ML022810537
| ML022810537 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Catawba, McGuire, Mcguire  |
| Issue date: | 10/08/2002 |
| From: | Malliakos A NRC/RES/DRAA/PRAB |
| To: | Cunningham M NRC/RES/DRAA/PRAB |
| References | |
| Download: ML022810537 (9) | |
Text
October 8, 2002 MEMORANDUM TO: Mark A. Cunningham, Chief Probabilistic Risk Analysis Branch Division of Risk Analysis and Applications Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research THRU: Alan M. Rubin, Section Chief /RA/
Probabilistic Risk Analysis Branch Division of Risk Analysis & Applications Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research FROM: Asimios Malliakos /RA/
Probabilistic Risk Analysis Branch Division of Risk Analysis and Applications Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research
SUBJECT:
TELECOMMUNICATION WITH DUKE ENERGY CORPORATION IN SUPPORT OF GENERIC SAFETY ISSUE (GSI) 189, "SUSCEPTIBILITY OF ICE CONDENSER AND BWR MARK III CONTAINMENTS TO EARLY FAILURE FROM HYDROGEN COMBUSTION DURING A SEVERE ACCIDENT" LICENSEE : Duke Energy Corporation FACILITIES: McGuire, Units 1 and 2, and Catawba, Units 1 and 2 On September 9, 2002, a conference call was conducted between the NRC, Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), and Duke Energy Corporation to discuss information closely related to GSI-189 that was provided in the Generic Environmental Impact Statement for License Renewal of Nuclear Power Plants, NUREG-1437, Supplement 8 for McGuire Nuclear Station, Units 1 and 2, and Supplement 9 for Catawba Nuclear Station, Units 1 and 2. The NRC staff requested information that was relevant to GSI-189 pertaining to station blackout (SBO) frequency, conditional containment failure probability, and early containment failure release category for McGuire Nuclear Station, Units 1 and 2, and for Catawba Nuclear Station, Units 1 and 2 . In response to the conference call Duke Energy Corporation sent an E-mail on September 20, 2002 (see Attachment 1).
On September 24, 2002, another conference call was conducted between the NRC, BNL, and Duke Energy Corporation to discuss information that was provided in the above stated E-mail.
In response to this conference call, Duke Energy Corporation sent a follow-up E-mail on September 24, 2002, that includes corrections to their previous E-mail (see Attachment 2).
M. Cunningham 2 Participants of the September 9, 2002, and September 24, 2002, conference calls are provided in Attachment 3.
Attachments: As stated cc/(w/attachments)
A. Notafrancesco Robert Martin, NRR John Lehner, BNL Bob Gill, Duke Energy Corporation Robert Palla, NRR Distribution: DRAA Chron, PRAB r/f, Malliakos, Malliakos r/f, Rubin, Cunningham, Newberry DOCUMENT NAME: g: AMalliakos/DUKE.wpd OAR in ADAMS? (Y or N) y ADAMS ACCESSION NO.: TEMPLATE NO.
Publicly Available? (Y or N) y DATE OF RELEASE TO PUBLIC SENSITIVE?
OFFICE PRAB PRAB PRAB NAME Malliakos Rubin Cunningham DATE 10/ 08 /02 10/ 08/02 10/ /02
ATTACHMENT 1 The follo w ing informa tion is b eing p rovid ed in resp onse to a req uest c omm unic a ted in a Sep tem b er 9, 2002 c onfe renc e c a ll in w hic h GSI-189 w a s d isc ussed . The informa tion p rovid ed c onsists of the follow ing :
This ha s 3 sub -p a rts: a ) b a se c a se PRA (revision 2b ), b ) c onsid ering the RC P sea l rep la c em ent, a nd c ) c o nsid ering the future a d d ition of the turb ine b uild ing flood w a ll.
- 3. Cond itiona l c onta inment fa ilure p rob a b ilities for the Mc G uire PDSs.
- 4. Cond itiona l c onta inment fa ilure p rob a b ilities for the Ca ta w b a PDSs.
- 5. The SBO ea rly c onta inm ent fa ilure risk results for Mc Guire using the 2000 c e nsus d a ta .
- 6. The SBO ea rly c onta inm ent fa ilure risk results for C a ta w b a using the 2000 c ensus d a ta .
- 7. The ea rly c onta inm ent fa ilure relea se c a teg ory d e finitions for Mc Guire.
- 8. The ea rly c onta inm ent fa ilure relea se c a teg ory d e finitions for Ca ta w b a .
1.0 Non-Seismic SBO Frequency Torna do SBO Seismic SBO (Includes torna do) Frequency Frequency p oint estim a te 2.66E-06 1.51E-06 7.41E-06 m ea n 2.95E-06 th 5 p erc entile 2.17E-07 50th p erc entile 1.25E-06 th 95 p erc entile 9.88E-06 2.0 Current Ba se Ca se (Revision 2b )
Non-Seismic SBO Frequency Torna do SBO Seismic SBO (Includes torna do) Frequency Frequency p oint estim a te 1.65E-05 1.92E-06 8.32E-06 m ea n 1.87E-05 th 5 p erc entile 9.35E-07 th 50 p erc entile 5.88E-06 th 95 p erc entile 6.39E-05 The seismic a na lysis ha s not b een revised to inc orp ora te the revised sea l m o d el. RCP sea l LO CAs a re a n im p orta nt c ontrib utor to the seismic c ore d a m a g e seq uenc es a nd a red uc tion in the seism ic a lly ind uc ed CDF simila r to w ha t is ob served in the interna l event a na lysis w o uld b e exp ec ted .
With RC P Se a l Re p la c e m ent Non-Seismic SBO Freque ncy Torna do SBO Seismic SBO (Includes torna do) Frequency Frequency p o int e stim a te 1.10E-05 1.15E-06 N/ A mean 1.28E-05 th 5 p e rc entile 5.25E-07 50th p e rc entile 3.79E-06 95th p e rc entile 4.52E-05 With RC P Sea l Rep la c em ent a nd Flo od Wa ll Non-Seismic SBO Frequency Torna do SBO Seismic SBO (Includes torna do) Frequency Frequency p oint estim a te 2.38E-06 1.15E-06 N/ A m ea n 2.60E-06 5th p erc entile 1.48E-07 th 50 p erc entile 8.32E-07 95th p erc entile 8.67E-06 3.0 Conta inm ent fa ilure p rob a b ilities a re d evelop ed for ea c h p la nt d a m a g e sta te (PDS) in the PRA. For those PDSs inc lud ed in the slow sta tion b la c kout freq uenc y, the c ond itiona l c onta inm ent fa ilure p rob a b ilities for ea rly fa ilure fe ll into a ra ng e from 0.15 to 0.19. Fo r the fa st SBO PDSs, the p rob a b ilities ra ng ed from 0.16 to 0.26. The la te c onta inm ent fa ilure c ond itiona l p rob a b ilities fell into ra ng es of 0.34 to 0.56 a nd 0.17 to 0.36 for the slow a nd fa st SBOs re sp ec tively.
4.0 Conta inm ent fa ilure p rob a b ilities a re d evelop ed for ea c h p la nt d a m a g e sta te (PDS) in the PRA. For those PDSs inc lud ed in the slow sta tion b la c kout freq uenc y, the c ond itiona l c onta inm ent fa ilure p rob a b ilities for ea rly fa ilure fe ll into a ra ng e from 0.16 to 0.21. For the fa st SBO PDSs, the p rob a b ilities ra ng ed from 0.16 to 0.34. The la te c onta inm ent fa ilure c ond itiona l p rob a b ilities fell into ra ng es of 0.72 to 0.84 a nd 0.68 to 0.84 for the slow a nd fa st SBOs re sp ec tively.
5.0 Ea rly c onta inm ent fa ilure p ub lic hea lth risk results for the Mc G uire SBO seq uenc es a re estima ted a s follow s. These results a re b a sed on the p op ula tion w ithin 50 m iles of the site from c ensus d a ta fo r the yea r 2000.
Initiator Latent Early Early Thyroid Whole Body Class CDF Fatalities/Yr Fatalities/Yr Injuries/Yr Cancers/Yr Person Rem/Yr Internal 1.1E-06 9.21E-05 1.11E-11 9.42E-10 2.86E-06 2.09E-01 External 9.0E-06 9.78E-04 1.19E-10 1.00E-08 3.04E-05 2.22E+00 6.0 Ea rly c o nta inm e nt fa ilure p ub lic he a lth risk re sults fo r the Ca ta w b a SBO seq ue nc e s a re e stim a te d a s fo llo w s. The se results a re b a sed o n the p o p ula tio n w ithin 50 m ile s o f the site fro m c e nsus d a ta fo r the ye a r 2000.
Initiator Latent Early Early Thyroid Whole Body Class CDF Fatalities/Yr Fatalities/Yr Injuries/Yr Cancers/Yr Person Rem/Yr Internal 1.4E-05 1.25E-08 6.62E-08 1.22E-03 4.48E-05 2.72E+00 External 1.1E-05 9.74E-09 5.17E-08 9.54E-04 3.51E-05 2.13E+00
7.0 Ea rly fa ilure without ex- Ea rly fa ilure with vessel release ex- vessel relea se Time of Release 6.0 ho urs 5.5 hours5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br /> Dura tion of Release 0.5 ho urs 0.5 hours5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br /> Wa rning Time 5.5 ho urs 5.0 hours0 days <br />0 hours <br />0 weeks <br />0 months <br /> Energy of Relea se 2.0E+07 c a l/ sec 2.0E+07 c a l/ sec Elevation of Release 10.0 m eters 10.0 mete rs Release Fra ctions Xe 1.0E+00 1.0E+00 I 4.4E-02 1.4E-02 Cs-Rb 3.5E-02 1.3E-02 Te-Sb 2.1E-02 1.2E-02 Ba 1.4E-03 8.7E-04 Ru 4.3E-03 1.8E-03 La 2.0E-05 3.8E-05 Sr 1.4E-04 2.2E-04 8.0 Ea rly Failure without ex- Ea rly Failure with vessel release ex- vessel relea se Time of Release 6.0 ho urs 6.0 ho urs Dura tion of Release 0.5 ho urs 0.5 ho urs Wa rning Time 5.5 ho urs 5.5 ho urs Energy of Relea se 2.0E+07 c a l/ sec 2.0E+07 c a l/ sec Elevation of Release 10.0 meters 10.0 meters Release Fra ctions Xe 1.0E+00 1.0E+00 I 5.5E-02 3.8E-02 Cs-Rb 4.8E-02 4.2E-02 Te-Sb 3.0E-02 3.0E-02 Ba 1.7E-03 3.6E-03 Ru 2.2E-03 3.0E-03 La 1.2E-04 1.2E-04 Sr 2.5E-04 7.6E-04
ATTACHMENT 2 The fo llo w ing info rm a tio n is b e ing p ro vid e d in resp o nse to a re q uest c o m m unic a ted in a Se p tem b e r 9, 2002 c onfe re nc e c a ll in w hic h G SI-189 w a s d isc ussed . The info rm a tion p ro vid e d c o nsists o f the fo llo w ing :
- 2. An unc e rta inty a na lysis o n the SBO fre q ue nc y fo r re visio n 2b o f the Ca ta w b a PRA.
This ha s 3 sub -p a rts: a ) b a se c a se PRA (revisio n 2b ), b ) c o nsid e ring the RC P se a l re p la c e m e nt, a nd c ) c o nsid e ring the future a d d itio n o f the turb ine b uild ing flo o d w a ll.
- 3. Co nd itio na l c onta inm ent fa ilure p ro b a b ilitie s fo r the Mc G uire PDSs.
- 4. Co nd itio na l c onta inm ent fa ilure p ro b a b ilitie s fo r the Ca ta w b a PDSs.
- 5. The SBO e a rly c o nta inm e nt fa ilure risk re sults fo r Mc G uire using the 2000 c e nsus d a ta .
- 6. The SBO e a rly c o nta inm e nt fa ilure risk results fo r Ca ta w b a using the 2000 c ensus d a ta .
- 7. The e a rly c o nta inm e nt fa ilure rele a se c a te g o ry d e finitio ns fo r Mc G uire .
- 8. The e a rly c o nta inm e nt fa ilure rele a se c a te g o ry d e finitio ns fo r Ca ta w b a .
1.0 Non-Seismic SBO Freque ncy Torna do SBO Seismic SBO (Includes torna do) Frequency Frequency p o int e stim a te 2.66E-06 1.51E-06 7.41E-06 mean 2.95E-06 th 5 p e rc e ntile 2.17E-07 th 50 p e rc e ntile 1.25E-06 th 95 p e rc e ntile 9.88E-06 2.0 Current Ba se Ca se (Revisio n 2b )
Non-Seismic SBO Freque ncy Torna do SBO Seismic SBO (Includes torna do) Frequency Frequency p o int e stim a te 1.65E-05 1.92E-06 8.32E-06 mean 1.87E-05 th 5 p e rc e ntile 9.35E-07 th 50 p e rc e ntile 5.88E-06 th 95 p e rc e ntile 6.39E-05 The se ism ic a na lysis ha s no t b ee n re vised to inc orp o ra te the re vise d se a l m o d e l. RCP se a l LO CAs a re a n im p o rta nt c o ntrib uto r to the se ism ic c o re d a m a g e se q ue nc e s a nd a re d uc tio n in the se ism ic a lly ind uc e d CDF sim ila r to w ha t is o b se rve d in the inte rna l e ve nt a na lysis w o uld b e e xp e c te d .
W ith RC P Se a l Re p la c e m e n t Non- Se ism ic SBO Fre q ue nc y Torna d o SBO Se ism ic SBO (Inc lud e s torna d o) Fre q ue nc y Fre q ue nc y p o in t e stim a te 1.10E-05 1.15E-06 N/ A mean 1.28E-05 5 t h p e rc e n tile 5.25E-07 50 th p e rc e n tile 3.79E-06 95 th p e rc e n tile 4.52E-05
With RC P Se a l Re p la c e m e nt a nd Flo o d Wa ll Non- Seismic SBO Frequency Torna do SBO Se ismic SBO (Inc ludes torna do) Freque nc y Frequency p o int e stim a te 2.38E-06 1.15E-06 N/ A mean 2.60E-06 5th p e rc e ntile 1.48E-07 50th p e rc e ntile 8.32E-07 95th p e rc e ntile 8.67E-06 3.0 C o nta inm e nt fa ilure p ro b a b ilitie s a re d e ve lo p e d fo r e a c h p la nt d a m a g e sta te (PDS) in the PRA. Fo r tho se PDSs inc lud e d in the slo w sta tio n b la c ko ut fre q ue nc y, the c o nd itio na l c o nta inm e nt fa ilure p ro b a b ilitie s fo r e a rly fa ilure fe ll into a ra ng e fro m 0.15 to 0.19. Fo r the fa st SBO PDSs, the p ro b a b ilitie s ra ng e d fro m 0.16 to 0.26. The la te c o nta inm e nt fa ilure c o nd itio na l p ro b a b ilitie s fe ll into ra ng e s o f 0.34 to 0.56 a nd 0.17 to 0.36 fo r the slo w a nd fa st SBO s re sp e c tive ly.
4.0 C o nta inm e nt fa ilure p ro b a b ilitie s a re d e ve lo p e d fo r e a c h p la nt d a m a g e sta te (PDS) in the PRA. Fo r tho se PDSs inc lud e d in the slo w sta tio n b la c ko ut fre q ue nc y, the c o nd itio na l c o nta inm e nt fa ilure p ro b a b ilitie s fo r e a rly fa ilure fe ll into a ra ng e fro m 0.16 to 0.21. Fo r the fa st SBO PDSs, the p ro b a b ilitie s ra ng e d fro m 0.16 to 0.34. The la te c o nta inm e nt fa ilure c o nd itio na l p ro b a b ilitie s fe ll into ra ng e s o f 0.72 to 0.84 a nd 0.68 to 0.84 fo r the slo w a nd fa st SBO s re sp e c tive ly.
5.0 Ea rly c o nta inm e nt fa ilure p ub lic he a lth risk re sults fo r the M c G uire SBO se q ue nc e s a re e stim a te d a s fo llo w s. The se re sults a re b a se d o n the p o p ula tio n w ithin 50 m ile s o f the site fro m c e nsus d a ta fo r the ye a r 2000.
Initiator Latent Early Early Thyroid Whole Body Class CDF Fatalities/Yr Fatalities/Yr Injuries/Yr Cancers/Yr Person Rem/Y Internal 1.1E-06 9.21E-05 1.11E-11 9.42E-10 2.86E-06 2.09E-01 External 9.0E-06 9.78E-04 1.19E-10 1.00E-08 3.04E-05 2.22E+00 6.0 Ea rly c o nta inm e nt fa ilure p ub lic he a lth risk re sults fo r the C a ta w b a SBO se q ue nc e s a re e stim a te d a s fo llo w s. The se re sults a re b a se d o n the p o p ula tio n w ithin 50 m ile s o f the site fro m c e nsus d a ta fo r the ye a r 2000.
Initiator Early Early Latent Thyroid Whole Body Class CDF Fatalities/Yr Injuries /Yr Fatalities/Y Cancers/Yr Person Rem/Y r
Internal 1.4E-05 1.25E-08 6.62E-08 1.22E-03 4.48E-05 2.72E+00 External 1.1E-05 9.74E-09 5.17E-08 9.54E-04 3.51E-05 2.13E+00
7.0 Ea rly fa ilure without e x- Ea rly fa ilure with ve ssel re le a se e x- vesse l rele a se Time of Re le a se 6.0 ho urs 5.5 ho urs Dura tion of Relea se 0.5 ho urs 0.5 ho urs Wa rning Time 5.5 ho urs 5.0 ho urs Ene rgy of Relea se 2.0E+07 c a l/ se c 2.0E+07 c a l/ se c Ele va tion of Re lea se 10.0 m e te rs 10.0 m e te rs Re le a se Fra c tions Xe 1.0E+00 1.0E+00 I 4.4E-02 1.4E-02 Cs- Rb 3.5E-02 1.3E-02 Te - Sb 2.1E-02 1.2E-02 Ba 1.4E-03 8.7E-04 Ru 4.3E-03 1.8E-03 La 2.0E-05 3.8E-05 Sr 1.4E-04 2.2E-04 8.0 Ea rly Fa ilure without e x- Ea rly Fa ilure with vesse l rele a se ex- vessel re le a se Time of Re le a se 6.0 ho urs 6.0 ho urs Dura tion of Relea se 0.5 ho urs 0.5 ho urs Wa rning Time 5.5 ho urs 5.5 ho urs Ene rgy of Relea se 2.0E+07 c a l/ se c 2.0E+07 c a l/ se c Ele va tion of Re lea se 10.0 m e te rs 10.0 m e te rs Re le a se Fra c tions Xe 1.0E+00 1.0E+00 I 5.5E-02 3.8E-02 Cs- Rb 4.8E-02 4.2E-02 Te - Sb 3.0E-02 3.0E-02 Ba 1.7E-03 3.6E-03 Ru 2.2E-03 3.0E-03 La 1.2E-04 1.2E-04 Sr 2.5E-04 7.6E-04
ATTACHMENT 3 TELECOMMUNICATION PARTICIPANTS Conference call of September 9, 2002 Staff Participants Alan Rubin, RES Allen Notafranchesco, RES Robert Martin, NRR Asimios Malliakos, RES BNL Participant John Lehner Duke Energy Corporation Participants Duncan Brewer Bob Gill Michael Barrett Conference call of September 24, 2002 Staff Participant Asimios Malliakos BNL Participant John Lehner Duke Energy Corporation Participants Duncan Brewer Michael Barrett