Text

Evacuation Time Estimates within Plume Exposure Pathway Emergency Planning Zone for Byron Nuclear Generating Station
	ML20095B416
Person / Time
Site:	Byron
Issue date:	06/30/1984
From:	; COMMONWEALTH EDISON CO.
To:	;
Shared Package
ML20095B411	List: ML20095B408; ML20095B416;
References
	NUDOCS 8408220112
	Download: ML20095B416 (113)
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[ EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

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[ COMMONWEALTH EDISON COMPANY JUNE 1984

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s EVACUATION TIltE ESTIMATES

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WITHIN THE PLUME EXPOSURE PATHWAY EMERGENCY PLANNING ZONE

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1*/ TABLE OF CONIENTS Section Title Page 1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . .. .1-1 1.1 PURPOSE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1-1

,. .1.2

SUMMARY

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1-2 1.3 SCOPE . ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1-5 2 EMERGENCY PLANNING ZONE AND EVACUATION SCENARIOS . .. . . . . .2-1 1 2.1 EVACUATION STUDY AREAS . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . .2-1

1. r .2.2 PRIMARY EVACUATION ZONES . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . .2-2 1 (O 2.3 EVACUATION SCENARIOS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-3 3 DEMOGRAPHIC AND VEHICLE DATA . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . .3-1 3.1 SUMMER SEASON POPULATION DATA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ~.3-4 ,

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.3.1.1 3.1.2 Summer Daytime Data .

Summer Nighttime Data

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.3-4 3.2 . WINTER SEASON POPULATION DATA.3 . . . . . . . .. . .. . .3-5 3.2.1 Winter Daytime Data . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . .3-5 3.2.2 Winter Nighttime Data . . . . . . . . . . .. . . .

.3-5 3.3 TRANSIENT AND SPECIAL FACILITIES PCPULATION DATA . . . . .3-6

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( 3.4 SPECIAL EVENTS POPULATIONS . . . . . . . . . .. . . . .

4 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS . . . . . .4-1 4.1 GENERAL POPULATION EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES .. . . . . 4-1 4.1.1 Evacuation Time Estimates Methodology . . . . . 4-1 4.1.2 ..Public Response Times and Network ,

' Loading Rates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .b. . 4-3 4.1.3 ' Assumptions Used in. Developing the Evacuation Time Estimates . . > . . . . . . . .. . . . . .4-6

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' TABLE OF CONTENTS (Cont)

[~ . Section. Title Page y 4.2 SELECTED SPECIAL FACILITIES EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS .. . . . . . .. . . . . . 4-9

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4.3 SPECIAL EVENT EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS' . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .... . 4-11

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5 EVACUATION ROAD NETWORK DESCRIPTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5-1 5.1 ROAD NETWORK DEFINITION . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . .5-1 5.2 ROAD CAPACITIES AND CLASSIFICATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . .5-2 6 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES . .. . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . .6-1 6.1 GENERAL PUBLIC EVACUATION TIMES . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6-1 6.2 SELECTED SPECIAL FACILITIES EVACUATION TIMES . . . . . . .6-3 6.3 SPECIAL EVENTS EVACUATION TIMES . . . . . .. . . .. . . .6-4 h

6.4 EVACUATION CONFIRMATION TIMES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6-6 7 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-1 REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .R-1 APPENDICES A - NETVAC2 DESCRIPTION B - EVACUATION NETWORK NODE IDENTIFICATION

,C - NETVAC2 COMPUTER OUTPUT

' Annex A - Evacuation Feasibility Analysis for School Districts and Nursing Homes Within the Byron Station EPZ

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L LIST OF TABLES

( Table Title 1-1 Evacuation Time Estimates - General Public Evacuation Times 2-1 Local Communities by Evacuation Study Area 3-1 Demographic and Vehicle Data by Evacuation Study Area

.3-2 Schools.Within the Emergency Planning Zone 3-3' Major Employers Within the Emergency Planning Zone 3-4 Camps and Recreation Areas Within the Emergency Planning Zone 3-5 Health Care Facilities, Motels, and County Jail Within the Emergency Planning Zone 4-1 Public Response Time Estimates 6-1 Summary of Evacuation Time Estimates - Summer 6-2 Summary of Evacuation Time Estimates - Winter

( 6-3 Evacuation Confirmation Times by Primary Evacuation Zone

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LIS5OFFIGURES Figure Title 1-l' Byron Station Plume Exposure Pathway Emergency Planning Zone

r. and Site Vicinity b

2-1 Evacuation Study Areas 3-1 Permanent Population Distribution by Compass Sector 3-2 Permanent vehicle Distribution by compass Sector 3-3 Population Distribution by Compass Sector - Surs.ner Day 3-4 Vehicle Distribution by Compass Sector - Summer Day 3-5 Population Distribution by Com pass Sector - Summer Night 3-6 Vehicle Distribution by Compass Sector - Summer Night

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3-7 Population Distribution by Compass Sector - Winter Day 3-8 Vehicle Distribution by Compass Sector - Winter Day 3-9 ' Population Distribution by Compass Sector - Winter Night 3-10 Vehicle Distribution by Compass Sector - Winter Night 3-11 Special Facilities - Schools 3-12 Transient Population - Major Employers h 3-13 Transient Population-Camps, Recreation Areas, and Special Facilities 4-1 Public Response Time Estimates

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5-1 Byron Nuclear Generating Station Evacuation Road Network

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L- SECTION 1 INTRODUCTION

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This study presents evacuation time estimates for those portions of

[' Illinois within the plume exposure pathway Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) for the Byron Nuclear Generating Station, hereafter referred to as Byron Statien. The Byron Station is located near the Rock River in Rockvale Township, Illinois (Figure 1-1). The Byron Station plume exposure pathway EPZ- includes portions of Ogle and Winnebago Counties.

Figure 1-1 presents a map of the Byron Station EPZ.

1.1 ~ PURPOSE This evacuation time estimate study was developed by the Commonwealth Edison Company to suppdrt the State of Illinois Plan for Radiological

' Accidents (IPRA), Byron Volume VI, Revision 0, 2-84, and Commonwealth Edison's Generating Stations Emergency Plan Byron Annex. The primary purpose of this evacuation time estimate study is.to assess the relative feasibility of evacuation for the Byron Station Emergency Planning Zone.

The study _ identifies the approximate time frames associated with h evacuation based on a detailed consideration of the roadway network and population distribution. It is important-.. to note that this study

[. presents representative time frames for a range of -seasonal, diurnal, and' weather conditions for the evacuation of various areas around the B'yron Station once a decision has been made to evacuate; while the Byron

{ Volume- of. IPRA is the detailed emergency operations plan for the' Byron Station EPZ.

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' l.2 SUtetARY

{ The evacuation.. time estimates presented in this' study were developed using the NETVAC2 traffic simulation r:omputer model. Detailed site-specific evacuation road- network and vehicle data and public response

time distributions were used in NETVAC2 to determine evacuation time estimates. .For each of ten primary evacuation zones, evacuation time estimates for the general population within the Byron Station' EPZ were developed for eight combinations of conditions: summer and winter

( seasons; daytime and nighttime; normal and adverse weather. Results of the general population evacuation time estimates for these eighty scenarios, rounded to the nearest minute, are summarized in Table 1-1.

The computer analyses indicate that summer and winter evacuation time estimates are similar. Table 1-1 shows that for normal weather conditions in summer and winter, the general populatica evacuation time estimates for the full plume exposure pathway EPZ range from 184- to 191 minutes during the day to 96 to 108 minutes at night. In adverse weather, these time estimates range from 216 to 225 minutes for day to approximately.105 to 114 minutes for night scenarios. '

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Evacuation time estimates for the general population were also prepared

( for various other evacuation scenarios in the 0-2, 0-5,- and 0-10 mile evacuation zones. Summer and winter normal weather 0-2' mile evacuation time estimates range from 184 minutes during the day to 96 minutes at night. Adverse weather condition evacuation time estimates for 0-2 miles for the same time periods are 216 minutes during the day and

{ 105 minutes at night. The 0-5 mile estimates are slightly longer for 1-2

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- some scenarios, primarily due to the larger number of vehicles in the c 0-5 mile zones. Normal weather conditions result in a range of 184 to 191 minutes for the day to 96 to 105 minutes at night. The 0-5 mile adverse weather estimates range from 216 to 225 minutes during the day to 105 to 113 minutes at night.

In normal weather conditions, the evacuation times for the 0-10 mile primary evacuation zones during the day are 191 minutes and at night range from 106 to 108 minutes. The adverse weather condition time estimates range from 225 minutes for daytime to 113 to 114 minutes for nighttime.

In addition to an estimate of the time required to evacuate the general population, NUREG 0654, Appendix 4 requires that separate estimates be made of the times required to evacuate special facilities within the EPZ. Accordingly, school districts and nursing homes within the EPZ were analyzed in this study.

I Special facility evacuation time estimates range from 35 minutes to 159 minutes for normal weather, and from 37 minutes to 163 minutes for adverse weather scenarios. These estimates are based on winter simulations for the general population, since schools are the most numerous special facilities in the EPZ. Results of the special facility evacuation time estimates are summarized in Annex A.

In addition to developing special facilites evacuation time estimates, several Special Event simulations were also undertaken for special local events such as the Autumn On Parade. The results of these Special Event simulations are discussed in Section 6.

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s It is important to note that, due to the favorable roadway capacity to y population ratio, the evacuation time estimates are relatively L

insensitive to changes in population. Indeed, if the summer daytime transient population is increased by 50 percent, the additional

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evacuation time for the full EPZ summer day, normal weather evacuation s

scenario is 10 minutes.

This evacuation study was prepared in close coordination with the State of Illinois Emergency Services and Disaster Agency (ESDA) personnel responsible for the preparation of the Byron Volume of IPRA. This study was favorably reviewed by Ogle County and State of Illinois ESDA officials. Copies of this study were provided to these ESDA officials.

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s 1.3 SCOPE This study was prepared pursuant to the recommendations of NUREG-0654/ FEMA-REP-1, Rev. 11 Appendix 4, Evacuation Time Estimates within the Plume Exposure Pathway Emergency Planning Zone, the current regulatory guidance for preparing evacuation time estimates. Section 2 presents the evacuation study areas and evacuation scenarios. Section 3 discusses the various demographic and vehicle data utilized in this study. Section 4 presents the evacuation time estimate methodology and assumptions for both the general population and the special facilities.

Section 5 is a description of the evacuation road network. Section 6 presents the evacuation time estimates. Section 7 presents the conclusions and recommendations of this study.

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W-- L_ J muses TABLE 1-1 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES GENERAL PUBLIC EVACUATION TIMES (1)

Summerf 31 Winterf 41 P rima ry Daytime Nichttime Daytime Nichttime Evacuation Zone (2) No rma l Adverse Normal Adve rse Norma l Adverse Normal Adverse 0-2 mile A,B 184 216 96 105 184 216 96 105 0-5 mile A,B,C 188 223 105(6) 113(6) 188 223 105(6) 113(6) 0-5 mile A,B,D 184 216 96 105 184 216 96 105 0-5 mile A,B,E 191 225 105 110 191 224 105 110 0-5 mile A,B,F 184 216 96 105 191 216 96 105 0-10 mile A-F,G 191 225 108(6) 114(6) 191 225 106(6) 113(6) 0-10 mile A-F,H 191 225 107 114 191 225 106 113 0-10 mile A-F,1 191 225 107(7) 114(7) 191 225 106(7) 113(7) 0-10 mile A-F J 191 225 107 114 191 225 106 113 Full E PZ A-J ( 5 ) 191 225 108(8) 114(8) 191 225 106(8) 113(8)

NOTES:

(1) Times have been. rounded to nea rest minute.

(2) See Figure 2-1 for evacuation study area locations.

(3) As discussed in Section 3.1.

(4) As discussed inScena Section rio 3.2.

is analyzed in accordance with the guidance of Appendix 4 of NUREG-0654/ FEMA-REP-1, Rev. 1. This (5) Full EPZ A-J analysis verifies the appropriateness of the selection of the primary evacuation Zone bounda rie s used in the other analyses.

(6) The Quality Metal Finishing Co. in Byron has an estimated shutdown time of 90 minutes. Consequently, the nighttimo evacuation time estimate for those employees needed to shut down the facility could increase to 125 and 135 minutes for no rma l and adverse weather conditions, respectively.

(7) The Acme Resin Co. Outside Oregon has an estimated shutdown time of 120 minutes. Consequently, the nighttime evacuation time estimate for those employees needed to shut down the facility could increase to 145 and 155 minutes for no rma l and adverse weather conditions, respectively.

The Pine Crest Nursing Home in Mt. Morris has a facility mobilization time of 120 minutes. Consequently, the nighttime evacuation time estimate for this facility could increase to 140 and 142 minutes, respectively.

(8) As discussed in notes 6 and 7 above, the Acme Resin Co., Quality Metal Finishing Co. and Pine Crest Nursing Home may have longer evacuation times than estimated for the general public. The nighttime evacuation time estimates for *hese facilities may inc rea se to 125-145 minutes during normal weather condit ons and 135-155 minutes during adverse weather 8

conditions.

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( SECTION 2

, EMERGENCY PLANNING ZONE AND EVACUATION SCENARIOS 1

L 2.1 EVACUATION STUDY AREAS The ' area studied for potential evacuation is the plume exposure pathway emergency planning zone (EPZ) for the Byron Station. For the purposes of this study several evacuation study areas were defined within the EPZ.

The study areas for evacuation of the plume EPZ approximate the 0-2 mile, 2-5 mile, and 5-10 mile sector gro,upings suggested in NUREG-0654, Appendix 4. These evacuation study areas were discussed

=with and favorably reviewed by ESDA officials of Ogle County and the State of Illinois.

Figure 2-1 identifies the ten evacuation study areas. Table 2-1 identifies the location of these ten study areas and the local communities contained within each study area.

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s 2.2 PRIMARY EVACUATION ZONES

( To facilitate preparation of realistic evacuation time estimates, the evacuation study areas were grouped into ten primary evacuation zones.

These evacuation zones are designated as follows:

. 0-2 mile, Evacuation Study Areas A and B

. 0-5 mile, Evacuation Study Areas A,B and C

. 0-5 mile, Evacuation Study Areas A,B and D I . 0-5 mile, Evacuation Study Areas A,B and E

. 0-5 mile, Evacuation Study Areas A,B and F

. 0-10 mile, Evacuation Study Areas A through F and G

. 0-10 mile, Evacuation Study Areas A through F and H

. 0-10 mile, Evacuation Study Areas A through F and I I

. 0-10 mile, Evacuation Study Areas A through F and J

. Full EPZ, Evacuation Study Areas A through J. (Full EPZ A-J Scenario is analyzed in accordance with the guidance of Appendix 4 of NUREG-0654/ FEMA-REP-1, Rev. 1. This analysis verifies the appropriateness of the selection of the primary evacuation zone boundaries used in the other analyses.)

Evacuation time estimates were developed for each of these primary evacuation zones for the conditions discussed in the following sections.

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Evacuation scenarios were developed to simulate evacuation conditions J_

determined by the combination of primary evacuation zones with a "a l

specified season, time of the day, and weather condition during which an ;

evacuation may be necessary. There are ten primary evacuation zones, [

2 two seasons (summer and winter), two time considerations (daytime and -

nighttime), and two weather conditions (normal and adverse). Therefore, total of eighty evacuation scenarios were considered in this 1 a

.N evacuation time estimate study. [

2.3.1 Seasonal and Diurnal Farameters -

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Section 3 describes demographic data in detail. The following ;

paragraphs summarize this description. l x

The summer season attracts additional visiting and transient populations e to the area of Byron Station, principally as vacationers to the recreational facilities. Therefore, the summer daytime scenarios include the permanent resident, daytime employee, visiting or transient _

populations, and applicable special facilities populations. The summer i t_

nighttime scenarios include the permanent resident, nighttime employee, [

overnight transient and applicable special facilities populations. ?

i The winter daytime scenarios include the permanent resident, daytime E employee, school district, and applicable transient and special facilities populations. The winter nighttime scenarios include the permanent resident, nighttime employee, and applicable transient and special facilities populations.

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The above baseline evacuation scenarios are representative of weekday conditions because they occur most frequently. Additional simulations of Special Events were undertaken (see Section 6) which address large 1

weekend events. These Special Events are the Autumn on Parade, which occurs the first weekend in October, and large weekend events at the Byron Dragway and Moto Sports Park.

2.3.2 Weather Parameters Normal and adverse weather conditions were also considered. For the purposes of this study, adverse weather conditions are assumed to reduce road capacity to 80 percent of normal weather capacity, and include conditions that may impair visibility and/or traction, such as light snow, icing, rain, or fog.

Transportation studies 5 and the opinions of recognized traffic experts 8 indicate that such conditions can reduce road capacity to 76-92 percent of normal weather capacity. Review of the Byron area meteorology has revealed that these weather conditions occur, on an annual basis, about 10 percent of the time.7 It is important to note that this study does not suggest that evacuations will or should occur under all adverse weather conditions. Under certain extremely adverse weather conditions where evacuation may be infeasible, the alternative protective action of sheltering would be recommended.

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TABLE 2-1 LOCAL COMMUNITIES BY EVACUATION STUDY AREA m

1 Study Evacuation Area County Area (1) Local Communities 0-2 Miles Ogle A Rockvale Twp., Marion Twp.

North (Byron Nuclear Generating Station) 0-2 Miles Ogle B Rockvale Twp., Marion Twp.

South (Byron Nuclear Generating Station) 2-5 Miles Ogle C Rockvale Twp., Byron Twp.,

Northeast Marion Twp., Byron

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2-5 Miles Ogle D Marion Twp., Pine Rock Twp.

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2-5 Miles Ogle E Rockvale Twp., Oregon Twp., ;-

' Southwest Pine Rock Twp., Oregon, -

2-5 Miles Ogle F Rockvale Twp., Byron Twp. .

Northwest &

5-10 Miles Ogle G Byron Twp., Rockford Twp.,

Northeast Winnebago Marion Twp., Scott Twp., ;

Winnebago Twp., Seward Twp., ;

Davis Junction, Stillman Valley, -

Westfield Corners I 5-10 Miles Ogle H Scott Twp., Marion Twp., White Southeast Rock Twp., Pine Rock Twp., Holcomb, .-

Davis Junction, Chana, Paynes Point, Flagg Twp.

5-10 Miles Ogle I Oregon Twp., Nashua Twp., Pine Southwest Creek Twp., Mt. Morris Twp.,

Rockvale Twp., Mt. Morris, Daysville, Honey Creek --

5-10 Miles Ogle J Rockvale Twp., Mt. Morris Twp.,

Northwest Winnebago Leaf River Twp., Byron Twp.,

Seward Twp., Lightsville, Leaf River, Myrtle, Egan NOTE:

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(1) See Figure 2-1 for Study Area Identification.

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SECTION 3 DEMOGRAPHIC AND VEHICLE DATA Demographic information for this study was derived from the official 1980 census data.S Additional information was derived from field survey work, and communications with ogle County and State of Illinois Emergency Services and Disaster Agency (ESDA) officials. Further information was obtained by Illinois ESDA personnel from local property

, ownere and employers. The vehicle data were derived from the demographic data and the average number of persons per household in Ogle County. The study assumes one vehicle per household. The number of registered vehicles in Ogle and Winnebago Counties supports this assumption. Figures 3-1 through 3-10 present specific population and vehicle data by compass sector and distance from the Byron Station for various seasonal and diurnal conditions. As discussed in Section 1.2, the evacuation time estimates are relatively insensitive to changes in population.

l This study identifies 21,622 permanent residents within the evacuation study areas. Figures 3-1 and 3-2 present the permanent resident population and vehicle data by compass sector and distance. Tables 3-2 through 3-5 present various transient and special facilities populations. For the purpose of this study, as required by NUREG 0654, Appendix 4, special facilities are those institutions or other population concentrations which are transportation-dependent or may have other special concerns. Transient (non-resident) and special facilities include, as appropriate, schools, major employers, recreation areas, and health care facilities. Schools are shown on Figure 3-11. Figures 3-12 1

3-1

7

, and 3-13 identify the locations of transient populations, including j major employers and camps and recreation areas. Major employers are shown on Figure 3-12. Health care facilities, campgrounds, and other similar institutions within the EPZ are shown on Figure 3-13.

The summer daytime period represents the period of greatest population.

This study identifies a summer daytime population of 44,493 persons.

l This figure was derived by adding the number of employees, transients, and applicable special facilities populations to the permanent population. The summer daytime period also has the greatest number of vehicles due to the increase in transients. The study identifies a summer nighttime population of 28,339 including the permanent resident, nighttime employee, overnight transients, and applicable special facilities populations.

This study identifies a winter daytime population of 34,806 which includes the permanent resident, daytime employee, applicable transient and special facilities populations. The winter nighttime population is representative of the permanent resident, nighttime employee, and applicable transient and special facilities populations, and is the period with the lowest number of individuals and vehicles.

Table 3-1 summarizes the population and vehicle data by seasonal period for each of the evacuation study areas. This population data does not include short term events such as the Autumn on Parade and large events at the Byron Dragway and Moto Sports Speedway. These events are discussed in Section 3.4.

3-2

m s NUREG 0654, Appendix 4, recommends that the public transport-dependent g- population be considered. There are no public transportation systems in k

the Byron EPZ. Accordingly, this recommendation is not applicable.

[.

( .

[:

[

3-3

5 I

3.1 SUMMER SEASON POPULATION DATA H The summer season, as defined by this study, extends from about Memorial Day weekend through Labor Day weekend. There is a significant population influx during this season. The specific population combinations are discussed in the following sections.

3.1.1 Summer Daytime Data Summer daytime population includes transients (e.g. recreation area visitors, see Table 3-4), and applicable special facilities populations (see Table 3-5), in addition to the permanent resident and employee populations. Figures 3-3 and 3-4 present this data by compass sector

( for population and vehicles, respectively.

3.1.2 Summer Nighttime Data The summer nighttime population includes overnight transients (e.g.

motels and applicable campgrounds), and applicable special facilities populations (see Table 3-5), in addition to the permanent resident and nighttime employee populations. Figures 3-5 and 3-6 present this data by compass sector for population and vehicles, respectively.

[

3-4

( _ - - _ - - _ - - - - - - - - _ - _ - - - - _ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - _ -

m F

3.2: WINTER SEASON POPULATION DATA The_ winter season, as defined by this study, extends from about Labor Day through. Memorial D'ay. This season includes the non-tourist months, when; schools are in session. The specific population combinations are .

' discussed in the following sections.

3.2.1' Winter Daytime Data Winter daytime populations include permanent residents, school enrollments (see Table 3-2), employees (see Table 3-3), applicable camps and recreational facilities (see Table 3-4), and applicable special facilities (see Table 3-5). The winter daytime populations and vehicle

. data are shown by compass sector en Figures 3-7 and 3-8.

h 3.2.2 Winter Nighttime Data f

-Winter : nighttime populations include permanent residents, employee night-shift- populations, and applicable special facilities (see Table 3-5). The winter nighttime populations and corresponding vehicle data are shown by compass sector on Figures 3-9 and 3-10.

[

[L 3-5

[

t~ - _ - _ - - - - _ - - - _ - - - -

s r.

L 3.3 TRANSIENT AND SPECIAL FACILITIES POPULATION DATA

'For the purpose of this study, as required by NUREG 0654, Appendix 4,

- special facilities are those institutions or other population concentrations which are transportation-dependent or may have other special concerns. Transient and special facilities include, as appropriate, schools, major employers, recreation areas, and health care facilities. Population data for these facilities are shown on

- Tables 3-2, 3-3, 3-4 and 3-5 respectively.

The locations of schools within the EPZ are identified on Figure 3-11.

Figures 3-12 and 3-13 identify the locations of transient populations, including major . employers, motels, and camps and recreation areas.

[ Figure 3-12 presents the location of major employers. Nursing homes, motels, . campgrounds, the Ogle County jail, and other similar institutions within the EPZ are identified on Figure 3-13.

[

3-6

(

f -- - -_ ---- ------- --- - - - - -

5 n-3.4 SPECIAL EVENTS POPULATIONS

[ The Special Event populations associated with infrequent short-term activities or special events were identified. Included as special Events in this study are: the Autumn on Parade, which takes place in the Byron EPZ once a year in October; concurrent peak c.ttendance racing events at the Byron Dragway and the Moto Sports Park which could occur on a. weekend during the summer; and a special evacuation sensitivity analysis of transient populations at the recreational areas within the EPZ on a summer holiday to determine the sensitivity of the evacuation time estimates to recreational area populations.

{

The estimated number of additional people in the EPZ associated with the Autumn on Parade, which takes place on the first weekend in October, is ,

approximately 25,000 people. The peak attendance figures at the Byron Dragway and the Moto Sports Park were estimated to be 15,000 and 10,000, respectively, for concurrent major racing events during the summer. To generate the population data for the special evacuation sensitivity analysis of recreational areas, the transient population data for the camps and recreation areas within the EPZ as identified in Table 3-4, were increased by 50 percent.

The Special Event populations were added to the applicable permanent resident, employee, transient, and special facilities populations. The results of these Special Event analyses are presented in Section 6.3.

{.-

[

3-7

' W M - P v h O v r- 7... ww - .w _g.

r.E-(:. __

TABLE 3 *-

>/c DEMOGRAPHIC AND VEHidLE DATA BY EVACUATION STUDY AREA (1) y

.-e

~

^ " Summerf 21 ' -- Winterf 3)

Nichttime Daytime N i chtt ime

!' "';r" Evacuation Daytime Popuistionf 41 Vehiclesf5) PopulationI 41 Vehiclesf5) 4-Study Area Populationf4) Vehiclesf5) .fooulationf41 Vehiclesf5) 229'

~

430 657 229. 657; I l 'A 6,657 3,032 ,1,257 800

^

359 3,600 '1,759 800 359 lC .

B 3,600 1,759 e 1,743 4,714 1,575 3,414 1,269 C 6,715 2,626 4,914

~

'134 . . 392 134 392 134 392' 134 D 392 ,

5,090! 1,845 . 7,626 2,501. 4,945 1,801

-6,770 3,139 E r> /r

. e

, .y ,# J ,#.

49c' '183 352 121 452 171 352 1h

.F

/ ) ~

1.5J3 -

5,523 1,586 4,286 G. e 4,736 1,601 ,4,436i 1,511 ,

2,180 726 2,030 ,714 ),

H' 2,230 784 2,20)< 771 i 2,248 6,807 2,646 5,005 1,858 !

6,460 J

Ic 8,414 2,433 3,275 859 2,433 859 2,855 886 2,433 859

) .

M d e J ,

NOTES:

(1) Data derived fromi the official 1980 census data and field survey work as discussed in Section 3.

(2) Refer to Section '3.1 for description of summer population combinations.

(3) Refer to Section 3.2 for description of winter population combinations. ,

(4) Data derived f rom Tables 3-2, 3-3, 3-4, and 3-5 and Figures 3-1, 3-3, 3-5, 3-7, a nd 3-9.

The data are presented on Figures 3-2, (5) Data derived from Tables 3-2, 3-3, 3-4, and 3-5 and assumptions in Section 4.1.3.

3-4, 3-6, 3-8, and 3-10.

1 of 1

m m -W r. .D V m W .m V MD -- I w TABLE 3-2 SCHOOLS WITHIN THE EMERGENCY PLANNING ZONE,(1) facility Di rect ion /' StJdy-No.f21 Mile A rea Name of School No. of Students /Starff31 41 WSW/8-9 i Mt. Morris E.S. 341/30 42 WSW/8-9 I Mt. Mo rri s J r. H.S. .187/15 43 WSW/8-9 i Mt. Morris Sr. H.S. '226/21 44 SW/5-6 E Oregon Community H.S 402/41 45 SW/5-6 E -Etnyre Middle School 380/29 46 SW/5-6 E Jefferson E.S. 445/31 49 SSW/4-5 E Oregon Bible College 40/15 50 SW/3-4 E Lorado Taft field Campus 150/30 51 WNW/7-8 J Lear River Community School, K-12 384/38 52 WSW/8-9 i Ogle County Educational Coop - Mt. Mo rri s 35/32 53 NNE/3-4 C Byron Middle School 232(4).

54 NNE/3-4 C Mary Morgan Elementa ry School, K-5 417(4) 55a ENE/5-6 G Highland Grade School & Early Childhood 349/23 55b ENE/5-6 G Meridian Jr. H.S. 327/30 55c ENE/5-6 G Stillman Valley H.S. 467/41 56 NNE/3-4 C Byron H.S. 400(4) 57 SW/5-6 E Oregon County. Education Cooperative, 75/7 l

Oregon High Annex 58 SSW/4-5 E Oregon Community Dayca re Center 30/5 66 SW/5-6 I Village of Progress 91/20 NOTES: (1) Information is based on data available in Janua ry 1984. As discussed in Section 1, the evacuation time estimates are relatively insensitive to changes in population.

(2) See figure 3-11 for school locations.

(3) This information provided by State of Illinois ESDA personnel responsible for the development of IPRA, Byron Volume VI (See Reference 6).

(4) Numbers represent students plus staff.

l

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' TABLE 3-3 ,

i

, MAJOR EMPLOYERS WITitIWJ1HE EMERGENCY PLANNING ZONE (1) (2)-

Facility Direction / " l Study ,

No. of' Employees Mile Area Name of Manufacturer -

No.(3) - gay N6eht u ,

C Quality Metal Finishing Co. 125 100 ,'

~24 ~_ NNE/4-5

, . ~ -;

C Kysor of Byron 210 15

(. 25 NNE/4 o i Acme Resin Co. '20 20 l 26 SW/6-7 l

E Atwood Vacuum Machine Co. 40 40-27 SSW/5-6 u s E Cook Manufacturing 30 0 28 ,SSW/5-6 E.D. Etnyre & Co. 98 0 SSW/4-5 E 29a E E.D. Etnyre & Co. 89 0 29b _SSW/5-6 Unimin Corp. 26 12 SW/6-7 I

~ . ('3'O ( Formally Ma rtin Ma rietta .

' - Agg rega tes )

E Progressive Craphics 100 60 31 SSW/4-5 -

i ' Woods Brothers inc, - 365 60

! 32' SSW/6-7 i Kable Printing Co. 250 225 33 WSW/7-8 1 Kable News 300 0 34 WSW/7-8 B _ j, Byron Station 3340 540 38 E/O-1 Notes .

./ ..

(1) For the purpose of this study, major employers are those with 25 or more total employees. This information is based on data available in January of 1984. As discussed in Section 1, the evacuation time estimates are re la t ively insensitive

~

to changes in population. '

(2) This i n fo rma t ion was p rovided by State of Illibois ESDA personnel responsible for the development of IPRA, Byron Volume VI (See Reference 6).

(3) See Figure 3-12 for employer locations. ,

1 of 1

'am - ummme nununs - ammmu TABLE 3-4 CAMPS AND RECREATION AREAS WITHIN THE EMERCENCY PLANNING ZONE (1)

Facility Direction / Study Mile Area facility Name Periods of Operation T ra ns ient Population No.f21 pay Night 1 SW/8-9 1 Lake LaDonna Summer / Day & Night 2000 1100 3 W/2-3 A River Road Camping and Marina Summer / Day & Hight 1000 500 4(3) N/1-2 A Moto Sports Park Summer / Day & Night 5000 100 6 SW/8 9 I White Pines Ranch Summer / Day & Night 250 250 Winter / Day & Night 150 150 7(3) N/2-3 C Byron Dragway Summer / Day & Night 1000 100 8 NNE/4-5 C Lake Louise Summer / Day & Night 2000 1400 9 WSW/3-4 E Stronghold Camp Summer / Day & Night 200 140 Winter / Day & Night 70 70 10 SSW/8-9 I Castle Rock State Pa rk and Summe r/ Day 350 0 Nature Preserve Winte r/ Day 100 0 11 SW/3-4 E Lowden Memoria l State Pa rk Summer / Day & Night 2600 100 Winter / Day & Night 500 25 ,

12 SSW/9-10 1 Camp Lowden Boy Scout Camp Summer / Day & Night 200 200 Winter / Day & Night 150 150 13 NNE/6-7 G Camp McCormick Gi rl Scout Camp Summer / Day & Night 250 250 Winter / Day & Night 100 100 14 ESE/6-7 H Kings Camp Summer / Day & liight 150 150 15 NNW/2-3 F Byron Sportsmen's Club Yea r- round 100 0 16 SSW/6-7 i Lutheran Outdoor Ministry Summer / Day & Night 250 250 Winter / Day & Night 140 140 17 SSE/8-9 H Rochelle Conservation Club Summer / Day & Night 50 25 Wi nte r/ Day 150 0 18 WSW/9-10 i Moosehart Camp Ross Summer / Day & Hight 60 60 Mt. Morris Boat Club Summe r/ Day 40 0 19 NW/2-3 F 20 ENE/2-3 C Weld Memoria l Pa rk Summe r/ Day 50 0 1 of 2

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7 O O M n n n n d r"-"1 T-- I r-- T r- -"I m m r-, m rp r 7 r:' i TABLE 3-5 h'EALTH CARE FACILITIES,. MOTELS AND COUNTY JAll WITHIN THE EMERCENCY PLANNING ZONE (1).

Resident / Staff Population Facility- Direction / Study Faci 1itv Name Day Night No.f21 ' Mile A rea Mt. Morris Motel 22 22 61 WSW/6-7 1 E V.1. P. Hote 1 24 24 62 SW/4-5 C The Neighbors Nursing and 134 103 63 NNE/3-4 Ca re Cente r E White Pines Manor 74 65 64 SSW/5-6 i Pine Crest Manor '192 118 65 WSW/7-8 E Ogle County JaiI 35 35 68 SSW/4-5 G Black Hawk Trails Notel 12 12 69 NNE/7-8 Notes i

(1) This information was provided byInformation State of Illinois ESDA personnel responsible for the development is based on data available in Janua ry 198i4. As discussedof IPRA, Byron Volume VI (See Reference 6).

l in Section 1, the evacuation time ~ estimates.are relatively insensitive to changes in population.

(2). See Figure 3-13 for facility locations.

I 1 of 1

L I

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868 N

$70 2001 NNW 46 NNE S0 167 11 0 928 80 71 1861 7,

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TNis Cara is iNCouCEO wirN 1NE i.: PERMANENT POPULATION DISTRIBUTION MILE SECTOR POPULATION: ON suBSEQbENT e0PutariON Oistaisur:0N muaEs BY COMPASS SECTOR

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FIGURE 3-2

rNi$ 04r4 is iNetu0E0 wirN rNE i 2 PERMANENT VEHICLE DISTRIBUTION

_ MILE SECrOR VENICLES ON SUSSEQUENT vtNietE Oi$m8vriON neuaEs BY COMPASS SECTOR I

r

l

'l 6868 N

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$1W g SSE 0 iwitt aaoiuS FIGURE 3-3 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION BY COMPASS SECTOR -SUMMER DAY I

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$$w 3 SSE 0 E MILE R ADIUS FIGURE 3-5 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION BY COMPASS SECTOR-SUMMER NIGHT

1 404 1 igg 1623 NNw 16 NNE 17 3g 108 I 320 Nw 28 2P 25 GS9 NE 0'

42 410

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L e

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0 WSW D 0 ESE SW SE SSe 3 SSE 0 0 dlLE R ADIUS POPULATION DISTRIBUTION BY COMPASS SECTOR-WINTER DAY 1

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- O 835 %

wSW O O ESE O O O Sw SE SSW g SSE 0 imE na0iuS FIGURE 3-8 VEHICLE DISTRIBUTION BY COMPASS SECTOR-WINTER DAY

5 L

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[ Sw St Slw g S$t 0 iwitt na0ius FIGURE 3-9 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION BY COMPASS SECTOR-WINTER NIGHT

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s L SECTION 4 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS L

This section presents the methodology and assumptions used to develop

[ the evacuation time estimates for the general population. Additionally, the methodology and assumptions used for a separate assessment for selected special facilities as required by NUREG 0654, Appendix 4, are

( presented.

4.1 GENERAL POPULATION EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES

{

The general population, for the purposes of developing evacuation time estimates, is comprised of the permanent population, transients, and special facilities population appropriate for each of the particular evacuation scenarios. The general population evacuation time estimates are presented in Section 6.1.

( The general population evacuation time estimates were calculated using the NETVAC2 computerized traffic simulation model,2 which was developed to simulate the traffic flow over a transportation network during an evacuation. As input for the evacuation time estimates, this model utilizes -site specific road network and vehicle data, as well as public notification and mobilization times.

{

4.1.1 Evacuation Time Estimates Methodology

[

The NETVAC2 model was developed primarily for calculating the evacuation

[ times for areas around nuclear power facilities. This model simulates the flow of traffic from entry nodes, where the vehicles enter the road

{

network, to the exit nodes, located outside the EPZ boundary, where the 4-1

[

r __ - - - - - - _ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

L F

_ vehicles leave the network. The model uses the Highway capacity Manual 3 equations and revisions contained in the Interim Material on Highway Capacity

to calculate the capacity of the road network. In addition,

( vehicle speeds on the road network are computed using the inverse linear relationship between speed and density presented in the Highway capacity Manual. The NETVAC2 model -has been extensively used for other evacuation studies similar to the Byron Study,and the results in those other studies have been favorably reviewed by the appropriate local, State and Federal authorities.

{'

The NETVAC2 model allows a detailed evacuation roadway network to be analyzed by utilizing an area specific data base, which includes link

(- (road segment) length, lane width, number of lanes, node (intersection, point of entry, or point of exit) approach width, shoulder width, traffic controls, signal timing, turning lanes, and direction of turns.

This data is used to determine road network capacity and direction of <

[.

traffic flow. The evacuation road network is discussed in Section 5.

[' Additional input data is used by the model to derive vehicle inading rates for each primary evacuation zone. Vehicles are entered at specific points (nodes) on the network and their loading rates varied with time. Therefore, the vehicle loading rate is tailored to match (L

actual population centers and time distributions of the public's response to notification. This notification response was approximated by a probability distribution of the public's reaction time during an

[ evacuation and is discussed in detail in Section 4.1.2.

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NETVAC2 also uses dynamic route choice, which means that vehicle turning changed

(- . movements at individual intersections are with traffic conditions to reduce the number of vehicles that have turned onto a congested roadway. Appendix A discusses the NETVAC2 Model in greater detail.

4.1.2 Public Response Times and Network Loading Rates

[

The range and variation of public reaction to evacuation notification

( was described by a probability distribution of response times. This response time distribution was derived by combining the response time

[ distributions for several components of the public response to the evacuation notification process. These components are as follows:

. Receive Warning, the time period between the activation of the

[ prompt public notification system and the receipt by the public of the message to evacuate:

{

. Leave Work, the time period required for employees to leave work and travel to their vehicles;

. Travel from Work to Home, the time period required to drive from work to homer and

. Prepare Home for Evacuation, the time period required to gather

[ essential belongings and prepare home for evacuation.

Total mobilization times were determined by combining these components for each evacuation scenario. The range and average public response times for each of these components are shown in Table 4-1. These

[

4-3

[

t

l L.

e response times were favorably reviewed by ogle County and State of Illinois ESDA officials.

A normal distribution was assumed for the time span of these individual components. This distribution represents the situation in which most persons respond in the average time for a given event, while fewer individuals respond earlier and later than the average time. Therefore, 3

the cumulative probability distribution of each of these components is an "S" shaped curve. The curves have been derived by using standard mathematical techniques based on NUREG-0654/ FEMA-REP-1, Appendix 41 recommendations. Figure 4-1 presents the distribution curves used for this study. Nighttime curves were derived by combining two components:

Receive Warning and Prepare Home for Evacuation. Daytime curves were derived by combining four components: Receive Warning, Leave Work, Travel Home, and Prepare Home for Evacuation. The cumulative distribution of these different components, when combined, has an "S" shaped curve similar to the curves for the individual components, and represents the spectrun of public response times.

These public response time curves were used to determine the rate and time for vehicle loading. These curves provide information en the percentage of people leaving their homes within specific periods of time. Vehicles were loaded onto the evacuation roadway network using the percentage and times outlined in the public response time curves.

It should be noted that during the course of developing these public l

response times, this study assessed the employment center shut down times for the major employers in the EPZ as listed in Table 3-3. Eleven 4-4

'I

L F

L- of the thirteen major employers have shut down times of 60 minutes or

' l'e s s . The remaining two major employers (Quality Metal Finishing Co. in

[

' Byron and Acme Resin Co. outside of Oregon) have shut down times of from 90 to-120 minutes, although in both cases only a small percentage of the work force would be needed for this entire time period with the majority of the employees being dismissed in less than 60 minutes.

(- Since ~the response times of the major employers are well within the cumulative public response time for. most evacuation scenarios, no modification of the public response curves because of the employment

-center shut down times is necessary or appropriate. However, because two of the major employers have shut down times of from 90 to

.120 minutes, which approximates the general public evacuation time

{~

estimates .for some scenarios and could therefore result in slightly

[ longer evacuation times for those employees needed to shut down these facilities, appropriate notations were made to Tables 1-1, 6-1, and 6-2.

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-4.1.3 ~ Assumptions Used in Developing the Evacuation Time Estimates L

h - The prompt public notification system, which utilizes sirens, will be used. .(Based on this system, the time to notify essentially

[' 100 percent of the full plume exposure pathway EPZ population has been estimated to be 15 minutes.)

[-

Evacuation network routes will be passable.

Persons within the plume exposure pathway EPZ, when instructed to evacuate, will leave,

h. .

People in the outer primary evacuation zones will not evacuate when an inner primary evacuation zone is the only zone recommended to be

[? evacuated.

Adequate transportation will be available for summer camps.

- Evacuation of health care facilities, recreation areas, and other h

special facilities will occur simultaneously with the general population evacuation.

(. -

Traffic rules and controls will be obeyed; only the proper travel lane will be used (not shoulders or opposite flow lanes); and

[. traffic lights will be functioning normally or traffic control officers will be stationed at the location of nonfunctioning traffic lights.

[ -

No major traffic will be on the road network prior to the start of an evacuation.

( 4-6

[

f

j .v A i

1 4 L.. .- Appropriate traffic and access control points will be manned.

s h - Roadway capacities will be reduced to 80 percent of normal weather capacity during adverse weather. 5,6,7 Adverse weather conditions '

[- 'are those . that may impair visibility and/or traction such as light

'N

' snow,. icing, rain, or fog.

{f 1,9 x t

-- Private vehicles will be the primary mode of evacuation, e .

\ , ,only one vehicle per kogehold will be used in an evacuation.

[ W. - t a, 7 (There are 2.8 persons per household, based sn an average of people

' I per houseNold in' Ogle' County.')

Au y w

{. s s N J -- One vehicle per two visitors at clubs will be used in an evacuation.

[ , <

- Boats will moor and the occupants will then evacuate by car with one v

N vehicle allotted per boat.

- .one vehicl per campsite at recreational campgrounds will be used for evacuation.- (This assumes 3.3 people per. vehicle as this is the

{- Iljinois state average number of people per -family.H)

.s .

( -

'onekehicle per employee at major employers will be used in an_

evachation. , ,' , N (c 0

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, People without vghicles will receive rides from either r.eighbors or

' g.,t

? "l { O. ud , designated public ser ice vehicles in accordance with the standard

.qr. k Operating Procedures. contained in IPRA -' Byron Volume VI. (Since

'[there"are no _ public transportation systems in' the Byron EPZ,

( @ residents without vehicles would have developed some transportation

( $4 i4 g options for general daily use and movements. Additionally, Standard

(' d . o .

s ._

.( l; y0 4-7 to

(

s Operating- Procedure 6-SOP-8 of IPRA-Byron, Vol. VI' has a number of mechanisms for providing transportation assistance to individuals and/or groups during an emergency. IPRA-Byron.Vol. VI also has in

' place 6-SOP-12 by which a Mobility Impaired Transportation' List for the Byron EPZ has been developed and is maintained by Ogle County

[ emergency planning officials so as to be available during an emergency.)

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-' 1 4.2 SELECTED SPECIAL FACILITIES EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE METHODOLOGY $NDASSUMPTIONS In addition to deriving an estimate of the time required to evacuate the general population, NUREG 0654, Appendix 4 requires that separate estimates be made of the times required to evacuate special facilities

{ _

\

within the EPZ. Special' facilities selected to be analyzed in Annex A

[ to this study include school districts and nursing homes in the Byron EPZ. The separate evacuation time estimates for these selected special

[ facilities are presented in Section'6.2.

3 Sele'cted special facility evacuation time estimates include mobilization time for obtaining transportation, s time for loading persons into

[ vehicles, and the travel time out of the EPZ. Appropriate mobilization and loading times for the selected special facilities evaluated in this

{

study were obtained by .St' ate o f, Illinois ESDA personnel through h.

? interviews with facility officials.' "

j Travel time out of the plume exposure pathway EPZ was determined using h

the average vehicle speed calculated by the NETVAC2 model along -the

\

( appropriate- evacuation route. Data for these calculations were taken from the general population evacuation simulatioS for the full .EPZ

[ , winter daytime scenario for both normal and adverse weather conditions'.

T L, .

Thewinterjsimulationwasutilizedfortheselected special facilitiss 4

[\.

evacua' tion time estimates since the winter > period is concurrent with ths;7 i school year. The mobilization time estimates for each selected special facility were combined with the travel time out of the plume exposure

( .' pathway EPZ to cal'enlate the. total selected special facility evacuation 4-9 n

f .: l

r..

L- 3 I

time. The Byron Station'EPZ school district and nursing home evacuation time' estimates'and feasibility analyses are presented in Annex A.

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l 4.3 SPECIAL EVENT EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS

. The evacuation time estimates for the special event analyses as defined in Section 3.4 were calculated using the NETVAC2 computerized traffic simulation model2 discussed in Section 4.1. Only two additional assumptions were used for these special event evacuation analyses.

{

Specifically, the primary evacuation routes were modified to represent a h more realistic flow of traffic from the Byron Dragway and the Moto Sports Park as follows: 1) vehicles from Byron Dragway would travel both

[ north and south along River Road; and 2) vehicles from the Moto Sports Park would' likewise travel both north and south along German Church Road. Additionally, it was also assumed that a traffic control point h would be in place at the intersection of River and German Church Roads to facilitate the maximum flow of vehicles at that point on the evacuation roadway network.

[

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TABLE 4-1

& PUBLIC RESPONSE TIME ESTIMATES (1) k Range of

(.. Public Response Average Time for Component Times

~

Component Component (minutes)(3) (minutes)(2)

Reccive Warning (4) 15 0-30

(--

Leave Work (5) 15 0-30 Travel Home(5)

Normal Weather 30 0-60 (

Adverse Weather (6) 45 0-90

[ Prepare Home for 30 0-60 Evacuation

[

L NOTES : -

(1) Favorably reviewed by Ogle County and State of Illinois ESDA officials.

(2) This range implies that some people will initiate the identified event within the lower range of the component times while others will initiate the event within the upper range of the component times.

- (3) See Figure 4-1 for public response distribution curves.

(4) An -average' time of 15 minutes was utilized with a O to 30 minute time distribution.

(5) . Daytime evacuation scenarios only.

(6) Based on a reduced adverse weather road capacity factor of 0.8.

[.

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I SECTION 5 EVACUATION ROAD NETWORK DESCRIPTION 5 .'1 ROAD NETWORK DEFINITION The series of roads designated for evacuating the plume exposure pathway h EPZ is called the evacuation road network. The network includes major arterials. and collector roads. The major intersections are assigned numbers as nodes in the network. The road segments between these nodes

( are called links.

Figure 5-1 illustrates the series of links and nodes that represent the evacuation road network for the Byron Station EPZ. Appendix B presents the location. of each node by identifying the names of the roads that intersect at that node. The evacuation road network exit nodes, located outside' the Byron Station EPZ, are numbered in the 800's. This evacuation road network was derived from official Illinois Department of Transportation maps and was field verified by road data collection. The evacuation network'has been favorably reviewed by Ogle County and State

(.

of Illinois ESDA officials.

(

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.-___._-.-.__----u__.__ _ _ - - - _ _ . - . . _

s F ,

5.2 -ROAD CAPACITIES AND CLASSIFICATIONS The NETVAC2 model 'used field data, such as road widths and travel

- ' speeds,-to calculate the capacity of each of the links and nodes in the evacuation network. The specific capacities and classifications of each road and intersection in the evacuation network are presented in

{-

Appendix C. The majority 'of the roads in this study are classified as

[ rural undivided highways. There are also a few rural divided highways.

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4 l

SECTION 6 l

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES 6.1 GENERAL PUBLIC EVACUATION TIMES Evacuation time estimates for the general public, including mobilization and travel times, were calculated using the NETVAC2 model for the e various combinations of the ten evacuation study areas that are I discussed in Section 2. Each of the ten primary evacuation zones was l

analyzed for four population combinations associated with summer and winter, day and night times, and normal and adverse weather conditions.

Thus, a total of eighty evacuation scenarios was considered in this evacuation time estimate study. Tables 6-1 and 6-2 present the evacuation time estimates for these NETVAC2 calculations for each primary evacuation zone.

l The NET 1/AC 2 model results show that the summer and winter evacuation time estimates for all primary evacuation zones do not differ significantly. Under normal weather conditions, evacuation of the full EPZ takes 191 minutes for the daytime scenario and 106 to 108 minutes for the nighttime scenario.

For adverse weather conditions the and 113 to B evacuation time estimates are 225 minutes during the day, 114 minutes at night for the full EPZ scenario.

During normal weather conditions, the evacuation times for the 0-10 mile evacuation zones are 191 minutes during the daytime and 1ange from 106 to 108 minutes for the nighttime condition. The adverse weather time ettimates are 225 minutes during the daytime and range from 113 to 114 minutes at night.

6-1

'- The evacuation time estimates for the four 0-5 mile evacuation zones in P

normal weather for the daytime range from 184 minutes to 191 minutes, and for the nighttime evacuation range from 96 to 105 minutes. The adverse weather condition evacuation time estimates for the four 0-5 mile evacuation zones during the day range from 216 minutes to 225 minutes, and at night range from 105 to 113 minutes. The evacuation time estimates for the 0-2 mile evacuation zone are only a few minutes less than those for the 0-5 mile zones.

For the eighty baseline evacuation scenarios, the NETVAC2 model results indicate that there would be no queuing (backup) on the evacuation road network during summer or winter, daytime or nighttime evacuations in either normal or adverse weather conditions. Consequently, the total times estimated for evacuation are only slighty longer than the total public response times.

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e.2

6.2 SELECTED SPECIAL FACILITIES EVACUATION TIMES I

l Evacuation time estimates and feasibility analyses for selected special facilities in the Byron Station EPZ are presented in Annex A.

6-3

s 6.3 SPECIAL F.VINTS EVACUATION TIMES r

Special Event evacuation times were analyzed for: Autumn on Parade, which takes place in the Byron EPZ once a year in October; concurrent peak attendance racing events at the Byron Dragway and the Moto Sports Park which could occur on a weekend during the summer; and a special evacuation senstivity analysis of transient populations at the recreational areas within the EPZ on a summer holiday to determine the sensitivity of the evacuation time estimate to recreational area

[ populations, as discussed in Section 3.4.

-. The results of the Special Event evacuation simulation for Autumn on Parade produced an estimated evacuation time of 191 minutes; which is identical to the evacuation time for the full EPZ winter day, normal weather general population scenario. These results demonstrate the adequacy of the Byron vicinity's roadway network capacity.

The special event peak attendance evacuation simulation for 15,000 visitors at Byron Dragway and 10,000 visitors at Moto Sports Park results in a total evacuation time of 241 minutes, which is 50 minutes greater than the full EPZ summer day, normal weather general population scenario. As discussed in Section 4.3, this analysis assumed a traffic control point at the intersection of River and German Church Roads.

I The results of the special evacuation sensitivity analysis of transient populations at the recreational areas within the EPZ produced an evacuation time of 201 minutes, which is only 10 minutes longer than the estimated evacuation time for the full EPZ summer day, normal weather general population scenario.

6-4 l _ _ _ _ _ - _ _ _ _

s It is important to note that,.due to the favorable roadway capacity to population ratio, the evacuation time estimates are relatively insensitive to changes in population.

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6.4 EVACUATION CONFIRMATION TIMES

. Evacuation confirmation time, as defined by NUREG 0654, is the time required for emergency service vehicles to traverse the roads within the primary evacuation zones, and to confirm that all persons desiring to evacuate have done so. The evacuation confirmation times have been 1:

estimated by assuming that emergency service vehicles will drive the evacuated areas, road by road, at 6 miles per hour. This speed allows for the effective use of public address systems. This speed is about

[ twice the walking speed of an adult.11 Based upon discussions with State of Illinois ESDA personnel, at least 15 vehicles were deemed to be available for confirmation of evacuation. Accordingly, that number of

. vehicles was assumed for this study. The time estimates for evacuation confirmation are presented in Table 6-3.

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- - - umme - - i .i m .. I TABLE 6-1

SUMMARY

OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES SUMMER l

Gene ra l Public Evacuation i Times (minutes)f3)

Prima ry Evacuation Population (2) Vehicles Daytime Nichttime Zone ( 1 ) Daytime Ni.ghttime l Daytime Nichttime No rma l Adve rse No rma l Adverse 0-2 mile A,B 10,257 2,057 4,791 789 184 216 96 105 0-5 mile A,B,C 16,972 6,971 7,417 2,532 188 223 105(5) 113(5) 0-5 mi1e A,B,D 10,649 2,449 4,925 923 184 216 96 105 0-5 mile A,B,E 19,027 7,147 7,930 2,634 191 225 105 110 0-5 mile A,B,F 10,749 2,409 4,974 910 184 216 96 105 0-10 mile A-F,G 31,362 17,241 12,474 6,143 191 225 108(5) 114(5) 0-10 mile A-F,H 28,856 15,010 11,657 5,403 191 225 107 114 l

l 0-10 mile A-F,1 35,040 19,265 14,148 6,880 191 225 107(6) 114(6) 1 1 0-10 mile A-F,J 29,059 15,238 11,732 5,491 191 225 107 114 Full EPZ A-J (4) 44,439 28,339 17,392 10,021 191 225 108(7) 114(7)

NOTES:

(1) See Figure 2-1 for evacuation study area locations.

(2) Population is composed of pe rma nent population and applicable t rans ient and special facilities populations as discussed in Section 3.1.

(3) All times have been rounded to nearest minute.

(4) See footnote (5) on Table 1-1.

(5) The Quality Metal Finishing Co. In Byron has an estimated shutdown time of 90 minutes. Consequently, the nighttime evacuation time estimate for those employees needed to shut down the facility could increase to 125 and 135 minutes for norma l and adverse weather cond i tions, respectively.

(6) The Acme Resin Co. outside Oregon has an estimated shutdown time of 120 minutes. Consequently, the nighttime evacua tion time estimate for those employees needed to shut down the facility could increase to 145 and 155 minutes for norma l and adverse weather conditions, respectively.

The Pine Crest Nursing Home in Mt. Morris has a facility mobilization time of 120 minutes. Consequently, the nighttime evacuation time estimate for this facility could increase to 140 and 142 minutes, respectively.

(7) As discussed in notes 5 and 6 above, the Acme Resin Co., Quality Metal finishing Co. and Pine Crest Nursing Home may have longer evacuation times than estimated for the general public. The nighttime evacuation time estimates for these facilities may increase to 125-145 minutes during normal weather conditions and 135-155 minutes during adverse weather conditions.

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-- - umu m rR TABLE 6-2

SUMMARY

OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES WINTER Gene ra l Public Evacuation Times (minutes 1f31 Population (2) Vehicles Daytime Nichttime Primary Evacuation No rma l Adve rse Zone (1) Daytime Nichttime Daytime Niahttime No rma l Adverse 0-2 mile A,8 4,257 1,457 1,988 588 184 216 96 105 0-5 mile A,B,C 8,971 4,871 3,563 1,857 188 223 105(5) 113(5) 4,649 1,849 2,122 722 184 216 96 105 0-5 mile A,B,D 11,883 6,402 4,489 2,389 191 224 105 110 0-5 mi1e A,B,E 4,709 1,809 2,159 709 191 216 96 105 0-5 mile A,B,F l

0-10 mile A-F,C 22,964 14,846 7,955 5,416 191 225 106(5) 113(5) l l

19,621 12,590 7,095 4,627 191 225 106 113 l 0-10 mile A-F,H l

0-10 mile A-F,1 24,248 15,565 9,015 5,771 191 225 106(6) 113(6) l 20,296 12,993 7,255 4,772 191 225 106 113 0-10 mile A-F,J 24,314 12,213 8,847 191 225 106(7) 113(7)

Full EPZ A-J(4) 34,806 NOTES:

( (1) See Figure 2-1 for evacuation study area locations.

(2) Population is composed of permanent population and applicable transient and special facilities populations as discussed in Section 3.2.

(3) All times have been rounded to nearest minute.

(4) See footnote (5) on Table 1-1.

Quality Metal Finishing Co. In Byron has an estimated shutdown time of 90 minutes. Consequently, the nighttime (5) The evacuation time estimate for those employees needed to shut down the facility could increase to 125 and 135 minutes for no rma l and adverse weather conditions, respectively.

(6) The Acme Resin Co. Outside Oregon has an estimated shutdown time of 120 minutes. Consequently, the nighttime evacuation time estimate for those employees needed to shut down the facility could increase to 145 and 155 minutes for normal and adverse weather conditions, respectively.

The Pine Crest Nursing Home in Mt. Morris has a facility mobilization time of 120 minutes. Consequently, the nighttime evacuation time estimate for this facility could increase to 140 and 142 minutes, respectively.

(7) As havediscussed .in notestimes longer evacuation 5 and 6 above, the Acme Resin Co., Quality Metal Finishing Co. and Pine Crest Nursing Home may than estimated for the general public. The nighttime evacuation time estimates for these facilities may increase to 125-145 minutes during normal weather conditions and 135-155 minutes during adverse weather conditions.

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l TABLE 6-3

j. EVACUATION CONFIRMATION TIMES BY W- . PRIMARY EVACUATION ZONE (1)

(-. Primary Evacuation Zone (2) Evacuation C'onfirmation Time (3) 0-2 mile!A, B 17 0-5 mile A, B,.C 38

('l :0-5 mile A, B, D- 30 0-5 mile A, B, E 38

(- 0-5' mile A,' B, F 35 L 0-10' mile A-F, G 157 0-10 mile A-F,'H_ 161 0-10 mile A-F, I 152 152-(- 0-10' mile A-F, J-Full EPZ A-J(4)' 349 NOTES:

(1) Evacuation confirmation times are required by NUREG-0654, Appendix 4.

.(2) See Figure 2-1 for evacuation study area locations which comprise -

the primary evacuation zones.

(3) Evacuation confirmation times are rounded to the nearest minute.

(4) See footnote (5) on Table 1-1.

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.SECTION 7 D

w CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Based upon;dhis evacuation time estimate study, the entire population

- within-the plume exposure pathway EPZ for Byron Station (including the

{ general ~ public .and' special facilities) could be evacuated in 3 to "4 hours4.62963e-5 days <br />0.00111 hours <br />6.613757e-6 weeks <br />1.522e-6 months <br />. -Except as.: noted in the following paragraph, the longest daytime . evacuation time estimate for the EPZ in normal weather is zl91 minutes; -.the longest daytime adverse weather evacuation time L estimate' for -the EPZ is 225' minutes. :The longest nighttime evacuation time estimate for the EPZ'in normal weather is 108 minutes; the- longest nighttime: _ adverse weather evacuation time estimate for the EPZ is 114 minutes. The nighttime evacuation time estimates for Pine Crest Nursing Home,. the Acme Resin,Co. and the Quality Metal Finishing Co.

could increase ~ to between 125 - and 145 minutes during normal weather conditions;'and. to: between 135 and 155 minutes under-adverse weather conditions.

s For .the eighty baseline evacuation scenarios,-'the NETVAC2 model results C' indicate .that there would be no queuing -(backup) on the evacuation road .

( ~

networkc during summer-;or' winter, daytime or nighttime evacuations in

~either normal or adverse weather conditions. For the .Special . Event f ' evacuation scenarios, :the NETVAC2~ model results' indicate that there-D<

Y

-would be only one location in which ' queuing in the evacuation road network .could affect the evacuation time estimates. Specifically, the

[m; ;-

'Special-Event evacuation simulation of' concurrent large' weekend ' events

atLthe; Byron Dragway and Moto Sports Park indicates queuing along German h

-Church Road south of the' town of Byron including the. intersection -of 7 i h: .

s Route 72, River Road, and German Church Road. Accordingly, Ceco is L- . recommending to Ogle County emergency planning officials that they consider giving this intersection. priority traffic control during an

(' emergency should peak activities at the Byron Dragway and the Moto 5 ports . Park occur simultaneously. This will result in an estimated etucuation time of 241 minutes for this scenario.

(. The conclusions and recommendations of this study have been provided to Ogle county and State of Illinois Emergency Services and Disaster Agency

[ officials.

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REFERENCES

1. Criteria for Preparation and Evaluation of Radiological Emergency Response Plans and Preparedness in Support of Nuclear Power Plants, NUREG 0654/ FEMA-REP-1, Rev. 1, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Federal Emergency Management Agency, November 1980.

2. NETVAC2, A State of the Art Computer Evacuation Simulation Model, User's Manual, HMM Associates, Waltham, MA, 1980.

3. Highway capacity Manual, Highway Research Board, Special Report 87, Highway Research Board of the Division of Engineering and Industrial Research, National Academy of Sciences - National Research Council, Washington, DC, 1965.

4. Interim Material on Highway Capacity, Transportation Research Board, Circular 212, 1980.

5. The Environmental Influence of Rain on Freeway Capacity, Transportation Research Board, Highway Research Record No. 321, 1970.

6. Testimony of Dr. Thomas Urbanik II on League and Daare/ Safe Consolidated Emergency Planning Contentions 2(c), 2(e), and 2(k)

I before the Atomic Safety and Licensing Board, in the matter of Commonwealth Edison Company (Byron Station, Units 1 and 2), Docket Nos. 50-454, 50-455.

I 7. Local Climatological Data-1976, Rockford, Illinois, U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

8. Illinois Plan for Radiological Accidents (IPRA), Byron Volume VI, Revision 0, 2-84.

9. U.S. Bureau of the Census, Census of Population and Housing, Summary Characteristics for Governmental Units, PHC 80-3-15, 1982.

10. U.S. Bureau of the Census, Census of Population and Housing, I Provisional Estimates of Social, Economic, and Housing Characteristics, PHC 80-51-1, March 1982.

11. Transportation and Traffic Engineering Handbook, The Institute of Transportation Engineers, 1976.

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I' APPENDIX A NETVAC2 DESCRIPTION c

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R Il L-APPENDIX A NETVAC2 DESCRIPTION This -Appendix describes the general structure of the NETVAC2 Model and h three of its major features: the dynamic route selection, the priority

' treatment ~ of flow at unsignalized intersections, and the capacity

' calculation.

General Structure NETVAC2 is organized in four basic units (procedures): the main program, the data procedure, the preprocessor, and the simulator. This section briefly explains the functions of each of these units. The main program controls the entire execution. It starts by calling on the data

[! -procedure, which reads in the data and execution instructions, then-

. calls in the preprocessor, which performs some~ preliminary capacity

' calculations. Next, the main program controls the simulation itself and

-the reporting of the network conditions at specified intervals including 7- the plotting. This program also controls the rest of the reports and

-the length of the simulation by terminating the program once the network

= -.is empty-(or after a specified time).

The -data procedure reads in the network, the parameters and the. options 0_ -to'be used in the run.- This subroutine uses a special. list processing

. stechnique to store .the network; the ' link . list is stored with both

' forward and backward pointers. In other words,'all the links pointing h into and out of any given node can be easily identified at any moment

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I'u. during the simulation. This list processing technique is one of the keys to the model's computational efficiency.

{. On request, the data proc'edure performs a set of checks en the network

{ ,

to ensure connectivity and validity. It also performs a set of checks on the input data to identify coding errors. It is expected that these

. checks would be performed only once for each site studied. If errors are found, the routine keeps scanning the network until it.has been

[ completely checked and tr.1 run is then terminated. The data procedure also produces a set of warnings if unlikely (but possible) situations

{

are encountered.

[ The processor procedure converts the physical description of each link into measures of capacity, speed and density. For each specified type

{

of link, the preprocessor computes two types of capacity:

. section capacity - which is the capacity along the link-regardless of downstream intersection restrictions; and

(

. approach capacity - which is the capacity of the link to handle vehicles approaching the downstream intersection.

[' Section capacitie's are associated with highway sections whereas the traffic flow through intersections is controlled by the approach

{

capacity. NETVAC2 computes both capacities since they serve different

( purposes. The section capacity serves as an upper bound on the flow that can move along a link, restricting the number of vehicles that will A-3

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L h reach the intersection during a simulation interval and the number of vehicles that can be loaded onto a link from the intersection. The approach capacity, on the other hand, limits the number of cars that can actually move through the intersection. Vehicles that reach the intersection but cannot move through it are assigned to a queue.

[ The NETVAC2 simulator includes two separate procedures, the link pass and the node pass. The link pass handles the flow on the links while

.the node pass handles the transfer of flow from link to link.

[ Dynamic Route Selection NETVAC2 does not use a pre-specified set of turning movements at each intersection; instead, the turning movements are determined at each

{.

simulation interval as a function of the changing traffic conditions and direction of the links. Drivers approaching an intersection are assumed to make a choice of outbound (away from the intersection) links based on h how fast this outbound link can get them to safety. This, in turn, is a function of--the direction of the outbound links (away from the nuclear plant or hazard area) and the traffic conditions on the outbound links.

The route selection procedure used in NETVAC2 reflects the two above-mentioned choice criteria through a user-supplied " preference

[ factor" which is specified for each link and the speeds on each of the outbound links. To facilitate the explanation of the route choice mechanism, let PF denote the preference factor for the j-th outbound h . link at'some intersection. In other words, the relative 'a priori'

{ A-4

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W preference of link j is PF xPF jk where k the sum goes over all the links emanating out of the node under consideration (including j). The choice probability, or the share of drivers choosing an outbound link j out of a given intersection at (simulated) time t, P (t), is determined as a function of the preference factors and the speeds on all the outbound links are:

PF x U (t)

I j(U} " I kPFk x Uk (t)

I where U j(t) is the speed on link j at time t. Note that driver behavior during an evacuation is assumed to be myopic in that only information regarding the immediate outbound links at each intersection is assumed to influence route choice decisions. Also note that the P (t)s j are computed for each incoming link separately due to turning prohibitions from some links into some other links (a reference to the incoming link was omitted from the notation of the choice probability for clarity of exposition).

I The Priority Treatment Even under evacuation conditions, it can be expected that traffic from certain links approaching an unsignalized intersection would have the right of way over incoming traffic from lower priority approaches.

Since it is not clear that such priority would correspond to the existing intersection controls, the input to NETVAC2 includes a A-5 s

A

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F' user-specified link priority parameter. This is a binary parameter indicating primary or secondary priority of a link.

The volume of vehicles being processed (at every intersection and at each simulation interval) and transferred from inbound to outbound links is subject to several constraints wiiich determine the effective capacity of the intersection. During the 'i.nulation, traffic coming in from all primary priority links is assigned to the intersection first, subject I only to the intersection capacity constraints. Lower priority traffic, l

on the other hand, is restricted by both the capacity of the intersection and the effdct of the higher priority traffic.

The capacity of the secondary priority approaches is a function of the gap acceptance behavior of the minor' approach drivers and the headway distribution in the' primary apprcaches' flow. To model the capacity of secondary priority approaches, a capacity allocation problem procedure is utilized. The secondary priority approaches emit traffic only under one of the following co.nditions: -

first; if there is residual intersection capacity from -the primary priority traffic, flow can be emitted into the inttrsection frcm the secondary priority road subject to the residual capacity corstraint. Second, if the residual capacity t s is zero, NETVAC2 provides s'ctae small capacity for the lower priority L

approaches to allow for " sneak-in", effects.

Note that the priority treatment applies only to unsignalized i

intersections and that botn t' j pes of approaches (primary and secondary A-6 iY ,,

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priority) are treated identically in the model in all respects except l

for the added constraint on the flow from secondary priority approaches.

l Capacity Calculations The capacity of a transportation facility is the maximum flow that can go through the facility. NETVAC2 determines capacity in two stages:

first, the preprocessor assigns a section capacity and an approach capacity to each link in the network. Second, approach capacities are updated throughout the simulation depending on the conditions at certain points in the simulation.

The capacity calculations are based on the Highway Research Board's Highway Capacity Manual (HCM). Following this reference, the section capacity is calculated in the preprocessor for links with and without physical separation between opposing directions while the approach capacity is calculated as a function of the physical conditions (width, parking, turning pockets, etc.), environmental conditions (area type, -

peak hour and load factors), traffic characteristics (traffic mix and percentage of turning movements), and approach type. Derivations of these calculations are outlined in the users manual for the model.

As mentioned before, the approach capacities calculated in the preprocessor are not the actual bounds on the flow. NETVAC2 adjusts the approach capacity continuously in order to reflect the changing vehicular movements resulting from the dynamic route selection. The A-7

s (7

' i . ?

it '(

capacity of the i- th approach coming into an intersection at simulation interval t, C g (t) is given by:

1 r ., 's 4'

, C (t).= C x AL(t) x AR(t) where C is the standard capacity of link i calculated by the s preprocessor.'and AL(t) and AR(t) are the correction factors for left and right turning movements, respectively. These correction factors are a function of. the percent of turning traffic, the approach width, and parking allowance, as suggested by the HCM. These factors do not apply I

when the turning traffic is using special turning lanes or turning

't I pockets. -

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N APPENDIX B EVACUATION NETWORK NODE IDENTIFICATION M

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APPENDIX B EVACUATION NETWORK NODE IDENTIFICATION Node Location 5 Rte. 64 & Church Rd.

6* Rte. 64 & Heridian Rd.

?* Lindenwood Rd. & Heridian Rd.

B* Church Rd. & Lindenwood Rd.

11* liolcomb Rd. & Church Rd.

12* Holcomb Rd. & Heridian Rd.

13* Rte. 72 & Heridian Rd.

14 Rte. 72 & Rothwell Rd.

15 Rte. 72 (Chicago St.) & Rte. 51 16 Rte. 72 & Stillman Rd.

17* Stillman Rd. & Holcomb Rd. (east of Stillman Rd.)

~18* Stillman Rd. & Holcomb Rd. (west of Stillman Rd.)

19* Holcomb Rd. & German Church Rd.

20* Hill St., Seventh St. & Pine St.

21* Rte. 64 & German Church Rd.

22* Rte. 64 & Chana Rd.

23* Chana Rd. & Brick Rd.

24* Brick Rd. & Stillman Rd.

28* Daysville Rd., Honey Creek Rd. & Lowden Rd.

29* Rte. 64 & Daysville Rd..

30 Rte. 64 & River Rd.

31 Rte. 64 (Washington St.) & Third St.

32* Third St. & Gale St.

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APPENDIX B (Cont)

D Node 7,ocation 33* ' Gale St. & Rte. 2 (Fourth St.)

34- Rte. 2' (Fourth St.) & Rte. 64 (Washington St.)

[.

35* Rte. 64 & Monroe St.

Rte. 64 & Ridge Rd.

{ 36*-

37* Ridge Rd. & Oregon Trail 38* Pines Rd. & Ridge Rd. (east of Ridge Rd.)

.39* Pines-Rd. & Ridge Rd. (west of Ridge Rd.)

[ 41* Brayton Rd. & S. McKendrie Ave.

42. N. McKendrie Ave. & Rte. 64 (E. Hitt St.)

43* Rte. 64 (E. Hitt St.) & Ogle Ave.

(- 44* Mt. Morris Rd. & West Grove Rd.

45* West Grove Rd. & Leaf River Rd.

~*

46 Rte. 2 & Mud Creek Rd.

47* Rte. 72 & Mt. Morris Rd.

't 49* Rte. 72 & Main St.

50* Rte. 72 & Pecatonica Rd.

(_

-51* Rte. 2 & Rte. 72 52* Rte. 2 (Main St.) & Tower Rd.

53* Second St. & Tower Rd.

[L 54 Union St. & Rte. 2 (Main St.)

55* Second St. & Union St.

{,

56* Tower Rd. & Mill Rd. (east of Tower Rd.)

[. 57* Tower Rd. & Mill Rd.

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L p-L APPENDIX B (Cont)

[' Node Location 58* Montague Rd. & Tower Rd.

59* Pecatonica Rd. & Montague Rd.

[: ~

-62* Rte. 72, German Church Rd. & River Rd.

63* Rte. 72 & Kishwaukee Rd.

64* Rte. 2 & Kennedy Hill Rd.

65*- Kennedy Hill Rd. & McGregor Rd.

66* McGregor Rd. & Meridian Rd.

67.* Rte. 2 & Meridian Rd.

68* Meridian Rd. & Kishwaukee Rd.

[.-

69* Stillman Valley Rd. & Meridian Rd.

{ 74 Montague Rd. & Osborne Rd.

75* Westfield Rd., Kennedy Hill Rd. & Montague Rd.

86* Stillman Valley Rd. & Rothwell Rd.

88 Rte. 64, 1 block north of Monroe St.

.89: Rte. 2 (Fourth St.) & Ford St.

'90* Jackson St. , between Rte. 2. & Rte. 64 91*' Rte. 2 &_Camling Rd.

h -92* Rte. 72 & Junction Rd.

93* Rte. 2 & Castle Rd.

[. 94* Rte. 64 (W. Hitt St.) & S. Reyno'lds Ave.

103*- Rte. 64 & White Rock Rd.

[)

'104 Lindenwood Rd. &.Stillman Valley Rd.

h .105* Brick Rd. & German Church Rd.

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l APPENDIX B (Cont)

I.

Node Location

. 106* Honey Creek Rd. & Chana Rd.

107* ' Daysville Rd. (Daysville North City Limits) 108* ' River Rd. & Park Rd.

109* River Rd. & Spring Creek Rd. -

110* River Rd. & Devil's Lane 111* River Rd. & Ruorville Rd.

112* River Rd. & Byron Dragway Entrance 113* Ash Rd. & German Church Rd.

114* German Church Rd. & N. Site Access Rd.

115* German Church Rd. & S. Site Access Rd.

116* Rte. 72 & Bradley St.

117* Stillman Rd. & Valley Dr.

118* Rte. 72 & Armour Rd.

120* Holcomb Rd. & Junction Rd.

121 Rothwell Rd & Edson Rd.

z 122 Tower Rd. & Byron High School Entrance 124* Mt. Morris Rd. & Midtown Rd.

125 West Grove Rd. & Adeline Rd.

129* Kendall Rd. & Montague Rd.

801** Rte. 51, north of Utility Rd.

802** Rte. 72, west of Blackwood Rd.

803** Rte 51 & Big Mound Rd.

804** Rte. 51 & Holcomb Rd.

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APPENDIX B-(Cont)

U L

Node Location 805**' Rte. 51 & Lindenwood Rd.

806** Rte. 64 & First St.

807** Chana Rd. & Flagg Rd.

808**- Flagg Rd. & Daysville Rd.

809** Hay Rd. & Lowden Rd.

810** Rte. 2, north of Nashua Township line

-811** Ridge Rd. & Henry Rd.

-812** Pines Rd. & Columbian Rd.

813** Canada Rd. & Lowell Park

(-

814** Rte. 64, east of Maple Grove Rd.

815** West Grove Rd., east of Cedar Rd.

816** Rte. 72, east of Adeline Rd.

[. 817**- Egan Rd. & Leaf River Rd.

818** Spielman Rd. & Montague Rd.

{

819** Pecatonica Rd. , south of Murphy Rd.

820**- Osborne Rd., south of Edwardsville Rd.

821** Westfield Rd., south of Edwardsville Rd.

822** Severson Rd._& Montague Rd.

~8 23** Meridian Rd., south of Tipple Rd.

824** Rte. 2 & Prairie Rd.

825**' Kishwaukee Rd. & Stillman Valley Rd.

h

Utilized as a, vehicle entry node.

- Utilized as a vehicle exit node located outside the EPZ.

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[ APPENDIX C NETVAC2 COMPUTER OUTPUT E

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APPENDIX C l

KEY TO NETVAC2 COMPUTER PRINTOUT LINK = Link identification number FRM = Upstream node number (A-node) for associated link TO =

Downstream node number (B-node) for associated link LEN = Link length in feet (A-node to B-node)

AW = Approach width in feet LW = Link lane width in feet SW = Lateral clearance or shoulder width in feet = Distance from edge of travel-way to obstructions along link midblock L = Number of lanes in direction of travel PR = Priority of movement along link, in reference to movement along intersecting links. Dominant or major link approaches are classified as Priority 1. Secondary (i.e., those link approaches controlled by stop signs, yield signs, etc.) approaches are generally classified as Priority 2.

LT = Lane type, classified as follows:

1 - One-way, no parking 2 - One-way, parking on one side 3 - One-way, parking on both sides 4 - Two way, no parking 5 - Two-way, with parking 6 - Rural divided highway, no parking 7 - Rural undivided highway, no parking I 8+ Freeways and expressways AT = Area type, classified as follows:

1 - Central business district 2 - Fringe 3 - Outer business district 4 - Residential PK = T - Parking along link permitted ljl F - Parking along link prohibited SPD = Free-flow or average speed over link in miles per hour 1

JAM = Jam Density or relative measure of link's carrying

, capacity in vehicles per mile C-2

s APPENDIX C (Cont)

I PRF = User preference or movement along each outbound link in terms of percentage. Preferences are initially assigned based upon free-flow conditions. Actual route assignments are calculated by the program, considering the assigned preferences as well as speed, density and capacity relationships.

FCAP = Link capacity per lane STR SPLT CAP

= Identifies node destination of straight movement from downstream node, and associated percent green signal time I (split) and intersection capacity.

RGT SPLT CAP

= Identifies node destination of right-turn movement from g

downstream node, and associated percent green signal time and special turning lane capacity, if applicable.

LFT SPLT CAP

= Identifies node destination of left-turn movement from downstream node, and associated percent green signal time and special turning lane capacity, if applicable.

DIAG SPLT CAP

= Identifies node destination of diagonal movement from downstrecm node, and associated percent green signal time and capacity.

l l

I C-3

w imme .

- mw NETHORM LISTING LINK FRH TO LEN AH , LH SH L PR LT AT PM SPD JAH PRF FCAP STR SPLT CAP RGT SPLT CAP LFT SPLT CAP DIAG SPLT CAP l 1 5 806 2690. 12. 11. 6. I 1 7 4 F 44. 147. 1.00 1600. 0 0.0 1299. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

2 6 103 10032. 11. 11. 6. I 1 7 4 F 44. 147. 1.00 1600. 5 0.0 1210. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

1120. 5 0.0 0. 11 0.0 C. 0 0.0 0.

3 7 8 16500. 10. 9. 6. I 1 7 4 F 40. 123. 0.90 1232. 805 0.0

0. 0 0.0 C.

4 6 10560. 9. 9. 6. I 1 7 4 F 36. 137. 0.10 1232. 0 0.0 1030. 0 0.0 0. 103 0.0 0 0.0 1030. 0 0.0 0. 806 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

. 5 8 5 12672. 9. 9. 2. 1 2 7 4 F 40. 117. 0.05 1168.

0 0.0 1030. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

6 805 13200. 9. 9. 4, 1 1 7 4 F 32. 150. 0.90 1200.

0.

7 11 8448. 9. 10. 6. I 1 7 4 F 32. 178. 0.05 1424. 0 0.0 1030. 120 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 I 1 7 4 F 32. 178. 1.00 1424. 804 0.0 1030. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

8 11 120 5280. 9. 10. 6.

0.

9 12 7 10560. 9. 9. 4. I 1 7 4 F 36. 133. 0.05 1200. 6 0.0 1030. 0 0.0 0. 8 0.0 0. 0 0.0 1030. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

10 11 15040. 9. 10. 2. I 1 7 4 F 36. 151. 0.90 1360. 120 0.0 11 13 15340, 9. 9. 4. I 1 7 4 F 36. 133. 0.05 1200. 0 0.0 1030. 118 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

I 1 7 4 F 24. 293, 1.00 1600. 14 0.0 1299. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

12 13 118 5280. 12. 12. 4.

0. 0 0.0 0.

13 14 121 14876. 9. 9. 6. I 1 7 4 F 32. 154. 0.05 1232. 86 0.0 1030. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 1299. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

143 92 1320G. 12. 12. 1. I 1 7 4 F 44.156. 0.95 1600. 15 0.0 0 0.0 0.

14 15 801 5000. 12. 12. 6. I 1 8 4 F 44. 145. 0.40 1600. 0 0.0 1600. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

I 1 7 4 F 40. 142. 0.20 1424. 0 0.0 1120. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

15 802 5000. 10. 10. 6.

0.

803 5300. 12. 12, I 1 8 4 F 44. 145. 0.40 1600. 0 0.0 1600. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 16 6.

17 16 13 3168. 12. 12. 6. I 1 7 4 F 24. 299. 0.75 1600. 118 0.0 1299. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

1030. 0 0.0 0. 60 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

18 69 14256. 9. 11. 2. I 1 7 4 F 36. 172. 0.25 1552. 86 0.0 0 0.0 0.

19 17 12 10032. 10. 10. 2. 1 1 7 4 F 36. 151. 0.75 1360. 31 0.0 1120. 7 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

1210. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

20 117 19008. 11. 11. 6. I 1 7 4 F 44. 147. 0.25 1600. 14 0.0 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

I 1 7 4 F 40. 142. 0.75 1424. 117 0.0 1120. 12 0.0 0.

21 18 17 1056. 10. 10. 6.

il SP 132 104 11560. 11. 11.

22 19 18 18216. 10. 9.

4.

I I

1 1

7 7

4 4

F 40. 162. 0.25 1600. 24 0.0 F 40. 120. o.25 1200. 0 0.0 1210. 0 0.0 1120. 104 0.0 0.

0. 17 0 0.0 0.0 0.

0.

0 0.0 0 0.0 0.

0.

1299. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

23 105 13464. 12. 10. 6. I 1 7 4 F 32. 178. 0.75 1424. 21 0.0

0. 0 0.0 0.

24 20 38 18480. 10. 10. 6. I 1 7 4 F 32. 178. 0.10 1424. 0 0.0 1120. 0 0.0 0. 39 0.0 1 1 7 4 F 32. 224. 0.90 1600. 810 0.0 1478. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

l 145 93 15340. 14. 12. 6.

0 0.0 25 21 29 9240. 11. 12. 6. I 1 7 4 F 44. 163. 0.20 1600. 30 0.0 1210. 0 0.0 0. 107 0.0 0. 0.

I l 26 22 17424. 11. 12. 6. I 1 7 4 F 44. 163. 0.80 1600. 6 0.0 1210. 106 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

2, 1 1 7 4 F 44. 141. 0.90 1552. 103 0.0 1210. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

27 22 6 13464. 11. 11.

0.

28 106 7920. 10. 10. 6. I 1 7 4 F 44. 129. 0.10 1424. 807 0.0 1120. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0 0.0 0.

29 23 22 7128. 11. 11, 2. 1 1 7 4 F 36. 172. 1.00 1552. 106 0.0 1210. 0 0.0 0. 6 0.0 0.

0 0.0 0.

30 24 23 4224, 9. 9. 6. I 1 7 4 F 32. 154. 1.00 1232. 0 0.0 1030. 0 0.0 0. 22 0.0 0.

0 0.0 1210. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

31 28 808 22176. 11. 11. 6. I 1 7 4 F 44. 147. 0.50 1600.

0 6.9 0.

32 809 19270. 10, 10. 4. I 1 7 4 F 24. 232. 0.50 1392. 0 0.0 1120. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

l I 1 7 4 F 36. 180. 0.45 1600. 31 0.0 1568. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

33 29 30 1584. 15. 11. 6.

C. 0 0.0 34 21 8976. 11. 12. 6. I 1 7 4 F 44. 163. 0.45 1600. 22 0.0 1210. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

1. I 1 7 4 F 40. 171. 0.10 1600. 28 0.0 1210. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

35 107 8976. 11. 12.

36 30 29 1534. 10. II. 6. I 1 7 4 F 36. 180. 0.05 1600. 21 0.0 1120. 107 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

37 31 1320. 13. 13. 1. 2 1 4 3 F 36.178. 0.95 1600. 34 0.57 543. 0 0.0 0. 32 0.57 960.

0 0.0 0.

0 0.0 0 0.0 0.

0.

38 31 32 2640. 16. 12. 3. I 1 5 3 T 24. 259. 0.05 1552. 0 0.0 940. 33 0.0 0.

0 0.0 39 34 1056. 11. 12. 2. 2 1 4 3 F 24. 256. 0.95 1536. 35 0.44 418. 0 0.0 0. 33 0.44 960.

0 0.0 0.

0.

40 32 31 2640. 22. 12. 3. I 1 5 3 T 24. 259. 0.05 1552. 0 0.0 1330. 0 0.0 0. 34 0.43 960.

I 1 4 3 F 20. 310. 0.95 1552. 0 0.0 1465. 34 0.0 0. 20 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

41 33 1320. 17. 12. 3.

42 33 34 2640. 12. 12. 5. I 1 4 3 F 32. 190. 0.05 15C4. 0 0.0 990. 0 0.0 0. 35 0.56 960. 0 0.0 0.

43 20 1530. 13. 13. 6. I 1 7 4 F 32. 246. 0.95 1600. 93 0.0 1309. 38 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0 0.0 0.

C.

44 34 33 2640. 16. 12. 5. I 1 4 3 F 32. 190. 0.10 1504. 20 0.0 1370. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

0 0.0 45 35 2643. 11. 12. 6. I 1 7 4 F 32. 224. 0.90 1600. C8 0.0 1210. 0 0.0 0. 37 0.0 0.

C. 0 0.0 0.

46 35 37 17160. 10. 12. 6. 1 1 7 4 F 40. 179. 0.10 1600. 0 0.0 1120. 0 0.0 0. 38 0.0 0.

138 SS 2640. 12. 12. 6. I 1 7 4 F 44. 163. 0.90 1600. 36 0.0 1299. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

LIM Fmt VO LE?t #JI LH S11 L PR LT AT PM S'2D JAft PWF FCAP STR SPLT CAP RGT SPLT CAP LFT SPLT CAP DIAG SPLT CAP 47 36 37 10032. 10. 9. 6. I 1 7 4 F 36. 137. 0.05 1232. 38 0.0 1120. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

43 43 77:0. 12. 12. 6. I 1 7 4 F 32. 224. 0.95 1600. 42 0.0 1 99. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

47 37 33 6500. 10. 11. 6. 1 1 7 4 F 36. 100. 1.00 1600. 39 0.0 11:0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

50 33 39 2340. 10. 10. 1. I 1 7 4 F 40. 134. 1.00 1344. 811 0.0 1120. 812 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

51 39 812 105:0. 12. 10. 4. 1 1 7 4 F 40. 139. 0.50 1392. 0 0.0 1299. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 C.

52 811 10560. 10. 10. 6. I 1 7 4 F 40.142. 0.50 1424. 0 0.0 1100. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

53 41 813 15340. 11. 11. 1. I 1 7 4 F 32. 192. 0.25 1536. 0 0.0 1210. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

54 42 IS40. 16. 12. 6. 1 2 7 4 F 24, 299. 0.75 1600. 124 0.0 1600. 0 0.0 0. 94 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

55 42 124 7920. 11. 10. 4. I 1 7 4 F 36. 199. 0.05 1600. 44 0.0 1210. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

147 94 1C40. 15. 13. 6. I 1 7 4 F 36. 219. 0.95 1600. 814 0.0 1543. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0, 56 43 42 1056. 15. 12. 6. I 1 7 4 F 24. 299. 1.00 1600. 94 0.0 1560. 124 0 9 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

57 44 47 10550. 12. 12. 5. I 1 7 4 F 40. 178. 0.50 1600. 0 0.0 1 99. 0 0.0* 0. 016 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

53 125 10550. 10. 10. 6. I 1 7 4 F 40. 142. 0.50 1424. 815 0.0 1120. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

59 45 44 7656. 12. 10. 6. 1 1 7 4 F 40. 140. 0.50 1424. 125 0.0 1299. 47 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

60 49 11000. 12. 10. 6. I 1 7 4 F 40. 140. 0.50 1424. 817 0.0 1299. 0 0.0 0. 47 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

61 46 43 21643. 14. 11. 6. I 1 7 4 F 44. 147. 0.75 1600. 42 0.0 1478. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

136 89 10550. 15. 12. 2. 1 1 4 3 F 44. 140. 0.25 1536. 34 0.0 1275. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

62 47 816 10560. 10. 10. 6. 1 1 7 4 F 44. 163. 1.00 1600. 0 0.0 1299. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

63 49 47 8440. 12. 11. 6. I 1 7 4 F 32. 202. 0.90 1600. 816 0.0 1299. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

64 817 22768. 10. 11. 6. I 1 7 4 F 32. 202. 0.05 1600. 0 0.0 1 99. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

65 45 11030. 10. 10. 6. I 1 7 4 F 40. 142. 0.05 14:4. 0 0.0 1120. 44 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

66 50 59 26400. 11. 12. 6. I 1 7 4 F 44, 163. 0.05 1600. 819 0.0 1210. 0 0.0 0. 818 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

67 49 13:00. 12. 12. 6. I 1 7 4 F 36. 199. 0.95 1600. 47 0.0 1299. 817 0.0 0. 45 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

6S 51 50 211 0. 12. 12. 6. I 1 7 4 F 44. 163. 0.75 1600. 49 0.0 1299. 59 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

134 91 15400. 13. 11. 2. 1 1 7 4 F 44. 141. 0.25 1552. 46 0.0 13S9. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

69 52 51 4:04. 11. 11. 6. 1 1 7 4 F 44. 147. 0.20 1600. 50 0.0 1210. 0 0.0 0. 91 0.0 0. 0 1.0 0.

70 53 1CRS. 11. 11. 6. I 1 4 3 F 24 253. 0.20 1520. 122 0.0 895. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

j3 0 0.0 0.

sn 71 54 2112. 21. 12. O. I 1 5 3 T 28. 215. 0.60 1504. 64 0.0 1265. 62 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

72 53 5: 1840. 11. 11. 6. I 1 4 3 F 24. 253. 0.50 1520. 0 0.0 875. 51 0.0 0, 54 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

73 122 13:0. 11. 11. 6. I 1 4 3 F 16. 380. 0.50 1500. 56 0.0 895. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

74 54 60 1534. 10. 9. 2. I 1 7 4 F 24. 195. 0.10 1168. 0 0.0 1120. 0 0.0 0. 63 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

75 64 13200. 12, 10. 6. 1 1 7 4 F 40. 179. 0.43 1600. 67 0.0 1:99. 0 0.0 0. 65 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

76 5 2112. 21. 12. O. I 1 5 3 T 08. 215. 0.45 1504. 51 0.0 1265. 53 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

77 55 53 2112. 17. 12. O. I 1 5 3 T 20. 301. 0.50 1504. 0 0.0 1003. 122 0.0 0. 52 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

73 54 1504. 21. 12. O. I 1 5 3 T 24. 251. 0.50 1504. 62 0.0 1265. 52 0.0 0. 64 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

79 56 1 2 1300. 11. 10. 6. I 1 4 3 F 16. 356. 0.50 1424. 53 0.0 675. 0 0.0 C. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

80 57 0643. 15. 10. 6. I 1 4 3 F 40. 142. 0.50 1424. 0 0.0 1275. 53 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

81 57 56 0640. 10. 10. 6. I 1 4 3 F 40.140. 0.25 1424. 0 0.0 800. 102 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

82 53 23760. 11. 11. 6. I 1 4 3 F 40. 152. 0.75 1500. 0 0.0 C95. 74 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

83 SS 109 1018. 11. 10. 6. I 1 7 4 F 36. 153. 0.40 1424. 59 0.0 1:10. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

C4 74 1103. 11. 10. 6. I 1 7 4 F 36. 153. 0.60 1404. 75 0.0 1210. 0 0.0 0. 800 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

85 59 018 5080. 10. 10. 6. I 1 7 4 F 40. 140. 0.50 14 4. 0 0.0 11 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0, 86 819 2904. 10. 10. 6. I 1 7 4 F 40. 142. 0.50 14 4. 0 0.0 1100. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

87 62 63 6072. 12. 12. 4. I 1 7 4 F 40. 176. 0.50 1600. 116 0.0 1299. 0 0.0 0. 68 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

83 54 1534. 21. 11. 2. I 1 5 3 T 24. 243. 0.50 1456. 0 0.0 1:65. 64 0.0 0. 52 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

C9 63 116 3148. 12. 12. 6. I 1 7 4 F 36. 199. 0.75 1600. 16 0.0 1299. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

90 68 20704. 11. 10. 3. I 1 7 4 F 36. 153. 0.25 1376. 825 0.0 1210. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

91 64 65 12672. 10. 10. 6. I 1 7 4 F 44, 129. 0.10 1424. 75 0.0 1120. '66 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

92 67 02176. 11. 12. 6. I 1 7 4 F 44. 163. 0.90 1600. 824 0.0 1210. 0 0.0 0. 66 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

93 65 66 16363. 10. 10. 6. I 1 7 4 F 44. 129. 0.10 14:4. 0 0.0 1120. 0 0.0 0. 823 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

94 75 7392. 11. 10. 6. I 1 7 4 F 44. 129. 0.90 1424. 821 0.0 1210. 802 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

95 66 823 5303. 11. 11. 6. I 1 7 4 F 44. 147. 1.00 1600. 0 0.0 1210. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

95 47 66 1843, 11. 11. 6. I 1 7 4 F 44. 147. 0.10 1600. 823 0.0 1210. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

. 97 804 4752. 11. 11. 6. I 1 7 4 F 44. 147. 0.90 1600. 0 0.0 1210. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

90 63 C 5 11030. 11. 12. 6. I 1 7 4 F 44. 163. 1.00 1600. 0 0.0 1210. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

99 69 68 5000. 12. 10. 6. I 1 7 4 F 44. 129. 0.50 1424. 0 0.0 1099. 825 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

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LINH FRM TO LEN AH LH SM L PR LT AT PM SPD JAH FRF FCAP STR SPLT CAP RGT SPLT CAP LFT SPLT CAP DIAG SPLT CAP 100 86 10032. 9. 9. 6. I 1 7 4 F 36. 137. 0.50 1232. 825 0.0 1030. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

. 101 74 8:0 4483. 9. 10. 6. I 1 7 4 F 44. 129. 0.50 1424. 0 0.0 1030. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

102 75 10560. 11. 11. 6. 1 1 7 4 F 44. 147. 0.50 1600. 822 0.0 1210. 0 0.0 0. 821 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

103 75 821 2640. 11. 10. 6. I 1 7 4 F 44. 129. 0.50 1404. 0 0.0 1210. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

104 822 4:04. 11. 11. 6. I 1 7 4 F 44. 147. 0.50 1600. 0 0.0 1:10. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 3. 0 0.0 0.

105 86 805 4336. 9. 9. 6. I 1 7 4 F 32. 154. 1.00 1232. 0 0.0 1030. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

139 83 36 174:4. 12. 12. 6. I 1 7 4 F 44. 163. 1.00 1600. 43 0.0 1299. 0 0.0 0. 37 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

137 89 34 42:0. 15. 12. 2. I 1 4 3 F 44. 140. 0.50 1536, 33 0.56 1275. 35 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

14: 44 10560. 13. 12. 2. I 1 7 4 F 44.157. 0.50 1600. 0 0.0 1389. 0 0.0 0. 43 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

140 90 SS 2000. 12. 12. 6. 1 1 7 4 F 32. 224 0.50 1600. 0 0.0 1299. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 36 0.0 1299.

141 89 2000. 12. 12. 6. I 1 7 4 F 32. 204. 0.50 1600. 0 0.0 1299. 34 0.0 0. 46 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

i 133 91 46 16000. 13. 11, 2. I 1 7 4 F 44. 141. 0.50 1552. 89 0.0 1389. 43 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

l 135 51 15580. 11, 11. 2. I 1 7 4 F 44. 141. 0.50 1552. 0 0.0 1210. 0 0.0 0. 50 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

144 92 15 5220. 12. 12. 1. I 1 7 4 F 44. 156. 1.00 1600. 802 0.0 1299. 803 0.0 1500. 801 0.0 1500. 0 0.0 0.

146 93 810 10560. 14. 12. 6. I 1 7 4 F 30. 224. 1.00 1600. 0 0.0 1478. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

14S 94 814 10550. 15. 13. 6. I 1 7 4 F 36, 219. 1.00 1600. 0 0.0 1560. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

106 103 5 5083. 12. 12. 6. I 1 7 4 F 44. 163. 1.00 1(00. 806 0.0 1299. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

l C1 107 104 24 2112. 10. 11. 6. 1 1 7 4 F 36. 180. 1.00 1600. 0 0.0 1120. 23 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

8 103 105 21 5260. 12. 12. 5. I 1 7 4 F 32. 202. 1.00 1600. 0 0.0 1299. 29 0.0 0. 22 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

0% 109 106 807 20064. 10. 10. 2. I 1 7 4 F 40. 136. 1.00 1360. 0 0.0 1120. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 J. 0 0.0 0.

110 107 28 3432. 10. 10. 1. I 1 7 4 F 40. 171. 1.00 1600. 808 0.0 1120. 809 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

111 108 30 10550. 12. 11. 6. 1 2 7 4 F 36. 183. 1.00 1600. 0 0.0 1299. 31 0.0 0. 29 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

112 109 108 9504. 10. 11. 6. I 1 7 4 F 44. 147. 0.50 1600. 30 0.0 1120. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

113 110 13:00. 11. 11. 2. 1 1 7 4 F 44. 141. 0.50 1552. 111 0.0 1210. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

114 110 111 6954. 11. 11. 5. I 1 7 4 F 44.145.1.00 1600.112 0.0 1210. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 C. 0 0.0 0.

115 111 112 8976. 11. 11. 6. 1 1 7 4 F 44. 147. 1.00 1600. 42 0.0 1210. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

116 112 62 4224. 11. 10. 4. I 1 7 4 F 24, 232. 1.00 1392. 63 0.0 1210. 0 0.0 0, 54 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

117 113 62 16896. 12. 12. 6. I 1 7 4 F 36. 199. 1.00 1600. 54 0.0 1299. 63 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

118 114 113 3960. 12. 12. 3. 1 1 7 4 F 36. 194. 0.50 1600, 62 0.0 1299. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

119 115 1300. 12. 12. 6. I 1 7 4 F 32. 224. 0.50 1600. 19 0.0 1299. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

120 115 114 1320. 12. 12. 6. I 1 7 4 F 32. 224. 0.50 1600. 113 0.0 1099. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

121 19 4277. 12. 10. 6. 1 1 7 4 F 32. 178. 0.50 14 4. 105 0.0 1299. 0 0.0 0. 18 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

122 116 16 10550. 12. 12. 4. I 1 7 4 F 24. 293. 1.00 1600. 13 0.0 1299. 0 0.0 0. 69 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

123 117 16 3696. 11. 11. 6. I 2 7 4 F 24. 269. 1.00 1600. 69 0.0 1210. 13 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

124 118 14 2640. 12. 10. 6. I 1 7 4 F 36. 199. 1.00 1600. 92 0.0 1299. 0 0.0 0. 121 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

425 1:0 804 5 00. 9. 11. 6. I 1 7 4 F 36. 180. 1.00 1600. 0 0.0 1030. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

125 121 e6 5 00. 9. 9. 6. I 1 7 4 F 36. 137. 1.00 1230. 0 0.0 1030, 825 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

127 122 56 1320. 10. 10. 6. I 1 4 3 F 16, 356. 0.50 1404. 0 0.0 800. 0 0.0 0. 57 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

128 53 1320. 11. 11. 6. I 1 4 3 F 16, 380. 0.50 1520. 52 0.0 895. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

109 104 44 7920. 10. 10. 6. I 1 7 4 F 40. 179. 1.00 1600. 47 0.0 1120. 0 0.0 0, 125 0.0 0. 0 0.0 C.

133 125 815 2640. 10. 10. 6. I 1 7 4 F 40. 142. 1.00 14 4. 0 0.0 1120. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

131 129 57 20592. 12. 12. 6. I 1 7 4 F 24. 299. 1.00 1600. 818 0.0 1299. 819 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.

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ANNEX A EVACUATION FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS FOR 7- SCHOOL DISTRICTS AND NURSING HOMES

WITHIN THE BYRON STATION EPZ-

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COMMONWEALTH EDISON COMPANY JUNE 1984

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L AllNEX A A.1 INTRODUCTION I These additional analyses reflect and are a result of emergency planning efforts which occurred subsequent to the issuance of the December 1982 Evacuation Time Estimates Study for the Byron !!uclear Generating Station. This annex presents an updated analysis of the feasibility and associated time estimates for evacuating appropriate selected special facilites within the Byron Station Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ).

It is important to note that this study presents representative time frames for a range of seasonal, diurnal, and weather conditions for the evacuation of various areas around the Byron Station once a decision has been made to evacuate; while the Byron Volume of IPRA is the detailed emergency operations plan for the Byron Station EPZ.

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A-1

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A.2

SUMMARY

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-These special : facility evacuation feasibility analyses are based upon

. the facility-specific Standard Operating Procedures . developed in conjunction with and in support of the Illinois Plan for Radiological Accidents (IPRA), Byron Volume VI. The applicable special facility

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population and associated vehicle demand data were incorporated in the NETVAC2 evacuation simulations for the full EPZ scenario for winter.

Using individual facility-specific mobilization times and the results of the NETVAC2 simulations, evacuation times for the selected special facilities were calculated.

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A3 SCOPE 1

The special facilites in the Byron Station EPZ for which a detailed evacuation feasibility analysis was considered were the three EPZ l nursing homes, the five EPZ school districts (including the Ogle County l

Educational Cooperative), the Ogle County Jail, the Oregon Bible College, and the Lorado Taft Field Campus of Northern Illinois University.

If the occupants of the Ogle County Jail (maximum occupancy of 50, average occupancy of 35) are evacuated, they would be transported in law enforcement vehicles brought into the area from outside of ogle County, under the specific instructions of the Ogle County Sheriff's Department as discussed in the Ogle County Sheltering Guide. The Sheriff will notify other Sheriff's Departments in the surrounding counties who will dispatch their own vehicles to the jail in Oregon. These vehicles will then transport the inmates to holding facilities in the surrounding counties. The Ogle County Sheriff estimates the evacuation of inmates could be completed in two hours or less, which is within the time estimates for evacuation of the general public.

I As of January 1984, the Oregon Bible College had an enrollment of 40 students and a staff of 15. Persons at the Oregon Bible College generally have direct access to transportation at the campus. This would allow the evacuation of the Oregon Bible College to be carried out in conjunction with and in the same time frame as the evacuation of the general population.

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The Lorado Taft- Field Campus of' Northern Illinois University has a highly variable student population which ranges from 20 to 150 students at, any given time over the' course of the year. In addition, the tr.tnrportation requirements of the student population are also highly va lable. Because of these considerations .and the fact. that any transportation assistance would likely be provided in the same ' manner and in the same. general time frame as assistance given to the school

districts .for which- detailed assessments were performed, such an

. assessment was not deemed necessary or useful for this facility.

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A.4 DEMOGRAPHIC, TRANSPORTATION AND MOBILIZATION DATA Each of the Byron Station EPZ special facilities analyzed in this Annex was contacted by State .of Illinois Emergency Services and Disaster 1' . Agency (ESDA) planning personnel in January 1984 to confirm their user populations, transportation needs and resources, and mobilization times prior to undertaking these evacuation feasibility analyses. Tables A-1, A-2, and A-3 present the facility-specific population and vehicle data gathered for each of the Byron EPZ five school districts and three nursing homes for various diurnal conditions. The five school districts

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have an identified total population of 4856 students, faculty and staff.

(For the purposes of this Annex, the population of the Ogle County

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Educational Cooperative was included in the analysis of the Oregon and Mt Morris School districts, as 82 and 67 respectively.) The three nursing homes presently have total populations (patients and staff) of 286 at night and 400 during the day. Tables A-2 and A-4 present the estimated transportation mobilization times and facility population mobilization times as well as total evacuation times for the special

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h facilities.

{ School district mobilization times varied greatly due primarily to the locations of school buses and drivers at the time of notification. As shown in Table A-2, the shorter mobilization times, 15 to 70 minutes,

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are generally due to school buses and . drivers being at or near the school districts. The longer mobilization times, 25 to 136 minutes, are generally due to the time required to bring additional school buses into the EPZ from the outlying school districts. The nursing homes' mobilization times are generally longer than the EPZ school district

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l mobilization- times because Lof the time needed to assemble the nursing

( home' staff and prepare the residents for travel, t

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.m (A.5;:SPECIALFACILITY.EVACUATIONTIMES The Itotal . estimated evacuation times for both the school districts and nursing homes are as shown in Tables A-2 and A-4. With the exception of s a -nighttime evacuation of Pine Crest Manor Nursing Home, the times are

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within'those estimated for the general population.

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-Two evacuation' times for the schoolfdistricts were calculated to reflect the mobilization. times of different transportation resource optior.s. In J

.the' -longest school district evacuation scenario, it was determined that 1

{1 - :the last school district would be evacuated under normal weather conditions in 159 minutes, that is, 32 minutes sooner than the general

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population. Under adverse weather conditions, the~ longest school district evacuation is expected to be completed in 163 minutes, that is, 162 minutes before the general population.

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For. the nursing homes, -it is estimated that the- longest daytime evacuation will'take 80 to 81 minutes, or 111:to 144 minutes less than h

the 'l general population under both normal. and adverse weather conditions

.i respectively. ~The nighttime nursing home evacuation time estimates are-

~.slightly -less than the general population normal and adverse weather

{.: ' evacuation times of 106 and 113 minutes with the exception'of Pine Crest Manor? Pine ~~' Crest . Manor..has nighttime evacuation times of 140-and 142 minutes,..or 34 and 29 minutes longer than the general population at night. : under both normal and adverse conditions respectively. It should

be noted that if the Pine Crest Hanor. staff has been mobilized, then the

. facility' can, be evacuated within the same time frame as the general

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. public.

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1 TABLE A 1-,

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i SYRON EPZ SCHOOLS' -

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. NumberNor Numbe r. . o f ' ..VSchoolL. , *

.~ District 1 7 TPopulation:-

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- -Faculty;and :- Schoo l < . : Population c 4

.. District Schools 7

.. School District Staff :. Students -

_ f12/831' , f12/831' '

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. Byron Community. ' Mary Morgan Elementary l '. ( -------- 417 ---- ----- ) ) 4171 .

Unit School Byron Middle School :(---.----232---------) .232.1 . . ,

4 District #226, -~ Byron.High School ~(--------400---------)' 74004 _

~1,0491 ,

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Lea f Ri ve r Communi ty -- . Lea r.. R ive r Commun i ty . 38 =- 384 - :. 422 l r '1422= < .. 1 Unit School ' ' '

e District #270 > >

. , , l Oregon Community Oregon Community High' L41: :402:

.443 s. ;

Unit School- Etnyre Middle ' School : 29 .380: 409 ,

District #220 .Jerrerson Elementary;. 31 445 -.. 1476-. . ..

.1,410'.

0gle County Educational -7 ' ;75 - 82 .- - '

Coopg Oregon ,High. Annex

Mt. Morris Community Mt. Morris Elementary . J30- 341- 371 Ur.i t School Mt. Morris ~ Junior High 15 ' 187 -: 202' >

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District #261 Mt. Morris Senior High 21 ~ 226 . ' '247 .

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'887-

.OgIe. County Educationa1 32 :35

. 67 > , .l Coop, Mt. ' Mo rris*

Meridian Community Highland Grade' School > at .

Unit School Early Childhood 23 349- ,.372-District #223 30 327. '357 Meridian'.

Stillman ValleyJunior High High .41- 467 508 1.237 Total :5,005l w

Included for the purposes of this analysis. /

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. TABLE.'A-2 BYRON EPZ SCHOOL DISTRICT EVACUATION TIMES.

- District Buses '

Mobiil'zation

- ' School District . Time for: Total .

Mobilization .

Population (12/83) :- racu l ty, Starr . No. of Buses- Number - . for .. Mobilization (Faculty, Sta rt - and Students . Requi red for - of-Buses Bus Drivers Time for Buses and Students) (minutest Evacuationf11 - Available (minutes)- (minutes)

School District Byron Community -1,049- -- 5 18 12 10 5 Unit School (3 during District #226 vacation months) 422 10 7 7 10 5 Lear River -

Community Unit

-School District

-#270 Oregon Community .1,410 10 24 11 30 5 Unit School District #220 Mt. Morris 820(3) 15- 14 8 15 15

-Community unit School. District

261

. Meridian Community 1,237 -- 15 21 18 60 10 Unit School-District #223 l

l NOTES:

(1) Assumed average bus capacity of 60.

(3) See note (3) on page 3 of 3.

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TABLE.A-2 (Cont)

Additional Buses No. " o f Option Mobilizatio7 Mobilization T rave l Total .-

Additional Location 1/' : Time for. Time for- Time' ? Mobilization.

Buses. Option . Bus Drivers , Buses to School .. Time School District Reaui red Location 2f21 fainutes) ( m inutes ) - fainutes) -fainutesl~

Byron Community 6 StiIiman VaIley.. _ ' 60 10~ 6 136 Unit School .Rochelle 60-90 . 5-10 ' 35-36 District #226 Leaf River 0 Forrestville .60 5 12 -

Communit9 Unit Mt. Morri s '15 -15 7 School District

270 Oregon Community 13 : Polo /Eswood .

60 -5 , 25 133 Unit School Rochelle/ Kings 60-90~ 5-10 30-33 District #220 _

Mt. Morri s 6 Le9f River -10 -5 7- 82.

Community Unit Polo -60 5 -

17 School District

261 (

Meridian Community 3 Kings 5 5 8 25.

Unit SchooI Eswood 5 -5 '15 District #223

.if 59E:

(2) Additional school district transportstion assistance is available as discussed in IPRA Vol. VI.

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TABLE A-2 (Cont)

T rave l T ime f rom Cene ra l Population Total EPZ iminutes) Total Evacuation Evacuation Times Notification Mobilization Winter Day Time (minutes) (minutes)

School District Time (minutes) Time (minutes) No rma l Adve rse No rma l Adve rse Normal Adverse Byron Community 15 15-136 8 12 38-159 42-163 191 225 Unit School District #226 Lear River 15 15 5 7 35 37 191 225 Community Unit i School District l

270 Oregon Community 15 35-133 9 13 59-157 63-161 191 225 Unit School District #220 Mt. Morris 15 30-82 5 6 50-102(3)(4)51-103(3)(4) 191 225 Community Unit School District

261 Meridian Community 15 70-25 8 12 93-48 97-52 191 225 Unit School District #223 NOTES:

(3) The 67 person population of the Ogle County Educational Coop. (OCEC) in Mt. Morris would prima rily use vehicles from KAL I Bus Lines in an evacuation instead of school district buses and therefore this population has not been included in the Mt. Morris School District population.

(4) These evacuation time frames are applicable to and representative of the evacuation time estimates for the Ogle County Educational Coop. (OCEC) in Mt. Morris. The OCEC evacuation time estimates (80 to 101 minutes) include a facility mobilization time or 45 to 60 minutes and a concurrent transportation mobilization time or 45 to 60 minutes. Thererore the OCEC evacuation time estimates are similar to the evacuation time estimates for the Mt. Morris School District.

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TABLE A-3 BYRON EPZ NURSING HOMES b

Total No.

of vehicles Required Number of Number of Total for Nursing Staff Residents Population Evacuation Home Day Night Day Night Day Night Day Night Pine 80 6 112 112 192 118 42 23 Crest Manor Nursing Home White 12 3 62 62 74 65 16 10 Pines Nursing Home Neighbors 35 4 99 99 134 103 34 18 Nursing Home i

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BYRON EPZ NURSING HOME-EVACUATION TIMES ,

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y; Facility 1 ,

Noti- ..

, ?f < fica- Mobili-- .-Total ,

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tion zation Mobili- .

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.-x Time Time ' zation T rave t Time from EPZ ~ Total Evacuation Time Total from ._{ minutes) Time Day Night Day . Night ~

Night- _(Minutes) (minutest' (minutes)

Populationf ESDA- Day Night. Day (minutes)

Ad- No r- Ad- - [J ~ ,

Nursing . pay Night (min- utes) (min-utes) (min-utes)(min-utest(utes)4 mi n mal (1/84)___ No r- Ad- No r- Nor. Ad-Home e yersg a

. mal _ verse mal verse mal _ verse -

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Pine .192 1118 15 60 120 75 135 5' 6 5 7 -80 81 140 142 _

Crest ,

Manor -

Nursing! #f f 4 Home < ,

White 74 65 15 45 75 60 90 -

13 9 13 69 73 103 Pines

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,-r f Nursing < /

HO** :

Neighbors 134' 103 45 80 60 ' 95 - 1 13 9 13 69 73 104 108 Nursing 15* y Home Total < .

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Gene ra l Popula t ion f - /g!

Evacuation Time f <

Nursing No r- Ad- Nor- Ad- / -

j Home mal verse mal verse ,

Pine 191 225 106 113 r Crest Manor 7

-Mursing Home White 191 225 106' 113 Pines Nursing Home Neighbors 191 225 106 113 Nursing Home Total

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