ML123630620

Kld TR-525, Rev. 1, San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station Development of Evacuation Time Estimates

ML123630620
Person / Time
Site:	San Onofre
Issue date:	11/30/2012
From:	KLD Engineering, PC
To:	Edison International Co, Southern California Edison Co, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
References
KLD TR-525, Rev 1
Download: ML123630620 (497)

Text

November2012FinalReport,Rev.1KLDTR-525 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationDevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimatesWorkperformedforSouthernCaliforniaEdison,by:KLDEngineering,P.C.43CorporateDriveHauppauge,NY11788mailto:kweinisch@kldcompanies.com SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableofContents1INTRODUCTION..................................................................................................................................1 11.1OverviewoftheETEProcess......................................................................................................1 21.2TheSONGSPlantLocation.........................................................................................................1 41.3PreliminaryActivities.................................................................................................................1 61.4ComparisonwithPriorETEStudy............................................................................................1 102STUDYESTIMATESANDASSUMPTIONS.............................................................................................2 12.1DataEstimates...........................................................................................................................2 12.2StudyMethodologicalAssumptions..........................................................................................2 22.3StudyAssumptions.....................................................................................................................2 53DEMANDESTIMATION.......................................................................................................................3 13.1PermanentResidents.................................................................................................................3 23.2ShadowPopulation....................................................................................................................3 73.3TransientPopulation................................................................................................................3 103.4SeasonalTransientPopulation.................................................................................................3 113.5Employees...............................................................................................................................

.3 143.6Medi calFacilities......................................................................................................................3 183.7TotalDemandinAdditiontoPermanentPopulation..............................................................3 183.8SpecialEvent............................................................................................................................3 183.9SummaryofDemand...............................................................................................................3 214ESTIMATIONOFHIGHWAYCAPACITY................................................................................................4 14.1CapacityEstimationsonApproachestoIntersections..............................................................4 24.2CapacityEstimationalongSectionsofHi ghway........................................................................4 44.3ApplicationtotheSONGSStudyArea........................................................................................4 64.3.1Two LaneRoads.................................................................................................................4 64.3.2Multi LaneHighway...........................................................................................................4 64.3.3Freeways............................................................................................................................4 74.3.4Intersections......................................................................................................................4 84.4SimulationandCapacityEstimation..........................................................................................4 85ESTIMATIONOFTRIPGENERATIONTIME..........................................................................................5 15.1Background...............................................................................................................................

.5 15.2FundamentalConsiderations.....................................................................................................5 35.3EstimatedTimeDistributionsofActivitiesPrecedingEvent5...................................................5 65.4CalculationofTripGenerationTimeDistribution....................................................................5 115.4.1StatisticalOutliers............................................................................................................5 125.4.2StagedEvacuationTripGeneration.................................................................................5 155.4.3TripGenerationforWaterwaysandRecreationalAreas.................................................5 166DEMANDESTIMATIONFOREVACUATIONSCENARIOS.....................................................................6 17GENERALPOPULATIONEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATES(ETE)..........................................................7 1 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationiiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.17.1VoluntaryEvacuationandShadowEvacuation.........................................................................7 17.2StagedEvacuation......................................................................................................................7 17.3PatternsofTrafficCongestionduringEvacuation.....................................................................7 27.4EvacuationRates........................................................................................................................7 47.5EvacuationTimeEstimate(ETE)Results....................................................................................7 57.6StagedEvacuationResults.........................................................................................................7 77.7GuidanceonUsingETETables...................................................................................................7 88TRANSITDEPENDENTANDSPECIALFACILITYEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATES.................................8 18.1TransitDependentPeopleDemandEstimate............................................................................8 28.2SchoolPopulation-TransitDemand.........................................................................................8 48.3MedicalFacilityDemand............................................................................................................8 48.4EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTransitDependentPeople.......................................................8 58.5Register edPeoplewithDisabilitiesandOtherswithAccessandFunctionalNeeds...............8 119TRAFFICMANAGEMENTSTRATEGY...................................................................................................9 110EVACUATIONROUTES..................................................................................................................10 111SURVEILLANCEOFEVACUATIONOPERATIONS...........................................................................11 112CONFIRMATIONTIME..................................................................................................................12 1 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationiiiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ListofAppendicesA.GLOSSARYOFTRAFFICENGINEERINGTERMS..................................................................................A 1B.DYNAMICTRAFFICASSIGNMENTANDDISTRIBUTIONMODEL.........................................................B 1C.DYNEVTRAFFICSIMULATIONMODEL...............................................................................................C 1C.1Methodology..............................................................................................................................C 5C.1.1TheFundamentalDiagram.................................................................................................C 5C.1.2TheSimulationModel........................................................................................................C 5C.1.3LaneAssignment..............................................................................................................C 13C.2Implementation.......................................................................................................................C 13C.2.1ComputationalProcedure................................................................................................C 13C.2.2InterfacingwithDynamicTrafficAssignment(DTRAD)...................................................C 16D.DETAILEDDESCRIPTIONOFSTUDYPROCEDURE..............................................................................D 1E.SPECIALFACILITYDATA......................................................................................................................E 1F.TELEPHONESURVEY...........................................................................................................................F 1F.1Introduction...............................................................................................................................F 1F.2SurveyInstrumentandSamplingPlan.......................................................................................F 2F.3SurveyResults............................................................................................................................F 3F.3.1HouseholdDemographicResults...........................................................................................F 3F.3.2EvacuationResponse.............................................................................................................F 8F.3.3TimeDistributionResults.....................................................................................................F 10F.4Conclusions..............................................................................................................................F 12G.TRAFFICMANAGEMENTPLAN..........................................................................................................G 1G.1TrafficControlPoints................................................................................................................G 1H.EVACUAT IONREGIONS.....................................................................................................................H 1J.REPRESENTATIVEINPUTSTOANDOUTPUTSFROMTHEDYNEVIISYSTEM.....................................J 1K.EVACUATIONROADWAYNETWORK..................................................................................................K 1L.PAZBOUNDARIES...............................................................................................................................L 1M.EVACUATIONSENSITIVITYSTUDIES.............................................................................................M 1M.1EffectofChangesinTripGenerationTimes............................................................................M 1M.2EffectofCha ngesintheNumberofPeopleintheShadowRegionWhoRelocate.................M 2M.3EffectofChangesinEPZResidentPopulation.........................................................................M 3N.ETECRITERIACHECKLIST...................................................................................................................N 1Note:AppendixIintentionallyskipped SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationivKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ListofFiguresFigure1 1.SONGSLocation......................................................................................................................1 5Figure1 2.SONGSLinkNodeAnalysisNetwork.......................................................................................1 8Figure2 1.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology.......................................................................................2 4Figure3 1.SONGSEPZ..............................................................................................................................3 3Figure3 2.PermanentResidentPopulationbySector.............................................................................3 5Figure3 3.PermanentResidentVehiclesbySector.................................................................................3 6Figure3 4.ShadowPopulationbySector.................................................................................................3 8Figure3 5.ShadowVehiclesbySector.....................................................................................................3 9Figure3 6.TransientPopulationbySector.............................................................................................3 12Figure3 7.TransientVehiclesbySector.................................................................................................3 13Figure3 8.EmployeePopulationbySe ctor............................................................................................3 16Figure3 9.EmployeeVehiclesbySector................................................................................................3 17Figure4 1.FundamentalDiagrams..........................................................................................................4 10Figure5 1.EventsandActivitiesPrecedingtheEvacuationTrip..............................................................5 5Figure5 2.EvacuationMobilizationActivities........................................................................................5 10Figure5 3.ComparisonofDataDistributionandNormalDistribution.......................................................5 13Figure5 4.ComparisonofTripGenerationDistributions.......................................................................5 19Figure5 5.ComparisonofStagedandUn stagedTripGenerationDistributions..................................5 22Figure6 1.SONGSEPZPAZs......................................................................................................................6 4Figure6 2.NonRetrofittedBridgeStructuresintheSONGSEPZ............................................................6 9Figure7 1.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology.....................................................................................7 18Figure7 2.SONGSShadowRegion.........................................................................................................7 19Figure7 3.CongestionPatternsat30MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate....................................7 20Figure7 4.CongestionPatternsat1HouraftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate............................................7 21Figure7 5.CongestionPatternsat2HoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate..........................................7 22Figure7 6.CongestionPatternsat3HoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate..........................................7 23Figure7 7.CongestionPatternsat4HoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate..........................................7 24Figure7 8.CongestionPa tternsat6HoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate..........................................7 25Figure7 9.CongestionPatternsat6Hours,20MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate.......................7 26Figure7 10.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario1forRegionR03....................................................7 27Figure7 11.EvacuationTi meEstimatesScenario2forRegionR03....................................................7 27Figure7 12.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario3forRegionR03....................................................7 28Figure7 13.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario4forRegionR03....................................................7 28Figure7 14.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario5forRegionR0 3....................................................7 29Figure7 15.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario6forRegionR03....................................................7 29Figure7 16.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario7forRegionR03....................................................7 30Figure7 17.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario8forRegionR03....................................................7 30Figure7 18.EvacuationTi meEstimatesScenario9forRegionR03....................................................7 31Figure7 19.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario10forRegionR03..................................................7 31Figure7 20.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario11forRegionR03..................................................7 32Figure7 21.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario12forRegionR03..................................................7 32Figure7 22.EvacuationTi meEstimatesScenario13forRegionR03..................................................7 33Figure8 1.ChronologyofTransitEvacuationOperations......................................................................8 12Figure8 2.Transit DependentBusRoutesinPAZ4...............................................................................8 13 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationvKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure8 3.Transit DependentBusRoutesinPAZ5...............................................................................8 14Figure8 4.Transit DependentBusRoutesinPAZs1and3....................................................................8 15Figure10 1.GeneralPopulationandSchoolReceptionCenters............................................................10 2Figure10 2.EvacuationRoutes..............................................................................................................10 3FigureB 1.FlowDiagramofSimulation DTRADInterface........................................................................B 5FigureC 1.RepresentativeAnalysisNetwork...........................................................................................C 4FigureC 2.FundamentalDiagrams...........................................................................................................C 6FigureC 3.AUNITProblemConfigurationwitht 1>0..............................................................................C 7FigureC 4.FlowofSimulationProcessing(SeeGlossary:TableC 3)....................................................C 15FigureD 1.FlowDiagramofActivities.....................................................................................................D 5FigureE 1.SchoolswithintheEPZ..........................................................................................................E 11FigureE 2.PreschoolsandDaycareswithintheEPZ..............................................................................E 12FigureE 3.Medi calFacilitieswithintheEPZ..........................................................................................E 13FigureE 4.RecreationalAreaswithintheEPZ........................................................................................E 14FigureE 5.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZ...........................................................................................E 15FigureE 6.LodgingFacilitiesintheSanClementeArea.........................................................................E 16FigureF 1.HouseholdSizeintheEPZ.......................................................................................................F 3FigureF 2.HouseholdVehicleAvailability................................................................................................F 4FigureF 3.VehicleAvailability1to5PersonHouseholds......................................................................F 5FigureF 4.VehicleAvailability6to9+PersonHouseholds....................................................................F 5FigureF 5.HouseholdRidesharingPreference.........................................................................................F 6FigureF 6.CommutersinHouseholdsintheEPZ.....................................................................................F 7FigureF 7.ModesofTravelintheEPZ.....................................................................................................F 8FigureF 8.NumberofVehiclesUsedforEvacuation...............................................................................F 9FigureF 9.HouseholdsEvacuatingwithPets...........................................................................................F 9FigureF 10.TimeRequiredtoPreparetoLeaveWork/School..............................................................F 11FigureF 11.WorktoHomeTravelTime.................................................................................................F 11FigureF 12.TimetoPrepareHomeforEvacuation................................................................................F 12FigureG 1.TrafficControlPointsfortheSONGSSite.............................................................................G 2FigureG 2.RecommendedTCP5AModification.....................................................................................G 3FigureG 3.RecommendedTCP5BModification......................................................................................G 4FigureG 4.RecommendedTCP6Modification........................................................................................G 5FigureG 5.RecommendedTCP7Modification........................................................................................G 6FigureG 6.RecommendedTCP10Modification......................................................................................G 7FigureG 7.RecommendedTCPattheIntersectionofBasiloneRdandSanMateoDr..........................G 8FigureH 1.RegionR01.............................................................................................................................H 4FigureH 2.RegionR02.............................................................................................................................H 5FigureH 3.RegionR03.............................................................................................................................H 6FigureH 4.RegionR04.............................................................................................................................H 7FigureH 5.RegionR05.............................................................................................................................H 8FigureH 6.RegionR06.............................................................................................................................H 9FigureH 7.RegionR07...........................................................................................................................H 10FigureH 8.RegionR08...........................................................................................................................H 11FigureH 9.RegionR09...........................................................................................................................H 12FigureH 10.RegionR10.........................................................................................................................H 13FigureH 11RegionR11..........................................................................................................................H 14FigureH 12RegionR12..........................................................................................................................H 15 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationviKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 13RegionR13..........................................................................................................................H 16FigureH 14RegionR14..........................................................................................................................H 17FigureH 15RegionR15..........................................................................................................................H 18FigureH 16RegionR16..........................................................................................................................H 19FigureH 17RegionR17..........................................................................................................................H 20FigureH 18RegionR18..........................................................................................................................H 21FigureH 19RegionR19..........................................................................................................................H 22FigureH 20RegionR20..........................................................................................................................H 23FigureH 21RegionR21..........................................................................................................................H 24FigureJ 1.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario1)..............J 8FigureJ 2.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario2)...............................J 8FigureJ 3.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario3)..............J 9FigureJ 4.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario4)..............................J 9FigureJ 5.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather(Scenario5).....................................................................................................................J 10FigureJ 6.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario6)..............J 10FigureJ 7.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario7)...............................J 11FigureJ 8.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario8)..............J 11FigureJ 9.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario9)...............................J 12FigureJ 10.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather(Scenario10)...................................................................................................................J 12FigureJ 11.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather,SpecialEvent(Scenario11)............................................................................................................................................J 13FigureJ 12.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather,RoadwayImpact(Scenario12)............................................................................................................................................J 13FigureJ 13.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather,Earthquake(Scenario13).........................................................................................................................J 14FigureK 1.OverviewofLinkNodeAnalysis..............................................................................................K 2FigureK 2.Grid1......................................................................................................................................K 3FigureK 3.Grid2......................................................................................................................................K 4FigureK 4.Grid3......................................................................................................................................K 5FigureK 5.Grid4......................................................................................................................................K 6FigureK 6.Grid5......................................................................................................................................K 7FigureK 7.Grid6......................................................................................................................................K 8FigureK 8.Grid7......................................................................................................................................K 9FigureK 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.K 38 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationviiiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ListofTablesTable1 1.StakeholderInteraction...........................................................................................................1 2Table1 2.HighwayCharacteristics...........................................................................................................1 6Table1 3.ETEStudyComparisons..........................................................................................................1 10Table2 1.EvacuationScenarioDefinitions...............................................................................................2 3Table2 2.ModelAdjustmentforAdverseWeather.................................................................................2 7Table3 1.EPZPermanentResidentPopulation.......................................................................................3 4Table3 2.PermanentResidentPopulationandVehiclesbyPAZ.............................................................3 4Table3 3.ShadowPopulationandVehiclesbySector.............................................................................3 7Table3 4.SummaryofTransientsandTransientVehicles.....................................................................3 11Table3 5.SummaryofNon EPZResidentEmployeesandEmployeeVehicles......................................3 15Table3 6.SONGSEPZExternalTraffic....................................................................................................3 20Table3 7.SummaryofPopulationDemand...........................................................................................3 22Table3 8.SummaryofVehicleDemand.................................................................................................3 23Table5 1.EventSequenceforEvacuationActivities................................................................................5 3Table5 2.TimeDistributionforNotifyingthePublic...............................................................................5 6Table5 3.TimeDistributionforEmployeestoPreparetoLeaveWork...................................................5 7Table5 4.TimeDistributionforCommuterstoTravelHome..................................................................5 8Table5 5.TimeDistributionforPopulationtoPreparetoEvacuate.......................................................5 9Table5 6.MappingDistri butionstoEvents............................................................................................5 11Table5 7.DescriptionoftheDistributions.............................................................................................5 11Table5 8.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforUn stagedEvacuation....................5 18Table5 9.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforStagedEvacuation.........................5 20Table5 10.TripGeneratio nHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforStagedEvacuationforRegionR21...........................................................................................................5 21Table6 1.DescriptionofEvacuationRegions...........................................................................................6 3Table6 2.EvacuationScenarioDefinitions...............................................................................................6 5Table6 3.PercentofPopulationGroupsEvacuatingforVariousScenarios............................................6 6Table6 4.VehicleEstimatesbyScenario..................................................................................................6 7Table6 5.ListofNonRetrofittedBridgeStructuresintheSONGSEPZ...................................................6 8Table7 1.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof90PercentoftheAffectedPopulation.........................7 11Table7 2.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof100PercentoftheAffectedPopulation.......................7 12Table7 3.TimetoClear90Percentofthe2 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegion............................7 13Table7 4.TimetoClear100Percentofthe2 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegion..........................7 14Table7 5.TimetoClear90Percentofthe5 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegion.............................7 15Table7 6.TimetoClear100Percentofthe5 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegion..........................7 16Table7 7.DescriptionofEvacuationRegions.........................................................................................7 17Table8 1.TransitDependentPopulationEstimates..............................................................................8 16Table8 2.SchoolPopulationDemandEstimates...................................................................................8 17Table8 3.SchoolReceptionCenters......................................................................................................8 20Table8 4.MedicalFacilityTransitDemand............................................................................................8 22Table8 5.SummaryofTransportationResources..................................................................................8 24Table8 6.BusRouteDescriptions..........................................................................................................8 25Table8 7.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeather..............................................................8 31Table8 8.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesRain...............................................................................8 35 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationixKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 9.SummaryofTransit DependentBusRoutes..........................................................................8 38Table8 10.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeather........................................8 39Table8 11.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesRain.........................................................8 41Table8 12.MedicalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeather.............................................8 43Table8 13.Medi calFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimatesRain..............................................................8 47Table8 14.RegisteredPeoplewithDisabilitiesandOtherswithAccessandFunctionalNeedsEvacuationTimeEstimates.........................................................................................8 51Table12 1.EstimatedNumberofTelephoneCallsRequiredforConfirmationofEvacuation..............12 3TableA 1.GlossaryofTrafficEngineeringTerms....................................................................................A 1TableC 1.SelectedMeasuresofEffectivenessOutputbyDYNEVII........................................................C 2TableC 2.InputRequirementsfortheDYNEVIIModel...........................................................................C 3TableC 3.Glossary....................................................................................................................................C 8TableE 1.SchoolswithintheEPZ.............................................................................................................E 2TableE 2.PreschoolsandDaycareswithintheEPZ.................................................................................E 4TableE 3.MedicalFacilitieswithintheEPZ..............................................................................................E 6TableE 4.Parks/RecreationalAttractionswithintheEPZ........................................................................E 8TableE 5.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZ..............................................................................................E 9TableF 1.SanOnofreTelephoneSurveySamplingPlan..........................................................................F 2TableH 1.PercentofSub AreaPopulationEvacuatingforEachRegion.................................................H 2TableJ 1.CharacteristicsoftheTenHighestVolumeSignalizedIntersections........................................J 2TableJ 2.SampleSimulationModelInput...............................................................................................J 3TableJ 3.SelectedModelOutputsfortheEvacuationoftheEntireEPZ(RegionR03)...........................J 4TableJ 4.AverageSpeed(mph)andTravelTime(min)forMajorEvacuationRoutes(RegionR03,Scenario1)............................................................................................................................J 5TableJ 5.SimulationModelOutputsatNetworkExitLinksforRegionR03,Scenario1.........................J 6TableK 1.Ev acuationRoadwayNetworkCharacteristics......................................................................K 39TableK 2.NodesintheLink NodeAnalysisNetworkwhichareControlled.........................................K 132TableM 1.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTripGenerationSensitivityStudy.......................................M 1TableM 2.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforShadowSensitivityStu dy....................................................M 2TableM 3.ETEVariationwithPopulationChange.................................................................................M 4TableN 1.ETEReviewCriteriaChecklist.................................................................................................N 1

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationES 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1EXECUTIVE

SUMMARY

ThisreportdescribestheanalysesundertakenandtheresultsobtainedbyastudytodevelopEvacuationTimeEstimates(ETE)fortheSanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation(SONGS)locatedinSanDiegoCounty,California.ETEarepartoftherequiredplanningbasisandprovideSouthernCaliforniaEdison(SCE)andStateandlocalgovernmentswithsite specificinformationneededforProtectiveAc tiondecision making.Intheperformanceofthiseffort,guidanceisprovidedbydocumentspublishedbyFederalGovernmentalagencies.Mostimportantoftheseare: CriteriaforDevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimateStudies,NUREG/CR 7002,November2011. CriteriaforPreparationandEvaluationofRadi ologicalEmergencyResponsePlansandPreparednessinSupportofNuclearPowerPlants,NUREG0654/FEMA REP 1,Rev.1,November1980. DevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimatesforNuclearPowerPlants,NUREG/CR 6863,January2005. 10CFR50,AppendixE-"EmergencyPlanningandPreparednessforProductionandUtilizationFacilities"OverviewofProjectActivitiesThisprojectbeganinJanuary,2012andextendedoveraperiodof11months.Themajoractivitiesperformedarebrieflydescribedinchronologicalsequence: Attended"kick off"meetingwithSCEpersonnelandemergencymanagementpersonnelrepresentingstate,county,andmunicipalgovernments. AccessedU.S.CensusBureaudatafilesfortheyear2010.StudiedGeographicalInformationSystems(GIS)mapsoftheareainthevicinityoftheplant,the nconductedadetailedfieldsurveyofthehighwaynetwork. SynthesizedthisinformationtocreateananalysisnetworkrepresentingthehighwaysystemtopologyandcapacitieswithintheEmergencyPlanningZone(EPZ),plusaShadowRegioncoveringtheregionbetweenth eEPZboundaryandapproximately15milesradiallyfromtheplant. DesignedandsponsoredatelephonesurveyofresidentswithintheEPZtogatherfocuseddataneededforthisETEstudythatwerenotcontainedwithinthecensusdatabase.Thesurveyinstrumentwasreviewedandmodifiedbythelicenseeandoffsiteresponseorganization(ORO)personnelpriortothesurvey.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationES 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 Datacollectionforms(providedtotheOROsatthekickoffmeeting)werereturnedwithdatapertainingtoemployment,transients,andspecialfacilitiesinOrangeCountyandMarineCorpsBaseCampPendleton(MCB).Telephonecallstospecificfacilitiessupplementedthedataprovided. Thetrafficdemandandtrip generationratesofevacuatingvehicleswereestimatedfromthega thereddata.Thetripgenerationratesreflectedtheestimatedmobilizationtime(i.e.,thetimerequiredbyevacueestopreparefortheevacuationtrip)computedusingtheresultsofthetelephonesurveyofEPZresidents. Followingfederalguidelines,theEPZissubdividedinto5PAZ.ThesePAZarethengroupedwithincircularareasor"keyhole"configurations(circlesplusradialsectors)thatdefineatotalof21EvacuationRegions. Thetime varyingexternalcircumstancesarerepresentedasEvacuationScenarios,eachdescribedintermsofthefollowingfactors:(1)Season(Summer,Winter);(2)DayofWeek(Midweek,Weekend);(3)TimeofDay(Midday,Evening);and(4)Weather(Good,Rain).OnespecialeventscenarioinvolvingFourthofJulyweekendwasconsidered.OneroadwayimpactscenariowasconsideredwhereinasinglelanewasclosedonInterstate5northboundforthedurationoftheevacuation.Oneearthquakescenariowasconsideredwhereinallbridgesnotretrofittedtowithstandanearthquakewereconsideredinaccessibleduringthecourseoftheevacuation. Stagedevacuationwasconsideredforthoseregionswhereinthe2mileradiusandsectorsdownwindto5mileswereevacuated.Twoadditionalstagedevacuationswereconsideredwherein(1)the2mileradiusandsectorsdownwindtotheEPZboundarywereevacu atedand(2)the5mileradiusandsectorsdownwindtotheEPZboundarywereevacuated. AsperNUREG/CR 7002,thePlanningBasisforthecalculationofETEis: ArapidlyescalatingaccidentattheplantthatquicklyassumesthestatusofGeneralEm ergencysuchthattheAdvisorytoEvacuateisvirtuallycoincidentwiththesirenalert,andnoearlyprotectiveactionshavebeenimplemented. Whileanunlikelyaccidentscenario,thisplanningbasiswillyieldETE,measuredastheelapsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateuntilthestatedpercentageofthepopulationexitstheimpact edRegion,thatrepresent"upperbound"estimates.ThisconservativePlanningBasisisapplicableforallinitiatingevents. Iftheemergencyoccurswhileschoolsareinsession,theETEstudyassumesthatthechildrenwillbeevacuatedbybusdirectlytoreceptioncentersorhostschoolslocatedoutsidetheEPZ.Parents,relatives,andneighborsareadvisedtonotpickuptheirchildrenatschoolpriortothearrivalofthebusesdispatchedforthatpurpose.TheETEforschoolchildrenarecalculatedseparately. Evacueeswhodonothaveaccesstoaprivatevehiclewilleitherride sharewithrelatives,friendsorneighbors,orbeevacuatedbybusesprovidedasspecifiedinthe SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationES 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1countyevacuationplans.Thoseinspecialfacilitieswilllikewisebeevacuatedwithpublictransit,asneeded:bus,van,orambulance,asrequired.SeparateETEarecalculatedforthetransit dependentevacuees,forregisteredpeoplewithdisabilitiesandotherswithaccessandfunctionalneeds,andforthoseevacuatedfromspecialfacilities.ComputationofETEAtotalof273ETEwerecomputedfortheevacuationofthegeneralpublic.EachETEquantifiestheaggregateevacuationtimeestimatedforthepopulationwithinoneofthe21EvacuationRegionstoevacuatefromthatRegion,underthecircumstancesdefinedforoneofthe13EvacuationScenarios(21x13=273).Sepa rateETEarecalculatedfortransit dependentevacuees,includingschoolchildrenforapplicablescenarios.ExceptforRegionR03,whichistheevacuationoftheentireEPZ,onlyaportionofthepeoplewithintheEPZwouldbeadvisedtoevacuate.Thatis,theAdvisorytoEvacuateappliesonlytothosepeopleoccupyingthespecifiedimpactedregion.Itisassumedthat100percentofthepeoplewithintheimpactedregionwillevacuateinresponsetothisAdvisory.ThepeopleoccupyingtheremainderoftheEPZoutsidetheimpactedregionmaybeadvisedtotakeshelter.ThecomputationofETEassumesthat20%ofthepopulationwithintheEPZbutoutsidetheimpactedregion,willel ectto"voluntarily"evacuate.Inaddition,20%ofthepopulationintheShadowRegionwillalsoelecttoevacuate.Thesevoluntaryevacueescouldimpedethosewhoareevacuatingfromwithintheimpactedregion.TheimpedancethatcouldbecausedbyvoluntaryevacueesisconsideredinthecomputationofETEfo rtheimpactedregion.Stagedevacuationisconsideredwhereinthosepeoplewithinthe2 mileregionevacuateimmediately,whilethosebeyond2miles,butwithintheEPZ,shelter in place.Once90%ofthe2 mileregionisevacuated,thosepeoplebeyond2milesbegintoevacuate.Asperfederalguidance,20%ofpeoplebeyond2mileswillev acuate(non compliance)eventhoughtheyareadvisedtoshelter in place.Thecomputationalprocedureisoutlinedasfollows: Alink noderepresentationofthehighwaynetworkiscoded.Eachlinkrepresentsaunidirectionallengthofhighway;ea chnodeusuallyrepresentsanintersectionormergepoint.Thecapacityofeachlinkisestimatedbasedonthefieldsurveyobservationsandonestablishedtrafficengineeringprocedures. Theevacuationtripsaregeneratedatlocationscalled"zonalcentroids"locatedwithintheEPZandShadowRegion.Thetripgenerationratesvaryovertimereflectingthemobilizationprocess,andfromonelocation(centroid)toanotherdependingonpopulationdensityandonwhetheracentroidiswithin,oroutside,theimpactedarea. Theevacuationmodelcomputestheroutingpatternsforevacuatingvehiclesthatarecompliantwithfederalguidelines(outboundrelativetothelocationoftheplant),then SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationES 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1simulatethetrafficflowmovementsoverspaceandtime.Thissimulationprocessestimatestheratethattrafficflowexitstheimpactedregion.TheETEstatisticsprovidetheelapsedtimesfor90percentand100percent,respectively,ofthepopulationwithintheimpactedregion,toevacuatefromwithintheimpactedregion.Thesestatisticsarepresentedintabularandgraphicalformats.The90 thpercentileETEhavebeenidentifiedasthevaluesthatshouldbeconsideredwhenmakingprotectiveactiondecisionsbecausethe100 thpercentileETEareprolongedbythoserelativelyfewpeoplewhotakelongertomobilize.Thisisreferredtoasthe"evacuationtail"inSection4.0ofNUREG/CR 7002.TrafficManagementThisstudymodeledtheexistingcomprehensivetrafficmanagementplansprovidedbyDanaPoint,SanClemente,SanJuanCapistrano,MCB,andCaliforniaHighwayPatrol.Suggestedmodificationstotheseplanswerediscussedwiththevariousagencies.SeeSection9andAppendixGformoreinformation.SelectedResultsAcompilationofselectedinformationispresentedonthefollowingpagesintheformofFiguresandTablesextractedfromthebodyofthereport;thesearedescribedbelow. Figure6 1displaysamapoftheSONGSEPZshowingthelayoutofthe5PAZthatcomprise,inaggregate,theEPZ. Table3 1presentstheestimatesofpermanentresidentpo pulationineachPAZbasedonthe2010CensusdataandinformationreceivedfromMCB. Table6 1defineseachofthe21EvacuationRegionsintermsoftheirrespectivegroupsofPAZ. Table6 2liststheEvacuationScenarios. Table7 1an dTable7 2arecompilationsofETE.Thesedataarethetimesneededtocleartheindicatedregionsof90and100percentofthepopulationoccupyingtheseregions,respectively.ThesecomputedETEincludeconsiderationofmobilizationtimeandofestimatedvoluntaryevacuationsfromotherregionswithintheEPZandfromtheShadowRegion. Table7 3andTable7 4presentETEforthe2 mileregionforun stagedandstagedevacuationsforthe90 thand100 thpercentiles,respectively. Table7 5andTable7 6presentETEforthe5 mileregionforun stagedandstagedevacuationsforthe90 thand100 thpercentiles,respectively. Table8 7presentsETEfortheschoolchildreningoodweather. Table8 10presentsETEforthetransit dependentpopulationingoodweather.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationES 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 FigureH 10presentsanexampleofanEvacuationRegion(RegionR10)tobeevacuatedunderthecircumstancesdefinedinTable6 1.MapsofallregionsareprovidedinAppendixH.Conclusions GeneralpopulationETEwerecomputedfor273uniquecases-acombinationof21uniqueEvacuationRegionsand13uniqueEvacuationScenarios.Table7 1andTable7 2documenttheseETEforthe90 thand100 thpercentiles.TheseETErangefrom1:30(hr:min)to6:15atthe90 thpercentile(slightlyhigherfortheSpecialEvent,andsignificantlyhigherfortheearthquakescenario). InspectionofTable7 1andTable7 2indicatesthattheETEforthe100 thpercentilearesignificantlylongerthanthoseforthe90 thpercentile.ThisistheresultofthecongestionwithintheEPZ.Whenthesystembecomescongested,trafficexitstheEPZatratessomewhatbelowcapacityuntilsomeevacuationrouteshavecleared.Asmoreroutesclear,theaggregaterateofegressslowssincemanyvehicleshavealreadylefttheEPZ.Towardstheendoftheprocess,rel ativelyfewevacuationroutesservicetheremainingdemand.SeeFigure7 10throughFigure7 22. InspectionofTable7 1throughTable7 4indicatesthatstagedevacuationwouldnotbebeneficialforevacuatingthepopulationwithinthe2 mileregionofSONGSduetothelackofimpedancetotrafficevacuatingfromPAZ1.SeeSection7.5foradditionaldiscussion. InspectionofTable7 5andTable7 6indicatesthatastagedevacuationforRegionR21providesnobenefittoevacueesfromwithinthe5 mileregionandunnecessarilydelaystheevacuationofthosebeyondthe5mileregi on(comparingregionR21withRegionR03inTable7 1andTable7 2).SeeSection7.6foradditionaldiscussion. ComparisonofScenarios3(summer,weekend,midday,goodweather)and11(summer,weekend,midday,specialevent)inTable7 1indicatesthatthespecialeventha sasignificantimpactonthe90 thpercentileETEwithincreasesofupto2hours.SeeSection7.5foradditionaldiscussion. ComparisonofScenarios1and12inTable7 1indicatesthattheroadwayclosure-onelanenorthboundonI 5fromSONGS(approximately2milessouthofBasiloneRd-Exit71)totheendoftheanalysisnetworkattheinterchangewithOsoParkway(Exit88)-hasasignificantimpacton90 thpercentileETEforkeyholeregionswhichinvolvethedirectevacuationofPAZ4and5,withupto1hourand20minuteincreasesinETEatthe90 thpercentile.SeeSection7.5foradditionaldiscussion. ComparisonofScenarios1and13inTable7 1indicatesthattheearthquakescenariohasasignificantimpactonthe90 thand100 thpercentileETEwithincreasesofupto9:15and13:00respectively.SeeSection7.5foradditionaldiscussion. SanClementeisthemostcongestedareaduringanevacuation.ThelastremnantsoftrafficcongestiontoclearintheEPZwereon rampstoI 5northboundinthecityofSan SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationES 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Clemente.AllcongestionwithintheEPZclearsby6hoursand20minutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate(ATE).SeeSection7.3andFigures7 3through7 9. SeparateETEwerecomputedforschools,medicalfacilities,transit dependentpersons,andregisteredpeoplewithdisabilitiesandotherswithaccessandfunctionalneeds.Theaveragesingle waveET EforthesefacilitiesarecomparabletoorlessthanthegeneralpopulationETEatthe90 thpercentileforanevacuationoftheentireEPZ(RegionR03).SeeSection8. Table8 5indicatesthattherearesufficienttransportationresourcestoevacuatethetransit dependentpopulationinasinglewave.SeeSections8.4and8.5. ThegeneralpopulationETEatthe90 thpercentileisinsensitivetoreductionsinthebasetripgenerationtimeof5hoursduetothetrafficcongestionwithintheEPZ.SeeTableM 1. ThegeneralpopulationETEisinsensitivetothevoluntaryevacuationofvehiclesintheShadowRegion.SeeTableM 2. Populationincreasesof8%orgreaterre lativetothe2010CensusdatawillresultinETEchangeswhichmeettheNRCcriteriaforupdatingETEbetweendecennialCensuses.SeeSectionM.3.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationES 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure6 1.SONGSEPZPAZs SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationES 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 1.EPZPermanentResidentPopulationPAZ2000Population 2010Population 12154,533200311,51311,997450,08968,879568,94767,948TOTAL130,764153,357EPZPopulationGrowth:17.28%

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationES 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 1.DescriptionofEvacuationRegionsRegionDescriptionPAZNRCSONGS12345R012 MileRegion2 MileRegionxR025 MileRegion5 MileRegionxxxxR03FullEPZFullEPZxxxxxEvacuate2 MileRegionandDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionTowardsPAZNRCSONGS12345R04NW,NNW,NP,Q,R,A,BxxR05NNExxxR06NE,ENE,E,ESEC,D,E,F,GxxR07SExxxR08SSE,S,SSW,SW,WSW,WH,J,K,L,M,NxxR09WNWxxxEvacuate5 MileRegionandDownwindtoEPZBoundaryRegionWindDirectionTowardsPAZNRCSONGS12345N/AWNW,NW,NNW,NRefertoR03N/ANNE,NE,ENE,E,ESE,SE,SSE,S,SSW,SW,WSW,WRefertoR02Evacuate2 MileRegionandDownwindtoEPZBoundaryRegionWindDirectionTowardsPAZNRCSONGS12345R10NW,NNW,NP,Q,R,A,BxxxN/ANNERefertoR05N/ANE,ENE,E,ESEC,D,E,F,GRefertoR06N/ASE,SSERefertoR07N/AS,SSW,SW,WSW,WH,J,K,L,M,NRefertoR08R11WNWxxxxStagedEvacuation2 MileRegionEvacuates,thenEvacuateDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionTowardsPAZNRCSONGS12345R12NW,NNW,NP,Q,R,A,BxxR13NNExxxR14NE,ENE,E,ESEC,D,E,F,GxxR15SExxxR16SSE,S,SSW,SW,WSW,WH,J,K,L,M,NxxR17WNWxxxR185 MileRegionxxxxSONGSSpecificEvacuationRegionsRegionDescriptionPAZ12345R19EvacuatePAZ5OnlyxR20Evacuate1,ShelterthenEvacuate2,3,4,5xxxxxR21Evacuate1,2,3,4,ShelterthenEvacuate5xxxxxPAZ(s)Shelter in Placeuntil90%ETEforUn stagedRegion,thenEvacuatePAZ(s)Shelter in PlacePAZ(s)Evacuate SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationES 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 2.EvacuationScenarioDefinitionsScenarioSeason 1DayofWeekTimeofDayWeatherSpecial1SummerMidweekMiddayGoodNone2SummerMidweekMiddayRainNone3SummerWeekendMiddayGoodNone4SummerWeekendMiddayRainNone5SummerMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone6WinterMidweekMiddayGoodNone7WinterMidweekMiddayRainNone8WinterWeekendMiddayGoodNone9WinterWeekendMiddayRainNone10WinterMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone11SummerWeekendMiddayGood4 thofJulyWeekend12SummerMidweekMiddayGoodRoadwayImpact-SingleLaneClosureonI 5Northbound13SummerMidweekMiddayGoodEarthquake1Wintermeansthatschoolisinsession(alsoappliestospringandautumn).Summermeansthatschoolisnotinsession.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationES 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 1.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof90PercentoftheAffectedPopulationSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)Scenario:RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayMiddayRegionGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEarthquakeEntire2 MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZR011:351:401:351:402:201:401:451:401:452:251:301:403:00R01R025:105:454:355:004:255:155:454:304:554:205:106:2011:35R02R034:505:254:204:454:054:505:254:104:404:056:105:5513:50R032 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR045:105:454:254:504:155:155:404:204:454:105:056:2511:55R04R055:105:454:355:004:255:155:454:304:554:205:106:2011:35R05R063:053:203:003:153:253:103:253:053:153:303:003:054:05R06R073:053:203:003:153:253:103:253:053:153:303:003:054:05R07R081:351:401:351:402:201:401:451:401:452:251:301:403:00R08R095:105:454:254:504:155:155:404:204:454:105:056:2511:55R092 MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR104:455:204:154:353:554:455:204:004:303:506:156:0014:00R10R114:455:204:154:353:554:455:204:004:303:506:156:0014:00R11StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR125:055:404:305:004:205:105:404:254:504:205:056:2511:25R12R135:105:454:405:054:355:155:454:355:004:355:106:2011:10R13R143:303:353:253:403:553:303:403:303:404:003:303:304:10R14R153:554:103:554:104:104:004:153:554:104:103:554:004:35R15R161:401:401:401:452:201:451:451:451:452:201:351:403:00R16R175:055:404:305:004:205:105:404:254:504:205:056:2511:25R17R185:105:454:405:054:355:155:454:355:004:355:106:2011:10R18SONGSSpecificEvacuationRegionsR192:102:102:002:052:202:102:102:052:102:201:502:203:05R19R204:505:304:254:554:204:505:254:204:454:156:206:0014:05R20R215:556:155:506:004:205:556:155:506:004:206:206:4013:50R21 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationES 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 2.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof100PercentoftheAffectedPopulationSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)Scenario:RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayMiddayRegionGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEarthquakeEntire2 MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZR015:005:005:005:005:005:055:055:005:005:005:005:005:05R01R026:507:356:106:356:006:557:256:056:356:006:558:3015:20R02R037:007:456:156:506:007:057:406:056:406:009:258:3519:55R032 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR046:507:306:106:355:506:557:256:056:255:406:558:3015:20R04R056:507:356:106:356:006:557:256:056:356:006:558:3015:20R05R065:005:255:005:055:005:055:255:005:005:005:005:055:15R06R075:005:255:005:055:005:055:255:005:005:005:005:055:15R07R085:005:005:005:005:005:055:055:005:005:005:005:005:05R08R096:507:306:106:355:506:557:256:056:255:406:558:3015:20R092 MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR107:007:506:156:505:557:057:406:056:355:459:258:3519:55R10R117:007:506:156:505:557:057:406:056:355:459:258:3519:55R11StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR126:557:306:206:455:356:557:306:056:305:307:008:2514:55R12R137:007:306:206:456:156:557:306:156:356:057:008:2514:55R13R145:055:405:105:205:105:055:255:155:205:105:155:205:15R14R155:055:405:105:205:105:055:255:155:205:105:155:205:15R15R165:005:055:005:005:005:005:005:005:005:005:005:005:00R16R176:557:306:206:455:356:557:306:056:305:307:008:2514:55R17R187:007:306:206:456:156:557:306:156:356:057:008:2514:55R18SONGSSpecificEvacuationRegionsR195:055:005:005:055:005:005:005:005:005:055:005:055:05R19R207:007:456:206:556:157:057:456:156:406:159:458:4519:55R20R217:057:457:107:306:007:157:407:157:256:009:258:4520:05R21 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationES 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 3.TimetoClear90Percentofthe2 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegionSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)Scenario:RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayMiddayRegionGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEarthquakeEntire2 MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZR011:351:401:351:402:201:401:451:401:452:251:301:403:00R01R022:052:151:301:352:052:102:201:351:402:051:302:252:55R02R032:052:151:301:352:052:102:201:351:402:051:302:252:55R032 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR042:052:151:301:352:052:102:201:351:402:051:302:252:55R04R052:052:151:301:352:052:102:201:351:402:051:302:252:55R05R061:351:401:351:352:201:401:451:351:402:251:301:453:00R06R071:351:401:351:352:201:401:451:351:402:251:301:453:00R07R081:351:401:351:402:201:401:451:401:452:251:301:403:00R08R092:052:151:301:352:052:102:201:351:402:051:302:252:55R09StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR122:052:151:501:502:202:102:201:551:552:201:502:202:55R12R132:052:151:501:502:202:102:201:551:552:201:502:202:55R13R141:401:401:401:452:151:451:451:401:452:201:351:402:55R14R151:401:401:401:452:151:451:451:401:452:201:351:402:55R15R161:401:401:401:452:201:451:451:451:452:201:351:403:00R16R172:052:151:501:502:202:102:201:551:552:201:502:202:55R17R182:052:151:501:502:202:102:201:551:552:201:502:202:55R18SONGSSpecificEvacuationRegionsR202:052:151:501:502:152:102:201:501:552:201:502:202:55R20 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationES 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 4.TimetoClear100Percentofthe2 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegionSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)Scenario:RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayMiddayRegionGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEarthquakeEntire2 MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZR015:005:005:005:005:005:055:055:005:005:005:005:005:05R01R025:005:005:005:005:005:055:055:005:005:005:005:005:00R02R035:005:055:005:005:005:055:055:005:005:005:005:005:00R032 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR045:005:005:005:005:005:055:055:005:005:005:005:005:00R04R055:005:005:005:005:005:055:055:005:005:005:005:005:00R05R065:005:005:005:005:005:055:055:005:005:005:005:005:00R06R075:005:005:005:005:005:055:055:005:005:005:005:005:00R07R085:005:005:005:005:005:055:055:005:005:005:005:005:05R08R095:005:005:005:005:005:055:055:005:005:005:005:005:00R09StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR125:005:005:005:005:005:055:055:005:005:005:005:005:00R12R135:005:005:005:005:005:055:055:005:005:005:005:005:00R13R145:005:055:005:005:005:005:005:005:005:005:005:005:00R14R155:005:055:005:005:005:005:005:005:005:005:005:005:00R15R165:005:055:005:005:005:005:005:005:005:005:005:005:00R16R175:005:005:005:005:005:055:055:005:005:005:005:005:00R17R185:005:005:005:005:005:055:055:005:005:005:005:005:00R18SONGSSpecificEvacuationRegionsR205:005:005:005:005:005:055:055:005:005:005:005:005:00R20 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationES 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 5.TimetoClear90Percentofthe5 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegionSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEarthquakeEntire5 MileRegion,andEPZR025:105:454:355:004:255:155:454:304:554:205:106:2011:35R035:205:554:355:054:305:205:554:305:004:255:306:3015:10SONGSSpecificEvacuationRegionsR215:155:504:355:054:305:205:504:355:004:255:156:3015:30 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationES 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 6.TimetoClear100Percentofthe5 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegionSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEarthquakeEntire5 MileRegion,andEPZR026:507:356:106:356:006:557:256:056:356:006:558:3015:20R037:007:406:106:456:007:057:356:006:306:007:158:4019:45SONGSSpecificEvacuationRegionsR216:557:406:106:406:007:007:356:006:306:007:058:4519:55 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationES 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 7.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimates-GoodWeatherSchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.C.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.C.(min)ETEtoR.C.(hr:min)OrangeCountyPrivateSchoolsOurLadyofFatimaSchool90159.912.3492:3517.4243:00OurSavior'sLutheranSchool901512.413.0582:4517.4243:10St.Michael'sChristianAcademy901510.39.4662:5517.4243:15BroderickMontessoriSchool90158.818.6292:1517.4242:40CapistranoHomeSchool90155.315.6212:1017.4242:30CapistranoValleyChristianSchools90155.315.6212:1017.4242:30CapoBeachCalvary90158.818.6292:1517.4242:40JserraCatholicHighSchool90153.426.981:5517.4242:20MissionParishSchool90153.426.981:5517.4242:20MonarchBayMontessoriAcademy90150.929.421:5020.1272:15RanchoCapistranoSchool90150.15.521:5019.8272:15SaddlebackValleyChristianSchool901512.426.9282:1517.4242:40SanJuanMontessori90155.315.6212:1017.4242:30SouthShoresChristianSchool90150.54.571:5521282:20StEdwardSchool90158.818.6292:1517.4242:40St.Margaret'sEpiscopalSchool90153.426.981:5517.4242:20StonebridgeDaySchool90153.418.6112:0017.4242:20StoneybrookeChristianSchools90150.126.911:5019.8272:15OrangeCountyPublicSchoolsBerniceAyerMiddleSchool90159.37.4763:0517.4243:25ClarenceLoboElementarySchool90159.912.3492:3517.4243:00ConcordiaElementarySchool901512.413.0582:4517.4243:10LasPalmasElementarySchool901512.413.0582:4517.4243:10MarbleheadElementarySchool90159.912.3492:3517.4243:00SanClementeHighSchool90159.912.3492:3517.4243:00 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationES 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.C.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.C.(min)ETEtoR.C.(hr:min)ShorecliffsMiddleSchool90159.37.4763:0517.4243:25TrumanBenedictElementarySchool90159.37.4763:0517.4243:25VistaDelMarElementarySchool90159.912.3492:3517.4243:00VistaDelMarMiddleSchool90159.912.3492:3517.4243:00AmbuehlElementarySchool90153.426.981:5517.4242:20DanaHillsHighSchool90158.818.6292:1517.4242:40DelObispoElementarySchool90158.818.6292:1517.4242:40KinoshitaElementarySchool90155.315.6212:1017.4242:30MarcoForsterMiddleSchool90158.818.6292:1517.4242:40PalisadesElementarySchool90159.37.4763:0517.4243:25RichardHenryDanaElementarySchool90158.818.6292:1517.4242:40RichardHenryDanaExceptionalNeedsSchool90158.818.6292:1517.4242:40SanJuanElementarySchool90153.426.981:5517.4242:20SanJuanHillsHighSchool90155.729.5122:0019.1262:25SerraHighSchool90153.426.981:5517.4242:20OrangeCountyPreschools/DaycaresBrightHorizonsatSanClemente90159.38.2682:5517.4243:20ClarenceLobo90159.912.3492:3517.4243:00ConcordiaElementarySchool901512.413.0582:4517.4243:10KindercareLearningCenter901511.75.01404:0517.4244:30LaCristianitaPreschool90158.59.0572:4517.4243:10LasPalmasStatePreschool901512.412.8592:4517.4243:10MarbleheadElementarySchool90159.912.0502:3517.4243:00OurSavior'sLutheranPreschool901512.412.6592:4517.4243:10PalisadesUnitedMethodistPreschool90158.58.4612:5017.4243:10SanClementePresbyterianPreschool901510.39.1682:5517.4243:20SanClementePreschool901510.39.1682:5517.4243:20 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationES 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.C.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.C.(min)ETEtoR.C.(hr:min)SerraPreschool901510.38.6723:0017.4243:25St.Michael'sInfant/ToddlerCenter901510.38.3753:0017.4243:25TalegaLifeChurchPreschool901511.74.31644:3017.4244:55BroderickMontessoriSchool,Inc90158.818.6292:1517.4242:40CapistranoBeachCitiesYMCA DelObispo90153.726.291:5517.4242:20CapoBeachCalvary90158.818.6292:1517.4242:40CapoValleyHeadStart90153.426.981:5517.4242:20ChildbridgePreschool90153.726.291:5517.4242:20DanaMontessoriSchool90156.97.2582:4517.4243:10DanaPointMontessori90156.97.2582:4517.4243:10EvelynLoboVillegasHeadStart90155.313.6242:1017.4242:35GloriaDeiLutheranPreschool90156.97.2582:4517.4243:10KinoshitaElementarySchool90155.313.6242:1017.4242:35LittleMindsMontessoriAcademy901569.6382:2517.4242:50MissionParishSchool90153.426.981:5517.4242:20MonarchBayMontessoriAcademy90150.929.421:5020.1272:15OhanaPreschool901569.6382:2517.4242:50PalisadesElementarySchool90159.37.1793:0517.4243:30RichardHenryDanaElementarySchool90158.818.6292:1517.4242:40SanJuanMontessori90155.313.6242:1017.4242:35SouthShoresChristianPreschool90150.929.421:5020.1272:15StEdward'sCatholicPreschool90156.97.2582:4517.4243:10St.Margaret'sEpiscopalSchool90153.426.981:5517.4242:20StoneybrookeChristianSchools901505.501:4519.8272:15MCBSchoolsSanOnofreSchool901520.911.21123:405.073:45SanOnofreYouthCenter901520.911.21123:405.073:45 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationES 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.C.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.C.(min)ETEtoR.C.(hr:min)MCBPreschools/DaycaresSanOnofreChildDevelopmentCenter901520.911.21123:405.073:45MaximumforEPZ:4:30Maximum:4:55AverageforEPZ:2:30Average:2:55

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationES 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table810.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimates-GoodWeatherRouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)401,210520.946.427302:455.0751057304:35403,411520.950.825302:505.0751057304:40411,2,3,410515.410.489303:455.7851089306:10415,6,7,811515.410.489303:555.7851087306:15419,10,11,1212515.410.390304:055.7851084306:25421,2,3,410512.712.760303:1517.42351061305:25425,6,7,811512.713.457303:2517.42351058305:35429,10,11,1212512.714.154303:3017.42351056305:35431,2,3,410513.48.594303:5017.42351056305:55435,6,7,811513.49.287303:5517.42351056306:00439,10,11,1212513.49.585304:0017.42351056306:054313,14,15,1613513.410.279304:0517.42351056306:10441,2,310515.04.6194305:3017.42351060307:40444,5,6,11515.04.8188305:3517.42351060307:45447,8,912515.05.0181305:4017.42351060307:50451,2,310513.44.8168305:0517.42351056307:10454,5,6,11513.45.2155305:0017.42351056307:05457,8,912513.45.3152305:1017.42351056307:15461,2,3,410511.33.7183305:2017.42351051307:20465,6,7,811511.33.8179305:2517.42351051307:25469,10,11,1212511.33.9172305:3017.42351051307:30 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationES 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1RouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)471,2,3,41057.517.925302:4517.42351046304:40475,6,71157.518.225302:5017.42351045304:45478,9,101257.518.524303:0017.42351044304:55481,2,3,410512.17.992303:5017.42351059306:00485,6,7,811512.18.190303:5517.42351058306:05489,10,1112512.18.684304:0017.42351056306:054812,1313512.18.882304:1017.42351055306:15491,2,3,41053.220.39302:2520.12751037304:15495,6,71153.226.37302:3520.12751037304:25501,2,3,41057.56.965303:2017.42351042305:10505,6,71157.57.164303:3017.42351041305:20508,9,101257.57.858303:3517.42351041305:25511,2,3,41055.220.315302:3517.42351036304:20515,6,71155.221.415302:4017.42351036304:25518,9,101255.222.514302:5017.42351036304:35521,2,3,41053.828.38302:2517.42351034304:10525,6,71153.839.16302:3517.42351033304:20531,2,3,41053.57.329302:4517.42351033304:30535,6,71153.57.727302:5517.42351033304:40538,9,101253.58.724303:0017.42351033304:45541,2,3,41056.47.750303:0517.42351042304:55545,6,71156.48.744303:1017.42351042305:00548,9,101256.410.038303:1517.42351042305:05MaximumETE:5:40MaximumETE:7:50AverageETE:3:45AverageETE:5:40 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationES 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH10.RegionR10 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation1 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.11 INTRODUCTIONThisreportdescribestheanalysesundertakenandtheresultsobtainedbyastudytodevelopEvacuationTimeEstimates(ETE)fortheSanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation(SONGS),locatedinSanDiegoCounty,California.ETEprovideStateandlocalgovernmentswithsite specificinformationneededforProtectiveActiondecision making.Intheperformanceofthiseffort,guidanceisprovidedbydocumentspublishedbyFederalGovernmentalagencies.Mostimportantoftheseare:* CriteriaforDevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimateStudies,NUREG/CR 7002,November2011.* CriteriaforPreparationandEvaluationofRadiologicalEmergencyResponsePlansandPreparednessinSupportofNuclearPowerPlants,NUREG0654/FEMAREP1,Rev.1,November1980.* AnalysisofTechniquesforEstimatingEvacuationTimesforEmergencyPlanningZones,NUREG/CR1745,November1980.* DevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimatesforNuclearPowerPlants,NUREG/CR 6863,January2005.Theworkeffortreportedhereinwassupportedandguidedbylocalstakeholderswhocontributedsuggestions,critiques,andthelocalknowledgebaserequired.Table1 1presentsasummaryofstakeholdersandinteractions.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation1 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table1 1.StakeholderInteractionStakeholderNatureofStakeholderInteractionSouthernCaliforniaEdisonemergencyplanningpersonnelAttendedprojectkickoffmeetingtodiscussprojectmethodologyanddefinedataneeds.Providedsiteandcountyemergencyplans.Reviewedandapprovedtelephonesurveyinstrumentpriortoconductingsurvey.Reviewedandapprovedkeyprojectassumptionspriortorunningsimulations.Provideddataneededforstudy.Attendedprojectfinalmeetingwheredraftresultsofthestudywerediscussedandcommentsonthedraftreportwereprovided.OrangeCountyEmergencyManagementBureauCountyofSanDiegoOfficeofEmergencyServicesCaliforniaEmergencyManagementAgencyObtainstateemergencyplansMCBObtainexistingtrafficmanagementplans,emergencyplans,anddefinedatarequirements.Municipalemergencyplanningpersonnel(SanClemente,DanaPoint,SanJuanCapistrano)Obtainexistingtrafficmanagementplans,emergencyplans,andmeetingstodefinedatarequirementsandsetupcontactswithlocalgovernmentagenciesOrangeCountySheriffsDepartment/CaliforniaHighwayPatrolObtainexistingtrafficmanagementplansCalTRANSObtainlistofnonretrofittedbridgestoquantifypossibleearthquakeimpactsCaliforniaStateParksMeetingstodefinedatarequirementsandsetupcontactswithlocalgovernmentagencies1.1 OverviewoftheETEProcessThefollowingoutlinepresentsabriefdescriptionoftheworkeffortinchronologicalsequence:1. InformationGathering:a. DefinedthescopeofworkindiscussionswithrepresentativesfromSouthernCaliforniaEdison(SCE).b. Attendedmeetingswithemergencyplannersfromvariousstateandlocalagenciestoidentifyissuestobeaddressedandresourcesavailable.c. ConductedadetailedfieldsurveyofthehighwaysystemandofareatrafficconditionswithintheEmergencyPlanningZone(EPZ)andShadowRegion.d. Obtaineddemographicdatafromthe2010censusandMCB.e. ConductedarandomsampletelephonesurveyofEPZresidents.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation1 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1f. Conductedadatacollectionefforttoidentifyanddescribeschools,specialfacilities,majoremployers,transportationproviders,andotherimportantinformation.2. EstimateddistributionsofTripGenerationtimesrepresentingthetimerequiredbyvariouspopulationgroups(permanentresidents,employees,andtransients)toprepare(mobilize)fortheevacuationtrip.Theseestimatesareprimarilybasedupontherandomsampletelepho nesurvey.3. DefinedEvacuationScenarios.Thesescenariosreflectthevariationindemand,intripgenerationdistributionandinhighwaycapacities,associatedwithdifferentseasons,dayofweek,timeofdayandweatherconditions.4. Reviewedtheexistingtrafficmanagementplantobeimplementedbylocalandstatepoliceintheeventofanincidentattheplant.Trafficcontrolisappliedatspecif iedTrafficControlPoints(TCP)locatedwithintheEPZ.5. UsedexistingProtectiveActionZones(PAZs)todefineEvacuationRegions.TheEPZispartitionedinto5PAZsalongjurisdictionalandgeographicboundaries."Regions"aregroupsofcontiguousPAZsforwhichETEar ecalculated.TheconfigurationsoftheseRegionsreflectwinddirectionandtheradialextentoftheimpactedarea.EachRegion,otherthanthosethatapproximatecircularareas,approximatesa"key holesection"withintheEPZasrecommendedbyNUREG/CR 7002.6. Estimateddemandfortransitservicesforpersonsat"SpecialFacilities"andfortransit dependentpersonsathome.7. PreparedtheinputstreamsfortheDYNEVIIsystem.a. Estimatedtheevacuationtrafficdemand,basedontheavailableinformationderivedfromCensusdata,andfromdataprovidedbylocalandstateagencies,SCEandfromthetelephonesurvey.b. Appliedtheproceduresspecifiedinthe2010HighwayCapacityManual(HCM 1)tothedataacquiredduringthefieldsurvey,toestimatethecapacityofallhighwaysegmentscomprisingtheevacuationroutes.c. Developedthelink noderepresentationoftheevacuationnetwork,whichisusedasthebasisforthecomputeranalysisthatcalculatestheETE.d. CalculatedtheevacuatingtrafficdemandforeachRegionandforeachScenario.e. Specifiedselectedcand idatedestinationsforeach"origin"(locationofeach"source"whereevacuationtripsaregeneratedoverthemobilizationtime)tosupportevacuationtravelconsistentwithoutboundmovementrelativetothelocationofSONGS.1HighwayCapacityManual(HCM2010),TransportationResearchBoard,NationalResearchCouncil,2010.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation1 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.18. ExecutedtheDYNEVIImodeltodetermineoptimalevacuationroutingandcomputeETEforallresidents,transientsandemployees("generalpopulation")withaccesstoprivatevehicles.GeneratedacompletesetofETEforallspecifiedRegionsandScenarios.9. DocumentedETEinformatsinaccordancewithNUREG/CR 7002.10. CalculatedtheETEforalltransitact ivitiesincludingthoseforspecialfacilities(schools,medicalfacilities,etc.),forthetransit dependentpopulationandforregisteredpeoplewithdisabilitiesandotherswithaccessandfunctionalneeds.1.2 TheSONGSPlantLocationSONGSislocatedalongthecoastofthePacificOceaninSanDiegoCounty,Californ ianeartheborderofOrangeCounty.Thesiteisapproximately60milessoutheastofLosAngeles,CAand50milesnorthwestofSanDiego,CA.TheEPZconsistsofpartsofOrangeandSanDiegoCountiesinCalifornia.Figure1 1displaystheareasurroundingSONGS.Thismapidentifiesthemajorpopul ationcentersandmajorroadsinthearea,andshowsthelocationoftheplantrelativetoLosAngelesandSanDiego.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation1 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure1 1.SONGSLocation SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation1 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.11.3 PreliminaryActivitiesTheseactivitiesaredescribedbelow.FieldSurveysoftheHighwayNetworkKLDpersonneldrovetheentirehighwaysystemwithintheEPZandtheShadowRegionwhichconsistsoftheareabetweentheEPZboundaryandapproximately15milesradiallyfromtheplant.Thecharacteristicsofeachsectionofhighwaywererecorded.ThesecharacteristicsareshowninTable1 2:Table1 2.HighwayCharacteristics Numberoflanes Postedspeed Lanewidth Actualfreespeed Shouldertype&width Abuttinglanduse Interchangegeometries Controldevices Lanechannelization&queuingcapacity(includingturnbays/lanes) Intersectionconfiguration(includingroundaboutswhereapplicable) Geometrics:curves,grades(>4%) Trafficsignaltype Unusualcharacteristics:Narrowbridges,sharpcurves,poorpavement,floodwarningsigns,inadequatedelineations,tollbooths,etc.Videoandaudiorecordingequipmentwereusedtocaptureapermanentrecordofthehighwayinfrastructure.Noattemptwasmadetometiculouslymeasuresuchattributesaslanewidthandshoulderwidth;estimatesofthesemeasuresbasedonvisualobservationandrecordedimageswereconsideredappropriateforthepurposeofestimatingthecapacityofhighwaysections.Forexample,Exhibit15 7intheHCMindicatesthatareductioninlanewidthfrom12feet(the"base"value)to10feetcanreducefreeflowspeed(FFS)by1.1mph-notamaterialdifference-fortwo lanehighways.Exhibit15 30intheHCMshowslittlesensitivityfortheestimatesofServiceVolumesatLevelofService(LOS)E(nearcapacity),withrespecttoFFS,fortwo lanehighways.Thedatafromtheaudioandvideorecordingswereusedtocreatedetailedgeographicalinformationsystems(GIS)shapefilesanddatabasesoftheroadwaycharacteristicsandofthetrafficcontroldevicesobservedduringtheroadsurvey;thisinformationwasreferencedwhilepreparingtheinputstreamfortheDYNEVIISystem.Asdocumentedonpage15 5oftheHCM2010,thecapacityofatwo lanehighwayis1700passengercarsperhourinonedirection.Forfreewaysections,avalueof2250vehiclesperhourperlaneisassigned,asperExhibit11 17oftheHCM2010.Theroadsurveyhasidentifiedseveralsegmentswhicharecharacterizedbyadversegeometricsontwo lanehighwayswhicharereflectedinreducedvaluesforbothcapacityandspeed.TheseestimatesareconsistentwiththeservicevolumesforLOSEpresentedinHCMExhibit15 30.Theselinksmaybe SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation1 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1identifiedbyreviewingAppendixK.LinkcapacityisaninputtoDYNEVIIwhichcomputestheETE.FurtherdiscussionofroadwaycapacityisprovidedinSection4ofthisreport.Trafficsignalsareeitherpre timed(signaltimingsarefixedovertimeanddonotchangewiththetrafficvolumeoncompetingapproaches),orareactuated(signaltimingsvaryovertimebasedonthechangingtrafficvolumesoncompetingap proaches).Actuatedsignalsrequiredetectorstoprovidethetrafficdatausedbythesignalcontrollertoadjustthesignaltimings.Thesedetectorsaretypicallymagneticloopsintheroadway,orvideocamerasmountedonthesignalmastsandpointedtowardtheinters ectionapproaches.Ifdetectorswereobservedontheapproachestoasignalizedintersectionduringtheroadsurvey,detailedsignaltimingswerenotcollectedasthetimingsvarywithtrafficvolume.TCPsatlocationswhichhavecontroldevicesarerepresentedasactuatedsignalsintheDYNEVIIsystem.Ifnodetectorswereob served,thesignalcontrolattheintersectionwasconsideredpre timed,anddetailedsignaltimingsweregatheredforseveralsignalcycles.ThesesignaltimingswereinputtotheDYNEVIIsystemusedtocomputeETE,asperNUREG/CR 7002guidance.Figure1 2presentsth elink nodeanalysisnetworkthatwasconstructedtomodeltheevacuationroadwaynetworkintheEPZandShadowRegion.ThedirectionalarrowsonthelinksandthenodenumbershavebeenremovedfromFigure1 2toclarifythefigure.ThedetailedfiguresprovidedinAppendixKdepicttheanal ysisnetworkwithdirectionalarrowsshownandnodenumbersprovided.Theobservationsmadeduringthefieldsurveywereusedtocalibratetheanalysisnetwork.TelephoneSurveyAtelephonesurveywasundertakentogatherinformationneededfortheevacuationstudy.AppendixFpresentsthesurveyinstrument,theproceduresusedandtabulationsofdatacompiledfromthesurveyreturns.Thesedatawereutilizedtodevelopestimatesofvehicleoccupancytoestimatethenumberofevacuatingvehiclesduringanevacuationandtoestimateel ementsofthemobilizationprocess.Thisdatabasewasalsoreferencedtoestimatethenumberoftransit dependentresidents.ComputingtheEvacuationTimeEstimatesTheoverallstudyprocedureisoutlinedinAppendixD.Demographicdatawereobtainedfromseveralsources,asdetailedlaterinthisreport.Thesedatawereanalyzedandconvertedintovehicledemanddata.Thevehicledemandwasloadedontoappropriate"source"linksoftheanalysisnetworkusingGISmappingsoftware.TheDYNEVIIsystemwasthenusedtocomput eETEforallRegionsandScenarios.AnalyticalToolsTheDYNEVIISystemthatwasemployedforthisstudyiscomprisedofseveralintegratedcomputermodels.OneoftheseistheDYNEV(DYnamicNetworkEVacuation)macroscopicsimulationmodel,anewversionoftheIDYNEVmodelthatwasdevelopedbyKLDundercontractwiththeFederalEmergencyManagementAgency(FEMA).

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation1 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure1 2.SONGSLink NodeAnalysisNetwork SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation1 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DYNEVIIconsistsoffoursub models: Amacroscopictrafficsimulationmodel(fordetails,seeAppendixC). ATripDistribution(TD),modelthatassignsasetofcandidatedestination(D)nodesforeach"origin"(O)locatedwithintheanalysisnetwork,whereevacuationtripsare"generated"overtime.ThisestablishesasetofO Dtables. ADynamicTrafficAssignment(DT A),modelwhichassignstripstopathsoftravel(routes)whichsatisfytheO Dtables,overtime.TheTDandDTAmodelsareintegratedtoformtheDTRAD(DynamicTrafficAssignmentandDistribution)model,asdescribedinAppendixB. AMyopicTrafficDiversionmodelwh ichdivertstraffictoavoidintense,localcongestion,ifpossible.AnothersoftwareproductdevelopedbyKLD,namedUNITES(UNIfiedTransportationEngineeringSystem)wasusedtoexpeditedataentryandtoautomatetheproductionofoutputtables.Thedynamicsoftrafficflowoverthenetworkaregraphicallyanimatedusingthesoftwareproduct,EVAN(EVacuationANimator),developedbyKLD.EVANisGISbased,anddisplaysstatisticssuchasLOS,vehiclesdischarged,averagespeed,andpercentofvehiclesevacuated,outputbytheDYNEVIISystem.TheuseofaGISframeworkenablestheusertozoominonareasofcongestionandqueryroadname,townnameandothergeographicalinformation.TheprocedureforapplyingtheDYNEVIISystemwithintheframeworkofdevelopingETEisoutlinedinAppendixD.AppendixAisaglossaryofterms.Forthereaderinterestedinanevaluationoftheoriginalmodel,I DYNEV,thefollowingreferencesaresuggested: NUREG/CR 4873-BenchmarkStudyoftheI DYNEVEvacuationTimeEstimateComputerCode NUREG/CR 4874-TheSensitivityofEvacuati onTimeEstimatestoChangesinInputParametersfortheI DYNEVComputerCodeTheevacuationanalysisproceduresarebasedupontheneedto: RoutetrafficalongpathsoftravelthatwillexpeditetheirtravelfromtheirrespectivepointsoforigintopointsoutsidetheEPZ. Restrictmovementtowardtheplanttotheextentpracticable,anddispersetrafficdemandsoastoavoidfocusingdemandonalimitednumberofhighways. Movetrafficindirectionsthataregenerallyoutbound,relativetothelocationoftheSONGS.DYNEVIIprovidesadetaileddescriptionoftrafficoperationsontheevacuationnetwork.Thisdescriptionenablestheanalysttoidentifybottlenecksandtodevelopcountermeasuresthat SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation1 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1aredesignedtorepresentthebehavioralresponsesofevacuees.Theeffectsofthesecountermeasuresmaythenbetestedwiththemodel.1.4 ComparisonwithPriorETEStudyTable1 3presentsacomparisonofthepresentETEstudywiththe2007study.ThemajorfactorscontributingtothedifferencesbetweentheETEvaluesobtainedinthisstudyandthoseofthepreviousstudycanbesummarizedasfollows: Populationbasedupon2010Censusdataresultedina17%reductioninpermanentresidentpo pulationfromtheprojected2011populationusedinthepreviousstudy.The2011projectedpopulationwasbasedupon2000U.S.Censusdata. VehicleoccupancybasedontheresultsofatelephonesurveyofEPZresidentsandresultedinfewerevacuatingvehiclesforpermanentresidents(1.3persons/vehicleusedinthepreviousstudycomparedwith1.85persons/vehicleusedinthecurrentstudy). Trip generationratesarebasedontheresultsofatelephonesurveyofEPZresidents.Differentmobilizationratesareusedfordifferentpopulationgroupscomparedwit hasinglemobilizationrateforallpopulationgroupsusedinthepreviousstudy.Currentstudyassumedtransientswouldmobilizemorequicklythanthepermanentresidentpopulation,whereasthepreviousstudyassumedtheywouldtaketh esameamountoftimetomobilize. Thepreviousstudybasedtransientestimatesupondatafromthe4 thofJulyweekend,thusinflatingaveragetransientpopulationwithintheEPZ.Thecurrentstudyusedaveragevaluesovertheentireseasonandconsidered4 thofJulyweekendasanadditionalscenario. Currentstudymodelsintersectionsastheywereobservedtooperateinthefield,whereasthepreviousstudymodeledmajorsignalizedintersectionssettoflashmode,givingprioritytothemaindirection.Table1 3.ETEStudyComparisonsTopicPreviousETEStudyCurrentETEStudyResidentPopulationBasis2000census,growntoyear20112011Population=184,947ArcGISSoftwareusing2010USCensusblocks;arearatiomethodused.Population=153,357ResidentPopulationVehicleOccupancyA veragehouseholdsizeandvehicleownershipstatisticsobtainedfromthe2000censuswereappliedtoeachcommunitytoestimatethenumberofvehiclesperhouseholdsandpersonsinhouseholdswithoutvehicles.Averagevehicleoccupancy=1.3persons/vehicle 2.63persons/household,1.42evacuatingvehicles/householdyielding:1.85persons/vehicle.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation1 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TopicPreviousETEStudyCurrentETEStudyEmployeePopulation2000CensusstatisticsandestimatesbasedonCSUFprojectionsEmployees=12,703transientworkers1.2employees/vehicleEmployeeestimatesbasedoninformationprovidedaboutmajoremployersinEPZ,aswellascensusstatistics.1.10employeespervehiclebasedontelephonesurveyresults.Employees=21,274TransitDependentPopulationCensusdatausedtoprovideanestimateofthenumberofpeoplewithoutaccesstopersonaltransportation.13,597transitdependents70persons/bus195busloadsAnadditional529registeredpeoplewithdisabilitiesandotherswithaccessandfunctionalneeds(311ambulatory,164requiringwheelchairvansand54requiringambulances)Estimat esbaseduponU.S.Censusdataandtheresultsofthetelephonesurvey.Atotalof4,514peoplewhodonothaveaccesstoavehicle(assuming50%ofthosewithoutaccesstoavehicleridesharewithafriendorneighbor),requiring151busestoevacuate.Anadditional259registeredpe oplewithdisabilitiesandotherswithaccessandfunctionalneedsrequirespecialtransportationtoevacuate(129ambulatory,130requireawheelchairaccessiblevehicle).TransientPopulationTransientestimatesbasedonattendancerecordsatparksandbeachesduringpeak4 thofJulyweekend.42,062recreationvisitorsTransientestimatesbaseduponinformationprovidedabouttransientattractionsinEPZ,U.S.Censusdata,andsupplementedbyobservationsofthefacilitiesduringtheroadsurveyandfromaerialphotography.Transients=29,760MedicalFacilityPopulationSpecialfacilitypopulationbasedoninformationprovidedbyinstitutionalstaffs.SpecialFacilityPopulation=1,199Ambulancesrequired:13WheelchairVansrequired:59Busesrequired:23SpecialfacilitypopulationbasedoninformationprovidedbyeachcountywithintheEPZ.Currentcensus=913BusesRequired=89AmbulancesRequired=55 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation1 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TopicPreviousETEStudyCurrentETEStudySchoolPopulationPublicschoolenrollment:19,944Privateschoolenrollment:5,648Totalschoolenrollment:25,592Assumedsomestudentswillnotrequiretransportationandfurtherassumed60persons/buswouldrequire352publictransitbusesneededSchoolpopulationbasedoninformationprovidedbylocalmunicipalitieswithintheEPZ.Schoolenrollment=27,281Busesrequired=506Assumesallstudentswillevacuatebybus.VoluntaryevacuationfromwithinEPZinareasoutsideregiontobeevacuatedNotconsidered20percentofthepopulationwithintheEPZ,butnotwithintheEvacuationRegion(seeFigure2 1)ShadowEvacuation0%Shadowevacuationassumedinthebaseanalysis.Sensitivitystudyconsiders20%shadowdemand20%ofpeopleoutsideoftheEPZwithintheShadowRegion(seeFigure7 2)NetworkSizeN/A2,173links;1,629nodesRoadwayGeometricDataFieldreview,aerialphotography,andtrafficengineeringanalysesCapacitiesbasedon2000HCM.FieldsurveysconductedinJanuary2012.Roadsandintersectionswerevideoarchived.Roadcapacitiesbasedon2010HCM.ModelingofTrafficSignalsAssumedtrafficsignalsontheapproachestoI 5,aswellasatsignificantintersectionswithintheEPZandtheshadowring,willataminimumbesettoflashmode,withtheflashingyellowsupportingaprimaryevacuationpath.

Capacitiesbetween1,000 1,400vehicles/ln/hrusedTrafficsignalsaremode ledbasedonfieldobservations.TCPsincorporatedintothemodelasactuatedsignals.Capacitiesupto1900vehicles/ln/hrusedSchoolEvacuationDirectevacuationtoadestinationoutsideoftheEPZ.Directevacuationtodesignatedreceptioncenter.RidesharingNotconsidered50percentoftransitdependentpersonswillevacuatewithaneighbororfriend.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation1 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TopicPreviousETEStudyCurrentETEStudyTripGenerationforEvacuationTripGenerationcurvesadaptedfromNUREG 0654SamplesofTimetoCompleteEvacuationPhases.Singlemobilizationcurveforallpopulationgroupsstartsat15minutesandendsat255minutes.Basedonresidentialtelephonesurveyofspecificpre tripmobilizationactivities:Residentswithcommutersreturningleavebetween30and300minu tes.Residentswithoutcommutersreturningleavebetween15and240minutes.Employeesandtransientsleavebetween15and120minutes.AlltimesmeasuredfromtheAdvisorytoEvacuate.WeatherNormalandAdverse(rainorfog).Freeways:16%speedreduction,15%capacityreductionArterials:10%reductioninspeed,6%reductionincapacityNormalandRain.Thecapacityandfreeflowspeedofalllinksinthenetworkarereducedby10%intheeventofrainModelingDYNASMART-PDYNEVIISystem-Version4.0.11.0SpecialEventsNoneconsidered4 thofJulyweekend167,630additionaltransientsand64,239additionalvehiclesEvacuationCases5Regionsand5Scenariosproducing25uniquebasecases.21Regions(centralsectorwinddirectionandeachadjacentsectortechniqueused)and13Scenariosproducing273uniquecases.EvacuationTimeEstimatesReportingETEreportedthe100 thpercentilepopulationfor5regionsexcludingthefullEPZ.ResultspresentedbyRegionandScenario.ETEreportedfor90 thand100 thpercentilepopulation.ResultspresentedbyRegionandScenario.EvacuationTimeEstimatesfortheregionconsistingofPAZ1,4,and5,100 thpercentileWeekday,GoodWeather:9:30Weekend,GoodWeather,9:12Region10Summer,Midweek,Midday,Goodweather:7:00 Summer,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather:6:15 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation2 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.12 STUDYESTIMATESANDASSUMPTIONSThissectionpresentstheestimatesandassumptionsutilizedinthedevelopmentoftheevacuationtimeestimates.2.1 DataEstimates1. PopulationestimatesarebaseduponCensus2010dataanddatareceivedfromMCB.2. EstimatesofemployeeswhoresideoutsidetheEPZandcommutetoworkwithintheEPZarebasedupondataobtainedfromtheU.S.CensusBureau,CenterforEconomicStudies3. Populationestimatesatspecialfacilitiesarebasedonavailabledatafromcountyemergencymanagementofficesandfromphonecallstospecificfacilities.4. RoadwaycapacityestimatesarebasedonfieldsurveysandtheapplicationoftheHighwayCa pacityManual2010.5. PopulationmobilizationtimesarebasedonastatisticalanalysisofdataacquiredfromarandomsampletelephonesurveyofEPZresidents(seeSection5andAppendixF).6. Therelationshipbetweenresidentpopulationandevacuatingvehiclesisdevelopedfromthetelephonesurvey.Averagevaluesof2.63personsperhouseholdand1.42evacuatingvehiclesperhouseholdareused.Therelationshipbetweenpersonsandvehiclesfortransientsandemployeesisasfollows:a. Employees:1.10employeespervehicle(telephonesurveyresults)forallmajoremployers.b. Parks:Vehicleoccupancyvariesbasedupondatagatheredfromlocaltransientfacilities.SeeAppendixE.c. SpecialEvents:Transientsintheareaforth e4 thofJulyweekendtravelasfamilies/householdsinasinglevehicle,andusedtheaveragehouseholdsizeof2.63personsasthevehicleoccupancyfactor.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation2 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.12.2 StudyMethodologicalAssumptions1. ETEarepresentedfortheevacuationofthe90 thand100 thpercentilesofpopulationforeachRegionandforeachScenario.ThepercentileETEisdefinedastheelapsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateissuedtoaspecificRegionoftheEPZ,tothetimethatRegionisclearoftheindicatedpercentileofevacuees.ARegionisdefinedasagroupofPAZthatisissuedanAdvisorytoEvacuate.Ascenarioisacombinationofcircumstances,includingtimeofday,dayofweek,season,andweatherconditions.2. TheETEarecomputedandpresentedintabularformatandgraphically,inaformatcompliantwithNUREG/CR 7002.3. Evacuationmovements(pathsoftravel)aregenerallyoutboundrelativetotheplanttotheextentpermittedbythehighwaynetwork.Allmajorevacuationroutesareusedintheanalysis.4. Regionsaredefinedbytheunderlying"keyhole"orcircularconfigurationsasspecifiedinSection1.4ofNUREG/CR 7002.Th eseRegions,asdefined,displayirregularboundariesreflectingthegeographyofthePAZincludedwithintheseunderlyingconfigurations.5. AsindicatedinFigure2 2ofNUREG/CR 7002,100%ofpeoplewithintheimpacted"keyhole"evacuate.20%ofthosepeoplewithintheEPZ,notwithintheimpactedkeyhole,willvoluntarilyevacuate.20%ofthosepeoplewithintheShadowRegionwillvoluntarilyevacuate.SeeFigure2 1foragraphicalrepresentationoftheseevacuationpercentages.SensitivitystudiesexploretheeffectonETEofincreasingthepercentageofvoluntaryevacueesintheShadowRegion(seeAppendixM).6. Atotalof13"Scenarios"representingdifferenttemporalvariations(season,timeofday,dayofweek)andweatherco nditionsareconsidered.TheseScenariosareoutlinedinTable2 1.7. Scenario12considerstheclosureofasinglelanenorthboundonInterstate 5fromSONGS(approximately2milessouthofBasiloneRd(Exit71)totheendoftheanalysis networkattheinterchangewithOsoParkway(Exit88).8. ThemodelsoftheI DYNEVSystemwererecognizedasstateoftheartbytheAtomicSafety&LicensingBoard(ASLB)inpasthearings.(Sources:AtomicSafety&LicensingBoardHearingsonSeabrookandShoreham;Urbanik 1).ThemodelshavecontinuouslybeenrefinedandextendedsincethosehearingsandwereindependentlyvalidatedbyaconsultantretainedbytheNRC.ThenewDYNEVIImodelincorporatesthelatesttechnologyintrafficsimulationandindynamictrafficassignment.1Urbanik,T.,et.al.BenchmarkStudyoftheIDYNEVEvacuationTimeEstimateComputerCode,NUREG/CR4873,NuclearRegulatoryCommission,June,1988.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation2 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table2 1.EvacuationScenarioDefinitionsScenarioSeason 2DayofWeekTimeofDayWeatherSpecial1SummerMidweekMiddayGoodNone2SummerMidweekMiddayRainNone3SummerWeekendMiddayGoodNone4SummerWeekendMiddayRainNone5SummerMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone6WinterMidweekMiddayGoodNone7WinterMidweekMiddayRainNone8WinterWeekendMiddayGoodNone9WinterWeekendMiddayRainNone10WinterMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone11SummerWeekendMiddayGood4 thofJulyWeekend12SummerMidweekMiddayGoodRoadwayImpact-SingleLaneClosureonI 5Northbound13SummerMidweekMiddayGoodEarthquake2Wintermeansthatschoolisinsession(alsoappliestospringandautumn).Summermeansthatschoolisnotinsession.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation2 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure2 1.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation2 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.12.3 StudyAssumptions1. ThePlanningBasisAssumptionforthecalculationofETEisarapidlyescalatingaccidentthatrequiresevacuation,andincludesthefollowing:a. AdvisorytoEvacuateisannouncedcoincidentwiththesirennotification.b. Mobilizationofthegeneralpopulationwillcommencewithin15minutesaftersirennotification.c. ETEaremeasuredrelativetotheAdvisorytoEvacuate.2. ItisassumedthateveryonewithinthegroupofPAZformingaRegionthatisissuedanAdvisorytoEvacuatewill,infact,respondandevacuateingeneralaccordwiththeplannedroutes.3. 57percentofthehouseholdsintheEPZhaveatleast1co mmuter;36percentofthosehouseholdswithcommuterswillawaitthereturnofacommuterbeforebeginningtheirevacuationtrip,basedonthetelephonesurveyresults.Therefore21percent(57%x36%=21%)ofEPZhouseholdswillawaitthereturnofacommuter,priortobeginningtheirevacuationtrip.4. TheETEwillalsoincludeconsiderationof"through"(External External)tripsduringthetimethatsuchtrafficispermittedtoentertheevacuatedRegion."Normal"trafficflowisassumedtobepresentwithintheEPZatthestartoftheemergency.5. AccessControlPoints(ACP)willbestaffedwithinapproximately30minutesfollowingthesirennotifications,todiverttrafficattemptingtoentertheEPZ.ItisassumedthatnothroughtrafficwillentertheEPZafterthis30minutetimeperiod.6. TrafficControlPoints(TCP)withintheEPZwillbestaffedovertime,beginningatth eAdvisorytoEvacuate.TheirnumberandlocationwilldependontheRegiontobeevacuatedandresourcesavailable.TheobjectivesoftheseTCPare:a. Facilitatethemovementsofall(mostlyevacuating)vehiclesatthelocation.b. Discourageinadvertentvehiclemovementstowardstheplant.c. Provideassuranceandguidancetoanytrav elerwhoisunsureoftheappropriateactionsorrouting.d. Actaslocalsurveillanceandcommunicationscenter.e. Provideinformationtotheemergencyoperationscenter(EOC)asneeded,basedondirectobservationoroninformationprovidedbytravelers.IncalculatingETE,itisassumedthatevacueeswilldrivesafely,travelindirectionsidentifiedintheplan,andobeyallcontroldevicesandtrafficguides.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation2 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.17. Buseswillbeusedtotransportthosewithoutaccesstoprivatevehicles:a. Ifschoolsareinsession,transport(buses)willevacuatestudentsdirectlytothedesignatedreceptioncenters.b. Transport(buses)willevacuatechildrenenrolledatpreschoolsanddaycaresdirectlytothedesignatedreceptioncenters.c. Buses,wheelchairvansandambulanceswillevacuatepatientsatmedicalfacilitiesandatanyseniorfacilitieswithintheEPZ,asneeded.d. Transit dependentgeneralpopulationwillbeevacuatedtoreceptioncenters.e. Schoolchildren,ifschoolisinsession,aregivenpriorityinassignin gtransitvehicles.f. BusmobilizationtimeisconsideredinETEcalculations.g. Analysisofthenumberofrequiredround trips("waves")ofevacuatingtransitvehiclesispresented.h. Transportoftransit dependentev acueesfromreceptioncenterstocongregatecarecentersisnotconsideredinthisstudy.8. Provisionsaremadeforevacuatingthetransit dependentportionofthegeneralpopulationtoreceptioncent ersbybus,basedontheassumptionthatsomeofthesepeoplewillride sharewithfamily,neighbors,andfriends,thusreducingthedemandforbuses.Weassumethatthepercentageofpeoplewhorideshareis50percent.Thisassumptionisbaseduponreportedexperienceforotheremergencies 3 ,andonguidanceinSection2.2ofNUREG/CR 7002.9. Onetypeofadverseweatherscenarioisconsidered.Rainmayoccurforeitherwinterorsummerscenarios.Itisassumedthattherainbeginsearlierorataboutthesametimetheevacuationadvisoryisissued.Noweather relatedreductioninthenumberoftransientswhomaybepresentinth eEPZisassumed.Adverseweatherscenariosaffectroadwaycapacityandthefreeflowhighwayspeeds.ThefactorsappliedfortheETEstudyarebasedonrecentresearchontheeffectsofweatheronroadwayoperations 4;thefactorsareshowninTable2 2.

3InstituteforEnvironmentalStudies,UniversityofToronto,THEMISSISSAUGAEVACUATIONFINALREPORT,June1981.Thereportindicatesthat6,600peopleofatransitdependentpopulationof8,600peoplesharedrideswithotherresidents;aridesharerateof76%(Page510).4Agarwal,M.et.Al.ImpactsofWeatheronUrbanFreewayTrafficFlowCharacteristicsandFacilityCapacity,Proceedingsofthe2005Mid ContinentTransportationResearchSymposium,August,2005.TheresultsofthispaperareincludedasExhibit10 15intheHCM2010.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation2 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.110. Schoolbusesusedtotransportstudentsareassumedtotransport70studentsperbusforelementaryschoolsand50studentsperbusformiddleandhighschools,basedondiscussionswithcountyofficesofemergencymanagement.Transitbusesusedtotransportthetransit dependentgeneralpopulationareassumedtotransport30peopleperbus.Table2 2.ModelAdjustmentforAdverseWeatherScenarioHighwayCapacity*FreeFlowSpeed*MobilizationTimeforGeneralPopulationRain90%90%NoEffect*Adverseweathercapacityandspeedvaluesaregivenasapercentageofgoodweatherconditions.Roadsareassumedtobepassable.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation3 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13 DEMANDESTIMATIONTheestimatesofdemand,expressedintermsofpeopleandvehicles,constituteacriticalelementindevelopinganevacuationplan.Theseestimatesconsistofthreecomponents:1. AnestimateofpopulationwithintheEPZ,stratifiedintogroups(resident,employee,transient).2. Anestimate,foreachpopulationgroup,ofmeanoccupancyperevacuatingvehicle.Thisestimateisusedtodeterminethenumberofevacuatingvehicles.3. Anestimateofpotentialdouble countingofvehicles.AppendixEpresentsmuchofthesourcematerialforthepopulationestimates.Ourprimarysourceofpopulationdata,the2010Census,however,isnotadequatefordirectlyestimatingsometransientgroups.Throughouttheyear,v acationersandtouristsentertheEPZ.Thesenon residentsmaydwellwithintheEPZforashortperiod(e.g.afewdaysoroneortwoweeks),ormayenterandleavewithinoneday.Estimatesofthesizeofthesepopulationcomponentsmustbeobtained,sothattheassociatednumberofevacuatingvehiclescanbeas certained.Thepotentialfordouble countingpeopleandvehiclesmustbeaddressed.Forexample: AresidentwhoworksandshopswithintheEPZcouldbecountedasaresident,againasanemployeeandonceagainasashopper. Avisitorwhostaysatahotelandspendstimeatapark,the ngoesshoppingcouldbecountedthreetimes.Furthermore,thenumberofvehiclesatalocationdependsontimeofday.Forexample,motelparkinglotsmaybefullatdawnandemptyatnoon.Similarly,parkinglotsatareaparks,whicharefullatnoon,maybealmostem ptyatdawn.EstimatingcountsofvehiclesbysimplyaddingupthecapacitiesofdifferenttypesofparkingfacilitieswilltendtooverestimatethenumberoftransientsandcanleadtoETEthataretooconservative.AnalysisofthepopulationcharacteristicsoftheSONGSEPZindicatestheneedtoidentifyfourdistinctgroups: PermanentresidentspeoplewhoareyearroundresidentsoftheEPZ. Seasonalresidents-peoplewhoareresidentsoftheEPZduringthesummermonths. TransientspeoplewhoresideoutsideoftheEPZwhoentertheareaforaspecificpurpose(shopping,recreation)andthenleavethearea. EmployeespeoplewhoresideoutsideoftheEPZandcommutetobusinesseswithintheEPZonadailybasis.EstimatesofthepopulationandnumberofevacuatingvehiclesforeachofthepopulationgroupsarepresentedforeachPAZandbypolarcoordinaterepresentation(populationrose).TheSONGSEPZissubdividedinto5PAZs.TheEPZisshowninFigure3 1.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation3 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.1 PermanentResidentsTheprimarysourceforestimatingpermanentpopulationisthelatestU.S.Censusdata.Theaveragehouseholdsize(2.63persons/household-SeeFigureF 1)andthenumberofevacuatingvehiclesperhousehold(1.42vehicles/household-SeeFigureF 8)wereadaptedfromthetelephonesurveyresults.PermanentpopulationestimatesarebaseduponCensus2010data.Th eestimatesarecreatedbycuttingthecensusblockpolygonsbythePAZandEPZboundaries.Aratiooftheoriginalareaofeachcensusblockandtheupdatedarea(aftercutting)ismultipliedbythetotalblockpopulationtoestimatewhatthepopulationiswithintheEPZ.Thismethodologyassumesthatthepopulationisevenlydistributedacrossacensusblock.Table3 1providesthepermanentresidentpo pulationwithintheEPZ,byPAZbasedonthismethodology.PermanentresidentpopulationestimateswithinMCBwereprovidedbyMCB.Theyear2010permanentresidentpopulationisdividedbytheaverag ehouseholdsizeandthenmultipliedbytheaveragenumberofevacuatingvehiclesperhouseholdinordertoestimatenumberofvehicles.PermanentresidentpopulationandvehicleestimatesarepresentedinTable3 2.Figure3 2andFigure3 3presentthepermanentresidentpopulationandpermanentresidentvehicleestimatesbysectoranddistancefromSONGS.This"rose"wasconstructedusingGISsoftware.Itcanbearguedthatthisestimateofpermanentresidentsoverstates,somewhat,thenumberofevacuatingvehicles,especiallyduringthesummer.Itiscertainlyreasonabletoassertthatsomeportionofthepopulationwouldbeonvacationduringthesummerandwouldtravelelsewhere.Aroughestimateofthisreductioncanbeobtainedasfollows: Assume50percentofallhouseholdsvacationforatwoweekperiodoverthesummer. Assumethesevacations,inaggregate,areuniformlydispersedover10weeks,i.e.10percentofthepopulationisonvacationduringeachtwo weekinterval. Assumehalfofthesevacationersleavethearea.Onthisbasis,thepermanentresidentpopulationwouldbereducedby5percentinthesummerandbyalesseramountintheoffseason.Giventheuncertaintyinthisestimate,weelectedtoapplynoreductionsinpermanentresidentpopulationforthesummerscenariostoaccountfo rresidentswhomaybeoutofthearea.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation3 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 1.SONGSEPZ SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation3 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 1.EPZPermanentResidentPopulationPAZ2000Population 2010Population 12154,533200311,51311,997450,08968,879568,94767,948TOTAL130,764153,357EPZPopulationGrowth:17.28%Table3 2.PermanentResidentPopulationandVehiclesbyPAZPAZ2010Population2010ResidentVehicles14,5332,447200311,9976,477468,87937,192567,94836,682TOTAL153,35782,798 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation3 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 2.PermanentResidentPopulationbySector SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation3 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 3.PermanentResidentVehiclesbySector SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation3 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.2 ShadowPopulationAportionofthepopulationlivingoutsidetheevacuationareaextendingto15milesradiallyfromtheSONGS(intheShadowRegion)mayelecttoevacuatewithouthavingbeeninstructedtodoso.BaseduponNUREG/CR 7002guidance,itisassumedthat20percentofthepermanentresidentpopulation,basedonU.S.CensusBureaudata,inthisShadowRegionwillelecttoevacuate.Shadowpopulationcharacteristics(householdsize,evacuatingvehiclesperhousehold,mobilizationtime)areassumedtobethesameasthatfortheEPZpermanentresidentpopulation.Table3 3,Figure3 4,andFigure3 5presentestimatesoftheshadowpopulationandvehicles,bysector.Table3 3.ShadowPopulationandVehiclesbySectorSectorPopulationEvacuatingVehiclesN5,2012,804NNE12970NE5529ENE367198E1,380744ESE6,0933,289SE17,3959,392SSE00S00SSW00SW00WSW00W00WNW00NW43,03723,237NNW37,38820,185TOTAL111,04559,948 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation3 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 4.ShadowPopulationbySector SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation3 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 5.ShadowVehiclesbySector SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation3 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.3 TransientPopulationTransientpopulationgroupsaredefinedasthosepeople(whoarenotpermanentresidents,norcommutingemployees)whoentertheEPZforaspecificpurpose(shopping,recreation,seasonalmigration).Transientsmaystayforonlyoneseason,spendlessthanonedayintheEPZ,orstayovernightatcampingfacilities,hotelsandmotels.TheSONGsEPZhasanumberofareasandfacilitiesthatattracttransients,including: LodgingFacilities Marinas Parks Beaches Campgrounds GolfCourses SeasonalResidencesSurveysoflodgingfacilitieswithintheEPZwereconductedtodeterminethenumberofrooms,percentageofoccupiedroomsatpe aktimes,andthenumberofpeopleandvehiclesperroomforeachfacility.Thesedatawereusedtoestimatethenumberoftransientsandevacuatingvehiclesateachofthesefacilities.Atotalof5,041transientsin3,150vehiclesareassignedtolodgingfacilitiesintheEPZ.Asurveywasconductedtodeterminethenumberofslips,averagedailyattendance,andthepercentageoflocalvisitorsfortheDanaPointHarbor.Thesedatawereusedtoestimatethenumberoftransientsandevacuatingvehiclesateachofthesefacilities.Atotalof396transientsand153vehiclesareassignedtotheharbor.Asurveyofparkswasconductedtodetermin ethenumberoftransientsvisitingtheparkswithininEPZonatypicalday.Atotalof2,150transientsand817vehicleshavebeenassignedtotheseparks.SurveysofbeacheswithintheEPZwereconductedtodeterminethenumberbeachgoersandvehiclespresentateachbeachduringpeaktimes.Thesedatawe reusedtoestimatethenumberofevacuatingvehiclesfortransientsateachofthesefacilities.Atotalof15,620transientsand3,792vehiclesareassignedtobeachesintheEPZ.SurveysofcampgroundswithintheEPZwereconductedtodeterminethenumberofcampsites,peakoccup ancy,thenumberofvehiclesandpeoplepercampsite,aswellasthepercentageofcampersthatarelocalforeachfacility.Thesedatawereusedtoestimatethenumberofevacuatingvehiclesfortransientsateachofthesefacilities.Atotalof4,302transientsand1,230vehiclesareassignedtocampgroundsintheEPZ.TherearesixgolfcourseswithintheEPZ.Surveysofgolfcourseswereconductedtodeterminethenumberofgolfersandvehiclesateachfacilityonatypicalpeakday,andthenumberofgolfersthattravelsfromoutsidethearea.Atotalof137transientsand87vehiclesareassignedtogolfcourseswithintheEPZ.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation3 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1AppendixEsummarizesthetransientdatathatwasestimatedfortheEPZ.TableE 4presentsthenumberoftransientsvisitingrecreationalareas,whileTableE 5presentsthenumberoftransientsatlodgingfacilitieswithintheEPZ.Table3 4presentstransientpopulationandtransientvehicleestimatesbyPAZ.Figure3 6andFigure3 7presentthesedatabysectoranddist ancefromtheplant.3.4 SeasonalTransientPopulationTheSONGSEPZhasasecondarycategoryoftransientpopulationwhichisseasonalresidents.Thesepeoplewillentertheareaduringthesummermonthsandmaystayconsiderablylonger(severalweeksorth eentireseason)thantheaveragetransientusingahotelormotel.Theseasonalpopulationuseotherlodgingfacilitiessuchascondos,beachhousesandsummerrentalsthatotherwisewouldnotbecapturedinatypicallodgingpopulation.Themethodologybehindcalculatingtheseasonalpopulationinvolvesusing2010CensusBlockdata.EachCensusBlockincludesinformationregardingthenumberofvacantan doccupiedhouseholds.UsingthisCensusdata,anaveragevacanthouseholdpercentage(11%)wascalculatedfortheentireSONGSEPZ.ItisassumedthatseasonalresidentswillberentinghomesthroughouttheEPZ.Itisfurtherassumedthat11%ofthevacantho meswithintheseCensusblocksareuninhabitedatalltimesanddonotserveasrentalhomes.Thepercentageofvacanthousingreportedbythecensusinexcessof11%wasassumedtobeseasonallyrented.Anaveragehouseholdsizeof2.63personsperhouseholdisusedtodetermin etheseasonaltransientpopulation,and1.42evacuatingvehiclesperseasonalhouseholdisusedtodeterminethenumberofseasonaltransientvehicles.Thesenumbersareadaptedfromthetelephonesurveyresults(seeAppendixF).Itisestimatedthatthereisanadditionalseasonalpopulationof2,114transientsand1,097transientvehicleswithintheSONGSEPZ.Th esenumbersareincludedwiththetransientpopulationinTable3 4aswellasFigure3 6andFigure3 7.Table3 4.SummaryofTransientsandTransientVehiclesPAZTransientsTransientVehiclesSeasonalResidents OtherVisitorsSeasonalResidents OtherVisitors106,45701,836200003000041,0434,8645411,87851,07116,3255565,515Total2,11427,6461,0979,229 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation3 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 6.TransientPopulationbySector SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation3 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 7.TransientVehiclesbySector SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation3 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.5 EmployeesEmployeeswhoworkwithintheEPZfallintotwocategories: ThosewholiveandworkintheEPZ ThosewholiveoutsideoftheEPZandcommutetojobswithintheEPZ.Thoseofthefirstcategoryarealreadycountedaspartofthepermanentresidentpopulation.Toavoiddoublecounting,wefocusonlyonthoseemployeescommutingfromoutsidetheEPZwhowillevacuatealongwiththepermanentresidentpopulation.EmploymentdataregardingthemaximumshiftemploymentwasobtainedfromSONGSaswellasMCB.ThenumberofemployeesandemployeevehiclesderivedfromeachofthesefacilitiesareprovidedinTable3 5.DataobtainedfromtheUSCensusLongitudinalEmployer HouseholdDynamicsfromtheOnTheMapCensusanalysistool 1wereusedtoestimatethenumberofemployeescommutingintotheEPZthatareattributabletoallothermajoremployers.The2010WorkplaceAreaCharacteristicdatawasalsoobtainedfromthiswebsiteandwasusedtodeterminethenumberofemployeesbyCensusBlockwithintheSONGSEPZ.SincenotallemployeesareworkingatfacilitieswithintheEPZatonetime,ama ximumshiftreductionwasapplied.TheWorkAreaProfileReport,alsooutputbytheOnTheMapApplication,breaksdownjobswithintheEPZbyindustrysector.AssumingmaximumshiftemploymentoccursMondaythroughFridaybetween9AMand5PM,thefollowingjobstakeplaceoutsidethetypical9 5workday: Manufacturing-5.6%ofjobs;takesplaceinshiftsover24hours Arts,Entertainment,andRecreation-2.5%ofjobs;takesplaceineveningsandonweekends AccommodationsandFoodServices-14.4%ofjobs;peaksintheevenin gsThemaximumshiftintheEPZisabout77.5%(100%5.6%2.5%14.4%=77.5%).Thisvaluewasappliedtothetotalemploymentin2010torepresentthemaximumnumberofemployeespresentintheEPZatanyonetime.TheInflow/OutflowReportfortheSONGSEPZwasthenusedtocalculatethepercentofemployeesthatworkwithintheEPZbutliveoutside.Thisvalue,74.1%,wasappliedtothemaximumshiftemployeevaluestocomputethenumberofpeoplecommutingintotheEPZtoworkatpeaktimes.InTable3 5,theEmployees(MaxShift)aremultipliedbythepercentnon EPZfactortodeterminethenumberofemployeeswhoarenotresidentsoftheEPZ.Avehicleoccupancyof1.10employeespervehicleobtainedfromthetelephonesurvey(SeeFigureF 7)wasusedtodeterminethenumberofevacuatingemployeevehiclesforallmajorem ployers.Table3 5presentsnon EPZResidentemployeeandvehicleestimatesbyPAZ.Figure3 8andFigure3 9presentthesedatabysector.1http://onthemap.ces.census.gov/

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation3 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 5.SummaryofNon EPZResidentEmployeesandEmployeeVehiclesMaxShiftEmploymentusedforIndividualEmployersMajorEmployer2010Employment(50+Employees)MaxShiftNonEPZEmployees(74.1%)EmployeeVehicles(1.10Emp/Veh)SONGS3,1502,4981,8511,683MCBN/A443331302AllotherEmployersDerivedfromCensusStatisticsPAZ2010Employment(50+Employees)MaxShift(77.5%)NonEPZEmployees(74.1%)EmployeeVehicles(1.10Emp/Veh)3390302223202417,28813,3989,9309,024515,56612,0648,9398,122TOTAL:28,70521,27419,333 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation3 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 8.EmployeePopulationbySector SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation3 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 9.EmployeeVehiclesbySector SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation3 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.6 MedicalFacilitiesDatawereprovidedbyOrangeCountyandtheindividualmunicipalitieswithintheEPZforeachofthemedicalfacilitieswithintheEPZ.TableE 3inAppendixEsummarizesthedatagathered.Section8detailstheevacuationofmedicalfacilitiesandtheirpatients.Thenumberandtypeofevacuatingvehiclesthatneedtobeprovideddependonthepatients'stateofhealth.Itisestimatedthatbusescantransportupto30ambulatoryand3wheelchairboundpeopleandambulances,upto2people.3.7 TotalDemandinAdditiontoPermanentPopulationVehicleswillbetravelingthroughtheEPZ(external externaltrips)atthetimeofanaccident.AftertheAdvisorytoEvacuateisannounced,thesethrough travelerswillalsoevacuate.ThesethroughvehiclesareassumedtotravelonthemajorroutestraversingtheEPZ-I 5,andtheSanJoaquinHillsTransportationCorridor.ItisassumedthatthistrafficwillcontinuetoentertheEPZduringthefirst30minutesfollowingtheAdvisorytoEvacuate.AverageAnnualDailyTraffic(AADT)datawasobtainedfromFederalHighwayAdministrationtoestimatethenumberofvehiclesperhourontheaforementionedroutes.TheAADTwasmultipliedbytheKFactor,whichistheproportionoftheAAD Tonaroadwaysegmentorlinkduringthedesignhour,resultinginthedesignhourvolume(DHV).Thedesignhourisusuallythe30 thhighesthourlytrafficvolumeoftheyear,measuredinvehiclesperhour(vph).TheDHVisthenmultipliedbytheD Factor,whichistheproportionoftheDHVoccurringinthepeakdirectionoftravel(alsoknownasthedirectionalsplit).Theresultingvaluesarethedirectionaldesignhourlyvolumes(DDHV),an darepresentedinTable3 6,foreachoftheroutesconsidered.TheDDHVisthenmultipliedby0.5hours(accesscontrolpoints-ACP-areassumedtobeactivatedat30minutesaftertheadvisorytoevacuate)toestimatethetotalnumberofexternalvehiclesloadedontheanalysisnetwork.Asindicated,th ereare5,536vehiclesenteringtheEPZasexternal externaltripspriortotheactivationoftheACPandthediversionofthistraffic.Thisnumberisreducedby60%foreveningscenarios(Scenarios5and10asdiscussedinSection6.3.8 SpecialEventOnespecialevent(Scenario11)isconsideredfortheETEstudy-4 thofJulyWeekend.DatawereobtainedfromlocalemergencymanagementofficialsinthemunicipalitiesofSanClemente,DanaPoint,andSanJuanCapistranoregardingthenumberoftransientsandlocationsofmajorfestivitieswithintheirrespectivecities.SanClementehasaninfluxofapproximately25,000transients,DanaPointhasaninfluxof150, 000transientsandSanJuanCapistranohasaninfluxof12,000transients.Toavoiddoublecounting,transientsalreadyconsideredatotherfacilitieswithinSanClementeandDanaPointwereremovedfromthetotalspecialeventtransients.ThosetransientsinSanJuanCapistranoarespecificallyattheSportsParkonCaminoDelAvion.Itwasassumedthatfamiliestravelinpersonalvehicl esasahouseholdunit;therefore,theaveragehouseholdsizeof2.63wasusedasavehicleoccupancy SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation3 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1factor.Atotalof167,630transientsand64,239transientvehicleswereincorporatedatvariousparkinglocationsthroughouttheEPZduringthe4 thofJulyweekend.Thespecialeventvehicletripsweregeneratedutilizingthesamemobilizationdistributionsfortransients.Publictransportationisnotprovidedforthiseventandwasnotconsideredinthespecialeventanalysis.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation3 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 6.SONGSEPZExternalTrafficUpstreamNodeDownstreamNodeRoadNameDirectionHPMS 1AADTK Factor 2D Factor 2HourlyVolumeExternal Traffic80031735I 5Northbound135,0000.0820.55,5352,76880871734I 5Southbound135,0000.0820.252,7681,38480571057SanJoaquinHillsTransportationCorridorSouthbound135,0000.0820.252,7681,384TOTAL: 5,5361 HighwayPerformanceMonitoringSystem(HPMS),FederalHighwayAdministration(FHWA),Washington,D.C.,20122 HCM2010 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation3 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.9 SummaryofDemandAsummaryofpopulationandvehicledemandisprovidedinTable3 7andTable3 8,respectively.Thissummaryincludesallpopulationgroupsdescribedinthissection.Additionalpopulationgroups-transit dependent,specialfacilityandschoolpopulation-aredescribedingreaterdetailinSection8.Atotalof259,308peopleand131,530vehiclesareconsideredinthisstudy.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation3 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 7.SummaryofPopulationDemandPAZResidentsTransientsTransitDependentEmployees SpecialFacilitiesSchools ShadowPopulationExternal TrafficTotalSeasonalResidents OtherVisitors14,53306,4571331,85101,0620014,03620000000000311,99700353513000012,863468,8791,0434,8642,0289,97133711,4090098,531567,9481,07116,3252,0008,93957614,81000111,669Shadow000000022,209022,209Total153,3572,11427,6464,51421,27491327,28122,2090259,308NOTE:ShadowPopulationhasbeenreducedto20%.RefertoFigure2 1foradditionalinformation.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation3 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 8.SummaryofVehicleDemandPAZResidentsTransientsTransitDependentEmployees SpecialFacilitiesSchoolsShadowPopulationExternal TrafficTotalSeasonalResidentsOtherVisitors12,44701,83681,683034006,0082000000000036,477002446600006,967437,1925411,8781429,062964200049,331536,6825565,5151288,1221375580051,698Shadow000000011,9905,53617,526Total82,7981,0979,22930219,3332331,01211,9905,536131,530NOTE:Busesrepresentedastwopassengervehicles.RefertoSection8foradditionalinformation.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation4 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.14 ESTIMATIONOFHIGHWAYCAPACITYTheabilityoftheroadnetworktoservicevehicledemandisamajorfactorindetermininghowrapidlyanevacuationcanbecompleted.Thecapacityofaroadisdefinedasthemaximumhourlyrateatwhichpersonsorvehiclescanreasonablybeexpectedtotraverseapointoruniformsectionofalaneofroad wayduringagiventimeperiodunderprevailingroadway,trafficandcontrolconditions,asstatedinthe2010HighwayCapacityManual(HCM2010).Indiscussingcapacity,differentoperatingconditionshavebeenassignedalphabeticaldesignations,AthroughF,toreflecttherangeoftrafficoperationalcharacteristics.Thesedesignationshavebeentermed"LevelsofService"(LOS).Forexample,LOSAconnotesfree flowandhigh speedoperatingconditions;LOSFrepresentsaforcedflowcondition.LOSEdescribestrafficoperatingatornearcapacity.Anotherconcept,closelyassociatedwithcapacity,is"ServiceVolume"(SV).Servicevolumeisdefinedas"Themaximu mhourlyrateatwhichvehicles,bicyclesorpersonsreasonablycanbeexpectedtotraverseapointoruniformsectionofaroadwayduringanhourunderspecificassumedconditionswhilemaintainingadesignatedlevelofservice."Thisdefinitionissimilartothatforcapacity.Themajordistinctionisthatva luesofSVvaryfromoneLOStoanother,whilecapacityistheservicevolumeattheupperboundofLOSE,only.ThisdistinctionisillustratedinExhibit11 17oftheHCM2010.Asindicatedthere,theSVvarieswithFreeFlowSpeed(FFS),andLOS.TheSViscalculatedbytheDYNEVIIsimulationmodel,basedonthespecifiedlinkattributes,FFS,capacity,controldeviceandtrafficdemand.Otherfactorsalsoinfluencecapacity.Theseinclude,butarenotlimitedto: Lanewidth Shoulderwidth Pavementcondition Horizontalandverticalalignment(curvatureandgrade) Percenttrucktraffic Controldevice(andtiming,ifitisasignal) Weatherconditions(rain,fog,windspeed)Thesefactorsareconsideredduringtheroadsurveyandinthecapacityestimationprocess;somefactorshavegreaterinfluenceoncapacitythanothers.Forexample,laneandshoulderwidthhaveonlyalimitedinfluenceonBaseFreeFlowSpeed(BFFS 1)accordingtoExhibit15 7oftheHCM.Consequently,laneandshoulderwidthsatthenarrowestpointswereobservedduringtheroadsurveyandtheseobservationswererecorded,butnodetailedmeasurementsoflaneorshoulderwidthweretaken.HorizontalandverticalalignmentcaninfluencebothFFSandcapacity.TheestimatedFFSweremeasuredusingth esurveyvehicle'sspeedometerandobservinglocaltraffic,underfreeflowconditions.Capacityisestimatedfromtheproceduresof1AveryroughestimateofBFFSmightbetakenasthepostedspeedlimitplus10mph(HCM2010Page1515)

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation4 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1the2010HCM.Forexample,HCMExhibit7 1(b)showsthesensitivityofServiceVolumeattheupperboundofLOSDtograde(capacityistheServiceVolumeattheupperboundofLOSE).AsdiscussedinSection2.3,itisnecessarytoadjustcapacityfigurestorepresenttheprevailingconditionsduringinclementweather.Basedonlimitedempiricaldata,weatherconditionssuchasrainreducethevaluesoffreespeedandofhighwaycapacitybyapproximately10percent.Overthelastdecadenewstudieshavebeenmadeontheeffectsofrainontrafficcapacity.Thesestudiesindicatearangeofeffectsbetween5and20percentdependingonwindspeedandprecipitationrates.AsindicatedinSection2.3,weemployareductioninfreespeedandinhighwaycapacityof10percentforrain.Sincecongestionarisingfromevacuationmaybesignificant,estimatesofroadwaycapacitymustbedeterminedwithgreatcare.Becauseofitsimportance,abriefdiscussionofthemajorfactorsthatinfluencehighwaycapacityispresentedinthissection.Ruralhighwaysgenerallyconsistof:(1)oneormoreuniformsectionswithlimitedaccess(driveways,parkingareas)characterizedby"uninterrupted"flow;and(2)approachestoat gradeintersectionswhereflowca nbe"interrupted"byacontroldeviceorbyturningorcrossingtrafficattheintersection.Duetothesedifferences,separateestimatesofcapacitymustbemadeforeachsection.Often,theapproachtotheintersectioniswidenedbytheadditionofoneormorelanes(turnpocketsorturnbays),tocompensateforthelowercapacityoftheapproachduetothefactorstherethatcaninterrupttheflowoftraffic.TheseadditionallanesarerecordedduringthefieldsurveyandlaterenteredasinputtotheDYNEVIIsystem.4.1 CapacityEstimationsonApproachestoIntersectionsAt gradeintersectionsareapttobe comethefirstbottlenecklocationsunderlocalheavytrafficvolumeconditions.Thischaracteristicreflectstheneedtoallocateaccesstimetotherespectivecompetingtrafficstreamsbyexertingsomeformofcontrol.Duringevacuation,controlatcriticalintersectionswilloftenbeprovidedbytrafficcontrolpersonnelassignedforthatpurpose,whosedirectionsmaysupersedetrafficcontroldevices.AdditionalTCPsarerecommended;seeSection9andAppendixGforadditionaldetails.Theper lanecapacityofanapproachtoasignalizedintersectioncanbeexpressed(simplistically)inthefollowingform:where:Qcap,m=Capacityofasinglelaneoftrafficonanapproach,whichexecutesmovement,m ,uponenteringtheintersection;vehiclesperhour(vph)h m=Meanqueuedischargeheadwayofvehiclesonthislanethatareexecuting SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation4 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1movement,m;secondspervehicleG=MeandurationofGREENtimeservicingvehiclesthatareexecutingmovement,m ,foreachsignalcycle;secondsL=Mean"losttime"foreachsignalphaseservicingmovement,m;secondsC=Durationofeachsignalcycle;secondsP m=ProportionofGREENtimeallocatedforvehiclesexecutingmovement,m ,fromthislane.Thisvalueisspecifiedaspartofthecontroltreatment.m=Themovementexecutedbyvehiclesaftertheyentertheintersection:through,left turn,right turn,anddiagonal.Theturn movement specificmeandischargeheadwayh m ,dependsinacomplexwayuponmanyfactors:roadwaygeometrics,turnpercentages,theextentofconflictingtrafficstreams,thecontroltreatment,andothers.Aprimaryfactoristhevalueof"saturationqueuedischargeheadway",h sat ,whichappliestothroughvehiclesthatarenotimpededbyotherconflictingtrafficstreams.Thisvalue,itself,dependsuponmanyfactorsincludingmotoristbehavior.Formally,wecanwrite,where:h sat=Saturationdischargeheadwayforthroughvehicles;secondspervehicleF 1 ,F 2=Thevariousknownfactorsinfluencingh mf m ()=Complexfunctionrelatingh mtotheknown(orestimated)valuesofh sat ,F 1 ,F 2 ,-Theestimationofh mforspecifiedvaluesofh sat ,F 1 ,F 2 ,...isundertakenwithintheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelbyamathematicalmodel 2.Theresultingvaluesforh malwayssatisfythecondition:

Thatis,theturn movement specificdischargeheadwaysarealwaysgreaterthan,orequaltothesaturationdischargeheadwayforthroughvehicles.Theseheadways(oritsinverse2 Lieberman,E.,"DeterminingLateralDeploymentofTrafficonanApproachtoanIntersection",McShane,W.&Lieberman,E.,"ServiceRatesofMixedTrafficonthefarLeftLaneofanApproach".BothpapersappearinTransportationResearchRecord772,1980.Lieberman,E.,Xin,W.,"MacroscopicTrafficModelingForLarge ScaleEvacuationPlanning",presentedattheTRB2012AnnualMeeting,January22 26,2012 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation4 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1equivalent,"saturationflowrate"),maybedeterminedbyobservationorusingtheproceduresoftheHCM2010.TheabovediscussionisnecessarilybriefgiventhescopeofthisETEreportandthecomplexityofthesubjectofintersectioncapacity.Infact,Chapters18,19and20intheHCM2010addressthistopic.Thefactors,F 1 ,F 2 ,-,influencingsaturationflowrateareidentifiedinequation(18 5)oftheHCM2010.ThetrafficsignalswithintheEPZandShadowRegionaremodeledusingrepresentativephasingplansandphasedurationsobtainedaspartofthefielddatacollection.Trafficresponsivesignalinstallationsallowtheproportionofgreentimeallocated(P m)foreachapproachtoeachintersectiontobedeterminedbytheexpectedtrafficvolumesoneachapproachduringevacuationcircumstances.Theamountofgreentime(G)allocatedissubjecttomaximumandminimumphasedurationconstraints;2secondsofyellowtimeareindicatedforeachsignalphaseand1secondofall redtimeisassignedbetweensignalphases,typically.Ifasignalispre timed,theyellowandall redtimesobservedduringtheroadsurveyareused.Alosttime(L)of2.0secondsisusedforeachsignalphaseintheanalysis.4.2 CapacityEstimationalongSectionsofHighwayThecapacit yofhighwaysectionsasdistinctfromapproachestointersectionsisafunctionofroadwaygeometrics,trafficcomposition(e.g.percentheavytrucksandbusesinthetrafficstream)and,ofcourse,motoristbehavior.Thereisafundamentalrelationshipwhichrelatesservicevolume(i.e.thenumberofvehiclesservicedwithinauniformhighwaysectioninagiventimeperiod)totrafficdensity.ThetopcurveinFigure4 1illustratesthisrelationship.Asindicated,therearetw oflowregimes:(1)FreeFlow(leftsideofcurve);and(2)ForcedFlow(rightside).IntheFreeFlowregime,thetrafficdemandisfullyserviced;theservicevolumeincreasesasdemandvolumeanddensityincrease,untiltheservicevolumeattainsit smaximumvalue,whichisthecapacityofthehighwaysection.Astrafficdemandandtheresultinghighwaydensityincreasebeyondthis"critical"value,therateatwhichtrafficcanbeserviced(i.e.theservicevolume)canactuallydeclinebelowcapacity("capacitydrop").Therefore,inordertorealisticallyrepresenttrafficperformanceduringcongestedconditions(i.e.whendemandexceedscapacity),itisnecessarytoestimatetheservicevolume,V F ,undercongestedconditions.ThevalueofV Fcanbeexpressedas:where:R=Reductionfactorwhichislessthanunity SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation4 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1WehaveemployedavalueofR=0.90.Theadvisabilityofsuchacapacityreductionfactorisbaseduponempiricalstudiesthatidentifiedafall offintheserviceflowratewhencongestionoccursat"bottlenecks"or"chokepoints"onafreewaysystem.ZhangandLevinson 3describearesearchprogramthatcollecteddatafromacomputer basedsurveillancesystem(loopdetectors)installedontheInterstateHighwaySystem,at27activebottlenecksinthetwincitiesmetroareainMinnesotaovera7 weekperiod.Whenflowbreakdownoccurs,queuesareformedwhichdischargeatlowerflowratesthanthemaximumcapacitypriortoobservedbreakdown.Thesequeuedischargeflow(QDF)ratesvaryfromonelocationtothenextandalsovarybydayofweekandtimeofdaybaseduponlocalcircumstances.ThecitedreferencepresentsameanQDFof2,016passengercarsperhourperlane(pcphpl).Thisfigurecompar eswiththenominalcapacityestimateof2,250pcphplestimatedfortheETEandindicatedinAppendixKforfreewaylinks.Theratioofthesetwonumbersis0.896whichtranslatesintoacapacityreductionfactorof0.90.Sincetheprincipalobjectiveofevacuationtimeestimateanalysesistodevelopa"realistic"estimateofevacuationtimes,useoftherepresentativevalueforthiscapacityreductionfactor(R=0.90)isjustified.Thisfactorisappliedonlywhenflowbreaksdown,asdeterminedbythesimulationmodel.Ruralroads,likefreeways,areclassifiedas"uninterruptedflow"facilities.(Thisisincontrastwithurbanstreetsystemswhichhavecloselyspacedsignalizedinters ectionsandareclassifiedas"interruptedflow"facilities.)Assuch,trafficflowalongruralroadsissubjecttothesameeffectsasfreewaysintheeventtrafficdemandexceedsthenominalcapacity,resultinginqueuingandlowerQDFrates.Asapracticalmatter,ruralroadsrarelybreakdownatlocationsawayfromintersections.Anybreakdownsonruralroadsaregenerallyexperiencedatintersectionswhereothermodellogicapplies,oratlanedropswhichreducecapacitythere.Therefore,theapplicationofafactorof0.90isappropriateonruralroads,butrarely,ifever,activated.Theestimatedvalueofcapacit yisbasedprimarilyuponthetypeoffacilityandonroadwaygeometrics.Sectionsofroadwaywithadversegeometricsarecharacterizedbylowerfree flowspeedsandlanecapacity.Exhibit15 30intheHighwayCapacityManualwasreferencedtoestimatesaturationflowrates.Theimpactofnarrowlanesandshould ersonfree flowspeedandoncapacityisnotmaterial,particularlywhenflowispredominantlyinonedirectionasisthecaseduringanevacuation.Theprocedureusedherewastoestimate"section"capacity,V E ,basedonobservationsmadetravelingovereachsectionoftheevacuationnetwork,basedonthepostedspeedlimitsandtravelbehaviorofothermotoristsandbyreferencetothe2010HCM.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodeldeterminesforeachhighwaysection,representedasanetworklink,whetheritscapacitywouldbelimitedbythe"section specific"servicevolume,V E ,orbytheintersection specificcapacity.Foreachlink,themodelselectsthelowervalueofcapacity.3 LeiZhangandDavidLevinson,"SomePropertiesofFlowsatFreewayBottlenecks,"TransportationResearchRecord1883,2004.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation4 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.14.3 ApplicationtotheSONGSStudyAreaAspartofthedevelopmentofthelink nodeanalysisnetworkforthestudyarea,anestimateofroadwaycapacityisrequired.Thesourcematerialforthecapacityestimatespresentedhereiniscontainedin:2010HighwayCapacityManual(HCM)TransportationResearchBoardNationalResearchCouncilWashington,D.C.Thehighwaysysteminthestudyareaconsistsprimarilyofthreecategoriesofroadsand,ofcourse,intersections: Two Laneroads:Local,State Multi LaneHighways(at grade) FreewaysEachoftheseclassificationswillbediscussed.4.3.1 Two LaneRoadsRef:HCMChapter15TwolaneroadscomprisethemajorityofhighwayswithintheEPZ.Theperlanecapacityofatwo lanehighwayisestimatedat1700passengercarsperhour(pc/h).Thisestimateisessentiallyindependentofthedirectionaldistributionoftrafficvolumeexceptthat,forextendeddistances,thetwo waycapacitywillnotexceed3200pc/h.Th eHCMproceduresthenestimateLevelofService(LOS)andAverageTravelSpeed.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelacceptsthespecifiedvalueofcapacityasinputandcomputesaveragespeedbasedonthetime varyingdemand:capacityrelations.Basedonthefieldsurveyandonexpectedtrafficoperationsassociatedwithevacuationscenarios: Mostsectionsoftwo laneroadswithintheEPZareclassifiedas"Clas sI",with"levelterrain";someare"rollingterrain". "ClassII"highwaysaremostlythosewithinurbanandsuburbancenters.4.3.2 Multi LaneHighwayRef:HCMChapter14Exhibit14 2oftheHCM2010presentsasetofcurvesthatindicateaper lanecapacityrangingfromapproximately1900to2200pc/h,forfree speedsof45to60mph,respectively.Basedonobservation,themulti lanehighwaysoutsideofurbanareaswithintheEPZservicetrafficwithfree speedsinthisrang e.Theactualtime varyingspeedscomputedbythesimulationmodelreflectthedemand:capacityrelationshipandtheimpactofcontrolatintersections.A SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation4 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1conservativeestimateofper lanecapacityof1900pc/hisadoptedforthisstudyformulti lanehighwaysoutsideofurbanareas,asshowninAppendixK.4.3.3 FreewaysRef:HCMChapters10,11,12,13Chapter10oftheHCM2010describesaprocedureforintegratingtheresultsobtainedinChapters11,12and13,whichcomputecapacityandLOSforfreewa ycomponents.Chapter10alsopresentsadiscussionofsimulationmodels.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelautomaticallyperformsthisintegrationprocess.Chapter11oftheHCM2010presentsproceduresforestimatingcapacityandLOSfor"BasicFreewaySegments".Exhibit11 17oftheHCM2010presentscapacit yvs.freespeedestimates,whichareprovidedbelow.FreeSpeed(mph):55606570+Per LaneCapacity(pc/h):2250230023502400Theinputstothesimulationmodelarehighwaygeometrics,free speedsandcapacitybasedonfieldobservations.Thesimulationlogiccalculatesactualtime varyingspeedsbasedondemand:capacityrelationships.Aconservativeestimateofper lanecapacityof2250pc/hisadoptedforthisstudyforfreeways,asshowninAppendixK.Chapter12oftheHCM2010presentsproceduresforestimatingcapa city,speed,densityandLOSforfreewayweavingsections.Thesimulationmodelcontainslogicthatrelatesspeedtodemandvolume:capacityratio.ThevalueofcapacityobtainedfromthecomputationalproceduresdetailedinChapter12dependsonthe"Type"andgeometricsoftheweavingsegmentan donthe"VolumeRatio"(ratioofweavingvolumetototalvolume).Chapter13oftheHCM2010presentsproceduresforestimatingcapacitiesoframpsandof"merge"areas.Therearethreesignificantfactorstothedeterminationofcapacityofarampfreewayjunction:Thecapacityofthefreewayimmediatelydownstreamofanon ramporimmediatelyupstreamofanoff ramp;thecapacityoftheramproadway;andthemaximumflowrateenteringtherampinfluencearea.Inmostcases,thefreewaycapacityisthecontrollingfactor.ValuesofthismergeareacapacityarepresentedinExhibit13 8oftheHCM2010,anddependonthenumberoffreewaylanesandonthefreewayfreespeed.RampcapacityispresentedinExhibit13 10andisafunctionoftherampfreeflowspeed.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodellogicsimulatesthemergingoperationsoftherampandfreewaytrafficinaccordwiththeproceduresinCh apter13oftheHCM2010.Ifcongestionresultsfromanexcessofdemandrelativetocapacity,thenthemodelallocatesserviceappropriatelytothetwoenteringtrafficstreamsandproducesLOSFconditions(TheHCMdoesnotaddressLOSFexplicitly).

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation4 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.14.3.4 IntersectionsRef:HCMChapters18,19,20,21ProceduresforestimatingcapacityandLOSforapproachestointersectionsarepresentedinChapter18(signalizedintersections),Chapters19,20(un signalizedintersections)andChapter21(roundabouts).Thecomplexityofthesecomputationsisindicatedbytheaggregatelengthofthesechapters.TheDYNEVIIsimulationlogicislikewisecomplex.Thesimulationmodelexplicitlymodelsintersections:Stop/yieldcontrolledintersections(both2 wayandall way)andtrafficsignalcontrolledintersections.Whereintersectionsarecontrolledbyfixedtimecontrollers,trafficsignaltimingsaresettoreflectaverage(non evacuation)trafficconditions.Actuatedtrafficsignalsettingsrespondtothetime varyingdemandsofevacuationtraffictoadjusttherelativecapacitiesofthecompetingintersect ionapproaches.Themodelisalsocapableofmodelingthepresenceofmannedtrafficcontrol.Atspecificlocationswhereitisadvisableorwhereexistingplanscallforoverridingexistingtrafficcontroltoimplementmannedcontrol,themodelwilluseactuat edsignaltimingsthatreflectthepresenceoftrafficguides.Atlocationswhereaspecialtrafficcontrolstrategy(continuousleft turns,contra flowlanes)isused,thestrategyismodeledexplicitly.Whereapplicable,thelocationandtypeoftrafficcontrolfornodesintheevacuationnetworkarenotedinAppendixK.ThecharacteristicsofthetenhighestvolumesignalizedintersectionsaredetailedinAppendixJ.4.4 SimulationandCapacityEstimationChapter6oftheHCMisentitled,"HCMandAlternativeAnalysisTools."Thechapterdiscussestheuseofalternativetoolssuchassimulationmodelingtoevaluatetheoperationalperformanceofhighwaynetworks.AmongthereasonscitedinChap ter6toconsiderusingsimulationasanalternativeanalysistoolis:"ThesystemunderstudyinvolvesagroupofdifferentfacilitiesortravelmodeswithmutualinteractionsinvokingseveralproceduralchaptersoftheHCM.Alternativetoolsareabletoanalyzethesefacilitiesasasinglesystem."ThisstatementsuccinctlydescribestheanalysesrequiredtodeterminetrafficoperationsacrossanareaencompassinganEPZoperatingunderevacuationconditions.Themodelutilizedforthisstudy,DYNEVII,isfurtherdescribedinAppendixC.Itisessentialtorecognizethatsimulationmodelsdonotreplicat ethemethodologyandproceduresoftheHCM-theyreplacetheseproceduresbydescribingthecomplexinteractionsoftrafficflowandcomputingMeasuresofEffectiveness(MOE)detailingtheoperationalperformanceoftrafficovertimeandbylocation.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelincludessomeHCM2010proceduresonlyforthepurposeofestimatingcapacity.Allsimulationmodelsmustbecalibratedproperlywithfieldobservationsthatquantifytheperformanceparametersapplicabletotheanalysisnetwork.Twoofthemostimportantof SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation4 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1theseare:(1)Freeflowspeed(FFS);and(2)saturationheadway,h sat.Thefirstoftheseisestimatedbydirectobservationduringtheroadsurvey;thesecondisestimatedusingtheconceptsoftheHCM2010,asdescribedearlier.TheseparametersarelistedinAppendixK,foreachnetworklink.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation4 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure4 1.FundamentalDiagrams SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation5 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15 ESTIMATIONOFTRIPGENERATIONTIMEFederalGovernmentguidelines(seeNUREGCR 7002)specifythattheplannerestimatethedistributionsofelapsedtimesassociatedwithmobilizationactivitiesundertakenbythepublictopreparefortheevacuationtrip.Theelapsedtimeassociatedwitheachactivityisrepresentedasastatisticaldistributionreflectingdifferencesbetweenmembersofthepublic.Thequantificationoftheseactivity baseddistributionsrelieslargelyontheresultsofthetelephonesurvey.WedefinethesumofthesedistributionsofelapsedtimesastheTripGenerationTimeDistribution.5.1 BackgroundIngeneral,anaccidentatanuclearpowerplantischaracterizedbythefollowingEmergencyClassificationLevels(seeAppendix1ofNUREG0654fordetails):1. UnusualEvent2. Alert3. SiteAreaEmergency4. GeneralEmergencyAteachlevel,theFederalguidelinesspecifyasetofActionstobeundertakenbyth eLicensee,andbyStateandLocaloffsiteauthorities.AsaPlanningBasis,wewilladoptaconservativeposture,inaccordancewithSection1.2ofNUREG/CR 7002,thatarapidlyescalatingaccidentwillbeconsideredincalculatingtheTripGenerationTime.Wewillassume:1. TheAdvisorytoEvacuatewillbeannouncedcoincidentwiththesirennotification.2. Mobilizationofthegeneralpopulationwillcommencewithin15minutesafterthesirennotification.3. ETEaremeasuredrelativetotheAdvisorytoEvacuate.Weemphasizethattheadoptionofthisplanningbasisisnotarepresentationthattheseeventswilloccurwithintheindicatedtimeframe.Rather,theseassumptionsarenecessaryinorderto:1. EstablishatemporalframeworkforestimatingtheTripGenerationdistributionintheformatrecommendedinSection2.13ofNUREG/CR 6863.2. Identifytemporalpointsofreferencethatuniquelydefine"ClearTime"andETE.Itislikelythatalongertimewillel apsebetweenthevariousclassesofanemergency.Forexample,supposeonehourelapsesfromthesirenalerttotheAdvisorytoEvacuate.Inthiscase,itisreasonabletoexpectsomedegreeofspontaneousevacuationbythepublicduringthisone hourperiod.Asaresult,thepopulationwithintheEPZwillbelowerwhenth eAdvisorytoEvacuateisannounced,thanatthetimeofthesirenalert.Inaddition,manywillengageinpreparationactivitiestoevacuate,inanticipationthatanAdvisorywillbebroadcast.Thus,thetimeneededtocompletethemobilizationactivitiesandthenumberofpeopleremainingtoevacuatetheEPZaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate,willbothbesomewhatlessthan SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation5 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1theestimatespresentedinthisreport.Consequently,theETEpresentedinthisreportarehigherthantheactualevacuationtime,ifthishypotheticalsituationweretotakeplace.Thenotificationprocessconsistsoftwoevents:1. TransmittinginformationusingthealertnotificationsystemsavailablewithintheEPZ(e.g.sirens,tonealerts,EASbroadcasts,loudspeakers).2. Receivingandcorrectlyinterpretingtheinformationthatistransmitted.ThepopulationwithintheEPZisdispersedoveranareaofapproximately180squaremilesandisengagedinawidevarietyofactivities.Itmustbeanticipatedthatsometimewillelapsebetweenthetransmissionandreceiptoftheinformationadvisingthepublicofanaccident.Theamountofelapsedtimewillvaryfromonei ndividualtothenextdependingonwherethatpersonis,whatthatpersonisdoing,andrelatedfactors.Furthermore,somepersonswhowillbedirectlyinvolvedwiththeevacuationprocessmaybeoutsidetheEPZatthetimetheemergencyisdeclared.Thesepeoplemaybecommuters,shoppersandothertr avelerswhoresidewithintheEPZandwhowillreturntojointheotherhouseholdmembersuponreceivingnotificationofanemergency.AsindicatedinSection2.13ofNUREG/CR 6863,theestimatedelapsedtimesforthereceiptofnotificationcanbeexpressedasadistributionreflectingthedifferentnotificationtimesfordifferentpeoplewithin,andoutside,theEPZ.Byusingtimedistributions,itisalsopossibletodistinguishbetweendifferentpopulationgroupsanddifferentday of weekandtime of dayscenarios,sothataccurateETEmaybecomputed.Forexample,peopleathomeoratworkwithintheEPZwillbenotifiedbysiren,and/ortonealertand/orradio(ifavailable).ThosewelloutsidetheEPZwillbenotifiedbyteleph one,radio,TVandword of mouth,withpotentiallylongertimelags.Furthermore,thespatialdistributionoftheEPZpopulationwilldifferwithtimeofdayfamilieswillbeunitedintheevenings,butdispersedduringtheday.Inthisrespect,weekendswilldifferfromweekdays.AsindicatedinSection4.1ofNUREG/CR 7002,theinformationrequiredtocomputetripgenerationtimesistypicallyobtainedfromatelephonesurveyofEPZresidents.SuchasurveywasconductedinsupportofthisETEstudy.AppendixFpresentsthesurveysamplingplan,surveyinstrument,andrawsurveyresults.Itisimportanttonotethattheshapeanddurationoftheevacuationtripmobilizationdistributionisimportantatsiteswheretrafficcongestionisnotexpectedtocausetheevacuationtimeestimatetoextendintimewellbeyondthetripgenerationperiod.Theremainingdiscussionwillfocusonth eapplicationofthetripgenerationdataobtainedfromthetelephonesurveytothedevelopmentoftheETEdocumentedinthisreport.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation5 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15.2 FundamentalConsiderationsTheenvironmentleadinguptothetimethatpeoplebegintheirevacuationtripsconsistsofasequenceofeventsandactivities.Eachevent(otherthanthefirst)occursataninstantintimeandistheoutcomeofanactivity.Activitiesareundertakenoveraperiodoftime.Activitiesmaybein"series"(i.e.toundertakeanactivityimpliesthecompletionofallprecedingevents)ormaybeinparallel(twoormoreactivitiesmaytakeplaceoverthesameperiodoftime).Activitiesconductedinseriesarefunctionallydependentonthecom pletionofprioractivities;activitiesconductedinparallelarefunctionallyindependentofoneanother.Therelevanteventsassociatedwiththepublic'spreparationforevacuationare:EventNumberEventDescription1Notification2AwarenessofSituation3DepartWork4ArriveHome5DepartonEvacuationTripAssociatedwitheachsequenceofeventsareoneormoreactivities,asoutlinedbelow:Table5 1.EventSequenceforEvacuationActivitiesEventSequenceActivityDistribution12ReceiveNotification 123PreparetoLeaveWork 22,34TravelHome 32,45PreparetoLeavetoEvacuate 4 TheserelationshipsareshowngraphicallyinFigure5 1. AnEventisa'state'thatexistsatapointintime(e.g.,departwork,arrivehome) AnActivityisa'process'thattakesplaceoversomeelapsedtime(e.g.,preparetoleavework,travelhome)Assuch,acompletedActivitychangesthe'state'ofanindividual(e.g.theactivity,'travelhome'changesthestatefrom'departwork'to'arrivehome').Therefore,anActivitycanbedescribedasan'EventSequence';theelapsedtimestoperformaneventsequencevaryfromonepersontothenextandaredescribedasstatisticaldistributionsonthefollowingpages.AnemployeewholivesoutsidetheEPZwillfollowsequence(c)ofFigure5 1.AhouseholdwithintheEPZthathasoneormorecommutersatwork,andwillawaittheirreturnbefore SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation5 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1beginningtheevacuationtripwillfollowthefirstsequenceofFigure5 1(a).AhouseholdwithintheEPZthathasnocommutersatwork,orthatwillnotawaitthereturnofanycommuters,willfollowthesecondsequenceofFigure5 1(a),regardlessofdayofweekortimeofday.Householdswithnocommutersonweek endsorintheevening/night time,willfollowtheapplicablesequenceinFigure5 1(b).TransientswillalwaysfollowoneofthesequencesofFigure5 1(b).Sometransientsawayfromtheirresidencecouldelecttoevacuateimmediatelywithoutreturningtotheresidence,asindicatedinthesecondsequence.ItisseenfromFigure5 1,thattheTripGeneratio ntime(i.e.thetotalelapsedtimefromEvent1toEvent5)dependsonthescenarioandwillvaryfromonehouseholdtothenext.Furthermore,Event5depends,inacomplicatedway,onthetimedistributionsofallactivitiesprec edingthatevent.Thatis,toestimatethetimedistributionofEvent5,wemustobtainestimatesofthetimedistributionsofallprecedingevents.Forthisstudy,weadopttheconservativeposturethatallactivitieswilloccurinsequence.Insomecases,assumingcertaineventsoccu rstrictlysequential(forinstance,commuterreturninghomebeforebeginningpreparationtoleave)canresultinratherconservative(thatis,longer)estimatesofmobilizationtimes.Itisreasonabletoexpectthatatleastsomepartsoftheseeventswilloverlapformanyhouseholds,butthatassumptionisnotmadeinthisstudy.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation5 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure5 1.EventsandActivitiesPrecedingtheEvacuationTripHouseholds wait for Commuters 1 Residents 12345EVENTS 1. Notification 2. Aware of situation 3. Depart work 4. Arrive home 5. Depart on evacuation trip (a) Accident occurs during midweek, at midday; year round Households without Commuters and households who do not wait for Commuters Residents 125Residents, Transients at Residence 125 (b) Accident occurs during weekend or during the evening 2 (c) Employees who live outside the EPZ Residents, Transients away from Residence 124 5 123,5Return to residence, then evacuate Residents at home; transients evacuate directly 1 Applies for evening and weekends also if commuters are at work.

2 Applies throughout the year for transients.

1. ACTIVITIES 1 2 Receive Notification 2 3 Prepare to Leave Work 2, 3 4 Travel Home 2, 4 5 Prepare to Leave to Evacuate Activities Consume Time SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation5 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15.3 EstimatedTimeDistributionsofActivitiesPrecedingEvent5Thetimedistributionofaneventisobtainedby"summing"thetimedistributionsofallpriorcontributingactivities.(This"summing"processisquitedifferentthananalgebraicsumsinceitisperformedondistributions-notscalarnumbers).TimeDistributionNo.1,NotificationProcess:Activity12Inaccordancewiththe2012FederalEmergencyManagementAgency(FEMA)RadiologicalEmergencyPreparednessProgramManual,100%ofthepopulationisnotifiedwithin45minutes.Itisassumed(basedonthepresenceofsirenswithintheEPZ)that87percentofthosewithintheEPZwillbeawareoftheaccidentwithin30minuteswiththeremaindernotifiedwithinthefollowing15minutes.Thenotificationdistributionisgivenbelow:Table5 2.TimeDistributionforNotifyingthePublicElapsedTime(Minutes)PercentofPopulationNotified0 0%5 7%10 13%15 27%20 47%25 66%30 87%35 92%40 97%45 100%

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation5 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DistributionNo.2,PreparetoLeaveWork:Activity23ItisreasonabletoexpectthatthevastmajorityofbusinessenterpriseswithintheEPZwillelecttoshutdownfollowingnotificationandmostemployeeswouldleaveworkquickly.Commuters,whoworkoutsidetheEPZcould,inallprobability,alsoleavequicklysincefacilitiesoutsidetheEPZwouldremainopenandotherpersonnelwouldremain.Personnelorfarmersre sponsibleforequipment/livestockwouldrequireadditionaltimetosecuretheirfacility.ThedistributionofActivity23showninTable5 3reflectsdataobtainedbythetelephonesurvey.ThisdistributionisplottedinFigure5 2.Table5 3.TimeDistributionforEmployeestoPreparetoLeaveWorkElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentEmployeesLeavingWorkElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentEmployeesLeavingWork00%4594%543%5094%1062%5594%1570%6097%2077%7598%2578%90100%3091%3592%4092%NOTE:Thesurveydatawasnormalizedtodistributethe"Don'tknow"response.Thatis,thesamplewasreducedinsizetoincludeonlythosehouseholdswhorespondedtothisquestion.Theunderlyingassumptionisthatthedistributionofthisactivityforthe"Don'tknow"responders,iftheeventtakesplace,wouldbethesameasthoseresponderswhoprovidedestimates.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation5 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DistributionNo.3,TravelHome:Activity34Thesedataareprovideddirectlybythosehouseholdswhichrespondedtothetelephonesurvey.ThisdistributionisplottedinFigure5 2andlistedinTable5 4.Table5 4.TimeDistributionforCommuterstoTravelHomeElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentReturningHomeElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentReturningHome00%4588%512%5089%1027%5589%1540%6095%2056%7596%2560%9098%3077%10599%3579%120100%4083%NOTE:Thesurveydatawasnormalizedtodistributethe"Don'tknow"response

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation5 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DistributionNo.4,PreparetoLeaveHome:Activity2,45Thesedataareprovideddirectlybythosehouseholdswhichrespondedtothetelephonesurvey.ThisdistributionisplottedinFigure5 2andlistedinTable5 5.Table5 5.TimeDistributionforPopulationtoPreparetoEvacuateElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentReadytoEvacuateElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentReadytoEvacuate00%12094%1520%13597%3063%15097%4570%16597%6083%18098%7589%195100%9090%10590%NOTE:Thesurveydatawasnormalizedtodistributethe"Don'tknow"response SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation5 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure5 2.EvacuationMobilizationActivities0%10%20%30%

40%

50%60%70%

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90%100%0306090120150180

%CompletingActivityElapsedTimefromStartofMobilizationActivity(min)MobilizationActivitiesNotification PreparetoLeaveWork TravelHome PrepareHome SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation5 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15.4 CalculationofTripGenerationTimeDistributionThetimedistributionsforeachofthemobilizationactivitiespresentedhereinmustbecombinedtoformtheappropriateTripGenerationDistributions.Asdiscussedabove,thisstudyassumesthatthestatedeventstakeplaceinsequencesuchthatallprecedingeventsmustbecompletedbeforethecurrenteven tcanoccur.Forexample,ifahouseholdawaitsthereturnofacommuter,thework to hometrip(Activity34)mustprecedeActivity45.Tocalculatethetimedistributionofaneventthatisdependentontwosequentialactivities,itisnecessaryto"sum"thedistributionsassociatedwiththeseprioractivities.Thedistributionsummingalgorithmisappliedrepeatedlyasshowntoformtherequireddistribution.Asanoutcomeofthisprocedure,newtimedistributionsareformed;weassign"letter"designationstotheseintermediatedistributionstodescribetheprocedure.6presentsthesummingproceduretoarriveateachdesignateddistribution.Table5 6.MappingDistributionstoEventsApply"Summing"AlgorithmTo:DistributionObtainedEventDefinedDistributions1and2DistributionAEvent3DistributionsAand3DistributionBEvent4DistributionsBand4DistributionCEvent5Distributions1and4DistributionDEvent5Table5 7presentsadescriptionofeachofthefinaltripgenerationdistributionsachievedafterthesummingprocessiscompleted.Table5 7.DescriptionoftheDistributionsDistributionDescriptionATimedistributionofcommutersdepartingplaceofwork(Event3).AlsoappliestoemployeeswhoworkwithintheEPZwholiveoutside,andtoTransientswithintheEPZ.BTimedistributionofcommutersarrivinghome(Event4).CTimedistributionofresidentswithcommuterswhoreturnhome,leavinghometobegintheevacuationtrip(Event5).DTimedistributionofresidentswithoutcommutersreturninghome,leavinghometobegintheevacuationtrip(Event5).

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation5 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15.4.1 StatisticalOutliersAsalreadymentioned,someportionofthesurveyrespondentsanswer"don'tknow"tosomequestionsorchoosetonotrespondtoaquestion.Themobilizationactivitydistributionsarebaseduponactualresponses.But,itisthenatureofsurveysthatafewnumericresponsesareinconsistentwiththeoverallpatternofresults.Anexamplewouldbeacaseinwhichfor500responses,almostallofthemestimatelessthantwohoursforagivenanswer,but3say"fourhours"and4say"sixormorehours".These"outliers"mustbeconsidered:aretheyvalidresponses,orsoatypicalthattheyshouldbedroppedfromthesample?Inassessingoutliers,therearethreealternatestoconsider:1)Someresponseswithverylongtimesmaybevalid,butreflecttherealitythattherespondentreallyneedstobeclassifiedinadifferentpopulationsubgroup,baseduponspecialneeds;2)Otherresponse smaybeunrealistic(6hourstoreturnhomefromcommutingdistance,or2daystopreparethehomefordeparture);3)Somehighvaluesarerepresentativeandplausible,andonemustnotcutthemaspartoftheconsiderationofoutliers.Theissueofcourseishowtomakethedecisionthatagivenresponseorsetofresponsesaretobeconsidered"outliers"forthecomponentmobilizationactivities,usingamethodthatobjectivelyquantifiestheprocess.Thereisconsiderablestatisticalliteratureontheidentificationandtreatmentofoutlierssinglyoringroups,muchofwhichassumesthedataisnormallydistributedandsomeofwhichusesnonparametricmethodstoavoidthatassumption.Theliteraturecitesthatlimitedworkhasbeendonedirectlyonoutliersinsamplesurveyresponses.Inestablishingtheoverallmobilizationtime/tripgenerationdistributions,thefollowingprinciplesareused:1) Itisrecognizedthattheoveralltripgenerationdistributionsareconservativeestimates,becausetheyassumeahouseholdwilldothemobilizationactivitiessequentially,withnooverlapofactivities;2) Theindividualmobilizationactivities(preparetoleavework,travelhome,preparehome)arereviewedforoutliers,andthentheoveralltripgenerationdistributionsarecreated(seeFigure5 1,Table5 6,Table57);3) Outlierscanbeeliminatedeitherbecausetheresponsereflectsaspecialpopulation(e.g.specialneeds,transitdependent)orlackofrealism,becausethepurposeistoestimatetripgenerationpatternsforpersonalvehicles; SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation5 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.14) Toeliminateoutliers,a) themeanandstandarddeviationofthespecificactivityareestimatedfromtheresponses,b) themedianofthesamedataisestimated,withitspositionrelativetothemeannoted,c) thehistogramofthedataisinspected,andd) allvaluesgreaterthan3.5standarddeviationsareflaggedforattention,takingspecialnoteofwhethertherearegaps(categorieswithzeroentries)inthehistogramdisplay.Ingeneral,onlyflaggedvaluesmorethan4standarddeviationsfromthemeanareallowedtobeconsideredoutliers,withgapsinthehistogramexpected.Whenflaggedvaluesareclassifiedasoutliersanddropped,steps"a"to"d"arerepeated.5) Asapracticalmatter,evenwithoutlierseliminatedbytheabove,theresultanthistogram,viewedasacumulativedistribution,isnotanormaldistribution.AtypicalsituationthatresultsisshownbelowinFigure5 3.6) Inparticular,thecumulativedistributiondiffersfromthenormaldistributionintwokeyaspects,bothveryimportantinloadinganetworktoestimateevacuationtimes:0.0%10.0%20.0%

30.0%

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90.0%100.0%2.5 7.512.5 17.5 22.527.532.537.542.5 47.552.557.5 67.582.597.5112.5 CumulativePercentage(%)CenterofInterval(minutes)CumulativeData CumulativeNormalFigure5 3.ComparisonofDataDistributionandNormalDistribution SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation5 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 Mostoftherealdataistotheleftofthe"normal"curveabove,indicatingthatthenetworkloadsfasterforthefirst80 85%ofthevehicles,potentiallycausingmore(andearlier)congestionthanotherwisemodeled; Thelast10 15%oftherealdata"tailsoff"slowerthanthecomparable"normal"curve,indicatingthatthereissignificanttrafficstillloadingatlatertimes.Becausethesetwofeaturesareimportanttopreserve,itisthehistogramofthedatathatisusedtodescribethemobilizationactivities,nota"normal"curvefittothedata.Onecouldconsiderotherdistributions,butusingtheshapeoftheactualdatacurveisunambiguousandpreservestheseimportantfeatures;7) WiththemobilizationactivitieseachmodeledaccordingtoSteps1 6,includingpreservingthefeaturescitedinStep6,theoverall(ortotal)mobilizationtimesareconstructed.Thisisdonebyusingthedatasetsanddistributionsunderdifferentscenarios(e.g.commuterreturning,nocommuterreturning).Ingeneral,theseareadditive,usingweightingbasedupontheprobabilitydistributionsofeachelement;Figure5 4presentsthecombinedtripgenerationdistributionsdesignatedA,C,andD.Thesedistributionsarepresentedonthesametimescale.(Asdiscussedearlier,theuseofstrictlyadditiveactivitiesisaconservativeapproach,becauseitmakesallactivitiessequential-preparationfordeparturefollowsthereturnofthecommuter.Inpractice,itisreasonablethatsomeoftheseactivitiesaredoneinparallel,atleasttosomeextent-forinstance,preparationtodepartbeginsbyahouseholdmemberathomewhilethecommuterisstillontheroad.)Themobilizationdistributionsthatresultareusedintheirtabular/graphicalformasdirectinputstolatercomputationsthatleadtotheETE.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelisdesignedtoacceptvaryingratesofvehicletripgenerationforeachorigincentroid,expressedintheformofhistograms.Thesehistograms,whichrepresentDistributionsA,C,andD,properlydisplacedwithrespecttooneanother,aretabu latedinTable5 8(DistributionB,ArriveHome,omittedforclarity).Thefinaltimeperiod(15)is600minuteslong.Thistimeperiodisaddedtoallowtheanalysisnetworktoclear,intheeventcongestionpersistsbeyondthetripgenerationperiod.Notethattherearenotripsgeneratedduringthisfinaltimeperiod.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation5 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15.4.2 StagedEvacuationTripGenerationAsdefinedinNUREG/CR 7002,stagedevacuationconsistsofthefollowing:1. PAZcomprisingthe2mileregionareadvisedtoevacuateimmediately2. PAZcomprisingregionsextendingfrom2to5milesdownwindareadvisedtoshelterin placewhilethe2mileregioniscleared3. Asvehiclesevacuatethe2mileregion,shelteredpeoplefrom2to5milesdownwindcontinuepreparationforevacuation4. Thepopulationshelteringinthe2to5mileregionareadvisedtobeginevacuatingwhenapproximately90%ofthoseoriginallywithinthe2mileregionevacuateacrossthe2mileregionboundary5. Non compliancewithth eshelterrecommendationisthesameastheshadowevacuationpercentageof20%Assumptions1. TheEPZpopulationinPAZbeyond5mileswillreactasdoesthepopulationinthe2to5mileregion;thatistheywillfirstshelter,thenevacuateafterthe90 thpercentileETEforthe2mileregion2. ThepopulationintheshadowregionbeyondtheEPZboundary,extendingtoapproximately15milesradiallyfromtheplant,willreactastheydoforallnonstagedevacuationscenarios.Thatis20%ofthesehouseholdswillelecttoevacuatewithnoshelterdelay.3. Thetransientpopulationwillnotbeexpectedtostagetheirevacuationbecauseofthelimitedshelteringoption savailabletopeoplewhomaybeatparks,onabeach,oratothervenues.Also,notifyingthetransientpopulationofastagedevacuationwouldprovedifficult.4. Employeeswillalsobeassumedtoevacuatewithoutfirstsheltering.5. AnadditionalstagedevacuationinwhichPAZ1through4(5 mileregion)evacuates,andPAZ5isadvisedtoshelter in placeuntilthe90 thpercentileETEforthe5 mileregionwasconsideredbasedondiscussionswithSCEandtheoffsiteagencies.Procedure1. Tripgenerationforpopulationgroupsinthe2mileregionwillbeascomputedbasedupontheresultsofthetelephonesurveyandanalysis.2. Tripgenerationforthepopulationsubjecttostagedevacuationwillbeformulatedasfollows:a. Identifythe90 thpercentileevacuationtimeforthePAZcomprisingthetwomileregion.Thisvalue,T Scen*,isobtainedfromsimulationresults.Itwillbecomethetimeatwhichtheregionbeingshelteredwillbetoldtoevacuateforeachscenario.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation5 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1b. Theresultanttripgenerationcurvesforstagingarethenformedasfollows:i. Thenonsheltertripgenerationcurveisfolloweduntilamaximumof20%ofthetotaltripsaregenerated(toaccountforshelternon compliance).ii. NoadditionaltripsaregenerateduntiltimeT Scen*iii. FollowingtimeT Scen*,thebalanceoftripsaregenerated:1. bysteppingupandthenfollowingthenon sheltertripgenerationcurve(ifTScen*is<maxtripgenerationtime)or2. bysteppingupto100%(ifT Scen*is>maxtripgenerationtime)c. Note:Thisprocedureimpliesthattheremaybedifferentstagedtripgenerationdistributionsfordifferentscenarios.NUREG/CR 7002usesthestatement"approximately90 thpercentile"asthetimetoendstagingandbeginevacuating.ThevalueofTScen*is1:30fordaytimescenarios,2:00foreveningscenarios,and5:00fortheRegionR21stagedevacuation.3. Stagedtripgenerationdistributionsarecreatedforthefollowingpopulationgroups:a. Residentswithreturningcommutersb. Residentswithoutreturningcommutersc. Residentswithreturningcommutersduringeveningscenariosd. ResidentswithoutreturningcommutersduringeveningscenariosFigure5 5presentsth estagedtripgenerationdistributionsforbothresidentswithandwithoutreturningcommuters;the90 thpercentiletwo mileevacuationtimeis90minutesduringthedaytime,120minutesduringeveningscenarios,and300minutesfortheRegionR21stagedevacuation.Atthe90 thpercentileevacuationtime,20%ofthepopulation(whonormallywouldhavecompletedtheirmobilizationactivitiesforanun stagedevacuation)advisedtoshelterhasneverthelessdepartedthearea.Thesepeopledonotcomplywiththeshelteradvisory.Alsoincludedontheplotarethetripgenerationdistributionsforthesegroupsasappliedtotheregionsadvisedtoevacuateimmediately.Sincethe90 thpercentileevacuationtimeoccursbeforetheendofthetripgenerationtime,aftertheshelteredregionisadvisedtoevacuate,thesheltertripgenerationdistributionrisestomeetthebalanceofthenonstagedtripgenerationdistribution.FollowingtimeTScen*,thebalanceofstagedevacuationtripsthatarereadytodepartarereleasedwithin15minutes.AfterT Scen*+15,theremainderofevacuationtripsaregeneratedinaccordancewiththeunstagedtripgenerationdistribution.Table5 9andTable5 10providethetripgenerationhistogramsforthestagedevacuations.5.4.3 TripGenerationforWaterwaysandRecreationalAreasAccordingtotheStandardOperatingProcedurefortheStateDepartmentofParksandRecreation(partoftheCountyofOrangeSanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationEmergencyOperationsPlan),theDepartmentofParksandRecreation(StateParks)isresponsiblefornotifyingthepublicinparks,beachesandcampgroundsinthevicinityofSONGS.TheplansalsostatethattheU.S.CoastGuardhasjurisdictionofthePacificOceanandthattheCoastGuardwillnotifyvesselsatseaovermarineradioandothermeansintheeventofanemergencyat SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation5 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SONGS.CoordinationwiththeCoastGuardistheresponsibilityofSanDiegoCountyOfficeofEmergencyServices.AsindicatedinTable5 2,thisstudyassumes100%notificationin45minutes.Table5 8indicatesthatalltransientswillhavemobilizedwithin2hours.Itisassumedthatthis2hourtimeframeissufficienttimeforboaters,campersandothertransientstoreturntotheirvehiclesandbegintheirevacuationtrip.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation5 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table5 8.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforUn stagedEvacuationTimePeriodDuration(Min)PercentofTotalTripsGeneratedWithinIndicatedTimePeriodEmployees(DistributionA)Transients(DistributionA)ResidentswithCommuters(DistributionC)ResidentsWithoutCommuters(DistributionD)115 7%7%0%1%215 34%34%0%11%315 34%34%3%27%415 15%15%10%25%515 5%5%16%12%615 3%3%17%9%715 1%1%14%4%815 1%1%11%1%915 0%0%8%2%1015 0%0%5%3%1160 0%0%12%4%1230 0%0%2%1%1330 0%0%1%0%1430 0%0%1%0%15600 0%0%0%0%NOTE: Shadowvehiclesareloadedontotheanalysisnetwork(Figure1 2)usingDistributionsCforgoodweather. SpecialeventvehiclesareloadedusingDistributionA.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation5 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure5 4.ComparisonofTripGenerationDistributions0 20 40 60 801000306090120150180210240270300

%ofPopulationBeginningEvacuationTripElapsedTimefromEvacuationAdvisory(min)TripGenerationDistributions Employees/TransientsResidentswithCommutersResidentswithnoCommuters SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation5 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table5 9.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforStagedEvacuationTimePeriodDuration(Min)PercentofTotalTripsGeneratedWithinIndicatedTimePeriod*ResidentswithCommutersDaytime(DistributionC)ResidentsWithoutCommutersDaytime(DistributionD)ResidentsWithCommutersEvening(DistributionE)ResidentsWithoutCommutersEvening(DistributionF)1150%0%0%0%2150%2%0%2%3151%6%1%6%4152%5%2%5%5153%2%3%2%6153%2%3%2%71551%72%3%1%81511%1%2%0%9158%2%65%74%10155%3%5%3%116012%4%12%4%12302%1%2%1%13301%0%1%0%14301%0%1%0%156000%0%0%0%*TripGenerationforEmployeesandTransients(seeTable5 8)isthesameforUn stagedandStagedEvacuation.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation5 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table510.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforStagedEvacuationforRegionR21TimePeriodDuration(Min)PercentofTotalTripsGeneratedWithinIndicatedTimePeriod*ResidentswithCommuters(DistributionG)ResidentsWithoutCommuters(DistributionH)1 15 0%0%2 15 0%2%3 15 1%6%4 15 2%5%5 15 3%2%6 15 3%2%7 15 3%1%8 15 2%0%9 15 2%0%1015 1%1%1160 2%1%1260 1%0%1330 0%0%1415 80%80%15600 0%0%*TripGenerationforEmployeesandTransients(seeTable5 8)isthesameforUn stagedandStagedEvacuation.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation5 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure5 5.ComparisonofStagedandUn stagedTripGenerationDistributions0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 901000306090120150180210240270300330

%ofPopulationBeginningEvacuationTripElapsedtimefromEvacuationAdvisory(min)StagedandUnstagedTripGeneration Employees/TransientsResidentswithCommutersResidentswithnoCommutersStagedResidentswithCommutersMiddayStagedResidentswithnoCommutersMiddayStagedResidentswithCommutersEveningStagedResidentswithnoCommutersEveningStagedResidentswithCommutersRegionR21StagedResidentswithnoCommutersRegionR21 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation6 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.16 DEMANDESTIMATIONFOREVACUATIONSCENARIOSAnevacuation"case"definesacombinationofEvacuationRegionandEvacuationScenario.Thedefinitionsof"Region"and"Scenario"areasfollows:RegionAgroupingofcontiguousevacuatingPAZthatformseithera"keyhole"sector basedarea,oracircularareawithintheEPZ,thatmustbeevacuatedinresponsetoaradiologicalemergenc y.ScenarioAcombinationofcircumstances,includingtimeofday,dayofweek,season,andweatherconditions.Scenariosdefinethenumberofpeopleineachoftheaffectedpopulationgroupsandtheirrespectivemobilizationtimedistributions.Atotalof21RegionsweredefinedwhichencompassallthegroupingsofPAZconsidered.TheseRe gionsaredefinedinTable6 1.ThePAZconfigurationsareidentifiedinFigure6 1.Eachkeyholesectorbasedareaconsistsofacentralcirclecenteredatthepowerplant,andthreeadjoiningsectors,eachwithacentralangleof22.5degrees,asperNUREG/CR 7002guidance.Thece ntralsectorcoincideswiththewinddirection.Thesesectorsextendto5milesfromtheplant(RegionsR04throughR09)ortotheEPZboundary(RegionsR10andR11).RegionsR01,R02andR03representevacuationsofcircularareaswithradiiof2,5and10miles,respect ively.RegionsR12throughR18areidenticaltoRegionsR04throughR09andR02,respectively;however,thosePAZbetween2milesand5milesarestageduntil90%ofthe2 mileregion(RegionR01)hasevacuated.Atotalof13ScenarioswereevaluatedforallRegions.Thu s,thereareatotalof21x13=273evacuationcases.Table6 2isadescriptionofallScenarios.Eachcombinationofregionandscenarioimpliesaspecificpopulationtobeevacuated.Table6 3presentsthepercentageofeachpopulationgroupestimatedtoevacuateforeachscenario.Table6 4presentsthevehiclecountsforeachscenarioforanevacuationofRegionR03-theentireEPZ.ThevehicleestimatespresentedinSection3arepeakvalues.Thesepeakvaluesareadjustedtoaveragevaluesdependingonthescenarioandregionbeingconsidered,usingscenarioandregionspecificpercentages.ThescenariopercentagesarepresentedinTable6 3,whiletheregionalpercentagesareprovidedinTableH 1.Thepercen tagespresentedinTable6 3weredeterminedasfollows:Thenumberofresidentswithcommutersduringtheweek(whenworkforceisatitspeak)isequaltotheproductof57%(thenumberofho useholdswithatleastonecommuter)and36%(thenumberofhouseholdswithacommuterthatwouldawaitthereturnofthecommuterpriortoevacuating).Seeassumption3inSection2.3.Itisestimatedforweekendandeveningscenariosthat10%ofhouseholdswithreturningcommuterswillhaveacommu teratworkduringthosetimes.Employmentisassumedtobeatitspeak(100%)duringthewinter,midweek,middayscenarios.Employmentisreducedslightly(96%)forsummer,midweek,middayscenarios.Thisisbasedon SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation6 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1theestimationthat50%oftheemployeescommutingintotheEPZwillbeonvacationforaweekduringtheapproximate12weeksofsummer.Itisfurtherestimatedthatthosetakingvacationwillbeuniformlydispersedthroughoutthesummerwithapproximately4%ofemployeesvacationingeachweek.Itisfurtherestimatedtha tonly10%oftheemployeesareworkingintheeveningsandduringtheweekends.Transientactivityisestimatedtobeatitspeak(100%)duringsummerweekendsandless(80%)duringtheweek.AsshowninAppendixE,thereisasignificantamountoflodgingandcampgroundsofferingovernightaccommo dationsintheEPZ;thus,transientactivityisestimatedtobehighduringeveninghours-50%forsummerand33%forwinter.Transientactivityislessduringthewintermonths-50%duringtheweekand65%onweekends.Seasonalpopulationisestimatedtobe100%duringsummermonths,and0%duringallothertimes.AsnotedintheshadowfootnotetoTable6 3,theshadowpercentagesarecomputedusingabaseof20%(seeassumption5inSection2.2);toincludetheemployeeswithintheShadowRegionwhomaychoosetoevacuate,thevoluntaryevacuationismultipliedbyascenario specificproportionofemployeestopermanentresidentsintheShadowRegion.Forexample,usingthevaluesprovidedinTable6 4forScenario1,theshadowpercentageiscomputedasfollows:Onespecialevent-FourthofJulyWeekend-wasconsideredasScenario11.Thus,thespecialeventtrafficis100%evacuatedforScenario11,and0%forallotherscenarios.Itisestimatedthatsummerschoolenrollmentisapproximately10%ofenrollmentduringtheregularschoolyearforsummer,midweek,middayscenarios.Schoolisno tinsessionduringweekendsandevenings,thusnobusesforschoolchildrenareneededunderthosecircumstances.AsdiscussedinSection7,schoolsareinsessionduringthewinterseason,midweek,middayand100%ofbuseswillbeneededunderthosecircumstances.Transitbusesforthetransit dependentpopulationaresetto100%forallscenariosasitisassumedthatthetransit dependentpopulationispresentintheEPZforallscenarios.Externaltrafficisestimatedtobereducedby60%duringeveningscenariosandis100%forallotherscenarios.Anadditionalearthquakescenario,Scenario13,wasalsoconsideredinwhichallbridgeswhicharenotretrofittedtowithstandanearthquakeintheEPZareassumedtobeinaccessibleduringtheevacuation.ThesebridgesareidentifiedinTable6 5andmappedinFigure6 2.ItisalsoassumedthattherewouldbenoexternaltrafficafterasevereearthquakeinScenario13.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation6 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 1.DescriptionofEvacuationRegionsRegionDescriptionPAZNRCSONGS12345R012 MileRegion2 MileRegionxR025 MileRegion5 MileRegionxxxxR03FullEPZFullEPZxxxxxEvacuate2 MileRegionandDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionTowardsPAZNRCSONGS12345R04NW,NNW,NP,Q,R,A,BxxR05NNExxxR06NE,ENE,E,ESEC,D,E,F,GxxR07SExxxR08SSE,S,SSW,SW,WSW,WH,J,K,L,M,NxxR09WNWxxxEvacuate5 MileRegionandDownwindtoEPZBoundaryRegionWindDirectionTowardsPAZNRCSONGS12345N/AWNW,NW,NNW,NRefertoR03N/ANNE,NE,ENE,E,ESE,SE,SSE,S,SSW,SW,WSW,WRefertoR02Evacuate2 MileRegionandDownwindtoEPZBoundaryRegionWindDirectionTowardsPAZNRCSONGS12345R10NW,NNW,NP,Q,R,A,BxxxN/ANNERefertoR05N/ANE,ENE,E,ESEC,D,E,F,GRefertoR06N/ASE,SSERefertoR07N/AS,SSW,SW,WSW,WH,J,K,L,M,NRefertoR08R11WNWxxxxStagedEvacuation2 MileRegionEvacuates,thenEvacuateDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionTowardsPAZNRCSONGS12345R12NW,NNW,NP,Q,R,A,BxxR13NNExxxR14NE,ENE,E,ESEC,D,E,F,GxxR15SExxxR16SSE,S,SSW,SW,WSW,WH,J,K,L,M,NxxR17WNWxxxR185 MileRegionxxxxSONGSSpecificEvacuationRegionsRegionDescriptionPAZ12345R19EvacuatePAZ5OnlyxR20Evacuate1,ShelterthenEvacuate2,3,4,5xxxxxR21Evacuate1,2,3,4,ShelterthenEvacuate5xxxxxPAZ(s)Shelter in Placeuntil90%ETEforUn stagedRegion,thenEvacuatePAZ(s)Shelter in PlacePAZ(s)Evacuate SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation6 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure6 1.SONGSEPZPAZs SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation6 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 2.EvacuationScenarioDefinitionsScenarioSeason 1DayofWeekTimeofDayWeatherSpecial1SummerMidweekMiddayGoodNone2SummerMidweekMiddayRainNone3SummerWeekendMiddayGoodNone4SummerWeekendMiddayRainNone5SummerMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone6WinterMidweekMiddayGoodNone7WinterMidweekMiddayRainNone8WinterWeekendMiddayGoodNone9WinterWeekendMiddayRainNone10WinterMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone11SummerWeekendMiddayGood4 thofJulyWeekend12SummerMidweekMiddayGoodRoadwayImpact-SingleLaneClosureonI 5Northbound13SummerMidweekMiddayGoodEarthquake1Wintermeansthatschoolisinsession(alsoappliestospringandautumn).Summermeansthatschoolisnotinsession.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation6 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 3.PercentofPopulationGroupsEvacuatingforVariousScenariosScenarioHouseholdsWithReturningCommutersHouseholdsWithoutReturningCommutersEmployeesTransientsShadowSpecialEventSeasonalPopulationSchoolBusesTransitBusesExternalThroughTraffic121%79%96%80%24%0%100%10%100%100%221%79%96%80%24%0%100%10%100%100%32%98%10%100%20%0%100%0%100%100%42%98%10%100%20%0%100%0%100%100%52%98%10%50%20%0%100%0%100%40%621%79%100%50%25%0%0%100%100%100%721%79%100%50%25%0%0%100%100%100%82%98%10%65%20%0%0%0%100%100%92%98%10%65%20%0%0%0%100%100%102%98%10%33%20%0%0%0%100%40%112%98%10%100%20%100%100%0%100%100%1221%79%96%80%24%0%100%10%100%100%1321%79%96%80%24%0%100%10%100%0%ResidentHouseholdswithCommuters.........HouseholdsofEPZresidentswhoawaitthereturnofcommuterspriortobeginningtheevacuationtrip.ResidentHouseholdswithNoCommuters....HouseholdsofEPZresidentswhodonothavecommutersorwillnotawaitthereturnofcommuterspriortobeginningtheevacuationtrip.Employees...................................................EPZemployeeswh oliveoutsidetheEPZTransients....................................................PeoplewhoareintheEPZatthetimeofanaccidentforrecreationalorother(nonemployment)purposes.Shadow........................................................Residentsandemployeesintheshadowregion(outsideoftheEPZ)whowillspontaneouslydecidetorelocateduringtheevacuation.Thebasisforthevaluesshownisa20%relocationofshadowresidentsalongwithaproportionalpercentageofshadowemployees.SpecialEvents..............................................AdditionalvehiclesintheEPZduetotheidentifiedspecialevent.SeasonalPopulation.....................................PeoplewhovisittheEPZandstayconsiderablylongerthantheaveragetransientusingcondos,beachhouses,orrentals.SchoolandTransitBuses..............................Vehicleequivalentspresentontheroadduringevacuationservicingschoolsandtransitdependentpeople(1busisequivalentto2passengervehicles).ExternalThroughTraffic...............................Trafficoninterstates/freewaysandmajorarterialroadsatthestartoftheevacuation.Thistrafficisstoppedbyaccesscontrolapproximately30minutesaftertheevacuationbegins.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation6 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 4.VehicleEstimatesbyScenarioScenarioHouseholdsWithReturningCommutersHouseholdsWithoutReturningCommutersEmployeesTransientsShadow SpecialEventSeasonalPopulationSchoolBusesTransitBusesExternalThroughTrafficTotalScenarioVehicles 116,98265,81618,5607,38314,6771,0971013025,536130,454216,98265,81618,5607,38314,6771,0971013025,536130,45431,69881,1001,9339,22912,2701,0973025,536113,16541,69881,1001,9339,22912,2701,0973025,536113,16551,69881,1001,9334,61512,2701,0973022,214105,229616,98265,81619,3334,61514,7891,0123025,536128,385716,98265,81619,3334,61514,7891,0123025,536128,38581,69881,1001,9335,99912,2703025,536108,83891,69881,1001,9335,99912,2703025,536108,838101,69881,1001,9333,04612,2703022,214102,563111,69881,1001,9339,22912,27064,2391,0973025,536177,4041216,98265,81618,5607,38314,6771,0971023025,536130,4541316,98265,81618,5607,38314,6771,097101302124,616Note:VehicleestimatesareforanevacuationoftheentireEPZ(RegionR03)

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation6 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 5.ListofNonRetrofittedBridgeStructuresintheSONGSEPZIDRouteDistrictBridgeNumberCityRoad\WaterwayOverpassedLength(M)YearBuilt\YearWid.Ext.1I 512550205SanClemente AvenidaPalizada49.71960\1981 2I 512550204SanClemente AvenidaPresido43.61960\1981 3I 512550207SanClemente AvenidaPico42.71960\1981 4I 512550223SanClemente AvenidaVaquero53.01981 5I 512550226DanaPointS.R.1\CaminoLasRamblas69.81960\19735I 512550230SanJuanCapistranoElHornoSt54.21958\19697I 512550231SanJuanCapistrano JuniperoSerraRd38.11958\19698I 512550289SanJuanCapistrano TrabucoCreek72.81959\1969 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation6 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure6 2.NonRetrofittedBridgeStructuresintheSONGSEPZ SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation7 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.17 GENERALPOPULATIONEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATES(ETE)ThissectionpresentstheETEresultsofthecomputeranalysesusingtheDYNEVIISystemdescribedinAppendicesB,CandD.Theseresultscover21regionswithintheSONGSEPZandthe13EvacuationScenariosdiscussedinSection6.TheETEforallEvacuatio nCasesarepresentedinTable7 1andTable7 2.ThesetablespresenttheestimatedtimestocleartheindicatedpopulationpercentagesfromtheEvacuationRegionsforallEvacuationScenarios.TheETEofthe2 mileregioninbothstagedandunstagedregionsarepresentedinTable7 3andTable7 4.TheETEofthe5 mileregioninbothstagedandun stagedregionsarepresentedinTable7 5andTable7 6.Table7 7definestheEvacuationRegionsconsidered.ThetabulatedvaluesofETEareobtainedfromtheDYNEVIISystemoutputswhicharegeneratedat5 minuteintervals.7.1 VoluntaryEvacuationandShadowEvacuation"Voluntaryevacuees"arepeoplewithintheEPZinPAZforwhichanAdvisorytoEvacuatehasnotbeenissued,yetwhoelecttoevacuate."Shadowevacuation"isthevoluntaryoutwardmovementofsomepeoplefromtheShadowRegion(outsidetheEPZ)forwhomnoprotectiveactionrecommendatio nhasbeenissued.BothvoluntaryandshadowevacuationsareassumedtotakeplaceoverthesametimeframeastheevacuationfromwithintheimpactedEvacuationRegion.TheETEfortheSONGSEPZaddressestheissueofvoluntaryevacueesinthemannershowninFigure7 1.WithintheEPZ,20percentofpeoplelocatedinPAZoutsideoftheevacuationregionwhoarenotadvisedtoevacuate,areassumedtoelecttoevacuate.Similarly,itisassumedthat20percentofthosepeopleintheShadowRegionwillchoosetoleavethearea.Figure7 2presentstheareaidentifiedastheShadowRegion.ThisregionextendsradiallyfromtheplanttocoveraregionbetweentheEPZboundaryandapproximately15miles.ThepopulationandnumberofevacuatingvehiclesintheShadowRegionwereestimatedusingthesamemethodologythatwasusedforpermanentresidentswithintheEPZ(seeSection3.1).AsdiscussedinSection3.2,itisestimatedthatatotalof111,045peopleresideintheShadowRegion;20percentofthemwouldevacuate.SeeTable6 4forthenumberofevacuatingvehiclesfromtheShadowRegion.TrafficgeneratedwithinthisShadowRegion,travelingawayfromtheSONGSlocation,hasthepotentialforimpedingevacuatingvehiclesfromwithintheEvacuationRegion.AllETEcalculationsincludethisshadowtrafficmovement.7.2 StagedEvacuationAsdefinedinNUREG/CR 7002,stagedevacuationconsistsofthefollowing:1. PAZcomprisingthe2mileregionareadvisedtoevacuateimmediately.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation7 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.12. PAZcomprisingregionsextendingfrom2to5milesdownwindareadvisedtoshelterin placewhilethetwomileregioniscleared.3. Asvehiclesevacuatethe2mileregion,peoplefrom2to5milesdownwindcontinuepreparationforevacuationwhiletheyshelter.4. Thepopulationshelteringinthe2to5mileregionisadvisedtoevacuatewhenapproximately90%ofth e2mileregionevacuatingtrafficcrossesthe2mileregionboundary.5. Non compliancewiththeshelterrecommendationisthesameastheshadowevacuationpercentageof20%.Asecondstagedevacuationwasconsideredforthisstudyandconsistsofthefollowing:1. PAZ1through4(5 mileregion)areadvisedtoevacuateimmediately.2. PAZ5isadvisedtoshelter in placewhilethe5 mileregioniscleared.3. Asvehiclesevacuatethe5 mileregion,peopleinPAZ5continuepreparationforevacuationwhiletheyshelter.4. ThepopulationshelteringinPAZ5isadvisedtoevacuatewhenapproximately90%ofthe5 mileregionevacuatingtrafficcrossesthe5 mileregionboundary.5. Non compliancewiththeshelterrecommendationisthesameastheshadowevacuationpercentageof20%.SeeSection5.4.2foradditionalinformationonstagedevacuation.7.3 PatternsofTrafficCongestionduringEvacuationFigure7 3throughFigure7 9illustratethepatternsoftrafficcongestionthatariseforthecasewhentheentireEPZ(RegionR03)isadvisedtoevacuateduringthesummer,midweek,middayperiodundergoodweatherconditions(Scenario1).Trafficcongestion,asthetermisusedhere,isdefinedasLevelofService(LOS)F.LOSFisdefinedasfollows(HCM2010,page5 5):TheHCMus esLOSFtodefineoperationsthathaveeitherbrokendown(i.e.,demandexceedscapacity)orhaveexceededaspecifiedservicemeasurevalue,orcombinationofservicemeasurevalues,thatmostuserswouldconsiderunsatisfactory.However,particularlyforplanningapplicationswheredifferentalternativesmaybecompared,analystsmaybeinterestedinknowingjusthowbadtheLOSFconditionis.Severalmeasuresareavailabletodescribeindividually,orincombination,theseverityofaLOSFcondition:*Demand to capacityratiosdescribetheextenttowhichcapacityisexceededduringtheanalysisperiod(e.g.,by1%,15%,etc.);*DurationofLOSFdescribeshowlongtheconditionpersists(e.g.,15min,1h,3h);and SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation7 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1*SpatialextentmeasuresdescribetheareasaffectedbyLOSFconditions.Theseincludemeasuressuchasthebackofqueue,andtheidentificationofthespecificintersectionapproachesorsystemelementsexperiencingLOSFconditions.Allhighway"links"whichexperienceLOSFaredelineatedinthesefiguresbyathickredline;al lothersarelightlyindicated.Congestiondevelopsrapidlyaroundconcentrationsofpopulationandtrafficbottlenecks.Figure7 3displaysthedevelopingcongestionwithinthepopulationcentersofSanClemente,DanaPointandSanJuanCapistrano,just30minutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate(ATE).NotethatInterstate 5(I 5),whichisservicingboththeexternal externaltrip sandtheevacuatingtrips,isdisplayingheavytrafficdemand(LOSD).TheplantaccessroadandOldPacificHwyarecongested(seeinsetmaptoFigure7 3)asworkersevacuatingfromSanOnofreandtransientsevacuatingfromSanOnofreStateBeachqueuetoaccesstheon rampstoI 5.Theon rampstoI 5NorthboundinSanClementearealreadycongested,aswellasthemajorarterialsleadingtotheseramps(ElCaminoReal,AvenidaPico,AvenidaVistaHermosaandCaminodelosMares).TCPsattheseintersectionsforceevacueesontoI 5Northbound.PacificCoastHwyinCapistranoBeachisalreadycongestedasevacueesfromCapistranoBeachandSanClementeaccessSR 1.CongestionbeginstobuildinDanaPointandinSanJuanCapistranoalongCaminoCapistrano.AtonehouraftertheATE,Figure7 4displaystrafficcongestioninallpopulatedareaswithintheEPZ.TheplantaccessroadandOldPacificHwyarestillcongested.CongestionbeginstobuildinMCBalongSanMateoDrandBasiloneRd.SanMateoDriscongestedasthoseevacueesfromCampSanMateo(52/53Area)encounterastopsignattheintersectionwithBasiloneRd.BasiloneRdisexperiencingLOSFasspeedsdropthroughCampSanOnofre(51/52Area),CampHorno(53Area),andCampLasPulgas(43Area).DanaPointandSanJuanCapistranoarenowfullycongested.I 5northboundisnowoperatingatLOSFthroughthecityofSanClementeandpartsofthecityofSanJuanCapistrano.I 5southboundisclearofcongestionsouthofSanClemente.VehiclesinSanClementearequeuedalongthemajorarterialsaccessingI 5northboundramps.PacificCoastHwyandElCaminoRealarenowfullycongestedinCapistran oBeachandSanClemente.AttwohoursaftertheATE,congestioninSanClementeandDanaPointpersistsandcongestioninSanJuanCapistranobeginstosubside,asshowninFigure7 5.SanClementeremainsfullycongested,asalmostallevacueeshavemobilizedandbeguntheirevacuationtrip.CongestioninMCBpersistssouthboundthroughCampSanMateo,CampSanOnofreandCampHorno,andbeginstosubsideinCampLasPulgas.TheplantaccessroadandOldPacificHwyarenowclearofcongestion.TheonlycongestionthatpersistsinPAZ1isalongBasiloneRdexitingMCB.Atthreeho ursaftertheATE,the2 mileregionisclearofcongestion(LOSF)inFigure7 6.CongestionisbeginningtoclearinDanaPointandSanJuanCapistrano,whileSanClementeisstillfullycongestedasvehiclesattempttoaccesstherampsontoI 5NB.CongestionremainsinMCBoutsideofthe2 m ileregiononBasiloneRdaswellasSanMateoDr.AtfourhoursaftertheATE,the2 mileregionisclearoftraffic,asshowninFigure7 7.CongestionpersistsalongBasiloneRdsouthboundinMCBandalongthemajorarterialsaswell SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation7 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1asI 5NBintheSanClementearea.CongestionalongElCaminoRealandPacificCoastHwycontinuestodissipateandthecongestioninDanaPointandSanJuanCapistranohascleared.AtsixhoursaftertheATE,congestion(LOSF)inMCBisnowclear,asshowninFigure7 8.Whilecong estionpersistsalongthemajorarterialsinSanClementeaccessingtheI 5northboundon ramps,allroadswestofI 5inSanClementeareclearofcongestion.ThecongestioninSanClementeisnowaresultofthelimitedcapacityoftheon rampstoaccessI 5northbound.TCPscontinuetoforceallevacueesontotheserampstoexitthearea.CongestionalongPacificCoastHwyinCapistranoBeachhasalmostcompletelysubsided.AtsixhoursandtwentyminutesaftertheATE,theEPZisclearofcongestionasshowninFigure7 9.Thelastremnantsoftrafficcongestiontoclearinth eEPZwereon rampstoI 5northboundinthecityofSanClementeat6hoursand20minutes.7.4 EvacuationRatesEvacuationisacontinuousprocess,asimpliedbyFigure7 10throughFigure7 22.Thesefiguresindicatetherateatwhichtrafficflo wsoutoftheindicatedareasforthecaseofanevacuationofthefullEPZ(RegionR03)undertheindicatedconditions.Onefigureispresentedforeachscenarioconsidered.AsindicatedinFigure7 10,vehiclesbegintoevacuatetheareaslowlyatfirst,aspeoplerespondtotheATEatdifferentrates.Thentrafficdemandbuildsrapidly(slopesofthecurvesincrease).Whenthesystembecomescongested,trafficexitstheEPZatratessomewhatbelowcapacityuntilsomeevacuationrouteshavecleared.Asmoreroutesclear,theaggregaterateofegressslowssincemanyvehicleshavealreadylefttheEPZ.Towardstheendoftheprocess,relativelyfewevacuationroutesservicetheremainingdemand.Therateofegressforthe5 mileregion,however,remainsrelativelyconstantthroughoutthecourseoftheevacuation.ThisisduetothelimitednumberofevacuationroutesoutofSanClem entetothenorth,andthefactthatthearearemainsfullysaturatedforalmosttheentiretyoftheevacuation,asdiscussedinsection7.3.TCPsinSanClementedirectevacueesontoI 5northbound.ThelimitedcapacityoftheseonrampsmetervehiclesontoI 5,creatingaconstantflowofvehiclesuntiltheendoftheevacuation.Thiseffectal soimpactsthecurvefortheentireEPZaswell.Conversely,therateofegressforthe2 mileregionhasalong"tail"ascongestioninthisregionbeginstodissipatemuchearlierthaninthe5 mileregion,asdepictedinFigure7 6.Thisdeclineinaggregateflo wrate,towardstheendoftheprocess,ischaracterizedbythesecurvesflatteningandgraduallybecominghorizontal.Ideally,itwouldbedesirabletofullysaturateallevacuationroutesequallysothatallwillservicetrafficnearcapacitylevelsandallwillclearatthesametime.Forthisidealsituation,allcurveswouldretainthesameslopeuntiltheend-thusminimizingevacuationtime.Inreality,thisidealisgenerallyunattainablereflectingthespatialvariationinpopulationdensity,mobilizationratesandinhighwaycapacityovertheEPZ.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation7 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.17.5 EvacuationTimeEstimate(ETE)ResultsTable7 1andTable7 2presenttheETEvaluesforall21EvacuationRegionsandall14EvacuationScenarios.Table7 3andTable7 4presenttheETEvaluesforthe2 mileregionforbothstagedandunstaged(concurrent)keyholeregionsdownwindto5miles.Table7 5andTable7 6presenttheETEvaluesforthe5 mileregionforbothstagedandun stagedkeyholeregionsdownwindtotheEPZboundary.Thetablesareorganizedasfollows:TableContents 7 1ETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor90percentofthepopulationwithinaRegion,toevacuatefromthatRegion.AllScenariosareconsidered,aswellasStagedEvacuationregions.7 2ETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor100percentofthepopulationwithinaRegion,toevacuatefromthatRegion.AllScenariosareconsidered,aswellasStagedEvacuationregions.7 3ETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor90percentofthepopulationwithinthe2 mileRegion,toevacuatefromthatRegionwithbothConcurrentandStagedEvacuations.7 4ETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor100percentofthepopulationwithinthe2 mileRegion,toevacuatefromthatRegionwithbothConcurrentandStagedEvacuations.7 5ETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor90percentofthepopulationwithinthe5 mileRegion,toevacuatefromthatRegionwithbothConcurrentandStagedEvacuations.7 6ETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor100percentofthepopulationwithinthe5 mileRegion,toevacuatefromthatRegionwithbothConcurrentandStagedEvacuations.TheanimationsnapshotsdescribedabovereflecttheETEstatisticsfortheconcurrent(un staged)evacuationscenariosandregions,whicharedisplayedinFigure7 3throughFigure7 9.MostofthecongestionislocatedinSanClemente(PAZ4),whichisbeyond2miles;thisisreflectedintheETEstatistics: The90 thpercentileETEforRegionR02(5 mileregion)isapproximately31/2hourslonger,onaverage,thanRegionR01(2 mileregion). The90 thpercentileETEforthosekeyholeregionswhichincludePAZ4(RegionsR04,R05,R09,R10,andR11)arelongerthanthoseregionswhichdonotincludePAZ4.The100thpercentileETEforthe2 mileregioniscomparabletomobilizationtime.Thisfactimpliesthatthecongestionwithinthe2 mileregiondissipatespriortotheendofmobilization,asisdisplayedinFigure7 7anddiscussedinSections7.3and7.4.However,forthoseevacuationregionsthatextendbeyond2 miles,ETEissignificantlylongerthanmobilization SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation7 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1time,implyingthattrafficcongestiondoesnotclearpriortothecompletionofmobilizationtime,asseeninFigure7 8anddiscussedinSection7.3.ThecongestionispronouncedinSanClemente(PAZ4);the100thpercentileETEforregionsincludingthecityofSanClementeareapproximately1:00to1:45longerthanmobilizationtimefornon specialeventscenarios.ComparisonofScenario s3and11inTable7 1indicatesthattheSpecialEvent-FourthofJulyWeekend-hasasignificantimpactontheETEatthe90thpercentile.Theadditional64,239vehiclespresentintheEPZincreasecongestiononthelocalroads,especiallywithinDanaPoint,andtoalesserexten t,SanClemente.ForthoseevacuationregionswhichincludeSanClemente,butnotDanaPoint,the90 thpercentileETEincreasesbyupto40minutes.ForthoseevacuationregionswhichincludeDanaPoint,the90 thpercentileETEincreasesbyupto2hours.Thespecialeventhasasignificantimpactonthe100 thpercentileETEaswell,withincreasesofupto45minutesforregionswhichincludeSanClementeandincreasesofupto3hoursand25minutesforregionswhichincludeDanaPoint.ComparisonofScenarios1and12inTable7 1indicatesthattheroadwayclosure-onelanenorthboundonI 5fromSONGS(approximately2milessouthofBasiloneRd-Exit71)totheendoftheanalysisnetworkattheinterchang ewithOsoParkway(Exit88)doeshaveasignificantimpactonthe90 thand100 thpercentileETEforkeyholeregionswhichinvolvethedirectevacuationofPAZ4and5,withupto1:20and1:45increasesinETE,respectively.TheevacuationofSanClementeandSanJuanCapistranoroutesevacueesontoI 5northbound.WithalaneclosedonI 5northbound,thecapacityofI 5isreducedby20 25%,increasin gcongestionandprolongingevacuation.RegionswhichonlyevacuatePAZ1andPAZ3(MCB)arenotimpactedbytheroadwayclosure.TheresultsoftheroadwayimpactscenarioindicatethateventssuchastrafficaccidentswhichclosealaneonI 5,couldimpactET E.Stateandlocalpolicecouldconsidertrafficmanagementtacticssuchasusingtheshoulderoftheroadwayasatravellaneorre routingoftrafficalongotherevacuationroutestoavoidoverwhelmingI 5.AlleffortsshouldbemadetoremoveanyblockageonI 5asquicklyaspossibleduringanevacuation.ComparisonofScenarios1and13inTable7 1indicatesthatasevereearthquakehasasignificantimpactonthe90 thpercentileETE,withincreasesofupto9hoursand15minutes.TheinaccessiblebridgesreducethealreadylimitednumberofexitpointsoutoftheCityofSanClementeforcingevacueestorelyprimarilyonElCaminoRealintoCapistranoBeach.Theearthquakealsohasasignificantimpactonthe100 thpercentileETEwithincreasesofupto13hours,asindicatedinTable7 2.TheresultsoftheearthquakescenarioindicatethatalleffortsshouldbemadetoinspecttheintegrityofthebridgeswithintheEPZafteranearthquakeandrepairandreopenbridgesifpossible.AllowingevacueestouseI 5southboundcouldalsobeconsidered,butth epotentialexposuretoradioactivitybytheevacueesmustbeconsideredasevacueeswouldberoutedclosertoSONGS.IfareleaseisexpectedinatimeframeshorterthantheETE,shelteringinplacecouldbeconsidered.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation7 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.17.6 StagedEvacuationResultsTable7 3andTable7 4presentacomparisonoftheETEforthe2 mileregioncompiledfortheconcurrentandstagedevacuationstudies.NotethatRegionsR12throughR18arethesamegeographicareasasRegionsR04throughR09andR02,respectively.Todeterminewhetherthestagedevacuationstrategyisworthyofconsideration,onemustshowthatth eETEforthe2 mileregioncanbereducedwithoutsignificantlyaffectingtheregionbetween2milesand5miles.AsindicatedinTable7 3,theETEforthe2 mileregiondoesnotdecreaseforanyre gionwhenstagingevacuation.AsdiscussedinSection7.3,congestioninSanClementeisconcentratedalongtheon rampstoI 5andthosearterialsthataccessI 5.CongestiononI 5northboundneverbacksupintothe2 mileregion.Consequently,theimpedanceduetothiscongestionwithinSanClem entetoevacueesfromwithinthe2mileregionisnotsufficienttosignificantlyinfluencethe90 thpercentileETEforthe2 mileregion.NotethattheETEinTable7 3forthe2mileareaincreasesbyabout30minuteswhenevacuatingthoseregions(R02,R04,R05,R09,R12,R13,R17andR18)whereinPAZ4evacuates.ThisincreaseinETEforthe2 mileregionisananomalyan disnotduetocongestion.Thereisresidentpopulation(evacuatinginapproximately2,000vehicles)inthesoutheastcornerofPAZ4thatusesCristianitosRdtoaccessI 5northbound.Thisroutebringsvehiclesfrombeyond2milesintothe2 mileregion.Theseresidentvehicleshavelongermobilizationtimesthanthetransientsandemployeesthatconstitutethevastmajorityofthe2 mileregionpopulation.Also,theseresidentsshelterinplacefor1hourand30minutesbeforeevacuating.Thedelayeddepartureofthesevehiclesandtheuseofaroutethatentersthe2mileregionisthecauseofthe30minuteincreaseinETE.Table7 4indicatesthatthe100 thpercentileETEforbothun stagedandstagedevacuationofthe2 mileregionforallregionsandscenariosisroughly5hours,whichreflectsthetripgenerationtime,ratherthantrafficcongestion.Thereisnobenefitofstagingatthe100 thpercentile.ComparingRegionsR12throughR18andRegionsR04throughR09andR02inTable7 1revealsthatstagingretardsthe90 thpercentileETEforthoseinthe2to5 mileregionbyupto55minutes.ThisextendingofETEisduetothedelayinbeginningtheevacuationtrip,experiencedbythosewhoshelter,plustheeffectofthetrip generation"spike"(significantvolumeoftrafficbeginningtheevacuationtripatthesametime-seeFigure5 5)thatfollowstheireventualATE,increatingcongestionwithintheEPZareabeyond2miles.Twoadditionalstagedregionswereconsidered,RegionsR20andR21,bothofwhicharethesameasRegionR03exceptforthestagedevacuationofsomePAZ.ComparingRegionsR20andR03inTable7 3indicatesthatthereisnotamateri albenefittoevacueesfromwithinthe2 mileregion.However,comparingtheseregionsinTable7 1andTable7 2indicatethatstagingretardsthe90 thand100 thpercentileETEbyupto15minutes.ComparingRegionsR21andR03inTable7 5indicatesthatthereisnosignificantbenefittoevacueesfromwithinthe5mileregionwhenstagingtheevacuationofPAZ5.Consequently,comparingtheseregionsinTable SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation7 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.17 1andTable7 2indicatethereareincreasesinthe90 thand100 thpercentileETEbyuptoonehourandfortyminutes,andonehourandtenminutes,respectively.Insummary,stagedevacuationofthe2 mileregioninnotbeneficialforevacuatingtheresidentpopulationwithinthe2 mileregionofSONGS.7.7 GuidanceonUsingETETablesTheuserfirstdeterminesthepercentileofpopulationforwhichtheETEissought(TheNRCguidancecallsforthe90 thpercentile).TheapplicablevalueofETEwithinthechosenTablemaythenbeidentifiedusingthefollowingprocedure:1. IdentifytheapplicableScenario:* Season Summer Winter(alsoAutumnandSpring)* DayofWeek Midweek Weekend* TimeofDay Midday Evening* WeatherCondition GoodWeather Rain* SpecialEven t FourthofJulyWeekend RoadClosure(AlaneonI 5NBisclosed) Earthquake* EvacuationStaging No,StagedEvacuationisnotconsidered Yes,StagedEvacuationisconsideredWhiletheseScenariosaredesigned,inaggregate,torepresentconditionsthroughouttheyear,somefurtherclarificationiswarranted:* Theconditionsofasummerevening(eithermidweekorweekend)andrainarenotexplicitlyidentifiedintheTables.Fortheseconditions,Scenarios(2)and(4)apply.* Theconditionsofawinterevening(eithermidweekorweekend)andrainarenotexplicitlyidentifiedintheTables.Fortheseconditions,Scenarios(7)and(9)forrainapply.* Theseasonsaredefinedasfollows: Summerassumesthatpublicschoolsarenotinsession. Winter(includesSpringandAutumn)considersthatpublicschoolsareinsession.* TimeofDay:Middayimpliesthetimeoverwhichmostcommutersareatworkoraretravellin gto/fromwork.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation7 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.12. WiththedesiredpercentileETEandScenarioidentified,nowidentifytheEvacuationRegion:* Determinetheprojectedazimuthdirectionoftheplume(coincidentwiththewinddirection).Thisdirectionisexpressedintermsofcompassorientation:towardsN,NNE,NE-* DeterminethedistancethattheEvacuationRegionwillextendfromthenuclearpowerplant.Theapplic abledistancesandtheirassociatedcandidateRegionsaregivenbelow: 2Miles(RegionR01) To5Miles(RegionR02,R04throughR09) ToEPZBoundary(RegionsR03,R10andR11)* EnterTable7 7andidentifytheapplicablegroupofcandidateRe gionsbasedonthedistancethattheselectedRegionextendsfromtheplant.SelecttheEvacuationRegionidentifierinthatrow,basedontheazimuthdirectionoftheplume,fromthefirstcolumnoftheTable.3. DeterminetheETETablebasedonthepercentileselected.Then,fortheScenarioidentifiedinStep1andtheRegionidentifiedinStep2,proceedasfollows:* ThecolumnsofTable7 1arelabeledwiththeScenarionumbers.IdentifythepropercolumnintheselectedTableusingtheScenarionumberdefinedinStep1.* IdentifytherowinthistablethatprovidesETEvaluesfortheRegionidentifiedinStep2.* TheuniquedatacelldefinedbythecolumnandrowsodeterminedcontainsthedesiredvalueofETEexpressedinHours:Minutes

.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation7 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ExampleItisdesiredtoidentifytheETEforthefollowingconditions:* Sunday,August10 that4:00AM.* Itisraining.* Winddirectionistowardthenortheast(NE).* Windspeedissuchthatthedistancetobeevacuatedisjudgedtobea2 mileradiusanddownwindto5miles.* ThedesiredETEisthatvalueneededtoevacuate90percentofthepopul ationfromwithintheimpactedRegion.* Astagedevacuationisnotdesired.Table7 1isapplicablebecausethe90 thpercentileETEisdesired.Proceedasfollows:1. IdentifytheScenarioassummer,weekend,eveningandraining.EnteringTable7 1,itisseenthatthereisnomatchforthesedescriptors.However,theclarificationgivenaboveassignsthiscombinationofcircumstancestoScenario4.2. EnterTable7 7andlocatetheRegiondescribedas"Evacuate2 MileRadiusandDownwindto5Miles"forwinddirectiontowardtheNEandreadRegionR06inthefirstcolumnofthatrow.3. EnterTable7 1tolocatethedatacellcontainingthevalueofETEforScenario4andRegionR06.Thisdatace llisincolumn(4)andintherowforRegionR06;itcontainstheETEvalueof3:15.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation7 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 1.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof90PercentoftheAffectedPopulationSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)Scenario:RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayMiddayRegionGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEarthquakeEntire2 MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZR011:351:401:351:402:201:401:451:401:452:251:301:403:00R01R025:105:454:355:004:255:155:454:304:554:205:106:2011:35R02R034:505:254:204:454:054:505:254:104:404:056:105:5513:50R032 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR045:105:454:254:504:155:155:404:204:454:105:056:2511:55R04R055:105:454:355:004:255:155:454:304:554:205:106:2011:35R05R063:053:203:003:153:253:103:253:053:153:303:003:054:05R06R073:053:203:003:153:253:103:253:053:153:303:003:054:05R07R081:351:401:351:402:201:401:451:401:452:251:301:403:00R08R095:105:454:254:504:155:155:404:204:454:105:056:2511:55R092 MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR104:455:204:154:353:554:455:204:004:303:506:156:0014:00R10R114:455:204:154:353:554:455:204:004:303:506:156:0014:00R11StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR125:055:404:305:004:205:105:404:254:504:205:056:2511:25R12R135:105:454:405:054:355:155:454:355:004:355:106:2011:10R13R143:303:353:253:403:553:303:403:303:404:003:303:304:10R14R153:554:103:554:104:104:004:153:554:104:103:554:004:35R15R161:401:401:401:452:201:451:451:451:452:201:351:403:00R16R175:055:404:305:004:205:105:404:254:504:205:056:2511:25R17R185:105:454:405:054:355:155:454:355:004:355:106:2011:10R18SONGSSpecificEvacuationRegionsR192:102:102:002:052:202:102:102:052:102:201:502:203:05R19R204:505:304:254:554:204:505:254:204:454:156:206:0014:05R20R215:556:155:506:004:205:556:155:506:004:206:206:4013:50R21 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation7 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 2.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof100PercentoftheAffectedPopulationSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)Scenario:RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayMiddayRegionGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEarthquakeEntire2 MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZR015:005:005:005:005:005:055:055:005:005:005:005:005:05R01R026:507:356:106:356:006:557:256:056:356:006:558:3015:20R02R037:007:456:156:506:007:057:406:056:406:009:258:3519:55R032 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR046:507:306:106:355:506:557:256:056:255:406:558:3015:20R04R056:507:356:106:356:006:557:256:056:356:006:558:3015:20R05R065:005:255:005:055:005:055:255:005:005:005:005:055:15R06R075:005:255:005:055:005:055:255:005:005:005:005:055:15R07R085:005:005:005:005:005:055:055:005:005:005:005:005:05R08R096:507:306:106:355:506:557:256:056:255:406:558:3015:20R092 MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR107:007:506:156:505:557:057:406:056:355:459:258:3519:55R10R117:007:506:156:505:557:057:406:056:355:459:258:3519:55R11StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR126:557:306:206:455:356:557:306:056:305:307:008:2514:55R12R137:007:306:206:456:156:557:306:156:356:057:008:2514:55R13R145:055:405:105:205:105:055:255:155:205:105:155:205:15R14R155:055:405:105:205:105:055:255:155:205:105:155:205:15R15R165:005:055:005:005:005:005:005:005:005:005:005:005:00R16R176:557:306:206:455:356:557:306:056:305:307:008:2514:55R17R187:007:306:206:456:156:557:306:156:356:057:008:2514:55R18SONGSSpecificEvacuationRegionsR195:055:005:005:055:005:005:005:005:005:055:005:055:05R19R207:007:456:206:556:157:057:456:156:406:159:458:4519:55R20R217:057:457:107:306:007:157:407:157:256:009:258:4520:05R21 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation7 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 3.TimetoClear90Percentofthe2 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegionSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)Scenario:RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayMiddayRegionGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEarthquakeEntire2 MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZR011:351:401:351:402:201:401:451:401:452:251:301:403:00R01R022:052:151:301:352:052:102:201:351:402:051:302:252:55R02R032:052:151:301:352:052:102:201:351:402:051:302:252:55R032 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR042:052:151:301:352:052:102:201:351:402:051:302:252:55R04R052:052:151:301:352:052:102:201:351:402:051:302:252:55R05R061:351:401:351:352:201:401:451:351:402:251:301:453:00R06R071:351:401:351:352:201:401:451:351:402:251:301:453:00R07R081:351:401:351:402:201:401:451:401:452:251:301:403:00R08R092:052:151:301:352:052:102:201:351:402:051:302:252:55R09StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR122:052:151:501:502:202:102:201:551:552:201:502:202:55R12R132:052:151:501:502:202:102:201:551:552:201:502:202:55R13R141:401:401:401:452:151:451:451:401:452:201:351:402:55R14R151:401:401:401:452:151:451:451:401:452:201:351:402:55R15R161:401:401:401:452:201:451:451:451:452:201:351:403:00R16R172:052:151:501:502:202:102:201:551:552:201:502:202:55R17R182:052:151:501:502:202:102:201:551:552:201:502:202:55R18SONGSSpecificEvacuationRegionsR202:052:151:501:502:152:102:201:501:552:201:502:202:55R20 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation7 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 4.TimetoClear100Percentofthe2 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegionSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)Scenario:RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayMiddayRegionGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEarthquakeEntire2 MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZR015:005:005:005:005:005:055:055:005:005:005:005:005:05R01R025:005:005:005:005:005:055:055:005:005:005:005:005:00R02R035:005:055:005:005:005:055:055:005:005:005:005:005:00R032 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR045:005:005:005:005:005:055:055:005:005:005:005:005:00R04R055:005:005:005:005:005:055:055:005:005:005:005:005:00R05R065:005:005:005:005:005:055:055:005:005:005:005:005:00R06R075:005:005:005:005:005:055:055:005:005:005:005:005:00R07R085:005:005:005:005:005:055:055:005:005:005:005:005:05R08R095:005:005:005:005:005:055:055:005:005:005:005:005:00R09StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR125:005:005:005:005:005:055:055:005:005:005:005:005:00R12R135:005:005:005:005:005:055:055:005:005:005:005:005:00R13R145:005:055:005:005:005:005:005:005:005:005:005:005:00R14R155:005:055:005:005:005:005:005:005:005:005:005:005:00R15R165:005:055:005:005:005:005:005:005:005:005:005:005:00R16R175:005:005:005:005:005:055:055:005:005:005:005:005:00R17R185:005:005:005:005:005:055:055:005:005:005:005:005:00R18SONGSSpecificEvacuationRegionsR205:005:005:005:005:005:055:055:005:005:005:005:005:00R20 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation7 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 5.TimetoClear90Percentofthe5 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegionSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEarthquakeEntire5 MileRegion,andEPZR025:105:454:355:004:255:155:454:304:554:205:106:2011:35R035:205:554:355:054:305:205:554:305:004:255:306:3015:10SONGSSpecificEvacuationRegionsR215:155:504:355:054:305:205:504:355:004:255:156:3015:30 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation7 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 6.TimetoClear100Percentofthe5 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegionSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEarthquakeEntire5 MileRegion,andEPZR026:507:356:106:356:006:557:256:056:356:006:558:3015:20R037:007:406:106:456:007:057:356:006:306:007:158:4019:45SONGSSpecificEvacuationRegionsR216:557:406:106:406:007:007:356:006:306:007:058:4519:55 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation7 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 7.DescriptionofEvacuationRegionsRegionDescriptionPAZNRCSONGS12345R012 MileRadius2 MileRadiusxR025 MileRadius5 MileRadiusxxxxR03FullEPZFullEPZxxxxxEvacuate2 MileRadiusandDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionTowardsPAZNRCSONGS12345R04NW,NNW,NP,Q,R,A,BxxR05NNExxxR06NE,ENE,E,ESEC,D,E,F,GxxR07SExxxR08SSE,S,SSW,SW,WSW,WH,J,K,L,M,NxxR09WNWxxxEvacuate5 MileRadiusandDownwindto10MilesRegionWindDirectionTowardsPAZNRCSONGS12345N/AWNW,NW,NNW,NRefertoR03N/ANNE,NE,ENE,E,ESE,SE,SSE,S,SSW,SW,WSW,WRefertoR02Evacuate2 MileRadiusandDownwindto10MilesRegionWindDirectionTowardsPAZNRCSONGS12345R10NW,NNW,NP,Q,R,A,BxxxN/ANNERefertoR05N/ANE,ENE,E,ESEC,D,E,F,GRefertoR06N/ASE,SSERefertoR07N/AS,SSW,SW,WSW,WH,J,K,L,M,NRefertoR08R11WNWxxxxStagedEvacuation2 MileRadiusEvacuates,thenEvacuateDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionTowardsPAZNRCSONGS12345R12NW,NNW,NP,Q,R,A,BxxR13NNExxxR14NE,ENE,E,ESEC,D,E,F,GxxR15SExxxR16SSE,S,SSW,SW,WSW,WH,J,K,L,M,NxxR17WNWxxxR185 MileRegionxxxxSONGSSpecificEvacuationRegionsRegionDescriptionPAZ12345R19EvacuatePAZ5OnlyxR20Evacuate1,ShelterthenEvacuate2,3,4,5xxxxxR21Evacuate1,2,3,4,ShelterthenEvacuate5xxxxxPAZ(s)Shelter in Placeuntil90%ETEforUn stagedRegion,thenEvacuatePAZ(s)Shelter in PlacePAZ(s)Evacuate SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation7 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 1.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation7 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 2.SONGSShadowRegion SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation7 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 3.CongestionPatternsat30MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation7 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 4.CongestionPatternsat1HouraftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation7 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 5.CongestionPatternsat2HoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation7 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 6.CongestionPatternsat3HoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation7 24KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 7.CongestionPatternsat4HoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation7 25KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 8.CongestionPatternsat6HoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation7 26KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 9.CongestionPatternsat6Hours,20MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation7 27KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure710.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario1forRegionR03Figure711.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario2forRegionR030 20 40 60 80100120 1400306090120150180210240270300330360390420450480510540570600 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Midweek,Midday,Good(Scenario1)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 20 40 60 80100 120 1400306090120150180210240270300330360390420450480510540570600 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario2)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation7 28KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure712.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario3forRegionR03Figure713.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario4forRegionR030 20 40 60 80100 1200306090120150180210240270300330360390420450480510540570600 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Weekend,Midday,Good(Scenario3)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 20 40 60 80100 120 1400306090120150180210240270300330360390420450480510540570600 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario4)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation7 29KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure714.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario5forRegionR03Figure715.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario6forRegionR030 20 40 60 80100120 1400306090120150180210240270300330360390420450480510540570600 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,Good(Scenario5)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 20 40 60 80100 120 1400306090120150180210240270300330360390420450480510540570600 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Midweek,Midday,Good(Scenario6)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation7 30KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure716.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario7forRegionR03Figure717.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario8forRegionR030 20 40 60 80100 120 1400306090120150180210240270300330360390420450480510540570600 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario7)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 20 40 60 801001201400306090120150180210240270300330360390420450480510540570600 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Weekend,Midday,Good(Scenario8)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation7 31KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure718.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario9forRegionR03Figure719.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario10forRegionR030 20 40 60 80100 120 1400306090120150180210240270300330360390420450480510540570600 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario9)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 20 40 60 801001201400306090120150180210240270300330360390420450480510540570600 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,Good(Scenario10)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation7 32KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure720.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario11forRegionR03Figure721.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario12forRegionR030 20 40 60 801001201401601802000306090120150180210240270300330360390420450480510540570600 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Weekend,Midday,Good,SpecialEvent(Scenario11)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 20 40 60 80100 120 1400306090120150180210240270300330360390420450480510540570600 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Midweek,Midday,Good,RoadwayImpact(Scenario12)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation7 33KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure722.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario13forRegionR030 20 40 60 80100 120 140020040060080010001200 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Midweek,Midday,Good,Earthquake(Scenario13)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation8 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.18 TRANSIT DEPENDENTANDSPECIALFACILITYEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATESThissectiondetailstheanalysesappliedandtheresultsobtainedintheformofevacuationtimeestimatesfortransitvehicles.Thedemandfortransitservicereflectstheneedsofthreepopulationgroups:(1)residentswithnovehiclesavailable;(2)residentsofspecialfacilitiessuchasschools,medica lfacilities;and(3)registeredpeoplewithdisabilitiesandotherswithaccessandfunctionalneeds.Thesetransitvehiclesmixwiththegeneralevacuationtrafficthatiscomprisedmostlyof"passengercars"(pc's).ThepresenceofeachtransitvehicleintheevacuatingtrafficstreamisrepresentedwithinthemodelingparadigmdescribedinAppendixDasequivalenttotwopc's.Thisequivalencefactorrepresentsthelongersizeandmoresluggishoperatingcharacteristicsofatransitvehicle,relativetothoseofapc.Transitvehiclesmustbemobilizedinpreparationfortheirrespectiveevacuationmissions.Specifically:* Busdriversmustbealerted* Theymusttraveltothebusdepot* Theymustbebriefedthereandassignedtoarouteorfacilit yTheseactivitiesconsumetime.Basedondiscussionwiththeoffsiteagencies,itisestimatedthatbusmobilizationtimewillaverageapproximately90minutesextendingfromtheAdvisorytoEvacuate,tothetimewhenbusesfirstarriveatthefacilitytobeevacuated.Duringthismobilizationperiod,othermobilizat ionactivitiesaretakingplace.Oneoftheseistheactiontakenbyparents,neighbors,relativesandfriendstopickupchildrenfromschoolpriortothearrivalofbuses,sothattheymayjointh eirfamilies.Virtuallyallstudiesofevacuationshaveconcludedthatthis"bonding"processofunitingfamiliesisuniversallyprevalentduringemergenciesandshouldbeanticipatedintheplanningprocess.ThecurrentpublicinformationdisseminatedtoresidentsoftheSONGSEPZindicatesthatschoolchildrenmaybeevacuatedtoreceptioncentersatemergencyactionlevelsofSiteAreaEmergencyorhigher.AsdiscussedinSection2,thisstudyassumesafastbreakinggeneralemergency.Therefore,childrenareevacuatedtoreceptioncenters.Pickingupchildrenatschoolcouldaddtotrafficcongestionattheschools,delayingthedepartureofthebusesevacuatingschoolchildren,whichmayhavetoreturninasubsequent"wave"totheEPZtoevacuatethetransit dependentpopulation.Thisreportprovidesestimatesofbusesundertheassumptionthatnochil drenwillbepickedupbytheirparents(inaccordancewithNUREG/CR 7002),topresentanupperboundestimateofbusesrequired.ItisassumedthatchildrenatdaycarecentersarepickedupbyparentsorguardiansandthatthetimetoperformthisactivityisincludedinthetripgenerationtimesdiscussedinSection5.Theprocedureforcomputingtransit dependentETEisto:* Estimatedemandfortransitservice* Estimatetimetoperformalltransitfunctions SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation8 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1* EstimateroutetraveltimestotheEPZboundaryandtothereceptioncenters8.1 TransitDependentPeopleDemandEstimateThetelephonesurvey(seeAppendixF)resultswereusedtoestimatetheportionofthepopulationrequiringtransitservice:* Thosepersonsinhouseholdsthatdonothaveavehicleavailable.* Thosepersonsinhouseholdsthatdohavevehicle(s)thatwouldnotbeavailabl eatthetimetheevacuationisadvised.Inthelattergroup,thevehicle(s)maybeusedbyacommuter(s)whodoesnotreturn(orisnotexpectedtoreturn)hometoevacuatethehousehold.Table8 1presentsestimatesoftransit dependentpeople.Note:* Estimatesofpersonsrequiringtransitvehiclesincludeschoolchildren.Forthoseevacuationscenarioswherechildrenareatschoolwhenanevacuationisordered,separatetransportationisprovidedfortheschoolchildren.Theactualneedfortransitvehiclesbyresidentsistherebylessthanthegivenestimates.However,estimatesoftransitvehiclesarenotreducedwhenschoolsareinsession.* Itisreasonableandappropriatetoconsiderthatmanytransit dependentpersonswillevacuatebyride sharingwithneighbors,friendsorfamily.Forexample,nearly80percentofthosewhoevacuatedfromMississauga,Ontariowhodidnotusetheirowncars,sharedarid ewithneighborsorfriends.Otherdocumentsreportthatapproximately70percentoftransitdependentpersonswereevacuatedviaridesharing.Wewilladoptaconservativeestimatethat50percentoftransitdependentpersonswillrideshare,inaccordancewithNUREG/CR 7002.Theestimatednumberofbustripsneededtoservicetransit dependentpersonsisbasedonanestimateofaveragebusoccupancyof30personsattheconclusionofthebusrun.Transi tvehicleseatingcapacitiestypicallyequalorexceed60childrenonaverage(roughlyequivalentto40adults).Iftransitvehicleevacueesaretwothirdsadultsandonethirdchildren,thenthenumberof"adultseats"takenby30personsis20+(2/3x10)=27.Onthisbasis,theaverageloadfactoranticipatedis(27/40)x100=68percent.Thus,iftheactualdemandforserviceexceedstheestimatesofTable8 1by50percent,th edemandforservicecanstillbeaccommodatedbytheavailablebusseatingcapacity.Table8 1indicatesthattransportationmustbeprovidedfor4,514people.Therefore,atotalof151busrunsarerequiredtotransportthispopulationtoreceptioncenters.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation8 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Toillustratethisestimationprocedure,wecalculatethenumberofpersons,P,requiringpublictransitorride share,andthenumberofbuses,B,requiredfortheSONGSEPZ:Where,A=PercentofhouseholdswithcommutersC=Percentofhouseholdswhowillnotawaitthereturnofacommuter Thesecalculationsareexplainedasfollows:* Allmembers(1.67avg.)ofhouseholds(HH)withnovehicles(2.4%)willevacuatebypublictransitorride share.Theterm58,311(numberofhouseholds)x0.024x1.67,accountsforthesepeople.* ThemembersofHHwith1vehicleaway(26.2%),whoareathome,equal(1.72 1).ThenumberofHHwherethecomm uterwillnotreturnhomeisequalto(58,311x0.262x0.57x0.64),as57%ofEPZhouseholdshaveacommuter,64%ofwhichwouldnotreturnhomeintheeventofanemergency.Thenumberofpersonswhowillevacuatebypublictransitorride shareisequaltotheproductofthesetwoterms.* ThemembersofHHwith2vehiclesthatareaway(46.0%),whoareathome,equal(2.75-2).ThenumberofHHwhereneithercommuterwillreturnhomeisequalto58,311x0.460x(0.57x0.64)2.Thenumberofpersonswhowillevacuatebypublictransitorride shareisequaltotheproductofthesetwoterms(thelasttermissquaredtorepresenttheprobabilitythatneithercommuterwillreturn).* Householdswith3ormorevehiclesareassumedtohavenoneedfortransitvehicles.* ThetotalnumberofpersonsrequiringpublictransitisthesumofsuchpeopleinHHwithnovehi cles,orwith1or2vehiclesthatareawayfromhome.Theestimateoftransit dependentpopulationinTable8 1farexceedsthenumberofregisteredtransit dependentpersonsintheEPZasprovidedbyOrangeCounty(discussedbelowinSection8.5).ThisisconsistentwiththefindingsofNUREG/CR 6953,Volume2,inthatala rgemajorityofthetransit dependentpopulationwithintheEPZsofU.S.nuclearplantsdoesnotregisterwiththeirlocalemergencyresponseagency.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation8 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.18.2 SchoolPopulation-TransitDemandTable8 2presentstheschoolpopulationandtransportationrequirementsforthedirectevacuationofallschoolswithintheEPZforthe2011 2012schoolyear.ThisinformationwasprovidedbytheCapistranoUnifiedSchoolDistrict,aswellasOrangeCounty.Privateschoolsandchildcarefacilitiesareassumedtobetransitdependent.Privateschoolsandchildcarefacilitiesmayrelyonparentpickup,privatetransportationresources,and/ortransportationassemblypointstorelocatechildrenandstaff.ThecolumninTable8 2entitled"BusesRequired"specifiesthenumberofbusesrequiredforeachschoolunderthefollowingsetofassumption sandestimates:* Nostudentswillbepickedupbytheirparentspriortothearrivalofthebuses.* Whilemanyhighschoolstudentscommutetoschoolusingprivateautomobiles(asdiscussedinSection2.4ofNUREG/CR 7002),theestimateofbusesrequiredforschoolevacuationdono tconsidertheuseoftheseprivatevehicles.* Buscapacity,expressedinstudentsperbus,issetto70forprimaryschoolsand50formiddleandhighschools.* Thosestaffmemberswhodonotaccompanythestudentswillevacuateintheirprivatevehicles.* Noallowanceismadeforstudentabsenteeism,typically3percentdaily.ItisrecommendedthatthemunicipalitiesintheEPZintroduceprocedureswherebytheschoolsarecontactedpriortothedispatchofbusesfromthedepot,toascertainthecurrentestimateofstudentstobeevacuated.Inthisway,thenumberofbusesdispatchedtotheschoolswillreflecttheactualnumberneeded.Theneedforbuseswouldbereducedbyanyhighschoolstudentswhohaveevacuatedusingprivateautomobiles(ifpermittedbyschoolauthorities).Thosebusesoriginallyallocatedtoevacuateschoolchildrenthatarenotneededduetochildrenbeingpickedupbytheirparents,canbegainfullyassignedtoserviceotherfacilitiesorthosepersonswhodonothaveaccesstoprivatevehiclesortoride sharing.Table8 3presentsalistofthereceptioncentersforeachschoolintheEPZ.Studentswillbetransportedtothesereceptioncenterswheretheywillbesubsequentlyretrievedbytheirrespectivefamilies.8.3 MedicalFacilityDemandTable8 4presentsthecensusofmedicalfacilitiesintheEPZ.913peoplehavebeenidentifiedaslivingin,orbeingtreatedin,thesefacilities.ThecapacityandcurrentcensusforeachfacilitywereprovidedbyOrangeCountyandtheindiv idualmunicipalitieswithintheEPZ.Thisdataalsoincludesthenumberofambulatory,wheelchair boundandbedriddenpatientsforaportionofthesefacilitieswhichprovideddata.Theaveragedistributionofambulatory,wheelchairboundandbedriddenpatientsforthoseprovidedwereappliedtotheremainingfacilitieswhichdidnotprovidedetaileddata.ThetransportationrequirementsforthemedicalfacilitypopulationarealsopresentedinTable8 4.Thenumberofambulancerunsisdeterminedbyassumingthat2patientscanbe SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation8 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1accommodatedperambulancetrip;thenumberofbusrunsestimatedassumes30ambulatorypatientspertripand3wheelchairboundpersonspertrip.8.4 EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTransitDependentPeopleEPZbusresourcesareassignedtoevacuatingschoolchildren(ifschoolisinsessionatthetimeoftheATE)asthefirstpriorityinth eeventofanemergency.Intheeventthattheallocationofbusesdispatchedfromthedepotstothevariousfacilitiesandtothebusroutesissomewhat"inefficient",orifthereisashortfallofavailabledrivers,thentheremaybeaneedforsomebusestoreturntotheEPZfromthereceptioncenteraftercompletingtheirfirstevacuationtrip,tocompletea"secondwave"ofprovidingtransportservicetoevacuees.Forthisreason,theETEforthetransit dependentpopulationwillbecalculatedforbothaonewavetransitevacuationandfortwowaves.Ofcourse,iftheimpactedEvacuationRegionisotherthanR03(theentireEPZ),thentherewilllikelybeampletransitresourcesrelativetodemandintheimpactedRegionandthisdiscussionofasecondwavewouldlikelynotapply.Whenschoolevacuationneedsaresatisfied,subsequentassignmentsofbusestoservicethetransit dependentpopulationshouldbesensitivetotheirmobilizationtime.Clearly,thebusesshouldbedispatchedafterpeoplehavecompletedtheirmobilizationactivitiesandareinapositiontoboardthebuseswhentheyarriveatthepick uppoints.EvacuationTimeEstimatesfortransittripsweredevelopedusingbothg oodweatherandrain.Figure8 1presentsthechronologyofeventsrelevanttotransitoperations.TheelapsedtimeforeachactivitywillnowbediscussedwithreferencetoFigure8 1.Activity:MobilizeDrivers(A B C)MobilizationistheelapsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateuntilthetimethebusesarriveatthefacilitytobeevacuated.Basedondiscussionswiththeoffsiteagencies,schoolbusdriverswouldrequire90minutestobecontacted,totraveltothedepot,bebriefed,andtotraveltothetransit dependentfacilities.Mobilizationtimeisslightlylongerinadverseweather-100minuteswhenraining.Activity:BoardPassengers(C D)Basedondiscussionswithoffsiteagencies,aloadingtimeof15minutes(20minutesforrain)forschoolbusesisused.Formultiplestopsalongapick uproute(transit dependentbusroutes)estimationoftraveltimemustallowforthedelayassociatedwithstoppingandstartingateachpick uppoint.Thetime,t,requiredforabustodecelerateatarate,"a",expressedinft/sec/sec,fromaspeed,"v",expressedinft/sec,toastop,ist=v/a.Assumingthesameaccelerationrateandfinalspeedfollowingthestopyieldsatotaltime,T,toserviceboardingpassengers:,WhereB=Dwelltimetoservicepassengers.Thetotaldistance,"s"infeet,travelledduringthedecelerationandaccelerationactivitiesis:s=v 2/a.Ifthebushadnotstoppedtoservice SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation8 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1passengers,buthadcontinuedtotravelatspeed,v,thenitstraveltimeoverthedistance,s,wouldbe:s/v=v/a.Thenthetotaldelay(i.e.pickuptime,P)toservicepassengersis:Assigningreasonableestimates:* B=50seconds:agenerousvalueforasinglepassenger,carryingpersonalitems,toboardperstop* v=25mph=37ft/sec* a=4ft/sec/sec,amoderateaveragerateThen,P1minuteperstop.Allowing30minutespick uptimeperbusrunimplies30st opsperrun,forgoodweather.Itisassumedthatbusaccelerationandspeedwillbelessinrain;totalloadingtimeis40minutesperbusinrain.Activity:TraveltoEPZBoundary(D E)SchoolEvacuationTransportationresourcesavailablewereprovidedbyOrangeCountyandMCBandaresummarizedinTable8 5.Alsoincludedinthetablearethenumberofbusesneededtoevacuateschools,medicalfacilities,transit dependentpopulation,andregisteredpeoplewithdisabilitiesandotherswithaccessandfunctionalneeds(discussedbelowinSection8.5).Thesenumbersindicatetherearesufficientresourcesavailabletoevacuateev eryoneinasinglewave.Thebusesservicingtheschoolsarereadytobegintheirevacuationtripsat105minutesaftertheadvisorytoevacuate-90minutesmobilizationtimeplus15minutesloadingtime-ingoodweather.TheUNITESsoftwarediscussedinSection1.3wasusedtodefinebusrout esalongthemostlikelypathfromaschoolbeingevacuatedtotheEPZboundary,travelingtowardtheappropriateschoolreceptioncenter.ThisisdoneinUNITESbyinteractivelyselectingtheseriesofnodesfromtheschooltotheEPZboundary.Eachbusrouteisgivenanidentificationnumberandiswrittentoth eDYNEVIIinputstream.DYNEVcomputestheroutelengthandoutputstheaveragespeedforeach5minuteinterval,foreachbusroute.ThespecifiedbusroutesaredocumentedinTable8 6(refertothemapsofthelink nodeanalysisnetworkinAppendixKfornodelocations).DataprovidedbyDYNEVduringtheappropriatetimeframedependingonthemobilizationandloadingtimes(i.e.,100to105minutesaftertheadvisorytoevacuateforgoodweather)wereusedtocomputetheaveragespeedforeachroute,asfollows:

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation8 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Theaveragespeedcomputed(usingthismethodology)forthebusesservicingeachoftheschoolsintheEPZisshowninTable8 7andTable8 8forschoolevacuation,andinTable8 10andTable8 11forthetransitvehiclesevacuatingtransit dependentpersons,whicharediscussedlater.ThetraveltimetotheEPZboundarywascomputedforeachbususingthecomputedaveragespeedandthedi stancetotheEPZboundaryalongthemostlikelyrouteoutoftheEPZ.ThetraveltimefromtheEPZboundarytothereceptioncenterwascomputedassuminganaveragespeedof45mphand40mphforgoodweatherandrain,respectively.SpeedswerereducedinTable8 7andTable8 8andinTable8 10andTable8 11to55mph(50mphforrain-10%decrease,roundedtothenearest5mph)forthosecalculat edbusspeedswhichexceed55mph(50mphforrain),astheschoolbusspeedlimitforstateroutesinCaliforniais55mph.Table8 7(goodweather)andTable8 8(rain)presentthefollowingevacuationtimeestimates(roundeduptothenearest5minutes)forschoolsintheEPZ:(1)Theel apsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateuntilthebusexitstheEPZ;and(2)Theelapsedtimeuntilthebusreachesthereceptioncenter.TheevacuationtimeoutoftheEPZcanbecomputedasthesumoftimesassociatedwithActivitiesA B C,C D,andD E(Forexample:90min.+15+76=3:05forBerniceAy erMiddleSchool,withgoodweather).TheevacuationtimetothereceptioncenterisdeterminedbyaddingthetimeassociatedwithActivityE F(discussedbelow),tothisEPZevacuationtime.TheaverageETEforschoolsisconsiderablylessthanthe90 thpercentilegeneralpopulationETEforanevacuationoftheentireEPZ.EvacuationofTransit DependentPopulationThebusesdispatchedfromthedepotstoservicethetransit dependentevacueeswillbescheduledsothattheyarriveattheirrespectiveroutesaftertheirpassengershavecompletedtheirmobilization.AsshowninFigure5 4(ResidentswithnoCommuters),approximately90percentoftheevacueeswillcompletetheirmobilizationwhenthebuseswillbegintheirroutes,105minutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate.Thestartofserviceontheseroutesisseparatedby10minuteheadways,asshowninTable8 10andTable8 11.Theuseofbusheadwaysensuresthatthosepeoplewhotakelongertomobilizewillbepickedup.Mobilizationtimeis10minuteslongerinraintoaccountforslowertravelspeedsandreducedroadwayca pacity.Thosebusesservicingthetransit dependentevacueeswillfirsttravelalongtheirpick uproutes,thenproceedoutoftheEPZ.TransportationAssemblyPoints(TAPs)areestablished SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation8 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1throughouttheEPZ.Evacueesaremadeawareoftheselocationsviathepublicinformationsystemandemergencybroadcasts.ThecountyemergencyplansdonotdefinebusroutestoservicetheseTAPs.The15busroutesshowngraphicallyinFigure8 2throughFigure8 4anddescribedinTable8 9weredesignedaspartofthisstudytoservicetheTAPsoutlinedinthemunicipalemergencyplans.Itisassumedthatresidentswillwalktoandcongregateatthesepre designatedTAPs,andthattheycanarrivewithinthe105minutebusmobili zationtime(goodweather).Aspreviouslydiscussed,apickuptimeof30minutes(goodweather)isestimatedfor30individualstopstopickuppassengers,withanaverageofoneminuteofdelayassociatedwitheachstop.Alongerpickuptimeof40minutesisusedforrain.Thetraveldistancealongtherespectivepick uprouteswithintheEPZisestimatedusingtheUNITESsoft ware.BustraveltimeswithintheEPZarecomputedusingaveragespeedscomputedbyDYNEV,usingtheaforementionedmethodologythatwasusedforschoolevacuation.Table8 10andTable8 11presentthetransit dependentpopulationevacuationtimeestimatesforeachbusroutecalculatedusingtheaboveproceduresforgoodweatherandrain.Forexample,theETEforbuses1and2servicingRoute40iscomputedas105+27+30=2:45forgoodweather(roundeduptonearest5minutes).Here,27minutesisthetimetotravel20.9milesat46.4mph,theaveragesp eedoutputbythemodelforthisroutestartingat105minutes.TheETEforasecondwave(discussedbelow)ispresentedintheeventthereisashortfallofavailablebusesorbusdrivers,aspreviouslydiscussed.Activity:TraveltoReceptionCenters(E F)ThedistancesfromtheEPZboundarytothereceptioncentersaremeasuredusingGISsoftwarealongthemostlikelyroutefromtheEPZexitpointtothereceptioncenter.ThereceptioncentersaremappedinFigure10 1.Foraonewaveevacuation,thistraveltimeoutsidetheEPZdoesnotcontributetotheETE.Foratwo waveevacuation,theETEforbusesmustbeconsideredseparately,sinceitcouldexceedtheETEforthegeneralpublic.Assumedbusspeedsof45mphforgoodweatherand40mphforrainwillbeappliedforthisactivityforbusesservicingthetransit dependentpopulation.Activity:PassengersLeaveBus(F G)Abuscanemptywithin5minutes.Thedrivertakesa10minutebreak.Activity:BusReturnstoRouteforSecondWaveEvacuation(G C)ThebusesassignedtoreturntotheEPZtoperforma"secondwave"evacuationoftransit dependentevacueeswillbethosethathavealreadyevacuatedtransit dependentpeoplewhomobilizedmorequickly.Thefirstwaveoftransit dependentpeopledepartthebus,andthebusthenreturnstotheEPZ,travelstoitsrouteandproceedstopickupmor etransit dependentevacueesalongtheroute.ThetraveltimebacktotheEPZisequaltothetraveltimetothereceptioncenter.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation8 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Thesecond waveETEforbuses1and2servicingRoute40iscomputedasfollowsforgoodweather:* Busarrivesatreceptioncenterat2:52ingoodweather(2:45toexitEPZ+7minutetraveltimetoreceptioncenter).* Busdischargespassengers(5minutes)anddrivertakesa10 mi nuterest:15minutes.* BusreturnstoEPZandcompletessecondroute:34minutes(traveltimetoreceptioncenter+traveltimetothestartoftheroute)+23minutes(20.9miles@55.0mph)=57minutes* Buscompletespick upsalongroute:30minutes.* BusexitsEP Zattime2:45+0:07+0:15+0:57+0:30=4:35(roundedtonearest5minutes)aftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate.TheETEforthecompletionofthesecondwaveforalltransit dependentbusroutesareprovidedinTable8 10andTable8 11.TheaverageonewaveETEforthetransit dependentpopulationisconsiderablyle ssthanthe90 thpercentilegeneralpopulationETEforanevacuationoftheentireEPZ.TheaverageETEforatwowaveevacuationoftransit dependentpeopleexceedstheETEforthegeneralpopulationatthe90 thpercentileforanevacuationoftheentireEPZ.Therelocationoftransit dependentevacueesfromthereceptioncenterstocongregatecarecenters,ifOrangeCountyandMCBdecidetodoso,isnotconsideredinthisstudy.EvacuationofMedicalFacilitiesTheevacuationofthesefacilitiesissimilartoschoolevacuationexcept:* Busesareassignedonthebasisof30ambulatoryand3wheelchairboundpatientstoallowforstafftoaccompanythepatients.Ambulancescanaccommodate2patients.* Loadingtimesof1minute,5minutes,and15minutesperpatientareassumedforambulatorypatients,wheelchairboundpatients,andbedriddenpatients,respectively.Table8 4indicatesthat89busrunsand55ambulancerunsareneededtoserviceallofthemedicalfacilitiesintheEPZ.AccordingtoTable8 5,MCB,themunicipalitiesandOrangeCountycancollectivelyprovide1,082bu ses,36vans,33wheelchairaccessiblevansand539ambulances.Thus,therearesufficientresourcestoevacuatetheambulatory,wheelchairboundandbedriddenpersonsfromthemedicalfacilitiesinasinglewave.Asisdonefortheschools,itisestimatedthatmobilizationtimeaverages90minutes.Speciallytrainedmedicalsupportstaff(workingtheirregularshift)willbeonsitetoassistintheevacuationofpatients.Additionalstaff(ifneeded)couldbemobilizedoverthissame90minutetimeframe.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation8 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 12andTable8 13summarizetheETEformedicalfacilitieswithintheEPZforgoodweatherandrain.AveragespeedsoutputbythemodelforScenario6(Scenario7forrain)Region3,cappedat55mph(50mphforrain),areusedtocomputetraveltimetoEPZboundary.Thetraveltimetoth eEPZboundaryiscomputedbydividingthedistancetotheEPZboundarybytheaveragetravelspeed.TheETEisthesumofthemobilizationtime,totalpassengerloadingtime,andtraveltimeoutoftheEPZ.Concurrentloadingonmultiplebuses,wheelchairbuses/vans,andambulancesatcapa cityisassumedsuchthatthemaximumloadingtimesforbusesandambulancesare45and30minutes,respectively.AllETEareroundedtothenearest5minutes.Forexample,thecalculationofETEfortheSaddlebackMemorialMedicalCenterwith43ambulatoryand29wheelchairboundresidentsduringgoodweatheris:ETE:90+45+54=189min.or3:10roundedtotheneares t5minutes.TheaverageETEformedicalfacilitiesisconsiderablylessthanthe90 thpercentilegeneralpopulationETEforanevacuationoftheentireEPZ.Itisassumedthatmedicalfacilitypopulationisdirectlyevacuatedtoappropriatehostmedicalfacilities.Relocationofthispopulationtopermanentfacilitiesand/orpassingthroughthereceptioncenterbeforearrivingatthehostfacilityarenotconsideredinthisanalysis.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation8 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.18.5 RegisteredPeoplewithDisabilitiesandOtherswithAccessandFunctionalNeedsThecountyemergencymanagementagencieshaveacombinedregistrationfortransit dependentsandpeoplewithdisabilitiesandotherswithaccessandfunctionalneeds.BasedondataprovidedbyOrangeCounty,thereareanestimated259registeredpeoplewithdisabilitiesandotherswithaccessandfunctionalneedswithinEPZwhorequiretransportationassistancetoevacuate.The259peopleconsistof129ambulatorypersons,130wheelchair boundpersonsand0bedriddenpersons.All259peopleresideintheOrangeCountyportionoftheEPZ.ETEforRegisteredPeoplewithDisabilitiesandOtherswithAccessandFunctionalNeedsTable8 14summarizestheETEforregisteredpeoplewithdisabilitiesandotherswithaccessandfunctionalneeds.Thetableiscategorizedbytypeofvehiclerequiredandthenbrokendownbyweathercondition.Thetabletakesintoconsiderationthedeploymentofmultiplevehiclestoreducethenumberofstopspervehicle.Itisconservativelyassumedthatambulatoryandwheelchairboundspecialneedshouseholdsarespaced3milesapart.Busspeedsapproximate20mphbetweenhouseholds(10%slowerinrain).Mobilizationtimesof90minuteswereused(100minutesforrain).ThelastHHisassumedtobe5milesfromtheEPZboundary,andthenetwork wideaveragespeed,capp edat55mph(50mphforrain),afterthelastpickupisusedtocomputetraveltime.ETEiscomputedbysummingmobilizationtime,loadingtimeatfirsthousehold,traveltosubsequenthouseholds,loadingtimeatsubsequenthouseholds,andtraveltimetoEPZboundary.AllETEareroundedtothenearest5minutes.Forexample,assumingnomorethanonespecialneedspersonperHHimpliesthat259householdsneedtobeserviced.If44busesaredeployedtoservicethesespecialneedsHH,theneachwouldrequireabout6stops.ThefollowingoutlinestheETEcalculations:1. Assume44busesaredeployed,eachwithabout6st ops,toserviceatotalof259HH.2. TheETEiscalculatedasfollows:a. Busesarriveatthefirstpickuplocation:90minutesb. LoadHHmembersatfirstpickup:5minutesc. Traveltosubsequentpickuplocations:5@9m inutes=45minutesd. LoadHHmembersatsubsequentpickuplocations:5@5minutes=25minutese. TraveltoEPZboundary:23minutes(5miles@13.2mph).ETE:90+5+45+25+23=3:10roundedtothenearest5minutes SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation8 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Event AAdvisorytoEvacuate BBusDispatchedfromDepot CBusArrivesatFacility/Pick upRoute DBusDepartsforReceptionCenter EBusExitsRegion FBusArrivesatReceptionCenter/HostFacilityGBusAvailablefor"SecondWave"EvacuationService Activity A B DriverMobilization B C TraveltoFacilityortoPick upRoute C D PassengersBoardtheBus D E BusTravelsTowardsRegionBoundary E F BusTravelsTowardsReceptionCenterOutsidetheEPZ F G PassengersLeaveBus;DriverTakesaBreakFigure8 1.ChronologyofTransitEvacuationOperationsA B C D E F G Time(SubsequentWave)

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation8 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure8 2.Transit DependentBusRoutesinPAZ4 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation8 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure8 3.Transit DependentBusRoutesinPAZ5 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation8 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure8 4.Transit DependentBusRoutesinPAZs1and3 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation8 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 1.TransitDependentPopulationEstimates2010EPZPopulationSurveyAverageHHSizewithIndicatedNo.ofVehiclesEstimatedNo.ofHouseholds SurveyPercentHHwithIndicatedNo.ofVehiclesSurveyPercentHH withCommuters SurveyPercentHH withNon ReturningCommuters TotalPeopleRequiringTransportEstimatedRidesharingPercentagePeopleRequiring PublicTransitPercentPopulationRequiring PublicTransit012012153,3571.671.722.7558,3112.4%26.2%46.0%57%64%9,02750%4,5142.9%

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation8 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 2.SchoolPopulationDemandEstimatesPAZSchool/DaycareNameLocalEnrollment BusesRequiredPrivateSchools4OurLadyofFatimaSchool28554OurSavior'sLutheranSchool26054St.Michael'sChristianAcademy15535BroderickMontessoriSchool7025CapistranoHomeSchool2015CapistranoValleyChristianSchools49295CapoBeachCalvary22545JserraCatholicHighSchool925195MissionParishSchool32065MonarchBayMontessoriAcademy12025RanchoCapistranoSchool6625SaddlebackValleyChristianSchool590105SanJuanMontessori4515SouthShoresChristianSchool5615StEdwardSchool750135St.Margaret'sEpiscopalSchool1222215StonebridgeDaySchool4515StoneybrookeChristianSchools4438PublicSchools1SanOnofreSchool758111SanOnofreYouthCenter11434BerniceAyerMiddleSchool885184ClarenceLoboElementarySchool46374ConcordiaElementarySchool646104LasPalmasElementarySchool751114MarbleheadElementarySchool57794SanClementeHighSchool2982604ShorecliffsMiddleSchool1061224TrumanBenedictElementarySchool694104VistaDelMarElementarySchool1137174VistaDelMarMiddleSchool522115AmbuehlElementarySchool55885DanaHillsHighSchool2788565DelObispoElementarySchool46775KinoshitaElementarySchool6309 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation8 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1PAZSchool/DaycareNameLocalEnrollment BusesRequired5MarcoForsterMiddleSchool1444295PalisadesElementarySchool51085RichardHenryDanaElementarySchool37665RichardHenryDanaExceptionalNeedsSchool4815SanJuanElementarySchool665105SanJuanHillsHighSchool655145SerraHighSchool1754SchoolSubtotal: 24,995454Preschools/Daycares1SanOnofreChildDevelopmentCenter19034BrightHorizonsatSanClemente14434ClarenceLobo10024ConcordiaElementarySchool2414KindercareLearningCenter12824LaCristianitaPreschool8524LasPalmasStatePreschool4814MarbleheadElementarySchool1614OurSavior'sLutheranPreschool6014PalisadesUnitedMethodistPreschool8024SanClementePresbyterianPreschool7924SanClementePreschool7524SerraPreschool2414St.Michael'sInfant/ToddlerCenter5814TalegaLifeChurchPreschool7015BroderickMontessoriSchool,Inc3015CapistranoBeachCitiesYMCA DelObispo9025CapoBeachCalvary5015CapoValleyHeadStart6015ChildbridgePreschool4815DanaMontessoriSchool3715DanaPointMontessori3615EvelynLoboVillegasHeadStart4015GloriaDeiLutheranPreschool5415KinoshitaElementarySchool2415LittleMindsMontessoriAcademy7525MissionParishSchool2515MonarchBayMontessoriAcademy902 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation8 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1PAZSchool/DaycareNameLocalEnrollment BusesRequired5OhanaPreschool4515PalisadesElementarySchool2415RichardHenryDanaElementarySchool2415SanJuanMontessori4515SouthShoresChristianPreschool8625StEdward'sCatholicPreschool7225St.Margaret'sEpiscopalSchool9025StoneybrookeChristianSchools601Preschool/DaycareSubtotal: 2,28652TOTAL: 27,281506 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation8 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 3.SchoolReceptionCentersSchoolReception&DecontaminationCenterSanOnofreChildDevelopmentCenterDelMarAreaFitnessCenter(MCB)SanOnofreSchoolSanOnofreYouthCenterBerniceAyerMiddleSchoolOrangeCountyFairgroundsBrightHorizonsatSanClementeClarenceLoboClarenceLoboElementarySchoolConcordiaElementarySchoolKindercareLearningCenterLaCristianitaPreschoolLasPalmasElementarySchoolLasPalmasStatePreschoolMarbleheadElementarySchoolOurLadyofFatimaSchoolOurSavior'sLutheranPreschoolOurSavior'sLutheranSchoolPalisadesUnitedMethodistPreschoolSanClementeHighSchoolSanClementePresbyterianPreschoolSanClementePreschoolSerraPreschoolShorecliffsMiddleSchoolSt.Michael'sInfant/ToddlerCenterSt.Michael'sChristianAcademyTalegaLifeChurchPreschoolTrumanBenedictElementarySchoolVistaDelMarElementarySchoolVistaDelMarMiddleSchoolAmbuehlElementarySchoolBroderickMontessoriSchoolBroderickMontessoriSchool,IncCapistranoBeachCitiesYMCA DelObispoCapistranoHomeSchoolCapistranoValleyChristianSchoolsCapoBeachCalvaryCapoValleyHeadStartChildbridgePreschool SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation8 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolReception&DecontaminationCenterDanaHillsHighSchoolOrangeCountyFairgroundsDanaMontessoriSchoolDanaPointMontessoriDelObispoElementarySchoolEvelynLoboVillegasHeadStartGloriaDeiLutheranPreschoolJserraCatholicHighSchoolKinoshitaElementarySchoolLittleMindsMontessoriAcademyMarcoForsterMiddleSchoolMissionParishSchoolMonarchBayMontessoriAcademyOhanaPreschoolPalisadesElementarySchoolRanchoCapistranoSchoolRichardHenryDanaElementarySchoolRichardHenryDanaExceptionalNeedsSchoolSaddlebackValleyChristianSchoolSanJuanElementarySchoolSanJuanHillsHighSchoolSanJuanMontessoriSerraHighSchoolSouthShoresChristianPreschoolSouthShoresChristianSchoolStEdwardSchoolStEdward'sCatholicPreschoolSt.Margaret'sEpiscopalSchoolStonebridgeDaySchoolStoneybrookeChristianSchools

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation8 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 4.MedicalFacilityTransitDemandPAZFacilityNameMunicipalityCapacityCurrentCensusAmbulatoryWheelchairBoundBedriddenBusRunsAmbulance OrangeCountyMedicalFacilities4AccentonSeniorsSanClemente66321114CalleSonoraPlaceSanClemente66321114CaminoHillsCareHome2SanClemente66321114CaminoHillsofSanClementeSanClemente66321114CasaParaisoArlenaSanClemente66321114ChateaubytheGolfCourseSanClemente66321114Leriza'sGuestHomeSanClemente66321114MalashGardensSanClemente66321114MirabelbytheSeaVSanClemente55221114RosehavenISanClemente66321114RosehavenIIISanClemente66321114SaddlebackMemorialMedicalCenterSanClemente86864329141074SanClementeVillasbytheSeaSanClemente19016812628141074SeaviewCareHomeSanClemente66321114TalegaTerraceSanJuanCapistrano 66321114TenderTouchEldercareDanaPoint66321115AegisofDanaPointSanJuanCapistrano 7676382513975AtriaSanJuanSanJuanCapistrano 140797540305BaysideTerraceCapistranoBeach66321115CasaDeAmmaDanaPoint66321115DelObispoTerraceSeniorLivingSanJuanCapistrano 958070100405EmeritusatSanJuanCapistranoSanJuanCapistrano 101878700305FountainsAtSeaBluffsSanJuanCapistrano 88884429151085MirabelBytheSeaSanJuanCapistrano 6632111 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation8 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1PAZFacilityNameMunicipalityCapacityCurrentCensusAmbulatoryWheelchairBoundBedriddenBusRunsAmbulance 5NiguelHillsVillaISanJuanCapistrano 66321115SanJuanCapistranoSouthDialysisDanaPoint1818963225SeaBrightPlaceDanaPoint66321115SeasideTerraceSanJuanCapistrano 66321115SilveradoSeniorLivingSanJuanCapistranoDanaPoint9691514001405Tessie'sPlaceLovingCareHome#1DanaPoint66321115Tessie'sPlaceLovingCareHome#2SanJuanCapistrano 66321115Tessie'sPlaceLovingCareHome#3SanJuanCapistrano 66321115Time&PatienceSanJuanCapistrano 3302111TOTAL: 1,030913611219838955

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation8 24KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 5.SummaryofTransportationResourcesResourcesAvailableTransportationResourceBuses Vans WCVansAmbulancesTotalFleetCapacityAmbulatoryWheelchairBoundBedridden AmericanLogisticsTaxisandShuttles036330414660CapistranoUnifiedSchoolDistrict 1560006,2133120OCTA 63100028,2791,3340Veolia 2530003,1391,0110SouthwestRegionFleetTransportation(SWRFT)420001,84800VariousLicensedAmbulanceServices 000539001,078TOTAL: 1,082363353939,8932,7231,078ResourcesNeededPopulationGroup/MobilityLevelBuses Vans WCVansAmbulancesAmbulatoryWheelchairBoundBedridden Schools(Table8 2):50600027,254270MedicalFacilities(Table8 4):89005561121983TransitDependentPopulation(Table8 10):1510004,51400RegisteredPeoplewithDisabilitiesandotherswithAccessandFunctionalNeeds(Section8.5):440001291300TOTALTRANSPORTATIONNEEDS:790005532,508376831 SWRFTtransportationresourcesusedforfacilitieswithinMCB.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation8 25KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 6.BusRouteDescriptionsBusRouteNumberDescription/FacilitiesServicedNodesTraversedfromRouteStarttoEPZBoundary1AmbuehlElementarySchool138,1413,76,77,142,78,79,80,527,1417,81,150,82,1453,83,84JserraCatholicHighSchoolMissionParishSchoolSaddlebackValleyChristianSchoolSanJuanElementarySchoolSerraHighSchoolSt.Margaret'sEpiscopalSchoolStonebridgeDaySchoolCapoValleyHeadStartMissionParishSchoolSt.Margaret'sEpiscopalSchool2CapistranoHomeSchool563,1342,71,72,73,74,1356,75,76,77,142,78,79,80,527,1417,81,150,82,1453,83,84CapistranoValleyChristianSchoolsKinoshitaElementarySchoolSanJuanMontessoriEvelynLoboVillegasHeadStartKinoshitaElementarySchoolSanJuanMontessori3BerniceAyerMiddleSchool607,608,609,610,611,612,613,126,127,1280,65,66,128,67,68,69,70,71,72,73,74,1356,75,76,77,142,78,79,80,527,1417,81,150,82,1453,83,84ShorecliffsMiddleSchoolTrumanBenedictElementarySchoolPalisadesElementarySchoolPalisadesElementarySchool4BroderickMontessoriSchool132,1284,68,69,70,71,72,73,74,1356,75,76,77,142,78,79,80,527,1417,81,150,82,1453,83,84CapoBeachCalvaryDanaHillsHighSchoolDelObispoElementarySchoolMarcoForsterMiddleSchoolRichardHenryDanaElementarySchoolRichardHenryDanaExceptionalNeedsSchoolStEdwardSchoolBroderickMontessoriSchool,IncCapoBeachCalvaryRichardHenryDanaElementarySchool SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation8 26KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1BusRouteNumberDescription/FacilitiesServicedNodesTraversedfromRouteStarttoEPZBoundary5ClarenceLoboElementarySchool618,121,1200,59,60,122,1251,61,62,63,64,124,125,65,66,128,67,68,69,70,71,72,73,74,1356,75,76,77,142,78,79,80,527,1417,81,150,82,1453,83,84MarbleheadElementarySchoolOurLadyofFatimaSchoolSanClementeHighSchoolVistaDelMarElementarySchoolVistaDelMarMiddleSchoolClarenceLoboMarbleheadElementarySchool6ConcordiaElementarySchool558,559,813,119,814,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60,122,1251,61,62,63,64,124,125,65,66,128,67,68,69,70,71,72,73,74,1356,75,76,77,142,78,79,80,527,1417,81,150,82,1453,83,84LasPalmasElementarySchoolOurSavior'sLutheranSchoolConcordiaElementarySchoolLasPalmasStatePreschoolOurSavior'sLutheranPreschool7RanchoCapistranoSchool147,146,149,150,82,1453,83,84StoneybrookeChristianSchoolsStoneybrookeChristianSchools8MonarchBayMontessoriAcademy165,166,167,168,169,170,171,172,173,174,175,176,177,178,139,1724,138,1413,76,77,142,78,79,80,527,1417,81,150,82,1453,83,84MonarchBayMontessoriAcademySouthShoresChristianPreschool9SouthShoresChristianSchool283,285,287,289,291,1547,434,432,437,439,441,44310SanJuanHillsHighSchool1646,1645,272,273,274,275,276,277,278,279,28011CalleSonoraPlace739,740,1175,120,1179,56,57,58,59,60,122,1251,61,62,63,64,124,125,65,66,128,67,68,69,70,71,72,73,74,1356,75,76,77,142,78,79,80,527,1417,81,150,82,1453,83,84CasaParaisoArlena12MirabelbytheSeaV589,1235,590,127,126,125,65,66,128,67,68,69,70,71,72,73,74,1356,75,76,77,142,78,79,80,527,1417,81,150,82,1453,83,84RosehavenIRosehavenIII14AccentonSeniors593,592,588,1706,589,1235,590,127,1280,65,66,128,67,68,69,70,71,72,73,74,1356,75,76,77,142,78,79,80,527,1417,81,150,82,1453,83,84ChateaubytheGolfCourseTenderTouchEldercare SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation8 27KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1BusRouteNumberDescription/FacilitiesServicedNodesTraversedfromRouteStarttoEPZBoundary15SaddlebackMemorialMedicalCenter609,610,611,612,613,126,127,1280,65,66,128,67,68,69,70,71,72,73,74,1356,75,76,77,142,78,79,80,527,1417,81,150,82,1453,83,84SanClementeVillasbytheSeaAegisofDanaPointMirabelBytheSea16Leriza'sGuestHome1271,1225,1285,130,132,1284,68,69,70,71,72,73,74,1356,75,76,77,142,78,79,80,527,1417,81,150,82,1453,83,84NiguelHillsVillaITime&Patience17CaminoHillsCareHome21248,711,712,713,607,608,609,610,611,612,613,126,127,1280,65,66,128,67,68,69,70,71,72,73,74,1356,75,76,77,142,78,79,80,527,1417,81,150,82,1453,83,84CaminoHillsofSanClementeMalashGardensSeaviewCareHome18TalegaTerrace978,973,975,976,977,691,690,689,688,982,661,660,659,986,657,656,655,654,653,652,651,650,649,626,123,1252,1256,61,62,63,64,124,125,65,66,128,67,68,69,70,71,72,73,74,1356,75,76,77,142,78,79,80,527,1417,81,150,82,1453,83,8419FountainsAtSeaBluffs1324,396,393,1720,563,1342,71,72,73,74,1356,75,76,77,142,78,79,80,527,1417,81,150,82,1453,83,8420BaysideTerrace1650,1649,281,283,285,287,289,291,1547,434,294,1672,1555,296,1559,298,1470,1469,300,302,304,308,1458,155,1454,153,1453,83,84SeasideTerrace22SeaBrightPlace1344,1343,567,563,1342,71,72,73,74,1356,75,76,77,142,78,79,80,527,1417,81,150,82,1453,83,8423DelObispoTerraceSeniorLiving1712,319,1624,320,323,324,1623,1616,1340,1349,328,331,332,330,1723,1357,138,1413,76,77,142,78,79,80,527,1417,81,150,82,1453,83,8424AtriaSanJuan1400,139,1724,138,1413,76,77,142,78,79,80,527,1417,81,150,82,1453,83,84CasaDeAmmaEmeritusatSanJuanCapistranoSanJuanCapistranoSouthDialysisTessie'sPlaceLovingCareHome#1 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation8 28KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1BusRouteNumberDescription/FacilitiesServicedNodesTraversedfromRouteStarttoEPZBoundary25SilveradoSeniorLivingSanJuanCapistrano1387,494,141,140,145,142,78,79,80,527,1417,81,150,82,1453,83,84Tessie'sPlaceLovingCareHome#2Tessie'sPlaceLovingCareHome#331St.Michael'sChristianAcademy1181,815,532,755,1714,120,1179,56,57,58,59,60,122,1251,61,62,63,64,124,125,65,66,128,67,68,69,70,71,72,73,74,1356,75,76,77,142,78,79,80,527,1417,81,150,82,1453,83,84SanClementePresbyterianPreschoolSanClementePreschoolSerraPreschoolSt.Michael'sInfant/ToddlerCenter32BrightHorizonsatSanClemente621,622,623,624,625,626,123,1252,1256,61,62,63,64,124,125,65,66,128,67,68,69,70,71,72,73,74,1356,75,76,77,142,78,79,80,527,1417,81,150,82,1453,83,8433KindercareLearningCenter641,642,643,1212,644,645,646,647,648,817,619,1201,618,121,1200,59,60,122,1251,61,62,63,64,124,125,65,66,128,67,68,69,70,71,72,73,74,1356,75,76,77,142,78,79,80,527,1417,81,150,82,1453,83,84TalegaLifeChurchPreschool34LaCristianitaPreschool594,593,592,588,1706,589,1235,590,127,126,125,65,66,128,67,68,69,70,71,72,73,74,1356,75,76,77,142,78,79,80,527,1417,81,150,82,1453,83,84PalisadesUnitedMethodistPreschool35LittleMindsMontessoriAcademy1663,1665,563,1342,71,72,73,74,1356,75,76,77,142,78,79,80,527,1417,81,150,82,1453,83,84OhanaPreschool36DanaMontessoriSchool393,1720,563,1342,71,72,73,74,1356,75,76,77,142,78,79,80,527,1417,81,150,82,1453,83,84DanaPointMontessoriGloriaDeiLutheranPreschoolStEdward'sCatholicPreschool37CapistranoBeachCitiesYMCA DelObispo487,139,1724,138,1413,76,77,142,78,79,80,527,1417,81,150,82,1453,83,84ChildbridgePreschool487,139,1724,138,1413,76,77,142,78,79,80,527,1417,81,150,82,1453,83,8440SanOnofreSchool803,804,101,805,99,1144,47,46,45,44,43,42,41,40,39,38,37,36,35,34,33,95,32,31,30,29,28,27,26,25SanOnofreYouthCenterSanOnofreChildDevelopmentCenterPAZ1WesternMCB SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation8 29KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1BusRouteNumberDescription/FacilitiesServicedNodesTraversedfromRouteStarttoEPZBoundary41PAZ3CentralMCB888,889,890,891,892,893,894,895,896,897,898,899,935,936,900,901,912,913,914,915,916,917,918,956,955,954,1141,957,953,952,95142PAZ4TAPs1,3,4,5552,553,554,555,556,111,557,558,559,813,119,814,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60,122,1251,61,62,63,64,124,125,65,66,128,67,68,69,70,71,72,73,74,1356,75,76,77,142,78,79,80,527,519,52043PAZ4TAPs2,7,8,9,10778,777,776,775,774,773,772,769,770,771,530,531,532,755,1714,120,1179,56,57,58,59,60,122,1251,61,62,63,64,124,125,65,66,128,67,68,69,70,71,72,73,74,1356,75,76,77,142,78,79,80,527,519,52044PAZ4TAPs6,17,18637,638,639,640,641,642,643,1212,644,645,646,647,648,817,619,1201,618,121,1200,59,60,122,1251,61,62,63,64,124,125,65,66,128,67,68,69,70,71,72,73,74,1356,75,76,77,142,78,79,80,527,519,52045PAZ4TAPs15,19,20694,693,692,691,690,696,695,699,700,987,657,656,655,654,653,652,651,650,649,626,123,1252,1256,61,62,63,64,124,125,65,66,128,67,68,69,70,71,72,73,74,1356,75,76,77,142,78,79,80,527,519,52046PAZ4TAPs13,14,16,21720,721,722,723,708,709,710,711,712,713,607,608,609,610,611,612,613,126,127,1280,65,66,128,67,68,69,70,71,72,73,74,1356,75,76,77,142,78,79,80,527,519,52047PAZ5TAPs23,24,321272,1271,1225,1285,130,132,1284,68,69,70,71,72,73,74,1356,75,76,77,142,78,79,80,527,519,52048PAZs4,5TAPs11,12,22,25,28604,603,602,601,600,599,598,597,596,595,594,593,592,588,1706,589,1235,590,127,1280,65,66,128,67,68,69,70,71,72,73,74,1356,75,76,77,142,78,79,80,527,519,520 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation8 30KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1BusRouteNumberDescription/FacilitiesServicedNodesTraversedfromRouteStarttoEPZBoundary49PAZ5TAPs29,31263,267,268,269,270,271,1645,272,273,274,275,276,277,278,279,28050PAZ5TAPs26,27,30393,1720,563,1342,71,72,73,74,1356,75,76,77,142,78,79,80,527,519,52051PAZ5TAPs33,41,421287,1345,1286,1397,1399,1414,1400,139,1724,138,1413,76,77,142,78,79,80,527,519,52052PAZ5TAPs40,43174,175,176,177,178,139,487,488,489,490,491,492,493,141,140,145,142,78,79,80,527,519,52053PAZ5TAPs37,38,39329,1396,1416,472,473,474,144,1391,143,1729,140,145,142,78,79,80,527,519,52054PAZ5TAPs34,35,361334,1336,317,1712,319,1624,320,323,324,1623,1616,1340,1349,328,331,332,330,1723,1357,138,1413,76,77,142,78,79,80,527,519,520 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation8 31KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 7.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeatherSchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.C.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.C.(min)ETEtoR.C.(hr:min)OrangeCountyPrivateSchoolsOurLadyofFatimaSchool90159.912.3492:3517.4243:00OurSavior'sLutheranSchool901512.413.0582:4517.4243:10St.Michael'sChristianAcademy901510.39.4662:5517.4243:15BroderickMontessoriSchool90158.818.6292:1517.4242:40CapistranoHomeSchool90155.315.6212:1017.4242:30CapistranoValleyChristianSchools90155.315.6212:1017.4242:30CapoBeachCalvary90158.818.6292:1517.4242:40JserraCatholicHighSchool90153.426.981:5517.4242:20MissionParishSchool90153.426.981:5517.4242:20MonarchBayMontessoriAcademy90150.929.421:5020.1272:15RanchoCapistranoSchool90150.15.521:5019.8272:15SaddlebackValleyChristianSchool901512.426.9282:1517.4242:40SanJuanMontessori90155.315.6212:1017.4242:30SouthShoresChristianSchool90150.54.571:5521282:20StEdwardSchool90158.818.6292:1517.4242:40St.Margaret'sEpiscopalSchool90153.426.981:5517.4242:20StonebridgeDaySchool90153.418.6112:0017.4242:20StoneybrookeChristianSchools90150.126.911:5019.8272:15OrangeCountyPublicSchoolsBerniceAyerMiddleSchool90159.37.4763:0517.4243:25ClarenceLoboElementarySchool90159.912.3492:3517.4243:00ConcordiaElementarySchool901512.413.0582:4517.4243:10LasPalmasElementarySchool901512.413.0582:4517.4243:10MarbleheadElementarySchool90159.912.3492:3517.4243:00SanClementeHighSchool90159.912.3492:3517.4243:00 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation8 32KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.C.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.C.(min)ETEtoR.C.(hr:min)ShorecliffsMiddleSchool90159.37.4763:0517.4243:25TrumanBenedictElementarySchool90159.37.4763:0517.4243:25VistaDelMarElementarySchool90159.912.3492:3517.4243:00VistaDelMarMiddleSchool90159.912.3492:3517.4243:00AmbuehlElementarySchool90153.426.981:5517.4242:20DanaHillsHighSchool90158.818.6292:1517.4242:40DelObispoElementarySchool90158.818.6292:1517.4242:40KinoshitaElementarySchool90155.315.6212:1017.4242:30MarcoForsterMiddleSchool90158.818.6292:1517.4242:40PalisadesElementarySchool90159.37.4763:0517.4243:25RichardHenryDanaElementarySchool90158.818.6292:1517.4242:40RichardHenryDanaExceptionalNeedsSchool90158.818.6292:1517.4242:40SanJuanElementarySchool90153.426.981:5517.4242:20SanJuanHillsHighSchool90155.729.5122:0019.1262:25SerraHighSchool90153.426.981:5517.4242:20OrangeCountyPreschools/DaycaresBrightHorizonsatSanClemente90159.38.2682:5517.4243:20ClarenceLobo90159.912.3492:3517.4243:00ConcordiaElementarySchool901512.413.0582:4517.4243:10KindercareLearningCenter901511.75.01404:0517.4244:30LaCristianitaPreschool90158.59.0572:4517.4243:10LasPalmasStatePreschool901512.412.8592:4517.4243:10MarbleheadElementarySchool90159.912.0502:3517.4243:00OurSavior'sLutheranPreschool901512.412.6592:4517.4243:10PalisadesUnitedMethodistPreschool90158.58.4612:5017.4243:10SanClementePresbyterianPreschool901510.39.1682:5517.4243:20SanClementePreschool901510.39.1682:5517.4243:20SerraPreschool901510.38.6723:0017.4243:25 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation8 33KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.C.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.C.(min)ETEtoR.C.(hr:min)St.Michael'sInfant/ToddlerCenter901510.38.3753:0017.4243:25TalegaLifeChurchPreschool901511.74.31644:3017.4244:55BroderickMontessoriSchool,Inc90158.818.6292:1517.4242:40CapistranoBeachCitiesYMCA DelObispo90153.726.291:5517.4242:20CapoBeachCalvary90158.818.6292:1517.4242:40CapoValleyHeadStart90153.426.981:5517.4242:20ChildbridgePreschool90153.726.291:5517.4242:20DanaMontessoriSchool90156.97.2582:4517.4243:10DanaPointMontessori90156.97.2582:4517.4243:10EvelynLoboVillegasHeadStart90155.313.6242:1017.4242:35GloriaDeiLutheranPreschool90156.97.2582:4517.4243:10KinoshitaElementarySchool90155.313.6242:1017.4242:35LittleMindsMontessoriAcademy901569.6382:2517.4242:50MissionParishSchool90153.426.981:5517.4242:20MonarchBayMontessoriAcademy90150.929.421:5020.1272:15OhanaPreschool901569.6382:2517.4242:50PalisadesElementarySchool90159.37.1793:0517.4243:30RichardHenryDanaElementarySchool90158.818.6292:1517.4242:40SanJuanMontessori90155.313.6242:1017.4242:35SouthShoresChristianPreschool90150.929.421:5020.1272:15StEdward'sCatholicPreschool90156.97.2582:4517.4243:10St.Margaret'sEpiscopalSchool90153.426.981:5517.4242:20StoneybrookeChristianSchools901505.501:4519.8272:15MCBSchoolsSanOnofreSchool901520.911.21123:405.073:45SanOnofreYouthCenter901520.911.21123:405.073:45MCBPreschools/DaycaresSanOnofreChildDevelopmentCenter901520.911.21123:405.073:45 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation8 34KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.C.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.C.(min)ETEtoR.C.(hr:min)MaximumforEPZ:4:30Maximum:4:55AverageforEPZ:2:30Average:2:55 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation8 35KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 8.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesRainSchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.C.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoH.S.(min)ETEtoR.C.(hr:min)OrangeCountyPrivateSchoolsOurLadyofFatimaSchool100209.910.5573:0017.4273:25OurSavior'sLutheranSchool1002012.410.1743:1517.4273:45St.Michael'sChristianAcademy1002010.38.9703:1017.4273:40BroderickMontessoriSchool100208.816.8322:3517.4273:00CapistranoHomeSchool100205.313.8232:2517.4272:50CapistranoValleyChristianSchools100205.313.8232:2517.4272:50CapoBeachCalvary100208.816.8322:3517.4273:00JserraCatholicHighSchool100203.423.392:1017.4272:40MissionParishSchool100203.423.392:1017.4272:40MonarchBayMontessoriAcademy100200.924.232:0520.1312:35RanchoCapistranoSchool100200.15.422:0519.8302:35SaddlebackValleyChristianSchool1002012.423.7322:3517.4273:00SanJuanMontessori100205.313.8232:2517.4272:50SouthShoresChristianSchool100200.53.692:1021322:45StEdwardSchool100208.816.8322:3517.4273:00St.Margaret'sEpiscopalSchool100203.423.392:1017.4272:40StonebridgeDaySchool100203.416.8132:1517.4272:40StoneybrookeChristianSchools100200.123.312:0519.8302:35OrangeCountyPublicSchoolsBerniceAyerMiddleSchool100209.37.1793:2017.4273:50ClarenceLoboElementarySchool100209.910.5573:0017.4273:25ConcordiaElementarySchool1002012.410.1743:1517.4273:45LasPalmasElementarySchool1002012.410.1743:1517.4273:45MarbleheadElementarySchool100209.910.5573:0017.4273:25SanClementeHighSchool100209.910.5573:0017.4273:25ShorecliffsMiddleSchool100209.37.1793:2017.4273:50 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation8 36KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.C.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoH.S.(min)ETEtoR.C.(hr:min)TrumanBenedictElementarySchool100209.37.1793:2017.4273:50VistaDelMarElementarySchool100209.910.5573:0017.4273:25VistaDelMarMiddleSchool100209.910.5573:0017.4273:25AmbuehlElementarySchool100203.423.392:1017.4272:40DanaHillsHighSchool100208.816.8322:3517.4273:00DelObispoElementarySchool100208.816.8322:3517.4273:00KinoshitaElementarySchool100205.313.8232:2517.4272:50MarcoForsterMiddleSchool100208.816.8322:3517.4273:00PalisadesElementarySchool100209.37.1793:2017.4273:50RichardHenryDanaElementarySchool100208.816.8322:3517.4273:00RichardHenryDanaExceptionalNeedsSchool100208.816.8322:3517.4273:00SanJuanElementarySchool100203.423.392:1017.4272:40SanJuanHillsHighSchool100205.731.6112:1519.1292:40SerraHighSchool100203.423.392:1017.4272:40OrangeCountyPreschools/DaycaresBrightHorizonsatSanClemente100209.37.5753:1517.4273:45ClarenceLobo100209.910.5573:0017.4273:25ConcordiaElementarySchool1002012.410.1743:1517.4273:45KindercareLearningCenter1002011.74.71494:3017.4275:00LaCristianitaPreschool100208.57.7673:1017.4273:35LasPalmasStatePreschool1002012.49.4793:2017.4273:50MarbleheadElementarySchool100209.99.4643:0517.4273:25OurSavior'sLutheranPreschool1002012.48.4893:3017.4274:00PalisadesUnitedMethodistPreschool100208.57.8663:1017.4273:35SanClementePresbyterianPreschool1002010.38.4743:1517.4273:45SanClementePreschool1002010.38.8713:1517.4273:40SerraPreschool1002010.38.7723:1517.4273:40St.Michael'sInfant/ToddlerCenter1002010.39.1683:1017.4273:35TalegaLifeChurchPreschool1002011.74.21684:5017.4275:15 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation8 37KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.C.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoH.S.(min)ETEtoR.C.(hr:min)BroderickMontessoriSchool,Inc100208.815.2352:3517.4273:05CapistranoBeachCitiesYMCA DelObispo100203.721.0112:1517.4272:40CapoBeachCalvary100208.815.2352:3517.4273:00CapoValleyHeadStart100203.422.0102:1017.4272:40ChildbridgePreschool100203.721.0112:1517.4272:40DanaMontessoriSchool100206.97.1593:0017.4273:30DanaPointMontessori100206.97.1593:0017.4273:30EvelynLoboVillegasHeadStart100205.313.2252:2517.4272:55GloriaDeiLutheranPreschool100206.97.1593:0017.4273:30KinoshitaElementarySchool100205.313.2252:2517.4272:50LittleMindsMontessoriAcademy1002069.3392:4017.4273:10MissionParishSchool100203.422.0102:1017.4272:40MonarchBayMontessoriAcademy100200.924.232:0520.1312:35OhanaPreschool1002069.3392:4017.4273:10PalisadesElementarySchool100209.36.6853:2517.4273:50RichardHenryDanaElementarySchool100208.815.2352:3517.4273:00SanJuanMontessori100205.313.2252:2517.4272:50SouthShoresChristianPreschool100200.924.232:0520.1312:35StEdward'sCatholicPreschool100206.97.1593:0017.4273:30St.Margaret'sEpiscopalSchool100203.422.0102:1017.4272:40StoneybrookeChristianSchools1002005.402:0019.8302:35MCBSchoolsSanOnofreSchool1002020.910.01264:105.084:15SanOnofreYouthCenter1002020.910.01264:105.084:15MCBPreschools/DaycaresSanOnofreChildDevelopmentCenter1002020.910.01264:105.084:15MaximumforEPZ:4:50Maximum:5:15AverageforEPZ:2:50Average:3:15 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation8 38KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 9.SummaryofTransit DependentBusRoutesRouteNo.ofBusesRouteDescriptionLength(mi.)404PAZ1MCBSanOnofre20.94112PAZ3CentralMCB-CampSanOnofre,CampHorno,CampLasPulgas,andCampLasFlores15.44212ServicingTAPs1,3,4,5withinSanClementeinPAZ412.74316ServicingTAPs2,7,8,9,10withinSanClementeinPAZ413.4449ServicingTAPs6,17,18withinSanClementeinPAZ415.0459ServicingTAPs15,19,20withinSanClementeinPAZ413.44612ServicingTAPs13,14,16,withinSanClementeinPAZ411.34710ServicingTAPs23,24,32withinDanaPointinPAZ57.54813ServicingTAPs11,12,22withinSanClementeandCapistranoBeachinPAZs4and512.1497ServicingTAPs29,31withinDanaPointinPAZ53.25010ServicingTAPs26,27,30withinDanaPointinPAZ57.55110ServicingTAPs33,41,42withinSanJuanCapistranoinPAZ55.2527ServicingTAPs40,43withinanJuanCapistranoinPAZ53.85310ServicingTAPs37,38,39withinSanJuanCapistranoinPAZ53.55410ServicingTAPs34,35,36withinSanJuanCapistranoinPAZ56.4Total:151 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation8 39KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table810.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeatherRouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)401,210520.946.427302:455.0751057304:35403,411520.950.825302:505.0751057304:40411,2,3,410515.410.489303:455.7851089306:10415,6,7,811515.410.489303:555.7851087306:15419,10,11,1212515.410.390304:055.7851084306:25421,2,3,410512.712.760303:1517.42351061305:25425,6,7,811512.713.457303:2517.42351058305:35429,10,11,1212512.714.154303:3017.42351056305:35431,2,3,410513.48.594303:5017.42351056305:55435,6,7,811513.49.287303:5517.42351056306:00439,10,11,1212513.49.585304:0017.42351056306:054313,14,15,1613513.410.279304:0517.42351056306:10441,2,310515.04.6194305:3017.42351060307:40444,5,6,11515.04.8188305:3517.42351060307:45447,8,912515.05.0181305:4017.42351060307:50451,2,310513.44.8168305:0517.42351056307:10454,5,6,11513.45.2155305:0017.42351056307:05457,8,912513.45.3152305:1017.42351056307:15461,2,3,410511.33.7183305:2017.42351051307:20465,6,7,811511.33.8179305:2517.42351051307:25469,10,11,1212511.33.9172305:3017.42351051307:30 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation8 40KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1RouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)471,2,3,41057.517.925302:4517.42351046304:40475,6,71157.518.225302:5017.42351045304:45478,9,101257.518.524303:0017.42351044304:55481,2,3,410512.17.992303:5017.42351059306:00485,6,7,811512.18.190303:5517.42351058306:05489,10,1112512.18.684304:0017.42351056306:054812,1313512.18.882304:1017.42351055306:15491,2,3,41053.220.39302:2520.12751037304:15495,6,71153.226.37302:3520.12751037304:25501,2,3,41057.56.965303:2017.42351042305:10505,6,71157.57.164303:3017.42351041305:20508,9,101257.57.858303:3517.42351041305:25511,2,3,41055.220.315302:3517.42351036304:20515,6,71155.221.415302:4017.42351036304:25518,9,101255.222.514302:5017.42351036304:35521,2,3,41053.828.38302:2517.42351034304:10525,6,71153.839.16302:3517.42351033304:20531,2,3,41053.57.329302:4517.42351033304:30535,6,71153.57.727302:5517.42351033304:40538,9,101253.58.724303:0017.42351033304:45541,2,3,41056.47.750303:0517.42351042304:55545,6,71156.48.744303:1017.42351042305:00548,9,101256.410.038303:1517.42351042305:05MaximumETE:5:40MaximumETE:7:50AverageETE:3:45AverageETE:5:40 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation8 41KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table811.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesRainRouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)401,211520.946.427403:055.0851064405:15403,412520.948.826403:155.0851064405:25411,2,3,411515.49.597404:155.79510100407:00415,6,7,812515.49.498404:255.7951098407:10419,10,11,1213515.49.696404:355.7951096407:15421,2,3,411512.710.076403:5517.42651065406:25425,6,7,812512.710.672404:0017.42651064406:30429,10,11,1213512.711.169404:0517.42651063406:30431,2,3,411513.47.1113404:3017.42651062406:55435,6,7,812513.47.5108404:3517.42651062407:00439,10,11,1213513.47.9102404:4017.42651062407:054313,14,15,1614513.48.595404:4017.42651062407:05441,2,311515.04.2214406:1017.42651067408:40444,5,6,12515.04.3208406:1517.42651067408:45447,8,913515.04.5202406:2017.42651067408:50451,2,311513.44.4183405:4017.42651062408:05454,5,6,12513.44.6176405:4517.42651062408:10457,8,913513.44.6173405:5017.42651062408:15461,2,3,411511.33.5193405:5017.42651057408:10465,6,7,812511.33.6191406:0017.42651057408:20469,10,11,1213511.33.6189406:0517.42651057408:25 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation8 42KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1RouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)471,2,3,41157.516.427403:0517.42651049405:20475,6,71257.517.326403:1517.42651047405:25478,9,101357.516.827403:2517.42651046405:35481,2,3,411512.17.1103404:2017.42651067406:50485,6,7,812512.17.499404:2517.42651065406:55489,10,1113512.17.696404:3517.42651063407:004812,1314512.18.091404:4017.42651063407:05491,2,3,41153.224.08402:4520.13051041404:55495,6,71253.219.110403:0020.13051041405:10501,2,3,41157.56.668403:4517.42651046405:55505,6,71257.56.668403:5517.42651046406:05508,9,101357.56.767404:0517.42651046406:15511,2,3,41155.221.115402:5017.42651040404:55515,6,71255.222.414403:0017.42651040405:05518,9,101355.222.614403:1017.42651040405:15521,2,3,41153.824.49402:4517.42651037404:45525,6,71253.837.66402:5517.42651037404:55531,2,3,41153.56.433403:1017.42651037405:10535,6,71253.57.329403:1517.42651037405:15538,9,101353.58.425403:2017.42651037405:20541,2,3,41156.48.247403:2517.42651047405:35545,6,71256.48.744403:3017.42651046405:40548,9,101356.410.038403:3517.42651046405:45MaximumETE:6:20MaximumETE:8:50AverageETE:4:15AverageETE:6:30 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation8 43KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table812.MedicalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeatherMedicalFacilityPatientMobilization(min)LoadingRate(minperperson)PeopleTotalLoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary (min)ETE(hr:min)AccentonSeniorsAmbulatory9013138.3492:35Wheelchairbound90528.3492:35Bedridden90151188.3502:40CalleSonoraPlaceAmbulatory90131310.5622:45Wheelchairbound905210.5622:45Bedridden901511810.5602:50CaminoHillsCareHome2Ambulatory9013138.8993:25Wheelchairbound90528.8993:25Bedridden90151188.8993:30CaminoHillsofSanClementeAmbulatory9013138.8993:25Wheelchairbound90528.8993:25Bedridden90151188.8993:30CasaParaisoArlenaAmbulatory90131310.5622:45Wheelchairbound905210.5622:45Bedridden901511810.5602:50ChateaubytheGolfCourseAmbulatory9013138.3492:35Wheelchairbound90528.3492:35Bedridden90151188.3502:40Leriza'sGuestHomeAmbulatory9013136.6232:10Wheelchairbound90526.6232:10Bedridden90151186.6232:15MalashGardensAmbulatory9013138.8993:25Wheelchairbound90528.8993:25Bedridden90151178.8993:30 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation8 44KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1MedicalFacilityPatientMobilization(min)LoadingRate(minperperson)PeopleTotalLoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary (min)ETE(hr:min)MirabelbytheSeaVAmbulatory9012127.3332:15Wheelchairbound90527.3332:15Bedridden90151187.3342:25RosehavenIAmbulatory9013137.3332:20Wheelchairbound90527.3332:20Bedridden90151187.3342:25RosehavenIIIAmbulatory9013137.3332:20Wheelchairbound90527.3332:20Bedridden90151457.3342:50SaddlebackMemorialMedicalCenterAmbulatory90143457.5543:10Wheelchairbound905297.5543:10Bedridden901514607.5523:25SanClementeVillasbytheSeaAmbulatory901126457.5543:10Wheelchairbound905287.5543:10Bedridden901514337.5543:00SeaviewCareHomeAmbulatory9013138.8993:25Wheelchairbound90528.8993:25Bedridden90151188.8993:30TalegaTerraceAmbulatory90131312.91544:20Wheelchairbound905212.91544:20Bedridden901511812.91534:25TenderTouchEldercareAmbulatory9013138.3492:35Wheelchairbound90528.3492:35Bedridden90151458.3493:05AegisofDanaPointAmbulatory90138457.5543:10Wheelchairbound905257.5543:10 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation8 45KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1MedicalFacilityPatientMobilization(min)LoadingRate(minperperson)PeopleTotalLoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary (min)ETE(hr:min)Bedridden901513607.5523:25AtriaSanJuanAmbulatory90175453.282:25Wheelchairbound90543.282:25BaysideTerraceAmbulatory9013137.9672:50Wheelchairbound90527.9672:50Bedridden90151187.9672:55CasaDeAmmaAmbulatory9013133.281:55Wheelchairbound90523.281:55Bedridden90151453.282:25DelObispoTerraceSeniorLivingAmbulatory90170455.9292:45Wheelchairbound905105.9292:45EmeritusatSanJuanCapistranoAmbulatory90187303.272:10FountainsAtSeaBluffsAmbulatory90144456.8463:05Wheelchairbound905296.8463:05Bedridden901515336.8502:55MirabelBytheSeaAmbulatory9013137.5542:40Wheelchairbound90527.5542:40Bedridden90151187.5542:45NiguelHillsVillaIAmbulatory9013136.6232:10Wheelchairbound90526.6232:10Bedridden90151246.6222:20SanJuanCapistranoSouthDialysisAmbulatory9019243.282:05Wheelchairbound90563.282:05Bedridden90153333.272:10SeaBrightPlaceAmbulatory9013136.2242:10Wheelchairbound90526.2242:10 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation8 46KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1MedicalFacilityPatientMobilization(min)LoadingRate(minperperson)PeopleTotalLoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary (min)ETE(hr:min)Bedridden90151186.2242:15SeasideTerraceAmbulatory9013137.9672:50Wheelchairbound90527.9672:50Bedridden90151457.9603:15SilveradoSeniorLivingSanJuanCapistranoAmbulatory90151452.652:20Wheelchairbound905402.652:20Tessie'sPlaceLovingCareHome#1Ambulatory9013133.281:55Wheelchairbound90523.281:55Bedridden90151183.282:00Tessie'sPlaceLovingCareHome#2Ambulatory9013132.661:50Wheelchairbound90522.661:50Bedridden90151182.651:55Tessie'sPlaceLovingCareHome#3Ambulatory9013132.661:50Wheelchairbound90522.661:50Bedridden90151152.661:55Time&PatienceWheelchairbound9052106.6222:05Bedridden90151156.6232:10MaximumETE:4:25AverageETE:2:45 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation8 47KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table813.MedicalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimatesRainMedicalFacilityPatientMobilization(min)LoadingRate(minperperson)PeopleTotalLoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary (min)ETE(hr:min)AccentonSeniorsAmbulatory10013138.3582:55Wheelchairbound100528.3582:55Bedridden100151188.3572:55CalleSonoraPlaceAmbulatory100131310.5683:05Wheelchairbound1005210.5683:05Bedridden1001511810.5663:05CaminoHillsCareHome2Ambulatory10013138.81083:45Wheelchairbound100528.81083:45Bedridden100151188.81073:45CaminoHillsofSanClementeAmbulatory10013138.81083:45Wheelchairbound100528.81083:45Bedridden100151188.81073:45CasaParaisoArlenaAmbulatory100131310.5683:05Wheelchairbound1005210.5683:05Bedridden1001511810.5663:05ChateaubytheGolfCourseAmbulatory10013138.3582:55Wheelchairbound100528.3582:55Bedridden100151188.3572:55Leriza'sGuestHomeAmbulatory10013136.6242:20Wheelchairbound100526.6242:20Bedridden100151186.6252:25MalashGardensAmbulatory10013138.81083:45Wheelchairbound100528.81083:45Bedridden100151178.81073:45MirabelbytheSeaVAmbulatory10012127.3392:35Wheelchairbound100527.3392:35Bedridden100151187.3392:40RosehavenIAmbulatory10013137.3392:35 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation8 48KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1MedicalFacilityPatientMobilization(min)LoadingRate(minperperson)PeopleTotalLoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary (min)ETE(hr:min)Wheelchairbound100527.3392:35Bedridden100151187.3392:40RosehavenIIIAmbulatory10013137.3392:35Wheelchairbound100527.3392:35Bedridden100151457.3363:05SaddlebackMemorialMedicalCenterAmbulatory100143457.5543:20Wheelchairbound1005297.5543:20Bedridden1001514607.5563:40SanClementeVillasbytheSeaAmbulatory1001126457.5543:20Wheelchairbound1005287.5543:20Bedridden1001514337.5553:10SeaviewCareHomeAmbulatory10013138.81083:45Wheelchairbound100528.81083:45Bedridden100151188.81073:45TalegaTerraceAmbulatory100131312.91664:40Wheelchairbound1005212.91664:40Bedridden1001511812.91604:40TenderTouchEldercareAmbulatory10013138.3582:55Wheelchairbound100528.3582:55Bedridden100151458.3553:20AegisofDanaPointAmbulatory100138457.5543:20Wheelchairbound1005257.5543:20Bedridden1001513607.5563:40AtriaSanJuanAmbulatory100175453.282:35Wheelchairbound100543.282:35 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation9 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.19 TRAFFICMANAGEMENTSTRATEGYThissectiondiscussesthesuggestedtrafficcontrolandmanagementstrategythatisdesignedtoexpeditethemovementofevacuatingtraffic.Theresourcesrequiredtoimplementthisstrategyinclude:* Personnelwiththecapabilitiesofperformingtheplannedcontrolfunctionsoftrafficguides(preferably,notnecessarily,lawenforcementofficers).* TrafficControlDevicestoassistthesepersonnelintheperformanceoftheirtasks.ThesedevicesshouldcomplywiththeguidanceoftheManualofUniformTrafficControlDevices(MUTCD)publishedbytheFederalHighwayAdministration(FHWA)oftheU.S.D.O.T.AllstateandmostcountytransportationagencieshaveaccesstotheMUTCD,whichisav ailableon line:http://mutcd.fhwa.dot.govwhichprovidesaccesstotheofficialPDFversion.* Aplanthatdefinesalllocations,providesnecessarydetailsandisdocumentedinaformatthatisreadilyunderstoodbythoseassignedtoperformtrafficcontrol.Thefunctionstobeperformedinthefieldare:1. Facilitat eevacuatingtrafficmovementsthatsafelyexpeditetraveloutoftheEPZ.2. Discouragetrafficmovementsthatmoveevacuatingvehiclesinadirectionwhichtakesthemsignificantlyclosertothepowerplant,orwhichinterfereswiththeefficientflowofotherevacuees.Theterms"facilitate"and"discourage"areemployedratherthan"enforce"and"prohibit"toindicatetheneedforflexibilityinperformingthetrafficcontrolfunction.Therearealwayslegitimatereasonsforadrivertopreferadirectionotherthanthatindicated.Forex ample:* Adrivermaybetravelinghomefromworkorfromanotherlocation,tojoinotherfamilymemberspriortoevacuating.* Anevacuatingdrivermaybetravellingtopickuparelative,orotherevacuees.* Thedrivermaybeanemergencyworkerenroutetoperformanimportantactivity.Theimplementationofaplanmustalsobeflexibleenoughfortheapplicationofsoundjudgmentbythetrafficguide.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation9 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Thetrafficmanagementplanistheoutcomeofthefollowingprocess:1. TheexistingTCPsandACPsidentifiedbytheoffsiteagenciesintheirexistingemergencyplansserveasthebasisofthetrafficmanagementplan,asperNUREG/CR 7002.2. Computeranalysisoftheevacuationtrafficflowenvironment.Thisanalysisidentifiesthebestroutingandthosecriticalintersectionstha texperiencepronouncedcongestion.AnycriticalintersectionsthatarenotidentifiedintheexistingoffsiteplansaresuggestedasadditionalTCPsandACPs3. Afieldsurveyofthehighwaynetworkwithin15milesofthepowerplant.TheschematicsdescribingmodifiedcontrolplansatTCPsdesignatedinAppendixGarebasedondatacollectedduringfieldsurveys,uponlargescalemaps,andonoverheadphotos.4. Consultationwithemer gencymanagementandlawenforcementpersonnel.TrainedpersonnelwhoareexperiencedincontrollingtrafficandareawareofthelikelyevacuationtrafficpatternsshouldreviewthecontroltacticsatthesuggestedadditionalTCPsandACPs.5. PrioritizationofTCP sandACPs.ApplicationoftrafficandaccesscontrolatsomeTCPsandACPswillhaveamorepronouncedinfluenceonexpeditingtrafficmovementsthanatotherTCPsandACPs.Forexample,TCPscontrollingtrafficoriginatingfromareasincloseproximitytothepowerplantcouldhaveamorebeneficialeffectonminimizingpotentialexposuretoradioactivitythanthoseTCPslocatedfarfromth epowerplant.Theseprioritiesshouldbeassignedbystate/countyemergencymanagementrepresentativesandbylawenforcementpersonnel.Recommendedchangestotheexistingtrafficmanagemen tplansareidentifiedinAppendixG.Thesechangeswerediscussedwiththeoffsiteagenciesatthefinalmeetingandwillbeincorporatedintofuturerevisionsofthetrafficmanagementplans.ThesesuggestedTCPsprimarilyconsistofremovingrestrictionsimposedbythecurrentconfigurationsandthereforerequirefewerresourcestoestablishthem.TheuseofIntelligentTransportationSystems(ITS)technologies(ifavailable)couldreducemanpowerandequipmentneed s,whilestillfacilitatingtheevacuationprocess.DynamicMessageSigns(DMS)canbeplacedwithintheEPZtoprovideinformationtotravelersregardingtrafficconditions,routeselection,andreceptioncenterinformation.DMScanalsobeplacedo utsideoftheEPZtowarnmotoriststoavoidusingroutesthatmayconflictwiththeflowofevacueesawayfromthepowerplant.HighwayAdvisoryRadio(HAR)canbeusedtobroadcastinformationtoevacueesenroutethroughtheirvehiclestereosystems.AutomatedTravelerInformationSystems(ATIS)canalsobeusedtoprovideevacueeswithinformation.Internetwebsitescanprovidetrafficandevacuationrouteinformationbeforetheevacueebeginshistrip,whileonboardnavigationsystems(GPSunits),cellphones,andpagerscanbeusedtoprovideinformationenroute.TheseareonlyseveralexamplesofhowITStechnologiescanbenefittheevacuationprocess.ConsiderationshouldbegiventhatITStechnologiesbeusedtofacilitatetheevacuationprocess,andanyadditionalsignageplacedshouldconsiderevacuationneeds.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation9 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TheETEanalysistreatedallcontrolledintersectionsthatareexistingTCPlocationsintheoffsiteagencyplansasbeingcontrolledbyactuatedsignals.Chapters2Nand5G,andPart6ofthe2009MUTCDareparticularlyrelevantandshouldbereviewedduringemergencyresponsetraining.TheETEcalculationsreflecttheassumptionthatall"ext ernalexternal"tripsareinterdictedanddivertedafter30minuteshaveelapsedfromtheATE.AlltransitvehiclesandotherrespondersenteringtheEPZtosupporttheevacuationareassumedtobeunhinderedbypersonnelmanningACPsandTCPs.StudyAssumptions5and6inSection2.3discussACPandTCPstaffingschedulesandoperations.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation10 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.110 EVACUATIONROUTESEvacuationroutesarecomprisedoftwodistinctcomponents:* RoutingfromaPAZbeingevacuatedtotheboundaryoftheEvacuationRegionandthenceoutoftheEPZ.* Routingoftransit dependentevacueesfromtheEPZboundarytoreceptioncenters.EvacueeswillselectrouteswithintheEPZinsuchawayastominimizetheirexposuretorisk.ThisexpectationismetbytheDYNEVIImodelroutingtrafficawayfromthelocationoftheplant,totheextentpracticable.TheDTRADmodelsatisfiesthisbehaviorbyroutingtrafficsoastobalancetrafficdemandrelativetotheavailablehighwaycapa citytotheextentpossible.SeeAppendicesBthroughDforfurtherdiscussion.Theroutingoftransit dependentevacueesfromtheEPZboundarytoreceptioncentersisdesignedtominimizetheamountoftraveloutsidetheEPZ,fromthepointswheretheseroutescrosstheEPZboundary.Figure10 1presentsamapshowin gthereceptioncentersforevacuees.ThemajorevacuationroutesfortheEPZarepresentedinFigure10 2.Itisassumedthatallschoolevacueeswillbetakentotheappropriatereceptioncenterandsubsequentlypickedupbyparentsorguardians.Transitdependentevacueesaretransportedtothenearestreceptioncenterforeachcounty.Thisstud ydoesnotconsiderthetransportofevacueesfromreceptioncenterstocongregatecarecenters,iftheoffsiteagenciesdomakethedecisiontorelocateevacuees.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation10 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure10 1.GeneralPopulationandSchoolReceptionCenters SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation10 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure10 2.EvacuationRoutes SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation11 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.111 SURVEILLANCEOFEVACUATIONOPERATIONSThereisaneedforsurveillanceoftrafficoperationsduringtheevacuation.Thereisalsoaneedtoclearanyblockageofroadwaysarisingfromaccidentsorvehicledisablement.Surveillancecantakeseveralforms.1. Trafficcontrolpersonnel,locatedatTrafficControlandAccessControlpoints,providefixed pointsurveillance.2. Groundpatrolsmaybeundertakenalongwell definedpathstoensurecoverageofthosehighwaysthatserveasmajorevacuationroutes.3. Aerialsurveillanceofevacuationoperationsmayalsobeconductedusinghelicopterorfixed wingaircraft,ifavailable.4. Cellularphonecalls(ifcellularcoverageexists)frommotoristsmayalsoprovidedirectfieldreportsofroadblockages.TheseconcurrentsurveillanceproceduresaredesignedtoprovidecoverageoftheentireEPZaswellastheareaarounditsperiphery.Itistheresponsibilityoftheoffsiteagenciestosupportanemergencyresponsesystemthatcanreceivemessagesfromthefieldandbeinapositiontorespondtoanyreportedproblemsinatimelymanner.Thiscoverageshouldquic klyidentify,andexpeditetheresponsetoanyblockagecausedbyadisabledvehicle.TowVehiclesInalow speedtrafficenvironment,anyvehicledisablementislikelytoariseduetoalow speedcollision,mechanicalfailureortheexhaustionofitsfuelsupply.Inanycase,thedisabledvehiclecanbepushedontotheshoulder,therebyrestoringtrafficflow.Pastexperienceinotheremergenciesindicatesthatevacueeswhoareleavinganareaoftenperformactivitiessuchaspushingadisabledvehicletothesideoftheroadwithoutprom pting.Whiletheneedfortowvehiclesisexpectedtobelowunderthecircumstancesdescribedabove,itisstillprudenttobepreparedforsuchaneed.Considerationshouldbegiventhattowtruckswithasupplyofgasolinebedeployedatstrategiclo cationswithin,orjustoutside,theEPZ.Theselocationsshouldbeselectedsothat: Theypermitaccesstokey,heavilyloaded,evacuationroutes. Respondingtowtruckswouldmostlikelytravelcounter flowrelativetoevacuatingtraffic.Considerationshouldalsobegiventhatthestateandlocalemergencymanagementagenciesencouragegasstationstoremainopenduringtheevacuation.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation12 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.112 CONFIRMATIONTIMEItisnecessarytoconfirmthattheevacuationprocessiseffectiveinthesensethatthepubliciscomplyingwiththeAdvisorytoEvacuate.TheSanJuanCapistranoRadiologicalEmergencyPlanstatesthatitisStandardOperatingProcedureforOrangeCountytoadministerthisprocess.Indoingsotheymayemployanyorallofthefollowingmethods: SirensandEASmessageinstructions. Confirmationthatpre identifiedspecialneedspopulationhav ebeennotified/transported. VisualcheckofTransportationAssemblyPoints(TAPs)toensurethatthepopulacesrequiringpublictransportationassistancehavebeenevacuated. Vehicle(mobile)publicaddresssystems. PublishingofPublicInformationhotlinetelepho nenumberinEASmessagesandnewsreleasesifspecialassistanceisrequired. Helicopterpublicaddressuse(whenavailable).Intheeventofamanpowerorequipmentshortage,thefollowingapproachissuggestedasanalternative.Thesuggestedprocedureemploysastratifiedrandomsampleandatelephonesurvey.Thesizeofthesampl eisdependentontheexpectednumberofhouseholdsthatdonotcomplywiththeAdvisorytoEvacuate.Itisreasonabletoassumeforthepurposeofestimatingsamplesizethatatleast80percentofthepopulationwithintheEPZwillcomplywiththeAdvisorytoEvacuate.Webeliev eitisreasonabletoassume,forthepurposeofestimatingsamplesizethatatleast80percentofthepopulationwithintheEPZwillcomplywiththeAdvisorytoEvacuate.Onthisbasis,ananalysiscouldbeundertaken(seeTable12 1)toyieldanes timatedsamplesizeofapproximately300.Theconfirmationprocessshouldstartatabout21/2hoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate,whichiswhenapproximately90percentofevacueeshavecompletedtheirmobilizationactivities(seeFigure5 4).Atthistime,virtuallyallevacueeswillhavedepartedontheirrespectivetripsandthelocaltelephonesystemwillbelargelyfreeoftraffic.AsindicatedinTable12 1,approximately71/2personhoursareneededtocompletethetelephonesurvey.Ifsixpeopleareassignedtothistask,eachdialingadifferentsetoftelephoneexchanges(e.g.,eachpersoncanbeassignedadifferentse tofPAZs),thentheconfirmationprocesswillextendoveratimeframeofabout75minutes.Thus,theconfirmationshouldbecompletedbeforetheevacuatedareaiscleared.Ofcourse,fewerpeoplewouldbeneededforthissurveyiftheEvacuationRegionwereonlyaportionofth eEPZ.Useofmodernautomatedcomputercontrolleddialingequipmentorothertechnologies(e.g.,reverse911orequivalent,ifavailable)cansignificantlyreducethemanpowerrequirementsandthetimerequiredtoundertakethistypeofconfirmationsurvey.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation12 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Ifthismethodisindeedusedbytheoffsiteagencies,considerationshouldbegiventomaintainalistoftelephonenumberswithintheEPZintheEOCatalltimes.Suchalistcouldbepurchasedfromvendorsandcouldbeperiodicallyupdated.Asindicatedabove,theconfirmationprocessshouldnotbeginuntil21/2hoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate,toensurethathouseholdshavehadenoughtimetomobilize.This21/2 hourtimeframewillenabletelephoneoperatorstoarriveattheirworkplace,obtainacalllistandpreparetomakethenecessaryphonecalls.Shouldthenumberoftelephoneresponses(i.e.,peoplestillathome)exceed20percent,thenthetelepho nesurveyshouldberepeatedafteranhour'sintervaluntiltheconfirmationprocessiscompleted.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation12 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table12 1.EstimatedNumberofTelephoneCallsRequiredforConfirmationofEvacuationProblemDefinitionEstimatenumberofphonecalls,n,neededtoascertaintheproportion,Fofhouseholdsthathavenotevacuated.

Reference:

Burstein,H.,AttributeSampling,McGrawHill,1971Given: No.ofhouseholdsplusotherfacilities,N,withintheEPZ(est.)=59,000 Est.proportion,F,ofhouseholdsthatwillnotevacuate=0.20 Allowableerrormargin,e:0.05 Confidencelevel,:0.95(impliesA=1.96)ApplyingTable10ofcitedreference,Finitepopulationcorrection:

Thus,some300telephonecallswillconfirmthatapproximately20percentofthepopulationhasnotevacuated.Ifonly10percentofthepopulationdoesnotcomplywiththeAdvisorytoEvacuate,thentherequiredsamplesize,n F=215.

Est.PersonHourstocomplete300telephonecallsAssume: Timetodialusingtouchtone(randomselectionoflistednumbers):30seconds Timefor6rings(noanswer):36seconds Timefor4ringsplusshortconversation:60sec. Intervalbetweencalls:20sec.PersonHours:

APPENDIXAGlossaryofTrafficEngineeringTerms SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationA 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1A. GLOSSARYOFTRAFFICENGINEERINGTERMSTableA 1.GlossaryofTrafficEngineeringTermsTermDefinitionAnalysisNetworkAgraphicalrepresentationofthegeometrictopologyofaphysicalroadwaysystem,whichiscomprisedofdirectionallinksandnodes.LinkAnetworklinkrepresentsaspecific,one directionalsectionofroadway.Alinkhasbothphysical(length,numberoflanes,topology,etc.)andoperational(turnmovementpercentages,servicerate,free flowspeed)characteristics.MeasuresofEffectiven essStatisticsdescribingtrafficoperationsonaroadwaynetwork.NodeAnetworknodegenerallyrepresentsanintersectionofnetworklinks.Anodehascontrolcharacteristics,i.e.,theallocationofservicetimetoeachapproachlink.OriginAlocationattachedtoanetworklink,withintheEPZorShadowRegion,wheretripsaregeneratedataspecifiedrateinvehiclesperhour(vph).Thesetripsentertheroadwaysystemtotraveltotheirrespectivedestinations.PrevailingRoadwayandTrafficConditionsRelatestothephysicalfeaturesoftheroadway,thenature(e.g.,composition)oftrafficontheroadwayandtheambientconditions(weather,visibility,pavementconditions,etc.).ServiceRateMaximumrateatwhichvehicles,executingaspecificturnmaneuver,canbedischargedfromasectionofroadwayattheprevailingconditions,expressedinvehiclespersecond(vps)orvehiclesperhour(vph).ServiceVolumeMaximumnumberofvehicleswhichcanpassoverasectionofroadwayinonedirectionduringaspecifiedtimeperiodwithoperatingconditionsataspecifiedLevelofService(TheServiceVolumeattheupperboundofLevelofService,E,equalsCapacity).ServiceVolumeisusuallyexpressedasvehiclesperhour(vph).SignalCycl eLengthThetotalelapsedtimetodisplayallsignalindications,insequence.Thecyclelengthisexpressedinseconds.SignalIntervalAsinglecombinationofsignalindications.Theintervaldurationisexpressedinseconds.Asignalphaseiscomprisedofasequenceofsignalintervals,usuallygreen ,yellow,red.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationA 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TermDefinitionSignalPhaseAsetofsignalindications(andintervals)whichservicesaparticularcombinationoftrafficmovementsonselectedapproachestotheintersection.Thephasedurationisexpressedinseconds.Traffic(Trip)AssignmentAprocessofassigningtraffictopathsoftravelinsuchawayastosatisfyalltripobjectives(i.e.,thedesireofeac hvehicletotravelfromaspecifiedorigininthenetworktoaspecifieddestination)andtooptimizesomestatedobjectiveorcombinationofobjectives.Ingeneral,theobjectiveisstatedintermsofminimizingageneralized"cost".Forexample,"cost"maybeexpressedintermsoftraveltime.TrafficDensityThenumberofvehiclesthatoccupyonelaneofaroadwaysectionofspecifiedlengthatapointintime,expressedasvehiclespermile(vpm).Traffic(Trip)Distribution Aprocessfordeterminingthedestinationsofal ltrafficgeneratedattheorigins.TheresultoftentakestheformofaTripTable,whichisamatrixoforigin destinationtrafficvolumes.TrafficSimulationAcomputermodeldesignedtorepl icatethereal worldoperationofvehiclesonaroadwaynetwork,soastoprovidestatisticsdescribingtrafficperformance.ThesestatisticsarecalledMeasuresofEffectiven ess.TrafficVolumeThenumberofvehiclesthatpassoverasectionofroadwayinonedirection,expressedinvehiclesperhour(vph).Whereapplicable,trafficvolumemaybestratifiedbyturnmovement.TravelModeDistinguishesbetweenprivateauto,bus,rail,pedestrianandairtravelmodes.TripTableorOrigin DestinationMatrixArect angularmatrixortable,whoseentriescontainthenumberoftripsgeneratedateachspecifiedorigin,duringaspecifiedtimeperiod,thatareattractedto(andtraveltoward)eachofitsspecifieddestinations.Thesevaluesareexpressedinvehiclesperhour(vph)orinvehicles.TurningCapacityThecapacit yassociatedwiththatcomponentofthetrafficstreamwhichexecutesaspecifiedturnmaneuverfromanapproachatanintersection.

APPENDIXBDTRAD:DynamicTrafficAssignmentandDistributionModel SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationB 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1B. DYNAMICTRAFFICASSIGNMENTANDDISTRIBUTIONMODELThissectiondescribestheintegrateddynamictripassignmentanddistributionmodelnamedDTRAD(DynamicTrafficAssignmentandDistribution)thatisexpresslydesignedforuseinanalyzingevacuationscenarios.DTRADemployslogitbasedpath choiceprinciplesandisoneofthemodelsoftheDYNEVIISystem.TheDTRADmoduleimplementspath basedDynamicTrafficAssignment(DTA)sothattimedependentOrigin Destination(OD)tripsare"assigned"toroutesoverthenetworkbasedonprevailingtrafficconditions.ToapplytheDYNEVIISystem,th eanalystmustspecifythehighwaynetwork,linkcapacityinformation,thetime varyingvolumeoftrafficgeneratedatallorigincentroidsand,optionally,asetofaccessiblecandidatedestinationnodesontheperipheryoftheEPZforselectedorigins.DTRADcalculatestheoptimaldynamictripdistribution(i.e.,tripdestin ations)andtheoptimaldynamictripassignment(i.e.,triprouting)ofthetrafficgeneratedateachoriginnodetravelingtoitssetofcandidatedestinationnodes,soastominimizeevacueetravel"cost".OverviewofIntegratedDistributionandAssignmentModelTheunderlyingpremiseisthattheselectionofdestinationsandroutesisintrinsicallycoupledinanevacuationscenario.Thatis,peopleinvehiclesseektotraveloutofanareaofpotentialriskasrapidlyaspossiblebyselectingthe"best"routes.Themodelisdesignedtoidentifythese"best"routesinamannerthatrealisticallydistributesvehiclesfromoriginstodestinationsandroutesthemoverthehighwaynetwork,inaconsistentandoptimalmanner,reflectingevacueebehavior.Foreachorigin,asetof"candidatedestinationnodes"isselectedbythesoftwarelogicandbytheanalysttoreflectthedesirebyevacueestotravelawayfromthepowerplantandtoaccessmajorhighways.Thespecificdestinationnodeswithinthissetthatareselectedbytravelersandtheselectionoftheconnectingpathsoftravel,arebothdeterminedbyDTRAD.ThisdeterminationismadebyalogitbasedpathchoicemodelinDTRAD,soastominimizethetrip"cost",asdiscussedlater.Thetrafficloadingonthenetworkandtheconsequentoperationaltrafficenvironmentofthenetwork(density,speed,throughputoneachlink)varyovertimeastheevacuationtakesplace.TheDTRADmodel,whichisinterfacedwiththeDYNEVsimu lationmodel,executesasuccessionof"sessions"whereinitcomputestheoptimalroutingandselectionofdestinationnodesfortheconditionsthatexistatthattime.InterfacingtheDYNEVSimulationModelwithDTRADTheDYNEVIIsystemreflectsNRCguidancethatevacueeswillseektotravelinageneraldirectionawayfromthelocationofthehazardousevent.AnalgorithmwasdevelopedtosupporttheDTRADmodelindynamicallyvaryingtheTripTable(O Dmatrix)overtimefromoneDTRADsessiontothenext.Anothe ralgorithmexecutesa"mapping"fromthespecified"geometric"network(link nodeanalysisnetwork)thatrepresentsthephysicalhighwaysystem,toa"path"networkthatrepresentsthevehicle[turn]movements.DTRADcomputationsareperformedonthe"path"network:DYNEVsimulationmodel,onthe"geometric"network.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationB 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DTRADDescriptionDTRADistheDTAmodulefortheDYNEVIISystem.Whentheroadnetworkunderstudyislarge,multipleroutingoptionsareusuallyavailablebetweentriporiginsanddestinations.TheproblemofloadingtrafficdemandsandpropagatingthemoverthenetworklinksiscalledNetworkLoadingandisaddressedbyDYNEVIIusingmacroscopictrafficsimulationmodeling.TrafficassignmentdealswithcomputingthedistributionofthetrafficovertheroadnetworkforgivenO Ddemandsandisamodeloftheroutechoiceofthedrivers.Traveldemandchangessignificantlyovertime,andtheroadnetworkmayhavetimedependentcharacteristics,e.g.,time varyingsignaltimingorreducedroadcapacitybecauseoflaneclosure,ortrafficcongestion.Toconsiderthesetimedependencies,DTAproceduresarerequired.TheDTRADDTAmodulerepresentsthedynamicroutechoicebehaviorofdrivers,usingthespecificationofdynamicorigindestinationmatricesasflowinput.Driverschoosetheirroutesthroughthenetworkbasedonthetravelcosttheyexperience(asdeterminedbyth esimulationmodel).Thisallowstraffictobedistributedoverthenetworkaccordingtothetime dependentconditions.ThemodelingprinciplesofD TRADinclude: Itisassumedthatdriversnotonlyselectthebestroute(i.e.,lowestcostpath)butsomealsoselectlessattractiveroutes.ThealgorithmimplementedbyDTRADarchivesseveral"efficient"routesforeachO Dpairfromwhichthedriverschoose. Thechoiceofonerouteoutofasetofpossibleroutesisanoutcomeof"discretechoicemodeling".Givenasetofroutesandtheirgeneralizedcosts,thepercentagesofdriversthatchooseeachrouteiscomputed.Themostprevalentmodelfordiscretechoicemodelingisthelogitmodel.DTRADusesavariantofPath Size Logitmodel(PSL).PSLovercomesthedrawbackofthetraditionalmultinomiallogitmodelbyincorporatinganadditionaldeterministicpathsizecorrectiontermtoaddresspathoverlappingintherandomutilityexpr ession. DTRADexecutestheTAalgorithmonanabstractnetworkrepresentationcalled"thepathnetwork"whichisbuiltfromtheactualphysicallink nodeanalysisnetwork.Thisexecutioncontinuesuntilastablesituationisreached:thevolumesandtraveltimesontheedgesofthepathnetworkdonotchangesignificantlyfromoneiterationtothenext.Thecriteriaforthisconvergencearedefinedbytheuser. Travel"cost"playsacrucialroleinroutechoice.InDTRAD,pathcostisalinearsummationofthegeneralizedcostofeachlinkthatcomprisesthepath.Thegeneralizedcostforalink,a,isexpressedasaaaactls,where a c isthegeneralizedcostforlinka,and , ,and arecostcoefficientsforlinktraveltime,distance,andsupplementalcost,respectively.Distanceandsupplementalcostsaredefinedasinvariantpropertiesofthenetworkmodel,whiletraveltimeisadynamicpropertydictatedbyprevailingtrafficconditions.TheDYNEVsimulationmodel SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationB 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1computestraveltimesonalledgesinthenetworkandDTRADusesthatinformationtoconstantlyupdatethecostsofpaths.Theroutechoicedecisionmodelinthenextsimulationiterationusestheseupdatedvaluestoadjusttheroutechoicebehavior.Thisway,trafficdemandsaredynamicallyre assignedbasedontimedependentconditions.TheinteractionbetweentheDTRADtrafficassignmentandDYNEVIIsimulationmodelsisdepictedinFigureB 1.EachroundofinteractioniscalledaTrafficAssignmentSession(TAsession).ATAsessioniscomposedofmultipleiterations,markedasloopBinthefigure. Thesupplementalcostisbasedonthe"survivaldistribution"(avariationoftheexponentialdistribution).TheInverseSurvivalFunctionisa"cost"terminDTRADtorepresentthepotentialriskoftraveltowardtheplant:s a=

ln(p),0pl; 0p=d n=Distanceofnode,n,fromtheplantd 0=Distancefromtheplantwherethereiszerorisk=ScalingfactorThevalueofd o=15miles,theouterdistanceoftheshadowregion.Notethatthesupplementalcost,s a,oflink,a,is(high,low),ifitsdownstreamnode,n,is(near,farfrom)thepowerplant.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationB 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NetworkEquilibriumIn1952,JohnWardropwrote:Underequilibriumconditionstrafficarrangesitselfincongestednetworksinsuchawaythatnoindividualtripmakercanreducehispathcostsbyswitchingroutes.Theabovestatementdescribesthe"UserEquilibrium"definition,alsocalledthe"SelfishDriverEquilibrium".Itisahypothesisthatrepres entsa[hopeful]conditionthatevolvesovertimeasdriverssearchoutalternativeroutestoidentifythoseroutesthatminimizetheirrespective"costs".Ithasbeenfoundthatthis"equilibrium"objectivetominimizecostsislargelyrealizedbymostdriverswhoroutinelytakethesametripoverthesamenetworkatthesametime(i.e.,commuters).Effectively,suchdrivers"learn"whichroutesarebestforthemovertime.Thus,thetrafficenvironment"settlesdown"toanear equilibriumstate.Clearly,sinceanemergencyevacuationisasudden,uniqueevent,itdoesnotconstitutealong termlearningexperiencewhichcanachieveanequilibriu mstate.Consequently,DTRADwasnotdesignedasanequilibriumsolution,buttorepresentdriversinanewandunfamiliarsituation,whorespondinaflexiblemannertoreal timeinformation(eitherbroadcastorobserved)insuchawayastominimizetheirrespectivecostsoftravel.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationB 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureB 1.FlowDiagramofSimulationDTRADInterfaceStartofnextDTRADSession Set Clocktime.ArchiveSystemStateatDefinelatestLinkTurnPercentagesExecuteSimulationModelfromtime,(burntime)ProvideDTRADwithlinkMOEattime,ExecuteDTRADiteration; GetnewTurnPercentagesRetrieveSystemStateat;ApplynewLinkTurnPercentsDTRADiterationconverges?

Nextiteration Simulatefrom(DTAsessionduration)SetClockto ABA Yes No B APPENDIXCDYNEVTrafficSimulationModel SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationC 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1C. DYNEVTRAFFICSIMULATIONMODELTheDYNEVtrafficsimulationmodelisamacroscopicmodelthatdescribestheoperationsoftrafficflowintermsofaggregatevariables:vehicles,flowrate,meanspeed,volume,density,queuelength,oneachlink ,foreachturnmovement,duringeachTimeInterval(simulationtimestep).Themodelgeneratestripsfr om"sources"andfromEntryLinksandintroducesthemontotheanalysisnetworkatratesspecifiedbytheanalystbasedonthemobilizationtimedistributions.Themodelsimulatesthemovementsofallvehiclesonallnetworklinksovertimeuntilthenetworkisempty.Atintervals,themodeloutputsMeasuresofEffectiveness(MOE)suchasthoselistedinTableC 1.ModelFeat uresInclude: Explicitconsiderationistakenofthevariationindensityoverthetimestep;aniterativeprocedureisemployedtocalculateanaveragedensityoverthesimulationtimestepforthepurposeofcomputingameanspeedformovingvehicles. Multipleturnmovementscanbeservicedononelink;aseparatealgorithmisusedtoestimateth enumberof(fractional)lanesassignedtothevehiclesperformingeachturnmovement,based,inpart,ontheturnpercentagesprovidedbytheDTRADmodel. Atanypointintime,trafficflowonalinkissubdividedintotwoclassifications:queuedandmovingvehicles.Thenumberofvehiclesineachclassificationiscomputed.Vehiclespillback,stratifiedbyturnmovementforeachnetworklink,isexplicitlyconsideredandquantified.Thepropagationofstoppingwavesfromlinktolinkiscomputedwithineachtimestepofthesimulation.Thereisno"verticalstacking"ofqueuesonalink. Anylinkca naccommodate"sourceflow"fromzonesviasidestreetsandparkingfacilitiesthatarenotexplicitlyrepresented.Thisflowrepresentstheevacuatingtripsthataregeneratedatthesource. Therelat ionbetweenthenumberofvehiclesoccupyingthelinkanditsstoragecapacityismonitoredeverytimestepforeverylinkandforeveryturnmovement.Iftheavailablestoragecapacityonalinkisexceededbythedemandforservice,thenthesimulatorappliesa"metering"ratetotheenteringtrafficfromboththeupstreamfeedersandsourcenodetoensurethattheavailablestoragecapacit yisnotexceeded. A"pathnetwork"thatrepresentsthespecifiedtrafficmovementsfromeachnetworklinkisconstructedbythemodel;thispathnetworkisutilizedbytheDTRADmodel. Atwo wayinterfacewithDTRAD:(1)provideslinktraveltimes;(2)receivesdatatha ttranslatesintolinkturnpercentages. ProvidesMOEtoanimationsoftware,EVAN CalculatesETEstatistics SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationC 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Alltrafficsimulationmodelsaredata intensive.TableC 2outlinesthenecessaryinputdataelements.Toprovideanefficientframeworkfordefiningthesespecifications,thephysicalhighwayenvironmentisrepresentedasanetwork.Theunidirectionallinksofthenetworkrepresentroadwaysections:rural,multi lane,urbanstreetsorfreeways.Thenodesofth enetworkgenerallyrepresentintersectionsorpointsalongasectionwhereageometricpropertychanges(e.g.alanedrop,changeingradeorfreeflowspeed).FigureC 1isanexampleofasmallnetworkrepresentation.Thefreewayisdefinedbythesequenceoflinks,(20,21),(21,22),and(22,23).Links(8001,19)and(3,8011)areEntryandExi tlinks,respectively.Anarterialextendsfromnode3tonode19andispartiallysubsumedwithinagridnetwork.Notethatlinks(21,22)and(17,19)aregrade separated.TableC 1.SelectedMeasuresofEffectivenessOutputbyDYNEVIIMeasureUnitsAppliesToVehiclesDischargedVehiclesLink,Network,ExitLinkSpeedMiles/Hours(mph)Link,NetworkDensityVehicles/Mile/LaneLinkLevelofServiceLOSLinkContentVehiclesNetworkTravelTimeVehicle hoursNetworkEvacuatedVehiclesVehiclesNetwork,ExitLinkTripTravelTimeVehicleminutes/tripNetworkCapacityUtilizationPercentExitLinkAttractionPercentoftotalevacuatingvehiclesExitLinkMaxQueueVehiclesNode,ApproachTimeofMaxQueueHours:minutesNode,ApproachRouteStatisticsLength(mi);MeanSpeed(mph);TravelTime(min)RouteMeanTravelTimeMinutesEvacuationTrips;Network SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationC 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableC 2.InputRequirementsfortheDYNEVIIModelHIGHWAYNETWORK Linksdefinedbyupstreamanddownstreamnodenumbers Linklengths Numberoflanes(upto9)andchannelization Turnbays(1to3lanes) Destination(exit)nodes Networktopologydefinedintermsofdownstreamnodesforeachreceivinglink NodeCoordinates(X,Y) NuclearPowerPlantCoordinates(X,Y)GENERATEDTRAFFICVOLUMES Onallentrylinksandsourcenodes(origins),byTimePeriodTRAFFICCONTROLSPECIFICATIONS Trafficsignals:link specific,turnmovementspecific Signalcontroltreatedasfixedtimeoractuated Locationoftrafficcontrolpoints(thesearerepresentedasactuatedsignals) StopandYieldsigns Right turn on red(RTOR) Routediversionspecifications Turnrestrictions Lanecontrol(e.g.laneclosure,movement specific)DRIVER'SANDOPERATIONALCHARACTERISTICS Driver's(vehicle specific)responsemechanisms:free flowspeed,dischargeheadway Busroutedesignation.DYNAMICTRAFFICASSIGNMENT Candidatedestinationnodesforeachorigin(optional) DurationofDTAsessions Durationofsimulation"burntime" DesirednumberofdestinationnodesperoriginINCIDENTS IdentifyandScheduleofclosedlanes IdentifyandScheduleofclosedlinks SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationC 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureC 1.RepresentativeAnalysisNetwork 8001 8011 3 6 9 12 14 15 16 19 17 2 8107 8 8012 13 22 8009 8010 8005 23 8003 8104 5 10 11 8014 25 24 21 8008 80078006 8004 8024 208002 Entry,ExitNodesarenumbered8xxx SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationC 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1C.1 MethodologyC.1.1 TheFundamentalDiagramItisnecessarytodefinethefundamentaldiagramdescribingflow densityandspeed densityrelationships.Ratherthan"settlingfor"atriangularrepresentation,amorerealisticrepresentationthatincludesa"capacitydrop",(I R)atthecriticaldensitywhenflowconditionsentertheforcedflowregime,isdevelopedandcalibratedforeachlink.Thisrepresentation,showninFigureC 2,assertsaconstantfreespeeduptoadensity, ,andthenalinearreductioninspeedintherange,thedensityatcapacity.Intheflow densityplane,aquadraticrelationshipisprescribedintherange,whichroughlyrepresentsthe"stop and go"conditionofseverecongestion.Thevalueofflowrate,correspondingtoisapproximatedatAlinearrelationshipbetweencompletesthediagramshowninFigureC 2.TableC 3isaglossaryofterms.Thefundamentaldiagramisappliedtomovingtrafficoneverylink.Thespecifiedcalibrationvaluesforeachlinkare:(1)Freespeed,;(2)Capacity,;(3)Criticaldensity, (4)CapacityDropFactor,R=0.9;(5)Jamdensity,Then,SettingthenforItcanbeshownthatC.1.2 TheSimulationModelThesimulationmodelsolvesasequenceof"unitproblems".Eachunitproblemcomputesthemovementoftrafficonalink,foreachspecifiedturnmovement,overaspecifiedtimeinterval(TI)whichservesasthesimulationtimestepforalllinks.FigureC 3isarepresentationoftheunitprobleminthetime distanceplane.TableC 3isaglossaryoftermsthatarereferencedinthefollowingdescriptionoftheunitproblemprocedure.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationC 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureC 2.FundamentalDiagrams SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationC 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureC 3.AUNITProblemConfigurationwitht 1>0 meDistanceDownUp SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationC 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableC 3.GlossaryCapThemaximumnumberofvehicles,ofaparticularmovement,thatcandischargefromalinkwithinatimeinterval.EThenumberofvehicles,ofaparticularmovement,thatenterthelinkoverthetimeinterval.Theportion,E TI ,canreachthestop barwithintheTI.G/CThegreentime:cycletimeratiothatservicesthevehiclesofaparticularturnmovementonalink.hThemeanqueuedischargeheadway,seconds.kDensityinvehiclesperlanepermile.TheaveragedensityofmovingvehiclesofaparticularmovementoveraTI,onalink.LThelengthofthelinkinfeet.Thequeuelengthinfeetofaparticularmovement,atthe[beginning,end]ofatimeinterval.LNThenumberoflanes,expressedasafloatingpointnumber,allocatedtoserviceaparticularmovementonalink.Themeaneffectivelength ofaqueuedvehicleincludingthevehiclespacing,feet.MMeteringfactor(Multiplier):1.Thenumberofmovingvehiclesonthelink,ofaparticularmovement,thataremovingatthe[beginning,end]ofthetimeinterval.Thesevehiclesareassumedtobeofequalspacing,overthelengthoflinkupstreamofthequeue.OThetotalnumberofvehiclesofaparticularmovementthataredischargedfromalinkoveratimeinterval.Thecomponentsofthevehiclesofaparticularmovementthataredischargedfromalinkwithinatimeinterval:vehiclesthatwereQueuedatthebeginningoftheTI;vehiclesthatwereMovingwithinthelinkatthebeginningoftheTI;vehiclesthatEnteredthelinkduringtheTI.Thepercentage,expressedasafraction,ofthetotalflowonthelinkthatexecutesaparticularturnmovement,x.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationC 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Thenumberofqueuedvehiclesonthelink,ofaparticularturnmovement,atthe[beginning,end]ofthetimeinterval.Themaximumflowratethatcanbeservicedbyalinkforaparticularmovementintheabsenceofacontroldevice.Itisspecifiedbytheanalystasanestimateoflinkcapacity,baseduponafieldsurvey,withreferencetotheHCM.RThefactorthatisappliedtothecapacityofalinktorepresentthe"capacitydrop"whentheflowconditionmovesintotheforcedflowregime.Thelowercapacityatthatpointisequalto.RCapTheremainingcapacityavailabletoservicevehiclesofaparticularmovementafterthatqueuehasbeencompletelyserviced,withinatimeinterval,expressedasvehicles.Servicerateformovementx,vehiclesperhour(vph).Vehiclesofaparticularturnmovementthatenteralinkoverthefirstsecondsofatimeinterval,canreachthestop bar(intheabsenceofaqueuedown stream)withinthesametimeinterval.TIThetimeinterval,inseconds,whichisusedasthesimulationtimestep.vThemeanspeedoftravel,infeetpersecond(fps)ormilesperhour(mph),ofmovingvehi clesonthelink.ThemeanspeedofthelastvehicleinaqueuethatdischargesfromthelinkwithintheTI.Thisspeeddiffersfromthemeanspeedofmovingvehicles,v.WThewidthoftheintersectioninfeet.Thisisthedifferencebetweenthelinklengthwhichextendsfromstop bartostop barandtheblocklength.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationC 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Theformulationandtheassociatedlogicpresentedbelowaredesignedtosolvetheunitproblemforeachsweepoverthenetwork(discussedbelow),foreachturnmovementservicedoneachlinkthatcomprisestheevacuationnetwork,andforeachTIoverthedurationoftheevacuation. 1. Forthefirstsweep,s=1,ofthisTI,getinitialestimatesofmeandensity,theR-factor,andenteringtraffic,usingthevaluescomputedforthefinalsweepofthepriorTI.Foreachsubsequentsweep,aretherelevantturnpercentagesfromfeederlink,i,anditstotaloutflow(possiblymetered)overthisTI;Sisthetotalsourceflow(possiblymetered)duringthecurrentTI.Setiterationcounter,n=0,2. usingtheanalyticalrepresentationsofthefundamentaldiagram.3. 4. 5. Endif6. 7.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationC 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 9.10.EndifEndifEndif11. where=densityatthebeginningoftheTI=densityattheendoftheTI=densityatthemid pointoftheTIAllvaluesofdensityapplyonlytothemovingvehicles.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationC 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TIt 3Q'et 1L 3vQ e vv QQ bM b12. EndifComputationofunitproblemisnowcomplete.Checkforexcessiveinflowcausingspillback.13. Thenumberofexcessvehiclesthatcausespillbackis:whereWisthewidthoftheupstreamintersection.Topreventspillback,metertheoutflowfromthefeederapproachesandfromthesourceflow,S,duringthisTIbytheamount,SB.Thatis,setThismeteringfactorisassignedappropriatelytoallfeederlinksandtothesourceflow,tobeappliedduringthenextnetworksweep,discussedlater.AlgorithmAThisanalysisaddressestheflowenvironmentoveraTIduringwhichmovingvehiclescanjoinastandingordischargingqueue.Forthecaseshown,aqueueoflength,formedbythatportionofthatreachesthestop barwithintheTI,butcouldnotdischargeduetoinadequatecapacity.Thatis,Thisqueuelength,canbeextendedtobytrafficenteringtheapproachduringthecurrentTI,travelingatspeed,v,andreachingtherearofthequeuewithintheTI.Aportionoftheenteringvehicles,willlikelyjointhequeue.ThisanalysiscalculatesfortheinputvaluesofL,TI,v,E,t, ,LN,.

Recognizingthatthefirsttwotermsontherighthandsidecancel,solvefortoobtain:

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationC 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Ifthedenominator,ThecompleteAlgorithmAconsidersallflowscenarios;spacelimitationprecludesitsinclusion,here.C.1.3 LaneAssignmentThe"unitproblem"issolvedforeachturnmovementoneachlink.Thereforeitisnecessarytocalculateavalue,ofallocatedlanesforeachmovement,x.Ifinfactalllanesarespecifiedby,say,arrowspaintedonthepavement,eitherasfulllanesoraslaneswithinaturnbay,thentheproblemisfullydefined.Ifhoweverthereremainun channelizedlanesonalink,thenananalysisisundertakentosubdi videthenumberofthesephysicallanesintoturnmovementspecificvirtuallanes,LN x.C.2 ImplementationC.2.1 ComputationalProcedureThecomputationalprocedureforthismodelisshownintheformofaflowdiagramasFigureC 4.Asdiscussedearlier,thesimulationmodelprocessestrafficflowforeachlinkindependentlyoverTIthattheanalystspecifies;itisusually60secondsorlonger.Thefirststepistoexecut eanalgorithmtodefinethesequenceinwhichthenetworklinksareprocessedsothatasmanylinksaspossibleareprocessedaftertheirfeederlinksareprocessed,withinthesamenetworksweep.Sinceageneralnetworkwillhavemanyclosedloops,itisnotpossibletoguaranteethateverylinkprocessedwillhaveallofitsfeederlinksprocessedearlier.Theprocessingthencontinuesasasuccessionoftimestepsofduration,TI,untilthesimulationiscompleted.Withineachtimestep,theprocessingperformsaseriesof"sweeps"overallnetworklinks;thisisnecessarytoensurethatthetrafficflowissynchronousovertheentirenetwork.Specifically,thesweepensurescontinuityofflowamongallthenetworklinks;inthecontextofthismodel,thismeansthatthevaluesofE,M,andSareal ldefinedforeachlinksuchthattheyrepresentthesynchronousmovementoftrafficfromeachlinktoallofitsoutboundlinks.Thesesweepsalsoservetocomputethemeteringratesthatcontrolspillback.Withineachsweep,processingsolvesthe"unitproblem"foreachturnmovementoneachlink.WiththeturnmovementpercentagesforeachlinkprovidedbytheDTRADmodel,analgorithm SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationC 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1allocatesthenumberoflanestoeachmovementservicedoneachlink.Thetimingatasignal,ifany,appliedatthedownstreamendofthelink,isexpressedasaG/Cratio,thesignaltimingneededtodefinethisratioisaninputrequirementforthemodel.Themodelalsohasthecapabilityofrepresenting,withmacroscopicfidelity,theactionsofactuatedsignalsrespondingtothetime varyingcompetingdemandsontheapproachestotheintersection.Thesolutionoftheunitproblemyieldsthevaluesofthenumberofvehicles,O,thatdischargefromthelinkoverthetimeintervalandthenumberofvehiclesthatremainonthelinkattheendofthetimeintervalasstrat ifiedbyqueuedandmovingvehicles:Theprocedureconsiderseachmovementseparately(multi piping).Afterallnetworklinksareprocessedforagivennetworksweep,theupdatedconsistentvaluesofenteringflows,E;meteringrates,M;andsourceflows,Saredefinedsoastosatisfythe"nospillback"condition.Theprocedurethenperformstheunitproblemsolutionsforallnetworklinksduringthefollowingsweep.Experiencehasshownthatthesystemconverges(i.e.thevaluesofE,MandS"settledown"forallnetworklinks)injusttwosweepsifthenetworkisentirelyunder saturatedorinfoursweepsinthepresenceofextensivecongestionwithlinkspillback.(Theinitialsweepoverea chlinkusesthefinalvaluesofEandM,ofthepriorTI).AtthecompletionofthefinalsweepforaTI,theprocedurecomputesandstoresallmeasuresofeffectivenessforeachlinkandturnmovementforoutputpurposes.ItthenpreparesforthefollowingtimeintervalbydefiningthevaluesofforthestartofthenextTIasbeingthosevaluesofattheendofthepriorTI.Inthismanner,thesimulationmodelprocessesthetrafficflowovertimeuntiltheendoftherun.Notethatthereisnospace discretizationotherthanthespecificationofnetworklinks.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationC 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureC 4.FlowofSimulationProcessing(SeeGlossary:TableC 3) SequenceNetworkLinksNextTime step,ofduration,TINextsweep;DefineE,M,SforallLinksNextLinkNextTurnMovement,x Getlanes,ServiceRate,;GetinputstoUnitProblem:,ESolveUnitProblem:LastMovement?LastLink?LastSweep?Calc.,storeallLinkMOESetupnextTI:LastTime-step?DONE ABCDDCBANo No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationC 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1C.2.2 InterfacingwithDynamicTrafficAssignment(DTRAD)TheDYNEVIIsystemreflectsNRCguidancethatevacueeswillseektotravelinageneraldirectionawayfromthelocationofthehazardousevent.Thus,analgorithmwasdevelopedtoidentifyanappropriatesetofdestinationnodesforeachoriginbasedonitslocationandontheexpecteddirectionoftravel.ThisalgorithmalsosupportstheDTRADmodelindynamicallyvaryingtheTripTable(O Dmatrix)overtimefromoneDTRADsessiontothenext.FigureB 1depictstheinteractionofthesimulationmodelwiththeDTRADmodelintheDYNEVIIsystem.Asindicated,DYNEVIIperformsasuccessionofDTRAD"sessions";eachsuchsessioncomputestheturnlinkpercentagesforeachlinkthatremainconstantforthesessionduration,specifiedbytheanalyst.Theendproductistheassignmentoftrafficvolumesfromeachorigintopathsconnectingitwithitsdestinationsinsuchawayastominimizethenetwork widecostfunction.TheoutputoftheDTRADmodelisasetofupdatedlinkturnpercentageswhichrepresentthisassignmentoftraffic.AsindicatedinFigureB 1,thesimu lationmodelsupportstheDTRADsessionbyprovidingitwithoperationallinkMOEthatareneededbythepathchoicemodelandincludedintheDTRADcostfunction.TheseMOErepresenttheoperationalstateofthenetworkatatime,whichlieswithinthesessionduration,.This"burntime",isselectedbytheanalyst.ForeachDTRADiteration,thesimulationmodelcomputesthechangeinnetworkoperationsoverthisburntimeusingthelatestsetoflinkturnpercentagescomputedbytheDTRADmodel.UponconvergenceoftheDTRADiterativeprocedure,thesimulationmodelacceptsthelatestturnpercentagesprovidedbytheDTAmodel,returnstotheorigintime,andexecutesuntilitarrivesattheendoftheDTRADsessiondurationattime,AtthistimethenextDTAsessionislaunchedandthewholeprocessrepeatsuntiltheendoftheDYNEVIIrun.AdditionaldetailsarepresentedinAppendixB.

APPENDIXDDetailedDescriptionofStudyProcedure SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationD 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1D. DETAILEDDESCRIPTIONOFSTUDYPROCEDUREThisappendixdescribestheactivitiesthatwereperformedtocomputeEvacuationTimeEstimates.TheindividualstepsofthiseffortarerepresentedasaflowdiagraminFigureD 1.Eachnumberedstepinthedescriptionthatfollowscorrespondstothenumberedelementintheflowdiagram.Step1ThefirstactivitywastoobtainEPZboundaryinformationandcreateaGISbasemap.ThebasemapextendsbeyondtheShadowRegionwhichextendsapproximately15miles(radially)fromthepowerplantlocation.Thebasemapincorporatesthelocalroadwaytopology,asuitabletopographicbackgroundandtheEPZboundary.Step22010CensusblockinformationwasobtainedinGISformat.ThisinformationwasusedtoestimatetheresidentpopulationwithintheEPZandShadowRegion,seasonalresidents,andtodefinethespatialdistributionanddemographiccharacteristicsofthepopulationwithinthestudyarea.EmployeedatawereestimatedusingtheU.S.CensusBureau'sLongitudinalEmployer HouseholdDynamicsinteractivewebsite 1.Transientdatawereobtainedfromlocal/stateemergencymanagementagenciesandfromphonecallstotransientattractions.Informationconcerningschools,medicalandothertypesofspecialfacilitieswithintheEPZwasobtainedfromcountyandmunicipalsources,augmentedbytelephonecontactswiththeidentifiedfacilities.PopulationandspecialfacilitydatawithinMCBwereprovidedbyMCB.Step3Akickoffmeetingwasconductedwithmajorstakeholders(stateandlocalemergencymanagers,on siteandoff siteutilityemergencymanagers,localandstateagencies).Thepurposeofthekickoffmeetingwastopresentanoverviewoftheworkeffort,identifykeyagencypersonnel,andindicatethedatarequirementsforthestudy.Specif icrequestsforinformationwerepresentedtolocalemergencymanagers.UniquefeaturesofthestudyareawerediscussedtoidentifythelocalconcernsthatshouldbeaddressedbytheETEstudy.Step4Next,aphysicalsurveyoftheroadwaysysteminthestudyareawasconductedtodeterminethegeometricpropertiesofthehighwaysections,thechannelizationoflanesoneachsectionofroadway,whetherthereareanyturnrestrictionsorspecialtreatmentoftrafficatintersections,thetypeandfunctioningoftrafficcontroldevices,gatheringsignaltimingsforpre timedtrafficsignals,andtomakethenecessaryobservationsneededtoestimaterealisticvaluesofroadwaycapacity.1 http://lehdmap.did.census.gov/

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationD 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Step5AtelephonesurveyofhouseholdswithintheEPZwasconductedtoidentifyhouseholddynamics,tripgenerationcharacteristics,andevacuation relateddemographicinformationoftheEPZpopulation.Thisinformationwasusedtodetermineimportantstudyfactorsincludingtheaveragenumberofevacuatingvehiclesusedbyeachhousehold,andthetimerequiredtoperformpre evacuationmobilizationactivities.Step6Acomputerizedrepresentationofthephysicalroadwaysystem,calledalink nodeanalysisnetwork,wasdevelopedusingtheUNITESsoftwaredevelopedbyKLD.Oncethegeometryofthenetworkwascompleted,thenetworkwascalibratedusingtheinformationgatheredduringtheroadsurvey(Step4).Estimatesofhighwaycapacityforeachlinkandotherlink specificcharacteristicswereintroducedtothenetworkdescription.Trafficsignaltimingswereinputaccordingly.Thelink nodeanalysisnetworkwasimportedintoaGISmap.2010Censusdatawereoverlaidinthemap,andorigincentroidswheretripswouldbegeneratedduringtheevacuationprocesswereassignedtoappropriatelinks.Step7TheEPZissubdividedinto5PAZs.Basedonwinddirectionandspeed,Regions(groupingsofPAZs)thatmaybeadvisedtoevacuate,weredeveloped.Theneedforevacuationcanoccuroverarangeoftime of day,day of week,seasonalandweather relatedconditions.Scenariosweredevelopedtocapturethevariationinevacuationdemand,highwaycapa cityandmobilizationtime,fordifferenttimeofday,dayoftheweek,timeofyear,andweatherconditions.Step8TheinputstreamfortheDYNEVIImodel,whichintegratesthedynamictrafficassignmentanddistributionmodel,DTRAD,withtheevacuationsimulationmodel,wascreatedforaprototypeevacuationcase-theevacuationoftheentireEPZforarepresentativescenario.Step9Aftercreatingthisinputstream,theDYNEVIISystemwasexecutedontheprototypeevacuationcasetocomputeevacuatingtrafficroutingpatternsconsistentwiththeappropriateNRCguidelines.DYNEVIIcontainsanextensivesuiteofdatadiagnosticswhichcheckthecompletenessandconsistencyoftheinputdataspecified.Theanalystreviewsallwarninganderrormessagesproducedbythemodelandthencorrectsthedatabasetocreateaninputstreamthatproperlyexecutestocompletion.Themodelassignsdestinationstoallorigincent roidsconsistentwitha(general)radialevacuationoftheEPZandShadowRegion.Theanalystmayoptionallysupplementand/orreplacethes emodel assigneddestinations,basedonprofessionaljudgment,afterstudyingthetopologyoftheanalysishighwaynetwork.Themodelproduceslinkandnetwork widemeasuresofeffectivenessaswellasestimatesofevacuationtime.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationD 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Step10Theresultsgeneratedbytheprototypeevacuationcasearecriticallyexamined.Theexaminationincludesobservingtheanimatedgraphics(usingtheEVANsoftwarewhichoperatesondataproducedbyDYNEVII)andreviewingthestatisticsoutputbythemodel.Thisisalaborintensiveactivity,requiringthedirectparticipationofskilledengineerswhopossessthenecessarypracticalexperien cetointerprettheresultsandtodeterminethecausesofanyproblemsreflectedintheresults.Essentially,theapproachistoidentifythosebottlenecksinthenetworkthatrepresentlocationswherecongestedconditionsarepronouncedandtoidentifythecauseofthiscongestion.Thiscausecantakema nyforms,eitherasexcessdemandduetohighratesoftripgeneration,improperrouting,ashortfallofcapacity,orasaquantitativeflawinthewaythephysicalsystemwasrepresentedintheinputstream.Thisexaminationleadstooneoftwoconclusions: Theresultsaresatisfactory;or Theinputst reammustbemodifiedaccordingly.Thisdecisionrequires,ofcourse,theapplicationoftheuser'sjudgmentandexperiencebasedupontheresultsobtainedinpreviousapplicationsofthemodelandacomparisonoftheresultsofthelatestprototypeevacuationcaseiterationwiththepreviousones.Iftheresultsaresatisfactoryintheopinionoftheuser,thenth eprocesscontinueswithStep13.Otherwise,proceedtoStep11.Step11Therearemany"treatments"availabletotheuserinresolvingapparentproblems.Thesetreatmentsrangefromdecisionstoreroutethetrafficbyassigningadditionalevacuationdestinationsforoneormoresources,imposingturnrestrictionswheretheycanproducesignificantimprovementsincapacity,changingthecontroltreatmentatcriticalintersectionssoastoprovideimprovedserviceforoneormoremovements,orinprescribingspecifictreatmentsforchannelizingtheflowsoastoexpeditethemovementoftrafficalongmajorroadwaysystems.Such"treatments"taketheformofmodificationstotheoriginalprototypeevacuationcaseinputstream.Alltreatmentsaredesignedtoimprovetherepr esentationofevacuationbehavior.Step12Asnotedabove,thechangestotheinputstreammustbeimplementedtoreflectthemodificationsundertakeninStep11.Atthecompletionofthisactivity,theprocessreturnstoStep9wheretheDYNEVIISystemisagainexecuted.Step13Evacuationoftransit dependentevacueesandspecialfacilitiesareincludedintheevacuationanalysis.Fixedroutingfortransitbusesandforschoolbuses,ambulances,andothertransitvehiclesareintroducedintothefinalprototypeevacuationcasedataset.DYNEVIIgenerates SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationD 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1routespecificspeedsovertimeforuseintheestimationofevacuationtimesforthetransitdependentandspecialfacilitypopulationgroups.Step14Theprototypeevacuationcasewasusedasthebasisforgeneratingallregionandscenario specificevacuationcasestobesimulated.ThisprocesswasautomatedthroughtheUNITESuserinterface.Foreachspecificcase,thepopulationtobeevacuated,thetripgenerationdistributions,thehighwaycapacityandspeeds,andotherfactorsareadjustedtoproduceacustomizedcase specificdataset.Step15AllevacuationcasesareexecutedusingtheDYNEVIISystemtocomputeETE.Onceresultswereavailable,qualitycontrolprocedureswereusedtoassuretheresultswereconsistent,dynamicroutingwasreasonable,andtrafficcongestion/bottleneckswereaddressedproperly.Step16Oncevehicularevacuationresultsareaccepted,averagetravelspeedsfortransitandspecialfacilityrouteswereusedtocomputeevacuationtimeestimatesfortransit dependentpermanentresidents,schools,hospitals,andotherspecialfacilities.Step17Thesimulationresultsareanalyzed,tabulatedandgraphed.Theresultswerethendocumented,asrequiredbyNUREG/CR 7002.Step18Followingthecompletionofdocumentationactivities,theETEcriteriachecklist(seeAppendixN)wascompleted.Anappropriatereportreferenceisprovidedforeachcriterionprovidedinthechecklist.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationD 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 FigureD 1.FlowDiagramofActivitiesCreateGISBaseMap GatherCensusBlockandDemographicDataforStudyArea FieldSurveyofRoadwayswithinStudyAreaConductKickoffMeetingwithStakeholdersCreateandCalibrateLinkNodeAnalysisNetwork DevelopEvacuationRegionsandScenariosCreateandDebugDYNEVIIInputStreamConductTelephoneSurveyandDevelopTripGenerationCharacteristics ExecuteDYNEVIIforPrototypeEvacuationCase B A Step1 Step2 Step3 Step4 Step5 Step6 Step7 Step8 Step9 ExamineResultsofPrototypeEvacuationCaseusingEVANandDYNEVIIOutputModifyEvacuationDestinationsand/orDevelopTrafficControlTreatments A BModifyDatabasetoReflectChangestoPrototypeEvacuationCaseEstablishTransitandSpecialFacilityEvacuationRoutesandUpdateDYNEVIIDatabase GenerateDYNEVIIInputStreamsforAllEvacuationCases ExecuteDYNEVIItoComputeETEforAllEvacuationCases UseDYNEVIIAverageSpeedOutputtoComputeETEforTransitandSpecialFacilityRoutes DocumentationCompleteETECriteriaChecklist ResultsSatisfactory Step10 Step11 Step12 Step13 Step14 Step15 Step16 Step17 Step18 APPENDIXESpecialFacilityData SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationE 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1E. SPECIALFACILITYDATAThefollowingtableslistpopulationinformation,asof2012,forspecialfacilitiesthatarelocatedwithintheSONGSEPZ.Specialfacilitiesaredefinedasschools,preschools,daycarecenters,hospitalsandothermedicalcarefacilities.Transientpopulationdataisincludedinthetablesforrecreationalareasandlodgingfacilities.Employmen tdataisincludedinthetablesformajoremployers.Eachtableisgroupedbycounty.Thelocationofeachfacilityisdefinedbyitsstraight linedistance(miles)anddirection(magneticbearing)fromthecenterpointoftheplant.Mapsofeachschool,preschool,daycarecenter,recreationalarea,andlodgingfacilityarealsoprovided.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationE 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 1.SchoolswithintheEPZPAZDistance(miles)DirectionSchoolNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneEnrollmentOrangeCounty47.9NWBerniceAyerMiddleSchool1271SarmentosoSanClemente(949)366960788545.6NWClarenceLoboElementarySchool200AvenidaVistaMontanaSanClemente(949)366674046343.4NWConcordiaElementarySchool3120AvenidaDelPresidenteSanClemente(949)492306064645.7NWLasPalmasElementarySchool1101CallePuenteSanClemente(949)234533375146.9NWMarbleheadElementarySchool2410ViaTurquezaSanClemente(949)234533957745.2NWOurLadyofFatimaSchool105NLaEsperanzaSanClemente(949)492732028544.0NWOurSavior'sLutheranSchool200AvenidaSanPabloSanClemente(949)492616526046.0NWSanClementeHighSchool700AvenidaPicoSanClemente(949)4924165298246.9NWShorecliffsMiddleSchool240ViaSocorroSanClemente(949)4981660106145.5NWSt.Michael'sChristianAcademy107WMarquitaSanClemente(949)366946815547.9NWTrumanBenedictElementarySchool1251CalleSarmentosoSanClemente(949)498661769447.3NWVistaDelMarElementarySchool1130AvenidaTalegaSanClemente(949)2345950113747.3NWVistaDelMarMiddleSchool1130AvenidaTalegaSanClemente(949)2345950522510.6NWAmbuehlElementarySchool28001SanJuanCreekRoadSanJuanCapistrano(949)6610400558511.0NWBroderickMontessoriSchool24292DelPradoDanaPoint(949)443119370510.4NWCapistranoHomeSchool32972CallePerfectoSanJuanCapistrano(949)234922120511.1NWCapistranoValleyChristianSchools32032DelObispoStreetSanJuanCapistrano(949)493568349259.7NWCapoBeachCalvary25975DomingoAvenueCapistranoBeach(949)4932006225511.3NWDanaHillsHighSchool33333GoldenLanternDanaPoint(949)49666662788511.0NWDelObispoElementarySchool25591CaminoDelAvionSanJuanCapistrano(949)2345905467512.4NWJserraCatholicHighSchool26351JuniperoSerraRoadSanJuanCapistrano(949)4939307925510.9NWKinoshitaElementarySchool2ViaPositivaSanJuanCapistrano(949)4892131630510.9NWMarcoForsterMiddleSchool25601CaminoDelAvionSanJuanCapistrano(949)23459071444 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationE 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1PAZDistance(miles)DirectionSchoolNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneEnrollment511.1NWMissionParishSchool26801OrtegaHighwaySanJuanCapistrano(949)2341324320512.6NWMonarchBayMontessoriAcademy32920PacificCoastHighwayDanaPoint(949)240334412059.1NWPalisadesElementarySchool26462ViaSacramentoDanaPoint(949)4965942510513.8NWRanchoCapistranoSchool29251CaminoCapistranoSanJuanCapistrano(949)609870066511.2NWRichardHenryDanaElementarySchool24242LaCrestaDanaPoint(949)4965784376511.1NWRichardHenryDanaExceptionalNeedsSchool24242LaCrestaDriveDanaPoint(949)234550548512.2NWSaddlebackValleyChristianSchool26333OsoRoadSanJuanCapistrano(949)4434050590511.1NWSanJuanElementarySchool31642ElCaminoRealSanJuanCapistrano(949)493453366559.9NWSanJuanHillsHighSchool29211VistaMontanaSanJuanCapistrano(949)2345900655510.9NWSanJuanMontessori32143AlipazStreetSanJuanCapistrano(949)496292745511.4NWSerraHighSchool31422CaminoCapistranoSanJuanCapistrano(949)4939307175512.7NWSouthShoresChristianSchool32712CrownValleyParkwayDanaPoint(949)496503256510.5NWStEdwardSchool33866CalleLaPrimaveraDanaPoint(949)4961241750510.8NWSt.Margaret'sEpiscopalSchool31641LaNoviaSanJuanCapistrano(949)66101081222510.9NWStonebridgeDaySchool32091AlipazStSanJuanCapistrano(949)496677645513.6NWStoneybrookeChristianSchools26300ViaEscolarMissionViejo(949)3644407443OrangeCountyTotals:24,123SanDiegoCounty11.8NWSanOnofreSchool200PateRoadMCB(760)731436075812.0NWSanOnofreYouthCenterBldg51570MCB(760)4989166114SanDiegoCountyTotals:872TOTAL:24,995 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationE 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 2.PreschoolsandDaycareswithintheEPZPAZDistance(miles)DirectionSchoolNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneEnroll mentOrangeCounty46.3NWBrightHorizonsatSanClemente2015CalleFronteraSanClemente(949)492555514445.6NWClarenceLobo200AvenidaVistaMontanaSanClemente(949)366674010043.4NWConcordiaElementarySchool3120AvenidaDelPresidenteSanClemente(949)49230602446.5NWKindercareLearningCenter1141PuertaDelSolSanClemente(949)361486012847.6NWLaCristianitaPreschool35522CaminoCapistranoSanClemente(949)49614058545.7NWLasPalmasStatePreschool1101CallePuenteSanClemente(949)49234564846.9NWMarbleheadElementarySchool2410ViaTurquezaSanClemente(949)23453391644.0NWOurSavior'sLutheranPreschool200AvenidaSanPabloSanClemente(949)49261656048.5NWPalisadesUnitedMethodistPreschool27002CaminoDeEstrellaCapistranoBeach(949)66133758045.4NWSanClementePresbyterianPreschool119AvenidaDeLaEstrellaSanClemente(949)49261587945.1NWSanClementePreschool163AvenidaVictoriaSanClemente(949)49810257545.7NWSerraPreschool1005CallePuenteSanClemente(949)49281882445.6NWSt.Michael'sInfant/ToddlerCenter702NAvenidaDeLaEstrellaSanClemente(949)49225535846.5NWTalegaLifeChurchPreschool1040CalleNegocioSanClemente(949)493198070511.0NWBroderickMontessoriSchool,Inc24292DelPradoDanaPoint(949)443119330510.9NWCapistranoBeachCitiesYMCA DelObispo25591CaminoDelAvionSanJuanCapistrano(949)23459059059.7NWCapoBeachCalvary25975DomingoAvenueCapistranoBeach(949)493200650511.3NWCapoValleyHeadStart31485ElCaminoRealSanJuanCapistrano(949)661802960511.3NWChildbridgePreschool31113RanchoViejoRdSanJuanCapistrano(949)661335548510.8NWDanaMontessoriSchool34052VioletLanternStreetDanaPoint(949)240727137510.6NWDanaPointMontessori33501DelObispoStreetDanaPoint(949)443421336511.2NWEvelynLoboVillegasHeadStart32204DelObispoStreetSanJuanCapistrano(949)661524340510.7NWGloriaDeiLutheranPreschool33501StonehillDriveDanaPoint(949)493341454510.9NWKinoshitaElementarySchool2ViaPositivaSanJuanCapistrano(949)48921312459.5NWLittleMindsMontessoriAcademy34240CaminoCapistranoCapistranoBeach(949)374835275 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationE 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1PAZDistance(miles)DirectionSchoolNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneEnroll ment511.1NWMissionParishSchool26801OrtegaHighwaySanJuanCapistrano(949)234130025512.6NWMonarchBayMontessoriAcademy32920PacificCoastHighwayDanaPoint(949)42931019059.5NWOhanaPreschool26153VictoriaBoulevardCapistranoBeach(949)66162584559.1NWPalisadesElementarySchool26462ViaSacramentoDanaPoint(949)496594224511.2NWRichardHenryDanaElementarySchool24242LaCrestaDrDanaPoint(949)496578424510.9NWSanJuanMontessori32143AlipazStreetSanJuanCapistrano(949)496292745512.7NWSouthShoresChristianPreschool32712CrownValleyParkwayDanaPoint(949)496933186510.5NWStEdward'sCatholicPreschool33866CalleLaPrimaveraDanaPoint(949)240848572510.8NWSt.Margaret'sEpiscopalSchool31641LaNoviaSanJuanCapistrano(949)661011090513.6NWStoneybrookeChristianSchools26300ViaEscolarMissionViejo(949)364119160OrangeCountyTotals:2,096SanDiegoCounty11.7NWSanOnofreChildDevelopmentCenterBuilding51080MCB(760)7257311190SanDiegoCountyTotals:190TOTAL:2,286 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationE 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 3.MedicalFacilitieswithintheEPZPAZDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneCapacityCurrentCensusAmbul atoryPatientsWheel chairPatientsBedriddenPatientsOrangeCounty47.0NWAccentonSeniors273ViaBallenaSanClemente(949)36120936632145.2NWCalleSonoraPlace201CalleSonoraSanClemente(949)36120416632148.2NWCaminoHillsCareHome22940ArroyoSanClemente(949)36916096632148.1NWCaminoHillsofSanClemente2924ArroyoSanClemente(949)36983906632144.9NWCasaParaisoArlena413AvenidaArlenaSanClemente(949)49214476632147.7NWChateaubytheGolfCourse425AvenidaVaqueroSanClemente(949)21813606632149.1NWLeriza'sGuestHome4019ViaManzanaSanClemente(949)24006136632148.6NWMalashGardens3106SombreadoSanClemente(949)36904466632145.8NWMirabelbytheSeaV249CalleEmpalmeSanClemente(949)49824885522146.0NWRosehavenI203CalleDelJuegoSanClemente(949)36625996632145.9NWRosehavenIII309CalleSandiaSanClemente(949)36695506632148.2NWSaddlebackMemorialMedicalCenter654CaminoDeLosMaresSanClemente(949)4961122868643291448.1NWSanClementeVillasbytheSea660CaminoDeLosMaresSanClemente(949)4893400190168126281448.0NWSeaviewCareHome2827CalleGuadalajaraSanClemente(949)21857196632148.1NWTalegaTerrace24ViaAndaremosSanClemente(949)54238566632147.6NWTenderTouchEldercare2942CalleGrandeVistaSanClemente(949)36138376632158.4NWAegisofDanaPoint26922CaminoDeEstrellaCapistranoBeach(949)48826507676382513 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationE 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1PAZDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneCapacityCurrentCensusAmbul atoryPatientsWheel chairPatientsBedriddenPatients510.5NWAtriaSanJuan32353SanJuanCreekRoadSanJuanCapistrano(949)6611220140797540513.1NWBaysideTerrace23031JavaSeaDriveDanaPoint(949)493206666321510.7NWCasaDeAmma27231CalleArroyoSanJuanCapistrano(949)496900166321511.2NWDelObispoTerraceSeniorLiving32200DelObispoStreetSanJuanCapistrano(949)2572928958070100510.8NWEmeritusatSanJuanCapistrano31741RanchoViejoRoadSanJuanCapistrano(949)2488855101878700510.3NWFountainsAtSeaBluffs25411SeaBluffsDriveDanaPoint(949)3540033888844291558.6NWMirabelBytheSea26961CalleGranadaCapistranoBeach(949)49666896632159.3NWNiguelHillsVillaI33872CalleBorregoSanJuanCapistrano(949)443522866321510.8NWSanJuanCapistranoSouthDialysis31736RanchoViejoRd#BSanJuanCapistrano(949)24014541818963511.1NWSeaBrightPlace33216SeaBrightDrDanaPoint(949)661329166321513.1NWSeasideTerrace325917SeasDrDanaPoint(949)493833366321512.4NWSilveradoSeniorLivingSanJuanCapistrano30311CaminoCapistranoSanJuanCapistrano(949)4294558969151400511.1NWTessie'sPlaceLovingCareHome#127642RosedaleDrSanJuanCapistrano(949)547052966321512.4NWTessie'sPlaceLovingCareHome#227021MissionHillsDriveSanJuanCapistrano(949)443149666321512.6NWTessie'sPlaceLovingCareHome#326551RoyaleDriveSanJuanCapistrano(949)48109126632158.9NWTime&Patience34456CallePortolaCapistranoBeach(949)248877533021TOTAL:1,03091361121983 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationE 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 4.Parks/RecreationalAttractionswithintheEPZPAZDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameFacilityTypeStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneTransientsVehiclesOrangeCounty46.2NWBellaCollinaTowne&GolfClubGolfcourse200AvenidaLaPataSanClemente(949)4986604171343.9NWCalafiaStateParkBeach243AvenidaLobeiroSanClemente(949)36182191,24320043.5NWCityofSanClemente:MunicipalGolfCourseGolfcourse150EastAvenidaMagdalenaSanClemente(949)3618384321743.7NWSanClementeStateBeachBeach225AvenidaCalifiaSanClemente(949)49231562829843.7NWSanClementeStateBeachCampground225AvenidaCalifiaSanClemente(949)492080287832247.8NWShorecliffsGolfClubGolfcourse501AvenidaVaqueroSanClemente(949)4921177181246.9NWTalegaGolfClubGolfcourse990AvenidaTalegaSanClemente(949)36962262013510.2NWDanaPointHarborMarina24500DanaPointHarborDriveDanaPoint(949)493622239615359.6NWDohenyStateBeachBeach25300DanaPointHarborDriveDanaPoint(949)49661715,4321,10859.6NWDohenyStateBeachCampground25300DanaPointHarborDriveDanaPoint(949)4966171665244511.5NWMarbellaCountryClub 1Golfcourse30800GolfClubDriveSanJuanCapistrano(949)248370000511.1NWMissionSanJuanCapistranoPark26801OrtegaHighwaySanJuanCapistrano(949)234136015057511.0NWRanchoViejoRidingParkPark29500OrtegaHighwaySanJuanCapistrano(949)48804222,000760512.3NWSaltCreekBeachBeach33333PacificCoastHwyDanaPoint(949)92322803,000600510.4NWSanJuanHillsGolfClubGolfcourse32120SanJuanCreekRoadSanJuanCapistrano(949)49311675032511.3NWStrandsBeachBeach33971SelvaRoad#100DanaPoint(949)48725001,109300OrangeCountyTotals:15,2923,929SanDiegoCounty11.5NWSanOnofreStateBeachBeachBasiloneRoadMCB(499)94274214,5541,48611.5NWSanOnofreStateBeachCampgroundBasiloneRoadMCB(949)49264601,90335043.1NWSanMateoCampgroundCampground830CristianitosRoadSanClemente(949)3612531856314SanDiegoCountyTotals:7,3132,150TOTAL:22,6056,0791 MarbellaCountryClubisassigned0transientsbecausethevisitorsarealllocals.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationE 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 5.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZPAZDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneTransientsVehiclesOrangeCounty45.0NWAlgodonMotel135AvenidaAlgodonSanClemente(949)4923382271345.3NWAlwaysInn177AvenidaCabrilloSanClemente(949)37461655344.3NWAmericasBestValueInn2002SouthElCaminoRealSanClemente(949)3612110552745.0NWBeachcomberMotel533AvenidaVictoriaSanClemente(949)4925457211346.1NWBestWesternCasablancaInn1601NorthElCaminoRealSanClemente(949)36116441105543.1NWCarmeloMotel3619SouthElCaminoRealSanClemente(949)4920387281445.1NWCasaTropicanaInnatthePier610AvenidaVictoriaSanClemente(949)492123414743.1NWComfortSuitesSanClementeBeach3701SouthElCaminoRealSanClemente(949)361660012012045.9NWDaysInnSanClemente1301NorthElCaminoRealSanClemente(949)3610636723645.4NWFourSeasonPacifica326EncinoLaneSanClemente(949)52918769643.9NWHamptonInn&SuitesSanClemente2481SouthElCaminoRealSanClemente(800)30853061206046.1NWHolidayInnExpress35ViaPicoPlazaSanClemente(949)49888001809045.2NWHolidayInnHotelSanClemente111SouthAvenueDeLaEstrellaSanClemente(949)36130007014044.2NWHotelMiramar2222SouthElCaminoRealSanClemente(949)4924992221143.9NWLaVistaInnMotel2435SouthElCaminoRealSanClemente(949)498278217944.4NWLittleInnbytheBeach1819SouthElCaminoRealSanClemente(949)4921960311644.9NWPatriotsMotel711SouthElCaminoRealSanClemente(949)2186348261345.2NWSanClementeCoveResort104SouthAlamedaLaneSanClemente(949)49266661333343.8NWSanClementeInn2600AvenidaDelPresidenteSanClemente(949)492610335516745.1NWSeaHorseResort602AvenidaVictoriaSanClemente(949)492172020944.0NWTheINNatCalafiaBeach2341SouthElCaminoRealSanClemente(949)4921174321644.3NWTradeWindsMotel2001SouthElCaminoRealSanClemente(949)492888819943.9NWTravelodgeSanClementeBeach2441SouthElCaminoRealSanClemente(949)49859543222510.9NWBestWesternCapistranoInn27174OrtegaHighwaySanJuanCapistrano(949)49356618080 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationE 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1PAZDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneTransientsVehicles59.1NWBestWesternPLUSDanaPointInn by the Sea34744PacificCoastHwyDanaPoint(949)24001505025511.0NWBlueLanternInn34343StreetoftheBlueLanternDanaPoint(949)6611304522558.9NWCapistranoSeasideInn34862PacificCoastHwyCapistranoBeach(949)4961399482459.2NWCapistranoSurfsideInnResort34680PacificCoastHwyCapistranoBeach(949)240768117535510.9NWDanaMarinaMotel34111PacificCoastHwyDanaPoint(949)49613004020510.1NWDanaPointHarborInn25325DanaPointHarborDriveDanaPoint(949)4935001242235510.4NWDanaPointMarinaInn24800DanaPointHarborDriveDanaPoint(949)496120325025059.8NWDoubletree34402PacificCoastHwyDanaPoint(949)6611100390243510.2NWHolidayInnExpressHotel&SuitesDanaPoint3434634308PacificCoastHwyDanaPoint(949)248100031077510.3NWLagunaCliffsMarriottResort&Spa25135ParkLanternDanaPoint(888)476240543443459.1NWQualityInn&SuitesOceanview34734PacificCoastHwyCapistranoBeach(800)44622765628512.0NWTheRitzCarltonSpa1Ritz CarltonDriveDanaPoint(949)2402000706440512.1NWTheSt.RegisMonarch1MonarchBeachResortDanaPoint(949)2343200690345TOTAL:5,0413,150 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationE 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 1.SchoolswithintheEPZ SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationE 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 2.PreschoolsandDaycareswithintheEPZ SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationE 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 3.MedicalFacilitieswithintheEPZ SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationE 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 4.RecreationalAreaswithintheEPZ SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationE 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 5.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZ SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationE 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 6.LodgingFacilitiesintheSanClementeArea APPENDIXFTelephoneSurvey SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationF 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1F. TELEPHONESURVEYF.1 IntroductionThedevelopmentofevacuationtimeestimatesfortheEPZoftheSanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationrequirestheidentificationoftravelpatterns,carownershipandhouseholdsizeofthepopulationwithintheEPZ.DemographicinformationcanbeobtainedfromCensusdata.Theuseofthisdatahasseverallimitationswhenappliedtoem ergencyplanning.First,theCensusdatadonotencompasstherangeofinformationneededtoidentifythetimerequiredforpreliminaryactivities(mobilization)thatmustbeundertakenpriortoevacuatingthearea.Secondly,CensusdatadonotcontainattitudinalresponsesneededfromthepopulationoftheEPZandconsequentlymaynotaccuratel yrepresenttheanticipatedbehavioralcharacteristicsoftheevacuatingpopulace.TheseconcernsareaddressedbyconductingatelephonesurveyofarepresentativesampleoftheEPZpopulation.Thesurveyisdesignedtoelicitinformationfromthepublicconcerningfamilydemographicsandestimatesofresponsetimestowelldefinedevents.Thedesignofthesurveyincludesalimitednumberofquestionsoftheform"Whatwouldyoudoif-?"andotherquestionsregardingactivitieswithwhichtherespondentisfamiliar("Howlongdoesittakeyouto-?")

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationF 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1F.2 SurveyInstrumentandSamplingPlanAttachmentApresentsthefinalsurveyinstrumentusedinthisstudy.Adraftoftheinstrumentwassubmittedtostakeholdersforcomment.Commentswerereceivedandthesurveyinstrumentwasmodifiedaccordingly,priortoconductingthesurvey.Followingthecompletionoftheinstrument,asamplingplanwasdeveloped.Asamplesizeofapproximately500completedsurveyformsyi eldsresultswithasamplingerrorof+/-4.5%atthe95%confidencelevel.ThesamplemustbedrawnfromtheEPZpopulation.Consequently,alistofzipcodesintheEPZwasdevelopedusingGISsoftware.ThislistisshowninTableF 1.Alongwitheachzipcode,anestimateofthepopulationandnumberofhouseholdsineachareawasdeterminedbyoverlayingCensusdataandtheEPZboundary,againusingGISsoftware.Theproportionalnumberofdesiredcompletedsurveyinterviewsforeachareawasidentified,asshowninTableF 1.Thecompletedsurveyadheredtothesamplingplan.TableF 1.SanOnofreTelephoneSurveySamplingPlanZIPCODEEPZPOPINZIPFOR2010EPZPOPINZIPFOR2010EXCLUDINGMCBEPZHOUSEHOLDSINZIPFOR2010EXCLUDINGMCBREQUIREDSAMPLE92677920559,716926247,4217,4212,856289262926,02826,02811,3691129267329,93429,93410,1411009267534,68034,68011,4161139267245,57833,40313,700147Total153,357131,46649,482500AvgHHSize: 2.66Note:ZipCode92055includesbarracks(whichmaybetemporaryhousing)withinMCBanddoesnothaveanumberofhouseholdswithintheCensus.ZipCode92672includesportionsofMCBwithpermanenthousing.ZipCode92058isathirdzipcodewithinMCB,butonlycontainspopulationoutsideoftheSanOnofreEP Z.ZipCode92674withinSanClementeisacommercial onlyzipcodecontainingnopermanentresidents.AveragehouseholdsizecalculationomitspopulationresidinginMCB.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationF 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1F.3 SurveyResultsTheresultsofthesurveyfallintotwocategories.First,thehouseholddemographicsoftheareacanbeidentified.Demographicinformationincludessuchfactorsashouseholdsize,automobileownership,andautomobileavailability.Thedistributionsofthetimetoperformcertainpre evacuationactivitiesarethesecondcategoryofsurveyresults.Thesedataareprocessedtodevelopthetripgenerationdistributionsusedintheevacuationmodelingeffort,asdiscussedinSection5.Areviewofthesurveyinstrumentrevealsthatseveralquestionshavea"don'tknow"(DK)or"refused"entryforaresponse.Itisacceptedpracticeinconductingsurveysofthi stypetoaccepttheanswersofarespondentwhooffersaDKresponseforafewquestionsorwhorefusestoanswerafewquestions.ToaddresstheissueofoccasionalDK/refusedresponsesfromalargesample,thepracticeistoassumethatthedistributionoftheseresponsesisthesameasth eunderlyingdistributionofthepositiveresponses.Ineffect,theDK/refusedresponsesareignoredandthedistributionsarebaseduponthepositivedatathatisacquired.F.3.1 HouseholdDemographicResultsHouseholdSizeFigureF 1presentsthedistributionofhouseholdsizewithintheEPZ.Theaveragehouseholdcontains2.63people.Theestimatedhouseholdsize(2.66persons)usedtodeterminethesurveysample(TableF 1)wasdrawnfromCensusdata.ThecloseagreementbetweentheaveragehouseholdsizeobtainedfromthesurveyandfromtheCensusisanindicationofthereliabilit yofthesurvey.FigureF 1.HouseholdSizeintheEPZ0%10%20%30%40%

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%ofHouseholds HouseholdSize SanOnofreHouseholdSize SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationF 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1AutomobileOwnershipTheaveragenumberofautomobilesavailableperhouseholdintheEPZis2.05.Itshouldbenotedthatapproximately2.4percentofhouseholdsdonothaveaccesstoanautomobile.ThedistributionofautomobileownershipispresentedinFigureF 2.FigureF 3andFigureF 4presenttheautomobileavailabilitybyhouseholdsize.Notethatthemajorityofhouseholdswithoutaccesstoacararesinglepersonhouseholds.Asexpected,nearlyallhouseholdsof2ormorepeoplehaveaccesstoatleastonevehicle.FigureF 2.HouseholdVehicleAvailability0%10%20%30%40%

50%0123456789+

%ofHouseholds NumberofVehicles SanOnofreVehicleAvailability SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationF 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureF 3.VehicleAvailability1to5PersonHouseholdsFigureF 4.VehicleAvailability6to9+PersonHouseholds 0%20%40%60%80%100%0123456789+

%ofHouseholds VehiclesDistributionofVehiclesbyHHSize 1 5PersonHouseholds 1Person 2People 3People 4People 5People 0%20%

40%60%80%100%0123456789+

%ofHouseholds VehiclesDistributionofVehiclesbyHHSize 6 9+PersonHouseholds 6People 7People 8People 9+People SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationF 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Ridesharing93%ofthehouseholdssurveyedwhodonotownavehiclerespondedthattheywouldsharearidewithaneighbor,relative,orfriendifacarwasnotavailabletothemwhenadvisedtoevacuateintheeventofanemergency.Note,however,thatonlythosehouseholdswithnoaccesstoavehicle-14totaloutofthesamplesizeof500-answer edthisquestion.Thus,theresultsarenotstatisticallysignificant.Assuch,theNRCrecommendationof50%ridesharingisusedthroughoutthisstudy.FigureF 5presentsthisresponse.FigureF 5.HouseholdRidesharingPreference0%20%40%

60%

80%100%YesNo%ofHouseholds SanOnofreRidesharewithNeighbor/Friend SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationF 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1CommutersFigureF 6presentsthedistributionofthenumberofcommutersineachhousehold.Commutersaredefinedashouseholdmemberswhotraveltoworkorcollegeonadailybasis.Thedatashowsanaverageof0.96commutersineachhouseholdintheEPZ,and57%ofhouseholdshaveatleastonecommuter.FigureF 6.CommutersinHouseholdsintheEPZ0%10%20%30%

40%50%01234+%ofHouseholds NumberofCommuters SanOnofreCommuters SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationF 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1CommuterTravelModesFigureF 7presentsthemodeoftravelthatcommutersuseonadailybasis.Thevastmajorityofcommutersusetheirprivateautomobilestotraveltowork.Thedatashowsanaverageof1.10employeespervehicle,assuming2peoplepervehicle-onaverage-forcarpools.FigureF 7.ModesofTravelintheEPZF.3.2 EvacuationResponseSeveralquestionswereaskedtogaugethepopulation'sresponsetoanemergency.Thesearenowdiscussed:"Howmanyofthevehicleswouldyourhouseholduseduringanevacuation?"TheresponseisshowninFigureF 8.Onaverage,evacuatinghouseholdswoulduse1.42vehicles."Wouldyourfamilyawaitthereturnofotherfamilymemberspriortoevacuatingthearea?"Ofthesurveyparticipantswhoresponded,36percentsaidtheywouldawaitthereturnofotherfamilymembersbeforeevacuatingand64percentindicatedthattheywouldnotawaitthereturnofotherfamilymembers."Ifyouhadahouseholdpet,wouldyoutakeyourpetwithyouifyouwereaskedtoevacuatethearea?"Basedontheresponsestothesurvey,76percentofhouseholdshaveafamilypet.Ofthehouseholdswithpets,93percentofthemindicatedthattheywouldtaketheirpetswiththem,asshowninFigur eF 9.1.5%1.5%2.8%84.9%9.2%0%20%40%60%80%100%RailBusWalk/BikeDriveAloneCarpool(2+)%ofCommuters ModeofTravel SanOnofreTravelModetoWork SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationF 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureF 8.NumberofVehiclesUsedforEvacuationFigureF 9.HouseholdsEvacuatingwithPets0%20%40%60%80%100%0123456789+

%ofHouseholds NumberofVehiclesVehiclesUsedforEvacuation 0%20%40%

60%80%100%YesNo%ofHouseholds HouseholdsEvacuatingwithPets SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationF 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1"Emergencyofficialsadviseyoutotakeshelterathomeinanemergency.Wouldyou?"Thisquestionisdesignedtoelicitinformationregardingcompliancewithinstructionstoshelterinplace.Theresultsindicatethat84percentofhouseholdswhoareadvisedtoshelterinplacewoulddoso;theremaining16percentwouldchoosetoevacuateth earea.NotethebaselineETEstudyassumes20percentofhouseholdswillnotcomplywiththeshelteradvisory,asperSection2.5.2ofNUREG/CR 7002.Thus,thedataobtainedaboveissignificantlylessthanthefederalguidancerecommendation.AsindicatedinAppendixM(TableM 2),asensitivitystudywasconductedtoestimatetheimpactofshadowevacuation(non complianceofshelteradvisory)onETE.TheresultsindicatethatETEarenotimpactedbyachangeinshadowevacuationfrom20%to16%."Emergencyofficialsadviseyoutotakeshelterathomenowinanemergencyandpossiblyevacuatelaterwhilepeopleinotherareasareadvisedtoevacuatenow.Wouldyou?"Thisquestionisdesignedtoelicitinformationspecificallyrelatedtothepossibilityofastagedevacuation.Thatis,askingapopulationtoshelterinplacenowandthentoevacuateafteraspecifiedperiodofti me.Resultsindicatethat75percentofhouseholdswouldfollowinstructionsanddelaythestartofevacuationuntilsoadvised,whilethebalanceof25percentwouldchoosetobeginevacuatingimmediately.F.3.3 TimeDistributionResultsThesurveyaskedseveralquestionsabouttheamountoftimeittakestoperformcertainpre evacuationactivities.Theseact ivitiesinvolveactionstakenbyresidentsduringthecourseoftheirday to daylives.Thus,theanswersfallwithintherealmoftheresponder'sexperience.ThemobilizationdistributionsprovidedbelowaretheresultofhavingappliedtheanalysisdescribedinSection5.4.1onthecomponentactivitiesofthemobilization.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationF 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1"Howlongdoesittakethecommutertocompletepreparationforleavingwork?"FigureF 10presentsthecumulativedistribution;inallcases,theactivityiscompletedwithin90minutes.91percentcanleavewithin30minutes.FigureF10.TimeRequiredtoPreparetoLeaveWork/School"Howlongwouldittakethecommutertotravelhome?"FigureF 11presentstheworktohometraveltimefortheEPZ.About80percentofcommuterscanarrivehomewithin30minutesofleavingwork;allwithin120minutes.FigureF11.WorktoHomeTravelTime0%20%40%60%80%100%0153045607590

%ofCommuters PreparationTime(min)TimetoPreparetoLeaveWork 0%20%40%

60%

80%100%0153045607590105120

%ofCommuters TravelTime(min)WorktoHomeTravel SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationF 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1"Howlongwouldittakethefamilytopackclothing,securethehouse,andloadthecar?"FigureF 12presentsthetimerequiredtoprepareforleavingonanevacuationtrip.Inmanywaysthisactivitymimicsafamily'spreparationforashortholidayorweekendawayfromhome.Hence,theresponsesrepresenttheexperienceoftheresponderinperformingsimilaractivities.ThedistributionshowninFigureF 12hasalong"tail."About70percentofhouseholdscanbereadytoleavehomewithin45minutes;theremaininghouseholdsrequireuptoanadditional150minutes.FigureF12.TimetoPrepareHomeforEvacuationF.4 ConclusionsThetelephonesurveyprovidesvaluable,relevantdataassociatedwiththeEPZpopulation,whichhavebeenusedtoquantifydemographicsspecifictotheEPZ,and"mobilizationtime"whichcaninfluenceevacuationtimeestimates.0%20%40%60%80%100%0153045607590105120135150165180195

%ofHouseholds PreparationTime(min)TimetoPreparetoLeaveHome SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationF 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ATTACHMENTATelephoneSurveyInstrument SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationF 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TelephoneSurveyInstrumentHello,mynameis___________andI'mworkingincooperationwithlocalemergencymanagementagenciestoidentifylocalbehaviorduringemergencysituations.Thisinformationwillbeusedforemergencyplanningandwillbesharedwithlocalofficialstoenhanceemergencyresponseplansinyourareaforallhazards;emergencyplanningforsomehazardsmayrequireevacuation.Yourresponseswillgreatlycontributetolocalemergencypreparedness.Iwillnotaskforyournameandthesurveyshalltakenomorethan10minutestocomplete.COL.1Unused COL.2Unused COL.3Unused COL.4Unused COL.5Unused SexCOL.81Male2FemaleINTERVIEWER:ASKTOSPEAKTOTHEHEADOFHOUSEHOLDORTHESPOUSEOFTHEHEADOFHOUSEHOLD.(Terminatecallifnotaresidence.)

DONOTASK:1A.Recordareacode.ToBeDeterminedCOL.9 111B.Recordexchangenumber.ToBeDeterminedCOL.12 142.Whatisyourhomezipcode?COL.15 193A.Intotal,howmanyrunningcars,orotherrunningvehiclesareusuallyavailabletothehousehold?(DONOTREADANSWERS)COL.20 1ONE2TWO3THREE4FOUR5FIVE6SIX7SEVEN8EIGHT9NINEORMORE0ZERO(NONE)XDON'TKNOW/REFUSEDSKIPTOQ.4Q.4Q.4Q.4Q.4Q.4Q.4Q.4Q.4Q.3BQ.3B3B.Inanemergency,couldyougetarideoutoftheareawithaneighbororfriend?COL.211YES2NOXDON'TKNOW/REFUSED4.Howmanypeopleusuallyliveinthishousehold?(DONOTREADANSWERS)COL.22 1ONE2TWO3THREE4FOUR5FIVE6SIXCOL.230TEN1ELEVEN2TWELVE3THIRTEEN4FOURTEEN5FIFTEEN SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationF 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.17SEVEN 8EIGHT9NINE6SIXTEEN7SEVENTEEN8EIGHTEEN9NINETEENORMOREXDON'TKNOW/REFUSED5.Howmanyadultsinthehouseholdcommutetoajob,ortocollegeonadailybasis?COL.24 0ZERO1ONE2TWO3THREE4FOURORMORE5DON'TKNOW/REFUSEDSKIPTOQ.9Q.6Q.6Q.6Q.6Q.9INTERVIEWER:ForeachpersonidentifiedinQuestion5,askQuestions6,7,and8.6.Thinkingaboutcommuter#1,howdoesthatpersonusuallytraveltoworkorcollege?(REPEATQUESTIONFOREACHCOMMUTER)Commuter#1 COL.25Commuter#2 COL.26Commuter#3COL.27Commuter#4 COL.28Rail1 1 1 1Bus2 2 2 2Walk/Bicycle3 3 3 3DriveAlone4 4 4 4Carpool 2ormorepeople5 5 5 5Don'tknow/Refused6 6 6 6 7.Howmuchtimeonaverage,wouldittakeCommuter#1totravelhomefromworkorcollege?(REPEATQUESTIONFOREACHCOMMUTER)(DONOTREADANSWERS)COMMUTER#1COMMUTER#2COL.29COL.30COL.31 COL.3215MINUTESORLESS146 50MINUTES15MINUTESORLESS 146 50MINUTES 26 10MINUTES251 55MINUTES26 10MINUTES 251 55MINUTES 311 15MINUTES356-1HOUR 3 11 15MINUTES 356-1HOUR 416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationF 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAND2HOURS731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAND2HOURS836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)941 45MINUTES99 41 45MINUTES 900XDON'TKNOW/REFUSEDXDON'TKNOW/REFUSEDCOMMUTER#3COMMUTER#4COL.33COL.34COL.35 COL.3615MINUTESORLESS146 50MINUTES15MINUTESORLESS 146 50MINUTES 26 10MINUTES251 55MINUTES26 10MINUTES 251 55MINUTES 311 15MINUTES356-1HOUR 3 11 15MINUTES 356-1HOUR 416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAN D2HOURS731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAND2HOURS836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)941 45MINUTES99 41 45MINUTES 900XDON'TKNOW/REFUSEDXDON'TKNOW/REFUSED8.ApproximatelyhowmuchtimedoesittakeCommuter#1tocompletepreparationforleavingworkorcollegepriortostartingthetriphome?(REPEATQUESTIONFOREACHCOMMUTER)(DONOTREADANSWERS)COMMUTER#1COMMUTER#2COL.37COL.38COL.39 COL.4015MINUTESORLESS146 50MINUTES15MINUTESORLESS 146 50MINUTES 26 10MINUTES251 55MINUTES26 10MINUTES 251 55MINUTES 311 15MINUTES356-1HOUR 3 11 15MINUTES 356-1HOUR 416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationF 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAND2HOURS731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAN D2HOURS836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)941 45MINUTES99 41 45MINUTES 900XDON'TKNOW/REFUSED XDON'TKNOW/REFUSEDCOMMUTER#3COMMUTER#4COL.41COL.42COL.43 COL.4415MINUTESORLESS146 50MINUTES15MINUTESORLESS 146 50MINUTES 26 10MINUTES251 55MINUTES26 10MINUTES 251 55MINUTES 311 15MINUTES356-1HOUR 3 11 15MINUTES 356-1HOUR 416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAN D2HOURS731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAND2HOURS836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)941 45MINUTES99 41 45MINUTES 900XDON'TKNOW/REFUSED XDON'TKNOW/REFUSED9.Ifyouwereadvisedbylocalauthoritiestoevacuate,howmuchtimewouldittakethehouseholdtopackclothing,medications,securethehouse,loadthecar,andcompletepreparationspriortoevacuatingthearea?(DONOTREADANSWERS)COL.45COL.46 1LESSTHAN15MINUTES13HOURSTO3HOURS15MINUTES215 30MINUTES23HOURS16MINUTESTO3HOURS30MINUTES 331 45MINUTES33HOURS31MINUTESTO3HOURS45MINUTES 446MINUTES-1HOUR43HOURS46MINUTESTO4HOURS51HOURTO1HOUR15MINUTES54HOURSTO4HOURS15MINUTES61HOUR16MINUTESTO1HOUR30MINUTES64HOURS16MINUTESTO4HOURS30MINUTES SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationF 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.171HOUR31MINUTESTO1HOUR45MINUTES74HOURS31MINUTESTO4HOURS45MINUTES 81HOUR46MINUTESTO2HOURS84HOURS46MINUTESTO5HOURS92HOURSTO2HOURS15MINUTES95HOURSTO5HOURS30MINUTES02HOURS16MINUTESTO2HOURS30MINUTES05HOURS31MINUTESTO6HOURSX2HOURS31MINUTESTO2HOURS45MINUTES XOVER6HOURS(SPECIFY_______)Y2HOURS46MINUTESTO3HOURSCOL.471 DON'TKNOW/REFUSED10.Pleasechooseoneofthefollowing(READANSWERS):Ifyouwereathomeandwereaskedtoevacuate,A.Iwouldawaitthereturnofhouseholdcommuterstoevacuatetogether.B.Iwouldevacuateindependentlyandmeetotherhouseholdmemberslater.COL.50 1A2BXDON'TKNOW/REFUSED 11.Howmanyvehicleswouldyourhouseholduseduringanevacuation?(DONOTREADANSWERS)COL.511ONE2 TWO3 THREE4FOUR5 FIVE6 SIX7SEVEN8 EIGHT9 NINEORMORE0 ZERO(NONE)X DON'TKNOW/REFUSED12A.Emergencyofficialsadviseyoutotakeshelterathomeinanemergency.Wouldyou:(READANSWERS)A.SHELTER;orB.EVACUATECOL.52 1A 2B XDON'TKNOW/REFUSED12B.Emergencyofficialsadviseyoutotakeshelterathomenowinanemergencyandpossiblyevacuatelaterwhilepeopleinotherareasareadvisedtoevacuatenow.Wouldyou:(READANSWERS)A.SHELTER;orB.EVACUATECOL.53 1A 2B XDON'TKNOW/REFUSED13.Ifyouhaveahouseholdpet,wouldyoutakeyourpetwithyouifyouwereaskedtoevacuatethearea?(READANSWERS)

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationF 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1COL.541 DON'THAVEAPE T2 YES3 NOX DON'TKNOW/REFUSED Thankyouverymuch._______________________________(TELEPHONENUMBERCALLED)IFREQUESTED:Foradditionalinformation,contactyourCountyEmergencyManagementAgencyduringnormalbusinesshours.CountyEMAPhone SanDiegoCounty(858)5653490OrangeCounty(714)6477042 APPENDIXGTrafficManagementPlan SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationG 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1G. TRAFFICMANAGEMENTPLANNUREG/CR 7002indicatesthattheexistingTCPsandACPsidentifiedbytheoffsiteagenciesshouldbeusedintheevacuationsimulationmodeling.ThetrafficandaccesscontrolplansfortheEPZwereprovidedbythemunicipalitiesandMCB;recommendationsweremadeinareaswheretheuseofmodifiedTCPswouldbenefitETE.ThemodifiedTCPsgivenbelowassumethenumbersth atareassignedtotheseTCPlocationsintheCityofSanClementeTrafficControlPointsplanningdocument.ThemodifiedTCPswerediscussedwiththeoffsiteagenciesatthefinalmeetingandwillbeincorporatedinfutureemergencyplanupdates.G.1 TrafficControlPointsAsdiscussedinSection9,trafficcontrolpointsatintersections(whicharecontrolled)aremodeledasactuatedsignals.Ifanintersectionhasapre timedsignal,stop,oryieldcontrol,andtheintersectionisidentifiedasatrafficcontrolpoint,thecontroltypewaschangedtoanactuatedsignalintheDYNEVIIsystem.TableK 2providesthecontroltypeandnodenumberforthosenodeswhicharecontrolled.IftheexistingcontrolwaschangedduetothepointbeingaTrafficControlPoint,thecontroltypeisindicatedasaTCPinTableK 2.AsdiscussedinSection7.3,theanimationofevacuationtrafficconditionsindicatestheportionsofSanClem entesituatedeastofI 5arethelastareastoclear.ThisispartiallyduetothefactthatmovementsarerestrictedsuchthatalltrafficisroutedontoI 5northboundattheinterchang esofI 5withAvenidaPresidio,AvenidaPalizadaandAvenidaPico(TCPs5AandB,6,and7respectively).ItisrecommendedthattheCityofSanClementeallowmovementwestboundacrossI 5sothatevacueesmayseekalternativepathstowardsSR 1whichpresentsanuncongestedexitpathduringthelaterstagesofevacuation.Tofa cilitatemovementontoSR 1,modificationtotheTCPlocatedattheintersectionofAvenidaPicowithElCaminoReal(TCP10)isalsorecommended.TherecommendedchangesatthisintersectionaredesignedtoallowmovementsontoSR 1northboundwhichprovidesanalternativerouteoutoftheEPZtoI 5.Itisrecommendedth atMCBconsiderestablishingaTCPattheintersectionofSanMateoDrandBasiloneRd,prohibitingvehiclesfromusingBasiloneRdnorthboundtowardtheSanOnofrefamilyhousingareaandI 5.FigureG 1mapstheTCPsintheSONGSEPZ.Schematicsareprovidedforthe5recommendedTCPmodificationsandcanbeseeninFigureG 2throughFigureG 6.ThesuggestednewTCPlocatedinMCBcanbeseeninFigureG 7.SincetherecommendationsprimarilyconsistofremovingrestrictionsimposedbythecurrentTCPsinSanClemente,theresourcesrequiredtoenforcethetrafficcontrolstrategyarereducedasaresultoftheproposedmodifications.ThemodifiedTCPsrequireatotalof18lessbarricades,54lesstrafficconesasthecurrentTCPs,althoughadditionaldeputiesmayberequired.TheadditionalTCPlocatedinMCBwillrequireatotalof16barricades.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationG 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureG 1.TrafficControlPointsfortheSONGSSite SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationG 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureG 2.RecommendedTCP5AModification SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationG 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureG 3.RecommendedTCP5BModification SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationG 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureG 4.RecommendedTCP6Modification SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationG 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureG 5.RecommendedTCP7Modification SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationG 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureG 6.RecommendedTCP10Modification SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationG 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureG 7.RecommendedTCPattheIntersectionofBasiloneRdandSanMateoDr APPENDIXHEvacuationRegions SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationH 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1H. EVACUATIONREGIONSThisappendixpresentstheevacuationpercentagesforeachEvacuationRegion(TableH 1)andmapsofallEvacuationRegions.ThepercentagespresentedinTableH 1arebasedonthemethodologydiscussedinassumption5ofSection2.2andshowninFigure2 1.NotethebaselineETEstudyassumes20percentofhousehol dswillnotcomplywiththeshelteradvisory,asperSection2.5.2ofNUREG/CR 7002.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationH 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableH 1.PercentofSubAreaPopulationEvacuatingforEachRegionRegionDescriptionPAZNRCSONGS12345R012 MileRegion2 MileRegion100%20%20%20%20%R025 MileRegion5 MileRegion100%100%100%100%20%R03FullEPZFullEPZ100%100%100%100%100%Evacuate2 MileRegionandDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionTowardsPAZNRCSONGS12345R04NW,NNW,NP,Q,R,A,B100%20%20%100%20%R05NNE100%20%100%100%20%R06NE,ENE,E,ESEC,D,E,F,G100%20%100%20%20%R07SE100%100%100%20%20%R08SSE,S,SSW,SW,WSW,WH,J,K,L,M,N100%100%20%20%20%R09WNW100%100%20%100%20%Evacuate5 MileRegionandDownwindtoEPZBoundaryRegionWindDirectionTowardsPAZNRCSONGS12345N/AWNW,NW,NNW,NRefertoR03N/ANNE,NE,ENE,E,ESE,SE,SSE,S,SSW,SW,WSW,WRefertoR02Evacuate2 MileRegionandDownwindtoEPZBoundaryRegionWindDirectionTowardsPAZNRCSONGS12345R10NW,NNW,NP,Q,R,A,B100%20%20%100%100%N/ANNERefertoR05N/ANE,ENE,E,ESEC,D,E,F,GRefertoR06N/ASE,SSERefertoR07N/AS,SSW,SW,WSW,WH,J,K,L,M,NRefertoR08R11WNW100%100%20%100%100%

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationH 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1StagedEvacuation2MileRegionEvacuates,thenEvacuateDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionTowardsPAZNRCSONGS12345R12NW,NNW,NP,Q,R,A,B100%20%20%100%20%R13NNE100%20%100%100%20%R14NE,ENE,E,ESEC,D,E,F,G100%20%100%20%20%R15SE100%100%100%20%20%R16SSE,S,SSW,SW,WSW,WH,J,K,L,M,N100%100%20%20%20%R17WNW100%100%20%100%20%R185 MileRegion100%100%100%100%20%SONGSSpecificEvacuationRegionsRegionDescriptionPAZ12345R19EvacuatePAZ5Only20%20%20%20%100%R20Evacuate1,ShelterthenEvacuate2,3,4,5100%100%100%100%100%R21Evacuate1,2,3,4,ShelterthenEvacuate5100%100%100%100%100%PAZ(s)Shelter in Placeuntil90%ETEforUn stagedRegion,thenEvacuatePAZ(s)Shelter in PlacePAZ(s)Evacuate SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationH 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 1.RegionR01 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationH 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 2.RegionR02 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationH 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 3.RegionR03 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationH 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 4.RegionR04 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationH 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 5.RegionR05 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationH 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 6.RegionR06 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationH 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 7.RegionR07 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationH 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 8.RegionR08 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationH 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 9.RegionR09 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationH 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH10.RegionR10 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationH 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 11RegionR11 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationH 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 12RegionR12 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationH 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 13RegionR13 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationH 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 14RegionR14 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationH 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 15RegionR15 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationH 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 16RegionR16 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationH 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 17RegionR17 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationH 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 18RegionR18 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationH 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 19RegionR19 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationH 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 20RegionR20 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationH 24KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 21RegionR21 APPENDIXJRepresentativeInputstoandOutputsfromtheDYNEVIISystem SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationJ 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1J. REPRESENTATIVEINPUTSTOANDOUTPUTSFROMTHEDYNEVIISYSTEMThisappendixpresentsdatainputtoandoutputfromtheDYNEVIISystem.TableJ 1providesthevolumeandqueuesforthetenhighestvolumesignalizedintersectionsinthestudyarea.RefertoTableK 2andthefiguresinAppendixKforamapshowingthegeographiclocationofeachintersection.TableJ 2providessource(vehicleloading)anddestinationinformationforseveralroadwaysegments(links)intheanalysisnetwork.RefertoTableK 1andthefiguresinAppendixKforamapshowingthegeographiclocationofeachlink.TableJ 3providesnetwork-widestatistics(averagetraveltime,averagespeedandnumberofvehicles)foranevacuationoftheentireEPZ(RegionR03)foreachscenario.Scenario11,whichisthespecialevent,exhibitsasignificantlyloweraveragespeedandlongeraveragetraveltimethanScenario3.Scenario12,theroadwayclosure,alsoexhibitsaloweraveragespeedandalongeraveragetraveltimethanScenario1.TableJ 4providesstatistics(averagespeedandtraveltime)forthemajorevacuationroutes-I 5NB,I 5SB,andSR 1NB-foranevacuationoftheentir eEPZ(RegionR03)underScenario1conditions.AsdiscussedinSection7.3andshowninFigures7 3through7 9,I 5southboundisnevercongested,assuchitsspeedsarebarelyimpactedbytheevacuation.I 5northboundandSR 1aretwomajorevacuationroutesoutoftheEPZandexperiencelowertrav elspeedsandhighertraveltimesduringthefirst5hoursoftheevacuation.TableJ 5providesthenumberofvehiclesdischargedandthecumulativepercentoftotalvehiclesdischargedforeachlinkexitingtheanalysisnetwork,foranevacuationoftheentireEPZ(RegionR03)underScenario1conditions.RefertoTableK 1andthefiguresinAppendixKforamapshowingthegeographiclocationofeachlink.FigureJ 1throughFigureJ 13plotthetripgenerationtimeversustheETEforeachofthe13Scenariosconsidered.ThedistancebetweenthetripgenerationandETEcurvesisthetraveltime.PlotsoftripgenerationversusETEarein dicativeoftheleveloftrafficcongestionduringevacuation.Forlowpopulationdensitysites,thecurvesareclosetogether,indicatingshorttraveltimesandminimaltrafficcongestion.Forhigherpopulationdensitysites,thecurvesarefartherapartindicatinglongertraveltimesandthepresenceoftrafficcongestion.AsseeninFigureJ 1throughFigureJ 13,thecurvesarespatiallyseparatedasaresultofthepronouncedtrafficcongestionintheEPZ,whichwasdiscussedindetailinSection7.3.Thetraveltimeduringpeakconges tionforScenario1isabout2hoursand45minutes.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationJ 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableJ 1.CharacteristicsoftheTenHighestVolumeSignalizedIntersectionsNodeLocationIntersection ControlApproach (UpNode)TotalVolume(Veh)Max.TurnQueue(Veh)300GoldenLantern&CrownValleyPkwyActuatedSignal153710,2939414694,023623022,5660TOTAL16,882996AlisoCreekRd&AliciaPkwyActuatedSignal154113,587014882,5580TOTAL16,1451465MoultonPkwy&RanchoNiguelRdActuatedSignal146610,8782494542,2983414772,159126TOTAL15,3351010MoultonPkwy&OsoPkwyActuatedSignal15088,3686214802,5596110424,0250TOTAL14,9521006MoultonPkwy&AlisoCreekRdActuatedSignal44913,1694410081,5494148300TOTAL14,718995AliciaPkwy&KiteHillDrActuatedSignal44313,5930154200TOTAL13,593443AliciaPkwy&HighlandsAveActuatedSignal44113,5880154300TOTAL13,588441AliciaPkwy&KiteHillDrActuatedSignal43913,48301544680TOTAL13,551437AliciaPkwy&NiguelRdActuatedSignal4328,97815615534,24713515452547TOTAL13,4791021AlisoCreekRd&PacificParkDrActuatedSignal15255,894010227,3670TOTAL13,261 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationJ 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableJ 2.SampleSimulationModelInputLinkNumberVehiclesEnteringNetworkonthisLinkDirectionalPreferenceDestination NodesDestinationCapacity17859SE80023,81080039,00080143,81059791NW80579,00080871,25084975,715960274NW80579,00080871,25084975,7151258138N80871,25080375,71584975,7151515254NW80579,00080871,25084965,715164034N80323,8101741942NW80579,00080871,25084975,715194891NW80871,25084965,71580415,7152094592NW80579,00080871,25084965,7151603276NW80579,00080871,250 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationJ 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableJ 3.SelectedModelOutputsfortheEvacuationoftheEntireEPZ(RegionR03)Scenario1234567Network WideAverageTravelTime(Min/VehMi)4.55.14.24.94.34.65.2Network WideAverageSpeed(mph)13.311.714.212.414.013.111.5TotalVehiclesExitingNetwork139,076138,932120,753120,822109,872138,192137,586Scenario8910111213Network WideAverageTravelTime(Min/VehMi)4.14.74.25.05.513.3Network WideAverageSpeed(mph)14.712.814.412.110.94.5TotalVehiclesExitingNetwork117,059117,098107,863191,861138,485130,246 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationJ 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableJ 4.AverageSpeed(mph)andTravelTime(min)forMajorEvacuationRoutes(RegionR03,Scenario1)ElapsedTime(hours)123456RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)Travel Time (min)Speed Travel TimeSpeed Travel TimeSpeedTravel TimeSpeed Travel TimeSpeed Travel TimeI 5SB15.468.613.567.513.770.013.270.013.270.013.270.013.2I 5NB17.418.157.615.567.522.945.733.131.569.415.070.014.9SR 1NB6.58.744.318.920.535.910.835.510.935.111.038.99.9 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationJ 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableJ 5.SimulationModelOutputsatNetworkExitLinksforRegionR03,Scenario1NetworkExitLinkElapsedTime(hours)123456CumulativeVehiclesDischargedbytheIndicatedTimeCumulativePercentofVehiclesDischargedbytheIndicatedTime00000000%0%0%0%0%0%161335068881,0721,1861,2340%1%1%1%1%1%212156651,1151,2941,3751,4261%1%1%1%1%1%276,7959,68510,66211,04611,30811,39222%14%11%9%9%8%1748,57519,34228,26235,14940,23543,96328%28%29%30%31%32%2854631,5672,1202,2932,3052,3062%2%2%2%2%2%3864661666767670%0%0%0%0%0%4534741,0951,3831,4161,4331,4342%2%1%1%1%1%12753881,1871,8562,0582,1152,1311%2%2%2%2%2%12762,3066,5029,58910,40410,64410,7408%9%10%9%8%8%13142,2295,5478,1739,0409,3909,5427%8%8%8%7%7%13192222220%0%0%0%0%0%13242821,4262,0282,2162,2302,2311%2%2%2%2%2%13606,27914,11522,74830,22335,18738,08821%21%23%26%27%28%14063129031,3961,8252,2602,6711%1%1%2%2%2%14085211,4152,1342,7243,2863,9042%2%2%2%3%3%1413315212121210%0%0%0%0%0%

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationJ 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NetworkExitLinkElapsedTime(hours)123456CumulativeVehiclesDischargedbytheIndicatedTimeCumulativePercentofVehiclesDischargedbytheIndicatedTime1426424343535350%0%0%0%0%0%1636241411932002022020%0%0%0%0%0%1794623504795005065060%1%0%0%0%0%18719122,9673,8154,3044,4694,4993%4%4%4%3%3%18734261,2021,5131,6211,6611,6661%2%2%1%1%1%2101845616364640%0%0%0%0%0%

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationJ 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ 1.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario1)FigureJ 2.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario2)0%20%40%60%

80%100%0306090120150180210240270300330360390420450480510540570600 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Midweek,Midday,Good (Scenario1)TripGenerationETE 0%20%40%

60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300330360390420450480510540570600 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Midweek,Midday,Rain (Scenario2)TripGenerationETE SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationJ 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ 3.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario3)FigureJ 4.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario4)0%20%40%

60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300330360390420450480510540570600 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Weekend,Midday,Good (Scenario3)TripGenerationETE 0%20%40%

60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300330360390420450480510540570600 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Weekend,Midday,Rain (Scenario4)TripGenerationETE SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationJ 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ 5.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather(Scenario5)FigureJ 6.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario6)0%20%40%60%

80%100%0306090120150180210240270300330360390420450480510540570600 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,Good (Scenario5)TripGenerationETE 0%20%40%60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300330360390420450480510540570600 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Midweek,Midday,Good (Scenario6)TripGenerationETE SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationJ 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ 7.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario7)FigureJ 8.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario8)0%20%40%

60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300330360390420450480510540570600 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Midweek,Midday,Rain (Scenario7)TripGenerationETE 0%20%40%60%

80%100%0306090120150180210240270300330360390420450480510540570600 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Weekend,Midday,Good (Scenario8)TripGenerationETE SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationJ 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ 9.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario9)FigureJ10.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather(Scenario10)0%20%40%

60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300330360390420450480510540570600 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Weekend,Midday,Rain (Scenario9)TripGenerationETE 0%20%40%60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300330360390420450480510540570600 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,Good (Scenario10)TripGenerationETE SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationJ 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ11.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather,SpecialEvent(Scenario11)FigureJ12.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather,RoadwayImpact(Scenario12)0%20%40%

60%

80%100%0306090120150180210240270300330360390420450480510540570600 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Weekend,Midday,Good,SpecialEvent (Scenario11)TripGenerationETE 0%20%

40%60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300330360390420450480510540570600 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Midweek,Midday,Good,RoadwayImpact (Scenario12)TripGenerationETE SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationJ 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ13.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather,Earthquake(Scenario13)0%20%40%60%

80%100%012024036048060072084096010801200 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Midweek,Midday,Good,Earthquake (Scenario13)TripGenerationETE APPENDIXKEvacuationRoadwayNetwork SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1K. EVACUATIONROADWAYNETWORKAsdiscussedinSection1.3,alink nodeanalysisnetworkwasconstructedtomodeltheroadwaynetworkwithinthestudyarea.FigureK 1providesanoverviewofthelink nodeanalysisnetwork.Thefigurehasbeendividedupinto36moredetailedfigures(FigureK 2throughFigureK 37)whichshoweachofthelinksandnodesinthenetwork.TheanalysisnetworkwascalibratedusingtheobservationsmadeduringthefieldsurveyconductedinJanuary2012.TableK 1liststhecharacteristicsofeachroadwaysectionmodeledintheETEanalysis.Eachlinkisidentifiedbyit sroadnameandtheupstreamanddownstreamnodenumbers.Thegeographiclocationofeachlinkcanbeobservedbyreferencingthemap(FigureK 2throughFigureK 37)correspondingtothegridnumberprovidedinTableK 1.TheroadwayidentifiedinTableK 1isgenerallybasedonthefollowingcriteria: Freeway:limitedaccesshighway,2ormorelanesineachdirection,highfreeflowspeeds Freewayramp:rampontooroffofalimitedaccesshighway Majorarterial:3ormorelanesineachdirection Minorarterial:2ormorelanesinea chdirection Collector:singlelaneineachdirection Localroadways:singlelaneineachdirection,localroadswithlowfreeflowspeedsTheterm,"No.ofLanes"inTableK 1identifiesthenumberoflanesthatextendthroughoutthelengthofthelink.Manylinkshaveadditionallanesontheimmediateapproachtoanintersection(turnpockets);thesehav ebeenrecordedandenteredintotheinputstreamfortheDYNEVIISystem.AsdiscussedinSection1.3,lanewidthandshoulderwidthwerenotphysicallymeasuredduringtheroadsurvey.Rather,estimatesofthesemeasureswerebasedonvisualobservationsandrecordedimages.TableK 2identifieseac hnodeinthenetworkthatiscontrolledandthetypeofcontrol(stopsign,yieldsign,pre timedsignal,actuatedsignal,trafficcontrolpoint)atthatnode.UncontrollednodesarenotincludedinTableK 2.Thegeographiclocationofeachnodecanbeobservedbyreferencingthemap(FigureK 2throughFigureK 37)correspondingtothegridnumberprovidedinTableK 2.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 1.OverviewofLinkNodeAnalysis SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 2.Grid1 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 3.Grid2 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 4.Grid3 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 5.Grid4 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 6.Grid5 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 7.Grid6 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 8.Grid7 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 9.Grid8 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK10.Grid9 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK11.Grid10 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK12.Grid11 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK13.Grid12 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK14.Grid13 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK15.Grid14 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK16.Grid15 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK17.Grid16 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK18.Grid17 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK19.Grid18 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK20.Grid19 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK21.Grid20 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK22.Grid21 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 24KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK23.Grid22 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 25KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK24.Grid23 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 26KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK25.Grid24 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 27KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK26.Grid25 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 28KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK27.Grid26 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 29KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK28.Grid27 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 30KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK29.Grid28 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 31KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK30.Grid29 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 32KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK31.Grid30 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 33KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK32.Grid31 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 34KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK33.Grid32 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 35KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK34.Grid33 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 36KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK35.Grid34 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 37KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK36.Grid35 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 38KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK37.Grid36 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 39KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableK 1.EvacuationRoadwayNetworkCharacteristicsLink#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder 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SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 53KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation 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SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 54KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber353215216SR74COLLECTOR849112217005514354216217SR74COLLECTOR1069112217005514355217218SR74COLLECTOR802112217005514356218219SR74COLLECTOR899112217005514357219220SR74COLLECTOR687112217005514358220221SR74COLLECTOR699112217005514359221222SR74COLLECTOR717112217005514360222223SR74COLLECTOR942112217005514361223224SR74COLLECTOR634112217005514362224225SR74COLLECTOR915112217005514363225226SR74COLLECTOR671112217005514364226227SR74COLLECTOR678112217005514365227228SR74COLLECTOR885112217005514366228229SR74COLLECTOR996112217005514367229230SR74COLLECTOR907112217005514368230231SR74COLLECTOR728112217005514369231232SR74COLLECTOR711112217005514370232233SR74COLLECTOR957112217005514371233234SR74COLLECTOR1315112217005514372234235SR74COLLECTOR2028112217005514373235236SR74COLLECTOR1010112217005514374236237SR74COLLECTOR2305112217505514375237238SR74COLLECTOR109111221700555376238239SR74COLLECTOR143511221700555377239240SR74COLLECTOR130111221700555 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 55KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber378240241SR74COLLECTOR74811221700555379241242SR74COLLECTOR95511221700555380242243SR74COLLECTOR104011221700555381243244SR74COLLECTOR132811221700555382244245SR74COLLECTOR123811221700555383245246SR74COLLECTOR124511221700555384246247SR74COLLECTOR73511221700555385247248SR74COLLECTOR66411221700555386248249SR74COLLECTOR81111221700555387250131SR1MAJORARTERIAL238212419005516388250251SR1MAJORARTERIAL1159212419005516389251250SR1MAJORARTERIAL1157212419005516390251252SR1MAJORARTERIAL689212419005516391252251SR1MAJORARTERIAL689212419005516392252253SR1MAJORARTERIAL323212419005516393252560SR1DOHENYRDRAMPSFREEWAYRAMP1004112419004516394253252SR1MAJORARTERIAL323212419005516395253550SR1MAJORARTERIAL719212419005516396254255SR1MAJORARTERIAL1314312419005516397254550SR1MAJORARTERIAL397212419005516398255254SR1MAJORARTERIAL1314212419005516399255256SR1MAJORARTERIAL9093124190045164002551707SR1COASTHWYCONNECTORCOLLECTOR1104112017004016401256255SR1MAJORARTERIAL909312419005516 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 56KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber4022561308DANAPOINTHARBORDRMAJORARTERIAL6212124190040164032561324DELOBISPOSTMINORARTERIAL10952120190040164042561636SR1MAJORARTERIAL6443120190045164052571636SR1MAJORARTERIAL2823120190045164062571637SR1MAJORARTERIAL290212019004516407258259SR1MAJORARTERIAL2502124190040164082581318STOFCOPPERLANTERNLOCALROADWAY8841120135030164092581637SR1MAJORARTERIAL857212019004516410259260SR1MAJORARTERIAL1045312419004016411260261SR1MAJORARTERIAL7043124190040164122601689GOLDENLANTERNMINORARTERIAL243212419003516413261262SR1MAJORARTERIAL621312419004016414261265VIOLETLANTERNSTLOCALROADWAY460112019003016415262264STOFTHEAMBERLANTERNCOLLECTOR3541120190030164162621641SR1MAJORARTERIAL740312419004016417263267SR1MAJORARTERIAL5162124190040154182631322STREETOFTHEBLUELANTERNCOLLECTOR14171120135030164192631640SR1MAJORARTERIAL834212419003516420264262STOFTHEAMBERLANTERNCOLLECTOR354112019003016421264265SR1MAJORARTERIAL621312419003516422265261VIOLETLANTERNSTLOCALROADWAY4601120190030164232651711SR1MAJORARTERIAL537312419003516424266260GOLDENLANTERNMINORARTERIAL673212419003516 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 57KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation 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SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 58KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation 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SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 59KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation 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SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 60KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber4993241623DELOBISPOSTMINORARTERIAL522212019004011500328331DELOBISPOSTMINORARTERIAL4932120190040125013281352CAMINOCAPISTRANOMINORARTERIAL11452120190035125023291354SR74MAJORARTERIAL2602120190035125033291396CAMINOCAPISTRANOMINORARTERIAL11081120190035125043301412SR74MAJORARTERIAL1972120190040125053301723SR74MAJORARTERIAL214312019003512506331332DELOBISPOSTMINORARTERIAL554212019004012507332330DELOBISPOSTMINORARTERIAL931212019004012508335338CAMINODELAVIONMINORARTERIAL27582120190050115093381589CAMINODELAVIONMINORARTERIAL9762120190045105103381592NIGUELRDMINORARTERIAL638312419004510511341285CAMINODELAVIONMINORARTERIAL978212019004510512344346GOLDENLANTERNMAJORARTERIAL2707312419005011513346348GOLDENLANTERNMAJORARTERIAL15383124190050115143481613GOLDENLANTERNMAJORARTERIAL1671312419005011515350352GOLDENLANTERNMINORARTERIAL3000212419005011516352355GOLDENLANTERNMINORARTERIAL10212124190050115173551615GOLDENLANTERNMINORARTERIAL1075212419004511518357418GOLDENLANTERNMAJORARTERIAL973312419005011519360361GOLDENLANTERNMAJORARTERIAL93931241900507520361456PASEODELACOLINASMINORARTERIAL712212419004575213611537GOLDENLANTERNMAJORARTERIAL60131241900507522366368NIGUELRDMINORARTERIAL1596212419004510523368370NIGUELRDMINORARTERIAL1304212419004510 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 61KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation 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SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 62KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation 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SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 63KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation 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SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 66KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation 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SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 67KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber673510511MARGUERITEPKWYMINORARTERIAL146221201900458674511512MARGUERITEPKWYMINORARTERIAL703212019004586755111419MEDICALCENTERDRCOLLECTOR25021201900358676512513MARGUERITEPKWYMINORARTERIAL83321201900458677513514MARGUERITEPKWYMINORARTERIAL75421201900458678514479MARGUERITEPKWYMINORARTERIAL83331201900453679515516MARGUERITEPKWYMINORARTERIAL69821201900453680516517MARGUERITEPKWYMINORARTERIAL927212019004536815171038MARGUERITEPKWYMINORARTERIAL126521201900453682519520SANJOAQUINHILLSTRANSPORTATIONCORRIDORFREEWAY111331282250757683520521SANJOAQUINHILLSTRANSPORTATIONCORRIDORFREEWAY126731282250757684520527SANJOAQUIN HILLSTRANSPORTATIONCORRIDORFREEWAYRAMP1534312102250757685521520SANJOAQUINHILLSTRANSPORTATIONCORRIDORFREEWAY1268312102250757686521522SANJOAQUINHILLSTRANSPORTATIONCORRIDORFREEWAY1065312102250757687522521SANJOAQUINHILLSTRANSPORTATIONCORRIDORFREEWAY1065312102250757 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 68KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation 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SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 70KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation 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SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 71KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation 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SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 72KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation 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SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 73KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber7975891706CAMINODEESTRELLAMINORARTERIAL1190212019004517798590127CAMINODEESTRELLAMINORARTERIAL4842120190035177995901235CAMINODEESTRELLAMINORARTERIAL388212019003517800591253SR1DOHENYRDRAMPSFREEWAYRAMP718112417004516801591550SR1DOHENYRDRAMPSFREEWAYRAMP7091124135030168025911282DOHENYPARKRDMINORARTERIAL365212419004516803592588CAMINOCAPISTRANOCOLLECTOR1245112015753517804593592CAMINOCAPISTRANOCOLLECTOR1501112015753517805594593CAMINOCAPISTRANOCOLLECTOR1692112019003519806595594CAMINOCAPISTRANOCOLLECTOR604112015753519807596595CAMINOCAPISTRANOCOLLECTOR661112015753519808597596CAMINOCAPISTRANOCOLLECTOR431212019003519809598544CAMINOCAPISTRANOMINORARTERIAL616112019003519810598597CAMINOCAPISTRANOCOLLECTOR719212019003519811598599AVENIDAVAQUAROCOLLECTOR321112019004019812599598AVENIDAVAQUAROCOLLECTOR321112019004019813599600AVENIDAVAQUAROCOLLECTOR490112017004019814600599AVENIDAVAQUAROCOLLECTOR491112019004019815600601AVENIDAVAQUAROCOLLECTOR664112017004019816601600AVENIDAVAQUAROCOLLECTOR663112017004019817601602AVENIDAVAQUAROCOLLECTOR762112017004019818602601AVENIDAVAQUAROCOLLECTOR763112017004019819602603AVENIDAVAQUAROCOLLECTOR679112017004019820603602AVENIDAVAQUAROCOLLECTOR678112017004019821603604AVENIDAVAQUAROCOLLECTOR613112017004017 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 74KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation 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SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 75KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber847620621CALLEFRONTERACOLLECTOR548212019004020848621622CALLEFRONTERACOLLECTOR694212019004020849622623CALLEFRONTERACOLLECTOR732112017004020850623624CALLEFRONTERACOLLECTOR581112017004020851624625CALLEFRONTERACOLLECTOR979112017004019852625626CALLEFRONTERACOLLECTOR1129112019004019853626123AVENIDAVISTAHERMOSAMAJORARTERIAL504212019005019854626627CALLEFRONTERALOCALROADWAY762112015753519855627628CALLEFRONTERALOCALROADWAY676112015753519856628629CALLEFRONTERALOCALROADWAY720112015753519857629630CALLEFRONTERALOCALROADWAY743112015753519858630631CALLEFRONTERALOCALROADWAY515112015753517859631632CALLEFRONTERALOCALROADWAY205112015753517860632633CALLEJUAREZLOCALROADWAY200112013503017861633634CALLEJUAREZLOCALROADWAY708112013503017862634635CALLEJUAREZCOLLECTOR289112013503017863635636CALLEJUAREZLOCALROADWAY323112013503017864636605CALLEGUADALAJARALOCALROADWAY484112013503017865637638AVENIDAPICOMAJORARTERIAL781312419005021866638639AVENIDAPICOMAJORARTERIAL837312419005021867639640AVENIDAPICOMAJORARTERIAL2076312419005018868640641AVENIDAPICOMAJORARTERIAL1475312419005018869641642AVENIDAPICOMAJORARTERIAL2069312419005018870642643AVENIDAPICOMAJORARTERIAL7703124190050188716431212AVENIDAPICOMAJORARTERIAL1061312419005018 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 76KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation 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SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 77KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation 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SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 78KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation 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SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 80KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation 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SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 81KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation 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SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 82KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation 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SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 83KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation 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SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 84KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation 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SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 85KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation 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SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 86KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation 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SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 87KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation 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SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 89KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation 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SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 90KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation 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SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK 91KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation 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FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber210216971160BEACHCLUBROADCOLLECTOR2471120675152521031698615AVENIDAVISTAHERMOSACOLLECTOR83211201900351921041699614RECLAMATIONPOINTLOCALROADWAY46711201900301921051700653CAMINOVERACRUZMINORARTERIAL27711201900401821061700703CAMINOVERACRUZMINORARTERIAL51821201900401821071701655PLAZADRIVEWAYSLOCALROADWAY30411201900301821081702691CALLECAREYESCOLLECTOR98511201900301821091703646CALLEAMANECERCOLLECTOR712112019003518211017041703CALLENEGOCIOCOLLECTOR1529112019003518211117051703CALLENEGOCIOLOCALROADWAY25711201900302021121706588CAMINODEESTRELLAMINORARTERIAL25411201700451721131706589CAMINODEESTRELLAMINORARTERIAL1189212019004517211417071709SR1COASTHWYCONNECTORCOLLECTOR177112017004016211517081707DRIVEWAYLOCALROADWAY15411201350301621161709549SR1COASTHWYCONNECTORCOLLECTOR581112017004016211717101709PARKLANTERNLOCALROADWAY36111201350301621181711266SR1MAJORARTERIAL37421241900351621191712317DELOBISPOSTMINORARTERIAL43011201900401121201712319DELOBISPOSTMINORARTERIAL208121201900401121211713119SELCAMINOREALMAJORARTERIAL21811201900402021221713528SELCAMINOREALMAJORARTERIAL41921201900402021231714120AVENIDAPRESIDIOCOLLECTOR28211201900352021241715121AVENIDAPICOMAJORARTERIAL293112419005020212517161252AVENIDAVISTAHERMOSAMAJORARTERIAL287112017005019 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK129KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber21261717541COASTHWYMAJORARTERIAL20311241900551921271717542COASTHWYMAJORARTERIAL23221241900351921281718540SELCAMINOREALMAJORARTERIAL48921241900351921291718541SELCAMINOREALMAJORARTERIAL19611241900351921301719543COASTHWYMAJORARTERIAL44211241900501921311719544COASTHWYMAJORARTERIAL39711241900501921321720393STONEHILLDRMINORARTERIAL235621201900451621331720563STONEHILLDRCOLLECTOR497112019004516213417211287SANJUANCREEKRDCOLLECTOR341112419004512213517221340ALIPAZSTCOLLECTOR331112419004012213617231357SR74MAJORARTERIAL15021201900351221371724138SR74MAJORARTERIAL37211201900451221381724139SR74MAJORARTERIAL541112019004512213917251286SANJUANCREEKRDCOLLECTOR395112419004512214017261286LANOVIAAVECOLLECTOR44511201900401221411727144DRIVEWAYLOCALROADWAY247112019003011214217281361CAMINOCAPISTRANOFREEWAY474011210170045721431729140JUNIPERASERRARDMINORARTERIAL13111201900351221441730177DRIVEWAYLOCALROADWAY25911201900301221451731541DRIVEWAYLOCALROADWAY13211201900301921461732532DRIVEWAYLOCALROADWAY11011201900302021471733812DRIVEWAYLOCALROADWAY751120190030242148173486I5FREEWAY1037512422507022149173517I5FREEWAY351412422507036215080031735I5FREEWAY340412422507036 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK130KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber215180571057SANJOAQUINHILLSTRANSPORTATIONCORRIDORFREEWAY309312102250701EXITLINK28002N.COASTHWYMINORARTERIAL308212019004036EXITLINK148014SANLUISREYMISSIONEXPYMAJORARTERIAL819212419005536EXITLINK14958495MOULTONPKWYMAJORARTERIAL23631241900502EXITLINK14968496PACIFICPARKDRMAJORARTERIAL23531241900501EXITLINK15008497ALISOCREEKRDMAJORARTERIAL15531241900551EXITLINK15038503CABOTRDMINORARTERIAL29621241900502EXITLINK2808280SR1MAJORARTERIAL662212419004510EXITLINK2498818SR74COLLECTOR60111221700555EXITLINK10958095VANDERGRIFTBLVDMINORARTERIAL1386212419005032EXITLINK10978097FALLBROOKRDCOLLECTOR1240112417004032EXITLINK11158115DELUZRDCOLLECTOR997112015753523EXITLINK11168116DELUZRDCOLLECTOR900112015753528EXITLINK10328032FOOTHILLTRANSPORTATIONCORIDORFREEWAY87421282250704 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK131KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumberEXITLINK10378037ANTONIOPKWYMAJORARTERIAL66731281900553EXITLINK10408040MARGUERITEPKWYMINORARTERIAL53321201900453EXITLINK10418041LAPAZRDMINORARTERIAL25221241900452EXITLINK10578057SANJOAQUINHILLSTRANSPORTATIONCORRIDORFREEWAY30941282250701EXITLINK13018301COTODECAZACOLLECTOR49421201900404EXITLINK14938493ALICIAPKWYMAJORARTERIAL15131241900501EXITLINK16968696RIVERTREEDRLOCALROADWAY385112013503035EXITLINK17348087I5FREEWAY94551242250702EXITLINK17358003I5FREEWAY339412422507036 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK132KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableK 2.NodesintheLink NodeAnalysisNetworkwhichareControlledNodeXCoordinate (ft)1YCoordinate (ft)1ControlTypeGridMapNumber1062147712018873Actuated 361162149082019310Actuated 361262152132020301Actuated 368962139402022839Actuated 369362134182021785Actuated 3610161552712087217 Stop 2410361515732089996 TCPUncontrolled 2410461520132090242 TCPActuated 2410961521552090391 TCPActuated 2411061513822089893 Stop 2411161495462096540 TCPUncontrolled 2411461494342095155 TCPActuated 2411761491842095010 Stop 2411961484282098392 TCPActuated 2012061466122101964 TCPActuated 2012161432532106196 TCPActuated 2012361406222108667 TCPActuated 1912661331252113858 TCPActuated 1712761329262113689 TCPUncontrolled 1713061293142116827Actuated 1713161284882116173Actuated 1613661309292124166 TCPActuated 1213861326242129428 TCPActuated 1213961334762129759 TCPActuated 1214061304292135944 TCPActuated 1214161306582136001 TCPActuated 1214361298972135802Actuated 1214461289842135754 TCPActuated 1114661283662145653Actuated 714761287562145615Actuated 714861278872145625Actuated 715161287642150329Actuated 7 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK133KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NodeXCoordinate (ft)1YCoordinate (ft)1ControlTypeGridMapNumber15261285102150145Actuated 715561280062149941Actuated 715761293832157605Actuated 316361278622157739Actuated 216461442052135411Actuated 1316661422282135197Actuated 1217761344892130693 TCPActuated 1218761421712142905Actuated 818861415112144736Actuated 819061414152147063Actuated 819161411302148634Actuated 819361411042150172Actuated 819561416692152038Actuated 319661416082152840Actuated 319961403302155440Actuated 323761668522150973Actuated 525561241602115558Actuated 1625661233002115851 TCPActuated 1625761224172116125Actuated 1625861213182116452Actuated 1626061200732116661 TCPActuated 1626161193792116545Actuated 1626261187712116423Actuated 1626361172152116085Actuated 1626461187672116069Actuated 1626561193882116085Actuated 1626661202992116066 TCPActuated 1626761167042116160Actuated 1526961154922118007Actuated 1527061144472119888Actuated 1527261113132123959 TCPActuated 1527361090172126110Actuated 1027561073752128168Actuated 1027661068362128658Actuated 1027761061892129594Actuated 1027861054782130655Actuated 1028161117172124141 Stop 1028361128852124450Actuated 10 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK134KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NodeXCoordinate (ft)1YCoordinate (ft)1ControlTypeGridMapNumber28561134782126813 TCPActuated 1029161138502133213Actuated 1029461163092138239Actuated 629661181352139790Actuated 729861202422141727Actuated 730061223532144208Actuated 730461243432147970Actuated 730661244422149988Actuated 730861263482149259Actuated 731061203972125370 TCPActuated 1131361211022125000Actuated 1131761248982123870 TCPActuated 1631961262082125986Actuated 1132361273272127230Actuated 1132461278732127965Actuated 1132861310342127732 TCPActuated 1232961310562129087 TCPActuated 1233061317842129120 TCPActuated 1233161315262127755Actuated 1233561187352125235Actuated 1133861162102124899 TCPActuated 1034161144372126731Actuated 1034461208492126190Actuated 1134661218282128628Actuated 1134861224322129947Actuated 1135061245452131491Actuated 1135261252192134324Actuated 1135561247172135163Actuated 1135761241402136607Actuated 1136161241712142344Actuated 736661168422125858Actuated 1036861163282127330Actuated 1037261171392130101Actuated 1137361172662131746Actuated 1137561179282134481Actuated 1137661182382135506Actuated 1137761174502136741Actuated 1138161202062124746Actuated 11 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK135KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NodeXCoordinate (ft)1YCoordinate (ft)1ControlTypeGridMapNumber38361202502119986Actuated 1638461201522118718Actuated 1638561200932117349Actuated 1639061241262121936Actuated 1639361241002119637Actuated 1640061151792122437Actuated 1540261153722121124Actuated 1540461221092119921Actuated 1640561225222120005Actuated 1640761166842120697 Stop 1540961178262118740 Stop 1641161216952118732 Stop 1641461222122137096Actuated 1141661195642135757Actuated 1141861242402137574Actuated 1143161124152136117 Stop 1043261147502138110Actuated 643461152932137206Actuated 1043561136672137885Actuated 643761150862139351Actuated 644161155492141663Actuated 644361153312143961Actuated 645061191482142924Actuated 745461189042145741 Stop 745761246182143544Actuated 746061263042146219Actuated 746261274172145829Actuated 746561277212146406Actuated 746661277162145655Actuated 746761262922146978 Stop 747161271232152548Actuated 247261302722131297Actuated 1247361293152133905Actuated 1247561291832150890Actuated 347661297952151298Actuated 347761308572151716Actuated 347861314652151723Actuated 347961327342151491Actuated 3 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK136KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NodeXCoordinate (ft)1YCoordinate (ft)1ControlTypeGridMapNumber48161356842151395Actuated 348261371002152102Actuated 348661407722152441Actuated 348761328262130649Actuated 1248861322802131700Actuated 1249461299492137250 Stop 1249561296482138032 Stop 849861280932139617Actuated 750061276982141238 Stop 750261281072143865Actuated 750561285192145115Actuated 750661288802146390Actuated 750761287972147194Actuated 750861289372148090Actuated 750961291512148538Actuated 851061295912149024Actuated 851161309332149482Actuated 851261316292149561Actuated 851461326102150667Actuated 352861478782098713 TCPActuated 2053061470252100039Actuated 2053261462622101466 TCPActuated 2053361450622102698Actuated 2053461442872102853Actuated 2053661433902103102Actuated 2053961413882103717Actuated 1954161402602103866 TCPActuated 1954261398242103863Actuated 1954361367222106543Actuated 1954461360912107097 TCPActuated 1954861292152112354 TCPActuated 1754961258962114885Actuated 1655361504312093738Actuated 2455561497512095345 Stop 2455661495102095999 TCPActuated 2455761496242097041Actuated 2456061260042115718Actuated 1656161264012116269Actuated 16 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK137KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NodeXCoordinate (ft)1YCoordinate (ft)1ControlTypeGridMapNumber56361268562118897 TCPActuated 1657161307072125219 TCPUncontrolled 1257261309642125556 TCPActuated 1257361309912126033Actuated 1257561277542115170 Stop 1658061290432113779 Stop 1658161290512113383 Stop 1664561472322110508Actuated 1864661470502109912Actuated 2064861457172108009Actuated 2064961416752110016Actuated 1765161432682110970Actuated 1865361445862112237Actuated 1865561476182114372Actuated 1865761485352115055 TCPActuated 1866061499452115374Actuated 1866161507022115241Actuated 1866361521382114071Actuated 1866461477912107543Actuated 2066961517792111199Actuated 1867161524042110309 Stop 1868061551242115749 Stop 1868861509802116151Actuated 1869061507632118173Actuated 1869161510832118679Actuated 1869261530312119587Actuated 1869461552122120393 Stop 1869561491142118017Actuated 1870061475332116848Actuated 1870161469542110865Actuated 1870261461822111691Actuated 1870361443292112989Actuated 1870461441592113851Actuated 1870661429002114484 Stop 1870861414922115837Actuated 1771061397962117096Actuated 1771161389462116603Actuated 17 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK138KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NodeXCoordinate (ft)1YCoordinate (ft)1ControlTypeGridMapNumber71261377242115648Actuated 1771561411442118691 Stop 1772761458952106286 Stop 2073361479312105081 Stop 2074061467712102312 Stop 2074861498722100050 Stop 2075361507792097334 Stop 2475461501612097568 Stop 2475561463242101695 TCPActuated 2076161443372100496 Stop 2076361450882101354Actuated 2076461458522101934Actuated 2076961460782098911 Stop 2077161471552099723 Stop 2077461471932097905 Stop 2077561471552097048 Stop 2477861483822095510 Stop 2479561713502090510 Stop 2581261491892095833 TCPActuated 2481361486162098339Actuated 2081561461322101575 TCPActuated 2082661363902146204 Yield 882861365892148258 Yield 883061367642149677Actuated 883161369582150280 Stop 883761390622148292 Yield 883861395212149459 Yield 883961393932150372 Stop 884161401142151887 Stop 385261381142143387 Stop 885761386062140543 Stop 887161380482144826 Yield 887261381192144702 Yield 887361379952144643 Yield 887461366722145621 Yield 888061386692147180 Yield 888761387192145579 Yield 891062260672059936 Stop 31 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK139KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NodeXCoordinate (ft)1YCoordinate (ft)1ControlTypeGridMapNumber91162278952056950Actuated 3191861928192055346 Stop 3092162264992054457Actuated 3192262222742051927Actuated 3193062134322030225Actuated 3693362134872024033Actuated 3693962237452052676Actuated 3194062272872055577Actuated 3195062038042039070 Stop 3395962089512036600Actuated 3496062076812038458Actuated 3396362124422027953Actuated 3696862145172025847 Stop 3696962155152026323 Stop 3697062160382026550 Stop 3697361522742121339 Stop 1898061551462121502 Stop 1899561148462145903Actuated 699661144982148843Actuated 6100261193132156247Actuated 2100561168942148821Actuated 6100661199342149313Actuated 7100761193042152189Actuated 2100961197052153205Actuated 2101061199202154995Actuated 2101161185572155913Actuated 2101361175532151690Actuated 2101461176552153862Actuated 2101561152132151386Actuated 1101661154152153022Actuated 1101761156812154551Actuated 1102161129332154437Actuated 1102261128522153006Actuated 1102361278202154754Actuated 2102561323512159023Actuated 3102861367092160657Actuated 3102961411992158633Actuated 3103061471312159723Actuated 4 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK140KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NodeXCoordinate (ft)1YCoordinate (ft)1ControlTypeGridMapNumber103161478452160110Actuated 4103361433162159780Actuated 4103861327642155050Actuated 3104261229642155593Actuated 2104461255052157619Actuated 2104561358052160280Actuated 3104761374292160554Actuated 3104861133292157495Actuated 1104961129382156596Actuated 1105161200162153941Actuated 2106662144202021877 Stop 36106962133572022074 Stop 3658861312332111333 Stop 1758961321302112464Actuated 1759061326802113272Actuated 1759361335372109839Actuated 1959861364222107617Actuated 1959961367172107743Actuated 1960561370432111756 Stop 1760661373602112440 Stop 1760761365692112945Actuated 1760961357162112661Actuated 1761061351092112847Actuated 1761161344742113272Actuated 1761261341492113673Actuated 1761361334422113914Actuated 1761461405532104575Actuated 1961561412992104975Actuated 1961661422652105242Actuated 1961761428802105910 TCPActuated 2061961449302107260Actuated 2062361428662107260 Stop 20111962369512054294Actuated 32112262371812055842Actuated 32112462373782057303Actuated 32118961455262103197 TCPActuated 20119661426002105529Actuated 20120161446142107002Actuated 20 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK141KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NodeXCoordinate (ft)1YCoordinate (ft)1ControlTypeGridMapNumber121261487652111759Actuated 18122161465312111491Actuated 18122561299642117008 TCPActuated 17123061290742115576 Stop 16123161286512115159 Stop 16123361276452114136 Stop 16123561324622112950Actuated 17125061401232107882 TCPActuated 19125261404492108468 TCPUncontrolled 19127161296922116361 Stop 17127561369732107715 Stop 19128661356572128818 TCPActuated 12128761317802125477 TCPActuated 12129061352972126139 Stop 12129161363762126951Actuated 12129261376212129998 Stop 12129361391452130988 Stop 12130061541522156272 Stop 462661410442108944Actuated 1963261380432110618 Yield 1763661374962111672 Stop 1763761572312112143 Stop 2163961556762112343Actuated 2164061538002113234Actuated 1864161523252113260Actuated 1864261503812112621Actuated 1864361497062112249 TCPActuated 1864461480452111316Actuated 18108362144342029656 Stop 36108862317182060029Actuated 31108962331392062077Actuated 31109162376212061959Actuated 32109262381452061181Actuated 32109362377532058957Actuated 32170361477612109930Actuated 18170761251852115147Actuated 16170961253452115072 Stop 16 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK142KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NodeXCoordinate (ft)1YCoordinate (ft)1ControlTypeGridMapNumber113762032462039310Actuated 33114161977232050544 Stop 30114661576212084801Actuated 25114961641272080327Actuated 25116061605832082342 Stop 25116261504112092689Actuated 24116461500952093603 Stop 24116761477462098480 Stop 20117561467352102152 Stop 20118161454842101012 Stop 20118561451302102904Actuated 20131761187822117350 Yield 16131861213352117336 Stop 16132161190362120030Actuated 16132261178172117367 Stop 16132361175962118740 Stop 16132461239252116751Actuated 16132761235342119887Actuated 16133261240582120925Actuated 16133461279262123763 Stop 16133661262832123833Actuated 16133861280932125128Actuated 11134061297682127652 TCPActuated 12134361284032121696Actuated 16134761310632127275Actuated 12134961301902127645Actuated 12135261310752128876Actuated 12135461313142129115Actuated 12135761321112129279 TCPActuated 12136561304542150257Actuated 8143661465512159486Actuated 4143861421352158797Actuated 3144561338272159612Actuated 3144861331162159475Actuated 3145861271492149578Actuated 7146461241132148712Actuated 7146561207112147020Actuated 7146661210642145483Actuated 7 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK143KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NodeXCoordinate (ft)1YCoordinate (ft)1ControlTypeGridMapNumber146961214212143128Actuated 7147061207932142328Actuated 7147461233062148562Actuated 7147861243492149508Actuated 7148061183632154255Actuated 2148461188852151030Actuated 2148561165232151624Actuated 1148661165062154061Actuated 1148861161022148854Actuated 6149061184452148844Actuated 7149261161342155421Actuated 1130361526412157843Actuated 4130461532222155074 Stop 4130761213952114938Actuated 16130861228892115385Actuated 16138061295222145181Actuated 8139161294692135729Actuated 12139661307412130149Actuated 12139761352002129575 Stop 12141461340162128802Actuated 12142961336922151313Actuated 3143261514592160332Actuated 4149761140522158412Actuated 1149861178552155081Actuated 2150861199902154148Actuated 2151061129562155504Actuated 1151261123222152029Actuated 1151361121602150333Actuated 6151461127562149548Actuated 6151561135622148998Actuated 6152061120742150977Actuated 1152561137622154775Actuated 1152761152872152315Actuated 1153061176452153002Actuated 2153461148152150264Actuated 6153761237802142800Actuated 7154761149552136859Actuated 10155161159582132514 Stop 10 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationK144KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NodeXCoordinate (ft)1YCoordinate (ft)1ControlTypeGridMapNumber155361155552138968Actuated 6155561172902139278Actuated 7155961194822140959Actuated 7157061234202137585Actuated 11157361243562139232Actuated 7158961154332125490Actuated 10159661158792123916Actuated 15159861150072120271Actuated 15160161198602125489Actuated 11160661202652123109 Stop 16160861202742122767 Stop 16161061202992121024Actuated 16161661290942127784Actuated 12163161182912119236 Stop 16164561119012123330Actuated 15164961112252124552 Stop 10166361268672117392Actuated 16167661588032086993Actuated 25168662143422029752 Yield 361 CoordinatesareintheNorthAmericanDatumof1983CaliforniaVIPlaneZone APPENDIXLPAZBoundaries SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationL 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1L. PAZBOUNDARIESPAZ1:Acircle,twomilesinradius,aroundtheSanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation.ItextendsbeyondtwomilesinsomeareastoencompasstheSanOnofreStateBeach,SanOnofreBluffsCampgroundandMCB.PAZ2:A120degree"wedge"ofthePacificOceanoffshorefromtheplant.Thisareahasnopermanentpopulation.PAZ3:Anarearoughlysouthandsoutheastoftheplant.ThisareaiscompletelycontrolledbyMCB.PAZ4:A"wedge"tothenorthoftheplant.ThiszoneincludestheentirecityofSanClemente,aportionofMCBandtheunincorporatedareaofOrangeCountysouthofOrtegaHighway.PAZ5:IncludesthecitiesofDanaPointandSanJuanCapistrano.

APPENDIXMEvacuationSensitivityStudies SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationM 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1M. EVACUATIONSENSITIVITYSTUDIESThisappendixpresentstheresultsofaseriesofsensitivityanalyses.TheseanalysesaredesignedtoidentifythesensitivityoftheETEtochangesinsomebaseevacuationconditions.M.1 EffectofChangesinTripGenerationTimesAsensitivitystudywasperformedtodeterminewhetherchangesintheestimatedtripgenerationtimehaveaneffectontheETEfortheentireEPZ.Specifically,ifthetailofthemobilizationdistributionweretruncated(i.e.,ifthosewhorespondedmostslowlytotheAdvisorytoEvacuate,couldbepersuadedtorespondmuchmorerapidly),howwouldtheETEbeaffected?ThecaseconsideredwasScenario1,Region3;asummer,midweek,midday,goodweatherevacuationoftheentireEPZ.TableM 1presentstheresultsofthisstudy.TableM 1.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTripGenerationSensitivityStudyTripGenerationPeriodEvacuationTimeEstimateforEntireEPZ90 thPercentile100 thPercentile3Hours4:457:004Hours4:507:005Hours(Base)4:507:00AsdiscussedinSection7.3,trafficcongestionpersistswithintheEPZforabout61/2hours.Assuch,theETEforthe100 thpercentilearenotaffectedbythetripgenerationtime,butbythetimeneededtoclearthecongestionwithintheEPZ.The90 thpercentileETEarealsonotsensitivetotruncatingthetailofthemobilizationtimedistribution.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationM 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1M.2 EffectofChangesintheNumberofPeopleintheShadowRegionWhoRelocateAsensitivitystudywasconductedtodeterminetheeffectonETEofchangesinthepercentageofpeoplewhodecidetorelocatefromtheShadowRegion.ThecaseconsideredwasScenario1,Region3;asummer,midweek,midday,go odweatherevacuationfortheentireEPZ.ThemovementofpeopleintheShadowRegionhasthepotentialtoimpedevehiclesevacuatingfromanEvacuationRegionwithintheEPZ.RefertoSections3.2and7.1foradditionalinformationonpopulationwithintheShadowRegion.TableM 2presentstheevacuationtimeestimatesforeachofthecasesconsidered.TheresultsshowthattheETEisnotimpactedbyreducingtheshadowto0%.Triplingtheshadowevacuationfrom20%to60%resultsinnochangetothe90 thpercentileETEandincreasesthe100 thpercentileETEby10minutes,notasignificantchange.AsdiscussedinSection7.3,ETEisdictatedbycongestionwithinSanClementeandisnotsignificantlyimpactedbyshadowevacuees.Decreasingtheshadowpercentageto16percent,reflectingthetelephonesurveyresultspresentedinAppendixF,doesnothaveanimpactonETE.TableM 2.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforShadowSensitivityStudyPercentShadowEvacuationEvacuatingShadowVehiclesEvacuationTimeEstimateforEntireEPZ90 thPercentile100 thPercentile004:507:001611,7424:507:0020(Base)14,6774:507:006044,0314:507:10

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationM 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1M.3 EffectofChangesinEPZResidentPopulationAsensitivitystudywasconductedtodeterminetheeffectonETEofchangesintheresidentpopulationwithinthestudyarea(EPZplusShadowRegion).Aspopulationinthestudyareachangesovertime,thetimerequiredtoevacuatethepublicmayincrease,decrease,orremainthesame.Sinc etheETEisrelatedtothedemandtocapacityratiopresentwithinthestudyarea,changesinpopulationwillcausethedemandsideoftheequationtochange.Thesensitivitystudywasconductedusingthefollowingplanningassumptions:1. Thepercentincreaseinpopulationwithinthestudyareawa svariedbetween5%and8%.Increasesinpopulationwereappliedtopermanentresidentsonly(asperfederalguidance)inboththeEPZareaandintheShadowRegion.2. Thetransportationinfrastructureremainedfixed;thepresenceofnewroadsorhighwaycapacityimprovementswasnotconsidered.3. Thestudywa sperformedforthe2 MileRegion(R01),the5 MileRegion(R02)andtheentireEPZ(R03).4. ThegoodweatherscenariowhichyieldedthehighestETEvalueswasselectedasthecasetobeconsideredinthissensitivitystudy(Scenario1).TableM 3presentstheresultsofthesensitivitystudy.SectionIVofAppendixEto10CFRPart50,andNUREG/CR 7002,Section5.4,requirelicenseestoprovideanupdatedETEanalysistotheNRCwh enapopulationincreasewithintheEPZcausesETEvalues(forthe2 MileRegion,5 MileRegionorentireEPZ)toincreas eby25percentor30minutes,whicheverisless.NotethatallofthebaseETEvaluesaregreaterthan2hourswiththeexceptionofthe2 mileregionatthe90 thpercentile.Twenty fivepercentofETEvaluesgreaterthan2:00isalwaysgreaterthan30minutes.Therefore,30minutesisthelesserandisthecriterionforupdating.Twenty fivepercentofthe90 thpercentileETEforthe2 mileregion(1:35)is23minutes,whichislessthan30minutes.ThosepercentpopulationincreaseswhichresultinETEchangesgreaterthan30minutes,or23minutesforthe2 mileregionatthe90 thpercentile,arehighlightedinredbelow-an8%increaseintheEPZpopulation.SCEwillhavetoestimatetheEPZpopulationonanannualbasis.IftheEPZpopulationincreasesby8%ormoreanupdatedETEanalysiswillbeneeded.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationM 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableM 3.ETEVariationwithPopulationChangeResident Population Base Population Change 7,668 9,968 12,269 ETE for 90 th Percentile Region Population Change Base 5% 6.5% 8%

2-Mile 1:35 1:40 1:40 1:40 5-MILE 5:10 5:25 5:25 5:30 FULL EPZ 4:50 5:05 5:05 5:10 ETE for 100 th Percentile Region Base Population Change 5% 6.5% 8%

2-Mile 5:00 5:00 5:00 5:00 5-MILE 6:50 7:05 7:15 7:20 FULL EPZ 7:00 7:20 7:25 7:30 APPENDIXNETECriteriaChecklist SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationN 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1N. ETECRITERIACHECKLISTTableN 1.ETEReviewCriteriaChecklistNRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisComments1.0Introductiona. Theemergencyplanningzone(EPZ)andsurroundingareashouldbedescribed.YesSection1b. Amapshouldbeincludedthatidentifiesprimaryfeaturesofthesite,includingmajorroadways,significanttopographicalfeatures,boundariesofcounties,andpopulationcenterswithintheEPZ.YesFigures1 1,3 1c. AcomparisonofthecurrentandpreviousETEshouldbeprovidedandincludessimilarinformationasidentifiedinTable1 1,"ETEComparison,"ofNUREG/CR 7002.YesTable1 31.1Approacha. Adiscussionoftheapproachandlevelofdetailobtainedduringthefieldsurveyoftheroadwaynetworkshouldbeprovided.YesSection1.3b. Sourcesofdemographicdataforschools,specialfacilities,largeemployers,andspecialeventsshouldbeidentified.YesSections2.1,3,8c. Discussionshouldbepresentedonuseoftrafficcontrolplansintheanalysis.YesSection1.3,Section2.3,Section9,AppendixGd. Trafficsimulationmodelsusedfortheanalysesshouldbeidentifiedbynameandversion.YesSection1.3,Table1 3,AppendixB,AppendixC SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationN 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentse. Methodsusedtoaddressdatauncertaintiesshouldbedescribed.YesSection3-avoiddoublecountingSection5,AppendixF-4.5%samplingerrorat95%confidenceintervalfortelephonesurvey1.2Assumptionsa. TheplanningbasisfortheETEincludestheassumptionthattheevacuationshouldbeorderedpromptlyandnoearlyprotectiveactionshavebeenimplemented.YesSection2.3-Assumption1Section5.1b. AssumptionsconsistentwithTable1 2,"GeneralAssumptions,"ofNUREG/CR 7002shouldbeprovidedandincludethebasistosupporttheiruse.YesSections2.2,2.31.3ScenarioDevelopmenta. ThetenscenariosinTable1 3,EvacuationScenarios,shouldbedevelopedfortheETEanalysis,orareasonshouldbeprovidedforuseofotherscenarios.YesTables2 1,6 21.3.1StagedEvacuationa. Adiscussionshouldbeprovidedontheapproachusedindevelopmentofastagedevacuation.YesSections5.4.2,7.21.4EvacuationPlanningAreasa. AmapofEPZwithemergencyresponseplanningareas(ERPAs)shouldbeincluded.YesFigure6 1b. AtableshouldbeprovidedidentifyingtheERPAsconsideredforeachETEcalculationbydownwinddirectionineachsector.YesTables6 1,7 7,H 1 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationN 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsc. AtablesimilartoTable1 4,"EvacuationAreasforaStagedEvacuationKeyhole,"ofNUREG/CR 7002shouldbeprovidedandincludesthecompleteevacuationofthe2,5,and10mileareasandforthe2milearea/5milekeyholeevacuations.YesTable6 1,7 7,H 12.0DemandEstimationa. Demandestimationshouldbedevelopedforthefourpopulationgroups,includingpermanentresidentsoftheEPZ,transients,specialfacilities,andschools.YesPermanentresidents-Section3Employeesandtransients-Section3,AppendixESpecialfacilities,schools-Section8,AppendixE2.1PermanentResidentsandTransientPopulationa. TheUSCensusshouldbethesourceofthepopulationvalues,oranothercrediblesourceshouldbeprovided.YesSection3.1b. PopulationvaluesshouldbeadjustedasnecessaryforgrowthtoreflectpopulationestimatestotheyearoftheETE.Yes2010usedasthebaseyearforanalysis.c. Asectordiagramshouldbeincluded,similartoFigure2 1,"PopulationbySector,"ofNUREG/CR 7002,showingthepopulationdistributionforpermanentresidents.YesFigure3 22.1.1PermanentResidentswithVehiclesa. Thepersonspervehiclevalueshouldbebetween1and2orjustificationshouldbeprovidedforothervalues.Yes1.85personspervehiclebasedontelephonesurveyresults-seeTable1 3 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationN 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsb. Majoremployersshouldbelisted.YesSection3.52.1.2TransientPopulationa. Alistoffacilitieswhichattracttransientpopulationsshouldbeincluded,andpeakandaverageattendanceforthesefacilitiesshouldbelisted.Thesourceofinformationusedtodevelopattendancevaluesshouldbeprovided.YesSections3.3,3.4,AppendixEb. Theaveragepopulationduringtheseasonshouldbeused,itemizedandtotaledforeachscenario.YesTables3 4,3 5andAppendixEitemizethetransientpopulationandemployeeestimates.TheseestimatesaremultipliedbythescenariospecificpercentagesprovidedinTable6 3toestimateaveragetransientpopulationbyscenario.c. Thepercentofpermanentresidentsassumedtobeatfacilitiesshouldbeestimated.YesSections3.3,3.4,3.5d. Thenumberofpeoplepervehicleshouldbeprovided.Numbersmayvarybyscenario,andifso,discussiononwhyvaluesvaryshouldbeprovided.YesSections3.3,3.4,3.5e. Asectordiagramshouldbeincluded,similartoFigure2 1ofNUREG/CR 7002,showingthepopulationdistributionforthetransientpopulation.YesFigure3 6-transientsFigure3 8-employees2.2TransitDependentPermanentResidentsa. Themethodologyusedtodeterminethenumberoftransitdependentresidentsshouldbediscussed.YesSection8.1,Table8 1b. Transportationresourcesneededtoevacuatethisgroupshouldbequantified.YesSection8.1,Tables8 5,8 9 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationN 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsc. Thecounty/localevacuationplansfortransitdependentresidentsshouldbeusedintheanalysis.YesSection8.1Section8.4-page8 7d. Themethodologyusedtodeterminethenumberofpeoplewithdisabilitiesandthosewithaccessandfunctionalneedswhomayneedassistanceanddonotresideinspecialfacilitiesshouldbeprovided.Datafromlocal/countyregistrationprogramsshouldbeusedintheestimate,butshouldnotbetheonlysetofdata.YesSection8.5e. Capacitiesshouldbeprovidedforalltypesoftransportationresources.Busseatingcapacityof50%shouldbeusedorjustificationshouldbeprovidedforhighervalues.YesSection2.3-Assumption10Sections3.6,8.1,8.2,8.3f. Anestimateofthispopulationshouldbeprovidedandinformationshouldbeprovidedthattheexistingregistrationprogramswereusedindevelopingtheestimate.YesTable8 1-transitdependentsSection8.5-specialneedsg. Asummarytableofthetotalnumberofbuses,ambulances,orothertransportneededtosupportevacuationshouldbeprovidedandthequantificationofresourcesshouldbedetailedenoughtoassuredoublecountinghasnotoccurred.YesSections8.3,8.4Table8 52.3SpecialFacilityResidentsa. Alistofspecialfacilities,includingthetypeoffacility,location,andaveragepopulationshouldbeprovided.Specialfacilitystaffshouldbeincludedinthetotalspecialfacilitypopulation.YesSection8,Table8 4AppendixE,TableE 3 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationN 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsb. Adiscussionshouldbeprovidedonhowspecialfacilitydatawasobtained.YesSection3 6,Section8.3c. Thenumberofwheelchairandbed boundindividualsshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.3,Table8 4,TableE 3d. Anestimateofthenumberandcapacityofvehiclesneededtosupporttheevacuationofthefacilityshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.3Tables8 4,8 5e. Thelogisticsformobilizingspeciallytrainedstaff(e.g.,medicalsupportorsecuritysupportforprisons,jails,andothercorrectionalfacilities)shouldbediscussedwhenappropriate.YesSections8.42.4Schoolsa. Alistofschoolsincludingname,location,studentpopulation,andtransportationresourcesrequiredtosupporttheevacuation,shouldbeprovided.Thesourceofthisinformationshouldbeprovided.YesTable8 2,TablesE 1,E 2Section8.2b. Transportationresourcesforelementaryandmiddleschoolsshouldbebasedon100%oftheschoolcapacity.YesSection8.2,Table8 2c. Theestimateofhighschoolstudentswhowillusetheirpersonalvehicletoevacuateshouldbeprovidedandabasisforthevaluesusedshouldbediscussed.YesSection8.2d. Theneedforreturntripsshouldbeidentifiedifnecessary.YesTherearesufficientresourcestoevacuateschoolsinasinglewave.However,Section8.4andFigure8 1discussthepotentialforamultiplewaveevacuation2.5.1SpecialEvents SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationN 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsa. Acompletelistofspecialeventsshouldbeprovidedandincludesinformationonthepopulation,estimatedduration,andseasonoftheevent.YesSection3.8b. ThespecialeventthatencompassesthepeaktransientpopulationshouldbeanalyzedintheETE.YesSection3.8c. Thepercentofpermanentresidentsattendingtheeventshouldbeestimated.YesSection3.82.5.2ShadowEvacuationa. Ashadowevacuationof20percentshouldbeincludedforareasoutsidetheevacuationareaextendingto15milesfromtheNPP.YesSection2.2-Assumption5Figures2 1,7 1Section3.2b. Populationestimatesfortheshadowevacuationinthe10to15mileareabeyondtheEPZareprovidedbysector.YesSection3.2Figure3 4Table3 3c. Theloadingoftheshadowevacuationontotheroadwaynetworkshouldbeconsistentwiththetripgenerationtimegeneratedforthepermanentresidentpopulation.YesSection5-Table5 82.5.3BackgroundandPassThroughTraffica. Thevolumeofbackgroundtrafficandpassthroughtrafficisbasedontheaveragedaytimetraffic.Valuesmaybereducedfornighttimescenarios.YesSection3.7Section6Tables3 6,6 3,6 4 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationN 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsb. PassthroughtrafficisassumedtohavestoppedenteringtheEPZabouttwohoursaftertheinitialnotification.YesSection2.3-Assumption5(locallawenforcementcanmanaccesscontrolpointsat30minutesafterinitialnotification).Section3.7Table6 32.6SummaryofDemandEstimationa. Asummarytableshouldbeprovidedthatidentifiesthetotalpopulationsandtotalvehiclesusedinanalysisforpermanentresidents,transients,transitdependentresidents,specialfacilities,schools,shadowpopulation,andpass throughdemandusedineachscenario.YesTables3 7,3 83.0RoadwayCapacitya. Themethod(s)usedtoassessroadwaycapacityshouldbediscussed.YesSection43.1RoadwayCharacteristicsa. AfieldsurveyofkeyrouteswithintheEPZhasbeenconducted.YesSection1.3b. Informationshouldbeprovideddescribingtheextentofthesurvey,andtypesofinformationgatheredandusedintheanalysis.YesSection1.3c. AtablesimilartothatinAppendixA,"RoadwayCharacteristics,"ofNUREG/CR 7002shouldbeprovided.YesAppendixK,TableK 1d. Calculationsforarepresentativeroadwaysegmentshouldbeprovided.YesSection4 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationN 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentse. AlegiblemapoftheroadwaysystemthatidentifiesnodenumbersandsegmentsusedtodeveloptheETEshouldbeprovidedandshouldbesimilartoFigure3 1,"RoadwayNetworkIdentifyingNodesandSegments,"ofNUREG/CR 7002.YesAppendixK,FiguresK 1throughK 37presenttheentirelink nodeanalysisnetworkatascalesuitabletoidentifyalllinksandnodes3.2CapacityAnalysisa. Theapproachusedtocalculatetheroadwaycapacityforthetransportationnetworkshouldbedescribedindetailandidentifiesfactorsthatshouldbeexpresslyusedinthemodeling.YesSection4b. ThecapacityanalysisidentifieswherefieldinformationshouldbeusedintheETEcalculation.YesSection1.3,Section43.3IntersectionControla. Alistofintersectionsshouldbeprovidedthatincludesthetotalnumberofintersectionsmodeledthatareunsignalized,signalized,ormannedbyresponsepersonnel.YesAppendixK,TableK 2b. Characteristicsforthe10highestvolumeintersectionswithintheEPZareprovidedincludingthelocation,signalcyclelength,andturnlanequeuecapacity.YesTableJ 1c. Discussionshouldbeprovidedonhowsignalcycletimeisusedinthecalculations.YesSection4.1,AppendixC SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationN 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisComments3.4AdverseWeathera. Theadverseweatherconditionshouldbeidentifiedandtheeffectsofadverseweatheronmobilizationtimeshouldbeconsidered.YesTable2 1,Section2.3-Assumption9Mobilizationtime-Table2 2b. ThespeedandcapacityreductionfactorsidentifiedinTable3 1,"WeatherCapacityFactors,"ofNUREG/CR 7002shouldbeusedorabasisshouldbeprovidedforothervalues.YesTable2 2-basedonHCM2010.ThefactorsprovidedinTable3 1ofNUREG/CR 7002arefromHCM2000.c. Thestudyidentifiesassumptionsforsnowremovalonstreetsanddriveways,whenapplicable.YesNotapplicable.4.0DevelopmentofEvacuationTimes4.1TripGenerationTimea. Theprocessusedtodeveloptripgenerationtimesshouldbeidentified.YesSection5b. Whentelephonesurveysareused,thescopeofthesurvey,areaofsurvey,numberofparticipants,andstatisticalrelevanceshouldbeprovided.YesAppendixFc. Dataobtainedfromtelephonesurveysshouldbesummarized.YesAppendixFd. Thetripgenerationtimeforeachpopulationgroupshouldbedevelopedfromsitespecificinformation.YesSection5,AppendixF SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationN 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisComments4.1.1PermanentResidentsandTransientPopulationa. Permanentresidentsareassumedtoevacuatefromtheirhomesbutarenotassumedtobeathomeatalltimes.Tripgenerationtimeincludestheassumptionthatapercentageofresidentswillneedtoreturnhomepriortoevacuating.YesSection5discussestripgenerationforhouseholdswithandwithoutreturningcommuters.Table6 3presentsthepercentageofhouseholdswithreturningcommutersandthepercentageofhouseholdseitherwithoutreturningcommutersorwithnocommuters.AppendixFpresentsthepercenthouseholdswhowillawaitthereturnofcommuters.Section2.3,Assumption3b. Discussionshouldbeprovidedonthetimeandmethodusedtonotifytransients.Thetripgenerationtimediscussesanydifficultiesnotifyingpersonsinhardtoreachareassuchasonlakesorincampgrounds.YesSection5.4.3c. Thetripgenerationtimeaccountsfortransientspotentiallyreturningtohotelspriortoevacuating.YesSection5,Figure5 1d. Effectofpublictransportationresourcesusedduringspecialeventswherealargenumberoftransientsshouldbeexpectedshouldbeconsidered.YesSection3.8e. Thetripgenerationtimeforthetransientpopulationshouldbeintegratedandloadedontothetransportationnetworkwiththegeneralpublic.YesSection5,Table5 9 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationN 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisComments4.1.2TransitDependentResidentsa. Ifavailable,existingplansandbusroutesshouldbeusedintheETEanalysis.IfnewplansshouldbedevelopedwiththeETE,theyhavebeenagreeduponbytheresponsibleauthorities.YesSection8.4-page8 7.Preestablishedbusroutesdonotexist.BasicbusroutesweredevelopedfortheETEanalysis-seeFigure8 2through8 4,Table8 9.b. Discussionshouldbeincludedonthemeansofevacuatingambulatoryandnonambulatoryresidents.YesSections8.4,8.5c. Thenumber,location,andavailabilityofbuses,andotherresourcesneededtosupportthedemandestimationshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.4,Table8 5d. Logisticaldetails,suchasthetimetoobtainbuses,briefdrivers,andinitiatethebusrouteshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.4,Figure8 1e. Discussionshouldidentifythetimeestimatedfortransitdependentresidentstoprepareandtraveltoabuspickuppoint,anddescribestheexpectedmeansoftraveltothepickuppoint.YesSection8.4,page8 7f. Thenumberofbusstopsandtimeneededtoloadpassengersshouldbediscussed.YesSection8.4g. Amapofbusroutesshouldbeincluded.YesFigure8 2through8 4h. Thetripgenerationtimefornonambulatorypersonsincludesthetimetomobilizeambulancesorspecialvehicles,timetodrivetothehomeofresidents,loadingtime,andtimetodriveoutoftheEPZshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.5,Table8 14 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationN 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsi. Informationshouldbeprovidedtosupportsanalysisofreturntrips,ifnecessary.YesSection8.4Figure8 1Tables8 10and8 114.1.3SpecialFacilitiesa. Informationonevacuationlogisticsandmobilizationtimesshouldbeprovided.YesSections8.4,page8 9Tables8 12and8 13b. Discussionshouldbeprovidedontheinboundandoutboundspeeds.YesSections8.4c. Thenumberofwheelchairandbed boundsindividualsshouldbeprovided,andthelogisticsofevacuatingtheseresidentsshouldbediscussed.YesSection8.4,Tables8 4,8 12and8 13d. TimeforloadingofresidentsshouldbeprovidedYesSections8.4,Table28 12and8 13e. Informationshouldbeprovidedthatindicateswhethertheevacuationcanbecompletedinasingletriporifadditionaltripsshouldbeneeded.YesSections8.4f. Ifreturntripsshouldbeneeded,thedestinationofvehiclesshouldbeprovided.YesSections8.4g. Discussionshouldbeprovidedonwhetherspecialfacilityresidentsareexpectedtopassthroughthereceptioncenterpriortobeingevacuatedtotheirfinaldestination.YesSections8.4h. Supportinginformationshouldbeprovidedtoquantifythetimeelementsforthereturntrips.YesSections8.4 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationN 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisComments4.1.4Schoolsa. Informationonevacuationlogisticsandmobilizationtimeshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.4,page8 6b. Discussionshouldbeprovidedontheinboundandoutboundspeeds.YesSchoolbusroutesarepresentedinTable8 6SchoolbusspeedsarepresentedinTables8 7and8 8Section8.4discussesinboundandoutboundspeedsc. Timeforloadingofstudentsshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.4Tables8 7and8 8d. Informationshouldbeprovidedthatindicateswhethertheevacuationcanbecompletedinasingletriporifadditionaltripsareneeded.YesSection8.4,page8 6e. Ifreturntripsareneeded,thedestinationofschoolbusesshouldbeprovided.YesReturntripsarenotneeded.Sufficientresourcestoevacuateinsinglewavef. Ifused,receptioncentersshouldbeidentified.Discussionshouldbeprovidedonwhetherstudentsareexpectedtopassthroughthereceptioncenterpriortobeingevacuatedtotheirfinaldestination.YesTable8 3.StudentsareevacuatedtoReception&DecontaminationCenterswheretheywillbepickedupbyparentsorguardians SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationN 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsg. Supportinginformationshouldbeprovidedtoquantifythetimeelementsforthereturntrips.YesReturntripsarenotneeded.Tables8 7and8 8providetimeneededtoarriveatreceptioncenter,whichcouldbeusedtocomputeasecondwaveevacuationifnecessary4.2ETEModelinga. GeneralinformationaboutthemodelshouldbeprovidedanddemonstratesitsuseinETEstudies.YesDYNEVII(Ver.4.0.11.0)System.Section1.3,Table1 3,AppendixB,AppendixCb. IfatrafficsimulationmodelisnotusedtoconducttheETEcalculation,sufficientdetailshouldbeprovidedtovalidatetheanalyticalapproachused.Allcriteriaelementsshouldhavebeenmet,asappropriate.NoNotapplicableasatrafficsimulationmodelwasused4.2.1TrafficSimulationModelInputa. Trafficsimulationmodelassumptionsandarepresentativesetofmodelinputsshouldbeprovided.YesAppendicesBandCdescribethesimulationmodelassumptionsandalgorithmsTableJ 2-modelinputsb. Aglossaryoftermsshouldbeprovidedforthekeyperformancemeasuresandparametersusedintheanalysis.YesAppendixATablesC 1,C 24.2.2TrafficSimulationModelOutputa. AdiscussionregardingwhetherthetrafficsimulationmodelusedmustbeinequilibrationpriortocalculatingtheETEshouldbeprovided.YesAppendixB SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationN 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsb. Theminimumfollowingmodeloutputsshouldbeprovidedtosupportreview:1. TotalvolumeandpercentbyhourateachEPZexitnode.2. Networkwideaveragetraveltime.3. Longestqueuelengthforthe10intersectionswiththehighesttrafficvolume.4. Totalvehiclesexitingthenetwork.5. AplotthatprovidesboththemobilizationcurveandevacuationcurveidentifyingthecumulativepercentageofevacueeswhohavemobilizedandexitedtheEPZ.6. AveragespeedforeachmajorevacuationroutethatexitstheEPZ.Yes1. TableJ 5.2. TableJ 3.3. TableJ 1.4. TableJ 3.5. FiguresJ 1throughJ 13(oneplotforeachscenarioconsidered

).6. TableJ 4.NetworkwideaveragespeedalsoprovidedinTableJ 3.c. Colorcodedroadwaymapsshouldbeprovidedforvarioustimes(i.e.,at2,4,6hrs.,etc.)duringafullEPZevacuationscenario,identifyingareaswherelongqueuesexistincludinglevelofservice(LOS)"E"andLOS"F"conditions,iftheyoccur.YesFigures7 3through7 94.3EvacuationTimeEstimatesfortheGeneralPublica. TheETEshouldincludethetimetoevacuate90%and100%ofthetotalpermanentresidentandtransientpopulationYesTables7 1,7 2 SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationN 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsb. TheETEfor100%ofthegeneralpublicshouldincludeallmembersofthegeneralpublic.Anyreductionsortruncateddatashouldbeexplained.YesSection5.4-truncatingsurveydatatoeliminatestatisticaloutliersTable7 2-100 thpercentileETEforgeneralpopulationc. Tablesshouldbeprovidedforthe90and100percentETEssimilartoTable4 3,"ETEsforStagedEvacuationKeyhole,"ofNUREG/CR 7002.YesTables7 3through7 6d. ETEsshouldbeprovidedforthe100percentevacuationofspecialfacilities,transitdependent,andschoolpopulations.YesSections8.4through8.6Tables8 7and8 8,8 10through8 145.0OtherConsiderations5.1DevelopmentofTrafficControlPlansa. Informationthatresponsibleauthoritieshaveapprovedthetrafficcontrolplanusedintheanalysisshouldbeprovided.YesSection9,AppendixGb. AdiscussionofadjustmentsoradditionstothetrafficcontrolplanthataffecttheETEshouldbeprovided.YesSection9,AppendixG5.2EnhancementsinEvacuationTimea. Theresultsofassessmentsforimprovementofevacuationtimeshouldbeprovided.YesSection13,AppendixMb. Astatementordiscussionregardingpresentationofenhancementstolocalauthoritiesshouldbeprovided.YesResultsoftheETEstudywereformallypresentedtolocalauthoritiesatthefinalprojectmeeting.Recommendedenhancementswerediscussed.

SanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStationN 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisComments5.3StateandLocalReviewa. Alistofagenciescontactedandtheextentofinteractionwiththeseagenciesshouldbediscussed.YesTable1 1b. InformationshouldbeprovidedonanyunresolvedissuesthatmayaffecttheETE.YesTherearenounresolvedissues.Allissuesraisedbystakeholdersatboththeprojectkickoffmeetingsandthefinalmeetinghavebeenaddressedandincorporatedinthisfinalreport.5.4ReviewsandUpdatesa. AdiscussionofwhenanupdatedETEanalysisisrequiredtobeperformedandsubmittedtotheNRC.YesAppendixM,SectionM.35.5ReceptionCentersandCongregateCareCentera. Amapofcongregatecarecentersandreceptioncentersshouldbeprovided.YesFigure10 1b. Ifreturntripsarerequired,assumptionsusedtoestimatereturntimesforbusesshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.4discussesamulti waveevacuationprocedure.Figure8 1c. Itshouldbeclearlystatedifitisassumedthatpassengersareleftatthereceptioncenterandaretakenbyseparatebusestothecongregatecarecenter.YesSection2.3-Assumption7hSection10