ML102930391

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2010/08/17-Exhibit 18 of 21-Deepwater Offshore Wind, a National Opportunity
ML102930391
Person / Time
Site: Seabrook NextEra Energy icon.png
Issue date: 08/17/2010
From: Dagher H
Univ of Maine
To:
NRC/SECY
SECY RAS
Shared Package
ML102930267 List:
References
License Renewal 6, RAS 18941, 50-443-LR
Download: ML102930391 (42)
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Deepwater Offshore Wind A National Opport Opportunity nit August 17, 2010 Dr. H.J. Dagher, P.E., Director Advanced Structures and Composites Center DeepCwind Consortium University of Maine 2075812138 hd@umit.maine.edu

Outline 1.

1 UMaine Composites Center

2. US & Europe offshore wind
3. Foundation types & floating platforms
4. Cost - Can we gget there?
5. Timeline DeepCwind Consortium Dr. H. J. Dagher, (207) 5812138 hd@umit.maine.edu

UMaine Advanced Structures

& Composites Center Composites Construction Industry Industry

  • Established by NSF in 1996 $30 Million
  • 140 personnel Off h Offshore Wind Wi d addition ddi i
  • 87,000 ft2 ISO 17025 Accredited Lab
  • Analysis & Design Prototyping Code Reports Testing Dr. H. J. Dagher (207) 5812138 hd@umit.maine.edu

Longest g Composites p Bridge g in the World Dr. H. J. Dagher (207) 5812138 hd@umit.maine.edu

Penobscot Narrows Bridge g CFRP Strands Dr. H. J. Dagher (207) 5812138 hd@umit.maine.edu

Bridge g in a Backpack p

  • Arches inflated on site, filled with concrete
  • Spinoff: Advanced Infrastructure Technologies, Technologies LLC Arch Placement Decking Installation Completed Bridge Dr. H. J. Dagher (207) 5812138 hd@umit.maine.edu

Twice the State Budget L

Leaves M Maine i

$ 5 Billion/year Leave Maine Dr. H. J. Dagher (207) 5812138 7 hd@umit.maine.edu

New Energy gy Mosaic 9 $/kWh 9 Public acceptance?

9 Impact on economy?

9 Impact on environment?

Dr. H. J. Dagher (207) 5812138 8 hd@umit.maine.edu

Maine Familyy Budget g Energy ~5% Energy ~20%2 Energy

~40%3 Family Energy1,2 = 50% Transportation 40% Heating 1

10% Electric El i Power P

Source:, Dr. George Hart, UMaine 2 Based July 08 energy costs 3 Assumes that health care costs do not grow past 30% of the average family budget in 20082018

Deepwater Wind:

Largest US Ocean Energy Resource Source: Walter Musial, NREL (2008)

Dr. H. J. Dagher (207) 5812138 hd@umit.maine.edu

Maine: A Source of Green Energy for the Northeast U.S.

149 GW off Maine 55 million people Dr. H. J. Dagher (207) 5812138 hd@umit.maine.edu

U.S. Proposed Offshore Wind Projects US Offshore Wind Initiatives Project State MW Capewind MA 468 Hull Municipal MA 15 Buzzards Bay MA 300 Rhode Island (OER) RI 400 Winergy NY 12 New Jersey (BPU) NJ 350 Delmarva DE 350 Southern Company GA 10 W.E.S.T. TX 150 Atlantic Ocean Cuyahoga County OH 20 25 DeepCwind Consortium ME 1000 2100 Total MW 3000 None Installed Yet Source: Walter Musial, NREL (2009)

UK - Round 3 Bidders Selected 1/8/10 25 GW, GW 1/4 of UK UKss Electricity by 2020 Dr. H. J. Dagher, (207) 5812138 hd@umit.maine.edu

Offshore Wind Classification By y Water Depthp Dr. H.

D H J.

J Dagher D h (207) 5812138 hd@umit.maine.edu Source: Walter Musial, NREL (2009)

Shallow Monopile Foundations:

230 m, m Drilled or Driven, Driven Most Common Dr. H. J. Dagher, (207) 5812138 hd@umit.maine.edu

Shallow Gravity Foundations Middelgrunden 27x 2MW 4 8 m water depth 48 d h Thornton Bank 60 x 5MW 1227.5 m water depth Dr. H. J. Dagher, (207) 5812138 hd@umit.maine.edu

Shallow Gravity Foundations:

Seabed Preparation and Installation Dr. H. J. Dagher (207) 5812138 Source: TU Delft hd@umit.maine.edu

Shallow Gravity Foundations:

Tower Turbine and Blades Installation

Tower, 1 Source : TU Delft: Thornton Bank Dr. H. J. Dagher (207) 5812138 hd@umit.maine.edu

Transitional Waters Foundations (3060m):

Pile Pile Pile Dr. H. J. Dagher, (207) 5812138 hd@umit.maine.edu

European Projects by Foundation Type Installed Foundation Types (2008)

Gravity Multimember Monopiles (most common)

Source: TU Delft

Floating Wind Turbines (>200ft):

Design Space Based On Stability Statoil Hywind Principle Power WinSea Blue H SWAY Dr. H. J. Dagher, (207) 5812138 hd@umit.maine.edu

Statoil Hywind 2.3 MW 213 ft to hub, hub 20'2720 27 Diam., Diam Rotor Diam 270 270 Dr. H. J. Dagher, (207) 5812138 hd@umit.maine.edu

Offshore Wind Slender Tubes Compared to Oil & Gas Designs CLASSIC TRUSS CELL TRUSS Statoil Hywind Spar (20'27 Diameter)

Holstein (149 Diameter)

Dr. H. J. Dagher, (207) 5812138 hd@umit.maine.edu

Surviving 100 Year Events Coupled aeroelastic/hydrodynamic models (J k (Jonkman, NREL)

Model Simulations m:KIWiI THE UNIVERSITY OF r1rJ MAINE

~

Offshore Foundations Cost More Horns Rev and Nysted (Average investment per MW) 25% Opportunities for Cost Reductions Based on 2009 UK Competition?

1 Source: EWEA, Economics of Wind Energy, March 2009

Offshore Wind Production Costs 10 European Farms (2006,/MWh) (2006 /MWh)1 69.2 c/kWh, now double 1 Sources : RISØ DTU , EWEA, Economics of Wind Energy, March 2009

Experience Curves for Land Based Wind1 10% Learning Rate Could Apply to Offshore Wind?

D Down 50%

Constant 2006 Currency 1 Source: EWEA, Economics of Wind Energy, March 2009

DeepCwind Consortium DOE Contract January 2010 35 partners Dr. H. J. Dagher, (207) 5812138 hd@umit.maine.edu

UMaine Test Site Timeline Dr. H. J. Dagher (207) 5812138 hd@umit.maine.edu

UMaine Deepwater p Testbed Dr. H. J. Dagher, (207) 5812138 hd@umit.maine.edu

Ecological g Data

  • 400 Layer y GIS
  • Benthic invertebrates
  • Fish
  • Marine mammals
  • Birds and bats Dr. H. J. Dagher, (207) 5812138 hd@umit.maine.edu

1/3 Scale Model Test 20112012 120 to hub Dr. H. J. Dagher, (207) 5812138 hd@umit.maine.edu

Designg Conditions at UMaine Test Site Wind/Wave UM Deepwater Commercial Tank Test Site Geometric 1/50 1/3 Full Scale Scale Hs Hmax Vhub Hs Hmax Vhub Hs Hmax Vhub 1yr 0.14 0.26 3.82 2.37 4.40 15.6 7.1 13.2 27.0 50yr 0.20 0.37 5.03 3.33 7.19 20.6 10.0 18.6 35.6 100 yr 0.21 0.39 5.16 3.50 7.75 21.1 10.5 19.5 36.5 Hs = Significant Wave Height (average of highest 1/3 waves) (m)

Hmax = Maximum Individual Wave Height (1.86xHs) per IEC 614003 (m)

Vhub = Mean Wind Speed at Hub using wind power law exponent = 0.14 (m/s)

Deployment p y Period Probability of Exceeding 1/3 Scale 50 year Hs ( 3.3m)

Month in one week Lognormal Weibull Rayleigh Jan 47% 52% 43%

Feb 6 %

67% 69% 51%

%

Mar 52% 56% 47%

Apr 42% 47% 42%

May 23% 28% 27%

Jun 5% 7% 9%

Jul 1% 0% 4%

Aug 0% 1% 2%

Sep 7% 4% 12%

Oct 40% 46% 40%

Nov 53% 58% 50%

Dec 35 73% 73% 59%

35 MW Test in 2014 Dr. H. J. Dagher, (207) 5812138 hd@umit.maine.edu

25 MW SteppingStone Floating Farm 2016 RFP September 1, 2010 - 5 Years to Build 1000 MW by b 2020 Design, Build, Monitor Maine Bill LD1810, 20year 20 year PPA Signed Maine Public Law 270 Dr. H. J. Dagher, (207) 5812138 hd@umit.maine.edu

Fabrication & Deployment p y Dr. H. J. Dagher (207) 5812138 hd@umit.maine.edu

Cianbro

  • Task manager for fabrication and deployment.
  • 2,500 employees, provides preconstruction, construction, and maintenance services throughout North America.

Dr. H. J. Dagher (207) 5812138 hd@umit.maine.edu

General Dynamics y BIW

  • 5,000 employees at Bath Iron Works site.
  • Fabrication and deployment.

deployment

  • Maintains and operates drydock.
  • Recently launched its Aegis Destroyer Spruance.

Dr. H. J. Dagher (207) 5812138 hd@umit.maine.edu

Technip p

  • Fabricated Statoils Hywind 1.
  • Design consultant and fabrication consultant.

consultant

  • World leader in engineering, technologies, and project management for the oil and gas industries.

Dr. H. J. Dagher (207) 5812138 hd@umit.maine.edu

The Maine Plan: OvertheHorizon Farms:

A National Electrification Model 3GW 5GW 5 GW electrifies heating and transportation Dr. H. J. Dagher (207) 5812138 hd@umit.maine.edu

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