ML19270D575

M190925: State of Reliability

ML19270D575
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Issue date:	09/25/2019
From:	NRC/OCM
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M190925
Download: ML19270D575 (18)

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NERC NORTH AMERICAN ELECTRIC RELIABILITY CORPORATION

• High Reliability in 2018, No Non-Weather Category 3, 4, or 5 events

• Hurricane Michael and Florence Category 3

• Extreme weather events continue to be leading contributor to the largest generation and distribution outages

• Better than expected performance from Texas generation fleet helped meet 2018 summer peak demand; reliability risk in 2019 due to continued capacity deficit

• Continued downward misoperation rate trend

• Improving or stable frequency response performance in all interconnections

• Emerging reliability challenges identified as more inverter-based generation is added 2 RELIABILITY I ACCOUNTABILITY

2018 Actual Energy 99.92°/o Time with no epe1ator,-c:011bolled The ERO Enterpri~ : NERC and 7 Regional Entities 1,028,629 MW load shedding 2018 Sc.mmer Pea~ Capacity t!!ES......rn~ ~ -

• 469,842 mi Total Transmission Circuit MIies > 100W 0 TEXAS RE ~ WECC Category 3, 4. or 5 Events (non-weather1'81ated) 15 Reliability Coordinators 4 Interconnections 5,816 Number of Conuentlonal C..181atlng Units >20MW 184 Transmission Operators 991 Generator Owners 73 Balancing Authorities 398 Distribution Providers Bui~ Power System Situation Awareness Inputs and Products in 2018 ---

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2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

• Category 1

• Category 2 Category 3

• Category 4

• Category 5 Category 3

• Design/Engineering

• Management/Organization

• Equipment/Material Category 4

• Training

• Other

• Individual Performance

• Communication Category s 4 RELIABILITY I ACCOUNTABILITY

2014-2018 Event Analysis Trends

• Management/ Organizat ion

• Design/ Engineering 856 Event Reports

• Equipment/Material

• Other

• Communication

• Individual Perfo rmance 378 Identified Root Causes

• Tra ining

• No Causes Found

• Overall Configuration 1%

116 MW 2014-2018 Identified Root Causes Overall (Five-Year) Average Load Loss of (Processed to-date)

Non-Weather Driven Events with Load Loss Number of N on-Weather Events with Tota l Category 1 Events by Year and Load Loss and Annual Average Load Loss Subcategory 40 300 200

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- Total ~ Annual Average Load Loss (MW) s

6 RELIABILITY I ACCOUNTABILITY NERC Reliability Indicator - Transmission NORTH AMERICAN ELECTRIC RELIAGILITY CORPORATION Related Events Results in Loss of Load 20 350 -0 300 ..,

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- Count of Events -e- Average of Demand Interrupted (MW) Firm 7 RELIABILITY I ACCOUNTABILITY

NERC Reliability Indicator - Protection System NORTH AMERICAN ELECTRIC RELIABILITY CORPORATION M*isoperat*ion Rate 14% 13.29%

12.0%

12%

10.0%

10%

8.0%

8%

6.0%

6%

4.0%

4%

2.0%

2%

0.0%

Q4 2013 - Q3 Q4 2014 - Q3 Q4 2015 - Q3 Q4 2016 - Q3 Q4 2017 - Q3 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 0%

FRCC MRO NPCC RF SERC Texas RE WECC Annual Protection System Five-Year Protection System Misoperation Rate Misoperation Rate by Region Q4 2013 through Q3 2018 8 RELIABILITY I ACCOUNTABILITY

Tranmission Loss 30%

Load Loss 60%

Generation Loss 10%

9 RELIABILITY I ACCOUNTABILITY

100

. Ten Highest Stress Days with 2018 marked

~/2 Winter Storm

9/.14 Hurricane Florence 11/15 Winter Storm I

10 116 5 II)

• 1/2 Severe Cold Weather

• xtU

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- 2012 - 2014 - 2015 - 2016 2017 -2018 0.1 Descending day of the year 10 RELIABILITY I ACCOUNTABILITY

NERC Severity Risk Index (SRI) -

NORTH AMERICAN ELECTRIC RELIAB I LITY CORPORAT I ON Cumulative 750 2012 700 650 600 550 500 VI c..

450

..0 ex::

400 V1 Q) 350

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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

- 2012 - 2014 - 2015 - 2016 - 2017 2018 11 RELIABILITY I ACCOUNTABILITY

NERC BPS Planning and Adapting to a NORTH AMERICAN ELECTRIC RELIABILITY CORPORATION Changing Resource Mix NERCAlert 1

• Concerns with Susceptible to Erroneous Inverter cease output during i nve rte r-ba sed Frequency Calculations? abnormal voltages?

resource persist and mitigation strategies

• Yti a No a YES

• 'o are being developed by the NERC Inverter-Based Resources Task Force. NERC Alert II

• NERC Alert helped Use Momentary 1.8GW Cannot be fully mitigated inform industry of the Total BPS Solar Cessation Can be mitigated vu Inera bi lities through settings change associated with I Can be fully momentary cessation. 3.9 GW 5.2 GW mitigated Dontt Use Momentary Cessation 12 RELIABILITY I ACCOUNTABILITY

1 - Continue improving their ability to understand, model, and plan for a system with a significantly different resource mix. Priority should be given to:

Frequency response under low inertia conditions Contributions of inverter-based resources to essential reliability services 11 Increasing protection system and restoration complexities with increased inverter-based resources Resource adequacy with increasing energy constraints 2 - Develop comparative metrics to understand the different dimensions of resilience during extreme events and system performance changes over time.

3 - Better understand and share information on cyber and physical security threats and mitigate the risks through a variety of approaches, including resilient system design, consequence-informed planning and operation, and practicing response and recovery processes.

13 RELIABILITY I ACCOUNTABILITY

NERC NORTH AMERICAN ELECTRIC RELIABILITY CORPORATION

• May 2019: NERC launched a Task Force to identify reliability concerns associated with EMPs and potential methods for promoting resilience

• The Task Force advises NERC, regulators, Regional Entities, and industry stakeholders to establish a common understanding of the scope, priority, and goals for the development of next-steps to address resilience to HEMP events 15 RELIABILITY I ACCOUNTABILITY

Strategic Recommendations Technical Committee Work Standard Drafting Team (if applicable)

Phase 3 16 RELIABILITY I ACCOUNTABILITY

• The Task Force has broken up the topic of EMP as it relates to the utility industry in the following categories:

• Policy- What needs to be clearly defined by industry and federal government

• Research - What research is needed to prudently inform utilities that need to make decisions

• Vulnerability Assessments - How does the utility industry take the policy and research to understand its vulnerability

• Mitigation Guidelines - Fundamental suggestions and guidelines on prudent mitigation strategies

• Response and Recovery- Based on the vulnerability assessments and any mitigation guidelines, for any impacted facilities, how does a utility respond and recover 17 RELIABILITY I ACCOUNTABILITY

wers 18 RELIABILITY I ACCOUNTABILITY