ML20149J788

Analysis of Time Required to Evacuate Transient & Permanent Population from Various Areas within Plume Exposure Pathway Emergency Planning Zone,San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station Update for 1996-2002

ML20149J788
Person / Time
Site:	San Onofre
Issue date:	06/30/1997
From:	WILBUR SMITH ASSOCIATES
To:
Shared Package
ML13316A219	List: ML13316A218 ML20149J788
References
NUDOCS 9707290098
Download: ML20149J788 (184)

Text

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Analysis of Time Required to Evacuate Transient and Permanent Population from Various Areas within the Plume Exposure Pathway Emergency Planning Zone j

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San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station O

Update for 1996-2002 i

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Prepared for:

Southern California Edison Company

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Rosemead, California Prepared by:

Wilbur Smith Associates June 1997 r:88:: =86

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Contents

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hae Executive Summary i

introduction I

1.1 Study Scope 2

1.2 Emergency Planning Zone 2

1.3 Emergency Response Plans 3

Study Methodology................................

6 2.1 Data Collection 6

2.2 Evacuation Route Network Development 7

2.3 Evacuation Time Assessment Simulations 9

2.4 Recommendations for Reducing Evacuation Time 10 General Assumptions I1 3.1 Public Information and Notification................

I1 3.2 Evacuation Prior to Instructions for Public Evacuation I1 3.3 Traffic Controls............................................

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3.4 Number of Persons and Vehicles Evacuating 12 3.5 Evacuation Route Conditions............................

13 Emergency Planning Zone and Sub-Areas 14 4.1 Evacuation Sectors 14 4.2 Emergency Planning Zone Subsectors 15 Definition of Evacuation Scenarios.....................................

16 5.1 Daytime Summer Weekend Evacuation 16 5.2 Daytime Summer Weekday Evacuation 17 5.3 Nighttime Evacuation 17 5.4 Adverse Weather 17 Evacuation Demand Estimates 18 6.1 Resident and Transient Population Estimates 19 6.2 Estimated Number of Evacuating Vehicles 22 6.3 Population Requiring Evacuation Assistance 24 6.4 SONGS Workers and Visitors 32 6.5 U.S. Marine Corps Base, Camp Pendleton 35

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Contents (continued) n Itw E_agt Evacuation Roadway Network 37 7.1 Major Evacuation Routes 37 7.2 Planned improvements to the Major Roadway Network 39 7.3 Designated Evacuation Routes and Reception Centers 40 7.4 Evacuation Route Link / Node Network..........

41 7.5 Roadway Characteristics for Evacuation Network 41 Notification and Preparation Times for General Public 50 8.1 Public Evacuation Time Components......

50 8.2 Notification and Preparation Times for General Public......

51 Site Area Emergency Evacuation Time Estimates 52 9.1 Evacuation Demand Estimates 52 9.2 Evacuation Time Analysis Cases and Evacuation Routes.

53 9.3 Evacuation Time Estimates 54 O

General Emergency Evacuation Time Estimates 56 V

10.1 Evacuation Time Estimates for General Population 56 10.2 Speciallnstitutions 60 10.3 SONGS Workers and Visitors 62 10.4 U.S. Marine Corps Base, Camp Pendleton 63 10.5 Recommendations for Reducing Evacuation Times of General Public 63 10.6 Planned Roadway improvement Impacts on Evacuation Times of General Populace 64 Earthquake Effects on Evacuation Time 66 11.1 Potential Impairment along Primary Transportation Routes 66 11.2 Public Response Considerations 74 11.3 Evacuation Time Analysis Cases 75 11.4 Evacuation Time Assessment Program 77 j

11.5 Impact on Evacuation Time.......

77 11.6 Conclusions 80 Appendices 1

A.

Evacuation Time Assessment Methodology A-1 i

B.

EPZ Subsectors B-1 C.

Persons and Vehicles Evacuating by Population Centroid C-1 l

D.

Traffic Control Points and Barricade Locations by Jurisdiction.............

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4 Tabulations i

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em Population, Vehicle Demand, and Evacuation Time Estimates S-1 by Evacuation Area - 2002 Summer Weekend Condition iii S-2 EPZ Permanent and Transient Population Summary - 2002 iv S-3 Evacuation Vehicles Generated by Subsector - 2002 v

S-4 Population Estimates for Emergency Planning Zone - Summer Weekend.......

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S-5 Estimate of Vehicle Requirements for Special viii Transportation Assistance..................

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Summary of Evacuation Time Estimates for General Population - 2002...

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S-7 Special Institution Evacuation Time Estimate Summary x

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1 Population Estimates for Emergency Planning Zone - Summer Weekend.......

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EPZ Permanent and Transient Population Summary - 1996...............

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EPZ Permanent and Transient Population Summary - 2002 21 i

4 Evacuation Vehicles Generated by Subsector. 2002 23 5

Public and Private School Enrollment 28 6

Summary of Persons Needing Special Transportation Assistance....

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Estimate of Vehicle Requirements for Special Transportation Assistance.........

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Estimated Number of Vehicles Used by Evacuating SONGS Workers

- General Emergency 35 P

9 Estimated Peak Population and Transportation Requirements for

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Camp Pendleton..........................................

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10 Evacuation Route Link-Node Description by Centroid 42 l

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Tabulations (continued)

Iahin P32s 11 Link-Node Network Identification and Characteristics 43 12 Estimated Number of Evacuation Vehicles Site Area Emergency Level 53 i

13 Summary of Evacuation Time Estimates for General Population 57 l

14 Estimated Rate of Evacuation of North Sector General Population 59 15 Special Institution Evacuation Time Estimate Summary 61 16 Potential Problem Areas on Primary Transportation Route 69 17 Evacuation Time Assessment Summary for Potential Earthquake Effects on Major Routes 79 C-1 EPZ Resident Population Characteristics by Population Centroid...

C-1 C-2 Non-Resident Persons in EPZ by Population Centroid C-2

-i C-3 2002 Resident and Transient Vehicles Evacuating EPZ by Population Centroid...

C-3 I

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Illustrations

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S-1 EPZ Population Distribution by Sector.................

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1 Regional Location Map I

1 2a Study Area - Nonh Sector 2

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. Study Area - South Sector 2

3 Evacuation Route Development - Work Flow 6

t 4a EPZ Nonh Subsectors 15 1

L 4b EPZ South Subsectors 15

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Sa Primary Evacuation Routes in Orange County Ponion of EPZ 37 l

D Sb Primary Evacuation Routes in San Diego County Ponion of EPZ 37 J

4 6a Evacuation Link / Node Network Roadway..........................

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i 6b Evacuation Link / Node Network Roadway..........................

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San Onofre Estimated Daytime Response 51 8

San Onofre Estimated Nighttime Response 51 9a Potential Eanhquake-Related Evacuation Route Closure.s in Orange County Ponion of EPZ...........

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9b Potential Eanhquake-Related Evacuation Route Closures in San Diego County Portion of EPZ........

67 10 Route Closures involving Diamond-Type Interchanges Selected for Evacuation Time Assessment 76 11 Route Closures involving Non-Diamond-Type Interchanges Selected for Evacuation Time Assessment 76 g

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J Illustrations (continued)

Follows pQ Figure Egge 12 Route Closures in Northern San Clemente Selected for Evacuation Time Assessment 76 13 Route Closures Requiring Evacuation to the South r

Selected for Evacuation Time Assessments 76 A-1 Basic Flow Diagram, Evacuation Time Assessment A-1 e

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EXECUTIVE

SUMMARY

v This evaluation Time Estimate Update Report has been prepared in response to Nuclear Regulatory Commission requirements which state that information regarding time estimates for evacuation of the resident and transient population within a radius of approximately ten miles from nuclear reactor sites (in this case, San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station) should be updated periodically to reflect changes in local conditions. The evacuation time estimate assessment presented herein reflects resident and transient population anticipated for the area in mid-2002.

S.1 Emercency Plannine 7one Ponulation Previous evacuation time estimates prepared in 1993 for Southern California Edison Company, operator of San Onofre Nuclear Generating Stations (SONGS), reflected 1996 population estimates. Since 1993, resident population within the approximate 10-mile Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) has increased by approximately 6 percent, from an estimated 121,700 persons to a current 1996 population of 129,500 persons. Based on population growth forecasts obtained from local and county agencies, population p

within the EPZ is expected to increase 8 percent (from 1996 levels) by mid-2002, to 139,500.

O S.2 Kev Assumotions which Influence Evacuation Time The following assumptions used in the analysis of evacuation conditions are considered to have the most significant influence on evacuation time estimates:

• For General Emergency level scenarios, it is assumed that all persons, residents, and visitors within the 5-mile,10-mile, and EPZ areas evacuate.

• Evacuation vehicle demand estimates are based on at least one vehicle being evacuated for each auto-owning household.

• Time estimates do not reflect the possibility of partial " voluntary" evacuation of transients in the area prior to official notice given to evacuate the general public.

• Time estimates do not reflect the Capistrano Unified School District (CUSD) plan to direct a precautionary evacuation of school children during school hours if CUSD believes conditions warrant a precautionary evacuation.

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e Public transportation would be provided in all cases to residents without personal transportation, I

including persons having restricted mobility such as those who are homebound, in hospitals and retirement / convalescent homes. In the case of a weekday evacuation when family commuters may be outside the area, transportation would also be provided for school children and "one-auto" households.

e Daytime evacuation scenarios assume summertime visitation (beach-goers and tourists) conditions in the EPZ for weekday evacuation and peak summertime visitation for weekend evacuation, e Transient population includes beach-goers, tourists, and non-resident workers.

I e Time estimates for the Site Area Emergency evacuation assume:

San Onofre State Beach area has previously evacuated (during Alert level);

- Non-essential SONGS personnel will not be evacuated until the General Emergency level; and Simultaneous evacuation of Camp Pendleton Marine Corps military personnel and dependents.

S.3 EPZ. Sector Population and Vehicle Demand Estimated 2002 sector population for peak summer weekend conditions is illustrated in Figure S-1. The highest sector population (120,500 persons) occurs in the Northwest EPZ sector, and the highest concentration of population (74,400 persons) is projected in the 5 to 10-mile ring. Ring totals represent the total EPZ subsector populations which would be evacuated in each radial sector.

i Projected 2002 population and vehicle demand estimates used in the assessment of evacuation times for a General Emergency evacuation with peak summer weekend conditions are presented in Table S-1. In this table, permanent and transient population and vehicle estimates are listed by designated subsector and summarized cumulatively by evacuation area.

Summarized in Tables S 2 and S-3 are 2002 EPZ subsector population and vehicle demand estimates which were applied to the assessment of General Emerge.ncy evacuation times for weekend, weekday, j

and nighttime evacuation scenarios. A similar tabulation listing 2002 estimates of population by EPZ subsector and scenario is presented in Table 2 (Section 6.1).

A comparison of peak summer weekend EPZ population estimates for 1993,1996, and 2002 is presented in Table S-4. In this table, population estimates are summarized by individual community, state beach, and Camp Pendleton Marine Corps Base.

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SSW SSE I - I POPULATION TOTAL' R.o cuMut4Tm RING MILES POPULATION TOTAL MILES POPULATION LEGEND:

o.2 12.100 02 12.100 12.0 ]

Population X 1,000 2-5 2s m SS 42 m 6-10 74.400 0 10 116,400 Less Than 100 Population 10-EPZ 57,500 0-EPZ 173.900

• ESTIMATE REPRESENT PEAK SUMMER WEEKENO CONOITION NOTE ESTIMATE DO NOT INCLUDE SONGS PERSONNEL i

E.P.Z. POPULATION DISTRIBUTION BY SECTOR O

2002 eaOaECTiON FIGURE S-1

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Table S 1 POPULATION, VEIIICLE DEMAND, AND EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES BY EVACUATING AREA 2002 SUMMER WEEKEND CONDITIONS i

Pepalauan Ee euaung Vehicles Eeneusting General Population Evacuation Ne (Hrst Areas & Corresponding subsectors Perinament Trenaient Total Pennanent Trnaa6ent Total Nonnel Condiuon Adverse Condition Populauen Pepeleuen Population Popetetlan Population Penand (a)

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Veldr'.se _ _ Vehicles Vehicles North l South North l South WmlIN TWO WLES San Onofre State Beach (11) 0 8,508 8,508 0

1 682 2,682 0 2 Mile Total 0

8,508 8,508 0

1682 2,682 175(b) 175(b) wmRN m'E MILES 0 2 Mile Total 0

8,508 8,508 0

1 682 1682 San Clemente (!)

5.523 1 955 8,478 3,408 1,018 4,426 San Clemente (2) 13,917 431 14.348 9,591 279 9.870 San Clemente (3) 12,740 9,039 21,779 8,082 3.457 11.539 0 5 Mile Total 32,180 20,933 53,113 21,081 7,436 28,517 5.00 1 75 5,50 1 75

%TUl!N TEN MILES P

0 S ule Tutal 32,180 20,933 53,113 21.081 7,436 28,517 San Clemente (4) 18.228 241 18,469 9,975 196 10,171 Doheny State Parli (5) 235 6,595 6,830 146 1,900 1 046 Dana Point (6) 7,826 1,437 9,263 4.888 843 5,731 San Juan Caputrano (7) 8.452 388 8,840 4,212 291 4,503 010 Mile Total 66,921 29,594 96,515 40,302 10,666 50,968 5.50 175 6.25 1 75 f

smuN EF2 BOUNDARY 010 W!eTotal 66,921 29,594 96,515 40,302 10,666 50,968 San juan Capistrano (8) 22,714 1.455 24.169 11,199 965 12.164 Dana Point (9) 14,151 2.116 16.267 8,840 1.211 10,051 Dana Point (10) 16,170 788 16,958 10,108 427 10.535 O f7Z Total 119,956 33,953 153,909 70.449 13,269 83,718 6.25 1 75 7.25 1 75 (a) Where evacumuon suhsectors are spht by designated radius imundanes, the total populataon within those subsectors has been included within the evacuatmo area (refer to Figure 44).

(b) 1:vacuatmo tune estunate for entire 0 2 mile populaten Note Faumates are for general population only and do not mclude SONOS personnel or Camp Pendleton Manne Corps Base populations.

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Table S-2 EPZ PERMANENT AND TRANSIENT POPULATION

SUMMARY

2002 Resident Non-Resident Subsector (All Summer Weekend Summer Weekday Nightime Scenarios)

Worker Beach /

Worker Beach /

Worker Beach /

Visitor Visitor Visitor i1 0

49 8,459 33 4,252 5

956 1

5,523 66 2,889 111 2,052 16 1,094 2

13,917 192 239 866 278 38 85 3

12,740 798 8,241 1,223 4,126 44 240 4

18,228 225 16 832 16 5

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235 27 6,568 11 2,189 0

478 6

7,826 375 1,062 864 637 11 0

7 8,452 292 96 989 64 40 0

8 22,714 712 743 2,213 520 67 127 9

14,151 459 1,657 667 828 38 212 10 16,170 98 690 459 266 16 32 TOTAL:

119,957 3.293 30,659 8,268 15.227 281 3.230

' Excludes Camp Pendleton Marine Corps (Subsector 12) and SONGS (Subsector 13).

Refer to Section 6.4 and 6.5 for population estimates related to these specific areas.

Wilbur Smith Associates D

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. D EVACUATION VEHICLES GENERATED BY SUBSECTOR*

2002 Resident Non-Resident Subsector Summer Nighttime Summer Weekend Summer Weekday Nightime 1

Weekend &

Worker Beach /

Worker Beach /

Worker Beach /

Weekday Visitor Visitor Visitor 11 0

0 41 2,641 27 1,317 5

273 1

3,408 3,679 55 963 93 684 14 365 2

9,591 10,353 160 119 722 139 32 42 3

8.082 8,725 664 2,793 1,020 1,421 37 121 4

9,975 10,767 188 8

693 8

5 3

5 146 158 23 1,877 9

625 0

137 6

4,888 5.292 312 531 720 319 9

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4212 4,548 243 48 824 32 33 0

8 l 1,199 12,095 593 372 1,844 260 56 64 9

8,840 9,569 383 828 556 414 32 106

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10 10.108 10,942 82 345 383 133 14 16 TOTAL:

70,449 76,128 2,744 10,524 6,891 5J51 235 1.126

' Excludes Camp Pendleton Marine Corps (Subsector 12) and SONGS (Subsector 13).

Refer to Section 6.4 and 6.5 for population estimates related to these specific areas.

Wilbur Smith Associates i

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d Table S-4 POPULATION ESTIMATES FOR EMERGENCY PLANNING ZONE SUMMER WEEKEND 1993 1996 2002 Area Resident Transient Resident Transient Resident Transient San Clemente 42,900 <ai 10,000 (a>o) 46,600 ca>

10,800 exc3 50,400

<a) 11,500 o>

San Juan Capistrano 27,600

<d>

1,700 exc3 28,600 ca) 1,700 exc3 31,200 <dj 1,800

Dana Point 34,000 <ei 2,700 <bxc3 34,800

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4,100 exc3 38,400

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4,300 o>

Doheny State Beach 0

6,600 (sxo 0

6,200 exf) 0 6,600 <sxo San Clemente State Beach 1,000 axo 1,100 exo 1,200 oxr>

San Onofre State Beach 0

5,500 exr>

0 8,000 exr, 0

8,500 exo Camp Pendleton 17,200 m 500 a>

19,500 m 500

<h) 19,500 m 500 (63 Total:

121,700 28,000 129,500 32,400 139,500 34,400 (a) Source: San Clemente Planning Department (b) Estimated by Wilbur Smith Associatet (c) Source: Orange County Administrative Office (1993 and 1996 lay extrapolat,on)

(d) Source-San Juan Capistrano Department of Planning Semces (e) Source: Dana Point Planning Department (f) Source: California Department of Parks and Recreation (g) Source: US MarineCorps.

(h) Estimated maximum utilization l

• Neghgible.

I Wilbur Smith Associates vi

1 S.4 Special Transoortation Assistance Needs A portion of the population will require special transportation assistance. This group consists of several components, including home-bound persons and residents of certain special institutions, such as hospitals, nursing homes, etc. A summary of estimated vehicle requires to evacuate these groups is given in Table S-5.

S.5 Site Area Emernency Level Evacuation Time Estimates The analysis of a " precautionary" evacuation of Camp Pendleton Marine Corps personnel and dependents at the Site Area Emergency level indicated that these independent population segments could be evacuated beyond the EPZ boundary within 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> and 30 minutes and 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> and 45 minutes, following notification.

The Emergency Response Plan for SONGS does not require the evacuation of non-essential SONGS personnel until the General Emergency level is declared. Evacuation of Marine Corps base personnel and dependents at the Site Area Emergency level would depend on the nature and severity of events j

which have occurred at SONGS.

S.6 General Emergency Evacuation Time Estimates i

j Time estimates for General Emergency evacuation scenarios are summarized in Table S-6. Evacuation of population within the more densely populated north sector EPZ would require a maximum of 7 hours8.101852e-5 days <br />0.00194 hours <br />1.157407e-5 weeks <br />2.6635e-6 months <br /> and 15 minutes for the adverse weather summer weekend scenario and a minimum of 6 hours6.944444e-5 days <br />0.00167 hours <br />9.920635e-6 weeks <br />2.283e-6 months <br /> for the i

i nighttime scenario. Peak summer weekend conditions with normal weather would require a 6-hour and 15-minute evacuation time, a

Special evacuation control procedures which address bottleneck locations could reduce 5-mile and 10-mile area evacuation time estimates by approximately I hour to I hour and 15 minutes. Recommended procedures for reducing evacuation times are presented in Section 10.5.

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Table S-5 C\\ ]'

ESTIMATE OF VEHICLE REQUIREMENTS FOR SPECIAL TRANSPORTATION ASSISTANCE i

Non-Population Category School School Nighttime Day Day Bus Transportation Persons at Home a) 0-car households 120 101 120 b) 1-car households (car out of area) 0 85 0

c) Homebound 6

6 6

Subtotal:

126 192 126 Schools 0

249 0

Hospitals 1

1 1

Ch Nursing / Retirement Homes / Health Care Ctrs.

11 11 11 Transients without autos 17 12 2

TOTAL BUSES 155 465 140 Ambulances Persons at home 2

2 2

Hospitals 58 58 58 TOTAL AMBULANCES 60 60 60 Wheelchair Vans Persons at home 16 16 16 Hospitals 12 12 12 Other facilities 38 38 TOTAL WHEELCHAIR VANS 66 66 66 viii

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Table S-6

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SUMMARY

OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR GENERAL POPULATION 2002 A. With Existing Evacuation Routing Plan Evacuation Time (in llours)(b) 0-2 Miles 0-5 Miles 0-10 Miles 0-EPZ Boundary (c)

Condition North South North Only North South Summer Weekend 2.75 5.00 2.75 5.50 6.25 2.75 Summer Weekday 2.50 5.00 2.50 5.50 6.25 2.50 Nighttime 2.00 4.25 2.00 5.50 6.00 2.00 Adverse Weather (d) 2.75 5.50 2.75 6.25 7.25 2.75 B. With Balanced Evacuation Routing on I-5 and PCH Evacuation Time (in liours)(b) 0-2 Miles 0-5 Miles 0-10 Miles 0-EPZ Boundary (c)

Condition North South North Only North South Summer Weekend 4.00 5.00 6.25 Summer Weekday 4.00 5.00 6.25 Nighttime 3.50 4.50 5.75 Adverse Weather (d) 4.25 5.50 7.25 (a) Does not include U.S. Marine Corps Base. Camp Pendleton, (b) Elapsed tune between public wanung s nd the crossms of the EPZ boundary by the last exitmg vehicle.

(c) The EPZ boundary in the south sector is located along the 10 mile radius arc.

(d) Reflects peak summer weekend permanent and transient populanons and 15 percent reduction in the capacities of all evacuation toadways.

• Time esumated for this sector would not be affected by balanced evacuation routmg on northbound 1 15 and PCH.

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S.7 Special Institution Evacuation Time Estimates General Emergency evacuation time estimates determined for special institutions identified within the EPZ are shown below in Table S-7.

Table S-7 SPECIAL INSTITUTION EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE SUKMARY s

Evacuation time Ghs. by Sector Institution EMilgi 10 Miles _

Entire EPZ Scenario Schools 3.75 4.25 5.50 Weekday fiospitals 5.00 6.00 All i

Retirement Homes 5.00 6.00 6.00 All U.S. Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton 2.75 5.25 5.25 All SONGS Non-Essential Personnel

- Northbound Evacuation 3.25 Weekday Weekday

- Southbound Evacuation 2.25

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Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION The San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station (SONGS) is located in San Diego County, California, approximately 4 miles southesst of San Clemente and 15 miles north of Oceanside (see Figure 1). The station is situated on a man-made shelf cut into the San Onofre Bluffs between Interstate Route 5 and the Pacific Ocean. The Southern California Edison Company, operator of SONGS, has been generating electricity from Unit I since January 1%8, from Unit 2 since August 1982,' and from Unit 3 since April 1983.

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission has requested that licensees of nuclear power plants provide information regarding time estimates for evacuation of the resident and transient population within a radius of about 10 miles from the nuclear reactor sites. The evacuatian time estiastes are for use by those emergency response personnel charged with recommending and deciding on protective actions during an emergency.

O The Nuclear Regulatory Commission requests that the evacuation time estimates should be updated as local conditions change. Accordingly, the Southern California Edison Company has retained Wilbur Smith Associates to update the evacuation time estimates for the land areas surrounding SONGS.

The previous evacuation time estimates for the SONGS area were prepared in 1993, with results documented in a 1993 study report.' The study included evacuation time estimates for projected 1996 area population.

e Moderate population growth has occurred in the area since the 1993 evacuation time analysis Current developer activities and plans indicate that slightly more than expected new development has occurred since the 1996 projections were prepared (in 1993).

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' Analysis of Time Required to Emcuate Transient and Permanent Populationfrom Various Areas within the Plume Exposure Pathuey Emergency Planning Zone, San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station, Updatefor 1993-1996, prepared for Southern Califomia Edison Company by Wilbur Smith Associates, December 1993, 1

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1.1 Study Scone The Southern California Edison Company requested that the evacuation time estimates reflect resident and transient populations anticipated for the area in mid-2002. This would provide emergency response personnel with evacuation time estimates that would continue to be useful as the anticipated new development occun, within the area. The evacuation time study includes:

1.

The identification of resident and transient population within the area in mid-1996, based upon available information, and the estimated numbers and distribution of population by mid-2002.

2.

Identification of existing institutions which require special evacuation assistance, as well as those known new institutions planned for construction.

3.

An evaluation of the evacuation routes relative to their traffic-carrying capacity during an evacuation.

4.

Estimation of evacuation time requirements for the resident and transient population, and special institutions, under normal and adverse weather conditions.

5.

The assessment of evacuation time requirements if major damage occurs to the primary evacuation routes as a result of an earthquake (or similar disruptive event) occurring prior to, or during, the evacuation.

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This evacuation time estimate study provides the information and uses the presentation formats described in Appendix 4, " Evacuation Time Estimates within the Plum Exposure Pathway Emergency Planning Zone, Revision l' of NUREG-0654.2 1.2 Emercency Plannine Zone Evacuation time estimates were prepared to reflect full or partial evacuation of the Plume Exposure Pathway Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ). As stipulated by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the EPZ must include those land areas associated within an approximate 10-mile radius of the SONGS site.

As illustrated in Figures 2a and 2b, the 10-mile radius EPZ boundary encompasses all of the cities of San Clemente, San Juan Capistrano, Dana Point, and the northern section of the United States Marine Corps Base (Camp Pendleton). Although the 10-mile radius actually bisects the San Juan Capistrano, Dana Point, and Ortega areas, the entire area and population of these communities has been included in the EPZ evacuation time estimates and incorporated within the emergency response plans for the local agencies. This expanded planning area is hereinafter referred to as the "EPZ" or study area.

2" Criteria for Preparation and Evaluation of Radiological Emergency Response Plans and Preparedness in Support of Nuclear Power Plants," (U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, November 1980, Revision 1).

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i 1.2.1 EPZ Pooulation

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Within the EPZ boundary, there are four urbanized areas with an estimated population of approximately j

129,500 residents in 1996, as shown in Table 1. By mid-2002, the resident population may increase to j

139,500. The majority of the residents is located within the Orange County portion of the EPZ. which j

includes an estimated 110,000 residents in 1996 and 120,000 in 2002, or approximately 86 percent of j

the EPZ resident population. The remaining EPZ resident population (19,500 in both 1996 and 2002) is located in San Diego County with the Camp.Per.'dleton United States Marine Corps Base, f

The peak transient population occurs within the EPZ during summer weekends and holidays. During i

these peak periods, large numbers of persons from outside the EPZ visit the State and local beach recreation areas as well as local tourist attractions. Also included in the transient population segment is i

employees who work within the EPZ, but reside outside the EPZ. The estimated transient population on a peak summer weekend day is 32,400 and 34,400 in 1996 and 2002, respectively.

)

1.2.2 Maior Transoortation Facilities 1

j One interstate route (I-5) and two state routes (SR 1 and SR 74) currently serve the area within the EPZ limits. Interstate Route 5 (San Diego Freeway) is the primary north-south route serving traffic between Orange and San Diego Counties.

State Route 1 (Pacific Coast Highway) provides secondary north-south access within the northern part of the EPZ. State Route 74 (Ortega Highway) is the only regional east-west roadway within the study area. The Ortega Highway is a winding, mountain-area roadway which connects the area to Interstate

{

Route 15, approximately 32 miles to the east.

The newly constructed State Route 73 Toll Road (San Joaquin Hills Transportation Corridor), a north-south roadway which connects to I-5 approximately three miles north of State Route 74, was opened to traffic in late November,1996. This new six-lane facility, which connects to State Route 73 in Irvine, i

significantly increases the capacity for northbound evacuation traffic.

Figures 2a and 2b illustrate the network of arterial and freeway facilities which presently are the major l

travelways in the study area. These major roadways are restricted somewhat by geographic features and tend either to parallel the coastline or follow the inland valleys and canyons.

1

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1.3 L'mergency Response Plans i

This study has been completed in consultation and cooperation with the primary local response agencies responsible for evacuation planning and implementation within the area. The evacuation time estimates presented in this study were developed to reflect the plans and procedures set forth in the relevant i

emergency response plans which have been developed and adopted by the various local agencies. These 3

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Table 1 POPULATION ESTIMATES FOR EMERGENCY PLANNING ZONE SUMMER WEEKEND 1993 1996 2002 Area Resident Tmnsient Resident Transient Resident Transient San Clemente 42,900 <a3 10,000 taxw>

46,600 ta>

10,800 exc>

50,400 <a) 11,500 o>

San Juan Capistrano 27,600 <d) 1,700 exc3 28,600

<d>

1,700 exc3 31,200 <d) 1,800 (b>

Dana Point 34,000

<e>

2,700 ove>

34,800

<e>

4,100 (6xc3 38,400 te>

4,300 <si Doheny State Beach 0

6,600 exf3 0

6,200 exo 0

6,600 ano San Clemente State Beach 1,000 exr>

1,100 exo 1,200 exo San Onotre State Beach 0

5,500 exo 0

8,000 <dxo 0

8,500 <sxo Camp Pendleton 17,200 to 500 ch) 19,500 (g) 500 ch3 19,500 co 500

<h>

Total:

121,700 28,000 129,500 32.400 139,500 34,400 (a) Source: San Clemente Plannmg Department (b) Fhted by Wilbur Smith Associaret (c) Source Orange County Administratm Offire (1993 and 1996 lay extrapolation).

(d> Source: San Juan Capistrano Department t 4 Planning Servuet (e) Source: Dana Point Plarning Department (f) Source: California Departmentof Parks and Recreatios (g) Source: U.S. Marine Carpa.

(b) Estimated maximum utilaation

• Negligibk.

Wilbur Smith Associates 4

h

l plans set forth the agency responsibilities, assigned functions, and proadures to be utilized in the event of a radiological incident at SONGS. The principal emergency response plans include:

O e

Emergency Plan fcr San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station Units 1, 2 & 3, Revision 6.5, December 1996; e

County of Orange Nuclear Power Plant Emergency Plan for the San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station, July 1995; i

e San Diego County Nuclear Power Station Emergency Response Plan, December 1990; e

City of Dana Point Emergency Plan, March 1996; e

City of San Clemente Multihazard Emergency Response Plan, August 1994; Nuclear Power Plant (SONGS) Emergency Response Plan, City of San Juan Capistrano, May e

1995; 4

e United States Marine Corps Camp Pendleton Emergency Management Plan, March 1996; Department of California Highway Patrol, Border Division Nuclear Response Plan for the San e

Onofre Nuclear Generating Station, August 1995;

' O 4

Capistrano Unified School District Emergency Guide, San Onofre Nuclear Power Plant, August 1995; Pendleton Coast State Parks Emergency Pian, December 1989; and State of California Nuclear Power Plant Emergency Response Plan, May 1993, e

i 1

1 1

5 i

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Chapter 2 STUDY METHODOLOGY The evacuation time assessment was conducted through the use of a computerized transportation model l

package developed by Wilbur Smith Associates especially for the purpose of estimating time requirements and related information for evacuation of large areas and populations. This model provides a simulation of the evacuation traffic conditions, given the public response characteristics, route capacities, and numbers of evacuating vehicles. The methodology for applying this computer model to assess evacuation j

time requirements can be divided into four phases: Data collection; development of the evacuation network; the computer evacuation time assessment for various scenarios; and analysis and development of recommendations to reduce evacuation time. A general description of the methodology is illustrated in Figure 3 and summarized in the following sections.

i 1

2.1 Data Collection Collection of the data necessary for the evacuation time estimates includes the following efforts:

)

Review of Emergency Response Plans for the various jurisdictions and agencies within the EPZ:

Inventory of existing highway facilities, including facility, type, number of lanes, operating speeds, and traffic controls; Review of available land use information, demographic data, employment data, and future plans j

and forecasts; and Assembly of information for recreational facilities, schools, and special institutions within the area.

Contacts were made with local and regional planning agencies, County and State transportation departments, and local and County officials responsible for emergency response planning. Available data on existing traffic characteristics, transportation facilities, and land uses were supplemented by extensive i

field reconnaissance in the EPZ.

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SPEID, EVACUATION CAPACITY CENTROID VEHICLE DEMAND I f If If

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v INPUT TO EVACUATION TIME ASSESSMENT PROGRAM EVACUATION ROUTE DEVELOPMENT WORK FLOW FIGURE 3

2.2 Evacuation Route Network Development O]

The evacuation routes described in the EPZ Emergency Response Plans were used to define an evacuation

('

roadway network for input to the evacuation time estimate computer model. The procedure for accomplishing this is illustrated in Figure 3 and described in the following paragraphs.

2.2.1 Development of EPZ Base Maps Base maps of the study area were initially prepared using USGS Quadrangle Maps. Since the most recent USGS maps of this area were last revised in 1975, current maps from local municipality and private map sources were also utilized to update details of the area roadway network and the areas of development.

2.2.2 Determination of Plannine Zone Boundaries The EPZ was first divided into various planning sectors in a manner which complies with the format requested by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. These sectors were further subdivided into planning subsectors which are used in the respective County Emergency Response Plans ta facilitate public communication and instructions. Subsector boundaries generally follow readily identifiable natural or man-made features and boundaries. The criteria by which these sectors and subsectors were developed g

are discussed in Chapter 4.

s 2.2.3 Definition of Population Centroids The area population was assigned to individual planning subsectors. In most instances, the subsector areas were too large to relate to the capacities of local access routes to the primary evacuation routes.

Therefore, it was necessary to subdivide most planning subsectors into a number of population centroids with each centroid representing a single, or several neighborhood (s). The number and size of centroid j

areas were generally governed by the number of arterial roadways and interchanges providing access from each subsector to the major evacuation route facilities.

The traffic routing from each centroid to the major evacuation routes was determined on the basis of directness and available roadway capacity. Also, where possible, centroids from the same subsector were ultimately routed onto the same principal evacuation route. This facilitates the process by which the public is informed of evacuation routes and their corresponding assigned reception center.

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l 2.2.4 Development of Roadway Link / Node Descriptions f

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To employ a computerized time assessment, the roadways to be used as evacuation routes must be defined as a series of " links" and " nodes." Each link represents a specific segment of roadway which has common geometric features as well as similar operational characteristics. A pair of nodes identifies the

]

limits of each link, and nodes are located wherever evacuation routes:

intersect or converge; or e

change operational characteristics.

e Each link was described by the two node numbers-the "A" node at the beginning and the "B" node at the end of the link. The traffic characteristics of each link in the evacuation network were determined through field review and traffic engineering analyses. A listing of the link characteristics was prepared identifying the two link node numbers, the length of link, the operating speed, and the link capacity (the i

number of lanes multiplied by the assigned capacity per lane). The operating speeds and land capacities reflect average operating conditions.

2.2.5 Centroid Population and Vehicles The numbers of evacuating persons and vehicles from the area represented by each centroid were o

generally obtained by increasing the information developed and used in the 1993 study by the estimated Cl growth within each area. The 1993 study estimates were based on 1990 census information, local i

jui sdiction and State park records, and local employment estimates. The 1996 and 2002 resident and transient estimates were made as follows:

1.

The estimated number of 1996 residents for San Clemente, San Juan Capistrano, and Dana Point was obtained from local planning agencies.

2.

The geographic distribution of population increases, which have occurred since the 1993 evacuation time estimate study, was based on: development project plans initially identified in the 1993 study; Orange County Environmental Management Agency (OCEMA) demogrcphic data; and recent demographic information obtained from San Clemente, San Juan Capistrano, and Dana Point planning agencies.

3.

Population projections for 2002 in San Clemente, San Juan Capistrano, and Dana Point were based on estimates provided by the local planning agencies. The distribution of new residents within each City was based on: information provided by the local planning agencies which reflects l

developer proposals and/or building permit projections; and OCEMA demographic projections.

4.

State Park Beach usage was based on peak visitation records for the 1996 summer season. State

(]

and City of San Clemente beach usage was increased by approximately 1 percent per year, where V

not limited by parking constraints.

8

S.

The 1996 and 2002 employment estimates for the three cities were estimated using employment information compiled in the 1990 and 1993 studies and updated to reflect recent and anticipated commercial development identified by local agencies. The estimated additional employment was distributed among identified new or planned commercial developments and existing commercial areas.

6.

Average household size and vehicle ownership statistics obtained from the 1990 census were applied to each community to estimate the number of vehicles per households and persons in households without vehicles in 1996 and 2002.

The estimated population and numbers of vehicles are presented in Chapter 6.

2.2.6 Identification of Special Institutions and Recreation Area Several population segments would require special evacuation consideration. These include resident population not having access to an automobile, special needs citizens, and special institutions and areas such as schools, nursery schools, hospitals, nursing homes, jails, and beaches. The evacuation requirements and time estimates for these were considered by individual analyses separate from the other computer simulations.

2.3 Evacuation Time Assessment Simulation The evacuation time assessment was performed through the use of an evacuation simulation computer model. A general description of the evacuation time assessment model is presented below. A more detailed description of the computer model and procedures involved is presented in Appendix A.

i For each evaluation time simulation, the number of trips originating from each centroid is specified by the user. These trips are loaded onto the network at the rate corresponding to the composite mobilization time distribution representing public response time following an evacuation order. This mobilization time is the combination ofindividual time distributions to receive the warning, to travel home (if necessary),

l and to make preparations to leave home. Also input to the computer program is the route to be followed by the vehicles evacuating from each individual centroid.

In the evacuation simulation procedure, the total evacuation period is analyzed in a series of small time increments. Within each time increment, trips are loaded onto the roadway network from the zone centroids in accordance with the mobilization time distribution. Each vehicle, or group of vehicles, flows through the network with progress along its evacuation route initially determined by the operating speeds assigned to each roadway section.

Where the number of vehicles seeking to use a specific link in a given time period exceeds the capacity of the links, the simulation model begins to register traffic queues on links approaching the point of 9

constraint. Where queues build up along a route, they introduce a delay time on the constrained link (roadway segment) and on links furthe.r upstream. Each vehicle entering the queue will experience a proportionate time delay while moving through the queuing area. These delays are encountered by all i

traffic on the capacity-constrained links, until the vehicle volumes decrease to below the link capacity.

Once beyond the point of constraint, the vehicles again regain the normal link operating speeds until they either encounter a new queue or pass beyond the evacuation area.

The model produces several kinds of evaluation information. these include the total evacuation time and a distribution of the percentage of trips reaching the EPZ boundary by elapsed time from start of l

evacuation. The above distributions may also be produced for trips leaving from any specified subareas within the total evacuation area. Average travel time and delay time is calculated for trips exiting the j

EPZ for each successive time increment within the total evacuation period.

1 i

l The simulation model can also provide " snapshots" of transport system conditions at specified instants of time within the evacuation period. These snapshots consist of link volume, queue lengths, average 2

delay by link, and volume-capacity ratios for each link in the system.

2.4 Recommendations for Reducing Evacuation Time 1

j Following the analysis of evacuation times for several scenarios, centroid evacuation assignments were i

re-evaluated to determine whether alternative routings could reduce the overall evacuation time. After

,V centroid routings were reassigned to balance vehicle demand on primary evacuation routes, the network j

was checked by re-running the evacuation time assessment program. Recommendations for reducing evacuation times are presented in Section 10.5.

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Chapter 3 i

GENERAL ASSUMPTIONS J

Various assumptions were necessary in the estimation of the numbers of persons and vehicles which would evacuate and the analysis of evacuation times. The most significant of these are identified in Chapters 6 and 7.

3.1 Public Information and NotifictgjloD 1.

All residents and/or employees in the EPZ have been provided, in advance, with sufficient information regarding evacuation instructions and the assigned evacuation route from their place of residence or employment.

2.

The community alert siren system is operational and is used to alert the EPZ population, followed by instructions to evacuate through radio and television broadcasts and public address systems.

3.2 Evacuation Prior to In;Lructions for Public Evacuation 1.

During an Alert condition, a precautionary evacuation of visitors and campers at San Onofre State Beach adjacent to SONGS would be carried out by the State Parks and Recreation Department with the assistance of SONGS operating staff.

2.

The Marine Corps at Camp Pendleton plans to evacuate dependents from the housing and recreaticaal areas near SONGS at the Site Area Emergency level. The time estimates for evacuation of the general population assume that the Marine Corps dependents have evacuated the area prior to the instmetions for evacuation of the general population. For purposes of conservatism, San Onofre State Beach visitors and non-essential SONGS personnel and visitors have been included in the general public evacuation time estimates.

3.

Many transients in the area (beach visitors, tourists, and workers), as well as some residents, may voluntarily decide to evacuate after the public becomes aware of a possible problem at SONGS-but before the general public is instructed to evacuate all, or a portion of, the EPZ. To the extent bV 11

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this takes place, estimates of general public evacuation time are conservative because they are i~

I based on all persons, including CUSD school children and other than Marine Corps Base, Camp Pendleton dependents remaining within the area until they are instructed to evacuate.

i j

3.3 Traffic Controls f

1.

It is assumed that the traffic network within the EPZ has been isolated frorr. external traffic.

]

Diversion of through traffic around the affected area is assumed to bgin within 30 minutes after i

the evacuation warning has been issued.

2.

Most traffic control officers and barricades for the direction of traffic within the EPZ are assumed j

.to be in place within 60 to 90 minutes after the evacuation warning.

1-i i

3.4 Number of Persons and Vehicles Evacuatine 1.

Emergency evacuation of the general public from the EPZ will be performed largely from the home by the family as a unit. In this analysis, it is assumed that for all scenarios, resident

{

households which own one vehicle would evacuate as a single unit thereby generating one

]

evacuating vehicle. For households that own more than one vehicle, the number of vehicles

)

utilized to evacuate the family unit is estimated based on the following assumptions-O a.

For daytime summer weekend and weekday scenarios - 50 percent of the two-vehicle i-households would generate one vehicle and the remaining 50 percent would generate two vehicles. This reflects, in part, that many of the household members would be outside of the 1

area with one of the household vehicles.

i b.

For the nighttime scenario - 25 percent of the two-vehicle households would generate one 4

j vehicle and the remaining 75 percent would generate two vehicles. This assumption recognizes that most of the household members and vehicles would be at home at night.

4 c.

For all scenarios - three (or more)-vehicle households would generate two vehicles.

2.

It has been observed that not all persons will evacuate the EPZ. "In many cases, even when presented with a grave threat, people refuse to evacuate."' It is believed that a majority of this hesitance to evacuate is based on fear of exposing their property to looting and varulalism.

Notwithstanding this evidence, this time assessment study assumed that all Persons, residems ar.d visitors, evacuate.

' Evacuation Risks-An Evaluation, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Radiation Programs, EPA-

$20/6-74-002, June,1974, p. 48.

12 t

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3.

More than three-quarters of the EPZ iabor force (non-military) work outside of the EPZ, with almost all commuting to work by personal automobile.

4 a.

For estimating the number of vehicles evacuating, it was assumed that a minimum of one vehicle would be evacuated for every auto-owning household. This reflects in part that some 68 percent of the households have a second vehicle available, and also conservatively assumes that commuters from one-vehicle households would be able to return to their homes

[

i to evacuate their family.

2 b.

Conversely, the estimates of persons requiring transportation assistance assume that none of the residents who commute to work outside of the EPZ would be able to return and evacuate their family.

4.

The number cf non-resident vehicles evacuating reflects the following assumptions regarding

]

occupancy levels:

j a.

Non-resident beach visitors average 3.0 to 3.5 persons per vehicle, based on statistics for

]

each park area.

J l

b.

Non-resident workers would average 1.2 persons per vehicle.

l c.

Persons staying at area hotels / motels and visitors to areas other than the beaches would average 2.0 persons per vehicle.

l 1

4 3.5 Evacuation Route Conditions 1.

A set of evacuation time estimates was developed for the area based on all existing evacuation routes being available for use. The evacuation network and the assumed operating conditions and capacities are discussed in Chapter 7.

2.

Planned roadway improvements expected to be implemented prior to year 2002 are not assumed to be available to area traffic in the basic assessment of evacuation times. The potential impact of these future roadway improvements on evacuation times is discussed in Section 10.6.

3.

Additional time estimates were made assuming that adverse weather conditions were present, or 7

that natural events (earthquake or land slides) had rendered key portions of the evacuation network impassable, Adverse weather conditions in this area would most likely be heavy rain or fog. Such a.

weather conditions are assumed to reduce roadway capacities by 15 percent.

b.

Assumptions regarding potential evacuation route blockages are discussed in Chapter 11.

13 a

pG Chapter 4 EMERGENCY PLANNING ZONE AND SUB-AREAS The Plume Exposure Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) was divided into a system of evacuation sectors and subsectors to facilitate the planning and analysis of evacuation requirements. The study area is divided into evacuation sectors to permit partial evacuations of the study area, based upon the nature of the radiological emergency and the wind directions at the time of the event. The sector boundaries reflect radial distances and direction from SONGS and geographic FEATURES.

Analysis subsectors are used in the various emergency response plans to associate specific neighborhoods and activity areas with evacuation route assignments and to permit evacuation by smaller population increments if necessary. For the evacuation time analyses, these subsectors provide a base for grouping and quantification of demographic data.

For purposes of the computer evacuation time assessment, the subsectors are further divided into two or more population centroids for the purpose of assigning traffic to specific evacuation routes in the roadway i

network.

4.1 Evacuation Sectors Evacuation sectors were designated to comply with the format as requested by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for the area within the Plume Exposure Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ). The sector requirements are:

1 Radial Distance j

from Site Area 0 to 2 miles two 180* sectors 2 to 5 miles four 90' sectors 5 to 10 miles four 90' sectors O to 10 miles entire EPZ J

As previously discussed, the 5-mile and 10-mile radial distances were extended where necessary to avoid bisecting incorporated areas or communities. Also, the compass locations of the sector boundaries were oriented so as to avoid dividing densely populated areas.

V 14

Due to the coastal location of SONGS, the relatively straight coastline and the tendency of prevailing winds to be either onshore or offshore, the 180' sector boundary was aligned with the coastline. With this orientation, it was only necessary to identify two 90* sectors for the purpose of evaluating land evacuation beyond the 2-mile radius. (See Figures 4a and 4b.)

The northern 90* sector includes the densely populated residential communities, including several Camp Pendleton housing areas. The southern 90* sector includes beach area activities, scattered activities along I-5, and a portion of the Camp Pendleton facilities. Thus, the 90' sector boundary, oriented perpendicular to the coastline, results in the location of the great majority of the EPZ population within a single 90' northern sector. The southern sector includes primarily those areas having unique evacuation requirements-the San Onofre State Beach " Bluffs" area and the Marine Corps activities.

4.2 Emergency Planning Zone Subsectors Specific subsectors (which are referred to as districts both by the municipalities involved and in the Emergency Instructions For The San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station) were developed to encompass existing population concentrations and/or easily identifiable land uses. Subsectors were delineated to follow existing political boundaries, nature and manmade features, or other readily recognizable features.

For those areas comprised of family military housing or barracks concentrations, the approximate areas of habitation were outlined as the subsector boundary.

IO V

the EPZ subsectors are depicted in Figures 4a and 4b. Each subsector has been assigned an identification number for later reference. The subsectors comprising each NRC-prescribed sector are listed on the following pages.

Evacuation Sector Radial Distance from SONGS Subsectors North and South 0-2 Miles 11,12,13 North 2-5 Miles 1, 2, 3 4

5-10 Miles 4,5,6,7 10 Miles to EPZ Boundary 8,9,10 South 2-5 Miles 11,12 5-10 Miles 12 A brief description of the area encompassed by each subsector is presented in Appendix B.

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Chapter 5 DEFINITION OF EVACUATION SCENARIOS An evacuation of part of all of the EPZ could be initiated during the daytime on either a weekday or weekend, or during the nighttime. The evacuation might occur under any of a broad range of seasonal factors involving varying weather conditions and levels of recreational area activity. As discussed in i

Chapter 1, a 2002 transient population of up to 34,400 persons may be located within the area during the daytime on a peak summer weekend.

The time of day at which an evacuation is initiated would affect the number of persons to be evacuated and the time interval required to respond to the evacuation warning. Both of these factors would affect 3

the total time interval required to evacuate the area. Therefore, several different time periods and conditions were considered in the evacuation time assessment.

4 A set of three different time periods were selected for the development of evacuation time estimates.

These are:

i e

Daytime on a peak summer weekend; Daytime on a summer weekday; and e

l Nighttime, either on a weekend or weekday.

l Summer conditios were chose for the two daytime scenarios to maximize the population evacuation requirements for the evacuation time assessment. A fourth scenario was considered which reflects an evacuation during adverse weather conditions (rain, fog, snow, sleet, etc.).

t A fifth set of conditions was also considered. These reflect the effect of an earthquake upon evacuation time through the potential disruption of transportation facilities prior to or during an evacuation. The impacts of roadway blockage or closure on evacuation time requirements are discussed in Chapter 11.

This section would also apply to the disruptive effects on evacuation time of other similar events affecting evacuation routes-such as flooding, mud slides, and brush fires.

4 i

5.1 Daytime Sununer Weekend Evacuation in the event that an evacuation takes place on a summer weekend, a significant portion of the populace would be non-residents who are in the area as workers, tourists, or for recreation purposes. Weekend resident population in the area would be higher than on a weekday when many residents would be out

.r 16

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of the area at their place of work. In this scenario, it is assumed that the evacuation occurs at midday when the largest number of non-resident visitors would be in the area. Estimates of beach visitors are based on data for July 4th, which is usually one of the peak visitor days in the year. The number of visitors to most beach areas is limited by the available parking areas on this day.

i S.2 Daytime Summer Weekdav Evacuation The second case is the condition where an evacuation takes place during a summer weekday. In this scenario, many residents would be outside the area at their place of work. In terms of non-residents, this

(

condition would include a substantial number of non-resident workers and tourists. Recreation facilities

~

such as State Parks and City beaches would be heavily utilized, for a weekday, since most schools would not be in session, and many families and young people would be visiting these facilities. Analysis of this scenario also assumes that the evacuation occurs during the midday period when the maximum number of visitors is present within the EPZ.

6 The evacuation times for schools in the EPZ have also been included in the weekday time estimate for -

special institutions. The time estimates reflect normal school year attendance.

5.3 Nighttime Evacuation In the event that an evacuation takes place at night, the maximum resident population and the minimum non-resident population would be in the EPZ. This scenario assumes evacuation warning would occur in the late evening when most people would be at their permanent or temporary place of residence.

S.4 Adverse Weather Several adverse weather conditions occur in the EPZ which could potentially coincide with and impede an evacuation. The most probable would be the effects of heavy rainfall or dense fog. (Blockage of the roadways, by earthquake or otherwise, is discussed separately in Chapter 9.) Heavy rainfall is used for this analysis.

17 -

O Chapter 6 EVACUATION DEMAND ESTIMATES The number of persons within the EPZ at the time an evacuation occurs, their mobility characteristics, and their locations relative to the major evacuation routes are key factors governing the time necessary to evacuate part or all of the EPZ. These factors affect the number of vehicles which would travel each section of the evacuation routes, the locations where congestion would occur, and the requirements for special assistance.

The populace within the EPZ has been classified into two main groups and a total of six sub-groups, based on their particular transportation characteristics and/or needs. The groups are:

A.

Persons Evacuatine By Personal Vehicle i

1.

Residents who own automobiles; and i

[

2.

Transients (visitors and non-resident workers) who have automobiles available; B.

Persons Reauirina Evacuation Assistance 1.

Residents without automobiles; 2.

Transients without automobiles; 3.

School children; and 4

4.

Special needs populations having restricted mobility.

Estimates of these populations have been made for mid-year 1996, based on 1990 Census Bureau information, recent State and local agency estimates, and records and reports concerning building permits and demographic characteristics. Projections received from local planning agencies were used to estimate population for mid-year 2002. The evacuation time estimates reflect the 2002 demographic forecasts.

The following sections identify the population segments, the vehicle volumes, and transportation requirements associated with each.

O

)

18

6.1 Resident and Transient Population Estimates

. (~'N g

The estimates resident and transient population which would evacuate reflects the following:

l.

The resident population reflects the total number of persons estimated to reside within each subsector.

2.

The workers represent the estimated total number of non-resident persons (transients) employed I

within each subsector during the work shift represented by each evacuation scenario, or visiting the area for business purposes.

3.

The tourist and beach populations reflect the estimated number of recreational visitors (non-residents) within the area for each scenario.

The methodology and assumptions used to estimate the mid-1996 and mid-2002 populations are summarized in Chapters 2 and 3. The number of persons at the SONGS' site and Camp Pendleton personnel are discussed separately in Sections 6.4 and 6.5.

6.1.1 1996 Resident and Transient Population The estimated number of 1996 residents and transients who would evacuate is summarized by scenario

)

in Table 2. The maximum population which may be within the area at any one time would occur for the s

Summer Weekend scenario. The evacuees, which total 141,867 persons, include 109,984 permanent residents, 3,013 transient workers, and 28,870 recreational visitors. Note that this assumes that all permanent residents are present in the area at the time of peak visitor accumulation at the beaches and parks. The estimated total number of persons evacuating for the other scenarios is:

Summer Weekday 131,887 persons Nighttime 113,283 persons 6.1.2 2002 Resident and Transient Population Estimated resident and transient populations for mid-2002 are summarized in Table 3 for each evacuation scenario. The total number of persons included in each scenario is as follows:

Summer Weekend 153,908 persons Summer Weekday 143,451 persons Nighttime 123,467 persons

' O Estimates are presented in Appendix C for each population centroid.

).

19

Table 2 EPZ PERMANENT AND TRANSIENT POPULATION

SUMMARY

1996 Resident Non-Resident Srbsector (All Summer Weekend Summer Weekday Nightime Scenarios)

Worker Beach /

Worker Beach /

Worker Beach /

Visitor Visitor Visitor 11 0

45 7,965 30 4,004 5

900 1

5,449 60 2,720 102 1,932 15 1,030 2

12 215 176 225 793 261 35 80 3

12,210 730 7,760 1,119 3,885 40 226 4

16,733 206 15 761 15 5

5 5

235 25 6,185 10 2,061 0

450 6

7,591 343 1,000 791 600 10 0

7 7,579 267 90 905 60 36 0

8 20,990 651 700 2,025 490 61 120 9

12,696 420 1,560 610 780 35 200 10 14,286 90 650 420 250 15 30 TOTAL:

109,984 3,013 28,870 7,565 14,338 258 3,041

• Excludes Camp Pendleton Marine Corps (Subsector 12) and SONGS (Subsector 13).

Refer to Section 6.4 and 6.5 for population estimates related to these specific areas.

Wilbur Smith Associates (G) 20

)

1

.A Table 3

.ty EPZ PERMANENT AND TRANSIENT POPULATION

SUMMARY

2002 Resident Non-Resident Subsector (All Summer Weekend Summer Weekday Nightime Scenarios)

Worker Beach /

Worker Beach /

Worker Beach /

Visitor Visitor Visitor 11 0

49 8,459 33 4,252 5

956 1

5,523 66 2,889 111 2,052 16 1,094 2

13,917 192 239 866 278 38 85 3

12,740 798 8,241 1,223 4,126 44 240 4

18,228 225 16 832 16 5

5 5

235 27 6,568 11 2,189 0

478 6

7,826 375 1,062 864 637 11 0

7 8,452 292 96 989 64 40 0

[}

8 22,714 712 743 2,213 520 67 127

%J 9

14,151 459 1,657 667 828 38 212 10 16,170 98 690 459 266 16 32 TOTAL:

119,956 3.293 30,659 8,268 15.227 281 3.230

• Excludes Camp Pendleton Marine Corps (Subsector 12) and SONGS (Subsector 13).

Refer to Section 6.4 and 6.5 for population estimates related to these specific areas.

Wilbur Smith Associates

'd 21

6.2 Estimated Number of Evacuatine Vehicle.1 O

g

/

The numbers of private vehicles used by the resident and transient population were estimated for 2002.

The evacuation time estimates presented in Chapters 10 and 11 reflect the time necessary for evacuation in 2002. The number of private vehicles estimated to participate in the evacuation is listed by scenario in Table 4.

6.2.1 Evacuation Vehicles Used by Resident Pooulation The 119,956 persons projected to reside in those sections of the EPZ which would evacuate northward comprise an estimated 49,983 households. Ilousehold automobile ownership information from the 1990 census was then used to estimate the number of households which own one or more automobiles (48,352 households).

Based on the assumptions presented in Chapter 3 (Section 3.4), the 2002 resident population would use an estimated 70,449 vehicles to evacuate in the daytime scenarios and 76,128 vehicle to evacuate in the nighttime scenario. The number of resident vehicles is summarized by subsector in Table 4 and by population centroid in Appendix C.

Note that for many households with only one automobile, the single automobile is used by a household member to commute to work outside the EPZ. The estimated volume of evacuation vehicles, and hence d

the time estimates to evacuate these vehicles, assumes that these commuters are able to return to the EPZ and then join the evacuation traffic out of the EPZ. Conversely, the public transportation resources estimated as necessary to evacuate persons without an automobile assume the opposite-that the commuter is not able to return into the EPZ and evacuate the household. This approach conservatively overstates the evacuation time estimates and the resources needed for transportation assistance.

6.2 2 Evacuation Vehicles Used by Transients Virtually all of the transient population within the area, whether for work-related or recreational purposes, travel via private automobile. The number of vehicles used by these transient groups was derived by applying the following average vehicle occupancy factors to the estimated number of visitors within the area represented by each population centroid:

Transient Workers 1.2 persons per vehicle Transient Beach-Goers 3.0 persons per vehicle Campers 3.5 persons per vehicle Visitors in llotels/ Motels 2.0 persons per vehicle Other Businesses, Shopping or

()

Recreational Visitors 2.0 persons per vehicle

()

22

.p Table 4

.g EVACUATION VEHICLES GENERATED BY SUBSECTOR*

2002 Resident Non-Resident Subsector Summer Nighttime Summer Weekend Summer Weekday Nightime Weekend &

Worker Beach /

Worker Beach /

Worker Beach /

Weekday Visitor Visitor Visitor 11 0

0 41 2,641 27 1,317 5

273 1

3,408 3,679 55

%3 93 684 14 365 2

9,591 10,353 160 119 722 139 32 42 3

8,082 8,725 664 2,793 1,020 1,421 37 121 4

9,975 10,767 188 8

693 8

5 3

5 146 158 23 1,877 9

625 0

137 6

4,888 5.292 312 531 720 319 9

0 7

4212 4,548 243 48 824 32 33 0

8 11,199 12,095 593 372 1,844 260 56 64 j

9 8,840 9,569 383 828 556 414 32 106

.f 10 10,108 10,942 82 345 383 133 14 16 TOTAL:

70,449 76,128 2,744 10.524 6,891 5.351 235 1,126

' Excludes Camp Pendleton Marine Corps (Subsector 12) and SONGS (Subsector 13).

Refer to Section 6.4 and 6.5 for population estimates related to these specific areas.

Wilbur Smith Associates O

23

i The number of vehicles used by transients, and which would be included in an evacuation, is presented 4

by subsector in Table 4.

The largest number of transient vehicles would be included in an evacuation occurring on a sununer weekend, when the large number of beach visitors would increase the number of transient vehicles to 13,268. This compares to 12,242 transient vehicles for a weekday and 1,361 vehicles for a nighttime evacuation. The evacuation time estimates assume that all transient vehicles will leave the EPZ.

l 6.2.3 Total Number of Vehicles Evacuating EPZ (Unassisted Pooulation)

The combined number of permanent resident and transient vehicles included within the evacuation time estimate for 2002 is as follows:

Summer Weekend 83,717 vehicles

[

Summer Weekday 82,691 vehicles Nighttime 77,489 vehicles i

i i

6.3 Population Reauiring Evacuation Assistance 1

l A sizeable portion of those persons in the EPZ may have an automobile available to use in an evacuation.

?6 Groups which may require transportation assistance would include: households which do not own an automobile: households where the family vehicles are unavailable at the time of evacuation; homebound special needs population; and persons in institutions (schools, hospitals and nursing homes).

The number of persons will vary depending upon whether schools are in session and whether EPZ residents who work outside the EPZ are able to return to assist in evacuating their families. Also, many l

persons without an automobile may evacuate with neighbors or co-workers and thus not require 4

transportation assistance from the emergency response organizations.

i 6.3.1 Residents without Automobiles i

i Ilousehold automobile ownership data from the 1990 Census reveals that residents of between 2 and 5 4

percent of the households in the various communities within the EPZ do not own an automobile.

j Applying the average household size to the number of 2002 households without autos in each community l

yields an estimated 5,398 residents who may require transportation assistance. This demand estimate includes many who are residents of nursing homes, a category which is addressed separately as "special institutions." The estimate also includes many school-age children in these households who, if an evacuation occurs ou a school day, would be provided transportation through the school authorities.

j p\\

Excluding these groups, some 4,035 persons from households which do not own a vehicle may require assistance.

24

l Another segment of the population which may require public transportation is those members of households having only one vehicle available. Under the weekday scenario, it is possible that the family O

g automobile could be outside the EPZ at the breadwinner's place of work. Such families may require assistance if an evacuation were to occur on a weekday without sufficient warning time to permit the family commuter to return home to evacuate family members.

Census data indicate that between 29 and 30 percent of the households in the various areas have access to only one vehicle. Based upon regional work trip patterns, it is estimated that approximately 25 percent of these one-car households have workers who commute more than 20 miles from home and would be beyond the traffic control / diversion perimeter.

Applying the average number of persons per household (less the driver of the absent vehicle) to the one-car households which may be left without autos yields an additional 5,104 persons who may require transportation assistance. Excluding school children from this total, whose needs are addressed in a separate section, the number of residents in one-car households who require assistance may be as many as 3,390 persons.

As stipulated in the County of Orange Nuclear Power Plant Emergency Plan, the County Transportation Coordinator will coordinate the dispatch of public transportation as necessary to provide for individuals and families lacking transportation.d The Orange County Transportation Authority (OCTA) staff responsible for directing emergency assistance to communities notes that the makeup of the bus fleet tends q

to change over time as new vehicles are added and older ones removed from service. The average G/

seating capacity of their current bus fleet is approximately 36 persons per bus. Recognizing that some standees could be accommodated for the trip to the reception centers, but, on the other hand, that many riders would be carrying at least one parcel or bag, a conservative average estimated load of 40 persons per bus was used to determine bus demand.

Applying the above load factor to the segment of permanent residents without autos produces a potential need for up to 186 buses to provide transportation assistance under summer weekday conditions. The number estimated for each scenario is as follows:

Buses Scenario Persons Necessary Weekend 4,797 120 Weekday 7,425 186 l

Nighttime 4,797 120 t

' County of Orance Nuclear Power Plant Emereency Plan for San Onofre Nuclear Generatine Station, y

coordinated by Orange County Sheriff-Coroner Emergency Management Division, Imajurisdictional Procedures

1. 8, #9, and #18.

25

)

~..

l i

Note that school children are not included in the above weekday scenario, since they are addressed as a separate institution requirement on weekdays. Residents of nursing homes are not included in any of the above scenarios, since they are addressed as a separate institution requirement at all times.

f i

6.3.2 Transients without an Automobile Given travel characteristics within the area, most of the non-resident workers and recreational visitors would be expected to have an automobile available for use in an evacuation. Assuming that the two percent of the visitors do not have a vehicle available, the number of persons and required numbers of buses to assist them are estimated as follows:

l

Buse, q

Scenario Persons Necessary i

Weekend 679 17 Weekday 470 12

. Nighttime 70 2

i i

i i

6.3.3 Schools In the event that an evacuation is given on a weekday while school is in session, the Orange County l

Transportation Coordinator will coordinate with the School Coordinator to ensure enough resources are I

i obtained to perform evacuation.5 The primary means of transport would be by bus.

The evaluation of transportation requirements for school children assumes that the majority of students p

attending public schools would be transported outside the affected area by school district or public transit buses which would be assigned to each school. Local emergency plans encourage the parents of these children to reunite with their children at assigned reception schools outside the EPZ.

Since few private schools provide bus transportation for their pupils, the local emergency response plans 4

envision that many of the children attending these schools would be picked up by their parents prior to 4

evacuating the area. Any children remaining at private schools when public transportation arrives at the l

school would be evacuated via bus to the predesignated reception centers. For this evacuation time estimate, the conservative assumption was used that all private school children would be evacuated by l

public transit buses.

1

O

'Ikid., I.P. #9, p.1.

26

Prior to assessing bus demand, an inventory was made of student enrollment in public and private schools j

located within the EPZ. A summary of student enrollment in public and private schools within the EPZ is presented in Table 5. Current school enrollments within the study area are approximately 15,930 l

students in public schools and 5,684 students in private schools.

Current information obtained from the Capistrano Unified School District indicates that the school district has sufficient capacity to transport approximately 6,700 students at one time. The Orange County Transportation Authority advises that the average capacity of their current public transit fleet is 36 seated adult passengers. Recognizing that somewhat more pupils could be accommodated, an average capacity of 60 pupils per bus was used for this evaluation time estimate.

Using the approximate school district bus fleet lift capacity, it is estimated that as many as 249 additional public transit buses could be required to evacuate all public and private schools within the EPZ.

Demand for supplemental buses is summarized by sector in the table below:

Public Transit Sector Buses Needed 0 to 5 Miles 14 5 to 10 Miles 73 p

10 Miles to EPZ Boundary

.162

\\

Total 249 6.3.4 Stiecial Populations Havine Restricted Mobility There are three types of institutions within the EPZ which would require assistance in relocation. These are:

1.

Hospitals:

2.

Retirement Homes; and 3.

Other homebound persons having special needs.

As indicated in the County of Orange Nuclear Power Plant Emergency Plan, persons from these special facilities would be relocated to hospitals, nursing homes, and other appropriate facilities outside the affected area.' Transportation requirements for the relocation of these special institutions are identified in the following sections.

l t

D V

'lh L p. V 14.

27

Table 5 PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SCHOOL ENROLLMENT Sub-Student School Address Sector Sector Enrollment Public:

San Onofre Elem. Sch.

200 Pate Rd/USMC Camp Pendleton 2 Mile 12 691 Concordia Elem. Sch.

3120 Avenida Del Presidentes/S.C.

5-Mile 1

712 Ole lianson Elem. Sch.

189 Avenida La Cuesta /S.C.

5-Mile 2

652 Clarence Lobo Elem. Sch.

200 Avenida Vista Montana /S.C.

5-Mile 2

785 San Clemente liigh Sch.

700 Avenida Pico/S.C.

5-Mile 2

2233 Las Palmas Elem. Sch.

1101 Calle Puente/S.C.

5-Mile 3

638 llorizon liigh Sch.

1402 N. El Camino Real/S.C.

5-Mile 3

25 Shorecliffs Middle Sch.

240 Via Socorro/S.C.

10-Mile 4

1124 Truman Benedict Elem. Sch.

1251 Sarmentosa/S.C.

10-Mile 4

837 Palisades Elem. Sch.

26462 Via Sacramento /C.B.

10-Mile 6

892 liarold J. Ambuehl Elem. Sch.

28001 San Juan Creek Rd/SJ.C.

10-Mile 7

880 Del Obispo Elem. Sch.

25601 Camino Del Avion /SJ.C.

10-Mile +

8 751 Marco F. Forster Middle Sch.

25601 Camino del Avion /SJ.C.

10-Mile +

8 1403 San Juan Elem. Sch.

31642 El Camino Real/SJ.C.

10-Mile +

3 1025 Serra Continuation liigh Sch.

31422 Camino Capistrano/SJ.C.

10-Mile +

8 141 Community llome Education Prog. 31736 Rancho Viejo Road /S).C.

10-Mile +

8 25 florizon liigh Sch.

31738 Rancho Viejo Road /S).C.

10-Mile +

8 120 Rif Dana Except. Needs Fac.

24242 La Cresta Dr/D.P.

10-Mile +

9 48 Ril Dana Elem. Sch.

24242 La Cresta Dr/D.P.

10-Mile +

9 652 liorizon liigh Sch.

2490111 arbor Dr/D.P.

10-Mile +

9 15 Dana 11 ills fligh Sch.

33333 St. of the Golden Lantern /D.P.

10-Mile +

10 2281 Total Public School 15,930 Private:

Our Lady of Fatima Sch.

105 N. La Esperenza/S.C.

5-Mile 2

267 Our Saviors Lutheran Elem.Sch.

200 Avenida San Pablo/S.C.

5-Mile 2

175 Our Saviors Lutheran Pre-sch.

200 Avenids San Pablo/S.C.

5-Mile 2

50 Cornerstone Christian Pre-sch.

702 N. Avenida De La Estrella/S.C.

5-Mile 3

30 San Clemente Pre-sch.

163 Avenida Victoria /S.C.

5-Mile 3

20 San Clemente Presbyt. Pre-sch.

119 Avenida de La Estrella/S.C.

5-Mile 3

97 Serra Parent Particip. Pre-sch.

1005 Calle Puente/S.C.

5-Mile 3

19

- St. Michael's Academy 107 W. Marquita/S.C.

5-Mile 3

99 St. Michael's Children's Center 107 W. Marquita/S.C.

5-Mile 3

65 Stepping Stone Pre-sch.

130 Avenida Granada/S.C.

5-Mile 3

22

• (d 28

Table 5 (continued)

'[

Sub.

Student School Address Sector Sector Enrollment Private (continued):

La Christianita Pre sch.

35522 Camino Capistrano/.S.C.

10-Mile 4

75 Top of the Hill Mother's Day Out 2001 Calle Frontera/S.C.

10-Mile 4

40 Early Explorations 2015 Calle Frontera/S.C.

10-Mile 4

120 Faith Lutheran Pre-sch.

34381 Calle Portola/C.B.

10-Mile 6

34 Palisades United Meth. Pre-sch.

27002 Camino De Estrella/C.B.

10-Mile 6

45 Dana Point Christian Sch.

25975 Domingo Ave /C.B.

10-Mile 6

204 Dana Point Christian Pre-Sch.

25975 Domingo Ave /C.B.

10-Mile 6

43 Treasure Isle Children's 1 26153 Victoria /C.B.

10-Mile 6

50 Treasure Isle Children's 11 34240 Camino Capistrano/C.B.

10-Mile 6

50 St. Margaret's Sch.

31641 La Novia Ave./S.J.C.

10-Mile 7

960 Fresh Start 31431 El Camino Real/S.J.C.

10-Mile +

8 80 Stoneybrooke Christian 26300 Via Escolar/S.J.C.

10-Mile +

8 465 Capistrano laguna ROP 31522 El Camino Real/S.J.C.

10-Mile +

8 200 Capistrano Valley Head Start 32502 Paseo Adelanto/S.J.C.

10-Mile +

8 204 Capistrano Valley Christian Sch.

32032 Del Obispo/S.J.C.

10-Mile +

8 925 Capistrano Valley Pre-sch.

32032 Del Obispo/S.J.C.

10-Mile +

8 80

[

Community Presbyt. Pre-sch.

32202 Del Obispo/S.J.C.

10-Mile +

8 75 Dana Pre-sch. I 32143 Alipaz/S.J.C.

10-Mile +

8 30 Mission School-Catholic 31641 El Camino Real/S.J.C.

10-Mile +

8 384 The Wonder Years 31113 Rancho Viejo Rd./S.J.C.

10-Mile +

8 70 j

Sylvan learning Center 32301 Camino Capistrano/S.J.C.

10-Mile +

8 12 Stonebridge Day Sch.

32091 Alipaz/S..I.C.

10-Mile +

9 44 St. Edwards Catholic Sch.

33866 Calle La Primavera/D.P.

10-Mile +

9 319 St. Edwards Catholic Pre-Sch.

33866 Calle La Primavera/D.P.

10-Mile +

9 53 Gloria Del Lutheran Pre-Sch.

33501 Stonehill Drive /D.P.

10-Mile +

9 52 Happy Campers Pre-Sch.

33501 Del Obispo/S.J.C.

10-Mile +

9 36 Broderick Montessori Sch.

24292 Del Prado/D.P.

10-Mile +

9 85 J

Dana Pre-sch.11 34052 St. of the Violet Lantern /D.P.

10-Mile +

10 25 South Shores Christian Pre-sch.

32712 Crown Valley Pkwy /D.P.

10-Mile +

10 80 l

Total Private School 5,684 l

Total All Schools 21,614 i

I 29

6.3.4.1 Ilosoitals t.

Three hospitals are located within the EPZ, including Columbia San Clemente, Capistrano Beach Nursing Center, and Capistrano-by-the-Sea. Patients in these facilities would be transported by bus, ambulance, or wheelchair van. Transportation requirements are based on assessments made by officials representing these medical institutions. A summary of transport vehicle demand is presented below for each facility.

PATIENTS REQUIRED VEHICLES Non-Ilospital Subsector Ambulatory Ambulatory Bus Ambulance W.C. Van Columbia San Cle:nente 4

0 45 0

18 2

Capistrano Beach 6

0 79 0

22 6

Nursing Center Capistrano-by-i g

the-Sea 9

29 57 1*

18 4

NOTES:

W.C. Van = Wheelchair Van TOTALS 1

58 12 Estimates provided by Facility Staffs

• Assumes an average seating capacity of 36 f

/

30

f n

6.3.4.2 Nursing and Retirement Homes L

Facilities of this category located within the EPZ are listed below. Health Care Center Population figures were furnished by institutional staffs, except where noted.

Facilities Subsector Population

• Wycliffe Casa de Seniors 2

70 Anita's Board and Care 4

6 Heaven Can Wait 4

4 Capistrano Nursing Center 4

124 Villa del Obispo 7

118 Chateau San Juan 7

145 Seasons 8

109 i

Sunset Home 1 8

5 Seaside Terrace 10 6

Sunset Home 11 10

_1 Total 601

• Population estimates from facility staff.

Based on information provided by facility staff, a total 378 of the residents were assessed to be ambulatory. Assuming a seated capacity of 36 per bus, some 11 transit buses would be required for evacuation. The estimated total of 223 wheelchair-bound persons would require 38 wheelchair vans having an average capacity of 6 chairs each.

6 3.4.3 Homebound Populations Reauirine Special Transportation Assistance The County of Orange maintains a "Special Assistance" population list of persons, principally the elderly, who live at home within the EPZ and have chronic disabilities which may limit their mobility.

Transportation assistance for homebound persons who are members of this program, would have to be assigned on an individual basis. The type of transportation required would depend on the nature of the person's disability.

4 The current number of persons enrolled in the "Special Assistance" program is 289 and all are located in the north sector. This population segment represents approximately 0.26 percent of the resident north sector EPZ population. Assuming a comparable proportion to require special assistance in the future, results in an estimated total of 312 persons in 2002.

Based on current program participants, approximately 1 percent of the total would require ambulances and 30 percent wheelchair vans. The ON remaining 69 percent are ambulatory and could be transported by bus, with some minor assistance. This resulted in the estimated transportation assistance requirements which are summarized below.

31

ESTIMATED YEAR 2002 TRANSPORTATION ASSISTANCE REQUIREMENTS FOR A

HOMEBOUND POPULATION REQUESTING SPECIAL ASSISTANCE 11rm Ambulances Wheelchair Vans Buses Total Persons 3

94 215 312 Vehicles 2

16 6

NOTE: Assumed vehicle capacities: Ambulances (2 per unit); wheelchair vans (6 per unit); buses (36 passengers per bus).

6.3.4.4 Jails There are no civilian detention facilities within the EPZ.

6.3.5 Summary of Persons and Vehicles Needed to Assist Evacuation A sununary of the population within the EPZ requiring evacuation assistance is given in Table 6 for each of the three evacuation scenarios. As indicated in the table, demand for supplemental transportation g.

\\

assistance is expected to be at the maximum on a school day when persons requiring bus transportation could total 24,332 due to a substantial number of students at school requiring assistance. Considerably lower demand is expected at night or on weekends, when students and breadwinners are at home.

Demand for ambulances and wheelchair vans shows less variation from one scenario to another.

A summary of estimated vehicle needs for special transportation assistance is given in Table 7.

6.4 SONGS Workers and Visitors The number of on-site workers and visitors present at the SONGS facility depends upon the time of the week and whether or not a generation unit is shut down for maintenance or refueling purposes. During routine shut-downs or " outages" of a unit, there is generally a large increase in the number of contractor personnel on site to perform the necessary maintenance and fueling activities. Each of the two generating units is scheduled for shut-down once every 18 to 24 months for refueling, with the outages scheduled to avoid the sununer period when the largedEnumber of recreational visitors are in the EPZ.

Southern California Edison Company would mandatorily order an evacuation of the plant upon declaration of a General Emergency. Approximately 370 essential personnel would remain on site, with the other

]

workers instructed to evacuate the area. Southern California Edison Company estimates that about 85 i (V percent of the plant workers live outside the EPZ.

32

Table 6

. O

SUMMARY

OF PERSONS NEEDING SPECIAL TRANSPORTATION ASSISTANCE Non-Population Category School School Nighttime Day Day Bus Transportation Persons at ilome a) 0-car households 4,797 4,035 4,797 b) 1-car households (car out of area) 0 3,390 0

c) llomebound 215 215 215 4

Subtotal:

5,012 7,640 5,012 Schools 0

14,914 0

llospitals 29 29 29

' f Nursing / Retirement Homes /IIealth Care Ctts.

378 378 378 Transients without autos 679 470 70 TOTAL PERSONS BY BUS 6,098 23,431 5,489 Ambulances Persons at home 3

3 3

liospitals 116 116 116 TOTAL PERSONS BY AMBULANCE 119 119 119 Wheelchair Vans Persons at home 94 94 94 Ilospitals 65 65 65 Other facilities 223 223 223 TOTAL PERSONS BY WHEELCHAIR VAN 382 382 382 0

33

Table 7

/]

l-ESTIMATE OF VEHICLE REQUIREMENTS FOR SPECIAL TRANSPORTATION ASSISTANCE Non-Population Category School School Nighttime Day Day Bus Transportation Persons at Home a) 0-car households 120 101 120 b) 1-car households (car out of area) 0 85 0

c) Homebound 6

6 6

Subtotal:

126 192 126 Schools 0

249 0

llospitals 1

1 1

f Nursin'/ Retirement Homes / Health Care Ctrs.

11 11 11 5 G}

Transients without autos 17 12 2

TOTAL BUSES 155 465 140 Ambulances Persons at home 2

2 2

Hospitals 58 58 58 TOTAL AMBULANCES 60 60 60 Wheelchair Vans Persons at home 16 16 16 Hospitals 12 12 12 Other facilities 38 38 38 TOTAL WHEELCHAIR VANS 66 66 66 O

34

f l

l Table 8 presents the estimated number of workers and visitor vehicles that would exi' ae site following instructions to evacuate.

{

'u /

Table 8 ESTIMATED NUMBER OF VEHICLES USED BY EVACUATING SONGS WORKER 9 General Emergency Condition Weekday Weekend

• Nighttime

• Total Vehicles Evacuating During normal operations 2,150 0

0 During outage for maintenance 2,650 0

0 Transient Vehicles Evacuating During normal operations 1,840 0

0 During outage for maintenance 2,260 0

0 K

• Virtually all workers would remain on-site as essential personnel to monitor operations and carry

.j out emergency activities.

i 6.5 U.S. Marine Corps Base. Camn Pendleton Peak population in those base areas included within the EPZ is estimated at 19,516 persons (Table 9).

The Marine Corps plans to evacuate troops, dependents, and visitors from the sections of Camp Pendleton within the EPZ at the declaration of a Site Area Emergency. The estimated number of persons that would be evacuated would total 17,079 persons for an evacuation occurring during normal work hours, and 14,248 persons if the evacuation occurs outside of normal work hours.

Transportation resources used to evacuate these areas will include both privately-owned vehicles and government vehicles, as available.7 Estimated evacuation demand has been expressed only in terms of persons requiring transportation.

O

' Standard Onegine Procedures for Emereenev Response, U.S. Marine Corps, Camp Pendleton, Califomia 1-l 79, January 1981 Revision, p. K B-5.

35

Table 9 ESTIMATED PEAK POPULATION AND TRANSPORTATION

~

REQUIREMENTS FOR CAMP PENDLETON Number of Personnel Estimated Peak to Be Evacuated Population for im After Area Camp Pendleton Work Hours Work Hours San Onofre Recreation Beach 200 50 50 San Onofre Family Housing 4,511 2,794 466 Mobile Home Park (248 trailers) 1,240 670 167 San Onofre 3,000 3,000 3,000 l

San Mateo 3,197 3,197 3,197 Iforno 3,245 3,245 3,245 Talega 307 307 307 Las Flores 930 930 930 Las Pulgas 2,886 2,886 2,886 TOTAL 19,516 17,079 14,248 Source: Standard Operating Procedures for Emergency Response, U.S. Marine Corps, Camp Pendleton j

1-79, California, January 1981 Revision, p. K-3-B-5, updated by Wilbur Smith Associates September,1996.

1

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36 l

O Chapter 7 i

EVACUATION ROADWAY NETWORK Evacuation plans are set fonh as part of the emergency response plans (Chapter 1) for the local organizations responsible for the planning and implementation of an evacuation of the EPZ. These plans i

identify the area roadways to be used as evacuation routes by each community. The major roadway system and the principal evacuation routes within the Orange and San Diego Counties EPZ sectors are depicted in Figures 5a and 5b, respectively.

7.1 Maior Evacuation Routes l

Major roadways in the area which were examined for use as evacuation routes are described in the following } y.9 s.

These facilities, with the exception of Ortega Highway, were included as h

l evacuation routes.

j 4

e Interstate Route 5 (San Diego Freeway) is the principal area roadway and follows a general nonh-

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south direction along the coast and passes just east of SONGS.1-5 is an eight-to ten-lane facility

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built to full freeway standards. Four nonhbound lanes are available for evacuation use south of Camino Las Ramblas and five lanes are available nonh of this point. Four lanes are available in the southbound direction, south of State Route 1.

e Basilone Road is a two-lane road which intersects I-5 approximately two miles nonh of SONGS and runs in a southeasterly direction into the interior of Camp Pendleton.

)

e Access Road (formerly Route 101) was originally a four-lane facility, but has been narrowed to two lanes in some areas to provide shoulder-area parking for visitors to the State Beach areas. This highway parallels I-5 from the Basilone Road interchange past the SONGS facility, with a southern connection to I-5 at the 1,as Pulgas interchange approximately seven miles south of the SONGS site, e El Camino Real (State Route 1) is a four-lane undivided roadway which generally parallels I-5 from the Orange County line northward to the Avenida Pico area in nonhern San Clemente.

• State Route I continues north of Avenida Pico as the Pacific Coast Highway. Between the Avenida Pico and Doheny Park Road, Pacific Coast Highway offers a minimum of one nonhbound lane and two southbound lanes. Pacific Coast Highway, in this area, is assumed to be useable as a one lane Of nonhbound evacuation route in the " base case" evacuation routing scenario. Alternative evacuation 37

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routing and the resulting evacuation time estimate for a scenario which includes a potential blockage of Pacific Coast Highway is addressed in Chapter 11. North of Del Obispo Street, Pacific Coast Highway operates as a three-lane, one-way street couple to Street of the Blue Lantern and then narrows to a four-lane (two-way) facility and generally parallels the coastline.

• Avenida Pico is a four-lane anerial within the City of San Clemente, with its western terminus at El Camino Real (State Route 1) near the Pacific Ocean. It narrows to two lanes east of Avenida La Pata and continues eastward to the TRW Systems Group property where it terminates.

• Ortega Highway (State Route 74) is a four-lane, east-west roadway from Camino Capistrano to east of Hunt Club Road, which is located near the eastern city limits. Onega Highway then narrows to two lanes and continues across the San Juan Creek channel to the Lake Elsinore area in Riverside County. This route is not planned as a major evacuation route for San Juan Capistrano populations due to the mountainous terrain it crosses and its susceptibility to blockage by landslides or accidents.

Some sparsely populated area of Orange County to the nonheast of San Juan Capistrano may use this route to exit the area.

• Camino Capistrano begins as a two-lane arterial at its intersection with Pacific Coast Highway in northern San Clemente, and parallels the Pacific Coast Highway through the Capistrano Beach residential areas of Dana Point. At Camino Las Ramblas, it turns northward and parallels I-5 through San Juan Capistrano. At its junction with Doheny Park Road, Camino Capistrano widens to a four-lane cross-section to Del Obispo Street. From Del Obispo Street to Onega Highway, O

Camino Capistrano operates as a two-lane facility. The roadway extends north of Ortega Highway as a four-lane facility to a point near Oso Road, where it tapers down to a two-lane facility.

• Rancho Viejo Road extends from Calle Arroyo in the south, across Onega Highway. Most of the roadway is four lanes wide.

• Street of the Golden Lantern is a four-lane anerial which extends from Pacific Coast Highway nonh beyond the limits of Dana Point and becomes Moulton Parkway nonh of Crown Valley Parkway in Laguna Niguel.

• Niguel Road is a four. lane roadway which extends from Pacific Coast Highway nonh beyond the limits of Dana Point and connects with Alicia Parkway immediately north of Crown Valley Parkway in Laguna Niguel.

• Crown Valley Parkway is a four-lane arterial which extends nonh through Dana Point, then northeasterly through Laguna Niguel to I-5.

?

38

l l

7.2. Planned Imorovements to the Maior Roadway Network f3j Near-term /on-going, medium-term, and long-term planned roadway improvements were identified through i

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contact with responsible agencies. These are described below.

7.2.1 Near-Term /On Goine Roadway Projects There is one project which was under construction at the initiation of this study which significantly increases the principal northbound evacuation route capacity. The San Joaquin Hills Transportation Corridor which extends from the current terminus of State Route 73 in Irvine to I-5 between Junipero Serra Road and Avery Parkway was in the final stages of construction during preparation of this study and was completed by year-end 1996. The two-lane connector ramp from northbound I-5 to northbound San Joaquin Hills Corridor (S.R. 73) adds one additional evacuation lane between Ortega Highway and i

Junipero Serra Road and two additional evacuation lanes from Junipero Serra Road north to the S.R. 73 connector ramp. Given that this roadway improvement project was completed and open to traffic by the time this study was finalized, the added capacity it provides has been assumed in the evacuation time estimate study.

7.2.2 Medium-Term Roadway Projects

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V One medium-term roadway project has been identified which could increase the capacity for northbound evacuation traffic. The first phase of this improvement involves the extension of Antonio Parkway as a six-lane arterial, from its present terminus at Oso Parkway, southward to Ortega Highway (State Route

74) at La Pata Avenue. This first phase has funding in place, and is planned to be completed by year-end 1999. Phase 2 of this improvement, which would further extend Antonio Parkway as a high-capacity two-lane arterial along the alignment of La Pata to Avenida Pico, has priority funding status and could be completed by the end of year 2000.

i Since the primary purpose of the Evacuation time estimate study is to provide and updated evacuation routing plan which can be implemented immediately, the basic plan and associated evacuation time estimates must be based on existing evacuation routes available to the populace. However, since there is a reasonable possibility that the identified roadway project could be completed within the 1996 to 2002 forecast period defined for this study, the potential impact of this improvement on evacuation routing and evacuation time has also been assessed. The findings of this analysis are reported in Section 10.6.

7.2.3 Lonn-Term Roadway Proiects There are several regional arterials being considered, over the long term, in or near the study area.

p Those which could ultimately increase available evacuation route capacity are summarized below:

G 39

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i i

1.

New I-5 interchange at Avenida Vista Hermosa - A new interchange is being considered for construction approximately 0.8 mile north'of the Avenida Pico interchange. The interchange g

would provide additional access capacity to I-5 from the new development areas east of I 5.

4 i

2.

Foothill Transportation Corridor (between I-5, at the Orange County / San Diego County line and Ortega Highway)- This facility, when completed, would be aligneNiong the northern boundary i

of Camp Pendleton Marine Corps Base and northeast of San Cinaente providing additional capacity to the north.

Recent assessments of these projects do not anticipate their full completion before 2002. As such, none of the above-mentioned long-range regional arterial improvements were reflected in terms of available new evacuation roadway capacity for this evaluation time analysis.

1 b

1

' 7.3 Designated Evacuation Routes and Reception Centers l

i Transportation routes leading out of the EPZ to pre-selected reception centers have been designated for i

each subsector within the EPZ.' The evacuation routes within the EPZ are depicted in Figures 5a and

^

Sb. This information has been distributed to the populace within the EPZ as pan of the public information program.

In the EPZ evacuation plans, all persons within each subsector have been assigned the same principal j

evacuation route and the same reception center. This study reflects proposed modifications to the assignment of reception centers which would also allow most subsectors within the same jurisdiction to J

be designated the same center. The assigned reception centers are identified in the Offsite Emergency Response Plans. Reception and care centers are located beyond a 15-mile radius from SONGS and would be available to those evacuees requiring emergency shelter and/or medical aid.

l For the Orange County subsectors, assigned evacuation routes lead northward, away from the SONGS facility and generally represent the most direct routes out of the EPZ. The principal evacuation routes out of the area are I-5 (including the San Joaquin Hills Corridor) and the Pacific Coast Highway, with Camino Capistrano, Street of the Golden Lantern, Niguel Road, and Crown Valley Parkway as secondary routes.

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' County of Orange Nuclear Power Plant Emergency Plan / San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station; San Diego County, Nuclear Power Plant Emergency Plan: U.S. Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton Emergency Response Plan.

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Population from within the Camp Pendleton U.S. Marine Corps Base and San Onofre State Park, Bluffs area, have assigned evacuation routes leading to the south. The principal routes to the south are Basilone Road, primarily for the Camp Pen & ton facilities, and I-5.

Non-essential SONGS personnel and visitors will be directed to evacuate either to the north on I-5 or to the south via I-5, Old Coast Highway, and Mesa Road. The determination of the northbound or i

southbound evacuation will be made based in part on prevailing wind conditions at the time the evacuation is declared.

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7.4 Evacuation Route Link / Node Network

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1 1

The designated evacuation routes were translated into a link / node network for input to the computerized Evacuation Time Assessment Program. First, the area roadway network was redefined as a system of 2

roadway links (segments) and nodes (roadway intersections). Network nodes are then numbered and coded for input to the computer program.

7 The designated evacuation routes were then translated into a series of link / nodes for each individual subsector. Subsectors were further divided into several population centroids, each representing an individual population concentration within the subsector, which requires a separate local access route to reach the primary evacuation routes.

4 The link / node network representing the evacuation routes, and the location of the population centroids s

representing various segments of the communities, are depicted in Figures 6a and 6b. The figure also i

illustrates the links used by the traffic evacuating from each population centroid area. The evacuation routes to be used by evacuees from each population centroid area is further described in Table 10. This

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4 table lists the numbers of each node through which the evacuation traffic passes in route from each population centroid area to the EPZ boundary.

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1 15 Roadway Characteristics for Evacuation Network A description of roadway characteristics represented by each link in the evacuation route network is presented in Table 11. Evacuation network links are identified by the numbered A and B nodes which represent either end of the link. The order of the nodes (from A to B) indicates the direction of travel.

Also identified is the link travel time (under normal conditions), length, traffic capacity, and roadway identification. A brief description of each is given below:

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• Travel Time on a particular link is determined by dividing the normal traffic speed on each segment

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by the link length. Travel time is expressed in minutes, i

• Distance represents the length of the roadway link and is expressed in miles, j

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Table 10

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EVACUATION ROUTE LINK-NODE DESCRIPTION BY CENTROID Cea-troid Evacuation Route il 2002 1012 1008 206 210 214 216 218 220 224 228 230 232 234 236 240 244 246 248 249 250 252 254 12 2005 1017 1018 1019 210 214 216 218 220 224 228 230 232 234 2% 240 244 246 248 249 250 252 254 13 2007 1022 2006 214 216 218 220 224 228 230 232 234 2% 240 244 246 248 249 250 252 254 21 2003 1009 1008 206 210 214 216 218 220 224 228 230 232 234 236 240 244 246 248 249 250 252 254 22 2004 1018 1019 210 214 216 218 220 224 228 230 232 234 2M 240 244 246 248 249 250 252 254 i

2.3 2006 214 216 218 220 224 228 230 232 234 236 24C 244 246 248 249 250 252 254 24 2008 218 220 224 228 230 232 234 2M 240 244 246 248 249 250 252 254 25 2008 218 220 224 228 230 232 234 236 240 244 246 248 249 250 252 254 26 2009 220 224 228 230 232 234 2M 240 244 246 248 249 250 252 254 27 2038 1085 1033 1032 224 228 230 232 2M 236 240 244 246 248 249 250 252 254 31 1026 1027 2009 220 224 228 230 232 234 2h 240 244 246 248 249 250 252 254 32 2013 1087 1054 2021 1062 236 240 244 246 248 249 250 252 254 33 2011 1032 224 228 230 232 2M 236 240 244 246 248 249 250 252 254

]

34 1023 1024 2008 218 220 224 228 230 232 234 236 240 244 246 248 249 250 252 254 35 1029 1030 2011 1032 224 228 230 232 234 2% 240 244 246 248 249 250 252 254 36 2010 1029 2013 1087 1054 2021 1062 2028 1066 1067 1069 1071 244 246 248 249 273 di 2016 1040 228 230 232 234 236 240 244 246 248 249 250 252 254 42 2015 1037 2014 1038 2017 1039 1040 228 230 232 234 2% 240 244 246 248 249 250 252 254 43 2017 1039 1040 228 230 232 234 236 240 244 246 245 249 250 252 254 44 2014 1038 2017 1039 1040 228 230 232 234 236 240 244 246 248 249 250 252 254 45 2019 2020 1045 234 236 240 244 246 248 249 250 252 254 46 2039 10 % 2016 1040 230 232 234 2% 240 244 246 248 249 250 252 254 O

47 2040 2016 1040 230 232 234 2M 240 244 246 248 249 250 252 254 v

$1 2022 1087 1054 2021 1062 236 240 244 246 248 249 273 52 2023 2024 106) d 61 2018 2019 2020 1045 234 236 240 244 246 248 249 250 252 254 62 2021 1062 2% 240 244 246 248 249 250 252 254 63 2019 2020 1044 1045 2M 2M 240 244 246 248 249 250 252 254 70 2020 1044 1045 234 236 240 244 246 248 249 250 71 2020 1044 1045 234 236 240 244 246 248 249 250 72 2028 1066 2029 1065 240 244 246 248 249 273 73 1065 240 244 246 248 249 273 74 2030 1096 1072 1097 2041 1076 2033 1077 1078 252 254 81 2027 1067 1069 1071 244 246 248 249 273 82 2026 2027 1067 1068 2032 1073 1075 1076 2033 1077 1079 83 2031 1072 1097 2041 1076 2033 1077 1078 252 254 84 2032 1073 1075 248 249 273 85 2033 1077 1079 86 2041 1076 2033 1077 1078 252 254 91 2025 2023 2024 1063 92 2024 1063 101 2042 2043 102 2044 2045 103 2046 2047 Ill 2000 1810 1005 1111 1101 1100 257 259 112 1002 1001 2001 1007 202 206 210 214 216 218 220 224 228 230 232 2M 2% 240 244 246 248 249 250 252 254 113 2004 1007 202 206 210 214 216 218 720 224 228 230 232 2M 2% 240 244 246 248 249 250 252 254 Wilbur Smith Associates 42

Table 11 (3

LINK-NODE NETWORK IDENTIFICATION AND CHARACTERISTICS Inc Hold Anode BNode T.imt Dist Can Cap Roadway Identification 11 2002 2.3 0.3 n/a n/a Centroid Connector 12 2005 2.6 0.3 n/a n/a Centroid Connector 13 2007 3.2 0.4 n/a n/a Centroid Connector 21 2003 4.1 0.5 n/a n/a Centroid Connector 22 2004 3.7 0.5 n/a n/a Centroid Connector 23 2006 7.4 0.9 n/a n/a Centroid Connector 24 2008 6.1 0.8 n/a n/a Centroid Connector 25 2008 4.5 0.6 n/a n/a Centroid Connector 26 2009 1.2 0.2 n/a n/a Centroid Connector 27 2038 4.0 1.0 n/a n/a Centroid Connector 31 1026 4.2 0.5 n/a n/a Centroid Connector 32 2013 1.6 0.2 n/a n/a Centroid Connector 33 2011 4.2 0.5 n/a n/a Centroid Connector O

34 1023 8.0 1.0 n/a n/a Centroid Connector 35 1029 6.4 0.8 n/a n/a Centroid Connector 36 2010 4.2 0.5 n/a n/a Centroid Connector 41 2016 3.0 0.4 n/a n/a Centroid Connector 42 2015 5.4 0.70 n/a n/a Centroid Connector 43 20i7 4.5 0.6 n/a n/a Centroid Connector 44 2014 2.4 0.3 n/a n/a Centroid Connector 45 2019 4.2 0.5 n/a n/a Centroid Connector 46 2039 2.0 0.5 n/a n/a Centroid Connector 47 2040 0.8 0.2 n/a n/a Centroid Connector 51 2022 0.8 0.1 n/a n/a Centroid Connector 52 2023 1.6 0.2 n/a n/a Centroid Connector 61 2018 4.2 0.5 n/a n/a Centroid Connector 62 2021 3.3 0.4 n/a n/a Centroid Connector 63 2019 4.0 0.5 n/a n/a Centroid Connector 71 2020 4.8 0.6 n/a n/a Centroid Connector 72 2028 3.9 0.5 n/a n/a Centroid Connector 73 1065 6.4 0.8 n/a n/a Centroid Connector 74 2030 2.4 0.3 n/a n/a Centroid Connector j

81 2027 12.0 1.5 n/a n/a Centroid Connector Dtb 43

Table 11 (continued)

Inc Hold Anode BNode Ij!pe Dis!

Can

_ cad Roadway Identification 82 2026 2.1 0.3 n/a n/a Centroid Connector 83

-2031 2.7 0.3 n/a n/a Centroid Connector 84 2032 2.4 0.3 n/a n/a Centroid Connector 85 2033 3.9 0.5 n/a n/a Centroid Connector 86 2041 4.0 0.5 n/a n/a Centroid Connector 91 2025 1.6 0.2 n/a n/a Centroid Connector 92 2024 6.9 0.9 n/a n/a Centroid Connector 101 2042 4.0 0.5 n/a n/a Centroid Connector 102 2044 4.0 0.5 n/a n/a Centroid Connector 103 2046 1.6 0.2 n/a n/a Centroid Connector i

til 2000 0.5 0.1 n/a n/a Centroid Connector 112 1002 0.8 0.1 n/a n/a Centroid Connector 113 2001 0.8 0.1 n/a n/a Centroid Connector 202 206 2.5 1.0 1800 1196 I-5 Northbound 206 210 2.5 1.0 1800 11 %

I-5 Northbound 210 214 1.4 0.6 1800 668 I-5 Nonhbound 4

214 216 0.8 0.3 1800 398 I-5 Northbound (4

216 218 0.6 0.3 1800 293 I-5 Nonhbound 218 220 0.8 0.3 1800 387 I-5 Nonhbound 220 224 1.7 0.7 1800 833 I-5 Nonhbound i

224 228 5.9 2.5 1800 2886 I-5 Northbound 228 230 0.3 0.1 1800 140 I-5 Nonhbound 230 232 1.1 0.4 1800 528 I-5 Northbound 232 234 1.4 0.6 1800 680 I-5 Northbound 234 236 1.2 0.5 2250 733 I-5 Nonhbound 236 240 3.0 1.3 2250 1833 I-5 Nonhbound 240 244 2.4 1.0 2250 1466 I-5 Nonhbound 244 246 2.1 0.9 2700 1566 I-5 Northbound 246 248 1.3 0.5 2700 950 I-5 Nonhbound 248 249 2.2 0.9 3150 1868 I-5 Northbound 249 273 2.9 1.2 900 715 SR 73 Northbound 249 250 1.8 0.7 2250 1070 I-5 Nonhbound 250 252 1.1 0.4 2250 660 I-5 Nonhbound 252 254 0.1 0.0 2250 58 I-5 Northbound 257 259 17.5 7.3 1800 8565 1-5 Southbound 1001 2001 7.1 1.8 300 522 Old Route 101 1002 1001 2.0 0.4 300 123 San Onofre State Beach Svc Rd.

O o

Table 11 (continued)

Inc Hold Anode BNode lime pist C.ap

. Cap Roadway Identification 1007 202 0.7 0.2 300 52 I-5 On-Ramp Northbound 1008 206 0.8 0.2 300 58 I-5 On-Ramp Nonhbound 1009 1008 0.3 0.1 300 14 El Camino Real 1012 1008 0.6 0.1 300 29 Ave Del Pres /1-5 Overpass 1017 1018 0.4 0.1 300 20 Ave Mendocino 1018 1019 0.5 0.1 500 58 El Camino Real 1019 210 0.5 0.1 300 35 I-5 On-Ramp Nonhbound 1022 2006 0.4 0.1 300 29 S. El Camino Real 1023 1024 0.2 0.0 250 11 Ave Presidio 1024 2008 0.4 0.1 250 17 Ave Presidio 1026 1027 0.2 0.0 250 11 Ave Palizada 1027 2009 0.7 0.1 250 32 Ave Palizada 1029 1030 0.9 0.3 500 146 Ave Pico 1029 2013 3.4 1.0 300 293 Pacific Coast Highway 1030 1029 0.8 0.3 500 146 Ave Pico 1030 20!!

0.7 0.2 500 117 Ave Pico 1032 224 0.4 0.1 300 29 I-5 On-Ramp Northbound 1033 1032 0.9 0.3 750 220 Ave Pico 1036 2016 1.5 0.3 250 73 Ave Vaquero 1037 2014 0.3 0.1 250 14 Ave Vaquero 1038 2018 6.0 1.0 250 293 Camino Capistrano 1038 2017 1.2 0.3 500 146 Camino de Estrella 1039 IN0 0.5 0.1 500 58 Camino de Estrella 1040 228 1.0 0.3 300 73 1-5 On-Ramp Nonhbound INO 230 0.7 0.2 300 49 I-5 On-Ramp Nonhbound 1044 1045 0.4 0.1 300 29 I-5 On-Ramp Nonhbound 1045 234 1.0 0.3 300 73 1-5 On-Ramp Northbound 1054 2021 2.0 0.5 600 293 Doheny Pk Rd 1055 2023 1.0 0.3 500 146 Pacific Coast Highway 1062 236 0.9 0.2 300 64 I-5 On-Ramp Nonhbound 1062 2028 2.8 0.7 300 202 Camino Capistrano 1064 1%6 0.2 0.1 300 29 Camino Capistrano 1065 240 0.8 0.2 300 58 I-5 On Ramp Nonhbound 1066 1067 2.2 0.5 500 269 Camino Capistrano 1066 2029 0.4 0.1 300 32 San Juan Creek 1067 1068 1,4 0.2 500 134 Camino Capistrano 1067 1069 2.2 0.4 500 264 Del Obispo St 1068 2032 3.5 0.7 500 428 Camino Capistrano 45

t Table 11 (continued)

Inc Hold AMeds BNode Time gis

.c. an

_Can Roadway Identification 1071 244 0.7 0.2 300 52 I-5 On-Ramp Northbound 1072 1097 0.6 0.3 500 176 Ortega Highway 1073 1075 10.0 2.5 300 733 Junipero Serra Road 1

1073 1080 9.6 2.4 300 703 Camino Capistrano i

1075 1076 0.1 0.0 300 8

Junipero Serra Road 1076 2033 2.5 0.6 300 181 Rancho Viejo Road 1077 1078 0.5 0.1 300 29 Avery Parkway i

1077 1079 0.9 0.3 600 158 Marguerite Parkway 1078 252 0.9 0.2 300 67 I-5 On-Ramp Northbound 1080 1078 0.5 0.1 300 29 Avery Parkway 1085 1033 0.8 0.2 750 193 Ave Pico I

1087 1054 1.0 0.2 250 58 Camino las Ramblas 1087 2022 3.1 0.9 500 539 Pacific Coast Highway 1095 1111 3.5 1.4 300 425 Old U.S. Route 101 1096 1072 0.7 0.2 500 129 La Novia Ave 1097 1071 0.5 0.3 500 158 Ortega Highway 1097 2041 2.1 0.5 600 305 Rancho Viejo Road 1100 257 0.8 0.2 300 58 I-5 On-Ramp Southbound i

1101 1100 0.5 0.1 250 29 Old U.S. Rt 101/I-5 Underpass 1110 1095 0.2 0.1 300 29 Old U.S. Rt 101/I-5 Underpass 1111 1101 0.1 0.0 300 14 Old U.S. Rt 101 2000 1110 12.2 5.1 300 1495 Old U.S. Rt 101 2001 1007 0.4 0.1 300 29 Basilone Rd 2002 1012 2.4 0.3 250 88 Ave Del Presidente 2003 1009 1.0 0.2 500 117 El Camino Real 2004 1018 5.8 1.2 500 704 El Camino Real 2005 1017 1.0 0.2 250 58 Ave Del Presidente 2006 214 0.8 0.2 300 61 I-5 On-Ramp Northbound 2007 1022 0.2 0.1 300 14 El Camino Real 2007 1023 2.4 0.5 450 293 Ave Del Presidente 2008 218 0.5 0.1 300 35 I-5 On-Ramp Northbound j

2009 220 0.4 0.1 300 29 l-5 On-Ramp Northbound 2010 1029 2.8 0.7 500 410 El Camino Real i

2011 1030 0.8 0.3 500 146 Ave Pico 2011 1032 0.7 0.2 500 123 Ave. Pico 2012 1085 3.0 0.5 250 146 Ave Presidio 2013 1087 5.7 1.6 300 484 Pacific Coast Highway 2014 1038 7.9 1.3 250 384 Camino Capistrano i

46 i

Table 11 (continued)

Inc Hold Anode ENode Time Dist

_C_a2 Cao Roadway identification a

2015 1036 2.4 0.4 300 117 Ave Vaquero 2015 1037 3.8 0.6 300 184 Ave Vaquero 2016 1040 3.8 0.8 750 7N Camino de Los Mares 2017 1039 1.0 0.2 500 117 Camino de Estrella 2018 2019 3.0 0.5 250 146 California Canyon 2018 2021 4.6 0.8 250 225 Camino Capistrano 2019 2020 0.8 0.1 250 38 Via California 2020 1044 0.5 0.1 600 58 Camino las Ramblas 2020 1045 0.7 0.2 600 88 Camino las Ramblas 2021 1062 0.9 0.2 300 67 Camino Capistrano 2022 1055 0.5 0.1 500 70 Pacific Coast Highway 2022 1087 1.1 0.2 250 67 Pacific Coast Highway 2023 2024 6.2 1.8 500 1061 Pacific Coast Highway 2024 1063 6.2 1.8 500 1056 Pacific Coast Highway 2025 2023 2.0 0.5 600 293 Del Obispo Street 2026 2027 2.4 0.5 600 146 Del Obispo Street 2027 1067 0.9 0.2 500 88 Del Obispo Street Q

2028 1064 3.0 0.8 300 219 Camino Capistrano V

2028 1066 3.4 0.9 500 498 Camino Capistrano 2029 1065 1.1 0.2 300 67 Valle Road 2030 1096 0.6 0.2 250 58 1.a Novia Ave l

2031 1072 2.1 0.6 500 363 Ortega Highway 2032 1073 3.0 0.6 250 181 Camino Capistrano 2033 1077 4.9 1.4 300 416 Rancho Viejo Rd1 Marguerite Pkwy 2038 1085 2.0 1.0 750 880 Ave Pico 2039 1033 2.0 0.5 250 146 Calle Frontera 2039 1036 0.8 2.0 250 586 Calle Frontera 2040 2016 3.6 1.5 500 879 Camino de Los Mares 2N1 1076 2.8 0.8 300 234 Rancho Viejo Road 2N2 2M3 1.7 0.5 500 293 St. of the Golden Lantern j

2N4 2045 2.0 0.6 900 528 Niguel Road 2N6 2N7 1.0 0.3 750 264 Crown Valley Parkway I

O 47

e Capacity identifies the number of vehicles which can be accommodated on a particular roadway link during a fixed increment of time. In this case, capacity has been expressed in vehicles per 15-minute i

)

increment.

LJ e Roadway Identification is the name of the roadway facility of which the link is a segment.

The assumptions utilized in developing the link travel times and capacities are discussed in the following sections.

7.5.1 Dire._cfional Flow All roadways will operate as they do under present conditions. As an example, for a four-lane, two-way facility, only the two outbound lanes would be utilized for evacuation under normal conditions, with the two inbound lanes used for circulating traffic and/or emergency vehicles.

7.5.2 Travel Speeds Speeds were assigned to each link according to the character of the roadway. Freeway speeds were assigned at 25 miles per hour with ramp speeds at 15 miles per hour. Four-lane roadways were generally n

assigned speeds ranging from 15 miles per hour to 25 miles per hour depending on posted speed limits,

()

roadway quality, and access control. Speeds for two-lane roadways ranged from 10 miles per hour to 25 miles per hour. Centroid connectors were considered as local or neighborhood streets and assigned a speed of 8 miles per hour.

The assigned speeds reflect roadway conditions where traffic control signals have been switched from normal operation to a flashing mode. Under these conditions, the primary evacuation route is given the right-of-way (flashing yellow signal) and side streets are given lower priority (flashing red signal).

Manual traffic control at key intersections, where primary evacuation routes merge, is also assumed in and reflected by estimated travel speeds.

It should be noted that the above-mentioned speed assignments represent average speeds only when the roadway facilities are operating below the assigned roadway capacity. Once traffic flow reaches or exceeds the roadway capacity, the computer simulation model begins to form traffic queues on the "over-capacity" links and any adjacent links affected by the over-capacity link. The computer model adjusts the travel time to reflect the congested conditions.

t i

w) 48

J I

7.5.3 Roadway Conditions Capacities assigned to each roadway take into consideration general roadway geometrics as well as side road interferences. For the purpose of this analysis, the following capacities by roadway type were assigned:

j e Freeway - An average 1,800 vehicles per lane per hour was estimated for I-5 and the San Joaquin Hills Corridor facility.

e Interchange Ramp - 1,200 vehicles per hour for a single-lane on-ramp.

j e High-Type Roadway - Two-and four-lane roadways with limited access were assigned capacities of 1,200 vehicles per lane per hour.

e Unlimited Access Roadways - Two-Lid four-lane facilities with substantial side-street interference were assigned capacities of 1,000 vehicles per lane per hour.

The average lane capacities summarized above are consistent with those used in standard traffic engineering and planning studies and should be considered reasonable estimates for emergency evacuation I

conditions.

I(

Once an evacuation is well underway, most vehicles would be headed in the same direction. Because of l(

the directional flow and controlled routings, lane capacities could be higher than those observed under normal circumstances. Another factor which could contribute to smoother flow and higher capacities is that the drivers involved in the evacuation would probably be the most seasoned, experienced driver of each household.

e 49 y

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O Chapter 8 NOTIFICATION AND PREPARATION TIMES FOR GENERAL PUBLIC There are two distinct events which are necessary to initiate the evacuation. One event is the direct notification of public agencies, schools, and institutions requiring special evacuation considerations. The J

second event is the dissemination of the evacuation warning to the general population. Both of these events must include instructions regarding the sectors to be evacuated. The first event is assumed to be accomplished by telephone from the various emergency response organizations to each affected group.

The second event would be initiated by a public warning system, which would combine an acoustical warning system by sirens and then be supplemented by instructions over selected broadcast stations.

8.1 Public Evacuation Time Components For the general population, the time required to evacuate is comprised of several individual time components. During an evacuation, each individual would react differently in terms of actions and speed.

Therefore, each of these time components must be considered as a distribution of individual times rather than a single, fixed-time increment. The sequence of actions during an evacuation has been formulated to reflect those actions which may be expected from the majority of the population. The evacuation time components used in this analysis are as follows:

1.

Receipt of Nonfication - The time required for the general population within the affected area to receive notification of evacuation once the public warning is initiated by the local authorities.

2.

Return to Home - The time required for persons to return to their homes, if not already at home, prior to their evacuation of the area. This reflects the time required to close up businesses and places of work.

3.

Departurefrom Home-Once home, the time required to assemble family members, pack essential items for the evacuation, and secure the home prior to their leaving.

4.

Evacuation Travel Time - Once underway, the time required for the population to travel out of the affected area.

Each evacuation time component can be expressed graphically as a normal distribution curve where the height of any given point along the curve represents the percentage of the population completing that 50

I particular public response component at a given point in time. The response time curves representing the first three components, when combined, form the mobilization time distribution. Mobilization time is that period between the initial evacuation notification and the time that the person (s) leave home. It

~

is the mobilization time distribution which controls the rate at which vehicles enter onto the evacuation i

roadway network.

~

8.2 Notification and Preoaration Times for General Public In this study, two different mobilization distributions were developed-one to represent daytime public response and one to reflect a nighttime response. Public response during the daytime scenarios would vary somewhat for tourists / beach visitors, transient workers, and residents. For example, residents and some tourists registered in local hotels / motels would begin evacuating immediately. To simplify the analysis, it was assumed that all public responses would include the return-to-home time component, thus slightly increasing the daytime mobilization time requirements.

The individual and combined public response curves are illustrated in Figures 7 and 8 for the daytime and nighttime condition, respectively.

1 The public response time information was combined with the actual travel time needed to travel from their origin point within the EPZ to the EPZ boundary. These total evacuation times are discussed in Chapters 10 and 11.

\\

t t

i 1

4

/

51

V (J'

(v~')

a 100 80 7

5 3

/

e

'o 60 f

Daytime Response g

Cumulative Percene of Population Completing Respinse t'y Elapsed Time Elapsed Tune")

Z 5

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 d

I-Receive 24 58 90 91 100 g

Warning 2-Return 4

8 28 56 82 93 100 a

y 03 3-trave 2

5 8

11 14 17 33 50 66 82 91 100 llome Elapsed Time"8 8

20 r

i5 30 45 eo 75 90 ios 20 1+2+3 4

19 47 73 93 99 100 Mobilizatkm tma hem One Percens (t) Minutes after alert O

I I

I I

15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 135 ELAPSED TIME IN MINUTES ESTIMATED DAYTIME RESPONSE Figure 7

O O

O 100 8

80 2

D f'*h

@i 60 8

I l

4Q

/

p, /

gj Nightime Response h

Cumulative Percent cd Population Completing Response by Dasped Time u.

Elapsed Time"'

f 5

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 1-Receive Warning 24 52 37 92 94 9R 100

/

24 rave Itame il 18 34 50 67 83 87 100 g

g O

Dapsed Tame")

15 30 45 60 75 90 los 120

~

i+2 Mobilization 15 53 an 94 100 Itn its stui j

I.,_._

O t

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 l

ELAPSED TIME IN MINUTES l

ESTIMATED NIGHTTIME RESPONSE wm Figure 8

+

Chapter 9 SITE AREA EMERGENCY EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES A Site Area Emergency is characterized by events which would require protective measures in the immediate vicinity of SONGS. As specified in the Emergency Response Plan for SONGS, evacuation of all non-essential SONGS' peisonnel and visitors would be mandatory at the General Emergency level.

At the direction of the Station Emergency Director, a portion or all of the non-emergency response personnel and/or visitors could be evacuated during the Site Area Emergency level. As a precaution, the Marine Corps emergency response plan states that the evacuation of base personnel at the Site Area Emergency level would depend on the nature and severity of events which has occurred at SONGS.

Evacuation time estimates for the Site Area Emergency evacuation assumed that Marine Corps base personnel along with their dependents are evacuated.

San Onofre State Beach visitors would be evacuated at the Alert level by State Park and Recreation Department personnel. For purposes of the evacuation time estimates for the Site Area Emergency level, all beach visitors are assumed to have already left the area. The general public located within the Orange County portion of the north sector EPZ would not be included in a Site Area Emergency evacuation.

9.I Evacuation Demand Estimates i

The estimated number of vehicles which would be used by those population segments included in the Site l

Area Emergency evacuation is summarized in Table 12. Vehicle estimates for the evacuation of Camp Pendleton Marine Corps dependents assumes that one vehicle would be used by each family housing unit.

p l

Since some dependents may not have a personal auto available at the time notification to evacuate is given, this assumption yields a conservative (high) estimate of the number of vehicles evacuating the area.

(Persons without a vehicle available would evacuate with neighbors or friends, or by using Marine Corps vehicles provided for the evacuation.)

k i

52

- _. ~ _

l l

Table 12 l

ESTIMATED NUMBER OF EVACUATION VEHICLES SITE AREA EMERGENCY LEVEL Population Segment Estimated Number of Vehicles Camp Pendleton Marine Corps Base 1,299*

Dependents Camp Pendleton Marine Corps Base Personnel Use Military Transport Vehicles *

• Assumes one vehicle evacuatmg per family housms unit.

'* Camp Pendleton Manne Corps Base Motor Transport has a total lift capability of well over 26,000 persons at one ame.

i 9,2 Evacuation Time Analysis Cases and Evacuation Routes Most events in the Site Area Emergency classification have a potential for significant releases of radioactive material to the environment. Evacuation routes would be determined in part by prevailing wind conditions at the time the areas adjacent to SONGS are evacuated. The evacuation scenarios selected for analyses thus reflect two potential evacuation routing combinations for Camp Pendleton dependents and base personnel:

1.

Camp Pendleton dependents and base personnel evacuate to the south via Basilone Road /Vandergrift Boulevard.

2.

Camp Pendleton dependents evacuate to the south on I-5 via Basilone Road interchange, while Camp Pendleton base personnel evacuate to the south via Basilone Road /Vandergrift Boulevard.

For the purpose of the analyses, the following assumptions were made concerning the conditions at the time notification of a Site Area Emergency is given:

i

• Evacuation of Camp Pendleton and San Onofre Recreation Beach populations has been initiated at the Alert level, and all persons are cleared of the immediate area.

t 53

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J

1

• Appropriate authorities will initiate the mobilization of personnel responsible for traffic control in the affected area.

• Appropriate authorities will initiate the mobilization of personnel responsible for traffic control in the affected area.

9.3 Evacuation Time Estimates In the development of time estimates for a Site Area Emergency evacuation, the analysis considered the critical points which would " meter" evacuation traffic flow of Camp Pendleton Marine Corps dependents from the area. This would primarily occur near the I-5/Basilone Road interchange. The evacuation time for military personnel (via Basilone Road /Vandergrift Boulevard) would be more dependent on the mobilization time of military transport vehicles for their evacuation than the capacity constraints along Basilone Road in the vicinity of the I 5 interchange.

4 Evacuation time estimates reflect the following evacuation response assumptions:

• Manual traffic control is in place at Basilone Road /I-5 interchange and at critical locations along Basilone Road within Camp Pendleton within 45 minutes of evacuation notification.

• Camp Pendleton Marine Corps dependents mobilize according to San Onofre Daytime Response (see Figure 7),

9J.1 Evacuation Condition 1 i

)

The analysis of traffic conditions indicates that the last Camp Pendleton dependents would exit the south sector EPZ (Basilone Road) approximately 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> and 45 minutes after notification.

9.3.2 Evacuation Condition 2 4

l in the condition where Camp Pendleton dependents would evacuate to the south on I-5 via Basilone Road, it is estimated that the last vehicle would enter the freeway approximately 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> and 15 minutes after notification and would clear the south sector EPZ approximately 15 minutes later.

Ov 54

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9.3.3 Evacuation of Camo Pendleton Military Personnel e

r Evacuation time estimates for Camp Pendleton militiry personnel would largely depend on the mobilization time of the Base Motor Transport vehicles. Given the large lift capability of the Base Motor Transport (over 26,000 persons at one time), it is estimated that all military personnel areas within five miles of SONGS could be evacuated within 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> and 15 minutes. This includes the areas of:

• San Onofre Family Housing

• Mobile Home Park

• Base Camp San Onofre

• Base Camp Talega e Base Camp San Mateo

• Base Camp Horno The total number of military personnel which may require transportation is approximately 9,700 persons.

The estimated evacuation time is based on the mobilization of men and transport vehicles and the loading of personnel to be completely within approximately I hour and 45 minutes of notification.

O 55

J Chapter 10 GENERAL EMERGENCY EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES l

l In the development of evacuation time estimates, the emphasis was placed on the more densely populated j

areas within the north sector. Approximately 85 percent of the total resident population within the EPZ is located in Orange County, north of SONGS. The time estimates to evacuate the 5-mile,10-mile, and entire EPZ north sector areas reflect the implementation of evacuation plans developed in the Orange County Emergency Response Plan. Similarly, evacuation time estimates for the south sector, which include those subsectors located within San Diego and Camp Pendleton U.S. Marine Corps Base, are

)

based upon the implementation of emerg, ncy response plans for those areas.

i 10.1 Evacuation Time Estimates for General Population l

Evacuation time estimates were made for the general population-those not requiring assistance-for the i

following four conditions:

O l

1.

Daytime Summer Weekend (recreation and tourist peak);

2.

Daytime Summer Weekday (workers at work, some beach visitation);

3.

Nighttime (almost everyone at home);

j 4.

Adverse Weather (rain or dense fog) with Daytime Summer Weekend population conditions.

These conditions and their implications on population are discussed in Chapters 5 and 6.

The time estimate.s for evacuation of the general populace within Orange County and the State Beach

. areas were developed through the use of a computer model which is described in Chapter 2 and in Appendix A. The evacuation time estimates generated by the computer simulation model are listed in Table 13 by analysis sector for each of the four scenarios. The evacuation times listed in Table 13 do not include time estimates required to evacuate special institutions, SONGS' non-essential personnel and visitors, or the populated areas within Camp Pend!eton U.S. Marine Corps Base. General Emergency evacuation time estimates for these population segments are discussed later in this chapter.

l 4

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Table 13

SUMMARY

OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR GENERAL POPULATION A. With Existing Evacuation Routing Plan I

Evacuation Time (in Hours) (b) 0-2 Miles 0-5 Miles 0-10 Miles 0-EPZ Boundary (c)

Condition North South North Only North South Summer Weekend 2.75 5.00 2.75 5.50 6.25 2.75 Summer Weekday 2.50 5.00 2.50 5.50 6.25 2.50 Nighttime 2.00 4.25 2.00 5.50 6.00 2.00 4

Adverse Weather (d) 2.75 5.50 2.75 6.25 7.25 2.75 B. With Balanced Evacuation Routing on I-5 and PCH OQ Evacuation Time (in Hours)(b) 0-2 Miles 0-5 Miles 0-10 Miles 0-EPZ Boundary (c)

Condition North South North Only North South 1

Summer Weekend 4.00 5.00 6.25 i

Summer Weekday 4.00 5.00 6.25

{

Nighttime 3.50 4.50 5.75 Adverse Weather (d) 4.25 5.50 7.25 l

(a) Does not include U.S. Manne Corps Base, Camp Pendleton.

(b) Elapsed time between pubhc warning and the crossing of the EPZ boundary by the last exiong vehicle.

(c) The EPZ boundary in the south sector is located along the 10-mile radius arc.

(d) Reflects peak summer weekemi permanent and transient populauons and !$ percent reduction in the capacities of all evacuation roadways.

• Tune estimated for this sector would not be affected by balanced evacuation routing on northbound 1-15 and PCH.

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.-. - - ~ _ ---

i i

10.1.1 Summer Weekend i

i 6

l f

The evacuation time assessment indicates that an evacuation during daytime on a summer weekend would result in one of the longest time periods to evacuate the Orange County and State Beach subsectors.

l l

Evacuation of the entire north sector EPZ population under these conditions would require approximately 6 hours6.944444e-5 days <br />0.00167 hours <br />9.920635e-6 weeks <br />2.283e-6 months <br /> and 15 minutes. Evacuation of the areas within the 10-mile radius is estimated to require 5 hours5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br /> I

and 30 minutes.

. The estimated rate of evacuation is summarized in Table 14. Approximately 75 percent of the north i

sector population would be able to clear the EPZ boundary within 4 hours4.62963e-5 days <br />0.00111 hours <br />6.613757e-6 weeks <br />1.522e-6 months <br /> and 15 minutes, with the I

remaining 25 percent requiring an additional 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br />.

The limiting factors in the 10-mile sector evacuation are the single-lane northbound I-5 on-ramps in the 4

northern portion of the 10-mile radius area. Traffic queues forming at these locations would be metered at a rate of approximately 1,200 vehicles per hour and would trail behind all other area traffic using I-5

[

to evacuate the EPZ.

f 10.1.2 Summer Weekday The analysis results for the weekday scenario are similar to those of the weekend scenario. Evacuation of the entire area within the EPZ boundary would require approximately 6 hours6.944444e-5 days <br />0.00167 hours <br />9.920635e-6 weeks <br />2.283e-6 months <br /> and 15 minutes to complete. Evacuation of only the area inside the 10-mile radius is estimated to take 5 hours5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br /> and 30 minutes for this population condition.

i There is no significant difference between the evacuation time estimates for the weekend and weekday scenarios within the north sector. This is because the number of additional beach and tourist vehicles generated on a summer weekend is being offset by increasing transient workers on weekday.

The estimated rate of evacuation (Table 14) indicates that for the summer weekday scenario, approximately 75 percent of the population within the 10-mile, and entire EPZ (north sector) areas would complete the evacuation within 4 hours4.62963e-5 days <br />0.00111 hours <br />6.613757e-6 weeks <br />1.522e-6 months <br /> and 15 minutes.

10.1.3 Nighttime An evacuation under nighttime conditions is estimated to require slightly less time than the daytime summer conditions. This results from: 1) fewer people within the EPZ to be evacuated; and 2) shorter I

mobilization time for the general population since most families would already be at home. (See Figures t

7 and 8.) This is off-set somewhat by the presence of and utilization of more vehicles by resident households which have more than one vehicle.

.58

=.

Table 14 r'

ESTIMATED RATE OF EVACUATION NORTH SECTOR GENERAL POPULATION Hours to Evacuate Condition and 25% of 50% of 75% of Area of Evacuation Population Population Population All

~

Daytime Summer Weekend 0-5 Miles 1.50 2.50 3.25 5.00 0-10 Miles 1.75 2.75 4.00 5.50 0 to EPZ Boundary 1.75 2.75 4.25 6.25 Daytime Summer Weekday 0-5 Miles 1.50 2.25 3.25 5.00 0-10 Miles 1.75 3.00 4.25 5.50 0 to EPZ Boundary 1.75 2.75 4.25 6.25 Nichttime 0-5 Miles 1.50 2.25 3.00 4.25 0-10 Miles 1.75 2.75 3.75 5.50 0 to EPZ Boundary 1.50 2.50 4.00 6.00

(

Daytime Summer Weekend.

Adverse Weather 0-5 Miles 1.75 2.50 3.75 5.50 010 Miles 2.00 3.25 5.50 6.25 0 to EPZ Boundary 1.75 3.25 4.75 7.25 i

Wilbur Smith Associates 4

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e 4

i Evacuation of the area within the EPZ boundary is estimated to take approximately 6 hours6.944444e-5 days <br />0.00167 hours <br />9.920635e-6 weeks <br />2.283e-6 months <br />. Evacuation l

of only the population within the 10-mile radius of SONGS would take approximately 5 hours5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br /> to l

complete. Since evacuation route assignments remain the same in the nighttime scenario as in the weekend and weekday scenarios, the identified roadway constraints would generally apply in the nighttime evacuation.

4 The approximate rate of evacuation for this scenario, as summarized in Table 14, indicates that for all i

north sector area evacuations, approximately 75 percent of the population would complete the evacuation within 4 hours4.62963e-5 days <br />0.00111 hours <br />6.613757e-6 weeks <br />1.522e-6 months <br />.

4 1

i 10.1.4 Adverse Weather The impact of adverse weather on evacuation time was tested for the peak population summer weekend L

]

condition. For the analysis, adverse weather conditions were simulated by reducing all evacuation

]

roadway capacities in the computer model simulation. A study published by the Highway Research Board j

in 1970 on "The Environmental Influence of Rain on Freeway Capacity" concluded that the capacity of freeways during rain can be expected to be between 81 and 86 percent of the dry weather capacity. The j

study did not, however, consider the influence of rain on surface street capacity.

i

}

For the purpose of our analysis, it was assumed that capacities would be reduced by 15 percent for both freeway and surface street evacuation routes during adverse weather conditions. An evacuation roadway having a capacity of 1,000 vehicles per hour under normal weather conditions would thus be assigned a capacity of 850 vehicles per hour for adverse weather conditions. This assumes only minor potential

. flooding of roadways with no reduction in usable number of lanes or road closures on the major evacuation routes.

1 The evacuation time analysis indicated that such adverse weather would have a moderate impact on l

evacuation time. The 7-hour and 15-minute evacuation time, estimated for the entire EPZ during the adverse weather condition, is approximately one hour longer than that for normal weather conditions.

10.2 Special Institutions Evacuation time estimates for special institutions, such as schools, hospitals, retirement and nursing homes, Camp Pendleton U.S. Marine Corps Base, and SONGS non-essential personnel and visitors, are summarized in Table 15 and briefly discussed in the sections which follow.

Generally, the time estimates indicate that the schools, hospitals, and retirement and nursing homes would be evacuated in equal or slightly less time than that required for the general population. The evacuation time estimated for Camp Pendleton is slightly shorter than that for special institutions within the general

- populace.

4

1 Table 15 SPECIAL INSTITUTION v

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

SUMMARY

Evacuation Time (Hn.) by Sector Institution 5 Miles 10 Miles Entire EPZ Scenario Schools 3.75 4.50 5.75 Weekday Hospitals 0.00 5.00 6.00 All Retirement Homes 5.00 6.00 6.00 All U.S. Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton 3.00 5.50 5.50 All SONGS Non-Essential Personnel

-Northbound Evacuation 3.75 0.00 0.00 Weekday

-Southbound Evacuation 2.25 0.00 0.00 Weekday 10.21 Schools Evacuation of public schools within the 5-mile and 10-mile sectors could be accomplished through the l

utilization of available school district and public transit buses which would be present in the EPZ.

Mobilization of these buses is estimated to occur within two hours after notification.

The buses would proceed to assigned schools and pick up all students requiring transportation. Once buses were loaded, they would evacuate the area via Interstate 5 to assigned reception centers. Itis 4

estimated that the evacuation of all public schools in the 5-mile and 10-mile sectors could be accomplished within approximately 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> and 45 minutes. If school district buses are used to evacuate private schools within the 5-mile sector, all public and private schools within this area could be evacuated within 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> and 45 minutes.

Evacuation of all public and private schools within the 10-mile boundary would require the use of buses outside the EPZ. It is assumed that these could be available from the Orange County Transportation Authority (OCTA). OCTA buses would be dispatched from central or northern Orange County.

Preliminary estimates are that initial mobilization and travel time into the EPZ would take from 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> and 45 minutes for the Irvine OCTA facility to 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> and 45 minutes for buses from the Garden Grove OCTA facility.

It is expected that OCTA buses arriving in the area would be assigned to the remaining un-evacuated f

schools in a manner which would give priority to schools closest to SONGS. Using this plan, it is I

estimated that all public and private schools within the 5-to 10-mile and the entire EPZ sectors could be evacuated within 4 hours4.62963e-5 days <br />0.00111 hours <br />6.613757e-6 weeks <br />1.522e-6 months <br /> and 30 minutes and 5 hours5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br /> and 45 minutes, respectively, b) v 61

10.2.2 Hosoitals Ambulances and wheekhair vans required for the evacuation of hospitals within the EPZ would likely be mobilized from locations within the EPZ, in Orange County areas outside the EPZ, and in northern San Diego County. It is estimated that mobilization of the emergency vehicles and travel time to the hospitals would require from 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> to 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> and 30 minutes.

1 j

The three hospitals within the EPZ are located in the 5-to 10-mile and 10-mile to EPZ boundary sectors.

J lt is estimated that all patients requiring special transportation could be evacuated within a 5-hour period 1

from Columbia San Clemente Hospital and Capistrano Beach Nursing Center, and within 6 hours6.944444e-5 days <br />0.00167 hours <br />9.920635e-6 weeks <br />2.283e-6 months <br /> from the Capistrano-by-the-Sea Hospital. This assumes that transportation priorities are given the medical facilities closest to SONGS.

i It should be noted that by the time the emergency vehicles are entering the area (2 to 3% hours after notification), between 40 percent and 75 percent of the general populace already would have completed l

their evacuation. Once the emergency vehicles have picked up their patients. Interstate 5 would be clear.

(

~ of traffic congestion. Therefore, the vehicles evacuating the patients should not encounter any extensive queuing or delays in exiting the EPZ.

4 i

L 10.2.3 Other Facilities / Persons Other categories of persons requiring special transportation assistance have been identified as residents of nursing / retirement homes, clients at the Adult Day Health Care Center, and home-bound persons requiring special transportation help. Transportation for those disabled persons who are wheelchair-bound i

would require wheelchair vans, assumed to be mobilized from central or northern Orange County.

l Collection and evacuation of this group is estimated to require about 6 hours6.944444e-5 days <br />0.00167 hours <br />9.920635e-6 weeks <br />2.283e-6 months <br />. Retirement home residents and other ambulatory persons having restricted mobility would be evacuated primarily by OCTA buses.

l As with the schools and hospitals located within the 10-mile sector, the estimated time of arrival of those buses would be approximately 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> and 45 minutes. Evacuation of the retirement homes (Casa de l

Seniors, Villa del Obispo, Chateau San Juan and San Clemente Senior Center) could be accomplished j

within approximately 6 hours6.944444e-5 days <br />0.00167 hours <br />9.920635e-6 weeks <br />2.283e-6 months <br /> from the time of request for transportation assistance.

I l

l 10.3 SONGS Workers and Visitors Evacuation of non-essential SONGS personnel and visitors is mandatory upon declaration of a General Emergency. As specified in the Emergency Response Plan for SONGS, all non-emergency response personnel would be directed to Site Assembly Area at the Site Area Emergency level and would be prepared to evacuate SONGS immediately upon declaration of a General Emergency. As such, the evacuation response time would be significantly shorter than that for the general population. It is also l

likely that evacuation notification would slightly precede that of the general populace since the

]

communication of the General Emergency would be almost immediate.

62 4

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For the purpose of conservation in estimating evacuation time of non-essential SONGS personnel and visitors, the following assumptions apply to the evacuation of this population segment:

i O e The number of SONGS non-essential personnel and visitor vehicles reflects peak weekday visitation

]

periods which would occur during the periodic fueling and maintenance of a generating unit.

e Simultaneous evacuation of San Onofre State Beach area and Camp Pendleton Marine Corps military personnel.

The evacuation of Camp Pendleton base dependents is assumed to have previously occurred at the Site Area Emergency level. Note that San Onofre State Beach area would normally be evacuated during Alert level.

Since the routing of vehicles evacuating SONGS would be determined in part by prevailing wind conditions, contingency plans allow for the evacuation of non-essential SONGS personnel either to northbound I-5 or southbound I-5, evacuation time estimates have been prepared for both scenarios.

Evacuation of all non-essential SONGS personnel and visitors beyond the EPZ boundary is estimated to be completed within 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> and 15 minutes and 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> and 45 minutes for the southbound and northbound evacuations, respectively.

10 4 U.S. Marine Coros Base. Camo Pendleton Camp Pendleton dependents would be evacuated at the Site Are Emergency which would likely occur before any instructions for a general evacuation (see Chapter 9). At the General Emergency level, evacuation of the Camp Pendleton military personnel remaining within the 2-mile sector is estimated to require approximately 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> and 15 minutes to evacuate for either of the two daytime conditions.

Evacuation would require approximately I hour and 45 minutes for the nighttime condition.

Evacuation of all persons within the south sector 5-mile area and the entire EPZ area would require approximately 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> and 5 hours5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br /> and 30 minutes, respectively, for any of the conditions.

In the evacuation plans prepared by Camp Pendleton Marine Corps Base, it is estimated that all persons could be relocated beyond the EPZ boundary within six hours.

10.5 Recommendations for Reducine Evacuation Times of General Public For each condition involving evacuation of the entire EPZ north sector, the analysis indicates that the evacuation routing plan is well balanced between 1-5 and Pacific Coast Highway.

OV 63

-_. - - -. - ~-. - - -. - - _ _ - _.

The imbalance in traffic loadings between the I-5 and Pacific Coast Highway evacuation routes is more j

significant for evacuations for only pan of the EPZ. The 5-and 10-mile evacuation scenarios do not include vehicles from Subsector 9 (Dana Point), which would use Pacific Coast Highway in an evacuation of the entire EPZ.

f in the evacuation of the 5-mile north sector area, Pacific Coast Highway clears of traffic within 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br />.

The evacuation time analysis reveals that the time to clear traffic on I-5 in all scenarios is controlled by

)

j several northbound I-5 on-ramps in the north portion of the EPZ. In the 10-mile evacuation scenario, traffic loadings on Pacific Coast Highway result in an approximate 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> lower evacuation time for this j

route relative to the I-5 evacuation routing.

a Evacuation times for the population within the 5-mile and 10-mile (north sector) could be reduced through j

more efficient use of available evacuation route capacity. The following sections identii'y potential revisions to the evacuation plan which would result in significant reductions in evacuation time requirements for the 5-mile and 10-mile areas. In each case, the revised evacuation plan was tested for all four scenarios to determine the " balanced" system time estimated (see Table 13).

i e

l 4

10.5.1 Recommendations for 5-Mile and 10-Mile Evacuation i

l Available evacuation route capacity could be more efficiently utilized by revising the evacuation plan in of the following manner:

• The utilization of available evacuation capacity on Pacific Coast Highway could be maximized by reassigning the area within Subsector 3, bounded by Avenida Palizada on the south and El Camino 8

Real on the east to evacuate via Pacific Coast Highway.

4 The implementation of this measures would reduce the time to evacuate the 10-mile populace by approximately 5-mile populace by I hour to I hour and 15 minutes.

l 10.6 Planned Roadway lmnrovement Imoacts on Evacuation Times of General Populace 4

k The extension of Antonio Parkway from Oso Parkway to Ortega Highway would increase the evacuation roadway capacity serving primarily the north sector 10-mile to EPZ populace. As such, no significant evacuation time reduction would be realized in the nonh sector 5-mile or 10-mile evacuation scenarios.

i For evacuation of the entire nonh sector EPZ, re-assignment of portions of Subsectors 7 and 8 to Antonio Parkway (via Ortega Highway) would reduce the Weekend, Weekday, and Nighttime evacuation time by approximately 45 minutes to 5 hours5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br /> and 30 minutes. Combined with the balanced evacuation routing on I-5 and PCH described above, the total reduction in evacuation time would be approximately I hour.

o Assuming the extension of Antonio Parkway is completed from Oso Parkway to Avenida Pico, additional evacuation capacity would also be available for the north sector 5-mile populace. In this scenario, s

64

l l

l l

I I

Weekend, Weekday, and Nighttime evacuation time would be reduced by approximately 30 minutes for the north sector 5-mile and 10-mile areas and by approximately I hour for the entire north sector EPZ.

l Combined with the balanced evacuation routing on I-5 and PCH, the total reduction in north sector evacuation time would be approximately I hour for the 5-mile area, 45 minutes for the 10-mile area, and I hour and 15 minutes for the entire EPZ. In these scenarios, a portion of Subsector 2 (adjacent to Avenida Pico would be re-directed eastward to Antonio Parkway along with portion of Subsectors 7 and 8.

O I

O 65

t Chapter 11 EARTHQUAKE EFFECTS ON EVACUATION TIME Earthquakes, flooding, or brush fires could potentially affect the major transportation routes to be used in an evacuation. The most serious or widespread impacts may result from an earthquake. Accordingly, the analysis also considered the effects that an earthquake could potentially have on the evacuation routes and evacuation times.

The analysis encompasses three tasks in addressing the issue of earthquake effects upon evacuation of the EPZ:

1. To identify areas (i.e., bridge structures and unstable bluffs) where a problem could potentially arise during a seismic event that would disrupt a primary transportation route:

2. To identify alternative routes which bypass the potential problem areas; and

3. To assess the impact of potential transportation route disruption on evacuation time estimates.

This analysis is intended to assist off-site authorities in the preparation of their radiological emergency response plans to provide contingency plans to address the potential disruptive effects of an eanhquake upon EPZ evacuation. Many of the findings presented herein would also assist in planning for other forms of evacuation route disruptions which could occur, such as fires, floods, mud slides, and flammable or toxic chemical spills.

The analysis presented in this section considers that an earthquake occurs prior to an emergency level condition being declared at SONGS. It should be noted that the analysis which follows also applies to the condition where a seismic event occurs after one of the emergency levels has been declared at SONGS, but prior to the evacuation notification.

11.1 Potential Imoairment alone Primary Transoortation Routes Y

Eanhquake-related damage to transport infrastructure could range from inconsequential localized damage to the potential blockage of one or more primary routes, depending upon the magnitude and location of the canhquake. The NRC has stated that for purposes of this evaluation, it should be assumed that SONGS experiences a seismic event equal to or less severe than the Safe Shutdown Earthquake (SSE),

which approximates a magnitude of 7 on the Richter Scale.

66

Considering past performance records of typical freeway bridge stmetures during earthquakes of this general magnitude, plus the efforts of the California Department of Transportation to further strengthen structures following the 1971 Sylmar earthquake, it is reasonable to assume that most bridges and overpasses would remain intact.

The purpose of this analysis, however, is not to forecast the extent of structure failure or blockage along primary transportation routes following an earthquake, but rather to identify the locations at which major problems could potentially occur along these routes and assess the potential impacts of these upon evacuation time.

Route blockage (s) can be the result of several types of structural or geological failures. Basically, there are two types of roadway impairments:

1. The roadway can be blocked by debris; i.e., a fallen overcrossing or a landslide; or

2. The roadway deck can collapse on the point of a bridge crossing over a surface street, railroad, or water course.

Locations where such problems could occur along the primary evacuation routes within the EPZ are indicated in Figures 9a and 9b. In addition to the above-mentioned roadway impairments, there is a potential for roadway pavement to fail under stresses caused by seismic activity.

These impairments could involve only one of the roadway directions or could effectively block the entire facility cross-section. Where only a partial blockage occurs on a surface arterial roadway, the traffic can be routed around the blockage (s) in the remaining lanes or use the shoulder area. Where only the outbound evacuation direction of the freeway is blocked, traffic can be rerouted onto the opposing lanes at the interchange (s) prior to blockage.

In the event of a complete blockage in both directions, there are various mitigative alternatives available.

i Under emergency conditions, response measures which require the least amount 'of time and manpower expenditures are essential. For this reason, alternative routings which bypass the point of blockage are generally the most practical and expeditious solutions for the majority of potential route disruptions. Time-consuming measures, such as the removal of major obstructions or roadway reconstruction should be considered only where a long lead time (a minimum of 16 to 24 hours2.777778e-4 days <br />0.00667 hours <br />3.968254e-5 weeks <br />9.132e-6 months <br />) is available prior to the initiation of evacuation.

The method of rerouting traffic around route impairments depends on the following factors:

e The configuration of the roadway in the area of damage; o The number oflocations where blockages have occurred and the location of these impairments with respect to each other; and 1

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EVACUATION ROUTE CLOSURES IN ORANGE COUNTY PORTION OF E.P.Z.

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e The availability of alternative routes parallel to the point or area of damage.

,.(J Standard traffic diversion procedures exist for blockages which occur at particular types of freeway j

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interchanges and for those which occur between freeway interchanges.

e DiamondInterchange - Structural failure of this type of interchange would not likely damage the on-and off-ramps. In this case, traffic could probably be diverted around the damaged travelway via the on-and off-ramps at the damaged interchange (s).' A portion of the traffic could also be diverted to parallel routes to reduce delay time in bypassing the problem area.

e Non-DiamondInterchange with Direct Off-Ramps - Failure of this type of freeway interchange would require traffic to exit the facility at or prior to the damaged interchange. Traffic would be diverted j

to parallel surface streets and routed back onto the freeway at the first available on-ramp beyond the blockage.

o Other Non-Diamond Interchanges, Overcrossings, Undercrossings, and Blockage between Interchanges -Blockages which occur at any of these locations would require traffic to be routed off of the freeway at an interchange prior to the blockage area. Traffic would be diverted to parallel surface streets and returned to the principal evacuation route past the point of blockage.

It is important to note that these procedures apply to individual route impairments and may have to be modified when considering multiple blockages, especially when they occur in succession along the same v

route. For a succession of blockages, other than diamond interchanges, traffic would generally be rerouted onto parallel routes, if available, for longer distances.

Summarized in Table 16 are bridge structures and potential slide areas along primary transportation routes. Indicated for each listing is the type of separated grade crossing and a brief description of the probable alternative route.

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68

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Table 16 POTENTIAL PROBLEM AREAS ON PRIMARY TRANSPORTATION ROUTES Location Type of Structure Alternative I-5/ ORANGE COUNTY:

Ave. Del Presidente/

Diamond Interchange Use Interchange ramps.

Cristianitos Road (overcrossing freeway)

Pedestrian Bridge /

Overcrossing (no access)

Exit Freeway at Ave. Del Presidente/

Ave. San Dimas Cristianitos Rd. Use S. El Camino Real First to I-5 on-ramp.

Ave. San Luis Rey Overcrossing (no access)

Same as above.

Ave. Mendocino Overcrossing (no access)

Same as above.

El Camino Real Diamond Interchange Use Interchange ramy.

(undercrossing)

Ave. Presidio Partial Diamond Interchange Use Interchange ramps.

(undercrossing)

Ave. Palizada Partial Diamond Interchange Exit freeway at Ave. Presidio and (undercrossing) use Ave. La Esperanza to on-ramp at Ave.

Palizada Interchange.

69

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Table 16 (cont.)

Iacation Type of Structure Alternative Ave. Pico Diamond Interchange Use Interchange ramps.

(undercrossing)

New Development Undercrossing (no access)

Exit freeway at Ave. Pico and use (no official name)

Calle Frontera to Calle Vallarta to Ave. Vaquero to Camino De Los Mares on-ramp.

I Ave. Vaquero Undercrossing (no access)

Same as above.

Camino De Estrella/

Diamond laterchange Use Interchange ramps.

Camino De Los Mares (overcrossing)

Via California Overcrossing (no access)

Exit freeway at Camino De Los Mares and use Camino El Molino to Via California to Camino De Las Ramblas on-ramp.

Camino De Las Ramblas Partial Clover Leaf Use Interchange ramps.

l (undercrossing)

Camino Capistrano on-ramp Undercrossing Exit freeway at Camino Las Ramblas and use Doheny Park Rd. to Camino Capistrano to San i

Juan Creek Rd. to Valle Rd. on-ramp.

i l

I San Juan Creek Road Undercrossing (no access)

Exit freeway at Camino Las Ramblas and use l

Doheny Park Rd. to Camino Capistrano to Camino Capistrano to Ortega Ilighway on-ramp.

70

T s

Table 16 (cont.)

Wion Type of Structure Alternative San Juan Creek Undercrossing Same as above.

t IIorno Creek (south crossing)

Undercrossing Use Interchange ramps, if available, or exit freeway at Camino Las Ramblas and use.

i Doheny Park Rd. to Camino Capistrano to Ortega liighway on-ramp.

j Ortega liighway Diamond Interchange Use Interchange ramps.

(overcrossing) llorno Creek (north crossing)

Undercrossing Exit freeway at Ortega flighway and use Camino Capistrano or Rancho Viejo Rd. to Junipero Serra on-ramp.

El llorno Street Undercrossing Same as above.

Junipero Serra Road Diamond Interchange Use Interchange ramps.

(undercrossing) i Trabuco Creek Undercrossing Exit freeway at Junipero Serra Rd. and use

[

Rancho Viejo Rd. to Avery Parkway on-ramp.

j San Joaquin Transportation Corridor Overcrossing Exit freeway at Junipero Serra Rd. and use Rancho

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Viejo Rd. to Avery Parkway on-ramp.

Avery Parkway Diamond Interchange Use Interchange ramps.

l (undercrossing) 71 I

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O Table 16 (cont.)

I Location Type of Structure Alternative Crown Valley Parkway Partial Diamond Interchange Exit Freeway at Crown Valley Parkway and (overcrossing)

Marguerite Parkway to Oso Parkway on-ramp.

PACIFIC COAST HWY / ORANGE COUNTY:

1 Ave. Estacion to Camino Unstable bluff area Use Ave. Pico to I-5 Camino La.s Ramblas l

Capistrano to Pacific Coast liighway.

Camino Capistrano to Unstab;e bluff area Use Camino Capistrano to Doheny Park Palisades Drive Rd. to Camino Las Ramblas to Pacific Coast liighway.

AT&SF Railroad Bridge Overcrossing Use Doheny Park Rd. to Camino Las Ramblas to Pacific Coast liighway.

San Juan Creek Undercrossing Same as above.

I CAMINO CAPISTRANO/ ORANGE COUNTY:

Camino Las Ramblas Overcrossing Use Via California to Camino Las Ramblas/I-5 on-ramp.

i San Juan Creek Undercrossing Use San Juan Creek Rd. to Valle Rd./l-5 on-ramp.

f Trabuco Creek Undercrossing Use Junipero Serra Rd. to I-5 on-ramp.

l 72 L

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Table 16 (cont.)

Location.

Type of Structure Alternative RANCHO VIEJO ROAD / ORANGE COUNTY:

Trabuco Creek Undercrossing Use Junipero Serra Rd11-5 on-ramp.

I-5/ SAN DIEGO COUNTY:

San Mateo Creek Undercrossing Use I-5 Southbound.

Basilone Road Diamond Interchange Use Interchange ramps.

(overcrossing) i Old Highway 101 Undercrossing Use I-5 Northbound lanes.

Las Pulgas Road Diamond Interchange Use Interchange ramps.

(overcrossing)

OLD IIIGHWAY 101:

I-5 (near Las Pulgas Interchange)

Overpass Use Basilone Road on-ramp to Northbound I-5.

I i

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73 i

i

11.2 Public Resoonse Considerations i

As discussed in Chapter 8, public response begins at the time ofinitial evacuation notification. In the event of an earthquake preceding a radiological emergency, it is possible that the seismic activity would disable the siren warning system. This is not considered a serious problem, however, since notification and I

instruction would still be available through the various " Emergency Alert" media. It is very likely that the i

populace would be monitoring their radios for news regarding the earthquake, thus largely negating the need J

for a siren warning to alert the populace to listen to the " Emergency Alert" media.

l Since consideration of an evacuation due to an accident several days or weeks following an earthquake would reflect the fact that there would be sufficient time to rectify earthquake-caused damage, and thus largely remove the effects of such damage upon evacuation, this analy.is assumes that the evacuation is initiated within hours of a major earthquake which has created blockage at several locations along the primary evacuation routes and before such blockages can be repaired.

l 4

This analysis also assumes that:

• Although some vehicles may be damaged, sufficient vehicles would be operable to evacuate the normal l

automobile-owning population. It is estimated that there are at least 72,000 privately-owned vehicles servmg approximately 45,000 households within the EPZ boundary north sector (1.6 vehicles per

]

household); and l

e Mobilization of the populace would occur at the following rate:

Percent of Households Leavinn Home Time after Notification Incremental Cumulative 0 - 30 Minutes 4

4 30 - 60 Minutes 33 37 60 - 90 Minutes 60 97 90 - 120 Minutes 3

100 h

This is the same distribution as for evacuation without an earthquake, since many of the public response time factors, such as assembly of the family unit, will likely have already occurred. The response time assumption is not critical to the evacuation time estimate in most cases where there is a maior disruptive l

effect on a primary evacuation route, since extensive time may be spent in the traffic queues prior to the point of traffic constraint (i.e., a faster mobilization may result in a longer travel time, with no change in total evacuation time).

i 74

-~ ~

11.3 Evacuation Time Analysis Cases b

It is impractical to evaluate all combinations of transportation route disruptions which could occur as a result of an earthquake. For the purpose of this analysis, which is to assess the impact of various degrees and locations of damage on evacuation times, a series of four " representative" blockage conditions were identified for evaluation.

Generally, earthquake blockages of the principal evacuation route (Interstate 5) can be grouped into two types of impairments, with the various potential combination of blockages within each of the two groups requiring similar traffic diversions. These are:

1.

Thefailure of one or more diamond-type interchange bridges - This typc of blockage is considered as a separate case since evacuation traffic would generally be able to use the " diamond" on-and off-ramps to bypass the damaged bridge structure.

2.

The failure of roadway sections on one or more structures other than those in diamond-type interchanges - This would encompass non-diamond interchange bridge failures; failure of bridge overcrossings or undercrossings of streams, railroads, and streets; or the loss of a short section of roadway by vertical or horizontal displacement.

For each of these two cases, a series of bridge failures was identified which would have the maximum v

adverse impact upon evacuation time, short of total blockage of all parallel area roadways. The " test case" blockages were located in the northern porton of the EPZ to affect the largest number of evacuation vehicles.

A third case was selected for evaluation which would reflect conditions where route impairments occurred in a very localized area and severely limited both primary evacuation routes (Interstate 5 and Pacific Coast Highway).

The fourth analysis condition was chosen to evaluate the evacuation time for a southerly evacuation of the north sector. This case would apply to major problems which might occur at, or north of, the 10-mile radius and which may result in the consideration of a southward evacuation past the SONGS facility. Examples of this condition could include:

• The collapse of all or most bridges across San Juan Creek;

• Severe damage to structures along both I 5 and Pacific Coast Highway north of the EPZ; e Unavailability of the reception centers in northern Orange County either through damage to these reception centers or the full use of these facilities by northern Orange County residents should the earthquake severely affect that area of the County.

75

i g

LThe specific roadway blockages for the estimating of evacuation times are discussed in detail in the following

(

paragraphs, 11.3.1 Loss of Diamond-Tvoe Interchanne(s)

In this case, it is assumed that within the EPZ, both Junipero Serra Road /I-5 and Avery Parkway /I-5 interchange structures have collapsed. It is also assumed that Crown Valley Parkway interchange, beyond the EPZ boundary, has failed. These selected locations for route disruptions represent the "most critical case" for diamond interchange failures for the reason that the maximum number of evacuation vehicles would

'be impacted by the impairments. (See Figure 10.)

11.3.2 Loss of Non-Diamond Interchance Structure (s)

- This case involves the loss of overpass structures on I-5 at Horno Creek and at Camino Capistrano to northbound I 5 on-ramp. In this case, all vehicles assigned to I-5 would be re-routed onto'Camino Capistrano. North of Ortega Highway, both Camino Capistrano and Rancho Viejo Road could be used by evacuation vehicles. Again, this combination of non-diamond iwrchange failures represents the most critical case other than loss of all major evacuation routes. (See Figure 11.)

11.3.3 Loss of Maior Routes in Northern San Clemente For this scenario, two consecutive interchanges art, assumed to be damaged on I-5, including those at Avenida Palizada and Avenida Pico. In addition, s third structure, an overpass immediately north of Avenida Pico on I-5, is also assumed to be damaged. Finally, Pacific Coast Highway /El Camino Real is assumed to be blocked by a landslide between Avenida Estacion and Camino Capistrano. All traffic normally evacuating to the north on I-5 and Pacific Coast Highway would be limited to the only remaining route, Calle Frontera, a two-lane facility east of I-5. (See Figure 12.)

11.3.4 Severe Disruption of Primary Evacuation Routes to the North j

i For the purpose of the evacuation time assessment in this case, it is assumed that I-5 is blocked by a fallen overpass at Camino Las Ramblas, and Pacific Coast Highway is blocked by fallen structures at Doheny Park Road /Camino Las Iamblas and San Juan Creek. In this scenario, the zero to 5-mile area (south of Avenida Pico) is assumed to evacuate to the south on I-5, and the population between Avenida Pico and Camino Las Ramblas would be instructed to take shelter. (See Figure 13.)

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l 11.4 Evacuation Time Assessment Program t

j l

The procedures followed in the assessment of evacuation times for the selected earthquake scenarios were l

essentially the same as those presented in Chapter '2 under " Evacuation Time Assessment Program."' The basic input data to the evacuation time assessment program are presented in the following sections.

1 J

\\

11.4.1 Analysis Area i

The analysis of the first three cases assumes evacuation of the populace within the north sector EPZ l

j (Subsectors 1-11). In the fourth case, where evacuation of the 5-mile north sector was considered, populations in Subsectors 1,2, 3, and 11 were assumed to evacuate.

11,4.2 Vehicle Demand All four earthquake / evacuation analysis cases assume peak population daytime summer weekend conditions, as described in Table 3.

i l

i 11.4.3 Evacuation Roadway Network l

l Link characteristics (i.e., capabili*y, average speed) were not modified except in the vicinity of the evacuation route impairments. Alterations were made to the evacuation route network to reflect the loss of routes as identified for each scenario. Links were added to the network, where required, to represent secondary evacuation routes. Evacuation route descriptions were modified for each centroid, as the individual scenarios dictated. Secondary evacuation routes were assigned under the constraint that population from the subsectors normally assigned to I-5 would resume evacuation via I-5 once the route impairment has i

been bypassed, i

l 1

1 11.5 Impact or' Evacuation Time 1

(

Evacuation time assessment program results for the four representative earthquake scenarios were compared to non-earthquake summer weekend conditions to determine the general impacts on evacuation time. Table 17 summarizes the results of the evacuation time assessment. Three time estimates were given for each of

)

the first three cases. The first estimate represents the time to evacuate the 5-mile north sector beyond the l

EPZ boundary, independent of the 5-mile to EPZ boundary area. The second estimate represents the time j

to evacuate the 10-mile north sector beyond the EPZ boundary assuming simultaneous evacuation of the inner 5-mile area. The third estimate represents the time to evacuate the entire north sector EPZ. All time O

estimstes include evacuation beyond the EPZ boundary; because, in most cases, the evacuation route j

impairments were located between the 10-mile and EPZ area boundaries.

i 77

11.5.1 Loss of Diamond Interchances

(\\

)

. 'j Evacuation of the EPZ north sector is estimated to take 30 hours3.472222e-4 days <br />0.00833 hours <br />4.960317e-5 weeks <br />1.1415e-5 months <br /> and 30 minutes for traffic exitmg via I-5.

Vehicles using I-5 finish entering the freeway approximately 16 hours1.851852e-4 days <br />0.00444 hours <br />2.645503e-5 weeks <br />6.088e-6 months <br /> after the evacuation notification.

From this time, it would take approximately 14 hours1.62037e-4 days <br />0.00389 hours <br />2.314815e-5 weeks <br />5.327e-6 months <br /> to clear the queues of vehicles on I-5 south of Junipero Serra interchange. The off-ramp at this interchange with assumed damage would be the capacity-limiting factor in the evacuation. Exiting vehicles at this point would be metered at a rate of approximately 1,200 per hour.

Subsectors 3, 5, and 9, which evacuate via Pacific Coast Highway, are unaffected by the impairments on I-5 and would complete the evacuation in approximately 6 hours6.944444e-5 days <br />0.00167 hours <br />9.920635e-6 weeks <br />2.283e-6 months <br />. Rancho Viejo Road and Marguerite Parkway are also unaffected and would be clear of traffic 6 hours6.944444e-5 days <br />0.00167 hours <br />9.920635e-6 weeks <br />2.283e-6 months <br /> and 15 minutes into the evacuation.

A possible method of reducing evacuation time in this type of situation would be to divert traffic from I-5 to both Pacific Coast Highway and Rancho Viejo Road. This could be accomplished by diverting traffic already on I-5 to Pacific Coast Highway, either via the Camino Las Ramblas interchange or by rerouting traffic from portions of Subsector I up to Pacific Coast Highway and then to I-5.

Similarly, traffic on I-5 could also be diverted to Rancho Viejo Road via the Ortega Highway interchange.

q The resulting " balanced" evacuation route loading would reduce the estimated north sector EPZ evacuation

,()

time to between 12 and 13 hours1.50463e-4 days <br />0.00361 hours <br />2.149471e-5 weeks <br />4.9465e-6 months <br />.

Estimated evacuation times for the 5-mile and 10-mile north sector areas with and without diversion to Pacific Coast Highway and Rancho Viejo Road are presented in Table 17.

I1.5.2 Loss of Non-Diamond Interchances In the second case, loss of I-5 immediately north of Camino Las Ramblas requires the diversion of freeway traffic to Camino Capistrano. Under these conditions, evacuation of the area within the EPZ boundary would require approximately 33 hours3.819444e-4 days <br />0.00917 hours <br />5.456349e-5 weeks <br />1.25565e-5 months <br /> and 45 minutes.

As in the first case, vehicles would begin to form queues on the freeway, south of Camino Las Ramblas, approximately one hour after the evacuation begins. Camino Capistrano. the bypass route, has a one-lane evacuation capacity of approximately 1,000 vehicles per hour. It is this capacity which would control the rate of evacuation for the north sector EPZ.

The evacuation time estimates for the 5-mile and 10-mile north sector areas with and without diversion to Pacific Coast Highway are summarized in Table 17.

m 78~

O v

u.

Table 17 EVACUATION TIME ASSESSMENT

SUMMARY

FOR POTENTIAL EARTIIQUAKE EFFECTS ON MAJOR ROUTES Estimated Time To Evacuate Area (a)

Condition (b) 0-5 Miles 0-10 Miles 0-EPZ Boundary Reference Evacuation Without Earthquake Effects 5 hours5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br /> 5 hours 30 minutes 6 hours6.944444e-5 days <br />0.00167 hours <br />9.920635e-6 weeks <br />2.283e-6 months <br /> 15 minutes

1. Loss of Diamond Interchanges Using Assigned Evacuation Routes (c) 10 hours1.157407e-4 days <br />0.00278 hours <br />1.653439e-5 weeks <br />3.805e-6 months <br /> 30 minutes 24 hours2.777778e-4 days <br />0.00667 hours <br />3.968254e-5 weeks <br />9.132e-6 months <br /> 15 minutes 30 hours3.472222e-4 days <br />0.00833 hours <br />4.960317e-5 weeks <br />1.1415e-5 months <br /> 30 minutes With Diversion to Pacific coast Hwy. (d) 6 hours6.944444e-5 days <br />0.00167 hours <br />9.920635e-6 weeks <br />2.283e-6 months <br /> 11 hours 45 minutes 16 hours1.851852e-4 days <br />0.00444 hours <br />2.645503e-5 weeks <br />6.088e-6 months <br /> 30 minutes

2. Loss of Non-Diamond Interchanges Using Assigned Evacuation Routes (c) 11 hours1.273148e-4 days <br />0.00306 hours <br />1.818783e-5 weeks <br />4.1855e-6 months <br /> 30 minutes 26 hours3.009259e-4 days <br />0.00722 hours <br />4.298942e-5 weeks <br />9.893e-6 months <br /> 33 hours 45 minutes With Diversion to Pacific coast Hwy. (d) 7 hours8.101852e-5 days <br />0.00194 hours <br />1.157407e-5 weeks <br />2.6635e-6 months <br /> 45 minutes 14 hours1.62037e-4 days <br />0.00389 hours <br />2.314815e-5 weeks <br />5.327e-6 months <br /> 15 minutes 18 hours2.083333e-4 days <br />0.005 hours <br />2.97619e-5 weeks <br />6.849e-6 months <br /> 45 minutes

3. Loss of Major Routes in North San Clemente, Evacuation to the North 27 hours3.125e-4 days <br />0.0075 hours <br />4.464286e-5 weeks <br />1.02735e-5 months <br /> 30 minutes 32 hours3.703704e-4 days <br />0.00889 hours <br />5.291005e-5 weeks <br />1.2176e-5 months <br /> 30 minutes 32 hours3.703704e-4 days <br />0.00889 hours <br />5.291005e-5 weeks <br />1.2176e-5 months <br /> 30 minutes

4. Loss of Major Routes to the North, Evacuation to the South 9 hours1.041667e-4 days <br />0.0025 hours <br />1.488095e-5 weeks <br />3.4245e-6 months <br /> Not Considered Not Considered (a) Includes evacuation of year 2002 population within Orange County Subsectors and State Beach areas.

(b) Assumes Daytime Summer Weekend Conditions.

(c) Based upon all traffic normally assigned to I-5 continuing north in I-5 Corridor, despite impairments.

(d) Reflects a sufficient part of traffic assigned to I-5 being diverted to Pacific Coast Ilighway and Rancho Viejo Road / Marguerite Parkway (Scenario 1 only) to fully use the capacity of sit routes.

Wilbur Smith Associates 79

J 11.5.3 Loss of Maior Routes in North San Clemente U

In this scenario, the evacuation route for all of the population between SONGS and Avenida Pico is limited to Calle Frontera, a two-lane street which parallels I-5 to the east. It is estimated that evacuation of the population within this area would take approximately 32 hours3.703704e-4 days <br />0.00889 hours <br />5.291005e-5 weeks <br />1.2176e-5 months <br /> and 30 minutes to complete under these conditions. The remaining ponion of the north sector EPZ would not be significantly affected by the j

damaged freeway sections and would clear the EPZ boundary in less than 6 hours6.944444e-5 days <br />0.00167 hours <br />9.920635e-6 weeks <br />2.283e-6 months <br />, j

Under the constraints of this case, the only mitigative measure would be to evacuate the population south of Avenida Pico towards the south on I-5. The evacuation time implications of this alternative area are discussed in the next analysis condition.

I1.5.4 Loss of Northern Evacuation Routes Under specific conditions chosen to represent the general scenario of evacuating to the south, the 5-mile sector population would complete the evacuation beyond the southern EPZ boundary in San Diego County within approximately 9 hours1.041667e-4 days <br />0.0025 hours <br />1.488095e-5 weeks <br />3.4245e-6 months <br />. This evacuation time estimate reflects the simultaneous evacuation of the resident and transient populations from the 2-mile sector and the north 5-mile radius (Subsectors 1,2, and j

3).

1 Extensive, pre-positioned traffic controls would have to be utilized for a southward evacuation, since the evacuation routing would be in the opposite direction from that anticipated by the area population.

I1.6 Conclusjnns i

in summary, the analysis reveals that under severe evacuation route disruptions, evacuation of the north sector EPZ would require up to an estimated 30- to 34-hour period. It is evident in the first three cases that a great pertion of the evacuation time would be spent waiting in traffic queues. Upon these conditions, consideration should be given to evacuating the populace incrementally, thereby reducing the delay time on j

the roadway.

1 V

80

O 4

Appendix A f

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5 4

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i Evacuation Time Assessment 4

Program Methodology l

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Appendix A

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Evacuation Time Assessment Program Methodology The evacuation time assessment was performed in two separate packages of computer programs. The general flow of these packages is illustrated in Figure A-1.

Build Evacuation Network This portion of the program is accomplished utilizing the link / node descriptions from Evacuation Route development task. The computer program, utilizing well-established principles, was extracted from an in-house program, TRANSIT, which was basically created for transit route development. It organizes the input data and assembles link data such as distance, speed, hourly capacity, and queuing capacity.

4 Assienment of Vehicles to Each Centroid s

Using centroid population and car occupancy input, the user computes vehicle volumes to be evacuated and assigns these volumes to each centroid. Remaining steps are also computed in the evacuation time assessment routine.

Public Response Time Distributions Since the predicted volume of vehicles entering the network from each centroid is a function of various public response times to the evacuation warning, it is necessar/ to establish quantification of these responses by certain assumed conditions. Three public response time distributions were combined to assess evacuation times under the four scenarios-stucner weekday, nighttime, peak summer weekend, and advec,e weather conditions.

Determination of Mobilization Time Mobilization time is defined as that period between the issuance of the evacuation warning and the time taken for the last vehicle to leave any centroid under the specified scenario conditions.

• O A-1 l

1 l

Time Distribution of Traffic Volunes on the Evacuation Network The traffic volumes previously assigned to each centroid are then distributed onto the network incrementally,

. as determined by the combined public response distributions.

Caoacity Delav Analysis i

j The capacity delay analysis is performed in the assessment program by the four time increments determined i

in the above step. It is based upon the rudimentary principle of queuing-which is, if the input to a network element during a specified time period exceeds the service capacity of that element, a queue of input vehicles is formed and a delay is experienced by those vehicles in the queue. These vehicles must be added to the input of the next interval and compared to the service capacity to determine if another queue is formed at j

the end of that interval. The process is continued until all vehicles to be serviced have passed through the element.

i For example, consider the processing of a sequence of intervals where the input of the second and third intervals exceeds capacity. After a first interval, when input is less than capacity, all vehicles are served j

with no delay, and no queue is formed (Q1 =0). However, when input during the second interval exceeds i

the capacity, a queue of vehicles, Q2, results. This volume is therefore added to the input of the third interval, which then again exceeds capacity. At the end of this period, a queue of Q3 vehicles remains.

O These vehicles are added to the input of vehicles during the fourth interval. Because that volume exceeds capacity, a number of vehicles, Q4, remains at the end of that period. This queue must then be dissipated L

at a rate equivalent to the link's capacity. A delay of TD is required for this discharge and must be added I

to the four time increments to obtain the total time for the entire volume to pass through the link.

It is important to note that this process has " metered" the input to equal the link capacity. As the traffic proceeds to the next link of the evacuation route, its input is at the rate commensurate with the previous link's capacity, if no additional volume has been assigned to the subsequent link and that link has the same j

capacity as the upstream link, no additional delay is experienced.

j If either the capacity or volume of the downstream link is different, the analysis procedure must be repeated using the respective input volumes and capacity of that link.

l 4

l Determination of Delav Times for heh Link l

The evacuation routes for each centroid are analyzed using the delay analysis technique described above.

The delays, if any, are assigned to each of the links. Previous delays for any link resulting from the analysis of another centroid for the same link are compared in the program. Appropriate adjustments to each link delay are made by the program and the proper delay assigned.

i l-A-2 l

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O O

O EVACUATION AVERAGE

LENGTH, CENTHOO RESPONSE 1WE RESPONSETBaE RESPONSETBAE gg g

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($Nu BASIC FLOW DIAGRAM rausas wrre e*unho TOTALEVACllATIollTIME Evacuellen Time Assessment Update

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s Determination of Link Travel Times i

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Travel times for each link are computed by the assessment program using the link distance and the anticipated link operating speed input. These travel times assume no capacity delays. Therefore, when the travel time for a link is added to the proper delay time, the actual speed for the link is represented.

l i

l O

A-3

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Appendix B 4

a l

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.l J

e EPZ Subsectors i

e 1

4 i

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1 t

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l Subsector 1

O A. Description Subsector 1 includes all residential, commercial, and recreational (San Clemente State Beach) areas west of 1-5, south of Trafalgar Lane and north of the Orange County / San Diego County boundary.

B. Recention Center As designated in Offsite Emergency Response Plans.

d C. Evacuation Procedure The population within Subsector 1 shall evacuate to the north on I-5 or State Route 73 via I-5.

- Vehicles from the area south of San Clemente State Beach should use Avenida Del Presidente to the Cristianitos Road /I-5 interchange at the southern City limit.

- The population south of West Avenida de los Lobos Marinos up to and including San Clemente State Beach should enter the freeway at the Magdalena on-ramp via the Avenida Mendocino overpass.

- The area within Subsector 1, north of West Avenida San Antonio, should use the South El Camino Real northbound I-5 on-ramp.

Upon entering I-5, the population from Subsector 1 traffic should continue northbound on I-5.

Evacuation traffic will be directed to the reception center location.

D. IDstitutions Reauirine Special Evacuation Consideration 1.

Concordia Elementary School,3120 Avenida del Presidente.

B-1

1

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l l

Subsector 2 (M

O i

A. Description Subsector 2 includes all residential, commercial, and recreational areas east of I-5, north of the Orange County / San Diego County line and south of Avenida Pico.

B. Reception Center As designated in Offsite Emergency Response Plans.

4 C. Erscuation Procedure The population within Subsector 2 shall evacuate to the north on I-5 or State Route 73 via I-5.

All evacuation traffic from the southern portion of Subsector 2 should enter I-5 via South El Camino l

Real northbound on-ramp.

All traffic exiting the central portion of Subsector 2 should enter I-5 via Avenida Presidio or

(

Avenida Palizada interchange.

All traffic exiting the northern portion of Subsector 2 should enter I-5 via Avenida Pico interchange.

- Once northbound on I-5, Subsector 2 traffic should continue northbound on I-5. Evacuation traffic will be directed to the reception center location.

D. Institutions Reauirine Special Evacuation Consideration 1.

Our Saviors Lutheran Elementary and Pre-School,200 Avenida San Pablo.

2.

Our Lady of Fatima School,105 South La Esperanza.

3. Ole llanson Elementary School,189 Avenida La Cuesta.

4.

San Clemente High School,700 Avenida Pico.

5.

Clarence Lobo Elementary School,200 Avenida Vista Montana.

6.

San Clemente Civic Center,100 Avenida Presidio.

7.

Wycliffe Casa de Seniors,105 Avenida Presidio.

4 j

\\J B-2

I i

Subsector 3 q

i

. D A. Descriotion Subsector 3 includes all residential, commercial, and recreational areas west of I-5, north of Trafalgar Canyon and south of Avenida Pico. The northern boundary lies immediately north of Avenida Pico and from I-5 to North El Camino Real/ Pacific Coast Highway. At this point, the boundary assumes the alignment of Pacific Coast liighway, to just north of Camino Capistrano.

B. Reception Center 4

As designated in Offsite Emergency Response Plans.

C. Evacuation Procedure z

The population within Subsector 3 shall evacuate to the north on I-5 or State Route 73 via I-5.

-- Traffic exiting the portion of Subsector 3 south of West Marquita should access northbound I-5 via the Avenida Presidio or Avenida Palizada interchange to enter I-5.

Traffic exiting the northeastern portion of Subsector 3 bounded by Avenida Pico, I-5, and North El Camino Real should enter I-5 via the Avenida Palizada or Avenida Pico interchange.

- Traffic exiting the portion of Subsector 3 north of West Marquita and west of North El Camino Real shall evacuate the immediate area to the north on Pacific Coast Highway and then enter I-5 via Doheny Park Road /Camino Capistrano.

4

- Once northbound on I-5, Subsector 3 traffic should continue northbound on I-5. Evacuation traffic will be directed to the reception center location.

D. Institutions Reauirine Special Evacuation Consideration 1.

Cornerstone Christian Pre-School,702 N. De La Estrella.

2.

Las Palmas Elementary School,1101 Calle Puente.

3.

San Clemente Pre-School,163 Avenida Victoria.

4.

San Clemente Presbyterian Pre-School,119 Avenida de la Estrella.

5.

Serra Parent Participation Pre-School,1005 Calle Puente.

6.

St. Michael's Academy and Children's Center,107 W. Marquita.

7.

Stepping Stone Pre-School,130 Avenida Granada.

8.

Ilorizon liigh School,1402 N. El Camino Real.

B-3

. =. -

l l

Subsector 4 O'

v A. Description Subsector 4 includes all residential, commercial, and recreational areas north of Avenida Pico, east of Pacific Coast Highway, and south of the San Clemente City limits. Subsector 4 does not include the Palm Beach Mobile Home Park, which lies northeast of Pacific Coast Highway between Camino San Clemente and Camino Capistrano.

B. Reception Centet As designated in Offsite Emergency Response Plans.

C. Evacuation Procedure The population within Subsector 4 shall evacuate to the north on 15 or State Route 73 via 1-5.

Evacuation traffic from Subsector 4 should enter I 5 via either Camino de Estrella/Camino de los Mares interchange, or Camino las Ramblas interchange. The populations from neighborhoods south of Estrella Country Club should approach I-5 via Camino de los Mares. Once northbound on I-5, Subsector 4 v

traffic should continue northbound on I-5. Evacuation traffic will be directed to the reception center location.

D. Institutions Reauirine Special Evacuation Consideration 1.

Shorecliffs Junior Middle School,240 Via Socorro.

2.

Truman Benedict Elementary School,1251 Sarmentoso.

3.

La Christianita Pre-School,35522 Camino Capistrano.

4.

Top of the Hill Mother's Day Out,2001 Calle Frontera.

5 Early Explorations,2015 Calle Frontera.

6.

Columbia San Clemente Hospital 654 Camino de los Mares.

7.

Anita's Board and Care, 2703 Via Bandita.

8.

Heaven Can Wait,1319 Calle Emilia.

9.

Capistrano Nursing Center,35410 Del Ray.

O V

B-4

l l

t Subsector 5 e

O A. Description Subsector 5 includes the Capistrano Beach residential, commercial, and recreational areas of Dana Point which lie west of Pacific Coast Highway, nonh of the San Clemente City limit and south of Doheny State Beach Park (inclusive).

B. Reception Center i

As designated in Offsite Emergency Response Plans.

C. Evacuation Procedure Traffic exiting the portion of Subsector 5 west of San Juan Creek shall evacuate to the nonh on Pacific Coast Highway. Evacuating vehicles should proceed nonhbound on Pacific Coast Highway. Evacuation traffic will be directed to the assigned reception center.

(]

Traffic exiting the portion of Subsector 5 east of San Juan Creek shall evacuate to the nonh on Doheny

(./

Park Road /Camino Capistrano to access I-5 via Camino Capistrano/Stonehill on-ramp or Valle Road /La Novia on-ramp. Traffic should proceed northbound on I-5. Evacuation traffic will be directed to the assigned reception center.

State Route 73 can be taken from the I-5 (north of Junipero Serra Road) and used as an alternate route.

Evacuation traffic will be directed to the reception center.

D. Institutions Reauirine Special Evacuation Consideration None.

B-5

l l

Subsector 6 O(

A. Description Subsector 6 includes the Dana Point areas north and west of the San Clemente City limit, east of Pacific Coast Highway, and south of San Juan Creek and the San Juan Capistrano City limit.

B. Reception Center As designated in Offsite Emergency Response Plans C. Evacuation Procedure l

The population within Subsector 6 shall evacuate to the north on I-5 or State Route 73 via I-5.

1 The Subsector 6 population west of I-5 and south of Villa California Canyon should enter I-5 at the Camino Las Ramblas northbound on-ramp.

j O

- Traffic exiting the Subsector 6 area west of I-5 and north of Villa California Canyon should evacuate to the north on 1-5 via the Camino Capistrano/Stonehill on-ramp.

- Subsector 6 populations east of I-5 should enter I-5 via Camino las Ramblas interchange.

- Traffic should proceed northbound on I-5.

Evacuation traffic will be directed to the assigned reception center.

State Route 73 can be taken from the I-5 (north of Junipero Serra Road) and used as an alternate route. Evacuation traffic will be directed to the assigned reception center.

D. Institutions Reauirine Special Evacuation Consideration 1.

Dana Point Christian,25975 Domingo Ave.

2.

Treasure Isle Children's Center I, 34240 Camino Capistrano.

3. Treasure Isle Children's Center II, 26153 Victoria.

4.

Palisades Elementary School,26462 Via Sacramento.

5.

Palisades United Methodist Pre-School,27002 Camino De Estrella.

6.

Faith Lutheran Pre-School 34381 Calle Portola.

-.q Capistrano Beach Nursing Center,35410 Del Rey.

7.

3

\\)

B-6

Subsector 7 iv A. Description l

Subsector 7 includes the residential, commercial, and recreational areas within San Juan Capistrano which lie east and south of San Juan Creek.

B. Reception Center 4

As designated in Offsite Emergency Response Plans.

C. Evacuation Procedure The population within Subsector 7 should evacuate to the north on I-5. Evacuating vehicles should enter I-5 via northbound on-ramps at Camino Los Ramblas, Valle Road, or Avery Parkway interchanges.

Evacuation traffic should proceed northbound on I-5 to the designated reception center.

D. Institutions Reauirine Special Evacuation Consideration l.

Harold J. Ambuchl Elementary School,28001 San Nan Creek Road.

2.

St. Margaret's School,31641 La Novia Avenue.

3.

Villa Del Obispo (Retirement Home), 32200 Del Obispo Avenue.

4.

Chateau San Juan (Retirement Home), 32353 San Juan Creek Road.

i

)

B-7

I Subsector 8 O

A. Description Subsector 8 includes use residential, commercial, and recreational areas within San Juan Capistrano which lie west and north of San Juan Creek.

B. Reception Center As designated in Offsite Emergency Response Plans.

C. Evacuation Procedure The population within Subsector 8 should evacuate to the north on I-5. Evacuating vehicles west ofI-5 should exit the City onto the I-5 via Ortega Highway interchange or via Camino Capistrano the Junipero Serra interchange. Vehicles east ofI-5 should travel north on Rancho Viejo Road and enter I-5 at either Avery Parkway or Oso Parkway interchanges. Evacuation traffic should proceed northbound on I-5 to the designated reception center.

O D. Institutions Reauirinn Special Evacuation Consideration 1.

San Juan Elementary School,26891 Spring Street.

2.

Serra Continuation High School. 31431 El Camino Real.

3.

Fresh Start,31431 El Camino Real.

4.

Marco Forester Middle School,25601 Camino Del Avion.

l 5.

Del Obispo Elementary School,25601 Camino Del Avion.

6.

Community Home Education Program, 31736 Rancho Viejo Road.

7.

Horizon High School,31738 Rancho Viejo Road.

8.

Capistrano Valley Christian School and Pre-School,32032 Del Obispo.

9.

Capistrano Valley Head Start,32502 Paseo Adelanto a

10. Stoneybrooke Christian School 26300 Via Escolar.

11. The Wonder Years,31113 Rancho Viejo Road.

12. Community Presbyterian Pre-School, 32202 Del Obispo.

13. Capistrano-Laguna ROP, 31522 El Camino Real.

14. Dana Pre-School 32143 Alipaz Street.

15. Mission School,31641 El Camino Real.

16. Sylvan Leaming Center,32301 Camino Capistrano.

17. Seasons Retirement Home, San Juan Capistrano.

(

18. Sunset Home I, San Juan Capistrano.

B-8

Subsector 9

'lv A. Description Subsector 9 includes the residential, commercial, and recreational areas of Dana Point which lie:

within the central downtown area south of Selva Road (from Pacific Coast Highway to Stonehill Drive) and Stonehill Drive (from Selva Road to San Juan Creek) and west of San Juan Creek; and along the entire coastal area west of Pacific Coast Highway (from Selva Road to the northwestern City limit).

B. RecetWlon Centsr As designated in Offsite Emergency Response Plans.

C. Evacuation Procedure The population within Subsector 9 of Dana Point will evacuate to the north via Pacific Coast Highway, then proceed north on Pacific Coast Highway. Evacuation traffic will be directed to the assigned reception center.

D. Institutions Reauirine Special Evacuation Consideration 1.

Capistrano-by-the-Sea Hospital,34000 Capistrano By The Sea Drive.

2.

Richard Henry Dana Elementary School and Exceptional Needs Facility,24242 la Cresta Drive.

3.

Broderick Montessori School,24292 Del Prado.

4.

St. Edward's Children's Center,33866 Calle La Primavera.

5.

Stonebridge Day School,32091 Alipaz Street.

6.

Gloria Dei Lutheran Pre-School, 33501 Stonehill Drive.

7.

Happy Campers Pre. School,33501 Del Prado.

8.

Horizon High School,24901 Harbor Drive.

sD B-9

1 Subsector 10

/3 V

A. Descripliga Subsector 10 includes the residential, commercial, and recreational areas within Dana Point which lie north of Selva Road, west of San Juan Creek, and east of Pacific Coast Highway.

1 B. Recention Center As designated in Offsite Emergency Response Plans.

C. Evacuation Procedure The population within Subsector 10 shall evacuate north on Street of the Golden Lantern, Niguel Road, and Crown Valley Parkway to Moulton Parkway. Moulton Parkway should be taken to I-405, then northbound on I-405. Evacuation traffic will be directed to the assigned reception center.

O D. Institutions Reauirine Snecial Evacuation Consideration

. 'J 1.

Dana Hills High School,33333 Street of the Golden Lantern.

2.

South Shores Christian Pre-School,32712 Crown Valley Parkway.

3.

Horizon High School,24901 Harbor Drive 4.

Dana Pre-School,34052 Street of the Violet Lantern.

5.

Seaside Terrace, Dana Point j

l l

(

,LJ B-10 i

Subsector 11

(

A. Description Subsector 11 includes the recreational areas which comprise San Onofre State Beach.

1 B. -Bastglip.It C.tnist As designated in Offsite Emergency Response Plans.

C. Evacuation Procedure The population within the portion of San Onofre State Beach which is located north of SONGS and north of the U.S.M.C. Enlisted Men's Club Beach shall evacuate to the north and access northbound I-5 at either the Basilone Road interchange of the Cristianitos Road interchange. Traffic should continue northbound on I-5. Evacuation traffic will be directed to the assigned reception center.

The population within the portion of San Onofre State Beach which is located north of SONGS and south h

of the U.S.M.C. Enlisted Men's Club Beach shall evacuate north on Old Highway 101 and access northbound I-5 at the Basilone Road interchange. Traffic should continue northbound on I-5.

Evacuation traffic will be directed to the assigned reception center.

The population within the portion of San Onofre State Beach which is located south of SONGS shall evacuate south on Old liighway 101 and access southbound I-5 via the " View Point Crash Gate. Traffic should continue southbound on I-5. Evacuation traffic will be directed to the assigned reception center.

D. Institutions Reauirine Special Evacuation Consideration

None, m

B-11

Subsector 12

O A. Description Subsector 12 includes all areas which comprise Camp Pendleton Marine Corps Base.

B. Beception Centit 3

As designated in Offsite Emergency Response Plans.

C. Ev cuation Procedure a

4 i

Refer to United States Marine Corps Camp Pendleton Emergency Management Plan.

D. Institutions Reauirine Special Evacuation Consideration 1.

San Onofre Elementary School,200 Pate Road.

8 i

o 1

i U

1 B-12 4

'l

Subsector 13 01 w/

A. Description Subsector 13 includes all areas which comprise San Onofre Nuclear Generatitq; Station (SONGS).

l B. Reception Center As designated in Offsite Emergency Response Plans.

C. Eyacuation Procedag The population within the SONGS area west ofI-5 shall evacuate north on Old Highway 101 and access northbound I-5 at the Basilone Road interchange. Evacuation traffic will be directed to the assigned l

reception center.

]

The population within the SONGS area east of I-5 shall evacuate north on El Camino Real to the main gate, turn left (northbound) on Old Highway 101, and access northbound I-5 at the Basilone Road O

interchange. Evacuation traffic will be directed to the assigned reception center.

O D. Institutions Reauirine Special Evacuation Consideration None.

1 0

B-13

Sparsely Populated Areas

~O Outside Established Subsectors A. Description In the unincorporated area of Orange county, northeast of Disti; cts 2,4, and 7, lies Rancho Mission Viejo. The Rancho is largely uninhabited range land devoted to cattle grazing. However, there are five industrial plants on the ranch that are within 10 miles of SONGS, and there are 17 ranch dwellings and four industrial plants along Ortega Highway that are within 11 miles of SONGS.

B. Reception Center e

As designated in Offsite Emergency Response Plans.

C. Evacuation Procedure Primary:

West along Ortega Highway (SR 74) to Rancho Viejo Road and Interstate 5 at either Avery Parkway or Oso Parkway interchange. Proceed north on I-5 to the assigned reception

(

center.

Alternate: East along Ortega Highway (SR 75) 58 miles to the designated reception center.

D. Institutions Reauirine Special Evacuation Consideration Rancho Mission Viejo,28672 Ortega Highway, San Juan Capistrano (1 bus).

'/

(v)

B-14

1 lO i

Appendix C l

i 1

1 l

l Persons and Vehicles Evacuating by Population Centroid

!O l

4 l

1 4

O n

y--e

Teble C-I EPZ RESIDENT POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS l

BY POPULATION CENTROID

\\

1996 2002 Ve6edes Pepenesee b ehacies Popetenes son.

t.a m e8

. an.e.

s.eaoss

.ea-t

Comoseir, eerser Sebesse P,

lleusebeids Deveme Nig6teme Amtes Pepelenes leemaebeid, Devesaw I Nr6ttsee Asees See Cleesesse i

il 1,083 483 673 726 49 1,096 488 679 733 49 12 1,224

$46 760 821 l.260

$$9 778 840

$7 13 1 147 1 192 1 918 2.091 141 3 168 1 401 i OSI 2.106 141 Sohnodel L44e 2,42) 3,3 ~1 J.639 243 3,323

2. 44 ~

3. 40R 3.6 ~9 249 2

28 964

$46 760 828 43 994 557 77) 837 43 22 683 1.392 1,934 2,093 31 706 1.400 1,950 2.10$

32 23 2.954 416

$79 625 133 3J77 569 787 849 152 24 1.547 29$

418 443 70 1.881 408 568 61) 25 1,033 1,267 1,764 1,90$

46 1,098 fjo$

l.818 1,962 49 26 1,4 54 624 869 938 6$

1,4$4 624 869 938

($

27 3 380 1 741 2 410 2.623 161 4 43 2 028 2 824 1 049 198 SarhkM 12.213 6.283 8.*32 9 448 330 13 9l "

A nn

• 9.391 10,133 626 3

31 4.49$

2.397 3,338 3.603 220 S.0l t 2.442 3,401 3,671 226 32 616 299 416 449 28 473 320 441 481 30 33 1,405 492 68$

740 61 1,318

$27 734 792 68 34 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 33 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 36 1294 2424 3 179 1 644 218 9.542 2 $IS 1 507 3 781 249 Sebad 12.2I0 5 612

',813 8.43s 349 12,*40 3 804 R OM2 R "23 J '1 4

el 2.120 814 1,13s 1,224 220 2,169 8 14 1.861 1,233 98 42 1,108 536 '

749 809 28 1,357 638 889 959 61 43 2.042 784 l.092 1,179 63 2,134 816 1,137 1,227 96 44 444 189 263 284 0

4%

212 2%

319 22 45 92$

3$7 497 537 0

996 382

$32 575 4$

46 3.395 1,309 1,823 1,968

$49 3,665 1,384 1,927 2.000 165 j

(

47 6 699 2 614 3 640 3 929 0

7 412 28%

4 031 4J54 314 Serhunnel Is ?)3 6 603 9 I9' 9 919 a61 18.22R

",I63

9. 9"J

10. *6 '

320 CarF Tearl 46.607 2t923 29,133 31,412 2.20$ t SA408 22,30I 31.056 33,124 2,268 7

Dene Pesse l4)

S

$1 233 l 103 146 458 6

233 103 146 158 18 Dohesy kete Perk

$2 0l 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

Subud JJS 103 046 133 6

233 103 ten ISR 11 Capistreme Beect 6

61 S,337 2J46 3J)5 3310 led 5,412 2.379 3,382 3,664 244 62 1,390 6tl 869 940 38 1.491 6$2 927 1.004 67 63 864 100 540 585 21 921 4n8 579 627 42 Serhed

• 391 L33' 4.*44 3 8J3 203

".als 3,4J9 4.RMn 3.292 33 2 has Jose 7

71 2.380 889 I,369 1,369 70 2,773 955 1.368 1,470 125 Copieerese 72 551 198 282 30$

15 600 208 291 320 27 73 2.480 988 IJoe 1.413 67 2.880 1,031 1,473 1,$91 130 74 I 962 6 54 912 1 007 53 2.197 158 1 081 1 167 94 Sehennot

• $ '9 2.639 1892 4.094 203 8.432 2,934 4 212 4.34n 380 8

81 S,918 2.809 3,006 3.247 160 6.426 2,233 3.212 3,469 289 42 2,497 863 1.230 1.329 67 2.715 918 1,337 1,444 122 51 2,781 944 IJ46 1.4 54 73 2.817 984 1,403 1,51$

127 84 S.082 1,695 2,416 2,610 137 5.674 1.947 2.775 2,998 2$$

IS 3.712 I,259 1,795 1,939 100 3.834 1,307 I,863 2,012 173 le 1 070

. 168

$2$

567 29 1.248 427 609 611

$6 Sehenal 20,990

',23n 10,318 11.14 $

36' 22, *lt

',n36 88,199 12.093 1.022 Carr Tseul 2t969 9, set 04,210 Is.239 771 31,len Itste 11411 Is443 I,402 Does Peses IB) 9 91 4.485 652 l 927 1.003 l 40 1.819 798 1,133 1,229 82 92 11.211 49281 7 009

? $81 l 101 12.331

$ 420 1.70$

8.140 SSS Sehesent 17096 L380

'.932 AJne 343 14.131 L2In K 840 9,369 43' to B01 7,009 3,081 4,380 4,741 889 7.566 3,326 4.729 3,119 340 102 5.214 2,292 3,2$8 3,$27 141 6,120 2.692 3.827 4,143 27$

103 2 061 907 1.239 1 196

$6 2 484 1 002 1.132 I680 112

'9 Soharanel I4,2se 6,2n0

1. 92' 9,643 346 Ill'c 7,110 lo. ION 10.942

• 2R Carr res.I 34,see as,see 21,149 23,s43 see 3s 3s2 1 6.s 11 it.se2 219el I,72 7 70741 lev as4 st #Je as est 7e 214 3.9Is lit ese to ast 7m 449 7 alls sJe8 Wilbur Smith A8sociates C-1

Tcbis C-2 NON-RESIDENT PERSONS IN EPZ BY POPULATION CENTROID g

190s hRemesme Persons 1993 F -. " - - - Pereens M

Weeksed

%shday Peu tnessur

%eshame l

Wehde?

l Asegheneur foemmasasev esteer %shuump h ee(mse BeMisseer Wereer BeeshNesseer-W eetwr ReedtS useer W eehre BeerhS esseerl H ertwe 'l trerhS eestee l H ertwe l heechS esseer Ese Omsfew Il lli IS 3.5 M 10 1.988 3

900 16 3.735 Il 2.118 9

94 Sesse Park 112 25 2.028 l$

1,069 0

0 27 2.lH 16 1.139 0

0 1I3 9

2 401 9

e47 0

0 9

2 990 9

100n 0

0 Subensal 4J 1 94)

JO 4 004 3

seg 49 g 429 JJ 4 tJ;

)

the 6en ttremesse 6

il 0

460 0

480 0

480 0

$10 0

$10 0

Sie 12 10 1,310 31 910 10

$30 la 1.391 34 1.030 11 984 11 90 010 10 482 9

0 99 eBS M

912 9

0 3ebesant 60 2 '20 102 1 92) 13 l 0JU se j aas 5 tol J yJ) de g ewt 8Y 2

24 31 91 31 98 0

0 M

M 97 0

0 22 20 20 20 20 10 22 22 23 li 23 to 40 10 40 0

40 il 42 11 42 0

42 H

40 0

101 0

S 0

44 0

til 0

5 0

25 to 0

10 0

0 0

11 0

11 0

0 0

26 10 20 20 30 10 ll 23 22 32 5

Il 27 99 91 400 80 to 20 60 97 4 96 89 22 21 Subennel l 'e 22J

'93 Jet JJ 80 19) 239 See Z 'E Jo 83 3

31 175 27 284 27 10 le 191 28 313 28 il li 32 31 0

31 0

0 0

H e

34 0

0 0

33 269 206 432 206 20 206 294 219 472 219 22 219 H

49 2.810 49 1.423 0

0 49 3.027 49 1.513 0

0 33 35 4.690 33 1.200 0

0 18 4 918 38 2,3 R 0

0 M

111 21 288 21 to 10 191 28 119 28 il 11 Sahassal

'30

, 'au t.119 J &&S 40 Jle

'94

& 241 d.22) 4 126 de 240 4

di 113 3

609 124 5

664 S

S S

42 63 63 3

0 0

49 68 0

0 di 10 31 S

0 0

11 5

34 5

0 0

44 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 45 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 46 0

0 0

0 0

2 0

0 0

0 0

0 47 20 0

61 0

0 0

2?

O 68 0

0 0

Se6maal J06 IS

'ei 13 J

J

~223 le 632 de 3

J Chr Tonal I,1 72 10.720 2, 714 6,003 99 1,341 1,281 ftJN A032 6,4 71 IN 1.423 Dene rsent 44)

S Si le 2,4 M 838 0

200 la 2 628 3

809 0

212 Deleeny $L Park

$2 l9 1 110 9

1 241 0

290 le 1 940 4

1 120 0

266 Subanes!

23 e 28J 10 2 06) 0 430 2'

e.348 il 2.189 0

d '8 Capeserene Beach 6

el 40 100 30 I SO 0

44 100

!)9 3

0 62 303 100 7M 450 5

0 3]l 9%

804 4 78 0

43 0

0 9

0 0

0 0

0 9

0 0

0 JVhanaal 34J

}WW

'91 a00 10 0

3 'J j 06)

GM eJ '

&0 0

a has disen 7

71 0

0 IS 0

0 0

0 0

66 0

0 0

( e0estresse 72 221 90 609 60 31 0

242 661 64 34 0

73 23 0

51 0

0 0

25 0

58 0

0 0

14 21 0

211 0

9 0

29 0

291 0

9 0

Subsonal Je '

90 9e3 60 Je 0

191 96 DEF M

40 0

8 81 210 880 420 ISO 10 0

230 191 439 139 61 0

52 160 ISO 210 100 0

0 173 159 295 106 0

0 8) 150

'l20 290 90 60 864 127 2 73 96 5

H 84 til 250 625 ISO 38 60 121 266 643 159 34 64 89 10 0

300 0

10 0

11 0

328 0

11 0

86 10 e

leo 0

5 0

11 0

179 0

9 0

5mbhseel 6)!

'UV 2 023 490 el 120

'A2 i) 2.24) 320 e'

i)?

t ik Tsant Olt 990 2,0be 290 90 120 1,003 839 JJ02

$N 907 119 Dame Poesie lBI 9

98 20 360 a0 180 0

0 22 382 16 191 0

0 92 400 f 260 000 600 il 200 411 1 214 696 617 18 112 Ra6hnest 420 1 340 610

'80 JJ 200 439 2 63' ee' 828 Ja JA) 10 101 30 300 3M 200 10 20 319 383

1 Il 26 102 40 390 70 50 S

10 44 372 77 s3 5

11 103 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 Jimenant ma s30 dde 230 43 Jo SN 090 459 Jee le 22 8

<w Tesel su e,39s I.sst s,693 et one see e.9n 2.s01 2,n20 u

in tut 4L 2 0th 2884 -

1.10 9 64.Jss 198 3.edi 3.293 BC.ese.

s.260 II.22 9 28I 3.2.00 Wilt ur Smith Associates l

C2

Tr.ble C-3 l

2002 RESIDENT AND TRANSIENT VEHICLES EVACUATING EPZ BY POPULATION CENTROID 3082 2082 Treesseet b eksdes 8.vecessing 2002 leest beheetes Lesensues i

Reendeel l

%ehedes sob f vernemas

%eehend

%erkdev highettee

("emmeese, sereer Seheese Devesse highteese H erber BeechTiener

%erher l hesehNaewer

% erher i 8esch/benee H eekend H oekdeo N hemene 9

see Oestre 11 Ill 0

0 14 1.073 9

603 S

273 1.087 612 278 5 ease Pech 112 0

0 23 718 64 378 0

0 741 192 0

113 0

0 9

850 4

119 0

0 894 140 0

Sehenkai 0

0 di 2,MI 2'

l.Jo

• 3 2 *J 2M2 1.344 2 'n bee 01emesee i

11 6 79 733 0

170 0

170 0

170 849 849 903 12 778 840 9

464 28 343 9

195 1.231 1.150 1.044 13 1991 2I06 46 129 64 171 9

0 2 126 2 188 2 111 5e:4aant 3 ewt J 6 't J3 963 9J eM4 44 363

4. 42n 4 in$

4 03 '

2 21 817 28 49 28 49 0

0 812 852 837 4

22 1990 210$

18 ll 18 il 1.979 1.979 2.885 23 787 849 9

21 9

21 0

21 817 817 84 a

24 568 613 36 0

92 0

0 604 660 618 25 til8 1962 9

0 9

0 0

0 1.827 1.827 1.962 I

26 869 938 9

18 18 le 5

S 889 903 948 27 2824 1049 to 28 441 42 18 11 2 002 1 411 1 078 Submeet 9.391 40.233 460 119

~22 439 J2 42 98'l 90.432 40.42' 3

33 3401 36 tl 139 14 263 14 9

6 3.574 3.e78 3.686 32 441 es t 28 0

28 0

0 0

473 473 481 33 734 192 245 110 393 110 18 110 1.089 1.237 920 34 0

0 di 1.009 41

$04 0

0 1.050

$45 0

31 0

0 32 1,646 32 779 0

0 1.678 Bil 0

36 1902 1781 149 le 261 14 9

e 1 674 1 779 1 799 Submeal 30s)

5. ~23 end

2. '9J 4.020 1.421 J'

12)

II.339 l0.323 0.882 d

4 di l161 1233 103 3

$$1 3

3 1,267 8.71 $

!.260 42 889 919

$7 3

57 3

0 0

949 949 919 43 l137 1227 9

3 28 3

0 0

1.849 1.168 1.227 44 296 319 0

0 0

0 0

0 296 2%

349 45

$32

$?$

0 0

0 0

0 0

$32

$32 573 46 1927 2080 0

0 0

0 0

0 1.927 1.927 2.080 47 4011 4144 18 0

97 0

0 0

4 091 4 000 4 194

$nhernal 99"3

10. '6

• IM 8

093 3

J J

10. l *)

10.6*6

10. *'4 Oty Teent 31.016 JL124 1.N1 2.383 2.327 L232 87 130 34.006 33 811 34.141 4

/

I,see Peset M)

S St 146 158 9

731 248 0

61 906 399 219 Debeey Seese Part

$2 0

le 1 126 9

177 0

76 1 119 182 76 Submeal 440 138 2) 4.R "

9 62) 0 IJ '

2.043

'80 293 Capsesrene beach 6

61 3382 3661 36 53 46 80 0

3.472 3,507 3,666 62 927 9004 276 478 610 239 5

0 1.581 1.816 1.009 61 479 627 0

0 4

0 0

0 919 964 627 hebweef 4su L292 342 32)

'20 ble 9

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to 4de re r28 2 144 le s24 s 09I s.3 s t 23t I,I2e an il1 i s2.se r ri des Wilbur Smith Assaammes C-3

i 1

iO 4

l Appendix D a

4 Traffic Control Points and Barricade Locations i

by Jurisdiction l0 1

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O Traffic Control Diagram Legend Direction of normal traffic flow

->=

Routing of evacuation traffic xexexex Moveable barricade AAA Traffic cones O

h Traffic control officer Jurisdiction Codes For Traffic Control Locations:

i SC San Clemente SJC San Juan Capistrano DP Dana Point MV Mission Viejo O

Traffic Control Points

(~)

And Barricade Locations City of San Clemente SC-1.

Location:

Cristianitos Road at I-5 Interchange.

Control:

Direct traffic from Cristianitos Road onto northbound I-5 on-ramp.

Barricade: Block southbound I-5 on-ramp.

Cones:

Place traffic cones at eastbound Cristianitos Road approach to channel all eastbound traffic into the left-turn bay serving access to the northbound I-5 on-ramp.

SC-2.

Location:

Avenida Del Presidente and Avenida Calafia-Southbound I-5 Ramps.

Control:

Direct traffic northbound on Avenida del Presidente.

Barricade: Block southbound I-5 on-ramp.

Cones:

Place traffic cones at eastbound Avenida Calafia approach to block access to southbound Avenida Del Presidente (refer to Figure D-SC2).

SC-3.

Location:

South El Camino Real at Northbound I-5 Ramps.

Control:

Direct traffic from northbound Avenida del Presidente onto Avenida Mendocino

]

overpass and then northbound El Camino Real. Direct traffic from south El Camino x,,/

Real onto northbound I-5 on-ramp.

Barricade: Block northbound Avenida del Presidente north of Avenida Mendocino.

Cones:

Place traffic cones at northbound South El Camino Real approach to channel all northbound traffic into the left-turn bay serving access to the northbound I-5 on-ramp.

SC4.

Location:

South El Camino Real at I-5 Interchange (S. El Camino Real underpass).

Control:

Direct traffic from El Camino Real onto northbound I-5 on ramp.

Barricade: Block southbound I-5 on-ramp and northbound El Camino Real northwest of the ncrthbound 1-5 on-ramp.

Cones:

Place traffic cones at northbound South El Camino Real approach to channel all northbound traffic into the right lane serving access to the northbound 1-5 on-ramp.

Also place traffic cones on South El Camino Real, at the southbound approach, to channel all southbound traffic into the left-turn bay serving access to the northbound I-5 on-ramp.

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D-1

j SC-5, Location:

South El Camino Real and Avenida Presidio.

j Control:

Direct traffic from El Camino Real onto eastbound Avenida Presidio (towards 1-5 interchange northbound on-ramp).

4 Cones:

Place traffic cones at northbound South El Camino Real approach to channel all northbound traffic into the right-turn lane serving access to eastbound Avenida

[

j Presidio. Also place traffic cones on South El Camino Real, at the southbound j

approach, to channel all southbound traffic into the left-turn bay serving access to eastbound Avenida Presidio.

SC-6.

Location:

Avenida Presidio at I-5 Interchange.

Control:

Direct traffic from Avenida Presidio onto northbound I-5 on ramp, t

Barricade: Block southbound I-5 on-ramp.

Cones:

Place traffic conet at westbound Avenida Presidio approach to channel all westbound traffic into the right lane serving access to the northbound I-5 on-ramp. Also place traffic cones on Avenida Presidio, at the eastbound approach, to channel all eastbound traffic into the left-turn bay serving access to the northbound I-5 on-ramp.

SC-7.

Location:

Avenida Palizada at I-5 Interchange.

Control:

Direct traffic from Avenida Palizada and Avenida Caballeros onto northbound I-5 i

on-ramp.

E Cones:

Place traffic cones across westbound Avenida Palizada immediately west of the I-5 1

northbound on-ramp to channel all westbound traffic onto the northbound 1-5 on-ramp. Also place traffic cones on Avenida Palizada, at the eastbound approach, to channel all eastbound traffic into the left-turn lane serving access to the northbound l 5 on-ramp. Northbound Avenida Caballeros should also be coned off immediately north of Avenida Palizada to channel all northbound traffic onto westbound Avenida l

Palizada and onto the north'oound I-5 on-ramp. Refer to Figure D-SC7.

SC-8.

Location:

Avenida Pico at I-5 interchange.

Control:

Direct traffic from Avenida Pico onto northbound I-5 on-ramp.

Barricade: Block southbound 1-5 on-ramp.

Cones:

Place trafiic cones at westbound Avenida Pico approach to channel all westbound traffic into the right lane serving access to the northbound I-5 on-ramp. Also place traffic cones on Avenida Pico, at the eastbound approach, to channel all eastbound J

traffic into the left-turn bay serving access to the northbound I-5 on-ramp.

i SC-9.

Locaticn:

North El Camino Real and Avenida Pico.

Control:

Direct traffic to the north on El Camino Real.

Barricade: Block eastbound Avenida Pico immediately east of El Camino Real.

Cones:

Place traffic cones at the Avenida Pico eastbound approach to channel all eastbound j

traffic into the left-turn bay serving access to northbound North El Camino Real.

!O D-2

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SC-10.

Location:

Camino De Estrella at I-5 interchange.

' /G Control:

Direct traffic from Camino De Estrella onto northbound I-5 on-ramps. Since the volume of evacuation traffic is projected to be greater from the east than the west, one of the westbound lanes could be directed onto the south-side northbound I-5 on-ramp until eastside evacuation traffic has dissipated.

Barricade: Block southbound I-5 on-ramp.

Cones:

Place traffic cones at westbound Camino De Estrella approach to block westbound travel beyond the I-5 northbound on-ramps. Also place traffic cones on Camino De Estrella, at the eastbound approach, to channel all eastbound traffic into the right-turn bay serving access to the northbound I-5 on-ramp. Refer to Figure D-SC10.

SC-I I.

Location:

Pacific Coast Highway (North El Camino Real) and Camino Capistrano.

Control:

Direct traffic to the north on Pacific Coast Highway.

Cones:

Place cones across access to eastbound Camino Capistrano at Pacific Coast flighway.

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Traffic Control Points And Barricade Locations City of San Juan Capistrano SJC-1.

' Location:

Via California and Camino Los Ramblas.

Control:

Direct traffic west on Camino Las Ramblas (towards I-5 on-ramp).

SJC-2.

Location:

U.S.1-Camino Las Ramblas at I-5 Interchange.

Control:

Direct traffic from U.S. I-Camino Las Ramblas onto northbound I-5 on ramps.

Since the vast majority of evacuation traffic would approach from the east traffic using one of the westbound lanes could be directed to the south-side northbound I-15 on-ramp (loop ramp).

Barricade: Block southbound I-5 on-ramps on north and south sides of interchange. Also block westbound Camino Las Ramblas immediately west of northbound I-5 on-ramp and eastbound Camino Las Ramblas immediately east of northbound I-5 off-ramp.

I i

SJC-3.

Location:

Camino Capistrano and Stonehill Drive-I-5 Northbound Ramp.

A Control:

Direct northbound Camino Capistrano traffic in right lane onto northbound I-5 on-ramp. Direct northbound Camino Capistrano traffic in left lane to continue north on Camino Capistrano.

Direct eastbound traffic from Stonehill Drive onto northbound Camino Capistrano.

Cones:

Place traffic cones at Camino Capistrano northbound approach to channel northbound traffic in right lane onto northbound I-5 on-ramp (refer to Figure D-SJC3;.

SJC-4.

Location:

Alipaz Street and Del Obispo Street.

l Control:

Direct traffic onto eastbound Del Obispo Street.

l i

SJC-5.

Location:

Camino Capistrano and Del Obispo Street.

Control:

Direct eastbound Del Obispo Street traffic in left lane onto northbound Camino Capistrano. Direct eastbound Del Obispo Street traffic in right lane to continue east on Del Obispo Street (towards I-5 on-ramp at Ortega Highway interchange. Direct traffic from northbound Camino Capistrano onto eastbound Del Obispo Street.

Cones:

Place traffic cones at Del Obispo Street eastbound approach to channel the left (inside) lane into the left turn bay, Place additional traffic cones at the eastbound approach to shift traffic in the outside lane to the inside lane parallel to.the cone pattern described for channeling the left-turn traffic. This serves to free-up the outside lane east of the intersection which would be serving most of the traffic from b

northbound Camino Capistrano.

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i SJC-6.

Location:

Camino Capistrano and I 5 Southbound Ramps (South of San Juan Creek Road).

j Control:

Direct traffic northbound on Camino Capistrano.

Barricade: Block southbound 1-5 on-ramp and control access to southbound Camino Capistrano left-turn lane with traffic cones.

l SJC-7.

Location:

Camino Capistrano and San Juan Creek Road.

{

Control:

Direct all traffic northbound on Camino Capistrano during the early stages of the l

evacuation.

Once evacuation traffic begics to dissipate at the La ' Novia Avenue /Valle Road northbound I-5 on-ramp, divert a portion of northbound Camino j

Capistrano traffic to Valle Road via San Juan Creek Road.

i j

SJC-8.

Location:

San Juan Creek Road and Valle Road.

Control:

Direct traffic from Sw Juan Creek Road onto southbound Valley Road (towards the northbound I-5 on-ramp at La Novia Avenue).

SJC-9.

Location:

Northbound I-5 Ramps at La Novia Avenue and Valle Road.

4 I

Control:

Direct traffic from Valle Road and La Novia Avenue onto the northbound I-5 on-ramp.

]

1 SJC-10.

Location:

La Novia Avenue and San Juan Creek Road.

Control:

Direct traffic to the north on La Novia Avenue (towards Ortega Highway).

O SJC-I I.

Location:

Ortega Highway and La Novia Avenue.

Control:

Direct traffic to the west on Ortega Highway (towards Rancho Viejo Road).

SJC-12.

Location:

Ortega Highway and Rancho Viejo Road.

Control:

Direct traffic to the north on Rancho Viejo Road.

I Barricade: Block westbound Ortega Highway immediately west of Rancho Viejo Road and

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eastbound Ortega Highway immediately east of Rancho Viejo Road. Place traffic j

cones at the eastbound Ortega Highway approach to funnel eastbound traffic into the left-turn bay. Place traffic cones at the eastbound Ortega Highway approach to j

channel traffic from the inside lane to the outside lane and right-turn bay.

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SJC-13.

Location:

Ortega Highway at I-5 Interchange.

Control:

Direct traffic from eastbound Ortega Highway onto the northbound I-5 on-ramp.

3 Barricade: Block the southbound I-5 on-ramp.

Block eastbound and westbound Ortega Highway immediately east of the northbound I-5 on-ramp.

l SJC-14.

Location:

Camino Capistrano and Junipero Serra Road.

Control:

Direct traffic from northbound Camino Capistrano onto eastbound Junipero Serra Road (towards the northbound I-5 on-ramp).

Barricade: Block northbound Camino Capistrano immediately north of Junipero Scrra Road.

D-5 l

SJC-15.

Location:

Junipero Serra Road at I-5 Interchange.

A Control:

Direct traffic from Junipero Serra Road onto the northbound I-5 on-ramp.

Barricade:

Block the southbound I 5 on-ramp.

SJC-16.

Location:

Rancho Viejo Road and Junipero Serra Road.

- Control:

Direct the majority of northbound traffic on Rancho Viejo Road to continue north on Rancho Viejo Road. As conditions at the Junipero Serra Road / northbound 1-5 on-ramp permit, divert a portion of the northbound Rancho Viejo Road traffic to the freeway interchange on-ramp.

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l AU Figure D-SJC16 i M4

t Traffic Control Points And Barricade Locations City of Dana Point DP-1.

Location:

Pacific Coast Highway and Doheny Park Road.

Control:

Direct traffic north on Doheny Park Road (towards Camino Capistrano).

Cones:

Place traffic cones at the southbound Pacific Coast Highway approach to channel southbound traffic into the left-turn bay.

5 DP-2.

Location:

Pacific Coast Highway and Del Obispo Street.

Control:

Direct traffic onto northwest-bound Pacific Coast Highway.

D P-3.

Location:

Pacific Coast Highway and Selva Road.

Control:

Direct traffic northbound on Pacific Coast Highway.

DP-4.

Location:

Street of the Golden Lantern and Camino Del Avion.

Control:

Direct traffic northbound on Street of the Golden Lantern.

.p DP-5.

Location:

Del Obispo Street and Stonehill Drive

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Control:

Direct traffic northbound on Del Obispo Street.

Barricade: Block eastbound Stonehill Drive immediately east of Del Obispo Street.

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Traffic Control Points And Barricade Locations City of Mission Viejo j

MV-1.

Location:

Rancho Viejo Road and Avery Parkway.

Control:

Direct a major ponion of the northbound Rancho Viejo Road traffic to contmue nonh on Rancho Viejo Road. Diven a ponion of the northbound traffic onto westbound Avery Parkway (towards the northbound I-5 on-ramp)

M V-2.

Location:

avery Parkway at I-5 Interchange.

Control:

Direct westbound Avery Parkway traffic onto the nonhbound I-5 on ramp.

Barricade: Block the southbound I-5 on-ramp and block westbound Avery Parkway immediately west of the nonhbound I-5 on-ramp.

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