ML20128K027

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La Salle Nuclear Power Station-Site-Specific Offsite Radiological Emergency Preparedness Alert & Notification Sys QA Verification
ML20128K027
Person / Time
Site: LaSalle  Constellation icon.png
Issue date: 05/29/1985
From:
COMMONWEALTH EDISON CO.
To:
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ML20128K024 List:
References
NUDOCS 8507100464
Download: ML20128K027 (100)


Text

.

LA SALLE NUCLEAR POWER STATION SITE-SPECIFIC OFFSITE RADIOLOGICAL EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS ALERT AND NOTIFICATION SYSTEM QUALITY ASSURANCE VERIFICATION Prepared for Federal Emergency Management Agency Washington, D.C.

20472 Under Contract No. EMN-83-C-1217 May 29, 1985 l

l kDR kDgCK05000373 64 850701 F

PDR

LA SALLE NUCLEAR POWER STATION SITE-SPECIFIC OFFSITE RADIOLOGICAL EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS ALERT AND NOTIFICATION SYSTEM QUALITY ASSURANCE VERIFICATION Prepared for Federal Emergency Management Agency Washington, D.C.

20472 Under Contract No. EMW-83-C-1217 May 29, 1985

TABLE OF CONTENTS I.

INTRODUCTION 1

A.

Identification 1

1. Site Information 1
2. Governments Within The 10-Mile Emergency Planning Zone 2

B.

Scope Of Review 3

1. Emergency Plans For Off site Response Organizations 3
2. Alert And Notification System Design Report 4
3. FEMA Evaluation Findings 4

II.

FINDINGS FOR EV ALUATION CRITERION E.6 6

A.

Administrative Means Of Alerting (E.6.1, FEMA-43) 7 B. Physical Means Of Alerting (E.6.2, FEMA-43) 9

1. Sirens (E.6.2.1, PEMA-43) 10
2. Special Alerting (E.6.2.4, FEMA-43) 21 III. FINDINGS FOR EVALUATION CRITERION N.1 23 IV.

FINDINGS FOR EVALUATION CRITERIA E.5, F.1, N. 2, N. 3, AND N. 5 31 REFERENCE LIST 32 APPENDIX At OSPM Topographical Profile Charts OSPM Topographical Input Data OSPM Siren Sound Pressure Level Input Data OSPM Meteorological Input Data OSPM Siren Sound Pressure Level Output Data APPENDIX B:

Sample Size Determination

La Salle Nuclear Power Station Site-Specific Offsite Radiological Emergency Preparedness Alert And Notification System Quality Assurance verification State Of Illinois La Salle County Municipality Of Grand Ridge Municipality Of Marsellies Municipality Of Ransom Municipality Of Seneca Grundy County Municipality Of Kinsman Municipality Of Verona Livingston County I.

INTRODU CTION A.

Identification

1. Site Information The La Salle Nuclear Power Station, operated by the Commonwealth Edison Company, utilizes two 1078 mie (not) General Electric boiling water reactor electric generating units.

Unit 1 began commercial operation in 1982; Unit 2, in 1984.1 The La Salle Nuclear Power Station is located in Brookfield Township in La Salle County, Illinois.

It is located in the northeastern portion of Illinois, approximately 7 miles south-southeast of Marseilles, 5 miles south of the Illinois River, and 6 miles couthwest of Seneca.

I 1

The land within a 10-mile radius of the La Salle Nuclear Power Station is generally flat with scattered wooded areas and is primarily uced for agricultural purposes.

2. Governments Within The 10-Mile Emeroency Plannino Zone The emergency planning zone ( EPZ ) for the La Salle Nuclear Power Station is defined by a 10-mile-radius circle with the La Salle Nuclear Power Station as the center point.

The EPZ, located entirely in the State of Illinois, includes portions of La Salle, Grundy, and Livingston Counties.

The La Salle and Grundy County line is oriented north-south across the EPZ, approximately 4 miles east of the La Salle Nuclear Power Station.

La Salle County, located to the west of this line, occupies the majority of the EPZ.

Livingston County extends less than 1 mile into the southern section of the EPZ and contains only a small number of residences.

For practical purposes, the portion of Livingston County within the EPZ is treated as an extension of the jurisdiction of La Salle County.

There are six municipalities located within the La Salle Nuclear Power Station EPZ Grand Ridge, Marseilles, Ransom, and Seneca in La Salle County and Kinsman and Verona in Grundy County.

The total 1980 population within these six municipalities was 8409 persons:

4766 persons were located in Marseilles, 2098 persons in Seneca, and less than 700 persons in each of the remaining municipalities.

The 1980 population within 5 miles of the La Salle Nuclear Power Station wan 729 persons.

An additional 3759 2

persons lived in either rural residences or on f armsteads between 5 miles and 10 miles f rom the La Salle Nuclear Power Station.

The above population figures were obtained f rom the Illinois Emergency Services and Disaster Agency and Commonwealth Edison Company's "An Off-Site Emergency Plan Alert and Notification Addendum for the La Salle Nuclear Power Station," as supplemented by an operational reliability statement forwarded by FEMA Region V (hereinafter referred to as the Design Report).2 Recreational facilities within the La Salle Nuclear Power Station EPZ include a 60-acre park with camping f acilities on the southwest shore of the site's cooling lake.

This 2058-acre cooling lake is used for recreational boating and fishing.

Approximately 6 miles north-northwest of the La Salle Nuclear Power Station is the 510-acre Illini State Park, which is EE used f or camping, boating, picnicking, and fishing.

There are no airports, government installations, or correctional facilities within the La Salle Nuclear Power Station EPZ.2 B.

Scope Of Review

1. Pmeroency Plans For Off site Response Oroanizations The emergency plans and implementing instructions for j urisdictions within the La Salle Nuclear Power Station EPZ include "The Illinois Plan for Radiological Accidents,"

Volumes I and III, March 1982.3 L

3

Ref erences 2 and 3 above document the administrative means established for notifying and providing prompt instructions to the public within the La Salle Nuclear Power Station EPZ.

2. Alert And Notification System Design Report The physical means established for alerting the public within the La Salle Nuclear Power Station EPZ are documented in Sections 2.3, 2.4, and supporting Appendices of the Design Report.
3. FEMA Evaluation Findinas FEMA Region V and the Regional Assistance Committee have evaluated four offsite emergency response exercises for the La Salle Nuclear Power Station:

FEMA, " Post Exercise Evaluation, State of Illinois and Grundy and La Salle Counties Exercise of the Illinois Plan for Radiological Accidents for La Salle Nuclear Power Plant, December 4,1980" (No date);4 FEMA, " Final Report, La Salle Nuclear Power Station Full-Scale Exerciso, April 14-15, 1982,"

May 1982;5 FEMA, " Exercise Final Report, La Salle Nuclear Power Station Joint Radiological Emergency Exercise," July 12, 1983;6 and FEMA, " Exercise Report, La Salle Nuclear Power Station, Joint Exercise (Partial Participation),

October 10-11, 1984," November 26, 1984; also, revisions of March 26, 1985.7 4

In a letter to the Honorable James R.

Thompson, Governor of Illinois, dated June 4,1982, signed by Lee M.

Thomas, FEMA Associate Director, State and Local Programs and Support, the La Salle Nuclear Power Station received FEMA approval under Title 44 of the Code of Federal Reculations, Part 350 (44 CFR 350) conditioned upon verification of the adequacy of l

the public alert and notification system.8 s

5

II.

FINDINGS FOR EVALUATION CRITERION E.6 The Design Report describing the alert and notification system for the La Salle Nuclear Power Station was reviewed against evaluation criterion E.6 and Appendix 3 of NUREG-0654/PEMA-REP-1, Revision 1,

" Criteria for Preparation and Evaluation of Radiological Emergency Response Plans and Preparedness in Support of Nuclear Power Plants" (herein-af ter ref erred to as NUREG-0654/ FEMA-REP-1, Rev. 1).

This evaluation criterion states:

Each organization shall establish administrative and physical means, and the time required for notifying and providing prompt instructions to the public within the plume exposure pathway Emergency Planning Zone.

(See Appendix 3.)

It shall be the licensee's responsibility to demonstrate that such means exist, regardless of who implements this requirement.

It shall be governments to activate such a system. gal the responsibility of the State and lo The bases for review against this evaluation criterion were the corresponding acceptance criteria of FEMA-43, " Standard Guide for the Evaluation of Alert and Notification Systems for Nuclear Power Plants" (hereinafter referred to as PEMA-43).10 This quality assurance verification review was perf ormed to make a determination of alert and notification system adequacy prior to conducting a demonstration of this system for the La Salle Nuclear Power Station on December 4,1984.

l Based upon this quality assurance verification review and public survey results, International Energy Associates Limited concludes that the design and implenentation of the alert and notification system for the La Salle Nuclear Power Station and its supporting procedures conform suf-ficiently to the acceptance criteria, as stated in FEMA-43, t

6

f or evaluation criterion E.6 of NUREG-0654/ FEMA-REP-1, Rev.

1, to support a FEMA finding that the alert and notifica-tion system is adequate.

This portion of the quality assurance verification review discusses La Salle Nuclear Power Station's alert and notification system against FEMA-43 acceptance criteria in the following areas:

the administrative means of alerting, the physical means of alerting, and the special alerting methods (utilization of institutional alerting systems).

A.

Administrative Means Of Alerting (E.6.1, FEMA-43)

The Design Report and the Illinois Plan for Radiological l

Accidents address those organizations or individuals within the state and local governments who are respon-sible for alert and notification system activation.

The decision logic shown in, Figure 1 was developed af ter a review of the current emergency procedures for the State of Illinois, La Salle County, and G rundy County.

As Figure 1 indicates, these procedures satisfy FEMA-43 acceptance criteria.

These current emergency procedures document the responsibilities concerning the alert and notification system activation process f rom the time a decision is conveyed via the Illinois Emergency Services and Disaster Agency Coordinator to the La Salle County and Grundy County Sheriffs' Dispatchers (who physically activate the sirens).

In the event of a radiological emergency at the La Salle Nuclear Power Station, principal emergency response organizations are notified via the Nuclear Accident Reporting System.

The Nuclear Accident Reporting 7

FIGt LA SALLE NUCLEAF ALERT AND NOTIFICATI0ft SYSTEM ACTI La $411e County Sheriff $eneca g, $,gg, c Police Otspat.

3,g cher, Marseflies

+

cher Ransom Fire

[],M[

Police Dispat-

,r Grand Ridg Dept. And Grand Receive Na Ridge Fire Dept.

Pecetyg Notice La Salle County ESDA Coordina.

La Salle C Chairman a tor Receives No.

ttce tice La salle County Sheriff's 01 spat-cher Receives No.

Institutto tice From E$0A

+

La Salle C Coordinator ceive Noti lilinois Emergency Services And Otsas.

~

ter Agency (E$0A)

Receives Notice Consonwealth Edison Co. System Power Ots.

Institutic patcher Receives No*

Grundy Cou

+

tIce Grundy County C'i Noli

$heriff's 01 spat.

(Or)

+

cher Receives No.

La Salle Nuclear tice From E50A Power Station De-Coordinator termines Level of Corporate Connand Cen.

ter Director Recetves Grundy Coutity E$0A Grundy Cou Emergencyn $tation

-+

Chairman i Ofrector initiates

Notic,

+

Coordinater Aeceives 30ttfication Pro-Notice Notice cess Grundy County Sher.

if f'.s Of fice Re.

Ceives Notice Morris Police / Fire 11spatcher Re.

Morris Na;

+

cetves dotice Receives >

Radiological As-sessmenc Field

  • These organtaations are capable of communicating via the Team (RAFT) Is Nuclear Accident Reporting $ystem (NAR$). NAR$ is utt1 Otspatched to tred by Commonwealth Edison Co. to provide initial noti.

e The $1te fication to other organtaations of a radiological fact.

dent at the la Salle Nuclear Power Station. NAR$ is also Illinois Department used to provide a continual update on the status of a ra.

Of Nuclear $afety di:. logical incident. NAR$ is a state. wide system (DNS) Receives No-Ettllaing private ufre telephone circuits.

LIC' no AvalIable on l:0;'g,;;Mne-Aperture Card gage,gc)li TI APERTUllE CARD w

1 l

l RE 1 POWER STATION 1ATION DECISION / ACTION SEQUENCE DIAGRAM La Salle County Sher.

ty Board iff, Seneca Police La Salle County Sher.

neca May.

La $alle County, Seneca.

Dispatcher, Marseilles iff, Seneca Police les Mayor, Marsettles, Ransom And Police Otspatcher, Otspatcher, Marset tles

)tdent And Grand Ridge Emergencf Ranson Fire Dept. And Police Otspatcher,

) President Operations Centers Grand Ridge Fire Dept.

Ranson Fire Dept. And

)1ce Are Activated Receive Notice Of De.

frand Ridge Fire i

La $alle County Board cision To Activate Cept. Initiate Route

~

Chairman Receives No.

Alerting tice of Decision To nty Board La Salle County [mer*

Activate La Salle County Board l WCMY/WRKX In.

gency Operattens Cen.

. D airman Supoltes itiates Emergen.

elves No.

ter is Activated WCMY/WRKX (E81) Wit'l j

cy Broadcasting Emergency Broadcast And Notif tes Lo.

La Salle County Sher.

)sWithin tff's Dispatcher Re*

La Salle County

)inty Re.

Illinois State (mer.

Cetves Notice Of De*

Sheriff's Otspat.

pncy Operations Cen-ctston To Activate Je ter Is Activated cher Activates

$1rens forward Cosmand Post ls Activated Governor Governor's Of fice or WCMY/WRKI In-Cr ESCA 01 ESCA Supplies WCMY/

lttates Emergency SWithin rutor Maku De*

~

Broadcasting And WAKX (t8$) With Emer.

Dty Re.

ctston To Activate gency Broadcast Message Nottfles local Alert & Nottffca.

EBS Afftltates tio.1 $3 stem btyBoard GrunJy County Emer.

Metves gency Operations E-Center is Activated Grundy County Sher.

iff's Otspatcher Re.

Grundy County Sher.

ceives Nottce of Co.

tff s Olspatcher etston To Activate Activates $1rens Morris Emergency Op.

Grundy County Board WCMY/WRKX Int.

erstions Center Is Grundy County Soard Chairman Suppites tlates Emergency

--+

ice Activated Chairman Receives No.

/

WCMY/WRKX With Emer.

- BrudcutW W 0

"III " 8 gency Broadcast Hes.

Nottfles Local (8$

,,t sage Af flit ates Grundy County $hertff Grundy County Sher.

Receives Notice Of iff Initiates DNS Provides Recom.

g,ggston To Activate Route Alerting e

mendations Based On Independent Assess.

ment Morris Police /ftre Morris Police /Ftre Otspatcher Receives Otspatcher Initiates Not f ecision Neare$tte Emergency gogg,gg,pgg,9 Operations Center It Activated l

Corporate Command Center Is Activated 1

I

System, a state-wide warning system utilizing private wire telephone circuits, is also used by the licensee to provide a continual update on the status of a radio-logical incident and on recommended protective actions.

The Nuclear Accident Reporting System provides the capability to communicate simultaneously among all principal emergency response organizations.

The La Salle Nuclear Power Station, Illinois Emergency Services and Disaster Agency, Illinois Department of Nuclear Safety, Grundy County Sheriff, and La Salle County Sherif f utilize the Nuclear Accident Reporting System.

Procedures for the primary Emergency Broadcast System

( EB S) station, WCMY, include the recording of EBS messages as dictated by state and local representa-tives.

These recorded messages are then broadcast to the public and are relayed to nearby EBS affiliates.

?

Additionally, all Emergency Operations Centers (EOCs) have the capability to monitor EBS broadcasts.

The aforementioned exercise evaluations and the approval under 44 CFR 350 (see ref erences 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8) demonstrate that the administrative means are in place to provide prompt notification to the general public in the event of an emergency situation at the La Salle Nuclear Power Station.

B. Physical Means Of Alerting (E.6.2, FEMA-43)

The alert and notification system for the La Salle Nuclear Power Station consists of 39 fixed sirens and existing emergency / law enforcement vehicles for route alert and notification.

The 39 fixed sirens are utilized primarily within the 0-to-5 mile radius area and also to cover densely populated sections within the 9

5-to-10 mile radius area.

Existing emergen;y/ law enforcement vehicles are utilized to traverse predetermined mobile alert and notification routes within the remaining populated geographical areas of the EPZ.

1. Sirens ( E. 6.2.1, FEMA-43 )

The siren system of the La Salle Nuclear Power Station is comprised of 39 fixed sirens:

22 Federal Signal (PS) Model 1000 Thunderbolt rotational sirens rated at 125 dBC, seven FS STH10 omni-directional sirens rated at 112 dBC, two FS Model 2 omni-

)

directional sirens rated at 98 dBC, and eight FS Local Coverage omni-directional sirens (LCS) rated at 85 dB C.

Siren locations, mounting heights, ratings, and estimated ranges are shown in Table 1 of Appendix C of the Design Report.

In addition, their locations are also indicated on the Siren Contour Map (Appendix D of the Design Report).

The Design Report, as supplemented by an operational reliability statement forwarded by FEMA Region V, describes the methods by which the siren system's annual reliability is calculated.

For the 12-month period f rom May 1983 through April 1984, the overall siren system reliability level was 94.4%, exceeding the FEMA-43 acceptable value of 90%.

Siren anechoic-chamber measured octave band sound pressure spectra of the sirens (Appendices J and K of the Design Report) were used to verify their rated output at 100 f t.

The evaluation of the siren system design calculation procedure was conducted by 4

10

verifying and comparing the design calculation procedure (as presented in Section 2.4.2 of the Design Report) with outdoor Sound Propagation Model (OSPM)11 results for specific sirens.

The La Salle Nuclear Power Station siren alerting system design follows the 10 dB loss per distance doubled attenuation rate as recommended in NURDG-0654/PEMA-REP-1, Rev. 1, in the absence of intervening topographical features.

Kurz e's point source barrier attenuation formulation,12 with a cap of 24 dB maximum, was applied f or topographical features that presented barriers.

A logarithmic superposition was used when computing the locations of 70 dBC contour lines that were influenced by two sirens.

However, no credit was taken for this additive ef f ect when computing 60 dBC contours.

These procedures were applied to the system of 39 fixed sirens resulting in the Siren contour Map contained in Appendix D of the Design Report.

The Siren contour Map also depicted geographical areas with population densities greater than 2000 persons per square mile.

Population distributions based on 1980 census data were shown in Table 2.3.1 and Figure 2.3.1 of the Design Report.

The Design Report, in Section 2.4.4, further states that the design objectives were to achieve a minimum of 70 dBC coverage in areas where the population density exceeds 2000 persons por square mile and a minimum of 60 dBC in other populated areas.

The Design Report states that the La Salle nuclear Power Station airen alerting system, as depicted in combination with emergency / law enforcement vehicles A

' traversing predetermined mobile alert and notifi-cation routes, provides 100% coverage of the EPZ.

11

This evaluation seeks to ascertain whether the design procedure (with its assumptions) adequately accounts for the site-specific terrain and weather conditions and whether the ciren system an designed does indeed meet FEMA-43 acceptance criteria.

Six sirens were celected for this quality assurance i

verification review.

Three FS 1000 cirens (Nos.1, f

3, and 6A), two PS STH10 cirena (Nos. 2 and 13), and one PS LCS (No. 12) were chosen for individual siren range comparisons.

The three sirens (Non.1, 2, and

3) in Marseilles Township (see Figure 2 of this report) were chosen for superposition airen coverage eval ua tion.

Site average summer daytime weather conditions were derived f rom over 40 years of Peoria National Oceanic and Atmocpheric Administration weather data that was provided by the licensee's 8

consultant.

Appendix A contains OSPM topographical profile charts, OSPM topographical input, OSPM cound

$N proccuro level input, OSPM meteorological input, and OSPM sound pressure icvel output for each of the cix individual siren runn.

The OSPM results were classified, according to terrain profiles f or each niren type, into three categoriens hilly, partially hilly, and relatively flat.

Regressions of dBC vernun the logarithm of distance were performed for the PS 1000 and the FS STH10 airens over each terrain category with the results depicted in Figures 3 through 8 of this report.

The rangen of 70 dBC and 60 dBC as calculated in the Design Report without considering terrain barrier or two-siren additive ef f ects are alco shown on the figuren and cummarized belows s

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FIGURE 3 COMPARATIVE OSPM RESULTS, HILLY TERRAIN (FS 1000 SIREN) 100;--

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    2000, 90.00 690.00 SOFT 0.
    NO 0. O. 4 4000. 90.00 695.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 5 6000. 90.00 682.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 6 8000. 90.00 670.00 SOFT 0. YES 5900. 600. 7
    12000, 90.00 710.00 SOFT 0.
    YES 11450. 715. 8 500. 45.00 690.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 9 1000. 45.00 695.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 10 2000. 45.00 680.00 SOFT 0. YES 7600. 700. 11 4000. 45.00 710.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. 0. 12 6000. 45.00 720.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 13 8000. 45.00 685.00 SOFT 0. YES 10400. 730. 14 12000. 45.00 735.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 15 500. 0.0 675.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 16 1000. 0.0 680.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 17 2000. 0.0 650.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 18 4000. 0.0 680.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 19 6000. 0.0 670.00 SOFT 0. YES 1950. 690. 20 8000. 0.0 610.00 SOFT 0. YES 6500. 720. 21 12000. 0.0 665.00 SOFT 0. YES 4950. 700. 22 500. 315.00 675.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 23 1000. 315.00 655.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 24 2000. 315.00 650.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 25 4000. 315.00 620.00 50FT 0. NO 0. O. 26 6000.~ 315.00 655.00 SOFT 1. NO 0. O. 27 8000. 315.00 515.00 SOFT 0. YES 4950. 700. 23 12000, 315.00 570.00 SOFT 0. VES 4950. 700. 30 1000. 270.00 650.00 Sur 0. YES 6000. 655. 31 2000. 270.00 630.00 50F 0. NO 0. O. 32 4000. 270.00 580.00 SOFT 0. YES 6000. 655. 33 6000. 270.00 485.00 SCFT 0. YES 900. 670. 34 8000. 270.00 459.00 SOFT 0. YES 3500. 640. 35 12000.,,270.00 510.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 36 500. 225.00 675.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. [. l' .] l GRID SROUND FOLIAGE INTERVENINS DISTANCE TO HIGHEST HEIGHT OF FOINT_ DISTANCE BEARING HEISHT TYPE PENETRATION CBSTRUCTIONS OBSTRUCTION FROM SOURCE OBSTRUCTION 37 1000. 225.00 660.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 38 2000. 225.00 630.00 50FT 0. YES
    3500, 640.
    L 39 4000. 225.00 595.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 40 6000. 225.00 485.00 SOFT 0. YES 3500. 640. i 41 8000. 225.00 490.00 HARD 0. NO 0. O. f 42 12000. 225.00 510.00 -SOFT 0. NO 0. O. l 43 500. 180.00 685.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 44 1000. 180.00 680.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 45 2000. 180.00 680.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. [ L 46 4000. 180.00 630.00 SOFT 0. YES 1800. 650. 47 6000. 180.00 520.00 SOFT 0. YES 4000. 595. ) 48 8000. 180.00 580.00 SOFT 0. YES 2900. 680. l 49 12000. 180.00 505.00 SOFT 0. YES 2900. 680. 50 500..135.00 0.0 NO 0. 1800 0. O. l . 51 1000. 135.00 0.0 NO 0. 670. O. O. f-52 2000 135.00. 0.0 YES 0. O. O. 53 4000. -135.00 0.0 NO 0. O. O. 54 6000. 135.00 0.0 YES 0. O. O. 55 8000.~ !!5.00 0.0 NO 0. O. O. 56 12000. 135.00 0.0 YES 0. O. O. [ t I N { [ [ i, I e f l 1 ..... c ethth.:, M.:.. :... -.i ....l c.e.,.:Ph, , 't:M.i :-..: a..: :.1:..:.eI8 4 .tcl:..: :.u.:. P.r : htn >.:t-;;.v._ tN.:r;T .s rN :1-
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    12000, 45.00 648.C0 SOFT 0.
    VES 2500. 620. 15 500. 0.0 486.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 16 1000. 0.0 495.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. ' 17 2000. 0.0 $13.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 18 4000. 0.0 622.00 SCFT 0. YES 2900. 610. 19 6000. 0.0 650.00 SOFT 0. YES 2900. 610. 20 E000. 0.0 660.00 SOFT 0. VES 2900. 610. 21 12000. 0.0 647.00 SDFT 0. YES 2900.
    610, 22 500..315.00 485.00 SOFT 0.
    NO 0. O. 23 1000. 315.00 490.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 24 2000. 315.00 490.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 25 4000. 315.00 510.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 26 6000. 315.00 600.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 27 8000. 315.00 620.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 29 12000, 315.00 620.00 SOFT 0. YES 8200. 620. 29 500, 270.00 480.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 30 1000. 270.00 475.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. 0. 31 2000. 270.00 459.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 32 4000. 270.00 480.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. {I 33 6000. 270.00 .480.00 SCFT 0. NO 0. O. 34 8000. 270.00 460.00 SOFT 0. VES 7300. 475. 35 12000. 270.00 470.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 36 500. 225.00 460.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 4 / ( (. ) f l GRID SROUND FOLIAGE INTERVENING DISTANCE TO HIGHEST HE!5HT OF POINT DISTANCE BEARING HEIGHT-TYPE PENETRATICN OBSTRUCTIONS DBSTRUCTION FROM SOURCE OBSTRUCTION l ' 37 1000. 225.00 459.00 HARD 0. NO 0. O. 38 2000. ~225.00 484.00 SOFT 0. -YES 1600. 500. 39 4000. 225.00 500.0.0 SOFT 0. ' NO 0. O. 40 6000. 225.00 515.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 41 8000.. 225.00 670.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 42 .12000. 225.00 660.00 SOFT 0. YES 8200. 670. 43 500. 180.00 459.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. l 44 1000. 180.00 459.00 HARD 0. NO 0. O. 45 2000. 160.00 490.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 46 4000. 180.00 500.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. 6. '47 .6000. 180.00 570.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 48 9000. -180.00 590.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 49 12000. 180.00 630.00 SOFT 0. YES 9500. 645. 50 500. 135.00 570.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 51 1000. 135.00 459.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 52 2000. 135.00 459.00 HARD 0. NO 0. 0, 53 4000.- !!5.00 484.00' SOFT 0. VES 3400. 500. 54 6000. 135.00 500.00 SOFT
    0..
    NO 0. O. 55 0000. !!5.00 510.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 56 12000. 135.00 510.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. I 1 i 0 ( -a COMMONWEALTH EDISCN CCMPANY LASALLE ANS SIREN 82 a NOISE SCURCE F0WER LEVEL INPUT INDEI SOURCE DBA, DBC 31.5 63 125 150 500 1000 2000 4000 8000 (NZ) i~ t SIREN 2-STH10 151.'6 - 152.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 151.0 146.0 143.0 '140.0 138.0 1C= 0.0 YO= 0.0 Z0= 523.00 HEIGHT AE0VE GROUND = 40.00 COMMONWEALTH EDISCN COMPANY LASALLE ANS SIREN #2 METECR0 LOGICAL IhPUT CONDITIONS H1= 10.06 METERS H2= 100.58 METERS WIND WIND SPEED (MPS) TEMPERATURE (C) RELATIVE BAROMETRIC YEAR SEASON MONTH ~ DATE HOUR O!RECTION Hi H2 Hi H2 HUMIDITY PRESSURE (MM OF H6) 1983 - S 7 1 12 180.0 3.7 5.2 25.0 24.4 70.0 744.0 t I (. [ t t P COMMONNEALTH EDISON COMPANY LASALLE ANS SIREN 02 SIREN SOUND LEVELS IN EBC UNDER MET CONDITION 1-DISTANCE IN FEET AZIMUTH 500. 1000. 2000.
    4000, 6000.
    8000. 12000. E' 100. 91. St. 73. 69. 66. 61. NE 100. 91. St. ' 64. 60. 57. 49. N ' 100.. 91. 81. 67, 62. 58. 51. NW 100. 91. 91. 73. 69. 66. 54. W 100. 91. 81. 73. 69. 61. 61. SW - 100. 94 75. 71. 64. 66. 52. - S 100. 94. 81. 72. 69. 66. 53. SE 100. 92. 84. 65. 61..
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    (- COMMONNEALTH EDIS01 COMFANY l LASALLE ANS S!REN 13 SclatCE-RECEIVER TCFCSRAPHICAL INPUTS ALL BEARINGS ARE WITH RESPECT TO THE NORTH MEASURING CLOCKWISE SRID GROUND FOLIA 6E INTERVENING DISTANCE TO H16kEST HEIGHTOF FOINT DISTANCE EEARING HEIGHT TYPE FENETRATION OBSTRUCT!DNS CBSTRUCTION FROM SOURCE OBSTRUCT!GN 500. 90.00 495.00 SOFT 0. MO 0. O. 2 1000. 90.00 $10.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. 0. 3 2000. 90.00 512.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. o. 4

    4000, 90.00 515.00 SOFT 0.

    NO 0. O. 5 6000. 90.00 550.00 SOFT 0. VES 5900. 575. 6

    8000, 90.00 600.00 SOFT 0.

    YES 7850. 610. 7 12000. 90.00 608.00 SOFT 0. VES 7850. 610. 9 500. 45.00 498.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 9 1000. 45.00 503.00 SOFT 0. 10 0. C. ( 10 2000. 45.00 530.00 SCFT 0. NO 0. O. 11

    4000, 45.00 600.00 SOFT 0.

    NO 0, 0. 12 6000. 45.00 652.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 13 8000. 45.00 678.00 SOFT 0. YES 7100. 680. 14 12000. 45.00 720.00 SOFT 0. YES 7100. 680. l 15 500. 0.0 500.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. 0. ( 16 1000. 0.0 500.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 17 2000. 0.0 590.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 18 4000. 0.0 660.00 SOFT 0. YES 3800. 640. r 19 6000. 0.0 660.00 SOFT 0. VES

    3800, 640.

    ( 20 9000. 0.0 650.00 SOFT 0. YES !800. 440. 21 12000. 0.0 710.00 SOFT 0. YES 3800. 640. 22 500. 315.00 493.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 23 1000. 315.00 493.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. 0. 24 2000. 315.00 497.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. 0. 25 4000. 315.00 590.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. 0. 26 6000. 315.00 620.00 SOFT 0. VES 5700. 660. 27 0000. 315.00 590.00 SOFT 0. YES 5700. 660. 28 12000. 315.00 590.00 SOFT 0. VES 5700. 660. 29 500. 270.00 493.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 30 1000. 270.00 493.00 SCFT 0. NO 0. O. 31 2000. 270.00 493.00 SOFT 4. NO 0. 0. 32 4000. 270.00 490.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. 0. 33 6000. 270.00 490.00 HARD 0. NO 0. O. 34 8000. 270.00 486.00 SOFT 0. YES 8000. 500. 35 12000. 270.00 495.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 36 500. 225.00 493.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. F

    I l 6 RID GROUND FOL!A6E INTERVENIN6 DISTANCE TO HIGHEST HE!6HT OF POINT O! STANCE BEARING HE!SHT TYPE PENETRATION OBSTRUCTIONS OBSTRUCTION FROM SOURCE OBSTRUCTION 37' IMO. 225.00 484.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 38 2000. 225.00 486.00 HARD 0. NO 0. O. 39-4MO. 225.00 504.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 40 6000. 225.00 515.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 41 8000. 225.00 5:8.00 SOFT 0. YES 7700. 600. 42 12000. 225.00 675.00 SOFT 0. YES !!900. 675. 43 500. 180.00 493.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 44 1000. 180.00 484.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 45 2000. 180.00 484.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. 0. 46 4000. 180.00 504.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 47 6000. 180.00 $15.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 48 8000. 180.00 640.00 SOFT 0. YES 7000. 630. 49 12000, 180.00 662.00 SOFT 0. YES 9800. 690. 50 500. 135.00 490.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 51 1000. 135.00 486,00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 52 2000. 135.00 484.00 HARD 0. NO 0. O. [ 53 4000. !!5.00 484.00 HARD 0. NO 0. O. 5 54 6000. 135.00 490.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. L 55 0000. 135.00 496.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 56 12000. 135.00 530.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. ( ( C

    l i i COMONuERTH EDl!ON COMPANY 6 LASRLE ANS SIREN 03 NOISE SU'JRCE PCNER LEVEL INPUT l l INDE1 SOURCE 084 DBC 31.5 63 125 250 500 1000 2000 4000 8000 (HZ) 1 SIREN 3-1000A 165.9 167.9 0.0 0.0 ' O.0 0.0 167.0 !!8.0 157.0 150.0 148.0 10= 0.0 Y0s 0.0 Z0= 543.00 HEIGHT ABOVE GROUND = 50.00 l C0m0 HEALTH EDISDN COMPANY LASALLE ANS SIREN 03 METEOROLOGICAL INPUT CONDITICNS H1= 10.06 METERS H2= 100.58 METERS N!ND WIND SPEED (MPS) TEMPERATURE (C) RELATIVEBAR0 METRIC YEAR SEASON MONTH DATE HOUR DIRECTION H1 H2 H1 H2 HUMIDITY FRESSURE(m 0F H6) 1993 S 7 1 12 100.0 3.7 5.2 25.0 24.4 70.0 744.0 l I h 3 1 L

    ( CCitMONhEALTH EDISDN CCMPANY .LASALLE ANS SIREN 03 SIREN SOUND LEVELS IN DBC UNDER MET COND1 TION 1 { DISTANCE IN FEET AllMUTH $00. 1000.

    2000, 4000.

    6000. 8000. 12000. E 116.. 106. 98. 91. 73. 76. 71. NE !!6. 106. 98. 91. 88. 77. 70. N 116. 107. 98. 83. St. 75. 69. NW !16. 107. 98. 91. 72. 71. 65. W 116. 107. 98. 91. 69. 63. 77. SW !!6. 107. 102. 91. 82. 62. 72. S !!6.

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    l C2MM2NWEALTH EDIS2N CCf,PANf LASALLE ANS !!REN 06A SOURCE-RECEIVER TCPCSRAPHICAL INFUTS ALL EEARINSS AicE WITH RESPECT TO ThE NORTH PEASURINS CLOCrk!SE GRID GRDUND FOLIAEE INTER'iENINS DISTANCE TO HIGHEST HEIGHT OF ( F0!NT 0! STANCE EEARINS HE!SHT TYFE PENETRATION 0!STRUCT10NS OBSTRUCTION FROM SOURCE OSSTRUCTION 1 500. 90.00 730.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 2 1000. 90.00 725.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 3 2000. 90.00 725.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 4

    4000, 90.00 725.00 SOFT 0.

    NO 0. O. 5 6000. 90.00 712.00 SOFT 0. NO 0, 0, 6 2000. 90.00 722.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. 6 7 12000. 90.00 705.00 SOFT 0. YES

    7300, 722.

    B 500. 0.0 720.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. l 9 1000. 0.0 720.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. L 10 2000. 0.0 717.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 11

    4000, 0.0 700.00 SOFT 0.

    NO 0. O. r 12 6000. 0.0 685.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. [ 13 9000. 0.0 677.00 SOFT 0. YES 7200. 680. 14 12000. 0.0 692.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 15 500, 270.00 718.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 16 1000. 270.00 710.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 17 2000. 270.00 695.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 19 4000. 270.00 690.00 SOFT 0. ND 0. O. r 19 6000. 270.00 680.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. [ 20 E000. 270.00 662.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 21 12000. 270.00 645.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 22 500. 180.00 725.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. l 23 1000. 190.00 725.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 24 2000. 120.00 725.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 25 4000. 120.00 705.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 26 6000. 190.00 695.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. L 27 2000. 190.00 700.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 28 12000. 180.00 677.00 SOFT 0. VES 9500. 710. I l [ L r

    s f f CCMMONhEALTH EDISCN CCMPMY LASALLE ANS SIREN 96A NOISE SOURCE POWER LEVEL INPUT f-l INDEI SOURCE DBA DBC 31.5 63 125 250 500 1000 2000 4000 8000 (NZ) & !!REN 64-10004 165.9 167.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 167.0 !!8.0 157.0 150.0 148.0 10s 0.0 YO= 0.0 Z0= 751.00 HEIGHT ABOVE GROUNDS 26.00 COMMONWEALTH EDISCN COMP M Y LASALLE ANS S!REN 06A l METEOROLC61 CAL INPUT CONDIT!CNS l Hl= : 10.06 METERS-H2= 100.56 METERS WIND WIND SPEED (MPS) TEMPERATURE (C) RELATIVE SAR0 METRIC ) EAR SEASON MONTH DATE HOUR DIRECTION H! H2 Hi H2 HUMIDITY PRESSURE ( M OF H6) ~1993 5 7 1 12 190.0 3.7 5.2 25.0-24.4 70.0 744.0 i L- \\ ( L.

    t [ COM 0 HEALTH ELIS0N COMFANY LASALLE ANS S!REN 16A { SIREN SOUND LEVELS IN DEC UNDER f!ET CONDITION 1 I L DISTANCE IN FEET AZIMUTH 500. 1000. 2000. 4000. 6000. 8000. 1:000. E 115. 105. 94. 64. 90. 77. 73. N 116. 105. 94. 64. 60. 73. 73. d 116. 105. 94. 84. 80. 77. 73. 5 116. 105. 94. 80. 70. 63. 48. { I L s P [

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    is' L COMMONNEALTHEDISONCOMPANY LASALLE ANS S!REN 012 r [ SOURCE-RECEIVER TOPOSRAPHICAL INFUTS ALL BEARINGS ARE WITH RESPECT TO THE NORTH MEASURING CLOCKNISE 6 RID GROUhD FDLIAGE INTERVENIN6 DISTANCE TO HIGHEST HEIGHT OF POINT DISTANCE BEARING HE!SHT TYPE PENETRATION CBSTRUCTIONS OBSTRUCTION FROM SOURCE DBSTRUCTION 500. 90.00 670.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 2 1000. 90.00 670.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 3 2000. 90.00 665.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. 0. 4 4000. 90.00 662.00 SOFT 0. NO 0, 0. 5 6000. 90.00 650.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 6 -8000. 90.00 653.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 7 12000. 90.00 650.00 SOFT 0. YES 10800. 655. 1 l [ L-

    [ COMMONiEALTH EDISQN COMPANf LASALLE ANS SIREN 812 NO!SE SOURCE POWER LEVEL IkPUT INCEI SOURCE DBA Dic 31.5 63 125 250 500 1000 2000 4000 E000 (HI) 1 SIREN 12-LCS1 !!6.6 135.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 131.0 134.0 111.0 114.0 10= 0.0 YO= 0.0 Z0= 704.00 HEIGHT AiDVE GR00ND= 35.00 ( CCMMONWEALTH EDISCN COMPANY LASALLE ANS SIREN 812 METEOROLOGICAL INPUT CCNDITIONS H1= 10.06 METERS H2= 100.58 METERS f WIND WIND SPEED (MPS) TEMPERATURE (C) RELATIVE EAR 0 METRIC YEAR SEASON MONTH DATE HOUR DIRECTION H1 H2 H1 H2 HUMIDITY rRESSURE(MM 0F H6) 1983 7 1 12 180.0 3.7 5.2 25.0 24.4 70.0 744.0 t [ [ f

    s f L COMCNWEALTH EDISON COMPANY LASALLE AMS SIREN 812 SIREN SOUND LEVEL 3 IN DBC UNDER MET CONDITION 1 DISTANCE IN FEET A!!MUTH 500. 1000. 2000. 4000. 6000. 8000. 12000. E 82. 74. 62. 46. 35. 29. 21. 1 ( ( [ f._

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    4 r 6 Y CCMOhWEALTH EDIECN CCMPANY LASALLE ANS SIREN 013 SOURCE-RECEIVER TCP0 GRAPHICAL INPUTS [ ALL EEARINGS ARE WITH RESFECT TO THE NORTH MEASURING CLOCKWISE l GRID GROUND FOLIAGE INTERVENING DISTANCE TO HISHEST HEIGHT OF r l F0!NT DISTANCE BEARINS HE!EHT TYFE PENETRATION OBSTRUCTIONS OBSTRUCTION FROM SOURCE 05STRUCTION 1 500. 90.00 500.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 2 1000. 90.00 500.00 SCFT 0. NO 0. O. 3 2000. 90.00 505.00 SCFT 0. NO 0. O. 4 4000. 90.00 510.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 5

    6000, 90.00 510.00 SCFT 0.

    NO 0. O. 6 8000. 90.00 500.00 SOFT 0. YES 7900. 510. 7 12000. 90.00 580.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 8 500. 0.0 500.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 9 1000. 0.0 495.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 10 2000. 0.0 515.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 11

    4000, 0.0 630.00 SOFT 0.

    YES 4000. 630. 12 6000. 0.0 640.00 SOFT 0. YES 4000.

    630, 13 8000.

    0.0 640.00 SOFT 0. VES

    4000, 6:0.

    14 12000. 0.0 650.00 SOFT 0. YES 7000. 530. 15 500. 270.00 500.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 16 1000. 270.00 500.00 SOFT 0, NO 0. O. 17 2000. 270.00 500.00 SOFT 0. NO 0, 0. 18 4000. 270.00 505.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 19 6000. 270.00 515.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 20 8000. 270.00 $25.00 SOFT 0. YES

    7000, 5:0, 21 12000. 270.00 484.00 HARD 0.

    YES 4900. 500. 22 500. 180.00 510.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 23 1000. 180.00 505.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. 0. 24 2000. 180.00 505.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. 25 4000. 180.00 505.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. O. r 26 6000. 180.00 484.00 SOFT 0. YES 9600. 600. [ 27 8000. 180.00 530.00 SOFT 0. NO 0. 0. 28 12000. 180.00 6:5.00 SOFT 0. YES 9600. 600. [ r f (

    CCMMONWEALTH EDISON COMPANY LASALLE ANS SIREN 813 NOISE SOURCE POWER LEVEL INPUT IN;EI SCURCE DBA, DEC 31.5 63 125 250 500 1000 2000 4000 8000 (HZ) 1 SIREN 13-STH10 151.6 152.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 151.0 146.0 143.0 140.0 !!2.0 XC= 0.0 YO= 0.0 10= 545.00 HEIGHT ABOVE GROUND = 45.00 COMMONWEALTH EDISDN COMPANY LASALLE ANS SIREN 013 METEOROLOGICAL INPUT CONDITIONS H1= 10.06 METEFS H2= 100.58 METERS WIND WIND SPEED (MPS) TEMPERATURE (C) RELATIVE PAR 0 METRIC YEAR SEASON MONTH DATE HOUR DIRECTION H1 H2 H1 H2 HUMIDITY PRES 5URE(MM 0F HG) 1983 S 7 1 12 180.0 3.7 5.2 25.0 24.4 70.0 744.0 r

    r-- P k CCP.MCNhEALTH EDISCN CCMPANY LASALLE ANS SIREN 013 SIREN SCLND LEVELS IN EEC UNDER P.ET CCNDITICN 1 r l DISTAhCE IN FEET AZIMUTH 500. 1000. 2000. 4000. 6000. 9000. 12000. E 100. 91. 82. 74 70. 59. 61. N 100. 92. 82. 69. 64. 60. 50. W 100. 91. 82. 74. 70. 63. 55. S 100. 91. 82. 74. 40. 67. 55. 4

    APPENDIX B Sample Size Determination

    APPENDIX B SAMPLE SIZE DETERMINATION The number of households that need to be surveyed is determined based upon the need to obtain a sample size sufficient to obtain a 95% confidence interval with precision (half-width) of 0.05 for the estimate of the porportion alerted. The exact number of households to be surveyed can be derived from the following statistical considerations. For relatively large sample sizes (n 2 30), taken without replacement from a population (N), the sampling distribution for proportions (e.g., the proportion of the population alerted) is nearly a normal distribution, the mean of which is the proportion (p) of the population alerted and the variance of which is ~" p(1 - p)/n If P is the observed sample proportion, then for a particular confidence level with confidence coefficient Zet (P - p) $Z p(1 - p)/n [ Thus, for this confidence level, the actual proportion of the population alerted satisfies the following inequalities: 2 I 2 I N-n\\ c N-n P (1 - P) N-n c p, 2n (N - lj (N - if ' 2 N - if c n S p ad c N-n n N-1 1

    N-n\\ P(1 - P) N-n\\ N-n\\ c c p 2n N - if (N-1/ 2 N - 1/ c n PS 2 c N-n n N-1 Thus, the precision (W) is simply given by [N-n P(1 - P) c N-n Z n (N - 1/ 4n \\ / ~ w-2 E I I c N-n (N - lj n This equation can be solved to determine the sample size (n) required to yield a given precision (W) with a given observed sample proportion (P) as follows: ,, 2 P(1 - P) - 2W + W l - 4P(1 - P) +P (1 - P) 2 2w n- ,~ ~ l+ P(1 - P) - 2W l+ + W l - 4P(1 - P) +P (1 - P) 2 2 2w 3 Z j Although this expression for n can be used directly, it is customary to make several approximations. First, since the term in N in the denominator (the finite population term) is positive definite for all reasonable values of W (0 < W < 0.5), omitting this term will result in an approximation to n that is slightly i larger than its true value. This is an acceptable practice in sizing the sample since a larger sample gives greater precision. 2

    A second approximation that can be made is to neglect the terms l in W2 within the bracket in the numerator. Analysis demonstrates that this underestimates n when P < 1/2 - 1/4 M 2 + 8W2 or P > 1/2 + 1/4 Y2+8W2 and overestimates n for P between l those two values. For the case of interest (a 95% confidence interval with precision of 0.05), this approximation provides an overestimation of n when a sample size greater than 191 is required. Since the sampling plan calls for a minimum sample size of 250, regardless of the value of P, this approximation is acceptable because it also yields an estimate of n larger than the true value. Therefore, for the purposes of the pilot test and subsequent surveys, the following approximate equation can i be used to determine whether a sample size larger than 250 is required: I 2 3 n= P (1 - P) or using 1.96 for Z and 0.05 for W, e n = 1536.64 P(1 - P) Data from the pilot test can be used to illustrate the effects of these approximations. In the pilot test, the population of tone alert households f rom which the sample was to be drawn (N) was approximately 4500 and the observed proportion alerted (P) was 0.675. This yields 311 as the exact result for n. Neglecting the finite population term yields an estimate of 334 for n, and the simplified final approximation estimates n as 338. Thus, the final simplified approximation overestimates the required sample size by 27 in this case. SOURCE: International Energy Associates Limited. " Analysis of Tone Alert Pilot Test." IEAL-321. September 27, 1983. 3 _}}