ML022810537

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Telecommunication with Duke Energy Corp in Support of GSI-189
ML022810537
Person / Time
Site: Mcguire, Catawba, McGuire  Duke Energy icon.png
Issue date: 10/08/2002
From: Malliakos A
NRC/RES/DRAA/PRAB
To: Cunningham M
NRC/RES/DRAA/PRAB
References
Download: ML022810537 (9)
v • d • e


Text

October 8, 2002 MEMORANDUM TO:

Mark A. Cunningham, Chief Probabilistic Risk Analysis Branch Division of Risk Analysis and Applications Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research THRU:

Alan M. Rubin, Section Chief /RA/

Probabilistic Risk Analysis Branch Division of Risk Analysis & Applications Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research FROM:

Asimios Malliakos /RA/

Probabilistic Risk Analysis Branch Division of Risk Analysis and Applications Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research

SUBJECT:

TELECOMMUNICATION WITH DUKE ENERGY CORPORATION IN SUPPORT OF GENERIC SAFETY ISSUE (GSI) 189, "SUSCEPTIBILITY OF ICE CONDENSER AND BWR MARK III CONTAINMENTS TO EARLY FAILURE FROM HYDROGEN COMBUSTION DURING A SEVERE ACCIDENT" LICENSEE :

Duke Energy Corporation FACILITIES:

McGuire, Units 1 and 2, and Catawba, Units 1 and 2 On September 9, 2002, a conference call was conducted between the NRC, Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), and Duke Energy Corporation to discuss information closely related to GSI-189 that was provided in the Generic Environmental Impact Statement for License Renewal of Nuclear Power Plants, NUREG-1437, Supplement 8 for McGuire Nuclear Station, Units 1 and 2, and Supplement 9 for Catawba Nuclear Station, Units 1 and 2. The NRC staff requested information that was relevant to GSI-189 pertaining to station blackout (SBO) frequency, conditional containment failure probability, and early containment failure release category for McGuire Nuclear Station, Units 1 and 2, and for Catawba Nuclear Station, Units 1 and 2. In response to the conference call Duke Energy Corporation sent an E-mail on September 20, 2002 (see Attachment 1).

On September 24, 2002, another conference call was conducted between the NRC, BNL, and Duke Energy Corporation to discuss information that was provided in the above stated E-mail.

In response to this conference call, Duke Energy Corporation sent a follow-up E-mail on September 24, 2002, that includes corrections to their previous E-mail (see Attachment 2).

M. Cunningham 2

Participants of the September 9, 2002, and September 24, 2002, conference calls are provided in Attachment 3.

Attachments: As stated cc/(w/attachments)

A. Notafrancesco Robert Martin, NRR John Lehner, BNL Bob Gill, Duke Energy Corporation Robert Palla, NRR Distribution:

DRAA Chron, PRAB r/f, Malliakos, Malliakos r/f, Rubin, Cunningham, Newberry DOCUMENT NAME: g: AMalliakos/DUKE.wpd OAR in ADAMS? (Y or N) y ADAMS ACCESSION NO.: TEMPLATE NO.

Publicly Available? (Y or N) y DATE OF RELEASE TO PUBLIC SENSITIVE?

OFFICE PRAB PRAB PRAB NAME Malliakos Rubin Cunningham DATE 10/ 08 /02 10/ 08/02 10/ /02

The following information is being provided in response to a request c ommunic ated in a September 9, 2002 c onferenc e c all in whic h GSI-189 was disc ussed. The information provided c onsists of the following:

1. An uncertainty analysis on the SBO frequenc y for revision 3 of the Mc Guire PRA.
2. An uncertainty analysis on the SBO frequenc y for revision 2b of the Catawba PRA.

This has 3 sub-parts: a) base c ase PRA (revision 2b), b) considering the RCP seal replacement, and c ) c onsidering the future addition of the turbine building flood wall.

3. Conditional c ontainment failure probabilities for the McGuire PDSs.
4. Conditional c ontainment failure probabilities for the Catawba PDSs.
5. The SBO early c ontainment failure risk results for McGuire using the 2000 c ensus data.
6. The SBO early c ontainment failure risk results for Catawba using the 2000 c ensus data.
7. The early c ontainment failure release c ategory definitions for Mc Guire.
8. The early c ontainment failure release c ategory definitions for Catawba.

1.0 Non-Seismic SBO Frequency (Includes tornado)

Tornado SBO Frequency Seismic SBO Frequency point estimate 2.66E-06 1.51E-06 7.41E-06 mean 2.95E-06 5

th perc entile 2.17E-07 50 th percentile 1.25E-06 95 th percentile 9.88E-06 2.0 Current Base Case (Revision 2b)

Non-Seismic SBO Frequency (Includes tornado)

Tornado SBO Frequency Seismic SBO Frequency point estimate 1.65E-05 1.92E-06 8.32E-06 mean 1.87E-05 5

th perc entile 9.35E-07 50 th percentile 5.88E-06 95 th percentile 6.39E-05 The seismic analysis has not been revised to inc orporate the revised seal model. RCP seal LOCAs are an important c ontributor to the seismic c ore damage sequenc es and a reduc tion in the seismically induc ed CDF similar to what is observed in the internal event analysis would be expected.

ATTACHMENT 1

With RCP Seal Replac ement Non-Seismic SBO Frequency (Includes tornado)

Tornado SBO Frequency Seismic SBO Frequency point estimate 1.10E-05 1.15E-06 N/ A mean 1.28E-05 5

th perc entile 5.25E-07 50 th perc entile 3.79E-06 95 th perc entile 4.52E-05 6.0 Early c ontainment failure public health risk results for the Catawba SBO seq uenc es are estimated as follows. These results are ba sed on the population within 50 miles of the site from c ensus data for the year 2000.

Initiator Class CDF Latent Fatalities/Yr Early Fatalities/Yr Early Injuries/Yr Thyroid Cancers/Yr Whole Body Person Rem/Yr Internal 1.4E-05 1.25E-08 6.62E-08 1.22E-03 4.48E-05 2.72E+00 External 1.1E-05 9.74E-09 5.17E-08 9.54E-04 3.51E-05 2.13E+00 With RCP Seal Replac ement and Flood Wall Non-Seismic SBO Frequency (Includes tornado)

Tornado SBO Frequency Seismic SBO Frequency point estimate 2.38E-06 1.15E-06 N/ A mean 2.60E-06 5

th perc entile 1.48E-07 50 th percentile 8.32E-07 95 th percentile 8.67E-06 3.0 Containment failure probabilities are developed for eac h plant damage state (PDS) in the PRA. For those PDSs inc luded in the slow station blac kout frequenc y, the c onditional c ontainment failure probabilities for early failure fell into a range from 0.15 to 0.19. For the fast SBO PDSs, the probabilities ranged from 0.16 to 0.26. The late c ontainment failure c onditional probabilities fell into ranges of 0.34 to 0.56 and 0.17 to 0.36 for the slow and fast SBOs respec tively.

4.0 Containment failure probabilities are developed for eac h plant damage state (PDS) in the PRA. For those PDSs included in the slow station blac kout frequenc y, the c onditional c ontainment failure probabilities for early failure fell into a range from 0.16 to 0.21. For the fast SBO PDSs, the probabilities ranged from 0.16 to 0.34. The late c ontainment failure c onditional probabilities fell into ranges of 0.72 to 0.84 and 0.68 to 0.84 for the slow and fast SBOs respec tively.

5.0 Early c ontainment failure public health risk results for the Mc Guire SBO sequenc es are estimated as follows. These results are based on the population within 50 miles of the site from c ensus data for the year 2000.

Initiator Class CDF Latent Fatalities/Yr Early Fatalities/Yr Early Injuries/Yr Thyroid Cancers/Yr Whole Body Person Rem/Yr Internal 1.1E-06 9.21E-05 1.11E-11 9.42E-10 2.86E-06 2.09E-01 External 9.0E-06 9.78E-04 1.19E-10 1.00E-08 3.04E-05 2.22E+00

7.0 Early failure without ex-vessel release Early failure with ex-vessel release Time of Release 6.0 hours0 days <br />0 hours <br />0 weeks <br />0 months <br /> 5.5 hours5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br /> Duration of Release 0.5 hours5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br /> 0.5 hours5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br /> Warning Time 5.5 hours5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br /> 5.0 hours0 days <br />0 hours <br />0 weeks <br />0 months <br /> Energy of Release 2.0E+07 c al/sec 2.0E+07 cal/ sec Elevation of Release 10.0 meters 10.0 meters Release Fractions Xe 1.0E+00 1.0E+00 I

4.4E-02 1.4E-02 Cs-Rb 3.5E-02 1.3E-02 Te-Sb 2.1E-02 1.2E-02 Ba 1.4E-03 8.7E-04 Ru 4.3E-03 1.8E-03 La 2.0E-05 3.8E-05 Sr 1.4E-04 2.2E-04 8.0 Early Failure without ex-vessel release Early Failure with ex-vessel release Time of Release 6.0 hours0 days <br />0 hours <br />0 weeks <br />0 months <br /> 6.0 hours0 days <br />0 hours <br />0 weeks <br />0 months <br /> Duration of Release 0.5 hours5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br /> 0.5 hours5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br /> Warning Time 5.5 hours5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br /> 5.5 hours5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br /> Energy of Release 2.0E+07 c al/sec 2.0E+07 c al/ sec Elevation of Release 10.0 meters 10.0 meters Release Fractions Xe 1.0E+00 1.0E+00 I

5.5E-02 3.8E-02 Cs-Rb 4.8E-02 4.2E-02 Te-Sb 3.0E-02 3.0E-02 Ba 1.7E-03 3.6E-03 Ru 2.2E-03 3.0E-03 La 1.2E-04 1.2E-04 Sr 2.5E-04 7.6E-04

The following information is being provided in resp onse to a req uest c ommunic ated in a September 9, 2002 c onferenc e c all in whic h GSI-189 was disc ussed. The information provided c onsists of the following:

1. An unc ertainty analysis on the SBO frequenc y for revision 3 of the Mc Guire PRA.
2. An unc ertainty analysis on the SBO frequenc y for revision 2b of the Catawba PRA.

This has 3 sub-parts: a) base c ase PRA (revision 2b), b) c onsidering the RCP seal replacement, and c ) considering the future addition of the turbine building flood wall.

3. Conditional c ontainment failure probabilities for the Mc Guire PDSs.
4. Conditional c ontainment failure probabilities for the Catawba PDSs.
5. The SBO early c ontainment failure risk results for Mc Guire using the 2000 c ensus da ta.
6. The SBO early c ontainment failure risk results for Catawba using the 2000 c ensus data.
7. The early c ontainment fa ilure release c ategory definitions for Mc Guire.
8. The early c ontainment fa ilure release c ategory definitions for Catawba.

1.0 Non-Seismic SBO Frequency (Includes tornado)

Tornado SBO Frequency Seismic SBO Frequency point estimate 2.66E-06 1.51E-06 7.41E-06 mean 2.95E-06 5

th perc entile 2.17E-07 50 th perc entile 1.25E-06 95 th perc entile 9.88E-06 2.0 Current Base Case (Revision 2b)

Non-Seismic SBO Frequency (Includes tornado)

Tornado SBO Frequency Seismic SBO Frequency point estimate 1.65E-05 1.92E-06 8.32E-06 mean 1.87E-05 5

th perc entile 9.35E-07 50 th perc entile 5.88E-06 95 th perc entile 6.39E-05 The seismic analysis has not been revised to inc orp orate the revised seal model. RCP seal LOCAs are an important c ontributor to the seismic c ore damage sequences and a reduc tion in the seismic ally induc ed CDF similar to what is observed in the internal event analysis would be expec ted.

With RC P Se a l Re p la c e m e nt Non-Seismic SBO Frequency (Includes torna do)

Torna do SBO Frequency Seismic SBO Frequency p o int e stim a te 1.10E-05 1.15E-06 N/ A m e a n 1.28E-05 5

th p e rc e ntile 5.25E-07 50 th p erc entile 3.79E-06 95 th p erc entile 4.52E-05 ATTACHMENT 2

With RCP Sea l Rep la c em ent and Flood Wa ll Non-Seismic SBO Frequency (Includes tornado)

Tornado SBO Frequency Seismic SBO Frequency p oint estima te 2.38E-06 1.15E-06 N/ A mea n 2.60E-06 5

th p erc entile 1.48E-07 50 th perc entile 8.32E-07 95 th perc entile 8.67E-06 3.0 Containm ent fa ilure proba b ilities a re d evelop ed for eac h p la nt d a ma ge state (PDS) in the PRA. For those PDSs inc lud ed in the slow sta tion b la c kout freq uenc y, the c ond itiona l c onta inment fa ilure p rob a bilities for ea rly fa ilure fell into a ra nge from 0.15 to 0.19. For the fa st SBO PDSs, the p rob ab ilities ra nged from 0.16 to 0.26. The la te c onta inment fa ilure c ond itiona l p rob a bilities fell into ranges of 0.34 to 0.56 a nd 0.17 to 0.36 for the slow a nd fa st SBOs resp ec tively.

4.0 Containm ent fa ilure proba b ilities a re d evelop ed for eac h p la nt d a ma ge state (PDS) in the PRA. For those PDSs inc lud ed in the slow sta tion bla c kout freq uenc y, the c ond itional c onta inment fa ilure p rob a bilities for ea rly fa ilure fell into a ra nge from 0.16 to 0.21. For the fa st SBO PDSs, the p rob ab ilities ra nged from 0.16 to 0.34. The la te c onta inment failure c ond itiona l p rob a bilities fell into ranges of 0.72 to 0.84 a nd 0.68 to 0.84 for the slow a nd fa st SBOs resp ec tively.

5.0 Ea rly c ontainm ent fa ilure p ublic hea lth risk results for the Mc Guire SBO seq uenc es a re estim a ted a s follow s. These results a re ba sed on the p op ula tion within 50 miles of the site from c ensus da ta for the yea r 2000.

Initiator Class CDF Latent Fatalities/Yr Early Fatalities/Yr Early Injuries/Yr Thyroid Cancers/Yr Whole Body Person Rem/Y Internal 1.1E-06 9.21E-05 1.11E-11 9.42E-10 2.86E-06 2.09E-01 External 9.0E-06 9.78E-04 1.19E-10 1.00E-08 3.04E-05 2.22E+00 6.0 Ea rly c ontainm ent fa ilure p ublic hea lth risk results for the Ca tawb a SBO sequenc es a re estim a ted a s follow s. These results a re ba sed on the p op ula tion within 50 miles of the site from c ensus da ta for the yea r 2000.

Initiator Class CDF Early Fatalities/Yr Early Injuries /Yr Latent Fatalities/Y r

Thyroid Cancers/Yr Whole Body Person Rem/Y Internal 1.4E-05 1.25E-08 6.62E-08 1.22E-03 4.48E-05 2.72E+00 External 1.1E-05 9.74E-09 5.17E-08 9.54E-04 3.51E-05 2.13E+00

7.0 Early failure without ex-vessel release Early failure with ex-vessel release Time of Release 6.0 hours0 days <br />0 hours <br />0 weeks <br />0 months <br /> 5.5 hours5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br /> Duration of Release 0.5 hours5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br /> 0.5 hours5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br /> Warning Time 5.5 hours5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br /> 5.0 hours0 days <br />0 hours <br />0 weeks <br />0 months <br /> Energy of Release 2.0E+07 c a l/ sec 2.0E+07 c a l/ sec Elevation of Release 10.0 meters 10.0 m eters Release Fractions Xe 1.0E+00 1.0E+00 I

4.4E-02 1.4E-02 Cs-Rb 3.5E-02 1.3E-02 Te-Sb 2.1E-02 1.2E-02 Ba 1.4E-03 8.7E-04 Ru 4.3E-03 1.8E-03 La 2.0E-05 3.8E-05 Sr 1.4E-04 2.2E-04 8.0 Early Failure without ex-vessel release Early Failure with ex-vessel release Time of Release 6.0 hours0 days <br />0 hours <br />0 weeks <br />0 months <br /> 6.0 hours0 days <br />0 hours <br />0 weeks <br />0 months <br /> Duration of Release 0.5 hours5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br /> 0.5 hours5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br /> Warning Time 5.5 hours5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br /> 5.5 hours5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br /> Energy of Release 2.0E+07 c a l/ sec 2.0E+07 c al/ sec Elevation of Release 10.0 m eters 10.0 meters Release Fractions Xe 1.0E+00 1.0E+00 I

5.5E-02 3.8E-02 Cs-Rb 4.8E-02 4.2E-02 Te-Sb 3.0E-02 3.0E-02 Ba 1.7E-03 3.6E-03 Ru 2.2E-03 3.0E-03 La 1.2E-04 1.2E-04 Sr 2.5E-04 7.6E-04

ATTACHMENT 3 TELECOMMUNICATION PARTICIPANTS Conference call of September 9, 2002 Staff Participants Alan Rubin, RES Allen Notafranchesco, RES Robert Martin, NRR Asimios Malliakos, RES BNL Participant John Lehner Duke Energy Corporation Participants Duncan Brewer Bob Gill Michael Barrett Conference call of September 24, 2002 Staff Participant Asimios Malliakos BNL Participant John Lehner Duke Energy Corporation Participants Duncan Brewer Michael Barrett

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