RA-14-033, TR-623, Rev. 0, Three Mile Island Generating Station, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates, Final Report. Page 4-1 Through Page 7-34

TR-623, Rev. 0, Three Mile Island Generating Station, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates, Final Report. Page 4-1 Through Page 7-34

ML14101A184
Person / Time
Site:	Three Mile Island
Issue date:	03/24/2014
From:	KLD Engineering, PC
To:	Exelon Generation Co, NRC/FSME, Office of Nuclear Material Safety and Safeguards, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
References
RA-14-033, TMI-14-048 TR-623-0
Download: ML14101A184 (77)

Text

4 ESTIMATION OF HIGHWAY CAPACITY The ability of the road network to service vehicle demand is a major factor in determining how rapidly an evacuation can be completed.

The capacity of a road is defined as the maximum hourly rate at which persons or vehicles can reasonably be expected to traverse a point or uniform section of a lane of roadway during a given time period under prevailing roadway, traffic and control conditions, as stated in the 2010 Highway Capacity Manual (HCM 2010).In discussing capacity, different operating conditions have been assigned alphabetical designations, A through F, to reflect the range of traffic operational characteristics.

These designations have been termed "Levels of Service" (LOS). For example, LOS A connotes free-flow and high-speed operating conditions; LOS F represents a forced flow condition.

LOS E describes traffic operating at or near capacity.Another concept, closely associated with capacity, is "Service Volume" (SV). Service volume is defined as "The maximum hourly rate at which vehicles, bicycles or persons reasonably can be expected to traverse a point or uniform section of a roadway during an hour under specific assumed conditions while maintaining a designated level of service." This definition is similar to that for capacity.

The major distinction is that values of SV vary from one LOS to another, while capacity is the service volume at the upper bound of LOS E, only.This distinction is illustrated in Exhibit 11-17 of the HCM 2010. As indicated there, the SV varies with Free Flow Speed (FFS), and LOS. The SV is calculated by the DYNEV II simulation model, based on the specified link attributes, FFS, capacity, control device and traffic demand.Other factors also influence capacity.

These include, but are not limited to: " Lane width" Shoulder width" Pavement condition* Horizontal and vertical alignment (curvature and grade)* Percent truck traffic* Control device (and timing, if it is a signal)" Weather conditions (rain, snow, fog, wind speed, ice)These factors are considered during the road survey and in the capacity estimation process;some factors have greater influence on capacity than others. For example, lane and shoulder width have only a limited influence on Base Free Flow Speed (BFFS') according to Exhibit 15-7 of the HCM. Consequently, lane and shoulder widths at the narrowest points were observed during the road survey and these observations were recorded, but no detailed measurements of lane or shoulder width were taken. Horizontal and vertical alignment can influence both FFS and capacity.

The estimated FFS were measured using the survey vehicle's speedometer and observing local traffic, under free flow conditions.

Capacity is estimated from the procedures of 1 A very rough estimate of BFFS might be taken as the posted speed limit plus 10 mph (HCM 2010 Page 15-15)Three Mile Island 4-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 the 2010 HCM. For example, HCM Exhibit 7-1(b) shows the sensitivity of Service Volume at the upper bound of LOS D to grade (capacity is the Service Volume at the upper bound of LOS E).As discussed in Section 2.3, it is necessary to adjust capacity figures to represent the prevailing conditions during inclement weather. Based on limited empirical data, weather conditions such as rain reduce the values of free speed and of highway capacity by approximately 10 percent. Over the last decade new studies have been made on the effects of rain on traffic capacity.

These studies indicate a range of effects between 5 and 20 percent depending on wind speed and precipitation rates. As indicated in Section 2.3, we employ a reduction in free speed and in highway capacity of 10 percent and 20 percent for rain and snow, respectively.

Since congestion arising from evacuation may be significant, estimates of roadway capacity must be determined with great care. Because of its importance, a brief discussion of the major factors that influence highway capacity is presented in this section.Rural highways generally consist of: (1) one or more uniform sections with limited access (driveways, parking areas) characterized by "uninterrupted" flow; and (2) approaches to at-grade intersections where flow can be "interrupted" by a control device or by turning or crossing traffic at the intersection.

Due to these differences, separate estimates of capacity must be made for each section. Often, the approach to the intersection is widened by the addition of one or more lanes (turn pockets or turn bays), to compensate for the lower capacity of the approach due to the factors there that can interrupt the flow of traffic. These additional lanes are recorded during the field survey and later entered as input to the DYNEV II system.4.1 Capacity Estimations on Approaches to Intersections At-grade intersections are apt to become the first bottleneck locations under local heavy traffic volume conditions.

This characteristic reflects the need to allocate access time to the respective competing traffic streams by exerting some form of control. During evacuation, control at critical intersections will often be provided by traffic control personnel assigned for that purpose, whose directions may supersede traffic control devices. The existing traffic management plans documented in the county emergency plans are extensive and were adopted without change.The per-lane capacity of an approach to a signalized intersection can be expressed (simplistically) in the following form: Qcap,m (360) (G Lm -( 3600 where: Qcap,m Capacity of a single lane of traffic on an approach, which executes movement, m, upon entering the intersection; vehicles per hour (vph)Three Mile Island 4-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 hm Mean queue discharge headway of vehicles on this lane that are executing movement, m; seconds per vehicle G Mean duration of GREEN time servicing vehicles that are executing movement, m, for each signal cycle; seconds L = Mean "lost time" for each signal phase servicing movement, m; seconds C = Duration of each signal cycle; seconds Pm = Proportion of GREEN time allocated for vehicles executing movement, m, from this lane. This value is specified as part of the control treatment.

m The movement executed by vehicles after they enter the intersection:

through, left-turn, right-turn, and diagonal.The turn-movement-specific mean discharge headway hm, depends in a complex way upon many factors: roadway geometrics, turn percentages, the extent of conflicting traffic streams, the control treatment, and others. A primary factor is the value of "saturation queue discharge headway", hsat, which applies to through vehicles that are not impeded by other conflicting traffic streams. This value, itself, depends upon many factors including motorist behavior.Formally, we can write, hm = fm(hsat, Fl, F2) ...where: hsat = Saturation discharge headway for through vehicles; seconds per vehicle F1,F2= The various known factors influencing hm fM() = Complex function relating hm to the known (or estimated) values of hsat, F 1 , F 2 , ...The estimation of hm for specified values of hsot, F 1 , F 2 , ... is undertaken within the DYNEV II simulation model by a mathematical model 2.The resulting values for hm always satisfy the condition:

hm - hsat 2 Lieberman, E., "Determining Lateral Deployment of Traffic on an Approach to an Intersection", McShane, W. &Lieberman, E., "Service Rates of Mixed Traffic on the far Left Lane of an Approach".

Both papers appear in Transportation Research Record 772, 1980. Lieberman, E., Xin, W., "Macroscopic Traffic Modeling For Large-Scale Evacuation Planning", presented at the TRB 2012 Annual Meeting, January 22-26, 2012 Three Mile Island 4-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 That is, the turn-movement-specific discharge headways are always greater than, or equal to the saturation discharge headway for through vehicles.

These headways (or its inverse equivalent, "saturation flow rate"), may be determined by observation or using the procedures of the HCM 2010.The above discussion is necessarily brief given the scope of this ETE report and the complexity of the subject of intersection capacity.

In fact, Chapters 18, 19 and 20 in the HCM 2010 address this topic. The factors, F 1 , F 2 ,..., influencing saturation flow rate are identified in equation (18-5)of the HCM 2010.The traffic signals within the EPZ and Shadow Region are modeled using representative phasing plans and phase durations obtained as part of the field data collection.

Traffic responsive signal installations allow the proportion of green time allocated (Pm) for each approach to each intersection to be determined by the expected traffic volumes on each approach during evacuation circumstances.

The amount of green time (G) allocated is subject to maximum and minimum phase duration constraints; 2 seconds of yellow time are indicated for each signal phase and 1 second of all-red time is assigned between signal phases, typically.

If a signal is pre-timed, the yellow and all-red times observed during the road survey are used. A lost time (L) of 2.0 seconds is used for each signal phase in the analysis.4.2 Capacity Estimation along Sections of Highway The capacity of highway sections -- as distinct from approaches to intersections

-- is a function of roadway geometrics, traffic composition (e.g. percent heavy trucks and buses in the traffic stream) and, of course, motorist behavior.

There is a fundamental relationship which relates service volume (i.e. the number of vehicles serviced within a uniform highway section in a given time period) to traffic density. The top curve in Figure 4-1 illustrates this relationship.

As indicated, there are two flow regimes: (1) Free Flow (left side of curve); and (2) Forced Flow (right side). In the Free Flow regime, the traffic demand is fully serviced; the service volume increases as demand volume and density increase, until the service volume attains its maximum value, which is the capacity of the highway section. As traffic demand and the resulting highway density increase beyond this "critical" value, the rate at which traffic can be serviced (i.e. the service volume) can actually decline below capacity ("capacity drop"). Therefore, in order to realistically represent traffic performance during congested conditions (i.e. when demand exceeds capacity), it is necessary to estimate the service volume, VF, under congested conditions.

The value of VF can be expressed as: VF = R x Capacity where: R = Reduction factor which is less than unity Three Mile Island 4-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 We have employed a value of R=0.90. The advisability of such a capacity reduction factor is based upon empirical studies that identified a fall-off in the service flow rate when congestion occurs at "bottlenecks" or "choke points" on a freeway system. Zhang and Levinson 3 describe a research program that collected data from a computer-based surveillance system (loop detectors) installed on the Interstate Highway System, at 27 active bottlenecks in the twin cities metro area in Minnesota over a 7-week period. When flow breakdown occurs, queues are formed which discharge at lower flow rates than the maximum capacity prior to observed breakdown.

These queue discharge flow (QDF) rates vary from one location to the next and also vary by day of week and time of day based upon local circumstances.

The cited reference presents a mean QDF of 2,016 passenger cars per hour per lane (pcphpl).

This figure compares with the nominal capacity estimate of 2,250 pcphpl estimated for the ETE and indicated in Appendix K for freeway links. The ratio of these two numbers is 0.896 which translates into a capacity reduction factor of 0.90.Since the principal objective of evacuation time estimate analyses is to develop a "realistic" estimate of evacuation times, use of the representative value for this capacity reduction factor (R=0.90) is justified.

This factor is applied only when flow breaks down, as determined by the simulation model.Rural roads, like freeways, are classified as "uninterrupted flow" facilities. (This is in contrast with urban street systems which have closely spaced signalized intersections and are classified as "interrupted flow" facilities.)

As such, traffic flow along rural roads is subject to the same effects as freeways in the event traffic demand exceeds the nominal capacity, resulting in queuing and lower QDF rates. As a practical matter, rural roads rarely break down at locations away from intersections.

Any breakdowns on rural roads are generally experienced at intersections where other model logic applies, or at lane drops which reduce capacity there.Therefore, the application of a factor of 0.90 is appropriate on rural roads, but rarely, if ever, activated.

The estimated value of capacity is based primarily upon the type of facility and on roadway geometrics.

Sections of roadway with adverse geometrics are characterized by lower free-flow speeds and lane capacity.

Exhibit 15-30 in the Highway Capacity Manual was referenced to estimate saturation flow rates. The impact of narrow lanes and shoulders on free-flow speed and on capacity is not material, particularly when flow is predominantly in one direction as is the case during an evacuation.

The procedure used here was to estimate "section" capacity, VE, based on observations made traveling over each section of the evacuation network, based on the posted speed limits and travel behavior of other motorists and by reference to the 2010 HCM. The DYNEV II simulation model determines for each highway section, represented as a network link, whether its capacity would be limited by the "section-specific" service volume, VE, or by the intersection-specific capacity.

For each link, the model selects the lower value of capacity.3 Lei Zhang and David Levinson, "Some Properties of Flows at Freeway Bottlenecks," Transportation Research Record 1883, 2004.Three Mile Island 4-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 4.3 Application to the TMI Study Area As part of the development of the link-node analysis network for the study area, an estimate of roadway capacity is required.

The source material for the capacity estimates presented herein is contained in: 2010 Highway Capacity Manual (HCM)Transportation Research Board National Research Council Washington, D.C.The highway system in the study area consists primarily of three categories of roads and, of course, intersections: " Two-Lane roads: Local, State" Multi-Lane Highways (at-grade)" Freeways Each of these classifications will be discussed.

4.3.1 Two-Lane Roads Ref: HCM Chapter 15 Two lane roads comprise the majority of highways within the EPZ. The per-lane capacity of a two-lane highway is estimated at 1,700 passenger cars per hour (pc/h). This estimate is essentially independent of the directional distribution of traffic volume except that, for extended distances, the two-way capacity will not exceed 3,200 pc/h. The HCM procedures then estimate Level of Service (LOS) and Average Travel Speed. The DYNEV II simulation model accepts the specified value of capacity as input and computes average speed based on the time-varying demand: capacity relations.

Based on the field survey and on expected traffic operations associated with evacuation scenarios:

• Most sections of two-lane roads within the EPZ are classified as "Class I", with "level terrain";

some are "rolling terrain".* "Class II" highways are mostly those within urban and suburban centers.4.3.2 Multi-Lane Highway Ref: HCM Chapter 14 Exhibit 14-2 of the HCM 2010 presents a set of curves that indicate a per-lane capacity ranging from approximately 1,900 to 2,200 pc/h, for free-speeds of 45 to 60 mph, respectively.

Based on observation, the multi-lane highways outside of urban areas within the EPZ service traffic with free-speeds in this range. The actual time-varying speeds computed by the simulation model reflect the demand: capacity relationship and the impact of control at intersections.

A Three Mile Island 4-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 conservative estimate of per-lane capacity of 1,900 pc/h is adopted for this study for multi-lane highways outside of urban areas, as shown in Appendix K.4.3.3 Freeways Ref: HCM Chapters 10, 11, 12, 13 Chapter 10 of the HCM 2010 describes a procedure for integrating the results obtained in Chapters 11, 12 and 13, which compute capacity and LOS for freeway components.

Chapter 10 also presents a discussion of simulation models. The DYNEV II simulation model automatically performs this integration process.Chapter 11 of the HCM 2010 presents procedures for estimating capacity and LOS for "Basic Freeway Segments".

Exhibit 11-17 of the HCM 2010 presents capacity vs. free speed estimates, which are provided below.Free Speed (mph): 55 60 65 70+Per-Lane Capacity (pc/h): 2,250 2,300 2,350 2,400 The inputs to the simulation model are highway geometrics, free-speeds and capacity based on field observations.

The simulation logic calculates actual time-varying speeds based on demand: capacity relationships.

A conservative estimate of per-lane capacity of 2,250 pc/h is adopted for this study for freeways, as shown in Appendix K.Chapter 12 of the HCM 2010 presents procedures for estimating capacity, speed, density and LOS for freeway weaving sections.

The simulation model contains logic that relates speed to demand volume: capacity ratio. The value of capacity obtained from the computational procedures detailed in Chapter 12 depends on the "Type" and geometrics of the weaving segment and on the "Volume Ratio" (ratio of weaving volume to total volume).Chapter 13 of the HCM 2010 presents procedures for estimating capacities of ramps and of"merge" areas. There are three significant factors to the determination of capacity of a ramp-freeway junction:

The capacity of the freeway immediately downstream of an on-ramp or immediately upstream of an off-ramp; the capacity of the ramp roadway; and the maximum flow rate entering the ramp influence area. In most cases, the freeway capacity is the controlling factor. Values of this merge area capacity are presented in Exhibit 13-8 of the HCM 2010, and depend on the number of freeway lanes and on the freeway free speed. Ramp capacity is presented in Exhibit 13-10 and is a function of the ramp free flow speed. The DYNEV II simulation model logic simulates the merging operations of the ramp and freeway traffic in accord with the procedures in Chapter 13 of the HCM 2010. If congestion results from an excess of demand relative to capacity, then the model allocates service appropriately to the two entering traffic streams and produces LOS F conditions (The HCM does not address LOS F explicitly).

Three Mile Island 4-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0

4.3.4 Intersections

Ref: HCM Chapters 18, 19, 20, 21 Procedures for estimating capacity and LOS for approaches to intersections are presented in Chapter 18 (signalized intersections), Chapters 19, 20 (un-signalized intersections) and Chapter 21 (roundabouts).

The complexity of these computations is indicated by the aggregate length of these chapters.

The DYNEV II simulation logic is likewise complex.The simulation model explicitly models intersections:

Stop/yield controlled intersections (both 2-way and all-way) and traffic signal controlled intersections.

Where intersections are controlled by fixed time controllers, traffic signal timings are set to reflect average (non-evacuation) traffic conditions.

Actuated traffic signal settings respond to the time-varying demands of evacuation traffic to adjust the relative capacities of the competing intersection approaches.

The model is also capable of modeling the presence of manned traffic control. At specific locations where it is advisable or where existing plans call for overriding existing traffic control to implement manned control, the model will use actuated signal timings that reflect the presence of traffic guides. At locations where a special traffic control strategy (continuous left-turns, contra-flow lanes) is used, the strategy is modeled explicitly.

Where applicable, the location and type of traffic control for nodes in the evacuation network are noted in Appendix K. The characteristics of the ten highest volume signalized intersections are detailed in Appendix J.4.4 Simulation and Capacity Estimation Chapter 6 of the HCM is entitled, "HCM and Alternative Analysis Tools." The chapter discusses the use of alternative tools such as simulation modeling to evaluate the operational performance of highway networks.

Among the reasons cited in Chapter 6 to consider using simulation as an alternative analysis tool is: "The system under study involves a group of different facilities or travel modes with mutual interactions invoking several procedural chapters of the HCM. Alternative tools are able to analyze these facilities as a single system." This statement succinctly describes the analyses required to determine traffic operations across an area encompassing an EPZ operating under evacuation conditions.

The model utilized for this study, DYNEV II, is further described in Appendix C. It is essential to recognize that simulation models do not replicate the methodology and procedures of the HCM -they replace these procedures by describing the complex interactions of traffic flow and computing Measures of Effectiveness (MOE) detailing the operational performance of traffic over time and by location.

The DYNEV II simulation model includes some HCM 2010 procedures only for the purpose of estimating capacity.All simulation models must be calibrated properly with field observations that quantify the performance parameters applicable to the analysis network. Two of the most important of Three Mile Island 4-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 these are: (1) Free flow speed (FFS); and (2) saturation headway, hsat. The first of these is estimated by direct observation during the road survey; the second is estimated using the concepts of the HCM 2010, as described earlier. These parameters are listed in Appendix K, for each network link.Volume, vph Drop Qmax R Qmax--Qs Density, vpm A Vf R vc HlowIKegimes mph Free Forced:_I I-!* I* I* I* I* I* I* I-- ---------------p Density, kf keopt kj vpm Figure 4-1. Fundamental Diagrams Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 4-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 5 ESTIMATION OF TRIP GENERATION TIME Federal Government guidelines (see NUREG CR-7002) specify that the planner estimate the distributions of elapsed times associated with mobilization activities undertaken by the public to prepare for the evacuation trip. The elapsed time associated with each activity is represented as a statistical distribution reflecting differences between members of the public.The quantification of these activity-based distributions relies largely on the results of the telephone survey. We define the sum of these distributions of elapsed times as the Trip Generation Time Distribution.

5.1 Background

In general, an accident at a nuclear power plant is characterized by the following Emergency Classification Levels (see Appendix 1 of NUREG 0654 for details): 1. Unusual Event 2. Alert 3. Site Area Emergency 4. General Emergency At each level, the Federal guidelines specify a set of Actions to be undertaken by the Licensee, and by State and Local offsite authorities.

As a Planning Basis we will adopt a conservative posture, in accordance with Section 1.2 of NUREG/CR-7002, that a rapidly escalating accident will be considered in calculating the Trip Generation Time. We will assume: 1. The Advisory to Evacuate will be announced coincident with the siren notification.

2. Mobilization of the general population will commence within 15 minutes after the siren notification.

3. ETE are measured relative to the Advisory to Evacuate.We emphasize that the adoption of this planning basis is not a representation that these events will occur within the indicated time frame. Rather, these assumptions are necessary in order to: 1. Establish a temporal framework for estimating the Trip Generation distribution in the format recommended in Section 2.13 of NUREG/CR-6863.

2. Identify temporal points of reference that uniquely define "Clear Time" and ETE.It is likely that a longer time will elapse between the various classes of an emergency.

For example, suppose one hour elapses from the siren alert to the Advisory to Evacuate.

In this case, it is reasonable to expect some degree of spontaneous evacuation by the public during this one-hour period. As a result, the population within the EPZ will be lower when the Advisory to Evacuate is announced, than at the time of the siren alert. In addition, many will engage in preparation activities to evacuate, in anticipation that an Advisory will be broadcast.

Thus, the time needed to complete the mobilization activities and the number of people remaining to evacuate the EPZ after the Advisory to Evacuate, will both be somewhat less than Three Mile Island 5-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 the estimates presented in this report. Consequently, the ETE presented in this report are higher than the actual evacuation time, if this hypothetical situation were to take place.The notification process consists of two events: 1. Transmitting information using the alert notification systems available within the EPZ (e.g. sirens, tone alerts, EAS broadcasts, loud speakers).

2. Receiving and correctly interpreting the information that is transmitted.

The population within the EPZ is dispersed over an area of 357 square miles and is engaged in a wide variety of activities.

It must be anticipated that some time will elapse between the transmission and receipt of the information advising the public of an accident.The amount of elapsed time will vary from one individual to the next depending on where that person is, what that person is doing, and related factors. Furthermore, some persons who will be directly involved with the evacuation process may be outside the EPZ at the time the emergency is declared.

These people may be commuters, shoppers and other travelers who reside within the EPZ and who will return to join the other household members upon receiving notification of an emergency.

As indicated in Section 2.13 of NUREG/CR-6863, the estimated elapsed times for the receipt of notification can be expressed as a distribution reflecting the different notification times for different people within, and outside, the EPZ. By using time distributions, it is also possible to distinguish between different population groups and different day-of-week and time-of-day scenarios, so that accurate ETE may be computed.For example, people at home or at work within the EPZ will be notified by siren, and/or tone alert and/or radio (if available).

Those well outside the EPZ will be notified by telephone, radio, TV and word-of-mouth, with potentially longer time lags. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of the EPZ population will differ with time of day -families will be united in the evenings, but dispersed during the day. In this respect, weekends will differ from weekdays.As indicated in Section 4.1 of NUREG/CR-7002, the information required to compute trip generation times is typically obtained from a telephone survey of EPZ residents.

Such a survey was conducted in support of this ETE study. Appendix F discusses the survey sampling plan and documents the survey instrument and survey results. The remaining discussion will focus on the application of the trip generation data obtained from the telephone survey to the development of the ETE documented in this report.Three Mile Island 5-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 5.2 Fundamental Considerations The environment leading up to the time that people begin their evacuation trips consists of a sequence of events and activities.

Each event (other than the first) occurs at an instant in time and is the outcome of an activity.Activities are undertaken over a period of time. Activities may be in "series" (i.e. to undertake an activity implies the completion of all preceding events) or may be in parallel (two or more activities may take place over the same period of time). Activities conducted in series are functionally dependent on the completion of prior activities; activities conducted in parallel are functionally independent of one another. The relevant events associated with the public's preparation for evacuation are: Event Number 1 2 3 4 5 Event Description Notification Awareness of Situation Depart Work Arrive Home Depart on Evacuation Trip Associated with each sequence of events are one or more activities, as outlined below: Table 5-1. Event Sequence for Evacuation Activities Prepare to Leave Work 2 2,3 -4 Travel Home 3 2,4 -- 5 Prepare to Leave to Evacuate 4 N/A Snow Clearance 5 These relationships are shown graphically in Figure 5-1.S S An Event is a 'state' that exists at a point in time (e.g., depart work, arrive home)An Activity is a 'process' that takes place over some elapsed time (e.g., prepare to leave work, travel home)As such, a completed Activity changes the 'state' of an individual (e.g. the activity, 'travel home'changes the state from 'depart work' to 'arrive home'). Therefore, an Activity can be described as an 'Event Sequence';

the elapsed times to perform an event sequence vary from one person to the next and are described as statistical distributions on the following pages.An employee who lives outside the EPZ will follow sequence (c) of Figure 5-1. A household Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 5-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 within the EPZ that has one or more commuters at work, and will await their return before beginning the evacuation trip will follow the first sequence of Figure 5-1(a). A household within the EPZ that has no commuters at work, or that will not await the return of any commuters, will follow the second sequence of Figure 5-1(a), regardless of day of week or time of day.Households with no commuters on weekends or in the evening/night-time, will follow the applicable sequence in Figure 5-1(b). Transients will always follow one of the sequences of Figure 5-1(b). Some transients away from their residence could elect to evacuate immediately without returning to the residence, as indicated in the second sequence.It is seen from Figure 5-1, that the Trip Generation time (i.e. the total elapsed time from Event 1 to Event 5) depends on the scenario and will vary from one household to the next.Furthermore, Event 5 depends, in a complicated way, on the time distributions of all activities preceding that event. That is, to estimate the time distribution of Event 5, we must obtain estimates of the time distributions of all preceding events. For this study, we adopt the conservative posture that all activities will occur in sequence.In some cases, assuming certain events occur strictly sequential (for instance, commuter returning home before beginning preparation to leave, or removing snow only after the preparation to leave) can result in rather conservative (that is, longer) estimates of mobilization times. It is reasonable to expect that at least some parts of these events will overlap for many households, but that assumption is not made in this study.Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 5-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 1 Af 2 Ada 3 Af 4 Residents Residents w 1 2 Alak W W.Households wait for Commuters 1 Households without Commuters and households who do not wait for Commuters 5 MW -W MW Residents, 1 Transients away from Residence 2 4 As 5 Ak Return to residence, then evacuate--b i Lw w Residents, Transients at Residence 1 2 5 Residents at home;transients evacuate directly 1 2 3, 5 ACTIVITIES EVENTS 1 -- 2 Receive Notification 2 -p- 3 Prepare to Leave Work 2, 3 .4 Travel Home 2, 4 5 Prepare to Leave to Evacuate Activities Consume Time 1. Notification

2. Aware of situation 3. Depart work 4. Arrive home 5. Depart on evacuation trip 1 Applies for evening and weekends also if commuters are at work.2 Applies throughout the year for transients.

Figure 5-1. Events and Activities Preceding the Evacuation Trip Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 5-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 5.3 Estimated Time Distributions of Activities Preceding Event 5 The time distribution of an event is obtained by "summing" the time distributions of all prior contributing activities. (This "summing" process is quite different than an algebraic sum since it is performed on distributions

-not scalar numbers).Time Distribution No. 1, Notification Process: Activity I -+ 2 In accordance with the 2012 Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Radiological Emergency Preparedness Program Manual, 100% of the population is notified within 45 minutes. It is assumed (based on the presence of sirens within the EPZ) that 87 percent of those within the EPZ will be aware of the accident within 30 minutes with the remainder notified within the following 15 minutes. The notification distribution is given below: Table 5-2. Time Distribution for Notifying the Public Elpe Tim Pecn of (Minutes)

Pouato Notfie 0 0%5 7%10 13%15 27%20 47%25 66%30 87%35 92%40 97%45 100%Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 5-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Distribution No. 2, Prepare to Leave Work: Activity 2 -> 3 It is reasonable to expect that the vast majority of business enterprises within the EPZ will elect to shut down following notification and most employees would leave work quickly. Commuters, who work outside the EPZ could, in all probability, also leave quickly since facilities outside the EPZ would remain open and other personnel would remain. Personnel or farmers responsible for equipment/livestock would require additional time to secure their facility.

The distribution of Activity 2 -> 3 shown in Table 5-3 reflects data obtained by the telephone survey. This distribution is plotted in Figure 5-2.Table 5-3. Time Distribution for Employees to Prepare to Leave Work Cumlaiv Elapsed~ ~ Tie Pecn 0 0%15 65%30 88%45 94%60 97%75 100%NOTE: The survey data was normalized to distribute the "Don't know" response.

That is, the sample was reduced in size to include only those households who responded to this question.

The underlying assumption is that the distribution of this activity for the "Don't know" responders, if the event takes place, would be the same as those responders who provided estimates.

Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 5-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Distribution No. 3, Travel Home: Activity 3 -+ 4 These data are provided directly by those households which responded to the telephone survey. This distribution is plotted in Figure 5-2 and listed in Table 5-4.Table 5-4. Time Distribution for Commuters to Travel Home 0 0%15 45%30 85%45 96%60 99%75 100%NOTE: The survey data was normalized to distribute the "Don't know" response Distribution No. 4, Prepare to Leave Home: Activity 2, 4 -> 5 These data are provided directly by those households which responded to the telephone survey. This distribution is plotted in Figure 5-2 and listed in Table 5-5.Table 5-5. Time Distribution for Population to Prepare to Evacuate 0 0%20 22%40 64%60 82%90 95%120 100%NOTE: The survey data was normalized to distribute the "Don't know" response Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 5-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Distribution No. 5, Snow Clearance Time Distribution Inclement weather scenarios involving snowfall must address the time lags associated with snow clearance.

It is assumed that snow equipment is mobilized and deployed during the snowfall to maintain passable roads. The general consensus is that the snow-plowing efforts are generally successful for all but the most extreme blizzards when the rate of snow accumulation exceeds that of snow clearance over a period of many hours.Consequently, it is reasonable to assume that the highway system will remain passable -albeit at a lower capacity -under the vast majority of snow conditions.

Nevertheless, for the vehicles to gain access to the highway system, it may be necessary for driveways and employee parking lots to be cleared to the extent needed to permit vehicles to gain access to the roadways.These clearance activities take time; this time must be incorporated into the trip generation time distributions.

This distribution is plotted in Figure 5-2 and listed in Table 5-6.The data in Table 5-6 are adapted from a survey conducted of households in the Susquehanna Steam Electric Station (SSES) telephone survey conducted in 2008. SSES is also in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, only 71 miles north-northwest of TMI. It is assumed that snowfall and snow removal times are similar in both EPZs.Table 5-6. Time Distribution for Population to Clear 6V-8" of Snow 0 0%15 40%30 73%45 82%60 90%75 94%90 95%105 97%120 99%135 100%NOTE: The survey data was normalized to distribute the "Don't know" response Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 5-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Mobilization Activities 100%24 0.2 on.S E 0 hA C.2-4l EL 0 80%60%40%20%-Notification-Prepare to Leave Work-Travel Home-Prepare to Leave Home-Clear Snow 0%0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 135 Elapsed Time from Start of Mobilization Activity (min)Figure 5-2. Evacuation Mobilization Activities Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 5-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 5.4 Calculation of Trip Generation Time Distribution The time distributions for each of the mobilization activities presented herein must be combined to form the appropriate Trip Generation Distributions.

As discussed above, this study assumes that the stated events take place in sequence such that all preceding events must be completed before the current event can occur. For example, if a household awaits the return of a commuter, the work-to-home trip (Activity 3 --> 4) must precede Activity 4 -+ 5.To calculate the time distribution of an event that is dependent on two sequential activities, it is necessary to "sum" the distributions associated with these prior activities.

The distribution summing algorithm is applied repeatedly as shown to form the required distribution.

As an outcome of this procedure, new time distributions are formed; we assign "letter" designations to these intermediate distributions to describe the procedure.

Table 5-7 presents the summing procedure to arrive at each designated distribution.

Table 5-7. Mapping Distributions to Events Apl Smig Algrih To Ditibto Obaie Even Defined Distributions 1 and 2 Distribution A Event 3 Distributions A and 3 Distribution B Event 4 Distributions B and 4 Distribution C Event 5 Distributions 1 and 4 Distribution D Event 5 Distributions C and 5 Distribution E Event 5 Distributions D and 5 Distribution F Event 5 Table 5-8 presents a description of each of the final trip generation distributions achieved after the summing process is completed.

5-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 5-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 5-8. Description of the Distributions Distrbto Desciption Time distribution of commuters departing place of work (Event 3). Also applies A to employees who work within the EPZ who live outside, and to Transients within the EPZ.B Time distribution of commuters arriving home (Event 4).Time distribution of residents with commuters who return home, leaving home C to begin the evacuation trip (Event 5).Time distribution of residents without commuters returning home, leaving home D to begin the evacuation trip (Event 5).Time distribution of residents with commuters who return home, leaving home E to begin the evacuation trip, after snow clearance activities (Event 5).Time distribution of residents with no commuters returning home, leaving to begin the evacuation trip, after snow clearance activities (Event 5).5.4.1 Statistical Outliers As already mentioned, some portion of the survey respondents answer "don't know" to some questions or choose to not respond to a question.

The mobilization activity distributions are based upon actual responses.

But, it is the nature of surveys that a few numeric responses are inconsistent with the overall pattern of results. An example would be a case in which for 500 responses, almost all of them estimate less than two hours for a given answer, but 3 say "four hours" and 4 say "six or more hours".These "outliers" must be considered:

are they valid responses, or so atypical that they should be dropped from the sample?In assessing outliers, there are three alternates to consider: 1) Some responses with very long times may be valid, but reflect the reality that the respondent really needs to be classified in a different population subgroup, based upon special needs;2) Other responses may be unrealistic (6 hours6.944444e-5 days <br />0.00167 hours <br />9.920635e-6 weeks <br />2.283e-6 months <br /> to return home from commuting distance, or 2 days to prepare the home for departure);

3) Some high values are representative and plausible, and one must not cut them as part of the consideration of outliers.The issue of course is how to make the decision that a given response or set of responses are to be considered "outliers" for the component mobilization activities, using a method that objectively quantifies the process.There is considerable statistical literature on the identification and treatment of outliers singly or in groups, much of which assumes the data is normally distributed and some of which uses non-Three Mile Island 5-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 parametric methods to avoid that assumption.

The literature cites that limited work has been done directly on outliers in sample survey responses.

In establishing the overall mobilization time/trip generation distributions, the following principles are used: 1) It is recognized that the overall trip generation distributions are conservative estimates, because they assume a household will do the mobilization activities sequentially, with no overlap of activities;

2) The individual mobilization activities (prepare to leave work, travel home, prepare home, clear snow) are reviewed for outliers, and then the overall trip generation distributions are created (see Figure 5-1, Table 5-7, Table 5-8);3) Outliers can be eliminated either because the response reflects a special population (e.g.special needs, transit dependent) or lack of realism, because the purpose is to estimate trip generation patterns for personal vehicles;4) To eliminate outliers, a) the mean and standard deviation of the specific activity are estimated from the responses, b) the median of the same data is estimated, with its position relative to the mean noted, c) the histogram of the data is inspected, and d) all values greater than 3.5 standard deviations are flagged for attention, taking special note of whether there are gaps (categories with zero entries) in the histogram display.In general, only flagged values more than 4 standard deviations from the mean are allowed to be considered outliers, with gaps in the histogram expected.When flagged values are classified as outliers and dropped, steps "a" to "d" are repeated.Three Mile Island 5-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0

5) As a practical matter, even with outliers eliminated by the above, the resultant histogram, viewed as a cumulative distribution, is not a normal distribution.

A typical situation that results is shown below in Figure 5-3.100.0% -90.0%80.0%70.0% -4.6 (160.0% /50.0%w2 40.0%73 30.0%E u 20.0%10.0%0.0%. ......Ll ul ul Lq Lq ul Lq Lq Ll LA Ln LA LA LA LA LA r-4 r-i N~ N m mn 4 4 LA LA w wO m~ -i'-4 Center of Interval (minutes)-Cumulative Data --Cumulative Normal Figure 5-3. Comparison of Data Distribution and Normal Distribution

6) In particular, the cumulative distribution differs from the normal distribution in two key aspects, both very important in loading a network to estimate evacuation times:> Most of the real data is to the left of the "normal" curve above, indicating that the network loads faster for the first 80-85% of the vehicles, potentially causing more (and earlier) congestion than otherwise modeled;> The last 10-15% of the real data "tails off" slower than the comparable "normal" curve, indicating that there is significant traffic still loading at later times.Because these two features are important to preserve, it is the histogram of the data that is used to describe the mobilization activities, not a "normal" curve fit to the data. One could consider other distributions, but using the shape of the actual data curve is unambiguous and preserves these important features;7) With the mobilization activities each modeled according to Steps 1-6, including preserving the features cited in Step 6, the overall (or total) mobilization times are constructed.

5-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 5-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 This is done by using the data sets and distributions under different scenarios (e.g. commuter returning, no commuter returning, no snow or snow in each). In general, these are additive, using weighting based upon the probability distributions of each element; Figure 5-4 presents the combined trip generation distributions designated A, C, D, E and F. These distributions are presented on the same time scale. (As discussed earlier, the use of strictly additive activities is a conservative approach, because it makes all activities sequential

-preparation for departure follows the return of the commuter; snow clearance follows the preparation for departure, and so forth. In practice, it is reasonable that some of these activities are done in parallel, at least to some extent -for instance, preparation to depart begins by a household member at home while the commuter is still on the road.)The mobilization distributions that result are used in their tabular/graphical form as direct inputs to later computations that lead to the ETE.The DYNEV II simulation model is designed to accept varying rates of vehicle trip generation for each origin centroid, expressed in the form of histograms.

These histograms, which represent Distributions A, C, D, E and F, properly displaced with respect to one another, are tabulated in Table 5-9 (Distribution B, Arrive Home, omitted for clarity).The final time period (15) is 600 minutes long. This time period is added to allow the analysis network to clear, in the event congestion persists beyond the trip generation period. Note that there are no trips generated during this final time period.5.4.2 Staged Evacuation Trip Generation As defined in NUREG/CR-7002, staged evacuation consists of the following:

1. Sub-areas comprising the 2 mile region are advised to evacuate immediately

2. Sub-areas comprising regions extending from 2 to 5 miles downwind are advised to shelter in-place while the 2 mile region is cleared 3. As vehicles evacuate the 2 mile region, sheltered people from 2 to 5 miles downwind continue preparation for evacuation

4. The population sheltering in the 2 to 5 mile region are advised to begin evacuating when approximately 90% of those originally within the 2 mile region evacuate across the 2 mile region boundary 5. Non-compliance with the shelter recommendation is the same as the shadow evacuation percentage of 20%Assumptions

1. The EPZ population in Sub-areas beyond 5 miles will react as does the population in the 2 to 5 mile region; that is they will first shelter, then evacuate after the 9 0 th percentile ETE for the 2 mile region 2. The population in the Shadow Region beyond the EPZ boundary, extending to approximately 15 miles radially from the plant, will react as they do for all non-staged Three Mile Island 5-15 KILD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 evacuation scenarios.

That is 20% of these households will elect to evacuate with no shelter delay.3. The transient population will not be expected to stage their evacuation because of the limited sheltering options available to people who may be at parks, on a beach, or at other venues. Also, notifying the transient population of a staged evacuation would prove difficult.

4. Employees will also be assumed to evacuate without first sheltering.

Procedure 1. Trip generation for population groups in the 2 mile region will be as computed based upon the results of the telephone survey and analysis.2. Trip generation for the population subject to staged evacuation will be formulated as follows: a. Identify the 90th percentile evacuation time for the Sub-areas comprising the2 mile region. This value, Tscen *, is obtained from simulation results. It will become the time at which the region being sheltered will be told to evacuate for each scenario.b. The resultant trip generation curves for staging are then formed as follows: i. The non-shelter trip generation curve is followed until a maximum of 20%of the total trips are generated (to account for shelter non-compliance).

ii. No additional trips are generated until time Tscen iii. Following time Tscen*, the balance of trips are generated:

1. by stepping up and then following the non-shelter trip generation curve (if Tscen* is < max trip generation time) or 2. by stepping up to 100% (if Tscen* is > max trip generation time)c. Note: This procedure implies that there may be different staged trip generation distributions for different scenarios.

NUREG/CR-7002 uses the statement"approximately 9 0 th percentile" as the time to end staging and begin evacuating.

The value of Tscen* is 2:00 for non-snow scenarios and 2:30 for snow scenarios.

ged trip generation distributions are created for the following population groups: a. Residents with returning commuters b. Residents without returning commuters c. Residents with returning commuters and snow conditions

d. Residents without returning commuters and snow conditions

3. Sta Figure 5-5 presents the staged trip generation distributions for both residents with and without returning commuters; the 9 0 th percentile two-mile evacuation time is 120 minutes for good weather and 150 minutes for snow scenarios.

At the 90th percentile evacuation time, 20% of the population (who normally would have completed their mobilization activities for an un-staged evacuation) advised to shelter has nevertheless departed the area. These people do not comply with the shelter advisory.

Also included on the plot are the trip generation distributions for these groups as applied to the regions advised to evacuate immediately.

Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 5-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Since the 9 0 th percentile evacuation time occurs before the end of the trip generation time, after the sheltered region is advised to evacuate, the shelter trip generation distribution rises to meet the balance of the non-staged trip generation distribution.

Following time Tscen*, the balance of staged evacuation trips that are ready to depart are released within 15 minutes. After Tscen +15, the remainder of evacuation trips are generated in accordance with the un-staged trip generation distribution.

Table 5-10 provides the trip generation histograms for staged evacuation.

5.4.3 Trip Generation for Waterways and Recreational Areas Appendix 11 of Annex E of the York County Emergency Plan states that the Pennsylvania Fish and Boat Commission establishes and operates waterway access control points as required.Attachment H of Appendix 11 of the York County Emergency Plan lists the following river access control points within the study area: New Cumberland Boat Access (North Access) along the west shore of the Susquehanna River at the end of Fifth Street in New Cumberland Borough;Hellam Township Access (South Access) along the west shore at River Drive South and Accomac Road; Pennsylvania Fish and Boat Commission Marietta Access Area along the east shore at the south end of Marietta Borough.Appendix 23 of Annex E of the York County Emergency Plan states that municipal emergency management agencies notify county, state, federal parks and recreational facilities, designated major industries and public utilities located within or serving the county portion of the EPZ.As indicated in Table 5-2, this study assumes 100% notification in 45 minutes. Table 5-9 indicates that all transients will have mobilized within 1 hour1.157407e-5 days <br />2.777778e-4 hours <br />1.653439e-6 weeks <br />3.805e-7 months <br /> and 45 minutes. It is assumed that this 1 hour1.157407e-5 days <br />2.777778e-4 hours <br />1.653439e-6 weeks <br />3.805e-7 months <br /> and 45 minute timeframe is sufficient time for boaters, campers and other transients to return to their vehicles and begin their evacuation trip.Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 5-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Trip Generation Distributions Employees/Transients

-Residents with Commuters

-Residents with no Commuters-Res with Comm and Snow -Res no Comm with Snow 100 0.0 8 4' 4 CL 60 20 0 410,'0'0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 135 150 165 180 195 210 225 240 255 270 285 300 315 Elapsed Time from Evacuation Advisory (min)Figure 5-4. Comparison of Trip Generation Distributions Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 5-18 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 5-9. Trip Generation Histograms for the EPZ Population for Un-staged Evacuation 1 15 4% 4% 0% 1% 0% 0%2 15 28% 28% 0% 8% 0% 1%3 15 39% 39% 2% 20% 0% 6%4 15 18% 18% 7% 25% 2% 13%5 15 6% 6% 14% 20% 5% 19%6 15 3% 3% 18% 11% 9% 17%7 15 2% 2% 18% 6% 14% 14%8 15 0% 0% 14% 5% 15% 10%9 15 0% 0% 11% 3% 14% 7%10 30 0% 0% 11% 1% 21% 8%11 30 0% 0% 4% 0% 12% 4%12 30 0% 0% 1% 0% 5% 1%13 30 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0%14 60 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%15 600 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%NOTE:* Shadow vehicles are loaded onto the analysis network (Figure 1-2) using Distributions C and E for good weather and snow, respectively.

• Special event vehicles are loaded using Distribution A.Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 5-19 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Staged and Un-staged Evacuation Trip Generation-Employees

/ Transients

-Residents with no Commuters-Res no Comm with Snow-Staged Residents with no Commuters-Staged Residents with no Commuters (Snow)-Residents with Commuters-Res with Comm and Snow-Staged Residents with Commuters-Staged Residents with Commuters (Snow)100 0 0.80 60 40 20 1000ýzooe 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 Elapsed Time from Evacuation Advisory (min)Figure 5-5. Comparison of Staged and Un-staged Trip Generation Distributions in the 2 to 5 Mile Region Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 5-20 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 5-10. Trip Generation Histograms for the EPZ Population for Staged Evacuation 1 15 0% 0% 0% 0%2 15 0% 2% 0% 0%3 15 0% 4% 0% 1%4 15 2% 5% 0% 3%5 15 3% 4% 1% 4%6 15 3% 2% 2% 3%7 15 4% 1% 3% 3%8 15 3% 1% 3% 2%9 15 69% 80% 3% 1%10 30 11% 1% 68% 78%11 30 4% 0% 12% 4%12 30 1% 0% 5% 1%13 30 0% 0% 2% 0%14 60 0% 0% 1% 0%15 600 0% 0% 0% 0%*Trip Generation for Employees and Transients (see Table 5-9) is the same for Un-staged and Staged Evacuation.

Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 5-21 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 6 DEMAND ESTIMATION FOR EVACUATION SCENARIOS An evacuation "case" defines a combination of Evacuation Region and Evacuation Scenario.The definitions of "Region" and "Scenario" are as follows: Region A grouping of contiguous evacuating Sub-areas that forms either a "keyhole" sector-based area, or a circular area within the EPZ, that must be evacuated in response to a radiological emergency.

Scenario A combination of circumstances, including time of day, day of week, season, and weather conditions.

Scenarios define the number of people in each of the affected population groups and their respective mobilization time distributions.

A total of 48 Regions were defined which encompass all the groupings of Sub-areas considered.

These Regions are defined in Table 6-1 through Table 6-3. The Sub-area configurations are identified in Figure 6-1. Each keyhole sector-based area consists of a central circle centered at the power plant, and three adjoining sectors, each with a central angle of 22.5 degrees, as per NUREG/CR-7002 guidance.

The central sector coincides with the wind direction.

These sectors extend to 5 miles from the plant (Regions R04 through R17) or to the EPZ boundary (Regions R18 through R33). Regions R01, R02 and R03 represent evacuations of circular areas with radii of 2, 5 and 10 miles, respectively.

Regions R34 through R48 are identical to Regions R02 and R04 through R17, respectively; however, those Sub-areas between 2 miles and 5 miles are staged until 90% of the 2-mile region (Region R01) has evacuated.

Each Sub-area that intersects the keyhole is included in the Region. There are instances when a small portion of a Sub-area is within the keyhole and the population within that small portion is low (500 people or 10% of Sub-area population, whichever is less). Under those circumstances, the Sub-area would not be included in the Region. There may also be a case wherein a Sub-area is not within the keyhole; however, it is completely surrounded by Sub-areas that are within the keyhole (see Regions R04, R13, R14, and R16 in Table 6-1, and Regions R18, R19, R20, R31, and R33 in Table 6-2).A total of 14 Scenarios were evaluated for all Regions. Thus, there are a total of 48 x 14 = 672 evacuation cases. Table 6-4 is a description of all Scenarios.

Each combination of Region and Scenario implies a specific population to be evacuated.

Table 6-5 presents the percentage of each population group estimated to evacuate for each Scenario.Table 6-6 presents the vehicle counts for each Scenario for an evacuation of Region R03 -the entire EPZ.The vehicle estimates presented in Section 3 are peak values. These peak values are adjusted depending on the Scenario and Region being considered, using Scenario and Region specific percentages, such that the average population is considered for each evacuation case. The Scenario percentages are presented in Table 6-5, while the regional percentages are provided in Table H-1. The percentages presented in Table 6-5 were determined as follows: Three Mile Island 6-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 The number of residents with commuters during the week (when workforce is at its peak) is the product of 59% (the number of households with at least one commuter -see Figure F-3) and 68% (the number of households with a commuter that would await the return of the commuter prior to evacuating

-see Figure F-5) which equals 40%. See assumption 3 in Section 2.3. It is estimated for weekend and evening scenarios that 10% of households with returning commuters will have a commuter at work during those times.Employment is assumed to be at its peak (100%) during the winter, midweek, midday scenarios.

Employment is reduced slightly (96%) for summer, midweek, midday scenarios.

This is based on the estimation that 50% of the employees commuting into the EPZ will be on vacation for a week during the approximate 12 weeks of summer. It is further estimated that those taking vacation will be uniformly dispersed throughout the summer with approximately 4% of employees vacationing each week. It is further estimated that only 10% of the employees are working in the evenings and during the weekends.Transient activity is estimated to be at its peak (100%) during summer evenings due to the large number of transients present at Hershey Park, Hershey Park Stadium, Giant Center and the large number of lodging facilities and campgrounds offering overnight accommodations.

Transient activity is estimated to be slightly less during the day on summer weekends and midweek at 70% and 50%, respectively.

During the winter, Hershey Park is closed. As such transient activity is significantly reduced to 20% during the week and 25% on weekends.

Due to the large number of lodging facilities and campgrounds, transient activity is estimated to be slightly higher during winter evenings at 40%.As noted in the shadow footnote to Table 6-5, the shadow percentages are computed using a base of 20% (see assumption 5 in Section 2.2); to include the employees within the shadow region who may choose to evacuate, the voluntary evacuation is multiplied by a scenario-specific proportion of employees to permanent residents in the shadow region. For example, using the values provided in Table 6-6 for Scenario 1, the shadow percentage is computed as follows: 20% x + 33,628 26%2 46,378 + 69,947) =One special event -an event at Hershey Park Stadium -was considered as Scenario 13. Thus, the special event traffic is 100% evacuated for Scenario 13, and 0% for all other scenarios.

It is estimated that summer school enrollment is approximately 10% of enrollment during the regular school year for summer, midweek, midday scenarios.

School is not in session during weekends and evenings, thus no buses for school children are needed under those circumstances.

As discussed in Section 7, schools are in session during the winter season, midweek, midday and 100% of buses will be needed under those circumstances.

Transit buses for the transit-dependent population are set to 100% for all scenarios as it is assumed that the transit-dependent population is present in the EPZ for all scenarios.

Three Mile Island 6-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 External traffic is estimated to be reduced by 60% during evening scenarios and is 100% for all other scenarios.

6-3 KLD Engineering, p.c.Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 6-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 6-1. Description of Evacuation Regions (Regions RO1-R17)2-Mile 5-Mile Full Region

Description:

Ring Ring EPZ Evacuate 2-Mile Radius and Downwind to 5 Miles Region Number: R01 R02 R03 R04I ROS I R06I R07 R08 R09 IRIO R1 l R12 R13 I R14 I R15I R16 R17 Wind Direction Toward: Sub-area Conewago (Dauphin)N/A N/A N/A N NNE NE ENE, E ESE SE I SSE I SSW SW wsw w WI NW' NNW Conewago East (York)Conewago West (York)Conoy (North)Conoy (South)Derry Dover East Donegal East Manchester (East)East Manchester (West)Elizabethtown Fairview (East)Fairview (West)Goldsboro Harrisburg 4 I Hellam Highspire Hummelstown Lewisberry Londonderry (South)Londonderry (North)Lower Allen Lower Paxton Lower Swatara (North)Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 6-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 RegonDecritin:

2-Mile S-Mile Full Region

Description:

__Ring Ring EPZ Evacuate 2-Mile Radius and Downwind to 5 Miles Ring Ring EPZ Region Number: R01 R02 R03 IR04 IRO5 R06 R07 R8 R09 RIO R10 11 1 2 R13 R14 IR15 R16 IR17 Wind Direction Toward: N/A N/A N/A N NNE NE ENE, E SE SE SSE SW WSW WNW, NNW SSW I W I WS I A/Sub-area Lower Swatara (South)Manchester Borough I I Manchester Township (East)Manchester Township (West)Middletown Mount Joy Mount Wolf New Cumberland Newberry (Northeast)

Newberry (Southeast)

Newberry (West)Paxtang Royalton South Hanover South Londonderry Springettsbury Steelton Swatara x I I Warrington West Donegal (North)West Donegal (South)VnrIr HWý,n xjx i i__Sub-area(s)

Shelter-In-Place Sub-area(s) not within Plume, but Evacuates because it is surrounded by other Sub-areas which are Evacuating Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 6-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 6-2. Description of Evacuation Regions (Regions R18-33)Region

Description:

Evacuate 5-Mile Radius and Downwind to the EPZ Boundary Region Number: R18 R19 R20 R21 R22 R23 R24 R25 R26 R27 R28 R29 R30 R31 R32 R33 Wind Direction Toward: N NNE NE ENE E ESE SE SSE S SSW SW WSW W WNW NW NNW Sub-area Conewago (Dauphin)Conewago East (York)Conewago West (York)Conoy (North)Conoy (South)Derry Dover East Donegal East Manchester (East)East Manchester (West)Elizabethtown X Fairview (East)Fairview (West)Goldsboro Harrisburg Hellam Highspire Hummelstown X Lewisberry Londonderry (South)Londonderry (North)Lower Allen X Lower Paxton Lower Swatara (North) X X Three Mile Island 6-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 I Region

Description:

Evacuate 5-Mile Radius and Downwind to the EPZ Boundary Region Number: RIB R19 R20 R21 R22 R23 R24 R25 R26 R27 R28 R29 R30 R31 R32 Wind Direction Toward: N NNE NE ENE E ESE SE SSE SW WSW W WNW NW Sub-area Lower Swatara (South)Manchester Borough Manchester Township (East)Manchester Township (West)Middletown Mount Joy Mount Wolf New Cumberland Newberry (Northeast)

Newberry (Southeast)

Newberry (West)Paxtang Royalton South Hanover South Londonderry Springettsbury Steelton x x Swatara Warrington West Donegal (North)West Donegal (South)York Haven SSub-area(s) not within Plume, but Evacuates beam It Is Ssurrounded b other Sub-areas which are Evacuati Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 6-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 6-3. Description of Evacuation Regions (Regions R34-R48)Region

Description:

Staged Evacuation Mile Radius Evacuates, then Evacuate Downwind to 5 Miles Region Number: R34 R35 R36 R37 R38 R39 R40 R41 R42 R43 R44 R45 R46 R47 R48 5-Mile WW Wind Direction Toward: N NNE NE ENE, E ESE SE SSE S SSW SW WSW W WNW, NNW Ring NW Sub-area Conewago (Dauphin)Conewago East (York) ___l l Conewago West (York)Conoy (North)Conoy (South)_______________________

Derry Dover East Donegal East Manchester (East)East Manchester (West)Elizabethtown Fairview (East) __l_Fairview (West)Goldsboro Harrisburg Hellam Highspire i l l__l Hummelstown Lewisberry Londonderry (South)Londonderry (North)Lower Allen Lower Paxton Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 6-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Region

Description:

Staged Evacuation Mile Radius Evacuates, then Evacuate Downwind to 5 Miles Region Number: R34 R35 R36 R37 R38 R39 R40 R41 R42 R43 R44 R45 R46 R47 R48 5-Mile WNW Wind Direction Toward: N NNE NE ENE, E ESE SE SSE S SSW SW WSW W NW NNW________________

Ring NW Sub-area Lower Swatara (North)Lower Swatara (South)Manchester Borough Manchester Township (East)Manchester Township (West)Middletown Mount Joy Mount Wolf New Cumberland Newberry (Northeast) mmm__Newberry (Southeast) m m m Newberry (West)Paxtang Royalton South Hanover South Londonderry Springettsbury Steelton Swatara Warrington West Donegal (North) _ _ -- m mm West Donegal (South)York Haven i --"miai Su-aeas)SelerInPlc Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 6-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure 6-1. TMI EPZ Sub-areas Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 6-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 6-4. Evacuation Scenario Definitions 1 Summer Midweek Midday Good None 2 Summer Midweek Midday Rain None 3 Summer Weekend Midday Good None 4 Summer Weekend Midday Rain None Midweek, Evening Good None 5Summer Weekend 6 Winter Midweek Midday Good None 7 Winter Midweek Midday Rain None 8 Winter Midweek Midday Snow None 9 Winter Weekend Midday Good None 10 Winter Weekend Midday Rain None 11 Winter Weekend Midday Snow None Winter Midweek, Evening Good None 12 Weekend Midweek, Evening Good Hershey Park 13 Weekend Stadium Event Single Lane Closure 1-83 14 Summer Midweek Midday Good Northbound to SR-581 Westbound to 1-81 Southbound 1 Winter assumes that school is in session (also applies to spring and autumn). Summer assumes that school is not in session.Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 6-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 6-5. Percent of Population Groups Evacuating for Various Scenarios 1 40% 60% 96% 50% 26% 0% 10% 100% 100%2 40% 60% 96% 50% 26% 0% 10% 100% 100%3 4% 96% 10% 70% 21% 0% 0% 100% 100%4 4% 96% 10% 70% 21% 0% 0% 100% 100%5 4% 96% 10% 100% 21% 0% 0% 100% 40%6 40% 60% 100% 20% 26% 0% 100% 100% 100%7 40% 60% 100% 20% 26% 0% 100% 100% 100%8 40% 60% 100% 20% 26% 0% 100% 100% 100%9 4% 96% 10% 25% 21% 0% 0% 100% 100%10 4% 96% 10% 25% 21% 0% 0% 100% 100%11 4% 96% 10% 25% 21% 0% 0% 100% 100%12 4% 96% 10% 40% 21% 0% 0% 100% 40%13 4% 96% 10% 100% 21% 100% 0% 100% 40%14 40% 60% 96% 50% 26% 0% 10% 100% 100%Resident Households with Commuters

....... Households of EPZ residents who await the return of commuters prior to beginning the evacuation trip.Resident Households with No Commuters

..Households of EPZ residents who do not have commuters or will not await the return of commuters prior to beginning the evacuation trip.Employees

..................................................

EPZ employees who live outside the EPZ Transients

..................................................

People who are in the EPZ at the time of an accident for recreational or other (non-employment) purposes.Shadow ......................................................

Residents and employees in the shadow region (outside of the EPZ) who will spontaneously decide to relocate during the evacuation.

The basis for the values shown is a 20% relocation of shadow residents along with a proportional percentage of shadow employees.

Special Events ............................................

Additional vehicles in the EPZ due to the identified special event.School and Transit Buses ............................

Vehicle-equivalents present on the road during evacuation servicing schools and transit-dependent people (1 bus is equivalent to 2 passenger vehicles).

External Through Traffic .............................

Traffic on interstates/freeways and major arterial roads at the start of the evacuation.

This traffic is stopped by access control 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> after the evacuation begins.Three Mile Island 6-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Table 6-6. Vehicle Estimates by Scenario 1 46,378 69,947 33,628 16,672 54,511 -153 164 27,380 248,833 2 46,378 69,947 33,628 16,672 54,511 -153 164 27,380 248,833 3 4,638 111,687 3,503 23,340 43,560 --164 27,380 214,272 4 4,638 111,687 3,503 23,340 43,560 -164 27,380 214,272 5 4,638 111,687 3,503 33,343 43,560 --164 10,952 207,847 6 46,378 69,947 35,029 6,669 55,020 -1,530 164 27,380 242,117 7 46,378 69,947 35,029 6,669 55,020 -1,530 164 27,380 242,117 8 46,378 69,947 35,029 6,669 55,020 -1,530 164 27,380 242,117 9 4,638 111,687 3,503 8,336 43,560 --164 27,380 199,268 10 4,638 111,687 3,503 8,336 43,560 --164 27,380 199,268 11 4,638 111,687 3,503 8,336 43,560 --164 27,380 199,268 12 4,638 111,687 3,503 13,337 43,560 --164 10,952 187,841 13 4,638 111,687 3,503 33,343 43,560 5,785 -164 10,952 213,632 14 46,378 69,947 33,628 16,672 54,511 -153 164 27,380 248,833 Note: Vehicle estimates are for an evacuation of the entire EPZ (Region R03)Three Mile Island 6-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 7 GENERAL POPULATION EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES (ETE)This section presents the ETE results of the computer analyses using the DYNEV II System described in Appendices B, C and D. These results cover 48 regions within the TMI EPZ and the 14 Evacuation Scenarios discussed in Section 6.The ETE for all Evacuation Cases are presented in Table 7-1 and Table 7-2. These tables present the estimated times to clear the indicated population percentages from the Evacuation Regions for all Evacuation Scenarios.

The ETE for the 2-mile region in both staged and un-staged regions are presented in Table 7-3 and Table 7-4. Table 7-5 through Table 7-7 define the Evacuation Regions considered.

The tabulated values of ETE are obtained from the DYNEV II System outputs which are generated at 5-minute intervals.

7.1 Voluntary Evacuation and Shadow Evacuation"Voluntary evacuees" are people within the EPZ in Sub-areas for which an Advisory to Evacuate has not been issued, yet who elect to evacuate. "Shadow evacuation" is the voluntary outward movement of some people from the Shadow Region (outside the EPZ) for whom no protective action recommendation has been issued. Both voluntary and shadow evacuations are assumed to take place over the same time frame as the evacuation from within the impacted Evacuation Region.The ETE for the TMI EPZ addresses the issue of voluntary evacuees in the manner shown in Figure 7-1. Within the EPZ, 20 percent of people located in Sub-areas outside of the evacuation region who are not advised to evacuate, are assumed to elect to evacuate.

Similarly, it is assumed that 20 percent of those people in the Shadow Region will choose to leave the area.Figure 7-2 presents the area identified as the Shadow Region. This region extends radially from the plant to cover a region between the EPZ boundary and approximately 15 miles. The population and number of evacuating vehicles in the Shadow Region were estimated using the same methodology that was used for permanent residents within the EPZ (see Section 3.1). As discussed in Section 3.2, it is estimated that a total of 409,780 people reside in the Shadow Region; 20 percent of them would evacuate.

See Table 6-6 for the number of evacuating vehicles from the Shadow Region.Traffic generated within this Shadow Region, traveling away from the TMI location, has the potential for impeding evacuating vehicles from within the Evacuation Region. All ETE calculations include this shadow traffic movement.7.2 Staged Evacuation As defined in NUREG/CR-7002, staged evacuation consists of the following:

1. Sub-areas comprising the 2 mile region are advised to evacuate immediately.

2. Sub-areas comprising regions extending from 2 to 5 miles downwind are advised to shelter in-place while the two mile region is cleared.Three Mile Island 7-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0

3. As vehicles evacuate the 2 mile region, people from 2 to 5 miles downwind continue preparation for evacuation while they shelter.4. The population sheltering in the 2 to 5 mile region is advised to evacuate when approximately 90% of the 2 mile region evacuating traffic crosses the 2 mile region boundary.5. Non-compliance with the shelter recommendation is the same as the shadow evacuation percentage of 20%.See Section 5.4.2 for additional information on staged evacuation.

7.3 Patterns of Traffic Congestion during Evacuation Figure 7-3 through Figure 7-11 illustrate the patterns of traffic congestion that arise for the case when the entire EPZ (Region R03) is advised to evacuate during the summer, midweek, midday period under good weather conditions (Scenario 1).Traffic congestion, as the term is used here, is defined as Level of Service (LOS) F. LOS F is defined as follows (HCM 2010, page 5-5): The HCM uses LOS F to define operations that have either broken down (i.e., demand exceeds capacity) or have exceeded a specified service measure value, or combination of service measure values, that most users would consider unsatisfactory.

However, particularly for planning applications where different alternatives may be compared, analysts may be interested in knowing just how bad the LOS F condition is. Several measures are available to describe individually, or in combination, the severity of a LOS F condition:

e Demand-to-capacity ratios describe the extent to which capacity is exceeded during the analysis period (e.g., by 1%, 15%, etc.);e Duration of LOS F describes how long the condition persists (e.g., 15 min, 1 h, 3 h); and e Spatial extent measures describe the areas affected by LOS F conditions.

These include measures such as the back of queue, and the identification of the specific intersection approaches or system elements experiencing LOS F conditions.

All highway "links" which experience LOS F are delineated in these figures by a thick red line; all others are lightly indicated.

Congestion develops rapidly around concentrations of population and traffic bottlenecks.

Figure 7-3 displays the traffic congestion within the major population centers 1 hour1.157407e-5 days <br />2.777778e-4 hours <br />1.653439e-6 weeks <br />3.805e-7 months <br /> after the Advisory to Evacuate (ATE). At this time, the majority of transients and employees have begun their evacuation trips, as well as about a third of the EPZ residents.

Congestion develops within the population centers of Hershey, Harrisburg, Elizabethtown, New Cumberland, Lower Allen, and the northern suburbs of York. The major evacuation routes giving access to these population centers are operating at LOS F including SR-24, SR -181, SR-230, SR-581, SR-921, US 322, US 422, and 1-83. The 2 mile region is clear of congestion due to the low population within 2 miles of TMI.Three Mile Island 7-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 At 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> after the ATE, Figure 7-4 displays fully-developed congestion throughout the study area with LOS F along every major evacuation route, with the exception of 1-76 due to the limited number of access ramps within the EPZ. At this time, over 90% of vehicles have begun their evacuation trips, external traffic has been stopped by access control, and approximately 50% of vehicles have successfully evacuated the EPZ. Vehicles in Hershey attempt to evacuate along US 422, US 322, SR-743, and SR-39. Vehicles in New Cumberland and Lower Allen attempt to access SR-581, US 15, and 1-83. 1-76 exhibits LOS E at worst since the limited capacity access ramps meter the evacuating traffic. Shadow evacuees from Harrisburg clog many of the EPZ major evacuation routes prolonging the evacuation of Paxtang, Highspire, Hummelstown, and Hershey. Traffic congestion in Elizabethtown is pronounced; however, the queues do not penetrate the 2 mile region. All evacuation routes servicing the southern portion of the EPZ evacuating towards York are operating at LOS F.At 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> after the ATE, as shown in Figure 7-5, congestion persists throughout the EPZ, although it has lessened in the past hour. At this time, nearly all vehicles have begun their evacuation trips, and 70% of vehicles have successfully evacuated the EPZ. Congestion is dissipating in Elizabethtown, within the outskirts of York, and within the city center of Harrisburg.

Pronounced congestion persists within Hersey, Lower Allen, and New Cumberland.

Queues along 1-83 northbound extend from the EPZ boundary for approximately 9 miles. All major evacuation routes exiting these population centers continue to operate at LOS F.At 4 hours4.62963e-5 days <br />0.00111 hours <br />6.613757e-6 weeks <br />1.522e-6 months <br /> after the ATE, Figure 7-6 shows congestion migrating away from TMI. At this time, all evacuees have begun their evacuation trips and just over 80% have successfully evacuated the EPZ. Congestion along US 422, US 322, 1-83, SR-581 and other major arterials slowly moves radially from the plant as bottlenecks clear. The major population centers -Hershey and Lower Allen -are still heavily congested.

Congestion south of TMI has almost completely dissipated.

Congestion within Elizabethtown has cleared.At 5 hours5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br /> after the ATE, as shown in Figure 7-7, congestion continues to migrate away from the plant. At this time, 82% of vehicles have successfully evacuated the EPZ. The EPZ south of TMI is completely clear of congestion.

Harrisburg is clear of congestion.

Congestion persists within Hershey, Lower Allen, and New Cumberland.

At 6 hours6.944444e-5 days <br />0.00167 hours <br />9.920635e-6 weeks <br />2.283e-6 months <br /> and 30 minutes after the ATE (Figure 7-8) the EPZ is predominantly clear of traffic congestion with the exception of Hershey and the 1-283 on-ramp from SR-283. At this time, 93%of vehicles have successfully evacuated the EPZ. Congestion persists in the northeast on arterials leaving Hershey -SR-39, SR-743, US 422, and US 322. The congestion to the northeast is entirely due to the high transient population at Hershey Park. Transient vehicles mix with the resident vehicles trying to evacuate the area on the aforementioned limited evacuation routes.At 8 hours9.259259e-5 days <br />0.00222 hours <br />1.322751e-5 weeks <br />3.044e-6 months <br /> after the ATE, congestion along 1-283 has cleared, as shown in Figure 7-9. At this time, 97% of vehicles have successfully evacuated the EPZ. Congestion persists, although slightly dissipated, in Hershey due to the large number of evacuees and limited evacuation routes.At 9 hours1.041667e-4 days <br />0.0025 hours <br />1.488095e-5 weeks <br />3.4245e-6 months <br /> after the ATE, congestion within Hershey has nearly cleared as evacuees attempt to Three Mile Island 7-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 access 1-78 via SR-743 and 1-76 via US 322 and SR-72. US 422 and US 322 continue to exhibit LOS F conditions due to the heavy vehicle demand relative to the limited roadway capacity.Finally, at 9 hours1.041667e-4 days <br />0.0025 hours <br />1.488095e-5 weeks <br />3.4245e-6 months <br /> and 30 minutes after the ATE, as shown in Figure 7-11, the last road within the EPZ to exhibit traffic congestion is US 322. The EPZ completely clears of congestion 10 minutes later. The last of the traffic congestion in the study area clears at 10 hours1.157407e-4 days <br />0.00278 hours <br />1.653439e-5 weeks <br />3.805e-6 months <br /> and 15 minutes after the ATE.7.4 Evacuation Rates Evacuation is a continuous process, as implied by Figure 7-12 through Figure 7-25. These figures indicate the rate at which traffic flows out of the indicated areas for the case of an evacuation of the full EPZ (Region R03) under the indicated conditions.

One figure is presented for each scenario considered.

As indicated in Figure 7-12, there is typically a long "tail" to these distributions.

Vehicles begin to evacuate an area slowly at first, as people respond to the ATE at different rates. Then traffic demand builds rapidly (slopes of curves increase).

When the system becomes congested, traffic exits the EPZ at rates somewhat below capacity until some evacuation routes have cleared. As more routes clear, the aggregate rate of egress slows since many vehicles have already left the EPZ. Towards the end of the process, relatively few evacuation routes service the remaining demand.The rate of egress for the 2 mile Region remains relatively constant throughout the course of the evacuation.

As discussed in Section 7.3, there is no congestion in the 2 mile region. The rate of egress is essentially equal to the mobilization time for the population in this area. The long "tail" of the evacuation plot is due to the relatively few stragglers within 2 miles who take significantly longer to mobilize.Conversely, the rate of egress for the 5 mile Region and the Entire EPZ decreases sharply after the first 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> of the evacuation as nearly every route beyond 2 miles from the plant experiences pronounced congestion.

The long "tail" for these curves is due to the heavy congestion resulting from a surplus of demand relative to available roadway capacity.Ideally, it would be desirable to fully saturate all evacuation routes equally so that all will service traffic near capacity levels and all will clear at the same time. For this ideal situation, all curves would retain the same slope until the end -thus minimizing evacuation time. In reality, this ideal is generally unattainable reflecting the spatial variation in population density, mobilization rates and in highway capacity over the EPZ.7.5 Evacuation Time Estimate (ETE) Results Table 7-1 and Table 7-2 present the ETE values for all 48 Evacuation Regions and all 14 Evacuation Scenarios.

Table 7-3 and Table 7-4 present the ETE values for the 2-Mile region for both staged and un-staged keyhole regions downwind to 5 miles. The tables are organized as follows: Three Mile Island 7-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Tabl Content ETE represents the elapsed time required for 90 percent of the 7-1 population within a Region, to evacuate from that Region. All Scenarios are considered, as well as Staged Evacuation scenarios.

ETE represents the elapsed time required for 100 percent of the 7-2 population within a Region, to evacuate from that Region. All Scenarios are considered, as well as Staged Evacuation scenarios.

ETE represents the elapsed time required for 90 percent of the 7-3 population within the 2-mile Region, to evacuate from that Region with both Concurrent and Staged Evacuations.

ETE represents the elapsed time required for 100 percent of the 7-4 population within the 2-mile Region, to evacuate from that Region with both Concurrent and Staged Evacuations.

The animation snapshots described above reflect the ETE statistics for the concurrent (un-staged) evacuation scenarios and regions, which are displayed in Figure 7-3 through Figure 7-11. There is no congestion within the 2-mile region. There is congestion between 2 and 5 miles; however, this congestion clears significantly earlier than the congestion beyond 5 miles.This is reflected in the ETE statistics: " The 9 0 th percentile ETE for Region R01 (2-mile region) are approximately 30 to 90 minutes shorter than Region R02 (5-mile region) and generally range between 1:45 (hr:min) and 2:05 (higher for snow). These ETE are essentially the time needed to mobilize 90 percent of the population within the 2-mile region.* The 9 0 th percentile ETE for Region R02 (5-mile region) are on average approximately 2Y2 hours shorter than for Region R03 (full EPZ) due to the prevalence of traffic congestion beyond the 5-mile radius, and generally range between 2:15 and 3:30 (higher for snow)." The 9 0 th percentile ETE for Region R03 (full EPZ) generally range between 3:45 and 6:35 for non-special scenarios.

Comparison of Scenarios 5 and 13 in Table 7-1 indicates that the Special Event -an event at Hershey Park Stadium -has a significant impact on the 90th percentile ETE for regions involving the evacuation of Derry (where Hershey Park is located).

The additional 5,785 vehicles present for the special event exacerbate the extensive traffic congestion in the area. The resulting congestion increases the 90th percentile ETE by as much as 1 hour1.157407e-5 days <br />2.777778e-4 hours <br />1.653439e-6 weeks <br />3.805e-7 months <br />. The congestion also increases the 100th percentile ETE by as much as 1 hour1.157407e-5 days <br />2.777778e-4 hours <br />1.653439e-6 weeks <br />3.805e-7 months <br /> and 15 minutes.Comparison of Scenarios 1 and 14 in Table 7-1 indicates that the roadway closure -one lane northbound on 1-83 from the junction with SR-382 to the junction with SR-581, one lane westbound on SR-581 from the junction with 1-83 to the junction with 1-81 southbound, and one lane southbound on 1-81 from the junction with SR-581 to the end of the study area -does have a material impact on 9 0 th percentile ETE for keyhole regions with wind clockwise from the south through the northwest downwind to 5 miles (Regions RiO through R16), with up to 55 Three Mile Island 7-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 minute increases in ETE. The 100th percentile ETE increase by as much as 35 minutes. Wind towards these directions carries the plume over Newberry and surrounding areas, which rely heavily on 1-83 and SR-581. With a lane closed on 1-83 and SR-581, the capacity is reduced to half, increasing congestion and prolonging ETE.The results of the roadway impact scenario indicate that events such as adverse weather or traffic accidents which close a lane on a major evacuation route, could impact ETE. State and local police could consider traffic management tactics such as using the shoulder of the roadway as a travel lane or re-routing of traffic along other evacuation routes to avoid overwhelming any of the major evacuation routes. All efforts should be made to remove the blockage, particularly within the first 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> of the evacuation.

7.6 Staged Evacuation Results Table 7-3 and Table 7-4 present a comparison of the ETE compiled for the concurrent (un-staged) and staged evacuation studies. Note that Regions R34 through R48 are the same geographic areas as Regions R02 and R04 through R17, respectively.

The times shown in Table 7-3 and Table 7-4 are when the 2-mile region is 90% clear and 100% clear, respectively.

To determine whether the staged evacuation strategy is worthy of consideration, it must be shown that the ETE for the 2-mile region can be reduced without significantly affecting the exposure of those in the region between 2 miles and 5 miles. In all cases, as shown in these tables, the ETE for the 2 mile region is unchanged when a staged evacuation is implemented.

The reason for this is that the congestion within the 5-mile region does not extend upstream to the extent that it penetrates to within the 2-mile region. Consequently, the impedance, due to this congestion within the 5-mile region, to evacuees from within the 2-mile region is not sufficient to materially influence the 9 0 th or 1 0 0 th percentile ETE for the 2-mile region.To determine the effect of staged evacuation on residents outside the 2-mile Region, Regions R02 and R04 through R17 are compared to Regions R34 through R48, respectively, in Table 7-1.The ETE for most keyholes increases when staging evacuation with some regions increasing by up to 55 minutes. As shown in Figure 5-5, staging the evacuation causes a significant "spike" (sharp increase) in mobilization (trip-generation rate) of evacuating vehicles:

nearly 80 percent of the evacuating vehicles between 2 and 5 miles who have sheltered in place while residents within 2 miles evacuated, begin their evacuation trip over a 15 minute timeframe.

This spike oversaturates evacuation routes, causing significant traffic congestion, rerouting and prolonged ETE.In summary, the staged evacuation protective action strategy provides no benefit to the 2-mile Region and adversely impacts many evacuees located beyond 2 miles from TMI. Staged evacuation is not recommended.

7.7 Guidance on Using ETE Tables The user first determines the percentile of population for which the ETE is sought (The NRC guidance calls for the 90th percentile).

The applicable value of ETE within the chosen Table may Three Mile Island 7-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 then be identified using the following procedure:

1. Identify the applicable Scenario:* Season" Summer" Winter (also Autumn and Spring)" Day of Week" Midweek" Weekend* Time of Day" Midday" Evening" Weather Condition" Good Weather" Rain" Snow" Special Event" Hershey Park Stadium Event" Road Closure (One lane on 1-83 northbound, one lane on SR-581 westbound, and one lane on 1-81 southbound are closed)" Evacuation Staging" No, Staged Evacuation is not considered" Yes, Staged Evacuation is considered While these Scenarios are designed, in aggregate, to represent conditions throughout the year, some further clarification is warranted:

• The conditions of a summer evening (either midweek or weekend) and rain are not explicitly identified in the Tables. For these conditions, Scenarios (2) and (4) apply.0 The conditions of a winter evening (either midweek or weekend) and rain are not explicitly identified in the Tables. For these conditions, Scenarios (7) and (10) for rain apply.0 The conditions of a winter evening (either midweek or weekend) and snow are not explicitly identified in the Tables. For these conditions, Scenarios (8) and (11) for snow apply.* The seasons are defined as follows: " Summer assumes that public schools are not in session." Winter (includes Spring and Autumn) considers that public schools are in session.* Time of Day: Midday implies the time over which most commuters are at work or are travelling to/from work.2. With the desired percentile ETE and Scenario identified, now identify the Evacuation Region:* Determine the projected azimuth direction of the plume (coincident with the wind direction).

This direction is expressed in terms of compass orientation:

towards N, NNE, NE, ...Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 7-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0

• Determine the distance that the Evacuation Region will extend from the nuclear power plant. The applicable distances and their associated candidate Regions are given below:* 2 Miles (Region RO1)* To 5 Miles (Region R02, and R04 through R17)* To EPZ Boundary (Regions R03, R18 through R33)* Enter Table 7-5 through Table 7-7 and identify the applicable group of candidate Regions based on the distance that the selected Region extends from the TMI.Select the Evacuation Region identifier in that row, based on the azimuth direction of the plume, from the first column of the Table.3. Determine the ETE Table based on the percentile selected.

Then, for the Scenario identified in Step 1 and the Region identified in Step 2, proceed as follows:* The columns of Table 7-1 through Table 7-4 are labeled with the Scenario numbers.Identify the proper column in the selected Table using the Scenario number defined in Step 1.* Identify the row in the table that provides ETE values for the Region identified in Step 2.* The unique data cell defined by the column and row so determined contains the desired value of ETE expressed in Hours:Minutes.

Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 7-8 KILD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Example It is desired to identify the ETE for the following conditions:

• Sunday, August 10th at 4:00 AM.* It is raining.* Wind direction is toward the northeast (NE).* Wind speed is such that the distance to be evacuated is judged to be a 5-mile radius and downwind to 10 miles (to EPZ boundary).

• The desired ETE is that value needed to evacuate 90 percent of the population from within the impacted Region.* A staged evacuation is not desired.Table 7-1 is applicable because the 90th percentile ETE is desired. Proceed as follows: 1. Identify the Scenario as summer, weekend, evening and raining. Entering Table 7-1, it is seen that there is no match for these descriptors.

However, the clarification given above assigns this combination of circumstances to Scenario 4.2. Enter Table 7-6 and locate the Region described as "Evacuate 5-Mile Radius and Downwind to the EPZ Boundary" for wind direction toward the NE and read Region R20.3. Enter Table 7-1 to locate the data cell containing the value of ETE for Scenario 4 and Region R20. This data cell is in column (4) and in the row for Region R20; it contains the ETE value of 6:00.Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 7-9 KILD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 7-1. Time to Clear the Indicated Area of 90 Percent of the Affected Population Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer Midweek Midweek Midweek Midweek Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend weekend dweek Midweek Weekend Weekend Weekend Scenario: ( () (3) (4)(5)6) (7) (8) (9) (10 (]11) (12) (13 (4 Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Evening Midday Region Good Rain Good Rain Good Good Rain Snow Good Rain Snow Good Special Roadway Weather Weather Weather Weather I S Weather Weather Event Impact Entire 2-Mile Region, S-Mile Region, and EPZ R01 2:05 2:05 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:05 2:05 2:45 1:45 1:45 2:30 1:45 1:45 2:05 R02 3:05 3:15 2:55 3:10 2:15 3:10 3:20 3:50 2:50 3:15 3:35 2:20 2:15 3:30 R03 5:45 6:35 5:10 5:35 6:00 4:55 5:25 6:20 3:50 4:25 4:55 3:45 6:50 5:55 2-Mile Region and Keyhole to 5 Miles R04 2:55 3:00 2:30 2:40 2:00 2:45 3:10 3:30 2:25 2:40 3:15 2:05 2:05 3:00 ROS 2:05 2:05 2:00 2:00 1:55 2:05 2:05 2:20 2:00 2:00 2:15 1:55 1:55 2:05 R06 2:00 2:05 2:00 2:00 2:00 2:00 2:05 2:10 2:00 2:00 2:10 2:00 2:00 2:00 R07 2:05 2:05 2:00 2:00 1:55 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:00 2:00 2:10 1:55 1:55 2:05 R08 2:05 2:05 1:50 1:50 1:45 2:05 2:05 2:50 1:50 1:50 2:30 1:50 1:45 2:05 R09 2:05 2:05 1:50 1:50 1:45 2:05 2:10 2:50 1:50 1:50 2:30 1:50 1:45 2:05 RIO 2:05 2:05 1:55 2:00 1:55 2:05 2:05 2:30 1:55 2:00 2:15 1:55 1:55 2:35 R11 2:05 2:05 1:55 2:00 1:55 2:05 2:05 2:35 1:55 2:00 2:20 1:55 1:55 2:30 R12 2:05 2:05 1:55 2:00 1:55 2:05 2:05 2:35 1:55 2:00 2:15 1:55 1:55 2:35 R13 2:35 2:45 2:30 2:35 2:05 2:30 2:45 3:10 2:25 2:35 3:00 2:00 2:05 3:30 R14 2:35 2:40 2:25 2:35 2:10 2:35 2:45 3:10 2:20 2:30 2:55 2:10 2:10 3:30 R15 3:20 3:40 3:10 3:40 2:25 3:15 3:40 3:55 3:10 3:35 4:00 2:25 2:25 3:55 R16 3:35 3:50 3:25 3:50 2:20 3:30 3:45 4:15 3:20 3:45 4:10 2:20 2:20 4:00 R17 3:20 3:35 3:20 3:30 2:05 3:25 3:45 4:05 3:20 3:20 3:45 2:05 2:05 3:25 S-Mile Region and Keyhole to EPZ Boundary R18 6:25 7:05 5:20 6:10 6:40 5:15 5:50 6:50 3:50 4:20 5:05 4:00 7:30 6:25 R19 6:15 7:20 5:30 6:25 6:45 5:20 6:15 6:50 3:55 4:20 5:05 4:15 7:45 6:15 R20 6:05 6:55 5:30 6:00 6:50 5:15 5:45 6:25 3:55 4:10 4:50 4:05 7:40 6:15 R21 5:30 6:10 4:40 5:15 5:50 4:35 5:10 5:50 3:25 3:45 4:20 3:15 6:40 5:30 R22 3:10 3:30 2:45 3:05 2:25 3:00 3:25 3:55 2:45 3:15 3:35 2:25 2:25 3:10 R23 3:15 3:30 3:05 3:20 2:30 3:20 3:35 4:05 2:50 3:20 3:55 2:30 2:30 3:30 R24 3:00 3:15 2:50 3:00 2:15 3:00 3:10 3:40 2:45 3:05 3:30 2:15 2:15 3:15 R25 2:55 3:10 2:50 2:55 2:20 3:00 3:10 3:40 2:40 2:55 3:25 2:20 2:20 3:05 R26 3:10 3:30 2:55 3:05 2:25 3:10 3:25 3:55 2:50 3:10 3:35 2:25 2:25 3:15 R27 3:20 3:30 3:05 3:20 2:30 3:20 3:35 4:00 3:00 3:15 3:40 2:35 2:30 3:25 Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 7-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer MdekWeed MdekMdekWeedMidweek Midweek Midweek MiwekWekn Ween idekWeekend Weekend Weekend Miwe Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Evening -M~iday Region Good Rain Good Rain Good Good Ri Snw Good Ri Snw Good Special Roadway Weather Weather Weather Weather Ri Snw Weather Ri Snw Weather Event Impact R28 3:10 3:25 3:00 3:15 2:30 3:10 3:25 3:55 2:55 3:15 3:40 2:30 2:30 3:20 R29 3:30 3:45 3:05 3:20 2:25 3:30 3:50 4:15 3:05 3:30 3:50 2:25 2:25 3:35 R30 4:00 4:20 3:35 4:00 2:45 4:00 4:20 4:50 3:30 4:00 4:30 2:50 2:50 4:00 R31 3:45 3:55 3:20 3:35 2:45 3:50 4:00 4:40 3:15 3:40 4:10 2:45 2:50 4:00 R32 3:45 4:00 3:10 3:25 2:45 3:45 4:00 4:30 3:15 3:40 4:05 2:40 2:45 3:45 R33 6:05 7:00 5:15 5:45 6:35 5:10 ,5:45 ,6:25 ,3:55 4:30 5:05 4:05 7:25 6:05______________Staged Evacuation Mile Region and Keyhole to 5 Miles R34 3:25 3:35 3:20 3:35 2:55 3:20 3:40 4:05 3:15 3:30 4:00 3:00 2:55 3:35 R35 3:10 3:30 3:10 3:20 2:50 3:20 3:35 3:45 3:10 3:20 3:45 2:55 2:50 3:15 R36 2:35 2:40 2:30 2:35 2:40 2:35 2:35 3:00 2:35 2:35 3:00 2:40 2:40 2:35 R37 2:10 2:10 2:10 2:10 2:10 2:10 2:10 2:20 2:10 2:10 2:20 2:10 2:10 2:10 R38 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:20 2:15 2:15 2:40 2:15 2:15 2:40 2:25 2:20 2:15 R39 2:40 2:45 2:40 2:45 2:40 2:45 2:45 3:15 2:40 2:45 3:10 2:40 2:40 2:40 R40 2:40 2:45 2:40 2:40 2:35 2:40 2:45 3:15 2:40 2:45 3:10 2:35 2:40 2:40 R41 2:35 2:35 2:30 2:30 2:35 2:35 2:35 3:05 2:30 2:30 3:00 2:35 2:35 2:50 R42 2:40 2:40 2:35 2:40 2:40 2:40 2:40 3:10 2:35 2:40 3:10 2:40 2:40 2:50 R43 2:40 2:40 2:40 2:40 2:45 2:40 2:40 3:10 2:40 2:40 3:10 2:45 2:45 2:50 R44 2:55 2:55 2:50 3:00 2:55 2:50 3:00 3:25 2:55 3:05 3:25 2:55 2:55 3:30 R45 3:00 3:10 2:55 3:00 2:55 3:00 3:05 3:35 2:55 3:00 3:25 2:55 2:55 3:30 R46 3:25 3:45 3:15 3:40 2:50 3:25 3:50 4:10 3:15 3:40 4:00 2:55 2:50 3:55 R47 3:45 3:55 3:35 3:55 3:00 3:35 4:00 4:35 3:35 3:50 4:15 3:00 3:00 4:10 R48 3:40 4:05 3:30 3:30 2:55 3:45 4:20 4:30 3:20 3:50 3:55 2:55 2:55 3:50 Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 7-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 7-2. Time to Clear the Indicated Area of 100 Percent of the Affected Population Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer Midweek Midweek Midweek Midweek Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend weekend dweek Midweek Weekend Weekend Weekend Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Evening Midday Region Good Rain Good Rain Good Good Rain Snow Good i Good Special Roadway Weather Weather Weather Weather I S Weather Rain Snow Weather Event Impact Entire 2-Mile Region, 5-Mile Region, and EPZ R01 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 3:45 R02 5:35 5:40 5:10 j 5:25 3:50 5:35 5:35 6:15 5:05 5:35 5:45 3:50 3:50 5:55 R03 9:40 10:35 8:05 8:45 9:40 8:40 9:45 10:50 6:30 7:10 7:30 6:35 10:35 9:40 2-Mile Region and Keyhole to 5 Miles R04 5:45 5:45 5:15 5:35 3:50 5:35 5:50 6:10 5:15 5:30 5:55 3:50 3:50 5:50 ROS 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 5:20 3:50 3:50 5:20 3:50 3:50 3:50 R06 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 5:20 3:50 3:50 5:20 3:50 3:50 3:50 R07 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 5:20 3:50 3:50 5:20 3:50 3:50 3:50 R08 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 5:20 3:50 3:50 5:20 3:50 3:50 3:50 R09 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 5:20 3:50 3:50 5:20 3:50 3:50 3:50 R10 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 5:20 3:50 3:50 5:20 3:50 3:50 3:50 R11 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 5:20 3:50 3:50 5:20 3:50 3:50 3:50 R12 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 5:20 3:50 3:50 5:20 3:50 3:50 3:50 R13 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 5:20 3:50 3:50 5:20 3:50 3:50 4:20 R14 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 5:20 3:50 3:50 5:20 3:50 3:50 4:20 R1S 4:40 5:15 4:25 4:55 3:50 4:25 5:10 5:35 4:25 4:55 5:25 3:50 3:50 5:15 R16 5:35 5:45 5:15 5:35 3:50 5:35 5:50 6:10 5:15 5:30 5:55 3:50 3:50 5:45 R17 5:35 5:45 5:15 5:30 3:50 5:35 5:50 6:10 5:15 5:30 5:55 3:50 3:50 5:45 5-Mile Region and Keyhole to EPZ Boundary R18 9:05 10:10 7:30 8:30 9:40 8:00 9:25 10:05 6:20 6:45 7:15 5:55 10:10 9:05 R19 9:00 10:25 7:30 8:40 9:30 8:20 9:45 10:40 6:20 6:55 7:30 6:05 10:20 9:05 R20 8:30 9:40 7:20 8:20 9:30 8:05 8:50 9:40 6:10 6:30 6:50 6:00 10:05 8:40 R21 8:20 9:15 6:40 7:20 8:15 7:35 8:05 9:15 6:10 6:15 6:35 5:40 9:30 8:20 R22 5:25 5:40 5:10 5:30 3:55 5:35 5:45 6:00 4:55 5:45 6:05 3:55 4:05 5:25 R23 5:35 5:55 5:35 5:35 3:55 5:45 5:45 5:50 5:05 5:30 5:45 3:55 4:00 5:35 R24 5:30 5:40 5:20 5:25 3:55 5:30 5:40 6:10 5:15 5:35 5:50 3:55 3:55 5:30 R25 5:30 5:40 5:40 5:40 3:55 5:40 5:40 6:10 5:15 5:35 5:50 3:55 3:55 5:30 R26 5:35 5:45 5:20 5:20 3:55 5:40 5:40 6:00 5:15 5:35 5:50 3:55 3:55 5:35 R27 5:55 5:55 5:25 5:30 4:25 6:05 6:05 6:10 5:15 5:30 5:50 3:55 4:25 5:55 Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 7-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer Midweek Midweek Midweek Midweek Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend weekend dweek Midweek Weekend Weekend Weekend Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Evening Midday Region Good Rain Good Rain Good Good Rain Snow Good Rain Snow Good Special Roadway Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Event Impact R28 5:35 5:35 5:20 5:25 3:55 5:55 5:55 6:05 5:10 5:30 5:50 4:00 3:55 5:40 R29 5:55 5:55 5:35 5:35 3:55 5:35 5:50 6:25 5:25 5:45 6:00 3:55 3:55 5:55 R30 6:20 7:00 5:40 6:30 5:05 6:20 7:00 8:00 5:50 6:30 7:25 5:05 5:10 6:20 R31 6:10 6:55 5:45 6:25 5:15 6:20 7:00 8:00 5:40 6:25 7:25 5:05 5:20 6:40 R32 6:10 6:55 5:45 6:25 5:15 6:25 7:00 8:00 5:40 6:25 7:30 5:05 5:20 6:40 R33 9:05 10:15 7:30 8:30 9:40 8:00 9:25 10:05 6:20 6:45 7:15 5:55 10:10 9:05 Staged Evacuation Mile Region and Keyhole to 5 Miles R34 6:05 6:15 5:35 5:50 4:00 5:50 6:40 6:40 5:25 5:40 6:05 4:00 4:00 6:05 R35 6:00 6:25 5:35 5:50 3:50 6:00 6:20 6:20 5:25 5:50 6:05 3:50 3:50 6:05 R36 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 5:20 3:50 3:50 5:20 3:50 3:50 3:50 R37 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 5:20 3:50 3:50 5:20 3:50 3:50 3:50 R38 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 5:20 3:50 3:50 5:20 3:50 3:50 3:50 R39 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 5:20 3:50 3:50 5:20 3:50 3:50 3:50 R40 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 5:20 3:50 3:50 5:20 3:50 3:50 3:50 R41 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 5:20 3:50 3:50 5:20 3:50 3:50 3:50 R42 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 5:20 3:50 3:50 5:20 3:50 3:50 3:50 R43 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 5:20 3:50 3:50 5:20 3:50 3:50 3:50 R44 3:50 3:50 4:05 4:15 4:00 3:50 3:55 5:20 4:10 4:10 5:20 4:00 4:00 4:20 R4S 3:50 3:50 4:05 4:10 4:00 3:50 3:50 5:20 4:10 4:10 5:20 4:00 4:00 4:20 R46 4:50 5:20 4:25 4:55 3:50 4:45 5:15 5:50 4:30 4:55 5:30 3:50 3:50 5:20 R47 6:10 6:10 5:30 5:40 3:50 6:00 6:25 6:35 5:40 5:45 5:55 3:55 3:50 6:10 R48 6:00 6:10 5:30 5:35 3:50 6:00 6:20 6:20 5:25 5:45 5:55 3:50 3:50 6:05 Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 7-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 7-3. Time to Clear 90 Percent of the 2-Mile Area within the Indicated Region Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer Midweek Midweek Midweek Midweek Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend weekend dweek Midweek Weekend Weekend Weekend Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Evening Midday Region Good Rain Good Rain Good Good Rain Snow Good Rain Snow Good Special Roadway Weather Weather Weather Weather I S Weather Weather Event Impact Un-staged Evacuation Mile and 5-Mile Region R01 2:05 2:05 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:05 2:05 12:45 1:45 1:45 2:30 1:45 1:45 2:05 R02 2:05 2:05 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:05 j 2:05 2:45 1:45 1:45 2:30 1:45 1:45 2:05 Un-staged Evacuation Mile Ring and Keyhole to 5-Miles R04 2:05 2:05 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:05 2:05 2:45 1:45 1:45 2:30 1:45 1:45 2:05 R05 2:05 2:05 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:05 2:05 2:45 1:45 1:45 2:30 1:45 1:45 2:05 R06 2:05 2:05 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:05 2:05 2:45 1:45 1:45 2:30 1:45 1:45 2:05 R07 2:05 2:05 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:05 2:05 2:45 1:45 1:45 2:30 1:45 1:45 2:05 ROB 2:05 2:05 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:05 2:05 2:45 1:45 1:45 2:30 1:45 1:45 2:05 R09 2:05 2:05 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:05 2:05 2:45 1:45 1:45 2:30 1:45 1:45 2:05 RIO 2:05 2:05 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:05 2:05 2:45 1:45 1:45 2:30 1:45 1:45 2:05 R11 2:05 2:05 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:05 2:05 2:45 1:45 1:45 2:30 1:45 1:45 2:05 R12 2:05 2:05 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:05 2:05 2:45 1:45 1:45 2:30 1:45 1:45 2:05 R13 2:05 2:05 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:05 2:05 2:45 1:45 1:45 2:30 1:45 1:45 2:05 R14 2:05 2:05 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:05 2:05 2:45 1:45 1:45 2:30 1:45 1:45 2:05 R1S 2:05 2:05 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:05 2:05 2:45 1:45 1:45 2:30 1:45 1:45 2:05 R16 2:05 2:05 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:05 2:05 2:45 1:45 1:45 2:30 1:45 1:45 2:05 R17 2:05 2:05 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:05 2:05 2:45 1:45 1:45 2:30 1:45 1:45 2:05 Staged Evacuation

-S-Mile Region R34 2:05 2:05 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:05 1 2:05 2:45 [ 1:45 1:45 2:30 1:45 1:45 2:05 Staged Evacuation Mile Ring and Keyhole to 5 Miles R35 2:05 2:05 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:05 2:05 2:45 1:45 1:45 2:30 1:45 1:45 2:05 R36 2:05 2:05 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:05 2:05 2:45 1:45 1:45 2:30 1:45 1:45 2:05 R37 2:05 2:05 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:05 2:05 2:45 1:45 1:45 2:30 1:45 1:45 2:05 R38 2:05 2:05 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:05 2:05 2:45 1:45 1:45 2:30 1:45 1:45 2:05 R39 2:05 2:05 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:05 2:05 2:45 1:45 1:45 2:30 1:45 1:45 2:05 R40 2:05 2:05 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:05 2:05 2:45 1:45 1:45 2:30 1:45 1:45 2:05 R41 2:05 2:05 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:05 2:05 2:45 1:45 1:45 2:30 1:45 1:45 2:05 R42 2:05 2:05 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:05 2:05 2:45 1:45 1:45 2:30 1:45 1:45 2:05 R43 2:05 2:05 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:05 2:05 2:45 1:45 1:45 2:30 1:45 1:45 2:05 R44 2:05 2:05 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:05 2:05 2:45 1:45 1:45 2:30 1:45 1:45 2:05 Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 7-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer Midweek Midweek Midweek Midweek Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend weekend dweek Midweek Weekend Weekend Weekend Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Evening Midday Region Good Rain Good Rain Good Good Rain Snow Good Rain Snow Good Special Roadway Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Event Impact R45 2:05 2:05 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:05 2:05 2:45 1:45 1:45 2:30 1:45 1:45 2:05 R46 2:05 2:05 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:05 2:05 2:45 1:45 1:45 2:30 1:45 1:45 2:05 R47 2:05 2:05 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:05 2:05 2:45 1:45 1:45 2:30 1:45 1:45 2:05 R48 2:05 2:05 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:05 2:05 2:45 1:45 1:45 2:30 1:45 1:45 2:05 Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 7-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 7-4. Time to Clear 100 Percent of the 2-Mile Area within the Indicated Region Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer Midweek Midweek Midweek Midweek Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend weekend dweek Midweek Weekend Weekend Weekend A'4mm 1] [l 11 11] 1! 1I [ 0 'Bil A IB !I] [g Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Evening Midday Region Good Good Rain Good Good Good i Good Special Roadway_______Wahr Rain Goodan SowRin So Ipc Weather Weather Weather Weather I S Weather Weather Event Impact Un-staged Evacuation Mile and S-Mile Region RO1 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 3:45 R02 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 1 3:45 3:45 1 5:15 1 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 3:45 Un-staged Evacuation Mile Ring and Keyhole to 5-Miles R04 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 3:45 R05 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 3:45 R06 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 3:45 R07 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 3:45 ROB 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 3:45 R09 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 3:45 R1O 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 3:45 R11 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 3:45 R12 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 3:45 R13 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 3:45 R14 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 3:45 R15 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 3:45 R16 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 3:45 R17 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 3:45 R17 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 3:45 R35 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 3:45 R36 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:4S 3:45 3:45 R37 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 3:45 R38 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 3:45 R39 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 3:45 R40 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 5:1S 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 3:45 R41 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 3:45 R42 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 3:45 R43 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 3:45 R44 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 3:45 Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 7-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer Midweek Midweek Midweek Midweek Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend weekend dweek Midweek Weekend Weekend Weekend Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Evening Midday Region Good Rain Good Rain Good Good Rain Snow Good Rain Snow Good Special Roadway Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Event Impact R45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 3:45 R46 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 3:45 R47 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 3:45 R48 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 5:15 3:45 3:45 3:45 Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 7-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 7-5. Description of Evacuation Regions (Regions R01-R17)Region

Description:

2-Mile 5-Mile Full Evacuate 2-Mile Radius and Downwind to 5 Miles Ring Ring EPZ Region Number: ROl R02 R03 R04 R05 R06 R07 R08 R09 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 R16 R17 Wind Direction Toward: N/A N/A N/A N NNE NE ENE, E ESE SE SSE S SSW SW WSW W NW NNW Sub-area ConewaRo (Dauphin)Conewago East (York)Conewago West (York)Conoy (North)Conoy (South)Derry Dover East Donegal East Manchester (East)East Manchester (West)Elizabethtown i Fairview (East)i Fairview (West)Goldsboro Harrisburg Hellam Highspire Hummelstown Lewisberry Londonderry (South)Londonderry (North)Lower Allen Lower Paxton I. I Lower Swatara (North)Lower Swatara (South)Manchester Borough Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 7-18 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Region

Description:

2-Mile S-Mile Full Evacuate 2-Mile Radius and Downwind to 5 Miles Ring Ring EPZ Region Number: R01 R02 R03 R04 R05 R06 R07 RO8 R09 RI 1 Rl1 R12 R13 R14 R15 R16 R17 Wind Direction Toward: N/A N/A N/A N NNE NE ENE, E ESE SE SSE S SSW SW WSWI W W ,I NNW Sub-area Manchester Township (East)Manchester Township (West)Middletown Mount Joy Mount Wolf New Cumberland Newberry (Northeast)

Newberry (Southeast)

Newberry (West)Paxtang Royalton South Hanover South Londonderry Springettsbury Steelton Swatara x//'" Warrington West Donegal (North)West Donegal (South)___ 4. 4. 4 4 Vnr-, L-,on x xj ___i m Sub-area(s)

Shelter-In-Place Sub-area(s) not within Plume, but Evacuates because It is surrounded by other Sub-areas which are Evacuating Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 7-19 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 7-6. Description of Evacuation Regions (Regions R18-R33)RgoDecito:I Evacuate 5-Mile Radius and Downwind to the EPZ Budr Region Number: R8 R9 R0 R1 R2 R3 R4 RS R6 R7 28 29 30 R31 R3 R3 Wind Direction Toward: N N E EE E IEE S S S W WW W WNW N N Sub-area Conewago (Dauphin)Conewago East (York)Conewago West (York)Conoy (North)Conoy (South)Derry Dover East Donegal East Manchester (East)East Manchester (West)Elizabethtown Fairview (East)I Fairview (West)Goldsboro Harrisburg Hellami Highspire Hummelstown Lewisberry Londonderry (South)Londonderry (North)Lower Allen Lower Paxton Lower Swatara (North)X Lower Swatara (South) I Manchester Borough Manchester Township (East)Three Mile Island 7-20 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Region

Description:

Evacuate 5-Mile Radius and Downwind to the EPZ Boundary Region Number: R18 R19 R20 R21 R22 R23 R24 R25 R26 R27 R28 R29 R30 R31 R32 R33 Wind Direction Toward: N NNE NE ENE E ESE SE SSE S SSW SW WSW W WNW NW NNW Sub-area Manchester Township (West)Middletown Mount Joy Mount Wolf New Cumberland Newberry (Northeast)

Newberry (Southeast)

Newberry (West)Paxtang Royalton South Hanover South Londonderry

____________________

IiInIiIiInIi I I I_____I ____I _Steelton x I xI I I I Swatara I I I I I + F Warrington I i I I West Donegal (North)West Donegal (South)York Haven Sub-area(s)

Shelter-In-Place uo-areasi not WiTnin nume, outn vacuates oecuse ti surrounded bv other Sub-areas which are Evacuatin IS Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 7-21 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 7-7. Description of Evacuation Regions (Regions R34-R48)Region

Description:

Staged Evacuation Mile Radius Evacuates, then Evacuate Downwind to 5 Miles Region Number: R34 R35 R36 R37 R38 R39 R40 R41 R42 R43 R44 R45 R46 R47 R48 5-Mile WW Wind Direction Toward: N NNE NE ENE, E ESE SE SSE S SSW SW WSW W WNW, NNW Ring NW Sub-area Conewago (Dauphin)Conewago East (York) __m m_Conewago West (York)Conoy (North)Cono (South)Derry Dover East Donegal East Manchester (East)East Manchester (West)Elizabethtown Fairview (East)Fairview (West)Goldsboro Harrisburg Hellam Highspire Hummelstown Lewisberry Londonderry (South)Londonderry (North)Lower Allen Lower Paxton Lower Swatara (North)Lower Swatara (South)Manchester Borough I Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 7-22 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Region

Description:

Staged Evacuation Mile Radius Evacuates, then Evacuate Downwind to 5 Miles Region Number: R34 R35 R36 R37 R38 R39 R40 R41 R42 R43 R44 R45 R46 R47 R48 5-Mile WNW Wind Direction Toward: N NNE NE ENE, E ESE SE SSE S SSW SW WSW W NW NNW Ring NW Sub-area Manchester Township (East)Manchester Township (West)Middletown Mount Joy Mount Wolf New Cumberland Newberry (Northeast) 1ll Newberry (West)1 Paxtang South Hanover South Londonderry Springettsbury Steelton Swatara Warrington West Donegal (North)YWest Donegal (South) ///YorIHve Shelter-In-Place//

Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 7-23 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0

~le Region ~eRegio~ ~P~J Is ýWd-[3KI-N--[Sae vcain -Ml Reio & ! 5 Mie1ow wn I Keyhole: 5-Mile Region & 10 Miles Downwind I 1 Keynoie: Z-MiIe tKegion & 0 Mies jowflwiflU Fsae Emcain -ieRgon&5MlsDwwn I

• Plant Location N Region to be Evacuated:

100% Evacuation 0 20% Shadow Evacuation 0 Shelter, then Evacuate Figure 7-1. Voluntary Evacuation Methodology Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 7-24 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure 7-2. TMI Shadow Region Three Mile Island 7-25 Evacuation Time Estimate KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure 7-3. Congestion Patterns at 1 Hour after the Advisory to Evacuate Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 7-26 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure 7-4. Congestion Patterns at 2 Hours after the Advisory to Evacuate Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 7-27 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure 7-5. Congestion Patterns at 3 Hours after the Advisory to Evacuate Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 7-28 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure 7-6. Congestion Patterns at 4 Hours after the Advisory to Evacuate Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 7-29 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure 7-7. Congestion Patterns at 5 Hours after the Advisory to Evacuate Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 7-30 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure 7-8. Congestion Patterns at 6 Hours and 30 Minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 7-31 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure 7-9. Congestion Patterns at 8 Hours after the Advisory to Evacuate Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 7-32 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure 7-10. Congestion Patterns at 9 Hours after the Advisory to Evacuate Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 7-33 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure 7-11. Congestion Patterns at 9 Hours and 30 Minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate Three Mile Island Evacuation Time Estimate 7-34 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0