ML20116D956
| ML20116D956 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Hope Creek  |
| Issue date: | 04/30/1985 |
| From: | Public Service Enterprise Group |
| To: | |
| Shared Package | |
| ML20116D946 | List: |
| References | |
| NUDOCS 8504300135 | |
| Download: ML20116D956 (19) | |
Text
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HOPE CREEK GENERATING STATION MONITORING OF LNG AND LPG SHIPPING AND CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITIES ON THE DELAWARE RIVER 8504300135 850419 PDR ADOCK 05000354
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PDR Docket Nos. 50-354 50-355 M P83.4/18 1-df April 1985
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
- 1.
SUMMARY
- 2. INTRODUCTION
- 3. YEARLY REPORT 3.1 Total Number of Ships Per Year 3.2 Construction Activity
- 4. BI-YEARLY REPORT 4.1 Calculation of Conditional Probability 4.1.1 Accident Rate Per Ship Mile 4.1.2 Historical Collision Analysis FY81-FY82 4.1.3 Collisions With Fixed Objects 4.1.4 Spills Per Accident 4.1.5 Vapor Cloud Formation Per Spill 4.1.6 Meteorological Factor 4.1.7 Conditional Probability Calculation 4.2 Conclusions M P83 4/18 2-df
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- 1.
SUMMARY
On November 4, 1974, the Atomic Energy Commission issued a Construction Permit (CP) for the construction of the Hope Creek Generating Station in Salem County, New Jersey.
The Hope Creek site is located on the Delaware River estuary near the southern end of an artificial peninsula known as Artificial Island.
. Amendment No. S to the Construction Permit requires PSE&G to monitor activities related to the shipment of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) on the Delaware River. This monitoring includes shipping rates of liquefied flammable gases and various types of construction activity. The chemicals classi-fied as liquefied flammable gases are propane, butane, butadiene , vinyl chloride and licuefied natural gas.
The results of this study show that the total condi-E " ** "N tional probability the Hope Creek of a flammableis 9.5 x 10-8 plant f *or 1982 and 2.1 x 10-7 for 1983. The 1982 figure is approximately ten times and the 1983 value is approximately five times
-lower than the 10-6 value established as an upper limit by the NRC, based on conservative assumptions. There-f ore , the associated hazards to the health and safety of the public are negligible .
- 2. INTRODUCTION The activities of interest are those which might result in an increased rate of shipping or which could cause an increased probability of accident occurrence.
An increase in the shipping rate would occur either should an existing f acility increase its importation rate or because of the construction of a new storage or refining facility. PSE&G has monitored these events by keeping in touch with local authorities, contacting those refineries and import terminals on the Delaware River which are capable of receiving liquid fuels and by ,
reviewing the "Public Notices" issued by the Department of the Army "U .S. Corps of Engineers."
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Although there is currently no LNG shipping on the river, there have been proposals to initiate such shipping. All have either been withdrawn or re-jected by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). Consequently, there are currently no out-standing proposals for an LNG f acility that could possibly affect the Hope Creek Generating Station.
PSE&G is continuously monitoring the applications received by FERC relating to LNG tenninals .
Other types of construction on the Delaware River could also result in increased risk to the Hope Creek Generating S tation. It has been estbnated (PSE&G, Dockets 50-354 and 50-355 before the NRC, exhibits 9, 10, 11) that a flammable vapor cloud which forms as a result of an accidental spill of a liquid fuel on water could travel up to 12 miles .
Therefore, any spill occurring within a distance of 12 miles up or downstream of the nuclear facility has to be analyzed to determine if it presents a potential hazard to the plant. Curre ntly , with the exception of Tower 97* and a submerged shipwreck, there are no rammable objects in the vicinity of the shipping channel near Hope Creek. However, in the f uture , docks , j etties , moorings , piles, or other potential obstructions could be constructed in the river. Therefore, PSE&G is monitoring cons truc tion activity of this type.
The calculation of the probability of a flammable cloud reaching the Hope Creek plant is made from a series of conditional probabil'ities. These proba-bilities involve the expected number of accidents per mile of river transit, the probability that a spill will result given that an accident has occu rred , the probability that a vapor cloud will form given that there has been a spill, and the me teorological factor.
The NRC has established guidelines for the accept-able upper limit of the probability that the Hope Creek Generating Station will be affected by a flam-mable vapor cloud formed as a result of an accident on the river. In an estimate in which the factors- pc are determined based on conservative appr the number of incidents cannot exceed 10 gximations, per year.
- Electrical Transmission Line Tower i
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O HOPE CREEK GENERATING STATION MONITORING OF LNG AND LPG SHIPPING AND CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITIES ON THE DELAWARE RIVER
- 3. YEARLY REPORT - 1983 (YR-5)
Docket Nos. 50-354 M . P83 4/18 5.*-df April 1985
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3.1 Total Number of Ships Per Year The total number of ships passing by the nuclear plant in 1983 and carrying each of the designated chemicals was developed by Poten & Partners, Inc.
a shipping consultant. The data were derived from U.S. Coast Guard Records, Im port and: Export Rec-ords,_and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The lists presented in Tables l A and IB specify the discharge / load date , _ quantity, product , vessel, origin / destination and , where possible , the importer / exporter. This information is summarized in Table 2, and graphically presented on Figures 1 through 5. As indicated , the total number of tankers passing by the plant was lower in 1981 and 1982 than in previous years but it went up in 1983 mainly due to increased (a) im port of butadiene, and (b) export of propane. A lower freight cost contributed greatly to the increased traffic. A higher demand in the world market also played a
, major role in the export of propane.
Also , the shipments of vinyl chloride have ceased .
This is dte to the fact that the manufacturing facility, located in Puerto Rico, from which the vinyl chloride was being imported , went out of business.
3.2 Construction Activity, The construction activity . along the Delaware River was monitored through the review of "Public Notices" issued by the U.S. Army Corps. of Eng i-neers, by _ contacting various f acilities located ups tream of the plant (see Table 3 and Figure 6 )
and the Federal Energy Regulation Commission, which is responsible for reviewing and approving any pro-posals f or construction of LNG terminals.
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O LIQUEFIELD GAS CARGOS TRANSITING THE DELAWARE RIVER - 1983 TABLE 1A: IMPORT CARGOS '
DISCHARGE QUANTITY -
DATE (METRIC TONS) PRODUCT VESSEL ORIGIN IMPORTER 1/19/83 2,066 Butadiene Pascal Belgium Exxon Chemical j 1/19/83 6,268 Butadiene Pascal France Exxon Chemical i
2/22/83 1,170 Butadiene Coral Temse France Exxon Chemical 2/22/83 987 Butadiene Coral Temse France Exxon Chemical I
4/06/83 1,569 Butadiene Vestri United Kingdom ICI Americas i 4/06/83 1,775 Butadiene Vestri Belgium Exxon Chemical 4/16/83 1,977 Butad iene Igloo Polar France Exxon Chemical f 5/02/83 5,103 Anhydrous Ammonia Antilla Cape Columbia
. 5/20/83 3,060 Butadiene Kurt Illies Netherlands Dow Chemical i 5/20/83 1,040 Butadiene Kurt Illies Belgium Exxon Chemical 1
6/08/83 2,800 Butadiene Coral Temse United Kingdom ICI Americas 6/29/83 9,070 Anhydrous Ammonia M.P. Grace Trinidad
- 6/30/83 3,077 Butadiene Vestri Netherlands- Dow Chemical 6/30/83 1,774 Butadiene Vestri Spain Dow Chemical l 7/24/83 1,222 Butadiene Coral Temse Belgium Exxon Chemical 7/24/83 1,523 Butadiene Coral Temse France Exxon Chemical 8/10/83 6,346 Anhydrous Ammonia Joseph P. Grace Trinidad l 8/16/83 1,693 Butadiene Heros Belgium Exxon Chemical 8/16/83 3,522 Butadiene Heros Belgium Dow Chemical 8/28/83 1,786 Butadiene Coral Temse Belgium Exxon Chemical i
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LIQUEFIELD GAS CARGOS TRANSITING THE DELAWARE RIVER - 1983 .
TABLE lA: IMPORT CARGOS (Cont'd)
DISCHARGE QUANTITY DATE (METRIC TONS) PRODUCT VESSEL ORIGIN IMPORTER 9/09/83 1,570 Butad iene Pascal United Kingdom ICI Americas 9/29/83 2,400 Butadiene Igloo Norse United Kingdom Exxon Chemical 10/05/83 2,584 Bu tadiene Igloo Finn Spain Dow Chemica1 10/22/83 1,826 Ba tad iene Helice Ne the rla nds Exxon-Chemical 10/22/83 1,724 Butadiene Helice Netherlands Dow Chemical 10/23/83 996 Butad iene Hespe rus Netherlands 10/29/83 14,500 Butane Garala Saudi Arabia Sun 10/31/83 10,498 Butane Faraday France Gulf Oil 11/01/83 8,654 Anhydrous Ammonia Joseph P. Grace Trinidad 11/18/83 2,139 Butadiene Coral Temse Belgium Exxon Chemical 11/22/83 1,584 Butad iene Tycho Brahe United Kingdom BP 11/21/83 11,086 Butane Devonshire Saudi Arabia Sun / Gulf Oil 11/21/83 2,113 Butane Devonshire Saudi AraDia Sun / Gulf Oil 12/08/83 4,785 Bu tad iene Enricho Fermi Italy Enichem 12/13/83 9,257 Butane Centum Saudi Arabia Warren Petroleum 12/15/83 2,100 Butad iene Igloo Finn Belgium Exxon Chemical 12/29/83 8,435 Anhydrous Ammonia M. P. Grace Trinidad M P83 4/18 7.1-df
o-LIQUEFIELD GAS CARGOS TRANSITING THE DELAWARE RIVER -~ 1983
TABLE IB: EXPORT CARGOS LOAD QUANTITY DATE , (METRIC TONS) PRODUCT VESSEL DESTINATION EXPORTER 2/15/83 4,000 Propane Kurt Illies Europe Sun 2/23/83 4,000 Propane Coral Temse Europe Sun 2/25/83 8,000 Propane Svend Maersk Fra nce Sun 3/15/83 4,000. Propane Kurt Illies Europe Sun 4/10/83 8,000 LPG Susan Maersk Caribbe an Sun for Tra ns hipme nt 5/05/83 4,000 LPG Coral Temse Europe Sun 9/20/83 10,000 Propane Sally Maersk Lisbon Sun 11/25/83 1,897 LPG Tropigas Far East Caribbean Sun 12/29/83 2,414 LPG Tropigas Far Eas t Caribbean Sun M P83 4/18 7.2-df
Table 2 Sumary of Liquid Gas Ships Total Nunter of Ships Vinyl Year Propane Butane Butadiene Chloride LNG Total 1977 1 10 10 25 0 46 1978 5 10 1 25 0 41 1979 1 10 13 0 0 24 1980 2 9 12 0 0 23 1981 3 8 6 0 0 17 1982 0 8 6 0 0 14 1983 9 4 19 0 0 32 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989
! 1990 i
! 1991 l 1992 1 1993
} 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
, 1999
'i 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 i P83 4/18 8.*-df
Table 2 - Summary of Liquid Gas Ships (Cont'd)
Total Nutuber of Ships Vinyl Year Propane Butane Butadiene Chloride LNG Total 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 202d 2029 2030 M P83 4/18 9.*-df
The focus of our review of construction activity was on the following:
e
- a. Have any LNG or LPG facilities been licensed on the Delaware River?
- b. Have any new docking facilities been authorized which might result in an increase in transportation of pro-pane, butane, butadiene, or vinyl chloride?
- c. Has the construction of any rammable objects in or near the shipping channel in the 24 mile catchment distance near Hope Creek been proposed or authorized?
! An ongoing activity, which has no impact on the nuclear power pl&nt, is the dredging of the river in front of Arti-i fici.al Island, on which the plant is located. This activity is sponsored by Public Service Electric and Gas.
3.3 Conclusions Based on our review of "Public Notices" issued by the U.S.
Army: Corps of Engineers, responses to inquiry letters sent
' to the facilities listed in Table 3, and Federal Energy Regulatory Commission notices, we conclude that no new or proposed construction which would have an effect on the cal-culation of the probability of a flammable fuel vapor cloud reaching the Hope Creek Nuclear Generating Station has ap-parently been authorized.
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Table 3 LPG Facilities located on the Delaware River ARCO Marine Foot of Island Road Philadelphia, PA 19153
> (215) 339-2632 British Petroleum Oil Company Marcus Hook, PA 19061 (215) 494-3600 British Petroleum Oil Company Paulsboro, NJ 08066 (609) 423-4000 Cities Services Company Box 300 Tulsa, Oklahoma 74102 (918) 586-2211 Getty Oil Company Delaware City, Delaware 19706 Gulf Oil Company Girard Point, Pa. 19145 (215) 389-3500 4
Mantua Chemicals Terminal, Inc.
Crown Point Road Thorofare, New Jersey 08086 (609) 423-5400 Mobil Oil Company Paulsboro, New Jersey 08066 (609) 423-1307 M P83 4/18 lldf
Table 3 - continued Sun. Oil Company Marcus Hook, Pa. 19061 (215) 447-1244 l
Texaco 011 Company !
Eagle Point, New Jersey 08093 l (609) 845-8000 '
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FIGURE 1 NUMBER OF SHIPS TRANSPORTING PROPANE 40 35-30-25-k W
20-l2 i
vi 15 -
10 -
t 5-0, , , , , , , ,
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 YEAR
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FIGURE 2 NUMBER OF SHIPS TRANSPORTING BUTANE 40 35-30-25-k W
m y 20-T i
Ln 15 -
10 -
5-0 , , , , , , , ,
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 YEAR 9
- . _ ,_ _.-y - - - , . . - - _ _. . _ _ . , - _ - - _ _ , _ _
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FIGURE 3 NUMBER OF SHIPS TRANSPORTING BUTADIENE 40 1 1
35-30-25-k W
20-if i
(n 15 -
10 -
L 5-1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 YEAR L
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FIGURE 4 NUMBER OF SHIPS TRANSPORTING VINYL CHLORIDE 40 35-30-25- -
k W
20-
[
15 -
10 -
5-1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 YEAR
9 9
FIGURE 5 NUMBER OF SHIPS TRANSPORTING LNG 40 35-30-25-x x
y 20-if i
tn 15 -
10 -
5-I l l l I I O $
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 YEAR l
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