SBK-L-15181, FPL-081-PR-002, Revision 0, Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report, Figure 4-34 Through Figure the End
| ML15274A215 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Seabrook  |
| Issue date: | 09/25/2015 |
| From: | Collins M, Kline S, Pistininzi J, Gerald Williams Enercon Services |
| To: | Document Control Desk, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation |
| Shared Package | |
| ML15274A245 | List: |
| References | |
| SBK-L-15181 FPL-081-PR-002, Rev. 0 | |
| Download: ML15274A215 (28) | |
Text
Synoptic Wind and Prcssure Field Analysis Extent Scabrook Station Nuclear Power Plant 80'W 75Wt 70OW 65'W 60*W gow nK*W
¢J*UU 4'SW SO0N-55'N.
50ON-45'N" 40*N eON 30'No NextEra Energy (NEE)
O EN ER CO N Seabrook StationFiue44 Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report Grid Domain Used in the Seabrook PMWS Analysis
Reference:
ESRI, 2015a FPL-081-PR-002 REV. 0
Hourly Surface Stations 7 1,%V 70"W
,,,4'h"
,-43'4
- SeaBrook Nuclear Plant
- Stal'ons Used
- Staions ?J( Used 12"W 71,W 78W M tes 0
20 40 80 NextEra Energy (NEE)
FO EN ER CO N Seabrook Station Figure 4-35 Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report Location of Stations Used in the Wind and Pressure Recurrence Interval Analysis
Reference:
ESRI, 2015a; NOAA, 2014i, 2014j FPL-081-PR-002 REV. 0
Generate 30,400 synthetic H Run the storms through SLOSH model, determine the surge on the tropical storm tracks passing open coast near Seabrook. Perform statistical analysis of all 20,400 within 150 km of 5eabrook sirge estimates. Identify return periods.j a*
I Identify the 10 tracks with the highest wind velocities over Seabrook site.
'dii Identify the 10 tracks with tl~e highest storm surge as computed by SLOSH on the open roast.
I completely cover the range of surg~e values computed with SLOSHI on the= open coast I I U
SRun the identifled tracks through *the Delf't3D model to compire the surge at the Sealbrwxk site.
I j
Pefr titclaayi fUsingregreo eqainEstablish a linear regression esiatsIdniy eta ete a=
set of 20'A00 Delft3D reetmts=
ebetween open coast SLOSHI aIAdd 10% exceedance tide to surge estimates, Perform statistical analysis. Identify return periods OENERCON Figure 4-36 Hurricane Climatology Methodology Flow Diagram
Reference:
FPL-081-PR-002 REV. 0
~1 (a) Gene7tsfor~a~Tk (b) Density of genesis points for 9
8 7
8 S
4 3
2 1
8o0 64w 48w NextEra Energy (NEE)
(O ENERCON Seabrook Station Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report Figure 4-37 Genesis Points and Their Probability Distribution for Seabrook FPL-081-PR-002 REV. 0
E C
3/
15 Time (days)
NextEra Energy (NEE) 0* ENERCON Seabrook Station Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report Figure 4-38 Example of Random Time Series Generated Using Equations 4-5 and 4-6 FPL-081-PR-002 REV. 0
ERA40; 1,000 Tracks 70" N-30' N-
- 10. N-10" S 30" S-50" S 70" S-
-90" N 5O. N 30" N 10" N o10'S 3OOS 507O5 Safflr-Simpson Hurricane Scale Category Wind speeds 43-49 m/s, 83-95 kts Two 96-110 mph, 154-t77 kmlh 33-42 m/s, 64-82 kts One 74-95 mph, 119-153 kmih Additional classifications 2
-~
I I
I I
U.
U Ma U.
U.
w w
w w
i S
S I
(colors show Saffir-Simpson intensity)
NextEra Energy (NEE)
EN ER CO N Seabrook Station Figure 4-39 Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report Randomly Selected Tracks Generated Using Statistics from the ERA4O Reanalysis FPL-081-PR-002 REV. 0
NextEra Energy (NEE) 0 EN ER CO N Figure 4-40 Seabrook Station Comparison of 6-hour West-East (a) and South-North Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report (b) North Atlantic track displacements between HURDAT
_______________________________________________________________Bl__e)__ad____nd (Bue) adhWindnskheh tsynhetic(red)track FPL-081-PR-002 REV. 0
4{a) Z946 synthetic events 50"N 30"N 20FN 10"N Hurricane track density fb) 399 HURDAT tracs, 1970-2005 50°N 40"N 30"N 10rN (c) 399 synthetic tracks SON 40*N 3ON 20N wu- ~o-~
rw wow zo-w 80"W 6"W 40"W z0"W 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 GA0.5
~
0.6 0.7 Number of events per 2.5" x 2.5" area per year 0.00 0.02 U41W bU 4owW ZU~rW 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 NextEra Energy (NEE) 0 EN E R CON Seabrook Station Figure 4-41 Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report Number of hurricane tracks per 2.5° latitude-longitude box FPL-081-PR-002 REV. 0
NextEra Energy (NEE)
O EN ER C ON Seabrook Station Figure 4-42 Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report Track Set with Maximum Wind Speeds Near Seabrook
Reference:
ESRI, 2015a FPL-081-PR-002 REV. 0
NextEra Energy (NEE)
EN ER CO N Seabrook Station Figure 4-43 Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report Tracks Set Producing Maximum Storm Surge with SLOSH model at Seabrook
Reference:
ESRI, 2015a FPL-081-PR-002 REV. 0
2 0.93 00 E
1.5 1
0.5 0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2 0
10 20 30 40 50 60 70¸ 80 Elapsed Time (hours)
- WSEL
-10% Exceedance High Tide NextEra Energy (NEE)
O EN ER C ON Seabrook Station Figure 4-44 Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report Bounding Synoptic Event Still Water Elevation at Seabrook FPL-081-PR-002 REV. 0
R
- 00004 0.0001 0~000~
0.0004 0.+00I 0.02 0.04 0+01I 040?
Ste $4g+wt@ 1i)+,I c~rr~tc*l.m l'r'.
aft i.I eflcr gT' Figlure *P14.
- dv, r~usp
- Lap.eruabtw, v*rtic1 ml wer al~m 1~I/g 0
+m'mlF
+ ++ *"mp* + *Ir llm+qllr NextEra Energy (NEE)0 EN RN Seabrook Station Figure 4-45 Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report Wave Runup on Impermeable, Vertical Wall
Reference:
USAGE, 2011 FPL-072-PR-002 REV. 0
20*
I I
z
-JUJ Bol~om of,SwowlI TuS..SLR.Sut l
Swge; 94¶775I 010 1
2 3
4 5
1O 12 7
8 9
11 I
Saanttac~er~t Wa~vo ~i.ioI~t O~ *1 SeawaU I l~r..t~oad (~) at Seawall o? i0~
o o0 0
i 1
2
- 3 5
S 7
S a
10 ii 12
- 1.
- I 25r-0 )
Ow1op~*~g Volume tSop.d Pros~
Ove.1op~*g Volume ~Ve4oaI WW) -
2 3
Time (hr)
NextEra Energy (NEE) 0 EN E R CON Seabrook Station Figure 4-46 Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report Time Series of Wave Overtopping FPL-072-PR-002 REV. 0
Domain and Bathymnetry points I
42.93 42.92 42.91F
~1 42.9F 42.89F 42.88 42.87F
-70.86
- L.
-70.85
-70.84
-70.83 Longitude.
-70.82
-70.18!
NextEra Energy (NEE)
O ENERCON Seabrook Station Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report Figure 4-47 Basin Domain and Bathymetry Points (cyan) for Hampton Harbor FPL-081-PR-002 REV. 0
Tsunami Observations Water Height 0-1ino¢ unkqnown 1-2m 2-~5m 5-10mn 10+m Deep Ocean Gauge I
I I
I I
Eyewitness O~wvatioos/ I I
lu ll Post-Tsunami 5urveys I ii ii lull NextEra Energy (NEE) 0 EN ER CO N Seabrook Station Figure 4-48 Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report Recorded Tsunami Runup Events on the Northeast
- ___Coast, USA
Reference:
ESRI, 2015a, 2015b; NOAA, 2014m FPL-081-PR-002 REV. 0
location observation ooints: <multiple>
meters-MSL 42.95r 20 15 10 42.9-I (n
0j o1)
-. I.
5 0
PMLW Obs. Point 42.85
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30 42.8
-70.86
-70.84
-70.82
-70.8
-70.78
-70.76
-70.74
-70.72 Longitude (degrees)
NextEra Energy (NEE)
O ENERCON Seabrook Station Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report Figure 4-49 Delft3D PMT Observation Points for Seabrook WSEL FPL-081-PR-002 REV. 0
NextEra Energy (NEE)
O E NER CO N Seabrook Station Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report Figure 4-50 Seismic Source Definitions FPL-081-PR-002 REV. 0
crigin tume Epcent" M, (CM)
Strike Depth Depy offoff 2032 18 Nov 1929 (DG)'
44.69* N 56.00o W (DG)y 7.2 +/- 0.3 7.1 +/-+ 0.2 7.1 _ 0.1 7.3 __ 3 x 10*" N-rn (10zt dyne-cmn)
Firet Subevent 12? _.5 140'+/-5° 20 +/-+ 2kin 3.3 +/- 3 x 10'tN-m Secnd Sbva 24+/-
10 0O 59"_+ 10" 1660+/-+_100 20 +/- 3kmn 1.9 __ 1 X I10"N-m 8 +/- 2aec 7.9 +/- 0.9 sec 28 +/- 24km
.w305 (see texit)
Dip*
Azilmuthl offset U,'
T N
P ThdSubevem 2A9+/-* 150 597+/-10" 166+/-l?15 20 +/- Skmn 1.9 +/- I X 10~' N..m 8 +/- 2sec 23.5 +/-t O.8sec 100__. 26 km 32O0 +/- 100 cf F Solution X 10O N-m 5.3 +/- 1.1
-0.51 +/- 0.5
-4.7 +/- 0.5 0.04 +/-O0.
2,3+/-4.0.5
-5.2 +/-. 1.0 xau I 0" N-rn, plne azimuth 6.1, 66.77, 232.27 2.4, 21.63, 29.67
- 8.6, 8.07, 122.98
- Sourcc paanti obtained in this stud unlen stat.ed od~zwie.
,DO Dewey and Gordon (1984).
5.
NextEra Energy (NEE)
E NER CO N Seabrook Station Figure 4-51 Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report 1929 Grand Banks Earthquake and Subevent Characteristics
Reference:
Bent, 1995 FPL-081-PR-002 REV. 0
9
- ::i Historical I
- S coticn Margin
/
E!!if 1q75*
Eaarhqu~ke I0 S1929 Eartqua
°I7°
- Epicenter "
- o, 600
,o 929 3 I.7Ž!
41 N
NextEra Energy (NEE) 0 E NER CO N Seabrook Station Figure 4-52 Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report Historical Earthquakes on the Scotian Margin
Reference:
Campbell et al., 2003 FPL-081-PR-002 REV. 0
1 0-01 Morm =9.58 EL Mmax -9.28 10-02 Mmax =9.23 M max.8.95 10-°3 1 0-04 I
tt 1 0-05 7
7.5 8
8.5 9
9.5 NextEra Energy (NEE)
Seabrook Station Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report ENERCON Figure 4-53 Earthquake Size Distribution for the Caribbean Subduction Zone FPL-081 -PR-002
Displacement (in)
- i*
LA i*
- u*
- /tl a**
Distance from Epicenter (kin)
NextEra Energy (NEE)
Seabrook Station Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report
A Displacement (in) 14
- 0)
- Vti, TY Distance from Epicenter (kin)
Next~a Enrgy NEE)Figure 4-55 SexrabEnrook Statio Hispaniola Trench Ocean Bed Deformation for Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report Length = 700kmn, Width = 87.75 kin, Slip = 10 in.,
Depth = 8 kin, Dip = 20 degrees, Strike = N95 degrees, Rake = 90 degrees Solved with the Analytic Formulas Presented in Okada (1985)
FPL-081-PR-002 REV. 0
Next:Era Energy (NEE)
____E___
N__ E___R______0
___N Seabrook Station Figure 4-56 Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report Location of the Marques de Pombal Fault (MPF)
Earthquake Source
Reference:
USGS, 2008 FPL-081-PR-002 REV. 0
t i* *s m a~
13 14 13,13 mI
,4*
'- s
'.4I -
NextEra Energy (NEE)
EN R O
Seabrook Station Figure 4-57 Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report Maximum Tsunami Wave Amplitude (in) from the
____________________________________________________________Ma___u__sd__
arqueade PmbalFault(MPF
Reference:
USGS, 2008 FPL-081-PR-002 REV. 0
JLegend
- Seabrook
- Ice Jam
[~Hydrologic Unit Code
~m MAVIVQ I*~ydww~
~.
m p a~a gtpCo L4a~. rAG
~
t wt~
12 I
NextEra Energy (NEE) 0 ENERCON Seabrook Station Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report Figure 4-58 Ice Jam Locations Referenced to Index Number Reference. USACE, 2014 FPL-081-PR-002 REV. 0
NextEra Energy (NEE)
O ENE RCON Seabrook Station Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report Figure 4-59 Hydrostatic Pressure on Vertical Wall FPL-081-PR-002 REV. 0
NextEra Energy (NEE)
O___E___
N___
E___R___C
___O
___N Seabrook Station Figure 4-60 Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report Hydrodynamic Forces
Reference:
FEMA. 2012 FPL-072-PR-002 REV. 0
I Hispaniola Seismic Event 2.5
-J LU 2
1.5F I'
I,/
1 0.5 0
!f
-1 2
4 6
8 Elapsed Time (hours) 10 NextEra Energy (NEE) 0 ENERCON Seabrook Station Flooding Hazards Reevaluation Report Figure 4-61 Tsunami-induced Probable Minimum Low Water at Seabrook without PMF FPL-081-PR-002 REV. 0