ML031550720

Identical Letters - Request for Review of Integrated Industry Initiating Event Indicator Report

ML031550720
Person / Time
Issue date:	05/06/2003
From:	Newberry S NRC/RES/DRAA
To:	Bischoff G, Brooks C, Fertel M, Gray J, Lochbaum D, Mallay J, Modeen D B & W Owners Group, Electric Power Research Institute, Entergy Mississippi, Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO), Nuclear Energy Institute, Union of Concerned Scientists, Westinghouse Electric Corp
References
Download: ML031550720 (13)

Text

May 6, 2003 Mr. Charles Brooks Staff Assistant Industry and Government Relations Institute of Nuclear Power Operations 700 Galleria Parkway, NW Atlanta, GA 30339-5957

SUBJECT:

REQUEST FOR REVIEW OF INTEGRATED INDUSTRY INITIATING EVENT INDICATOR REPORT In accordance with our peer review process, we are offering you the opportunity to review and comment on a draft report documenting development efforts for an integrated industry initiating event indicator (IIIEI) for potential use in NRCs Industry Trends Program (ITP).

As background, the NRC staff implemented the ITP in 2001, and is continuing to develop the program as a means to confirm that the nuclear industry is maintaining the safety of operating power plants and to increase public confidence in the efficacy of the NRCs processes. The NRC uses industry-level indicators to identify adverse trends, evaluate them using agency databases, and take appropriate actions. One important output of this program is to report to Congress each year on the performance goal measure of no statistically significant adverse industry trends in safety performance as part of the NRCs Performance and Accountability Report. Based on the information currently available from the industry-level indicators originally developed by the former Office for Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data and the Accident Sequence Precursor Program implemented by RES, no statistically significant adverse industry trends have been identified through FY 2002.

The results of the ITP, along with any actions taken or planned, are reviewed annually during the Agency Action Review Meeting (AARM) and reported to the Commission. The most recent report on the ITP is in SECY-03-0057, FY 2002 Results of the Industry Trends Program for Operating Power Reactors and Status of Ongoing Development, which is being made available on the NRCs web site at http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/commission/secys/.

The staff is continuing to develop additional industry-level indicators that are more risk-informed and better aligned with the cornerstones of safety in the Reactor Oversight Process (ROP).

These additional indicators are being developed in phases, and may be qualified for use in the ITP and the annual Performance and Accountability Report to Congress. The attached draft report describes a potential new overall indicator for the initiating events cornerstone that has been developed by the NRCs Office of Research (RES). An overall indicator can provide a better representation of the overall risk from initiating events than multiple individual indicators of initiating events with varying degrees of risk significance.

C. Brooks 2 This overall initiating events indicator consists of an index of the most risk significant industry initiating events. This set of events are defined in NUREG-1753, Risk-Based Performance Indicators: Results of Phase 1 Development, as those events that contribute >1% to industry core damage frequency and that have occurred at least once during the period 1987-1995. An index was developed for BWRs that has 9 risk-significant initiating events, and a similar index was developed for PWRs that has 10 events (the additional category of events is steam generator tube ruptures). Each initiating event is weighted in the index based on its relative contribution to industry core damage frequency. The development of the IIIEI involved updating data for initiating events that was most recently published in NUREG-5750, Initiating Events at U.S. Nuclear Power Plants: 1987-1995. In general, the number of initiating events has continued to decline over the past decade.

Please review the attached draft report and provide us your comments. We are specifically interested in your thoughts on the following:

• The concept of the IIIEI and its technical basis

• The relationship of the IIIEI to other risk-informed efforts, including the ITP and the ROP

• Your responses to the technical questions contained in Section 6 of the report.

We would appreciate receiving your comments by 60 days from the receipt of this memorandum. If you have any questions regarding this report, please contact Dr. Dale Rasmuson (301-415-7571, dmr@nrc.gov) of my staff.

Sincerely,

/RA/

Scott F. Newberry, Director Division of Risk Analysis and Applications Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research

Attachment:

As stated cc: w/o att:

J. Strosnider/A. Thadani, RES S. Collins, NRR B. Sheron, NRR R. Borchardt, NRR B. Boger, NRR

Identical Letter 3 IDENTICAL LETTERS DATED: 5/6/03

SUBJECT:

REQUEST FOR REVIEW OF INTEGRATED INDUSTRY INITIATING EVENT INDICATOR REPORT Distribution w/o att:

OERAB RF TBoyce, NRR SRichards, NRR DRAA RF CCarpenter, NRR DDube, RES File Center MSatorius, NRR SDembek, NRR Identical Letters:

Mr. Charles Brooks Mr. Gordon Bischoff, Project Manager Staff Assistant Westinghouse Combined Owners Group Industry and Government Relations Westinghouse Electric Corporation Institute of Nuclear Power Operations Mail Stop 5-16 700 Galleria Parkway, NW P.O. Box 355 Atlanta, GA 30339-5957 Pittsburgh, PA 15230-0355 Mr. Marvin Fertel Mr. James F. Mallay Nuclear Energy Institute B&W Owners Group Services 1776 I Street, N.W. Framatome Technologies, Inc.

Suite 400 P.O. Box 10935 Washington, D.C. 20006-3708 Lynchburg, VA 24506-0935 Mr. David A. Lochbaum Mr. Jack Gray, Chairman Union of Concerned Scientists BWR Owners Group 1707 H Street, N.W. Entergy Nuclear Suite 600 440 Hamilton Avenue Washington, DC 20006-3919 P.O. Box 5029 White Plains, NY 10601 Mr. David Modeen Vice President and Chief Nuclear Officer Electric Power Research Institute 3412 Hillview Avenue Palo Alto, CA 94304 DOCUMENT NAME: A:\IIIEI EXTERNAL REVIEW TRANSMITTAL LETTER APRIL2003.WPD To receive a copy of this document, indicate in the box: C = Copy wo/encl E = Copy w/encl N = No copy OFFICE OERAB E OERAB E OERAB E DRAA E NAME DRasmuson MCheok PBaranowsky SNewberry DATE 4/29/03 5/1/03 5/1/03 5/6/03 OFFICIAL RECORD COPY OAR in ADAMS? (Y or N) Y Publicly Available? (Y or N) Y Template Number: RES-006 Accession Number: RES File Code: 2C-3

May 6, 2003 Mr. Marvin Fertel Nuclear Energy Institute 1776 I Street, N.W.

Suite 400 Washington, D.C. 20006-3708

SUBJECT:

REQUEST FOR REVIEW OF INTEGRATED INDUSTRY INITIATING EVENT INDICATOR REPORT In accordance with our peer review process, we are offering you the opportunity to review and comment on a draft report documenting development efforts for an integrated industry initiating event indicator (IIIEI) for potential use in NRCs Industry Trends Program (ITP).

As background, the NRC staff implemented the ITP in 2001, and is continuing to develop the program as a means to confirm that the nuclear industry is maintaining the safety of operating power plants and to increase public confidence in the efficacy of the NRCs processes. The NRC uses industry-level indicators to identify adverse trends, evaluate them using agency databases, and take appropriate actions. One important output of this program is to report to Congress each year on the performance goal measure of no statistically significant adverse industry trends in safety performance as part of the NRCs Performance and Accountability Report. Based on the information currently available from the industry-level indicators originally developed by the former Office for Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data and the Accident Sequence Precursor Program implemented by RES, no statistically significant adverse industry trends have been identified through FY 2002.

The results of the ITP, along with any actions taken or planned, are reviewed annually during the Agency Action Review Meeting (AARM) and reported to the Commission. The most recent report on the ITP is in SECY-03-0057, FY 2002 Results of the Industry Trends Program for Operating Power Reactors and Status of Ongoing Development, which is being made available on the NRCs web site at http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/commission/secys/.

The staff is continuing to develop additional industry-level indicators that are more risk-informed and better aligned with the cornerstones of safety in the Reactor Oversight Process (ROP).

These additional indicators are being developed in phases, and may be qualified for use in the ITP and the annual Performance and Accountability Report to Congress. The attached draft report describes a potential new overall indicator for the initiating events cornerstone that has been developed by the NRCs Office of Research (RES). An overall indicator can provide a better representation of the overall risk from initiating events than multiple individual indicators of initiating events with varying degrees of risk significance.

M. Fertel 2

This overall initiating events indicator consists of an index of the most risk significant industry initiating events. This set of events are defined in NUREG-1753, Risk-Based Performance Indicators: Results of Phase 1 Development, as those events that contribute >1% to industry core damage frequency and that have occurred at least once during the period 1987-1995. An index was developed for BWRs that has 9 risk-significant initiating events, and a similar index was developed for PWRs that has 10 events (the additional category of events is steam generator tube ruptures). Each initiating event is weighted in the index based on its relative contribution to industry core damage frequency. The development of the IIIEI involved updating data for initiating events that was most recently published in NUREG-5750, Initiating Events at U.S. Nuclear Power Plants: 1987-1995. In general, the number of initiating events has continued to decline over the past decade.

Please review the attached draft report and provide us your comments. We are specifically interested in your thoughts on the following:

• The concept of the IIIEI and its technical basis

• The relationship of the IIIEI to other risk-informed efforts, including the ITP and the ROP

• Your responses to the technical questions contained in Section 6 of the report.

We would appreciate receiving your comments by 60 days from the receipt of this memorandum. If you have any questions regarding this report, please contact Dr. Dale Rasmuson (301-415-7571, dmr@nrc.gov) of my staff.

Sincerely,

/RA/

Scott F. Newberry, Director Division of Risk Analysis and Applications Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research

Attachment:

As stated cc: w/o att:

J. Strosnider/A. Thadani, RES S. Collins, NRR B. Sheron, NRR R. Borchardt, NRR B. Boger, NRR

May 6, 2003 Mr. David A. Lochbaum Union of Concerned Scientists 1707 H Street, N.W.

Suite 600 Washington, D.C. 20006-3919

SUBJECT:

REQUEST FOR REVIEW OF INTEGRATED INDUSTRY INITIATING EVENT INDICATOR REPORT In accordance with our peer review process, we are offering you the opportunity to review and comment on a draft report documenting development efforts for an integrated industry initiating event indicator (IIIEI) for potential use in NRCs Industry Trends Program (ITP).

As background, the NRC staff implemented the ITP in 2001, and is continuing to develop the program as a means to confirm that the nuclear industry is maintaining the safety of operating power plants and to increase public confidence in the efficacy of the NRCs processes. The NRC uses industry-level indicators to identify adverse trends, evaluate them using agency databases, and take appropriate actions. One important output of this program is to report to Congress each year on the performance goal measure of no statistically significant adverse industry trends in safety performance as part of the NRCs Performance and Accountability Report. Based on the information currently available from the industry-level indicators originally developed by the former Office for Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data and the Accident Sequence Precursor Program implemented by RES, no statistically significant adverse industry trends have been identified through FY 2002.

The results of the ITP, along with any actions taken or planned, are reviewed annually during the Agency Action Review Meeting (AARM) and reported to the Commission. The most recent report on the ITP is in SECY-03-0057, FY 2002 Results of the Industry Trends Program for Operating Power Reactors and Status of Ongoing Development, which is being made available on the NRCs web site at http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/commission/secys/.

The staff is continuing to develop additional industry-level indicators that are more risk-informed and better aligned with the cornerstones of safety in the Reactor Oversight Process (ROP).

These additional indicators are being developed in phases, and may be qualified for use in the ITP and the annual Performance and Accountability Report to Congress. The attached draft report describes a potential new overall indicator for the initiating events cornerstone that has been developed by the NRCs Office of Research (RES). An overall indicator can provide a better representation of the overall risk from initiating events than multiple individual indicators of initiating events with varying degrees of risk significance.

D. Lochbaum 2

This overall initiating events indicator consists of an index of the most risk significant industry initiating events. This set of events are defined in NUREG-1753, Risk-Based Performance Indicators: Results of Phase 1 Development, as those events that contribute >1% to industry core damage frequency and that have occurred at least once during the period 1987-1995. An index was developed for BWRs that has 9 risk-significant initiating events, and a similar index was developed for PWRs that has 10 events (the additional category of events is steam generator tube ruptures). Each initiating event is weighted in the index based on its relative contribution to industry core damage frequency. The development of the IIIEI involved updating data for initiating events that was most recently published in NUREG-5750, Initiating Events at U.S. Nuclear Power Plants: 1987-1995. In general, the number of initiating events has continued to decline over the past decade.

Please review the attached draft report and provide us your comments. We are specifically interested in your thoughts on the following:

• The concept of the IIIEI and its technical basis

• The relationship of the IIIEI to other risk-informed efforts, including the ITP and the ROP

• Your responses to the technical questions contained in Section 6 of the report.

We would appreciate receiving your comments by 60 days from the receipt of this memorandum. If you have any questions regarding this report, please contact Dr. Dale Rasmuson (301-415-7571, dmr@nrc.gov) of my staff.

Sincerely,

/RA/

Scott F. Newberry, Director Division of Risk Analysis and Applications Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research

Attachment:

As stated cc: w/o att:

J. Strosnider/A. Thadani, RES S. Collins, NRR B. Sheron, NRR R. Borchardt, NRR B. Boger, NRR

May 6, 2003 Mr. David Modeen Vice President and Chief Nuclear Officer Electric Power Research Institute 3412 Hillview Avenue Palo Alto, CA 94304

SUBJECT:

REQUEST FOR REVIEW OF INTEGRATED INDUSTRY INITIATING EVENT INDICATOR REPORT In accordance with our peer review process, we are offering you the opportunity to review and comment on a draft report documenting development efforts for an integrated industry initiating event indicator (IIIEI) for potential use in NRCs Industry Trends Program (ITP).

As background, the NRC staff implemented the ITP in 2001, and is continuing to develop the program as a means to confirm that the nuclear industry is maintaining the safety of operating power plants and to increase public confidence in the efficacy of the NRCs processes. The NRC uses industry-level indicators to identify adverse trends, evaluate them using agency databases, and take appropriate actions. One important output of this program is to report to Congress each year on the performance goal measure of no statistically significant adverse industry trends in safety performance as part of the NRCs Performance and Accountability Report. Based on the information currently available from the industry-level indicators originally developed by the former Office for Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data and the Accident Sequence Precursor Program implemented by RES, no statistically significant adverse industry trends have been identified through FY 2002.

The results of the ITP, along with any actions taken or planned, are reviewed annually during the Agency Action Review Meeting (AARM) and reported to the Commission. The most recent report on the ITP is in SECY-03-0057, FY 2002 Results of the Industry Trends Program for Operating Power Reactors and Status of Ongoing Development, which is being made available on the NRCs web site at http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/commission/secys/.

The staff is continuing to develop additional industry-level indicators that are more risk-informed and better aligned with the cornerstones of safety in the Reactor Oversight Process (ROP).

These additional indicators are being developed in phases, and may be qualified for use in the ITP and the annual Performance and Accountability Report to Congress. The attached draft report describes a potential new overall indicator for the initiating events cornerstone that has been developed by the NRCs Office of Research (RES). An overall indicator can provide a better representation of the overall risk from initiating events than multiple individual indicators of initiating events with varying degrees of risk significance.

D. Modeen 2 This overall initiating events indicator consists of an index of the most risk significant industry initiating events. This set of events are defined in NUREG-1753, Risk-Based Performance Indicators: Results of Phase 1 Development, as those events that contribute >1% to industry core damage frequency and that have occurred at least once during the period 1987-1995. An index was developed for BWRs that has 9 risk-significant initiating events, and a similar index was developed for PWRs that has 10 events (the additional category of events is steam generator tube ruptures). Each initiating event is weighted in the index based on its relative contribution to industry core damage frequency. The development of the IIIEI involved updating data for initiating events that was most recently published in NUREG-5750, Initiating Events at U.S. Nuclear Power Plants: 1987-1995. In general, the number of initiating events has continued to decline over the past decade.

Please review the attached draft report and provide us your comments. We are specifically interested in your thoughts on the following:

• The concept of the IIIEI and its technical basis

• The relationship of the IIIEI to other risk-informed efforts, including the ITP and the ROP

• Your responses to the technical questions contained in Section 6 of the report.

We would appreciate receiving your comments by 60 days from the receipt of this memorandum. If you have any questions regarding this report, please contact Dr. Dale Rasmuson (301-415-7571, dmr@nrc.gov) of my staff.

Sincerely,

/RA/

Scott F. Newberry, Director Division of Risk Analysis and Applications Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research

Attachment:

As stated cc: w/o att:

J. Strosnider/A. Thadani, RES S. Collins, NRR B. Sheron, NRR R. Borchardt, NRR B. Boger, NRR

May 6, 2003 Mr. Gordon Bishcoff, Project Manager Westinghouse Combined Owners Group Westinghouse Electric Corporation Mail Stop 5-16 P.O. Box 355 Pittsburgh, PA 15230-0355

SUBJECT:

REQUEST FOR REVIEW OF INTEGRATED INDUSTRY INITIATING EVENT INDICATOR REPORT In accordance with our peer review process, we are offering you the opportunity to review and comment on a draft report documenting development efforts for an integrated industry initiating event indicator (IIIEI) for potential use in NRCs Industry Trends Program (ITP).

As background, the NRC staff implemented the ITP in 2001, and is continuing to develop the program as a means to confirm that the nuclear industry is maintaining the safety of operating power plants and to increase public confidence in the efficacy of the NRCs processes. The NRC uses industry-level indicators to identify adverse trends, evaluate them using agency databases, and take appropriate actions. One important output of this program is to report to Congress each year on the performance goal measure of no statistically significant adverse industry trends in safety performance as part of the NRCs Performance and Accountability Report. Based on the information currently available from the industry-level indicators originally developed by the former Office for Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data and the Accident Sequence Precursor Program implemented by RES, no statistically significant adverse industry trends have been identified through FY 2002.

The results of the ITP, along with any actions taken or planned, are reviewed annually during the Agency Action Review Meeting (AARM) and reported to the Commission. The most recent report on the ITP is in SECY-03-0057, FY 2002 Results of the Industry Trends Program for Operating Power Reactors and Status of Ongoing Development, which is being made available on the NRCs web site at http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/commission/secys/.

The staff is continuing to develop additional industry-level indicators that are more risk-informed and better aligned with the cornerstones of safety in the Reactor Oversight Process (ROP).

These additional indicators are being developed in phases, and may be qualified for use in the ITP and the annual Performance and Accountability Report to Congress. The attached draft report describes a potential new overall indicator for the initiating events cornerstone that has been developed by the NRCs Office of Research (RES). An overall indicator can provide a better representation of the overall risk from initiating events than multiple individual indicators of initiating events with varying degrees of risk significance.

G. Bishcoff 2 This overall initiating events indicator consists of an index of the most risk significant industry initiating events. This set of events are defined in NUREG-1753, Risk-Based Performance Indicators: Results of Phase 1 Development, as those events that contribute >1% to industry core damage frequency and that have occurred at least once during the period 1987-1995. An index was developed for BWRs that has 9 risk-significant initiating events, and a similar index was developed for PWRs that has 10 events (the additional category of events is steam generator tube ruptures). Each initiating event is weighted in the index based on its relative contribution to industry core damage frequency. The development of the IIIEI involved updating data for initiating events that was most recently published in NUREG-5750, Initiating Events at U.S. Nuclear Power Plants: 1987-1995. In general, the number of initiating events has continued to decline over the past decade.

Please review the attached draft report and provide us your comments. We are specifically interested in your thoughts on the following:

• The concept of the IIIEI and its technical basis

• The relationship of the IIIEI to other risk-informed efforts, including the ITP and the ROP

• Your responses to the technical questions contained in Section 6 of the report.

We would appreciate receiving your comments by 60 days from the receipt of this memorandum. If you have any questions regarding this report, please contact Dr. Dale Rasmuson (301-415-7571, dmr@nrc.gov) of my staff.

Sincerely,

/RA/

Scott F. Newberry, Director Division of Risk Analysis and Applications Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research

Attachment:

As stated cc: w/o att:

J. Strosnider/A. Thadani, RES S. Collins, NRR B. Sheron, NRR R. Borchardt, NRR B. Boger, NRR

May 6, 2003 Mr. James F. Mallay B&W Owners Group Services Framatome Technologies, Inc.

P.O. Box 10935 Lynchburg, VA 24506-0935

SUBJECT:

REQUEST FOR REVIEW OF INTEGRATED INDUSTRY INITIATING EVENT INDICATOR REPORT In accordance with our peer review process, we are offering you the opportunity to review and comment on a draft report documenting development efforts for an integrated industry initiating event indicator (IIIEI) for potential use in NRCs Industry Trends Program (ITP).

As background, the NRC staff implemented the ITP in 2001, and is continuing to develop the program as a means to confirm that the nuclear industry is maintaining the safety of operating power plants and to increase public confidence in the efficacy of the NRCs processes. The NRC uses industry-level indicators to identify adverse trends, evaluate them using agency databases, and take appropriate actions. One important output of this program is to report to Congress each year on the performance goal measure of no statistically significant adverse industry trends in safety performance as part of the NRCs Performance and Accountability Report. Based on the information currently available from the industry-level indicators originally developed by the former Office for Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data and the Accident Sequence Precursor Program implemented by RES, no statistically significant adverse industry trends have been identified through FY 2002.

The results of the ITP, along with any actions taken or planned, are reviewed annually during the Agency Action Review Meeting (AARM) and reported to the Commission. The most recent report on the ITP is in SECY-03-0057, FY 2002 Results of the Industry Trends Program for Operating Power Reactors and Status of Ongoing Development, which is being made available on the NRCs web site at http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/commission/secys/.

The staff is continuing to develop additional industry-level indicators that are more risk-informed and better aligned with the cornerstones of safety in the Reactor Oversight Process (ROP).

These additional indicators are being developed in phases, and may be qualified for use in the ITP and the annual Performance and Accountability Report to Congress. The attached draft report describes a potential new overall indicator for the initiating events cornerstone that has been developed by the NRCs Office of Research (RES). An overall indicator can provide a better representation of the overall risk from initiating events than multiple individual indicators of initiating events with varying degrees of risk significance.

J. Mallay 2 This overall initiating events indicator consists of an index of the most risk significant industry initiating events. This set of events are defined in NUREG-1753, Risk-Based Performance Indicators: Results of Phase 1 Development, as those events that contribute >1% to industry core damage frequency and that have occurred at least once during the period 1987-1995. An index was developed for BWRs that has 9 risk-significant initiating events, and a similar index was developed for PWRs that has 10 events (the additional category of events is steam generator tube ruptures). Each initiating event is weighted in the index based on its relative contribution to industry core damage frequency. The development of the IIIEI involved updating data for initiating events that was most recently published in NUREG-5750, Initiating Events at U.S. Nuclear Power Plants: 1987-1995. In general, the number of initiating events has continued to decline over the past decade.

Please review the attached draft report and provide us your comments. We are specifically interested in your thoughts on the following:

• The concept of the IIIEI and its technical basis

• The relationship of the IIIEI to other risk-informed efforts, including the ITP and the ROP

• Your responses to the technical questions contained in Section 6 of the report.

We would appreciate receiving your comments by 60 days from the receipt of this memorandum. If you have any questions regarding this report, please contact Dr. Dale Rasmuson (301-415-7571, dmr@nrc.gov) of my staff.

Sincerely,

/RA/

Scott F. Newberry, Director Division of Risk Analysis and Applications Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research

Attachment:

As stated cc: w/o att:

J. Strosnider/A. Thadani, RES S. Collins, NRR B. Sheron, NRR R. Borchardt, NRR B. Boger, NRR

May 6, 2003 Mr. Jack Gray, Chairman BWR Owners Group Entergy Nuclear 440 Hamilton Avenue P.O. Box 5029 White Plains, NY 10601

SUBJECT:

REQUEST FOR REVIEW OF INTEGRATED INDUSTRY INITIATING EVENT INDICATOR REPORT In accordance with our peer review process, we are offering you the opportunity to review and comment on a draft report documenting development efforts for an integrated industry initiating event indicator (IIIEI) for potential use in NRCs Industry Trends Program (ITP).

As background, the NRC staff implemented the ITP in 2001, and is continuing to develop the program as a means to confirm that the nuclear industry is maintaining the safety of operating power plants and to increase public confidence in the efficacy of the NRCs processes. The NRC uses industry-level indicators to identify adverse trends, evaluate them using agency databases, and take appropriate actions. One important output of this program is to report to Congress each year on the performance goal measure of no statistically significant adverse industry trends in safety performance as part of the NRCs Performance and Accountability Report. Based on the information currently available from the industry-level indicators originally developed by the former Office for Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data and the Accident Sequence Precursor Program implemented by RES, no statistically significant adverse industry trends have been identified through FY 2002.

The results of the ITP, along with any actions taken or planned, are reviewed annually during the Agency Action Review Meeting (AARM) and reported to the Commission. The most recent report on the ITP is in SECY-03-0057, FY 2002 Results of the Industry Trends Program for Operating Power Reactors and Status of Ongoing Development, which is being made available on the NRCs web site at http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/commission/secys/.

The staff is continuing to develop additional industry-level indicators that are more risk-informed and better aligned with the cornerstones of safety in the Reactor Oversight Process (ROP).

These additional indicators are being developed in phases, and may be qualified for use in the ITP and the annual Performance and Accountability Report to Congress. The attached draft report describes a potential new overall indicator for the initiating events cornerstone that has been developed by the NRCs Office of Research (RES). An overall indicator can provide a better representation of the overall risk from initiating events than multiple individual indicators of initiating events with varying degrees of risk significance.

J. Gray 2 This overall initiating events indicator consists of an index of the most risk significant industry initiating events. This set of events are defined in NUREG-1753, Risk-Based Performance Indicators: Results of Phase 1 Development, as those events that contribute >1% to industry core damage frequency and that have occurred at least once during the period 1987-1995. An index was developed for BWRs that has 9 risk-significant initiating events, and a similar index was developed for PWRs that has 10 events (the additional category of events is steam generator tube ruptures). Each initiating event is weighted in the index based on its relative contribution to industry core damage frequency. The development of the IIIEI involved updating data for initiating events that was most recently published in NUREG-5750, Initiating Events at U.S. Nuclear Power Plants: 1987-1995. In general, the number of initiating events has continued to decline over the past decade.

Please review the attached draft report and provide us your comments. We are specifically interested in your thoughts on the following:

• The concept of the IIIEI and its technical basis

• The relationship of the IIIEI to other risk-informed efforts, including the ITP and the ROP

• Your responses to the technical questions contained in Section 6 of the report.

We would appreciate receiving your comments by 60 days from the receipt of this memorandum. If you have any questions regarding this report, please contact Dr. Dale Rasmuson (301-415-7571, dmr@nrc.gov) of my staff.

Sincerely,

/RA/

Scott F. Newberry, Director Division of Risk Analysis and Applications Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research

Attachment:

As stated cc: w/o att:

J. Strosnider/A. Thadani, RES S. Collins, NRR B. Sheron, NRR R. Borchardt, NRR B. Boger, NRR

Date: 10/27/04 ROUTING AND TRANSMITTAL SLIP TO: (Name, office symbol, room #, building, agency/post) Initials Date

1. Dale Rasmuson - Concur - Fill in Y or N for OAR in Adams and Publicly DMR 4/28 Available

2. Mike Cheok - Concur MCC 5/1

3. Patrick Baranowsky - Concur MCC for 5/1 PWB

4. Scott Newberry - Signature SFN 5/6

5. Nancy - Distribute - Fill in Template No., Accession No., and Res File Code NLL 5/6 6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

Action File Note and Return Approval For Clearance Per Conversation As Requested For Correction Prepare Reply Circulate For Your Information See Me Comment Investigate X Concurrence/Signature Coordination Justify REMARKS REQUEST FOR REVIEW OF INTEGRATED INDUSTRY INITIATING EVENT INDICATOR REPORT Room # - Bldg.

FROM: (Name, org. symbol, Agency/Post)

Phone #