ML21064A418
| ML21064A418 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Issue date: | 02/25/2021 |
| From: | Thomas Aird, Mark Fuhrmann, Joseph Kanney, Sarah Tabatabai, Elena Yegorova NRC/RES/DRA/FRB |
| To: | |
| Aird, Tom - 301 415-2442 | |
| Shared Package | |
| ML210645A395 | List:
|
| References | |
| Download: ML21064A418 (13) | |
Text
1 NRC Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Research Program Overview 6th Annual PFHA Research Workshop NRC HQ, Rockville, MD February 22 - 25, 2021 Joseph Kanney*, Thomas Aird, Mark Fuhrmann, Elena Yegorova, Sarah Tabatabai Fire and External Hazards Analysis Branch Division of Risk Analysis Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research
Outline
- Objectives
- Key Challenges
- Research Approach
- Progess
- Next Steps 2
PFHA Research Objectives
- Develop resources, tools and selected guidance to:
- Address significant gap in the technical basis for guidance for probabilistic assessment of external hazards
- Probabilistic: seismic, high winds
- Deterministic: flooding
- Support risk-informed licensing and oversight activities involving assessment of flooding hazards and potential consequences
- Licensing and oversight in operating reactor program
- Design basis flood hazard assessments for new facilities
- Readiness for licensing of advanced reactors 3
Key Challenges
- Hazard Curve Development
- Range of annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs)
- Moderately rare to extreme floods
- Multiple flooding mechanisms
- Coincident and correlated mechanisms
- Uncertainty characterization and estimation
- Aleatory (e.g. storm recurrence rates)
- Epistemic (e.g. model structure, parameters)
- Fragility Curve Development
- Information on reliability of flood protection features and procedures is sparse
- Cliff-edge effects 4
Magnitude Load Intensity Failure Probability
Phased Research Approach
- Phase 1 - Technical Basis Research: ~Complete!
- Climate and precipitation
- Mechanistic, statistical and probabilistic modeling of riverine and coastal flooding processes
- Reliability of flood protection features and procedures
- Modeling Frameworks
- Natural hazard information digest (NHID)
- Phase 2 - Pilot Studies: In Progress
- Local Intense Precipitation (LIP) Flooding
- Riverine Flooding
- Coastal Flooding
- Phase 3 - Develop Guidance: In Progress 5
Phase 1 Technical Basis Projects Phase 3 Guidance Phase 2 Pilot Projects Application Inform & update
Climate and Precipitation Potential Climate Change Impacts to NPPs (PNNL)
CONUS: PNNL-24868 available at https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1259942 Southeast US: PNNL-26226 Rev 1 available at https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1593340 Midwest US: PNNL-27452 Rev1 available at https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1524249 Northeast US: PNNL-29079 available at https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1605280 Warm Season Precipitation Analysis (USACE/ERDC)
Report ERDC/CHL TR-19-14 available at https://erdc-library.erdc.dren.mil/jspui/handle/11681/33883 Cool Season Precipitation Analysis (USACE/ERDC)
Report ERDC/CHL TR-20-7 available at http://dx.doi.org/10.21079/11681/36415 Precipitation Frequency Estimates in Orographic Regions (USBR)
NUREG-CR report in publication Application of Point Precipitation Frequency Estimates to Watersheds (ORNL)
NUREG/CR-7271 available at https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/nuregs/contract/cr7171/index.html Numerical Modeling of Intense Precipitation Processes (UC Davis/USGS)
Peer-reviewed publications: Mure-Ravaud, et al. (2019a,b) https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969719306734 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969719306291 NUREG-CR report in publication Convection-Permitting Modeling for Intense Precipitation Processes (NCAR)
In Progress (completion expected in FY21) 6
Riverine and Coastal Flooding Application of State-of-Practice Flood Frequency Analysis Methods and Tools (USGS)
USGS Scientific Investigation Report (SIR) 2017-5038 available at https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/sir20175038 USGS SIR 2020-5065 available at https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/sir20205065 Technical Basis for Extending Frequency Analysis Beyond Current Consensus Limits (USBR)
NUREG/CR in review Eastern US Riverine Flood Geomorphology Feasibility Study (USGS)
- USGS SIR 2017-5052 available at https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/sir20175052 Eastern US Riverine Flood Geomorphology Comprehensive Study (USGS)
- USGS SIR in publication Framework for Technical Review of Paleoflood Information (USGS)
- USGS Techniques and Methods Report in publication Quantifying Uncertainties in Probabilistic Storm Surge Models (USACE)
- Report ERDC/CHL SR-19-1 available at https://erdc-library.erdc.dren.mil/xmlui/handle/11681/32293
- Report ERDC/CHL TR-19-4 available at https://apps.dtic.mil/docs/citations/AD1073835
- ERDC/CHL report in review
- NUEG/CR report in preparation 7
- Effects of Environmental Factors on Manual Actions for Flood Protection and Mitigation at Nuclear Power Plants (PNNL)
- NUREG/CR-7256 available at https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/nuregs/contract/cr7256/
- Critical Review of the State of Practice in Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Dams (ORNL, UMD)
- Report ORNL/TM-2019/1069 available at https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1592163/
- Performance of Flood Penetration Seals at NPPs (Fire Risk Management, Inc.)
- NUREG report in review
- Erosion Processes in Embankment Dams (USBR)
- NRC Research Information Letter (RIL) in publication
- Flood Barrier Testing Strategies (INL/ISU)
- In progress, completion in March, 2021 8
Reliability of Flood Protection
Modeling Frameworks & NHID Modeling Plant Response to Flooding Events (INL)
- NUREG/CR report in publishing Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Framework Development (USACE)
- RIL in preparation Structured Hazard Assessment Committee Process for Flooding (SHAC-F) (PNNL & USACE)
- NUREG/CR in review Methods for Estimating Joint Probabilities of Coincident and Correlated Flooding Mechanisms for Nuclear Power Plant Flood Hazard Assessments (ORNL & UMD)
- In progress (completion expected FY21)
- Task 1 &2 ORNL Report TM-2020/1447 available at https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1637939/
Development of Natural Hazard Information Digests for Operating NPP Sites (INL)
- Completed (continue with updates/maintenance) 9
Objective: Synthesize results from technical basis research
- Multiple flooding mechanism contribution to hazard curves
- Quantify key aleatory variabilities and epistemic uncertainties
- In Progress; completion expected in FY21
- Riverine Flooding PFHA Pilot (USACE/HEC)
- In Progress; completion expected in FY22
- Coastal Flooding Pilot PFHA Pilot (USACE/ERDC)
- In Progress; completion expected in FY22 10 Phase 2: Pilot Studies
FY 21-22: Develop draft guidance documents based on:
- Technical basis research
- Pilot projects
- User office needs
- Stakeholder & public Interactions FY22: Publish draft guidance for public comment FY23: Finalize guidance 11 Phase 3: PFHA Guidance
- NRC RIL 2020-01 available at https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/research-info-letters/2020/index.html
- Proceedings of 5th Annual NRC PFHA Research Workshop
- RIL 2021-01 available at https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/research-info-letters/2021/index.html 12 Past Workshops
13 Questions?
Contact:
joseph.kanney@nrc.gov