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o Ec" 2 ' ot5ic" COVER SHEET                                                                                                   w ECP.3.3 CALCUL.ATION MNGP Toxic Chemical Analysis                                                                                           O ECP.2.3 ENC. EVALVATION SUBJECT                                                                                                                             o oTHER Probability Analysis of Trucking Accidents MNGP Toxic Chemical Study Updat                                                                                                            1961-2.2 004 CONT. l.C' NO' PROJECT Northern States Power Company NO or ssis.           916 /.h CUENT PURPOSE / DESCRIPTION The purpose of this calculation is to conservatively determine the probability that a trucking accident on highways near the Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant involving hazardous materials will incapacitate the control room operators and result in a radioactive release in excess of 10 CFR 100 guidelines. The calculation will use probabilistic techniques to determine the probability of such an occurrence and will compare this probability to the acceptance criteria stated in Section 2.23 of the NRC Standard Review Plan.
o Ec" 2 ' ot5ic" COVER SHEET w ECP.3.3 CALCUL.ATION MNGP Toxic Chemical Analysis O ECP.2.3 ENC. EVALVATION SUBJECT Probability Analysis of Trucking Accidents o oTHER 1961-2.2 004 MNGP Toxic Chemical Study Updat CONT. l.C' NO' PROJECT 916 /.h Northern States Power Company NO or ssis.
Agunowc, w g y p,( g ft.VI.SicJ l ,VJL'o.tPoiLATab ( u w T ccm M dis                                                                                                                 ,
CUENT PURPOSE / DESCRIPTION The purpose of this calculation is to conservatively determine the probability that a trucking accident on highways near the Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant involving hazardous materials will incapacitate the control room operators and result in a radioactive release in excess of 10 CFR 100 guidelines. The calculation will use probabilistic techniques to determine the probability of such an occurrence and will compare this probability to the acceptance criteria stated in Section 2.23 of the NRC Standard Review Plan.
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/4TENERA 9407o60294 940630 PDR ADOCK 05000263 P
9407o60294 940630                                                                                                                                     /4TENERA PDR   ADOCK 05000263 P                                                                                       PDR I                           _ - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _                              _ . _ _ _ _        ._ _.
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TENERA-                                                                                                               M-     Date fM 3
TENERA-M -
M


==Subject:==
==Subject:==
MNGP Tnvic chemien1 Annlytic                                                                   Prepared By Checked By ' -      Date       I Prnhnhility Annlycic nf TmeHng Accidente Project:   MNnP Tnric chemieni study 11,ndnte Rev. 1     Sheet 1 of _1L Sheets l A Control I.D. No.1061 ? ? nM 1.0     Pu. rpose The purpose of this calculation is to conservatively deterrrine the probability that a trucking accident involving hazardous materials will incapacitate the Monticello Nuclear Generat!ng Plant (MNGP) control room operator:; and result in a radioactive release in excess of 10 CFR 100 guidelines.
MNGP Tnvic chemien1 Annlytic Prepared By Date f 3
                                                                                                                    /
Date I
NRC Standard Review Plan (SRP) Section 2.2.3 (Ref.1) states in regard to offsite hazards that "the expected rate of occurrence of potential exposures in excess of the 10 4
Prnhnhility Annlycic nf TmeHng Accidente Checked By ' -
CFR Part 100 guidelines of approximately 10 per year is acceptable if, when combined
Project:
            ,with reasonable qualitative arguments, the realistic probability can be shown to be lower." This calculation will demonstrate that this criterion is met for trucking accidents involving hazardous materials in the vicinity of the MNGP.
MNnP Tnric chemieni study 11, dnte n
2.0     References
Rev. 1 Sheet 1 of _1L Sheets l A Control I.D. No.1061 ? ? nM 1.0 Pu. rpose The purpose of this calculation is to conservatively deterrrine the probability that a trucking accident involving hazardous materials will incapacitate the Monticello Nuclear Generat!ng Plant (MNGP) control room operator:; and result in a radioactive release in excess of 10 CFR 100 guidelines.
: 1.                                          U.S. NRC Standard Review Plan, Section 2.2.3, " Evaluation of Potential Accidents," Revision 2, July 1981.
/
: 2.                                          " Truck Trends in Minnesota - An Examination of Truck Traffic and Accidents from 1984 thru 1990," July 1991, Truck and Economic Studies Section, Minnesota Department of Transportation.
NRC Standard Review Plan (SRP) Section 2.2.3 (Ref.1) states in regard to offsite hazards that "the expected rate of occurrence of potential exposures in excess of the 10 CFR Part 100 guidelines of approximately 10 per year is acceptable if, when combined 4
: 3.                                         MNGP Drawing NF-108565-2, Revision B.
,with reasonable qualitative arguments, the realistic probability can be shown to be lower." This calculation will demonstrate that this criterion is met for trucking accidents involving hazardous materials in the vicinity of the MNGP.
: 4.                                          Publication No. FHWA RD-89-013,"Present Practices of Highway Transportation of Hazardous Materials," May 1990, U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration.
2.0 References U.S. NRC Standard Review Plan, Section 2.2.3, " Evaluation of Potential 1.
: 5.                                         TENERA Correspondence File 1961-2.4-013, confirmation letter from C. Dahlin (MN Dept. of Transportation) regarding truck traffic information on Interstate 94 and Highway 10.
Accidents," Revision 2, July 1981.
: 6.                                         NSP Nuclear Analysis Department calculation for MNGP, " Level 1 Sensitivity Studies," Calculation No. II.SMR.90.026,
" Truck Trends in Minnesota - An Examination of Truck Traffic and Accidents 2.
: 7.                                         TENERA Calculation 1934 2.2-005, " Chlorine and Ammonia Probability Analysis," Revision 1, August 12,1991.
from 1984 thru 1990," July 1991, Truck and Economic Studies Section, Minnesota Department of Transportation.
3.
MNGP Drawing NF-108565-2, Revision B.
Publication No. FHWA RD-89-013,"Present Practices of Highway Transportation 4.
of Hazardous Materials," May 1990, U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration.
5.
TENERA Correspondence File 1961-2.4-013, confirmation letter from C. Dahlin (MN Dept. of Transportation) regarding truck traffic information on Interstate 94 and Highway 10.
6.
NSP Nuclear Analysis Department calculation for MNGP, " Level 1 Sensitivity Studies," Calculation No. II.SMR.90.026, 7.
TENERA Calculation 1934 2.2-005, " Chlorine and Ammonia Probability Analysis," Revision 1, August 12,1991.


TENERA                                                                                                           Date  ib .
TENERA


==Subject:==
==Subject:==
MNGP Tnvic Chemtenl' Annlytit                       Prepared By Prnhnhility Annlytic nf Trucking Accirients         Checked By                               -  '
MNGP Tnvic Chemtenl' Annlytit Prepared By Date ib.b Date Prnhnhility Annlytic nf Trucking Accirients Checked By Project:
Date    b Project: MNnP Tnvic chemient sterly findnf e Rev. 1                        Sheet ?  of L4_ Sheets l A Control I.D. No.1%1.9 9.nM
MNnP Tnvic chemient sterly findnf e Control I.D. No.1%1.9 9.nM Rev. 1 Sheet ?
: 8. TENERA Calculation 1934-2.2 006, " Revised Chlorine and Anunonia Spill Estimates," Revision 1, December 11,1991.
of L4_ Sheets l A 8.
: 9.      Monticello Calculation CA 92-012, Attachment 5, "Monticello Toxic Cilemical Study Update - Accidental Chlorine Release Analysis," Preliminary issue.
TENERA Calculation 1934-2.2 006, " Revised Chlorine and Anunonia Spill Estimates," Revision 1, December 11,1991.
: 10. TENERA Calculation 19612.2-001, " Verification of TOXPUFF and TOXEVAP Lotus 1-2-3 Spreadsheets," Revision 0, March 15,1993.
Monticello Calculation CA 92-012, Attachment 5, "Monticello Toxic Cilemical 9.
: 11. TENERA Calculation 1961-2.2 002," Analysis of Toxic Chemical Spills Using the Lotus 1-2-3 Spreadsheet TOXPUFF," Revision 0, March 15,1993.
Study Update - Accidental Chlorine Release Analysis," Preliminary issue.
: 12. TENERA Calculation 1961-2.2-003," Analysis of Toxic Chemical Spills Using the                                   '
TENERA Calculation 19612.2-001, " Verification of TOXPUFF and TOXEVAP 10.
Lotus 1-2-3 Spreadsheet TOXEVAP," Revision 0, March 15,1993.
Lotus 1-2-3 Spreadsheets," Revision 0, March 15,1993.
: 13. U.S. NRC Regulatory Guide 1.78," Assumptions for Evaluating the Hab'tability of a Nuclear Power Plant Control Room During a Postulated Hazardous Chemical Release," June 1974.
TENERA Calculation 1961-2.2 002," Analysis of Toxic Chemical Spills Using the 11.
: 14. U.S. AEC Safety Evaluation for Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant Unit No.
Lotus 1-2-3 Spreadsheet TOXPUFF," Revision 0, March 15,1993.
12.
TENERA Calculation 1961-2.2-003," Analysis of Toxic Chemical Spills Using the Lotus 1-2-3 Spreadsheet TOXEVAP," Revision 0, March 15,1993.
U.S. NRC Regulatory Guide 1.78," Assumptions for Evaluating the Hab'tability 13.
of a Nuclear Power Plant Control Room During a Postulated Hazardous Chemical Release," June 1974.
14.
U.S. AEC Safety Evaluation for Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant Unit No.
1, Full Term Operating License, February 5,1973 (DSS Sequence #HEJ00501).
1, Full Term Operating License, February 5,1973 (DSS Sequence #HEJ00501).
: 15. Monticello Procedures Manual A4, Volume 2, " Chemical Spill / Hazardous Materials Procedures."
15.
: 16. Telecon between G. Kellund (TENERA) and W. Martinson (MN DOT),
Monticello Procedures Manual A4, Volume 2, " Chemical Spill / Hazardous Materials Procedures."
                        " Highway Traffic Data on Highways 25 and 75," April 2,1993.
16.
3.0     Methodolocy The probability that a release from a trucking accident involving hazardous materials would incapacitate the control room operators and result in a radioactive release in excess of the 10 CFR 100 guiduines is determined by the solution of the following equation:
Telecon between G. Kellund (TENERA) and W. Martinson (MN DOT),
" Highway Traffic Data on Highways 25 and 75," April 2,1993.
3.0 Methodolocy The probability that a release from a trucking accident involving hazardous materials would incapacitate the control room operators and result in a radioactive release in excess of the 10 CFR 100 guiduines is determined by the solution of the following equation:
Pm = (Txa) X (Dusx) X (Nraucxs) X (Fuxz) X (Rxec) X (Rod X (Poi)
Pm = (Txa) X (Dusx) X (Nraucxs) X (Fuxz) X (Rxec) X (Rod X (Poi)


  .    .                                                                                                                                            j
j TENERA
:    TENERA                                                                                                       M          Date ydMW


==Subject:==
==Subject:==
_ MNGP Tnvic Chemien1 Annlytic                                                 Prepared By Checked By            -
_ MNGP Tnvic Chemien1 Annlytic Prepared By M
Date       'l!hlW l                   Prnhnhility Annlycie nf TmcHng Accidente Project:     MNGP Tnvic Chemieni Rtudy IIndnte                                     __
Date ydMW
f Rev. 1    Sheet 9    of 14          Sheets l A Control I.D. No.1o619 ? 004 l
'l!hlW Date l
s                                                                                                 ,
Prnhnhility Annlycie nf TmcHng Accidente Checked By f
I where P> m      =              Probability of a release in excess of 10 CFR 100 guidelines per year due l
Project:
i                                              to a trucking accident involving hazardous materials.
MNGP Tnvic Chemieni Rtudy IIndnte Sheets l A Control I.D. No.1o619 ? 004 Rev. 1 Sheet 9 of 14 s
4
I where Probability of a release in excess of 10 CFR 100 guidelines per year due l
;                    Tu          =            Trucking accident rate per mile.
P> m
i                    Dmg        =             Length of highway segment (in miles) where a release in this segment could potentially result in transport to the control room and operator incapacitation. This value is also weighted to account for wind direction probability at any point in the segment.
=
to a trucking accident involving hazardous materials.
i 4
Trucking accident rate per mile.
Tu
=
Length of highway segment (in miles) where a release in this segment i
Dmg
=
could potentially result in transport to the control room and operator incapacitation. This value is also weighted to account for wind direction probability at any point in the segment.
Nrauca =
Number of commercial trucks traveling on highways of concern per year.
Number of commercial trucks traveling on highways of concern per year.
Nrauca =                                                                                                                        '
Fraction of commercial trucks that carry hazardous material.
                                  =              Fraction of commercial trucks that carry hazardous material.
F>az
F>az R3cc            =         Fraction of trucking accidents involving hazardous materials that result in
=
!                                                a release or spill.
Fraction of trucking accidents involving hazardous materials that result in R cc
Roi        =              Fraction of hazardous materials releases that are severe enough to
=
3 a release or spill.
Fraction of hazardous materials releases that are severe enough to
}
}
<                                                potentially result in control room operator incapacitation.
Roi
2 Poi
=
                                =                Probability of exceeding _10 CFR -100 guidelines _ given operator 4
potentially result in control room operator incapacitation.
incapacitation (per shift).
Probability of exceeding _10 CFR -100 guidelines _ given operator Poi
i Each of the above terms will be discussed in detail in Section 7.0 of this calculation.
=
i 4.0       Acceptance Criteria As noted in Section 1.0 above, a probability of exceeding 10 CFR 100 guidelines due to f                                                                                                              4 i                    operator incapacitation resulting from a trucking accident of 10 per year is acceptable
2 incapacitation (per shift).
:                    if, when combined with reasonable qualitative arguments, the realistic probability can be shown to be lower. If this criterion is met, no actions or measures are required to
4 i
-                    protect the operators from this event.
Each of the above terms will be discussed in detail in Section 7.0 of this calculation.
5.0     Assumptions                                                                                                                     i Assumptions used in the development of this calculation are as follows:                                                   j A,
i 4.0 Acceptance Criteria f
[                                                                                                                                                      i I
As noted in Section 1.0 above, a probability of exceeding 10 CFR 100 guidelines due to operator incapacitation resulting from a trucking accident of 10 per year is acceptable 4
i if, when combined with reasonable qualitative arguments, the realistic probability can be shown to be lower. If this criterion is met, no actions or measures are required to protect the operators from this event.
5.0 Assumptions i
[
Assumptions used in the development of this calculation are as follows:
j A,


TENERA                                                                                                                       .
TENERA Date 4M3
I


==Subject:==
==Subject:==
MNGP Tnvic Chemien1 Annlytic                           Prepared By                         Date 4M3 Date          I Prnhnhilitv Annlytic nf TrucHng Accidente         Checked By l
MNGP Tnvic Chemien1 Annlytic Prepared By Prnhnhilitv Annlytic nf TrucHng Accidente Checked By Date I
j Project:     MNGP Tnvic Chemical Study lindnte             __
l l
l Rev. _1      Sheet 4              of 14 Sheets l    A i                       Control I.D. No.1o61.? ?.0n4                                                                                           i
Project:
: 1. Accident rates for combination trucks are representative of all truck types that may carry hazardous materials. The majority of hazardous material transported by truck in quantities sufficient to pose a risk to the MNGP is transported by combination trucks (i.e. large shipments of toxic liquids and gases constitute the primary threat; these materials are typically transported by tanker truck). Also, the accident rate for other truck types is not expected to be significantly different
MNGP Tnvic Chemical Study lindnte j
:                                          from that for combination trucks.
i Control I.D. No.1o61.? ?.0n4 Rev. _1 Sheet 4 of 14 Sheets l A
: 2. All severe releases within a five mile radius of the MNGP are conservatively j                                           assumed to incapacitate the control room operators if the wind is blowing in the direction of the MNGP.
i 1.
;.                                  3. Only Interstate 94 and Highway 10 carry sufficient truck traffic in the vicinity of the MNGP to warrant consideration in the calculation. Justification for this i                                          assumption is provided in the discussion of the Dmx term in Section 7.0.
Accident rates for combination trucks are representative of all truck types that may carry hazardous materials. The majority of hazardous material transported by truck in quantities sufficient to pose a risk to the MNGP is transported by combination trucks (i.e. large shipments of toxic liquids and gases constitute the primary threat; these materials are typically transported by tanker truck). Also, the accident rate for other truck types is not expected to be significantly different from that for combination trucks.
: 4. Reference 4 states that "between 5 percent and 15 percent of all trucks on the
2.
'                                          road at any given time carry hazardous materials." Table 35 of Reference 4 notes
All severe releases within a five mile radius of the MNGP are conservatively j
                                        / that 5.2% of all truck accidents involve hazardous shipments. Consequently, this                   g l
assumed to incapacitate the control room operators if the wind is blowing in the direction of the MNGP.
calculation will assume that 5.2% of all truck traffic carries hazardous materials.
3.
Only Interstate 94 and Highway 10 carry sufficient truck traffic in the vicinity of the MNGP to warrant consideration in the calculation. Justification for this assumption is provided in the discussion of the Dmx term in Section 7.0.
i 4.
Reference 4 states that "between 5 percent and 15 percent of all trucks on the road at any given time carry hazardous materials." Table 35 of Reference 4 notes
/ that 5.2% of all truck accidents involve hazardous shipments. Consequently, this g
l calculation will assume that 5.2% of all truck traffic carries hazardous materials.
?
?
:                                    5. Any release that does not meet the U.S. Department of Transportation definition             ,
5.
!                                            of " severe" is not capable of incapacitating the control room operators. This assumption is supported by the fact that in order to incapacitate the operators, i                                           a release would have to travel at least one-half mile (the closest approach of a
Any release that does not meet the U.S. Department of Transportation definition of " severe" is not capable of incapacitating the control room operators. This assumption is supported by the fact that in order to incapacitate the operators, i
!                                            highway to the MNGP) and would necessarily incapacitate anyone in that one-
a release would have to travel at least one-half mile (the closest approach of a highway to the MNGP) and would necessarily incapacitate anyone in that one-half mile long path. It is doubtful that any release capable of incapacitating l
!                                            half mile long path. It is doubtful that any release capable of incapacitating anyone up to one-half mile away would not meet the definition of " severe."
anyone up to one-half mile away would not meet the definition of " severe."
l
6.
: 6.     The operators did not initiate a plant transient (i.e. a reactor scram) prior to
The operators did not initiate a plant transient (i.e. a reactor scram) prior to incapacitation. This assumption is consistent with operating procedures and operator training. The procedures for handling toxic gas releases (Ref.15] fo not direct the operators to scram the reactor.
:                                            incapacitation. This assumption is consistent with operating procedures and
7.
;                                            operator training. The procedures for handling toxic gas releases (Ref.15] fo not direct the operators to scram the reactor.
The probability of core damage resulting from operator incapacitation is conservatively assumed to equal the probability of radioactive releases exceeding 10 CFR 100 guidelines.
: 7.     The probability of core damage resulting from operator incapacitation is conservatively assumed to equal the probability of radioactive releases exceeding                 ;
i, 8.
10 CFR 100 guidelines.
No outside intervention or assistance occurs for the remainder of the shift l
i,
: 8. No outside intervention or assistance occurs for the remainder of the shift i
following operator incapacitation.
following operator incapacitation.
l r
r n
n L'
L' J
J
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i TENERA
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    ~
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==Subject:==
==Subject:==
  ' MNGP Tnric Chemieni Annlycic                         Prepared By                         Date , M{N'3
  ' MNGP Tnric Chemieni Annlycic Prepared By Date, M{N'3
:                      Prnhnhilitv Annlycic nf TrucHng Accidente           Checked By                   .d    Dats    N/dU Project:   MNGP Tnvic Chemient Study IIndnfe Control I.D. No.1M1M %nM                                           Rev. 1             Sheet - 4   of _1L Sheets l A!
.d Dats N/dU Prnhnhilitv Annlycic nf TrucHng Accidente Checked By Project:
i I           6.0     Desien Inputs l
MNGP Tnvic Chemient Study IIndnfe Control I.D. No.1M1M %nM Rev. 1 Sheet - 4 of _1L Sheets l A!
!                    Design inputs used in this calculation (as noted in Section 3.0) were obtained from the references given in Section 2.0. The specific source and applicability of each design input used will be noted in the appropriate part of Section 7.0 of this calculation.
i I
L 7.0     Calculation As stated above, the probability that a release from a trucking accident involving hazardous materials would incapacitate the control room operators and result in a l
6.0 Desien Inputs l
:                    radioactive release in excess of the 10 CFR 100 guidelines is determined by the solution of the following equation:
Design inputs used in this calculation (as noted in Section 3.0) were obtained from the references given in Section 2.0. The specific source and applicability of each design input used will be noted in the appropriate part of Section 7.0 of this calculation.
!                    Puw = (T a)   3 X (Dmx) X (Nraucu) X (Farz) X (R cc)       3        X (Roi) X (Poi)
L 7.0 Calculation As stated above, the probability that a release from a trucking accident involving l
This calculation will be performed separately for each highway of concern near the MNGP. The results for each highway will then be summed to produce the overall j                     probability for all trucking accidents.
hazardous materials would incapacitate the control room operators and result in a radioactive release in excess of the 10 CFR 100 guidelines is determined by the solution of the following equation:
Puw = (T a) X (Dmx) X (Nraucu) X (Farz) X (R cc) X (Roi) X (Poi) 3 3
This calculation will be performed separately for each highway of concern near the MNGP. The results for each highway will then be summed to produce the overall j
probability for all trucking accidents.
}
}
Each term in the equation, and the source of the value used is discussed below.
Each term in the equation, and the source of the value used is discussed below.
1 Taa:            The trucking accident rate per mile was obtained from Reference 2. This
1
[
[
i                                    reference was used because it provided a' breakdown of accident rates by i                                     road type (interstate or principal arterial) and by location (urban or rural).
Taa:
Interstate 94 is in a rurallocation in the vicinity of the MNGP and passes l
The trucking accident rate per mile was obtained from Reference 2. This reference was used because it provided a' breakdown of accident rates by i
l within approximately one-half milp of the MNGP. Reference 2 provides an overall accident rate of rural interstates, and 1.27per )0.80     per 10'         miles   fortrucks semitrailer on ruraltrucks i
i road type (interstate or principal arterial) and by location (urban or rural).
10' miles         for twin trailer i
l Interstate 94 is in a rurallocation in the vicinity of the MNGP and passes l
interstates. Since semitrailer trucks account for approximately 98% of the I                                     total rural interstate miles traveled by combination trucks in Minnesota 4
within approximately one-half milp of the MNGP. Reference 2 provides 1.27 )0.80 per 10' miles for semitrailer trucks i
i (per Ref. 2), a scaled overall trucking accident rate of 0.81X10 fer mile                 g provides a realistic estimate for ruralinterstate highways. This value will j
an overall accident rate of per 10' miles for twin trailer trucks on rural rural interstates, and i
be used for the overall trucking accident rate on Interstate 94. It should l
interstates. Since semitrailer trucks account for approximately 98% of the I
be noted that in the vicinity of the MNGP, Interstate 94 is quite straight l
total rural interstate miles traveled by combination trucks in Minnesota (per Ref. 2), a scaled overall trucking accident rate of 0.81X10 fer mile g
4 i
provides a realistic estimate for ruralinterstate highways. This value will be used for the overall trucking accident rate on Interstate 94. It should j
l be noted that in the vicinity of the MNGP, Interstate 94 is quite straight l
and flat and could be expected to have an accident rate less than the value used here.
and flat and could be expected to have an accident rate less than the value used here.
i e
i e


TENERA
TENERA N
Date O


==Subject:==
==Subject:==
KfNGP Tnvic Chemien1 Annlytic                       Prepared By   N            Date O Prnhnhility Annlysit nf TmcHng Accidents           Checked By
KfNGP Tnvic Chemien1 Annlytic Prepared By
* Date   'l!lI[@
'l!lI[@
Project: KfNGP Tnvic Chemien1 Study Iindnte Control I.D. No. 1061.99.nN                                   Rev. 1       Sheet 6     of 14 Sheets l A The other highway of concern for this calculation is Highway 10. Highway 10 passes within approximately two miles of the hiNGP and is treated as a principal arterial highway for the purposes of this calculation. Reference 2 provides an overall a cident rate of 1.27 per 10' r'niles and 1.20 per 10'.
Prnhnhility Annlysit nf TmcHng Accidents Checked By Date Project:
miles for semitrailer trucks and twin trailer trucks, respectively, on rural principal arterial highwayy This calculation will conservatively use the l       A 4
KfNGP Tnvic Chemien1 Study Iindnte Control I.D. No. 1061.99.nN Rev. 1 Sheet 6 of 14 Sheets l A The other highway of concern for this calculation is Highway 10. Highway 10 passes within approximately two miles of the hiNGP and is treated as a principal arterial highway for the purposes of this calculation. Reference 2 provides an overall a cident rate of 1.27 per 10' r'niles and 1.20 per 10'.
higher value of 1.27X10 per mile for the overall trucking accident rate for Highway 10.
miles for semitrailer trucks and twin trailer trucks, respectively, on rural A
The accident rate values given above for combination trucks can be assumed to be representative of all truck types that may carry hazardous materials for the following reasons: The majority of hazardous material transported by truck in quantities sufficient to pose a risk to the hiNGP       A is transported by combination trucks (i.e. large shipments of toxic liquids and gases constitute the primary threat; these materials are typically transported by tanker truck). Also, the accident rate for other truck types is not expected to be significantly different from that for combination trucks.
principal arterial highwayy This calculation will conservatively use the l higher value of 1.27X10 per mile for the overall trucking accident rate for 4
Dmx:         The length of highway segment where a release could potentially transport to the control room and incapacitate the operators was determined from Reference 3 by assuming all portions of a highway within five miles of the MNGP could produce such a release. The boundary was set at five miles to be consistent with the guidance given in Regulatory Guide 1.78 [Ref.'
Highway 10.
The accident rate values given above for combination trucks can be assumed to be representative of all truck types that may carry hazardous materials for the following reasons: The majority of hazardous material transported by truck in quantities sufficient to pose a risk to the hiNGP A
is transported by combination trucks (i.e. large shipments of toxic liquids and gases constitute the primary threat; these materials are typically transported by tanker truck). Also, the accident rate for other truck types is not expected to be significantly different from that for combination trucks.
Dmx:
The length of highway segment where a release could potentially transport to the control room and incapacitate the operators was determined from Reference 3 by assuming all portions of a highway within five miles of the MNGP could produce such a release. The boundary was set at five miles to be consistent with the guidance given in Regulatory Guide 1.78 [Ref.'
13]. This is clearly a very conservative assumption since References 10,f 11, and 12 demonstrated that the release of highly incapacitating materials (e.g. chlorine) from a rail accident two miles from the MNGP and in much larger quantities than those transported by truck did not produce operator incapacitation.
13]. This is clearly a very conservative assumption since References 10,f 11, and 12 demonstrated that the release of highly incapacitating materials (e.g. chlorine) from a rail accident two miles from the MNGP and in much larger quantities than those transported by truck did not produce operator incapacitation.
In order to account for the potential effects of wind direction on the probability of release transport to the control room, the Dmx term is weighted by multiplying the fraction of the time that the wind is in a particular sector by the highway miles in that sector. This is performed for each sector that the highway passes through within five miles of the MNGP. The results for each sector are then summed to produce an equivalent length of highway where the wind direction is always toward the MNGP. The sectors of concern were obtained from Reference 3 and are shown graphically in Figures 1 and 2 for Interstate 94 and Highway 10, respectively. Wind direction data from 1984 to 1991 was obtained from s
In order to account for the potential effects of wind direction on the probability of release transport to the control room, the Dmx term is weighted by multiplying the fraction of the time that the wind is in a particular sector by the highway miles in that sector. This is performed for each sector that the highway passes through within five miles of the MNGP. The results for each sector are then summed to produce an equivalent length of highway where the wind direction is always toward the MNGP. The sectors of concern were obtained from Reference 3 and are shown graphically in Figures 1 and 2 for Interstate 94 and Highway 10, respectively. Wind direction data from 1984 to 1991 was obtained from s


TENERA M
TENERA 4'd'M M
Date


==Subject:==
==Subject:==
MNGP Tneic Chamic91 Annlysis                         Prepared By                                                           Date 4'd'M Prnhnbility Annlytit nf TrucMno Accidente           Checked By                                                         M  Date    M Project: _3fNGP Tnvic Chemient Study Undate Control I.D. No. 1061 9 ' 004                                   Rev. 1             Sheet 7                                         of 14 Sheets l A
MNGP Tneic Chamic91 Annlysis Prepared By M
                                            /
M Date Prnhnbility Annlytit nf TrucMno Accidente Checked By Project: _3fNGP Tnvic Chemient Study Undate Control I.D. No. 1061 9 ' 004 Rev. 1 Sheet 7 of 14 Sheets l A
Reference 9 and is tabulated in Table 1.                   Table 1 also shows the
/
                          " equivalent miles" of highway length.
Reference 9 and is tabulated in Table 1.
Table 1 also shows the
" equivalent miles" of highway length.
It should be noted that only Interstate 94 and Highway 10 were included in this calculation since all other roads within five miles of the MNGP are much smaller than these highways and have considerably less truck traffic.
It should be noted that only Interstate 94 and Highway 10 were included in this calculation since all other roads within five miles of the MNGP are much smaller than these highways and have considerably less truck traffic.
The only other roads in this area that could potentially carry significant amounts of truck traffic are Highways 25 and 75. According to traffic data #
The only other roads in this area that could potentially carry significant amounts of truck traffic are Highways 25 and 75. According to traffic data #
supplied by the Minnesota Department of Transportation [Ref.16),
supplied by the Minnesota Department of Transportation [Ref.16),
Highway 25 carries approximately 450 heavy commercial vehicles per day in the Monticello area.       This traffic volume is much less than the combined traffic volume carried by Highways 94 and 10; further, since the point of closest approach of Highay 25 to the MNGP is approximately 3.5 miles, the Daisg term for this highway is small. Also, since the point of closest approach is over three miles from the plant, the potential for operator incapacitation from a spill is quite small, Consequently, since truck traffic on Highway 10 contributes only approximately 15% of the                                                     a total risk, truck traffic on Highway 25 will have an insignificant contribution to the total risk. For reasons similar to those given above, truck traffic on Highway 75 will have an insignificant contribution to the total risk. Although no data on commercial vehicle traffic is available for this roadway, total vehicle traffic on this road is substantially less than that                                           "
Highway 25 carries approximately 450 heavy commercial vehicles per day in the Monticello area.
on Highway 25. Further, as noted in Reference 16, very few heavy commercial vehicles would be expected on Highway 75 due to its size and location.
This traffic volume is much less than the combined traffic volume carried by Highways 94 and 10; further, since the point of closest approach of Highay 25 to the MNGP is approximately 3.5 miles, the Daisg term for this highway is small. Also, since the point of closest approach is over three miles from the plant, the potential for operator incapacitation from a spill is quite small, Consequently, since truck traffic on Highway 10 contributes only approximately 15% of the a
It should also be noted that since other roads tend to carry local traffic, very little hazardous material is transported on them. Further, any hazardous material transported in this area by truck is almost certain to enter the area via Interstate 94 or Highway 10 and would then be accounted for in this calculation.
total risk, truck traffic on Highway 25 will have an insignificant contribution to the total risk. For reasons similar to those given above, truck traffic on Highway 75 will have an insignificant contribution to the total risk. Although no data on commercial vehicle traffic is available for this roadway, total vehicle traffic on this road is substantially less than that on Highway 25. Further, as noted in Reference 16, very few heavy commercial vehicles would be expected on Highway 75 due to its size and location.
Nrauens:     The number of commercial trucks travelling on Interstate 94 and Highway 10 per year was obtained from the Minnesota Department of Transportation [Ref. 5]. Interstate 94 carries an average of 3,325 heasy commercial vehicles per day (both directions) north and south of the Highway 25 interchange at Monticello. Highway 10 carries an average of .l A 700 heavy commercial vehicles per day (both directions) in the vicinity of Monticello.
It should also be noted that since other roads tend to carry local traffic, very little hazardous material is transported on them.
Further, any hazardous material transported in this area by truck is almost certain to enter the area via Interstate 94 or Highway 10 and would then be accounted for in this calculation.
Nrauens:
The number of commercial trucks travelling on Interstate 94 and Highway 10 per year was obtained from the Minnesota Department of Transportation [Ref. 5]. Interstate 94 carries an average of 3,325 heasy commercial vehicles per day (both directions) north and south of the Highway 25 interchange at Monticello. Highway 10 carries an average of.l A 700 heavy commercial vehicles per day (both directions) in the vicinity of Monticello.


4    TENERA
TENERA


==Subject:==
==Subject:==
MNGP Tnvic chemien1 Annlysis                         Prepared By [M                 Date '/MS3 Checked By Date Y[lI[W Prnhnhility Annlycie nf Trncking Accidente Project:   MNGP Tnvic rhemient (;tudy Undnte Rev.- 1    Sheet fL_ of 14 Sheets l        6 Control I.D. No. 1061 ? 9.004 9-According to Reference 16, heavy commercial vehicles are defined as vehicles of 2-1/2 ton size and larger. This category also includes buses.             &
MNGP Tnvic chemien1 Annlysis Prepared By [M Date '/MS3 4
Y[lI[W Prnhnhility Annlycie nf Trncking Accidente Checked By Date Project:
MNGP Tnvic rhemient (;tudy Undnte Control I.D. No. 1061 ? 9.004 Rev.- 1 Sheet fL_ of 14 Sheets l 6 9-According to Reference 16, heavy commercial vehicles are defined as vehicles of 2-1/2 ton size and larger. This category also includes buses.
Consequently, essentially all trucks larger than pickups are accounted for in this calculation.
Consequently, essentially all trucks larger than pickups are accounted for in this calculation.
2 Reference 4 states that "between 5 percent and 15 percent of all trucks jo l                Faz:
2 l
the road at any given time carry hazardous materials." Table 35 of Reference 4 notes that 5.2% of all truck accidents involve hazardous                 6 l
Faz:
shipments. Consequently, this calculation will assume that 5.2%           ' of all i                               truck traffic carries hazardous materials.
Reference 4 states that "between 5 percent and 15 percent of all trucks jo the road at any given time carry hazardous materials." Table 35 of l
The fraction of trucking accidents involving hazardous materials that result
Reference 4 notes that 5.2% of all truck accidents involve hazardous 6
;                Rs in a release were obtained from Table 35 of Reference 4 which documents that for the period 1981 to 1985, a total of 15.2 percent of truck accidents invoMng hazardous materials resulted in a release.
shipments. Consequently, this calculation will assume that 5.2% of all i
The fraction of hazardous materials releases that are severe enough to Rm:
truck traffic carries hazardous materials.
potentially result in control room operator incapacitation was determined l
Rs The fraction of trucking accidents involving hazardous materials that result in a release were obtained from Table 35 of Reference 4 which documents that for the period 1981 to 1985, a total of 15.2 percent of truck accidents invoMng hazardous materials resulted in a release.
as follows: Reference 4, page 95, states that for the period 1981 to 1985, l A
Rm:
                              #13,547 hazardous materials releases were reported to have ycurred on U.S. highways. Of this total,633 were considered to be " severe" which is defm' ed by the U.S. Department of Transportation (Ref. 4, page 96) as l A releases that involve either (1) a fatality or injury caused by the release; (2) property damage of $50,000 or more caused by the release; or (3) a fire or explosion. For the purposes of this calculation, it is assumed that any release that does not meet the definition of " severe" stated above is /
The fraction of hazardous materials releases that are severe enough to l
not caps.ble ofincapacitating the control room operators. This assumption is supported by the fact that in order to incapacitate the operators, a j
potentially result in control room operator incapacitation was determined as follows: Reference 4, page 95, states that for the period 1981 to 1985, l A
release would have to travel at least one half mile (the closest approach of a highway to the MNGP) and would necessarily incapacitate anyone in th9t one-half mile long path. It is doubtful that any release capable of j                               in apacitating anyone up to one-half mile away would not meet the definition of " severe."                                                             A Consequently, the Rm term is calculated as follows:
#13,547 hazardous materials releases were reported to have ycurred on U.S. highways. Of this total,633 were considered to be " severe" which is defm' ed by the U.S. Department of Transportation (Ref. 4, page 96) as l A releases that involve either (1) a fatality or injury caused by the release; (2) property damage of $50,000 or more caused by the release; or (3) a fire or explosion. For the purposes of this calculation, it is assumed that any release that does not meet the definition of " severe" stated above is /
                                                                  /
not caps.ble ofincapacitating the control room operators. This assumption is supported by the fact that in order to incapacitate the operators, a release would have to travel at least one half mile (the closest approach j
l                               Rm = (633)/(13,547) = 0.047
of a highway to the MNGP) and would necessarily incapacitate anyone in th9t one-half mile long path. It is doubtful that any release capable of j
:                  Pm:           The probability of experiencing core damage when operator incapaci'.ation is assamed was determiped previously [Ref. 6L Jts value was deter nined j
in apacitating anyone up to one-half mile away would not meet the definition of " severe."
to be 0.158 per year. This probability acco'mts for 111 potential core I
A Consequently, the Rm term is calculated as follows:
/
l Rm = (633)/(13,547) = 0.047 Pm:
The probability of experiencing core damage when operator incapaci'.ation is assamed was determiped previously [Ref. 6L Jts value was deter nined to be 0.158 per year. This probability acco'mts for 111 potential core j
I


TENERA                                                                                                 d3
TENERA d3


==Subject:==
==Subject:==
MNGP Tnvic Chemien! An91ysic                       Prepared By       NI       Date Prnhnhilitv Annlycic nf Triding Accidente         Checked By             I    Date    NhN Project:   MNGP Tnvic Chemieni (;tudy Undnte l                                                                       Rev. 1          Sheet 0  of 14 Sheets l A Control I.D. No. 1961.? % 004 i                                                                     ,
MNGP Tnvic Chemien! An91ysic Prepared By NI Date I
damage initiating events (e.g. LOCA, Main Steam Line Break, Control l A
Date NhN Prnhnhilitv Annlycic nf Triding Accidente Checked By Project:
Rod Drop). Other accidents that have the potential for offsite releases               ,
MNGP Tnvic Chemieni (;tudy Undnte l
that do not involve core damage are an offgas storage tank rupture and a         g fuel handling accident.     The rupture of an offgas storage tank was evaluated previously [Ref.14],,and determined to fall well within 10 CFR 100 guidelines. A fuel handling accident concurrent with or resulting from i
Control I.D. No. 1961.? % 004 Rev. 1 Sheet 0 of 14 Sheets l A i
operator incapacitation due to a toxic release is considered to be an extremely low probability event that does not require further consideration. Its extremely low probability is due to the small amount of time taken by fuel handling activities in a year, the low probability of operator incapacitation per year, and the low probability of significant
damage initiating events (e.g. LOCA, Main Steam Line Break, Control l A Rod Drop). Other accidents that have the potential for offsite releases that do not involve core damage are an offgas storage tank rupture and a g
* offsite exposures given a fuel handling accident without operator intervention.
fuel handling accident.
It should also be noted that the calculation performed in Reference 6 i
The rupture of an offgas storage tank was evaluated previously [Ref.14],,and determined to fall well within 10 CFR 100 guidelines. A fuel handling accident concurrent with or resulting from operator incapacitation due to a toxic release is considered to be an i
assumed that the operators did not initiate a plant transient (i.e. a reactor scram) prior to incapacitation.       This assumption is consistent with i
extremely low probability event that does not require further consideration. Its extremely low probability is due to the small amount of time taken by fuel handling activities in a year, the low probability of operator incapacitation per year, and the low probability of significant offsite exposures given a fuel handling accident without operator intervention.
!                                  operating procedures and operator training. The procedures for handling toxic gas releases (Ref.15]'do not direct the operators to scram the reactor. Consequently, the use of the 0.158 per year probability value obtained in Reference 6 is appropriate for this calculation.
It should also be noted that the calculation performed in Reference 6 assumed that the operators did not initiate a plant transient (i.e. a reactor i
l                                  For the purposes of this calculation, this probability value of 0.1583 r' is conservatively assumed to equal the probability of exceeding 10 CFR 100 i                                   guidelines. To be meaningful for this calculation, this value must be converted to a per shift basis since for the consideration of this term the i
scram) prior to incapacitation.
release is assumed to have occurred, been transported to the control room intake, and incapacitated the operators. At this point, the probability of
This assumption is consistent with i
;                                  exceeding 10 CFR 100 guidelines during the shift that the operators are incapacitated must be determined. This calculation assumes a 12 hour operating shift and conservatively assumes that no outside intervention or             l assistance occurs for the remainder of the 12 hour shift following operator           !
operating procedures and operator training. The procedures for handling toxic gas releases (Ref.15]'do not direct the operators to scram the reactor. Consequently, the use of the 0.158 per year probability value obtained in Reference 6 is appropriate for this calculation.
i                                  incapacitation. Since operator incapacitation has an equal probability of             l l
For the purposes of this calculation, this probability value of 0.158 r' is 3
4 occurring anytime during the 12 hour shift, then the average amount of vulnerable time remaining in the shift following operator incapacitvion is 6 hours.
l conservatively assumed to equal the probability of exceeding 10 CFR 100 i
guidelines. To be meaningful for this calculation, this value must be converted to a per shift basis since for the consideration of this term the release is assumed to have occurred, been transported to the control room i
intake, and incapacitated the operators. At this point, the probability of exceeding 10 CFR 100 guidelines during the shift that the operators are incapacitated must be determined. This calculation assumes a 12 hour operating shift and conservatively assumes that no outside intervention or assistance occurs for the remainder of the 12 hour shift following operator incapacitation. Since operator incapacitation has an equal probability of i
occurring anytime during the 12 hour shift, then the average amount of l
vulnerable time remaining in the shift following operator incapacitvion is 4
6 hours.
h
h
                                                                              - - ~ ,                               .,,
- - ~,
 
* l TENERA
    *l   .
TENERA                                                                                                                                                                       #


==Subject:==
==Subject:==
MNGP Tnvic rhemien1 Amlytic                                                                                           Prepared By M f-           Date #643 Prnhnhilitv Annlytic nf TrucHng Accidente                                                                           Checked By           -  -
MNGP Tnvic rhemien1 Amlytic Prepared By M f-Date #643 N@
Date  N@
Date Prnhnhilitv Annlytic nf TrucHng Accidente Checked By Project:
Project:   MNGP Tnvic Chemimi Study Updnte Control I.D. No. 1516.1 ? ? 004                                                     _ , .                                          Rev. 1     Sheet   to of 14 Sheets l A In this case, the Poit erm is:
MNGP Tnvic Chemimi Study Updnte Control I.D. No. 1516.1 ? ? 004 Rev. 1 Sheet to of 14 Sheets l A In this case, the Poi erm is:
Poi = (0.158/yr) X (12 hrs / shift) X (6 hrs /12 hrs / shift)/(8760 hrs /yr)                                                         l A cLehr') 14tta.
t Poi = (0.158/yr) X (12 hrs / shift) X (6 hrs /12 hrs / shift)/(8760 hrs /yr) l A cLehr') 14tta.
                                                          = 1.08X10 per shift                       d                                                      u,y gg y wwg Se~ \w 'tt%n doet M ek twld 64-Consequently, the probability per year of exceeding 10 CFR 100                                                                                         3 limits d+ue t accident is:
d
= 1.08X10 per shift u,y gg y wwg Se~ \\w 'tt%n doet M ek twld 64-Consequently, the probability per year of exceeding 10 CFR 100 limits d+ue t 3
accident is:
Interstate 94 probability:
Interstate 94 probability:
v                 s P>im =                                                       (0.81X(04acc/mi) X (0.78 mi) X (3,325 trucks / day) X d
v s
A s                                   /
P>im =
(365 day /yr) X (0.052 haz/ truck) X (0.152 release /haz) X 4
(0.81X(0 acc/mi) X (0.78 mi) X (3,325 trucks / day) X 4
(0.047 OI/ release) X (1.08X10 10CFR100/OI)
A d
                                          =                                                3.08X104 per year #                                                                     A Highway 10 probability:
s
v                                 v             /
/
P>im =                                                       (1.27X104 acc/mi) X (0.54 mi) X (700 trucks / day) X A
(365 day /yr) X (0.052 haz/ truck) X (0.152 release /haz) X (0.047 OI/ release) X (1.08X10 10CFR100/OI) 4 3.08X10 per year #
s                      v (365 day /yr) X (0.052 haz/ truck) X (0.152 release /haz) X s-(0.047'bl/ release) X (1.')8X10" 10CFR100/OI)
A 4
                                                                                                              /
=
                                          =                                                -7.03X104 per year                                                                         )
Highway 10 probability:
                                                                                                        /                             s Total Probability = 3.08X104per year + 7.03X10* per year.                                                                                                   A
v v
                                                                                                          /
/
                                                                      =                    3.78X104 per year l
P>im =
(1.27X10 acc/mi) X (0.54 mi) X (700 trucks / day) X 4
A s
v (365 day /yr) X (0.052 haz/ truck) X (0.152 release /haz) X s-(0.047'bl/ release) X (1.')8X10" 10CFR100/OI)
/
4
-7.03X10 per year
)
=
/
s 4
A Total Probability = 3.08X10 per year + 7.03X10* per year.
/
4 3.78X10 per year
=
l


TENERA f bject: MNGP Tnric chemten) Annlytts                       Prepared By MI                       f Date Md'3 Prnhnhility Annlyck nf TnicHng Accidente       Checked By         0I        Date  Y[Ill91 Project: MNGP Torte Chemteni Situiy 11ndue Control I.D. No.1u1.9 9.nM                                   Rev. 1       Sheet   11 of 1L Sheets l A 8.0     Conclusion The probability of a radioactive release from the MNGP in excess of 10 CFR 100 guidelines due to a trucking accident invoMng hazardous materials                             A than 3.78 is less 4
TENERA f bject: MNGP Tnric chemten) Annlytts Prepared By MI Date Md'3 f
per year. This is well below the acceptance criterian of approximately 10 per year stated in Reference 1. Further, the actual probability is lower than the calculated value due to the numerous conservatisms used throughout the calculation. A further conservatism is the assumption that all " severe" releases will result in operator incapacitation. References 10,11, and 12 demonstrated that operator incapacitation will not occur for a wide variety of hazardous materials released from rail accidents in quantities much larger than those transported by truck. Consequently, no actions are required to protect the control room operators at the MNGP from hazardous materials transported by tmek.
0 I Date Y[Ill91 Prnhnhility Annlyck nf TnicHng Accidente Checked By Project: MNGP Torte Chemteni Situiy 11ndue Control I.D. No.1u1.9 9.nM Rev. 1 Sheet 11 of 1L Sheets l A 8.0 Conclusion The probability of a radioactive release from the MNGP in excess of 10 CFR 100 guidelines due to a trucking accident invoMng hazardous materials is less than 3.78 A
4 per year. This is well below the acceptance criterian of approximately 10 per year stated in Reference 1. Further, the actual probability is lower than the calculated value due to the numerous conservatisms used throughout the calculation.
A further conservatism is the assumption that all " severe" releases will result in operator incapacitation. References 10,11, and 12 demonstrated that operator incapacitation will not occur for a wide variety of hazardous materials released from rail accidents in quantities much larger than those transported by truck. Consequently, no actions are required to protect the control room operators at the MNGP from hazardous materials transported by tmek.
p Wt
p Wt
            ~
~


s TENERA                                                                                                                           N i._
s TENERA N


==Subject:==
==Subject:==
MNGP Tovie chemien1 Annlytit                                                   l'repared Ily     [I       Date f Prnhnhility Annlytic nf Tnicking Accidente                                 Checked Ily       FI-       Date 'th'/'Il Project:   MNGP Tnvic rhemtent Mtudy linante Control I.D. No. Igrit.? 9.nna                                                               Rev. 1.
MNGP Tovie chemien1 Annlytit l'repared Ily
Sheet    12. of .14 Sheets l   6 Table 1 Wind Direction Frequencies and Equivalent Illghway Miles Wind           W!nd Frequency       Illghway Miles                                 Equivalent Miles Hichway       . Sector       in Sector (9M       in Sector                                       in Sector 1 94           SE                   6.4                                               3.8               0.24 -
[I Date f i._
SSE                   7.5                                                 1.4             0.10 '
Prnhnhility Annlytic nf Tnicking Accidente Checked Ily FI-Date 'th'/'Il Project:
S                     9.1                                                 0.4               0W SSW                   7.6                                                 0.3               0.02 v SW                   4.2                                                 0.2               0.01 -
MNGP Tnvic rhemtent Mtudy linante Control I.D. No. Igrit.? 9.nna Rev. 1 Sheet
WSW                   3.9                                                 0.3             0.01 '
: 12. of.14 Sheets l 6 Table 1 Wind Direction Frequencies and Equivalent Illghway Miles Wind W!nd Frequency Illghway Miles Equivalent Miles Hichway
W                     5.6                                                 0.7             0.04 -
. Sector in Sector (9M in Sector in Sector 1 94 SE 6.4 3.8 0.24 -
WNW                   7.0                                                 4.5             0.32 /
SSE 7.5 1.4 0.10 '
Total: 0.78 miles V Hwy 10       E                     4.0                                                   2.9             0.12 -
S 9.1 0.4 0W SSW 7.6 0.3 0.02 v SW 4.2 0.2 0.01 -
ENE                   3.7                                                   1.1             0.04 v NE                   4.4                                                   0.9             0.04 -
WSW 3.9 0.3 0.01 '
NNE                   4.1                                                   1.0             0.04 -
W 5.6 0.7 0.04 -
N                     5.0                                                   1.7             0.09 -
WNW 7.0 4.5 0.32 /
NNW                   9.8                                                   2.1             0.21 -
V Total: 0.78 miles Hwy 10 E
Total: 0.54 miles         l A v
4.0 2.9 0.12 -
ENE 3.7 1.1 0.04 v NE 4.4 0.9 0.04 -
NNE 4.1 1.0 0.04 -
N 5.0 1.7 0.09 -
NNW 9.8 2.1 0.21 -
Total: 0.54 miles l A v
Note: Equivalent Miles are calculated as follows:
Note: Equivalent Miles are calculated as follows:
Equivalent Miles = (Wind Frequency in Sector) X (Highway Miles in Sector) + 100 I
Equivalent Miles = (Wind Frequency in Sector) X (Highway Miles in Sector) + 100 I


TENERA                                                                                                                                                   A
TENERA A
Date f D


==Subject:==
==Subject:==
MNGP Tnvic rhemlent Annlytic                                                                                   Prepared By                           Date f D Prnhnhility Annlytic nf TmeMng Ace 41 ente                                                                   Checked By                     &*    Date N'/##
MNGP Tnvic rhemlent Annlytic Prepared By Date N'/##
Priject: __MNGP Tnric chemten1 Rtudy Undnfe Control I.D. No.1061 ' mi                                                                                                 Rev. 1                   Sheet _.11. of _1L Sheets l 6 Figure 1 imd Sectors of Concern for Interstate 94
Prnhnhility Annlytic nf TmeMng Ace 41 ente Checked By Priject: __MNGP Tnric chemten1 Rtudy Undnfe Control I.D. No.1061 ' mi Rev. 1 Sheet _.11. of _1L Sheets l 6 Figure 1 imd Sectors of Concern for Interstate 94
                                                                                                                                                                          )
)
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NW NC
* NC
/
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                                      ,               l7                            .
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                                                                                                                  'S I   '
l l7
                                                                                                                                                          ' ljl   .-l               % '
! j /,i _
                                                      /!                                     '                                            ,e ;                                    i
l I
                                                          /         , j,''                                                 :i   1     .
' ljl l
                                                                                                                                                          -i
l
                                                                                                                                                                                ,y, i
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i TENERA                                                                                                                                       Prepared By                //<'d                     Date           9/f24
TENERA
//<'d Date 9/ 24 f


==Subject:==
==Subject:==
MNGP Tnvic rhemien1 Annlytic                                                                                                                                                                                             '
MNGP Tnvic rhemien1 Annlytic Prepared By d
Checked By                         d           ~ Date h///I[I Prnhnhility Annlysis,nf Tmeking Accidente Project:       MNGP Tnvic chemien1 Studv Undnte Rev 1                    Sheet __1L of 1L Sheets l A Control 1.D. No.1061 ' 'M Figure 2 Wind Sectors of Concern for Ilighway 10                                                                       j   -
~ Date h///I[I Prnhnhility Annlysis,nf Tmeking Accidente Checked By Project:
MNGP Tnvic chemien1 Studv Undnte Control 1.D. No.1061 ' 'M Rev 1 Sheet __1L of 1L Sheets l A Figure 2 Wind Sectors of Concern for Ilighway 10 j
(4
(4
                  ,shl''*/                                                 /                                                         /
/
                                                                                                                                              ',l e'           !                                          /
,shl''*/
QT*                             a a5, % ,l,j                                                                                                iN
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                /                                                   ,
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QT*
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                      /         /           j                         ;                                          7                                                                      ;            /
/
                                                                                                                  /                         /                                                         *
j j
                                          '/         .
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//
                                                                                                                                                                          /               j
M
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Latest revision as of 03:16, 15 December 2024

Rev 1 to Calculation 1961-2.2-004, MNGP Toxic Chemical Analysis Probability Analysis of Trucking Accidents
ML20073S849
Person / Time
Site: Monticello 
Issue date: 04/11/1993
From:
TENERA, L.P. (FORMERLY TENERA CORP.)
To:
Shared Package
ML20073S848 List:
References
1961-2.2-004, 1961-2.2-004-R01, 1961-2.2-4, 1961-2.2-4-R1, NUDOCS 9407060294
Download: ML20073S849 (16)


Text

!

o Ec" 2 ' ot5ic" COVER SHEET w ECP.3.3 CALCUL.ATION MNGP Toxic Chemical Analysis O ECP.2.3 ENC. EVALVATION SUBJECT Probability Analysis of Trucking Accidents o oTHER 1961-2.2 004 MNGP Toxic Chemical Study Updat CONT. l.C' NO' PROJECT 916 /.h Northern States Power Company NO or ssis.

CUENT PURPOSE / DESCRIPTION The purpose of this calculation is to conservatively determine the probability that a trucking accident on highways near the Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant involving hazardous materials will incapacitate the control room operators and result in a radioactive release in excess of 10 CFR 100 guidelines. The calculation will use probabilistic techniques to determine the probability of such an occurrence and will compare this probability to the acceptance criteria stated in Section 2.23 of the NRC Standard Review Plan.

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Subject:

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Date I

Prnhnhility Annlycic nf TmeHng Accidente Checked By ' -

Project:

MNnP Tnric chemieni study 11, dnte n

Rev. 1 Sheet 1 of _1L Sheets l A Control I.D. No.1061 ? ? nM 1.0 Pu. rpose The purpose of this calculation is to conservatively deterrrine the probability that a trucking accident involving hazardous materials will incapacitate the Monticello Nuclear Generat!ng Plant (MNGP) control room operator:; and result in a radioactive release in excess of 10 CFR 100 guidelines.

/

NRC Standard Review Plan (SRP) Section 2.2.3 (Ref.1) states in regard to offsite hazards that "the expected rate of occurrence of potential exposures in excess of the 10 CFR Part 100 guidelines of approximately 10 per year is acceptable if, when combined 4

,with reasonable qualitative arguments, the realistic probability can be shown to be lower." This calculation will demonstrate that this criterion is met for trucking accidents involving hazardous materials in the vicinity of the MNGP.

2.0 References U.S. NRC Standard Review Plan, Section 2.2.3, " Evaluation of Potential 1.

Accidents," Revision 2, July 1981.

" Truck Trends in Minnesota - An Examination of Truck Traffic and Accidents 2.

from 1984 thru 1990," July 1991, Truck and Economic Studies Section, Minnesota Department of Transportation.

3.

MNGP Drawing NF-108565-2, Revision B.

Publication No. FHWA RD-89-013,"Present Practices of Highway Transportation 4.

of Hazardous Materials," May 1990, U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration.

5.

TENERA Correspondence File 1961-2.4-013, confirmation letter from C. Dahlin (MN Dept. of Transportation) regarding truck traffic information on Interstate 94 and Highway 10.

6.

NSP Nuclear Analysis Department calculation for MNGP, " Level 1 Sensitivity Studies," Calculation No. II.SMR.90.026, 7.

TENERA Calculation 1934 2.2-005, " Chlorine and Ammonia Probability Analysis," Revision 1, August 12,1991.

TENERA

Subject:

MNGP Tnvic Chemtenl' Annlytit Prepared By Date ib.b Date Prnhnhility Annlytic nf Trucking Accirients Checked By Project:

MNnP Tnvic chemient sterly findnf e Control I.D. No.1%1.9 9.nM Rev. 1 Sheet ?

of L4_ Sheets l A 8.

TENERA Calculation 1934-2.2 006, " Revised Chlorine and Anunonia Spill Estimates," Revision 1, December 11,1991.

Monticello Calculation CA 92-012, Attachment 5, "Monticello Toxic Cilemical 9.

Study Update - Accidental Chlorine Release Analysis," Preliminary issue.

TENERA Calculation 19612.2-001, " Verification of TOXPUFF and TOXEVAP 10.

Lotus 1-2-3 Spreadsheets," Revision 0, March 15,1993.

TENERA Calculation 1961-2.2 002," Analysis of Toxic Chemical Spills Using the 11.

Lotus 1-2-3 Spreadsheet TOXPUFF," Revision 0, March 15,1993.

12.

TENERA Calculation 1961-2.2-003," Analysis of Toxic Chemical Spills Using the Lotus 1-2-3 Spreadsheet TOXEVAP," Revision 0, March 15,1993.

U.S. NRC Regulatory Guide 1.78," Assumptions for Evaluating the Hab'tability 13.

of a Nuclear Power Plant Control Room During a Postulated Hazardous Chemical Release," June 1974.

14.

U.S. AEC Safety Evaluation for Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant Unit No.

1, Full Term Operating License, February 5,1973 (DSS Sequence #HEJ00501).

15.

Monticello Procedures Manual A4, Volume 2, " Chemical Spill / Hazardous Materials Procedures."

16.

Telecon between G. Kellund (TENERA) and W. Martinson (MN DOT),

" Highway Traffic Data on Highways 25 and 75," April 2,1993.

3.0 Methodolocy The probability that a release from a trucking accident involving hazardous materials would incapacitate the control room operators and result in a radioactive release in excess of the 10 CFR 100 guiduines is determined by the solution of the following equation:

Pm = (Txa) X (Dusx) X (Nraucxs) X (Fuxz) X (Rxec) X (Rod X (Poi)

j TENERA

Subject:

_ MNGP Tnvic Chemien1 Annlytic Prepared By M

Date ydMW

'l!hlW Date l

Prnhnhility Annlycie nf TmcHng Accidente Checked By f

Project:

MNGP Tnvic Chemieni Rtudy IIndnte Sheets l A Control I.D. No.1o619 ? 004 Rev. 1 Sheet 9 of 14 s

I where Probability of a release in excess of 10 CFR 100 guidelines per year due l

P> m

=

to a trucking accident involving hazardous materials.

i 4

Trucking accident rate per mile.

Tu

=

Length of highway segment (in miles) where a release in this segment i

Dmg

=

could potentially result in transport to the control room and operator incapacitation. This value is also weighted to account for wind direction probability at any point in the segment.

Nrauca =

Number of commercial trucks traveling on highways of concern per year.

Fraction of commercial trucks that carry hazardous material.

F>az

=

Fraction of trucking accidents involving hazardous materials that result in R cc

=

3 a release or spill.

Fraction of hazardous materials releases that are severe enough to

}

Roi

=

potentially result in control room operator incapacitation.

Probability of exceeding _10 CFR -100 guidelines _ given operator Poi

=

2 incapacitation (per shift).

4 i

Each of the above terms will be discussed in detail in Section 7.0 of this calculation.

i 4.0 Acceptance Criteria f

As noted in Section 1.0 above, a probability of exceeding 10 CFR 100 guidelines due to operator incapacitation resulting from a trucking accident of 10 per year is acceptable 4

i if, when combined with reasonable qualitative arguments, the realistic probability can be shown to be lower. If this criterion is met, no actions or measures are required to protect the operators from this event.

5.0 Assumptions i

[

Assumptions used in the development of this calculation are as follows:

j A,

TENERA Date 4M3

Subject:

MNGP Tnvic Chemien1 Annlytic Prepared By Prnhnhilitv Annlytic nf TrucHng Accidente Checked By Date I

l l

Project:

MNGP Tnvic Chemical Study lindnte j

i Control I.D. No.1o61.? ?.0n4 Rev. _1 Sheet 4 of 14 Sheets l A

i 1.

Accident rates for combination trucks are representative of all truck types that may carry hazardous materials. The majority of hazardous material transported by truck in quantities sufficient to pose a risk to the MNGP is transported by combination trucks (i.e. large shipments of toxic liquids and gases constitute the primary threat; these materials are typically transported by tanker truck). Also, the accident rate for other truck types is not expected to be significantly different from that for combination trucks.

2.

All severe releases within a five mile radius of the MNGP are conservatively j

assumed to incapacitate the control room operators if the wind is blowing in the direction of the MNGP.

3.

Only Interstate 94 and Highway 10 carry sufficient truck traffic in the vicinity of the MNGP to warrant consideration in the calculation. Justification for this assumption is provided in the discussion of the Dmx term in Section 7.0.

i 4.

Reference 4 states that "between 5 percent and 15 percent of all trucks on the road at any given time carry hazardous materials." Table 35 of Reference 4 notes

/ that 5.2% of all truck accidents involve hazardous shipments. Consequently, this g

l calculation will assume that 5.2% of all truck traffic carries hazardous materials.

?

5.

Any release that does not meet the U.S. Department of Transportation definition of " severe" is not capable of incapacitating the control room operators. This assumption is supported by the fact that in order to incapacitate the operators, i

a release would have to travel at least one-half mile (the closest approach of a highway to the MNGP) and would necessarily incapacitate anyone in that one-half mile long path. It is doubtful that any release capable of incapacitating l

anyone up to one-half mile away would not meet the definition of " severe."

6.

The operators did not initiate a plant transient (i.e. a reactor scram) prior to incapacitation. This assumption is consistent with operating procedures and operator training. The procedures for handling toxic gas releases (Ref.15] fo not direct the operators to scram the reactor.

7.

The probability of core damage resulting from operator incapacitation is conservatively assumed to equal the probability of radioactive releases exceeding 10 CFR 100 guidelines.

i, 8.

No outside intervention or assistance occurs for the remainder of the shift l

following operator incapacitation.

r n

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i TENERA

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Subject:

' MNGP Tnric Chemieni Annlycic Prepared By Date, M{N'3

.d Dats N/dU Prnhnhilitv Annlycic nf TrucHng Accidente Checked By Project:

MNGP Tnvic Chemient Study IIndnfe Control I.D. No.1M1M %nM Rev. 1 Sheet - 4 of _1L Sheets l A!

i I

6.0 Desien Inputs l

Design inputs used in this calculation (as noted in Section 3.0) were obtained from the references given in Section 2.0. The specific source and applicability of each design input used will be noted in the appropriate part of Section 7.0 of this calculation.

L 7.0 Calculation As stated above, the probability that a release from a trucking accident involving l

hazardous materials would incapacitate the control room operators and result in a radioactive release in excess of the 10 CFR 100 guidelines is determined by the solution of the following equation:

Puw = (T a) X (Dmx) X (Nraucu) X (Farz) X (R cc) X (Roi) X (Poi) 3 3

This calculation will be performed separately for each highway of concern near the MNGP. The results for each highway will then be summed to produce the overall j

probability for all trucking accidents.

}

Each term in the equation, and the source of the value used is discussed below.

1

[

Taa:

The trucking accident rate per mile was obtained from Reference 2. This reference was used because it provided a' breakdown of accident rates by i

i road type (interstate or principal arterial) and by location (urban or rural).

l Interstate 94 is in a rurallocation in the vicinity of the MNGP and passes l

within approximately one-half milp of the MNGP. Reference 2 provides 1.27 )0.80 per 10' miles for semitrailer trucks i

an overall accident rate of per 10' miles for twin trailer trucks on rural rural interstates, and i

interstates. Since semitrailer trucks account for approximately 98% of the I

total rural interstate miles traveled by combination trucks in Minnesota (per Ref. 2), a scaled overall trucking accident rate of 0.81X10 fer mile g

4 i

provides a realistic estimate for ruralinterstate highways. This value will be used for the overall trucking accident rate on Interstate 94. It should j

l be noted that in the vicinity of the MNGP, Interstate 94 is quite straight l

and flat and could be expected to have an accident rate less than the value used here.

i e

TENERA N

Date O

Subject:

KfNGP Tnvic Chemien1 Annlytic Prepared By

'l!lI[@

Prnhnhility Annlysit nf TmcHng Accidents Checked By Date Project:

KfNGP Tnvic Chemien1 Study Iindnte Control I.D. No. 1061.99.nN Rev. 1 Sheet 6 of 14 Sheets l A The other highway of concern for this calculation is Highway 10. Highway 10 passes within approximately two miles of the hiNGP and is treated as a principal arterial highway for the purposes of this calculation. Reference 2 provides an overall a cident rate of 1.27 per 10' r'niles and 1.20 per 10'.

miles for semitrailer trucks and twin trailer trucks, respectively, on rural A

principal arterial highwayy This calculation will conservatively use the l higher value of 1.27X10 per mile for the overall trucking accident rate for 4

Highway 10.

The accident rate values given above for combination trucks can be assumed to be representative of all truck types that may carry hazardous materials for the following reasons: The majority of hazardous material transported by truck in quantities sufficient to pose a risk to the hiNGP A

is transported by combination trucks (i.e. large shipments of toxic liquids and gases constitute the primary threat; these materials are typically transported by tanker truck). Also, the accident rate for other truck types is not expected to be significantly different from that for combination trucks.

Dmx:

The length of highway segment where a release could potentially transport to the control room and incapacitate the operators was determined from Reference 3 by assuming all portions of a highway within five miles of the MNGP could produce such a release. The boundary was set at five miles to be consistent with the guidance given in Regulatory Guide 1.78 [Ref.'

13]. This is clearly a very conservative assumption since References 10,f 11, and 12 demonstrated that the release of highly incapacitating materials (e.g. chlorine) from a rail accident two miles from the MNGP and in much larger quantities than those transported by truck did not produce operator incapacitation.

In order to account for the potential effects of wind direction on the probability of release transport to the control room, the Dmx term is weighted by multiplying the fraction of the time that the wind is in a particular sector by the highway miles in that sector. This is performed for each sector that the highway passes through within five miles of the MNGP. The results for each sector are then summed to produce an equivalent length of highway where the wind direction is always toward the MNGP. The sectors of concern were obtained from Reference 3 and are shown graphically in Figures 1 and 2 for Interstate 94 and Highway 10, respectively. Wind direction data from 1984 to 1991 was obtained from s

TENERA 4'd'M M

Date

Subject:

MNGP Tneic Chamic91 Annlysis Prepared By M

M Date Prnhnbility Annlytit nf TrucMno Accidente Checked By Project: _3fNGP Tnvic Chemient Study Undate Control I.D. No. 1061 9 ' 004 Rev. 1 Sheet 7 of 14 Sheets l A

/

Reference 9 and is tabulated in Table 1.

Table 1 also shows the

" equivalent miles" of highway length.

It should be noted that only Interstate 94 and Highway 10 were included in this calculation since all other roads within five miles of the MNGP are much smaller than these highways and have considerably less truck traffic.

The only other roads in this area that could potentially carry significant amounts of truck traffic are Highways 25 and 75. According to traffic data #

supplied by the Minnesota Department of Transportation [Ref.16),

Highway 25 carries approximately 450 heavy commercial vehicles per day in the Monticello area.

This traffic volume is much less than the combined traffic volume carried by Highways 94 and 10; further, since the point of closest approach of Highay 25 to the MNGP is approximately 3.5 miles, the Daisg term for this highway is small. Also, since the point of closest approach is over three miles from the plant, the potential for operator incapacitation from a spill is quite small, Consequently, since truck traffic on Highway 10 contributes only approximately 15% of the a

total risk, truck traffic on Highway 25 will have an insignificant contribution to the total risk. For reasons similar to those given above, truck traffic on Highway 75 will have an insignificant contribution to the total risk. Although no data on commercial vehicle traffic is available for this roadway, total vehicle traffic on this road is substantially less than that on Highway 25. Further, as noted in Reference 16, very few heavy commercial vehicles would be expected on Highway 75 due to its size and location.

It should also be noted that since other roads tend to carry local traffic, very little hazardous material is transported on them.

Further, any hazardous material transported in this area by truck is almost certain to enter the area via Interstate 94 or Highway 10 and would then be accounted for in this calculation.

Nrauens:

The number of commercial trucks travelling on Interstate 94 and Highway 10 per year was obtained from the Minnesota Department of Transportation [Ref. 5]. Interstate 94 carries an average of 3,325 heasy commercial vehicles per day (both directions) north and south of the Highway 25 interchange at Monticello. Highway 10 carries an average of.l A 700 heavy commercial vehicles per day (both directions) in the vicinity of Monticello.

TENERA

Subject:

MNGP Tnvic chemien1 Annlysis Prepared By [M Date '/MS3 4

Y[lI[W Prnhnhility Annlycie nf Trncking Accidente Checked By Date Project:

MNGP Tnvic rhemient (;tudy Undnte Control I.D. No. 1061 ? 9.004 Rev.- 1 Sheet fL_ of 14 Sheets l 6 9-According to Reference 16, heavy commercial vehicles are defined as vehicles of 2-1/2 ton size and larger. This category also includes buses.

Consequently, essentially all trucks larger than pickups are accounted for in this calculation.

2 l

Faz:

Reference 4 states that "between 5 percent and 15 percent of all trucks jo the road at any given time carry hazardous materials." Table 35 of l

Reference 4 notes that 5.2% of all truck accidents involve hazardous 6

shipments. Consequently, this calculation will assume that 5.2% of all i

truck traffic carries hazardous materials.

Rs The fraction of trucking accidents involving hazardous materials that result in a release were obtained from Table 35 of Reference 4 which documents that for the period 1981 to 1985, a total of 15.2 percent of truck accidents invoMng hazardous materials resulted in a release.

Rm:

The fraction of hazardous materials releases that are severe enough to l

potentially result in control room operator incapacitation was determined as follows: Reference 4, page 95, states that for the period 1981 to 1985, l A

  1. 13,547 hazardous materials releases were reported to have ycurred on U.S. highways. Of this total,633 were considered to be " severe" which is defm' ed by the U.S. Department of Transportation (Ref. 4, page 96) as l A releases that involve either (1) a fatality or injury caused by the release; (2) property damage of $50,000 or more caused by the release; or (3) a fire or explosion. For the purposes of this calculation, it is assumed that any release that does not meet the definition of " severe" stated above is /

not caps.ble ofincapacitating the control room operators. This assumption is supported by the fact that in order to incapacitate the operators, a release would have to travel at least one half mile (the closest approach j

of a highway to the MNGP) and would necessarily incapacitate anyone in th9t one-half mile long path. It is doubtful that any release capable of j

in apacitating anyone up to one-half mile away would not meet the definition of " severe."

A Consequently, the Rm term is calculated as follows:

/

l Rm = (633)/(13,547) = 0.047 Pm:

The probability of experiencing core damage when operator incapaci'.ation is assamed was determiped previously [Ref. 6L Jts value was deter nined to be 0.158 per year. This probability acco'mts for 111 potential core j

I

TENERA d3

Subject:

MNGP Tnvic Chemien! An91ysic Prepared By NI Date I

Date NhN Prnhnhilitv Annlycic nf Triding Accidente Checked By Project:

MNGP Tnvic Chemieni (;tudy Undnte l

Control I.D. No. 1961.? % 004 Rev. 1 Sheet 0 of 14 Sheets l A i

damage initiating events (e.g. LOCA, Main Steam Line Break, Control l A Rod Drop). Other accidents that have the potential for offsite releases that do not involve core damage are an offgas storage tank rupture and a g

fuel handling accident.

The rupture of an offgas storage tank was evaluated previously [Ref.14],,and determined to fall well within 10 CFR 100 guidelines. A fuel handling accident concurrent with or resulting from operator incapacitation due to a toxic release is considered to be an i

extremely low probability event that does not require further consideration. Its extremely low probability is due to the small amount of time taken by fuel handling activities in a year, the low probability of operator incapacitation per year, and the low probability of significant offsite exposures given a fuel handling accident without operator intervention.

It should also be noted that the calculation performed in Reference 6 assumed that the operators did not initiate a plant transient (i.e. a reactor i

scram) prior to incapacitation.

This assumption is consistent with i

operating procedures and operator training. The procedures for handling toxic gas releases (Ref.15]'do not direct the operators to scram the reactor. Consequently, the use of the 0.158 per year probability value obtained in Reference 6 is appropriate for this calculation.

For the purposes of this calculation, this probability value of 0.158 r' is 3

l conservatively assumed to equal the probability of exceeding 10 CFR 100 i

guidelines. To be meaningful for this calculation, this value must be converted to a per shift basis since for the consideration of this term the release is assumed to have occurred, been transported to the control room i

intake, and incapacitated the operators. At this point, the probability of exceeding 10 CFR 100 guidelines during the shift that the operators are incapacitated must be determined. This calculation assumes a 12 hour1.388889e-4 days <br />0.00333 hours <br />1.984127e-5 weeks <br />4.566e-6 months <br /> operating shift and conservatively assumes that no outside intervention or assistance occurs for the remainder of the 12 hour1.388889e-4 days <br />0.00333 hours <br />1.984127e-5 weeks <br />4.566e-6 months <br /> shift following operator incapacitation. Since operator incapacitation has an equal probability of i

occurring anytime during the 12 hour1.388889e-4 days <br />0.00333 hours <br />1.984127e-5 weeks <br />4.566e-6 months <br /> shift, then the average amount of l

vulnerable time remaining in the shift following operator incapacitvion is 4

6 hours6.944444e-5 days <br />0.00167 hours <br />9.920635e-6 weeks <br />2.283e-6 months <br />.

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Subject:

MNGP Tnvic rhemien1 Amlytic Prepared By M f-Date #643 N@

Date Prnhnhilitv Annlytic nf TrucHng Accidente Checked By Project:

MNGP Tnvic Chemimi Study Updnte Control I.D. No. 1516.1 ? ? 004 Rev. 1 Sheet to of 14 Sheets l A In this case, the Poi erm is:

t Poi = (0.158/yr) X (12 hrs / shift) X (6 hrs /12 hrs / shift)/(8760 hrs /yr) l A cLehr') 14tta.

d

= 1.08X10 per shift u,y gg y wwg Se~ \\w 'tt%n doet M ek twld 64-Consequently, the probability per year of exceeding 10 CFR 100 limits d+ue t 3

accident is:

Interstate 94 probability:

v s

P>im =

(0.81X(0 acc/mi) X (0.78 mi) X (3,325 trucks / day) X 4

A d

s

/

(365 day /yr) X (0.052 haz/ truck) X (0.152 release /haz) X (0.047 OI/ release) X (1.08X10 10CFR100/OI) 4 3.08X10 per year #

A 4

=

Highway 10 probability:

v v

/

P>im =

(1.27X10 acc/mi) X (0.54 mi) X (700 trucks / day) X 4

A s

v (365 day /yr) X (0.052 haz/ truck) X (0.152 release /haz) X s-(0.047'bl/ release) X (1.')8X10" 10CFR100/OI)

/

4

-7.03X10 per year

)

=

/

s 4

A Total Probability = 3.08X10 per year + 7.03X10* per year.

/

4 3.78X10 per year

=

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TENERA f bject: MNGP Tnric chemten) Annlytts Prepared By MI Date Md'3 f

0 I Date Y[Ill91 Prnhnhility Annlyck nf TnicHng Accidente Checked By Project: MNGP Torte Chemteni Situiy 11ndue Control I.D. No.1u1.9 9.nM Rev. 1 Sheet 11 of 1L Sheets l A 8.0 Conclusion The probability of a radioactive release from the MNGP in excess of 10 CFR 100 guidelines due to a trucking accident invoMng hazardous materials is less than 3.78 A

4 per year. This is well below the acceptance criterian of approximately 10 per year stated in Reference 1. Further, the actual probability is lower than the calculated value due to the numerous conservatisms used throughout the calculation.

A further conservatism is the assumption that all " severe" releases will result in operator incapacitation. References 10,11, and 12 demonstrated that operator incapacitation will not occur for a wide variety of hazardous materials released from rail accidents in quantities much larger than those transported by truck. Consequently, no actions are required to protect the control room operators at the MNGP from hazardous materials transported by tmek.

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Subject:

MNGP Tovie chemien1 Annlytit l'repared Ily

[I Date f i._

Prnhnhility Annlytic nf Tnicking Accidente Checked Ily FI-Date 'th'/'Il Project:

MNGP Tnvic rhemtent Mtudy linante Control I.D. No. Igrit.? 9.nna Rev. 1 Sheet

12. of.14 Sheets l 6 Table 1 Wind Direction Frequencies and Equivalent Illghway Miles Wind W!nd Frequency Illghway Miles Equivalent Miles Hichway

. Sector in Sector (9M in Sector in Sector 1 94 SE 6.4 3.8 0.24 -

SSE 7.5 1.4 0.10 '

S 9.1 0.4 0W SSW 7.6 0.3 0.02 v SW 4.2 0.2 0.01 -

WSW 3.9 0.3 0.01 '

W 5.6 0.7 0.04 -

WNW 7.0 4.5 0.32 /

V Total: 0.78 miles Hwy 10 E

4.0 2.9 0.12 -

ENE 3.7 1.1 0.04 v NE 4.4 0.9 0.04 -

NNE 4.1 1.0 0.04 -

N 5.0 1.7 0.09 -

NNW 9.8 2.1 0.21 -

Total: 0.54 miles l A v

Note: Equivalent Miles are calculated as follows:

Equivalent Miles = (Wind Frequency in Sector) X (Highway Miles in Sector) + 100 I

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Date f D

Subject:

MNGP Tnvic rhemlent Annlytic Prepared By Date N'/##

Prnhnhility Annlytic nf TmeMng Ace 41 ente Checked By Priject: __MNGP Tnric chemten1 Rtudy Undnfe Control I.D. No.1061 ' mi Rev. 1 Sheet _.11. of _1L Sheets l 6 Figure 1 imd Sectors of Concern for Interstate 94

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Subject:

MNGP Tnvic rhemien1 Annlytic Prepared By d

~ Date h///I[I Prnhnhility Annlysis,nf Tmeking Accidente Checked By Project:

MNGP Tnvic chemien1 Studv Undnte Control 1.D. No.1061 ' 'M Rev 1 Sheet __1L of 1L Sheets l A Figure 2 Wind Sectors of Concern for Ilighway 10 j

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