ML19345C199
| ML19345C199 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Beaver Valley |
| Issue date: | 06/30/1980 |
| From: | Cosby J, Day R, Sheppard W WILBUR SMITH ASSOCIATES |
| To: | |
| References | |
| NUDOCS 8012040118 | |
| Download: ML19345C199 (56) | |
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i VOLUME Ill AN N JE 3 E N.J.E N T ASS ESSMENT 0;
EVACUATION TMES FOR B ;E A V.E l V A L l_ ;E Y
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C _.EA R 30WE 9 3LANT Prepared for FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY
' I7AC7I2G0MATION D
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l 9hYdat 9'mi/A and ducciates JUNE,1980 801204 C \\
i ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The independent. assessment of the evacuation times contained in this report was performed under the technical directicn of John C. Cosby.
Mr. William V. Sheppard, Vice President, was the Principal-in-Charge of the Project.
"'he principal contributors to the individual volumes of the report were:
Volume I
- Program Recort
- John C. Cosby Volume II
- Bailly
- James R. Sancroft volume III ' - Beaver valley
- Richard A.
Day Volume IV
- Enrico Fermi
- Elbert L. Waters Volume V
- Lime rick
- George S. Coulter, Jr.
Volure VI
- Maine Yankee
- Robe rt P. Jurasin Volume VII
- Midistd
- James R. Sancrof t and Elbert L. Waters Volume VIII - Millstone
- Frank LaMagna I
volume IX
- Shoreham
- E. Dean Browner Volume X
- Three Mile Island - Welbourne E.
Thompson All reports were revised and edited by John C. Cosby and H. Dean' B rowner.
All of the above personnel are permanent employees of Wilbur Smith and Associates.
TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE INTRODUC"'*CN 1
Evacuation Time Assessment Versus Evacuation Plan 2
General Assumptions 3
Description of the Site 6
Emergency Planning Area 7
General Regional Characteristics 8
Support Organization 11 Previous Smergency Planning Efforts AREA CHARACTERISTICS 13 Topography 13 Meteorology 14 Demography 15 CONCEPT OF EVACUATION 23 Notification of Evacuation 23 Public Response Time 24 Evacuation Network 26 Special Traf fic Control Strategies 37 Special Transportation Prchlems 37 Sector Evacuation 41
"/ACCATION TI}2 ASSESSMENT 42 Nor=al Weekday 42 Nightrime 45 Adverse Weather 45 Summertime 46
l LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS FOLLOWS FIGURE PAGE NO.
6 1
Study Site Location 22 2
Special Problem Areas, Upper Right Quadrant 22 3
Special Problem Areas, Lcwer Right Quadrant 22 4
Special Problem Areas, Lower Left Quadrant 22 S.
Special Problem Areas, Upper Left Quadrant 26 6
Evacuation Network, Upper Right Quadrant 7
Evacuation Network, Lower Right Quadrant 26 8
Evacuation Network, Lcwer Left Quadrant 26 9
Evacuation Network, Upper Left Quadrant 26 1
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f LIST OF TABULATIONS TABLE PAGE NO.
16 1
Population By Zone 20 2
Schec1 Enrollment 22 3
Hospital Pcpulation 28 4
Netwcrk Description 5
Evacuation Route Link Ncde Cescription 33 6
Vehicles en Each Link 38 7
Evacuation Times by Centroid 43 1
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INTRODUC* ION An independent assessment of evacuation times around nine nuclear power plant sites was made for the Federal Erergency Management Agency. The results of this three-=cnth study are con-tained in ten volumes, as follcws:
Volume I
- Program Report - Evacuation Time Assessment of Nine Nuclear Pcwer Plant Erargency Planning Zenes (EP Z 's)
Volume II
- Bailly Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Assessment Volume III
- Beaver Valley Nuclear Pcwer Plant Evacuation Tire Assessrent Vclure IV
- Enrico Fermi Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Assessment Volume V
- Limerick' Nuclear Pcwer Plant Evacuation Tire Assessment Maine Yankee Nuclear Pcwer Plant Evacuation volure VI Tire Assessment Volume VII
- Midland Nuclear Pcwer Plant Evacuation Time Assessment Volume VIII - Millstone Nuclear Pcwer Plant Evacuation Time Assessment Volume IX
- Shoreham Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Assessment Three Mile Island Nuclear Pcwer Plant Volume X Evacuation Time Assessment In addition, an Executive Summary is also available.
This volume contains the evacuation times assessment for the Beaver Valley Nuclear Pcwer Plant.
The evaluation of fcur
t scenarios and the discussion of evacuatiot af special problem areas are included.
The scenarios evaluated are those expected i
when evacuation takes place at night - (the optimum time from the standpoint of evacuation time), during a normal workday, during bad weather (the worst case condition), and, whe re applicable,
the evacustion with summertime resident and transient pcpula-4 tion.
Evacuation Time Assessment Versus Evacuation Plan Th6 assessment employs available demographic data and trans-portation facility information to predict the public response time to an evacuation warning on the assumption that such a warn-ing is =ade within 15 =inutes of an on-site nuclear incident warranting such emergency action.
The assessment must provide for estimates of public response time to these warnings, assembly of family and other groups, preparation for departure, travel time on the network including consideration of capacity limitations on the network possibly forming queues which add to delays, and clearance of the 10-mile radius arcund the site.
It must consider the evacuation of special problem areas and groups.
These would include schools, nurseries, nursing and retirement homes, hospitals, penal f acilities,- beaches and recreational areas, and other activities which may provide periodic or seasonal concentrations of people.
Population groups without access to their own transportation or unable to provide the special transportation facilities required for evacuation must be included in the evacuation time assessment.
Evacuation time assessment methodology combines selected techniques of traffic management and planning, land use planning and operational analysis.
Because some conditions prevailing during an evacuation are not well documented, modifications to,
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scme established principles may be required to meet evacuation requirements.
Assumptions may be required in lieu of well formu-lated relationships because of the highly specialized problems being addressed.
These assumptions must be founded on best pro-fessional judgement and/or extrapolation from existing knowledge.
The assumptions must be specifically identified.
The bases upon which the assumptions are founded should be appropriately dis-cussed.
Evacuation time assessments contain basic methodology co= mon to evacuation plan development.,However, the assessment is not an evacuation plan.
The major distinction between the assessment and a plan is the extant to which the elements nc..e been coordi-nated with all perticipant agencies and jurisdictions.
For example, the assessment may assume that a specific traffic management element is established to optimize traffic operations at a specific location along an evacuation network.
The feasi-bility of such an element in the assessment would be based upon established technical principles.
However, tae element would not be coordinated with specific law enforcement agencies to establish what agency would exercise the element control and management nor identify the type and number of pnrsonnel to be required.
The study tire allotted makes such cocrdination im-possible.
The assessrent must identify what is required for the evacuation time to be realized, and assume that such an element would be implemented.
General Assumptions In the assessment of evacuation times, certain general assumptions were mandatory.
More impo nant of these are summa-rized as follows:
1.
Emergency evacuation of the general public from the EP:
will be perfonned largely from the home by the family as a united -
1 III I
This assumption is prefaced by the following quote:
group.
.... people will not evacuate an a. e r., regardless of the danger, if their family group is separated, unless they know that members of their ' f amily are safe, accounted for, and that arrangements have been made for them to evacuate."
It. was felt that-this psychol w al pressure is so prevalent and streng.that the above assump: ion appears to be justified.
In addition, to assure that segments of the family are safe and accounted for would have 1
required the establishment of shelter locations and the develop-ment of a shelter support plan.
In view of the next assumption and due to the short time period of the study, this was not done.
2.
Public use of shelters in previous mass evacuation exper-ience related to natural disasters appears to be a very small percentage of total evacuees.
Examples cited 15 literature include:(2)
"In a California flood, only 9,260 out of 50,000 persons evacuated registered in the 38 Red Cress' shelters; during Hurricane Carla, 75 percent of the evacuees went to other than public shelters; and during Hurricane Betsy, only 20 percent requested ass', stance.
Generally, shelter centers are used only if nothing else is available or if one cannot financially care l
for himself. "
In this evacuation time assessment study, it was assumed that the predominant traffic, af ter leaving the 10-mile EPZ, went diverse routes rather than to a shelter destination.
i Therefore, the evacuation time assessment ended at the EPZ boundary.
An analysis of route capacities and service levels n
of highway f acilities beyond that boundary was made to assure that delays or problems were unlikely to occur.
EVACUATION RISKS - AN EVALUATION, U.S. Environmental Pro-(1) taction Agency, Office of Radiation Programs, EPA-520/6 00 2, June, 19 7 4, p. 49.
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Ibid., p. 52.
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3.
Experience gained in a large range of evacuations indi-cates that pri cate vehicles (3)
. were the prademinant mode for evacuation (more than 99 percent).
Population density ranged frem approximately 15 persons per square mile to 20,000 persens per square mile. "
It was assumed that this was applicable to this time assessment study.
It was further assumed that persens without private vehicle transportauien would be provided, at their telephone request, adequate transportation in high occu-pancy vehicles (EOV's).
The additional vehicle volumes en the network would therefore be small, could be affected during the general public evacuation time, and wenld not affect the co=puted evacuation times of the general popult.tien.
4.
It has been cbserved that not all persons will evacuate th e EP 3.
"In many cases, even when presented with a grave threat, people refuse to evacuate."I4I This source centinues, "Results of this study indicate that approximately six percent of the total population refused to evacuate.
Other reports indicate this figure can run as high as 50 percent.
There is no ressen to believe that because the disaster agent is radiation rather than some other agent will provide sufficient motivation to leave.
Rather the opposite viewpoint should be taken--people will hesitate to leave."(5)
It is believed that a. majority of this hesitance is based on fear of exposing their prcperty to looting and vandalism.
Notwithstanding this evidence, this time assessment study assumed that all persons evacuate.
5.
It has been assumed that the traffic network within the EPZ has been isolated so that no through traffic is permitted to enter it within 15 minutes after the evacuatien warning has been iss ued.
(3)
Ibid., p. 52.
(4)
Ibid., p. 48.
(5)
Loc. ci t. ~
6.
Traffic management by appropriate law enforcement officers will be performed at selected intersections where evacuation traffic flow is given priority.
7.
All persons in the EPZ have been provided, in advance, sufficient information regarding the assigned evacuation route from their place of residence (referred to as the " centroid" in the report).
8.
It was assumed that the public response to an evacuation order can be defined as a combination of up to four categories of statistically distributed responses:
receive warninc, leave work, travel home, and evacuate home.
It was assumed that these responses are time-distributed following a normal distribution curve.
The details and application of this assumption are more fully discussed later in this report.
Additional assumptions were made which are discussed in the body of this report.
Description of the Site The Beaver Valley Nuclear power Station is located in Western Pennsylvania, approximately 25 miles northwest of Pittsburgh.
The plant occupies nearly 450 acres T Shippingport Borough of Beaver County en the south bank of the Oi.io River (Figure 1).
The Beaver Valley Region has long been associated with the nuclear industry.
In 1957, the U.S. Navy constructed the first fixed nuclear generating plant in the United States, just east of the present Beaver Valley Nuclear Power Station site.
This facility. is still in operation today as a light water breeder reactor with an energy output of 60 megawatts.
This plant is expected to be permanently decommissioned within five years. _
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.f' STUDY SITE LOCATION EVACU ATION TIME ASSESSMENT BEAVER VALLEY
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The plant under study, the Beaver Valley Nuclear Power Station, is owned by a five-company power pool, the Central Area Power Coordination (CAPCO), and currently has one operating reactor--Beaver Valley Unit Number 1.
This unit has been cperational since 1974 with Duquesne Light and Chio Edison holding the operator's license.
Presently, a second reactor, Beaver Valley Unit Number 2, is under construction and estimated to be operational between 1983 to.1985.
Both are pressuri:ed water reactors built by Westinghouse with each having a design output of approximately 850 megawatts.
In the case of the Beaver Valley Plant, the 10-mile evacuation ring reaches into Ohio and West Virginia, as well as Pennsylvania.
In Pennsylvania, Beaver County contains all of the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ), while Columbiana and Hancock Counties contain the Ohio and West Virginia portions of the EPZ, respectively.
Emergency Planning Area The Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) is defined by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) as the 10-mile radius circum-scribing the plant.
However, it is necessary to describe to the public physical land marks that will confirm the evacuation boundary.
The area enclosed by these geographical boundaries is defined as the Emergency Planning Area.
The boundaries of the Emergency Planning Area in the case of the Beaver Valley Plant are in the form of roadways, township lines, county lines, rivers and a state park property line.
The northern Emergency Planning Area limits are defined as generally following Clarkson-Pancake Road in the Chio portion of the study area to PA 168 and subsequently PA Route 51 into Beaver Falls.
From that point, the boundary turns southward through Rochester by way of local routes 04130 and 04122.
The planning area follows the Ohio River in that area to the Beaver County Line.
The Beaver County line delineates the southern bounda.y
In West Virginia, the :ene is to the West Virginia state line.
defined in parts by County Routes 7 and 9 to East Manchester.
from there, the boundary is set by the Tomlinson Run Northwest State Park property line up to County Route 6 and the Ohio state The western houndary of the Emergency Planning Area is de-line.
Clair township boundary up to fined by the Liverpool and St.
The Leslie Road, where it ties back into Clarkson-Pancake Road.
is situated within the described entire ten-mile radius (EPZ)
Emergency Planning Area boundaries.
Within Pennsylvania, the Emergency Planning Area covers Green, Raccoon, Potter, Center, Hopewell, Independence, Hanover South Beaver, Chippewa and and Brighton Townships completely.
Patterson Townships are partially covered by the Planning Area The western portion boundaries within Beaver Ccunty, Pennsylvania.
The Ohio of tae study area consisted of Ohio and West Virginia.
portion of the Emergency Planning \\rea covers Liverpool and St.
Clair townships entirely along with the southeast portion of The remaining part of the Emergency Planning Middleton township.
The West Virginia section of Area is made up by West Virginia.
Clay the Emergency Planning Area covers parts of Grant and Districts within Hancock County.
General Regional Characteristics The population within the EP3 is critical in the analysis Because the second reactor is still of the evacuation times.
under construction and not expected to be completed for a few years,1985 was taken as a base year for assessing the evacuation 9e 1985 population was obtained by the of che population.
asia Regional Planning Commission for the Southwestern Penns...
Population projections _or Chio and EP: within Pennsylvania.
obtained by straight line West Virginia portions of the EPZ wer.
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extrapolation from the most recent census estimates.
Within the 10-mile radius, estimates for 1985 shcw a population of approxi-mately 142,900 persons.
With the exception of the Borough of Midland, pcpulation inside of a five-mile radius is relatively sparse and rural in The Midland Burough maintains its population concentration nature.
mainly due to the Crucible Steel Plant located within its cor-porate limits.
Within the 10-mile radius, the heaviest concentration of people are located in Aliquippa, Beaver, Monaca, and Rochester, Pennsylvania; East Liverpool, 'Chio; and Chester, West Virginia.
Transportation Facilities - Access throughout the study area is provided by one Federal route, and numerous State and local facilities.
The only Federal route to serve the area is U.S. 30.
This highway travels in Pennsylvania from Allegheny County North-west through Beaver County, a small part of West Virginia and into Columbiana County, Ohio.
Through Beaver and most of Hancock County, U.S.
30 is a two-lane facility.
Just prior to crossing the Ohio River, U.S. 30 widens to 4 lanes and continues with this cross section through East Liverpool and out of the EP3.
Outside of East Liverpool, the highway maintains controlled access.
Pennsylvania Route 60 (Beaver Valley Expressway) is the only other controlled-access highway within the study area.
The four-laned roadway runs north-south, from Allegheny County to north of the EP3.
Other north-south state routes in Pennsylvania include PA 168, PA 18, and PA 51.
South of the EPZ, PA 168 crosses from Beaver County into Washington County as does PA 18.
North through the study area, PA 168 travels through Shippingport, crossing the Ohio River, and on past South Beaver Township.
Pennsylvania State -
Route 18 extends Northeast and crosses the Ohio River. at Rochester and ties into the Beaver Falls community.
Pennsylvania State Route 51 parallels PA 60 (Beaver Valley Expressway) but takes a more circuitous route, extending through Seaver and Rochester.
~
In Pennsylvania, there are three east-west arterials within the EP.
Pennsylvania State Route 151 originates in Green township at a "Y" intersection with U.S.
30 and travels east to the Allegheny County Line.
The other two east-west State routes (PA 68 and PA 251) are located north of the Ohio River.
Pennsylvania State Route 251 is found in the South Seaver and Chippewa Townships and just enters the boundary of the 10-mile radius.
Pennsylvania State Route 68 follows the northern bank of the Chio River from the Ohio state line eastward through Seaver and Rochester out of the study area.
In Ohio, PA 68 continues as Ohio State Route 39 west of the study area.
Other state routes in Ohio are OE 267 radiating northwest from East Liverpool and OH 267, extending north from the town of Calcutta.
In West Virginia, there are only two State routes within the study area, W. Va. 2 and 8. s West Virginia State Route 2 follows the south bank of the Ohio River from Chester west to the boundary of the study area.
The only other State route in the Hancock County portion of the area originates at U.S.
30 near the State line, and is directed southwest out of the IPZ.
Recreational Facilities - Within the Beaver Valley Power Station emergency planning area, there are three State parks, one county park and a boy scout camp.
The Pennsylvania portion of the planning area holds three of the above mentioned sites.
The Raccoon Creek State Park is the largest of all the sites, with camp sites, picnicking areas and the availability of water,
h recreation. -This site is located in Hanover Township, approximately nine miles south of the power station.
Brady's Run County park is considerably smaller, having some camping f acilities and picnic shelters.
This county park is north east of the reactor site, and is located in Brighton Township.
The Boy Scout Camp, sited in Chippewa Township, can serve in the neighborhood of 150 campers.
This f acility is usually most densely populated on the weekends.
l The other two camping f acilities located in the planning area and Beaver Creek State Forest and Tomlinson Run State Park.
These are located in Ohio and West Virginia respectively.
The Ohio park has sites available for campers on horses, trailers, and group camp-ing.
Tomlinson Run State Park has sites for approximately 50 campers.
Support Orcanization obviously, close and timely coordination will be necessary in.a successful execution of the plan.
The organizations that should be notified upon are incident include:
1.
Beaver County Emergency Management Agency
~2.
Hancock County Emergency Services Agency 3.
Columbiana County Disaster Service Agency 4.
Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency 5.
West Virginia offices of Emergency Service 6.
Chio Disaster Services Agency 7.
Federal Errergency Management Agency 8.
Nuclear Regulatory Commission 9.
Department of Energy 10.
Bureau of Radiation Protection 11.
National Guard 12.
Local and State organizations to sid, i.e., police, sheriff, fire, rescue, Emergency Medical Service, etc.
to carry out evacuation plans.
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l Previous Emergency Plannine Ef forts
?so plans have been made to date regarding the evacuation of the 10-mile radius.
Alan M. Voorhees and Associates produced a two-part document entitled " Study Report for the Beaver Valley Power Station Evacuation and Mass Notification."
Part one describes the evacuation plan and estimates of the time it would take, while the second part describes the mass notification means.
This document was prepared for the Duquesne Light Company and published in March of 1980.
The second planning effort was limited to Beaver County, Pennsylvania.
The Beaver County Planning Commission prepared a draft of " Emergency Response Plan for Beaver County, Pennsyl-vania" in April of 1980.
Public hearings regarding the evacuation plans ' are currently taking place.
AREA CHARACTERISTICS for the Beaver To properly estimate the evacuation time it is necessary to not only Valley Nuclear Power Station EP2, beccme f amiliar with population characteristics of the region, but also other inputs that may effect the mobilization of people The topography and meteorcicgical aspects of living in the area.
the site would not only have ef fecta upon any airborne radiation The material but also af fect evacuation routings and times.
area characteristics, as discussed later, were determined through and reconnaissance, local climatological data, extensive mapping, discussions with numerous e:rergency planning people in the area.
Topography The hilly terrain in the emergency planning :ene is charac-At teristic of the northern portion of the Allegheny Plateau.
the Ohio River is approximately 1300 feet the site of the plant, wide with a normal pool elevation. of approximately 665 feet above On either side of the river, hills rise to about mean sea level.
1100 feet above sea level.
At certain locations en the banks,
upstream and downstream of 'the River the grade changes are less as in the severe and allow for a more concentrated development, case of the towns of Beaver and East Liverpool.
Population con-This centrations are also found along the Beaver River Bank.
River, which feeds into the Ohio northeast of the plant is approxi-mately 400 to 500 feet wide.
With the exception of some gradually sloping river banks a majority of the EP: consists of abrupt hills and valleys.
In examining the roadway network in the vicinity most of the road-ways experience severe curves in adapting to the local topography.
a majority of the roadways to be used in evacuation As a result, have poor vertical and horizontal alignment with limited sight _
dis tance.
Rivers also tend to be a barrier to evacuating traf fic, due to the limited crossing locations.
Meteorolcev The topography resulting from the Rivers and ascending hills on either side results in an air basin.
The Seaver Valley Air Basin is between 4 and 5 miles on either side of the Ohio River in the site vicinity of the Nuclear Plant.
These characteristics tend to promote local air pollution problems (atmospheric stag-nation) which is significant approximately four days out of each year.
General wind directions were summarized on an annual average and determined that 37 and 24 percent of the time wind can be expected from the northwest zad southwest quadrant respectively.
The northeast and southeast quadrants produce 10.5 and 24 percent of the wind with 2.5 percent of the time remaining calm.
The Seaver Valley region has a relatively humid climate, Average temperatures kept in the area prove January to be the coldest. month and July to be the warmest.
On an average day in January, the daily maximum ter.aperature is about 350F and a low of 210F.
The warmest part of a typical day in July reaches 830F while the coolest is 61CF.
Recorded precipitation in the area shows May to typically be the wettest while the maximum rainf all in 24 hours2.777778e-4 days <br />0.00667 hours <br />3.968254e-5 weeks <br />9.132e-6 months <br /> was measured at slightly over 1 inch throughout all the months of 1978.
January typically receives the most snow, while in 1978 the largest amount received was approximately 12 inches within any 24-hour period.
Approximately 40 percent of the days throughout the year receive at least some amount of precipitation. i
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Flooding in the area would prohibit travel along portions of Pennsylvania Route 68 within the study area in the 100 year ficod.
However, alternative routing could be provided if th' c condition should exist.
Demography A need for accurate projections of area characteristics and populations is essential to the ' assessment of aa _ evacuation time.
The following subsections describe the distribution of population in addition to areas of.special concern regarding evacuation.
Population - Approximately 142,900 persons are expected t; reside within the emergency planning :one by the year 1385.
These projections were concluded by the use of local planning data and census material.
To effectively model the population evacuation, the EPZ population was divided into 17 :ones and 87 sub:ones to better simulate a distributed population.
The population data provided target year populanien estimates for planning enes within the emergency planning area.
These enes are coded in Table 1 as letters, such as A, B, C, etc.
Further sub:enes of population estimates were made dependent upon the appearance of housing on the United States Geological Survey Quad sheets and field reconnaissance.
Population by each planning zone and subzone (i. e., A-1, A-2, 3-1, etc. ) is shewn in Table 1.
Schools - There are a number of schools within the EPZ that should be included in the evacuation planning.
Within the Beaver County portion of the EPZ, there are a total of 29 public schools, 6 private schools and two colleges.
The number of grade school children is estimated at 18,370.
The college enrollment is approximately 3,000 students.
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i Table 1 FCPULATION SY ZONE Beaver Valley Emergency Planning Zone ZCNE PCPULATION 2CNE POPULATION A-1 900 F-1 690 A-2 1,800 F-2 675 A-3 2,190 F-3 2,400 A-4 6,000 F-4 630 A-5 15,000 F-5 766 Zone A 25,890 F-6 634 F-7 1,105 B-1 3,000 Zone F 6,900 3-2 3,534 Zone 3 6,534 G-1 311 G-2 206 C-1 240 G-3 684 C-2 359 G-4 471 C-3 360 G-5 2,083 Zone C 959 G-6 2,807 G-7 949 D-1 300 G-8 2,466 D-2 1,226 Zone G 9,977 D-3 97 D-4 540 H-1 1,860 D-5 4,982 H-2 1,248 Zone D 7,145 H-3 2,149 E-4 2,627 E-1 600 H-5 3,415 E-2 614 Zone H 11,299 E-3 552 E-4 615 Zone E 2,381 Table 1 (Continued)
ZONE POPULATICN ZONE POPULATION I-l 1,401 M-1 242 I-2 1,126 M-2 600 I-3 3,838 M-3 1,302 I-4 1,420 M-4 694 I-5 600 M-5 308 Zone I 8,385 Zone M 3,146 J-l 2,612 N-1 735 J-2 64 N-2 428 J-3 259 N-3 393 J-4 2,612 N-4 375 J-5 1,995 Zone N 1,931 J-6
~5,541 Zone J 13,083 0-1 114 0-2 573 K-1 79 O-3 103 K-2 1,285 0-4 224 K-3 3,330 0-5 205 K-4 6,630 0-6 525 K-5 2,204 0-7 300 K-6 2,412 Zone O 2,044 K-7 1,417.
K-8 3,802 P-1 1,312 Zone K 21,159 P-2 1,142 Zone P 2,454 L-1
-2,849 L-2 1,147 L-3 2,011 L-4 1,490 L 3,634 Zone L 11,131 !
j Table 1 (C ntinued)
ZONE POPULATION 0-1 1,500 Q-2 1,603 Q-3 2,700 Q-4 300 Q-5 300 Q-6 2,040 Zone Q 8,448 GRAND'TCTAL:
142,866 i
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Schools in West Virginia which are located within the 10-mile EPZ amount to 2,430 grade school children.
The Columbiana
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County, Ohio, portion of the. EPZ has approximately S public grade schools :with 4,940 children, and East Liverpool Campus of Kent State University.
The. enrollment at this campus was not available.
The locations of these schools are shown in Figures 2,
3, 4 and 5.
Table 2 describes enrollment of schcols shown in Figures 2 through 5.
Hospitals - There are nine hospitals within a ten-mile radius-of the site.
The county in which they are located and the estimated number of -patients are shewn in Table 3.-
The locations of these facilities are found in -Figures 2, 3, 4 and 5.
t Recreational Parks - Recreational areas are also shown on l
Figures 2, 3, 4 and 5.
Within the EPZ, there are three state parks, one county park and a Boy Scout Camp.
The Raccocn Creek State Park is the largest of the recreation areas, providing camping and picknicking facilities, alcng with water recreatics, such as swimming, boating and fishing.
During one of their busier days, approximately 1,500 people could be expected.
Tomlinson Run State Park, located in West Virginia, also pro-vides camping facilities.
Approximately 50 campsites are pro-vided at this camp.
The Beaver Cr tek State Forest in Columbiana County is the site of Gretchen Locks Park.
This sits has a 55-trailer capacity and 80 sites for campers with horses, in addi-tion to facilities for group camping.
The one other public park site is Brady's Run County Park in Beaver County.
This site has some camping sites along with picnicking. are as.
The Boy Scout Camp is the last major recrea-tional f acility within the planning area.
These grounds are used primarily on the weekend and may have a population of between 50 and 150 campers, depending upon the season. _ - - -
Table 2 SCHOOL ENROLLMENT Beaver Valley Emergency Planning Zone ENRCLL-CODE SCHOOL COUNTY TYPE MENT S-1 Southside Senior High School Beaver Public 895 S-2 Southside Elementary Beaver Public 803 S Midland Jr.-Sr. High Schcol Beaver Public 267 S-4 Neel Elementary Beaver Public 330 S-5 Western Beaver Sr. High School Beaver Public 723 S-6 Fairview Elementary Beaver Public 325 S-7 Snyder Elementary Beaver Public 325 S-8 Beaver Sr. High School Be aver Public 1,210 S-9 Beaver Jr. High School Beaver Public 373 S-10 Brighton Twp. Elementary Be aver Public 447 S-ll Fort McIntosh Elementary Beaver Public 329 S-12 Vanport Elementary Beaver Public 265 S-13 Center Jr.-Sr. High School Beaver Public 1,335 S-14 Center Grange Elem.
Beave r Public 649 S-15 Todd Lane Elem.
Beave r Public 720 S-16 Hopewell Sr. High School Beaver tblic 1,052 S-17 Hopewell Sr. High School Be ave r Public 836 S-18 Kane.Rd. Elem.
Be ave r Public 389 S-19 Independence Elem.
Beaver Public 247 S-20 Racccon Elem.
Beaver Public 425-S-21 Margaret Ross Elem.
Be ave r Public 405 S-22 Highland Middle School Beaver Public 585 S-23 Marshall Rd. Jr.-Sr. High School Beaver Public 600 S-24 Christy Mangin Beaver Public 380 S-25 Sth Ward Beaver Public 175 S-26 4th Ward Beaver Public 400 S-27 Senior High Beaver Public 812 S-28 Aliquippa Middle School Beaver Public 681 S-29 Aliquippa Middle School Beaver Public 900 S-30 Beaver Valley Christian Academy Beaver Private 209 S-31 Our Lady of Fatima School Beaver Private 235 S-32 St. John the Baptist School Be aver Private 209 S-33. S. S. Pe ter and P aul School Bea"er Private 206
. S-34 Presentation School Beaver P rivate 206 S-35 St. Titus School Beaver P rivate 408 S-36 Chester Elemmentary Hancock Public-415 S-37 Chester Intermediate Hancock Public 301 S-38 Wells Jr. High Hancock Public 262 S-39 Jefferson Elementary Hancock Public 395 S-40 Chester Jr. High Hancock Public 329 S-41 Oakglen High School Hancock Public 728 S-42 Calcutta Elementary Columbiana Public 560 S-43 Taft Elementary Columbiana Public 454 S-44 Westgate Elementary Columbiana Public 486 i v
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Table 2 (Cent ' d)
ENRO LL-CODE SCHOOL COUNTY TYPE
. VENT S-45 Middle School Columbiana Public 366 S-46 East Liverpool High School Columbiana Public 999 t
S-4 7 East End Elementary Columbiana Public 491 S-48 North Elementary Columbiana Public 604 S-49 East Liverpool Jr. High Columbiana Public 883
'C-1 Community College of Beaver County Beaver County 2,000 C-2 Penn. State University' Beaver County 1,069 C-3 Kent State University Columbiana N/A TOTAL 28,713 t
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Table 3 HOSPITAL POPULATION Beaver Valley Emergency Planning Zone CODE HOSPITAL NAME COUNTY PATIENTS H-1 Aliquippa Hospital Be ave r 500 H-2 3eaver Valley Geriatric Center Beaver 665 H-3 Medical Center Beave: County Beaver N/A H-4 Golfview Manor Beaver 60 H-5 East Liverpool Hospital Colurbiana 247 E-6 Adkins Nursing Colurbiana N/A H-7 East Liverpool Cont. Care Columbiana-20 H-3 Nintwicks Colurbiana 20 H-9 Ross Colurbiana 50 TOTAL 1,592 4
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AN - AoOLT NURSLNG HOWES Quaonamr =ctu 3
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was by the use of a number of sirens.
It is suggested that ve-hicles with mounted loudspeakers also be utilized to notify the public.
A specified message from these vehicles would indicate that an evacuation has been recommended and to turn en their radios for additional information.
Radio stations must be pro-viced with complete, accurate and current information.
They should have prior zone descriptiens and repeat recommended routing information.
They should have phone nurbers people can call should these people require special evacuation assistance or additional information.
Public Response Time There can be up to four activities preceding the evacuation f rom the home which can be statistically distributed in tire :
(1) Receive warning; (2) Leave work; (3) Travel home; and, i
(4) Evacuate home.
Each of the respense times may have dif-ferent distributiens, depending upcn the particular scenario being assessed.
Receipt of Notification - Receipt of notification is assumed to approach a normal distribution in time; the re fo re,
the accumulated probability approaches an "S"
curve.
This dis-tribution can be approximated by three straight line s.
One line, passing through the 50 percent, 16 percent and 94 percent distributions, represents two time increments.
One straight line from zero to 16 percent represents one time increment.
The third straight line from 84 to 100 percent represents one time inc rement.
It is assumed that the time increments are five
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This distribution means that 16 percent will have been notified within the first five minutes, 50 percent will have
been notified notified in ten minutes, 84 percent will have been notified in 15 minutes, and 100 percent will have teen notified in 20 minutes.
(See Volume I for more detail.)
Departure From Place of Werk - Departure from the place of work is assumed to approach a normal distribution curve in the same manner as receipt of notification.
Distributien is approx-imated by three straicht lines and four five-minute time incre-ments.
The distribucion assumes that 16 percent will depart from their place of work in five minutes, 50 percent will depart in ten minutes, 84 percent will depart in 15 minutes, and 100 percent will depart in 20 =inutes.
(See Volume I for more detail.)
Travel Frem Werk to Home - The time of travel to the hcme approaches normal distribution of time in the same manner as the two previous respenses.
Under normal conditions this distribu-tien assumes that 16 percent will travel to home in five =inutes,
50 percent in 10 minute s, 84 percent in 15 minutes, and 100 percent will travel to home in 20 minutes.
This distribution is expanded in certain scenarios, specifically that of the adverse weather scenario.
(See Volume I for more detail.)
Departure Frcm Ecme - Departure frcm home also approaches a normal distribution in time and the accumulated probability approaches an "S"
cu rve.
The distribution is approximated by three straight lines in the same manner as the above three re-spenses.
The acti tity is distributed over eight five-minute periods for a total of 40 minutes.
The distribution indicates that eight percent will depart frem home in the first five minutes, 16 percent in ten minutes, 33 percent in 15 minutes, 1
50 percent in 20 minutes, 67 percent in 25 =inutes, 84 percent j
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detail. )
Evacuation Network Figures 6, 7, 8 and 9, The evacuation network, as shown inopulation to be served, h was selected based upon adjoining pnts of the road network, roadway The i
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possibilitier.
crcss-sections, and alternative rout ngf roadway types, including system is comprised of a variety o d major arterial facilities.
local access streets, collector roads anh d manually by consider-The evacuation routing was establis ei n and coded for ccmputer ing the above characteristics of the reg eThe ulation within modeling.
each sub:ene into equivalent vehicles A vehicle occupancy of i d network distributed over a time per o.was chosen, assuming a typ three persons per vehicle hold size in the region.
routes were chosen to result Once on the existing network, In many cases, more e
in the least evacuation time for each =cn.
In the evdcu-by a common highway.
than ene zone was evacuated sumed to be the location at ation assumptions, the home was asble and depart. Because the which the f amily unit would assemd return home, and later begin time in which the workers woul assumed to be kept open to evacuation, overlap, all roadways were two-way traf fic.
ntroid vehicles ento Lccal roadways were used to load the ceIn the var id connectors generally the existing highways.
Valley Power Station EP::, these centroTherefore, in coding the netwo are used caly for local access.
assigned a travel for computer applicatien, these links were 3
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- EV ACU ATION ROUTE wts s EVACUATION NETWORK BEAVER VALLEY l
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Evacuation Time Assessment Stucy "Ms//are Mass /4 dsed Maar/es riGURE 9 l
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a directienal capacity of 1,000 speed' of 15 miles per hour and a one-vehicles per hour (vph).
10-mile EPZ generally
' State and local highways within thetal alignment due to the have belcw average vertical and horizonThese signed an hilly terrain. -
average running speed of 30 miles perHigher type controlled a 30 in Ohio and the Beaver-capacity of 1,000 vph.
such as the northwest portion of U.S.
eeds and capacities.
Vasey expressway, were assigned greater spge running speed was In both of these roadway links, the averaith a capacity of 1,000 vph considered to be 50 miles per hour, wf 2,000 vph, due..to each per lane, or an effective capacity o Access ento the expressways f acility having two lanes outbound.
y capacities.
Expressway was considered independent of the freewawith an average speed locps and ramps were coded into the system f 1,500 vph.
of 20 miles per hour and a capacity o This table etwork.
Table 4 ~ contains ' a description of the nd of a given link, the dis-contains two node nurhers for each enassumed speed for that. link, h
tance between nodes in miles, t e in the direction of its total capacity in vehicles per hour
?or example, the dw ay.
evacuation, and the identity of the roa d
151.
The distance first link in' Table 4 is from Node 10 to No eiles per hour, the is 1.06 miles, the assigned speed is 30 m campground i
gment is on capacity is 1,000 :vph, and the roadway se sent the best l
The values assigned to each link repredway geometry, width, judgement of these factors considering roa Road.
terrain and other factors.
with a link-node Table 'S describes the evacuation routes the numb i
description by centroid. - This table g ve This tabulatien te passes.
node through which each evacuation rou to make a coherent network.
combines the links in Table 4 together 7..
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-n;;I <' E :.ii 1 13 ROADWAY IDENTITY L
!!" 1 0e 30.0 1000 Campground Road
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4000 OH 7 and 39
- !
- .30 i;.:
4000 U.S.
30
.I 135'. 39
.;.0 000-Sprucevale-S t. Clair Ave.
17
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1000 Sprucevale-St. Clair Ave.
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t.0 4 00 U.S.
30
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- 0 OH 267 I!. ;.ii i;.0
- 0. >0 Calcutta-Smith Ferry Rd.
155 4.!!
70.0
- 00 OH 170 141 2.!
.;00 Calcutta-Smith Ferry Rd.
R 19 0.32 v..
IMO Calcutta-Smith Fer:y Rd.
- 0
.45 i:.0
- 000 Calcutta-Smith Ferry Rd.
2.:
23
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1000 PA 168
- I
- 4 r.3
.000 PA 168 II :..'!
30.;
- }00 PA 168-278 d
- 4
^.34 30..
.000 278-PA 168 27 0.?:
30.0 1;00 PA 168 29..!:
M.0
.000 PA 168
!? G.!!
70.0 1000 04602
' 0,0
- 000 PA 168 30. 30 3;
- !4 ;.21 E.
.M0 PA 168 2.
24 ;.,*3
.-:.0
.000 04003 I:
I3 1.13 20 0 1000 04013 73 11 0.33 10.0
- cco 278 I4
!! 2.!!
30.0 1000 04003 15 n 1.!0
?0.0 1000 04003T402 3-
!!? 0.42 30.0 1000 T402 P 1.!:
I;.0 1000 278 15 37 0.3?
30.0 1000 278
?
40 0.7:
30.0
- 000 T428 40 13 3.i4 3;.0 1000 T624-T30 4;
4: 2.13 30.J 1000 04107/PA 6A 4
43 32; 70.0 1000 PA 68 di 44 :.70 0.0 1:00 Ramp 44 o0 2.3s
!0.0 4000 PA 60 4
44 0.30 20.0 1500 Ramp 4
44 0.45 5.0 4000 PA 60 47 45 0.20 20 0 1000 PA 68 43 47 0.39 30.0 1000 PA 68 49 50 1.0$
l0.0
- 000 PA 68/PA 65 50
- od 0.50 30.0 1000 PA 65 16 0.22 20.0 iC00 04104 )
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- E h
- rd CAP RCADWAY IDENTITY 1:1 !.??
30.;
10M PA 51 iI 54 :.;l D.0 -
10x 04120 5-5:. 45 30.0 1000 04120
- > ' 40 30.0 1000 04120 to
.:7 30.0
- MO 278
!?
)..A 20.0 1000 04041
!i
- 34 ;.0
!0.0 -
1000 04033/278 f:
- 0
..IO
..:. 0 1500 Ramp sv 120 3.i9 10.0 4000 PA 60 e;
- 3
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30.0 1000 A892 33 1.5:
I;.0 1000 972 33 f4 D.0 1000 C4066/04053 8
- 2.4s 34.0 1000 04053/0432 0
O.9 30.0 IN0 04032 sc 47 0..?
!0.0 1000 A254 s
.27 0.i?
D.0 1000 East' Rochester Bridge ac
- v ;.04 3;.0 0 00 04015 2?
': ).14 30.0
- NO Rochester Bridge
- ) ;.44 37.0 IN0 PA 51 20 1.00 0.0
- X0 PA 51 7
',0
- .:3 30.0 190 Rochester Bridge 73
'4 I*.0 1000 PA 51/115 0.34
- s.O
!!00 Ramp i
4e
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4000 PA 60
).I4 l0.0 15%.
Loop Ramp
..:1 50.0 4400 PA 60 79 74 0.47 30.0 1000 PA 18 7:
73
31 1.29 10.0 1000 PA 18 35 30
- .0 1500 Ramp E:
77 1.i3
!0.0 4000 PA 60 53
!2 ).3) 23 0 1:00 Ramp 34 il 0.49 30.0
- 000 76 s
4
.30 50.0 4000 PA 60 is 37 1.80 30.0 1000 04074/0479 57 laa 1.72 20.0 1000 04019/A254 58 170 0.92 30.0 1000 A294 si
>,d 0.67 30.0 1000 TS82 90 91 0.43 30.0 1000 04019 Pi d5 4.:6 10.0 1000 04019/04123 92
- 0.97 10.0 1000-04123 93 142 0.48 30.0 1000 04123 74
- 70 4.
- '
50.)
4000 PA 60 9
94 3.42 20 0 1 00 Loop Ramp j
4 d6 2.24 30.)
1000 04043/04070
?7 4 0.it 30.0 1000 04123
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IPiD CAP ROACWAY IDENTITY i?
F7
.4 30.0
- G00 04123 it
- c
- ..-
- 30. 0 1000 04079/04123 X
.70 20.0
- "00 PA 51
~;;
10'. GJ4 30.0 1000 PA 51
- 0 103.
- . 41 10.0 1000 PA 51 10I 171 4.
'.0 1000 PA 51
- 01 173 4
3;.0 1000 04167 t;t
.07 0.:3
- .0
- 000 04070
- 7 M
4.!'
!0.0
- 00:
04084/04069
- 7 10? 0.e9 35.3 1000 T369 100 1
- 0
- .31 10.0 1000 04069 ti' 174. 23 D.0' 1000 T319 21 110 4.??
10.0 1000 PA 151/T514/T319 11I :.:3 10.0 1000 483
- 1!
1;J " ~3 i'.0 MO 483
- 4
.;! ;.t:
34.0
' '6 PA 18 i;!
1;i...
30.0 JK PA 18 1;o 117
- 0.0 '
10t:0 PA.18 1:3 3.;;
GO 1000 U.S.
30 1;i
.75..il M.0 1000 U.S.
30 1;i 113 1.25
!;.0
- 000 04075 11
- .17 70 1000 T452/T367/U.S. 30 12;
- 44..-
10.0
- Ma U.S.
30
.23 s co E.0 10CC PA 18 1:3 1's i:. $
I;.0 1000 PA 18 1:a
- .1 1.;?
?J 0 iM; PA 168 127,.33 3;.0 IX0 T370
- e 123 3.!6 IG.0
.000 278
- 7 1:S
.07 30.0
- M0 T370 129 1.26 IC.0
- 000 PA 168
- e
- 30
..sa 3".C 000 PA 168
.30 131 :.14 30.0
10.0 1000 W.
VA. 8 133 7 :.05 '
30.0 1000 W. VA. 8 114 175 :.27 10.0 1000 3
125 13e 0.72 10.0 1000 W. VA. 2 13o 13' :..i 30.0 1000 W. VA. 2 3'
!?? 1.C5 30.0 1000 W.
VA. 2 s:6 14. 33 30.0 1000 Prucevale-S t.
Clair Ave.
- I4 5+ 0.41 30.0 1M0 04041 140 88
- 0. 3 30.0 1000 04019 141 13 0.;3 30.0 1000 OH 170 to:
86 0.;
30.0 1000 04123 144 1:2 0.40 10.0 1G40 PA 18 501 10 0.!0
- .0 1000 cae mid Connector
[D
(
Table 4' (Cont'd) wC:E C E ;137 i?ID ROADWAY IDENTITY 5;:
- a. 3 15.0 1000 Centroid Connector ici
.1
- .2
.5.0
.4000
'04
!! ).50 15 0 1000
'0'
- i.:(
2!.0 4000
.ve 1: 0.50 15 0 1000 507
!s 2.50 15.0 1000
'06 30 0.!0 1".0 1000
$05 23. 10 15 0 1000
$13 l O.25 15.0 1000'
- 4...
.-,'.,.0
.095 51 24 0 30 15.0
- 000 51!
f,. * ! '
.!.G 10M 514
? 03-
.5.0 1000 ili
- ;.2
.'.0 1000
!!t is 2.5)
!!.0 10e) a 51'
.! v.2
- 5 2 1000 ili
- .f',
- !.0.
1000 24 15.0 1000'
!!i 33 <.2
- '.0 1000
?:.
2: >. :0 l' 0 10&0
- 38 0.50 i'.0 1000 a
C1 32. 22 15.0 1000-
!!4
!i 0.25 15 0 1000 fS 41 ?.3
- !.0 1000 Et 4:
v.
)
S.3 1000 f;7 e2 0.2
.0 1000 54 0. ;
- $.0 1000 C4 55..
- !
!!.0 1000 53C.
'I 0 2's
- '.0 1000
'31 11 0.25 t0.0 1000 3
164 0.20 15.0 1000 f!I
- 0.3 II.0 1000 534
- 0.25 15 0 1000
'3!
Se 0.3 15.*
1000 a
!34 57 0.!a 13.0 1000 G7 47 0. 5
-l'.0 1000 533 48 0. 3 15.0 1000 G7 44 0.2 l'.v 1000
!44 68 0.;0 -
15.0 1000
- 1
. 6e 0.2 l'.0-1000
$4: '
9 0.!'v l'.0 1000
!al 47 0.!Q l'.0 1000
'44 36 0.25 15.0 1000
!45 71 3.S 15.0 1000 5-e 75 0. 2 15.0 1000 547 90 0.2 t'.2 1000
" s
h
'\\ t t
Table 4-(Cont' d)
ROADWAY-IDENTITY 4;DI CE OI57
!;ED
- cap Centreid Connector
~;5.0 1000
,Ac ~
'2
..a 545 31
- 50
!!.0 1000 39 94 1 00
".0 1000-1:? :.3 15.0 1000 37 0.:7 1'.0 1000 Mi 38 0.3
- !.0 1
- 00 l'0 i.3
- .0 1000
!!5
% J.;5
!.0 10cc
- 91 o3
- .0 1.00
?2 010
- .0 -
inco
~
36 13 0.50 i'.0 1000 3
.01 0.3 t!.0 1000 a
5.-
100 0. 3
- .0 1000 a
!:1
- 03 *. )
- .0 10cc a
So; 103 :.'C
. ::.0 1000 a
50.2 10: 4.3
- '.0 1000 a
h4 74 :.50
- !.0
.000 a
fo5
- 0.f0 000 a
!6e 118 '!0 15.0 1000
'e7 19 }3
.!.0 1000 m
'63 M: 0.25 1' 0 1000 a
foi 103 0. 3 11.0 100C a
!70 1:1 :.50
!!.0 1C00 a
57 109 0.3
.!.0 1000
=
!72 119 '. 3
'!.0 106) a
$73 13
..;0
- !.0 100v a
574 125
,.!)-
- .c 1;00 a
575 124
'.50 15.0 1000 a
576 1*2 3.25
!!.0
- 000
=
- !77
.27
>'.*)
I'.0 1000 a
54 12' 3
l'.J 1000 a
5 71 131 ?..:.
15.0 1000 a
550 12:-0.20
'15.C 1000 a
581 13: 0.3
.t.0 1000
=
562 136 ;.20 15 0 1000 a
'33
!!7 4.3
!!.C 1000 a
'33 134 0.3
- .0 1000 185 132. 3
!.0 1000 a
58e 133 C.3 '
-15.0
- 000 a
$37 1:00.3 15.0 1000
l l
Table 5 EVACUATION ROUTE-LINK NOCE DESCRIPTION By Centroid Seaver Valley Emergency Planning Zone
.N 0:I
- CI: 9:i1 CI4 CE!'GE6 CE* CE3 wee v;LE 10 *0If.: +.:s.: :LE :2.5
- f.!
f..* e.
++
4: !02
- 35
- 4
.C d4
.s, 44 u 94
- 3
- Is a
D
!!4
..s
- e.,
4 s1
- 06 Le 2:
5 e..s,
- o.. r.
C1
!09 6
7 n
.s.
.a.
n.9 r.e
.s.
2:-
h 27
'4 30
- 6 36
- !7 it!.
24 33
.1 IS
..s
.a
- 14
.I 4
3:
3*
35 36
- !7 M :'
- I 24 II 34 35 Ie 15 El
- ::
34
. a..s,
- u...
o.
s 63 :13 35 3e 157 id 24 6'
1"9 4
'20 33 Il 34 35 36 t'7
~; !!:
37 39 40 l'S 0 $22 03 35 -
40 158
~4 13 I:-
33 31 34 35 36 157 "f
!!4 "3
137
'9 60 160 4
E6 41 42 43 44 60 160 77 526 _
42'
'I 44 60 160 -
9 0.
'b5$
0 ]h(^' T m
D ix c]i J'
Table 5 (Cent'd)
.:i! Ci; < E. *:.- 3 CE 4 *::E 5:E: CE7 CEi CE C E 1; WE.. <!E :2 CI 13. 2E 14 JA 3.
3 2,
.,?
- a..
.z,
14.-
s.
- )
t..* @
8
. s.9
.J
.J a
a a.
.s u..
n
- s..
w..
.s
.e
~<
J.
..~
.s J
..J
.8
.t
- f. i. g
+
16
.e 91 U$
C
..f N
2)
.0Y h
-3;
'i 0
140 3
'3' 45 u
30 150 4
U 3
47 di J4 30
- g0 Gi e'
!0 iss
- .l.
- s 9
l2
!?
ue 9
v-
- r. *.,
33 Se
.s 7
.?
- a. g.a 9
.i$
I4
- 43 57
'83 23 3..
.C.
,48 A
a si
!41 70 si 7:
'O 16s C.
'.4 Ti
'6 77 4e 44 60 th0
.a
,4,
- 0 3
.x.
v4
,n.
J4 ' ~.
- 3 I
I4 7I 44 44 30 16h
!43 31 i:
94 172
.e
'!?
64 33 i:
77 75 46 44
- 0
!$0 A
!:1 139 N
!?
i3 170 O
k Table 5
-(Cont'd).
- M G ; CE: <I I iCX 4 CE 5 CE 4 MK7 <tE3 GEi *CX 10 CE 1; G E :: 60tE 13 v..E 14 e3 13
- 0 e.r.4
,. 4,-
3:
A!
25 is 2;
IC:
173 4
%1 "le 91 173 0
57 2;
35 74 172 j,
- 3 t!!
83
- 4 8 3 1*o 107' 109 110 174 i
'1
!!9
- 11 1::
103 171 l
+2 "60 1M d'
- 03.
171
.3
!al 123
- 71
.4
!s" 63 17;
!s2 1"
fe.
l3 71
'7
?!
44 44 30 160 1'
!s!
79 87 ~
is 104 107 107 110 174
- el fee 1:4
- 11 114
- 17
-119 175 d4
!a?
et '
77
?:
- 0s -
107 109-110 174
.5
!aa Lie 117 113 175
- 1
!ei
- 6 d7 104' 110 ~
174
.4
,,e
.o u
m3
!;l 104
' 1 ',
174 N4 C*
118 ila 17:
4 h
03 1:e 13, 129 130 131 1:3 174 0
94
'1:5 12' -
1:3 129 130 131
- 1*3 176 C3 575
- 4 1~3 1*9 130 131
' 1:3 -
174 L4 175
-112
- 3 114 115 116 117 118 175 O!
07
- O
'1 1 129
'130' 131
- 1:3 176
. i C3 C3
'3-130 131 123-174 j
i l
.1 i
4 1
y4, y
,.r r,.
.-3...%,
y
O C
t'
)
' :M CE. 10 E : 4C*E! CE4 C E ! 3C E CE7 CE2 C E
- C E 10 CE:1 C E :: CE ;3 vGE.4 3:
'I;
- "I 176 a.
- s,
.,3
.., 6 L ti; 53!
.34 127
- 75 3
- 532
- .h
.I7 178 22 533
- ~7 179
- 4 f54
- 14
.~3
- 32
- 13 177 k
55.
III
- 77 07 !57
- C 1
- 1 144 123 174 9
Table 6 indicates the number of vehicles on cach link.
The number of vehicles is determined by the population to be evacuated with a vehicle occupancy averaging 3.0 persens The number of vehicles en each link in this tal;1e per vehicle.
is a summation of all the vehicles from the different centroids that use any specific link of roadway.
4 Seecial Traffic Centrol Strategies Special traffic control strategies were applied to the Beaver Valley Power Station Evacuation routing in order to ebtain an orderly and ef ficient evacuation procedure.
An example of a Clair Township special traffic control strategy is shown in St.
in Columbiana County.
At the intersection in Calcutta, traf fic traveling northwest f rom centroid D-3 would be directed northbound on Ohio Route 70, in order to not create a conflict with traffic northbound from East Liverpool heading northwest en Roate Til31.
The actual network was coded with two nodes at this intersection to create an intersection with zero conflicts.
A similar situation occurs in Hanover Township at the intersection of State Route 18 and U.S.
30.
At.this intersection, traffic traveling from Node 121 to 122 will not conflict with vehicles traveling between Nodes 166 and 118.
Soecial Transportation Problems Special transportation prcblems in the EPZ do exist in the form of hospitals and schools.
Each of these situatiens needs to be handled ef fectively and efficiently.
Ecspital patients muld be released where possible and allcwed to evacuate with the aid of f amily or friends.
Patients under intensive care or unable to be readily moved would take cover widlin the hospital with a minimum number of hospital workers.
D R $ l(5)l y,
n
'S NJY; f 0
Table 6 VEHICLES ON EACH LINK (Normal Weekday)
Beaver Valley Emergency Planning Zone A
3 A
B Node Node Veh.
Node Node Veh.
10 1:1 300 53
!4 15:
- 1 150 730-4
- ~5
- 2 1:
5000 16 4:3 13 136 m
s 139 6:0 4
17
- 6J 57 139 416
.5 1:3 5000 i3 139
- o 10M.
40 1:91
'!4
- 400 A
100 3:79
- i 1210 el 63 694 9
141 3:
22 41 103 20 19 3
$3 e4 797 20 3
34 o!
- 002 23 16e0 25 159 1
- 06
- 3 24 1940 ce 67 37
- 4 31
- 43 67 167 13:4 6
- 50 sf 447
~
27 h0 29 7:
1337
.3
'9 20
'O 69 570
.9 29
- 19 4
70 170 2i 30 339 7:
5:
1337 30 156 419 73 78 970 34 2625
~
7:
570 33 2:0
^!
4e 2319 33 31 440 76 17 i31 34 3:
2688 77 7:
- 946 3
34 2972 73 76
- 01 io 157 3072 7:
78 30 37 39 30 31 34 Id 39 900 81
.31 753 39 40 102 30 77 1947 40 158 10:5 33 32 1947 41 42 S4 83 1847 4:
43 57' 35 94
- 1 43 -
44 579 So 97 000 44 60 4998 87
!aa
$73 4:
44 1591
!8 170 3/48 i
44 44 2813 39 38 49 47 45 1591 90 91 734 48 47 57 91 10:
1!J8 49 50 1138 92 95 472 50 las l47:
93 142 1:a7 51
!$5 80 94 1/2 12:3
!2 141 316
Ag i
i I
Table 6 (Cont' d)
A B
A B
Node Node Veh.
Node Node Veh.
it id 47
'37 179 i!36 96 Me tefi
- D 14
- 00
'I b
431
- 3?
!9
- 271 Ji 77 431' 120 98
- 10 ii 99 200 241 18 32 100 100
!i;.
14:
4 1:47 M.
102
- 949 144 122 100
!?2 123 133 50!
10 300 102 17:
- 47'
!?:
!!8 300 M:
172 27n 503 11 720 10:
107 lei 9
'04 13 2000 ti?
10?
1943
!( *
'000 "04 107
- 45
'3 3
1000
~i
-110 2074 W
16 1178 11.'
' 174 bi 30 50 11:
110 14:
509 03 119
- 3 74 510 27 100 1:3
.:4 74
- 00
- 1. -
5:3
- 2 24 408 h2 21 32 1:a 3:0 1:
1:7 610 L'
23 130 117 113 310 515 22 Iede 118 175 72 Me 34 200 119 118
!!7 6:
204 1?
1:1 100
'18 35 154 1:1 144 100 519 64
- 5 122 1:3 440 520 33 230 123 176-1423 C1 37
.9.
1:4 128 34
'22
!8 800 125 127 191 C3 3:
210 1:4 1:3 38 C4 58 127 109 2:9 C:
41 105 127 231 Os 4:
243 129 130 504 527 42 D3 "8
'4 ea 130 13 504 131 123 943 529 55 r3 132 133
- 00 530 53 17 133 177 730 53:
61
>$ 4 134 179 100 53 1*44 935 12 134 400 533 52 3:s 134 137 6034 -
.524 n
3:2.
L d
,_,.._.y m
n 0
(,.
Table. 6 (Cont ' d) i A
B A
B Node Noda Veh.
Node Node Veh.
- n to 620
!s2 103 496 lis 57 412
!s3 l '.'
1:13
'37 47 714
- 44
/*
30 f3!
48 8?!
'd:
- 7 000 lI?
49 1128 hs i.14 434 540 a8 437 527 is 231 541 so U:
"43
- 15 to:
'4 67.
1:;i
'o9 1;3 4
543 87 473
!?0 111 14 f44 36
- S 131 545 71 8%
- 2
- 19 125 546 78 01 C3 13 38 547 30 -
34 574 i;
191 543 73 871 57:
- 4 34
'M 81 641 03-gt:
74 i:0 34
- 247 57-1:7 48 SI 149 578 129 175 S2 39 4:3 e79 3t 437 53 38 1110 190
- O 380 24 140 2210 Sil 1H
'00 25 70 734 r,32 13.
$34 U2 91 304 583 137 700 C
92 472 554 134 100 5'3 93 1267 53:
!!2 100
!!?
101 749
'86 133 680
- 40 100 38 587 120 100
!al 103 670
' 1.
O
~ *
- Schools would also create a special transportation problem in the event of an evacuation.
Under the assu=ptien that fami-lies would assemble at home and subsequently evacuate, the school children must be transported from the schools to home.
In an ef fort to quickly and efficiently distribute children through the area, those pupils riding school buses would be dropped off at central locations near their homes.
These central location points would allcw parents to pick up their children without creating excessive congestion near the school grounds.
The details of the portion of this plan are beyond the scope of this work effort; howe ve r, they are very necessar/ in the evacuation planning.
In studies of previous evacuation efforts, it has been proven that approximately 99 percent of the population evacuates by private automobile.
Ecweve r, sore public transportation must be provided at central locations to transport those without vehicles out of the EP".
The central boarding points, number of buses, and number of runs, again, is beyone the scope of this study but must be deterrined in a final plan.
Sector Evacuation Evacuation plans are usually set up on a sector or quadrant basis.
This assessment has not been concerned with segmenting the 10-mile radius.
The assessment looked at total evacuation from the EpZ.
However, this does not preclude evacuation by quadrants.
Quadrants can be examined from the data in this report.
Sector evacuation can be approximated by the selection of appropriate planning zones. l l
l
- 1
- i-EVACUATION TIME ASSESSMENT Evacuation times have been considered for four different scenarios.
The scenarios are:
(1)
Normal weekday - workers at work, children in school; (2)
Ideal conditions - nighttime, mest everycne at heme ;
(3)
Adverse weather conditions - icy road conditiens and snow; and (4)
Summer - recreational peak.
The assessment was performed by computer to a process de-scribed in some detail -in Volume I.
Normal Weekday The evacuation times by centroid are listed in Table 7 for a normal weekday.
These evacuation times include the notifica-tion time, departures frem work or schools, the assemblage of families at their homes, and the evacuation travel time from the ten-mile radius.
In examining the table, approximately 80 percent of the population zones c;m be completely evacuated wi9tn two and a half hours.
However, there are scme definite
'prcblem areas.
Subzone K-4 requ!.res the longest travel time with slightly over four hours.
Other subzones within the Aliquippa area experience congestien problems in exiting.
The heavier populations in this zone, along with the lack of suf-ficient radial capacity away from the site contribute to the overicading problem.
The village of Midland (subzone D-5) experiences the second Icngest travel time at three hours and 42 minutes.
The distance required to evacuate, along with its employment densi-ties make this subzone another problem aren.
Midland is directly across the river from the Beaver Valley Nuclear Power Site and therefore would be prone to experience the most severe cencentra-
- i en of airborne radiation, should an incident occur.
l l
D @ [l D
- @[U
@) AF','f"
'T w
a Table 7 EVACCATION TIMES BY CENTROID (Minute s)
Beaver Valley Emergency Planning Zone Normal Weekday lGghttime Adverse Weather
- E* TIS!D
?imi
- rg'90F CEncit:
TI E A1 19 41 Al les A
121 4:
1;,e 42
.I-A3 78 43 e3 43 IGo A4 134 A4 14v 4
201 4
59 45 37 45 100 h
23 it 19 si ne B:
100 i:
97 h2 123 C1 31 01 es 61 111 C
37 72
,2 1:1 0?
?s 03 71 C3 120 31 93 G
in vL um D:
167 D2 1:2 02 21.
8,3 94 03 79 93 137 h4 179
- 4 la
- 4 212 l'
222 1
y-35 251 il 90
- 1 G
11; C
69 t2 l4 f.2 104 E3 104 E3 n
I3 13:
le 94 I4 74 E4 114 31 133 F1 124 F
175 8
il 32
/o
+2 19 F3 39 F3
- 4 23 1
id 143 34 1:3 F4 187 F
104 F5 W
F3 1:a is 45 Fs Su 36 14 il
- 1 G
- a Fi 133 T.
99 01 d4 r:1 124 G2 73 32 33 G2 10e G3 77 03 o,
di 104 34 SO G4 v.
34 110 35 102 2,
S7 G*
131 34 79 36 as 34 102 d7 34 G7 39 37 113 38 76
, G8 el 33
- 103 103 41
~1 121 a2 102 42 S1 n2 119 0
121 "I
104 n3 134 H4
!!3 M4 Icu 4
140 4
160 MS 147 n5 177
!a7
- N 1:
175 e-97 12 30
.4 117
!3 117
- 3 10;
!3 12:
!4 80
!4 6h I4 111 i
i
-43
r
- e..e
'{
D Table 7
( Cent ' d)
Normal Weexday Nightt.ime Advarse. Weather e
- ic?0 D tri i CI.4'F OIO
?!M i -:Eh' sone
- i 33 od 15 I:s J1 171
- 6 J1 19 J2 i3 J2 73
'J 1:a 38l!
- 3 73 43 30
93 4
?
J4
!?'
4 de
.i
.5 123 144 l se
- 29 Jo 17
.6
.1 76 !
kl
- 1 C
C 172 l A2
!!7
'2 N.
- T M,. '
s?
..g s3 15 84
- 43 ;
e,4 225 s4 l'i i
(5 193 f?
173
)!
212
'o 23
- s 192 h.a
- 7 A7 83 a A7 ed K7 11;.
a6
- fi 9
- p ra is
'6s
- $3 3
L2 175 L2
,37 i,
is) 3 17' t.3 147' L3
- 2 "4
178 Le 147 L4 a;
L3
!3?
te
,er 164 r;
74 31 7;
7 "2
!7
,9.2 II?
'2 e3 39 33 3
-3
- 4~
34 152 34 I4
~4 17:
e
'i' o3 3
n 1:0 1;
- 0*
'l
.cv
- 2 96 m2 SA 4
133 N3 95 43 30 13
- 28 4
33 d4 ad
4 li' C1 1:9 01
+-
01 1+9 J;
- 4 02 109 J2 AU 03 1
- 4 33 to; 03 153 04 103 -
04 35 04 154 23 14e 05 121 2:
10e c,
<<g s
,n, C4 141
~
Pi I;i P1 ee
?!
Ih
,2 127
?
P2
- I
?2 is 21 139 21 124 7.1
!!4 C
133 22
.27 92 lu JI 132 G3 av 23 14'-
94 31 a
3a J4 111 J5 58 G5
~3 25 125 34 W
G6 3:
16 1:0 37 20 27 10:
07 144 t