 65 74 19 1:00 95 60 23 69 76 25 1:05 96 65 28 73 78 32 1:10 97 70 32 77 81 40 1:15 97 75 37 80 83 49 1:20 98 79 42 83 86 59 1:25 98 83 46 85 88 69 1:30 98 85 51 87 91 76 1:35 98 88 55 88 93 82 0 1:40 1:45 1:50 99 99 99 90 92 93 60 63 67 89 90 90 96 97 98 87 91 94 1:55 99 94 70 90 98 96 2:00 99 95 73 91 99 97
'2:05 100 96 76 91 99 99 2:10 97 78 92 100 99 2:15 97 80 92 99 2:20 98 82 93 99 2:25 98 83 95 99 2:30 99 85 95 100 2:35 99 86 96 2:40 100 87 96 2:45 89 96 2:50' 90 96 2:55 91 96
~3:00 91 96 3:05 92 96 3:10 93 97 3:15 93 97 3:20 94 98 3:25 94 98 3:30 95 99
-3:35 95 99 3:40 96 100 3:45 96
- s. 3:50 96 3:55 97 4-15 Rev. 5
Table 4-1. Computed Trip. Generation Cumulative Distributions (Percent)' from Start of Notification (conc. )
Elansed Time (Hr: Min) A B .Q. 2 E Es 4:00 97 4:05 98 4:10 99 4:15- 100 l
, i 1
l 1
l l
l l
4-16 Rev. 5 1
I
, k' The Trip Generation time distributions for non-beachgoing population groups within the EPZ has its origin point at the time I
notification of the public begins at the Declaration of a General Emergency. Ten minutes later, at the time of the Evacuation Directive, about 8 percent of employees within the area are ready
,. to begin the evacuation trip; less than 1 percent of residents are ready to evacuate.
The scenario is different for people at the beach. Current planning calls for beach areas to be closed beginning at an Alert, or 25 minutes prior to the Evacuation Directive. Consequently, when the Directive to Evacuate is issued, about 36 percent of the people at the beach are ready to comply, or have already begun leaving the beaches. Figure 4-2 presents these distributions (A, D and E) on the same time scale, showing their relative temporal displacement.
Trio Generation Distributions for Week-end Scenarios The IDYNEV model is designed to accept varying rates of trip generation for each origin centroid, expressed in the form of histograms. These centroids are partitioned into several sets --
those for beach area traffic, for residents and employees. hese histograms, which represent Distributions A, D and E, properly displaced with respect to one another, are tabulated in Tables 4-2 and 4-2a. Note that the point of reference (i.e. "zero time") of these histograms is the time at which the Directive to Evacuate is giv'en.
These tabulations present the trips generated _a_nd the rates of trip-making within each indicated time period, both expressed as a percentage of the total number of trips to be generated at each centroid. The rate of trip making is found by:
Rate = Trios cenerated in Time Period Ioercent)
Duration of Time Period (hours)
Trio Generation Distribution for Per anent Residents, for Weekday Scenarios The mid-day scenario produces a Trip Generation distribution which is a linear combination of Distributions C and D.
Distribution C applies to those households with at least one commuter, while Distribution D applies to those households with no commuters. This linear combination results in Distribution F, reflecting the fact that about 22 percent of the households within the EPZ have no commuters, according to the telephone survey (see Appendix G). Distribution F is listed in Tables 4-3 and in Table 4-4 in a format suitable for input to IDYNEV.
O 4-17 Rev. 5
R O
l 4
1 i
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l l
Figure 4-2. Comparison of Trip Generation Distributions l
8 Z h c0 ,
,/
.a-l 80 ,;,2 -
,/
3
~
(Q '
,/ ,9 l d / i j60 -
/-
6
- l E
g - . . . .
/ i 20 --
'A
/
Employees Residenu t weekend) Transienu
/
~.
m w' &
x _ . . .
O ac 2 (30) 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 Elapsed Tirne tMans i from the Evac. Durctive
,O 4-18 Rev. 5 l
i
Table 4-2. Trip Generation Time Histograms for the Week-end Scenarios Time Period Percent of Total Trips and Rates which are Relative to Generated During the Indicated Time Periods Time of Directive Beach Areas Residents To Evacuate Employees (from Dist. E) (from Dist. D) (from Dist. A)
(Hrs.: Min.) Trips Rate Trips Rate Trips Rate
-0:25 to 0:00 36 86 0 0 0 0 0:00 to 0:15 28 112 6 24 28 0:15 to 0:30 112 10 40 27 108 45 0:30 to 0:45 180 7 28 24 96 17 68 0:45 to 1:00 7 28 12 48 1:00 to 1:30 5 20 10 20 18 36 '3 6 1:30 to 2:00 2 4 4 8 1 2 2:00 to 2:30 0 0 5 10 1 2 2:30 to 3:00 0 0 1 2 0 0 3:00 to 3:30 0 0 3 6 0 0 3:30 onward 0 0 0 0 0 0
~
Units: Trips, percent of total trips which are generated at the origin centroids during indicated Time Period Rate, percent of total trips per hour during indicated Time Period O
4-19 Rev. 5
(
}
(~' Table 4-2a. Trip Generation Time Histograms for the Boating Population (Distribution E.)
J Percent of Total Trips and Rates Time Period Relative to which are Generated During the {
Time of Directive to Indicated Time Periods 1
)
Evacuate (Hrs: Min) Trios- Egag
-0:25 to 0:00 0 0 0:00 to 0:15 0 0 0:15.to 0:30 2 8 0:30 to 0:45 9 36 0:45 to 1:00 14 56 1:00 to 1:30 51 102 1:30 to 2:00 21 42 2:00 to 2:30 3 6
2:30 to 3:00 0 0 I
\s-Units: Trips, percent of total trips which are generated at ~
~
the origin centroids during indicated' Time Period Rate, percent of total trips per hour during indicated Time Period i
j I
i l
l i i 1 <
l I l
I 4-20 Rev. 5 l
/ Table 4-3. Computed Trip Generation Time Distribution for the Mid-week, Mid-day Scenario (Distribution F)
Elapsed Time Cum. Pct. of Elapsed Time (Hrs: Min) Cum. Pct of l Trios Generated (Hrs: Min) Trios Generated 0:05 0 2:05 79 0:10 0 2:10 81 0:15 1 2:15 83 0:20 3 2:20 84 0:25 6 2:25 86 0:30 9 2:30 87 0:35 13 2:35 88 0:40 16 2.:40 89 0:45 20 2:45 91 0:50 24 2:50 91 0:55 29 2:55 92 l 1:00 33 3:00 92 1:05 38 3:05 93 1:10 42 3:10 94 1:15 46 3:15 94 1:20 51 3:20 95 I i 1:25 l
55 3:25 95 .
1:30 59 3:30 96 1:35 62 3:35 96 1:40 66 3:40 96 1:45 69 3:45 97 1:50 72 3:50 97 >
l 1:55 74 3:55 98 2:00 77 4:00 98 i
4:05 99 -
l 4:10 100 l
{
O 4-21 Rev. 5 l i
Table 4-4. Trip Generation Time Histograms for the O= Week-day Scenarios (Dist. F)
Percent of Total Trips and Rates Time Period Relative to which are Generated During the Time of Directive to Indicated Time Periods Evacuate (Hrs.: Min) Trios E.aut
-0:25.to 0:00 0 0 0:00 to 0:15 1 4 0:15 to 0:30 8 32 0:30 to 0:45 11 44 0:45 to 1:00 13 52 1:00 to 1:30 26 52 1:30 to 2:00 18 36 2:00 to 2:30 10 20 2:30 to 3:00 5 10 3:00 to 3:30 4 8 l; 3:30 to 4:00 2 4 4:00 to 4:10 2 12 4:10 onward 0 0 Units:
Trips, percent of total trips at centroid Rate, percent of total trips, per hour 4
O 4-22 Rev. 5
Snow Clearance Time Distribution Inclement weather scenarios involving snowfall must address the time lags associated with snow clearance. Discussions with local officials indicate that snow plowing equipment is mobilized and deployed during the snowfall to maintain passable roads. The general consensus is that their efforts are generally successful for all but the most extreme blizzards when the rate of snow i
accumulation exceeds that of snow clearance over a period of many hours.
Consequently, it is reasonable to assume that the highway system will remain passable -- albeit at a lower capacity -- under the vast majority of snow conditions. Nevertheless, for the l vehicles to gain access to the highway system, it is necessary for driveways and employee parking lots to be cleared to the extent needed to make them passable.
time, These clearance activities take and this time lag must be incorporated into the trip generation time distributions. Thus, we must postulate' a separate distribution for the driveway snow clearance activity and then introduce this distribution into the procedure used to calculate the trip generation time distribution.
The time needed to clear a driveway depends on the depth of e
snow, the available equipment and the number of able-bodied personnel to perfonn the task. Since this area is accustomed to heavy recurring snowfalls (see Table 1-1), it is r'easonable to exp'ect that virtually all households have made provision for snow clearance by either owning some form of equipment or by contracting for such service to be performed by others. The snow clearance distribution shown in Table 4-5 was obtained from the telephone survey.
1 It is recognized that the snow clearing activity can take place in parallel with other activities, e.g. preparing for evacuation. Nevertheless, we will adopt the conservative point of view that this activity follows the preparation activity, rather than proceeding in parallel with it. This posture will lengthen the temporal extent of the trip generation process.
The event " Driveways cleared of snow" will be identified as Event No. 5 and the event " Leave to Evacuate" is Event No. 6 for scenarios involving snow conditions.
The following additional operations are needed to compute the trip generation distributions for the inclement weather, snow scenarios:
4-23 Rev. 5
7 Table 4-5: Distribution of Snow Clearance Time:
O Distribution 5 Elapsed Time Cum. Percent of s-(min.) Driveways Cleared 5 8 10 17 15 28 20 37 i l 25 45 30 50 35 53 40 56 45 59 50 63 55' 66 60 70 ,
65 73 70 76 75 79 80 81 '
85 83 90 84 L 95 85 l 100 86 l
105 86 1
110 87 115 88 )
l 120 88 125 89 130 90 135 91 140 91 145 91 l 150 92 155 92 160 92 165 92 170 92 175 93 l 180 94 l 185 95 190 195 97 !
100 j Note: The survey data was normalized to distribute the " Don't Know" response i 4-24 Rev. 5 I
I l
in order to which is Acolv Alcorithm No. 1 to Obtain Dist. for named Distribution Distributions A and 5 Event No. 6 G Distributions F and 5 Event No. 6 H )
Distributions D and 5 Event No. 6 I l The results of these calculations are shown in Table 4-6 in a 1
format consistent with the others. Note:
o Distribution G applies to employees o Distribution H applies to residents during mid-day o Distribution I applies to residents during the evening / weekend and for transients.
Appendix M presents the loading rates at each origin centroid shown in Figure 1-2. Note that these are the estimated rates at which vehicles leave their respective points of origin '(i.e. home, beach area, motel, place of business) to begin the evacuation l trip.
The rates at which these vehicles enter the evacuation l
network, as shown on Figure 1-2, via their respective Access Links, {
depend on traffic conditions, and may be lower than the rates shown in Appendix M. The IDYNEV simulation submodel computes these
" access" loading rates internally, in order to realistically represent the evacuation environment.
(7- ) .
l l
I l
l l
O 4-25 Rev. 5 l
l O Table 4-6. Trip Generation Time Histograms for the Inclement Weather, Snow, Scenarios (Distributions G, H, I)
Time Period' Relative Percent of Trips and Rates which are to Time of Generated During the Indicated Directive Time Periods to Evacuate .
(Hrs.: Min.) Dist. G Dist. H Dist. I Trips Rate Trips Rate Trips Rate 0:00 to 0:15 1 4 0 0 0 0 0:15 to 0:30 8 32 0 0 4 16 0:30 to 0:45 11 44 3 12 11 e4 0:45 to 1:00 -13 52 5 20 13 52 1:00 to 1:30' 26 52 16
- 32 23 46 1:30 to 2:00 18 36 19 38 17 34 2:00 to 2:30 10 20 17 34 10 20 2:30 to 3:00 5 10 13 26 6 12 3:00 to 3:30 4 8 8 16 5 10 3:30 to 4:00 4 8 7 14 6 12 4:00 to 4:10 0 0 2 12 1 6 O 4:10 to
.4:30-to
'5:00 to 4:30 5:00 0
0 0
0 3 4 12 6
2 1
6 2
~
5:30 0 0 3 6 1 2 5:30 onward 0 0 0 0 0 0 Units: Trips, percent of total trips at centroid Rate, percent of total trips per hour s
O 4-26 Rev. 5 End
5.
ESTIMATED TRAFFIC DEMAND FOR EVACUATION SCENARIOS An evacuation case may be defined in terms of the region to be evacuated and the scenario under consideration. The definition of region and scenario is as follows:
Region -
A grouping of emergency response planning areas (Subareas) within the EPZ. Depending on such f actors as wind direction, and accident severity, a protective action decision may identify the need to evacuate one or more such subareas. Each region takes the approximate form of a circular area, or of a " keyhole" configuration consisting of a quadrant appended to a central circular area.
Scenario - A combination of time of day, season and weather conditions. Scenarios define the sizes of, and trip generation distributions for, the various population groups. In addition, the specified weather capacity.
highway conditions influence the estimates used for A total of 12 Subareas were defined which encompass all of the potential groupings to be considered.
described in Table 5-1 and shown in Figure 5-1. Subarea boundaries are are presented in Table 5-2. Regional groupings J
A total of 10 scenarios were evaluated for all regions, yielding scenarios.
220 case studies. Table 5-3 presents a description of all Each accident scenario implies a specific population to be evacuated. Table 5-4 summarizes the percentage of each population group assumed to evacuate with each scenario. The following figure numbers present population " roses for each scenario.
Ficure Numbers Permanent Scenario Resident Transients Emolovees P_QJ2 . V_e_ h .
_ EpgJ2 Veh. Poo. Veh.
1,2 2-4, 2-5 2-6, 2-7 5-2, 5-3 3,4 2-4, 2-5 5-4, 5-5 2-8, 2-9 5,6,7 2-4, 2-5 5-6, 5-7 2-8, 2-9 B,9,10 2-4, 2-5 5-10, 5-11
' 5-8, 5-9 O
5-1 Rev. 5
Description of Pilgrim Emergency O Table 5-1.
Response Planning Areas
., Subarea'1 Clifford Road north to coast and south to Howland Pond's southern shore; from Howland Pond southeast to Strand Avenue / Route 3 intersection; and 3Ag1 on Strand Avenue to coast.
Subarea 2 South along Russell Mills Road to Jordan Road, south to Long Pond Road and south to Long. Pond Road and Ship Pond Road intersection.
Eagl on Ship Pond Road to the coast; north along the coast to Strand Avenue. Strand Avenue wL11 to Strand Avenue / Route 3A intersection and northwest to the southern shore of Howland Pond.
Subarea 3 O South Park Avenue Eg.gl to North Park Avenue, wt11 to Route 44 wggi to Route.3.
South on Route 3 to eastern shores of Deep Water Pond and'Billington Sea, south along Watercourse Road to eastern shores of Little South Pond, Great South Pond, Boot Pond and Gunners Exchange Pond. Southeastern shore of Gunners Exchange Pond southeast to' intersection of Long Pond and Alden Roads. North on Long Pond Road to Jordan Road, northeast on Jordan Road to Russell Mills Road. East on Russell Mills Road to Clifford Road. North on Clifford Road to the coast.
Clifford Road north to the coast, north to northern point of Plymouth Beach, south on western shore of Plymouth Beach, north along coast to South Park Avenue.
Subarea 4 Powder Point Bridge south on Duxbury Beach to Gurnet Point; west along Saquish Neck to Saguish Head; and Clarks Island.
1 5-2 Rev. 5
i l
Table 5-1. Description of Pilgrim Emergency Response Planning Areas (cont.) ,
l Subarea 5 From intersection of Long Pond and Alden Roads southwest to Upper College Pond Road. Southwest along Upper College Pond Road to Plymouth / Carver Town Line. Southwest on Plymouth / Carver Town Line, east on Plymouth /Wareham Town Line and east along Plymouth / Bourne Town Line. From Plymouth / Bourne Town Line, north along coast to l Ship Pond Road, west on Ship Pond Road to Long Pond Road; north on Long Pond Road to intersection at Alden Road.
Subarea 6 ,
From intersection of Routes 3 and 44, west on Route 44 to Plymouth / Carver Town Line. South along Plymouth / Carver Town Line to Upper College Pond Road. Northeast along Upper College Pond j Road to Alden Road, epst along Alden Road to intersection at Long '
Pond Road. West to southeastern shore of Gunners Exchange Pond.
%1 North along eastern shores of Gunners Exchange Pond, Boot Pond, (d Great South Pond, and Little South Pond. North along Watercourse
- Roa'd to eastern shores of Billington Sea and Deep Water Pond to Route 3. North on Route 3 to intersection at Route 44.
Subarea 7 Plymouth /Kingston Town Line from the coast southwest to Plymouth / Carver Town Line and south to Route 44; east along Route 44 to North Park Avenue, east to South Park Avenue, east to the Coast.
Subarea 8 Kingston Town Lines (entire Town of Kingston).
%)
5-3 Rev. 5
.,m
- )
Table 5-1. Description of Pilgrim Emergency Response Planning Areas (conc.)
Subarea 9 Duxbury/Marshfield, Duxbury/Pembroke, and Duxbury/Kingston Town Lines; east then northeast along Duxbury coast to Powder Point Bridge; from western edge of bridge east to Duxbury Beach, north to -
Duxbury/Marshfield Town Line.
}
Subarea 10 !
Marshfield/Duxbury Town Line at coast, west and northwest to Route 139. Route 139 east on Careswell Street to coast, south along coast to Marshfield/Duxbury Town Line.
Subarea 11 g/ Plympton/ Carver Town Line at Kingston Town Line, west to Route 58; s south on Route 58 to Carver /Wareham town Line, southeast to -
Carver / Plymouth Town Line; north to Carver /Plympton Town Line at Kingston.
Subarea 12 That portion of Cape Cod Bay and Atlantic Ocean extending 10 miles out from the Pilgrim Station.
O 5-4 Rev. 5
10 MILE EPZ WITH SUBAREAS
( Figure J-2 10-Mile EPZ with Subarcas ,
\ M t i
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+\ m
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, 8 , , ,
T S Mile
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3 I
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Figure 5-1. Pilgrim Station Emergency Response Planning Areas O
5-5 Rev. 5 l
r Table 5-2. Regional Evacuation Groupings Wind 2 - Miles 5 - Miles EPZ Boundary Direction From Reg. Subareas Reg. Subareas Reg. Subareas 006'-019' 1 1 2 1,2 7 1,2,5 020'-021' 1 1 3 1,2,3 8 1,2,3,5,6 022*-056' 1 1 3 1,2,? 9 1,2,3,5,6,11 057'-063* 1 1 3 1,2,3 10 1,2,3,6,11 064'-066* 1 1,12 3 1,2,3,12 10 1,2,3,6,11,12 067*-069' 1 1,12 3 1,2,3,12 11 1,2,3,6,7,11,12 070*-103' 1 1,12 4
_,3,12 12 1,3,6,7,8,11,12 104'-109' 1 1,12 4 1,3,12 13 1,3,6,7,8,9,11,12 110'-115' 1 1,12 4 1,3,12 14 1,3,6,7,8,9,12 O 116*-122' 1 1,12 ',3,12 15 0 123'-129' 1 1,12 4
5
" 3.4,12 16 1,3,7,8,9,12 1,3,4,7,8,9,12 130*-132* 1 1,12 5 1,3,4,12 17 1,3,4,7,8,9,10,12 133'-140' 1 1,12 5 1.3.4,12 18 1,3,4,8,9,10,12 141*-175' 1 1,12 6
.,4,12 19 1,4,9,10,12 176*-179' 1 1,12 6 "_,4,12 20 1,4,10,12 180*-183' 1 1,12 6 ".4.12
. 6 1,4,12 184*-305' 1 1,12 1 1,12 1 1,12 336*-318* 1 1,12 2 ~_ . 2 .12 2 1,2,12 1
I 319*-005- 1 1,12 2 ".2,12
_ 7 1,2,5,12 !
Any 21
.. ,3,4,12 22 1 - 12 b
\ l 5-6 Rev. 5
s Table 5-3. Descriptions of Evacuation Scenarios V ,
' Scenario 1 - Summer, Weekend, Midday, Good Weather All of the permanent residents are present. Tourist and beach populations are at capacity. Employees are assumed to be present at 70 percent of midweek levels in the coastal region and at 40 percent.of midweek levels throughout the rest of the EPZ. Clear weather.
f i
! Scenario 1A - Summer, Weekend, Evening, Good Weather l All of the permanent residents are present. Tourist and beach
- populations are at capacity. Employees are assumed to be present at 70 percent of midweek levels in the coastal region and at 40 percent of midweek levels throughout the rest of the EPZ. Clear I
weather. Typical northbound traffic is present on Route 3 at the start of evacuation.
l Scenario 2 - Summer, Weekend, Midday, Rain l
() Same population as for Scenario 1. Rain occurs which reduces highway capacity and free-flow speeds by 20 percent.
2 l
Scenario 2A - Summer, Weekend, Evening, Rain l Same population as for Scenario lA. Rain occurs which reduces highway capacity and free-flow speeds by 20 percent.
L Scenario 3 - Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good Weather All permanent residents are present. Tourists and beach area transients are at 75 percent of peak values. All employees are at work, as are commuters from within the EPZ who work outside the EPZ. Good weather.
Scenario 4 - Summer, Midweek, Midday, Rain Same population as for Scenario 3. Rain occurs which reduces highway capacity and free-flow speeds by 20 percent.
5-7 Rev. 5 l
l 1
l.
t
L
(~} Table 5-3. Descriptions of Evacuation Scenarios i
(_/ (conc.)
Scenario 5 - Off-season, Midweek, Midday, Good Weather All permanent residents are present. Tourist population is at 25 percent of peak. There are no beach area transicacs or boaters. Employment is at 100 percent. Clear weather.
Scenario 6 - Off-season, Midweek, Midday, Rain Same population as for Scenario 5. Rain occurs which reduces highway capacity and free-flow speeds by 20 percent.
Scenario 7 - Off-season, Midweek, Midday, Snow Same population as for Scenario 5. Snow reduces highway capacity and free-flow speeds by 25 percent. Driveways must be cleared of snow prior to the start of the evacuation trip.
\.~/ ,
Scenario 8 - Off-season, Midweek, Evening, Good Weather or Off-season, Weekend, All day, Good Weather All permanent residents are present. Tourist population is at 25 percent of peak. There are no beach area transients or boaters.
Employment is at 25 percent of the midweek peak. Clear weather.
Scenario 9 - Off-season, Midweek, Evening, Rain or Off-season, Weekend, All day, Rain Same population as for Scenario 8. Rain occurs which reduces highway capacity and free-flow speeds by 20 percent. '
l Scenario 10 - Off-season, Midwech, Evening, Snow or Off-season, Weekend, All day, Snow Same population. as for Scenario 8. Snow reduces highway capacity a. d free-flow speeds by 25 percent. Driveways must be I e
<~si cleared of snow prior to the start of the evacuation trip.
5-3 Rev. 5
1 1
Table 5-4. Percent of Population Groups !
l for Various Scenarios Population Groups Transient Emolovees Scenario Permanent Tourists Beaches Coastal Inland l Summer Weekend, Midday 100 100 100 70 40 Scenarios 1,2 Midweek, Midday 100 75 75 100 100 Scenarios 3,4 Off-season '
Midweek, Midday 100 25 0 100 100 Scenarios 5,6,7 Midweek, Evening Weekend, All day 100 25 O
Scenarios 8,9,10-0 25 25 l
I l
l 5-9 Rev, 5 t
i 1
k I
It must be emphasized that this format is for presentation '
\s) purposes, only. In conducting the analyses to estimate evacuation times, it was necessary to define the spatial distribution of traffic demand at a higher level of resolution by specifying over 150 centroids. Each centroid represents an area (or " Zone") within
' a community and a population group. The locations of these centroids are shown in Figure 1-2.
I l
I 1
I i
O .
1 1
ID V
5-10 Rev. 5 l
r i
i o I i 130 1 N j o E M Bdry NNW o NNE l l 2:6 l g io I
\
NW \ NE
, 0 3:22 1 8-M" o I i WNW 1:0 o ENE 29s) 0 o 7 o
f 719 \ s o \ o I :m7 I ins 3" i453 o oi E
o o 4 141 o
{ o io 4w o 5
- 26) o 1
162 o 661 j
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916 is8 G '
l 0 l o l
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WSW 256 o ESE l
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l 188 l l 658 ]
SSE S
I 99t6 i Population Totals w sesium i Ring Cumulative o[gp7 ,
l Ring Population , Total Population o2 Mt ! 793 i 42 Ms. I 793 2-5 Mt t 3399 '! g3 yt i 4192 l
3-10 Mt ! $002 II 410 Mi ! 9284 14EPZ 632 :! 4EPZ ~i 9916 f Figure 5-2 Employee Population, Scenarios 1,2.
5-11 Rev. 5 l
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, m.,
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iso l N ,
o ;
NNW NNE i 0-l 195 I i ! O i
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NW 39 x
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845' Vehicle Totals mai seg-Populacon Ring Cumulative !
o ,, ,,pz g,3% Ring Population Total Population 42 Mi 677 0-2 Mi 677 2 5 Mr_ 2907 ' 45 M 3584 5-10 Mt 4)l5 010 Mi 7899 14EPZ ff2 0-E PZ 4451 Figure 5-3 Employee Evacuating Vehicles, 73 Scenarios I,2.
( I x _ ,/
5-12 Rev. 5
O , ,,,,,
N
, 0 ,
rnse NNW 7 0 -
NNE
/ \ lo.un.
l 1932 ] l 0 l NW ?E 410 -
o 4403 _
o l 2197 l 5-Muss -
WNW 0 N i 0 l 0 ENE
/
O in3
's 9i0 ko0 N o
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\ 2x 0
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359 \ 0o 0 4 [ 0 0
I WId 585 1243 f 3;g3 o 0 0 0 '
0 52: 0
<0 lo i sio 0
l 242 l 4100 '
0 l 0 ;
'WSW / 640 226 ESE
,3,a 2014 l 6194 l l
i 24s62 ' Population Totals m aise w n Poputaman ! , Rin8 } Cumulative 0 m EPZ Boundary . Ring . Population Total Population 0 2 Ms. ! 224 0 2 Mt 224 15 Mt ! 5813 I 45 Mt 6037 h 510 Mt f 15816 f ! Owl 0 Mt I 21851 14EPZ l 3009 > ! 0 EPZ I 24862 Figure 5-4 Transient Population Scenarios 3,4.
O 5-13 Rev. 5
,~
I O N.A l 20s4 i N 0 ;
EPZ Bdry NNW . O ^ NNE
\
,- aMa. /
757 i
-d ;, j 0 NW /
% x NE 0 !
1728
'k 0
\ \
l 861 l 396 \
\ 5-Miles /
o
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10 i WNW 0 y.' ,0 '\ ENE
/
721 N / \ 356 k 0 j0 /
s 0 i
\ 2 smiles ,/0 i
, 3 7 0 l 1976 l ;;9
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l 95 kVSW w W/ n l
O 1639
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,e :si 5% 88 ESE l
793 f
I s 0 2432 i / ! I ;92 Sw N M SE 25 N ~~_ #', ,3 SSW 596 SSE S
'749 Vehicle Totals w ses-' Cumulauve Populauon RinE o ,o gpz ,% Ring Populadon Total Populadon 42 Mi 48 0-2 Ma RR
- 5 Mi 2277 0-5 Mi 2365 510 Mi 6201 410 Mt 8566 l 14rPZ ll83 4EPZ 9749 Figure 5-5 Transient Population Vehicles Scenarios 3,4.
fx i)
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5-14 Rev. 5
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{ 5557 l Population Totals Cumulative Populanon ; RinE O to EPZ Boundary Ring Population ! Total Population 02Mt 50 42 Mt 50 2 5 Mi. '
1298 i. 0 5 Mi. 1348 510 Mt i 3540 I I 010 Ms. 4888 10-EPZ l 669 il 0 EPZ 5557 Figure 5-6 Transient Population Scenarios 5,6,7.
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- 5'8"""' !
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Mi. 5 5 5-10 Mt 1388 I 010 Mi. 1913 14FfZ 265 ' 4EPZ 2178 Figure 5-7 Transient Population Vehicles Scenarios 5. 6. 7.
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- Total , Population 0-2 M t 284 8 02Mt 284 l 25 Mi. i 1230 45 Mi. 1514 510 Mt 2157 010 Mt i 3671 1 14EPZ k 396 0 EP7. ! 4067 Figure 5-8 Employees.
Scenarios 8,9,10.
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3477 Vehicle Totals T ut sesment Populanon RinE Cumulative j O to EPZ Boundary Ring Population Total Population
_42 Mi 243 42 Mi 243 i 2-5 Mi 1053 0-5 Mi. 12 % j 5 10 Mi 1833 010 Mi 3129 14EPZ 348 4EPZ 1477 Figure 5-9 Employee Evacuating Vehicles i
f~s Scenados 8. 9.10.
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"'""' i Cumulative Populanon Rin8 0 otPzsouna ,y Ring Population '! Total Population 0-2 Mi 50 0-2 Mi 50 2-5 Mt 1298 ! 45 Mi_ ' 1348 5 10 Mi. 3538 ~! 0-10 Mt 3 4886 10-EPZ 4445 i 0-EPZ 9331 Figure 5-10 Transient Population Scenarios 8,9,10.
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5-20 Rev. 5 End l
e 6.
(]m TRAFFIC CONTROL AND MANAGEMENT TACTICS This section presents the current set of traffic control and management tactics which are designed to expedite the movement of evacuating traffic. The resources to implement these tactics e include:
o Personnel with the capabilities of successfully performing the planned control functions of traffic guides.
o Equipment to assist these personnel in the performance of their tasks:
- Traffic Barriers
- Traffic Cones
- Signs o A plan which defines all necessary details and is documented in a format which is easy to understand.
The functions to be performed in the field are:
- 1. Facilitate evacuating traffic movements which serve to expedite travel out of the EPZ along routes which the A analysis has found to be most effective.
- 2. Discourace
)
traffic movements which permit evacuating l
vehicles to travel in a direction which takes them i significantly closer to the power station, or which interferes with the productive flow of other evacuees. )
I We employ the terms " facilitate" and " discourage" rather than
" enforce" and " prohibit" to indicate the need for flexibility in performing the traffic control function. There are always legitimate reasons for a driver to prefer a direction other than that indicated. For example:
o He/she may be traveling home from work or from another location, to join other family members preliminary to evacuating.
)
o An evacuating driver may be taking a detour from the evacuation route in order to pick up a relative.
o The driver may be an emergency worker en route to perform an important activity.
The implementation of a plan must provide room for the
/' N application of sound judgment. The traffic cones and barriers are deployed as indicated in the sketches of Appendix I, so that there b remains room for vehicles to maneuver through these guides. That is, cones and barriers will not physically obstruct passage. In 6-1 Rev. 5 1
I
l l
addition, priority will be given to transit vehicles (buses, vans, I
ambulances) and to other emergency vehicles (police, fire, tow trucks).
This set of control tactics is the outcome of the following process:
- 1. A field survey of these critical locations.
l The sketches of Appendix I are based on the data collected during field surveys and upon large-scale maps. We have found these maps to be less than accurate in some respects.
I
- 2. Consultation with police department personnel of the towns who will be implementing them.
Clearly, any control tactics should be reviewed by trained personnel who are experienced in controlling traffic and who are f amiliar with the likely traffic patterna. Also these personnel know which intersections i are probable bottlenecks under heavy traffic demand conditions for normal traffic patterns.
- 3. Prioritization of these TCP. Application of traffic control
) at ,some TCP will have a more pronounced influence on l : expediting traffic movements, than applying control at other l TCP. Thus, during the mobilization of personnel to respond to the emergency situation, those TCP which are assigned a higher l priority, will be manned earlier than the others.
This setting of priorities should be undertaken with the concurrence of town police. These priorities should be compatible with the availability of local manpower resources.
In general the following guidelines were used in assigning Traffic Control Point Priorities:
1 Priority 1 - Assigned to those locations where two or more !
) evacuation routes interact, or special traf fic control tactics l are employed to enhance route compliance and expedite traffic movements.
Priority 2 - Assigned to locations which are expected to carry l high volumes of traffic. l Priority 3 - Assigned to local collector roads. ;
Priority 4 - Assigned to local roads which handle low traffic l volumes.
1 6-2 Rev. 5 1
s In each sketch which appears in Appendix I, the control policy at each TCP is presented in a manner which is self-explanatory.
Locations are labeled as:
o Traffic Control Points (P-T-01) where traffic control is applied to assist evacuees. At the conclusion of the i evacuation, traffic control points are abandoned.
i o Traffic / Access Control Points (P-AT-17) where the traffic l
l control function is applied to assist evacuees until the completion of the evacuation. Following the evacuation, the location is needed to restrict access to an area. The access ~ control at a given location might have several configurations depending on the Regions evacuated, o Access Control Points (P-A-53) where access to a given area is to be restricted. The access control at a given location might have several configurations deperiding on the Region evacuated.
Appendix I contains the following information for each town identified as having a- direct traffic or access control responsitility:
3 o A map, indicating the - location of traffic and access .
- control points o A summary table, providing manpower and equipment estimates o A table indicating which access control points are activated for all evacuation regions o Sketches of all traffic and access control points.
I O
G 6-3 Rev. 5 END
I I
- 7. TRAFFIC ROUTING PLANS
(}
Evacuation routes are composed of two distinct components:
o Routing from a community being evacuated to the boundary of the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) o Routing of evacuees from the EPZ boundary to Host communities and reception centers.
Evacuees should be routed within the EPZ in such a way as to minimize their exposure to risk. This requirement is met by routing traffic so as to move away from the location of Pilgrim Station to the extent practicable and by delineating evacuation I
1 routes which expedite the movement of evacuating vehicles.
The routing of evacuees frem the EPZ boundary to the host communities must also be responsive to several considerations:
o Minimizing the amount of travel outside the EPZ, from the points where tnese routes cross the EPZ boundary to the reception centers.
o Relating the anticipated volume of traffic destined to each (p) reception center, to the capacity of the reception center facilities.
o Assigning the residents of those towns which are members of a regional educational system, to the same reception center, to the extent possible. this would expedite the reunion ' of school :hildren with other members of the l
household, should the evacuation take place during a school day.
Consequently, there is a linkage between the routing plans and the choice of host communities. In light of this linkage, a review of the allocation of host communities to conmunities within the EPZ ;as performed. The current assignment of '.ost communities to cc=munities within the EPZ is shown below:
Receotion Center EPZ Subareas Serviced Bratntree 4, 9. 1:
Br:dgewater 7, 8, l'.
Taunton 1, 1, 3, 5, 6,
~
(Parents with children in Plymouth schools)
O 7-1 Rev. 5 l 1 L I 1
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f- The routing plans for each of these towns are presented in Appendix J.
Appendix K presents maps -- one for each town --
delineating the evacuation routes from each community within the EPZ.
" Traffic control and routing plans evolved from preliminary designs which were reviewed by local law enforcement personnel.
Contacts were maintained with town police and Massachusetts State Police officials. These contacts included the submission to the police of materials for review; telephone interviews, and, personal visits. Exhibit 7-1 presents the cover letter sent with the review materials. Table 7-1 presents the list of traffic management plan recipients.
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(, Exhibit 7-1 Letter Interested Parties Dear -
Boston Edison Company is currently undergoing a review of the Evacuation Time Estimate (ETE) and Traffic Management Plan (TMP) for the Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station.
In conjunction with this review, and in order to provide a timely and comprehensive review of this document, we are soliciting information regarding recent town and State population and roadway changes. These may include local planning criteria changes town growth rate changes, road network and major highway modifications. In some cases, notable constmetion and development may have occurred which may impact the Traffic Management Plan for your town or community.
I Please identify the specific changes that may impact the movement of evacuating traffic in your community. Boston Edison representatives hope to meet with you within the next several months to address and support your concerns. .
If you have any questions. please contact Ed Hartnett of my staff at (508) 830-8953.
O V
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_'~2 Rev. 5
() Table 7-1. Traffic Management Plan Review Agencies Town of Bridaewater Town of Carver 22 School St. P.O. Box 580 l Bridgewater, MA 02324 Carver, MA 02330 Town of Marshfield 1639A Ocean Street Marshfield, MA 02050 Town of Duxbury Fire Department Hdqtrs.
668 Tremont St. Massachusetts Emeroency Duxbury, MA 02331 Manacement Acency i 400 Worcester Road PO Box 1496 i Town of Kinoston Framingham, MA 01701 1 Six Maple Ave.
Kingston, MA 02364 i Massachusetts Emeroency Manacement Acency Town of Plymouth ^#*" "*# 9"" *#8 83 Court St. PO Box 54 Plymouth, MA 02360 Bridgewater, MA 02324 NY Town oI Taunton .
15 Summer Street Town of Braintree Taunton, MA 02780 1 J K Memorial Dr.
Bra {intree, MA 02184 Massachusetts State Police Troop D West Grove St.
Middleboro, MA 02346 L
7_4 ppf , 4 End
- 8. ACCESS CONTROL WITHIN. AND AT THE PERIPHERY OF. THE EMERGENCY PLANNING ZONE (EPZ) AND DIVERSION ROUTES The purpose of peripheral access control is to restrict entry to the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) and to expedite the traffic movement of evacuating vehicles. Entry should be permitted for the following groups:
o Commuters returning to the EPZ, to gather members of their household for the purpose of evacuation.
o Transit vehicles (buses, vans, ambulances) dispatched to the EPZ to participate in any evacuation.
o All vehicles transporting emergency response personnel.
All other travelers seeking to gain entry to the EPZ should be denied access and provided with local diversion routes. These local diversion routes will enable those denied entry'to reverse their paths and seek other routes outside the EPZ.
Figure 8-1 indicates the major diversion route and the cordon line around the EPZ. The intersections of thisPosts cordon with highways demark the locations of Access Control (ACP).
Appendix I presents maps, summary tables, and sketches detailing O the traffic management at each identified location. Appendix L presents a list of access control points to be activated for each evacuation region.
The diversion route was developed to satisfy the following objectives:
- 1. The route should be sufficiently removed from the EPZ so as to minimize (to the extent possible) the extent that diverted traffic will mingle with, and thereby impede, the evacuating vehicles traveling toward their respective host relocation centers. Any such mingling, and consequent impedance should take place well outside the EPZ.
- 2. To the extent possible, the diversion route should consist of high-capacity highways.
A comparison of the diversion route in Figure 8-1, with the evacuation routes shown in Appendix K and described in Appendix J, will indicate that the first objective is satisfied.
Specifically, the diversion router chosen (i.e. I-93/Rcute 128, I-95, I495/Rouce 25, US Route 6) offers travelers a path around the Pilgrim EPZ along major, limited-access routes.
O 8-1 Rev. 5 L
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(N Diversion Route and Access Control Cordon For I
\v ] Pilgrim Station Emergency Planning Zone 8-2 Rev. 5
F G Discussions with the Massachusetts State Police have indicated V the importance of maintaining traffic flow through the I-93, Route 3, Route 128 interchange. Consequently, it is proposed to inform l
southbound 18 and suggestvehicles of the the use ofclosure of Route the diversion 3 southbound at Route route. Drivers will be i .
informed signs, of these conditions through the use of temporary road erected along southbound I-93 prior to the interchange. Route 3 Traffic proceeding south on Route 3 will also be informed via road signs of the closure of Route 3 at the Route 18 interchange.
An advisory sign will also be placed along southbound I-93 at Furnace Brook Parkway to recommend that drivers use southbound Route 37 (Willard St.) as an alternative path to Route 128. Drivers l who divert using this path will relieve traffic on- the I-93 connector to Route 128 when the Braintree Reception Center is active.
In the event of an accident at Pilgrim Station, traffic from Cape Cod will be diverted from the Sagamore Bridge to the Bourne Bridge. Thus, use of the Sagamore Rotary and westbound Route 6 north of the canal will be reserved for evacuating vehicles. At the_ option of state officials, traffic exiting Cape Cod across the Bourne Bridge will be routed onto Route 25. Evacuating traffic will enter Route 25 farther west, in Wareham. After the completion O of evacuation from within the EPZ, the Sagamore Bridge would be reopened to traffic from Cape Cod, at the discretion of state officials.
Sketches of specific traffic control plans are presented in Appendix I.
! The second objective has been satisfied by the choice of routes. All diversion routes are multilane highways. Routes I-93, I-95, I-495 and 25 are limited access highways.
The northern end of the diversion route connects with I-93 at the Route 3 interchange, south of Boston, while the southern end of the diversion route connects with Routes 6 and 28, the primary access roads to Cape Cod.
The cordon line and the ACP locations were developed to satisfy the following objectives:
- 1. Control all open roads crossing each Region boundary.
- 2. Select ACP locations
- as close to the EPZ boundary as possible so as to minimize the number of people who could originate a trip O into the EPZ from points between the ACP and the EPZ 8-3 Rev. 5
Q D
boundary.
- so as to minimize the number of personnel needed to secure the EPZ boundary.
- which will enable those vehicles denied entry to the EPZ, to safely change direction with a minimum of delay and turbulence.
- 3. Prioritize all ACP Priority 1 is assigned to all primary " Numbered" routes which service substantive volumes of traffic.
- Priority 2 is assigned to all other numbered routes.
Priority 3 is assigned to all local " collector" roads.
Priority 4 is assigned to all local roads which service low volumes of traffic.
Based on a careful study of available, large-scale county maps, the selected ACP locations satisfy objectives 1 and 2. The need for prioritization arises because well-defined criteria are needed to identify:
o The sequence in which the ACP will be manned, o Those ACP where a barrier, with a sign, will suffice for purposes of control, thus obviating the need for police personnel. Depending on circumstances, all Priority 4 ACP (o'j may be selected for unmanned (i.e. barrier + sign, only) ; ;
control and, possibly, Priority 3 ACP as well.
o Perform a field survey o sketch all ACP o Distribute to police for review i The assignment of ACP by region depends on the geographical properties of each region. A total of 22 sets of Access Control Points were developed; one set for each Region. Appendix L presents this information. Note that all TCP within the EPZ should be activated even when the Directive to Evacuate affects a portion of the EPZ. Those TCP which are located outside the Region which is evacuated will be needed to expedite the movement of evacuees outside that Region who elect to evacuate spontaneously. At the completion of the evacuation process only the appropriate ACP will continue to be manned.
Identification and Installation of Control Devices All Access Control Posts ( ACP) are designed to restrict access into the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) or into the Region ordered to evacuate, to those vehicles whose occupants will provide some form of emergency-related service. The remaining traffic will be denied entry and will be provided an alternative route which p directs them away from the EPZ.
Y 8-4 Rev. 5
Whenever traffic operations at a location are restricted, it O is sound practice to inform drivers in a timely and unambiguous manner, and to assert guidance control. Both needs are fulfilled, in part, by installing suitable traffic control devices. These devices include:
o Regulatory Signs o Barricades o Cones o Trail Blazer Signs o Illumination It is essential that these control devices, installed singly or in combination, satisfy the specifications of the Manual on Uniform Traffic Control Devices (MUTCD). The need for uniform standards 8-1.
is best explained by reference to the MUTCD; see Exhibit In the following discussion, we refer to relevant sections of the MUTCD as they apply to the Pilgrim Evacuation Plan.
Exhibit 8-2 consists of excerpts from Section G, Part II, of the MUTCD which is entitled, " Signing for Civil Defense". These provisions Plan.
of Exhibit 8-2 apply directly to the Pilgrim Evacuation At ACP which are located at interchanges with Interstate Highways, and at some other Priority 1 locations, it will be necessary EPZ.
to install barricades on roads providing access to the These barricades should be portable (either " wing" type, which folds, or with detachable footings) so that they may easily be transported to the ACP locations and installed.. For Priority 4 ACP, and possibly for (some) Priority 3 ACP, barricade installations which physically block the lanes will replace the cones indicated on the sketches of Appendix I, when the ACP is unmanned.
Exhibit 8-3 presents excerpts from the MUTCD specifications for barricades. Note that signs may be attached to barricades: for example, the AREA CLOSED sign i shown on Exhibit 8-2 should be mounted on all such barricades. Barricade Type III is recommended by the MUTCD for road closure. Lighting devices -- flashing and steady yellow lights --
enhance the visual target value of It is also permissible to indicate the cause for a restricted movement. For example, the sign AREA CLOSED -
RADIATION may be used if it is believed that improved compliance will result. One or more arrows indicating the direction of the diversion routes are also advisable.
8-5 Rev. 5
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O barricades and traffic cones. If available, we recommend that lighting devices be attached to all barricades and clamped onto every third cone.used at high priority ACP and TCP locations. Arrow Panels and advance warning signs are recommended for use on approaches to all ACP and TCP located on Expressways so as to
- inform drivers that traffic will be channelized onto an exit ramp.
See Section E, Part 6 of the MUTCD for details on lighting devices and Section B, expressways. Part 6 of the MUTCD for channelization treatments on Exhibit 8-4 consists of excerpts from Section C, Part 6 of the MUTCD, which describe the design and application of cones as channelizing devices. We prefer the use of cones, rather than drums, because:
o They_are more portable o They will be needed only for a relatively short period.of time (hours) while drums are generally used at'a site over 1 a period of days or weeks o They are less costly and consume less storage space 1
o They take up less room .on the highway, allowing the vehicles more room to maneuver.
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0 8-6 Rev. 5 l
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Exhibit 8-1. General Provisions of the MUTCD 1A-1 Purpose of Traffic Control Devices Design of the device should assure that The purpose of traffic control devices such features as size, contrast, colors, shape, composition, and lighting and warrants for their use is to help insure reflectorization are combined or draw
.' highway safety by providing for the orderly attention to the device: that shape, size, to and predictable movement of all traffic, colors, and simplicity of message combine to motorized and non-motorized, throughout the produce a clear meaning; that legibility and national highway transportation system, and to size combine with placement to permit adequate provide such guidance and warnings as are time for responses and that unifomity, size, needed to insure the safe and informed legibility and reasonableness of the operation of individual elements of the traffic stream. regulation combine to command respect. Except for symbols on traffic control devices, minor Traf fic control devices are used to modifications in the design of specific design direct and assist vehicle operators in the elements of a device may be necessary, provided that guidance and navigation tasks required to the essential appearance traverse safely any facility open to public characteristics are met. All symbols must be travel.
adopted using the procedures described in Section lA-6. All symbols shall be Guide and information signs are solely unmistakably similar to or mirror images of those shown herein, for the purpose of traffic control and are not an advertising medium.
Placement of the device should assure 1A-2 manruirements of Traffic Control Devices that it is within the cone of vision of the viewer so that it will command attention; that This Manual sets forth the basic it is positioned with respect to the point, object, or situation to which it applies to principles that govern the design and usage of aid in conveying the proper meanings and t. hat traffic control devices, These principles location, its combined with suitable j appear throughout the text in discussions of the devices to which they apply, and it is legibility, is such that a driver traveling at i important they be normal speed has adequate time to make the that given primary proper response, consideration in the selection and application ,
of each device. Operation or application should assure )
The Manual presents traffic control that appropriate devices and related equipment device standards for all streets and highways are installed to meet the traf fic requirements k open .to public travel regardless of type or at a given location. Furthermore, the device !
class or the governmental agency having must be placed and operated in a uniform and jurisdiction, Where a device is intended for consistent manner to assure, to the extent possible, that vehicle operators can be limited application only, or for a specific expected to properly respond to the device, system, the text specifies the restrictions on based on their previous exposure to similar its use.
traffic control situations.
To be effective, a traffic control device should meet five basic requirements: Maintene ce of devices should be to high standards t' assure that legibility is
- 1. Fulfill a need.
retained, that the @ vice is visible, and that 2, Command attention, it is removed if no n...b. . needed. Clean.
- 3. Convey a clear, simple meaning, legible, properly mounted devices in good 4, Command respect of road users + worxing condition command the 19spect of
- 5. venscle cperators and pedestrians. In Give adequate time for proper addition to physical maintenance, functional response. ;
aintenance is required to adjust needed t In the case of regulatory devices, the traffic control devices to current conditions and to remove unnecessary traffic control actions required of vehicle operators and devices. The fact that a device is in good pedestrians should be specified by State physical condition should not be a basis for statute, or by local ordinance or resolution deterring needed replacement or change.
whien are consistent with national standards. Furtnermore, carelessly executed maintenance Unif ormity of meaning is vital or effective traf fic control devices , Meanings ascribed to can destroy the value of a group of devices by throwing them out of balance. For example, dev2ces in this Manual are in general accord with the Uniform Vehicle Code of the National replacement of a sign in a group or series by Committee on Uniform Traffic L.aws and one that is disproportionately large may tend Ordinances, which is the nationally recognized
.o deprectate others in the vicinity.
standard in this area, Uniformity of traffic control devices simplifies the task of the road user because Five basic considerations are employed at aids in recognition and understanding, It i i
to ;nsure that these requirements are met: aids road users, police officers, and traffic design, placement, operation, maintenance, and courts by uniformity, giving everyone the same
- nterpretation. It aid, public highway and traffic officials through economy in g anufacture, installation, maintenance, and seministration.
8-7 Rev. 5
l Exhibit 8-2. Excerpts from MUTCD Section G: Signing for Civil Defense In the event of a disaster there will 2J-8 Emergancy Aid Cantars Sign (CD-6) be a closing of highways that cannot be used, a controlled operation of certain designated In the event of emergency, State and
- highways, the establishing of regulation posts local authorities will establish various i .
for the expediting of essential traffic, and centers for civilian relief, consnunication, the provision of emergency centers for medical service, and similar purposes. To civilian aid, guide the public to such centers a series of To guide and control highway traf fic in directional signs will be needed. These signs shall carry the designation of the center and an emergency, special highway signs will be an arrow indicating the direction to the needed. The signs here specified have been center. They shall be erected as needed, at approved and are here prescribed as standard intersections and elsewhere, on the right-hand for use when and where applicable in the civil side of the roadway, at a height in urban defense program, areas of at least 7 feet, and no less than 1 foot back from the face of the curb, and in These emergency signs will not rural areas at a height of S feet, 6 to 10 permanently displace any of the standard signs feet from the roadway edge.
that are normally applicable, and as conditions permit they should be replaced or These signs shall carry one of the augmented by standard signs, following legends, as appropriate, or others I
designating similar emergency facilities:
2J-2 Design of Civil Defense signs DECONTAMINATION CDTTER For economy in stockpiling and in REGISTRATION CDffER emergency fabrication, all the special civil WELFARE CDTTER defense signs, with the exception of the MEDICAL CDffER Evacuation Route Marker, are designed for a single size of plate measuring 24 by 30 inenes, and have a black legend and border on a white background. The background should be reflectorized.
1 In an emerge.ncy these signs may be !'
p)
(
needed in large numbers and are essentially temporary use, for Consideration Q/ should accordingly be given to fabrication from any light and economical their material that can serve through the emergency period.
Any of these signs may be accompanied ' '
by a standard triangular starker for marking y areas contaminated by biological and chemical warfare agents and radioactive fallout. ,, I M
23-4 Area closed sign (CD-2)
The AREA CLOSED sign shall be used to close a roadway entering an area from which -' i i
all traffic is excluded because of dangerous radiological or biological contamination. It
,-S M -- hkhh shall be erected on the shoulder as near as l practicable to the right-hand edge of the roadway, or preferably on a portable mounting or barricade partly or wholly in the roadway. l q
For bent visibility, particularly at night, q l its height should not normally exceed 4 feet '
f rom that pavement to the bottom of the sign. h O
Unless adequate advance warning signs are used, it should not te so placed as to create g )
a complete and unavoidable blockade. Where feasible, the sign should be located at an g intersection that provides a detour route. E' x N" (3
iu !
8-8 Rev. 5
m Exhibit 8-3. Excerpts frca the MUTCD on Barricades Barricades shall be one of three types; Barricade rails should be supported in Type I, Type II, or Type III. The characteristics of these types are shown in a manner that will allow them to be seen by Figure 6-14 and Table VI-1. the motorist and provide a stable support not easily blown over by the wind or traffic. For Barricades with stripes that begin at Type I barricades, the support may include
+
the upper right side and slope downward to the other unstriped horizontal panels necessary to provide stability. To facilitate rapid lower left side are to be designated as identification of channelizing devices on a
'right' (R) barricades, Barricades with stripes that begin at the upper left side and job site, only the name and phone number of an slope downward to the lower right side are to agency, contractor, or supplier may be shown be designated as 'left' (L) barricades. on the nonreflective surface of the face part of a barricade. Such identification shall be Markings for barricade rails shall be in one color and nonreflective with letters not to exceed 1 inch in height.
alternate orange and white stripes Isloping downward at an angle of 45 degrees in the The entire area of orange and white direction traffic is to pass),
shall be reflectorized with a material that has a smooth, sealed outer surface that will Where a barricade extends entirely display the same approximate size, shape and across a roadway, it is desirable that the color day and night.
stripes slope downward in the direction toward which traffic must turn in detouring. Where both right and left turns are provided f or, Barricades are located adjacent to the chevron striping may slope downward in traf fic and therefore are subject to impact by both directions from the center of the barricade. errant venicles. Because of their vulnerable position and the possible hazard they could create, they should be constructed of lightweight materials and have no rigid stay bracing for A-frame designs.
Table VI-1 Barricade Characteristics Type
- I II III Width of Rai1*** 8* man-12* max 8' min-12* max l Length of Rail *** 8* min-12* max 2 ft. min 2 ft. min 4 ft. min Width of Stripes ** 6 in. 6 in. 6 in.
Height 3 ft. min 3 ft. min 5 ft. min ft.tmoer of 2 (one each 4 (two each 3 if facing traffic 3 Feflectorized direction) direction) in one direction )
Rail Faces 6 if facing traffic in two directions For wooden barricades, nominal lurr.ber dimensions will be satisf actory.
For rails less than 3-feet long, 4-inch-wide stripes shall be used.
Barricades intended for use on expressways, f reeways and other high speed roadways shall have a minimum of 270 square inches of reflective area facing traffic.
I l
8-9 Rev. 5
Q Exhibit 8-4. Excerpts frosa the MUTCD on Cone Design D and Application Traf fic cones and tubular markers of Traf fic cones may be easily stacked on various configurations are available. These a truck and one worker can carry and shall be a minimum of 18 inches in height with distribute several cones with asse. This
~ a broadened base and may be made of various mobility and flexibility (which cannot be materials able to withstand impact without equaled by Type I barricades) increases the dranage to themselves or to vehicles. Twenty- usefulness of these devices, eight Anches should be the minimum height of cones used on freeways and other high-speed when cones are used, precautions are roadways and on all facilities during hours of necessary to ensure they will not be blown darkness or whenever more conspicuous guidance over or displaced. They may be particularly is needed. Orange shall be the predominant critical adjacent to lanes of moving traffic color on cones. They should be kept clean and where wind may be created by passing vehicles.
bright for maximum target value. For Some cones are constructed with bases that may n2ghttime use they shall be reflectorized or be filled with ballast. With others it may be equipped with lighting devices for maximum necessary to double the cones or use heavier visibility. Reflectorized material shall have weight cones, special weighted bases, or a smooth, sealed outer surface that will weights such as sand bag rings that can be display the same approximate color day and dropped over the cones and onto the base to night. provide increased stability. These added weights should not be sufficient to present a Reflectorization of tubular markers hasard if the devices are struck shall be a minimum of two, three-inen-wide inadvertently, white bands placed a maximum of 2 inches from the top with a maximum of 6 inches between the in general, traffic cones have a bands. Retroreflection of cones shall be greater target value than do the tubular-provided by a minimum 6-inch-wide white band shaped devices. However, the target value of placed a minimum of 3 inches but no more than either device may be enhanced during the 4 inches from the top. When the 28-inch or daytime by the insertion of ar. orange flag in larger size cones are used, the standard 6- the top and at night, by reflectorization or inch band shall be supplemented with an the use of lighting devices, addftional 4-inch white band spaced a minimum of 2 inches below the 6-inch band.
SC-4 Come Application Included under this heading are a group '
of devices whose primary function is the channelization of traffic. They may be conical in shape, but there are also tubu3 n -
shaped devices available capable of performing the same function. They may be set on the surface of the roadway or rigidly attached for continued use.
I 1
D J
8-10 Rev. 5 End 1
l
r 9.
O V
EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES (ETE) FOR GENERAL POPULATION This section presents the current results of the computer analyses using the IDYNEV System. These results cover:
o
. 12 evacuation scenarios as described in Table 9-1.
o 22 regions within the Pilgrim Station EPZ, as defined in Table 9-2. Each region consists of one or more Emergency Response Planning Areas (Subareas). These Subareas were shown on Figure 5-1; the communities comprising each Subarea are listed in Table 9-3.
These ETE for each Region-Scenario combination, are presented in Tables 9-4 through 9-9.
o Table 9-4 presents the ETE for the area within a circle with a radius of two miles centered at Pilgrim Station.
o Table 9-5 presents the ETE for the area within'a circle with a radius of five miles centered at Pilgrim Station. I o Table 9-6 presents the ETE for the area within a circle with a radius of ten miles centered at Pilgrim Station.
o Table 9-7 presents the ETE for the entire Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) of Pilgrim Station. -
o Table 9-8 presents the ETE for the regions directed to evacuate. For example, if it is determined that everyone within 5 miles of the Station should evacuate, then all communities within Region 21 (Subareas 1, 2, 3, 4, 12) will be directed to evacuate. The ETE of interest, then, are those which apply to evacuees who begin their trips from within 5 miles of the Station. Additional travel time from the regional boundary to the EPZ boundary is somewhat of 1
academic interest since the evacuees are then outside the specified area of potential risk. Thus Table 9-8 presents the ETE which are of primary importance within the context of emergency planning.
o Table 9-9 presents the ETE for Scenarios lA and 2A, The values of ETE are obtained by interpolating from IDYNEV output, which are generated at 3 0-minute intervals, then rounded to the nearest 5 minutes. Thus, the numerical precision of these values is within 110 minutes. Recently, software was developed to l l'
perform this interpolation, providing somewhat more accurate estimates. Again we emphasize that all ETE are referenced to the Evacuation Directive. I O
9-1 Rev. 5 i
Table 9-1. Description of Evacuation Scenarios 1-10
\ Scenario Season D,2 Time Weather Cerrants 1 Summer Weekend Midday Good Tourist and beach area population at capacity.
. Employees are at 704 of midweek along the coastal ocea, 40% in remaining areas. Tourists fill al. available seasonal and overnight facilities.
- A
. Summer Weekend Evening Good As acove. Heavy traffic on Route 3 northbound.
2 Summer Weekend Midday Rain As aoove. Sudden rain occurs with tourist and beach population at capacity
- ncurrent with accident at Pilgrim Station.
lA Summer Neekend Midday Rain As acove. Heavy traffic on Route 3 northbound.
3 Summer Midweek Midday Good Beach area and tourist population at 75% of capacity.
Employees are at 100% of midweek work force.
Summer Midween Midday Rain As aoove. Sudden rain occurs.
5 Off-season Mid mek Midday Good Tourist population at 25% of L capacity for open facilitiea. ;
- No beach area transients.
Employees at 100%.
5 Off-season Midweek Midday Rain As above. but for inclement (rain) weather.
~
off-season Midweek Midday Snow As above, but for inclement (snow) weather. Evacuees must clear driveways.
! Off-season Midweek Evening Good Trur:st population at 25% of Meerend All day capacity. No beach area transients. Employees at 25% of midwe e r. . midday work force.
- Off-season ";dweer. Evening Rain As 3:ove, but for inclement Weekend All day trains weather.
"0
. off-season Midweek Evening Snow As above, but for inclement Weekend All day '
isn:wn weather. Evacuees must clear driveways.
A
(
(
9-2 Rev. 5
Table 9-2. Regional Evacuation Groupings Wind 2 - Miles 5 - Miles EPZ Boundary
.* Direction From Reg. Subareas Reg. Subareas Reg. Subareas 006*-019* 1 1 2 1,2 7 1.2.5 020*-021" 1 1 3 1,2,3 8 1,2,3,5,6 022*-056* 1 1 3 1,2,3 9 1,2,3,5,6,11 057*-063* 1 1 3 1,2,3 10 1,2,3,6,11 064*-066* 1 1,12 3 1,2,3,12 10 1,2,3,6,11,12
'067*-069* 1 1,12 3 1,2,3,12' il 1,2,3,6,7,11,12 070*-103* 1 1,12 4 1,3,12 12 1,3,6,7,8,11,12 104*-109* 1 1,12 4 1,3,12 13 1,3,6,7,8,9,11,12 110*-115* 1 1,12 4 1,3,12 14 1,3,6,7,8,9,12 116*-122* 1 1,12 4 1,3,12 15 1,3,7,8,9,12 123*-129* 1 1,12 5 1,3,4,12 16 1,3,4,7,8,9,12 130*-132* 1 1,12 5 1,3,4,12 17 1,3,4,7,8,9,10,12 133*-140* 1 1,12 5 1,3,4,12 18 1,3,4,8,9,10,12 141*-175* 1 1,12 6 1,4,12 19 1,4,9,10,12 176*-179* 1 1,12 6 1,4,12 20 1,4,10,12 180*-183* 1 1,12 6 1,4,12 6 1,4,12 184*-305* 1 1,12 1 1,12 1 1,12 306*-318* 1 1,12 2 1,2,12 2 1,2,12 319*-005* 1 1,12 2 1,2,12 7 1,2,5,12
-Any 21 1,2,3,4,12 22 1 - 12 1
v 9-3 Rev, 5
1 f
l l
/~ Table 9-3. Description of the Emergency Response Planning
(_)} Subareas of the Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station (PNPS) l Subarea Description Towns !
, 1 Includes the area within two miles of Plymouth i the PNPS.
2 Includes the area within a portion of an Plymouth annular ring extending from the boundary of Subarea 1 to approximately the 5 miles south of the PNPS.
3 Includes the area within a portion of an Plymouth annular ring extending from the boundary of Subareas 1 and 2 to approximately the 5 miles ;
west of the PNPS.
Includes that portion on Duxbury Eeach, i
4 '
Plymouth Saguish Neck and Clarke Island which lies Duxbury south of the Powder Point Bridge.
5 Includes the area within a portion of an Plymouth annular ring extending from the boundary of Subarea 2 south to the EPZ boundary,
/n1 (m/ 6 Includes the area within a portion of an -Plymouth annular ring extending from the boundaries of Subareas 3 and 5 west to the Plymouth-Carver town line and north to Route 44.
7 Includes that portion of the Town of Plymouth Plymouth south of the Plymouth-Kingston town 'ine, north of Route 44 and extending from the coastline west to the Plymouth-Carver town line. 1 3 Includes the area ccmprising the Town of Kingston Kingston.
9 Includes the area comprising the Town of Duxbury Duxbury.
10 Includes that portion of the Town of Marshfield Marshfield .;hich is south of Route _29 (Careswell St.)
11 Includes the area comprising the Tcwn of Carver Carver East of Route 53 12 Includes the area of Plymouth, Kinaston, T Duxbury, Massachusetts and Cape Cod 3ays
[^/
(_ east to approximately 10 miles from the PNPS.
9-4 Rev. 5
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Table 9-9.
O Evacuation Time Estimates for Scenarios lA and 2A:
Q Summer, Weekend, Evening
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l l
Elapsed Time (Hrs.. Min.) from the Directive to Evacuate needed to clear the indicated areas:
Ecenario 2 Miles 5 Miles 10 Miles Entire EPZ l 3:35 4:20 4:35 4:40 1A 3:35 4:40 4:45 5:05 Clear Weather 2 3:55 6:05 6:_0 6:10 2A 3:55 6:15 6:20 6:20 Rain Session 1A and 2A were undertaken to test the sensitivity of ETE to changes in traffic volumes along Route 3 at the time the evacuation directive is issued. These scenarios postulate an evacuation of the entire EPZ during a summer, weekend, evening when traffic flow along Route 3 is at peak hour volumes and 80 percent of the peak hour flow is moving northbound.
n Comparisons between Scenarios 1A and 2A and their associated ,
Scenarios 1 and 2 are based upon Revision 0 volumes. The ccmparisons indicate that for the postulated conditions, the ETE would increase by between 10 and 25 minutes.
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,r The issue of voluntary evacuation must be addressed when the
's evacuation directive is issued to regions which comprise an area less than the entire EPZ. Voluntary evacuees are defined as those people who live within the EPZ in subareas for which an evacuation directive has not been issued who, nevertheless, choose to evacuate
, spontaneously. People who have been asked to evacuate may be delayed in leaving the area at risk due to the presence of voluntary evacuees on evacuation routes.
The ETE for Pilgrim Station addressed the issue of voluntary evacuees in the manner shown in Figure 9-1. Within the annular ring defined by the furthest extent of the evacuation directive, 50 percent of those people in subareas not advised to evacuate will do so. In the annular ring beginning at the furthest extent of the evacuation directive, 25 percent of the people will evacuate spontaneously.
Discussion of ETE A total of 220 cases have been analyzed --
each case l represents a possible evacuation protective action:
o If an accident escalates beyond the Alert stage, and it is determined that evacuation is advisable, the protective action will specify the region to be evacuated. There are a total of 22 regions. Associated with each region are one or more Subarea (See Table 9-7); the communities within each subarea are listed in Table 9-3.
o The protective action could occur within the context of any one of 10 evacuation scenarios; these are defined in Table 9-1.
These data are presented in a concise tabular format in Tables 9-4 through 9-9. Each entry in these tables is the value of ETE for the indicated circumstances (i.e. Scenario), protective action (i .e. Region directed to evacuate) , and radius of the circular area centered at Pilgrim Station. For example, it is estimated that the l
i entire population within 5 miles of Pilgrim Station can evacuate that circular area [of 5-mile radius centered at the Station) within 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> and 35 minutes, under Scenario 1 conditions, when the entire populace within the EPZ (Region 22) is directed to evacuate (see Table 9-5).
The use of these tables is best illustrated through the medium of illustrative examples.
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j 9-11 Rev. 5
O 10 Mile O -
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Area to be Evacuated Voluntary Evacuation up to 50%
of Population Voluntary Evacuation up to 25%
of Population Figure 9-1. Voluntary Evacuation Rates 9-12 Rev. 5
[] Examole 1
(.)
Consider an accident situation on a summer weekend day (Scenario 1). Based on meteorological and on-site data, a release is projected while wind direction is from the west. The protective action is to evacuate Region 1 (see Table 9-2).
In arriving at this decision, the ETE for evacuating the two-mile area, for Region 1 and Scenario 1, is referenced in Table 9-4 and is found to be 3:35. (Table 9-8 yields the same value). ,
This ETE is referenced to the issuance of the directive to evacuate l which, in turn, is assumed to follow the initiation of notification by 10 minutes.
For this case, Table 9-6 yields an ETE of 4:00 for evacuating the populace from within Region 1, to points further than 10 miles from Pilgrim Station. Thus, it takes about 25 minutes to travel 1 the distance of about 8 miles.
Since only the area within 2 miles of Pilgrim Station has been t judged to be subject to potential exposure to radiation under the conditions of this example (i.e. only Region 1 is evacuated) the additional time to clear the 10-mile area is somewhat of academic interest. That is, travelers who are outside the 2-mile areas are not subject to potential exposure to radiation. Note that the b population clearing the 10-mile area is assumed to include 25 percent of the population in the area outside Region 1,*but inside ,
the EPZ. This 25 percent represents those who are assumed to i spontaneously evacuate contrary to EBS messages. j Examole 2 Consider an accident situation on a dry, mid-week day in late Autumn (Scenario 5) in early afternoon. A release is projected which will travel to the southwest. The protective action is to evacuate Region 12 (see Table 9-2).
In arriving at this decision, the ETE for evacuating Region 12 in Scenario 5 is referenced in Table 9-7 (or Table 9-8) and is found to be 5:15. The ETE for areas closer to the Station are (from Tables 9-4 through 9-7).
Distance Imiles) from Pilarim Station ETE 2 4:25 5 4:45 3 10 5:15 '
EPZ Boundary 5:15 n It would appear that it takes zero time to travel from 10 V) t miles to the EPZ boundary, a distance of 3 miles. This apparent anomaly reflects the interpolation procedures used to obtain these 9-13 Rev. 5 l
I ETE, and the subsequent rounding to the nearest 5 minutes. As a result, our tabulation of ETE does not distinguish small differences of a few minutes needed to travel the distance of several miles. Understand that towards the conclusion of the evacuation, the speed of vehicles remaining in the EPZ are not
, constrained by the presence of other vehicles. Evacuees who begin their trips late in the process may be able to complete their evacuation at free flow speed. Hence, less than five minutes would be required to travel the 3 miles cited.
As discussed earlier, a Plannino Basis was adopted for calculating the ETE. It is important to explore the effects, on ETE, of variations about this basis. Appendix Q presents the results of a series of ETE sensitivity studies.
Patterns of Traffic Concestion durino Evacuation (Recion 22, Scenario 1)
Figures 9-2a) through 9-2c) illustrate the patterns of traf fic congestion at 1, 2, and 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> of after the evacuation directive is issued. Scenario 1, Region 22, the case when the entire EPZ is directed to evacuate on a summer weekend day at the time when the l beach area population is at capacity is used.
,_ Traffic congestion, as the term is used here, is defined as Level of Service F. These terms are defined in the 1994 Highway Capacity Manual, as follows: -
o Level-of-service F is used to define' forced or breakdown flow. This condition exists wherever the amount of traf fic approaching a point exceeds the amount which can traverse the point. Queues form behind such locations. Operations within the queue are characterited by stop-and-go waves, and they are extremely unstable. Vehicles may progress at reasonable speeds for several hundred feet or more, then be required to stop in a cyclic fashion. Level-of-Service j F is used to describe the operating conditions within the queue, as well as the point of the breakdown. It should be noted, however, that in many cases operating conditions of vehicles or pedestrians discharged from the queue may be quite good. Nevertheless, it is the point at which arrival flow exceeds discharge flow which causes the queue to form, and level-of-service F is an appropriate designation for such points.
This definition is general and conceptual in nature, and applies primarily to uninterrupted flow. Levels of service for interrupted flow f actlities vary widely in terms of both the user's perception of service quality and the operational variables used to
. describe them.
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y [ , .IleaclI52 irk /
,d as r 7 k 1 riomet lleights IbC61e A j l hut! Corrier fjl d p j N .
f a g))g u'th Cedar I'orld il shes . / Carver
<f
~ ,I /
""p' I
l Ibbs Grove: Maxim Corner
/ [/W ,\
f #%==TI g Vallersville / g Ea t , 'IIcigiits,1 Ilarlows'
/
j. Landing (
$11 leber h orner I / O p4
- lisvillt '
,/
S th~Mi diebOo l 2\wl
/ 'I $ 'ameloc IIcights l h 58 N Ce'darville Landing
' Cedarville I /*
D o [3b I ff, f j;gg Sagamore liighlands - Sagam re lleach l fbIdU*I"d8 "I // Whit 'Isisnd Shor( I llisbee Corner hp Tihonst ,, Q)( llo{'urned'aiel d h N DoSiitas l C1 er N 'I y Waterville [ id ich orners Old tir liouse l'inchbrs : , g. fd ^ Q
)cheste s Its n -QabIes #"
e iw3 octonneu.pping /[*v /g %kMon{ ment Ileach j. . L' fnk Figure 9-2C: Trafric Congestion Datterns for b Region 22 Scenario 1 at 3-Hours isfter the Evacuation Directive 9-17 Iu:
r l l .p All highway " links" which experience Level of Service F are ld' delineated in the Figures by a thick dark line; all others are lightly indicated. Beaches were ordered closed at the Alert Level, or 25 minutes I earlier than the issuance of the Evacuation Directive. By 0:35 after the Evacuation Directive congestion is present on roads l departing most beaches, tourist sites and parks. l Peak traffic congestion is present between one and two hours after the Evacuation Directive is issued. By 2:35 levels of congestion at some locations have begun to dissipate, most notably in Carver and Plymouth. Northbound Route 3 shows congestion north of Route 44. Congestion on roads leading from the Whitehorse Beach area have eased, although Route 3A is still heavily utilized. By 3:35 most of the congestion in western Plymouth,. Kingston , and Duxbury has cleared. There remains some local congestion in l downtown Plymouth. However, by 4:05 this local congestion has effectively cleared. By 4:05 most of the remaining congestion is at the periphery of the EPZ, with some congestion along northbound Route 3. By 5:05 the area has been cleared.
/ Patterns of Traffic Concestion durina Evacuation (Reaion 22,
( . Scenario 5) - l Figures 9-3a) through 9-3c) illustrate the patterns of traf fic congestion at 1, 2, and 3 hours of after the evacuation directive is issued. Scenario 5, Region 22, the case when the entire EPZ is directed to evacuate during the off-season, midweek, midday period. As before, highway " links" exhibiting Level of Service F are delineated by a thick, dark line. The characteristics of Scenario 5 are: peak employment in the EPZ. and 25 percent of peak ::urists with no beach area transients. As a consequence, congestion which is apparent at beach areas (Marshfield, Duxbury, Manomet Area) in Scenario 1 (see Figures 9-2a,b) is not present in Scenario 5. Patterns of congestion associated with the general population and employees are apparent in Scenario 5. By 2 hours after the Evacuation Directive congestion has peaked in Plymouth and Carver. Route 3 is congested northbound through Duxbury. Note that tourists and beach goers are able to respond to an Evacuation Directive faster than the general population (see Section 4). Therefore, the onset cf congesticn :ccurs earlier in Scenario 1 than in Scenario 5. O l 9-18 Rev. 5 l l l
i ter[ gh j ~ Ficldston I i39 Ocean Illuff . (M[ Nonh o'kp - 4 Ilrant Rock I g \ ^%Eas m e L/- If I "#0 ' e' 'o $b > b l,P>i"1*cm'4s((Oyffu c klaTd ar ) ~- g : llL
" ./
g I r ; ce O nowledge C(oger cap < cas say (fl
'k ,IU in r j u'lli D11$ bury
/
- e. iramah .:
fr ' Standish M-
==b=g;jpg :
- j; il Irlifhx x Rofky Nook I" k p(
Ilarrubs rdage;-. g.-
, ut 'l) u t li "#""""" #"#-
, on irn ,^
.j Itonv 4/.
d i gf. nomet lleights /-
- arver // .omet -/-
, .j faulle , orner h P'ond /_
} g
! * #8
] Manomet Ileach -
.irver . / x .
/
(Ji}"s Grove
~
xim , ner /d h N' ~ . 'allersville -
,/ 4 -/ - -
s ? // ] - Ea t ., lleiglits illarlows'L'anding? Allissilk "ei leberry orner , g ;g Ce'darville Landing
/' g < Cedarvil j Sagamore flighlands dllowlands f
"" [ Whit Isl[nd Sifo - Sagamore lleach Tihone/'t Ilo{urnedale\ h>
I'isbee Corner N o I s C'orne [ , Wat ville -
/ uiwich O
' Pinch q"
A I'tuzza ,
""r<'
our le O :
>ch6te 3S I ' ' Ea Sandvici >\ "
Gra alilec in - e,i
>nciamewrrra on n ent Ileach ' ny, O
Figure 9-3A: Traffic Congestien Patterns for Region 22 Scenario 5 at 1-Hour After the Evacuation Directive 9-14 m . -
e$ter }gh I
'T 6
h J
.F6taE1 in Fieldston Ocean Blulf E rth br'ok ,
Brant Rock;. I i nJs ' Pern i bu
-lial ' '
Q and a I Ke \28 . Of/Kn ledge ger uth D.nbur _ j ilve e- i a 5 f-tdridish) K { 4 s d - Rocky Nook k-. 11al ' fax "E# 11 ubs er - f/
/ d
,g uih##" 8##
ly _ on l . M': g Bea,c'lidark' lle O_f lliNI Manomet 11 eights '- 7/ f arvpr f jC{h luNmet S #Soulth P' nd uti o o ,
,/ Churchill Landing Ceitar B shes). -
- g. anomet Beach Garver
[ .n-
.M xim ner ,
.;gg, j k I sGr r
a ( 3/ ~ lleigt ts larl.owsIanding] ut t ku leber .,orner " [.lliSVijk SouttiMid' dleb8ro Nameloc lleights. [ fCedar1 i r 11,11 Yands 110wlands b $10 nt ihonet fWhit Isla x k o a , er ! %
"v ag ore Wa vi '
tat:0 Pinel teach 4*' ' 5 prrjers g
;- .. p lourne irton Shores
( 0 F.ast:
- chMtc ja Il al es #""
., ~ _ . . . Mon {nlent Ileach e'@s -
M O Figure 9-3B: Traffic Congestion Patterns for Region 22 Scenario 5 at 2-Hours Isfter the Evacuation Directive Rev. 5
e Nter[ 11 j tver 7 Sta Fieldston c North br'ok i3, Ocean Illuff ~ j liratit Rock
' Ea_ r
?i0es e% xbu / Green h liarbor ..
ke orth ' I I old i Ring Ca,jn Ir
\ 27 " .
E' g ec nowifdgelo er c,p, coasq d; ig SNuth Duxbury f
. nse /
ram
- ' Fo S,tandisti if::
IN 7 II,
- Rock'y. Nook I llatifax Ilarrub r rdage .. 4
.f
* -/J lymouth"
~
# j.
>ly .on /?
lleafbf / Edd v intonu e A Manomet lleights . I'
\
VCf
/-
I i met li j P b)utte , Corner af)g h l'ondCchar B hurchill shes)Landing A Manomet 11each jf Caner ,) U \ jt wn M im Corner //\ / p ( 9 'allersville /' ( bbs Grove f g// \ i /-
- i E t lleidit llarlows Landing -
C' A> lisvill Ilu eberr Corn
'( n}el , llei{,1its SoutifMid' 3 dlebo,,ro } {"N , ding .
/Cedarvil Sagamore llighlands -
JJ / l j Sagamore lleach [ IO*I3"d8 'l mt llisbe Co ner kh 9'ihone p+
/ yf g g y8 h4 E Bo neda '
gamore Waldvillejg/ "ICII gorners )ld uaker Meetinghouse
? g
$"" Shores tochste in$ga"~ gray ),f$s C,1 w Delene% rl"& P '~
/
a Mon {nlent lleach "YN3 '-
- [ ~%
l p Figure 9-3C: Traffic Congention Patternn for ( Region 22 Scenario 5 at 3-Hours Afrer the Evacuat. ion Directive hv . E
the area is cleared of evacuees by 5:15. Congestion effectively clears A It is possible to identify the extent to affects evacuation time by comparing Scenarios 1 and 5:which congestion l Elapsed Time to Evacuaticn Start of Last Time Vehicle '"rio Estimate Region 22, Scenario 1 3:30 5:05 Region 22, Scenario 5 4:10 l 5:15 Note that about 1.5 hours elapses between the time the last vehicle in Scenario the EPZ. 1 begins its trip and the time the last vehicle leaves i If no congestion were present, this vehicle would require about 20 minutes (12 miles at 40 mph) to traverse the EPZ. The last vehicle in Scenario 5 requires just 45 minutes to complete its trip. Consequently, the extent and intensity of congestion present Scenario 5, 1 causes the ETE to increase by some 90 minutes. in Scenario In l the start of the last of traffic congestion has dissipated. evacuation trip occurs af ter most Evacuation Rates l Traffic flow is a continuous process, as implied by Figures ! 9-1 and 9 .3 . Another format for displaying the dynamics of the evacuation procedure is depicted in Figures 9-4a through 9-4j. These plots indicate the rate at which traffic flows out of the indicated areas(Region the entire EPZ for each 1).Scenario associated with the evacuation of As indicated in these Figures,
" tail" to these distributions. Vehiclesthere is typically a long evacuate an area slowly at the beginning, different rates,as people respond to the directive to evacuate at then builds rapidly 'Vhen the system becomes congested, traf fic flows at(slopes of curves increase).
[near) capacity rates until some evacuation routes have cleared. clear, the rate of egress slows since many vehicles have As more routes left the EPZ. Towards already the end of the process, one or two evacuation routes service the remaining demand. This decline in aggregate flow rate, with time, characterited by these is curves gradually becoming horizontal. Ideally, it would be desirable to fully saturate all evacuation routes so that all wi'.1 service traffic near capacity levels and all will clear at tne same time. For this ideal situation, all ! curves would remain steep until the end -- i evacuation tiro. thus minimizing
- n the real world, this ideal is generally !
unattainable. Proper clannino, however, l f
\
~
can make an important difference in the utilltation of existing highway capacity and in 9-22 Rev. 5 l
reducing evacuation time to a practical minimum. Summarv of' Evacuation Time Analysis A summary of' evacuation times is presented in Tables 9-10, in l the format recommended in Appendix 4 of NUREG 0654. The analyses ) ' of Confirmation Time and of the ETE for Special Population segments
,are presented in Sections 11 and 12, respectively.
The estimates of Permanent Resident and Vehicle. Population are those of Table 2-l'. These town estimates were aggregated to form Subarea estimates ~ and then Region estimates The transient population includes all transients -- tourists, beach area day-trippers and employees who live outside the EPZ. These estimates were presented in Section 2. l Evacuation capacity from each area was ascertained by I aggregating the highway capacities of all outward-bound roads which i pierce the area's outer boundary. The capacities given represent l clear weather conditions. These capacities are reduced by 20 l percent for rain and 25 percent for snow. It is assumed that all . roads are passable and that the recommended traf fic control tactics are in effect (see Appendix I). l . l l l. l l l l i 9-23 Rev. 5
t') V Figure 9-4a: Evacuation Time Estimates Region 22, Scenario 1 70.000 , g l 2 Miles 5 Miles 10-Miles EPZ Bdry 4 , , , ,, . . .. .... c ,.,.-- N 50.000 , 2 , o - g a . ' 40,000 ,'
.s ,' .
a < . e 30.000 '
.J ,'.
m s
- e '.'
] 20,000 , ,'s
.c . .
y -
/.' ,.*
> ,l* ^ , =*
10,000 . - r ..*,, J' _ r .' '- (30) 0 30 60 90 120 160 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 390 420 l Elapsed Time (Mins.) From Evacuation Directive !
)
J - 1 Figure 9-4b: Evacuation Time Estimates Region 22, Scenario 2 70.000 g 2 Miles 5 Miles 10 Miles EPZ Bdry 4 ,,,,,, !
=0 ,
.o. *
, ~
N 50 000 ,--
.2 s'
'O ," -
C ,' 40.000 ,- r~l -- - C a' '
'5 ,#
n , - o 30.000 ,' , J ' m - '. y < - o 20.000 e'
~} ,'.' ,,..
e .'
> s. '. . ..*
*C 000 ,
,,f* , . ' ' . - ,,,.
~
n ' 0 (30) 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 :70 300 330 360 390 420 Elapsed Time (Mins.) From Evacuation Directive 9-24 Rev. 5
Figure 9-4c: Evacuation Time Estimates Qv Region 22, Scenario 3 ) 70,000 to 8 j 2 Males 5+ Miles 10 Miles EPZ Bory 4 60.000 ! --** V .T - 2 '
$ 50,000 _" _
E cn 40,000 .'
.E ,'.-
- m '
/
i G 30,000 d s ', * . m ! . 20.000 . E s. . O s.-' ..*
> s.
10.000 ,, ,. r
- 0 (30) 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 390 420 Elapsed Time (Mins.) From Evacuation Directive Figure 9-4d: Evacuation Time Estimates Region 22, Scenario 4 70.000 m
e 2 Miles 5-Miles 10-Miles EPZ Bory i
< eo oo, . .. . .-. _...
V ,"
,s'
$ 50.000 '
g ,- E ,- .. ! Cn 40 000 ," , C ,' .' 5 a' .' n 0 30.000
* .' 1 I .J ,# ,
- v. # .~
o ,'.-
-o 20,000 -
- a E
o s-s. s..
...=... '*....
$0 000 '
f*
... ~
,s..
O (30) 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 390 420 b '& Elapsed Time (Mins.) From Evacuation Directive I 9-25 Rev. 5
e Figure 9-4e: Evacuation Time Estimates Region 22, Scenario 5 70.000 g 2 Miles 5 Mdes 10-Mdes EPZ Bcry
" 60.000
'C V
? ---
g 50.000 g m 3 , c ,- .. -
~, 40.000 -
.E - .'
$ 30.000 ,'
a ,- . I e e -
~ 20.000 '~
f ,.- ........ 10,000 ,'- * (
,.'.~
,e-(30) 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 390 420 Elapsed Time (Mins.) From Evacuation Directive O
V . Figure 9-4f: Evacuation Time Estimates # Region 22, Scenario 6 70.000 g 2-Miles 5 Mdes 10-Miles EPZ Bdry
* * ** **** ~~~*
y 60.000 V l E ~~~ l m 50.000 '
.2 ,'
l
~ '
- g 40.000 ,.'
.E -
$ 30.000 a
,c' *
,a ,
w , o ,' .
] 20.000 ,, .c .
e ,:-
*0.000 c- ..
r ..- a t;. -
,r' (30) 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 2*0 300 330 360 390 420 j Elapsed Time (Mins.) From Evacuation Directive 9-26 Rev. 5
O Figure 9-4g: Evacuation Time Estimates Region 22, Scenario 7 70.000 , j 2-Miles 5 Mdes 10 Mdes EPZ Bdry V _ 3 l m o 60.000 f' ,-
~
c .- '... - - -* g 40.000 , c ,- ..- N
- e 30.000 .'
- J ,' .
a e
,e
. ,.' l "5 20.000 ,'
.c , , - ........
o ,. 10.000
* ,. r -
- _g. f. 9*
(30) 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 390 420 Elapsed Time (Mins.) From Evacuation Directive t , Figure 9-4h: Evacuation Time Estimates Region 22, Scenario 8 70.000 g l 2 Mdes 5-Mdes 10-Miles EPZ Bdry i 4 ,,,, , V N M 50.000 2 V c m 40.000 ,-
$ 30.000 ,-- -
a . .- o - s' *
,] 20.000 ,2 ,
.c ,'.-
> , f. - ...... ....
' '!.0 00 ,,-
r ... f. r..
>=
(30) 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 390 420 f Elapsed Time (Mins.) From Evacuation Directive 9-27 Rev. 5
l l Figure 9-41: Evacuation Time Estimates
- Region 22, Scenario 9 I
i 70.000 I l 5 l 8 , 2-Mdes 5-Miles 10 Mdes EPZ Bary 1
, , i . . ....
4 j t l S 1 m 50.000
.9 '
t -
=
C . p 40.000 *,, ..-- w= C '
'p" * .....
m ,- ,.
- o 30.000 " 1 I
,,,3 i l @ ,'
- o a l
.u 20.000 Q ,'+
10.000 (*
~
,r ,.. -
f f.. , 0 1 (30) 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 390 420 Elapsed Time (Mins.) From Evacuation Directive Figure 9-4j: Evacuation Time Estimates Region 22, Scenario 10 70.000 g i 2-Miles 5 Miles 10-Mdes EPZ Bary ' .o
.o.
G $0.000
.o T
C 40,000 '~~~
, v --
.c .- ,
$ 30.000 ,-
a ,- . m , ' . o ,' -
-u 20.000 ,#. -
.C ,' .
o ,a. y ,:' ,,,........ ...... 10.000 i V e,e*.. , ,.
- _ ,, r. :' -
O (30) 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 ?3 300 330 360 390 420 [ Elapsed Time (Mins.) From Evacuation Directive l 9-28 Rev. 5
q It is important to stress that these estimates of available l Q capacity may overstate the actual accessible capacity. Specifically, network topological features may restrict access to , ) l all outbound roads. For example, the available capacity of Route I 3 southbound is approximately 3,128 vehicles per hour. However,
' southbound flow rates are controlled by the capacity of the j Sagamore Rotary and Cranberry Highway estimated at 2,880 vehicles !
per hour. Hence the available capacity of Route 3 is not accessible. Although Tables 9-10 present estimates of available I capacity, the evacuation time estimates are based upon explicit utilization of accessible capacities. The estimated notification, preparation and response (i.e. trip-generation) times which are listed correspond to the 100th percentile of the indicated population. That is, these are the times associated with the completion of the indicated process. The process itself (i.e. notification, preparation to evacuate, and departing on the evacuation trip) is best represented as a continuous distribution (see Figure 4-2) which graphically depicts the continuous nature of the process. I 1 The Evacuation Time Estimates (ETE) are those presented in Table 9-8. In Tables 9-10, the population figures (first 4 columns) 9-2); are those associated with the indicated Recions (see Table , the capacities and ETE figures are for the indicated ! A distances: 2,5,10 miles from the Pilgrim Station. Q . O 9-29 Rev. 5
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k 10. EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES (ETE) FOR TRANSIT OPERATIONS This section details the analyses applied to obtain evacuation time estimates for persons who evacuate on transit vehicles. The
/ procedure is:
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- 1. Residents and transients with no vehicles available
- 2. Special facilities: schools, health-support, child-care, other
- 3. Private citizens (i.e. those not in health-support facilities) who have special medical needs and cannot drive themselves.
fg Each of these groups will be considered in turn. Residents and Transients With No Vehicles Available The demand estimates for these three groups were developed using a number of techniques. Surveys of schools and special facilities yielded demand data for item 2. A "Special Needs Survey2 " to determine the number of people who need rides was conducted by Boston Edison to develop estimates of items 1 and 3. The "Special Needs Survey" yielded the following data: Pecole Who Need Rides Town Transit-deoendents Plymouth 1336 Kingston 435 Carver 0 Duxbury 195 Marshfield 0 1966 The "Special Needs Survey" was used as one source of information concerning the transportation needs of the s general population. It was not used to estimate the 3 needs of special (e.g. handicapped or home-bound) populations. 10-1 Rev. 5
7
'I ha telephone survey conducted O,
in Autumn of Appendices F and G) acquired a data base which can be used to 1986 (see estimate.the population group of item 1. This group is divided into two subgroups: o Those persons who belong to households which do not have a vehicle available. (This information corresponds to the transit-dependents identified in the special needs survey. ) o Those persons who belong to households which normally do have at least one vehicle available, but would not have a vehicle available at the time the evacuation is directed. The persons belonging to the latter subgroup are in households where the vehicle (s) have been driven away from home for commuting purposes. Thece vehicles would not be available for evacuation if the driverts) of the vehicle (s) refuse to re: urn home to gather the household members. Other factors include the possibilities that the vehicle is non-functioning or that the c mmuter is willing, but unable, to return home. Tables 10-1 through 10-4, obtained frem the telephone survey results, provide the empirical basis for quantifying those two suegroups. These data were then multiplied by the sample factor (i.e. ratio of total households within the EPZ, to the number of (( randomly selected households sampled) to obtain the data for each community within the EPZ. Table 10-5 presents the summary of this ! i data! There are several factors which influence the accuracy of these estimates of persons with no vehicle available in Table 10-5 :
- 1. These estimates include school children. On school days, separate transportation is provided for the children in school and the actual need for :ransi: is thereby less than the given estimates.
- 2. These estimates do not take into account the effects of ride-sharing with f amily, friends and neighbors who do have vehicles available. To the extent that ride-sharing is undertaken. :he actual need f:r transi is less than the gicen estimates.
- 3. These estimates do take ;nto acccunt the prospect that vehicles may not be availaole due to malfunction.
I i f3 4 G! 1C-2 Rev. 5
(N Table 10-1. Number of Cars per Household by Household Size Plymouth Number of Cars per Household Pers. 0 1 2 3 4 Total per H.H. 1 6 31 4 1 0 42 2 1 43 62 3 2 111 3 0 11 39 17 3 70 4 0 5 29 8 1 43 5 1 9 38 9 5 62 6 0 3 18 1 3 25 7 0 1 5 0 4 10 8 0 1 0 1 1 3 9 0 0 1 0 0 1 , 10 0 0 0 0 1 1 l
)
Total 8 104 196 40 20 368 l l Mean 1.6 2.4 3.6 3.7 5.3 3.3 Pers. per H.H. l O 10-3 Rev. 5
(
)
i I Table 10-2 Number of Cars per Household by Household Size Kinoston I Number of Cars per Household ' Pers. 0 1 2 3 4 Total per H.H. 1 1 6 0 0 0 7 2 0 7 14 2 1 24 3 0 2 6 1 0 9 4 0 1 9 5 0 15 5 0 3 3 5 2 13 6 0 0 4 1 0 5 7 0 0 0 0 1 1 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 10 0 , 0 0 0 0 0 Total 1 19 36 14 4 74 Mean 1.0 2.4 3.4 4.1 4.8 3.3 Pers. per H.H. l O 10-4 Rev. 5
;- 1 J
Table 10-3. Number of Cars per Household by Household si::e O Carver Number of Cars per Household Pers. 0 1 2 3 4 per Total H.H. 1 0 0 I 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 8 5 0 0 13 3 0 1 4 3 0 8 4 0 0 8 1 0 9 5 0 0 4 2 1 7 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 y 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total- 0 9 21 6 1 37 Mean- - 2.1 3.5 3.8 5.0 Pers, 3.3 per H.H. O 10-5 Rev. 5 l L.
r; 1 1 i 4
, Table 10-4. Number' of Cars per Household by Household Si::e '
( Duxbury 1 1 l Number of Cars per Household Pers. 0 1 2 3 4 Total per H.H. 1 0 13 4 0 0 17 l 2 0 3 19 2 3 28 s V ;
.= . . .- -D 4 0 4 15 2 2 23 l 5 0 0 9 5 1 '
'5 1
6 0 0 4 3 0 7 7 0 0 1 0 1 2 , 8 0 0 1 0 1 2 1 l b 0 0 0 1 0 1 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 < otal 0 23 68 20 9 120
;:ean -
1.9 3.4 4.2 4.1 3.3 i Pers. I cer l .~..H. l l l l l l
\8 l
10-s Rev. 5
)
Table 10-5. Estimates of Ambulatory Persons Requiring Transit Who Do Not Reside in Special Facilities i Persons in Households with tomnunity Sample No. Vehs Non- One, Non Total Factor Available Returnees (1) Functioning Persons Vehicle (2) Plymouth 43.22 554 854 114 1565 Kingston 46.05 46 191 23 306 tarver 52.98 0 109 11 173 Ouxbury 37.29 ; 251 18 306 Marshfield (3) 38 32 10 , 77 Totals 2426 Notes: (1) No information concerning the number of people who
- q - would need transportation in the event a commuter could not return home in a timely fashion was
~
. available. However, based upon results of a KLD '
{ survey performed within the Seabrook EPZ, a factor of l.7- percent of population was used. It should be noted that this factor was' developed on the basis of a question dealing with presumed behavior during an emergency. (2) Based on telephone surveys with fleet operators, it is estimated that a car is non-functioning approximately 4 days per year, on average. This is equivalent to 1_.1 percent of the time. Thus, the number of vehicles that are non-functioning, that belong to households with only one car normally available is computed as Proportion of Households with One Car X Total Number of Households X 0.011. For example, for Plymouth, (104/368) (50262/3.31) (0.011) = 47 X 2.4 = 114; where, avg. household size is 3.31 persons and there are 2.4 persons per household with one vehicle. (3; KLD Telephone Survey values were not available for Marshfield. Population estimates presented are taken from Boston Edison's Special Needs Survey. l 10-7 Rev. 5
, 4. Since the number of surveyed persons in each town who require transit is small relative to the total sample, we are contending with a problem of small sample size when the data is considered at the community level. That is, the confidence interval associated with these estimates is apt
,. to be large. There is thus a statistical uncertainty associated with these estimates ;as there is with any estimates obtained using statisttcal procedures) which should be prudently considered.
)
It is possible to quantify these factors in a conservative manner, thus insuring that adequate transit resources will be available:
- 1. A reduction in estimated demand due to school children being evacuated by bus is justified only if the accident occurs during a school day. Since school is in session 130 days in a year, for about 7 hours, the probability cf an accident occurring when school is in session is approximately 180 x 7 365 x 24 = 0.144 or 14.4 percent.
Consequently, since children will not be in school over 85 percent of the time, it is prudent to assume that all .
~
school children of transit-dependent families will be at home and will require transit.
- 2. Ride-sharing does have a pronounced impact on estimating the need for transit. For example, nearly 80 percent of those who evacuated from Mississauga;, Ontario and who did not use their own cars, shared rides with neighbors and friends. Other documents also report that approximately 70 percent of transit-dependent perstns would evacuate via ride-sharing.
We will adept a lower figure cf 5: percent to calculate the number of transit-dependent perstns .;ho will ride-share. The remaining 50 percent cl~ .e e d transit vehicles in order to evacuate. l l 1 i l l 2 "The $ ssissauga Evacuaticn - Final Report to the Ontario Ministry of the Solicitor General :nstitute for ( Environmental Studies, Univers:.ty :f Toronto, ~une 1951 10-8 Rev 5 l l I
1 1 { O 3. It is possible to calculate the confidence interval for a V stated level of confidence, a, by applying the binomial l distribution. Specifically, the following expression applies:
. pzd= {(r+c) [(r+c); - (n+c) r;/n]: 2 } / (n+c) i 1
where I l l i l p= Proportion of sampled number of households that i have no vehicles available l i d= Extent of confidence interval at level, a, in l ) percent n= Sample site, households r= np, sample response indicating the number of persons, in the sample, who require transportation assistance c= % Z 2 .,2, obtained from tables. Ref: Crow, E.L., Davis, F.A. and Maxfield, M.W., Statistics Manual, Dover Publications Inc. , New York,1960. , We will select a = 80 percent. From tables, the corresponding value of c is 0.822. This means: There is an 80 percent probability that the true proportion, p, of the underlying population from which the sample was drawn, lies between p-d/2 and p+d/2. This is equivalent to stating that there is a 90 percent probability that the true value of p does not exceed p+d/2. Table 10-6 lists the results. Column 1 is the sample site, n, in each community. The sample responses, r, the number of persons who do not have a vehicle available, are listed in column 2. The proportion, p, the quotient of column 2 by 1. appears in column 3. Column 4 contains the calculated values of (p+d/2). The next column, 5, contains the number of persons within each community who require transportation assistance; these estimates have only a 10 percent probability of actually being exceeded. The calculation to obtain these estimates are outlined below: l l A. For communities where p>0, this estimate of persons needing assistance is calculated as: q E: (p+d/2)/p V where E is in the last column of Table 10-5. 10-9 Rev. 5
O Table 10-6. Calculated Number of Persons Requiring Transit (1) (2) (3) .45 (5) (6)- No. of Residents Comusunity n r-up p p+d/2 No Car Requiring Available Transit Plymouth 368 13 0.035 3.;5; 2236 1118 Kingston- 74 1 0.014 0.;2{ 786 393 tarver- 37 0 0.000 0.:44 311 155 tuxbury 120 0 0.000
._4 407 204 Marshfield - - - -
"08 54 599 14 0.0233 0.;33 2 8 t.9 1924 J
Note: (1) For Carver and Duxbury, the computed valve of (P+d/2) s was applied to the total number of households in the ;
; town and then multiplied by the number of~ persons in households with no cars (1.6 persons). The resultant value was added to the last column of table 10-5.
For Carver: .044 (6411/3.27) '_ . 6 + 173 = 311. For Duxbury: .014 (14768/3.3) 1.5 - 306 = 406. (2) For Mar:shfield, we multiplied the number in the last column of Table 10-5, by the ratio 0.033/0.0233. 10 ~ 0_ Rev. 5
F l l /') i V E (o+d/2) P where E T is in the last column of Table 10-5. l l *
, B. For Marshfield where Telephone Survey results were not i available, then estimate of persons needing assistance is calculated as:
E,. (o+d/2) p agg where Er is obtained from the Special Needs Survey and presented in Table 10-5 and [...],;,is the aggregate values of column 4/ column 3 in Table 10-6. Column 6 contains the estimates of people requiring transportation assistance and who do not share a ride with friends or neighbors. These persons must be provided with transit. Bus Transit Concept of Operations Transit operations in support of an evacuation of the area surrounding Pilgrim Station are designed to be a mix of two O
'V approaches. First, a number of fixed, bus pickup points will be l
identified. These points, located in the more densely populated " areas of the EPZ, will be locations within walking distance where people may find the required transit resources. Secondly, for areas l of the EPZ which are not as densely populated, buses will traverse l l fixed routes, stopping on demand to pick up passengers. l In support of these operations a number of bus staging I areas / transfer points will be established at the periphery of the EPZ. At these locations buses will be designated one of two I categories: l o Pickuo Point Buses - After receiving instructions, maps, i and dosimetry at 'cus staging areas, these buses will proceed to the assigned fixed bus pickup point. There, they wait for passengers to board, and, on schedule, or when full, return to the staging area and then proceed directly to Reception Centers. l 1 o Route Buses - After receiving instructions, maps, and dosimetry at bus staging areas, these buses will traverse assigned rcutes in accordance with a predefined schedule. Individual bus routes will be traversed several times. At i the conclusion of the traverse, buses will return to the staging area and then depart for Reception Centers. \ v) 10-11 Rev. 5 l
4 Appendix 0 contains additional details of the Transit Operations Plan including proposed pickup points, and route maps and descriptions. bus staging area locations, bus Table 10-7 presents the transit requirements communities, based on the estimates of Table 10-6, andfor on the all number of bus staging areas. The number of persons serviced by each by bus route and pickup point within a community may be estimated dividing the total number of transit-dependent persons by the number of routes and pickup points. This estimate, however, assumes that people are uniformly distributed over a community, by area -- an assumption which will overestimate the actual demand for some the areas andneed overriding underestimate the actual is to provide transitdemand for others. Since it, it service for all who need demand is necessary to assign a factor of safety to the estimated for transit to account for a non-uniform spatial (i.e. area-specific) estimates distribution of population. Thus , all area-specific of transi demand will be increased by 20 percent . (This is equivalent percent.) to increasing the total es:: mated demand by 20 The number conservative of bus trips needed per route is based cn the premise that the average hus occupancy completion of each trip will not exceed 2: persons. This atfigure the compares with an actual seated capacity of 40 children. adults or 60 For example, if the passengers are two-thirds adults and one-third 47 persons. children, then the bus capacity .s (2/3) 40 +-(1/3) 60 = 1 On this basis, we have assu~.ed that bus trips, at most, will 64 percent. be running at an average load factor of (30/47) x 100 = Thus, even if the actual demand for service at a bus staging area exceeds the estimates in colu~.n 3 of Table 10-7 by 5-percent, that demand can still be accommodated by the available seating capacity. Any additional demand standing passengers or by allocating additi:nal buses.can be accommodated by As can be seen in Table 10 . a total :f 53 buses is required to provide suffic:ent capacity to trans;;r: transit-dependent people within an acceptable time frame. Estimates of evacuation times factors: for this population group are predicated on a number of
- 1. 'c:here will :hese buses originate?
- 2. How long .:11 i: take to r.obilize cus drivers?
- 3. How long till it take to travel :: staging areas?
- 4. How long .:11 it take t:- traverse cus routes?
O 10 ^ 2 Rev. 5 t
re ( l p Table 10-7. Estimated Transit Requirements U
., (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Cogusunity People No. of Pass. Per l -Bus Total Buses l Requiring Bus Route Trips Bus Required l Tre.nsit Routes per Trips (Note 2) (Note 1) Route Plymouth 1118 8 168 6 48 51 Kingston' 393 2 236 8 16 12 l Carver 155 2 94 3 6 5 l l Duxbury 204 4 62 8 12 1 Marshfield 54 1 65 2 2 3 1924 80 83 I l Column Exclanation- Column Exclanation 1 From column 6 of Table 10-6 4 Col. 3/30 , 2 .. See Appendix 0 5 Col. 2 x Col. 4 3 1.2 x Col. 1/ Col. 2 6 1.2 x Col. 1/36, but >_ no. of routes l Notes: (1) The number of bus routes for Plymouth includes the l use of 3 bus pickup points; the number for Duxbury, i 1 bus pickup point. A portion of Plymouth (Subarea
- 6) is primarily served by one of the Carver ' routes
.and partially served - by another. A portion of Northern Plymouth (Subarea 7) is also served by one Kingston bus route.
l (2) Buses leave. staging area and return to the staging ; area. Only full buses are sent to the Reception j Centers i 1 l 1 i 10 ~_3 Rev. 5 ! p j
The information needed to address these issues may be obtained , f from letters of agreement (LOA) with bus operators. set of LOAs were obtained, a When the last survey requesting mobilization information was distributed to all transportation organizations. The analysis of results of the survey respondents allow us to make l s a reasonable estimate for transit mobilization activities. Figure 10-1 presents the geographic distribution of l transportation resources. Over 400 buses fr:m survey respondents l I are available within 30 miles of the EPZ boundary. If extrapolated to all organizations with which LOA's exist, then it is likely that there are more than a sufficient number :f buses to meet all emergency needs. i i The survey indicated that unscheduled driver mobilization i times ranged up to 3 hours. :nbound bus travel times >m ve estimated by assuming that bus speeds are 3: miles par hour under clear weather condi: ions and 23 miles per hour (a 25 percent reduction in speed) during adverse weather conditions. These estimates assume that most travel is along :wo-lane twolway rural ) roads. Mobilization times and bus travel ::mes may be combined statistically to form a distribution of the time buses arrive at staging areas on the EPZ boundary. The results of this analysis i are presented in Firre 10-2 for clear weather scenarios and Figure 10-3 for adverse weather scenarios. The figures indicate that 90 J percent of the busos will arrive at the staging areas on the EPZ i boundary by 2:45 after the start of bus mooilization in clear weather and by 3:00 after the start of bus mobilization under adverse weather :enditions. Letters :f Agreement with transportation providers reflect the estimated ability to have all vehicles arrive at schools and TSA's within 3 hours af ter the start of mobilization. The average elapsed time after the star: :f mobilization, that buses will be read to depart the bus 2: aging areas on the periphery of the EPZ is presented in Table _;-B. l Calculation of Trans;; Foute Travel Times l The calculati:n of transit route : ravel times depends l intrinsically on hcw the buses are alloca ed to the scecified ! routes in each co=un ty l l The allocation :f buses to bus routes u:hin a community will I he based on the ebfer:iye of minimiting evacuation time. This is ! equ valent to stat n; the follow:.ng: p Allocate buses to routes so that :he total time needed to evacuate trans;:-dependent persons s approximately the same l ( for all routes. 10 '.4 Rev 5 1
O l60 31.I Pc 132 25.6cf l i E O to 10 Miles m s ry + gy 1I to 20 Miles 4 .y
<Ms' gg !
g.dif ;,, .._j 21 t 30 Miles i' ((3 31 to 40 Miles
's-100 i:.
39,4cjc 13 23.99c Figure 10-1. Distance Travelled for Buses Arriving at flie EPZ Boundary O 10-15 Rev. 5
k 100 . l f ,,,,,,,......-*............... m , s 60 ._
.2 .. .!
.i - ! .. ../
j 60 - f- ,/ w .... l .- - :
-I / /
u 4 : '
% Dm.r Mobihtaen Ckar weather Irases Imr s < d
. .f...- .........
,r ! noses wie ai siacing Aren a :0
.:s f.
- --' .i I / / Data based upon LOA Sursey Results 0
/: .........~#
0 15 10 45 60 ! 90 105 120 25 150 16f .40 195 210 225 240 255 Elapsed Time (Minutesi l Figure 10-2. Bus Mobilization (Clear Weather) 1 N
^ 0 '_ 5 Rev. 5
l i l l l l i i t l l l 100 . , l s M
- _ . . _ - "/..e ,.-**a l
-c j j
- e. e l 0 60
/~'
-b ,... /
t ,!
< 40 -
Bus Dnver MoNlizauon Clear Weather Travel Time
- .........' /
g ,. ; , Buses Arrive at Stagmg Areas Y I : x0
'O
...t -
,/ Data based upon LOA Survey Results
.....~.: , ,
, 0 15 30 45 60 75 % 105 120 l _t3 1 !?9 165 180 195 210 225 240 255 270 285 300 Elapsed Time (Minutes) i 1 Figure 10-3. Bus Mobilization (Adverse Weather) ; 1 i 1 l k 10-17 Rev. 5 l l !
) l Table 10-8. Time Estimates for Supplemental Bus Evacuation Activities Time Estimates (Hrs.: Mins.) Activity *deather Tonditions l l Clear Adverse 4 50th Percentile Bus Arrives at the Staging Area 1:30 1:45 Delays Associated with 1 Access Control -
- 5 :15 !
l Distribution of Maps, 1 Dosimetry to Drivers j
- 30 :30 j i
Time Most Buses Arrive 2:15 2:30 l Times are referenced from the Site Area Emergency level, which is assumed to precede the Directive to Evacuate by 25 minutes. Supplementary buses assigned to-support a one-wave evacuation of O. schools have no delays associated with access control because these buses .are dispatched to schools prior to the establishment of access control. School bus assignments have priority over buses sent to the EPZ for other purposes. l i
)
l j l l l t . 13-12 Rev. 5 l
c Q The analysis formulation and procedure are presented below: V Let N = Total number of buses needed in a community based on an average occupancy of 36 persons. See column 6 of l l Table 10-7. l l - n = Number of bus trips along each route, r, within the community; r = 1,2, ..,R. See column 4 of Table 10-7. X, = Number of buses allocated to route, r, tr = Bus travel time, hours, on route, r. This value is determined from the IDYNEV simulation output. For those segments of the bus route which are not on evacuation routes (e.g. local streets or counterflow streets), a T.ean speed of 10 mph is assumed which takes into account time spent stopping to load passengers. presented later. A more detailed discussion. will be Tr (X )7
=
Total elapsed time to service transit-dependent evacuees along route, r, using X, buses to complete an aggregate of n trips. Hr = Bus headways on route, r. Defisitionally, T r (Xt ) = prt, + (n - (p.-1) X r - 1)H 7 for ( pr-1 )r X < n 5 prX ; pr = 1, 2, . NOTE: pr = Maximum number of trips made by a bus on Route, r. 1
-where pr = n/X. If .ot an integer, then pr = Int {n/X r+1]
Clearly, X, s n . That is, it makes no sense to assign more buses to a route than the number of trips to be completed. Also, by definition, M r = t r/X r when X < n. When X = n, we will adopt the following condition in order to provide reasonable spacing of buses: Hr = mi;. [tr /n, 0.2] O O 10-19 Rev. 5
r , 1 i l
,_ The objective is to select the X, such that I '
max ' [T, (X,) ] is minimized r subject to the condition, Sum [X,] = N r Precedure i The procedure is trial-and-error which converges rapidly if the proper care is taken.
- 1. Select the longes: route, r = r;. :
..ssign X. = n for this route. ,
- 2. Calculate pr, H r and T, (X r = n)
Set N., r = N - X =N-n '
- 3. Select the longes: remaining route. Estimate X for this Route, r, as folicws:
X. = [t /trt) r X,7,, ( 4. Calculate pr, H r and T (X ) o}_ r r j
- 5. Compare T,(X,) with T, ( X, ). If these figures are l comparable, accept the solution.
{ Else, adjust the estimate of X r, accordingly, and repeat steps 4 and 5. When completed, set Mr , = M.,r - Zr
- 6. If more routes remain to be analyzed, return to step 3. If finished, examine ::7,m.
If N r,, < 0, either request more buses for this community to keep the objective function low, :r reduce the number of buses allocated :: chose routes ;hich exhibit low values ; of T (X ) relative to other routes and redo the procedure r 7 of steps 4, 5 and i until N. ; , = :. I f - N ,, r
> 0, which is a desirable condition, there is a choice: ; Add buses to those routes tith the longest values of T (X ) , subject :o X < n, and or store these excess r 7 buses at the local transportatior center for use only to accept people fre. :he route cuses anc to transport them gw out of the EP2.
N_j' 10-20 Rev. 5 i-1 i
n l i l' l l
/~) If N., = 0, procedure is complete.
V r Examole: Kingston, N = 10, n=5 (from Table 10-7) r= 1 2
, t, = 1.33 2.08 Sten Procedure 1 Choose r = r_. = 2; Assign X: = n=5 2 P: = 5/5 = 1 H 2 = min [2.08/5, 0.2] = 02 T:(5) = 1(2.08) +
[5 - (1 - 1)5 - 1](0.2) = 2.88 N., r = 10 - 5=5 3 r=1 X = (1.33/2.:5)5 = 3.19, say 3 4 p; = int [5 / 3 _2 =2 I (
\_,
H: = 1.33/2 = :.44 ,, 1 T:(2) = 2(1.33) + [5 - (2 - 1)3 - 1](0.44) = 3.10 Since Tt (2) and T ( 5 ) are similar, accept this solution 2 N., r = N.,r - X: =5-3=2 Results: r X T (X.: r 1 3 2.49 3 buses (2 - 2 trips, 1 - 1 trips) 2 5 2.55 5 buses ( 5 - 1 trip) 8 2 buses used as a reserve Discussions with emergency planners have indicated that suf ficient bus resources are available so that multiple bus runs on se_ected routes are not required; additionally, the use of transfer buses are available if required. Consequently, the procedure described above was implemented by assuming X r
= n for all routes.
A summary of the results of the transit analysis described preziously is presented in Table 3-9. Bus routes were subdivided into three segments: O V 10-21 Rev. 5
Table 10-9. Results of Analysis to Obtain Bus Route Times for Transit-Dependent Persons Within the EPZ Total Travel Suses Route Route Length (miles) Time per Time In- Service Out- T. Route T r (X,) Community Route bound Area bound thours) X' (hours) Plymouth P-1 14.7 5.3 10.0 2.07 7 2.87 P-2 7.0 8.7 6.7 2.07 7 2.87 P-3 14.0 8.7 7.0
^
_.60 7 2.40 P-4a .4.7 '. 4 . 0 5.3 '. 6 5 5 2.05 P-4b .') . 3 _G . . a~ c . '. _ . "s .' E
. 9 . .' .' '
Pickup Cordage Pk 13.0 - 10.0 _~.26 5 1.26 Points Court St.
& Robbins Rd. 13.0 -
10.0 _.26 5 . 1.26 Sheraton 13.0 - 10.0 1.26 5 1.26 Plaza Plymouth / C-2 - 26.6 - 2.96 __ji 3 .3 64* Carver 51 e k Carver C-1 16.7 2.7 2.09 2- 2.29 - C-3 -
'8.5 -
2.31 2 2.51 4 Kingston K-1 - 13.3 - 1.33 6 2.13 K-2 - 20.0 - 2.08 _E 2.88 Duxbury M-1 3.3 9.7 3.7 '. 79 3 2.19 M-2 9.0 3.0 2.0 _.38 3 1,48
- v. _ -a i 9_ . - _ .-
..e,~
Fickup Powder Pt. 6.0 - 6.0 ;.75 1 0.75 7: int Bridge ' _2 Marshfield M-4 4.0 '0.0 _ 4.0 1.91 1 2.31 1
. Buses leave Staging Area and return to Staging Area.
Only ful; buses are sent to Recep:::n 2en:ers l
' 1 Three bus runs are required; Runs _ and 2 use t'eto buses '
per run, Run 3 uti_' ices :ne bus. 10-22 Rev. 5
I A o Inbound - This is the route segment between the bus h staging / transfer point and the start of the transit service area. Travel speeds along this segment are dependent on the roadways used for this leg of the route. A speed of 50 mph was used for limited access highways (Route 3); 40 mph was used for other roads. o Service Area - This is the portion of the bus route where transit dependent persons are picked up on demand. It is possible for the entire bus route to lie within a service area. Speeds within the service area are assumed to be the minimum of speeds computed by IDYNEV for segments of the bus route along evacuation routes and 10 mph. Ten miles per hour was taken as the average speed of a bus which stops periodically to pick up passengers. o Outbound - Following the traverse of the service area buses will return to the cus staging area / transfer point. Speeds on the outbound leg are determined by IDYNEW if the outbound leg is an evacuation route, or 40 mph on roads not used for evacuation. Buses assigned to fixed pickup points have the lowest bus route times. Consequently, these buses should be dispatched from the pickup points and proceed to Reception Centers when they are ( ) k./ full, or nearly full. The last bus to leave the bus pickup point should_be dispatched near the conclusion of the evacuation of the ' general public (see Table 9-8). The transit-dependent ETE can be estimated by summing the bus preparatory activity times (Table 10-8) and the total route times presented in Appendix 0. The results are shown below ir. Table 10-10. Schools and Special Facilities The Transportation Coordinator has the responsibility for assigning available transport to service the needs of transit-dependent persons, according to some system of prioritization. It is reasonable to expect that the first arriving buses will be sent to the schools. It is essential that the local Transportation Officer determine the actual transportation needs (buses, lif t vans, and/or I station wagons) required at each school, day care, and/or camp _a_tt l the time of the emergency. If any additional resources above the default numbers are required, the Transportation Officer must provide these transportation needs to the MEMA Area II Transportation Officer by phone, f . 1 O 10-23 Rev. 5 I I l.
i l l l l
/7 Table 10-10. Evacuation Time Estimates for the V Transit-Dependent Population Within the Entire EPZ Elapsed Time Elapsed Time (hrs: min) from Start (hrs: min) from the of Mobilizaticn at the Directive to the Declaration of a Evacuate Site Area Emergency Community Good Adverse Good Adverse Weather Weather Weather Weather Plymouth 7:30 7:45 7: 05 7:20 Kingston 6:55 ':10 6:30 6:45 l i
Carver 6:55 : 10 6:30 .6:45 Duxbury 6:15 6:30 5:50 6:05 i Marshfield 6:25 6:40 6:00 6:15 i l I l v 4 a 10-24 Rev. 5 l
Figure 10-4 presents the identification and location of all schools within the Pilgrim EPZ. i
- Table 10-11 presents enrollments 1 and maximum transportation requirements for each school in the EPZ.
Discussions with school district personnel have indicated that Plymouth, Duxbury, Kingston, and Carver schools require additional transportation to execute their early dismissal plans in a single bus run. Marshfield has sufficient transportation resources to j execute their early dismissal plans in a single bus run. In the event an evacuation is directed, current policy is to dispatch to the schools all transportation resources that have been previously j j requested by the town based upon total school ! i requirements. Several factors would tend te reduce the need for l buses, vans, and station wagons identified in the town's initial I request Each activity for local buses is discussed below; the I estimated times for the supplemental buses were given earlier.
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j Activity: Mobilize Drivers 1 Mobilization may be defined as the elapsed time from the j moment that the transit agency is .otified of the need for vehicles ( y until origin. the time the vehicles leave their respective points of j Mobilization of transportation resources for schools, day ; cares, Level, and camps is scheduled to begin at the Alert Emergency ' ' Discussions with local school district personnel yield the t l l following estimates of average bus driver mobilization time: l Plymouth 30 minutes Duxbury 90 minutes Kingston 60 minutes Marshfield 60 minutes Carver 45 minutes Mobilization of supplemental buses required to accomplish the one-wave school evacuation was defined in Table 10-8. 1 Activity: Proceed to Schools In general, buses are stored at a central bus depot owned by the bus company, at drivers homes, or at town facilities. Distances between bus storage areas and schools are generally under 5 miles. Trip times for local buses from the storage areas to the schools are approximately 10 minutes. [ 1 10-25 Rev. 5 f I
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Figure 10-4. P1 PLYMOUTH HORTH H S. I Location of Public Schools P2 O PLYMOUTH COMMUNITY t S in the Pilmrim u EPZ P3 P4 NATHAN EL MORTON E S COLD SPRINGS SCHOOL PS OPEN P6 HEDGE SCHOOL P7 OAK STREET SCHOOL P8 MANOMET E.S. P9 FEDERAL FURNACE SCHOOL P10 INDIAN BROOK SCHOOL P11 j SOUTH E.S. N P12 WEST E S.
, P13 MT. PLEASANT P S
/ P14 PLYMOUTH SOUTH H S I P15 RISING TIDE SCHOOL K1 KINGSTON E.S.
' K2 SILVER LAKE H.S.
f~ 10 K3 SACRED HEART SCHOOL l C1 BENJAMIN ELUS SCHOOL
/ C2 CARVER H S C3 GOV JOHN CARVER E S 9
i o /p , Di D2 ouxBuRY HiGH SCHOOL e DUXBURY MIDDLE SCHOOL AND m ALDEN ELEMENTARY SCHOOL D3 CHANDLER E S.
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Activity: Load / Unload Passenaers i of 2-4Studies secondshave shown that passengerc can board a bus at headways (Ref. 1994 Highway Capacity Manual) A bus can be
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loaded with school children in about five minutes. Allow another five minutes for organizing and monitoring the children. Activity: Travel from School to EPZ Boundarv l School buses moving out of the EPZ will be evacuating before the general public. ' Therefore, the assumption that speeds of buses within the EPZ are governed by traffic conditions during the evacuation are conservative. Table 10-12 presents a summary of average route speeds for the winter Midweek, Midday, Good Weather Scenario (Scenario 5). Values shown in the table were computed by using a weighted average of individual link speeds on paths from schools to the EPZ boundary. A summary of estimated times for these activities is presented in Table 10-13. Schools ETEs are presented for local and supplemental buses. It is expected that most buses required for school evacuation will be obtained from the transportation' resource providers operating in accordance with the Letter of Agreement. ETEs are presented for these buses as well. Note that the ETE for school buses are less than that for the general public -- compare the figures in Table 10-13 with those in Table 9-8. It should be noted that these estimates assume a rapidly escalating scenarios, event. Under other (slowly escalating accident] y school children are transported to host schools beginning at a Site Area Emergency. Scecial Facilities Figures 10-5, 10-6 and 10-7 present identification and location of special facilities in the Pilgrim EPZ. The time to load ambulatory passengers at special facilities is comprised of the time to travel from the local transportation center to the special facilities and then to load the passengers. Studies have shown that passengers can board a bus at headways of 2-4 seconds (see 1985 Highway Capacity Manual) Thus, if we increase these headways to account for elderly passengers, and allow additional time to walk to the bus, then we estimate that a bus can be fully loaded in about 12 minutes 15 second mean headway for 40 passengers) O 10-28 Rev. 5 x
Table 10-12. Average Route Speeds During Evacuation; Winter, Midweek, Midday, Good Weather (Scenario 5) ' 'h 1 Average speed (miles / hour) at indicated elapsed times from Directive to Evacuate. Path I hour 2 hours l 3 hours 4 hours { Route 44 West ! from Plymouth Center 7.9 8.2 26.0 39.9 l Route 3A South, Manomet 7.7 7.3 35.9 40.0 Bourne Road South 34.0 34.1 35.0 35.0 l Route 106 ' Kingston 36.8 40.5 40.9 40.9 Route 27 Kingston 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 l Route 58 f_ North Carver 45.6 45.8 49.4 49.8 i (N/ ) ' Route 3A . North Duxbury 31.3 35.0 35.0 35.0 Route 53/14 Duxbury 46.6 46.6 46.6 46.6 I i tN b 10-29 Rev. 5
l Table 10-13. School Evacuation Time Estimates for one l Round Trip l Supp. Community Activity Buses Plymouth Kinoston Carver Duxbury Marshfield Mobilize 1:30 :30 1:00 :45 1:30 1:00 Drivers Proceed :30 :10 :10 :10 :10 :10 to Schools Driver -
- 15 :15 :15 :15 :15 Preparation Elapsed 2:00 :55 1:25 1:10 1:55 1:25 Time to Arrive at School (average)
Board :10 :10 :10 :10 :10 :10 Students Travel to :15 1:15 1:15 :05 :10 :05 EPZ Bdry O V Elapsed Time from 2:25 2:20 2:50 1:25 2:15 1:40 j ' Site Area Level I ETE 2:00 1:55 2:25 1:00 1:50 1:15 l 1 i l Notes: Use of supplementary buses are required to avoid multiple l bus runs. Supplemental bus mobilization is discussed in ! Table 10-8. Current Massachusetts Emergency Management l Agency commitments with bus providers call for buses to arrive at schools within 3 hours. Driver preparation involves the distribution of dosimetry and maps and is l performed at the home location of buses. I It is assumed that the mobi_ization process begins at the ALERT which, according t c. the Planning Basis, occurs 25 minutes prior to the Directive to Evacuate.
/~~N 10-30 Rev. 5
l l Figure 10-5. l I Location of SpecialFacilities Children's Camps and Jalls P1 Cachatot scout Reservation in the Pilgrim EPZ P2 Camp squanto P3 Wind in the Pines Girl Scout Center P4 Camp Clark
- F5 Camp Massasoit 1 P6 Camp Bournedale P7 Pinewood Camp N P8 Plymouth House of Correction
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P10 Town of Plymouth Jall P11 Myles Standish State Forest
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T Figure 10-6. $ $Jsp[n ChHdcare P3 Kinder Kollege I I Location of SpecialFacillfleS P4 Busy Bee Nursery and Day Care P5 Ponds Child Care Center Day Care Centers P6 Seven Hills Nursery School In the Pilgrim EPZ P7 Methodist Nursery School P8 Superkids of Plymouth P9 Zion Chnstian Pre-school P10 Plymouth Discovery Center P11 Happy Day Nursery y P12 Pilgrim Manor Day Care
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Figure 10-7. I I P1 Life Care Nursing Home P2 Beverly Manor Nursing Home l oCation of SpecialFacilities P3 Chitten House nest Home Nursing Homes, Hospitals and P4 Mayflower House Hursing Home Habilitation Centers in the Pilgrim P5 Pilgrim uanor Nursing Horne - EPZ P6 Newfield House Convelescent Home P7 Plymouth Day Habilitation P8 Jordan Hospital P9 High Point P10 MDMH Loremar/Moriarty N p11 uDus.ResselStreet
, P12 Baird Center P13 Team Works P14 Plymouth Crossing
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f~ The time to travel to the facility from the staging area depends on the distance traveled and on whether the bus will be b traveling with, or counterflow, the evacuating public. If we assume the former, and apply the mean speed of 8.6 mph obtained for Scenario 1, Region _1, as computec by the :DYNEV simulation, then for a distance of say, 6 miles within the community, the travel time will be about 40 minutes. Thus the total time to load passengers at special facilities is approximately 50 minutes. ! The time to travel out of the EPZ depends on several factors: o The location where this trip originates. o The traffic environment at the time this trip begins. l The discussion above, in the context cf the estimates given in . Table 10-8, has identified tha; a reas:nsble estimate of :he l elapsed time from the Directive TO Evacuate :: the time that a bus 3 servicing a special facility is loaded, is about 4.'5 hours. Reference to Table 9-8 indicates that this ::=e is approximately 1 hour longer than the shortest evacuation time estimate. Thus it is seen that the buses and vans used to evacuate special facilities will, for the most part, join with, and be embedded within, the overall traffic streams evacuating the EPZ. O I Emercency Medical Service (EMS) Vehicles
%. j i 'The previous discussion focused on ransit operations for ambulatory persons within the EPZ. It is also necessary to prcvide transit services to non-ambulatory persons who do not--or cannot--have access to private vehicles.
1 These EMS vehicles are vans equipped for transporting non-ambulatory persons (e.g. those confined to wheel chairs), j amoulettes and ambulances. Since : hey are generally available on an emergency basis, it is reasonable o expect . hat their mobilization times would be much less than for bus vehic.es. :n fact, drivers f:r EMS are always either "on-station" :r :an be reached via a elecom pager. :t is therefere reas:nanle to expect that mobilitation time for EMS vehicles can be completed within 20 l minutes. On the other hand, many EMS vehicles ;culd have to travel much longer distances to the EPZ, than would buses. For example, IMS vehicles from the Boston area would trave _ a total of about 40 miles to a community within the EPZ and thence to a facility to pick-up passengers. A mean inbound trave; speed of 50 mph on limited access highways is assumed. Thus the total elapsed time, at worst. from notification o y the loading of an EMS vehicle at .:s destination lithin the EPZ, ;s estimatea at: 10-34 Rev. 5
r Arrival of 90th i Percentile Vehicle 2:45 Delays at EPZ Boundary and Staging Areas 0:45 x Travel from Staging Area to Facility 10 miles /25 mph 0:25 Loading Passengers: 0:10 4:05 The time to load up to two passengers into an EMS vehicle assumes that these passengers have been prepared for transportation prior to the arrival of the vehicle. Outbound travel would be controlled by the speed of evacuating general traffic since all EMS vehicles will begin evacuation prior to the ETE for those in private vehicles. Using Table 10-12, a conservative outbound speed may be set at 8 miles per hour. Further, assuming an EMS vehicle travels, on average 5 miles to the EPZ boundary, the outbound travel time is approximately 0:40. Consequently the ETE, referenced from the Evacuation Directive, is 4:05 + 0:40 - 0:25 or 4:20. For slowly escalating accidents, EMS vehicles are ready to be dispatched from staging areas when the Evacuation Directive is issued. Consequently, the ETE is comprised of the time required to travel to the facility, load passengers, and leave the EPZ. Under these conditions, the ETE is: 0:25 + 0:10 + 0:40 or 1:15. O Plymouth County Prison y A new prison facility has been constructed in Subarea 3, approximately 2.5 miles from Pilgrim Station. Access to the new prison is from Long Pond Road. The prison has a capacity of 1600 inmates versus the 560-600 inmate capacity of the current facility. Approximately 45 buses are required to evacuate 1600 inmates. However the actual number of inmates must be ascertained at the time of the emergency. The need for security, additional personnel on each bus, police escort for the convoy of buses, etc. must be assessed. It is anticipated that the inmate population could be evacuated within the same time frame as the special facility population. 1 l l A l 10-35 Rev. 5 l
Conclusions The evacuation time estimates for transit-dependents, special facilities, and emergency medical services are all within the i period of time during which the general punlic is evacuating. The i last vehicles departing special facilities within the EPZ will leave the area after the last of the general population has departed. The results of these analyses are summari::ed in Tables 9-10 under the columns labeled Special Population Evacuation Time. l 0 10-36 gey, 5 End l
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r O V
- 11. SURVEILLANCE OF EVACUATION OPERATIONS There is a need for surveillance of traffic operations during the evacuation. There is also a concomitant need for tow-truck equipment to clear any blockage of roadways arising from accidents
; or vehicle disablement.
Surveillance can take several forms.
- 1. Aerial patrol
- 2. Ground patrol
- 3. Fixed-point This plan calls for all forms of surveillance to be applied:
- 1. Arrangements may be made with the Civil Air Patrol to provide aerial surveillance, using fixed-wing aircraft.
Such surveillance is effective both day and night, weather permitting. The aircraf t must have a communication link to the State EOC and the pilots must be trained to utilize dosimetry equipment and be informed so that he can avoid the plume, if any.
- 2. Ground patrol can be undertaken by State police along well-defined paths to ensure coverage of those highways
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which serve as major evacuation routes. Such patrols are not essential in the presence of air surveillance and " multiple TCP; however, they should be undertaken if personnel resources permit. Figure 11-1 depicts 6 patrol routes, identified as PR-1 through PR-6. Each such closed path is delineated on Figure 11-1 by cross- hatching the enclosed area.
- 3. Fixed-point surveillance is provided by all traf fic guides located at the Traffic Control Posts (TCP -- See Appendix I) and at the Access Control Posts (ACP -- See Appendix L) .
These concurrent surveillance procedures are designed to provide coverage of the entire EPZ as well as the area around its periphery. With this coverage, any blockage caused by a disabled vehicle should be quickly identified within a matter of minutes: o From the air, a blockage is identified by a marked discontinuity in traffic density. Upstream of the blockage, evacuating vehicles will exhibit a dense queuing pattern while the highway downstream will exhibit a very low density. Such a discontinuity is easily detected at night, by observing the pattern of head-lights and tail-lights, and by day, directly. A b 11-1 Rev. 5
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A o The patrol cars, manned by experienced police personnel, C/ should be able to travel faster than the general public along those portions of their routes which are in the outbound direction. These patrol routes are designed so that the patrols travel counter-flow, relative to the evacuees, on these roads which are most heavily congested. For example, Patrol Route 3 (PR-3) travels inbound along Route 44 and outbound (i.e. with the evacuating traffic) along the lesser congested Tremont Road. i Most patrol routes are approximately 15-20 miles in 1 length. This length, in combination with skillful driving j i by experienced police personnel, should permit one cycle l over the route to be completed well within one hour. A blockage would be identified visually using the same l criteria of density discontinuity described above, or ! directly. While such patrols are somewhat redundant if aerial surveillance is available, we recommend its implementation if resources permit. Certainly, as traffic volumes decrease with time, some personnel at lightly-loaded TCP could assume this role of patrolling the indicated routes. D o Personnel at the TCP and ACP would recognize that a blockage (beyond visible range) has occurred, when a (O pronounced and extended decrease in evacuating traffic ' volume is observed along an evacuation route. While short-term fluctuations in demand are common, any sharp decrease in demand which prevails for more than three minutes should be viewed as a symptom of a possible blockage somewhere on an approach to the TCP location. It is also probable that a passing motorist will inform the i traffic guide that a blockage has taken place. I The traffic guide would immediately report to the EOC that an apparent blockage is taking place. If more than one guide is stationed at the TCP, then one officer can leave the post to investigate the cause. If a police car is patrolling the route, then that car can be assigned to investigate. l l Tow Vehicles In a low-speed traf fic environment, any vehicle disablement is likely to arise due to mechanical failure or exhausting the fuel supply. In either case, the disabled vehicle can be pushed onto the shoulder, thereby restoring access for the following vehicles. Q 11-3 Rev. 5
O* Most accidents involving vehicles traveling at low speeds 2 will not result in a vehicle disablement most of those that are disabled can be pushed onto the shoulder. Experience in past emergencies indicate that such activities (i.e. pushing a disabled vehicle to the side of the road) is often undertaken by other
- evacuees who are anxious to continue their trips.
While the need for tow vehicles is expected to be low under the circumstances described above, it is still prudent to be prepared for such a need. be deployed at strategic locations We therefore reccmmend that tow trucks within, EPZ. or just outside, the These locations should be selected so that: o They permit access to key, heavily loaded, evacuation routes, o Tow trucks responding to a need would most likely travel counter-flow relative to evacuating traffic. call Tow as part trucksoftothe aid Town vehicles RERPinvolved Plans. in the evacuation are on-equipment is to clear the roads of any The obstruction function and to of such return to their original locations to await any subsequent call for assistance. Of course, if another call'for assistance is received by a tow truck while responding to an earlier call, it would O proceed directly to the second location after completing the removal of the disabled vehicle, or other obstruction, from the ' roadway. These tow trucks should all have communication equipment linked, either directly or indirectly, with the EOC. They should also carry a supply of gasoline to assist any motorist who has exhausted his/her fuel supply. For example, the average vehicle speed for the case of Scenario 1 and Region 1, is about 9 miles per hour. 11-4 Rev. 5 End
- 12. CONFIRMATION TIME
\ It is necessary to confirm that the evacuation process is effective, in the sense that the public is complying with the directive to evacuate. Since it is not feasible to confirm the ' compliance of every household within the EPZ in a timely manner, a procedure which employs a stratified random sample may be considered. The following discussion outlines such a procedure. The size of the sample is dependent on the expected number of households which do not comply with the directive to evacuate. We believe it is reasonable to assume, for the purpose of estimating sample size, that at least 80-percent of the population within the EPZ will comply with the directive to evacuate. On this basis, an analysis was undertaken (see Exhibit 12-1) which yielded an estimated sample size of approximately 300. The confirmation process should start at about 3 hours after the directive to evacuate is announced or 1 % hours prior to the ETE value, whichever is later. For example, if the ETE, referenced to the directive to evacuate, is 5:30, then the confirmation process should begin 4 hours after the directive. If the ETE is 3:30, then the confirmation process should begin 3 hours after the directive to evacuate. At these times, for either case, virtually all evacuees will have departed on their respective trips and the local telephone system will be largely free of traffic.
"As iridicated in Exhibit 12-1, almost 8 % person hours are needed to complete the telephone survey. If 7 people are assigned to this task, each dialing a different set of telephone exchanges, then the confirmation process will extend over a time frame of about 75 minutes. Thus, the confirmation should be completed about 15 minutes before the evacuated area is cleared (for those cases where the ETE exceeds 4:30) or up to 45 minutes after the area is cleared, for situations with shorter ETE. Of course, fewer people would be needed for this survey if only a portion of the EPZ is directed to evacuate.
Should the number of telephone responses (i.e. people still at home) exceed 20 percent, then the telephone survey should be repeated af ter an hour's interval until the confirmation process is completed. Summarv of ETE Confirmation times, as tabulated in Tables 9-10a through 9-10d are calculated on the basis that two persons are involved in the telephone survey if Region 9 is evacuated, four persons if Regions 5-8 are evacuated, and one person per ERPA for Regions 1-4. O 12-1 Rev. 5 1 9
Exhibit 12-1. Estimated Number of Telephone Calls Required l for Confirmation of Evacuation Problem Definition Estimate number of phone calls, n, needed to ascertain the proportion, p, of households that have not evacuated l
Reference:
Burstein, H., Attribute Samolina, McGraw Hill, 1971 Given: No. of households plus other facilities, N, within the EPZ (est.) = 25,000 Est. proportion, F, of households that will 1ot evacuate = 0.20 Allowable error margin, e: 0.05 Confidence level, : 0.95 (implies A = 1.96) Applying Table 10 of cited reference, , p = p + e = 0.25 ; q = 1 - p = 0.75 A2 pq+e n= = 308 e2 nN
,,p Finite population correction:
' nr= = 304 )
n+N-1 Thus, some 300 telephone calls will confirm that approximately 20 percent of the population has not evacuated. If only 10 percent i of the population does not comply with the directive to evacuate, I then the required sample size, nr= 215. ! Est, Person Hours to comolete 300 telechone calls i Assume: Time to dial using touch-tone (random selection of ; listed numbers): 30 seconds Time for 8 rings (no answer): 48 seconds Time for 4 rings plus short conversation: 60 sec. Interval between calls: 20 sec. Person Hours: 300 [30+20+0.8 (48) +0.2 (60) ] /3600 = 8.4 12-2 Rev. 5 End
SS APPENDIX A Glossary of Terms t 1
}
1 l l Appendix A: Glossary of Terms G b Tgrm ! Definition Capacity Maximum number of vehicles which have a i reasonable expectation of passing a given I section of roadway in one direction i during a given time period prevailing under roadway and traffic conditions. These are estimates which are expressed as vehicles per hour (vph) . Centroid An origin or destination located in the interior of the network. Content Number of vehicles occupying a section of roadway at a particular point in time. Destination A location in the network, either within the interior or on the periphery, to which trips are attracted. , l Entry Node A network node, usually located on the periphery as an origin. of a network, which serves only (S ( ,) .. generated and That is, vehicles are move into the network to 1 travel toward their respective destinations. 1 Exit Node l A network node, usually located on the periphery of a network, which serves only as a destination. That is, vehicles which arrive at an exit node are discharged from the network. Green-Time to Cycle Time The ratio of the duration of a green interval to the cycle length. This ratio denotes the proportion of time available to service on a a specified traffic movement specific approach to an intersection. Internal Node All nodes which are not Entry or Exit i l nodes. Vehicles travel through these l j nodes their from one link to the next along respective paths toward their respective destinations. O . . l n-Rev. 5 : I
)
e T_em Definition Level of Service An index (A, B, E) which is a qualitative descriptor of the operational performance of traffic on a section of roadway, usually expressed in terms of speed, travel time or density. In practice, each Level of Service index is often associated with a range of service volumes. This relation depends on the type of facility (freeway, rural road, urban street). Link A network link represents a specific, one-directional section of roadway. A link has both physical (length, number of lanes, topology, etc.) and operational (turn movement percentages, service rate, free-flow speed) characteristics. Measures of Effect. Statistics describing traffic operations on a roadway network. Node A network node generally represents a specific intersection of network links. A node has control characteristics, i.e. {n }
the allocation of service tirne to each approach link.
3 Origin A location in the network, either within the interior, or on the periphery, where trips are generated at a specified rate expressed in vehicles per hour (vph). These trips enter the roadway system to travel to their respective destinations. Network A graphical representation of the geometric topology of a physical roadway system, which is comprised of directional links and nodes. Prevailing conditions Relate to the physical features of the roadway, the nature (e.g. composition) of traffic on the roadway and the ambient conditions (weather, visibility, pavement conditions, etc.). p v A-2 Rev. 5
l i
. Tam Definition i Service Rate Maximum rate at which vehicles, executing a specific turn maneuver, can be discharged from a section of roadway at the prevailing conditions, expressed in vehicles per second (vps).
Service Volume Maximum number of vehicles which can pass over .a section of roadway in one direction during'a specified time period with operating conditions at a specified Level of Service. (The service volume at Level of Service, E, is equal to Capacity.) Service Volume is usually expressed as vehicles per hour (vph). Signal Cycle, The total elapsed time to display all signal indications, in sequence. The cycle length is expressed in seconds. Signal Interval A single combination of signal indications. The interval duration is expressed in seconds. In general, several intervals, in sequence, comprise a phase.
)
Sign &l Phase A set of signal indications (and intervals) which services a particular combination of traffic movements on the approaches to the intersection. The phase duration is expressed in seconds. Traffic Assignment A process of assigning traffic to paths of travel in such a way as to satisfy all trip objectives (i.e. the desire of each vehicle to travel from a _ specified origin in the network to a specified destination) and to optimize some stated objective or combination of objectives. In general, the objective is stated in terms of minimizing a generalized " cost" . For example, " cost" may be expressed in terms of travel time. 4 O A-3 Rev. 5
gm Term Definition \ )
Traffic Density The number of vehicles which occupy one i lane of a roadway section of specified {
length at a point of time, expressed as ' vehicles per lane-mile (vplm or vpm). 3 Traffic Simulation A computer model designed to replicate the real-world operation of vehicles on a roadway network, so as to provide statistics describing traffic performance. These statistics are called Measures of Effectiveness. Traffic Volume The number of vehicles which pass over a section of roadway in on direction, expressed in vehicles per hour (vph). Where applicable, traffic volume may be stratified by turn movement. ' Travel Mode Distinguishes between private auto, bus, rail and air travel modes. I Trip Table A rectangular matrix or table, whose entries contain the number of trips which (]j are generated at each specified origin, during a specified time period', which are attracted to (and travel toward) one of the specified destinations. These values are expressed in vehicles per hour (vph) or in vehicles. Turning Capacity The capacity associated with that component of the traffic stream which executes a specified turn maneuver from an approach at an intersection. f) ' (/ A-4 Rev. 5 End
O APPENDIX B Traffic Assignment Model O
^
4 O
Appendix B: Traffic Assignment Model The traf fic assignment program which is employed in this study is an elaboration t of an existing model developed by Dr. Sang Nguyen. This model is an eauilibrium assignment model which employs mathematical programming methodology to search for, and attain, a global optimum solution. The term, " optimum", implies that the solution is unique and that it minimizes a specified cost function. This cost function, in our application, is expressed directly in terms of aggregate travel time. That is, the model formulation relates travel time to the assigned volumes on each network link according to the following formulation: r TgT [l+a(l)") c, - where { Ti = i Travel Time on link, i, sec T.,1 = Specified free-flow (zero delay) O travel time on - link, i, see Al Vi = Volume of traffic on a link, i, vph Ct = Capacity of link, i, vph a,b = Specified calibration parameters The cost function, then, is formulated in terms of travel time i along each path from each origin to each respective destination. Minimizing this path-specific travel time (i.e. the so-called User
. Optimization), all vehicles are assured of being routed along the shortest (in travel time) possible path to their respective I destinations.
The computational algorithm assigns traffic over the network in such a way as to minimize this aggregate cost. That is, the allocation of volumes, V, to the network links, i = 1, 2, . . . , N is accomplished in such a way as to: 1 Nguyen. S. and James, L., " TRAFFIC - An Eauilibrium Traffic Assianment Procram", Publication No. 17, Centre de Reserche sur les Transports, March 1975. B-1 Rev. 5
;(]j e Satisfy all specified origin-destination demands, i
e I e Satisfy the minimum-cost (travel time) objective, l Satisfy any specified control treatment and turn restrictions designed to:
- Expedite the evacuation process 3
,. - Minimize radiation exposure of the vehicle occupants. l Most applications of traffic assignment employ constant, estimated, values of link capacity C . It is well known, however, i that link capacity is a function of many factors including the (unknown) turn volumes on all links serviced by a common intersection. Consequently, the assumption of constant link capacity compromises the efficacy of the assignment results. l { To resolve this problem, KLD has expanded the existing TRAFFIC model to incorporate a model, named the TRAFLO CAPACITY model. This model computes accurate estimates of capacity, C,, that are i always consistent with the assigned volumes, vi , on each link. i This capacity model consists of three integrated components e A formulation which calculates the service rates for through and left-turning vehicles in a lane, given, among other data, the proportion of left-turners in the lane, o Another formulation for through and right-turner service rates, (O) e A formulation which calculates the lateral deployment of traffic on an approach, yielding the proportion of through and turning vehicles in each lane. These three components are exercised in an iterative manner to produce accurate and self-consistent estimates of service rates for approaches of general configuration and for all types of control devices. Many tests have confirmed that this solution procedure is rapid, accurate and unconditionally convergent. In summary, the Traf fic Assignment Model used in this project represents the latest state-of-the-art and provides accurate estimates of link volumes, stratified by turn movement at the downstream mode (intersection). These turn volumes on each link are subsequently input into the Traffic Simulation Program. I Another output provided by the Traf fic Assignment model is the estimated travel times on each link. These estimates are not particularly accurate -- they are usually optimistic -- but they do identify the " hot spots" in the network: those links which are severely congested. This permits the analyst to identify candidate 4 solutions to relieve the congestions and to expedite the flow of
, traffic.
( U) B-2 Rev. 5 End i I
O APPENDIX C Traffic Simulation Model: IDYNEV O . O
Appendix C: Traffic Simulation Model: IDYNEV A model, named IDYNEV, is an adaptation of the TRAFLO Level II simulation model, developed by KLD for the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), with extensions in scope to accommodate all types of facilities. This model produces an extensive set of output MOE as shown in Table C-1. The traffic stream is described in terms of a set of link-specific statistical flow histograms. These histograms describe the. platoon structure of the traffic stream on each network link. ' The simulation logic identifies five types of histograms: e The ENTRY histogram which describes the platoon flow at the upstream end of the subject link. This histogram is simply an aggregation of the appropriate OUTPUT turn-movement-specific histograms _of all feeder links. e The INPUT histograms which describe the platoon flow pattern arriving at the stop line. These are obtained by first disaggregating the ENTRY histogram into turn-movement-specific component ENTRY histograms. Each such component is modified to account for the platoon dispersion which results as traffic traverses the link. The resulting INPUT histograms reflect the specified turn percentages for the subject link. I e The SERVICE histogram which describe the service rates for each turn movement. These service rates reflect the type of control device servicing traffic on this approach; if it is a signal, then this histogram reflects the specified movement-specific signal phasing. A separate model was developed to estimate service rates for each turn movement, given that the control is GO. e The QUEUE histogram which describe the time-varying ebb and growth of the queue formation at the stop line. These histograms are derived from the interaction of the respective IN histograms with the SERVICE histograms. e The OUT histograms which describe the pattern of traffic discharging from. the subject link. Each of the IN l histograms is transformed into an OUT histogram by the control applied to the subject link. Each of these OUT histograms is added into the (aggregate) ENTRY histogram of its receiving link. O C-1 Rev. 5
[i-l l l Table C-1. Measures of Effectiveness Output by IDYNEV Measure Units
.=
Travel Vehicle-Miles and Vehicle-Trips Moving Time Vehicle-Minutes Delay Time Vehicle-Minutes Total Travel Time Vehicle-Minutes Efficiency: Moving Time / Total Travel Time Percent Mean Travel Time per Vehicle Seconds Mean Delay per Vehicle Seconds Mean Delay per Vehicle-Mile Seconds / Mile Mean Speed Miles / Hour p Mean Occupancy Vehicles 'y , Mean' Saturation Percent
-Vehicle Stops Percent
{ These data are provided for each network link and are also aggregated over the entire network. l l V C-2 Rev. 5
Note that this approach provides the IDYNEV model with the g- ability to identify the characteristics of each turn-movement-specific component of the traffic stream. Each component is serviced at a different saturation flow rate as is the case in the real world. Furthermore, the IDYNEV logic will be able to recognize when one component of the traffic flow is encountering saturation conditions even if the others are not. Algorithms provide estimates of dulay and stops reflecting the S interaction of the IN histograms with the SERVICE histograms. The IDYNEV logic also provides for properly treating spillback conditions reflecting queues extending from one link into its upstream feeder links. A valuable feature of IDYNEV is its ability to internally generate functions which relate mean speed to density on each link, gl.^n user-specified estimates of free-flow speed and saturation service rates for each link. Such relationships are essential in order to simulate traffic operations on freeways and rural roads, where the signal control does not exist or where its effect is not the dominant factor in impeding traffic flow. All traffic simulation models are data-intensive. Table C-2 outlines the input requirements of the IDYNEV Model. O In order to apply the IDYNEV Model, the physical traffic h envigonment must be specified by the user. describes: This ~ input data # o Topology of the roadway system o Geometries of each roadway component e Channelization of traffic on each roadway component e Motorist behavior which, in aggregate, determines the
. operational performance of vehicles in the system o Specification of the traffic control devices and their operational characteristics e Traffic volumes entering and leaving the roadway system i
e Traffic composition. To provide an. efficient framework for defining these specifications, the physical environment is represented as a
. network. The unidirectional links of the network generally represent roadway components: either urban streets or freeway segments. The nodes of the network generally represent urban intersections of points along the freeway where a geometric
, g property changes (e.g. a lane drop, change in grade or ramp). C-3 Rev. 5
p) t Figure C-1 is an example of a network representation. freeway is defined by the sequence of links, (1,2), (2,3), The (5,6). Links (8000,1) and (7,8002) are Entry and Exit links, respectively. An arterial extends from node 7 to node 15 and is partially subsumed within a grid network. The development of the IDYNEV model followed directly after DYNEV was completed. The perceived need for IDYNEV was based upon the requirement for a model having all the demonstrated capabilities of DYNEV, but one which consumed less computer time and storage. The major distinction between DYNEV and IDYNEV is that the latter model directly calculates the intearal of the histograms described earlier (see Figure C-1), instead of computing the amplitudes of each histogram slice, as does DYNEV. One other difference is that in IDYNEV, vehicles which cannot travel along their assigned evacuation route due to excessive congestion will divert to another, alternative evacuation route if the latter is not congested. In all other respects, the two models are either identical (e.g., the input and output software) or are very similar, with any difference reflecting the major distinction described above. This major distinction results in sof tware code which constnaes (Q significantly less storage for IDYNEV than for DYNEV, reflecting ') C/ the elimination of large arrays containing the amplitude va h s of each' histogram slice. The reduced computational burden is reflected in almost a three-fold reduction in computing time. A thorough comparison was made between the results generated by the two models. It was found that all pairs of results, DYNEV and IDYNEV, were virtually identical for a wide variety of network configurations and traf fic demand levels. Note that the two models require the identical input stream and produce identical output formats. On the basis of these results, IDYNEV is used exclusively for the EESF system, to calculate evacuation time estimates, q C-4 Rev. 5
p_ Table C-2. Input Requirements for the IDYNEV Model i
/ \
V GEOMETRICS Links defined by upstream downstream node numbers Links lengths ! / Number of lanes (up to 6) Turn pockets Grade Network topology defined in terms of target nodes I receiving link for each IRAFFIC VOLUMES On type:all entry links and sink / source nodes stratified by vehicle auto, car pool, bus, truck Link-specific turn movements or O-D matrix (Trip Table) ) TRAFFIC CONTROL SPECIFICATIONS > I Traffic signals: link-specific, turn movement specific Control may be fixed-time or traffic-actuated Stop and Yield signs Right-turn-on-red (RTOR) Route diversion specifications l Turn restrictions ( j
\J
)
Lane control (i.e. lane closure) t DRIVER'S AND OPERATIONS CHARACTERISTICS i Drivers (vehicle-specific) response mechanisms: free-flow speed, aggressiveness, discharge headway i Link-specific mean Vehicle-type speed for free-flowing (unimpeded) traffic operational deceleration characteristics: acceleration, Such factors asetc. time, headway, bus route designation, bus station location, dwell t rs
\ \- l C-5 Rev. 5
f l Figure C-1. Representative Analysis Network O i O 8009 \g >O >O .O 8104 8107 n4 g .6 G i[
- x 8008 8010 .g Q
*A 9 4 8007 o 4 X,4 o ;
8012 g 12 14 g4 8006 l 8005 l > > 5 > 8014
)
Yd ,
< < 8004
> 8024 8003 >
A
> G2,N [, >Ql,/# (1 9 8002 A
' 19 Entry, Exit Nodes are numbered m the fomt 8xxx a
O c-e End R. e
APPENDIX D Detailed Description of Study Procedure e
+
e i 1 I l l
f l A Appendix D: Detailed Description of Study Procedure 1 0 i This appendix describes the activities to be performed in i order to produce accurate estimates of evacuation times on the
,. Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) for a nuclear power plant. The individual steps of this effort are represented as a flow diagram in Figure D-1. Each numbered step in the description which follows corresponds to the numbered element in this flow diagram.
E g p _ 1.. The first activity is to obtain data defining the spatial districution of population within the EPZ. Specifically, obtain the population in each of 160 cells of a polar grid which is centered at the nuclear station, and consists of 22.50 sections and rings spaced one mile apart. Transient population characteristics must also be estimated on the same basis. Steo 2. The next activity is to examine a large-scale map of the EPZ. This map enables one to identify the access roads from each residential development to the adjoining elements of the analysis roadway network. This information is necessary in order to assign generated trips to the correct links of the network. This map also enables one to represent the geometrics of complex intersections properly in terms of their network configuration. Steo 3. With this information absorbed, the next step is to b(] conduct a physical survey of the roadway system within the EPZ. '} The ' purpose of this survey is to determine the necessary measurements of roadway length and of the number of lanes on each link, the channelization of these lanes, whether or not there were any turn restrictions or special treatment of traffic at intersections and to gain the necessary insight required for estimating realistic values of roadway capacity. At each major intersection, take note of the traf fic control device which was installed. In addition, determine whether or not, under emergency evacuation conditions, it would be possible to employ paved shoulders as an additional lane in the event such additional capacity wais requiad . Steo 4. With this information, develcp the evacuation network representation of the physical roadway system. Steo 5. With the network drawn, proceed to estimate the capacities of each link and to locate the centroids where trips would be generated during the evacuation process and then enter the analysis network, p O D-1 Rev. 5 r
O* g,,, , u 9@9 Det Demosraphic Datal hamine Tramc Assignment Results o Results n Step 2 Satsedog Study Large Scale EPZ Map " 8'8# 'O Develop Control Treatments and/or Modify Trip Table to improve Results u Step 3 Study EPZ o Step 11 Roadwan System Modify input Stream to Reflect Step 10 Changes v Step 4 Stoo12 Develop Network Complete . Representation Traffic Simulation : Input Stream u Stoo 13 o Steo S Execute Estimate Link Capacrties ; IDYNEV O Locate Centroids , Traffic Simulation I
)
- Step 14 v
o Step 6 Examine Create Traffic Assignment Traffic Simulation changes to input Stream Results Trafnc Assignment Results u Step 7 Satskaoq Debug input Streard o Step 15 Develop Control Treatments and/or Modify Trip Table 3,,, , to improve Results Execute Traffic b Assignment Model * ## I Data Stream b Stoo 17 Documentatiors Figure D-1. Flow Diagram of Activities ( "'N (O D-2 Rev. 5
Steo 6. With all the information at hand, it is time to perform the effort of creating the input stream for the Traffic Assignment Model. This model was designed to be compatible with the Traffic Simulation Model used later in the project, in the sense that the input format required for one model was entirely .- compatible with the input format required by the other, thus avoiding duplication of effort. This step in the procedure is labor-intensive. Fortunately, this input stream need only be developed once; any changes made can be implemented quickly and at i small cost. Thus, it is possible to execute these models on different scenarios with very little effort needed to modify the basic input stream to represent the specific attributes of each scenario. Steo 7. After creating the input stream by using PREDYN, execute the Traffic Assignment Model. This computer program contains upwards of 1,000 diagnostic inconsistencies and any other improper input. This diagnostic software produces messages which assist the user in identifying the source of the problem 'nd a guide the user in preparing the necessary corrections. Steo 8. With the input stream free of error, execute the Traf fic Assignment Model. The Traf fic Assignment program is a very efficient software code. Steo 9. O- The next activity is to examine critically the statistics produced by the Traffic Assignment program. This is a f ; l labor-intensive activity, requiring the direct participation of ' skilled engineers who possess the necessary practical experience to interpret the results and to determine the causes of any problems reflected in the result. Essentially, the approach is to identify those " hot spots" in the network which represent locations where congested conditions are extreme. It is then necessary to identify the cause of this congestion. This cause can take many forms, either as excess demand due to improper routing, as a shortfall of capacity, or as a quantitative error in the way the physical system was represented . in the input stream. The examination of the Traffic Assignment output leads to one of two conclusions:
- The results are as satisf actory as could be expected at this stage of the analysis process, or e Treatments must be introduced in order to improve the flow of traffic.
This decision requires, of course, the application of the user's judgment based upon the results obtained in previous applications of the Traffic Assignment Model and a comparison of D-3 Rev. 5
' the results of this last case with the previous ones. In the event the results are satisfactory, in the opinion of the user then the process continues with the exercise of the simulation model in Step
- 12. Otherwise, proceed to Step 10.
,. Sten 10. There are many " treatments" available to the user in resolving such problems. These treatments range from decisions to reroute the traffic by imposing turn restrictions where they can produce significant improvements in capacity, changing the control treatment at critical intersections so as to provide improved service for one or more movements, or in prescribing specific treatments for channelizing the flow so as to expedite the movement of traffic along major roadway systems or changing the trip table.
Such " treatments" take the form of modifications to the original input stream. We then perform the modifications to the input stream, reflecting the control treatments described above. As indicated previously, such modifications are implemented quickly to the extent that more than one execution of the computer program is possible in a single day. Sten 11. As noted above, the physical changes to the input stream must be implemented in order to reflect the changes in the control treatments undertaken in Step 10. At the completion of this activity, the process returns to Step 8 where the Traffic O Assignment Model is once again executed. - Sten 12. The output of the Traffic Assignment Model includes the computed turn movements for each link. If the user is executing the Traffic Assignment and the Traffic Simulation models in a single run, then this data is automatically accessed by the latter model. If the simulation model is executed separately, the user must modify the input stream for the Traffic Assignment model by beginning in the turn-movement data, using PREDYN. Steo 13. After the input stream has been debugged, the simulation model is executed to provide the user with detailed estimates, expressed as statistical measures of effectiveness (MOE), which describe the detailed performance of traffic operations on each link of the network. Sten 14. In this step, the detailed output of the Traffic Simulation Model is examined in order to identify once again the l problerr s which exist on the network. The results of the simulation model cre extremely detailed and are far more accurate in their ability to describe traffic operations than those provided by the Traffic Assignment Model. Thus, it is possible to identify the cause of the problems by carefully studying the output. Again, one can implement corrective treatments designed to O expedite the flow of traffic on the network in the event that the D-4 Rev. 5
p results are considered to be less efficient than is possible to achieve. ( - In the event that changes are needed, the analysis process proceeds to Step 15. On the other hand, if the results were satisfactory, then one can decide whether it is necessary to return to Step 8 to execute the Traf fic Assignment Model once again ,. and repeat being the the whole process, or to accept the final results as "best" that can be achieved within the reasonable constraints of budget and time allotments. Generally; if there are no changes indicated by the activities of Step 14, then we can conclude that all results were satisfactory, and we can then proceed to document them in Step 17. Otherwise, we have to return to Step 8 in order to determine the effects of the changes implemented in Step 14 on the optimal routing patterns over the network. This determination can only be ascertained by executing the Traffic Assignment Model. Sten 15. This activity implements the changes in control treatments or in the assignment of destinations associated with one or more origins in order to improve the flow of traffic'over the network. These treatments can also include the consideration of additional roadway segments to the existing analysis network in order to disperse the traffic demand and thus avoid the focusing of traffic demand which can produce high levels of congestion. e Sten 16 Once the treatments have been identified, it is necessary to modify the input stream accordingly. At the j completion of this effort, the procedure returns to Step 13 to execdte the simulation model once more. Steo 17 The simulation results are then analyzed, tabulated and graphed. The results are then documented, as required. A Cl D-5 Rev. 5 End
O APPENDIX E Supporting Data + 9 .
. i i
i
i (mf V) Permanent Population 1990 1999 Census 1998 Town Population ,, Town Estimates Estmates Proiection l Plymouth 45,608 49,700 50,262 Kingston 9,045 10,976 11,235 Carver 6,142 6,380 6,411 Duxbury 13,895 14,700 14.768 Marshfield 1,722 1,841 1,857 l Population growth rates were computed for each town based upon the Current Town estimates and the 1990 Census results. These growth rates were used to interpolate 1999 estimates, t
. }
1 6
/
E-1 Rev. 5
(~% (- Employee Populations Massachusetts Department of Employment and Training Emnlovment for towns within the EPZ Town 1990 1996 Plymouth 16,064 17,438 Kingston 4,657 5,118 Carver 1,298 1,579 Duxbury 2,255 2,255 Marshfield 4,200 4,224 These figures were used to compute growth rates and subsequently projected 1999 populations. I D ) NOTE: These figures are counts of employees covered by insurance, and excludes certain job types. There are also other uncertainties. R U i E-2 Rev. 5
r l i l l l Transient Population
\ i
\J General References
. 1. INNEX yellow pages Plymouth, Marshfield area.
- 2. !
Evacuation Times Estimates for areas near Pilgrim Station. ' HMM Document No. 79-048 revised September 18,1980 (Hereaf ter, refered to as the HMM report) l
- 3. Rand McNally Campground and Trailer Park Directory.
- 4. Redbook 1986 Official American Hotel and Motel Directory.
- 5. Chamber of Commerce tourism pamphlets.
- 6. Various town government departments, t
) /) '\ :
f O
- E-3 Rev. 5 l
I. v. It is estimated that on average there are 2.2 evacuating vehicles per summer home within the EPZ. Assume 2.6 persons per vehicle. Plvmeuth: The Water Authority reports 330 summer homes and officials from Duxbury beach in Duxbury report an additional 200
,' summer homes in the Saguish Neck area. There are 530 x 2.2 = 1166 summer home vehicles, and 1166 x 2.6 =
3 032 . summer home people present in Plymouth. Kinoston: The Water Authority reports between 300 and 400 people as the peak number occupying summer homes in Kingston. There are 400 / 2.6 = 154 summer home vehicles and 154 / 2.2 homes-in Kingston.
= 70 summer Carver: Averaging figures that the 1980 Census reports for tracts within Carver yields 3.28 persons per household in Carver. This determines that the 6983 Carver residents occupy 2129 households.
The Duxbury' tax assessor's office reports 4284 single family homes in Duxbury. -The follcwing proportion yields 107 summer, homes in Carver and within the EPZ: 216 summer homes in Duxbury 4284 single family = X summer homes in Carver 2129 single family homes in Duxbury homes in Carver There are 107 x 2.2 = 235 summer home vehicles, and 235 x 2.6 = 611 summer home people present in the portion of Carver within the EPZ. Duxburv: The Water Authority reports 216 summer homes in Duxbury. There are 216 x 2.2 = 475 summer home vehicles, and 475 x 2.6 = 1235 summer home people present in Duxbury. Marshfield: 6946 households in Marshfield stopped delivery on the widely distributed South Shore News. Thus there are 6946 summer homes in the entire town of Marshfield. In order to estimate the number of summer homes in the portion of Marshfield within the EPZ, the following proportion was used: 6946 summer homes in Marsh. X Marsh. summer homes in EPZ
-22904 permanent residents =
1877 Marshfield permanent in Marshfield residents in EPZ This-proportion yields 569 Marshfield summer homes within the EPZ. There are 569 x 2.2 = 1252 summer home vehicles, and 1252 x 2.6 =- 3255 summer home people present in the portion of Marshfield within the EPZ. NOTE: The Plymouth edition of the South Shore News (since closed) reported that no one in Plymouth stopped delivery during the summer. As such, the Water Authority and Duxbury Beach officials remain the best source available. E-4 Rev. 5
,-~ Motels and Hotels l !j'~ Summer-Weekend # of Occu-Community Facility # of Units Occucancy Rate pied Units Plymouth Blue Anchor 4 100% 4 Motel Breezy Hill 9 80% 7 Motel Cold Spring 31 100% 31 Motel I
Colonial House 6 100% 6 Inn Red Oaks 22 100% 22 Motel White Horse 8 95% 8 Motel ' l Sleepy Pilgrim 12 100% t. Motel (') ( ,1 Governor Brad. Motor Inn 94 85% 80
)
Pilgrim Sands 64 100% 64 Motel Sheraton 175 100% 175 Clear Pond 9 100% 9 Motel i l l (,,)' E-5 Rev. 5 1 1
Motels and Hotels 1 V Community Summer-Weekend # of Occu-Facility # of Units Occucancy Rate pied Units Plymouth Governor 79 100% 79 (conc.) Carver Motor ., Inn' j 1 Plymouth 23 100% 23 Motel Duxbury Winsor Inn 4 100% 4 Duxbury Motor 16 95% 15 Inn Kingston Bay View Motel 12 100% 12 Riverview 7 100% 7 Efficiencies Capeway 12 100% 12 Traveler Motel '
/
O () ". Inn at Plymouth ) Bay 66 100% 66 687 670 l NOTE: The number of rooms and occupancy rate was reported by the manager of the particular facility. The number of occupied units is converted to vehicles by the factor .85 vehicles per unit, and to_ people by the factor 2.4 persons / vehicles. O E-6 Rev. 5
1 l l l'\ U Motels and Hotels ! Special Cases I. In the case of the Blue Spruce Motel in Plymouth the manager reports an occupancy rate of 100% for 32 rooms and 4 townhouse units. Hence, this facility has 32 occupied rooms and 4 occupied cabins. This facility is distinguished from the others because the cabins are converted to vehicles by a factor of 1.0 instead of . 85.
~ $
l m E-7 Rev, 5
1 l l Campgrounds Community Peak Facility 1 Population Plymouth Sandy Pond Campground 600 Myles Standish State Forest Campground 1590 Indianhead Resorts 600 Pinewood Lodge Trailer Park 400 Pinewood Camp 550 Blueberry Hill Campground 300 Camp Dennen
, 350 Carver Pine-Wood Way 200 Shady Acres 500 /~N
(,,) Peak population figures were obtained by BECo through telephone contacts with the facility managers. Soecial Cases Community Eacility
- of units # of vehicles Plymouth Ellis Haven 70 70 I
) l The number of units was obtained from the 1986 Rand McNally Campground and Trailer Park Directory. An occupancy rate of 100 percent is assumed. The number of occupied units is converted to { vehicles by the factor 1.0 vehicle per unit and to people by the factor 2.4 persons per vehicle. I O
\m- E-8 Rev. 5
(s Camps Peak Number of . Community Facility Children Present Plymouth Wind in the Pines 850 Camp Bournedale 100 Camp Child 45 Cachalot Scout Reservation 160 Camp Clark 244 Camp Massasoit 50 Camp Squanto 325 Kingston Camp Mishannock 175 Camp Norse Boy Scout Camp 200 Carver Camp Clear . 50 Duxbury Camp Wing 315 Blairhaven/ Cedar Hill Conference Center 30 St. Margaret's Camp 25 Art Association Camp 20 Magic Dragon 100 q Camp Friendship 100
- N) .
~
k E-9 Rev. 5
i l I i V Historic Sites Visitors Avg. Stay Visitor Community Facility Summer Day (minutes) Turn-Over i Plymouth Mayflower 75 45 5 Society House Pilgrim Hall 200 120 3 I Museum William Harlow 25 60-90 4 I House Sparrow House 75 30-45 5 Howland House 75 30 5 Spooner House 25 60-90 4 Antiquarian 75 60-90 4' House Cranberry 2500 30-45 5 I World Jenny Grist 300 60-120 3 Mill 1749 Towne 100 30-90 4 I [)\/ " Court House Plymouth Colony 75 45 5 j Winery Duxbury John Alden 40 60 4 House Art Complex 50 60 4 I Inc. King Caesar 25 45-60 3 House The number of visitors and their average stay was supplied by the manager of each facility listed. The number of visitors present at any one time is computed by dividing the number of visitors per day by the number of times the facility's population is turned over. To convert the number of people present at any one time to the number of vehicles generated by a particular facility assume 2.5 persons per vehicle. i l l l O l E-10 Rev. 5 i l
U g Historic Sites Scecial Case I. In some' cases, the only information available was listed in the
.HMM' report, table B-7.
Community *# Facility of Peoole L Plymouth Plymouth National l 300 Wax Museum Mayflower Experience 200 Kingston . John Bradford House r 80 l l '
-Assume per-day.
for these f acilities that the population turns over 4 times l J
~-11 Rev, 5 l
1
- r Parks & Recreation Town: , Plymouth Facility:
Plymouth l Plantation-Pilgrim Village Source: Judith Ingral, Director of Marketing Services Data: Parking lot capacity is 300 vehicles. She reports that all of her patrons use this; parking lot. i
Conclusion:
300 vehicles Town: Plymouth' Facility: -Plymouth Plantation-Mayflower II Source: -Judith Ingral,. Director of Marketing' Services Data: The number of visitors-is the same for Mayflower II and Pilgrim Village.
Conclusion:
300 Vehicles ".. Town: Plymouth Facility: White Horse Beach Source: Aerial Photographs (July 5, Data: 1987)
-2.54.
Population count of 2387 and average vehicle occupancy of 940 Vehicles
Conclusion:
, . 1 Town: Plymouth Facility: ;
Morton Park- j Source: BECO telephone contact with facility manager Data: 200 vehicles with 3 persons per vehicle. i
Conclusion:
200 vehicles i Town: Plymouth Facility: Myles Standish State Park Source: BECO telephone contact with facility manager Data: The summer weekend population is 1530 day use visitors, 222 registered non-profit group- visitors, and an estimated 3000 additional visitors. Source: . facility manager. Data: 3.5 persons per vehicle Calculations: (1530 + 222 + 3000)/3.5 = 1358 vehicles conclusion: 1358 vehicles O E-12 Rev. 5
Parks & Recreation Town: Plymouth Facility: Plymouth Rock Source: Mr. MacKinzie, Supervisor Wompatuck State Park Department of Environmental Management Data: Division of Forests and Parks On a good day, Plymouth Rock attracts 6500-8000 visitors Calculations: Assume 7500 people per day, and 2.5 persons per vehicle. There are 7500/2.5 = 3000 vehicles per day. Distributing the 3000 vehicles over five two hour periods, we determine that there are 600 vehicles present at any one time.
Conclusions:
600 vehicles Town: Plymouth Facility: Plymouth Beach Source: Aerial Photographs (July 5, 1987) Data: Population count of 1960 and average vehicle occupancy of 2.54
Conclusions:
772 vehicles (N Town: Plymouth Facility: Saquish Neck
}
Source: Aerial Photographs (July 5, 1987) Data: Population count of 654 and average vehicle occupancy of 2.54 (approximately 257 vehicles) Note: The aerial photography of the Saguish Neck Area yielded a vehicle count of 358 vehicles (approximately 910 pecple). A very conservative approach to the estimation of evacuation vehicles from this area was used; the sum of 257 and 358 vehicles was assumed to evacuate Saguish. (257 + 358 = 615 vehicles)
Conclusion:
615 vehicles Town: Plymouth Facility: Priscilla Beach Source: Aerial Photographs (July 5, 1987) Data: Population count of 430 and average vehicle occupancy of 2.54
Conclusion:
169 vehicles e A t
\_ / E-13 Rev. 5
F l 1
/
s
\ Parks & Recreation V
Town: Plymouth Facilitv: Manomet Beach
. Source: Aerial Photographs (July 5, 1987)
Data: Population count of 655 and average vehicle occupancy of 2.54
Conclusion:
258 vehicles Town: Kingston Facility: Gray's Beach Source: Aerial Photographs (July 5, 1987) Data: 41 vehicles
Conclusions:
41 vehicles l Town: Carver Facility: Sampson Pond Source: Joanne Henderson, Recreation Committee Data: Maximum of 300 people Calculations: Assuming 2.5 persons per vehicle, there are 300/2.5 f-'g = 120 vehicles generated by this facility at peak attendance. ( Nw#
)
Conclusions:
120 vehicles i l Town: CarVIr Facility: % n's ?cnd Source: Jodhne Henderson, Recreation Committee Data: Maximum of 300 people Calculations: Assuming 2.5 persons per vehicle, there are 300/2.5
= 120 vehicles generated by this facility at peak attendance.
Conclusions:
120 vehicles Town: Carver Facility: Edaville Railroad Source: BECO telephone contact with facility manager Data: Parking lot capacity is 800 vehicles
Conclusion:
800 vehicles O E-14 Rev. 5
1 l i l l I Parks & Recreation Town: Carver Facility: King Richard's Faire
, Source: BECO telephone contact with facility manager Data: 1000 vehicles ,
Conclusion:
1000 vehicles Town: Duxbury Facility: Myles Standish Monument Source: Mr. MacKinzie, Supervisor Wompatuck State Park Department of Environmental Management Division of Forests and Parks. Data: During the summer season the park attracts 8000 people per ' month Calculations: Assume that 75% of 8000 or 6000 visitors attend this
' facility on a weekend day.
month, there are 6000/4 = Then, since there are 4 weekends per 1500 visitors on a typical weekend. Hence, there are 1500/2 = 750 visitors on a typical weekend day. Assuming 2.5 persons per vehicle, there are 750/2.5 or 300 vehicles generated by this facility on a typical weekend day. Distributing 300 vehicles over two 4 1/2 hour time periods, we determine that there are 150 vehicles present at any one time. ()s q,
Conclusions:
150 vehicles ') Town: Duxbury 1' Facility: Duxbury Beach Source: Aerial Photographs (July 5, 1987) Data: Population count of 4583 and average vehicle occupancy of 2.54
Conclusions:
1804 vehicles Town: Marshfield facility: Green Harbor Beach Source: Aerial Photographs (July 5, 1987) Data: Population count of 2609 and average vehicle occupancy of 2.54
Conclusions:
1027 Vehicles i i G I l E-15 Rev. 5 1
l l ..
._ . Parks & Recreation M
Towni .Marshfield' Facilitv: Brant Rock
. Source: Aerial Photographs (July 5, 1987)
.i Data':
2.54 Population. count of 1211'and' average vehicle occupancy of
- l.
Conclusions:
477 Vehicles l l i 1 l l i i l l l J l l l E-16 Rev. 5
~
l l O Boating 12wn: Plymouth
. Facility: Plymouth Marine,~Inc.
Source: . Brewer, Plymouth Marine, Inc. Data: Facility supports 90 boats in. slips and 24 boats in dry
' storage. On a good boating day, approximately 50% of member owned
. boats are in use.
Conclusion:
- 57. boats Town: Plymouth i Facility: Plymouth Yacht Club Source: Steward, Plymouth Yacht Club Data: Facility supports 150 boats in moorings. .On a good boating
.. day, approximately 75~ member. owned boats are.in use.
Conclusion:
75-boats
- Town: Plymouth Facility: . Town Moorings Source: Plymouth Harbor Master Data: There are a total of 550 boats moored in Plymouth Harbor.
7 Calculations: 550 - 150 (boats moored at the Plymouth Yacht Club)
=<400. additional boats. j 400 x'.5.(cited by Plymouth Ma'rine, Inc.
an Plymouth Yacht Club) = 200 additional' boats. Conclu'sion: 200 boats Town: .. Plymouth-Facility: Town ramp at town wharf Source: . Aerial Photographs (July =5,-1987) Data: There are 131 vehicles.with boat trailers parked at the town wharf ramp' parking lot.
Conclusion:
131 boats Town: Kingston Facility: Town ramp'and moorings at River Street j Source: Kingston Harbor Master-j i Data: On'a good boating day, 200 boats launch from the River ; j Street area. i L
Conclusion:
200 boats l l- :r s L l l.s. , E-17 Rev. 5
\
l Boating 1 . 12Mn: Duxbury Facility: Duxbury Yacht Club Source: Waterfront. Master, Duxbury Yacht Club
- Rgag:
the town Facility supports 150 boats in moorings ramp at Matakeeset Court. and 150 boats using approximately 50% of member. owned boats are in good On a use. boating day, Calculations: 50% (150) = 75 boats launch from town ramp l Conclusign: 50% (150) = 75 boats launch from moorings 150 boats Igwn: Duxbury Facility: . Town ramp at Matakeeset Court Source: Duxbury Harbor Master Data: . There Court area. are a total of 500 boats moored in the Matakeeset Calculations: 500 - 150 (boats moored at Duxbury Yacht C1'ub) additional boats. 350 x .5 (cited by the Duxbury Yacht Club) ==175 350 additional boats.
Conclusion:
175 boats IEEn: Duxbury r- Facility: Remainder of Duxbury mooring sites j ]g-g
, Source: Duxbury Harbor Master 3 Data:
There are a total of 1500 boats moored,in Duxbury. Calculations: 1500 - 500
= 1000 additional . boats. (boats 1000 xmoored in Matakeeset Court area)
.5 (cited by the Duxbury Yacht Club) = 500 additional boats. i
Conclusion:
500 boats I T_om : Marshfield Facility: Taylor Marina Source: Manager, Taylor Marina Data: Facility supports 140 boats in slips. On a good boating day, approximately 50% of member owned boats are in use.
Conclusion:
70 boats ' f~)
'q_j . E-18 Rev, 5
l Boating v l I2Wn: Marshfield Facility: Town ramp and moorings at Brant Rock Source: Marshfield Harbor Master, aerial photographs (July 5, 1987). DalA: Aerial photographs reveal 80 vehicles with trailers parked ; at the Brant Rock town ramp parking lot and 110 boats present in '
-moorings. The Harbor Master reports 160 boats in moorings.
Calculations: 160 - 110 (boats launching from moorings) + 80
'(boats launching from.the town ramp) = 130 boats in use on a good boating: day.
Conclusion:
130 boats i 12Wn: Marshfield Facility: Green Harbor Yacht Club l Source: Manager, Green Harbor Yacht Club , Rang: On a good boating day, 10 boats are in use.
Conclusion:
10 boats Town: Marshfield Facility: Green Harbor Marina Source: Aerial photographs (July 5, 1987) - ( 's) RALA: 60 of the 110 slips at the Green Harbor Marina w're e vacated
' 3 on J'nly 5, 1987.
Conclusion:
60 boats J
'sm/ !
E-19 Rev. 5 l l-I'
f- Independence Mall ( Trip Generation Second Edition - 1979 Average Trip Rate per 1000 Square Feet for Shocoina Center 500,000 to 999,999 Gross Sauare Feet Enter Exit Time Period 7 AM - 9 AM 0.64 0.32 4 PM - 6 PM 1.23 1.29 Peak Hour 2.22 1.92 Traffic Impact Study - Proposed Independence Mall Direction Split of Vehicles Leaving Mall Direction (g Northbound 50 (_s/ ~ Eastbound 5 Southbound 45 I w, ('h V E-20 Rev. 5
Independence Mall Estimation of Parking Accumulation at Independence Mall Net Inflow Net Inflow Average Trip Rate per 1000 500,000 Parking Enter Exit so.ft. so.ft. Accum. Time Period 7 AM 0.64 0.32 0.32 160 160 8 AM 0.64 0.32 0.32 160 320 9 AM 0.64 0.32 0.32 160 480
- 10 AM 1.04 0.72 0.32 160 640 11 AM 1.43 1.12 0.31 155 795 12 PM 1.83 1.52 0.31 155 950
- 1 PM 2.22 1.92 0.30 150 '
1100 2 PM 1.89 1.71 0.18 90 1190 3 PM 1.56 1.50 0.06 30 1220 4 PM 1.23 1.29 -0.06 -30 1190 5 PM 1.23 1.29 -0.06 -30 1160 6 PM 1.23 1.29 -0.06 -30 1130 ( Flow rates between 9 AM and 12 PM and 2 PM and 4 PM are obtained } via interpolation.
- 1 PM is the assumed mid-day peak hour for the shopping center.
The estimated number of vehicles present in the Independence Mall parking lot is 1200 for the mid-day scenarios. This estimate was used for all scenarios. Discussion with the developers indicated l that they expected "most" of the shoppers at the mall to be area residents. Consequently, we propose that 0.6 x 1200 = 720 vehicles l are those of area residents, while 0.4 x 1200 = 480 vehicles belong to people who live outside of the EPZ. Assuming 2.54 persons per vehicle, there are an estimated 480 X 2.54 = 1219 day-trippers at the Independence Mall.. , 1 O E-21 End Rev. 5
O Appendix F - Telephone Survey Instrument O l 4 1 l O
Survey Instrument I . Hello, my name is ! and I'm working _ COL.1 Unused on a survey being made for [ insert marketing firm _,,,,,_00 L . 2 Unused namel designed to identify local travel patterns __00L.3 Unused in your area. The information obtained will be _ 00L.4 Unused I used in a traffic engineering study and in _._, COL.5 Unused
.. connection with the annual update of preparedness ,
plans for Pilgrim Station. i Egg COL. 1 I 1 Male 1 2 Female i i I?ffERVIEWER: ASK TO SPEAK TO THE HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD OR THE SPOUSE OF THE HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD. (Terminate call if not a residence) 1 DO NOT ASK I l 1. Record exchange number. COL. 1 1 224 2 585 3 746 4 747 5 866 l 6 934 ' l l
- 2. -In total, how many cars. or other vehicles COL...
are usually available to the household? 1 :si~ (DO NOT READ ANSWERS ) 2 **O 3 THREE 4 FOUR 5 FIVE 6 SIX 7 SEVDI . 8 EIGHT . ) 9 NINE OR MORE 0 ZERO (NONE) X REFUSED 3 How many people usually live in this household?. (DO NOT READ ANSWERS.) COL. 1 COL. 1 1 ONE 0 TEN r l 2 TWO 1 ELEVEN 3 THREE 2 TWELVE l I 4 FOUR 3 THIRTEEN l 5 FIVE 4 FOURTEEN l 6 SIX 5 FIFTEEN ! 7 SEVDi 6 SIXTEEN 8 EIGH"' 7 SEVENTEEN 9 NINE 9 EIGHTEEN 9 NINETEEN OR MORE X REFUSED l l-fn F-1 Rev. 5 i
- 4. How many children living in this f% household go to local public. COL. 1
;j V
private, or parochial schools? 0 ZERO 1 ONE (DO NOT READ ANSWERS.) 2 TWO 3 THREE 4 FOUR 5 FIVE j 6 SIX I 1 SEVEN 8 EIGHT 9 NINE OR MORE X REFUSED 4
- 5. How many summer vacation days and nights does the family generally Col.Li Col.li 0 ZERO DAYS 0 TEN DAYS spend away from home and outside 1 ONE DAY 1 11-15 DAYS Plymouth County? 2 TWO DAYS 2 16-20 DAYS "
3 THREE DAYS 3 21-30 DAYS 4 FOUR DAYS 4 OVER 30 DAYS 5 FIVE DAYS 5 REFUSED l 6 SIX DAYS ! 7 SEVEN DAYS 8 EIGHT DAYS l 9 NINE DAYS x DON T mow l l j i l C' O .
)
l 4 l "s\ m) F-2 Rev. 5
- 6. How many people in the household commute to a job, or to college. COL. E FKIP To O ZERO Q. 11 l
at least 4 times a week? 1 ONE Q. 7 2 TWO Q. 7 3 THREE Q. 7 4 FOUR OR MORE Q. 7 5 DON'T KNOW/ REFUSED Q. 11 INTERVIEWER: For each person identified in Question 6, ask Questions 7, 8, 9, and 10. l 7. Thinking about commuter #1, how does that person usually travel to work or college? (REPEAT QUESTION FOR EACH COMMtJTER.) Commuter el Commuter #2 Commuter #3 Commuter #4 Rail COL. E COL. 1 COL. 1 COL. E 1 1 1 1 Bus 2 2 2 2 Walk / Bicycle 3 3 3 3 f Driver Car / Van 4 4 4 4 Passenger Car / Van 5 5 5 5 Driver Carpool-3 or more people 6 6 6 6 Passenger Carpool-3 or more people 7 7 7 7 Taxi 8 8 8 8 i Refused 9 9 9 9
- 8. What is the name of the city, town or community in which Commuter #1 works or attends school? (REPEAT QUESTION FOR EACH COMMUTER.) (FILL IN ANSWER.)
COMMITTER #1 COMMUTER #2 COMMUTER #3 COMMUTER #4 ) Citf/ Town State City / Town State City / Town State City / Town State COL. R COL. M COL. D COL.21 COL.g COL.26 COL.E COL. M COL. H 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 COL. M COL.H COL. R , 0 0 0 0 i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ! 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 i 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 ; B 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 1 F-3 Rev. 5 L
~
9. How long would it take Conruter #1 to travel home from work or college? O (REPEAT QUESTION FOR EAC I COMMUTER.) COL.).), COMMtrrER #1 COL.li (DO NOT READ ANSWERS.) COL.M COMMWER #2 i 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS .1 46-50 MINUTES COL 21 2 6-10 MINUTES 1 5 MINWES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINWES 2 51-55 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56 - 1 HOUR 2 51-55 MINUTES 4 .16 20 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56 - 1 HOUR
" 4 OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 OVER 1 HOUR, BW 5 21 25 MINUTES LESS THAN 1 HOUR 5 21-25 MINUTES 6 26-30 MINUTES 15 MINUTES LESS THAN 1 HOUR 7 31-35 MINWES 6 26-30 MINUTES 15 MINUTES 1 t
5 BF! WEEN 1 HOUR 7 31-35 MINUTES
- 8. 36-40 MINUTES S BE1 WEEN 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES AND 1 8 36-40 MINWES 9 41-45 MINWES HOUR 30 MINUTES 16 MINWES AND 1 l 9 41-45 MINWES HOUR 30 MINWES 6' BETWEEN 1 HOUR (
6 BE1 WEEN 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES 31 MINUTES AND 1 ! 7 BETWEEN 1 HOUR HOUR 45 MINWES 46 MINUTES AND 7 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 2 HOURS 46 MINWES AND 2 HOURS 8 OVER 2 HOURS (SPECIFY 8 OVER 2 HOURS 9
) (SPECIFY ) )
9 0 ' O X DON'T KNOW/ REFUSED X DON'T KNOW/ REFUSED COMMUTER #3 l COL.1,7, COMMUTER 84 COL.lj, COL.),2 COL.iq 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINWES 2 51-55 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINWES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56 - 1 HOUR 4 16-20 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56 - 1 HOUR 4 OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 5 21-25 MINUTES LESS THAN 1 HOUR 6 26-30 MINUTES 5 21-25 MINUTES LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES I 6 26-30 MINUTES 7 31-35 MINUTES 15 MINWES 5 BE'!WEm 1 HOUR 7 31-35 MINUTES S BE1 WEEN 1 HOUR 8 36-40 MINUTES 16 MINUTES AND 1 9 41-45 MINUTES 8 36-40 MINUTES 16 MINW ES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES . 9 41-45 MINUTES HOUR 30 MINUTES 6 BF!WE M 1 HOUR 6 BE'! WEEN 1 HOUR [, 31 MINUTES AND 1 t HOUR 45 MINUTES 31 MINWES AND 1 j 7 BE1WEM 1 HOUR e HOUR 45 MINWES 46 MINUTES AND- 7 BE'! WEEN 1 HOUR 2 HOURS 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS 8 OVER 2 HOURS 8 OVER 2 HOURS (SPECIFY ) l (SPECIFY l 0 t 0 X DON'T WOW / REFUSED i X DON'T KNOW/ REFUSED 1 l l b F-4 o Rev. 5
r i 10. Approximately how long does it take Commuter #1 to complete preparation for leaving work l or college prior to starting the trip home? (REPEAT QUESTION FOR EACH COMMUTER.) (DO NOT j READ ANSWERS.) COMMUTER #1 COM*JTEP #2 COL.il COL.il COL.R COL.11 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINITTES l 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 2 6-10 MI!MES 3 11-15 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES j
' 3 56 - 1 HOUR 3 11-15 MItMES 3 56 - 1 HOUR 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 5 21-25 MINUTES LESS THAN 1 HOUR 5 21-25 MItMES 6 26-30 MINUTES LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES 6 26-30 MINUTES 15 MINUTES 7 31-35 MINWES 5 BE'NEEN 1 HOUR 7 31-35 MItMES l 8 36-40 MINUTES 5 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES AND 1 8 36-40 MINUTES 16 MINUTES AND 1 9 41-45 MINUTES HOUR 30 MINUTES 9 11-45 MItMES HOUR 30 MINUTES 6 BE'NEEN 1 HOUR 6 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES AND 1 31 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES HOUR 45 MI!MES 7 BENEEN 1 HOUR 7 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINtfrES AND 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS- 2 HOURS 8 OVER 2 HOURS 8 OVER 2 HOURS l (SPECIFY ) (SPECIFY )
9 9 0 0 X DON'T KNOW/ REFUSED X DON'T KNOW/ REFUSED l COiwiUTER #3 COMMUTEP e4 l COL.g COL,g j COL .12. 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINUTES COL.R 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINITTES 2 6-10 M!tMES 3 "1-15 MINUTES 3 56 - 1 HOUR 2 51-55 MItMES 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56 - 1 HOUR 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 5 21-25 MINUTES LESS THAN 1 HOUR 5 21-25 MINUTES 6 26-30 MINUTES LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES 6 26-30 MItMES 15 MINUTES 7 31-35 MINUTES 5 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 7 31-35 MINUTES 8 36-40 MINUTES 5 BETWE m 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES AND 1 8 36-40 MINUTES 16 MINUTES AND 1 9 41-45 MINUTES HOUR 30 MINUTES 9 41-45 MIfMES HOUR 30 MINUTES 6 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 6 BEWEEN 1 HOUR j 31 MINUTES AND 1 31 HINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES HOUR 45 MINUTES 7 BETWEW 1 HOUR 7 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES AND 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS 2 HOURS 8 OVER 2 HOURS 8 OVER 2 HOURS (SPECIFY ) (SPECIFY l 9 9 0 0 X DON'T KNOW/ REFUSED X DON'T KNOW/ REFUSED
- 11. When the commuters are away from home, is there COL.R a vehicle at home that is available for evacuation? 1 YES 2 NO 3 DON'T KNOW/ REFUSED l
F-5 Rev. 5 l
12. j~ How long would it take the family to pack clothing, secure the house, load the car, and complete preparations prior to evacuating the area? (DO NOT READ ANSWERS.) A COL.l.Q COL.11 1 LESS THAN 15 MINUTES 2 15-30 MINUTES 1 3 HOURS TO 3 HOURS 15 MINUTES 3 31-45 MINUTES 2 3 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 3 HOURS 30 MINUTES 4 46 MINtfrES - 1 HOUR 3 3 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 3 HOURS 45 MINUTES 5 1 HOUR TO 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES 4 3 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 4 HOURS 5 4 HOURS TO 4 HOURS 15 MINUTES 6 1 HOUR 16 MI!UTES TO 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES 7 1 HOUR 31 MINITTES TO 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES 6 4 HOURS 16 MINtTTES TO 4 HOURS 30 MINUTES 9 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 7 4 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 4 HOURS 45 MINUTES 8 4 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 5 HOURS 9 2 HOURS TO 2 HOURS 15 MINUTES 9 5 HOURS TO 5 HOURS 15 MINUTES 0 2 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 30 MINS. 0 5 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 5 HOURS 30 MINUTES X 2 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 45 MINS. X 5 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 5 HOURS 45 MINUTES Y 2 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 3 HOURS Y 5 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 6 HOURS COL.11 1 DON'T KNOW 12A. How long would it take you to clear 6-8* of snow to move the car from the driveway or curb to begin the evacuation trip? Assume the roads are passable. (DO NOT READ RESPONSES.) COL.il COL .13, 1 LESS THAN 15 MINUTES 1 MORE THAN 3 HOURS 2 15-30 MINUTES 2 DON'T KNOW 3 31-45 MINUTES 4 46 MINUTES - 1 HOUR , 5 1 HOUR TO 1 HOUR 15 MINtJTES 6 1 HOUR 16 MI!ATTES TO 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES 7 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES TO 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES 8 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 9 2 HOURS TO 2 HOURS 15 MINUTES 0 2 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 30 MINS. X 2 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 45 MINS. Y 2 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 3 HOURS (h j Thank y'u o very much. (TELEPHONE ICMBER CALLED) l l l l l i g h F-6 End Rev. 5
t O APPENDIX G TABULATION OF TELEPHONE SURVEY DATA O .. O
PERSONS PER HOUSEHOLD VS. CARS PER HOUSEHOLD PERSONS PER NUMBER OF CARS PER HOUSEHOLD HOUSEHOLD 0 1 2 3 4 TOTAL 1 Total 7 50 8 1 0 66 Pct. 10.6 75.8 12.1 1.5 0 100 l 2 Total 1 61 100 8 6 176 i Pct. 0.6 34.7 56.8 4.5 3.4 100 3 Total 0 17 64 27 4 112 ! Pet. 0 15.2 57.1 24.1 3.6 100 l 4 Total 0 16 82 20 5 123 Pct. 0 13 66.7 16.3 l 4.1 100 5 Total 1 8 45 17 10 81 Pct. 1.2 9.9 55.6 21 12.3 100 6 Total 0 0 -
~ Pct. 0 1
3.8 18 69.2 5 19.2 2 7.7 26 100
)
7 Total 0 2 2 0 5 9 Pet. 0 22.2 22.2 0 55.6 100 8 Total 0 0 1 1 1 3 Pet. 0 0 33.3 33.3 33.3 100 9 Total 0 0 1 1 0 2 Pct. 0 0 50 50 0 100 10 Total 0 0 0 0 1 1 Pet. 0 0 0 0 100 100 0 G-1 Rev. 5
PERSONS PER HOUSEHOLD VS. SCHOOL CHILDREN PER HOUSEHOLD PERSONS PER NUMBER OF SCHOOL CHILDREN PER HOUSEHOLD HOUSEHOLD 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 TOTAL ) 1 Total 66 0 0 0 0 0 0 66 Pct. 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 l l 2 Total 169 7 7 7 7 7 7 211 Pct. 80.1 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 100 3 Total 60 45 7 0 0 0 0 112 Pct. 53.6 40.2 6.3 0 0 0 0 100 4 Total 35 27 57 4 0 0 0 123 Pet. 28.5 22 46.3 3.3 0 0 0 100 5 Total 14 15 21 30 1 0 0 81 Pct. 17.3 18.5 25.9 37 1.2 0 0 100 () 6 Total Pct. 2 7.7 2 3 9 10 0 0 26 7.7 11.5 34.6 38.5 0 0 100 7 Total 1 1 2 2 1 2 0 9 Pct. 11.1 11.1 22.2 22.2 11.1 22.2 0 100 8 Total 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 3 Pet. 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 100 9 Total 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 2 Pet. 0 0 0 50 0 0 50 100 10 Total 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 Pct. 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 100 O G-2 Rev. 5
PERSONS PER HOUSEBOLD VS. OUT OF AREA VACATIONERS PER HOUSEHOLD PERSONS PER NUMBER OF DAYS PER SUMMER
, BOUSEHOLD 0 1-5 6-10 11-15 16+ . TOTAL 1 Total 28 3 6 11 12 60 Pct. 46.7 5 10 18.3 20 100 2 Total 56 17 31 31 22 157 Pct. 35.7 10.8 19.7 19.7 14 100 _
3 Total 25 16 25 29 11 106 Pct. 23.6 15.1 23.6 27.4 10.4 100 2 4 Total 28 11 27 33 17 116 Pct. 24.1 9.5 23.3 28.4 14.7 100 5 Total 23 11 21 17 5 77 Pct. 29.9 14.3 27.3 22.1 6.5 100 10 0 6 l Total Pct. 40 3 12 7 28 2 8 3 12 25 100 7 Total 2 3 2 0 2 9 Pct. 22.2 33.3 22.2 0 22.2 100 8 Total 1 0 2 0 0 3 Pct. 33.3 0 66.7 0 0 100 9 Total 2 0 0 0 0 2 Pct. 100 0 0 0 0 100 m. 10 Total 0 0 0 1 0 1 Pct. 0 0 0 100 0 100 0 G-3 Rev. 5 l
PERSONS PER HOUSEHOLD VS. COMNUTERS PER HOUSEHOLD PERSONS PER NUMBER OF COMMUTERS PER HOUSEHOLD HOUSEHOLD 0 1 2 3 4 TOTAL 1 Total 40 25 1 0 0 66 Pct. 60.6 37.9 1.5 0 0 100 2 Total 63 52 61 0 0 176 Pct. 35.8 29.5 34.7 0 0 100 I 3 Total 9 53 40 10 0 112 Pet. 8 47.3 35.7 8.9 0 100 t 4 Total 7 64 37 12 3 123 1 Pct. 5.7 52 30.1 9.8 2.4 100 l 5 Total 9 30 28 7 6 80 Pct. 11.3 37.5 35 8.8 7.5 100 () 6 Total 2 11 8 3 2 26 Pct. 7.7 42.3 30.8 11.5 7.7 100 7 Total 0 3 3 0 2 8 Pct. 0 37.5 37.5 0 25 100 8 Total 0 2 1 0 0 3 Pct. 0 66.7 33.3 0 0 100 9 Total 0 1 0 1 0 2 Pct. 0 50 0 50 0 100 10 Total 0 0 0 0 1 1 Percent 0 0 0 0 100 100 O G-4 Rev. 5
COBOfDTER TRAVEL TIMES BETWEEN WORK (SCHOOL) AND HOME TIME RANGE NUMBER OF COIOfDTERS PERCENT OF ,. (IN MINUTES) COMMUTERS 1-5 88 11.7 6-10 99 13.1 11-15 82 10.9 16-20 81 10.8 21-25 28 3.7 26-30 64 8.5 31-35 25 3.3 36-40 33 4.4 41-45 68 9 46-50 15 2 51-55 4 0.5 _56-60 68 9 61-75 27 3.6 76-90 32 4.2 91-105 5 0.7 106-120 6 0.8 121+ 3 0.4 Varies 0 0 Unknown 25 3.3 Totals 753 100 l 1 1 O G-5 Rev. 5 l
l O COMMUTER TRAVEL TIMES BETWEEN WORK (SCHOOL) AND HOME FOR HOUSEHOLDS WITH 1 CAR (S)
,. TIME RANGE NUMBER OF COMMUTERS PERCENT OF i
1 (IN MINUTES) COMMUTERS 1-5 16 16.2 6-10 12 12.1 1 11-15 10 10.1 ! l 16-20 9 9.1 21-25 7 7.1 26-30 13 13.1 31-35 1 1 36-40 4 4 41-45 3 3 46-50 4 4 51-55 0 0 ) 56-60 4 4 61-75 6 6.1 76-90 4 4 91-105 1 1 8 106-120 0 0 121+ 0 0 Varies 0 0 Unknown 5 5.1 Totals 99 100 1 j v G-6 Rev. 5 l
f-- COMMUTER TRAVEL TIMES BETWEEN WORK (SCHOOL) AND HOME FOR HOUSEHOLDS WITH 2 CAR (S) TIME RANGE NUMBER OF PERCENT OF (IN MINUTES) COMMUTERS COMMUTERS 1-5 49 11.5 6-10 49 11.5 11-15 44 10.3 16-20 47 11.0 ! 21-25 15 3.5 26-30 36 8.4 31-35 15 3.5 36-40 21 4.9 41-45 41 9.6 46-50 10 2.3
.. 51-55 1 0.2 56-60 44 10.3 61-75 14 3.3 76-90 16 3.7 91-105 1 0.2 106-120 5 1.2 i 121+ 3 0.7 Varies 0 0.0 Unknown 16 3.7 o-7 Re . 5 1 I
l
l i 1 O COMMUTER TRAVEL TIMES BETWEEN WORK (SCHOOL) AND HOME FOR HOUSEHOLDS WITH 3 CAR (S) TIME RANGE NUMBER OF PERCEBFF OF (IN MINUTES) COMMUTERS COMMUTERS 1-5 15 10.1 6-10 29 19.6 11-15 15 10.1 16-20 17 11.5 21-25 5 3.4 26-30 11 7.4 31'-35 4 2.7 36-40 4 2.7 41-45 13 8.8 46-50 0 0.0 Os 51-55 3 2. 0 ' j 56-60 16 10.8 61-75 4 2.7 76-90 7 4.7 91-105 1 0.7 ' 106-120 *
. 0.7 121+ 3 0.0 Varies 0 0.0 Unknown 3 2.0 A
U G-8 Rev. 5
( i COBOtUTER TRAVEL TIMES BETWEEN WORK (SCHOOL) AND HOME [
) FOR HOUSEHOLDS WITH 4 CAR (S)
)
TIME RANGE NUMBER OF PERCENT OF (IN MINUTES) COMMUTERS COMMUTERS 1-5 8 10.3 6-10 9 11.5 ! 11-15 13 16.7 16-20 8 10.3 21-25 1 1.3 i l 26-30 4 5.1 l 31-35 5 6.4 l 36-40 4 5.1 41-45 10 12.8 46-20 1 1.3 () .51-55 56-60 0 0.0 4 5.1 61-75 4 5.1 76-90 4 5.1 91-105 2 2.6 106-120 0 0.0 121+ 0 0.0 Varies 0 0.0 Unknown 1 1.3 1 O G-9 Rev. 5 l l
I l CARS PER HOUSEHOLD VS COMMUTERS PER HOUSEHOLD O CARS PER NUMBER OF COMMUTERS PER HOUSEHOLD HOUSEHOLD 0 1 2 3 4 TOTAL
.i 0 TOTAL: 7 2 0 0 0 9 Pct. 77.8 22.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 1 Total 76 64 13 2 0 155 Pet. 49.0 41.3 8.4 1.3 0.0 100.0 2 Total 39 151 119 10 2 321 i
Pet. 12.1 47.0 37.1 3.1 0.6 100.0 3 Total 6 19 36 16 3 80 Pct. 7.5 23.8 45.0 20.0 3.8 100.0 4 Total 2 5 11 5 9 32 PCT. 6.3 15.6 34.4 15.6 28.1 100.0 . I 1 G-10 Rev. 5 l l l
MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM COBOSUTER TRAVEL TIMES FOR HOUSEHOLDS WITH 1 COMMUTER (S) ~ MINIMUM TIME RANGE MAXIMUM TIME RANGE TIME RANGE NUMBER OF PERCENT OF NUMBER OF PERCENT OF (IN COBOSUTERS COMMUTERS COMMUTERS CONKUTERS MImUTES) 1-5 26 10.8 26 10.8 6-10 20 8.3 20 8.3 11-15 26 10.8 26 10.8 16-20 26 10.8 26 10.8 21-25 11 4.6 11 4.6 26-30 25 10.4 25 10.4 31-35 7 2.9 7 2.9 36-40 19 7.9 19 7.9 4,1-45 23 9.5 23 9.5 46-50 6 2.5 6 2.5 51-55 1 0.4 1 0.4 s 56-60 22 9.1 22 9.1 61-75 6 2.5 6 2.5 76-90 11 4.6 11 4.6 91-105 2 0.8 2 0.8 106-120 4 1.7 4 1.7 121+ 0 0.0 0 0.0 Varies 0 0.0 0 0.0 ; Unknown 6 2.5 6 2.5 i O G-11 Rev. 5
MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM COMMUTER TRAVEL TIMES FOR HOUSEHOLDS WITH 2 COMMUTER (S) .~ MINIMUM TIME RANGE MAXIMUM TIME RANGE TIME RANGE NUMBER OF PERCENT OF NUMBER OF PERCENT OF (IN COMMUTERS COMMUTERS COMMUTERS COMMUTERS MINUTES) 1-5 40 11.2 11 3.1 6-10 33 9.2 11 3.1 11-15 24 6.7 10 2.6 16-20 27 7.6 14 3.9 21-25 6 1.7 7 2.0 26-30 12 3.4 14 3.9 31-35 6 1.7 7 2.0 t 36-40 4 1.1 8 2.2 41-45 8 2.2 20 5.6 46-50 1 0.3 5 1.4 51-55 0 0.0 3 0.3 l 56-60 8 2.2 26 7.3 l 61-75 3 0.8 11 3.1 76-90 5 1.4 13 3.6 91-105 0 0.0 2 0.6 106-120 0 0.0 2 0.6 121+ 0 0.0 2 0.6 Varies 0 0.0 0 0.0 Unknown 2 0.6 13 3.6 O G-12 Rev. 5
MINIMUM AND MAEIMUM COMMUTER TRAVEL TIMES FOR HOUSEHOLDS WITH 3 COMMUTER (S) MINIMUM TIME RANGE MAXIMUM TIME RANGE TIME RANGE NUMBER OF PERCENT OF NUMBER OF PERCENT OF (IN COMMUTERS COMMUTERS COMMUTERS COMMUTERS MINUTES) 1-5 8 8.3 0 0.0 6-10 10 10.4 2 2.1 11-15 6 6.3 3 3.1 16-20 2 2.1 5 6.2 21-25 2 2.1 0 0.0 26-30 2 2.1 0 0.0 31-35 0 0.0 1 1.0 36-40 0 0.0 1 1.0 1 41-45 2 2.1 7 7.3 46-50 0 0.0 1 1.0 51-55 0 0.0 0 0.0 1 56-60 1 1.0 7 7.3 61-75 0 0.0 4 4.2 l 76-90 0 0.0 0 0.0 91-105 0 0.0 0 0.0 106-120 0 0.0 0 0.0 121+ 0 0.0 1 1.0 Varies 0 0.0 0 0.0 Unknown 0 0.0 1 1.0 [ ( G-13 Rev. 5
MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM COMMUTER TRAVEL TIMES FOR HOUSEHOLDS WITH 4 COMMUTER (S) MINIMUM TIME RANGE MAXIMUM TIME RANGE TIME RANGE NUMBER OF PERCENT OF NUMBER OF PERCENT OF (IN COMMUTERS COMMUTERS COMMUTERS COMMUTERS MINUTES) 1-5 1 1.8 0 0.0 6-10 7 12.5 2 3.6 11-15 3 5.4 0 0.0 16-20 2 3.6 1 1.8 21-25 0 0.0 1 1.3 26-30 0 0.0 2 3.6 31-35 0 0.0 1 1.3 36-40 0 0.0 0 0.0 41-45 1 1.8 1 1.8 46-50 0 0.0 0 0.0 , i 51-55 0 0.0 0 0.0 l 56-60 0 0.0 0 0.0 61-75 0 0.0 2 3.6 76-90 0 0.0 2 3.6 , 1 91-105 0 0.0 1 1.3 106-120 0 0.0 0 0.0 121+ 0 0.0 0 0.0 Unknown 0 0.0 1 1.8 G-14 Rev. 5
L COBOfUTER PREPARATION TIMES FOR LEAVING WORK (SCHOOL) ,. TIME RANGE NU1!BER OF PERCENT OF (IN MINUTES) COIOfUTERS COMMUTERS 1-5 368 49.1 6-10 104 13.9 11-15 61 8.1 16-20 19 2.5 i 21-25 3 0.4 i 26-30 55 7.3 31-35 3 0.4 36-40 2 0.3 41-45 16 2.1 46-50 2 0.3 51-55 0 0.0 ) 56-60 12 1.6 61-75 3 0.4 76-90 0 0.0 1 91-105 7 0.9 106-120 1 0.1 121+ 1 0.1 Varies 0 0.0 Unknown 93 12.4 G-15 Rev. 5
r~ HOME PACKING TIMES NEEDED TO PREPARE FOR DEPARTURE l (s
. TIME RANGE NUMBER OF PERCENT OF (IN MINUTES) HOUSEHOLDS HOUSEHOLDS 1-15 152 25.3 16-30 160 26.7 31-45 38 6.3 46-60 61 10.2 61-75 37 6.2 1
76-90 7 1.2 91-105 1 0.2 ' l 106-120 14 2.3 121-135 20 3.3 136-150 0 0.0
, (~'\ 151-165 2 0.3 \~sl , E 166-180 4 0.7 181-195 3 0.5 196-210 0 0.0 211-225 0 0.0 226-240 3 0.5 241-255 2 0.3 256-270 2 0.3 271-285 0 0.0 286-300 0 0.0 301-315 1 0.2 316-330 0 0.0 331-345 1 0.2 346-360 5 0.8 Unknown 87 14.5 O-G-16 Rev. 5
Q} CARS PER HOUSEHOLD VS SCHOOL CHILDREN PER HOUSEHOLD l CARS PER NUMBER OF SCHOOL CHILDREN PER HOUSEHOLD HOUSEHOLD 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 TOTAL 0 Total 9 0 0 0__ 0 0 0 9 Pct. 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 1 Total 126 10 11 7 0 1 0 155 Pct. 81.3 6.5 7.1 4.5 0.0 0.6 0.0 100.0 2 Total 160 61 63 28 8 0 1 321 Pct. 49.8 19.0 19.6 8.7 2.5 0.0 0.0 100.0 3 Total 34 20 12 11 3 0 0 80 ! Pct. 42.5 25.0 15.0 13.8 3.8 0.0 0.0 100.0 4 Total 18 7 4 3 2 1 0 35
. Pct. 51.4 20.0 11.4 8.6 5.7 2.9 0.0 100.0 I
I 1 l l l [) V G-17 Rev. 5
SNOW CLEARANCE TIMES l l TIME RANGE NUMBER OF PERCENT OF (IN MINUTES) HOUSEHOLDS HOUSEHOLDS I 1-15 149 24.8 16-30 113 18.8 31-45 48 8.0 46-60 54 9.0 l 61-75 51 8.5 76-90 25 4.2 91-105 9 1.5 l 106-120 9 1.5 l 121-135 14 2.3 136-1L0 2 0.3
; 151-165 2 0.3 1 166-180 10 1.7
, 181-195 34 5.7 l Unknown 80 13.3 Number of Commuters Working within EPZ = 309 l Total Number of Commuters = 753 O G-18 Rev. 5
O SURVEY SCALE FACTORS SURVEY SAMPLE 1999 EST. SURVEY TOWN POPULATION POPULATION SCAIA FALTR Plymouth 1,163 50,262 43.22 Kingston 244 11,235 46.05 Carver 121 6,411 52.98 Duxbury 396 14,768 37.29 O G-19 End Rev. 5
APPENDIX H Census Data , I l O J-t f
O 1990 Census Town Population Within EPZ Plymouth 45,608 Kingston 9,045 Carver (58%) 6,142 i I Duxbury 14,168 Marshfield (8%) 1,722 4 r l O . i' 1 H-1 Rev, 5 l
r
/% Plymouth 1s )' PS. HOUSEHOLDS (1)
UNIVERSE: Households Total................................ ........ 15,889 1 person..................................... 3,174 2 persons.................................... 4,858 3 persons.................................... 2,837 4 persons.................................... 3,073 5 persons.....~............................... 1,386 l t' persons.................................... 423 ! 7 or more persons............................ 138 P49. MEANS OF TRANSPORTATION TO WORK (13) UNIVERSE: Workers 16 years and over car, truck, or van: Drove alone............................ ... 17,285 Carpooled....... .......................... 2,411 Public transportation: . Bus or trolley bus............... ......... 436 l Streetcar or trolley car................... 0 l Subway or elevated......................... 43 Railroad. ................................. 5 Ferryboat ................................. O Taxicab. ................................ O Motorcyc, ................................. O Bicycle. .................................. 20 .
. Walked... j
,\ ........ ..........................
. Other meat.s............................... .
598 184
- j.
- Worked at home............................... 537 l'
P53. PRIVATE VEHICLE OCCUPANCY (8) UNIVERSE: Workers.16. years and over Car, truck, or van: Drove alone................................ 17,285 In 2-person carpool........................ 1,993 In 3-person carpool..................... .. 273 In 4-person carpool........................ 47 In 5-person carpool........................ 19 In 6-person carpool........................ 5 In 7-or-more person carpool................ 74 other means......... .............. ....... . 1,823 P79. CLASS OF WORKER (7) UNIVERSE: Employed persons 16 years and over [ Private for. profit. wage and salary workers. . . 15,973 Private not-for-profit wage and salary 1 workers..................................... 1,473 Local-government workers. ................... 1,899 l State government workers........ ............ 641 l Federal government workers................... 458 Self-employed. workers........................ 1,534 Unpaid family workers........................ 43
/m\-
\v/
i H-2 Rev. 5 l
P77. INDUSTRY (17) UNIVERSE: Employed persons 16 years and over Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries (000-039)................................... 364 Mining (040-059)............................. Construction (060-099)....................... 16
- 1,781 Manufacturing, nondurable goods (100-229).. . 1,180 Manufacturing, durable goods (230-399)....... 1,304 Transportation (400-439)..................... 1,002 Communications and other public utilities (440-499)................................... 900 Wholesale trade (500-579)....... ............ 911 Retail trade (580-699)......................, 4,411 Finance, insurance, and real estate I
-(700-720)...................................
Business and repair services 1,962 (721-760)....... 911 Personal services (761-799).................. 648 Entertainment and recreation services (800-811)............................. ..... 301 Professional and related services (812-899): Health services (812-840).................. 2,259 Educational services (842-860). ........... 1,490 Other professional and related services (841, 861-899)............................ 1,388 Public administration (900-939).............. 1,093
)
{ P78. OCCUPATION (13) l i UNIVERSE: Employed persons 16 years and over O' Managerial and professional specialty
; occupations (000-202):
3 l Executive, administrative, and managerial occupations (000-042).......... 2,783 Professional specialty occupations (043-202)................................. 3,081 Technical, sales, and administrative support occupations ' (203-402) : Technicians and related support occupations (203-242)..................... 821 Sales occupations (243-302)................ 3,326 Administrative support occupations, including clerical (303-402).. ........... 3,692 Service occupations (403-472): Private household occupations (403-412)... 45 Protective service occupations (413-432).. 577 Service occupations, except protective and household (433-472). ............. . . 2,485 i Farming, forestry, and fishing occupations : i (473-502)......................... ...... ... 327 Precision production, craft, and repair occupations (503-702)............... ....... 2,497 Operators, fabricators, and laborers (703-902): Machine operators, assemblers, and inspectors (703-802)..............-........ 771 Transportation and material moving occupations (803-863)............. ....... 877 Handlers, equipment cleaners, helpers,
, and laborers (864-902)... ................ 639 H-3 Rev. 5 l
L 1 ll 1. Kingston l km - PS. HOUSEHOLDS (l) UNIVERSE: Households Total........................................ 3,245 i . , l 1 person........................ 2 persons.................................... 644 1,055 ' 3 persons.................. 4 persons...................................
........ 570 5 persons.................................... 596 4 6 persons...................................
286 69 1 7 or more persons....................... .... 25 l P49. ' MEANS OF TRANSPORTATION TO WORK (13) i UNIVERSE: Workers 16 years and over Car, truct, or van: I i l Drcta alone......... ................ .. . 3,725 1 i Carpooled.................................. 504 ' Public transportation: Bus or trolley bus......................... 127 Streetcar or trolley car................... 7
- Subway or elevated......................... 6 i
Railroad................................... 0
-Ferryboat.................................. O Taxicab..................................... O Motorcycle.................................. O Bicycle..................................... O
<-~s Walked...................................... 49
(\- ') Other means................................. t Worke'd at home..............................
. 66 l 170 1
P53. PRIVATE VEHICLE OCCUPANCY (8) UNIVERSE: Workers 16 years and over l Car, truck, or van: Drove'alone................................ 3,725 l In 2-person carpool....................... 412 In 3-person carpool........................ 45 In 4-person carpool........................ 8 In 5-person carpool..................... .. 0 l In 6-person carpool...................... . O In 7-or-more person carpool................ 39 Other means............. .................... 425 P79. CLASS OF WORKER (7) ! UNIVERSE: Employed persons 16 years and over l Private for profit wage and salary workers.. 3,369 Private not-for-profit wage and salary l' workers................................... . 334 Local government workers......... ........... 438 State government workers..................... 79 Federal government workers................... 98 Self-employed workers........................ 371 Unpaid-family workers........................ 15 i [m
\ '
H-4 Rev. 5 1 I l
F I l. P77. INDUSTRY (17)
/'~N UNIVERSE: Employed persons 16 years and over t )
. Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries (000-039).......... .................... ....
95 Mining (040-059)........................ Construction (060-099).......................
.... 5 409 i .-
Manufacturing, nondurable goods (100-229).... 285 Manufacturing, durable goods (230-399)....... 353 l
; Transportation (400-439).....................
Communications and other public utilities 172 (440-499)................................... Wholesale trade 222 (500-579).................... 234 Retail trade (580-699)...................... 972 Finance, insurance, and real estate (700-720)................................... Business and repair services (721-760)....... 379 207 Personal services (761-799)................. 101 l Entertainment and recreation services (800-811)............... ................... 28 Professional and related services (812-899): l Health services (812-840).................. 373 l Educational services (842-860)......... ... 322 Other professional and related services (841, 861-899)......... ....... .......... 301 Public administration (900-939)............ . 246 P78. OCCUPATION (13) UNIVERSE: Employed persons 16 years an6 over
/~ t k_',/ Managerial and' professional specialty
. occupations (000-202):
Executive, administrative, and 1 managerial occupations (000-042).......... 656 i Professional cpecialty occupations (043-202)................................. Technical, sales, and administrative 510 support occupations (203-402): : Technicians and related support i occupations (203-242).................... Sales occupations (243-302).. ......... 139
.. 603 Administrative support occupations, i including clerical (303-402)..............
763 Service occupations (403-472): Private household occupations (403-412).... 23 i Protective service occupations (413-432)... 136 Service occupations, except protective and household (433-472)........... . ..... 547 Farming, forestry, and fishing occupations (473-502)................... ........ ...... 80 Precision production, craft, and repair occupations (503-702)........... .......... 701 Operators, fabricators, and laborers (703-902): Machine operators, assemblers, and inspectors (703-802) .................... 199 Transportation and material moving occupations (803-863)..................... 183 Handlers, equipment cleaners, helpers, and laborers (864-902)..................... 164 H-5 Rev. 5
I t Carver PS. HOUSEHOLDS (1) UNIVERSE: Households Total.....................-................... 3,551 1 person..................................... 2 persons...................... 602 3 persons............................. 1,061 576-4 persons............................. 5 persons.............................. .....
..... 739 6 persons.............................
429 7 or more persons............................ 117 27 P49. MEANS OF TRANSPORTATION TO WORX(13) UNIVERSE: Workers 16 years and over Car, truck, or van: Drove alone.............................. 4.029 Carpoo1ed.................................. . 452 Public transportation: . Bus or trolley bus........................ 26 Streetcar or trolley car................... O Subway or elevated......................... 5 Railroad................................... O Ferryboat................................. Taxicab..................................... Motorcycle................................. O O O Bicycle..................................... 0 . Walked.................................... 18 L
\,, . Other means.................................
' Worked at home..............................
.. 42
)
115 P53. PRIVATE VEHICLE OCCUPANCY (8) UNIVERSE: Workers 16 years and over Car, truck, or van: Drove alone................................ 4.029 In 2-person carpool........................ 393 In:3-person carpool........................ 27 In 4-person carpool........ ............... 23 In 5-person carpocl........................ O In 6-person carpool........................ O In 7-or-more person carpool................ 9 Other means.............,.................... 206 P79. CLASS OF WORKER (7) UNIVERSE: Employed persons 16 years and over Private for profit wage and salary workers... 3.472 Private not-for-profit wage and salary workers..................................... 253 Local government workers..................... 450 State government workers..................... 183 Federal government workers................... 121 Self-employed workers........................ 252 Unpaid family workers........................ 9 e i
\
H-6 Rev. 5
)
P77 : INDUSTRY (17) UNIVERSE: Employed persons 16 years and over ) j Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries (000-039)................................. 176 Mining (040-059)............................ Construction 25 (060-099)....................... 318 Manufacturing, nondurable goods (100-229)... 287 Manufacturing, durable goods (230-399) . . . . . . . 420 Transportation (400-439)..................... 236 Communications and other public utilities (440-499)................................... l 202 l Wholesale trade (500-579)................... 122 Retail trade (580-699)...................... 945 Finance, insurance, and real estate (700-720)................................... Business and repair services (721-760)..... 365 228 1 Personal services (761-799) . . ............... 142 Entertainment and recreation services (800-811)................................... 23 ' Professional and related services (812-899): Health services (812-840).................. 409 Educational services (842-860)............. 353 Other professional and related services l (841, 861-899)............................ 225 Public administration (900-939).............. 264 P78. OCCUPATION (13 ) UNIVERSE: Employed persons 16 years anil over Managerial and professional specialty .
)
, occupations (000-202):
Executive, adZpi hrative, and 1 managerial occupations (000-042).......... 596 Professional specialty occupations (043-202)................................. 389 Technical, sales, and administrative support occupations (203-402): Technicians and related support occupations (203-242)..................... Sales occupations (243-302)................ 258 507 Administrative support occupations, including clerical (303-402)............. 928 Service occupations (403-472): Private household occupations (403-412).... 6 Protece.ive service occupations (413-432).. 121 Service occupations, except protective and household (4 3 3 -4 72 ) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 565 Farming, forestry, and fishing occupations (473-502)............... ... ............... 90 Precision production, craft, and repair i occupations (503-702)....................... 710 Operators, fabricators, and laborers (703-902): Machine operators, assemblers, and inspectors (703-802)...................... 255 Transportation and material moving , occupations (803-863)..................... Handlers. equipment cleaners, helpers, 179 { i and laborers (864-902).................... 136 l H-7 Rev. 5
n 1 I l l. I o Duxbury . -(/ PS. HOUSEHOLDS (l) UNIVERSE: Households'
~
Total........................................ 4,643 l' person.............................. ...... 707 2 persons............................. 3 persons......................................... 1,336 870 4 persons.............................. J 5 persons....................................... 1,064 478 j 6 persons................................. or more persons............................ 158 7 ... 30 4 P49. MEANS OF TRANSPORTATION TO WORK (13) l UNIVERSE: Workers 16 years and ovet Car, truck, or van: Drove alone............. .................. 5,377 Carpooled. 4
............................... 538 Public transportation:
' Bus or trolley bus......................... 165 Streetcar or trolley car................... O Subway or elevated.......................... 62 Railroad................................... O rerryboat.................................. O Taxicab..................................... 0 Motorcycle.................................. 19 Bicycle.................................... 35 f
rs Walked...................................... other 103
- g means................................. -
84 },
- Worked at home..............................
367 P53. . PRIVATE VEHICLE OCCUPANCY (8) UNIVERSE: Workers 16 years and over car,' truck, or van:
' Drove alone................................ 5,377 In 2-person carpool........................ 465 In 3-person carpool........................ 28 In 4-person carpoo1........................ O In 5-person carpool........................ .0 In 6-person carpool..................... .. O In 7-or-more person carpool... ...... ..... 45 Other means................ ................. 835 P79. CLASS OF WORKER (7)
UNIVERSE: Employed persons 16 years and over Private for profit wage and salary workers... 4,607 Private not-for-profit wage and salary workers..................................... 586 Local government workers...... .............. 718 State government workers..................... 123 Fedecal government workers................... 64 Self-employed workers........................ 699
-Unpaid family workers. 3...................... 62 l-p)..
\-
H Rev. 5 t l 1 l l^ l 1:
F l-P77. INDUSTRY (17) UNIVERSE: Employed persons 16 years and over Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries (000-039)................................... 124 Mining (040-059)............................. 0
, construction (060-099)....................... 402
-Manufacturing, nondurable goods (200-229).... 385 Manufacturing, durable goods (230-399)....... 380 Transportation (400-439)..................... 192 Communications and other public utilities (440-499)................................... 191 Wholesale trade (500-579).................. 354 Retail trade (580-699)....................... 1,068 Finance, insurance, and real estate (700-720)................................... 959 Business and repair services (721-760)....... -364 i Personal services (761-799).................. 128 l
Entertainment and recreation services (800-811)........................,.......... 186 Professional and related services (812-899): Health services (812-840).................. 551 Educational services (842-860)............. 789 Other professional and related services (841, 861-899).................. ......... 574 Public administration (900-939).............. 212 P78. OCCUPATION (13) UNIVERSE: Employed persons 16 years and over (f Managerial and professional specialty
/ occupations (000-202):
Executive, administrative, and managerial occupations (000-042).......... 1,526 Professional specialty occupations (043-202)................................. 1,488 Technical, sales, and administrative support occupations (203-402) :- Technicians and related support occupations (203-242)..................... 165 Sales occupations (243-302)................ 1,390 Administrative support occupations, including clerical (303-402). ............ 899 Service occupations (403-472): Private household occupations (403-412).... 16 Protective service occupations (413-432) . . 117 Service occupations, except protective and household (433-472)................... 339 Farming, forestry, and fishing occupations (473-502)................................... 128 Precision production, craft, and repair occupations (503-702)....................... 481 Operators, fabricators, and laborers (703-902): Machine operators, assemblers, and inspectors (703-802)...................... 142 Transportation and material moving occupations (803-863)...... .............. 111 Handlers, equipment cleaners, helpers,
g and laborers (864-902).... .. ....... .. 57
%)
H-9 Rev. 5 1 .
rY Marshfield U PS. HOUSEHOLDS (1) UNIVERSE: Households Total........................................ 7,530 1 person..................................... 1,442 2 persons.................................... 2,138 3 persons..................................... 1,422 4 persons.................................... 1,502 5 persons.................................. .. 727 6 persons......................... .......... 233 7 or more persons............................ 66 P49. MEANS OF TRANSPORTATION TO WORK (13) UNIVERSE: Workers 16 years and over Car, truck, or van: Drove alone.................... ........... 9,241 Carpooled............................. .. 1,305 Public transportation: . Bus or trolley bus............. .......... 140 Streetcar or trolley car.............. .. . O Subway or elevated..... .............. ... 79 Railroad................................... O Ferryboat.................................. 41 1 Taxicab..................................... 5 Motorcycle.................................. 0 l Bicycle..................................... 26 . I
-[D Walked...................................... 140 \ssl . Other means................................. '
18
){ 1
' Worked at home.............................. 371 j PS3. l PRIVATE VEHICLE OCCUPANCY (8) :
UNIVERSE: Workers 16 years and over
]
Car, truck, or van: Drove alone................................ 9,241 In 2-person carpool........................ 1,101 In 3-person carpool............ ........... 74 In 4-person carpool........................ 39 ltn 5-person carpool......................... 13 In 6-person carpool. .................. .. 14 In 7-or-more person carpool................ 64 Other means.................................. 820 ! i P79. CLASS OF WORKER (7) l j UNIVERSE: Employed persons 16 years and over ! Private for profit wage and salary w?rkers.... 8,123 Private not-for-profit wage and salary ' workers......... ............................ 683 , Local government workers..................... 1,012 l State government workers..................... 414 Federal government workers................... 335 Self-employed workers........................ 919 1 Unpaid family workers........................ 26 1 a t
\v H-10 Rev. 5 l
1 rg P77. INDUSTRY (17) [ UNIVERSE: Employed persons 16 years and over Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries (000-039)................................... 184 Mining (040-059)............................. O
' Construction (060-099)..................... . 7 8 *-
Manufacturing, nondurable goods (100-229).... SL6 Manufacturing, durable goods (230-399)..... . 630 Transportation (4 0 0-4 3 9) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 538 Communications and other public utilities (440-499).................................. 452 Wholesale trade (500-579).................... 708 Retail trade (580-699)....................... 2,167 Finance, insurance, and real estate (700-720)................................... 1,268 Business and repair services (721-760)....... 489 Personal services (761-799)..... ............ 219 Entertainment and recreation services (800-811)................................... 97 Professional and related services (812-899): Health services (812-840).................. 1,026 Educational services (842-860).. .......... 905 Other professional and related services (841, 861-899)............................ 859 Public administration (900-939).............. C31 P78. OCCUPATION (13) e-~s UNIVERSE: Employed persons 16 years and over ( ) Managerial and professional specialty e occup'ations (000-202):
. I' Executive. administrative, and managerial occupations (000-042).......... 1,955 Professional specialty occupations (043-202)................................. 2,016 Technical, sales, and administrative support occupations (203-402) :
Technicians and related support occupations (203-242)..................... 416 Sales occupations (243-302)..... ..... ... 1,937 Administrative support occupations, including clerical (303-402).... .. ... 1,792 Service occupations (403-472): Private household occupations (403-412).... 13 Protective service occupations (413-432)... 261 Service occupations, except protective and household (433-472)................... 953 Farming, forestry, and fishing occupations (473-502)......................... .......... 149 Precision production, craft, and repair occupations (503-702).... ...... ........... 1,150 Operators, fabricators, and laborers (703-902): Machine operators, assemblers, and inspectors (703-802)...................... 298 Transportation and material moving occupations (803-863) .......... ........ 285 Handlers, equipment c',eeners, helpers,
/N and laborers (864-902. ..... ..... . .... 287 V) H-11 Rev. 5 End M% . - - - - _ _ . _ - - _ _ - - _ _ - - _ _ _ _ - -
I APPENDIX I TRAFFIC AND ACCESS CONTROL l l S*GMARY j SY TOWN , i I l i l 3 1 a Rev. 5
sl n 3 4
/ soo 8 - 4 4 4 4 3
- 4 4 4 4 3 5 eri
- - S T w ct t cna P M K C D M R E P P P A W-O B A S
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\
PLYMOUTH , 8
+
- .:-1 Rev. 5
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{ l ['} Table I-P-2. Allocation of Access Control Points to Towns l V TOWN: Plymouth 1 l ACCESS CONTROL POINT ACTIVATED FOR FOLLOWING REGIONS: l P-AT-13A 1 through 9, 12 through 22 P-AT-13B 18, 19 P-AT-14B 15, 16, 17 P-AT-15B 8, 9 P-AT-16A 1 through 9, 12, 13, 14, 20, 21, 22 l P-AT-16B 15, 16, 17, 18, 19 ! P-AT-17 3, 4, 5, 8, 9, 18, 21 P-AT-18 3, 4, 5, 15, 16, 17, 18, 21 f P-AT-19A 1 through 9, 12 through 18, 20, 21, 22 l P-AT-19B 19 P-AT-20 All regions except 10 & 11 P-AT-21A 1 through 9, 12 through 18, 20,' 21, 22 P-AT-21B 19 P-AT-22A 1 through 9, 12 through 18, 20, 21, 22 P-AT-22B 19 P-AT-23A 3, 4, 5, 12 through 18, 21 P-AT-23B 2, 7
- P-AT-24 1, 4, 5, 6, 12 through 18, 19, 20 ,
P-AT-25 All regions [s\-] s .P-AT-26 2, 3, 10, 11, 21
}:
'P-AT-27 All regions P-A-28 1, 4, 5, 6, 12 through 18, 19, 20 P-A-29 1, 4, 5, 6, 12 through 18, 19, 20 P-A-30 1, 4, 5, 5, 12 through 18, 19, 20 P-A-31 1, 4, 5, 6, 12 through 18, 19, 20 P-A-32 1, 4, 5, 6, 12 through 18, 19, 20 P-A-33 1, 4, 5, 6, 12 through 18, 19, 20 P-A-34 1, 4, 5, 6, 12 through 18, 19, 20 P-A-35 1, 4, 5, 6, 12 through 18, 19, 20 P-A-36A 2, 7 P-A-36B 4, 5, 12 through 18 P-A-37 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 12 through 18, 19, 20 P-A-38 1, 2, 6, ~, 19, 20 P-A-39 2, 3, 10, 11, 21 P-A-40 2, 3, 10, 11, 21 P-A-41 2, 3, 10, 11, 21 P-A-42 2, 3, 10, 11, 21 P-A-43 2, 3, 10, 11, 21 P-A-44 2, 3, 10, 11, 21 P-A-45 2, 3, 21 P-A-46 4, 5, 12 through 18 P-A-47 4, 5, 12 through 18 g3 P-A-48 4, 5, 12 through 18 I-P-8 Rev. 5
Table I-P-2. Allocation of Access Control Points to Towns (-w) (conc.)
' TOWN: Plymouth ACCESS CONTROL POINT ACTIVATED FOR FOLLOWING REGIONS:
P-A-49 3, 4, 5, 15, 16, 17, 18, 21 P-A-50 3, 4, 5, 15, 16, 17, 18, 21 P-A-51 3, 4, 5, 15, 16, 17, 18, 21 P-A-52' 3, 4, 5, 8, 9, 18, 21 P-A-53 3, 4, 5, 8, 9, 18, 21 P-A-54 3, 4, 5, 8, 9, 18, 21 P-A-55 3, 4, 5, 8, 9, 18, 21 P-A-56 7, 8, 9, 22 P-A-57 7, 8, 9, 22 P-A-58 7, 8, 9, 22 P-A-59A 8, 9 , P-A-59B 15, 16, 17 P-A-60 8, 9 P-A-61 8, 9 P-A-62 15, 16, 17 j i P-A-63 15, 16, 17 P-A-64 15, 16, 17 r~ P-A-65 15, 16, 17 (,}j P-A-6.6 15, 16, 17 y
/P-A-67 15, 16, 17 P-A-68 15, 16, 17 '
P-A-69 18 i l l V) ( I-P-9 Rev. 5
R l l 4 s O 'x e I I
--J 3 i
i . I l l t I i [ l l 1 l n I l ! Cherry Street / \ 1 l Prince Street kM y Y A b__ - - - 3 -l' m I
'3 L c y i I '
{
!cc o f%i s
' 'l.
l l l : I l ' i
! Route j O 4 '
Location: Route 3A & Cherry Street (Plymouth) i Manpower / Equipment: Priority: 3 I 1 Traffic Guide ! 3 Traffic Cones j KEY , j
> Movement f acilitat eo -
I i i 5l Movement discourageo '
! l 1
Q Traffic guide
. i Q Traffic cone !
I i X Traffic barricade I t i l l i Facilitate northbound traffic and traffic turning west on Cherry Street. Discourage all southbound traffic on Route 3A. O . l e i. , . : e e - ie . sai I is__-. -- - . . i l Rev. 5
( 7,..u,
. n.
T_ -~_ ^ ^ G t: -d Road N *x o
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O I T I' r .omi rumace Road Soutn W eoow ao o ll ,
/ f Cxo [ j 4
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'i Manpower / Equipment: '-
Feceral Furnace Road. South Meacow Roaa anc l i Seven Hills Rd. (Plvmouth). Pn.onty: 2 Traffic Guides ! 3 6 Traffic Cones i KEY l 2 Traffic Bamcaces I
> Movement f acilitatec j
>' Movement ciscouragea I g Traffic guice 1 O 7fic c "'
X Traffic bamcace i l l Facilitate westcouna traffic en South Meacow Rd. and Seven Hills Rd. Facilitate traffic along soutncouna Feceral Furnace Rd. Discourage turn onto northbouna Feaeral Furnace Rd.
- J.':g;i'_-'
r_ ,,,, m .....,
.u I Rev. 5
1
-gr>.ee, ;= = _=~_- =3 -; m \
. .o: -
O T e 3
\. -J \
l I I Obery Street j T l 4
)g, . A Route 3A
-=C' P\
YA -
\
i , iOX O i I l I l ! l I O \
'. i l Location: ! Manpower / Equipment: '
Obery Street & Route 3A (PlymoutN , i p 1 Traffic Guide 2 Tra f fic Cones i KEY i l 1 Traffle Barricade I
> Movement f acilitated , ,
i i l > l Movement discouraged I i j l g Traffic guide I
.l j I Q Traffic cone l !
i X Traffic barricace f u Facilitate westbound traffic. Discourage southbound traffic. Encourage northbound traffic on Route 3A to use westbound Obery Street. O 1
,i
- n-12 Rev. 5
i 7 s . ,, 7 =
. m .-
^ s. .a 'w:
= = y 2; a i O ! I s a very lig h t
_Y O Rocky l m 'O Hill
\\ T C Road v#
T k
'N Route ,
O \ l 3A o" l i o: i N ( ' I Location
- Rocky Hill Roaa & Route 3A (P!ymouth) Manpower / Equipment: '
i Priority: 1 1 Traffic Guide 6 Traffic Cones KEY i
? Movement f acilitated i 5l Movement discouraged '
g Traffic guide Q Traffle cone ; I I i X Traffic barricade ' Facilitate northbound traffic on Route 3A and trat'ic turning north onto Route 3A from Rocky Hill Road. Discourage eastbound traffic onto Rocky Hill Road and southbound traffic on Route 3A. i==. _ m...o . .m t J Rev. 5
I t
@ ^?iJ ,@
- r. . . . ,
_~*_~f 2 N . j l h "J Robbins Hill d
- Road i
[W/ <
/ i l
I 1 m Whitehorse l Road i l O 4 y > Location: l Manpower / Equipment: ' Whitehorse Roac & Robbins Hill Reac (P!ymouth) i 1 Traffle Guide 3 Traffic Corles KEY j
> Movement f a cilltated l O l Movement discouraged I !
Q Traffic guide Q Traffic cone ! X Traffic barricace I I 1 1 Facilitate southbound traffle on Whitehorse Road. Discourage northbound traffic on Robbins Hill Road. O
~
- -P-14 Rev. 5
l I man T ,2,a
'; e y _ - _ => Wp l
t a i ' x O g <
}
PNPS ! l N i V
=
Access i i Route o Road 1 3A x l i O { N M C C
~E
\
Briarwoo Road M
-0
'M \ N O
t Ro to 3A k PNPS Access (P!yrnouth) p , 1 Traffic Guide J 9 Traffic Cones i
! KEY i 3 Traffic Barricades
> Movement f acilitated j i
5l Movement discouraged i
@ Traitic guide !
Q Tra f fic cone
; l ' i X Traffic barricade l
l i Discourage all turns onto PNPS Access except for emergency l vehicles. Facilitate southbound traffic on Route 3A. Il r __.___.-;_,- i
- :-15 Rev. 5 l
~
I l I "_'j 5= i _ L =[7 O T s v x >
\ /
O Whitehorse V O Beaver Dam be%' g, jT Road '!
'N 7
"'?/
gn Route ( 3A -) 1 I
\
Location: Manpower / Equipment: 4 Whitenorse Roaa & Route 3A (Plymoutn) Priority: 1 1 Traffic Guide 6 Traffic Cones l KEY i
! > Movement facilitated i Ol Movement discouraged i
j g Traffic guide i i Q Traffic cone X Traffic barricade i Facilitate westbound traffic on Whitehorse Road. Direct all I traffic to westbound Beaver Dam Road. Discourage northbound traffic on Route 3A and eastbound traffic on Whitehorse Road.
=_ _,
, i Rev. 5
c . 7e i,.. - .,. I _. _# : 7_=_e
.- - ou 3 3 I
eJ % l
./
Taylor Avenue i Manomet ' ox Q Point Road
$ )
A N sd 'k h h ( 1 o 3 Location: Manpower / Equipment: Taylor Avenue & Manomet Point Roao _ l IPlvmouth) ' Priority: 1 1 Traffic Guide 6 Traffic Conee KEY i 3 Traffic Barricades l > Movement f a cilitatec l f D l Movement discouraged I t i i l @ Traffic guide , i
>l i i i
Q Traffle cone l l l i l X Tra f fic barricade ! ! j
)
I Facilitate southbound traffic on Manomet Point Road. l Discourage westbound traffic onto Taylor Av0nue. O l - l
,...=....
i.____..,_.2 i 4 t 7_ p _1 -, Rev. 5
z e % c,
- s. .a
,m
.+1
;_=_,e
.3 O T
+ (unpaved) %
I j Sandwich
! Road
).
i i i j 's tg3 CO I ' K4 vi A - - 9 3 A@
= _ ,M n Es O n
Y tNi
\
Beaver Dam Road , l l
,1 l
l O 4
)
Od newen Road & Beaver Dam Roaa (Plymouth) p , 1 Traffic Guide i _ $ Traffic Cones l KEY j
> Movement f a cilitat ed l
{ b ;' Movement discouraged l l
@ Traffic guide s
Q Traffic cone X
. T ra f fic barricade { !
I l I
\
Facilitate southbound and westbound traffic. Discourage northbound and eastbound traffic. ! a - ja a :s a to i ,,,e l l _ I P-18 Rev. 5
m,,_.., ._
= . f. . . , := =
, I' O T t
Ship Pond Road N (unpaved) m , G ' K ggn Li
~- n l \l ;
Y l 1 i l l Old Sandwich Road (unpaved) l O 4
/ >
Location: ! Manpower / Equipment: ' Old Sandwien Road & Shio Ponc Roac (Piymoutn) l
, 1 Traffic Guide i
3 Traffic Cones i KEY l I ' Movement f a cilitated j l i l > l Movement discouraged ! l
@ Traffic guide !
Q Traffic cone , i X Tra f fic barricade ' Facilitate westbound traffic on Ship Pond Road. Discourage eastbound traffic on Ship Pond Road. O
' l ? ?.*1 ' .
_.. . " '"" _ ! ;_p_19 Rev. 5
l l i
!!!"] ';. l=": i o y e_J >
S I x0
/
/
E O Old < Sandwich ' / Road N C, I,T (unpaved) g State Route (3A) very light . k ^] I Location: Manpower / Equipment: O!d Sanowien Road & Route 3A (Plymoutn) I p 1 Traffic Guide j 6 Traffic Cones KEY i {
> Movement f actittateo i
> l Movement discouraged ,
i i i g Traffic guide ' I l Q Traffic cone l t X Traffic barric ade ' l
==.
Facilitate southbound traffic. Discourage northbound traffic on Route 3A and westbound traffic on Old Sandwich Road. O
, _ . . . . _ . - _ ~ . , _
Rev. 5
T i ". i' . I: y='f=~~2 f 0 ~ T J
/ /
i '
/
/
/ ,
/
, l ,!
Route l Herring i
/ 3A
)
Pond o xg , Road 3 f
,, m 8
/5 g
'\ Route
\
3A O , i Location: Route 3A & Hernng Pona Roao (Plymoutn) Manpower / Equipment: p 1 Traffic Guide 4 Traffic Cones KEY i ! 2 Traffic Barricadee
& Movement facilitated i ,
5 l Movement dlacouraged !
@ Traffic guide !
l
+
Q Traffic cone i X Traffic barricade i l l Facilitate southbound traffic on Route 3A and turns onto westbound Herring Pond Road. Discourage northbound traffic on Route 3A. O !
==. -
- -21 Rev. 5
.\m .- -
= =w== :=
;== ==== =~_= = _
_i : ' " ':
~~
! i
_L _L = f.__ =.@1 l l O T
\.
eJ % i l Cherry Street o* l
!J f '
1
/ O( f i
,) w Route O 4 1
\
_ Location: Route 3 & Cherry Street (Plymouth) Exit 7 Manpower / Equipment: =9 I 11 1 Traffic Guide 1 2 Traffic Cones I 1 KEY ' 7 Traf fic Barricades O Movement f a cilitated O'j M ovement elscouraged i l
@ Traffic guide l Q Traffic cone X Traffic barricade
' l
-, Facilitate entry onto northbound Route 3. Discourage entry onto southbound Route 3.
I O
,\ .. . . .
,, . . . g, je-:ea. . .., ?
l
- -P-22 Rev. 5
w na & - . s
- _:, -_c e y
- , s') \
m j O rM. l 1? e _J y ! 4 Cherry Street 4 1
; 6 .
4' Y *( Route 3 r 0 4 Location: ' Route 3 & Cherry Street (Plymouth), Exit 7 , Manpower / Equipment: I p 1 Trattle Guide 2 Traffic Cones i KEY I I 7 Traffic Barricadeo
& Movement f acilitated j 5' Movement i discouraged !
f g T ra f fir., guide I Q Traffic cone i X Tra f fic barricade i Discourage entry onto southbound and northbound Route 3. O t a= . ,
.- a .
., u Rev. 5
l i I ! ! ". ') .'(L 5 = j'. S = _1 tr % l
\
Route i 80
\
l
\
2 Av m o hJ ri X O Route 44 J f l Location: i Manpower / Equipment: '
! Route 44 & Route 80 (Plymoutn) '
l ' i f Priority: 3 1 Traffic Guide
! 2 Traffic Cones KEY i
l ! 1 Traffic Barricade O Movement f a cilitated l ; i ?' Movement i discouraged I i g Traffic guide I l Q Traffic cone l ! l l X Traffic barricade l ! 1 Facilitate westbound traffic on Route 44 and northbound
; traffic on Route 80. Discourage eastbound traffic on Route ; 44.
O 1 I, ar e e a t 'ee enal I
]us'_e_ . _ _ _ . _ . _ . . . .i k l
- -P-24 Rev. 5
.m -
T v . v :,
'; + ~=_~=_ [% I
- m. s .: - = . -
.: s l O
l _._
- __..._.......,..,,...._ _ ,,. _ _ ......___.--. _q Route
\ \ 80
\\
\ \
\
O x w
/
/ j gh i Ew2
/
_J k V O ao#i- 44
> i i I Location: I Manpower / Equipment:
Route 44 & Route 80 (Plymouth) l t Priority: 3 1 Traffic Guide 2 Traffic Cones
' KEY ! 1 Traffic Barricade
> Movement f a cilitated j )
D' iMovement discouraged ' I
@ Tra f fic guida I
,l Q Traffic cone ! I I
X Tra f fic barricsae [_ I Facilitate westbound traffic on Route 44. Discourage northbound traffic on Route 80. O 'l
,..c...,... ... ,,, .
l
,___.___ . _ _ . _ , . .. i _a 25 Rev. 5
T t .". ') .E L T = :a' - ~ = 51 9 f O X I fr q> Route - 44
-[
1 s
'w_ g l N- m bo O o
>l NC I s Carver Road
/
v , i l Seven{ l Hills Road O h flocation: Route 44 & Seven Hills Road (Plymouth) Manpower / Equipment: ' 2 Traffic Guides I 8 Traffic Cones KEY !
- I Tra'fic Barricadeo I
Movement f a cilitat ed , j l 5' Movement discouraged
, l g Traffic guide l l'
Q Traffic cone ' j X i Tra f fic barricade ! f ! l Facilitate westbound traffic on Route 44 and movements onto l l l Westbound Route 44 from Seven Hills Roads and Carver Road. Discourage eastbound movement on Route .t4 and Carver Road. O i s j .; . . . . . . .. _
,, .,...,i i Rev. 5
i i in resa "s. . . , ..
'as
?
- = .=:=-a2
; =%a I
l O X' ( w)-
/
x_ 4 !" e/ e l N- g @ o _ g ox A Carver Road i N_ 1 0 xo Seven Hills Road
\ _
Location: Route 44 & Seven Hills Road (Plymoutnl Manpower / Equipment: 1
! Priority: 1 2 Traffic Guldee
) ._
6 Traffic Cones
,l i KEY
! ' i I
2 Traffic Barricades 5- Movement f acilitated i l 7' Movement t discouraged j g Traffic guide I Q Traffic cone l X Traffic barricade ! j Facilitate westbound traffic on Route 44 and movements onto westbound Route 44 from Seven Hills Roads and Carver Rcsd. Discourage eastbound movement on Carver Road, and southbound movement on Seven Hills Road.
...y.......
..u.
i
. .:-z'i Rev. 5
Point No. P-AT-16a ; (bv i 3 ROUTE
)
6 3 l
, EXIT 6A
( ROUTE 44 4, W 1 O
- +x x 4 x 3Hx 4 6 UJ " /
v t I g WESTERLY X ROAD X l X ONE WAY j a i
, Manpower / Equipment:
f Route 3 and Route 44 (Exit 6A) Plymouth Priority: 1 l 2 TraHic Guide 2 Traffic Cones KEY 10 TraMic Bamcade
-- Movement facilitated
- l Movement discouraged G3 Traffic guide O Traffic cone X Traf#i c barncade
Description:
}
Facilitate entry onto northbound Route 3. Discourage entry onto southbound Route 3 0 . P 28 Rev. 5
Point No. P-AT-16b l hV h ROUTE 3 EXIT 6A ROUTE 44 4 4 (3 O N>xyx T 16 U {f( WESTERLY ROAD k o ONE WAY , Route 3 and Route 44 (Exit 6A) Plymouth Manpower / Equipment: f Priority: 1 l 2 Traffic Guide 2 Traffic Cones KEY 9 Traffic Barricade
- Movement facilitated l l
*i Movement discouraged e Traffic guide :
C Tra'fic cone X Traffic barncace
Description:
l Facilitate entry onto northbound Route 3. Discourage entry onto eastbound Route 44 0 I-P-29 Rev. 5
'Im L & v e, w...s
~ .%
..a: .
T i, ^= . 9 O l -. . , , , ._._. _ . wIh J Route 3A
).
Route 44 k y' K 2 V" M A w j} W ' O N s X 4 K^T O ox o
\
O < > i e llocation: I Manpower / Equipment-Route 3A & Route 44 (Plymoutn) wt l 4 Priority: 2 1 Traffic Guide 1, a 4 Traffic Cones j! KEY i 2 Traffic Barricades i!
> Movement f a cilitated ,
h' 5 l Movement discouraged I g Traffic guido l I Q Traffic cone X Tra f fic barricade r l I l l Facilitate northbound traffic turning west on Route 44.
; Discourage all southbound and eastbour.d traffic.
I O ' i,
..-t W
I *,1* 1*.*. ' ' ' .. _ .__ . I I i
- -r-30 Rev.5 l
- ~. - .
- ._~^:
O 'W e s J Westerly Road l h [ 1 A
\
Route 3
/ 3 g '
o A gA s 1 Summer Street CX O j / \ L
\ l O ( '
Location: ! Manpowerdouipment: Summer Street & Westeny Reac (Plymoutn) t Pnonty: 1 Traffic Guide 3 l 4 Traffic Conas q KEY i 2 Traffic Bamcades y Movement f actistatec
? l Movement ciscourageo
} g Traffic guide l
l O 7* " "" X Traffic bamcace
~
l Descnotion: E '
; Facilitate westcouna trzffic and traffic turning onto northbound Westert<
Roac. Discouraga eastcounc and southbound traffic. j . . _ _ .. . _ _ - - . - _ . . _ _ _ _ - - .
; r-; ; _ .., .n" ' . ; :-r- n I '
Rev. 5
.IT ' 7.9
'5 0. 5=k =$ 5i O
T\ a t "7 stre7 1
, .1 l
i V
- o ~
A Long Pond X
/ \ \
Road / O * ' Location: Route 3 & Long Pond Road (Plymoutn), Exit 5 i t Manp1wer/ Equipment: ' g7 Priority: 2 2 Traffic Guides 5 Traffic Cones l KEY ! 1 Traffic Barricade
? Movement f a cilitated 7j Movement ciscourageo Q Tralfic guide Q Traffic cono i l X Traffic barricade I Facilitate traffic entering southbound and northbound Route
- 3. Discourage eastbound trattic on South Street.
O - 6= _.
- -?-32 Rev. 5
p 2. ,,
.... .1 = x: = _ - s.
- 5. m i l )
i I 5 6 . . . . . , . . 3 Route South sJ
\
3 S tre e t/ M) ' oO
- A A
\ &
. N T
Long Pond 1 Road / l hj tl .I ! Location: 1 Route 3 & Long Pond Road (Plymouth) Exit 5 ! Manpower / Equipment: ' l l
.l \
Priority: 2 2 Traffic Guldeo 2 Traffic Cones KEY l 1 Tra f fic Barricade
- Movement f a cilitated O l Movement discouraged g Traffic guide ;
Q Traffic cone i
! X Traffic barricade '
I Facilitate traffic entering southbound Route 3. Olscourage trattic entering northbound Route 3.
' I _.. . . .. '
f*J1'i' * ' 5_ _., . _ '"' I i. I-P-33 Rev. 5
__ _ =... . _ . . . _. ,, , , , , .
?p % :, :, ? :. == _ ?' o
.o... ..a: -
. _ . =. . - 1 o
/ ' -
tJ % I AbO Route V V O 3 O O O \ O O ! 8 O O O V V
\Ot8 'O e
g
..M" ,
( I s Road }
);
Location: Route 3 & "M" Road (Plymouth) Manpower / Equipment: 1 Trattic Guide 20 Traffic Cones KEY l
>- Movement factiltated 5j Movement discouraged
@ Trattle guide Q Traffic cone X Trettic barricade i
Discourage traffic from exiting Route 2 southbound onto "M" Road o . 1 - *. i,....:....,,
- ,,, i
.___.-- ,_ _ .m a
-P-34 Rev. 5
p i ., ,. : _ . . -- a < q
.o...., .: ,_,.sm :
I O l'vl MO x0 0 A x0 Sandwich Road
- N' A
i Al W 3 T l l 1 "M" Road
~
pg \ l A s e b M' cao k Sanowich Road (Plymouth)
, 1 Traffic Guide 4 Traffic Cones KEY ! 8 Traffic Barricades
> Movement f acilitatea j b l Movement discouraged '
@ Traffic guide Q Traffic cone X Traffic barricade i l
Facilitate westbound traffic on "M" Road and traffic turning west onto "M" Road from Sandwich Road. Discourage eastbound traffic onto "M" Road and traffic on Sandwich Road. O _
- m. . , _ _ . . w :-p-r>
Rev. 5
)
I !!".2 'UI: I'=1~=$$D l' A Y g A Sandwich Road e A 4 ' _ A 3
"M" Road i
& l i
s - l
)A l Location: Manpower / Equipment: '
"M* Road & Sanowich Road (Plymoutn) ,
p 1 Traffic Guide 1 Traffic Cone KEY ! 8 Traffic Barricades
> Movement f a cilitat ed 7 l Movement discouraged !
(' Q Traffic guide Q Traffic cone X Traffic barricade Discourage eastbound and westbound traffic on "M" Road. O gy -- . . . . , _ . _
\ e t
_o -36 Rev. 5
_ITITd "
'[L [ = _I' 7 = 2.$ T o
x ps Route \ ) r 3A South g "M" Ro x C x Route . 3A North (Warren Avenue) O q 9 Ilocation: ! - Manpower / Equipment: '
'M* Roaa & Route 3A (Plymoutn)
Priority: 2 2 Traffic Guideo 4 Traffic Cones KEY I 2 Traffic Barricades
> Movement f a cilitated I 1
{ > l Movement discouraged ' I g Traffic guide l Q Traffic cone I X Traffic br.s trica de I Facilitate westbcund traffic on "M" Road. Discourage southbound traffic on Route 3A. a lh*?? "i_ __ .m. - -l ' I-P-37 Rev. 5
.;# m :: mn
.h a.% ..o ..wa ? = A: . =s&2 p Route \ 3 3A South "M Road
..y .e ggy x x
Route O Og > 3A North (Warren Avenue) O o ' cad k Route 3A (Ptymouth) p 2 Traffic Guldes 8 Traffle Cones KEY 4 Traffic Barricades i
> Movement f a cilitated l .
5 l Movement discouraged i
! I Traffic guide
@ i Q Traffic cone l X Traffic barricade ! l l
l Discourage southDound traffic on Route 3A and westbound traffic on "M" Road. ! O i l wm m_ ra . , , i t Rev. 5
It2 EL ?=17=23$
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