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Evacuation Time Estimates for Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Plume Exposure Pathway Emergency Planning Zone. Cover Page to Page 7-1
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Site:	Watts Bar
Issue date:	11/30/2012
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To:	; Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation, Tennessee Valley Authority
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Enclosure I-Tennessee Valley Authority Watts Bar Nuclear Plant Units I Evacuation Time Estimates for Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Plume Exposure-Pathway. Emergency Planning Zone (See Attached)

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-S ding Imagine the result Evacuation Time Estimates for Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Plume Exposure Pathway Emergency Planning Zone November 2012 ARCADIS Evacuation Time Estimates for Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Plume Exposure Pathway Emergency Planning Zone Prepared for Tennessee Valley Authority Chattanooga, Tennessee Prepared by:.ARCADIS U.S., Inc.10352 Plaza Americana Drive Baton Rouge Louisiana 70816 Tel 225 292 1004 Fax 225 218 9677 Our Ref.: TM120006.0001 Date: November 2012 This document is intended only for the use of the individual or entity for which it was prepared and may contain information that is privileged, confidential and exempt from disclosure under applicable law. Any dissemination, distribution or copying of this document is strictly prohibited.

0 ARCADIS Table of Contents Executive Summary v 1. Introduction 1-1 1.1 General 1-1 1.2 Site Location and Emergency Planning Zone 1-2 1.3 Designated Reception Centers 1-3 1.4 Overview of Changes from Previous ETE Study 1-4 2. Methodology and Assumptions 2-1 2.1 Sources of Data and General Assumptions 2-1 2.2 Summary of Methodology for Traffic Simulation 2-3 2.3 Conditions Modeled 2-4 2.3.1 Weekday 2-4 2.3.2 Weeknight 2-5 2.3.3 Weekend 2-5 3. Population and Vehicle Demand Evaluation 3-1 3.1 Permanent Residents 3-1 3.1.1 Auto-Owning Permanent Population 3-1 3.1.2 Transport-Dependent Permanent Population 3-2 3.2 Seasonal Residents 3-2 3.3 Transient Population 3-2 3.4 Special Facilities Population 3-4 3.4.1 Medical, Nursing Care, and Correctional Facilities 3-4 3.4.2 Schools and Daycare 3-4 3.5 Emergency Response Planning Area Population Totals 3-4 4. Evacuation Roadway Network 4-1 4.1 Network Definition 4-1 4.2 Evacuation Route Descriptions 4-1 4.3 Characterizing the Evacuation Network 4-1 Watts B. -ETE -VERS.doA ARCADIS Table of Contents 5. Evacuation Time Estimate Methodology 5-1 5.1 Evacuation Analysis Cases 5-1 5.2 Initial Notification 5-3 5.3 Transportation-Dependent Population 5-3 5.4 Evacuation Preparation Times and Departure Distributions 5-3 5.4.1 Permanent and Seasonal Population 5-4 5.4.2 Transient Population 5-4 5.4.3 Special Facilities 5-5 5.5 Evacuation Simulation 5-6 5.5.1 General Structure 5-6 5.5.2 Simulation Process 5-7 6. Analysis of Evacuation Times 6-1 6.1 Evacuation Time Estimate Summary 6-1 6.2 Comparison with Previous Study 6-1 6.3 Keyhole Evacuation Scenarios 6-2 6.4 Staged Evacuation Scenarios 6-2 6.5 TEMA Sector Evacuation Scenarios 6-2 6.6 Sensitivity to Population Growth and Roadway Impact 6-14 6.6.1 Population Growth 6-14 6.6.2 Roadway Impact 6-15 6.7 Performance Metrics for Simulation Model 6-16 6.8 ETE for Transit-Dependent Special Facilities and Schools 6-19 6.9 Special Event 6-23 7. Traffic Control Recommendations 7-1 7.1 General 7-1 7.2 Evacuation Access Control Locations 7-1 7.3 Traffic Management Locations and Tactics to Facilitate Evacuation 7-1 Waftt Bar -ETE -VER5Sdo=ii ARCADIS Tables Table E-1 Evacuation Time Estimate Summary for Watts Bar EPZ Table 1-1 Permanent Resident Population in the Watts Bar EPZ Table 1-2 Designated Reception Centers for Evacuation Table 1-3 ETE Comparison Table 3-1 Resident Population and Vehicle Demand by EPZ Subarea Table 3-2 Transient Population and Vehicle Demand in the Watts Bar EPZ Table 3-3 Population and Vehicle Demand for Schools and Special Facilities in the Watts Bar EPZ Table 3-4 Summary of Population and Vehicle Demand in the Watts Bar EPZ Table 4-1 Watts Bar EPZ Primary Evacuation Routes Table 5-1 Potential Evacuation Areas for Watts Bar EPZ Table 6-1 Evacuation Time Estimate Summary for Watts Bar EPZ Table 6-2 Evacuation Time Estimates for Partial EPZ Scenarios (2-Mile Zone Plus 5-Mile Downwind, Unstaged)Table 6-3 Evacuation Time Estimates for Partial EPZ Scenarios (2-Mile Zone Plus 10-Mile Downwind, Unstaged)Table 6-4 Evacuation Time Estimates for Staged EPZ Scenarios (2-Mile Zone, then 5 Miles Downwind)Table 6-5 Evacuation Time Estimates for TEAM Scetors Table 6-6 Summary of Network Performance (Full 10-Mile EPZ, Winter Weekday, Normal Weather)Table 6-7 ETE for Special Facilities, Watts Bar EPZ (Full 10-Mile EPZ, Winter Weekday, Normal Weather)Table 6-8 ETE for Schools and Daycares, Watts Bar EPZ (Full 10-mile EPZ, Winter Weekday, Normal Weather)Table 7-1 Predicted Queuing at Major Intersections (Full 10-mile EPZ, Winter Weekday, Normal Weather)Table of Contents vii 1-8 1-9 1-10 3-6 3-7 3-9 3-11 4-3 5-2 6-4 6-5 6-8 6-11 6-13 6-17 6-21 6-22 7-1 Watt Ba -ETE -VER5.do=iii ARCADIS Figures Figure 1-1 Watts Bar Nudear Power Plant Site Location Figure 1-2 Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant EPZ Area Figure 1-3 2010 Permanent Resident Population by EPZ Area Figure 4-1 Designated Evacuation Routes for Watts Bar EPZ Figure 5-1 Departure Time Distributions for the Watts Bar EPZ Figure 5-2 Evacuation Modeling and Simulation Using PTV Vision Suite Figure 6-1 Stage 2 Departure Time Distributions for the Watts Bar EPZ Figure 6-2 ETE Population Growth Sensitivity Analysis Figure 6-3 Comparison of Traffic Flows Before and After Road Closure Scenario Figure 6-4 Time Distribution of Vehicles on the Network (Full 10-Mile EPZ, Winter Weekday, Normal Weather)Figure 6-5 Comparison of Vehicle Mobilization and Departure Rates (Total Vehicles 12,326)Appendices A Geographical Boundaries of ERPAs B Transient and Special Facility Population Data C Population Data Maps D Roadway Network Map and Data Table E Telephone Survey of EPZ Residents (Summary Results and Survey Instrument)

F Maps of Average Speed by Hour on Watts Bar Road Network (Winter Day, Normal Weather, Full EPZ)Table of Contents 1-5 1-6 1-7 4-4 5-6 5-7 6-3 6-15 6-16 6-18 6-19 Watts Bw -ETE -VER5.docv iv ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates Executive Summary This report documents the methodology and data compiled for the Evacuation Time Estimate (ETE) study prepared by ARCADIS for the Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant (WBN)located in Rhea County, Tennessee, near the cities of Spring City and Decatur. The ETE study reflects the current definition of the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ), which is the region within a nominal 10-mile distance of WBN. The previous study of ETEs for WBN was performed in 2001. The present study was performed using population data from the 2010 census.PTV Vision software was used to perform evacuation modeling for different scenarios.

The PTV Vision traffic simulation software package includes VISUM (macroscopic traffic simulation) and VISSIM (microscopic traffic simulation).

VISUM is a comprehensive, flexible software system for transportation planning, travel demand modeling, and network data management.

VISSIM is capable of performing detailed microscopic simulation of traffic and can model any type of traffic signal control and geometric configuration.

The road network used in the evacuation simulations consists of designated evacuation routes plus any additional roadways needed to accurately simulate conditions during an evacuation.

Roadway capacities were determined using NAVTEQTm digital data, updated by ARCADIS based on actual road and intersection data collected in the field in 2012.Evacuees were generally assumed to proceed out of the EPZ via recommended evacuation routes and to make their way to designated reception centers after leaving the EPZ.The EPZ for WBN includes parts of three counties in Tennessee (Rhea, Meigs, and McMinn). The resident population of the Watts Bar EPZ is estimated at 22,569 permanent residents.

Based on housing data from the 2010 U.S. Census, there are 789 seasonal housing units in the EPZ, with an estimated 1,645 seasonal (summer) residents.

The 2010 U.S. Census data at block level was used to determine population in each EPZ subarea.The transient population, which includes larger workplaces, recreational facilities, and motels, was estimated at 2,697 persons for both a winter and summer weekday. The special facilities population, including assisted living, nursing homes, and hospitals, was estimated at 545 persons for weekday scenarios.

The estimated population of schools and daycare centers for a winter weekday is 4,682, including students and staff. These population estimates include intrinsic double-counting, as some persons in the transient and special facility populations are also included in the permanent and seasonal resident counts. Thus, evacuation times using these population figures are considered conservative.

Watt Br -ETE -VER5 do..v ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates Vehicle demand for the resident population was developed based on estimated vehicle occupancy, using data obtained from a telephone survey of EPZ residents.

The vehicle occupancy factor estimated from survey responses is 2.04 persons per vehicle, which represents 1.46 vehicles per household.

For the 2001 study, vehicle occupancy was 2.2 persons per vehicle.Vehicle demand for the transient population was estimated using vehicle occupancy factors ranging from 1.0 person per vehicle for the workforce population up to 3.0 persons per vehicle for some recreational areas. Vehicle demand for the school population was based on bus occupancy of 55 students.

For nursing homes, vehicle occupancy is 20 persons per bus or van for residents, and two persons per ambulance for non-ambulatory patients.

For nights and weekends, all facility staff would accompany patients; during weekdays, one vehicle per person was assigned for additional staff.Total vehicle demand for all population categories ranges from 11,636 (winter weeknight) to 13,252 (summer weekday).Vehicle demand was also assigned to account for the potential "shadow evacuation" of the population residing immediately outside the EPZ, to a distance of 15 miles. The permanent resident population within this region is 32,662. It was assumed that 20 percent of the population in this region would evacuate.

The occupancy factor for EPZ residents (2.04 persons per vehicle) was applied to estimate vehicle demand for this population.

Shadow evacuees residing outside the EPZ add vehicle demand of 3,202 vehicles.Evacuation times were estimated for evacuation of the entire EPZ for winter weekday (daytime and evening), winter weekend day, summer weekday (daytime and evening), and summer weekend day cases under fair weather conditions.

The weekday daytime cases were also evaluated for adverse weather conditions (snow and rain, respectively, for winter and summer). Evacuation times were also estimated for one Special Event, a summer weekend fair that takes place in Decatur, Tennessee.

A "staged evacuation" scenario was also evaluated for the winter daytime case. Under this scenario, only the population within the 2-mile zones closest to WBN would evacuate initially; evacuation of surrounding zones would be initiated after most traffic from the 2-mile zones has cleared. The purpose of this scenario is to assess the potential reduction in evacuation times that might be achieved for the population at greatest risk.vi Wa BM -ETE -VERR5 .d 0 ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates Simulations were also performed to assess the potential impact of population growth on predicted evacuation times. This sensitivity analysis was used to define a threshold population figure that would trigger another ETE update study.ETEs for vehicles to depart from the 2-mile zone, 5-mile zone, and for the full 10-mile EPZ are summarized in Table E-1. The 90 percent evacuation times for normal weather scenarios are under 4 hours4.62963e-5 days 0.00111 hours 6.613757e-6 weeks 1.522e-6 months . Adverse weather scenarios typically add 30 minutes to the 100% evacuation time with a maximum ETE slightly less than 5 hours5.787037e-5 days 0.00139 hours 8.267196e-6 weeks 1.9025e-6 months . The time to evacuate 90 percent of the inner 2-mile zone by itself is 90 minutes shorter than the time to evacuate 90 percent of the full EPZ. Results for "keyhole" evacuation scenarios (inner 2-mile zone plus downwind zones to 10 miles) indicate that Zone C-8, which includes the City of Decatur, takes the longest time to evacuate.

Most traffic congestion in the EPZ is predicted for the cities of Decatur and Spring City.Table E-1 Evacuation Time Estimate Summary for Watts Bar EPZ Scenario:

1) ) (4) [ (0 I (1 I 1) ( vs)Weather: Normal Adverse Normal Normal Normal Adverse Normal Normal 90 Percent Evacuation of Affected Areas (hours:minutes) 2-MIle 1:35 1:45 1:35 1:35 1:30 1:40 1:30 1:30 Zone 5-MIle 2:30 2:40 2:20 2:20 2:30 2:45 2:20 2:20 Zone 10-Mile 3:00 3:10 2:30 2:30 3:00 3:25 2:25 2:25 EPZ I I I 100 Percent Evacuation of Affected Areas (hours:minutes) 2-Mile 3:15 3:25 3:10 3:10 3:15 3:30 3:10 3:10 Zone 5-Mile 3:55 4:05 3:30 3:30 3:55 4:20 3:30 3:30 Zone 10-Mile 4:15 4:25 4:10 4:10 4:15 4:55 4:10 4:10 EPZ I I II Watts Bat -EME -VERz5.dO vii ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates 1. Introduction

1.1 General

Evacuation time studies analyze the manner in which the population within the Plume Exposure Pathway Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) surrounding a nuclear power plant site would evacuate during a radiological emergency.

Evacuation time studies provide licensees and state and local governments with site-specific information helpful for protective action decision-making.

The studies estimate the time necessary to evacuate the EPZ for a range of evacuation scenarios.

Analysis of the evacuation simulation results also identifies locations where traffic management and control measures can facilitate the evacuation, and may identify unique evacuation constraints or conditions.

Estimates of the time required to evacuate from areas around nuclear power plant sites are required for all operating plants in the United States. Federal guidance has been prepared to outline the format and content of these evacuation time estimates (ETEs)(NUREG-0654, Rev. 1, NUREG/CR-4831,2 and NUREG/CR-70023).

ETE studies were last updated for the Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant (WBN) Plume Exposure Pathway EPZ in 2001.4 The guidance presented in NUREG/CR-7002 indicates that the ETEs should be updated as local conditions change, but at least once each decade, following release of the federal census. The current update study was 1 Criteria for Preparation and Evaluation of Radiological Emergency Response Plans and Preparedness in Support of Nuclear Power Plants, NUREG-0654, FEMA-REP-1, Rev. 1, U.S.Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Federal Emergency Management Agency, November 1980.2 State of the Art in Evacuation Time Estimate Studies for Nuclear Power Plants, NUREG/CR-4831, T. E. Urbanik and J. D. Jamison, Pacific Northwest Laboratory, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, March 1992.3 Criteria for Development of Evacuation Time Estimate Studies, NUREG/CR-7002, J. Jones and F. Walton, Sandia National Laboratories, and B. Wolshon, Louisiana State University, November 2011.4 Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant, Annex H-Evacuation, IVA, March 2010.Waft Bar -ETE -VER5.do=x 1-1 ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates prompted by the issuance of revised ETE guidance (CR-7002) and the availability of population data from the 2010 U.S. Census. Census data indicate that the population residing within the EPZ for WBN increased by 1,617 between 2000 and 2010, which represents an 8 percent population increase. (Population data are discussed further in Section 1.4.)The ETEs have been developed using current population, local roadway network characteristics, and the PTV Vision traffic simulation software package to perform evacuation modeling for various scenarios.

PTV Vision includes the VISSIM (microscopic traffic simulation) and VISUM (macroscopic traffic simulation) models.Evacuation times have been estimated for various areas, times, and weather conditions, as outlined in CR-7002. These evacuation times represent the times required for completing the following actions:* Public notification" Preparation and mobilization

Actual movement out of the EPZ (i.e., on-road travel time, including delays associated with vehicle queuing)1.2 Site Location and Emergency Planning Zone This report describes the analyses undertaken, and the results obtained, in a study to update the existing ETEs for WBN. The emergency response plan is designed to protect the health and safety of the public in the event that an evacuation is ordered as a protective action in response to an accident at WBN.WBN is located in Rhea County, Tennessee, along the west side of the Tennessee River, approximately 15 miles northeast of the City of Athens. The City of Decatur is approximately 6 miles south and the City of Spring City is approximately 7 miles northwest of WBN. The site location is shown on Figure 1-1. The plume exposure pathway EPZ is the geographic area surrounding a nuclear power plant within which the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) requires advance planning for evacuation or other short-term protective actions in the event of a radiological emergency.

The Watts Bar EPZ consists of the area within approximately a 10-mile radius of WBN, as shown on Figure 1-2. The EPZ includes portions of three Tennessee counties (Rhea, Meigs, and McMinn).Watts Sa -ETE -VER5.dSoM 1-2 ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates The Watts Bar EPZ is subdivided into a total of 32 sectors or subareas, or Emergency Response Protection Areas (ERPAs). These ERPAs are the basic units for which protective action recommendations are issued. Subarea boundaries often follow geographic or political (township) boundaries, and reflect distance and direction from WBN. The distance ranges of concern are 0 to 2 miles, 2 to 5 miles, and greater than 5 miles. EPZ and ERPA boundaries are shown on Figure 1-1. The western side of the EPZ, accounting for almost half of the total EPZ area, is in Rhea County. The 13 ERPAs in the middle of the EPZ are in Meigs County and three ERPAs are in McMinn County. Appendix A contains boundary descriptions of the ERPAs.A listing of the 2010 permanent resident population by ERPA within the Watts Bar EPZ is shown on Figure 1-3 (a sector diagram is provided in Appendix C). Table 1-1 compares the EPZ population from the 2010 and the 2000 census. The population residing in the EPZ grew by 1,617 between 2000 and 2010, an increase of 8 percent.ERPAs D-1 and C-4 grew by more than 100 percent and ERPAs C-2, C-7, D-4, D-5, A-5, C-3, C-6, D-6, D-7, D-8, and D-9 grew by 10 percent or more. ERPAs A-i, A-3, A-4, B-3, B-5, and D-3 declined by more than 10 percent. Almost 10 percent of the EPZs'22,569 residents are located in ERPA A-7, which includes parts of Spring City.Between 2000 and 2010, the population of 0 to 2 miles increased by 6 percent and of 2 to 5 miles increased by 5 percent. Finally, ERPAs A-3, B-2, C-8, A-6, A-7, C-3, D-7, and D-8 have more than 1,000 residents between 2000 and 2010.United States Highway 27 (U.S. Highway 27) and State Highways 30, 58, 68, and 305 are major evacuation roadways in the EPZ. The Tennessee River crosses the EPZ from the northeast to the southwest.

Interstate 75 (1-75) runs north and south outside the eastern limits of the EPZ.NRC guidance also requires consideration of potential "shadow evacuation" of the population residing immediately outside the EPZ, to a distance of 15 miles. The permanent resident population within this region is 32,662. It was assumed (based on NRC guidance in CR-7002) that 20 percent of the population in this region would evacuate.

The occupancy factor for EPZ residents (2.04 persons per vehicle) was applied to estimate vehicle demand for this population.

Shadow evacuees residing outside the EPZ add vehicle demand of 3,202 vehicles.1.3 Designated Reception Centers The Watts Bar emergency response evacuation plan directs residents of communities within the EPZ to evacuate to specified reception centers. If evacuation is initiated Waft B" -ETE -VER5,do1 1-3 ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates while schools are in session, students will be transported directly to designated host schools, and families are instructed to meet up with the students at those locations.

The designated reception centers for ERPAs within the Watts Bar EPZ are Central High School, Roane State Community College, Cumberland County High School, and Soddy-Daisy High School. The preferred reception center for each ERPA is listed in Table 1-2. (Some ERPAs may evacuate differently, depending upon the prevailing wind direction.)

The roadway network used to develop ETEs includes the major roadways recommended to the public as evacuation routes from individual communities to designated reception centers. The roadway network is designed to utilize all available major roadways, with traffic flow directed radially outward from WBN toward the EPZ boundaries.

The roadway network is described in detail in Section 4.1.4 Overview of Changes from Previous ETE Study The changes in residential population within the EPZ are summarized in Table 1-1.The revised NRC guidance and newly acquired data led to a number of other changes in the ETE methodology and assumptions.

Table 1-3 provides a summary comparing the main features and assumptions of the current study to the 2001 ETE study. The telephone survey of EPZ residents provides a new basis for estimating vehicle occupancy and departure times, while new NRC guidance has specified different assumptions regarding background and "shadow" traffic. The ETE methodology and assumptions for the current study are discussed in greater detail in subsequent sections of this report.The increase in EPZ population, revised vehicle occupancy for residents (2.04 persons per vehicle, based on survey responses), revised departure times for schools and special facilities (no "early warning"), and revised departure time curves for residents (based on survey responses and estimated time for warning diffusion) are expected to have the greatest influence on estimated evacuation times. The "shadow evacuation" adds vehicle demand of 3,202 vehicles in the area immediately outside the EPZ. One special event scenario was added. Each of these issues is discussed in more detail in following sections of this report.Watts Barw ETE -VER5 do1 1-4 AM OW'4-As p NmHmeW 9MOMM'Ow)Legend Plant Location-EPZ Sectors State Boundary o20 40 Miles pIldin Ma~n M a a n t 3"' i 5 ROANE BLEDsOE(COUNTY/... n r ___________

B--COUNTY Slb :-3"1 I Plant Location/ Epz Sectors....' ; ' .. :County Boundary... ARCADIS X OUN" A F,-1RE A emp Roane County i a $Legend I Watts Bar Nuclear Plant J EPZ Sector".] County Boundary I,-Rhea County A'[` 2010 4-1 1ý2 -,-222 A-3 ..5Z A-6 -10S C-S i 1,233 C-4 172 C-S 790 N[04101[2010 C-7 535 63 ,21 C-I " 1,294 6.4..22 C-9 79.A-S0 70..- ..40(4- 43 C-11 944 23 D-2 "S99 0-3 23 2 A 134 8-4 60 0- 641 D-64 4 744 c-i S~3 D-7 1,27C D-8 1448 OF r 2010 Population 1-6-7-14-15-23 1 24-33 34 -43 44I .- 57 S58 -76 I 77 -101 Nk" 1C, 0 2 4 Miles County Adieu ARCADIS FIGURE 1-3 I2010 PERMANENT RESIDENT IPOPULATION BYEPZ AREA-ioow ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates Table 1-1 Permanent Resident Population in the Watts Bar EPZ u to z m 1 29 1 2 1 -93%B-1 238 235 -1%C-1 145 153 6%D-1 52 104 100%2 to 5 miles A-2 399 407 2%A-3 1,384 1,221 -12%B-2 1,194 1,153 -3%B-4 654 640 -2%C-2 662 827 25%C-4 84 172 105%C-5 751 790 5%C-7 477 535 12%C-8 1,213 1,294 7%D-2 948 999 5%D-4 97 134 38%D-5 491 641 31%5 to 10 miles A-4 333 222 -33%A-5 621 707 14%A-6 1,413 1,465 4%A-7 2,270 2,245 -1%B-3 307 275 -10%B-5 64 48 -25%C-3 1,028 1,233 20%C-6 738 881 19%C-9 801 793 -1%C-10 420 406 -3%C-11 899 944 5%D-3 30 27 -10%D-6 651 744 14%D-7 959 1,270 32%D-8 1,114 1,448 30%D-9 486 554 14%Watts Bar EPZ Total 20,952 22,569 8%Sources: a) 2000 census data (block level)b) 2010 census data (block level)Waft Bw -ETE -VER5.do1 1-8 ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates Table 1-2 Designated Reception Centers for Evacuation Al, A2, A3, A5, A6, B1, B2, B3, B4, B5 Roane State Community College A4, A7 Cumberland County High School C1, 02, 03,04, C5, C6, C7, C8, C9, 010,011 Central High School Dl, D2, D3, D4, D5, D6, D7, 08, D9 Soddy-Daisy High School Waft Bar- ETE -VER5 docc 1-9 ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates Table 1-3 ETE Comparison Permanent residents-Total population

-27,215 -22,569-Vehicle occupancy

-2.2 -2.04 (persons per vehicle)Transit dependent-Population estimate -Residents need to ride Number of buses with neighbors/friends or Number of ambulances call local emergency

-No ambulances officials for assistance Transient facilities

-Estimated population

-11,125 -2,697-Vehicle demand -Not explicitly provided in -1,956-Adjust for double-count this report -Adjust for retail facilities

-No adjustment Special facilities (Winter Weekday)-Estimated population

-Not explicitly provided in -545-Number of buses, vans this report -22 buses/vans/

-Ambulance, other -Assumed enough ambulances resources available Schools (Winter Weekday)-Student population

-4,263 (daycare included)

-4,682 (daycare included)-Number of buses -119 buses/van (some for -74 buses/vans emergency use only)Background traffic None Average traffic by time of day Shadow evacuation None 20 percent of resident (assumed basis) population outside designated zones Special event(s) None Meigs County Fair Scenarios

-Not explicitly provided in -Weekday (winter, this report summer)-Weeknight (winter, summer)-Weekend (winter, summer)-Adverse weather weekday only-Staged evacuation (weekday)Adverse weather 30% additional time was Snow for winter, rain for added summer Evacuation model name and Not Stated PTV Vision VISUM 11.5, version VISSIM 5.3 Departure times -Source not stated -Warning based on literature Watt Ba -ETE -VER5.docx 1-10 ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates Table 1-3 ETE Comparison

-Residential based on survey-Transient based on survey-Specials notified with public Evacuation times Estimates for 100 percent Estimates provided for 90 1 1_ and 100 percent WIM B- ET- -VER51.d11 1-11 ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates 2. Methodology and Assumptions

2.1 Sources

of Data and General Assumptions The following data sources were reviewed and assumptions made to develop the appropriate population and roadway databases used for the evacuation analysis: " Population estimates for permanent residents were developed from 2010 U.S.Census Bureau data.* Population estimates for seasonal residents were developed from 2010 U.S.Census Bureau data on housing units. Census data identify the number of seasonal housing units (vacant housing units for "seasonal or occasional use") at different geographic levels (e.g., by township, census tract, block group, block). A conservative estimate of seasonal population was developed by assigning 3 persons and 2 vehicles per seasonal housing unit." Population estimates for major employers were developed from the ESRI list and the facility list from the 2001 study report. ARCADIS conducted intemet searches and obtained information from the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA), Tennessee Emergency Management Agency (TEMA), and counties to estimate facility employment and staffing levels for various scenarios.

Only facilities with potential staffing level of at least 50 persons per work shift were pursued." Information relating to hotels, motels, and recreational facilities was obtained from tourism websites and the 2001 study report. For parks, visitation information was obtained from counties." Current population estimates for schools were obtained primarily from county emergency response agencies.* Lists of hospitals, rest homes, and incarceration facilities were obtained from each county emergency management agency.* The staffing levels at WBN reflect estimated peak personnel on site and were provided by TVA.Waft Ber -ETE -VERSAd=c2 2-1 ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates Initial estimates of roadway characteristics were obtained from the NAVTEQ database.

Roadway geometric and operational data were compiled based on field surveys performed by ARCADIS in 2012." Average traffic volumes by time of day for weekdays and weekends for designated evacuation routes were obtained from state and county transportation agencies.These data were used to assign background traffic volumes for the roadway network. It was assumed that access control would be established within 2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months following public notice to evacuate.* Preparation and mobilization times for the permanent resident population were developed based on the results of a telephone survey (Appendix E), combined with published time estimates for warning diffusion.

The survey provided estimates of the time to depart from home following notification, and commuting times for household members who would return from work before departing.

Departure times for transient facilities were estimated assuming relatively prompt evacuation of most workplaces and recreational facilities after notification is received.

The distribution of departure times also reflects information gathered from the telephone survey of EPZ residents, as discussed in Section 3.* The ETEs represent the time required to evacuate the Watts Bar EPZ and designated analysis areas and include the time required for initial notification.

ETEs are presented for 90 percent and 100 percent of evacuating vehicles.

It is assumed that all persons within the EPZ area will evacuate.

For the 100 percent evacuation time, evacuation of the EPZ will be considered complete after all evacuating vehicles are outside of the EPZ or analysis area.* The general public will evacuate using designated evacuation routes and will proceed to the reception centers listed in Table 1-2 after leaving the EPZ. When schools are in session, children attending school will be transported directly to designated host schools." It is assumed that existing lane utilization will prevail during the course of the evacuation.

Traffic control signals will be overridden or converted to flashing mode, as necessary, to give preference to flow on all major outbound roadways.

It is also assumed that state and municipal personnel will restrict unauthorized access into the EPZ, consistent with existing traffic management plans.Waft BNr- ETM -VER5.d=2-2 ARCADIS Waits Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates The evacuation analysis cases are described in Section 2.3 and represent a range of conditions, in accordance with guidance presented in CR-7002. These cases have been chosen to provide information for an appropriate range of conditions (i.e., low, typical, and high population; fair and adverse weather) to guide the protective action decision-making process.* Vehicle occupancy rates used for the various population categories are as follows:-Permanent residents:

2.04 persons per vehicle, based on telephone survey results-Major places of employment:

1 vehicle per employee-Motels: 1 vehicle (1 to 2 persons) per occupied room-Recreational areas: 1 vehicle (3 persons) per campsite;

1.5 persons

per vehicle at shopping malls, visitor centers, and museums-Schools: 55 students and 3 staff per bus; 1 vehicle per additional staff person-Hospitals/nursing homes/correctional facilities:

2 persons per ambulance/medical van for non-ambulatory patients and 20 persons per bus or van for ambulatory residents* The transport-dependent population will be evacuated by bus or ambulance through efforts coordinated by state and municipal emergency preparedness officials.

Adverse weather refers to moderate to heavy rainstorms for summer conditions, and a moderate snowstorm for winter conditions.

2.2 Summary

of Methodology for Traffic Simulation The ETEs developed for the Watts Bar EPZ are based upon a time distribution of evacuation events as opposed to a summation of sequential events. This methodology assumes that the various time components in an evacuation (e.g., the time associated with preparation, mobilization) overlap and occur within certain time ranges. The time distribution approach is based upon assumptions consistent with the NRC guidance of CR-7002.Trip generation times are used to develop vehicle loading curves for different population types within the permanent, transient, and special facility populations.

A trip generation time consists of two main components:

warning diffusion time and mobilization time. Warning diffusion time is the time it takes for people to receive an emergency notification.

The type of warning systems employed in the EPZ, such as an emergency alert system (EAS), sirens, and tone alert radios (TARs), affects the Watt Bar -ETE -VER5.do.2-3 ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates distribution of warning times. Availability of more warning systems leads to faster warning diffusion to the public.Mobilization time is the time between the receipt of notification and when individuals leave for evacuation.

Mobilization time depends on the type of population and activity.Warning diffusion time and mobilization time distributions are used to develop composite loading distribution or trip generation curves for different population segments.

Trip generation times for transit-dependent facilities, special facilities, and schools were developed separately from those for the general public.2.3 Conditions Modeled Pursuant to the guidance in CR-7002 and NUREG-0654, Rev. 1, ETEs have been prepared for a range of temporal, seasonal, and weather conditions.

Estimates have been prepared for weekday, weeknight, and weekend scenarios during winter and summer. All scenarios are simulated with fair weather conditions; weekday scenarios are also simulated assuming adverse weather. Fair weather refers to conditions where roadways are clear and dry and visibility is not impaired.

Adverse weather during summer periods is defined as a rainstorm condition where visibility is impaired and roadway capacities and speeds are reduced by 10 percent and 15 percent, respectively.

Adverse weather during winter periods is defined as a snowstorm condition where roadway capacities and speeds are reduced by 15 percent and 35 percent, respectively.

The various population components that have been incorporated in the evacuation scenarios are summarized below.2.3.1 Weekday This situation represents a typical weekday period with the workforce at a full daytime level. During winter, schools are in session. Vehicle demand estimates for weekday scenarios reflect the following conditions:

Most permanent residents within the EPZ will evacuate from their places of residence.

Major work places are fully staffed at typical daytime levels.Watts Bar -ETE -VERSdoA2 2-4 ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates* WBN employment is at an estimated peak daytime level, representative of operation during outage conditions.

Schools and daycares are at current enrollment.

Hospitals and nursing homes are at current enrollment or typical occupancy.

Motel facilities are occupied at peak (winter or summer) levels.* Recreational facilities are at winter or summer weekday levels.2.3.2 Weeknight This situation reflects a typical night period when most permanent residents are home and the workforce is at evening shift level. Assumptions of the population levels for this condition include the following:

Permanent residents within the EPZ will evacuate from their places of residence.

Major work places are at typical evening levels.* WBN employment is at an estimated peak nighttime level.* Day schools and daycares are closed." Hospitals and nursing homes are at current enrollment or typical occupancy, and staffing is at typical nighttime levels.* Motel facilities are occupied at (winter or summer) weekday levels." Recreational facilities are at typical (winter or summer) evening levels.2.3.3 Weekend The weekend scenario represents a daytime period when most residents are at home and major work places are at typical weekend levels. Assumptions of the population levels for this condition include the following:

WaftS Ba- ETE -VER5.do2 2-5 ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates" Residents within the EPZ will evacuate from their places of residence." Major work places are at typical weekend levels.* Day schools and daycares are closed.* Hospitals and nursing homes are occupied and staffed at weekend levels.* Motel facilities are occupied at weekend (winter or summer) levels.* Recreational facilities are at (winter or summer) weekend levels.Watts Bar -ETE -VER5.docx 2-6 ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates 3. Population and Vehicle Demand Evaluation The development of vehicle demand estimates for the Watts Bar EPZ consisted of two primary steps. The first step was the determination of the number and distribution of the population to be evacuated.

The second step was the determination of the appropriate number of vehicles for each of the population categories.

Federal guidance (CR-7002) indicates that three population categories should be considered:

permanent residents, transients, and persons in schools and special facilities (such as medical facilities/nursing homes and daycare facilities).

The methodology used to develop the total population and vehicle demand estimates within the Watts Bar EPZ incorporates intrinsic double-counting.

For example, a portion of the identified employees and visitors to recreational areas are also permanent residents within the EPZ. In addition, school children are counted in the resident population, but are also counted in the special facility population.

While population and vehicle demand estimates incorporate some adjustments for double-counting, the estimates are considered to be conservative (i.e., they overestimate actual population and vehicle levels that may be in the area at any given time). Population and vehicle demand estimates for each of the population categories are summarized below.3.1 Permanent Residents Permanent residents are those persons identified by the census as having a permanent residence within the EPZ. The 2010 U.S. Census population data for census tracts, block groups, and blocks were used to determine the permanent resident population within the EPZ and within each municipality and ERPA. The allocation of the resident population to entry nodes on the roadway network was based on detailed census block maps.An estimated 22,569 persons reside permanently within the Watts Bar EPZ. Table 3-1 presents the resident population and vehicle demand by ERPA.3.1.1 Auto-Owning Permanent Population Vehicle demand associated with the permanent resident population was estimated based on telephone survey responses (Appendix E). The estimated occupancy factor is 2.04 persons per vehicle, which corresponds to 1.46 vehicles per household.

Total vehicle demand for EPZ residents for winter day scenarios is 9,925.Waýts Ba -ETE -VER; d=-3-1 ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates For the 2010 ETE study, evacuation times were determined for vehicle demand assumption of one vehicle per household, or 2.04 persons per vehicle, for permanent residents during a weekday.3.1.2 Transport-Dependent Permanent Population Emergency response plans specify that the transport-dependent population will receive transportation assistance.

The Rhea, Meigs, and McMinn County Radiological Emergency Response Plans include provisions for providing this assistance to a small number of individuals within the EPZ. NRC guidance (CR-7002) indicates that between 1.5 and 5 percent of residents may require transportation.

The number of transit-dependent residents identified within the Watts Bar EPZ was 20 with 3 vans designated to assist these individuals evacuate.3.2 Seasonal Residents The seasonal population category addresses those who reside in the EPZ on a temporary basis, particularly during the summer period. The 2010 U.S. Census of Population and Housing reports the number of vacant households classified as "for seasonal or occasional use." Census data identified 789 such housing units in the Watts Bar EPZ. Population and vehicle demand were estimated assuming three residents and two vehicles per household.

3.3 Transient

Population The transient population segment includes persons in the workforce, hotels/motels, and recreational areas. Regional maps and mapping software were used to determine facility locations and assign entry nodes. Significant employers within the EPZ were identified using ESRI Business Analyst Online (BAO). BAO is a web-based analytical and mapping tool that facilitates location-specific queries about business and demographic data. Data available on BAO includes information on business location and number of employees.

ESRI extracts business data from a comprehensive list of businesses (more than 12 million U.S. businesses) licensed from Infogroup.

ARCADIS used BAO to search for all employers with 50 or more employees located within a 10-mile radius of WBN. CR-7002 recommends consideration of "large employers" with 50 or more employees on a single shift.The list from BAO was screened to eliminate businesses where workers do not remain on site (e.g., transportation and trucking companies, construction, real estate agents, Watts Bar -ETE -VERSdoA=3-2 ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates home health care). Employment at schools and special facilities (e.g., hospitals, nursing homes) is generally tracked as part of the special facilities database.

The reduced list was then reviewed to exclude facilities located outside the EPZ, and to determine the ERPA for those located in the EPZ. The new list of employers was compared to the list from the 2010 study and the information provided by the county Emergency Management Agencies.Telephone calls were made to selected large employers to verify employment numbers and to estimate staffing levels during weekday, weeknight, and weekend periods.Workforce numbers for WBN were provided by TVA and reflect the peak workforce during outage conditions.

Numbers of units and campsites for motels and recreational areas were obtained from the TripAdvisor website and state and county tourism websites.

Seasonal occupancy was estimated based on capacity figures (e.g., number of campsites) and a telephone survey of selected facilities.

County agencies also provided visitation numbers for parks and campgrounds.

For purposes of estimating the total number of vehicles associated with the transient population segment, an occupancy factor of 1.0 employee per vehicle was used for most work places. For the hotel/motel and recreational populations, 1.0 vehicle (1.5 persons) per hotel/motel unit was assumed. For parks and campgrounds, 1.0 vehicle (3 persons) per campsite was assumed. Daytime park visitation numbers were generally obtained as numbers of vehicles, and an occupancy factor of 1.5 persons per vehicle was assumed. Campgrounds were assumed to be fully occupied during summer. Motels were assumed to be fully occupied for all scenarios.

Vehicle demand for selected recreational facilities was reduced in consideration of double-counting.

These facilities include recreational clubs and other facilities that would be used predominantly by those residing within 10 to 20 miles. An adjustment factor of 0.75 was applied, assuming that (a) roughly half of visitors reside in the EPZ and (b) roughly half of EPZ residents would return home before evacuating.

Table 3-2 presents a summary of the transient population by ERPA for each scenario.The transient population and associated vehicle demand are greatest for summer weekday and summer weekend scenarios.

Recreational facilities are located in ERPAs A-3, A-5, BA, and C-9, along the Watts Bar Lake. ERPA C-9 has the highest population and vehicle demand from transient facilities, reflecting a combination of employers, motels, and retail and recreational facilities.

Population data and vehicle Wafr Br -ETE -VER5.doc3 3-3 ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates demand estimates for the transient population segment, including the workforce, hotels and motels, and recreational areas, are presented by facility in Appendix B.3.4 Special Facilities Population The special facility population segment includes persons in schools, hospitals, nursing homes, and correctional facilities who will require transportation assistance during an evacuation.

Most school facilities are located in the ERPAs with large residential populations.

The special facilities population is summarized by ERPA in Table 3-3;data by facility is provided in Appendix B.3.4.1 Medical, Nursing Care, and Correctional Facilities The EPZ has one detention center, one retirement resort, two nursing home facilities, and one medical center. Vehicle occupancy for nursing home patients is two non-ambulatory patients and one staff per ambulance, 20 residents or patients plus 3 staff per vehicle (bus or van) for ambulatory patients, plus one vehicle per staff person who does not evacuate with patients.3.4.2 Schools and Daycare Seven schools and seven pre-school/daycare facilities have been identified within the Watts Bar EPZ, with a total population of 4,682 students.

None of the identified schools is residential; therefore, students are only present on weekdays during the school year.Vehicle occupancy for public schools is based on 58 persons (55 students, 3 staff) per bus, plus one vehicle per additional school staff.The seven licensed childcare (large daycare) facilities have an estimated daytime population of 215 students and staff. Those facilities were identified from an internet listing of licensed childcare establishments.

The population estimates represent the licensed capacity of each facility.

Smaller home-based daycare facilities (capacity 10 or less) were not tabulated; those facilities contribute little vehicle demand beyond that assigned to EPZ residents.

3.5 Emergency

Response Planning Area Population Totals Population and vehicle demand totals for each ERPA are summarized in Table 3-4.The totals listed in the table represent the peak number of people to be evacuated for each analysis case, which is discussed in Section 6 of this report.BWaf,,.- EM -VER,5d, 3-4 0 ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates Vehicle demand is highest for the summer weekday scenario.

Vehicle demand for the highest scenario is 14 percent higher than the lowest (winter weeknight) scenario.

The vehicle demand listed in Tables 3-2, 3-3, and 3-4 reflects the data used as input for the ETE traffic simulations.

Waft Bw -ETE -VER5. d 3-5 ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates Table 3-1 Resident Population and Vehicle Demand by EPZ Subarea A-1 B-1 C-1 D-1 0 to 2 miles 0 to 2 miles 0 to 2 miles 0 to 2 miles z 407 1,221 222 1 200 599 I fl9 2 543 1,363 1 295 698 11n A-2 2 to 5 miles 707 347 1,069 600 A-3 2 to 5 miles 1,465 718 1,661 855 B-2 2 to 5 miles 2,245 1,100 2,293 1,134 B-4 2 to 5 miles 235 115 266 137 C-2 2 to 5 miles 1,153 565 1,178 583 C-4 2 to 5 miles 275 135 279 138 C-7 2 to 5 miles 640 314 1,129 656 C-8 2 to 5 miles 48 24 48 24 D-2 2 to 5 miles 153 75 157 78 D-4 2 to 5 miles 827 405 837 412 D-5 2 to 5 miles 1,233 604 1,241 610 A-4 5 to 10 miles 172 84 178 88 A-5 5 to 10 miles 790 387 794 390 A-6 5 to 10 miles 881 432 885 435 A-7 5 to 10 miles 535 262 537 263 B-3 5 to 10 miles 1,294 634 1,298 637 B-5 5 to 10 miles 793 389 872 444 C-3 5 to 10 miles 406 199 412 203 C-5 5 to 10 miles 944 463 948 466 C-6 5 to 10 miles 104 51 108 54 C-9 5 to 10 miles 999 490 1,043 521 C-10 5 to 10 miles 27 13 27 13 C- 1 5 to 10 miles 134 66 134 66 D-3 5 to 10 miles 641 314 643 315-6 5 tol0 miles 744 365 746 366 D-7 5 to 10 miles 1,270 623 1,272 624 D-8 5 to 10 miles 1,448 710 1,452 713 D-9 5 to 10 miles 554 272 575 287 EPZ total 22,569 11,065 24,214 12,216 Watts B. -ETE -VER5.do3 3-6 f2 ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates Table 3-2 Transient Population and Vehicle Demand in the Watts Bar EPZ A-1 A-2 A-3 A-4 A-5 A-6 A-7 B-I B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 C-I C-2 C-3 C-4 C-5 C-6 C-7 C-8 C-9 C-1 0 C-1I 0 0 345 0 341 0 90 0 0 0 456 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 180 475 125 0 0 0 45 0 40 0 40 0 0 0 343 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 100 0 0 0 0 345 0 341 0 40 0 0 0 456 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 100 10 0 0 0 345 0 341 0 90 0 0 0 456 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 180 475 125 0 0 0 45 0 40 0 40 0 0 0 343 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 100 0 0 0 0 345 0 341 0 40 0 0 0 456 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 100 10 0 0 0 138 0 136 0 80 0 0 0 182 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 180 430 125 0 0 0 18 0 16 0 30 0 0 0 137 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 70 0 0 0 0 138 0 136 0 30 0 0 0 182 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 55 10 0 0 0 138 0 136 0 80 0 0 0 182 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 180 430 125 0 0 0 18 0 16 0 30 0 0 0 137 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 70 0 0 0 0 138 0 136 0 30 0 0 0 182 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 55 10 0 Wats R. -ETE -VE?.do=3 3-7 ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates D-1 D-2 D-3 D-4 D-5 D-6 D-7 D-8 D-9 685 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 230 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 215 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 685 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 230 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 215 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 685 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 230 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 215 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 685 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 230 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 215 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 EPZtotal 2,697 1 818 1 1,532 1 2,697 1 818 [ 1,532 1 1,956 521 j 791 1,956 1521 791 Watts B -ETE -VER5.docx 3-8 ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates Table 3-3 Population and Vehicle Demand for Schools and Special Facilities in the Watts Bar EPZ A-1 A-2 A-3 A-4 A-5 A-6 A-7 B-I B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 C-1 C-2 C-3 C-4 C-5 C-6 C-7 C-8 C-9 C-10 C-1I 0 0 0 643 0 70 633 0 47 0 0 0 0 496 0 0 0 406 188 1,094 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 35 153 0 0 0 01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 160 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 35 153 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 160 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 64 235 0 38 0 0 0 0 19 0 0 0 0 188 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 35 153 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 160 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 35 153 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 160 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 44 0 17 87 0 5 0 0 0 0 37 0 0 0 29 38 77 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 58 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 38 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 Wafts Ekr -ETE -VER5.doc=3-9 ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates D-1 D-2 D-3 D-4 D-5 D-6 D-7 D-8 D-9 0 0 0 0 0 1,530 0 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 54 0 120 n 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 ill 0 96 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 51 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 96 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 51 0 EPZ totalI 5,227 [ 418 j 418 1 718 j 418 j 418 j 541 j50 j 60 [ 220 j 5o j 80 Watts Ba -ETE -VERS d3-1 3-10 ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates Table 3-4 Summary of Population and Vehicle Demand in the Watts Bar EPZ A-1 A-2 A-3 A-4 A-5 A-6 A-7 B-I B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 C-1 C-2 C-3 C-4 C-5 C-6 C-7 C-8 C-9 C-1 0 C-1I 2 407 1,566 865 1,048 1,535 2,968 235 1,200 275 1,096 48 153 1,323 1,233 172 790 1,287 723 2,568 1,268 531 944 2 407 1,266 222 747 1,500 2,438 235 1,153 275 983 48 153 827 1,233 172 790 881 695 1,314 893 406 944 2 407 1,566 222 1,048 1,500 2,438 235 1,153 275 1,096 48 153 827 1,233 172 790 881 695 1,319 893 416 944 2 543 1,708 224 1,410 1,725 2,618 266 1,216 279 1,585 48 157 856 1,241 178 794 885 725 1,478 1,347 537 948 2 543 1,408 224 1,109 1,696 2,486 266 1,178 279 1,472 48 157 837 1,241 178 794 885 697 1,318 972 412 948 2 543 1,708 224 1,410 1,696 2,486 266 1,178 279 1,585 48 157 837 1,241 178 794 885 697 1,323 972 422 948 1 179 675 142 447 661 1,154 103 512 121 463 21 67 401 542 76 347 416 273 826 779 304 415 1 200 617 109 363 727 1,140 115 565 135 451 24 75 405 604 84 387 432 272 654 459 199 463 1 200 737 109 483 727 1,140 115 565 135 496 24 75 405 604 84 387 432 272 659 444 209 463 1 274 774 99 700 797 1,159 125 528 124 805 21 70 374 548 80 350 390 274 752 834 308 418 1 295 716 110 616 864 1,174 137 583 138 793 24 78 412 610 88 390 435 273 657 514 203 466 1 295 836 110 736 864 1,174 137 583 138 838 24 78 412 610 88 390 435 273 662 499 213 466 Waft B. -ETE -VERS.do3 3-11 ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates D-2 D-3 D-4 D-5 D-6 D-7 D-8 D-9 789 999 27 134 641 2,274 1,270 1,568 554 334 999 27 134 641 744 1,270 1,518 554 319 999 27 134 641 744 1,270 1,518 554 793 1,043 27 134 643 800 1,272 1,572 575 338 1,043 27 134 643 746 1,272 1,522 575 323 1,043 27 134 643 746 1,272 1,522 575 731 439 12 59 282 438 559 733 244 281 490 13 66 314 365 623 731 272 266 490 13 66 314 365 623 761 272 734 470 12 59 283 334 560 736 259 284 521 13 66 315 366 624 734 287 269 521 13 66 315 366 624 764 287 EPZtotal 30,493 23,805 24,519 27,629 26,164 11,636 11,936 13,252 12,787 i13,087 ]Population numbers reflect some double-counting between categories (e.g., residents, workforce, schools).Waft B. -ET -VERSdo31 3-12 ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates 4. Evacuation Roadway Network 4.1 Network Definition An evaluation of the roadway network likely to be used by departing vehicles was undertaken to estimate evacuation times for the Watts Bar EPZ. ARCADIS relied on several sources of information to define the evacuation roadway network:* Evacuation routes described in the existing county emergency response plans and public information calendars" Maps of highways and local roadways for the EPZ area* A field survey of the roadways in the Watts Bar EPZ The primary evacuation routings used in the modeling are indicated on Figure 4-1.4.2 Evacuation Route Descriptions The evacuation routings were developed to simulate travel out of the EPZ using available roadways.

The network relies primarily on the evacuation routings depicted in the public information brochure.

Descriptions of the primary evacuation routes for different geographic areas within the EPZ are outlined in Table 4-1.4.3 Characterizing the Evacuation Network Roadway characteristics, such as roadway class, number of lanes, lane and shoulder width, speed limit, lane configuration near intersections, and traffic control are key factors in determining how fast an evacuation can be completed.

These roadway attributes control roadway capacity, which in turn governs operating traffic conditions measured in terms of level of service (LOS). LOS is measured from A to F for roadway segments and intersections.

LOS A represents free-flow conditions, and LOS F represents force or breakdown flow conditions.

ARCADIS used NAVTEQTm roadway data with detailed information, including local streets, to build the evacuation roadway network for the study. NAVTEQ data were TM imported into geographic information system (GIS) software (ESRI ArcGIS ) for conducting field surveys to verify evacuation roadway segment attributes.

The information provided in the public outreach calendar for the site was used to highlight waftt b -eft -ve5 docx 4-1 ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates evacuation routes in GIS. ARCADIS has developed an integrated GIS-global positioning system tool that allows field personnel to record observations in an efficient and effective manner. The evacuation network, including traffic controls, was verified to a 15-mile radius from the plant and along designated routes to the reception centers.After the NAVTEQ data were verified through the field survey, the evacuation roadway network was transferred to the traffic simulation software VISUM for modeling different evacuation scenarios.

Having accurate traffic control information is important to accurately estimate evacuation times because intersections have the potential to create bottleneck points.During an evacuation scenario, intersections might be manually controlled by officials, operated with existing traffic signal timing plans, or adjusted according to changing vehicular demand. In general, the emergency response plans for Watts Bar call for signal override (i.e., signals set to flashing to give priority to outbound travel on designated evacuation routes). Traffic control information is coded as part of the evacuation network database.Background and pass-through traffic in the EPZ could account for a significant number of vehicles and could influence evacuation depending on the direction of travel. As recommended in CR-7002, average daily traffic (ADT) volumes, representative of typical background levels, were obtained from state and county transportation agencies.

During simulations, background traffic will be included during the initial 2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months of the evacuation scenario, up to the time when access control is established to prevent vehicles from entering the EPZ.A map of the evacuation network showing node numbers and links, as recommended by the latest guidance, is provided in Appendix D. Detailed attributes of each roadway segment, such as link number, number of lanes, speed limit, length, and roadway type, are also tabulated in Appendix D.waft bf -eta -ver4.d-4-2 I Q ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates Table 4-1 Watts Bar EPZ Primary Evacuation Routes A-I tu io z miies) 1urI IuL u Iuu tu u.0. e I, YU IrurI on u.0. Z rIrougIn ryOcKwooo 1o riarriman.

A-2, A-3 (2 to 5 miles) Take local roads to U.S. 27; go north on U.S. 27 through Rockwood to Harriman.A-5,A-6 (5 to 10 miles) Take local roads to U.S. 27; go north on U.S. 27 through Rockwood to Harriman.Take local roads to SR 68; go north on SR 68 into Cumberland County, through A-4, A-7 (5 to 10 miles) Homestead on SR 68/US 127 into Crossville; turn left at the intersection of SR 68/U.S .127 and SR 392 (Miller Avenue), go about 1.5 miles to the second traffic light (intersection of SR 392 and Stanley Street); turn left on Stanley Street to arrive at reception center.Take local roads to SR 58; go north on SR 58 into Kingston; turn left at the intersection of B-i (0 to 2 miles) U.S. 70 and SR 58 and go 7 miles to the reception center.Take local roads to SR 58; go north on SR 58 into Kingston; turn left at the intersection of B-2, B-4 (2 to 5 miles) U.S. 70 and SR 58 and go 7 miles to the reception center.Take local roads to SR 58; go north on SR 58 into Kingston; turn left at the intersection of B-3, B-5 (5 to 10 miles) U.S. 70 and SR 58 and go 7 miles to the reception center.Take local roads to SR 68; go east on SR 68 to SR 305 or 1-75; go south on SR 305 or I-C-1 (0 to 2 miles) 75 to SR 30; go east on SR 30, through Athens to Etowah; turn left at the intersection of U.S. 411 and SR 30 and go 2 miles to the reception center.Take local roads to SR 68; go east on SR 68 to SR 305 or 1-75; go south on SR 305 or I-C-2 (2 to 5 miles) 75 to SR 30; go east on SR 30, through Athens to Etowah; turn left at the intersection of U.S. 411 and SR 30 and go 2 miles to the reception center.C-4, C-5, C- (2 to 5 miles) Take local roads to SR 30; go east on SR 30 through Athens into Etowah; turn left at the 7, C-8 intersection of U.S. 411 and SR 30; go 2 miles to the reception center.C-9, C-10 (5 to 10 miles) Take local roads to SR 30; go east on SR 30 through Athens into Etowah; turn left at the intersection of U.S. 411 and SR 30; go 2 miles to the reception center.C-3, C-6, C- Take local roads to SR 68, SR 30, or SR 305; go east on SR 68 to 1-75; south on 1-75 to (5 to 10 miles) SR 30; south on SR 305 to SR 30; east on SR 30, through Athens to Etowah; turn left at the intersection of U.S. 411 and SR 30; go 2 miles to the reception center.Take local roads to U.S. 27; go south on U.S. 27 into Soddy-Daisy; turn left at the D-1 (0 to 2 miles) intersection of Sequoyah Access Road and U.S. 27 and go about 1/2 mile to the reception center.Take local roads to U.S. 27; go south on U.S. 27 into Soddy-Daisy; turn left at the D-2, D-4, D-5 (2 to 5 miles) intersection of Sequoyah Access Road and U.S. 27 and go about 1/2 mile to the reception center.-3, D-6, D- Take local roads to U.S. 27; go south on U.S. 27 into Soddy-Daisy; turn left at the 7-, D-8, D-9 (5 to 10 miles) intersection of Sequoyah Access Road and US 27 and go about 1/2 mile to the reception center.watts br -eta -ver5.kd=4-4-3 CE achi#MkMwm A D £M u ns i t a I i WIMP-'Cw. F.4 Legend X Plant Location uffww A Reception Centers Controlled Evacuation Route--10 Mile EPZ[ ]EPZ Sectors I Nk*A 0 5 10 Miles 434y.ft A C94 B- -~s4*MAfk*ý-wO-7 ARCADIS c-rnmf ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates 5. Evacuation Time Estimate Methodology

5.1 Evacuation

Analysis Cases Time estimates have been prepared for a general evacuation scenario for each of these analysis cases:* Winter Weekday, Fair Weather, and Adverse Weather Conditions

Winter Weeknight, Fair Weather Conditions

Winter Weekend, Fair Weather Conditions

Summer Weekday, Fair Weather, and Adverse Weather Conditions

Summer Weeknight, Fair Weather Conditions

Summer Weekend, Fair Weather Conditions Areas for evacuation are selected based on the "keyhole" configuration (0 to 2-mile zone plus 2 to 5 miles or 0 to 5 miles plus 5- to 10-mile downwind zone). The partial-EPZ evacuation areas for WBN are reproduced in Table 5-1, based on the Protective Action Response (PAR) chart. Separate simulations may not be necessary for each of the areas listed in Table 5-1. ETEs will generally be controlled by whether one or two critical ERPAs are included.

Enough cases will be run to ensure that representative ETEs are obtained for all potential scenarios.

For partial EPZ evacuation cases, "shadow" vehicle demand (20 percent of residents) is assigned to all ERPAs that are not included in the evacuation region, in addition to the region outside of the EPZ.waft bar- (e -veS.do 5-1 0 ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power.Plant Evacuation Time Estimates Table 5-1 Potential Evacuation Areas for Watts Bar EPZ Wind Diretfo m) EPZ ms/ERPA, 2-mile radius and 5 miles downwind N A-1 ,B-1 ,C-1 ,C-4,C-5,C-7,C-8,D-1 ,D-4 NNE A-1 ,B-1 ,C-1 ,C-4,C-7,C-8,D-1 ,D-4 NE A-1 ,B-1 ,C-1 ,C-4,C-7,D-1 ,D-4,D-5 ENE A-1,B-1,C-1,C-7,D-1,D-2,D-4,D-5 E A-1 ,B-1 ,C-1 ,D-1 ,D-2,D-4,D-5 ESE A-1,A-3,B-1,C-1,D-1,D-2,D-5 SE A-1 ,A-2,A-3,B-1 ,C-1 ,D-1 ,D-2 SSE A-1,A-2,A-3,B-1,B-4,C-1,D-1,D-2 S A-1,A-2,A-3,B-1,B-4,C-1,D-1 SSW A-1 ,A-2,B-1 ,B-2,B-4,C-1 ,D-1 SW-WSW A-1,B-1 ,B-2,B-4,C-1 ,C-2,D-1 W A-1,B-1,B-2,C-1,C-2,D-1 WNW A-1 ,B-1 ,C-1 ,C-2,C-5,D-1 NW A-1 ,B-1 ,C-1 ,C-2,C-4,C-5,D-1 NNW A-1 ,B-1 ,C-1 ,C-2,C-4,C-5,C-7,C-8,D-1 2-mile radius and 10 miles downwind N A-1 ,B-1 ,C-1 ,C-4,C-5,C-7,C-8,C-9,C-1 0,C-1i ,D-1 ,D-4 NNE A-1,B-1,C-1,C-4,C-7,C-8,C-9,C-10,C-1 1,D-1,D-4,D-9 NE A-1 ,B-1 ,C-1 ,C-4,C-7,C-9,D-1 ,D-4,D-5,D-6,D-7,D-8,D-9 ENE A-1 ,B-1,C-1 ,C-7,C-9,D-1,D-2,D-4,D-5,D-6,D-7,D-8,D-9 E A-1 ,A-4,B-1 ,C-1 ,D-1 ,D-2,D-3,D-4,D-5,D-6,D-7,D-8 ESE A-1 ,A-3,A-4,A-7,B-1 ,C-1 ,D-1 ,D-2,D-3,D-5,D-6,D-7 SE A-1 ,A-2,A-3,A-4,A-6,A-7,B-1,C-1 ,D-1 ,D-2,D-3 SSE A-1 ,A-2,A-3,A-4,A-5,A-6,A-7,B-1,C-1 ,D-1 ,D-2 S A-1 ,A-2,A-3,A-5,A-6,A-7,B-1,B-4,C-1 ,D-1 SSW A-1 ,A-2,A-3,A-5,A-6,B-1 ,B-2,B-4,B-5,C-1 ,D-1 SW A-1 ,A-5,B-1 ,B-2,B-3,B-4,B-5,C-1 ,C-2,D-1 WSW A-1 ,B-1 ,B-2,B-3,B-4,B-5,C-1 ,C-2,C-3,D-1 W A-1 ,B-1 ,B-2,B-3,B-5,C-1 ,C-2,C-3,C-5,C-6,D-1 WNW A-1 ,B-1 ,B-3,C-1 ,C-2,C-3,C-5,C-6,C-1i ,D-1 NW A-1 ,B-1 ,C-1 ,C-2,C-3,C-4,C-5,C-6,C-1 1,0-1 NNW A-1 ,B-1 ,C-1 ,C-2,C-4,C-5,C-6,C-7,C-8,C-9,C-10,C-11 ,D-1 Entire EPZ All 5-2 ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates 5.2 Initial Notification The EPZ surrounding WBN has an outdoor siren notification system consistent with the requirements of NUREG-0654, Rev. 1/FEMA-REP-1 Appendix 3. This system will be used by state and local officials to alert the population to turn on their radios and television sets. Pursuant to NUREG 0654, Rev. 1 guidance, notification messages will commence on the designated EAS television and radio stations concurrent with sounding of the sirens and tone alert radios. Within 15 minutes of alert notification, essentially all of the population within the EPZ will begin to receive an informational or instructional message. If evacuation is deemed necessary, the timing of the order to evacuate and notification measures will be controlled by the state and local emergency preparedness officials.

Those officials may choose to alert and mobilize an emergency response workforce to control and expedite evacuation prior to the evacuation order.5.3 Transportation-Dependent Population The transportation-dependent population includes individuals without access to transportation, as well as those requiring special transportation assistance.

Transportation-dependent persons will be notified of a protective action recommendation in the same manner as the general public. If evacuation is recommended, persons needing transportation assistance will be informed through the EAS to contact the appropriate officials for assistance.

Evacuees who do not have access to transportation and confined persons who require special transportation assistance will be provided transportation by the appropriate agency.5.4 Evacuation Preparation Times and Departure Distributions It is assumed that no vehicles will begin to evacuate during the 15-minute initial notification period. Accordingly, in the model simulations, vehicles will begin to evacuate at 15 minutes following the initial notification.

After the initial 15-minute time period, vehicles are loaded at a linear rate over each 5-minute time interval, in accordance with the network loading distributions for each population type. For example, if 2 percent of 2,500 vehicles (50 vehicles) are to be loaded at a specific location over a 5-minute period, PTV Vision will load 10 vehicles per minute at that location during the specified interval.

Network loading distribution assumptions for the permanent population, transient population, and special facilities are based on the anticipated response of different population sectors to an evacuation order.Mobilization times for residents and workers reflect the data acquired by the telephone watts bar -eW-w5 vet5.do=-5-3 ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates survey of EPZ residents, and are consistent with published data from actual historical events. Loading distributions are explained below and summarized on Figure 5-1.5.4.1 Permanent and Seasonal Population Permanent and seasonal residents with access to automobiles will take varying amounts of time to begin evacuating.

Some persons will leave as quickly as possible;most will take some time to prepare, pack valuables and clothes, and then depart;some will take added time to secure property before departing; and some may require transportation assistance.

In addition, actual departure and preparation times may vary according to the perceived severity of a particular evacuation order.Based on these factors, it was assumed that there would be a period of up to 3 hours3.472222e-5 days 8.333333e-4 hours 4.960317e-6 weeks 1.1415e-6 months over which the permanent residents would begin to evacuate.

That is, permanent resident households would begin to evacuate between 15 and 180 minutes after the decision to notify the population to evacuate is made. Based on estimated warning diffusion and survey results from EPZ residents, during a weekday, 50 percent would depart within 65 minutes, 90 percent within 100 minutes, and 99 percent within 165 minutes. At night, 50 percent would depart within 65 minutes, 90 percent within 105 minutes, and 99 percent within 170 minutes. These time profiles are generally consistent with observed behavior during evacuations for chemical releases.5.4.2 Transient Population It was assumed that the workforce would be subject to the same warning diffusion as the general public. Based on estimated warning diffusion and survey results from EPZ residents, it was estimated that 50 percent of the workforce would evacuate within 40 minutes following the decision to evacuate, 90 percent within 65 minutes, and 99 percent within 105 minutes. For a few facilities, it may be necessary for a limited number of workers to remain on the job in order to safely shut down processes, secure the facility, or maintain essential operations.

The ETEs do not address those workers who remain behind, because there is no reliable basis for predicting whether or how soon they will evacuate.

The assumption that all workers evacuate provides a conservative estimate of vehicle demand. Discussions with emergency preparedness officials indicate that the same time distribution is also reasonable for the other transient population categories within the EPZ, including motels and recreation areas.5-4 SARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates 5.4.3 Special Facilities It was assumed that special facilities (i.e., schools, nursing homes) within the EPZ would also receive initial notification promptly.

Based on data obtained from previous studies, vehicle departure times were developed that reflect a distribution of notification, preparation, and mobilization times.Consistent with the current off-site emergency response plans, it was assumed that schools will be evacuated via bus to the designated host schools. For school facilities, it was assumed that up to 1 hour1.157407e-5 days 2.777778e-4 hours 1.653439e-6 weeks 3.805e-7 months may be required to assemble buses, transport vehicles to schools, and load students onto buses. Vehicles stationed at the facilities at the time of the ordered evacuation could be loaded in as little as 15 minutes following notification.

Accordingly, 50 percent of school buses depart onto the evacuation network during the period between 15 and 75 minutes, 90 percent by 135 minutes, and 99 percent by 165 minutes. The school profile was also applied for daycare facilities.

Evacuation of nursing home facilities would also require additional time associated with preparation and transport of vehicles to the respective facilities.

Based on previous studies, it was assumed that these facilities would begin to evacuate between 30 minutes and 3 hours3.472222e-5 days 8.333333e-4 hours 4.960317e-6 weeks 1.1415e-6 months following notification.

The first 50 percent will depart within 90 minutes, 90 percent within 150 minutes, and 99 percent within 180 minutes.waon b- -at -veWSd 5-5 0 ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates Departure Times -Watts Bar EPZ 1.0' 0.8 M -resident day 0 -resident night worker S0.4 -schools--special 0.2 -transit depend 0.0 0 50 100 150 200 Time (minutes)Figure 5-1 Departure Time Distributions for the Watts Bar EPZ 5.5 Evacuation Simulation Traffic simulation provides the ability to analyze evacuation of an area in great detail. In most traffic simulation models, there are two main inputs: supply (roadway) network data and demand (population and vehicular) data. Traffic models use different types of algorithms to predict traffic flow and provide measures of effectiveness, such as average travel times, total number of vehicles exiting the system, and queue lengths at various times and points.5.5.1 General Structure ARCADIS used PTV Vision to perform evacuation modeling for different scenarios.

The PTV Vision traffic simulation software package includes VISSIM (microscopic traffic simulation) and VISUM (macroscopic traffic simulation).

VISUM is a comprehensive, flexible software system for transportation planning, travel demand modeling, and network data management.

VISSIM is capable of performing detailed microscopic simulation of traffic, public transport, and pedestrian simulations, and can model any type of traffic control and geometric configuration.

Both VISUM and VISSIM are capable of performing multimodal analysis, including cars, commercial vehicles, wafts ba -eSe -mer5doc 5-6 ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates buses, trains, motorcycles, bicycles, and pedestrians.

The two programs work together seamlessly, saving valuable time and resources.

I" Verified Evacuation Network* 0-D Mathices-Traffic Demand Volumes I*Trael Times-Queue Lengths-Bottlenecks Figure 5-2 Evacuation Modeling and Simulation Using PTV Vision Suite VISUM was used to develop the evacuation network and population entry nodes (centroids).

One of the key features of VISUM is its ability to interact seamlessly with GIS data, such as the ESRI ArcGIS database.

The field-verified evacuation network data and demand data developed in ArcGIS were imported directly into VISUM. Origin-destination trip tables were developed for the evacuation and imported into VISUM.VISUM software was then used to route the origin-destination information on the network using a dynamic equilibrium algorithm.

This algorithm ensured that traffic levels on the network were realistic given the capacities available on individual links.Once an initial solution was found in VISUM, the information was exported into VISSIM for microsimulation.

A microsimulation was deemed a necessary step in order to obtain detailed and realistic results on queuing and average travel times. VISSIM can model an intersection with different types of traffic control, such as yield signs, stop signs, and signals. VISSIM also provides a better understating of critical and congested parts of the network.5.5.2 Simulation Process The ETE results include the time to evacuate 90 percent and 100 percent of the total permanent and transient population.

Based on the current guidance, ETEs for special facilities, schools, and the transit-dependent population are developed separately; only time to evacuate 100 percent of these population groups was needed.watts bm -eo -vSdo 5-7 0 ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates Consistent with current guidance, vehicle demand for each scenario was based on 100 percent of the population residing in areas designated for evacuation, plus 20 percent of the population residing in ERPAs outside the designated evacuation area, and 20 percent of the population residing outside of the EPZ, out to a distance of 15 miles. Vehicle demand outside of the designated evacuation area is intended to account for the impact of "shadow evacuees." A sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the impact of different input parameters and assumptions, such as changes in lane closures, trip generation times, vehicular demand, and evacuation routes.The simulation process can be summarized as follows: VISUM 1. Create every scenario based on: a. Background traffic b. Time of day c. Day of week d. Weather condition e. Season f. Wind direction g. Shadow traffic 2. Run Dynamic Traffic Assignment to calculate permanent and transient, shadow, special need/school volumes.3. Assignment process will last until suitable convergence is reached. VISUM provides output on the goodness of convergence after assignment.

The convergence fit is not as critical because this is an evacuation model of a no-notice event; therefore, full user equilibrium cannot be expected.4. Export to VISSIM.watts bw -eta -v5r5.d 5-8 ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates VISSIM 1. Warm-up time built into background/pass-through traffic generation.

2. Check for any local calibration parameters.

3. Run the final multimodal Dynamic Traffic Assignment in VISSIM to consider queues and intersection delays.4. Sensitivity analysis and count evacuees at 2, 5, and 10 miles.5. Prepare ETE times.MOEs 1. 90 percent evacuation time (for all wind directions and scenarios, staged and normal evacuations).

a. This applies to evacuation of the public only.2. 1.00 percent evacuation time (for all wind directions and scenarios, staged and normal evacuations).

3. Color-coded roadway map at various times (2, 4, 6 hours6.944444e-5 days 0.00167 hours 9.920635e-6 weeks 2.283e-6 months ), which identifies where long queues exist, including LOS E and F conditions.

waft b-e -veroM --9 5-9 ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates 6. Analysis of Evacuation Times 6.1 Evacuation Time Estimate Summary ETEs for the general population in the Watts Bar EPZ are summarized by scenario and distance in Table 6-1 (times for 90 percent and 100 percent of vehicles to depart, for 2-mile zones, all zones to 5 miles, and all zones to 10 miles). The pattern of evacuation times is consistent with the differences in vehicle demand and travel time for different scenarios.

The 2-mile zone involves the shortest travel distance; 90 percent ETEs for the 2-mile zone range from 1:30 to 1:45, and 100% ETEs are 3:10 to 3:30. For all zones out to 5 miles, the 90% ETEs are 2:20 to 2:45, and the 100% ETEs are 3:30 to 4:20. For the full EPZ, the 90% ETEs are 2:25 to 3:25, while the 100% ETEs are 4:10 to 4:55. All of these times are indicative of moderate delays related to traffic congestion.

During normal weather conditions, the final 10 percent of vehicles clear the 2-mile zone approximately 105 minutes after the initial 90 percent clear. The 5-mile zone clears approximately 90 minutes after the initial 90 percent clear. When the full EPZ evacuates, the last 10 percent will take approximately 75 minutes longer to evacuate.This shortening tail indicates that the population in the outer zones of the EPZ will depart at a slower rate than the population within 2 miles of WBN. A majority of the population in the 2 mile zone are transient workers and will depart faster than the permanent residents in the outer areas. Adverse weather adds up to 20 minutes for the summer weekday ETEs and up to 40 minutes for the winter weekday ETEs.6.2 Comparison with Previous Study There are numerous methodological differences between the current ETE study and the 2001 study. One prominent difference was the departure curves between the studies. The previous study conservatively estimated the auto-owning population to complete their departures 3 hours3.472222e-5 days 8.333333e-4 hours 4.960317e-6 weeks 1.1415e-6 months 15 minutes after receiving initial warning. The current study departures conclude 2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months 30 minutes after initial warning based on the results of the telephone survey data. Additionally, the previous study assumed a speed of 30 mph on all major evacuation routes. The simulations results for the current study resulted in varied speeds on all major evacuation routes. The new 100% ETE time is 4 hours4.62963e-5 days 0.00111 hours 6.613757e-6 weeks 1.522e-6 months 15 minutes compared to the 6 hours6.944444e-5 days 0.00167 hours 9.920635e-6 weeks 2.283e-6 months estimated in the 2001 study.watts bar -ete -vet5.doc1 6-1 ARCAflIS Watts Bar Nuclear ARCADIS Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates 6.3 Keyhole Evacuation Scenarios ETEs for scenarios that reflect the current range of PAR scenarios to evacuate the near-field population and selected downwind zones are summarized in Tables 6-2 and 6-3. The 2-mile zone and 5-mile downwind PAR scenarios have very similar 100%ETEs. The 90 percent times are also similar, except for the N, NNE, and NNW scenarios, which take about 30 minutes longer to clear. This is due to the inclusion of Zone C-8, which incorporates the City of Decatur. A high amount of resident population is concentrated here. This population center takes longer to clear than transient population.

The 2-mile zone and 10-mile downwind PAR scenarios also have similar 100% ETEs. Again, the inclusion of Zone C-8 lengthens the 90 percent times by about 30 minutes (N and NNE).6.4 Staged Evacuation Scenarios A series of staged evacuation scenarios were evaluated based on NRC guidance (CR-7002).

In a staged evacuation, the 2-mile zone evacuates first, while surrounding zones shelter in place; after the population has evacuated the 2-mile zone, the outer zones would be instructed to evacuate.

The "Stage 1" time is determined by simulating evacuation of the 2-mile zone for the Winter Weekday, Normal Weather scenario, with only background and shadow traffic in other parts of the EPZ. Once the Stage 1 time (1:30) was determined, a revised set of departure curves was developed for the outer (Stage 2) zones. The Stage 2 departure curves for Watts Bar are shown on Figure 6-1. The departure curves are much steeper at the beginning of Stage 2 to account for the preparation time of evacuees sheltering in place during Stage 1. It was assumed that these evacuees will be ready to go at the beginning of Stage 2.Results for staged evacuation scenarios are summarized in Table 6-4. The ETEs show some variation per wind direction.

Again, the inclusion of Zone C-8 lengthens the clearance time. The ETEs for the staged scenarios are slightly greater than the ETEs for the "unstaged" scenarios.

This accounts for the fact that the outer 2- to 5-mile zone takes slightly longer to clear under a staged evacuation due to their delayed start time.6.5 TEMA Sector Evacuation Scenarios Part of the Tennessee PAR logic is to evacuate full sectors of the EPZ at once rather than by individual ERPA. For example, if ERPAs A-1 and A-2 are recommended to wa*s br -eS -vWe5.doc6 6-2 ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates evacuate, then TEMA will evacuate all of Sector A. Table 6-5 summarizes the evacuation time estimates for the each sector. The results are similar to the keyhole scenarios presented in Table 6-3. Sector C has the longest 90% ETE across all weather scenarios due to the City of Decatur. Sector A has the longest 100% ETE which is most likely due to evacuees having to take longer routes around natural barriers found in this sector, such as the Piney River.Stage 2 Departure Times -Watts Bar EPZ 1.0 V o0.8-resident day o 0.6 -resident night.2-worker S0.4 -schools--special o==0.2 0. -transit depend 0.0 0 50 100 150 200 Time (minutes)Figure 6-1 Stage 2 Departure Time Distributions for the Watts Bar EPZbw -eta -vw5S.docx 6-3 1 ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates Table 6-1 Evacuation Time Estimate Summary for Watts Bar EPZ I Scenario:

1 (1) 1 (2) I (3) 1 (4) I (5) I (6) I (7) I (8) Weather:l Normal Adverse N Normal Normal INormal Adverse Normal N Normal 90 Percent Evacuation of Affected Areas (hours:minutes)

A-1,B-1,C-1,D-1 2-Mile Zone. 1:35 1:45 1:35 1:35 1:30 1:40 1:30 1:30 A-1 ,B-1 ,C-1 ,D-1 ,A-2,A-3,B-2,B-4,C-5-Mile Zone 2:30 2:40 2:20 2:20 2:30 2:45 2:20 2:20 2,C-4,C-5,C-7,C-8,D-2,D-4,D-5 ALL 10-Mile EPZ 3:00 3:10 2:30 2:30 3:00 3:25 2:25 2:25 100 Percent Evacuation of Affected Areas (hours:minutes)

A-1,B-1,C-1,D-1 2-Mile Zone 3:15 3:25 3:10 3:10 3:15 3:30 3:10 3:10 A-1 ,B-1 ,C-1 ,D-1 ,A-2,A-3,B-2,B-4,C-5-Mile Zone 3:55 4:05 3:30 3:30 3:55 4:20 3:30 3:30 2,C-4,C-5,C-7,C-8,D-2,D-4,D-5 ALL 10-Mile EPZ 4:15 4:25 4:10 4:10 4:15 4:55 4:10 4:10 wafs bm -eO -v.r.d=o.6-4 0 ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates Table 6-2 Evacuation Time Estimates for Partial EPZ Scenarios (2-Mile Zone Plus 5-Mile Downwind, Unstaged)I Scenario:

I (1)1 (2) 1 (3) 1 (4) 1 (5) 1 (5) 1 (7) 1 (8)Affected ERPAs I Weather: I Normal I Adverse I Normal I Normal I Normal I Adverse I Normal I Normal 90 Percent Evacuation of Affected Areas (hours:minutes)

A-IB-1,C-1,C-4,C-5,C-7,C-N 2:30 2:40 2:20 2:20 2:30 2:45 2:20 2:20 8,D-1,D-4 A-i,1-1,C-1,C-4,C-7,C-8,D-NNE 2:30 2:40 2:20 2:20 2:30 2:45 2:20 2:20 1,D-4 A-1 ,B-1,C-1,C-4,C-7,D-1,D-NE 2:05 2:15 1:55 1:55 2:05 2:20 1:55 1:55 A-1,B-1,C-1,C-7,D-1,D-2,D-ENE 2:05 2:15 1:55 1:55 2:05 2:20 1:55 1:55 4,1-5 A-1,B-1,C-1,D-1,D-2,D-4,D-5 E 2:05 2:15 1:55 1:55 2:05 2:20 1:55 1:55 A-1,A-3,B-1,C-1,D-1,D-2,D-5 ESE 2:00 2:10 1:50 1:50 2:00 2:15 1:50 1:50 A-1,A-2,A-3,B-1,C-1,D-1,D-2 SE 2:00 2:10 1:50 1:50 2:00 2:15 1:50 1:50 A-1,A-2,A-3,I-1,D-4,C-1,D-SSE 2:05 2:15 1:55 1:55 2:00 2:15 1:50 1:50 1,0-2 I_ _ _ I _ _ ___ _ _A-1,A-2,A-3,B-1,B-4,C-1,D-1 S 2:05 2:15 1:55 1:55 2:00 2:15 1:50 1:50 A-1,A-2,-13,B-12,B-4,C-1,D-1 SSW 2:00 2:10 1:50 1:50 2:00 2:15 1:50 1:50 A-1,A2-1,B-2,B-4,C-1,C-2,D-1 SW-WSW 2:00 2:10 1:50 1:50 2:00 2:15 1:50 1:50 A-1,B-1 ,B-2,C-1,C-21,D-1 W 2:00 2:10 1:50 1:50 2:00 2:15 1:50 1:50 A-1,B-1,C-1,C-2,C-5,D-1 WNW 2:00 2:10 1:50 1:50 2:00 2:15 1:50 1:50 A-1,B-1,C-1,C-2,C-4,C-5,D-1 NW 2:00 2:10 1:50 1:50 2:00 2:15 1:50 1:50 6-5 wits bN 65-5 ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates I Scenario:

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) 1 (7) (8)Affected ERPAs I Weather: I Normal I Adverse I Normal I Normal I Normal I Adverse I Normal I Normal A-1,B-1,C-1,C2CC5C 7-1,8,D-1 NNW 2:20 2:30 2:10 2:10 J 2:25 2:40 2:15 2:15 7,C-8,D-1 III 100 Percent Evacuation of Affected Areas (hours:minutes)

A-iB-1,C-1,C-4,C-5,C-7,C-N 3:55 4:05 3:30 3:30 3:55 4:20 3:30 3:30 8,D-1 ,D-4 1 A-1 ,B-1 ,C-1 ,C-4,C-7,C-8,D-NNE 3:55 4:05 3:30 3:30 3:55 4:20 3:30 3:30 1 ,D-4 A-i,13-1,C-1,C-4,C-7,D-1,D-NE 3:55 4:05 3:30 3:30 3:55 4:20 3:30 3:30 4,D-5 A-I,1-1,C-1,C-7,D-1,D-2,D-ENE 3:55 4:05 3:30 3:30 3:55 4:20 3:30 3:30 4,D-5 A-1 ,B-1 ,C-1 ,D-1 ,D-2,D-4,D-5 E 3:55 4:05 3:30 3:30 3:55 4:20 3:30 3:30 A-1,A-3,B-1,C-1,D-1,D-2,D-5 ESE 3:35 3:45 3:10 3:10 3:35 4:00 3:10 3:10 A-1 ,A-2,A-3,B-1 ,C-1 ,D-1 ,D-2 SE 3:55 4:05 3:30 3:30 3:55 4:20 3:30 3:30 A-iA-2,A-3,B-1,B-4,C-1,D-SSE 3:45 3:55 3:20 3:20 3:45 4:10 3:20 3:20 1 ,D-2 A-1,A-2,A-3,B-1 ,B-4,C-1,D-1 S 3:45 3:55 3:20 3:20 3:45 4:10 3:20 3:20 A-1 ,A-2,B-1 ,B-2,B-4,C-1 ,D-1 SSW 3:55 4:05 3:30 3:30 3:55 4:20 3:30 3:30 A-1 ,B-1 ,B-2,B-4,C-1 ,C-2,D-1 SW-WSW 3:55 4:05 3:30 3:30 3:55 4:20 3:30 3:30 A-1 ,B-1i,B-2,C-1 ,C-2,D-1 W 3:45 3:55 3:20 3:20 3:45 4:10 3:20 3:20 A-1,B-1,C-1,C-2,C-5,D-1 WNW 3:45 3:55 3:20 3:20 3:45 4:10 3:20 3:20 watts baw -eta -r5.d-6-6 ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation lime Estimates Scenario: (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)Affected ERPAs I I 4 1 + 4 1 Weather: Normal Adverse Normal Normal SNormal Adverse Normal Normal A-1,B-1,C-1,C-2,C-4,C-5,D-1 NW 3:45 3:55 3:20 3:20 3:45 4:10 3:20 3:20 A-1,B-1,C-1,C-2,C-4,C-5,C-NNW 3:40 3:50 3:15 3:15 3:40 4:05 3:15 3:15 7,C-8,D-1 watts bar -eae -vW5Adoc6 6-7 ARCADIS Table 6-3 Evacuation Time Estimates for Partial EPZ Scenarios (2-Mile Zone Plus 10-Mile Downwind, Unstaged)Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates I Scenario:

I (1) I 1V) I (3) 1 (4) 1 (5)I (5) I (7) I (8)Affected ERPAs I I I I I I I Weather: I Normal I Adverse I Normal I Normal I Normal I Adverse I Normal I Normal 90 Percent Evacuation of Affected Areas (hours:minutes)

A-1 ,B-1 ,C-1 ,C-4,C-5,C-7,C-8,C-9,C-10,C-11,D-N 2:55 3:05 2:45 2:45 2:55 3:20 2:45 2:45 1 ,D-4 A-1 ,B-1 ,C-1 ,C-4,C-7,C-8,C-9,C-1 0,C-1 1,D-1,D- NNE 2:55 3:05 2:45 2:45 2:55 3:20 2:45 2:45 4,D-9 A-1 ,B-1 ,C-1 ,C-4,C-7,C-9,D-1,D-4,D-5,D-6,D-7,D-NE 2:30 2:40 2:20 2:20 2:30 2:55 2:20 2:20 8,D-9 A-1 ,B-1 ,C-1 ,C-7,C-9,D-1,D-2,D-4,D-5,D-6,D-7,D-ENE 2:30 2:40 2:20 2:20 2:30 2:55 2:20 2:20 8,D-9 A-1 ,A-4,B-1 ,C-1 ,D-1 ,D-2,D-3,D-4,D-5,D-6,D-7,D-E 2:25 2:35 2:15 2:15 2:25 2:50 2:15 2:15 8 A-1 ,A-3,A-4,A-7,B-1 ,C-1,D-1 ,D-2,D-3,D-5,0-6,D-ESE 2:25 2:35 2:15 2:15 2:25 2:50 2:15 2:15 7 A-1 ,A-2,A-3,A-4,A-6,A-SE 2:35 2:45 2:25 2:25 2:30 2:55 2:20 2:20 7,B-1,C-1,D-1,D-2,D-3 A-1 ,A-2,A-3,A-4,A-5,A-SSE 2:35 2:45 2:25 2:25 2:30 2:55 2:20 2:20 6,A-7,B-1,C-1 ,D-1 ,D-2 A-1 ,A-2,A-3,A-5,A-6,A-S 2:35 2:45 2:25 2:25 2:30 2:55 2:20 2:20 7,B-1 ,B-4,C-1 ,D-1 A-1 ,A-2,A-3,A-5,A-6,B-SSW 2:35 2:45 2:25 2:25 2:25 2:50 2:15 2:15 1 ,B-2,B-4,B-5,C-1,D-1 watts bar -a 8 ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates Scenario: (1)Vz)(4)(5)(1)(0)Affected ERPAs+ 4 4 4 + + 4 Weather: Normal Adverse Normal Normal Normal I Adverse Normal Normal A-1,A-5,B-1,B-2,B-3,B-SW 2:35 2:45 2:25 2:25 2:25 2:50 2:15 2:15 4,B-5,C-1 ,C-2,D-1 A-1,B-1,B-2,B-3,B-4,B-WSW 2:35 2:45 2:25 2:25 2:25 2:50 2:15 2:15 5,C-1 ,C-2,C-3,D-1 A-1,B-1,B-2,B-3,B-5,C-W 2:35 2:45 2:25 2:25 2:25 2:50 2:15 2:15 1 ,C-2,C-3,C-5,C-6,D-1 I I A-1,B-1,B-3,C-1 ,C-2,C- WNW 2:45 2:55 2:35 2:35 2:45 3:10 2:35 2:35 3,C-5,C-6,C-11,D-1

_A-1,B-1,C-1,C-2,C-3,C-NW 2:45 2:55 2:35 2:35 2:45 3:10 2:35 2:35 4,C-5,C-6,C-1 1,D-1 I I I I 100 Percent Evacuation of Affected Areas (hours:minutes)

A-1 ,B-1 ,C-1 ,C-4,C-5,C-7,C-8,C-9,C-10,C-11,D-N 4:00 4:10 3:50 3:50 4:00 4:40 3:50 3:50 1 ,D-4 A-1 ,B-1 ,C-1 ,C-4,C-7,C-8,C-9,C-10,C-11,D-1,D-NNE 4:00 4:10 3:50 3:50 4:00 4:40 3:50 3:50 4,D-9 A-1 ,B-1 ,C-1 ,C-4,C-7,C-9,D-1,D-4,D-5,D-6,D-7,D-NE 4:05 4:15 3:55 3:55 4:05 4:45 3:55 3:55 8,D-9 A-1 ,B-1 ,C-1 ,C-7,C-9,D-1,D-2,D-4,D-5,D-6,D-7,D-ENE 4:05 4:15 3:55 3:55 4:05 4:45 3:55 3:55 8,D-9 A-1 ,A-4,B-1 ,C-1 ,D-1 ,D-2,D-3,D-4,D-5,D-6,D-7,D-E 4:10 4:20 4:00 4:00 4:10 4:50 4:00 4:00 8 1 1 1 wM bw --va5A.o6 6-9 0ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates Scenario: (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(a)Affected ERPAs Weather: Normal Adverse Normal Normal Normal I Adverse Normal Normal A-1 ,A-3,A-4,A-7,B-1 ,C-1,D-1,D-2,D-3,D-5,D-6,D-ESE 4:10 4:20 4:00 4:00 4:10 4:50 4:00 4:00 7 A-1,A-2,A-3,A-4,A-6,A-SE 4:15 4:25 4:05 4:05 4:15 4:55 4:05 4:05 7,B-1 ,C-1 ,D-1 ,D-2,D-3 A-1,A-2,A-3,A-4,A-5,A-SSE 4:15 4:25 4:05 4:05 4:15 4:55 4:05 4:05 6,A-7,B-1 ,C-1 ,D-1,D-2 A-1,A-2,A-3,A-5,A-6,A-S 4:15 4:25 4:05 4:05 4:15 4:55 4:05 4:05 7,B-1 ,B4,C-1 ,D-1 A-i ,A-2,A-3,A-5,A-6,B-SSW 3:55 4:05 3:45 3:45 4:00 4:40 3:50 3:50 1 ,B-2,B-4,B-5,C-1 ,D-1 A-i ,A-5,B-1 ,B-2,B-3,B-SW 3:55 4:05 3:45 3:45 4:00 4:40 3:50 3:50 4,B-5,C-1 ,C-2,D-1 A-1 ,B-1 ,B-2,B-3,B-4,B-WSW 3:55 4:05 3:45 3:45 4:00 4:40 3:50 3:50 5,C-1 ,C-2,C-3,D-1 A-1 ,B-1 ,B-2,B-3,B-5,C-W 3:55 4:05 3:45 3:45 4:00 4:40 3:50 3:50 1 ,C-2,C-3,C-5,C-6,D-1 A-1,B-1,B-3,C-1,C-2,C-WNW 4:10 4:20 4:00 4:00 4:10 4:50 4:00 4:00 3,C-5,C-6,C-1 1,D-1 A-1 ,B-1,C-1,C-2,C-3,C-NW 4:10 4:20 4:00 4:00 4:10 4:50 4:00 4:00 4,C-5,C-6,C-1 1,D-1 I I 6-10 wafts b. -ete --6h,-ocx ARCADIS Table 6-4 Evacuation Time Estimates for Staged EPZ Scenarios (2-Mile Zone, then 5 Miles Downwind)Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates z-mnie Lone Scenario:

(1) () (4) () (65) (7) )(A-i, B-i, C-1, D-i)then: Weather: Normal Adverse Normal Normal Normal Adverse Normal Normal 90 Percent Evacuation of Affected Areas (hours:minutes)

'____C-4,C-5,C-7,C-8,D-1 ,D- N 2:35 2:45 2:25 2:25 2:40 2:55 2:30 2:30 4 C-4,C-7,C-8,D-1 ,D-4 NNE 2:40 2:50 2:30 2:30 2:45 3:00 2:35 2:35 C-4,C-7,D-1,D-4,D-5 NE 2:15 2:25 2:05 2:05 2:20 2:35 2:10 2:10 C-7,D-2,D-4,D-5 ENE 2:15 2:25 2:05 2:05 2:20 2:35 2:10 2:10 D-2,D-4,D-5 E 2:20 2:30 2:10 2:10 2:25 2:40 2:15 2:15 A-3,D-2,D-5 ESE 2:20 2:30 2:10 2:10 2:25 2:40 2:15 2:15 A-2,A-3,D-2 SE 2:25 2:35 2:15 2:15 2:30 2:45 2:20 2:20 A-2,A-3,B-4,D-2 SSE 2:25 2:35 2:15 2:15 2:30 2:45 2:20 2:20 A-2,A-3,B-4 S 2:25 2:35 2:15 2:15 2:30 2:45 2:20 2:20 A-2,B-2,B-4 SSW 2:20 2:30 2:10 2:10 2:25 2:40 2:15 2:15 B-2,B-4,C-2 SW-WSW 2:20 2:30 2:10 2:10 2:25 2:40 2:15 2:15 B-2,C-2 W 2:15 2:25 2:05 2:05 2:20 2:35 2:10 2:10 C-2,C-5 WNW 2:15 2:25 2:05 2:05 2:20 2:35 2:10 2:10 C-2,C-4,C-5 NW 2:20 2:30 2:10 2:10 2:25 2:40 2:15 2:15 C-2,C-4,C-5,C-7,C-8 NNW 2:30 2:40 2:20 2:20 2:35 2:50 2:25 2:25 100 Percent Evacuation of Affected Areas (hours:minutes)

C-4,C-5,C-7,C-8,D-1,D-N 4:05 4:15 3:40 3:40 4:05 4:30 3:40 3:40 4 1 I 6-11-ftwa~ b.r -M. -

0 ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates&-miie i-one (A-i, B-i, C-1, D-i)then: Scenario:

1 (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(0)(7)(a)Weather: I Normal I Adverse Normal Normal I Normal I Adverse Normal Normal C-4,C-7,C-8,D-1,D-4 NNE 4:05 4:15 3:40 3:40 4:05 4:30 3:40 3:40 C-4,C-7,D-1,D-4,D-5 NE 4:05 4:15 3:40 3:40 4:05 4:30 3:40 3:40 C-7,D-2,D-4,D-5 ENE 4:05 4:15 3:40 3:40 4:05 4:30 3:40 3:40 D-2,D-4,D-5 E 4:05 4:15 3:40 3:40 4:05 4:30 3:40 3:40 A-3,D-2,D-5 ESE 3:45 3:55 3:20 3:20 3:45 4:10 3:20 3:20 A-2,A-3,D-2 SE 4:05 4:15 3:40 3:40 4:05 4:30 3:40 3:40 A-2,A-3,B-4,D-2 SSE 3:55 4:05 3:30 3:30 3:55 4:20 3:30 3:30 A-2,A-3,B-4 S 3:55 4:05 3:30 3:30 3:55 4:20 3:30 3:30 A-2,B-2,B-4 SSW 4:05 4:15 3:40 3:40 4:05 4:30 3:40 3:40 B-2,B-4,C-2 SW-WSW 4:05 4:15 3:40 3:40 4:05 4:30 3:40 3:40 B-2,C-2 W 3:55 4:05 3:30 3:30 3:55 4:20 3:30 3:30 C-2,C-5 WNW 3:55 4:05 3:30 3:30 3:55 4:20 3:30 3:30 C-2,C-4,C-5 NW 3:55 4:05 3:30 3:30 3:55 4:20 3:30 3:30 C-2,C-4,C-5,C-7,C-8 NNW 3:50 4:00 3:25 3:25 3:50 4:15 3:25 3:25 6-12 w.tts b --M.- -v6.d-ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates Table 6-5 Evacuation Time Estimates for TEMA Sectors I Scenario:

1 (1) 1 (2) 1 (3) 1 (4) 1 (5) 1 (6) 1 (7)1 (8)Affected ERPAs I Weather: I Normal I Adverse I Normal I Normal I Normal I Adverse I Normal I Normal 90 Percent Evacuation of Affected Areas (hours:minutes)

A-1 ,A-2,A-3,A-4,A-5,A-Sector A 2:35 2:45 2:25 2:25 2:35 3:00 2:25 2:25 6,A-7 B-11,B-2,B-3,B-4,B-5 Sector B 2:35 2:45 2:25 2:25 2:35 3:00 2:25 2:25 C-1 ,C-2,C-3,C-4,C-5,C-6,C-Sector C 2:55 3:05 2:45 2:45 2:55 3:20 2:45 2:45 7,C-8,C-9,C-10,C-11 D-1 ,D-2,D-3,D-4,D-5,D-6,D-Sector D 2:30 2:40 2:20 2:20 2:30 2:55 2:20 2:20 7,D-8,D-9 S D 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 100 Percent Evacuation of Affected Areas (hours:minutes)

A-i ,A-2,A-3,A-4,A-5,A-Sector A 4:15 4:25 4:05 4:05 4:15 4:55 4:05 4:05 6,A-7 B-1 ,B-2,B-3,B-4,B-5 Sector B 3:55 4:05 3:45 3:45 4:00 4:40 3:50 3:50 0-1 ,C-2,0-3,C-4,0-5,0-6,C-7,C-8,C-9,C-10,C-11 Sector C 4:10 4:20 4:00 4:00 4:10 4:50 4:00 4:00 D-1,D-2,D-3,D-4,D-5,D-6,D-Sector D 4:10 4:20 4:00 4:00 4:10 4:50 4:00 4:00 7,D-8,D-9 I I I _I__I__I_watts b. -OW- ve5.doc 6-13 SARIADIS Watts Bar Nuclear O -ARCAUI.)

Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates 6.6 Sensitivity to Population Growth and Roadway Impact 6.6.1 Population Growth NRC guidance (CR-7002) for updating ETE studies more frequently than the 10-year federal census includes criteria based on population growth. Specifically, if the residential population growth in the EPZ since the last ETE update is sufficient to cause an increase in the ETE by 25 percent or by 30 minutes, whichever is less, then a full ETE update study must be performed.

A sensitivity analysis was performed by determining the 90% ETEs for increases of 5, 15, 20, 40, and 60 percent of the EPZ residential population for the Winter Weekday, Normal Weather scenario.

This scenario produced the longest ETE by season or time of day. The population was increased in the same manner in the surrounding region, out to 15 miles. With a 20 percent increase in residential population above the 2010 census values, the 90 percent ETE for the full EPZ increased to 2:37, an increase of 2 minutes. To find a greater difference, the population was increased by 60 percent. After this increase, the 90 percent ETE for increased to 2:47, an increase of 12 minutes.The 100% ETEs increased more rapidly than the 90% ETEs, consistent with the general pattern of all ETE results. Results are illustrated on Figure 6-2. With a 20 percent increase in population, the 100% ETE for the full EPZ increased by 1 minute.When a 60 percent population increase was simulated, the 100% ETE increased by 23 minutes (from 4:15 to 4:38). NRC guidance (CR-7002) indicates that emergency planning decisions should be based on the 90% ETEs. The EPZ residential population for Watts Bar changed by 8 percent between 2000 and 2010, but a substantial increase in population (i.e., 20 to 60 percent) is highly unlikely to occur before 2020. It was assumed that if the residential growth within the EPZ was more than 20 percent within 10 years, it would be substantial enough to be noticed by all residents within the EPZ and local officials.

Therefore, the recommended update threshold for the Watts Bar EPZ, based on population growth, is 20 percent.-ft b.- -ere 14 0 ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates WBN -Population Growth vs ETE (Full EPZ)4:50 4:40 I--Lu 4:30 4:20 4:10 y = 0.0255x + 0.1748 R4 = 0.8505 4010mile-Upper 4- Linear (1 Omile)0%20% 40%Population Increase %60%Figure 6-2 ETE Population Growth Sensitivity Analysis 6.6.2 Roadway Impact NRC guidance (CR-7002) also requires analysis of a "roadway impact" scenario.

For this scenario, a major evacuation route is removed or reduced in capacity.Specifically, one of the five highest volume roadways is removed from service. This scenario is specified as Summer Weekday, Normal Weather for the Full EPZ. For Watts Bar, the five highest volume roadways for this scenario are listed below:* TN 30 EB -2,977 vehicles" U.S. 27/TN 29 NB -2,779 vehicles* TN 305 SB -2,351 vehicles* TN 30 WB -2,308 vehicles* TN 29 SB -2,178 vehicles.aft brn -6-.d 6-15 0ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates The route with the highest volume of vehicles, TN 30 (David W Lillard Memorial Highway east of Decatur) was selected for the roadway impact. The roadway impact was modeled by completely blocking the route to traffic. The road closure caused re-routing of evacuees compared to the Summer Day scenario with no lane closure.The impact location is shown on Figure 6-3. With the road closure in place, the ETEs increased from 2:35 (90%) and 4:15 (100%) to 2:55 (90%) and 4:40 (100%). The increased ETEs are due to evacuees taking alternate routes to avoid the road closure. Figure 6-3 compares the traffic flows by link before and after the road closure.Figure 6-3 Comparison of Traffic Flows Before and After Road Closure Scenario 6.7 Performance Metrics for Simulation Model The performance of VISSIM is assessed using standard metrics, consistent with the guidance provided in CR-7002. Table 6-6 provides a summary of simulation parameters for Winter Day Normal Weather scenario for the full EPZ. Figure 6-4 illustrates the number of vehicles on the network over the course of the simulation, while Figure 6-5 compares the rate of vehicles loading onto the network to the wafts bw -a -vOSdo 6-16 0 ARCADIS frequency of departures.

The parameters in Table 6-6 include an average travel speed for evacuating vehicles of 36.8 miles per hour, which indicates that traffic is encountering significant congestion during much of the simulation.

The average travel time of 2.48 hours5.555556e-4 days 0.0133 hours 7.936508e-5 weeks 1.8264e-5 months reflects travel to the designated reception centers, rather than the travel time to exit the EPZ.Table 6-6 Summary of Network Performance (Full 10-Mile EPZ, Winter Weekday, Normal Weather)Average Delay (s) 1,203 912 1,462 Average Stop Delay (s) 303 287 317 Average # of Stops 120 93 144 Average Speed (mph) 36.2 35.1 36.8 Average Travel Time (hr) 2.13 1.73 2.48 Vehicle Hours Traveled 49,709 19,006 30,703 Vehicle Miles Traveled 1,797,104 667,669 1,129,435# of Completed Trips 23,433 11,011 12,422 Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates TN 58 SB to TN 30 WB 44.1 TN 30 WB 48.5 TN 68 NB 38.6 TN 29 NB 49.5 TN 305 SB 49.4 TN 291 US 27 SB 43.5 watts bar -sea -Va,5.do 61 6-17 0 ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates Evacuation Vehicles by Hour Crossing EPZ Boundary Fair Weather, Winter Day, Full EPZ Scenario 8000 7000=0 6000 S5000 4000 3000 E 2000 z 1000 0 I E 0 2-mile 300 5-mile* 10-mile 1 2 3 4 5 Simulation Hour 10-mile: 90% ETE = 3:00, 100% = 4:15 Figure 6-4 Time Distribution of Vehicles on the Network (Full 10-Mile EPZ, Winter Weekday, Normal Weather)watts bar -oft -VWS.d=6-18 Q ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates Mobilization and Cumulative EPZ Evacuation 12 100%90%10 80%70%860%FA6 50%Z0 6 Evacuation 00 40%-4 %Mobilization P" 4 30%2 20%10%0 0%0 100 200 300 Time after Evacuation Order Issued (min)Figure 6-5 Comparison of Vehicle Mobilization and Departure Rates (Total Vehicles 12,422)6.8 ETE for Transit-Dependent Special Facilities and Schools The ETE for transit-dependent members of the general public is estimated based on the assumption of a single set of van runs. A pre-existing set of individuals is maintained by the local county emergency response agencies.

In the event an evacuation of the full EPZ is called, van drivers will be dispatched to individual homes. The run is assumed to begin 2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months after the evacuation notice, allowing time for evacuees to prepare. The time sequence would then proceed in the following steps:* 30 minutes for the bus to traverse up to 7 pickup points and load passengers (2:30)* 40 minutes to travel out to reception center, and 10 minutes to unload (3:20)Estimated evacuation times for special facilities, schools, and daycares located in the EPZ are summarized in Tables 6-7 and 6-8. These times are shorter than the 90%and 100% ETEs for the general population.

Facility-specific estimates are based on a three-step time sequence:

(1) mobilization, (2) loading, and (3) travel out of the EPZ.w-t b- -ot -ve,5.doc6 6-19 0 ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates For travel time, average speeds were estimated for the anticipated evacuation route, based on the traffic simulation for the Winter Day scenario.

The simplified stepwise methodology used to determine these estimates provides a typical evacuation time, rather than an upper bound 90 percent or 100 percent value.wats bw eve- .do=62 6-20 0 ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates Table 6-7 ETE for Special Facilities, Watts Bar EPZ (Full 10-Mile EPZ, Winter Weekday, Normal Weather)Meigs L;ounty uetenuon .enter van/Auto 9U JU 1j 44.1 zU 14U Brookewood Nursing Center 88 6/22 Van/Auto 90 30 9 48.5 10 130 Spring City Health Care 138 10/45 Van/Auto 90 30 6 38.6 10 130 Nursing Home Golden Years Retirement Resort 33 Van/Auto 60 15 5 49.5 5 Rhea County Medical Center 50 1/95 Van/Auto 60 15 5 43.5 5 80 waft ba -eW -v3.do 6-21 ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates Table 6-8 ETE for Schools and Daycares, Watts Bar EPZ (Full 10-mile EPZ, Winter Weekday, Normal Weather)_.K. maKer schooi tbb b .S BUSIAUtO 12U bU z 49.4 5 185 Meigs North Elementary 425 7/26 Bus/Auto 120 60 13 44.1 20 200 Meigs County High School 560 9/35 Bus/Auto 120 60 8.5 48.5 10 190 Meigs Middle School 425 7/26 Bus/Auto 120 60 8.5 48.5 10 190 Head Start North 20 4 Auto 60 15 13 44.1 20 95 Watts Bar Day Care 40 2/3 Van/Auto 60 15 15 49.5 20 95 Rhea County H.S 1317 22/80 Bus/Auto 120 60 6 43.5 10 190 Spring City Elementary 579 10/34 Bus/Auto 120 60 5 49.5 5 185 Spring City Middle School 350 6/21 Bus/Auto 120 60 4.5 38.6 5 185 Day Care Facilities Sequatchie V Head Start 39 2/3 Van/Auto 60 15 5 38.6 10 85 Rhea County Preschool 10 2 Auto 60 15 6 43.5 10 85 Rhea County Alternate I 25 1/3 Van/Auto 60 15 6 43.5 10 85 Rhea County Alternate II 21 1/2 Van/Auto 60 15 6 43.5 10 85 Spring City Christian Kiddie 26 1/3 Van/Auto 60 15 3 49.5 5 80 Acad __II-ft.t b. 22 5.d-6-22 Watts Bar Nuclear ARCADIS Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates 6.9 Special Event A special event was modeled for the Meigs County Fair held in Decatur, Tennessee.

Based on local guidance, it is expected that 1,000 would be in attendance plus approximately 50 workers, with approximately 75 percent of these attendees being residents of the EPZ. The estimated additional vehicle count within the EPZ for the special event was, therefore, 300, accounting for 3 persons per vehicle (1 vehicle per worker) and adjusting by 0.75 for the EPZ residents.

It was assumed that all the vehicles would park within walking distance of the fair grounds and that the departure rates would be similar to other transient residents of the EPZ.When the additional vehicles were added to the Full EPZ, Summer Weekend (normal weather) scenario, only the 100% ETEs increased from 4:10 to 4:15 while the 90%ETE remained 2:30. The negligible increase in ETE is an expected outcome given the small amount of vehicles added to the EPZ evacuation demand (less than 3 percent).wats bw -eft -ve6do 6-23 Va ARCADIS Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimates 7. Traffic Control Recommendations

7.1 General

Evacuation simulation results have been reviewed to assess access control locations, traffic management locations, and recommendations for the Watts Bar EPZ. Predicted queuing at high-volume intersections is summarized in Table 7-1. All but two of the intersections listed are located outside the EPZ. Significant queue lengths are predicted only at locations where traffic is approaching a reception center.7.2 Evacuation Access Control Locations Access control measures were not specifically addressed in the conduct of this study. Background traffic within the EPZ was not found to be a significant contributor to traffic congestion during the early stages of evacuation.

7.3 Traffic

Management Locations and Tactics to Facilitate Evacuation The traffic simulation results for Watts Bar indicate that traffic flow will not encounter significant congestion inside the EPZ. The traffic flow maps provided in Appendix F and the data in Table 7-1 reveal locations where additional traffic management could be best deployed to achieve a reduction in ETEs.Table 7-1 Predicted Queuing at Major Intersections (Full 10-mile EPZ, Winter Weekday, Normal Weather)wvnwie Wt I N iu) at New -ngiewooa KO (I N JV) Atnens, I N jignamized bU 7,U24 Green St (TN 30) at E Madison Ave Athens, TN Signalized

<20 6,592 Green St (TN 30) at Ingleside Ave Athens, TN Signalized

<20 5,488 Rhea County Hwy (TN 29) at Hiwassee Hwy Dayton, TN Signalized 620 4,820 U.S. 27 SB off-ramp at Co Hwy 2158 Soddy Daisy, TN Signalized 180 3,540 N Gateway Ave at Roane State Hwy Rockwood, TN Signalized

<20 3,358 Decatur Pike (TN 30) at N Jackson St Athens, TN Signalized

<20 3,248 Rhea County Hwy (TN 29) at Old Washington Hwy (TN 30) Dayton, TN Signalized

<20 2,972 David W Lillard Memorial Hwy at Co Rd 100 Decatur, TN* Two-way Stop <20 2,030 TN 30 at TN 58 Decatur, TN* Signalized 280 1,374*Inside EPZ Boundary WMts b.. -ote 1.d.7-1

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