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{{#Wiki_filter:APPENDIX D Detailed Description of Study Procedure D. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF STUDY PROCEDURE This appendix describes the activities that were performed to compute Evacuation Time Estimates. | {{#Wiki_filter:APPENDIX D Detailed Description of Study Procedure | ||
The individual steps of this effort are represented as a flow diagram in Figure D-1.Each numbered step in the description that follows corresponds to the numbered element in the flow diagram.Step 1 The first activity was to obtain EPZ boundary information and create a GIS base map. The base map extends beyond the Shadow Region which extends approximately 15 miles (radially) from the power plant location. | |||
The base map incorporates the local roadway topology, a suitable topographic background and the EPZ boundary.Step 2 2010 Census block information was obtained in GIS format. This information was used to estimate the resident population within the EPZ and Shadow Region and to define the spatial distribution and demographic characteristics of the population within the study area.Employee, transient and special facility (schools, jails and medical facilities) data were obtained from WCNOC, local/state emergency management agencies and from phone calls to individual facilities. | D. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF STUDY PROCEDURE This appendix describes the activities that were performed to compute Evacuation Time Estimates. The individual steps of this effort are represented as a flow diagram in Figure D-1. | ||
Step 3 A kickoff meeting was conducted with major stakeholders (state and county emergency managers, on-site and off-site utility emergency managers, local and state law enforcement agencies). | Each numbered step in the description that follows corresponds to the numbered element in the flow diagram. | ||
The purpose of the kickoff meeting was to present an overview of the work effort, identify key agency personnel, and indicate the data requirements for the study. Specific requests for information were presented to state and county emergency managers. | Step 1 The first activity was to obtain EPZ boundary information and create a GIS base map. The base map extends beyond the Shadow Region which extends approximately 15 miles (radially) from the power plant location. The base map incorporates the local roadway topology, a suitable topographic background and the EPZ boundary. | ||
Unique features of the study area were discussed to identify the local concerns that should be addressed by the ETE study.Step4 Next, a physical survey of the roadway system in the study area was conducted to determine the geometric properties of the highway sections, the channelization of lanes on each section of roadway, whether there are any turn restrictions or special treatment of traffic at intersections, the type and functioning of traffic control devices, gathering signal timings for pre-timed traffic signals, and to make the necessary observations needed to estimate realistic values of roadway capacity.StepS5 A telephone survey of households within the EPZ was conducted to identify household dynamics, trip generation characteristics, and evacuation-related demographic information of the EPZ population. | Step 2 2010 Census block information was obtained in GIS format. This information was used to estimate the resident population within the EPZ and Shadow Region and to define the spatial distribution and demographic characteristics of the population within the study area. | ||
This information was used to determine important study factors including the average number of evacuating vehicles used by each household, and the time required to perform pre-evacuation mobilization activities. | Employee, transient and special facility (schools, jails and medical facilities) data were obtained from WCNOC, local/state emergency management agencies and from phone calls to individual facilities. | ||
Wolf Creek Generating Station D-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Step 6 A computerized representation of the physical roadway system, called a link-node analysis network, was developed using the UNITES software developed by KLD. Once the geometry of the network was completed, the network was calibrated using the information gathered during the road survey (Step 4). Estimates of highway capacity for each link and other link-specific characteristics were introduced to the network description. | Step 3 A kickoff meeting was conducted with major stakeholders (state and county emergency managers, on-site and off-site utility emergency managers, local and state law enforcement agencies). The purpose of the kickoff meeting was to present an overview of the work effort, identify key agency personnel, and indicate the data requirements for the study. Specific requests for information were presented to state and county emergency managers. Unique features of the study area were discussed to identify the local concerns that should be addressed by the ETE study. | ||
Traffic signal timings were input accordingly. | Step4 Next, a physical survey of the roadway system in the study area was conducted to determine the geometric properties of the highway sections, the channelization of lanes on each section of roadway, whether there are any turn restrictions or special treatment of traffic at intersections, the type and functioning of traffic control devices, gathering signal timings for pre-timed traffic signals, and to make the necessary observations needed to estimate realistic values of roadway capacity. | ||
The link-node analysis network was imported into a GIS map. 2010 Census data were overlaid in the map, and origin centroids where trips would be generated during the evacuation process were assigned to appropriate links.Step 7 The EPZ is subdivided into 22 subzones. | StepS5 A telephone survey of households within the EPZ was conducted to identify household dynamics, trip generation characteristics, and evacuation-related demographic information of the EPZ population. This information was used to determine important study factors including the average number of evacuating vehicles used by each household, and the time required to perform pre-evacuation mobilization activities. | ||
Based on wind direction and speed, Regions (groupings of subzones) that may be advised to evacuate, were developed. | Wolf Creek Generating Station D-1 KLD Engineering, P.C. | ||
The need for evacuation can occur over a range of time-of-day, day-of-week, seasonal and weather-related conditions. | Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 | ||
Scenarios were developed to capture the variation in evacuation demand, highway capacity and mobilization time, for different time of day, day of the week, time of year, and weather conditions. | |||
Step 8 The input stream for the DYNEV II model, which integrates the dynamic traffic assignment and distribution model, DTRAD, with the evacuation simulation model, was created for a prototype evacuation case -the evacuation of the entire EPZ for a representative scenario.Step 9 After creating this input stream, the DYNEV II System was executed on the prototype evacuation case to compute evacuating traffic routing patterns consistent with the appropriate NRC guidelines. | Step 6 A computerized representation of the physical roadway system, called a link-node analysis network, was developed using the UNITES software developed by KLD. Once the geometry of the network was completed, the network was calibrated using the information gathered during the road survey (Step 4). Estimates of highway capacity for each link and other link-specific characteristics were introduced to the network description. Traffic signal timings were input accordingly. The link-node analysis network was imported into a GIS map. 2010 Census data were overlaid in the map, and origin centroids where trips would be generated during the evacuation process were assigned to appropriate links. | ||
DYNEV II contains an extensive suite of data diagnostics which check the completeness and consistency of the input data specified. | Step 7 The EPZ is subdivided into 22 subzones. Based on wind direction and speed, Regions (groupings of subzones) that may be advised to evacuate, were developed. | ||
The analyst reviews all warning and error messages produced by the model and then corrects the database to create an input stream that properly executes to completion. | The need for evacuation can occur over a range of time-of-day, day-of-week, seasonal and weather-related conditions. Scenarios were developed to capture the variation in evacuation demand, highway capacity and mobilization time, for different time of day, day of the week, time of year, and weather conditions. | ||
The model assigns destinations to all origin centroids consistent with a (general) radial evacuation of the EPZ and Shadow Region. The analyst may optionally supplement and/or replace these model-assigned destinations, based on professional judgment, after studying the topology of the analysis highway network. The model produces link and network-wide measures of effectiveness as well as estimates of evacuation time.Step 10 The results generated by the prototype evacuation case are critically examined. | Step 8 The input stream for the DYNEV II model, which integrates the dynamic traffic assignment and distribution model, DTRAD, with the evacuation simulation model, was created for a prototype evacuation case - the evacuation of the entire EPZ for a representative scenario. | ||
The examination includes observing the animated graphics (using the EVAN software which operates on data produced by DYNEV II) and reviewing the statistics output by the model. This is a labor-intensive activity, requiring the direct participation of skilled engineers who possess the necessary practical experience to interpret the results and to determine the causes of any problems reflected in the results.Wolf Creek Generating Station D-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Essentially, the approach is to identify those bottlenecks in the network that represent locations where congested conditions are pronounced and to identify the cause of this congestion. | Step 9 After creating this input stream, the DYNEV II System was executed on the prototype evacuation case to compute evacuating traffic routing patterns consistent with the appropriate NRC guidelines. DYNEV II contains an extensive suite of data diagnostics which check the completeness and consistency of the input data specified. The analyst reviews all warning and error messages produced by the model and then corrects the database to create an input stream that properly executes to completion. | ||
This cause can take many forms, either as excess demand due to high rates of trip generation, improper routing, a shortfall of capacity, or as a quantitative flaw in the way the physical system was represented in the input stream. This examination leads to one of two conclusions: | The model assigns destinations to all origin centroids consistent with a (general) radial evacuation of the EPZ and Shadow Region. The analyst may optionally supplement and/or replace these model-assigned destinations, based on professional judgment, after studying the topology of the analysis highway network. The model produces link and network-wide measures of effectiveness as well as estimates of evacuation time. | ||
* The results are satisfactory; or* The input stream must be modified accordingly. | Step 10 The results generated by the prototype evacuation case are critically examined. The examination includes observing the animated graphics (using the EVAN software which operates on data produced by DYNEV II) and reviewing the statistics output by the model. This is a labor-intensive activity, requiring the direct participation of skilled engineers who possess the necessary practical experience to interpret the results and to determine the causes of any problems reflected in the results. | ||
This decision requires, of course, the application of the user's judgment and experience based upon the results obtained in previous applications of the model and a comparison of the results of the latest prototype evacuation case iteration with the previous ones. If the results are satisfactory in the opinion of the user, then the process continues with Step 13. Otherwise, proceed to Step 11.Step 11 There are many "treatments" available to the user in resolving apparent problems. | Wolf Creek Generating Station D-2 KLD Engineering, P.C. | ||
These treatments range from decisions to reroute the traffic by assigning additional evacuation destinations for one or more sources, imposing turn restrictions where they can produce significant improvements in capacity, changing the control treatment at critical intersections so as to provide improved service for one or more movements, or in prescribing specific treatments for channelizing the flow so as to expedite the movement of traffic along major roadway systems. Such "treatments" take the form of modifications to the original prototype evacuation case input stream. All treatments are designed to improve the representation of evacuation behavior.Step 12 As noted above, the changes to the input stream must be implemented to reflect the modifications undertaken in Step 11. At the completion of this activity, the process returns to Step 9 where the DYNEV | Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 | ||
Fixed routing for transit buses and for school buses, ambulances, and other transit vehicles are introduced into the final prototype evacuation case data set. DYNEV II generates route-specific speeds over time for use in the estimation of evacuation times for the transit dependent and special facility population groups.Step 14 The prototype evacuation case was used as the basis for generating all region and scenario-specific evacuation cases to be simulated. | |||
This process was automated through the UNITES user interface. | Essentially, the approach is to identify those bottlenecks in the network that represent locations where congested conditions are pronounced and to identify the cause of this congestion. This cause can take many forms, either as excess demand due to high rates of trip generation, improper routing, a shortfall of capacity, or as a quantitative flaw in the way the physical system was represented in the input stream. This examination leads to one of two conclusions: | ||
For each specific case, the population to be evacuated, the trip generation distributions, the highway capacity and speeds, and other factors are adjusted to produce a customized case-specific data set.Wolf Creek Generating Station D-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Step 15 All evacuation cases are executed using the DYNEV II System to compute ETE. Once results were available, quality control procedures were used to assure the results were consistent, dynamic routing was reasonable, and traffic congestion/bottlenecks were addressed properly.Step 16 Once vehicular evacuation results are accepted, average travel speeds for transit and special facility routes were used to compute evacuation time estimates for transit-dependent permanent residents, schools, hospitals, and other special facilities. | * The results are satisfactory; or | ||
Step 17 The simulation results are analyzed, tabulated and graphed. The results were then documented, as required by NUREG/CR-7002. | * The input stream must be modified accordingly. | ||
Step 18 Following the completion of documentation activities, the ETE criteria checklist (see Appendix N) was completed. | This decision requires, of course, the application of the user's judgment and experience based upon the results obtained in previous applications of the model and a comparison of the results of the latest prototype evacuation case iteration with the previous ones. If the results are satisfactory in the opinion of the user, then the process continues with Step 13. Otherwise, proceed to Step 11. | ||
An appropriate report reference is provided for each criterion provided in the checklist. | Step 11 There are many "treatments" available to the user in resolving apparent problems. These treatments range from decisions to reroute the traffic by assigning additional evacuation destinations for one or more sources, imposing turn restrictions where they can produce significant improvements in capacity, changing the control treatment at critical intersections so as to provide improved service for one or more movements, or in prescribing specific treatments for channelizing the flow so as to expedite the movement of traffic along major roadway systems. Such "treatments" take the form of modifications to the original prototype evacuation case input stream. All treatments are designed to improve the representation of evacuation behavior. | ||
Wolf Creek Generating Station | Step 12 As noted above, the changes to the input stream must be implemented to reflect the modifications undertaken in Step 11. At the completion of this activity, the process returns to Step 9 where the DYNEV IISystem is again executed. | ||
Transient population data is included in the tables for lodging facilities. | Step 13 Evacuation of transit-dependent evacuees and special facilities are included in the evacuation analysis. Fixed routing for transit buses and for school buses, ambulances, and other transit vehicles are introduced into the final prototype evacuation case data set. DYNEV II generates route-specific speeds over time for use in the estimation of evacuation times for the transit dependent and special facility population groups. | ||
Employment data is included in the tables for major employers. | Step 14 The prototype evacuation case was used as the basis for generating all region and scenario-specific evacuation cases to be simulated. This process was automated through the UNITES user interface. For each specific case, the population to be evacuated, the trip generation distributions, the highway capacity and speeds, and other factors are adjusted to produce a customized case-specific data set. | ||
The location of the facility is defined by its straight-line distance (miles) and direction (magnetic bearing) from the center point of the plant. Maps of each school, medical facility, correctional facility, lodging facility, and major employer are also provided.Wolf Creek Generating Station | Wolf Creek Generating Station D-3 KLD Engineering, P.C. | ||
First, the Census data do not encompass the range of information needed to identify the time required for preliminary activities (mobilization) that must be undertaken prior to evacuating the area. Secondly, Census data do not contain attitudinal responses needed from the population of the EPZ and consequently may not accurately represent the anticipated behavioral characteristics of the evacuating populace.These concerns are addressed by conducting a telephone survey of a representative sample of the EPZ population. | Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 | ||
The survey is designed to elicit information from the public concerning family demographics and estimates of response times to well defined events. The design of the survey includes a limited number of questions of the form "What would you do if ...?" and other questions regarding activities with which the respondent is familiar ("How long does it take you to ...?")Wolf Creek Generating Station | |||
A sample size of approximately 300 completed survey forms yields results with a sampling error of +/-5.4% at the 95% confidence level. The sample must be drawn from the EPZ population. | Step 15 All evacuation cases are executed using the DYNEV II System to compute ETE. Once results were available, quality control procedures were used to assure the results were consistent, dynamic routing was reasonable, and traffic congestion/bottlenecks were addressed properly. | ||
Consequently, a list of zip codes in the EPZ was developed using GIS software. | Step 16 Once vehicular evacuation results are accepted, average travel speeds for transit and special facility routes were used to compute evacuation time estimates for transit-dependent permanent residents, schools, hospitals, and other special facilities. | ||
This list is shown in Table F-1. Along with each zip code, an estimate of the population and number of households in each area was determined by overlaying Census data and the EPZ boundary, again using GIS software. | Step 17 The simulation results are analyzed, tabulated and graphed. The results were then documented, as required by NUREG/CR-7002. | ||
The proportional number of desired completed survey interviews for each area was identified, as shown in Table F-1. Note that the average household size computed in Table F-i was an estimate for sampling purposes and was not used in the ETE study.The completed survey adhered to the sampling plan.Table F-1. WCGS Telephone Survey Sampling Plan.. | Step 18 Following the completion of documentation activities, the ETE criteria checklist (see Appendix N) was completed. An appropriate report reference is provided for each criterion provided in the checklist. | ||
First, the household demographics of the area can be identified. | Wolf Creek Generating Station D-4 KLD Engineering, P.C. | ||
Demographic information includes such factors as household size, automobile ownership, and automobile availability. | Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 | ||
The distributions of the time to perform certain pre-evacuation activities are the second category of survey results. These data are processed to develop the trip generation distributions used in the evacuation modeling effort, as discussed in Section 5.A review of the survey instrument reveals that several questions have a "don't know" (DK) or"refused" entry for a response. | |||
It is accepted practice in conducting surveys of this type to accept the answers of a respondent who offers a DK response for a few questions or who refuses to answer a few questions. | Step 1 Create GIS Base Map 1 Step 2 Gather Census Block and Demographic Data for Study Area Il Step 3 Conduct Kickoff Meeting with Stakeholders Step 4 Field Survey of Roadways within Study Area Il Step S Conduct Telephone Survey and Develop Trip Generation Characteristics Step 6 Create and Calibrate Link-Node A Network Step 7 Deelop Evacuation Regisancenarios 4Step 8 Create and Debug DYNEV II Input Stream | ||
To address the issue of occasional DK/refused responses from a large sample, the practice is to assume that the distribution of these responses is the same as the underlying distribution of the positive responses. | _ _ _ Step 9 I. Execute DYNEV II for Prototype Evacuation Case Figure D-1. Flow Diagram of Activities Wolf Creek Generating Station D-5 KLD Engineering, P.C. | ||
In effect, the DK/refused responses are ignored and the distributions are based upon the positive data that is acquired.F.3.1 Household Demographic Results Household Size Figure F-1 presents the distribution of household size within the EPZ. The average household contains 2.23 people. The estimated household size (2.49 persons) used to determine the survey sample (Table F-i) was drawn from Census data. The difference in these numbers is 10.4%, which is greater than the sampling error of 5.4%. The 2010 Census data indicates that the average household size in Coffey County is 2.38 persons. The estimate of 2.23 people obtained from the telephone survey is used for the household size in this study because it provides a greater number of evacuating resident vehicles, resulting in a more conservative ETE.Wolf Creek Generating Station F-3 KLD Engineering. | Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 | ||
P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Wolf Creek Household Size 1A.5 0 o'I-0 | |||
The distribution of automobile ownership is presented in Figure F-2. Figure F-3 and Figure F-4 present the automobile availability by household size. Note that the vast majority of households without access to a car are single person households. | APPENDIX E Special Facility Data | ||
As expected, nearly all households of 2 or more people have access to at least one vehicle.Wolf Creek Vehicle Availability 50%40%U$0-C 30%0 X 20%0 10%0%0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9+Number of Vehicles Figure F-2. Household Vehicle Availability Wolf Creek Generating Station | |||
-1 to 4 Person Households Distribution of Vehicles by HH Size 5-7 Person Households S5 People *6 People *7 People | E. SPECIAL FACILITY DATA The following tables list population information, as of July 2012, for special facilities that are located within the WCGS EPZ. Special facilities are defined as schools, medical care facilities, and correctional facilities. Transient population data is included in the tables for lodging facilities. Employment data is included in the tables for major employers. The location of the facility is defined by its straight-line distance (miles) and direction (magnetic bearing) from the center point of the plant. Maps of each school, medical facility, correctional facility, lodging facility, and major employer are also provided. | ||
-5 to 7 Person Households Wolf Creek Generating Station | Wolf Creek Generating Station E-1 KLD Engineering, P.C. | ||
Note, however, that only those households with no access to a vehicle -6 total out of the sample size of 300 -answered this question. | Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 | ||
Thus, the results are not statistically significant. | |||
As such, the NRC recommendation of 50% ridesharing is used throughout this study. Figure F-5 presents this response.Wolf Creek Rideshare with Neighbor/Friend | Table E-1. Schools within the EPZ NE-2 I 11.8 I NNE I Waverlv Grade School 607 N Dane St Waverlv 785-733-2551 I 102 14 NE-2 11.8 NNE Waverly Junior & High School 607 Pearson Ave Waverly 785-733-2561 116 17 SE-3 10.9 SSE LeRoy Elementary School 1013 Main St LeRoy 620-964-2208 55 7 SE-3 10.9 SSE Southern Coffey County High School 1010 Main St LeRoy 620-836-2151 70 18 SW-1 4.3 SW Burlington Elementary School 706 Niagara St Burlington 620-364-8882 323 92 SW-1 3.9 SW Burlington High School 830 Cross St Burlington 620-364-8672 262 62 SW-1 3.7 SW Burlington Middle School 720 Cross St Burlington 620-364-2156 270 52 SW-1 4.0 SW Rainbow's End 414 Miami St C(ýey Burlington Cont ubooB 620-364-5633 1 / | ||
Commuters are defined as household members who travel to work or college on a daily basis.The data shows an average of 0.84 commuters in each household in the EPZ, and 51% of households have at least one commuter.Wolf Creek Commuters 50%40% | 12 Wolf Creek Generating Station E-2 KLD Engineering, P.C. | ||
These are now discussed: "How many of the vehicles would your household use during an evacuation?" The response is shown in Figure F-8. On average, evacuating households would use 1.35 vehicles."Would | Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 | ||
Would you?" This question is designed to elicit information regarding compliance with instructions to shelter in place. The results indicate that 79 percent of households who are advised to shelter in place would do so; the remaining 21 percent would choose to evacuate the area. Note the baseline | |||
Table E-2. Medical Facilities within the EPZ I NE-2 I I 11.4 I NNE II Sunset Manor 1 128 S Pearson Ave II Waverlv 1785-733-27441 | |||
That is, asking a population to shelter in place now and then to evacuate after a specified period of time. Results indicate that 77 percent of households would follow instructions and delay the start of evacuation until so advised, while the balance of 23 percent would choose to begin evacuating immediately. | -- I | ||
F.3.3 Time Distribution Results The survey asked several questions about the amount of time it takes to perform certain pre-evacuation activities. | * 42 1 32 1 6 I 4-26 I | ||
These activities involve actions taken by residents during the course of their day-to-day lives. Thus, the answers fall within the realm of the responder's experience. | & | ||
0 ,4 1 | |||
I SW-1 I 3.7 1 SW I Coffey Health System 1801 N4th St I | |||
I Burlington I | |||
1 620-364-2121 I | |||
I 36 I 14 1 8 1 3 13 1 SW-2 3.7 SW Life Care Center 7 77 62 12 50 0 CAj I A I rL... A . | |||
A 1 36 22 22 0 0 KLD Engineering, P.C. | |||
Wolf Creek Generating Station E-3 E-3 KLD Engineering, P.C. | |||
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 | |||
Table E-3. Major Employers within the EPZ I CCL I I 0.0 1 - | |||
I I Co.uI I | |||
1550 Oxen Ln IBurlington 1620-362-8831 1 700 1 50% 350 1 I | |||
County 110 S6th St Burlington 620-364-2191 150 30% | |||
Wolf Creek Generating Station E-4 KLD Engineering, P.C. | |||
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 | |||
Table E-4. Lodging Facilities within the EPZ II SW-1 1 3.4 I SW II Countrv Haven Inn I 207 Cross St I I Burlington | |||
- | |||
II 620-364-8260 II 48 I 12 I Note: Based on discussions with the Coffey County EMO, all people visiting the Coffey County Lake and the John Redmond Reservoir are local residents who have already been counted in the permanent resident population discussed in Section 3.1. | |||
Wolf Creek Generating Station E-5 KLD Engineering, P.C. | |||
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 | |||
Table E-5. Correctional Facilities within the EPZ Wolf Creek Generating Station E-6 KLD Engineering, P.C. | |||
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 | |||
Figure E-1. Schools within the EPZ Wolf Creek Generating Station E-7 KLD Engineering, P.C. | |||
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 | |||
Figure E-2. Medical Facilities within the EPZ E-8 KLD Engineering, P.C. | |||
Wolf Creek Generating Station E-8 KLD Engineering, P.C. | |||
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 | |||
Figure E-3. Major Employers within the EPZ KLD Engineering, P.C. | |||
Wolf Creek Generating Station E-9 E-9 KLD Engineering, P.C. | |||
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 | |||
Figure E-4. Lodging Facilities within the EPZ Wolf Creek Generating Station E-1O KLD Engineering, P.C. | |||
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 | |||
Figure E-5. Correctional Facilities within the EPZ KLD Engineering, P.C. | |||
Wolf Creek Generating Station E-11 E-11 KLD Engineering, P.C. | |||
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 | |||
APPENDIX F Telephone Survey | |||
F. TELEPHONE SURVEY F.1 Introduction The development of evacuation time estimates for the WCGS EPZ requires the identification of travel patterns, car ownership and household size of the population within the EPZ. | |||
Demographic information can be obtained from Census data. The use of this data has several limitations when applied to emergency planning. First, the Census data do not encompass the range of information needed to identify the time required for preliminary activities (mobilization) that must be undertaken prior to evacuating the area. Secondly, Census data do not contain attitudinal responses needed from the population of the EPZ and consequently may not accurately represent the anticipated behavioral characteristics of the evacuating populace. | |||
These concerns are addressed by conducting a telephone survey of a representative sample of the EPZ population. The survey is designed to elicit information from the public concerning family demographics and estimates of response times to well defined events. The design of the survey includes a limited number of questions of the form "What would you do if ...?" and other questions regarding activities with which the respondent is familiar ("How long does it take you to ...?") | |||
Wolf Creek Generating Station F-1 KLD Engineering, P.C. | |||
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 | |||
F.2 Survey Instrument and Sampling Plan Attachment A presents the final survey instrument used in this study. A draft of the instrument was submitted to stakeholders for comment. Comments were received and the survey instrument was modified accordingly, prior to conducting the survey. | |||
Following the completion of the instrument, a sampling plan was developed. A sample size of approximately 300 completed survey forms yields results with a sampling error of +/-5.4% at the 95% confidence level. The sample must be drawn from the EPZ population. Consequently, a list of zip codes in the EPZ was developed using GIS software. This list is shown in Table F-1. Along with each zip code, an estimate of the population and number of households in each area was determined by overlaying Census data and the EPZ boundary, again using GIS software. The proportional number of desired completed survey interviews for each area was identified, as shown in Table F-1. Note that the average household size computed in Table F-i was an estimate for sampling purposes and was not used in the ETE study. | |||
The completed survey adhered to the sampling plan. | |||
Table F-1. WCGS Telephone Survey Sampling Plan | |||
. Co. "" (", , . . . p.l 66093 579 171 13 66839 4,056 1,671 126 66852 586 248 19 66854 804 340 26 66856 1,633 649 49 66857 956 391 29 66871 1,308 516 39 Average Household Size: 2.49 Wolf Creek Generating Station F-2 KLD Engineering, P.C. | |||
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 | |||
F.3 Survey Results The results of the survey fall into two categories. First, the household demographics of the area can be identified. Demographic information includes such factors as household size, automobile ownership, and automobile availability. The distributions of the time to perform certain pre-evacuation activities are the second category of survey results. These data are processed to develop the trip generation distributions used in the evacuation modeling effort, as discussed in Section 5. | |||
A review of the survey instrument reveals that several questions have a "don't know" (DK) or "refused" entry for a response. It is accepted practice in conducting surveys of this type to accept the answers of a respondent who offers a DK response for a few questions or who refuses to answer a few questions. To address the issue of occasional DK/refused responses from a large sample, the practice is to assume that the distribution of these responses is the same as the underlying distribution of the positive responses. In effect, the DK/refused responses are ignored and the distributions are based upon the positive data that is acquired. | |||
F.3.1 Household Demographic Results Household Size Figure F-1 presents the distribution of household size within the EPZ. The average household contains 2.23 people. The estimated household size (2.49 persons) used to determine the survey sample (Table F-i) was drawn from Census data. The difference in these numbers is 10.4%, which is greater than the sampling error of 5.4%. The 2010 Census data indicates that the average household size in Coffey County is 2.38 persons. The estimate of 2.23 people obtained from the telephone survey is used for the household size in this study because it provides a greater number of evacuating resident vehicles, resulting in a more conservative ETE. | |||
Wolf Creek Generating Station F-3 KLD Engineering. P.C. | |||
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 | |||
Wolf Creek Household Size 60% | |||
1A 50% | |||
.5 0 40% | |||
30% | |||
o | |||
'I-0 20% | |||
10% | |||
0% | |||
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Household Size Figure F-1. Household Size in the EPZ Automobile Ownership The average number of automobiles available per household in the EPZ is 2.32. It should be noted that approximately 1.7 percent of households do not have access to an automobile. The distribution of automobile ownership is presented in Figure F-2. Figure F-3 and Figure F-4 present the automobile availability by household size. Note that the vast majority of households without access to a car are single person households. As expected, nearly all households of 2 or more people have access to at least one vehicle. | |||
Wolf Creek Vehicle Availability 50% | |||
40% | |||
U$ | |||
0 | |||
-C 30% | |||
0 X 20% | |||
0 10% | |||
0% | |||
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9+ | |||
Number of Vehicles Figure F-2. Household Vehicle Availability Wolf Creek Generating Station F-4 KLD Engineering, P.C. | |||
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 | |||
Distribution of Vehicles by HH Size 1-4 Person Households 1Person *2 People 13 People M4 People 100% | |||
80% | |||
0 60% | |||
0 x 40% | |||
20% | |||
0% "AIJ , A 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9+ | |||
Vehicles Figure F-3. Vehicle Availability - 1 to 4 Person Households Distribution of Vehicles by HH Size 5-7 Person Households S5 People *6 People *7 People 100% | |||
0n 80% I | |||
*0 60% | |||
0 40% | |||
20% j M I 0% | |||
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9+ | |||
Vehicles Figure F-4. Vehicle Availability - 5 to 7 Person Households Wolf Creek Generating Station F-5 KLD Engineering, P.C. | |||
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 | |||
Ridesharing 83% of the households surveyed who do not own a vehicle responded that they would share a ride with a neighbor, relative, or friend if a car was not available to them when advised to evacuate in the event of an emergency. Note, however, that only those households with no access to a vehicle - 6 total out of the sample size of 300 - answered this question. Thus, the results are not statistically significant. As such, the NRC recommendation of 50% ridesharing is used throughout this study. Figure F-5 presents this response. | |||
Wolf Creek Rideshare with Neighbor/Friend 100% | |||
80% | |||
0 60% | |||
InI 0 | |||
.- 40% | |||
0 20% | |||
0% | |||
Yes No Figure F-5. Household Ridesharing Preference Wolf Creek Generating Station F-6 KLD Engineering, P.C. | |||
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 | |||
Commuters Figure F-6 presents the distribution of the number of commuters in each household. | |||
Commuters are defined as household members who travel to work or college on a daily basis. | |||
The data shows an average of 0.84 commuters in each household in the EPZ, and 51% of households have at least one commuter. | |||
Wolf Creek Commuters 50% | |||
40% | |||
320% | |||
0 4x20% | |||
0 10% | |||
0% J__ I 0 1 2 3 4+ | |||
Number of Commuters Figure F-6. Commuters in Households in the EPZ Wolf Creek Generating Station F-7 F-7 KID Engineering, P.c. | |||
KLD Engineering, P.C. | |||
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 | |||
Commuter Travel Modes Figure F-7 presents the mode of travel that commuters use on a daily basis. The vast majority of commuters use their private automobiles to travel to work. The data shows an average of 1.06 employees per vehicle, assuming 2 people per vehicle - on average - for carpools. | |||
I- Wolf Creek Travel Mode to Work 100% | |||
91.4% | |||
80% | |||
60% | |||
E 0 40% | |||
20% | |||
3.3% D5.3% | |||
0.0% | |||
0% | |||
Bus Walk/Bike Drive Alone Carpool (2+) | |||
Mode of Tiravel Figure F-7. Modes of Travel in the EPZ F.3.2 Evacuation Response Several questions were asked to gauge the population's response to an emergency. These are now discussed: | |||
"How many of the vehicles would your household use during an evacuation?"The response is shown in Figure F-8. On average, evacuating households would use 1.35 vehicles. | |||
"Would yourfamily await the return of other family members prior to evacuating the area?" | |||
Of the survey participants who responded, 44 percent said they would await the return of other family members before evacuating and 56 percent indicated that they would not await the return of other family members. | |||
"Ifyou had a household pet, would you take your pet with you if you were asked to evacuate the area?" Based on the responses to the survey, 26 percent of households do not have a family pet. Of the households with pets, 80 percent of them indicated that they would take their pets with them, as shown in Figure F-9. | |||
Wolf Creek Generating Station F-8 KLD Engineering, P.C. | |||
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 | |||
Vehicles Used for Evacuation 100% | |||
80% | |||
60% | |||
0 a-0-A 40% | |||
0 | |||
"= | |||
20% | |||
0% | |||
0 1 2 3 Number of Vehicles 4 5 Figure F-8. Number of Vehicles Used for Evacuation Households Evacuating with Pets 100% | |||
80% | |||
0A 60% | |||
0 0 40% | |||
20% | |||
0% I Yes No Figure F-9. Households Evacuating with Pets Wolf Creek Generating Station F-9 KLD Engineering, P.C. | |||
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 | |||
"Emergency officials advise you to take shelter at home in an emergency. Would you?" This question is designed to elicit information regarding compliance with instructions to shelter in place. The results indicate that 79 percent of households who are advised to shelter in place would do so; the remaining 21 percent would choose to evacuate the area. Note the baseline ETE study assumes 20 percent of households will not comply with the shelter advisory, as per Section 2.5.2 of NUREG/CR-7002. Thus, the data obtained above is in good agreement with the federal guidance. | |||
"Emergency officials advise you to take shelter at home now in an emergency and possibly evacuate later while people in other areas are advised to evacuate now. Would you?" This question is designed to elicit information specifically related to the possibility of a staged evacuation. That is, asking a population to shelter in place now and then to evacuate after a specified period of time. Results indicate that 77 percent of households would follow instructions and delay the start of evacuation until so advised, while the balance of 23 percent would choose to begin evacuating immediately. | |||
F.3.3 Time Distribution Results The survey asked several questions about the amount of time it takes to perform certain pre-evacuation activities. These activities involve actions taken by residents during the course of their day-to-day lives. Thus, the answers fall within the realm of the responder's experience. | |||
The mobilization distributions provided below are the result of having applied the analysis described in Section 5.4.1 on the component activities of the mobilization. | The mobilization distributions provided below are the result of having applied the analysis described in Section 5.4.1 on the component activities of the mobilization. | ||
Wolf Creek Generating Station F-10 KLD Engineering, P.C. | |||
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 | |||
"How long does it take the commuter to complete preparationfor leaving work?" Figure F-10 presents the cumulative distribution; in all cases, the activity is completed by 90 minutes. | |||
Ninety-three percent can leave within 30 minutes. | |||
Time to Prepare to Leave Work 100% | |||
80% | |||
E E 60% | |||
0 40% | |||
20% | |||
0% | |||
0 15 30 45 60 75 90 Preparation Time (min) | |||
Figure F-10. lime Required to Prepare to Leave Work/School "How long would it take the commuter to travel home?" Figure F-11 presents the work to home travel time for the EPZ. About 94 percent of commuters can arrive home within 60 minutes of leaving work; all within 120 minutes. | |||
Work to Home Travel 100% | |||
80% | |||
60% | |||
E 0 | |||
40% | |||
20% | |||
0% | |||
0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 Travel Time (min) | |||
Figure F-l1. Work to Home Travel Time Wolf Creek Generating Station F-11 KLD Engineering, P.C. | |||
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 | |||
"How long would it take the family to pack clothing, secure the house, and load the car?" | |||
Figure F-12 presents the time required to prepare for leaving on an evacuation trip. In many ways this activity mimics a family's preparation for a short holiday or weekend away from home. Hence, the responses represent the experience of the responder in performing similar activities. | |||
The distribution shown in Figure F-12 has a long "tail." About 91 percent of households can be ready to leave home within 60 minutes; the remaining households require up to an additional 75 minutes. | |||
Time to Prepare to Leave Home 100% | |||
#A 80% | |||
0 | |||
Revision as of 16:56, 11 November 2019
ML13002A416 | |
Person / Time | |
---|---|
Site: | Wolf Creek |
Issue date: | 10/31/2012 |
From: | KLD Engineering, PC |
To: | Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation, Wolf Creek |
References | |
RA 12-0126 KLD TR-522, Rev 1 | |
Download: ML13002A416 (97) | |
Text
APPENDIX D Detailed Description of Study Procedure
D. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF STUDY PROCEDURE This appendix describes the activities that were performed to compute Evacuation Time Estimates. The individual steps of this effort are represented as a flow diagram in Figure D-1.
Each numbered step in the description that follows corresponds to the numbered element in the flow diagram.
Step 1 The first activity was to obtain EPZ boundary information and create a GIS base map. The base map extends beyond the Shadow Region which extends approximately 15 miles (radially) from the power plant location. The base map incorporates the local roadway topology, a suitable topographic background and the EPZ boundary.
Step 2 2010 Census block information was obtained in GIS format. This information was used to estimate the resident population within the EPZ and Shadow Region and to define the spatial distribution and demographic characteristics of the population within the study area.
Employee, transient and special facility (schools, jails and medical facilities) data were obtained from WCNOC, local/state emergency management agencies and from phone calls to individual facilities.
Step 3 A kickoff meeting was conducted with major stakeholders (state and county emergency managers, on-site and off-site utility emergency managers, local and state law enforcement agencies). The purpose of the kickoff meeting was to present an overview of the work effort, identify key agency personnel, and indicate the data requirements for the study. Specific requests for information were presented to state and county emergency managers. Unique features of the study area were discussed to identify the local concerns that should be addressed by the ETE study.
Step4 Next, a physical survey of the roadway system in the study area was conducted to determine the geometric properties of the highway sections, the channelization of lanes on each section of roadway, whether there are any turn restrictions or special treatment of traffic at intersections, the type and functioning of traffic control devices, gathering signal timings for pre-timed traffic signals, and to make the necessary observations needed to estimate realistic values of roadway capacity.
StepS5 A telephone survey of households within the EPZ was conducted to identify household dynamics, trip generation characteristics, and evacuation-related demographic information of the EPZ population. This information was used to determine important study factors including the average number of evacuating vehicles used by each household, and the time required to perform pre-evacuation mobilization activities.
Wolf Creek Generating Station D-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Step 6 A computerized representation of the physical roadway system, called a link-node analysis network, was developed using the UNITES software developed by KLD. Once the geometry of the network was completed, the network was calibrated using the information gathered during the road survey (Step 4). Estimates of highway capacity for each link and other link-specific characteristics were introduced to the network description. Traffic signal timings were input accordingly. The link-node analysis network was imported into a GIS map. 2010 Census data were overlaid in the map, and origin centroids where trips would be generated during the evacuation process were assigned to appropriate links.
Step 7 The EPZ is subdivided into 22 subzones. Based on wind direction and speed, Regions (groupings of subzones) that may be advised to evacuate, were developed.
The need for evacuation can occur over a range of time-of-day, day-of-week, seasonal and weather-related conditions. Scenarios were developed to capture the variation in evacuation demand, highway capacity and mobilization time, for different time of day, day of the week, time of year, and weather conditions.
Step 8 The input stream for the DYNEV II model, which integrates the dynamic traffic assignment and distribution model, DTRAD, with the evacuation simulation model, was created for a prototype evacuation case - the evacuation of the entire EPZ for a representative scenario.
Step 9 After creating this input stream, the DYNEV II System was executed on the prototype evacuation case to compute evacuating traffic routing patterns consistent with the appropriate NRC guidelines. DYNEV II contains an extensive suite of data diagnostics which check the completeness and consistency of the input data specified. The analyst reviews all warning and error messages produced by the model and then corrects the database to create an input stream that properly executes to completion.
The model assigns destinations to all origin centroids consistent with a (general) radial evacuation of the EPZ and Shadow Region. The analyst may optionally supplement and/or replace these model-assigned destinations, based on professional judgment, after studying the topology of the analysis highway network. The model produces link and network-wide measures of effectiveness as well as estimates of evacuation time.
Step 10 The results generated by the prototype evacuation case are critically examined. The examination includes observing the animated graphics (using the EVAN software which operates on data produced by DYNEV II) and reviewing the statistics output by the model. This is a labor-intensive activity, requiring the direct participation of skilled engineers who possess the necessary practical experience to interpret the results and to determine the causes of any problems reflected in the results.
Wolf Creek Generating Station D-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Essentially, the approach is to identify those bottlenecks in the network that represent locations where congested conditions are pronounced and to identify the cause of this congestion. This cause can take many forms, either as excess demand due to high rates of trip generation, improper routing, a shortfall of capacity, or as a quantitative flaw in the way the physical system was represented in the input stream. This examination leads to one of two conclusions:
- The results are satisfactory; or
- The input stream must be modified accordingly.
This decision requires, of course, the application of the user's judgment and experience based upon the results obtained in previous applications of the model and a comparison of the results of the latest prototype evacuation case iteration with the previous ones. If the results are satisfactory in the opinion of the user, then the process continues with Step 13. Otherwise, proceed to Step 11.
Step 11 There are many "treatments" available to the user in resolving apparent problems. These treatments range from decisions to reroute the traffic by assigning additional evacuation destinations for one or more sources, imposing turn restrictions where they can produce significant improvements in capacity, changing the control treatment at critical intersections so as to provide improved service for one or more movements, or in prescribing specific treatments for channelizing the flow so as to expedite the movement of traffic along major roadway systems. Such "treatments" take the form of modifications to the original prototype evacuation case input stream. All treatments are designed to improve the representation of evacuation behavior.
Step 12 As noted above, the changes to the input stream must be implemented to reflect the modifications undertaken in Step 11. At the completion of this activity, the process returns to Step 9 where the DYNEV IISystem is again executed.
Step 13 Evacuation of transit-dependent evacuees and special facilities are included in the evacuation analysis. Fixed routing for transit buses and for school buses, ambulances, and other transit vehicles are introduced into the final prototype evacuation case data set. DYNEV II generates route-specific speeds over time for use in the estimation of evacuation times for the transit dependent and special facility population groups.
Step 14 The prototype evacuation case was used as the basis for generating all region and scenario-specific evacuation cases to be simulated. This process was automated through the UNITES user interface. For each specific case, the population to be evacuated, the trip generation distributions, the highway capacity and speeds, and other factors are adjusted to produce a customized case-specific data set.
Wolf Creek Generating Station D-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Step 15 All evacuation cases are executed using the DYNEV II System to compute ETE. Once results were available, quality control procedures were used to assure the results were consistent, dynamic routing was reasonable, and traffic congestion/bottlenecks were addressed properly.
Step 16 Once vehicular evacuation results are accepted, average travel speeds for transit and special facility routes were used to compute evacuation time estimates for transit-dependent permanent residents, schools, hospitals, and other special facilities.
Step 17 The simulation results are analyzed, tabulated and graphed. The results were then documented, as required by NUREG/CR-7002.
Step 18 Following the completion of documentation activities, the ETE criteria checklist (see Appendix N) was completed. An appropriate report reference is provided for each criterion provided in the checklist.
Wolf Creek Generating Station D-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Step 1 Create GIS Base Map 1 Step 2 Gather Census Block and Demographic Data for Study Area Il Step 3 Conduct Kickoff Meeting with Stakeholders Step 4 Field Survey of Roadways within Study Area Il Step S Conduct Telephone Survey and Develop Trip Generation Characteristics Step 6 Create and Calibrate Link-Node A Network Step 7 Deelop Evacuation Regisancenarios 4Step 8 Create and Debug DYNEV II Input Stream
_ _ _ Step 9 I. Execute DYNEV II for Prototype Evacuation Case Figure D-1. Flow Diagram of Activities Wolf Creek Generating Station D-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
APPENDIX E Special Facility Data
E. SPECIAL FACILITY DATA The following tables list population information, as of July 2012, for special facilities that are located within the WCGS EPZ. Special facilities are defined as schools, medical care facilities, and correctional facilities. Transient population data is included in the tables for lodging facilities. Employment data is included in the tables for major employers. The location of the facility is defined by its straight-line distance (miles) and direction (magnetic bearing) from the center point of the plant. Maps of each school, medical facility, correctional facility, lodging facility, and major employer are also provided.
Wolf Creek Generating Station E-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Table E-1. Schools within the EPZ NE-2 I 11.8 I NNE I Waverlv Grade School 607 N Dane St Waverlv 785-733-2551 I 102 14 NE-2 11.8 NNE Waverly Junior & High School 607 Pearson Ave Waverly 785-733-2561 116 17 SE-3 10.9 SSE LeRoy Elementary School 1013 Main St LeRoy 620-964-2208 55 7 SE-3 10.9 SSE Southern Coffey County High School 1010 Main St LeRoy 620-836-2151 70 18 SW-1 4.3 SW Burlington Elementary School 706 Niagara St Burlington 620-364-8882 323 92 SW-1 3.9 SW Burlington High School 830 Cross St Burlington 620-364-8672 262 62 SW-1 3.7 SW Burlington Middle School 720 Cross St Burlington 620-364-2156 270 52 SW-1 4.0 SW Rainbow's End 414 Miami St C(ýey Burlington Cont ubooB 620-364-5633 1 /
12 Wolf Creek Generating Station E-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Table E-2. Medical Facilities within the EPZ I NE-2 I I 11.4 I NNE II Sunset Manor 1 128 S Pearson Ave II Waverlv 1785-733-27441
-- I
- 42 1 32 1 6 I 4-26 I
&
0 ,4 1
I SW-1 I 3.7 1 SW I Coffey Health System 1801 N4th St I
I Burlington I
1 620-364-2121 I
I 36 I 14 1 8 1 3 13 1 SW-2 3.7 SW Life Care Center 7 77 62 12 50 0 CAj I A I rL... A .
A 1 36 22 22 0 0 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Wolf Creek Generating Station E-3 E-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Table E-3. Major Employers within the EPZ I CCL I I 0.0 1 -
I I Co.uI I
1550 Oxen Ln IBurlington 1620-362-8831 1 700 1 50% 350 1 I
County 110 S6th St Burlington 620-364-2191 150 30%
Wolf Creek Generating Station E-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Table E-4. Lodging Facilities within the EPZ II SW-1 1 3.4 I SW II Countrv Haven Inn I 207 Cross St I I Burlington
-
II 620-364-8260 II 48 I 12 I Note: Based on discussions with the Coffey County EMO, all people visiting the Coffey County Lake and the John Redmond Reservoir are local residents who have already been counted in the permanent resident population discussed in Section 3.1.
Wolf Creek Generating Station E-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Table E-5. Correctional Facilities within the EPZ Wolf Creek Generating Station E-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Figure E-1. Schools within the EPZ Wolf Creek Generating Station E-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Figure E-2. Medical Facilities within the EPZ E-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Wolf Creek Generating Station E-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Figure E-3. Major Employers within the EPZ KLD Engineering, P.C.
Wolf Creek Generating Station E-9 E-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Figure E-4. Lodging Facilities within the EPZ Wolf Creek Generating Station E-1O KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Figure E-5. Correctional Facilities within the EPZ KLD Engineering, P.C.
Wolf Creek Generating Station E-11 E-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
APPENDIX F Telephone Survey
F. TELEPHONE SURVEY F.1 Introduction The development of evacuation time estimates for the WCGS EPZ requires the identification of travel patterns, car ownership and household size of the population within the EPZ.
Demographic information can be obtained from Census data. The use of this data has several limitations when applied to emergency planning. First, the Census data do not encompass the range of information needed to identify the time required for preliminary activities (mobilization) that must be undertaken prior to evacuating the area. Secondly, Census data do not contain attitudinal responses needed from the population of the EPZ and consequently may not accurately represent the anticipated behavioral characteristics of the evacuating populace.
These concerns are addressed by conducting a telephone survey of a representative sample of the EPZ population. The survey is designed to elicit information from the public concerning family demographics and estimates of response times to well defined events. The design of the survey includes a limited number of questions of the form "What would you do if ...?" and other questions regarding activities with which the respondent is familiar ("How long does it take you to ...?")
Wolf Creek Generating Station F-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
F.2 Survey Instrument and Sampling Plan Attachment A presents the final survey instrument used in this study. A draft of the instrument was submitted to stakeholders for comment. Comments were received and the survey instrument was modified accordingly, prior to conducting the survey.
Following the completion of the instrument, a sampling plan was developed. A sample size of approximately 300 completed survey forms yields results with a sampling error of +/-5.4% at the 95% confidence level. The sample must be drawn from the EPZ population. Consequently, a list of zip codes in the EPZ was developed using GIS software. This list is shown in Table F-1. Along with each zip code, an estimate of the population and number of households in each area was determined by overlaying Census data and the EPZ boundary, again using GIS software. The proportional number of desired completed survey interviews for each area was identified, as shown in Table F-1. Note that the average household size computed in Table F-i was an estimate for sampling purposes and was not used in the ETE study.
The completed survey adhered to the sampling plan.
Table F-1. WCGS Telephone Survey Sampling Plan
. Co. "" (", , . . . p.l 66093 579 171 13 66839 4,056 1,671 126 66852 586 248 19 66854 804 340 26 66856 1,633 649 49 66857 956 391 29 66871 1,308 516 39 Average Household Size: 2.49 Wolf Creek Generating Station F-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
F.3 Survey Results The results of the survey fall into two categories. First, the household demographics of the area can be identified. Demographic information includes such factors as household size, automobile ownership, and automobile availability. The distributions of the time to perform certain pre-evacuation activities are the second category of survey results. These data are processed to develop the trip generation distributions used in the evacuation modeling effort, as discussed in Section 5.
A review of the survey instrument reveals that several questions have a "don't know" (DK) or "refused" entry for a response. It is accepted practice in conducting surveys of this type to accept the answers of a respondent who offers a DK response for a few questions or who refuses to answer a few questions. To address the issue of occasional DK/refused responses from a large sample, the practice is to assume that the distribution of these responses is the same as the underlying distribution of the positive responses. In effect, the DK/refused responses are ignored and the distributions are based upon the positive data that is acquired.
F.3.1 Household Demographic Results Household Size Figure F-1 presents the distribution of household size within the EPZ. The average household contains 2.23 people. The estimated household size (2.49 persons) used to determine the survey sample (Table F-i) was drawn from Census data. The difference in these numbers is 10.4%, which is greater than the sampling error of 5.4%. The 2010 Census data indicates that the average household size in Coffey County is 2.38 persons. The estimate of 2.23 people obtained from the telephone survey is used for the household size in this study because it provides a greater number of evacuating resident vehicles, resulting in a more conservative ETE.
Wolf Creek Generating Station F-3 KLD Engineering. P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Wolf Creek Household Size 60%
1A 50%
.5 0 40%
30%
o
'I-0 20%
10%
0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Household Size Figure F-1. Household Size in the EPZ Automobile Ownership The average number of automobiles available per household in the EPZ is 2.32. It should be noted that approximately 1.7 percent of households do not have access to an automobile. The distribution of automobile ownership is presented in Figure F-2. Figure F-3 and Figure F-4 present the automobile availability by household size. Note that the vast majority of households without access to a car are single person households. As expected, nearly all households of 2 or more people have access to at least one vehicle.
Wolf Creek Vehicle Availability 50%
40%
U$
0
-C 30%
0 X 20%
0 10%
0%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9+
Number of Vehicles Figure F-2. Household Vehicle Availability Wolf Creek Generating Station F-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Distribution of Vehicles by HH Size 1-4 Person Households 1Person *2 People 13 People M4 People 100%
80%
0 60%
0 x 40%
20%
0% "AIJ , A 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9+
Vehicles Figure F-3. Vehicle Availability - 1 to 4 Person Households Distribution of Vehicles by HH Size 5-7 Person Households S5 People *6 People *7 People 100%
0n 80% I
- 0 60%
0 40%
20% j M I 0%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9+
Vehicles Figure F-4. Vehicle Availability - 5 to 7 Person Households Wolf Creek Generating Station F-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Ridesharing 83% of the households surveyed who do not own a vehicle responded that they would share a ride with a neighbor, relative, or friend if a car was not available to them when advised to evacuate in the event of an emergency. Note, however, that only those households with no access to a vehicle - 6 total out of the sample size of 300 - answered this question. Thus, the results are not statistically significant. As such, the NRC recommendation of 50% ridesharing is used throughout this study. Figure F-5 presents this response.
Wolf Creek Rideshare with Neighbor/Friend 100%
80%
0 60%
InI 0
.- 40%
0 20%
0%
Yes No Figure F-5. Household Ridesharing Preference Wolf Creek Generating Station F-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Commuters Figure F-6 presents the distribution of the number of commuters in each household.
Commuters are defined as household members who travel to work or college on a daily basis.
The data shows an average of 0.84 commuters in each household in the EPZ, and 51% of households have at least one commuter.
Wolf Creek Commuters 50%
40%
320%
0 4x20%
0 10%
0% J__ I 0 1 2 3 4+
Number of Commuters Figure F-6. Commuters in Households in the EPZ Wolf Creek Generating Station F-7 F-7 KID Engineering, P.c.
KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Commuter Travel Modes Figure F-7 presents the mode of travel that commuters use on a daily basis. The vast majority of commuters use their private automobiles to travel to work. The data shows an average of 1.06 employees per vehicle, assuming 2 people per vehicle - on average - for carpools.
I- Wolf Creek Travel Mode to Work 100%
91.4%
80%
60%
E 0 40%
20%
3.3% D5.3%
0.0%
0%
Bus Walk/Bike Drive Alone Carpool (2+)
Mode of Tiravel Figure F-7. Modes of Travel in the EPZ F.3.2 Evacuation Response Several questions were asked to gauge the population's response to an emergency. These are now discussed:
"How many of the vehicles would your household use during an evacuation?"The response is shown in Figure F-8. On average, evacuating households would use 1.35 vehicles.
"Would yourfamily await the return of other family members prior to evacuating the area?"
Of the survey participants who responded, 44 percent said they would await the return of other family members before evacuating and 56 percent indicated that they would not await the return of other family members.
"Ifyou had a household pet, would you take your pet with you if you were asked to evacuate the area?" Based on the responses to the survey, 26 percent of households do not have a family pet. Of the households with pets, 80 percent of them indicated that they would take their pets with them, as shown in Figure F-9.
Wolf Creek Generating Station F-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Vehicles Used for Evacuation 100%
80%
60%
0 a-0-A 40%
0
"=
20%
0%
0 1 2 3 Number of Vehicles 4 5 Figure F-8. Number of Vehicles Used for Evacuation Households Evacuating with Pets 100%
80%
0A 60%
0 0 40%
20%
0% I Yes No Figure F-9. Households Evacuating with Pets Wolf Creek Generating Station F-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
"Emergency officials advise you to take shelter at home in an emergency. Would you?" This question is designed to elicit information regarding compliance with instructions to shelter in place. The results indicate that 79 percent of households who are advised to shelter in place would do so; the remaining 21 percent would choose to evacuate the area. Note the baseline ETE study assumes 20 percent of households will not comply with the shelter advisory, as per Section 2.5.2 of NUREG/CR-7002. Thus, the data obtained above is in good agreement with the federal guidance.
"Emergency officials advise you to take shelter at home now in an emergency and possibly evacuate later while people in other areas are advised to evacuate now. Would you?" This question is designed to elicit information specifically related to the possibility of a staged evacuation. That is, asking a population to shelter in place now and then to evacuate after a specified period of time. Results indicate that 77 percent of households would follow instructions and delay the start of evacuation until so advised, while the balance of 23 percent would choose to begin evacuating immediately.
F.3.3 Time Distribution Results The survey asked several questions about the amount of time it takes to perform certain pre-evacuation activities. These activities involve actions taken by residents during the course of their day-to-day lives. Thus, the answers fall within the realm of the responder's experience.
The mobilization distributions provided below are the result of having applied the analysis described in Section 5.4.1 on the component activities of the mobilization.
Wolf Creek Generating Station F-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
"How long does it take the commuter to complete preparationfor leaving work?" Figure F-10 presents the cumulative distribution; in all cases, the activity is completed by 90 minutes.
Ninety-three percent can leave within 30 minutes.
Time to Prepare to Leave Work 100%
80%
E E 60%
0 40%
20%
0%
0 15 30 45 60 75 90 Preparation Time (min)
Figure F-10. lime Required to Prepare to Leave Work/School "How long would it take the commuter to travel home?" Figure F-11 presents the work to home travel time for the EPZ. About 94 percent of commuters can arrive home within 60 minutes of leaving work; all within 120 minutes.
Work to Home Travel 100%
80%
60%
E 0
40%
20%
0%
0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 Travel Time (min)
Figure F-l1. Work to Home Travel Time Wolf Creek Generating Station F-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
"How long would it take the family to pack clothing, secure the house, and load the car?"
Figure F-12 presents the time required to prepare for leaving on an evacuation trip. In many ways this activity mimics a family's preparation for a short holiday or weekend away from home. Hence, the responses represent the experience of the responder in performing similar activities.
The distribution shown in Figure F-12 has a long "tail." About 91 percent of households can be ready to leave home within 60 minutes; the remaining households require up to an additional 75 minutes.
Time to Prepare to Leave Home 100%
- A 80%
0
.C 60%
0 40%
0 20%
0%
0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 135 Preparation Time (min)
Figure F-12. Time to Prepare Home for Evacuation Wolf Creek Generating Station F-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
"How long would it take you to clear 6 to 8 inches of snow from your driveway?" During adverse, snowy weather conditions, an additional activity must be performed before residents can depart on the evacuation trip. Although snow scenarios assume that the roads and highways have been plowed and are passable (albeit at lower speeds and capacities), it may be necessary to clear a private driveway prior to leaving the home so that the vehicle can access the street. Figure F-13 presents the time distribution for removing 6 to 8 inches of snow from a driveway. The time distribution for clearing the driveway has a long tail; about 91 percent of driveways are passable within 60 minutes. The last driveway is cleared three hours after the start of this activity. Note that those respondents (59%) who answered that they would not take time to clear their driveway were assumed to be ready immediately at the start of this activity. Essentially they would drive through the snow on the driveway to access the roadway and begin their evacuation trip.
Time to Remove Snow from Driveway 100%
80%
4A 60%
0
'-r 0 40%
90 20%
0%
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 Time (min)
Figure F-13. Time to Clear Driveway of 6V-8" of Snow F.4 Conclusions The telephone survey provides valuable, relevant data associated with the EPZ population, which have been used to quantify demographics specific to the EPZ, and "mobilization time" which can influence evacuation time estimates.
KLD Engineering, p.c.
Wolf Creek Generating Station F-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
ATTACH MENT A Telephone Survey Instrument Wolf Creek Generating Station F-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Telephone Survey Instrument Hello, my name is and I'm working on a survey for COL. 1 Unused your county emergency management office to identify local COL. 2 Unused behavior during emergency situations. This information will be COL. 3 Unused used for emergency planning and will be shared with local officials to enhance emergency response plans in your area for all hazards; COL. 4 Unused emergency planning for some hazards may require evacuation. COL. 5 Unused Your responses will greatly contribute to local emergency Sex COL. 8 preparedness. I will not ask for your name or any personal 1 Male information, and the survey will take less than 10 minutes to complete. 2 Female INTERVIEWER: ASK TO SPEAK TO THE HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD OR THE SPOUSE OF THE HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD.
(Terminate call if not a residence.)
DO NOT ASK:
1A. Record area code. To Be Determined COL. 9-11 lB. Record exchange number. To Be Determined COL. 12-14
- 2. What is your home zip code? COL. 15-19 3A. In total, how many running cars, or other COL. 20 SKIP TO vehicles are usually available to the household? 1 ONE Q. 4 (DO NOT READ ANSWERS) 2 TWO Q. 4 3 THREE Q.4 4 FOUR Q. 4 5 FIVE Q. 4 6 SIX Q. 4 7 SEVEN Q. 4 8 EIGHT Q. 4 9 NINE OR MORE Q. 4 0 ZERO (NONE) Q. 3B X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED Q. 3B 3B. In an emergency, could you get a ride out of the COL. 21 area with a neighbor or friend? 1 YES 2 NO X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED
- 4. How many people usually live in this household? COL. 22 COL. 23 (DO NOT READ ANSWERS) 1 ONE 0 TEN 2 TWO 1 ELEVEN 3 THREE 2 TWELVE 4 FOUR 3 THIRTEEN 5 FIVE 4 FOURTEEN 6 SIX 5 FIFTEEN Wolf Creek Generating Station F-1S KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
7 SEVEN 6 SIXTEEN 8 EIGHT 7 SEVENTEEN 9 NINE 8 EIGHTEEN 9 NINETEEN OR MORE X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED
- 5. How many adults in the household travel to a job, COL. 24 SKIP TO or to college on a daily basis? 0 ZERO Q. 9 1 ONE Q. 6 2 TWO Q. 6 3 THREE Q. 6 4 FOUR OR MORE Q. 6 5 DON'T KNOW/REFUSED Q. 9 INTERVIEWER: For each person identified in Question 5, ask Questions 6, 7, and 8.
- 6. Thinking about Person #1, how does that person usually travel to work or college? (REPEAT QUESTION FOR EACH PERSON)
Person #1 Person #2 Person #3 Person #4 COL. 25 COL. 26 COL. 27 COL. 28 Walk/Bicycle 3 3 3 3 Drive Alone 4 4 4 4 Carpool-2 or more people 5 5 5 5 Don't know/Refused 6 6 6 6
- 7. How much time on average, would it take Person #1 to travel home from work or college? (REPEAT QUESTION FOR EACH PERSON) (DO NOT READ ANSWERS)
PERSON #1 PERSON #2 COL. 29 COL. 30 COL. 31 COL. 32 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56- 1 HOUR 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56-1 HOUR OVER 1 HOUR, BUT OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 LESS THAN 1 HOUR MINUTES 15 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 5 21-25 MINUTES 5 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 5 21-25 MINUTES 5 MINUTES AND 1 30 MINUTES HOUR 30 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 6 26-30 MINUTES 6 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 6 26-30 MINUTES 6 MINUTES AND 1 45 MINUTES HOUR 45 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 7 31-35 MINUTES 7 MINUTES AND 2 7 31-35 MINUTES 7 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS HOURS Wolf Creek Generating Station F-16 KLD Engineering. P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
OVER 2 HOURS OVER 2 HOURS 8 36-40 MINUTES (SPECIFY __ 8 36-40 MINUTES (SPECIFY __
9 41-45 MINUTES 9 9 41-45 MINUTES 9 0 0 DON'T KNOW DON'T KNOW
/REFUSED /REFUSED PERSON #3 PERSON #4 COL. 33 COL. 34 COL. 35 COL. 36 1 5MINUTESORLESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56 - 1 HOUR 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56- 1 HOUR OVER 1 HOUR, BUT OVER 1 HOUR, BUT LESS 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 4 16-20 MINUTES THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 5 21-25 MINUTES 5 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 5 21-25 MINUTES 5 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 30 MINUTES MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 6 26-30 MINUTES 6 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 6 26-30 MINUTES 6 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 45 MINUTES MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 7 31-35 MINUTES 7 MINUTES AND 2 7 31-35 MINUTES MINUTES AND 2 HOURS HOURS OVER 2 HOURS OVER 2 HOURS (SPECIFY 8 36-40 MINUTES 8 36-40 MINUTES 8 ____________)
(SPECIFY __ )
9 41-45 MINUTES 9 9 41-45 MINUTES 9 0 0 DON'T KNOW
/REFUSED X DON'T KNOW /REFUSED
- 8. Approximately how much time does it take Person #1 to complete preparation for leaving work or college prior to starting the trip home? (REPEAT QUESTION FOR EACH PERSON) (DO NOT READ ANSWERS)
PERSON #1 PERSON #2 COL. 37 COL. 38 COL. 39 COL. 40 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56 - 1 HOUR 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56 - 1 HOUR OVER 1 HOUR, BUT OVER 1 HOUR, BUT LESS 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 4 16-20 MINUTES THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 5 21-25 MINUTES 5 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 5 21-25 MINUTES 5 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 30 MINUTES MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 6 26-30 MINUTES 6 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 6 26-30 MINUTES 6 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 45 MINUTES MINUTES 7 31-35 MINUTES 7 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 7 31-35 MINUTES 7 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 Wolf Creek Generating Station F-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
MINUTES AND 2 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS HOURS OVER 2 HOURS 2 HOURS (SPECIFY 8 36-40 MINUTES 8 36-40 MINUTES 8 OVER
__)
(SPECIFY __ .)
9 41-45 MINUTES 9 9 41-45 MINUTES 9 0 0 X DON'T KNOW /REFUSED X DON'T KNOW /REFUSED PERSON #3 PERSON #4 COL. 41 COL. 42 COL. 43 COL. 44 1 5MINUTESORLESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56 - I HOUR 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56- 1 HOUR OVER 1 HOUR, BUT OVER 1 HOUR, BUT LESS 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 4 16-20 MINUTES THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 5 21-25 MINUTES 5 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 5 21-25 MINUTES 5 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 30 MINUTES MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 6 26-30 MINUTES 6 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 6 26-30 MINUTES 6 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 45 MINUTES MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 7 31-35 MINUTES 7 MINUTES AND 2 7 31-35 MINUTES MINUTES AND 2 HOURS HOURS OVER 2 HOURS OVER 2 HOURS (SPECIFY 8 36-40 MINUTES (SPECIFY __ .) 8 36-40 MINUTES 8 DON'TKNOW/REFU__SE) 9 41-45 MINUTES 9 9 41-45 MINUTES 9 0 0 x DON'T KNOW /REFUSED x DON'T KNOW /REFUSED
- 9. If you were advised by local authorities to evacuate, how much time would it take the household to pack clothing, medications, secure the house, load the car, and complete preparations prior to evacuating the area? (DO NOT READ ANSWERS)
COL. 45 COL. 46 1 LESS THAN 15 MINUTES 1 3 HOURS TO 3 HOURS 15 MINUTES 2 15-30 MINUTES 2 3 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 3 HOURS 30 MINUTES 3 31-45 MINUTES 3 3 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 3 HOURS 45 MINUTES 4 46 MINUTES- 1 HOUR 4 3 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 4 HOURS 5 1 HOUR TO 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES 5 4 HOURS TO 4 HOURS 15 MINUTES 6 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES TO 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES 6 4 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 4 HOURS 30 MINUTES 7 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES TO 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES 7 4 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 4 HOURS 45 MINUTES 8 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 8 4 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 5 HOURS 9 2 HOURS TO 2 HOURS 15 MINUTES 9 5 HOURS TO 5 HOURS 30 MINUTES 0 2 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 30 MINUTES 0 5 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 6 HOURS Wolf Creek Generating Station F-18 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
X 2 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 45 MINUTES X OVER 6 HOURS (SPECIFY __ )
Y 2 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 3 HOURS Z WILL NOT EVACUATE (Optionalresponse) COL. 47 1 DON'T KNOW/REFUSED
- 10. If there is 4 - 6" of snow on your driveway or curb, would you need to shovel out to evacuate? If yes, how much time, on average, would it take you to clear the 4 - 6" of snow to move the car from the driveway or curb to begin the evacuation trip? Assume the roads are passable. (DO NOT READ RESPONSES)'
COL. 48 COL. 49 1 LESS THAN 15 MINUTES 1 OVER 3 HOURS (SPECIFY __
2 15-30 MINUTES 2 DON'T KNOW/REFUSED 3 31-45 MINUTES 4 46 MINUTES- 1 HOUR 5 1 HOUR TO 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES 6 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES TO 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES 7 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES TO 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES 8 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 9 2 HOURS TO 2 HOURS 15 MINUTES 0 2 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 30 MINUTES X 2 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 45 MINUTES Y 2 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 3 HOURS Z NO, WILL NOT SHOVEL OUT
- 11. Please choose one of the following (READ COL. 50 ANSWERS): 1 A A. I would await the return of household persons to evacuate together. 2 B B. I would evacuate independently and meet X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED other household members later.
- 12. How many vehicles would your household use during an evacuation? (DO NOT READ ANSWERS)
COL. 51 1 ONE 2 TWO 3 THREE 4 FOUR 5 FIVE 6 SIX 7 SEVEN 8 EIGHT 9 NINE OR MORE 0 ZERO (NONE)
X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED Wolf Creek Generating Station F-19 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
13A. Emergency officials advise you to take shelter at home in an COL. 52 emergency. Would you: (READ ANSWERS) 1 A A. SHELTER IN PLACE; or 2 B B. EVACUATE X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED 13B. Emergency officials advise you to take shelter at home now in COL. 53 an emergency and possibly evacuate later while people in 1 A other areas are advised to evacuate now. Would you: (READ 2 B ANSWERS)
X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED or A. SHELTER IN PLACE; B. EVACUATE
- 14. If you have a household pet, would you take your pet with you if you were asked to evacuate the area? (READ ANSWERS)
COL. 54 1 DON'T HAVE A PET 2 YES 3 NO X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED Thank you very much.
(TELEPHONE NUMBER CALLED)
IF REQUESTED:
For additional information, contact Coffey County Emergency Management Office during normal business hours.
H County EMO Phone Coffey (620) 364-2721 Wolf Creek Generating Station F-20 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. I
APPENDIX G Traffic Management Plan
G. TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT PLAN NUREG/CR-7002 indicates that the existing TCPs and ACPs identified by the offsite agencies should be used in the evacuation simulation modeling. The traffic and access control plans for the EPZ were provided by each county.
These plans were reviewed and the TCPs were modeled accordingly.
G.1 Traffic Control Points As discussed in Section 9, traffic control points at intersections (which are controlled) are modeled as actuated signals. If an intersection has a pre-timed signal, stop, or yield control, and the intersection is identified as a traffic control point, the control type was changed to an actuated signal in the DYNEV II system. Table K-2 provides the control type and node number for those nodes which are controlled. If the existing control was changed due to the point being a TCP, the control type is indicated as "Traffic Control Point" in Table K-2.
G.2 Access Control Points It is assumed that ACPs will be established within 120 minutes of the advisory to evacuate to discourage through travelers from using major through routes which traverse the EPZ. As discussed in Section 3.6, external traffic was considered on 1-35 which traverses the study area in this analysis. The generation of the external trips on 1-35 exists for the entire evacuation as there are no ACPs on this roadway.
Figure G-1 maps the potential TCPs and ACPs according to the Coffee County Emergency Plan This study did not identify any additional intersections that should be identified as TCPs or ACPs.
Wolf Creek Generating Station G-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Figure G-1. Traffic and Access Control Points for the WCGS Site Wolf Creek Generating Station G-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
APPENDIX H Evacuation Regions
H EVACUATION REGIONS This appendix presents the evacuation percentages for each Evacuation Region (Table H-i) and maps of all Evacuation Regions. The percentages presented in Table H-1 are based on the methodology discussed in assumption 5 of Section 2.2 and shown in Figure 2-1.
Note the baseline ETE study assumes 20 percent of households will not comply with the shelter advisory, as per Section 2.5.2 of NUREG/CR-7002.
Wolf Creek Generating Station H-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Table H-1. Percent of Sub-Area Population Evacuating for Each Region Wind Direction From Subzones Region (Degrees): CCL ICTR NI N-2 NE.1 NE,2 NE.3 E-I E-2 SE-2 SE*3 SE'4 S1 S-2 SW.2 W-1 W-2 IJRR NWW. NW-2 R04 354-6 20% 20% 20% 20% 0% 20% 20% 20% 20%
ROS 7-16 2
20% 20%I 20%
20%
20%
20% L20%
20% 20%
20%~ 20%
20%
20% 20% 20%
20%
20%
20%
20% 20%20 20% 20% 20% 20%0 20%
R06 17-27 20% 20% 20% 20% 120% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
R07 28-67 20%I202%20% 20%20% % 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
ROB 68-73 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
20% 20% I 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
20%
R09 74-96 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% I 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
20%
RIO 97-106 % 20%20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
R11 107-162 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 1 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
20% 20% 0% 20%
R12 163-173 20% 20% 220% 20% 20%I 20%0% 20% 20% 20% 20%
20% 20% 20%
R13 174-196 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
20% m tt1tt.t1t4+ 1 20% I-I-- 20%
20%
R14 197-207 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
%20% 20% 20%
R15 208-248 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 120% 20% 20%
2% 20% 20%
R16 249-275 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
2% 20% 20%
R17 276-281 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
20%
R18 282-298 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%j 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
20%
R19 299-353 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
Wolf Creek Generating Station H-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Wind Direction FromSubzones Region (Degrees): cc N-1 N-2 NE*1 NE-2 NE-3 E-I E-2 SES2 5E3 SEA S-1 S-2 SWI W-1 W2 NW1 iW2 R2020% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
R2120% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
R2220% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% % 20% 20% 20% 20% 2 R23 28-38 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 2 % 20% 20% 2 R2420% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
R2520% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
R2620% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
R2720% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
R28 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
R29 20%20 % 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
R30 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
R31 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
R3220% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
R33 174-186 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
R34 187-196 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
R3520% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
R3620% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
R3720% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
R38 20% 20% 0% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
R3920%420%520%20%20%2 0% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
R4020% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
R41 282-292 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
R42 293-298 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
R43 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
R44 3162-331 20 2 R45 33220% 0% 20% 20%
R46 344-353 0 20% 20%
Wolf Creek Generating Station H-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Staged Evacuation Mi Ie Rid iusEvacu ate s, then Evacuate Downwind to 5 Mi Ie%
Subzones Region C... m I
- I
- - - -. - -.
NWind Direction From:.
CCoI CL I N.1 I N-2 NEI1 NE.2 SE-3 SE.4 SI S'2 SW.1SW2 NE.3 E1' ii E-E2 20% !
_sE'2 20%0 20% I 20% 20%
R47 5-Mile Ring 20% 20% 20% 20%
R48 354-6 20% 20% 1 20% 20% 20% 120% 20% 20% 20%
M49 7-16 20% 220%20% 20% . 20% 20%. 20% I 20% 20% 20% I 20% 20%
RSO 17-27 20% 20% 20% I 20% 20% 20% I 20% I 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
20% I 20%
RS1 28-67 20% 20% 20% I 20% 20% I 20% I 20% I 20% 20% 20%
20% M20 20%
R52 68-73 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% I 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
R53 74-96 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
R54 97-106 220% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
Rs5 107- 162 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
R56 163-173 20% 20% 20%
2% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
R57 174 -196 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
RS8 197-207 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 1 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
R59 208-248 20% 20% 20% 20%I20% 20% 20% 20% I20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
R60 249-275 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
R61 276-281 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% ,20% 20% 2%220% 20%
R62 282-298 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% .20% 20%2%20 20%I 20% 20% 20%
299-353 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% M 20% 20%
-- __ -- m __ *-.--i Subzone(s) Shelter-in-Place Wolf Creek Generating Station H-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Figure H-1. Region R01 Wolf Creek Generating Station H-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
I Figure H-2. Region R02 KID Engineering, P.C.
Wolf Creek Generating Station H-6 H-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.
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Figure H-3. Region R03 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Wolf Creek Generating Station H-7 H-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.
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Figure H-4. Region R04 Wolf Creek Generating Station H-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.
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Figure H-5. Region ROS Wolf Creek Generating Station H-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.
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Figure H-6. Region R06 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Wolf Creek Generating Station H-b H-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.
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Figure H-7. Region R07 Wolf Creek Generating Station KLD Engineering, P.C.
H-li H-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
I Figure H-8. Region R08 Wolf Creek Generating Station H-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.
KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Figure H-9. Region R09 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Wolf Creek Generating Station H43 H-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Figure H-1O. Region RIO KLD Engineering, P.C.
Wolf Creek Generating Station H-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.
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Figure H-11. Region R11 Wolf Creek Generating Station H-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.
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Figure H-12. Region R12 Wolf Creek Generating Station H-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Figure H-13. Region R13 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Wolf Creek Generating Station H-17 H-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.
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Figure H-14. Region R14 Wolf Creek Generating Station H-18 KLD Engineering, P.C.
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I Figure H-15. Region R15 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Wolf Creek Generating Station H-19 H-19 KLD Engineering, P.C.
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Figure H-16. Region R16 Wolf Creek Generating Station H-20 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Figure H-17. Region R17 Wolf Creek Generating Station H-21 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Figure H-18. Region R18 Wolf Creek Generating Station H-22 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Figure H-19. Region R19 KLO Engineering, P.C.
Wolf Creek Generating Station H-23 H-23 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Figure H-20. Region R20 Wolf Creek Generating Station H-24 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Figure H-21. Region R21 Wolf Creek Generating Station KLD Engineering, P.C.
H-25 H-25 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Figure H-22. Region R22 Wolf Creek Generating Station H-26 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Figure H-23. Region R23 Wolf Creek Generating Station H-27 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Figure H-24. Region R24 Wolf Creek Generating Station H-28 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Figure H-25. Region R25 Wolf Creek Generating Station H-29 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Figure H-26. Region R26 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Wolf Creek Generating Station H-30 H-30 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Figure H-27. Region R27 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Wolf Creek Generating Station H-31 H-31 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Figure H-28. Region R28 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Wolf Creek Generating Station H-32 H-32 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. I
Figure H-29. Region R29 Wolf Creek Generating Station H-33 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Figure H-30. Region R30 Wolf Creek Generating Station H-34 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Figure H-31. Region R31 Wolf Creek Generating Station H-35 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. I
Figure H-32. Region R32 Wolf Creek Generating Station H-36 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Figure H-33. Region R33 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Wolf Creek Generating Station H-37 H-37 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Figure H-34. Region R34 Wolf Creek Generating Station H-38 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Figure H-35. Region R35 Wolf Creek Generating Station H-39 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Figure H-36. Region R36 Wolf Creek Generating Station H-40 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Figure H-37. Region R37 Wolf Creek Generating Station H-41 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Figure H-38. Region R38 Wolf Creek Generating Station H-42 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Figure H-39. Region R39 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Wolf Creek Generating Station H-43 H -43 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Figure H-40. Region R40 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Wolf Creek Generating Station H-44 H -44 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Figure H-41. Region R41 Wolf Creek Generating Station H-45 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Figure H-42. Region R42 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Wolf Creek Generating Station H-46 H -46 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. I
Figure H-43. Region R43 Wolf Creek Generating Station H-47 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
I Figure H-44. Region R44 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Wolf Creek Generating Station H-48 H-48 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Figure H-45. Region R45 Wolf Creek Generating Station H-49 KLD Engineering, P.C.
KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Figure H-46. Region R46 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Wolf Creek Generating Station H-SO H-50 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Figure H-47. Region R47 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Wolf Creek Generating Station H-51 H-51 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Figure H-48. Region R48 Wolf Creek Generating Station KLD Engineering, P.C.
H-52 H-52 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
Figure H-49. Region R49 Wolf Creek Generating Station H-53 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
r Figure H-50. Region R50 KID Engineering, P.C.
Wolf Creek Generating Station H-54 H-54 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1