ML13070A024

Evacuation Time Estimates Checklist

ML13070A024
Person / Time
Site:	Watts Bar
Issue date:	03/04/2013
From:	James Shea Tennessee Valley Authority
To:	Document Control Desk, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
References
NUREG/CR-7002
Download: ML13070A024 (14)

Text

Tennessee Valley Authority, 1101 Market Street, Chattanooga, Tennessee 37402 March 4, 2013 10 CFR 50.4 10 CFR 50, Appendix E ATTN: Document Control Desk U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washington, D.C. 20555-0001 Watts Bar Nuclear Plant, Unit 1 Facility Operating License Nos. NPF-90 NRC Docket Nos. 50-390

Subject:

Evacuation Time Estimates Checklist

Reference:

1. Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) letter to NRC, "Evacuation Time Estimates,"

dated December 18, 2012

2. NUREG/CR-7002, "Criteria for Development of Evacuation Time Estimate Studies," published November 2011 The purpose of this correspondence is to provide supplemental information regarding evacuation time estimates previously provided by TVA as requested by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC).

By letter dated December 18, 2012 (Reference 1), TVA provided the analysis supporting Evacuation Time Estimates (ETE) for Watts Bar Nuclear Plant (WBN). In a telephone call on February 1,.2013, the NRC requested copies of the checklist from Appendix B of NUREG/CR-7002 (Reference 2), "Criteria for Development of Evacuation Time Estimate Studies," associated with the analysis. In addition, the NRC requested confirmation that the analysis does not include information subject to withholding from public disclosure in accordance with Title 10 of the Code of Federal Regulations (10 CFR), Section 2.390, "Public inspections, exemptions, requests for withholding."

The enclosure to this letter provides a copy of the completed checklist. Additionally, TVA confirms that the information provided in the ETE analysis for WBN is not exempt from public disclosure in accordance with 10 CFR 2.390.

Printed on recycled paper

U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Page 2 March 4, 2013 TVA informed the NRC that this information will be provided within 30 days. Accordingly, the due date for this submittal is March 4, 2013, since March 3 falls on a Sunday and the next business day is March 4.

There are no new regulatory commitments in this letter. Should you have any questions or if additional information is needed regarding this submittal, please contact Mr. Walter H. Lee, Senior Emergency Preparedness Manager, at (423) 751-8577.

Respectffully, J. W. Shea Vice President, Nuclear Licensing

Enclosure:

Table B-1 Evacuation Time Estimate (ETE) Review Criteria Checklist - Watts Bar cc (Enclosure):

NRC Regional Administrator - Region II NRC Senior Resident Inspector - Watts Bar Nuclear Plant

Enclosure I Tennessee Valley Authority Watts Bar Nuclear Plant Unit I Table B-I Evacuation Time Estimate (ETE) Review Criteria Checklist - Watts Bar (See Attached)

Table B-I ETE Review Criteria Checklist Wafts Bar Criterion Addressedi In I

I ETAnalysis Cmet

.1.0 Introduction

a. The emergency planning zone (EPZ) and surrounding area yes Sect 1.2 should be described,.e ec

b. A map should be included that identifies primary features of the site, including major roadways, significant topographical yes Figures 1-1, 1-2, and 1-3 features, boundaries of counties, and population centers within the EPZ.

c. A comparison of the current and previous ETE should be provided and includes similar information as identified in yes Table 1-3 Table 1-1, "ETE Comparison," of NUREG/CR-7002.

1.1 Approach

a. A discussion of the approach and level of detail obtained during the field survey of the roadway network should be yes Section 4.3 and Appendix D provided.

b. Sources of demographic data for schools, special facilities, large employers, and special events should be identified.

y

c. Discussion should be presented on use of traffic control yes plans in the analysis.

Sect 2.1

d. Traffic simulation models used for the analyses should be identified by name and version.

yes Sect 5.5.2 and Table 1-3

e. Methods used to address data uncertainties should be described.

yes Sect 2.1, 6.6,6.7 1.2.Assumptions

a. The planning basis for the ETE includes the assumption that the evacuation is ordered promptly and no early protective yes Sect 2.1, 3, 5.4 actions have been implemented.___

b. Assumptions consistent with Table 1-2, "General Assumptions," of NUREG/CR-7002 should be provided and yes Sect 2.1 include the basis to support their use.

1.3 Scenario Development

a. The ten scenarios in Table 1-3, Evacuation Scenarios, should be developed for the ETE analysis, or a reason yes Meigs County Fair as "Special Event" Sect. 6.9 should be provided for use of other scenarios.

(P

Criterion:Addressed in Cmet 1.3.1 Staged Evacuation

a. A discussion should be provided on the approach used in development of a staged evacuation, yes Sect 6.4 1.4 Evacuation Planning Areas

a. A map of the EPZ with emergency response planning areas y

(ERPAs) should be included, es Figure 1-2

b. A table should be provided identifying the ERPAs considered for each ETE calculation by downwind direction yes Table 5-1 in e ach secto r.

c.

A table similar to Table 1-4, "Evacuation Areas for a Staged Evacuation Keyhole," of NUREG/CR-7002 should be yes Table 5-1 provided and includes the complete evacuation of the 2, 5, and 10 mile areas and for the 2 mile area/5 mile keyhole evacuations.

2.0 Demand Estimation

a. Demand estimation should be developed for the four population groups, including permanent residents of the yes Table 3-1 thru 3-4 EPZ, transients, special facilities, and schools.

2.1 Permanent Residents and Transient Population

a. The US Census should be the source of the population values, or another credible source should be provided, yes Sect 2.1, 3

b. Population values should be adjusted as necessary for growth to reflect population estimates to the year of the ETE. yes 2010 Census released in Oct 2011 and is most recent

c. A sector diagram should be included, similar to Figure 2-1,

'Population by Sector," of NUREG/CR-7002, showing the yes Appendix C population distribution for permanent residents.

2.1.1 Permanent Residents with Vehicles

a. The persons per vehicle value should be between 1 and 2 or justification should be provided for other values.

yes Sect 3.1.1 (2.04 person per vehicle)

b. Major employers should be listed.

yes Table B-1 2.1.2 Transient Population

a. A list of facilities which attract transient populations should y

be included, and peak and average attendance for these yes Table B-2 facilities should be listed. The source of information used to develop attendance values should be. provided.

b. The average population. during the season should be used, yes Sect 3.2 03

Criterion Addressedin ETE~na~slsComments.

itemized and totaled for each scenario.

c.

The percent of permanent residents assumed to be at facilities should be estimated yes Sect 3.3

d. The number of people per vehicle should be provided.

Numbers may vary by scenario, and if so, discussion on why yes Sect 2.1, 3.3, Tables B-1, B-2 values vary should be provided...................

e. A sector diagram should be included, similar to Figure 2-1 of NUREG/CR-7002, showing the population distribution for yes Table 3-2 the transient population.....

2.2.Transit De endent Permanent Residents

a. The methodology used to determine the number of transit yes Sect 3.1.2 dependent residents should be discussed.

b. Transportation resources needed to evacuate this group yes Sect 3.1.2 should be quantified.

c. The countyllocal evacuation plans for transit dependent residents should be used in the analysis.

yesSect_3.1.2

d. The methodology used to determine the number of people with disabilities and those with access and functional needs yes Sect 3.1.2 who may need assistance and do not reside in special facilities should be provided. Data from local/county registration programs should be used in the estimate, but should not be the only set of data.

e. Capacities should be provided for all types of transportation resources. Bus seating capacity of 50% should be used or yes Sect 3.1.2 justification should be provided for higher values.

f.

An estimate of this population should be provided and information should be provided that the existing registration yes Sect 3.1.2 programs were used in developing the estimate.

g. A summary table of the total number of buses, ambulances, or other transport needed to support evacuation should be yes Sect 3.1.2 provided and the quantification of resources should be detailed enough to assure double counting has not occurred.

2.3 Special Facility Residents

a. A list of special facilities, including the type of facility, I

location, and average population should be provided.

yes Table B-4 Special facility staff should be included in the total special

Criterion Addressed: incmet ETE! Analysis.::

ýý(Yes/No).

facility population.

b.

A discussion should be provided on how special facility data yes Sect 3.4 was obtained.

c. The number of wheelchair and bed-bound individuals should be provided.

yes Table B-4

d. An estimate of the number and capacity of vehicles needed y

to support the evacuation of the facility should be provided, yes Table B-4

e. The logistics for mobilizing specially trained staff (e.g.,

medical support or security support for prisons, jails, and N/A Part of offsite agency planning process other correctional facilities) should be discussed when appropriate 2.4 Schools

a. A list of schools including name, location, student population, and transportation resources required to support yes Sect 3.4.2, Table 3-3 & Table B-3 the evacuation, should be provided. The source of this information should beprovided.

b. Transportation resources for elementary and middle schools are based on 100% of the school capacity......

yes Sect 3.4.2, Table B-3

c. The estimate of high school students who will use their personal vehicle to evacuate should be provided and a basis yes Sect 3. adjustment for personal vehicles N/A for the values used should be provided.

d. The need for return trips should be identified if necessary.

yes Sect 6.8 (no return trips) 2.5.1 Special Events

a. A complete list of special events should be provided and includes information on the population, estimated duration, yes Sect 6.9 and season of the event.

b. The special event that encompasses' the peak transient ysSc population should be analyzed in the ETE.

yes Sect 6.9

c. The percent of permanent residents attending the event yes Sect 6.9 should be estimated.

ye.........

2.,5.2 Shadow Evacuation

a. A shadow evacuation of 20* percent sho0uld be included for areas outside the evacuation area extending to 15 miles yes Sect 1.2, 1.4, 6.4 from the NPP.

b. Population estimates for the shadow evacuation in the 10 to 15 mile area beyond the EPZ are provided by sector.

yes a)

J:.-

Criterion Addressed in Cmet ETE Analysis.

.inn

c. The loading of the shadow evacuation onto the roadway network should be consistent with the trip generation time yes Sect 5 generated for the permanent resident population.

2.5.3 Background and Pass Through Traffic

a. The volume of background traffic and pass-through traffic should be based on the average daytime traffic. Values may yes Sect 2.1, 4.3 be reduced for nighttime scenarios.

b. Pass-through traffic should be assumed to have stopped y

entering the EPZ about two hours after the initial notification.

yes Sect 2.1, 4.3 2.6 Summary of Demand Estimation

a. A summary table should be provided that identifies the total y

populations and total vehicles used in the analysis for yes Table 3-1 thru 3-4 permanent residents, transients, transit dependent residents, special facilities, schools, shadow population, and pass-through demand used in each scenario.

3.0 R o d w a C pac ty.

3.0 Roadway Capacity__________

a. The method(s) used to assess roadway capacity should be yes Sect 4 discussed.

1 e 3.1 Roadway Characteristics

a. A field survey of key routes within the EPZ has been conducted, yes 1 Sect 4.1

b. Information should be provided describing the extent of the survey, and types of information gathered and used in the yes Sect 4.3 analysis.

c. A table similar to that in Appendix A, "Roadway Characteristics," of NUREG/CR-7002 should be provided, yes Appendix 0

d. Calculations for a representative roadway segment should be provided.

yes AppendixD

e. A legible map of the roadway system that identifies node numbers and segments used to develop the ETE should be yes Figure 4-1 plus map in Appendix D provided and should be similar to Figure 3-1, "Roadway Network Identifying Nodes and Segments," of NUREG/CR-7002.

3.2 Capacity Analysis

a. The approach used to calculate the roadway capacity for the transportation network should be described in detail and yes Sect 4.3 and Appendix D 90

('I

.nelnAdse

.~

Comments ETE Analysis identifies factors that are expressly used in the modeling.

i b. The capacity analysis identifies where field information y

should be used in the ETE calculation.

yes Sect 4.3 and Appendix D 3.3 Intersection Control

a. A list of intersections should be provided that includes the total numbers of intersections modeled that are yes Sect 7 and Appendix D unsignalized, signalized, or manned by response personnel, yes

b. Characteristics for the 10 highest volume intersections within the EPZ are provided including the location, signal cycle yes Table 7-1 length, and turn lane queue capacity.....

c. Discussion should be provided on how time signal cycle is yes Sect 4.3 used in the calculations.

3.4 Adverse Weather

a. The adverse weather condition should be identified and the effect of adverse weather on mobilization should be yes Sect 2.3 considered.

b. The speed and capacity reduction factors identified in Table 3-1, "Weather Capacity Factors," of NUREG/CR-7002 yes Sect 2.3 should be used or a basis should be provided for other values.

c. The study identifies assumptions for snow removal on N/A No added delays for snow removal were assumed.

streets and driveways, when applicable.

• 4.0 Development of Evacuation: Times 4.1 Trip Generation Time

a. The process used to develop trip generation times should be yes Sect 5 identified.

b. When telephone surveys are used, the scope of the survey, area of the survey, number of participants, and statistical yes Appendix E relevance should be provided.

c. Data obtained from telephone surveys should be summarized.

yes Appendix E

d. The trip generation time for each population group should be developed from site specific information.

yes Sect 5 4.1.1 Permanent Residents and TransientPopulation

a. Permanent residents are assumed to evacuate from their Sect 5 homes but are not assumed to be at home at all times. Trip O)M

CritrionAddesse InComments ETE Analysis..::::_

generation time includes the assumption that a percentage of residents will need to return home prior to evacuating.

b. Discussion should be provided on the time and method used to notify transients. The trip generation time discusses any yes Sect 5 difficulties notifying persons in hard to reach areas such as on lakes or in campgrounds.

c. The trip generation time accounts for transients potentially returning to hotels prior to evacuating.

yes Sect 5

d. Effect of public transportation resources used during special events where a large number of transients are expected N/A should be considered.

e. The trip generation time for the transient population should be integrated and loaded onto the transportation network yes Sect 5 with the general public.

4.1.2 Transit Dependent Residents

a. If available, existing plans and bus routes are used in the ETE analysis. If new plans are developed with the ETE, they should have been agreed upon by the responsible authorities.

b. Discussion should be included on the means of evacuating yes Sect 5.3 ambulatory and non-ambulatory residents.

c. The number, location and availability of buses, and other resources needed to support the demand estimation are N/A Transportation resources are part of offsite agency provided.

planning process

d. Logistical details, such as the time to obtain buses, brief drivers and initiate the bus route are provided, yes Sect 5.4.3, 6.8

e. Discussion should identify the time estimated for transit dependent residents to prepare and then travel to a bus yes Sect 6.8; means of travel to pick up points not pickup point, and describes the expected means of travel to addressed. Transportation Assistance phone numbers the pickup point.

provided for the public.

f.

The number of bus stops and time needed to load passengers should be discussed.

yes Sect 6.8 A map of bus routes should be included, I N/A Bus route information was not available.

h. The trip generation time for non-ambulatory persons T

includes the time to mobilize ambulances or special N/A Individual needs are part of offsite planning process vehicles, time to drive to the home of residents, loading time, 1P

Criterion Addrsesed in Cmet ETE Analysis..............

_(YestNo)..

and time to drive out of the EPZ should be provided.

L Information should be provided to support analysis of return yes Sect 6.8 trips, if necessary.y 4.1.3 Special Facilities

a. Information on evacuation logistics and mobilization times should be provided.,

Yes

b. Discussion should be provided on the inbound and outbound St speeds yes Sect 6.8

c. The number of wheelchair and bed-bound individuals should be provided, and the logistics of evacuating these residents yes Table B-4 should be discussed..

d. Time for loading of residents should be provided.

yes.

Sect 6.8

e. Information should be provided that indicates whether the evacuation can be completed in a single trip or if additional yes Table 6-7 trips are needed, f,

If return trips are needed, the destination of vehicles should N/A Return trips are not anticipated.

be provided.

g. Discussion should be provided on whether special facility residents are expected to pass through the reception center yes Sect 5.4.3 prior to being evacuated to their final destination.

h. Supporting information should be provided to quantify the time elements for the return trips, yes Sect 6.8. Return trips are not anticipated.

4.1.4 Schools

a. Information on evacuation logistics and mobilization times should be provided.

yes Sect 6.8

b. Discussion should be provided on the inbound and outbound speeds.

yes Sect 6.8

c. Time for loading of students should be provided, yes Sect 6.8

d. Information should be provided that indicates whether the evacuation can be completed in a single trip or if additional yes Table 6-8 trips are needed.

e. If return trips are needed, the destination of school buses N/A Return trips are not anticipated.

should be provided.

f.

If used, reception centers should be identified. Discussion should be provided on whether students are expected to yes Sect 5.4.3; Schools evacuate directly to host schools pass through the reception center prior to being evacuated

,P

Criterion Addressed Inomet ETE.Ana y~sis (YesINo.)

to their final destination.

g. Supporting information should be provided to quantify the N/A Return trips are not anticipated.

time elements for the return trips.

N/_...Rtrrpsaentatcptd 4.2 ETE Modeling........

a. General information about the model should be provided and demonstrates its use in ETE studies.

yes Sect 5.5

b. If a traffic simulation model is not used to conduct the ETE calculation, sufficient detail should be provided to validate N/A the analytical approach used. All criteria elements should have been met, as appropriate.

4.2.1 Traffic Simulation Model Input

a. Traffic simulation model assumptions and a representative yes set of model inputs should be provided.

Sect 5.5

b. A glossary of terms should be provided for the key performance measures and parameters used in the yes Sect 5.5, 6.7 analysis.

4.2.2 Traffic Simulation Model Output

a. A discussion regarding whether the traffic simulation model used must be in equilibration prior to calculating the ETE yes Sect 5.5 should be provided.

b. The minimum following model outputs should be provided to support review:

yes Sect 6 and Appendix F

1. Total volume and percent by hour at each EPZ exit mode.

2.

Network wide average travel time.

3. Longest Queue length for the 10 intersections with the highest traffic volume.

4. Total vehicles exiting the network.

5. A plot that provides both the mobilization curve and evacuation curve identifying the cumulative percentage of evacuees who have mobilized and exited the EPZ.

6. Average speed for each major evacuation route that exits the EPZ.

,P

(,O C.

Color coded roadway maps should be provided for various times (i.e., at 2, 4, 6 hrs., etc.) during a full EPZ evacuation scenario, identifying areas where long queues exist includinq level of service (LOS) "E" and LOS 'F" conditions, yes Appendix F

Criterion A~ddressed in Cmet ETE Analysis

___(Yes/Nd) if-they occur.

4.3 Evacuation Time Estimates for the General Public

a. The ETE should include the time to evacuate 90% and 100% of the total permanent resident and transient yes Table 6-1 population...

b. The ETE for 100% of the general public should include all members of the general public. Any reductions or truncated yes Table 6-1 data should be explained.

c. Tables should be provided for the 90 and 100 percent ETEs similar to Table 4-3, "ETEs for Staged Evacuation Keyhole,"

yes Table 6-4 of NUREG/CR-7002.

I

d. ETEs should be provided for the 100 percent evacuation of special facilities, transit dependent, and school populations.

yes Sect 6 5.0 Other Considerations 5.1 Developm ent of Traffic Control Plans

a. Information that responsible authorities have approved the traffic control plan used in the analysis should be provided, yes Sect 7

b.

A discussion of adjustments or additions to the traffic control yes Sect 7 plan that affect the ETE should be provided.

yeecv 5.2 Enhancements in Evacuation Time

a. The results of assessments for improvement of evacuation Sect 7 time should be provided, yes

b. A statement or discussion regarding presentation of enhancements to local authorities should be provided.

yes Sect 7 5.3 State and Local Review

a. A list of agencies contacted and the extent of interaction with yes Sect 2 these agencies should be discussed.

yse

b. Information should be provided on any unresolved issues N/A that may affect the ETE.

54 Reviews and Updates

a. A discussion of when an updated ETE analysis is required to es Sect 6.6 be performed and submitted to the NRC.

yes S

6.5 Reception Centers and Congregate Care Center

a. A map of congregate care centers and reception centers y

should be provided.

yes Figure 4-1

b. If return trips are required, assumptions used toestimate N/A 90,CD

Criterion Addressed in

_ETE Analysis Comments

,,__(YerdNo),

return times for buses should be provided.

c.

It should be clearly stated if it is assumed that passengers are left at the reception center and are taken by separate yes Sect 3.1.2 buses to the congregate care center.

I II Technical Reviewer Supervisory Review Date Date Ila'/~

1/31/13k

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