ML20009B101
| ML20009B101 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Vogtle  |
| Issue date: | 07/02/1981 |
| From: | Harold Denton Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation |
| To: | |
| Shared Package | |
| ML20009B098 | List: |
| References | |
| DD-81-12, NUDOCS 8107140785 | |
| Download: ML20009B101 (14) | |
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1 00 12 UNITED STATES OF AMERICA NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION 1
0FFICE OF NUCLEAR REACTOR REGULATION Harold R. Denton, Director In the Matter of
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Docket Nos. 50-424 50-425 GEORGIA POWER COMPANY (Alvin W. Vogtle Nuclear Plant, Units 1 & 2)
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(date)
DIRECTOR'S DtiCISION UNDER 10 C.F.R. 2.206 By letter dated September 25, 1980, to the Director of the Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation, Mr. Gary Flack, on behalf of Georgians Against Nuclear Energy (GANE), requested that the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) reconsider its decision to issue constructian permits to tne Georgia Power Company (GPC) for the construction of the two Vogtle nuclear facilities.
The basis for this request is an electricity demand forecast submitted by GPC to the Georgia Public Service Cocnission.
According to GANE, this forecast indicates that upon completion of the two Vogtle facilities,1# GPC will have excess reserve generating capacity ranging from 40 to 46% from 1988 to 1990.
GANE asserts that this information regarding excess capacity constitutes new infomation not previously considered by the NRC when issuing the construction permits for the two Vogtle facilities, and, as a result, GANE asks that the 1/
Vogtle Units 1 and 2 are currently scheduled to start commercial operation in 1985 and 1988 respectively.
..s 8107140785 810702 PDR ADOCK 05000424 O
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decision to issue the construction permits be reconsidered. 2/ GANE's letter is being treated as a petition for action pursuant to 10 C.F.R. 2.206 of the Commission's regulations.
I have reviewed the factors asserted by GANE as the basis for its request.
For the reasons set forth below, I have concluded that GANE's request to reconsider the issuance of the construction permits for the two Vogtle facilities should be denied.
I.
In initially considering whether construction permits should be issued to GPC for the two Vogtle facilities, the Atomic Safety and Licensing Board found that there was a need for the Vogtle units.
Georgia Power Company (Alvin W. Vogtle Nuclear Plant, Units 1-4), LBP-74-39, 7 AEC 895 (1974). In 2/
GANE has also asked that hearings be ins +1tuted to assess the need for power from the two Vogtle facilities and the need for a supplemental Environmental Impact Statement to account for the new information.
A hearing on DANE's request is, of course, not required by law.
- v. NRC, 591 F.2d 12,14 (7th Cir.1979).
The Commission is not required to institute proceedings to determine whether the facts underlying a 2.206 petitioner's claim have merit.
However, the Commission may
" properly undertake preliminary inquiries in order to determine whether the claim is substantial enough...to warrant full proceedings."
Porter County Chapter of the Izaak Walton Leaoue v. NRC, 606 F.2d 1363,1369 (0.C.
Cir.1979). On the basis of tnat inquiry, the Commission "has substantial disci etion to decline to initiate proceedings..."
Id.
Because the NRC Staff believes that the information provided by GAME would not require the reopening of the record to reconsider the decisions to issue cons-truction permits to the two Vogtle facilities, the Staff does not believe that the consideration of a supplemental Environmental Impact Statement j
in the absence of any major federal action nor the institution of hearings to consider the need for power would serve any useful purpose in this instance.
2 its Supplemental Initial Decision, the. Board found that the environmental determinations mc 4 in its 1974 decision were still valid. LSP-77-2, 5 NRC 261 (1977). The Atomic Safety and Licensing Appeal Boara affinned the Licensing Board's decisions in these matters.
ALAB-375, 5 NRC 423 (1977).
Since that time, GANE has attempted on three prior occasions to reopen the idministrative record compiled in the above-described proceedings. E Each of these attempts has sought to reopen the record based, at least in part, on purported changes to the need for power to be produced by the two facilities.
On each of these three previous occasions, the NRC Staff reviewed the purported changes in the need for power from the two facilities and concluded that the changes were not so significant so as to require a reconsideration of the decision to issue the construction pemits for the two facilities.
The September 25, 1980 petition represents the fourth attempt by GANE to reopen the record on the issuance of the Vogtle construction permits.
The Staff has again analyzed GANE's request.
II.
A.
Need for Power Before taking major federal action that significantly affects the environment, the Commission is required to weigh the benefits of the proposed y
Georgia Power Comoany ( Alvin W. Vogtle Nuclear Plant, Units 1 and 2),
00-79-4, 9 NRC 582 (1979); Georoia Power Company, (Alvin W. Vogtle Nuclear Plant, Unit Mos. I and 2), 00-73-18, 10 NRC 617 (1979);
Georgia Power Comoany, ( Alvin W. Vogtle Nuclear Plant, Units 1 and 2),
00-80-13,11 NRC 503 (1980).
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. action against *he environmental costs associated with taking that action.
In the context of issuing construction permits for nuclear power facilities, the benefit of the proposed action is the need for power to be produced by the facility..In a decision in the Seabrook case, Public Service Co. of New Hampshire (Seabrook L.ation, Units 1 & 2), ALAB-422, 6 NRC 33, 90 (July 26, 1977), the Atomic Safety and Licensing Appeal Board explained:
"Need for power" is a shorthand expression for the " benefit" side of the cost-benefit balance which NEPA mandates for a proceeding considering the licensing of a nuclear power plant A nuclear plant's principal " benefit" is of course the electric power it generates.
Hence, absent some "need for power," justification for building a facility is problematical.
Duke Power Co. (Catawba Nuclear Station, Units 1 and 2), ALAB-355, 4 NRC 397, 405 (October 29,1976) (footnote omitted).
Not only must the Commission determine that a need for the generating capacity of the plant exists, but it must also determine that the need for the plant coincides reasonably with the operational date of the plant.
See Georgia Power Comoany ( Alvin W. Vogtle Nuclear Plant, Units 1 and 2),
00-80-13.11 NRC 503, 505 (1980).
In considering whether a particular applicant demonstrates that the power the facility will produce is in fact needed, the Commission may look at forecasts for the demand for electricity by consumers within the facility's service rea.
See, e.g. Kansas Gas and Electric Comoany (Wolf Creek Generating i
Station, Unit No.1), ALAB-462, 7 NRC 320, 327 (1978).
In addition, the power produced by a facility may be needed as a substitute for the power currently produced by the burning of short-supply fossil fuels. Jd.; see also Niacara Mohawk Power Corcoration (Nine Mile Point Nuclear Power Station, Unit 2),
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- ALAB-264,1 NRC 347, ~ 353 (1975); New England Coalition on Nuclear Pollution v.
United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission, 582 F.2d 87, 97-98 (1st Cir.1978).
Also, the power produced by the facility may be needed to meet the reserve margin requirements of oower pools in which the facility is a participant.
Dairyland Power Cooperative (La Crosse Boiling Water Reactor), LBP-80-2, 11 NRC 44, 78 (1980).
Finally, in determining whether the power from a particular facility is needed, the Commission may consider the applicant's ability to sell power outside its immediate service area to meet the demand for power in other areas. O y
While this matter has not been addressed in any decision to date, there would appear to be nothing in the Commission's regulations or decisional authority or in NEPA itself that would prevent the Commission from considering the need for power outside a particular facility's service area.
Indeed, the Commission has recognized this position in its alternative siting cases.
The Commission, in order to minimize environmental effects, can reject the proposed siting of a particular facility on grounds that an "obviously superior" site exists elsewhere.
Public Service Company of New Hampshire (Seabrook Station, Units 1 & 2), CL1-77-8, 5 NRC 503, 526 (1977). Moreover, nothing prevents the Atomic Safety and Licensing Board from considering, if it so chooses, alternative sites well outside the facility's immediate service area.
Id. at 539-540.
In Seabrook, the Commission remanded the case to the Atomic Safety and Licensing Board and gave the Board the discretion to detennine whether sites in southern New England should ba considered as alternatives to the proposed New Hampshire site. H.
On remand, though the Board rejected these sites on the ground that the Seabrook site was a superior one, the Board did in fact consider these other sites which were located throughout Connecticut, Massachusetts, Vermont, and Rhode Island.
Public Service Comoany of New Hamoshire (Seabrook Station, Units 1 & 2), LBP-77-43, 6 NRC 134, 137-139 (1977). The Seabrook case thus il'ustrates (Cont'd)
W. The Commission has recognized, however, that uncertainty is inherent in any prediction of the need for the electricity to be generated by a nuclear plant.
"[E]very prediction has an associated uncertainty and...long range forecasts of this type are especially uncertain in that they are affected by trends in usage, increasing rates, demo-graphic changes, industrial growth or decline, the general state of the economy, etc.
These factors exist even beyond the uncertainty that inheres in demand forecasts:
assumptions on continued use from historical data, range of years considered, the area considered, extrapolations from usage in residential, commercial, and industrial sectors, etc."
Carolina Power &
Light Co. -(She ron Harris Nuclear Power Plant, Units 1 - 4),
CLI-79-5, h NL 609, 610 (1979).
As the Atomic Safety and Licensing Appeal Board has stated, "[g]iven the legal responsibility imposed upon a public utility to provide at all 4_/
Continued -
the fact that at least some of the benefits of a particular facility need not be located in the same service area where the risks of the facility are located.
In providing for the possibility of siting a facility outside the service area where the bulk of the facility's power will be consumed, the Commission has a fortiori recognized that the benefits arising from a particular nuclear facility (i.e., the power it produces) can flow to a service area cutside the immediate geographic location of the facility where the risks of the facility are located. Certainly, then, the required NEPA justification for a particular facility may be demonstrated not only by the need for power within the facility's immediate service area, but also by the need for power which the facility can satisfy by selling electricity to other areas where the power is also needed, even though such areas are outside the facility's normal service area.
This is consistent with Staff practice of analyzing need for power at the construction permit stage by calculating an applicant's capacity for producing electricity af ter accounting for any firm commitments the applicant has to sell power, including any plans to sell power outside the facility's normal service area.
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' times adequate, reliable service - and the severe consequences which may attend upon a failure to discharge that responsibility - the most that can be required is that the forecast be a reasonable one in the light of what is ascertainable at the time made." Kansas Gas & Electric Co. (Wolf Creek Generating Station, Unit No.1), ALAB-462, 7 NRC 320, 328 (1978) (citations omitted).
The Atomic Safety and Licensing Board considered the need for power issue during the course of the construction permit proceedings for the two Vogtle facilities.
It concluded that in fact there was a need for the power to be produced by the Vogtle facilities. Georgia Power Comoany ( Alvin W. Vogtle Nuclear Plant, Units 1-4), LBP-74-39, 7 AEC 895 (1974), LBP-77-2, 5 NRC 261 (1977); affirmed, ALAB-375, 5 NRC 423 (1977). GANE now seeks to reopen those proceedings and have this detemination regarding the need for power for Vogtle Units 1 and 2 reconsidered.
In order to decide whether GANE's request should be granted, an analysis of the Commissio1's standards for reopening a record is necessary.
B.
Reocening an Administrative Recoro GANE's request to reopen the record is based on recent forecasts for demand for electricity submitted by GPC to the Georgia Public Service Commission. GANE alleges that these forecasts indicate greater excess capacity in the years after the Vogtle facilities are scheduled to become operational thar m originally anticipated in the initial construction permit proceed,,i.
As such, GANE contends that the forecasts constitute significant new infomation that requires the reopening of the construction permit proceedings.
G O
l The Supreme Court has long demonstrated a predisposition against reopening an administrative record.
It has stated:
One of the grounds of resistance to administrative process has been the claims of private litigants to be entitled to re-hearings to bring the record up to date and meanwhile to stall the enforcement of the administrative order.
Administrative consideration of evidence - particularly where the evidence is taken by an examiner, his report submitted to the parties, and a hearing held on their exceptions to it - always creates a gap between the time the record is closed and the time the administra-tive decision is promulgated.
This is especially true if the issues are difficult, the evidence intricate, and the considera-tion of the case deliberate and careful.
If upon the coming down of the order litigants might demand rehearings as a matter of law because some new circumstance has arisen, some new trend has been observed, or some new fact discovered, there would be little hope that the administrative process could ever be consummated in an order that would not be subject to reopening.
ICC v. Jersey City, 322 U.S. 503, 514 (1944). This passage has most recently been cited with approval by the Supreme Court in Vermont lankee Nuclear Power Corocration v. NRDC, 435 U.S. 519, 554 (1978).
These under-lying principles have been applied in decisions of this ageccy. The Appeal Board has stated:
After a decision has been rendered, a dissatisfied litigant who seeks to persuade us - or any tribunal for that matter - to reopen a record and reconsider "because some new circumstance has arisen, some new trend has been observed or some new fact discovered,"
has a difficult burden to bear.
Duke Power Comoany (Catawba Nuclear Station, Units 1 & 2), ALAB-359, 4 NRC 619, 620 (1976). Indeed, the Appeal Board, in denying a motion to reopen an administrative record on the issue of need for power, has noted that "[1]itigation has to end sometime".
Cleveland Electric Illuminatino
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t Company (Perry Nuclear Power Plant, Units 1 & 2), ALAB-442, 6 NRC 741, 750 (1977).
As was noted in a previous decision on a request by GANE for action
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under 10 C.F.R. 2.206, 'NEPA does not require that decisions based on environmental impact statements be reconsidered whenever information developed subsequent to the action becomes available." Georgia Power Company (Alvin W. Vogtle Nuclear Plant, Units 1 and 2), DD ~/9-4, 9 NRC 582, 584 (1979).
Rather, "it is unnecessary for an agency to reopen the NEPA record unless the new information would clearly mandate a change in result."
Id.- at 584-85, see also Greene County Planning Board v. FPC, 559 F.2d 1227 (2nd Cir.1976), cert, denied, 434 U.S.1086 (1978).
This standard applies not only in the appeal of a licensing decision, but also in requests for action under 10 C.F.R 2.206.
Georgia Power Company ( Alvin W. Vogtle Nuclear Plant, Units 1 and 2), 00-79-4, 9 NRC 582, 585-86 (1979).
f.oreover, the Commission has emphasized that the procedure afforded by 10 C.F.R. 2.206 should not be used as a vehicle for reconsideration of issues previously decided in Commission proceedings.
Consolidated Edison Company of New York (Indian Point, Unit Nos.1, 2, 3), CLI-75-8, 2 NRC 173, 176(1975); see also Northern Indiana Public Service Comoany, (Bailly Generating Station, Nuclear 1), CLI-78-7, 7 NRC 429, 434 (1978).
Specifically in the context of reopening the record to reconsider the need for power' issue, the Commission has stated:
The general rule applicable to cases involving differences or changes in dec.and forecasts was stated in Niagara.ohawk Power Corporatian (Nine Mile Point Nuclear Station, Unit 2),
3
- s. ALAB-264, 1 NRC 347, 352-69 (1975).
In that case the Appeal Board found the question was "not whether Niagara Mohawk will need additional generating capacity but when."
Id. at 357.
The intervenors in that case urged that the power would not be needed until 1981, the applicant urged 1979 as the date.
The Board responded (Id. at 365):
[W]e do not consider the difference in predicted year of need - 1979 vs.1981 - a statistically meaningful _ distinction.
If there was one thing agreed upon in the proceeding below, it is that inherent in any forecast of future electric power demands is a substantial margin of uncertainty.
As with most methods of predicting the future, load forecasting involves at least as much art as sci e.nce. The margin of error implicit in such pre-dictions is at least of sufficient magnitude to encompass the two year difference between the applicant's and the intervenors' forecasts.
This rule has been consistently followed.
Carolina Power and Light Comoany (Shearon Harris Nuclear Power Plant, Units 1, 2, 3, and 4), CLI-79-5, 9 NRC 607, 609 (1979) (citations omitted).
Thus, given the margin of uncertainty inherent in any demand forecast, changes in a demand forecast are not likely to " clearly mandate a change in result" in the initial construction permit proceedings, and therefore are not likely to compel tne reopening of those proceedings.
III.
The information submitted by GANE and by Georgia Power Company N 5/
In order to more fully evaluate GANE s request, the Staff asked Georgia Power Company to submit answers to a number of questions propounded by the Staff that were relevant to the need for power issue.
A copy of these questions and the answers submitted by Georgia Power Company are contained in Appendix A.
m does not indicate that there is no longer any need for the power to be producea by the Vogtle facilities.
The information does indicate, however, that demand' fc electricity within GPC's immediate service area will not grow as rapidly as was originally anticipated in the initial construction permit proceedings for the Vogtle facilities.
Nevertheless, there is no dispute over the fact that demand for power in GPC's service area is indeed arowing and will continue to do so in the forseeable future.
In addition, as indicated in Section II of this decision, need for power is not simply equivalent to demand for power within a service area. U;ing power as a subst1tute for short supply fossil fuels or as a means for an applicant to meet its power pool obligations also serve as adequate bases to demonstrate a need for the power to be produced by a particular facility.
In addition, an applicant may show that the power a facility produces is needed by demonstrating an ability to sell excess capacity it may have to areas where power is also in demand, even though such areas are outside the applicant's immediate service area.
As mor. fully explained in the attached Appendix B, GPC is able to demonstrate a need for power from the Vogtle facilities. Demand for electricity within GPC's service area is increasing. Also, the power produced by the two' Vogtle facilities will be used in part as a substitute for power currently produced by coal units owned by GPC.
In addition, GPC is a member of a pool of utilities (the Southern Company) in which power obligations are shared.
Finally, GPC has received from other I
utilities several letters of intent to buy power from GPC if in fact GPC
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- has excess capacity when the Vogtle units become operational. N pon U
analyzing these various factors, the Staff has determined that the power produced by Vogtle Unit 1 will be needed by 1988 and that of Vogtle Unit 2 by 1990.
Vogtle Units 1 and 2 are currently scheduled to become operational in 1985 and 1988 respectively. The latest demand forecasts would indicate a delay in the need for power from the two facilities of three years and two years respectively. Given the uncertainty inherent in forecasting need for power, I conclude that this delay is wienin the ambit of the " margin of arror implicit in such predicitions".
Carolina Power and Licht Co. (Shearon Harris Nuclear Power Plant, Units 1 - 4), CLI-79-5, 9 NRC 609, 610, (1979).
In addition, construction of both Vogtle facilities has begun and much of the environmental costs associated with the construction of these two facilities has already occurred. E Therefore, I cannot conclude that there would clearly be a change in result in the original construction permit proceeding and the NEPA balance struck there. As a result, GANE's request 6f While power initially may be sold outside the GPC service area, over the life of the Vogtle facilities most of the power produced by the two facilities is intended to be used to meet the demand for electricity within the GPC service area.
It is anticipated that ;ome of the power sold by GDC outside its service area will be used by the other utilities as a substitute for power currently produced by their fossil-fuel facilities. The utilities to which sales are planned are, like GPC, all members of the Southeastern Electric Reliability Council, y
Indeed, GPC estimates that as of November,1980, it has expended 820 million dolllars -for the two Vogtle facilities.
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to reopen the construction pemit proceedings for the Vogtle facilities isdenied.82 For the above reasons, GANE's request to reopen the construction pemit.
proceedings for the two Vogtle facilities to reconsider whether there is a need for the power produced by these facilities is denied.
A copy of this decision will be placed in the Commission's Public Document Room at 1717 H Street, N.W., Washington, D. C. 20555, and the local public document room for the Alvin W. Vogtle Nuclear Plant, Unit Nos. I and 2, located at Burke County Library, 4th Street, Waynesboro, Georgia.
A copy of this decision will also be filed wnn the Secretary of the Commission for its review in acccrdance with 10 C.F.R. 2.206(c) of the Commission's regulations.
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The judgment of local regulatory bodies charged with the duty of insuring that the utilities within their jurisdiction fulfill their legal obligations to treet customer demnds is relevant to NRC's deter-mination on need for power.
Vermont Yankee Nuclear Power Coro, v. NROC, 435 US 519, 550 (1978); Rochester Gas & Electric Coro. (5terling Pcwer Project Nuclear Unit No.1), ALAS-502, 8 MC 383, 383 (1978).
It is noteworthy that the Georgia Public Service Commission has not made any decision that would indicate that there is no longer a need for the power to be produced by the Vogtle facilities.
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. As provided in 10 C.F.R. 2.206(c) of the Commission's regulations, this
' decision will constitute the final action of the Commission 20 days after the date of issuance, unless the Commission on its own motion institutes the
-m review of this decision within that time.
J/
A Ha'rold R. Denton, Director Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation Dated at Bethesea, Maryland this.. '.
day of
, 1981.
Attachment:
Appendix A Appendix B 9
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, %, '.. '. *. f Docket Nos.50-42t and 50-425 DEC 191980 Mr. W. E. Ehrensperger Senior Vice President
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Power Supply Georgia Power Company P. O. Box 4545 Atlanta, Georgia 30302
Dear Mr. Ehrensperger:
SUBJECT:
REQUEST FOR INFORMATION TO ASSESS THE NEED FOR POWER FROM V0GTLE NUCLEAR POWER PLANT, UNITS 1 AND 2 By a petition dhted September 25, 1980, Mr. Gary Flack, on behalf of Georgians Against Nuclear Energy (GANE), requested that a proceeding be instituted to assess the need for power from the Vogtle Nuclear Power Plant, Units 1 and 2, and to assess the need for a supplemental Environmental Impact Statement in light of new forecasts for electricity demand submitted by Georgia Power Company to the Georgia Public Service Commission. The NRC issued a notice on October 21, 1980, stating that the above petition is being treated as a request for action under 10 CFR 2.206 of the Commission's regulations, and accordingly, action will be taken on the petition within a reasonable time.
Enclosed is a request for information which the NRC requires in order to complete its evaluation of the merits of the above petition. Therefore, pursuant to 10 CFR 50.54(f) of the Commissions regulat: 1ns, please submit under oath or affirmation the information requested or eference earlier submittals, updating the latter where necessary, to provide a full, adequate and current response for our review.
Your response to the enclosed request for information should be submitted within four (4) weeks. Should you have questions concerning this request, please contact us.
Sincerely, bw Robert L. Tedesco Assistant Director for Licensing Division of Licensing
Enclosure:
Request for Additional Information cc w/ enclosure:
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P. O. Box 4545 Atlanta, Geergia 30302 Mr. Ruble A. Thomas
-Vice President Southern Services, Inc.
P. O. Box 2625 Birmingham, Alabama 35202 Mr. J. A. Baily Project Licensing Manager Southern Company Services, Inc.
P. O. Box 2625 Binningham, Alabama 35202 George F. Trowbridge, Esq.
Shaw, Pittman, Potts and Trowbridge 1800 M Street, N. W.
Washington, D. C.
20036 Mr. Gary Flack, Esq.
1515 Healey Building 57 Forsyth Street, N. W.
Atlanta, Georgia 30303 l
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REGUEST FOR IliFORluT;G; V0GTLE NUCLEAR POWER PL/..:T. U!!!TS T 10 OOCKET.'!05:
50-424.a'!D 50-425 1.
Provide the following information for tne Vogtle station:
ine scheduled on-line commercial operating dates for each Vogtle a-unit and your expectations for meeting these cates, b-The latest official capital cost estimate for the plant Ine total expenditures to date, broken down into the classifications c-(1) construction expenses at the site; (2) purchases of plant or:
ccmponents and equipment; (3) engineering, licensing, and regulatory expenses; and (4) all other expenses.
Indicate those elements of the total cost to date that would not be recovered if construction of the Vogtle facility is halted.
3 d-Estimates of the fuel, and operation and maintenance costs for the first year of operation of each unit, expressed in 1980 and current (as of ist year of operation) dollars. Indicate all underlying assumptions.
2.
For the year 1980 to date, show by fuel type (i.e., coal, oil, gas, nuclear, hydro,etc.)
the Mwh's of electrical energy generated by each fuel to meet 4
Georgia territorial energy requirements.
3.
Provide Georgia territorial system's peak load demand and energy sales for the years 1973 through 1980. For 1980, provide the actual energy sales plus the projected sales for the remainder of the year.
4.
Provide the latest official projections relevant to the Georgia territorial system of:
(a) annual peak demand; (b) energy sales; (c) capacity at time of system peak; (d) firm and non-finn sales and purchases; and (e) the resulting system reserve margin for the years 1981 until five years af ter the last Vogtle unit is scheduled to come on-line.
In responding, indicate the annual adjustments to the system peak demand and capacity due to scheduled outside purchases and sales.
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w Indicate !!! planned capacity changes on the Georgia territorial system, 5.
including enanges in ratings, retireraants, and ad 1ttens fr:m 1930 tc five years aiLee Liie l&st ','cgtle unit is due on-line. For all units scheduled to be added, indicate tne status of cun neuction along the following cr siminar lines;
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The early planning stage at which the site and energy source has not a-yet oeen icentified.
b-The plant site is known and engineering design for the plant has begun bot ;.:, :;nstruction has started.
(Provide an estimate of tne dollar scent for each plant in this. category).
The plant is c crently under construction.
Indicate the percentage c.
completion of the plant and provide an estimate of the dollars spent for eacn piant in this category.
6.
Provide an estimate of the current and projected reserve margin requirements needed to maintain minimum system reliability, including the basis for your estimates.
7.
If the need for the Vogtle plant in the time frame proposed is based upon factors other than reliability (e.g., a need for baseload :apacity, fuel substitution, fuel diversity, economic considerations, etc.),
please provide a discussion as to how such factors provide a basis for this need.
8.
List and discuss the status of all efforts to purchase or sell electrical power between the Georgia Power Company and other electrical generating utilities. Describe the contracts in effect and under negotiation, f
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3: /<e' S.-::'y January 22, 1961 Mr. Robert L. Tedesco Assistant Director for Licensing Division of Licensing United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washington, DC 20555 RE:
Request for Information to Assess the Need for Power from Vogtle Nuclear Power Plant.
Units 1 and 2.
Dear Mr. Tedesco,
I am enclosing on behalf of Georgia Power Company a verified response to the Request for Information transmitted with your letter to me dated December 19, 1980.
Please contact me should you have any questions concerning this response.
Sincerely,
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/. /.c(. acuay.s<a,c <-t W. E. Ehrensperger;.
cc w/enclosurea L. T. Gucwa R.
A. Thomas J. A.
Baily G. F. Trowbridge G.
R. Flack e3:: _-
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VERIFICATION W. E. Ehrensperger, first be'ing duly sworn, deposes and says:
that he is senior vice president of Georgia Power Company; that he has read the feregoing document and is familiar with the contents thereof; that he is authorized to file such document on behalf of Georgia Power Company; and that the statements of fact contained therein are true and correct to the best of his knowledge, information and belief.
<f G/
.fd N. /,2A.4* sfbS4 fCv W. E.EHRENSPERGERf Sworn to and subscribed before me this :'.:" day of
, 1981.
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NOTARY PU3LIC:
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A.
Schedule on-line commercial operating dates for each Vogtle unit:
Unic No. 1:
May 1, 1985 Unic No. 2:
Nov. 1, 1987 Expectations for meeting these dates:
Certain phases of construction activities are up to eight
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months behind schedule.
It is our present intention to make up this deficit so that it will have no effect on expected dates for commercial operation.
3.
Latest official capital cost esti= ate fer the plant:
S 2,741,000,000 (exclusive of AFUDC)
$ 3,644,000,000 (including AFUDC as though GPC owned 100%
of Plant Vogtle)
C-.
Total expenditures to date (through Nov., 1980).
Construction expenses at the site (Note 1)...
S 286 million Permanent plant equipment
$ 266 million Engineering................................. S 202 million Other (Note 2)
S 66 million TOTAL....................................... S 820 millfon Note 1:
Includes contract labor, field non-manual, bulk
=aterials, distributable field costs, supply and erection subcontracts.
Note 2:
Primarily AFUDC attributable to GPC's 50.7% owner-ship interests.
This amount does not include any amounts attributable to the 49.3% of Plant Vogtle owned by Oglethorpe Power Corporation, Municipal Electric Authority of Georgia, or the City of Dalton, Georgia.
Elements of total cost to date that would not be recovered if construction were halted:
We have not performed a detailed study of this question.
We assume that a portion of the cost of some plant ecuip-ment, certain bulk materials not yet incorporated in the plant, and certain temporary facilities could be recovered via resale.
Such recoveries would have to be off-set wit'i cancellation charges not included above.
4 7
1.D ESTIMATES OF FUEL, OPERATION, & MAINTENANCE COSTS FOR PLANT V0GTLE UNITS 1 & 2 OPERATION MID M INTENMICE FUEL COST VARIABLE FINED UNIT cat s/nm Ks s/nm Ks s /ro*/YE AR p'S Vogtle 1 4701.2 (1985 Dollars) 13.02 61,210 2.41 11,330 25.32 19,412 (1980 Present Worth) 7.64 35,935 1.41 6,652 14.86 11,396 ~
Vogtle 2 7051.8 (1988 Dollars) 15.49 109,200 3.10 21,861 32.8G 37,720 (1980 Present Worth) 6.60 46,573 1.32 9,324 13.99 16,087 1)
Coc:mercial Operation of Vogtle 1 is 5/85, therefore the figures shown represent 8 :onths of operation in 1985.
(approx. 70". capacity faccer) 2)
Commercial Operation of Vogtle 2 is 11/87, therefore the figures shown represent 12 conths of operation in 1988. (approx. 70 capac:.cy factor) 3)
All present worth calculations are done using an 11.24% rate.
4)
Esti=ates shown are the result of dispatch =odelling using generation expansion plan 80P1, which is based on the Georgia Power Company Rad Forecast'of August, 1980.
5)
Esti=ates of operation and Maintenance expenses escalate at approxi=ately 9 per year, ce= pound.
Esti=ates of Fuel. Cost vary in an irregular fashion, therefore an escalation rate is not readily applicable.
K WDC/cs 1/13/81
f 2.
As o f 11 8 0, estimates of the generation by fuel type from Georgia Power Company generating resources to meet Georgia territorial energy requirements are as follows:
!!ydro 2iOl9,746 MWII Gas 85,188 MWH Coal 3 8,4 5 8,2 61 MWil Oil 11,415 MWil Nuclear d,085,016 MWH These numbers are approximate because Georgia Power Company's share of transactions through the Southern Company Pool are not identified by fuel type.
e
-x-
Integrated Territorial Territorial 3.
Year Posk Ilour Sales MW MWH 1973 8,212 38,414,546 1974 8,745 38,605,396 1975 8,795 39,176,805 1976 9,150 41,823,696 1977 9,631 45,124,879 1978 10,113 47,038,554 1979 10,213 47,322,809 1980 11,154 49,895,060 Note:
All numbers are actual
-.o 4.
In response to Question 4, attached please find:
1.
annual peak demand and energy sales for the Georgia territory for the years 1981-1995.
2.
Georgia Power Company Territorial System Expansion Plans for
_ he years 1981-1993, including capacity at the time of the tsystem peak, unit power and non-firm sales, and system reserve margins.
3.
Supplemental data for the Georgia territorial system showing the con-system reserve margins under these contingencies-tingencyforecastofterritorialpeakdemandpref,.aredby Data Resources, Inc.,; the proposed sale of 16.5 of Plant Vogtle to non-territorial entities; and the elimination of oil-fired generation from territorial capacity.
4.
Southern Electric System Expansion Plan for the years 1981-1993.
5.
Supplemental data for the Southern Electric System showing system reserve margins under three contingencies:
the con-tingency forecast of Southern Electric System peak demand prepared by Data Resources, Inc.; the proposed sale of 16.57.
of Plant Vogtle to non-territorial entities; and the elimina-tion of oil-fired generation from Southern Electric System capacity.
6.
Projections of Georgia Power Company's share of coal-fired unit power sales and non-firm power sales for the years 1981-1993.
(
r 4-A & B GEORGIA POWER COMPANY 1980 SUDGET FORECAST OF GEORGIA TERRITORIAL INTEGRATED HOUR PEAK DEMAND
~
AND
~
TOTAL TERRITORIAL REQUIRE'I.TS PEAR DEMAND TERRITORIAL REQUIPJOIENTS YEAR
!W MWH 1981 10238 49,490,137 1982 10470 51,117,558 1983 10942 53,278,446 1984 11421 55,648,722 1985 11898 57,668,451 1986 12294 59,713,928 1987 12698 61,656,940 1988 13117 63,734,953 1989 13591 65,915,216 1990 14113 68,157,388 1991 14665 70,437,986 1992 15242 72,798,931 1993 15856 75,215,924 1994 16502 77,690,508 1995 17136 80,252,339
I
- 4. c and e JAtitfARY 13,1901 CEOltCI A POtitit COttPAt1Y REPORT 130. 1 Territorial P^GC 1
SYSTI'It EXPAt3Slott Pt.AN PLAtl 00PI-WITil SALES 1901 - 1993 t4ET
---t RESEttVES---
Uf4IT DATL ADJUST.
SYSTEH F58 LOAD HW RESERVE
% RESERVE IF tion FInit SAI,E CAPACITY CAPACITY PROJECTED ADDED TO LOAD It31TI AL CEtitttATInti 12/31/00 14390.7 TOTAL.
0/31/01 14390.7 10247.0 4151.7 40.52 36.72 SCllERER 1 000 FC ( 0.4% CPC) 2/02 000.0 000.0 SEPT. IlYDRO ADJtfST 10 TIT 6/02
-41.4
-41.4 SEPI. PREI'EREt3CE ADJUSTHEtIT 6/ 0 2..
41.4 41.4 TOTAL 0/31/02 15206.7 10479.0 4727.7 45.12 39.92 Ut!!T POWER SAI,ES TOTAI,450 MW 0/03
-450.0
-450.0 TOTAL 0/31/03 14756.7 10951.0 3005.7 34.75
- 29.77 ATKIllSOtl 1 It ETI ttE 1/04
-54.5
-54.5 SCIIERER 2 000 FC ( 0.4% GPC) 2/04 000.0 000.0 TVA IIITEftCilAtlCE ADJUSTHENT 6/04
-54.0
-54.0 UNIT POWER SAI.ES TOTAI. 473 HW 0/04
-23.0
-23.0 TOTAL 0/31/04 15433.2 11430.0 4003.2 35.Q2 30.26 11US50L1. DAH SEPA IIYDRO 12/04 150.0 150.0 VOCTI.E I 1150 !!UCI, EAR 5/05 1150.0 1150.0 talT POWER sal,ES TOTAT. 500 MW 0/05
-27.0
-27.0 16706.2 11907.0 4799.2 40.31 35.73
- TOTAt, 0/31/05 CASTON A RETIttE (50%)
1/06
-7.9
-7.9 OARTI ETTS FERRY IIYDite ADDITION 1/06 100.0 100.0 UtlIT POWER SALES TOTAt. 507 HW 0/06
-7.0
-7.0 Torat.
0/31/06 16791.3 12303.0 4400.3 36.40 32.05 O
e
I JANUARY 13,1981 CEORGIA POWER COMPANY REPORT 180. 1 PACE 2
SYSTIM EXPAtISIOl3 PLAN Pt.AN 00PI-WITil SAI.ES 1901 - 1993 NET
---t RESERVES---
Ut!!T DATE ADJUST.
SYSTEM HW LOAD MW RESERVE t RESERVE 1F HOtt FIRH SALE CAPACITY CAPACITY PROJECTED ADDED TO LOAD TOTAL.
9/31/n6 16791.3 12303.0 44n9.3 36.48 32.05 1
'f M IGilT I RETIRE 1/n7
-41.7
-41.7
- e.,.1: ISO:4 2 RETIRE 1/07
-61.5
-61.5 RUSSl;l,t DAtt S1;PA P/S 1/n7 150.0 150.0 ScutRER 3 non rc (75.0t cPc) 2/07 n00.0 606.0 ROCKY HoullTA t ti 1-3 PUtlP STOR 4/07 675.0 675.0 u:::T power SALES total 1015 nu n/n7
-50neo
-50n.0
- TOTAI, 0/31/n7 17611.1 12707.0 4904.1 30.59 Jn.59 WUGECAR2 1150 II/n7 1150.0 1150.0 Alt EWR ICllT 2 RETIRE 1/nB
-43.0
-43.0 unit roaEn SAi,ts TOTAi,1154 MW o/no
-139.0
-139.0 TOTAL D/31/On In579.1 13126.0 5453.1 41.54 41.54 AR :uRiGnT 3L 4 RETIRE 1/09
-Un.e
-nn.e n t TCllEt,l. IL2 RETIRE 1/n9
-39.7
-39.7 GOAT ROCK llYDRO ADDITION 1/09 67.0 67.0 scliERER 4 non rc (75.03 cPc) 2/n9 00n.0 606.0 ustT rcuER SATES ToTat. 1376 Hw n/n9
-222.0
-222.0 TOTAL n/31/09 10901.6 13600.0 5301.6 3n.98 30.99 ARKURICllT SAL 5n RETIRE 1/90
-26.1
-26.1 DIIT POWl;R SALES TOTAI,1372 HW 8/90 4.0 4.0 TOTAt.
n/31/90 Inn 19.5 14122.0 4757.5 33.69 33.69 ATKl tlSOtl S AL 5il RCTIRE 1/91
-62.6
-62.6 AT K I t3SOtt 3L4 RETIRE 1/91
-130.4
-130.4 Un!T POUI:n SAI.CS TOTAI,1347 MW 0/91 25.0 25.0 TUTAL 0/31/91 18711.5 14674.0 4037.5 27.51 27.51
- icoonOcci 3AL3n McTrRE 1/92
-62.6
-62.6 n:TenEr,L 4A-4c nETtRE 1/92
-94.0
-94.0 nour.n 6A RET RE 1/92
-31.3
-31.3 un:T power SAi,CS TOTA. 1329 MW n/92 1Q.0 In.0
- ToTAi, n/31/92 In541.6 15251.0 3290.6 21.5n
?!.5n w
-m
i i
J ANtf ARY 13,1961 GEORGIA POWER COMPAt3Y RI: PORT No. a RAGE 3
SYSTI.M EXPAt4SION Pl.Aff Pt.AN 00PI-WITil CAI.ES 1901 - 1993 tlET
---t RI:S E RVI:S---
Uti1T DATE ADJUST.
SYSTLit itW I.OAD NW RESERVE
% RESERVE IP NOt3 FIlut sal,C CAPACIFY CAPACITY PROJECTED ADDED TO IDAD TOTA 1, 8/31/92 1054I.6 15251.0 3290.6 21.59 21.58
' hat!US 3A-3C ItETIRE 1/93
-124.9
-124.9
.STOrt 18.2 RETIItE (50%)
1/93
-257.0
-257.0 PuttPED STORAGE IIYDRO 450 MW 2/93 450.0 450.0 (fHIT POWEft sat,LS TOTA 1,O HW R/93 1329.0 1329.0 TOTA 1, 9/31/93 19937.0 15n65.0 4072.8 25.67 25.67 NOTE: Tile HW t.OAD PROJECTIONS FOR YEARS 1981-1993 IIAVE DEEN ADJUSTED BY 9 P1W TO ACCOUNT FOR Tile SEPA PREFERENCE CUSTOMER DEI,IVERY TO CRISP COUNTY WillCil WAS NOT INCI.UDED IN Tile GEORGI A POWER COMPA13Y PEAK DEttAND FORECAST OF AUGUST, 1900.
N 1
m e
.. c) cnd.(o)'
(
4.
(
' Supplemental Data Georgia Power Company Territorial System Expansion Plan Reserve Contincencies Col. 1*
Col.
2**
Col.
3***
% Reserves
% Reserves
% Res e rves 1981 39.10 40.52 27.51 1982 40.50 45.12 32.40 1983 30.79 34.75 22.58 1984 32.66 35.02 23.84 1985 37.47 38.71 29.57 1986 31.03 34.94 26.16 1987 30.20 37.10 29.09 1988 31.23 38.65 32.34 1989 28.35 36.19 30.10 1990 22.89 31.~ 00 25.32 1991 17.15 24.93 20.77 1992 13.15 19.08 16.32 1993 19.11 23.28 21.41
- Georgia Power Company, through Southern Company Services, develops a contingency forecast of territorial peak demand.
Data Resources, Inc. is utilized to develop this forecast.
Column 1 provides the reserves that are determined by using this forecast.
These numbers do not include the non-firm power sales as added load.
- Georgia Power Company currently plans to sell 16.5% ownership in each of ' the Vogtle units to non-territorial entities.
Using Georgia Power Company's primary ferecast of territorial peak demand and with 16.5% of the capacity of each Vogtle unit excluded as a territorial resource, the territorial reserves are as indicated in Column 2.
These numbers do not include the non-firm power sales as added load.
As a corporate objective the Company is attempting to utilize these resources at an absolute minimum.
Column 3 provides the reserve numbers utili:ing the Company's primary forecast of territorial peak demand, with oil-fired capacity excluded from reserves, assuming the additional 16.5". sale of each of the Vogtle units-does not materialire.
These numbers do not include the non-firn power sales as load.
NOTE:
The reserve amounts shown above are not cumulative; i.e.,
no column reflects the impact on reserves should more than one contingency occur.
For example, the reserves shown in Col. 2 would be lower if they were instead based on the contingency forecast used to develop the reserves shown in Col. 1.
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(c) and - (o)l t
' Supplemental Data The Southern Electric System Expansion Plan Reserve Contincencies Col.
1*
Col.
2**
Col.
3***
% - Rese rves
% Reserves
% Reserves 1981 43.17 41.43 30.73 1982 41.38 41.48 31.09 1983 33.70 33.30 2.'. 31 1984 33.01 31.56 22.18 1985 34.98 35.01 26.96 1986 30.00 30.60 23.13 1987 26.96 29.56 22.70 1988 25.57 28.53 22.88 1989 26.65 30.05 24.58 1990 20.92 24.84 20.06 1991 18.19 22.19 18.39 1992 14.46 17.25 14.55 1993 20.93 22.50 20.32
- The Southern System, through Southern Company Services, develops a contingency forecast of system peak demand.
Data Resources, Inc.
is utilized to develop this forecast.
Column 1 provides the reserves that are determined by using this forecast.
These numbers do not include the non-firm power sales as added load.
- Georgia Power Company currently plans to sell 16.5% ownership in each of the Vogtle units to non-Georgia territorial entities.
Using the-System's primary forecast of system peak demand and with 16.5% of the capacity of each Vogtle unit excluded as a System's resource, the System reserves are as indicated in Column 2.
These nummers do not include the non-firm power sales as added load.
l
- The Southe rn Sys tem had, at the end of 1980, 2,095 MW's of oil fired genera tion.
As an objective the System is attempting to utilize these resources at an absolute minimum.
Column 3 provides the reserve numbers utilizing the System'; primary forecast of System peak demand, with oil-fired capacity excluded from eserves, assuming the addi-tional 16.5% sale of each of the Vogtle units does not materiali:e.
These numbers do not include the non-firm power sales as load.
NOTE: The reserve amounts shown above are not cumulative, i. e., no column reflects the i= pact on reserves should more than one contingency occur.
For example, the reserves shown in Col.
2 would be lower if they were instead based on the contin-gency forecast used to develop the reserves chown in Col. 1.
- 4. d s
GEORGIA POWER C0!TANY PROJECTION OF FIRM AND NON-FIRM OF7 SYSTEM SALES UNIT POWER NON-FIRM SALES-COAL POWER SALES YEAR MM MW 1981 390 1982 546 1983 450 546 1984 473 546 1985 500 546 1986 507 546 1987 1015 1988 1154 1989 1376 1990 1372 1991 1347 1992 1329 1993 NOF_S :
The Uni: Power Sales shown are not finalized.
However, these figures represent Georgia Power C:=pany's portion of the pro-posed sale.
Letters of inten: verifying these figures have been received, and Georgia Power is opti=istic that negotiations can be finali-ad within 90 days.
Mditional preliminary dis-cussions are currently underway with other utilities which would result in these sales increasing.
The Nonfir: Power Sales shown are 52 percent (Georgia Power Cc=pany's load ratio) of the Southern Sys:e= sale.
These figures include 208 20,' (Georgia Power's share of 40019) for which only letters of in:en: are now available.
Geor;ia Power is optimistic that nego:ia: ions f or the additional sale can be finalized within 90 days.
Due to their nature, Nonfir: ?ower Sales do not impact any reserve calculations.
l 5.
Status of Scheduled Generating Unit Additions to the Georgin Territorini System CPC Ownership only Actuni Expenditures Thru 11-30 80 -- KS Unit -- GPC Ownership Type Status Code
% Completion Direct Plus AFUDC Scherer 1 -- 8.4%
Coni C
82.9 86,693*
Scherer 2 -- 8.4%
Coal C
32.7 13,332*
Scherer 3 -- 100.0%
Con 1 C
1.4 8,051*
- Scherer 4 -- 100.0%
Coni C
0.6 3,465*
Vogtle 1 -- 50.7%
Nucient C
32.5 367,624 Vogtle 2 --.50.7%
Nuclear C
13 3 75,265 Russell Dam SEPA Ilydro B
Bartletta Ferry 5 & 6 -- 100.0%
liydro C
1.7 868 Rocky (fountain 1-3 -- 100.0%
llyd ro C
5.6 23,884 Gont Rock 7 & 8 -- 100.0%
llydro C
0.05 16 1993 Pumped Storage -- 100.0%
llydro A
- Includes CPC ownership of 23.5% of the Scherer Common Facilities nssociated with each respective unit.
(1)
I Completion bnned on the ratio of expenditures-to-date to total estimated cost, both on a 100%
CPC basis.
(2)
Status Codes are as follows:
A -- Enrly Planning Stage at which the site and energy source has not yet been identified.
H -- The Plant site in known and engineering design for the plant has begun but no construction has started.
C -- The Plant is currently under construction.
\\
)
1-12-81 i,
l
6.
Our current planning objective is to maintain a minimum reserve level for the territory served by Georgia Power Company of 20%-
25%'for reliability purposes.
This planning objective is subject to periodic review in light of changes in, among other things, proj ected load growth, economic and financial conditions,
system operations, and governmental requirements.
The concept of minimum system reliability is itself fluid, depending in part on the' cost of attaining a specified level of reliability and the customers' willingness to pay for such level of reli-ability.
The purpose of maintaining a minimum level of reserves is to protect against unscheduled outages of generating units and to provide a margin for contingencies in future load growth.
The forced outage of only one large unit on the Georgia Power system at the time of the system peak demand would reduce available reserves by approximately six to eight percentage points.
Georgia Power will have as many as 14 such units on its system during the time period under study.
The need to make allowances for contingencies in future load growth is especially important in view of the lead time required to construct new generating units and the relationship between Georgia Power's forecast of future load growth and the proj ected race of economic growth in the State of Georgia.
For example, if the projected rate of load growth is one percentage point too low, the error in the projected load would reduce a planned reserve margin of 25% to less than 18% in only five years.
e
i The adequacy of a minimum reserve level, for reliability purposes, of 20% to 257. is predicated on a number of assumptions.
First, it assumes that Georgia Power will not perform scheduled maintenance on generating units during the peak su=mer months.
Thus far Georgia Power has not had to schedule planned mainte-nance for that period, but may have to do so at some point
~~
during the 1980s as the number of units on the system increases, or if load,during the heating season increases as a result of fuel switching by customers.
In either case, year-round mainte-nance would result in some capacity being unavailable to reserve the system during the su=mer peak period.
Second, Georgia Power's forecasts of future peak demands assume that the weather at the time of the peak will be normal; i.e.,
that it will be typical of temperatures during previous years' peak demands.
This assumption is signifi ant because Georgia Pcver has a large, weather-sensitive air conditioning load during the su=mer.
For example, during the unusually warm su=mer of 1980 the maximum peak demand on the Georgia Power territorial system was 11,154 MW, which exceeds the proj ected peak demand for 1981 by over 900 MW.
Third, the adequacy of a 207.-25%
level of reserves assumes that the availability of generating units will equal or exceed the industry average.
Unit avail-ability could be adversely affected by changes in regulatory requirements applicable to coal and nuclear power plants, pre-mature failure of congenents, and other instances of force majeure.
Reserves on the Georgia Power system are currently higher-than the minimum reserve level of 20%-25%.
This situation has resulted from the reduced locd growth experienced between 1974 and 1979 (3.15% per year compared to 8.9% for the previous 5 years).
The current level of reserves provides an additional
~
margin of safety in the event of the occurrence of contingencies
~~
described in the preceding paragraph.
In addition, the current level of reserves has resulted in minimal use of oil-fired generation to serve the Georgia territory (as of December 31, 1980, 1,333 MW of Georgia Power's reserves were oil-fired).
We believe that the long-term reliability of the Georgia Power system is enhanced to the extent the system is not vulnerable to interruptions in the supply of oil.
.l i
7.
Continuation of Georgia Power Company's current construction program-is desirable for reasons of reliability, economics, and national energy policy.
As mentioned previously, maintaining reserves-above the minimum level required for minimum sjstem reliability provides a margin of safety for such contingencies as abnormal weather conditions.
In addition, c.e Company is
~
P able to minimize the use of oil-fired capacity to serve load.
~~
Finally, in the event Georgia Power has underestimated the long-term rate of growth in demand (see, eg., the results of the contingency forecast of territorial peak demand submitted in
~ connection with Question 4.e.),
the system will more easily be able to accomodate the additional load.
It is. axiomatic that to delay the completion of units under construction increases the cost 'of such units due to additional AFUDC accruals and the impact of inflation on con-struction costs.
Rather that delaying the completion of these units, Georgia Power has instead elected to build the units on
~
the current schedule and, to the extent the capacity is not i= mediately required by its territorial customers, sell unit power from the higher-cost coal-fired units at Plant Scherer to other utilities to displace oil-fired generation on those utili-tie's systems (see response to Question 8 for details of those transactions).
In this way Georgia Power's territorial customers will receive the benefit of current construction costs without having to pay the carrying costs of the units involved until such units are required to serve his requirements.
The unit power sales benefit'the purchasing utilities by per=itting them to displace oil-fired generation with coal-fired generation.
1 8.
Georgia Power Company, along with the other operating affiliates of the Southern Company, have entered into non-firm long term capacity sales agreements as follows:
Name Amount Maturity Florida Power & Light 100 MW 12-31-86 Florida Power Corporation 200 MW 12-31-86 Jacksonville Electric Authority 100 MW 9-15-85 Savannah 100 MW E-31-82 Mississippi Power & Light 200 MW 12-31-86 The operating af filiate companies are also currently negotiating the following,non-firm long term capacity sales :
Name Amount Maturity Florida Power & Light 200 MN 12-31-86 Jacksonville Electric Authority 200 MW 12-31-86 Tallahassee 50 MW 12-31-86 The Company believes these contracts will be executed within the next 90 days.
The Company has also offered non-firm long term capacity to Florida Power Corporation, South Carolina Electric & Gas, and Mid-South Utilities.
GPC's load ratio share of all these sales is approximately 52%.
The outcome of these offers cannot be determined at this time.
The Company, as one of the operating affiliates of the Southern Company, is currently negotiating firm unit power sales agree-ments with Florida Power & Light and Jacksonville Electric Authority as follows:
Approximate Year FP&L JEA GPC Amount 1983 350 300 450 1984 350 300 473 1985 350 300 500 1986 350 300 507 1987 650 700 1,015 1988 1,000 700 1,154 1989 1,000 700 1,376 1990
.. _.1,.0 0 0. _ _ _ _ _,.
700
',372.
1991 1,000 700 1,347 1992 1,000 700 1,329 l
The Company is optimistic that these agreements will be executed within the next 90 days.
The Company has also offered firm unit power to Florida Pcwer Corporation, South Carolina Electric & Gas, Mid-South Utilities, Savannah Electric Pcwer Company, the City of Orlando, and Seminole Electric.
The outcome of the offers cannot be deter-mined at this time.
c
\\
8.
(Cont'd.)
The principal objective of all these sales efforts is to main-tain the current construction schedule and therefore to avoid the' cost of delaying units where contracts with co-owners allow delay, to recover the full cost of all units committed to firm power obligations, and to structure maturities to ensure a reliable system-and lowest economic cost to its territorial customers.
The obvious national benefit of these sales is the tremen-dous amount of oil displaced on the system of the purenasers.
GPC estimates that the 1700 MW's of unit power to be sold to
~~
peninsula Florida will displace more than 157 million barrels of oil over the life of the Agreement.
GPC estimates that the Southern System will have the capability to make additional sales of firm, non-firm and economy capacity and energy to inter-connected utility systems which could displace, at a minimum, an additional 50 million barrels of oil between 1983 and 1992.
4
e APPENDIX 8 RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT Table 1 presents GPC's latest official forecast for Georgia Territorial Peak Demand, System Capacity at time of peak demand (with no adjustments for planned unit power sales), and the resulting Summer Reserve Margins for the years 1985 thru 1993. Capacity and reserves are shown without the proposed Vogtle units on-line. As GPC has identified a reserve margin of 20 to 25% as necessary to maintain minimum system reliability, an absolute need for the Vogtle units would not arise until 1992 and 1993.
There are several factors that would alter the reliability assessment depicted in Table 1.
First, the reliability assessment is a function of the peak demand being forecasted for the system. This particular item consistently looms among the most controversial of the items considered and is subject to a great deal of uncertainty. Table 1 incorporates GPC's official forecast for the Georgia Territorial load.
It is based on an econometric model developed by GPC with input from the University of Georgia.
The model projects growth between 1981 and 1990 at an average annual rate of about 3.6% per year.
GPC also has available to it a second forecast.
These projections are based on an econometric
-model developed by Data Resources Incorporated. DRI's forecast is its best estimate of growth on the Georgia Territorial system but since DRI's projections are higher, they are used as a contingency forecast by GPC.
The DRI mode" results in an average annual rate of growth between 1981 and 1990 of about 4.5% per year. The Staff also has available to it an econometric forecasting i
)
. i matel which it typically uses as an independent check on the reasonableness of the applicant's f; recast. The model, funded by the NRC, and developed by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), projects growth, between 1980 and 1990 in Georgia electrical energy demand, at an average annual rate of about 4.6%
per year. Given that the 1980 actual Georgia territorial peak load already exceeds GPC's official forecast for the 1983 summer peak, and that both the ORNL and DRI models suggest growth will exceed the GPC official projections, the Staff believes'it is reasonable to consider, for expansion planning purposes, a hiaher rate of growth in peak demand than currently employed by GPC. The Staff reconmends that the DRI forecast, which is slightly lower than the ORNL results, bt used in this assessment.
Second, GPC does plan to sell significant portions of its Scherer coal units to entities outside of Georgia and if these plans are successful, the Georgia territorial capacity and reserve margins will be lower.
Thus, power produced by the Vogule units will serve as a substitute for power currently produced by the coal units.
For reasons discussed below (see section on Outside Sales) the Staff siews these sales is a positive action on GPC's part and finds that an adjustment to the. reliability assessment is in order. The adjustment only reflects GPC's share of the proposed unit power sales for which letters of intent have alraady been received.
Third, although previous Staff reliability assessments were limited solely to conditions for the state of Georgia, the Staff believes that a perspective from the Southern Company System is more meaningful. GPC functions as an integrated compnnent of the Southern Company and, for example, all capacity
- (.
- expansion and long range planning is performed within the context of the Southern Company's needs and objectives.
Furthermore, the generating resources of all the affiliated companies (GPC, Gulf Power, Alabama Power, and Mississippi Power) are treated as a common pool from which units are called into service based on a central economic dispatch logic. Thus, in key operating and planning roles the relevant entity is the Southern Company.
Fourth, non-firm power sales, for which letters of intent have already been received, as well as a 16.5% share of the Vogtle plant, are being planned.
These sales will not impact the reliability assessment presented above because with the exception of the sale of Vogtle capacity these sales are interruptible and GPC is not committed to provide the capacity if reliability circumstances on the GPC system so dictate. The 16.5% sale of Voatie would effectisely lower reserves to the Georgia Territorial system but since Table 1 depicts capacity and reserves without'Vogtle, the sale would not be reflected in these values. These proposed sales are nevertheless an effective means of lowering any excess capacity that might become available to the GPC system.
GPC is also currently discussing the sale of additional power on both a firm and interruptible basis.
These potential sales are in a much earlier stage of negotiation such that the outcome of those offers cannot be determined at this time.
To the extent that additional firm unit power sales Secome final, 1
- the reliability picture depicted in Table I would be lowered.
And to the extent additional interruptible sales are consumnated, the effective " excess" capacity available to the Georgia Territorial system will be reduced.
However, since all of these proposed sales are so tentative at this time, no adjustment in the reliability assessment is recommended.
a
-4 T4bles 2 and 3 present reliability assessments for the Georgia Territorial load and Southern Company, respectively.
In both cases, the peak load
- forecasts are those developed by DRI, and the system capacity estimates are adjusted downward to reflect planned unit power sales for which letters of intent have been provided. Assuming a 20*. reserve margin is necessary to
~
maintain minimun reliability, both tables show a need for Vogtle Unit 1 and
- Vogtle Unit 2 by the summer of 1988 and summer of 1990, respectively.
e i
~
a
- 5-s 9
Table 1 GEORGIA TERRITORIAL PEAK DEMAND, CAfABTLIT AND RESULTING RESERVE MARGINS 1985 - 1993 Summer Summer Peak Load System 1
Reserves Reserves Year Demand Capacity (MWe)
(MWe)
(MWe)
(%)
1985 11907 16056.
4149 34.8 1986 12303 16148 3845 31.3 1987 12707 17476 4769 37.5' 1988 13126 17433 4307
- 32. 8 1989 13600 17978 4378 32.2 1990 14122 17952 3830 27.1 1991 14674 17759 3085 21.0 1992 15251 17571 2320 15.2' 1993 15865 17638 1773 -
11.2 2No deduction made for planned unit power sales.
Also, Vogtle units 1 and 2, currently schedule to be added in 1985 and 1988 are not included.
Table 2 GEORGIA TERRITORIAL RELIA 81LITY ASSESSMENT ADJUSTED FOR DRI PEAK LOAD FORECAST AND GPCS SHARE OF PLANNED UNIT POWER SALES Summer Peak Summer System Year Lead Demand Capacityi Reserve Reserve (MJe)
(MWe)
(MWe)
(%1 i985 12153 15556 34 03 28.0 1986 12815 15641 2826 22.1 1987 13526 16574 3048 22.5 1988 14158 16449 2291 16.2 1989 14727 16845 2118 14.4 1990 15363 16822 1459 9.5 1991 15972 16650 678 4.2 1992 16387 16476 89 0.5 1993 16739 17638 899 5.4 ivc;tle Units 1 and 2, currently scheduled to be added in 1985 and 19S8 are not
' included.
~
Table 3
. SOUTHERN COMPANY'S RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT ADJUSTED FOR ORI PEAK LOAD FORECAST AND SOUTHERN COMPANY'S SHAKE OF UNIT POWER SALES Summer Peak Summer System 1
Reserve Reserve Year Load Demand Capacity (MWe)
(MWe)
(MWe)
(%)
1985 22700 29490 6790 29.9 1986 23592 29519 5927 25.1 1987 24738 30407 5669 22.9 1988 25533 30012 4479 17.5 1989 26422 31464 5042 19.1
-1990 27489 31240 3751 13.6 1991 28488 31670 3182 11.2 1992 29141 31355 2214 7.6 1993 29758 33686 3928 13.2 IVogtle Units 1 and 2, currently schedul ed to be added in 1985 and 1988 are not included t
.s s-t
. OUTSIDE SALES The addition of the Vogtle units under the current schedule may result in excess capacity on the GPC and Southern Company systems.
In recognition of this, GPC and the Southern Company have explored the prospects of selling capacity _ to neighboring systems.
Two types of capacity sales are being negotiated:
Unit Power Sales - These are defined as the sale of portions of specifically identified capacity for a specified period of time.
In this regard, GPC has offered portions of its Scherer Coal units to Florida Power and Light, and the Jacksonville Electric Authori ty.
These sales have a high probability of being realized as letters of intent have been received by GPC. Additional unit power sales have been offered to Florida Power Corporation, South Carolina Electric and Gas, Mid South Utilities, Savannah Electric Power Authority, the City of Orlando, and Seminole Electric.
The outcome of these offers cannot be determined at this time. Further-more, GPC is also discussing with Florida Power Corporation and Jacksonville Electric Authority the sale of 15.5%
ownership in each of the Vogtle units.
Interruptible Power Sales - These are defined as the sale of undesignated capacity for a specified period of time which is recallable by the seller at any time.
Typically, the purchaser will have continuous use of this capacity but cannot be guaranteed of this.
These sales are currently estimated by GPC at 390MW in 1981 and
~
~i s-t-
l 546MW for the period 1982 thru 1986. Only 208MW are currently under letters of intent. GPC is optimistic that negotiatiens can be completed on the remaining of fers.
The proposed sales are to Florida Power and Light, Florida Power Corporaticn, Jacksonville Electric Authority, Savannah, Mississippi Power and Light, and Tallahassee. Additional interruptible sales have been offered to Florida Power Corporation, South Carolina Electric and Gas, and Mid South Utilities, but the outcome of these offers cannot be determined at this time.
If all of the proposed sales currently under letters of intent are realized, GPC will have displaced a level of capacity essentially equivalent to Vogtle Unit 1 in each of the years 1985 through 1992, which essentially corresponds to the period when possible excess capacity is anticipated. And, if further negotiations are successful, including the proposed 16.5% sale of Vogtle, outside sales of capacity could completely nullify the capacity of both Vogtle Units in the 1985-92 timef rane.
These sales are potentially beneficial in a number of ways.
First, the carrying charges on the capacity that is sold will be borne predominantly by the purchasing utility (100% on unit power sales and about 75% on interruptible sales). Thus, the sales offer an effective means of continuing with the Vogtle plant as scheduled but relieving the GPC ratepayer of the burden of paying for much of the excess capacity expected on their system.
Second, the utilities involved in purchasing the power are heavily dependent on oil generated electricity and it is anticipated that these purchases will permit the phasing out of oil on these neighboring systems.
' Third, the neighboring systems will incur lower costs than if they had to depend on their own oil generated capacity.