ML12356A172

Monticello, Unit 1, Kld TR-505, Rev. 1, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates, Part 3 of 8

ML12356A172
Person / Time
Site:	Monticello
Issue date:	11/30/2012
From:	KLD Engineering, PC
To:	Northern States Power Co, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation, Xcel Energy
References
L-MT-12-112 KLD TR-505, Rev 1
Download: ML12356A172 (73)

Text

8 TRANSIT-DEPENDENT AND SPECIAL FACILITY EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES This section details the analyses applied and the results obtained in the form of evacuation time estimates for transit vehicles.

The demand for transit service reflects the needs of three population groups: (1) residents with no vehicles available; (2) residents of special facilities such as schools, pre-schools, daycares and medical facilities; and (3) homebound special needs population.

These transit vehicles mix with the general evacuation traffic that is comprised mostly of"'passenger cars" (pc's). The presence of each transit vehicle in the evacuating traffic stream is represented within the modeling paradigm described in Appendix D as equivalent to two pc's.This equivalence factor represents the longer size and more sluggish operating characteristics of a transit vehicle, relative to those of a pc.Transit vehicles must be mobilized in preparation for their respective evacuation missions.Specifically:

• Bus drivers must be alerted* They must travel to the bus depot* They must be briefed there and assigned to a route or facility These activities consume time. Based on discussion with the offsite agencies, it is estimated that bus mobilization time will average approximately 90 minutes extending from the Advisory to Evacuate, to the time when buses first arrive at the facility to be evacuated.

During this mobilization period, other mobilization activities are taking place. One of these is the action taken by parents, neighbors, relatives and friends to pick up children from school prior to the arrival of buses, so that they may join their families.

Virtually all studies of evacuations have concluded that this "bonding" process of uniting families is universally prevalent during emergencies and should be anticipated in the planning process. The current public information disseminated to residents of the MNGP EPZ indicates that schoolchildren will be evacuated to sister schools (daycares and pre-schools not associated with a school evacuate to a reception center) at emergency action levels of Site Area Emergency or higher, and that parents should pick schoolchildren up at sister schools. As discussed in Section 2, this study assumes a fast breaking general emergency.

Therefore, children are evacuated to sister schools (reception centers or other host facilities for daycares).

Picking up children at school could add to traffic congestion at the schools, delaying the departure of the buses evacuating schoolchildren, which may have to return in a subsequent "wave" to the EPZ to evacuate the transit-dependent population.

This report provides estimates of buses under the assumption that no children will be picked up by their parents (in accordance with NUREG/CR-7002), to present an upper bound estimate of buses required.

It is assumed that children at daycare centers that do not receive transportation assistance from the counties are picked up by parents or guardians and that the time to perform this activity is included in the trip generation times discussed in Section 5.Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant 8-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 The procedure for computing transit-dependent ETE is to:* Estimate demand for transit service* Estimate time to perform all transit functions* Estimate route travel times to the EPZ boundary and to the sister schools/reception centers 8.1 Transit Dependent People Demand Estimate The telephone survey (see Appendix F) results were used to estimate the portion of the population requiring transit service:* Those persons in households that do not have a vehicle available.

• Those persons in households that do have vehicle(s) that would not be available at the time the evacuation is advised.In the latter group, the vehicle(s) may be used by a commuter(s) who does not return (or is not expected to return) home to evacuate the household.

Table 8-1 presents estimates of transit-dependent people. Note: Estimates of persons requiring transit vehicles include schoolchildren.

For those evacuation scenarios where children are at school when an evacuation is ordered, separate transportation is provided for the schoolchildren.

The actual need for transit vehicles by residents is thereby less than the given estimates.

However, estimates of transit vehicles are not reduced when schools are in session.It is reasonable and appropriate to consider that many transit-dependent persons will evacuate by ride-sharing with neighbors, friends or family. For example, nearly 80 percent of those who evacuated from Mississauga, Ontario who did not use their own cars, shared a ride with neighbors or friends. Other documents report that approximately 70 percent of transit dependent persons were evacuated via ride sharing. We will adopt a conservative estimate that 50 percent of transit dependent persons will ride share, in accordance with NUREG/CR-7002.

The estimated number of bus trips needed to service transit-dependent persons is based on an estimate of average bus occupancy of 30 persons at the conclusion of the bus run. Transit vehicle seating capacities typically equal or exceed 60 children on average (roughly equivalent to 40 adults). If transit vehicle evacuees are two thirds adults and one third children, then the number of "adult seats" taken by 30 persons is 20 + (2/3 x10) = 27. On this basis, the average load factor anticipated is (27/40) x 100 = 68 percent. Thus, if the actual demand for service exceeds the estimates of Table 8-1 by 50 percent, the demand for service can still be accommodated by the available bus seating capacity.2[20+ G x 10)] ÷40 x 1.5 = 1.00 Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant 8-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Table 8-1 indicates that transportation must be provided for 1,488 people. Therefore, a total of 50 bus runs are required to transport this population to reception centers.To illustrate this estimation procedure, we calculate the number of persons, P, requiring public transit or ride-share, and the number of buses, B, required for the MNGP EPZ: n P = No. of HH x Yf(% HH with i vehicles) x [(Average HH Size) -i]} x AiCi i=0 Where, A = Percent of households with commuters C = Percent of households who will not await the return of a commuter P = 25,049 x [0.018 x 1.44 + 0.196 x (1.58 -1) x 0.67 x 0.59 + 0.438 x (2.70 -2)x (0.67 x 0.59)2] = 2,975 B = (0.5 x P) -- 30 = 50 These calculations are explained as follows:* All members (1.44 avg.) of households (HH) with no vehicles (1.8%) will evacuate by public transit or ride-share.

The term 25,049 (number of households) x 0.018 x 1.44, accounts for these people." The members of HH with 1 vehicle away (19.6%), who are at home, equal (1.58-1).The number of HH where the commuter will not return home is equal to (25,049 x 0.196 x 0.67 x 0.59), as 67% of EPZ households have a commuter, 59% of which would not return home in the event of an emergency.

The number of persons who will evacuate by public transit or ride-share is equal to the product of these two terms." The members of HH with 2 vehicles that are away (43.8%), who are at home, equal (2.70 -2). The number of HH where neither commuter will return home is equal to 25,049 x 0.438 x (0.67 x 0.59)2. The number of persons who will evacuate by public transit or ride-share is equal to the product of these two terms (the last term is squared to represent the probability that neither commuter will return).* Households with 3 or more vehicles are assumed to have no need for transit vehicles.* The total number of persons requiring public transit is the sum of such people in HH with no vehicles, or with 1 or 2 vehicles that are away from home.The estimate of transit-dependent population in Table 8-1 far exceeds the number of registered transit-dependent persons in the EPZ as provided by the counties (discussed below in Section 8.5). This is consistent with the findings of NUREG/CR-6953, Volume 2, in that a large majority Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant 8-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 of the transit-dependent population within the EPZs of U.S. nuclear plants does not register with their local emergency response agency.8.2 School Population -Transit Demand Table 8-2 presents the school population and transportation requirements for the direct evacuation of all schools within the EPZ for the 2011-2012 school year. This information was provided by the local county emergency management agencies.

The column in Table 8-2 entitled "Buses Required" specifies the number of buses required for each school under the following set of assumptions and estimates:

• No students will be picked up by their parents prior to the arrival of the buses.* While many high school students commute to school using private automobiles (as discussed in Section 2.4 of NUREG/CR-7002), the estimate of buses required for school evacuation do not consider the use of these private vehicles.Bus capacity, expressed in students per bus, is set to 70 for primary schools and 50 for middle and high schools.* Entire staff population evacuates with students, as per state emergency plan.* No allowance is made for student absenteeism, typically 3 percent daily.The counties in the EPZ could introduce procedures whereby the schools are contacted prior to the dispatch of buses from the depot, to ascertain the current estimate of students to be evacuated.

In this way, the number of buses dispatched to the schools will reflect the actual number needed. The need for buses would be reduced by any high school students who have evacuated using private automobiles (if permitted by school authorities).

Those buses originally allocated to evacuate schoolchildren that are not needed due to children being picked up by their parents, can be gainfully assigned to service other facilities or those persons who do not have access to private vehicles or to ride-sharing.

Table 8-3 presents a list of the sister schools for each school, pre-school, and daycare in the EPZ (some pre-schools and daycares evacuate to reception centers or other host facilities).

Students will be transported to these sister schools or reception centers where they will be subsequently retrieved by their respective families.8.3 Medical Facility Demand Table 8-4 presents the census of medical facilities in the EPZ. 290 people have been identified as living in, or being treated in, these facilities.

The capacity and current census for each facility were provided by the Wright County Nuclear Department.

This data includes the number of ambulatory, wheelchair-bound and bedridden patients at each facility.The transportation requirements for the medical facility population are also presented in Table 8-4. The number of ambulance runs is determined by assuming that 2 patients can be accommodated per ambulance trip; the number of bus runs estimated assumes 30 ambulatory patients per trip and 4 wheelchair-bound persons per trip.Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant 8-4 KILD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 8.4 Evacuation Time Estimates for Transit Dependent People EPZ bus resources are assigned to evacuating schoolchildren (if school is in session at the time of the ATE) as the first priority in the event of an emergency.

In the event that the allocation of buses dispatched from the depots to the various facilities and to the bus routes is somewhat"inefficient", or if there is a shortfall of available drivers, then there may be a need for some buses to return to the EPZ from the sister school or reception center after completing their first evacuation trip, to complete a "second wave" of providing transport service to evacuees.

For this reason, the ETE for the transit-dependent population will be calculated for both a one wave transit evacuation and for two waves. Of course, if the impacted Evacuation Region is other than R03 (the entire EPZ), then there will likely be ample transit resources relative to demand in the impacted Region and this discussion of a second wave would likely not apply.When school evacuation needs are satisfied, subsequent assignments of buses to service the transit-dependent population should be sensitive to their mobilization time. Clearly, the buses should be dispatched after people have completed their mobilization activities and are in a position to board the buses when they arrive at the pick-up points.Evacuation Time Estimates for transit trips were developed using both good weather and adverse weather conditions.

Figure 8-1 presents the chronology of events relevant to transit operations.

The elapsed time for each activity will now be discussed with reference to Figure 8-1.Activity:

Mobilize Drivers (A-)B--)C)

Mobilization is the elapsed time from the Advisory to Evacuate until the time the buses arrive at the facility to be evacuated.

It is assumed that for a rapidly escalating radiological emergency with no observable indication before the fact, school bus drivers would likely require 90 minutes to be contacted, to travel to the depot, be briefed, and to travel to the transit-dependent facilities.

Mobilization time is slightly longer in adverse weather -100 minutes when raining, 110 minutes when snowing.Activity:

Board PassenRers (C41D)Based on discussions with offsite agencies, a loading time of 15 minutes (20 minutes for rain and 25 minutes for snow) for school buses is used.For multiple stops along a pick-up route (transit-dependent bus routes) estimation of travel time must allow for the delay associated with stopping and starting at each pick-up point. The time, t, required for a bus to decelerate at a rate, "a", expressed in ft/sec/sec, from a speed,"v", expressed in ft/sec, to a stop, is t = v/a. Assuming the same acceleration rate and final speed following the stop yields a total time, T, to service boarding passengers:

T=t+B+t=B+2t=B+

, a Where B = Dwell time to service passengers.

The total distance, "s" in feet, travelled during the deceleration and acceleration activities is: s = v 2/a. If the bus had not stopped to service Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant 8-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. I passengers, but had continued to travel at speed, v, then its travel time over the distance, s, would be: s/v = v/a. Then the total delay (i.e. pickup time, P) to service passengers is: P = T -=B+a a Assigning reasonable estimates:

B = 50 seconds: a generous value for a single passenger, carrying personal items, to board per stop S v = 25 mph = 37 ft/sec* a = 4 ft/sec/sec, a moderate average rate Then, P = 1 minute per stop. Allowing 30 minutes pick-up time per bus run implies 30 stops per run, for good weather. It is assumed that bus acceleration and speed will be less in rain; total loading time is 40 minutes per bus in rain, 50 minutes in snow.Activity:

Travel to EPZ Boundary (D--)E)School Evacuation Transportation resources available were provided by the EPZ county emergency management agencies and are summarized in Table 8-5. Also included in the table are the number of buses needed to evacuate schools, medical facilities, transit-dependent population and homebound special needs (discussed below in Section 8.5). Wright County jail shelters-in-place, therefore no transportation resources are required (discussed below in Section 8.6). The capacity for buses/wheelchair accessible vehicles differed between the various transportation providers, therefore the total number of ambulatory and wheelchair-bound individuals that can be serviced by each entity is also provided in Table 8-5.Based upon data received, buses service both ambulatory and wheelchair-bound persons.Table 8-5 indicates that there are not enough buses to evacuate the entire ambulatory and wheelchair-bound populations in a single wave. This study assumes buses will first service schoolchildren and then service the remainder of the ambulatory and wheelchair-bound population after returning to the EPZ for a second wave. The table also indicates that there are insufficient ambulances to evacuate the entire bedridden population in a single wave, thus requiring a second wave evacuation for ambulances.

State and county emergency plans indicate that only Emergency Workers can operate a vehicle returning to the EPZ once a general emergency is declared.

Up to 1 hour1.157407e-5 days <br />2.777778e-4 hours <br />1.653439e-6 weeks <br />3.805e-7 months <br /> and 30 minutes would be required to complete just-in-time training and issue dosimetry.

This additional time is incorporated into each of the second wave calculations.

The buses servicing the schools are ready to begin their evacuation trips at 105 minutes after the advisory to evacuate -90 minutes mobilization time plus 15 minutes loading time -in good weather. The UNITES software discussed in Section 1.3 was used to define bus routes along the most likely path from a school being evacuated to the EPZ boundary, traveling toward the appropriate sister school or reception center. This is done in UNITES by interactively selecting the series of nodes from the school to the EPZ boundary.

Each bus route is given an identification number and is written to the DYNEV II input stream. DYNEV computes the route Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant 8-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 length and outputs the average speed for each 5 minute interval, for each bus route. The specified bus routes are documented in Table 8-6 (refer to the maps of the link-node analysis network in Appendix K for node locations).

Data provided by DYNEV during the appropriate timeframe depending on the mobilization and loading times (i.e., 100 to 105 minutes after the advisory to evacuate for good weather) were used to compute the average speed for each route, as follows: Average Speed(f-u)

Z'iý length of link i (mi) 60 min.X hr.length of link i (mi.) 60 mi.{Delaon link( )+ current speed on link i(n -. lhr The average speed computed (using this methodology) for the buses servicing each of the schools in the EPZ is shown in Table 8-7 through Table 8-9 for school evacuation, in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13 for the transit vehicles evacuating transit-dependent persons, which are discussed later. The travel time to the EPZ boundary was computed for each bus using the computed average speed and the distance to the EPZ boundary along the most likely route out of the EPZ. The travel time from the EPZ boundary to the sister school or reception center was computed assuming an average speed of 45 mph, 41 mph, and 36 mph for good weather, rain and snow, respectively.

Speeds were reduced in Table 8-7 through Table 8-9 and in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13 to 55 mph (50 mph for rain -10% decrease -and 44 mph for snow -20%decrease) for those calculated bus speeds which exceed 55 mph. Minnesota state law prohibits school buses from operating above the posted speed limit, which is, at most, 55 mph for the majority of school/daycare bus routes.Table 8-7 (good weather), Table 8-8 (rain) and Table 8-9 (snow) present the following evacuation time estimates (rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes) for schools in the EPZ: (1) The elapsed time from the Advisory to Evacuate until the bus exits the EPZ; and (2) The elapsed time until the bus reaches the sister school/reception center/host facility.

The evacuation time out of the EPZ can be computed as the sum of times associated with Activities A--B--C, C-)D, and D->E (For example: 90 min. + 15 + 17 = 2:05 for Becker High School, with good weather, rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes).

The evacuation time to the sister school or reception center is determined by adding the time associated with Activity E--F (discussed below), to this EPZ evacuation time.Table 8-5 indicates that there are not enough buses to evacuate all students and staff from schools and daycares in a single wave. The county emergency management agencies could consider obtaining additional transportation resources via mutual aid agreements with neighboring counties to fulfill any shortfalls identified in Table 8-5.Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant 8-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 The second-wave ETE for Becker High School is computed as follows for good weather: Bus arrives at sister school at 2:10 in good weather (2:05 to exit EPZ + 3 minute travel time to sister school), rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes.Bus discharges passengers (5 minutes).Conduct just-in-time training and issue dosimetry to Emergency Workers who will return to EPZ = 90 minutes Bus returns to EPZ, travels back to the school and completes second route: 3 minutes (equal to travel time to sister school) + 17 minutes (equal to travel time from the school to the EPZ boundary, i.e., 15.4 miles @ 55 mph) = 20 minutes* Bus loading time: 15 minutes.* Travel to EPZ boundary:

17 minutes (route speed at 3:05 is 55 mph)* Bus exits EPZ at time 2:10 + 0:05 + 1:30 + 0:20 + 0:15 + 0:17 = 4:40 (rounded up to nearest 5 minutes) after the Advisory to Evacuate.Thus, a second wave ETE would require an additional 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> and 35 minutes (4:40 minus 2:05).Evacuation of Transit-Dependent Population The buses dispatched from the depots to service the transit-dependent evacuees will be scheduled so that they arrive at their respective routes after their passengers have completed their mobilization.

Schools, pre-schools and daycares are given first priority in evacuation; since there are insufficient buses to evacuate all schools and daycares in a single wave, the mobilization time for the transit dependent population will be dictated by when buses are able to return to the EPZ after completing a first wave evacuation for schools and daycares (if school is in session).Sub-Areas 5E (encompassing Big Lake) and 5S (encompassing Monticello) have high transit-dependent populations and require significantly more buses than any other Sub-Area (see Table 8-10). Those routes with multiple buses have been assigned such that individual buses or groups of buses are dispatched using varying headways (5 minutes), as shown in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13. The use of bus headways ensures that those people who take longer to mobilize will be picked up. Mobilization time is determined by taking the average school ETE to the sister school (2:15 in good weather) + unload time (5 minutes) + Emergency Worker just-in-time training and dosimetry (90 minutes) + average travel time back to the EPZ (16 minutes in good weather) + 10 minutes (assumed time to drive to start of route), rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes. Average ETE values and travel time back to the EPZ are taken from Table 8-7 through Table 8-9 for good weather, rain and snow, respectively.

Those buses servicing the transit-dependent evacuees will first travel along their pick-up routes, then proceed out of the EPZ. The county emergency plans do not identify pre-defined bus routes or pick-up points to service the transit-dependent population in the EPZ. The 10 bus routes shown graphically in Figure 8-2 and described in Table 8-10 were designed as part of this study to service the major routes through each Sub-Area.

It is assumed that residents will walk to the nearest major roadway and flag down a passing bus, and that they can arrive at the roadway within the 260 minute bus mobilization time (good weather).Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant 8-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 As previously discussed, a pickup time of 30 minutes (good weather) is estimated for 30 individual stops to pick up passengers, with an average of one minute of delay associated with each stop. A longer pickup time of 40 minutes and 50 minutes are used for rain and snow, respectively.

The travel distance along the respective pick-up routes within the EPZ is estimated using the UNITES software.

Bus travel times within the EPZ are computed using average speeds computed by DYNEV, using the aforementioned methodology that was used for school evacuation, with speeds capped at 55 mph (50 mph for rain -10% decrease -and 44 mph for snow -20% decrease) for those calculated bus speeds which exceed 55 mph.Table 8-11 through Table 8-13 present the transit-dependent population evacuation time estimates for each bus route calculated using the above procedures for good weather, rain and snow, respectively.

For example, the ETE for the first group of 4 buses servicing Sub-Area 5E (Route 52) is computed as 260 + 20 + 30 = 5:10 for good weather (rounded up to nearest 5 minutes).

Here, 20 minutes is the time to travel 15.2 miles at 45.6 mph, the average speed output by the model for this route at 260 minutes. The ETE for a second wave (discussed below) is presented in the event there is a shortfall of available buses or bus drivers, as previously discussed.

Emergency Workers re-entering the EPZ to service any of the remaining transit-dependent population have already completed just-in-time training and been issued dosimeters.

The additional 1 hour1.157407e-5 days <br />2.777778e-4 hours <br />1.653439e-6 weeks <br />3.805e-7 months <br /> and 30 minutes to complete these activities will not be incorporated into the second wave transit-dependent calculations.

Activity:

Travel to Reception Centers (E--F)The distances from the EPZ boundary to the reception centers are measured using GIS software along the most likely route from the EPZ exit point to the reception center. The reception centers are mapped in Figure 10-1. For a one-wave evacuation, this travel time outside the EPZ does not contribute to the ETE. For a two-wave evacuation, the ETE for buses must be considered separately, since it could exceed the ETE for the general population.

Assumed bus speeds of 45 mph, 41 mph, and 36 mph for good weather, rain, and snow, respectively, will be applied for this activity for buses servicing the transit-dependent population.

Activity:

Passengers Leave Bus (F-)G)A bus can empty within 5 minutes. The driver takes a 10 minute break.Activity:

Bus Returns to Route for Second Wave Evacuation (G-KC)The buses assigned to return to the EPZ to perform a "second wave" evacuation of transit-dependent evacuees will be those that have already evacuated transit-dependent people who mobilized more quickly. The first wave of transit-dependent people depart the bus, and the bus then returns to the EPZ, travels to its route and proceeds to pick up more transit-dependent evacuees along the route. The travel time back to the EPZ is equal to the travel time to the reception center.Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant 8-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 The second-wave ETE for the first group of 4 buses servicing Sub-Area 5E (Route 52) is computed as follows for good weather: Bus arrives at reception center at 5:25 in good weather (5:10 to exit EPZ + 15 minute travel time to reception center).Bus discharges passengers (5 minutes) and driver takes a 10-minute rest: 15 minutes.Bus returns to EPZ, drives to the start of the route and completes second route: 15 minutes (equal to travel time to reception center) + 20 minutes (equal to travel time to start of route, i.e., 15.2 miles @ 45.6 mph) + 20 minutes (equal to travel time for second route, i.e., 15.2 miles @ 45.6 mph) = 55 minutes* Bus completes pick-ups along route: 30 minutes.* Bus exits EPZ at time 5:10 + 0:15 + 0:15 + 0:55 + 0:30 = 7:05 (rounded up to nearest 5 minutes) after the Advisory to Evacuate.The ETE for the completion of the second wave for all transit-dependent bus routes are provided in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13. The average ETE for a one-wave and a two-wave evacuation of transit-dependent people exceeds the ETE for the general population at the 9 0 th percentile.

The relocation of transit-dependent evacuees from the reception centers to congregate care centers, if the counties decide to do so, is not considered in this study.Evacuation of Medical Facilities The evacuation of these facilities is similar to school evacuation except:* Buses are assigned on the basis of 30 ambulatory and 4 wheelchair-bound patients.Ambulances can accommodate 2 patients.* Loading times of 1 minute, 5 minutes, and 15 minutes per patient are assumed for ambulatory patients, wheelchair-bound patients, and bedridden patients, respectively.

Table 8-4 indicates that 28 bus runs and 18 ambulance runs are needed to service all of the medical facilities in the EPZ. According to Table 8-5, the counties can collectively provide 413 buses, 22 vans, 11 passenger cars and 18 ambulances.

Table 8-5 also provides the total number of ambulatory, wheelchair-bound and bedridden individuals that can be serviced with all available transportation resources compared with the total number of each group that need transportation assistance.

Similar to the transit-dependent population, ambulatory and wheelchair-bound persons in medical facilities will have to wait until transportation resources become available after evacuating the schools and daycares.

Once these transportation resources become available, there will be sufficient resources to evacuate the ambulatory population at the medical facilities in a single wave; however, a second wave would be required to evacuate the wheelchair-bound and bed ridden population at medical facilities.

The Minnesota Emergency Medical Services Regulatory Board (EMSRB) has the ability to pull in the capabilities of additional ambulances from across the state. One of these facilities, North Memorial Ambulance out of Maple Grove/Brooklyn Park could mobilize 6 within a half hour and Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant 8-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 up to 10 within three hours. The 6 ambulances that could be mobilized within 30 minutes will provide the additional ambulances needed to address the shortfall identified in Table 8-5.However, an example of a second-wave evacuation for ambulances is still provided in case those resources from the Minnesota EMSRB are not available.

Mobilization time for ambulatory and wheelchair-bound persons is the same that was used for the transit-dependent population, as these populations need to wait for these buses to return to the EPZ after evacuating schoolchildren (260 minutes, 275 minutes, and 300 minutes for good weather, rain, and snow, respectively).

Mobilization time for bedridden patients is 90 minutes (100 minutes for rain and 110 minutes for snow). Specially trained medical support staff (working their regular shift) will be on site to assist in the evacuation of patients.Additional staff (if needed) could be mobilized over this same timeframe.

Table 8-14 through Table 8-16 summarize the ETE for medical facilities within the EPZ for good weather, rain, and snow. Average speeds output by the model for Scenario 6 (Scenario 7 for rain and Scenario 8 for snow) Region 3, capped at 55 mph (50 mph for rain and 44 mph for snow), are used to compute travel time to EPZ boundary.

The travel time to the EPZ boundary is computed by dividing the distance to the EPZ boundary by the average travel speed. The ETE is the sum of the mobilization time, total passenger loading time, and travel time out of the EPZ. Concurrent loading on multiple buses and ambulances at capacity is assumed such that the maximum loading times for buses and ambulances are 50 and 30 minutes, respectively.

Maximum loading time per bus consists of 30 ambulatory and 4 wheelchair-bound persons. All ETE are rounded to the nearest 5 minutes. For example, the calculation of ETE for the New River Medical Center with 9 ambulatory and 5 wheelchair-bound residents during good weather is: ETE: 260 + (9 x 1) + (4 x 5) + 8 = 297 min. or 5:00 rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes.The following outlines the ETE calculations for a second wave for ambulances:

a. ETE to the EPZ boundary (average bedridden ETE from Table 8-14): 2:10 b. Most of the host medical facilities are located within the Minneapolis-St.

Paul metro area. It is estimated that 40 minutes, on average, would be needed to travel from the EPZ boundary to a host medical facility (i.e., 30 miles @ 45 mph).c. Ambulance discharges passengers (30 minutes and driver takes a 10-minute rest): 40 minutes d. Ambulance returns to EPZ and drives to the medical facility:

40 minutes (equal to assumed travel time to host facility)

+ 10 minutes (equal to average travel time back to medical facility, i.e., 7.8 miles @ 45 mph) = 50 minutes e. Loading Time: 30 minutes f. Travel time to EPZ boundary:

Ambulance is ready to leave medical facility at time 2:10 +0:40 + 0:40 + 0:50 + 0:30 = 4:50. As discussed in Section 7.5, all traffic congestion within the EPZ is clear at this time. Thus, ambulances would be able to travel at free flow speed -assume 55 mph on average -at this time and could travel the 7.8 miles on average to the EPZ boundary in 9 minutes Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant 8-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. I ETE: 2:10 + 0:40 + 0:40 + 0:50 + 0:30 + 0:09 = 5:00 after the Advisory to Evacuate (rounded up to nearest 5 minutes).Therefore, a second wave evacuation for ambulances requires an additional 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> and 50 minutes relative to a single wave evacuation.

As shown in Table 8-5, 2 waves of ambulances would be needed to service the entire bedridden population.

The following outlines the ETE calculations for a second wave for buses that will service wheelchair-bound persons: a. ETE to the EPZ boundary (average wheelchair-bound ETE from Table 8-14): 5:05 b. Like ambulances, it is estimated that 40 minutes, on average, would be needed to travel from the EPZ boundary to a host medical facility in the Minneapolis-St.

Paul metro area (i.e., 30 miles @ 45 mph).c. Bus discharges passengers (20 minutes and driver takes a 10-minute rest): 30 minutes d. Bus returns to EPZ and drives to the medical facility:

40 minutes (equal to assumed travel time to host facility)

+ 10 minutes (equal to average travel time back to medical facility, i.e., 7.8 miles @ 45 mph) = 50 minutes e. Loading Time: 20 minutes (4 persons @ 5 minutes each)f. Travel time to EPZ boundary:

Ambulance is ready to leave medical facility at time 5:05 +0:40 + 0:30 + 0:50 + 0:20 = 7:25. As discussed in Section 7.5, all traffic congestion within the EPZ is clear at this time. Thus, ambulances would be able to travel at free flow speed -assume 55 mph on average -at this time and could travel the 7.8 miles on average to the EPZ boundary in 9 minutes ETE: 5:05 + 0:40 + 0:30 + 0:50 + 0:20 + 0:09 = 7:35 after the Advisory to Evacuate (rounded up to nearest 5 minutes).Therefore, a second wave evacuation for buses servicing wheelchair-bound persons requires an additional 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> and 30 minutes relative to a single wave evacuation.

As shown in Table 8-5, 2 waves of bus service would be needed to service all of the wheelchair-bound medical facility population.

It is assumed that medical facility population is directly evacuated to appropriate host medical facilities.

Relocation of this population to permanent facilities and/or passing through the reception center before arriving at the host facility are not considered in this analysis.Transportation Resources Needed for a More Likely Evacuation Region Table 8-5 indicates the amount of transportation resources needed for an evacuation of all special facilities, transit-dependent population and homebound special needs population within the entire EPZ. As previously discussed, there are deficiencies in the resources, requiring multiple waves to evacuate all persons in each population group. However, it is unlikely that an evacuation of the entire EPZ would materialize.

A more likely case is a situation wherein 2 miles radially and downwind to the EPZ would evacuate.

Region 24 has been selected as an example; this includes Sub-Areas 2, 5E, 5S, 10SE and lOS -covering the population centers of Big Lake, Monticello and Buffalo. A total of 338 buses would be required to evacuate all students and staff, including the schools in Buffalo located in the Shadow Region. Each of the Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant 8-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 four medical facilities are located within these Sub-Areas, therefore as indicated in Table 8-5, a total of 28 buses and 18 ambulances would be required.

In terms of the transit-dependent population, Table 8-10 indicates that 32 buses would be required to evacuate the aforementioned Sub-Areas.

It is highly unlikely that all homebound special needs individuals are located within these Sub-Areas, however, the conservative estimate of 9 buses and 4 ambulances will be considered.

The homebound special needs population is discussed in more detail below in Section 8.5. As indicated in Table 8-5, the counties can collectively provide 413 buses and 18 ambulances.

A total of 407 buses and 22 ambulances would be required to evacuate all population groups within Sub-Areas 2, 5E, 5S, 10SE and 10S. The footnote located at the bottom of Table 8-5 indicates that only 19 wheelchair accessible buses could be collectively provided by the counties, resulting in a second wave that would still be required to evacuate the entire medical facility wheelchair-bound population.

The additional ambulance resources mentioned above that could be mobilized would provide additional resources needed to address the ambulance shortfall.

Under this example, all ambulatory population groups could be evacuated in a single wave.8.5 Special Needs Population The county emergency management agencies have a combined registration for transit-dependent and homebound special needs persons. Based on data provided by the counties, there are an estimated 62 homebound special needs people (40 ambulatory, 21 wheelchair-bound and 1 bedridden) within the Wright County portion of the EPZ and 48 people (29 ambulatory, 13 wheelchair-bound and 6 bedridden) within the Sherburne County portion of the EPZ who require transportation assistance to evacuate.

This results in 69 ambulatory persons, 34 wheelchair-bound persons and 7 bedridden persons for a total special needs population of 110.ETE for Homebound Special Needs Persons Table 8-17 summarizes the ETE for homebound special needs people. The table is categorized by type of vehicle required and then broken down by weather condition.

It is conservatively assumed that ambulatory and wheelchair-bound special needs households are spaced 3 miles apart and bedridden households are spaced 5 miles apart. Van and bus speeds approximate 20 mph between households and ambulance speeds approximate 30 mph in good weather (10%slower in rain, 20% slower in snow). Similar to the transit dependent and medical facility population, ambulatory and wheelchair home bound special needs persons will have to wait until transportation resources become available after evacuating the schools and daycares.There exist sufficient transportation resources to evacuate the homebound special needs persons in a single-wave, once all schools and daycares have been evacuated.

The last HH is assumed to be 5 miles from the EPZ boundary, and the network-wide average speed, capped at 55 mph (50 mph for rain and 44 mph for snow), after the last pickup is used to compute travel time. ETE is computed by summing mobilization time, loading time at first household, travel to subsequent households, loading time at subsequent households, and travel time to EPZ boundary.

All ETE are rounded to the nearest 5 minutes.Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant 8-13 KLD Engineering.

P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 For example, assuming no more than one special needs person per HH implies that 69 ambulatory households and 34 wheelchair-bound households need to be serviced.

The limiting factor is the number of wheelchair-bound transportation resources.

Nine buses are needed from a capacity perspective to service each of the 34 wheelchair-bound households.

These 9 buses can more than adequately service the 69 ambulatory households.

The 9 buses are deployed to service these special needs HH, and each would require at most 12 stops (4 wheelchair bound plus 8 ambulatory).

The following outlines the ETE calculations:

1. Assume 9 buses are deployed, each with about 12 stops, to service a total of 103 HH.2. The ETE is calculated as follows: a. Buses arrive at the first pickup location:

260 minutes b. Load HH members at first pickup: 5 minutes c. Travel to subsequent pickup locations:

11 @ 9 minutes = 99 minutes d. Load HH members at subsequent pickup locations:

11 @ 5 minutes = 55 minutes e. Travel to EPZ boundary:

5 minutes (5 miles @ 55 mph).ETE: 260 + 5 + 99 + 55 + 5 = 7:05 rounded to the nearest 5 minutes 8.6 Correctional Facilities As detailed in Table E-9, there is one correctional facility within the EPZ -Wright County Jail.The total inmate population at this facility is 110 persons. Emergency plans indicate that this facility shelters-in-place, therefore no buses are needed to evacuate this facility and no ETE is computed.Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant 8-14 KLD Engineering.

P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. I (Subsequent Wave)JANm mBrnm EC 0 Time A Advisory to Evacuate B Bus Dispatched from Depot C Bus Arrives at Facility/Pick-up Route D Bus Departs for Sister School/Reception Center E Bus Exits Region F Bus Arrives at Sister School/Reception Center G Bus Available for "Second Wave" Evacuation Service A--B Driver Mobilization B-+C Travel to Facility or to Pick-up Route C-+D Passengers Board the Bus D--E Bus Travels Towards Region Boundary E--F Bus Travels Towards Reception Center Outside the EPZ F->G Passengers Leave Bus; Driver Takes a Break Figure 8-1. Chronology of Transit Evacuation Operations Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant 8-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Figure 8-2. Transit-Dependent Bus Routes 8-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. I Table 8-1. Transit-Dependent Population Estimates Suve Avrg Suve PercentU * .6863 1.44 1.58e 2.70en 2504 1.rv0% 19.6%n 43.8 Tot% Peopl 2,95p5%1488o.2 Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 8-2. School, Pre-School and Daycare Population Demand Estimates 2 Pinewood Elementary School 993 125 16 2 Prairie House 7 1 1 5N Becker High School 800 80 18 5N Becker Intermediate Elementary 656 45 11 School 5N Becker Middle School 700 60 16 5N Becker Primary School 583 79 10 5E Independence Elementary School 888 123 15 5E Liberty Elementary School 703 100 12 SE Big Lake Middle School 816 79 18 5E Big Lake High School 942 104 21 SS Alternative Learning Program 28 5 1 5S Eastview Elementary (Family Center) 565 42 13 5S Little Mountain Elementary School 820 86 13 5S Monticello High School 1,175 128 27 SS Monticello Middle School 957 106 22 5S Swan River Montessori School 175 30 3 lOSE Fieldstone Elementary School 643 77 11 lOSE Kaleidoscope Charter School 404 50 10 lOSE St. Michael-Albertville High School 1,450 130 32 10S Buffalo Community Middle School 1,272 106 28 10S Buffalo High School 1,740 149 38 10S Cornerstone High School 18 10 1 loS Eastern Wright Elementary School 12 8 1 10S St. Francis Parochial School 215 40 4 10S Tatanka Elementary School 545 51 9 10S Wright Technical Center Headstart 50 8 2 10S Wright Technical Center High School 350 40 8 1OSW Maple Lake Elementary School 468 70 8 10SW Maple Lake High School 468 70 11 10SW St. Timothy's Catholic School 120 10 3 lOSW Westside School 25 5 1 S.R1 Discovery Elementary School 259 104 6 S.R Northwinds Elementary School 637 66 11 S.R Parkside Elementary School 424 47 7 S.R Phoenix Learning Center 30 4 1 S.R PRIDE Transitions 16 5 1 1 S.R. is Shadow Region Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-18 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Su-Bue Are Dayar Nam Enolmn Staf Reuie 5N Becker Primary School Early Childhood 183 24 3 5N Red Balloon Child Care Center 55 12 1 5E Agape Christian Pre-School 20 4 1 5S Playhouse Child Care Center 65 12 2 5S Pumpkin Patch Pre-School 30 5 1 10S St. Francis Xavier Child Development 75 10 2 Preschool 10SW Maple Lake Preschool 25 5 1 lOW Bright Eyes Montessori School 19 6 1 lOW Clearwater Headstart 20 3 1 1Entire staff population evacuates with students, as per state emergency plan Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-19 KILD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 8-3. Sister Schools Shoo S Scol0 Clearwater Headstart Annandale Headstart Bright Eyes Montessori School Bethlehem Lutheran Church Fieldstone Elementary School Big Woods Elementary School Maple Lake Elementary School Maple Lake High School Maple Lake PrehSchool Dassel-Cokato Middle and High Maple Lake Preschool School St. Timothy's Catholic School Westside School Alternative Learning Program Eastview Elementary (Family Center)Little Mountain Elementary School Monticello High School Monticello Midde School Maple Grove Senior High School Monticello Middle School Pinewood Elementary School Prairie House Swan River Montessori School Agape Christian Pre-School Princeton High School Red Balloon Child Care Center Big Lake Middle School Independence Elementary School Princeton Middle School Liberty Elementary School Big Lake High School Princeton North Elementary Big___Lake

___High___School____School Buffalo High School Phffaloe Lingh Scene Rockford Community Center Phoenix Learning Center Discovery Elementary School Northwinds Elementary School Parkside Elementary School St. Francis Xavier Child Development Rockford Elementary School Preschool St. Francis Parochial School Tatanka Elementary School Buffalo Community Middle School Cornerstone High School Eastern Wright Elementary School PRIDE Transitions Rockford High School Wright Technical Center Headstart Wright Technical Center High School 8-20 KLD Engineering, P.C.Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-20 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 I Scoo SitrSho Pumpkin Patch Pre-School Rogers High School Playhouse Child Care Center Kaleidoscope Charter School St. Michael Elementary School St. Michael-Albertville Middle St. MichaeI-Albertville High School School Becker High School Becker Intermediate Elementary School Becke Midle ShoolZimmerman Middle and High Becker Middle School School Becker Primary School Becker Primary School Early Childhood Note: Daycares or pre-schools located within a school, evacuate to its respective sister school. All other daycares or pre-schools will evacuate to its designated reception center.Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-21 KILD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 8-4. Medical Facility Transit Demand 5S New River Medical Center Monticello 31 25 9 5 11 2 6 SS New River Medical Center Long Monticello 89 84 3 71 10 18 5 Term Care 5S St. Benedict's Senior Community Monticello 150 146 139 5 2 5 1 10S Buffalo Hospital Buffalo 65 35 13 10 12 3 6'Each bus run can accommodate 30 ambulatory and 4 wheelchair-bound persons Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-22 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. I Table 8-5. Summary of Transportation Resources orignt tyes iviontessuri 0 Wright County Headstart 8 240 Vision of Elk River 105 7,080 60 Vision of Big Lake 50 21 950 River Rider Bus 14 357 Becker Schools 27 6 5 1,955 1 Hoglund Bus Company 68 3,880 American Student Transportation 50 3,500 Rockford School District 25 5 1,620 Don's Bus Company 44 93003 12 Buffalo High School 2 12 M & M Bus Service 20 1,400 St. Benedict's Senior Community 1 10 New River Medical Center 1 13 8 Allina Medical Transit 4 8 Elk River Ambulance 2 4 New River Ambulance 2 4 are are a totai or iu wneeicnair accessilie Duses Tnat can service /j wneeicnair-Douna persons Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-23 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 8-6. Bus Route Descriptions Bus Route- * .4 .*Number Decito Noe.rvre0rmRut tr oEZBudr 1 Clearwater Headstart 143, 60, 59, 58, 57, 63, 62, 61, 64, 65, 66, 67 2 Bright Eyes Montessori School 98, 95, 96, 97, 60, 59, 13 3 Fieldstone Elementary School 1042, 1041, 1040 Maple Lake High School, Maple 4 Lake Elementary School, Maple 420, 394, 419, 919, 440, 519 Lake Preschool 5 St. Timothy's Catholic School 394, 419, 919, 440, 519 6 Westside School 919, 440, 519 7 Alternative Learning Program 590, 349, 30, 31, 32, 33 Eastview Elementary (Family 8 Center), Little Mountain Elementary 354, 352, 351, 350, 349, 30, 31, 32, 33 School, Monticello High School 11 Monticello Middle School 557, 1014, 1016, 388, 348, 349, 30, 31, 32, 33 12 Pinewood Elementary School 388, 348, 349, 30, 31, 32, 33 13 Prairie House 563, 564, 556, 879, 880, 881, 169, 889, 882, 1163, 1018, 168, 167, 166, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33 14 Swan River Montessori School 874, 876, 875, 882, 1163, 1018, 168, 167, 166, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33 15 Agape Christian Pre-School 198, 199, 200, 255, 254, 253, 252, 251, 250, 249, 248, 247, 246, 1155, 245 589, 934, 579, 580, 581, 582, 936, 937, 216, 938, 939, 16 Red Balloon Child Care Center 940, 941, 942, 1072, 293, 294, 295, 726, 727, 728, 725, 729, 730, 782 17 Big Lake Middle School, 1002, 254, 253, 252, 251, 250, 249, 248, 247, 246, Independence Elementary School 1155, 245 19 Liberty Elementary School 1001, 252, 251, 250, 249, 248, 247, 246, 1155, 245 279, 255, 254, 253, 252, 251, 250, 249, 248, 247, 246, 20 Big Lake High School15,24 1155, 245 21 Buffalo High School 623, 1140, 622, 621 St. Francis Parochial School, St.26 Francis Xavier Child Development 184, 185, 186, 187, 908, 429 Preschool 27 Tatanka Elementary School 908, 429, 430 Buffalo Community Middle School, Wright Technical Center High 28 School, Wright Technical Center 186, 187, 908, 429 Headstart, Cornerstone High School, Eastern Wright Elementary School 30 Pumpkin Patch Pre-School 354, 352, 351, 350, 349, 30, 31, 32, 33 Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-24 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Bus Route .- .Nu be Decito Noe Trvre frmRueSat oEZBudr 31 Playhouse Child Care Center 391, 197, 167, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33 32 Kaleidoscope Charter School 1023, 609, 1027 33 St. Michael-Albertville High School 1044, 1043, 1042, 1041, 1040 Becker High School, Becker Intermediate Elementary School, 934, 579, 580, 581, 582, 936, 937, 216, 938, 939, 940, Becker Middle School, Becker 941, 942, 1072, 293, 294, 295, 726, 727, 728 Primary School Early Childhood New River Medical Center, New 40 River Medical Center Long Term 557, 1014, 1016, 388, 348, 349, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34 Care 41 Buffalo Hospital 185, 186, 187, 908, 429 552, 885, 551, 550, 549, 548, 547, 546, 545, 544, 543, 42 St. Benedict's Senior Community 542, 541, 540, 120, 121, 122, 162, 127, 128, 129, 130, 131 577, 562, 563, 564, 556, 879, 880, 881, 169, 889, 882, 1163, 1018, 168, 167, 166, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34 51 Transit Dependent

-Sub-Area 5N 929, 214, 215, 216, 217, 218, 219, 220, 221, 222 1077, 1076, 1075, 1074, 280, 279, 1002, 1123, 1124, 1125, 1126, 1127, 1128, 1129, 1130, 1131, 1132, 1133, 1134, 982, 719, 720, 721, 722, 723, 724, 725, 729, 730, 782 556, 879, 880, 881, 169, 889, 882, 1163, 1018, 168, 167, 197, 391, 174, 868, 387, 386, 385, 384, 383, 354, 1108, 1109, 1110, 1111, 1147, 1112, 1113, 1114, 1115, 1116, 1117, 382 Transit Dependent

-Sub-Areas 5W, 113, 110, 111, 112, 114, 115, 116, 117, 118, 119, 120, 10SW 121, 122, 123, 124, 125, 923, 126, 392, 393 55 Transit Dependent

-Sub-Areas 10N, 305, 979, 306, 588, 222 1ONW 56 Transit Dependent

-Sub-Area 10E 982, 719, 720, 721, 722, 723, 724, 725, 729, 730, 782 57 Transit Dependent

-Sub-Area lOSE 610, 1023, 609, 1027, 1030, 594 181, 182, 183, 184, 185, 186, 187, 906, 699, 901, 698, 58 Transit Dependent

-Sub-Area lOS 69,9,43 697, 696, 430 98, 95, 96, 97, 60, 59, 58, 57, 63, 62, 61, 64, 65, 66, 67, 59 Transit Dependent

-Sub-Area 1OW 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 529, 530, 648, 649, 1 650, 416 Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-25 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 8-7. School Evacuation Time Estimates

-Good Weather Becker High School 15 54.9 17 Becker Intermediate Elementary School 90 15 15.6 54.9 17 Becker Middle School 90 15 15.7 54.9 17 Becker Primary School 90 15 15.7 54.9 17 Independence Elementary School 90 15 5.9 21.2 17 Liberty Elementary School 90 15 5.8 17.7 20 Big Lake Middle School 90 15 6.0 21.2 17 Big Lake High School 90 15 6.6 21.1 19 Becker Primary School Early Childhood 90 15 15.7 54.9 17 Red Balloon Child Care Center 90 15 16.2 52.9 18 Agape Christian Pre-School 90 15 6.3 18.4 20 Pinewood Elementary School 90 15 6.3 52.6 7 Prairie House 90 15 10.1 52.7 11 Alternative Learning Program 90 15 7.1 54.3 8 Eastview Elementary (Family Center) 90 15 5.9 51.9 7 Little Mountain Elementary School 90 15 6.6 51.9 8 Monticello High School 90 15 6.6 51.9 8 Monticello Middle School 90 15 7.0 49.1 9 Swan River Montessori School 90 15 8.2 52.2 9 Fieldstone Elementary School 90 is 0.3 50.0 1 Kaleidoscope Charter School 90 15 1.4 38.5 2 St. Michael-Albertville High School 90 15 0.3 50.0 1 Buffalo Community Middle School 90 15 1.0 37.9 2 Buffalo High School 90 15 1.4 24.2 3 Cornerstone High School 90 15 1.0 37.9 2 Eastern Wright Elementary School 90 15 1.0 37.9 2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 23.6 23.6 23.6 23.4 2.3 10.9 3 3 3 3 31 31 31 31 3 15 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 3.8 2.7 3.4 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 5 4 5 15 15 15 15 Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-26 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 bt. I-rancis rarocniai bcnooi W 1.i !.1 .14 Tatanka Elementary School 90 15 0.2 9.7 1 Wright Technical Center Headstart 90 15 1.0 37.9 2 Wright Technical Center High School 90 15 1.0 37.9 2 Maple Lake Elementary School 90 15 1.2 39.1 2 Maple Lake High School 90 15 1.2 39.1 2 St. Timothy's Catholic School 90 15 1.3 46.0 2 Westside School 90 15 1.1 47.5 1 Discovery Elementary School 1 90 15 0.0 0.0 0 Northwinds Elementary School 1 90 15 0.0 0.0 0 Parkside Elementary School' 90 15 0.0 0.0 0 Phoenix Learning Center' 90 15 0.0 0.0 0 PRIDE Transitions' 90 15 0.0 0.0 0 Playhouse Child Care Center 90 15 7.8 55.0 9 Pumpkin Patch Pre-School 90 15 6.3 51.9 7 St. Francis Xavier Child Development 90 15 2.2 9.5 14 Preschool Maple Lake Preschool 90 15 1.2 39.1 2 Bright Eyes Montessori School 90 15 1.3 30.6 3 rinnuntar Wonrlctnrt QA I J 1, A St 4A7 7 iu.l I 10.6 11.0 11.0 19.3 19.3 19.3 19.3 10.8 11.9 10.5 11.0 10.8 8.6 8.6 10.6 114 14 15 15 26 26 26 26 14 16 14 15 14 11 11 14 19.3 13.1 26 17'Not included in calculation for Maximum and Average ETE values since school is located outside the EPZ 8-27 KID Engineering, P.C.Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-27 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table B-8. School Evacuation Time Estimates

-Rain Becker High School 100 20 15.4 49.5 19 Becker Intermediate Elementary School 100 20 15.6 49.5 19 Becker Middle School 100 20 15.7 49.5 19 Becker Primary School 100 20 15.7 49.5 19 Independence Elementary School 100 20 5.9 15.1 23 Liberty Elementary School 100 20 5.8 12.5 28 Big Lake Middle School 100 20 6.0 15.1 24 Big Lake High School 100 20 6.6 15.2 13 Becker Primary School Early Childhood 100 20 15.1 49.5 19 Red Balloon Child Care Center 100 20 16.2 39.8 24 Agape Christian Pre-School 100 20 6.6 1.7 28 Pinewood Elementary School 100 20 6.3 41.1 9 Prairie House 100 20 10.1 45.0 13 Alternative Learning Program 100 20 7.1 43.7 10 Eastview Elementary (Family Center) 100 20 5.9 41.7 8 Little Mountain Elementary School 100 20 6.6 41.7 9 Monticello High School 100 20 6.6 41.7 9 Monticello Middle School 100 20 7.0 39.2 11 Swan River Montessori School 100 20 8.2 44.7 11 Fieldstone Elementary School 100 20 0.3 45.0 1 Kaleidoscope Charter School 100 20 1.4 36.2 2 St. Michael-Albertville High School 100 20 0.3 45.0 1 Buffalo Community Middle School 100 20 1.0 38.2 2 Buffalo High School 100 20 1.4 40.9 2 Cornerstone High School 100 20 1.0 38.2 2 Eastern Wright Elementary School 100 20 1.0 38.2 2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 23.6 23.6 23.6 23.4 2.3 10.9 3 3 3 3 35 35 35 34 3 16 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 3.8 2.7 3.4 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 6 4 5 16 16 16 16 8-28 KLD Engineering, P.C.Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-28 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 1Not included in calculation for Maximum and Average ETE values since school is located outside the EPZ 8-29 KID Engineering, P.C.Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-29 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 8-9. School Evacuation Time Estimates

-Snow Dt:!Kt:r ni-i ar ClF.IUU.I.LU Becker Intermediate Elementary School 110 25 15.6 4+3.0 41 43.8 21 Becker Middle School 110 25 15.7 43.8 22 Becker Primary School 110 25 15.7 43.8 22 Independence Elementary School 110 25 5.9 10.3 34 Liberty Elementary School 110 25 5.8 7.9 44 Big Lake Middle School 110 25 6.0 10.3 35 Big Lake High School 110 25 6.6 10.1 39 Becker Primary School Early Childhood 110 25 15.7 43.8 22 Red Balloon Child Care Center 110 25 16.2 29.9 32 Agape Christian Pre-School 110 25 6.3 9.6 40 Pinewood Elementary School 110 25 6.3 25.3 15 Prairie House 110 25 10.1 30.5 20 Alternative Learning Program 110 25 7.1 26.8 16 Eastview Elementary (Family Center) 110 25 5.9 25.1 14 Little Mountain Elementary School 110 25 6.6 26.6 15 Monticello High School 110 25 6.6 26.6 15 Monticello Middle School 110 25 7.0 25.4 17 Swan River Montessori School 110 25 8.2 .28.8 17 Fieldstone Elementary School 110 25 0.3 40.0 1 Kaleidoscope Charter School 110 25 1.4 33.1 3 St. Michael-Albertville High School 110 25 0.3 .40.0 1 Buffalo Community Middle School 110 25 1.0J 33.6 2 Buffalo High School 110 25 1.4 35.8 2 Cornerstone High School 110 25 1.0 33.6 2 Eastern Wright Elementary School 110 25 1.0 33.6 2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 23.6 23.6 23.6 23.4 2.3 10.9')I a 4 4 4 39 39 39 39 4 18 17 I3.: 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 3.8 2.7 3.4 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 6 5 6 18 18 18 18 Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-30 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 1Not included in calculation for Maximum and Average ETE values since school is located outside the EPZ Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-31 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 8-10. Summary of Transit-Dependent Bus Routes N. ofLnt Rout Bue Rot Decito (. i.)50 2 Sub-Area 2 -CR-75 EB into Monticello then to reception center 13.1 51 6 Sub-Area 5N -US 10 WB into Becker then 140th Ave SE to CR 4 to CR 11 north 13.7 then to reception center 52 12 Sub-Area 5E -CR 73 SB to Hiawatha Ave W around Lake Mitchell then SB on CR 5 15.2 to CR 43 then to reception center 53 10 Sub-Area 5S -County Hwy 75 in downtown Monticello to SR-25 SB to School Blvd 9.3 then to reception center 54 5 Sub-Areas 5W, IOSW -SB on CR 8 NW into Maple Lake then EB on CR 37 NW to I- 26.8 94 EB in Albertville then to reception center 55 2 Sub-Areas 1ON, 1ONW -NB on CR 58 into Clear Lake then EB on US 10 to CR 54 to 14.2 CR 53 to 57th St SE then to reception center 56 2 Sub-Area 10E -NB on CR 15 to CR 4 then to reception center 6.1 57 2 Sub-Area lOSE -SB on CR 19 through Albertville to CR 18 to 60th St NE to Iffert 11.7 Ave NE to CR 35 then to reception center 58 6 Sub-Area lOS -SB on SR 25 into Buffalo then EB on CR 35 to reception center 13.2 Sub-Area 1OW -Main St in Clearwater to SR 24 SB to CR 6 to SR 55 EB then to 35.0 reception center 8-32 KID Engineering, P.C.Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-32 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. I Table 8-11. Transit-Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates

-Good Weather 1 260 13.1 I 55.0 14 30 50+ I 4 4 +2 265 I 13.1 I 55.0 14 30 1-2 260 13.7 55.0 15 30 51 2-4 265 13.7 55.0 15 30 4-6 270 13.7 55.0 15 30 1-4 260 15.2 45.6 20 30 52 4-8 265 15.2 45.6 20 30 8-12 270 15.2 45.6 20 30 1-4 260 9.3 50.7 11 30 53 4-7 265 9.3 50.7 11 30 7-10 270 9.3 50.7 11 30 1-3 260 26.8 55.0 29 30 54 3-5 265 26.8 55.0 29 30 1 260 14.2 44.9 19 30 55________ 2 265 14.2 44.9 19 30 1 260 6.1 43.9 8 30 56____56______ 2 265 6.1 43.9 8 30 1 260 11.7 53.2 13 30 57 2 265 11.7 53.2 13 30 1-2 260 13.2 46.9 17 30 58 2-4 265 13.2 46.9 17 30 4-6 270 13.2 46.9 17 30 8.6 11 5 10 40 30 8.6 11 5 10 40 30 19.8 26 5 10 56 30 19.8 26 5 10 56 30 19.8 26 5 10 56 30 10.9 15 5 10 55 30 10.9 15 5 10 55 30 10.9 15 5 10 55 30 8.8 12 5 10 34 30 8.8 12 5 10 34 30 8.8 12 5 10 34 30 8.8 12 5 10 70 30 8.8 12 5 10 70 30 19.8 26 5 10 64 30 19.8 26 5 10 64 30 10.9 15 5 10 32 30 10.9 15 5 10 32 30 8.2 11 5 10 37 30 8.2 11 5 10 37 30 8.1 11 5 10 45 30 8.1 11 5 10 45 30 8.1 11 5 10 45 30 8.8 12 5 10 92 30 8.8 12 5 10 92 30 8.8 12 5 10 92 30 1 260 35.0 1 52.2 40 30 59 2 1 265 [ 35.0 1 52.2 1 4 1_30 3 270 35.0 1 52.2 40 30 Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-33 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 8-12. Transit-Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates

-Rain 1 50 275 I 13.1 1 50.0 16 40 I 2 280 I 13.1 I 50.0 16 40 1-2 275 13.7 50.0 16 40 51 2-4 280 13.7 50.0 16 40 4-6 285 13.7 50.0 16 40 1-4 275 15.2 41.1 22 40 52 4-8 280 15.2 41.1 22 40 8-12 285 15.2 41.1 22 40 1-4 275 9.3 45.7 12 40 53 4-7 280 9.3 45.7 12 40 7-10 285 9.3 45.7 12 40 1-3 275 26.8 50.0 32 40 3-5 280 26.8 50.0 32 40 1 275 14.2 40.4 21 40 55 55 2 280 14.2 40.4 21 40 1 275 6.1 39.6 9 40 5 2 280 6.1 39.6 9 40 1 275 11.7 47.9 15 40 2 280 11.7 47.9 15 40 1-2 275 13.2 42.3 19 40 58 2-4 280 13.2 42.3 19 40____ 4-6 285 13.2 42.3 19 40 8.6 13 5 10 44 40 8.6 13 5 10 44 40 19.8 29 5 10 62 40 19.8 29 5 10 62 40 19.8 29 5 10 62 40 10.9 16 5 10 60 40 10.9 16 5 10 60 40 10.9 16 5 10 60 40 8.8 13 5 10 37 40 8.8 13 5 10 37 40 8.8 13 5 10 37 40 8.8 13 5 10 77 40 8.8 13 5 10 77 40 19.8 29 5 10 71 40 19.8 29 5 10 71 40 10.9 16 5 10 34 40 10.9 16 5 10 34 40 8.2 12 5 10 41 40 8.2 12 5 10 41 40 8.1 12 5 10 49 40 8.1 12 5 10 49 40 8.1 12 5 10 49 40 8.8 13 5 10 102 40 8.8 13 5 10 102 40 8.8 13 5 10 102 40 1 275 1 35.0 1 47.0 45 40 59 2 280 35.0 47.0 45 [ 40-rI vtrn I A7 n Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant 8-34 KLD Engineering, P.C.Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-34 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 8-13. Transit Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates

-Snow so I 2 U.1 1 ".u 0.0-LU 305 13.1 1 44.0 18 50 8.6 14 5 10 50 50 1-2 300 13.7 44.0 19 so 51 2-4 305 13.7 44.0 19 50 4-6 310 13.7 44.0 19 50 1-4 300 15.2 36.4 25 50 52 4-8 305 15.2 36.4 25 50 8-12 310 15.2 36.4 25 50 1-4 300 9.3 40.6 14 50 53 4-7 305 9.3 40.6 14 50 7-10 310 9.3 40.6 14 50 1-3 300 26.8 44.0 O37 5 54 3-5 305 26.8 44.0 37 50 1 300 14.2 35.9 24 50 55 2 305 14.2 35.9 24 50 1 300 6.1 35.1 10 50 56 2 305 6.1 35.1 10 50 1 300 11.7 42.6 16 50 57 2 305 11.7 42.6 16 50 1-2 300 13.2 37.6 21 50 58 2-4 305 13.2 37.6 21 50 4-6 310 13.2 37.6 21 50 19.8 33 5 10 70 50 19.8 33 5 10 70 50 19.8 33 5 10 70 50 10.9 18 5 10 68 50 10.9 18 5 10 68 50 10.9 18 5 10 68 50 8.8 15 5 10 42 50 8.8 15 5 10 42 50 8.8 15 5 10 42 50 8.8 15 5 10 88 50 8.8 15 5 10 88 50 19.8 33 5 10 80 50 19.8 33 5 10 80 50 10.9 18 5 10 39 50 10.9 18 5 10 39 50 8.2 14 5 10 47 50 8.2 14 5 10 47 50 8.1 14 5 10 56 50 8.1 14 5 10 56 50 8.1 14 5 10 56 50 8.8 15 5 10 116 50 8.8 15 5 10 116 50 1 300 35.0 1 41.7 50 so 59 2 305 35.0 41.7 [ 50 1 50~in in rIn Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant 8-35 KLD Engineering, P.C.Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-35 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. I Table 8-14. Medical Facility Evacuation Time Estimates

-Good Weather Ambuiatory LbU New River Medical Center t t +29 7.1i 8 Wheelchair bound 260 5 5 Bedridden 90 15 11 30 7.1 8 New River Medical Ambulatory 260 1 3 23 7.1 8 Center Long Term Wheelchair bound 260 5 71 7.1 8 Care Bedridden 90 15 10 30 7.1 8 St. Benedicts Ambulatory 260 1 139 50 15.6 17 Senior Community Wheelchair bound 260 5 5 15.6 17 Bedridden 90 15 2 30 15.6 17 Ambulatory 260 1 13 33 1.2 1 Buffalo Hospital Wheelchair bound 260 5 10 1.2 1 Bedridden 90 15 12 30 1.2 4 Maximum ETE: Averge ETE: I]Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-36 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. I Table 8-15. Medical Facility Evacuation Time Estimates

-Rain Ambulatory 1 9 7.1 New River Medical Center Wheelchair bound 29 275 5 5 7.1 9-t I I- 1 Bedridden 100 15 11 30 7.1 24 New River Medical Ambulatory 275 1 3 23 7.1 9 Center Long Term Wheelchair bound 275 5 71 7.1 9 Care Bedridden 100 15 10 30 7.1 24 St. Benedict's Ambulatory 275 1 139 50 15.6 19 Senior Community Wheelchair bound 275 5 5 15.6 19 Bedridden 100 15 2 30 15.6 19 Ambulatory 275 1 13 33 1.2 2 1.2 2 Buffalo Hospital Wheelchair bound 275 10 I. I..I +8-37 KID Engineering, P.C.Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-37 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. I Table 8-16. Medical Facility Evacuation Time Estimates

-Snow AMDUlawry Juu-I New River Medical Center 29 Wheelchair bound I 300 5 5/.~ I :L dI I I I I Bedridden 110 15 11 30 7.1 22 New River Medical Ambulatory 300 1 3 23 7.1 10 Center Long Term Wheelchair bound 300 5 71 7.1 10 Care Bedridden 110 15 10 30 7.1 22 St. Benedict's Ambulatory 300 1 139 50 15.6 21 Senedits Wheelchair bound 300 5 5 15.6 21 Bedridden 110 15 2 30 15.6 21 2:45 Ambulatory 300 1 13 33 1.2 Buffalo Hospital Wheelchair bound 300 5 10 1.2 2 5:35 2 5:35 I I I I Bedridden 110 15 12 30 1.2 L IJ Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-38 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 8-17. Homebound Special Needs Population Evacuation Time Estimates 8-39 KLD Engineering, P.C.Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-39 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. I 9 TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT STRATEGY This section discusses the suggested traffic control and management strategy that is designed to expedite the movement of evacuating traffic. The resources required to implement this strategy include:* Personnel with the capabilities of performing the planned control functions of traffic guides (preferably, not necessarily, law enforcement officers).

• Traffic Control Devices to assist these personnel in the performance of their tasks. These devices should comply with the guidance of the Manual of Uniform Traffic Control Devices (MUTCD) published by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) of the U.S.D.O.T.

All state and most county transportation agencies have access to the MUTCD, which is available on-line: http://mutcd.fhwa.dot.gov which provides access to the official PDF version." A plan that defines all locations, provides necessary details and is documented in a format that is readily understood by those assigned to perform traffic control.The functions to be performed in the field are: 1. Facilitate evacuating traffic movements that safely expedite travel out of the EPZ.2. Discourage traffic movements that move evacuating vehicles in a direction which takes them significantly closer to the power plant, or which interferes with the efficient flow of other evacuees.The terms "facilitate" and "discourage" are employed rather than "enforce" and "prohibit" to indicate the need for flexibility in performing the traffic control function.

There are always legitimate reasons for a driver to prefer a direction other than that indicated.

For example: " A driver may be traveling home from work or from another location, to join other family members prior to evacuating." An evacuating driver may be travelling to pick up a relative, or other evacuees." The driver may be an emergency worker en route to perform an important activity.The implementation of a plan must also be flexible enough for the application of sound judgment by the traffic guide.The traffic management plan is the outcome of the following process: 1. The existing TACPs identified by the offsite agencies in their existing emergency plans serve as the basis of the traffic management plan, as per NUREG/CR-7002.

2. The existing TACPs and how they were applied in this study are discussed in Appendix G.3. Computer analysis of the evacuation traffic flow environment (see Figures 7-3 through 7-9). As discussed in Section 7.3, congestion within the EPZ is clear by 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> and 15 minutes after the ATE. Based on the limited traffic congestion within the EPZ, no additional TACPs are identified as a result of this study. The existing traffic management plans are adequate.Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant 9-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 The use of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) technologies (if available) could reduce manpower and equipment needs, while still facilitating the evacuation process. Dynamic Message Signs (DMS) could be placed within the EPZ to provide information to travelers regarding traffic conditions, route selection, and reception center information.

DMS could also be placed outside of the EPZ to warn motorists to avoid using routes that may conflict with the flow of evacuees away from the power plant. Highway Advisory Radio (HAR) could be used to broadcast information to evacuees en route through their vehicle stereo systems. Automated Traveler Information Systems (ATIS) could also be used to provide evacuees with information.

Internet websites could provide traffic and evacuation route information before the evacuee begins their trip, while on board navigation systems (GPS units), cell phones, and pagers could be used to provide information en route. These are only several examples of how ITS technologies could benefit the evacuation process. Consideration could be given that ITS technologies be used to facilitate the evacuation process, and any additional signage placed should consider evacuation needs.The ETE analysis treated all controlled intersections that are existing TACP locations in the offsite agency plans as being controlled by actuated signals.Chapters 2N and 5G, and Part 6 of the 2009 MUTCD are particularly relevant and could be reviewed during emergency response training.The ETE calculations reflect the assumption that all "external-external" trips are interdicted and diverted after 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> have elapsed from the ATE.All transit vehicles and other responders entering the EPZ to support the evacuation are assumed to be unhindered by personnel manning TACPs.Study Assumptions 5 and 6 in Section 2.3 discuss TACP staffing schedules and operations.

Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 9-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 10 EVACUATION ROUTES Evacuation routes are comprised of two distinct components:

• Routing from a Sub-Area being evacuated to the boundary of the Evacuation Region and thence out of the EPZ.* Routing of transit-dependent evacuees from the EPZ boundary to reception centers.Evacuees will select routes within the EPZ in such a way as to minimize their exposure to risk.This expectation is met by the DYNEV II model routing traffic away from the location of the plant, to the extent practicable.

The DTRAD model satisfies this behavior by routing traffic so as to balance traffic demand relative to the available highway capacity to the extent possible.See Appendices B through D for further discussion.

The routing of transit-dependent evacuees from the EPZ boundary to reception centers is designed to minimize the amount of travel outside the EPZ, from the points where these routes cross the EPZ boundary.Figure 10-1 presents a map showing the general population reception centers for evacuees and Sister Schools for schoolchildren.

The major evacuation routes for the EPZ are presented in Figure 10-2.It is assumed that all school evacuees will be taken to the appropriate sister school and subsequently picked up by parents or guardians.

It is also assumed that all preschool and daycare children will be taken to the appropriate reception center and subsequently picked up by parents or guardians.

Transit-dependent evacuees are transported to the nearest reception center for each county. This study does not consider the transport of evacuees from reception centers to congregate care centers, if the counties do make the decision to relocate evacuees.Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant 10-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Figure 10-1. General Population Reception Centers and Sister Schools 10-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 10-2 KLD Engineering, PeC.Rev. 1 Figure 10-2. Evacuation Route Map Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 10-3 KILD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 11 SURVEILLANCE OF EVACUATION OPERATIONS There is a need for surveillance of traffic operations during the evacuation.

There is also a need to clear any blockage of roadways arising from accidents or vehicle disablement.

Surveillance can take several forms.1. Traffic control personnel, located at TACPs, provide fixed-point surveillance.

2. Ground patrols may be undertaken along well-defined paths to ensure coverage of those highways that serve as major evacuation routes.3. Aerial surveillance of evacuation operations may also be conducted using helicopter or fixed-wing aircraft, if available.

4. Cellular phone calls (if cellular coverage exists) from motorists may also provide direct field reports of road blockages.

These concurrent surveillance procedures are designed to provide coverage of the entire EPZ as well as the area around its periphery.

It is the responsibility of the Counties to support an emergency response system that can receive messages from the field and be in a position to respond to any reported problems in a timely manner. This coverage should quickly identify, and expedite the response to any blockage caused by a disabled vehicle.Tow Vehicles In a low-speed traffic environment, any vehicle disablement is likely to arise due to a low-speed collision, mechanical failure or the exhaustion of its fuel supply. In any case, the disabled vehicle can be pushed onto the shoulder, thereby restoring traffic flow. Past experience in other emergencies indicates that evacuees who are leaving an area often perform activities such as pushing a disabled vehicle to the side of the road without prompting.

While the need for tow vehicles is expected to be low under the circumstances described above, it is still prudent to be prepared for such a need. Consideration should be given that tow trucks with a supply of gasoline be deployed at strategic locations within, or just outside, the EPZ. These locations should be selected so that:* They permit access to key, heavily loaded, evacuation routes.* Responding tow trucks would most likely travel counter-flow relative to evacuating traffic.Consideration should also be given that the state and local emergency management agencies encourage gas stations to remain open during the evacuation.

Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant 11-1 KILD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 12 CONFIRMATION TIME It is necessary to confirm that the evacuation process is effective in the sense that the public is complying with the Advisory to Evacuate.

The EPZ county radiological emergency plans do not discuss a procedure for confirming evacuation.

Should procedures not already exist, the following alternative or complementary approach is suggested.

The suggested procedure employs a stratified random sample and a telephone survey. The size of the sample is dependent on the expected number of households that do not comply with the Advisory to Evacuate.

It is reasonable to assume for the purpose of estimating sample size that at least 80 percent of the population within the EPZ will comply with the Advisory to Evacuate.On this basis, an analysis could be undertaken (see Table 12-1) to yield an estimated sample size of approximately 300.The confirmation process should start at about 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> after the Advisory to Evacuate, which is when approximately 90 percent of evacuees have completed their mobilization activities (see Figure 5-4). At this time, virtually all evacuees will have departed on their respective trips and the local telephone system will be largely free of traffic.As indicated in Table 12-1, approximately 7Y2 person hours are needed to complete the telephone survey. If six people are assigned to this task, each dialing a different set of telephone exchanges (e.g., each person can be assigned a different set of Sub-Areas), then the confirmation process will extend over a timeframe of about 75 minutes. Thus, the confirmation should be completed before the evacuated area is cleared. Of course, fewer people would be needed for this survey if the Evacuation Region were only a portion of the EPZ. Use of modern automated computer controlled dialing equipment or other technologies (e.g., reverse 911 or equivalent if available) can significantly reduce the manpower requirements and the time required to undertake this type of confirmation survey.If this method is indeed used by the offsite agencies, consideration should be given to maintain a list of telephone numbers within the EPZ in the EOC at all times. Such a list could be purchased from vendors and could be periodically updated. As indicated above, the confirmation process should not begin until 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> after the Advisory to Evacuate, to ensure that households have had enough time to mobilize.

This 2-hour timeframe will enable telephone operators to arrive at their workplace, obtain a call list and prepare to make the necessary phone calls.Should the number of telephone responses (i.e., people still at home) exceed 20 percent, then the telephone survey should be repeated after an hour's interval until the confirmation process is completed.

Other techniques could also be considered.

After traffic volumes decline, the personnel manning TACPs can be redeployed to travel through residential areas to observe and to confirm evacuation activities.

Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant 12-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Table 12-1. Estimated Number of Telephone Calls Required for Confirmation of Evacuation Problem Definition Estimate number of phone calls, n, needed to ascertain the proportion, F of households that have not evacuated.

Reference:

Burstein, H., Attribute Sampling McGraw Hill, 1971 Given:* No. of households plus other facilities, N, within the EPZ (est.) = 25,500* Est. proportion, F, of households that will not evacuate = 0.20* Allowable error margin, e: 0.05* Confidence level, a: 0.95 (implies A = 1.96)Applying Table 10 of cited reference, p=F+e=0.25; q= l-p=0.75 A 2 pq + e S=- 308 Finite population correction:

nN nF T -= 304 n+N-1 Thus, some 300 telephone calls will confirm that approximately 20 percent of the population has not evacuated.

If only 10 percent of the population does not comply with the Advisory to Evacuate, then the required sample size, nF = 214.Est. Person Hours to complete 300 telephone calls Assume:* Time to dial using touch tone (random selection of listed numbers):

30 seconds* Time for 6 rings (no answer): 36 seconds* Time for 4 rings plus short conversation:

60 sec.* Interval between calls: 20 sec.Person Hours: 300[30 + 0.8(36) + 0.2(60) + 20]3600 7.6 3600 Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant 12-2 KID Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. I APPENDIX A Glossary of Traffic Engineering Terms A. GLOSSARY OF TRAFFIC ENGINEERING TERMS Table A-i. Glossary of Traffic Engineering Terms Ter Deiito Analysis Network Link Measures of Effectiveness Node Origin Prevailing Roadway and Traffic Conditions A graphical representation of the geometric topology of a physical roadway system, which is comprised of directional links and nodes.A network link represents a specific, one-directional section of roadway. A link has both physical (length, number of lanes, topology, etc.) and operational (turn movement percentages, service rate, free-flow speed) characteristics.

Statistics describing traffic operations on a roadway network.A network node generally represents an intersection of network links. A node has control characteristics, i.e., the allocation of service time to each approach link.A location attached to a network link, within the EPZ or Shadow Region, where trips are generated at a specified rate in vehicles per hour (vph). These trips enter the roadway system to travel to their respective destinations.

Relates to the physical features of the roadway, the nature (e.g., composition) of traffic on the roadway and the ambient conditions (weather, visibility, pavement conditions, etc.).Maximum rate at which vehicles, executing a specific turn maneuver, can be discharged from a section of roadway at the prevailing conditions, expressed in vehicles per second (vps) or vehicles per hour (vph).Maximum number of vehicles which can pass over a section of roadway in one direction during a specified time period with operating conditions at a specified Level of Service (The Service Volume at the upper bound of Level of Service, E, equals Capacity).

Service Volume is usually expressed as vehicles per hour (vph).The total elapsed time to display all signal indications, in sequence.The cycle length is expressed in seconds.A single combination of signal indications.

The interval duration is expressed in seconds. A signal phase is comprised of a sequence of signal intervals, usually green, yellow, red.Service Rate Service Volume Signal Cycle Length Signal Interval Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant Evacuation Time Estimate A-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Ter Deiito Signal Phase Traffic (Trip) Assignment Traffic Density Traffic (Trip) Distribution Traffic Simulation Traffic Volume Travel Mode Trip Table or Origin-Destination Matrix Turning Capacity A set of signal indications (and intervals) which services a particular combination of traffic movements on selected approaches to the intersection.

The phase duration is expressed in seconds.A process of assigning traffic to paths of travel in such a way as to satisfy all trip objectives (i.e., the desire of each vehicle to travel from a specified origin in the network to a specified destination) and to optimize some stated objective or combination of objectives.

In general, the objective is stated in terms of minimizing a generalized "cost". For example, "cost" may be expressed in terms of travel time.The number of vehicles that occupy one lane of a roadway section of specified length at a point in time, expressed as vehicles per mile (vpm).A process for determining the destinations of all traffic generated at the origins. The result often takes the form of a Trip Table, which is a matrix of origin-destination traffic volumes.A computer model designed to replicate the real-world operation of vehicles on a roadway network, so as to provide statistics describing traffic performance.

These statistics are called Measures of Effectiveness.

The number of vehicles that pass over a section of roadway in one direction, expressed in vehicles per hour (vph). Where applicable, traffic volume may be stratified by turn movement.Distinguishes between private auto, bus, rail, pedestrian and air travel modes.A rectangular matrix or table, whose entries contain the number of trips generated at each specified origin, during a specified time period, that are attracted to (and travel toward) each of its specified destinations.

These values are expressed in vehicles per hour (vph) or in vehicles.The capacity associated with that component of the traffic stream which executes a specified turn maneuver from an approach at an intersection.

A-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant Evacuation Time Estimate A-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 APPENDIX B DTRAD: Dynamic Traffic Assignment and Distribution Model B. DYNAMIC TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT AND DISTRIBUTION MODEL This section describes the integrated dynamic trip assignment and distribution model named DTRAD (Dynamic Traffic Assignment and Distribution) that is expressly designed for use in analyzing evacuation scenarios.

DTRAD employs logit-based path-choice principles and is one of the models of the DYNEVII System. The DTRAD module implements path-based Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTA) so that time dependent Origin-Destination (OD) trips are "assigned" to routes over the network based on prevailing traffic conditions.

To apply the DYNEV II System, the analyst must specify the highway network, link capacity information, the time-varying volume of traffic generated at all origin centroids and, optionally, a set of accessible candidate destination nodes on the periphery of the EPZ for selected origins.DTRAD calculates the optimal dynamic trip distribution (i.e., trip destinations) and the optimal dynamic trip assignment (i.e., trip routing) of the traffic generated at each origin node traveling to its set of candidate destination nodes, so as to minimize evacuee travel "cost." Overview of Integrated Distribution and Assignment Model The underlying premise is that the selection of destinations and routes is intrinsically coupled in an evacuation scenario.

That is, people in vehicles seek to travel out of an area of potential risk as rapidly as possible by selecting the "best" routes. The model is designed to identify these"best" routes in a manner that realistically distributes vehicles from origins to destinations and routes them over the highway network, in a consistent and optimal manner, reflecting evacuee behavior.For each origin, a set of "candidate destination nodes" is selected by the software logic and by the analyst to reflect the desire by evacuees to travel away from the power plant and to access major highways.

The specific destination nodes within this set that are selected by travelers and the selection of the connecting paths of travel, are both determined by DTRAD. This determination is made by a logit-based path choice model in DTRAD, so as to minimize the trip"cost", as discussed later.The traffic loading on the network and the consequent operational traffic environment of the network (density, speed, throughput on each link) vary over time as the evacuation takes place.The DTRAD model, which is interfaced with the DYNEV simulation model, executes a succession of "sessions" wherein it computes the optimal routing and selection of destination nodes for the conditions that exist at that time.Interfacing the DYNEV Simulation Model with DTRAD The DYNEV II system reflects NRC guidance that evacuees will seek to travel in a general direction away from the location of the hazardous event. An algorithm was developed to support the DTRAD model in dynamically varying the Trip Table (O-D matrix) over time from one DTRAD session to the next. Another algorithm executes a "mapping" from the specified"geometric" network (link-node analysis network) that represents the physical highway system, to a "path" network that represents the vehicle [turn] movements.

DTRAD computations are performed on the "path" network: DYNEV simulation model, on the "geometric" network.Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant B-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. I DTRAD Description DTRAD is the DTA module for the DYNEV II System.When the road network under study is large, multiple routing options are usually available between trip origins and destinations.

The problem of loading traffic demands and propagating them over the network links is called Network Loading and is addressed by DYNEVII using macroscopic traffic simulation modeling.

Traffic assignment deals with computing the distribution of the traffic over the road network for given O-D demands and is a model of the route choice of the drivers. Travel demand changes significantly over time, and the road network may have time dependent characteristics, e.g., time-varying signal timing or reduced road capacity because of lane closure, or traffic congestion.

To consider these time dependencies, DTA procedures are required.The DTRAD DTA module represents the dynamic route choice behavior of drivers, using the specification of dynamic origin-destination matrices as flow input. Drivers choose their routes through the network based on the travel cost they experience (as determined by the simulation model). This allows traffic to be distributed over the network according to the time-dependent conditions.

The modeling principles of D-TRAD include:* It is assumed that drivers not only select the best route (i.e., lowest cost path) but some also select less attractive routes. The algorithm implemented by DTRAD archives several"efficient" routes for each O-D pair from which the drivers choose.* The choice of one route out of a set of possible routes is an outcome of "discrete choice modeling".

Given a set of routes and their generalized costs, the percentages of drivers that choose each route is computed.

The most prevalent model for discrete choice modeling is the logit model. DTRAD uses a variant of Path-Size-Logit model (PSL). PSL overcomes the drawback of the traditional multinomial logit model by incorporating an additional deterministic path size correction term to address path overlapping in the random utility expression." DTRAD executes the TA algorithm on an abstract network representation called "the path network" which is built from the actual physical link-node analysis network. This execution continues until a stable situation is reached: the volumes and travel times on the edges of the path network do not change significantly from one iteration to the next. The criteria for this convergence are defined by the user.* Travel "cost" plays a crucial role in route choice. In DTRAD, path cost is a linear summation of the generalized cost of each link that comprises the path. The generalized cost for a link, a, is expressed as ca = tca + 8lla + ysa, whereca is the generalized cost for link a, andet ,fi, andyare cost coefficients for link travel time, distance, and supplemental cost, respectively.

Distance and supplemental costs are defined as invariant properties of the network model, while travel time is a dynamic property dictated by prevailing traffic conditions.

The DYNEV simulation model Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant B-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 computes travel times on all edges in the network and DTRAD uses that information to constantly update the costs of paths. The route choice decision model in the next simulation iteration uses these updated values to adjust the route choice behavior.

This way, traffic demands are dynamically re-assigned based on time dependent conditions.

The interaction between the DTRAD traffic assignment and DYNEV II simulation models is depicted in Figure B-1. Each round of interaction is called a Traffic Assignment Session (TA session).

A TA session is composed of multiple iterations, marked as loop B in the figure.The supplemental cost is based on the "survival distribution" (a variation of the exponential distribution).The Inverse Survival Function is a "cost" term in DTRAD to represent the potential risk of travel toward the plant: Sa= -13 In (p), 0< p !5; 13 >0 d.dn = Distance of node, n, from the plant do =Distance from the plant where there is zero risk 0 = Scaling factor The value of do = 15 miles, the outer distance of the shadow region. Note that the supplemental cost, sa, of link, a, is (high, low), if its downstream node, n, is (near, far from) the power plant.Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant Evacuation Time Estimate B-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Network Equilibrium In 1952, John Wardrop wrote: Under equilibrium conditions traffic arranges itself in congested networks in such a way that no individual trip-maker can reduce his path costs by switching routes.The above statement describes the "User Equilibrium" definition, also called the "Selfish Driver Equilibrium".

It is a hypothesis that represents a [hopeful]

condition that evolves over time as drivers search out alternative routes to identify those routes that minimize their respective"costs". It has been found that this "equilibrium" objective to minimize costs is largely realized by most drivers who routinely take the same trip over the same network at the same time (i.e., commuters).

Effectively, such drivers "learn" which routes are best for them over time. Thus, the traffic environment "settles down" to a near-equilibrium state.Clearly, since an emergency evacuation is a sudden, unique event, it does not constitute a long-term learning experience which can achieve an equilibrium state. Consequently, DTRAD was not designed as an equilibrium solution, but to represent drivers in a new and unfamiliar situation, who respond in a flexible manner to real-time information (either broadcast or observed) in such a way as to minimize their respective costs of travel.Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant B-4 KILD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 (D Start of next DTRAD SessionlSet To = Clock time.Archive System State at T 0 I Define latest Link Turn Percentages I B Execute Simulation Model from time, To to T 1 (burn time)Provide DTRAD with link MOE at time, T 1 Execute DTRAD iteration; Get new Turn Percentages Retrieve System State at To;Apply new Link Turn Percents DTRAD iteration converges?

I No Yes Next iteration Simulate from To to T 2 (DTA session duration)Set Clock to T 2 Figure B-i. Flow Diagram of Simulation-DTRAD Interface Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant Evacuation Time Estimate B-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 APPENDIX C DYNEV Traffic Simulation Model C. DYNEV TRAFFIC SIMULATION MODEL The DYNEV traffic simulation model is a macroscopic model that describes the operations of traffic flow in terms of aggregate variables:

vehicles, flow rate, mean speed, volume, density, queue length, on each link, for each turn movement, during each Time Interval (simulation time step). The model generates trips from "sources" and from Entry Links and introduces them onto the analysis network at rates specified by the analyst based on the mobilization time distributions.

The model simulates the movements of all vehicles on all network links over time until the network is empty. At intervals, the model outputs Measures of Effectiveness (MOE)such as those listed in Table C-1.Model Features Include:* Explicit consideration is taken of the variation in density over the time step; an iterative procedure is employed to calculate an average density over the simulation time step for the purpose of computing a mean speed for moving vehicles.* Multiple turn movements can be serviced on one link; a separate algorithm is used to estimate the number of (fractional) lanes assigned to the vehicles performing each turn movement, based, in part, on the turn percentages provided by the DTRAD model.* At any point in time, traffic flow on a link is subdivided into two classifications:

queued and moving vehicles.

The number of vehicles in each classification is computed.

Vehicle spillback, stratified by turn movement for each network link, is explicitly considered and quantified.

The propagation of stopping waves from link to link is computed within each time step of the simulation.

There is no "vertical stacking" of queues on a link." Any link can accommodate "source flow" from zones via side streets and parking facilities that are not explicitly represented.

This flow represents the evacuating trips that are generated at the source.* The relation between the number of vehicles occupying the link and its storage capacity is monitored every time step for every link and for every turn movement.

If the available storage capacity on a link is exceeded by the demand for service, then the simulator applies a "metering" rate to the entering traffic from both the upstream feeders and source node to ensure that the available storage capacity is not exceeded." A "path network" that represents the specified traffic movements from each network link is constructed by the model; this path network is utilized by the DTRAD model.* A two-way interface with DTRAD: (1) provides link travel times; (2) receives data that translates into link turn percentages.

• Provides MOE to animation software, EVAN.* Calculates ETE statistics.

Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant C-1 KILD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 All traffic simulation models are data-intensive.

Table C-2 outlines the necessary input data elements.To provide an efficient framework for defining these specifications, the physical highway environment is represented as a network. The unidirectional links of the network represent roadway sections:

rural, multi-lane, urban streets or freeways.

The nodes of the network generally represent intersections or points along a section where a geometric property changes (e.g. a lane drop, change in grade or free flow speed).Figure C-1 is an example of a small network representation.

The freeway is defined by the sequence of links, (20,21), (21,22), and (22,23). Links (8001, 19) and (3, 8011) are Entry and Exit links, respectively.

An arterial extends from node 3 to node 19 and is partially subsumed within a grid network. Note that links (21,22) and (17,19) are grade-separated.

Table C-1. Selected Measures of Effectiveness Output by DYNEV II Vehicles Discharged Vehicles Link, Network, Exit Link Speed Miles/Hours (mph) Link, Network Density Vehicles/Mile/Lane Link Level of Service LOS Link Content Vehicles Network Travel Time Vehicle-hours Network Evacuated Vehicles Vehicles Network, Exit Link Trip Travel Time Vehicle-minutes/trip Network Capacity Utilization Percent Exit Link Attraction Percent of total evacuating vehicles Exit Link Max Queue Vehicles Node, Approach Time of Max Queue Hours:minutes Node, Approach Route Statistics Length (mi); Mean Speed (mph); Travel Route Time (min)Mean Travel Time Minutes Evacuation Trips; Network c-2 KID Engineering, P.c.Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant Evacuation Time Estimate C-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. I Table C-2. Input Requirements for the DYNEV II Model HIGHWAY NETWORK* Links defined by upstream and downstream node numbers* Link lengths* Number of lanes (up to 9) and channelization

• Turn bays (1 to 3 lanes)* Destination (exit) nodes* Network topology defined in terms of downstream nodes for each receiving link* Node Coordinates (X,Y)* Nuclear Power Plant Coordinates (X,Y)GENERATED TRAFFIC VOLUMES* On all entry links and source nodes (origins), by Time Period TRAFFIC CONTROL SPECIFICATIONS

• Traffic signals: link-specific, turn movement specific* Signal control treated as fixed time or actuated* Location of traffic control points (these are represented as actuated signals)* Stop and Yield signs* Right-turn-on-red (RTOR)* Route diversion specifications

• Turn restrictions

• Lane control (e.g., lane closure, movement-specific)

DRIVER'S AND OPERATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS

• Driver's (vehicle-specific) response mechanisms:

free-flow speed, discharge headway* Bus route designation.

DYNAMIC TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT

• Candidate destination nodes for each origin (optional)

• Duration of DTA sessions* Duration of simulation "burn time"* Desired number of destination nodes per origin INCIDENTS* Identify and Schedule of closed lanes* Identify and Schedule of closed links Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant C-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Entry, Exit Nodes are numbered 8xxx Figure C-1. Representative Analysis Network Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant Evacuation Time Estimate C-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 C.1 Methodology C.1.1 The Fundamental Diagram It is necessary to define the fundamental diagram describing flow-density and speed-density relationships.

Rather than "settling for" a triangular representation, a more realistic representation that includes a "capacity drop", (I-R)Qmax, at the critical density when flow conditions enter the forced flow regime, is developed and calibrated for each link. This representation, shown in Figure C-2, asserts a constant free speed up to a density, kf, and then a linear reduction in speed in the range, kf < k kc = 45 vpm, the density at capacity.

In the flow-density plane, a quadratic relationship is prescribed in the range, k, < k _ ks = 95 vpm which roughly represents the "stop-and-go" condition of severe congestion.

The value of flow rate, QS, corresponding to ks, is approximated at 0.7 RQmax. A linear relationship between k, and kj completes the diagram shown in Figure C-2. Table C-3 is a glossary of terms.The fundamental diagram is applied to moving traffic on every link. The specified calibration values for each link are: (1) Free speed, vf ; (2) Capacity, Qmax; (3) Critical density, kc =45 vpm; (4) Capacity Drop Factor, R = 0.9 ; (5) Jam density, ki. Then, vc = Qmax , kf = kc -kc (vf-vr) Iv. Setting k= k-kc, thenQ = RQmax Qrax k 2 for 0- k < ks = 50. It can be Qmax 8333 shown that Q = (0.98 -0.0056 k) RQmax for k, -- k < ki, where k, = 50 and S = 175.C.1.2 The Simulation Model The simulation model solves a sequence of "unit problems".

Each unit problem computes the movement of traffic on a link, for each specified turn movement, over a specified time interval (TI) which serves as the simulation time step for all links. Figure C-3 is a representation of the unit problem in the time-distance plane. Table C-3 is a glossary of terms that are referenced in the following description of the unit problem procedure.

Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant C-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Volume, vph Capacity Drop Qmax R Qmax QS A Vf R vc, I I I I I I* I I I* I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I Density, vpm-. Density, vpm Figure C-2. Fundamental Diagrams Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant Evacuation Time Estimate C-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Distance C--t OQ OM OE L Mb Qe Me Q Down Up o Time F El E2 TII Figure C-3. A UNIT Problem Configuration with tj > 0 C-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant Evacuation Time Estimate C-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table C-3. Glossary The maximum number of vehicles, of a particular movement, that can discharge Cap from a link within a time interval.E The number of vehicles, of a particular movement, that enter the link over the time interval.

The portion, ETI, can reach the stop-bar within the TI.The green time: cycle time ratio that services the vehicles of a particular turn G/C movement on a link.h The mean queue discharge headway, seconds.k Density in vehicles per lane per mile.The average density of moving vehicles of a particular movement over a TI, on a link.L The length of the link in feet.The queue length in feet of a particular movement, at the [beginning, end] of a Lb' Le time interval.The number of lanes, expressed as a floating point number, allocated to service a particular movement on a link.1.v The mean effective length of a queued vehicle including the vehicle spacing, feet.M Metering factor (Multiplier):

1.The number of moving vehicles on the link, of a particular movement, that are Mb, Me moving at the [beginning, end] of the time interval.

These vehicles are assumed to be of equal spacing, over the length of link upstream of the queue.The total number of vehicles of a particular movement that are discharged from a link over a time interval.The components of the vehicles of a particular movement that are discharged OQ OM from a link within a time interval:

vehicles that were Queued at the beginning of OMO the TI; vehicles that were Moving within the link at the beginning of the TI;vehicles that Entered the link during the TI.The percentage, expressed as a fraction, of the total flow on the link that executes a particular turn movement, x.Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant C-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 The number of queued vehicles on the link, of a particular turn movement, at the Q Qe [beginning, end] of the time interval.The maximum flow rate that can be serviced by a link for a particular movement Qmax in the absence of a control device. It is specified by the analyst as an estimate of link capacity, based upon a field survey, with reference to the HCM.R The factor that is applied to the capacity of a link to represent the "capacity drop" when the flow condition moves into the forced flow regime. The lower capacity at that point is equal to RQmax.RCap The remaining capacity available to service vehicles of a particular movement after that queue has been completely serviced, within a time interval, expressed as vehicles.Sx Service rate for movement x, vehicles per hour (vph).tj Vehicles of a particular turn movement that enter a link over the first tj seconds of a time interval, can reach the stop-bar (in the absence of a queue down-stream) within the same time interval.TI The time interval, in seconds, which is used as the simulation time step.v The mean speed of travel, in feet per second (fps) or miles per hour (mph), of moving vehicles on the link.VQ The mean speed of the last vehicle in a queue that discharges from the link within the TI. This speed differs from the mean speed of moving vehicles, v.W The width of the intersection in feet. This is the difference between the link length which extends from stop-bar to stop-bar and the block length.Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant C-9 KLD Engineering.

P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. I The formulation and the associated logic presented below are designed to solve the unit problem for each sweep over the network (discussed below), for each turn movement serviced on each link that comprises the evacuation network, and for each TI over the duration of the evacuation.

Given = Qb, Mb, L, TI, Eo, LN, G/C , h, Lv, Ro, Lc, E, M Compute = 0, Qe, Me Define O=OQ+OM+OE

E=E 1+E 2 1. For the first sweep, s = 1, of this TI, get initial estimates of mean density, ko, the R -factor, Ro and entering traffic, Eo, using the values computed for the final sweep of the prior TI.For each subsequent sweep, s > 1, calculate E = Yj Pi Oi + S where Pi, Oi are the relevant turn percentages from feeder link, i, and its total outflow (possibly metered) over this TI; S is the total source flow (possibly metered) during the current TI.Set iteration counter, n = 0, k = ko and E = Eo .2. Calculate v (k) such that k _ 130 using the analytical representations of the fundamental diagram.Calculate Cap = Qrnax(TI) (G/c) LN, in vehicles, this value may be reduced 3600 due to metering SetR= 1.0if G/C< 1 orifk!< k,; Set R=0.9onlyif G/C= 1 and k>kc Calculate queue length, Lb = Qb LN L __3. Calculate t = TI-- L If tl <0, sett 1 = E 1 =OE = 0 ; Else, El= E v T1 4. Then E 2=E-E 1 ; t 2=TI-tl 5. If Qb >Cap, then OQ = Cap,OM = OE = 0 If tl > 0,then Q'e = Qb + Mb + E 1 -Cap Else Q'e = Qb -Cap End if Calculate Qe and Me using Algorithm A (below)6. Else (Qb < Cap)OQ = Qb, RCap = Cap -OQ 7. If Mb -RCap,then Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant C-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

8. If t 1 > 0, OM = Mb,OE = min (RCap -Mb,t ) > 0 Q' = E 1 -OE If Q'e > 0,then Calculate Qe, Me with Algorithm A Else Qe= 0, Me = E 2 End if Else (t, = 0)M= (v(TI)-Lb)

Mb and OE = 0 ( L-Lb )'Me =Mb -O M +E; Qe= 0 End if 9. Else (Mb > RCap)O= 0 If t 1 > 0, then OM = RCap, Q' = Mb -OM + El Calculate Qe and Me using Algorithm A 10. Else (t 1 = 0)S V(T)-Lb Mb][\ L-Lb )If Md > RCap, then M= RCap Q=e Md -OM Apply Algorithm A to calculate Qe and Me Else OM = Md Me = Mb -0 M + E and Qe = 0 End if End if End if End if 11. Calculate a new estimate of average density, kn = ! [kb + 2 km + ke], 4 where kb = density at the beginning of the TI ke = density at the end of the TI km = density at the mid-point of the TI All values of density apply only to the moving vehicles.If Ikn-kn-1 I >Eandn<N where N = max number of iterations, and E is a convergence criterion, then Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant C-1l KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

12. set n = n + 1 , and return to step 2 to perform iteration, n, using k = kn.End if Computation of unit problem is now complete.

Check for excessive inflow causing spillback.(L-W) LN te 13. If Qe + Me > (L then The number of excess vehicles that cause spillback is: SB = Qe + Me (L-W).LN where W is the width of the upstream intersection.

To prevent spillback, meter the outflow from the feeder approaches and from the source flow, S, during this TI by the amount, SB. That is, set SB M = 1 -> 0 , where M is the metering factor (over all movements).(E + S) -This metering factor is assigned appropriately to all feeder links and to the source flow, to be applied during the next network sweep, discussed later.Algorithm A This analysis addresses the flow environment over a TI during which moving vehicles can join a standing or discharging queue. For the case Qb shown, Qb -< Cap, with t, > 0 and a queue of Qe length, Qe, formed by that portion of Mb and E that reaches the stop-bar within the TI, but could v V not discharge due to inadequate capacity.

That is, Mb Qb + Mb + E 1 > Cap. This queue length, v 3 Q'e = Qb + Mb + El -Cap can be extended to Qe by traffic entering the approach during the current ti t3 TI, traveling at speed, v, and reaching the rear of the queue within the TI. A portion of the entering T I vehicles, E 3 = E L, will likely join the queue. This analysis calculates t 3 ,Qe and Me for the input values of L, TI, v, E, t, L", LN, Qe When t, > 0 and Qb < Cap: Define: L'e = Qe .From the sketch, L 3 = v(TI -t 1 -t 3) = L -(Q'e + E 3) *Substituting E 3 =L E yields: -Vt 3 + t3 E = L -v(TI -t 1) -Le. Recognizing that TI TI LN the first two terms on the right hand side cancel, solve for t 3 to obtain: Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant C-12 KID Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 t3-[ E LN suchthat 0_t 3 <TI-t 1 ETI LN]If the denominator, v E & 0, set t 3 = TI -t--t 3 __t___-_t3 Then, Qe = Q'e + E -Me = E 1 ,+TI T The complete Algorithm A considers all flow scenarios; space limitation precludes its inclusion, here.C.1.3 Lane Assignment The "unit problem" is solved for each turn movement on each link. Therefore it is necessary to calculate a value, LNx, of allocated lanes for each movement, x. If in fact all lanes are specified by, say, arrows painted on the pavement, either as full lanes or as lanes within a turn bay, then the problem is fully defined. If however there remain un-channelized lanes on a link, then an analysis is undertaken to subdivide the number of these physical lanes into turn movement specific virtual lanes, LNx.C.2 Implementation C.2.1 Computational Procedure The computational procedure for this model is shown in the form of a flow diagram as Figure C-4. As discussed earlier, the simulation model processes traffic flow for each link independently over TI that the analyst specifies; it is usually 60 seconds or longer. The first step is to execute an algorithm to define the sequence in which the network links are processed so that as many links as possible are processed after their feeder links are processed, within the same network sweep. Since a general network will have many closed loops, it is not possible to guarantee that every link processed will have all of its feeder links processed earlier.The processing then continues as a succession of time steps of duration, TI, until the simulation is completed.

Within each time step, the processing performs a series of "sweeps" over all network links; this is necessary to ensure that the traffic flow is synchronous over the entire network. Specifically, the sweep ensures continuity of flow among all the network links; in the context of this model, this means that the values of E, M, and S are all defined for each link such that they represent the synchronous movement of traffic from each link to all of its outbound links. These sweeps also serve to compute the metering rates that control spillback.

Within each sweep, processing solves the "unit problem" for each turn movement on each link.With the turn movement percentages for each link provided by the DTRAD model, an algorithm Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant C-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 allocates the number of lanes to each movement serviced on each link. The timing at a signal, if any, applied at the downstream end of the link, is expressed as a G/C ratio, the signal timing needed to define this ratio is an input requirement for the model. The model also has the capability of representing, with macroscopic fidelity, the actions of actuated signals responding to the time-varying competing demands on the approaches to the intersection.

The solution of the unit problem yields the values of the number of vehicles, 0, that discharge from the link over the time interval and the number of vehicles that remain on the link at the end of the time interval as stratified by queued and moving vehicles:

Qe and Me. The procedure considers each movement separately (multi-piping).

After all network links are processed for a given network sweep, the updated consistent values of entering flows, E;metering rates, M; and source flows, S are defined so as to satisfy the "no spillback" condition.

The procedure then performs the unit problem solutions for all network links during the following sweep.Experience has shown that the system converges (i.e. the values of E, M and S "settle down" for all network links) in just two sweeps if the network is entirely under-saturated or in four sweeps in the presence of extensive congestion with link spillback. (The initial sweep over each link uses the final values of E and M, of the prior TI). At the completion of the final sweep for a TI, the procedure computes and stores all measures of effectiveness for each link and turn movement for output purposes.

It then prepares for the following time interval by defining the values of Qb and Mb for the start of the next TI as being those values of Qe and Me at the end of the prior TI. In this manner, the simulation model processes the traffic flow over time until the end of the run. Note that there is no space-discretization other than the specification of network links.Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant C-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Figure C-4. Flow of Simulation Processing (See Glossary:

Table C-3)Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant Evacuation Time Estimate C-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 C.2.2 Interfacing with Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTRAD)The DYNEV II system reflects NRC guidance that evacuees will seek to travel in a general direction away from the location of the hazardous event. Thus, an algorithm was developed to identify an appropriate set of destination nodes for each origin based on its location and on the expected direction of travel. This algorithm also supports the DTRAD model in dynamically varying the Trip Table (O-D matrix) over time from one DTRAD session to the next.Figure B-1 depicts the interaction of the simulation model with the DTRAD model in the DYNEV II system. As indicated, DYNEV II performs a succession of DTRAD "sessions";

each such session computes the turn link percentages for each link that remain constant for the session duration,[TO, T2], specified by the analyst. The end product is the assignment of traffic volumes from each origin to paths connecting it with its destinations in such a way as to minimize the network-wide cost function.

The output of the DTRAD model is a set of updated link turn percentages which represent this assignment of traffic.As indicated in Figure B-i, the simulation model supports the DTRAD session by providing it with operational link MOE that are needed by the path choice model and included in the DTRAD cost function.

These MOE represent the operational state of the network at a time, T, 1 < T 2 , which lies within the session duration, [To, T2]. This "burn time", T, -To, is selected by the analyst. For each DTRAD iteration, the simulation model computes the change in network operations over this burn time using the latest set of link turn percentages computed by the DTRAD model. Upon convergence of the DTRAD iterative procedure, the simulation model accepts the latest turn percentages provided by the DTA model, returns to the origin time, To, and executes until it arrives at the end of the DTRAD session duration at time, T 2 .At this time the next DTA session is launched and the whole process repeats until the end of the DYNEV II run.Additional details are presented in Appendix B.Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant C-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1