ML18059A956

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Us NRC PRA Use and Development: 2018 Update
ML18059A956
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Issue date: 03/07/2018
From: Nathan Siu
NRC/RES/DRA/PRB
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Download: ML18059A956 (8)


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US NRC PRA Use and Development:

2018 Update 19th Annual WGRISK Meeting Nathan Siu Division of Risk Analysis Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission March 7, 2018

NRC Regulatory Process and Components

[3,7]

PSA Use and Development Report Chapters

[3-7] [2-9] [3,7]

2. Framework and Environment
3. Numerical Safety Criteria
4. Status and Scope of Studies
5. Methodology and Data
6. Notable Results
7. Applications and Decision

[3-7] Making

8. Future Developments and Research
9. International Activities Regulatory Environment [2,9]

2

Regulatory Environment the agency focuses on continuous improvement of its activities and processes and demonstrates a commitment to effectiveness, efficiency, and innovation in all its regulatory activities.

- NUREG-1614, Vol. 7

  • Trends include

- Staff

- Budget

- Information and IT

  • Solutions include

- RIDM, PRA realism

- Leveraging resources

- Transformation and Innovation Initiatives 3

Risk-Informed Regulations and Guidance

- Fuzzified boundaries

- Defense-in-depth

- Risk aggregation

  • ASME/ANS PRA Standard (ongoing)

- External hazards

  • Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) - basis for probabilistic approach 4

Risk-Informed Licensing, Oversight, and Operational Experience

  • Growing number of applications
  • Routine activities

- Reactor Oversight Program (ROP)

- Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) Program

- Generic Issues Program

  • Post-Fukushima activities

- Implementation of Orders

- Seismic and flooding reevaluations

  • Challenges, initiatives

- New methods

- PRA realism (fire, ROP, FLEX)

- SSC classification (10 CFR 50.69)

- Tornado missiles 5

Technical Support Ongoing Looking Forward

  • Advanced PRA methods (e.g., dynamic PRA)
  • Industry trends
  • Expanded scope (organizational factors?
  • Integrated Site PRA Level 0/enterprise risk?)
  • Fire research (e.g., HEAF)
  • Knowledge engineering (e.g., Big Data, AI) and PRA
  • Flooding PRA (PFHA+)
  • RIDM (Risk Aggregation)

Knowledge Management

  • Seminars (e.g., WASH-1400, UCS, Safety Goals)
  • NUREG/KMs
  • Training, mentoring, etc.

6

Some Recent General Resources

  • Strategic Plan: Fiscal Years 2018-2022, NUREG-1614, Vol. 7, 2017.
  • 2017-2018 Information Digest, NUREG-1350, Vol. 29, 2017.
  • Research Activities: FY 2015-FY2017, NUREG-1925, Vol. 3, 2016.
  • Review and Evaluation of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission Safety Research Program, NUREG-1635, Vol. 12, 2016.

Some Recent PRA and RIDM Resources

  • Guidance on the Treatment of Uncertainties Associated with PRAs in Risk-Informed Decisionmaking, NUREG-1855, Rev. 1, 2017.
  • U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Accident Sequence Precursor Program: 2016 Annual Report, 2017. ML17153A366 8