ML19270D575
| ML19270D575 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Issue date: | 09/25/2019 |
| From: | NRC/OCM |
| To: | |
| Shared Package | |
| ML19270D537 | List: |
| References | |
| M190925 | |
| Download: ML19270D575 (18) | |
Text
NERC NORTH AMERICAN ELECTRIC RELIABILITY CORPORATION
- High Reliability in 2018, No Non-Weather Category 3, 4, or 5 events
- Hurricane Michael and Florence Category 3
- Extreme weather events continue to be leading contributor to the largest generation and distribution outages
- Better than expected performance from Texas generation fleet helped meet 2018 summer peak demand; reliability risk in 2019 due to continued capacity deficit
- Continued downward misoperation rate trend
- Improving or stable frequency response performance in all interconnections
- Emerging reliability challenges identified as more inverter-based generation is added 2
RELIABILITY I ACCOUNTABILITY
2018 Actual Energy 1,028,629 MW 2018 Sc.mmer Pea~ Capacity 469,842 mi Total Transmission Circuit MIies > 100W 5,816 Number of Conuentlonal C..181atlng Units > 20MW 99.92°/o Time with no epe1ator,-c:011bolled load shedding 0
Category 3, 4. or 5 Events (non-weather1'81ated)
The ERO Enterpri~ : NERC and 7 Regional Entities t!!ES......rn~ ~-*
TEXASRE 15 Reliability Coordinators 184 Transmission Operators 73 Balancing Authorities
~ WECC 4
Interconnections 991 Generator Owners 398 Distribution Providers Bui~ Power System Situation Awareness Inputs 3
and Products in 2018 v' -
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200 180 Category 1 160
~ 140 C
(I) 120 LU 0 100 ai Category 2
.0 80 E
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2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Category 3
- Category 1
- Category 2 Category 3
- Category 4
- Category 5
- Design/Engineering
- Management/Organization Category 4
- Equipment/Material
- Training
- Other
- Individual Performance
- Communication Category s 4
RELIABILITY I ACCOUNTABILITY
s 2014-2018 Event Analysis Trends 856 Event Reports 378 Identified Root Causes 116 MW Overall (Five-Year) Average Load Loss of Non-Weather Driven Events with Load Loss Number of Non-Weather Events with Load Loss and Annual Average Load Loss 40
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34 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total
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Annual Average Load Loss (MW)
- Management/ Organization
- Design/ Engineering
- Equipment/Material
- Other
- Communication
- Individual Performance
- Training
- No Causes Found
- Overall Configuration 2014-2018 Identified Root Causes (Processed to-date)
Total Category 1 Events by Year and Subcategory 300 200
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160 Q) >
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6 RELIABILITY I ACCOUNTABILITY
NERC NORTH AMERICAN ELECTRIC RELIAGILITY CORPORATION 20
~ 15 C:
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UJ 0
10 C:
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0 Reliability Indicator - Transmission Related Events Results in Loss of Load 350 -0 300 Q)..,
- a.
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Count of Events
-e-Average of Demand Interrupted (MW) Firm 7
RELIABILITY I ACCOUNTABILITY
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
NERC Reliability Indicator - Protection System NORTH AMERICAN ELECTRIC M*isoperat*ion Rate RELIABILITY CORPORATION 8
Q4 2013 - Q3 Q4 2014 - Q3 Q4 2015 - Q3 Q4 2016 - Q3 Q4 2017 - Q3 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Annual Protection System Misoperation Rate 14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
13.29%
FRCC MRO NPCC RF SERC Texas RE WECC Five-Year Protection System Misoperation Rate by Region Q4 2013 through Q3 2018 RELIABILITY I ACCOUNTABILITY
9 Load Loss 60%
Tranmission Loss 30%
Generation Loss 10%
RELIABILITY I ACCOUNTABILITY
100 10 II) *x tU
~
...I a:
V, 1
2012 2014 0.1 10 Ten Highest Stress Days with 2018 marked
~/2 Winter Storm 9/.14 Hurricane Florence 11/15 Winter Storm I
116 5
'
- 1/2 Severe Cold Weather 2015 2016 2017
-2018 Descending day of the year RELIABILITY I ACCOUNTABILITY
NERC NORTH AMERICAN ELECTRIC RELIAB ILITY CORPORAT I ON 750 700 650 600 550 500 VI 450 c..
..0 400 ex::
V1 350 Q)
-~
300
+"'
ro 250 E
200 u
150 100 so 0
Jan Feb 2012 11 Severity Risk Index (SRI) -
Cumulative 2012 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2014 -
2015 -
2016 -
2017 2018 RELIABILITY I ACCOUNTABILITY
NERC NORTH AMERICAN ELECTRIC RELIABILITY CORPORATION
- Concerns with i nve rte r-ba sed resource persist and mitigation strategies are being developed by the NERC Inverter-Based Resources Task Force.
- NERC Alert helped inform industry of the vu I nera bi lities associated with momentary cessation.
12 BPS Planning and Adapting to a Changing Resource Mix NERCAlert 1 Susceptible to Erroneous Frequency Calculations?
Inverter cease output during abnormal voltages?
Total BPS Solar
- Yti a No NERC Alert II Use Momentary Cessation I
3.9 GW Dontt Use Momentary Cessation
' 1.8GW 5.2 GW a YES
- 'o Cannot be fully mitigated Can be mitigated through settings change Can be fully mitigated RELIABILITY I ACCOUNTABILITY
1 - Continue improving their ability to understand, model, and plan for a system with a significantly different resource mix. Priority should be given to:
Frequency response under low inertia conditions Contributions of inverter-based resources to essential reliability services 11 Increasing protection system and restoration complexities with increased inverter-based resources Resource adequacy with increasing energy constraints 2 - Develop comparative metrics to understand the different dimensions of resilience during extreme events and system performance changes over time.
3 - Better understand and share information on cyber and physical security threats and mitigate the risks through a variety of approaches, including resilient system design, consequence-informed planning and operation, and practicing response and recovery processes.
13 RELIABILITY I ACCOUNTABILITY
NERC NORTH AMERICAN ELECTRIC RELIABILITY CORPORATION
- May 2019: NERC launched a Task Force to identify reliability concerns associated with EMPs and potential methods for promoting resilience
- The Task Force advises NERC, regulators, Regional Entities, and industry stakeholders to establish a common understanding of the scope, priority, and goals for the development of next-steps to address resilience to HEMP events 15 RELIABILITY I ACCOUNTABILITY
Strategic Recommendations Technical Committee Work Standard Drafting Team (if applicable)
Phase 3 16 RELIABILITY I ACCOUNTABILITY
- The Task Force has broken up the topic of EMP as it relates to the utility industry in the following categories:
17
- Policy-What needs to be clearly defined by industry and federal government
- Research - What research is needed to prudently inform utilities that need to make decisions
- Vulnerability Assessments - How does the utility industry take the policy and research to understand its vulnerability
- Mitigation Guidelines - Fundamental suggestions and guidelines on prudent mitigation strategies
- Response and Recovery-Based on the vulnerability assessments and any mitigation guidelines, for any impacted facilities, how does a utility respond and recover RELIABILITY I ACCOUNTABILITY
wers 18 RELIABILITY I ACCOUNTABILITY