ML18059A956

Us NRC PRA Use and Development: 2018 Update

ML18059A956
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Issue date:	03/07/2018
From:	Nathan Siu NRC/RES/DRA/PRB
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US NRC PRA Use and Development:

2018 Update 19th Annual WGRISK Meeting Nathan Siu Division of Risk Analysis Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission March 7, 2018

NRC Regulatory Process and Components

[3,7]

PSA Use and Development Report Chapters

[3-7] [2-9] [3,7]

2. Framework and Environment

3. Numerical Safety Criteria

4. Status and Scope of Studies

5. Methodology and Data

6. Notable Results

7. Applications and Decision

[3-7] Making

8. Future Developments and Research

9. International Activities Regulatory Environment [2,9]

2

Regulatory Environment the agency focuses on continuous improvement of its activities and processes and demonstrates a commitment to effectiveness, efficiency, and innovation in all its regulatory activities.

- NUREG-1614, Vol. 7

• Trends include

- Staff

- Budget

- Information and IT

• Solutions include

- RIDM, PRA realism

- Leveraging resources

- Transformation and Innovation Initiatives 3

Risk-Informed Regulations and Guidance

• RG 1.174, Rev. 3 (2018)

- Fuzzified boundaries

- Defense-in-depth

• NUREG-1855, Rev. 1 (2017)

- Risk aggregation

• ASME/ANS PRA Standard (ongoing)

- External hazards

• Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) - basis for probabilistic approach 4

Risk-Informed Licensing, Oversight, and Operational Experience

• Growing number of applications

• Routine activities

- Reactor Oversight Program (ROP)

- Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) Program

- Generic Issues Program

• Post-Fukushima activities

- Implementation of Orders

- Seismic and flooding reevaluations

• Challenges, initiatives

- New methods

- PRA realism (fire, ROP, FLEX)

- SSC classification (10 CFR 50.69)

- Tornado missiles 5

Technical Support Ongoing Looking Forward

• SPAR models

• Advanced PRA methods (e.g., dynamic PRA)

• Industry trends

• Expanded scope (organizational factors?

• Integrated Site PRA Level 0/enterprise risk?)

• Fire research (e.g., HEAF)

• Knowledge engineering (e.g., Big Data, AI) and PRA

• Flooding PRA (PFHA+)

• HRA (IDHEAS, SACADA)

• RIDM (Risk Aggregation)

Knowledge Management

• Seminars (e.g., WASH-1400, UCS, Safety Goals)

• NUREG/KMs

• Training, mentoring, etc.

6

Some Recent General Resources

• Strategic Plan: Fiscal Years 2018-2022, NUREG-1614, Vol. 7, 2017.

• 2017-2018 Information Digest, NUREG-1350, Vol. 29, 2017.

• NRCs High-Value Datasets, https://www.nrc.gov/data/

• Commission Meetings, Agendas, Slides, Transcripts, Meeting SRMs, and Full Written Explanation for Closed Meetings, https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/commission/tr/

• Japan Lessons Learned, https://www.nrc.gov/reactors/operating/ops-experience/japan-dashboard.html

• Research Activities: FY 2015-FY2017, NUREG-1925, Vol. 3, 2016.

• Research Activities, https://www.nrc.gov/about-nrc/regulatory/research.html

• Review and Evaluation of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission Safety Research Program, NUREG-1635, Vol. 12, 2016.

• Biennial Review and Evaluation of the NRC Safety Research Program, USNRC Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards, February 26, 2018. (ML18057B139)

• NRC Webcast Portal, https://video.nrc.gov/#archives-main 7

Some Recent PRA and RIDM Resources

• Risk-Informed Activities, https://www.nrc.gov/about-nrc/regulatory/risk-informed/rpp.html

• An Approach for Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Risk-informed Decisions on Plant-Specific Changes to the Licensing Basis, Regulatory Guide 1.174, Rev. 3, 2018.

• Guidance on the Treatment of Uncertainties Associated with PRAs in Risk-Informed Decisionmaking, NUREG-1855, Rev. 1, 2017.

• U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Accident Sequence Precursor Program: 2016 Annual Report, 2017. ML17153A366 8