ML19262C294
| ML19262C294 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Pilgrim |
| Issue date: | 02/04/1980 |
| From: | HMM ASSOCIATES, INC. |
| To: | |
| Shared Package | |
| ML19262C293 | List: |
| References | |
| NUDOCS 8002080629 | |
| Download: ML19262C294 (87) | |
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EVACUATION TIMES ESTIMATES FOR AREAS NEAR PILGRIM STATION llMM Document No.79-048 Revised February 4, 1980 Prepared for:
BOSTON EDISON COMPANY 800 Boylston Street Boston, Massachusetts 02199 I __
Prepared by:
!9k4 24 HMM ASSOCIATES, INC.
One Forbes Road Lexington, Massachusetts 02173 googo%o639
TABLE OF CONTENTS Page 1.
INTRODUCTION 1
2.
POPULATION AND AUTOMOBILE DATA USED FOR CLEAR TIME 3
ESTIMATES 3.
THE EVACUATION NETWORK
.9 4.
EVACUATION MODEL CASES 16 5.
ESTIMATES OF EVACUATION TIMES 25 6.
ANCILLARY EVACUATION DATA 28 APPENDIX A POPULATION AND AUTOMOBILE DATA APPENDIX B TRAVEL TIMES APPENDIX C Tile NETSIM MODEL APPENDIX D MODEL CASE AUTOMOBILE ASSIGNMENTS APPENDIX E TURNING MOVEMENTS f944 242
ii
1.
INTRODUCTION In a letter dated November 29, 1979, the Emergency Prepar-edness Task Group of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issued a request for information regarding estimates of evacua-tion times for various areas around nuclear power reactors.
The NRC request was sent to all licensees authorized to operate a nuclear power reactor, and to all applicants for a license to operate a power reactor (FSAR docketed).
The submission of evacuation data is being requested on an accelerated time scale so that NRC can identify those instances in which unusual evac-uation constraints exist and special planning measures should be considered.
The request relates primarily to the actual evacuation t,im e for both " normal" and " adverse" weather conditions.
In addition, however, NRC has requested each operator to provide ancillary information on four related topics.
First, NRC has asked for estimates of the total time to evacuate special facilities, such as hospitals.
Second, NRC has directed the operators to provide estimates of the time required to notify the population at risk.
Third, the time required for confirma-tion of evacuation has been requested.
Fourth, and last, NRC has asked each operator to identify the alternative protective
- actions, such as sheltering, which may be implemented where "special evacuation problems" are identified.
As a response to this request, Boston Edison Company has sponsored the calculation of evacuation times associated with several evacuation scenarios.
These calculations were under-taken by HMM Associates, Inc.,
of Lexington, Massachusetts, using available population data, and NETSIM, a computer-based, teal-time, traffic simulation model.
The ancillary evacuation data were obtained during interviews with the personnel of the Massachusetts Civil Defense Agency (MCDA).
MCDA il 'he State agency with primary responsibilities for emergency preparedness.
1944 243 -
This report has been compiled to document the responses to the NRC request.
In subsequent sections, the reports describes:
o Population and Automobile Data Used for Clear Time Estimates (Section 2.0);
o The Evacuation Network (Section 3.0);
o Evacuation Model Cases (Section 4.0);
o Estimates of Evacuation Times (Section 5.0); and o
Ancillary Evacuation Data (Section 6.0).
4 o
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[944 244
2.
POPULATION AND AUTOMOBILE DATA USED FOR CLEAR TIME ESTIMATES In order to estimate the evacuation times, two sets of population data are required.
The first set of population data is the total 1980 peak population within the 10-mile plume exposure emergency planning zone (EPZ).
For the Pilgrim EPZ, the total peak population consists of three elements-perman-ent population, seasonal (summer) population, and peak tran-sient population (visitors, daily employees, etc.).
The second set of data is the population with*n the 10-mile EPZ during the
" adverse weather" conditions.
Adverse weather for Pilgrim Sta-tion is assumed to be a
traffic-constricting snowfall.*
=
Accordingly, the adverse weather population consists of perman-ent population and the transient winter population.
2.1 Sources of Data The lata used for the various 1980 population estimates come frma two sources:.1) the Pilgrim evacuation reports done i
in 1975 and 1979, and 2) the Pilgrim Station FSAR dated 1974.
A detailed description of this data and supportive material used in the preparation of this report is presented in Appendix A.
_5 E
2.2 Data Derived for Use in NETSIM E
Four 10-mile radius population distributions have been
]
derived from the best available 1980 population data.
These are roses for the peak 1980 permanent population; the peak 1980 g
easonal population; the peak 1980 transient population; and E
l9A4 245
- In such a
- case, it is assumed that evacuation would be impeded, but not p evented.
This is an " adverse case" rather
'h"" " "" '"'-
E E
I I
the 1980 estimated winter transient population.
Tb process used to derive these roses, and the roses themselves, are des-cribed in Appendix A.
In order to estimate evacuation times, the four sets of population data were converted to the numbers of automobiles.
It was assumed that permanent residents woulo evacuate with 2.5 people per automobile.
Automobile occupancy factors of 3.0 and 4.0 were used for the transient and seasonal populations, respectively.
The resultant roses displaying the numbers of automobiles to be evacuated from the EPZ are shown in Fig-ures 2-1, 2-2, 2-3, and 2-4 for the permanent, seasonal, peak transient, and winter transient cases, respectively.
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3.
EVACUATION NETWORK 3.1 Study Area In order to estimate evacuation times, an evaluation was made of the traffic network likely to be used by departing per-sons.
Key roadways within a radius of about 10 miles f rom Pil-grim Station were examined.
The 10-mile study area was selec-ted to reflect the suggested size of the NRC plume exposure emergency planning zone (EPZ).
The 10-mile EPZ used as the study area is shown in Figure 3-1.
The area includes all but a small piece of the Town of Plymouth; most of Kingston; about half the land areas of Duxbury and Carver; and smaller portions of the towns of Bourne, Wareham, Plympton, and Marshfield.
Four sources of information were used in compiling des-criptions of the evacuation network:
- 1) the evacuatitn network described in the Massachusetts Emrgency Response Plan of Decem-ber, 1979.
- 2) existing 5-mile network information prepared in 1975; 3) the results of a-10-mile update of the 1975 data undertaken by llMM during the summer of 1979; and 4) data from a subsequent 10-mile field survey in December 1979.
The most recent survey resulted in the generation of data suitable for calculating evacuation times using a computer model for simula-tion of various evacuation scenarios within the 10-mile EPZ.
3.2 Network Definition The transportation network elements considered in the evacuation modeling consist of major streets and intersections within the EFZ.
The major streets include roadways of the fol-lowing classifications.
1)
Expressways as characterized by high design stand-ards, limited access, grade separation, and d44251
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Route 3 between Duxbury, at the north, and Bourne, on the south, is the only expressway in the study area.
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Arterial Streets as characterized by continuity of travel; connecting
- business, population, or major recreation areas, and traffic controls and geometric designs which enhance traffic flow and safety.
3)
Connector Streets as links between residential areas (served by local roads) and arterial streets.
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- roadways, the evacu ition network includes the intersections of major streets.
The intersections are particularly important, since the ability of intersections to handle traffic is the major capacity constraint during an evacuation.
The total traffic network considered in the evacuation estimates is shown in Figure 3-2.
Table 3-1 is a list identi-fying the roadways in the network, by name.
For the purposes af calculating evacuation times, this network has been coded into a system of " links" and " nodes".
The nodes are the net-work intersections on Figure 3-2; the links are the individual roadway segments between the nodes.
3.3 Internal Links and Nodes A total of 118 " internal" links, representing actual road segments, are included in the network.
A total of 88 internal
- nodes, representing
- actual, representative, and imaginary intersections within the model have been included in the network.
For purposes of the evacuation simulation, two addi-tional types of internal nodes, other than standard intersec-tions, are necessary.
First, where a number of local roads, 1944 254
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TABLE 3-1 KEY TO FIGURE 1 IDENTIFICATION OF ROADS Priscilla Rd. (Plymouth)
Taylor Ave. (Plymouth)
Rocky 11111 Rd. (Plymouth)
Pilgrim Access Rd. (Plymouth)
White llorse Rd. (Plymouth)
Manomet Point Rd. (Plymouth)
Route 3A (Plymouth, Kingston, Duxbury)
Beaver Dam Rd. (Plymouth)
Sandwich Rd. (Plymouth)
Dotten Rd. (Plymouth)
Clifford Rd. (Plymouth)
Jordan Rd. (Plymouth)
Long Pond Rd. (Plymouth)
Alden Rd. - Upper College Pond Rd. (Plymouth)
South Pond Rd. - Bare 11111 Rd. (Plymouth)
Federal Furnace Rd. (Plymouth) - Tremont St. (Carver)
South ?!cadow Rd. (Plymouth) - South itendow St. (Carver)
Summer St. (Plymouth)
South St. (Plymouth)
~
Obery St. (Ply' mout h)
Wareham Rd. (Plymouth)
Bourne Rd. (Plymouth)
Halfway Pond Rd. (Plymouth) lipland Rd. - Ca r t e r 's Bridy,e Rd. - I: oxy Calhoon Rd. (Plymouth) lierring Pond Rd. (Plymouth)
Fearing Pond Rd. (Plymouth)
Cranberry Rd. (Carver)
Route 44 (Plymouth, Carver)
Plymouth Rd. (Carver)
Route 80 (Plymouth, Kingston)
Standish Ave. (Plymouth)
Cherry St. (Plymouth)
Elm St. (Kingston)
Smith's Ln. (Kingston)
Road to Rocky Nook Point (Kingston)
Route 106 (Kingston)
Route 27 (Kingston)
Route 53 (Kingston, Duxbury)
Landing Rd. (Kingston)
Bay Rd. (Kingston)
Loring Ln. (Duxbury)
Standish St. (Duxbury)
Depot St. (Duxbury)
Chestnut St. (Duxbury)
Mayflower St. (Duxbury)
Route 14 (Duxbury) liarrison St. (Duxbury)
Powder Point Rd. (Duxbury)
Beach Rd. (Daxbury)
Ca nal Rd. (Duxbury) 1944 257 Route 139 (Duxbury, Kingston)
Tobey Garden St.
(Duxbury)
Winthrop St (Kingston)
beyond the capability of this. medel application join the model's network, a representative node is used.
Nodes 13, 10, 6,
30, and 32 are used in this manner.
Second, imaginary nodes (5, 25, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88) serve to divide lengthy road segments into shorter segments.
This is necessary because the NETSIM model used to calculate the evacuation times can handle links with maximum lengths of 9999 feet.
At the same time that link and node data were collected, actual travel times for over half the links were noted and recorded on travel time log forms.
The complete travel time inventory is included in Appendix B.
These travel times are not included in the model simulation, but can serve in a com-parison with model results.
1.4 Entry and Exit Nodes and Links
" Entry" links and nodes are the mechanisms used to load the evacuation network with the departing automooiles.
For modeling purposes, all automobiles are assumed to " enter" the real network at entry nodes (i.e.,
entry nodes are used as sur-rogates for all the parking lots, driveways, etc.,
from which the evacuating automobiles originate).
For the Pilgrim Station network, the est imated numbers of cars, based on the permanent, seasonal, and transient popula-tions are assigned to one of 39 entry nodes.
From the entry
- nodes, the cars are simulated to travel along the 39 " entry links" where they enter the internal network, on a stochastic basis, at appropriate internal nodes.
Once carried through the internal network by the simulation process, the vehicles are simulated to leave the internal network at one of 28 exit nodes.
Exit nodes are placed at entrances to Route 3, and on arterial streets just beyond the radius of the 10-mile study area.
The entry and exit nodes and entry links, as well as the internal links and nodes for the Pilgrim Station evacuation network model are shown in Figure 3-3.
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l 4.
EVACUATION MODEL CASL'S I
The NRC letter of November 29, 1979 requires evacuation I
time estimates for 20 scenarios.
The following exerpt from the letter outlines the data requirements of NRC:
The areas for which evacuation estimates are required must encompasa the entire area within a circle of about 10 miles radius, and have outer boundaries cor-responding to the plume exposure EPZ.
These areas are as follows:
Distance Area 2 miles two 180 sectors 5 miles four 90 sectors about 10 miles four 90 sectors Estimates for the outer sectors should assume that the inner adjacent sectors are being evacuated simul-taneously.
To the extent practical, the sector boundaries should not divide densely populated areas...
Two estimates are requested in each of the areas defined in item 1 for a general evacuation of the population (not including special f acilities).
A best estimate is required and an adverse weather estimate is required for movement of the population.
To provide the required information, IDiM developed a total of ten cases to be modeled with the NETSIM traffic simulation model*.
The ten cases are as follows:
Case 1 Case 1 is the 2-mile radius around the Pilgrim Power Plant site.
The area, as represented in Figure 4-1, encompasses por-tions of Plymouth, and Plymouth and Cape Cod Bays.
Divided by the 180 sector line extending from the northwest to the southeast, almost all of the land-based populations falls within the southern half.
The small adjacent areas of Rocky
- NETSIM is a computer-based traffic simulation model.
A des-cription of the model is given in Appendix C.
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Point and Manomet Point, located in the northern 1800 sector are, as a matter of reason, included in the southern sector evaluation.
Since the remainder of the northern 180o sector covers only water, only one peak and one adverse weather evacu-ation analysis for two miles are presented.
The estimated total numbers of automobiles used in the two scenarios are tab-ulated in Appendix D.
All 1980 peak automobile case estimates were defined as the total of permanent, seasonal and peck transient population related automobiles.
Adverse condition case estimates are derived from automobiles associated with permanent plus reducad transient populations.
Under 1980 peak season conditions (Case la),
3,057 cars were estimated to be in the area.
Under the 1980 adverse weather scenario (Case Ib), 916 cars were used.
Case 2 Case 2 is the "5-mile radius",
90 sector west of the 7
Pilgrim site, as shown on Figure 4-2.
In keeping with NRC sug-gestions, it was decided not to divide the population of Ply-mouth in the sector.
Thus, Case 2 extends to the town bound-arie.s of Kingston and
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The estimated total number of automobiles for 1980 peak (Case 2a) and adverse (Case 2b) conditions as shown in Appendix D, are 17,270 and 10,675, respectively.
Case 3 Case 3 includes both the 5-mile and 10-mile 90 sectors south of the Pilgrim site, as shown in Figure 4-3.
Since the 10-mile radius computer evaluation also permits a 5-mile read-ing, both evaluations are included under one model case.
The 5-mile area is entirely within Plymouth.
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- Plymouth, the 10-mile area includes very small portions of Wareham and Sourne.
Case 3a, for 1980 peak conditions in the 10-mile area, uses an estimate of 9,650 cars (see Appendix D).
The same area under adverse conditions (Case 3b) is figured to have 2,398 cars.
Case 4 Case 4 is the 10-mile 900 sector north of the Pilgrim site.
The area is comprised of areas including portions of
- Plymouth, Duxbury, and Massachusetts Bays; approximately half of Duxbury; and a small portion of Marshfield.
In keeping with the decision not to divide population
- centers, Duxbury is treated as a whole within 10 miles, (see Figure 4-4),
and includes approximately 20% of the population allocations from sectors WNW 8-9 and WNW 9-10.
The corresponding related auto-mobile estimates were subtracted from the 10-mile 900 west sector (Case 5).
The population representative of Saquish Neck in Duxbury, the only land within fLve miles, was insufficient to warrant a separate computer simulation.
- Thus, vehicle estimates for Saquish Neck are included in the 10-mile computer evaluation.
In addition, a manual evacuation time calculation for Saquish Neck and Clarks Island, based on notification by the Duxbury liarbormaster has been prepared.
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Vehicle estimates for the 1980 peak condition (Case 4a) are 14,310.
The adverse weather condition (Case 4b) was calcu-lated to have 8,568 cars.
Case 5 E
E Case 5 is the 10-mile 900 radius sector west of the Pil-grim site.
The area includes approximately half of Plymouth (including the Central Business District), over half of Kings-
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of sectors WNW 8-9 and WNW 9-10 within the 90 sector are within the town boundary of Duxbury and are considered in Case 4.
Estimated 1980 peak condition automobiles (Case Sa) are 22,ll5.
Adverse condition (Case 5b) estimates for 1980 were figured at 14,670.
Vehicle estimates for each of the ten cases were included in the simulation model by assigning automobiles on a sector-by-sector basis to designated entry nodes.
Such sector assign-ments were made either in whole, or part, to one or more of the entry nodes; usually the entry node, or nodes, closest to that particular sector.
t.oading of the network is initiated simul-taneously at each entry node within the model area to be evacu-ated.
This means that each car to be evacuated is immediately put into a queue at the appropriate entry node.
For Case 1, the 2-mile radius, the model specified a loading rate of 1,200 cars per hour for each entry node.
Cases 2 through 5 use a loading rate of 900 vehicles per hotr.
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- network, the vehicles advance through subsequent internal nodes on the basis of predetermined turning movements.
Append!x c.
indicates the percentages of left, through, right, and diagonal turning movements at each intersection in the network.
Travel speeds in the peak condition were targeted at 35, 40, or 45 mph, depending on the road design and capacity.
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- however, calculated the actual travel speeds which were attained when the network was fully loaded with the evacuating vehicles.
Under the adverse case, travel speeds are targeted at 15 mph, with all roads assumed to be just one lane.
844 272 -
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5.
ESTIMATES OF EVACUATION TIMES The results of the evacuation clear time calculations are summarized in Table 5-1.
The table outlines the applicable clear times for each of the 20 scenarios suggested by NRC in its letter of November 29, 1979.
For six of the 20 scenarios, the table indicates "NA",
or not applicable, since these areas are over water.
Twelve of the clear time estimates have been derived from the model cases described in the previous sec-tion.
The remaining pair of clear times has been subjectively estimated.
The limiting case for evacuating areas within a 2-mile radius is the 150 minutes for the South 1800 sector under normal weather conditions.
The 150 minutes is twice the tame t-o evacuate the same area during adverse weather.
This indi-cates that the peak summer population assumed during normal weather cases impacts evacuation times much more significantly than the reduced travel speeds assumed during adverse weather.
The limiting case for evacuating areas within,
5-mile radius takes place in the South 900 sector.
It is estimated that evacuation of this sector will take 285 minutes during the peak summer periods with normal weather.
During adverse weather, evacuation of the same sector is estimated to take 100 minutes.
Once again, the greater time requirements during the normal weather case are due to the large nu nbe rs of seasonal residents and transient visitors during the summer months.
The limiting 10-mile case is the North 90 sector.
It has a total clear time of 405 minutes.
This estimate is the limiting value for the entire 10-mile EPZ.
This number also results during the peak summer periods.
It is a direct func-tion of peak transient beach usage, combined with the limited capacity of the roads in Duxbury.
The adverse weather cases result in lower clear times for each of the twelve cases examined.
This is due to the lower winter population density throughout the EPZ.
The limiting 19I4275 -
TABLE 5-1
SUMMARY
OF ESTIMATED CLEAR TIMES (minutes)
Peak Population and Winter Population Evacuation Areas Normal Weather Adverse Weather North 0-2 miles Na NA South 0-2 miles 15]
75 North 0-5 miles 120*
120*
Sast 0-5 miles NA NA South 0-5 miles 285 100 West 0-5 miles 215 170 North 0-10 miles 405 265 Enat 0-10 miles NA NA South 0-10 miles 300 125 West 0-10 miles 210 175
- Assumed time for evacuating Saquish Neck only.
Note that the winter population is estimated to be three people.
1944 276
~
---m.i
number for the adverse cases is the North 90 10-mile sector, with a total clear time of 265 minutes.
This is 140 minutes less than the limiting case during times of peak population.
It should be noted that during most of the year, the size of the population at risk is closer to that for the adverse case than that for peak summer condition.
It can, therefore, be inferred that "most probable" evacuation times will be less than either of those sets of estimates presented in Table 5-1.
This is true since the smaller total population will exit under normal weather and traffic conditions.
The calculations have intentionally incorporated many con-servative assumptions which tend to increase evacuation time estimates.
For example, -he peak population numbers assume the maximum possible number of people must be evacuated.
The peak population number assumes 100%, use of all permanent and sea-sonal dwellings, together with concurrent peak use of beach, outdoor recreation and tourist facilities.
The peak population numbers used to calculate clear time also include considerable double
- counting, since many of the transients counted at beaches, recreational areas, and historic sites are seasonal or permanent residents.
It is also assumed that all stop signs, traffic lights and traffic control measures are obeyed, and that local officials do nothing to expedite traffic movement.
These assumptions add significant increments to estimateo clear times.
For these reasons, the evacuation calculations probably over-predict the most probable evacuation timas by a large margin.
1944 277 _ _ _ _...
m.-
6.
ANCILLARY EVACUATION DATA
- In response to the NRC request, several ancillary evacua-tion topics have ieen discussed with the Massachusetts Civil Defense Agency (MCDA).
The following subsections document the conclusions of those discussions.
6.1 Special Facilities There are a total of four facilities which qualify as "special facilities" for evacuation purposes.
These are the Jordan liospital (W 3-1/2 miles) in
- Plymouth, the Plymouth County Jail (W 3-3/4 miles),
the Massachusetts Correctional Institute (SSW 7-3/4 miles) and the Town of Plymouth Jail
(-WNW 4 - 3 / 4 miles).
All prisoners will be removed from the incarceration facilities by bus or by police cruiser.
A pro-jected peak total of 242 prisoners require evacuation.
This number of prisoners can be moved using a total of five to seven buses.
Three to four buses would be required to evacuate the County Jail; one or two for the Massachusetts Correctional Institute; and a single small bus would be required for the Town Jail.
At present, there are no firm arrangements for pro-viding buses to the correctional facilities.
Ilo w e v e r,
local officials are currently developing plans for providing the needed facilities.
Plans may incorporate the use of buses from nearby National Guard units.
In any event, the need for seven buses causes no special problems.**
- Per personal communication with Bernie Nolan, MCDA, January 18, 1980.
- Seven buses have no measurable effects on the evacuation time estimates.
To be conservative, however, the llMM esti-mates assume that all transients will leave the area by pas-senger car.
Accordingly, the models assume that 64 auto-mobiles are added to the network to evacuate prisoners.
l'9 4 4 2 7 8 __
mens im
---i e
The Jordan llospital evacuation may present more technical problems.
The peak inpatient population is estimated to be 135 persons.
Many of these require special medical attention.
The special attention may make total evacuation impractical.
It is possible that movement of some patients presents a greater health hazard than any potential for radiological exposure.
For other patlents, evacuation may require ambulances with 1ife supporting equipment.
At this time, Jordan llospital has not drafted an emergency response plan.
Development of a plan is being undertaken now.
Therefore, evacuation details for this facility have not been fully defined.
For calculating clear times,
- however, it was assumed that all hospital patients would be removed using pri-vately owned vehicles.
It was assumed that each vehicle could transport three patients.
6.2 Notification Times At present, MCDA estimates that there is a set of four public notification times that may be applied to the Pilgrim EPZ.
Based on discussions with the Town of
- Plymouth, MCDA estimates a minimum notification time of 45 minutes for the town.
During adverse weather, the notification is estimated to take 60 minutes.
For other towns within the EPZ, a minimum notification time of 35 minutes is estimated during normal weather.
During adverse weather, the non-Plymouth notifica-tions are estimated to be 45 minutes.
The longer notification times in Plymouth reflect the larger resident population and the larger geographical area.
Some portion of each notification time estimate should probably be added to the clear time estimates to conservatively determine total evacuation times.
It appears,
- however, that incremental increases may be limited.
This conclusion was reached as a
result of a brief, qualitative review of the 1944 279 _ _ _ _
printouts from the NETS DI computer model runs.
The printout data indicate that key intersections quickly become overloaded under simultaneous notification cases.
Cars begin waiting in lengthy queues almost immediately.
By staggering notification times, queue lengths during the early portions of an evacuation may he reduced, without reducing the rate at which automobiles leave the evacuation area.
In short, autos wait in driveways and parking lots rather than in qucues.
This could, in some cases reduce total evacuation times from the simultaneous noti-fication cases.
A reasonable estimate would be that 0 to 30 minutes could be added to the clear times outlined in Table S-1 to estimate total evacuation time.
6.3 Confirmation Times Confirmation of evacuation will be undertaken by the same teams used to provide public notification.
The confirmation will be provided by brief visual inspections
- for indications of continued human activity in an evacuated area.
MCDA sug-gests that confirmation. times for this process will be the same as the notification times.
6.4 S ecial Evacuation Problems l
MCDA feels that the Pilgrim EPZ has no "special evacuation problems",
such as unusually high population density areas, which preclude evacuation as the primary protective action to reduce radiological exposures in the event of an emergency.
- No s3ecial instructions to the public (e.g.,
tyin open)g a handker-chief to the door, or leaving the door have been drafted to date.
MCDA feels that public acceptance of spe-cial instructions is particularly important.
Concerns relate to advertising the vacancy of dwellings to burglars or looters.
1944 280 __
i--
The population at risk can be removed in a timely and orderly fashion.
There are, however, several alternative actions that can be taken to protect citizens in the event of an accident involving potentially dangerous radiation releases.
Many of them are outlined, in general
- terms, in the MCLA Emergency Response Plan.
The application of a particular action would depend on a number of factors such as time available to imple-ment tb-action, its risks, and available resources.
For exam-ple, in a situation in whic.h a plume is expected to pass over an area before it can be evacuated, the recommended protective action would likely involve taking shelter, as opposed to eva-cuation.
Other measures included in the MCDA plan include con-trolling access to af fected areas, control of foodstuffs, and administration of radioprotective drugs.
I
~
I f944 281 1
1 I
I I
I APPENDIX A POPULATION AND AUTOMOBILE DATA USED FOR CLEAR TIME ESTIMATES I
I I
I N
1944 282
~
I APPENDIX A POPULATION AND AUTOMOBILE DATA USED FOR CLEAR TIME ESTIMATES I
l In order to estimate the evacuation times, two sets of population data are required.
The first set of population data is the total 1980 peak population within the 10-mile plume exposure emergency planning zone (EPZ).
For the Pilgrim EPZ, the total peak population consists of three elements:
perman-est population, seasonal (summer) population, and peak tran-l sient population (visitors, daily employees, etc.).
The second set of da:a is the population within the 10-mile EPZ during the
" adverse weather" conditions.
Adverse weather for Pilgrim Sta-tion is assumed to be a
traffic-constricting snowfall.*
Accordingly, the adverse weather population consists of perman-ent population and the transient winter population.
A.1 Sources of Data l
The 1980 permanent population data for the area within a 1
5-mile radius of Pilgrim Station has been taken from the report compiled by ERT in 1975.*
This data is shown in the population
'~
rose presented as Figure A-1.
This data has been tabulated by annular
- rings, at 1-mile increments, and by the sixteen 22-1/20 compass direction sectors.
The permanent 1980 popu-lation data for the area from 5 to 10 miles from the Pilgrim Station site center has been taken from the FSAR (Amendment 1, 1974) for Pilgrim Station.
This data provides a breakdown by 22-1/20 sector, only.
Table A-1 outlines the source of 1980 permanent population for each of the 16 sectors.
The peak 1980 seasonal population data has been taken dir-l ectly from the same sources used for the permanent l
- An Evacuation Analysis for the Pilgrim Site, August 1975.
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TotalSegment Pdpulatias m
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POPULATION TOTALS RING, MILES TOTAL MILES kENgN I
POPU ION 0-1 382 0 -1 382 1-15 704 0-15 1086 15-2 1858 0-2 2244 2 - 2.5 1532 0-25 3776 25-3 1017 0-3 4793 3-4 3224 0-4 8017 4-5 6320 0-5 14,337 Figure A-1 Year-Round Population Rose - 1980 1944 284
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.em POPULATION DISTR 18UTION-PERM ANENT Table A-1 Pooulation Distribution within 10 Miles of Pilgrim Station Site 1944 285
-i-----
--ie
population data.
The seasonal data, like the permanent data, l
is available in each of the sixteen 22-1/20 compass sectors, and in annualar rings with 1-mile increments within five miles (the 1975 ERT data),
and in a single ring from mile five through mile ten (the FSAR data).
The 0-5 mile seasonal data compiled by ERT is presented in population rose form as Figure A-2.
The 5-10 mile FSAR seasonal population data is contained in Table A-2.
All the transient population data has been taken from Tables 1 through 7, which were prepared by ERT in July, 1979.
These tables list the peak populations associated with each of six categories of activities with transient population.
The peak transient population is outlined in Table 7.
The tran-sient population compiled by ERT represents the peak summer transient population.
The same tables were modified to esti-mate adverse weather transient populations.
Camps and camp-grounds, and public outdoor recreation areas were eliminated.
Furthermore, a reduced number of hotel, motel, and guest house transients was assumed.*
A.2 Derived Population Roses Four 10-mile radius population distributions have been derived from the best available 1980 population data described above.
These are presented in Figure A-3, the permanent popu-lation; Figure A-4, the peak 1980 seasonal population estimate; Figure A-5, the peak 1980 transient population estimate; and Figure A-6, the 1980 estimated winter transient population.
I
- HMM determined which hotels and motels are open during the win-ter when " adverse weather conditions" will occur by telephone communication with the Plymouth Chamber of Commerce.
It was assumed that each of the hotels or motels which is open during the adverse weather time would be filled to 50% of its capacity.
1944 286 I
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16 7 POPULATION TOTALS POPU ION TOTAL MILES kM(fTI RING, MILES P
0-l 1356 0 -1 1356 l-15 1691 0-15 3047 15-2 1644 0-2 4691 2-25
'84 0 - 2.5 5405 25-5 460 0-3 5865 3-4 2865 0-4 8730 I
4-$
2329 0-5 11,059 Figure A-2 Seasonal Resident Population Rose - 1980 1944 287
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SCALE IN POPULATION DISTRIBUTION-SE ASON AL Table A-2 Seasonal Po ulation Distribution within 10 M les of Pilgrim Station Site f944 288 I
Table A-3 HOTELS, MOTELS 6 GUEST HOUSES LOCATED WITHIN TEN MILES OF PILGRIM UNIT 2
~
TOWN DISTANCE AND ESTIMATED NUMBER OF AITTOS-FACILITY NAME LOCATION DIRECTION FRGI PEAK USE WINTER ESTDIATE*
PILGRIM UNIT 2 1980 Bri-Di-Mar kdge Plymouth SE 1-1/4 mi.
12 Sandpiper Inn Plymouth:
SE 1-1/4 mi.
22 of,["#8' Plymouth SE 1-1/2 mi.
40 Colonial House Inn Plymouth SE 1-3/4 mi.
12 Mayflower Beach Lodge Plymouth SE 1-3/4 mi.
200 White's Cottages Plymouth SE 2 mi.
120
-Shad'ow Fox Lodge Plymouth SE 2-1/4 mi.
13 Red Oaks Motel Plymouth SSE 1-1/2 mi.
50 Blue Spruce Motel Plymouth SSE 2-3/4 mi.
68 11 Cranberry Motel Plymouth SSE 4-1/2 mi.
50 Yankee Traveler Motel Plymouth WSW 1-1/2 mi.
130 27 Lofty Elm Carver NSW 9-3/4 mi.
24 Pilgrim Sands Motel Plymouth W 2-1/4 mi.
252 42 Loremar Plymouth W 2-1/2 mi.
14 The Inn Plymouth W 2-3/4 mi.
25 Meadowview Guest House Plymouth W 3-3/4 mi.
11 2
Blue Anchor Motel Plymouth W 4-1/4 mi.
15 3
Gov. Carver Motor Inn Plymouth W 4-1/2 mi.
328 55 Alden House Plymouth W 4-3/4 mi.
10 2
Cadillac Mots 1 Plymouth W 5-1/2 mi.
66 Plymouth Motel Plymouth W 5-3/4 mi.
85 14 Clear Pond Cottages Plymouth W 7-3/4 mi.
6 1
- Winter estimate assumes 1/2 capacity of open facilitias and 3 peo le per car
!944 289
Table A-3 (Continued)
HOTELS, MOTELS 6 GUEST HOUSES LOCATED WI'iHIN TEN MILES OF PI!4 RIM UNIT 2 TOWN DISTANCE AND ESTIMATED NUMBER OF AUTns.
FACILITY NAME LOCATION DIRECTION FROM PF g SE WINTER liSTI: Mil:
PILGRIM UNIT 2 Proctor's Cabins Plymouth W 8 mi.
120 Gov. Bradford Motor Plymouth WNW 4-1/2 mi.
376 LeFebre's Guest House Plymouth WNW 4-3/4 mi.
2 1
Sleepy Pilgrim Hotel Plymouth WNW 5-1/4 mi.
35 Cold Spring Motel Plymouth WNW 5-1/4 mi.
64 Breezy 11111 Motel Plymouth WNW 6-1/4 mi.
25
- Bayview Kingston WNW 6-3/4 mi.
35 Hilltop Kingston WNW 6-3/4 mi.
32 5
Capeway Travel Motel Kingston hWW 7 mi.
34 6
Howard Johnsons Motor Kingston WNW 8 mi.
140 73 Inn Gurnet Inn Duxbury WNW 9-1/4 mi.
32 TOTAL PEAK USE:
2,448 242 I
I I
I 1944 290 I
Table A-4 CAMPS AND CAMPGROUNDS 14CATED Willi!N TEN MILES OF PILGRIM UNIT 2
~
DISTANCE AND 1980 NUMBER OF AUTOS-TOWN DIRECTION FROM ESTIMATED WINTER ESTIMATi!
FACILITY NAME LOCATION PILGRIM UNIT 2 PEAK USE Camp Child Plymouth SSE S-1/2 mi.
200 Indian Head Campgrounds Plymouth SSE 7 mi.
900 Camp Dorothy Carleton Plymouth S 6-1/2 mi.
ISO Baird Center Plymouth S 6-1/2 mi.
18 Timberland-Cedarwood Plymouth S 7 mi.
60 Camp Clark Plymouth S 7-3/4 mi.
120 Camp Dennen Plymouth S 8 mi.
200 Camp Massasoit PI :iouth S 9-1/2 mi.
100 Camp Bourndale Plymouth S 9-1/2 mi.
ISO Wind in the Pines Plymouth SSW S-3/4 mi.
300 Pine Wood Carp hlymouth SSW 6-1/4 mi.
160 Camp Squsnto Plymouth SSW 8-1/2 mi.
330 Camp Cachalot Plymouth SSW 9-3/4 mi.
200 Plymouth Recreation
.P1vmouth WSW 1-1/2 mi.
7S Center Blueberry Hill Camp-ground Plymouth WSW 4-3/4 mi.
S9 Ellis Haven Plymouth WSW 7-1/4 mi.
1200 Pinewood Lodge Plymouth W 8-1/4 mi.
400 Camp Norse Plymouth W 8-1/2 mi.
140 Camp Mishannoch Kingston W 8-3/4 mi.
ISO St. Margaret's Ct.mp Duxbury NW 7-1/2 mi.
30 Camp Daniel Webster Duxbury NW 10 mi.
260 TOTAL PEAK USE:
S,202 1944 291
Table A-5 NURSING HOMES AND HOSPITALS 14CATED WITilIN TEN MILES OF PILGRIM UNIT 2 TOWN DISTANCE AND ESTIMATED NUMBER OF AUTOS-FACILITY NAME LOCATION DIRECTION FROM PEAK USE WINTER ESTIMATE PILGRIM UNIT 2 1980 Plymouth Nursing llome Plymouth W 3-1/2 mi.
37 13 Jordan Hospital Plymouth
- W 3-1/2 mi.
13S 45 Mayflower House Plymouth W 4-1/4 mi.
124 42 Pilgrim Manor Nursing Home Plymouth W 4-1/2 mi.
84 28 Newfield House Plymouth W 4 3/4 mi.
100 34 Happiness House Rest
,Home Plymouth WNW 4-3/4 mi.
36 12 Shady Breeze Rest Home Kingston WNW 8-3/4 mi.
1S 5
TOTAL PEAK USE:
S31 179 9
I I
I
l-Table A-6 JAILS AND DETENTION CENTERS (4CATED WIT 111N TEN MILES OF PILGRIM UNIT 2 I
~
TOWN DISTANCE AND ESTIMATED NtffBER OF ALTTCS-FACILITY NAME LOCATION DIRECTION FROM PEAK USE WINTER ESTIMATr PILGRIM UNIT 2 1980 Plymouth County Jail (County Fam)
Plymouth ~
W 3-3/4 mi.
155 53 Town of Plymouth Jail Plymouth WNW 4-3/4 mi.
22 8
Mass. Correctional Institute Plymouth SSW 7-3/4 mi.
65 23 TOTAL PEAK USE:
24 2 84
~
0 m
1944~293
Table A-7 MAJOR TOURIST / HISTORIC SITES
'ACATED Wl'IMIN TEN MILES OF PILGRIM UNIT 2 DISTANCE AND 1980 NUMBER OF Alfrm-T0hN DIRECTION FROM ESTIMATED WINTER ESTIMATE FACILITY NAME LOCATION PILGRIM UNIT 2 PEAK USE Plimoth Plantation Plymouth W 2-3/4 mi.
500 167 William Harlow House
- Plymouth, W 4-1/4 mi.
60 20 Sparrow House Plymouth W 4-1/4 mi.
30 to Plymouth Rock Plymouth WNW 4-1/2 mi.
100 34 Mayflower 11 Plymouth WNW 4-3/4 mi.
125 42 Howland House Plymouth WNW 4-3/4 mi.
60 20 Spooner House Plymouth WNW 4-3/4 mi.
75 25 Mayflower Society House Plymouth WNW 4-3/4 mi.
50 20 Plymourn National Wax Plymouth WNW 4-3/4 mi.
300 100 Muse";4 Pilgrim Hall )!useum Plymouth WNW 5 mi.
300 100 Mayflower Experience Plymou'th WNW 5 mi.
200 67 Antiquarian House Plymouth WNW 5 mi.
250 84 Plymouth WNW 5-1/2 mi.
400 134 r ce er John Bradford House Kingston WNW 8-1/4 mi.
80 27 Mi Standish Duxbury NW 7-1/4 mi.
175 59 John Alden House Duxbury NW 9 mi.
30 to TOTAL PEAK USE:
2,745 919
}kh b
- * ~
Table A-8 PUBLIC RECREATION AREAS LOCATED WI1111N TEN MILES OF PILGRIM UNIT 2 DISTANCE AND 1980 NUMBER OF AtTr0S-TOWN DIRECTION FROM ESTIMATED WINTER ESTIMATF.
FACILITY NAME LOCATION PILGRIM UNIT 2 PEAK USE White Horse Beach
- Plymouth SE 1-1/2 mi.
2,000 Emerson Field Plymouth SSE 2-1/4 mi.
200 Brook Road Playground Plymouth SSE 2-1/2 mi.
100 Briggs Playground Plymouth SSE 2-3/4 mi.
200 Fresh Pond Plymouth SSE 2-3/4 mi.
1,500 Cederville Landing -
Beach Plymouth SSE 9-1/4 mi.
100 Sagmore Highlands Beach Bourne SSE 9-1/2 ni.
50 Sagamore Beach Bourne SSE 10 mi.
120 Rocky Pond Plymouth S 5 mi.
100 Morey Hole P,ond Plymouth S 5-1/2 mi.
100 Great Herring Pond Plymouth S 9 mi.
200 Big Sandy Pond ilymouth S 9 mi.
150 Cleft Rock Park Plymouth SSW 3/4 mi.
150 long Pond Plymouth SSW 5-3/4 mi.
400
~6-7 564 f6
' Standish State Plymouth SSW 6-10 mi.
2,255-9 64 k*
.9-10 564 Gunners Exchange Pond Plymouth SW 5-1/4 mi.
100 3-6 60 Plymouth / Carver SW 5-10 mi.
1,190- 7$8 es Standish State 8-9 357 Cooks Pond Plymouth / Carver WSW 4-3/4 mi.
100
-10 357 9
6-7 105 Miles Standish 8
105 State Park" Plymouth / Carver WSW 6-10 mi.
420 9
5 Plymouth Beach
- Plymesth/ Carver W 3-4 mi.
4.000 9-10 105 1~944:295
Table A-8 (Continued)
PUBLIC RECREATION AREAS LOCATED WIDi!N TEN MILES OF PILGRIM UNIT 2 DISTANCE AND 1980 NUMBER OF AUTOS-TOWN DIRECTION FROM ESTD!ATED WINTER ESTIMATE FACILI'lY NAME LOCATION PILGRIM UNI' 2 PEAK USE Stephens Field Plymouth / Carver W 4 mi.
500 Haskell Field Plymouth / Carver W 4 mi, 200 Burton Park Plymouth / Carver W 4-1/4 mi.
0 Arthur Sirrico Play-ground Plymouth W 4-1/4 mi.
100 Training Green (Park]
.;ymouth W 4-1/4 mi.
0 Brewster Garden (Park)
Plymouth W 4-1/2 mi.
1,500 Jenny Poor Farm (Park)
Plymouth W 4-1/2 mi.
1,500 Phillip Jackson (Park)
Plymouth W 4-1/2 mi.
0 Summer Street (Park)
Plymouth W 4-3/4 mi.
150 Lout Pond Plymouth W 4-3/4 mi.
100 Allerton Street (Play-groundl Plymouth W 4-3/4 mi.
60 Morton Park Plymouth W 5-1/4 1/4 mi. 3,000 Little Pond Plymouth W 5-1/2 mi.
100 Nelson Str ut Play-ground Plymoutn WNW 5-1/4 mi.
250 Siever Field Plymouth WNW 5-3/4 mi.
200 Veterans Field Plymouth WNW 6 mi.
150 Greys Beach Kingston WNW 7 mi.
1,200 Reed Community Center Kingston WNW 8-1/2 mi.
300 Boston Edison Shore -
front Plymouth NW 1/4 mi.
268 Shipyard Lane Beach Duxbury NW 7-1/2 mi.
200 1944 296
Table A-8 (Continued)
PUBLIC RECREATION AREAS IDCATiD WIHlIN TEN MILES OF PILGRIM UNIT 2 DISTANCE AND 1980 NUMBER OF AUTOS-TOWN DIRECTION FROM ESTIMATED WINTER ESTIMATE
~
FACILITY NAME LOCATION PILGRIM UNIT 2 PEAK USE Percy Walker Pool Duxbury NW 9 mi.
300 Duxbury Beach
- Duxbury*
NNW 7-3/4 1/4 mi. 1,200 Blakeman's Beach Duxbury NNW 8-1/4 1/2 mi. 7,500 Green liarbor Beach Marshfield NNW 10 mi.
4,000 TOTAL PEAK USE:
36,213 3,867 The beacM itself extends beyond the indicated distance. However, beach useage predominantly takes place within the indicated area.
Miles Standish State fark is located in three sectors of the study The peak use estimates correspond to the useage in each area.
separate sector.
1944 297
--i------------
Table A-9 ESTIMATED CURRENT PEAK SEASONAL TRANSIENT POPULATION BY SECTOR (1980)
DISTANCE FROM PILGRIM UNIT 2 (MILES) 0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-10 TOTAL N
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 NNE O
0 0
0 f,
0 0
NE O
O O
O O
O O
ENE O
O O
O O
O O
E O
O O
O O
O O
ESE O
O O
O O
O O
SE O
2,286 133 0
0 0
2,419 SSE O
50 2,068 0
50 1,370 3,538 5
0 0
0 0
0 1,348 1,348 SSW 150 0
0 0
0 3,710 3,860 SW 0
0 0
0 0
1,290 1,290 WSW 0
205 0
0 159 1,644 2,0C8 W
0 0
791 4,338 4,771 4,067 13,967 WNW O
O O
O 1,996, 2,992 4,988 NW 268 0.,
0 0
0 995 1,263 NNW 0
0 0
0 0
12,700 12,700 TOTAL 418 2,541 2,992 4,338 6,976 30,116 47,381 1944 298
N 3c17
.19 s E
3 17 o o
A 4754 isss t!l43
/SA9 3
Sost g,
ENE Sb55 o
im I
e, o
i Wi$ ek sai 14 k
. mi u,
3s1 n1 also' 2091 s390 \\ as+s tan 3.n E
ist 4
20 17C 5*
- 79 TN B5 365
,gg g
g 31t 1I 5d+
Wsw S IL%
ESE g3 371 lA L32 114 la 21 j
2+
p 41 S
22.
33 29 E
U 83 I
22 g3 SS til S
Figure A-3 1980 Pert::aaent Population 0-10 Miles 1944 299
I I
a I
4rr E
4So O
Tol O
6%
N ns g
o N#3 433 ENE
- s9 o
4 35 0
w o
w'c'.;i. :',}.a r ue,e I
e 42 i,
2 3
g+
3N 5:
3 ial IN 3
g;2 441
'0 33 1
5 g3 451 r72 91 12, wsw 172 gg ES '
4g
,3g 22 46 11 3,9 46 98 s
M8 A'3 g,
E 111
\\\\b 1n 5 211 N3 3
SS MS I
Figure A-4 1980 Seasonal Population 0-10 Miles 1944 300 I
N eco 1500 I2DO Qk sw O
%S O
31 0
0 O
- y o
13 %
EWE o
o ILOo o
ID 0
0 O
O O
O w di. i. Ai,7.i,..,gg.,,,, m 1, g,
es o
I o
,e o9 o
os 0
M g (30f 0
g 121 0
g W5W o
o ESE g
179 50 o
pt Do 0
3 *'
C 12+
351 9#
o g
a 6 29 o
O sqq 3D E
O
,w 39 il g
150 S
Figure A-5 1980 Peak Transient Population 0-10 Miles (includes Gurnet Inn in WNW, which is incorrect, see Table 1) 1944 301
I I
N E
..h o
~
y 30 nr o
o 95 o
70 ana j
33 o
1529
~
o W'ok 6,;
'"," o*~,,y,,,, *'N's&' o o
m,o s
E
- co o
o o
o o a O
o 0
o o
Y 0
o o
Wsw o
'8E o
o o
o O
o o
o o
\\
g o
E o
o o
s 65 o
o 0
o 0
o M
o i
o S
5 Figu7, A-6 erse y*Bther 77, U"I tion 0.zn gLIg l
1944 302 I
The 0-5 mile permanent population distribution for Fig-ure A-3 were taken directly from the base data in Figure A-2.
The 5-10 mile numbers were taken from Figure A-1, in aggregate form, and distributed to the appropriate 1-mile rings (i.e.,
mile 5-6, 6-7, 7-8, 8-9, and 9-10).
The distribution was made subjectively, using the sector allocation percentages enumer-ated on Figure A-7 (for example, the permanent population esti-mate of 63 for SSE sector 9-10, on Figure A-3, is derived by multiplying the SSE sector 9-10 percentage allocation of 20%,
on Figure A-7, by the SSE 5-10 mile population estimate of 416 in Table A-1, i.e., 416 x 20% = 83.2).
The allocation percent-7 ages outlined in Figure A-7 were assumed based on reviews of available maps which show the relative distribution of develop-ment within the 5-10 mile areas.
Figure A-4, the 10-mile rose for seasonal population, was derived in the same manner as Figure A-3.
The 0-5 mile sea-sonal population were taken directly from Figure a-2.
The aggregate 5-10 mile seasonal numbers from Table A-2 were assigned to 1-mile increments using the allowation percentages from Figure A-7.
The 1980 peak transient estimates of Figure A-5 were derived directly from Tcbles 1 through 7.
These data were sim-ply transformed to population rose form.
The 1980 transient population in Figure A-6 were aso derived from the tables, in the manner previously described.
A.3 Derived Auto Estimates
~
In order to estimate evacuation times, the four sets of population data were converted to the numbers of automobiles.
It was assumed that permanent residents would evacuate with 2.5 people per automobile.
Automobile occupancy factors of 3.0 and 4.0 were used for the transient and seasonal population, res-pectively.
The resultant roses displaying the numbers of auto-mobiles to be evacuated from the EPZ are shows in Figures A-8, A-9, A-10, and A-ll for the permanent, seasonal, peak tran-sient, and winter transient cases, respectively.
I I
I coo?.
407.
I 207.
\\
107.
\\
I 57.
IN g
EME
- 7-30%
=
I 1
b WS=8 g 8 gkJ iyNw w w w
=
l E
g 10 %
/c7, W3w ID'I' ESE g
I
$7.
- 1 3o*4 6*/.
$1.
20%
79.;,
9%
s g.
lC l.
A gg 5*/.
21 20 *!*
Wl' 2 61.
a,.
I Figure A-7 Percent of Permanent and Seasonal Autos Assigned to One-Mile g
\\ Increments (from 5 to 10 Mile Total) l2, g
[944 304 I
h w
' ode IZil 207 (iE
- 267 o
2.534 0
11c2 O
wun/
'3+
j
/3:1 O
1011 pp O
/
t:49 ENE o
- D o
j%
ssh o
i o
c'.
1 o
o le
,C 6 emi S ml 7ml ob r,ad V/
4W u,
or na gn i z:& was sohl,v,2ml r'*! j "t E
i 55
'4, g
, as
\\
n+
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cp \\
2i M'y g
3;g ESE 53 g
q, a
10 6
1 o
N go 6
q o
/
il Sw 4
35 of q
10 SE 35 N
33 g3 li S
Figure A-8 1944 305 Number of Autos Associated with Permanent Population i-----i---
ie i
I I
N I
122 x
148 N
II)
)
.ol l
WMw liI l'd g
\\ \\
\\
t!b O
ENE c
o 1
0 Il o
g
_C M
7A'j 3
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'a '*'
=
W mm'
- 8 ='
E L
1 4
1 71f7 II 4
!!O
- 65 1
\\
s M
e r3 l
I wsw
+3 3
g o
ESE gi 2.
235 g
\\
go
/
c3 21 c,
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jl b~
c,5 2S g
SSN 2 ;,,
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Figure A-9 Humber of Seasonal Autos l'944 306 g
I
__m N
(3 h 3 O
E
'if goo IIO L3S O
O O
E*14w 0
fl O
o O
g o
O o
%S o
f O
O O
O O
,, 3 j
O O
Wm 9 i ami imi s.
u.
o u,
IWS l 2/'N, E
O T430 42 O l 1053I IS?1 s
A 0.
o o
v.,
-/
j a
o f
53 O
o o 11 0
4,4 3'
O O
dl
/
gg O
35 0
o WSW 45 C'
ESE O
C 17 0
g g
H 235 0
33 61 Il9 pl O
?co tli 1e o
gg
- o1 E
O
%fv 31 90 V3 E
s.
S Figure A-10 07 Numbar of Peak Transient Autos
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N I
I Ne to I
o
\\
/
33 ENE l>)
3 Sio a
o W Sm'
- =', 8 =i 7m' s-4.
wi ai o i E
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a o
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o
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q o
O a
/
o o
S I'
f I
o
~ "
0 SS E
G Figure.A-l'<
Advers We
.er Transient Autos
APPENDIX B TRAVEL TIMES 1944 309
ie
TRAVEL TIW, LOG DATE:
- FTEATHER:
C 19-Cllf ' 2 h[{4 nfn 5
110UR:
6 LINK NAME h TOWN LINK NO.
ORIGIN IDESTINATION TRAVEL TIME NODE NO.
NODE NO.
3 di da H wu
/_/
e2 3
i: 3r s
3 s
2: sr
?
TT T
9 4
'7 4u6 10
.5
(,
2: 07 f 2-.
(o IO 4?OS 13 1
F1 3. cc 14 1
P 7<te is 2
cf i.3s 10 8&
14 2 <. sb
\\ ~1 IO II 2;I?
l2 ll 13-I:57 ICf li 14 l :,'3 4 20
' 2-13 ss sec.
2) i3 I7 1: 31 zz-lG i7 pu see D3
\\Q
\\(o
\\ *. co d LI IQ I$
26sec.
71o Uo IP 1:w 91 l '~3
\\T l: %
2R 51Cl I ci
- v. I 2.
BR R
(D% &H m
4
' &\\
2:. q0 2\\
\\5 Do s ts 3 a.
\\T ao s:cu
%3 Go Al s2 sec_,
M B-f aci c
35 96 PG l.'/44 310 E
3G E3 31 a3 Sy "6 3 ai 9A 2r'-T 93 c9 u
I TRAVEL TIME LOG DATE:
{iEATHER:
'/ O HOUR:
LINK NAME & TOWN LINK NO.
ORIGIN
' DESTINATION TRAVEL TIME NODE NO.
NODE NO.
40 a4 as k
ur as sG P
uA 8 ems, k
ua 96 a.7 p
J W4 25 G7 L
45 67 33 E
46 96 39 zt 7 R9 35 5
4g as 3G T
1 45 as a,
6 50 S8 39 y
s(
39 40 L
63-.
38 50 v :, u E
S3 Bu 39 1
stl 33 34 E
ss 72 m
sb 3T 33 1: 95 E
39 3\\
39-T 58
'M 41 6
..i S
33 49-9 ho 4%
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lo)
Lll WJ-E 6 2. -
Qt 45 Z '. u 1
G3 45 41 5 2 '. 3 i E
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Y1 4(p trl n sc.
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9 71 41 4%
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1 79 44 5\\
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G LI I41 El Z:04 J
_ 19p 3l1
TRAVEL TIME LOG DATE:
{iEATHER:
HOUR:
LINK NAME & TOWN LINK NO.
ORIGIN
' DESTINATION TRAVEL TIME NODE NO, NODE NO.
75 51 SA s t we.
1ro T 2.-
53 4oso.
77 5}
&T 9 18 5' 3 ErP1 79 93 s s-I:(q 70 ff1 55 TL 49 scc
-p 51 S7 83
$7 59 I : q, f5LE 516
(<a t:oI 6:i 58-63 i ;ii 8Io b\\
(D S I9 sec.
81 59 (oO c31 sec TsE
'S9 Co 3 i. tr FR (no CoCl p: m 90 (o;5 (ott is r2.
-=
t\\
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ds sec 93 Io(>
73 2.29 R4 G(o (oQ t. 2.9 45 (o t/
Ca6 zc, scc 96
'EP 99 (05 (d9 47 scc 99 LoCl leg t.ta 9T 75 7C->
Em 16D 73 79 e:os-101 11 13 c 30 i
1 0 2-(oR
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\\ O's na 14 til u 104 AETfo$
'M4 16Aa i17 In 5 (ca
~
10fn 74 79 as sc c l'O'1 74 7 (>
- 0 se.
I TRAVEL TIME LOG DATE:
WEATHER:
' p,' / y, %
HOUR:
l LINK NAME & TOWN LINK NO.
ORIGIN
' DESTINATION TRAVEL TIME NODE NO NODE NO.
lM h
_1 77 IE i
srP 19 SaH E
II O 7 (o W8
- 1) i 19
-F 2:.os B
lit 19 30 s z see T 11 3 sn 91 1:o3 h
11 4 93 a3 Y
il s-m
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n 3G 37 5
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in M
si L
ll?
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90 LLO (o I a see-l T
h P
k 3
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li.
,4 42 g
ni,,
L R.
E E
l I
I I
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e I
I APPENDIX C Tile NETSIM MODEL i
I I
I I
I I
I 1944 314 I
The NETSIM Model NETSIM is a traffic network simulation model.
It was ori-ginally designed for the traffic engineer to evaluate alternative network control and traffic management strategies for improving urban traffic flow.
NETSIM was developed for the Federal High-way Administration (FHWA) by the consulting firms of Peak, Marwick & Mitchell and General Applied Science Laboratory (GASL).
NETSIM has been extensively validated through an extensive program of field testing and with field data collected in the Washington, DC area.
Further validation was obtained by test programs in San Jose, CA, as well as in New Jersey.
The model uses microscopic inspection.
This means that NETSIM uses a detailed representation of the road network, and it follows individual vehicles updating their status and posi-tion in short-term intervals.
The road network representation includes:
the link geom-etry (i.e., right turn, thru, left turn or diagonal), link length, number of moving lanes, grade, intersection signalization and entry and exit points.
The model emits vehicies onto the network at antry points and follows each vehicle individually as it travelc along the network until it reaches an exit node.
At this point, the vehicle is taken off the network and statis-l tics updated.
=
The NETSIM model follows vehicles by computing the location
[
and statue of each vehicle every second.
NETSIM simulates vehicle behavior by calculating speed and status using car following, queueing behavior, lane change and vehicle headways and acceptable lag for lane changes.
These distributions were empirically derived by the validation studies.
To keep track of network performance, the model updates statistics on the full network and on each link at the end of each time step (one second).
NETSIM calculates cumulative statistics for the entire network and for each link at the end 1944 315 1
of each subinternval, and whenever requested.
It also keeps a running total of instantaneous link-performance statistics which can be reported at any time during the simulation.
The NETSIM model requires very detailed and extensive data inputs.
There are two basic cypes of inputs:
network data (or exogenous) and embedded data.
The network data is manda-tory and includes line geometry, intersection signalization, link turning movements, link operation, entry link volume, and g
the time of simulation.
Link geometry inputs include:
link 3
length, type of turn and receiving node, and grade of the link.
Link operation inputs include:
number of moving lanes, target l
speed, headway, and lane channelization.
Link turning movements include:
percent of vehicles turning to each destination.
The intersection signalization inputs are the types of control, which include sign, fixed time signal or actuated sig-g nal.
The entry link volume inputs include the flow rate and 5
percent trucks.
The length of subintervals and the total simu-lation can be selected.
The embedded data inputs include the calibration data which are embedded in the model algorithms.
These data inputs are optional and the model uses default values if they are not specified.
These inputs can change the distribution for accept-able gap for turning vehicles, vehicle, speed, headways, and amber phase response.
The acceptable lag for lane change and mean effective vehicle lengths can also be changed with embedded inputs.
The NETSIM uodel reports on system performance by display-ing cumulative and instantaneous statistics for both the full network and individual links.
The cumulative statistics include:
vehicle miles, moving, time, delay time, average speed, average occupancy and vehicle trips.
The instantaneous statistics inelude:
occupancy, number of vehicles discharged, queue length, delay time, average speed and signal code.
The time is also reported for any statistical output.
These statistics pro-vide the information needed to determine when the network is cleared and the effectiveness of traffic of the traffic control strategies.
[944 316 g
4 APPENDIX D MODEL CASE AUTOMOBILE ASSIGNMENTS w
w 1944 317
E_
T/.BLE 1 EVACUATION CASE 1 (2-mile Radius; 1800 Sector)
Case la - 1980 Peak Condition:
(Permanent + Seasonal + Peak Transient = Total Peak Autos)
Case Ib - 1980 Adverse Weather Condition:
(Permanent + Reduced Transient = Adverse Condition Autos)
Automobiles Peak Adverse Condition Weather Peak Reduced Total Total Sectors Permanent Seasonal Transient Transient (Case la)
(Case Ib)
SE 0-1 53 186 0
0 239 53 SE l-2 68 787 761 0
1,616 68 SSE 0-1 22 150 0
0 172 22 SSE l-2 133 32 17 0
182 133 S 0-1 3
1 0
0 4
3 S 1-2 298 1
0 0
299 298 SSW 0-1 6
1 50 0
57 6
SSW 1-2 23 1
0 0
24 23 SW 0-1 4
1 0
0 5
4 SW 1-2 26 1
0 0
27 26 WSW 0-1 3
1 0
0 4
3 WSW 1-2 55 11 63 22 134 77 W 0-1 3
1 0
0 4
3 W 1-2 120 2
0 0
122 120 WNW 0-1 58 1
0 0
59 58 WNW 1-2 18 1
0 0
19 18 NW 0-1 1
0 89 0
90 1
1 NW 1-2 0
0 0
0 0
0 Total 3,057 916 h44318
TABLE 1 (Continued)
EVACUATION CASE 2 (5-mile Radius; 900 Sector)
(Extended to Plymouth Town Bounds)
Case 2a - 1980 Peak Condition:
(Permanent + Seasonal + Peak Transient - Total Peak Autos)
Case 2b - 1980 Adverse Weather Condition:
(Permanent + Reduced Transient = Adverse Condition Autos)
Automobiles (% of Sector)
Peak Adverse Condition Weather Peak Reduced Total Total Sectors Permanent Seasonal Transient Transient (Case 2a)
(Case 2b)
SW 0-1 4
1 0
0 5
4 1-2 26 1
0 0
27 26 2-3 72 4
0 0
76 72 3-4 74 2
0 0
76 74 4-5 202 17 0
0 219 202 5-6 5
11 53 0
69 5
6-7 5
11 50 0
76 5
7-8 5
11 79 0
95 5
8-9 2(40%)
4(40%)
30(25%)
0(25%)
36 2
9-10 1(20%)
2(20%)
24(20%)
0(20%)
27 1
WSW 0-1 3
1 0
0 4
3 1-2 55 11 68 22 134 77 2-3 281 1
0 0
282 281 3-4 98 4
0 0
102 98 4-5 134 13 53 0
200 134 5-6 24 43 0
0 67 24 6-7 140 258 35 0
433 140 7-8 24 43 435 0
502 24 8-9 14(60%)
26(60%)
14(40%)
0(40%)
54 14 W 0-1 3
1 0
0 4
3 1-2 120 2
0 0
122 120 2-3 136 13 263 209 412 345 3-4 511 32 1,445 111 1,988 622 4-5 1,418 10 1,589 192 3,017 1,610 5-6 556 66 1,083 14 1,705 570 6-7 834 98 0
0 932 834 7-8 1,056(95%)
124(95%)
40(95%)
1(95%)
1,220 1,057 8-9 70(50%)
8(50%)
184(80%)
0(80%)
262 70 WNW 0-1 58 1
0 0
59 58 1-2 18 1
0 0
19 18 2-3 0
0 0
0 0
0 3-4 0
19 0
0 19 0
4-5 566 7
665 510 1,228 1,066 5-6 2,023 108 366 133 2,497 2,156 6-7 944(70%)
49(70%)
309(70%)
11(70%)
1,302
-955 Total 17 276 10 675 l944 319
TABLE 1 (Continued)
EVACUATION CASE 3 (5 and 10-mile Radius; 900 Sector)
Case 3a - 1980 Peak Condition:
(Permanent + Seasonal + Peak Transient = Total Peak Autos)
Case 3b - 1980 Adverse Weather Condition:
(Permanent + Reduced Transient = Adverse Condition Autos)
Automobiles Peak Adverse Condition Weather Peak Reduced Total Total Sectors Permanent Seasonal Transient Transient (Case 3al (Case 3bl SE 0-1 53 186 0
0 239 53 1-2 68 787 761 0
1,616 68 2-3 38 110 44 0
192 38 3-4 0
0 0
0 0
0 4-5 0
0 0
0 0
0 5-6 0
0 0
0 0
0 6-7 0
0 0
0 0
0 7-8 0
0 0
0 0
0 8-9 0
0 0
0 0
0 9-10 0
0 0
0 0
0 SSE 0-1 22 150 0
0 172 22 1-2 133 32 17 0
182 133 2-3 299 164 689 11 1,152 310 3-4 311 625 0
0 936 311 4-5 94 263 17 0
374 94 5-6 50 80 67 0
197 50 6-7 17 27 300 0
344 17 7-8 33 53 0
0 86 33 8-9 33 53 0
0 86 33 9-10 33 53 90 0
176 33 S 0-1 3
1 0
0 4
3 1-2 298 1
0 0
299 298 2-3 155 1
0 0
156 155 3-4 250 33 0
0 283 250 4-5 70 7
0 0
77 70 5-6 10 30 67 0
107 10 6-7 19 59 76 0
154 19 7-8 10 30 107 0
147 10 8-9 77 236 117 0
430 77 9-10 77 236 83 0
396 77 SSW 0-1 6
1 50 0
57 6
1-2 23 1
0 0
24 23 2-3 40 1
0 0
41 40 3-4 45 3
0 0
48 45 4-5 53 2
0 0
55 53 5-6 9
68 233 0
310 9
6-7 9
68 241 0
318 9
7-8 9
68 209 22 286 31 8-9 9
68 298 0
375 9
9-10 9
68 254 0
331 9
Total 9,650 2,3W 0944 320
TABLE 1 (Continued)
EVACUATION CASE 4 (10-mile Radius; 900 Sec tor)
(Extended to Duxbury Town Bounds)
Case 4a - 1980 Peak Condition:
(Permanent + Seasonal + Peak Transient = Total Feak Autos)
Case 4b - 1980 Adverse Weather Condition:
(Permanent + Reduced Transient - Adverse Condition Autos)
Automobiles (% of Sector)
Peak Adverse Condition Weather Peak Reduced Total Total
^ Sectors Permanent Seasonal Transient Transient (Case 4 Q (Case 4b)
WNW 8-9 101(10%)
5(10%)
20(15%)
5(15%)
126 106 9-10 34(10%)
2(10%)
2(15%)
0(15%)
38 34 NW 0-1 1
0 89 0
90 1
1-2 0
0 0
0 0
0 2-3 0
0 0
0 0
0 3-4 0
0 0
0 0
0 4-5 1
113 0
0 114 1
5-6 0
0 0
0 0
0 6-7 634 56 0
0 690 634 7-8 1,902 169 135 58 2,206 1,960 8-9 2,536 225 110 10 2,871 2,546 9-10 1,268 113 87 0
1,468 1,268 NNW 0-1 0
0 0
0 0
0 1-2 0
0 0
0 0
0 21 0
0 0
0 0
0 3-4 0
0 0
0 0
0 4-5 1
152 0
0 153 1
5-6 0
0 0
0 0
0 6-7 0
0 0
0 0
0 7-8 0
0 400 0
400 0
8-9 807 121 2,500 0
3,428 807 9-10 1,211 182 1,333 0
2,726 1,211 Total 14,310 8,36d 1944 321
TABLE 1 (Continued)
EVACUATION CASE 5 (10-mile Radius; 900 Sector)
(Including Plymouth, Kingston and Carver)
Case 5a - 1980 Peak Condition:
(Permanent + Seasonal + Peak Transient = Total Peak Autos)
Case 5b - 1980 Adverse Weather condition:
(Permanent + Reduced Transient = Adverse Condition Autos)
Automobiles (% of Sector)
Peak Adverse Condition Weather Peak Reduced Total Total Sectors Permanent Seasonal Transient Transient (Case Sa)
(Case 5b)
SW 0-1 4
1 0
0 5
4 1-2 26 1
0 0
27 26 2-3 72 4
0 0
76 72 3-4 74 2
0 0
76 74 4-5 202 17 0
0 219 202 5-6 5
11 53 0
69 5
6-7 5
11 60 0
76 5
7-8 5
11 79 0
95 5
8-9 5
11 119 0
135 5
9-10 5
11 119 0
135 5
WSW 0-1 3
1 0
0 4
3 l-2 55 11 68 22 134 77 2-3 281 1
0 0
282 281 3-4 98 4
0 0
102 98 4-5 134 13 53 0
200 134 5-6 24 43 0
0 67 24 6-7 140 258 35 0
433 140 7-8 24 43 435 0
502 24 8-9 24 43 35 0
102 24 9-10 24 43 43 0
110 24 W 0-1 3
1 0
0 4
3 1-2 120 2
0 0
122 120 2-3 136 13 263 209 412 345 3-4 511 32 1,445 111 1,988 622 4-5 1,418 10 1,589 192 3,017 1,610 5-6 556 66 1,083 14 1,705 570 6-7 834 98 0
0 932 834 7-8 1,112 131 42 1
1,285 1,113 8-9 139 16 230 0
385 139
~
9-10 139 16 0
0 155 139 L
19h 322
EVACUATION CASE 5 (Continued)
(10-mile Radius; 900 Sector)
(Including Plymouth, Kingston and Carver)
Case 5a - 1980 Peak Condition:
(Permanent + Seasonal + Peak Transient = Total Peak Autos)
Caae 5b - 1980 Adverse Weather Condition:
(Permanent + Reduced Transient - Adverse Condition Autos)
Automobiles (% of Sector)
Peak Adverse Condition Weather l'eak Reduced Total Total Sectors Permanent Seasonal Transient Transient (Case Sa)
(Case 5b)
WNW 0-1 58 1
0 0
59 58 1-2 18 0
0 19 18 2-3 0
0 0
0 0
0 3-4 0
19 0
0 19 0
4-5 556 7
665 510 1,228 1,066 5-6 2,023 108 366 133 2,497 2,156 6-7 1,349 72 442 11
.,863 1,360 7-8 2,023 108 47 23 2,178 2,046 8-9 909(90%)
49(90%)
112(85%)
27(85%)
1,070 936 9-10 303(907.)
16(90%)
9(85%)
0(85%)
328 303 Total 22,115 14,670 1944 323
APPENDIX E TURNING MOVEMEN'S 1
1944 324
Act On :
HMM,INC.-PILGRIM 1 TRAFFIC SIMULATION STUDY SOUTH 0-10 MILE
, PLYMOUTH
, MASS.
5EED FOR RANDOT NUMBER GENETATOT TT POCK MEAN TURNING 90VENF.NTS DESTINATION NODES t-1 N &t; AN E-$ P 3N t &U-F-tt--tEF T-TH RU R T D I AG
- t. E F T THR11 RT ~0TW
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