ML18003A483

Part 05 Emergency Plan (Rev. 1) - Part 5 - Emergency Plan - 5B - Supplemental Information - ETE Report

ML18003A483
Person / Time
Site:	Clinch River
Issue date:	12/15/2017
From:	James Shea Tennessee Valley Authority
To:	Office of New Reactors
Fetter A
References
TVACLINCHRIVERESP, TVACLINCHRIVERESP.SUBMISSION.4, CRN.P.PART05, CRN.P.PART05.1
Download: ML18003A483 (133)

Text

Tennessee Valley Authority Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B Emergency Plan (2-Mile EPZ)

Revision 1 Supplemental Information Evacuation Time Estimate Report Revision 0 September 2015

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate ABSTRACT The evacuation time estimate (ETE) detailed in this report is an analysis of the time required to evacuate the Plume Exposure Pathway Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) for the Clinch River Nuclear (CRN) Site. The CRN Site is a proposed Small Modular Reactor (SMR) project on 1200 acres of land adjacent to the Clinch River arm of the Watts Bar Reservoir, south of the U.S. Department of Energy Oak Ridge Reservation (DOE/OR), within the City of Oak Ridge, in Roane County, Tennessee. The CRN Emergency Plan considers the unique plant design and margins to safety afforded by a SMR design, while maintaining emergency preparedness at appropriate levels to protect the health and safety of the public. For the proposed CRN Site, the EPZ is an area encompassing an approximate 2 mile radius around the proposed reactor center point location. NUREG/CR-7002, Criteria for Development of Evacuation Time Estimate Studies (NUREG/CR-7002), provides guidance for the development of ETEs. The guidance provided in NUREG/CR-7002 can be used to demonstrate compliance with the ETE analysis development required by the NRC in Section IV of Appendix E to Title 10 of the Code of Federal Regulation (CFR) Part 50 (10 CFR 50) and serves as a template for the development of this ETE study. Typically, the ETE is used to inform protective action decision-making and may also be used to assist offsite authorities in development of traffic management plans to support an evacuation. For purposes of the CRN Site Early Site Permit Application (ESPA), the ETE also serves to satisfy the requirements of 10 CFR 52.17(b)(1), which states that the site safety analysis report identify physical characteristics of the proposed site, such as egress limitations from the area surrounding the site, that could pose a significant impediment to the development of emergency plans and if physical impediments are identified, the application must identify measures that would, when implemented, mitigate or eliminate the significant impediment..

Consistent with guidance, this ETE has been developed to provide the time to evacuate 90 percent and 100 percent of the total population of the EPZ. The 90 percent ETE provides the evacuation times that would typically be used to support protective action recommendations and decision-making.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................................... i TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................................................................................... ii EXECUTIVE

SUMMARY

............................................................................................................ vii ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ........................................................................................ xi PREFACE ................................................................................................................................... xii

1.0 INTRODUCTION

............................................................................................................... 1 1.1. Approach ....................................................................................................................... 7 1.2. Assumptions .................................................................................................................. 9 1.3. Scenario Development ................................................................................................ 11 1.4. Emergency Response Planning Areas........................................................................ 17 2.0 DEMAND ESTIMATION ................................................................................................. 18 2.1. Permanent Residents and Transient Population ......................................................... 18 2.2. Transit Dependent Permanent Residents ................................................................... 29 2.3. Special Facility Residents ........................................................................................... 32 2.4. Schools........................................................................................................................ 33 2.5. Other Demand Estimate Considerations ..................................................................... 33 2.6. Summary of Demand Estimation................................................................................. 40 3.0 ROADWAY CAPACITY .................................................................................................. 43 3.1. Roadway Characteristics............................................................................................. 43 3.2. Capacity Analysis ........................................................................................................ 49 3.3. Intersections Control ................................................................................................... 49 3.4. Adverse Weather......................................................................................................... 50 4.0 DEVELOPMENT OF EVACUTION TIMES ..................................................................... 52 4.1. Trip Generation Time .................................................................................................. 52 4.2. Evacuation Time Estimate Modeling ........................................................................... 71 4.3. Evacuation Time Estimates for the General Public ..................................................... 72 5.0 OTHER CONSIDERATIONS .......................................................................................... 75 5.1. Development of Traffic Control Plans.......................................................................... 75 5.2. Enhancements in Evacuation Time ............................................................................. 76 5.3. State and Local Review............................................................................................... 76 5.4. Reviews and Updates ................................................................................................. 77 5.5. Reception Centers and Congregate Care Centers ..................................................... 77 5.6. New Reactors .............................................................................................................. 77 5.7. Early Site Permits ........................................................................................................ 78 6.0 GLOSSARY .................................................................................................................... 79

7.0 REFERENCES

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate APPENDICES Appendix A Roadway Network Characteristics Appendix B Evacuation Time Estimate Review Criteria Checklist Appendix C Traffic Simulation Model Inputs and Outputs iii Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1 CRN Site Vicinity Map Figure 1.2 Location of Roadway Impact Scenario Figure 2.1 Permanent Resident Population by Sector Figure 2.2 Peak Transient Population by Sector Figure 2.3 Transient Facilities Location Map Figure 2.4 Population Estimates for the Shadow Evacuation Area Figure 2.5 Roadway Network in the Vicinity of the CRN Site Figure 2.6 Network Demand Validation Figure 3.1 Evacuation Network Map Figure 3.2 Evacuation Network Map - Grid I Figure 3.3 Evacuation Network Map - Grid II Figure 3.4 Evacuation Network Map - Grid III Figure 4.1 Flow Chart of Events and Activities Preceding the Evacuation Trip Figure 4.2 Trip Generation Distributions Comparison (Daytime)

Figure 4.3 Trip Generation Distributions Comparison (Nighttime)

Figure 4.4 Trip Generation Distributions Comparison (Weekend)

Figure C.1 Mobilization and Evacuation Curves Figure C.2 Time Lapse Simulation graphics iv Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate LIST OF TABLES Table 1.1 Evacuation Time Estimate Summary Information Table 1.2 General Assumptions Table 1.3 Evacuation Scenarios Table 2.1 Permanent Resident Population By Sector Table 2.2 Permanent Resident Population and Evacuating Vehicles Table 2.3 Peak Transient Population By Sector Table 2.4 Peak Transient Population and Evacuating Vehicles Table 2.5 Summary of Transient Facility Populations Table 2.6 Summary of Transit Dependent Residents Table 2.7 Major Employers in the EPZ Table 2.8 Total Population Considered for Each Scenario Table 2.9 Total Vehicles Considered for Each Scenario Table 3.1 Free Flow Speed by Functional Class Table 3.2 Speed Reductions in Inclement Weather Table 3.3 Weather Capacity Factors Table 4.1 Trip Generation Evacuation Events Table 4.2 Trip Generation Evacuation Activities Table 4.3 Notification Time Distribution Table 4.4 Prepare to Leave Work/Facility Time Distribution Table 4.5 Travel to Home/Residence Time Distribution Table 4.6 Prepare to Leave to Home/Residence Time Distribution Table 4.7 Trip Generation Distributions Description Table 4.8 Trip Generation Distributions (Daytime)

Table 4.9 Trip Generation Distributions (Nighttime)

Table 4.10 Trip Generation Distributions (Weekend)

Table 4.11 Evacuation of Transit Dependent Individuals Table 4.12 ETEs for Special Facility Populations Table 4.13 ETEs for Evacuation of the General Public (90% of the Affected Population)

Table 4.14 ETEs for Evacuation of the General Public (100% of the Affected Population)

Table A.1 Node Input File Table A.2 Link Input File v Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Table A.3 Intersection Control Type Counts Table A.4 Intersection Control Summaries Table A.5 Summary of Signalized Intersections Table B.1 Evacuation Time Estimate Review Criteria Checklist Table C.1 Loading Curves Table C.2 Data Input by Zone Table C.3 Destination Nodes and Capacities Table C.4 Exiting Number of Vehicles by Hour by Exiting Node Table C.5 Exiting Percentage of Vehicles by Hour by Exiting Node Table C.6 Network-Wide Travel Time (Minutes)

Table C.7 Total Vehicles Exiting the Network Table C.8 Average Speeds for Major Evacuation Routes (mph) vi Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate EXECUTIVE

SUMMARY

This report describes the analyses undertaken to develop evacuation time estimates (ETE) for the Clinch River Nuclear (CRN) Site, and the associated results. The Clinch River Property consists of 1200 acres adjacent to the Clinch River arm of the Watts Bar Reservoir, south of the U.S. Department of Energy Oak Ridge Reservation (DOE/OR), within the City of Oak Ridge, in Roane County, Tennessee that is proposed to be used as the location to construct and operate a Small Modular Reactor (SMR) project.

Part 5 of the Early Site Permit Application (ESPA) being submitted for the CRN Site includes two (2) Emergency Plans (Part 5A and Part 5B) for review by the NRC. Part 5A will address a site boundary plume exposure pathway Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) and Part 5B addresses a 2-Mile plume exposure pathway EPZ. The final EPZ size will be determined at the time the Combined License Application (COLA) is submitted. For purposes of the CRN Site ESPA, the ETE serves to satisfy the requirements of 10 CFR 52.17(b)(1), which states that the site safety analysis report identify physical characteristics of the proposed site, such as egress limitations from the area surrounding the site, that could pose a significant impediment to the development of emergency plans and if physical impediments are identified, the application must identify measures that would, when implemented, mitigate or eliminate the significant impediment. This ETE did not identify physical characteristics of the proposed site that could pose a significant impediment to the development of emergency plans.

In the event the site boundary EPZ is selected for the CRN Site, the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) has proposed an exemption from the requirements to perform an ETE and an update to this ETE will not be necessary.

The Clinch River Emergency Plan considers the unique plant design and margins to safety afforded by a SMR design, while maintaining emergency preparedness at appropriate levels to protect the health and safety of the public. The ETE are calculations of the time necessary to evacuate the Plume Exposure Pathway Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ), which is an area encompassing an approximate 2 mile radius around the proposed reactor center point location.

The exact size and configuration of the EPZ surrounding the CRN Site was developed in relation to local emergency response needs and capabilities as they are affected by such conditions as demography, topography, land characteristics, access routes and jurisdictional vii Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate boundaries. Of particular interest in the development of CRN Site plume exposure pathway EPZ is the overlapping emergency planning zone for the DOE/OR.

Section IV of Appendix E to Title 10 of the Code of Federal Regulation (CFR) Part 50 (10 CFR

50) requires that an analysis of the time required to evacuate be provided for various sectors and distances within the EPZ for transient and permanent residents. Consistent with Supplement 3, Guidance for Protective Action Strategies, of NUREG-0654/FEMA-REP-1, Rev.

1, Criteria for Preparation and Evaluation of Radiological Emergency Response Plans and Preparedness in Support of Nuclear Power Plants (NUREG-0654), the Protective Action Recommendation for an EPZ encompassing an area of approximately 2 miles surrounding the CRN Site would be consistent throughout the EPZ. Therefore, the use of various sectors and distances within the EPZ is not appropriate for the CRN Site and this ETE only considers an evacuation of the entire EPZ reflecting the effects of seasonal variations, day-of-the-week, and adverse weather conditions. Based on the data obtained from the 2010 U.S. Census, projected to 2015, there are 856 permanent residents within the EPZ of the proposed CRN Site.

The ETE is primarily used to inform protective action decision-making and may also be used to assist in development of traffic management plans to support an evacuation, if deemed necessary by offsite response organizations (OROs). The ETE is used as an information tool, and therefore, no minimum evacuation time must be achieved. The guidance in NUREG-0654 Evaluation Criterion J.10, provides additional information regarding the use of ETE results. ETE are used by OROs when making offsite protective action decisions. This report was prepared based on guidance provided in NUREG/CR-7002, Criteria for Development of Evacuation Time Estimate Studies (NUREG/CR-7002).

This report provides details on the process used for the development of ETEs for two population segments, including:

1. Permanent residents and transient population.

2. Transit dependent permanent residents.

There are no school populations located within the EPZ.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate This report also provides details on the development of the evacuation demand considered in the ETE, preparation activities associated with development of the ETE, and the use of traffic simulation modeling. Other considerations included in this ETE analysis include:

• A shadow evacuation extending to 15 miles from the CRN Site assumes that 20% of the public outside the boundary of the EPZ to a distance of 15 miles from the CRN Site would spontaneously evacuate.

• Lack of existing emergency preparedness programs and evacuation plans, including:

• The absence of existing registration programs for people with disabilities and those with access and functional needs who do not reside in special facilities.

• The absence of existing evacuation routes.

• The absence of existing traffic control plans.

• Verification of the future commitment of resources, such as buses and ambulances.

• Consideration of the evacuation tail.

• Future ETE updates related to a Combined License Application.

This report includes a discussion of INTEGRATION, the traffic simulation model used in performance of the ETE and a summary of the key inputs, assumptions, outputs, and computational process associated with the simulation. The INTEGRATION software is listed in the U.S. Department of Transportations (DOT) Evacuation Management Operations (EMO)

Modeling Assessment: Transportation Modeling Inventory, developed to support selection of an appropriate model for use in evacuation analyses (Reference 1).

NUREG/CR-7002 establishes the need to include a 20 percent shadow evacuation in the analysis. A shadow evacuation is defined as an evacuation of people from areas outside an officially declared evacuation zone. The shadow population is considered in this analysis to account for any effect of people from the EPZ boundary to 15 miles impeding the evacuation of those under evacuation orders. According to the 2010 U.S. Census data, projected to the year 2015, there are approximately 186,500 permanent residents within 15 miles of the proposed CRN Site.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate The EPZ is sparsely populated with no major commercial facilities. There are no schools, correctional facilities, licensed day care facilities, nursing home facilities or major retail facilities located in the EPZ.

To summarize the results of this ETE, Table 4.13 of this report depicts evacuation times for nine scenarios (the tenth scenario is for peak construction which is not considered) and provides evacuation times for 90% of the affected population. As shown in Table 4.13, the shortest evacuation time is 1 hour1.157407e-5 days <br />2.777778e-4 hours <br />1.653439e-6 weeks <br />3.805e-7 months <br /> and 40 minutes and the longest evacuation time is 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> and 17 minutes.

Similarly, Table 4.14 depicts evacuation times for 100% of the affected population. As shown in Table 4.14, the shortest evacuation time is 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> and 1 minute and the longest evacuation time is 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> and 52 minutes.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS AADT Annual Average Daily Traffic AASHTO American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials ACP Access Control Point ANS Alert and Notification System CFR Code of Federal Regulation COLA Combined License Application CRN Clinch River Nuclear DBE Design Basis Event DOE/OR U.S. Department of Energy Oak Ridge Reservation DOT Department of Transportation EAS Emergency Alert System EMO Evacuation Management Operations EPZ Plume Exposure Pathway Emergency Planning Zone ER Environmental Report ERPA Emergency Response Planning Area ESP Early Site Permit ESPA Early Site Permit Application ETE Evacuation Time Estimate FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency FHWA Federal Highway Administration GIS Geographic Information Systems HCM Highway Capacity Manual LOS Level of Service MOE Measures of Effectiveness O-D Origin-Destination ORO Offsite Response Organization SMR Small Modular Reactor TCP Traffic Control Point TEMA Tennessee Emergency Management Agency TVA Tennessee Valley Authority U.S. United States VTTI Virginia Tech Transportation Institute xi Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate PREFACE NUREG/CR-7002, Criteria for Development of Evacuation Time Estimate Studies (NUREG/CR-7002), provides guidance for the development of Evacuation Time Estimates (ETE). It also identifies the importance of using approved emergency response plans and existing traffic control information to reflect the expected response actions during an emergency.

This report describes the analyses undertaken to develop ETE for the populace located within the Plume Exposure Pathway Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) of the Clinch River Nuclear (CRN) Site, and the associated results.

Section 1 provides an introduction to the ETE, describes the characteristics of the EPZ, establishes general assumptions, and identifies the evacuation scenarios evaluated in this analysis. Section 2 provides details considered in developing demand estimates for permanent residents and transients, transit dependent populations, special facilities, schools, special events and quantifying a shadow evacuation. Section 3 describes the approach for evaluating the roadway capacity and establishes values for use in adverse weather calculations. Section 4 discusses the process for developing trip generation times and provides details on information included in traffic simulation modeling. Section 5 identifies other considerations including the need for development of a traffic control plan, potential enhancements to the ETE, and State and local review. Appendix A of the document provides characteristics for the roadways in the roadway network and Appendix B includes ETE review criteria contained in Appendix B of NUREG/CR-7002.

The ETE is primarily used by State and local governments to inform protective action decision-making and may also be used to assist in the future development of traffic management plans to support an evacuation, if deemed necessary by offsite response organizations. The ETE is used as an informational tool, and therefore, no minimum evacuation time must be achieved.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate

1.0 INTRODUCTION

The Clinch River Nuclear (CRN) Site is the location of a proposed Small Modular Reactor (SMR) nuclear power plant project adjacent to the Clinch River arm of the Watts Bar Reservoir, south of the U.S. Department of Energy Oak Ridge Reservation (DOE/OR), within the City of Oak Ridge, in Roane County, Tennessee. To account for the possibility of an emergency at the CRN Site, a hypothetical, unplanned release of radioactive materials is considered. This report describes the analyses undertaken to develop evacuation time estimates (ETE) for the populace located within the EPZ of the proposed nuclear power plant site, and the associated results.

The ETE analysis is an emergency planning tool that assesses, in an organized and systematic fashion, the feasibility of taking protective measures for the population in the area surrounding a nuclear power plant. For purposes of the CRN Site ESPA, the ETE serves to satisfy the requirements of 10 CFR 52.17(b)(1), which states that the site safety analysis report identify physical characteristics of the proposed site, such as egress limitations from the area surrounding the site, that could pose a significant impediment to the development of emergency plans and if physical impediments are identified, the application must identify measures that would, when implemented, mitigate or eliminate the significant impediment.

The ETE also provides a tool for offsite response organizations (OROs) to use in preplanning as well as protective action decision making should a radiological release requiring offsite protective action decisions occur. The ETE may also be used to assist in development of future traffic management plans to support an evacuation, as deemed appropriate by OROs. The ETE is used as a decision-making tool, and therefore, no minimum evacuation time must be achieved.

Section IV of Appendix E to Title 10 of the Code of Federal Regulation (CFR) Part 50 (10 CFR

50) requires that an analysis of the time required to evacuate be provided for various sectors and distances within the EPZ for transient and permanent residents. Consistent with Supplement 3, Guidance for Protective Action Strategies, of NUREG-0654/FEMA-REP-1, Rev.

1, Criteria for Preparation and Evaluation of Radiological Emergency Response Plans and Preparedness in Support of Nuclear Power Plants (NUREG-0654), the Protective Action Recommendation for an EPZ encompassing an area of approximately 2 miles surrounding the CRN Site is expected to be consistent throughout the EPZ. Therefore, the use of various sectors and distances within the EPZ is not appropriate for the CRN Site and this ETE only 1 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate considers an evacuation of the entire EPZ reflecting the effects of seasonal variations, day-of-the-week, and adverse weather conditions. This report was prepared considering the ETE guidance provided in NUREG/CR-7002, Criteria for Development of Evacuation Time Estimate Studies (NUREG/CR-7002).

Roane County is located in southeastern Tennessee, encompasses 395 square miles, and has a population of approximately 54,000 residents distributed between five incorporated municipalities and its unincorporated areas. Kingston, the County seat, is located approximately 7 miles west-southwest of the proposed CRN Site. The Clinch River surrounds the CRN Site to the east, south and west. The county boundary is closest to the CRN Site approximately 3 miles to the east of the CRN Site.

The CRN Site is a proposed SMR nuclear power plant site. The CRN Emergency Plan considers the unique plant design and margins to safety afforded by a SMR design, while maintaining emergency preparedness at appropriate levels to protect the health and safety of the public. For the proposed CRN Site, the EPZ is an area encompassing an approximate 2 mile radius around the proposed reactor center point location. The EPZ encompasses sparsely populated areas and a portion of the DOE/OR. No major employment areas of the DOE/OR lie within the EPZ.

According to the U.S. Census 2010 data, projected to the year 2015, there are 856 permanent residents within the EPZ of the CRN Site. According to the 2010 U.S. Census data, projected to the year 2015, there are approximately 186,500 permanent residents within 15 miles of the proposed CRN Site. The EPZ is sparsely populated with no major commercial facilities. There are no schools, correctional facilities, licensed day care facilities, nursing home facilities or major retail facilities located in the EPZ.

Interstate 40 (I-40), located in the southeastern portion of the EPZ, is the primary east-west traffic route in the vicinity of the proposed CRN Site. I-40 crosses the EPZ boundary approximately 2 miles east and 2 miles south-southwest of the proposed CRN Site. Tennessee State Route 58 (Highway 58), located in the northwestern portion of the EPZ, is the primary north-south traffic route in the vicinity of the proposed CRN Site. Highway 58 crosses the EPZ boundary approximately 2 miles west and 2 miles north-northwest of the proposed CRN Site.

Numerous local roads are found throughout the EPZ. Figure 1.1 illustrates the area surrounding 2 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate the proposed CRN Site and includes the roadway network, population centers, jurisdictional boundaries, and significant topographical features in the area.

Interstate 75 (I-75), although outside of the EPZ, is a major traffic route intersecting with I-40 approximately 7 miles east of the proposed CRN Site.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Figure 1.1 CRN Site Vicinity Map 4 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate The traffic simulation model INTEGRATION, used in performance of this ETE study, is a microscopic traffic assignment and simulation software that is well-suited for performance of ETEs for nuclear power plants. The INTEGRATION software calculates a number of Measures of Effectiveness (MOEs), which are addressed by NUREG/CR-7002 and it is listed in the U.S.

Department of Transportations (DOT) Evacuation Management Operations (EMO) Modeling Assessment: Transportation Modeling Inventory, (Reference 1) developed to support selection of an appropriate model for use in evacuation analyses.

INTEGRATION performs traffic simulations by tracking the movement of individual vehicles every 1/10 of a second. The INTEGRATION model computes a number of MOEs, including the network efficiency. This model has been validated against state-of-the-art delay estimation procedures using queuing theory and shockwave analysis and against standard traffic flow theory and has been utilized for the evaluation of real-life applications.

The key parameters gathered on the roadway segments include the length of roadway segment, the number of lanes on each segment, type of roadway intersection control (stop sign, yield sign, etc.), lane striping (left turn only, shared through and right turn, etc.), free-flow speed, base saturation flow rate, jam density, and speed-at-capacity. Additional details regarding the traffic simulation model utilized in this study are included in Section 4.2.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Table 1.1 Evacuation Time Estimate Summary Information ETE Element Current ETE*

Permanent Residents Total EPZ permanent resident population 856 Vehicle ratio (people / evacuating vehicle) 1.7 Evacuating vehicles per household 1.3 Transit Dependent Population Total transit dependent population 35 Number of buses 3 Number of ambulances 2 Transient Population Average transient population 99 Peak Transient population 197 Special Facilities Total population 52 Number of buses 0 Number of ambulances 0 Schools Not Applicable Total population -

Total capacity -

Number of buses -

Capacity (each bus) -

Shadow Evacuation Percent Estimated 20%

Special Event Not Applicable Population -

Location -

Duration -

Other Elements Adverse Weather Summer - Rain Winter - Snow/Ice Evacuation Model INTEGRATION Scenarios 10 Assumptions See Table 1.2

• A previous ETE has not been performed for the proposed CRN Site.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate 1.1. Approach A meeting regarding the development of the ETE was conducted at the Tennessee Emergency Management Agency (TEMA) in Knoxville, Tennessee on January 9, 2014 and was attended by representatives of state and local emergency management and law enforcement agencies, local elected officials and representatives from various state and local government agencies and private-sector support organizations. The purpose of the meeting was to present the process used for developing the ETE for the proposed CRN Site and outline associated data and information needs that would be used as inputs in the ETE analysis. The meeting included a detailed discussion of the ETE process including the methods used to collect data (roadway survey, telephone survey and data collection forms).

Following the meeting, a detailed field survey of the EPZ roadway network was conducted to validate existing mapping and to obtain characteristics of the primary roadways in the EPZ.

Roadway characteristics obtained during the field survey include:

• Number of lanes

• Lane width

• Intersection configuration

• Lane channelization and striping

• Geometrics (curves and lengths)

• Posted and actual speeds

• Abutting land use

• Traffic control devices

• Unusual characteristics The detailed field survey was video archived for reference purposes during subsequent development of the INTEGRATION model network.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate A random telephone survey of households within the EPZ and surrounding area to 10 miles from the CRN Site was conducted to interview a statistically representative sample of residents.

The telephone survey resulted in interviews with 604 households and was designed to obtain information related to household demographics and the commuting habits of residents. This information was used to identify factors affecting the evacuee trip generation time (mobilization time) as well as other data to be used in the ETE analyses, including average household size, vehicles per household, vehicle occupancy and an estimate of the number of transit-dependent residents. The mobilization time is the major component of the total ETE when the EPZ population density is low and there is minimal traffic congestion, as is the case for the CRN Site.

The telephone survey provides a statistical confidence interval of plus or minus 4% at the 95%

level of confidence and is a sound, documented basis for the trip generation times needed to develop the calculated ETEs.

NUREG/CR-7002 defines the transient population as tourists, shoppers, employees, etc., who do not reside within the EPZ and other people temporarily visiting the EPZ (Reference 4).

Hotel, motel, and campground occupancy rates peak during the summer months and during special events in the area. A survey of the transient facilities was conducted to obtain information regarding the number of transients and vehicles expected at these locations. The survey was designed to obtain information related to the number of units at each facility, average yearly occupancy, average number of persons per occupied unit and average number of vehicles per occupied unit. The survey was used to estimate peak attendance at transient facilities. There are no hotels/motels and 1 campground/RV park within the EPZ. This facility is addressed in greater detail in Section 2.1.2.

One special facility, the Kingston Academy, currently exists within the EPZ. The Kingston Academy is a Psychiatric Residential Treatment Facility with living quarters and a capacity of 52 children between the ages of 5 and 17. The facility provides residential treatment and day treatment services. Special facilities are addressed in Section 2.3.

Data related to major employers (more than 50 total employees) provided in the CRN Site Early Site Permit Application (ESPA) Environmental Report (ER) was evaluated for use in development of this ETE. Major employers within the EPZ are addressed in Section 2.5.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate There are no schools, correctional facilities, licensed day care facilities, nursing home facilities or major commercial or retail facilities located in the EPZ.

1.2. Assumptions According to NUREG/CR-7002, the planning basis for the ETE includes the assumption that a rapidly escalating emergency is underway, an evacuation is ordered promptly by emergency management officials and no early protective actions have been implemented (Reference 4).

A 2-mile EPZ is evaluated in this ETE analysis and is included among the regulatory exemptions requested in the CRN Site ESPA.

Development of potential exemptions for SMRs is based on various design and analysis considerations. Specifically, the SMR licensing basis events (or Design Basis Events, DBEs) are expected to have small and delayed source term releases that will result in predicted on-and off-site radiation doses significantly lower than those considered in the bases for existing nuclear power plant emergency planning requirements. For Beyond DBEs, analyses would need to conclude that the slow progression rate of postulated severe event scenarios provides sufficient time to initiate appropriate mitigating actions to protect the health and safety of the public.

The following table, Table 1.2, General Assumptions, provides assumptions that the NRC included in NUREG/CR-7002 and additional assumptions considered in development of the ETE, as appropriate for the CRN Site. The telephone survey discussed in Section 2.2 of this report provides information on vehicle usage. Those assumptions that are used exclusively within individual sections of this report are addressed and discussed in the applicable section.

Assumptions used, beyond those explicitly accepted by NRC in published guidance, are supported by available technical reports, telephone survey data, documented communications, and other sources. Scenario-specific assumptions are addressed in section 1.3 of this report.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Table 1.2 General Assumptions The ETE is measured from the time that the advisory to evacuate is issued to 1 the public within the EPZ (e.g., initial emergency alert system (EAS) broadcast.

Mobilization of the public begins after initial notification and includes all 2 preparation activities (time for commuters to leave work, time for commuters to travel home, time to prepare the house) 3 Evacuation time ends when the last vehicle has exited the EPZ.

Background traffic is on the roadway when initial notification occurs and stops 4 entering the EPZ upon establishment of Access Control Points at 90 minutes following the advisory to evacuate.

A 50% capacity is appropriate for buses used in the evacuation of the transit 5

dependent population.

Shadow evacuation of 20% of the public occurs from the outside boundary of 6

the EPZ to a distance of 15 miles from the CRN Site.

7 Permanent residents will evacuate using local roads.

All daytime scenarios assume 90% of the commuters are at work. All evening 8 scenarios assume 10% of the commuters are at work. All weekend scenarios assume 10% of the commuters are at work.

Telephone survey results indicate the following:

• The average household contains 2.2 persons.

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• The average household has 2.2 vehicles.

• 1.3 vehicles/household would be used during an evacuation 10 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate 1.3. Scenario Development As suggested in NUREG/CR-7002, the evacuation scenarios presented in Table 1.3, below, were modeled to reflect the effects of seasonal variations, day-of-the-week, adverse weather, special events, roadway impacts and the peak construction workforce at the proposed CRN site on the ETE (Reference 4). These scenarios were developed to identify combinations of variables and events to provide ETE under varying conditions to support protective action decisions and to provide a range of potential evacuation situations dependent on site-specific considerations.

Table 1.3 Evacuation Scenarios Scenario Season Day Time Weather 1 Summer Midweek Daytime Normal 2 Summer Midweek Daytime Adverse*

3 Summer Weekend Daytime Normal 4 Summer Midweek and Evening Normal Weekend 5 Winter Midweek Daytime Normal 6 Winter Midweek Daytime Adverse*

7 Winter Weekend Daytime Normal 8 Winter Midweek and Evening Normal Weekend 9 Roadway Midweek Daytime Normal Impact 10 Peak Midweek Daytime Normal Construction

• See Table 3.1 A description of each scenario used in the study is provided below.

Scenario # 1 - Summer Midweek Daytime (Normal Weather): This scenario represents a typical normal weather daytime period when permanent residents are generally dispersed within the EPZ performing daily activities and major work places are at typical daytime levels. This scenario includes assumptions that schools are closed and hotel and motel facilities are occupied at peak levels. The scenario assumes that 1/4 of the transients are in the EPZ for a single night and 3/4 are staying multiple nights. It is further assumed that 1/4 of the multiple 11 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate night transients remain in hotel rooms and/or campgrounds during the day and 3/4 are participating in recreational activities within the EPZ. It is further assumed that 1/2 of the 3/4 (3/8 of total transient population within the EPZ) will return to their lodging facilities to retrieve belongings.

Scenario # 2 - Summer Midweek Daytime (Adverse Weather): This scenario represents an adverse weather daytime period when permanent residents are generally dispersed within the EPZ performing daily activities and major work places are at typical daytime levels. This scenario includes assumptions that permanent residents will evacuate from their place of residence; schools are closed and hotel and motel facilities are occupied at peak levels. The scenario assumes that 1/4 of the transients are in the EPZ for a single night and 3/4 are staying multiple nights. Due to adverse weather, it is assumed that 1/2 of multiple night transients remain in hotel rooms and/or campgrounds and 1/2 are participating in recreational activities within the EPZ. Of the 1/2 that are participating in recreational activities within the EPZ, it is assumed that 1/2 (1/4 of total transient population within the EPZ) will return to their lodging facilities to retrieve belongings.

Scenario # 3 - Summer Weekend Daytime (Normal Weather): This scenario represents a typical normal weather weekend period when permanent residents are both at home and dispersed within the EPZ performing typical summer weekend activities. This scenario includes assumptions that permanent residents will evacuate from their place of residence; schools are closed and students are at home or with their families; work places are staffed at typical weekend levels and hotel and motel facilities are occupied at peak summer weekend levels.

The scenario assumes that 1/4 of the transients are in the EPZ for a single night and 3/4 are staying multiple nights. It is further assumed that 1/4 of the multiple night transients remain in hotel rooms and/or campgrounds during the day and 3/4 are participating in recreational activities within the EPZ. It is further assumed that 1/2 of the 3/4 (3/8 of total transient population within the EPZ) will return to their lodging facilities to retrieve belongings.

Scenario # 4 - Summer Midweek and Weekend Evening (Normal Weather): This scenario represents a typical normal weather midweek and weekend evening period when permanent residents are generally at home with fewer dispersed within the EPZ performing evening activities. This scenario includes assumptions that permanent residents will evacuate from their place of residence; schools are closed and students are at home; work places are staffed at 12 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate typical evening levels; hotel and motel facilities are occupied at peak summer levels and all transients are at their lodging facilities.

Scenario # 5 - Winter Midweek Daytime (Normal Weather): This scenario represents a typical normal weather weekday period during the winter when school is in session, permanent residents are generally dispersed within the EPZ performing daily activities and major work places are at typical daytime levels. This scenario includes assumptions that students will evacuate directly from the schools and hotel and motel facilities are occupied at 50% of the peak summertime levels. The scenario assumes that 1/4 of the transients are in the EPZ for a single night and 3/4 are staying multiple nights. It is further assumed that 1/4 of the multiple night transients remain in hotel rooms and/or campgrounds during the day and 3/4 are participating in recreational activities within the EPZ. It is further assumed that 1/2 of the 3/4 (3/8 of total transient population within the EPZ) will return to their lodging facilities to retrieve belongings.

Scenario # 6 - Winter Midweek Daytime (Adverse Weather): This scenario represents an adverse weather weekday period during the winter when school is in session, permanent residents are generally dispersed within the EPZ performing daily activities and major work places are at typical daytime levels. This scenario includes assumptions that students will evacuate directly from the schools; work places are fully staffed at typical daytime levels and hotel and motel facilities are occupied at average levels. The scenario assumes that 1/4 of the transients are in the EPZ for a single night and 3/4 are staying multiple nights. Due to adverse weather, it is assumed that 1/2 of multiple night transients remain in hotel rooms and/or campgrounds and 1/2 are participating in recreational activities within the EPZ. Of the 1/2 that are participating in recreational activities within the EPZ, it is assumed that 1/2 (1/4 of total transient population within the EPZ) will return to their lodging facilities to retrieve belongings.

Scenario # 7 - Winter Weekend Daytime (Normal Weather): This scenario reflects a typical normal weather winter weekend period when permanent residents are both at home and dispersed within the EPZ. This scenario includes assumptions that schools are closed and students are at home; work places are staffed at typical weekend levels; and hotel and motel facilities are occupied at average weekend levels. The scenario assumes that 1/4 of the transients are in the EPZ for a single night and 3/4 are staying multiple nights. It is further assumed that 1/4 of the multiple night transients remain in hotel rooms and/or campgrounds 13 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate during the day and 3/4 are participating in recreational activities within the EPZ. It is further assumed that 1/2 of the 3/4 (3/8 of total transient population within the EPZ) will return to their lodging facilities to retrieve belongings.

Scenario # 8 - Winter Midweek and Weekend Evening (Normal Weather): This scenario reflects a typical normal weather midweek and weekend evening period when permanent residents are home and the work force is at a nighttime level. This scenario includes assumptions that schools are closed and students are at home; work places are staffed at typical nighttime levels; and hotel and motel facilities are occupied at average winter levels and all transients are at their lodging facilities.

Scenario # 9 - Roadway Impact Summer Midweek Daytime (Normal Weather): The intent of this scenario is to represent a variety of conditions that may impact a roadway segment such as construction, flooding, vehicle accidents, etc. The roadway impact scenario assumes that during a summer midweek normal weather daytime scenario, one section of an eastbound lane of I-40 is shut down near the EPZ boundary, resulting in a reduction in capacity. All assumptions included in Scenario #1 are included in this scenario. This analysis is conducted to understand the potential impact of such an event and to support the development of a traffic control plan by identifying areas where OROs may want to consider additional emergency planning such as the pre-positioning of response vehicles (e.g., tow trucks). The ETE for this scenario is not typically used in protective action recommendations or decision-making.

Figure 1.2 illustrates the location of the roadway impact scenario.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Figure 1.2 Location of Roadway Impact Scenario 15 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Scenario # 10 - Peak Construction Midweek Daytime (Normal): This scenario represents a typical normal weather midweek daytime period when the peak number of construction workers are on-site and permanent residents are generally dispersed within the EPZ performing daily activities and major work places are at typical daytime levels. Up to 2,700 construction workers would be required during the peak phase of construction activities for a Small Modular Reactor plant at the Site. Peak plant staff is expected to be 500 employees. Construction workers and plant staff are expected to commute because there are no provisions for housing at the Site. A site plan detailing road access to the Site has not been finalized. Therefore, it was assumed that driveway access to and from the Site would be along Bear Creek Road. This scenario includes assumptions that schools are closed and hotel and motel facilities are occupied at peak levels. Assumptions related to the transient population are identical to Scenario #1. The existing roadway system was used for this scenario and no roadway improvements were considered. According to the census data in the area, the overall permanent population increasing rate from 2015 to 2024 is estimated to be 2.64%. Permanent resident and shadow populations were extrapolated to 2024 for this scenario.

1.3.1. Staged and Keyhole Evacuation NUREG/CR-7002 addresses the use of staged and traditional keyhole evacuations when making protective action decisions. Evacuation research has shown that implementation of a staged evacuation can be more beneficial to the public health and safety than the traditional keyhole evacuation (Reference 2). However, NUREG/CR-7002 was developed considering an EPZ size of an approximately 10-mile radius, where the benefits of a staged and traditional keyhole evacuations may be realized, given site-specific characteristics.

In a typical (NUREG/CR-7002) staged evacuation, evacuation times for the 0-2 mile and the 2-5 mile portions of a 10-mile EPZ are calculated separately to support a staged evacuation protective action decision (i.e., evacuation of the 0-2 mile zone, followed by subsequent evacuation of the 2-5 mile zone). Because this ETE analysis for the CRN Site considers an EPZ encompassing an approximate 2 mile radius around the proposed reactor center point location, staged and traditional keyhole evacuations are not appropriate for the CRN Site and have not been considered in this analysis. Instead, this analysis considers an evacuation of the entire EPZ for each evacuation scenario. Based on the data obtained from the 2010 U.S.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Census, projected to 2015, there are 856 permanent residents within the EPZ of the proposed CRN site.

1.4. Emergency Response Planning Areas As described in NUREG/CR-7002, conduct of the ETE typically requires consideration of discreet planning areas within the EPZ, referred to as Emergency Response Planning Areas (ERPAs) (Reference 4). ERPAs are defined as local areas within the EPZ for which emergency response information is provided. The establishment of ERPAs within an EPZ enables protective action recommendations and decisions to be made at the ERPA level. With a 2-mile EPZ, during an emergency at the CRN Site, protective actions will be implemented consistently throughout the EPZ. For this reason, development of ERPA within the EPZ are not necessary and ERPA are not considered in this analysis. Based on the characteristics of the EPZ for the proposed CRN Site, ETEs were developed for the complete evacuation of the entire EPZ for each evacuation scenario considered.

The permanent resident and transient populations for the EPZ are discussed in Section 2 of this report.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate 2.0 DEMAND ESTIMATION This section of the ETE report details the process for developing an estimate of the number of people to be evacuated from the EPZ. The demand estimation includes permanent residents, transients, individuals with special needs, and any other members of the public in the EPZ at the time an evacuation is ordered. The potential exists for counting individuals in more than one of these groups (i.e., EPZ resident may also be counted as an employee or transient). To avoid double-counting permanent residents, and as a result, overestimating the number of evacuating vehicles, the percent of permanent residents of the EPZ assumed to be at parks, shopping, places of employment or other locations within the EPZ is identified in appropriate sections of this ETE report. Demographic data obtained from the U.S. Census 2010 (projected to 2015), a random telephone survey of permanent residents in the EPZ and surrounding area, and assumptions detailed throughout this ETE report, have been used to estimate the number of people and vehicles considered in the ETE. Demand estimates for the following population groups have been considered separately and account for all of the public in the EPZ:

• Permanent Residents and Transient Population (with access to a vehicle during an evacuation).

• Transit Dependent Permanent Residents (without access to a vehicle or dependent on help from outside the home to evacuate).

• Special Facility Residents (Residents of or those confined to nursing homes, jails, assisted living centers, hospitals, etc.).

• Schools (Public and private educational facilities).

Estimates of the population and number of evacuating vehicles for each of these population groups have been developed separately and are described in the following sections.

2.1. Permanent Residents and Transient Population The permanent resident population has been estimated using Census block data obtained from the U.S. Census 2010 and is projected to 2015 for this analysis. To determine the permanent resident population, the block data was loaded directly into geographic information systems (GIS) software and the permanent resident population and number of households were 18 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate calculated based on polar coordinate representation (population rose). The EPZ permanent residents, by sector, is presented in Table 2.1. Table 2.1 includes residents in the 2 to EPZ Boundary to reflect those areas where the EPZ extends irregularly beyond a 2-mile radius. The EPZ permanent resident population, the number of households and the number of evacuating vehicles are presented in Table 2.2. The permanent resident population is illustrated by sector in Figure 2.1.

Table 2.1 Permanent Resident Population By Sector Distance Direction 2015 Population 1 N 0 1 NNE 0 1 NE 5 1 ENE 8 1 E 8 1 ESE 6 1 SE 8 1 SSE 7 1 S 13 1 SSW 13 1 SW 13 1 WSW 15 1 W 17 1 WNW 21 1 NW 19 1 NNW 0 2 N 0 2 NNE 0 2 NE 0 2 ENE 8 2 E 13 2 ESE 38 2 SE 41 19 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Distance Direction 2015 Population 2 SSE 58 2 S 28 2 SSW 30 2 SW 50 2 WSW 66 2 W 105 2 WNW 87 2 NW 24 2 NNW 1 2 to EPZ Boundary N 0 2 to EPZ Boundary NNE 0 2 to EPZ Boundary NE 0 2 to EPZ Boundary ENE 1 2 to EPZ Boundary E 4 2 to EPZ Boundary ESE 21 2 to EPZ Boundary SE 26 2 to EPZ Boundary SSE 9 2 to EPZ Boundary S 0 2 to EPZ Boundary SSW 3 2 to EPZ Boundary SW 4 2 to EPZ Boundary WSW 21 2 to EPZ Boundary W 57 2 to EPZ Boundary WNW 8 2 to EPZ Boundary NW 0 2 to EPZ Boundary NNW 0 TOTAL 856 20 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Table 2.2 Permanent Resident Population and Evacuating Vehicles EPZ Population Households* Evacuating Vehicles*

856 389 506

• Estimated assuming 2.2 persons per household and 1.3 evacuating vehicles per household as determined by the random telephone survey of households within the EPZ and surrounding area. This results in an estimate of 1.7 people per evacuating vehicle.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Figure 2.1 Permanent Resident Population by Sector 22 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate The transient population is defined as those people temporarily visiting the area and includes tourists, shoppers and employees who work in the EPZ but do not reside in the EPZ.

Estimates of the size of the transient population were obtained and used to determine the associated number of evacuating vehicles. A listing of transient population facilities and special event data was obtained through a combination of internet research and questionnaires, and interviews with facility representatives. Data gathering surveys focused on acquiring the number of hotel/motel rooms and campsites at each transient facility within the EPZ; the typical number of guests in each hotel/motel room and campsite and the average number of vehicles per hotel/motel room/campsite. The number of transients at these facilities was estimated based on the information obtained.

The average EPZ household size of 2.2 persons per household was applied to the transient population to determine the number of transient units. Transients are assumed to evacuate at the same value as the EPZ population, 1.7 people per evacuating vehicle. Section 2.1.2 provides estimates of the peak transient population presented by facility type. The peak transient population is illustrated by sector in Figure 2.2.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Table 2.3 Peak Transient Population By Sector Distance Direction 2015 Population 1 N 0 1 NNE 0 1 NE 0 1 ENE 0 1 E 0 1 ESE 0 1 SE 0 1 SSE 0 1 S 197 1 SSW 0 1 SW 0 1 WSW 0 1 W 0 1 WNW 0 1 NW 0 1 NNW 0 2 N 0 2 NNE 0 2 NE 0 2 ENE 0 2 E 0 2 ESE 0 2 SE 0 2 SSE 0 2 S 0 2 SSW 0 2 SW 0 2 WSW 0 2 W 0 2 WNW 0 24 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Distance Direction 2015 Population 2 NW 0 2 NNW 0 2 to EPZ Boundary N 0 2 to EPZ Boundary NNE 0 2 to EPZ Boundary NE 0 2 to EPZ Boundary ENE 0 2 to EPZ Boundary E 0 2 to EPZ Boundary ESE 0 2 to EPZ Boundary SE 0 2 to EPZ Boundary SSE 0 2 to EPZ Boundary S 0 2 to EPZ Boundary SSW 0 2 to EPZ Boundary SW 0 2 to EPZ Boundary WSW 0 2 to EPZ Boundary W 0 2 to EPZ Boundary WNW 0 2 to EPZ Boundary NW 0 2 to EPZ Boundary NNW 0 TOTAL 197 Table 2.4 Peak Transient Population and Evacuating Vehicles Transient Population Evacuating Vehicles*

197 116

• Estimated assuming 1.7 persons per evacuating vehicle as determined by the random telephone survey of households within the EPZ and surrounding area.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Figure 2.2 Peak Transient Population by Sector 26 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate 2.1.1. Permanent Residents with Vehicles The estimated number of evacuating vehicles per household (1.3) was adapted from the results of the random telephone survey of the households in the EPZ and surrounding area. These data, along with the estimated number of households in the EPZ were used to calculate the number of evacuating vehicles provided in Table 2.1 in the following manner:

EV = Evacuating Vehicles HH = Household Evacuating Vehicles = HH x EV HH As an example, Evacuating Vehicles:

= 389 x 1.3 HH

= 506 Evacuating Vehicles The actual need for permanent resident vehicles is thereby less than the given estimate.

However, the estimate of permanent resident vehicles is not reduced to account for schoolchildren outside of the EPZ at the time of an evacuation.

2.1.2. Transient Population Transient population groups are defined as those people who are not permanent residents and who enter the EPZ for a specific purpose (camping, recreation, etc.). Transients may spend less than one day in the EPZ or they may stay overnight or longer at camping facilities, hotels and motels. The only transient facility in the EPZ identified during development of the ETE is a campground located approximately one mile south of the CRN Site. Based on information obtained from the facilitys website, the facility has approximately 90 campsites. This facility is discussed in greater detail below.

Hotels and Motels There are no hotels or motels that have been identified within the EPZ.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Campgrounds There is 1 campground/RV park within the EPZ. Soaring Eagle Campground is located approximately 1 mile south of the proposed CRN Site with approximately 90 campsites/RV parking spots. Figure 2.3 illustrates the location of the campground.

Figure 2.3 Transient Facilities Location Map This facility is assumed to be at capacity during the summer scenarios, including during the Smokin the Water 4th of July Celebration discussed in Section 2.5.1. Assuming 2.2 people per 28 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate campsite (equivalent to the EPZ persons per household), the peak attendance at the campground is estimated as 197 people evacuating in 116 vehicles (assuming 1.7 persons per evacuating vehicle). Based on the small permanent resident population within the EPZ and the relatively small transient population associated with this single facility, the impact of double counting any permanent EPZ residents that may be at this facility is minimal. Therefore, no permanent EPZ residents are assumed to be at this facility. A summary of the transient facility population is included in Table 2.5.

Table 2.5 Summary of Transient Facility Populations Distance Direction (miles)

Facility Municipality Campsites Population Vehicles (from CRN Site)

Soaring Eagle 1 South Lenoir City 90 197 116 Campground 2.2. Transit Dependent Permanent Residents Transit-dependent permanent residents are those residents within the EPZ who do not have access to a vehicle or are dependent on help from outside the home to evacuate.

Schoolchildren would typically be included as a segment of the transit dependent permanent resident population. However, as described in Section 2.4, there are no schools located within the EPZ. The estimated number of transit-dependent permanent residents was adapted from the results of the random telephone survey of the households in the EPZ and surrounding area.

In addition to households that do not own a vehicle, consideration was also given to those households with 1 or 2 vehicles identified by the telephone survey. Calculations related to households with 0, 1 or 2 vehicles available during an evacuation are described below.

0-Vehicle Households The telephone survey indicated that 2% of the households in the EPZ do not own a vehicle. As indicated in Table 2.2, there are an estimated 389 households located in the EPZ; resulting in approximately 8 households without access to a vehicle during an evacuation. The telephone survey also indicates that of those households with no vehicles available for evacuation, the average household size is 1.2 people per household. This translates to approximately 10 29 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate people (8 x 1.2) in 0-vehicle households that would not have access to a vehicle during an evacuation, assuming all households residents are home at the time an evacuation is ordered.

1-Vehicle Households The results of the telephone survey indicate that approximately 21.8% of the households in the EPZ have 1 vehicle. The telephone survey also indicated that 42% of households in the EPZ have a commuter and 26.4% of commuters would not return home prior to evacuating. The telephone survey also indicates that of those households with 1 vehicle available for evacuation, the average household size is 1.48 people per household. This results in approximately 10 households (389 X 0.218 x 0.42 x 0.264) or 5 people (10 x (1.48 - 1)) (considering the commuter is away with the vehicle) in 1-vehicle households would not have access to a vehicle during an evacuation.

2-Vehicle Households The results of the telephone survey indicate that approximately 43.8% of the households in the EPZ have 2 vehicles. The telephone survey also indicated that 42% of households in the EPZ have a commuter and 26.4% of commuters would not return home prior to evacuating. The telephone survey also indicates that of those households with 2 vehicles available for evacuation, the average household size is 2.18 people per household. This results in approximately 2 households (389 X 0.438 x (0.42 x 0.264)2) or 1 person (2 x (2.18 - 2))

(considering both commuters are away with both vehicles) in 2-vehicle households would not have access to a vehicle during an evacuation.

3 or More-Vehicle Households The telephone survey indicates that of those households with 3 or more vehicles available for evacuation, the average household size is 2.58 people per household. Because the average household size is less than the number of vehicles available to the household, it is assumed that households with 3 or more vehicles will always have a vehicle available at home for evacuation during an emergency.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Transit-Dependent Ridesharing As discussed in NUREG/CR-7002, it is recognized that a portion of the transit-dependent population will rideshare during an evacuation, leaving the area with friends, neighbors, or relatives, and it is acceptable to assume that up to 50 percent of residents without vehicles will rideshare (Reference 4). This value is based on results of a national telephone survey conducted of EPZ residents (Reference 2) which indicate more than 50 percent of residents would offer a ride to individuals waiting for transportation. Empirical data obtained from the widely studied Mississauga, Canada evacuation in 1979 (Reference 3) also supports a value of 50 percent. Roane County emergency management officials agreed that a value of 50 percent was acceptable for this study. As a result, it is estimated that 9 people in 0-, 1-, and 2-vehicle households will require transit assistance during an evacuation. The number of transit-dependent permanent residents in 0, 1, and 2-vehicle households in the EPZ is summarized in Table 2.6.

Homebound Special Needs Population A subset of transit dependent residents includes people with disabilities and those with access and functional needs that live independent of a special facility. During development of the ETE, attempts were made to obtain data from Roane County to determine the demand for transit resources to accommodate homebound special needs individuals. Information on households with residents dependent on specialized transportation, such as wheelchair vans or ambulances, could not be provided by Roane County. However, as described in NUREG/CR-7002, a recent telephone survey of residents living within EPZs in the U.S. found that 6% of respondents said they, or someone in their household, would need assistance to evacuate (Reference 4). NUREG/CR-7002 cited NUREG/CR-6953, Vol. II, SAND2007-4195P, Review of NUREG-0654, Supplement 3, Criteria for Protective Action Recommendations for Severe Accidents - Focus Groups and Telephone Survey, October 2008 (Reference 2), as the source of this information. Because of the absence of information related to households with residents dependent on specialized transportation, it is assumed that 85% of special needs individuals requiring transportation are ambulatory and capable of being transported via buses. It is further assumed that 10% of special needs individuals requiring transportation are wheelchair bound, not capable of walking short distances, and require transportation via wheelchair bus and 5% of special needs individuals requiring transportation are bedridden and require transportation via 31 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate ambulance. It is further assumed that there are no more than 1 special needs individuals per household.

Based on the total permanent resident population of 856 within the EPZ of the CRN Site, it is estimated that approximately 24 households in the EPZ would house a special needs individual requiring assistance during an evacuation. Based on the assumptions above that 85% of special needs individuals are ambulatory (21 persons) 10% are wheelchair bound (3 persons) and 5% are bedridden (2 persons) it is estimated that a total of 26 homebound special needs individuals will be evacuated. Because the locations of these individuals is unknown, it is estimated that 2 buses will service those individuals that are ambulatory. Additionally, 1 wheelchair bus will service the wheelchair bound individuals and 2 ambulances will service the bedridden individuals. The number of transit-dependent permanent residents in a special needs situation is summarized in Table 2.6.

2.3. Special Facility Residents Special facility residents are those who reside in special facilities and are dependent upon facility personnel or emergency medical services vehicles for transportation in an emergency.

This includes, but is not limited to, institutions such as hospitals, nursing homes, and correctional facilities. The presence of special facilities was researched during development of the ETE and it was determined that one facility, the Kingston Academy, currently exists within the EPZ.

The Kingston Academy is a Psychiatric Residential Treatment Facility with living quarters and a capacity of 52 children between the ages of 5 and 17. The facility provides residential treatment and day treatment services. For this ETE, it is assumed the facility is at 90% capacity when an evacuation is ordered and the facility is ready to evacuate 75 minutes (60 minutes to prepare +

15 minutes to load vehicles) after the order to evacuate is issued. This results in an evacuation of approximately 47 residents from this facility. Because of the type of facility, it is assumed that all residents of the Kingston Academy are ambulatory. The number of transit-dependent residents in special facilities is summarized in Table 2.6.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Table 2.6 Summary of Transit Dependent Residents Population Requiring Facility/Situation Evacuating Vehicles Evacuation Permanent Residents Without Access to Vehicle Buses 0-Vehicle Households 5 1-Vehicle Households 3 1 2-Vehicle Households 1 Homebound Special Needs Population (Including all members Various of household)

Ambulatory Patients 21 2 Buses Wheelchair Bound 3 1 Wheelchair Bus Bedridden 2 2 Ambulances Special Facility Residents Various Kingston Academy 47 3 facility vans 3 buses 1 wheelchair bus Total 82 2 ambulances 3 facility vans 2.4. Schools The presence of schools was researched during development of the ETE and it was determined that no schools currently exist within the EPZ.

2.5. Other Demand Estimate Considerations Demand estimates have also been considered for EPZ employees; a peak transients population during a special event just outside the EPZ; a shadow evacuation of 20% of the permanent resident population outside of the EPZ extending to 15 miles from the proposed CRN Site; and for background and pass through traffic within the EPZ. A summary of the shadow evacuation population and vehicles are included in Tables 2.8 and 2.9.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Employees In addition to the demand estimates for permanent resident and transient populations described above, demand estimates were also considered for people who work in the EPZ. There are two categories of people who work in the EPZ:

1. Those who live and work in the EPZ.

2. Those who live outside the EPZ and commute to jobs within the EPZ.

Those of the first category are already counted as part of the permanent resident population and previously accounted for in the demand estimate. In order to estimate the number of people who live outside the EPZ and commute to jobs within the EPZ, the presence of major employers in the vicinity of the CRN Site (50 or more employees) was researched during development of the ESPA ER and was evaluated for use in development of this ETE report. It was determined that two major employers exist within the EPZ. Information on the major employers is included in Table 2.7.

Table 2.7 Major Employers in the EPZ Distance Facility Employees Evacuating Direction Location Employees (miles) Name per Vehicle Vehicles*

Kingston 0.95 SW Kingston 150 1 36 Academy 0.75 WSW Duratek Kingston 300 1 71 Total 107

• Assume 90% of employees are at work when the order to evacuate is issued and 26.4% of employees evacuate directly from their place of employment (based on the results of the telephone survey). The remainder of the employees return home and are included in the permanent resident EPZ population.

2.5.1. Special Events Special events within an EPZ and can attract large numbers of transients for short periods of time. Special events could include Fourth of July celebrations, holiday parades, professional and amateur sporting events, or any number of activities that bring large populations into the 34 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate EPZ. These events frequently define the peak tourist population that is to be included in the ETE study (Reference 5).

Kingston, Tennessee hosts the Smokin the Water 4th of July Celebration (http://www.kingstonparks.com/Fourth%20of%20July%20-%20Smokin%20the%20Water.htm) each year with activities centered on the Kingston waterfront at Watts Bar Lake, approximately 10 miles west of the CRN Site and 8 miles outside the EPZ. The event is typically a one-day event, and features a floating parade, drag boat and raft races, children's activities, a classic car show, commercial and craft vendors and fireworks. It is assumed that this event will result in peak tourist populations at transient facilities within the EPZ. This peak tourist population is considered in the Scenario #4 described in Section 1.3. Based on the small permanent resident population in the EPZ, it is assumed that all permanent residents remain in the EPZ during this event and no reduction in permanent resident population is considered.

2.5.2. Shadow Evacuation A shadow evacuation is defined as an evacuation of people from areas outside an officially declared evacuation zone. The shadow population is considered in this analysis because the additional traffic generated has the potential to impede the evacuation of those in the EPZ under evacuation orders. Shadow evacuations were considered in developing the demand estimation because of the additional traffic typically generated during an evacuation and its potential to affect the ETE. Consistent with NRC guidance, a shadow evacuation of 20% of the permanent resident population was assumed to occur in areas outside of the EPZ for all cases extending to 15 miles from the CRN Site. Shadow population was determined based on U.S. Census 2010 data, projected to 2015. As noted in Table 1.2, the area outside the EPZ is assumed to have a shadow evacuation of 20% of the permanent resident population.

According to the Census data, projected to 2015, there are 186,500 permanent residents living within 15 miles of the CRN Site. It is assumed that the trip generation times for the shadow evacuation onto the roadway network is consistent with the trip generation times for the permanent resident population within the EPZ.

Figure 2.4 illustrates the permanent resident population by sector, at 1-mile increments from the EPZ boundary to 15 miles from the CRN Site.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Figure 2.4 Population Estimates for the Shadow Evacuation Area 2.5.3. Background and Pass-Through Traffic Background and pass-through traffic will exist within the EPZ at the time an order to evacuate is issued. Background traffic is that traffic on the roadways when the initial notification to evacuate occurs and consists of both permanent residents and transients. Pass-through traffic includes 36 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate vehicles that enter the EPZ roadway network and exit the EPZ prior to the establishment of Access Control Points (ACPs).

QUEENSOD, software developed by Virginia Tech Transportation Institute (VTTI), was used to estimate the background and pass-through traffic. Because origin-destination (O-D) demand data is not readily available and difficult to obtain unless a large scale O-D survey is conducted, a method is needed to estimate demand by readily available data, such as traffic count data.

QUEENSOD is a model for estimating origin-destination traffic demands based on observed link traffic flows, observed link turning movement counts, link travel times and, potentially, additional information on drivers route choices. QUEENSOD iteratively minimizes errors between observed link volumes to estimated link flow using Least Relative Error model and generates an O-D matrix.

Pass-through traffic, used as input data in the ETE simulations, was determined based on the latest published traffic statistics, provided by the Tennessee Department of Transportation (http://www.tdot.state.tn.us/traffichistory). Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) on road sections of the State Highways and Local Federal-Aid roads are included on each of the major roadways within the EPZ. The count station, or specific location on a roadway where traffic count surveys are conducted, and the roadway network in the vicinity of the CRN Site are shown in Figure 2.3.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Figure 2.5 Roadway Network in the Vicinity of the CRN Site 38 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate To validate the results of QUEENSOD, the output of the QUEENSOD, the O-D matrix, is used in INTEGRATION as input demand file. The simulation is then run and the link traffic counts are recorded and calibrated against the observed traffic count data. The figure below shows the relationship between the observed link volumes versus the simulation volume. As evidenced by the following figure, the results from QUEENSOD accurately replicate the known network demands. The coefficient of determination R2 (a statistical measure of how close the data are to the fitted regression line) is very close to 1.

Figure 2.6 Network Demand Validation The background and pass-through traffic volume is estimated, and the calibration verified, for each scenario with consideration given to the effects of seasonal variations, day-of-the-week, adverse weather and other factors.

It is assumed that ACPs would be staffed within approximately 90 minutes of the advisory to evacuate. Activation of ACPs prior to 90 minutes could delay commuters returning from areas outside of the EPZ. Therefore, for purposes of this analysis, it is assumed that ACPs will be 39 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate established at 90 minutes following the advisory to evacuate. It is also assumed that no vehicles will enter the EPZ after ACPs have been established. The establishment of ACPs at 90 minutes following the advisory to evacuate has been confirmed with OROs.

From the time an evacuation order is issued until 90 minutes after the order is issued, background traffic begins to diminish as evacuating traffic begins to exit the EPZ and the establishment of ACPs prevent inbound traffic from entering the EPZ. The evacuating traffic begins to increase at the rate of the time distributions related to the trip generation times (see section 4.1). The background and pass-through traffic stops entering the EPZ 90 minutes after the order to evacuate is issued.

2.6. Summary of Demand Estimation A total of 10 Scenarios were evaluated for an evacuation of the full EPZ. As previously described, the use of various sectors and distances within the EPZ is not appropriate for the CRN Site and this ETE only considers an evacuation of the entire EPZ reflecting the effects of seasonal variations, day-of-the-week, and adverse weather conditions resulting in a total of 10 unique evacuation cases. Each scenario results in a specific population to be evacuated. Table 2.8 provides a summary of the total populations used in the analysis for each scenario for an evacuation of the EPZ. Table 2.9 provides a summary of the total number of vehicles, by population group (permanent residents, transients, transit dependent residents, shadow population, background and pass-through), for each scenario for an evacuation of the EPZ and represents the input values used in the traffic simulation modeling.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Table 2.8 Total Population Considered for Each Scenario Transit Dependent Permanent Transient Special Major Shadow Scenario Permanent Total Population Residents Population Facilities Employers Population Residents 1 856 185 35 47 107 37,126 38,356 2 856 173 35 47 107 37,126 38,344 3 856 185 35 47 12 37,126 38,261 4 856 197 35 47 12 37,126 38,273 5 856 92 35 47 107 37,126 38,263 6 856 87 35 47 107 37,126 38,258 7 856 92 35 47 12 37,126 38,168 8 856 99 35 47 12 37,126 38,175 9 856 185 35 47 107 37,126 38,356 10* 879 190 128 47 2,810 38,091 42,053

• Peak Construction - Permanent Resident population and Shadow population have been extrapolated to the Year 2024, which is when the construction workforce will be at its peak. Major employer data includes projected construction employees at the CRN Site.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Table 2.9 Total Vehicles Considered for Each Scenario Permanent Transit Dependent Background and Transient Major Shadow Scenario Resident Permanent Schools Pass-through Total Vehicles Vehicles Employers Population Vehicles Resident Vehicles Traffic 1 658 109 6 0 107 21,206 45,069 67,155 2 658 102 6 0 107 22,246 45,069 68,188 3 658 109 6 0 12 21,985 36,055 58,825 4 658 116 6 0 12 21,985 22,535 45,312 5 658 54 6 0 107 22,247 45,069 68,141 6 658 51 6 0 107 22,246 45,069 68,137 7 658 54 6 0 12 21,985 36,055 58,770 8 658 58 6 0 12 21,985 22,535 45,254 9 658 109 6 0 107 22,246 45,069 68,195 10* 675 112 7 0 2,810 22,820 46,241 72,665

• Peak Construction - Permanent Resident population and Shadow population have been extrapolated to the Year 2024, which is when the construction workforce will be at its peak. Major employer data includes projected construction employees at the CRN Site.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate 3.0 ROADWAY CAPACITY In conjunction with the development of the traffic network in the vicinity of the CRN Site, an estimate of roadway capacity is required. Roadway capacity is defined as the maximum rate at which vehicles can be expected to traverse a section of roadway during a given time period under prevailing roadway, traffic, weather, and control conditions. The capacity analysis in this study has been performed using the application of processes and equations established in the U.S. Department of Transportations Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) (Reference 6). The (LOS), as defined in the HCM, provides a quality measure of the traffic operational conditions of a roadway and is designated as A for free flow operating conditions through F for congested operating conditions.

The roadway network in the vicinity of the CRN Site consists of the following three primary categories of roads:

1. Two-lane Local Roads - Various local and residential streets are located within the city limits of Oak Ridge and Roane County.

2. State Roads (Highway 58) - The portion of Highway 58 traversing the EPZ begins at an interchange with I-40 west-southwest of the CRN Site, then heads northeast, crossing the EPZ boundary 2 miles west of the CRN Site. Highway 58 continues northeast, before turning north and exiting the EPZ, 2 miles north-northwest of the CRN Site.

3. Freeways (I-40) - I-40 is the primary east-west route through the EPZ and crosses the EPZ boundary 2 miles east and 2 miles south-southwest of the CRN Site.

The following sections discuss the methods used in this study to determine roadway capacity.

3.1. Roadway Characteristics Roadway characteristics were obtained from an ArcGIS network file, which is imbedded in the raw calibrated data obtained from the data provider. Roadway characteristics, such as number of lanes, lengths, and free flow speed were extracted from the network file and exported to simulation input files. Table 3.1 provides the definition of free flow speed based on functional class. There are six functional classes in the CRN Site area according to the definition of the roadway databases. Speed at capacity and jam density were then designed according to 43 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate suggestions from the HCM. Based on field surveys, such roadway characteristics were further adjusted and calibrated to reflect real situations. The roadways included in the ETE analysis are primarily functional class 2 to 5 in the vicinity of the CRN Site.

Table 3.1 Free Flow Speed by Functional Class Function Free Flow Speed at Capacity Capacity Jam Density Class Speed (mph) (mph) (Veh/Hour/Lane) (Veh/Mile/Lane) 1 80 65 2,400 240 2 65 50 2,400 240 3 55 45 2,300 240 4 45 35 2,250 240 5 30 25 2,100 240 6 20 15 1,900 240 Figures 3.1 through 3.4 illustrate the roadway system, including links and nodes used in the analysis. A link is defined as a segment of roadway between two nodes. A node is an identification designator used to connect links in a roadway network model or to apply input data onto the network. Nodes are at intersections, ramps, etc., and contain characteristics such as traffic control and may be used as input points to assign loading of vehicles. Links are identified using blue text and nodes are identified as boxes with accompanying black text identifiers in Figures 3.1 through 3.4.

Characteristics for the roadways in the roadway network, including nodes, links and loading input information are included in Appendix A.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Figure 3.1 Evacuation Network Map 45 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Figure 3.2 Evacuation Network Map - Grid I 46 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Figure 3.3 Evacuation Network Map - Grid II 47 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Figure 3.4 Evacuation Network Map - Grid III 48 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate 3.2. Capacity Analysis Although the majority of the parameters for the road network that are input variables for the simulation are imported from the GIS database providers, local adjustments were conducted to ensure the accuracy of variables. The principles used for adjusting the variables are based on the HCM and the Green Book (A Policy on Geometric Design of Highways and Streets from AASHTO) (Reference 7).

The capacity of a road, according to the HCM, is the maximum sustainable hourly flow rate at which vehicles can reasonably traverse a point during a given time period under prevailing roadway, traffic, and control conditions (Reference 6).

According to the HCM, the factors affecting capacity of a roadway include design speed, number of lanes, the width of the lanes, shoulder, geometrical features (horizontal and vertical curves), traffic compositions as well as some other environment factors, such as weather, visual obstruction of the roadway, etc (Reference 6). These factors need to be incorporated into the simulation environment such that the simulation will be able to reflect the real traffic status, especially during the process of evacuation when congestion is possible in the network.

The capacity of the roadway is defined according to the recommendations by the HCM. The roads in the vicinity of the CRN Site are divided into the six functional classes based on the features of the roads, including hierarchy in the network, traffic load, serving environment, design speed, etc. The capacity of each class is defined in Table 3.1. The capacity in Table 3.1 is the description of network under perfect traffic conditions. As described in Section 3.4, a reduction in capacity is considered for ETE scenarios 2 and 6, considering adverse weather conditions.

3.3. Intersections Control Similar to the roadway capacity, intersection capacity is determined by multiple factors such as roadway geometrics, lane width, and number of lanes, etc. In addition, because intersections are the meeting point of two or more roads and they are usually controlled by traffic lights or other traffic control methodologies (stop signs or yield signs), the capacity at intersections will also be affected by the cycle length of the traffic signal, green time, turning movements, the 49 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate conflicting traffic, and other factors. It is important to reflect the prevailing intersection control treatments in the simulation such that the real traffic conditions should be replicated.

The underlying rules and parameters adopted by INTEGRATION at intersections, such as left and right turn gap acceptance, acceleration rate, discharge headway, and driver behavior during yellow light et al., are constructed in accordance with the recommendations from the HCM and are calibrated in-field.

The intersection traffic control data in the CRN Site area were obtained from two major sources.

Traffic signal timing data, including cycle length and phases, were requested from local town or county traffic agencies. Field survey data provided supplemental information for certain intersections. Stop signs and yield signs controlled intersections are identified from Google street view images. Data are then coded into an input file for INTEGRATION and are calibrated to field observations in terms of travel speeds and counts. Because the data obtained from local transportation agency is incomplete, estimation of cycle lengths and split of the signal is conducted based on the locations of the intersections where the signal data are not available.

The rules for estimation are based on geographic locations and road class resemblance. A similar traffic signal timing plan at an adjacent intersection of the same road class in the area was adopted for intersections where the data are not available. Because it is not uncommon for traffic control personnel to direct traffic and override the existing traffic signal plans resulting in improvement in the capacity of the intersections during an evacuation, the simulation optimizes the cycle lengths and offset times at a frequency of 5 minutes.

Characteristics for the intersections, including control summaries and signal files, are included in Appendix A.

3.4. Adverse Weather According to the HCM, during adverse weather the capacity and free flow speed of the roadway will be impaired (Reference 6). Table 3.2 illustrates the capacity drop and free flow speed reduction on freeways suggested by research conducted during previous studies.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Table 3.2 Speed Reductions in Inclement Weather Percent Percent Capacity Condition Speed Reduction Reduction Heavy Rain 10% - 18% 5% - 17%

Heavy Snow/Ice 20% - 28% 20% - 35%

The reduction in capacity and speed is calculated based on several factors including pavement condition, terrain, roadway functional class, and other factors. In accordance with the guidance presented in NUREG/CR-7002, the following roadway capacity and speed reduction factors were adopted for use in Scenarios 2 and 6, respectively (Reference 4). The values in Table 3.3 for heavy rain and snow are derived from Chapter 22 of the HCM, Exhibit 22-7 and the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) study, Identifying and Assessing Key Weather-Related Parameters and Their Impacts on Traffic Operations Using Simulation (Reference 8).

Table 3.3 Weather Capacity Factors Scenario Season Weather Condition Roadway Capacity Speed 2 Summer Heavy Rain 90% 85%

6 Winter Heavy Snow/Ice 85% 65%

Based on the location of Clinch River and data obtained from NOAA (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mrx/?n=oqtclimate) indicating average annual snowfall of 6.6 inches and 3 days per year with greater than 1 of snow, the winter adverse weather scenario (Scenario 6) considers ice as the limiting winter adverse weather condition and there is no effect on mobilization based on the need for snow removal from roadways or driveways.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate 4.0 DEVELOPMENT OF EVACUTION TIMES Evacuation times are estimated for 90% and 100% of the evacuating vehicles to exit the EPZ boundary. A total of 10 scenarios were simulated in various weather, season, time, and network conditions to reflect the traffic conditions when the evacuation order is issued. Development of the evacuation times considered preparation activities, including the time to receive the notification and time to prepare to evacuate.

4.1. Trip Generation Time A random telephone survey of households within the EPZ was used to identify factors affecting the evacuee trip generation time (mobilization time) as well as other data to be used in the ETE analyses. The mobilization time is the major component of the total ETE when the EPZ population density is low and there is minimal traffic congestion, as is the case for the CRN Site.

The telephone survey provides a sound, documented basis for the trip generation times needed to develop the calculated ETEs.

With respect to trip generation time, the telephone survey was used to obtain data related to whether or not commuters would return home or evacuate directly from work; how long it would take commuters to travel home; and how long it would take to complete preparations at home and at work prior to evacuation. The data obtained from the telephone survey related to trip generation time is summarized in Tables 4.4, 4.5, and 4.6.

The evacuation trips consists of a sequence of events and activities. Each event (other than the notification alert) occurs at an instant of time, while activities are accomplished in series or parallel, over a period of time. The relevant events associated with the public's preparation for the evacuation trip are presented in Table 4.1. One or more activities are associated with each sequence of events as shown in Table 4.2.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Table 4.1 Trip Generation Evacuation Events Event Description 1 Notification to public 2 Awareness of incident 3 Leave work/facility 4 Arrive home/residence 5 Leave to evacuate Table 4.2 Trip Generation Evacuation Activities Activity Description Event Sequence 1 Receive notification 12 2 Prepare to leave work/facility 23 3 Travel home/residence 34 4 Prepare to leave to evacuate 2,4 5 The Trip Generation Time (the total elapsed time from Event 1 to 5) is dependent on the scenario and will vary from one household to another. Factors affecting the trip generation time include, but are not limited to the following:

• A commuter may or may not return home prior to evacuating.

• Households with a vehicle available for evacuation may or may not wait for a commuter to return home prior to evacuating.

• Transients within the EPZ may evacuate immediately without returning to their residence (With respect to transients, residence refers to their hotel, motel or campground.).

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate The flow chart included as Figure 4.1 indicates the relationship of events and activities preceding the evacuation trip.

Figure 4.1 Flow Chart of Events and Activities Preceding the Evacuation Trip 54 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Estimated Time Distributions of Activities Preceding the Evacuation Trip The time distribution of an event is obtained by "summing" the time distributions of all prior contributing activities.

NUREG-0654/FEMA-REP-1 Appendix 3 (as amended by Supplement 4), 44 CFR 350.5(a), and Section V, Part A of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Radiological Emergency Preparedness (REP) Program Manual (FEMA P-1028) (Reference 9), discuss Alert and Notification System (ANS) design objectives. The minimum acceptable design objectives for coverage by an ANS is the capability for providing an alert signal and beginning an informational or instructional message to the population in the EPZ within 15 minutes and providing protective action recommendations, if appropriate. The coverage of essentially 100%

of the population in the EPZ who may not have received the initial notification must occur within 45 minutes. Based on the regulatory requirements and guidance in FEMA P-1028, the notification distribution used in this analysis is provided in Table 4.3.

Table 4.3 Notification Time Distribution Elapsed Time Percentage of (Minutes) Population Notified 0 0%

5 7%

10 13%

15 27%

20 47%

25 66%

30 87%

35 92%

40 97%

45 100%

It is assumed following notification and evacuation order, most businesses within the EPZ will shut down and most employees would leave work quickly and that residents dispersed within the EPZ performing daily activities will travel home. Table 4.4 shows the preparation time distribution to leave work/facility (Activity 2) from data obtained by those households that 55 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate responded to the telephone survey. This distribution is applicable for all commuters (those going home prior to evacuating, those evacuating directly from work, or those living outside the EPZ) and for residents to leave stores, restaurant, parks, and other locations within the EPZ.

Notification of the transient population is assumed to occur at the same time distribution as permanent residents. Those transients in campgrounds within the EPZ will receive an alert via the ANS.

Table 4.4 Prepare to Leave Work/Facility Time Distribution Elapsed Time Cumulative (Minutes) Percentage 0 0%

10 79.6%

15 86.1%

20 91.2%

30 96.5%

40 97.3%

50 98.4%

60 98.9%

120 99.5%

180 99.7%

240 100.0%

The time distribution to travel home (Activity 3) for commuters/residents after leaving work/facility was obtained from those who responded to the telephone survey and is provided in Table 4.5. This distribution is applicable for transients going back to residence to begin the evacuation trip.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Table 4.5 Travel to Home/Residence Time Distribution Elapsed Time Cumulative (Minutes) Percentage 0 0.0%

5 11.5%

10 24.9%

15 39.1%

20 51.7%

25 60.1%

30 78.3%

35 82.0%

40 89.0%

45 93.3%

50 94.6%

55 94.6%

60 97.1%

75 97.9%

90 99.2%

105 99.2%

120 99.5%

150 99.5%

180 99.5%

210 99.7%

240 99.7%

300 100.0%

The preparation time distribution for households to leave home (Activity 4) to begin the evacuation trip was obtained from those who responded to the telephone survey, under different time scenarios (daytime, nighttime, and weekend) and is included in Table 4.6. This distribution is also applicable for transients preparing at their residence to begin the evacuation trip.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Table 4.6 Prepare to Leave Home/Residence Time Distribution Elapsed Time Cumulative Percentage (Minutes)

Daytime Night time Weekends 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

15 40.9% 38.4% 39.7%

30 59.4% 57.9% 58.9%

45 81.5% 81.1% 81.3%

60 89.4% 88.6% 89.1%

75 94.4% 93.2% 94.0%

90 94.5% 93.7% 94.2%

105 95.0% 94.7% 95.2%

120 96.5% 96.2% 96.7%

135 98.5% 98.2% 98.8%

150 98.7% 98.3% 99.0%

165 98.8% 98.7% 99.0%

180 99.2% 98.8% 99.2%

195 99.3% 99.0% 99.3%

210 99.3% 99.0% 99.3%

225 99.3% 99.2% 99.3%

240 99.5% 99.3% 99.5%

255 99.7% 99.5% 99.7%

270 99.7% 99.5% 99.7%

285 99.7% 99.5% 99.7%

300 99.7% 99.5% 99.7%

315 99.7% 99.5% 99.7%

330 99.7% 99.5% 99.7%

345 99.7% 99.5% 99.7%

360 99.7% 99.5% 99.7%

420 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Calculation of Trip Generation Time Distribution To compute the trip generation times, new time distributions (A, B, C, and D) are formed by applying a summing algorithm repeatedly to calculate the time distribution of an event that is dependent on two or more sequential activities. Table 4.7 shows the summing procedure and a description of each of the final trip generation distributions.

Table 4.7 Trip Generation Distributions Description Activities Distribution Description Sequence Time distribution of commuters evacuate directly, A employees live outside the EPZ, and transients 1+2 evacuate directly.

Time distribution of commuters/transients arriving B 1+2+3 home/residence.

Time distribution of residents wait for commuters and C transients arriving residence to begin the evacuation 1+2+3+4 trip.

Time distribution of residents without/do not wait for D commuters and transients at residence to begin the 1+4 evacuation trip.

The trip generation distributions describe the activities that take place before the evacuation trips begin. Distribution B is embedded within Distribution C because those residents are awaiting the return of the commuter and transients arriving at their residence before beginning their evacuation.

Statistical Outliers Some of the numeric responses are inconsistent with the overall pattern of results because the response either may be unrealistic or reflects a special population that need to be classified in a different population subgroup. These outliers may be valid responses that must be considered or unrepresentative and has to be dropped from the sample. To eliminate outliers:

a) Mean and standard deviation of the specific activity are estimated from the responses.

b) Median of the same data is estimated, with its position relative to the mean noted.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate c) The histogram of the data is inspected and all values greater than 3.5 standard deviations from the mean are flagged and either considered as a valid response or dropped from the sample.

d) All values greater than 4 standard deviations from the mean are considered outliers and dropped from the sample.

e) Repeat steps "a" to "d".

Mobilization Time Distributions The overall (or total) mobilization distributions are constructed using the different mobilization activities modeled. This is done by using the data sets and distributions under different scenarios (e.g. households with/without commuters, households that wait/dont wait for commuters, commuters/transients evacuate directly, commuters/transients returning to home/residence prior to evacuating) according to the flow chart presented in Figure 4.1. The mobilization times obtained under different scenarios are used as direct inputs to the simulation model that lead to the ETE. Table 4.8 shows the trip generation distributions A, C, and D on the same time scale (elapsed time) and Figure 4.2 presents a comparison for the trip generation time distributions for the daytime scenarios.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Table 4.8 Trip Generation Distributions (Daytime)

Trip Generation Distributions (Daytime)

Elapsed Distribution A Distribution C Distribution D Time (Minutes) Population Cumulative Population Cumulative Population Cumulative 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

15 5.8% 5.8% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

30 35.5% 41.3% 0.00% 0.00% 11.21% 11.21%

45 45.4% 86.7% 2.11% 2.11% 29.99% 41.20%

60 12.4% 99.1% 10.53% 12.64% 22.73% 63.92%

75 0.9% 100.0% 19.09% 31.73% 18.04% 81.96%

90 21.65% 53.38% 9.11% 91.07%

105 18.10% 71.47% 4.12% 95.19%

120 12.28% 83.76% 0.89% 96.08%

150 10.44% 94.20% 2.25% 98.33%

180 3.45% 97.65% 1.67% 100.00%

240 2.30% 99.94%

300 0.06% 100.00%

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Figure 4.2 Trip Generation Distributions Comparison (Daytime) 100%

Population Evacuating (%)

80%

60%

40%

Distribution A 20% Distribution C Distribution D 0%

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Elapsed Time (min)

Using the same methodology, the trip generation time distributions A, C, and D for the nighttime and weekend scenarios were developed and are shown in Tables 4.9 and 4.10, respectively.

Figures 4.3 and 4.4 present the comparison for the trip generation distributions.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Table 4.9 Trip Generation Distributions (Nighttime)

Trip Generation Distributions (Nighttime)

Elapsed Distribution A Distribution C Distribution D Time Population Cumulative Population Cumulative Population Cumulative 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

15 5.8% 5.8% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

30 35.5% 41.3% 0.00% 0.00% 10.56% 10.56%

45 45.4% 86.7% 1.98% 1.98% 28.85% 39.41%

60 12.4% 99.1% 10.04% 12.02% 23.40% 62.81%

75 0.9% 100.0% 18.62% 30.64% 18.80% 81.61%

90 21.70% 52.34% 8.90% 90.51%

105 18.40% 70.73% 3.96% 94.46%

120 12.40% 83.14% 1.19% 95.65%

150 10.59% 93.73% 2.67% 98.33%

180 3.83% 97.55% 1.67% 100.00%

240 2.39% 99.94%

300 0.06% 100.00%

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Figure 4.3 Trip Generation Distributions Comparison (Nighttime) 64 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Table 4.10 Trip Generation Distributions (Weekend)

Trip Generation Distributions (Weekend)

Elapsed Distribution A Distribution C Distribution D Time Population Cumulative Population Cumulative Population Cumulative 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

15 5.8% 5.8% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

30 35.5% 41.3% 0.00% 0.00% 10.84% 10.84%

45 45.4% 86.7% 2.04% 2.04% 29.32% 40.15%

60 12.4% 99.1% 10.24% 12.28% 22.95% 63.11%

75 0.9% 100.0% 18.78% 31.06% 18.19% 81.29%

90 21.55% 52.61% 9.01% 90.30%

105 18.12% 70.73% 4.08% 94.38%

120 12.28% 83.01% 1.02% 95.40%

150 10.52% 93.53% 2.65% 98.05%

180 3.78% 97.30% 1.93% 99.98%

240 2.62% 99.93% 0.02% 100.00%

300 0.07% 100.00%

Figure 4.4 Trip Generation Distributions Comparison (Weekend) 65 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate 4.1.1. Permanent Residents and Transient Population Permanent residents are household residents, residents in special facilities, residents in medical facilities, employees at work, and children at schools within the EPZ. Census data were used to generate residential population and the population is distributed to zones of the network based on spatial locations. Major employers in the area were also geocoded and spatially associated with zones. The total number of employees is dependent on time of day and time of week. It is assumed that each employee commutes to work separately.

The transient population refers to people staying in a hotel, motel or a campground. According to different scenarios, the total transient population and locations which they are at varies by weather, time of day and time of year. The total number of transient population is divided into three groups: 1) Transients in their residence when the order to evacuate is received and will evacuate directly from hotel/model/campground; 2) Transients away from their residence when the order to evacuate is issued, but will return to their residence prior to evacuating; 3)

Transients away from their residence when the order to evacuate is issued that will evacuate directly from where they are. The first two groups are assigned to the corresponding zones where the hotel/motel/campground are located. The third group of transient population is distributed evenly within the EPZ.

Assumptions regarding transients are scenario-specific and are detailed in each scenario described in Section 1.3.

4.1.2. Transit Dependent Permanent Residents Transit-dependent permanent residents are those residents within the EPZ who do not have access to a vehicle or are dependent on help from outside the home to evacuate. The estimated number of transit-dependent permanent residents was adapted from the results of the random telephone survey of the households in the EPZ and surrounding area and are described in detail in Section 2.2 and Table 2.6. It is estimated that buses would be available to pick up transit dependent residents approximately 120 minutes (obtain drivers, brief drivers and mobilize to bus routes) after the order to evacuate and that would allow individuals to make their way to a bus route.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate A subset of transit dependent residents includes people with disabilities and those with access and functional needs that live independent of a special facility. Information was requested from Roane County regarding residents who need assistance during an evacuation, but none was provided.

Because local emergency management agencies were not able to provide information regarding special needs individuals requiring assistance during an evacuation in the EPZ, the total number of vehicles needed was estimated as described in Section 2.2 and evenly distributed across the EPZ.

It is assumed that ambulances required to evacuate special needs individuals are capable of mobilizing to the home, loading the patient and begin the evacuation within 30 minutes of the evacuation order.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Table 4.11 Evacuation of Transit Dependent Individuals Summer Winter Summer Midweek Midweek Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Midweek Weekend Weekend Scenario 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10*

Daytime Daytime Evening Daytime Daytime Evening Daytime Normal Adverse Normal Normal Normal Adverse Normal Normal Normal Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Full EPZ 2:11 2:11 2:10 2:11 2:11 2:12 2:11 2:11 2:11 2:36 Times presented in Hours:Minutes

• Peak Construction Scenario 68 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate 4.1.3. Special Facilities The presence of special facilities was researched during development of the ETE and it was determined that one facility, the Kingston Academy, currently exists within the EPZ. The Kingston Academy is a Psychiatric Residential Treatment Facility with living quarters and a capacity of 52 children between the ages of 5 and 17. The facility provides residential treatment and day treatment services. For this ETE, it is assumed the facility is at 90% capacity when an evacuation is ordered and the facility is ready to evacuate 75 minutes (60 minutes to prepare +

15 minutes to load vehicles) after the order to evacuate is issued. This results in an evacuation of approximately 47 residents from this facility. The number of transit-dependent residents in special facilities is summarized in Table 2.6.

Information on evacuation of the Kingston Academy is provided in Table 4.12.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Table 4.12 ETEs for Special Facility Populations Travel Mobilization Distance Outbound Loading Time to Number/Types Time to EPZ Travel ETE Facility Population Time EPZ of Vehicles Boundary Speed (hr:min)

(minutes) (minutes) Boundary (miles) (mph)

(minutes)

Kingston 47 3 Vans 75 15 2.58 45.32 3.416 1:19 Academy 70 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate 4.2. Evacuation Time Estimate Modeling This Section of the report includes a discussion of INTEGRATION, the traffic simulation model used in performance of the ETE and a summary of the key inputs, assumptions, outputs, and computational process associated with the simulation. INTEGRATION is a microscopic traffic assignment and simulation program with broad applicability to traffic simulation activities well-suited for performance of ETEs for nuclear power plants. The INTEGRATION software calculates a number of Measures of Effectiveness (MOEs) which are addressed by NUREG/CR-7002. The INTEGRATION software is listed in the U.S. Department of Transportations (DOT) Evacuation Management Operations (EMO) Modeling Assessment:

Transportation Modeling Inventory, developed to support selection of an appropriate model for use in evacuation analyses (Reference 1).

INTEGRATION is an integrated simulation and traffic assignment model that performs traffic simulations by tracking the movement of individual vehicles every 1/10 of a second. This allows detailed analyses of lane-changing movements and shock wave propagations. It also permits considerable flexibility in representing spatial and temporal variations in traffic conditions. The model also estimates the expected number of vehicle crashes using a time-based crash prediction model.

The INTEGRATION model computes a number of MOEs, including the network efficiency.

Efficiency evaluation of highway alternatives involves computing the average speed and vehicle delay. The average vehicle speed is computed as the average of all vehicle speeds, where the vehicle speed is computed as the trip distance divided by the trip duration. This model has been validated against state-of-the-art delay estimation procedures using queuing theory and shockwave analysis and against standard traffic flow theory and has been utilized for the evaluation of real-life applications.

The calibration of the INTEGRATION software entails two calibration efforts, namely calibration of the traffic demand and calibration of the network supply. The calibration of the traffic demand involves the use of the telephone survey results to construct a time-varying origin-destination (O-D) table. Different O-D demands were constructed for the different scenarios that were identified in Section 1.3. The second calibration effort entails calibrating four roadway parameters: saturation flow rate; free-flow speed; speed-at-capacity; and jam density.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate 4.2.1. Traffic Simulation Model Input Input files of INTEGRATION include files defining the topological relationship of the network, traffic control information and traffic demand data. The input files of the simulation include:

• Node File

• Link File

• Demand File

• Signal File

• Incident File

• Other supplemental Files The final network generated includes 1,824 nodes, 252 zones, and 3,312 links. Lane striping file is also included to define turning movements assigned to each lane at intersections.

4.2.2. Traffic Simulation Model Output INTEGRATION is flexible regarding simulation outputs and is capable of providing output files by network link, by vehicle, and by time sequences. At an aggregated level, INTEGRATION is capable of providing output results as: average vehicle stops/delays; total vehicles existing in the network; travel time/distance by vehicle class; volume/capacity ratio; and others. At individual link or vehicle level, INTEGRATION is capable of providing output results as:

Starting/ending time by vehicle and/or by link; link flow; link average travel speed; and queues on link, etc. Because the goal of the ETE is to estimate the time needed for the public to move out of the area of concern, the output file needed includes time and location information for each evacuating vehicle. By setting each evacuation vehicle as a probe vehicle, the appropriate output file records the trajectories of each vehicle. Data recorded in the output file are link and vehicle based. Once a vehicle exits a link, a record is written to the output file documenting time, trip ID, O-D, link ID, and vehicle speed. The data in the output file is then aggregated to calculate the travel time for each evacuating vehicle exiting the EPZ boundary by identifying the link ID at the boundary of the EPZ.

4.3. Evacuation Time Estimates for the General Public The output file provides a vehicle probe listing which chronicles the completion of each link a vehicle probe traverses. Every evacuating vehicle is marked as a probe in the simulation for 72 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate ETE. Two types of records can be produced, namely record type 11 and 21. Record type 11 is produced only once for each link and is generated at the time the vehicle departs the link.

Record type 21, in contrast, is produced every second the vehicle is on the link.

To compute the evacuation time, the following steps are adopted:

1. The phone survey asked questions such as whether or not the respondents will be at work, if yes, will they return home before evacuating, and how long will they need to prepare to evacuate. Such data are aggregated to develop trip generation times as described in Section 4.1. Several time distributions are generated to describe the time people need to prepare to evacuate. Such distributions are statistically aggregated to obtain the overall patterns of the time needed to prepare to evacuate.

2. The simulation starts with a 45 minute background traffic simulation to ensure equilibration prior to initiating the ETE simulation.

3. Following this 45 minute period, the background traffic gradually decreases and traffic volumes start to convert into evacuation traffic as INTEGRATION begins to generate and load vehicles into the network based on the trip generation time distribution.

4. At 90 minutes the background traffic will stop entering the network.

5. The simulation continues to simulate each vehicles movement and traffic condition in the network.

6. The output file records the trajectory of each vehicle and information such as origin, destination, starting time, and arrival time, etc.

7. The road links at the boundary of the EPZs are used to identify occurrence of each vehicle on the links. The travel time on such links are divided into 2 parts proportional on the length of the section of that link located within and out of the boundary.

8. The time spent traveling is documented and aggregated. The ETE is estimated for 90%

and 100% of the vehicle exiting the EPZs.

The ETE for the evacuation of the general public are provided in Tables 4.13 and 4.14.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Table 4.13 ETEs for Evacuation of the General Public (90% of the Affected Population)

Summer Winter Summer Midweek Midweek Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Midweek Weekend Weekend Scenario 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10*

Daytime Daytime Evening Daytime Daytime Evening Daytime Normal Adverse Normal Normal Normal Adverse Normal Normal Normal Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Full EPZ 2:09 2:09 1:45 1:40 2:16 2:17 1:44 1:40 2:09 3:38 Times presented in Hours:Minutes

• Peak Construction Scenario Table 4.14 ETEs for Evacuation of the General Public (100% of the Affected Population)

Summer Winter Summer Midweek Midweek Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Midweek Weekend Weekend Scenario 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10*

Daytime Daytime Evening Daytime Daytime Evening Daytime Normal Adverse Normal Normal Normal Adverse Normal Normal Normal Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Full EPZ 3:43 3:43 3:05 3:03 3:52 3:52 3:10 3:01 3:43 4:07 Times presented in Hours:Minutes

• Peak Construction Scenario 74 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate 5.0 OTHER CONSIDERATIONS The preceding sections describe the methodology and approach to calculating the ETE. In addition to the calculation of an ETE, there are other considerations that need to be addressed in this and future ETE studies. These considerations, as appropriate, are described below.

5.1. Development of Traffic Control Plans In the event of an evacuation of the EPZ, OROs would establish ACPs and Traffic Control Points (TCPs) as necessary to support the evacuation. It is assumed that ACPs can be staffed within approximately 90 minutes of the advisory to evacuate. Activation of ACPs prior to 90 minutes could delay commuters returning from areas outside of the EPZ. Therefore, it is recommended that ACPs be established 90 minutes following an advisory to evacuate to allow commuters sufficient time to return home and prepare for an evacuation.

ACPs should be established as follows to restrict in-bound traffic flow toward the CRN Site:

1. Prior to 45 minutes after the evacuation order is issued, background and pass-through traffic is running normally in the network.

2. From the time an evacuation order is issued until 90 minutes after the order is issued, background traffic begins to diminish as traffic exits the EPZ and the ACPs begin to prevent inbound traffic from entering the EPZ. The evacuating traffic begins to increase at the rate of the time distribution to get ready (see section 4.1).

3. The background and pass-through traffic stops entering the EPZ 90 minutes after the evacuation order is issued.

Based on the low population of the EPZ, the limited number of vehicles involved in the evacuation, the relative simplicity of the roadway network within the EPZ, and the absence of congestion observed during the traffic simulation modeling, the need to develop more detailed traffic control plans to support an evacuation is not considered necessary at this time. As future ETE studies are conducted additional consideration should be given to the need for a more detailed traffic control plan based on future potential changes to the roadway network, the potential for increased populations within the EPZ and the potential for increased congestion observed during traffic simulation modeling.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate 5.2. Enhancements in Evacuation Time Guidance presented in NUREG/CR-7002 suggests that an evaluation of potential enhancements that could reduce the evacuation time be limited to those roadways or intersections of the EPZ that impact the ETE the greatest (Reference 4). These evaluations typically include intersections and roadways that experience LOS F conditions for some period of time. Based on the absence of congestion observed during the traffic simulation modeling, the need to develop enhancements that may reduce evacuation times would have little, if any, benefit. As future ETE studies are conducted, additional consideration should be given to the need for enhancements that may reduce evacuation times.

5.3. State and Local Review State and local authorities were involved in the development of the ETE. Interactions began with a kick-off meeting in Knoxville in January 2014 during which the regulatory requirements, the process used to develop the ETE and the associated data and information needs were discussed. The meeting was attended by representatives of the following State and local agencies and private sector support organizations:

• Tennessee Emergency Management Agency

• Tennessee Highway Patrol

• Roane County Office of Emergency Services and Homeland Security

• Anderson County Office of Emergency Management and Homeland Security

• Loudon County Mayor

• Loudon County Homeland Security and Emergency Management Agency

• Loudon County Sheriffs Office

• Knox County Emergency Management Agency

• Knox County Sheriffs Office

• Knox County Engineering 76 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate

• City of Oak Ridge Fire Department

• Kingston Police Department

• Lenoir City Fire Department

• Rural/Metro of East Tennessee

• American Red Cross of East Tennessee Following the kick-off meeting, a telephone survey instrument was prepared and provided to the TEMA for review and comment, resulting in several modifications. Each agency approved of the instrument prior to initiating the telephone survey.

TEMA and Roane County provided assistance with completing data collection related to the permanent resident and transient populations, schools, major employers, transportation resources, transit-dependent residents and hotels, motels and campgrounds in the EPZ.

5.4. Reviews and Updates Details related to updating this ETE are included in Sections 5.6 and 5.7 of this report.

5.5. Reception Centers and Congregate Care Centers The specific locations of reception centers have not yet been identified. Because of the absence of a school population and the limited number of transit-dependent permanent residents, it is not anticipated that multiple trips will be necessary to evacuate the transit dependent population. Therefore the location of these facilities and the logistics of offloading passengers will not impact return trips to the EPZ or the evacuation time.

5.6. New Reactors Part 5 of the Early Site Permit Application (ESPA) being submitted for the CRN Site includes two (2) Emergency Plans (Part 5A and Part 5B) for review by the NRC. Part 5A will address a site boundary Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) and Part 5B addresses a 2-Mile EPZ. The final EPZ size will be determined at the time the Combined License Application (COLA) is submitted.

This ETE is prepared in support of the 2-Mile EPZ Emergency Plan. In the event the site boundary EPZ is selected for the CRN Site, the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) has 77 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate proposed an exemption from the requirements to perform an ETE and an update to this ETE will not be necessary.

Because the CRN Site is a greenfield site, as described in NUREG/CR-7002, emergency response plans are not in place, evacuation plans have not been approved and tested by local authorities and the locations of congregate care and reception centers have not been established. These conditions necessitate that the development of the ETE analysis be coordinated with the development of the emergency response program being prepared during the licensing phase (Reference 4). For the CRN Site, development of the offsite emergency response program will occur beginning with the development of the COLA. In the event a 2-mile EPZ is selected, assumptions used in the ETE must be consistent with the assumptions and proposed resources and infrastructure identified within the emergency response plan to provide an accurate ETE. An ETE update for the COLA is expected to be developed based on the most recent decennial census data projected to the year the license application will be submitted.

5.7. Early Site Permits This ETE was developed in support of the CRN Site ESPA. The ETE serves to satisfy the requirements of 10 CFR 52.17(b)(1), which states that the site safety analysis report identify physical characteristics of the proposed site, such as egress limitations from the area surrounding the site, that could pose a significant impediment to the development of emergency plans and if physical impediments are identified, the application must identify measures that would, when implemented, mitigate or eliminate the significant impediment. This ETE did not identify physical characteristics of the proposed site that could pose a significant impediment to the development of emergency plans.

As described in Section 5.6 and in Section 5.7 of NUREG/CR-7002, data and information is expected to be updated, as appropriate, to ensure up-to-date information is used to develop the ETE when the COLA is submitted.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate 6.0 GLOSSARY Count Station - Specific location on a roadway where traffic count surveys are conducted.

Demand Estimation - The total number of evacuees by population group including vehicles.

Emergency Response Planning Areas (ERPAs) - Defined areas that constitute the EPZ and for which emergency response plans have been developed. These areas are typically defined by geographic or political boundaries to support emergency response planning and may also be referred to as subareas, protective action areas, or other local terminology.

Evacuation Tail - A small portion of the population that takes a longer time to evacuate than the rest of the general public and is the last to leave the evacuation area. The tail generally conforms to about the last 10 percent of the population.

Keyhole Evacuation - An evacuation of the 2-mile radius around an NPP and the downwind sectors forming a keyhole configuration.

Link - A segment of roadway between two nodes.

Loading Curve - The rate at which vehicles are entered onto the roadway network.

Measure of Effectiveness (MOE) - Statistics used to describe performance. As applied in this document, these include output data that provide key performance characteristics of the roadway network and the evacuation time.

Node - An identification designator used to connect links in a roadway network model or to apply input data onto the network. Nodes are at intersections, ramps, etc., and contain characteristics such as traffic control and may be used as input points to assign loading of vehicles.

Permanent Resident - All people having a residence in the area.

Roadway Capacity - The maximum rate at which vehicles can be reasonably expected to traverse a point or uniform section of roadway during a given time period under prevailing conditions.

Shadow Evacuation - Evacuation of persons from areas outside any officially declared evacuation zone.

Special Event - An activity where large transient populations are present for a limited period of time.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Special Facilities - Facilities where residents are confined or dependent upon facility personnel for transportation, including nursing homes, assisted living centers, hospitals, jails, prisons, and other similar facilities.

Staged Evacuation - A protective action where one area is ordered to evacuate while adjacent areas are ordered to shelter in place until ordered to evacuate.

Transient Population - Tourists, shoppers, employees, etc., who do not reside within the EPZ, and other people temporarily visiting the EPZ.

Trip Generation Time - Time elapsed for each population group from when the evacuation order was disseminated until the time when the evacuation trip actually begins (e.g., when the car leaves the driveway).

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate

7.0 REFERENCES

1. U.S. Department of Transportations (DOT) Evacuation Management Operations (EMO)

Modeling Assessment: Transportation Modeling Inventory, June 2008

2. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). NUREG/CR-6953, Vol. II, SAND2007-4195P, Review of NUREG-0654, Supplement 3, Criteria for Protective Action Recommendations for Severe Accidents - Focus Groups and Telephone Survey, October 2008.

3. Institute for Environmental Studies (IES), University of Toronto. The Mississauga Evacuation Final Report, June 1981.

4. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). NUREG/CR-7002, Vol. II, SAND2010-0016P, Criteria for Development of Evacuation Time Estimates, November 2011.

5. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). NUREG-0654/FEMA-REP-1, Rev. 1. Criteria for Preparation and Evaluation of Radiological Emergency Response Plans and Preparedness in Support of Nuclear Power Plants, November 1980.

6. Transportation Research Board (TRB). Highway Capacity Manual. National Research Council, Washington, DC, 2010.

7. American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO). A Policy on Geometric Design of Highways and Streets. AASHTO, Washington, DC, 2011.

8. Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). Identifying and Assessing Key Weather- Related Parameters and Their Impacts on Traffic Operations Using Simulation. U.S. Department of Transportation. Publication No. FHWA-HRT-04-131. September 2004.

9. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Radiological Emergency Preparedness Program Manual. FEMA-P-1028. January 2015.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Appendices Appendix A Roadway Network Characteristics Appendix B Evacuation Time Estimate Evaluation Criteria Checklist Appendix C Traffic Simulation Model Inputs and Outputs 82 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Appendix A - Roadway Network Characteristics 83 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Table A.1 Node Input File Node Node Node ID X-Coordinate Y-Coordinate Category Attribute 51 221.805 241.105 1 -51 59 248.935 203.993 1 -59 111 209.333 236.852 1 -111 185 224.818 260.019 1 -185 186 224.391 256.883 1 -186 188 231.454 249.464 1 -188 226 232.948 221.259 1 -226 301 244.246 209.738 4 0 302 243.991 209.856 4 0 369 247.79 211.173 4 0 370 242.104 207.672 4 0 371 246.2 209.016 4 0 376 242.807 207.75 4 0 560 248.192 211.435 4 0 578 242.109 207.328 4 0 579 248.349 211.205 4 0 882 232.1 207.485 4 0 883 232.605 208.059 4 0 890 273.447 220.325 4 0 891 271.605 220.361 4 0 893 261.13 218.709 4 0 895 273.497 220.582 4 0 896 271.483 220.625 4 0 897 261.233 218.477 4 0 898 263.51 219.481 4 0 899 263.712 219.274 4 0 1051 225.561 255.992 4 0 1052 224.793 256.579 4 0 1054 221.324 241.242 4 0 84 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Node Node Node ID X-Coordinate Y-Coordinate Category Attribute 1055 221.076 241.515 4 0 1133 211.705 233.162 4 0 1167 203.114 224.989 4 0 1168 219.167 239.52 4 0 1306 230.115 205.111 4 0 1307 235.216 210.188 4 0 1323 224.818 251.153 4 0 1324 225.079 252.877 4 0 1386 204.759 226.558 4 0 1387 207.392 229.064 4 0 1480 240.31 212.359 4 0 1481 235.771 210.486 4 0 1505 222.462 242.359 4 0 1506 222.913 242.888 4 0 1523 208.361 229.979 4 0 1524 208.655 230.261 4 0 1579 226.595 261.191 4 0 1580 225.887 258.139 4 0 1581 225.748 257.227 4 0 1582 225.826 255.774 4 0 1583 225.21 253.711 4 0 85 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Table A.2 Link Input File Speed First First Second Number Density Second Link ID From To Length Limit Capacity Signal Phase Releasing Releasing of Lanes (V/KM/Lane) Phase (mph) Releasing Direction Direction 17 301 302 0.028 45 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 74 369 301 0.382 55 1900 1 150 -67 2 111 0 0 75 301 370 0.298 45 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 76 371 301 0.212 45 1900 1 150 -67 1 111 0 0 80 376 371 0.363 55 1900 1 150 -68 2 111 0 0 239 560 369 0.048 80 2000 2 150 0 0 0 0 0 257 369 370 0.668 80 2000 2 150 0 0 0 0 0 258 578 376 0.082 80 2000 2 150 0 0 0 0 0 259 376 579 0.653 80 2000 2 150 0 0 0 0 0 495 882 883 0.077 45 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 503 891 890 0.184 80 2000 2 150 0 0 0 0 0 504 890 892 1.046 80 2000 2 150 0 0 0 0 0 505 893 560 1.487 80 2000 2 150 0 0 0 0 0 506 894 895 1.047 80 2000 2 150 0 0 0 0 0 507 895 896 0.202 80 2000 2 150 0 0 0 0 0 508 579 897 1.482 80 2000 2 150 0 0 0 0 0 509 898 893 0.25 80 2000 2 150 0 0 0 0 0 510 897 899 0.26 80 2000 2 150 0 0 0 0 0 637 1051 1052 0.097 30 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 639 51 1054 0.051 30 1900 1 150 10001 0 0 0 0 86 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Speed First First Second Number Density Second Link ID From To Length Limit Capacity Signal Phase Releasing Releasing of Lanes (V/KM/Lane) Phase (mph) Releasing Direction Direction 640 1054 1055 0.037 30 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 650 59 371 0.58 30 1900 1 150 -68 1 111 0 0 733 896 898 0.808 80 2000 2 150 0 0 0 0 0 734 899 891 0.799 80 2000 2 150 0 0 0 0 0 755 1133 111 0.45 30 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 757 1055 113 1.566 30 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 798 913 1167 0.803 55 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 799 1133 1168 0.981 55 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 874 371 579 0.313 45 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 993 1305 1306 1.469 45 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 994 1306 882 0.319 45 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 995 883 1307 0.338 45 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 1010 1323 1324 0.174 55 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 1097 1167 1386 0.227 55 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 1098 1386 1387 0.363 55 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 1263 302 1480 0.49 45 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 1264 1481 1480 0.495 45 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 1265 1307 1481 0.063 45 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 1303 1505 1506 0.07 55 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 1328 1168 1054 0.276 55 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 1329 1054 1505 0.16 55 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 87 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Speed First First Second Number Density Second Link ID From To Length Limit Capacity Signal Phase Releasing Releasing of Lanes (V/KM/Lane) Phase (mph) Releasing Direction Direction 1330 1506 1323 0.855 55 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 1331 1387 1523 0.133 55 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 1332 1523 1524 0.041 55 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 1333 1524 1133 0.421 55 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 1419 185 1579 0.223 30 1900 1 150 10001 0 0 0 0 1420 1052 186 0.05 30 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 1421 1580 1579 0.315 55 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 1422 1579 914 0.429 55 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 1423 1581 1580 0.092 55 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 1424 1051 1581 0.125 55 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 1425 1582 1051 0.034 30 1900 1 150 10001 0 0 0 0 1426 1324 1583 0.084 55 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 1427 1583 1051 0.231 55 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 1435 188 1582 0.856 30 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 1810 1420 578 2.983 80 2000 2 150 0 0 0 0 0 1811 370 1801 2.983 80 2000 2 150 0 0 0 0 0 1875 1481 226 1.273 30 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 1925 302 301 0.028 45 1900 1 150 -67 1 111 0 0 1945 301 371 0.212 45 1900 1 150 -68 1 111 0 0 2224 883 882 0.077 45 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 2348 1052 1051 0.097 30 1900 1 150 10001 0 0 0 0 88 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Speed First First Second Number Density Second Link ID From To Length Limit Capacity Signal Phase Releasing Releasing of Lanes (V/KM/Lane) Phase (mph) Releasing Direction Direction 2350 1054 51 0.051 30 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 2351 1055 1054 0.037 30 1900 1 150 10001 0 0 0 0 2361 371 59 0.58 30 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 2454 111 1133 0.45 30 1900 1 150 10001 0 0 0 0 2456 113 1055 1.566 30 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 2495 1167 913 0.803 55 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 2496 1168 1133 0.981 55 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 2567 579 371 0.313 45 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 2682 1306 1305 1.469 45 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 2683 882 1306 0.319 45 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 2684 1307 883 0.338 45 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 2696 1324 1323 0.174 55 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 2762 1386 1167 0.227 55 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 2763 1387 1386 0.363 55 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 2903 1480 302 0.49 45 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 2904 1480 1481 0.495 45 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 2905 1481 1307 0.063 45 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 2942 1506 1505 0.07 55 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 2967 1054 1168 0.276 55 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 2968 1505 1054 0.16 55 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 2969 1323 1506 0.855 55 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 89 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Speed First First Second Number Density Second Link ID From To Length Limit Capacity Signal Phase Releasing Releasing of Lanes (V/KM/Lane) Phase (mph) Releasing Direction Direction 2970 1523 1387 0.133 55 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 2971 1524 1523 0.041 55 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 2972 1133 1524 0.421 55 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 3052 1579 185 0.223 30 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 3053 186 1052 0.05 30 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 3054 1579 1580 0.315 55 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 3055 914 1579 0.429 55 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 3056 1580 1581 0.092 55 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 3057 1581 1051 0.125 55 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 3058 1051 1582 0.034 30 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 3059 1583 1324 0.084 55 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 3060 1051 1583 0.231 55 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 3068 1582 188 0.856 30 1900 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 3353 226 1481 1.273 30 1900 1 150 10001 0 0 0 0 90 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Table A.3 Intersection Control Type Counts Intersection Control Type # of Intersections Traffic Light 2 Stop Signs 7 Yield Signs 0 Table A.4 Intersection Control Summaries Node ID X-Coordinate Y-Coordinate Control Type Notes 301 244.246 209.738 Traffic Light T-intersection 371 246.2 209.016 Traffic Light T-intersection 1051 225.561 255.992 Stop Sign 2-way 1054 221.324 241.242 Stop Sign 2-way 1133 211.705 233.162 Stop Sign 1-way 1481 235.771 210.486 Stop Sign 1-way 1579 226.595 261.191 Stop Sign 1-way 91 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Table A.5 Summary of Signalized Intersections Initial Minimum Maximum Inter Inter Inter Green Green Green Optimization Cycle Cycle Cycle Signal Number Green Green Green Signal ID Time 1 Time 2 Time 3 Frequency Time Length Length Offset Phases Time 1 Time 2 Time 3 (sec) (sec) (sec) (sec)

(sec) (sec) (sec) (sec) (sec) (sec) 67 75 65 85 0 3 10 5 14 6 34.5 5.5 300 68 75 65 85 -3 3 10 5 14 6 34.5 5.5 300 Times listed in Seconds (sec).

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Appendix B - Evacuation Time Estimate Review Criteria Checklist 93 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Table B.1 - Evacuation Time Estimate Review Criteria Checklist Criterion Addressed Comments in ETE Analysis (Yes/No) 1.0 Introduction

a. The emergency planning zone (EPZ) and surrounding area should be Yes Section 1.0 described. Figure 1.1

b. A map should be included that identifies primary features of the site, including Yes major roadways, significant topographical features, boundaries of counties, Figure 1.1 and population centers within the EPZ.

c. A comparison of the current and previous ETE should be provided and Yes includes similar information as identified in Table 1-1, ETE Comparison, of Table 1.1 NUREG/CR-7002.

1.1 Approach

a. A discussion of the approach and level of detail obtained during the field Yes survey of the roadway network should be provided.

b. Sources of demographic data for schools, special facilities, large employers, Yes and special events should be identified.

Section 1.1

c. Discussion should be presented on use of traffic control plans in the analysis. Yes

d. Traffic simulation models used for the analyses should be identified by name Yes and version.

e. Methods used to address data uncertainties should be described. Yes 1.2 Assumptions

a. The planning basis for the ETE includes the assumption that the evacuation Yes Section 1.2 is ordered promptly and no early protective actions have been implemented.

b. Assumptions consistent with Table 1-2, General Assumptions, of Yes Section 1.2 NUREG/CR-7002 should be provided and include the basis to support their use. Table 1.2 1.3 Scenario Development

a. The ten scenarios in Table 1-3, Evacuation Scenarios, should be Yes Section 1.3 developed for the ETE analysis, or a reason should be provided for use of other scenarios. Table 1.3 94 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Criterion Addressed Comments in ETE Analysis (Yes/No) 1.3.1 Staged Evacuation

a. A discussion should be provided on the approach used in development of a No Because this ETE analysis for the CRN Site staged evacuation. considers an EPZ encompassing an approximate 2 mile radius around the proposed reactor center point location, staged and traditional keyhole evacuations are not appropriate for the CRN Site and have not been considered in this analysis.

Instead this analysis considers an evacuation of the entire EPZ for each evacuation scenario.

Refer to Section 1.3.1 1.4 Evacuation Planning Areas

a. A map of the EPZ with emergency response planning areas (ERPAs) should No The EPZ is an area encompassing an be included. approximate 2 mile radius around the proposed

b. A table should be provided identifying the ERPAs considered for each ETE No reactor center point location. During an calculation by downwind direction in each sector. emergency at the CRN Site, protective actions will be implemented consistently throughout the EPZ.

c. A table similar to Table 1-4, Evacuation Areas for a Staged Evacuation No For this reason, development of ERPA within the Keyhole, of NUREG/CR-7002 should be provided and includes the complete EPZ are not necessary to support site-specific evacuation of the 2, 5, and 10 mile areas and for the 2 mile area/5 mile protective action recommendation logic (i.e.,

keyhole evacuations. staged or keyhole based on wind direction) and ERPA are not considered in this analysis.

Refer to Section 1.4 Figure 1.1 2.0 Demand Estimation

a. Demand estimation should be developed for the four population groups, Yes including permanent residents of the EPZ, transients, special facilities, and Section 2.0 schools.

2.1 Permanent Residents and Transient Population

a. The US Census should be the source of the population values, or another Yes Section 2.1 95 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Criterion Addressed Comments in ETE Analysis (Yes/No) credible source should be provided.

b. Population values should be adjusted as necessary for growth to reflect Yes population estimates to the year of the ETE.

c. A sector diagram should be included, similar to Figure 2-1, Population by Yes Sector, of NUREG/CR-7002, showing the population distribution for Figure 2.1 permanent residents.

2.1.1 Permanent Residents with Vehicles

a. The persons per vehicle value should be between 1 and 2 or justification Yes Section 2.1 should be provided for other values.

b. Major employers should be listed. Yes Section 2.5 Table 2.7 2.1.2 Transient Population

a. A list of facilities which attract transient populations should be included, Yes Section 2.1.1 and peak and average attendance for these facilities should be listed. The source of information used to develop attendance values should be provided. Table 2.5

b. The average population during the season should be used, itemized and Yes Table 2.5 totaled for each scenario.

c. The percent of permanent residents assumed to be at facilities should be Yes Section 2.1.2 estimated.

d. The number of people per vehicle should be provided. Numbers may vary by Yes Section 2.1.2 scenario, and if so, discussion on why values vary should be provided.

e. A sector diagram should be included, similar to Figure 2-1 of NUREG/CR- Yes Figure 2.2 7002, showing the population distribution for the transient population.

2.2 Transit Dependent Permanent Residents

a. The methodology used to determine the number of transit dependent Yes Section 2.2 residents should be discussed

b. Transportation resources needed to evacuate this group should be Yes Section 2.2 quantified.

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c. The county/local evacuation plans for transit dependent residents should be No A county/local evacuation plan for transit-used in the analysis. dependent residents does not currently exist.

d. The methodology used to determine the number of people with disabilities Yes Section 2.2 and those with access and functional needs who may need assistance and do not reside in special facilities should be provided. Data from local/county registration programs should be used in the estimate, but should not be the only set of data.

e. Capacities should be provided for all types of transportation resources. Bus Yes Section 2.2 seating capacity of 50% should be used or justification should be provided for higher values.

f. An estimate of this population should be provided and information should be Yes Section 2.2 provided that the existing registration programs were used in developing the estimate.

g. A summary table of the total number of buses, ambulances, or other Yes Table 2.6 transport needed to support evacuation should be provided and the quantification of resources should be detailed enough to assure double counting has not occurred.

2.3 Special Facility Residents

a. A list of special facilities, including the type of facility, location, and average Yes Section 2.3 population should be provided. Special facility staff should be included in the total special facility population. Table 2.6

b. A discussion should be provided on how special facility data was obtained. Yes Section 2.3

c. The number of wheelchair and bed-bound individuals should be provided. Yes Section 2.3

d. An estimate of the number and capacity of vehicles needed to support the Yes Table 2.6 evacuation of the facility should be provided.

e. The logistics for mobilizing specially trained staff (e.g., medical support or Yes Section 2.3 security support for prisons, jails, and other correctional facilities) should be discussed when appropriate.

2.4 Schools

a. A list of schools including name, location, student population, and No Not Applicable transportation resources required to support the evacuation, should be 97 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Criterion Addressed Comments in ETE Analysis (Yes/No) provided. The source of this information should be provided.

b. Transportation resources for elementary and middle schools are based on No The presence of schools was researched during 100% of the school capacity. development of the ETE and it was determined that no schools currently exist within the EPZ.

c. The estimate of high school students who will use their personal vehicle to No evacuate should be provided and a basis for the values used should be provided Refer to Section 2.4

d. The need for return trips should be identified if necessary. No 2.5.1 Special Events

a. A complete list of special events should be provided and includes information Yes There were no special events identified that take on the population, estimated duration, and season of the event. place within the EPZ. However, it is assumed that

b. The special event that encompasses the peak transient population should Yes the Smokin the Water 4th of July Celebration in be analyzed in the ETE. Kingston, Tennessee would result in a peak transient population within the EPZ. Based on the

c. The percent of permanent residents attending the event should be Yes small permanent resident population in the EPZ, it estimated. is assumed that all permanent residents remain in the EPZ during this event and no reduction in permanent resident population is considered.

Refer to Section 2.5.1 2.5.2 Shadow Evacuation

a. A shadow evacuation of 20 percent should be included for areas outside the Yes Section 2.5.2 evacuation area extending to 15 miles from the NPP.

b. Population estimates for the shadow evacuation in the 10 to 15 mile area No Based on the reduced EPZ size, the population beyond the EPZ are provided by sector. estimates are available by sector from the EPZ boundary out to 15 miles was considered in the ETE.

Refer to Section 2.5.2

c. The loading of the shadow evacuation onto the roadway network should be Yes.

consistent with the trip generation time generated for the permanent resident Section 2.5.2 population.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Criterion Addressed Comments in ETE Analysis (Yes/No) 2.5.3 Background and Pass Through Traffic

a. The volume of background traffic and pass-through traffic should be based Yes Section 2.5.3 on the average daytime traffic. Values may be reduced for nighttime Table 2.9 scenarios.

b. Pass-through traffic should be assumed to have stopped entering the EPZ No An estimate of 90 minutes is used in this analysis.

about two hours after the initial notification.

2.6 Summary of Demand Estimation

a. A summary table should be provided that identifies the total populations and Yes Table 2.8 total vehicles used in the analysis for permanent residents, transients, transit Table 2.9 dependent residents, special facilities, schools, shadow population, and pass-through demand used in each scenario.

3.0 Roadway Capacity

a. The method(s) used to assess roadway capacity should be discussed. Yes Section 3.0 3.1 Roadway Characteristics

a. A field survey of key routes within the EPZ has been conducted. Yes Section 3.1

b. Information should be provided describing the extent of the survey, and Yes Section 3.1 types of information gathered and used in the analysis.

c. A table similar to that in Appendix A, Roadway Characteristics, of Yes Appendix A NUREG/CR-7002 should be provided.

d. Calculations for a representative roadway segment should be provided. Yes Appendix A

e. A legible map of the roadway system that identifies node numbers and Yes Figure 3.1 segments used to develop the ETE should be provided and should be similar to Figure 3-1, Roadway Network Identifying Nodes and Segments, of NUREG/CR-7002.

3.2 Capacity Analysis

a. The approach used to calculate the roadway capacity for the transportation Yes Section 3.2 network should be described in detail and identifies factors that are expressly used in the modeling.

b. The capacity analysis identifies where field information should be used in Yes Section 3.2 the ETE calculation.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Criterion Addressed Comments in ETE Analysis (Yes/No) 3.3 Intersection Control

a. A list of intersections should be provided that includes the total numbers of Yes Section 3.3 intersections modeled that are unsignalized, signalized, or manned by response personnel.

b. Characteristics for the 10 highest volume intersections within the EPZ are provided including the location, signal cycle length, and turn lane queue capacity.

c. Discussion should be provided on how time signal cycle is used in the Yes Section 3.3 calculations.

3.4 Adverse Weather

a. The adverse weather condition should be identified and the effect of Yes Section 3.4 adverse weather on mobilization should be considered.

b. The speed and capacity reduction factors identified in Table 3-1, Weather Yes Table 3.3 Capacity Factors, of NUREG/CR-7002 should be used or a basis should be provided for other values.

c. The study identifies assumptions for snow removal on streets and Yes Section 3.4 driveways, when applicable.

4.0 Development of Evacuation Times 4.1 Trip Generation Times

a. The process used to develop trip generation times should be identified. Yes Section 4.1

b. When telephone surveys are used, the scope of the survey, area of the Yes Section 1.1 survey, number of participants, and statistical relevance should be provided.

c. Data obtained from telephone surveys should be summarized. Yes Table 1.2 Section 2.2 Table 4.4 Table 4.5 Table 4.6

d. The trip generation time for each population group should be developed Yes Section 4.1 from site specific information.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Criterion Addressed Comments in ETE Analysis (Yes/No) 4.1.1 Permanent Resident and Transient Population

a. Permanent residents are assumed to evacuate from their homes but are Yes Section 4.1 not assumed to be at home at all times. Trip generation time includes the assumption that a percentage of residents will need to return home prior to evacuating.

b. Discussion should be provided on the time and method used to notify Yes Section 4.1 transients. The trip generation time discusses any difficulties notifying persons in hard to reach areas such as on lakes or in campgrounds.

c. The trip generation time accounts for transients potentially returning to Yes Section 4.1 hotels prior to evacuating.

d. Effect of public transportation resources used during special events where No Not applicable.

a large number of transients are expected should be considered.

Refer to Section 2.5.1.

e. The trip generation time for the transient population should be integrated Yes Section 4.1 and loaded onto the transportation network with the general public.

4.1.2 Transit Dependent Residents

a. If available, existing plans and bus routes are used in the ETE analysis. If No Not applicable.

new plans are developed with the ETE, they should have been agreed upon by the responsible authorities.

b. Discussion should be included on the means of evacuating ambulatory Yes Section 4.1.2 and non-ambulatory residents. Section 2.2

c. The number, location and availability of buses, and other resources Yes Section 4.1.2 needed to support the demand estimation are provided.

d. Logistical details, such as the time to obtain buses, brief drivers and Yes Section 4.1.2 initiate the bus route are provided.

e. Discussion should identify the time estimated for transit dependent Yes Section 4.1.2 residents to prepare and then travel to a bus pickup point, and describes the expected means of travel to the pickup point.

f. The number of bus stops and time needed to load passengers should be No Refer to Section 4.1.2 discussed.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Criterion Addressed Comments in ETE Analysis (Yes/No)

g. A map of bus routes should be included. Yes 4.1.2

h. The trip generation time for non-ambulatory persons includes the time to Yes Section 4.1.2 mobilize ambulances or special vehicles, time to drive to the home of residents, loading time, and time to drive out of the EPZ should be provided.

i. Information should be provided to support analysis of return trips, if No No return trips are necessary.

necessary.

4.1.3 Special Facilities

a. Information on evacuation logistics and mobilization times should be Yes Section 2.3 provided.

Table 4.11

b. Discussion should be provided on the inbound and outbound speeds. Yes Table 4.11

c. The number of wheelchair and bed-bound individuals should be provided, Yes Section 2.3 and the logistics of evacuating these residents should be discussed.

d. Time for loading of residents should be provided. Yes Table 4.11

e. Information should be provided that indicates whether the evacuation can Yes Section 2.3 be completed in a single trip or if additional trips are needed.

f. If return trips are needed, the destination of vehicles should be provided. No No return trips are necessary.

g. Discussion should be provided on whether special facility residents are No Not applicable as no return trips are necessary.

expected to pass through the reception center prior to being evacuated to their final destination.

h. Supporting information should be provided to quantify the time elements No Not applicable as no return trips are necessary.

for the return trips.

4.1.4 Schools

a. Information on evacuation logistics and mobilization times should be No Not Applicable provided.

b. Discussion should be provided on the inbound and outbound speeds. No The presence of schools was researched during

c. Time for loading of students should be provided. No development of the ETE and it was determined

d. Information should be provided that indicates whether the evacuation can No that no schools currently exist within the EPZ.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Criterion Addressed Comments in ETE Analysis (Yes/No) be completed in a single trip or if additional trips are needed.

e. If return trips are needed, the destination of school buses should be No Refer to Section 2.4 provided.

f. If used, reception centers should be identified. Discussion should be No provided on whether students are expected to pass through the reception center prior to being evacuated to their final destination.

g. Supporting information should be provided to quantify the time elements No for the return trips.

4.2 ETE Modeling

a. General information about the model should be provided and Yes Section 4.2 demonstrates its use in ETE studies.

b. If a traffic simulation model is not used to conduct the ETE calculation, No Not Applicable sufficient detail should be provided to validate the analytical approach used. All criteria elements should have been met, as appropriate.

4.2.1 Traffic Simulation Model Input

a. Traffic simulation model assumptions and a representative set of model Yes Section 4.2.1 inputs should be provided.

Appendix A

b. A glossary of terms should be provided for the key performance measures Yes Section 6.0 and parameters used in the analysis.

4.2.2 Traffic Simulation Model Output

a. A discussion regarding whether the traffic simulation model used must be Yes Section 4.3 in equilibration prior to calculating the ETE should be provided.

b. The minimum following model outputs should be provided to support Yes Section 4.2.2 review:

1. Total volume and percent by hour at each EPZ exit node. Appendix C

2. Network-wide average travel time.

3. Longest queue length for the 10 intersections with the highest traffic volume.

4. Total vehicles exiting the network.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Criterion Addressed Comments in ETE Analysis (Yes/No)

5. A plot that provides both the mobilization curve and evacuation curve identifying the cumulative percentage of evacuees who have mobilized and exited the EPZ.

6. Average speed for each major evacuation route that exits the EPZ.

c. Color coded roadway maps should be provided for various times (i.e., at 2, Yes Appendix A 4, 6 hrs., etc.) during a full EPZ evacuation scenario, identifying areas where long queues exist including level of service (LOS) E and LOS F conditions, if they occur.

4.3 Evacuation Time Estimates for the General Public

a. The ETE should include the time to evacuate 90% and 100% of the total Yes Table 4.13 permanent resident and transient population.

Table 4.14

b. The ETE for 100% of the general public should include all members of the Yes Statistical outliers related to trip generation time general public. Any reductions or truncated data should be explained. are addressed in Section 4.1

c. Tables should be provided for the 90 and 100 percent ETEs similar to No Because this ETE analysis for the CRN Site Table 4-3, ETEs for Staged Evacuation Keyhole, of NUREG/CR-7002. considers an EPZ encompassing an approximate 2 mile radius around the proposed reactor center point location, staged and traditional keyhole evacuations are not appropriate for the CRN Site and have not been considered in this analysis.

Instead this analysis considers an evacuation of the entire EPZ for each evacuation scenario.

Refer to Section 1.3.1

d. ETEs should be provided for the 100 percent evacuation of special Yes Table 4.11 facilities, transit dependent, and school populations.

Table 4.12 5.0 Other Considerations 5.1 Development of Traffic Control Plans

a. Information that responsible authorities have approved the traffic control No Not Applicable plan used in the analysis should be provided.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Criterion Addressed Comments in ETE Analysis (Yes/No)

b. A discussion of adjustments or additions to the traffic control plan that No Based on the low population of the EPZ, the affect the ETE should be provided. limited number of vehicles involved in the evacuation, the relative simplicity of the roadway network within the EPZ, and the absence of congestion observed during the traffic simulation modeling, the need to develop more detailed traffic control plans to support an evacuation is not considered necessary at this time.

5.2 Enhancements in Evacuation Time

a. The results of assessments for improvement of evacuation time should be No Based on the absence of congestion observed provided. during the traffic simulation modeling, the need to

b. A statement or discussion regarding presentation of enhancements to develop enhancements that may reduce local authorities should be provided. evacuation times would have little, if any, benefit.

5.3 State and Local Review

a. A list of agencies contacted and the extent of interaction with these Yes Section 5.3 agencies should be discussed.

b. Information should be provided on any unresolved issues that may affect No Not Applicable the ETE.

5.4 Reviews and Updates

a. A discussion of when an updated ETE analysis is required to be performed Yes Section 5.6 and submitted to the NRC. Section 5.7 5.5 Reception Centers and Congregate Care Centers

a. A map of congregate care centers and reception centers should be No The specific locations of reception centers have provided. not yet been identified.

b. If return trips are required, assumptions used to estimate return times for No Because of the absence of a school population buses should be provided. and the limited number of transit-dependent permanent residents, it is not anticipated that multiple trips will be necessary to evacuate the transit dependent population.

c. It should be clearly stated if it is assumed that passengers are left at the No It is not anticipated that multiple trips will be reception center and are taken by separate buses to the congregate care necessary to evacuate the transit dependent 105 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Criterion Addressed Comments in ETE Analysis (Yes/No) center. population. Therefore, the logistics of offloading passengers will not impact return trips to the EPZ or the evacuation time.

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Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Appendix C - Traffic Simulation Model Inputs and Outputs 107 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Table C.1 Loading Curves Duration Scenario Time Period (Min) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 15 10 9 5 0 7 7 2 0 10 167 2 15 66 64 89 79 56 53 79 72 66 275 3 15 111 109 210 209 96 95 195 192 111 245 4 15 106 108 158 172 98 97 151 158 106 244 5 15 137 139 131 144 131 132 124 134 137 303 6 15 142 142 77 77 138 138 71 72 142 316 7 15 117 116 41 40 112 112 39 36 117 291 8 15 76 75 19 17 74 73 15 16 76 252 9 15 39 38 18 20 29 29 20 17 39 214 10 15 33 33 16 12 41 41 12 12 33 214 11 15 11 11 5 7 9 9 7 4 11 193 12 15 11 11 10 8 13 13 8 9 11 187 13 15 3 3 1 0 5 5 1 0 3 182 14 15 5 5 2 1 2 2 0 0 5 186 15 15 3 3 0 1 4 3 0 0 3 182 16 15 4 4 0 0 4 4 2 1 4 141 17 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 15 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 108 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Table C.2 Data Input by Zone Scenario Zones 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 226 308 300 275 250 293 288 263 250 308 312 51 341 334 279 251 330 325 267 251 341 349 59 203 213 205 262 175 179 174 203 203 208 186 10 11 12 10 11 11 10 9 10 12 188 10 10 9 12 11 11 10 10 10 2709 111 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 12 Table C.3 Destination Nodes and Capacities Destination Capacities Destination Capacities Destination Capacities 180 3800 201 1900 219 1900 134 1900 27 1900 98 1900 216 1900 227 7600 25 1900 139 3800 209 3800 174 1900 223 1900 147 1900 129 1900 23 3800 125 1900 119 1900 167 1900 22 4000 197 1900 33 1900 132 4000 221 1900 166 1900 215 1900 225 8000 109 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Table C.4 Exiting Number of Vehicles by Hour by Exiting Node Time (Hour) Exiting Exiting Scenario From To Link Node 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 1 2495 913 135 128 179 152 120 115 162 153 135 636 0 1 504 892 43 52 104 141 34 37 88 111 43 45 0 1 1811 1801 94 86 159 131 82 74 144 134 94 97 1 2 2495 913 183 184 102 102 186 184 104 100 183 868 1 2 504 892 128 128 83 105 110 111 72 79 126 129 1 2 1811 1801 171 170 97 103 165 166 100 99 171 170 2 3 2495 913 39 38 20 20 38 39 22 17 39 752 2 3 504 892 28 29 17 16 26 27 13 13 30 30 2 3 1811 1801 37 38 16 14 40 42 18 16 37 39 3 4 2495 913 6 7 1 1 7 8 1 0 6 726 3 4 504 892 4 4 1 0 5 4 1 0 4 4 3 4 1811 1801 6 6 3 2 6 6 1 1 6 6 4 5 2495 913 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 90 4 5 504 892 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 5 1811 1801 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 110 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Table C.5 Exiting Percentage of Vehicles by Hour by Exiting Node Time (Hour) Exiting Exiting Scenario From To Link Node 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 1 2495 913 15.4% 14.7% 22.9% 19.3% 14.6% 14.1% 22.3% 21.2% 15.4% 17.7%

0 1 504 892 4.9% 6.0% 13.3% 17.9% 4.1% 4.5% 12.1% 15.4% 4.9% 1.3%

0 1 1811 1801 10.8% 9.9% 20.3% 16.6% 10.0% 9.1% 19.8% 18.5% 10.8% 2.7%

1 2 2495 913 20.9% 21.1% 13.0% 13.0% 22.7% 22.6% 14.3% 13.8% 20.9% 24.2%

1 2 504 892 14.6% 14.7% 10.6% 13.3% 13.4% 13.6% 9.9% 10.9% 14.4% 3.6%

1 2 1811 1801 19.6% 19.5% 12.4% 13.1% 20.1% 20.4% 13.8% 13.7% 19.6% 4.7%

2 3 2495 913 4.5% 4.4% 2.6% 2.5% 4.6% 4.8% 3.0% 2.4% 4.5% 20.9%

2 3 504 892 3.2% 3.3% 2.2% 2.0% 3.2% 3.3% 1.8% 1.8% 3.4% 0.8%

2 3 1811 1801 4.2% 4.4% 2.0% 1.8% 4.9% 5.2% 2.5% 2.2% 4.2% 1.1%

3 4 2495 913 0.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 20.2%

3 4 504 892 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1%

3 4 1811 1801 0.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 0.2%

4 5 2495 913 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5%

4 5 504 892 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

4 5 1811 1801 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

111 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Table C.6 Network-Wide Travel Time (Minutes)

Scenario 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2.57 2.99 2.59 2.57 2.57 3.90 2.59 2.59 2.84 9.22 112 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Table C.7 Total Vehicles Exiting the Network Scenario Time Period Duration (Min) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 15 9 8 5 0 6 6 2 0 9 167 2 15 51 53 72 66 46 39 66 56 51 275 3 15 109 105 186 187 94 92 171 164 110 245 4 15 103 100 179 171 90 89 155 178 102 244 5 15 134 132 132 154 133 129 136 132 134 303 6 15 141 146 78 85 137 138 82 82 141 316 7 15 119 119 47 51 112 112 42 44 119 291 8 15 88 85 25 20 79 82 16 20 88 252 9 15 44 45 19 22 35 38 25 18 44 214 10 15 33 31 17 11 44 39 11 12 33 214 11 15 15 18 8 9 14 20 8 7 15 193 12 15 12 11 9 8 11 11 9 9 12 187 13 15 4 5 3 1 8 9 1 0 4 182 14 15 4 4 2 1 1 1 0 0 4 186 15 15 4 3 0 1 5 4 0 0 4 182 16 15 4 5 0 0 4 4 2 1 4 141 17 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 15 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 Total 874 870 782 787 820 814 726 723 874 3592 113 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Figure C.1 Mobilization and Evacuation Curves 114 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Table C.8 Average Speeds for Major Evacuation Routes (mph)

Scenario Route 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Route 58 49 42 50 50 49 32 50 50 49 48 I-40 63 54 63 63 63 41 63 63 63 63 115 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Figure C.2 Time Lapse Simulation Graphics Simulation Screenshot 1 - Background Traffic 116 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Simulation Screenshot 2 - ~ 30 minutes after Order to Evacuate 117 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Simulation Screenshot 3 - ~ 90 minutes after Order to Evacuate 118 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Simulation Screenshot 4 - ~ 115 minutes after Order to Evacuate 119 Revision 0

Clinch River Nuclear Site Early Site Permit Application Part 5B, Emergency Plan Evacuation Time Estimate Simulation Screenshot - ~ 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> after Order to Evacuate 120 Revision 0