ML19312A333

Preliminary Evacuation Time Study of 10-Mile Radius Emergency Planning Zone

ML19312A333
Person / Time
Site:	Dresden
Issue date:	01/31/1980
From:	STONE & WEBSTER ENGINEERING CORP.
To:
Shared Package
ML17192A585	List: ML17192A584 ML19312A333 ML19312D220 ML19312D221 ML19312D224
References
NUDOCS 8003210549
Download: ML19312A333 (57)

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l PRELDi1 NARY EVACUATION TD!E STUDY l

OF THE 10-MILE RADIUS DIERGENCY PLANNING ZONE AT THE DRESDEN STATION January 1980 Prepared for Commonwealth Edison Company i

by Stone & Webster Engineering Corporation

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TABLE OF CONTENTS Section' Title Page l'

SUMMARY

...-...................... 1-1 2-INTRODUCTION................

2-1 3 RESULTS...

3-1 4 ACKNOWLEDGEKENTS............

. 4-1 APPENDIX A: - BACKGROUND DOCUMEE.............. A-1 APPENDIX - B: SPECIAL FACILITIES............

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- LIST OF TABLES' Page Table 43-1 Time -Estimates-for the Evacuation of the General Population within 10 Miles of the

. 3-3 Station.

- Table.3-2

. Special Facilities with' Estimated Mobilization' Times of 60 Minutes or Greater.......... 3-6 Table ' A-l'-

. Designated Evacuation Routes............ A-7 Table A-2.

General Population Evscuation Times.

. A-13 Table A-3..

General Zone Characte

• ics........... A-17

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Table A Special_ Facilities - E

' Evacuation Travel Times.

............ A-26

... B-1 Table B-1 Special Facilities.

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FIGUREl2 1GENERILIZED SECTOR / EVACUATION MAP..

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-i FIGURZ : 2-2 ";;SPECIAL-FACILITIES ~;... '.,-..

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FIGURE 3-1 LESTIMATED SECTOR. EVACUATION TIMES....... -. -. 2-a w

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SECTION 1 l

SIEMARY L n response to a request from the U.S. Nuclear Re'gulatory Commission (NRC),

I the Commonwealth Edison Company, working with state and local emergency

- planners, has prepared an assessment by' sector and combination of these sectors, i.e., by zone,. of the time required to evacuate the area located within 10 miles of the Dresden Station, Morris, Illinois. This report is based'on emergency planning data available at this time and its findings are subject to revision af ter the local emergency plan has been fully

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I' developed. The present findings have been reviewed by state and local emergency planners.

Using a resident population estimate of 42,000 and an employed population of 2,200 for 1980, the best estimate evacuation times by zone are:

Best Estimate Total Evacuation 2jyyt Description Time (Hours) i Sector I.

0-2 miles north of the Illinois and 4

i Des Plaines Rivers

- Sector II 0-2 miles south of the Illinois and 6

Des Plaines Rivers Sectors I and The area between 2-5 mile radius and 5

III north'of the Des Plaines River and east of Ridge Road, plus Sector I Sectors. I and - The, area between the 2-5 mile radius 8

VII-from north of the Illinois River and west of Ridge' Road, plus Sector I 1.

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Best Estimate Total Evacuation Zone.

Description-Times (Hours)

Sectors?II The : area be tween 'the 2-5' mile radius 7'

. and ' IV -

- and from south of the-Des Plaines -

River and. north of. the Kankakee

. River..plus Sector'II Sectors II The area -be tween the 2-5 mile. radius

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.and V-

from south of the Des Plaines River and. east of Dresden ' Road, plus Sector II

-Sectors II.

Ihe area between the 2-5 mile radius 8

Jand VI-from south-~of the Illinois River and ve'st of Dresden Road, plus Sector II I ectors I, The area between.the 5-10 mile radius 6-S

.III, and VIII from north of the Des Plaines River and east of Ridge Road, plus Sectors I.

and III Sectors I, The1 area between the 5-10 m11e radius 6

VII, and XII from north of the Illinois-River'and west of. Ridge Road, plus Sectors I-and VII Sectors II, LThe area be tween the 5-10 mile radius.

7 IV,'and'IX

. from south of the Des' Plaines River and north of the-Kankakee River, plus Sectors II and IV

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Sectors II,'

1nte area between ' the 5-10 mile radius 8

sV, and X1

_ from south 'of the Kankakee River and

- east of Dresden Road, :plus Sectors II and V.

' Sectors II,

.The area be tween the 5-10. mile radius

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, VI,-and:XI from south'of the Illincia River and west of Dresden Road,,Aus Sectors II and II

In no'~1nstance does,the maximum evacuation time of a special facility

. exceed the best estimate of: general population evacuation for a zone.

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Weather conditions, particularly-winter weather. have the' potential for delaying!eva'cuation.- If evacuation _ routes:cannot be~kept adequately open p

- to ensure: prompt: and safe evacuation, consideration will ba siven to the E

. implementation of alternate protective s actions such as a recommendation to i

. remain indoors.'

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o' SECTION 2-INTRODUCTION In compliance with the NRC's November 29, 1979, 1etter* to all licensees authorized to operate a nuclear power reactor, this report presents an assessment by sector of estimated times for evacuating.the general popula-tion and identified special facilities such as hospitals, schools, nursing homes, etc., located within 10 miles of the Dresden Station near Morris, Illinois 1This preliminary report is based on emergency planning data available at this time. Its contents have been reviewed by local emergency planning officials.

6 The sectors identified in Figure 2-1 are in general conformity with the

'NRC's criteria as set forth in the November 29',1979 letter although natural boundaries such as the Illinois, Des Plaines, and Kankakee Rivers have resulted in.five sectors in the 2-5 mile and 5-10 mile areas.

Evacuation routes were identified for the 10 mile radius during a 1979 meeting with l

/ State and' Count; police officials. Agencies responsible for notification were also-identified as well as notification time estimates utilizing available resources.--Roadway characteristics-such as number of traffic lanes and' availability of shoulders were discussed in subsequent conversa-

. tions id.th State, ' County-and. local highway of ficials.

• Letter of Novenber. 29,'1979. from Brian K. Grimes, Director Emergency-Preparedness Task Group, Office of Nuclear-Reactor Regulation,~ United

States. Nuclear Regulatory. Commission, Nashington, DC-to All Power Reactor

Licensees.

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- Population estimates for 1980 and its ' distribution, i.e., population den-sity, were generally obtained from Commonwealth Edison Company and County officials.

In addition,-major local employers were contacted to determine R

the maximum number of employees which would have to be evacuated daring any given period, and to obtain estieites of: the time required to evacuate each

' facility.

The collected data were then used to assess by sector the area's get.eral evacuability in. teres of estimated evacuation times.

The results are considered conservative since total residential population as well as allowances for employees in the various sectors were used. ~ Thus, some double counting of a portion of the population has occurred.

~ Specifically, the following three methods of analysis were utilized to develop a range of estimated ' evacuation times by sector, and to confirm the

' capacity of the local roadway network available to handle the projected evacuation loads. A more detailed discussion of these methodologies and the results are contained in Appendix A - Background Document.

.1.-

Calculations of evacuation time utilizing the Houston Evacuation Model referenced in the prepared testimony of R.W. Houston on behalf of the NRC in-the matter of Northern States Power, Tyrone Energy Park, Unit 1, Eau Clair, Wisconsin, October 7,1976,

' Docket No. 50-484.

2.

Es'timation of.-evacuation - times utilizing - the Population Density versus Evacuation Time. curve referenced in " Evacuation Risk. An 1

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Evaluation,".USEPA Of fice of Radiation Programs, EPA-520/6-74-002;

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' Estimation of available highway capacity and traffic volume

-utilizing a refinement of.a method referenced in the prepared

. testimony.of James A. Martin, Jr. on behalf of the NRC in. the matter of Puget Sound and Light Company, Skagit Nuclear Power Plant, Units 1 and 2, Washington.

Estimates of mobilization times'for special facilities are based upon contacts made by Commora3alth Edison Company (CECO) personnel with the f

" identified special facilities shown on Figure 2-2 such as hospitals, schools, nursing l homes, etc. Travel time-required for personnel from the special facilities to leave 'thef evacuated 10 mile area is presented in Table A-4.

--Identified special-facilities are contained in Appendix B.

In analyzing -the data for determination of the time required for evacua-L tion, :the 'following assumptions have been made:-

l 1.

Evacuation of the outer NRC designated sectors assumes that the

' inner adjacent sectors are being evacuated simultaneously 1.e.,-

i within the 5 mile radius, evacuation of Sector III requires th*e simultaneous evacuation of the.180 Sector I; evacuation of-l Sector IV. requires the evacuation of Sector II, etc.. Within the

10 mile radius, evacuation of Sector VIII also requires the simultaneous *

.... ion of' Sector III and the'180" Sector I;-

evacuation of Sector XII requires the evacuation of -Sectors VII 2-4

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and I, etc. The sectors are aligned to coincide with municipal, geographic, and highway boundaries familiar to the public.

' 2.

Automoailes will be the predominant means of transportation with the exception of buses for school children, handicapped or other-wise nonambulatory citizens. An average of one automobile per dwelling unit is assumed for residential evacuation; an average of 0.8 automobiles per person is used for employee evacuation based upon conversations with local employers, and the general I

nature of work related travel vehicle occupancy.

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If schools are in session, school children will generally be evacuated directly out of the area to pre-designated schools

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_ where their parents'will be re-united with them.

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J messages will re-affirm to where the specific schools are being evacuated..

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Total population data used are the most readily available-informa-tion. This information, which includes both resident population and area employees, results in a high estimate of the total population to be evacuated due to probable " double counting" of some residents who live as well as: work in the area.

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Des'ignated' evacuation routes will remain open to traffic through measures'such as removal of snow and disabled vehicles, sanding,

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and traffic regulation (i.e. stop signs, signals, etc).

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Sufficient manpower and resources will be available to set up and enforce evacuation routes and to maintain guidance. At least one lane of each evacuation route will be designated only for buses I

-and other emergency vehicles.

8.

Some unavoidable time ~ delays will be incurred between the time of initial r.otification and accomplishment of evacuation. However, these delays will be minimized by advance planning which may include periodic mailers identifying by sector evacuation routes, evacuation centers, and other general evacuation information.

Based upon results uf similar evacuation studies, an average of l

20 minutes public preparation time, i.e.,-mobilization time, is allowed for the public to react to the evacuation notification.

I' 9.

Weather. conditions, particularly winter weather, have the poten-h?

.tial for delaying evacuation. However, the existing practice of L

iplowing early and often in.a snow storm, together with the appli-k

cation of sand and s' alt to icing roads, should allow continued mobility;during a snow stora evacuation. Existing practices i

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dealing'with other' severe storms. including.the clearance of i

' fallen trees and wires and-the provision ~of alternate routing

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'around washours, should also be adequate' to ensure mobility during severe weather. If evacuation routes'.cannot be kept.

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.o adequately open to ensure a prompt and safe evacuation, con-sideration will be given to the implementation of alternate protective actions such as a recommendation to remain indoors.

10..Not L11 evacuation routes identified by State and local officials have been considered in this analysis.

In general, only roadways that provide a sector direct egress beyond the 10 mile radius have been considered evacuation routes. Vehicles being evacuated

.from any zone will not enter into another zone within the same radius. Also, vehicles are not directed over any physical boundary (i.e., waterway) u'nless the vehicles are traveling on interstate highways. Evacuation routes and plans are discussed in more detail in Appendix ' A - Background Document.

11.

For a two-lane roadway, the capacity is estimated to be 1,000 vehicles per hour in the direction of flow.

Only one lane will be used with the other lane available 'for emergency and special vehicle use. For four lane divided facilities with limited access, two lanes in the direction of evacuation with'a total capacity of 1,500 vehicles per hour will.be used. This capacity level compensates Lfor vehicle merging at points of access. The above capacity values are within. generally accepted guidelines L-for highway capacity.*

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3-SECTION 3 RESULTS

-Estimated notification and evacuation-time ranges for the general popula-j tion during good weather conditions are shown by zone on Figure 3-1 and in

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Table 3-1.

However, these results are subject to revision af ter the final i

local emergency response plan has been developed.

Best weather condition estimates range from 1.2-6.6 hours6.944444e-5 days <br />0.00167 hours <br />9.920635e-6 weeks <br />2.283e-6 months <br /> for evacuation within the 2 mile radius; 1.4-14.3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> for the five mile radius; and 1.S-19.9 - hours for the 10 mile radius. The three methodologies used to estimate evacuation times produced results in the following order of magni-tude: lowest value - Method 2 utilizing the Population Density versus Evacuation Time curve; middle value - Method 3 utilizing a refinement of the Martin method; and highest value - Method I utilizing the Houston Evacuation Model. With no real criteria upon which to judge the results of

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these models, the middle value of the three evacuation-time estimates,

rounded to the nearest' hour, is shown in Table 3-1 as the best estimate.

No specific quantification of the impact of adverse weather conditions on the best. weather estimate is indicated because current emergency practices should allow suf ficient. continued mobility on the area's highways during severe weather conditions'to ensure a prompt and safe evacuation.

If

. evacuation routes cannot be kept adequately. open, however, consideration will be' given to the implementation of alternate protective actions, such

-as remaining indoors'.

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1 EVACU ATI O N -TI M ES

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DRESDEN STATION-

.G TIME ESTIMATES FOR EVACUATION OF THE-GENERAL POPUIATION WITHIN 10 MILES.

OF THE STATION.

ESTIMATED C00D WEATHER EVACUATION TIME; ESTIMATED NOTIFICA-RANGE OF ESTI-RANGE OF ESTIMATED TION TIME -IN EXCESS ESTIMATED-MATED EVACUATION-ESTIMATED TOTAL-BEST.

1980 EVACUATION OF 15 MINUTES ~

.. MORILIZATION TRAVEL TIME-EVACUATION

' ESTIMATE d

ZONE-POPUULTION (MINUTES)

• TIME (MINUTES)**

(HOURS) -

. TIME : (HOURS) ***

' (HOURS) ****

0-2 Miles

- Stetor I?

910'

'15-30 20 0.4-5.2 1.2 ' +. ~.

Sector II-

'1,560 15-30 20

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0-5 Miles S:ctors :I, III 5,560 15-30 20 1.0-8.7 1.8-9.5

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' Sectors I VII1,770 15-30 20 0.7-7.3 1.5-8.1.

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. Ssetors II, IV.. 2,820 30-45 20 0.3-13.2 1.4:-14.3

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. Sectors II,-V' 1,690

'30-45 20 0.3-10.6 1.4-11.7-8 9

. Ssctors II,'VI'.2,680~

15-30 20 0.8-11.0 1.6-11.8.

8 0-10 Miles

' Srctors I.

13,920 15-30 20-2.0-12.8 2.8-13.6 6

III.- VIII 1.

Based on meeting with State and County officials l

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. ' Estimated.20 minutes mobilization time based. on." Evacuation Analysis: Indian Point Site," New York State Office

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' *** of Disaster' Preparedness, New York State Department of Health, May 1978.

Range determined from Iowest and highest of' the three evacuation time estimates.

• • • • 1his; represents the middle value of the three evacuation time estimates recorded to the nearest hour.

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ESTIMATED 000D WEATHER EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATED NOTIFICA-RANGE OF ESTi-RANGE OF

. ESTIMATED TION TIME IN EXCESS -

ESTIMATED MATED EVACUATION ESTIMATED TOTAL BEST 1980 EVACUATION OF 15 MINUIES MOBILIZATION TRAVEL TIME EVACUATION.

ESTIMATE ZONE POPULATIONJ (MINUTES)

• TIME (MINUTES)**

(HOURS)

TIME (HOURS)*** -

(HOURS) * * * * '

0-10 Miles -

Szctors I,.

11,850 15-30 20 3.2-11.7 4.0-12.3 6*****

VII, XII 7

- Seetors II,.

10,690 30-45 20 1.2-18.8 l2.3-19.9

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- Snctors II, 4,380 30-45 20 0.7-10.8 1.8-11.8 8

- V. X:

S cters II, 7,920

'15-30, 20-1.1-17.0 1.9-17.8-8

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CL Based on meeting with State and County officials ce : Estimated 20 minutes' mobilization time based on " Evacuation Analysis: Indian Point Site," New York State Office

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of Disaster Preparedness,'New York State Department of Health, May 1978.

Range' determined from lowest and highest of the three evacuation time estimates.

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~.0 ado'"Ihis represents the middle.value of the three evacuation time estimates recorded to the nearest hour.

• • • o*The estimated total evacuation time resulting from use of the modified Martin Method, which is the "best estimate"-

value, is lower for Sectors I, VII, and XII combined than for Sectors I and VII combined due to the number of evacuation routes available in Sector XII.

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-In addition. - the. time required for confirmation of evacuation is not speci-fied because the methods to accomplish the confirmation have not yet been de termined. Furthermore, the consequences of the use of visible verifica-tion methods (i.e., occupants tying readily visible tags to doors as they leave, etc) have not been suf ficiently evaluated by local officials. Thus, a discussion of appropriate verification methods will be contained in the State and local Radiological Emergency Response Plans.

Estimated mobilization times as well as the names, addresses and capacities of those special facilities identified on Figure 2-2 which have identified mobilization times of 60 minutes or greater, are shown -in Table 3-2.

Evacuation of the special facilities from the 10-mile area can be accom-plished within a maximum of 0.5 hours5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br />, once the fac'ility is cleared and if sufficient vehicles are available and priority egress is allowed to mini-mize conflict with other vehicular traffic.

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TABLE 3-2 L

DRESDEN STATION SPECIAL FACILITIES WITH ESTIMATED MOBILIZATION TIMES

'0F 60 MINUTES OR CREATER SPECIAL FACILITY-l.

l MAP TOTAL ESTIMATED IDENTIFICATION-CAPACITY FACILITY MOBILIZATION.

SECTOR' COMMUNITY NUMBER (FIGURE 2-2)

NAME/ ADDRESS (PERSONS)

TIME OIOURS)*

VII Minooka 1

Minooka Community School 875 l'

District #11 P. O. Box 489 S. Wabena Road

.j-VIII Channahon 3

Illinois-Michigan Canal Max 2,000 per 1

State Park summer weekend Canal Street day; avg 300 IV -

Elwood' 4

Des Plaines Conservation 230.

1 Area Blodget Road IX Wilmington 6

Wilmington School 1,740 (4 schoola)-

2-3 District #209 South Joliet Street Wilmington.

7' Royal Willow Nursing 196 1

Care' Center 55 Kahler Road Wilmington 8'

Nazarene Nursery School

'28 1

303 South Kankakee I

Braidwood 9

Reed Custer liigh School 380 1

4 255 Comet Drive Noto's. "Ihe Map Identification Number identifies the particular facility on Figure 2-2.

• Time required to clear-the' facility and have transportation available, but not to leave the 10 mile area.

3-6

TABLE.3-2 (Cortd).

SPECIAL FACILITY NAP TOTAL ESTIMATED IDENTIFICATION CAPACITY FACILITY MOBILIZATION-SECTOR COMMUNITY' NUMBER (FIGURE 2-2)

NAME/ ADDRESS

'(PERSONS)

TIME (HOURS)*'

XI.

ICoal City-12:

- Coal City. School 1,627 (3 schools) 1 Route'113 XII' Morris

.16.

Morris Hospital 94

'2 150 W.'High Street

. Morris 22 Grundy County Home 143 1

-Quarry Street Box 669-

'Horris-23 Gebhard Woods State 400 in summer 1.5 Park P. o. Box 272 i

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• Time required to clear the facility and have transportation available, but not to leave the 10 mile area.

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i SECTION 4.

i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Commonwealth Edison wishes to thank the following State and local govern-mental. emergency planners for their. assistance with-the preparation and review-of this report.

t NAMES AND AFFILIATION

'. Edward Wagge Illinois Emergency Services and Disaster Agency (ESDA)

Joseph Talarico ESDA, Will Co.

Joseph Temple ESDA, Grundy Co.

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APPENDIX A 1

BACKGR0tmD DOCUMENT

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4 APPENDIX 'A BACKGROUND DOCUMENT Basis of - Analysis On November 19, 1979, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission sent a request to all power reactor licensees for information regarding time estimates for evacuation of various areas around nuclear reactors. This information is required so that the NRC can identify those areas in which unusual evacua-tion constraints exist which could require the consideration of special planning measures or facility modifications.

In addition, the information will enable the NRC to respond to a recent recommendation from the Environ-ment, Energy and Natural Resources Subcommittee of the House Committee on Government Operations.

The area for which the evacuation estimate is required includes the entire area within a 10 mile radius. about the Dresden Station. The estimates are discussed by zones defined as two 180 sectors in the O to 2 mile'tadius.,

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five sectors in the O to 5 mile radius,- and five sectors in the O to 10 mile radius. The estimated times for the outer 5 and 10 mile sectors assume

that the inner adjacent sectors are being evacuated simultaneously.

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The following information is required in response to the NRC letter:

1.

.Two est: sates 'are requested in each 'of the areas defined above for a genera 1' evacuation of the population -(not including special facilities).

Both.'a best weather estimate and an adverse weather estimate are

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required; for movement of the genera 1' population.

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2.-

The total time. required to evacuate special facilities (e.g., hospitals) within each area must be specified (best weather estimate and adverse weather).

3.

The time required for confirmation of evacuation should be discussed.

Confirmation methods may consider special instructions to the public (e.g., ' tying a handkerchief to a door or gate to indicate the occupant has left'the premises).

4.

Where plans and prompt notification systems have not been put in place for areas out to 10 miles, esti=ates of the times required to evacuate the plume exposure emergency planning zone (EPZ) until such measures aren in place should also be given. Notification times greater than 15 minutes should be included in the evacuation times and footnoted to indicate the notification time.

5.

Where special evacuation problems are identified (e.g.,

.n high popu-lation density areas), specify alternative protective actions such as sheltering which would reduce exposure, and the effectiveness of these measures.

6.

'A short background document should be submitted giving the methods used and the assumptions made to make the estimates, including identi-

' fication of the evacuation routes and methods of transportation used.

This. document should also note the agreement'or areas of disagreement Evith principal local officials regarding these estimates.

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Thus, the ob'jectives of this study are to determine the character 1=Lics of the area's' roadway system and its impact on evacuability within the is mile L radius of-the Dresden Station; to determine limiting factors for evacuating each sector via the designated evacuation routes; and to estimate evacua-

= tion times for each sector.

This study does not address the means to notify persons that they must leave. The State and local Radiological Emergency Response Plans will designate pre-determined evacuation procedures and responsibilities, in-cluding identification of evacuation centers and means of public notifica-tion such as the use of sirens, door to door notification, bu11 horns, tone l

activated radios, etc.

' The plans will. also include the basis for notifiestion, the responsible agencies, the methods of 24 hour2.777778e-4 days <br />0.00667 hours <br />3.968254e-5 weeks <br />9.132e-6 months <br /> communication, and a general description of the information that would be communicated. Consideration vill be given at that time to methods of verifying that the entire public sector has been notified. Methods to be considered may include the use of readily visible tags previously distributed to a household and to be tied to the door when the household has been evacuated.

Similarly, the use of handkerchiefs tied

.to the' doors, and. confirmation of notification by assigned personnel on a street by street basis may also be considered. -Ilowever, consideration should also be given to the consequences of visible verification methods, i.e. identification. of potential houses for looting.

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e Evacuation of Cencral Population There is no single recognized methodology to assess an area's evacuability.

There are, however, three approe.ches that have been used in certain instances to establish a range of evacuation time estimates.

The basic information which must be collected to assess an area's evacua-bility.using these methodologies is:

Population and employment distribution according to identified

-a.

zones; b.

Estimated notification times for the general population (including employees) as well as mobilization times for special facilities such as schools, hospitals, nursing homes, etc.

c.

The characteristics of principal evacuation routes (i.e., loca-

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tion -lanes, capacity);

General population and special facility information was gathered by CECO and local area personnel. Major local employers and special facilities were contacted to determine the maximum number of persons who would have to be evacuated during any given period, 'and. to obtain estimates of the time required to evacuate the ' individual site.

In addition to the Dresden Station, major employers in.the area' include Northern Petrochemical Company.

Mobil Oil Corporati::., A. P. Green Company, and'Reichhold Chemical' Company,

-Incorporated.- Since.some of these workers are also residents of the area,

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there has been some " double-counting" of the total number of people, but not necessarily the number of vehicles, to be evacuated.

In addition, no deductions are taken for the residents who leave the area l

for jobs, schools, or other reasons.

This methodology, however, should

, provide for the inestimable number of people who will be in the area for other reasons,-i.e., visitors, shoppers a J temporary inhabitants.

The total population to be evacuated was distributed within the designated sectors. The maximum number of persons to be evacuated from special facili-ties and the time required to' leave these facilities were also determined.

l An evacuation meeting and subsequent conversations were held with the State of Illinois and Grundy, Will, and Kendall County police officials to deter-aine agencies responsible for notification, to identify evacuation routes and their characteristics, to develop estimates of notification time, and to ensure that adequate personnel are available to carry out these tasks.

As'a result, numerous streets and highways within the 10 mile radius were identified by the officials as evacuation routes. These were taken into consideration in this analysis.

In addition, Ridge, Cemetary, Hansel, and Dresden. Roads were added to the evacuation network to provide direct egress from - the 0-2 mile radius zones.

Some local'-decisions have also influenced the designation of evacuation routes on a sector by sector. basis. -For instance, when possible, the L

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-e crossing of major bridges by evacuation traffic was avoided.

In addition, evacuation traffic from the Dresden area was not directed toward Joliet.

Taking.these considerations into account', the street and highway facilities shown in Table A-1 are designated as evacuation routes for the purposes of this analysis. Directional hourly vehicle capacity has been estimated to sbe 1,000 veh'icles for 2 lane'and 1,500 vehicles for 4 lane roadways.

The collected data were then evaluated using each of the following methodo-logies:

1.

Dr. R.W. Houston

• developed an evacuation model designed to estimate vehicular evacuation times as a function of azimuth aand distance about a potential source and based, in part, on information contained in " Evacuation Risks An Evaluation".** The model relates evacuation time in hours.(t ) t the population initially in the impact area E

(N,), the area of impact in square miles (A), and the number of roads leaving the area (L). The formula developed for this model is tE*

1.05Ao.27N,0 23jto.5, For the purposes of the analysis, time is measured from the initial warning to the population at large since the activities up to this

'* Houston Evacuation Model referenced 'in the prepared testimony of Mr. - R.

W. Houston on behalf of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) in the matter of Nothern States Power, Tyrone Energy Park, Unit 1, Eau Claire.

Wisconsin, October 7, -1976, Docket No. 50-484.

.** United States Environmental Protection ' Agency, Office of Radiation Programs,

' EPA-520/6-74-002 i

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o TABLE A--I DRESDEN STATION PRIICIPAL EVACUATION ROITIES Zone Facility Average 0-2 Miles Facility *-

No. of Lanes capacity (Veh/hr)

Sector I Ridge Road - N 2

1,000 U.S. 6 - W 2

1,000 Hansel Road - E 2

1,000 Sector II Arsenal Road - E 2

1,000 County Line Road - S 2

1,000 Dresden Road - S 2

1,000 0-5 Miles Sectors I, III Ridge Road - N 2

_000 U.S. 6 - E 2

1,000 I 55 - N 4

1,500 Sector I, VII Ridge Road - N 2

1,000 U.S. 6 - W 2

1,000 Minooka Road - W 2

1,000 Sectora II, IV Arsenal Road - E 2

1,000 I 55 - S 4

1,500 Sectors II V I 55 - S 4

1,500 '

Dresden Road - S 2

1,000 Sectors II, VI Dresden Road - S 2

1,000 Coal City Road - S 2

1,000 Pine Bluf f Road - W 2

1,000 CDirection of evacuation indicated after facility name.

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l-TABI.E A-1 (Cont'd) l Zone-l Facility Average l

0-10 M11ies Facility

• No. of Lanes-Capacity (Veh/hr)

Sector I, III.-VIII I 55 - N

~4 1,500' I 55 ' S 4-1,500-Ridge Road - N 2-1,000-U.S. 6 - E 2

1,000 Sectors I,'VIII, III Ridge ' Road - N 2

1,000 U.S.

. - W 2

1,000 I 80 - W 4

1,500-U.S. 6 - U 2-1,000 111. 47 - N 2

1,000 Ill. 47 S

2 1,000 Sectors II, IV, II Ill. 53'- N 4

1,500 Arsenal Road - E 2

1,000 Ill. 102 - S 2

1,000 Wilmington - Peaton Road 2

1,000 Sectors II V, X Custer Park Road -- S 2

1,000 Ill. 113 - E 2

1,000 Ill. S 2

1,000 U.S. 66 - S 2

1,000 Sectors II, VI II Ill. 47 - S.

2 1,000 Ill. 113 - W 2

1,000 Broadway - S 2

1,000 CDirsction of evacuation indicated after facility name.

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. point are subject to a substantial measure of control by those respon-sible-for emergency. preparedness, and because it is consistent with historica1' evacuation time information. Since historical evacuation time information includes warning times as well as evacuation times, initial warning is defined as.the beginning of the notification process and by definition coincides with the implementation of evacuation.

The results of this analysis include-the' time to notify the

-general public as well as the time to evacuate the general population from the impacted area. Parameters.are inserted into the model to represent the effect of time delay factors which act to prevent instan-l taneous realization of full evacuation route capacities. These para-l meters reflect delays due to the' spread of warnings, preparation for evacuation, waiting times to get out of parking lots and side streets, distances between vehicles, vehicle speeds, variations in speeds and driving habits, etc.-

The time delay parameter used in the model is based upon an analysis which shows a correlation between road miles per square mile of land.

area (r).and population density (p). This analysis resulted in a l

formula (r = 0.281 p *408) which, given the population density of an 0

area,-yields an estimate o'f a number of road miles per square mile of l

land area. Then, given the area of the evacuation region, the number

.of road miles in the area can~be estimated.

( A 'second formula '(L,,g= r,/2) can then be used to determine. the number of evacuation routes in the area 'if-they 'are not known. This

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1 second formula assumes that the average length of a road within the area A, is on the, order of the square root of A,, so the average number of roads within the area is approximately rA / A, and that 0

one-half of the average number of roads is available for use as evacua-tion routes.

It should be noted that roads counted as leaving an area do'not return to an area, and roads internal to an area are not counted for evacuation routes.

A plot of the results of this analysis for selected historical events

• shows that in high population density regions of about 15,000 persons per square mile or greater, delays appear to be relatively brief and evacuation times are more nearly controlled by roadway capacities.

For areas of lower population density, such as around the Dresden Station, evacuation times depend more on parameters other than roadway capacities. Taking these considerations into account yields the formula initially identified and used in this analysis.

(t =

3 l1.05Ao 27 y o 23fto s)

2. -

Method No. 2 utilizes a graph of the population density versus evacua-tion time relationship as the basis of evacuation time determination.

This graph is based upon questionnaires completed following actual evacuation incidents.

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Population densities surveyed by EPA'during development'of the graph l

ranged from approximately 15 persons /sq mi to 20,000 persons /sq mi.

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' *" Evacuation Risks

' An Evaluation", USEPA, Office of Radiation Program:.,

EPA-500/6-74-002

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e-Evacuation times ranged from approximately two hou'ts to eighteen hours

'and include warning time as'vell as the time required to evacuate the population.. Greater evacuation times appear to da required to evacuate less densely populated areas because of longer warning times resulting from:-

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' Increasing distances between persons; o

Need for more individual contacts; Longer. times required to prepara farms for a " shutdown;" and o

o The limited choice and direction of roads.

t This second method requires that the population density by square mile be determined. These data are then entered in the graph, and the estimated time to evacuate the area is read directly from the density-time relationship.

3.

The. third method estimates the ability to evacuate impacted areas based on the capacity of local evacuation routes and the number of vehicles being evacuated. This method determines whether the roads

'can accomodate the evacuating population.

La estimating the capacity of. each evacuation route, one lane of each facility is assumed.to remain evailable for emergency and other special 1

vehicles. The. vehicles being evacuated are assigned to the evacuation netw'rk based upon point of origin and the'most direct route of travel o

h to Seyond 'the 10 'aile radius.

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To estimate area evacuation times, the. hourly vehicular capacity of each roadway (Table A-1) is then compared to the maximum number of v shicles assigned to that facility.

Notif.ication times were estimated by using a formula contained in the

. Houston model to determine the road miles per square mile of land area on the basis of population density. Then, using a conservative average vehicu-lar speed of 6 niles per hour for assigned personnel to notify the public, the notification time required for each sector was estimated. This time-can-be significantly reduced if the number of notification vehicles is increased.

Table A-2 summarizes the zonal evacuation time estimates for the three methods employed. The estimated total evacuation times include notifica-tion, mobilization and travel time values. The "best estimate" for each Lsone represents the middle value of the three evacuation time estimates recorded to the nearest hour.

4 Special Facilities Mobilization times for special facilities are based upon direct contacts

~ with the. facilities rather than any of the above methodologies. The special facilities identified include:

.1.

-Hospitals;'

2.

Nursing Homes; i 'r b

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o TABLE A-2 DRESDEN STATION GENERAL POPULATION EVACUATION TIMES Estimated Notification Range of Range of.

Estimated No. of Time in Mobiliza-Estimated Estimated Total Popu-Notification Excess of tion Evacuation Total Evacua-Best lation To Be Vehicles 15 Min

• time **

Travel Times tion Time Estimate Zone-Evacuated Available*

(Hinutes)

(Minutes)

(Hours)

(Hou rs) * * * *

(Hours)****

0-2 Miles

- S:ctor I 910 14 15-30 20 0.4 - 5.2 1.2 - 6 4

Sector II 1.560 18 15-30 20 0.8 - 5.8 1.6 - 6.6 6

0-5 Miles Sectors I, 5,560 24 15-30 20 1.0 - 8.7 1.8 - 9.5 5

III S2ctors I, 1,770 27 15-30 20 0.7 - 7.3 1.5 - 8.1 8

' VII Sectors II, 2.820 27 30-45 20 0.3 - 13.2-1.4 - 14.3 7.

IV Sactors II, 1,690 24 30-45 20 0.3 - 10.6 1.4 - 11.7 8

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V S ctors II, 2,680 28 15-30 20 0.8 - 11.0 1.6 - 11.8 8

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' VI CBrsed on meeting with State and County of ficials t

ocBased on " Evacuation Analysis:

Indian Point Site," New York State Of fice of Disaster Preparedness. New York State Department of Health, May 1978.

• • cRange determined fran lowest and highest of the three evacuation time estimates.

• • • • This represents the middle value of the three evacuation time estimates recorded to the nearest hour.

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o ii TABLE A-2 (Cont'd) i Estimated [

Notification Range of Range of L

Estimated No. o f.

Time in Mobiliza-Es timated Es tima ted Total Popu-Notificatior.

Excess of tion Evacuation Total Evacua-: Bes t 1ation To Be Vehicles-15 Min

• time **

Travel Times tion Time Estimate

. Zone Evacuated Ava ilable*

(Minutes)

(Minutes)'

(Hours)

(Hou rs) * * * *

' (Hou rs) * ***

0-10 Miles '

Sectors I, 13,920 39 15-30 20 2.0 - 12.8 2.8 - 13.6 6

III, VIII

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S:ctors I.

11,850 38 15-30 20 3.2 - 11.7 4.0 - 12.5 6

VII, XII S ctors II, 10,690 47 30-45 20 1.2 - 18.8 2.3 - 19.9 7-IV, IX Se.: tors II, 4 ~,380 34 30-45 20 0.7 - 10.8 1.8 - 11.8 8

V, X S:ctors II, 7,920 48 15-30 20 1.1 - 17.0 1.9.- 17.8 8

V1, XI i

. tBased on meeting with State and County officials GCBesed on " Evacuation Analysis:. Indian Point SJ.te," New York State Office of Disaster Preparedness. New York State Department of Health, May 1978.

• • • Range determined from lowest and highest of the three evacuation time estimates. -

• • • • This represents the middle value of the three evacuation time estimates recorded to the nearest hour.

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3.

Schools (including vocational);

4.

Senior Citizen Centers; 5.

Recreation Areas; 6.

Day Care Centers; and 7.

Public Housing.

The following questions were asked of the identified special facilities within 10 miles of the Dresden Station *. The information is.for weekday /

daytime occurrence 3 Hospitals 1.

Number of in-patients 2.

Number of out-patients at a particular time of day 3.

Percent of in-patients that would be moved short of eminent disaster to facility 4.'

Percent of in-patients identified in Question 3 requiring special transportation (e.g., ambulance, wheelchair) 5.

Previous experience or time estimates for in-patient evacuation of building (e.g., firedrills) 6.

Available transportation (quantified) to take patients away from facility (e.g., staff autos, ambulances) 7.

Where. patients would be taken

• Commonwealth Edison made a reasonable effort to identify and contact all special facilities in the ~ area. However, we do not imply that we.were successful.in identifying all such facilities.

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n LNursing Homes Use question' 1,.3, 4, 5, 6,-7 from hospitals Schools }(Vocational, Private, Public) 1.

' Number of students

-2.-

NumberLof staff and student ' autos and buses available 3.

Special transportation needs of studer.ts 4.

Availability of special' transportation

5..

Previous evacuations or planning (e.g., fire drills, time to load buses af ter school)

Senior Citizen Centers 1.

Number of members present at a particular time 2.

Available Transportation 3.

Special transportation needs

-Recreation Areas

-1.

Number of persons at any. particular time 2.

Estimated-time for evacuation (based on estimates of weather related conditions)

Day Care See Schools l

l Public Housing I

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Number of -people at one time N mber of. vehicles parked-

2.

u Individual-Sector: Analysis i

- The" evacuation analysis of the ' sectors identified in the November 29, 1979-L NRC. letter 1s-discussed bclow on the basis of the O to 2 mile radius, the 0

.: to 5 mile radius, and 0 to 10 mile radius. The characteristics of the

--individual zones are contained.in Table ' A-3.

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TABLE'A-3' DRESDEN STATION.

CENERAL ZONE CHARACTERISTICS FOPULATION VEHICLES ZONE AREA RESIDENTS EMPLOYEES TOTAL TO BE DENSITY

' RESIDENT

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. REQUIRED (SQ MI)

EVACUATED-

-(PERSONS) OWNED :.

owned TOTAL PERSONS /

SQ. MI)

' VEHICLE 0-2 Miles Sector I 5.3 80

-830

-910 172 30 660 690 1.3 Sector II

-7.3 580 980 1,560 214 200 750-950 1.6 0-5' Miles.

.S ctors I, III-17.3 4.280

.1,280 5,560 321 1,430 960 2,390 2.3

' Sectors I,.VII 22.8 760 1,010 1,770 78 255 810 1,065 1.7 Sectors II - VI 20.1-1,840 980 2,820 140 615

~755 1,370 2.1 Sectors II,' V.

.16.1 710 980 1,690 105 240 755

--995 1.7 Sectors II. VI 22.1

'1,690-

990 2,680 121 570 750 1,320

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'I 0-10 Miles

. Srctors I, III, 50.9 12,340

~1,580 13,920 242 4,110 1,210 5,320.

2.6 VIII Sectors I,, VII,:

91.3 10,840 11,010 11,850 119 3,560 865 4,425 2.7 XII 65.9 9,410 l,280

.10,690 143 3,140 995 4,135 2.6 Sectors II, IV,

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Sectors II, V, 35.2 3,400 980 4.380 97 1,135 755 1,890 2.3 X

Sectors II, VI,

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'6,870 1,050 7,920 97 2,290 810 3,100 2.6 XI-2 A-17

0-Analys ts of the O to 2 mile Radiusi The O to '2 mile radius includes - the two 180 sectors north and south of-the Illinois and Des Plaines Rivers. The approximately five square mile Section I area contains.only about 80 residents; however, about 830 people are employed within the sector..It is estimated that 690' privately-owned vehicles are available'to-evacuate the. total resident and' employed population of 910 persons.

The designated north evacuation route from Sector I is Ridge Road.

The designated east /wert evacuation routes are Hansel Road and U.S. 6.

All three routes are two lane roadways. During an emergency, one lane will be maintained free from all but emergency vehicle traffic or possibly evacuation buses..Thus, it is estimated that each road will carry an average of 1,000 vehicles per hour. As a result, evacuation-

. of Sector I will take an estimated 1.2 to 6 -hours.

This includes time to notify and mobilize. the population. The best estimate of time is 4 hours4.62963e-5 days <br />0.00111 hours <br />6.613757e-6 weeks <br />1.522e-6 months <br />.

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The approximately 7 sq mile Sector II area contains 580 residents and L

-980 employees, the majority of whom are employed at the Dresden Station.

p It is estimated that 950 privately owned vehicles are available to l.

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evacuate the total resident and employed population of 1,560 persons.

' The designated l evacuation routes from Sector II are Dresden, Arsenal, and County Line Roads. 'A11'are two lane roadways'with an estimated

' capacity of 1,000 vehicles per hour.

It is estimated that Sector 11I j

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.. c can be; evacuated in'1.6-to 6.6 hours6.944444e-5 days <br />0.00167 hours <br />9.920635e-6 weeks <br />2.283e-6 months <br />, including notification and

mobilization time. ' Th,e best ' estimate of evacuation time is 6 hours6.944444e-5 days <br />0.00167 hours <br />9.920635e-6 weeks <br />2.283e-6 months <br />.

!There werelno. special facilities identifiedL in either Sector I or

' Sector II.

' Analysis of the O'to 5' Mile Radius The O to 5 mile radius contains into five' sectors, i.e., ' Sectors III,~

' IV, V, VI and VII, 'in addition to the 0-2' mile radius sectors.

Sector III consists of that. area within the 2 to 5 mile radius that is north of the Des Plaines River and east of Ridge Road. This 12 sq mile sector includes the communities of Minooka and Channahon.

The analysis assumes that Sector I will be evacuated with Sector III via Ridge Road, U.S. 6,;and I 55.

The estimated'eapacity of I 55 is 1,500 vehicles per. hour. But capacities of.the other two' facilities

-are 1,000 vehicles per hour.- The-5,560 residents and employees within the 17'sq mile zone can be evacuated in 1.8 to 9.5 hours5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br />, including

-the time it. takes to notify and mobilize the people.. The.best esti-mate of time is 5 hours5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br />.

Spec'ial concerns ~ for' evacuation from Sector III include the three schools of the Channahon School-District. No.17.

The 850 students in these ~ schools.would be bused 'out during an evacuation.

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sv Sector IV includes 'that area within the 2 to 5 mile radius that is.

. south ~of the - Des : Plaines River and ' north.of the Kankakee-River. The approximately 13 = sq mile sector is almost totally devoted to the

. Des Plaines Conservation. Area.

The analysis assumes that Sector;IV vill be evacuated with-Sector II

-by way of. Arsenal' Road and I 55. ' Arsenal Road has an average capacity of 1,000 vehicles per hour; Route I 55 has an average capacity of

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1,500 ; vehicles per hour.

The' evacuation of the 2,820 residents and employees within the zone containing Sectors II and IV via these two 1

road facilities would require 1.4 to 14.3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br />, including notifica-I tion and mobilization time. The best estimate of time is 7 hours8.101852e-5 days <br />0.00194 hours <br />1.157407e-5 weeks <br />2.6635e-6 months <br />.

Since there.is no concentration of resident population in Sectors II and IV, the area of: special concern during an evacuation would be the Des Plaines Conservation Area. The 230 people who might be using the conservation area at any one time could probably be evacuated La about i

(i an hour.

I l=

l Sector.V encompasses the 9 sq mile. area within.the' 2 to 5 mile radius I

that is south of the Des Plaines River and' east of Dresden Road.

.There' are no major concentrations of population in the sector. Tais analysis. assumes that SectoriV will be evacuated in conjunction with Sector 'II..

"The 1,690 residents and employees in Sectors--II' and V will be evacuated by way of I? SS. and Dresden-Road.. Route I' 55 is a four ' lane highway A-20 L ---

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'with an' estimated average capacity;of 1,500 vehicles per hour.. Dresden c Road has anc estimated average capacity of 1,000 vehicles ~ per hour.

Evacua' tion of the approximately 16 sq mile area of -Sectors II and V would require._1.4 to 11;7 hours8.101852e-5 days <br />0.00194 hours <br />1.157407e-5 weeks <br />2.6635e-6 months <br />,' including time to notify and mobilize the population. : The best estimate of l time is 8_ hours.

' Sector VI is that portion ~of the 2 to.5 mile radius-located south of the' Illinois River and west of Dresden Road.

It encompasses approxi-mately 15'sq' miles of area' including the Goose Lake Prairie State

-Park.

This analysis assumes that Sector VI will be evacuated with Sector II.

Sectors;II and VI will be evacuated by way of three two-lane roadways,

'i.e., Dresden Road, Coal City Road, and Pine Bluff Road. The average vehicular capacity of each roadway is -1.000 vehicles per hour.

About 1.6 to 11.8 hours9.259259e-5 days <br />0.00222 hours <br />1.322751e-5 weeks <br />3.044e-6 months <br /> would be required to notify, mobilize and evacuate the 22 sq mile area of Sectors II and VI 'in which about 2,680 people reside and work. - The best estimate of time for' the process is 8 hours9.259259e-5 days <br />0.00222 hours <br />1.322751e-5 weeks <br />3.044e-6 months <br />.

The ~ only, major area'which could warrant special concern during the evacuation-ils the Goose 1.ake PrairielState Park.

Its evacuation, however,'should'be completed within:a half. hour.

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SectorLVII'is the portion of the 2 to 5 mile radius that is north of the Illinois River and west of Ridge Road. Ihis approximately 17.5 sq t

l mile area will be evacuated in conjunction with Sector I along Ridge Road, U.S. - 6, and Minooka Road. All are two lane roadways with an average capacity of 1,000 vehicles per hour.

The almost 231sq mile area of Sectors I~ and VII containes about 1,770 residents and ~ employees. This two sector-zone could be evacuated in 1.5 to -8.1 hours1.157407e-5 days <br />2.777778e-4 hours <br />1.653439e-6 weeks <br />3.805e-7 months <br />. The best estimate of time is 8 hours9.259259e-5 days <br />0.00222 hours <br />1.322751e-5 weeks <br />3.044e-6 months <br />.

Analysis of the O to 10 Mile Radius The O to 10 mile radius contains five r,ectors, i.e.,

Sectors VIII, IX, X, XI, and XII, in addition to the cectors -within the 0-5 mile radius.

Sector VIII is located north of the Des Plaines River and east of Ridge Road. The approximately 34 sq mile area includes Shorewood and the southwestern corner of Joliet. The analysis assumes that Sector VIII will.be evacuated in conjunction with Sectors I and III.

I 55, Ridge Road, and U.S. 6, 'will be used in the evacuation. Approximately 13,920 persons live and work within the 51 sq mile area of Sectors I, III and VIII, and can be evacuated in 2.8 to 13.6 hours6.944444e-5 days <br />0.00167 hours <br />9.920635e-6 weeks <br />2.283e-6 months <br /> (including notification and mobilization time). The best estimate of required

. time is 6 hours6.944444e-5 days <br />0.00167 hours <br />9.920635e-6 weeks <br />2.283e-6 months <br />.

'.Special. concerns for evacuation in the Sectors I, III and VIII area.

include the previously mentioned three'public schools'of the Channahan i;

A-22 l

, s-: - -

' 'Mnb

'd1 4

(School' District No.17 as well as the Illinois Michigan Canal State

~

~

Park -;Channahan: State Park._

Sector IX, whic'h 3d11 be evacuated in' conjunction with ' Sectors II and

^

~

LIV, encompasses approximately 46'sq miles of area situated between the

! Des Plaines and Kankakee Rivers' Population in the sector is concen-

~

trated 'in -the communities of 'Wilmington and Elwood.

Arsenal Road,

~

Illinois 102,.and Wilmington-Peaton Road, 'and Illinois 53 will-be used 1to evacuate the approximately.10,690 residents and employees contained o

in the three-sector. area. ' About 2.3 to 19.9. hours will be required.to notify, mobilize and evacuate:the total population.

The best estimate of time, however, is 7 hours8.101852e-5 days <br />0.00194 hours <br />1.157407e-5 weeks <br />2.6635e-6 months <br />.' - Special concerns for evacuation which will be discussed in more detai1~ in a following section,- include the

'previously mentioned Des -Plaines Conservation Area in Sector IV, and five -public schools,' one nursery school, and one nursing home in Sector IX.

The 19. sq. mile Sector X, situated south of the Kankakee River and e'ast

-of' Dresden Road, 'willL be evacuated in conjunction with Sectors II and V by way lof the two lane Custer Park Road, Illinois Routes 113 and 53, iand'.U.S. 66.,

The notification, mobilization, and evacuation of the 14,380 residents and employees ' concentrated in.Braidwood could occur" in

- 5 8 to 11.8 hours9.259259e-5 days <br />0.00222 hours <br />1.322751e-5 weeks <br />3.044e-6 months <br />.. The best estimate of time is-8 hours.

Special-1

~

' concerns for evacuation:in the area are the four public schools. -

(Sector XI-is located south' of-.the Illinois River and west of Dresden Road.- Population-.within the~ sector's 49 sq mile : area is' concentrated t.

.A-23' E

h - '

../,-

- K 4-a br the. communities of Coal City and Carbon Hill.

Sector KI will be

' evacuated -in conjunction with Sectors II and VI.

The estimated 7,920 4 residents and employees. fr'om these sectors will utilize the two lane

~

~ Dresden Road, Illinois Routes g47 and 113, and Broadway during the

-evacuation. ~. Notification, mobilization and, evacuation time is esti-mated ' to be 1.9 to - 17.8 hours9.259259e-5 days <br />0.00222 hours <br />1.322751e-5 weeks <br />3.044e-6 months <br />. The_best estimate of time is 8 hours9.259259e-5 days <br />0.00222 hours <br />1.322751e-5 weeks <br />3.044e-6 months <br />.-

JInL addition' to Goose Lake Prairie State Park in Sector VI, other

~

special' concerns during the evacuation include,three public schools, a

~

private school, and a senior citizen center. -

The approximately _69, sq mile Sector XII is located north of the Illinois

' River and west of Ridge Road. The sector's population is concentrated in the City of Morris.

Evacuation of the sector will occur in conjunc-tion with Sectors I-and VII by way of Ridge Road, Illinois 47, U.S. 52, U.S. u6, end I 80.: ~ The average vehicle capacity of this network is

'1,0/5 vehicles per hour.- Evacuation of the zone's 11,850 residents

. and employees can be-accomplished in 4.0 to 12.5 hours5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br />. The.best estimate of time is.6 hours6.944444e-5 days <br />0.00167 hours <br />9.920635e-6 weeks <br />2.283e-6 months <br />. This time could be further reduced-if traffic traveling south of Illinois 47 is directed to cross the. Des Plaines River. Bowever,' the Illinois 47 bridge over' the river is a unarrow 'two-lane structure which could result in even further delays if a breakdown or accident were to occur'on the bridge during the evacuation.

I i

Special concerns during the evacuation of Sectors I, _VII, and XII includcEthe Minooka Community School District No.11 facilities in l.

Sector VII' and"six 'public. schools

.a < private school, two nursing

. homes,1a senior citizen center, a hospital, a youth center, and a s

state park in' Sector;XII.-

A-241

~

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~

' Evacuation'of Special Facilities:

The special-facilities identified within 10 miles of the Dresden Station are shown on Figurn.:2-2.

An ef fort was made to identify and contact all

'special-facilities'within the'10 mile area. However,-some facilities ~may

-[

have been overlooked.

The names,' addresses, type of facility, maximum-number of residents / students, number of staff / student automobiles available, and estimated mobilization time for each facility are contained in Appendix B.

The map. identification numbers shown are keyed to Figure 2-2.

Estimated facility mobilization times ranged from 5-10 minutes to as much as I hour.

Maximum evacuation travel time for.-the special facilities is shown in Table A-4 for'~each type 'of facility (i.e., schools, hospitals).

Generally, personnel from these facilities would be evacuated by high capacity' vehicles which would receive priority treatment during evacuation. The emergency

- lane provided on each evacuation route would be used by the vehicles tra'ns-porting special facility personnel. ' An average travel speed of 20 mph has been assumed. Maximum travel time in evacuating personnel from special facilities beyond the 14 mile. area should not exceed one-half hour.

l l Alter stive Actions t'

( Evacuation of' the1 population to minimize public' exposure to a passing

' radioactive material-cloud-is the protective action most discussed. However,-

there are other protective measures available which may. at the time ~ of the

~ A-25:

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3:

A

/

. TABLE A-4

-DRESDEN STATION

.SPECIAL FACILITIES - MIMUM EVACUATION TRAVEL TDIES -

e Estimated Evacuation Ti te -(hours)

Senior

. Radius /

' Hospitals Day Care ' Nursing Citizens Recreation

-Sector Schools 0.10 0.10-0-2' Miles ~

- 0. 30 -

0.20 0.10 0.10-

.- 5 Miles-0-l'O Miles

.0.40' O.30 0.20 0.10 0.10 0.60 Vehicle speeds are assumed to be 20 mph.

A-26:

4

,)-

f-

accident and in-consideration of such factors as weather conditions, roadway

conditions, duration and type of the accident, etc. be more appropriate.

' Generally,- the type of accident which occurs is the first consideration *.

If a low probability " melt-through" accident w'ere to occur, the relatively long release duration would generally result in officials recommending evacuation..However, if the weather and roadway conditions were such as to hamper the evacuation process in terms of time delays or public safety, sheltering people within their own homes or public shelters could substan-tially reduce whole body exposures, particularly in residential areas such as around the Dresden Station where most homes have basements. To maximize the benefits of sheltering, windows and doors of homes should also be

-closed and sealed, and ventilation systems turned off to minimize the f

i turnover rate of air within the building.

l

~ Calculations have shown that sheltering individuals can reduce the dose from inhaled radionuclides by up to 35 percent **.

Larger reductions can be achieved by the emergency sealing of openings in the structure such as taping windows, placing wet paper over cracks, etc.

• Examination of Of fsite Emergency-Protective Measures for Core Melt Accidents" D.C. ' Aldrich,' P.E. McCrath, D.M. Ericson, Jr., and R.B. Jones of Sandia Laboratories, _ Alburquerque, NM, and N.D. Rasmussen.. Department of Nuclear

~

Engineering, M.I.T.,

Cambridge, MA, as presented at the 'American Nuclear

- Society Topical Meeting on Probabalistic Analysis of Nuclear Reactor Safety, Mayl8-10, 1978.1

• • Public' Protection: ' Strategies 'in the Event of.a' Nuclear Reactor Accident:

Multicompartment Ventilation Model for Shelters," D.C. Aldrich, D.M. Ericson,

Jr.,_ Sandia Laboratories, January 1978.

A-27

9,.

' If there was an' atomospheric release of radioactive materials, doses to the public could occur by external radiation as the cloud passes, by exposure

' to -external radiation from radionuclides deposited on the ground and other surfaces, or by internal exposure due to the inhalation of radionuclides.

Levels in excess of accepted protective action guidelines would generally occur closer to the source so that the protective actions could be recom-sended on a two phased approach. The first phase would be to evacuate those individuals in these closer areas, i.e., within a 5 mile radius, while the second phase could be a recommendation to take shelter and insti-tute food, water, and milk control since the results of evacuation versus sheltering in'the 5 to 10 mile area are not as evident.

However, beyond 10 miles there is little apparent distinction between the effectiveness of evacuation and sheltering in terms of minimizing projected health effects.*

Other actions which may be used include removal of grazing animals from pasture; diversion of raw milk to milk products such as cheese, butter, ete; closing water intake valves from a contaminated water resource to prevent distribution of contaminated water; importation of uncontaminated food and water supplies; decontamination of contaminated materials and foodstuffs; and use of potassium. iodide as a prophylaxis to reduce the dose I

to the thyroid.

• Examination of Of fsite Emergency Protective Measures for Core Melt Accidents" D.C. Aldrich, P.E. McGrath, D.M. Ericson, Jr., and R.B. Jones of Sandia Laboratories, Alburquerque, NM, and N.D. Rasmussen, Department of Nuclear Engineering, M.I.T., Cambridge, MA, as presented at the American Nuclear Society Topical Meeting on Probabalistic Analysis of Nuclear Reactor Safety, May 8-10,.1978.

A-28

~

c op These ' represent'only;a few of the alternate courses of action which could

';be taken 1ri'a-radiolhgical emergency. The particular. actions chosen will, of-course, 'de' pend upon the Ltype 'and. severity of-the aceident as well as

~.such other parameters:as meteorological conditions,. time of day, etc.

s 9

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l-APPENDLX B

[

}

{-

SPECIAL FACILITIES l

n 1

7t-g ;.-

t I

1

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6 TABLE B -

f20' SPECIAL FACILITIES:

WITHIN 10 MILES OF THE DRESDEN STATION

.x NO. OF STAFF /

ESTIMATED:

MAP'

. MAX.-

. STUDENT FACILITY :

ID-RESIDENTS /-

VEHICLES-NOBILIZATIONL

! COMMUNITY

-NO.* ' SECTOR NAME OF-FACILITY ADDRESS STUDENTS AVAILABLE-TIME ** (MIN.).

jMinooks 2-1.

VII

.Minooka Community School-

' P. O. Box 489 875 Bus'es owned by 60 District-#11.(3 schools)

S. Wabena Road

' school district Chennshon:

2 ;III Channahon School District P. 0.. Box 208 850 Buses owned by

1. 17'(3 schools) school district-

Chrnnthon 2-3' VIII Illinois-Michigan Canal Canal Street Max. 2,000 60 State Park.Channahon summer weekend day; avg. 300

State Park per. week day

!Elwood 2-4

' IV Des Plaines Conservation Blodgett Road 230 60

. Area Elwood 2-5 IX

.Elwood Community Consoli-Chicago Avenue 370 3 owned buses 5-10 dated School lW11=ington.

2-6 IX Wilmington School District

-South Joliet Street 1,740 50% of students

1. 209 (4 schools) bused iW11cington 2 IX Royal Willow Nursing Care

- 55 tahler Road 196 Lund Bus Service 60 j

Center Wilmington 2-8 IX Nazarene Nursery School 303 South Kankakee 28 2 cars, 1 bus-60 Street Braidwood 2-9.

X Reed Custer High School 255 Comet Drive 380 6 owned buses 60 The first; number of'the Map Identification Number identifies the figure in Chapter.2;'the second number identifies the particular facility on the figure.

' ** Includes time to leave-facility and have vehicles available for departure.

• • • Time value may be undurcatimated becanne -of bun availability.

I n-1 l

\\

.W TAELE B-1 (CONT'D.)

NO. OF STAFF /

ESTIMATED MAP'

_ MAX.

STUDENT FACILITY' ID RESIDEffrS/

'VEllICLES MOBILIZATION-COMMUNITY NO.*

SECTOR NAME OF FACILITY ADDRESS STUDENTS AVAILABLE-TIME ** (MIN.)-

- Brdidwood '

2-10.

'X Braidwood Grade and Middle 162 South School 700 12/13 owned' LNA School buses-

!C ci City 2-11 XI.

Assumption School-South Kankakee Street 125 Broadway Ford,

'NA***

Bus Company

' Coni City 2-12

.XI Coal City'. School (3 schools) Route 113 1,627 Broadway Ford 60***

Bus Company Coni City 2-13:

XI Campbell-llouse Senior 580 South Broadway 70 Citizens Coose Lake

~2-14 VI Coose Lake Prairie State Goose Lake 330 max.

30

'Tcwn: hip 3' ark Township summer day;

90. avg. day Morris 2-15 XII' Morris Residential Center P. O. Box 28 30 10-15 staff.

10' (Youth Center) vehicles; l' bus; 1 9-pas-senger sta-tton wagon.

Morris 2 XII Morris llospital 150 West liigh 94 2 ambulances; 120 Street 100 vehicles during day Morris' 17

- XII Saratoga Consolidated School 4040 Division 350 10 owned buses 70-75 l.

District #60 Street NA - Not available The first number of the Map Identification Number identifies the figure in Chapter 2;.the second number identifies the particular facility on the figure.

• • Includes time to leave facility.and have vehicles available for departure.

Ae#Tinas. value mesy be un<lerren t ima te.1 heeniino of hun avn linhil ity.

15 - 2

. TABLE B-1 (CONT'D.).

L NO. OF STAFF /

ESTIMATED.

4

' MAP.

MAX.

STUDENT FACILITY a

'ID RESIDENTS /

VEHICLES HOBILIZATION-l COMMUNITY NO.*

SECTOR: NAME OF FACILITY ADDRESS STUDENTS AVAILABLE TIME ** (MIN.)

lMorrio^

2-18L XII Junior Acres Preschool' 1575 East Pine 50 2-3' staff 15 Bluff Road vehicles Morr'.s 2-19 XII Franklin School 519 Frank 11n 1,200 Variand' Bus Co. -

15-30***-

Street L

iMorrio~ -

2-20 ~

XII Immaculate Conception 505 East North 250 15 staf f 1***

School Street vehicles; Varland Bus Co.

Morris 2-21' XII' Center-School 720. Division Street 340 Variand Bus Co.

15-30***

iMorris 12-22 XII Crundy County Home Quarry Street 143 Varland Bus Co.

60***

. Morris' 2-23 XII.

-Gebhard Woods State Park

.P. O. Box 272 400~1n sutmer 90

Morris 2-24 XII' Morris Lincoln Nursing Home 916 Fremont 83 30

Horris 2-25 XII Morris Community High School 1000 Union Street' 900 Varland Bus Co.

30-40***

~

and Grundy Area Vocational School

Morris 2-26 XII Saratoga Towers (Senior 1700 Newton Place 112 10-15 vehicles 30 Citizen Center)

Joliet Junior College ****

1216 Houbolt Avenue 3,000 1,800 parking 45-60

Jalist 2-27 spaces; city bus transporta tion Tha first number of the Map Identifica~ tion Number identifies the figure in Chapter 2; the second number identifies the particular facility on the figure.

• • Includes time to leave facility and have vehicles available.for. departure.

• • • Time value may be underestimated because of bus, availability.

• • • cThese facilities are outside the 10 mile radius.

B-3

l

~

~

'e' TABLE B-1 (CONT'D.)

NO.-0F STAFF /. ESTIMATED J-MAP.

MAX.-

STUDENT'

. FACILITY'

.ID~

. RESIDENTS /-

c VEllICLES

- MOBILIZATION

' NO.* : SECTOR NAME OF FACILITY

. ADDRESS STUDENTS

-AVAILABLE TIME **4 (MIN.)

JCOMMUNITY

Caterpillar Tractor ****

Channahon, Road 3,500

.3,000 parked 10.-

Jalist 2.-

m Company vehicles Joliet' 2 -

' Jack and ' Jill Day ****.

2203 McDonough 50 I station wago'n,.

5-

-Nursery and Preschool I van, and 4 staff autos

.Jalist.

2 '

Joliet Terrace. Nursing ****

2230 McDonough 118-12 passenger vang.

60 liome

-5 staff autos

. Grace Day Care ****

Larkin Road and 25 3-5 staff autos 15 Jalist 2-31 Center

.Avalon Joliet Play' Day ****

352 Purdue Court; 21 2 staff autos 15

-Jalist 2-32 Care Center 1

Deerbrock Nursing Center **** 306 North Larkin 220

.15 passenger 120

' Jolie t'~

2-33 Avenue van; ?5; autos during. day I

e I-9

%e4 g

I i

j The.first number of.the Map' Identification Number identifies the figure in Chapter 2; the second number identifies the particular facility on the figure.

'** Includes time toileave fact 11ty and have vehicles available for departure.

c20~ Time value may be underestimated'because of bus availability.

' ****These facilities are outside the 10 mile radius.

i B-4 6

!