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PFHA-2021-1A-2 of 4 (Kanney,Nrc) Nrc_Pfha_Research_Overview
ML21064A418
Person / Time
Issue date: 02/25/2021
From: Thomas Aird, Mark Fuhrmann, Joseph Kanney, Sarah Tabatabai, Elena Yegorova
NRC/RES/DRA/FRB
To:
Aird, Tom - 301 415-2442
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ML210645A395 List:
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Download: ML21064A418 (13)
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NRC Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Research Program Overview Joseph Kanney*, Thomas Aird, Mark Fuhrmann, Elena Yegorova, Sarah Tabatabai Fire and External Hazards Analysis Branch Division of Risk Analysis Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research 6th Annual PFHA Research Workshop NRC HQ, Rockville, MD February 22 - 25, 2021 1

Outline

  • Objectives
  • Key Challenges
  • Research Approach
  • Progess
  • Next Steps 2

PFHA Research Objectives

  • Develop resources, tools and selected guidance to:

- Address significant gap in the technical basis for guidance for probabilistic assessment of external hazards

  • Deterministic: flooding

- Support risk-informed licensing and oversight activities involving assessment of flooding hazards and potential consequences

  • Licensing and oversight in operating reactor program
  • Design basis flood hazard assessments for new facilities

- Readiness for licensing of advanced reactors 3

Key Challenges

  • Hazard Curve Development

- Range of annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs)

  • Moderately rare to extreme floods

- Multiple flooding mechanisms

  • Coincident and correlated mechanisms

- Uncertainty characterization and Magnitude estimation

  • Aleatory (e.g. storm recurrence rates)
  • Epistemic (e.g. model structure, parameters)
  • Fragility Curve Development Failure Probability

- Information on reliability of flood protection features and procedures is sparse

- Cliff-edge effects Load Intensity 4

Phased Research Approach Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Technical Application Pilot Projects Inform & update Guidance Basis Projects

  • Phase 1 - Technical Basis Research: ~Complete!

- Climate and precipitation

- Mechanistic, statistical and probabilistic modeling of riverine and coastal flooding processes

- Reliability of flood protection features and procedures

- Modeling Frameworks

- Natural hazard information digest (NHID)

  • Phase 2 - Pilot Studies: In Progress

- Local Intense Precipitation (LIP) Flooding

- Riverine Flooding

- Coastal Flooding

  • Phase 3 - Develop Guidance: In Progress 5

Climate and Precipitation

  • Potential Climate Change Impacts to NPPs (PNNL)

- CONUS: PNNL-24868 available at https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1259942

- Southeast US: PNNL-26226 Rev 1 available at https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1593340

- Midwest US: PNNL-27452 Rev1 available at https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1524249

- Northeast US: PNNL-29079 available at https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1605280

  • Warm Season Precipitation Analysis (USACE/ERDC)

- Report ERDC/CHL TR-19-14 available at https://erdc-library.erdc.dren.mil/jspui/handle/11681/33883

  • Cool Season Precipitation Analysis (USACE/ERDC)

- Report ERDC/CHL TR-20-7 available at http://dx.doi.org/10.21079/11681/36415

  • Precipitation Frequency Estimates in Orographic Regions (USBR)

- NUREG-CR report in publication

  • Application of Point Precipitation Frequency Estimates to Watersheds (ORNL)

- NUREG/CR-7271 available at https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/nuregs/contract/cr7171/index.html

  • Numerical Modeling of Intense Precipitation Processes (UC Davis/USGS)

- Peer-reviewed publications: Mure-Ravaud, et al. (2019a,b) https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969719306734

- https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969719306291

- NUREG-CR report in publication

  • Convection-Permitting Modeling for Intense Precipitation Processes (NCAR)

- In Progress (completion expected in FY21) 6

Riverine and Coastal Flooding

  • Application of State-of-Practice Flood Frequency Analysis Methods and Tools (USGS)

- USGS Scientific Investigation Report (SIR) 2017-5038 available at https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/sir20175038

- USGS SIR 2020-5065 available at https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/sir20205065

  • Technical Basis for Extending Frequency Analysis Beyond Current Consensus Limits (USBR)

- NUREG/CR in review

  • Eastern US Riverine Flood Geomorphology Feasibility Study (USGS)

- USGS SIR 2017-5052 available at https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/sir20175052

  • Eastern US Riverine Flood Geomorphology Comprehensive Study (USGS)

- USGS SIR in publication

  • Framework for Technical Review of Paleoflood Information (USGS)

- USGS Techniques and Methods Report in publication

  • Quantifying Uncertainties in Probabilistic Storm Surge Models (USACE)

- Report ERDC/CHL SR-19-1 available at https://erdc-library.erdc.dren.mil/xmlui/handle/11681/32293

- Report ERDC/CHL TR-19-4 available at https://apps.dtic.mil/docs/citations/AD1073835

- ERDC/CHL report in review

- NUEG/CR report in preparation 7

Reliability of Flood Protection

  • Effects of Environmental Factors on Manual Actions for Flood Protection and Mitigation at Nuclear Power Plants (PNNL)

- NUREG/CR-7256 available at https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/nuregs/contract/cr7256/

- Report ORNL/TM-2019/1069 available at https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1592163/

  • Performance of Flood Penetration Seals at NPPs (Fire Risk Management, Inc.)

- NUREG report in review

  • Erosion Processes in Embankment Dams (USBR)

- NRC Research Information Letter (RIL) in publication

  • Flood Barrier Testing Strategies (INL/ISU)

- In progress, completion in March, 2021 8

Modeling Frameworks & NHID

  • Modeling Plant Response to Flooding Events (INL)

- NUREG/CR report in publishing

  • Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Framework Development (USACE)

- RIL in preparation

  • Structured Hazard Assessment Committee Process for Flooding (SHAC-F) (PNNL & USACE)

- NUREG/CR in review

  • Methods for Estimating Joint Probabilities of Coincident and Correlated Flooding Mechanisms for Nuclear Power Plant Flood Hazard Assessments (ORNL & UMD)

- In progress (completion expected FY21)

- Task 1 &2 ORNL Report TM-2020/1447 available at https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1637939/

  • Development of Natural Hazard Information Digests for Operating NPP Sites (INL)

- Completed (continue with updates/maintenance) 9

Phase 2: Pilot Studies Objective: Synthesize results from technical basis research

- Multiple flooding mechanism contribution to hazard curves

- Quantify key aleatory variabilities and epistemic uncertainties

- In Progress; completion expected in FY21

  • Riverine Flooding PFHA Pilot (USACE/HEC)

- In Progress; completion expected in FY22

  • Coastal Flooding Pilot PFHA Pilot (USACE/ERDC)

- In Progress; completion expected in FY22 10

Phase 3: PFHA Guidance

  • FY 21-22: Develop draft guidance documents based on:

- Technical basis research

- Pilot projects

- User office needs

- Stakeholder & public Interactions

  • FY22: Publish draft guidance for public comment
  • FY23: Finalize guidance 11

Past Workshops

  • Proceedings of 1st-4th Annual NRC PFHA Research Workshops

- NRC RIL 2020-01 available at https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/research-info-letters/2020/index.html

  • Proceedings of 5th Annual NRC PFHA Research Workshop

- RIL 2021-01 available at https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/research-info-letters/2021/index.html 12

Questions?

Contact:

joseph.kanney@nrc.gov 13

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